Recent hip fracture trends in Sweden and Denmark with age-period-cohort effects.

PubMed

Rosengren, B E; Björk, J; Cooper, C; Abrahamsen, B

2017-01-01

This study used nationwide hip fracture data from Denmark and Sweden during 1987-2010 to examine effects of (birth) cohort and period. We found that time trends, cohort, and period effects were different in the two countries. Results also indicated that hip fracture rates may increase in the not so far future. The reasons for the downturn in hip fracture rates remain largely unclear but circumstances earlier in life seem important. We ascertained hip fractures in the populations ≥50 years in Denmark and Sweden in national discharge registers. Country- and sex-specific age-period-cohort (APC) effects during 1987-2010 were evaluated by log-likelihood estimates in Poisson regression models presented as incidence rate ratios (IRR). There were 399,596 hip fractures in SE and 248,773 in DK. Age-standardized hip fracture rate was stable in SE men but decreased in SE women and in DK. Combined period + cohort effects were generally stronger in SE than DK and in women than men. IRR per period ranged from 1.05 to 1.30 in SE and 0.95 to 1.21 in DK. IRR per birth cohort ranged from 1.07 to 3.13 in SE and 0.77 to 1.67 in DK. Relative period effects decreased with successive period in SE and described a convex curve in DK. Relative cohort effects increased with successive birth cohort in both countries but with lower risks for DK women and men and SE women born around the 1930s (age 75-86 years today and responsible for most hip fractures) partly explaining the recent downturn. Men and women born thereafter however seem to have a higher hip fracture risk, and we expect a reversal of the present decline in rates, with increasing hip fracture rates in both Denmark and Sweden during the upcoming decade. Time trends, cohort, and period effects were different in SE and DK. This may reflect differences in general health as evident in known differences in life expectancy, healthcare organization, and prevention such as use of anti-osteoporosis drugs. Analyses indicate that hip

Trends in U.S., Past-Year Marijuana Use from 1985–2009; An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Miech, Richard; Koester, Stephen

2014-01-01

Background We present a formal age-period-cohort analysis to examine if the recent increase in past-year marijuana use among the young is specific to the younger generation or if, instead, it is part of a general increase present across cohorts of all ages. This is the first age-period-cohort analysis of past-year marijuana use that includes adult trends from 2001–09. Methods Data come from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a series of annual, nationally-representative, cross-sectional surveys of the U.S. civilian, non-institutionalized population. The analysis focuses on the 25 year time span from 1985–2009 and uses the recently developed ‘intrinsic estimator’ algorithm to estimate independent effects of age, period, and cohort. Results The recent increase in past-year marijuana use is not unique to the youngest birth cohorts. An independent, positive influence of cohort membership on past-year marijuana use, net of historical period and age effects, is smaller for today’s youngest cohorts than it was for the cohorts that came immediately before, and, in fact, is at its lowest level in three decades. The recent increase in marijuana use among the young is more consistent with a historical period effect that has acted across all cohorts. Period and cohort trends differ substantially for Hispanics. Conclusions The major forces that drive trends in past-year marijuana use are moving away from cohort-specific factors and toward broad-based influences that affect cohorts of all ages. Strategic public health and policy efforts aimed at countering the recent increase in past-year marijuana use should do the same. PMID:22361212

Evolution of obesity prevalence in France: an age-period-cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Diouf, Ibrahima; Charles, Marie Aline; Ducimetière, Pierre; Basdevant, Arnaud; Eschwege, Evelyne; Heude, Barbara

2010-01-01

Background A rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity has been reported in France since 1990. We investigated the impact of birth cohort on the changes in obesity prevalence after taking into account age and survey period. Methods We analyzed data from four national surveys in 1997, 2000, 2003 and 2006. For each survey, self-reported data on weight and height were recorded on mailed questionnaires sent to a sample of 20 000 households, representative of the French population. Obesity was defined according to WHO criteria, BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2. We modeled the prevalence of obesity using logistic regression with age, cohort and period as explanatory variables. As these variables are linearly dependent, only nonlinear effects can be estimated uniquely and interpreted, after including specific chosen constraints in the models. Results There was a progressive increase in the prevalence of obesity between 1997 and 2006, attributable either to a period or to a cohort effect. There was a substantial departure from a linear trend for the cohort effect only, which appeared to be stronger in women: there was an acceleration in the prevalence of obesity with birth cohort for individuals born after the mid-1960s, in both sexes. Conclusions Our results are consistent with previous studies in other countries. Compared with older generations, men and women born in the late 1960s may have been subject to early exposures that increased their lifelong susceptibility to obesity. PMID:20375843

Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Mortality From Ischemic Heart Disease in Southern Spain.

PubMed

Ocaña-Riola, Ricardo; Mayoral-Cortés, José María; Fernández-Ajuria, Alberto; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Carmen; Martín-Olmedo, Piedad; Blanco-Reina, Encarnación

2015-05-01

Ischemic heart disease is the leading cause of death and one of the top 4 causes of burden of disease worldwide. The aim of this study was to evaluate age-period-cohort effects on mortality from ischemic heart disease in Andalusia (southern Spain) and in each of its 8 provinces during the period 1981-2008. A population-based ecological study was conducted. In all, 145 539 deaths from ischemic heart disease were analyzed for individuals aged between 30 and 84 years who died in Andalusia in the study period. A nonlinear regression model was estimated for each sex and geographical area using spline functions. There was an upward trend in male and female mortality rate by age from the age of 30 years. The risk of death for men and women showed a downward trend for cohorts born after 1920, decreasing after 1960 with a steep slope among men. Analysis of the period effect showed that male and female death risk first remained steady from 1981 to 1990 and then increased between 1990 and 2000, only to decrease again until 2008. There were similar age-period-cohort effects on mortality in all the provinces of Andalusia and for Andalusia as a whole. If the observed cohort and period effects persist, male and female mortality from ischemic heart disease will continue to decline. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Mortality of breast cancer in Taiwan, 1971-2010: temporal changes and an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Ho, M-L; Hsiao, Y-H; Su, S-Y; Chou, M-C; Liaw, Y-P

2015-01-01

The current paper describes the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer mortality in Taiwan. Female breast cancer mortality data were collected from the Taiwan death registries for 1971-2010. The annual percentage changes, age- standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and age-period-cohort model were calculated. The mortality rates increased with advancing age groups when fixing the period. The percentage change in the breast cancer mortality rate increased from 54.79% at aged 20-44 years, to 149.78% in those aged 45-64 years (between 1971-75 and 2006-10). The mortality rates in the 45-64 age group increased steadily from 1971 to 1975 and 2006-10. The 1951 birth cohorts (actual birth cohort; 1947-55) showed peak mortalities in both the 50-54 and 45-49 age groups. We found that the 1951 birth cohorts had the greatest mortality risk from breast cancer. This might be attributed to the DDT that was used in large amounts to prevent deaths from malaria in Taiwan. However, future researches require DDT data to evaluate the association between breast cancer and DDT use.

Materialism across the life span: An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Jaspers, Esther D T; Pieters, Rik G M

2016-09-01

This research examined the development of materialism across the life span. Two initial studies revealed that (a) lay beliefs were that materialism declines with age and (b) previous research findings also implied a modest, negative relationship between age and materialism. Yet, previous research has considered age only as a linear control variable, thereby precluding the possibility of more intricate relationships between age and materialism. Moreover, prior studies have relied on cross-sectional data and thus confound age and cohort effects. To improve on this, the main study used longitudinal data from 8 waves spanning 9 years of over 4,200 individuals (16 to 90 years) to examine age effects on materialism while controlling for cohort and period effects. Using a multivariate multilevel latent growth model, it found that materialism followed a curvilinear trajectory across the life span, with the lowest levels at middle age and higher levels before and after that. Thus, in contrast to lay beliefs, materialism increased in older age. Moreover, age effects on materialism differed markedly between 3 core themes of materialism: acquisition centrality, possession-defined success, and acquisition as the pursuit of happiness. In particular, acquisition centrality and possession-defined success were higher at younger and older age. Independent of these age effects, older birth cohorts were oriented more toward possession-defined success, whereas younger birth cohorts were oriented more toward acquisition centrality. The economic downturn since 2008 led to a decrease in acquisition as the pursuit of happiness and in desires for personal growth, but to an increase in desires for achievement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Trends in mouth cancer incidence in Mumbai, India (1995-2009): An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Shridhar, Krithiga; Rajaraman, Preetha; Koyande, Shravani; Parikh, Purvish M; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Dhillon, Preet K; Dikshit, Rajesh P

2016-06-01

Despite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes. We evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. Over the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), p<0.0001) while rates among women decreased (EAPC=-0.01% (95% CI:-0.02 to -0.002), p=0.03). APC analysis revealed significant non-linear positive period and cohort effects in men, with higher effects among younger men (25-49 years). Non-significant increasing trends were observed in younger women (25-49 years). APC analyses from the Mumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Variance Function Regression in Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Models: Applications to the Study of Self-Reported Health

PubMed Central

Zheng, Hui; Yang, Yang; Land, Kenneth C.

2012-01-01

Two long-standing research problems of interest to sociologists are sources of variations in social inequalities and differential contributions of the temporal dimensions of age, time period, and cohort to variations in social phenomena. Recently, scholars have introduced a model called Variance Function Regression for the study of the former problem, and a model called Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort regression has been developed for the study of the latter. This article presents an integration of these two models as a means to study the evolution of social inequalities along distinct temporal dimensions. We apply the integrated model to survey data on subjective health status. We find substantial age, period, and cohort effects, as well as gender differences, not only for the conditional mean of self-rated health (i.e., between-group disparities), but also for the variance in this mean (i.e., within-group disparities)—and it is detection of age, period, and cohort variations in the latter disparities that application of the integrated model permits. Net of effects of age and individual-level covariates, in recent decades, cohort differences in conditional means of self-rated health have been less important than period differences that cut across all cohorts. By contrast, cohort differences of variances in these conditional means have dominated period differences. In particular, post-baby boom birth cohorts show significant and increasing levels of within-group disparities. These findings illustrate how the integrated model provides a powerful framework through which to identify and study the evolution of variations in social inequalities across age, period, and cohort temporal dimensions. Accordingly, this model should be broadly applicable to the study of social inequality in many different substantive contexts. PMID:22904570

Educational differences in alcohol consumption and heavy drinking: An age-period-cohort perspective.

PubMed

Lui, Camillia K; Kerr, William C; Mulia, Nina; Ye, Yu

2018-05-01

Low socioeconomic status (SES) has been associated with lower alcohol consumption, but also with heavier drinking. To explain this contradictory relationship, we examined SES differences in drinking patterns from an age-period-cohort (APC) perspective. Data are from seven waves of the U.S. National Alcohol Surveys from 1979 to 2010. As a proxy for SES, educational attainment was used. Past-year alcohol volume was calculated from frequency (never-to-every day) and usual quantity (1-2, 3-4, or 5-6 drinks). Past-year frequency of heavy episodic drinking was labelled as total days of 5+ drinks. Gender-stratified APC fixed-effects models were conducted controlling for demographics and adjusting for survey design and weights. Significant APC effects by education were found, but the direction varied by alcohol measure. Education and total volume were positively associated across APC. Cross-over effects for age occurred with a positive education-heavy drinking relationship in young adulthood and negative relationship in mid-adulthood. Cohort-by-education effects showed greater heavy drinking among less educated women in 1956-60 cohort and more educated men and women in younger cohorts (post-1976). Higher SES is consistently associated with total volume across age, period, and cohort, but less consistently with heavy drinking. While there are currently significant intervention efforts to reduce heavy drinking in young adulthood, our study suggests the need for age-specific strategies targeting lower-SES groups in mid-adulthood and cohort-specific strategies for lower-SES women in the baby boomer cohort and higher-SES men and women in younger birth cohorts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in ischemic heart disease mortality in Korea, 1985-2009: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Hye Ah; Park, Hyesook

2012-09-01

Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

Sex ratio in multiple sclerosis mortality over 65 years; an age-period-cohort analysis in Norway.

PubMed

Nakken, Ola; Lindstrøm, Jonas Christoffer; Holmøy, Trygve

2018-06-01

Increasing female: male ratio in multiple sclerosis (MS) has been assigned to cohort effects, with females in more recent birth cohorts possibly being more exposed or vulnerable to environmental risk factors than males. We collected MS mortality data in Norway from 1951 to 2015 from The Norwegian Cause of Death registry. Age-Period-Cohort analysis was conducted using log-linear Poisson models, including sex interaction terms. MS was registered as the underlying, contributing or direct cause in 6060 deaths. MS associated mortality remained stable with a slight preponderance among males until after 1980, and have since increased preferentially among females. Throughout the study period the mean annual increase was 1.25% for females and 0.3% for males (p < 0.0001). Age-period-cohort analysis revealed limited evidence of cohort effects for the gender differences; the best fitting model only included gender-age and gender-period interaction terms. The period effect evened out for males in the last three decades but increased for females, especially among the oldest age-groups. In conclusion, the increased female: male mortality ratio in MS associated mortality is driven mainly by increased mortality among females in the three last decades, particularly in the older age groups. It is best explained by disproportional period effects, providing evidence of time-varying external factors including improved access to diagnosis among females.

Effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on the prevalence of diabetes and obesity in Korean men.

PubMed

Kwon, Jin-Won; Song, Yun-mi; Park, Hye soon; Sung, Joohon; Kim, Ho; Cho, Sung-il

2008-02-01

We examined changes in the prevalence of diabetes, obesity, and overweight in 412,881 Korean men in birth cohorts from 1933 to 1972 over 8 years from 1992 to 2000 and separately analyzed the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. The study included male employees of Korean government organizations and schools who were between 20 and 59 years of age in 1992. Diabetes was diagnosed on the basis of self-reports in 1992 or fasting blood glucose levels (>or=126 mg/ml, 7.0 mmol/l). The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. In Korean male birth cohorts from 1933 to 1972, the age-specific prevalence of diabetes, obesity, and overweight in men aged 28-59 years increased annually by 0.41% (3.03 to 6.29%), 0.18% (0.70 to 2.16%), and 1.49% (23.48 to 35.41%), respectively, from 1992 to 2000. The relative change in diabetes was largest among the younger cohorts (>400% increase over 8 years) and corresponded to the change in obesity. Apart from the contribution of age, clear cohort and period effects were evident for diabetes, although the magnitude of the effect was slightly less than that for obesity. Prevention of diabetes through the control of obesity, particularly in young men, clearly needs to be emphasized.

Age-period-cohort analysis of tuberculosis notifications in Hong Kong from 1961 to 2005.

PubMed

Wu, P; Cowling, B J; Schooling, C M; Wong, I O L; Johnston, J M; Leung, C-C; Tam, C-M; Leung, G M

2008-04-01

Despite its wealth, excellent vital indices and robust health care infrastructure, Hong Kong has a relatively high incidence of tuberculosis (TB) (85.4 per 100 000). Hong Kong residents have also experienced a very rapid and recent epidemiological transition; the population largely originated from migration by southern Chinese in the mid 20th century. Given the potentially long latency period of TB infection, an investigation was undertaken to determine the extent to which TB incidence rates reflect the population history and the impact of public health interventions. An age-period-cohort model was used to break down the Hong Kong TB notification rates from 1961 to 2005 into the effects of age, calendar period and birth cohort. Analysis by age showed a consistent pattern across all the cohorts by year of birth, with a peak in the relative risk of TB at 20-24 years of age. Analysis by year of birth showed an increase in the relative risk of TB from 1880 to 1900, stable risk until 1910, then a linear rate of decline from 1910 with an inflection point at 1990 for a steeper rate of decline. Period effects yielded only one inflection during the calendar years 1971-5. Economic development, social change and the World Health Organisation's short-course directly observed therapy (DOTS) strategy have contributed to TB control in Hong Kong. The linear cohort effect until 1990 suggests that a relatively high, but slowly falling, incidence of TB in Hong Kong will continue into the next few decades.

Age-period-cohort analysis of suicide mortality by gender among white and black Americans, 1983-2012.

PubMed

Wang, Zhenkun; Yu, Chuanhua; Wang, Jinyao; Bao, Junzhe; Gao, Xudong; Xiang, Huiyun

2016-07-13

Previous studies suggested that the racial differences in U.S. suicide rates are decreasing, particularly for African Americans, but the cause behind the temporal variations has yet to be determined. This study aims to investigate the long-term trends in suicide mortality in the U.S. between 1983 and 2012 and to examine age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects by gender and race. Suicide mortality data were collected from the Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) and analyzed with the Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. We found that although age-standardized rate of suicide in white males, white females, black males, and black females all changed at different degrees, the overall situation almost has not changed since these changes offset each other. By APC analysis, while the age effect on suicide demonstrate an obvious difference between white males and females (with the peak at 75 to 79 for white males and 45 to 54 for white females), young black people are predominantly susceptible to suicide (risk peaks in early 20s for black males and late 20s for black females). Cohort effects all showed a descending trend, except that in white males and females which showed an obvious increase peaked in around cohort 1960. There was a similar period effect trend between different genders in the same race group, but between the races, differences were found in the period before 1990 and after 2000. We confirmed that the distinction in age-specific suicide rate patterns does exist by gender and by race after controlling for period and cohort effects, which suggested that minorities' age patterns of suicide may have been masked up by the white people in the whole population. The differences of period effects and cohort effects between white and black Americans were likely to be mainly explained by the difference in race susceptibility to economic depression.

Analysis of mortality data from the former USSR: age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Willekens, F; Scherbov, S

1992-01-01

The objective of this article is to review research on age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of mortality and to trace the effects of contemporary and historical factors on mortality change in the former USSR. Several events in USSR history have exerted a lasting influence on its people. These influences may be captured by an APC model in which the period effects measure the impact of contemporary factors and the cohort effects the past history of individuals which cannot be attributed to age or stage in the life cycle. APC models are extensively applied in the study of mortality. This article presents the statistical theory of the APC models and shows that they belong to the family of generalized linear models. The parameters of the APC model may therefore be estimated by any package of loglinear analysis that allows for hybrid loglinear models.

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981-2000.

PubMed

Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2006-05-03

The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981-2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising trend in the east than in the west, and low rates on an upward trend

The marriage boom and marriage bust in the United States: An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Schellekens, Jona

2017-03-01

In the 1950s and 1960s there was an unprecedented marriage boom in the United States. This was followed in the 1970s by a marriage bust. Some argue that both phenomena are cohort effects, while others argue that they are period effects. The study reported here tested the major period and cohort theories of the marriage boom and bust, by estimating an age-period-cohort model of first marriage for the years 1925-79 using census microdata. The results of the analysis indicate that the marriage boom was mostly a period effect, although there were also cohort influences. More specifically, the hypothesis that the marriage boom was mostly a response to rising wages is shown to be consistent with the data. However, much of the marriage bust can be accounted for by unidentified cohort influences, at least until 1980.

Educational expansion and the education gradient in health: A hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Delaruelle, Katrijn; Buffel, Veerle; Bracke, Piet

2015-11-01

Researchers have recently been investigating the temporal variation in the educational gradient in health. While there is abundant literature concerning age trajectories, theoretical knowledge about cohort differences is relatively limited. Therefore, in analogy with the life course perspective, we introduce two contrasting cohort-specific hypotheses. The diminishing health returns hypothesis predicts a decrease in educational disparities in health across cohorts. By contrast, the cohort accretion hypothesis suggests that the education-health gap will be more pronounced among younger cohorts. To shed light on this, we perform a hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis (HAPC), using data from a subsample of individuals between 25 and 85 years of age (N = 232,573) from 32 countries in the European Social Survey (six waves: 2002-2012). The analysis leads to three important conclusions. First, we observe a widening health gap between different educational levels over the life course. Second, we find that these educational differences in the age trajectories of health seem to strengthen with each successive birth cohort. However, the two age-related effects disappear when we control for employment status, household income, and family characteristics. Last, when adjusting for these mediators, we reveal evidence to support the diminishing health returns hypothesis, implying that it is primarily the direct association between education and health that decreases across cohorts. This finding raises concerns about potential barriers to education being a vehicle for empowerment and the promotion of health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age, period, and birth cohort-specific effects on cervical cancer mortality rates in Japanese women and projections for mortality rates over 20-year period (2012-2031).

PubMed

Uchida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Mizuki; Hosobuchi, Ami; Ohta, Ayano; Ohtake, Kazuo; Yamaki, Tutomu; Uchida, Masaki; Odagiri, Youichi; Natsume, Hideshi; Kobayashi, Jun

2014-01-01

We aimed to determine the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on cervical cancer mortality rate trends in Japanese women, by age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Additionally, we analyzed projected mortality rates. We obtained data on the number of cervical cancer deaths in Japanese women from 1975-2011 from the national vital statistics and census population data. A cohort table of mortality rate data was analyzed on the basis of a Bayesian APC model. We also projected the mortality rates for the 2012-2031 period. The period effect was relatively limited, compared with the age and cohort effects. The age effect increased suddenly from 25-29 to 45-49 years of age and gently increased thereafter. An analysis of the cohort effect on mortality rate trends revealed a steep decreasing slope for birth cohorts born from 1908-1940 and a subsequent sudden increase after 1945. The mortality rate projections indicated increasing trends from 40 to 74 years of age until the year 2031. The age effect increased from 25-29 years of age. This could be attributable to the high human papilloma virus (HPV) infection risk and the low cervical cancer screening rate. The cohort effect changed from decreasing to increasing after the early 1940s. This might be attributable to the spread of cervical cancer screening and treatment before 1940 and the high HPV infection risk and reduced cervical cancer screening rate after 1945. The projected mortality rate indicated an increasing trend until the year 2031.

Mortality of colorectal cancer in Taiwan, 1971-2010: temporal changes and age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Su, Shih-Yung; Huang, Jing-Yang; Jian, Zhi-Hong; Ho, Chien-Chang; Lung, Chia-Chi; Liaw, Yung-Po

2012-12-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cause of cancer death in developed countries among men (after lung cancer) and the third most common among women. This study thus examines the long-term trends of CRC mortality in Taiwan. CRC cases were collective between patients aged 30 years or older and younger than 85 years from the Taiwan death registries during 1971-2010. Standard descriptive techniques such as age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), aural percent change, and age-period-cohort analyses were used. The increase of percentage change by each age group in men was higher than in women. The ASMR of CRC increased 2-fold for men and almost 1.5-fold for women during the periods 1971-1975 and 2006-2010. For age-period-cohort analysis, the estimated mortality rate increased steadily with age in both sexes, and plateaued at 175.29 per 100,000 people for men and 128.14 per 100,000 for women in the 80- to 84-year-old group. Period effects were weak in both sexes. Cohort effects were strong. Between 30 and 59 years of age, the sex ratio showed that the female CRC mortality rate was higher than that of their male counterparts. Conversely, the mortality risk of CRC in men was higher than that in women when they were between 60 and 84 years old. The current findings showed a consistent increase in mortality from CRC over the years. Changes in the patient sex ratio indicated an important etiological role of sex hormones, especially in women aged 60 years or younger.

Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence in Delhi, India 1988-2012: Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Analyses

PubMed

Malhotra, Rajeev Kumar; Manoharan, Nalliah; Nair, Omana; Deo, Suryanarayana; Rath, Goura Kishor

2018-06-25

Introduction: Lung cancer (LC) has been one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide, both in terms of new cases and mortality. Exponential growth of economic and industrial activities in recent decades in the Delhi urban area may have increased the incidence of LC. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the time trend according to gender. Method: LC incidence data over 25 years were obtained from the population based urban Delhi cancer registry. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied for evaluating the time trend of age-standardized incidence rates. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed using Poisson distribution with a log link function and the intrinsic estimator method. Results: During the 25 years, 13,489 male and 3,259 female LC cases were registered, accounting for 9.78% of male and 2.53% of female total cancer cases. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that LC incidence in males continued to increase during the entire period, a sharp acceleration being observed starting from 2009. In females the LC incidence rate remained a plateau during 1988-2002 and thereafter increased. The cumulative risks for 1988-2012 were 1.79% and 0.45%. The full APC (IE) model showed best fit for an age-period-cohort effect on LC incidence, with significant increase with age peaking at 70-74 years in males and 65-69 years in females. A rising period effect was observed after adjusting for age and cohort effects in both genders and a declining cohort effect was identified after controlling for age and period effects. Conclusion: The incidence of LC in urban Delhi showed increasing trend from 1988-2012. Known factors such as environmental conservation, tobacco control, physical activity awareness and medical security should be implemented more vigorously over the long term in our population. Creative Commons Attribution License

Addressing the identification problem in age-period-cohort analysis: a tutorial on the use of partial least squares and principal components analysis.

PubMed

Tu, Yu-Kang; Krämer, Nicole; Lee, Wen-Chung

2012-07-01

In the analysis of trends in health outcomes, an ongoing issue is how to separate and estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort. As these 3 variables are perfectly collinear by definition, regression coefficients in a general linear model are not unique. In this tutorial, we review why identification is a problem, and how this problem may be tackled using partial least squares and principal components regression analyses. Both methods produce regression coefficients that fulfill the same collinearity constraint as the variables age, period, and cohort. We show that, because the constraint imposed by partial least squares and principal components regression is inherent in the mathematical relation among the 3 variables, this leads to more interpretable results. We use one dataset from a Taiwanese health-screening program to illustrate how to use partial least squares regression to analyze the trends in body heights with 3 continuous variables for age, period, and cohort. We then use another dataset of hepatocellular carcinoma mortality rates for Taiwanese men to illustrate how to use partial least squares regression to analyze tables with aggregated data. We use the second dataset to show the relation between the intrinsic estimator, a recently proposed method for the age-period-cohort analysis, and partial least squares regression. We also show that the inclusion of all indicator variables provides a more consistent approach. R code for our analyses is provided in the eAppendix.

Age, period and cohort trends in drug abuse hospitalizations within the total Swedish population (1975-2010)*

PubMed Central

Giordano, Giuseppe N.; Ohlsson, Henrik; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Winkleby, Marilyn A.; Sundquist, Kristina; Sundquist, Jan

2014-01-01

Background: The societal consequences of drug abuse (DA) are severe and well documented, the World Health Organization recommending tracking of population trends for effective policy responses in treatment of DA and delivery of health care services. However, to correctly identify possible sources of DA change, one must first disentangle three different time-related influences on the need for treatment due to DA: age effects, period effects and cohort effects. Methods: We constructed our main Swedish national DA database (spanning four decades) by linking healthcare data from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Register to individuals, which included hospitalisations in Sweden for 1975-2010. All hospitalized DA cases were identified by ICD codes. Our Swedish national sample consisted of 3,078,129 men and 2,921,816 women. We employed a cross-classified multilevel logistic regression model to disentangle any net age, period and cohort effects on DA hospitalization rates. Results: We found distinct net age, period and cohort effects, each influencing the predicted probability ofhospitalisation for DA in men and women. Peak age for DA in both sexes was 33-35 years; net period effects showed an increase in hospitalisation for DA from 1996 to 2001; and in birth cohorts 1968-74, we saw a considerable reduction (around 75%) in predicted probability of hospitalisation for DA. Conclusions: The use of hospital admissions could be regarded as a proxy of the population's health service use for DA. Our results may thus constitute a basis for effective prevention planning, treatment and other appropriate policy responses. PMID:24300899

Age-period-cohort analysis of hepatitis A incidence rates in Korea from 2002 to 2012

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiology of hepatitis A in Korea from 2002 to 2012 using age-period-cohort analyses. METHODS We used claims data from the Korean National Health Insurance Corporation for the entire population. Census data from 2010 were used as the standard population. The incidence of hepatitis A was assumed to have a Poisson distribution, and the models and effects were evaluated using the intrinsic estimator method, the likelihood ratio, and the Akaike information criterion. RESULTS The incidence of hepatitis A gradually increased until 2007 (from 17.55 to 35.72 per 100,000 population) and peaked in 2009 (177.47 per 100,000 population). The highest incidence was observed among 27-29-year-old individuals when we omitted data from 2005 to 2007. From 2005 to 2007, the peak incidence was observed among 24-26-year-old individuals, followed by 27-29-year-olds. The best model fits were observed when the age-period-cohort variables were all considered at the same time for males, females, and the whole population. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of hepatitis A exhibited significant age-period-cohort effects; its incidence peaked in 2009 and was especially high among Koreans 20-39 years of age. These epidemiological patterns may help predict when high incidence rates of hepatitis A may occur in developing countries during their socioeconomic development. PMID:27703127

Age-period-cohort analysis of hepatitis A incidence rates in Korea from 2002 to 2012.

PubMed

Seo, Joo Yeon; Choi, Sungyong; Choi, BoYoul; Ki, Moran

2016-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiology of hepatitis A in Korea from 2002 to 2012 using age-period-cohort analyses. We used claims data from the Korean National Health Insurance Corporation for the entire population. Census data from 2010 were used as the standard population. The incidence of hepatitis A was assumed to have a Poisson distribution, and the models and effects were evaluated using the intrinsic estimator method, the likelihood ratio, and the Akaike information criterion. The incidence of hepatitis A gradually increased until 2007 (from 17.55 to 35.72 per 100,000 population) and peaked in 2009 (177.47 per 100,000 population). The highest incidence was observed among 27-29-year-old individuals when we omitted data from 2005 to 2007. From 2005 to 2007, the peak incidence was observed among 24-26-year-old individuals, followed by 27-29-year-olds. The best model fits were observed when the age-period-cohort variables were all considered at the same time for males, females, and the whole population. The incidence of hepatitis A exhibited significant age-period-cohort effects; its incidence peaked in 2009 and was especially high among Koreans 20-39 years of age. These epidemiological patterns may help predict when high incidence rates of hepatitis A may occur in developing countries during their socioeconomic development.

Trends in mortality from septicaemia and pneumonia with economic development: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Wong, Irene O L; Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M; Schooling, C Mary

2012-01-01

Hong Kong population has experienced drastic changes in its economic development in the 1940s. Taking advantage of Hong Kong's unique demographic and socioeconomic history, characterized by massive, punctuated migration waves from Southern China, and recent, rapid transition from a pre-industrialized society to the first ethnic Chinese community reaching "first world" status over the last 60 years (i.e., in two or three generations), we examined the longitudinal trends in infection related mortality including septicemia compared to trends in non-bacterial pneumonia to generate hypotheses for further testing in other recently transitioned economies and to provide generalized aetiological insights on how economic transition affects infection-related mortality. We used deaths from septicemia and pneumonia not specified as bacterial, and population figures in Hong Kong from 1976-2005. We fitted age-period-cohort models to decompose septicemia and non-bacterial pneumonia mortality rates into age, period and cohort effects. Septicaemia-related deaths increased exponentially with age, with a downturn by period. The birth cohort curves had downward inflections in both sexes in the 1940s, with a steeper deceleration for women. Non-bacterial pneumonia-related deaths also increased exponentially with age, but the birth cohort patterns showed no downturns for those born in the 1940s. The observed changes appeared to suggest that better early life conditions may enable better development of adaptive immunity, thus enhancing immunity against bacterial infections, with greater benefits for women than men. Given the interaction between the immune system and the gonadotropic axis, these observations are compatible with the hypothesis that upregulation of the gonadotropic axis underlies some of the changes in disease patterns with economic development.

Life satisfaction and age: Dealing with underidentification in age-period-cohort models.

PubMed

de Ree, Joppe; Alessie, Rob

2011-07-01

Recent literature typically finds a U shaped relationship between life satisfaction and age. Age profiles, however, are not identified without forcing arbitrary restrictions on the cohort and/or time profiles. In this paper we report what can be identified about the relationship between life satisfaction and age without applying such restrictions. Also, we identify the restrictions needed to conclude that life satisfaction is U shaped in age. For the case of Germany, we find that the relationship between life satisfaction and age is indeed U shaped, but only under the untestable condition that the linear time trend is negative and that the linear trend across birth cohorts is practically flat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of age, period and birth-cohort on the frequency of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency in Sardinian adults.

PubMed

Pes, Giovanni Mario; Errigo, Alessandra; Bitti, Angela; Dore, Maria Pina

2018-02-01

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is an inherited disorder common in Sardinia. In this study, the frequency variation of G6PD-deficiency across age groups and birth cohorts was investigated using Age-Period-Cohort analysis. Data were collected from the clinical records of 11,252 patients (6975 women, age range 17-94 years) who underwent endoscopy between 2000 and 2016 at a teaching hospital (University of Sassari), Italy. G6PD status was assessed by enzymatic assay based on G6PD/6GPD ratio. A Poisson log-linear regression model was used to identify age and time trend in G6PD deficiency. Enzyme deficiency was detected in 11.4% of the entire cohort (men: 7.9%; women: 13.6%). Age-Period-Cohort analysis showed no inflection points across age groups, especially after age 80. The effects of time period and birth cohorts on G6PD deficiency were negligible (frequencies before and after 1950 were 11.0% and 11.8%, respectively). These findings indicate that the frequency of G6PD deficiency does not vary significantly in oldest subjects. The lack of evidence for selection across the malaria eradication time may be explained by other factors, including somatic cell selection or misclassification of heterozygotes women as G6PD normal in the older birth cohorts. Additional molecular studies may help clarify these issues. Key message The frequency of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency is stable across age groups and does not vary in generations born before or after malaria eradication.

Dentist age, period and cohort effects on provision of dental services in Australia: 1983-84 to 2009-10.

PubMed

Ju, Xiangqun; Spencer, A John; Brennan, David S

2017-06-01

To examine age, period and cohort factors of dentists in relation to diagnostic, preventive and total dental services over time in Australia. The Longitudinal Study of Dentists' Practice Activity (LSDPA) was designed to monitor dental practice activity and service provision in Australia. Participating dentists were sampled randomly from the dental registers in Australia from 1983 to 1984, and dental services provision was collected by mailed questionnaire with a log of dental services provided over one or two typical days. The data collection has been repeated every 5 years until 2009-2010. Sample supplementation of newly registered dentists occurred at successive waves. This study focused on diagnostic, preventive and total services. The time trends in the mean rates of the services were described using a standard cohort table, and negative binomial regression was applied to estimate age, period and cohort effects. The response rates were 73%, 75%, 74%, 71%, 76% and 67% in 1983, 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2009, respectively. The mean rates of diagnostic, preventive and total services increased between 1983 and 2009 across all age groups. The period effect showed a higher rate of diagnostic (rate ratios [RR]: 1.21 in 1993 to 1.80 in 2009), preventive (RR: 1.19 in 1988 to 1.85 in 2009) and the total service (RR: 1.08 in 1988 to 1.39 in 2009) over time, compared with the reference group of 1983. Older cohorts had a lower rate, and the younger cohorts had a higher rate of diagnostic, preventive and the total number of services over the study period. The highest rate of diagnostic (RR=2.53), preventive (RR=2.44) and the total service (RR=1.52) was in those aged 25-29 years in 1983 compared with the reference group of 30-34 years in 1983. Trends in dental services provision can be associated with age, period and cohort effects. The study found the rate of diagnostic, preventive and total services increased over time. Meanwhile, an increasing rate of diagnostic

Increasing mumps incidence rates among children and adolescents in the Republic of Korea: age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Choe, Young-June; Lee, Young Hwa; Cho, Sung-Il

2017-04-01

To characterize the temporal dynamics of mumps epidemiology according to the different vaccine strains used, sex-specific trends were decomposed in an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis for mumps cases reported in South Korea. National surveillance data were used to describe the epidemiology of mumps cases from 2001 to 2015. An APC model was used to break down the reported mumps cases into the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. From 2001 to 2015, the incidence started to increase from fewer than 10 cases to more than 100 cases per 100 000. The incidence rate was highest among males aged 15-17 years during 2013-2015, reaching 508.7 per 100 000 persons. There was an increased incidence during the late teenage years in the 1998-2000 cohort. An age shift towards the earlier teenage years was observed across the 2001-2003 and 2004-2006 cohorts. The risk of mumps increased according to the birth cohort; the net drift from 2001 to 2015 was 27.67 (95% confidence interval 27.5.47-29.90) for males and 27.25 (95% confidence interval 24.91-29.65) for females. The increase in mumps seen in Korea may have been affected by the birth cohort exposed to the Rubini strain; however other factors may have contributed to the increase in non-exposed cohorts. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Age-period-cohort analysis of oral cancer mortality in Europe: the end of an epidemic?

PubMed

Bonifazi, Martina; Malvezzi, Matteo; Bertuccio, Paola; Edefonti, Valeria; Garavello, Werner; Levi, Fabio; La Vecchia, Carlo; Negri, Eva

2011-05-01

Over the last decade, mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer has been declining in most European countries, but it had been increasing substantially in Hungary, Slovakia and a few other countries of central Europe, reaching rates comparable to those of lung cancer in several western European countries in males. To update trends in oral cancer mortality and further analyse the recent epidemic in central Europe, official death certifications for oral and pharyngeal cancer for 37 European countries were derived over the period 1970-2007, and an age-period-cohort model was fitted for selected countries. Male oral cancer mortality continued to decline in most European countries, including the Russian Federation, and, more importantly, it also started to decline in some of the countries with the highest male rates, i.e. Hungary and Slovakia; persisting rises were, however, observed in Belarus, Bulgaria and Romania. Oral cancer mortality rates for women were lower than in men and showed no appreciable trend over recent periods in the EU overall. Estimates from the age-period-cohort analysis for most selected countries showed a fall in effects for the cohorts born after the 1950s. For the period effect displayed a rise for the earlier periods, an inversion in the 1990 s and a continuous fall up to the last studied period. Only some former non-market economy countries, like Romania, Ukraine and Lithuania, had rising cohort effect trends up to most recent generations. The major finding of this updated analysis of oral cancer mortality is the leveling of the epidemic for men in most European countries, including Hungary and other central European countries, where mortality from this cancer was exceedingly high. These trends essentially reflect the changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption in various populations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An international contrast of rates of placental abruption: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Keyes, Katherine M; Hamilton, Ava; Gissler, Mika; Wu, Chunsen; Liu, Shiliang; Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Skjærven, Rolv; Williams, Michelle A; Tikkanen, Minna; Cnattingius, Sven

2015-01-01

Although rare, placental abruption is implicated in disproportionately high rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Understanding geographic and temporal variations may provide insights into possible amenable factors of abruption. We examined abruption frequencies by maternal age, delivery year, and maternal birth cohorts over three decades across seven countries. Women that delivered in the US (n = 863,879; 1979-10), Canada (4 provinces, n = 5,407,463; 1982-11), Sweden (n = 3,266,742; 1978-10), Denmark (n = 1,773,895; 1978-08), Norway (n = 1,780,271, 1978-09), Finland (n = 1,411,867; 1987-10), and Spain (n = 6,151,508; 1999-12) were analyzed. Abruption diagnosis was based on ICD coding. Rates were modeled using Poisson regression within the framework of an age-period-cohort analysis, and multi-level models to examine the contribution of smoking in four countries. Abruption rates varied across the seven countries (3-10 per 1000), Maternal age showed a consistent J-shaped pattern with increased rates at the extremes of the age distribution. In comparison to births in 2000, births after 2000 in European countries had lower abruption rates; in the US there was an increase in rate up to 2000 and a plateau thereafter. No birth cohort effects were evident. Changes in smoking prevalence partially explained the period effect in the US (P = 0.01) and Sweden (P<0.01). There is a strong maternal age effect on abruption. While the abruption rate has plateaued since 2000 in the US, all other countries show declining rates. These findings suggest considerable variation in abruption frequencies across countries; differences in the distribution of risk factors, especially smoking, may help guide policy to reduce abruption rates.

Age-specific mortality trends in France and Italy since 1900: period and cohort effects.

PubMed

Caselli, G; Vallin, J; Vaupel, J W; Yashin, A

1987-11-01

The age/sex-specific mortality trends of France and Italy were studied over the 1899-1979 period in as much detail as possible in an effort to distinguish between cohort effects and those related to period changes. Complete series of mortality data by individual years of age and calendar years were available from 1869 to 1979 for Italy and from 1899 to 1982 for France. For both countries, these data include the military and civil deaths not registered in vital statistics during the war periods. They cover each national territory as defined by its present boundaries. The graphical representation method of mortality surfaces, elaborated by Vaupel, Gambill, and Yashin (1985), was adopted. The age/sex-specific mortality patterns of France and Italy have not followed the same trends, and the differences observed today are not those of 100 years ago. The mean death probabilities for the 1975-79 period were used to illustrate the age-specific patterns of mortality. Although infant mortality was higher in Italy than in France, the death probabilities at ages 1-15 for both sexes were roughly the same for both countries. At ages 15-23, they were much higher in France than in Italy, and they remained considerably higher in France up to age 55. From then on, the sexes differ: for males, the 2 countries showed similar patterns, whereas for females the probabilities were noticeably higher for France. The situation was very different for both countries at the beginning of the century. For both sexes, higher mortality was observed in Italy not only during infancy but throughout childhood and the adolescent years up to age 15. The 2 countries showed similar patterns from 15-25. Above age 25, the 2 countries had similar patterns for females, whereas male mortality was higher in France right up to the old age groups. Such differences in the age-specific mortality trends depend in part on a different development of health and social conditions but also may be due to factors concerning

Temporal Trends of Suicide Mortality in Mainland China: Results from the Age-Period-Cohort Framework.

PubMed

Wang, Zhenkun; Wang, Jinyao; Bao, Junzhe; Gao, Xudong; Yu, Chuanhua; Xiang, Huiyun

2016-08-03

The aim of this study is to explore the long-term trends of suicide mortality in China. We implemented the age-period-cohort (APC) framework, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Our results showed that the net drift of suicide mortality was -4.727% (95% CI: -4.821% to -4.634%) per year for men and -6.633% (95% CI: -6.751% to -6.515%) per year for women, and the local drift values were below 0 in all age groups (p < 0.01 for all) for both sexes during the period of 1994-2013. Longitudinal age curves indicated that, in the same birth cohort, suicide death risk increased rapidly to peak at the life stage of 20-24 years old and 15-24 years old for men and women, respectively, and then showed a decelerated decline, followed by a rise thereafter after 54 years old for men and a slight one after 69 years old for women. The estimated period and cohort RRs were found to show similar monotonic downward patterns (significantly with p < 0.01 for all) for both sexes, with more quickly decreasing for women than for men during the whole period. The decreasing trend of suicide was likely to be related to the economic rapid growth, improvements in health care, enhancement on the level of education, and increasing awareness of suicide among the public in China. In addition, fast urbanization and the effective control of pesticides and rodenticides might be the special reasons behind these trends we observed in this study.

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: application of the age-period-cohort model.

PubMed

Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Yi-Chia; Lien, Guang-Wen

2005-03-05

Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects) for mortality from lung cancer. The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries.

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort model

PubMed Central

Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Yi-Chia; Lien, Guang-Wen

2005-01-01

Background Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. Methods International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects) for mortality from lung cancer. Results The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Conclusion Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries. PMID:15748289

Alcohol Tax Policy and Related Mortality. An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of a Rapidly Developed Chinese Population, 1981–2010

PubMed Central

Chung, Roger Y.; Kim, Jean H.; Yip, Benjamin H.; Wong, Samuel Y. S.; Wong, Martin C. S.; Chung, Vincent C. H.; Griffiths, Sian M.

2014-01-01

To delineate the temporal dynamics between alcohol tax policy changes and related health outcomes, this study examined the age, period and cohort effects on alcohol-related mortality in relation to changes in government alcohol policies. We used the age-period-cohort modeling to analyze retrospective mortality data over 30 years from 1981 to 2010 in a rapidly developed Chinese population, Hong Kong. Alcohol-related mortality from 1) chronic causes, 2) acute causes, 3) all (chronic+acute) causes and 4) causes 100% attributable to alcohol, as defined according to the Alcohol-Related Disease Impact (ARDI) criteria developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, were examined. The findings illustrated the possible effects of alcohol policy changes on adult alcohol-related mortality. The age-standardized mortality trends were generally in decline, with fluctuations that coincided with the timing of the alcohol policy changes. The age-period-cohort analyses demonstrated possible temporal dynamics between alcohol policy changes and alcohol-related mortality through the period effects, and also generational impact of alcohol policy changes through the cohort effects. Based on the illustrated association between the dramatic increase of alcohol imports in the mid-1980s and the increased alcohol-related mortality risk of the generations coming of age of majority at that time, attention should be paid to generations coming of drinking age during the 2007–2008 duty reduction. PMID:25153324

Period Effects, Cohort Effects, and the Narrowing Gender Wage Gap

PubMed Central

Campbell, Colin; Pearlman, Jessica

2015-01-01

Despite the abundance of sociological research on the gender wage gap, questions remain. In particular, the role of cohorts is under investigated. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we use Age-Period-Cohort analysis to uniquely estimate age, period, and cohort effects on the gender wage gap. The narrowing of the gender wage gap that occurred between 1975 and 2009 is largely due to cohort effects. Since the mid-1990s, the gender wage gap has continued to close absent of period effects. While gains in female wages contributed to declines in the gender wage gap for cohorts born before 1950, for later cohorts the narrowing of the gender wage gap is primarily a result of declines in male wages. PMID:24090861

Jim Crow and premature mortality among the US Black and White population, 1960-2009: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Krieger, Nancy; Chen, Jarvis T; Coull, Brent A; Beckfield, Jason; Kiang, Mathew V; Waterman, Pamela D

2014-07-01

Scant research has analyzed the health impact of abolition of Jim Crow (ie, legal racial discrimination overturned by the US 1964 Civil Rights Act). We used hierarchical age-period-cohort models to analyze US national black and white premature mortality rates (death before 65 years of age) in 1960-2009. Within a context of declining US black and white premature mortality rates and a persistent 2-fold excess black risk of premature mortality in both the Jim Crow and non-Jim Crow states, analyses including random period, cohort, state, and county effects and fixed county income effects found that, within the black population, the largest Jim Crow-by-period interaction occurred in 1960-1964 (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.15 [95% confidence interval = 1.09-1.22), yielding the largest overall period-specific Jim Crow effect MRR of 1.27, with no such interactions subsequently observed. Furthermore, the most elevated Jim Crow-by-cohort effects occurred for birth cohorts from 1901 through 1945 (MRR range = 1.05-1.11), translating to the largest overall cohort-specific Jim Crow effect MRRs for the 1921-1945 birth cohorts (MRR ~ 1.2), with no such interactions subsequently observed. No such interactions between Jim Crow and either period or cohort occurred among the white population. Together, the study results offer compelling evidence of the enduring impact of both Jim Crow and its abolition on premature mortality among the US black population, although insufficient to eliminate the persistent 2-fold black excess risk evident in both the Jim Crow and non-Jim Crow states from 1960 to 2009.

Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952-2006: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Seoane-Mato, Daniel; Aragonés, Nuria; Ferreras, Eva; García-Pérez, Javier; Cervantes-Amat, Marta; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; López-Abente, Gonzalo

2014-04-11

Although oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors, no comparative analysis of mortality rate trends in these illnesses has been undertaken in Spain. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on the mortality rates of these tumours. Specific and age-adjusted mortality rates by tumour and sex were analysed. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each tumour and sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Among men, the period-effect curvatures for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers displayed a mortality trend that rose until 1995 and then declined. Among women, oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality increased throughout the study period whereas oesophageal cancer mortality decreased after 1970. Stomach cancer mortality decreased in both sexes from 1965 onwards. Lastly, the cohort-effect curvature showed a certain degree of similarity for all three tumours in both sexes, which was greater among oral cavity, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, with a change point in evidence, after which risk of death increased in cohorts born from the 1910-1920s onwards and decreased among the 1950-1960 cohorts and successive generations. This latter feature was likewise observed for stomach cancer. While the similarities of the cohort effects in oral cavity/pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric tumours support the implication of shared risk factors, the more marked changes in cohort-effect curvature for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer could be due to the greater influence of some risk factors in their aetiology, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The increase in oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality in women deserves further study.

Joint Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Conduct Problems Among American Adolescents From 1991 Through 2015.

PubMed

Keyes, Katherine M; Gary, Dahsan S; Beardslee, Jordan; Prins, Seth J; O'Malley, Patrick M; Rutherford, Caroline; Schulenberg, John

2018-03-01

Although arrest rates among juveniles have substantially decreased since the 1990s, US national trends in conduct problems are unknown. Population variation in conduct problems would imply changes in the social environment, which would include emergent or receding risk factors. In the present study, we separated age, period, and cohort effects on conduct problems using nationally representative surveys of 375,879 US students conducted annually (1991-2015). The summed score of 7 items measuring the frequency of conduct problems was the outcome. Conduct problems have decreased during the past 25 years among boys; the total amount of the decrease was approximately 0.4 standard deviations (P < 0.01), and by item prevalence, the total amount of the decrease was 8%-11%. Declines are best explained by period effects beginning approximately in 2008, and a declining cohort effect beginning among those born after 1992, which suggests not only declines in population levels, but more rapid declines among younger cohorts of boys. Trends were also consistent with age-period-cohort effects on evenings spent out, which suggest a possible mechanism. Conduct problems among girls were lower than boys and did not demonstrate trends across time. These changes may reflect the changing nature of adolescence toward less unsupervised interaction.

Period effects, cohort effects, and the narrowing gender wage gap.

PubMed

Campbell, Colin; Pearlman, Jessica

2013-11-01

Despite the abundance of sociological research on the gender wage gap, questions remain. In particular, the role of cohorts is under investigated. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we use age-period-cohort analysis to uniquely estimate age, period, and cohort effects on the gender wage gap. The narrowing of the gender wage gap that occurred between 1975 and 2009 is largely due to cohort effects. Since the mid-1990s, the gender wage gap has continued to close absent of period effects. While gains in female wages contributed to declines in the gender wage gap for cohorts born before 1950, for later cohorts the narrowing of the gender wage gap is primarily a result of declines in male wages. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for classical hysterotomy by gestational age.

PubMed

Osmundson, Sarah S; Garabedian, Matthew J; Lyell, Deirdre J

2013-10-01

To examine the likelihood of classical hysterotomy across preterm gestational ages and to identify factors that increase its occurrence. This is a secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort collected by the Maternal-Fetal Medicine Network of all women with singleton gestations who underwent a cesarean delivery with a known hysterotomy. Comparisons were made based on gestational age. Factors thought to influence hysterotomy type were studied, including maternal age, body mass index, parity, birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA) status, fetal presentation, labor preceding delivery, and emergent delivery. Approximately 36,000 women were eligible for analysis, of whom 34,454 (95.7%) underwent low transverse hysterotomy and 1,562 (4.3%) underwent classical hysterotomy. The median gestational age of women undergoing a classical hysterotomy was 32 weeks and the incidence peaked between 24 0/7 weeks and 25 6/7 weeks (53.2%), declining with each additional week of gestation thereafter (P for trend <.001). In multivariable regression, the likelihood of classical hysterotomy was increased with SGA (n=258; odds ratio [OR] 2.71; confidence interval [CI] 1.78-4.13), birth weight 1,000 g or less (n=467; OR 1.51; CI 1.03-2.24), and noncephalic presentation (n=783; OR 2.03; CI 1.52-2.72). The likelihood of classical hysterotomy was decreased between 23 0/7 and 27 6/7 weeks of gestation and after 32 weeks of gestation when labor preceded delivery, and increased between 28 0/7 and 31 6/7 weeks of gestation and after 32 weeks of gestation by multiparity and previous cesarean delivery. Emergent delivery did not predict classical hysterotomy. Fifty percent of women at 23-26 weeks of gestation who undergo cesarean delivery have a classical hysterotomy, and the risk declines steadily thereafter. This likelihood is increased by fetal factors, especially SGA and noncephalic presentation. : II.

Decomposing Black-White Disparities in Heart Disease Mortality in the United States, 1973–2010: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Kramer, Michael R.; Valderrama, Amy L.; Casper, Michele L.

2015-01-01

Against the backdrop of late 20th century declines in heart disease mortality in the United States, race-specific rates diverged because of slower declines among blacks compared with whites. To characterize the temporal dynamics of emerging black-white racial disparities in heart disease mortality, we decomposed race-sex–specific trends in an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of US mortality data for all diseases of the heart among adults aged ≥35 years from 1973 to 2010. The black-white gap was largest among adults aged 35–59 years (rate ratios ranged from 1.2 to 2.7 for men and from 2.3 to 4.0 for women) and widened with successive birth cohorts, particularly for men. APC model estimates suggested strong independent trends across generations (“cohort effects”) but only modest period changes. Among men, cohort-specific black-white racial differences emerged in the 1920–1960 birth cohorts. The apparent strength of the cohort trends raises questions about life-course inequalities in the social and health environments experienced by blacks and whites which could have affected their biomedical and behavioral risk factors for heart disease. The APC results suggest that the genesis of racial disparities is neither static nor restricted to a single time scale such as age or period, and they support the importance of equity in life-course exposures for reducing racial disparities in heart disease. PMID:26199382

Who theorizes age? The "socio-demographic variables" device and age-period-cohort analysis in the rhetoric of survey research.

