Science.gov

Sample records for change impacts adaptation

  1. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  2. Climate Change in Central Taiwan: Impact and Adaptive Capacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Chih-Chao; Chang, Liang-Cheng; Tsai, Chan-Ming

    2013-04-01

    This study aims to evaluate the spatial vulnerability distribution of water resources and propose the adaptive strategies for centeral Taiwan. The main tasks of this study are future water demand estimation, Rainfall trend analysis, climate change impact analysis and adaptive strategy proposing. Future water demand estimation considers the impact of GDP and temperature on domestic use water demand. MK Test, MWP Test and KW Test are used to analyze the variation trend of precipitation, intensity and drought day. The water allocation simulation model build by Vensim are used to analyze climate change impact. Based on impact analysis result, multi-criteria analysis is used to optimize optimal adaptive strategies combination. For Miaoli and Nantou, the furture demand (2031) can be fulfilled under Tiahuahu reservoir and Niaozueitan artificial lake is finished. It is not necessary to propose adaptive strategy. For Taichung, the optimal adaptive combinations for A1B worse case are Water Saving and Futian Domestic Wastewater Treatment Plant. For Changhua, the optimal adaptive strategy for A1B worse case is seawater desalinization. For Yunlin, the optimal adaptive combinations for A1B worse case are Water Saving and tap water pipe replacement.

  3. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its

  4. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  5. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

  6. Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Brown, Katrina; Marshall, Nadine; O'Brien, Karen

    2013-02-01

    Society's response to every dimension of global climate change is mediated by culture. We analyse new research across the social sciences to show that climate change threatens cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods that include the material and lived aspects of culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place. We find, furthermore, that there are important cultural dimensions to how societies respond and adapt to climate-related risks. We demonstrate how culture mediates changes in the environment and changes in societies, and we elucidate shortcomings in contemporary adaptation policy.

  7. Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery T.; Brown, Helen L.; Katscherian, Dianne

    2011-04-15

    Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location. Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to

  8. Adapting to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vimont, D.; Liebl, D.

    2012-12-01

    The mission of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI; http://www.wicci.wisc.edu) is to assess the impacts of climate change on Wisconsin's natural, human, and built environments; and to assist in developing, recommending, and implementing climate adaptation strategies in Wisconsin. WICCI originated in 2007 as a partnership between the University of Wisconsin Nelson Institute and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and has since grown to include numerous other state, public, and private institutions. In 2011, WICCI released its First Assessment Report, which documents the efforts of over 200 individuals around the state in assessing vulnerability and estimating the risk that regional climate change poses to Wisconsin. The success of WICCI as an organization can be traced to its existence as a partnership between academic and state institutions, and as a boundary organization that catalyzes cross-disciplinary efforts between science and policy. WICCI's organizational structure and its past success at assessing climate impacts in Wisconsin will be briefly discussed. As WICCI moves into its second phase, it is increasing its emphasis on the second part of its mission: development, and implementation of adaptation strategies. Towards these goals WICCI has expanded its organizational structure to include a Communications and Outreach Committee that further ensures a necessary two-way communication of information between stakeholders / decision makers, and scientific efforts. WICCI is also increasing its focus on place-based efforts that include climate change information as one part of an integrated effort at sustainable development. The talk will include a discussion of current outreach and education efforts, as well as future directions for WICCI efforts.

  9. The environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fezzi, Carlo; Harwood, Amii R.; Lovett, Andrew A.; Bateman, Ian J.

    2015-03-01

    Encouraging adaptation is an essential aspect of the policy response to climate change. Adaptation seeks to reduce the harmful consequences and harness any beneficial opportunities arising from the changing climate. However, given that human activities are the main cause of environmental transformations worldwide, it follows that adaptation itself also has the potential to generate further pressures, creating new threats for both local and global ecosystems. From this perspective, policies designed to encourage adaptation may conflict with regulation aimed at preserving or enhancing environmental quality. This aspect of adaptation has received relatively little consideration in either policy design or academic debate. To highlight this issue, we analyse the trade-offs between two fundamental ecosystem services that will be impacted by climate change: provisioning services derived from agriculture and regulating services in the form of freshwater quality. Results indicate that climate adaptation in the farming sector will generate fundamental changes in river water quality. In some areas, policies that encourage adaptation are expected to be in conflict with existing regulations aimed at improving freshwater ecosystems. These findings illustrate the importance of anticipating the wider impacts of human adaptation to climate change when designing environmental policies.

  10. Adapting to and Coping with the Threat and Impacts of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reser, Joseph P.; Swim, Janet K.

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to…

  11. Climate change and biodiversity conservation: impacts, adaptation strategies and future research directions

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Kai MA

    2009-01-01

    The impacts of climate change pose fundamental challenges for current approaches to biodiversity conservation. Changing temperature and precipitation regimes will interact with existing drivers such as habitat loss to influence species distributions despite their protection within reserve boundaries. In this report we summarize a suite of current adaptation proposals for conservation, and highlight some key issues to be resolved. PMID:20948670

  12. Changing monsoon patterns, snow and glacial melt, its impacts and adaptation options in northern India: synthesis.

    PubMed

    Moors, Eddy J; Stoffel, Markus

    2013-12-01

    This paper gives a synthesis of this special issue on the sensitivity to climate change of the main bio-physical processes in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas. It also describes the impacts on the water resources with a special focus on the Ganges. Consequences of changes in water resources and possible adaptation measures for different sectors are discussed. PMID:24290143

  13. Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

  14. Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

    PubMed

    Chrétien, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment-a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health-this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD. PMID:27081888

  15. Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    PubMed

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-05-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change. PMID:23618474

  16. Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Solomon Islands: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    PubMed Central

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands’ responses to climate change. PMID:25168977

  17. Health impacts of climate change in the Solomon Islands: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    PubMed

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-09-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands' responses to climate change. PMID:25168977

  18. The state of climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation research: strengthening knowledge base and community

    SciTech Connect

    Wilbanks, Thomas J; Rosenzweig, Dr. Cynthia

    2010-01-01

    It has taken about 35 years for scientists to bring the global climate change issue to the attention of the world s people and their leaders. With the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference of December 2009, it was hoped that the issue identification phase would segue at last into the solution phase. However, the outcome of COP15 shows that interdisciplinary work on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability is still critically needed to advance the development of the solution phase.

  19. Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options in Vulnerable Agro-Landscapes in East-Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manful, D.; Tscherning, K.; Kersebaum, K.; Dietz, J.; Dietrich, O.; Gomani, C.; Böhm, H.; Büchner, M.; Lischeid, G.,; Ojoyi, M.,

    2009-04-01

    Climate change poses a risk to the livelihoods of large populations in the developing world, especially in Africa. In East Africa, climate change is expected to affect the spatial distribution and quantity of precipitation. The proposed project will assess aspects of climate impacts and adaptation options in Tanzania. The project will attempt to quantify (1) projected impacts including: variability in temperature, rainfall, flooding and drought (2) the affect changes in 1. will have on specific sectors namely agriculture (food security), water resources and ecosystem services. The cumulative effects of diminished surface and ground water flow on agricultural production coupled with increasing demand for food due to increase in human pressure will also be evaluated. Expected outputs of the project include (1) downscaled climate change scenarios for different IPCC emission scenarios (2) model based estimations of climate change impacts on hydrological cycle and assessment of land use options (3) scenarios of sustainable livelihoods and resilient agro-landscapes under climate change (4) assessment of adaptive practices and criteria for best adaptation practices. The presentation will focus on novel approaches that focus on the use of agro-ecosystem models to predict local and regional impacts of climate variability on food with specific needs of the end-user factored into model set-up process. In other words, model configurations adapted to the information needs of a specific end-user or audience are evaluated. The perception of risk within different end-users (small scale farmer versus a regional or state level policy maker) are explicitly taken into consideration with the overarching aim of maximizing the impact of the results obtained from computer-based simulations.

  20. Adapting to health impacts of climate change: a study of UNFCCC Annex I parties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lesnikowski, A. C.; Ford, J. D.; Berrang-Ford, L.; Paterson, J. A.; Barrera, M.; Heymann, S. J.

    2011-10-01

    Adapting to the health effects of climate change is one of the key challenges facing public health this century. Our knowledge of progress on adaptation, however, remains in its infancy. Using the Fifth National Communications of Annex I parties to the UNFCCC, 1912 initiatives are systematically identified and analyzed. 80% of the actions identified consist of groundwork (i.e. preparatory) action, with only 20% constituting tangible adaptations. No health vulnerability was recognized by all 38 Annex I countries. Furthermore, while all initiatives affect at least one health vulnerability, only 15% had an explicit human health component. Consideration for the special needs of vulnerable groups is uneven and underdeveloped. Climate change is directly motivating 71% of groundwork actions, and 61% of adaptation initiatives are being mainstreamed into existing institutions or programs. We conclude that the adaptation responses to the health risks of climate change remain piecemeal. Policymakers in the health sector must engage with stakeholders to implement adaptation that considers how climate change will impact the health of each segment of the population, particularly within those groups already considered most vulnerable to poor health outcomes.

  1. Cotton and Climate Change: Impacts and Options to mitigate and adapt.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ton, P.

    2012-04-01

    Cotton & Climate change: Impacts and Options to mitigate and adapt. Climate change will have major impacts on cotton production and trade depending on production location. This report to be presented analyses the impacts of climate change on cotton production and trade in the main producing areas world-wide, and the options available to mitigate and to adapt to these impacts. Cotton production is both a contributor to climate change and subject to its impacts. Agricultural production, processing, trade and consumption contribute up to 40% of the world's emissions when forest clearance is included in the calculation. Cotton production contributes to between 0.3% and 1% of total global GHG emissions. Cotton has a certain resilience to high temperatures and drought due to its vertical tap root. The crop is, however, sensitive to water availability, particularly at the height of flowering and boll formation. Rising temperatures favour plant development, unless day temperatures exceed 32°C. New production areas may be established where cotton was not grown before. Increases in atmospheric CO2 will also favour plant development. In turn, increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges. Overall, the negative impacts of climate change on cotton production relate to the reduced availability of water for irrigation, in particular in Xinjiang (China), Pakistan, Australia and the western United States. Heat stress risks creating depressed yields in Pakistan in particular, while in other countries limited increases in temperatures could favour cotton plant growth and lengthen the cotton growing season. The impacts of climate change on rainfall will likely be positive in the Yellow River area (China), in India, the south-eastern United States and south-eastern Anatolia (Turkey). Impacts on rainfall in Brazil and West and Central Africa are unclear. Mitigation and adaptation to climate change in cotton production, as in agriculture

  2. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

    2016-01-01

    Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. PMID:26479830

  3. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reidsma, Pytrik; Wolf, Joost; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Schaap, Ben F.; Mandryk, Maryia; Verhagen, Jan; van Ittersum, Martin K.

    2015-04-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.

  4. Adaptation to Externally Driven Change: The Impact of Political Change on Job Satisfaction in the Public Sector

    PubMed Central

    Tabvuma, Vurain; Bui, Hong T M; Homberg, Fabian

    2014-01-01

    This article uses a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the adaptation of job satisfaction to externally driven political change in the public sector. This is important because democratic government bureaucracies often experience changes in leadership after elections. The analyses are based on data drawn from a large longitudinal data set, the British Household Panel Survey. Findings indicate that the impact of political elections is largely weak and temporary and is only present for men. For women, the internal processes of the organization tend to be more important. These findings suggest that changes in political leadership may not be associated with fundamental changes in policy. PMID:25598554

  5. Regional aspects of climate change impacts and related adaptation options in European agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eitzinger, J.

    2009-09-01

    Through a change in climatic conditions and variability, for example, extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) are likely to occur more frequently in different spatial and time scales in future. Since agriculture is one the man' activities more dependant on weather behaviour, the impact on risks of agricultural production is indeed one of the most important issues in climate change assessments. Therefore an early recognition of risks and implementation of adaptation strategies is crucial as anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Results of climate change impact and adaptation studies often show considerable different results, depending on the spatial scale of regionalisation. However, for a decision maker, only a high spatial resolution of related study results are useful as it can represent local conditions and its spatial variablitiy much better. Therefore the ADAGIO project (adagio-eu.org) was designed to focus on regional studies in order to uncover regional specific problems. In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientifc studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilites and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat is the main factor having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the mediterranean region, but also in the Central and Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. An important aspect is also that there are increasing regional differences in the crop production potential in Europe due to climate change and that

  6. Climate change and adaptational impacts in coastal systems: the case of sea defences.

    PubMed

    Firth, Louise B; Mieszkowska, Nova; Thompson, Richard C; Hawkins, Stephen J

    2013-09-01

    We briefly review how coastal ecosystems are responding to and being impacted by climate change, one of the greatest challenges facing society today. In adapting to rising and stormier seas associated with climate change, coastal defence structures are proliferating and becoming dominant coastal features, particularly in urbanised areas. Whilst the primary function of these structures is to protect coastal property and infrastructure, they inevitably have a significant secondary impact on the local environment and ecosystems. In this review we outline some of the negative and positive effects of these structures on physical processes, impacts on marine species, and the novel engineering approaches that have been employed to improve the ecological value of these structures in recent years. Finally we outline guidelines for an environmentally sensitive approach to design of such structures in the marine environment. PMID:23900344

  7. Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

    2014-12-01

    Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in

  8. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lnkao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Matthias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2007-01-01

    Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e

  9. Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

    2013-04-01

    Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers

  10. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Mattias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

  11. Human Health Impacts of and Public Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2007-12-01

    Weather and climate are among the factors that determine the geographic range and incidence of several major causes of ill health, including undernutrition, diarrheal diseases and other conditions due to unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation, and malaria. The Human Health chapter in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, and that projected climate change will increase the risks of climate-sensitive health outcomes, particularly in lower-income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries. Those at greatest risk include the urban poor, older adults, children, traditional societies, subsistence farmers, and coastal populations, particularly in low income countries. The cause-and-effect chain from climate change to changing patterns of health determinants and outcomes is complex and includes socioeconomic, institutional, and other factors. The severity of future impacts will be determined by changes in climate as well as by concurrent changes in nonclimatic factors and by the adaptation measures implemented to reduce negative impacts. Public health has a long history of effectively intervening to reduce risks to the health of individuals and communities. Lessons learned from more than 150 years of research and intervention can provide insights to guide the design and implementation of effective and efficient interventions to reduce the current and projected impacts of climate variability and change.

  12. IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its

  13. Impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on crop production in Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2012-04-01

    The vulnerability of agricultural to climate change is of particular interest to policy makers because the high social and economical importance of agriculture sector in Nigeria, which contributes approximately 40 percent to total GDP and support 70 percent of the population. It is necessary to investigate the potential climate change impacts in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that will be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and implement and develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these changes. In this framework, this study aimed to assess the climate change impacts on Nigerian agricultural sector and to explore some of potential adaptation strategies for the most important crops in the food basket of the Country. The analysis was made using the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that allows to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. In this analysis, for each selected crop, the models included into DSSAT-CSM software were ran, after a calibration phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output were "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models in order to have a wide variety of possible climate projections for impact analysis. Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for each Agro-Ecological Zone of Nigeria. The climate impact assessment was made by comparing the yield obtained with the climate data for the present period and the yield obtainable under future changed climate conditions. The models ran by keeping

  14. Adapting water treatment design and operations to the impacts of global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Robert M.; Li, Zhiwei; Buchberger, Steven G.

    2011-12-01

    It is anticipated that global climate change will adversely impact source water quality in many areas of the United States and will therefore, potentially, impact the design and operation of current and future water treatment systems. The USEPA has initiated an effort called the Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP) which is intended to develop tools and techniques that can assess the impact of global climate change on urban drinking water and wastewater infrastructure. A three step approach for assessing climate change impacts on water treatment operation and design is being persude in this effort. The first step is the stochastic characterization of source water quality, the second step is the application of the USEPA Water Treatment Plant model and the third step is the application of cost algorithms to provide a metric that can be used to assess the coat impact of climate change. A model has been validated using data collected from Cincinnati's Richard Miller Water Treatment Plant for the USEPA Information Collection Rule (ICR) database. An analysis of the water treatment processes in response to assumed perturbations in raw water quality identified TOC, pH, and bromide as the three most important parameters affecting performance of the Miller WTP. The Miller Plant was simulated using the EPA WTP model to examine the impact of these parameters on selected regulated water quality parameters. Uncertainty in influent water quality was analyzed to estimate the risk of violating drinking water maximum contaminant levels (MCLs).Water quality changes in the Ohio River were projected for 2050 using Monte Carlo simulation and the WTP model was used to evaluate the effects of water quality changes on design and operation. Results indicate that the existing Miller WTP might not meet Safe Drinking Water Act MCL requirements for certain extreme future conditions. However, it was found that the risk of MCL violations under future conditions could be controlled by

  15. Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2014-01-01

    The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

  16. Adaptation to impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and allergic respiratory diseases.

    PubMed

    Beggs, Paul J

    2010-08-01

    Climate change has the potential to have many significant impacts on aeroallergens such as pollen and mould spores, and therefore related diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis. This paper critically reviews this topic, with a focus on the potential adaptation measures that have been identified to date. These are aeroallergen monitoring; aeroallergen forecasting; allergenic plant management; planting practices and policies; urban/settlement planning; building design and heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC); access to health care and medications; education; and research. PMID:20948943

  17. Key landscape ecology metrics for assessing climate change adaptation options: rate of change and patchiness of impacts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    López-Hoffman, Laura; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Miller, Marc L.

    2013-01-01

    Under a changing climate, devising strategies to help stakeholders adapt to alterations to ecosystems and their services is of utmost importance. In western North America, diminished snowpack and river flows are causing relatively gradual, homogeneous (system-wide) changes in ecosystems and services. In addition, increased climate variability is also accelerating the incidence of abrupt and patchy disturbances such as fires, floods and droughts. This paper posits that two key variables often considered in landscape ecology—the rate of change and the degree of patchiness of change—can aid in developing climate change adaptation strategies. We use two examples from the “borderland” region of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In piñon-juniper woodland die-offs that occurred in the southwestern United States during the 2000s, ecosystem services suddenly crashed in some parts of the system while remaining unaffected in other locations. The precise timing and location of die-offs was uncertain. On the other hand, slower, homogeneous change, such as the expected declines in water supply to the Colorado River delta, will likely impact the entire ecosystem, with ecosystem services everywhere in the delta subject to alteration, and all users likely exposed. The rapidity and spatial heterogeneity of faster, patchy climate change exemplified by tree die-off suggests that decision-makers and local stakeholders would be wise to operate under a Rawlsian “veil of ignorance,” and implement adaptation strategies that allow ecosystem service users to equitably share the risk of sudden loss of ecosystem services before actual ecosystem changes occur. On the other hand, in the case of slower, homogeneous, system-wide impacts to ecosystem services as exemplified by the Colorado River delta, adaptation strategies can be implemented after the changes begin, but will require a fundamental rethinking of how ecosystems and services are used and valued. In

  18. Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

    PubMed

    van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

    2015-05-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. PMID:25704748

  19. Using Copernicus earth observation services to monitor climate change impacts and adaptations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, Daniel; Zebisch, Marc; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Schönthaler, Konstanze; von Andrian-Werburg, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    In the last years, earth observation made a big leap towards an operational monitoring of the state of environment. Remote sensing provides for instance information on the dynamics, trends and anomalies of snow and glaciers, vegetation, soil moisture or water temperature. In particular, the European Copernicus initiative offers new opportunities through new satellites with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, operational services for environmental monitoring and an open data access policy. With the Copernicus climate change service and the ESA climate change initiative, specific earth observation programs are in place to address the impacts of climate change. However, such products and services are until now rarely picked up in the field of policy or decision making oriented climate impact or climate risk assessments. In this talk, we will present results of a study, which focus on the question, if and how remote sensing approaches could be integrated into operational monitoring activities of climate impacts and response measures on a national and subnational scale. We assessed all existing and planned Copernicus services regarding their relevance for climate impact monitoring by comparing them against the indication fields from an indicator system for climate impact and response monitoring in Germany, which has lately been developed in the framework of the German national adaptation strategy. For several climate impact or response indicators, an immediate integration of remote sensing data could be identified and been recommended. For these cases, we will show practical examples on the benefit of remote sensing data. For other indication fields, promising approaches were found, which need further development. We argue that remote sensing is a very valuable complement to the existing indicator schemes by contributing with spatial explicit, timely information but not always easy to integrate with classical approaches, which are oriented towards consistent long

  20. A health impact assessment framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation planning for climate change.

    PubMed

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru. PMID:25514146

  1. A Health Impact Assessment framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation planning for climate change.

    PubMed

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such,aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru. PMID:25587609

  2. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru. PMID:25514146

  3. Adaptive Management for Climate Change Impact for Water Sector in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Jun

    2013-04-01

    China, as a larger developing country in the world, in facing to bigger challenges than before on wisely managing water resources to support rapidly socio-economic development in 2020 and beyond. China has a vast area of 9.6 million sq. km and relatively abundant water resources with ranked sixth in the world after Brazil, the Russian Federation, Canada, the United States and Indonesia in terms of absolute amount of annual runoff. However, given its large population of over 1.3 billion, China has a very low per capita amount (about one quarter of the world average) of water resources and, is therefore one of the countries with the most severe shortage of water in the world, particular North China. North China is one of very important regions in China. For this region, population has 0.437 billion in 2000 that occupies 35% of total in China, GDP reaches 386 billion US that is also 32% of total in China. Irrigation area of North China is 42% of total in China, and agricultural product has 40% of total in China. However, it is the most water shortage area in China. For instance, water resources per capita in Hai River Basin have only 270 cubic meters, which is only 1/7 of the national average and 1/24 of the world average. Water Resource Vulnerability under impact of both climate change and human activities are rather significantly. This presentation will focus on two issues: (1) how to screening climate changes impact to water sector, and how to quantify water resource vulnerability related to impact of climate change and human activity? (2) how to take adaptation & wisely manage water to changing environment on existing water projects and new water programme & water policy in China? A screening process for climate impact to water sector in North China was proposed. A new study on quantifying water resource vulnerability, based on three practical and workable, i.e., the use to availability ratio, water crowding and per capita water use, were developed. Four case

  4. Agricultural Intensification as a Mechanism of Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kyle, P.; Calvin, K. V.; le Page, Y.; Patel, P.; West, T. O.; Wise, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The research, policy, and NGO communities have devoted significant attention to the potential for agricultural intensification, or closure of "yield gaps," to alleviate future global hunger, poverty, climate change impacts, and other threats. However, because the research to this point has focused on biophysically attainable yields—assuming optimal choices under ideal conditions—the presently available work has not yet addressed the likely responses of the agricultural sector to real-world conditions in the future. This study investigates endogenous agricultural intensification in response to global climate change impacts—that is, intensification independent of policies or other exogenous interventions to promote yield gap closure. The framework for the analysis is a set of scenarios to 2100 in the GCAM global integrated assessment model, enhanced to include endogenous irrigation, fertilizer application, and yields, in each of 283 land use regions, with maximum yields based on the 95th percentile of attainable yields in a recent global assessment. We assess three levels of agricultural climate impacts, using recent global gridded crop model datasets: none, low (LPJmL), and high (Pegasus). Applying formulations for decomposition of climate change impacts response developed in prior AgMIP work, we find that at the global level, availability of high-yielding technologies mitigates price shocks and shifts the agricultural sector's climate response modestly towards intensification, away from cropland expansion and reduced production. At the regional level, the behavior is more complex; nevertheless, availability of high-yielding production technologies enhances the inter-regional shifts in agricultural production that are induced by climate change, complemented by commensurate changes in trade patterns. The results highlight the importance of policies to facilitate yield gap closure and inter-regional trade as mechanisms for adapting to climate change

  5. Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic: adaptation to climate change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

    2010-05-01

    Extreme temperature events have pronounced negative impacts on ecosystems and society, including human health effects. The study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (central Europe) during 1986-2006. Declining trends in the mortality impacts are found in summer as well as in transition seasons, in spite of rising temperature trends (warming by 1.4 deg. C in summer over the 21-year period). The finding remains unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability. The results suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that influence vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address associated uncertainties in studies dealing with climate change projections of temperature-related mortality.

  6. Importance of impacts scenarios for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zullo, J.; Macedo, C.; Pinto, H. S.; Assad, E. D.; Koga Vicente, A.

    2012-12-01

    The great possibility that the climate is already changing, and the most drastic way possible, increases the challenge of agricultural engineering, especially in environmentally vulnerable areas and in regions where agriculture has a high economic and social importance. Knowledge of potential impacts that may be caused by changes in water and thermal regimes in coming decades is increasingly strategic, as they allow the development of techniques to adapt agriculture to climate change and therefore minimizes the risk of undesirable impacts, for example, in food and nutritional security. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to describe a way to generate impacts scenarios caused by anomalies of precipitation and temperature in the definition of climate risk zoning of an agricultural crop very important in the tropics, such as the sugar cane, especially in central-southern Brazil, which is one of its main world producers. A key point here is the choice of the climate model to be used, considering that 23 different models were used in the fourth IPCC report published in 2007. The number and range of available models requires the definition of criteria for choosing the most suitable for the preparation of the impacts scenarios. One way proposed and used in this work is based on the definition of two groups of models according to 27 technical attributes of them. The clustering of 23 models in two groups, with a model representing each group (UKMO_HadCM3 and MIROC3.2_medres), assists the generation and comparison of impacts scenarios, making them more representative and useful. Another important aspect in the generation of impacts scenarios is the estimate of the relative importance of the anomalies of precipitation and temperature, which are the most commonly used. To assess the relative importance of the anomalies are generated scenarios considering an anomaly at a time and both together. The impacts scenarios for a high emission of greenhouse gases (A2), from 2010

  7. Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.

    PubMed

    Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens

    2014-08-01

    Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts. PMID:24796720

  8. Impact of farm level adaptation to climate change on agricultural productivity and farmers' wellbeing: Empirical evidence from Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abid, Muhammad; Scheffran, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is projected to adversely affect the agricultural sector and attached rural livelihoods, particularly in the developing countries. Hence adaptation to climate change is crucial to support agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods. The current study is based on comprehensive cross sectional data collected through 450 face-to-face interviews with farmers from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab province, Pakistan. This paper aims to examine the factors that influence the farmers' adaptation decisions and to assess the impact of farm level adaptation on crop productivity and farmers' wellbeing. The paper uses correlation analysis, binary logistic regression and propensity score matching techniques in order to explore the study objectives. The results of the study indicate that education, age, land holdings, farmer-to-farmer interaction, access to weather forecasting information and location in agro-ecological zone does have significant impact on farmers' decision to adapt to climate change. Major adaptation measures adopted by farmers were changing planting dates, changing cropping varieties, planting shaded trees and changing input-mix. Moreover the study found a positive and significant impact of adaptation on productivity of all major crops (wheat, sugarcane, maize and rice) and on farmers' wellbeing in term of farm income. Furthermore, the study also found that the extent of adaptation benefits increases with the number of adaptation measures. The findings of the study suggest to focus on farmers' education and easy access to climate-specific information for better adaptation at farm level and improved farm wellbeing. Key words: Climate change; Farm level adaptation; crop productivity; farmers' wellbeing; Pakistan

  9. Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in northern India: impacts and adaptation strategies.

    PubMed

    Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda

    2013-12-01

    Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of a waterborne infectious disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of northern India. A conceptual framework is presented for climate exposure response relationships based on studies from different countries, as empirical studies and appropriate epidemiological data sets for India are lacking. Four climate variables are included: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. Applying the conceptual framework to the latest regional climate projections for northern India shows increases between present and future (2040s), varying spatially from no change to an increase of 21% in diarrhoea incidences, with 13.1% increase on average for the Ganges basin. We discuss three types of measures against diarrhoeal disease: reactive actions, preventive actions and national policy options. Preventive actions have the potential to counterbalance this expected increase. However, given the limited progress in reducing incidences over the past decade consorted actions and effective implementation and integration of existing policies are needed. PMID:23972324

  10. Climate Change and Waterborne Diarrhoea in Northern India: Impact and Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda

    2013-04-01

    Although some studies showed the vulnerability of human health to climate change (e.g. 22.000 to 45.000 excess mortality cases during the heat waves in Europe, or the association of malaria outbreaks with El Niño) a clear quantification of the increased risks attributable to climate change is often lacking. Even more complicated are the assessments of the adaptation measures for this sector. Adaptation measures are in most cases very site specific. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of waterborne disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of Northern India. India is by far the leading country when it comes to child mortality under five years caused by diarrhoea and accounted for 386.600 deaths in 2007. Estimates on the increased risk of diarrhoea as a result of increased temperature in the 2030ies range between 8-11%. Uncertainties around these estimates mainly relate to the few studies that have characterized the exposure-response relationship and inter-model discrepancy of climate models. The influence of other climate parameters than temperature on diarrhoea in the future has not been assessed. As empirical studies and surveillance data for India are lacking we developed a conceptual framework for climate exposure-response relationships based on a literature review and applied it to future climate projections for the Ganges basin. Four climate variables are analysed: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. In an analysis of reports on diarrhoea outbreaks we show the spatial and temporal distribution over the subcontinent. Most cases of diarrhoea occur during the hot summer (23%) and the wet and humid monsoon (57%) months. These reports often suggest sewage and pipe leakage as the leading cause of the local outbreaks. We demonstrate the applicability of the conceptual framework for the two districts in West Bengal, North and South 24 Parganas. All climate

  11. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Water Supply Security through Adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation is to describe the water resources adaptation program (WRAP) at the U.S.EPA National Risk Management Research Laboratory, and to highlight initial research results on hydroclimatic periodicity and changes and on adaptation measures including sustainable water in...

  12. The impact of climate change on grain maize production over Europe - adaptation with different irrigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceglar, A.; Srivastava, A. K.; Chukaliev, O.; Duveiller, G.; Niemeyer, S.

    2013-12-01

    The spatial distribution of water deficit and maize yield deficit across Europe has been compared between current and expected climatic conditions in the near future (time window 2030). Maize yields and water requirements were simulated using the WOFOST (World Food Studies) crop growth model. In our study, the priority has been given to future projections of the A1B emission scenario produced within the ENSEMBLE project: HadRM3 RCM nested within the HADCM3 GCM (HADLEY) and HIRHAM5 RCM nested within ECHAM5 GCM (ECHAM). The two realizations can be considered as warm (HADLEY) and cold (ECHAM5) according to simulated temperature in the near future and therefore represent the extremes in air temperature change within those analyzed in ENSEMBLES project, allowing us to evaluate the largest range of uncertainty in weather inputs to the impact model. In addition, we also explored the advantages of different irrigation strategies for the target crop to offset climate change impacts. In wake of limited amount of water availability for agriculture purposes, we explored effectiveness of three different irrigation strategies on maize yield over Europe, namely full, deficit and supplemental irrigation. The results of our study indicate that the maize yield under rainfed conditions is expected to decrease over the Southern Europe as well as regions around the Black Sea during the 2030s under both climate model realizations. Water deficit is expected to increase especially in the Mediterranean, whereas slightly less in parts of Central and Western Europe. However, adaptation strategies followed in this study negate the detrimental effect of climate change and result in an increased maize yield. Three irrigation strategies have been simulated differing in timing of water application and in the total volume of water supplied during the growing season. The results show that yields, achieved using deficit and full irrigation strategies, are not significantly different. Hence, at least

  13. Conservation strategies to adapt to projected climate change impacts in Malawi

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There is potential for climate change to have negative effects on agricultural production via extreme events (Pruski and Nearing, 2002b; Zhang et al., 2012; Walthall 2012), and there is a need to implement conservation practices for climate change adaptation (Delgado et al. 2011; 2013). Recent repo...

  14. A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Gao, Yongli; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Du, Yajuan

    2015-01-01

    The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520–1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ18O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ18O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events. PMID:26270656

  15. A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years.

    PubMed

    Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Gao, Yongli; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Du, Yajuan

    2015-01-01

    The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ(18)O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ(18)O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events. PMID:26270656

  16. A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Gao, Yongli; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Du, Yajuan

    2015-08-01

    The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ18O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ18O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.

  17. Assessment of impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on maize production in Uganda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kikoyo, Duncan A.; Nobert, Joel

    2016-06-01

    Globally, various climatic studies have estimated a reduction of crop yields due to changes in surface temperature and precipitation especially for the developing countries which is heavily dependent on agriculture and lacks resources to counter the negative effects of climate change. Uganda's economy and the wellbeing of its populace depend on rain-fed agriculture which is susceptible to climate change. This study quantified the impacts of climate change and variability in Uganda and how coping strategies can enhance crop production against climate change and/or variability. The study used statistical methods to establish various climate change and variability indicators across the country, and uses the FAO AquaCrop model to simulate yields under possible future climate scenarios with and without adaptation strategies. Maize, the most widely grown crop was used for the study. Meteorological, soil and crop data were collected for various districts representing the maize growing ecological zones in the country. Based on this study, it was found that temperatures have increased by up to 1 °C across much of Uganda since the 1970s, with rates of warming around 0.3 °C per decade across the country. High altitude, low rainfall regions experience the highest level of warming, with over 0.5 °C/decade recorded in Kasese. Rainfall is variable and does not follow a specific significant increasing or decreasing trend. For both future climate scenarios, Maize yields will reduce in excess of 4.7% for the fast warming-low rainfall climates but increase on average by 3.5% for slow warming-high rainfall regions, by 2050. Improved soil fertility can improve yields by over 50% while mulching and use of surface water management practices improve yields by single digit percentages. The use of fertilizer application needs to go hand in hand with other water management strategies since more yields as a result of the improved soil fertility leads to increased water stress, especially

  18. Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: ecological buffering mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wichmann, Matthias C.; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Jeltsch, Florian; Grimm, Volker

    2005-07-01

    The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle ( Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted.

  19. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  20. The potential role of health impact assessment in tackling the complexity of climate change adaptation for health.

    PubMed

    Brown, Helen L; Proust, Katrina; Spickett, Jeffery; Capon, Anthony

    2011-12-01

    Managing an issue of the magnitude, scope and complexity of climate change is a daunting prospect, yet one which nations around the world must face. Climate change is an issue without boundaries--impacts will cut across administrative and geographical borders and be felt by every sector of society. Responses to climate change will need to employ system approaches that take into account the relationships that cross organisational and sectoral boundaries. Solutions designed in isolation from these interdependencies will be unlikely to succeed, squandering opportunities for long-term effective adaptation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a structural approach to identify, evaluate and manage health impacts of climate change that is inclusive of a wide range of stakeholders. Climate change will affect decision-making across every government level and sector and the health implications of these decisions can also be addressed with HIA. Given the nature of the issue, HIA of climate change will identify a large number of variables that influence the type and extent of health impacts and the management of these impacts. In order to implement the most effective adaptation measures, it is critica that an understanding of the interactions between these variables is developed. The outcome of HIA of climate change can therefore be strengthened by the introduction of system dynamics tools, such as causal loop diagrams, that are designed to examine interactions between variables and the resulting behaviour of complex systems. PMID:22518921

  1. Adapting to the health impacts of climate change in a sustainable manner.

    PubMed

    Hoy, Damian; Roth, Adam; Lepers, Christelle; Durham, Jo; Bell, Johann; Durand, Alexis; Lal, Padma Narsey; Souares, Yvan

    2014-01-01

    The climate is changing and this poses significant threats to human health. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing Pacific Island countries and territories due to their unique geophysical features, and their social, economic and cultural characteristics. The Pacific region also faces challenges with widely dispersed populations, limited resources and fragmented health systems. Over the past few years, there has been a substantial increase in international aid for health activities aimed at adapting to the threats of climate change. This funding needs to be used strategically to ensure an effective approach to reducing the health risk from climate change. Respecting the principles of development effectiveness will result in more effective and sustainable adaptation, in particular, 1) processes should be owned and driven by local communities, 2) investments should be aligned with existing national priorities and policies, and 3) existing systems must not be ignored, but rather expanded upon and reinforced. PMID:25498769

  2. Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara

    2009-05-01

    The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

  3. Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

    2014-12-01

    China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national

  4. A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Bowen, Kathryn J.; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J.

