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Sample records for classifying tropical cyclones

  1. Tropical cyclone formation

    SciTech Connect

    Montgomery, M.T.; Farrell, B.F. )

    1993-01-15

    The physics of tropical cyclone formation is not well understood, and more is known about the mature hurricane than the formative mechanisms that produce it. It is believed part of the reason for this can be traced to insufficient upper-level atmospheric data. Recent observations suggest that tropical cyclones are initiated by asymmetric interactions associated with migratory upper-level potential vorticity disturbances and low-level disturbances. Favored theories of cyclones formation, however, focus on internal processes associated with cumulus convection and/or air-sea interaction. This work focuses on external mechanisms of cyclone formation and, using both a two- and three-dimensional moist geostrophic momentum model, investigates the role of upper-level potential vorticity disturbances on the formation process. A conceptual model of tropical cyclone formation is proposed, and implications of the theory are discussed. 71 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Classifying Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catto, Jennifer

    2015-04-01

    There is a wide variety of flavours of extratropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, with differing structures and lifecycles. Previous studies have classified these manually using upper level flow features or satellite data. In order to be able to evaluate climate models and understand how extratropical cyclones might change in the future, we need to be able to use an automated method to classify cyclones. Extratropical cyclones have been identified in the Southern Hemisphere from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset with a commonly used identification and tracking algorithm that employs 850hPa relative vorticity. A clustering method applied to large-scale fields from ERA-Interim at the time of cyclone genesis (when the cyclone is first identified), has been used to objectively classify these cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. This simple method is able to separate the cyclones into classes with quite different development mechanisms and lifecycle characteristics. Some of the classes seem to coincide with previous manual classifications on shorter timescales, showing their utility for climate model evaluation and climate change studies.

  3. Grey swan tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry

    2016-01-01

    We define `grey swan’ tropical cyclones as high-impact storms that would not be predicted based on history but may be foreseeable using physical knowledge together with historical data. Here we apply a climatological-hydrodynamic method to estimate grey swan tropical cyclone storm surge threat for three highly vulnerable coastal regions. We identify a potentially large risk in the Persian Gulf, where tropical cyclones have never been recorded, and larger-than-expected threats in Cairns, Australia, and Tampa, Florida. Grey swan tropical cyclones striking Tampa, Cairns and Dubai can generate storm surges of about 6 m, 5.7 m and 4 m, respectively, with estimated annual exceedance probabilities of about 1/10,000. With climate change, these probabilities can increase significantly over the twenty-first century (to 1/3,100-1/1,100 in the middle and 1/2,500-1/700 towards the end of the century for Tampa). Worse grey swan tropical cyclones, inducing surges exceeding 11 m in Tampa and 7 m in Dubai, are also revealed with non-negligible probabilities, especially towards the end of the century.

  4. Assessing Tropical Cyclone Damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Done, J.; Czajkowski, J.

    2012-12-01

    Landfalling tropical cyclones impact large coastal and inland areas causing direct damage due to winds, storm-surge flooding, tornadoes, and precipitation; as well as causing substantial indirect damage such as electrical outages and business interruption. The likely climate change impact of increased tropical cyclone intensity, combined with increases in exposure, bring the possibility of increased damage in the future. A considerable amount of research has focused on modeling economic damage due to tropical cyclones, and a series of indices have been developed to assess damages under climate change. We highlight a number of ways this research can be improved through a series of case study analyses. First, historical loss estimates are revisited to properly account for; time, impacted regions, the source of damage by type, and whether the damage was direct/indirect and insured/uninsured. Second, the drivers of loss from both the socio-economic and physical side are examined. A case is made to move beyond the use of maximum wind speed to more stable metrics and the use of other characteristics of the wind field such as direction, degree of gustiness, and duration is explored. A novel approach presented here is the potential to model losses directly as a function of climate variables such as sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases, and aerosols. This work is the first stage in the development of a tropical cyclone loss model to enable projections of losses under scenarios of both socio-economic change (such as population migration or altered policy) and physical change (such as shifts in tropical cyclone activity one from basin to another or within the same basin).

  5. Tropical Cyclone Gonu

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    You might expect to see a storm with near-perfect symmetry and a well-defined eye hovering over the warm waters of the Caribbean or in the South Pacific, but Tropical Cyclone Gonu showed up in an unusual place. On June 4, 2007, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image, Tropical Cyclone Gonu was approaching the northeastern shore of Oman, a region better known for hot desert conditions. Though rare, cyclones like Gonu are not unheard of in the northern Indian Ocean basin. Most cyclones that form in the region form over the Bay of Bengal, east of India. Those that take shape over the Arabian Sea, west of the Indian peninsula, tend to be small and fizzle out before coming ashore. Cyclone Gonu is a rare exception. As of June 4, 2007, the powerful storm had reached a dangerous Category Four status, and it was forecast to graze Oman's northeastern shore, following the Gulf of Oman. According to storm statistics maintained on Unisys Weather, the last storm of this size to form over the Arabian Sea was Cyclone 01A, which tracked northwest along the coast of India between May 21 and May 28, 2001. Unlike Gonu's forecasted track, Cyclone 01A never came ashore. MODIS acquired this photo-like image at 12:00 p.m. local time (9:00 UTC), a few hours after the Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Gonu's sustained winds to be over 240 kilometers per hour (145 miles per hour). The satellite image confirms that Gonu was a super-powerful cyclone. The storm has the hallmark tightly wound arms that spiral around a well-defined, circular eye. The eye is surrounded by a clear wall of towering clouds that cast shadows on the surrounding clouds. Called hot towers, these clouds are a sign of the powerful uplift that feeds the storm. The symmetrical spirals, clear eye, and towering clouds are all features regularly seen in satellite images of other particularly powerful cyclones, which are also known as typhoons or hurricanes when they form in other parts of the world. The high-resolution image provided above is at MODIS' full spatial resolution (level of detail) of 250 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response System provides this image at additional resolutions.

  6. Tropical cyclone genesis across palaeoclimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, J. H.; Brierley, C. M.

    2015-02-01

    Tropical cyclone genesis is investigated for the Pliocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene through analysis of five climate models. The genesis potential index is used to estimate this from large scale atmospheric properties. The mid-Pliocene and LGM characterise periods where carbon dioxide levels were higher and lower than pre-industrial respectively, while the mid-Holocene differed primarily in its orbital configuration. The number of tropical cyclones formed each year is found to be fairly consistent across the various palaeoclimates. Although there is some model uncertainty in the change of global annual tropical cyclone frequency, there are coherent changes in the spatial patterns of tropical cyclogenesis. During the Pliocene and LGM, changes in carbon dioxide led to sea surface temperature changes throughout the tropics, yet the potential intensity of tropical cyclones appears relatively insensitive to these variations. Changes in tropical cyclone genesis during the mid-Holocene are observed to be asymmetric about the Equator: genesis is reduced in the Northern Hemisphere, but enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere. This is clearly driven by the altered seasonal insolation. Nonetheless, the enhanced seasonality may have driven localised effects on tropical cyclone genesis, through changes to the strength of monsoons and shifting of the inter-tropical convergence zone. Trends in future tropical cyclone genesis are neither consistent between the five models studied, nor with the palaeoclimate results. It is not clear why this should be the case.

  7. Tropical Cyclone Indlala

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    On March 14, 2007, storm-weary Madagascar braced for its fourth land-falling tropical cyclone in as many months. Cyclone Indlala was hovering off the island's northeast coast when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this photo-like image at 1:40 p.m. local time (10:40 UTC). Just over a hundred kilometers offshore, the partially cloudy eye at the heart of the storm seems like a vast drain sucking in a disk of swirling clouds. According to reports from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued less than three hours after MODIS captured this image, Indlala had winds of 115 knots (132 miles per hour), with gusts up to 140 knots (161 mph). Wave heights were estimated to be 36 feet. At the time of the report, the storm was predicted to intensify through the subsequent 12-hour period, to turn slightly southwest, and to strike eastern Madagascar as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds up to 125 knots (144 mph), and gusts up to 150 knots (173 mph). According to Reuters AlertNet news service, Madagascar's emergency response resources were taxed to their limit in early March 2007 as a result of extensive flooding in the North, drought and food shortages in the South, and three previous hits from cyclones in the preceding few months: Bondo in December 2006, Clovis in January 2007, and Gamede in February.

  8. Tropical Cyclone Information System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, P. Peggy; Knosp, Brian W.; Vu, Quoc A.; Yi, Chao; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla M.

    2009-01-01

    The JPL Tropical Cyclone Infor ma tion System (TCIS) is a Web portal (http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov) that provides researchers with an extensive set of observed hurricane parameters together with large-scale and convection resolving model outputs. It provides a comprehensive set of high-resolution satellite (see figure), airborne, and in-situ observations in both image and data formats. Large-scale datasets depict the surrounding environmental parameters such as SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and aerosol loading. Model outputs and analysis tools are provided to evaluate model performance and compare observations from different platforms. The system pertains to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storm, the air-sea interaction processes, and the larger-scale environment as depicted by ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Currently, the TCIS is populated with satellite observations of all tropical cyclones observed globally during 2005. There is a plan to extend the database both forward in time till present as well as backward to 1998. The portal is powered by a MySQL database and an Apache/Tomcat Web server on a Linux system. The interactive graphic user interface is provided by Google Map.

  9. Cloudsat tropical cyclone database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tourville, Natalie D.

    CloudSat (CS), the first 94 GHz spaceborne cloud profiling radar (CPR), launched in 2006 to study the vertical distribution of clouds. Not only are CS observations revealing inner vertical cloud details of water and ice globally but CS overpasses of tropical cyclones (TC's) are providing a new and exciting opportunity to study the vertical structure of these storm systems. CS TC observations are providing first time vertical views of TC's and demonstrate a unique way to observe TC structure remotely from space. Since December 2009, CS has intersected every globally named TC (within 1000 km of storm center) for a total of 5,278 unique overpasses of tropical systems (disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon/cyclone (HTC)). In conjunction with the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), each CS TC overpass is processed into a data file containing observational data from the afternoon constellation of satellites (A-TRAIN), Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Model (NOGAPS), European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model and best track storm data. This study will describe the components and statistics of the CS TC database, present case studies of CS TC overpasses with complementary A-TRAIN observations and compare average reflectivity stratifications of TC's across different atmospheric regimes (wind shear, SST, latitude, maximum wind speed and basin). Average reflectivity stratifications reveal that characteristics in each basin vary from year to year and are dependent upon eye overpasses of HTC strength storms and ENSO phase. West Pacific (WPAC) basin storms are generally larger in size (horizontally and vertically) and have greater values of reflectivity at a predefined height than all other basins. Storm structure at higher latitudes expands horizontally. Higher vertical wind shear (≥ 9.5 m/s) reduces cloud top height (CTH) and the intensity of precipitation cores, especially in HTC strength storms. Average zero and ten dBZ height thresholds confirm WPAC storms loft precipitation sized particles higher into the atmosphere than in other basins. Two CS eye overpasses (32 hours apart) of a weakening Typhoon Nida in 2009 reveal the collapse of precipitation cores, warm core anomaly and upper tropospheric ice water content (IWC) under steady moderate shear conditions.

  10. Black Swan Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.

    2012-12-01

    Virtually all assessments of tropical cyclone risk are based on historical records, which are limited to a few hundred years at most. Yet stronger TCs may occur in the future and at places that have not been affected historically. Such events lie outside the realm of historically based expectations and may have extreme impacts. Their occurrences are also often made explainable after the fact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). We nickname such potential future TCs, characterized by rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability, "black swans" (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007). As, by definition, black swan TCs have yet to happen, statistical methods that solely rely on historical track data cannot predict their occurrence. Global climate models lack the capability to predict intense storms, even with a resolution as high as 14 km (Emanuel et al. 2010). Also, most dynamic downscaling methods (e.g., Bender et al. 2010) are still limited in horizontal resolution and are too expensive to implement to generate enough events to include rare ones. In this study, we apply a simpler statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to simulate large numbers of synthetic storms under a given (observed or projected) climate condition. The method has been shown to generate realistic extremes in various basins (Emanuel et al. 2008 and 2010). We also apply a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC; Luettich et al. 1992) to simulate the storm surges generated by these storms. We then search for black swan TCs, in terms of the joint wind and surge damage potential, in the generated large databases. Heavy rainfall is another important TC hazard and will be considered in a future study. We focus on three areas: Tampa Bay in the U.S., the Persian Gulf, and Darwin in Australia. Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge as it is surrounded by shallow water and low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. High surges are generated by storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics in our synthetic database, although no large surge has been recorded historically as only one moderate storm passed by the area. Tampa black swans are identified as those that move northward parallel to the west Florida coast with high intensities and resonant with the Florida-shelf edge waves to generate extreme surges up to 10 m in Tampa Bay. The Arabian Sea area has sea surface temperatures warm enough to support the development of severe TCs, but TC development has been limited by low humidity and high wind shear, and only one recorded TC (super cyclonic storm Gonu in 2007) moved close to the Persian Gulf, making landfall in Oman and Iran. Our analysis shows that black swan TCs can originate within the Persian Gulf and make landfall with high intensities in populous places; extreme surges over 9 m for Abu Dubai and Doha and over 7 m for Dubai are possible. Darwin experienced immense devastation from Cyclone Tracy of 1974, but the damage was mainly due to the strong winds (the surge was only about 1.6 m). Our analysis includes extremely intense black swan TCs that make landfall just south of Darwin, generating surges above 10 m; these results may prompt the city to reconsider its TC risk. We are currently analyzing the join probability of the extreme wind and surge of these black swan TCs to more clearly assess their full damage potentials.

  11. Objective classification of historical tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chenoweth, Michael

    2007-03-01

    Preinstrumental records of historical tropical cyclone activity require objective methods for accurately categorizing tropical cyclone intensity. Here wind force terms and damage reports from newspaper accounts in the Lesser Antilles and Jamaica for the period 1795-1879 are compared with wind speed estimates calculated from barometric pressure data. A total of 95 separate barometric pressure readings and colocated simultaneous wind force descriptors and wind-induced damage reports are compared. The wind speed estimates from barometric pressure data are taken as the most reliable and serve as a standard to compare against other data. Wind-induced damage reports are used to produce an estimated wind speed range using a modified Fujita scale. Wind force terms are compared with the barometric pressure data to determine if a gale, as used in the contemporary newspapers, is consistent with the modern definition of a gale. Results indicate that the modern definition of a gale (the threshold point separating the classification of a tropical depression from a tropical storm) is equivalent to that in contemporary newspaper accounts. Barometric pressure values are consistent with both reported wind force terms and wind damage on land when the location, speed and direction of movement of the tropical cyclone are determined. Damage reports and derived wind force estimates are consistent with other published results. Biases in ships' logbooks are confirmed and wind force terms of gale strength or greater are identified. These results offer a bridge between the earlier noninstrumental records of tropical cyclones and modern records thereby offering a method of consistently classifying storms in the Caribbean region into tropical depressions, tropical storms, nonmajor and major hurricanes.

  12. APR-2 Tropical Cyclone Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durden, S. L.; Tanelli, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Second Generation Airborne Precipitation Radar (APR-2) participated in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in August and September of 2010, collecting a large volume of data in several tropical systems, including Hurricanes Earl and Karl. Additional measurements of tropical cyclone have been made by APR-2 in experiments prior to GRIP (namely, CAMEX-4, NAMMA, TC4); Table 1 lists all the APR-2 tropical cyclone observations. The APR-2 observations consist of the vertical structure of rain reflectivity at 13.4 and 35.6 GHz, and at both co-polarization and crosspolarization, as well as vertical Doppler measurements and crosswind measurements. APR-2 normally flies on the NASA DC-8 aircraft, as in GRIP, collecting data with a downward looking, cross-track scanning geometry. The scan limits are 25 degrees on either side of the aircraft, resulting in a roughly 10-km swath, depending on the aircraft altitude. Details of the APR-2 observation geometry and performance can be found in Sadowy et al. (2003).The multiparameter nature of the APR-2 measurements makes the collection of tropical cyclone measurements valuable for detailed studies of the processes, microphysics and dynamics of tropical cyclones, as well as weaker systems that are associated with tropical cyclone formation. In this paper, we give a brief overview of how the APR-2 data are processed. We also discuss use of the APR-2 cross-track winds to estimate various quantities of interest in in studies of storm intensification. Finally, we show examples of the standard products and derived information.

  13. Fluid Mechanics of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lighthill, James, Sir

    Typhoons in the northwest Pacific and hurricanes in the northeast Atlantic are particular instances of a global phenomenon with frequently disastrous consequences known as the Tropical Cyclone (TC). This is an intense cyclone, generated over a tropical ocean with kinetic energy 1018 J or more, which extends over several hundred kilometres and yet is above all characterized by its calm central region: ``the eye of the storm''. In a TC (not, of course, to be confused with such completely different phenomena as tornadoes) both the energy input and its dissipation mainly occur within that boundary layer between air and ocean which, at high TC wind speeds of 50-60 m/s, comprises essentially ``a third fluid'': ocean spray. Afterwards, as a TC reaches land, disastrous effects of several different kinds may occur, and this paper outlines how fluid mechanics contributes towards worldwide struggles to reduce the human impact of TC disasters.

  14. Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research

    PubMed Central

    Marler, Thomas E

    2015-01-01

    Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community. PMID:26480001

  15. Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research.

    PubMed

    Marler, Thomas E

    2015-01-01

    Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community. PMID:26480001

  16. Global trends in tropical cyclone risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peduzzi, P.; Chatenoux, B.; Dao, H.; de Bono, A.; Herold, C.; Kossin, J.; Mouton, F.; Nordbeck, O.

    2012-04-01

    The impact of tropical cyclones on humans depends on the number of people exposed and their vulnerability, as well as the frequency and intensity of storms. How will the cumulative effects of climate change, demography and vulnerability affect risk? Conventionally, reports assessing tropical cyclone risk trends are based on reported losses, but these figures are biased by improvements to information access. Here we present a new methodology based on thousands of physically observed events and related contextual parameters. We show that mortality risk depends on tropical cyclone intensity, exposure, levels of poverty and governance. Despite the projected reduction in the frequency of tropical cyclones, projected increases in both demographic pressure and tropical cyclone intensity over the next 20 years can be expected to greatly increase the number of people exposed per year and exacerbate disaster risk, despite potential progression in development and governance.

  17. How can tropical cyclones survive?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smedman, Ann-Sofi

    2013-04-01

    How can tropical cyclones survive? It is important for understanding the development of tropical cyclones to be able to quantify the exchange of enthalpy and momentum between air and water. Air-sea fluxes are often formulated as drag CD and enthalpy CK exchange coefficients. Emanuel, 1986, derived an expression for potential intensity that depends on local environment parameters and is proportional to the ratio of enthalpy and drag coefficients. This ratio should be larger than 0.75 for a cyclone to develop. There are no direct surface measurements of CK/ CD under hurricane conditions and extrapolation from most open-ocean measurements at 25 m/s gives values of CK/ CD< 0.75 and in that case no cyclone could survive and Emanuel's theory must be wrong. However there are measurements of CK taken over the Baltic Sea and Lake Ontario showing increasing values of CK up to 2.5 for wind speeds around 12 m/s. If this can be implemented for hurricane conditions the ratio CK/ CD>0.75 is in accordance with Emanuel's prediction. The high CK values are observed during situations when there is a regime shift of the structure of turbulence in the boundary layer. From spectral analysis it was found that as the boundary layer approaches neutral stratification, smaller-scale eddies become increasingly important in the turbulent transport of humidity and sensible heat and thus enhance the exchange coefficient CK. This turbulence regime is called the UVCN regime and require high wind speed, small temperature difference between air and water, sufficiently strong wind gradients and growing sea condition ( Smedman et al., 2007, Sahlee et al., 2008). What is the difference between world oceans and enclosed seas? The answer is the waves. The wave field over the open oceans is swell dominated but in enclosed seas and coastal areas swell is restricted mainly to low wind speed conditions, and swell is short lived because of short distances to the shores. When swell is present the MABL will be dominated by large eddies of zi size creating weak gradients of wind, temperature and humidity and thus small scale eddies cannot be formed leading to reduced CK-values. However, during hurricane condition the waves are expected to be young, stratification is close to neutral and gradients are sufficiently large to generate UVCN condition and thus increased CK values. References: K. A. Emanuel, 1986: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones, part I: Steady-state maintenance, J. Atmos. Sci., 43,585-604 E. Sahlee et al., 2008: Reevaluation of bulk exchange coefficient for humiditu at sea during unstable and neutral conditions, DOI:10.1175/2007JPO3754.1 A. Smedman, 2007: Heat/mass transfer in the slightly unstable atmospheric surface layer,Quart. J. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 37-51

  18. LCSs in tropical cyclone genesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutherford, B.; Montgomery, M. T.

    2011-12-01

    The formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic most often occurs at the intersection of the wave trough axis of a westward propagating African easterly wave and the wave critical latitude. Viewed in a moving reference frame with the wave, a cat's eye region of cyclonic recirculation can be seen in streamlines prior to genesis. The cat's eye recirculation region has little strain deformation and its center serves as the focal point for aggregation of convectively generated vertical vorticity. Air inside the cat's eye is repeatedly moistened by convection and is protected from the lateral intrusion of dry air. Since the flow is inherently time-dependent, we contrast the time-dependent structures with Eulerian structures of the wave-relative frame. Time-dependence complicates the kinematic structure of the recirculation region as air masses from the outer environment are allowed to interact with the interior of the cat's eye. LCSs show different boundaries of the cat's eye than the streamlines in the wave-relative frame. These LCSs are particularly important for showing the pathways of air masses that interact with the developing vortex, as moist air promotes development by supporting deep convection, while interaction with dry air impedes development. We primarily use FTLEs to locate the LCSs, and show the role of LCSs in both developing and non-developing storms. In addition, we discuss how the vertical coherence of LCSs is important for resisting the effects of vertical wind shear.

  19. Tropical Cyclone Nargis: 2008 - Duration: 45 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    This new animation, developed with the help of NASA's Pleiades supercomputer, illustrates how tropical cyclone Nargis formed in the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal over several days in late April 2008...

  20. Raindrop Size Distribution Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tokay, Ali; Bashor, Paul G.; Habib, Emad; Kasparis, Takis

    2008-01-01

    Characteristics of the raindrop size distribution in seven tropical cyclones have been studied through impact-type disdrometer measurements at three different sites during the 2004-06 Atlantic hurricane seasons. One of the cyclones has been observed at two different sites. High concentrations of small and/or midsize drops were observed in the presence or absence of large drops. Even in the presence of large drops, the maximum drop diameter rarely exceeded 4 mm. These characteristics of raindrop size distribution were observed in all stages of tropical cyclones, unless the storm was in the extratropical stage where the tropical cyclone and a midlatitude frontal system had merged. The presence of relatively high concentrations of large drops in extratropical cyclones resembled the size distribution in continental thunderstorms. The integral rain parameters of drop concentration, liquid water content, and rain rate at fixed reflectivity were therefore lower in extratropical cyclones than in tropical cyclones. In tropical cyclones, at a disdrometercalculated reflectivity of 40 dBZ, the number concentration was 700 plus or minus 100 drops m(sup -3), while the liquid water content and rain rate were 0.90 plus or minus 0.05 g m(sup -3) and 18.5 plus or minus 0.5 mm h(sup -1), respectively. The mean mass diameter, on the other hand, was 1.67 plus or minus 0.3 mm. The comparison of raindrop size distributions between Atlantic tropical cyclones and storms that occurred in the central tropical Pacific island of Roi-Namur revealed that the number density is slightly shifted toward smaller drops, resulting in higher-integral rain parameters and lower mean mass and maximum drop diameters at the latter site. Considering parameterization of the raindrop size distribution in tropical cyclones, characteristics of the normalized gamma distribution parameters were examined with respect to reflectivity. The mean mass diameter increased rapidly with reflectivity, while the normalized intercept parameter had an increasing trend with reflectivity. The shape parameter, on the other hand, decreased in a reflectivity range from 10 to 20 dBZ and remained steady at higher reflectivities. Considering the repeatability of the characteristics of the raindrop size distribution, a second impact disdrometer that was located 5.3 km away from the primary site in Wallops Island, Virginia, had similar size spectra in selected tropical cyclones.

  1. DETAIL OF CYCLONE CLASSIFIER, WITH MARCY NO. 86 BALL MILL ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    DETAIL OF CYCLONE CLASSIFIER, WITH MARCY NO. 86 BALL MILL BELOW AND BEHIND IT. STRAIGHT HORIZONTAL PIPE IS SLIME FEED FROM ROD MILL. PIPE OUT TOP OF CYCLONE AND CURVING AT LOWER RIGHT CARRIED FINELY GROUND SLIME TO FLOTATION CONDITIONER TANK. PIPE NOT VISIBLE OUT BOTTOM OF CYCLONE CONVEYED COARSER SLIME TO BALL MILL. - Shenandoah-Dives Mill, 135 County Road 2, Silverton, San Juan County, CO

  2. Climatological Variability of Intense Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landsea, Christopher William

    The variability of intense tropical cyclone activity is analyzed via three separate perspectives. In the first, a climatology of intense Atlantic hurricanes is developed after taking into account a small overestimation of storm strength in the early years of aircraft reconnaissance. In the second, seasonal numbers of intense Atlantic hurricanes are known to be strongly associated with concurrent monsoon rains over West African Sahel. This relationship is hypothesized to be caused by changes in the Atlantic upper tropospheric flow and by alterations in the structure of African easterly waves. Lastly, tropical cyclone variability throughout the Northern Hemisphere ie evaluated with respect to Northern Hemispheric surface temperatures. Currently, no systematic relationship can be found for other year-to-year temperature changes or multi-decadal temperature differences versus tropical cyclone frequency, intensity or duration.