PubMed

Rughiniș, Cosima; Humă, Bogdana

2015-12-01

In this paper we argue that quantitative survey-based social research essentializes age, through specific rhetorical tools. We outline the device of 'socio-demographic variables' and we discuss its argumentative functions, looking at scientific survey-based analyses of adult scientific literacy, in the Public Understanding of Science research field. 'Socio-demographics' are virtually omnipresent in survey literature: they are, as a rule, used and discussed as bundles of independent variables, requiring little, if any, theoretical and measurement attention. 'Socio-demographics' are rhetorically effective through their common-sense richness of meaning and inferential power. We identify their main argumentation functions as 'structure building', 'pacification', and 'purification'. Socio-demographics are used to uphold causal vocabularies, supporting the transmutation of the descriptive statistical jargon of 'effects' and 'explained variance' into 'explanatory factors'. Age can also be studied statistically as a main variable of interest, through the age-period-cohort (APC) disambiguation technique. While this approach has generated interesting findings, it did not mitigate the reductionism that appears when treating age as a socio-demographic variable. By working with age as a 'socio-demographic variable', quantitative researchers convert it (inadvertently) into a quasi-biological feature, symmetrical, as regards analytical treatment, with pathogens in epidemiological research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of socioeconomic status on physical and mental health of hemodialysis patients in Japan: differences by age, period, and cohort

PubMed Central

Sugisawa, Hidehiro; Shimizu, Yumiko; Kumagai, Tamaki; Sugisaki, Hiroaki; Ohira, Seiji; Shinoda, Toshio

2016-01-01

Study purpose Whether or not socioeconomic status (SES)-related differences in the health of hemodialysis patients differ by age, period, and birth cohort remains unclear. We examined whether SES-related gaps in physical and mental health change with age, period, and birth cohort for hemodialysis patients. Methods Data were obtained from repeated cross-sectional surveys conducted in 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011, with members of a national patients’ association as participants. We used raking adjustment to create a database which had similar characteristics to the total sample of dialysis patients in Japan. SES was assessed using family size-adjusted income levels. We divided patients into three groups based on their income levels: below the first quartile, over the second quartile and under the third quartile, and over the fourth quartile. We used the number of dialysis complications as a physical health indicator and depressive symptoms as a mental health indicator. We used a cross-classified random-effects model that estimated fixed effects of age categories and period as level-1 factors, and random effects of birth cohort as level-2 factors. Results Relative risk of dialysis complications in respondents below the first quartile compared with ones over the fourth quartile was reduced in age categories >60 years. Mean differences in depressive symptoms between respondents below the first quartile and ones over the fourth quartile peaked in the 50- to 59-year-old age group, and were reduced in age groups >60 years. In addition, mean differences varied across periods, widening from 1996 to 2006. There were no significant birth cohort effects on income differences for dialysis complications or depressive symptoms. Conclusion The number of dialysis complications and depressive symptoms in dialysis patients were affected by income differences, and the degree of these differences changed with age category and period. PMID:27471405

Age, period and cohort effects on adult physical activity levels from 1991 to 2011 in China.

PubMed

Zang, Jiajie; Ng, Shu Wen

2016-04-20

To date no work has differentiated the effects of age, period, and cohort on physical activity (PA) among Chinese adults, while also considering biological, behavioral, economic, and environmental factors over time. We used data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) between 1991 and 2011 (20 years). The outcomes of interest are metabolic equivalent of task (MET) hours per week from work and domestic activities. Age, individual characteristics, household size, asset ownership, urbanization were included as covariates. Analyses for adult (≥20y) males (n = 29,343) and females (n = 31,094) was conducted to explicitly assess differences in PA due to age vs period effects, and implicitly assess differences by cohorts due to the period-specific experiences across individuals of varying ages. The mean age of the sample rose from 41.31 to 50.8 years and PA decreased from 427.75 ± 264.35 MET hours per week (MET-hr/wk) in 1991 to 245.99 ± 206.65 MET-hr/wk in 2011, with much steeper declines for women compared to men. For both genders, we found non-linear decreases in PA with age over time. Controlling for age effects, negative period effects on PA were observed in each survey year, and were substantial from 1993 to 2000 for males and from 1993 to 2011 for females. The interaction between survey year and age (P < 0.05) were observed from 2004 to 2011. Higher community urbanicity, vehicle ownership, TV and computer ownership, overweight and obese, higher education served as negative predictors. Bicycle ownership, bigger household size, non-professional jobs, being married and having more children (for women) were positive predictors of PA (P < 0.05). Furthermore, at any given age, individuals who were younger at baseline had higher mean PA compared with individuals older at baseline. This study followed a large cohort of adults over a significant portion of their lives. Strong age and secular trends were observed, resulting in an

Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

2017-10-01

In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952–2006: an age-period-cohort analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Although oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors, no comparative analysis of mortality rate trends in these illnesses has been undertaken in Spain. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on the mortality rates of these tumours. Methods Specific and age-adjusted mortality rates by tumour and sex were analysed. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each tumour and sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Results Among men, the period-effect curvatures for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers displayed a mortality trend that rose until 1995 and then declined. Among women, oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality increased throughout the study period whereas oesophageal cancer mortality decreased after 1970. Stomach cancer mortality decreased in both sexes from 1965 onwards. Lastly, the cohort-effect curvature showed a certain degree of similarity for all three tumours in both sexes, which was greater among oral cavity, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, with a change point in evidence, after which risk of death increased in cohorts born from the 1910-1920s onwards and decreased among the 1950–1960 cohorts and successive generations. This latter feature was likewise observed for stomach cancer. Conclusions While the similarities of the cohort effects in oral cavity/pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric tumours support the implication of shared risk factors, the more marked changes in cohort-effect curvature for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer could be due to the greater influence of some risk factors in their aetiology, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The increase in oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality in women deserves further study. PMID:24725381

Trends of stomach cancer mortality in Eastern Asia in 1950-2004: comparative study of Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore using age, period and cohort analysis.

PubMed

Tanaka, Masahiro; Ma, Enbo; Tanaka, Hideo; Ioka, Akiko; Nakahara, Toshitaka; Takahashi, Hideto

2012-02-15

To characterize the temporal trends of stomach cancer mortality in Eastern Asia and to better interpret the causes of the trends, we performed age, period and cohort analysis (APC analysis) on the mortality rates in Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore during 1950-2004, as well as the rates in the US as a control population. For the APC analysis, Holford's approach was used to avoid the identification problem. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) decreased consistently in all four areas during the observation period in both males and females. Japan had the highest ASMR in both sexes, followed by Singapore, Hong Kong and the US, but the differences in ASMR among the four areas diminished with time. The results of APC analysis suggested that the decreasing mortality rates in Eastern Asia were caused by the combination of decreasing cohort effect since the end of the 1800s and decreasing period effect from the 1950s. The US showed similar results, but its decreases in the period and cohort effect preceded those of Eastern Asia. Possible causes for the decrease in the cohort effect include improvement in the socioeconomic conditions during childhood and a decrease in the prevalence of H. pylori infection, while possible causes for the decrease in the period effect include a decrease in dietary salt intake and improvements in cancer detection and treatment. These findings may help us to predict future changes in the mortality rates of stomach cancer. Copyright © 2011 UICC.

Differentiation of Period, Age, and Cohort Effects on Drug Use 1976-1986. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series, Paper 22.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Malley, Patrick M.; And Others

Conducted as part of the Monitoring the Future project, this study used a cohort-sequential design to examine period, age, and cohort effects on substance use among American youth between the ages of 18 and 28 from the high school classes of 1976 to 1986. This manuscript supersedes Paper 14 in the series which reported on American youth from 18-24…

Changing Attitudes Toward Euthanasia and Suicide for Terminally Ill Persons, 1977 to 2016: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

PubMed

Attell, Brandon K

2017-01-01

Several longitudinal studies show that over time the American public has become more approving of euthanasia and suicide for terminally ill persons. Yet, these previous findings are limited because they derive from biased estimates of disaggregated hierarchical data. Using insights from life course sociological theory and cross-classified logistic regression models, I better account for this liberalization process by disentangling the age, period, and cohort effects that contribute to longitudinal changes in these attitudes. The results of the analysis point toward a continued liberalization of both attitudes over time, although the magnitude of change was greater for suicide compared with euthanasia. More fluctuation in the probability of supporting both measures was exhibited for the age and period effects over the cohort effects. In addition, age-based differences in supporting both measures were found between men and women and various religious affiliations.

Structure and Correlates of Cognitive Aging in a Narrow Age Cohort

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Aging-related changes occur for multiple domains of cognitive functioning. An accumulating body of research indicates that, rather than representing statistically independent phenomena, aging-related cognitive changes are moderately to strongly correlated across domains. However, previous studies have typically been conducted in age-heterogeneous samples over longitudinal time lags of 6 or more years, and have failed to consider whether results are robust to a comprehensive set of controls. Capitalizing on 3-year longitudinal data from the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1936, we took a longitudinal narrow age cohort approach to examine cross-domain cognitive change interrelations from ages 70 to 73 years. We fit multivariate latent difference score models to factors representing visuospatial ability, processing speed, memory, and crystallized ability. Changes were moderately interrelated, with a general factor of change accounting for 47% of the variance in changes across domains. Change interrelations persisted at close to full strength after controlling for a comprehensive set of demographic, physical, and medical factors including educational attainment, childhood intelligence, physical function, APOE genotype, smoking status, diagnosis of hypertension, diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, and diagnosis of diabetes. Thus, the positive manifold of aging-related cognitive changes is highly robust in that it can be detected in a narrow age cohort followed over a relatively brief longitudinal period, and persists even after controlling for many potential confounders. PMID:24955992

Allele Age Under Non-Classical Assumptions is Clarified by an Exact Computational Markov Chain Approach.

PubMed

De Sanctis, Bianca; Krukov, Ivan; de Koning, A P Jason

2017-09-19

Determination of the age of an allele based on its population frequency is a well-studied problem in population genetics, for which a variety of approximations have been proposed. We present a new result that, surprisingly, allows the expectation and variance of allele age to be computed exactly (within machine precision) for any finite absorbing Markov chain model in a matter of seconds. This approach makes none of the classical assumptions (e.g., weak selection, reversibility, infinite sites), exploits modern sparse linear algebra techniques, integrates over all sample paths, and is rapidly computable for Wright-Fisher populations up to N e  = 100,000. With this approach, we study the joint effect of recurrent mutation, dominance, and selection, and demonstrate new examples of "selective strolls" where the classical symmetry of allele age with respect to selection is violated by weakly selected alleles that are older than neutral alleles at the same frequency. We also show evidence for a strong age imbalance, where rare deleterious alleles are expected to be substantially older than advantageous alleles observed at the same frequency when population-scaled mutation rates are large. These results highlight the under-appreciated utility of computational methods for the direct analysis of Markov chain models in population genetics.

Global patterns and trends in stomach cancer incidence: Age, period and birth cohort analysis.

PubMed

Luo, Ganfeng; Zhang, Yanting; Guo, Pi; Wang, Li; Huang, Yuanwei; Li, Ke

2017-10-01

The cases of stomach cancer (SC) incidence are increasing per year and the SC burden has remained very high in some countries. We aimed to evaluate the global geographical variation in SC incidence and temporal trends from 1978 to 2007, with an emphasis on the effect of birth cohort. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model were applied. From 2003 to 2007, male rate were 1.5- to 3-fold higher than female in all countries. Rates were highest in Eastern Asian and South American countries. Except for Uganda, all countries showed favorable trends. Pronounced cohort-specific increases in risk for recent birth cohorts were seen in Brazil, Colombia, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Uganda and US white people for males and in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Iceland, India, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Uganda, US black and white people for females. The cohort-specific ratio for male significantly decreased in Japan, Malta and Spain for cohorts born since 1950 and in Austria, China, Croatia, Ecuador, Russia, Switzerland and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960 and for female in Japan for cohorts born since 1950 and in Canada, China, Croatia, Latvia, Russia and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960. Disparities in incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. The favorable trends may be due to changes in environmental exposure and lifestyle, including decreased Helicobacter pylori prevalence, increased intake of fresh fruits and vegetables, the availability of refrigeration and decreased intake of salted and preserved food and smoking prevalence. © 2017 UICC.

Trends in esophageal cancer mortality in China during 1987-2009: age, period and birth cohort analyzes.

PubMed

Guo, Pi; Li, Ke

2012-04-01

Esophageal cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed malignant tumors in China. The aim of this study was to provide the representative and comprehensive informations about the long-term mortality trends of this disease in China between 1987 and 2009, using joinpoint regression and generalized additive models (GAMs). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), overall and truncated (35-64 years), were calculated using the direct calculation method, and joinpoint regression was performed to obtain the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). GAMs were fitted to study the effects of age, period and birth cohort on mortality trends. ASMR exhibited an overall remarked decline for rural females (EAPC=-2.3 95%CI: -3.3, -1.2), urban males (EAPC=-1.8 95%CI: -2.6, -1.0) and urban females (EAPC=-3.7 95%CI: -4.9, -2.4), but a small drop observed was not statistically significant for rural males (EAPC=-0.9 95%CI: -2.0, 0.3). The declines in ASMR were more noticeable for urban residents in recent years. Among all the residents, age effect showed an progressively increasing trend, whereas cohort effect declined steadily after the year corresponding to the maximum risk value. Period effect seemed to remain substantially unchanged throughout the years. Although variations in mortality rates were observed according to sex and area, the overall decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality were found in most Chinese people, aside from rural males. The findings could correspond to the changes in age- and cohort-related factors in the population. Further study is required to understand these potential factors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structure and correlates of cognitive aging in a narrow age cohort.

PubMed

Tucker-Drob, Elliot M; Briley, Daniel A; Starr, John M; Deary, Ian J

2014-06-01

Aging-related changes occur for multiple domains of cognitive functioning. An accumulating body of research indicates that, rather than representing statistically independent phenomena, aging-related cognitive changes are moderately to strongly correlated across domains. However, previous studies have typically been conducted in age-heterogeneous samples over longitudinal time lags of 6 or more years, and have failed to consider whether results are robust to a comprehensive set of controls. Capitalizing on 3-year longitudinal data from the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1936, we took a longitudinal narrow age cohort approach to examine cross-domain cognitive change interrelations from ages 70 to 73 years. We fit multivariate latent difference score models to factors representing visuospatial ability, processing speed, memory, and crystallized ability. Changes were moderately interrelated, with a general factor of change accounting for 47% of the variance in changes across domains. Change interrelations persisted at close to full strength after controlling for a comprehensive set of demographic, physical, and medical factors including educational attainment, childhood intelligence, physical function, APOE genotype, smoking status, diagnosis of hypertension, diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, and diagnosis of diabetes. Thus, the positive manifold of aging-related cognitive changes is highly robust in that it can be detected in a narrow age cohort followed over a relatively brief longitudinal period, and persists even after controlling for many potential confounders. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Working Life and Retirement Expectancies at Age 50 by Social Class: Period and Cohort Trends and Projections for Finland.

PubMed

Leinonen, Taina; Martikainen, Pekka; Myrskylä, Mikko

2018-01-11

The balance between the amount of time spent in work and in retirement underlies the long-term sustainability of the social security system. We examined socioeconomic differences in how increasing longevity is distributed between labor market statuses in Finland. We used register data and the Sullivan method to analyze life expectancy at age 50 spent in different labor market statuses over the period 1989-2012 and across cohorts born in 1938-1953. We projected the future mortality and labor market participation rates of partially observed cohorts. Both working life expectancy at age 50 and the share of remaining life spent in work have increased across periods following the recession of the early 1990s, and across successive cohorts. The trends were similar across the social classes, but there were large differences in the numbers of years spent in various states: for the most recent period and the youngest cohort, we find that compared with upper non-manual employees, male and female manual workers were expected to spend 3.6-3.7 fewer years in work, 1.7-4.7 fewer years in statutory retirement, and 3.2-3.9 more years in other forms of nonemployment. Our finding that the share of remaining life at age 50 spent in work is increasing implies that pressure on the welfare system is not as severe as is commonly thought. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Trends in alcohol-related mortality in East and West Germany, 1980-2014: age, period and cohort variations.

PubMed

Piontek, Daniela; Kraus, Ludwig

2018-05-01

Several indicators suggest that the extent and trends of alcohol-related mortality differ between East and West Germany. Regional drinking patterns and differences in health-care systems are assumed to affect the risk of dying from an alcohol-induced disease. The study addresses two questions: (1) what are the unbiased and independent age, period and cohort effects on alcohol-related mortality trends in Germany; and (2) do these trends differ between East and West Germany? Data on alcohol-related mortality for East and West Germany came from the national causes of death register for the years 1980-2014. Analyses included all deaths fully attributable to alcohol based on the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 and ICD-10). Gender-stratified age-period-cohort analyses were conducted using the intrinsic estimator model. Age effects showed a concave pattern with a peak at ages 55-64 years in both regions. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) in East Germany were highest in the years 1990-1994 (men and women: IRR = 1.52) and declined thereafter. In West Germany, IRR were lowest in 1980-1984 (men: IRR = 0.81, women: IRR = 0.75) and stabilized at approximately 1.10 since 1995-1999. Cohort effects showed continuously lower IRR for those born after 1955-1959 in the East and those born after 1945-1949 in the West. Patterns for males and females were comparable. The results suggest that alcohol-related mortality showed different trends in East and West Germany, which can be explained partly by different drinking patterns before and changes in the health-care system after the reunification. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Use of age-period-cohort models to estimate effects of vehicle age, year of crash and year of vehicle manufacture on driver injury and fatality rates in single vehicle crashes in New South Wales, 2003-2010.

PubMed

Anderson, R W G; Searson, D J

2015-02-01

A novel application of age-period-cohort methods are used to explain changes in vehicle based crash rates in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2003-2010. Models are developed using vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort to explain changes in the rate of single vehicle driver fatalities and injuries in vehicles less than 13 years of age. Large declines in risk are associated with vehicle cohorts built after about 1996. The decline in risk appears to have accelerated to 12 percent per vehicle cohort year for cohorts since 2004. Within each cohort, the risk of crashing appears to be a minimum at two years of age and increases as the vehicle ages beyond this. Period effects (i.e., other road safety measures) between 2003 and 2010 appear to have contributed to declines of up to about two percent per annum to the driver-fatality single vehicle crash rate, and possibly only negligible improvements to the driver-injury single vehicle crash rate. Vehicle improvements appear to have been responsible for a decline in per-vehicle crash risk of at least three percent per calendar year for both severity levels over the same period. Given the decline in risk associated with more recent vehicle cohorts and the dynamics of fleet turnover, continued declines in per-vehicle crash risk over coming years are almost certain. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sexual Inactivity During Young Adulthood Is More Common Among U.S. Millennials and iGen: Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Having No Sexual Partners After Age 18.

PubMed

Twenge, Jean M; Sherman, Ryne A; Wells, Brooke E

2017-02-01

Examining age, time period, and cohort/generational changes in sexual experience is key to better understanding sociocultural influences on sexuality and relationships. Americans born in the 1980s and 1990s (commonly known as Millennials and iGen) were more likely to report having no sexual partners as adults compared to GenX'ers born in the 1960s and 1970s in the General Social Survey, a nationally representative sample of American adults (N = 26,707). Among those aged 20-24, more than twice as many Millennials born in the 1990s (15 %) had no sexual partners since age 18 compared to GenX'ers born in the 1960s (6 %). Higher rates of sexual inactivity among Millennials and iGen also appeared in analyses using a generalized hierarchical linear modeling technique known as age-period-cohort analysis to control for age and time period effects among adults of all ages. Americans born early in the 20th century also showed elevated rates of adult sexual inactivity. The shift toward higher rates of sexual inactivity among Millennials and iGen'ers was more pronounced among women and absent among Black Americans and those with a college education. Contrary to popular media conceptions of a "hookup generation" more likely to engage in frequent casual sex, a higher percentage of Americans in recent cohorts, particularly Millennials and iGen'ers born in the 1990s, had no sexual partners after age 18.

Age-period-cohort modelling of alcohol volume and heavy drinking days in the US National Alcohol Surveys: divergence in younger and older adult trends.

PubMed

Kerr, William C; Greenfield, Thomas K; Bond, Jason; Ye, Yu; Rehm, Jürgen

2009-01-01

The decomposition of trends in alcohol volume and heavy drinking days into age, period, cohort and demographic effects offers an important perspective on the dynamics of change in alcohol use patterns in the United States. The present study utilizes data from six National Alcohol Surveys conducted over the 26-year period between 1979 and 2005. Setting United States. Alcohol volume and the number of days when five or more and eight or more drinks were consumed were derived from overall and beverage-specific graduated frequency questions. Trend analyses show that while mean values of drinking measures have continued to decline for those aged 26 and older, there has been a substantial increase in both alcohol volume and 5+ days among those aged 18-25 years. Age-period-cohort models indicate a potential positive cohort effect among those born after 1975. However, an alternative interpretation of an age-cohort interaction where drinking falls off more steeply in the late 20s than was the case in the oldest surveys cannot be ruled out. For women only, the 1956-60 birth cohort appears to drink more heavily than those born just before or after. Models also indicate the importance of income, ethnicity, education and marital status in determining these alcohol measures. Increased heavy drinking among young adults in recent surveys presents a significant challenge for alcohol policy and may indicate a sustained increase in future US alcohol consumption.

Lung cancer incidence trends in Uruguay 1990-2014: An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Alonso, Rafael; Piñeros, Marion; Laversanne, Mathieu; Musetti, Carina; Garau, Mariela; Barrios, Enrique; Bray, Freddie

2018-05-11

Uruguay, a country with one of the highest lung cancer rates worldwide, initiated a series of comprehensive anti-smoking measures in 2005. We assess the tobacco control policies in the context of cohort-driven lung cancer incidence trends over a 25-year period, providing baseline predictions to 2035. Using data from the National Cancer Registry of Uruguay, an age-period-cohort analysis of trends 1990-2014 was performed. The NORDPRED package was used to predict the annual number of new cases of lung cancer and incidence rates up to 2035. In men, age-standardised (world) rates declined from a peak of 165.6 in 1995 to 103.1 by 2014, translating to a 70% reduction in the risk of lung cancer in men born in 1970 relative to the early-1940s. In females, rates increased steadily from 18.3 in 1991 to 30.0 by 2014, with successive increases in risk among generations of women born 1940-1960. There is however evidence of a decline in observed rates in women born recently. Extrapolations of the trends indicate an 8% reduction in the mean number of new lung cancer cases in men by 2035, but a 69% increase in women. Despite observed and predicted reductions in lung cancer incidence in Uruguayan men, rates among women are set to continue to increase, with a large rise in the annual number of female lung cancer diagnoses expected before 2035. There are signals of a diminishing risk among recent generations of women born after 1960. The current analysis provides important baseline information in assessing the future impact of the recent tobacco control initiatives in Uruguay. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2016-06-22

For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends. We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%-1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%-2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%-1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05). We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.

Maternal mortality in Mexico, beyond millennial development objectives: An age-period-cohort model.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Aguilar, Román

2018-01-01

The maternal mortality situation is analyzed in México as an indicator that reflects the social development level of the country and was one of the millennial development objectives. The effect of a maternal death in the related social group has multiplier effects, since it involves family dislocation, economic impact and disruption of the orphans' normal social development. Two perspectives that causes of maternal mortality were analyzed, on one hand, their relationship with social determinants and on the other, factors directly related to the health system. Evidence shows that comparing populations based on group of selected variables according to social conditions and health care access, statistically significant differences prevail according to education and marginalization levels, and access to medical care. In addition, the Age-Period-Cohort model raised, shows significant progress in terms of a downward trend in maternal mortality in a generational level. Those women born before 1980 had a greater probability of maternal death in relation to recent generations, which is a reflection of the improvement in social determinants and in the Health System. The age effect shows a problem in maternal mortality in women under 15 years old, so teen pregnancy is a priority in health and must be addressed in short term. There is no clear evidence of a period effect.

Explaining Changes in the Patterns of Black Suicide in the United States From 1981 to 2002: An Age, Cohort, and Period Analysis

PubMed Central

Joe, Sean

2009-01-01

To explore the different trends of suicide incidence among Blacks and possible contributing factors, the current study compared national epidemiologic data of suicide in the United States from 1981 to 2002. For the first time, period and birth-cohort effects on the incidence trends of Black suicide were evaluated using an age-period-cohort analysis. Cohort effects were found for males and females, suggesting that younger generations of Blacks are at higher risk. If younger cohorts carry their increased suicide risk into later life, then the recent decline in Black suicide rates will be reversed. The results of the current study are only interpretable in terms of group-level characteristics and population suicide rates and not individual-level characteristics. The possible explanation and the implications for prevention and future research are discussed. PMID:19759855

Quantum-classical correspondence in the vicinity of periodic orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumari, Meenu; Ghose, Shohini

2018-05-01

Quantum-classical correspondence in chaotic systems is a long-standing problem. We describe a method to quantify Bohr's correspondence principle and calculate the size of quantum numbers for which we can expect to observe quantum-classical correspondence near periodic orbits of Floquet systems. Our method shows how the stability of classical periodic orbits affects quantum dynamics. We demonstrate our method by analyzing quantum-classical correspondence in the quantum kicked top (QKT), which exhibits both regular and chaotic behavior. We use our correspondence conditions to identify signatures of classical bifurcations even in a deep quantum regime. Our method can be used to explain the breakdown of quantum-classical correspondence in chaotic systems.

Age, cohort and period effects in the prevalence of sleep disturbances among older people: the impact of economic downturn.

PubMed

Dregan, Alex; Armstrong, David

2009-11-01

Using two longitudinal and nationally representative datasets, this study employs a cross-cohort analysis to examine age, cohort and period effects in the prevalence of sleep loss through worry for people over the age of 50 in the UK. The likelihood of reporting sleep loss through worry is calculated at two time-points for 7785 respondents from the Health and Activity Survey (HALs) and 21,834 respondents from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), with baseline information on sleep loss through worry. Descriptive statistical methods were applied to determine the prevalence rates in sleep loss through worry at each survey within both datasets. The results of analysis reveal that sleep loss through worry declined with age, but this pattern was tempered by a temporary increase in the early 1990s. The contemporary economic downturn is suggested as a possible explanation for the significant increase in the prevalence of sleep loss through worry in 1991.

Maternal mortality in Mexico, beyond millennial development objectives: An age-period-cohort model

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The maternal mortality situation is analyzed in México as an indicator that reflects the social development level of the country and was one of the millennial development objectives. The effect of a maternal death in the related social group has multiplier effects, since it involves family dislocation, economic impact and disruption of the orphans' normal social development. Two perspectives that causes of maternal mortality were analyzed, on one hand, their relationship with social determinants and on the other, factors directly related to the health system. Evidence shows that comparing populations based on group of selected variables according to social conditions and health care access, statistically significant differences prevail according to education and marginalization levels, and access to medical care. In addition, the Age-Period-Cohort model raised, shows significant progress in terms of a downward trend in maternal mortality in a generational level. Those women born before 1980 had a greater probability of maternal death in relation to recent generations, which is a reflection of the improvement in social determinants and in the Health System. The age effect shows a problem in maternal mortality in women under 15 years old, so teen pregnancy is a priority in health and must be addressed in short term. There is no clear evidence of a period effect. PMID:29561878

Explaining Changes in the Patterns of Black Suicide in the United States from 1981 to 2002: An Age, Cohort, and Period Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joe, Sean

2006-01-01

To explore the different trends of suicide incidence among Blacks and possible contributing factors, the current study compared national epidemiologic data of suicide in the United States from 1981 to 2002. For the first time, period and birth-cohort effects on the incidence trends of Black suicide were evaluated using an age-period-cohort…

Accounting for Berkson and Classical Measurement Error in Radon Exposure Using a Bayesian Structural Approach in the Analysis of Lung Cancer Mortality in the French Cohort of Uranium Miners.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Sabine; Rage, Estelle; Laurier, Dominique; Laroche, Pierre; Guihenneuc, Chantal; Ancelet, Sophie

2017-02-01

Many occupational cohort studies on underground miners have demonstrated that radon exposure is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer mortality. However, despite the deleterious consequences of exposure measurement error on statistical inference, these analyses traditionally do not account for exposure uncertainty. This might be due to the challenging nature of measurement error resulting from imperfect surrogate measures of radon exposure. Indeed, we are typically faced with exposure uncertainty in a time-varying exposure variable where both the type and the magnitude of error may depend on period of exposure. To address the challenge of accounting for multiplicative and heteroscedastic measurement error that may be of Berkson or classical nature, depending on the year of exposure, we opted for a Bayesian structural approach, which is arguably the most flexible method to account for uncertainty in exposure assessment. We assessed the association between occupational radon exposure and lung cancer mortality in the French cohort of uranium miners and found the impact of uncorrelated multiplicative measurement error to be of marginal importance. However, our findings indicate that the retrospective nature of exposure assessment that occurred in the earliest years of mining of this cohort as well as many other cohorts of underground miners might lead to an attenuation of the exposure-risk relationship. More research is needed to address further uncertainties in the calculation of lung dose, since this step will likely introduce important sources of shared uncertainty.

Trend analysis and modelling of gender-specific age, period and birth cohort effects on alcohol abstention and consumption level for drinkers in Great Britain using the General Lifestyle Survey 1984-2009.

PubMed

Meng, Yang; Holmes, John; Hill-McManus, Daniel; Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra Sylvia

2014-02-01

British alcohol consumption and abstinence rates have increased substantially in the last 3 decades. This study aims to disentangle age, period and birth cohort effects to improve our understanding of these trends and suggest groups for targeted interventions to reduce resultant harms. Age, period, cohort analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys using separate logistic and negative binomial models for each gender. Great Britain 1984-2009. Annual nationally representative samples of approximately 20 000 adults (16+) within 13 000 households. Age (eight groups: 16-17 to 75+ years), period (six groups: 1980-84 to 2005-09) and birth cohorts (19 groups: 1900-04 to 1990-94). Outcome measures were abstinence and average weekly alcohol consumption. Controls were income, education, ethnicity and country. After accounting for period and cohort trends, 18-24-year-olds have the highest consumption levels (incident rate ratio = 1.18-1.15) and lower abstention rates (odds ratio = 0.67-0.87). Consumption generally decreases and abstention rates increase in later life. Until recently, successive birth cohorts' consumption levels were also increasing. However, for those born post-1985, abstention rates are increasing and male consumption is falling relative to preceding cohorts. In contrast, female drinking behaviours have polarized over the study period, with increasing abstention rates accompanying increases in drinkers' consumption levels. Rising female consumption of alcohol and progression of higher-consuming birth cohorts through the life course are key drivers of increased per capita alcohol consumption in the United Kingdom. Recent declines in alcohol consumption appear to be attributable to reduced consumption and increased abstinence rates among the most recent birth cohorts, especially males, and general increased rates of abstention across the study period. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Homicides among women in the different Brazilian regions in the last 35 years: an analysis of age-period-birth cohort effects.

PubMed

Souza, Edinilsa Ramos de; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Ribeiro, Adalgisa Peixoto; Santos, Juliano Dos; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Borges, Laiane Felix; Oliveira, Lannuzya Veríssimo E; Simões, Taynãna César

2017-09-01

The aim of this study is to estimate the effects of age-period-birth cohort (APC) on female homicides. This is an ecological study which analyzed the violence-related death records of women aged 10 years and older, in the Brazilian geographic regions, between 1980 and 2014. Data on mortality were extracted from the Mortality Information System. The trend analysis was conducted using negative binomial regression and APC effects were analyzed using estimable functions. The average mortality rate for the period was 5.13 deaths per 100,000 women, with the highest rates observed in the Central-West (7.98 deaths), followed by the Southeast (4.78 deaths), North (4.77 deaths), Northeast (4.05 deaths) and South (3.82 deaths) regions. All regions presented a decrease in the risk of death in the period from 2010 to 2014, except for the Northeast region (RR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.10). There was a progressive increase in the homicide risk for women born from 1955 to 1959 in all Brazilian regions. Younger women are at higher risk of dying from homicides in all Brazilian geographic regions. The upward trend of homicide mortality rates according to birth cohort was significant and the highest risk was observed in women born between 2000 and 2004.

Age, period, and cohort effects in motor vehicle mortality in the United States, 1980-2010: the role of sex, alcohol involvement, and position in vehicle.

PubMed

Macinko, James; Silver, Diana; Bae, Jin Yung

2015-02-01

Although substantive declines in motor vehicle fatalities in 1980-2010 have been observed, declines by position in the vehicle and alcohol involvement have not been well elucidated. Analyses of FARS data use the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) to produce estimates of all age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously by position in the car and by alcohol involvement. Declines in MVC deaths by position in the car vary for men and women by age and cohort over time. Cohorts born before 1970 had higher risks than those born later. Analyses using proxy indicators of alcohol involvement found the highest risks for those aged 16-24. By period, these risks declined more rapidly than non- alcohol related traffic fatalities. Changes in risk patterns are consistent with evidence regarding the contributions of new technologies and public policy efforts to reduce fatalities, but gains have not been shared evenly by sex or position in the car. Greater attention is needed in reducing deaths among older drivers and pedestrians. Gender differences should be addressed in prevention efforts aimed at reducing MVCs due to alcohol involvement. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Harmonic oscillators and resonance series generated by a periodic unstable classical orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kazansky, A. K.; Ostrovsky, Valentin N.

1995-01-01

The presence of an unstable periodic classical orbit allows one to introduce the decay time as a purely classical magnitude: inverse of the Lyapunov index which characterizes the orbit instability. The Uncertainty Relation gives the corresponding resonance width which is proportional to the Planck constant. The more elaborate analysis is based on the parabolic equation method where the problem is effectively reduced to the multidimensional harmonic oscillator with the time-dependent frequency. The resonances form series in the complex energy plane which is equidistant in the direction perpendicular to the real axis. The applications of the general approach to various problems in atomic physics are briefly exposed.

Decomposing the effects of time on the social acceptability of biotechnology using age-period-cohort-country models.

PubMed

Rousselière, Damien; Rousselière, Samira

2017-08-01

The study of European attitudes toward biotechnologies underlines a situation that is relatively contrasting in Europe. However, as different effects of time can influence the social attitudes (a life-cycle effect, a generational effect, and an exogenous temporal effect potentially affecting the entire population), an appropriate methodology should be used. To this end, age-period-cohort-country models have thus been estimated based on Eurobarometer data from 1991 onward. Applied to different data subsets, these models give similar results underlining the importance of the life-cycle effects as well as the heterogeneity of the link between political affiliation and biotechnologies attitudes across the European countries.

Ageing and the economic life cycle: The National Transfer Accounts approach.

PubMed

Temple, Jeromey B; Rice, James M; McDonald, Peter F

2017-12-01

To illustrate the use of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for understanding ageing and the economic life cycle in Australia. The NTA methodology is applied utilising a range of unit record, demographic and administrative data sets from 1981 to 2010. During early and later life, total consumption (public and private) is greater than labour income. On a time series and cohort basis, we show that each successive generation has improved their level of well-being (as measured by consumption) relative to the previous years or previous cohorts from 1981 to 1982 onwards. We also show a substantial increase in labour income earned by mature age workers over this period. International comparisons show Australia to have consumption and labour income age profiles very similar to those of Canada but dissimilar to many other countries, driven by differences in demographic and policy settings. The NTA approach provides a powerful framework to track differences in the economic life cycle across age groups, across time, across cohorts and across countries. © 2017 AJA Inc.

Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Subnational Level: An Extended Cohort-Component Approach

PubMed Central

Zeng, Yi; Land, Kenneth C.; Wang, Zhenglian; Gu, Danan

2012-01-01

This article presents the core methodological ideas, empirical assessments, and applications of an extended cohort-component approach (known as the “ProFamy model”) to simultaneously project household composition, living arrangements, and population sizes at the subnational level in the United States. Comparisons of projections from 1990 to 2000 using this approach with census counts in 2000 for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC show that 68.0 %, 17.0 %, 11.2 %, and 3.8 % of the absolute percentage errors are <3.0 %, 3.0 % to 4.99 %, 5.0 % to 9.99 %, and ≥10.0 %, respectively. Another analysis compares average forecast errors between the extended cohort-component approach and the still widely used classic headship-rate method, by projecting number-of-bedrooms–specific housing demands from 1990 to 2000 and then comparing those projections with census counts in 2000 for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC. The results demonstrate that, compared with the extended cohort-component approach, the headship-rate method produces substantially more serious forecast errors because it cannot project households by size while the extended cohort-component approach projects detailed household sizes. We also present illustrative household and living arrangement projections for the five decades from 2000 to 2050, with medium-, small-, and large-family scenarios for each of the 50 states; Washington, DC; six counties of southern California, and the Minneapolis–St. Paul metropolitan area. Among many interesting numerical outcomes of household and living arrangement projections with medium, low, and high bounds, the aging of American households over the next few decades across all states/areas is particularly striking. Finally, the limitations of the present study and potential future lines of research are discussed. PMID:23208782

Monitoring Period and Amplitude Changes in Classical Cepheids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Mary; Engle, Scott; Guinan, Edward; Wells, Mark

2018-01-01

Classical Cepheids are a specific class of radially pulsating variable stars and are fundamentally important to Astronomy and Cosmology. Their pulsations can be used to determine accurate distances, both inside the Milky Way and to other galaxies throughout the Universe, via the well-studied Period-Luminosity Relationship (the Leavitt Law). This makes Cepheids “standard candles,” and they are helping Astronomers refine the expansion rate and age of the Universe.Though Cepheid pulsations were long-theorized to be completely stable, we now know that they undergo small but observable changes in their pulsation periods. The rates of the period change give us invaluable information on the Cepheids themselves, and the advent of reliable all-sky photometry surveys has allowed Cepheid pulsations to be monitored more easily than ever before.Five Cepheids were analyzed for this study – AA Gem, BB Gem, RZ Gem, AD Gem, and DX Gem. Photometric data were obtained from two sources: ASAS (the All-Sky Automated Survey) and the RCT (Robotically Controlled Telescope) at Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona, whose consortium Villanova is a member of. This photometry is combined with available data from the literature. The two instruments combined give a longer time span, and increased precision, from which period variations can be monitored. This gives us an excellent look at how the pulsations of these 5 Cepheids are evolving over time. The pulsation behavior of the 5 Cepheids studies will be presented, along with their calculated stellar parameters.

Changes in the use practitioner-based complementary and alternative medicine over time in Canada: Cohort and period effects

PubMed Central

Canizares, Mayilee; Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah; Gignac, Monique A. M.; Glazier, Richard H.; Badley, Elizabeth M.

2017-01-01

Background The use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is growing. However the factors contributing to changes over time and to birth cohort differences in CAM use are not well understood. Setting We used data from 10186 participants, who were aged 20–69 years at the first cycle of data collection in the longitudinal component of the Canadian National Population Health Survey (1994/95-2010/11). We examined chiropractic and other practitioner-based CAM use with a focus on five birth cohorts: pre-World War II (born 1925–1934); World War II (born 1935–1944); older baby boomers (born 1945–1954); younger baby boomers (born 1955–1964); and Gen Xers (born 1965–1974). The survey collected data every two years on predisposing (e.g., sex, education), enabling (e.g., income), behavior-related factors (e.g., obesity), need (e.g., chronic conditions), and use of conventional care (primary care and specialists). Results The findings suggest that, at corresponding ages, more recent cohorts reported greater CAM (OR = 25.9, 95% CI: 20.0; 33.6 for Gen Xers vs. pre-World War) and chiropractic use than their predecessors (OR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.7; 2.8 for Gen Xers vs. pre-World War). There was also a secular trend of increasing CAM use, but not chiropractic use, over time (period effect) across all ages. Factors associated with cohort differences were different for CAM and chiropractic use. Cohort differences in CAM use were partially related to a period effect of increasing CAM use over time across all ages while cohort differences in chiropractic use were related to the higher prevalence of chronic conditions among recent cohorts. The use of conventional care was positively related to greater CAM use (OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.6; 2.0) and chiropractic use (OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1; 1.4) but did not contribute to changes over time or to cohort differences in CAM and chiropractic use. Conclusion The higher CAM use over time and in recent cohorts could reflect how recent

Nonparametric evaluation of birth cohort trends in disease rates.

PubMed

Tarone, R E; Chu, K C

2000-01-01

Although interpretation of age-period-cohort analyses is complicated by the non-identifiability of maximum likelihood estimates, changes in the slope of the birth-cohort effect curve are identifiable and have potential aetiologic significance. A nonparametric test for a change in the slope of the birth-cohort trend has been developed. The test is a generalisation of the sign test and is based on permutational distributions. A method for identifying interactions between age and calendar-period effects is also presented. The nonparametric method is shown to be powerful in detecting changes in the slope of the birth-cohort trend, although its power can be reduced considerably by calendar-period patterns of risk. The method identifies a previously unidentified decrease in the birth-cohort risk of lung-cancer mortality from 1912 to 1919, which appears to reflect a reduction in the initiation of smoking by young men at the beginning of the Great Depression (1930s). The method also detects an interaction between age and calendar period in leukemia mortality rates, reflecting the better response of children to chemotherapy. The proposed nonparametric method provides a data analytic approach, which is a useful adjunct to log-linear Poisson analysis of age-period-cohort models, either in the initial model building stage, or in the final interpretation stage.

Influence of birth cohort on age of onset cluster analysis in bipolar I disorder.

PubMed

Bauer, M; Glenn, T; Alda, M; Andreassen, O A; Angelopoulos, E; Ardau, R; Baethge, C; Bauer, R; Bellivier, F; Belmaker, R H; Berk, M; Bjella, T D; Bossini, L; Bersudsky, Y; Cheung, E Y W; Conell, J; Del Zompo, M; Dodd, S; Etain, B; Fagiolini, A; Frye, M A; Fountoulakis, K N; Garneau-Fournier, J; Gonzalez-Pinto, A; Harima, H; Hassel, S; Henry, C; Iacovides, A; Isometsä, E T; Kapczinski, F; Kliwicki, S; König, B; Krogh, R; Kunz, M; Lafer, B; Larsen, E R; Lewitzka, U; Lopez-Jaramillo, C; MacQueen, G; Manchia, M; Marsh, W; Martinez-Cengotitabengoa, M; Melle, I; Monteith, S; Morken, G; Munoz, R; Nery, F G; O'Donovan, C; Osher, Y; Pfennig, A; Quiroz, D; Ramesar, R; Rasgon, N; Reif, A; Ritter, P; Rybakowski, J K; Sagduyu, K; Scippa, A M; Severus, E; Simhandl, C; Stein, D J; Strejilevich, S; Hatim Sulaiman, A; Suominen, K; Tagata, H; Tatebayashi, Y; Torrent, C; Vieta, E; Viswanath, B; Wanchoo, M J; Zetin, M; Whybrow, P C

2015-01-01

Two common approaches to identify subgroups of patients with bipolar disorder are clustering methodology (mixture analysis) based on the age of onset, and a birth cohort analysis. This study investigates if a birth cohort effect will influence the results of clustering on the age of onset, using a large, international database. The database includes 4037 patients with a diagnosis of bipolar I disorder, previously collected at 36 collection sites in 23 countries. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to adjust the data for country median age, and in some models, birth cohort. Model-based clustering (mixture analysis) was then performed on the age of onset data using the residuals. Clinical variables in subgroups were compared. There was a strong birth cohort effect. Without adjusting for the birth cohort, three subgroups were found by clustering. After adjusting for the birth cohort or when considering only those born after 1959, two subgroups were found. With results of either two or three subgroups, the youngest subgroup was more likely to have a family history of mood disorders and a first episode with depressed polarity. However, without adjusting for birth cohort (three subgroups), family history and polarity of the first episode could not be distinguished between the middle and oldest subgroups. These results using international data confirm prior findings using single country data, that there are subgroups of bipolar I disorder based on the age of onset, and that there is a birth cohort effect. Including the birth cohort adjustment altered the number and characteristics of subgroups detected when clustering by age of onset. Further investigation is needed to determine if combining both approaches will identify subgroups that are more useful for research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Dissemination of periodic mammography and patterns of use, by birth cohort, in Catalonia (Spain)

PubMed Central

Rue, Montserrat; Carles, Misericordia; Vilaprinyo, Ester; Martinez-Alonso, Montserrat; Espinas, Josep-Alfons; Pla, Roger; Brugulat, Pilar

2008-01-01

Background In Catalonia (Spain) breast cancer mortality has declined since the beginning of the 1990s. The dissemination of early detection by mammography and the introduction of adjuvant treatments are among the possible causes of this decrease, and both were almost coincident in time. Thus, understanding how these procedures were incorporated into use in the general population and in women diagnosed with breast cancer is very important for assessing their contribution to the reduction in breast cancer mortality. In this work we have modeled the dissemination of periodic mammography and described repeat mammography behavior in Catalonia from 1975 to 2006. Methods Cross-sectional data from three Catalan Health Surveys for the calendar years 1994, 2002 and 2006 was used. The dissemination of mammography by birth cohort was modeled using a mixed effects model and repeat mammography behavior was described by age and survey year. Results For women born from 1938 to 1952, mammography clearly had a period effect, meaning that they started to have periodic mammograms at the same calendar years but at different ages. The age at which approximately 50% of the women were receiving periodic mammograms went from 57.8 years of age for women born in 1938–1942 to 37.3 years of age for women born in 1963–1967. Women in all age groups experienced an increase in periodic mammography use over time, although women in the 50–69 age group have experienced the highest increase. Currently, the target population of the Catalan Breast Cancer Screening Program, 50–69 years of age, is the group that self-reports the highest utilization of periodic mammograms, followed by the 40–49 age group. A higher proportion of women of all age groups have annual mammograms rather than biennial or irregular ones. Conclusion Mammography in Catalonia became more widely implemented during the 1990s. We estimated when cohorts initiated periodic mammograms and how frequently women are receiving them

Within-Cohort Age-Related Differences in Cognitive Functioning

PubMed Central

Salthouse, Timothy A.

2013-01-01

It is widely accepted that the level of cognitive functioning can be influenced by characteristics of the environment that change over time. Many developmental researchers have referred to these influences as cohort effects, and have used year of birth as the basis for determining cohort membership. Furthermore, age-related differences in cognitive functioning are sometimes assumed to be primarily attributable to cohort differences, which implies that differences between birth cohorts should be much larger than differences within birth cohorts. Comparisons of composite scores for five cognitive abilities in different people tested at different ages in different years revealed that within-cohort differences across ages were often as large as between-cohort differences across ages. These results lead to questions about the practice of relying on birth cohort to represent influences on cognitive functioning associated with temporal shifts in characteristics of the environment. PMID:23319401

Tuberculosis retreatment 'others' in comparison with classical retreatment cases; a retrospective cohort review.

PubMed

Nabukenya-Mudiope, Mary G; Kawuma, Herman Joseph; Brouwer, Miranda; Mudiope, Peter; Vassall, Anna

2015-09-02

Many of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa are still largely dependent on microscopy as the mainstay for diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) including patients with previous history of TB treatment. The available guidance in management of TB retreatment cases is focused on bacteriologically confirmed TB retreatment cases leaving out those classified as retreatment 'others'. Retreatment 'others' refer to all TB cases who were previously treated but with unknown outcome of that previous treatment or who have returned to treatment with bacteriologically negative pulmonary or extra-pulmonary TB. This study was conducted in 11 regional referral hospitals (RRHs) serving high burden TB districts in Uganda to determine the profile and treatment success of TB retreatment 'others' in comparison with the classical retreatment cases. A retrospective cohort review of routinely collected National TB and Leprosy Program (NTLP) facility data from 1 January to 31 December 2010. This study uses the term classical retreatment cases to refer to a combined group of bacteriologically confirmed relapse, return after failure and return after loss to follow-up cases as a distinct group from retreatment 'others'. Distribution of categorical characteristics were compared using Chi-squared test for difference between proportions. The log likelihood ratio test was used to assess the independent contribution of type of retreatment, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, age group and sex to the models. Of the 6244 TB cases registered at the study sites, 733 (11.7%) were retreatment cases. Retreatment 'others' constituted 45.5% of retreatment cases. Co-infection with HIV was higher among retreatment 'others' (70.9%) than classical retreatment cases (53.5%). Treatment was successful in 410 (56.2%) retreatment cases. Retreatment 'others' were associated with reduced odds of success (AOR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.22,0.88) compared to classical cases. Lost to follow up was the commonest adverse outcome (38

Associations between excessive adiposity and seroprevalence of herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 among US adults: a population-based age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Su-Hsun; Tzeng, I-Shiang; Hsieh, Tsung-Han; Huang, Yhu-Chering

2016-10-17

Evidence on the association between herpes simplex virus (HSV) and excessive adiposity, such as obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 ) and abdominal obesity (waist circumference (WC) >102 or 88 cm), has been inconsistent. We sought to examine whether age-period-cohort (APC) effects could explain for the observed heterogeneities. Population-based cross-sectional study. Adults aged 20-49 years with available serological data in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in 1999-2012. Obesity and abdominal obesity. In men, excessive adiposity was generally not associated with HSV1 or HSV2 (all p>0.05); however, there were positive correlations between HSV seroprevalence and excessive adiposity in certain age and birth cohort groups. Based on APC analysis, abdominally obese men aged 30-40 years showed a nearly 20% increase in risk for HSV1 seropositivity (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR)=1.18; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.27) as compared with abdominally non-obese men of the same age; there was no such association in men of other age groups. Also, men of a large WC who were born before 1962 or after 1979 had a 28% higher risk for HSV2 seropositivity than those of a normal WC in the same birth cohorts (aPR=1.28, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.54); yet the association did not hold for men in other cohorts (aPR=0.86, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.17). In women, a large WC was correlated with a minimally increased HSV1 seroprevalence (aPR=1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.13) but not with HSV2 seropositivity (aPR=1.13; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.28). Likewise, there were strong associations between abdominal obesity and HSV2 seropositivity in subgroups of women participating in the earliest survey cycle (aPR=1.41, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.78) but not in other survey periods (aPR=0.94, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.03). There was no consistent evidence for strong associations between HSV seropositivity and excessive adiposity in adults. APC analysis results further cautioned the generalisability of previous reports based on 1

Classic conditioning in aged rabbits: delay, trace, and long-delay conditioning.

PubMed

Solomon, P R; Groccia-Ellison, M E

1996-06-01

Young (0.5 years) and aged (2+, 3+, and 4+ years) rabbits underwent acquisition of the classically conditioned nictitating membrane response in a delay (500-ms conditioned stimulus [CS], 400-ms interstimulus interval [ISI]), long-delay (1,000-ms CS, 900-ms ISI), or trace (500-ms CS, 400-ms stimulus-free period) paradigm. Collapsing across age groups, there is a general tendency for animals to acquire trace conditioning more slowly than delay conditioning. Collapsing across conditioning paradigms, there is a general tendency for aged animals to acquire more slowly than younger animals. Of greater significance, however, are the age differences in the different conditioning paradigms. In the delay and long-delay paradigms, significant conditioning deficits first appeared in the 4(+)-year-old group. In the trace conditioning paradigm, significant conditioning deficits became apparent in the 2(+)-year-old animals.

Cohort Differences in Cognitive Aging in the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam.

PubMed

Brailean, Anamaria; Huisman, Martijn; Prince, Martin; Prina, A Matthew; Deeg, Dorly J H; Comijs, Hannie

2016-09-30

This study aims to examine cohort differences in cognitive performance and rates of change in episodic memory, processing speed, inductive reasoning, and general cognitive performance and to investigate whether these cohort effects may be accounted for by education attainment. The first cohort (N = 705) was born between 1920 and 1930, whereas the second cohort (N = 646) was born between 1931 and 1941. Both birth cohorts were aged 65 to 75 years at baseline and were followed up 3 and 6 years later. Data were analyzed using linear mixed models. The later born cohort had better general cognitive performance, inductive reasoning, and processing speed at baseline, but cohort differences in inductive reasoning and general cognitive performance disappeared after adjusting for education. The later born cohort showed steeper decline in processing speed. Memory decline was steeper in the earlier born cohort but only from Time 1 to Time 3 when the same memory test was administered. Education did not account for cohort differences in cognitive decline. The later born cohort showed better initial performance in certain cognitive abilities, but no better preservation of cognitive abilities overtime compared with the earlier born cohort. These findings carry implications for healthy cognitive aging. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

Lung cancer mortality in France. Trend analysis and projection between 1975 and 2012, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

PubMed

Eilstein, Daniel; Uhry, Zoé; Lim, Tek-Ang; Bloch, Juliette

2008-03-01

Lung cancer is currently the most common cancer in the world and as such is an important public health concern. One of the main challenges is to foresee the evolution of trends in lung cancer mortality rates in order to anticipate the future burden of this disease as well as to plan the supply of adequate health care. The aim of this study is to propose a quantification of future lung cancer mortality rates by gender in France until the year 2012. Lung cancer mortality data in France (1978-2002) were extracted from the National Statistics of Death and analyzed by 5-year age-groups and periods, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Between 1978 and 2002, female lung cancer mortality rate rises by 3.3%year(-1). For men, a slow increase is observed until 1988-1992 followed by a declining trend. In 1998-2002, age-standardized mortality rates were, respectively, 45.5 and 7.6 per 100000 for males and for females. By 2008-2012 these figures would reach 40.8 (95% credibility interval (CI): 32.7, 50.0) and 12.1 (CI: 11.7, 12.6) per 100000, respectively, which represents among women a 4.7% annual increase (CI: 4.5, 5.0). Our results highlight the relevance of pursuing public health measures in order to cope more actively with tobacco smoking in the prevention strategy against lung cancer specifically among women.