    2013-01-01

    Background Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. Objectives To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. Design A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. Results A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Conclusion Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change. PMID:24028938

  5. Vulnerability of drained and rewetted organic soils to climate change impacts and associated adaptation options

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renou-Wilson, Florence; Müller, Christoph; Wilson, David

    2016-04-01

    With 20% of the land covered with peat soils, Ireland needs to develop a deeper understanding among stakeholders of the potential vulnerability of peatlands and organic soils to climate change (both gradual and extreme events) in the context of current land use changes. The fate of carbon in organic soils is critical for predicting future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. While keeping carbon stock in organic soils (for example by rewetting drained sites) can be an effective mitigation measures to reduce CO2 emissions, adaptation options are also required to ensure their 'resilience'. Rewetting of drained organic soils has been initiated at several sites across the country with the aim to (i) reduce net GHG emissions at the source and/or (ii) create suitable conditions for carbon sequestration in active peatland habitats. We present here two sites: an industrial cutaway peatland and an extensive grassland over organic soil, where long-term (> 4 years) environmental and GHG flux (chamber) datasets in both drained and rewetted areas have provided information on the impact of annual weather variability on net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Statistical response functions estimated for gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were used to reconstruct annual CO2 balances using site-specific models driven by soil temperature, solar radiation, soil water table levels and leaf area index. The modification of some of the model parameters to fit predicted future climate scenarios for the region allowed potential changes in modelled NEE to be assessed. Both sites were, on average, an annual source of CO2 when drained (138 - 232 g C m‑2 yr‑1) and a sink when rewetted (ranging from -40 g C m‑2 yr‑1 in the ungrazed rewetted grassland to a maximum of -260 g C m‑2 yr‑1 in the rewetted cutaway). At both sites, soil temperatures and water table levels varied significantly between all years. Average NEE at each site displayed a very

  6. The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

    2012-04-01

    This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

  7. Toward Collective Impact for Climate Resilience: Maximizing Climate Change Education for Preparedness, Adaptation, and Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; McCaffrey, M.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing the capacity of society to make informed climate decisions based on scientific evidence is imperative. While a wide range of education programs and communication efforts to improve understanding and facilitate responsible effective decision-making have been developed in recent years, these efforts have been largely disconnected. The interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary nature of the problems and potential responses to climate change requires a broad range of expertise and a strategy that overcomes the inherent limitations of isolated programs and efforts. To extend the reach and impact of climate change education and engagement efforts, it is necessary to have a coordination that results in greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network has facilitated a series of discussions at six professional meetings from late 2012 through spring 2014 to begin to develop and define the elements of collective impact on climate change education and engagement. These discussions have focused on getting input from the community on a common agenda and what a backbone support organization could do to help extend their reach and impact and enable a longer-term sustainability. These discussions will continue at future meetings, with the focus shifting to developing a common agenda and shared metrics. In this presentation we will summarize the outcomes of these discussions thus far, especially with respect to what activities a backbone support organization might provide to help increase the collective impact of climate change education effort and invite others to join the development of public-private partnership to improve the nations climate literacy. The cumulative input into this evolving discussion on collective

  8. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Howden, S. Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists. PMID:18077402

  9. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  10. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  11. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

    PubMed Central

    Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, David W.; Kendall, Anthony D.; Grace, Peter R.; Robertson, G. Philip

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability. PMID:26043188

  12. Evaluating climate change impacts and adaptation options for agriculture in West Africa: a multi-model comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Guan, K.; Roudier, P.; Piani, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is likely to stress food production in many parts of the developing world over the next few decades. In areas such as West Africa, where poor communities are highly dependent on the direct use of local natural resources, the effects of climate change on food security could be particularly devastating. Given these concerns, there is great interest in identifying and investing in technologies or practices that could help farmers adapt to climate variability and change. Recent studies found a robust agreement across the various climate models of the IPCC Coupled Models Inter-comparison Program ensemble on the seasonal distribution of Sahel rainfall changes (with a drying of the early season and positive rainfall anomaly at the end) in contrast with a large uncertainty for summertime rainfall totals. These changes will therefore certainly impact agriculture strategy (selection of new cultivars, later sowing) and output. This study estimates such impacts by using a series of climate scenarios as input for two crop models for multiple locations within West Africa. Simulations are run for the two major crops in the region - sorghum and millets. Building on the above simulations, we then simulate different scenarios of adaptation that could be used to cope with climate changes.

  13. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  14. From cause-effect-analysis to adaptation to hydrological change: Impacts of environmental change on catchment hydrology and water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bormann, Helge

    2010-05-01

    The water cycle of catchments is influenced by different forcings and boundary conditions causing an observed or a possible future hydrological change. Regional climate is variable or even changing, land use is altered due socioeconomic drivers, and humans are taking actions directly in rivers or in the natural groundwater storage in order to regulate the water flows in a catchment. In those cases where hydrological change is observed, very often focus is set on single cause-effect-relationships, first. Sometimes, satisfying correlation is found, and a single cause-effect-relationship can be derived. But just as often correlations cannot sufficiently explain the hydrological change. Integrative approaches are required in order to consider that different changes occur simultaneously. However, interactions between the different causes of hydrological change are complex, and the differentiation of their individual share of hydrological change is difficult. This presentation points out that different strategies are required to investigate the effects of historical and future changes on catchment hydrological behaviour. These differences are due to limitations in data availability and model validity under changing environmental conditions. Examples on the value and the limitation of the analysis of individual cause-effect-relationships between environmental change (land use and climate change) and hydrological change are provided. Despite their limited consideration of the ‘complexity' of environmental change they can contribute to analyse the system. The problem of model validity for future environmental conditions is discussed, which can be reduced by applying multi-model-ensembles. Finally, it will be illustrated that scenario analysis is a valuable tool to quantify possible future hydrological change. Knowing reliable ‘numbers' of change is a prerequisite for a successful adaptation to changing environmental conditions, i.e. of the regional water management to

  15. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

    PubMed

    Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

  16. Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

  17. Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, Molly E.; McCusker, Brent

    2008-11-01

    As climate change has emerged as a significant threat, there is much concern about how vulnerable agricultural communities will adapt, particularly as global population continues to rise. Much of the current lack of productivity and economic marginalization of African agriculture arises from global trade regimes that give a competitive advantage to Western farmers, from low use of agricultural inputs, and from a dearth of infrastructure and services for the agriculture sector. For centuries, African farmers have used a wide variety of risk-reducing livelihood strategies, including diversifying income sources, switching crops, and investing in marketing. However, improving their productivity to ``modern'' levels has remained a distant dream, resulting in a continual reduction in investment in the sector over the past five decades.

  18. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlet, A. F.

    2010-07-01

    and institutional arrangements provide a solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historic records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration has (with some exceptions) led to institutional "gridlock" in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making progress in addressing the fundamental

  19. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlet, A. F.

    2011-05-01

    provide a reasonably solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historical records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration have (with some exceptions) contributed to widespread institutional "gridlock" in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting some of these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making progress in addressing the fundamental

  20. Global change and the mulga woodlands of southwest Queensland: greenhouse gas emissions, impacts, and adaptation.

    PubMed

    Howden, S M; Moore, J L; McKeon, G M; Carter, J O

    2001-09-01

    The possibility of trading greenhouse gas emission permits as a result of the Kyoto Protocol has spurred interest in developing land-based sinks for greenhouse gases. Extensive grazing lands that have the potential to develop substantial woody biomass are one obvious candidate for such activities. However, such activities need to consider the possible impacts on existing grazing and the possible impacts of continuing CO2 buildup in the atmosphere and resultant climate change. We used simulation models to investigate these issues in the mulga (Acacia aneura) woodlands of southwest Queensland. The simulation results suggest that this system can be managed to act as either a net source or a net sink of greenhouse gases under current climate and CO2 and under a range of global change scenarios. The key component in determining source or sink status is the management of the woody mulga. The most effective means of permanently increasing carbon stores and hence reducing net emissions is to exclude both burning and grazing. There are combinations of management regimes, such as excluding fire with light grazing, which, on average, allows productive grazing but transient carbon storage. The effects of increased CO2 on ecosystem carbon stores were unexpected. Carbon stores increased (7-17%) with doubling of CO2 only in those simulations where burning did not occur, but decreased when burnt. This occurred because the substantial increases in grass growth with doubling of CO2 (34-56%) enabled more fires, killing off the establishing cohorts needed to ensure continued carbon accumulation. On average, the doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration increased grass growth by 44%, which is identical with mean literature values, suggesting that this result may be applicable in other ecosystems where fire has a similar function. A sensitivity analysis of the CO2 response of mulga showed only minor impacts. We discuss additional uncertainties and shortcomings. PMID:11697664

  1. Transcriptomes reveal alterations in gravity impact circadian clocks and activate mechanotransduction pathways with adaptation through epigenetic change.

    PubMed

    Casey, Theresa; Patel, Osman V; Plaut, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Few studies have investigated the impact of alterations in gravity on mammalian transcriptomes. Here, we describe the impact of spaceflight on mammary transcriptome of late pregnant rats and the effect of hypergravity exposure on mammary, liver, and adipose transcriptomes in late pregnancy and at the onset of lactation. RNA was isolated from mammary collected on pregnancy day 20 from rats exposed to spaceflight from days 11 to 20 of gestation. To measure the impact of hypergravity on mammary, liver, and adipose transcriptomes we isolated RNA from tissues collected on P20 and lactation day 1 from rats exposed to hypergravity beginning on pregnancy day 9. Gene expression was measured with Affymetrix GeneChips. Microarray analysis of variance revealed alterations in gravity affected the expression of genes that regulate circadian clocks and activate mechanotransduction pathways. Changes in these systems may explain global gene expression changes in immune response, metabolism, and cell proliferation. Expression of genes that modify chromatin structure and methylation was affected, suggesting adaptation to gravity alterations may proceed through epigenetic change. Altered gravity experiments offer insights into the role of forces omnipresent on Earth that shape genomes in heritable ways. Our study is the first to analyze the impact of alterations in gravity on transcriptomes of pregnant and lactating mammals. Findings provide insight into systems that sense gravity and the way in which they affect phenotype, as well as the possibility of sustaining life beyond Earth's orbit. PMID:25649141

  2. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

    2015-07-01

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  3. Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashemi, H.; Uvo, C. B.; Berndtsson, R.

    2015-10-01

    The effect of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010-2030 and 2030-2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002-2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall-runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic heads. As a result of the rainfall-runoff modeling, under the B1 scenario the number of floods is projected to slightly increase in the area. This in turn calls for proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharge amount in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.

  4. Sustainability Impact Assessment of two forest-based bioenergy production systems related to mitigation and adaption to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gartzia-Bengoetxea, Nahia; Arias-González, Ander; Tuomasjukka, Diana

    2016-04-01

    New forest management strategies are necessary to resist and adapt to Climate Change (CC) and to maintain ecosystem functions such as forest productivity, water storage and biomass production. The increased use of forest-based biomass for energy generation as well as the application of combustion or pyrolysis co-products such as ash or biochar back into forest soils is being suggested as a CC mitigation and adaptation strategy while trying to fulfil the targets of both: (i) Europe 2020 growth strategy in relation to CC and energy sustainability and (ii) EU Action Plan for the Circular Economy. The energy stored in harvested biomass can be released through combustion and used for energy generation to enable national energy security (reduced oil dependence) and the substitution of fossil fuel by renewable biomass can decrease the emission of greenhouse gases.In the end, the wood-ash produced in the process can return to the forest soil to replace the nutrients exported by harvesting. Another way to use biomass in this green circular framework is to pyrolyse it. Pyrolysis of the biomass produce a carbon-rich product (biochar) that can increase carbon sequestration in the soils and liquid and gas co-products of biomass pyrolysis can be used for energy generation or other fuel use thereby offsetting fossil fuel consumption and so avoiding greenhouse gas emissions. Both biomass based energy systems differ in the amount of energy produced, in the co-product (biochar or wood ash) returned to the field, and in societal impacts they have. The Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) was used for modelling both energy production systems. ToSIA integrates several different methods, and allows a quantification and objective comparison of economic, environmental and social impacts in a sustainability impact assessment for different decision alternatives/scenarios. We will interpret the results in order to support the bioenergy planning in temperate forests under the

  5. Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Many studies on the potential impacts of climate change in agriculture have focused primarily on productivity of individual crops at specific locations rather than considering how cropping patterns may evolve adaptively. These adaptations likely would include both geographic and temporal changes. Th...

  6. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; Ponnusamy, Paramasivam; Rasnayaka, Herath; Singh, Harbir

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  7. Metrics of Climate Change Impact and Adaptation of Physiologically-diverse Crops

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is predicted to be most pronounced at high latitudes and is expected to cause a net loss of agro-ecosystem carbon (C) and a positive feedback to global warming. Nevertheless, demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy continues to be a major driver of global climate change, especially...

  8. An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

    2013-12-01

    Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as

  9. Communicating Climate Change Science to Stakeholders for Assessments of Impact and Adaptation: Experiences at the Municipal Level in Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, P. R.; Mate, D.; Tansey, J. D.

    2004-12-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts and the identification of adaptation strategies require understandable communication of climate change science and its uncertainties to a diverse group of stakeholders. This paper will report on the experience being gained from a set of municipal case studies conducted in Canada, where climate change impacts such as water resource depletion, permafrost melting and coastal sea level rise are being addressed. Two aspects will be discussed: the local process of stakeholder interaction and the effort to bring the local experiences to a national level through development of municipal best practice guides. Ideally, stakeholders are engaged at the local level through a structured process. This is to avoid the common problem that pre-existing tensions between stakeholders tend to dominate unstructured discussions and distract attention from the target issue. One-on-one interviews with the stakeholders and research into the socio-economic history of the communities provide background on the issues that may arise before group workshops are attempted. When workshops involving stakeholders are held, they are professionally facilitated and the science delivery is carefully rationed into digestible portions that enable informed discussion of specific climate change scenarios. Municipalities can be engaged at political, practitioner and public levels not only as major stakeholders, but also as key partners in the communication process. We have used presentations to council, direct involvement of city planning departments and public events such as Science and Technology Week to nurture two-way communication. We have also put considerable thought into the effort to communicate these experiences to the over one thousand communities across the country that will not benefit from a case study. Our initial approach was to develop best practice guides on climate change topics based on the successes and lessons learned in the case studies. While

  10. Adaptation Planning for Climate Change Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change presents a unique challenge to water resources managers. As evolving patterns of precipitation alter the quantity and quality of runoff within watersheds, demand from competing sectors continues to increase. The agricultural industry is especially sensitive to future shifts in water supply and demand since irrigated croplands require large quantities of water at low prices. California is of interest because of its $35-billion agricultural sector, limited water resources, and complexity. This presentation explores future changes to the water resources of the western United States and the implications of these changes on California's irrigated agriculture. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) model output was used to drive current (1980-1999) and future (2050-2069) Water Balance/Transport Model (WBM) simulations of key water cycle components, including evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge, as well as some water use components, including agricultural and electrical, over the contiguous United States. Climatic and hydrologic data were then synthesized to evaluate whether drought conditions in California, both historic and future, dominantly coincide with droughts in adjacent states and identify neighboring regions with the potential to provide supplemental water resources to California. Uncertainty in the assessment of future water supply was analyzed using multiple general circulation model-regional climate model pairs from NARCCAP.

  11. Increased fitness of rice plants to abiotic stress via habitat adapted symbiosis: a strategy for mitigating impacts of climate change.

    PubMed

    Redman, Regina S; Kim, Yong Ok; Woodward, Claire J D A; Greer, Chris; Espino, Luis; Doty, Sharon L; Rodriguez, Rusty J

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and catastrophic events have contributed to rice shortages in several regions due to decreased water availability and soil salinization. Although not adapted to salt or drought stress, two commercial rice varieties achieved tolerance to these stresses by colonizing them with Class 2 fungal endophytes isolated from plants growing across moisture and salinity gradients.Plant growth and development, water usage, ROS sensitivity and osmolytes were measured with and without stress under controlled conditions.The endophytes conferred salt, drought and cold tolerance to growth chamber and greenhouse grown plants. Endophytes reduced water consumption by 20-30% and increased growth rate, reproductive yield, and biomass of greenhouse grown plants. In the absence of stress, there was no apparent cost of the endophytes to plants, however, endophyte colonization decreased from 100% at planting to 65% compared to greenhouse plants grown under continual stress (maintained 100% colonization).These findings indicate that rice plants can exhibit enhanced stress tolerance via symbiosis with Class 2 endophytes, and suggest that symbiotic technology may be useful in mitigating impacts of climate change on other crops and expanding agricultural production onto marginal lands. PMID:21750695

  12. Increased Fitness of Rice Plants to Abiotic Stress Via Habitat Adapted Symbiosis: A Strategy for Mitigating Impacts of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Redman, Regina S.; Kim, Yong Ok; Woodward, Claire J. D. A.; Greer, Chris; Espino, Luis; Doty, Sharon L.; Rodriguez, Rusty J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and catastrophic events have contributed to rice shortages in several regions due to decreased water availability and soil salinization. Although not adapted to salt or drought stress, two commercial rice varieties achieved tolerance to these stresses by colonizing them with Class 2 fungal endophytes isolated from plants growing across moisture and salinity gradients. Plant growth and development, water usage, ROS sensitivity and osmolytes were measured with and without stress under controlled conditions. The endophytes conferred salt, drought and cold tolerance to growth chamber and greenhouse grown plants. Endophytes reduced water consumption by 20–30% and increased growth rate, reproductive yield, and biomass of greenhouse grown plants. In the absence of stress, there was no apparent cost of the endophytes to plants, however, endophyte colonization decreased from 100% at planting to 65% compared to greenhouse plants grown under continual stress (maintained 100% colonization). These findings indicate that rice plants can exhibit enhanced stress tolerance via symbiosis with Class 2 endophytes, and suggest that symbiotic technology may be useful in mitigating impacts of climate change on other crops and expanding agricultural production onto marginal lands. PMID:21750695

  13. Increased fitness of rice plants to abiotic stress via habitat adapted symbiosis: A strategy for mitigating impacts of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Redman, R.S.; Kim, Y.-O.; Woodward, C.J.D.A.; Greer, C.; Espino, L.; Doty, S.L.; Rodriguez, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and catastrophic events have contributed to rice shortages in several regions due to decreased water availability and soil salinization. Although not adapted to salt or drought stress, two commercial rice varieties achieved tolerance to these stresses by colonizing them with Class 2 fungal endophytes isolated from plants growing across moisture and salinity gradients. Plant growth and development, water usage, ROS sensitivity and osmolytes were measured with and without stress under controlled conditions. The endophytes conferred salt, drought and cold tolerance to growth chamber and greenhouse grown plants. Endophytes reduced water consumption by 20–30% and increased growth rate, reproductive yield, and biomass of greenhouse grown plants. In the absence of stress, there was no apparent cost of the endophytes to plants, however, endophyte colonization decreased from 100% at planting to 65% compared to greenhouse plants grown under continual stress (maintained 100% colonization). These findings indicate that rice plants can exhibit enhanced stress tolerance via symbiosis with Class 2 endophytes, and suggest that symbiotic technology may be useful in mitigating impacts of climate change on other crops and expanding agricultural production onto marginal lands.

  14. Impacts of Climate Changes in Ukraine on Hydrological Regime and Water Resources: Assessment and Measures of Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manukalo, V.

    2009-12-01

    year; about 50% of annual flow will pass in winter months. An increase of risks of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the steppe zone and in the southern part of forest - steppe zone is projected. The region most prone to a rise in river flood frequency is the Ukrainian Carpathians. Generally, a negative impact of climate changes on hydrological regime is expected to outweigh a benefit for the most of regions. The most likely affected sectors by negative impact are: agriculture, industry, drinking water supply, human settlements, river ecosystems. In order to eliminate a possible negative effect on water resources, the adaptation strategies addressed on the national level will have to incorporate a number of legislative, organizational and technical measures aimed at protecting the water resources. The development of integrated water resources management is the essential terms in order to achieve adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems.

  15. Forecasting climate change impacts and evaluation of adaptation options for maize cropping in the hilly terrain of Himalayas: Sikkim, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deb, Proloy; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

    2015-08-01

    An investigation was carried out to assess the climate change impacts on rainfed maize yield using AquaCrop and CERES-maize crop simulation models, and evaluation of adaptation measures were performed for Sikkim state of India. Data related to crop phenology retrieved from the field experiments were used to calibrate and validate the crop models for three representative sites. Climate projections of six global circulation models (ECHAM5, CCSM, HadCM3, CSIRO-MK3.0, CGCM3.1, and MIROC3.2) for scenarios A2 and B2 were bias-corrected at station scale by power law transformation. Simulation results by the two crop models indicate a significant declination in the yield of NLD-White variety of maize ranging from 4.7 ± 1.4 to 20.4 ± 7.2 % for the future time windows under A2 scenario and 2.5 ± 0.9 to 15.8 ± 5.7 % under B2 scenario relative to the yield simulated for the baseline period of 1991-2000. It is also observed that, for a particular temperature, yield remarkably increases with escalated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. On contrary, increase in temperature reduces the yield at a particular CO2 concentration. The overall decline in the yield under future climate scenarios can be alleviated by early planting, appropriate nutrient management, introducing supplementary irrigation, and shifting to heat-tolerant varieties.

  16. Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for maize cultivation in the western Uganda agro-ecological zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babel, M. S.; Turyatunga, E.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we assessed the probable climate change impacts and the appropriate adaptation strategies for maize cultivation in the western Uganda agro-ecological zone. Detailed assessments were made using climate and crop models. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) v4.2 was used to downscale low resolution future climate data obtained from general circulation model HadCM3 for two SRES scenarios, A2 and B2. The CERES-Maize crop model of DSSAT v4.0.2.0 was used to simulate maize yield for the assessment of climate change impacts. In the western Uganda agro-ecological zone, the annual average temperature is expected to increase by between 0.69-2.46 and 0.66-1.78 °C under the A2 and B2 SRES scenarios, respectively, in the three future periods of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s relative to the base period (1961-1990). Monthly average temperatures are expected to increase for most of the months but will slightly decrease for the month of November under both scenarios. The annual average rainfall is expected to decrease by between 4.7-16.4 and 4.7-11.8 % under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, in the three future periods. Monthly average rainfall is expected to decrease for most of the months but will increase for the months of October, November, and December under both scenarios. Crop modeling results show that in the March-May crop season, maize yields will decrease by between 9.6-43.3 and 10.5-28.4 % under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, relative to the base period in the three future periods. However, in the September-November crop season, maize yields are expected to increase by between 8.1-9.6 and 8.6-10.2 % under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Supplementary irrigation and shifting of planting dates are found to extenuate the impacts of future climate on maize yields. Irrigation application of 80 mm during the growing season in the March-May season is expected to increase maize yields by as high as 42.1 % under future climate, while planting 16

  17. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  18. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2009-05-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general development policies.

  19. Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Fernández, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

  20. An extended modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashemi, H.; Uvo, C. B.; Berndtsson, R.

    2014-10-01

    The impact of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010-2030 and 2030-2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. The modified version of the HBV model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002-2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall-runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic head. The results of the rainfall-runoff modeling showed that under the B1 scenario the number of floods might increase in the area. This in turn calls for a proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharged water in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.

  1. Narrative, Adaptation, and Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bateson, Mary Catherine

    2007-01-01

    This paper explores how individuals and communities orient themselves to the future by the way they story the past. There is a persistent tendency to think of such narratives as factual and therefore stable. The mutability of such narratives is actually a key adaptive characteristic, ranging from complete repression of individual traumas to public…

  2. Predicting the impacts of climate change on animal distributions: the importance of local adaptation and species' traits

    SciTech Connect

    HELLMANN, J. J.; LOBO, N. F.

    2011-12-20

    The geographic range limits of many species are strongly affected by climate and are expected to change under global warming. For species that are able to track changing climate over broad geographic areas, we expect to see shifts in species distributions toward the poles and away from the equator. A number of ecological and evolutionary factors, however, could restrict this shifting or redistribution under climate change. These factors include restricted habitat availability, restricted capacity for or barriers to movement, or reduced abundance of colonists due the perturbation effect of climate change. This research project examined the last of these constraints - that climate change could perturb local conditions to which populations are adapted, reducing the likelihood that a species will shift its distribution by diminishing the number of potential colonists. In the most extreme cases, species ranges could collapse over a broad geographic area with no poleward migration and an increased risk of species extinction. Changes in individual species ranges are the processes that drive larger phenomena such as changes in land cover, ecosystem type, and even changes in carbon cycling. For example, consider the poleward range shift and population outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle that has decimated millions of acres of Douglas fir trees in the western US and Canada. Standing dead trees cause forest fires and release vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. The beetle likely shifted its range because it is not locally adapted across its range, and it appears to be limited by winter low temperatures that have steadily increased in the last decades. To understand range and abundance changes like the pine beetle, we must reveal the extent of adaptive variation across species ranges - and the physiological basis of that adaptation - to know if other species will change as readily as the pine beetle. Ecologists tend to assume that range shifts are the dominant

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin — Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy

    PubMed Central

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S.

    2015-01-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  4. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.

    PubMed

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S

    2015-06-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  5. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    PubMed Central

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    Background The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival. PMID:27388896

  6. Climate Change Adaptation in the Urban Environment

    SciTech Connect

    Wilbanks, Thomas J

    2011-01-01

    This overview chapter considers five questions that cut across the four case studies in the section to follow: (1) why are urban environments of particular interest; (2) what does an 'urban environment' mean as a focus for adaptation actions, (3) what do we know about climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials in urban areas; (4) what can we expect in the future with adaptation in urban areas; and (5) what is happening with climate change adaptation in urban areas? After decades of inattention, adaptation to risks and impacts of climate change is now receiving long overdue attention, and it is only natural that a considerable share of this attention is focused on the places where most people live. This section considers climate change adaptation in the urban environment, defined as settings where human populations cluster - generally implying relatively large clusters, but not excluding smaller settlements that operate as coherent geopolitical and economic entities. Consistent with the topic of the book, the emphasis of this overview will be on urban environments in developed countries, but it will also draw on knowledge being developed from urban experiences across the globe.

  7. Urban Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Europe: A Case Study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves. For example, the summer 2003 European heat wave caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. As around 75% of Europe's population resides in urban areas, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of seasonal to decadal-scale climate variability on urban areas and their populations. This study aims at downscaling the spatially coarse resolution CMIP5 climate predictions to the local urban scale and investigating the relation between heat waves and the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect). The resulting heat stress effect is not only driven by climatic variables but also impacted by urban morphology. Moreover, the exposure varies significantly with the geographical location. All this information is coupled with relevant socio-economic datasets such as population density, age structure, etc. focussing on human health. The analyses are conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (BE), Berlin (DE) and Almada (PT) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. The end-user needs have been consolidated in a climate services plan including the production of heat risk exposure maps and the analysis of various scenarios considering e.g. the uncertainty of the global climate predictions, urban expansion over time and the impact of mitigation measures such as green roofs. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for the design and management of climate resilient cities.

  8. Evaluating the contribution of Sustainable Land Management to climate change adaptation and mitigation, and its impacts on Mediterranean ecosystem services.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vente, Joris; Zagaria, Cecilia; Pérez-Cutillas, Pedro; Almagro, Maria; Martínez-Mena, Maria; Baartman, Jantiene; Boix-Fayos, Carolina

    2015-04-01

    Changing climate and land management have strong implications for soil and water resources and for many essential ecosystem services (ES), such as provision of drinking and irrigation water, soil erosion control, and carbon sequestration. Large impacts of climate change are expected in the Mediterranean, characterized by a high dependence on scarce soil and water resources. On the other hand, well designed Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies can reduce the risks associated with climate change, but their design requires knowledge of their multiple effects on ecosystem services under present and future climate scenarios and of possible tradeoffs. Moreover, strategies are only viable if suited to local environmental, socio-economic and cultural conditions, so stakeholder engagement is crucial during their selection, evaluation and implementation. We present preliminary results of a catchment wide assessment of the expected impacts of climate change on water availability in the Segura basin (18800 km2) southeastern Spain. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of past land use changes and the benefits of catchment wide implementation of SLM practices to protect soil and water resources, prevent sedimentation of reservoirs and increase carbon sequestration in soil and vegetation. We used the InVEST modeling framework to simulate the water availability and sediment export under different climate, land use and land management scenarios, and quantified carbon stocks in soil and vegetation. Realistic scenarios of implementation of SLM practices were prepared based on an extensive process of stakeholder engagement and using latest climate change predictions from Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios. Results indicate a strong decrease in water availability in the Segura catchment under expected climate change, with average reductions of upto 60% and large spatial variability. Land use changes (1990 - 2006) resulted in a slight increase in water

  9. Climate change: Cropping system changes and adaptations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change impacts the life of every person; however, there is little comprehensive understanding of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on agriculture. Since our food, feed, fiber, and fruit is derived from agricultural systems, understanding the effects of changing temperature, p...

  10. Projected impacts of climate change on hydrology, water resource use and adaptation needs for the Chu and Talas cross-border rivers basin, Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamil Iliasov, Shamil; Dolgikh, Svetlana; Lipponen, Annukka; Novikov, Viktor

    2014-05-01

    The observed long-term trends, variability and projections of future climate and hydrology of the Chu and Talas transboundary rivers basin were analysed using a common approach for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan parts of the basin. Historical, current and forecasted demands and main uses of water in the basin were elaborated by the joint effort of both countries. Such cooperative approach combining scientific data, water practitioners' outlook with decision making needs allowed the first time to produce a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in the Chu-Talas transboundary rivers basin, identify future needs and develop the initial set of adaptation measures and recommendations. This work was carried out under the project "Promoting Cooperation to Adapt to Climate Change in the Chu and Talas Transboundary Basin", supported by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Climate change projections, including air temperatures and rainfall in the 21st century were determined with a spatial resolution 0.5 degrees based on the integration of 15 climate change model outputs (derived from IPCC's 4th Assessment Report, and partially 5th Assessment Report) combined with locally-designed hydrology and glacier models. A significant increase in surface air temperatures by 3-6°C may be expected in the basin area, especially in summer and autumn. This change is likely to be accompanied by rainfall increase during the cold season and a decrease in the warm half of the year. As a result, a deterioration of moisture conditions during the summer-autumn period is possible. Furthermore, milder winters and hotter summers can be expected. Mountains will likely receive more liquid precipitation, than snow, while the area and volume of glaciers may significantly reduce. Projected changes in climate and glaciers have implications for river hydrology and different sectors of the economy dependent

  11. Evolutionary Adaptations to Dietary Changes

    PubMed Central

    Luca, F.; Perry, G.H.; Di Rienzo, A.

    2014-01-01

    Through cultural innovation and changes in habitat and ecology, there have been a number of major dietary shifts in human evolution, including meat eating, cooking, and those associated with plant and animal domestication. The identification of signatures of adaptations to such dietary changes in the genome of extant primates (including humans) may shed light not only on the evolutionary history of our species, but also on the mechanisms that underlie common metabolic diseases in modern human populations. In this review, we provide a brief overview of the major dietary shifts that occurred during hominin evolution, and we discuss the methods and approaches used to identify signals of natural selection in patterns of sequence variation. We then review the results of studies aimed at detecting the genetic loci that played a major role in dietary adaptations and conclude by outlining the potential of future studies in this area. PMID:20420525

  12. Evolutionary adaptations to dietary changes.

    PubMed

    Luca, F; Perry, G H; Di Rienzo, A

    2010-08-21

    Through cultural innovation and changes in habitat and ecology, there have been a number of major dietary shifts in human evolution, including meat eating, cooking, and those associated with plant and animal domestication. The identification of signatures of adaptations to such dietary changes in the genome of extant primates (including humans) may shed light not only on the evolutionary history of our species, but also on the mechanisms that underlie common metabolic diseases in modern human populations. In this review, we provide a brief overview of the major dietary shifts that occurred during hominin evolution, and we discuss the methods and approaches used to identify signals of natural selection in patterns of sequence variation. We then review the results of studies aimed at detecting the genetic loci that played a major role in dietary adaptations and conclude by outlining the potential of future studies in this area. PMID:20420525

  13. Harnessing nature to help people adapt to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Holly P.; Hole, David G.; Zavaleta, Erika S.

    2012-07-01

    Adapting to climate change is among the biggest challenges humanity faces in the next century. An overwhelming focus of adaptation strategies to reduce climate change-related hazards has been on hard-engineering structures such as sea walls, irrigation infrastructure and dams. Closer attention to a broader spectrum of adaptation options is urgently needed. In particular, ecosystem-based adaptation approaches provide flexible, cost-effective and broadly applicable alternatives for buffering the impacts of climate change, while overcoming many drawbacks of hard infrastructure. As such, they are a critical tool at adaptation planners' disposal for tackling the threats that climate change poses to peoples' lives and livelihoods.

  14. Assessment of the impacts of climate change and brackish irrigation water on rice productivity and evaluation of adaptation measures in Ca Mau province, Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deb, Proloy; Tran, Duong Anh; Udmale, Parmeshwar D.

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the temporal impacts of climate change on rice yield for summer-autumn (SA) and autumn-winter (AW) cropping pattern along with implication of brackish irrigation water for the SA season. Furthermore, evaluation of different agro-adaptations to overcome negative impacts of climate change was also done for Ca Mau province of Vietnam. Climatic variables were derived from six general circulation models which were further bias corrected at Ca Mau city station for three future time periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s). Calibrated AquaCrop 4.0 was used to project the future rice yield under climate change and different salinity levels in irrigation water. Simulation shows a decline in rice yield ranging from 1.60 to 23.69 % and 8.06 to 20.15 % by 2085s relative to baseline climate for A2 and B2 scenarios respectively in the case of the SA cropping season. However, an increase in rice yield ranging from 3.29 to 12.35 % and 6.64 to 17.23 % is observed for the corresponding time period and scenarios. Further simulations for the SA cropping season under climate change and increasing salinity in irrigation water suggest an insignificant increase in yield relative to the yield obtained without irrigation. Moreover, proper management practices, namely forward and early shifts in transplanting dates along with increasing fertilizer application rates, are observed to be beneficial to enhance the rice yield under climate change.

  15. Assessment of the impacts of climate change and brackish irrigation water on rice productivity and evaluation of adaptation measures in Ca Mau province, Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deb, Proloy; Tran, Duong Anh; Udmale, Parmeshwar D.

    2015-06-01

    This study investigates the temporal impacts of climate change on rice yield for summer-autumn (SA) and autumn-winter (AW) cropping pattern along with implication of brackish irrigation water for the SA season. Furthermore, evaluation of different agro-adaptations to overcome negative impacts of climate change was also done for Ca Mau province of Vietnam. Climatic variables were derived from six general circulation models which were further bias corrected at Ca Mau city station for three future time periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s). Calibrated AquaCrop 4.0 was used to project the future rice yield under climate change and different salinity levels in irrigation water. Simulation shows a decline in rice yield ranging from 1.60 to 23.69 % and 8.06 to 20.15 % by 2085s relative to baseline climate for A2 and B2 scenarios respectively in the case of the SA cropping season. However, an increase in rice yield ranging from 3.29 to 12.35 % and 6.64 to 17.23 % is observed for the corresponding time period and scenarios. Further simulations for the SA cropping season under climate change and increasing salinity in irrigation water suggest an insignificant increase in yield relative to the yield obtained without irrigation. Moreover, proper management practices, namely forward and early shifts in transplanting dates along with increasing fertilizer application rates, are observed to be beneficial to enhance the rice yield under climate change.

  16. Modelling climate change impacts on and adaptation strategies for agriculture in Sardinia and Tunisia using AquaCrop and value-at-risk.

    PubMed

    Bird, David Neil; Benabdallah, Sihem; Gouda, Nadine; Hummel, Franz; Koeberl, Judith; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Meyer, Swen; Prettenthaler, Franz; Soddu, Antonino; Woess-Gallasch, Susanne

    2016-02-01

    In Europe, there is concern that climate change will cause significant impacts around the Mediterranean. The goals of this study are to quantify the economic risk to crop production, to demonstrate the variability of yield by soil texture and climate model and to investigate possible adaptation strategies. In the Rio Mannu di San Sperate watershed, located in Sardinia (Italy) we investigate production of wheat, a rainfed crop. In the Chiba watershed located in Cap Bon (Tunisia), we analyze irrigated tomato production. We find, using the FAO model AquaCrop that crop production will decrease significantly in a future climate (2040-2070) as compared to the present without adaptation measures. Using "value-at-risk", we show that production should be viewed in a statistical manner. Wheat yields in Sardinia are modelled to decrease by 64% on clay loams, and to increase by 8% and 26% respectively on sandy loams and sandy clay loams. Assuming constant irrigation, tomatoes sown in August in Cap Bon are modelled to have a 45% chance of crop failure on loamy sands; a 39% decrease in yields on sandy clay loams; and a 12% increase in yields on sandy loams. For tomatoes sown in March; sandy clay loams will fail 81% of the time; on loamy sands the crop yields will be 63% less while on sandy loams, the yield will increase by 12%. However, if one assume 10% less water available for irrigation then tomatoes sown in March are not viable. Some adaptation strategies will be able to counteract the modelled crop losses. Increasing the amount of irrigation one strategy however this may not be sustainable. Changes in agricultural management such as changing the planting date of wheat to coincide with changing rainfall patterns in Sardinia or mulching of tomatoes in Tunisia can be effective at reducing crop losses. PMID:26187862

  17. [Review on farmer's climate change perception and adaptation].

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xue-Yan

    2014-08-01

    As the most serious challenge that the humankind is facing, climate change has been strengthened vulnerability in many countries and regions, and how to scientifically adapt to climate change has become the global issue of common concern to the international community today. The impact of climate change on farming people depending on the nature resource is especially remarkable, and understanding farmers' adaptation mechanism and process is very important to effectively make the adaptation policy. As the basis of understanding the human response action, public perception has provided a new perspective to verify the farmers' adaptation mechanism and process about climate change. Based on the recent theoretical and empirical developments of farmers' perception and adaptation, the impact of climate change on the farmers' livelihood was analyzed, and the main adaptation obstacles which the farmers faced in response to climate change were summarized systematically. Then, we analyzed the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation, illuminated the key cognitive elements in the process of the farmers' climate change adaptation and introduced the framework to analyze the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation. At last, this review put forward the key questions which should be considered in study on the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation. PMID:25509101

  18. Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient

    PubMed Central

    Kates, Robert W.; Travis, William R.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.