  3. Global view of the upper level outflow patterns associated with tropical cyclone intensity changes during FGGE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, L.; Gray, W. M.

    1985-01-01

    The characteristics of the upper tropospheric outflow patterns which occur with tropical cyclone intensification and weakening over all of the global tropical cyclone basins during the year long period of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) are discussed. By intensification is meant the change in the tropical cyclone's maximum wind or central pressure, not the change of the cyclone's outer 1 to 3 deg radius mean wind which we classify as cyclone strength. All the 80 tropical cyclones which existed during the FGGE year are studied. Two-hundred mb wind fields are derived from the analysis of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) which makes extensive use of upper tropospheric satellite and aircraft winds. Corresponding satellite cloud pictures from the polar orbiting U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and other supplementary polar and geostationary satellite data are also used.

  4. Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, J. H.; Brierley, C. M.

    2015-10-01

    The favourability of the mid-Pliocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene for tropical cyclone formation is investigated in five climate models. This is measured by a genesis potential index, derived from large-scale atmospheric properties known to be related to storm formation. The mid-Pliocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were periods where carbon dioxide levels were higher and lower than preindustrial levels respectively, while the mid-Holocene differed primarily in its orbital configuration. The cumulative global genesis potential is found to be fairly invariant across the palaeoclimates in the multi-model mean. Despite this all ensemble members agree on coherent responses in the spatial patterns of genesis potential change. During the mid-Pliocene and LGM, changes in carbon dioxide led to sea surface temperature changes throughout the tropics, yet the potential intensity (a measure associated with maximum tropical cyclone strength) is calculated to be relatively insensitive to these changes. Changes in tropical cyclone genesis potential during the mid-Holocene are found to be asymmetric about the Equator: being reduced in the Northern Hemisphere but enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere. This is clearly driven by the altered seasonal insolation. Nonetheless, the enhanced seasonality drove localised changes in genesis potential, by altering the strength of monsoons and shifting the intertropical convergence zone. Trends in future tropical cyclone genesis potential are consistent neither between the five models studied nor with the palaeoclimate results. It is not clear why this should be the case.

  5. Citizen scientists analyzing tropical cyclone intensities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    2012-10-01

    A new crowd sourcing project called CycloneCenter enables the public to analyze historical global tropical cyclone (TC) intensities. The primary goal of CycloneCenter, which launched in mid-September, is to resolve discrepancies in the recent global TC record arising principally from inconsistent development of tropical cyclone intensity data. The historical TC record is composed of data sets called "best tracks," which contain a forecast agency's best assessment of TC tracks and intensities. Best track data have improved in quality since the beginning of the geostationary satellite era in the 1960s (because TCs could no longer disappear from sight). However, a global compilation of best track data (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)) has brought to light large interagency differences between some TC best track intensities, even in the recent past [Knapp et al., 2010Knapp et al., 2010]. For example, maximum wind speed estimates for Tropical Cyclone Gay (1989) differed by as much as 70 knots as it was tracked by three different agencies.

  6. Nuclear power plant risk from tropical cyclones

    SciTech Connect

    Gilmore, T.F. )

    1991-01-01

    Tropical cyclones are considered to have a potential for contributing to the overall core-melt frequency at Turkey Point. A tropical cyclone is known to have the four main hazards associated with it: wind, tidal surge, wind-generated missiles, and precipitation. To understand the contribution to overall core-melt risk at Turkey Point, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of these hazards and their relative importance. The results are bounded by the hurricane surge scenario, where the frequency of core melt is equal to the frequency of the surge reaching 19 ft NGVD (National Geographic Vertical Datum). This could be mitigated by potential recovery actions for the tropical cyclone scenario. The probability of the storm surge reaching 19 ft NVGD is estimated to be 1 x 10{sup {minus}4}. The data associated with the tropical cyclones as discussed in detail in the body of this paper are lacking in quantity and quality. By taking the conservative approach in creating the wind/frequency, wind/surge, and surge/frequency relationships, the conclusion that the results are worst case is reasonable. With this in mind, it is logical to conclude that the value of further hazard analysis to narrow down the built-in conservative margin using the existing data and technology is doubtful. Thus, a recovery approach to driving the risk level down is the most pragmatic step to be taken.

  7. Reanalyzing Tropical Cyclone Intensities with Citizen Scientists

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schreck, C. J.; Hennon, C. C.; Knapp, K.; Stevens, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are among the most destructive weather phenomena. Whenever possible, the intensities of these storms have been determined from in situ data or aircraft reconnaissance. More often, however, they are estimated subjectively from satellite data using the Dvorak technique. Heterogeneities are introduced into the historical record with the evolution of operational procedures, personnel, and observing platforms. In some cases, multiple agencies even arrive at different estimates for the same storm. These uncertainties impede our ability to identify the relationship between tropical cyclone intensities and climate change. NOAA's NCDC has produced a 30-year (1979-2008) homogeneous dataset (HURSAT) of tropical cyclone imagery from geostationary satellites. This dataset has the potential to address some of the uncertainties in the recent tropical cyclone record. However, it would take nearly 40 years for a trained expert, working nonstop, to apply the Dvorak technique to all 200,000 images. Harnessing the power of thousands of Citizen Scientists, the same task can be completed in a matter of months. This presentation will explain how the Dvorak technique was adapted for Citizen Scientists, and how their skill will be evaluated relative to the operational analyses by trained experts.

  8. A tropical cyclone application for virtual globes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joseph Turk, F.; Hawkins, Jeff; Richardson, Kim; Surratt, Mindy

    2011-01-01

    Within the past ten years, a wide variety of publicly available environmental satellite-based data have become available to users and gained popular exposure in meteorological applications. For example, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has maintained a well accepted web-based tropical cyclone (TC) website (NRL TC-Web) with a diverse selection of environmental satellite imagery and products covering worldwide tropical cyclones extending back to 1997. The rapid development of virtual globe technologies provides for an effective framework to efficiently demonstrate meteorological and oceanographic concepts to not only specialized weather forecasters but also to students and the general public. With their emphasis upon geolocated data, virtual globes represent the next evolution beyond the traditional web browser by allowing one to define how, where, and when various data are displayed and dynamically updated. In this article, we describe a virtual globe implementation of the NRL TC-Web satellite data processing system. The resulting NRL Tropical Cyclones on Earth (TC-Earth) application is designed to exploit the capabilities of virtual globe technology to facilitate the display, animation, and layering of multiple environmental satellite imaging and sounding sensors for effective visualization of tropical cyclone evolution. As with the NRL TC-Web, the TC-Earth application is a dynamic, realtime application, driven by the locations of active and historical tropical cyclones. TC-Earth has a simple interface that is designed around a series of placemarks that follow the storm track history. The position coordinates along the storm track are used to map-register imagery and subset other types of information, allowing the user a wide range of freedom to choose data types, overlay combinations, and animations with a minimum number of clicks. TC-Earth enables the user to quickly select and navigate to the storm of interest from the multiple TCs active at anytime around the world or to peruse data from archived storms.

  9. Model finds bigger, stronger tropical cyclones with warming seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2014-03-01

    In the wake of powerful tropical cyclones such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina and Typhoon Haiyan, questions about the likely effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity are on the public's mind. The interactions between global warming and cyclone activity, however, are complex, with rising sea surface temperatures, changing energy distributions, and altered atmospheric dynamics all having some effect.

  10. Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

  11. Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

  12. Are tropical cyclones possible over Titan's polar seas?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokano, Tetsuya

    2013-04-01

    While extratropical cyclones cannot be expected in Titan's barotropic troposphere, tropical cyclones which gain their energy from the latent heat of sea evaporation cannot be entirely dismissed over Titan's polar hydrocarbon seas. The most essential condition for the genesis of tropical cyclones on Titan is a methane-rich composition of the polar seas. The most likely season for Titan's hypothetical tropical cyclones is around the northern summer solstice when the sea surface gets warmer and the relative vorticity of the near-surface air increases by seasonal convergence and equatorial wave activity. A tropical cyclone would manifest itself as an anti-clockwise swirling vortex right over one of the northern seas (Kraken Mare, Ligeia Mare, Punga Mare) and increase the surface wind over the seas by an order of magnitude. On the other hand, tropical cyclones are unlikely to emerge over Titan's few tropical lakes for dynamic reasons such as negligible Coriolis parameter and large vertical wind shear.

  13. Tropical Cyclones and the Carbon Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmerman, N. L.; Emanuel, K.

    2010-12-01

    The relationship between tropical cyclones and the carbon cycle poses an interesting question: tropical surface waters are generally quite warm and poor in nutrients, but the mixing in tropical cyclones entrains potentially large amounts of cold, nutrient-rich water. As the cold anomaly warms, there is a tendency toward over-saturation of carbon dioxide, and thus a net outgassing from the ocean to the atmosphere, but because nutrients are mixed into the photic zone, there is a simultaneous phytoplankton bloom which removes carbon from the mixed layer. The amount of carbon taken up into biota by the induced biological activity can in some cases create a net undersaturation of carbon dioxide in spite of the warming of entrained cold water, and therefore cause a net ingassing of carbon in the wake of a tropical cyclone. This is, however, only a short-term effect. Phytoplankton have a short life cycle, and the detritus they leave behind sinks and remineralizes; that which remineralizes below the climatological mixed layer represents a long-term sink of carbon from the atmosphere to the mixed layer, but the remainder will quickly return to the atmosphere. Both the warming of the mixed layer and the induced phytoplankton bloom are easily observable, but neither the sign nor the magnitude of the net effect is intuitive. To illuminate the question, a simple one-dimensional model is formulated which simulates the behavior of the upper few hundred meters of the ocean in response to tropical cyclone-induced mixing. Phytoplankton (and its remains), Nitrate, and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon are tracked, and the model is both initialized and forced with the best possible approximation to real chemical concentrations, winds, and heat fluxes, and the effect of the storm is estimated by comparing model behavior with the storm included and with the storm removed from observations. It is shown that the model performs acceptably well compared to such observations as exist. The model is then used to estimate the net flux of carbon between the deep ocean and the atmosphere for a large number of tropical cyclones around the world over the period 1999-2007. It is found that while in a few cases there is a large flux of carbon from the atmosphere to the deep ocean due biological sinking, for a large majority of storms the effect is quite small. For storms to cause a large carbon sink, they must be rather strong, and they must pass over a region of ocean with a both shallow nutricline and a relatively low stratification. While Typhoon Chanchu, which passed through the South China Sea in 2006, caused a large and well-studied sink of carbon that gave some initial cause for optimism that tropical cyclones might in general cause a similar effect, it now appears that such events are both too infrequent and cover too small an area to be a critical part of the carbon cycle in the current climate. It is reasoned that this may not necessarily be the case for previous climates with many more and stronger tropical cyclones, e.g. the early Pliocene.

  14. Impact Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Hud Hud on Coastal Region of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vivek, G.; Srinivasa Kumar, T.

    2015-10-01

    Tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low pressure center, strong winds, and a spiral arrangements of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. Tropical cyclones typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. On 6th October 2014 Hud Hud originates from a low pressure system that formed under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation in the Andaman Sea. On 9th October 2014 the IMD department classified the Hud Hud as a very severe cyclonic storm on IMD scale and category 4 on Staffir-Simpson scale. The cyclone hit the coast of Visakhapatnam on 12th October 2014 at wind speed of 175 km/h which caused extensive damage to the city and the neighbouring districts. The damage caused by Cyclone Hud Hud not only changed the landscape of the port city, but also made it the first city in the country to be directly hit by a cyclone since 1891 as per the records of the IMD. The remote sensing technique used here is NDVI. NDVI will separate vegetation and non-vegetation part. The NDVI will be classified in ERDAS and calculated the area using ARCGIS. The satellite data of 4th October 2014 show s before the cyclone, 14th October 2014 shows after the cyclone and 7th December 2014 after two month of cyclone.

  15. Cyclone Center: Using Crowdsourcing to Determine Tropical Cyclone Intensity (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hennon, C. C.; Knapp, K. R.; Schreck, C. J.; Stevens, S. E.; Kossin, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    The strength of tropical cyclones (TCs) is traditionally determined using the sustained maximum wind speed. Because TCs develop and spend most of their lifetime over tropical oceans, it is rare to directly observe a storm well enough to determine its strength accurately. The Dvorak technique was developed in the 1970s and 1980s to address this problem. By determining a number of cloud and structural characteristics from satellite images, a forecaster could now arrive at a reasonable maximum sustained wind without direct observations. However, the Dvorak technique by nature is subjective and it has been shown that trained experts frequently disagree on storm intensities. Furthermore, the application of the rules and constraints of the process has diverged with time across different forecast centers. This has led in several cases to severe disagreements in storm intensities when two or more forecast centers track the same TC. The accumulation of these differences has caused heterogeneous trends in TC intensity to arise at decadal time scales. A global reanalysis of TC intensity is required to resolve these discrepancies, but such an undertaking is unrealistic. Cyclone Center, an Internet crowd sourcing site for TCs, was created to resolve differences in TC intensities and produce a consistent 32-year (1978-2009) record of it. By using a homogeneous satellite dataset (HURSAT) and adapting the Dvorak technique into a set of three or four simple questions, laypersons perform the actions of the expert. User responses are converted into 3-hourly storm intensities. To capitalize on the crowd sourcing approach, at least 10 different users are shown the same image; this allows critical data such as cloud pattern uncertainties and storm metadata (e.g. eye size, center location, cloud pattern) to be collected. Preliminary analyses show that our citizen scientists many times outperform computer classifications in pattern matching and exhibit low bias and mean error when compared to a 'ground truth' set of storms (sampled with aircraft reconnaissance data). However, the intensity data can be noisy; we believe that further refinements in the statistical processing of user responses and the calculation of intensities using cloud top temperature should mitigate this concern and lead to lower errors. Typhoon Ivan (1997) is one of several hundred tropical cyclones that citizen scientists are analyzing

  16. A Conceptual Model for Tropical Cyclone Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.

    2014-12-01

    The role of cumulus congestus (shallow and congestus convection) in tropical cyclone (TC) formation is examined in a high-resolution simulation of Tropical Cyclone Fay (2008). It is found that cumulus congestus plays a dominant role in moistening the lower to middle troposphere and spinning up the near-surface circulation before genesis, while deep convection plays a key role in moistening the upper troposphere and intensifying the cyclonic circulation over a deep layer. The transition from the tropical wave stage to the TC stage is marked by a substantial increase in net condensation and potential vorticity generation by deep convection in the inner wave pouch region. This study suggests that TC formation can be regarded as a two-stage process. The first stage is a gradual process of moisture preconditioning and the low-level spinup, in which cumulus congestus plays a dominant role. The second stage commences with the rapid development of deep convection in the inner pouch region after the air column is moistened sufficiently, whereupon the concentrated convective heating near the pouch center strengthens the transverse circulation and leads to the amplification of the cyclonic circulation over a deep layer. The rapid development of deep convection can be explained by the power-law increase of precipitation rate with column water vapor (CWV) above a critical value. The high CWV near the pouch center thus plays an important role in convective organization. It is also shown that cumulus congestus can effectively drive the low-level convergence and provides a direct and simple pathway for the development of the TC proto-vortex near the surface.

  17. Remote forcing of water levels by tropical cyclones in southwest Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliot, Matthew; Pattiaratchi, Charitha

    2010-08-01

    Tropical cyclones (termed hurricanes and typhoons in other regions), are extreme events associated with strong winds, torrential rain and storm surges (in coastal areas) and cause extensive damage as a result of strong winds and flooding (caused by either heavy rainfall or ocean storm surges) in the immediate area of impact. The eastern Indian Ocean, particularly in the northwest region of Australia, is impacted by up to 10 tropical cyclones during the cyclone season, although direct impact of cyclones along the west and southwest coastlines is rare. However, the sub-tidal frequency component of sea level records along the west and south coasts of Western Australia indicates lagged correspondence with the occurrence of tropical cyclones. It is demonstrated that the tropical cyclones generate a continental shelf wave which travels along the west and south coasts of Australia up to 3500 km with speeds of 450-500 km day -1 (5.2-5.8 ms -1) with maximum trough to crest wave height of 0.63 m, comparable with the mean daily tidal range in the region. The shelf wave is identified in the coastal sea level records, initially as a decrease in water level, 1-2 days after the passage of the cyclone and has a period of influence up to 10 days. Amplitude of the shelf wave was strongly affected by the path of the tropical cyclone, with cyclones travelling parallel to the west coast typically producing the most significant signal due to resonance and superposition with local forcing. Analysis of water levels from Port Hedland, Geraldton, Fremantle and Albany together with cyclone paths over a ten year period (1988-1998) indicated that the tropical cyclones paths may be classified into 6 different types based on the amplitude of the wave.

  18. Data Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, N. W.; Su, H.

    2012-12-01

    The geometric size of a tropical cyclone (TC) is directly related to its destructive potential. However, widely used measures for TC activity and destructive potential, such as the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and power dissipation index (PDI), are based on maximum wind speed, without considering storm size. Our analysis of the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF), Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC), and National Hurricane Center (NHC) best track data shows that storm size is positively correlated with TC intensity and translation speed globally. The revised ACE and PDI (RACE and RPDI) take into account storm size but do not have a significant effect on annual trends for TC activity and destructive potential. In the Atlantic basin (AL), TC activity and destructiveness measures bear positive correlations with HadISST September sea surface temperature in both short and long term analysis. In the Western Pacific basin (WP), the annual trends of RACE and RPDI exhibit much stronger correlations with local August SST than ACE and PDI. Both results imply a potentially strong linkage between global warming and hurricane destructiveness.

  19. Tropical cyclone intensities from satellite microwave data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vonderhaar, T. H.; Kidder, S. Q.

    1980-01-01

    Radial profiles of mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature from the Nimbus 6 scanning microwave spectrometer (SCAMS) were constructed around eight intensifying tropical storms in the western Pacific. Seven storms showed distinct inward temperature gradients required for intensification; the eighth displayed no inward gradient and was decaying 24 hours later. The possibility that satellite data might be used to forecast tropical cyclone turning motion was investigated using estimates obtained from Nimbus 6 SCAMS data tapes of the mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature field around eleven tropical storms in 1975. Analysis of these data show that for turning storms, in all but one case, the turn was signaled 24 hours in advance by a significant temperature gradient perpendicular to the storm's path, at a distance of 9 deg to 13 deg in front of the storm. A thresholding technique was applied to the North Central U.S. during the summer to estimate precipitation frequency. except

  20. Space options for tropical cyclone hazard mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dicaire, Isabelle; Nakamura, Ryoko; Arikawa, Yoshihisa; Okada, Kazuyuki; Itahashi, Takamasa; Summerer, Leopold

    2015-02-01

    This paper investigates potential space options for mitigating the impact of tropical cyclones on cities and civilians. Ground-based techniques combined with space-based remote sensing instrumentation are presented together with space-borne concepts employing space solar power technology. Two space-borne mitigation options are considered: atmospheric warming based on microwave irradiation and laser-induced cloud seeding based on laser power transfer. Finally technology roadmaps dedicated to the space-borne options are presented, including a detailed discussion on the technological viability and technology readiness level of our proposed systems. Based on these assessments, the space-borne cyclone mitigation options presented in this paper may be established in a quarter of a century.

  1. A Conundrum of Tropical Cyclone Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, C. A.

    2014-12-01

    This paper will address a conundrum that has emerged from recent research on tropical cyclone formation. Composite analyses and case studies suggest that prior to genesis, the atmosphere presents a mid-tropospheric vortex that is strong compared to the cyclonic circulation in the boundary layer. Accompanying this vortex is near saturation from the boundary layer through at least 5 km, sometimes more, and a nearly balanced weak negative temperature anomaly below the vortex and stronger positive temperature anomaly above. This thermodynamic state is one of high moisture but low buoyancy for lifted parcels (i.e. low convective available potential energy). However, observations also suggest that widespread deep convection accompanies genesis, with cloud top temperatures becoming colder near the time of genesis. This is seemingly at odds with in situ observations of thermodynamic characteristics prior to genesis. Progress toward understanding the apparent contradiction can be made by realizing that the existence of a moist, relatively stable vortex, and deep convective clouds are not necessarily coincident in space and time. This is demonstrated by a detailed analysis of the two days leading up to the formation of Atlantic tropical cyclone Karl on 14 September. Karl featured a relatively long gestation period characterized initially by a marked misalignment of mid-tropospheric and surface cyclonic circulations. The mid-tropospheric vortex strengthened due to a pulse of convection earlier on 13 September. Meanwhile, the near-surface vortex underwent a precession around the mid-tropospheric vortex as the separation between the two decreased. The eruption of convection around midnight on 14 September, 18 hours prior to declaration on a TC, occurred in the center of the nearly-aligned vortex, contained a mixture of shallow and deep convection and resulted in spin-up over a deep layer, but particularly at the surface. Prior to genesis, the most intense deep convection was located at least 200 km from the center.

  2. Tropical Cyclone Interactions Within Central American Gyres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papin, P. P.; Bosart, L. F.; Torn, R. D.

    2014-12-01

    Central American gyres (CAGs) are broad (~1000 km diameter) low-level cyclonic circulations that organize over Central America during the tropical cyclone (TC) season. While CAGs have rarely been studied, prior work on similar circulations has been conducted on monsoon depressions (MDs) and monsoon gyres (MGs), which possess spatial scales of 1000 - 2500 km in the west Pacific basin. A key difference between MDs and MGs is related to the organization of vorticity around the low-level circulation. MDs possess a symmetrical vorticity pattern where vorticity accumulates near the circulation center over time, occasionally developing into a large TC. In contrast, MGs possess asymmetrical vorticity, organized in mesovorticies, which rotate cyclonically along the periphery of the MG circulation. Small tropical cyclones (TCs) occasionally develop from these mesovorticies. Interaction and development of TCs within CAGs are also common, as noted by a CAG identified during the 2010 PREDICT field project, which involved the interaction of TC Matthew and the development of TC Nicole within the larger CAG. This project is motivated by the lack of prior research on CAGs, as well as the complex scale interactions that occasionally occur between TCs and CAGs. This presentation focuses on the mutual interaction of vortices embedded in the larger-scale cyclonic flow comprising the CAG circulation. Case studies will be presented using a circulation framework to illustrate the relationship between different scale vorticity elements within the CAG. Some of these case studies resemble a MD-like evolution, where a large TC develops through the accumulation of symmetrical vorticity around the CAG (e.g. TC Opal 1995, TC Frances 1998). Other instances resemble a MG-like evolution, where smaller mesovorticies rotate around a common circulation center (e.g. TC Florence 1988). The circulation analysis framework aids in the diagnosis of interaction between different scale cyclonic vortices, and can be used in other complex TC environment interaction scenarios (e.g. Fujiwara interaction, trough - TC interaction). Observational analyses of TC - CAG interaction are then used to build gyre conceptual models that can be beneficial in forecasting these complex events.

  3. Ocean Barrier Layers’ Effect on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    SciTech Connect

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xu, Zhao; Li, M.; Hsieh, J.

    2012-09-04

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are 'quasi-permanent' features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

  4. On The Genesis of Tropical Cyclones: Role of Mesoscale Interactions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ritchie, Elizabeth; Simpson, Joanne; Pierce, Harold; Velden, Christopher; Brueske, Kurt; Einaudi, Franco

    2000-01-01

    Before the last decades of the 20th century, observations were rarely adequate to assess the role of mesoscale circulations in the formation of tropical cyclones. Recent developments in remote-sensing technology have allowed routine collection of measurements that reveal the small- and mesoscale structure of forming tropical cyclones. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  5. Emergency Department Presentations following Tropical Cyclone Yasi

    PubMed Central

    Aitken, Peter; Franklin, Richard Charles; Lawlor, Jenine; Mitchell, Rob; Watt, Kerrianne; Furyk, Jeremy; Small, Niall; Lovegrove, Leone; Leggat, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Emergency departments see an increase in cases during cyclones. The aim of this study is to describe patient presentations to the Emergency Department (ED) of a tertiary level hospital (Townsville) following a tropical cyclone (Yasi). Specific areas of focus include changes in: patient demographics (age and gender), triage categories, and classification of diseases. Methods Data were extracted from the Townsville Hospitals ED information system (EDIS) for three periods in 2009, 2010 and 2011 to coincide with formation of Cyclone Yasi (31 January 2011) to six days after Yasi crossed the coast line (8 February 2012). The analysis explored the changes in ICD10-AM 4-character classification and presented at the Chapter level. Results There was a marked increase in the number of patients attending the ED during Yasi, particularly those aged over 65 years with a maximum daily attendance of 372 patients on 4 Feb 2011. The most marked increases were in: Triage categories - 4 and 5; and ICD categories - diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue (L00-L99), and factors influencing health care status (Z00-Z99). The most common diagnostic presentation across all years was injury (S00-T98). Discussion There was an increase in presentations to the ED of TTH, which peaked in the first 24 – 48 hours following the cyclone and returned to normal over a five-day period. The changes in presentations were mostly an amplification of normal attendance patterns with some altered areas of activity. Injury patterns are similar to overseas experience. PMID:26111010

  6. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

    PubMed Central

    Glenn, S. M.; Miles, T. N.; Seroka, G. N.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R. K.; Yu, F.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J.