Quantum approach to classical statistical mechanics.

PubMed

Somma, R D; Batista, C D; Ortiz, G

2007-07-20

We present a new approach to study the thermodynamic properties of d-dimensional classical systems by reducing the problem to the computation of ground state properties of a d-dimensional quantum model. This classical-to-quantum mapping allows us to extend the scope of standard optimization methods by unifying them under a general framework. The quantum annealing method is naturally extended to simulate classical systems at finite temperatures. We derive the rates to assure convergence to the optimal thermodynamic state using the adiabatic theorem of quantum mechanics. For simulated and quantum annealing, we obtain the asymptotic rates of T(t) approximately (pN)/(k(B)logt) and gamma(t) approximately (Nt)(-c/N), for the temperature and magnetic field, respectively. Other annealing strategies are also discussed.

Complex trajectories in a classical periodic potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Alexander G.; Bender, Carl M.

2012-11-01

This paper examines the complex trajectories of a classical particle in the potential V(x) = -cos (x). Almost all the trajectories describe a particle that hops from one well to another in an erratic fashion. However, it is shown analytically that there are two special classes of trajectories x(t) determined only by the energy of the particle and not by the initial position of the particle. The first class consists of periodic trajectories; that is, trajectories that return to their initial position x(0) after some real time T. The second class consists of trajectories for which there exists a real time T such that x(t + T) = x(t) ± 2π. These two classes of classical trajectories are analogous to valence and conduction bands in quantum mechanics, where the quantum particle either remains localized or else tunnels resonantly (conducts) through a crystal lattice. These two special types of trajectories are associated with sets of energies of measure 0. For other energies, it is shown that for long times the average velocity of the particle becomes a fractal-like function of energy.

Trends in lung cancer incidence in Sweden with special reference to period and birth cohorts.

PubMed

Myrdal, G; Lambe, M; Bergström, R; Ekbom, A; Wagenius, G; Ståhle, E

2001-08-01

Sweden has one of the largest population-based cancer registers in the world that provides an opportunity to examine the trend of lung cancer incidence during a 35-year period. The primary aim of the present study was to estimate the effects of birth cohort, year of diagnosis (period), and age on the time trends of lung cancer incidence rates, and to analyze the gender-specific incidence of different histopathological types of lung cancer. Among men the age-standardized incidence rate increased steadily up to 1982, when a peak of 49 cases per 100,000 person-years was reached. Among women the incidence rate was lower and showed a monotonic increase throughout the observation period. The fastest rate of increase was noted among the youngest women. In women, but not in men, there was a steady increase in risk with each successive birth cohort. For both sexes there were large changes in the histopathological distributions of cases. The most notable was a major increase in adenocarcinomas. The overall age-adjusted incidence rate of lung cancer in Sweden has stabilized in men during the past two decades while rates are still increasing in women. In view of the continued high prevalence of smoking among young women, a future definite increase in the overall number of lung cancer cases in women can be expected.

Depressive symptoms in the Belgian population: disentangling age and cohort effects.

PubMed

Brault, Marie-Christine; Meuleman, Bart; Bracke, Piet

2012-06-01

Although the association between age and depression has been previously demonstrated, uncertainty remains because of the confounding relationship existing between age and cohort. A study by Yang (J Health Soc Behav 48(1):16, 2007) has evidenced important cohort effects and age-by-cohort interactions in depressive symptoms among US citizens. A crucial limitation, however, is that this study confines itself to elderly population. The objective of the present study is to bring further clarification to the association between age, cohort membership and depressive symptoms, by analyzing a sample with a wider age range. The Panel Study of Belgian Households is a prospective longitudinal survey, following adults ages 25-74, annually from 1992 to 2002. Missing data were replaced using multiple imputation, allowing for a complete dataset (N = 7,000) at each wave. Respondents were classified into one of five birth cohorts: 1918-1927; 1928-1937; 1938-1947; 1948-1957; 1958-1967. Frequency of depressive symptoms was reported using a modified version of the Health and Daily Living form. Growth curve modeling was used to determine the effect of age and cohort on depression trajectory. All cohorts differed significantly from one another, with recent cohorts always obtaining the highest mean HDL-depression score. The intensity of depressive symptoms increases linearly with age, but significant age-by-cohorts interactions were detected, indicating that the relationship between age and depression varies across cohorts. No evidence of a WW2 effect was found. The association between age and depression has to take cohort membership into account. Cohort replacement effects explain the increase in depression in Belgium.

Increasing Use of Nonmedical Analgesics Among Younger Cohorts in the United States: A Birth Cohort Effect

PubMed Central

Miech, Richard; Bohnert, Amy; Heard, Kennon; Boardman, Jason

2017-01-01

Purpose Nonmedical use of prescription pain drugs (hereafter ‘analgesics’) has increased substantially in recent years. It is not known whether today’s youth are disproportionately driving this increase or, instead, the trend is a general one that has affected cohorts of all ages similarly. To address this question we present the first age-period-cohort analysis of nonmedical use of analgesics. Methods Data come from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a series of annual, nationally-representative, cross-sectional surveys of the U.S. civilian, non-institutionalized population. The analysis focuses on the years 1985 to 2009 and uses the recently developed ‘intrinsic estimator’ algorithm to disentangle age-period-cohort effects. Results Substantial increases in the prevalence of nonmedical analgesics use have occurred across all cohorts and ages in recent years, but this increase is significantly amplified among today’s adolescents. The odds of past-year, nonmedical analgesics use for today’s youngest cohort (born 1980–1994) are higher than would be expected on the basis of their age and broad, historical period influences that have increased use across people of all ages and cohorts. The independent influence of cohort on past-year, nonmedical analgesics use is about 40% higher for today’s youth cohort than any of the cohorts that came before them. This finding is present among men, women, non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics. Conclusions Although nonmedical use of analgesics is evident among all ages, cohorts, and periods, today’s younger cohorts warrant special attention for substance abuse policies and interventions targeted at reversing the increase in nonmedical analgesics use. PMID:23260832

A semi-classical approach to the calculation of highly excited rotational energies for asymmetric-top molecules

PubMed Central

Schmiedt, Hanno; Schlemmer, Stephan; Yurchenko, Sergey N.; Yachmenev, Andrey

2017-01-01

We report a new semi-classical method to compute highly excited rotational energy levels of an asymmetric-top molecule. The method forgoes the idea of a full quantum mechanical treatment of the ro-vibrational motion of the molecule. Instead, it employs a semi-classical Green's function approach to describe the rotational motion, while retaining a quantum mechanical description of the vibrations. Similar approaches have existed for some time, but the method proposed here has two novel features. First, inspired by the path integral method, periodic orbits in the phase space and tunneling paths are naturally obtained by means of molecular symmetry analysis. Second, the rigorous variational method is employed for the first time to describe the molecular vibrations. In addition, we present a new robust approach to generating rotational energy surfaces for vibrationally excited states; this is done in a fully quantum-mechanical, variational manner. The semi-classical approach of the present work is applied to calculating the energies of very highly excited rotational states and it reduces dramatically the computing time as well as the storage and memory requirements when compared to the fullly quantum-mechanical variational approach. Test calculations for excited states of SO2 yield semi-classical energies in very good agreement with the available experimental data and the results of fully quantum-mechanical calculations. PMID:28000807

Music Listening--The Classical Period (1720-1815), Music: 5635.793.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearl, Jesse; Carter, Raymond

This 9-week, Quinmester course of study is designed to teach the principal types of vocal, instrumental, and operatic compositions of the classical period through listening to the styles of different composers and acquiring recognition of their works, as well as through developing fastidious listening habits. The course is intended for those…

Trends in Dementia Incidence in a Birth Cohort Analysis of the Einstein Aging Study.

PubMed

Derby, Carol A; Katz, Mindy J; Lipton, Richard B; Hall, Charles B

2017-11-01

Trends in dementia incidence rates have important implications for planning and prevention. To better understand incidence trends over time requires separation of age and cohort effects, and few prior studies have used this approach. To examine trends in dementia incidence and concomitant trends in cardiovascular comorbidities among individuals aged 70 years or older who were enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study between 1993 and 2015. In this birth cohort analysis of all-cause dementia incidence in persons enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study from October 20, 1993, through November 17, 2015, a systematically recruited, population-based sample of 1348 participants from Bronx County, New York, who were 70 years or older without dementia at enrollment and at least one annual follow-up was studied. Poisson regression was used to model dementia incidence as a function of age, sex, educational level, race, and birth cohort, with profile likelihood used to identify the timing of significant increases or decreases in incidence. Birth year and age. Incident dementia defined by consensus case conference based on annual, standardized neuropsychological and neurologic examination findings, using criteria from the DSM-IV. Among 1348 individuals (mean [SD] baseline age, 78.5 [5.4] years; 830 [61.6%] female; 915 [67.9%] non-Hispanic white), 150 incident dementia cases developed during 5932 person-years (mean [SD] follow-up, 4.4 [3.4] years). Dementia incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts. Incidence per 100 person-years was 5.09 in birth cohorts before 1920, 3.11 in the 1920 through 1924 birth cohorts, 1.73 in the 1925 through 1929 birth cohorts, and 0.23 in cohorts born after 1929. Change point analyses identified a significant decrease in dementia incidence among those born after July 1929 (95% CI, June 1929 to January 1930). The relative rate for birth cohorts before July 1929 vs after was 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04-0.41). Prevalence of stroke and myocardial infarction

New Approaches to the Teaching of the Classics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Masciantonio, Rudolph, Ed.; Weislogel, Stephen, Ed.

This four-part report of the 1971-72 Classical Association of the Atlantic States Working Committee deals with the rationale for new approaches and curriculums for schools and colleges. Implications of the new approaches in teacher education are also teated. The major section treating new model curriculums and approaches includes discussion of:…

Do classic blood biomarkers of JSLE identify active lupus nephritis? Evidence from the UK JSLE Cohort Study.

PubMed

Smith, E M D; Jorgensen, A L; Beresford, M W

2017-10-01

Background Lupus nephritis (LN) affects up to 80% of juvenile-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) patients. The value of commonly available biomarkers, such as anti-dsDNA antibodies, complement (C3/C4), ESR and full blood count parameters in the identification of active LN remains uncertain. Methods Participants from the UK JSLE Cohort Study, aged <16 years at diagnosis, were categorized as having active or inactive LN according to the renal domain of the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group score. Classic biomarkers: anti-dsDNA, C3, C4, ESR, CRP, haemoglobin, total white cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, platelets and immunoglobulins were assessed for their ability to identify active LN using binary logistic regression modeling, with stepAIC function applied to select a final model. Receiver-operating curve analysis was used to assess diagnostic accuracy. Results A total of 370 patients were recruited; 191 (52%) had active LN and 179 (48%) had inactive LN. Binary logistic regression modeling demonstrated a combination of ESR, C3, white cell count, neutrophils, lymphocytes and IgG to be best for the identification of active LN (area under the curve 0.724). Conclusions At best, combining common classic blood biomarkers of lupus activity using multivariate analysis provides a 'fair' ability to identify active LN. Urine biomarkers were not included in these analyses. These results add to the concern that classic blood biomarkers are limited in monitoring discrete JSLE manifestations such as LN.

Cohort-based income gradients in obesity among U.S. adults.

PubMed

Heo, Jongho; Beck, Audrey N; Lin, Shih-Fan; Marcelli, Enrico; Lindsay, Suzanne; Karl Finch, Brian

2018-03-01

No studies have focused on socioeconomic disparities in obesity within and between cohorts. Our objectives were to examine income gradients in obesity between birth-cohorts (inter-cohort variations) and within each birth-cohort (intra-cohort variations) by gender and race/ethnicity. Our sample includes 56,820 white and black adults from pooled, cross-sectional National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1971-2012). We fit a series of logistic hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort models to control for the effects of age and period, simultaneously. Predicted probabilities of obesity by poverty-to-income ratio were estimated and graphed for 5-year cohort groups from 1901-1990. We also stratified this relationship for four gender and racial/ethnic subgroups. Obesity disparities due to income were weaker for post-World War I and II generations, specifically the mid-1920s and the mid-1940s to 1950s cohorts, than for other cohorts. In contrast, we found greater income gradients in obesity among cohorts from the 1930s to mid-1940s and mid-1960s to 1970s. Moreover, obesity disparities due to income across cohorts vary markedly by gender and race/ethnicity. White women with higher income consistently exhibited a lower likelihood of obesity than those with lower income since early 1900s cohorts; whereas, black men with higher income exhibited higher risks of obesity than those with lower income in most cohorts. Our findings suggest that strategies that address race and/or gender inequalities in obesity should be cognizant of significant historical factors that may be unique to cohorts. Period-based approaches that ignore life-course experiences captured in significant cohort-based experiences may limit the utility of policies and interventions. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Economic Stressors and Psychological Distress: Exploring Age Cohort Variation in the Wake of the Great Recession.

PubMed

Brown, Robyn Lewis; Richman, Judith A; Rospenda, Kathleen M

2017-08-01

This study examined processes linking age cohort, economic stressors, coping strategies and two indicators of psychological distress (i.e. depressive symptoms and anxiety symptoms). Structural equation models were conducted utilizing data from a national survey that was undertaken in order to understand life change consequences of the period of economic downturn from 2007 to 2009 known as the Great Recession. Findings revealed that the associations between economic stressors and symptoms of both depression and anxiety were significantly greater for members of the millennial cohort compared with baby boomers. These effects are partly explained by the greater tendency of members of the baby boomer cohort to use active coping strategies. These findings clarify the circumstances in which age matters most for the associations among economy-related stressors, coping strategies and psychological well-being. They highlight how difficult economic circumstances influence the availability of coping strategies and, in turn, psychological well-being-and differently for younger and older age cohorts. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Recipient Age and Mortality Risk after Liver Transplantation: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Chen, Hsiu-Pin; Tsai, Yung-Fong; Lin, Jr-Rung; Liu, Fu-Chao; Yu, Huang-Ping

2016-01-01

The aim of the present large population-based cohort study is to explore the risk factors of age-related mortality in liver transplant recipients in Taiwan. Basic information and data on medical comorbidities for 2938 patients who received liver transplants between July 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, were extracted from the National Health Insurance Research Database on the basis of ICD-9-codes. Mortality risks were analyzed after adjusting for preoperative comorbidities and compared among age cohorts. All patients were followed up until the study endpoint or death. This study finally included 2588 adults and 350 children [2068 (70.4%) male and 870 (29.6%) female patients]. The median age at transplantation was 52 (interquartile range, 43-58) years. Recipients were categorized into the following age cohorts: <20 (n = 350, 11.9%), 20-39 (n = 254, 8.6%), 40-59 (n = 1860, 63.3%), and ≥60 (n = 474, 16.1%) years. In the total population, 428 deaths occurred after liver transplantation, and the median follow-up period was 2.85 years (interquartile range, 1.2-5.5 years). Dialysis patients showed the highest risk of mortality irrespective of age. Further, the risk of death increased with an increase in the age at transplantation. Older liver transplant recipients (≥60 years), especially dialysis patients, have a higher mortality rate, possibly because they have more medical comorbidities. Our findings should make clinicians aware of the need for better risk stratification among elderly liver transplantation candidates.

Geography of breast cancer incidence according to age & birth cohorts.

PubMed

Gregorio, David I; Ford, Chandler; Samociuk, Holly

2017-06-01

Geographic variation in breast cancer incidence across Connecticut was examined according to age and birth cohort -specific groups. We assigned each of 60,937 incident breast cancer cases diagnosed in Connecticut, 1986-2009, to one of 828 census tracts around the state. Global and local spatial statistics estimated rate variation across the state according to age and birth cohorts. We found the global distribution of incidence rates across places to be more heterogeneous for younger women and later birth cohorts. Concurrently, the spatial scan identified more locations with significantly high rates that pertained to larger proportions of at-risk women within these groups. Geographic variation by age groups was more pronounced than by birth cohorts. Geographic patterns of cancer incidence exhibit differences within and across age and birth cohorts. With the continued insights from descriptive epidemiology, our capacity to effectively limit spatial disparities in cancer will improve. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Periodicity in Age-Resolved Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esipov, Sergei

We discuss the interplay between the non-linear diffusion and age-resolved population dynamics. Depending on the age properties of collective migration the system may exhibit continuous joint expansion of all ages or continuous expansion with age segregation. Between these two obvious limiting regimes there is an interesting window of periodic expansion, which has been previously used by us in modeling bacterial colonies of Proteus mirabilis. In order to test whether the age-dependent collective migration leads to periodicity in other systems we performed a Fourier analysis of historical data on ethnic expansions and found multiple co-existing periods of activity.

Increased breast cancer mortality only in the lower education group: age-period-cohort effect in breast cancer mortality by educational level in South Korea, 1983-2012.

PubMed

Bahk, Jinwook; Jang, Sung-Mi; Jung-Choi, Kyunghee

2017-03-31

A steadily increasing pattern of breast cancer mortality has been reported in South Korea since the late 1980s. This paper explored the trends of educational inequalities of female breast cancer mortality between 1983 and 2012 in Korea, and conducted age-period-cohort (APC) analysis by educational level. Age-standardized mortality rates of breast cancer per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Relative index of inequality (RII) for breast cancer mortality was used as an inequality measure. APC analyses were conducted using the Web tool for APC analysis provided by the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. An increasing trend in breast cancer mortality among Korean women between 1983 and 2012 was due to the increased mortality of the lower education groups (i.e., no formal education or primary education and secondary education groups), not the highest education group. The breast cancer mortality was higher in women with a tertiary education than in women with no education or a primary education during 1983-1992, and the reverse was true in 1993-2012. Consequently, RII was changed from positive to negative associations in the early 2000s. The lower education groups had the increased breast cancer mortality and significant cohort and period effects between 1983 and 2012, whereas the highest group did not. APC analysis by socioeconomic position used in this study could provide an important clue for the causes on breast cancer mortality. The long-term monitoring of socioeconomic patterning in breast cancer risk factors is urgently needed.

Lifecourse Activity Participation From Early, Mid, and Later Adulthood as Determinants of Cognitive Aging: The Lothian Birth Cohort 1921

PubMed Central

Pattie, Alison; Deary, Ian J.

2017-01-01

Objectives: To examine potential sensitive periods for activity participation across adulthood to reduce cognitive decline and to determine whether associations persist after accounting for the lifetime stability of cognitive ability. Method: The Lothian Birth Cohort 1921 is a longitudinal study of cognitive aging. Participants were born in 1921 and most completed a mental ability test at the age of 11 years. Cognitive assessments were completed at mean ages 79 (N = 550), 83 (N = 321), 87 (N = 235), and 90 years (N = 129). Participants provided retrospective details of their activity participation for young (20–35 years), mid (40–55 years), and later adulthood (60–75 years), and contemporaneously at age 79. Results: Associations between activity and the level of, and change in, cognitive ability in old age were examined with latent growth curve models. Accounting for demographics and childhood cognitive ability, engagement in leisure activities in midlife was positively associated with cognitive ability level (path coefficient = .32), whereas higher physical activity in later adulthood was associated with less cognitive decline (.27). Discussion: The findings support a lifecourse approach in identifying determinants of cognitive aging; leisure and physical activity during different periods of adulthood may enhance cognitive abilities or reduce decline. PMID:27974473

Cohort Differences in Cognitive Aging and Terminal Decline in the Seattle Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Gerstorf, Denis; Ram, Nilam; Hoppmann, Christiane; Willis, Sherry L.; Schaie, K. Warner

2011-01-01

Life span researchers have long been interested in how and why fundamental aspects of human ontogeny differ between cohorts of people who have lived through different historical epochs. When examined at the same age, later born cohorts are often cognitively and physically fitter than earlier born cohorts. Less is known, however, about cohort differences in the rate of cognitive aging and if, at the very end of life, pervasive mortality-related processes overshadow and minimize cohort differences. We used data on 5 primary mental abilities from the Seattle Longitudinal Study (Schaie, 2005) to compare both age-related and mortality-related changes between earlier born cohorts (1886–1913) and later born cohorts (1914–1948). Our models covary for several individual and cohort differences in central indicators of life expectancy, education, health, and gender. Age-related growth models corroborate and extend earlier findings by documenting level differences at age 70 of up to 0.50 SD and less steep rates of cognitive aging on all abilities between 50 and 80 years of age favoring the later born cohort. In contrast, mortality-related models provide limited support for positive cohort differences. The later born cohort showed steeper mortality-related declines. We discuss possible reasons why often reported positive secular trends in age-related processes may not generalize to the vulnerable segment of the population that is close to death and suggest routes for further inquiry. PMID:21517155

Cohort profile: The lidA Cohort Study—a German Cohort Study on Work, Age, Health and Work Participation

PubMed Central

Hasselhorn, Hans Martin; Peter, Richard; Rauch, Angela; Schröder, Helmut; Swart, Enno; Bender, Stefan; du Prel, Jean-Baptist; Ebener, Melanie; March, Stefanie; Trappmann, Mark; Steinwede, Jacob; Müller, Bernd Hans

2014-01-01

The lidA Cohort Study (German Cohort Study on Work, Age, Health and Work Participation) was set up to investigate and follow the effects of work and work context on the physical and psychological health of the ageing workforce in Germany and subsequently on work participation. Cohort participants are initially employed people subject to social security contributions and born in either 1959 (n = 2909) or 1965 (n = 3676). They were personally interviewed in their homes in 2011 and will be visited every 3 years. Data collection comprises socio-demographic data, work and private exposures, work ability, work and work participation attitudes, health, health-related behaviour, personality and attitudinal indicators. Employment biographies are assessed using register data. Subjective health reports and physical strength measures are complemented by health insurance claims data, where permission was given. A conceptual framework has been developed for the lidA Cohort Study within which three confirmatory sub-models assess the interdependencies of work and health considering age, gender and socioeconomic status. The first set of the data will be available to the scientific community by 2015. Access will be given by the Research Data Centre of the German Federal Employment Agency at the Institute for Employment Research (http://fdz.iab.de/en.aspx). PMID:24618186

What Drives Teacher Engagement: A Study of Different Age Cohorts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guglielmi, Dina; Bruni, Ilaria; Simbula, Silvia; Fraccaroli, Franco; Depolo, Marco

2016-01-01

Despite the growing body of research on work engagement, little is known about what drives work engagement among different age cohorts. This study aims to investigate whether engagement varies across age cohorts and examines the job resources that foster teacher engagement. A questionnaire was distributed to 537 teachers who were employed in…

Age, education and dementia related deaths. The Norwegian Counties Study and The Cohort of Norway.

PubMed

Strand, Bjørn Heine; Langballe, Ellen Melbye; Rosness, Tor A; Bergem, Astrid Liv Mina; Engedal, Knut; Nafstad, Per; Tell, Grethe S; Ormstad, Heidi; Tambs, Kristian; Bjertness, Espen

2014-10-15

An inverse relationship between educational level and dementia has been reported in several studies. In this study we investigated the relationship between educational level and dementia related deaths for cohorts of people all born during 1915-39. The cohorts were followed up from adulthood or old age, taking into account possible confounders and mediating paths. Our study population comprised participants in Norwegian health examination studies in the period 1974-2002; The Counties Study and Cohort of Norway (CONOR). Dementia related deaths were defined as deaths with a dementia diagnosis on the death certificate and linked using the Cause of Death Registry to year 2012. The study included 90,843 participants, 2.06 million person years and 2440 dementia related deaths. Cox regression was used to assess the association between education and dementia related deaths. Both high and middle educational levels were associated with lower dementia related death risk compared to those with low education when follow-up started in adulthood (35-49 years, high versus low education: HR=0.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.50-0.93; 50-69 years, high versus low education: HR=0.52, 95% CI 0.34-0.80). However, when follow-up started at old age (70-80 years) there was no significant association between education and dementia related death. Restricting the study population to those born during a five-year period 1925-29 (the birth cohort overlapping all three age groups), gave similar main findings. The protective effects found for both high and middle educational level compared to low education were robust to adjustment for cardiovascular health and life style factors, suggesting education to be a protective factor for dementia related death. Both high and middle educational levels were associated with decreased dementia related death risk compared with low educational level when follow-up started in adulthood, but no association was observed when follow-up started at old age

Long-Term Outcome of Classic and Incomplete PFAPA (Periodic Fever, Aphthous Stomatitis, Pharyngitis, and Adenitis) Syndrome after Tonsillectomy.

PubMed

Lantto, Ulla; Koivunen, Petri; Tapiainen, Terhi; Renko, Marjo

2016-12-01

To compare the effectiveness of tonsillectomy and the long-term outcome of periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis, and adenitis (PFAPA) syndrome in patients fulfilling the classic diagnostic criteria and in those with regularly recurring fever as the only symptom or with onset of symptoms after age 5 years or both. We reviewed the medical records of 3852 children who underwent tonsillectomy between 1990 and 2007 and identified 108 children who did so because of regularly recurring fevers. The patients were invited to an outpatient visit and were classified into 2 groups: those who met (N = 58) and those who did not meet (N = 50) Thomas diagnostic criteria. We then compared the clinical profile and outcome of PFAPA symptoms after tonsillectomy between the 2 groups. In the group that met Thomas criteria, 97% (56/58) had complete resolution of fever episodes after tonsillectomy; in the group that did not meet Thomas criteria (50/50) had complete resolution of fever episodes after tonsillectomy (P = .25). The clinical profile of the periodic fevers and the occurrence of other illnesses during follow-up were similar in both groups. Thomas criteria identified 56 of 106 patients responding to tonsillectomy. Tonsillectomy was an effective treatment for patients with regularly recurring fever episodes who failed to meet the classic Thomas criteria. We suggest that PFAPA syndrome should be suspected and tonsillectomy considered in children with a late onset of symptoms (>5 years of age) or when fever is the only symptom during the episodes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the age of Lucilia illustris during the intrapuparial period using two approaches: Morphological changes and differential gene expression.

PubMed

Wang, Yu; Gu, Zhi-Ya; Xia, Shui-Xiu; Wang, Jiang-Feng; Zhang, Ying-Na; Tao, Lu-Yang

2018-06-01

Lucilia illustris (Meigen, 1826) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) is a cosmopolitan species of fly that has forensic and medical significance. However, there is no relevant study regarding the determination of the age of this species during the intrapuparial period. In this study, we investigated the changes in both morphology and differential gene expression during intrapuparial development, with an aim to estimate the age of L. illustris during the intrapuparial stage. The overall intrapuparial morphological changes of L. illustris were divided into 12 substages. Structures such as the compound eyes, mouthparts, antennae, thorax, legs, wings, and abdomen, each capable of indicating age during the intrapuparial stage, were observed in detail, and the developmental progression of each of these structures was divided into six to eight stages. We recorded the time range over which each substage or structure appeared. The differential expression of the three genes 15_2, actin, and tbp previously identified for predicting the timing of intrapuparial development was measured during L. illustris metamorphosis. The expression of these genes was quantified by real-time PCR, and the results revealed that these genes can be used to estimate the age of L. illustris during the intrapuparial period, as they exhibit regular changes and temperature dependence. This study provides an important basis for estimating the minimum postmortem interval (PMI min ) in forensic entomology according to changes in intrapuparial development and differential gene expression. Furthermore, combination of the two approaches can generate a more precise PMI min than either approach alone. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uneven transitions: Period- and cohort-related changes in gender attitudes in China, 1995-2007.

PubMed

Shu, Xiaoling; Zhu, Yifei

2012-09-01

This paper analyzes temporal variations in two gender attitudes in China: beliefs about gender equality and perspectives on women's combined work and family roles. It uses the most currently available population series from the 1995, 2001 and 2007 World Value Surveys of 4500 respondents and a series of multilevel cross-classified models to properly estimate period and cohort effects. Attitudes toward women's dual roles manifest neither period nor cohort effects; the population displays a universal high level of acceptance of women's paid employment. Orientations toward gender equality manifest both cohort and period effects: members of the youngest cohort of both sexes hold the most liberal attitudes; the positive effect of college education has increased over time. Attitude toward gender equality in China displays neither a shift toward conservatism nor an over-time trend toward egalitarianism in 1995-2007, a time of rapid economic growth. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early life determinants of frailty in old age: the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study.

PubMed

Haapanen, M J; Perälä, M M; Salonen, M K; Kajantie, E; Simonen, M; Pohjolainen, P; Eriksson, J G; von Bonsdorff, M B

2018-04-12

there is evidence suggesting that several chronic diseases have their origins in utero and that development taking place during sensitive periods may affect the aging process. We investigated whether early life determinants would be associated with frailty in old age. at a mean age of 71 years, 1,078 participants belonging to the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study were assessed for frailty according to the Fried frailty criteria. Early life measurements (birth weight, length, mother body mass index [BMI] and parity) were obtained from birth, child welfare and school health records. Multinomial regression analysis was used to assess the association between early life determinants and frailty in old age. weight, length and BMI at birth were all inversely associated with frailty in old age. A 1 kg increase in birth weight was associated with a lower relative risk ratio (RRR) of frailty (age and sex-adjusted RRR = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.19, 0.82) compared to non-frailty. Associations persisted after adjusting for several confounding factors. Compared to cohort members in the upper middle class, those who as adults worked as manual workers or belonged to the lower middle class, were at an increased risk of frailty. those who were small at birth were at an increased risk of developing frailty in old age, suggesting that frailty is at least partly programmed in early life. A less privileged socioeconomic status in adulthood was associated with an increased risk of frailty in old age.

High resolution stalagmite climate record from the Yucatán Peninsula spanning the Maya terminal classic period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina-Elizalde, Martín; Burns, Stephen J.; Lea, David W.; Asmerom, Yemane; von Gunten, Lucien; Polyak, Victor; Vuille, Mathias; Karmalkar, Ambarish

2010-09-01

The decline of the Classic Maya civilization was complex and geographically variable, and occurred over a ~ 150-year interval, known as the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, C.E. 800-950). Paleoclimate studies based on lake sediments from the Yucatán Peninsula lowlands suggested that drought prevailed during the TCP and was likely an important factor in the disintegration of the Classic Maya civilization. The lacustrine evidence for decades of severe drought in the Yucatán Peninsula, however, does not readily explain the long 150-year socio-political decline of the Classic Maya civilization. Here we present a new, absolute-dated, high-resolution stalagmite δ18O record from the northwest Yucatán Peninsula that provides a much more detailed picture of climate variability during the last 1500 years. Direct calibration between stalagmite δ18O and rainfall amount offers the first quantitative estimation of rainfall variability during the Terminal Classic Period. Our results show that eight severe droughts, lasting from 3 to 18 years, occurred during major depopulation events of Classic Maya city-states. During these droughts, rainfall was reduced by 52% to 36%. The number and short duration of the dry intervals help explain why the TCP collapse of the Mayan civilization occurred over 150 years.

Multi-Cohort Stand Structural Classification: Ground- and LiDAR-based Approaches for Boreal Mixedwood and Black Spruce Forest Types of Northeastern Ontario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttner, Benjamin George

Natural fire return intervals are relatively long in eastern Canadian boreal forests and often allow for the development of stands with multiple, successive cohorts of trees. Multi-cohort forest management (MCM) provides a strategy to maintain such multi-cohort stands that focuses on three broad phases of increasingly complex, post-fire stand development, termed "cohorts", and recommends different silvicultural approaches be applied to emulate different cohort types. Previous research on structural cohort typing has relied upon primarily subjective classification methods; in this thesis, I develop more comprehensive and objective methods for three common boreal mixedwood and black spruce forest types in northeastern Ontario. Additionally, I examine relationships between cohort types and stand age, productivity, and disturbance history and the utility of airborne LiDAR to retrieve ground-based classifications and to extend structural cohort typing from plot- to stand-levels. In both mixedwood and black spruce forest types, stand age and age-related deadwood features varied systematically with cohort classes in support of an age-based interpretation of increasing cohort complexity. However, correlations of stand age with cohort classes were surprisingly weak. Differences in site productivity had a significant effect on the accrual of increasingly complex multi-cohort stand structure in both forest types, especially in black spruce stands. The effects of past harvesting in predictive models of class membership were only significant when considered in isolation of age. As an age-emulation strategy, the three cohort model appeared to be poorly suited to black spruce forests where the accrual of structural complexity appeared to be more a function of site productivity than age. Airborne LiDAR data appear to be particularly useful in recovering plot-based cohort types and extending them to the stand-level. The main gradients of structural variability detected using Li

Adiposity in Children and CVD Risk: ApoB48 Has a Stronger Association With Central Fat Than Classic Lipid Markers.

PubMed

Wilke, Michaelann S; Maximova, Katerina; Henderson, Mélanie; Levy, Emile; Paradis, Gilles; O'Loughlin, Jennifer; Tremblay, Angelo; Proctor, Spencer D

2016-07-01

Atherosclerotic vascular disease begins in childhood and while progression is multifactorial, obesity in early life is an important risk factor for its development. To determine whether fasting apoB48 remnant lipoproteins (relative to classic lipid markers), is elevated with increasing central adiposity over time in a cohort of Canadian children with a family history of obesity. Data were drawn from the ongoing prospective cohort of 630 Caucasian families in Québec, Canada, recruited to assess determinants and effects of childhood obesity (Québec Adiposity and Lifestyle Investigation in Youth [QUALITY]cohort). Children who attended baseline and first followup clinic visits (n =570; age 9.6 y). Trunk fat mass was determined by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Central fat mass index was calculated as CFMI = trunk fat mass/height(2) (kg/m(2)) and groups created (CFMI <1.5; 1.5-3.0; ≥3.0 kg/m(2)) to suggest lower, moderate, or higher central adiposity. Changes over time in outcomes (apoB48, triglyceride and total, low-, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) were compared using paired t test and multiple regression that adjusted for age, sex, and Tanner stage. Classic lipid markers (total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) improved at followup, whereas apoB48 became worse (increased). ApoB48 increased with increasing central adiposity, highest (37%) in children who transitioned from lower- to moderate-CFMI groups (ΔapoB48 = 1.5 μg/mL). For every 1 kg/m(2) increase in central adiposity over the 2-y period, an increase in apoB48 was 14-fold greater among children with lower baseline CFMI, compared with higher CFMI. Increased fasting concentrations of apoB48 may be representative of changes in adiposity at lower levels of central fat (early periods of risk).

Civic involvement across the life course: moving beyond age-based assumptions.

PubMed

Hirshorn, Barbara A; Settersten, Richard A

2013-09-01

This paper critically examines factors which, over time and context, are linked to civic involvement for individuals, age groups, and cohorts. We begin by critiquing current age- and cohort-related civic involvement canons and norms by extracting and evaluating rationales for why such activity in two particular periods of life-early adulthood and old age-is assumed to be good for individuals and for society. Then, employing elements of a life course perspective, we consider an alternative approach to civic involvement-one that emphasizes dynamic trajectories and the significant degree of variability within individuals, age groups and cohorts resulting in a very different set of assumptions about individual choice and activity. We close by discussing the utility of this alternative approach for research, policy, and practice regarding civic involvement. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AURORA: bariatric surgery registration in women of reproductive age - a multicenter prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Jans, Goele; Matthys, Christophe; Bel, Sarah; Ameye, Lieveke; Lannoo, Matthias; Van der Schueren, Bart; Dillemans, Bruno; Lemmens, Luc; Saey, Jean-Pierre; van Nieuwenhove, Yves; Grandjean, Pascale; De Becker, Ben; Logghe, Hilde; Coppens, Marc; Roelens, Kristien; Loccufier, Anne; Verhaeghe, Johan; Devlieger, Roland

2016-07-29

The expansion of the obesity epidemic is accompanied with an increase in bariatric procedures, in particular in women of reproductive age. The weight loss induced by the surgery is believed to reverse the negative impact of overweight and obesity on female reproduction, however, research is limited to in particular retrospective cohort studies and a growing number of small case-series and case-(control) studies. AURORA is a multicenter prospective cohort study. The main objective is to collect long-term data on reproductive outcomes before and after bariatric surgery and in a subsequent pregnancy. Women aged 18-45 years are invited to participate at 4 possible inclusion moments: 1) before surgery, 2) after surgery, 3) before 15 weeks of pregnancy and 4) in the immediate postpartum period (day 3-4). Depending on the time of inclusion, data are collected before surgery (T1), 3 weeks and 3, 6, 12 or x months after surgery (T2-T5) and during the first, second and third trimester of pregnancy (T6-T8), at delivery (T9) and 6 weeks and 6 months after delivery (T10-T11). Online questionnaires are send on the different measuring moments. Data are collected on contraception, menstrual cycle, sexuality, intention of becoming pregnant, diet, physical activity, lifestyle, psycho-social characteristics and dietary supplement intake. Fasting blood samples determine levels of vitamin A, D, E, K, B-1, B-12 and folate, albumin, total protein, coagulation parameters, magnesium, calcium, zinc and glucose. Participants are weighted every measuring moment. Fetal ultrasounds and pregnancy course and complications are reported every trimester of pregnancy. Breastfeeding is recorded and breast milk composition in the postpartum period is studied. AURORA is a multicenter prospective cohort study extensively monitoring women before undergoing bariatric surgery until a subsequent pregnancy and postpartum period. Retrospectively registered (July 2015 - NCT02515214 ).

Trends in breast, ovarian and cervical cancer incidence in Mumbai, India over a 30-year period, 1976–2005: an age–period–cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Dhillon, P K; Yeole, B B; Dikshit, R; Kurkure, A P; Bray, F

2011-01-01

Background: Demographic, socioeconomic and cultural changes in India have increased longevity, delayed childbearing, decreased parity and resulted in a more westernised lifestyle, contributing to the increasing burden of cancer, especially among women. Methods: We evaluated secular changes in the incidence of breast, cervical and ovarian cancer in Mumbai women aged 30–64 between 1976 and 2005. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated and presented by site and calendar period. An age–period–cohort (APC) analysis quantified recent time trends and the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was obtained from the drift parameter, expressing the linear time trend common to both calendar period and birth cohort. Results: Over the 30-year study period, the age-standardised rates significantly increased for breast cancer (EAPC: 1.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0, 1.3)), significantly decreased for cervical cancer (EAPC: −1.8% (95% CI: −2.0, −1.6)) and there was no statistically significant change for ovarian cancer (EAPC: 0.3% (95% CI: −0.1, 0.6)). For breast and cervical cancer, the best-fitting model was the APC model. Conclusions: The rates of breast, cervical and ovarian cancer remain low in comparison with western countries, and the divergent trends of breast (increasing) and cervical cancer (decreasing) in Mumbai were similar to those observed in several other Asian countries. The changing risk profile in successive generations – improved education, higher socioeconomic status, later age at marriage and at first child, and lower parity – may in combination partially explain the diverging generational changes in breast and cervical cancer in Mumbai in the last decades. PMID:21829198

The role of under-employment and unemployment in recent birth cohort effects in Australian suicide.

PubMed

Page, Andrew; Milner, Allison; Morrell, Stephen; Taylor, Richard

2013-09-01

High suicide rates evident in Australian young adults during an epidemic period in the 1990s appear to have been sustained in older age-groups in the subsequent decade. This period also coincides with changes in employment patterns in Australia. This study investigates age, period, and birth cohort effects in Australian suicide over the 20th century, with particular reference to the period subsequent to the 1990s youth suicide epidemic in young males. Period- and cohort-specific trends in suicide were examined for 1907-2010 based on descriptive analysis of age-specific suicide rates and a series of age-period-cohort (APC) models using Poisson regression. Under-employment rates (those employed part-time seeking additional hours of work) and unemployment rates (those currently seeking employment) for the latter part of this time series (1978-2010) were also examined and compared with period- and cohort-specific trends in suicide. A significant increasing birth cohort effect in male suicide rates was evident in birth cohorts born after 1970-74, after adjusting for the effects age and period. An increasing birth cohort effect was also evident in female suicide rates, but was of a lesser magnitude. Increases in male cohort-specific suicide rates were significantly correlated with increases in cohort-specific under-employment and unemployment rates. Birth cohorts that experienced the peak of the suicide epidemic during the 1990s have continued to have higher suicide rates than cohorts born in earlier epochs. This increase coincides with changes to a labour force characterised by greater 'flexibility' and 'casualised' employment, especially in younger aged cohorts. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age Cohort and Health Service Utilization Among Gay Men.

PubMed

Green, Daniel C; Goldbach, Jeremy T; Raymond, Henry F

2018-05-01

Gay men report unique health disparities and service utilization trends compared to their heterosexual peers including a lack of health-care participation which may lead to chronic health conditions. Limited research has been conducted analyzing group differences among gay men such as the influence of one's age cohort on disparities. The aim of this study was to examine the association age cohort has on health service utilization among gay men. A sample of 383 self-identified gay men was collected by the San Francisco Department of Public Health. Older men were less likely to have visited a medical provider in the past 12 months compared to middle-aged men (OR = 0.10; 95% CI [2.47, 39.8]) and younger men (OR = 0.35; 95% CI [1.28, 10.42]). However, older men were more likely to have a usual source of medical care compared to younger men (OR = 4.0; 95% CI [.05, .84]). Age cohort differences in health-care service utilization appear to exist among gay men. This study highlights additional areas for exploration including the impact HIV and socioeconomic status have on health-seeking behavior and health service utilization.

Quasi-classical approaches to vibronic spectra revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karsten, Sven; Ivanov, Sergei D.; Bokarev, Sergey I.; Kühn, Oliver

2018-03-01

The framework to approach quasi-classical dynamics in the electronic ground state is well established and is based on the Kubo-transformed time correlation function (TCF), being the most classical-like quantum TCF. Here we discuss whether the choice of the Kubo-transformed TCF as a starting point for simulating vibronic spectra is as unambiguous as it is for vibrational ones. Employing imaginary-time path integral techniques in combination with the interaction representation allowed us to formulate a method for simulating vibronic spectra in the adiabatic regime that takes nuclear quantum effects and dynamics on multiple potential energy surfaces into account. Further, a generalized quantum TCF is proposed that contains many well-established TCFs, including the Kubo one, as particular cases. Importantly, it also provides a framework to construct new quantum TCFs. Applying the developed methodology to the generalized TCF leads to a plethora of simulation protocols, which are based on the well-known TCFs as well as on new ones. Their performance is investigated on 1D anharmonic model systems at finite temperatures. It is shown that the protocols based on the new TCFs may lead to superior results with respect to those based on the common ones. The strategies to find the optimal approach are discussed.

Access to Resources in Different Age-Cohorts: Implications for Activity Level, Loneliness, and Life Satisfaction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malmberg, Bo

This thesis uses a resource theoretical approach to study and analyze social psychological phenomena in different age-cohorts. Resources are seen as any asset the person has access to in a certain situation. Access to resources are crucial to meet the demands of the surrounding environment. When the resources are sufficient to cope with the…

Alcohol-Related Diagnoses in Hospital Admissions for All Causes Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults: Trends and Cohort Differences From 1993 to 2010.

PubMed

Sacco, Paul; Unick, George Jay; Kuerbis, Alexis; Koru, A Güneş; Moore, Alison A

2015-12-01

This aim of this study was to characterize trends in alcohol-related hospital admissions among middle-aged and older adults from 1993 to 2010 in relation to age, gender, race, and cohort membership. This study utilized repeated cross-sectional data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Using alcohol-related classified admissions, yearly rates and longitudinal trends of alcohol-related inpatient hospitalizations based on age, period, birth cohort, gender, and race were estimated. Among those aged 45 and older, admissions rose from an estimated 610,634 to more than 1,134,876, and rates of any alcohol-related diagnosis also increased from 1993 to 2010. Rates for men were consistently higher than women, and rates for Blacks were higher than Whites. Age was associated with decreasing rates, but post-World War II cohorts displayed higher rates over time. Rates of alcohol-related admissions are increasing among adults above age 45, which may be a function of cohort effects. Training the health care workforce is crucial to respond to this trend. © The Author(s) 2015.

Living Long and Well: Prospects for a Personalized Approach to the Medicine of Ageing.

PubMed

Fuellen, Georg; Schofield, Paul; Flatt, Thomas; Schulz, Ralf-Joachim; Boege, Fritz; Kraft, Karin; Rimbach, Gerald; Ibrahim, Saleh; Tietz, Alexander; Schmidt, Christian; Köhling, Rüdiger; Simm, Andreas

2016-01-01

Research into ageing and its underlying molecular basis enables us to develop and implement targeted interventions to ameliorate or cure its consequences. However, the efficacy of interventions often differs widely between individuals, suggesting that populations should be stratified or even individualized. Large-scale cohort studies in humans, similar systematic studies in model organisms as well as detailed investigations into the biology of ageing can provide individual validated biomarkers and mechanisms, leading to recommendations for targeted interventions. Human cohort studies are already ongoing, and they can be supplemented by in silico simulations. Systematic studies in animal models are made possible by the use of inbred strains or genetic reference populations of mice. Combining the two, a comprehensive picture of the various determinants of ageing and 'health span' can be studied in detail, and an appreciation of the relevance of results from model organisms to humans is emerging. The interactions between genotype and environment, particularly the psychosocial environment, are poorly studied in both humans and model organisms, presenting serious challenges to any approach to a personalized medicine of ageing. To increase the success of preventive interventions, we argue that there is a pressing need for an individualized evaluation of interventions such as physical exercise, nutrition, nutraceuticals and calorie restriction mimetics as well as psychosocial and environmental factors, separately and in combination. The expected extension of the health span enables us to refocus health care spending on individual prevention, starting in late adulthood, and on the brief period of morbidity at very old age. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

HINDU-MUSLIM FERTILITY DIFFERENTIAL IN INDIA: A COHORT APPROACH.

PubMed

Pasupuleti, Samba Siva Rao; Pathak, Prasanta; Jatrana, Santosh

2017-03-01

Hindus and Muslims together account for 94% of the population of India. The fertility differential between these two religious groups is a sensitive and hotly debated issue in political and academic circles. However, the debate is mostly based on a period approach to fertility change, and there have been some problems with the reliability of period fertility data. This study investigated cohort fertility patterns among Hindus and Muslims and the causes of the relatively higher level of fertility among Muslims. Data from the three National Family Health Surveys conducted in India since the early 1990s were analysed using a six-parameter special form of the Gompertz model and multiple linear regression models. The results show a gap of more than 1.3 children per woman between those Muslim and Hindu women who ended/will end their reproductive period in the calendar years 1993 to 2025. The socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of Muslims explain 31.2% of the gap in fertility between Muslims and Hindus, while the desire for more children among Muslims explains an additional 18.2% of the gap in fertility.

Trends in colorectal cancer incidence: a period and birth-cohort analysis in a well-defined French population.

PubMed

Chauvenet, Marion; Cottet, Vanessa; Lepage, Côme; Jooste, Valérie; Faivre, Jean; Bouvier, Anne-Marie

2011-06-30

France stands among high-risk areas for colorectal cancer. Different trends in CRC incidence are reported around the world. The aim of this study was to provide temporal trends in CRC incidence over a 30-year period in a French well-defined population. Between 1976 and 2005, 17,028 new cases were registered by the Burgundy digestive cancer registry. The mean variations in age-standardized incidence rates were estimated using a Poisson regression adjusted for age for each gender and location. The cumulative risk by birth cohort of developing a cancer over the age range 0-74 years was estimated using an age-cohort model. Incidence rates for right and left colon cancers increased more rapidly in males (respectively +11.7% and +10.3% on average by 5-year period) than in females (respectively +5.9% and +6.1%). It remained stable for sigmoid cancers in males (-0.1%) and decreased in females (-5.2%). It also decreased for rectal cancers both in males (-2.7%) and in females (-2.0%). The cumulative risk increased from 3.9% for males born around 1900 to 4.9% for those born around 1930 and then slightly decreased (4.5% among those born around 1950). It remained at the same level for females born around 1900 (2.7%) as for those born around 1930 (2.7%) and then slightly increased (2.9%) for those born around 1950. For right colon cancers, the cumulative risk increased strikingly in successive birth cohorts from 0.53% to 1.2% in males and 0.55% to 0.77% in females. The corresponding cumulative risks for the left colon were 0.24% and 0.42% in males and 0.14% and 0.29% in females. For sigmoid cancer, they decreased from 1.59% to 1.08% in males, and 0.88% to 0.80% in females. Temporal variations in incidence rates of colorectal cancers differed according to subsite, suggesting different aetiological factors and implications for diagnosis and screening strategies. Total colonoscopy must be the preferred strategy in high-risk groups or after a positive faecal occult blood test.

COHORT EFFECTS OF SUICIDE MORTALITY ARE SEX SPECIFIC IN THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED HONG KONG CHINESE POPULATION, 1976-2010.

PubMed

Chung, Roger Y; Yip, Benjamin H K; Chan, Sandra S M; Wong, Samuel Y S

2016-06-01

To examine temporal variations of age, period, and cohort on suicide mortality rate in Hong Kong (HK) from 1976 to 2010, and speculate the macroenvironmental mechanisms of the observed trends. Poisson age-period-cohort modeling was used to delineate the effects of age, period, and cohort on suicide mortality. Analysis by sex was also conducted to examine if gender difference exists for suicidal behaviours. Age-cohort model provides the best fit to the mortality data, implying that the cohort effect is likely to explain more of the contributions to HK's suicide mortality pattern than the period effect. Risk of suicide mortality increases nonlinearly with age and accelerates after age 65-69 for both sexes. Moreover, the cohort effects differ between the sexes-risk of mortality increases continually for men born after 1961, but no change is observed for women since the 1941 cohort. With increased risk of suicide mortality in younger cohorts and the age effect of suicide mortality, we may see future increase in suicide mortality as these younger cohorts age. Further studies are needed to clarify plausible associations between broader sociohistorical changes in the population impacting psychological risk factors and suicidal behaviour to better inform suicide prevention strategies. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Investigating β-adrenergic-induced cardiac hypertrophy through computational approach: classical and non-classical pathways.

PubMed

Khalilimeybodi, Ali; Daneshmehr, Alireza; Sharif-Kashani, Babak

2018-07-01

The chronic stimulation of β-adrenergic receptors plays a crucial role in cardiac hypertrophy and its progression to heart failure. In β-adrenergic signaling, in addition to the well-established classical pathway, Gs/AC/cAMP/PKA, activation of non-classical pathways such as Gi/PI3K/Akt/GSK3β and Gi/Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK contribute in cardiac hypertrophy. The signaling network of β-adrenergic-induced hypertrophy is very complex and not fully understood. So, we use a computational approach to investigate the dynamic response and contribution of β-adrenergic mediators in cardiac hypertrophy. The proposed computational model provides insights into the effects of β-adrenergic classical and non-classical pathways on the activity of hypertrophic transcription factors CREB and GATA4. The results illustrate that the model captures the dynamics of the main signaling mediators and reproduces the experimental observations well. The results also show that despite the low portion of β2 receptors out of total cardiac β-adrenergic receptors, their contribution in the activation of hypertrophic mediators and regulation of β-adrenergic-induced hypertrophy is noticeable and variations in β1/β2 receptors ratio greatly affect the ISO-induced hypertrophic response. The model results illustrate that GSK3β deactivation after β-adrenergic receptor stimulation has a major influence on CREB and GATA4 activation and consequent cardiac hypertrophy. Also, it is found through sensitivity analysis that PKB (Akt) activation has both pro-hypertrophic and anti-hypertrophic effects in β-adrenergic signaling.