    2012-01-01

    All human–environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations. PMID:22509036

  19. Impacts of Climate Change and of Anthropisation on Water Resources: from the Risk Assessment to Adaptation, the Case of the Seine Basin (including Paris, France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habets, F.; Viennot, P.; Thierion, C.; Vergnes, J. P.; Ait Kaci, A.; Caballero, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Seine river, located in the temperate climate of northern France and flowing over a large sedimentary basins that hosts multilayer aquifers, is characterized by small temporal variations of its discharge. However, the presence of a megacity (Paris) and a wide area of intensive agriculture combined with climate change puts pressure on the water resources both in terms of quality and quantity. Previous research projects have estimated the impact of climate change on the water resource of the Seine basin, with the uncertainties associated to climate projections, hydrological models or downscaling methods. The water resource was projected to decrease by -14 % ± 10 % in 2050 and -28 +/-16% in 2100. This led to new studies that focus on the combined impact of climate change and adaptations. The tested adaptations are: a reduction of the groundwater abstractions, evolution of land use, development of small dams to « harvest water » or artificial recharge of aquifers. The communication of the results of these projects to stakeholders have led to the development on new indicators that better express the risk on the water resource management, especially for the groundwater. For instance maps of the evolution of piezometric head are difficult to interpret. To better express the risk evolution, a new indicator was defined: the evolution of the groundwater crisis duration, ie, the period when the charge of the aquifer is below the crisis piezometric level defined by the stakeholders. Such crisis piezometric levels are used to help defining the period when the groundwater abstraction should be reduced. Such maps are more efficient to communicate with water resources managers. This communication will focus on the results from the MEDDE Explore 2070 and ANR Oracle projects.

  20. Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Frances C.; Lobell, David B.

    2014-07-01

    Projecting the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires knowing or assuming how farmers will adapt. However, empirical estimates of the effectiveness of this private adaptation are scarce and the sensitivity of impact assessments to adaptation assumptions is not well understood. Here we assess the potential effectiveness of private farmer adaptation in Europe by jointly estimating both short-run and long-run response functions using time-series and cross-sectional variation in subnational yield and profit data. The difference between the impacts of climate change projected using the short-run (limited adaptation) and long-run (substantial adaptation) response curves can be interpreted as the private adaptation potential. We find high adaptation potential for maize to future warming but large negative effects and only limited adaptation potential for wheat and barley. Overall, agricultural profits could increase slightly under climate change if farmers adapt but could decrease in many areas if there is no adaptation. Decomposing the variance in 2040 projected yields and farm profits using an ensemble of 13 climate model runs, we find that the rate at which farmers will adapt to rising temperatures is an important source of uncertainty.

  1. Changes in Rumen Microbial Community Composition during Adaption to an In Vitro System and the Impact of Different Forages.

    PubMed

    Lengowski, Melanie B; Zuber, Karin H R; Witzig, Maren; Möhring, Jens; Boguhn, Jeannette; Rodehutscord, Markus

    2016-01-01

    This study examined ruminal microbial community composition alterations during initial adaption to and following incubation in a rumen simulation system (Rusitec) using grass or corn silage as substrates. Samples were collected from fermenter liquids at 0, 2, 4, 12, 24, and 48 h and from feed residues at 0, 24, and 48 h after initiation of incubation (period 1) and on day 13 (period 2). Microbial DNA was extracted and real-time qPCR was used to quantify differences in the abundance of protozoa, methanogens, total bacteria, Fibrobacter succinogenes, Ruminococcus albus, Ruminobacter amylophilus, Prevotella bryantii, Selenomonas ruminantium, and Clostridium aminophilum. We found that forage source and sampling time significantly influenced the ruminal microbial community. The gene copy numbers of most microbial species (except C. aminophilum) decreased in period 1; however, adaption continued through period 2 for several species. The addition of fresh substrate in period 2 led to increasing copy numbers of all microbial species during the first 2-4 h in the fermenter liquid except protozoa, which showed a postprandial decrease. Corn silage enhanced the growth of R. amylophilus and F. succinogenes, and grass silage enhanced R. albus, P. bryantii, and C. aminophilum. No effect of forage source was detected on total bacteria, protozoa, S. ruminantium, or methanogens or on total gas production, although grass silage enhanced methane production. This study showed that the Rusitec provides a stable system after an adaption phase that should last longer than 48 h, and that the forage source influenced several microbial species. PMID:26928330

  2. Changes in Rumen Microbial Community Composition during Adaption to an In Vitro System and the Impact of Different Forages

    PubMed Central

    Lengowski, Melanie B.; Zuber, Karin H. R.; Witzig, Maren; Möhring, Jens; Boguhn, Jeannette; Rodehutscord, Markus

    2016-01-01

    This study examined ruminal microbial community composition alterations during initial adaption to and following incubation in a rumen simulation system (Rusitec) using grass or corn silage as substrates. Samples were collected from fermenter liquids at 0, 2, 4, 12, 24, and 48 h and from feed residues at 0, 24, and 48 h after initiation of incubation (period 1) and on day 13 (period 2). Microbial DNA was extracted and real-time qPCR was used to quantify differences in the abundance of protozoa, methanogens, total bacteria, Fibrobacter succinogenes, Ruminococcus albus, Ruminobacter amylophilus, Prevotella bryantii, Selenomonas ruminantium, and Clostridium aminophilum. We found that forage source and sampling time significantly influenced the ruminal microbial community. The gene copy numbers of most microbial species (except C. aminophilum) decreased in period 1; however, adaption continued through period 2 for several species. The addition of fresh substrate in period 2 led to increasing copy numbers of all microbial species during the first 2–4 h in the fermenter liquid except protozoa, which showed a postprandial decrease. Corn silage enhanced the growth of R. amylophilus and F. succinogenes, and grass silage enhanced R. albus, P. bryantii, and C. aminophilum. No effect of forage source was detected on total bacteria, protozoa, S. ruminantium, or methanogens or on total gas production, although grass silage enhanced methane production. This study showed that the Rusitec provides a stable system after an adaption phase that should last longer than 48 h, and that the forage source influenced several microbial species. PMID:26928330

  3. The impact of climate change and sustainable land management based adaptation on hydrology and soil erosion of a large semiarid catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eekhout, Joris; de Vente, Joris; Terink, Wilco

    2016-04-01

    Climate change has strong implications for many essential ecosystem services, such as provision of drinking and irrigation water, soil erosion and flood control. Especially large impacts are expected in the Mediterranean, already characterised by frequent floods and droughts, and for which less rainfall and more extreme weather events are projected for the coming decades. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies are increasingly promoted to reduce the risks associated with climate change on ecosystem services. However, there is surprisingly little known about their impacts and trade-offs on ecosystem services at regional scales. The aim of this research is to provide insight in the potential of SLM for climate change adaptation, focusing on regional-scale impacts on soil and water resources. We applied the processed-based spatially-distributed hydrological model SPHY (Spatial Processes in HYdrology) on a daily timescale to the semi-arid Segura River catchment (18,800 km2) in SE Spain. In addition, we coupled the MUSLE soil erosion equation to the hydrological model to simulate soil erosion and sediment transport. We run the model for three periods: one historic (1981-2000) and two future scenarios (2031-2050 and 2081-2100), with and without implementation of SLM strategies. Climate input data for the historic scenario was based on interpolated measured data and for the future scenarios on output from regional climate models for different emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Realistic scenarios of SLM practices were based on a previous stakeholder consultation process. Analysis of the regional climate models under the most extreme emission scenario showed an average decrease of yearly precipitation of 97 mm (28%) and an increase of average temperature of 4.8 °C (29%). Preliminary model results, based on these scenarios, show a maximum 80% decrease in discharge under future climate conditions. Wide-scale implementation of SLM can effectively contribute to

  4. Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masutomi, Yuji; Hanasaki, Naota; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Shiogama, Hideo; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

    2015-09-01

    Agricultural adaptation is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and to maintain food production. However, few studies have assessed the course of adaptation along with the progress of climate change in each of the current major food producing countries. Adaptation pathways, which describe the temporal sequences of adaptations, are helpful for illustrating the timing and intensity of the adaptation required. Here we present adaptation pathways in the current major wheat-producing countries, based on sequential introduction of the minimum adaptation measures necessary to maintain current wheat yields through the 21st century. We considered two adaptation options: (i) expanding irrigation infrastructure; and (ii) switching crop varieties and developing new heat-tolerant varieties. We find that the adaptation pathways differ markedly among the countries. The adaptation pathways are sensitive to both the climate model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system, and the degree of sensitivity differs among countries. Finally, the negative impacts of climate change could be moderated by implementing adaptations steadily according to forecasts of the necessary future adaptations, as compared to missing the appropriate timing to implement adaptations.

  5. Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masutomi, Yuji; Hanasaki, Naota; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Shiogama, Hideo; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural adaptation is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and to maintain food production. However, few studies have assessed the course of adaptation along with the progress of climate change in each of the current major food producing countries. Adaptation pathways, which describe the temporal sequences of adaptations, are helpful for illustrating the timing and intensity of the adaptation required. Here we present adaptation pathways in the current major wheat-producing countries, based on sequential introduction of the minimum adaptation measures necessary to maintain current wheat yields through the 21st century. We considered two adaptation options: (i) expanding irrigation infrastructure; and (ii) switching crop varieties and developing new heat-tolerant varieties. We find that the adaptation pathways differ markedly among the countries. The adaptation pathways are sensitive to both the climate model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system, and the degree of sensitivity differs among countries. Finally, the negative impacts of climate change could be moderated by implementing adaptations steadily according to forecasts of the necessary future adaptations, as compared to missing the appropriate timing to implement adaptations. PMID:26373877

  6. Agriculture and climate change: Mitigation opportunities and adaptation imperatives

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Maintenance of critical agroecosystem functions will require proactive responses through the strategic application of management practices that mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and/or adapt to impacts from climate change. Numerous management strategies currently exist to mitigate GHG emissio...

  7. Climate Change Adaptation: Putting Principles into Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausden, Malcolm

    2014-10-01

    Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years. Significant long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.

  8. IPCC Working Group II: Impacts and Adaptation Part I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2007-12-01

    The IPCC (as opposed to the UN Framework Convention) defines climate change as" any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity". The IPCC Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability) was charged with assessing the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of vulnerability to climate change, and, the negative and positive consequences for ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health. The Working Group II report focused on the following issues for different sectors and regions (e.g. water, agriculture, biodiversity) and communities (coastal, island, etc.): · The role of adaptation in reducing vulnerability and impacts, · Assessment of adaptation capacity, options and constraints, and · Enhancing adaptation practice and operations. This presentation will address the following questions in the context of the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG II: · What are the barriers, knowledge gaps, and opportunities for impacts assessments? · How are decisions about adaptation being made, and what types of adaptation strategies are being undertaken? · What are good adaptation practices and how are they learned over time? Examples will be drawn from the freshwater resources, small islands and adaptation chapters to which the presenter contributed. Many lessons have been identified but few have been implemented or evaluated over time. Adaptation occurs in the context of multiple stresses. Adaptation will be important in coping with early impacts in the near-term and continue to be important as our climate changes, regardless of how that change is derived. It is important to note that unmitigated climate change could, in the long term, exceed the capacity of different natural, managed and human systems to adapt. The assessment leads to the following conclusions: · Adaptation to climate change is already taking place, but on a limited basis · Adaptation measures

  9. The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Njoto, Sukrisno; Howe, Charles W.

    1991-01-01

    Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

  10. Renewable Energies and Enhanced Energy Efficiencies: Mitigation/Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts on Cyprus and in the Eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    The Eastern Mediterranean in general and Cyprus in particular are considered "hot spots" of future climate change. This will become manifest through an increase in the number and duration of drought events and extended hot-spells. The need to cope with the impacts of climate change will lead to enhanced requirements for cooling of private and public housing and growing demands for potable water derived from seawater desalination. This in turn will cause increasing pressures on electricity production and will result in additional strain on the energy sector in the region. For Cyprus, the current electricity production is entirely based on fossil-fuel fired power plants. However, the use of conventional energy sources is clearly an undesirable option. It enhances the economic burden on energy consumers and at the same time increases Cyprus' dependency on external providers of petroleum products. Moreover, it leads to growing emissions of carbon dioxide and thereby worsens Cyprus' already challenged greenhouse gas emission budget. While current emissions amount to about 9.9 Mill. t of CO2, the total allowance according to EU regulations lies at 5.5 Mill. t. The current building stock on Cyprus lacks basic measures for energy efficiency. This is particularly noteworthy with regard to insufficient insulation of buildings, which causes significant amounts of energy to be expanded for cooling. In light of these facts, an increased use of renewable energies and measures to enhance energy efficiencies in the built environment constitute important elements of a stringent and effective mitigation/adaptation strategy to climate change. The Eastern Mediterranean is among the most suitable location for the utilization of solar energy in Europe. A global direct normal irradiance of more than 1 800 kWh/m2 on Cyprus offers a renewable electricity potential of app. 20 to 23 TWh/yr when concentrated solar power (CSP) technology is employed. With regard to enhanced energy efficiency

  11. Impact assessment of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and mustard (Brassica spp.) production and its adaptation strategies in different districts of Gujarat, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, V.; Patel, H. R.; Yadav, S. B.; Patil, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    Gujarat is the western-most state of India with a long (1600 km) sea coast on the Arabian Sea. Average annual rainfall ranges from as high as 1900 mm in the sub-humid southeast to as low as 250 mm in the arid north. There are three distinct crop seasons- rainy (June to September), winter (Oct.-Nov. through Feb.-March) and summer (Feb-March through May-June). Wheat and mustard are grown during winter seasons. The past climatic records suggested increasing trends in rainfall( 2 to 5 mm per year), maximum (0.03 to 0.05 0C per year) and minimum temperatures (0.02 to 0.05 0C per year) at most of places in Gujarat. But the minimum temperature is fould to be increasing significantly at all the locations. This affects the winter season crops viz. wheat and mustard adversely. Simulation results with DSSAT CERES-wheat model revealed that with increase in temperature by 2 0C in different months (November to February) the decrease in wheat yield is observed between 7 to 29 per cent. The impact of increase in maximum temperature during early (November) and late (February) is less (<12.5 %) than that during active vegetative and reproductive period (December and January; >24.8 %). The climate change projections during 2071-2100 using PRECIS output suggested that there would be increase in maximum temperature by 3.2 to 5.2 0C in different districts of Gujarat over baseline period of 1961-1990 while minimum temperature is project to increase by 2.8 to 5.8 0C. Rainfall is also projected to increase by 28 to 70 per cent in different districts. The impact of climate change on wheat would be reduction in its duration by 14-20 days and the grain yield would be reduced by 20-55 per cent in different districts. In case of mustard crops the duration of crop would be reduced by 11 to 16 days and seed yield would be reduced by 32-50 per cent. In order to mitigate the ill effect of climate change, various adaptation strategies vis change in dates of sowing, change in variety, additional

  12. EMS adaptation for climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, C.; Chang, Y.; Wen, J.; Tsai, M.

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to find an appropriate scenario of pre-hospital transportation of an emergency medical service (EMS) system for burdensome casualties resulting from extreme climate events. A case of natural catastrophic events in Taiwan, 88 wind-caused disasters, was reviewed and analyzed. A sequential-conveyance method was designed to shorten the casualty transportation time and to promote the efficiency of ambulance services. A proposed mobile emergency medical center was first constructed in a safe area, but nearby the disaster area. The Center consists of professional medical personnel who process the triage of incoming patients and take care of casualties with minor injuries. Ambulances in the Center were ready to sequentially convey the casualties with severer conditions to an assigned hospital that is distant from the disaster area for further treatment. The study suggests that if we could construct a spacious and well-equipped mobile emergency medical center, only a small portion of casualties would need to be transferred to distant hospitals. This would reduce the over-crowding problem in hospital ERs. First-line ambulances only reciprocated between the mobile emergency medical center and the disaster area, saving time and shortening the working distances. Second-line ambulances were highly regulated between the mobile emergency medical center and requested hospitals. The ambulance service of the sequential-conveyance method was found to be more efficient than the conventional method and was concluded to be more profitable and reasonable on paper in adapting to climate change. Therefore, additional practical work should be launched to collect more precise quantitative data.

  13. A roadmap for climate change adaptation in Sweden's forests: addressing wicked problems using adaptive management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We

  14. RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and economic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents nine fundamental principles that ...

  15. 2012 NEHA/UL sabbatical report: vulnerability to potential impacts of climate change: adaptation and risk communication strategies for environmental health practitioners in the United Kingdom.

    PubMed

    Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut

    2014-04-01

    Climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning have become increasingly important to environmental health practitioners (EHPs). The NEHA/UL Sabbatical Exchange Award allowed me to investigate how EHPs in the UK are incorporating climate change planning and communication strategies into their work. Projected climate change risks in the UK include flooding, extreme heat, water shortages, severe weather, decreased air quality, and changes in vectors. Despite public perception and funding challenges, all the local government representatives with whom I met incorporated climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning into their work. The mandated Community Risk Register serves as a key planning document developed by each local government authority and is a meaningful way to look at potential climate change health risks. Adaptation and sustainability were common threads in my meetings. These often took the form of "going green" with transportation, energy efficiency, conserving resources, and building design because the efforts made sense monetarily as future cost savings. Communication strategies targeted a variety of audiences (EHPs, non-EHP government employees, politicians, and the general public) using a broad range of communication channels (professional training, lobbying, conferences and fairs, publications, print materials, Internet resources, social media, billboards, etc). PMID:24749223

  16. "Climate change impact on water resources - a challenge for IWRM". BRAHMATWINN - Twinning European and South Asian River Basins to enhance capacity and implement adaptive management approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartosch, A.; Pechstädt, J.; Müller Schmied, H.; Flügel, W.-A.

    2009-04-01

    BRAHMATWINN addresses climate change impact of the hydrology of two macro-scale river basins having headwaters in alpine mountain massifs. The project will elaborate on the consequential vulnerability of present IWRM and river basin management that have been persistent in these basins during the past decades and will develop tested approaches and technologies for adaptive IWRM and resilience. The overall objective of BRAHMATWINN is to enhance and improve capacity to carry out a harmonized integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach as addressed by the European Water Initiative (EWI) in headwater river systems of alpine mountain massifs in respect to impacts from likely climate change, and to transfer professional IWRM expertise, approaches and tools based on case studies carried out in twinning European and Asian river basins, the Upper Danube River Basin (UDRB) and the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin (UBRB). Sustainable IWRM in river basins of such kind face common problems: (i) floods e.g. during spring melt or heavy storms and droughts during summer; (ii) competing water demands for agriculture, hydropower, rural, urban and industrial development, and the environment; (iii) pollution from point as well as diffuse sources; and (iv) socio-economic and legal issues related to water allocation. Besides those common topics both basins also differ in other issues requiring the adaptation of the IWRM tools; these are for example climate conditions, the density of monitoring network, political framework and trans-boundary conflicts. An IWRM has to consider all water-related issues like the securing of water supply for the population in sufficient quantity and quality, the protection of the ecological function of water bodies and it has to consider the probability of natural hazards like floods and droughts. Furthermore the resource water should be threatened in a way that the needs of future generations can be satisfied. Sustainable development is one of the

  17. The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, James D.; McDowell, Graham; Jones, Julie

    2014-10-01

    The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts.

  18. Engaging a moving target: Adapting to rates of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shayegh, S.; Caldeira, K.; Moreno-Cruz, J.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is affecting the planet and its human and natural systems at an increasing rate. As temperatures continue to rise, the international community has increasingly been considering adaptation measures to prepare for future climate change. However, most discussion around adaptation strategies has focused on preparedness for some expected amount of climate change impacts, e.g. 2 meters sea level rise. In this study, we discuss adaptation to rates of change as an alternative conceptual framework for thinking about adaptation. Adaptation is not only about adapting to amounts of change, but the rate at which these changes occur is also critically important. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal coastal investment in the face of ongoing sea level rise. Sea level rise threatens coastal assets. Finite resources could be devoted to building infrastructure further inland or to building coastal defense systems. A possible policy response could be to create a "no-build" coastal buffer zone that anticipates a future higher sea level. We present a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among various important factors (rate of sea level rise, discount rate, capital depreciation rate, attractiveness of coastal land, etc). For some cases, strategies that combine periodic defensive investments (e.g. dikes) with planned retreat can maximize welfare when adapting to rates of climate change. In other cases, planned retreat may be optimal. It is important to prepare for ongoing increasing amounts of climate change. Preparing for a fixed amount of climate change can lead to a suboptimal solution. Climate is likely to continue changing throughout this century and beyond. To reduce adverse climate impacts, ecosystems and human systems will need to continuously adapt to a moving target.

  19. Adaptive Landscapes of Resistance Genes Change as Antibiotic Concentrations Change.

    PubMed

    Mira, Portia M; Meza, Juan C; Nandipati, Anna; Barlow, Miriam

    2015-10-01

    Most studies on the evolution of antibiotic resistance are focused on selection for resistance at lethal antibiotic concentrations, which has allowed the detection of mutant strains that show strong phenotypic traits. However, solely focusing on lethal concentrations of antibiotics narrowly limits our perspective of antibiotic resistance evolution. New high-resolution competition assays have shown that resistant bacteria are selected at relatively low concentrations of antibiotics. This finding is important because sublethal concentrations of antibiotics are found widely in patients undergoing antibiotic therapies, and in nonmedical conditions such as wastewater treatment plants, and food and water used in agriculture and farming. To understand the impacts of sublethal concentrations on selection, we measured 30 adaptive landscapes for a set of TEM β-lactamases containing all combinations of the four amino acid substitutions that exist in TEM-50 for 15 β-lactam antibiotics at multiple concentrations. We found that there are many evolutionary pathways within this collection of landscapes that lead to nearly every TEM-genotype that we studied. While it is known that the pathways change depending on the type of β-lactam, this study demonstrates that the landscapes including fitness optima also change dramatically as the concentrations of antibiotics change. Based on these results we conclude that the presence of multiple concentrations of β-lactams in an environment result in many different adaptive landscapes through which pathways to nearly every genotype are available. Ultimately this may increase the diversity of genotypes in microbial populations. PMID:26113371

  20. Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans in California: A Guide and Online Visualization Tool for Planners to Incorporate Risks of Climate Change Impacts in Policy and Decision-Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, W.; Tucker, K.; DeFlorio, J.

    2012-12-01

    for the strategy framework. The strategy framework for MPOs and RTPAs is used to: 1) Assess the relative risks to their transportation system infrastructure and services of different climate stressors (sea level rise, temperature changes, snow melt, precipita¬tion changes, flooding, extreme weather events); 2) Conduct an asset inventory and vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure; 3) Prioritize segments and facilities for adaptation action; 4) Identify appropriate and cost-effective adaptation strategies; and 5) Incorporate climate impact considerations into future long-range transportation planning and investment decisions. This framework complements the broader planning and investment processes that MPOs and RTPAs already manage. It recognizes the varying capacities and resources among MPOs and RTPAs and provide methods that can be used by organizations seeking to conduct in-depth analysis or a more sketch-level assessment.

  1. Organizational Adaptation: Managing in Complexly Changing Environments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zammuto, Raymond F.

    A model of strategic adaptation that focuses on how organizations adapt to both conditions of growth and decline is presented. The theoretical structure underlying the model is considered, with attention to organizations, niches, and environments, as well as environmental change and evolving niches. The model attempts to reconcile the perspectives…

  2. Climate Change and Agriculture: Effects and Adaptation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This document is a synthesis of science literature on the effects of climate change on agriculture and issues associated with agricultural adaptation to climate change. Information is presented on how long-term changes in air temperatures, precipitation, and atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide wi...

  3. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    SciTech Connect

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  4. Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Public Health Practice: Using Adaptive Management to Increase Adaptive Capacity and Build Resilience

    PubMed Central

    McDowell, Julia Z.; Luber, George

    2011-01-01

    Background: Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems. Objectives: We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate–health challenges that may lie outside public health’s coping range, and consider changes in practice that could increase public health’s adaptive capacity. Methods: We conducted a substantive, interdisciplinary literature review focused on climate change adaptation in public health, social learning, and management of socioeconomic systems exhibiting dynamic complexity. Discussion: There are two competing views of how public health should engage climate change adaptation. Perspectives differ on whether climate change will primarily amplify existing hazards, requiring enhancement of existing public health functions, or present categorically distinct threats requiring innovative management strategies. In some contexts, distinctly climate-sensitive health threats may overwhelm public health’s adaptive capacity. Addressing these threats will require increased emphasis on institutional learning, innovative management strategies, and new and improved tools. Adaptive management, an iterative framework that embraces uncertainty, uses modeling, and integrates learning, may be a useful approach. We illustrate its application to extreme heat in an urban setting. Conclusions: Increasing public health capacity will be necessary for certain climate–health threats. Focusing efforts to increase adaptive capacity in specific areas, promoting institutional learning, embracing adaptive management, and developing tools to facilitate these processes are important priorities and can improve the resilience of local public health systems to climate change. PMID:21997387

  5. Beyond Adapting to Climate Change: Embedding Adaptation in Responses to Multiple Threats and Stresses

    SciTech Connect

    Wilbanks, Thomas J; Kates, Dr. Robert W.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change impacts are already being experienced in every region of the United States and every part of the world most severely in Arctic regions and adaptation is needed now. Although climate change adaptation research is still in its infancy, significant adaptation planning in the United States has already begun in a number of localities. This article seeks to broaden the adaptation effort by integrating it with broader frameworks of hazards research, sustainability science, and community and regional resilience. To extend the range of experience, we draw from ongoing case studies in the Southeastern United States and the environmental history of New Orleans to consider the multiple threats and stresses that all communities and regions experience. Embedding climate adaptation in responses to multiple threats and stresses helps us to understand climate change impacts, themselves often products of multiple stresses, to achieve community acceptance of needed adaptations as co-benefits of addressing multiple threats, and to mainstream the process of climate adaptation through the larger envelope of social relationships, communication channels, and broad-based awareness of needs for risk management that accompany community resilience.

  6. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  7. Rapid adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Hancock, Angela M

    2016-08-01

    In recent years, amid growing concerns that changing climate is affecting species distributions and ecosystems, predicting responses to rapid environmental change has become a major goal. In this issue, Franks and colleagues take a first step towards this objective (Franks et al. 2016). They examine genomewide signatures of selection in populations of Brassica rapa after a severe multiyear drought. Together with other authors, Franks had previously shown that flowering time was reduced after this particular drought and that the reduction was genetically encoded. Now, the authors have sequenced previously stored samples to compare allele frequencies before and after the drought and identify the loci with the most extreme shifts in frequencies. The loci they identify largely differ between populations, suggesting that different genetic variants may be responsible for reduction in flowering time in the two populations. PMID:27463237

  8. Living with climate change: avoiding conflict through adaptation in Malawi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jørstad, H.; Webersik, C.

    2015-11-01

    In recent years, research on climate change and human security has received much attention among policy makers and academia alike. Communities in the Global South that rely on an intact resource base will especially be affected by predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. The objective of this article is to better understand under what conditions local communities can adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change and avoid conflict over the loss of resources. The empirical part of the paper answers the question to what extent local communities in the Chilwa Basin in Malawi have experienced climate change and how they are affected by it. Further, it assesses one of Malawi's adaptation projects designed to build resilience to a warmer and more variable climate, and points to some of its limitations. This research shows that not all adaptation strategies are suited to cope with a warmer and more variable climate.

  9. Rewarding imperfect motor performance reduces adaptive changes.

    PubMed

    van der Kooij, K; Overvliet, K E

    2016-06-01

    Could a pat on the back affect motor adaptation? Recent studies indeed suggest that rewards can boost motor adaptation. However, the rewards used were typically reward gradients that carried quite detailed information about performance. We investigated whether simple binary rewards affected how participants learned to correct for a visual rotation of performance feedback in a 3D pointing task. To do so, we asked participants to align their unseen hand with virtual target cubes in alternating blocks with and without spatial performance feedback. Forty participants were assigned to one of two groups: a 'spatial only' group, in which the feedback consisted of showing the (perturbed) endpoint of the hand, or to a 'spatial & reward' group, in which a reward could be received in addition to the spatial feedback. In addition, six participants were tested in a 'reward only' group. Binary reward was given when the participants' hand landed in a virtual 'hit area' that was adapted to individual performance to reward about half the trials. The results show a typical pattern of adaptation in both the 'spatial only' and the 'spatial & reward' groups, whereas the 'reward only' group was unable to adapt. The rewards did not affect the overall pattern of adaptation in the 'spatial & reward' group. However, on a trial-by-trial basis, the rewards reduced adaptive changes to spatial errors. PMID:26758721

  10. Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Liu, De Li; Macadam, Ian; Kelly, Georgina

    2013-07-01

    The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer's training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short

  11. Changes in adaptive capacity of Kenyan fishing communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinner, Joshua E.; Huchery, Cindy; Hicks, Christina C.; Daw, Tim M.; Marshall, Nadine; Wamukota, Andrew; Allison, Edward H.

    2015-09-01

    Coastal communities are particularly at risk from the impacts of a changing climate. Building the capacity of coastal communities to cope with and recover from a changing environment is a critical means to reducing their vulnerability. Yet, few studies have quantitatively examined adaptive capacity in such communities. Here, we build on an emerging body of research examining adaptive capacity in natural resource-dependent communities in two important ways. We examine how nine indicators of adaptive capacity vary: among segments of Kenyan fishing communities; and over time. Socially disaggregated analyses found that the young, those who had migrated, and those who do not participate in decision-making seemed least prepared for adapting to change in these resource-dependent communities. These results highlight the most vulnerable segments of society when it comes to preparing for and adapting to change in resource-dependent communities. Comparisons through time showed that aspects of adaptive capacity seemed to have increased between 2008 and 2012 owing to higher observed community infrastructure and perceived availability of credit.

  12. Development of Climate Change Adaptation Platform using Spatial Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, J.; Oh, K. Y.; Lee, M. J.; Han, W. J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change adaptation has attracted growing attention with the recent extreme weather conditions that affect people around the world. More and more countries, including the Republic of Korea, have begun to hatch adaptation plan to resolve these matters of great concern. They all, meanwhile, have mentioned that it should come first to integrate climate information in all analysed areas. That's because climate information is not independently made through one source; that is to say, the climate information is connected one another in a complicated way. That is the reason why we have to promote integrated climate change adaptation platform before setting up climate change adaptation plan. Therefore, the large-scaled project has been actively launched and worked on. To date, we researched 620 literatures and interviewed 51 government organizations. Based on the results of the researches and interviews, we obtained 2,725 impacts about vulnerability assessment information such as Monitoring and Forecasting, Health, Disaster, Agriculture, Forest, Water Management, Ecosystem, Ocean/Fisheries, Industry/Energy. Among 2,725 impacts, 995 impacts are made into a database until now. This database is made up 3 sub categories like Climate-Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, presented by IPCC. Based on the constructed database, vulnerability assessments were carried out in order to evaluate climate change capacity of local governments all over the country. These assessments were conducted by using web-based vulnerability assessment tool which was newly developed through this project. These results have shown that, metropolitan areas like Seoul, Pusan, Inchon, and so on have high risks more than twice than rural areas. Acknowledgements: The authors appreciate the support that this study has received from "Development of integrated model for climate change impact and vulnerability assessment and strengthening the framework for model implementation ", an initiative of the

  13. Monitoring adaptive genetic responses to environmental change.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Michael M; Olivieri, Isabelle; Waller, Donald M; Nielsen, Einar E

    2012-03-01

    Widespread environmental changes including climate change, selective harvesting and landscape alterations now greatly affect selection regimes for most organisms. How animals and plants can adapt to these altered environments via contemporary evolution is thus of strong interest. We discuss how to use genetic monitoring to study adaptive responses via repeated analysis of the same populations over time, distinguishing between phenotypic and molecular genetics approaches. After describing monitoring designs, we develop explicit criteria for demonstrating adaptive responses, which include testing for selection and establishing clear links between genetic and environmental change. We then review a few exemplary studies that explore adaptive responses to climate change in Drosophila, selective responses to hunting and fishing, and contemporary evolution in Daphnia using resurrected resting eggs. We further review a broader set of 44 studies to assess how well they meet the proposed criteria, and conclude that only 23% fulfill all criteria. Approximately half (43%) of these studies failed to rule out the alternative hypothesis of replacement by a different, better-adapted population. Likewise, 34% of the studies based on phenotypic variation did not test for selection as opposed to drift. These shortcomings can be addressed via improved experimental designs and statistical testing. We foresee monitoring of adaptive responses as a future valuable tool in conservation biology, for identifying populations unable to evolve at sufficiently high rates and for identifying possible donor populations for genetic rescue. Technological advances will further augment the realization of this potential, especially next-generation sequencing technologies that allow for monitoring at the level of whole genomes. PMID:22269082

  14. Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgeson, Lucien; Maslin, Mark; Poessinouw, Martyn; Howard, Steve

    2016-06-01

    Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Policymakers need to understand current adaptation spend to plan comprehensively and effectively. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined `adaptation economy', we analyse current climate change adaptation efforts in ten megacities. In all cases, the adaptation economy remains a small part of the overall economy, representing a maximum of 0.33% of a city's gross domestic product (here referred to as GDPc). Differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed, emerging and developing countries, ranging from #15 million to #1,600 million. Comparing key subsectors, we demonstrate the differences in adaptation profiles. Developing cities have higher proportional spend on health and agriculture, whereas developed cities have higher spend on energy and water. Spend per capita and percentage of GDPc comparisons more clearly show disparities between cities. Developing country cities spend half the proportion of GDPc and significantly less per capita, suggesting that adaptation spend is driven by wealth rather than the number of vulnerable people. This indicates that current adaptation activities are insufficient in major population centres in developing and emerging economies.

  15. Impact of pre-adapted HIV transmission.

    PubMed

    Carlson, Jonathan M; Du, Victor Y; Pfeifer, Nico; Bansal, Anju; Tan, Vincent Y F; Power, Karen; Brumme, Chanson J; Kreimer, Anat; DeZiel, Charles E; Fusi, Nicolo; Schaefer, Malinda; Brockman, Mark A; Gilmour, Jill; Price, Matt A; Kilembe, William; Haubrich, Richard; John, Mina; Mallal, Simon; Shapiro, Roger; Frater, John; Harrigan, P Richard; Ndung'u, Thumbi; Allen, Susan; Heckerman, David; Sidney, John; Allen, Todd M; Goulder, Philip J R; Brumme, Zabrina L; Hunter, Eric; Goepfert, Paul A

    2016-06-01

    Human leukocyte antigen class I (HLA)-restricted CD8(+) T lymphocyte (CTL) responses are crucial to HIV-1 control. Although HIV can evade these responses, the longer-term impact of viral escape mutants remains unclear, as these variants can also reduce intrinsic viral fitness. To address this, we here developed a metric to determine the degree of HIV adaptation to an HLA profile. We demonstrate that transmission of viruses that are pre-adapted to the HLA molecules expressed in the recipient is associated with impaired immunogenicity, elevated viral load and accelerated CD4(+) T cell decline. Furthermore, the extent of pre-adaptation among circulating viruses explains much of the variation in outcomes attributed to the expression of certain HLA alleles. Thus, viral pre-adaptation exploits 'holes' in the immune response. Accounting for these holes may be key for vaccine strategies seeking to elicit functional responses from viral variants, and to HIV cure strategies that require broad CTL responses to achieve successful eradication of HIV reservoirs. PMID:27183217

  16. Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

    PubMed

    Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

    2015-06-01

    Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. PMID:25972463

  17. Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change

    PubMed Central

    Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A.; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

    2015-01-01

    Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian–Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25 000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. PMID:25972463

  18. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  19. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  20. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  1. The psychological impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological impacts: direct (e.g., acute or traumatic effects of extreme weather events and a changed environment); indirect (e.g., threats to emotional well-being based on observation of impacts and concern or uncertainty about future risks); and psychosocial (e.g., chronic social and community effects of heat, drought, migrations, and climate-related conflicts, and postdisaster adjustment). Responses include providing psychological interventions in the wake of acute impacts and reducing the vulnerabilities contributing to their severity; promoting emotional resiliency and empowerment in the context of indirect impacts; and acting at systems and policy levels to address broad psychosocial impacts. The challenge of climate change calls for increased ecological literacy, a widened ethical responsibility, investigations into a range of psychological and social adaptations, and an allocation of resources and training to improve psychologists' competency in addressing climate change-related impacts. PMID:21553952

  2. Cellular modes of adaptation to environmental changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huckle, William R.

    2001-10-01

    Eukaryotic cells are remarkably adaptable entities. Whether embedded in solid tissues or freely suspended in blood or other fluids, cells principally exist in an aqueous environment but maintain a hydrophobic barrier, the plasma membrane, across which changes in the environment are detected. Utilizing specialized macromolecular components, cells can sense changes in temperature, hydrostatic pressure, oxygen tension, shear, shape, osmolarity, pH, electrical potential, electromagnetic radiation, and the concentrations of specific chemical compounds. Modes of response are equally varied, ranging from rapid secretion of stored substances to irreversible functional differentiation to self-destruction. Recent research has elucidated many of the enzymatic and genetic programs that accomplish these adaptations and suggests novel targets for therapeutic intervention.

  3. Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Baron, Jill S.; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.; Joyce, Linda A.; Blate, Geoffrey; Peterson, Charles H.; Palmer, Margaret; Keller, Brian D.; Kareiva, Peter; Scott, J. Michael; Griffith, Brad

    2008-01-01

    The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century – and especially in the last 30 years – is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change. Climate creates the context for ecosystems, and climate variables strongly influence the structure, composition, and processes that characterize distinct ecosystems. Climate change, therefore, is having direct and indirect effects on species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue regardless of emissions mitigation, management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems will become increasingly important. It is essential that management responses to climate change proceed using the best available science despite uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate effects, and the effects of management. Given these uncertainties, management adaptation will require flexibility to reflect our growing understanding of climate change impacts and management effectiveness.