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. PMID:26953963

  7. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glenn, S. M.; Miles, T. N.; Seroka, G. N.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R. K.; Yu, F.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J.

    2016-03-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward.

  8. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Glenn, S M; Miles, T N; Seroka, G N; Xu, Y; Forney, R K; Yu, F; Roarty, H; Schofield, O; Kohut, J

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. PMID:26953963

  9. Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Pike, David A; Stiner, John C

    2007-08-01

    Severe climatic events affect all species, but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study, "tropical cyclone" refers to tropical storms and hurricanes), which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests, but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived, resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately, and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last, and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September, when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season, the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However, published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting, a key life history process. PMID:17479295

  10. Ocean barrier layers’ effect on tropical cyclone intensification

    PubMed Central

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Leung, L. Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

    2012-01-01

    Improving a tropical cyclone’s forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone’s path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are “quasi-permanent” features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity. PMID:22891298

  11. Projecting global tropical cyclone economic damages with validation of tropical cyclone economic damage model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iseri, Y.; Iwasaki, A.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) sometimes cause serious damages to human society and thus possible changes of TC properties in the future have been concerned. In fact, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) mentions likely increasing in intensity and rain rate of TCs. In addition, future change of socioeconomic condition (e.g. population growth) might worsen TC impacts in the future. Thereby, in this study, we developed regression models to estimate economic damages by TCs (hereafter TC damage model), and employed those models to project TC economic damages under several future climate and socioeconomic scenarios. We developed the TC damage models for each of 4 regions; western North Pacific, North American, North Indian, and Southern Hemisphere. The inputs for TC damage model are tropical cyclone central pressure, populations in the area exposed by tropical cyclone wind, and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita. The TC damage models we firstly developed tended to overestimate very low damages and also underestimate very high damages. Thereby we modified structure of TC damage models to improve model performance, and then executed extensive validation of the model. The modified model presented better performance in estimating very low and high TC damages. After the modification and validation of the model, we determined the structure of TC damage models and projected TC economic damages. The result indicated increase in TC economic damage in global scale, while TC economic damage against world GDP would decrease in the future, which result is consistent with previous study.

  12. More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugi, Masato; Yoshida, Kohei; Murakami, Hiroyuki

    2015-08-01

    Recent review papers reported that many high-resolution global climate models consistently projected a reduction of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, although the mechanism of the reduction is not yet fully understood. Here we present a result of 4K-cooler climate experiment. The global TC frequency significantly increases in the 4K-cooler climate compared to the present climate. This is consistent with a significant decrease in TC frequency in the 4K-warmer climate. For the mechanism of TC frequency reduction in a warmer climate, upward mass flux hypothesis and saturation deficit hypothesis have been proposed. The result of the 4K-cooler climate experiment is consistent with these two hypotheses. One very interesting point is that the experiment has clearly shown that TC genesis is possible at sea surface temperature (SST) well below 26°C which has been considered as the lowest SST limit for TC genesis.

  13. Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Woodruff, Jonathan D; Irish, Jennifer L; Camargo, Suzana J

    2013-12-01

    The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence. PMID:24305147

  14. Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodruff, Jonathan D.; Irish, Jennifer L.; Camargo, Suzana J.

    2013-12-01

    The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence.

  15. Impacts of tropical cyclones on Fiji and Samoa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuleshov, Yuriy; Prakash, Bipendra; Atalifo, Terry; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Seuseu, Sunny; Ausetalia Titimaea, Mulipola

    2013-04-01

    Weather and climate hazards have significant impacts on Pacific Island Countries. Costs of hazards such as tropical cyclones can be astronomical making enormous negative economic impacts on developing countries. We highlight examples of extreme weather events which have occurred in Fiji and Samoa in the last few decades and have caused major economic and social disruption in the countries. Destructive winds and torrential rain associated with tropical cyclones can bring the most damaging weather conditions to the region causing economic and social hardship, affecting agricultural productivity, infrastructure and economic development which can persist for many years after the initial impact. Analysing historical data, we describe the impacts of tropical cyclones Bebe and Kina on Fiji. Cyclone Bebe (October 1972) affected the whole Fiji especially the Yasawa Islands, Viti Levu and Kadavu where hurricane force winds have been recorded. Nineteen deaths were reported and damage costs caused by cyclone Bebe were estimated as exceeding F20 million (F 1972). Tropical cyclone Kina passed between Fiji's two main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, and directly over Levuka on the night of 2 January 1993 with hurricane force winds causing extensive damage. Twenty three deaths have been reported making Kina one of the deadliest hurricanes in Fiji's recent history. Severe flooding on Viti Levu, combined with high tide and heavy seas led to destruction of the Sigatoka and Ba bridges, as well as almost complete loss of crops in Sigatoka and Navua deltas. Overall, damage caused by cyclone Kina was estimated as F170 million. In Samoa, we describe devastation to the country caused by tropical cyclones Ofa (February 1990) and Val (December 1991) which were considered to be the worst cyclones to affect the Samoan islands since the 1889 Apia cyclone. In Samoa, seven people were killed due to cyclone Ofa, thousands of people were left homeless and entire villages were destroyed. Damage on Samoa totalled to US130 million. Cyclone Val caused damage and destruction to 95% of houses in Samoa and severe crop damage; total damage was estimated as US200 million. Recently, severe tropical cyclone Evan affected Samoa and Fiji (December 2012). Significant progress in operational tropical cyclone forecasting has been achieved over the past few decades which resulted in improving early warning system but death toll attributed to cyclones is still high - at least 14 deaths in Samoa are related to cyclone Evan (luckily, no death reports in Fiji). Cyclone-related economic losses also remain very high making significant negative impact on economies of the countries. Preliminary assessment of damage caused by cyclone Evan in Fiji indicates loses of about 75.29 million. By the end of this century projections suggest decreasing numbers of tropical cyclones but a possible shift towards more intense categories. In addition, geographic shifts in distribution of tropical cyclone occurrences caused by warming of the atmospheric and oceanic environment are possible. This should be taken in consideration by authorities of the Pacific Island Countries when developing adaptation strategies to increasing tropical cyclone risk due to climate change.

  16. GPM Rain Rates in Tropical Cyclone Pam - Duration: 15 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA-JAXA's GPM Satellite Close-up of Cyclone Pam's Rainfall NASA-JAXA's GPM core satellite captured rain rates in Tropical Cyclone Pam at 03:51 UTC (2:51 p.m. local time) on March 14, 2015. Heavie...

  17. Ozone Measurements from Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carsey, T. P.; Willoughby, H. E.

    2001-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs, hurricanes) are episodic mesoscale features of the tropical and subtropical oceans that are likely to have a large impact on the distributions and fluxes of trace gases. The troposphere boundary layer, possibly enriched by enhanced exchange of dissolved gases from the sea surface, is transported upward as high as 15 km and redistributed over a large horizontal area. Measurements of selected trace gases should therefore be useful in understanding hurricane dynamics and structure; for example, to resolve an ongoing controversy about the lifetime of air within the eye and mixing areas of the eye wall boundary (Willoughby, Mon. Wea. Rev. 126, 3053, 1998). However, few systematic measurements of significant trace gases in TCs have been obtained. NOAA-AOML has measured ozone (O3) in eyewall crossings for a number of Atlantic TCs during the 1998 and 1999 seasons on board NOAA P-3 hurricane research flights. Ozone concentrations showed considerable variation across the eye wall and within the eye; significant changes were also observed as the hurricane aged. These results, related measurements, and their implications for TC structure and marine tropospheric chemistry will be presented.

  18. Tropical Cyclone Jack in Satellite 3-D - Duration: 13 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    This 3-D flyby from NASA's TRMM satellite of Tropical Cyclone Jack on April 21 shows that some of the thunderstorms were shown by TRMM PR were still reaching height of at least 17 km (10.5 miles). ...

  19. GPM Flyby of Tropical Cyclone Uriah - Duration: 25 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    On Feb. 15, GPM saw rain was falling at a rate of over 127 mm (5 inches) per hour in a band of intense storms south of Tropical Cyclone Uriah's center. Thunderstorms moving around the southwestern ...

  20. The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Elsner, James B; Kossin, James P; Jagger, Thomas H

    2008-09-01

    Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere. Over the rest of the tropics, however, possible trends in tropical cyclone intensity are less obvious, owing to the unreliability and incompleteness of the observational record and to a restricted focus, in previous trend analyses, on changes in average intensity. Here we overcome these two limitations by examining trends in the upper quantiles of per-cyclone maximum wind speeds (that is, the maximum intensities that cyclones achieve during their lifetimes), estimated from homogeneous data derived from an archive of satellite records. We find significant upward trends for wind speed quantiles above the 70th percentile, with trends as high as 0.3 +/- 0.09 m s(-1) yr(-1) (s.e.) for the strongest cyclones. We note separate upward trends in the estimated lifetime-maximum wind speeds of the very strongest tropical cyclones (99th percentile) over each ocean basin, with the largest increase at this quantile occurring over the North Atlantic, although not all basins show statistically significant increases. Our results are qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that as the seas warm, the ocean has more energy to convert to tropical cyclone wind. PMID:18769438

  1. Animation of Flood Potential from Two Australian Tropical Cyclones - Duration: 6 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    Merged precipitation data from NASA-JAXA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and other satellites was used to calculate flood potential withrainfall from Tropical Cyclone Lam and Tropical ...

  2. The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustín Breña-Naranjo, J.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Pozos-Estrada, Oscar; Jiménez-López, Salma A.; López-López, Marco R.

    Investigating the contribution of tropical cyclones to the terrestrial water cycle can help quantify the benefits and hazards caused by the rainfall generated from this type of hydro-meteorological event. Rainfall induced by tropical cyclones can enhance both flood risk and groundwater recharge, and it is therefore important to characterise its minimum, mean and maximum contributions to a region or country's water balance. This work evaluates the rainfall contribution of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes across Mexico from 1998 to 2013 using the satellite-derived precipitation dataset TMPA 3B42. Additionally, the sensitivity of rainfall to other datasets was assessed: the national rain gauge observation network, real-time satellite rainfall and a merged product that combines rain gauges with non-calibrated space-borne rainfall measurements. The lower Baja California peninsula had the highest contribution from cyclonic rainfall in relative terms (∼40% of its total annual rainfall), whereas the contributions in the rest of the country showed a low-to-medium dependence on tropical cyclones, with mean values ranging from 0% to 20%. In quantitative terms, southern regions of Mexico can receive more than 2400 mm of cyclonic rainfall during years with significant TC activity. Moreover, (a) the number of tropical cyclones impacting Mexico has been significantly increasing since 1998, but cyclonic contributions in relative and quantitative terms have not been increasing, and (b) wind speed and rainfall intensity during cyclones are not highly correlated. Future work should evaluate the impacts of such contributions on surface and groundwater hydrological processes and connect the knowledge gaps between the magnitude of tropical cyclones, flood hazards, and economic losses.

  3. Tropical cyclone intensity change. A quantitative forecasting scheme

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dropco, K. M.; Gray, W. M.

    1981-01-01

    One to two day future tropical cyclone intensity change from both a composite and an individual case point-of-view are discussed. Tropical cyclones occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1957-1977 form the primary data source. Weather charts of the NW Atlantic were initially examined, but few differences were found between intensifying and non-intensifying cyclones. A rawinsonde composite analysis detected composite differences in the 200 mb height fields, the 850 mb temperature fields, the 200 mb zonal wind and the vertical shears of the zonal wind. The individual cyclones which make up the composite study were then separately examined using this composite case knowledge. Similar parameter differences were found in a majority of individual cases. A cyclone intensity change forecast scheme was tested against independent storm cases. Correct predictions of intensification or non-intensification could be made approximately 75% of the time.

  4. Extra-tropical Cyclones and Windstorms in Seasonal Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, Antje; Knight, Jeff; Thornton, Hazel; Roberts, Julia; Hermanson, Leon

    2015-04-01

    Severe damages and large insured losses over Europe related to natural phenomena are mostly caused by extra-tropical cyclones and their related windstorm fields. Thus, an adequate representation of these events in seasonal prediction systems and reliable forecasts up to a season in advance would be of high value for society and economy. In this study, state-of-the-art seasonal forecast prediction systems are analysed (ECMWF, UK Met Office) regarding the general climatological representation and the seasonal prediction of extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms during the core winter season (DJF) with a lead time of up to four months. Two different algorithms are used to identify cyclones and windstorm events in these datasets. Firstly, we apply a cyclone identification and tracking algorithm based on the Laplacian of MSLP and secondly, we use an objective wind field tracking algorithm to identify and track continuous areas of extreme high wind speeds (cf. Leckebusch et al., 2008), which can be related to extra-tropical winter cyclones. Thus, for the first time, we can analyse the forecast of severe wind events near to the surface caused by extra-tropical cyclones. First results suggest a successful validation of the spatial climatological distributions of wind storm and cyclone occurrence in the seasonal forecast systems in comparison with reanalysis data (ECMWF-ERA40 & ERAInterim) in general. However, large biases are found for some areas. The skill of the seasonal forecast systems in simulating the year-to-year variability of the frequency of severe windstorm events and cyclones is investigated using the ranked probability skill score. Positive skill is found over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere as well as for the most intense extra-tropical cyclones and its related wind fields.

  5. Tropical cyclone motion and recurvature in TCM-90. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzpatrick, M.E.

    1992-01-01

    Rawinsonde and satellite data collected during the Tropical Cyclone Motion (TCM90) experiment, which was conducted during the summer of 1990 in the Western North pacific, is used to examine tropical cyclone steering motion and recurvature. TCM-90 composite results are compared with those found in a composite study using twenty-one years (1957-77) of Western North Pacific rawinsonde data during the same August-September period and also for all months during this same 21-year period. Both data sets indicate that the composite deep-layer-mean (850-300 mb) winds 5-7 deg from the cyclone center provide an important component of the steering flow for tropical cyclones. However, despite the rawinsonde data enhancements of the TCM-90 experiment, data limitations prevented an accurate observation of steering flow conditions at individual time periods or for the average of only 5-10 time periods when composited together.

  6. Cloud Condensation Nuclei Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hudson, J. G.; Simpson, J.

    2002-01-01

    The first measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) within and around tropical cyclones were made with the Desert Research Institute (DRI) CCN spectrometer (Hudson 1909) from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft throughout the 2001 season. Two penetrations of the closed eye of Hurricane Erin off the northeast US coast on Sept. 10 showed concentrations consistently well in excess of 1000 per cubic cm at approximately 1.4% supersaturation. Simultaneous condensation nuclei (CN--total particle) concentrations were consistently well in excess of 2000 per cubic cm throughout these closed eye penetrations. These within eye measurements at 4 km altitude for exceeded CCN and CN measurements just outside of the storm at similar altitudes--300 and 600 per cubic cm respectively. These CCN and CN concentrations within this closed eye were far above concentrations in maritime air masses; they are characteristic of continental or polluted air masses. Although there was a possibility that Saharan duct may have gotten into this storm these sub tenth micrometer particles are much too small and much too numerous to be dust. Such high concentrations may have originated from European air pollution, which may have been transported by similar airflow patterns to those that carry Saharan dust across the Atlantic. These high concentrations may be a manifestation of descending air that brings higher concentrations that are often characteristic of the upper troposphere (Clarke and Kapustin 2002). Later in the month measurements in Humberto showed highly variable CCN and CN concentrations that ranged from lots than 5 per cubic cm to more than 1000 per Cubic cm over km scale distances within and around the open eye of this tropical storm/hurricane. These very low concentrations suggest strong cloud scavenging.

  7. Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodyss, D.; McLay, J.; Moskaitis, J.; Serra, E.

    2014-12-01

    Stochastic parameterization has become commonplace in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models used for probabilistic prediction. Here, a specific stochastic parameterization will be related to the theory of stochastic differential equations and shown to be affected strongly by the choice of stochastic calculus. From an NWP perspective our focus will be on ameliorating a common trait of the ensemble distributions of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks (or position), namely that they generally contain a bias and an underestimate of the variance. With this trait in mind we present a stochastic track variance inflation parameterization. This parameterization makes use of a properly constructed stochastic advection term that follows a TC and induces its position to undergo Brownian motion. A central characteristic of Brownian motion is that its variance increases with time, which allows for an effective inflation of an ensemble's TC track variance. Using this stochastic parameterization we present a comparison of the behavior of TCs from the perspective of the stochastic calculi of Itô and Stratonovich within an operational NWP model. The central difference between these two perspectives as pertains to TCs is shown to be properly predicted by the stochastic calculus and the Itô correction. In the cases presented here these differences will manifest as overly intense TCs, which, depending on the strength of the forcing, could lead to problems with numerical stability and physical realism.

  8. Tropical cyclone-permitting simulations of un-Earthlike climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merlis, T. M.; Zhao, M.; Held, I.

    2014-12-01

    Global atmospheric general circulation models with sufficiently high (about 50 km) horizontal resolution can simulate Earth-like distributions of tropical cyclones when Earth-like boundary conditions and forcing are specified. Consequently, these Earth-like simulations conform to the intuition developed over the last 50 years of observational analysis: tropical cyclones preferentially occur in low latitude, warm regions.Here, we will present the results of high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model simulations in climatic regimes that are vastly different than Earth's by idealizing the boundary conditions and forcing. When the solar radiation and ocean heat transport are pushed to un-Earthlike distributions to probe a wider range of climatic regimes, the simulated tropical cyclone distribution can have surprising features. In particular, tropical cyclones may be more prevalent in the extratropics and may be more prevalent in the colder hemisphere of the simulated climate. The results of these simulations suggest that an understanding of the environmental parameters controlling tropical cyclones requires a broader perspective than that offered by Earth's current climate.

  9. Satellite-based Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, J.; Richardson, K.; Surratt, M.; Yang, S.; Lee, T. F.; Sampson, C. R.; Solbrig, J.; Kuciauskas, A. P.; Miller, S. D.; Kent, J.

    2012-12-01

    Satellite remote sensing capabilities to monitor tropical cyclone (TC) location, structure, and intensity have evolved by utilizing a combination of operational and research and development (R&D) sensors. The microwave imagers from the operational Defense Meteorological Satellite Program [Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS)] form the "base" for structure observations due to their ability to view through upper-level clouds, modest size swaths and ability to capture most storm structure features. The NASA TRMM microwave imager and precipitation radar continue their 15+ yearlong missions in serving the TC warning and research communities. The cessation of NASA's QuikSCAT satellite after more than a decade of service is sorely missed, but India's OceanSat-2 scatterometer is now providing crucial ocean surface wind vectors in addition to the Navy's WindSat ocean surface wind vector retrievals. Another Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard EUMETSAT's MetOp-2 satellite is slated for launch soon. Passive microwave imagery has received a much needed boost with the launch of the French/Indian Megha Tropiques imager in September 2011, basically greatly supplementing the very successful NASA TRMM pathfinder with a larger swath and more frequent temporal sampling. While initial data issues have delayed data utilization, current news indicates this data will be available in 2013. Future NASA Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) sensors starting in 2014 will provide enhanced capabilities. Also, the inclusion of the new microwave sounder data from the NPP ATMS (Oct 2011) will assist in mapping TC convective structures. The National Polar orbiting Partnership (NPP) program's VIIRS sensor includes a day night band (DNB) with the capability to view TC cloud structure at night when sufficient lunar illumination exits. Examples highlighting this new capability will be discussed in concert with additional data fusion efforts.

  10. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts

    PubMed Central

    Mumby, Peter J.; Vitolo, Renato; Stephenson, David B.

    2011-01-01

    Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another. PMID:22006300

  11. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts.

    PubMed

    Mumby, Peter J; Vitolo, Renato; Stephenson, David B

    2011-10-25

    Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another. PMID:22006300

  12. Observations of Wind Asymmetries in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dougherty, E.; Davis, C. A.

    2014-12-01

    Most major cities are located on coastlines, vulnerable to the direct impacts of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it is critical to understand and improve prediction of these storms in order to make communities more resilient. Though hurricane warning systems have improved in recent years, these warnings are insufficient, because they fail to account for an indication of tropical cyclone wind asymmetry, or the radial extent of maximum winds in different locations within the cyclone. This study explored the wind asymmetry (defined by magnitude and orientation) among 337 Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1988-2012, utilizing the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Extended Best Track Dataset (EBT) and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Asymmetry was defined as the magnitude of the largest difference in the radius of gale-force wind across opposing quadrants, normalized by the average of the four wind radii. The asymmetry orientation pointed along the axis of maximum asymmetry toward the quadrant with the greater gale radius. Relationships between wind asymmetry and various storm characteristics such as geographical location, storm life cycle, intensity, size, storm motion, and vertical wind shear were examined. The magnitude of asymmetry increased in higher latitudes and along coastlines, particularly in smaller storms. Asymmetry was higher at the beginning of a storm's life, possibly owing to a less well-organized structure, and higher at the end of a storm's life, coinciding with an increase in vertical wind shear and translation speed. Results from this study may allow for improved tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings to help protect seaside communities.

  13. Predictability of Tropical Cyclones Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belanger, J. I.; Webster, P. J.; Hoyos, C. H.; Curry, J. A.; Agudelo, P. A.

    2008-12-01

    The predictability of tropical cyclones using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) is demonstrated with 3 severe cyclones in the Indian Ocean and 1 supertyphoon from the northwest Pacific, which include: Gonu, Sidr, and Man-Yi from 2007 and Nargis from 2008. While TC genesis forecasts are assumed to have little skill beyond 48 hours, we show that these projections can provide considerable lead-time with the ECMWF ensembles on average, correctly projecting the date of genesis and location of TC formation 5.5 days in advance. In addition, the ECMWF EPS shows considerable skill in track forecasts for both timing and location of movement especially in the 7 to 10 day range for all four tropical cyclones. While TC intensity forecasts are generally underestimated - attributed to the reduced resolution in the ECMWF ensembles - these intensity projections, especially for large tropical cyclones, can provide several days of additional lead-time that is not currently provided. This extra lead-time is vitally important in countries where coastal evacuations and disaster preparations are particularly slow. The potential forecasting benefits using the ECMWF EPS for tropical cyclones is reviewed in conjunction with a separate presentation in how this information can be used to mitigate disaster risk for countries in coastal areas of the Northern Indian Ocean.

  14. Field theoretical prediction of a property of the tropical cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spineanu, F.; Vlad, M.

    2014-01-01

    The large scale atmospheric vortices (tropical cyclones, tornadoes) are complex physical systems combining thermodynamics and fluid-mechanical processes. The late phase of the evolution towards stationarity consists of the vorticity concentration, a well known tendency to self-organization , an universal property of the two-dimensional fluids. It may then be expected that the stationary state of the tropical cyclone has the same nature as the vortices of many other systems in nature: ideal (Euler) fluids, superconductors, Bose-Einsetin condensate, cosmic strings, etc. Indeed it was found that there is a description of the atmospheric vortex in terms of a classical field theory. It is compatible with the more conventional treatment based on conservation laws, but the field theoretical model reveals properties that are almost inaccessible to the conventional formulation: it identifies the stationary states as being close to self-duality. This is of highest importance: the self-duality is known to be the origin of all coherent structures known in natural systems. Therefore the field theoretical (FT) formulation finds that the cuasi-coherent form of the atmospheric vortex (tropical cyclone) at stationarity is an expression of this particular property. In the present work we examine a strong property of the tropical cyclone, which arises in the FT formulation in a natural way: the equality of the masses of the particles associated to the matter field and respectively to the gauge field in the FT model is translated into the equality between the maximum radial extension of the tropical cyclone and the Rossby radius. For the cases where the FT model is a good approximation we calculate characteristic quantities of the tropical cyclone and find good comparison with observational data.

  15. Training on Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones for Latin American students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farfán, L. M.; Raga, G. B.

    2009-05-01

    Tropical cyclones are one of the most impressive atmospheric phenomena and their development in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins has potential to affect several Latin-American and Caribbean countries, where human resources are limited. As part of an international research project, we are offering short courses based on the current understanding of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin. Our main goal is to train students from higher-education institutions from various countries in Latin America. Key aspects are tropical cyclone formation and evolution, with particular emphasis on their development off the west coast of Mexico. Our approach includes lectures on tropical cyclone climatology and formation, dynamic and thermodynamic models, air-sea interaction and oceanic response, ocean waves and coastal impacts as well as variability and climate-related predictions. In particular, we use a best-track dataset issued by the United States National Hurricane Center and satellite observations to analyze convective patterns for the period 1970-2006. Case studies that resulted in landfall over northwestern Mexico are analyzed in more detail; this includes systems that developed during the 2006, 2007 and 2008 seasons. Additionally, we have organized a human-dimensions symposium to discuss socio-economic issues that are associated with the landfall of tropical cyclones. This includes coastal zone impact and flooding, the link between cyclones and water resources, the flow of weather and climate information from scientists to policy- makers, the role of emergency managers and decision makers, impact over health issues and the viewpoint of the insurance industry.