Modern versus Tradition: Are There Two Different Approaches to Reading of the Confucian Classics?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Chung-yi

2016-01-01

How to read the Confucian Classics today? Scholars with philosophical training usually emphasize that the philosophical approach, in comparison with the classicist and historical ones, is the best way to read the Confucian Classics, for it can dig out as much intellectual resources as possible from the classical texts in order to show their modern…

Depression following fracture in women: a study of age-matched cohorts

PubMed Central

Williams, Lana J; Berk, Michael; Henry, Margaret J; Stuart, Amanda L; Brennan, Sharon L; Jacka, Felice N; Pasco, Julie A

2014-01-01

Objectives High levels of disability, functional impairment and mortality are independently associated with fracture and depression, however the relationship between fracture and depression is uncertain. The aim of this study was to investigate whether fracture is associated with subsequent depressive symptoms in a population-based sample of women. Design A study of age-matched fracture versus non-fracture cohorts of women. Setting Barwon Statistical Division, southeastern Australia. Participants Two samples of women aged ≥35 years were drawn from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study (GOS). The fracture cohort included women with incident fracture identified from radiology reports and the non-fracture cohort were randomly selected from the electoral roll during 1994–1996. Outcome measure Symptoms of depression for women with and without fracture during the 12-month period 2000–2001 were identified by self-report questionnaire based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria. Results A total of 296 women with fracture (12 hip, 48 vertebral, 91 wrist/forearm, 17 upper arm, 7 pelvis, 11 rib, 62 lower leg and 48 other fractures) and 590 women without fracture were included. Associations between fracture and depression differed between younger (≤65 years) and older (>65 years) women. Age and weight-adjusted odds ratio for depression following fracture among younger women was 0.62 (0.35 to 1.11, p=0.12) and 3.33 (1.24 to 8.98, p=0.02) for older women. Further adjustment for lifestyle factors did not affect the results. Conclusions This study demonstrated that differences in mood status exist between older and younger women following fracture and that fracture is associated with increased depression in older women. Assessment of mood status in both the short and long term following fracture in the elderly seems justified, with early detection and treatment likely to result in improved outcomes. PMID:24561497

European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia Registry: Recruitment and prescreening approach for a longitudinal cohort and prevention trials.

PubMed

Vermunt, Lisa; Veal, Colin D; Ter Meulen, Lea; Chrysostomou, Charalambos; van der Flier, Wiesje; Frisoni, Giovanni B; Guessous, Idris; Kivipelto, Miia; Marizzoni, Moira; Martinez-Lage, Pablo; Molinuevo, José Luis; Porteous, David; Ritchie, Karen; Scheltens, Philip; Ousset, Pierre-Jean; Ritchie, Craig W; Luscan, Gerald; Brookes, Anthony J; Visser, Pieter Jelle

2018-06-01

It is a challenge to find participants for Alzheimer's disease (AD) prevention trials within a short period of time. The European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia Registry (EPAD) aims to facilitate recruitment by preselecting subjects from ongoing cohort studies. This article introduces this novel approach. A virtual registry, with access to risk factors and biomarkers for AD through minimal data sets of ongoing cohort studies, was set up. To date, ten cohorts have been included in the EPAD. Around 2500 participants have been selected, using variables associated with the risk for AD. Of these, 15% were already recruited in the EPAD longitudinal cohort study, which serves as a trial readiness cohort. This study demonstrates that a virtual registry can be used for the preselection of participants for AD studies. Copyright © 2018 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent variational approach in terms of squeezed coherent states: Implication to semi-classical approximation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsue, Yasuhiko

1994-01-01

A general framework for time-dependent variational approach in terms of squeezed coherent states is constructed with the aim of describing quantal systems by means of classical mechanics including higher order quantal effects with the aid of canonicity conditions developed in the time-dependent Hartree-Fock theory. The Maslov phase occurring in a semi-classical quantization rule is investigated in this framework. In the limit of a semi-classical approximation in this approach, it is definitely shown that the Maslov phase has a geometric nature analogous to the Berry phase. It is also indicated that this squeezed coherent state approach is a possible way to go beyond the usual WKB approximation.

Quantum cryptography approaching the classical limit.

PubMed

Weedbrook, Christian; Pirandola, Stefano; Lloyd, Seth; Ralph, Timothy C

2010-09-10

We consider the security of continuous-variable quantum cryptography as we approach the classical limit, i.e., when the unknown preparation noise at the sender's station becomes significantly noisy or thermal (even by as much as 10(4) times greater than the variance of the vacuum mode). We show that, provided the channel transmission losses do not exceed 50%, the security of quantum cryptography is not dependent on the channel transmission, and is therefore incredibly robust against significant amounts of excess preparation noise. We extend these results to consider for the first time quantum cryptography at wavelengths considerably longer than optical and find that regions of security still exist all the way down to the microwave.

Effects of Extrinsic Mortality on the Evolution of Aging: A Stochastic Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Shokhirev, Maxim Nikolaievich; Johnson, Adiv Adam

2014-01-01

The evolutionary theories of aging are useful for gaining insights into the complex mechanisms underlying senescence. Classical theories argue that high levels of extrinsic mortality should select for the evolution of shorter lifespans and earlier peak fertility. Non-classical theories, in contrast, posit that an increase in extrinsic mortality could select for the evolution of longer lifespans. Although numerous studies support the classical paradigm, recent data challenge classical predictions, finding that high extrinsic mortality can select for the evolution of longer lifespans. To further elucidate the role of extrinsic mortality in the evolution of aging, we implemented a stochastic, agent-based, computational model. We used a simulated annealing optimization approach to predict which model parameters predispose populations to evolve longer or shorter lifespans in response to increased levels of predation. We report that longer lifespans evolved in the presence of rising predation if the cost of mating is relatively high and if energy is available in excess. Conversely, we found that dramatically shorter lifespans evolved when mating costs were relatively low and food was relatively scarce. We also analyzed the effects of increased predation on various parameters related to density dependence and energy allocation. Longer and shorter lifespans were accompanied by increased and decreased investments of energy into somatic maintenance, respectively. Similarly, earlier and later maturation ages were accompanied by increased and decreased energetic investments into early fecundity, respectively. Higher predation significantly decreased the total population size, enlarged the shared resource pool, and redistributed energy reserves for mature individuals. These results both corroborate and refine classical predictions, demonstrating a population-level trade-off between longevity and fecundity and identifying conditions that produce both classical and non-classical

Dental health and alimentation among the Quintana Roo Mayas: coastal and inland sites of the classic-postclassic periods.

PubMed

Ortega-Muñoz, Allan

2015-01-01

The goal of this study is to compare both dental and skeletal stress indicators of the Classic and Postclassic coastal and inland sites of the State of Quintana Roo, Mexico. The hypothesis is that coastal populations will show osteo and dental pathologies characteristic of a primarily marine food source combined with a diet of horticultural resources. This kind of alimentation provides people with less environmental stress and therefore a better health status. However, over time, in the Postclassic period, the health conditions deteriorated among both coastal and inland inhabitants, according to the hierarchization of the society, militarization, and commercial activities of all the coastal sites. The sample was drawn from 19 sites (196 individuals of both sexes) from the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as from inland localities within the boundaries of Quintana Roo. Both dental and osteological stress indicators were analyzed, and crosstabs were applied for absolute and relative frequencies and their corresponding χ(2) and F Fisher analyses. The osteopathological index of the coastal and inland sites of the Classic period were compared over time between the Classic coastal inhabitants and the Postclassic coastal inhabitants so as to understand how life conditions changed over time. The Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio, with the crosstabs controlling for sex (males and females), was also carried out. There are low frequencies of dental pathologies and anemia present in both the coastal and inland populations of Quintana Roo in the Classic and Postclassic times. Only the presence of periostitis is highly common in both types of site, and this is the only indicator with significant differences. The dental pathologies, anemia and periostitis, in general, present a slight upward trend in both the coastal and inland populations over time. The coastal populations have fewer frequencies of the above than the inland sites whilst, in the Postclassic period, both the

A Synthetic Approach to the Transfer Matrix Method in Classical and Quantum Physics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pujol, O.; Perez, J. P.

2007-01-01

The aim of this paper is to propose a synthetic approach to the transfer matrix method in classical and quantum physics. This method is an efficient tool to deal with complicated physical systems of practical importance in geometrical light or charged particle optics, classical electronics, mechanics, electromagnetics and quantum physics. Teaching…

Teasing apart the relations between age, birth cohort, and vocational interests.

PubMed

Leuty, Melanie E; Hansen, Jo-Ida C

2014-04-01

Empirical evidence supports that aging is related to differences in work attitudes and motivation (Inceoglu, Segers, & Bartram, 2012; Kooij, de Lange, Jansen, Kanfer, & Kikkers, 2011; Ng & Feldman, 2008, 2010), but little research has explored the relations between age and vocational interests. Furthermore, recent studies of age and work attitudes suggest that generational experiences (i.e., birth year) may account for age differences in the workplace (Inceoglu et al., 2012; Ng & Feldman, 2008, 2010), which in turn suggests that researchers need to incorporate both age and birth cohort effects in their designs. Thus, this study was designed to explore the relations of age at the time of testing and birth year to vocational interests using a sample of adults (N = 1,792) collected over a period of 3 decades. As expected, age was not a significant predictor of most interests, but birth year also was not found to predict most interests, with the significant prediction of Realistic interests by both age and birth year being the exception. Gender, however, significantly predicted most areas of interests. Neither age nor gender moderated any relationships between birth year and interests. Results suggest that birth year and age were minimally related to interests as all effect sizes were small. Discussion of the results illustrates the need for further research on this issue and also offers considerations for attracting and retaining different generations of workers in light of the findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Age-Period-Cohort approaches to back-calculation of cancer incidence rate

PubMed Central

Oh, Cheongeun; Holford, Theodore R.

2016-01-01

A compartment model for cancer incidence and mortality is developed in which healthy subjects may develop cancer, and subsequently die of cancer or another cause. In order to adequately represent the experience of a defined population, it is also necessary to allow for subjects who are diagnosed at death, as well as subjects who migrate and are subsequently lost to follow-up. Expressions are derived for the number of cancer deaths as a function of the number of incidence cases and vice versa, which allows for the use of mortality statistics to obtain estimates of incidence using survival information. In addition, the model can be used to obtain estimates of cancer prevalence, which is useful for health care planning. The method is illustrated using data on lung cancer among males in Connecticut. PMID:25715831

Age-Based Methods to Explore Time-Related Variables in Occupational Epidemiology Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janice P. Watkins, Edward L. Frome, Donna L. Cragle

2005-08-31

Although age is recognized as the strongest predictor of mortality in chronic disease epidemiology, a calendar-based approach is often employed when evaluating time-related variables. An age-based analysis file, created by determining the value of each time-dependent variable for each age that a cohort member is followed, provides a clear definition of age at exposure and allows development of diverse analytic models. To demonstrate methods, the relationship between cancer mortality and external radiation was analyzed with Poisson regression for 14,095 Oak Ridge National Laboratory workers. Based on previous analysis of this cohort, a model with ten-year lagged cumulative radiation doses partitionedmore » by receipt before (dose-young) or after (dose-old) age 45 was examined. Dose-response estimates were similar to calendar-year-based results with elevated risk for dose-old, but not when film badge readings were weekly before 1957. Complementary results showed increasing risk with older hire ages and earlier birth cohorts, since workers hired after age 45 were born before 1915, and dose-young and dose-old were distributed differently by birth cohorts. Risks were generally higher for smokingrelated than non-smoking-related cancers. It was difficult to single out specific variables associated with elevated cancer mortality because of: (1) birth cohort differences in hire age and mortality experience completeness, and (2) time-period differences in working conditions, dose potential, and exposure assessment. This research demonstrated the utility and versatility of the age-based approach.« less

Detecting critical periods in larval flatfish populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, R. Christopher; Witting, David A.; Lewis, Stephen J.

2001-06-01

We evaluate the time-course of deaths and evidence of periods of increased mortality (i.e., critical periods) in laboratory populations of larval flatfish. First, we make the distinction between age-at-death and abundance-at-time data for fish larvae, the latter being typical in studies of natural populations. Next, we describe an experimental investigation of age- and temperature-dependent mortality in larval winter flounder, Pseudopleuronectes americanus. The survivorship curves of these populations differed significantly in both the magnitude and time-course of mortality among the four water temperatures evaluated (7, 10, 13, and 16°C). Mortality was highest in the cooler temperatures and concentrated in the third quarter of larval life, largely concurrent with settlement of surviving members of the cohort. Among the statistical methods for analysing survival data, the proportional-hazards model with time-varying covariates proved best at capturing the patterns of age-specific mortalities. We conclude that fair appraisals of recruitment hypotheses which are predicated on periods of high, age-specific mortality that vary with environmental conditions (e.g., Hjort's critical period hypothesis) will require: (1) data that are based on age, not time; (2) data that are of higher temporal resolution than commonly available at present and (3) analytical methods that are sensitive to irregularities in survivorship curves. We suggest four research approaches for evaluating critical periods in nature.

Spatiotemporal study of elderly suicide in Korea by age cohort.

PubMed

Joo, Y

2017-01-01

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern and spatial diffusion of elderly suicide by age cohort, in Korea. The research investigated the elderly suicide rates of the 232 municipal units in South Korea between 2001 and 2011. The Gi* score, which is a spatially weighted indicator of area attributes, was used to identify hot spots and the spatiotemporal pattern of elderly suicide in the nation during the last 10 years. The spatial Markov matrix and spatial dynamic panel data model were employed to identify and estimate the diffusion effect. The suicide rate among elderly individuals 75 years and older was substantially higher than the rate for those between 65 and 74 years of age; however, the spatial patterns of the suicide clusters were similar between the two groups. From 2001 to 2011, the spatial distribution of elderly suicide hot spots differed each year. For both age cohorts, elderly suicide hot spots developed around the north area of South Korea in 2001 and moved to the mid-east area and the mid-western coastal area over 10 years. The spatial Markov matrix indicates that the change in the suicide rate of one area was affected by the suicide rates of neighbouring areas from the previous year, which suggests that suicide increase in one area inflates a neighbouring area's suicide rate over time. Using a spatial dynamic panel data model, elderly suicide diffusion effects were found to be statistically significant for both age cohorts even after economic and demographic indicators and a time variable are included. For individuals 75 years and older, the diffusion effect appeared to be larger. This study demonstrates that elderly suicide can spread spatially over time in both age cohorts. Thus, it is necessary to design a place-based and age-differentiated intervention policy that precisely considers the spatial diffusion of elderly suicide. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Frequency of EBV associated classical Hodgkin lymphoma decreases over a 54-year period in a Brazilian population.

PubMed

Campos, Antonio Hugo Jose Froes Marques; Moreira, Adriana; Ribeiro, Karina Braga; Paes, Roberto Pinto; Zerbini, Maria Claudia; Aldred, Vera; de Souza, Carmino Antonio; Neto, Cristovam Scapulatempo; Soares, Fernando Augusto; Vassallo, Jose

2018-01-30

The epidemiology of classical Hodgkin lymphoma varies significantly in populations with different socioeconomic conditions. Among other changes, improvement in such conditions leads to a reduction in the association with EBV infection and predominance of the nodular sclerosis subtype. This study provides an overview of the epidemiology of 817 cases of classical Hodgkin lymphoma diagnosed in five reference hospitals of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, over 54 years (1954-2008). The cases were distributed in 3 periods (1954-1979; 1980-1999; and 2000-2008). EBV-positive cases decreased from 87% to 46%. In children and adolescents (<15 years) and in young adults (15-45 years), EBV-positive cases decreased respectively from 96% to 64%, and from 85% to 32%. The percentage of male patients declined from 80% to 58%. In older patients (>45 years), the decrease in EBV infection was not significant. Nodular Sclerosis was the most common subtype in all periods. These results support the hypothesis that, in the Brazilian State of Sao Paulo, classical Hodgkin lymphoma has changed and now shows characteristics consistent with Pattern III observed in populations that experienced a similar socioeconomic transition.

Life expectancy in a birth cohort of Boxers followed up from weaning to 10 years of age.

PubMed

van Hagen, Marjan A E; Ducro, Bart J; van den Broek, Jan; Knol, Bart W

2005-09-01

To determine mortality rate over time, risk factors for death, and heritability of life expectancy in Boxers. 1,733 purebred Boxers born in The Netherlands between January 1994 and March 1995. Dogs were followed up from weaning (ie, 49 days of age) to 10 years of age through use of a written questionnaire sent to owners every 6 months. Mortality rate over time, risk factors potentially associated with death, and heritability of life expectancy were examined by use of a proportional hazards model based on the Weibull distribution. stimated mortality rate during the 10-year study period for this birth cohort of Boxers was 45%. The probability of surviving to 5 years of age was 88%; the probability of surviving to 10 years of age was 55%. Estimated effective heritability of life expectancy was 0.076, meaning that in this population, an estimated 76% of the observed variation in life expectancy could be attributed to genetic differences among dogs that were passed from parents to their offspring. Results suggest that cumulative incidence of death from weaning to 10 years of age among this birth cohort of Boxers was 45%. The estimated heritability of life expectancy suggested that life expectancy can be improved by use of selective breeding.

Active aging - resilience and external support as modifiers of the disablement outcome: AGNES cohort study protocol.

PubMed

Rantanen, Taina; Saajanaho, Milla; Karavirta, Laura; Siltanen, Sini; Rantakokko, Merja; Viljanen, Anne; Rantalainen, Timo; Pynnönen, Katja; Karvonen, Anu; Lisko, Inna; Palmberg, Lotta; Eronen, Johanna; Palonen, Eeva-Maija; Hinrichs, Timo; Kauppinen, Markku; Kokko, Katja; Portegijs, Erja

2018-05-02

Population aging increases the need for knowledge on positive aspects of aging, and contributions of older people to their own wellbeing and that of others. We defined active aging as an individual's striving for elements of wellbeing with activities as per their goals, abilities and opportunities. This study examines associations of health, health behaviors, health literacy and functional abilities, environmental and social support with active aging and wellbeing. We will develop and validate assessment methods for physical activity and physical resilience suitable for research on older people, and examine their associations with active aging and wellbeing. We will examine cohort effects on functional phenotypes underlying active aging and disability. For this population-based study, we plan to recruit 1000 participants aged 75, 80 or 85 years living in central Finland, by drawing personal details from the population register. Participants are interviewed on active aging, wellbeing, disability, environmental and social support, mobility, health behavior and health literacy. Physical activity and heart rate are monitored for 7 days with wearable sensors. Functional tests include hearing, vision, muscle strength, reaction time, exercise tolerance, mobility, and cognitive performance. Clinical examination by a nurse and physician includes an electrocardiogram, tests of blood pressure, orthostatic regulation, arterial stiffness, and lung function, as well as a review of chronic and acute conditions and prescribed medications. C-reactive protein, small blood count, cholesterol and vitamin D are analyzed from blood samples. Associations of factors potentially underlying active aging and wellbeing will be studied using multivariate methods. Cohort effects will be studied by comparing test results of physical and cognitive functioning with results of a cohort examined in 1989-90. The current study will renew research on positive gerontology through the novel approach to

Validity of gestational age estimates by last menstrual period and neonatal examination compared to ultrasound in Vietnam.

PubMed

Deputy, Nicholas P; Nguyen, Phuong H; Pham, Hoa; Nguyen, Son; Neufeld, Lynnette; Martorell, Reynaldo; Ramakrishnan, Usha

2017-01-11

Accurate estimation of gestational age is important for both clinical and public health purposes. Estimates of gestational age using fetal ultrasound measurements are considered most accurate but are frequently unavailable in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of last menstrual period and Farr neonatal examination estimates of gestational age, compared to ultrasound estimates, in a large cohort of women in Vietnam. Data for this analysis come from a randomized, placebo-controlled micronutrient supplementation trial in Vietnam. We analyzed 912 women with ultrasound and prospectively-collected last menstrual period estimates of gestational age and 685 women with ultrasound and Farr estimates of gestational age. We used the Wilcoxon signed rank sum test to assess differences in gestational age estimated by last menstrual period or Farr examination compared to ultrasound and computed the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to quantify agreement between methods. We computed the Kappa coefficient (κ) to quantify agreement in preterm, term and post-term classification. The median gestational age estimated by ultrasound was 273.9 days. Gestational age was slightly overestimated by last menstrual period (median 276.0 days, P < 0.001) and more greatly overestimated by Farr examination (median 286.7 days, P < 0.001). Gestational age estimates by last menstrual period and ultrasound were moderately correlated (ICC = 0.78) and concordant (CCC = 0.63), whereas gestational age estimates by Farr examination and ultrasound were weakly correlated (ICC = 0.26) and concordant (CCC = 0.05). Last menstrual period and ultrasound estimates of gestational age were within ± 14 days for 88.4% of women; Farr and ultrasound estimates were within ± 14 days for 55.8% of women. Last menstrual period and ultrasound estimates of gestational age had higher

Botulinum Toxin Dosing Trends in Spasmodic Dysphonia Over a 20-year Period.

PubMed

Namin, Arya W; Christopher, Kara M; Eisenbeis, John F

2017-01-01

The study aims to (1) identify the botulinum toxin (BTX) dosing trend in a cohort of patients who received at least 20 injections for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia (ADSD), (2) describe two distinct BTX dosing trends in treating ADSD (a "classic" dosing trend that initially decreases before stabilizing, and a "fluctuating" dosing trend), and (3) determine if patients with the "classic" dosing trend differed in age or in dosing intervals from those with the "fluctuating" dosing trend. This is a retrospective case series. Of 149 patients who received a total of 2484 BTX injections for the treatment of spasmodic dysphonia in 1993-2013, 49 patients received at least 20 injections. The BTX dose and the interval between doses were recorded. The mean dose of injections 1-20 was determined. The age at initial injection, initial dose, and interval in days between treatments were compared for the "fluctuating" and "classic" groups. The cohort exhibits a significant decrease in dose during the first 10-15 injections. The "fluctuating" group had a significantly shorter interval between injections (mean interval = 97.09 days, SD = 29.41; mean interval = 136.90 days, SD = 43.76, P = 0.002). The mean age at initial dose was not significantly different between the "classic" and "fluctuating" groups. The average BTX dose of patients with ADSD who receive long-term injections significantly decreases during the initial 10-15 injections before stabilizing. Patients who exhibit the "fluctuating" dosing pattern have a significantly shorter interval between injections than those with the "classic" dosing pattern. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of familial classical Hodgkin lymphoma by relationship, histology, age, and sex: a joint study from five Nordic countries.

PubMed

Kharazmi, Elham; Fallah, Mahdi; Pukkala, Eero; Olsen, Jörgen H; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Sundquist, Kristina; Tretli, Steinar; Hemminki, Kari

2015-10-22

We aimed to provide the familial risk of classical Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) by relationship, histology, age at diagnosis, and sex. A cohort of 57,475 first-degree relatives of 13,922 HL patients diagnosed between 1955 and 2009 in 5 European countries was observed for HL incidence. The overall lifetime cumulative risk (CR) of HL in first-degree relatives of a patient with HL was 0.6%, which represents a threefold (standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 3.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-3.9) increased risk over the general population risk. The risk in siblings (6.0-fold; 95% CI, 4.8- to 7.4-fold) was significantly higher than in parents and/or children (2.1-fold; 95% CI, 1.6- to 2.6-fold). Very high lifetime risk of HL was found for those with multiple affected first-degree relatives (13-fold; 95% CI, 2.8- to 39-fold) and for same-sex twins (57-fold; 95% CI, 21- to 125-fold). We found high familial risks between some concordant histologic subtypes of HL such as lymphocyte-rich (81-fold; 95% CI, 30- to 177-fold) and nodular sclerosis (4.6-fold; 95% CI, 2.9- to 7.0-fold) and also between some discordant subtypes. The familial risk in sisters (9.4-fold; 95% CI, 5.9- to 14-fold) was higher than in brothers (4.5-fold; 95% CI, 2.9- to 6.7-fold) or unlike-sex siblings (5.9-fold; 95% CI, 4.3- to 8.1-fold). The lifetime risk of HL was higher when first-degree relatives were diagnosed at early ages (before age 30 years). This study provides tangible absolute risk estimates for relatives of HL patients, which can be used as a sex-, age-, and family history-based risk calculator for classical HL by oncologists and genetic counselors. © 2015 by The American Society of Hematology.

Interprofessional education in aged-care facilities: Tensions and opportunities among undergraduate health student cohorts.

PubMed

Annear, Michael; Walker, Kim; Lucas, Peter; Lo, Amanda; Robinson, Andrew

2016-09-01

This article examines the reflective discourses of medical, nursing, and paramedic students participating in interprofessional education (IPE) activities in the context of aged-care clinical placements. The intent of the research is to explore how students engage with their interprofessional colleagues in an IPE assessment and care planning activity and elucidate how students configure their role as learners within the context of a non-traditional aged-care training environment. Research participants included cohorts of volunteer medical (n = 61), nursing (n = 46), and paramedic (n = 20) students who were on clinical placements at two large teaching aged-care facilities in Tasmania, Australia, over a period of 18 months. A total of 39 facilitated focus group discussions were undertaken with cohorts of undergraduate student volunteers from three health professions between February 2013 and October 2014. Thematic analysis of focus group transcripts was assisted by NVIVO software and verified through secondary coding and member checking procedures. With an acceptable level of agreement across two independent coders, four themes were identified from student focus group transcripts that described the IPE relations and perceptions of the aged-care environment. Emergent themes included reinforcement of professional hierarchies, IPE in aged care perceived as mundane and extraneous, opportunities for reciprocal teaching and learning, and understanding interprofessional roles. While not all students can be engaged with IPE activities in aged care, our evidence suggests that within 1 week of clinical placements there is a possibility to develop reciprocal professional relations, affirm a positive identity within a collaborative healthcare team, and support the health of vulnerable older adults with complex care needs. These important clinical learnings support aged-care-based IPE as a potentially powerful context for undergraduate learning in the 21st Century.

Cohort Differences in Cognitive Aging and Terminal Decline in the Seattle Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerstorf, Denis; Ram, Nilam; Hoppmann, Christiane; Willis, Sherry L.; Schaie, K. Warner

2011-01-01

Life span researchers have long been interested in how and why fundamental aspects of human ontogeny differ between cohorts of people who have lived through different historical epochs. When examined at the same age, later born cohorts are often cognitively and physically fitter than earlier born cohorts. Less is known, however, about cohort…

Family Forest Owner Characteristics Shaped by Life Cycle, Cohort, and Period Effects

Treesearch

Sarah M. Butler; Brett J. Butler; Marla Markowski-Lindsay

2017-01-01

Understanding differences and similarities among family forest owners is important in the context of forest land conservation. This study assesses similarities and differences in landowners by analyzing life cycle effects, cohort differences, and period-specific events that shape people's attitudes and behaviors towards their forestland over time. Using data...

There is no age limit for methadone: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Data from the US indicates that methadone-maintained populations are aging, with an increase of patients aged 50 or older. Data from European methadone populations is sparse. This retrospective cohort study sought to evaluate the age trends and related developments in the methadone population of Basel-City, Switzerland. Methods The study included methadone patients between April 1, 1995 and March 31, 2003. Anonymized data was taken from the methadone register of Basel-City. For analysis of age distributions, patient samples were split into four age categories from '20-29 years' to '50 years and over'. Cross-sectional comparisons were performed using patient samples of 1996 and 2003. Results Analysis showed a significant increase in older patients between 1996 and 2003 (p < 0.001). During that period, the percentage of patients aged 50 and over rose almost tenfold, while the proportion of patients aged under 30 dropped significantly from 52.8% to 12.3%. The average methadone dose (p < 0.001) and the 1-year retention rate (p < 0.001) also increased significantly. Conclusions Findings point to clear trends in aging of methadone patients in Basel-City which are comparable, although less pronounced, to developments among US methadone populations. Many unanswered questions on medical, psychosocial and health economic consequences remain as the needs of older patients have not yet been evaluated extensively. However, older methadone patients, just as any other patients, should be accorded treatment appropriate to their medical condition and needs. Particular attention should be paid to adequate solutions for persons in need of care. PMID:21592331

HOW THE U.S. PRISON BOOM HAS CHANGED THE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRISON POPULATION*

PubMed Central

PORTER, LAUREN C.; BUSHWAY, SHAWN D.; TSAO, HUI-SHIEN; SMITH, HERBERT L.

2017-01-01

This article provides a demographic exposition of the changes in the U.S prison population during the period of mass incarceration that began in the late twentieth century. By drawing on data from the Survey of Inmates in State Correctional Facilities (1974–2004) for inmates 17–72 years of age (N = 336), we show that the age distribution shifted upward dramatically: Only 16 percent of the state prison population was 40 years old or older in 1974; by 2004, this percentage had doubled to 33 percent with the median age of prisoners rising from 27 to 34 years old. By using an estimable function approach, we find that the change in the age distribution of the prison population is primarily a cohort effect that is driven by the “enhanced” penal careers of the cohorts who hit young adulthood—the prime age of both crime and incarceration—when substance use was at its peak. Period-specific factors (e.g., proclivity for punishment and incidence of offense) do matter, but they seem to play out more across the life cycles of persons most affected in young adulthood (cohort effects) than across all age groups at one point in time (period effects). PMID:28936228

Confirming the cognition of rising scores: Fox and Mitchum (2013) predicts violations of measurement invariance in series completion between age-matched cohorts.

PubMed

Fox, Mark C; Mitchum, Ainsley L

2014-01-01

The trend of rising scores on intelligence tests raises important questions about the comparability of variation within and between time periods. Descriptions of the processes that mediate selection of item responses provide meaningful psychological criteria upon which to base such comparisons. In a recent paper, Fox and Mitchum presented and tested a cognitive theory of rising scores on analogical and inductive reasoning tests that is specific enough to make novel predictions about cohort differences in patterns of item responses for tests such as the Raven's Matrices. In this paper we extend the same proposal in two important ways by (1) testing it against a dataset that enables the effects of cohort to be isolated from those of age, and (2) applying it to two other inductive reasoning tests that exhibit large Flynn effects: Letter Series and Word Series. Following specification and testing of a confirmatory item response model, predicted violations of measurement invariance are observed between two age-matched cohorts that are separated by only 20 years, as members of the later cohort are found to map objects at higher levels of abstraction than members of the earlier cohort who possess the same overall level of ability. Results have implications for the Flynn effect and cognitive aging while underscoring the value of establishing psychological criteria for equating members of distinct groups who achieve the same scores.

Cohort differences in Big Five personality factors over a period of 25 years.

PubMed

Smits, Iris A M; Dolan, Conor V; Vorst, Harrie C M; Wicherts, Jelte M; Timmerman, Marieke E

2011-06-01

The notion of personality traits implies a certain degree of stability in the life span of an individual. But what about generational effects? Are there generational changes in the distribution or structure of personality traits? This article examines cohort changes on the Big Five personality factors Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness to Experience, among first-year psychology students in The Netherlands, ages 18 to 25 years, between 1982 and 2007. Because measurement invariance of a personality test is essential for a sound interpretation of cohort differences in personality, we first assessed measurement invariance with respect to cohort for males and females separately on the Big Five personality factors, as measured by the Dutch instrument Five Personality Factors Test. Results identified 11 (females) and 2 (males) biased items with respect to cohort, out of a total of 70 items. Analyzing the unbiased items, results indicated small linear increases over time in Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness and small linear decreases over time in Neuroticism. No clear patterns were found on the Openness to Experience factor. Secondary analyses on students from 1971 to 2007 of females and males of different ages together revealed linear trends comparable to those in the main analyses among young adults between 1982 onward. The results imply that the broad sociocultural context may affect personality factors. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Rediscovering the Classics: The Project Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Townsend, Ruth; Lubell, Marcia

Focusing on seven classics of literature that are most challenging for teachers and students, but which are also a part of the high school literary canon, this book shares ways to create a learner-centered classroom for the study of literature. For each of the seven classics, the book "walks teachers through" the teaching-learning…

Reproductive period, endogenous estrogen exposure and dementia incidence among women in Latin America and China; A 10/66 population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Prince, Martin J; Acosta, Daisy; Guerra, Mariella; Huang, Yueqin; Jimenez-Velazquez, Ivonne Z; Llibre Rodriguez, Juan J; Salas, Aquiles; Sosa, Ana Luisa; Chua, Kia-Chong; Dewey, Michael E; Liu, Zhaorui; Mayston, Rosie; Valhuerdi, Adolfo

2018-01-01

Exposure to endogenous estrogen may protect against dementia, but evidence remains equivocal. Such effects may be assessed more precisely in settings where exogenous estrogen administration is rare. We aimed to determine whether reproductive period (menarche to menopause), and other indicators of endogenous estrogen exposure are inversely associated with dementia incidence. Population-based cohort studies of women aged 65 years and over in urban sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico and China. Sociodemographic and risk factor questionnaires were administered to all participants, including ages at menarche, birth of first child, and menopause, and parity, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 dementia, and mortality, three to five years later. 9,428 women participated at baseline, with 72-98% responding by site. The 'at risk' cohort comprised 8,466 dementia-free women. Mean age varied from 72.0 to 75.4 years, lower in rural than urban sites and in China than in Latin America. Mean parity was 4.1 (2.4-7.2 by site), generally higher in rural than urban sites. 6,854 women with baseline reproductive period data were followed up for 26,463 person years. There were 692 cases of incident dementia, and 895 dementia free deaths. Pooled meta-analysed fixed effects, per year, for reproductive period (Adjusted Sub-Hazard Ratio [ASHR] 1.001, 95% CI 0.988-1.015) did not support any association with dementia incidence, with no evidence for effect modification by APOE genotype. No association was observed between incident dementia and; ages at menarche, birth of first child, and menopause: nulliparity; or index of cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure. Greater parity was positively associated with incident dementia (ASHR 1.030, 95% CI 1.002-1.059, I2 = 0.0%). We found no evidence to support the theory that natural variation in cumulative exposure to endogenous oestrogens across the reproductive period influences

Reproductive period, endogenous estrogen exposure and dementia incidence among women in Latin America and China; A 10/66 population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Acosta, Daisy; Guerra, Mariella; Jimenez-Velazquez, Ivonne Z.; Salas, Aquiles; Sosa, Ana Luisa; Valhuerdi, Adolfo

2018-01-01

Background Exposure to endogenous estrogen may protect against dementia, but evidence remains equivocal. Such effects may be assessed more precisely in settings where exogenous estrogen administration is rare. We aimed to determine whether reproductive period (menarche to menopause), and other indicators of endogenous estrogen exposure are inversely associated with dementia incidence. Methods Population-based cohort studies of women aged 65 years and over in urban sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico and China. Sociodemographic and risk factor questionnaires were administered to all participants, including ages at menarche, birth of first child, and menopause, and parity, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 dementia, and mortality, three to five years later. Results 9,428 women participated at baseline, with 72–98% responding by site. The ‘at risk’ cohort comprised 8,466 dementia-free women. Mean age varied from 72.0 to 75.4 years, lower in rural than urban sites and in China than in Latin America. Mean parity was 4.1 (2.4–7.2 by site), generally higher in rural than urban sites. 6,854 women with baseline reproductive period data were followed up for 26,463 person years. There were 692 cases of incident dementia, and 895 dementia free deaths. Pooled meta-analysed fixed effects, per year, for reproductive period (Adjusted Sub-Hazard Ratio [ASHR] 1.001, 95% CI 0.988–1.015) did not support any association with dementia incidence, with no evidence for effect modification by APOE genotype. No association was observed between incident dementia and; ages at menarche, birth of first child, and menopause: nulliparity; or index of cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure. Greater parity was positively associated with incident dementia (ASHR 1.030, 95% CI 1.002–1.059, I2 = 0.0%). Conclusions We found no evidence to support the theory that natural variation in cumulative exposure to endogenous

Food-addiction scale measurement in 2 cohorts of middle-aged and older women.

PubMed

Flint, Alan J; Gearhardt, Ashley N; Corbin, William R; Brownell, Kelly D; Field, Alison E; Rimm, Eric B

2014-03-01

Excess weight is a major threat to public health. An addiction-like tendency toward certain foods may contribute to overeating. We aimed to describe the prevalence and associated characteristics in relation to a food-addiction scale in middle-aged and older women. We examined the prevalence and associated characteristics of a food-addiction scale measure in a cross-sectional analysis of 134,175 women participating in 2 ongoing prospective cohort studies of US nurses. Overall, 7839 (5.8%) of the women surveyed met the criteria for food addiction measured by using the modified Yale Food Addiction Scale. The prevalence of food addiction was 8.4% in the younger cohort of women aged 45-64 y and 2.7% in the older cohort of women aged 62-88 y. In the multivariate model, body mass index (BMI; in kg/m²) ≥ 35.0 (compared with 18.5-22.9) was associated with food addiction, a prevalence ratio (PR) of 15.83 (95% CI: 12.58, 19.91) in the younger cohort of women, and a PR of 18.41 (95% CI: 11.63, 29.14) in the older cohort of women. Several other demographic characteristics and other factors were associated with the food-addiction measure in both cohorts of women. To our knowledge, for the first time in a large, US-based population of women, we documented the prevalence of food addiction by using a novel measurement scale in middle-aged and older women. The results may provide insight into the strong association between behavioral attributes of food consumption and the development of obesity.

Incidence of infants born small- and large-for-gestational-age in an Italian cohort over a 20-year period and associated risk factors.

PubMed

Chiavaroli, Valentina; Castorani, Valeria; Guidone, Paola; Derraik, José G B; Liberati, Marco; Chiarelli, Francesco; Mohn, Angelika

2016-04-26

We assessed the incidence of infants born small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) in an Italian cohort over 20 years (1993-2013). Furthermore, we investigated maternal factors associated with SGA and LGA births. A retrospective review of obstetric records was performed on infants born in Chieti (Italy) covering every 5(th) year over a 20-year period, specifically examining data for 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, and 2013. Infants with birthweight <10(th) percentile were defined as SGA, and those with birthweight >90(th) percentile as LGA. Data collected included newborn anthropometry, birth (multiple vs singleton), maternal anthropometry, previous miscarriage, gestational diabetes, hypertension, and smoking during pregnancy. There were a pooled total of 5896 live births recorded across the 5 selected years. The number of SGA (+60.6 %) and LGA (+90.2 %) births increased considerably between 1993 and 2013. However, there were no marked changes in the incidence of SGA or LGA births (8.3 % and 10.8 % in 1993 versus 7.6 % and 11.7 % in 2013, respectively). Maternal factors associated with increased risk of SGA infants included hypertension, smoking, and previous miscarriage (all p < 0.05), while greater pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational diabetes were risk factors for LGA births (all p < 0.05). There was an increase in the number of SGA and LGA births in Chieti over the last two decades, but there was little change in incidence over time. Most maternal factors associated with increased odds of SGA and LGA births were modifiable, thus incidence could be reduced by targeted interventions.

Ageing, social class and common mental disorders: longitudinal evidence from three cohorts in the West of Scotland.

PubMed

Green, M J; Benzeval, M

2011-03-01

Understanding how common mental disorders such as anxiety and depression vary with socio-economic circumstances as people age can help to identify key intervention points. However, much research treats these conditions as a single disorder when they differ significantly in terms of their disease burden. This paper examines the socio-economic pattern of anxiety and depression separately and longitudinally to develop a better understanding of their disease burden for key social groups at different ages. The Twenty-07 Study has followed 4510 respondents from three cohorts in the West of Scotland for 20 years and 3846 respondents had valid data for these analyses. Hierarchical repeated-measures models were used to investigate the relationship between age, social class and the prevalence of anxiety and depression over time measured as scores of 8 or more out of 21 on the relevant subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Social class differences in anxiety and depression widened with age. For anxiety there was a nonlinear decrease in prevalence with age, decreasing more slowly for those from manual classes compared to non-manual, whereas for depression there was a non-linear increase in prevalence with age, increasing more quickly for those from manual classes compared to non-manual. This relationship is robust to cohort, period and attrition effects. The more burdensome disorder of depression occurs more frequently at ages where socio-economic inequalities in mental health are greatest, representing a 'double jeopardy' for older people from a manual class.

Whole-Genome Sequencing of a Healthy Aging Cohort.

PubMed

Erikson, Galina A; Bodian, Dale L; Rueda, Manuel; Molparia, Bhuvan; Scott, Erick R; Scott-Van Zeeland, Ashley A; Topol, Sarah E; Wineinger, Nathan E; Niederhuber, John E; Topol, Eric J; Torkamani, Ali

2016-05-05

Studies of long-lived individuals have revealed few genetic mechanisms for protection against age-associated disease. Therefore, we pursued genome sequencing of a related phenotype-healthy aging-to understand the genetics of disease-free aging without medical intervention. In contrast with studies of exceptional longevity, usually focused on centenarians, healthy aging is not associated with known longevity variants, but is associated with reduced genetic susceptibility to Alzheimer and coronary artery disease. Additionally, healthy aging is not associated with a decreased rate of rare pathogenic variants, potentially indicating the presence of disease-resistance factors. In keeping with this possibility, we identify suggestive common and rare variant genetic associations implying that protection against cognitive decline is a genetic component of healthy aging. These findings, based on a relatively small cohort, require independent replication. Overall, our results suggest healthy aging is an overlapping but distinct phenotype from exceptional longevity that may be enriched with disease-protective genetic factors. VIDEO ABSTRACT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the order of magnitude of outcomes in single-arm cohorts through systematic comparison with corresponding cohorts: An example from the AMOS study

PubMed Central

Hamre, Harald J; Glockmann, Anja; Tröger, Wilfried; Kienle, Gunver S; Kiene, Helmut

2008-01-01

Background When a therapy has been evaluated in the first clinical study, the outcome is often compared descriptively to outcomes in corresponding cohorts receiving other treatments. Such comparisons are often limited to selected studies, and often mix different outcomes and follow-up periods. Here we give an example of a systematic comparison to all cohorts with identical outcomes and follow-up periods. Methods The therapy to be compared (anthroposophic medicine, a complementary therapy system) had been evaluated in one single-arm cohort study: the Anthroposophic Medicine Outcomes Study (AMOS). The five largest AMOS diagnosis groups (A-cohorts: asthma, depression, low back pain, migraine, neck pain) were compared to all retrievable corresponding cohorts (C-cohorts) receiving other therapies with identical outcomes (SF-36 scales or summary measures) and identical follow-up periods (3, 6 or 12 months). Between-group differences (pre-post difference in an A-cohort minus pre-post difference in the respective C-cohort) were divided with the standard deviation (SD) of the baseline score of the A-cohort. Results A-cohorts (5 cohorts with 392 patients) were similar to C-cohorts (84 cohorts with 16,167 patients) regarding age, disease duration, baseline affection and follow-up rates. A-cohorts had ≥ 0.50 SD larger improvements than C-cohorts in 13.5% (70/517) of comparisons; improvements of the same order of magnitude (small or minimal differences: -0.49 to 0.49 SD) were found in 80.1% of comparisons; and C-cohorts had ≥ 0.50 SD larger improvements than A-cohorts in 6.4% of comparisons. Analyses stratified by diagnosis had similar results. Sensitivity analyses, restricting the comparisons to C-cohorts with similar study design (observational studies), setting (primary care) or interventions (drugs, physical therapies, mixed), or restricting comparisons to SF-36 scales with small baseline differences between A- and C-cohorts (-0.49 to 0.49 SD) also had similar results

Happiness and social determinants across age cohorts in Taiwan.

PubMed

Hsu, Hui-Chuan; Chang, Wen-Chiung; Chong, Young-Sook; An, Jeong Shin

2016-09-01

The purpose of this study was to examine happiness and social determinants across age cohorts in Taiwan. The data were obtained from the 2011 Taiwan Social Change Survey (aged 18 +, n = 2,199). The social determinants of happiness included socioeconomic status and social connection. Happiness was not different across the age groups. Receiving less family support, less formal support, more social trust and more control over life were significant for the younger group. Being married and having more social participation were significant for the middle-aged. Receiving less family support and having a higher economic status were significant for the older group. © The Author(s) 2015.

How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

PubMed

Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

2016-01-01

Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

Evolution of illustrations in anatomy: a study from the classical period in Europe to modern times.

PubMed

Ghosh, Sanjib Kumar

2015-01-01

Illustrations constitute an essential element of learning anatomy in modern times. However it required a significant evolutionary process spread over centuries, for illustrations to achieve the present status in the subject of anatomy. This review article attempts to outline the evolutionary process by highlighting on the works of esteemed anatomists in a chronological manner. Available literature suggests that illustrations were not used in anatomy during the classical period when the subject was dominated by the descriptive text of Galen. Guido da Vigevano was first to use illustrations in anatomy during the Late Middle Ages and this concept developed further during the Renaissance period when Andreas Vesalius pioneered in illustrations becoming an indispensable tool in conveying anatomical details. Toward later stages of the Renaissance period, Fabricius ab Aquapendente endeavored to restrict dramatization of anatomical illustrations which was a prevalent trend in early Renaissance. During the 18th century, anatomical artwork was characterized by the individual styles of prominent anatomists leading to suppression of anatomical details. In the 19th century, Henry Gray used illustrations in his anatomical masterpiece that focused on depicting anatomical structures and were free from any artistic style. From early part of the 20th century medical images and photographs started to complement traditional handmade anatomical illustrations. Computer technology and advanced software systems played a key role in the evolution of anatomical illustrations during the late 20th century resulting in new generation 3D image datasets that are being used in the 21st century in innovative formats for teaching and learning anatomy. © 2014 American Association of Anatomists.

Non-classical nuclei and growth kinetics of Cr precipitates in FeCr alloys during ageing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yulan; Hu, Shenyang Y.; Zhang, Lei

2014-01-10

In this manuscript, we quantitatively calculated the thermodynamic properties of critical nuclei of Cr precipitates in FeCr alloys. The concentration profiles of the critical nuclei and nucleation energy barriers were predicted by the constrained shrinking dimer dynamics (CSDD) method. It is found that Cr concentration distribution in the critical nuclei strongly depend on the overall Cr concentration as well as temperature. The critical nuclei are non-classical because the concentration in the nuclei is smaller than the thermodynamic equilibrium value. These results are in agreement with atomic probe observation. The growth kinetics of both classical and non-classical nuclei was investigated bymore » the phase field approach. The simulations of critical nucleus evolution showed a number of interesting phenomena: 1) a critical classical nucleus first shrinks toward its non-classical nucleus and then grows; 2) a non-classical nucleus has much slower growth kinetics at its earlier growth stage compared to the diffusion-controlled growth kinetics. 3) a critical classical nucleus grows faster at the earlier growth stage than the non-classical nucleus. All of these results demonstrate that it is critical to introduce the correct critical nuclei in order to correctly capture the kinetics of precipitation.« less

Social Origin and Graduation Age: A Cohort Comparison of Danish University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klausen, Trond Beldo

2016-01-01

This paper investigates whether social origin has an impact on graduation age among university students. A large number of social background factors are applied on a large data set of 4 successive cohorts of Danish university graduates born 1960-1975. These are cohorts for whom university attendance increased steeply. Contrary to recent findings…

Serum metabolites and risk of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke: a targeted metabolomic approach in two German prospective cohorts.

PubMed

Floegel, Anna; Kühn, Tilman; Sookthai, Disorn; Johnson, Theron; Prehn, Cornelia; Rolle-Kampczyk, Ulrike; Otto, Wolfgang; Weikert, Cornelia; Illig, Thomas; von Bergen, Martin; Adamski, Jerzy; Boeing, Heiner; Kaaks, Rudolf; Pischon, Tobias

2018-01-01

Metabolomic approaches in prospective cohorts may offer a unique snapshot into early metabolic perturbations that are associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in healthy people. We investigated the association of 105 serum metabolites, including acylcarnitines, amino acids, phospholipids and hexose, with risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam (27,548 adults) and Heidelberg (25,540 adults) cohorts. Using case-cohort designs, we measured metabolites among individuals who were free of CVD and diabetes at blood draw but developed MI (n = 204 and n = 228) or stroke (n = 147 and n = 121) during follow-up (mean, 7.8 and 7.3 years) and among randomly drawn subcohorts (n = 2214 and n = 770). We used Cox regression analysis and combined results using meta-analysis. Independent of classical CVD risk factors, ten metabolites were associated with risk of MI in both cohorts, including sphingomyelins, diacyl-phosphatidylcholines and acyl-alkyl-phosphatidylcholines with pooled relative risks in the range of 1.21-1.40 per one standard deviation increase in metabolite concentrations. The metabolites showed positive correlations with total- and LDL-cholesterol (r ranged from 0.13 to 0.57). When additionally adjusting for total-, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides and C-reactive protein, acyl-alkyl-phosphatidylcholine C36:3 and diacyl-phosphatidylcholines C38:3 and C40:4 remained associated with risk of MI. When added to classical CVD risk models these metabolites further improved CVD prediction (c-statistics increased from 0.8365 to 0.8384 in EPIC-Potsdam and from 0.8344 to 0.8378 in EPIC-Heidelberg). None of the metabolites was consistently associated with stroke risk. Alterations in sphingomyelin and phosphatidylcholine metabolism, and particularly metabolites of the arachidonic acid pathway are independently associated with risk of MI in

Effects of Paradigm and Inter-Stimulus Interval on Age Differences in Eyeblink Classical Conditioning in Rabbits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodruff-Pak, Diana S.; Seta, Susan E.; Roker, LaToya A.; Lehr, Melissa A.

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine parameters affecting age differences in eyeblink classical conditioning in a large sample of young and middle-aged rabbits. A total of 122 rabbits of mean ages of 4 or 26 mo were tested at inter-stimulus intervals (ISIs) of 600 or 750 msec in the delay or trace paradigms. Paradigm affected both age groups…

Cohort Changes in Attitudes About Legalized Abortion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutler, Stephen J.; And Others

Cohort changes in attitudes about the availability of legal abortions are traced over a 12-year period using data from seven national surveys. Contrary to the aging-conservatism hypothesis, trends in the direction of increasingly favorable attitudes between 1965 and 1973 and general stability thereafter characterize all cohorts. On this issue,…

Economic independence in survivors of cancer diagnosed at a young age: A Norwegian national cohort study.

PubMed

Gunnes, Maria W; Lie, Rolv Terje; Bjørge, Tone; Syse, Astri; Ruud, Ellen; Wesenberg, Finn; Moster, Dag

2016-12-15

The impact of cancer on socioeconomic outcomes is attracting attention as the number of survivors of cancer in young age continues to rise. This study examines economic independence in a national cohort of survivors of cancer at a young age in Norway. Through the linkage of several national registries, the study cohort comprised 1,212,013 individuals born in Norway during 1965 through 1985, of which 5440 had received a cancer diagnosis before age 25 years. Follow-up was through 2007, and the main outcomes were receipt of governmental financial assistance, employment, income, and occupation. Analytic methods included Cox proportional hazard regression, log-binomial regression, and quantile regression models. Individuals in the cancer survivor group had an increased probability of receiving governmental financial assistance (men: hazard ratio [HR], 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-1.5; women: HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.6) and of not being employed (men: HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7; women: HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.6) compared with those in the noncancer group. Income discrepancies were particularly pronounced for survivors of central nervous system tumors. There was no difference in representation in higher skilled occupations. Survivors of cancer at a young age in Norway had an increased risk of being economically dependent and unemployed. This was evident in several tumor groups and was most pronounced in female survivors. There were only small differences in income or representation in higher skilled occupations for most employed survivors compared with the noncancer group. The current results are important for understanding the impact of a cancer diagnosis at a young age on subsequent job market outcomes. Cancer 2016;122:3873-3882. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Genetic markers enhance coronary risk prediction in men: the MORGAM prospective cohorts.

PubMed

Hughes, Maria F; Saarela, Olli; Stritzke, Jan; Kee, Frank; Silander, Kaisa; Klopp, Norman; Kontto, Jukka; Karvanen, Juha; Willenborg, Christina; Salomaa, Veikko; Virtamo, Jarmo; Amouyel, Phillippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Ferrières, Jean; Wiklund, Per-Gunner; Baumert, Jens; Thorand, Barbara; Diemert, Patrick; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Hengstenberg, Christian; Peters, Annette; Evans, Alun; Koenig, Wolfgang; Erdmann, Jeanette; Samani, Nilesh J; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Schunkert, Heribert

2012-01-01

More accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design. Using data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5-18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived. Both scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50-59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events. Genetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.

Birth-cohort patterns in Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis.

PubMed

Sonnenberg, Amnon

2014-01-01

To test the long-term time trends of mortality from inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), including Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), for the presence of birth-cohort phenomena. We analyzed mortality data from the national statistical offices of Canada, England and Wales, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the USA for the past 60-80 years. Age-specific rates of death were plotted against the period of death, as period-age contours, and against the period of birth, as cohort-age contours. In all six countries alike, the general time trends of IBD have been shaped by an underlying birth-cohort pattern. This pattern was also observed in the data of CD and UC analyzed separately. UC mortality increased in all generations born during the 19th century. It peaked among generations born shortly before the turn of the century and then decreased in all subsequent generations born throughout the 20th century. Compared with UC, the birth-cohort pattern of CD was delayed by 30-50 years. In addition to one risk factor responsible for the general occurrence of IBD and possibly UC alone, there exists at least one additional risk factor responsible for CD. Exposure to both separate risk factors must occur during early life.

Impact of aging on host immune response and survival in melanoma: an analysis of 3 patient cohorts.