  4. Competencies Demonstrated by Municipal Employees during Adaptation to Climate Change: A Pilot Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pruneau, Diane; Kerry, Jackie; Blain, Sylvie; Evichnevetski, Evgueni; Deguire, Paul; Barbier, Pierre-Yves; Freiman, Viktor; Therrien, Jimmy; Langis, Joanne; Lang, Mathieu

    2013-01-01

    Since coastal communities are already subjected to the impacts of climate change, adaptation has become a necessity. This article presents competencies demonstrated by Canadian municipal employees during an adaptation process to sea level rise. To adapt, the participants demonstrated the following competencies: problem solving (highlighting…

  5. Vulnerability assessment and risk level of ecosystem services for climate change impacts and adaptation in the High-Atlas mountain of Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Messouli, Mohammed; Bounoua, Lahouari; Babqiqi, Abdelaziz; Ben Salem, Abdelkrim; Yacoubi-Khebiza, Mohammed

    2010-05-01

    Moroccan mountain biomes are considered endangered due to climate change that affects directly or indirectly different key features (biodiversity, snow cover, run-off processes, and water availability). The present article describes the strategy for achieving collaboration between natural and social scientists, stakeholders, decision-makers, and other societal groups, in order to carry out an integrated assessment of climate change in the High-Atlas Mountains of Morocco, with an emphasis on vulnerability and adaptation. We will use a robust statistical technique to dynamically downscale outputs from the IPCC climates models to the regional study area. Statistical downscaling provides a powerful method for deriving local-to-regional scale information on climate variables from large-scale climate model outputs. The SDSM will be used to produce the high resolution climate change scenarios from climate model outputs at low resolution. These data will be combined with socio-economic attributes such as the amount of water used for irrigation of agricultural lands, agricultural practices and phenology, cost of water delivery and non-market values of produced goods and services. This study, also analyzed spatial and temporal in land use/land cover changes (LUCC) in a typical watershed covering an area of 203 km2 by comparing classified satellite images from 1976, 1989 and 2000 coupled by GIS analyses and also investigated changes in the shape of land use patches over the period. The GIS-platform, which compiles gridded spatial and temporal information of environmental, socio-economic and biophysical data is used to map vulnerability assessment and risk levels over a wide region of Southern High-Atlas. For each scenario, we will derive and analyze near future (10-15 years) key climate indicators strongly related to sustainable management of ecosystem goods and services. Forest cover declined at an average rate of 0.35 ha per year due to timber extraction, cultivation

  6. Global Change adaptation in water resources management: the Water Change project.

    PubMed

    Pouget, Laurent; Escaler, Isabel; Guiu, Roger; Mc Ennis, Suzy; Versini, Pierre-Antoine

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as changes in climate, water demand or land use, which can be grouped under the term Global Change. The Water Change project (LIFE+ funding) developed a methodology and a tool to assess the Global Change impacts on water resources, thus helping river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. The main result of the project was the creation of a step by step methodology to assess Global Change impacts and define strategies of adaptation. This methodology was tested in the Llobregat river basin (Spain) with the objective of being applicable to any water system. It includes several steps such as setting-up the problem with a DPSIR framework, developing Global Change scenarios, running river basin models and performing a cost-benefit analysis to define optimal strategies of adaptation. This methodology was supported by the creation of a flexible modelling system, which can link a wide range of models, such as hydrological, water quality, and water management models. The tool allows users to integrate their own models to the system, which can then exchange information among them automatically. This enables to simulate the interactions among multiple components of the water cycle, and run quickly a large number of Global Change scenarios. The outcomes of this project make possible to define and test different sets of adaptation measures for the basin that can be further evaluated through cost-benefit analysis. The integration of the results contributes to an efficient decision-making on how to adapt to Global Change impacts. PMID:22883209

  7. Adaptive robot path planning in changing environments

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, P.C.

    1994-08-01

    Path planning needs to be fast to facilitate real-time robot programming. Unfortunately, current planning techniques are still too slow to be effective, as they often require several minutes, if not hours of computation. To overcome this difficulty, we present an adaptive algorithm that uses past experience to speed up future performance. It is a learning algorithm suitable for incrementally-changing environments such as those encountered in manufacturing of evolving products and waste-site remediation. The algorithm allows the robot to adapt to its environment by having two experience manipulation schemes: For minor environmental change, we use an object-attached experience abstraction scheme to increase the flexibility of the learned experience; for major environmental change, we use an on-demand experience repair scheme to retain those experiences that remain valid and useful. Using this algorithm, we can effectively reduce the overall robot planning time by re-using the computation result for one task to plan a path for another.

  8. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  9. Adaptive path planning in changing environments

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Pang C.

    1993-10-01

    Path planning needs to be fast to facilitate real-time robot programming. Unfortunately, current planning techniques are still too slow to be effective, as they often require several minutes, if not hours of computation. To overcome this difficulty, we present an adaptive algorithm that uses previous experience to speed up future performance. It is a learning algorithm suitable for incrementally-changing environments such as those encountered in manufacturing of evolving products and waste-site remediation. The algorithm extends our previous work for stationary environments in two directions: For minor environmental change, an object-attached experience abstraction scheme is introduced to increase the flexibility of the learned experience; for major environmental change, an on-demand experience repair scheme is also introduced to retain those experiences that remain valid and useful. In addition to presenting this algorithm, we identify three other variants with different repair strategies. To compare these algorithms, we develop an analytic model to compare the costs and benefits of the corresponding repair processes. Using this model, we formalize the concept of incremental change, and prove the optimality of our proposed algorithm under such change. Empirically, we also characterize the performance curve of each variant, confirm our theoretical optimality results, and demonstrate the practicality of our algorithm.

  10. 76 FR 17962 - Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-31

    ... Geological Survey Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater... titled ``Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of... Federal Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and its Water Resources Workgroup....

  11. Appropriate technology and climate change adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gomez, Carlos

    2016-02-01

    Climate change is emerging as the greatest significant environmental problem for the 21st Century and the most important global challenge faced by human kind. Based on evidence recognized by the international scientific community, climate change is already an unquestionable reality, whose first effects are beginning to be measured. Available climate projections and models can assist in anticipating potential far-reaching consequences for development processes. Climatic transformations will impact the environment, biodiversity and water resources, putting several productive processes at risk; and will represent a threat to public health and water availability in quantity and quality.

  12. Adaptation to Impacts of Greenhouse Gases on the Ocean (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldeira, K.

    2010-12-01

    Greenhouse gases are producing changes in ocean temperature and circulation, and these changes are already adversely affecting marine biota. Furthermore, carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans from the atmosphere, and this too is already adversely affecting some marine ecosystems. And, of course, sea-level rise affects both what is above and below the waterline. Clearly, the most effective approach to limit the negative impacts of climate change and acidification on the marine environment is to greatly diminish the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are other measures that can be taken to limit some of the negative effects of these stresses in the marine environment. Marine ecosystems are subject to multiple stresses, including overfishing, pollution, and loss of coastal wetlands that often serve as nurseries for the open ocean. The adaptive capacity of marine environments can be improved by limiting these other stresses. If current carbon dioxide emission trends continue, for some cases (e.g., coral reefs), it is possible that no amount of reduction in other stresses can offset the increase in stresses posed by warming and acidification. For other cases (e.g., blue-water top-predator fisheries), better fisheries management might yield improved population health despite continued warming and acidification. In addition to reducing stresses so as to improve the adaptive capacity of marine ecosystems, there is also the issue of adaptation in human communities that depend on this changing marine environment. For example, communities that depend on services provided by coral reefs may need to locate alternative foundations for their economies. The fishery industry will need to adapt to changes in fish abundance, timing and location. Most of the things we would like to do to increase the adaptive capacity of marine ecosystems (e.g., reduce fishing pressure, reduce coastal pollution, preserve coastal wetlands) are things that would make sense to do even in

  13. Climate Change Adaptation Challenges and EO Business Opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Bansal, Rahul; Del Rey, Maria; Mohamed, Ebrahim; Ruiz, Paz; Signes, Marcos

    Climate change is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century, but is no longer a matter of just scientific concern. It encompasses economics, sociology, global politics as well as national and local politics, law, health and environmental security, etc. The challenge of facing the impacts of climate change is often framed in terms of two potential paths that civilization might take: mitigation and adaptation. On the one hand, mitigation involves reducing the magnitude of climate change itself and is composed of emissions reductions and geoengineering. On the other hand and by contrast, adaptation involves efforts to limit our vulnerability to climate change impacts through various measures. It refers to our ability to adjust ourselves to climate change -including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Therefore, we are now faced with a double challenge: next to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, we also need to adapt to the changing climate conditions. The use of satellites to monitor processes and trends at the global scale is essential in the context of climate change. Earth Observation has the potential to improve our predictive vision and to advance climate models. Space sciences and technologies constitute a significant issue in Education and Public Awareness of Science. Space missions face the probably largest scientific and industrial challenges of humanity. It is thus a fact that space drives innovation in the major breakthrough and cutting edge technological advances of mankind (techniques, processes, new products, … as well as in markets and business models). Technology and innovation is the basis of all space activities. Space agencies offer an entire range of space-related activities - from space science and environmental monitoring to industrial competitiveness and end-user services. More specifically, Earth Observation satellites have a unique

  14. Climate change impacts on forestry

    PubMed Central

    Kirilenko, Andrei P.; Sedjo, Roger A.

    2007-01-01

    Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. Our review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. We concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand. PMID:18077403

  15. Climate change impacts on forestry

    SciTech Connect

    Kirilenko, A.P.; Sedjo, R.A.

    2007-12-11

    Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. The authors' review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. They concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand.

  16. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  17. Adapting to climate change or to stakeholders?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Camera, Corrado; Giannakis, Elias; Zoumides, Christos; Eliades, Marinos; Djuma, Hakan

    2015-04-01

    The Tamassos dam protects the Pedieos watershed in Cyprus against floods. The waterbody behind the dam serves as a new biodiversity and recreational resource. Water from the dam is also used for domestic water supply for nearby rural communities. However, this peaceful picture is threatened by climate change. Regional Climate Models indicate a drier and warmer Pedieos watershed in the near future (2020-2050). Interviews and meetings with a wide variety of stakeholders, for the development of a climate change adaptation plan for the Pedieos watershed, has created even more uncertainties than climate change. Environmental-minded stakeholders suggested to demolish the dam and to return the watershed to its natural state and the water to downstream ecosystems. Agricultural producers would also like to see the return of stream flows, such that they can divert or impound the water for groundwater recharge and subsequent irrigation. Community leaders similarly prefer stream flows for the recharge of the alluvial river aquifers, to allow them to abstract more groundwater for community water supply. Downstream authorities have different concerns. Here the usually dry river bed serves as the drainage of the urban agglomeration of the capital of Nicosia; and has been identified as an area of potentially significant flood risk for the European Flood Directive (2007/60/EC). The largest storm event in the upstream area in the recent past occurred in January 1989, before the construction of the dam. The runoff totalled 3.1 million m3 in one day and 4.4 million m3 in two days. Thus, part of the runoff would have flown straight through the spillway of the 2.8 million m3 dam reservoir. Average annual precipitation in the highly sloping, forested upstream area is 500 mm, while stream flows average 4.7 million m3/yr (1981-2001). This results in an average runoff coefficient of 19% for the 45-km2 upstream area. Past observations, climate change projections and hydrologic models

  18. Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Thorpe, Roger S; Barlow, Axel; Malhotra, Anita; Surget-Groba, Yann

    2015-03-01

    Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot. PMID:25644484

  19. Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: Initial experiments using GCAM

    SciTech Connect

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2013-04-01

    Historically climate impacts research and climate mitigation research have been two separate and independent domains of inquiry. Climate mitigation research has investigated greenhouse gas emissions assuming that climate is unchanging. At the same time climate mitigation research has investigated the implications of climate change on the assumption that climate mitigation will proceed without affecting the degree of climate impacts or the ability of human and natural systems to adapt. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has largely been employed to study climate mitigation. Here we explore the development of capabilities to assess climate change impacts and adaptation within the GCAM model. These capabilities are being developed so as to be able to simultaneously reconcile the joint implications of climate change mitigation, impacts and adaptive potential. This is an important step forward in that it enables direct comparison between climate mitigation activities and climate impacts and the opportunity to understand interactions between the two.

  20. Selecting downscaled climate projections for water resource impacts and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît

    2015-04-01

    variables - climate change signal in temporally and spatially integrated variables - has been carefully made with respect their relevance for water resource management. This work proposes a twofold assessment of this selection approach. First, a climate validation allows checking the selection response of more extreme climate variables critical for hydrological impacts as well as spatially distributed ones. Second, a hydrological validation allows checking the selection response of streamflow variables relevant for water resource management. Findings highlight that such validations may critically help preventing misinterpretations and misuses of impact model ensemble outputs for integrated adaptation purposes. This work is part of the GICC R2D2-2050 project (Risk, water Resources and sustainable Development of the Durance catchment in 2050) and the EU FP7 COMPLEX project (Knowledge Based Climate Mitigation Systems for a Low Carbon Economy). Christierson, B. v., Vidal, J.-P., & Wade, S. D. (2012) Using UKCP09 probabilistic climate information for UK water resource planning}. J. Hydrol., {424-425}, 48-67. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.12.020} Lafaysse, M.; Hingray, B.; Terray, L.; Mezghani, A. & Gailhard, J. (2014) Internal variability and model uncertainty components in future hydrometeorological projections: The Alpine Durance basin. Water Resour. Res., {50}, 3317-3341. doi: 10.1002/2013WR014897 Vidal, J.-P. & Hingray, B. (2014) A framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections for impact and adaptation studies. EGU2014-7851

  1. The Scales of Coccolithophores: Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henderiks, J.; Hannisdal, B.; Rickaby, R. E.; Zondervan, I.; Winter, A.; Pagani, M.

    2008-12-01

    Rising ocean temperatures and lowering of ocean pH may disrupt marine productivity and calcification by coccolithophores, affecting natural biosphere-climate feedbacks. A better understanding of both the mechanisms and the rates of climatic adaptation by coccolithophores is critical for predicting future impacts of climate change. We will discuss how contrasts in the physiology and biogeography of modern coccolithophores could relate to different climatic adaptation strategies of their Cenozoic ancestors. On short time scales, experimental results highlight species-specific sensitivities to changing ocean carbonate chemistry, which is consistent with differences in cell size of the investigated taxa and likely related to intracellular pH control. On geological time-scales, coccolithophores appear to have adapted to a long- term decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) and cooling ocean temperatures by decreasing their coccolith and cell size. We employed a novel, information-theoretic approach to quantify the relative influence of different environmental variables on coccolith size. This analysis suggests that the macroevolutionary size decrease primarily reflects a physiological adaptation to CO2 limitation, rather than decreased nutrient availability caused by large-scale changes in ocean stratification. The recent dominance of Emiliania huxleyi is likely due to its fast growing, small cells and light calcification. This allowed it to outcompete larger and heavily calcified coccolithophores under low pCO2 conditions of the Pleistocene. However, as the ocean carbonate system is rapidly reversing to more acidic pre-Pleistocene conditions, the fate of E. huxleyi and other modern prolific bloomers is uncertain. The potential expansion of the larger, pH-resistant species Coccolithus braarudii away from its restricted high- pCO2 niches remains untested.

  2. Development of drought and/or heat tolerant crop varieties, an adaptation approach to mitigate impact of climate change on agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    As global climate change becomes inevitable, the sustainability of agricultural production in US and worldwide faces serious threat from extreme weather conditions, such as drought and high temperature (heat wave). Development of drought and/or heat tolerant crop varieties is one of the most effecti...

  3. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  4. Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change.

    PubMed

    Semenov, M A; Stratonovitch, P; Alghabari, F; Gooding, M J

    2014-05-01

    Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat. PMID:24882934

  5. Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change

    PubMed Central

    Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P.; Alghabari, F.; Gooding, M.J.

    2014-01-01

    Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat. PMID:24882934

  6. Beyond Reduction: Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Universities and Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Owen, Rochelle; Fisher, Erica; McKenzie, Kyle

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to outline a unique six-step process for the inclusion of climate change adaption goals and strategies in a University Climate Change Plan. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed-method approach was used to gather data on campus climate change vulnerabilities and adaption strategies. A literature review…

  7. Facilitating Adaptation to Changing Storm Surge Patterns in Western Alaska.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, K. A.; Holman, A.; Reynolds, J.

    2014-12-01

    Coastal regions of North America are already experiencing the effects of climate change and the consequences of new storm patterns and sea level rise. These climate change effects are even more pronounced in western Alaska where the loss of sea ice in early winter and spring are exposing the coast to powerful winter storms that are visibly altering the landscape, putting coastal communities at risk, and are likely impacting important coastal wildlife habitat in ways we don't yet understand. The Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative has funded a suite of projects to improve the information available to assist managers and communities to adapt changes in coastal storms and their impacts. Projects range from modeling tide, wave and storm surge patters, to ShoreZone and NHD mapping, to bathymetry mapping, community vulnerability assessments and risks to important wildlife habitat. This group of diverse projects has helped stimulate momentum among partners which will lead to better tools for communities to respond to dangerous storms. For example, the State of Alaska and NOAA are working together to compile a series of community-scale maps that utilize best-available datasets to streamline communication about forecasted storm surges, local elevations and potentially impacted infrastructure during storm events that may lead to coastal flooding.

  8. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    PubMed Central

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

  9. Assessment of the health impacts of climate change in Kiribati.

    PubMed

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-05-01

    Kiribati-a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation-is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

  10. Empirically Estimating the Potential for Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western European Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, F. C.; Lobell, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This

  11. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  12. Development of adaptive IWRM options for climate change mitigation and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flügel, W.-A.

    2011-04-01

    Adaptive Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) options related to the impacts of climate change in the twinning basins of the Upper Danube River Basin (UDRB) and the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin (UBRB) are developed based on the results obtained in the different work packages of the BRAHMATWINN project. They have been described and discussed in Chapter 2 till Chapter 9 and the paper is referring to and is integrating these findings with respect to their application and interpretation for the development of adaptive IWRM options addressing impacts of climate change in river basins. The data and information related to the results discussed in Chapter 2 till 8 have been input to the RBIS as a central component of the IWRMS (Chapter 9). Meanwhile the UDRB has been analysed with respect to IWRM and climate change impacts by various projects, i.e. the GLOWA-Danube BMBF funded project (GLOWA Danube, 2009; Mauser and Ludwig, 2002) the UBRB has not been studied so far in a similar way as it was done in the BRAHMATWINN project. Therefore the IWRM option development is focussing on the UBRB but the methodology presented can be applied for the UDRB and other river basins as well. Data presented and analysed in this chapter have been elaborated by the BRAHMATWINN project partners and are published in the project deliverable reports available from the project homepage http://www.brahmatwinn.uni-jena.de/index.php?id=5311&L=2.

  13. Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

    2014-12-01

    Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

  14. A National Climate Change Adaptation Network for Protecting Water Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weaver, A.; Sauchyn, D.; Byrne, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    Water security and resource-dependent community-survival are being increasingly challenged as a consequence of climate change, and it is urgent that we plan now for the security of our water supplies which support our lives and livelihoods. However, the range of impacts of climate change on water availability, and the consequent environmental and human adaptations that are required, is so complex and serious that it will take the combined work of natural, health and social scientists working with industries and communities to solve them. Networks are needed that will identify crucial water issues under climate change at a range of scales in order to provide regionally-sensitive, solutions-oriented research and adaptation. We suggest national and supra-national water availability and community sustainability issues must be addressed by multidisciplinary research and adaptation networks. The work must be driven by a bottom-up research paradigm — science in the service of community and governance. We suggest that interdisciplinary teams of researchers, in partnership with community decision makers and local industries, are the best means to develop solutions as communities attempt to address future water demands, protect their homes from infrastructure damage, and meet their food, drinking water, and other essential resource requirements. The intention is to cover: the impact of climate change on Canadian natural resources, both marine and terrestrial; issues of long-term sustainability and resilience in human communities and the environments in which they are embedded; the making and moving of knowledge, be that between members of Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities, researchers of different disciplines, communities, industry, policymakers and the academy and the crucial involvement of the various orders of government in the response to water problems, under conditions of heightened uncertainty. Such an adaptation network must include a national

  15. Adaptively Managing Wildlife for Climate Change: A Fuzzy Logic Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prato, Tony

    2011-07-01

    Wildlife managers have little or no control over climate change. However, they may be able to alleviate potential adverse impacts of future climate change by adaptively managing wildlife for climate change. In particular, wildlife managers can evaluate the efficacy of compensatory management actions (CMAs) in alleviating potential adverse impacts of future climate change on wildlife species using probability-based or fuzzy decision rules. Application of probability-based decision rules requires managers to specify certain probabilities, which is not possible when they are uncertain about the relationships between observed and true ecological conditions for a species. Under such uncertainty, the efficacy of CMAs can be evaluated and the best CMA selected using fuzzy decision rules. The latter are described and demonstrated using three constructed cases that assume: (1) a single ecological indicator (e.g., population size for a species) in a single time period; (2) multiple ecological indicators for a species in a single time period; and (3) multiple ecological conditions for a species in multiple time periods.

  16. Weather Extremes, Climate Change and Adaptive Governance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veland, S.; Lynch, A. H.

    2014-12-01

    Human societies have become a geologic agent of change, and with this is an increasing awareness of the environment risks that confront human activities and values. More frequent and extreme hydroclimate events, anomalous tropical cyclone seasons, heat waves and droughts have all been documented, and many rigorously attributed to fossil fuel emissions (e.g. DeGaetano 2009; Hoyos et al. 2006). These extremes, however, do not register themselves in the abstract - they occur in particular places, affecting particular populations and ecosystems (Turner et al. 2003). This can be considered to present a policy window to decrease vulnerability and enhance emergency management. However, the asymmetrical character of these events may lead some to treat remote areas or disenfranchised populations as capable of absorbing the environmental damage attributable to the collective behavior of those residing in wealthy, populous, industrialized societies (Young 1989). Sound policies for adaptation to changing extremes must take into account the multiple interests and resource constraints for the populations affected and their broader contexts. Minimizing vulnerability to weather extremes is only one of many interests in human societies, and as noted, this interest competes with the others for limited time, attention, funds and other resources. Progress in reducing vulnerability also depends on policy that integrates the best available local and scientific knowledge and experience elsewhere. This improves the chance that each policy will succeed, but there are no guarantees. Each policy must be recognized as a matter of trial and error to some extent; surprises are inevitable. Thus each policy should be designed to fail gracefully if it fails, to learn from the experience, and to leave resources sufficient to implement the lessons learned. Overall policy processes must be quasi-evolutionary, avoiding replication without modification of failed policies and building on the successes

  17. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1997-12-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  18. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1998-01-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  19. Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services. PMID:23991125

  20. Styles of Adaptation: The Impact of Frequency and Valence of Adaptation on Preventing Substance Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansen, William B.; Pankratz, Melinda M.; Dusenbury, Linda; Giles, Steven M.; Bishop, Dana C.; Albritton, Jordan; Albritton, Lauren P.; Strack, Joann

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To be effective, evidence-based programs should be delivered as prescribed. This suggests that adaptations that deviate from intervention goals may limit a program's effectiveness. This study aims to examine the impact that number and quality of adaptations have on substance use outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: The authors…

  1. Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

  2. Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change: The Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and other key stakeholders in the Blue Mountains region of northeastern Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

  3. An Evidence-Based Public Health Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E.; Raab, Kristin K.; Luber, George

    2014-01-01

    Background: Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Objectives: Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. Methods: We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. Discussion: A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. Conclusions: The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders. Citation: Hess JJ, Eidson M, Tlumak JE, Raab KK, Luber G. 2014. An evidence-based public

  4. Estimating the Importance of Private Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture: A Review of Empirical Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, F.; Burke, M.

    2015-12-01

    A wide range of studies using a variety of methods strongly suggest that climate change will have a negative impact on agricultural production in many areas. Farmers though should be able to learn about a changing climate and to adjust what they grow and how they grow it in order to reduce these negative impacts. However, it remains unclear how effective these private (autonomous) adaptations will be, or how quickly they will be adopted. Constraining the uncertainty on this adaptation is important for understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Here we review a number of empirical methods that have been proposed for understanding the rate and effectiveness of private adaptation to climate change. We compare these methods using data on agricultural yields in the United States and western Europe.

  5. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Canadian Jurisdictions

    PubMed Central

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Ford, James D.; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Araos, Malcolm; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change poses numerous risks to the health of Canadians. Extreme weather events, poor air quality, and food insecurity in northern regions are likely to increase along with the increasing incidence and range of infectious diseases. In this study we identify and characterize Canadian federal, provincial, territorial and municipal adaptation to these health risks based on publically available information. Federal health adaptation initiatives emphasize capacity building and gathering information to address general health, infectious disease and heat-related risks. Provincial and territorial adaptation is varied. Quebec is a leader in climate change adaptation, having a notably higher number of adaptation initiatives reported, addressing almost all risks posed by climate change in the province, and having implemented various adaptation types. Meanwhile, all other Canadian provinces and territories are in the early stages of health adaptation. Based on publically available information, reported adaptation also varies greatly by municipality. The six sampled Canadian regional health authorities (or equivalent) are not reporting any adaptation initiatives. We also find little relationship between the number of initiatives reported in the six sampled municipalities and their provinces, suggesting that municipalities are adapting (or not adapting) autonomously. PMID:25588156

  6. Public health adaptation to climate change in Canadian jurisdictions.

    PubMed

    Austin, Stephanie E; Ford, James D; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Araos, Malcolm; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D

    2015-01-01

    Climate change poses numerous risks to the health of Canadians. Extreme weather events, poor air quality, and food insecurity in northern regions are likely to increase along with the increasing incidence and range of infectious diseases. In this study we identify and characterize Canadian federal, provincial, territorial and municipal adaptation to these health risks based on publically available information. Federal health adaptation initiatives emphasize capacity building and gathering information to address general health, infectious disease and heat-related risks. Provincial and territorial adaptation is varied. Quebec is a leader in climate change adaptation, having a notably higher number of adaptation initiatives reported, addressing almost all risks posed by climate change in the province, and having implemented various adaptation types. Meanwhile, all other Canadian provinces and territories are in the early stages of health adaptation. Based on publically available information, reported adaptation also varies greatly by municipality. The six sampled Canadian regional health authorities (or equivalent) are not reporting any adaptation initiatives. We also find little relationship between the number of initiatives reported in the six sampled municipalities and their provinces, suggesting that municipalities are adapting (or not adapting) autonomously. PMID:25588156

  7. An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress

    PubMed Central

    Sherwood, Steven C.; Huber, Matthew

    2010-01-01

    Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature TW, is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. TW never exceeds 31 °C. Any exceedence of 35 °C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11–12 °C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 °C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record. PMID:20439769

  8. An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress.

    PubMed

    Sherwood, Steven C; Huber, Matthew

    2010-05-25

    Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature T(W), is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. T(W) never exceeds 31 degrees C. Any exceedence of 35 degrees C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 degrees C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12 degrees C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 degrees C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record. PMID:20439769

  9. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans

    PubMed Central

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S.

    2016-01-01

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago’s are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others. PMID:27110801

  10. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

    PubMed

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

    2016-04-01

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others. PMID:27110801

  11. Adapting Dam and Reservoir Design and Operations to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, René; Braun, Marco; Chaumont, Diane

    2013-04-01

    In order to identify the potential initiatives that the dam, reservoir and water resources systems owners and operators may undertake to cope with climate change issues, it is essential to determine the current state of knowledge of their impacts on hydrological variables at regional and local scales. Future climate scenarios derived from climate model simulations can be combined with operational hydrological modeling tools and historical observations to evaluate realistic pathways of future hydrological conditions for specific drainage basins. In the case of hydropower production those changes in hydrological conditions may have significant economic impacts. For over a decade the state owned hydropower producer Hydro Québec has been exploring the physical impacts on their watersheds by relying on climate services in collaboration with Ouranos, a consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change. Previous climate change impact analysis had been including different sources of climate simulation data, explored different post-processing approaches and used hydrological impact models. At a new stage of this collaboration the operational management of Hydro Quebec aspired to carry out a cost-benefit analysis of considering climate change in the refactoring of hydro-power installations. In the process of the project not only a set of scenarios of future runoff regimes had to be defined to support long term planning decisions of a dam and reservoir operator, but also the significance of uncertainties needed to be communicated and made understood. We provide insight into a case study that took some unexpected turns and leaps by bringing together climate scientists, hydrologists and hydro-power operation managers. The study includes the selection of appropriate climate scenarios, the correction of biases, the application of hydrological models and the assessment of uncertainties. However, it turned out that communicating the science properly and

  12. Farm level adaptation to climate change: the case of farmer's in the Ethiopian highlands.

    PubMed

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-07-01

    In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian. PMID:23728486

  13. Farm Level Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of Farmer's in the Ethiopian Highlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-07-01

    In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.

  14. Adapting Scotland’s forests to climate change using an action expiration chart

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petr, M.; Boerboom, L. G. J.; Ray, D.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-10-01

    The inherent uncertainty of climate change impacts is one of the main challenges for adaptation in environmental management. The lack of knowledge about climate impacts on ecosystem services at high spatial and temporal resolution limits when and what adaptation measures should be taken. We addressed these limits by assessing four ecosystem services—forest production, tree growth, sequestered carbon, and tourism potential—under drought or climate change. To support adaptation, we adapted the existing concept of ‘dynamic adaptive policy pathways’ for forest management by developing an action expiration chart, which helps to define expiry dates for forestry actions using ecosystem services delivery thresholds. We assessed services for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak on the National Forest Estate in Scotland for the next 80 years using probabilistic climate change data from the UKCP09 weather generator. Findings showed that drought would have an overall long-term negative impact on the provision of three services with a decrease up to 41%, whereas climate change has a positive impact on tourism potential with up to five times higher frequency of good climate conditions during summer months. Furthermore, the results highlighted when forestry actions, mainly in the lowlands, will reach their environmental limits during the next 80 years. Our findings reduce knowledge uncertainty and highlight when and where adaptation should be implemented to ensure the provision of future forest ecosystem services in Scotland.

  15. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J. J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.

    2015-10-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management; (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation.

  16. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  17. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries.

    PubMed

    Austin, Stephanie E; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will-or should-include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation-cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning-and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning. PMID:27618074

  18. A need for planned adaptation to climate change in the wine industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metzger, Marc J.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

    2011-09-01

    The diversity of wine production depends on subtle differences in microclimate and is therefore especially sensitive to climate change. A warmer climate will impact directly on wine-grapes through over-ripening, drying out, rising acidity levels, and greater vulnerability to pests and disease, resulting in changes in wine quality (e.g. complexity, balance and structure) or potentially the style of wine that can be produced. The growing scientific evidence for significant climate change in the coming decades means that adaptation will be of critical importance to the multi-billion dollar global wine-industry in general, and to quality wine producers in particular (White et al 2006, 2009; Hertsgaard 2011). Adaptation is understood as an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected environmental change, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC 2007). Autonomous adaptation has been an integral part of the 20th century wine industry. Technological advances, changes in consumer demand, and global competition have meant that growers and producers have had to adapt to stay in business. The gradual temperature rise in the 20th Century (0.7 °C globally) has been accommodated successfully by gradual changes in vine management, technological measures, production control, and marketing (White et al 2009), although this has in many cases resulted in the production of bolder, more alcoholic wines (Hertsgaard 2011). In spite of this success, the wine industry is surprisingly conservative when it comes to considering longer term planned adaptation for substantial climate change impacts. A few producers are expanding to new locations at higher altitudes or cooler climates (e.g. Torres is developing new vineyards high in the Pyrenees, and Mouton Rothschild is setting up new vineyards in South America), and the legal and cultural restrictions of Appelation d'Origine Cȏntrollée (AOC) systems are being discussed (White et al 2009

  19. Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change in the City of Chicago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuebbles, D. J.; Hayhoe, K.; Coffee, J.; McGraw, J.; Parzen, J.

    2008-12-01

    Under Mayor Richard M. Daley's leadership, the City of Chicago initiated the Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP) to better understand local implications of global climate change in both higher and lower emissions scenarios, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and implement programs to build future climate change resilience. The City approached this work not only as a way to make Chicago more adaptable in the future, but also to improve Chicago's quality of life today. The Chicago Climate Action Plan adopted stresses the importance of both reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Chicago and preparing for climate changes that may be unavoidable. Building off of the City's significant environmental programs and projects, and based on our analyses of the climate effects and impacts that improved the scientific understanding of future climate change impacts on Chicago, the City then developed a set of climate change adaptation strategies, resulting in the City of Chicago Climate Change Adaptation Summary. This document includes prioritization of climate change adaptations based on relative risk as well as framework strategies for those tactics categorized as "must do/early action." In early 2008, The Mayor's Office asked five Commissioners from its Green Steering Committee to chair adaptation work groups including: extreme heat; extreme precipitation; buildings, infrastructure and equipment; ecosystems; and leadership, planning and communications. Working with staff from relevant departments, sister agencies and other stakeholders, these work groups developed 39 basic adaptation work plans, including plans for enhancing the City's existing projects and programs that relate to climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation work will be on-going in City Departments under the Mayor's Office leadership. The City intends to continually monitor and improve its response to climate change, resulting in an improved quality of life for Chicago residents.

  20. Extratropical Transitions in Atlantic Canada: Impacts and Adaptive Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masson, Athena; Catto, Norm

    2013-04-01

    . Storm surge damage occurred along the north shore of the Bonavista Peninsula. Similar effects, differing only in the size of the affected areas, have resulted from several extratropical transitions which have impacted Atlantic Canada since July 1989. Extratropical transition "Leslie" impacted Newfoundland on 10-11 September 2012. Although the area affected was comparable to "Igor", wind velocities and rainfall totals were less, fortunately limiting damage. Preparation, advance warning to the population, proaction, and response efforts all showed significant improvement, however, indicating that the experience gained from coping with "Igor" had been successfully applied in adaptation to "Leslie". Extratropical transitions pose a significantly different set of challenges for adaptation in comparison to purely tropical hurricanes, and responses and adaptation strategies should be tailored to address these specific events. Calculating the frequency, magnitude and intensity of potential shifts is important for accurate forecasting and public awareness, safety management, preparedness, and adaptation. Available data indicate an increase in extratropical frequency and severity in Atlantic Canada since 1991, but there are difficulties in establishing the extent and nature of transition for previous storm events. A cautionary policy would assume no significant changes in extratropical transition frequency for Atlantic Canada, but would also acknowledge that large events remain probable.

  1. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  2. Adaptive changes in visual cortex following prolonged contrast reduction

    PubMed Central

    Kwon, MiYoung; Legge, Gordon E.; Fang, Fang; Cheong, Allen M. Y.; He, Sheng

    2009-01-01

    How does prolonged reduction in retinal-image contrast affect visual-contrast coding? Recent evidence indicates that some forms of long-term visual deprivation result in compensatory perceptual and neural changes in the adult visual pathway. It has not been established whether changes due to contrast adaptation are best characterized as “contrast gain” or “response gain.” We present a theoretical rationale for predicting that adaptation to long-term contrast reduction should result in response gain. To test this hypothesis, normally sighted subjects adapted for four hours by viewing their environment through contrast-reducing goggles. During the adaptation period, the subjects went about their usual daily activities. Subjects' contrast-discrimination thresholds and fMRI BOLD responses in cortical areas V1 and V2 were obtained before and after adaptation. Following adaptation, we observed a significant decrease in contrast-discrimination thresholds, and significant increase in BOLD responses in V1 and V2. The observed interocular transfer of the adaptation effect suggests that the adaptation has a cortical origin. These results reveal a new kind of adaptability of the adult visual cortex, an adjustment in the gain of the contrast-response in the presence of a reduced range of stimulus contrasts, which is consistent with a response-gain mechanism. The adaptation appears to be compensatory, such that the precision of contrast coding is improved for low retinal-image contrasts. PMID:19271930

  3. Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change on Inuit Health

    PubMed Central

    Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks—one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context. PMID:24754615

  4. Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    PubMed Central

    Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

  5. Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs

  6. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-03-01

    Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  7. Complex Adaptive Schools: Educational Leadership and School Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kershner, Brad; McQuillan, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    This paper utilizes the theoretical framework of complexity theory to compare and contrast leadership and educational change in two urban schools. Drawing on the notion of a complex adaptive system--an interdependent network of interacting elements that learns and evolves in adapting to an ever-shifting context--our case studies seek to reveal the…

  8. Modeling Two Types of Adaptation to Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-live...

  9. The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

    2013-12-01

    Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand

  10. Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parey, S.; Bernardara, P.; Donat, M. G.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change is under way and impacts can already be observed and have to be expected for the future, even if mitigation measures can be implemented. A number of economical and industrial activities are influenced by or even depend on the climatic conditions. Hence, changing climate has implications for those activities, and adaptation to the changing environmental conditions may be required. This presentation gives an overview of different studies investigating climate change impacts on the economical and industrial sector, as well as related adaptation actions. This includes investigations of climate impacts on agriculture, tourism, insurance risk,design of protection of industrial utilities against flood, and electricity production. Further studies investigate the mitigation of CO2 emissions by using renewable energy generation and the use of alternative building materials.