  16. Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

  17. Tropical Cyclone Genesis: A Dynamician's Point of View

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouali, Safieddine; Leys, Jos

    The paper focuses the route to the maturity of a cyclone as a twist process of the Hadley cell. The approach is qualified by a "dynamician's viewpoint" since the aerologic mechanism of the cyclone genesis is replicated without the classical tools of the meteorological fluid framework. Indeed, we introduce a pure dynamical model of a 2D vertical rotor of an airparcel to emulate the Hadley cell. Twisted by an appropriate feedback to inject geophysical forcing, the simulation displays two stretched solenoid rolls with clockwise and anticlockwise paths representing the Hadley belts wrapping the Earth. When the forcing parameter is higher, computations simulate overlapped whirlwind funnels revealing strong similarities with the structure of cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons described in the atmospheric science literature. We conjecture that ocean-atmosphere interactions separate and convert a "slice" of the Hadley rotor into a fully tropical cyclone.

  18. Impact of Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cecil, Dan; Marchok, Tim

    2014-01-01

    While tropical cyclone rainfall has a large axisymmetric component, previous observational and theoretical studies have shown that environmental vertical wind shear leads to an asymmetric component of the vertical motion and precipitation fields. Composites consistently depict a precipitation enhancement downshear and also cyclonically downwind from the downshear direction. For consistence with much of the literature and with Northern Hemisphere observations, this is subsequently referred to as "Downshear-Left". Stronger shear magnitudes are associated with greater amplitude precipitation asymmetries. Recent work has reinforced the prior findings, and explored details of the response of the precipitation and kinematic fields to environmental vertical wind shear. Much of this research has focused on tropical cyclones away from land, to limit the influence of other processes that might distort the signal related to vertical wind shear. Recent evidence does suggest vertical wind shear can also play a major role in precipitation asymmetries during and after landfall.

  19. A statistical analysis of the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Todd W.

    2015-05-01

    Tropical cyclones often produce tornadoes that have the potential to compound the injury and fatality counts and the economic losses associated with tropical cyclones. These tornadoes do not occur uniformly through time or across space. Multiple statistical methods were used in this study to analyze the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency. Results indicate that there is an association between the two and that tropical cyclones tend to produce more tornadoes when they are weakening, but the association is weak. Tropical cyclones can also produce a substantial number of tornadoes when they are relatively stable or strengthening.

  20. Laboratory modeling of the early stage of a tropical cyclone.

    PubMed

    Zimin, V. D.; Startsev, S. E.; Shadurov, V. G.; Moiseev, S. S.

    1991-08-01

    Laboratory experiments have been carried out on natural convection in a rotating layer of liquid heated from below. A distinguishing feature of these experiments is an excellent thermal insulation of the layer boundaries. As a result, large-scale convection structures form. Laboratory analogs of the early stages of development of tropical cyclones have been obtained. PMID:12779919

  1. Tropical storms: The socio-economics of cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noy, Ilan

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the potential social and economic damage and loss wrought by tropical cyclones requires not only understanding how they will change in frequency and intensity in a future climate, but also how these hazards will interact with the changing exposures and vulnerabilities associated with social change.

  2. Observation, Analysis and Prediction of Atlantic tropical Cyclone Formation (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, C. A.; Torn, R. D.

    2010-12-01

    During the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, significant observational and prediction resources were used to study the process of tropical cyclone formation and its predictability. Observations, in addition to those routinely available from satellites, were provided by aircraft from NOAA, NASA and NSF participating jointly in an effort to understand tropical cyclone formation and the sometimes rapid transformation of a weak cyclone into a strong tropical cyclone. The NSF-sponsored PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) is focused on tropical (easterly) waves over the Atlantic and seeks observations of the general wave trough region to distinguish characteristics of waves that develop into tropical cyclones from those that do not. Among the PREDICT hypotheses is that recirculation regions, defined by closed lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulations in a frame of reference moving with the wave, allow air parcels to be isolated from dry air, thus increasing their humidity over time. Deep moist convection in air with high humidity through a deep layer of the troposphere, in a region of strong rotation, produces comparatively weak or more localized downdrafts and tends to favor inflow and spinup of cyclonic circulation. Observations from dropsondes and an array of other instruments on the NSF/NCAR G-V aircraft sampled air inside and outside the recirculation regions as well as other structural characteristics of several tropical waves. These observations are synthesized to evaluate the central PREDICT hypotheses. One of the sub-hypotheses of PREDICT is that these recirculation regions, or their boundaries, can be the source of significant initial condition error, which limits the predictability of these disturbances. Moreover, it is also possible that uncertainties outside the recirculation region could have large impact on forecasts. We explore these possibilities using an ensemble Kalman filter analysis and forecasting system that is run with and without special field observations to understand inherited uncertainty in the background, how much this uncertainty can be reduced by observations in location where the forecast is sensitive to the initial conditions, particularly in the wave trough region, and how these initial condition uncertainties manifest themselves in forecasts. Finally, results from high-resolution forecasts used to predict formation and early intensification stages of Atlantic storms during the 2010 season will be highlighted.

  3. In-Situ Observations in Tropical Cyclones from Ocean Drifters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morzel, J.; Centurioni, L. R.

    2013-05-01

    Ocean Drifters are cost effective, robust and high-quality instruments currently used to observe important variables in the ocean and atmosphere boundary layers during tropical cyclones. They have been configured to measure sea level atmospheric air pressure, wind velocity, solar insolation, sea surface and sub-surface temperature, ocean mixed-layer currents and three-dimensional ocean velocity (typically in depths of 0-150m). Ocean drifters have been successfully deployed in seven hurricanes (Atlantic Ocean) and in four typhoons (Pacific Ocean). Drifters are air-deployed about 18-24 hours ahead of an approaching tropical cyclone from a C-130J aircraft by the 53rd WRS "Hurricane Hunters" at a spacing of 30-50km in a line perpendicular to the expected storm track. On average, the tropical cyclone center has passed within 20km of the nearest drifter, and as close as 3km. Measurements are taken every 15 minutes and are transmitted via Argos or Iridium satellites in real-time and posted to the Global Telecommunication System of the World Weather Watch. The instrument success rate has been 92% in all previous deployments during tropical cyclone conditions from Cat-1 to Cat-5. The high quality of drifter observations has been validated with co-located measurements from dropwindsondes, nearby ocean profiling floats and satellites. Distinct features of the coupled tropical cyclone atmosphere-ocean system observed by the drifters include: the exponential decrease of sea level pressure towards the minimum at the storm center, the radius of maximum winds and their strength, the cold ocean wake on the right hand side of the storm, the inertial currents in the upper ocean, the downward propagation of inertial waves in the ocean, the relatively fast recovery of the sea surface temperature in the cold wake and the longer endurance of the sub-surface wake. In addition, the drifters have detected the response of the atmospheric boundary layer to the ocean's cold wake by measuring the distinct turning of surface winds towards the center of the tropical cyclone above the cold wake. Drifter data are a valuable asset for real-time storm assessment by warning centers, for initializing and constraining forecast models and for post-season validation/calibration of coupled models. The drifter deployment methodology will be reviewed and a summary of the observations obtained within some particularly significant tropical cyclones will be presented.

  4. Tropical cyclone track forecasting techniques ? A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, Chandan; Kovordnyi, Rita

    2012-02-01

    Delivering accurate cyclone forecasts in time is of key importance when it comes to saving human lives and reducing economic loss. Difficulties arise because the geographical and climatological characteristics of the various cyclone formation basins are not similar, which entail that a single forecasting technique cannot yield reliable performance in all ocean basins. For this reason, global forecasting techniques need to be applied together with basin-specific techniques to increase the forecast accuracy. As cyclone track is governed by a range of factors variations in weather conditions, wind pressure, sea surface temperature, air temperature, ocean currents, and the earth's rotational force?the coriolis force, it is a formidable task to combine these parameters and produce reliable and accurate forecasts. In recent years, the availability of suitable data has increased and more advanced forecasting techniques have been developed, in addition to old techniques having been modified. In particular, artificial neural network based techniques are now being considered at meteorological offices. This new technique uses freely available satellite images as input, can be run on standard PCs, and can produce forecasts with good accuracy. For these reasons, artificial neural network based techniques seem especially suited for developing countries which have limited capacity to forecast cyclones and where human casualties are the highest.

  5. Dynamically Downscaling Precipitation from Extra-Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Champion, A.; Hodges, K.; Bengtsson, L.

    2012-04-01

    Recent flooding events experienced by the UK and Western Europe have highlighted the potential disruption caused by precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones. The question as to the effect of a warming climate on these events also needs to be addressed to determine whether such events will become more frequent or more intense in the future. The changes in precipitation can be addressed through the use of Global Climate Models (GCMs), however the resolution of GCMs are often too coarse to drive hydrological models, required to investigate any flooding that may be associated with the precipitation. The changes to the precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones are investigated by tracking cyclones in two resolutions of the ECHAM5 GCM, T213 and T319 for 20th and 21st century climate simulations. It is shown that the intensity of extreme precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones is predicted to increase in a warmer climate at both resolutions. It was also found that the increase in resolution shows an increase in the number of extreme events for several fields, including precipitation; however it is also seen that the magnitude of the response is not uniform across the seasons. The tails of the distributions are investigated using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) using a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) with a Peaks over Threshold (POT) method, calculating return periods for given return levels. From the cyclones identified in the T213 resolution of the GCM a small number of cyclones were selected that pass over the UK, travelling from the South-West to the North-East. These are cyclones that are more likely to have large amounts of moisture associated with them and therefore potentially being associated with large precipitation intensities. Four cyclones from each climate were then selected to drive a Limited Area Model (LAM), to gain a more realistic representation of the precipitation associated with each extra-tropical cyclone. The suitability of the LAM for downscaling was evaluated by running the LAM for the events of June and July 2007 (UK floods) and comparing the output to observations. The results from this comparison provide confidence that the model is able of reproducing realistic intensities for extreme precipitation events. Whilst this method does not allow for a robust comparison between the climates it does for allow for an analysis of the method, and whether dynamically downscaling individual events is suitable. It was found that by nesting the LAM within the GCM, large increases in the precipitation intensities were seen, as well as gaining a greater temporal resolution. Analysis of more events will allow a more robust comparison between climates.

  6. Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shay, L.

    2012-04-01

    Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial depth of the mixed layer and strength of the stratification level that set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the oceanic mixed layer. For example in oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean (and sea surface temperatures) quickly which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback from the ocean to the atmosphere. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture is available through the sea surface. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions (low vertical shear, anticyclonic circulation aloft), tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina and Rita in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. These effects and possible impact on TC deepening and weakening underscores the necessity of having complete 3-D ocean measurements juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements.

  7. Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shay, L. K.

    2012-12-01

    Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial mixed layer depth and strength of the stratification that essentially set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the mixed layer. In oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean to form cold wakes which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture transfers are available through the enthalpy fluxes (typically 1 to 1.5 kW m-2) into the hurricane boundary layer. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions, tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. Thus, to constrain these models, having complete 3-D ocean profiles juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements prior, during and subsequent to passage is an absolute necessity framed within regional scale satellite derived fields.

  8. Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle as Observed by TRMM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leppert, Kenneth D., II; Cecil, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    Using infrared satellite data, previous work has shown a consistent diurnal cycle in the pattern of cold cloud tops around mature tropical cyclones. In particular, an increase in the coverage by cold cloud tops often occurs in the inner core of the storm around the time of sunset and subsequently propagates outward to several hundred kilometers over the course of the following day. This consistent cycle may have important implications for structure and intensity changes of tropical cyclones and the forecasting of such changes. Because infrared satellite measurements are primarily sensitive to cloud top, the goal of this study is to use passive and active microwave measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), respectively, to examine and better understand the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle throughout a larger depth of the storm's clouds. The National Hurricane Center's best track dataset was used to extract all PR and TMI pixels within 1000 km of each tropical cyclone that occurred in the Atlantic basin between 1998-2011. Then the data was composited according to radius (100-km bins from 0-1000 km) and local standard time (LST; 3-hr bins). Specifically, PR composites involved finding the percentage of pixels with reflectivity greater than or equal to 20 dBZ at various heights (i.e., 2-14 km in increments of 2 km) as a function of radius and time. The 37- and 85- GHz TMI channels are especially sensitive to scattering by precipitation-sized ice in the mid to upper portions of clouds. Hence, the percentage of 37- and 85-GHz polarization corrected temperatures less than various thresholds were calculated using data from all storms as a function of radius and time. For 37 GHz, thresholds of 260 K, 265 K, 270 K, and 275 K were used, and for 85 GHz, thresholds of 200-270 K in increments of 10 K were utilized. Note that convection forced by the interactions of a tropical cyclone with land (e.g., due to frictional convergence) may disrupt the natural convective cycle of a cyclone. Hence, only data pertaining to storms whose centers were greater than 300 km from land were included in the composites. Early results suggest the presence of a diurnal cycle in the PR composites of all Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from a height of 2-12 km from approximately 0-400 km radius, but the cycle is most apparent above 6 km. At a height of 8 km, there is a peak (minimum) in the percentage of PR pixels greater than or equal to 20 dBZ near 0 (21) LST in the inner core with some indication that this signal propagates outward with time. In contrast, the 37- and 85-GHz composites show little indication of a diurnal cycle at any radii, regardless of the threshold used. Ongoing work with this project will involve sub-setting the composites according to storm intensity to see if the diurnal cycle varies with storm strength. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear often leads to asymmetries in tropical cyclone convection and may disrupt the cyclone's natural diurnal cycle. Therefore, wind shear thresholds will be applied to the composites to determine if the diurnal cycle becomes more apparent in a low shear environment. Finally, other work to be completed will involve developing composites for other tropical cyclone basins, including the East Pacific, Northwest Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Ocean.

  9. Intensification of tropical cyclones in the GFS model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marín, J. C.; Raymond, D. J.; Raga, G. B.

    2008-09-01

    Special forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model were used in this study to evaluate how the intensification process in a tropical cyclone is represented in this model. Several tropical cyclones that developed in 2005 were analyzed in terms of the storm-scale circulation rather than more traditional measures such as maximum wind or minimum central pressure. The primary balance governing the circulation in the planetary boundary layer is between the convergence of environmental vorticity, which tends to spin up the storm, and surface friction, which tends to spin it down. In addition, we employ recently developed ideas about the relationship between precipitation and the saturation fraction of the environment to understand the factors controlling mass, and hence vorticity convergence. The budget of moist entropy is central to this analysis. Two well-known governing factors for cyclone intensification emerge from this study; surface moist entropy fluxes, dependent in the model on sea surface temperature and cyclone-generated surface winds, and ventilation of the system by dry environmental air. Quantitative expressions for the role of these factors in cyclone intensification are presented in this paper.

  10. Intensification of tropical cyclones in the GFS model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marín, J. C.; Raymond, D. J.; Raga, G. B.

    2009-02-01

    Special forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model were used in this study to evaluate how the intensification process in a tropical cyclone is represented in this model. Several tropical cyclones that developed in 2005 were analyzed in terms of the storm-scale circulation rather than more traditional measures such as maximum wind or minimum central pressure. The primary balance governing the circulation in the planetary boundary layer is between the convergence of environmental vorticity, which tends to spin up the storm, and surface friction, which tends to spin it down. In addition, we employ recently developed ideas about the relationship between precipitation and the saturation fraction of the environment to understand the factors controlling mass, and hence vorticity convergence. The budget of moist entropy is central to this analysis. Two well-known governing factors for cyclone intensification emerge from this study; surface moist entropy fluxes, dependent in the model on sea surface temperature and cyclone-generated surface winds, and ventilation of the system by dry environmental air. Quantitative expressions for the role of these factors in cyclone intensification are presented in this paper.

  11. Influence of tropical cyclones on tropospheric ozone: possible implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shankar Das, Siddarth; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narasimhan Uma, Kizhathur; Venkata Subrahmanyam, Kandula; Asatar Girach, Imran; Patra, Amit Kumar; Aneesh, Sundaresan; Viswanathan Suneeth, Kuniyil; Kishore Kumar, Karanam; Parashuram Kesarkar, Amit; Sijikumar, Sivarajan; Ramkumar, Geetha

    2016-04-01

    The present study examines the role of tropical cyclones in the enhancement of tropospheric ozone. The most significant and new observation reported is the increase in the upper-tropospheric (10-16 km) ozone by 20-50 ppbv, which has extended down to the middle (6-10 km) and lower troposphere ( < 6 km). The descent rate of enhanced ozone layer during the passage of tropical cyclone is 0.8-1 km day-1, which is three times that of a clear-sky day (non-convective). Enhancement of surface ozone concentration by ˜ 10 ppbv in the daytime and 10-15 ppbv in the night-time is observed during a cyclone. Potential vorticity, vertical velocity and potential temperature obtained from numerical simulation, reproduces the key feature of the observations. A simulation study indicates the downward transport of stratospheric air into the troposphere. Space-borne observations of relative humidity indicate the presence of sporadic dry air in the upper and middle troposphere over the cyclonic region. These observations quantitatively constitute experimental evidence of redistribution of stratospheric ozone during cyclonic storms.

  12. Modeling Tropical Cyclone induced inland flooding for Houston metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, L.

    2011-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are an important source of extreme precipitation and they have caused destructive inland floods in Texas. The Houston metropolitan area is a highly populated region with rapid economic development. The Bayou River basin was selected as the study area because it covers most of Houston. This study will employ HEC-HMS (a hydrological model) simulate the flood discharge from tropical storm Alison in 2001. The simulated discharge will be compared with observed discharge values for model adjustment and calibration. An iterative process will be used to calibrate the model. Then the flood discharge of another extreme precipitation event (Hurricane Ike) will be calculated from the fitted HEC model. Modeled discharge from both events will be used as inputs for HEC-RAS (a hydraulic model) to generate regional inundation maps. The purposes of this study are: (1) to understand how an urbanized hydrological system in Texas reacts to extreme precipitation brought by Tropical Cyclones, and (2) to construct a reliable model of inland flooding for future applications. Questions will be answered by this study are: What are the similarities and differences in flooding caused by two recent tropical storms that have affected the Houston metro area? Which factor plays a more important role in determining the TC floods intensity, variations in precipitation or changes in land use? Key words: Tropical Cyclone, Hydrological Model, Floods, Houston

  13. Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Damages under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranson, M.; Kousky, C.; Ruth, M.; Jantarasami, L.; Crimmins, A.; Tarquinio, L.

    2014-12-01

    This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone losses under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 296 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from twenty studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models (84 and 92 percent, respectively) predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5°C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 62 percent. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are approximately one third of that magnitude. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.

  14. The Indian Ocean Dipole's influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marinaro, Alan Joseph

    Improving early tropical cyclone forecasts would assist reinsurance decision makers as they seek information that can minimize risks. Early lead forecasts are based on model variables before December 1 (Year 0) that predict Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (Year +1). The autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has an 8 to 14 month antecedent correlation with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is traditionally the best non-lead and overall predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Analyses were performed over a 30-year period from 1984/85-2013/14, with some time variation depending on the test. Correlation, spatial, and wavelet analyses were utilized to find associations between the IOD, west and east components of the IOD, and four other variables related to the following season's ENSO state and tropical cyclone activity. The prior western pole of the October IOD (WIOD) was demonstrated to have statistically significant r-squared values (i.e. 99% confidence interval) to upcoming tropical storm activity (i.e. explained 25% of the variance), named storm counts (28%), and ENSO (21%). The WIOD has no connection with U.S. hurricane landfalls. Wavelet analysis between October IOD variables and following August-October ENSO data was observed to have the best time-frequency relationship. Dynamic reasoning for these relationships reside within the idealized biennial IOD-ENSO cycle, Walker circulation process, and the impact of ENSO on the state of the Atlantic Basin. The WIOD's integration into early-lead forecast models could be an advantage for those in the reinsurance industry and other decision makers impacted by Atlantic tropical cyclonesn.

  15. The Relationship Between Tropical Cyclone Frequency and 'Climate Change'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolton, M.; Mogil, M.

    2013-12-01

    Please note: there have been minor updates to this work since the main author, Matt Bolton, graduated high school, but the majority of the research was compiled by him while he was a high school junior in 2011. Abstract: In recent years, there has been a growing trend by many, in the meteorological community (media and scientist) to predict expected seasonal tropical cyclone frequency in the Atlantic and Pacific Basins. Typically, the numbers are related to seasonal averages. However, these predictions often show a large positive bias (i.e., there are more years in which the expected number of storms exceeds or far exceeds average). Further, observed numbers often come close to bearing out the forecasts (actually a good thing). From a public perspective (and based on extrapolations performed by media and some scientific groups), this peaking of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is observed globally. In an attempt to determine if such a global trend exists, we set out to collect data from weather agencies around the world and present it in a way that was as unbiased as possible. While there were inconsistencies across the various datasets, especially in regard to wind data, we were still able to construct a realistic global cyclone database. We have concluded that high activity levels in one basin are often balanced by areas of low activity in others. The Atlantic - Eastern Pacific couplet is one such example. This paper will serve as an update to our previous 2011 paper, which introduced our efforts. At that time, we found, on average, 70 named tropical cyclones worldwide. In both this and our original study, we did not address the issue of naming short-lived tropical systems, which was found to be inconsistent across worldwide ocean basins. Our results suggest, that from a global climate change perspective, a growing NUMBER of tropical cyclones is NOT being observed. In the current iteration of our study, we are examining, at least preliminarily, global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) values. As these values are computed more widely in the coming months, we also hope to include a breakdown of worldwide tropical systems by category and duration.

  16. Toarcian extreme warmth led to tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krencker, François-Nicolas; Bodin, Stéphane; Suan, Guillaume; Heimhofer, Ulrich; Kabiri, Lahcen; Immenhauser, Adrian

    2015-09-01

    Models predict that tropical cyclone intensity should increase on a warming planet. Observing this relationship remains, however, a difficult task since no clear trend is yet emerging from the anthropogenic record. The geological past offers the opportunity to study this relationship by looking at episodes of extreme warmth, such as the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE, Early Jurassic, ca. 181 Ma). In this study, we document an increase in the occurrence of storm-related deposits during the onset of the T-OAE in the tide-dominated High Atlas Basin of Morocco, associated with a drastic deepening of the mean storm weather wave base. The palaeolatitude of the High Atlas Basin (18° North during the Early Jurassic) rules out winter storms as the driving mechanism behind the formation of these deposits and points to a dramatic intensification of tropical cyclone intensity during the T-OAE global warming. These new results, combined with the previously reported ubiquitous appearance of storm deposits during the T-OAE in tropical seas of the western Tethyan area, support the concept that the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will increase in the coming century due to the anthropogenic climate change.

  17. Tropical Cyclone Monty Strikes Western Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) acquired these natural color images and cloud top height measurements for Monty before and after the storm made landfall over the remote Pilbara region of Western Australia, on February 29 and March 2, 2004 (shown as the left and right-hand image sets, respectively). On February 29, Monty was upgraded to category 4 cyclone status. After traveling inland about 300 kilometers to the south, the cyclonic circulation had decayed considerably, although category 3 force winds were reported on the ground. Some parts of the drought-affected Pilbara region received more than 300 millimeters of rainfall, and serious and extensive flooding has occurred.

    The natural color images cover much of the same area, although the right-hand panels are offset slightly to the east. Automated stereoscopic processing of data from multiple MISR cameras was utilized to produce the cloud-top height fields. The distinctive spatial patterns of the clouds provide the necessary contrast to enable automated feature matching between images acquired at different view angles. The height retrievals are at this stage uncorrected for the effects of the high winds associated with cyclone rotation. Areas where heights could not be retrieved are shown in dark gray.

    The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer observes the daylit Earth continuously and every 9 days views the entire globe between 82 degrees north and 82 degrees south latitude. These data products were generated from a portion of the imagery acquired during Terra orbits 22335 and 22364. The panels cover an area of about 380 kilometers x 985 kilometers, and utilize data from blocks 105 to 111 within World Reference System-2 paths 115 and 113.

    MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology.

  18. Coastal Hazard due to Tropical Cyclones in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva-Casarin, R.; Mendoza-Baldwin, E.; Marino-Tapia, I.; Enriquez, C.; Ruiz, G.; Escalante-MAncera, E.; Ruíz-Rentería, F.

    2013-05-01

    The Mexican coast is hit every year by at least 3 cyclones and it is affected for nearly 59 hours a year on average; this induces undesirable consequences, such as coastal erosion and flooding. To evaluate the hazard to which the coastal zone is exposes, a historical characterization of atmospheric conditions (surface winds and pressure conditions of the storms), waves (wave heights and their associated wave periods) and flooding levels due to tropical storms for more than 60 years is presented. The atmospheric and wave conditions were evaluated using a modification of the original parametric Hydromet-Rankin Vortex Model by Bretschneider (1990) and Holland (1980) as presented by Silva, et al. (2002). The flooding levels caused by hurricanes were estimated using a two-dimensional, vertically averaged finite volume model to evaluate the storm surge, Posada et al. (2008). The cyclone model was compared to the data series of 29 cyclones recorded by buoys of the National Data Buoy Center-NOAA and some data recorded in shallow waters near Cancun, Mexico and the flooding model was compared with observed data from Cancun, Mexico; both models gave good results. For the extreme analyses of wind, wave heights and maximum flooding levels on the Mexican coasts, maps of the scale and location parameters used in the Weibull cumulative distribution function and numerical results for different return periods are provided. The historical occurrence of tropical storms is also revised as some studies indicate that the average intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing; no definite trends pointing to an increase in storm frequency or intensity were found. What was in fact found is that although there are more cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and these persist longer, the intensity of the cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean is greater affecting. In any case, the strong necessity of avoiding storm induced coastal damage (erosion and flooding) is reflected in numerous works, such as this one, which aim to better manage the coastal area and reduce its vulnerability to hurricanes. References Bretschneider, C.L., 1990. Tropical Cyclones. Handbook of Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Gulf Publishing Co., Vol. 1, 249-370. Holland, G.L., 1980. An analytical model of wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108, 1212-1218. Posada, G., Silva, R. & de Brye, S. 2008. Three dimensional hydrodynamic model with multiquadtree meshes. American Journal of Environmental Sciences. 4(3): 209-222. Silva, R., Govaere, G., Salles, P., Bautista, G. & Díaz, G. 2002. Oceanographic vulnerability to hurricanes on the Mexican coast. International Conference on Coastal Engineering, pp. 39-51.