PubMed

Weiss, Sarah A; Han, Joseph; Darvishian, Farbod; Tchack, Jeremy; Han, Sung Won; Malecek, Karolina; Krogsgaard, Michelle; Osman, Iman; Zhong, Judy

2016-10-19

Age has been reported as an independent prognostic factor for melanoma-specific survival (MSS). We tested the hypothesis that age impacts the host anti-tumor immune response, accounting for age-specific survival outcomes in three unique melanoma patient cohorts. We queried the U.S. population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER), the prospective tertiary care hospital-based Interdisciplinary Melanoma Cooperative Group (IMCG) biorepository, and the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) biospecimen database to test the association of patient age at time of melanoma diagnosis with clinicopathologic features and survival outcomes. Age groups were defined as ≤45 (young), 46-65 (intermediate), and >65 (older). Each age group in the IMCG and TCGA cohorts was stratified by tumor infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) measurements and tested for association with MSS. Differential expression of 594 immunoregulatory genes was assessed in a subset of primary melanomas in the IMCG and TCGA cohorts using an integrative pathway analysis. We analyzed 304, 476 (SEER), 1241 (IMCG), and 292 (TCGA) patients. Increasing age at melanoma diagnosis in both the SEER and IMCG cohorts demonstrated a positive correlation with tumor thickness, ulceration, stage, and mortality, however age in the TCGA cohort did not correlate with mortality. Older age was associated with shorter MSS in all three cohorts. When the young age group in both the IMCG and TCGA cohorts was stratified by TIL status, there were no differences in MSS. However, older IMCG patients with brisk TILs and intermediate aged TCGA patients with high lymphocyte scores (3-6) had improved MSS. Gene expression analysis revealed top pathways (T cell trafficking, communication, and differentiation) and top upstream regulators (CD3, CD28, IFNG, and STAT3) that significantly changed with age in 84 IMCG and 43 TCGA primary melanomas. Older age at time of melanoma diagnosis is associated with shorter MSS, however age

Activities and sources of income after a period of long-term sick leave--a population-based prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wikman, Anders; Wiberg, Michael; Marklund, Staffan; Alexanderson, Kristina

2012-09-06

There is limited knowledge about what happens to people after long-term sick leave. The aim of this report was to conduct a prospective study of individuals who were on prolonged sick leave during a particular year, considering their activities and sources of income during subsequent years. To enable comparison of different time periods, we used three cohorts of individuals with different starting years. Using data from national registers, three separate cohorts were constructed that included all people living in Sweden who were 20-64 years of age (>5 million) in the years 1995, 2000 and 2005, respectively. The individual members of the cohorts were classified into the following groups based on their main source of income and activity in 1995-2008: on long-term sick leave, employed, old-age pensioner, long-term unemployed, disability pensioner, on parental leave, social assistance recipient, student allowance recipient, deceased, or emigrated. Most individuals on long-term (> 6 months) sick leave in 1995 were not employed 13 years later. Only 11% of the women and 13% of the men were primarily in employment after 13 years. Instead, a wide range of alternatives existed, for example, many had been granted disability pension, and about 10% of the women and 17% of the men had died during the follow-up period. A larger proportion of those with long-term sick leave were back in employment when 2005 was the starting year for the follow-up. The low future employment rates for people on long-term sick leave may seem surprising. There are several possible explanations for the finding: The disorders these people may have, might have entailed longstanding difficulties on the labor market. Besides, long-term absence from work, no matter what its causes were, might have worsen the chances of further employment. The economic cycles may also have been of importance. The improving labor market during later years seems to have improved the chances for employment among those earlier

Post-fall reporting in aged acute inpatient mental health units: an 18-month observational cohort study.

PubMed

Furness, Trentham; Mnatzaganian, George; Garlick, Robyn; Ireland, Susan; McKenna, Brian; Hill, Keith D

2017-12-01

Despite the high risk of falling for people with severe mental illness, there is limited falls research in mental health settings. Therefore, the objective of this observational cohort study was to conduct a focused post-fall review of fall episodes within aged acute inpatient mental health units at one of Australia's largest publicly funded mental health organizations. A post-fall reporting tool was developed to collect intrinsic and extrinsic fall risk factors among three aged acute mental health inpatient units over an 18-month period. Descriptive and inferential analyses were conducted to describe fall risk factors and predictors of fall risk. There were a total of 115 falls, of which the tool was used for 93 (80.9%) episodes. Falls occurred most often in consumer's bedroom/bathroom and were unwitnessed. Intrinsic risk factors were most often attributed to postural drop and losing balance during walking. However, that was in contrast to consumer's who self-reported feeling dizzy as the reason of the fall. Based on the cohort, future falls could be reduced by targeting those aged above 82 years, or with a diagnosis of dementia. Recurrent falls during admission could be reduced by targeting those with psychotic illness and males with a diagnosis of dementia. A clearer dialogue among consumers and clinical staff reporting about fall episodes may support future remedial interventions and inform programs to reduce fall risk and assist the challenge of describing unwitnessed falls in aged acute inpatient mental health settings.

Age-related patterns in nonmedical prescription opioid use and disorder in the US population at ages 12-34 from 2002 to 2014.

PubMed

Hu, Mei-Chen; Griesler, Pamela; Wall, Melanie; Kandel, Denise B

2017-08-01

To estimate age-related patterns in nonmedical prescription opioid (NMPO) use in the US population and disorder among past-year users at ages 12-34 between 2002 and 2014, controlling for period and birth-cohort effects. Data are from 13 consecutive cross-sectional National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (N=542,556). Synthetic longitudinal cohorts spanning ages 12-34 were created and an age-period-cohort analysis was implemented based on the Intrinsic Estimator algorithm. In every birth cohort, past-year NMPO use increases during adolescence, peaks at ages 18-21, decreases through ages 30-34; disorder among past-year users increases from ages 18-21 through 30-34. Use at ages 12-34 decreased from the 1984-87 birth cohorts to more recently-born cohorts. Peak prevalence of use at ages 18-21 has also decreased, and the rates of increase from ages 14-17 to ages 18-21 are slowing down. Disorder at ages 18-34 increased from the 1976-79 to 1992-95 cohorts, but decreased at ages 12-17 from the 1992-95 to the most recently-born 2000-02 cohorts. The years 2010-2014 were characterized by lower NMPO use but higher disorder than 2002-2009. Increasing NMPO disorder among users aged 18-34 warrants concern. However, declining NMPO use among 12-34 year-olds, a declining rate of increase from adolescence to early adulthood, and a suggestive decline in disorder among the most recent adolescent cohorts may forecast a potential reduction in the public health crisis associated with NMPO drugs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mothers, places and small for gestational age births: a cohort study.

PubMed

Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina; Johansson, Sven-Erik; Li, Xinjun; Winkleby, Marilyn

2011-04-01

This study examines whether neighbourhood deprivation increases the risk of giving birth to a small for gestational age (SGA) infant, after accounting for individual-level maternal socioeconomic characteristics. An open cohort of women, aged 20-44 years, was followed from 1 January 1992 through 31 December 2004 for first singleton births. The women's residential addresses during the two consecutive years preceding the birth of their infants were geocoded and classified into three levels of neighbourhood deprivation. Gestational age was confirmed by ultrasound examinations. Multilevel logistic regression models were used in the statistical analysis. Sweden. During the study period, women gave birth to 720 357 infants, of whom 20 487 (2.8%) were SGA. Age-adjusted incidence rates of SGA births increased with increasing level of neighbourhood deprivation. In the total population, 2.5% of births in the least deprived neighbourhoods and 3.5% of births in the most deprived neighbourhoods were SGA. A similar pattern of higher incidence with increasing level of neighbourhood-level deprivation was observed across all individual-level sociodemographic categories, including maternal age, marital status, family income, educational attainment, employment, mobility and urban/rural status. High neighbourhood-level deprivation remained significantly associated with SGA risk after adjusting for maternal sociodemographic characteristics (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.34). This study is the largest to date of the influence of neighbourhood on SGA birth, with SGA confirmed by ultrasound examination. Results suggest that the characteristics of a mother's neighbourhood affect the risk of delivering an SGA infant independently of maternal sociodemographic characteristics.

Changing attitudes toward aging policy in the United States during the 1980s and 1990s: a cohort analysis.

PubMed

Silverstein, M; Angelelli, J J; Parrott, T M

2001-01-01

This research assessed how the attitudes of Americans toward government programs that serve older people changed between the mid-1980s and late 1990s and how much of the shift was dueto intracohort change and how much was due to cohort replacement. Data come from three nationally representative cross-sectional samples, surveyed by telephone in 1986 (N = 1.209), 1990 (N = 1,500), and 1997 (N = 1,559). Attitudes of Americans have become less supportive of expanding entitlement programs for older people and more supportive of cutting their costs and benefits. Between 1986 and 1997, most cohorts, particularly older adults, grew more in favor of maintaining Social Security benefit levels but less in favor of expanding them. Young adults tended to be driving the societal shift in attitudes toward decreasing benefits. Intercohort change was more important than cohort replacement in this process. Analyses of change in 2 attitude domains between 1990 and 1997 revealed that the general population felt less strongly that older people are entitled to benefits and expressed greater opposition to the associated costs. However, young adults moderated their concerns about costs as they got older, although the young adults in the cohort replacing them had become more critical of the principle of entitlement. These findings enhance the understanding of the roles that historical conditions and aging play in shaping the attitudes of adult cohorts toward public programs for older citizens. Discrepant findings based on the intercohort change in younger age groups are reconciled by differentiating maturation effects from period effects on impressionable youth.

Associations of age and sex with the clinical outcome and incubation period of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O104:H4 infections, 2011.

PubMed

Werber, Dirk; King, Lisa A; Müller, Luise; Follin, Per; Buchholz, Udo; Bernard, Helen; Rosner, Bettina; Ethelberg, Steen; de Valk, Henriette; Höhle, Michael

2013-09-15

We pooled data on adults who reported diarrhea or developed life-threatening hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) in any of 6 closed cohorts from 4 countries (1 cohort each in Denmark, France, and Sweden and 3 in Germany) that were investigated during a large outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O104:H4 infection in 2011. Logistic regression and Weibull regression for interval censored data were used to assess the relation of age and sex with clinical outcome and with incubation period. Information on the latter was used in a nonparametric back-projection context to estimate when adult cases reported in Germany were exposed to STEC O104:H4. Overall, data from 119 persons (median age, 49 years; 80 women) were analyzed. Bloody diarrhea and HUS were recorded as the most severe outcome for 44 and 26 individuals, respectively. Older age was significantly associated with bloody diarrhea but not with HUS. Woman had nonsignificantly higher odds for bloody diarrhea (odds ratio = 1.81) and developing HUS (odds ratio = 1.83) than did men. Older participants had a statistically significantly reduced incubation period. The shortest interval that included 75% of exposures in adults spanned only 12 days and preceded outbreak detection. In conclusion, the frequency of bloody diarrhea but not of HUS and the length of the incubation period depended on the age of individuals infected with STEC O104:H4. A large number of people were exposed to STEC O104:H4 for a short period of time.

Attachment to place in advanced age: A study of the LiLACS NZ cohort.

PubMed

Wiles, Janine L; Rolleston, Anna; Pillai, Avinesh; Broad, Joanna; Teh, Ruth; Gott, Merryn; Kerse, Ngaire

2017-07-01

An extensive body of research theorises that attachment to place is positively associated with health, particularly for older people. Building on this, we measure how indicators of attachment to place are associated with health for in people of advanced age in New Zealand. We use data from a cohort study (LiLACS NZ), which includes an indigenous Māori cohort aged 80-90 years and a non-Māori cohort aged 85 years from a mixed urban/rural region in New Zealand. Each cohort undertook a comprehensive interview and health assessment (n = 267 Māori and n = 404 non-Māori). Using multivariate regression analyses, we explore participants' feelings for and connectedness with their home, community and neighbourhood; nature and the outdoors; expectations about and enthusiasm for residential mobility; and how all these are associated with measures of health (e.g., SF-12 physical and mental health related quality of life) and functional status (e.g., NEADL). We demonstrate that people in advanced age hold strong feelings of attachment to place. We also establish some positive associations between attachment to place and health in advanced age, and show how these differ for the indigenous and non-indigenous cohorts. For older Māori there were strong associations between various health measures and the importance of nature and the outdoors, and connectedness to neighbourhood and community. For older non-Māori, there were strong associations between health and liking home and neighbourhood, and feeling connected to their community and neighbourhood. Place attachment, and particularly its relationship to health, operates in different ways for different groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health and aging in elderly farmers: the AMI cohort

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The health of the agricultural population has been previously explored, particularly in relation to the farming exposures and among professionally active individuals. However, few studies specifically focused on health and aging among elders retired from agriculture. Yet, this population faces the long-term effects of occupational exposures and multiple difficulties related to living and aging in rural area (limited access to shops, services, and practitioners). However, these difficulties may be counter-balanced by advantages related to healthier lifestyle, richer social support and better living environment. The general aim of the AMI cohort was to study health and aging in elderly farmers living in rural area through a multidisciplinary approach, with a main focus on dementia. Methods/design The study initially included 1 002 participants, randomly selected from the Farmer Health Insurance rolls. Selection criteria were: being 65 years and older; living in rural area in Gironde (South-Western France); being retired from agriculture after at least 20 years of activity and being affiliated to the Health Insurance under own name. The study started in 2007, with two follow-up visits over 5 years. Baseline visits were conducted at home by a neuropsychologist then by a geriatrician for all cases suspected of dementia, Parkinson’s disease and depression (to confirm the diagnosis), and by a nurse for others. A large panel of data were collected through standardised questionnaires: complete neuropsychological assessment, material and social living environment, psychological transition to retirement, lifestyle (smoking, alcohol and diet), medications, disability in daily living, sensory impairments and some clinical measures (blood pressure, depression symptomatology, anxiety, visual test, anthropometry…). A blood sampling was performed with biological measurements and constitution of a biological bank, including DNA. Brain MRI were also performed on

Age and fecundability in a North American preconception cohort study.

PubMed

Wesselink, Amelia K; Rothman, Kenneth J; Hatch, Elizabeth E; Mikkelsen, Ellen M; Sørensen, Henrik T; Wise, Lauren A

2017-12-01

There is a well-documented decline in fertility treatment success with increasing female age; however, there are few preconception cohort studies that have examined female age and natural fertility. In addition, data on male age and fertility are inconsistent. Given the increasing number of couples who are attempting conception at older ages, a more detailed characterization of age-related fecundability in the general population is of great clinical utility. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between female and male age with fecundability. We conducted a web-based preconception cohort study of pregnancy planners from the United States and Canada. Participants were enrolled between June 2013 and July 2017. Eligible participants were 21-45 years old (female) or ≥21 years old (male) and had not been using fertility treatments. Couples were followed until pregnancy or for up to 12 menstrual cycles. We analyzed data from 2962 couples who had been trying to conceive for ≤3 cycles at study entry and reported no history of infertility. We used life-table methods to estimate the unadjusted cumulative pregnancy proportion at 6 and 12 cycles by female and male age. We used proportional probabilities regression models to estimate fecundability ratios, the per-cycle probability of conception for each age category relative to the referent (21-24 years old), and 95% confidence intervals. Among female patients, the unadjusted cumulative pregnancy proportion at 6 cycles of attempt time ranged from 62.0% (age 28-30 years) to 27.6% (age 40-45 years); the cumulative pregnancy proportion at 12 cycles of attempt time ranged from 79.3% (age 25-27 years old) to 55.5% (age 40-45 years old). Similar patterns were observed among male patients, although differences between age groups were smaller. After adjusting for potential confounders, we observed a nearly monotonic decline in fecundability with increasing female age, with the exception of 28-33 years, at which

Dietary intake and age at natural menopause: results from the UK Women's Cohort Study.

PubMed

Dunneram, Yashvee; Greenwood, Darren Charles; Burley, Victoria J; Cade, Janet E

2018-04-30

Age at natural menopause is a matter of concern for women of reproductive age as both an early or late menopause may have implications for health outcomes. Study participants were women aged 40-65 years who had experienced a natural menopause from the UK Women's Cohort Study between baseline and first follow-up. Natural menopause was defined as the permanent cessation of menstrual periods for at least 12 consecutive months. A food frequency questionnaire was used to estimate diet at baseline. Reproductive history of participants was also recorded. Regression modelling, adjusting for confounders, was used to assess associations between diet and age at natural menopause. During the 4-year follow-up period, 914 women experienced a natural menopause. A high intake of oily fish and fresh legumes were associated with delayed onset of natural menopause by 3.3 years per portion/day (99% CI 0.8 to 5.8) and 0.9 years per portion/day (99% CI 0.0 to 1.8), respectively. Refined pasta and rice was associated with earlier menopause (per portion/day: -1.5 years, 99% CI -2.8 to -0.2). A higher intake of vitamin B6 (per mg/day: 0.6 years, 99% CI 0.1 to 1.2) and zinc (per mg/day: 0.3 years, 99% CI -0.0 to 0.6) was also associated with later age at menopause. Stratification by age at baseline led to attenuated results. Our results suggest that some food groups (oily fish, fresh legumes, refined pasta and rice) and specific nutrients are individually predictive of age at natural menopause. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

National cohort study of absolute risk and age-specific incidence of multiple adverse outcomes between adolescence and early middle age.

PubMed

Mok, Pearl L H; Antonsen, Sussie; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny; Webb, Roger T

2015-09-19

Psychiatric illness, substance misuse, suicidality, criminality and premature death represent major public health challenges that afflict a sizeable proportion of young people. However, studies of multiple adverse outcomes in the same cohort at risk are rare. In a national Danish cohort we estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates and absolute risks of these outcomes between adolescence and early middle age. Using interlinked registers, persons born in Denmark 1966-1996 were followed from their 15(th) until 40(th) birthday or December 2011 (N = 2,070,904). We estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates of nine adverse outcomes, in three main categories: Premature mortality (all-causes, suicide, accident); Psychiatric morbidity (any mental illness diagnosis, suicide attempt, alcohol or drug misuse disorder); Criminality (violent offending, receiving custodial sentence, driving under influence of alcohol or drugs). Cumulative incidences were also calculated using competing risk survival analyses. For cohort members alive on their 15(th) birthday, the absolute risks of dying by age 40 were 1.99 % for males [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.95-2.03 %] and 0.85 % for females (95 % CI 0.83-0.88 %). The risks of substance misuse and criminality were also much higher for males, especially younger males, than for females. Specifically, the risk of a first conviction for a violent offence was highest amongst males aged below 20. Females, however, were more likely than males to have a hospital-treated psychiatric disorder. By age 40, 13.25 % of females (95 % CI 13.16-13.33 %) and 9.98 % of males (95 % CI 9.91-10.06 %) had been treated. Women aged below 25 were also more likely than men to first attempt suicide, but this pattern was reversed beyond this age. The greatest gender differentials in incidence rates were in criminality outcomes. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the incidence rates and absolute risks of these multiple adverse outcomes

Cohort change and the diffusion of environmental concern: A cross-national analysis.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Pampel, Fred C

2013-09-01

This study explores value change across cohorts for a multinational population sample. Employing a diffusion-of-innovations approach, we combine competing theories predicting the relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and environmentalism: post-materialism and affluence theories, and global environmentalism theory. The diffusion argument suggests that high-SES groups first adopt pro-environmental views, but as time passes by, environmentalism diffuses to lower-SES groups. We test the diffusion argument using a sample of 18 countries for two waves (years 1993 and 2000) from the International Social Survey Project (ISSP). Cross-classified multilevel modeling allows us to identify a non-linear interaction between cohort and education, our core measure of SES, in predicting environmental concern, while controlling for age and period. We find support for the diffusion argument and demonstrate that the positive effect of education on environmental concern first increases among older cohorts, then starts to level off until a bend-point is reached for individuals born around 1940 and becomes progressively weaker for younger cohorts.

Are baby boomer women unique? The moderating effect of birth cohort on age in substance use patterns during midlife.

PubMed

Sarabia, Stephanie Elias; Martin, James I

2016-01-01

This study examined the relationships of age to use of alcohol, marijuana, and illicit drugs, and misuse of prescription drugs, among midlife women and whether these relationships are modified by birth cohort. Structural Equation Modeling was used to analyze National Survey on Drug Use and Health data, which included 2,035 baby boomer and silent generation cohort women, ages 30 to 55. Midlife women across cohorts reduced alcohol and marijuana use, but not illicit and prescription drug misuse, as they aged. A modifying effect of birth cohort was not supported, but findings did support differential aging effects across substances. Implications are discussed.

Significant calendar period deviations in testicular germ cell tumors indicate that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

PubMed

Speaks, Crystal; McGlynn, Katherine A; Cook, Michael B

2012-10-01

The current working model of type II testicular germ cell tumor (TGCT) pathogenesis states that carcinoma in situ arises during embryogenesis, is a necessary precursor, and always progresses to cancer. An implicit condition of this model is that only in utero exposures affect the development of TGCT in later life. In an age-period-cohort analysis, this working model contends an absence of calendar period deviations. We tested this contention using data from the SEER registries of the United States. We assessed age-period-cohort models of TGCTs, seminomas, and nonseminomas for the period 1973-2008. Analyses were restricted to whites diagnosed at ages 15-74 years. We tested whether calendar period deviations were significant in TGCT incidence trends adjusted for age deviations and cohort effects. This analysis included 32,250 TGCTs (18,475 seminomas and 13,775 nonseminomas). Seminoma incidence trends have increased with an average annual percentage change in log-linear rates (net drift) of 1.25 %, relative to just 0.14 % for nonseminoma. In more recent time periods, TGCT incidence trends have plateaued and then undergone a slight decrease. Calendar period deviations were highly statistically significant in models of TGCT (p = 1.24(-9)) and seminoma (p = 3.99(-14)), after adjustment for age deviations and cohort effects; results for nonseminoma (p = 0.02) indicated that the effects of calendar period were much more muted. Calendar period deviations play a significant role in incidence trends of TGCT, which indicates that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

Is hypertension in adult age related to unemployment at a young age? Results from the Northern Swedish Cohort.

PubMed

Nygren, Karina; Gong, Weidan; Hammarström, Anne

2015-02-01

The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between early unemployment (ages 16-21 years) and adult hypertension after controlling for earlier hypertension, unemployment in adult life, risk factors for hypertension and confounders. A cohort of 927 (86.6% of the original cohort) 9th grade school-leavers was followed from 1981 until 2008. Data were collected through questionnaires, health examinations, and national registers. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used as primary statistical methods. At ages 21 and 43, hypertension was significantly more prevalent among men than women (p < .001). Unemployment between the ages of 16 and 21 was related to hypertension at age 43 among women but not men. The odds ratio (OR) was persistently high (OR 3.16 [95% confidence interval 1.45-6.89]) after controlling for late unemployment, hypertension at age 16, risk factors for hypertension and confounders. There was no significant relationship between exposure to early unemployment and hypertension at age 21 for women or men. From a public health perspective, youth unemployment is a societal problem in need of more attention and intervention in order to prevent long-term adverse health outcomes. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

COHORT CHANGES IN THE SOCIAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOLERANT SEXUAL ATTITUDES

PubMed Central

Pampel, Fred C.

2017-01-01

Though many studies have described societal-wide changes in tolerance for sexual behaviors outside marriage, few have examined how the social distribution of tolerant attitudes has changed. A diffusion-of-innovations approach predicts nonlinear change in the distribution: high SES groups adopt the attitudes first, which produces a positive relationship, but diffusion to other SES groups subsequently weakens the association with SES. I test this argument using the General Social Survey from 1973 to 2014 to compare the SES determinants of attitudes toward premarital sex, extramarital sex, same-gender sex, and teenage sex across 86 cohorts born from around 1900 to 1985. Multilevel age, period, and cohort models support diffusion arguments concerning tolerance of premarital sex by demonstrating that the effects of indicators of SES first strengthen and then weaken across cohorts. Little support emerges for diffusion arguments concerning tolerance of extramarital sex and teenage sex, and preliminary but suggestive support emerges concerning tolerance of same-gender sex. PMID:28533566

The impact of age vs. life experience on the gender role attitudes of women in different cohorts.

PubMed

Lynott, P P; McCandless, N J

2000-01-01

Much research has concluded that the gender role attitudes of older women are more traditional in orientation. This line of research, however, has often confounded the impact of age and cohort. Consequently, cohort differences in life experiences have not been systematically explored. This study addresses the relationship between age and gender role attitudes, taking into account the potential mediating effects of life experiences and controlling for cohort. The conclusions suggest that the impact of age on gender role attitudes is not as strong as might be expected. Rather, the results show that the life experiences of different cohorts are better predictors of gender role attitudes among older women, though such experiences do not have the same impact on all women.

Literature--News That Stays News: Fresh Approaches to the Classics. Classroom Practices in Teaching English, 1984.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Council of Teachers of English, Urbana, IL.

New approaches to the teaching of the classics are explored in this collection of articles written by high school, junior college, college, and university literature instructors. The seven articles in the first section of the book discuss linking the classics. Specific topics covered in the articles include using the works of William Golding as a…

Mathematics Curricula and Age Cohort Participation: A Six Nation Comparison.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Natsoulas, Anthula

Secondary level mathematics programs of England, Finland, France, Israel, Japan and Swaziland are compared using data from the Second International Mathematics Study and United Nations sources. Within a clearly defined school structure, the number of mathematics course options, age cohort enrollments and male/female ratios are considered with an…

Drought, epidemic disease, and the fall of classic period cultures in Mesoamerica (AD 750-950). Hemorrhagic fevers as a cause of massive population loss.

PubMed

Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo; Stahle, David W; Therrell, Matthew D; Gomez Chavez, Sergio; Cleaveland, Malcolm K

2005-01-01

The classical period in Mexico (AD 250-750) was an era of splendor. The city of Teotihuacan was one of the largest and most sophisticated human conglomerates of the pre-industrial world. The Mayan civilization in southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan peninsula reached an impressive degree of development at the same time. This time of prosperity came to an end during the Terminal Classic Period (AD 750-950) a time of massive population loss throughout Mesoamerica. A second episode of massive depopulation in the same area was experienced during the sixteenth century when, in less than one century, between 80% and 90% of the entire indigenous population was lost. The 16th century depopulation of Mexico constitutes one of the worst demographic catastrophes in human history. Although newly imported European and African diseases caused high mortality among the native population, the major 16th century population losses were caused by a series of epidemics of a hemorrhagic fever called Cocoliztli, a highly lethal disease unknown to both Aztec and European physicians during the colonial era. The cocoliztli epidemics occurred during the 16th century megadrought, when severe drought extended at times from central Mexico to the boreal forest of Canada, and from the Pacific to the Atlantic coast. The collapse of the cultures of the Classic Period seems also to have occurred during a time of severe drought. Tree ring and lake sediment records indicate that some of the most severe and prolonged droughts to impact North America-Mesoamerica in the past 1000-4000 years occurred between AD 650 and 1000, particularly during the 8th and 9th centuries, a period of time that coincides with the Terminal Classic Period. Based on the similarities of the climatic (severe drought) and demographic (massive population loss) events in Mesoamerica during the sixteenth century, we propose that drought-associated epidemics of hemorrhagic fever may have contributed to the massive population loss

Period doubling in period-one steady states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Reuben R. W.; Xing, Bo; Carlo, Gabriel G.; Poletti, Dario

2018-02-01

Nonlinear classical dissipative systems present a rich phenomenology in their "route to chaos," including period doubling, i.e., the system evolves with a period which is twice that of the driving. However, typically the attractor of a periodically driven quantum open system evolves with a period which exactly matches that of the driving. Here, we analyze a periodically driven many-body open quantum system whose classical correspondent presents period doubling. We show that by studying the dynamical correlations, it is possible to show the occurrence of period doubling in the quantum (period-one) steady state. We also discuss that such systems are natural candidates for clean and intrinsically robust Floquet time crystals.

Vision and Intelligence at Age 83 in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Ross D.; Allerhand, Michael; Patton, Niall; Pattie, Alison; Gow, Alan J.; Dhillon, Baljean; Starr, John M.; Deary, Ian J.

2011-01-01

The extent to which visual function, measured as near and distant visual acuity and contrast sensitivity, is correlated with concurrently measured cognitive function and prior intellectual ability was investigated in a narrow age range group known as the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1921 (LBC1921). Participants were aged approximately 83 years at the…

Cohort profile: the Spanish WORKing life Social Security (WORKss) cohort study

PubMed Central

López Gómez, María Andrée; Durán, Xavier; Zaballa, Elena; Sanchez-Niubo, Albert; Delclos, George L; Benavides, Fernando G

2016-01-01

Purpose The global economy is changing the labour market and social protection systems in Europe. The effect of both changes on health needs to be monitored in view of an ageing population and the resulting increase in prevalence of chronic health conditions. The Spanish WORKing life Social Security (WORKss) cohort study provides unique longitudinal data to study the impact of labour trajectories and employment conditions on health, in terms of sickness absence, permanent disability and death. Participants The WORKss cohort originated from the Continuous Working Life Sample (CWLS) generated by the General Directorate for the Organization of the Social Security in Spain. The CWLS contains a 4% representative sample of all individuals in contact with the Social Security system. The WORKss cohort exclusively includes individuals with a labour trajectory from 1981 or later. In 2004, the cohort was initiated with 1 022 779 Social Security members: 840 770 (82.2%) contributors and 182 009 (17.8%) beneficiaries aged 16 and older. Findings to date The WORKss cohort includes demographic characteristics, chronological data about employment history, retirement, permanent disability and death. These data make possible the measurement of incidence of permanent disability, the number of potential years of working life lost, and the number of contracts and inactive periods with the Social Security system. The WORKss cohort was linked to temporary sickness absence registries to study medical diagnoses that lead to permanent disability and consequently to an earlier exit from the labour market in unhealthy conditions. Future plans Thanks to its administrative source, the WORKss cohort study will continue follow-up in the coming years, keeping the representativeness of the Spanish population affiliated to the Social Security system. The linkage between the WORKss cohort and temporary sickness absence registries is envisioned to continue. Future plans include the linkage of

Predictive Accuracy of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index for Mortality with HIV Infection: A North American Cross Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Justice, AC; Modur, S; Tate, JP; Althoff, KN; Jacobson, LP; Gebo, K; Kitahata, M; Horberg, M; Brooks, J; Buchacz, K; Rourke, SB; Rachlis, A; Napravnik, S; Eron, J; Willig, H; Moore, R; Kirk, GD; Bosch, R; Rodriguez, B; Hogg, RS; Thorne, J; Goedert, JJ; Klein, M; Gill, MJ; Deeks, S; Sterling, TR; Anastos, K; Gange, SJ

2013-01-01

Background By supplementing an index composed of HIV biomarkers and age (Restricted Index) with measures of organ injury, the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index more completely reflects risk of mortality. We compare the accuracy of the VACS and Restricted Indices 1) among subjects outside the Veterans Healthcare System (VA), 2) over 1–5 years of prior exposure to antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 3) within important patient subgroups. Methods We used data from 13 cohorts in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (NA-ACCORD, n=10, 835) limiting analyses to HIV-infected subjects with at least 12 months exposure to ART. Variables included demographic, laboratory (CD4 count, HIV-1 RNA, hemoglobin, platelets, aspartate and alanine transaminase, creatinine and hepatitis C status), and survival. We used C statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI) to test discrimination varying prior ART exposure from 1–5 years. We then combined VA (n=5,066) and NA-ACCORD data, fit a parametric survival model, and compared predicted to observed mortality by cohort, gender, age, race, and HIV-1 RNA level. Results Mean follow-up was 3.3 years (655 deaths). Compared with the Restricted Index, the VACS Index showed greater discrimination (C statistic: 0.77 vs. 0.74; NRI 12%; p<0.0001). NRI was highest among those with HIV-1 RNA<500 copies/ml (25%) and age ≥50 years (20%). Predictions were similar to observed mortality among all subgroups. Conclusion VACS Index scores discriminate risk and translate into accurate mortality estimates over 1–5 years of exposures to ART and for diverse patient subgroups from North American PMID:23187941

Higher Education and the Determination of Aggregate Male Employment by Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stenberg, Anders; Wikstrom, Magnus

2004-01-01

This paper studies the determinants of age-specific employment rates among Swedish males, focusing on the effect of education on employment. We use cohort specific data for the time period 1984-1996 covering male cohorts aged 21-45. It is found that aggregate age-group-specific employment rates increase with the proportion of the cohort with an…

Climate regime shifts in paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula: from the Preclassic to Classic period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2015-04-01

It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction

Age-related differences in the brain areas outside the classical language areas among adults using category decision task.

PubMed

Cho, Yong Won; Song, Hui-Jin; Lee, Jae Jun; Lee, Joo Hwa; Lee, Hui Joong; Yi, Sang Doe; Chang, Hyuk Won; Berl, Madison M; Gaillard, William D; Chang, Yongmin

2012-03-01

Older adults perform much like younger adults on language. This similar level of performance, however, may come about through different underlying brain processes. In the present study, we evaluated age-related differences in the brain areas outside the typical language areas among adults using a category decision task. Our results showed that similar activation patterns were found in classical language processing areas across the three age groups although regional lateralization indices in Broca's and Wernicke's areas decreased with age. The greatest differences, however, among the three groups were found primarily in the brain areas not associated with core language functioning including the hippocampus, middle frontal gyrus, ventromedial frontal cortex, medial superior parietal cortex and posterior cingulate cortex. Therefore, the non-classical language areas may exhibit an age-related difference between three age groups while the subjects show a similar activation pattern in the core, primary language processing during a semantic decision task. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EPIDEMIOLOGY OF AGE-DEPENDENCE IN SLEEP DISORDERED BREATHING (SDB) IN OLD AGE: THE BAY AREA SLEEP COHORT (BASC).

PubMed

Bliwise, Donald L

2009-03-01

Sleep Disordered Breathing (SDB) is highly prevalent in elderly populations and is thought to reflect, at least in part, age-dependence. Several studies suggest that SDB in elderly populations may hold different functional outcomes relative to SDB in middle-aged populations. Risk factors for SDB specific for the elderly remain uncertain. In this report, we examined changes in SDB, body weight and pulmonary function in 103 individuals over an average interval of 7 years to determine whether changes in these measures covaried. In-lab polysomnography was performed on members of an elderly cohort (Bay Area Sleep Cohort) on two separate occasions (Time 1, Time 2) with multiple nights of measurement typically made on each occasion. Results indicated that: a) SDB progressed over time in both men and women; b) changes in body weight were unrelated to the progression in SDB; c) relative declines in lung volumes (Forced Vital Capacity, Forced Expiratory Volume in 1.0 second) were associated with relative increases in SDB, with the effects slightly stronger in men. These data suggest that age-dependence in one commonly ascribed aging biomarker (lung function) were coupled to increments in SDB. Maintenance of healthy lung function into old age may confer some protective benefits in the development of age-dependent SDB.

A changing epidemiology of suicide? The influence of birth cohorts on suicide rates in the United States.

PubMed

Phillips, Julie A

2014-08-01

The increases in suicide among middle-aged baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) in the United States since 1999 suggest a changing epidemiology of suicide. Using data from 1935 to 2010, this paper conducts age-period-cohort analyses to determine the impact of cohorts in shaping temporal patterns of suicide in the United States. The analysis demonstrates that age, period and cohort effects are all important in determining suicide trends. Net of age and period effects, the cohort pattern of suicide rates is U-shaped, with cohorts born between 1915 and 1945 possessing among the very lowest suicide rates. Suicide rates begin to rise with boomers and subsequent cohorts exhibit increasingly higher rates of suicide. The general pattern exists for both men and women but is especially pronounced among males. The average suicide rate over the entire period for males is about 28 per 100,000, 95% CI [27.4, 28.7]. For males born in 1930-34, the suicide rate is estimated to be 17.4 per 100,000, 95% CI [15.9, 18.8]; for males born between 1955 and 1959, the rate is essentially the same as the average for the period while for males born between 1985 and 1989, the suicide rate is estimated to be 37.8 per 100,000, 95% CI [33.1, 43.4]. The results dispute popular claims that boomers exhibit an elevated suicide rate relative to other generations, but boomers do appear to have ushered in new cohort patterns of suicide rates over the life course. These patterns are interpreted within a Durkheimian framework that suggests weakened forms of social integration and regulation among postwar cohorts may be producing increased suicide rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality from motorcycle crashes: the baby-boomer cohort effect.

PubMed

Puac-Polanco, Victor; Keyes, Katherine M; Li, Guohua

2016-12-01

Motorcyclists are known to be at substantially higher risk per mile traveled of dying from crashes than car occupants. In 2014, motorcycling made up less than 1 % of person-miles traveled but 13 % of the total mortality from motor-vehicle crashes in the United States. We assessed the cohort effect of the baby-boomers (i.e., those born between 1946 and 1964) in motorcycle crash mortality from 1975 to 2014 in the United States. Using mortality data for motorcycle occupants from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, we performed an age-period-cohort analysis using the multiphase method and the intrinsic estimator method. Baby-boomers experienced the highest mortality rates from motorcycle crashes at age 20-24 years and continued to experience excess mortality after age 40 years. After removing the effects of age and period, the estimated mortality risk from motorcycle crashes for baby-boomers was 48 % higher than that of the referent cohort (those born between 1930 and 1934, rate ratio 1.48; 95 % CI: 1.01, 2.18). Results from the multiphase method and the intrinsic estimator method were consistent. The baby-boomers have experienced significantly higher mortality from motorcycle crashes than other birth cohorts. To reduce motorcycle crash mortality, intervention programs specifically tailored for the baby-boomer generation are warranted.

Age and Environmental Concern: Some Specification of Effects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Honnold, Julie A.

1984-01-01

Distinguishes possible aging, cohort, and period effects, explaining time series differences by age groups in the General Social Survey data. Results indicate that the decline in environmental concern among most age groups can be accounted for by period effects, but an aging effect is important among young adults. (Author/JN)

Hybrid Quantum-Classical Approach to Quantum Optimal Control.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Yang, Xiaodong; Peng, Xinhua; Sun, Chang-Pu

2017-04-14

A central challenge in quantum computing is to identify more computational problems for which utilization of quantum resources can offer significant speedup. Here, we propose a hybrid quantum-classical scheme to tackle the quantum optimal control problem. We show that the most computationally demanding part of gradient-based algorithms, namely, computing the fitness function and its gradient for a control input, can be accomplished by the process of evolution and measurement on a quantum simulator. By posing queries to and receiving answers from the quantum simulator, classical computing devices update the control parameters until an optimal control solution is found. To demonstrate the quantum-classical scheme in experiment, we use a seven-qubit nuclear magnetic resonance system, on which we have succeeded in optimizing state preparation without involving classical computation of the large Hilbert space evolution.

Economic independence in survivors of cancer diagnosed at a young age: A Norwegian national cohort study

PubMed Central

Lie, Rolv Terje; Bjørge, Tone; Syse, Astri; Ruud, Ellen; Wesenberg, Finn; Moster, Dag

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND The impact of cancer on socioeconomic outcomes is attracting attention as the number of survivors of cancer in young age continues to rise. This study examines economic independence in a national cohort of survivors of cancer at a young age in Norway. METHODS Through the linkage of several national registries, the study cohort comprised 1,212,013 individuals born in Norway during 1965 through 1985, of which 5440 had received a cancer diagnosis before age 25 years. Follow‐up was through 2007, and the main outcomes were receipt of governmental financial assistance, employment, income, and occupation. Analytic methods included Cox proportional hazard regression, log‐binomial regression, and quantile regression models. RESULTS Individuals in the cancer survivor group had an increased probability of receiving governmental financial assistance (men: hazard ratio [HR], 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3‐1.5; women: HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3‐1.6) and of not being employed (men: HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2‐1.7; women: HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2‐1.6) compared with those in the noncancer group. Income discrepancies were particularly pronounced for survivors of central nervous system tumors. There was no difference in representation in higher skilled occupations. CONCLUSIONS Survivors of cancer at a young age in Norway had an increased risk of being economically dependent and unemployed. This was evident in several tumor groups and was most pronounced in female survivors. There were only small differences in income or representation in higher skilled occupations for most employed survivors compared with the noncancer group. The current results are important for understanding the impact of a cancer diagnosis at a young age on subsequent job market outcomes. Cancer 2016;122:3873–3882. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. PMID:27518040

Gender and education impact on brain aging: a general cognitive factor approach.

PubMed

Proust-Lima, Cécile; Amieva, Hélène; Letenneur, Luc; Orgogozo, Jean-Marc; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène; Dartigues, Jean-François

2008-09-01

In cognitive aging research, the study of a general cognitive factor has been shown to have a substantial explanatory power over the study of isolated tests. The authors aimed at differentiating the impact of gender and education on global cognitive change with age from their differential impact on 4 psychometric tests using a new latent process approach, which intermediates between a single-factor longitudinal model for sum scores and an item-response theory approach for longitudinal data. The analysis was conducted on a sample of 2,228 subjects from PAQUID, a population-based cohort of older adults followed for 13 years with repeated measures of cognition. Adjusted for vascular factors, the analysis confirmed that women performed better in tests involving verbal components, while men performed better in tests involving visuospatial skills. In addition, the model suggested that women had a slightly steeper global cognitive decline with oldest age than men, even after excluding incident dementia or death. Subjects with higher education exhibited a better mean score for the 4 tests, but this difference tended to attenuate with age for tests involving a speed component. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

[Retrospective cohort study on period of incubation and survival among former commercial plasma donors infected with HIV in Hebei province].

PubMed

Chen, Su-liang; Bai, Guang-yi; Li, Qiao-min; Li, Bao-jun; Hui, Yan-liang; Liang, Liang; Wang, Wei; Chen, Zhi-qiang; Lu, Xin-li; Wang, Xiao-feng; Zhang, Yu-qi; Zhao, Hong-ru

2012-04-01

To examine the state of incubation period and survival time of former commercial plasma donors (FCPDs) infected with HIV. All objects infected with HIV were from Hebei province and found from general investigation for FCPDs in 1995. The infector cohort by 142 cases was used to estimate incubation period. In the infector cohort, the time which infectors entered the cohort was their infection time, which was the middle value of the origin date, which was January 1, 1995. The onset of AIDS was defined as an outcome event. End point of observation was Dec 31, 2010. There were 192 months in all from beginning to end. The AIDS cohort by 57 cases was used to estimate the survival of the patients. In the patient cohort, the time of AIDS onset was defined as the time entering the cohort, and death of AIDS was defined as an outcome event. The cumulative incidence ratio, cumulative mortality, illness intensity and mortality intensity were analyzed through Kaplan-Meier. During the observation period, 123 cases of 142 infectors developed into AIDS, the cumulative incidence was 86.42% (123/142) and the intensity was 8.53/100 person-years and the median time of incubation period was 112.0 months (95%CI: 108.8 - 115.2). The death dates of 57 patients were from 1 to 24 months after onset. The cumulative mortality was 100%, and the intensity was 250.66/100 person-years and the median survival time was 3.0 months (95%CI: 1.8 - 4.2). It was estimated that the median time was 115.0 months (9.6 years) from infection to death. The median times of incubation and median survival time were 112.0 and 3.0 months, respectively.

Does low birthweight influence the nutritional status of children at school age? A cohort study in northeast Brazil.

PubMed

de Jesus Machado Amorim, Rosemary; de Carvalho Lima, Marilia; Cabral de Lira, Pedro Israel; Emond, Alan Martin

2011-07-01

Birthweight is recognized to be a determinant of a full term infant's early growth pattern; however, few studies have explored whether this effect is sustained into school age, especially in developing countries. We have used a cohort study from North East Brazil to investigate factors determining the anthropometric status of eight-year-old children born at full-term with low or appropriate weight. A cohort of 375 full-term infants was recruited at birth in six maternity hospitals between 1993 and 1994, in a poor region of the interior of the State of Pernambuco. At the age of 8 years, 86 born with low birthweight and 127 with appropriate birthweight were traced. Multivariable linear regression analyses were used to identify the net effect of socioeconomic conditions, maternal nutritional status and child factors on weight-for-age and height-for-age. An enter approach was used to estimate the contribution of different factors on child anthropometry. Birthweight had little influence on child nutritional status at school age. Maternal BMI and height together were the biggest contributors to variation in child weight-for-age (12.3%) and height-for-age (13.2%), followed by family socioeconomic conditions. Maternal height as a proxy of maternal constraint was the single factor that best explained the variation in both indices (6.2% for weight-for-age and 11.1% for height-for-age). Haemoglobin level measured at eight years made a small but significant contribution to variation in height-for-age (5.6%) and weight for age (1.4%). Maternal nutritional status, reflecting genetic inheritance and the poor socioeconomic conditions of this population, was the most important determinant of the nutritional status of children at school age, rather than birthweight. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Orbital Period of the Classical Nova V458 Vul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goranskij, V. P.; Metlova, N. V.; Barsukova, E. A.; Burenkov, A. N.; Soloviev, V. Ya.

2008-07-01

Classical nova V458 Vul (N Vul 2007 No.1) was detected as a supersoft X-ray source (SSS) by the Swift XRT several times in the time range between 2007 October 18 and 2008 June 18 (J. Drake et al., ATel #1246 and #1603). Our V photometry shows the plateau in the light curve continued since January till June 2008. This feature accompanies usually the SSS phases in some classical novae. The fragmentary monitoring during plateau shows night- to-night variability with the amplitudes between 1.2 and 0.4 mag and rapid variability by 0.1 mag in the time scale of an hour.

Gender as a Moderator of the Relation Between Age Cohort and Three-Dimensional Wisdom in Iranian Culture.

PubMed

Cheraghi, Fereshte; Kadivar, Parvin; Ardelt, Monika; Asgari, Ali; Farzad, Valiollah

2015-07-01

This study examined whether gender moderated the association between age cohort and the cognitive, reflective, and compassionate dimensions of wisdom, using an Iranian sample of 439 adults from three age cohorts: young (18-34), middle-aged (35-54), and older (55 and above). Results indicated that the interaction effect between gender and age cohort was significant for three-dimensional wisdom and all three wisdom dimensions. Compared with younger women and older men, older women tended to have less education and to score lower on the cognitive wisdom dimension, but they had similar average scores as older men on the compassionate wisdom dimension. Overall, the association between age and wisdom was only positive for men, due mainly to the positive relation between age and the reflective and compassionate wisdom dimensions for men after adjusting for education. The results are interpreted with reference to generation gaps, socialization of men versus women, and life experiences and opportunities. © The Author(s) 2015.

Mortality of breast cancer in Taiwan, 1971–2010: Temporal changes and an age–period–cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Ho, M.-L.; Hsiao, Y.-H.; Su, S.-Y.

2015-01-01

The current paper describes the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer mortality in Taiwan. Female breast cancer mortality data were collected from the Taiwan death registries for 1971–2010. The annual percentage changes, age- standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and age–period–cohort model were calculated. The mortality rates increased with advancing age groups when fixing the period. The percentage change in the breast cancer mortality rate increased from 54.79% at aged 20–44 years, to 149.78% in those aged 45–64 years (between 1971–75 and 2006–10). The mortality rates in the 45–64 age group increased steadily from 1971 to 1975 and 2006–10. The 1951 birth cohorts (actual birth cohort; 1947–55) showed peak mortalities in both the 50–54 and 45–49 age groups. We found that the 1951 birth cohorts had the greatest mortality risk from breast cancer. This might be attributed to the DDT that was used in large amounts to prevent deaths from malaria in Taiwan. However, future researches require DDT data to evaluate the association between breast cancer and DDT use. PMID:25020211

Cohort change and the diffusion of environmental concern: A cross-national analysis

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Pampel, Fred C.

2013-01-01

This study explores value change across cohorts for a multinational population sample. Employing a diffusion-of-innovations approach, we combine competing theories predicting the relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and environmentalism: post-materialism and affluence theories, and global environmentalism theory. The diffusion argument suggests that high-SES groups first adopt pro-environmental views, but as time passes by, environmentalism diffuses to lower-SES groups. We test the diffusion argument using a sample of 18 countries for two waves (years 1993 and 2000) from the International Social Survey Project (ISSP). Cross-classified multilevel modeling allows us to identify a non-linear interaction between cohort and education, our core measure of SES, in predicting environmental concern, while controlling for age and period. We find support for the diffusion argument and demonstrate that the positive effect of education on environmental concern first increases among older cohorts, then starts to level off until a bend-point is reached for individuals born around 1940 and becomes progressively weaker for younger cohorts. PMID:24179313

Age- and cohort-related variance of type-A behavior over 24 years: the Young Finns Study.

PubMed

Hintsa, Taina; Jokela, Markus; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa

2014-12-01

Over the recent decades, the incidence of cardiovascular and heart diseases has decreased while levels of type-A behavior, i.e., a potential risk factor, appear to have increased. However, the long-term developmental patterns of type-A behavior is poorly understood. Both age- and cohort-related changes may be involved in these developments. The purpose of this study was to examine an age- and cohort-related changes of Hunter-Wolf type-A behavior from adolescence to adulthood. Type-A behavior and its components (aggressiveness, leadership, hard driving, and eagerness energy) were assessed using the Hunter-Wolf A-B rating scale at five time points (1983, 1986, 1989, 2001, and 2007) in a population-based sample consisting of six birth cohorts born between 1962 and 1977 (n = 3,341, a total of 10,506 person observations). Development of type-A behavior and its components was examined with cohort-sequential multilevel modeling. Aggressiveness decreased with age, eagerness energy, hard driving, and global type-A behavior increased, and leadership exhibited no mean level changes. Younger cohorts had higher aggressiveness, lower hard driving, and global type-A behavior. The findings suggest that in order to understand the health consequences of type-A behavior, both life span and societal changes should be considered.

Greek medicine and Babylonian wisdom: circulation of knowledge and channels of transmission in the archaic and classical periods.

PubMed

Thomas, R

2004-01-01

This paper considers questions of transmission and circulation of knowledge between Greeks and Babylonians, and in particular within the medical sphere. It compares evidence for the extensive exchange of goods and ideas with the Near East in the archaic period and considers the channels and means of transmission involved. It suggests, however, that the evidence of Hippocratic medicine and of Herodotus implies that interaction in the medical sphere followed the main areas of contact through trade and colonisation, and above all Egypt, rather than Mesopotamia. Contact with Babylonian wisdom was to reappear only in the late classical and Hellenistic period.

Patterns of drug use from adolescence to young adulthood: I. Periods of risk for initiation, continued use, and discontinuation.

PubMed Central

Kandel, D B; Logan, J A

1984-01-01

Patterns of initiation, continued use, and decline in drug use are described on the basis of detailed drug histories in a longitudinal cohort representative of former New York State adolescents. In this cohort, the period of major risk for initiation to cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana, is completed for the most part by age 20, and to illicit drugs other than cocaine by age 21. Those who have not experimented with any of these substances by that age are unlikely to do so thereafter. Initiation into prescribed psychoactive drugs occurs at a later age than for the licit and illicit drugs and continues through the age period covered by the survey. A potential maturational trend in marijuana use in this cohort is apparent with a decline beginning approximately at age 22.5 for most usage patterns. The periods of highest marijuana and alcohol usage decline beginning at ages 20-21 and contrast sharply with cigarettes which exhibit climbing rates of highest use through the end of the surveillance period (age 25). Overall patterns are similar for men and women, with men initiating all drugs at higher rates than women, except for prescribed psychoactives . PMID:6611092

[A non-classical approach to medical practices: Michel Foucault and Actor-Network Theory].

PubMed

Bińczyk, E

2001-01-01

The text presents an analysis of medical practices stemming from two sources: Michel Foucault's conception and the research of Annemarie Mol and John Law, representatives of a trend known as Actor-Network Theory. Both approaches reveal significant theoretical kinship: they can be successfully consigned to the framework of non-classical sociology of science. I initially refer to the cited conceptions as a version of non-classical sociology of medicine. The identity of non-classical sociology of medicine hinges on the fact that it undermines the possibility of objective definitions of disease, health and body. These are rather approached as variable social and historical phenomena, co-constituted by medical practices. To both Foucault and Mol the main object of interest was not medicine as such, but rather the network of medical practices. Mol and Law sketch a new theoretical perspective for the analysis of medical practices. They attempt to go beyond the dichotomous scheme of thinking about the human body as an object of medical research and the subject of private experience. Research on patients suffering blood-sugar deficiency provide the empirical background for the thesis of Actor-Network Theory representatives. Michel Foucault's conceptions are extremely critical of medical practices. The French researcher describes the processes of 'medicalising' Western society as the emergence of a new type of power. He attempts to sensitise the reader to the ethical dimension of the processes of medicalising society.

The Mediterranean healthy eating, ageing, and lifestyle (MEAL) study: rationale and study design.

PubMed

Grosso, Giuseppe; Marventano, Stefano; D'Urso, Maurizio; Mistretta, Antonio; Galvano, Fabio

2017-08-01

There is accumulating evidence suggesting that Mediterranean lifestyles, including nutrition and sleeping patterns as well as social integration, may play a role in reducing age-related diseases. However, the literature is mostly deficient of evidence provided by Italian Mediterranean islands that more closely adhered to the originally described lifestyles. In this paper, we described the rationale and the study design of the Mediterranean healthy Eating, Ageing, and Lifestyle (MEAL) study, a prospective population-based cohort established in Sicily, southern Italy. The main exposures investigated are classical determinants of health, including demographic, nutritional habits, smoking and physical activity status, as well as eating-related behaviors, sleeping habits, sun exposure, social resources, and perceived stress. Anthropometric measurements will be collected. The main outcomes included depression, quality of life, and, after the follow-up period, also cardiovascular disease and cancer. The MEAL study may provide important data to increase our knowledge regarding the prevalence, incidence, and risk factors of age-related disorders in the Mediterranean region.