  11. Estimating farmers' willingness to pay for climate change adaptation: the case of the Malaysian agricultural sector.

    PubMed

    Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Junsheng, Ha; Akhtar, Rulia; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Kari, Fatimah Binti

    2015-02-01

    This paper estimates Malaysian farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme for addressing climate issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. We used the contingent valuation method (CVM) for a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for a planned adaptation programme by ascertaining the value attached to address climatic issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. Structured questionnaires were distributed among the sampled farmers. The study found that 74 % of respondents were willing to pay for a planned adaptation programme and that several socioeconomic and motivation factors have greater influence on their WTP. This paper clearly specifies the steps needed for all institutional bodies to better address issues in climate change. The outcomes of this paper will support policy makers to better design an efficient adaptation framework for adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change. PMID:25632900

  12. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-12-01

    Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  13. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-05-01

    There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment in Odense, Denmark, and find that the uncertainty on the climate change impact appears to have the least influence on the net present value of the studied adaptation measures-. This does not imply that the climate change impact is not important, but that the uncertainties are not dominating when deciding on action or in-action. We then consider the uncertainty related to choosing between adaptation options given that a decision of action has been taken. In this case the major part of the

  14. Explaining and overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisenack, Klaus; Moser, Susanne C.; Hoffmann, Esther; Klein, Richard J. T.; Oberlack, Christoph; Pechan, Anna; Rotter, Maja; Termeer, Catrien J. A. M.

    2014-10-01

    The concept of barriers is increasingly used to describe the obstacles that hinder the planning and implementation of climate change adaptation. The growing literature on barriers to adaptation reveals not only commonly reported barriers, but also conflicting evidence, and few explanations of why barriers exist and change. There is thus a need for research that focuses on the interdependencies between barriers and considers the dynamic ways in which barriers develop and persist. Such research, which would be actor-centred and comparative, would help to explain barriers to adaptation and provide insights into how to overcome them.

  15. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Challinor, A. J.; Watson, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Howden, S. M.; Smith, D. R.; Chhetri, N.

    2014-04-01

    Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7-15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.

  16. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

  17. Implementing Culture Change in Nursing Homes: An Adaptive Leadership Framework

    PubMed Central

    Corazzini, Kirsten; Twersky, Jack; White, Heidi K.; Buhr, Gwendolen T.; McConnell, Eleanor S.; Weiner, Madeline; Colón-Emeric, Cathleen S.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: To describe key adaptive challenges and leadership behaviors to implement culture change for person-directed care. Design and Methods: The study design was a qualitative, observational study of nursing home staff perceptions of the implementation of culture change in each of 3 nursing homes. We conducted 7 focus groups of licensed and unlicensed nursing staff, medical care providers, and administrators. Questions explored perceptions of facilitators and barriers to culture change. Using a template organizing style of analysis with immersion/crystallization, themes of barriers and facilitators were coded for adaptive challenges and leadership. Results: Six key themes emerged, including relationships, standards and expectations, motivation and vision, workload, respect of personhood, and physical environment. Within each theme, participants identified barriers that were adaptive challenges and facilitators that were examples of adaptive leadership. Commonly identified challenges were how to provide person-directed care in the context of extant rules or policies or how to develop staff motivated to provide person-directed care. Implications: Implementing culture change requires the recognition of adaptive challenges for which there are no technical solutions, but which require reframing of norms and expectations, and the development of novel and flexible solutions. Managers and administrators seeking to implement person-directed care will need to consider the role of adaptive leadership to address these adaptive challenges. PMID:24451896

  18. Climate change adaptation and Integrated Water Resource Management in the water sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludwig, Fulco; van Slobbe, Erik; Cofino, Wim

    2014-10-01

    Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) was introduced in 1980s to better optimise water uses between different water demanding sectors. However, since it was introduced water systems have become more complicated due to changes in the global water cycle as a result of climate change. The realization that climate change will have a significant impact on water availability and flood risks has driven research and policy making on adaptation. This paper discusses the main similarities and differences between climate change adaptation and IWRM. The main difference between the two is the focus on current and historic issues of IWRM compared to the (long-term) future focus of adaptation. One of the main problems of implementing climate change adaptation is the large uncertainties in future projections. Two completely different approaches to adaptation have been developed in response to these large uncertainties. A top-down approach based on large scale biophysical impacts analyses focussing on quantifying and minimizing uncertainty by using a large range of scenarios and different climate and impact models. The main problem with this approach is the propagation of uncertainties within the modelling chain. The opposite is the bottom up approach which basically ignores uncertainty. It focusses on reducing vulnerabilities, often at local scale, by developing resilient water systems. Both these approaches however are unsuitable for integrating into water management. The bottom up approach focuses too much on socio-economic vulnerability and too little on developing (technical) solutions. The top-down approach often results in an “explosion” of uncertainty and therefore complicates decision making. A more promising direction of adaptation would be a risk based approach. Future research should further develop and test an approach which starts with developing adaptation strategies based on current and future risks. These strategies should then be evaluated using a range

  19. Adapting to climate change despite scientific uncertainty: A case study of coastal protection from sea-level rise in Kiribati

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, S. D.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change adaptation is an increasing focus of international aid. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help developing countries, like the low-lying island nation of Kiribati, respond to the impacts of climate change. These emerging adaptation efforts must proceed despite the large and partially irreducible scientific uncertainty about the magnitude of those future climate impacts. In this study, we use the example of efforts to adapt to sea-level rise in Kiribati to document the challenges facing such internationally-funded climate change adaptation projects given the scientific uncertainty about climate impacts. Drawing on field and document research, we describe the scientific uncertainty about projected sea-level rise in Tarawa, the capital of Kiribati, how that uncertainty can create trade-offs between adaptation measures, and the social, political and economic context in which adaptation decisions must be made. The analysis shows there is no 'silver bullet' adaptation strategy in countries like Kiribati, given the long-term scientific uncertainty about sea-level rise and the environment of climate change aid. The existence of irreducible scientific uncertainty does not preclude effective climate change adaptation, but instead requires adaptation programs that embrace multiple strategies and planning horizons, and continually build on and re-adjust previous investments. This work highlights the importance of sustained international climate change financing, as proposed in UNFCCC negotiations.

  20. Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

    2008-12-01

    We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for

  1. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allison, Edward H.; Bassett, Hannah R.

    2015-11-01

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society’s diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions.

  2. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

    PubMed

    Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

    2015-11-13

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions. PMID:26564848

  3. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  4. Adapting dairy farms to climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is projected to affect many aspects of dairy production. These aspects include the growing season length, crop growth processes, harvest timing and losses, heat stress on cattle, nutrient emissions and losses, and ultimately farm profitability. To assess the sensitivity of dairy farms...

  5. Changing Rural Social Systems: Adaptation and Survival.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Nan E., Ed.; Wang, Ching-li, Ed.

    This book includes studies of globalization-related social changes in rural areas of the United States and other countries and implications of these studies for sociological theory. Although no chapter focuses exclusively on education, education-related themes include rural school dropouts and intergenerational poverty, the migration of rural…

  6. Impacts of local adaptation of forest trees on associations with herbivorous insects: implications for adaptive forest management.

    PubMed

    Sinclair, Frazer H; Stone, Graham N; Nicholls, James A; Cavers, Stephen; Gibbs, Melanie; Butterill, Philip; Wagner, Stefanie; Ducousso, Alexis; Gerber, Sophie; Petit, Rémy J; Kremer, Antoine; Schönrogge, Karsten

    2015-12-01

    Disruption of species interactions is a key issue in climate change biology. Interactions involving forest trees may be particularly vulnerable due to evolutionary rate limitations imposed by long generation times. One mitigation strategy for such impacts is Climate matching - the augmentation of local native tree populations by input from nonlocal populations currently experiencing predicted future climates. This strategy is controversial because of potential cascading impacts on locally adapted animal communities. We explored these impacts using abundance data for local native gallwasp herbivores sampled from 20 provenances of sessile oak (Quercus petraea) planted in a common garden trial. We hypothesized that non-native provenances would show (i) declining growth performance with increasing distance between provenance origin and trial site, and (ii) phenological differences to local oaks that increased with latitudinal differences between origin and trial site. Under a local adaptation hypothesis, we predicted declining gallwasp abundance with increasing phenological mismatch between native and climate-matched trees. Both hypotheses for oaks were supported. Provenance explained significant variation in gallwasp abundance, but no gall type showed the relationship between abundance and phenological mismatch predicted by a local adaptation hypothesis. Our results show that climate matching would have complex and variable impacts on oak gall communities. PMID:26640522

  7. Impacts of local adaptation of forest trees on associations with herbivorous insects: implications for adaptive forest management

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, Frazer H; Stone, Graham N; Nicholls, James A; Cavers, Stephen; Gibbs, Melanie; Butterill, Philip; Wagner, Stefanie; Ducousso, Alexis; Gerber, Sophie; Petit, Rémy J; Kremer, Antoine; Schönrogge, Karsten

    2015-01-01

    Disruption of species interactions is a key issue in climate change biology. Interactions involving forest trees may be particularly vulnerable due to evolutionary rate limitations imposed by long generation times. One mitigation strategy for such impacts is Climate matching – the augmentation of local native tree populations by input from nonlocal populations currently experiencing predicted future climates. This strategy is controversial because of potential cascading impacts on locally adapted animal communities. We explored these impacts using abundance data for local native gallwasp herbivores sampled from 20 provenances of sessile oak (Quercus petraea) planted in a common garden trial. We hypothesized that non-native provenances would show (i) declining growth performance with increasing distance between provenance origin and trial site, and (ii) phenological differences to local oaks that increased with latitudinal differences between origin and trial site. Under a local adaptation hypothesis, we predicted declining gallwasp abundance with increasing phenological mismatch between native and climate-matched trees. Both hypotheses for oaks were supported. Provenance explained significant variation in gallwasp abundance, but no gall type showed the relationship between abundance and phenological mismatch predicted by a local adaptation hypothesis. Our results show that climate matching would have complex and variable impacts on oak gall communities. PMID:26640522

  8. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

    2014-11-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

  9. Adapting to a changing world: Implications for water management.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loucks, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    Everyone is aware that the world is changing, and that many of these changes will impact our water resource supplies and how they are used and managed. It's always a challenge to try to predict the future, especially the very uncertain distant future. But one thing is certain, the future environment our descendants will experience will differ from the economic, social, technological and natural conditions we experience today. Some aspects of the changes that are happening may not be under human control, but many are. And to the extent they are, we can influence that future. In this paper I attempt to speculate about a future some 40 to 50 years from now, and how water will need to be managed then. My goal is to motivate some thinking and discussion about how we as water managers can influence and prepare ourselves (or our successors) for that future. It will require collaboration among multiple disciplines to determine how best we as a profession can help society adapt to these changes, and this in turn will require all of us to learn how to work together more effectively than we do now. This theme fits in with the current interest in sustainability, for no matter how it is defined, sustainability makes us think about the long-term future. How do we develop and manage our natural and cultural resources in ways that benefit both us and future generations of people living on this earth? What will their needs and goals be? We don't know and that is the major challenge in deciding what decisions we might make today on their behalf. Here I attempt to identify the challenges and issues water managers could be addressing some 40 to 50 years from now, and what we in each of our disciplines, and together, can begin to do now to address them.

  10. Program on Promoting Climate Change Adaptation Technologies Bridging Policy Making and Science Research in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Y.; Chiang, W.; Sui, C.; Tung, C.; Ho, H.; Li, M.; Chan, S.; Climate Change Adaptation Technologies Program, National Science Council, Taiwan

    2010-12-01

    Climate changes adaptation needs innovative technological revolution on demand for transdisciplinary studies in various temporal and spatial scales. In our proposed program, a systematic and scientific framework will be developed to promote innovative adaptation technologies with respect to providing decision making information for government sectors, enhancing applicability of scientific research output, strengthening national research capabilities, and integrating both academic and non-academic resources. The objectives of this program are to identify key issues, required technologies, and scientific knowledge for climate change adaptations, and to build a transdisciplinary platform bridging science-supported technologies required by government sectors and demand-oriented scientific research conducted by academic communities. The approach proposed herein will be practiced in vulnerable regions, such as urban, rural, mountain, river basin, and coastal areas, which are particularly sensitive to climate change. The first phase of 3-year (2011~2013) work is to deploy framework and strategies of climate change impact assessment and adaptation measures between related government sectors and researchers from academic communities. The proposed framework involves three principle research groups, namely Environmental System, Vulnerability Assessment, and Risk Management and Adaptation Technology. The goal of the first group, Environmental System, is to combine climate change projections with enhanced scientific and environmental monitoring technologies for better adaptations to future scenarios in different social, economic, and environmental sectors to support adaptation measures planning and to reduce uncertainties on assessing vulnerability. The goal of the second group, Vulnerability Assessment, is to identify interfaces and information structures of climate change vulnerably issues and to develop protocol, models, and indices for vulnerability assessment. The goal of

  11. Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

    SciTech Connect

    Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

    2015-05-25

    The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However, the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.

  12. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Seino, Hiroshi

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  13. Environmental insurance adapts to changing needs

    SciTech Connect

    Vuono, M. )

    1995-03-01

    No longer simply a specialty service niche, environmental insurance has become an increasingly important asset to businesses worldwide. Companies of all sizes are using insurance as a proactive tool for prudent environmental risk management. During the last five years, the environmental insurance industry has matured to meet the ever-changing environmental insurance needs of business. A broad range of policies and programs offers coverage against damages caused by chemical spills, hazardous material and related environmental contaminants. Securing environmental insurance coverage has become as customary for many businesses as acquiring general liability and automobile insurance.

  14. Severe Weather in a Changing Climate: Getting to Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuebbles, D. J.; Janssen, E.; Kunkel, K.

    2011-12-01

    warming, and large precipitation events will likely increase in intensity and frequency. In the presentation, we will not only discuss the recent trends in severe weather and the projections of the impacts of climate change on severe weather in the future, but also specific examples of how this information is being used in developing and applying adaptation policies.

  15. Women's role in adapting to climate change and variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvajal-Escobar, Y.; Quintero-Angel, M.; García-Vargas, M.

    2008-04-01

    Given that women are engaged in more climate-related change activities than what is recognized and valued in the community, this article highlights their important role in the adaptation and search for safer communities, which leads them to understand better the causes and consequences of changes in climatic conditions. It is concluded that women have important knowledge and skills for orienting the adaptation processes, a product of their roles in society (productive, reproductive and community); and the importance of gender equity in these processes is recognized. The relationship among climate change, climate variability and the accomplishment of the Millennium Development Goals is considered.

  16. The potential roles of science centers in climate change adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, P.

    2012-12-01

    The overwhelming consensus amongst climatologists is that anthropogenic climate change is underway, but leading climate scientists also anticipate that over the next 20 years research may only modestly reduce the uncertainty about where, when and by how much climate will change. Uncertainty presents not only scientific challenges but social, political and economic quandaries as well. Both scientific and educational communities understand that climate change will test the resilience of societies especially because of the uncertainties regarding the timing, nature and severity of climate change. Thus the need is great for civic conversations regarding climate change adaptation. What roles might science centers play in helping their audiences and communities make decisions about climate change adaptation despite less-than-perfect knowledge? And how might informal and formal education work together on this task? This session will begin with a review of some initial efforts by selected science centers and their partners to engage their audiences in and help their communities grapple with climate change adaptation. It then will conclude with an audience discussion about potential future efforts by science centers both individually and in collaboration with formal education institutions to elevate public and policymaker awareness and appreciation of the need for climate change adaptation.

  17. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes

  18. Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?

    PubMed

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Friel, Sharon

    2012-01-01

    Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities. PMID:22632569

  19. National Hydroclimatic Change and Infrastructure Adaptation Assessment: Region-Specific Adaptation Factors

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change, land use and socioeconomic developments are principal variables that define the need and scope of adaptive engineering and management to sustain water resource and infrastructure development. As described in IPCC (2007), hydroclimatic changes in the next 30-50 ye...

  20. Governance of social dilemmas in climate change adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisaro, Alexander; Hinkel, Jochen

    2016-04-01

    In the field of adaptation governance research, current discussion on the barriers to adaptation shows that theoretical explanations for why institutions emerge and how they enable or constrain adaptation are underdeveloped. In this Perspective, we show that there is a significant opportunity to advance the understanding of adaptation governance by integrating insights that have been developed in the extensive commons literature on the institutions that work to overcome social conflicts or dilemmas. 'Realist-materialist' approaches to understanding such collective action are particularly valuable to adaptation governance research because they emphasize how biophysical conditions give rise to certain types of social dilemma. Climate change affects these biophysical conditions, and thus may alter dilemmas or create new ones. Based on realist-materialist reasoning, this Perspective describes six types of dilemma, illustrates each with a case from the adaptation literature and draws on insights from the commons literature regarding relevant contextual conditions and effective policy instruments for overcoming social dilemmas. The dilemma types provide entry points for rigorous comparative adaptation research to deepen understanding of how context influences adaptation governance processes.

  1. Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wein, Anne M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines possible adaptations to climate change in terms of pasture and crop land use and stocking rate in the United States (U.S.). Using Agricultural Census and climate data in a statistical model, we find that as temperature and precipitation increases agricultural commodity producers respond by reducing crop land and increasing pasture land. In addition, cattle stocking rate decreases as the summer Temperature-humidity Index (THI) increases and summer precipitation decreases. Using the statistical model with climate data from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), we project that land use shifts from cropping to grazing and the stocking rate declines, and these adaptations are more pronounced in the central and the southeast regions of the U.S. Controlling for other farm production variables, crop land decreases by 6 % and pasture land increases by 33 % from the baseline. Correspondingly, the associated economic impact due to adaptation is around -14 and 29 million dollars to crop producers and pasture producers by the end of this century, respectively. The national and regional results have implications for farm programs and subsidy policies.

  2. Adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability: a comparative study between seven contrasting river basins.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Droogers, P.

    2003-04-01

    Climate change and climate variability is and will have a tremendous impact on hydrology and consequently on food security and environmental protection. From the four major components in climate change and climate variability studies, projection, mitigation, impact and adaptation, has the latter so far received less attention than the other three. An international collaboration of ten institutions is comparing adaptation strategies between contrasting basins ranging from wet to dry and from poor to rich. Basins included are: Mekong, Walawe (Sri Lanka), Rhine, Sacramento, Syr Darya, Volta, and Zayandeh (Iran). Simulation models at basin and field scale have been set up and possible adaptation strategies are explored by these models. Preliminary results indicate that appropriate adaptation strategies are different between these seven contrasting basins. It is also clear that these adaptation strategies should focus on increased variability rather than on the overall change of the mean. The focus was hereby not only on an increase in variation but especially on the number of successive dry and wet years. Results show that the studies on these adaptation strategies could not be performed only at one scale, but that a combination of field scale as well as basin scale analysis is essential.

  3. The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

  4. Adaptive potential of a Pacific salmon challenged by climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muñoz, Nicolas J.; Farrell, Anthony P.; Heath, John W.; Neff, Bryan D.

    2015-02-01

    Pacific salmon provide critical sustenance for millions of people worldwide and have far-reaching impacts on the productivity of ecosystems. Rising temperatures now threaten the persistence of these important fishes, yet it remains unknown whether populations can adapt. Here, we provide the first evidence that a Pacific salmon has both physiological and genetic capacities to increase its thermal tolerance in response to rising temperatures. In juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a 4 °C increase in developmental temperature was associated with a 2 °C increase in key measures of the thermal performance of cardiac function. Moreover, additive genetic effects significantly influenced several measures of cardiac capacity, indicative of heritable variation on which selection can act. However, a lack of both plasticity and genetic variation was found for the arrhythmic temperature of the heart, constraining this upper thermal limit to a maximum of 24.5 +/- 2.2 °C. Linking this constraint on thermal tolerance with present-day river temperatures and projected warming scenarios, we predict a 17% chance of catastrophic loss in the population by 2100 based on the average warming projection, with this chance increasing to 98% in the maximum warming scenario. Climate change mitigation is thus necessary to ensure the future viability of Pacific salmon populations.

  5. Limits to health adaptation in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2015-12-01

    Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the magnitude and pattern of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

  6. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Cities: A Global Baseline.

    PubMed

    Araos, Malcolm; Austin, Stephanie E; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will have significant impacts on human health, and urban populations are expected to be highly sensitive. The health risks from climate change in cities are compounded by rapid urbanization, high population density, and climate-sensitive built environments. Local governments are positioned to protect populations from climate health risks, but it is unclear whether municipalities are producing climate-adaptive policies. In this article, we develop and apply systematic methods to assess the state of public health adaptation in 401 urban areas globally with more than 1 million people, creating the first global baseline for urban public health adaptation. We find that only 10% of the sampled urban areas report any public health adaptation initiatives. The initiatives identified most frequently address risks posed by extreme weather events and involve direct changes in management or behavior rather than capacity building, research, or long-term investments in infrastructure. Based on our characterization of the current urban health adaptation landscape, we identify several gaps: limited evidence of reporting of institutional adaptation at the municipal level in urban areas in the Global South; lack of information-based adaptation initiatives; limited focus on initiatives addressing infectious disease risks; and absence of monitoring, reporting, and evaluation. PMID:26705309

  7. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Louisa S.; Hicks, Christina C.; Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L.; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute. PMID:26960200

  8. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    PubMed

    Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Adger, W Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute. PMID:26960200

  9. Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

  10. Water governance: learning by developing adaptive capacity to incorporate climate variability and change.

    PubMed

    Kashyap, A

    2004-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities. PMID:15195430

  11. Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

    PubMed

    Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making. PMID:20383706

  12. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  13. Adapting to Change: The Value of Change Information and Meaning-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van den Heuvel, Machteld; Demerouti, Evangelia; Bakker, Arnold B.; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this 3-wave study is to examine the micro process of how employees adapt to change over time. We combined Conservation of Resources theory with insights from the organizational change literature to study employees in a Dutch police district undergoing reorganization. A model was tested where employee adaptability, operationalized by…

  14. Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation.

    PubMed

    Holmner, Asa; Rocklöv, Joacim; Ng, Nawi; Nilsson, Maria

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on 'green information and communication technology (ICT)' are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies. PMID:22679398

  15. Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Holmner, Åsa; Rocklöv, Joacim; Ng, Nawi; Nilsson, Maria

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on ‘green information and communication technology (ICT)’ are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies. PMID:22679398

  16. Climate Change Adaptation Science Activities at NASA Johnson Space Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stefanov, William L.; Lulla, Kamlesh

    2012-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center (JSC), located in the southeast metropolitan region of Houston, TX is the prime NASA center for human spaceflight operations and astronaut training, but it also houses the unique collection of returned extraterrestrial samples, including lunar samples from the Apollo missions. The Center's location adjacent to Clear Lake and the Clear Creek watershed, an estuary of Galveston Bay, puts it at direct annual risk from hurricanes, but also from a number of other climate-related hazards including drought, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, and high wind events all assigned Threat Levels of 2 or 3 in the most recent NASA Center Disaster/Risk Matrix produced by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Working Group. Based on prior CASI workshops at other NASA centers, it is recognized that JSC is highly vulnerable to climate-change related hazards and has a need for adaptation strategies. We will present an overview of prior CASI-related work at JSC, including publication of a climate change and adaptation informational data brochure, and a Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop that was held at JSC in early March 2012. Major outcomes of that workshop that form a basis for work going forward are 1) a realization that JSC is embedded in a regional environmental and social context, and that potential climate change effects and adaptation strategies will not, and should not, be constrained by the Center fence line; 2) a desire to coordinate data collection and adaptation planning activities with interested stakeholders to form a regional climate change adaptation center that could facilitate interaction with CASI; 3) recognition that there is a wide array of basic data (remotely sensed, in situ, GIS/mapping, and historical) available through JSC and other stakeholders, but this data is not yet centrally accessible for planning purposes.

  17. Human Interventions versus Climate Change: Impacts on Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

    2009-12-01

    Water availability and occurrence of water induced disasters are impacted by both natural and human centric drivers. Climate change is considered to be one of the noted drivers in this regard. Human interventions through land use/land cover change, stream and floodplain regulations via dams, weirs, and embankments could be other equally important group of drivers. Unlike developed countries that have both resources and capabilities to adapt and mitigate the impact of such drivers, developing countries are increasingly at more risk. Identifying roles of such drivers are fundamental to the formulation of any adaptation and mitigation plans for their impacts for developing countries. In this study, we present a few examples from three regions of Nepal- a developing country in South Asia generally considered as a water rich country. Through results of modeling and statistical analyses, we show which driver is in control in different watersheds. Preliminary results show that climate change impact appears to be more prominent in large snow-fed river basins. In the smaller non-snow-fed watersheds originating from the middle hill, the impacts are not explicit despite perception of local people about changes in the water availability. In the southern belt bordering India, the impacts of river regulation on downstream areas are found to be the principal cause of flooding/inundation.

  18. Adaptation services of floodplains and wetlands under transformational climate change.

    PubMed

    Colloff, Matthew; Lavorel, Sandra; Wise, Russell M; Dunlop, Michael; Overton, Ian C; Williams, Kristen J

    2016-06-01

    Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can

  19. A Web Based Geographic Information Platform to Support Urban Adaptation to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Nugent, Philip J; Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Mei, Rui; Ernst, Kathleen M; Absar, Mariya

    2015-01-01

    The urban climate is changing rapidly. Therefore, climate change and its projected impacts on environmental conditions must be considered in assessing and comparing urban planning alternatives. In this paper, we present an integrated framework for urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT) that will help cities to plan for, rather than react to, possible risks. Urban-CAT will be developed as a scenario planning tool that is locally relevant to existing urban decision-making processes.

  20. Developing the evidence base for mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change.

    PubMed

    Gersonius, B; Nasruddin, F; Ashley, R; Jeuken, A; Pathirana, A; Zevenbergen, C

    2012-12-15

    In a context of high uncertainty about hydro-climatic variables, the development of updated methods for climate impact and adaptation assessment is as important, if not more important than the provision of improved climate change data. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid method to facilitate mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change: i.e., the Mainstreaming method. The Mainstreaming method starts with an analysis of adaptation tipping points (ATPs), which is effect-based. These are points of reference where the magnitude of climate change is such that acceptable technical, environmental, societal or economic standards may be compromised. It extends the ATP analysis to include aspects from a bottom-up approach. The extension concerns the analysis of adaptation opportunities in the stormwater system. The results from both analyses are then used in combination to identify and exploit Adaptation Mainstreaming Moments (AMMs). Use of this method will enhance the understanding of the adaptive potential of stormwater systems. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to the management of flood risk for an urban stormwater system in Dordrecht (the Netherlands). The main finding of this case study is that the application of the Mainstreaming method helps to increase the no-/low-regret character of adaptation for several reasons: it focuses the attention on the most urgent effects of climate change; it is expected to lead to potential cost reductions, since adaptation options can be integrated into infrastructure and building design at an early stage instead of being applied separately; it will lead to the development of area-specific responses, which could not have been developed on a higher scale level; it makes it possible to take account of local values and sensibilities, which contributes to increased public and political support for the adaptive strategies. PMID:22575154

  1. The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change.

    PubMed

    Warren, Rachel

    2011-01-13

    The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4°C world, and also makes a comparison with a 2°C world. In a 4°C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4°C world. By contrast, a 2°C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the Earth's forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2°C or a 4°C world. PMID:21115521

  2. 78 FR 65980 - Notice of Availability for Public Review and Comment: Draft EPA Climate Change Adaptation...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-04

    ... AGENCY Notice of Availability for Public Review and Comment: Draft EPA Climate Change Adaptation... programmatic requirements, chief among these protection of human health and the environment. Adaptation will... under changing climatic conditions. Adaptation also necessitates close coordination between EPA and...

  3. Rice Production Vulnerability to Climate Change in Indonesia: An Overview on Community-based Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komaladara, A. A. S. P.; Budiasa, I. W.; Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.

    2015-12-01

    Rice remains to be a major crop and staple food in Indonesia. The task to ensure that rice production meets the demand of a growing population continues to engage the attention of national planners and policy makers. However, the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture production have presented Indonesia with yet another significant challenge. The exposure of rice crops to climate-related hazards such as temperature stress, floods, and drought, may lead to lower yield and self-sufficiency rate. This study explores the vulnerability of rice production to the effects of climate change in Indonesia. Considering the vast geographical span of the country and varying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change at regional level, this study emphasize the importance of community-based adaptation. Results from a simulation based on production and climate data from 1984 to 2014 indicates that rice production is sensitive to variation in growing season temperature and precipitation. A projection of these climate factors in 2050 has a significant impact on the major rice crop. To manage the impact of climate change, this study turns to the potential roles of farmer organizations, such as Subak, in adaptation strategies. The Subak in Bali is recognized for its cultural and organizational framework that highlights the sharing of knowledge and local wisdom in rice production. This is demonstrated by its efficient community-based irrigation management system, leading to sustainable rice production. Keywords: rice production, climate change, community-based adaptation, Indonesia

  4. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  5. Climate change adaptation through urban heat management in Atlanta, Georgia.

    PubMed

    Stone, Brian; Vargo, Jason; Liu, Peng; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead

    2013-07-16

    This study explores the potential effectiveness of metropolitan land cover change as a climate change adaptation strategy for managing rising temperatures in a large and rapidly warming metropolitan region of the United States. Through the integration of a mesoscale meteorological model with estimated land cover data for the Atlanta, Georgia region in 2010, this study quantifies the influence of extensive land cover change at the periphery of a large metropolitan region on temperature within the city center. The first study to directly model a metropolitan scale heat transfer mechanism, we find both enhanced tree canopy and impervious cover in the suburban zones of the Atlanta region to produce statistically significant cooling and warming effects in the urban core. Based on these findings, we conclude that urban heat island management both within and beyond the central developed core of large cities may provide an effective climate change adaptation strategy for large metropolitan regions. PMID:23734623

  6. Climate change: could it help develop 'adaptive expertise'?

    PubMed

    Bell, Erica; Horton, Graeme; Blashki, Grant; Seidel, Bastian M

    2012-05-01

    Preparing health practitioners to respond to the rising burden of disease from climate change is emerging as a priority in health workforce policy and planning. However, this issue is hardly represented in the medical education research. The rapidly evolving wide range of direct and indirect consequences of climate change will require health professionals to have not only broad content knowledge but also flexibility and responsiveness to diverse regional conditions as part of complex health problem-solving and adaptation. It is known that adaptive experts may not necessarily be quick at solving familiar problems, but they do creatively seek to better solve novel problems. This may be the result of an acquired approach to practice or a pathway that can be fostered by learning environments. It is also known that building adaptive expertise in medical education involves putting students on a learning pathway that requires them to have, first, the motivation to innovatively problem-solve and, second, exposure to diverse content material, meaningfully presented. Including curriculum content on the health effects of climate change could help meet these two conditions for some students at least. A working definition and illustrative competencies for adaptive expertise for climate change, as well as examples of teaching and assessment approaches extrapolated from rural curricula, are provided. PMID:21063771

  7. Mulit Criteria - Application on Climate Change Adaptation and Biofuel Cultivation on Contaminated Land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson-Sköld, Yvonne; Suer, Pascal; Bergman, Ramona; Helgesson, Helena

    2010-05-01

    A decision support tool/method has been developed to systematically include sustainability at an early stage in planning issues. Sustainability was subdivided into human health, environmental impacts, resources, and social and economic impacts. Health, environmental and resources impacts were based on the Swedish environmental objectives, life cycle assessment (LCA) impact categories, and contaminated soil guidelines. The resulting impact indicators were climate change - global warming potential, large scale and local air quality, water and soil quality, landscape, energy, materials, wellbeing/welfare, direct financial costs, social economic aspects, and flexi-bility. The method offers an iterative discussion framework that is systematic, condensed and yet a simplistic way of describing consequences of climate change and related adaptation measures including economic, social and environmental aspects. Application of the tool to biofuel cultivation on contaminated soil indicated that traditional soil remediation may have higher social and economical benefits but be less suitable from a health, environment, and resources perspective. The tool has further been applied in municipalities on climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Re-sults from the application in tree municipalities will be presented: Gothenburg City, Lidköping and Arvika. In Gothenburg and Lidköping the major impact of climate change is increase in sea water level (North Sea and Lake Vänern respectively) combined with extreme weather conditions. According to regional climate change scenarios Arvika is located in one of the worst affected areas in Sweden with respect to increase of intensive rainfall and extreme flows. The adaptation measures investigated at the three locations include doing nothing, different constructions and planning. The results are based on previous risk identification investigations, flood and land slide maps and interviews with civil servants in the three municipalities.

  8. Global assessment of technological innovation for climate change adaptation and mitigation in developing world.

    PubMed

    Adenle, Ademola A; Azadi, Hossein; Arbiol, Joseph

    2015-09-15

    Concerns about mitigating and adapting to climate change resulted in renewing the incentive for agricultural research investments and developing further innovation priorities around the world particularly in developing countries. In the near future, development of new agricultural measures and proper diffusion of technologies will greatly influence the ability of farmers in adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Using bibliometric approaches through output of academic journal publications and patent-based data, we assess the impact of research and development (R&D) for new and existing technologies within the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We show that many developing countries invest limited resources for R&D in relevant technologies that have great potential for mitigation and adaption in agricultural production. We also discuss constraints including weak infrastructure, limited research capacity, lack of credit facilities and technology transfer that may hinder the application of innovation in tackling the challenges of climate change. A range of policy measures is also suggested to overcome identified constraints and to ensure that potentials of innovation for climate change mitigation and adaptation are realized. PMID:26189184

  9. Health care facilities resilient to climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Paterson, Jaclyn; Berry, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Varangu, Linda

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator's guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change. PMID:25522050

  10. Health care facilities resilient to climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Paterson, Jaclyn; Berry, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Varangu, Linda

    2014-12-01

    Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator's guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned are as were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change. PMID:25590098

  11. Health Care Facilities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Paterson, Jaclyn; Berry, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Varangu, Linda

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator’s guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change. PMID:25522050

  12. Climate Change Adaptation Among Tibetan Pastoralists: Challenges in Enhancing Local Adaptation Through Policy Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Yao; Grumbine, R. Edward; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Yun; Xu, Jian-Chu; Yang, Yong-Ping

    2012-10-01

    While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.

  13. A need for planned adaptation to climate change in the wine industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metzger, Marc J.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

    2011-09-01

    The diversity of wine production depends on subtle differences in microclimate and is therefore especially sensitive to climate change. A warmer climate will impact directly on wine-grapes through over-ripening, drying out, rising acidity levels, and greater vulnerability to pests and disease, resulting in changes in wine quality (e.g. complexity, balance and structure) or potentially the style of wine that can be produced. The growing scientific evidence for significant climate change in the coming decades means that adaptation will be of critical importance to the multi-billion dollar global wine-industry in general, and to quality wine producers in particular (White et al 2006, 2009; Hertsgaard 2011). Adaptation is understood as an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected environmental change, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC 2007). Autonomous adaptation has been an integral part of the 20th century wine industry. Technological advances, changes in consumer demand, and global competition have meant that growers and producers have had to adapt to stay in business. The gradual temperature rise in the 20th Century (0.7 °C globally) has been accommodated successfully by gradual changes in vine management, technological measures, production control, and marketing (White et al 2009), although this has in many cases resulted in the production of bolder, more alcoholic wines (Hertsgaard 2011). In spite of this success, the wine industry is surprisingly conservative when it comes to considering longer term planned adaptation for substantial climate change impacts. A few producers are expanding to new locations at higher altitudes or cooler climates (e.g. Torres is developing new vineyards high in the Pyrenees, and Mouton Rothschild is setting up new vineyards in South America), and the legal and cultural restrictions of Appelation d'Origine Cȏntrollée (AOC) systems are being discussed (White et al 2009

  14. HyCAW: Hydrological Climate change Adaptation Wizard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Broccoli, Davide; Luzzi, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Changes in temporal and total water availability due to hydrologic and climate change requires an efficient use of resources through the selection of the best adaptation options. HyCAW provides a novel service to users willing or needing to adapt to hydrological change, by turning available scientific information into a user friendly online wizard that lets to: • Evaluate the monthly reduction of water availability induced by climate change; • Select the best adaptation options and visualize the benefits in terms of water balance and cost reduction; • Quantify potential of water saving by improving of water use efficiency. The tool entails knowledge of the intra-annual distribution of available surface and groundwater flows at a site under present and future (climate change) scenarios. This information is extracted from long term scenario simulation by E-HYPE (European hydrological predictions for the environment) model from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, to quantify the expected evolution in water availability (e.g. percent reduction of soil infiltration and aquifer recharge; relative seasonal shift of runoff from summer to winter in mountain areas; etc.). Users are requested to provide in input their actual water supply on a monthly basis, both from surface and groundwater sources. Appropriate decision trees and an embedded precompiled database of Water saving technology for different sectors (household, agriculture, industrial, tourisms) lead them to interactively identify good practices for water saving/recycling/harvesting that they may implement in their specific context. Thanks to this service, users are not required to have a detailed understanding neither of data nor of hydrological processes, but may benefit of scientific analysis directly for practical adaptation in a simple and user friendly way, effectively improving their adaptation capacity. The tool is being developed under a collaborative FP7 funded project called SWITCH

  15. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects.

    PubMed

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-02-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90%) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. PMID:26306792

  16. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-02-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37 % of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90 %) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

  17. "Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

    2015-01-01

    Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

  18. Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C. C.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred.

  19. Climate Change and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The Adaptation Challenge

    SciTech Connect

    Fowler, Kimberly M.; Hjeresen, Dennis; Silverman, Josh

    2015-02-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has been adapting to climate change related impacts that have been occurring on decadal time scales. The region where LANL is located has been subject to a cascade of climate related impacts: drought, devastating wildfires, and historic flooding events. Instead of buckling under the pressure, LANL and the surrounding communities have integrated climate change mitigation strategies into their daily operations and long-term plans by increasing coordination and communication between the Federal, State, and local agencies in the region, identifying and aggressively managing forested areas in need of near-term attention, addressing flood control and retention issues, and more.

  20. Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This techn...

  1. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Müller, Christoph; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Schmitz, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne

    2015-09-01

    Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.