  19. Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

    1997-01-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

  20. The Middle Atmospheric variability over Indian region during Tropical cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhagavathiammal, G. J.

    In order to study the various characteristics of atmosphere during the passage of tropical cyclones, some atmospheric parameters over Indian region has been studied. The tropospheric variability has been studied with the help of surface pressure variation obtained from microbarograph at Tirunelveli (8.7oN, 77.8oE). The stratospheric ozone variability has been obtained from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) satellite over the Bay of Bengal as well as Arabian Ocean. The ionospheric current over Indian region has been obtained from the network of Indian Institute of Geomagnetism. We have studied the ionospheric current variations over Tirunelveli (inside the electrojet region) and Alibag (outside the electrojet region). The tropospheric cyclone track has been obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department. The pressure variation obtained over Tirunelveli has been converted into FFT spectrum and it shows the enhancement in power of surface gravity waves of period about 150 min. The magnitude of enhancement depends upon the distance of the cyclone track. The stratospheric ozone obtained by TOMS shows an increase in ozone during tropical depression by about 10 DU followed by decrease in total ozone up to 25 DU along the cyclone track. The ionospheric current shows the changes in power of Inertial Gravity Waves (IGW) over Tirunelveli as well as Alibag. The power of IGW over Tirunelveli shows decrease by about 25

  1. Trends in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Man-Chi; Yeung, Kai-Hing; Chang, Wen-Lam

    2006-11-01

    Using the tropical cyclone best track data from the U.S. Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Webster et al. found that between the two consecutive 15-year periods of 1975-1989 and 1990-2004, the percentage of typhoons in the western North Pacific meeting the definition of categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale has increased from 25% to 41% of all typhoons in that ocean basin

  2. Impact of bogus tropical cyclones on summertime circulation in regional climate simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, Young-In; Lee, Dong-Kyou

    2002-08-01

    Ten-year (1987-1996) summertime simulations are conducted using a regional climate model to investigate the impact of tropical cyclones on simulated summertime circulation over east Asia. Toward this end, a tropical cyclone-bogusing scheme is incorporated into a regional climate-modeling framework to realistically describe tropical cyclone structure and its intensity during seasonal integration. The simulated summertime monsoon climatology with and without bogus tropical cyclones incorporated into the large-scale forcing of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is analyzed. The model with the bogus tropical cyclones shows improvement in the intensity and tracks of the tropical cyclones. In addition, the well-defined tropical cyclones in the model are sustained for a longer time, so they actually modify the east Asian summer monsoon circulation as well as the extratropical circulation. The bogus tropical cyclones in the model also produce much stronger convection and then a larger amount of precipitation modifying the entire precipitation pattern. Meanwhile, compared with the observations, the intensity of the bogus tropical cyclones weakens more rapidly in the earlier stage of the tropical cyclone development. With the bogus tropical cyclones, the large-scale features over east Asia are closer to observations. Major results are as follows: (1) The intensity of the North Pacific subtropical high becomes weaker, while it is excessively intensified and shifted northward without the bogus tropical cyclones. (2) The southerly or southwesterly monsoon flows in the lower troposphere are reduced, meanwhile they are too strong, accompanying the northward excessive transport of moisture in the no-bogus simulation. (3) The midlatitude jets and storm tracks are intensified and shifted southward. (4) Especially, the retreat of the east Asian summer monsoon in late August is well reproduced, which is completely missed in the cases of poorly resolved tropical cyclones. (5) The empirical orthogonal function analysis reveals that the large-scale variability of the east Asia summertime circulation does appear realistically with the bogus tropical cyclones. (6) The biweekly period related to the life cycle of the intraseasonal monsoon depressions is much weakened, while the period of 5 ~ 7 days associated with the synoptic or mesoscale disturbances, such as tropical cyclone activities, is intensified. One of the important findings in this study is that with the bogus tropical cyclones, the secondary rainy season in late August associated with the retreat of the east Asian summer monsoon is simulated realistically. The secondary rainy season annually takes place in middle-latitude east Asia, especially over southern China, Korea, and Japan. This finding strongly suggests that one of the major reasons for the secondary rainy season could be tropical cyclone activities.

  3. Hindcasts of Integrated Kinetic Energy in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozar, Michael; Misra, Vasubandhu

    2015-04-01

    Integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is a recently developed metric that evaluates the destructive potential of a tropical cyclone by assessing the size and strength of its wind field. Despite the potential usefulness of the IKE metric, there are few, if any, operational tools that are specifically designed to forecast IKE in real-time. Therefore, a system of artificial neural networks is created to produce deterministic and probabilistic projections of IKE in North Atlantic tropical cyclones out to 72 hours from a series of relevant environmental and storm specific normalized input parameters. In an effort to assess its real-time skill, this IKE forecasting system is run in a mock-operational mode for the 1990 to 2011 North Atlantic hurricane seasons. Hindcasts of IKE are produced in this manner by running the neural networks with hindcasted input parameters from NOAA's second generation Global Ensemble Forecasting System reforecast dataset. Ultimately, the results of the hindcast exercises indicate that the neural network system is capable of skillfully forecasting IKE in an operational setting at a level significantly higher than climatology and persistence. Ultimately, forecasts of IKE from these neural networks could potentially be an asset for operational meteorologists that would complement existing forecast tools in an effort to better assess the damage potential of landfalling tropical cyclones, particularly with regards to storm surge damage.

  4. Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2007-01-01

    Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

  5. Multi-Scale Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, J. D.; Moskaitis, J.; Black, P. G.; Hendricks, E. A.; Reinecke, A.; Amerault, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    The intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) may be sensitive to aspects of large-scale forcing, as well as internal mesoscale dynamics. In this presentation, the degree to which tropical cyclone intensity and structure is sensitive to small perturbations to the basic properties of the synoptic-scale environment, as well as in the immediate vicinity of the storm, is explored using both adjoint- and ensemble-based approaches. In particular, we explore the relationship between tropical cyclone intensity changes and upper-level outflow. We make use of observations from two recent field campaigns: i) the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3), which featured two fully instrumented Global Hawk unmanned aerial systems, and ii) the ONR Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI-14) experiment that utilized the NASA WB-57. We make use of the Navy's high-resolution tropical cyclone prediction system COAMPS-TC to provide ensemble forecasts, numerical experiments with and without the assimilation of specific observation types (e.g., satellite, dropsondes, high-frequency radiosonde), as well as mesoscale nested adjoint sensitivity and observation impact calculations, all of which provide insight into the initial state sensitivity and predictability issues. We assess the impact of observations in sensitive regions in the TC environment (including outflow regions away from the TC inner core) on predictions of TC intensity and structure. Overall the results underscore the importance of multiple scales that influence the predictability of TC intensification. During HS3, the assimilation of Global Hawk dropsondes has been shown to reduce the maximum wind error from 15 knots to less than 10 knots at 48 h for Hurricane Nadine (2012). In this particular case, the adjoint model shows strong sensitivity in the TC outflow near the entrance region of an upper-level jet. The impact of dropsondes from data denial experiments and adjoint-based observation impact calculations will be discussed for other cases from the HS3 and TCI programs, including Nadine , Leslie (2012), and Gabrielle (2013), as well as other storms such as Superstorm Sandy (2012).

  6. Relationship of tropical-cyclone-induced remote precipitation with tropical cyclones and the subtropical high

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Rui; Ding, Zhiying; You, Sangjie; Xu, Haiming

    2015-12-01

    This study concerns the precipitation induced by a tropical cyclone (TC) before the TC arrives, which will be referred to as TC remote precipitation (TRP). Based on the distribution characteristics of the non-rotational wind and the divergent-wind vertical circulation related to TC, the subtropical high, and TRP of 45 TRP events during June, July, and August of 2000‒2009, the relationships among these three entities (TC, subtropical high, and TRP) can be categorized into four patterns. The first pattern accounts for the highest proportion of the TRP events (59%), and a conceptual model is then provided for this pattern. The primary characteristics of this model are as follows: TC, the subtropical high, and TRP can interact with each other through the divergent-wind secondary circulation at both sides of the ridge line of the subtropical high (between the subtropical high and TC, and between the subtropical high and TRP). At the upper level (150 or 200 hPa), the northward non-rotational wind from the TC converged toward the subtropical high ridge line and subsided, and at 950 hPa the divergent wind from the ridge line of the subtropical high converged toward TC; these constructed the secondary circulation between TC and the subtropical high. In the meantime, the southward nonrotational wind at the upper level (150 or 200 hPa) from TRP and the divergent wind at 950 hPa from the subtropical high ridge line toward TRP constructed the secondary circulation between TRP and the subtropical high. As TC and TRP interacted with each other, the subtropical high ridge line was usually under the downdraft area of the whole atmosphere. The other three patterns are different from the first pattern mainly in terms of the intensity and position of the non-rotational-wind secondary circulation. The numerical simulation of the Beijing 7•21 rainstorm confirmed the relationship among TC, the subtropical high, and TRP, indicating that when the interaction weakened, the TRP also weakened.

  7. The influence of sea-surface temperatures on Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ralph, Trisha U.; Gough, William A.

    2009-03-01

    The influence of sea-surface temperatures on six measures of tropical cyclone activity in the Eastern North Pacific is examined using historical sea-surface temperature and tropical cyclone data spanning from 1971 to 2002. Relationships are evaluated using methods of trend analysis, extreme year analysis, and bivariate correlation. Results suggest that in order to understand the climatological factors affecting topical cyclone activity in the Eastern North Pacific, the main development region must be divided into two sub-regions of development to the east and west of 112°W longitude. Increasing trends of sea-surface temperature are not accompanied by increasing trends in tropical cyclone activity. In the western development region, sea-surface temperatures are significantly correlated with all measures of tropical cyclone activity during extreme years. In this region, sea-surface temperatures are on average below the threshold for tropical cyclone development. In the Eastern development region, the only significant correlation with sea-surface temperatures is for the more intense measures of hurricane activity. In this region, sea-surface temperatures are on average above the threshold for cyclone formation. This leads to the hypothesis that the proximity to the cyclone formation temperature threshold in the WDR enhances the sensitivity of tropical cyclone activity to SSTs. This may have application to other tropical cyclone basins such as the North Atlantic.

  8. Satellite-observed latent heat release in a tropical cyclone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, R. F.; Rodgers, E. B.

    1976-01-01

    Data from the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) are used to make calculations of the latent heat release (L.H.R.) and the distribution of rainfall rate in a tropical cyclone as it grows from a tropical disturbance to a typhoon. The L.H.R. (calculated over a circular area of 4 deg latitude radius) increases during the development and intensification of the storm from a magnitude of 2.7 X 10 to the 21st power ergs/s (in the disturbance stage) to 8.8 X 10 to the 21st power ergs (typhoon stage). The latter value corresponds to a mean rainfall rate of 2.0 mm hr/s. The more intense the cyclone and the greater the L.H.R., the greater the percentage contribution of the larger rainfall rates to the L.H.R. In the disturbance stage the percentage contribution of rainfall rates less than or minus 6 mm hr/s is typically 8%; for the typhoon stage, the value is 38%. The distribution of rainfall rate as a function of radial distance from the center indicates that as the cyclone intensifies, the higher rainfall rates tend to concentrate toward the center of the circulation.

  9. Relation of tropical cyclone structure with thundersorm activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shevtsov, B. M.; Permyakov, M. S.; Potalova, E. Yu.; Cherneva, N. V.; Holzworth, Robert

    2015-11-01

    Synoptic and mesoscale cyclone systems over an ocean and seas are often accompanied by thunderstorm activity, which intensity and spatial distribution are modulated by the dynamic structure of these systems. The paper considers a method connecting the parameters of this thunderstorm activity with weather system structures over oceans and seas with mesoscale formation intensities and forms in these systems determined by driving wind vortex fields of scatterometers and by satellite images in visible and infrared ranges. On the example of separate tropical cyclones (TC) of 2005-2013, the relation of lightning discharge frequency and density in the TC area of influence and spatial distribution of driving wind vortex is shown. The work was supported by the Russian-American Grant RUG1-7084-PA- 13 in the area of fundamental researches of FEB RAS and CRDF.

  10. Tropical cyclone waves detected with infrasound sensor array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-02-01

    The strong winds of a tropical cyclone whip up the sea surface, driving ocean waves a dozen meters high. When one such ocean wave runs into another wave that has an equal period but is traveling in the opposite direction, the interaction produces low-frequency sound waves that can be detected thousands of kilometers away. The infrasound signals produced by interacting ocean surface waves—known as microbarom—have typical frequencies around 0.2 hertz. Researchers previously determined that as a hurricane travels along its track, early waves generated by the storm will interact with those generated later on, producing a strong microbarom signal in the storm's wake. Researchers also found, however, that microbarom signals are produced by regular surface ocean behavior, including swell, surface waves, and nontropical cyclone storms.

  11. Storm-centric view of Tropical Cyclone oceanic wakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gentemann, C. L.; Scott, J. P.; Smith, D.

    2012-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have a dramatic impact on the upper ocean. Storm-generated oceanic mixing, high amplitude near-inertial currents, upwelling, and heat fluxes often warm or cool the surface ocean temperatures over large regions near tropical cyclones. These SST anomalies occur to the right (Northern Hemisphere) or left (Southern Hemisphere) of the storm track, varying along and across the storm track. These wide swaths of temperature change have been previously documented by in situ field programs as well as IR and visible satellite data. The amplitude, temporal and spatial variability of these surface temperature anomalies depend primarily upon the storm size, storm intensity, translational velocity, and the underlying ocean conditions. Tropical cyclone 'cold wakes' are usually 2 - 5 °C cooler than pre-storm SSTs, and persist for days to weeks. Since storms that occur in rapid succession typically follow similar paths, the cold wake from one storm can affect development of subsequent storms. Recent studies, on both warm and cold wakes, have mostly focused on small subsets of global storms because of the amount of work it takes to co-locate different data sources to a storm's location. While a number of hurricane/typhoon websites exist that co-locate various datasets to TC locations, none provide 3-dimensional temporal and spatial structure of the ocean-atmosphere necessary to study cold/warm wake development and impact. We are developing a global 3-dimensional storm centric database for TC research. The database we propose will include in situ data, satellite data, and model analyses. Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) has a widely-used storm watch archive which provides the user an interface for visually analyzing collocated NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds with GHRSST microwave SSTs and SSM/I, TMI or AMSR-E rain rates for all global tropical cyclones 1999-2009. We will build on this concept of bringing together different data near storm locations when developing the storm-centric database. This database will be made available to researchers via the web display tools previously developed for RSS web pages. The database will provide scientists with a single data format collection of various atmospheric and oceanographic data, and will include all tropical storms since 1998, when the passive MW SSTs from the TMI instrument first became available. Initial results showing an analysis of Typhoon Man-Yi will be presented.

  12. Disaster triggers disaster: Earthquake triggering by tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wdowinski, S.; Tsukanov, I.

    2011-12-01

    Three recent devastating earthquakes, the 1999 M=7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan), 2010 M=7.0 Leogane (Haiti), 2010 M=6.4 Kaohsiung (Taiwan), and additional three moderate size earthquakes (6tropical mountainous areas shortly after very wet tropical cyclones (hurricane or typhoon) hit the very same area. The most familiar example is Haiti, which was hit during the late summer of 2008 by two hurricanes and two tropical storms (Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) within 25 days. A year an a half after this very wet hurricane season, the 2010 Leogane earthquake occurred in the mountainous Haiti's southern peninsula and caused the death of more than 300,000 people. The other cases are from Taiwan, which is characterized by a high seismicity level and frequent typhoon landfall. The three wettest typhoons in Taiwan's past 50 years were Morakot (in 2009, with 2885 mm or rain), Flossie (1969, 2162 mm) and Herb (1996, 1987 mm)[Lin et al., 2010]. Each of this three very wet storms was followed by one or two main-shock M>6 earthquake that occurred in the central mountainous area of Taiwan within three years after the typhoon. The 2009 Morakot typhoon was followed by 2009 M=6.2 Nantou and 2010 M=6.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes; the 1969 Flossie typhoon was followed by an M=6.3 earthquake in 1972; and the 1996 Herb typhoon by the 1998 M=6.2 Rueyli and 1999 M=7.6 Chi-Chi earthquakes. The earthquake catalog of Taiwan lists only two other M>6 main-shocks that occurred in Taiwan's central mountainous belt, one of them was in 1964 only four months after the wet Typhoon Gloria poured heavy rain in the same area. We suggest that the close proximity in time and space between wet tropical cyclones and earthquakes reflects a physical link between the two hazard types in which these earthquakes were triggered by rapid erosion induced by tropical cyclone's heavy rain. Based on remote sensing observations, meshfree finite element modeling, and Coulomb failure stress analysis, we show that the erosion induced by very wet cyclones increased the failure stresses at the hypocenters' depth by 300-1500 Pa, which ultimately triggered these earthquakes. Our findings are supported by a statistical analysis indicating a very low probability (1-5%) for a random earthquake occurrence process to form the observed typhoon-earthquake temporal distribution.

  13. Viewing the top of the cyclone: CALIOP Ice water content in the uppermost layer of tropical cyclones, 2006 - 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avery, M. A.; Heymsfield, A.; Young, S.; Deng, M.; Holz, R. E.; Smith, W.; Vaughan, M.

    2012-12-01

    NASA's Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) is ideally suited to viewing the very top of tropical cyclones. CALIOP measures 532 nm backscattered light, at both parallel and perpendicular polarizations. The backscattered signal, with 60 m vertical resolution, provides an accurate measurement of tropical cyclone cloud top heights. Ice water content is parameterized from optical extinction coefficients. Extinction coefficients are retrieved as the 532 nm beam penetrates the cloud deck, until attenuation occurs at an effective optical depth of approximately three. Depolarization provides some insight about particle habit. CALIOP sensitivity to cloud ice water content in the uppermost layer is 0.1 mg/m3, a detection range that includes sub-visible cirrus. Most hurricane or tropical cyclone measurements are focused on the middle and lower regions of storms, but characterization of cyclone interaction with the lowermost stratosphere at the upper storm boundary may be important for determining the total momentum and moisture transport budget. A survey of 5 years of CALIOP observations of the uppermost layer of tropical cyclones is presented, including more detailed analysis of Hurricanes Bill, Karl, and Earl, and Typhoons Bud, Ileana and Choi-wan. For reference, CALIOP observations of cloud top height and ice water content are also compared with MODIS and CloudSat observations during these six tropical cyclones. A surprising amount of cloud ice is to be found between 16 - 19 km, at the very top of these big storms.

  14. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment.

    PubMed

    Webster, P J; Holland, G J; Curry, J A; Chang, H-R

    2005-09-16

    We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. These increases have taken place while the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade. PMID:16166514

  15. Hydrological Balance in Tropical Cyclones with Scatterometer and TRMM Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, W. Timothy; Hua, Hu; Tang, Wenqing

    2000-01-01

    Precipitation over oceans can be estimated from the radar and the microwave radiometer of the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). It can also be estimated from the divergence of the vertically integrated water vapor transport, through the conservation principle, assuming evaporation is relatively small. In tropical cyclones, the divergence of vertically integrated water vapor is highly dependent on the vertical transport and, therefore, on the wind divergence. Spaceborne scatterometers provide surface wind velocity and, therefore, surface wind divergence at spatial resolutions that are much higher than products of numerical weather prediction (NWP). In this study, ocean surface winds derived from the observations of space-based scatterometers and surface precipitation measured by TRMM were objectively interpolated to the same time and location during the passage of a tropical cyclone. Surface precipitation distribution was derived from wind and humidity profiles provided by NWP. When the surface level winds of NWP were replaced by the scatterometer winds, the surface precipitation patterns computed with the conservation method were found to be significantly changed and the new patterns are much closer in agreement with the patterns observed by TRMM.

  16. NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall, Hot Towers in Tropical Cyclone Nathan - Duration: 15 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA-JAXA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite showed that the heaviest rainfall occurring in Tropical Cyclone Nathan on March 18 at 0758 UTC (3:58 a.m. EDT) was falling at a rat...

  17. Buoyancy in tropical cyclones and other rapidly rotating atmospheric vortices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Roger K.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Zhu, Hongyan

    2005-07-01

    Motivated primarily by its application to understanding tropical-cyclone intensification and maintenance, we re-examine the concept of buoyancy in rapidly rotating vortices, distinguishing between the buoyancy of the symmetric balanced vortex or system buoyancy, and the local buoyancy associated with cloud dynamics. The conventional definition of buoyancy is contrasted with a generalized form applicable to a vortex, which has a radial as well as a vertical component. If, for the special case of axisymmetric motions, the balanced density and pressure distribution of a rapidly rotating vortex are used as the reference state, the buoyancy field then characterizes the unbalanced density perturbations, i.e. the local buoyancy. We show how to determine such a reference state without approximation. The generation of the toroidal circulation of a vortex, which is necessary for vortex amplification, is characterized in the vorticity equation by the baroclinicity vector. This vector depends, inter-alia, on the horizontal (or radial) gradient of buoyancy evaluated along isobaric surfaces. We show that for a tropical-cyclone-scale vortex, the buoyancy so calculated is significantly different from that calculated at constant height or on surfaces of constant σ ( σ = ( p - p*)/( ps - p*), where p is the actual pressure, p* some reference pressure and ps is the surface pressure). Since many tropical-cyclone models are formulated using σ-coordinates, we examine the calculation of buoyancy on σ-surfaces and derive an expression for the baroclinicity vector in σ-coordinates. The baroclinic forcing term in the azimuthal vorticity equation for an axisymmetric vortex is shown to be approximately equal to the azimuthal component of the curl of the generalized buoyancy. A scale analysis indicates that the vertical gradient of the radial component of generalized buoyancy makes a comparatively small contribution to the generation of toroidal vorticity in a tropical cyclone, but may be important in tornadoes and possibly also in dust devils. We derive also a form of the Sawyer-Eliassen equation from which the toroidal (or secondary) circulation of a balanced vortex may be determined. The equation is shown to be the time derivative of the toroidal vorticity equation in which the time rate-of-change of the material derivative of potential toroidal vorticity is set to zero. In analogy with the general case, the diabatic forcing term in the Sawyer-Eliassen equation is shown to be approximately equal to the time rate-of-change of the azimuthal component of the curl of generalized buoyancy. Finally, we discuss the generation of buoyancy in tropical cyclones and contrast the definitions of buoyancy that have been used in recent studies of tropical cyclones. We emphasize the non-uniqueness of the buoyancy force, which depends on the choice of a reference density and pressure, and note that different, but equivalent interpretations of the flow dynamics may be expected to arise if different reference quantities are chosen.

  18. Budget Comparison of Parameterized Microphysical Processes in Tropical Cyclone Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michelson, Sara A.; Bao, Jian-Wen; Grell, Evelyn D.

    2015-04-01

    Despite the fact that microphysics parameterization schemes used in numerical models for tropical cyclone (TC) prediction can be as complex as being capable of resolving the evolution of hydrometeor size spectra, operational centers still cannot computationally afford to run any TC prediction models with spectrum-resolving schemes operationally. To strike an optimal balance between computational cost and physical effect, there is a need to understand what minimal complexity of microphysics parameterizations is required in operational TC prediction models that are run at affordable resolutions. In order to address this need, we have been investigating whether or not the microphysics schemes currently used in NOAA's operational TC models are complex enough to enable us to use these models for high-resolution prediction of tropical cyclones. In this study, we used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the impact of parameterized warm-rain processes in four widely-used bulk microphysics parameterization schemes on the model-simulated tropical cyclone (TC) development. The schemes investigated, ranging from a single-moment simple 3-category scheme to a complex double-moment 6-category scheme, produce different TC intensification rates and average vertical hydrometeor distributions, as well as different accumulated precipitation. By diagnosing the source and sink terms of the hydrometeor budget equations, we found that the differences in the warm-rain production rate, particularly by conversion of cloud water to rain water, contribute significantly to the variations in the frozen hydrometeor production and in the overall latent heat release above the freezing level. These differences in parameterized warm-rain production reflect the differences of the four schemes in the definition of rain droplet size distribution and consequently in spectrum-dependent microphysical processes, such as accretion growth of frozen hydrometeors and their sedimentation. We will show that the hydrometeor budget analysis of the four schemes indicates that the assumed pathways to the production of frozen hydrometeors are quite sensitive to the amount of available super-cooled rain water and, thus, the uncertainties in the parameterized warm-rain processes can affect the intensification and structure of the model-simulated tropical cyclone. Furthermore, we will show that the results from this study strongly suggest that the advantage of double-moment formulations can be overshadowed by the uncertainties in the spectral definition of individual hydrometeor categories and spectrum-dependent microphysical processes.