A multiple biomarker risk score for guiding clinical decisions using a decision curve approach.

PubMed

Hughes, Maria F; Saarela, Olli; Blankenberg, Stefan; Zeller, Tanja; Havulinna, Aki S; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Yarnell, John; Schnabel, Renate B; Tiret, Laurence; Salomaa, Veikko; Evans, Alun; Kee, Frank

2012-08-01

We assessed whether a cardiovascular risk model based on classic risk factors (e.g. cholesterol, blood pressure) could refine disease prediction if it included novel biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin I) using a decision curve approach which can incorporate clinical consequences. We evaluated whether a model including biomarkers and classic risk factors could improve prediction of 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD; chronic heart disease and ischaemic stroke) against a classic risk factor model using a decision curve approach in two prospective MORGAM cohorts. This included 7739 men and women with 457 CVD cases from the FINRISK97 cohort; and 2524 men with 259 CVD cases from PRIME Belfast. The biomarker model improved disease prediction in FINRISK across the high-risk group (20-40%) but not in the intermediate risk group, at the 23% risk threshold net benefit was 0.0033 (95% CI 0.0013-0.0052). However, in PRIME Belfast the net benefit of decisions guided by the decision curve was improved across intermediate risk thresholds (10-20%). At p(t) = 10% in PRIME, the net benefit was 0.0059 (95% CI 0.0007-0.0112) with a net increase in 6 true positive cases per 1000 people screened and net decrease of 53 false positive cases per 1000 potentially leading to 5% fewer treatments in patients not destined for an event. The biomarker model improves 10-year CVD prediction at intermediate and high-risk thresholds and in particular, could be clinically useful at advising middle-aged European males of their CVD risk.

Cohort profile: the Spanish WORKing life Social Security (WORKss) cohort study.

PubMed

López Gómez, María Andrée; Durán, Xavier; Zaballa, Elena; Sanchez-Niubo, Albert; Delclos, George L; Benavides, Fernando G

2016-03-07

The global economy is changing the labour market and social protection systems in Europe. The effect of both changes on health needs to be monitored in view of an ageing population and the resulting increase in prevalence of chronic health conditions. The Spanish WORKing life Social Security (WORKss) cohort study provides unique longitudinal data to study the impact of labour trajectories and employment conditions on health, in terms of sickness absence, permanent disability and death. The WORKss cohort originated from the Continuous Working Life Sample (CWLS) generated by the General Directorate for the Organization of the Social Security in Spain. The CWLS contains a 4% representative sample of all individuals in contact with the Social Security system. The WORKss cohort exclusively includes individuals with a labour trajectory from 1981 or later. In 2004, the cohort was initiated with 1,022 ,79 Social Security members: 840,770 (82.2%) contributors and 182,009 (17.8%) beneficiaries aged 16 and older. The WORKss cohort includes demographic characteristics, chronological data about employment history, retirement, permanent disability and death. These data make possible the measurement of incidence of permanent disability, the number of potential years of working life lost, and the number of contracts and inactive periods with the Social Security system. The WORKss cohort was linked to temporary sickness absence registries to study medical diagnoses that lead to permanent disability and consequently to an earlier exit from the labour market in unhealthy conditions. Thanks to its administrative source, the WORKss cohort study will continue follow-up in the coming years, keeping the representativeness of the Spanish population affiliated to the Social Security system. The linkage between the WORKss cohort and temporary sickness absence registries is envisioned to continue. Future plans include the linkage of the cohort with mortality registries. Published by the BMJ

High doses of folic acid in the periconceptional period and risk of low weight for gestational age at birth in a population based cohort study.

PubMed

Navarrete-Muñoz, Eva María; Valera-Gran, Desirée; Garcia-de-la-Hera, Manuela; Gonzalez-Palacios, Sandra; Riaño, Isolina; Murcia, Mario; Lertxundi, Aitana; Guxens, Mònica; Tardón, Adonina; Amiano, Pilar; Vrijheid, Martine; Rebagliato, Marisa; Vioque, Jesus

2017-11-27

We investigated the association between maternal use of folic acid (FA) during pregnancy and child anthropometric measures at birth. We included 2302 mother-child pairs from a population-based birth cohort in Spain (INMA Project). FA dosages at first and third trimester of pregnancy were assessed using a specific battery questionnaire and were categorized in non-user, < 1000, 1000-4999, and ≥ 5000 µg/day. Anthropometric measures at birth (weight in grams, length and head circumference in centimetres) were obtained from medical records. Small for gestational age according to weight (SGA-w), length (SGA-l) and head circumference (SGA-hc) were defined using the 10th percentile based on Spanish standardized growth reference charts. Multiple linear and logistic regression analyses were used to explore the association between FA dosages in different stages of pregnancy and child anthropometric measures at birth. In the multiple linear regression analysis, we found a tendency for a negative association between the use of high dosages of FA (≥ 5000 µg/day) in the periconceptional period of pregnancy and weight at birth compared to mothers who were non-users of FA (β = - 73.83; 95% CI - 151.71, 4.06). In the multiple logistic regression, a greater risk of SGA-w was also evident among children whose mothers took FA dosages of 1000-4999 (OR = 2.21; 95% CI 1.17, 4.19) and of ≥ 5000 µg/day (OR = 2.32; 95% CI 1.06, 5.08) compared to mothers non-users of FA in the periconceptional period of pregnancy. Our findings suggest that a high dosage of FA (≥ 1000 µg/day) may be associated with an increased risk of SGA-w at birth.

Childhood conduct disorder trajectories, prior risk factors and cannabis use at age 16: birth cohort study

PubMed Central

Heron, Jon; Barker, Edward D; Joinson, Carol; Lewis, Glyn; Hickman, Matthew; Munafò, Marcus; Macleod, John

2013-01-01

AimsTo investigate the prevalence of cannabis use and problem use in boys and girls at age 16 years, and to investigate the role of adversity in early life and of conduct disorder between the ages of 4 and 13 years as risk factors for these outcomes. DesignBirth cohort study. SettingEngland. ParticipantsA total of 4159 (2393 girls) participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort providing information on cannabis use at age 16. MeasurementsCannabis use and problem cannabis use at age 16 were assessed by postal questionnaire. Material adversity, maternal substance use, maternal mental health and child conduct disorder were all assessed by maternal report. FindingsCannabis use was more common among girls than boys (21.4% versus 18.3%, P = 0.005). Problem cannabis use was more common in boys than girls (3.6% versus 2.8%, P = 0.007). Early-onset persistent conduct problems were associated strongly with problem cannabis use [odds ratio (OR) = 6.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.06–10.28]. Residence in subsidized housing (OR = 3.10, 95% CI = 1.95, 4.92); maternal cannabis use (OR 8.84, 95% CI 5.64–13.9) and any maternal smoking in the postnatal period (OR = 2.69, 95% CI = 1.90–3.81) all predicted problem cannabis use. Attributable risks for adolescent problem cannabis use associated with the above factors were 25, 13, 17 and 24%, respectively. ConclusionsMaternal smoking and cannabis use, early material disadvantage and early-onset persistent conduct problems are important risk factors for adolescent problem cannabis use. This may have implications for prevention. PMID:23734913

Wetting of heterogeneous substrates. A classical density-functional-theory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yatsyshin, Peter; Parry, Andrew O.; Rascón, Carlos; Duran-Olivencia, Miguel A.; Kalliadasis, Serafim

2017-11-01

Wetting is a nucleation of a third phase (liquid) on the interface between two different phases (solid and gas). In many experimentally accessible cases of wetting, the interplay between the substrate structure, and the fluid-fluid and fluid-substrate intermolecular interactions leads to the appearance of a whole ``zoo'' of exciting interface phase transitions, associated with the formation of nano-droplets/bubbles, and thin films. Practical applications of wetting at small scales are numerous and include the design of lab-on-a-chip devices and superhydrophobic surfaces. In this talk, we will use a fully microscopic approach to explore the phase space of a planar wall, decorated with patches of different hydrophobicity, and demonstrate the highly non-trivial behaviour of the liquid-gas interface near the substrate. We will present fluid density profiles, adsorption isotherms and wetting phase diagrams. Our analysis is based on a formulation of statistical mechanics, commonly known as classical density-functional theory. It provides a computationally-friendly and rigorous framework, suitable for probing small-scale physics of classical fluids and other soft-matter systems. EPSRC Grants No. EP/L027186,EP/K503733;ERC Advanced Grant No. 247031.

Cohort Study of Severe Bronchiolitis during Infancy and Risk of Asthma by Age 5 Years.

PubMed

Balekian, Diana S; Linnemann, Rachel W; Hasegawa, Kohei; Thadhani, Ravi; Camargo, Carlos A

Severe bronchiolitis (ie, bronchiolitis requiring hospital admission) is thought to markedly increase asthma risk, with 30%-50% developing asthma by age 5 years. To date, studies of this association are small, and most are from outside the United States. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between severe bronchiolitis and risk of asthma in a US birth cohort. We studied a cohort nested within the Massachusetts General Hospital Obstetric Maternal Study (MOMS), a prospective cohort of pregnant women enrolled during 1998-2006. Children of mothers enrolled in MOMS were included in the analysis if they received care within our health system (n = 3653). Diagnoses and medications were extracted from the children's electronic health records; we also examined pregnancy and perinatal risk factors collected for the underlying pregnancy study. The birth cohort was 52% male, 49% white, and 105 infants (2.9%) had severe bronchiolitis. Overall, 421 children (11.5%) developed asthma by age 5 years. Among the children with severe bronchiolitis, 27.6% developed asthma by age 5 years. In multivariable logistic regression adjusting for 12 risk factors, severe bronchiolitis remained a strong risk factor for developing asthma by age 5 years (odds ratio 2.57; 95% confidence interval 1.61-4.09). In a large Boston birth cohort, the frequency of severe bronchiolitis and childhood asthma was similar to published data. Among children with severe bronchiolitis, the risk of developing asthma was lower than prior studies but still high (27.6%). This difference may be due to different study designs, populations, and outcome definitions studied. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anthropometric Indices Predict the Development of Hypertension in Normotensive and Pre-Hypertensive Middle-Aged Women in Tianjin, China: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Qing; Wang, Zhuoqun; Yao, Wei; Wu, Xianming; Huang, Jingjing; Huang, Lei

2018-01-01

Background The aims of this study were to investigate the relationship between optimal anthropometric indices and their cut-off values and the incidence of hypertension in a cohort of middle-aged women in China. Material/Methods A cohort of 812 women, aged between 40–70 years were recruited between May 2011 and June 2013. An ideal baseline blood pressure was defined as <120/80 mmHg; pre-hypertension was 120–139/80–89 mmHg; hypertension was ≥140/≥90 mmHg. Anthropometric measurements included waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-height ratio (WHtR). The cohort was divided into an ideal blood pressure group (Group 1) and a pre-hypertensive group (Group 2). Two-year follow-up blood pressure measurements were performed. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis determined the optimal anthropometric indices and cut-off values for developing hypertension. Results At two-year follow-up, hypertension developed in 9.0% (n=31) in Group 1 and 32.3% (n=121) in Group 2. Logistic regression analysis showed that in both groups, women in the highest quartile for WC, BMI, WHR, and WHtR had a significantly increased risk of developing hypertension compared with the lowest quartile (P<0.05). ROC curve area under the curve (AUC) for these anthropometric indices were greater in Group 1, and for WC in Groups 1 and 2, with the optimal cut-off values greater in Group 1. Conclusions In a cohort of middle-aged women in China, anthropometric indices of obesity were predictive of the development of hypertension during a two-year follow-up period. PMID:29601569

The impact of obesity on US mortality levels: the importance of age and cohort factors in population estimates.

PubMed

Masters, Ryan K; Reither, Eric N; Powers, Daniel A; Yang, Y Claire; Burger, Andrew E; Link, Bruce G

2013-10-01

To estimate the percentage of excess death for US Black and White men and women associated with high body mass, we examined the combined effects of age variation in the obesity-mortality relationship and cohort variation in age-specific obesity prevalence. We examined 19 National Health Interview Survey waves linked to individual National Death Index mortality records, 1986-2006, for age and cohort patterns in the population-level association between obesity and US adult mortality. The estimated percentage of adult deaths between 1986 and 2006 associated with overweight and obesity was 5.0% and 15.6% for Black and White men, and 26.8% and 21.7% for Black and White women, respectively. We found a substantially stronger association than previous research between obesity and mortality risk at older ages, and an increasing percentage of mortality attributable to obesity across birth cohorts. Previous research has likely underestimated obesity's impact on US mortality. Methods attentive to cohort variation in obesity prevalence and age variation in obesity's effect on mortality risk suggest that obesity significantly shapes US mortality levels, placing it at the forefront of concern for public health action.

Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS)

PubMed Central

Justice, Amy C.; Dombrowski, Elizabeth; Conigliaro, Joseph; Fultz, Shawn L.; Gibson, Deborah; Madenwald, Tamra; Goulet, Joseph; Simberkoff, Michael; Butt, Adeel A.; Rimland, David; Rodriguez-Barradas, Maria C.; Gibert, Cynthia L.; Oursler, Kris Ann K.; Brown, Sheldon; Leaf, David A.; Goetz, Matthew B.; Bryant, Kendall

2010-01-01

Background The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) is a study of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected and uninfected patients seen in infectious disease and general medical clinics. VACS includes the earlier 3 and 5 site studies (VACS 3 and VACS 5) as well as the ongoing 8 site study. Objectives We sought to provide background and context for analyses based upon VACS data, including study design and rationale as well as its basic protocol and the baseline characteristics of the enrolled sample. Research Design We undertook a prospectively consented multisite observational study of veterans in care with and without HIV infection. Measures Data were derived from patient and provider self report, telephone interviews, blood and DNA samples, focus groups, and full access to the national VA “paperless” electronic medical record system. Results More than 7200 veterans have been enrolled in at least one of the studies. The 8 site study (VACS) has enrolled 2979 HIV-infected and 3019 HIV-uninfected age–race–site matched comparators and has achieved stratified enrollment targets for race/ethnicity and age and 99% of its total target enrollment as of October 30, 2005. Participants in VACS are similar to other veterans receiving care within the VA. VACS participants are older and more predominantly black than those reported by the Centers for Disease Control. Conclusions VACS has assembled a rich, in-depth, and representative sample of veterans in care with and without HIV infection to conduct longitudinal analyses of questions concerning the association between alcohol use and related comorbid and AIDS-defining conditions. PMID:16849964

Obsessive-compulsive symptoms during the postpartum period. A prospective cohort.

PubMed

Miller, Emily S; Chu, Christine; Gollan, Jacqueline; Gossett, Dana R

2013-01-01

To estimate the prevalence of postpartum obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) symptoms and to ascertain risk factors for this condition. This is a prospective cohort of postpartum women carried out from June to September 2009. A total of 461 women were recruited after delivery at a tertiary care institution. Demographic, psychiatric, and obstetric information were collected from each participant. Patients were contacted at 2 weeks and at 6 months postpartum and completed screening tests for depression, anxiety, and OCD. Eleven percent of women screened positive for OCD symptoms at 2 weeks postpartum. At 6 months postpartum almost half of those women had persistent symptoms, and an additional 5.4% had developed new OCD symptoms. Concomitant positive screens for anxiety and depression were predictive factors for the development of OCD symptoms. Prior population-based studies estimate the prevalence of OCD to be approximately 2-3%. We found much higher rates among women in the postpartum period. The postpartum period is a high-risk time for the development of OCD symptoms. When such symptoms develop, they have a high likelihood of persisting for at least 6 months.

Prevalence of disability in three birth cohorts at old age over time spans of 10 and 20 years.

PubMed

Winblad, I; Jääskeläinen, M; Kivelä, S L; Hiltunen, P; Laippala, P

2001-10-01

The prevalence of disability at the age of 75+ measured by the Katz Index of Activities of Daily Living (ADL) was compared among three birth cohorts: those born < or = 1903 (n = 348), those born < or = 1913 (n = 586), and those born < or = 1923 (n = 758). Significant risk factors for disability were female sex and age; the cohort effect was not significant. The prevalence rates of disability were 29.0% (95% CI 24.2-33.8), 34.8% (30.9-38.7), and 28.8% (25.5-32.0) for the first, second, and third cohorts. In the age group 75-79 years the rates were 20.1% (95% CI 13.8-26.4), 25.5% (20.2-30.7), and 14.4% (10.6-18.1). The change was due to the declining disability of women. The distributions in the three cohorts based on the numbers of ADL limitations did not differ. As far as the whole aged populations were concerned, longer life was not accompanied by improving health.

Gestational Age and Neonatal Brain Microstructure in Term Born Infants: A Birth Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Broekman, Birit F. P.; Wang, Changqing; Li, Yue; Rifkin-Graboi, Anne; Saw, Seang Mei; Chong, Yap-Seng; Kwek, Kenneth; Gluckman, Peter D.; Fortier, Marielle V.; Meaney, Michael J.; Qiu, Anqi

2014-01-01

Objective Understanding healthy brain development in utero is crucial in order to detect abnormal developmental trajectories due to developmental disorders. However, in most studies neuroimaging was done after a significant postnatal period, and in those studies that performed neuroimaging on fetuses, the quality of data has been affected due to complications of scanning during pregnancy. To understand healthy brain development between 37–41 weeks of gestational age, our study assessed the in utero growth of the brain in healthy term born babies with DTI scanning soon after birth. Methods A cohort of 93 infants recruited from maternity hospitals in Singapore underwent diffusion tensor imaging between 5 to 17 days after birth. We did a cross-sectional examination of white matter microstructure of the brain among healthy term infants as a function of gestational age via voxel-based analysis on fractional anisotropy. Results Greater gestational age at birth in term infants was associated with larger fractional anisotropy values in early developing brain regions, when corrected for age at scan. Specifically, it was associated with a cluster located at the corpus callosum (corrected p<0.001), as well as another cluster spanning areas of the anterior corona radiata, anterior limb of internal capsule, and external capsule (corrected p<0.001). Conclusions Our findings show variation in brain maturation associated with gestational age amongst ‘term’ infants, with increased brain maturation when born with a relatively higher gestational age in comparison to those infants born with a relatively younger gestational age. Future studies should explore if these differences in brain maturation between 37 and 41 weeks of gestational age will persist over time due to development outside the womb. PMID:25535959

Sequential cohort design applying propensity score matching to analyze the comparative effectiveness of atorvastatin and simvastatin in preventing cardiovascular events.

PubMed

Helin-Salmivaara, Arja; Lavikainen, Piia; Aarnio, Emma; Huupponen, Risto; Korhonen, Maarit Jaana

2014-01-01

Sequential cohort design (SCD) applying matching for propensity scores (PS) in accrual periods has been proposed to mitigate bias caused by channeling when calendar time is a proxy for strong confounders. We studied the channeling of patients according to atorvastatin and simvastatin initiation in Finland, starting from the market introduction of atorvastatin in 1998, and explored the SCD PS approach to analyzing the comparative effectiveness of atorvastatin versus simvastatin in the prevention of cardiovascular events (CVE). Initiators of atorvastatin or simvastatin use in the 45-75-year age range in 1998-2006 were characterized by their propensity of receiving atorvastatin over simvastatin, as estimated for 17 six-month periods. Atorvastatin (10 mg) and simvastatin (20 mg) initiators were matched 1∶1 on the PS, as estimated for the whole cohort and within each period. Cox regression models were fitted conventionally, and also for the PS matched cohort and the periodically PS matched cohort, to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) for CVEs. Atorvastatin (10 mg) was associated with a 11%-12% lower incidence of CVE in comparison with simvastatin (20 mg). The HR estimates were the same for a conventional Cox model (0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.91), for the analysis in which the PS was used to match across all periods and the Cox model was adjusted for strong confounders (0.89, 0.85-0.92), and for the analysis in which PS matching was applied within sequential periods (0.88, 0.84-0.92). The HR from a traditional PS matched analysis was 0.80 (0.77-0.83). The SCD PS approach produced effect estimates similar to those obtained in matching for PS within the whole cohort and adjusting the outcome model for strong confounders, but at the cost of efficiency. A traditional PS matched analysis without further adjustment in the outcome model produced estimates further away from unity.

Cohort Profile Update: The China Jintan Child Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Liu, Jianghong; Cao, Siyuan; Chen, Zehang; Raine, Adrian; Hanlon, Alexandra; Ai, Yuexian; Zhou, Guoping; Yan, Chonghuai; Leung, Patrick W; McCauley, Linda; Pinto-Martin, Jennifer

2015-01-01

The China Jintan Child Cohort study began in 2004 with 1656 pre-school participants and a research focus on studying the impact of environmental exposures, such as lead, on children’s neurobehavioural outcomes. This population cohort now includes around 1000 of the original participants, who have been assessed three times over a period of 10 years. Since the original IJE cohort profile publication in 2010, participants have experienced a critical developmental transition from pre-school to school age and then adolescence. The study has also witnessed an increase in breadth and depth of data collection from the original aim of risk assessment. This cohort has added new directions to investigate the mechanisms and protective factors for the relationship between early health factors and child physical and mental health outcomes, with an emphasis on neurobehavioural consequences. The study now encompasses 11 domains, composed of repeated measures of the original variables and new domains of biomarkers, sleep, psychophysiology, neurocognition, personality, peer relationship, mindfulness and family dynamics. Depth of evaluation has increased from parent/teacher report to self/peer report and intergenerational family report. Consequently, the cohort has additional directions to include: (i) classmates of the original cohort participants for peer relationship assessment; and (ii) parental and grandparental measures to assess personality and dynamics within families. We welcome interest in our study and ask investigators to contact the corresponding author for additional information on data acquisition. PMID:26323725

Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

2009-01-01

Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

What factors influence healthy aging? A person-centered approach among older adults in Taiwan.

PubMed

Liu, Li-Fan; Su, Pei-Fang

2017-05-01

The present study aimed to identify the health profiles of older adults by using latent class analysis to investigate health heterogeneity and to determine what factors predicted healthy aging among an oldest-old sample cohort that was followed up for 14 years in Taiwan. Data were drawn from five waves (carried out in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2003 and 2007) of the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging to examine the changes in health heterogeneity in a nationally representative oldest-old cohort of Taiwanese. Overall, data from a total of 11 145 observations of 3155 older adults were considered. The influential factors predicting health changes were analyzed by using a generalized estimating equation. The results showed that four health profiles were identified among the aging population observed in the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging. With increasing age, the combined effects of the physical functioning, cognitive and emotional health, and comorbidities of older adults significantly impact their health changes. Apart from health deteriorating with age and sex disparities, educational and economic status, health behaviors, and social participation at the individual level were found to be the robust factors in predicting healthy aging. In considering what factors impact healthy aging, we suggest that a person-centered approach would be useful and critical for policy makers to understand the compositions of health profiles and the influencing factors in view of a life-course perspective. Based on the factors identified as influencing healthy aging at the individual level, it is imperative from a policy-making perspective to maximize opportunities for healthy aging. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 697-707. © 2016 Japan Geriatrics Society.

γ/δ T cell subsets in human aging using the classical α/β T cell model.

PubMed

Vasudev, Anusha; Ying, Crystal Tan Tze; Ayyadhury, Shamini; Puan, Kia Joo; Andiappan, Anand Kumar; Nyunt, Ma Shwe Zin; Shadan, Nurhidaya Binte; Mustafa, Seri; Low, Ivy; Rotzschke, Olaf; Fulop, Tamas; Ng, Tze Pin; Larbi, Anis

2014-10-01

Aging is associated with an increased susceptibility to infections and diseases. It has also been associated with reduced functionality and altered distribution of immune cells, especially T cells. Whereas classical α/β T cells, especially CD8(+) T cells, were shown to be highly susceptible to aging, the effects of viral persistent stimulations on the fate of γ/δ T cells are much less documented. Healthy, elderly individuals of Chinese ethnical background were recruited under the aegis of SLAS-II. In this observational study, γ/δ T cell populations were characterized by flow cytometry and compared with the α/β CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells in elderly and young controls. In our study, we identified a reduced frequency of γ/δ T cells but not α/β T cells with aging. The classical markers of α/β T cell aging, including CD28, CD27, and CD57, did not prove significant for γ/δ T cells. The extreme range of expression of these markers in γ/δ T cells was responsible for the lack of relationship between γ/δ T cell subsets, CD4/CD8 ratio, and anti-CMV titers that was significant for α/β T cells and, especially, CD8(+) T cells. Although markers of aging for γ/δ T cells are not clearly identified, our data collectively suggest that the presence of CD27 γ/δ T cells is associated with markers of α/β T cell aging. © 2014 Society for Leukocyte Biology.

Childhood Risk Factors for Lifetime Anorexia Nervosa by Age 30 Years in a National Birth Cohort

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nicholls, Dasha E.; Viner, Russell M.

2009-01-01

Whether previously identified childhood risk factors for anorexia nervosa (AN) predict self-reported lifetime AN by age 30 is examined. The cohort confirmed four risk and two protective factors out of the 22 suggested risk factors. The study used data from the 1970 British Cohort Study.

Preterm or not--an evaluation of estimates of gestational age in a cohort of women from Rural Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Karl, Stephan; Li Wai Suen, Connie S N; Unger, Holger W; Ome-Kaius, Maria; Mola, Glen; White, Lisa; Wangnapi, Regina A; Rogerson, Stephen J; Mueller, Ivo

2015-01-01

Knowledge of accurate gestational age is required for comprehensive pregnancy care and is an essential component of research evaluating causes of preterm birth. In industrialised countries gestational age is determined with the help of fetal biometry in early pregnancy. Lack of ultrasound and late presentation to antenatal clinic limits this practice in low-resource settings. Instead, clinical estimators of gestational age are used, but their accuracy remains a matter of debate. In a cohort of 688 singleton pregnancies from rural Papua New Guinea, delivery gestational age was calculated from Ballard score, last menstrual period, symphysis-pubis fundal height at first visit and quickening as well as mid- and late pregnancy fetal biometry. Published models using sequential fundal height measurements and corrected last menstrual period to estimate gestational age were also tested. Novel linear models that combined clinical measurements for gestational age estimation were developed. Predictions were compared with the reference early pregnancy ultrasound (<25 gestational weeks) using correlation, regression and Bland-Altman analyses and ranked for their capability to predict preterm birth using the harmonic mean of recall and precision (F-measure). Average bias between reference ultrasound and clinical methods ranged from 0-11 days (95% confidence levels: 14-42 days). Preterm birth was best predicted by mid-pregnancy ultrasound (F-measure: 0.72), and neuromuscular Ballard score provided the least reliable preterm birth prediction (F-measure: 0.17). The best clinical methods to predict gestational age and preterm birth were last menstrual period and fundal height (F-measures 0.35). A linear model combining both measures improved prediction of preterm birth (F-measure: 0.58). Estimation of gestational age without ultrasound is prone to significant error. In the absence of ultrasound facilities, last menstrual period and fundal height are among the more reliable clinical

Classical risk factors of cardiovascular disease among Chinese male steel workers: a prospective cohort study for 20 years.

PubMed

Ji, Jingfeng; Pan, Enchun; Li, Jianxin; Chen, Jichun; Cao, Jie; Sun, Dongling; Lu, Xiangfeng; Chen, Shufeng; Gu, Dongfeng; Duan, Xiufang; Wu, Xigui; Huang, Jianfeng

2011-06-25

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) constitutes a major public health problem in China and worldwide. We aimed to examine classical risk factors and their magnitudes for CVD in a Chinese cohort with over 20 years follow-up. A cohort of 5092 male steelworkers recruited from 1974 to 1980 in Beijing of China was followed up for an average of 20.84 years. Cox proportional-hazards regression model were used to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event in the study participants who were free of CVD at the baseline. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) associated with every 20 mmHg rise in systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 1.63 in this Chinese male population, which was higher than in Caucasians. Compared to non-smokers, men who smoked not less than one-pack-a-day had a HR of 2.43 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-3.38). The HR (95% CI) for every 20 mg/dl increase in total serum cholesterol (TC) and for every point rise in body mass index (BMI) was 1.13 (1.04-1.23) and 1.06 (1.02-1.09), respectively. Our study documents that hypertension, smoking, overweight and hypercholesterolemia are major conventional risk factors of CVD in Chinese male adults. Continued strengthening programs for prevention and intervention on these risk factors are needed to reduce the incidence of CVD in China.

Education and fertility decline in China during transitional times: A cohort approach.

PubMed

Piotrowski, Martin; Tong, Yuying

2016-01-01

We examine the effect of education on birth outcomes in China during the period of economic transition and large-scale changes in mass education and population control measures. Retrospective micro data from the 2008 Chinese General Social Survey and discrete time event history analysis are used to examine the fertility history of several cohorts of women born between 1945 and 1968. We observed births at different parities, distinguishing the education effect across cohorts and rural/urban sectors. We found differences across cohorts consistent with unique features of the Chinese context, such as the radical egalitarian era of educational expansion, and the Reform Era. We also found that despite the increase in some education levels across cohorts (e.g., junior high school in rural areas), birth chances were more likely to be concentrated among less educated women, suggesting the impact of factors related to returns to education and hence the desire for children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Lost Millennium: Psychology during the Middle Ages

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henley, Tracy B.; Thorne, B. Michael

2005-01-01

The medieval period -- roughly the 1,000 years from the classical Greco-Roman age to the Renaissance and modern era -- has long been neglected in the history of psychology. Various reasons have been offered for why this period is treated so lightly, for example, that it was a Dark Age, or that it was dominated by anti-intellectual Christian…

Classic and Golli Myelin Basic Protein have distinct developmental trajectories in human visual cortex.

PubMed

Siu, Caitlin R; Balsor, Justin L; Jones, David G; Murphy, Kathryn M

2015-01-01

Traditionally, myelin is viewed as insulation around axons, however, more recent studies have shown it also plays an important role in plasticity, axonal metabolism, and neuroimmune signaling. Myelin is a complex multi-protein structure composed of hundreds of proteins, with Myelin Basic Protein (MBP) being the most studied. MBP has two families: Classic-MBP that is necessary for activity driven compaction of myelin around axons, and Golli-MBP that is found in neurons, oligodendrocytes, and T-cells. Furthermore, Golli-MBP has been called a "molecular link" between the nervous and immune systems. In visual cortex specifically, myelin proteins interact with immune processes to affect experience-dependent plasticity. We studied myelin in human visual cortex using Western blotting to quantify Classic- and Golli-MBP expression in post-mortem tissue samples ranging in age from 20 days to 80 years. We found that Classic- and Golli-MBP have different patterns of change across the lifespan. Classic-MBP gradually increases to 42 years and then declines into aging. Golli-MBP has early developmental changes that are coincident with milestones in visual system sensitive period, and gradually increases into aging. There are three stages in the balance between Classic- and Golli-MBP expression, with Golli-MBP dominating early, then shifting to Classic-MBP, and back to Golli-MBP in aging. Also Golli-MBP has a wave of high inter-individual variability during childhood. These results about cortical MBP expression are timely because they compliment recent advances in MRI techniques that produce high resolution maps of cortical myelin in normal and diseased brain. In addition, the unique pattern of Golli-MBP expression across the lifespan suggests that it supports high levels of neuroimmune interaction in cortical development and in aging.

Testicular cancer: marked birth cohort effects on incidence and a decline in mortality in southern Netherlands since 1970.

PubMed

Verhoeven, Rob; Houterman, Saskia; Kiemeney, Bart; Koldewijn, Evert; Coebergh, Jan Willem

2008-02-01

The aim of our study was to interpret the changing incidence, and to describe the mortality of patients with testicular cancer in the south of the Netherlands between 1970 and 2004. On the basis of data from the Eindhoven Cancer Registry and Statistics Netherlands, 5-year moving average standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated. An age-period-cohort (APC) Poisson regression analysis was performed to disentangle time and birth cohort effects on incidence. The incidence rate remained stable for all ages at about 3 per 100,000 person-years until 1989 but increased annually thereafter by 4% to 6 in 2004. This increase can almost completely be attributed to an increase in localised tumours. The largest increase was found for seminoma testicular cancer (TC) patients aged 35-39 and non-seminoma TC patients aged 20-24 years. Relatively more localised and tumours with lymph node metastases were detected in the later periods. APC analysis showed the best fit with an age-cohort model. An increase in incidence of TC was found for birth cohorts since 1950. The mortality rate dropped from 1.0 per 100,000 person-years in 1970 to 0.3 in 2005, with a steep annual decline of 12% in the period 1979-1986. In conclusion, the increase in incidence of TC was strongly correlated with birth cohorts since 1945. The increase in incidence is possibly caused by in utero or early life exposure to a yet unknown risk factor. There was a steep decline in mortality in the period 1979-1986. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Liver Transplantation for Classical Maple Syrup Urine Disease: Long-Term Follow-Up in 37 Patients and Comparative United Network for Organ Sharing Experience

PubMed Central

Mazariegos, George V.; Morton, D. Holmes; Sindhi, Rakesh; Soltys, Kyle; Nayyar, Navdeep; Bond, Geoffrey; Shellmer, Diana; Shneider, Benjamin; Vockley, Jerry; Strauss, Kevin A.

2012-01-01

Objective To assess clinical and neurocognitive function in children who have undergone liver transplantation for classical maple syrup urine disease (MSUD). Study design A total of 35 patients with classical MSUD (age 9.9 ± 7.9 years) underwent liver transplantation between 2004 and 2009. Six patients donated their liver to recipients without MSUD (“domino” transplant). We analyzed clinical outcomes for our cohort and 17 additional cases from the national United Network for Organ Sharing registry; 33 patients completed IQ and adaptive testing before transplantation, and 14 completed testing 1 year later. Results Patient and graft survival were 100% at 4.5 ± 2.2 years of follow-up. Liver function was normal in all patients. Branched-chain amino acid levels were corrected within hours after surgery and remained stable, with leucine tolerance increasing more than 10-fold. All domino transplant recipients were alive and well with normal branched-chain amino acid homeostasis at the time of this report. Patient and graft survival for all 54 patients with MSUD undergoing liver transplantation in the United States during this period were 98%and 96%, respectively. One-third of our patients were mentally impaired (IQ ≤ 70) before transplantation, with no statistically significant change 1 year later. Conclusion Liver transplantation is an effective long-term treatment for classical MSUD and may arrest brain damage, but will not reverse it. PMID:21839471

Preventing weight gain: a population cohort study of the nature and effectiveness of mid-age women's weight control practices.

PubMed

Williams, L; Germov, J; Young, A

2007-06-01

To examine women's weight control practices and their effectiveness in preventing weight gain. Retrospective cohort study of weight control practices and 2-year weight change among mid-age women participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH). 11,589 Australian women (aged 47-52 years). The prevalence and types of self-reported weight control practices used were assessed by a nine-item instrument. Two-year weight change was self-reported and adjusted for baseline body mass index (BMI) and other potential confounders. Seventy-four per cent of the cohort (N=8556) reported actively trying to control their weight. Dietary modification was used more frequently than exercise. Two-thirds of the weight-controlling women used a combination of practices, the two most common being 'decreased food quantity, cut down on fats/sugars and exercise' (32%, baseline BMI 25.87(0.10)), and 'decreased food quantity and cut down on fats/sugars without exercise' (15.6%, baseline BMI 27.04(0.14)). Potentially health-damaging practices (smoking, laxatives, fasting) were relatively uncommon, at 7.9%. Only one combination of practices (decreased food quantity, cut down on fats/sugars, use of a commercial weight loss programme and exercise) prevented mean weight gain (-0.03 kg), whereas the mean (s.d.) weight of the cohort increased (+1.19(4.78)) over the 2-year period. The majority of mid-age women attempting weight control used practices consistent with public health messages. Despite their efforts, the group was mostly unsuccessful in preventing weight gain. Public health authorities and health practitioners may need to make more quantitative recommendations and emphasize the importance of balancing physical activity with dietary intake to achieve successful weight control for women at this life stage.

Examining Cohort Effects in Developmental Trajectories of Substance Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Alison Reimuller; Hussong, Andrea M.; Solis, Jessica M.; Curran, Patrick J.; McGinley, James S.; Bauer, Daniel J.; Chassin, Laurie; Zucker, Robert A.

2017-01-01

The current study demonstrates the application of an analytic approach for incorporating multiple time trends in order to examine the impact of cohort effects on individual trajectories of eight drugs of abuse. Parallel analysis of two independent, longitudinal studies of high-risk youth that span ages 10 to 40 across 23 birth cohorts between 1968…

Extension of biomass estimates to pre-assessment periods using density dependent surplus production approach.

PubMed

Horbowy, Jan; Tomczak, Maciej T

2017-01-01

Biomass reconstructions to pre-assessment periods for commercially important and exploitable fish species are important tools for understanding long-term processes and fluctuation on stock and ecosystem level. For some stocks only fisheries statistics and fishery dependent data are available, for periods before surveys were conducted. The methods for the backward extension of the analytical assessment of biomass for years for which only total catch volumes are available were developed and tested in this paper. Two of the approaches developed apply the concept of the surplus production rate (SPR), which is shown to be stock density dependent if stock dynamics is governed by classical stock-production models. The other approach used a modified form of the Schaefer production model that allows for backward biomass estimation. The performance of the methods was tested on the Arctic cod and North Sea herring stocks, for which analytical biomass estimates extend back to the late 1940s. Next, the methods were applied to extend biomass estimates of the North-east Atlantic mackerel from the 1970s (analytical biomass estimates available) to the 1950s, for which only total catch volumes were available. For comparison with other methods which employs a constant SPR estimated as an average of the observed values, was also applied. The analyses showed that the performance of the methods is stock and data specific; the methods that work well for one stock may fail for the others. The constant SPR method is not recommended in those cases when the SPR is relatively high and the catch volumes in the reconstructed period are low.

Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends.

PubMed

Bernard, Aude

2017-12-01

Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.

Comparison between an Alternative and the Classic Definition of Chronic Bronchitis in COPDGene

PubMed Central

Crapo, James; Zhao, Huaqing; Jones, Paul W.; Silverman, Edwin K.; Comellas, Alejandro; Make, Barry J.; Criner, Gerard J.

2015-01-01

Rationale: Previous studies on chronic bronchitis (CB) have used varying definitions. Objectives: We sought to compare an alternative CB definition, using the St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), a commonly used assessment tool, with the classic definition and to investigate if it had independent or additive value. Methods: We analyzed data from 4,513 subjects from Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease groups 1 to 4 in the COPDGene cohort. We compared the classic definition of CB with the SGRQ definition, defined by their answers to the questions about both cough and phlegm. We compared the Classic CB+ versus CB− groups, and the SGRQ CB+ and CB− groups. We also analyzed the cohort split into four groups: Classic CB+/SGRQ CB+, Classic CB+/SGRQ CB−, Classic CB−/SGRQ CB+, Classic CB−/SGRQ CB−. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 26.1% subjects were Classic CB+, whereas 39.9% were SGRQ CB+. When the SGRQ definition was compared with the Classic CB definition, using this as the gold standard, the SGRQ CB definition had a sensitivity and specificity of 0.87 and 0.77, respectively. The SGRQ CB+ and Classic CB+ groups were strikingly similar, with more respiratory symptoms and exacerbations, worse lung function, and greater airway wall thickness. In addition, the Classic CB+/SGRQ CB+, Classic CB+/SGRQ CB−, and Classic CB−/SGRQ CB+ groups shared similar characteristics as well. Conclusions: The SGRQ CB definition identifies more subjects with chronic cough and sputum who share a similar phenotype identified by the Classic CB definition. The addition of the SGRQ CB definition to the classic one can be used to identify more patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease at risk for poor outcomes. PMID:25575351

Growth and development in children with classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia.

PubMed

Bonfig, Walter

2017-02-01

Final height outcome in classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) has been of interest for many years. With analysis of growth patterns and used glucocorticoid regimens, enhanced treatment strategies have been developed and are still under development. Most of the current reports on final height outcome are confirmative of previous results. Final height data is still reported in cohorts that were diagnosed clinically and not by newborn screening. Clinical diagnosis of CAH leads to delayed diagnosis especially of simple virilizing CAH with significantly advanced bone age resulting in early pubertal development and reduced final height. In contrast salt-wasting CAH is diagnosed at an earlier stage in most cases resulting in better final height outcome in some cohorts. Nevertheless, final height outcome in patients with CAH treated with glucocorticoids is lower than the population norm and also at the lower end of genetic potential. Achievement of regular adult height is still a challenge with conventional glucocorticoid treatment in patients with CAH, which is why new hydrocortisone formulations and new treatment options for CAH are underway.

Modalities of gene action predicted by the classical evolutionary biological theory of aging.

PubMed

Martin, George M

2007-04-01

What might now be referred to as the "classical" evolutionary biological theory of why we age has had a number of serious challenges in recent years. While the theory might therefore have to be modified under certain circumstances, in the author's opinion, it still provides the soundest theoretical basis for thinking about how we age. Nine modalities of gene action that have the potential to modulate processes of aging are reviewed, including the two most widely reviewed and accepted concepts ("antagonistic pleiotropy" and "mutation accumulation"). While several of these nine mechanisms can be regarded as derivatives of the antagonistic pleiotropic concept, they frame more specific questions for future research. Such research should pursue what appears to be the dominant factor in the determination of intraspecific variations in longevity-stochastic mechanisms, most likely based upon epigenetics. This contrasts with the dominant factor in the determination of interspecific variations in longevity-the constitutional genome, most likely based upon variations in regulatory loci.

Recent advances in detection of AGEs: Immunochemical, bioanalytical and biochemical approaches.

PubMed

Ashraf, Jalaluddin Mohd; Ahmad, Saheem; Choi, Inho; Ahmad, Nashrah; Farhan, Mohd; Tatyana, Godovikova; Shahab, Uzma

2015-12-01

Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are a cohort of heterogeneous compounds that are formed after the nonenzymatic glycation of proteins, lipids and nucleic acids. Accumulation of AGEs in the body is implicated in various pathophysiological conditions like diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and atherosclerosis. Numerous studies have reported the connecting link between AGEs and the various complications associated with diseases. Hence, detection and measurement of AGEs becomes centrally important to understand and manage the menace created by AGEs inside the body. In recent years, an increasing number of immunotechniques as well as bioanalytical techniques have been developed to efficiently measure the levels of AGEs, but most of them are still far away from being clinically consistent, as relative disparity and ambiguity masks their standardization. This article is designed to critically review the recent advances and the emerging techniques for detection of AGEs. It is an attempt to summarize the major techniques that exist currently for the detection of AGEs both qualitatively and quantitatively. This review primarily focuses on the detection and quantification of AGEs which are formed in vivo. Immunochemical approach though costly but most effective and accurate method to measure the level of AGEs. Literature review suggests that detection of autoantibody targeting AGEs is a promising way that can be utilized for detection of AGEs. Future research efforts should be dedicated to develop this method in order to push forward the clinical applications of detection of AGEs. © 2015 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

Gestational age and newborn size according to parental social mobility: an intergenerational cohort study.

PubMed

Gigante, Denise P; Horta, Bernardo L; Matijasevich, Alicia; Mola, Christian Loret de; Barros, Aluisio J D; Santos, Ina S; Barros, Fernando C; Victora, Cesar G

2015-10-01

We examined the associations between socioeconomic trajectories from birth to adulthood and gestational age and birth size in the next generation, using linked data from two population-based birth cohorts carried out in a Brazilian city. By comparing socioeconomic trajectories of mothers and fathers, we attempted to identify-specific effects of maternal and paternal socioeconomic trajectory on offspring birth weight, birth length, head circumference and gestational age at birth. 2 population-based birth cohort studies were carried out in 1982 and 2004 in Pelotas (Brazil); 156 mothers and 110 fathers from the earlier cohort had children in 2004. Gestational age and birth length, weight and head circumference were measured. Analyses were carried out separately for mothers and fathers. Mediation analyses assessed the role of birth weight and adult body mass index (BMI). Among mothers, but not for fathers, childhood poverty was strongly associated with smaller size in the next generation (about 400 g in weight and 1.5 cm in height) and shorter gestations (about 2 weeks). Adult poverty did not play a role. For mothers, the associations with gestational age, birth length and weight-but not with head circumference-persisted after adjusting for maternal birth weight and for the height and weight of the grandmother. Maternal birth weight did not mediate the observed associations, but high maternal BMI in adulthood was partly responsible for the association with gestational age. Strong effects of early poverty on gestational age and birth size in the next generation were observed among mothers, but not among fathers. These findings suggest a specific maternal effect of socioeconomic trajectory, and in particular of early poverty on offspring size and duration of pregnancy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Unravelling the effects of age, period and cohort on metabolic syndrome components in a Taiwanese population using partial least squares regression

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background We investigate whether the changing environment caused by rapid economic growth yielded differential effects for successive Taiwanese generations on 8 components of metabolic syndrome (MetS): body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), Low-density lipoproteins (LDL) and uric acid (UA). Methods To assess the impact of age, birth year and year of examination on MetS components, we used partial least squares regression to analyze data collected by Mei-Jaw clinics in Taiwan in years 1996 and 2006. Confounders, such as the number of years in formal education, alcohol intake, smoking history status, and betel-nut chewing were adjusted for. Results As the age of individuals increased, the values of components generally increased except for UA. Men born after 1970 had lower FPG, lower BMI, lower DBP, lower TG, Lower LDL and greater HDL; women born after 1970 had lower BMI, lower DBP, lower TG, Lower LDL and greater HDL and UA. There is a similar pattern between the trend in levels of metabolic syndrome components against birth year of birth and economic growth in Taiwan. Conclusions We found cohort effects in some MetS components, suggesting associations between the changing environment and health outcomes in later life. This ecological association is worthy of further investigation. PMID:21619595

34 CFR 694.2 - Which students must a Partnership, or a State that chooses to use the cohort approach in its...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... chooses to use the cohort approach in its project, serve under the program's early intervention component... cohort approach in its project, serve under the program's early intervention component? A Partnership, or a State that chooses to use a cohort approach in its GEAR UP early intervention component, must...

Host age and Plasmodium falciparum multiclonality are associated with gametocyte prevalence: a 1-year prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Adomako-Ankomah, Yaw; Chenoweth, Matthew S; Tocker, Aaron M; Doumbia, Saibou; Konate, Drissa; Doumbouya, Mory; Keita, Abdoul S; Anderson, Jennifer M; Fairhurst, Rick M; Diakite, Mahamadou; Miura, Kazutoyo; Long, Carole A

2017-11-21

Since Plasmodium falciparum transmission relies exclusively on sexual-stage parasites, several malaria control strategies aim to disrupt this step of the life cycle. Thus, a better understanding of which individuals constitute the primary gametocyte reservoir within an endemic population, and the temporal dynamics of gametocyte carriage, especially in seasonal transmission settings, will not only support the effective implementation of current transmission control programmes, but also inform the design of more targeted strategies. A 1-year prospective cohort study was initiated in June 2013 with the goal of assessing the longitudinal dynamics of P. falciparum gametocyte carriage in a village in Mali with intense seasonal malaria transmission. A cohort of 500 individuals aged 1-65 years was recruited for this study. Gametocyte prevalence was measured monthly using Pfs25-specific RT-PCR, and analysed for the effects of host age and gender, seasonality, and multiclonality of P. falciparum infection over 1 year. Most P. falciparum infections (51-89%) in this population were accompanied by gametocytaemia throughout the 1-year period. Gametocyte prevalence among P. falciparum-positive individuals (proportion of gametocyte positive infections) was associated with age (p = 0.003) but not with seasonality (wet vs. dry) or gender. The proportion of gametocyte positive infections were similarly high in children aged 1-17 years (74-82% on median among 5 age groups), while older individuals had relatively lower proportion, and those aged > 35 years (median of 43%) had significantly lower than those aged 1-17 years (p < 0.05). Plasmodium falciparum-positive individuals with gametocytaemia were found to have significantly higher P. falciparum multiclonality than those without gametocytaemia (p < 0.033 in two different analyses). Taken together, these results suggest that a substantial proportion of Pf-positive individuals carries gametocytes throughout the year, and

Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses.

PubMed

Keogh, Ruth H; Mangtani, Punam; Rodrigues, Laura; Nguipdop Djomo, Patrick

2016-01-05

Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

34 CFR 694.2 - Which students must a Partnership, or a State that chooses to use the cohort approach in its...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... chooses to use the cohort approach in its project, serve under the program's early intervention component... chooses to use the cohort approach in its project, serve under the program's early intervention component? A Partnership, or a State that chooses to use a cohort approach in its GEAR UP early intervention...

34 CFR 694.2 - Which students must a Partnership, or a State that chooses to use the cohort approach in its...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... chooses to use the cohort approach in its project, serve under the program's early intervention component... chooses to use the cohort approach in its project, serve under the program's early intervention component? A Partnership, or a State that chooses to use a cohort approach in its GEAR UP early intervention...

34 CFR 694.2 - Which students must a Partnership, or a State that chooses to use the cohort approach in its...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... chooses to use the cohort approach in its project, serve under the program's early intervention component... chooses to use the cohort approach in its project, serve under the program's early intervention component? A Partnership, or a State that chooses to use a cohort approach in its GEAR UP early intervention...

34 CFR 694.2 - Which students must a Partnership, or a State that chooses to use the cohort approach in its...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... chooses to use the cohort approach in its project, serve under the program's early intervention component... chooses to use the cohort approach in its project, serve under the program's early intervention component? A Partnership, or a State that chooses to use a cohort approach in its GEAR UP early intervention...

Recreation specialization and the analysis of angler differences according to age cohort

Treesearch

David K. Loomis; Rodney B. Warnick

1992-01-01

We segmented a sample of sport fishermen into six unique age cohorts for the purposes of determining if significant differences existed on four recreation related dimensions. No significant differences for activity or non activity-specific elements of the experience were found. Some differences were found for mediated interaction and resource dependency, and clear...

[HIV infection in different age groups: Potential implications for prevention. CoRIS Cohort, Spain, 2004-2008].

PubMed

Caro-Murillo, Ana María; Gil Luciano, Ana; Navarro Rubio, Gemma; Leal Noval, Manuel; Blanco Ramos, José Ramón

2010-04-24

To describe the characteristics of HIV infected adults according to their age at recruitment in CoRIS. Analysis of an open, prospective, multicentric cohort of HIV+ adults without previous antiretroviral treatment, attended for the first time from January/2004 to November/2008, in 28 Spanish hospitals (CoRIS). We analyzed their characteristics at recruitment and the distribution of AIDS defining illnesses (ADI) prior to cohort entry and during follow up, according to their age at recruitment. Delayed diagnosis was defined as a patient with AIDS diagnosis and/or CD4+ cell count lower than 200 cells/microl within the first year after HIV diagnosis. Of 4,418 patients included, 30.4% were < or =30 years old, 60.6% between 31 and 50 and 8.9% older than 50 at cohort entry; 31.6% of patients were immigrants (44.1% in the youngest group), 79.6% had been sexually transmitted and 15.2% had an AIDS diagnosis at cohort entry (28.1% between those older than 50). In 34.6% of cases there was a late diagnosis (53.3% in the oldest group). The ADIs varied according to age; tuberculosis was more frequent in the youngest. Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, HIV related encephalopathy, recurrent pneumonia and primary lymphoma of brain were more frequent among the oldest. The immunological characteristics and the distribution of ADIs varied according to age. The proportion of late diagnosis was unacceptably high, suggesting the need of specific interventions designed to promote earlier diagnosis. 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Marriage and divorce in twentieth century American cohorts.