  2. Assessing indigenous knowledge systems and climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture: A case study of Chagaka Village, Chikhwawa, Southern Malawi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nkomwa, Emmanuel Charles; Joshua, Miriam Kalanda; Ngongondo, Cosmo; Monjerezi, Maurice; Chipungu, Felistus

    In Malawi, production from subsistence rain fed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. In response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability, a National Adaptation Programme of Action is used as framework for implementing adaptation programmes. However, this framework puts limited significance on indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). In many parts of the world, IKS have shown potential in the development of locally relevant and therefore sustainable adaptation strategies. This study was aimed at assessing the role of IKS in adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in a rural district of Chikhwawa, southern Malawi. The study used both qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews and quantitative data from household interviews and secondary data to address the research objectives. The study established that the local communities are able to recognise the changes in their climate and local environment. Commonly mentioned indicators of changing climatic patterns included delayed and unpredictable onset of rainfall, declining rainfall trends, warming temperatures and increased frequency of prolonged dry spells. An analysis of empirical data corroborates the people's perception. In addition, the community is able to use their IKS to adapt their agricultural systems to partially offset the effects of climate change. Like vulnerability to climate change, IKS varies over a short spatial scale, providing locally relevant adaptation to impacts of climate change. This paper therefore advocates for the integration of IKS in programmes addressing adaptation to climate change and vulnerability. This will serve to ensure sustainable and relevant adaptation strategies.

  3. Impact of Alcohol Abuse on the Adaptive Immune System

    PubMed Central

    Pasala, Sumana; Barr, Tasha; Messaoudi, Ilhem

    2015-01-01

    Alcohol exposure, and particularly chronic heavy drinking, affects all components of the adaptive immune system. Studies both in humans and in animal models determined that chronic alcohol abuse reduces the number of peripheral T cells, disrupts the balance between different T-cell types, influences T-cell activation, impairs T-cell functioning, and promotes T-cell apoptosis. Chronic alcohol exposure also seems to cause loss of peripheral B cells, while simultaneously inducing increased production of immunoglobulins. In particular, the levels of antibodies against liver-specific autoantigens are increased in patients with alcoholic liver disease and may promote alcohol-related liver damage. Finally, chronic alcohol exposure in utero interferes with normal T-cell and B-cell development, which may increase the risk of infections during both childhood and adulthood. Alcohol’s impact on T cells and B cells increases the risk of infections (e.g., pneumonia, HIV infection, hepatitis C virus infection, and tuberculosis), impairs responses to vaccinations against such infections, exacerbates cancer risk, and interferes with delayed-type hypersensitivity. In contrast to these deleterious effects of heavy alcohol exposure, moderate alcohol consumption may have beneficial effects on the adaptive immune system, including improved responses to vaccination and infection. The molecular mechanisms underlying ethanol’s impact on the adaptive immune system remain poorly understood. PMID:26695744

  4. Loss of adaptive variation during evolutionary responses to climate change.

    PubMed

    Buckley, James; Bridle, Jon R

    2014-10-01

    The changes in species' geographical distribution demanded by climate change are often critically limited by the availability of key interacting species. In such cases, species' persistence will depend on the rapid evolution of biotic interactions. Understanding evolutionary limits to such adaptation is therefore crucial for predicting biological responses to environmental change. The recent poleward range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly has been associated with a shift in female preference from its main host plant, rockrose (Cistaceae), onto Geraniaceae host plants throughout its new distribution. Using reciprocal transplants onto natural host plants across the UK range, we demonstrate reduced fitness of females from recently colonised Geraniaceae-dominated habitat when moved to ancestral rockrose habitats. By contrast, individuals from ancestral rockrose habitats show no reduction in fitness on Geraniaceae. Climate-driven range expansion in this species is therefore associated with the rapid evolution of biotic interactions and a significant loss of adaptive variation. PMID:25104062

  5. Impact of epistasis and pleiotropy on evolutionary adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Østman, Bjørn; Hintze, Arend; Adami, Christoph

    2012-01-01

    Evolutionary adaptation is often likened to climbing a hill or peak. While this process is simple for fitness landscapes where mutations are independent, the interaction between mutations (epistasis) as well as mutations at loci that affect more than one trait (pleiotropy) are crucial in complex and realistic fitness landscapes. We investigate the impact of epistasis and pleiotropy on adaptive evolution by studying the evolution of a population of asexual haploid organisms (haplotypes) in a model of N interacting loci, where each locus interacts with K other loci. We use a quantitative measure of the magnitude of epistatic interactions between substitutions, and find that it is an increasing function of K. When haplotypes adapt at high mutation rates, more epistatic pairs of substitutions are observed on the line of descent than expected. The highest fitness is attained in landscapes with an intermediate amount of ruggedness that balance the higher fitness potential of interacting genes with their concomitant decreased evolvability. Our findings imply that the synergism between loci that interact epistatically is crucial for evolving genetic modules with high fitness, while too much ruggedness stalls the adaptive process. PMID:21697174

  6. Climate change adaptation under uncertainty in the developing world: A case study of sea level rise in Kiribati

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in parts of the developing world. At the 2010 meeting of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, industrialized countries agreed in principle to provide US$100 billion per year by 2020 to assist the developing world respond to climate change. This "Green Climate Fund" is a critical step towards addressing the challenge of climate change. However, the policy and discourse on supporting adaptation in the developing world remains highly idealized. For example, the efficacy of "no regrets" adaptation efforts or "mainstreaming" adaptation into decision-making are rarely evaluated in the real world. In this presentation, I will discuss the gap between adaptation theory and practice using a multi-year case study of the cultural, social and scientific obstacles to adapting to sea level rise in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati. Our field research reveals how scientific and institutional uncertainty can limit international efforts to fund adaptation and lead to spiraling costs. Scientific uncertainty about hyper-local impacts of sea level rise, though irreducible, can at times limit decision-making about adaptation measures, contrary to the notion that "good" decision-making practices can incorporate scientific uncertainty. Efforts to improve institutional capacity must be done carefully, or they risk inadvertently slowing the implementation of adaptation measures and increasing the likelihood of "mal"-adaptation.

  7. Adaptive response of pulmonary arterial smooth muscle to length change.

    PubMed

    Syyong, Harley; Cheung, Christine; Solomon, Dennis; Seow, Chun Y; Kuo, Kuo H

    2008-04-01

    Hypervasoconstriction is associated with pulmonary hypertension and dysfunction of the pulmonary arterial smooth muscle (PASM) is implicated. However, relatively little is known about the mechanical properties of PASM. Recent advances in our understanding of plastic adaptation in smooth muscle may shed light on the disease mechanism. In this study, we determined whether PASM is capable of adapting to length changes (especially shortening) and regain its contractile force. We examined the time course of length adaptation in PASM in response to step changes in length and to length oscillations mimicking the periodic stretches due to pulsatile arterial pressure. Rings from sheep pulmonary artery were mounted on myograph and stimulated using electrical field stimulation (12-16 s, 20 V, 60 Hz). The length-force relationship was determined at L(ref) to 0.6 L(ref), where L(ref) was a reference length close to the in situ length of PASM. The response to length oscillations was determined at L(ref), after the muscle was subjected to length oscillation of various amplitudes for 200 s at 1.5 Hz. Release (or stretch) of resting PASM from L(ref) to 0.6 (and vice versa) was followed by a significant force recovery (73 and 63%, respectively), characteristic of length adaptation. All recoveries of force followed a monoexponential time course. Length oscillations with amplitudes ranging from 5 to 20% L(ref) caused no significant change in force generation in subsequent contractions. It is concluded that, like many smooth muscles, PASM possesses substantial capability to adapt to changes in length. Under pathological conditions, this could contribute to hypervasoconstriction in pulmonary hypertension. PMID:18218913

  8. Water Demands with Two Adaptation Responses to Climate Change in a Mexican Irrigation District

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ojeda, W.; Iñiguez-Covarrubias, M.; Rojano, A.

    2012-12-01

    It is well documented that climate change is inevitable and that farmers need to adapt to changes in projected climate. Changes in water demands for a Mexican irrigation district were assessed using an irrigation scheduling model. The impact of two adaptations actions on water demands were estimated and compared with a baseline scenario. Wet and dry cropping plans were selected from the last 15 water years with actual climatology (1961-1990) taken as reference and three A1B climate change projection periods P1, P2 and P3 (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2098). Projected precipitation and air temperature (medium, maximum and minimum) data were obtained through weighted averages of the best CGCM projections for Mexico, available at the IPCC data distribution center, using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging method (REA). Two adaptation farmers' responses were analyzed: use of longer season varieties and reduction of planting dates toward colder season as warming intensifies in the future. An annual accumulated ETo value of 1554 mm was estimated for the base period P0. Cumulative and Daily irrigations demands were generated for each agricultural season using the four climate projection series and considering adaptations actions. Figure 1 integrates in a unique net flow curve for the Fall-Winter season under selected adaptations actions. The simulation results indicated that for mid century (Period P2), the use of longer-season cultivars (AV) will have more pronounced effect in daily net flow based than the reduction of planting season (APS) as climate change intensifies during present century. Without adaptation (WA), the increase in temperature will shorten the growing season of all annual crops, generating a peak shift with respect to reference case (WA-P0). Combined adoptions of adaptation actions (AP+V) can generate higher, peak and cumulative, crop water requirements than actual values as Figure 1 shows. There are clear trends that without adaptations, water

  9. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    PubMed

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. PMID:26630544

  10. Using Local Stories as a Call to Action on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Minnesota

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phipps, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy and the University of Minnesota's Regional Sustainability Development Partnerships (RSDP) have developed a novel approach to engaging rural Minnesotans on climate change issues. Through the use of personal, local stories about individuals' paths to action to mitigate and or adapt to climate change, Climate Generation and RSDP aim to spur others to action. Minnesota's Changing Climate project includes 12 Climate Convenings throughout rural Minnesota in a range of communities (tourism-based, agrarian, natural resources-based, university towns) to engage local populations in highly local conversations about climate change, its local impacts, and local solutions currently occurring. Climate Generation and RSDP have partnered with Molly Phipps Consulting to evaluate the efficacy of this approach in rural Minnesota. Data include pre and post convening surveys examining participants' current action around climate change, attitudes toward climate change (using questions from Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz, 2009), and the strength of their social network to support their current and ongoing work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Although the Climate Convenings are tailored to each community, all include a resource fair of local organizations already engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation activities which participants can participate in, a welcome from a trusted local official, a presentation on the science of climate change, sharing of local climate stories, and break-out groups where participants can learn how to get involved in a particular mitigation or adaptation strategy. Preliminary results have been positive: participants feel motivated to work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change, and more local stories have emerged that can be shared in follow-up webinars and on a project website to continue to inspire others to act.

  11. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Comoe River Basin (West Africa).

    PubMed

    Yéo, Wonnan Eugène; Goula, Bi Tié Albert; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Afouda, Abel

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is impacting water users in many sectors: water supply, farming, industry, hydropower, fishing, housing, navigation and health. Existing situations, like population growth, movement of populations from rural to urban areas, poverty and pollution can aggravate the impacts of climate change. The aim of the study is to evaluate the vulnerability of different water user groups to climate change and define communities' adaptation strategies in the Comoe River Basin. Information was collected on communities' concerns and perception on changes in climate and potential adaptation measures and strategies. Results show that 95 % of the sample in the study communities had heard of it and are aware that climate change is occurring. They have been experiencing changes in economic activity and cropping pattern, reduced water level in rivers, crop failure, delay in cropping season, new pests and diseases, food insecurity, drop in income and decline in crop yield. Results also show that communities employ various adaptation strategies including crops diversification, substitution and calendar redefinition, agroforestry, borrowing from friends and money lenders and increasing fertilizer application. PMID:27386296

  12. Climate change risks to United States infrastructure: impacts on coastal development, roads, bridges, and urban drainage

    EPA Science Inventory

    Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of infrastructure, its deployment, and its role in protecting econom...

  13. Understanding Indian Institutional Networks and Participation in Water Management Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azhoni, A.; Holman, I.; Jude, S.

    2014-12-01

    Adaptation to climate change for water management involves complex interactions between different actors and sectors. The need to understand the relationships between key stakeholder institutions (KSIs) is increasingly recognized. The complexity of water management in India has meant that enhancing adaptive capacity through improved inter-institutional networks remains a challenge for both government and non-governmental institutions. To analyse such complex inter-actions this study has used Social Network and Stakeholder Analysis tools to quantify the participation of, and interactions between, each KSI in the climate change adaptation and water discourse based on keyword analysis of their online presence. Using NodeXL, a Social Network Analysis tool, network diagrams have been used to evaluate the inter-relationships between these KSIs. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with twenty-five KSIs to identify the main barriers to adaptation and to triangulate the findings of the e-documents analysis. The analysis found that there is an inverse relationship between institutions' reference to water and climate change in their web-documents. Most institutions emphasize mitigation rather than adaptation. Bureaucratic delays, poor coordination between the KSIs, unclear policies and systemic deficiencies are identified as key barriers to improving adaptive capacity within water management to climate change. However, the increasing attention being given to the perceived climate change impacts on the water sector and improving the inter-institutional networks are some of the opportunities for Indian water institutions. Although websites of Union Government Institutions seldom directly hyperlink to one another, they are linked through "bridging" websites which have the potential to act as brokers for enhancing adaptive capacity. The research has wider implications for analysis of complex inter-disciplinary and inter-institutional issues involving multi stakeholders.

  14. Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Broom, Donald M

    2006-01-01

    The term adaptation is used in biology in three different ways. It may refer to changes which occur at the cell and organ level, or at the individual level, or at the level of gene action and evolutionary processes. Adaptation by cells, especially nerve cells helps in: communication within the body, the distinguishing of stimuli, the avoidance of overload and the conservation of energy. The time course and complexity of these mechanisms varies. Adaptive characters of organisms, including adaptive behaviours, increase fitness so this adaptation is evolutionary. The major part of this paper concerns adaptation by individuals and its relationships to welfare. In complex animals, feed forward control is widely used. Individuals predict problems and adapt by acting before the environmental effect is substantial. Much of adaptation involves brain control and animals have a set of needs, located in the brain and acting largely via motivational mechanisms, to regulate life. Needs may be for resources but are also for actions and stimuli which are part of the mechanism which has evolved to obtain the resources. Hence pigs do not just need food but need to be able to carry out actions like rooting in earth or manipulating materials which are part of foraging behaviour. The welfare of an individual is its state as regards its attempts to cope with its environment. This state includes various adaptive mechanisms including feelings and those which cope with disease. The part of welfare which is concerned with coping with pathology is health. Disease, which implies some significant effect of pathology, always results in poor welfare. Welfare varies over a range from very good, when adaptation is effective and there are feelings of pleasure or contentment, to very poor. A key point concerning the concept of individual adaptation in relation to welfare is that welfare may be good or poor while adaptation is occurring. Some adaptation is very easy and energetically cheap and

  15. Climate Change Predictions and Adaption Strategies for Coastal NASA Langley Research Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Young, R.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change could significantly impact the personal and operations of federal coastal laboratories. The Goddard Institute for Space Studies has made downscaled climate projections for Hampton Roads, Virginia a coastal region which includes NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). These projections are being used to formulate adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce climate change impacts at the center. Sea level rise and hurricanes will have significant impacts on LaRC and strategies such as surge modeling and tide gauge measurements and now underway. A proposed windbreak will reduce the impact of hurricane winds on center infrastructure. Disease vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks are being monitored and studied for their response to climate change. LaRC has significant forest and ecosystems which will be impacted by climate change and these impacts are being quantified. Mitigation strategies are being proposed such as the design of a 3 MW solar photovoltaic array to protect the center from brownouts and loss of power to critical missions. These and other programs will be discussed to reduce climate change impacts and allow LaRC to accomplish its mission into the next century.

  16. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  17. Adaptive strategies to climate change in Southern Malawi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chidanti-Malunga, J.

    Climate change poses a big challenge to rural livelihoods in the Shire Valley area of Southern Malawi, where communities have depended almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture for generations. The Shire Valley area comprises of low-altitude dambo areas and uplands which have been the main agricultural areas. Since early to mid 1980s, the uplands have experienced prolonged droughts and poor rainfall distribution, while the dambos have experienced recurrent seasonal floods. This study assessed some of the adaptive strategies exercised by small-scale rural farmers in response to climate change in the Shire Valley. The methodology used in collecting information includes group discussions, household surveys in the area, secondary data, and field observations. The results show that small-scale rural farmers exercise a number of adaptive strategies in response to climate change. These adaptive strategies include: increased use of water resources for small-scale irrigation or wetland farming, mostly using simple delivery techniques; increased management of residual moisture; and increased alternative sources of income such as fishing and crop diversity. It was also observed that government promoted the use of portable motorized pumps for small-scale irrigation in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, these external interventions were not fully adopted; instead the farmers preferred local interventions which mostly had indigenous elements.

  18. Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

    PubMed

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries. PMID:25912918

  19. Public health impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Hales, S; Weinstein, P; Woodward, A

    1997-01-01

    The potential health impacts of climate change are wide-ranging, from direct impacts at familiar local scales, through indirect effects occurring at the regional or ecosystem level, to long term effects on the sustainability of global systems. To assess these potential impacts, there is a need to broaden the scope of health impact assessment. Eco-epidemiology is emerging as a response to this need. Eco-epidemiology entails a shift in focus: from direct (toxicological) to indirect (ecological) mechanisms; and from effects occurring at 'human' temporal and geographical scales to those at regional and geophysical scales. We discuss the potential health impacts of climate change on each scale. At the global scale, interactions and feedbacks between systems are critical determinants of long term outcomes. From an eco-epidemiological perspective, the study of climate change becomes inseparable from the study of global change more generally. PMID:9406290

  20. Creating a New Model for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation for Critical Infrastructure: The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NYC Panel on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W. D.; Freed, A. M.

    2008-12-01

    The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, launched in August 2008, aims to secure the city's critical infrastructure against rising seas, higher temperatures and fluctuating water supplies projected to result from climate change. The Climate Change Adaptation Task Force is part of PlaNYC, the city's long- term sustainability plan, and is composed of over 30 city and state agencies, public authorities and companies that operate the region's roads, bridges, tunnels, mass transit, and water, sewer, energy and telecommunications systems - all with critical infrastructure identified as vulnerable. It is one of the most comprehensive adaptation efforts yet launched by an urban region. To guide the effort, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has formed the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), modeled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Experts on the panel include climatologists, sea-level rise specialists, adaptation experts, and engineers, as well as representatives from the insurance and legal sectors. The NPCC is developing planning tools for use by the Task Force members that provide information about climate risks, adaptation and risk assessment, prioritization frameworks, and climate protection levels. The advisory panel is supplying climate change projections, helping to identify at- risk infrastructure, and assisting the Task Force in developing adaptation strategies and guidelines for design of new structures. The NPCC will also publish an assessment report in 2009 that will serve as the foundation for climate change adaptation in the New York City region, similar to the IPCC reports. Issues that the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NPCC are addressing include decision- making under climate change uncertainty, effective ways for expert knowledge to be incorporated into public actions, and strategies for maintaining consistent and effective attention to long-term climate change even as municipal governments cycle

  1. Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

    2015-05-25

    The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However,more » the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.« less

  2. Do We Need Better Climate Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dessai, S.; Hulme, M.; Lempert, R.; Pielke, R., Jr.

    2009-12-01

    Based on a series of international scientific assessments, climate change has been presented to society as a major problem that needs urgently to be tackled. The science that underpins these assessments has been pre-dominantly from the realm of the natural sciences and central to this framing have been ‘projections’ of future climate change (and its impacts on environment and society) under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and using a variety of climate model predictions with embedded assumptions. Central to much of the discussion surrounding adaptation to climate change is the claim - explicit or implicit - that decision makers need accurate and increasingly precise assessments of future impacts of climate change in order to adapt successfully. If true, this claim places a high premium on accurate and precise climate predictions at a range of geographical and temporal scales; such predictions therefore become indispensable, and indeed a prerequisite for, effective adaptation decision-making. But is effective adaptation tied to the ability of the scientific enterprise to predict future climate with accuracy and precision? If so, this may impose a serious and intractable limit on adaptation. This paper proceeds in three sections. It first gathers evidence of claims that climate prediction is necessary for adaptation decision-making. This evidence is drawn from peer-reviewed literature and from published science funding strategies and government policy in a number of different countries. The second part discusses the challenges of climate prediction and why science will consistently be unable to provide accurate and precise predictions of future climate relevant for adaptation (usually at the local/regional level). Section three discusses whether these limits to future foresight represent a limit to adaptation, arguing that effective adaptation need not be limited by a general inability to predict future climate. Given the deep uncertainties involved in

  3. Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications.

    PubMed

    Newbery, Fay; Qi, Aiming; Fitt, Bruce Dl

    2016-08-01

    Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level. PMID:27471781

  4. Climate Change and Food Security: Health Impacts in Developed Countries

    PubMed Central

    Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R.; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. Objectives: We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Methods: Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Results: Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Conclusions: Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate

  5. Preface: Monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, J. M.; Ciavola, P.; Masselink, G.; McCall, R.; Plater, A. J.

    2016-02-01

    Storms across the globe and their associated consequences in coastal zones (flooding and erosion), combined with the long-term geomorphic evolution of our coastlines, are a threat to life and assets, both socioeconomic and environmental. In a changing climate, with a rising global sea level, potentially changing patterns in storm tracks and storminess, and rising population density and pressures on the coastal zone, the future risk of coastal storm impacts is likely to increase. Coastal managers and policy makers therefore need to make effective and timely decisions on the use of resources for the immediate and longer Research focused on "monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate" is becoming more common; its goal is to provide science-based decision support for effective adaptation to the consequences of storm impacts, both now and under future climate scenarios at the coast. The growing transfer of information between the science community and end-users is enabling leading research to have a greater impact on the socioeconomic resilience of coastal communities. This special issue covers recent research activities relating to coastal hazard mapping in response to extreme events, economic impacts of long-term change, coastal processes influencing management decisions and the development of online decision support tools.

  6. Climate change information supporting adaptation in forestry and agriculture - results and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gálos, Borbála; Czimber, Kornél; Gribovszki, Zoltán; Bidló, András; Csáki, Péter; Kalicz, Péter; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela; Mátyás, Csaba

    2015-04-01

    Recurrent droughts of the last decades have led to severe impacts in forestry and agriculture in the sensitive and vulnerable low-elevation regions of Southeast Europe. Observed impacts are very likely to occur with increasing probability under projected climate conditions throughout the 21st century. In order to suggest options for adaptation and mitigation, a GIS-based Decision Support System is under development in the frame of the joint EU-national research project "Agroclimate". Impact assessments and adaptation support services are based on the simulation results of 12 regional climate models (www.ensembles-eu.org) using the A1B emission scenario until 2100. The development of the Decision Support System requires the balancing of available climatic information and required data for research and economically relevant projection needs of the end users. Here, concrete examples of the development process will be shown for the stepwise analysis and comparison of the followings: 1. Provided climate services: • projected tendencies of temperature and precipitation means and extremes until the end of the 21st century, spread of the simulation results. 2. Required information for climate impact research: • types and characteristics of climate input data, • methods and functions for deriving possible climate change impacts in forestry and agriculture (e.g. on species distribution, growth, production, yield, soil water retention, ground water table, runoff, erosion, evapotranspiration and other ecosystem services and soil properties). 3. Required climate information from the end users' side for developing adaption strategies in the affected sectors: • types of climate indicators, • possible range of the expected impacts (in magnitude and probability). 4. Gaps between climate services and the needs of impact researchers and end users (e.g. spatial and temporal scales, interpretation techniques). Experiences of supporting climate change adaptation in forestry

  7. Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios; Comiti, Francesco; Fischer, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate. PMID:26119330

  8. Climate change and animal diseases: making the case for adaptation.

    PubMed

    Cáceres, Sigfrido Burgos

    2012-12-01

    The exponential expansion of the human population has led to overexploitation of resources and overproduction of items that have caused a series of potentially devastating effects, including ocean acidification, ozone depletion, biodiversity loss, the spread of invasive flora and fauna and climatic changes - along with the emergence of new diseases in animals and humans. Climate change occurs as a result of imbalances between incoming and outgoing radiation in the atmosphere. This process generates heat. As concentrations of atmospheric gases reach record levels, global temperatures are expected to increase significantly. The hydrologic cycle will be altered, since warmer air can retain more moisture than cooler air. This means that some geographic areas will have more rainfall, whereas others have more drought and severe weather. The potential consequences of significant and permanent climatic changes are altered patterns of diseases in animal and human populations, including the emergence of new disease syndromes and changes in the prevalence of existing diseases. A wider geographic distribution of known vectors and the recruitment of new strains to the vector pool could result in infections spreading to more and potentially new species of hosts. If these predictions turn out to be accurate, there will be a need for policymakers to consider alternatives, such as adaptation. This review explores the linkages between climate change and animal diseases, and examines interrelated issues that arise from altered biological dynamics. Its aim is to consider various risks and vulnerabilities and to make the case for policies favoring adaptation. PMID:23253166

  9. Hand in Hand: Public Endorsement of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A.; Dessai, Suraje

    2015-01-01

    This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research. PMID:25922938

  10. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J. Michael; Adamcik, Robert S.; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua J.; McGuire, A. David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

  11. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System.

    PubMed

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J Michael; Adamcik, Robert; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua; McGuire, A David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-12-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports. PMID:19548023

  12. Adaptation to Global Change: A Transposable Element-Epigenetics Perspective.

    PubMed

    Rey, Olivier; Danchin, Etienne; Mirouze, Marie; Loot, Céline; Blanchet, Simon

    2016-07-01

    Understanding how organisms cope with global change is a major scientific challenge. The molecular pathways underlying rapid adaptive phenotypic responses to global change remain poorly understood. Here, we highlight the relevance of two environment-sensitive molecular elements: transposable elements (TEs) and epigenetic components (ECs). We first outline the sensitivity of these elements to global change stressors and review how they interact with each other. We then propose an integrative molecular engine coupling TEs and ECs and allowing organisms to fine-tune phenotypes in a real-time fashion, adjust the production of phenotypic and genetic variation, and produce heritable phenotypes with different levels of transmission fidelity. We finally discuss the implications of this molecular engine in the context of global change. PMID:27080578

  13. Climate change adaptation in a highly urbanized snowmelt dominated basin in Central Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicuna, S.; Bustos, E.; Merino, P.; Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Jansen, S.; Gil, M.; Ocampo, A.; Poblete, D.; Tosoni, D.; Meza, F. J.; Donoso, G.; Melo, O.

    2015-12-01

    The Maipo river basin holds 40% of Chile's total population and produces almost half of the country's Gross Domestic Product. The basin is located in the semiarid and snowmelt dominated central region of the country and, aside from the typical pressures of growth in developing country basins, the Maipo river basin faces climate change impacts associated with a reduction in total runoff and changes in its seasonality. Surface water is the main water source for human settlements, natural ecosystems, and economic activities including agriculture, mining and hydropower production. In 2012 a research project, called MAPA (Maipo Plan de Adaptacion), began with the objective of articulating a climate variability and climate change adaptation plan for the Maipo river basin. The project engaged at the beginning a group of relevant water and land use stakeholders which allowed for a good representation of critical aspects of an adaptation plan such as the definition of objectives and performance indicators, future land use scenarios, modeling of the different components of the system and design of adaptation strategies. The presentation will highlight the main results of the research project with a special focus on the upper catchments of the basin. These results include the assessment of impacts associated with future climate and land use scenarios on key components of the hydrologic cycle including snowmelt and glacier contribution to runoff and subsequent impacts on water availability for the operation of hydropower facilities, satisfaction of instream (recreation and aquatic ecosystem) uses and provision of water for the city of Santiago (7 million people) and to irrigate more than 100,000 hectares of high value crops. The integrative approach followed in this project including different perspectives on the use of water in the basin provides a good opportunity to test the varying degree of impacts that could be associated with a given future scenario and also understand

  14. Plant adaptation to dynamically changing environment: the shade avoidance response.

    PubMed

    Ruberti, I; Sessa, G; Ciolfi, A; Possenti, M; Carabelli, M; Morelli, G

    2012-01-01

    The success of competitive interactions between plants determines the chance of survival of individuals and eventually of whole plant species. Shade-tolerant plants have adapted their photosynthesis to function optimally under low-light conditions. These plants are therefore capable of long-term survival under a canopy shade. In contrast, shade-avoiding plants adapt their growth to perceive maximum sunlight and therefore rapidly dominate gaps in a canopy. Daylight contains roughly equal proportions of red and far-red light, but within vegetation that ratio is lowered as a result of red absorption by photosynthetic pigments. This light quality change is perceived through the phytochrome system as an unambiguous signal of the proximity of neighbors resulting in a suite of developmental responses (termed the shade avoidance response) that, when successful, result in the overgrowth of those neighbors. Shoot elongation induced by low red/far-red light may confer high relative fitness in natural dense communities. However, since elongation is often achieved at the expense of leaf and root growth, shade avoidance may lead to reduction in crop plant productivity. Over the past decade, major progresses have been achieved in the understanding of the molecular basis of shade avoidance. However, uncovering the mechanisms underpinning plant response and adaptation to changes in the ratio of red to far-red light is key to design new strategies to precise modulate shade avoidance in time and space without impairing the overall crop ability to compete for light. PMID:21888962

  15. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  16. Economic valuation of climate change adaptation in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Stage, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on the economics of climate change adaptation in developing countries, and identifies three key points for consideration in future studies. One key point is that all development policy should be formulated using forecasts from climate science as a baseline. When this is not done, there is risk that a false status quo without climate change is seen as an implicit baseline. Another key point is that authors must be clearer about their behavioral assumptions: Many studies either (problematically) assume profit maximization on the side of farm households, or do not specify behavioral assumptions at all. A third important point is that the allocation of rights is crucial for the results; if households have a right to maintain their current livelihoods, the costs of climate change in developing countries are considerably greater than traditional willingness-to-pay studies would indicate. Thus, costs and benefits of climate change adaptation cannot be analyzed using economic aspects only; climate science, behavioral science, and legal and moral aspects have crucial implications for the outcome of the analysis. PMID:20146767

  17. [Ecophysiological adaptability of tropical water organisms to salinity changes].

    PubMed

    Chung, K S

    2001-03-01

    Physiological response of tropical organisms to salinity changes was studied for some marine, estuarine and freshwater fishes (Astyanax bimaculatus, Petenia karussii, Cyprinodon dearborni, and Oreochromis mossambicus), marine and freshwater crustaceans (Penaeus brasiliensis, Penaeus schmitti and Macrobrachium carcinus), and marine bivalves (Perna perna, Crassostrea rhizophorae, and Arca zebra) collected from Northeast Venezuela. They were acclimated for four weeks at various salinities, and (1) placed at high salinities to determine mean lethal salinity, (2) tested by increasing salinity 5@1000 per day to define upper lethal salinity tolerance limit, or (3) observed in a saline gradient tank to determine salinity preference. Acclimation level was the most significant factor. This phenomenon is important for tropical aquatic organisms in shallow waters, where they can adapt to high salinity during the dry season and cannot lose their acclimation level at low salinity during abrupt rain. For saline adaptation of tropical organisms, this behavior will contribute to their proliferation and distribution in fluctuating salinity environments. PMID:11795174

  18. The fate of early experience following developmental change: longitudinal approaches to individual adaptation in childhood.

    PubMed

    Sroufe, L A; Egeland, B; Kreutzer, T

    1990-10-01

    2 strategies were used to investigate the continued impact of early experience and adaptation given subsequent experience and/or developmental change in a poverty sample (N = 190). Groups were defined whose adaptation was similar during the preschool years but consistently different earlier; then these 2 groups were compared in elementary school. In addition, a series of regression analyses was performed in which variance accounted for by near-in or contemporary predictors of adaptation in middle childhood was removed before adding earlier adaptation in subsequent steps. Children showing positive adaptation in the infant/toddler period showed greater rebound in the elementary school years, despite poor functioning in the preschool period. Regression analyses revealed some incremental power of early predictors with intermediate predictors removed. The results were interpreted as supporting Bowlby's thesis that adaptation is always a product of both developmental history and current circumstances. While this research cannot resolve such a complicated issue, it does point to the need for complex formulations to guide research on individual development. PMID:2245730

  19. Adaptive changes in renal mitochondrial redox status in diabetic nephropathy

    SciTech Connect

    Putt, David A.; Zhong, Qing; Lash, Lawrence H.

    2012-01-15

    Nephropathy is a serious and common complication of diabetes. In the streptozotocin (STZ)-treated rat model of diabetes, nephropathy does not typically develop until 30 to 45 days post-injection, although hyperglycemia occurs within 24 h. We tested the hypothesis that chronic hyperglycemia results in a modest degree of oxidative stress that is accompanied by compensatory changes in certain antioxidants and mitochondrial redox status. We propose that as kidneys progress to a state of diabetic nephropathy, further adaptations occur in mitochondrial redox status. Basic parameters of renal function in vivo and several parameters of mitochondrial function and glutathione (GSH) and redox status in isolated renal cortical mitochondria from STZ-treated and age-matched control rats were examined at 30 days and 90 days post-injection. While there was no effect of diabetes on blood urea nitrogen, measurement of other, more sensitive parameters, such as urinary albumin and protein, and histopathology showed significant and progressive worsening in diabetic rats. Thus, renal function is compromised even prior to the onset of frank nephropathy. Changes in mitochondrial respiration and enzyme activities indicated existence of a hypermetabolic state. Higher mitochondrial GSH content and rates of GSH transport into mitochondria in kidneys from diabetic rats were only partially due to changes in expression of mitochondrial GSH carriers and were mostly due to higher substrate supply. Although there are few clear indicators of oxidative stress, there are several redox changes that occur early and change further as nephropathy progresses, highlighting the complexity of the disease. Highlights: ►Adaptive changes in renal mitochondrial and redox status in diabetic rats. ►Modest renal dysfunction even prior to onset of nephropathy. ►Elevated concentrations of mitochondrial GSH in diabetic kidneys. ►Change in GSH due partly to increased protein expression of transporter.

  20. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  1. Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Abid, Muhammad; Schilling, Janpeter; Scheffran, Jürgen; Zulfiqar, Farhad

    2016-03-15

    Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory

  2. [Impacts of climate change on infectious diseases].

    PubMed

    Kołodyński, Jan; Malinowska, Anna

    2002-01-01

    Climate warming may have significant impacts on human health, including changes in the distribution and seasonality of vector-borne diseases. We discuss the consequences of climate change on infectious diseases. Effects of transmission of the imported tropical diseases in Europe are discussed. PMID:16883701

  3. Development, Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R. C.; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P. R.

    2009-05-01

    India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

  4. Development, malaria and adaptation to climate change: a case study from India.

    PubMed

    Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R C; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P R

    2009-05-01

    India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change. PMID:19127377

  5. Integrated Climate Change Information for Resilient Adaptation Planning

    EPA Science Inventory

    Awareness is growing that some air, water, and ecosystem impacts from climate change are inevitable due to the long residence times of key greenhouse gases (GHGs), including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), which are in...

  6. Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

    PubMed

    Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

    2012-01-01

    In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation. PMID:23300805

  7. Global and Local Concerns: What Attitudes and Beliefs Motivate Farmers to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change?

    PubMed Central

    Haden, Van R.; Niles, Meredith T.; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E.

    2012-01-01

    In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation. PMID:23300805

  8. Land Use and Management Change in the U.S. with Adaptation and Mitigation under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mu, J. E.; McCarl, B.

    2011-12-01

    in the absence of GHG prices, but when those prices are introduced emissions are reduced by 6 millions tones CO2 equivalent. Similarly, under climate change, GHG prices stimulate a gain in carbon sequestration in the agricultural and forestry sectors. 4. Forest sector welfare and crop producer surplus is reduced under the adaption policy by a small amount, that is -0.02 and 0.14-0.2 billion dollars respectively. However, forest welfare, agricultural welfare, crop producer surplus and livestock producer surplus all increased, by 0.62, 0.67, 0.84 and 1.48 billion dollars, respectively when GHG prices are introduced. References Adams DM, Alig RJ, McCarl BA et al., 2005. FASOMGHG conceptual structure, and specification: documentation. Texas A&M University, (http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/ 1212FASOMGHG_doc.pdf) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK Mendelsohn R, Dinar A. 2009. Land Use and Climate Change Interactions. Annual Review of Resource Economics. 1: 309-332.

  9. The impact of misregistration on change detection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Townshend, John R. G.; Justice, Christopher O.; Gurney, Charlotte; Mcmanus, James

    1992-01-01

    The impact of images misregistration on the detection of changes in land cover was studied using spatially degraded Landsat MSS images. Emphasis is placed on simulated images of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at spatial resolutions of 250 and 500 m. It is pointed out that there is the need to achieve high values of registration accuracy. The evidence from simulations suggests that misregistrations can have a marked effect on the ability of remotely sensed data to detect changes in land cover. Even subpixel misregistrations can have a major impact, and the most marked proportional changes will tend to occur at the finest misregistrations.