  19. Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensify Change Using Data Mining

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Jiang

    2010-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC), especially when their intensity reaches hurricane scale, can become a costly natural hazard. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is very difficult because of inadequate observations on TC structures, poor understanding of physical processes, coarse model resolution and inaccurate initial conditions, etc. This

  20. Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensify Change Using Data Mining

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Jiang

    2010-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC), especially when their intensity reaches hurricane scale, can become a costly natural hazard. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is very difficult because of inadequate observations on TC structures, poor understanding of physical processes, coarse model resolution and inaccurate initial conditions, etc. This…

  1. Effect of tropical cyclones on the tropical tropopause parameters observed using COSMIC GPS RO data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babu, S. Ravindra; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Basha, Ghouse; Krishnamurthy, B. V.; Venkateswara Rao, B.

    2015-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are deep convective synoptic scale systems and play an important role in modifying the thermal structure, tropical tropopause parameters and hence stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) processes. In the present study, high vertical resolution and high accuracy measurements from COSMIC Global Positioning System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) measurements are used to investigate and quantify the effect of tropical cyclones that occurred over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea in last decade on the tropical tropopause parameters. The tropopause parameters include cold point tropopause altitude (CPH) and temperature (CPT), lapse rate tropopause altitude (LRH) and temperature (LRT) and the thickness of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), that is defined as the layer between convective outflow level (COH) and CPH, obtained from GPS RO data. From all the TCs events, we generate the mean cyclone-centered composite structure for the tropopause parameters and removed from climatological mean obtained from averaging the GPS RO data from 2002-2013. Since the TCs include eye, eye walls and deep convective bands, we obtained the tropopause parameters based on radial distance from cyclone eye. In general, decrease in the CPH in the eye is noticed as expected. However, as the distance from cyclone eye increases by 3, 4, and 5° an enhancement in CPH (CPT), LRH (LRT) are observed. Lowering of CPH (0.6 km) and LRH (0.4 km) values with coldest CPT and LRT (2-3 K) within the 500 km radius from the TC centre is noticed. Higher (2 km) COH leading to the lowering of TTL thickness (2-3 km) is clearly observed. There exists multiple tropopause structures in the profiles of temperature obtained within 1° from centre of TC. These changes in the tropopause parameters are expected to influence the water vapour transport from troposphere to lower stratosphere and ozone from lower stratosphere to the upper troposphere and hence STE processes.

  2. Abstracting the Pacific Ocean's Impact on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faghmous, J.; Le, M.; Liess, S.; Mesquita, M.; Kumar, V.

    2012-12-01

    The warming anomalies of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the near- equatorial Pacific Ocean (ENSO) have well documented global long-range weather teleconnections from rainfall in southern India to mudslides in the western United States. In this work, we focus on ENSO's teleconnections with North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Traditionally, ENSO's impact on Atlantic TCs has been abstracted by monitoring the warming of static regions along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. We propose that the spatial distribution of Pacific Ocean warming might provide better predictive insights into ENSO-Atlantic TC impact than warming anomalies alone. We present a distance-based ENSO index (S-ENSO for spatial ENSO) that tracks the location of the maximum near-tropical Pacific warming anomaly instead the absolute warming of a static region. Our spatial ENSO index correlates better with seasonal TC activity than standard ENSO indices, especially with increased lead times.

  3. High-Resolution Paleotempestology: Proxy Models for Reconstructing Interannual-Decadal Variations in Pre-Historic Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frappier, A. B.; Sahagian, D.; Carpenter, S. J.; Gonz lez, L. A.; Frappier, B. R.

    2005-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (including hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones) are among the most deadly and destructive natural hazards. As coastal populations and infrastructure in affected areas grow, the impact of these storms is sure to increase. On the other hand, the impact of global climate change on tropical cyclone activity remains uncertain and highly controversial. Recent research suggests that the destructive power of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and north Pacific has increased substantially in recent decades in response to global warming. Related work also suggests that global tropical cyclone activity may be an important feedback mechanism in the planetary heat transport system that works to stabilize tropical temeratures and de-stabilize polar temperatures. In this century, climate change scenarios project that ocean-atmosphere conditions will become increasingly different from the 20th century for which the best historial and meteorological records of tropical cyclones are available. Geo-biologic proxies for paleotempestology can extend the historical record of tropical cyclone activity, enabling hypothesis testing across a wider array of climate boundary conditions. We present a 23-year tropical stalagmite record of recent stable isotope variations at monthly-weekly temporal resolution contains abrupt low excursions in the stable oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O value) of calcite that correspond temporally with recent historical tropical cyclones in the vicinity of the cave. Using logistic regression, we developed a statistical model to detect the proxy signature of tropical cyclone precipitation events in high-resolution speleothem stable isotope records can be used to reconstruct interannual-decadal variations in pre-historic storm frequency. The model reliably identified eight of the ten historically known tropical cyclone proxy signals in this record using the measurable parameters δ18O value, δ13C value, and single point changes in δ18O value; the model incorrectly classified only one of nearly 1200 non-storm sampling points. We also present a preliminary model to reconstruct the intensity of individual storms from the amplitude of δ18O value excursions. High-resolution speleothem stable isotope records thus may prove a useful new source of data in the effort to elucidate the controversial associations between highly variable tropical cyclone activity and the dynamic range of Quaternary climate.

  4. A Study of Microphysical Parameterizations and Simulated Tropical Cyclone Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, Jian-Wen; Grell, Evelyn D.; Michelson, Sara A.

    2014-05-01

    This presentation highlights major results from an idealized tropical cyclone case study in which the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to compare and evaluate three bulk microphysics parameterization (MP) schemes with various degrees of complexity: the Ferrier single-moment 3-category, the WRF single-moment 6-category (WSM6) and the Thompson double-moment 6-category formulations. We first compare the sensitivity of the WRF-simulated intensification of an idealized tropical cyclone to the three MP schemes. We then compare the heating profiles and hydrometeor distributions from the three schemes. We further diagnose the source and sink terms of all the hydrometeor budgets. Results from this diagnosis indicate that the major differences in the production of hydrometeors in these schemes are more in the spectral definition of individual hydrometeor categories and spectral-dependent microphysical processes, such as accretion growth and sedimentation, than the differences between the single- and double-moment formulations. Differences in the assumed pathways to the production of frozen hydrometeors also significantly contribute to the differences among these schemes. This study demonstrates that hydrometeor budget analysis is an effective tool for MP scheme comparison and evaluation studies, allowing better understanding of actual assumed pathways to cloud and precipitation production in these schemes and their associated uncertainties.

  5. The Effect of Vertical Shear on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demaria, Mark

    1996-07-01

    The effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change is usually explained in terms of `ventilation' where heat and moisture at upper levels are advected away from the low-level circulation, which inhibits development. A simple two-layer diagnostic balance model is used to provide an alternate explanation of the effect of shear. When the upper-layer wind in the vortex environment differs from that in the lower layer, the potential vorticity (PV) pattern associated with the vortex circulation becomes tilted in the vertical. The balanced mass field associated with the tilted PV pattern requires an increased midlevel temperature perturbation near the vortex center. It is hypothesized that this midlevel warming reduces the convective activity and inhibits the storm development.Previous studies have shown that diabatic heating near the storm center acts to reduce the vertical tilt of the vortex circulation. These studies have also shown that there is an adiabatic process that acts to reduce the vertical tilt of a vortex. The effectiveness of the adiabatic process depends on the Rossby penetration depth, which increases with latitude, horizontal scale, and vortex amplitude. Large-scale analyses from the 1989-1994 Atlantic hurricane seasons are used to show that high-latitude, large. and intense tropical cyclones tend to be less sensitive to the effect of vertical shear than low-latitude, small, and weak storms.

  6. Classic Maya civilization collapse associated with reduction in tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medina, M. A.; Polanco-Martinez, J. M.; Lases-Hernández, F.; Bradley, R. S.; Burns, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    In light of the increased destructiveness of tropical cyclones observed over recent decades one might assume that an increase and not a decrease in tropical cyclone activity would lead to societal stress and perhaps collapse of ancient cultures. In this study we present evidence that a reduction in the frequency and intensity of tropical Atlantic cyclones could have contributed to the collapse of the Maya civilization during the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, AD. 800-950). Statistical comparisons of a quantitative precipitation record from the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) Maya lowlands, based on the stalagmite known as Chaac (after the Mayan God of rain and agriculture), relative to environmental proxy records of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and tropical Atlantic cyclone counts, suggest that these records share significant coherent variability during the TCP and that summer rainfall reductions between 30 and 50% in the Maya lowlands occurred in association with decreased Atlantic tropical cyclones. Analysis of modern instrumental hydrological data suggests cyclone rainfall contributions to the YP equivalent to the range of rainfall deficits associated with decreased tropical cyclone activity during the collapse of the Maya civilization. Cyclone driven precipitation variability during the TCP, implies that climate change may have triggered Maya civilization collapse via freshwater scarcity for domestic use without significant detriment to agriculture. Pyramid in Tikal, the most prominent Maya Kingdom that collapsed during the Terminal Classic Period (circa C.E. 800-950) Rainfall feeding stalagmites inside Rio Secreto cave system, Yucatan, Mexico.

  7. Sea surface signature of tropical cyclones using microwave remote sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kil, Bumjun; Burrage, Derek; Wesson, Joel; Howden, Stephan

    2013-06-01

    Measuring the sea surface during tropical cyclones (TC) is challenging due to severe weather conditions that prevent shipboard measurements and clouds which mask the sea surface for visible satellite sensors. However, sea surface emission in the microwave L-band can penetrate rain and clouds and be measured from space. The European Space Agency (ESA) MIRAS L-band radiometer on the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite enables a view of the sea surface from which the effects of tropical cyclones on sea surface emissivity can be measured. The emissivity at these frequencies is a function of sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface roughness, polarization, and angle of emission. If the latter four variables can be estimated, then models of the sea surface emissivity can be used to invert SSS from measured brightness temperature (TB). Actual measured TB from space also has affects due to the ionosphere and troposphere, which have to be compensated for, and components due to the galactic and cosmic background radiation those have to be removed. In this research, we study the relationships between retrieved SSS from MIRAS, and SST and precipitation collected by the NASA TMI sensor from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during Hurricane Isaac, in August 2012. During the slower movement of the storm, just before landfall on the vicinity of the Louisiana Shelf, higher precipitation amounts were associated with lower SSS and slightly increased SST. This increased trend of SST and lower SSS under regions of high precipitation are indicative of inhibited vertical mixing. The SMOS Level 2 SSS were filtered by a stepwise process with removal of high uncertainty in TB under conditions of strong surface roughness which are known to create noise. The signature of increased SST associated with increasing precipitation was associated with decreased SSS during the storm. Although further research is required, this study shows that there is a TB signal from the sea surface beneath a tropical cyclone that provides information on roughness and salinity.

  8. Trade-off between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Nam-Young; Elsner, James B.

    2015-07-01

    Global tropical cyclone climate has been investigated with indicators of frequency, intensity and activity. However, a full understanding of global warming's influence on tropical cyclone climate remains elusive because of the incomplete nature of these indicators. Here we form a complete three-dimensional variability space of tropical cyclone climate where the variabilities are continuously linked and find that global ocean warmth best explains the out-of-phase relationship between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones. In a year with greater ocean warmth, the tropical troposphere is capped by higher pressure anomaly in the middle and upper troposphere even with higher moist static energy anomaly in the lower troposphere, which is thought to inhibit overall tropical cyclone occurrences but lead to greater intensities. A statistical consequence is the trade-off between intensity and frequency. We calculate an average increase in global tropical cyclone intensity of 1.3 m s-1 over the past 30 years of ocean warming occurring at the expense of 6.1 tropical cyclones worldwide.

  9. Cyclone Driven Sediment Loads in a Tropical Mega-River.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darby, Stephen; Leyland, Julian; Hackney, Christopher; Heasley, Eleanore; Kummu, Matti; Lauri, Hannu; Parsons, Daniel; Nicholas, Andrew; Aalto, Rolf; Best, Jim

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the links between environmental change and sediment transport in the mega-rivers that dominate the flux of terrestrial sediment to their deltas and oceans remains a major challenge. Many large river systems display significant seasonality in flow regime, which is affected to a greater or lesser degree by the influence of large tropical storms, which act to increase their variability and thus drive uncertainty in predicting the impacts associated with changes in future flow regimes. Here we demonstrate the significance of tropical storms in driving sediment flux from one of the world's largest rivers, the Mekong, to its delta. Data was collected at Kratie, Cambodia; this being the site of the Mekong's final reliable flow gauging station before the Mekong delta. Suspended sediment fluxes were estimated by calibrating acoustic backscatter returns from an acoustic Doppler current profiler to observed suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) across a monsoon cycle. The retrieved SSCs were combined with flow velocity estimates to recover the sediment flux. These estimates of flux were then used to build sediment rating curves to predict suspended flux as a function of flow discharge. A hydrological model, VMod, was then used to estimate daily discharge values for the same historical period, but for a scenario in which the effects of tropical storms on the flow regime are isolated. This was achieved by forcing the hydrological model with daily precipitation values that account for precipitation anomalies associated with observed tropical storms. The difference in cumulative sediment transport estimated by combining the two flow discharge scenarios with the constructed sediment rating curves allowed the contribution of tropical storms to the Lower Mekong's suspended sediment transport regime to be isolated. It was found that sediment loads in the Mekong River attenuate downstream from approximately 120 MT in Laos and Thailand to ~80-90 MT in the alluvial floodplain reaches of Cambodia. Furthermore, it is shown that the proportion of flux generated from tropical cyclones increases downstream and dominates (~60%) the flux observed around the confluence of the 3S basin (the Se San, Sre Pok and Se Kong Rivers) which drains the Vietnamese highlands. This implies future changes in cyclone tracks may impact upon sediment delivery to the Mekong delta.

  10. Mediterranean Tropical-like Cyclones: Present and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavicchia, Leone; von Storch, Hans; Gualdi, Silvio

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean basin is characterized by the genesis of a large number of cyclonic systems. Most of the cyclones generated in this area have a baroclinic nature. A few storms every year, however, develop a dynamical evolution similar to the one of tropical cyclones, showing an axis-symmetric vertical profile, a warm core, a cloud-free eye surrounded by a cloud cover with spiral shape, and winds up to the hurricane speed. The strongest between such storms exhibit a striking resemblance to the lower-latitudes hurricanes, except for the mesoscale spatial extent, and have thus been termed medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes). Medicanes are considered rare phenomena, - the number of observed cases documented in the literature is around ten - but are associated to severe damage on coastal areas. Due to the scarcity of observations over sea, and to the coarse resolution of the long-term reanalysis datasets, it is difficult to construct a homogeneous statistics of the formation of medicanes. Using an approach (tested on a number of historical medicane cases) based on the high-resolution dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and exploiting an objective detection algorithm specifically designed to single out the features of medicanes, the statistical properties of such storms (annual cycle, decadal and inter-annual variability, geographical distribution, trends) over the last six decades have been studied in a systematic way, and the linkage between the frequency of medicanes formation and synoptic patterns has been investigated. It was found that medicanes occur indeed with a low frequency, and that they are formed mostly during the cold season in the western Mediterranean and in the region extending between the Ionian Sea and the northern coast of Africa. The analysis of the environmental factors related with the formation of medicanes shows that the genesis mechanism requires a sufficiently large difference between the sea surface temperature and the temperature in the upper atmospheric layers, in order to increase the atmospheric instability. A low wind shear, high moisture content, and high low-level vorticity are all factors that favor the development of medicanes. Applying the same downscaling procedure to the atmospheric fields produced by a global model, forced with the greenhouse gas concentration prescribed in different future climate scenarios, the impact of climate change on the statistics of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones is estimated. It is found that in the last three decades of the current century, the frequency of mesoscale Mediterranean storms showing tropical-like features is projected to decrease. On the other hand, the percentage of such storms reaching a high intensity shows a tendency towards a moderate increase. References: - Cavicchia L, von Storch H: The simulation of medicanes in a high-resolution regional climate model. Clim. Dyn. 39:2273-2290 (2012) - Cavicchia L, von Storch H, Gualdi S: A long-term climatology of medicanes. Clim. Dyn. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1893-7 (2013) - Cavicchia L, Gualdi S, von Storch H: Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones: present and future, in preparation.

  11. Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors using GDAPS (UM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, D.; Kim, J.; Chang, K.; Byun, K.; Lee, J.

    2013-12-01

    After the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began issuing official five-day tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in 2003, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) started issuing official five-day forecasts of TCs in May 2012 after 2 year of beta test. Forming a selective consensus (SCON) by proper removal of a likely erroneous track forecast is hypothesized to be more accurate than the non-selective consensus (NCON) of all model tracks that are used for the five-day forecasts. Conceptual models describing large track error mechanisms, which are related to known tropical cyclone motion processes being misrepresented in the dynamical models, are applied to forecasts during the 2012 western North Pacific typhoon season by the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS (UM N512 L70)) which is KMA's main operational model. GDAPS (UM) is one of consensus members used in making KMA's five-day forecasts and thus analysis of its track error tendencies would be useful for forming a SCON forecast. All 72-h track errors greater than 320 km are examined on the basis of the approach developed by Carr and Elsberry (2000a, b). Tropical-influenced error sources caused 37% (47 times / 126 erroneous forecasts) of the GDAPS (UM) large track forecast errors primarily because an incorrect beta effect-related process depicted by the model contributed to the erroneous forecasts. Midlatitude-influenced error sources accounted for 63% (79 times / 126 error cases) in the GDAPS (UM) erroneous forecasts mainly due to an incorrect forecast of the midlatitude system evolutions. It is proposed that KMA will be able to issue more reliable TC track information if a likely model track error is recognized by optimum use of conceptual models by Carr and Elsberry (2000a, b) and a selective consensus track is then the basis for an improved warning.

  12. Impacts of Tropical Cyclones and Accompanying Precipitation on Infectious Diarrhea in Cyclone Landing Areas of Zhejiang Province, China

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Zhengyi; Xun, Huanmiao; Zhou, Maigeng; Jiang, Baofa; Wang, Songwang; Guo, Qing; Wang, Wei; Kang, Ruihua; Wang, Xin; Marley, Gifty; Ma, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Background: Zhejiang Province, located in southeastern China, is frequently hit by tropical cyclones. This study quantified the associations between infectious diarrhea and the seven tropical cyclones that landed in Zhejiang from 2005–2011 to assess the impacts of the accompanying precipitation on the studied diseases. Method: A unidirectional case-crossover study design was used to evaluate the impacts of tropical storms and typhoons on infectious diarrhea. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: For all typhoons studied, the greatest impacts on bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea were identified on lag 6 days (OR = 2.30, 95% CI: 1.81–2.93) and lag 5 days (OR = 3.56, 95% CI: 2.98–4.25), respectively. For all tropical storms, impacts on these diseases were highest on lag 2 days (OR = 2.47, 95% CI: 1.41–4.33) and lag 6 days (OR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.69–3.56), respectively. The tropical cyclone precipitation was a risk factor for both bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea when daily precipitation reached 25 mm and 50 mm with the largest OR = 3.25 (95% CI: 1.45–7.27) and OR = 3.05 (95% CI: 2.20–4.23), respectively. Conclusions: Both typhoons and tropical storms could contribute to an increase in risk of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea in Zhejiang. Tropical cyclone precipitation may also be a risk factor for these diseases when it reaches or is above 25 mm and 50 mm, respectively. Public health preventive and intervention measures should consider the adverse health impacts from tropical cyclones. PMID:25622139

  13. Testing coral-based tropical cyclone reconstructions: An example from Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilbourne, K. Halimeda; Moyer, Ryan P.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Grottoli, Andrea G.

    2011-01-01

    Complimenting modern records of tropical cyclone activity with longer historical and paleoclimatological records would increase our understanding of natural tropical cyclone variability on decadal to centennial time scales. Tropical cyclones produce large amounts of precipitation with significantly lower δ18O values than normal precipitation, and hence may be geochemically identifiable as negative δ18O anomalies in marine carbonate δ18O records. This study investigates the usefulness of coral skeletal δ18O as a means of reconstructing past tropical cyclone events. Isotopic modeling of rainfall mixing with seawater shows that detecting an isotopic signal from a tropical cyclone in a coral requires a salinity of ~ 33 psu at the time of coral growth, but this threshold is dependent on the isotopic composition of both fresh and saline end-members. A comparison between coral δ18O and historical records of tropical cyclone activity, river discharge, and precipitation from multiple sites in Puerto Rico shows that tropical cyclones are not distinguishable in the coral record from normal rainfall using this approach at these sites.

  14. The impact of the diurnal insolation cycle on the tropical cyclone heat engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Morgan E.; Perez-Betancourt, Diamilet; Wing, Allison A.

    A hurricane, or tropical cyclone, is understood as a heat engine that moves heat from the warm sea surface to the cold tropopause. The efficiency of this engine depends in part on the strength and duration of solar heating. Over land, peak rainfall associated with individual thunderstorms occurs in the late afternoon. Over ocean, with its markedly higher surface heat capacity, deep convection responds more to radiational cooling than daytime surface heating. However, the role of daily varying solar forcing on the dynamics of tropical cyclones is poorly understood. Recently, Dunion et al. (2014) reported significant, repeating diurnal behavior propagating outward from tropical cyclone centers, using infrared imagery from nine years of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. We study the impact of the diurnal cycle on tropical cyclones using a high resolution 3D numerical model, the System for Atmospheric Modeling (Khairoutdinov and Randall 2003). Simulations are run with and without variable sunlight. We are able to reproduce the observational finding of Dunion et al. (2014), and further identify a diurnally-varying residual circulation in the tropical cyclone at midlevels. The impact of the diurnal cycle on the equilibrium dynamics of tropical cyclones is also discussed.

  15. An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane Season

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.

  16. A Study of Cyclones and Anti-Cyclones in Jupiter's North Tropical Zone, 2003-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penprase, Bryan E.; Marsh, Franklin M.

    2014-11-01

    We have examined ground and space-based data from Jupiter's Northern Equatorial Belt and North Tropical Zone to characterize drift rates and statistics of cyclones and anti-cyclones. Ground-based positional data on the storms comes from the JUPOS database, maintained by the JUPOS team. Over 2,000 observations of 80 storms in the 2003-2013 time period were used to characterize trends in both latitudinal and longitudinal position, and velocity over time. We found that after the year of 2009, the dark storms in the 15-16N latitude band were forming further south than before. We hypothesize that small changes in the differential zonal wind caused this new, southerly zone to be favored. Because these storms form in an area of lower zonal wind speed, they also drift at a slower velocity relative to system III. Additionally, By comparing our analysis of JUPOS observations to Hubble and Cassini measurements of wind speed, we were able to characterize the relationship between storm size and storm velocity and a fraction of the zonal flow, and build an empirical model useful for predicting jovian storms in the future.

  17. Global Losses and Declining Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narita, D.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    Approach An extreme environmental event may generate different losses for different societies. If the physical exposure to an event is held fixed, then the magnitude of a society's loss defines its vulnerability to that event. Competing hypotheses suggest that social and economic developments could make vulnerability rise or fall over time, but previous studies have been unable to reject either hypothesis because they lacked accurate data on societies' physical exposure to extreme events. We address this problem for a specific type of event by reconstructing the exposure of 233 countries to every tropical cyclone (TC) on the planet between 1950 and 2008 in making use of the Limited Information Cyclone Reconstruction and Integration for Climate and Economics (LICRICE) model [Hsiang, 2010]. By filling a critical data gap, this reconstruction enables us to compare how revenue losses, damages, and deaths from physically similar events change over time. Our approach contrasts with a large literature, which relies almost exclusively on self-reporting data of TC damages compiled by the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)[OFDA/CRED, 2009]. Results On a global scale, we find that populations rapidly mitigate certain TC risks, reducing their reported damages from a TC of low intensity by a remarkable 9.4% yr-1 and death rates by 5.1% yr-1 (Figure 1). However, these rapid reductions in vulnerability are not evident for the highest intensity TCs and lost agricultural revenues, which are more difficult to observe than deaths or damages, exhibit non-declining vulnerability for events of all intensities. Because the vulnerability of agriculture has remained high while vulnerability to damages has declined rapidly, our results indicate that lost agricultural revenues have dominated TC losses ever since ˜1990. References Hsiang, S. M. (2010). Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(35):15367-15372. OFDA/CRED (2009). The International Disaster Database.