PubMed

Schoen, R; Urton, W; Woodrow, K; Baj, J

1985-02-01

Marital status life tables have provided a basis for describing the marriage, divorce, and mortality experience of U.S. cohorts born 1888-1950. In brief, marriage occurred earlier and became more universal from the earliest cohorts to those of the late 1930s. More recent cohorts show declines in the proportion ever marrying and increases in the mean age at marriage. Period data for 1980 and cumulative cohort data by age suggest the likelihood of a continuing retreat from first marriage. Divorce has been rising steadily, with the latest cohorts indicating that 46 percent of male marriages and 42 percent of female marriages will end in divorce. Period data for males in 1980 raise the possibility that levels of divorce may have reached a peak, but cumulative cohort data by age show no such pattern. The present results are consistent with the view that a fundamental change in the traditional concept of marriage is underway. Traditional marriage involved the husband providing the wife with economic support and protection in return for her companionship and maternal services. Strong social pressures urged men and women to marry, and made the coveted services married persons provided each other difficult to obtain elsewhere. Recent economic changes have undermined the social and economic forces that maintained the institution of marriage. The U.S. economy has grown to include a large service sector in its labor force, and that growth has produced a dramatic increase in female labor force opportunities (Oppenheimer, 1970). The resultant large scale participation of women in economic activity blurs the traditional division of labor by sex, and goes to the very heart of the traditional marriage "bargain." At the same time, economic changes have weakened family ties by encouraging lower fertility, stressing achieved as opposed to ascribed characteristics, and fostering geographical mobility (Goode, 1970). The "marital union" of the past may be giving way to the "marital

Trends in cause specific mortality across occupations in Japanese men of working age during period of economic stagnation, 1980-2005: retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wada, Koji; Kondo, Naoki; Gilmour, Stuart; Ichida, Yukinobu; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Satoh, Toshihiko; Shibuya, Kenji

2012-03-06

To assess the temporal trends in occupation specific all causes and cause specific mortality in Japan between 1980 and 2005. Longitudinal analysis of individual death certificates by last occupation before death. Data on population by age and occupation were derived from the population census. Government records, Japan. Men aged 30-59. Age standardised mortality rate for all causes, all cancers, cerebrovascular disease, ischaemic heart disease, unintentional injuries, and suicide. Age standardised mortality rates for all causes and for the four leading causes of death (cancers, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and unintentional injuries) steadily decreased from 1980 to 2005 among all occupations except for management and professional workers, for whom rates began to rise in the late 1990s (P<0.001). During the study period, the mortality rate was lowest in other occupations such as production/labour, clerical, and sales workers, although overall variability of the age standardised mortality rate across occupations widened. The rate for suicide rapidly increased since the late 1990s, with the greatest increase being among management and professional workers. Occupational patterns in cause specific mortality changed dramatically in Japan during the period of its economic stagnation and resulted in the reversal of occupational patterns in mortality that have been well established in western countries. A significant negative effect on the health of management and professional workers rather than clerks and blue collar workers could be because of increased job demands and more stressful work environments and could have eliminated or even reversed the health inequality across occupations that had existed previously.

Age-Specific Trends in Incidence of Noncardia Gastric Cancer in US Adults

PubMed Central

Anderson, William F.; Camargo, M. Constanza; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Correa, Pelayo; Rosenberg, Philip S.; Rabkin, Charles S.

2011-01-01

Context For the last 50 years, overall age-standardized incidence rates for noncardia gastric cancer have steadily declined in most populations. However, overall rates are summary measures that may obscure important age-specific trends. Objective To examine effects of age at diagnosis on noncardia gastric cancer incidence trends in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants Descriptive study with age-period-cohort analysis of cancer registration data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, which covers approximately 26% of the US population. From 1977 through 2006, there were 83 225 adults with incident primary gastric cancer, including 39 003 noncardia cases. Main Outcome Measures Overall and age-specific incidence rates, adjusted for period and cohort effects using age-period-cohort models. Results were stratified by race, sex, and socioeconomic status. Results Overall age-standardized annual incidence per 100 000 population declined during the study period from 5.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7-6.1) to 4.0 (95% CI, 3.9-4.1) in whites, from 13.7 (95% CI, 12.5-14.9) to 9.5 (95% CI, 9.1-10.0) in blacks, and from 17.8 (95% CI, 16.1-19.4) to 11.7 (95% CI, 11.2-12.1) in other races. Age-specific trends among whites varied significantly between older and younger age groups (P < .001 for interaction by age): incidence per 100 000 declined significantly from 19.8 (95% CI, 19.0-20.6) to 12.8 (95% CI, 12.5-13.1) for ages 60 to 84 years and from 2.6 (95% CI, 2.4-2.8) to 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.1) for ages 40 to 59 years but increased significantly from 0.27 (95% CI, 0.19-0.35) to 0.45 (95% CI, 0.39-0.50) for ages 25 to 39 years. Conversely, rates for all age groups declined or were stable among blacks and other races. Age-period-cohort analysis confirmed a significant increase in whites among younger cohorts born since 1952 (P < .001). Conclusions From 1977 through 2006, the incidence rate for noncardia gastric

Extension of biomass estimates to pre-assessment periods using density dependent surplus production approach

PubMed Central

Horbowy, Jan

2017-01-01

Biomass reconstructions to pre-assessment periods for commercially important and exploitable fish species are important tools for understanding long-term processes and fluctuation on stock and ecosystem level. For some stocks only fisheries statistics and fishery dependent data are available, for periods before surveys were conducted. The methods for the backward extension of the analytical assessment of biomass for years for which only total catch volumes are available were developed and tested in this paper. Two of the approaches developed apply the concept of the surplus production rate (SPR), which is shown to be stock density dependent if stock dynamics is governed by classical stock-production models. The other approach used a modified form of the Schaefer production model that allows for backward biomass estimation. The performance of the methods was tested on the Arctic cod and North Sea herring stocks, for which analytical biomass estimates extend back to the late 1940s. Next, the methods were applied to extend biomass estimates of the North-east Atlantic mackerel from the 1970s (analytical biomass estimates available) to the 1950s, for which only total catch volumes were available. For comparison with other methods which employs a constant SPR estimated as an average of the observed values, was also applied. The analyses showed that the performance of the methods is stock and data specific; the methods that work well for one stock may fail for the others. The constant SPR method is not recommended in those cases when the SPR is relatively high and the catch volumes in the reconstructed period are low. PMID:29131850

From classic motor imagery to complex movement intention decoding: The noninvasive Graz-BCI approach.

PubMed

Müller-Putz, G R; Schwarz, A; Pereira, J; Ofner, P

2016-01-01

In this chapter, we give an overview of the Graz-BCI research, from the classic motor imagery detection to complex movement intentions decoding. We start by describing the classic motor imagery approach, its application in tetraplegic end users, and the significant improvements achieved using coadaptive brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). These strategies have the drawback of not mirroring the way one plans a movement. To achieve a more natural control-and to reduce the training time-the movements decoded by the BCI need to be closely related to the user's intention. Within this natural control, we focus on the kinematic level, where movement direction and hand position or velocity can be decoded from noninvasive recordings. First, we review movement execution decoding studies, where we describe the decoding algorithms, their performance, and associated features. Second, we describe the major findings in movement imagination decoding, where we emphasize the importance of estimating the sources of the discriminative features. Third, we introduce movement target decoding, which could allow the determination of the target without knowing the exact movement-by-movement details. Aside from the kinematic level, we also address the goal level, which contains relevant information on the upcoming action. Focusing on hand-object interaction and action context dependency, we discuss the possible impact of some recent neurophysiological findings in the future of BCI control. Ideally, the goal and the kinematic decoding would allow an appropriate matching of the BCI to the end users' needs, overcoming the limitations of the classic motor imagery approach. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Teaching Animal Physiology: a 12-year experience transitioning from a classical to interactive approach with continual assessment and computer alternatives.

PubMed

Kaisarevic, Sonja N; Andric, Silvana A; Kostic, Tatjana S

2017-09-01

In response to the Bologna Declaration and contemporary trends in Animal Physiology education, the Animal Physiology course at the Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Serbia, has evolved over a 12-yr period (2001-2012): from a classical two-semester course toward a one-semester course utilizing computer simulations of animal experiments, continual assessment, lectures, and an optional oral exam. This paper presents an overview of student achievement, the impact of reforms on learning outcomes, and lessons that we as educators learned during this process. The reforms had a positive impact on the percentage of students who completed the course within the same academic year. In addition, the percentage of students who completed the practical exam increased from 54% to >95% following the transition to a Bologna-based approach. However, average final grades declined from 8.0 to 6.8 over the same period. Students also appear reluctant to take the optional oral exam, and 82-91% of students were satisfied with the lower final grade obtained from only assessments and tests administered during the semester. In our endeavor to achieve learning outcomes set during the pre-Bologna period, while adopting contemporary teaching approaches, we sought to increase students' motivation to strive toward better performance, while ensuring that the increased quantity of students who complete the course is coupled with increased quality of education and a more in-depth understanding of animal physiology. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Outcome at two years of age in a Swiss national cohort of extremely preterm infants born between 2000 and 2008.

PubMed

Schlapbach, Luregn J; Adams, Mark; Proietti, Elena; Aebischer, Maude; Grunt, Sebastian; Borradori-Tolsa, Cristina; Bickle-Graz, Myriam; Bucher, Hans Ulrich; Latal, Beatrice; Natalucci, Giancarlo

2012-12-28

While survival rates of extremely preterm infants have improved over the last decades, the incidence of neurodevelopmental disability (ND) in survivors remains high. Representative current data on the severity of disability and of risk factors associated with poor outcome in this growing population are necessary for clinical guidance and parent counselling. Prospective longitudinal multicentre cohort study of preterm infants born in Switzerland between 24(0/7) and 27(6/7) weeks gestational age during 2000-2008. Mortality, adverse outcome (death or severe ND) at two years, and predictors for poor outcome were analysed using multilevel multivariate logistic regression. Neurodevelopment was assessed using Bayley Scales of Infant Development II. Cerebral palsy was graded after the Gross Motor Function Classification System. Of 1266 live born infants, 422 (33%) died. Follow-up information was available for 684 (81%) survivors: 440 (64%) showed favourable outcome, 166 (24%) moderate ND, and 78 (11%) severe ND. At birth, lower gestational age, intrauterine growth restriction and absence of antenatal corticosteroids were associated with mortality and adverse outcome (p < 0.001). At 36(0/7) weeks postmenstrual age, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, major brain injury and retinopathy of prematurity were the main predictors for adverse outcome (p < 0.05). Survival without moderate or severe ND increased from 27% to 39% during the observation period (p = 0.02). In this recent Swiss national cohort study of extremely preterm infants, neonatal mortality was determined by gestational age, birth weight, and antenatal corticosteroids while neurodevelopmental outcome was determined by the major neonatal morbidities. We observed an increase of survival without moderate or severe disability.

Variations over time in the effects of age and sex on hospitalization rates before and after admission to a nursing home: A German cohort study.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Falk; Allers, Katharina

2017-08-01

We examined hospitalization rates for nursing home residents before and after their entry to the home, stratified by sex and age. A cohort study was conducted using data from a large health insurance fund on 127,227 residents aged 65 years and over newly admitted to a nursing home between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014. We assessed hospitalization rates and proportions being hospitalized in 6-month intervals one year before nursing home placement and up to 5 years thereafter. Multiple Poisson regression models were fitted to calculate relative risks (RR). Mean age was 84.0 years and 74.6% of the cohort were females. Hospitalization rates were 194.4 per 100 person-years (PY) in the 12 months before entry to the nursing home and 120.0 per 100 PY thereafter. Rates were highest immediately before entry in both sexes. The influence of age was most pronounced in the 12-7 months before entry (RR: 2.37 for 65-74 vs. 95+ years) and declined thereafter (1.29-1.38 up to month 24 after entry). In contrast, the influence of sex was greater after entry (RR: 1.13 for males vs. females in the 12-7 months before and 1.23-1.31 up to month 24 after entry). Hospitalization rates of nursing home residents are much higher in Germany than in other Western countries. We have provided some insight into the influence of age and sex on hospitalization rates, which varied over the period (time before and after entry to the nursing home) analyzed. We urgently recommend that future studies on the hospitalization of residents stratify their analyses by sex, age and period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fertility in adult women with classic galactosemia and primary ovarian insufficiency.

PubMed

van Erven, Britt; Berry, Gerard T; Cassiman, David; Connolly, Geraldine; Forga, Maria; Gautschi, Matthias; Gubbels, Cynthia S; Hollak, Carla E M; Janssen, Mirian C; Knerr, Ina; Labrune, Philippe; Langendonk, Janneke G; Õunap, Katrin; Thijs, Abel; Vos, Rein; Wortmann, Saskia B; Rubio-Gozalbo, M Estela

2017-07-01

To study pregnancy chance in adult women with classic galactosemia and primary ovarian insufficiency. Despite dietary treatment, >90% of women with classic galactosemia develop primary ovarian insufficiency, resulting in impaired fertility. For many years, chance of spontaneous conception has not been considered, leading to counseling for infertility. But an increasing number of reports on pregnancies in this group questions whether current counseling approaches are correct. Multicenter retrospective observational study. Metabolic centers. Adult women (aged >18 y) with confirmed classic galactosemia and primary ovarian insufficiency were included. Participants and medical records were consulted to obtain study data in a standardized manner with the use of a questionnaire. Conception opportunities, time to pregnancy, pregnancy outcome, hormone replacement therapy use, fertility counseling, and the participants' vision of fertility were evaluated. Potential predictive factors for increased pregnancy chance were explored. Eighty-five women with classic galactosemia and primary ovarian insufficiency participated. Twenty-one women actively attempted to conceive or did not take adequate contraceptive precautions. Of these 21 women, nine became pregnant spontaneously (42.9%). This was higher than reported in primary ovarian insufficiency due to other causes (5%-10%). After a period of 12 months, a cumulative proportion of 27.8% of couples had conceived, which increased to 48.4% after 24 months and 61.3% after 27 months. Predictive factors could not be identified. A considerable miscarriage rate of 30% was observed (6 of 20 pregnancies). Although a substantial proportion of women expressed a child-wish (n = 28/53; 52.8%), the vast majority of participants (n = 43/57; 75.4%) considered conceiving to be highly unlikely, owing to negative counseling in the past. The pregnancy rate in women with classic galactosemia and primary ovarian insufficiency was higher than for

Maternal age and offspring developmental vulnerability at age five: A population-based cohort study of Australian children

PubMed Central

Banks, Emily; Lynch, John; Brownell, Marni; Eades, Sandra; Jorm, Louisa

2018-01-01

Background In recent decades, there has been a shift to later childbearing in high-income countries. There is limited large-scale evidence of the relationship between maternal age and child outcomes beyond the perinatal period. The objective of this study is to quantify a child’s risk of developmental vulnerability at age five, according to their mother’s age at childbirth. Methods and findings Linkage of population-level perinatal, hospital, and birth registration datasets to data from the Australian Early Development Census (AEDC) and school enrolments in Australia’s most populous state, New South Wales (NSW), enabled us to follow a cohort of 99,530 children from birth to their first year of school in 2009 or 2012. The study outcome was teacher-reported child development on five domains measured by the AEDC, including physical health and well-being, emotional maturity, social competence, language and cognitive skills, and communication skills and general knowledge. Developmental vulnerability was defined as domain scores below the 2009 AEDC 10th percentile cut point. The mean maternal age at childbirth was 29.6 years (standard deviation [SD], 5.7), with 4,382 children (4.4%) born to mothers aged <20 years and 20,026 children (20.1%) born to mothers aged ≥35 years. The proportion vulnerable on ≥1 domains was 21% overall and followed a reverse J-shaped distribution according to maternal age: it was highest in children born to mothers aged ≤15 years, at 40% (95% CI, 32–49), and was lowest in children born to mothers aged between 30 years and ≤35 years, at 17%–18%. For maternal ages 36 years to ≥45 years, the proportion vulnerable on ≥1 domains increased to 17%–24%. Adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics significantly attenuated vulnerability risk in children born to younger mothers, while adjustment for potentially modifiable factors, such as antenatal visits, had little additional impact across all ages. Although the multi

Using age-specific mortality of HIV infected persons to predict anti-retroviral treatment need: a comparative analysis of data from five African population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Zaba, Basia; Kasamba, Ivan; Floyd, Sian; Isingo, Raphael; Herbst, Kobus; Bärnighausen, Till; Gregson, Simon; Nyamukapa, Constance; Kayuni, Ndoliwe; Todd, Jim; Marston, Milly; Wringe, Alison

2012-08-01

To present a simple method for estimating population-level anti-retroviral therapy (ART) need that does not rely on knowledge of past HIV incidence. A new approach to estimating ART need is developed based on calculating age-specific proportions of HIV-infected adults expected to die within a fixed number of years in the absence of treatment. Mortality data for HIV-infected adults in the pre-treatment era from five African HIV cohort studies were combined to construct a life table, starting at age 15, smoothed with a Weibull model. Assuming that ART should be made available to anyone expected to die within 3 years, conditional 3-year survival probabilities were computed to represent proportions needing ART. The build-up of ART need in a successful programme continuously recruiting infected adults into treatment as they age to within 3 years of expected death was represented by annually extending the conditional survival range. The Weibull model: survival probability in the infected state from age 15 = exp(-0.0073 × (age - 15)(1.69)) fitted the pooled age-specific mortality data very closely. Initial treatment need for infected persons increased rapidly with age, from 15% at age 20-24 to 32% at age 40-44 and 42% at age 60-64. Overall need in the treatment of naïve population was 24%, doubling within 5 years in a programme continually recruiting patients entering the high-risk period for dying. A reasonable projection of treatment need in an ART naive population can be made based on the age and gender profile of HIV-infected people. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Cohort Profile Update: The TRacking Adolescents’ Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS)

PubMed Central

Oldehinkel, Albertine J; Rosmalen, Judith GM; Buitelaar, Jan K; Hoek, Hans W; Ormel, Johan; Raven, Dennis; Reijneveld, Sijmen A; Veenstra, René; Verhulst, Frank C; Vollebergh, Wilma AM; Hartman, Catharina A

2015-01-01

TRAILS consists of a population cohort (N = 2230) and a clinical cohort (N = 543), both of which were followed from about age 11 years onwards. To date, the population cohort has been assessed five times over a period of 11 years, with retention rates ranging between 80% and 96%. The clinical cohort has been assessed four times over a period of 8 years, with retention rates ranging between 77% and 85%. Since the IJE published a cohort profile on the TRAILS in 2008, the participants have matured from adolescents into young adults. The focus shifted from parents and school to entry into the labour market and family formation, including offspring. Furthermore, psychiatric diagnostic interviews were administered, the database was linked to a Psychiatric Case Registry, and the availability of genome-wide SNP variations opened the door to genome-wide association studies regarding a wide range of (endo)phenotypes. With some delay, TRAILS data are available to researchers outside the TRAILS consortium without costs; access can be obtained by submitting a publication proposal (see www.trails.nl). PMID:25431468

Comprehensive Analysis of Large Sets of Age-Related Physiological Indicators Reveals Rapid Aging around the Age of 55 Years.

PubMed

Lixie, Erin; Edgeworth, Jameson; Shamir, Lior

2015-01-01

While many studies show a correlation between chronological age and physiological indicators, the nature of this correlation is not fully understood. To perform a comprehensive analysis of the correlation between chronological age and age-related physiological indicators. Physiological aging scores were deduced using principal component analysis from a large dataset of 1,227 variables measured in a cohort of 4,796 human subjects, and the correlation between the physiological aging scores and chronological age was assessed. Physiological age does not progress linearly or exponentially with chronological age: a more rapid physiological change is observed around the age of 55 years, followed by a mild decline until around the age of 70 years. These findings provide evidence that the progression of physiological age is not linear with that of chronological age, and that periods of mild change in physiological age are separated by periods of more rapid aging. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Fluid intelligence, traits of personality and personality disorders in a cohort of adult KS patients with the classic 47, XXY karyotype.

PubMed

Liberato, D; Granato, S; Grimaldi, D; Rossi, F M; Tahani, N; Gianfrilli, D; Anzuini, A; Lenzi, A; Cavaggioni, G; Radicioni, A F

2017-11-01

Klinefelter's syndrome (KS) is associated with specific neurobehavioral features and personality traits. The aim of our study was to investigate fluid intelligence, personality traits and personality disorders (PD) and possible correlations with testosterone in a cohort of adult KS patients. We analyzed 58 adult KS patients with the classic 47, XXY karyotype. The Structured Clinical Interview for axis II disorders was used to assess DSM IV personality disorders. Personality traits were assessed using MMPI-2. Fluid intelligence was tested by using Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices (SPM) Test. Testosterone blood concentration was measured by CMIA. PD prevalence was 31%. Four altered MMPI scales (Social Responsibility, Dominance, Ego Strength and Repression) were found in more than 40% of patients. Overcontrolled hostility and MacAndrew Alcoholism Scale-Revised scales were altered in the PD- group only. Biz-Odd Thinking and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder scale were associated with the presence of personality disorder. The raw SPM score was 44 ± 10.8 without any significant correlation with testosterone. No significant difference in mean age, SPM raw score and MMPI score was observed between eugonadal, hypogonadal and treated patients. Most KS patients had average fluid intelligence. PD prevalence was higher than in the general population. Testosterone was not correlated with fluid intelligence, personality traits or PD, but a reduction in marital distress was observed in treated patients. This could suggest that testosterone therapy can improve physical symptoms and this effect could also improve relationship abilities and wellness awareness.

Structural social relations and cognitive ageing trajectories: evidence from the Whitehall II cohort study.

PubMed

Elovainio, Marko; Sommerlad, Andrew; Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Virtanen, Marianna; Kivimäki, Mika; Singh-Manoux, Archana

2017-11-07

Social relations are important for health, particularly at older ages. We examined the salience of frequency of social contacts and marital status for cognitive ageing trajectories over 21 years, from midlife to early old age. Data are from the Whitehall II cohort study, including 4290 men and 1776 women aged 35-55 years at baseline (1985-88). Frequency of social contacts and marital status were measured in 1985-88 and 1989-90. Assessment of cognitive function on five occasions (1991-94, 1997-99, 2003-04, 2007-09 and 2012-13) included the following tests: short-term memory, inductive reasoning, verbal fluency (phonemic and semantic) and a combined global score. Cognitive trajectories over the study period were analysed using longitudinal latent growth class analyses, and the associations of these latent classes (trajectory memberships) with social relations were analysed using multinominal logistic regression. More frequent social contacts [relative risk (RRR) 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.94 - 0.98] and being married (RRR 0.70, 95% CI 0.58 - 0.84) were associated with lower probability of being on a low rather than high cognitive performance trajectory over the subsequent 21 years. These associations persisted after adjustment for covariates. Of the sub-tests, social relations variables had the strongest association with phonemic fluency (RRR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94 - 0.97 for frequent contact; RRR 0.59, 95% CI 0.48 - 0.71 for being married). More frequent social contacts and having a spouse were associated with more favourable cognitive ageing trajectories. Further studies are needed to examine whether interventions designed to improve social connections affect cognitive ageing. © The Author 2017; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Educational Differences in U.S. Adult Mortality: A Cohort Perspective*

PubMed Central

Masters, Ryan K.; Hummer, Robert A.; Powers, Daniel A.

2014-01-01

We use hierarchical cross-classified random-effects models to simultaneously measure age, period, and cohort patterns of mortality risk between 1986 and 2006 for non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black men and women with less than a high school education, a high school education, and more than a high school education. We examine all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease, lung cancer, and unpreventable cancers. Findings reveal that temporal reductions in black and white men’s and women’s mortality rates were driven entirely by cohort changes in mortality. Findings also demonstrate that disparate cohort effects between education groups widened the education gap in all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease and lung cancer across this time period. Educational disparities in mortality risk from unpreventable cancers, however, did not change. This research uncovers widening educational differences in adult mortality and demonstrates that a cohort perspective provides valuable insights for understanding recent temporal changes in U.S. mortality risk. PMID:25346542

Trends in Female Breast Cancer by Age Group in the Chiang Mai Population

PubMed Central

Sripan, Patumrat; Sriplung, Hutcha; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Virani, Shama; Bilheem, Surichai; Chaisaengkhaum, Udomlak; Maneesai, Puttachart; Waisri, Narate; Hanpragopsuk, Chirapong; Tansiri, Panrada; Khamsan, Varunee; Poungsombat, Malisa; Mawoot, Aumnart; Chitapanarux, Imjai

2017-01-01

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine incidence trends of female breast cancer according to age groups and to predict future change in Chiang Mai women through 2028. Method: Data were collected from all hospitals in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, from 1989 through 2013, and used to investigate effects of age, year of diagnosis (period) and year of birth (cohort) on female breast cancer incidences using an age-period-cohort model. This model features geometric cut trends to predict change by young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59) and elderly (≥60) age groups. Result: Of 5, 417 female breast cancer patients with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range: 43 to 59 years), 15%, 61% and 24% were young, middle-aged and elderly, respectively. Seventy nine percent of cancer cases in this study were detected at advanced stage. The trend in stage classification showed an increase in percentage of early stage and a decrease in metastatic cancers. Linear trends for cohort and period were not found in young females but were observed in middle-aged and elderly groups. Age-standardized rates (ASR) can be expected to remain stable around 6.8 per 100,000 women-years in young females. In the other age groups, the ASR trends were calculated to increase and reach peaks in 2024 of 120.2 and 138.2 per 100,000 women-years, respectively. Conclusion: Cohort effects or generation-specific effects, such as life style factors and the year of diagnosis (period) might have impacted on increased incidence in women aged over 40 years but not those under 40 years. A budget should be provided for treatment facilities and strategies to detect early stage cancers. The cost effectiveness of screening measures i.e. mammographic screening may need to be reconsidered for women age over 40 years. PMID:28612595

Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men.

PubMed

Jee, Yon Ho; Shin, Aesun; Lee, Jong-Keun; Oh, Chang-Mo

2016-12-05

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): -3.1 (95% CI, -4.6 to -1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC -2.4 (95% CI -2.7 to -2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC -2.5 (95% CI -4.1 to -0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC -5.2 (95% CI -5.7 to -4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): -3.3 (95% CI -4.7 to -1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates.

THE SECRET LIVES OF CEPHEIDS: EVOLUTION, MASS-LOSS, AND ULTRAVIOLET EMISSION OF THE LONG-PERIOD CLASSICAL CEPHEID

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neilson, Hilding R.; Engle, Scott G.; Guinan, Edward F.

The classical Cepheid l Carinae is an essential calibrator of the Cepheid Leavitt Law as a rare long-period Galactic Cepheid. Understanding the properties of this star will also constrain the physics and evolution of massive ( M ≥ 8 M {sub ⊙}) Cepheids. The challenge, however, is precisely measuring the star's pulsation period and its rate of period change. The former is important for calibrating the Leavitt Law and the latter for stellar evolution modeling. In this work, we combine previous time-series observations spanning more than a century with new observations to remeasure the pulsation period and compute the ratemore » of period change. We compare our new rate of period change with stellar evolution models to measure the properties of l Car, but find models and observations are, at best, marginally consistent. The results imply that l Car does not have significantly enhanced mass-loss rates like that measured for δ Cephei. We find that the mass of l Car is about 8–10 M {sub ⊙}. We present Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph observations that also differ from measurements for δ Cep and β Dor. These measurements further add to the challenge of understanding the physics of Cepheids, but do hint at the possible relation between enhanced mass-loss and ultraviolet emission, perhaps both due to the strength of shocks propagating in the atmospheres of Cepheids.« less

Effects of age, gender, and stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory.

PubMed

Kunimi, Mitsunobu

2016-01-01

This study focused on age-related changes in visual short-term memory using visual stimuli that did not allow verbal encoding. Experiment 1 examined the effects of age and the length of the stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory function. Experiment 2 examined the effects of age, gender, and the length of the stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory function. The worst memory performance and the largest performance difference between the age groups were observed in the shortest stimulus presentation period conditions. The performance difference between the age groups became smaller as the stimulus presentation period became longer; however, it did not completely disappear. Although gender did not have a significant effect on d' regardless of the presentation period in the young group, a significant gender-based difference was observed for stimulus presentation periods of 500 ms and 1,000 ms in the older group. This study indicates that the decline in visual short-term memory observed in the older group is due to the interaction of several factors.

Classical Molecular Dynamics with Mobile Protons.

PubMed

Lazaridis, Themis; Hummer, Gerhard

2017-11-27

An important limitation of standard classical molecular dynamics simulations is the inability to make or break chemical bonds. This restricts severely our ability to study processes that involve even the simplest of chemical reactions, the transfer of a proton. Existing approaches for allowing proton transfer in the context of classical mechanics are rather cumbersome and have not achieved widespread use and routine status. Here we reconsider the combination of molecular dynamics with periodic stochastic proton hops. To ensure computational efficiency, we propose a non-Boltzmann acceptance criterion that is heuristically adjusted to maintain the correct or desirable thermodynamic equilibria between different protonation states and proton transfer rates. Parameters are proposed for hydronium, Asp, Glu, and His. The algorithm is implemented in the program CHARMM and tested on proton diffusion in bulk water and carbon nanotubes and on proton conductance in the gramicidin A channel. Using hopping parameters determined from proton diffusion in bulk water, the model reproduces the enhanced proton diffusivity in carbon nanotubes and gives a reasonable estimate of the proton conductance in gramicidin A.

Dental and Chronological Ages as Determinants of Peak Growth Period and Its Relationship with Dental Calcification Stages

PubMed Central

Litsas, George; Lucchese, Alessandra

2016-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the relationship between dental, chronological, and cervical vertebral maturation growth in the peak growth period, as well as to study the association between the dental calcification phases and the skeletal maturity stages during the same growth period. Methods: Subjects were selected from orthodontic pre-treatment cohorts consisting of 420 subjects where 255 were identified and enrolled into the study, comprising 145 girls and 110 boys. The lateral cephalometric and panoramic radiographs were examined from the archives of the Department of Orthodontics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece. Dental age was assessed according to the method of Demirjian, and skeletal maturation according to the Cervical Vertebral Maturation Method. Statistical elaboration included Spearman Brown formula, descriptive statistics, Pearson’s correlation coefficient and regression analysis, paired samples t-test, and Spearman’s rho correlation coefficient. Results: Chronological and dental age showed a high correlation for both gender(r =0.741 for boys, r = 0.770 for girls, p<0.001). The strongest correlation was for the CVM Stage IV for both males (r=0.554) and females (r=0.68). The lowest correlation was for the CVM Stage III in males (r=0.433, p<0.001) and for the CVM Stage II in females (r=0.393, p>0.001). The t-test revealed statistically significant differences between these variables (p<0.001) during the peak period. A statistically significant correlation (p<0.001) between tooth calcification and CVM stages was determined. The second molars showed the highest correlation with CVM stages (CVMS) (r= 0.65 for boys, r = 0.72 for girls). Conclusion: Dental age was more advanced than chronological for both boys and girls for all CVMS. During the peak period these differences were more pronounced. Moreover, all correlations between skeletal and dental stages were statistically significant. The second molars showed the highest correlation whereas the

COHORT CHANGE, DIFFUSION, AND SUPPORT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SPENDING IN THE UNITED STATES

PubMed Central

Pampel, Fred C.; Hunter, Lori M.

2013-01-01

The long-standing and sometimes heated debates over the direction and size of the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on environmental concern contrast post-materialist and affluence arguments, suggesting a positive relationship in high-income nations, with counter arguments for a negative or near zero relationship. A diffusion-of-innovations approach adapts parts of both arguments by predicting that high SES groups first adopt pro-environmental views, which produces a positive relationship. Like other innovations, however, environmentalism diffuses over time to other SES groups, which subsequently weakens the association. We test this argument using the General Social Survey from 1973 to 2008 to compare support for environmental spending across 83 cohorts born from around 1900 to 1982. In developing attitudes before, during, and after the emergence of environmentalism, varying cohorts provide the contrast needed to identify long-term changes in environmental concern. Multilevel age, period, and cohort models support diffusion arguments by demonstrating the effects, across cohorts, of three common indicators of SES – education, income and occupational prestige – first strengthen and then weaken. This finding suggests that diffusion of environmental concern first produces positive relationships consistent with postmaterialism arguments and later produces null or negative relationships consistent with global environmentalism arguments. PMID:24639591

COHORT CHANGE, DIFFUSION, AND SUPPORT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SPENDING IN THE UNITED STATES.

PubMed

Pampel, Fred C; Hunter, Lori M

2012-09-01

The long-standing and sometimes heated debates over the direction and size of the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on environmental concern contrast post-materialist and affluence arguments, suggesting a positive relationship in high-income nations, with counter arguments for a negative or near zero relationship. A diffusion-of-innovations approach adapts parts of both arguments by predicting that high SES groups first adopt pro-environmental views, which produces a positive relationship. Like other innovations, however, environmentalism diffuses over time to other SES groups, which subsequently weakens the association. We test this argument using the General Social Survey from 1973 to 2008 to compare support for environmental spending across 83 cohorts born from around 1900 to 1982. In developing attitudes before, during, and after the emergence of environmentalism, varying cohorts provide the contrast needed to identify long-term changes in environmental concern. Multilevel age, period, and cohort models support diffusion arguments by demonstrating the effects, across cohorts, of three common indicators of SES - education, income and occupational prestige - first strengthen and then weaken. This finding suggests that diffusion of environmental concern first produces positive relationships consistent with postmaterialism arguments and later produces null or negative relationships consistent with global environmentalism arguments.

Benefits gained, benefits lost: comparing baby boomers to other generations in a longitudinal cohort study of self-rated health.

PubMed

Badley, Elizabeth M; Canizares, Mayilee; Perruccio, Anthony V; Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah; Gignac, Monique A M

2015-03-01

POLICY POINTS: Despite beliefs that baby boomers are healthier than previous generations, we found no evidence that the health of baby boomers is substantially different from that of the previous or succeeding cohorts. The effects of increased education, higher income, and lower smoking rates on improving self-rated health were nearly counterbalanced by the adverse effect of increasing body mass index (BMI). Assumptions that baby boomers will require less health care as they age because of better education, more prosperity, and less propensity to smoke may not be realized because of increases in obesity. Baby boomers are commonly believed to be healthier than the previous generation. Using self-rated health (SRH) as an indicator of health status, this study examines the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trajectory of health across 4 generations: World War II (born between 1935 and 1944), older baby boomers (born between 1945 and 1954), younger baby boomers (born between 1955 and 1964), and Generation X (born between 1965 and 1974). We analyzed Canada's longitudinal National Population Health Survey 1994-2010 (n = 8,570 at baseline), using multilevel growth models to estimate the age trajectory of SRH by cohort, accounting for period and incorporating the influence of changes in education, household income, smoking status, and body mass index (BMI) on SRH over time. SRH worsened with increasing age in all cohorts. Cohort differences in SRH were modest (p = 0.034), but there was a significant period effect (p = 0.002). We found marked cohort effects for increasing education, income, and BMI, and decreasing smoking from the youngest to the oldest cohorts, which were much reduced (education and smoking) or removed (income and BMI) once period was taken into account. At the population level, multivariable analysis showed the benefits of increasing education and income and declines in smoking on the trajectory of improving SRH were almost counterbalanced by

Benefits Gained, Benefits Lost: Comparing Baby Boomers to Other Generations in a Longitudinal Cohort Study of Self-Rated Health

PubMed Central

BADLEY, ELIZABETH M; CANIZARES, MAYILEE; PERRUCCIO, ANTHONY V; HOGG-JOHNSON, SHEILAH; GIGNAC, MONIQUE AM

2015-01-01

Policy Points Despite beliefs that baby boomers are healthier than previous generations, we found no evidence that the health of baby boomers is substantially different from that of the previous or succeeding cohorts. The effects of increased education, higher income, and lower smoking rates on improving self-rated health were nearly counterbalanced by the adverse effect of increasing body mass index (BMI). Assumptions that baby boomers will require less health care as they age because of better education, more prosperity, and less propensity to smoke may not be realized because of increases in obesity. Context Baby boomers are commonly believed to be healthier than the previous generation. Using self-rated health (SRH) as an indicator of health status, this study examines the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trajectory of health across 4 generations: World War II (born between 1935 and 1944), older baby boomers (born between 1945 and 1954), younger baby boomers (born between 1955 and 1964), and Generation X (born between 1965 and 1974). Methods We analyzed Canada’s longitudinal National Population Health Survey 1994-2010 (n = 8,570 at baseline), using multilevel growth models to estimate the age trajectory of SRH by cohort, accounting for period and incorporating the influence of changes in education, household income, smoking status, and body mass index (BMI) on SRH over time. Findings SRH worsened with increasing age in all cohorts. Cohort differences in SRH were modest (p = 0.034), but there was a significant period effect (p = 0.002). We found marked cohort effects for increasing education, income, and BMI, and decreasing smoking from the youngest to the oldest cohorts, which were much reduced (education and smoking) or removed (income and BMI) once period was taken into account. At the population level, multivariable analysis showed the benefits of increasing education and income and declines in smoking on the trajectory of improving SRH were

The effectiveness of shingles vaccine among Albertans aged 50 years or older: A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

McDonald, Bruce M; Dover, Douglas C; Simmonds, Kimberley A; Bell, Christopher A; Svenson, Lawrence W; Russell, Margaret L

2017-12-15

We assessed the effectiveness of shingles vaccine in preventing incident shingles among Alberta residents aged 50 years or older over the period 2009 - 2015, using administrative health data. The cohort comprised of Albertans from the Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan Registry (AHCIP) as of June 30, 2009 and aged 50 years or older. Those who received shingles vaccine were identified from the provincial pharmaceutical information network. The occurrence of incident shingles was identified through both inpatient and outpatients/community care data. Incident shingles was defined as the earliest dated record of ICD 9-CM 053 or ICD-10-CA B02. Starting on November 1, 2009, individuals with no history of shingles or shingles vaccination were followed until Nov 1, 2015 (6 years), or until shingles incidence, death, or AHCIP cancellation (including leaving Alberta). Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as the inverse of the relative risk of developing incident shingles in each year following vaccination compared to time at risk without vaccination, while adjusting for age, sex, income quintile, and immune compromising conditions (identified from physician claims, inpatient, and cancer registry data). There were 1,094,236 individuals in the cohort, with 85,439 (7.80%) vaccinated individuals. The shingles incidence rate was 9.03 [95% CI: 8.95, 9.11] cases per 1,000 person years (49,243 cases). Adjusted VE in the first year following immunization was 50.02% [95% CI: 44.71%, 54.83%] against incident shingles, decreasing to no effect by the fifth year (VE = 14.00% [95% CI: -20.99%, 38.88%]). Our findings are consistent with observations from other population based studies and provide population level data for policy-makers to review when making decisions related to public funding of shingles vaccine. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The role of birth cohorts in long-term trends in liver cirrhosis mortality across eight European countries.

PubMed

Trias-Llimós, Sergi; Bijlsma, Maarten J; Janssen, Fanny

2017-02-01

Understanding why inequalities in alcohol-related mortality trends by sex and country exist is essential for developing health policies. Birth cohort effects, indicative of differences by generation in drinking, have rarely been studied. This study estimated the relative contributions of birth cohorts to liver cirrhosis mortality trends and compared sex- and country-specific cohort patterns across eight European countries. Time-series analysis of population-level mortality data. Austria, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden; 1950-2011. National populations aged 15-94 years. We modelled country- and sex-specific liver cirrhosis mortality (from national vital registers) adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. Birth cohorts (adjusted for age and period) made statistically significant contributions to liver cirrhosis mortality in all countries and for both sexes (P < 0.001), and more so among women (average contribution to deviance reduction of 38.8%) than among men (17.4%). The observed cohort patterns were statistically different between all but two country pairs (P < 0.001). Sex differences existed overall (P < 0.001), but not in the majority of countries (P > 0.999). Visual inspection of birth cohort patterns reveals birth cohorts at higher risk of liver cirrhosis mortality. The inclusion of the birth cohort dimension improves the understanding of alcohol-attributable mortality trends in Europe. Birth cohorts at higher risk of liver cirrhosis mortality were born during 1935-49 in Sweden and Finland, around 1950 in Austria and the Netherlands and 1960 or later in Hungary, Italy, Poland and Spain. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Family Sponsorship and Late-Age Immigration in Aging America: Revised and Expanded Estimates of Chained Migration.

PubMed

Carr, Stacie; Tienda, Marta

2013-12-01

We use the Immigrants Admitted to the United States (micro-data) supplemented with special tabulations from the Department of Homeland Security to examine how family reunification impacts the age composition of new immigrant cohorts since 1980. We develop a family migration multiplier measure for the period 1981 to 2009 that improves on prior studies by including immigrants granted legal status under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act and relaxing unrealistic assumptions required by synthetic cohort measures. Results show that every 100 initiating immigrants admitted between 1981-85 sponsored an average of 260 family members; the comparable figure for initiating immigrants for the 1996-2000 cohort is 345 family members. Furthermore, the number of family migrants ages 50 and over rose from 44 to 74 per 100 initiating migrants. The discussion considers the health and welfare implications of late-age immigration in a climate of growing fiscal restraint and an aging native population.

Family Sponsorship and Late-Age Immigration in Aging America: Revised and Expanded Estimates of Chained Migration

PubMed Central

Carr, Stacie; Tienda, Marta

2013-01-01

We use the Immigrants Admitted to the United States (micro-data) supplemented with special tabulations from the Department of Homeland Security to examine how family reunification impacts the age composition of new immigrant cohorts since 1980. We develop a family migration multiplier measure for the period 1981 to 2009 that improves on prior studies by including immigrants granted legal status under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act and relaxing unrealistic assumptions required by synthetic cohort measures. Results show that every 100 initiating immigrants admitted between 1981–85 sponsored an average of 260 family members; the comparable figure for initiating immigrants for the 1996–2000 cohort is 345 family members. Furthermore, the number of family migrants ages 50 and over rose from 44 to 74 per 100 initiating migrants. The discussion considers the health and welfare implications of late-age immigration in a climate of growing fiscal restraint and an aging native population. PMID:24415816

Disk displacement, eccentric condylar position, osteoarthrosis - misnomers for variations of normality? Results and interpretations from an MRI study in two age cohorts.

PubMed

Türp, Jens C; Schlenker, Anna; Schröder, Johannes; Essig, Marco; Schmitter, Marc

2016-11-17

Clinical decision-making and prognostic statements in individuals with manifest or suspected temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) may involve assessment of (a) the position of articular disc relative to the mandibular condyle, (b) the location of the condyle relative to the temporal joint surfaces, and (c) the depth of the glenoid fossa of the temporomandibular joints (TMJs). The aim of this study was twofold: (1) Determination of the prevalence of these variables in two representative population-based birth cohorts. (2) Reinterpretation of the clinical significance of the findings. From existing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of the TMJs that had been taken in 2005 and 2006 from 72 subjects born between 1930 and 1932 and between 1950 and 1952, respectively, the condylar position at closed jaw was calculated as percentage displacement of the condyle from absolute centricity. By using the criteria introduced by Orsini et al. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 86:489-97, 1998), a textbook-like disc position at closed jaw was distinguished from an anterior location. TMJ morphology of the temporal joint surfaces was assessed at open jaw by measuring the depth of the glenoid fossa, using the method proposed by Muto et al. (J Oral Maxillofac Surg 52:1269-72, 1994). Frequency distributions were recorded for the condylar and disc positions at closed jaw. Student's t-test with independent samples was used as test of significance to detect differences of condylar positions between the age cohorts (1930 vs. 1950) and the sexes. The significance levels were set at 5%. First, the results from the measurement of the age cohorts were compared without differentiation of sexes, i.e., age cohort 1930-1932 versus age cohort 1950-1952. Subsequently, the age cohorts were compared by sex, i.e., men in cohort 1930-1932 versus men in cohort 1950-1952, and women in cohort 1930-1932 women men in cohort 1950-1952. In both cohorts, condylar position was characterized by

Measuring trends in age at first sex and age at marriage in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Cremin, I; Mushati, P; Hallett, T; Mupambireyi, Z; Nyamukapa, C; Garnett, G P; Gregson, S

2009-04-01

To identify reporting biases and to determine the influence of inconsistent reporting on observed trends in the timing of age at first sex and age at marriage. Longitudinal data from three rounds of a population-based cohort in eastern Zimbabwe were analysed. Reports of age at first sex and age at marriage from 6837 individuals attending multiple rounds were classified according to consistency. Survival analysis was used to identify trends in the timing of first sex and marriage. In this population, women initiate sex and enter marriage at younger ages than men but spend much less time between first sex and marriage. Among those surveyed between 1998 and 2005, median ages at first sex and first marriage were 18.5 years and 21.4 years for men and 18.2 years and 18.5 years, respectively, for women aged 15-54 years. High levels of reports of both age at first sex and age at marriage among those attending multiple surveys were found to be unreliable. Excluding reports identified as unreliable from these analyses did not alter the observed trends in either age at first sex or age at marriage. Tracing birth cohorts as they aged revealed reporting biases, particularly among the youngest cohorts. Comparisons by birth cohorts, which span a period of >40 years, indicate that median age at first sex has remained constant over time for women but has declined gradually for men. Although many reports of age at first sex and age at marriage were found to be unreliable, inclusion of such reports did not result in artificial generation or suppression of trends.

Determinants of number-specific recall error of last menstrual period: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

van Oppenraaij, R H F; Eilers, P H C; Willemsen, S P; van Dunné, F M; Exalto, N; Steegers, E A P

2015-05-01

To assess the digit preference for last menstrual period (LMP) dates, associated determinants and impact on obstetric outcome. Retrospective cohort study. University medical centre (the Netherlands). Cohort of 24 665 LMP records and a subgroup of 4630 cases with known crown-rump length (CRL) measurement, and obstetric outcome. Digit preference was determined by comparing the observed to expected counts of each day. Associated determinants were identified by multivariate regression analysis. Differences in obstetric outcome between LMP and CRL dating were analysed. (Non)deprived neighbourhood, cycle irregularity, certainty of LMP date, maternal age, smoking, body mass index, parity and ultrasound investigator. Preterm and post-term delivery. LMP digit preference for the first [odds ratio (OR), 1.28; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.20-1.36], fifth (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17), 10th (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.09-1.25), 15th (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.23-1.40), 20th (OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.15-1.30) and 25th (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.15) days of the month occurred more often than expected. Digit preference occurred more frequently in women living in a deprived neighbourhood (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.06-1.39), with uncertain LMP (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.63-2.52) or irregular cycle (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.06-1.44). More post-term (≥42 weeks) deliveries (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.05-1.54) were observed in LMP dating. This effect was larger in women with a digit preference (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.03-2.37). LMP digit preference occurs more often in women living in deprived neighbourhoods, with uncertain LMP or an irregular cycle. LMP-dated pregnancies are associated with more post-term pregnancies. © 2014 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Historical Evolution of Old-Age Mortality and New Approaches to Mortality Forecasting

PubMed Central

Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.; Krut'ko, Vyacheslav N.

2017-01-01

Knowledge of future mortality levels and trends is important for actuarial practice but poses a challenge to actuaries and demographers. The Lee-Carter method, currently used for mortality forecasting, is based on the assumption that the historical evolution of mortality at all age groups is driven by one factor only. This approach cannot capture an additive manner of mortality decline observed before the 1960s. To overcome the limitation of the one-factor model of mortality and to determine the true number of factors underlying mortality changes over time, we suggest a new approach to mortality analysis and forecasting based on the method of latent variable analysis. The basic assumption of this approach is that most variation in mortality rates over time is a manifestation of a small number of latent variables, variation in which gives rise to the observed mortality patterns. To extract major components of mortality variation, we apply factor analysis to mortality changes in developed countries over the period of 1900–2014. Factor analysis of time series of age-specific death rates in 12 developed countries (data taken from the Human Mortality Database) identified two factors capable of explaining almost 94 to 99 percent of the variance in the temporal changes of adult death rates at ages 25 to 85 years. Analysis of these two factors reveals that the first factor is a “young-age” or background factor with high factor loadings at ages 30 to 45 years. The second factor can be called an “oldage” or senescent factor because of high factor loadings at ages 65 to 85 years. It was found that the senescent factor was relatively stable in the past but now is rapidly declining for both men and women. The decline of the senescent factor is faster for men, although in most countries, it started almost 30 years later. Factor analysis of time series of age-specific death rates conducted for the oldest-old ages (65 to 100 years) found two factors explaining variation

Semi-classical approach to transitionless quantum driving: Explicitness and Locality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loewe, Benjamin; Hipolito, Rafael; Goldbart, Paul M.

Berry has shown that, via a reverse engineering strategy, non-adiabatic transitions in time-dependent quantum systems can be stifled through the introduction of a specific auxiliary hamiltonian. This hamiltonian comes, however, expressed as a formal sum of outer products of the original instantaneous eigenstates and their time-derivatives. Generically, how to create such an operator in the laboratory is thus not evident. Furthermore, the operator may be non- local. By following a semi-classical approach, we obtain a recipe that yields the auxiliary hamiltonian explicitly in terms of the fundamental operators of the system (e.g., position and momentum). By using this formalism, we are able to ascertain criteria for the locality of the auxiliary hamiltonian, and also to determine its exact form in certain special cases.

Intertooth patterns of hypoplasia expression: implications for childhood health in the classic Maya collapse.

PubMed

Wright, L E

1997-02-01

Enamel hypoplasias, which record interacting stresses of nutrition and illness during the period of tooth formation, are a key tool in the study of childhood health in prehistory. But interpretation of the age of peak morbidity is complicated by differences in susceptibility to stress both between tooth positions and within a single tooth. Here, hypoplasias are used to evaluate the prevailing ecological model for the collapse of Classic Period Lowland Maya civilization, circa AD 900. Hypoplasias were recorded in the full dentition of 160 adult skeletons from six archaeological sites in the Pasion River region of Guatemala. Instead of constructing a composite scale of stress experience, teeth are considered separately by position in the analysis. No statistical differences are found in the proportion of teeth affected by hypoplasia between "Early," Late Classic, and Terminal Classic Periods for anterior teeth considered to be most susceptible to stress, indicating stability in the overall stress loads affecting children of the three chronological periods. However, hypoplasia trends in posterior teeth may imply a change in the ontogenetic-timing of more severe stress episodes during the final occupation and perhaps herald a shift in child-care practices. These results provide little support for the ecological model of collapse but do call to attention the potential of posterior teeth to reveal subtle changes in childhood morbidity when consideredindividually.

Ensembles and Experiments in Classical and Quantum Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neumaier, Arnold

A philosophically consistent axiomatic approach to classical and quantum mechanics is given. The approach realizes a strong formal implementation of Bohr's correspondence principle. In all instances, classical and quantum concepts are fully parallel: the same general theory has a classical realization and a quantum realization. Extending the ''probability via expectation'' approach of Whittle to noncommuting quantities, this paper defines quantities, ensembles, and experiments as mathematical concepts and shows how to model complementarity, uncertainty, probability, nonlocality and dynamics in these terms. The approach carries no connotation of unlimited repeatability; hence it can be applied to unique systems such as the universe. Consistent experiments provide an elegant solution to the reality problem, confirming the insistence of the orthodox Copenhagen interpretation on that there is nothing but ensembles, while avoiding its elusive reality picture. The weak law of large numbers explains the emergence of classical properties for macroscopic systems.

Effect of maternal age on the risk of preterm birth: A large cohort study.

PubMed

Fuchs, Florent; Monet, Barbara; Ducruet, Thierry; Chaillet, Nils; Audibert, Francois

2018-01-01

Maternal age at pregnancy is increasing worldwide as well as preterm birth. However, the association between prematurity and advanced maternal age remains controversial. To evaluate the impact of maternal age on the occurrence of preterm birth after controlling for multiple known confounders in a large birth cohort. Retrospective cohort study using data from the QUARISMA study, a large Canadian randomized controlled trial, which collected data from 184,000 births in 32 hospitals. Inclusion criteria were maternal age over 20 years. Exclusion criteria were multiple pregnancy, fetal malformation and intra-uterine fetal death. Five maternal age categories were defined and compared for maternal characteristics, gestational and obstetric complications, and risk factors for prematurity. Risk factors for preterm birth <37 weeks, either spontaneous or iatrogenic, were evaluated for different age groups using multivariate logistic regression. 165,282 births were included in the study. Chronic hypertension, assisted reproduction techniques, pre-gestational diabetes, invasive procedure in pregnancy, gestational diabetes and placenta praevia were linearly associated with increasing maternal age whereas hypertensive disorders of pregnancy followed a "U" shaped distribution according to maternal age. Crude rates of preterm birth before 37 weeks followed a "U" shaped curve with a nadir at 5.7% for the group of 30-34 years. In multivariate analysis, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of prematurity stratified by age group followed a "U" shaped distribution with an aOR of 1.08 (95%CI; 1.01-1.15) for 20-24 years, and 1.20 (95% CI; 1.06-1.36) for 40 years and older. Confounders found to have the greatest impact were placenta praevia, hypertensive complications, and maternal medical history. Even after adjustment for confounders, advanced maternal age (40 years and over) was associated with preterm birth. A maternal age of 30-34 years was associated with the lowest risk of prematurity.

[A prospective cohort study on injuries among school-age children with and without behavior problems].