  10. Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Ferrise, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    The uncertainty about climate change (CC) complicates impact adaptation and risk management evaluation at the regional level. Approaches for managing this uncertainty and for simulating and communicating climate change impacts and adaptation opportunities are required. Here we apply an ensemble of crop models for adapting rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain), constructing adaptation response surfaces (ARS). Our methodology has been adapted from Pirttioja et al. (2015). Impact response surfaces (IRS) are plotted surfaces showing the response of an impact variable (here crop yield Y) to changes in two explanatory variables (here precipitation P and temperature T). By analyzing adaptation variables such as changes in crop yield (ΔY) when an adaptation option is simulated, these can be interpreted as the adaptation response to potential changes of P and T, i.e. ARS. To build these ARS, we explore the sensitivity of an ensemble of wheat models to changes in T and P. Baseline (1981-2010) T and P were modified using a delta change approach with changes in the seasonal patterns. Three levels of CO2 (representing future conditions until 2050) and two actual soil profiles are considered. Crop models were calibrated with field data from Abeledo et al. (2008) and Cartelle et al. (2006). Most promising adaptation options to be analyzed by the ARS approach are identified in a pilot stage with the models DSSAT4.5 and SiriusQuality v.2, subsequently simulating the selected adaptation combinations by the whole ensemble of 11 crop models. The adaptation options identified from pilot stage were: a cultivar with no vernalisation requirements, shortening or extending a 10 % the crop cycle of the standard cultivar, sowing 15 days earlier and 30 days later than the standard date, supplementary irrigation with 40 mm at flowering and full irrigation. These options and those of the standard cultivar and management resulted in 54 combinations and 450.000 runs per crop model. Our

  11. Evaluating climate change impacts in snowmelt basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleick, Peter H.; Rango, Albert; Cooley, Keith

    The implications of global climate change for hydrology and water resources are likely to be complex, widespread, and significant for both natural ecosystems and society. Yet our understanding of these implications remains rudimentary despite considerable effort and research over the last decade. One of the most difficult hydrologic problems in this area is evaluating the impacts of climate change in hydrologic basins affected by snowfall and snowmelt, especially high-latitude and high-altitude watersheds. Many of these watersheds are the headwaters for major rivers and they often provide substantial amounts of water for human and ecosystem use. Evaluating the impacts of climate change in these basins will help us better understand how to improve the management and protection of our water resources systems. In April 1993, a roundtable workshop was held in Santa Fe, N. Mex., to discuss hydrologic models for evaluating the impacts of climate change in snowmelt basins.

  12. The impact of neglect on initial adaptation to school.

    PubMed

    Manly, Jody Todd; Lynch, Michael; Oshri, Assaf; Herzog, Margaret; Wortel, Sanne N

    2013-08-01

    This study examined the impact of child neglect during the first 4 years of life on adaptation to school during kindergarten and first grade in the context of neighborhood poverty (NP). Processes related to the development of school competencies were examined, including the mediational role of cognitive functioning and ego-resiliency (ER) in shaping children's school outcomes. A total of 170 low-income urban children were followed prospectively for 2 years (ages 4-6). Results indicated that neglected children had significantly lower scores on kindergarten classroom behavior and first-grade academic performance than nonneglected children. Children's cognitive performance at age 4, controlling for maternal intelligence quotient, mediated the relation between severity of neglect and children's behavior in kindergarten as well as their academic performance in first grade. Moreover, severity of neglect was related to children's ER at age 4. However, additional ecological adversity in the form of NP moderated the link between ER and classroom behavior, such that at lower levels of poverty, ER mediated the relation between severity of neglect and school adaptation. Conversely, when NP was extreme, the effects of ER were attenuated and ER ceased to predict behavioral performance in kindergarten. The implications of these findings for prevention and intervention are discussed. PMID:23843472

  13. The Impact of Neglect on Initial Adaptation to School

    PubMed Central

    Manly, Jody Todd; Lynch, Michael; Oshri, Assaf; Herzog, Margaret; Wortel, Sanne N.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the impact of child neglect during the first four years of life on adaptation to school during kindergarten and first grade in the context of neighborhood poverty. Processes related to the development of school competencies were examined, including the mediational role of cognitive functioning and ego-resiliency in shaping children’s school outcomes. 170 low-income urban children were followed prospectively for two years (ages four to six). Results indicated that neglected children had significantly lower scores on kindergarten classroom behavior and first grade academic performance than nonneglected children. Children’s cognitive performance at age four, controlling for maternal IQ, mediated the relation between severity of neglect and children’s behavior in kindergarten as well as their academic performance in first grade. Moreover, severity of neglect was related to children’s ego-resiliency at age four. However, additional ecological adversity in the form of neighborhood poverty moderated the link between ego-resiliency and classroom behavior such that at lower levels of poverty, ego-resiliency mediated the relation between severity of neglect and school adaptation. Conversely, when neighborhood poverty was extreme, the effects of ego-resiliency were attenuated and ego-resiliency ceased to predict behavioral performance in kindergarten. The implications of these findings for prevention and intervention are discussed. PMID:23843472

  14. Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Ferrise, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    The uncertainty about climate change (CC) complicates impact adaptation and risk management evaluation at the regional level. Approaches for managing this uncertainty and for simulating and communicating climate change impacts and adaptation opportunities are required. Here we apply an ensemble of crop models for adapting rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain), constructing adaptation response surfaces (ARS). Our methodology has been adapted from Pirttioja et al. (2015). Impact response surfaces (IRS) are plotted surfaces showing the response of an impact variable (here crop yield Y) to changes in two explanatory variables (here precipitation P and temperature T). By analyzing adaptation variables such as changes in crop yield (ΔY) when an adaptation option is simulated, these can be interpreted as the adaptation response to potential changes of P and T, i.e. ARS. To build these ARS, we explore the sensitivity of an ensemble of wheat models to changes in T and P. Baseline (1981-2010) T and P were modified using a delta change approach with changes in the seasonal patterns. Three levels of CO2 (representing future conditions until 2050) and two actual soil profiles are considered. Crop models were calibrated with field data from Abeledo et al. (2008) and Cartelle et al. (2006). Most promising adaptation options to be analyzed by the ARS approach are identified in a pilot stage with the models DSSAT4.5 and SiriusQuality v.2, subsequently simulating the selected adaptation combinations by the whole ensemble of 11 crop models. The adaptation options identified from pilot stage were: a cultivar with no vernalisation requirements, shortening or extending a 10 % the crop cycle of the standard cultivar, sowing 15 days earlier and 30 days later than the standard date, supplementary irrigation with 40 mm at flowering and full irrigation. These options and those of the standard cultivar and management resulted in 54 combinations and 450.000 runs per crop model. Our

  15. Regional Collaborations to Combat Climate Change: The Climate Science Centers as Strategies for Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morelli, T. L.; Palmer, R. N.

    2014-12-01

    The Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) is part of a federal network of eight Climate Science Centers created to provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change. The consortium approach taken by the CSCs allows the academic side of the Centers to gather expertise across departments, disciplines, and even institutions. This interdisciplinary approach is needed for successfully meeting regional needs for climate impact assessment, adaptive management, education, and stakeholder outreach. Partnership with the federal government facilitates interactions with the key on-the-ground stakeholders who are able to operationalize the results and conclusions of that research, monitor the progress of management actions, and provide feedback to refine future methodology and decisions as new information on climate impacts is discovered. For example, NE CSC researchers are analyzing the effect of climate change on the timing and volume of seasonal and annual streamflows and the concomitant effects on ecological and cultural resources; developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances which can enable adaptation of projected climate impacts; studying the effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of drought and stream temperature on brook trout habitats, spatial distribution and population persistence; and conducting assessments of northeastern regional climate projections and high-resolution downscaling. Project methods are being developed in collaboration with stakeholders and results are being shared broadly with federal, state, and other partners to implement and refine effective and adaptive management actions.

  16. Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation Planning for the Southeast US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgakakos, A. P.; Yao, H.; Zhang, F.

    2012-12-01

    A climate change assessment is carried out for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeast US following an integrated water resources assessment and planning framework. The assessment process begins with the development/selection of consistent climate, demographic, socio-economic, and land use/cover scenarios. Historical scenarios and responses are analyzed first to establish baseline conditions. Future climate scenarios are based on GCMs available through the IPCC. Statistical and/or dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs is applied to generate high resolution (12x12 km) atmospheric forcing, such as rainfall, temperature, and ET demand, over the ACF River Basin watersheds. Physically based watershed, aquifer, and estuary models (lumped and distributed) are used to quantify the hydrologic and water quality river basin response to alternative climate and land use/cover scenarios. Demand assessments are carried out for each water sector, for example, water supply for urban, agricultural, and industrial users; hydro-thermal facilities; navigation reaches; and environmental/ecological flow and lake level requirements, aiming to establish aspirational water use targets, performance metrics, and management/adaptation options. Response models for the interconnected river-reservoir-aquifer-estuary system are employed next to assess actual water use levels and other sector outputs under a specific set of hydrologic inputs, demand targets, and management/adaptation options. Adaptive optimization methods are used to generate system-wide management policies conditional on inflow forecasts. The generated information is used to inform stakeholder planning and decision processes aiming to develop consensus on adaptation measures, management strategies, and performance monitoring indicators. The assessment and planning process is driven by stakeholder input and is inherently iterative and sequential.

  17. Climate and Mortality in Vienna and Impact of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muthers, S.; Matzarakis, A.; Koch, E.

    2010-09-01

    For the period 1970-2007, the relationship between heat stress and mortality in Vienna was analyzed using a human biometeorological thermal index. Using the PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) at 14 CET mortality is significant below the baseline for days with PET < 29°C and significant above for hotter days. On days with extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41°C) an additional mortality of +13.0 % was found. The sensitivity to heat stress is significantly higher for women and for patients with cardiovascular diseases. To assess the impact of climate change on the heat-related mortality, we used the two regional climate models REMO and CLM and the emissions scenarios A1B and B1. The heat related mortality was assessed by one scenario without any long-term adaptation and one scenario including continuous long-term adaptation. In both scenarios, heat-related mortality could increase until 2071-2100. Till 2011-2040 no significant changes to the period of examination were found. Adaptation measures should focus on the extreme heat days (PET ≥ 41°C), were the mortality will increase even with long-term adaptation.

  18. An Adaptation Dilemma Caused by Impacts-Modeling Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J. W.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. H.; Deryng, D.; Doll, P. M.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B. M.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M. R.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.

    2013-12-01

    Ensuring future well-being for a growing population under either strong climate change or an aggressive mitigation strategy requires a subtle balance of potentially conflicting response measures. In the case of competing goals, uncertainty in impact estimates plays a central role when high confidence in achieving a primary objective (such as food security) directly implies an increased probability of uncertainty induced failure with regard to a competing target (such as climate protection). We use cross sectoral consistent multi-impact model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org) to illustrate this uncertainty dilemma: RCP projections from 7 global crop, 11 hydrological, and 7 biomes models are combined to analyze irrigation and land use changes as possible responses to climate change and increasing crop demand due to population growth and economic development. We show that - while a no-regrets option with regard to climate protection - additional irrigation alone is not expected to balance the demand increase by 2050. In contrast, a strong expansion of cultivated land closes the projected production-demand gap in some crop models. However, it comes at the expense of a loss of natural carbon sinks of order 50%. Given the large uncertainty of state of the art crop model projections even these strong land use changes would not bring us ';on the safe side' with respect to food supply. In a world where increasing carbon emissions continue to shrink the overall solution space, we demonstrate that current impacts-modeling uncertainty is a luxury we cannot afford. ISI-MIP is intended to provide cross sectoral consistent impact projections for model intercomparison and improvement as well as cross-sectoral integration. The results presented here were generated within the first Fast-Track phase of the project covering global impact projections. The second phase will also include regional projections. It is the aim

  19. Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raje, Deepashree; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2010-03-01

    Relatively few studies have addressed water management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change. The current work studies climate change impact on a multipurpose reservoir performance and derives adaptive policies for possible future scenarios. The method developed in this work is illustrated with a case study of Hirakud reservoir on the Mahanadi river in Orissa, India, which is a multipurpose reservoir serving flood control, irrigation and power generation. Climate change effects on annual hydropower generation and four performance indices (reliability with respect to three reservoir functions, viz. hydropower, irrigation and flood control, resiliency, vulnerability and deficit ratio with respect to hydropower) are studied. Outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) for three scenarios each are downscaled to monsoon streamflow in the Mahanadi river for two future time slices, 2045-65 and 2075-95. Increased irrigation demands, rule curves dictated by increased need for flood storage and downscaled projections of streamflow from the ensemble of GCMs and scenarios are used for projecting future hydrologic scenarios. It is seen that hydropower generation and reliability with respect to hydropower and irrigation are likely to show a decrease in future in most scenarios, whereas the deficit ratio and vulnerability are likely to increase as a result of climate change if the standard operating policy (SOP) using current rule curves for flood protection is employed. An optimal monthly operating policy is then derived using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as an adaptive policy for mitigating impacts of climate change on reservoir operation. The objective of this policy is to maximize reliabilities with respect to multiple reservoir functions of hydropower, irrigation and flood control. In variations to this adaptive policy, increasingly more weightage is given to the purpose of maximizing reliability with respect to

  20. Evidence needed to manage freshwater ecosystems in a changing climate: turning adaptation principles into practice.

    PubMed

    Wilby, R L; Orr, H; Watts, G; Battarbee, R W; Berry, P M; Chadd, R; Dugdale, S J; Dunbar, M J; Elliott, J A; Extence, C; Hannah, D M; Holmes, N; Johnson, A C; Knights, B; Milner, N J; Ormerod, S J; Solomon, D; Timlett, R; Whitehead, P J; Wood, P J

    2010-09-01

    It is widely accepted that climate change poses severe threats to freshwater ecosystems. Here we examine the scientific basis for adaptively managing vulnerable habitats and species. Our views are shaped by a literature survey of adaptation in practice, and by expert opinion. We assert that adaptation planning is constrained by uncertainty about evolving climatic and non-climatic pressures, by difficulties in predicting species- and ecosystem-level responses to these forces, and by the plasticity of management goals. This implies that adaptation measures will have greatest acceptance when they deliver multiple benefits, including, but not limited to, the amelioration of climate impacts. We suggest that many principles for biodiversity management under climate change are intuitively correct but hard to apply in practice. This view is tested using two commonly assumed doctrines: "increase shading of vulnerable reaches through tree planting" (to reduce water temperatures); and "set hands off flows" (to halt potentially harmful abstractions during low flow episodes). We show that the value of riparian trees for shading, water cooling and other functions is partially understood, but extension of this knowledge to water temperature management is so far lacking. Likewise, there is a long history of environmental flow assessment for allocating water to competing uses, but more research is needed into the effectiveness of ecological objectives based on target flows. We therefore advocate more multi-disciplinary field and model experimentation to test the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of adaptation measures applied at different scales. In particular, there is a need for a major collaborative programme to: examine natural adaptation to climatic variation in freshwater species; identify where existing environmental practice may be insufficient; review the fitness of monitoring networks to detect change; translate existing knowledge into guidance; and implement best practice

  1. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels; Molgaard, Mads; Andersen, Ole

    2016-04-01

    We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for 'translation' of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders -often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level research advances and projections for the future are updated.

  2. Adaptive forest management for drinking water protection under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeck, R.; Hochbichler, E.

    2012-04-01

    Drinking water resources drawn from forested catchment areas are prominent for providing water supply on our planet. Despite the fact that source waters stemming from forested watersheds have generally lower water quality problems than those stemming from agriculturally used watersheds, it has to be guaranteed that the forest stands meet high standards regarding their water protection functionality. For fulfilling these, forest management concepts have to be applied, which are adaptive regarding the specific forest site conditions and also regarding climate change scenarios. In the past century forest management in the alpine area of Austria was mainly based on the cultivation of Norway spruce, by the way neglecting specific forest site conditions, what caused in many cases highly vulnerable mono-species forest stands. The GIS based forest hydrotope model (FoHyM) provides a framework for forest management, which defines the most crucial parameters in a spatial explicit form. FoHyM stratifies the spacious drinking water protection catchments into forest hydrotopes, being operational units for forest management. The primary information layer of FoHyM is the potential natural forest community, which reflects the specific forest site conditions regarding geology, soil types, elevation above sea level, exposition and inclination adequately and hence defines the specific forest hydrotopes. For each forest hydrotope, the adequate tree species composition and forest stand structure for drinking water protection functionality was deduced, based on the plant-sociological information base provided by FoHyM. The most important overall purpose for the related elaboration of adaptive forest management concepts and measures was the improvement of forest stand stability, which can be seen as the crucial parameter for drinking water protection. Only stable forest stands can protect the fragile soil and humus layers and hence prevent erosion process which could endanger the water

  3. Potential Impacts of Climatic Change on European Breeding Birds

    PubMed Central

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Willis, Stephen G.; Green, Rhys E.

    2008-01-01

    Background Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions. Methodology/Principal Findings For six climate scenarios for 2070–99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258–882 km in a direction between 341° (NNW) and 45° (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72–89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31–53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50×50 km grid square would decrease by 6·8–23·2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change. Conclusions/Significance Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here. PMID:18197250

  4. Lethal aggression in Pan is better explained by adaptive strategies than human impacts.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Michael L; Boesch, Christophe; Fruth, Barbara; Furuichi, Takeshi; Gilby, Ian C; Hashimoto, Chie; Hobaiter, Catherine L; Hohmann, Gottfried; Itoh, Noriko; Koops, Kathelijne; Lloyd, Julia N; Matsuzawa, Tetsuro; Mitani, John C; Mjungu, Deus C; Morgan, David; Muller, Martin N; Mundry, Roger; Nakamura, Michio; Pruetz, Jill; Pusey, Anne E; Riedel, Julia; Sanz, Crickette; Schel, Anne M; Simmons, Nicole; Waller, Michel; Watts, David P; White, Frances; Wittig, Roman M; Zuberbühler, Klaus; Wrangham, Richard W

    2014-09-18

    Observations of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus) provide valuable comparative data for understanding the significance of conspecific killing. Two kinds of hypothesis have been proposed. Lethal violence is sometimes concluded to be the result of adaptive strategies, such that killers ultimately gain fitness benefits by increasing their access to resources such as food or mates. Alternatively, it could be a non-adaptive result of human impacts, such as habitat change or food provisioning. To discriminate between these hypotheses we compiled information from 18 chimpanzee communities and 4 bonobo communities studied over five decades. Our data include 152 killings (n = 58 observed, 41 inferred, and 53 suspected killings) by chimpanzees in 15 communities and one suspected killing by bonobos. We found that males were the most frequent attackers (92% of participants) and victims (73%); most killings (66%) involved intercommunity attacks; and attackers greatly outnumbered their victims (median 8:1 ratio). Variation in killing rates was unrelated to measures of human impacts. Our results are compatible with previously proposed adaptive explanations for killing by chimpanzees, whereas the human impact hypothesis is not supported. PMID:25230664

  5. Quantifying variety-specific heat resistance and the potential for adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Rife, Trevor W; Poland, Jesse A; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

    2016-08-01

    The impact of climate change on crop yields has become widely measured; however, the linkages for winter wheat are less studied due to dramatic weather changes during the long growing season that are difficult to model. Recent research suggests significant reductions under warming. A potential adaptation strategy involves the development of heat resistant varieties by breeders, combined with alternative variety selection by producers. However, the impact of heat on specific wheat varieties remains relatively unstudied due to limited data and the complex genetic basis of heat tolerance. Here, we provide a novel econometric approach that combines field-trial data with a genetic cluster mapping to group wheat varieties and estimate a separate extreme heat impact (temperatures over 34 °C) across 24 clusters spanning 197 varieties. We find a wide range of heterogeneous heat resistance and a trade-off between average yield and resistance. Results suggest that recently released varieties are less heat resistant than older varieties, a pattern that also holds for on-farm varieties. Currently released - but not yet adopted - varieties do not offer improved resistance relative to varieties currently grown on farm. Our findings suggest that warming impacts could be significantly reduced through advances in wheat breeding and/or adoption decisions by producers. However, current adaptation-through-adoption potential is limited under a 1 °C warming scenario as increased heat resistance cannot be achieved without a reduction in average yields. PMID:26577840

  6. Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

    PubMed

    Maxwell, Sean L; Venter, Oscar; Jones, Kendall R; Watson, James E M

    2015-10-01

    The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation. PMID:26555860

  7. Modeling irrigation-based climate change adaptation in agriculture: Model development and evaluation in Northeast China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okada, Masashi; Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakurai, Gen; Hanasaki, Naota; Sakai, Toru; Okamoto, Katsuo; Yokozawa, Masayuki

    2015-09-01

    Replacing a rainfed cropping system with an irrigated one is widely assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation. However, many agricultural impact studies have not necessarily accounted for the space-time variations in the water availability under changing climate and land use. Moreover, many hydrologic and agricultural assessments of climate change impacts are not fully integrated. To overcome this shortcoming, a tool that can simultaneously simulate the dynamic interactions between crop production and water resources in a watershed is essential. Here we propose the regional production and circulation coupled model (CROVER) by embedding the PRYSBI-2 (Process-based Regional Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference version 2) large-area crop model into the global water resources model (called H08), and apply this model to the Songhua River watershed in Northeast China. The evaluation reveals that the model's performance in capturing the major characteristics of historical change in surface soil moisture, river discharge, actual crop evapotranspiration, and soybean yield relative to the reference data during the interval 1979-2010 is satisfactory accurate. The simulation experiments using the model demonstrated that subregional irrigation management, such as designating the area to which irrigation is primarily applied, has measurable influences on the regional crop production in a drought year. This finding suggests that reassessing climate change risk in agriculture using this type of modeling is crucial not to overestimate potential of irrigation-based adaptation.

  8. The Role of Culture in Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, J. O.; Sandholt, I.; Mertz, O.; Mbow, C.

    2008-12-01

    AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses) aims to improve our ability to forecast weather and climate in the West African region as well as understanding the impacts and adaptive responses of people and environment. While the complexity and unpredictability of the West African monsoon systems provide an intriguing challenge for science, it is potentially devastating for the many West African people affected by it. Across the region from Senegal to Niger people are trying to deal with and negotiate the consequences of this complexity and unpredictability. The objective of the AMMA Word Package 3.2 is to understand and map how they do this and to attempt to single out the importance of climate factors for local land use and livelihood strategies, decision-making and social relations. Researchers from Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria and Denmark developed a common questionnaire and interview guide that was implemented at 16 field sites in 5 countries. The sites were selected to represent the region and were located along north- south and east-west transects, and included both agricultural and pastoral locations. Moreover, in depth studies took place in several sites. In one of these, located in Northern Burkina Faso, there was a specific focus on how adaptation to climate change is related to ethnicity and the issue of values and culture in adaptation and vulnerability to climate change was raised. Strategies of two ethnic groups, Rimaiibe and Fulbe, were compared and it was shown that despite their presence in the same physical environment and their shared experience of climate change, the two groups have adapted very different strategies due to cultural values and historical relations. This has had profound impacts on the relations between the two ethnic groups. The former masters, Fulbe, have been much less successful with their strategies than their former slaves, Rimaiibe, and today the latter group is the dominant one within the village. It is

  9. The impact of changing technologies on instruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beichner, Robert

    2011-04-01

    Over the past decade technology has changed enormously. Google has made access to information nearly instantaneous while cell phones, which provide connections to both people and data, are now ubiquitous. This has led to large-scale changes in how students live their everyday lives and therefore impacts their expectations of higher education. Professors no longer need to serve as the main sources of content, but students need more guidance than ever to find the ``pearls of truth'' in the great sea of data now before them. This should impact how we do our jobs as instructors. This talk will discuss the impact of technology on students, how they learn, and how our roles as instructors will change.

  10. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Trainor, Sarah F.; Calef, Monika; Natcher, David; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; McGuire, Anthony; Huntington, Orville; Duffy, Paul A; Rupp, T. Scott; DeWilde, La'Ona; Kwart, Mary; Fresco, Nancy; Lovecraft, Amy Lauren

    2009-01-01

    This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.

  11. Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

    2015-12-01

    Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

  12. Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources.

    PubMed

    Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-09-15

    As the evidence for human induced climate change becomes clearer, so too does the realization that its effects will have impacts on numerous environmental and socio-economic systems. Mountains are recognized as very sensitive physical environments with populations whose histories and current social positions often strain their capacity to accommodate intense and rapid changes to their resource base. It is thus essential to assess the impacts of a changing climate, focusing on the quantity of water originating in mountain regions, particularly where snow and ice melt represent a large streamflow component as well as a local resource in terms of freshwater supply, hydropower generation, or irrigation. Increasing evidence of glacier retreat, permafrost degradation and reduced mountain snowpack has been observed in many regions, thereby suggesting that climate change may seriously affect streamflow regimes. These changes could in turn threaten the availability of water resources for many environmental and economic systems, and exacerbate a range of natural hazards that would compound these impacts. As a consequence, socio-economic structures of downstream living populations would be also impacted, calling for better preparedness and strategies to avoid conflicts of interest between water-dependent economic actors. This paper is thus an introduction to the Special Issue of this journal dedicated to the European Union Seventh Framework Program (EU-FP7) project ACQWA (Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of WAter), a major European network of scientists that was coordinated by the University of Geneva from 2008 to 2014. The goal of ACQWA has been to address a number of these issues and propose a range of solutions for adaptation to change and to help improve water governance in regions where quantity, seasonality, and perhaps quality of water may substantially change in coming decades. PMID:24360916

  13. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4 - 4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2.2). Conclusions Motivation for

  14. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlenker, Wolfram; Lobell, David B.

    2010-01-01

    There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are - 22, - 17, - 17, - 18, and - 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.

  15. Climate impacts of Australian land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrence, P. J.

    2004-05-01

    Australian land cover has been dramatically altered since European settlement primarily for agricultural utilization, with native vegetation widely replaced or modified for cropping and intensive animal production. While there have been numerous investigations into the regional and near surface climate impacts of Australian land cover change, these investigation have not included the climate impacts of larger-scale changes in atmospheric circulation and their associated feedbacks, or the impacts of longer-term soil moisture feedbacks. In this research the CSIRO General Circulation Model (GCM) was used to investigate the climate impacts of Australian land cover change, with larger-scale and longer-term feedbacks. To avoid the common problem of overstating the magnitude and spatial extent of changes in land surface conditions prescribed in land cover change experiments, the current Australian land surface properties were described from finer-scale, satellite derived land cover datasets, with land surface conditions extrapolating from remnant native vegetation to pre-clearing extents to recreate the pre-clearing land surface properties. Aggregation rules were applied to the fine-scale data to generate the land surface parameters of the GCM, ensuring the equivalent sub-grid heterogeneity and land surface biogeophysics were captured in both the current and pre-clearing land surface parameters. The differences in climate simulated in the pre-clearing and current experiments were analyzed for changes in Australian continental and regional climate to assess the modeled climate impacts of Australian land cover change. The changes in modeled climate were compared to observed changes in Australian precipitation over the last 50 and 100 years to assess whether modeled results could be detected in the historical record. The differences in climate simulation also were analyzed at the global scale to assess the impacts of local changes on larger scale circulation and climate at

  16. Biochar soil amendments as a tool for climate change adaptation in PNW agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, C. L.; Trippe, K. M.; Murphy, B. A.; Beovich, A. V.; Griffith, S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Loss of snow pack, changing hydrographs, and increased temperatures and irrigation demands as a result of climate change all threaten to create transformational drought for growers in the Pacific Northwest. One approach for adapting to drought is to improve moisture retention through soil management practices. Recent efforts at the FSCRU to develop on-farm power have produced a biochar from gasification of seed mill waste that may prove useful as a tool for drought adaption. Testing of this biochar revealed that it contains no toxic elements, making it suitable as a soil amendment, and additions of 20 tonnes ha-1 in dryland wheat system showed improved soil moisture and yield increases of 250%. Persistent but weaker impacts were observed in growing years 2 and 3 following the biochar amendments. Here we present results from a series of laboratory and field studies characterizing how grass seed screening biochar, which is produced from a regionally abundant feedstock, impacted soil hydraulic and thermal properties, soil chemistry, and plant growth. Because of the liming qualities of gasified biochar, the greatest growth benefits are likely to be realized in acidified soils, a growing problem in the PNW. Although the persistence of biochar impacts in soil is still unknown, our results indicate that gasified biochar, particularly when utilized as part of a system of on-farm power production, waste reduction, and nutrient recycling, can improve agricultural sustainability in the context of climate change.

  17. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in strategic environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Wende, Wolfgang; Bond, Alan; Bobylev, Nikolai; Stratmann, Lars

    2012-01-15

    Countries are implementing CO{sub 2} emission reduction targets in order to meet a globally agreed global warming limit of +2 Degree-Sign C. However, it was hypothesised that these national reduction targets are not translated to regional or state level planning, and are not considered through Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in order to meet emission reduction obligations falling on the transport, energy, housing, agriculture, and forestry sectors. SEAs of land use plans in the German state of Saxony, and the English region of the East of England were examined for their consideration of climate change impacts based on a set of criteria drawn from the literature. It was found that SEAs in both cases failed to consider climate change impacts at scales larger than the boundary of the spatial plan, and that CO{sub 2} reduction targets were not considered. This suggests a need for more clarity in the legal obligations for climate change consideration within the text of the SEA Directive, a requirement for monitoring of carbon emissions, a need for methodological guidance to devolve global climate change targets down to regional and local levels, and a need for guidance on properly implementing climate change protection in SEA. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) of 12 land use plans from Germany and England have been examined. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer SEA failed to consider climate change impacts at scales larger than the boundary of the land use plans. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer SEA should be an important instrument for climate protection. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Concrete steps for climate protection mainstreaming into SEA at the European Union and national levels have been suggested.

  18. Water governance and adaptation to climate change in the Indus River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Brown, Casey; Yu, Winston; Wescoat, James; Ringler, Claudia

    2014-11-01

    Conflicting approaches to water governance at multiple scales within large international river basins may have detrimental effects on the productivity of water resources and consequently the economic activities of the basin. In the Indus River Basin, local scale water productivity decisions are affected by international and intra-national scale water governance. Water availability and productivity is modulated by the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, and within Pakistan by the agreements governing water allocation between and within provinces. Much of the literature on governance at multiple scales in the Indus basin, and others, has employed qualitative methods of institutional analysis. This paper extends that approach with quantitative modeling of surface water allocation rules at multiple scales and the consequent economic impact on water use and productivity in the Indus River of Pakistan. The effects of the existing water allocation mechanisms on the ability to adapt to possible future climate conditions are examined. The study is conducted using the Indus Basin Model Revised - Multi-Year (IBMR-MY), a hydro-agro-economic model of the Indus River within Pakistan that simulates river and canal flows, groundwater pumping, water use and economic activities with a distributed, partial equilibrium model of the local scale agro-economic activities in the basin. Results suggest that without changes in response to changing conditions, the current governance mechanisms impede the provinces' ability to adapt to changing climate conditions, in ways that are significant, inflicting economic costs under both high and low flow conditions. However surface water allocation between the provinces does not appear to hinder adaptation. The greatest gains for economic water allocation are achieved at the sub-provincial level. The results imply that adaptive mechanisms for water allocation that allow response to changing climate conditions within provinces may be a

  19. Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tung, C.

    2002-12-01

    The impacts of climate change on streamflows and groundwater recharge were evaluated for Taiwan. Rainfall unevenly distributes in a year in Taiwan Island, which May through October is a wet season and contains 67% and 90% of annual rainfall for North and South Taiwan, respectively. Increasing of frequencies of both flood and drought has been observed in recent years, which is coincided with the previous climate change impact study in Taiwan based on climate change scenarios from Country Studies Program. Further analysis of the influence of climate change on streamflows and groundwater recharge were evaluated based on IPCC­Ýs SRES scenarios in this study for providing more information of hydrologic conditions under possible future climates. Impacts on streamflows were assessed in a watershed scale by using the streamflow component of the GWLF model, while impacts on groundwater discharge was evaluate in an island wide scale by calculating water balance. Climate change scenarios were derived from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), including CGCM2 by Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis, HADCM3 by Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, and CSIRO-Mk2 by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. These GCMs simulate climate based on SRES scenarios, which A2 and B2 scenarios were adopted in this study. The uncertainty of applying the predictions of global scale models and applying different GCMs are also concerned.

  20. Developing services for climate impact and adaptation baseline information and methodologies for the Andes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huggel, C.

    2012-04-01

    Impacts of climate change are observed and projected across a range of ecosystems and economic sectors, and mountain regions thereby rank among the hotspots of climate change. The Andes are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, not only due to fragile ecosystems but also due to the high vulnerability of the population. Natural resources such as water systems play a critical role and are observed and projected to be seriously affected. Adaptation to climate change impacts is therefore crucial to contain the negative effects on the population. Adaptation projects require information on the climate and affected socio-environmental systems. There is, however, generally a lack of methodological guidelines how to generate the necessary scientific information and how to communicate to implementing governmental and non-governmental institutions. This is particularly important in view of the international funds for adaptation such as the Green Climate Fund established and set into process at the UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties in Cancun 2010 and Durban 2011. To facilitate this process international and regional organizations (World Bank and Andean Community) and a consortium of research institutions have joined forces to develop and define comprehensive methodologies for baseline and climate change impact assessments for the Andes, with an application potential to other mountain regions (AndesPlus project). Considered are the climatological baseline of a region, and the assessment of trends based on ground meteorological stations, reanalysis data, and satellite information. A challenge is the scarcity of climate information in the Andes, and the complex climatology of the mountain terrain. A climate data platform has been developed for the southern Peruvian Andes and is a key element for climate data service and exchange. Water resources are among the key livelihood components for the Andean population, and local and national economy, in particular for

  1. Opportunities to Improve Urban and Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change Through Conservation of Green Space.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heller, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    The conservation of biotic communities in urbanized ecosystems is critical in light of heightened vulnerability due to climate change. Conservation of large open spaces around cities and smaller 'green' spaces within cities - such as forest patches and wetlands - has the capacity to diminish the vulnerability of human communities to higher temperatures, water shortages, increased flooding and other impacts of climate change. In addition, native species need to migrate to track their climate niches and the chances of successful migration will be increased if species have access to habitat throughout the landscape. Thus there is a strong rationale to do more conservation and restoration for both ecosystem and urban adaptation to climate change. Despite this alignment, planning efforts in the urban and ecosystem sectors are rarely done synergistically. As a result it is not clear how well plans will achieve biodiversity along with other ecosystem services goals. In this talk, I will discuss how urban adaptation planning can better align with ecosystem adaptation planning by drawing on research exploring sustainability plans and urban ecology in US cities, including work conducted in the San Francisco Bay Area by the Terrestrial Biodiversity and Climate Change Collaborative (TBC3). This research shows that there are considerable opportunities for linking agendas across sectors in ways that could yield multiple benefits. There are however both social and ecological challenges. In some cases difficult choices will need to be made about which values and services are most important, or where in the landscape different values should be prioritized.

  2. Adaptation to urbanization impacts on drainage in the city of Hohhot, China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Qianqian; Ren, Yi; Xu, Miaomiao; Han, Nini; Wang, Heping

    2016-01-01

    This study presents a quantitative assessment of urbanization effects on hydrological runoff and drainage network in the city of Hohhot, China. The evolution of urban spatial morphology for the historical years (1987-2010) and projected year (2020) is described by changes in geographic information system (GIS)-based land use maps and further represented in hydrological parameters in the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) simulation. The results show the levels of service of historical drainage were too low to have dominant impacts on flood risks, and hence a significant upward trend in catchment runoff response was observed over time. Comparisons with changes in system overloading indicate that the relative increase in flood risk is greatest at the early stage of urbanization with relatively low levels of development. The proposed adaptation measures based on a cost-effective optimal approach was found feasible to significantly improve the drainage performance and mitigate the increasing flooding impacts. PMID:26744948

  3. Adapt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bargatze, L. F.

    2015-12-01

    Active Data Archive Product Tracking (ADAPT) is a collection of software routines that permits one to generate XML metadata files to describe and register data products in support of the NASA Heliophysics Virtual Observatory VxO effort. ADAPT is also a philosophy. The ADAPT concept is to use any and all available metadata associated with scientific data to produce XML metadata descriptions in a consistent, uniform, and organized fashion to provide blanket access to the full complement of data stored on a targeted data server. In this poster, we present an application of ADAPT to describe all of the data products that are stored by using the Common Data File (CDF) format served out by the CDAWEB and SPDF data servers hosted at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These data servers are the primary repositories for NASA Heliophysics data. For this purpose, the ADAPT routines have been used to generate data resource descriptions by using an XML schema named Space Physics Archive, Search, and Extract (SPASE). SPASE is the designated standard for documenting Heliophysics data products, as adopted by the Heliophysics Data and Model Consortium. The set of SPASE XML resource descriptions produced by ADAPT includes high-level descriptions of numerical data products, display data products, or catalogs and also includes low-level "Granule" descriptions. A SPASE Granule is effectively a universal access metadata resource; a Granule associates an individual data file (e.g. a CDF file) with a "parent" high-level data resource description, assigns a resource identifier to the file, and lists the corresponding assess URL(s). The CDAWEB and SPDF file systems were queried to provide the input required by the ADAPT software to create an initial set of SPASE metadata resource descriptions. Then, the CDAWEB and SPDF data repositories were queried subsequently on a nightly basis and the CDF file lists were checked for any changes such as the occurrence of new, modified, or deleted

  4. Adapting California Water Management to Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanak, E.; Lund, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    California faces the prospect of significant water management challenges from climate change. The most certain changes are accelerated sea level rise and increased temperatures, which will reduce the Sierra Nevada snowpack and shift more runoff to winter months. These changes will likely cause major problems for flood control, for water supply reservoir operations, and for the maintenance of the present system of water exports through the fragile levee system of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Rising water temperatures also are likely to compromise habitat for some native aquatic species and pose challenges for reservoir operations, which must release cool water to support fish downstream. Although there is as yet little scientific consensus on the effects of climate change on overall precipitation levels, many expect precipitation variability to increase, with more extreme drought and flood events posing additional challenges to water managers. Fortunately, California also possesses numerous assets - including adaptation tools and institutional capabilities - which can limit vulnerability of the state’s residents to changing conditions. Water supply managers have already begun using underground storage, water transfers, conservation, recycling, and desalination to expand their capacity to meet changing demands, and these same tools present cost-effective options for responding to a wide range of climate change scenarios. Many staples of flood management - including reservoir operations, levees, bypasses, insurance, and land-use regulation - are appropriate for the challenges posed by increasing flood flows. Yet actions are also needed to improve response capacity in some areas. For water supply, a central issue is the management of the Delta, where new conveyance and habitat investments and regulations are needed to sustain water supply reliability and ecosystem conditions. For flood management, studies to anticipate required changes have only begun, and

  5. Adaptable Information Models in the Global Change Information System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duggan, B.; Buddenberg, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Wolfe, R.; Goldstein, J.