  18. Do Tropical Cyclones Shape Shorebird Habitat Patterns? Biogeoclimatology of Snowy Plovers in Florida

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Elsner, James B.; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Kiker, Gregory A.; Martinez, Christopher J.; Fischer, Richard A.; Linkov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Background The Gulf coastal ecosystems in Florida are foci of the highest species richness of imperiled shoreline dependent birds in the USA. However environmental processes that affect their macroecological patterns, like occupancy and abundance, are not well unraveled. In Florida the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) is resident along northern and western white sandy estuarine/ocean beaches and is considered a state-threatened species. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we show that favorable nesting areas along the Florida Gulf coastline are located in regions impacted relatively more frequently by tropical cyclones. The odds of Snowy Plover nesting in these areas during the spring following a tropical cyclone impact are seven times higher compared to the odds during the spring following a season without a cyclone. The only intensity of a tropical cyclone does not appear to be a significant factor affecting breeding populations. Conclusions/Significance Nevertheless a future climate scenario featuring fewer, but more extreme cyclones could result in a decrease in the breeding Snowy Plover population and its breeding range. This is because the spatio-temporal frequency of cyclone events was found to significantly affect nest abundance. Due to the similar geographic range and habitat suitability, and no decrease in nest abundance of other shorebirds in Florida after the cyclone season, our results suggest a common bioclimatic feedback between shorebird abundance and tropical cyclones in breeding areas which are affected by cyclones. PMID:21264268

  19. Decadal Trends of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones (1950-1999)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2001-01-01

    Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for 'named storms,' tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin suggest that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity, marked by seasonal rates typically equal to or above respective long-term median rates. As an example, the 10-year moving average of the seasonal rates for named storms is now higher than for any previous year over the past 50 years, measuring 10.65 in 1994, or 2.65 units higher than its median rate of 8. Also, the 10-year moving average for tropical storms has more than doubled, from 2.15 in 1955 to 4.60 in 1992, with 16 of the past 20 years having a seasonal rate of three or more (the median rate). For hurricanes and major hurricanes, their respective 10-year moving averages turned upward, rising above long-term median rates (5.5 and 2, respectively) in 1992, a response to the abrupt increase in seasonal rates that occurred in 1995. Taken together, the outlook for future hurricane seasons is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above long-term median rates, especially during non-El Nino-related seasons. Only during El Nino-related seasons does it appear likely that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

  20. Origin of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones activity in the South Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Marchesiello, Patrick; Menkes, Christophe E.; Lefvre, Jrome; Vincent, Emmanuel M.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Chauvin, Fabrice

    2010-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF, Skamarock et al., 2005) is used at 1/3 (150 km effective) resolution to simulate the statistics of tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific. Our first aim is to realistically represent the climatological conditions favorable to tropical cyclone genesis, in particular the characteristics of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). This is achieved by selecting a subgrid-scale convective parametrization. In addition to the large-scale conditions, the model is shown to reproduce a wide range of mesoscale convective systems. Tropical cyclones grow from the most intense of these systems formed along SPCZ lines of strengthened convergence and sometimes develop into hurricanes with surface winds of up to 45 m.s-1. The 3-dimensional structure of simulated tropical cyclones is in remarkable agreement with dropsondes and satellite observations. The mean seasonal and spatial distributions of tropical cyclone genesis and occurrence are also in relatively good agreement with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center data. We note however that the spatial pattern of tropical cyclone genesis exhibits a similar bias as the large scale forcing. Previous work have shown that the seasonal frequency of tropical cyclone genesis at any location is closely related to large scale environmental parameters (Gray, 1979; Royer et al., 1998; Camargo et al., 2007). However, large scale conditions are not sufficient and triggering mechanisms are also needed. Indeed, interactions of mesoscale convective systems play a crucial role in tropical cyclone genesis once the large scales have been established (Simpson et al., 1997). Our objective is to estimate the part of tropical cyclone genesis interannual variability that is related to large scale environmental parameters, and the part that is due to mesoscale interactions that are stochastic in nature. We use a 10-member ensemble WRF experiment, genesis indices, and ENSO (El Nio southern oscillation) and SPCZ indices to get such an estimate in the South Pacific.

  1. Avoided Impacts in Ensembles of Tropical Cyclone Damage Potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Done, J.; Paimazumder, D.; Holland, G. J.; Towler, E.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter current levels of Tropical Cyclone (TC) damage, yet the degree of change and its importance relative to changes in exposure and vulnerability are debated. This study isolates the climate drivers of TC damage and develops an approach to translate climate model data directly to a measure of Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP). The actual damage then depends on a given user's impacted exposure and vulnerability. Our approach is motivated by recent work that highlighted the importance of accounting for TC size and TC translation speed in addition to maximum wind speed in driving TC damage. Since coarse resolution climate models are not able to adequately capture many TC characteristics, these key damaging parameters are modeled in terms of large-scale climate variables, to sidestep the need for information on individual TCs and to enable assessments of CDP directly from large-scale climate model data. The CDP is applied to ensembles of future climates generated under a range of anthropogenic forcing scenarios to assess the degree of avoided CDP under lower emission pathways. Users may then translate avoided CDP to avoided losses using relationships between CDP and their specific exposure and vulnerability characteristics.

  2. Convective Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Formation as Revealed by TRMM PR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritz, C.; Wang, Z.

    2014-12-01

    To understand the convective evolution during tropical cyclone formation, cloud features for more than 200 named tropical cyclones over the Atlantic and East Pacific are examined from the tropical wave to the tropical cyclone stage using the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The echo top height of the 20-dBZ radar reflectivity is used in combination with the near surface rain rate to identify the different types of convection: i) shallow cumuli; ii) cumulus congestus and iii) deep convection. The frequency of occurrence for each convective type is calculated 24, 48 and 72 hours before genesis, and the relative contributions of different types of convection to the total rain rate are examined at various radii with respect to the pouch center. The implication of these findings for a recently proposed conceptual model for tropical cyclone formation will be discussed.

  3. Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

  4. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

    2006-01-01

    The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very different from our current assessments, which were mainly based on the thermodynamic theory of tropical cyclone intensity.

  5. A numerical investigation of supercells in landfalling tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, M. J.; Parker, M. D.

    2011-05-01

    Supercell thunderstorms are known to occur in the outer rainbands of tropical cyclones (TCs), and these cells are of interest because they are occasionally tornadic. A series of multi-scale quasi-idealized TC simulations are used to study the development of outer rainband supercells. Within the environment of landfalling TCs, the sea-to-land transition of the rainbands is found to locally benefit supercell development onshore due in part to (1) enhanced surface-based destabilization during the day and (2) increased surface friction slowing and backing the low-level winds. Landfall time of day is shown to have a substantial impact on the average number, strength, and lifetime of the ensemble of simulated supercells. These idealized simulations represent a first attempt at controlled hypothesis tests for supercell and tornado ingredients within the context of a highly resolved parent TC.

  6. Differential leaflet mortality may influence biogeochemical cycling following tropical cyclones

    PubMed Central

    Marler, Thomas E; Ferreras, Ulysses

    2014-01-01

    Intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to increase in the coming century, and an improved understanding of their influence on biogeochemical cycles would benefit ecologists and conservationists. We studied the November 2013 Typhoon Haiyan damage to observe that numerous examples of partial leaf necrosis on intact leaves of trees in the Cycadaceae and Arecaceae families resulted, leaving behind a copious amount of arboreal dead leaf material attached to live leaves. The decay process of this form of arboreal litter has not been previously studied. When compared with decay of ground litter or detached litter suspended in the canopy, we predict the decay process of this form of arboreal litter will include increased photooxidation, leaching, and comminution by detritivorous insects and mites; but decreased catabolism of organic molecules by saprophytic organisms. PMID:25083171

  7. Differential leaflet mortality may influence biogeochemical cycling following tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Marler, Thomas E; Ferreras, Ulysses

    2014-01-01

    Intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to increase in the coming century, and an improved understanding of their influence on biogeochemical cycles would benefit ecologists and conservationists. We studied the November 2013 Typhoon Haiyan damage to observe that numerous examples of partial leaf necrosis on intact leaves of trees in the Cycadaceae and Arecaceae families resulted, leaving behind a copious amount of arboreal dead leaf material attached to live leaves. The decay process of this form of arboreal litter has not been previously studied. When compared with decay of ground litter or detached litter suspended in the canopy, we predict the decay process of this form of arboreal litter will include increased photooxidation, leaching, and comminution by detritivorous insects and mites; but decreased catabolism of organic molecules by saprophytic organisms. PMID:25083171

  8. Jason Tracks Powerful Tropical Cyclone Gonu's High Winds, Waves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Wind Speed Wave Height Click on images for larger versions

    This pair of images from the radar altimeter instrument on the U.S./France Jason mission reveals information on wind speeds and wave heights of Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which reached Category 5 strength in the Arabian Sea prior to landfall in early June 2007. Strong winds near 20 meters per second and wave heights of greater than 5 meters were recorded. These high waves are extremely rare in the Arabian Sea and exacerbated heavy flooding from the storm surge over much of the Oman coastline.

    The U.S. portion of the Jason mission is managed by JPL for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C. Research on Earth's oceans using Jason and other space-based capabilities is conducted by NASA's Science Mission Directorate to better understand and protect our home planet.

  9. Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity.

    PubMed

    Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K; Sobel, Adam H; Camargo, Suzana J

    2016-01-01

    The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology. PMID:26838056

  10. Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.

    2016-02-01

    The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology.

  11. Tropical cyclones in ERA-40: A detection and tracking method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleppek, S.; Muccione, V.; Raible, C. C.; Bresch, D. N.; Koellner-Heck, P.; Stocker, T. F.

    2008-05-01

    A tracking method for tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented and their characteristics for data sets with a lower horizontal resolution, e.g., the ERA-40 Reanalysis data set from 1958 to 2001 are explored. The tracking method uses sea level pressure, relative vorticity and wind speed at 850 hPa, and vertical wind shear. The method, assessed in the Atlantic basin, identifies a realistic number of TCs. However, the ERA-40 TCs compared with best track data from the U.S. National Hurricane Center are too weak to reach hurricane character, i.e., the tracked TCs do not show hurricanes of category three to five. Another caveat is that the life cycle of central pressure values is often not realistically reproduced by ERA-40 TCs. To correct the life cycle of the central pressure, a two-step statistical downscaling approach is applied to the ERA-40 TCs which strongly improves the finding of major hurricanes.

  12. Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.

    2016-01-01

    The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology. PMID:26838056

  13. North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity in Relation to Temperature and Decadal- Length Oscillation Patterns

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2009-01-01

    Yearly frequencies of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, their locations of origin, peak wind speeds, average peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and average lowest pressures for the interval 1950-2008 are examined. The effects of El Nino and La Nina on the tropical cyclone parametric values are investigated. Yearly and 10-year moving average (10-yma) values of tropical cyclone parameters are compared against those of temperature and decadal-length oscillation, employing both linear and bi-variate analysis, and first differences in the 10-yma are determined. Discussion of the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season, updating earlier results, is given.

  14. Tropical cyclone flow asymmetries induced by a uniform flow revisited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomsen, Gerald L.; Smith, Roger K.; Montgomery, Michael T.

    2015-09-01

    We investigate the hypothesized effects of a uniform flow on the structural evolution of a tropical cyclone using a simple idealized, three-dimensional, convection-permitting, numerical model. The study addresses three outstanding basic questions concerning the effects of moist convection on the azimuthal flow asymmetries and provides a bridge between the problem of tropical cyclone intensification in a quiescent environment and that in vertical shear over a deep tropospheric layer. At any instant of time, explicit deep convection in the model generates flow asymmetries that tend to mask the induced flow asymmetries predicted by the dry, slab boundary layer model of Shapiro, whose results are frequently invoked as a benchmark for characterizing the boundary layer-induced vertical motion for a translating storm. In sets of ensemble experiments in which the initial low-level moisture field is randomly perturbed, time-averaged ensemble mean fields in the mature stage show a coherent asymmetry in the vertical motion rising into the eyewall and in the total (horizontal) wind speed just above the boundary layer. The maximum ascent occurs about 45° to the left of the vortex motion vector, broadly in support of Shapiro's results, in which it occurs ahead of the storm, and consistent with one earlier more complex numerical calculation by Frank and Ritchie. The total wind asymmetry just above the boundary layer has a maximum in the forward right sector, which is in contrast to the structure effectively prescribed by Shapiro based on an inviscid dry symmetric vortex translating in a uniform flow where, in an Earth-relative frame, the maximum is on the right.

  15. Tropical cyclone cooling combats region-wide coral bleaching.

    PubMed

    Carrigan, Adam D; Puotinen, Marji

    2014-05-01

    Coral bleaching has become more frequent and widespread as a result of rising sea surface temperature (SST). During a regional scale SST anomaly, reef exposure to thermal stress is patchy in part due to physical factors that reduce SST to provide thermal refuge. Tropical cyclones (TCs - hurricanes, typhoons) can induce temperature drops at spatial scales comparable to that of the SST anomaly itself. Such cyclone cooling can mitigate bleaching across broad areas when well-timed and appropriately located, yet the spatial and temporal prevalence of this phenomenon has not been quantified. Here, satellite SST and historical TC data are used to reconstruct cool wakes (n=46) across the Caribbean during two active TC seasons (2005 and 2010) where high thermal stress was widespread. Upon comparison of these datasets with thermal stress data from Coral Reef Watch and published accounts of bleaching, it is evident that TC cooling reduced thermal stress at a region-wide scale. The results show that during a mass bleaching event, TC cooling reduced thermal stress below critical levels to potentially mitigate bleaching at some reefs, and interrupted natural warming cycles to slow the build-up of thermal stress at others. Furthermore, reconstructed TC wave damage zones suggest that it was rare for more reef area to be damaged by waves than was cooled (only 12% of TCs). Extending the time series back to 1985 (n = 314), we estimate that for the recent period of enhanced TC activity (1995-2010), the annual probability that cooling and thermal stress co-occur is as high as 31% at some reefs. Quantifying such probabilities across the other tropical regions where both coral reefs and TCs exist is vital for improving our understanding of how reef exposure to rising SSTs may vary, and contributes to a basis for targeting reef conservation. PMID:24474700

  16. Developing an enhanced tropical cyclone data portal for the Southern Hemisphere and the Western Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuleshov, Yuriy; de Wit, Roald; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Kunitsugu, Masashi; Caroff, Philippe; Chane-Ming, Fabrice

    2013-04-01

    Tropical cyclones are the most extreme weather phenomena which severely impact coastal communities and island nations. There is an ongoing research (i) on accurate analysis of observed trends in tropical cyclone occurrences, and (ii) how tropical cyclone frequency and intensity may change in the future as a result of climate change. Reliable historical records of cyclone activity are vital for this research. The Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program is dedicated to help Pacific Island countries and Timor Leste gain a better understanding of how climate change will impact their regions. One of the key PACCSAP projects is focused on developing a tropical cyclone archive, climatology and seasonal prediction for the regions. As part of the project, historical tropical cyclone best track data have been examined and prepared to be subsequently displayed through the enhanced tropical cyclone data portal for the Southern Hemisphere and the Western Pacific Ocean. Data from the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Nadi, Fiji and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) in Brisbane, Darwin and Wellington for 1969-1970 to 2010-2011 tropical cyclone seasons have been carefully examined. Errors and inconsistencies which have been found during the quality control procedure have been corrected. To produce a consolidated data set for the South Pacific Ocean, best track data from these four centres have been used. Specifically, for 1969-1970 to 1994-1995 tropical cyclone seasons, data from TCWCs in Brisbane, Darwin and Wellington have been used. In 1995, RSMC Nadi, Fiji has been established with responsibilities for issuing tropical cyclone warnings and preparing best track data for the area south of the equator to 25°S, 160°E to 120°W. Consequently, data from RSMC Nadi have been used as a primary source for this area, starting from the 1995-1996 tropical cyclone season. These data have been combined with the data from TCWC Wellington for the area 25°S to 40°S, 160°E to 120°W and with the data from TCWCs in Brisbane and Darwin for the area south of the equator to 37°S, 135°E to 160°E. In addition, tropical cyclone best track data for the North-West Pacific for 1977-2011 seasons prepared at RSMC Tokyo and for the South Indian Ocean for 1969-2011 prepared at RSMC la Réunion have been added to the dataset. As a result, new design of the Southern Hemisphere/Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/) incorporates best track data for the Western Pacific both south and north of the equator and for the South Indian Ocean. The portal has been developed using the OpenLayers web mapping library. Main features of the portal include dynamic map navigation, presenting detailed cyclone information for a selected region in the Southern Hemisphere and North-West Pacific and displaying changes in tropical cyclone intensity over the lifetime of a cyclone. One of the unique features of the portal is its enhanced functionality for spatial and temporal selection for cyclones in selected areas (e.g. economic exclusion zones of the countries). Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted through the PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. We acknowledge C. Shamsu, D. Duong, P. Lopatecki, W. Banerjee, P. He, P. Wickramasinghe and A. Bauers from the School of Computer Sciences and IT at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Australia for their contribution to the development of the portal's functionality on spatial selection.

  17. The Impact of Dry Saharan Air on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braun, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    The controversial role of the dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) on tropical storm intensification in the Atlantic will be addressed. The SAL has been argued in previous studies to have potential positive influences on storm development, but most recent studies have argued for a strong suppressing influence on storm intensification as a result of dry air, high stability, increased vertical wind shear, and microphysical impacts of dust. Here, we focus on observations of Hurricane Helene (2006), which occurred during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (NAMMA) experiment. Satellite and airborne observations, combined with global meteorological analyses depict the initial environment of Helene as being dominated by the SAL, although with minimal evidence that the SAL air actually penetrated to the core of the disturbance. Over the next several days, the SAL air quickly moved westward and was gradually replaced by a very dry, dust-free layer associated with subsidence. Despite the wrapping of this very dry air around the storm, Helene intensified steadily to a Category 3 hurricane suggesting that the dry air was unable to significantly slow storm intensification. Several uncertainties remain about the role of the SAL in Helene (and in tropical cyclones in general). To better address these uncertainties, NASA will be conducting a three year airborne campaign called the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3). The HS3 objectives are: To obtain critical measurements in the hurricane environment in order to identify the role of key factors such as large-scale wind systems (troughs, jet streams), Saharan air masses, African Easterly Waves and their embedded critical layers (that help to isolate tropical disturbances from hostile environments). To observe and understand the three-dimensional mesoscale and convective-scale internal structures of tropical disturbances and cyclones and their role in intensity change. The mission objectives will be achieved using two Global Hawk (GH) Unmanned Airborne Systems (UASs) with separate comprehensive environmental and over-storm payloads. The GH flight altitudes (>16.8 km) allow overflights of most convection and sampling of upper-tropospheric winds. Deployments from Goddard s Wallops Flight Facility and 26-hour flight durations will provide coverage of the entire Atlantic Ocean basin, and on-station times up to 5-22 h depending on storm location. Deployments will be in September of 2012 and from late-August to late- September 2013-2014, with up to eleven 26-h flights per deployment.

  18. Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols.

    PubMed

    Evan, Amato T; Kossin, James P; Chung, Chul Eddy; Ramanathan, V

    2011-11-01

    Throughout the year, average sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea are warm enough to support the development of tropical cyclones, but the atmospheric monsoon circulation and associated strong vertical wind shear limits cyclone development and intensification, only permitting a pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period for cyclogenesis. Thus a recent increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean is thought to be related to the weakening of the climatological vertical wind shear. At the same time, anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased sixfold since the 1930s, leading to a weakening of the southwesterly lower-level and easterly upper-level winds that define the monsoonal circulation over the Arabian Sea. In principle, this aerosol-driven circulation modification could affect tropical cyclone intensity over the Arabian Sea, but so far no such linkage has been shown. Here we report an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the period 1979-2010, and show that this change in storm strength is a consequence of a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions. We use a combination of observational, reanalysis and model data to demonstrate that the anomalous circulation, which is radiatively forced by these anthropogenic aerosols, reduces the basin-wide vertical wind shear, creating an environment more favourable for tropical cyclone intensification. Because most Arabian Sea tropical cyclones make landfall, our results suggest an additional impact on human health from regional air pollution. PMID:22051678

  19. A satellite observational and numerical study of precipitation characteristics in western North Atlantic tropical cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Chang, Simon W.; Pierce, Harold F.

    1994-01-01

    Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) observations were used to examine the spatial and temporal changes of the precipitation characteristics of tropical cyclones. SSM/I observations were also combined with the results of a tropical cyclone numerical model to examine the role of inner-core diabatic heating in subsequent intensity changes of tropical cyclones. Included in the SSM/I observations were rainfall characteristics of 18 named western North Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1987 and 1989. The SSM/I rain-rate algorithm that employed the 85-GHz channel provided an analysis of the rain-rate distribution in greater detail. However, the SSM/I algorithm underestimated the rain rates when compared to in situ techniques but appeared to be comparable to the rain rates obtained from other satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers. The analysis of SSM/I observations found that more intense systems had higher rain rates, more latent heat release, and a greater contribution from heavier rain to the total tropical cyclone rainfall. In addition, regions with the heaviest rain rates were found near the center of the most intense tropical cyclones. Observational analysis from SSM/I also revealed that the greatest rain rates in the inner-core regions were found in the right half of fast-moving cyclones, while the heaviest rain rates in slow-moving tropical cyclones were found in the forward half. The combination of SSM/I observations and an interpretation of numerical model simulations revealed that the correlation between changes in the inner core diabetic heating and the subsequent intensity became greater as the tropical cyclones became more intense.

  20. Effect of tropical cyclones on the tropical tropopause parameters observed using COSMIC GPS RO data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babu, S. Ravindra; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Basha, G.; Krishnamurthy, B. V.; Venkateswararao, B.

    2015-09-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are deep convective synoptic-scale systems that play an important role in modifying the thermal structure, tropical tropopause parameters and hence also modify stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) processes. In the present study, high vertical resolution and high accuracy measurements from COSMIC Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) measurements are used to investigate and quantify the effect of tropical cyclones that occurred over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea in the last decade on the tropical tropopause parameters. The tropopause parameters include cold-point tropopause altitude (CPH) and temperature (CPT), lapse-rate tropopause altitude (LRH) and temperature (LRT) and the thickness of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), that is defined as the layer between convective outflow level (COH) and CPH, obtained from GPS RO data. From all the TC events, we generate the mean cyclone-centred composite structure for the tropopause parameters and removed it from the climatological mean obtained from averaging the GPS RO data from 2002 to 2013. Since the TCs include eye, eye walls and deep convective bands, we obtained the tropopause parameters based on radial distance from the cyclone eye. In general, decrease in the CPH in the eye is noticed as expected. However, as the distance from the cyclone eye increases by 300, 400, and 500 km, an enhancement in CPH (CPT) and LRH (LRT) is observed. Lowering of CPH (0.6 km) and LRH (0.4 km) values with coldest CPT and LRT (2-3 K) within a 500 km radius of the TC centre is noticed. Higher (2 km) COH leading to the lowering of TTL thickness (2-3 km) is clearly observed. There are multiple tropopause structures in the profiles of temperature obtained within 100 km from the centre of the TC. These changes in the tropopause parameters are expected to influence the water vapour transport from the troposphere to the lower stratosphere, and ozone from the lower stratosphere to the upper troposphere, hence influencing STE processes.

  1. Impacts of Different Grades of Tropical Cyclones on Infectious Diarrhea in Guangdong, 2005-2011

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ying; Wang, Wei; Wang, Xin; Jiang, Baofa; Ma, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Objective Guangdong province is one of the most vulnerable provinces to tropical cyclones in China. Most prior studies concentrated on the relationship between tropical cyclones and injuries and mortality. This study aimed to explore the impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones on infectious diarrhea incidence in Guangdong province, from 2005 to 2011. Methods Mann-Whitney U test was firstly used to examine if infectious diarrhea were sensitive to tropical cyclone. Then unidirectional 1:1 case-crossover design was performed to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between daily number of infectious diarrhea and tropical cyclone from 2005 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results There were no significant relationships between tropical cyclone and bacillary dysentery, amebic dysentery, typhoid, and paratyphoid cases. Infectious diarrhea other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid significantly increased after tropical cyclones. The strongest effect were shown on lag 1 day (HRs = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.22, 3.12) and no lagged effect was detected for tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm and typhoon, with the largest HRs (95%CI) of 2.16 (95%CI = 1.69, 2.76), 2.43 (95%CI = 1.65, 3.58) and 2.21 (95%CI = 1.65, 2.69), respectively. Among children below 5 years old, the impacts of all grades of tropical cyclones were strongest at lag 0 day. And HRs were 2.67 (95%CI = 1.10, 6.48), 2.49 (95%CI = 1.80, 3.44), 4.89 (95%CI = 2.37, 7.37) and 3.18 (95%CI = 2.10, 4.81), respectively. Conclusion All grades of tropical cyclones could increase risk of other infectious diarrhea. Severe tropical storm has the strongest influence on other infectious diarrhea. The impacts of tropical cyclones on children under 5 years old were higher than total population. PMID:26106882

  2. Is there any long-term memory effect in the tropical cyclones?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varotsos, Costas A.; Efstathiou, Maria N.

    2013-11-01

    The investigation of the intrinsic properties of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic, during 1870-2006, is herewith attempted. The motivation behind this exploration is to contribute to the current understanding about the dynamics of these disastrous events, as tropical cyclones create destructive impacts for people living around tropical areas. The analytical tool used is the detrended fluctuation analysis, and the exponent obtained reveals that the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic obeys the classical random walk (white noise). In other words, the number of tropical cyclones seems to exhibit neither persistent nor antipersistent behavior. The reliability of the lack of scaling dependence in the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count is confirmed, by applying error bounds statistics and studying the decay of the autocorrelation function (i.e., not rejected exponential decay) and the variability of local slopes (i.e., lack of constancy in a sufficient range). In addition, the fact that the series used is fractional Gaussian noise depicts that the results obtained are reliable, despite the fact that the available data set is still limited. The indication of a nearly white noise signal in the tropical cyclone count fluctuations does not suggest that the climate change phenomenon does not exist.