PubMed

Peng, Ying-chun; Ni, Jin-fa; Tao, Fang-biao; Wu, Xi-ke

2003-08-01

To study the annual incidence of injuries and the relationship between behavior problems and injuries among school-age children. A prospective cohort study on injuries for 1-year follow-up period was conducted among 2 005 school-age children selected by cluster sampling from three primary schools in Maanshan city. They subjects were divided into two groups with or without exposure according to behavior problems rated by the Rutter Child Behavior Questionnaire at the beginning of the study. Nonparametric test was performed to analyze the differences in injuries between the two groups of children, and the influential factors for injuries were analyzed with multi-classification ordinal response variable logistic regression model. The overall incidence rate for injuries in school-age children was 42.51%, while among children with and without behavior problems were 64.87% and 38.85%, respectively. There were significant differences between the two groups (u = -6.054, P = 0.000). However, the incidence rates of injuries in school-age children with antisocial (A) behavior, neurotic (N) behavior and mixed (M) behavior were 66.99%, 67.41% and 61.40%, respectively. No significant differences were found among them (u(A,N) = -0.052, P = 0.958; u(A,M) = -0.400, P = 0.689; u(N,M) = -0.364, P = 0.716). Multivariate analysis indicated that injuries in school-age children were associated with children behavior problems, maternal age at childbirth, bad conditions during mother pregnancy, education background of mother, prevention measures for safety at home and the child accompanied to travel between school and home by adults. Behavior problems of children seemed to be the major risk factors for injuries. Children with behavior problems represented a significant risk group for injuries among school-age children. When planning intervention strategies on injuries, behavior problems should be emphasized to ensure optimal effectiveness of intervention.

Cohort profile: effect of malaria in early pregnancy on fetal growth in Benin (RECIPAL preconceptional cohort)

PubMed Central

Accrombessi, Manfred; Yovo, Emmanuel; Cottrell, Gilles; Agbota, Gino; Gartner, Agnès; Martin-Prevel, Yves; Fanou-Fogny, Nadia; Djossinou, Diane; Zeitlin, Jennifer; Tuikue-Ndam, Nicaise; Bodeau-Livinec, Florence; Houzé, Sandrine; Jackson, Nicola; Ayemonna, Paul; Massougbodji, Achille; Cot, Michel; Fievet, Nadine; Briand, Valérie

2018-01-01

Purpose REtard de Croissance Intra-uterin et PALudisme (RECIPAL) is an original preconceptional cohort designed to assess the consequences of malaria during the first trimester of pregnancy, which is a poorly investigated period in Africa and during which malaria may be detrimental to the fetus. Participants For this purpose, a total of 1214 women of reproductive age living in Sô-Ava and Akassato districts (south Benin) were followed up monthly from June 2014 to December 2016 until 411 of them became pregnant. A large range of health determinants was collected both before and during pregnancy from the first weeks of gestation to delivery. Five Doppler ultrasound scans were performed for early dating of the pregnancy and longitudinal fetal growth assessment. Findings to date Pregnant women were identified at a mean of 6.9 weeks of gestation (wg). Preliminary results confirmed the high prevalence of malaria in the first trimester of pregnancy, with more than 25.4% of women presenting at least one microscopic malarial infection during this period. Most infections occurred before six wg. The prevalence of low birth weight, small birth weight for gestational age (according to INTERGROWTH-21st charts) and preterm birth was 9.3%, 18.3% and 12.6%, respectively. Future plans REtard de Croissance Intra-uterin et PALudisme (RECIPAL) represents at this time a unique resource that will provide information on multiple infectious (including malaria), biological, nutritional and environmental determinants in relation to health outcomes in women of reproductive age, pregnant women and their newborns. It will contribute to better define future recommendations for the prevention of malaria in early pregnancy and maternal malnutrition in Africa. It confirms that it is possible to constitute a preconceptional pregnancy cohort in Africa and provides valuable information for researchers starting cohorts in the future. PMID:29317419

Breast-feeding and atopic disease: a cohort study from childhood to middle age.

PubMed

Matheson, Melanie Claire; Erbas, Bircan; Balasuriya, Aindralal; Jenkins, Mark Andrew; Wharton, Cathryn Leisa; Tang, Mimi Lai-Kuan; Abramson, Michael John; Walters, Eugene Haydn; Hopper, John Llewelyn; Dharmage, Shyamali Chandrika

2007-11-01

The literature regarding the association between breast-feeding and atopic diseases has been contradictory. We have assessed the relationship between breast-feeding and atopic disorders in a cohort followed into middle age. The Tasmanian Asthma Study is a population-based prospective cohort study that has followed participants from the age of 7 to 44 years. Exclusive breast-feeding in the first 3 months of life was examined as a risk factor for atopic diseases by using multiple logistic regression and generalized estimating equation analyses. At age 7 years, exclusively breast-fed children with a maternal history of atopy had a marginally lesser risk of current asthma than those not exclusively breast-fed (odds ratio [OR], 0.8; 95% CI, 0.6-1.0). However, after age 7 years, the risk reversed, and exclusively breast-fed children had an increased risk of current asthma at 14 (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.02-2.07), 32 (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.06-3.3), and 44 (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.15-2.14) years. Exclusively breast-fed children also had a reduced risk of food allergy at age 7 years but an increased risk of food allergy (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5) and allergic rhinitis (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3) at 44 years. Exclusively breast-fed babies with a maternal history of atopy were less likely to develop asthma before the age of 7 years, but more likely to develop asthma after the age of 7 years. The current recommendation to breast-feed high-risk infants for protection against early wheezing illness can be confirmed. However, the recommendation should be reconsidered for protection against allergic asthma and atopy in the longer term.

The Middle Ages Contributions to Cardiovascular Medicine

PubMed Central

Ranhel, André Silva; Mesquita, Evandro Tinoco

2016-01-01

The historical period called the Middle Ages, a long interval between the 5th and the 15th centuries, is still commonly known as the Dark Ages, especially in the area of health sciences. In the last decades, this "classic" view of the Middle Ages has been gradually modified with advances in historiographical studies and the history of science. During that period in Western Europe, knowledge about the human body suffered a regression in terms of anatomy and physiology, with the predominance of religious conceptions mainly about diseases and their treatments. Knowledge on the cardiovascular system and heart diseases has been classically described as a repetition of the concepts developed by Galen from the dissection of animals and his keen sense of observation. However, the Middle East, especially Persia, was the birth place of a lot of intellectuals who preserved the ancient knowledge of the Greeks while building new knowledge and practices, especially from the 8th to the 13th century. The invasion of the Arabs in North of Africa and the Iberian Peninsula and the eclosion of the Crusades resulted in a greater contact between the East and the West, which in turn brought on the arrival of the Arab medical knowledge, among others, to 12th century Europe. Such fact contributed to an extremely important change in the scientific medical knowledge in the West, leading to the incorporation of different concepts and practices in the field of cardiovascular Medicine. The new way of teaching and practicing Medicine of the great Arab doctors, together with the teaching hospitals and foundations in the Koran, transformed the Medicine practiced in Europe definitely. The objective of this paper is to describe the knowledge drawn up from the Middle Ages about the cardiovascular system, its understanding and therapeutic approach to cardiologists and cardiovascular surgeons. PMID:27556317

Classical Dynamics of Fullerenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sławianowski, Jan J.; Kotowski, Romuald K.

2017-06-01

The classical mechanics of large molecules and fullerenes is studied. The approach is based on the model of collective motion of these objects. The mixed Lagrangian (material) and Eulerian (space) description of motion is used. In particular, the Green and Cauchy deformation tensors are geometrically defined. The important issue is the group-theoretical approach to describing the affine deformations of the body. The Hamiltonian description of motion based on the Poisson brackets methodology is used. The Lagrange and Hamilton approaches allow us to formulate the mechanics in the canonical form. The method of discretization in analytical continuum theory and in classical dynamics of large molecules and fullerenes enable us to formulate their dynamics in terms of the polynomial expansions of configurations. Another approach is based on the theory of analytical functions and on their approximations by finite-order polynomials. We concentrate on the extremely simplified model of affine deformations or on their higher-order polynomial perturbations.

Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men

PubMed Central

Jee, Yon Ho; Shin, Aesun; Lee, Jong-Keun; Oh, Chang-Mo

2016-01-01

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984–2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): −3.1 (95% CI, −4.6 to −1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC −2.4 (95% CI −2.7 to −2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC −2.5 (95% CI −4.1 to −0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC −5.2 (95% CI −5.7 to −4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): −3.3 (95% CI −4.7 to −1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates. PMID:27929405

On the hypothesis that quantum mechanism manifests classical mechanics: Numerical approach to the correspondence in search of quantum chaos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Sang-Bong

1993-09-01

Quantum manifestation of classical chaos has been one of the extensively studied subjects for more than a decade. Yet clear understanding of its nature still remains to be an open question partly due to the lack of a canonical definition of quantum chaos. The classical definition seems to be unsuitable in quantum mechanics partly because of the Heisenberg quantum uncertainty. In this regard, quantum chaos is somewhat misleading and needs to be clarified at the very fundamental level of physics. Since it is well known that quantum mechanics is more fundamental than classical mechanics, the quantum description of classically chaoticmore » nature should be attainable in the limit of large quantum numbers. The focus of my research, therefore, lies on the correspondence principle for classically chaotic systems. The chaotic damped driven pendulum is mainly studied numerically using the split operator method that solves the time-dependent Schroedinger equation. For classically dissipative chaotic systems in which (multi)fractal strange attractors often emerge, several quantum dissipative mechanisms are also considered. For instance, Hoover`s and Kubo-Fox-Keizer`s approaches are studied with some computational analyses. But the notion of complex energy with non-Hermiticity is extensively applied. Moreover, the Wigner and Husimi distribution functions are examined with an equivalent classical distribution in phase-space, and dynamical properties of the wave packet in configuration and momentum spaces are also explored. The results indicate that quantum dynamics embraces classical dynamics although the classicalquantum correspondence fails to be observed in the classically chaotic regime. Even in the semi-classical limits, classically chaotic phenomena would eventually be suppressed by the quantum uncertainty.« less

Establishment and baseline characteristics of a nationwide Danish cohort of patients with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Kulas Søborg, Marie-Louise; Leganger, Julie; Quitzau Mortensen, Laura; Rosenberg, Jacob; Burcharth, Jakob

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate national prevalence, general demographic characteristics and survival of Danish patients with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS). A population-based cohort study was conducted using a database consisting of the entire Danish population alive at any given time between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2012, based upon longitudinal Danish national registers. All patients with EDS were identified, and the cohort was described by disease prevalence, basic demographic characteristics, mean age at death and mortality for the observational period of 13 years. The cohort held 1427 unique persons with EDS, giving a national prevalence of 0.02%. The EDS population had a mean ( s . d .) age of 34.9 (18.6) years and comprised 73.9% females and 26.1% males. Of the cohort, 95.9% originated from Denmark and 57% were unmarried. We found that 31.6% of the cohort received state-granted subsidies, of which 77% were in the form of early retirement pension. Regarding educational status, 28.1% of the EDS cohort had completed primary education (⩽10th grade) as their highest educational level, while 71.9% had completed a higher level. During the observation period, 42 patients died, with a mean ( s . d .) age at death of 53.6 (21.7) years. This study confirmed a small national prevalence of patients diagnosed with EDS and showed that the majority of patients diagnosed are female. The EDS cohort had a lower educational level, mean age and life expectancy compared with the background population and showed a predisposition for receiving state-granted subsidies. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Cohort Profile Update: the TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS).

PubMed

Oldehinkel, Albertine J; Rosmalen, Judith Gm; Buitelaar, Jan K; Hoek, Hans W; Ormel, Johan; Raven, Dennis; Reijneveld, Sijmen A; Veenstra, René; Verhulst, Frank C; Vollebergh, Wilma Am; Hartman, Catharina A

2015-02-01

TRAILS consists of a population cohort (N=2230) and a clinical cohort (N=543), both of which were followed from about age 11 years onwards. To date, the population cohort has been assessed five times over a period of 11 years, with retention rates ranging between 80% and 96%. The clinical cohort has been assessed four times over a period of 8 years, with retention rates ranging between 77% and 85%. Since the IJE published a cohort profile on the TRAILS in 2008, the participants have matured from adolescents into young adults. The focus shifted from parents and school to entry into the labour market and family formation, including offspring. Furthermore, psychiatric diagnostic interviews were administered, the database was linked to a Psychiatric Case Registry, and the availability of genome-wide SNP variations opened the door to genome-wide association studies regarding a wide range of (endo)phenotypes. With some delay, TRAILS data are available to researchers outside the TRAILS consortium without costs; access can be obtained by submitting a publication proposal (see www.trails.nl). © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Parental, Prenatal, and Neonatal Associations With Ball Skills at Age 8 Using an Exposome Approach

PubMed Central

Gregory, Steven; Iles-Caven, Yasmin; Lingam, Raghu; Davis, John M.; Emmett, Pauline; Steer, Colin D.; Hibbeln, Joseph R.

2014-01-01

There is little consistency in the literature concerning factors that influence motor coordination in children. A hypothesis-free “exposome” approach was used with 7359 children using longitudinal information covering 3 generations in regard to throwing a ball accurately at age 7 years. The analyses showed an independent robust negative association with mother’s unhappiness in her midchildhood (6-11 years). No such association was present for study fathers. The offspring of parents who described themselves as having poor eyesight had poorer ability. This hypothesis-free approach has identified a strong negative association with an unhappy childhood. Future studies of this cohort will be used to determine whether the mechanism is manifest through differing parenting skills, or a biological mechanism reflecting epigenetic effects. PMID:24828115

Parental, prenatal, and neonatal associations with ball skills at age 8 using an exposome approach.

PubMed

Golding, Jean; Gregory, Steven; Iles-Caven, Yasmin; Lingam, Raghu; Davis, John M; Emmett, Pauline; Steer, Colin D; Hibbeln, Joseph R

2014-10-01

There is little consistency in the literature concerning factors that influence motor coordination in children. A hypothesis-free "exposome" approach was used with 7359 children using longitudinal information covering 3 generations in regard to throwing a ball accurately at age 7 years. The analyses showed an independent robust negative association with mother's unhappiness in her midchildhood (6-11 years). No such association was present for study fathers. The offspring of parents who described themselves as having poor eyesight had poorer ability. This hypothesis-free approach has identified a strong negative association with an unhappy childhood. Future studies of this cohort will be used to determine whether the mechanism is manifest through differing parenting skills, or a biological mechanism reflecting epigenetic effects. © The Author(s) 2014.

The Classic Measure of Disability in Activities of Daily Living Is Biased by Age but an Expanded IADL/ADL Measure Is Not

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Objectives. To evaluate, by age, the performance of 2 disability measures based on needing help: one using 5 classic activities of daily living (ADL) and another using an expanded set of 14 activities including instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), walking, getting outside, and ADL (IADL/ADL). Methods. Guttman and item response theory (IRT) scaling methods are used with a large (N = 25,470) nationally representative household survey of individuals aged 18 years and older. Results. Guttman scalability of the ADL items increases steadily with age, reaching a high level at ages 75 years and older. That is reflected in an IRT model by age-related differential item functioning (DIF) resulting in age-biased measurement of ADL. Guttman scalability of the IADL/ADL items also increases with age but is lower than the ADL. Although age-related DIF also occurs with IADL/ADL items, DIF is lower in magnitude and balances out without causing age bias. Discussion. An IADL/ADL scale measuring need for help is hierarchical, unidimensional, and unbiased by age. It has greater content validity for measuring need for help in the community and shows greater sensitivity by age than the classic ADL measure. As demand for community services is increasing among adults of all ages, an expanded IADL/ADL measure is more useful than ADL. PMID:20100786

[Willingness to accept an Internet-based mobility platform in different age cohorts. Empiric results of the project S-Mobil 100].

PubMed

Beil, J; Cihlar, V; Kruse, A

2015-02-01

The aim of the project S-Mobil 100 is to develop and implement a prototype of an internet-based, generation-appropriate mobility platform in the model region Siegen-Wittgenstein. In the context of an empirical preliminary study, use of technology, experience with technology, general attitudes towards technology, general technology commitment, and the willingness to accept the mobility platform were investigated in different age cohorts. The investigation was carried out using a written survey based on a standardized questionnaire. The sample of 358 persons aged 40-90 years was divided in four age cohorts (40-54, 55-64, 65-74, and 75 + years). Our results show a high willingness to accept the mobility platform in the overall sample. Age, residence, income, and general technology commitment were significant predictors for the judgment of the platform. Although there were group differences in accepting the mobility platform, the older cohorts are also open-minded towards this new technology.

Neuropsychologic status at the age 4 years and atopy in a population-based birth cohort.

PubMed

Julvez, J; Torrent, M; Guxens, M; Antó, J M; Guerra, S; Sunyer, J

2009-09-01

Mental health has been reported to be associated with allergy, but only a few cohort studies have assessed if neurodevelopment predicts atopy. To investigate if neurobehavioral status of healthy 4-year-old children was associated with specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) at the same age and skin prick test results 2 years later. A population-based birth cohort enrolled 482 children, 422 of them (87%) provided neurobehavioral data, 341 (71%) had specific IgE measured at the age of 4 years; and 395 (82%) had skin prick tests completed at the age of 6 years. Atopy was defined as IgE levels higher than 0.35 kU/l to any of the three tested allergens at the age of 4 or as a positive skin prick test to any of the six tested allergens at the age of 6. McCarthy Scales of Child Abilities and California Preschool Social Competence Scale were the psychometric instruments used. Twelve percent of children at the age of 4 and 17% at the age of 6 were atopic. Neurobehavioral scores were negatively associated with 6-year-old atopy after adjustment for socio-demographic and allergic factors, A relative risk of 3.06 (95% CI: 1.30-7.24) was associated with the lowest tertile (scorings < or =90 points) of the general cognitive scale. Similar results were found for verbal abilities, executive functions, and social competence. Asthma, wheezing, rhinitis, and eczema at the age of 6, but not at the age of 4, were associated with neurodevelopment at the age of 4. Neuropsychologic functioning and later atopy are negatively associated in preschool age children.

Supportive Family Environments Ameliorate the Link Between Racial Discrimination and Epigenetic Aging: A Replication Across Two Longitudinal Cohorts

PubMed Central

Brody, Gene H.; Miller, Gregory E.; Yu, Tianyi; Beach, Steven R. H.; Chen, Edith

2015-01-01

This study tested the hypothesis that supportive family environments during adolescence will buffer exposure to racial discrimination, reducing its impact on biological weathering and its manifestation in cellular aging. Indicators of racial discrimination, supportive family environments, and covariates were collected for 3 consecutive years across adolescence from 2 independent cohorts of African American youth from rural Georgia. DNA was extracted from peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected during young adulthood. Patterns of methylation were used to index epigenetic ages of these cells and the extent to which they differed from participants’ chronological ages. Among youth in supportive family environments, exposure to high levels of racial discrimination did not forecast epigenetic aging. Among youth in less supportive family environments, exposure to high levels of racial discrimination forecast faster epigenetic aging. The results did not change when confounder variables were included in the data analyses, and the results were replicated across cohorts. PMID:26917213

Linear enamel hypoplasia at Xcambó, Yucatán, during the Maya Classic period: An evaluation of coastal marshland impact on ancient human populations.

PubMed

Méndez Collí, C; Sierra Sosa, T N; Tiesler, V; Cucina, A

2009-01-01

Non-specific stress markers such as linear enamel hypoplasia (LEH) have been associated in the literature with a large number of possible conditions disrupting the individual's homeostasis, though metabolic strain originating synergistically by disease and malnutrition has been held to be the main cause behind enamel disruption. The analysis of LEH in the Maya Classic period site of Xcambó, located along the northern coast of the Yucatán peninsula, reveals high exposure to stressful conditions during infancy regardless of age and sex. Yet, the inhabitants of the site were of a medium to high social and economic status, with access to balanced and protein-rich nutritional resources, which should have functioned as a cultural buffer to the impact of stress. In the light of this apparent contradiction, this paper discusses the impact of environmental conditions on the record of metabolic stress. Our conclusions pose a cautionary caveat for inferring nutrition and status in ancient pre-antibiotic populations solely from the occurrence of linear enamel hypoplasia.

A Cohort Approach to Real-Time Detection of Acute HIV Infections Among People Who Inject Drugs in St. Petersburg, Russia.

PubMed

Toussova, Olga V; Kozlov, Andrei P; Verevochkin, Sergei V; Lancaster, Kathryn E; Shaboltas, Alla V; Masharsky, Alexei; Dukhovlinova, Elena; Miller, William C; Hoffman, Irving F

2018-03-01

To detect acute HIV infections (AHIs) in real time among people who inject drugs (PWID) in St. Petersburg, Russia and to test the feasibility of this approach. Prospective cohort study. One hundred seronegative or acutely HIV-infected at screening PWID were enrolled and followed until the end of the 12-month pilot period. Each participant was evaluated, tested, and counseled for HIV monthly. Two HIV tests were used: HIV antibody and HIV RNA PCR. If diagnosed with AHI, participants were followed weekly for a month; then, monthly for 3 months; and then, quarterly for the duration of the follow-up period. HIV risk behavior was assessed at each study visit. Most enrolled PWID were 30-39 years old, male, completed high school or more, not employed full-time, heroin users, and frequently shared injection paraphernalia. AHI prevalence at screening was 1.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.4, 5.5]. Three participants with AHI at enrollment represented 3% (95% CI: 0.6, 8.5) of the 100 participants who consented to enroll. Among the HIV-uninfected participants (n = 97), the AHI incidence over time was 9.3 per 100 person-years. Persons with AHI were more likely to report alcohol intoxication within the prior 30 days. This was the first study to detect AHI using a cohort approach. The approach proved to be feasible: recruitment, retention, AHI detection, and virological endpoints were successfully reached. A cost analysis in a real-world setting would be required to determine if this strategy could be brought to scale. The study revealed continued high HIV incidence rate among PWID in St. Petersburg, Russia and the importance of prevention and treatment programs for this group.

Novel ageing-biomarker discovery using data-intensive technologies.

PubMed

Griffiths, H R; Augustyniak, E M; Bennett, S J; Debacq-Chainiaux, F; Dunston, C R; Kristensen, P; Melchjorsen, C J; Navarrete, Santos A; Simm, A; Toussaint, O

2015-11-01

Ageing is accompanied by many visible characteristics. Other biological and physiological markers are also well-described e.g. loss of circulating sex hormones and increased inflammatory cytokines. Biomarkers for healthy ageing studies are presently predicated on existing knowledge of ageing traits. The increasing availability of data-intensive methods enables deep-analysis of biological samples for novel biomarkers. We have adopted two discrete approaches in MARK-AGE Work Package 7 for biomarker discovery; (1) microarray analyses and/or proteomics in cell systems e.g. endothelial progenitor cells or T cell ageing including a stress model; and (2) investigation of cellular material and plasma directly from tightly-defined proband subsets of different ages using proteomic, transcriptomic and miR array. The first approach provided longitudinal insight into endothelial progenitor and T cell ageing. This review describes the strategy and use of hypothesis-free, data-intensive approaches to explore cellular proteins, miR, mRNA and plasma proteins as healthy ageing biomarkers, using ageing models and directly within samples from adults of different ages. It considers the challenges associated with integrating multiple models and pilot studies as rational biomarkers for a large cohort study. From this approach, a number of high-throughput methods were developed to evaluate novel, putative biomarkers of ageing in the MARK-AGE cohort. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incidence of cancer among UK Gulf war veterans: cohort study.

PubMed

Macfarlane, Gary J; Biggs, Anne-Marie; Maconochie, Noreen; Hotopf, Matthew; Doyle, Patricia; Lunt, Mark

2003-12-13

To determine whether incidence rates of cancer are higher in UK service personnel who were deployed in the Gulf war than in those not deployed and whether any increased risk of cancer is related to self reported exposures to potentially hazardous material during the period of deployment. A cohort study with follow up from 1 April 1991 (the end of the Gulf war) to 31 July 2002. 51 721 Gulf war veterans and 50 755 service personnel matched for age, sex, rank, service, and level of fitness who were not deployed in the Gulf (the Era cohort). Incident cancers, identified on the NHS central register. There were 270 incident cancers among the Gulf cohort and 269 among the Era cohort (incidence rate ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.17). There was no excess in site specific cancers among the Gulf cohort. Adjustment for lifestyle factors (smoking and alcohol consumption) did not alter these results. In the Gulf cohort, risk of cancer was not related to multiple vaccinations or exposure to pesticides or depleted uranium during deployment. There is no current excess risk of cancer overall nor of site specific cancers in Gulf war veterans. Specific exposures during deployment have not resulted in a subsequent increased risk of cancer. The long latent period for cancer, however, necessitates the continued follow up of these cohorts.

Pollinosis and all-cause mortality among middle-aged and elderly Japanese: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Konishi, S; Ng, C F S; Stickley, A; Watanabe, C

2016-08-01

Having an allergic disease may have health implications beyond those more commonly associated with allergy given that previous epidemiological studies have suggested that both atopy and allergy are linked to mortality. More viable immune functioning among the elderly, as indicated by the presence of an allergic disease, might therefore be associated with differences in all-cause mortality. Using data from a Japanese cohort, this study examined whether having pollinosis (a form of allergic rhinitis) in a follow-up survey could predict all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Data came from the Komo-Ise cohort, which at its 1993 baseline recruited residents aged 40-69 years from two areas in Gunma prefecture, Japan. The current study used information on pollinosis that was obtained from the follow-up survey in 2000. Mortality and migration data were obtained throughout the follow-up period up to December 2008. Proportional hazard models were used to examine the relation between pollinosis and mortality. At the 2000 follow-up survey, 12% (1088 of 8796) of respondents reported that they had pollinosis symptoms in the past 12 months. During the 76 186 person-years of follow-up, 748 died from all causes. Among these, there were 37 external, 208 cardiovascular, 74 respiratory, and 329 neoplasm deaths. After adjusting for potential confounders, pollinosis was associated with significantly lower all-cause [hazard ratio 0.57 (95% confidence interval = 0.38-0.87)] and neoplasms mortality [hazard ratio 0.48 (95% confidence interval = 0.26-0.92)]. Having an allergic disease (pollinosis) at an older age may be indicative of more viable immune functioning and be protective against certain causes of death. Further research is needed to determine the possible mechanisms underlying the association between pollinosis and mortality. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The History of Stuttering by 7 Years of Age: Follow-Up of a Prospective Community Cohort

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kefalianos, Elaina; Onslow, Mark; Packman, Ann; Vogel, Adam; Pezic, Angela; Mensah, Fiona; Conway, Laura; Bavin, Edith; Block, Susan; Reilly, Sheena

2017-01-01

Purpose: For a community cohort of children confirmed to have stuttered by the age of 4 years, we report (a) the recovery rate from stuttering, (b) predictors of recovery, and (c) comorbidities at the age of 7 years. Method: This study was nested in the Early Language in Victoria Study. Predictors of stuttering recovery included child, family, and…

Childhood Weight Gain and Thyroid Autoimmunity at Age 60–64 Years: The 1946 British Birth Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Kuh, Diana; Pierce, Mary; Franklyn, Jayne A.

2013-01-01

Background: Complex bidirectional relationships have been described between body weight, thyroid function, and risk of thyroid disorders, including thyroid autoimmunity. We used a life-course approach to examine the potential association of childhood or adult body weight with the risk of thyroid autoimmunity and other thyroid disorders at age 60–64 years in a large population-based birth cohort study. Methods: In the UK Medical Research Council 1946 British Birth Cohort study, at age 60–64 years, 1277 women and 1185 men (78% of the target sample) responded to a postal questionnaire, which included questions on thyroid disease and thyroid medication. Circulating antithyroid peroxidase antibodies, free T4, and TSH concentrations were measured in 1057 women and 997 men at a subsequent clinic visit. Birth weight was recorded, and height and weight were measured at ages 2, 4, 6, 7, 11, 15 years and also repeatedly in adulthood. Results: At age 60–64 years, 10.9% of women (139 of 1277) and 2.3% of men (27 of 1185) reported they were taking T4, and 11.5% of women (122 of 1057) and 3.3% of men (33 of 997) had positive anti-TPO antibodies (>100 IU/mL), consistent with thyroid autoimmunity. Among women, both T4 use and positive anti-TPO antibodies at age 60–64 years were positively associated with childhood body weight, childhood overweight, and adult body mass index. Childhood weight gain between 0 and 14 years of age was positively associated with later T4 use (odds ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.03–1.42) and positive anti-TPO antibodies (1.21, 1.00–1.47). Women who were overweight or obese at age 14 years (127 of 972) had a higher risk of later positive anti-TPO antibodies (2.05, 1.12–3.76). In men and women without any thyroid disorders, serum free T4 concentrations were inversely associated with concurrent body mass index (P = .002). Conclusions: Childhood weight gain and childhood overweight conferred an increased susceptibility to later

Life Course Trajectories of Systolic Blood Pressure Using Longitudinal Data from Eight UK Cohorts

PubMed Central

Wills, Andrew K.; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Matthews, Fiona E.; Aihie Sayer, Avan; Bakra, Eleni; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Benzeval, Michaela; Brunner, Eric; Cooper, Rachel; Kivimaki, Mika; Kuh, Diana; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Hardy, Rebecca

2011-01-01

Background Much of our understanding of the age-related progression of systolic blood pressure (SBP) comes from cross-sectional data, which do not directly capture within-individual change. We estimated life course trajectories of SBP using longitudinal data from seven population-based cohorts and one predominantly white collar occupational cohort, each from the United Kingdom and with data covering different but overlapping age periods. Methods and Findings Data are from 30,372 individuals and comprise 102,583 SBP observations spanning from age 7 to 80+y. Multilevel models were fitted to each cohort. Four life course phases were evident in both sexes: a rapid increase in SBP coinciding with peak adolescent growth, a more gentle increase in early adulthood, a midlife acceleration beginning in the fourth decade, and a period of deceleration in late adulthood where increases in SBP slowed and SBP eventually declined. These phases were still present, although at lower levels, after adjusting for increases in body mass index though adulthood. The deceleration and decline in old age was less evident after excluding individuals who had taken antihypertensive medication. Compared to the population-based cohorts, the occupational cohort had a lower mean SBP, a shallower annual increase in midlife, and a later midlife acceleration. The maximum sex difference was found at age 26 (+8.2 mm Hg higher in men, 95% CI: 6.7, 9.8); women then experienced steeper rises and caught up by the seventh decade. Conclusions Our investigation shows a general pattern of SBP progression from childhood in the UK, and suggests possible differences in this pattern during adulthood between a general population and an occupational population. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21695075

Compare Complication of Classic versus Patent Hemostasis in Transradial Coronary Angiography

PubMed Central

Roghani, Farshad; Tajik, Mohammad Nasim; Khosravi, Alireza

2017-01-01

Background: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is multifactorial disease, in which thrombotic occlusion and calcification occur usually. New strategies have been made for diagnosis and treatment of CAD, such as transradial catheterization. Hemostasis could be done in two approaches: traditional and patent. Our aim is to find the best approach with lowest complication. Materials and Methods: In a comparative study, 120 patients were recruited and divided randomly into two subgroups, including traditional group (60 patients; 24 females, 36 males; mean age: 64.35 ± 10.56 years) and patent group (60 patients; 28 females, 32 males; mean age: 60.15 ± 8.92 years). All demographic data including age, gender, body mass index, and CAD-related risk factors (smoking, diabetes, hypertension) and technical data including the number of catheters, procedure duration, and hemostatic compression time and clinical outcomes (radial artery occlusion [RAO], hematoma, bleeding) were collected. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 16. Results: Our findings revealed that the incidence of RAO was significantly lower in patent groups compared with traditional group (P = 0.041). Furthermore, the difference incidence of RAO was higher in early occlusion compare with late one (P = 0.041). Moreover, there were significant relationship between some factors in patients of traditional group with occlusion (gender [P = 0.038], age [P = 0.031], diabetes mellitus [P = 0.043], hemostatic compression time [P = 0.036]) as well as in patent group (age [P = 0.009], hypertension [P = 0.035]). Conclusion: Our findings showed that RAO, especially type early is significantly lower in patent method compared classic method; and patent hemostasis is the safest method and good alternative for classical method. PMID:29387670

Compare Complication of Classic versus Patent Hemostasis in Transradial Coronary Angiography.

PubMed

Roghani, Farshad; Tajik, Mohammad Nasim; Khosravi, Alireza

2017-01-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is multifactorial disease, in which thrombotic occlusion and calcification occur usually. New strategies have been made for diagnosis and treatment of CAD, such as transradial catheterization. Hemostasis could be done in two approaches: traditional and patent. Our aim is to find the best approach with lowest complication. In a comparative study, 120 patients were recruited and divided randomly into two subgroups, including traditional group (60 patients; 24 females, 36 males; mean age: 64.35 ± 10.56 years) and patent group (60 patients; 28 females, 32 males; mean age: 60.15 ± 8.92 years). All demographic data including age, gender, body mass index, and CAD-related risk factors (smoking, diabetes, hypertension) and technical data including the number of catheters, procedure duration, and hemostatic compression time and clinical outcomes (radial artery occlusion [RAO], hematoma, bleeding) were collected. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 16. Our findings revealed that the incidence of RAO was significantly lower in patent groups compared with traditional group ( P = 0.041). Furthermore, the difference incidence of RAO was higher in early occlusion compare with late one ( P = 0.041). Moreover, there were significant relationship between some factors in patients of traditional group with occlusion (gender [ P = 0.038], age [ P = 0.031], diabetes mellitus [ P = 0.043], hemostatic compression time [ P = 0.036]) as well as in patent group (age [ P = 0.009], hypertension [ P = 0.035]). Our findings showed that RAO, especially type early is significantly lower in patent method compared classic method; and patent hemostasis is the safest method and good alternative for classical method.

Mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults (The ELSA and Bambui cohort ageing studies)

PubMed Central

Marmot, Michael G.; Demakakos, Panayotes; Vaz de Melo Mambrini, Juliana; Peixoto, Sérgio Viana; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda

2016-01-01

Background: The main aim of this study was to quantify and compare 6-year mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults. This study represents a rare opportunity to approach the subject in two different social and economic contexts. Methods: Data from the data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing (Brazil) were used. Deaths in both cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Risk factors considered in this study were baseline smoking, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Both age–sex adjusted hazard ratios and population attributable risks (PAR) of all-cause mortality and their 95% confidence intervals for the association between risk factors and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Participants were 3205 English and 1382 Brazilians aged 60 years and over. First, Brazilians showed much higher absolute risk of mortality than English and this finding was consistent in all age, independently of sex. Second, as a rule, hazard ratios for mortality to smoking, hypertension and diabetes showed more similarities than differences between these two populations. Third, there was strong difference among English and Brazilians on attributable deaths to hypertension. Conclusions: The findings indicate that, despite of being in more recent transitions, the attributable deaths to one or more risk factors was twofold among Brazilians relative to the English. These findings call attention for the challenge imposed to health systems to prevent and treat non-communicable diseases, particularly in populations with low socioeconomic level. PMID:26666869

Supportive Family Environments Ameliorate the Link Between Racial Discrimination and Epigenetic Aging: A Replication Across Two Longitudinal Cohorts.

PubMed

Brody, Gene H; Miller, Gregory E; Yu, Tianyi; Beach, Steven R H; Chen, Edith

2016-04-01

This study tested the hypothesis that supportive family environments during adolescence buffer exposure to racial discrimination, reducing its impact on biological weathering and its manifestation in cellular aging. Perceived racial discrimination, support in the family environment, and confounder variables were assessed for 3 consecutive years across adolescence in two independent cohorts of African American youth from rural Georgia. DNA was extracted from peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected during young adulthood. Patterns of methylation were used to index the epigenetic ages of these cells and the extent to which they differed from participants' chronological ages. Among youth in supportive family environments, exposure to higher levels of racial discrimination did not forecast greater epigenetic aging. Among youth in less supportive family environments, exposure to higher levels of racial discrimination did forecast greater epigenetic aging. The associations emerged independently of confounder variables, and the results were replicated across the two cohorts. © The Author(s) 2016.

Effect of maternal age on the risk of preterm birth: A large cohort study

PubMed Central

Monet, Barbara; Ducruet, Thierry; Chaillet, Nils; Audibert, Francois

2018-01-01

Background Maternal age at pregnancy is increasing worldwide as well as preterm birth. However, the association between prematurity and advanced maternal age remains controversial. Objective To evaluate the impact of maternal age on the occurrence of preterm birth after controlling for multiple known confounders in a large birth cohort. Study design Retrospective cohort study using data from the QUARISMA study, a large Canadian randomized controlled trial, which collected data from 184,000 births in 32 hospitals. Inclusion criteria were maternal age over 20 years. Exclusion criteria were multiple pregnancy, fetal malformation and intra-uterine fetal death. Five maternal age categories were defined and compared for maternal characteristics, gestational and obstetric complications, and risk factors for prematurity. Risk factors for preterm birth <37 weeks, either spontaneous or iatrogenic, were evaluated for different age groups using multivariate logistic regression. Results 165,282 births were included in the study. Chronic hypertension, assisted reproduction techniques, pre-gestational diabetes, invasive procedure in pregnancy, gestational diabetes and placenta praevia were linearly associated with increasing maternal age whereas hypertensive disorders of pregnancy followed a “U” shaped distribution according to maternal age. Crude rates of preterm birth before 37 weeks followed a “U” shaped curve with a nadir at 5.7% for the group of 30–34 years. In multivariate analysis, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of prematurity stratified by age group followed a “U” shaped distribution with an aOR of 1.08 (95%CI; 1.01–1.15) for 20–24 years, and 1.20 (95% CI; 1.06–1.36) for 40 years and older. Confounders found to have the greatest impact were placenta praevia, hypertensive complications, and maternal medical history. Conclusion Even after adjustment for confounders, advanced maternal age (40 years and over) was associated with preterm birth. A maternal

Tarnished Gold: Classical Music in America

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asia, Daniel

2010-01-01

A few articles have appeared recently regarding the subject of the health of classical music (or more broadly, the fine arts) in America. These include "Classical Music's New Golden Age," by Heather Mac Donald, in the "City Journal" and "The Decline of the Audience," by Terry Teachout, in "Commentary." These articles appeared around the time of…

Self-regulation and household routines at age three and obesity at age eleven: longitudinal analysis of the UK Millennium Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Anderson, Sarah E; Sacker, Amanda; Whitaker, Robert C; Kelly, Yvonne

2017-01-01

Objective To examine, in a population-based cohort of three-year-old children, the association between self-regulation and exposure to the household routines of regular bedtime, regular mealtime, and limits on watching television/video; and to determine whether self-regulation and these routines predict the risk of obesity at age 11. Methods Analyses included 10 955 children in the nationally-representative UK Millennium Cohort Study. When children were age 3, parents reported whether children had a regular bedtime and mealtime and the amount of television/video watched. Emotional and cognitive self-regulation at age 3 were assessed by parent-report with the Child Social Behaviour Questionnaire. Children’s height and weight were measured at age 11 and obesity was defined using the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) criteria. Results At age 3, 41% of children always had a regular bedtime, 47% always had a regular mealtime, and 23% were limited to ≤1 hour television/video daily. At age 11, 6.2% of children were obese. All three household routines were significantly associated with better emotional self-regulation, but not better cognitive self-regulation. In a multi-variable logistic regression model including emotional and cognitive self-regulation, all routines, and controlling for sociodemographic covariates, a 1 unit difference in emotional self-regulation at age 3 was associated with an OR (95% CI) for obesity of 1.38 (1.11, 1.71) at age 11, and inconsistent bedtimes with an OR (95% CI) for obesity of 1.87 (1.39, 2.51) at age 11. There was no evidence that emotional self-regulation mediated the relationship between regular bedtimes and later obesity. Cognitive self-regulation was not associated with later obesity. Conclusions Three-year-old children who had regular bedtimes, mealtimes, and limits on their television/video time had better emotional self-regulation. Lack of a regular bedtime and poorer emotional self-regulation at age 3 were independent

Mortality of first world war military personnel: comparison of two military cohorts.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Clement, Christine; Summers, Jennifer A; Bannister, John; Harper, Glyn

2014-12-16

To identify the impact of the first world war on the lifespan of participating military personnel (including in veterans who survived the war). Comparison of two cohorts of military personnel, followed to death. Military personnel leaving New Zealand to participate in the first world war. From a dataset of the New Zealand Expeditionary Forces, we randomly selected participants who embarked on troopships in 1914 and a comparison non-combat cohort who departed on troopships in late 1918 (350 in each group). Lifespan based on dates of birth and death from a range of sources (such as individual military files and an official database of birth and death records). A quarter of the 1914 cohort died during the war, with deaths from injury predominating (94%) over deaths from disease (6%). This cohort had a significantly shorter lifespan than the late 1918 "non-combat" cohort, with median ages of death being 65.9 versus 74.2, respectively (a difference of 8.3 years shown also in Kaplan-Meier survival curves, log rank P<0.001). The difference for the lifespan of veterans in the postwar period was more modest, with median ages of death being 72.6 versus 74.3, respectively (a difference of 1.7 years, log rank P=0.043). There was no evidence for differences between the cohorts in terms of occupational class, based on occupation at enlistment. Military personnel going to the first world war in 1914 from New Zealand lost around eight years of life (relative to a comparable military cohort). In the postwar period they continued to have an increased risk of premature death. © Wilson et al 2014.

Comparison of annual percentage change in breast cancer incidence rate between Taiwan and the United States-A smoothed Lexis diagram approach.

PubMed

Chien, Li-Hsin; Tseng, Tzu-Jui; Chen, Chung-Hsing; Jiang, Hsin-Fang; Tsai, Fang-Yu; Liu, Tsang-Wu; Hsiung, Chao A; Chang, I-Shou

2017-07-01

Recent studies compared the age effects and birth cohort effects on female invasive breast cancer (FIBC) incidence in Asian populations with those in the US white population. They were based on age-period-cohort model extrapolation and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). It is of interest to examine these results based on cohort-specific annual percentage change in rate (APCR) by age and without age-period-cohort model extrapolation. FIBC data (1991-2010) were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry and the U.S. SEER 9 registries. APCR based on smoothed Lexis diagrams were constructed to study the age, period, and cohort effects on FIBC incidence. The patterns of age-specific rates by birth cohort are similar between Taiwan and the US. Given any age-at-diagnosis group, cohort-specific rates increased overtime in Taiwan but not in the US; cohort-specific APCR by age decreased with birth year in both Taiwan and the US but was always positive and large in Taiwan. Given a diagnosis year, APCR decreased as birth year increased in Taiwan but not in the US. In Taiwan, the proportion of APCR attributable to cohort effect was substantial and that due to case ascertainment was becoming smaller. Although our study shows that incidence rates of FIBC have increased rapidly in Taiwan, thereby confirming previous results, the rate of increase over time is slowing. Continued monitoring of APCR and further investigation of the cause of the APCR decrease in Taiwan are warranted. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dental Caries in High-Risk School-Aged African-American Children in Alabama: A Six-Year Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Ghazal, Tariq S.; Levy, Steven M.; Childers, Noel K.; Broffitt, Barbara A.; Caplan, Daniel J; Warren, John J.; Cavanaugh, Joseph E.; Kolker, Justine

2016-01-01

Objectives To assess the prevalence and incidence of dental caries in school-aged African-American children who received semi-annual fluoride varnish applications. Methods A cohort of six-year-old high caries-risk African-American children (n=98) was recruited in Uniontown, Alabama and followed for six years. Oral examinations were done annually by three trained/calibrated dentists. Tooth surfaces with cavitated caries, missing due to caries and with filled surfaces were recorded, using WHO criteria. Also, as part of the study, children received periodic oral health instruction, fluoride varnish applications and referral to dentists starting at baseline. Results The person-level prevalence of dmfs/DMFS was: 61.2 percent at mean age 5.9 (n=98, mean dmfs/DMFS=11.6); 63.8 percent at age 6.7 (n=80, mean dmfs/DMFS=13.2); 70.6 percent at age 7.8 (n=68, mean dmfs/DMFS=14.2); 65.7 percent at age 8.8 (n=68, mean dmfs/DMFS=11.8); 55.6 percent at age 9.7 (n=63, mean dmfs/DMFS=8.8); 40.3 percent at age 10.7 (n=62, mean dmfs/DMFS=3.4); and 37.1 percent at age 11.7 (n=62, mean dmfs/DMFS=2.3). The six-year person-level incidence of dmfs/DMFS was 32.3 percent (mean dmfs/DMFS=1.6) from age 5.9 to age 11.7 (n=62). Conclusion In spite of the oral health education and fluoride varnish applications, there was substantial new dental caries in this high-risk sample. Additional studies evaluating risk factors for caries development are ongoing. PMID:27306247

Insulin resistance is associated with cognition among HIV-1-infected patients: the Hawaii Aging With HIV cohort.

PubMed

Valcour, Victor G; Sacktor, Ned C; Paul, Robert H; Watters, Michael R; Selnes, Ola A; Shiramizu, Bruce T; Williams, Andrew E; Shikuma, Cecilia M

2006-12-01

To determine if insulin resistance (IR) is associated with lower cognitive performance among HIV-1-infected adults and to determine if advanced age magnifies risk. Cross-sectional analysis within the Hawaii Aging With HIV Cohort. We calculated the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) among 145 cohort participants. Values were compared to concurrent neuropsychological test performance and cognitive diagnoses. Hypertension, body mass index (BMI), and non-Caucasian self-identity were directly related to insulin resistance (IR); however, age, CD4 lymphocyte count, and rates of treatment with HAART were not. In logistic regression analyses and stratifying cognition status on a 3-tiered scale (normal, minor cognitive motor disorder (MCMD), and HIV-associated dementia (HAD)), we identified an increased risk of meeting a higher diagnostic category as HOMA-IR increased (OR, 1.12; 95% CI: 1.003 to 1.242 per unit of HOMA-IR, P = 0.044). In linear regression models and among nondiabetic participants, an increasing degree of IR was associated with lower performance on neuropsychological summary scores. IR is associated with cognitive dysfunction in this contemporary HIV-1 cohort enriched with older individuals. Metabolic dysfunction may contribute to the multifactorial pathogenesis of cognitive impairment in the era of HAART.

Differences in genetic and environmental variation in adult BMI by sex, age, time period, and region: an individual-based pooled analysis of 40 twin cohorts.

PubMed

Silventoinen, Karri; Jelenkovic, Aline; Sund, Reijo; Yokoyama, Yoshie; Hur, Yoon-Mi; Cozen, Wendy; Hwang, Amie E; Mack, Thomas M; Honda, Chika; Inui, Fujio; Iwatani, Yoshinori; Watanabe, Mikio; Tomizawa, Rie; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H; Rissanen, Aila; Siribaddana, Sisira H; Hotopf, Matthew; Sumathipala, Athula; Rijsdijk, Fruhling; Tan, Qihua; Zhang, Dongfeng; Pang, Zengchang; Piirtola, Maarit; Aaltonen, Sari; Öncel, Sevgi Y; Aliev, Fazil; Rebato, Esther; Hjelmborg, Jacob B; Christensen, Kaare; Skytthe, Axel; Kyvik, Kirsten O; Silberg, Judy L; Eaves, Lindon J; Cutler, Tessa L; Ordoñana, Juan R; Sánchez-Romera, Juan F; Colodro-Conde, Lucia; Song, Yun-Mi; Yang, Sarah; Lee, Kayoung; Franz, Carol E; Kremen, William S; Lyons, Michael J; Busjahn, Andreas; Nelson, Tracy L; Whitfield, Keith E; Kandler, Christian; Jang, Kerry L; Gatz, Margaret; Butler, David A; Stazi, Maria A; Fagnani, Corrado; D'Ippolito, Cristina; Duncan, Glen E; Buchwald, Dedra; Martin, Nicholas G; Medland, Sarah E; Montgomery, Grant W; Jeong, Hoe-Uk; Swan, Gary E; Krasnow, Ruth; Magnusson, Patrik Ke; Pedersen, Nancy L; Dahl Aslan, Anna K; McAdams, Tom A; Eley, Thalia C; Gregory, Alice M; Tynelius, Per; Baker, Laura A; Tuvblad, Catherine; Bayasgalan, Gombojav; Narandalai, Danshiitsoodol; Spector, Timothy D; Mangino, Massimo; Lachance, Genevieve; Burt, S Alexandra; Klump, Kelly L; Harris, Jennifer R; Brandt, Ingunn; Nilsen, Thomas S; Krueger, Robert F; McGue, Matt; Pahlen, Shandell; Corley, Robin P; Huibregtse, Brooke M; Bartels, Meike; van Beijsterveldt, Catharina Em; Willemsen, Gonneke; Goldberg, Jack H; Rasmussen, Finn; Tarnoki, Adam D; Tarnoki, David L; Derom, Catherine A; Vlietinck, Robert F; Loos, Ruth Jf; Hopper, John L; Sung, Joohon; Maes, Hermine H; Turkheimer, Eric; Boomsma, Dorret I; Sørensen, Thorkild Ia; Kaprio, Jaakko

2017-08-01

Background: Genes and the environment contribute to variation in adult body mass index [BMI (in kg/m 2 )], but factors modifying these variance components are poorly understood. Objective: We analyzed genetic and environmental variation in BMI between men and women from young adulthood to old age from the 1940s to the 2000s and between cultural-geographic regions representing high (North America and Australia), moderate (Europe), and low (East Asia) prevalence of obesity. Design: We used genetic structural equation modeling to analyze BMI in twins ≥20 y of age from 40 cohorts representing 20 countries (140,379 complete twin pairs). Results: The heritability of BMI decreased from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.77, 0.78) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.75) in men and women 20-29 y of age to 0.57 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.60) and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.53, 0.65) in men 70-79 y of age and women 80 y of age, respectively. The relative influence of unique environmental factors correspondingly increased. Differences in the sets of genes affecting BMI in men and women increased from 20-29 to 60-69 y of age. Mean BMI and variances in BMI increased from the 1940s to the 2000s and were greatest in North America and Australia, followed by Europe and East Asia. However, heritability estimates were largely similar over measurement years and between regions. There was no evidence of environmental factors shared by co-twins affecting BMI. Conclusions: The heritability of BMI decreased and differences in the sets of genes affecting BMI in men and women increased from young adulthood to old age. The heritability of BMI was largely similar between cultural-geographic regions and measurement years, despite large differences in mean BMI and variances in BMI. Our results show a strong influence of genetic factors on BMI, especially in early adulthood, regardless of the obesity level in the population. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Epidemiology and genetic diversity of classic human astrovirus among hospitalized children with acute gastroenteritis in Uruguay.

PubMed

Lopez, Fernando; Lizasoain, Andrés; Victoria, Matías; Papalardo, Cecilia; Castro, Sebastian; Arreseigor, Edit; López, Patricia; Colina, Rodney

2017-10-01

Classic Human Astrovirus (Classic HAstV) are one of the most important causes of pediatric acute gastroenteritis (AGE), after rotaviruses and arguably caliciviruses. The aim of this study was to determine the molecular epidemiology of Classic HAstV from 175 clinical samples, being 153 stools and 22 vomits, collected from pediatric hospitalized patients with AGE in Salto city, Uruguay, from January 2011 to December 2012. Classic HAstV were detected and genotyped by using a qualitative Retro Transcription-Polimerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) directed to the Open Reading Frame-2 (ORF2) region C. Amplicons were sequenced and phylogenetic analyses were carried out in order to determine genotypes and lineages. Classic HAstV were detected in 18 out of 175 analyzed samples (10.3%) and 14 of them (78.0%) were successfully sequenced being 6 (42.8%) classified as HAstV-1 (1a lineage), 4 (28.6%) as HAstV-2 (2c lineage), and 4 (28.6%) as HAstV-3 (3c lineage). A higher detection of Classic HAstV infections was observed in autumn for both years of surveillance, and the majority of the positive cases were observed in 2011. The group of children between 2 and 5 years old presented the higher percentage of infections. To our knowledge, the present study represents the first report of astrovirus from acute gastroenteritis cases in Uruguay, evidencing its role as a relevant etiologic agent in severe cases of this disease. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Has actuarial aging “slowed” over the past 250 years? A comparison of small-scale subsistence populations and European cohorts

PubMed Central

Gurven, Michael; Fenelon, Andrew

2012-01-01

G.C. Williams’ 1957 hypothesis famously argues that higher age-independent, or “extrinsic”, mortality should select for faster rates of senescence. Long-lived species should therefore show relatively few deaths from extrinsic causes such as predation and starvation. Theoretical explorations and empirical tests of Williams’ hypothesis have flourished in the past decade but it has not yet been tested empirically among humans. We test Williams’ hypothesis using mortality data from subsistence populations and from historical cohorts from Sweden and England/Wales, and examine whether rates of actuarial aging declined over the past two centuries. We employ three aging measures: mortality rate doubling time (MRDT), Ricklef’s ω, and the slope of mortality hazard from ages sixty to seventy, m’60–70, and model mortality using both Weibull and Gompertz-Makeham hazard models. We find that (1) actuarial aging in subsistence societies is similar to that of early Europe, (2) actuarial senescence has slowed in later European cohorts, (3) reductions in extrinsic mortality associate with slower actuarial aging in longitudinal samples, and (4) men senesce more rapidly than women, especially in later cohorts. To interpret these results, we attempt to bridge population-based evolutionary analysis with individual-level proximate mechanisms. PMID:19220451