    2014-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program has sponsored the creation of the Global Change Information System () to provide a web based source of accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. The GCIS played multiple roles during the assembly and release of the Third National Climate Assessment. It provided human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various types of resources, which could then be manipulated by a distributed team with a wide range of specialties. The GCIS also served as a scalable backend for the web based version of the report. In this talk, we discuss the infrastructure decisions made during the design and deployment of the GCIS, as well as ongoing work to adapt to new types of information. Both a constrained relational database and an open ended triple store are used to ensure data integrity while maintaining fluidity. Using natural primary keys allows identifiers to propagate through both models. Changing identifiers are accomodated through fine grained auditing and explicit mappings to external lexicons. A practical RESTful API is used whose endpoints are also URIs in an ontology. Both the relational schema and the ontology are maleable, and stability is ensured through test driven development and continuous integration testing using modern open source techniques. Content is also validated through continuous testing techniques. A high degres of scalability is achieved through caching.

  6. The Future of Food: Regional Adaptation Strategies for Optimizing Grain Yields Under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholas, K. A.; Chhetri, N.; Girvetz, E. H.; McCarthy, H. R.; Twine, T. E.; Ummenhofer, C. C.

    2010-12-01

    Current projections of crop yields under climate change generally neglect to account for the potential for farmer adaptation to counteract environmental drivers of yield decreases, but such adaptation will be increasingly important for food security. We used a process-based crop model (Agro-IBIS) and a suite of climate projections based on multiple IPCC AR4 models under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios to project climate change impacts to yield of maize in Free State, South Africa, and Iowa, USA, and of wheat in Victoria, Australia, and Punjab, India. We found, for example in Iowa, that projected substantial increases in temperatures and slight decreases in precipitation result in a compressed growing period, with peak productivity occurring in mid-May rather than mid-July and yield decreasing by up to 40% below current levels by the end of the century. We then used this information to identify regionally-specific adaptation strategies by examining climate-limiting factors on the timing of harvest and quantity of yields in each location, and the current growing practices and resource availability. These adaptation strategies were developed with the intention of replicating current yields at current timing (for example, by selecting longer-ripening cultivars) and also to optimize yields under the new climate regime (for example, by double-cropping a maize/soy rotation in the same growing season). All in all, this research shows that promising adaptation options exist in each region, and highlight the need for sophisticated and regionally-sensitive adaptation strategies to sustain and increase food production in the 21st century.

  7. Forest adjacent households' voices on their perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change in Kilombero District, Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Balama, Chelestino; Augustino, Suzana; Eriksen, Siri; Makonda, Fortunatus B S

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a global and local challenge to both sustainable livelihoods and economic development. Tanzania as other countries of the world has been affected. Several studies have been conducted on farmers' perceptions and adaptation to climate change in the country, but little attention has been devoted to forest adjacent households in humid areas. This study assessed this gap through assessing forest adjacent households' voices on perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change in Kilombero District, Tanzania. Data collection involved key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household questionnaires. Results showed that the majority of households perceived changed climate in terms of temperature increase, unpredictable rainfall, frequent occurrence of floods, increased dry spells during rainy season coupled with decreased water sources and emergence of new pests and diseases. The perceived change in climate has impacted agriculture productivity as the main livelihood source. Different coping and adaptation strategies are employed. These are; crop diversification, changing cropping calendar, adopting modern farming technologies, and increasing reliance on non-timber forest products. These strategies were positively and significantly influenced by socio-economic factors including household size, residence period, land ownership and household income. The study concludes that, there are changes in climatic conditions; and to respond to these climatic changes, forest adjacent households have developed numerous coping and adaptation strategies, which were positively and significantly influenced by some socio-economic factors. The study calls for actual implementation of local climate change policies and strategies in order to enhance adaptive capacity at household level. PMID:27390633

  8. Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

    2012-04-01

    In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on

  9. Population dynamics of a northern-adapted mammal: disentangling the influence of predation and climate change.

    PubMed

    Pokallus, John W; Pauli, Jonathan N

    2015-09-01

    Community structure and interspecific interactions are particularly vulnerable to rapidly changing climatic regimes. Recent changes in both climate and vertebrate community assemblages have created a unique opportunity to examine the impacts of two dynamic forces on population regulation. We examined the effects of warming winter conditions and the reestablishment of a previously extirpated predator, the fisher (Martes pennanti), on regulatory mechanisms in a northern-adapted mammal, the porcupine (Erethizon dorsatum), along their southern range boundary. Using a long-term (17-year) capture-recapture data set, we (1) quantified the impacts of climate change and increased fisher predation on the survival of adult porcupines at their regional southern terminus, (2) assessed recruitment (via both adult fecundity and juvenile survival) of porcupines, and (3) modeled the relative importance of predation and winter conditions on the demography and population growth rate (λ). Severe winters and abundant predators interacted synergistically to reduce adult survivorship by as much as 44%, while expanding predator populations led to near reproductive failure among porcupines. Increasing predatory pressure, disruptions in this community module, and more frequent extreme winter weather events led to predicted extirpation within 50 years, whereas in the absence of predators, the population was viable. Our results provide a mechanistic understanding behind distributional shifts resulting from climate change and may be broadly relevant for predicting future distributional shifts in other northern-adapted mammalian species. PMID:26552263

  10. Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: adaptation options to increase resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newmark, R. L.; Bilello, D.; Macknick, J.; Hallett, K. C.; Anderson, R.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zamuda, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect the energy sector in multiple ways. Potential impacts include those directly affecting energy infrastructure and operations, such as sea level rise combined with storm surge; increased frequency or intensity extreme events such as hurricanes, floods or droughts; alterations in the hydrologic cycle; as well as those indirectly affecting energy demand and system efficiencies such as increased average temperatures and heat waves, particularly during peak summer demand. Although these changes and challenges occur on different timescales; adaptation options must consider both long-term (chronic) changes as well as short-term (acute) affects as well as the benefits derived from adaptation actions relative to cost, degree of resiliency gained, and the probability of exposure to a given risk. Different energy sector stakeholders tend to focus on response strategies that address specific spatial and temporal scales based on their perceived risks. Here we assess climate change impacts to the Nation's electric sector reliability and consider potential responses necessary to ensure energy security and sustainability. For specific examples such as options to reduce freshwater needs for electricity generation or demand response strategies for extreme heat events, we examine both the technical and economic implications of adopting those strategies, including the national/regional costs for their implementation.

  11. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases.

    PubMed

    Semenza, Jan C; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2012-04-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720

  12. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Semenza, Jan C.; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E.; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998–2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720

  13. Impact of Changing Societal Pressures Affecting Mothers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuma, June M.

    This review examines the literature on the effect of marriage and motherhood on women's psychological well-being. The paper discusses the impact of child rearing on life satisfaction and feelings of stress and considers the special problems of the working mother. Changing social attitudes surrounding a woman's role as wife and marital dissolution…

  14. Hydropower Energy in Lebanon: Adaptation for Changing Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaban, A.

    2012-12-01

    The mountainous terrain of Lebanon makes it a climatic barrier that receives clod air masses from the west and condensate them as rain and snow. Hence the average precipitation rate is about 950mm, creating tremendous water sources, but large portion of this water runs to the sea before utilizing it properly. The natural patterns of surface run-off on the mountainous terrain provide a chance to generate hydropower energy. Thus, Lebanon has 17 hydropower stations on 8 rivers. The productivity of these stations averages about 722 GWh, which provide an integral portion of the Lebanese electrical energy. The population growth and the failure of the existing electrical plants to supply adequate energy have been increased in the last few decades. Thus, there is proposition to construct 13 new hydropower plants. However, challenges for generating hydropower energy has been exacerbated; especially in the view of changing climatic conditions, including fluctuations in precipitation regime, which results an obvious decrease in the volume of run-off. This threatens constructed dams for energy generation. Hence, adapting new instrumentations became a necessity mechanism to be applied before proposing new hydropower station in Lebanon. This study will introduce the applicable adaptation tools to be followed in this respect.

  15. The adaptive changes in muscle coordination following lumbar spinal fusion.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ting-Yun; Pao, Jwo-Luen; Yang, Rong-Sen; Jang, Jyh-Shing Roger; Hsu, Wei-Li

    2015-04-01

    Limited back motion and damage of paraspinal muscles after spinal fusion surgery may lead to abnormal compensatory movements of the body. Whether neuromuscular control changes after surgery remains unclear. The purpose of the study was to identify the muscle activation patterns employed before and after lumbar spinal fusion. Nineteen patients having low back pain and undergoing minimally invasive lumbar spinal fusion were evaluated at 1 day before and 1 month after fusion surgery. Nineteen matched healthy participants were recruited as controls. Patients' pain severity and daily activity functioning were recorded. All participants were instructed to perform forward reaching, and the muscle activities were monitored using surface electromyography (EMG) with sensors placed on both sides of their trunk and lower limbs. The muscle activation patterns were identified using the principal component analysis (PCA). All patients had significant improvements in pain intensity and daily activity functioning after surgery, but exhibited an adaptive muscle activation pattern during forward reaching movement compared with the controls. Significant loading coefficients in the dominant movement pattern (reflected in the first principal component) were observed in back muscles for controls whereas in leg muscles for patients, both pre- and postoperatively. Despite substantial improvements in pain intensity and daily activity functioning after surgery, the patients exhibited decreased paraspinal muscle activities and adaptive muscle coordination patterns during forward reaching. They appeared to rely mainly on their leg muscles to compensate for their insufficient paraspinal muscle function. Early intervention focusing on training paraspinal muscles should be considered after spinal fusion surgery. PMID:25625813

  16. Changes in Ecosystem Services and related Livelihoods in the Mekong Delta: vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sebesvari, Z.; Renaud, F. G.

    2014-12-01

    The Mekong Delta (Vietnam) is highly vulnerable to the many impacts of global environmental change as well as to the accelerating anthropogenic changes in the catchment and in the delta itself. Today the delta is an agricultural landscape controlled by engineering structures such as channels, dykes, embankments, and sluice gates. These structures have been constructed gradually over the last 200 years mainly for irrigation and flood control in the upper part of the delta and to control saline intrusion in the coastal areas. Recent changes in the hydrology mainly driven by upstream hydropower development on the mainstream and the tributaries of the Mekong will likely have far reaching impacts on the delta´s social-ecological systems through changes in e.g. sedimentation processes, nutrient transport as well as the health of aquatic ecosystems. Further threats to the delta include sea level rise and an increase in seasonal rainfall variability leading to an increase in flood variability. These changes affect the lives of millions of low-income inhabitants who depend on the ecosystem services provided by the Mekong for their livelihoods and sustenance. Since the changes in ecosystem service provision are occurring relatively fast while the resource dependency of the delta population is very high, adaptation becomes a challenge. An assessment of livelihood dependencies on ecosystem services requires an understanding of ecosystem services affected by different drivers of change, as well as of the types of livelihoods likely to be jeopardized as a result of these changes. We will present main ecosystem services supporting specific livelihoods, discuss how they are threatened, and analyse the merits of potential solutions. Options based solely on grey infrastructure might be problematic on the long term while an integration of ecosystem based solution such as a (re)adaptation of agricultural production systems to floods in the upper delta might be a more sustainable

  17. Assessing bio-economic impacts and climate adaptation potential in Flanders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobin, A.

    2009-04-01

    According to Global Circulation Model predictions, Belgium is situated on a wedge between a wetter and drier climatic regime. Observed changes show an increase of 1.3°C during the past decade, a higher frequency of warm summer days and a 6% increase in rainfall with a pronounced rise in winter precipitation of about 25% as compared to the normal (1961-1990). Since agriculture is particularly sensitive to climate variability and occupies more than 61% of the land surface in Flanders, the rural landscape will be confronted with profound changes. A combination of climate scenarios, production models and economic evaluation was used to assess climate impacts on agricultural goods & services, adaptation costs due to production losses and adaptation options. Agro-ecosystems offer a wide range of productive, supporting, regulating and cultural services to society. Productive services relate to crop, animal and energy production, but will alter with climate change. Supporting services such as biodiversity, soil and water quality will be negatively affected by a higher climate variability, increasing erosion and sediment transport, enhancing the breakdown of soil organic matter, lowering soil quality and increasing runoff or leaching of agri-chemicals. The effect of a warmer climate on regulating services is an intensification of most nutrient cycles with increased emissions, which may be compensated for by carbon storage in faster and longer growing crops. The need for flooding areas may result in a net-reduction of the agricultural area. A higher probability of dry weather during summer time and a longer growing season may enlarge the attraction of recreating in rural areas. Knowledge on the interaction of agro-ecosystem services and climate change is required to formulate sustainable adaptation measures. Heat stress and water shortages lead to reduced crop growth, whereas increased CO2-concentrations and a prolonged growing season have a positive effect on crop yields

  18. Adaptive Behavior of Primary School Students with Visual Impairments: The Impact of Educational Settings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Metsiou, Katerina; Papadopoulos, Konstantinos; Agaliotis, Ioannis

    2011-01-01

    This study explored the adaptive behavior of primary school students with visual impairments, as well as the impact of educational setting on their adaptive behavior. Instrumentation included an informal questionnaire and the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales. Participants were 36 primary school students with visual impairments. The educational…

  19. In Brief: U.S. regional impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2007-12-01

    On 4 December, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change released a report that assesses climate vulnerabilities in four different areas of the United States. ``Regional impacts of climate change: Four case studies in the United States'' notes that midwestern cities are likely to experience more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves; that wildfires are likely to increase in the U.S. West; that sustaining fragile Gulf Coast wetlands ecosystems will be increasingly difficult due to climate change; and that the Chesapeake Bay may respond to climate change with more frequent and larger hypoxia events. The report indicates that adaptation measures need to be a critical component of any long-term U.S. climate strategy. ``The degree to which we can adapt to the consequences of climate change will be determined in large part by the policies and management practices we put in place today,'' said Pew Center president Eileen Claussen. For more information, visit the Web site: http://www.pewclimate.org.

  20. The Impact of Adapting Content for Students with Individual Differences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flores, Raymond; Ari, Fatih; Inan, Fethi A.; Arslan-Ari, Ismahan

    2012-01-01

    Combining adaptive hypermedia methods with strategies proposed by instructional theory and motivation models, an adaptable tutorial was designed and developed. The aim of this study was to assess whether the goals of an adaptable tutorial, which individualized instruction based on student motivation and prior knowledge, were being met (i.e.…

  1. Limbic Encephalitis: Potential Impact of Adaptive Autoimmune Inflammation on Neuronal Circuits of the Amygdala.

    PubMed

    Melzer, Nico; Budde, Thomas; Stork, Oliver; Meuth, Sven G

    2015-01-01

    Limbic encephalitis is characterized by adaptive autoimmune inflammation of the gray matter structures of the limbic system. It has recently been identified as a major cause of temporal lobe epilepsy accompanied by progressive declarative - mainly episodic - -memory disturbance as well as a variety of rather poorly defined emotional and behavioral changes. While autoimmune inflammation of the hippocampus is likely to be responsible for declarative memory disturbance, consequences of autoimmune inflammation of the amygdala are largely unknown. The amygdala is central for the generation of adequate homoeostatic behavioral responses to emotionally significant external stimuli following processing in a variety of parallel neuronal circuits. Here, we hypothesize that adaptive cellular and humoral autoimmunity may target and modulate distinct inhibitory or excitatory neuronal networks within the amygdala, and thereby strongly impact processing of emotional stimuli and corresponding behavioral responses. This may explain some of the rather poorly understood neuropsychiatric symptoms in limbic encephalitis. PMID:26284026

  2. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors

    PubMed Central

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M.T.E.

    2015-01-01

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247

  3. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

    PubMed

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

    2015-08-01

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247

  4. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nair, K. S.

    2009-09-01

    adaptation, mitigation and post-hazard recovery and resettlement measures. Providing basic necessities such as water, food and power, maintaining public health, implementing protective measures in the coastal zones and modifications in the urban infrastructure, especially in the coastal megacities become expensive. Impact of extremes on rails, roads and building are also becoming a major issue in the coastal zones and urban centres. Industrial sector is facing a threat from the falling reliable supply of water and power. However, procedure for the implementation of the strategies to mitigate the climate change impact and of the policy for the adaptation to climate change is slow. There are several hurdles for this, including various ecological, socio-economic, technical and political issues, alterations of the physical environment, inability of certain habitats and species to adapt to a new environment, abject poverty, lack of awareness, and the inefficient administrative mechanism. A comprehensive assessment of the shifts in regional climate and the impact of climate change on different facets of life in India, and of the current strategies and polices to face such challenges is made in this study. Suggestions for the improvement of the climate policy and adaptation strategy have been provided.

  5. Climate change and groundwater: India's opportunities for mitigation and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, Tushaar

    2009-07-01

    For millennia, India used surface storage and gravity flow to water crops. During the last 40 years, however, India has witnessed a decline in gravity-flow irrigation and the rise of a booming 'water-scavenging' irrigation economy through millions of small, private tubewells. For India, groundwater has become at once critical and threatened. Climate change will act as a force multiplier; it will enhance groundwater's criticality for drought-proofing agriculture and simultaneously multiply the threat to the resource. Groundwater pumping with electricity and diesel also accounts for an estimated 16-25 million mt of carbon emissions, 4-6% of India's total. From a climate change point of view, India's groundwater hotspots are western and peninsular India. These are critical for climate change mitigation as well as adaptation. To achieve both, India needs to make a transition from surface storage to 'managed aquifer storage' as the center pin of its water strategy with proactive demand- and supply-side management components. In doing this, India needs to learn intelligently from the experience of countries like Australia and the United States that have long experience in managed aquifer recharge.

  6. Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy: Partnering with Decision-Makers in Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, D.; Trainor, S.; Walsh, J.; Gerlach, C.

    2008-12-01

    The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP; www.uaf.edu/accap) is one of several, NOAA funded, Regional Integrated Science and Policy (RISA) programs nation-wide (http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/). Our mission is to assess the socio-economic and biophysical impacts of climate variability in Alaska, make this information available to local and regional decision-makers, and improve the ability of Alaskans to adapt to a changing climate. We partner with the University of Alaska?s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/), state and local government, state and federal agencies, industry, and non-profit organizations to communicate accurate and up-to-date climate science and assist in formulating adaptation and mitigation plans. ACCAP and SNAP scientists are members of the Governor?s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet Adaptation and Mitigation Advisory and Technical Working Groups (http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/), and apply their scientific expertise to provide down-scaled, state-wide maps of temperature and precipitation projections for these groups. An ACCAP scientist also serves as co-chair for the Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate Change Task Force, assisting this group as they work through the five-step model for climate change planning put forward by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (http://www.investfairbanks.com/Taskforces/climate.php). ACCAP scientists work closely with federal resource managers in on a range of projects including: partnering with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to analyze hydrologic changes associated with climate change and related ecological impacts and wildlife management and development issues on Alaska?s North Slope; partnering with members of the Alaska Interagency Wildland Fire Coordinating Group in statistical modeling to predict seasonal wildfire activity and coordinate fire suppression resources state-wide; and working with Alaska Native Elders and

  7. Building adaptive capacity to cope with increasing vulnerability due to climatic change in Africa A new approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Twomlow, Steve; Mugabe, Francis T.; Mwale, Moses; Delve, Robert; Nanja, Durton; Carberry, Peter; Howden, Mark

    The world community faces many risks from climate change, with most scenarios indicating higher temperatures and more erratic rainfall in Africa. Predictions for southern Africa suggest a general decrease in total seasonal rainfall, accompanied by more frequent in-season dry spells that will significantly impact crop and livestock production, and hence economic growth in the region. The hardest hit will be the rural poor in the drier areas, where crop failure due to drought is already common and chronic food emergencies afflict the region in most years. Lessons can be learnt on how the rural poor currently cope with the vagaries of climate and these can be used to help them adapt their current production systems to the future threats of further climate change. But this assumes the institutions that work towards the economic empowerment of the rural poor have the requisite skills to understand their current coping strategies and how adaptation can be facilitated. A new initiative led by Midlands State University and the Zambian Meteorological Office proposes that improving the ability of institutions that train the ‘Future Change Agents’, who will subsequently support smallholder communities in adapting their agricultural practices to current climate variability, is the first step in building adaptive capacity to cope with future climate change. The capacity of African scientists, regional organizations and decision-makers in dealing with the issues of climate change and adaptation will be enhanced on a continuing basis, and the impacts of their agricultural development programs improved.

  8. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority. PMID:23805950

  9. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    PubMed

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority. PMID:23805950

  10. Stable Epigenetic Effects Impact Adaptation in Allopolyploid Orchids (Dactylorhiza: Orchidaceae)

    PubMed Central

    Paun, Ovidiu; Bateman, Richard M.; Fay, Michael F.; Hedrén, Mikael; Civeyrel, Laure; Chase, Mark W.

    2010-01-01

    Epigenetic information includes heritable signals that modulate gene expression but are not encoded in the primary nucleotide sequence. We have studied natural epigenetic variation in three allotetraploid sibling orchid species (Dactylorhiza majalis s.str, D. traunsteineri s.l., and D. ebudensis) that differ radically in geography/ecology. The epigenetic variation released by genome doubling has been restructured in species-specific patterns that reflect their recent evolutionary history and have an impact on their ecology and evolution, hundreds of generations after their formation. Using two contrasting approaches that yielded largely congruent results, epigenome scans pinpointed epiloci under divergent selection that correlate with eco-environmental variables, mainly related to water availability and temperature. The stable epigenetic divergence in this group is largely responsible for persistent ecological differences, which then set the stage for species-specific genetic patterns to accumulate in response to further selection and/or drift. Our results strongly suggest a need to expand our current evolutionary framework to encompass a complementary epigenetic dimension when seeking to understand population processes that drive phenotypic evolution and adaptation. PMID:20551043

  11. Building Adaptive Capacity with the Delphi Method and Mediated Modeling for Water Quality and Climate Change Adaptation in Lake Champlain Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coleman, S.; Hurley, S.; Koliba, C.; Zia, A.; Exler, S.

    2014-12-01

    Eutrophication and nutrient pollution of surface waters occur within complex governance, social, hydrologic and biophysical basin contexts. The pervasive and perennial nutrient pollution in Lake Champlain Basin, despite decades of efforts, exemplifies problems found across the world's surface waters. Stakeholders with diverse values, interests, and forms of explicit and tacit knowledge determine water quality impacts through land use, agricultural and water resource decisions. Uncertainty, ambiguity and dynamic feedback further complicate the ability to promote the continual provision of water quality and ecosystem services. Adaptive management of water resources and land use requires mechanisms to allow for learning and integration of new information over time. The transdisciplinary Research on Adaptation to Climate Change (RACC) team is working to build regional adaptive capacity in Lake Champlain Basin while studying and integrating governance, land use, hydrological, and biophysical systems to evaluate implications for adaptive management. The RACC team has engaged stakeholders through mediated modeling workshops, online forums, surveys, focus groups and interviews. In March 2014, CSS2CC.org, an interactive online forum to source and identify adaptive interventions from a group of stakeholders across sectors was launched. The forum, based on the Delphi Method, brings forward the collective wisdom of stakeholders and experts to identify potential interventions and governance designs in response to scientific uncertainty and ambiguity surrounding the effectiveness of any strategy, climate change impacts, and the social and natural systems governing water quality and eutrophication. A Mediated Modeling Workshop followed the forum in May 2014, where participants refined and identified plausible interventions under different governance, policy and resource scenarios. Results from the online forum and workshop can identify emerging consensus across scales and sectors

  12. Modelling adaptation to climate change of Ecuadorian agriculture and associated water resources: uncertainties in coastal and highland cropping systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Bastidas, Wellington; Cóndor, Amparo; Villacís, Marcos; Calderón, Marco; Herrera, Mario; Zambrano, José Luis; Lizaso, Jon; Hernández, Carlos; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Capa-Morocho, Mirian

    2016-04-01

    Climate change threatens sustainability of farms and associated water resources in Ecuador. Although the last IPCC report (AR5) provides a general framework for adaptation, , impact assessment and especially adaptation analysis should be site-specific, taking into account both biophysical and social aspects. The objective of this study is to analyse the climate change impacts and to sustainable adaptations to optimize the crop yield. Furthermore is also aimed to weave agronomical and hydrometeorological aspects, to improve the modelling of the coastal ("costa") and highland ("sierra") cropping systems in Ecuador, from the agricultural production and water resources points of view. The final aim is to support decision makers, at national and local institutions, for technological implementation of structural adaptation strategies, and to support farmers for their autonomous adaptation actions to cope with the climate change impacts and that allow equal access to resources and appropriate technologies. . A diagnosis of the current situation in terms of data availability and reliability was previously done, and the main sources of uncertainty for agricultural projections have been identified: weather data, especially precipitation projections, soil data below the upper 30 cm, and equivalent experimental protocol for ecophysiological crop field measurements. For reducing these uncertainties, several methodologies are being discussed. This study was funded by PROMETEO program from Ecuador through SENESCYT (M. Ruiz-Ramos contract), and by the project COOP-XV-25 funded by Universidad Politécnica de Madrid.

  13. Accelerating Adaptation of Natural Resource Management to Address Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Cross, Molly S; McCarthy, Patrick D; Garfin, Gregg; Gori, David; Enquist, Carolyn AF

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants’ self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. Acelerando la Adaptación del Manejo de Recursos Naturales para

  14. Impacts of climate change and past land use change on the water resources in Pune, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, P. D.; Kumar, S.; Schneider, K.

    2012-12-01

    Global change affects local and regional water resources and is therefore of major concern in current hydrologic research. Especially in regions with scarce water resources, high climate sensitivity, and/or dynamic socio-economic development, research on developing suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies is needed. In this study, we used the well-established and widely-used hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to study the impact of climate change and past land use change on water resources. Our study aims at analyzing the impact of global change on the water balance components in the meso-scale Mula and Mutha Rivers catchment upstream of the city of Pune, India. To analyze climate change impacts regional climate model data based on IPCC emission scenario A1B was used by employing a downscaling method that rearranges historically measured data. The hydrologic model was run with the rearranged scenario weather data and model results were analyzed for the scenario period from 2020 to 2099. Past land use changes between 1989 and 2009 were identified with the help of three multi-temporal land use classifications, which were based on multi-spectral satellite data. Two model runs were performed and compared using the land use classifications of 1989 and 2009. Climate change leads to a slight increase of evapotranspiration. Particularly in the rainy season and in the first months of the dry season higher evapotranspiration can be observed. Towards the end of the scenario period low water storages in the major dams of the catchment at the beginning of the dry season indicate severe impacts on water availability. The impacts of land use changes balance out on the catchment scale and are hence more obvious at the sub-basin scale, where e.g., urbanization results in increased runoff and decreased evapotranspiration.

  15. Projected Climate Change Impacts on Pennsylvania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Najjar, R.; Shortle, J.; Abler, D.; Blumsack, S.; Crane, R.; Kaufman, Z.; McDill, M.; Ready, R.; Rydzik, M.; Wagener, T.; Wardrop, D.; Wilson, T.

    2009-05-01

    We present an assessment of the potential impacts of human-induced climate change on the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, U.S.A. We first assess a suite of 21 global climate models for the state, rating them based on their ability to simulate the climate of Pennsylvania on time scales ranging from submonthly to interannual. The multi-model mean is superior to any individual model. Median projections by late century are 2-4 degrees C warming and 5-10 percent precipitation increases (B1 and A2 scenarios), with larger precipitation increases in winter and spring. Impacts on the commonwealth's aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, forests, energy, outdoor recreation, tourism, and human health, are evaluated. We also examine barriers and opportunities for Pennsylvania created by climate change mitigation. This assessment was sponsored by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection which, pursuant to the Pennsylvania Climate Change Act, Act 70 of 2008, is required to develop a report on the potential scientific and economic impacts of climate change to Pennsylvania.

  16. An analysis of European riverine flood risk and adaptation measures under projected climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas; Holz, Friederike; Winsemius, Hessel; de Bruijn, Karind

    2015-04-01

    There is increasing need to assess costs and benefits of adaptation at scales beyond the river basin. In Europe, such estimates are required at the European scale in order to set priorities for action and financing, for instance in the context of the EU Adaptation Strategy. The goal of this work as part of the FP7 BASE project is to develop a flood impact model that can be applied at Pan-European scale and that is able to project changes in flood risk due to climate change and socio-economic developments, and costs of adaptation. For this research, we build upon the global flood hazard estimation method developed by Winsemius et al. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013), that produces flood inundation maps at different return period, for present day (EU WATCH) and future climate (IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5, for five climate models). These maps are used for the assessment of flood impacts. We developed and tested a model for assessing direct economic flood damages by using large scale land use maps. We characterise vulnerable land use functions, in particular residential, commercial, industrial, infrastructure and agriculture, using depth-damage relationships. Furthermore, we apply up to NUTS3 level information on Gross Domestic Product, which is used as a proxy for relative differences in maximum damage values between different areas. Next, we test two adaptation measures, by adjusting flood protection levels and adjusting damage functions. The results show the projected changes in flood risk in the future. For example, on NUTS2 level, flood risk increases in some regions up to 179% (between the baseline scenario 1960-1999 and time slice 2010-2049). On country level there are increases up to 60% for selected climate models. The conference presentation will show the most relevant improvements in damage modelling on the continental scale, and results of the analysis of adaptation measures. The results will be critically discussed under the aspect of major

  17. A Meta-Analysis of Urban Climate Change Adaptation Planning in the U.S.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in developing frameworks for adaptation planning and identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empir...

  18. Precipitation Variability and Projection Uncertainties in Climate Change Adaptation: Go Local!

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentations agenda includes: Regional and local climate change effects: The relevance; Variability and uncertainty in decision- making and adaptation approaches; Adaptation attributes for the U.S. Southwest: Water availability, storage capacity, and related; EPA research...

  19. Anticipatory flood risk assessment under climate change scenarios: from assessment to adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhold, C.; Hogl, K.; Seher, W.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Scherhaufer, P.; Nordbeck, R.; Löschner, L.

    2012-04-01

    According to the Centre for Research on Epidemiology Disasters, floods are the type of natural disasters that affected the highest number of people from 1900 to 2008 worldwide. Specifically, Austria suffered from heavy floods in recent years, affecting thousands of people and causing billions of Euro in economic losses. Although there is yet no proof that these accumulated extreme events are a direct consequence of climate change, they may indicate what can be expected. Currently, comprehensive climate modelling research is being conducted for Austria that may lay the foundation for enhanced climate impact assessments (regional climate modelling under consideration of different global models and varying scenarios). However, the models so far have neither special focus on Austria nor a distinct definition of boundary conditions for Austria. Therefore, results of climate models are considered as too unreliable and inconsistent for predicting changes in flood characteristics, especially at a regional to local scale. As a consequence, adaptation strategies have to be derived from integrated impact analyses that are based on dissecting mechanisms and drivers for changes and not only on the dimension of climate change. This paper discusses a dynamic flood risk assessment methodology considering potential spatial and temporal developments of hazard and vulnerability under climate change scenarios. The approach integrates quantifiable results from assessments of hazard, exposure and sensitivity and the qualitative, interview based, assessment of adaptive capacities. Flood risk assessment will be conducted for the current state in Austria and enhanced by potential (1) flood scenarios increased by a climate change allowance (2) demographic development scenarios (3) land-use change scenarios and (4) adaptation policy assessment to identify regions especially prone to flooding. Comparing the current state with various anticipatory hazard and vulnerability scenarios provides

  20. Climate change and health in the urban environment: adaptation opportunities in Australian cities.

    PubMed

    Bambrick, Hilary Jane; Capon, Anthony Guy; Barnett, Guy Bruce; Beaty, R Matthew; Burton, Anthony John

    2011-03-01

    Urban populations are growing rapidly throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Cities are vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change because of their concentration of people and infrastructure, the physical (geographical, material, and structural) attributes of the built environment, and the ecological interdependence with the urban ecosystem. Australia is one of the most highly urbanized countries in the region and its already variable climate is set to become hotter and drier with climate change. Climate change in Australia is expected to increase morbidity and mortality from thermal stress, bacterial gastroenteritis, vector-borne disease, air pollution, flooding, and bushfires. The cost and availability of fresh water, food, and energy will also likely be affected. The more vulnerable urban populations, including the elderly, socioeconomically disadvantaged groups, and those with underlying chronic disease, will be most affected. Adaptation strategies need to address this underlying burden of disease and inequity as well as implement broad structural changes to building codes and urban design, and infrastructure capacity. In doing so, cities provide opportunities to realize "co-benefits" for health (eg, from increased levels of physical activity and improved air quality). With evidence that climate change is underway, the need for cities to be a focus in the development of climate adaptation strategies is becoming more urgent. PMID:21242151

  1. From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Boggs, Carol L; Stamberger, Jeannie A; Deutsch, Curtis A; Ehrlich, Paul R

    2014-10-22

    Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent. PMID:25165769

  2. From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts

    PubMed Central

    Bonebrake, Timothy C.; Boggs, Carol L.; Stamberger, Jeannie A.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Ehrlich, Paul R.

    2014-01-01

    Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent. PMID:25165769

  3. Designing for Change: Interoperability in a scaling and adapting environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yarmey, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Earth Science cyberinfrastructure landscape is constantly changing. Technologies advance and technical implementations are refined or replaced. Data types, volumes, packaging, and use cases evolve. Scientific requirements emerge and mature. Standards shift while systems scale and adapt. In this complex and dynamic environment, interoperability remains a critical component of successful cyberinfrastructure. Through the resource- and priority-driven iterations on systems, interfaces, and content, questions fundamental to stable and useful Earth Science cyberinfrastructure arise. For instance, how are sociotechnical changes planned, tracked, and communicated? How should operational stability balance against 'new and shiny'? How can ongoing maintenance and mitigation of technical debt be managed in an often short-term resource environment? The Arctic Data Explorer is a metadata brokering application developed to enable discovery of international, interdisciplinary Arctic data across distributed repositories. Completely dependent on interoperable third party systems, the Arctic Data Explorer publicly launched in 2013 with an original 3000+ data records from four Arctic repositories. Since then the search has scaled to 25,000+ data records from thirteen repositories at the time of writing. In the final months of original project funding, priorities shift to lean operations with a strategic eye on the future. Here we present lessons learned from four years of Arctic Data Explorer design, development, communication, and maintenance work along with remaining questions and potential directions.

  4. Adapting the transtheoretical model of change to the bereavement process.

    PubMed

    Calderwood, Kimberly A

    2011-04-01

    Theorists currently believe that bereaved people undergo some transformation of self rather than returning to their original state. To advance our understanding of this process, this article presents an adaptation of Prochaska and DiClemente's transtheoretical model of change as it could be applied to the journey that bereaved individuals experience. This theory is unique because it addresses attitudes, intentions, and behavioral processes at each stage; it allows for a focus on a broader range of emotions than just anger and depression; it allows for the recognition of two periods of regression during the bereavement process; and it adds a maintenance stage, which other theories lack. This theory can benefit bereaved individuals directly and through the increased awareness among counselors, family, friends, employers, and society at large. This theory may also be used as a tool for bereavement programs to consider whether they are meeting clients' needs throughout the transformation change bereavement process rather than only focusing on the initial stages characterized by intense emotion. PMID:21553574

  5. Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumaila, U. Rashid; Cheung, William W. L.; Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Pauly, Daniel; Herrick, Samuel

    2011-12-01

    Global marine fisheries are underperforming economically because of overfishing, pollution and habitat degradation. Added to these threats is the looming challenge of climate change. Observations, experiments and simulation models show that climate change would result in changes in primary productivity, shifts in distribution and changes in the potential yield of exploited marine species, resulting in impacts on the economics of fisheries worldwide. Despite the gaps in understanding climate change effects on fisheries, there is sufficient scientific information that highlights the need to implement climate change mitigation and adaptation policies to minimize impacts on fisheries.

  6. State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

  7. Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for impact assessments: an example from the water sector.

    PubMed

    New, Mark; Lopez, Ana; Dessai, Suraje; Wilby, Rob

    2007-08-15

    Climate change impacts and adaptation assessments have traditionally adopted a scenario-based approach, which precludes an assessment of the relative risks of particular adaptation options. Probabilistic impact assessments, especially if based on a thorough analysis of the uncertainty in an impact forecast system, enable adoption of a risk-based assessment framework. However, probabilistic impacts information is conditional and will change over time. We explore the implications of a probabilistic end-to-end risk-based framework for climate impacts assessment, using the example of water resources in the Thames River, UK. We show that a probabilistic approach provides more informative results that enable the potential risk of impacts to be quantified, but that details of the risks are dependent on the approach used in the analysis. PMID:17569650

  8. Impacts of climate change on avian populations.

    PubMed

    Jenouvrier, Stephanie

    2013-0