  3. Tropical Cyclone rainfall changes in a warmer climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scoccimarro, Enrico; Villarini, Gabriele; Gualdi, Silvio; Navarra, Antonio; Vecchi, Gabriel; Walsh, Kevin; Zhao, Ming

    2015-04-01

    Possible changes in the intensity of rainfall events associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated under idealized forcing scenarios, with a special focus on landfalling storms. A new set of experiments designed within the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group allows disentangling the relative role of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide from that played by sea surface temperature (SST) in changing the amount of rainfall associated with TCs in a warmer world. Compared to the present day simulation, we found an increase in TC rainfall under the scenarios involving SST increases. On the other hand, in a CO2 doubling-only scenario, the changes in TC rainfall are small and we found that, on average, TC rainfall tends to decrease compared to the present day climate. The results of this study highlight the contribution of landfalling TCs to the projected increase in the rainfall changes affecting the tropical coastal regions. Scenarios involving SST increases, project a TC rainfall strengthening more evident over land than over ocean. This is linked to the increased lifting effect on the landfalling TCs, induced by an increased instability of the atmospheric column along the coastal regions in a warmer climate.

  4. Tropical Cyclones: Forecasting Advances, Science Opportunities and Operational Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bosart, L. F.

    2014-12-01

    Although skill in forecasting the tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) by operational forecast centers have improved steadily over the last 25 years, corresponding forecasts of TC intensity have shown little improvement until recently. These recent improvements in TC intensity forecasts appear to be related to a combination of better data assimilation, improved physics, and increased resolution in global operational numerical weather prediction models and new knowledge gained from a variety of recent TC-related field programs such as BGRIP, IFEX,and PREDICT. The first part of this presentation will briefly review the state of the art of TC track and intensity forecasting. The bulk of this presentation will address important TC-related science and operational challenges. These challenges include: 1) determining the physical processes that govern TC clustering, mutually interacting TCs, and the existence of different TC genesis pathways, 2) establishing how tropical-midlatitude interactions associated with recurving and transitioning (extratropical transition) TCs can trigger downstream baroclinic development, the subsequent formation of eastward-propagating Rossby wave trains, and the ensuing occurrence of extreme weather events well downstream, and 3) identifying critical TC-related forecast problems such as forecasts of the timing and extent of coastal storm surges and inland flooding associated with landfalling TCs). These important science and operational challenges will be illustrated with brief case studies.

  5. Interdecadal variation of Korea affecting tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Ki-Seon; Cha, Yu-Mi; Kang, Sung-Dae; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2015-05-01

    This study analyzed a time series of average central pressure of tropical cyclone (TC) that affected Korea in summer season from 1965 to 2012. To determine whether climate regime shift exists in this time series, statistical change-point analysis was applied to this time series. The result showed that significant climate regime shift existed in 1989, that is, TC intensity from 1965 to 1988 (6588) was weaker than that from 1989 to 2012 (8912). Therefore, an average difference between former and latter periods was analyzed to study large-scale environments, which caused such difference. While TC genesis frequency showed a tendency that TCs in the 6588 period were originated from the northwest quadrant in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, TCs in the 8912 period were originated from the southeast quadrant. Thus, it was judged that TCs in the 6588 were generated at a higher latitude followed by moving to Korea, so their strength was weaker than those of TCs of 8912 due to lack of time to acquire sufficient energy from the sea. For TC passage frequency, TCs in the 6588 period showed a tendency to move a short distance from the sea far away from the southeast in Japan to the sea far away from the northeast in Japan or toward the East China Sea. On the other hand, TCs in the 8912 period moved a longer distance from the sea far away from the Philippines via Japan to the eastern sea of Kamchatka Peninsular or toward the east region in China. As such, an average difference of intensity between the former period and the latter period over the 500-hPa streamline was analyzed to determine why the intensity of TCs in the 6588 period was weaker than that of TCs in the 8912 period. As a result, anomalous cold northerlies from anomalous cyclones based on the northern territory of Japan were predominant, while these anomalous flows were originated from the tropical and subtropical western Pacific followed by moving to Korea, thereby affecting the weakening of the TC intensity. Negative anomaly in 500 and 850 hPa air temperature, 600 hPa relative humidity, precipitable water, and sea surface temperature accounted for most of the analysis between the two periods, thereby forming disadvantageous atmospheric environments for strengthening the TC intensity.

  6. Tropical Cyclones Feed More Heavy Rain in a Warmer Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

    2007-01-01

    The possible linkage of tropical cyclones (TC) to global warming is a hotly debated scientific topic, with immense societal impacts. Most of the debate has been focused on the issue of uncertainty in the use of non-research quality data for long-term trend analyses, especially with regard to TC intensity provided by TC forecasting centers. On the other hand, it is well known that TCs are associated with heavy rain during the processes of genesis and intensification, and that there are growing evidences that rainfall characteristics (not total rainfall) are most likely to be affected by global warming. Yet, satellite rainfall data have not been exploited in any recent studies of linkage between tropical cyclones (TC) and global warming. This is mostly due to the large uncertainties associated with detection of long-term trend in satellite rainfall estimates over the ocean. This problem, as we demonstrate in this paper, can be alleviated by examining rainfall distribution, rather than rainfall total. This paper is the first to use research-quality, satellite-derived rainfall from TRMM and GPCP over the tropical oceans to estimate shift in rainfall distribution during the TC season, and its relationships with TCs, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the two major ocean basins, the northern Atlantic and the northern Pacific for 1979-2005. From the rainfall distribution, we derive the TC contributions to rainfall in various extreme rainfall categories as a function to time. Our results show a definitive trend indicating that TCs are contributing increasingly to heavier rain events, i.e., intense TC's are more frequent in the last 27 years. The TC contribution to top 5% heavy rain has nearly doubled in the last two decades in the North Atlantic, and has increased by about 10% in the North Pacific. The different rate of increase in TC contribution to heavy rain may be related to the different rates of different rate of expansion of the warm pool (SST >2S0 C) area in the two oceans.

  7. NASA GPM Measures Tropical Cyclone 05S (Bohale), Dec. 9 2015 - Duration: 13 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    On Dec. 9, 2015, NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission measured thunderstorm tops reaching heights on Tropical Cyclone 05S (Bohale) above 16.6 km (10.3 miles) near the center of the...

  8. Tropical Cyclone Mahasen Rain Moving Into Bay Of Bengal - Duration: 5 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animated TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis shows the rainfall that occurred with Tropical Cyclone Mahasen during the week of May 6 through 13, 2013 as it moved through the Bay of Beng...

  9. Rainfall Totals from the Tropical Cyclones Passing Over Philippines - Duration: 48 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    Rainfall totals from the TRMM satellite of all tropical cyclones that passed through the Philippines from January through November 11, 2013. Red indicated areas where rainfall totals were greater t...

  10. TRMM Sees Rainfall Totals from Tropical Cyclone Guito - Duration: 6 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animation of rainfall gathered from February 11-19, 2014 by NASA's TRMM satellite revealed that Tropical Cyclone Guito produced as much as 16.9 inches/430 mm of rainfall in the center of the M...

  11. Ocean surface conditions associated to tropical cyclones intensification over American Tropical Seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez Montante, O.; Hernandez Olivares, A.

    2009-05-01

    Following the different cases of Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensification that has been associated to TC-warm ocean feature encounters, it is analyzed here a statistical correlation among both of the satellite surface parameters, SST and SLA, and the triggering of maximum hurricane intensity. Using satellite data of altimetry and SST (Reynolds) and UNYSIS best-track data base of hurricane parameters, Ocean Surface Conditions (OSC) are investigated in relation to intensification of Tropical Cyclone (TC) during the last 15-yr period. The study region of apply is the American tropical seas, which includes Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). In both of the basins, it is systematically identifying the OSC for each hurricane event, which were previously prevailing on the closest presence of the hurricane track at the time registered of their peak intensity. Results indicate a major thermal favorable OSC for the TC intensify on the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea than the ETP. Moreover, SLA seems to be a significant role on boosting the TC intensification, nevertheless about half of the major hurricanes that developed in each of both of the regions appear to have encountered negative anomalies of their prevail OSC. These precedents represent a high complex degree for TC intensification monitoring and forecasting challenge by the only use of OSC tracking by satellite sensoring, but also to deal operatively with TC intensity maintenance.

  12. A quantitative examination of lightning as a predictor of peak winds in tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittaker, Ian C.; Douma, Emma; Rodger, Craig J.; Marshall, Timothy J. C. H.

    2015-05-01

    We use the World Wide Lightning Location Network to investigate lightning strike variations in 8 years of categories 4 and 5 tropical cyclones. A cross-correlation analysis is performed between the lightning and maximum sustained wind variations, giving lag and lead times related to the peak linear correlation for each tropical cyclone. A previous study of 58 cyclones by Price et al. (2009) is reexamined using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship database for the maximum sustained wind speeds of each tropical cyclone showing a moderate to strong correlation between lightning and wind variations. An 8 year data set of 144 tropical cyclones are analyzed in the same way, with a 10° square window, giving similar results to the smaller data set. Using a radial lightning collection window of < 500 km, we confirm the general results of previous studies that lightning can be used on a ˜1 day timescale to predict the evolution of the winds in tropical cyclones. Investigation of different lightning collection window sizes indicates that the lightning lead times are highly dependent upon the window size. Smaller collection windows have modal lightning lead times of ˜2.75 and 0 days, indicating that the lightning location inside the cyclone is as important as the total lightning variation. We have also performed a fixed time lag correlation which shows that preexisting knowledge of what time lag to use is needed in order to use this approach as a predictive tool.

  13. Tropical cyclone/upper-atmospheric interaction as inferred from satellite total ozone observations

    SciTech Connect

    Rodgers, E.B.

    1992-01-01

    The Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) was used to map the distribution of total ozone within and surrounding western North Atlantic and North Pacific tropical cyclones that occurred from 1979-1982. It was found from numerical model simulations and diagnostics and satellite observations that the distribution of total ozone within the subtropical upper-tropospheric waves during the tropical cyclone season corresponded well with the variation of thermodynamic parameters (i.e., temperature, thickness, geopotential heights) near the tropopause and the regions of strong stratospheric and tropospheric exchange processes. These results are similar to previous middle latitudinal observations. It was also found that the three-dimensional transport processes associated with both the western North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclone's outflow jet induced secondary circulation and the strong vertical motions associated with active deep convective and eye regions helped to modify the total ozone distribution that is usually observed within these subtropical upper-tropospheric waves. The tropical cyclone induced modifications of the total ozone in the upper-tropospheric waves became greater as the tropical cyclone became more intense and the three-dimensional transpost processes associated with the outflow jet, convection and eye strengthened. The strong relationship between total ozone distribution and the variation of the tropopause topography, made it possible to use TOMS to monitor the propagation of the subtropical upper-tropospheric waves and the mutual adjustment between tropical cyclones and their upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric environment when these tropical cyclones and the upper-tropospheric waves interacted. These total ozone patterns during tropical cyclone and upper-tropospheric wave interaction reflected the three-dimensional upper-tropospheric transport processes that were conducive for storm intensification, weakening, or recurvature.

  14. Characterization of tropical cyclone rainfall structure using TRMM/TMI.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lonfat, M.; Marks, F. D.; Chen, S. S.

    2003-04-01

    We study the rainfall structure in tropical cyclones (TC) using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). Characterizing the rainfall structure and understanding the physical mechanisms responsible for the rainfall distribution are fundamental steps towards improvement of TC quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). Those steps require the use of extensive datasets with a good resolution, as the spatial variability in TC rainfall is large. TRMM provides global observations with fine enough resolution for such a study. From January 1998 to December 2000, 260 storms developed worldwide, for which TRMM has provided more than 2100 instantaneous observations. In this study, we divide the total database with respect to storm intensity and geographic location, and construct an azimuthal mean rain (R) distribution using 10 km rings around the storm center and a first-order asymmetry, both in a storm motion-relative and in a reference system aligned with the direction of the environmental vertical wind shear. Azimuthal averages of rainfall vary with intensity and with oceanic basin of occurrence. The peak rain rates are about 12 mmh-1, 7 mmh-1 and to 3 mmh-1 for category 3-5, 1-2 and tropical storm intensity, respectively. The rainfall spatial distribution shows significant asymmetry, both with intensity and between oceanic basins. For all 2100 observations averaged together, the rainfall asymmetry is located in front, along the storm motion direction. The asymmetry shifts from front-left to front-right quadrant with TC intensity. In the shear-relative coordinate system, the asymmetry occurs down-shear left. The asymmetry amplitude varies with intensity as well. Larger amplitudes are observed in the shear-relative reference system. TRMM's resolution and coverage allow to draw statistical information concerning the TC asymmetry, that was hard to obtain with previous platforms. This information is of major interest to the QPF issue, as it may help future forecasting methods in predicting the rainfall spatial distribution.

  15. Multi-model GCM ensemble simulations of idealized tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, K. A.; Jablonowski, C.; Ullrich, P. A.; Kent, J.; Lauritzen, P. H.; Taylor, M.; Nair, R.

    2013-12-01

    As General Circulation Models (GCMs) are now capable of running operationally at higher horizontal resolutions than ever before, such models have become a tool of choice for the evaluation of tropical cyclones in current and future climate conditions. GCM horizontal resolutions in the range between 10-50 km are now computationally achievable for seasonal or multi-year simulations and there is growing confidence that high-resolution global models provide reliable representations of many characteristics of tropical storms. However, model design choices are an important source of uncertainty. This is widely documented for physical parameterization suites, but it is less recognized for the dynamical component of models and the physics-dynamics coupling. The study offers a first look into these structural uncertainties. This study focuses on dynamical core model intercomparisons. In particular, it looks at the results of the Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) that took place at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in August 2012. The analysis is focused on the evaluation of an idealized tropical storm and uncertainties triggered by the choice of model dynamical core formulation in various global models. These models include the four dynamical cores available in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model (Finite-Volume (FV), Spectral-Element (SE) and the Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian spectral transform dynamical cores), the NOAA model FIM, the model ICON (Max-Planck Institute and German Weather Service), GFDL's FV3 model on the cubed-sphere grid, ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and the model PUMA from the University of Hamburg.

  16. Beyond Hurricane Sandy: What Might the Future Hold for Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horton, Radley M.; Liu, Jiping

    2014-01-01

    Coastal communities are beginning to understand that sea level rise is projected to dramatically increase the frequency of coastal flooding. However, deep uncertainty remains about how tropical cyclones may change in the future. The North Atlantic has historically been responsible for the majority of global tropical cyclone economic losses, with Hurricane Sandy's approximately USD $70 billion price tag providing a recent example. The North Atlantic has experienced an upward trend in both total tropical cyclones (maximum sustained winds greater than18 m/s) and major hurricanes (maximum sustained winds greater than 50 m/s) in recent decades. While it remains unclear how much of this trend is related to anthropogenic warming, and how tropical cyclone risk may change in the future, the balance of evidence suggests that the strongest hurricanes may become more frequent and intense in the future, and that rainfall associated with tropical cyclones may increase as well. These projections, along with sea level rise and demographic trends, suggest vulnerability to tropical cyclones will increase in the future, thus requiring major coastal adaptation initiatives.

  17. The application of decision tree to intensity change classification of tropical cyclones in western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Wei; Gao, Si; Chen, Bin; Cao, Kai

    2013-05-01

    This study applies the C4.5 algorithm to classify tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in the western North Pacific. The 24 h change in TC intensity (i.e., intensifying and weakening) is regarded as a binary classification problem. A decision tree, with three variables and five leaf nodes, is built by the C4.5 algorithm. The variables include intensification potential (maximum potential intensity minus current intensity), previous 12 h intensity change, and zonal wind shear. All five rules, discovered from the tree by forming a path from the root node to each leaf node, can be interpreted by theories on TC intensification. Data mining results identify a predictor set (i.e., the mined rules) with high classification accuracy. The present study suggests that this data mining approach can shed some light on investigating TC intensity change processes and therefore has the potential to improve the forecasting of TC intensity.

  18. Coal pond fines cleaning with classifying cyclones, spirals, and column flotation

    SciTech Connect

    Carson, W.R.; Arnold, B.J.; Raleigh, C.E. Jr.; Parekh, B.K.

    1997-07-01

    Large reserves of coal pond fines arc found in the Illinois Basin--over 40 million tons in Western Kentucky, over 65 million tons in Southern Illinois, and over 35 million tons in Southern Indiana. If these fines are used to produce coal-water slurry (CWS), fuel costs, NO{sub x} emissions, and pond closure costs can be reduced. Coal fines from this region that are used to produce CWS for co-fire or re-burn may require processing, however, to attain proper particle size distribution and fuel quality. To evaluate the effectiveness of using coal cleaning technologies to control these CWS quality parameters, a simple flowsheet for recovering and processing coal pond fines was designed and tested. Coal fines processing consisted of using classifying cyclones to size at nominal minus 200 mesh, cleaning the classifying cyclone underflow using spirals, and cleaning the overflow using column froth flotation. Ash content of the dean coal from the spiral was reduced to about 10 percent, winch is satisfactory to use for CWS co-firing in a cyclone-fired boiler. The clean coal from column flotation may be used for re-burn in a cydone-fired boiler or as co-fire fuel in a wall-fired or tangentially-fired boiler Heating value recovery during laboratory scale, pilot-scale, and commercial-scale coal cleaning testing was about 80 percent.

  19. Has There Been any Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demaria, M.

    2006-12-01

    It is often stated that operational intensity forecasts have little or no skill, and that there has not been much improvement in these forecasts. However, these statements are often based upon subjective recollection rather than systematic analysis. In this study the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) operational tropical cyclone intensity forecasts for the three major northern hemisphere tropical cyclone basins (Atlantic (ATLC), eastern North Pacific (EPAC), and western North Pacific (WPAC)) for the past two decades are examined for long-term trends. Intensity forecast databases were readily available for the period 1985-2005, 1988-2005 and 1986-2005 for the ATLC, EPAC and WPAC, respectively. The intensity forecasts provide estimates of the maximum sustained surface winds and are validated against the "best-track" values, which are the post-storm best-estimate of the observed maximum winds. Three metrics were considered including the mean absolute error, the percent variance of the observed intensity change that is reduced by the forecasts (variance reduction, VR), and the forecast skill as measured by comparison with intensity forecasts based upon simple statistical techniques that use parameters from climatology and persistence. Results show that there has been some improvement in the mean absolute error at 24 and 48 h for the Atlantic and at 72 h for the east and west Pacific. There have also been significant improvements in the VR of the official forecasts in the Atlantic, and some marginal improvement in the other two basins. The improvement in the VR is due to the implementation of advanced statistical intensity prediction models and the operational version of the GFDL hurricane model in the mid-1990s. The recent skill of the operational intensity forecasts was evaluated for the 5-year period ending in 2005. The intensity forecasts had significant skill out to 96 h in the Atlantic and out to 72 h in the east and west Pacific. The intensity forecasts were also compared to the operational track forecasts. The skill was comparable at 12 h, but the track forecasts were 2 to 5 times more skillful by 72 h. A comparison of the track and intensity error trends for the two-decade period showed that the percentage track forecast improvement was almost an order of magnitude larger than that for intensity, indicating that intensity forecasting still has much room for improvement.

  20. The Role of Interacting Cyclones in Modifying Tropical Cyclone Landfall Threat: Fujiwhara vs. enhanced Beta drift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hart, R. E.

    2013-12-01

    The recent impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) Irene and Sandy have brought to the forefront the question of the true return period of landfalls in that region. Given the relatively short period of record of observations, those seeking robust return estimates often generate stochastic event sets. While the details of methods for generating those sets are generally not published (with an exception being Emanuel 2006), presentations have suggested that each member (TC event) of a stochastic set does not impact other TC members. Such an approach has the benefit of relative simplicity as well as rapidity of production, as each TC member can be produced without concern about simultaneous TCs in the basin. Given most real-world TCs are separated by several days or more, and distances of 2000km or more, this approach is seemingly well-founded for the majority of TC climatology. Yet, there have been many examples of TC-TC Fujiwhara interaction across the globe. While the interaction is much more common in the western Pacific, it is not unheard of in the Atlantic - with Connie and Diane in 1955 as two examples of such interaction but largely away from land. Further, the northeast U.S. coast can be threatened through such TC-TC interactions. The historic 1893 New York City Hurricane took an unusual NNW track (and landfall location) possibly as a consequence of interaction with one if not two additional nearby TCs. Numerical model (WRF) simulations of this case revealed exceptional difficulty in track prediction, illustrating further the complexity of the interaction. Interaction is not necessarily limited to another TC. Occasionally, a TC will interact with an occluded cold-core cyclone, which can then take the TC on a highly unusual track. Such interactions by their nature occur most often early or late in the TC season. Examples of TC-nonTC interaction include the 1938 New England Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel from 1950, and most recently, Hurricane Sandy, all of which had historic impacts in the region. Thus, the question raised here is: Is it necessary to account for the above cyclone interactions to accurately quantify TC risk for subregions of the U.S. coastline? This presentation will address this question by examining the distribution of TC motion vector across the basin, within subregions, and for the subset where TCs are within 1500km of each other (the threshold where interaction generally begins; Lander and Holland 1993) or less to determine if there is a systematic shift in motion (compared to single TC occurrences) that alters TC landfall threat regionally. Preliminary results show a statistically significant shift in TC motion when interaction is occurring -- a shift from bimodal motion (toward W or NE) to a unimodal motion (toward the N or NNW). This shift is not due to the Fujiwhara interaction itself (given the offsetting nature of the motion by one TC on the other), but instead is argued to be a consequence of enhanced Beta-drift resulting from the effective larger cyclonic circulation resulting from the two circulations interacting. The hypothesis is tested by reexamining shallow water model simulations of multiple TCs from prior work (Hart and Evans 1999). Potential implications of these results on the risk of midlatitude landfalls will be discussed.

  1. Reconciling droughts and landfalling tropical cyclones in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misra, Vasubandhu; Bastola, Satish

    2016-02-01

    A popular perception is that landfalling tropical cyclones help to mitigate droughts in the Southeastern United States (SeUS). However intriguing paradigms on the role of large scale SST variations on continental US including SeUS droughts and seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity confronts us. These paradigms suggest that in the presence of warm (cold) eastern tropical Pacific and cold (warm) Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) lead to the increased likelihood of wetter (drier) conditions over the continental US including the SeUS. Juxtaposing this understanding with the fact that landfalling tropical cyclones contribute significantly to the annual mean total rainfall in the SeUS and in El Niño (La Niña) years with cold (warm) tropical Atlantic SSTA lead to reduced (increased) Atlantic tropical cyclone activity raises a conflict on the role of the large-scale SST variations in SeUS hydroclimate. This study attempts to investigate the apparent dichotomous role of the large scale SST variations on the SeUS hydrology by examining the role of rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclones in the SeUS to local seasonal droughts. Our study finds that the contribution of the rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclone on the mitigation of monthly drought in the 28 SeUS watersheds is relatively insignificant. So much so that the hydrological model uncertainty in estimating the drought index over the 28 SeUS watersheds is larger than the sensitivity exhibited by the drought index to the inclusion of rain from landfalling tropical cyclone. The conclusions of this study are justified by the fact that the timing of the landfalling tropical cyclone in relation to overall soil moisture conditions of the watershed does not coincide with a drought like situation in the 1948-2006 time period analyzed in this study. This largely stems from the fact that the large-scale flow pattern resulting in abundant (lack of) advection of moisture for anomalously wet (dry) summer and fall seasons in the SeUS emanating from the source region of the Caribbean Sea and the northwestern tropical Atlantic Ocean coincides with the steering flow of the Atlantic tropical cyclones bound to make landfall in the SeUS (recurving away from the SeUS).

  2. Monitoring tropical cyclone intensity using wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, E. B.; Gentry, R. C.

    1981-01-01

    Rapid scan visible images from the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer sensor on board SMS-2 and GOES-1 were used to derive high resolution upper and lower tropospheric environmental wind fields around three western Atlantic tropical cyclones (1975-78). These wind fields were used to derive upper and lower tropospheric areal mean relative vorticity and their differences, the net relative angular momentum balance and upper tropospheric mass outflow. These kinematic parameters were shown by studies using composite rawinsonde data to be strongly related to tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. Also, the role of forced synoptic scale subsidence in tropical cyclone formation was examined. The studies showed that satellite-derived lower and upper tropospheric wind fields can be used to monitor and possibly predict tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. These kinematic analyses showed that future changes in tropical cyclone intensity are mainly related to the "spin-up" of the storms by the net horizontal transport of relative angular momentum caused by convergence of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and to a lesser extent the divergence of anticyclone vorticity in the upper troposphere.

  3. Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?

    PubMed

    Holland, Greg J; Webster, Peter J

    2007-11-15

    We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7 degrees C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945-1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions. PMID:17666389

  4. Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Jinhua; Li, Tim; Tan, Zhemin; Zhu, Zhiwei

    2016-02-01

    The tropical cyclone genesis number (TCGN) in July-October (JASO) over the western North Pacific (WNP) exhibits a robust interannual variation. It shows a longitudinally tri-pole pattern with a high in the eastern WNP and South China Sea (SCS) and a low in the western WNP, which explain 42.2 and 23.4 % of total TCGN variance in the eastern WNP and SCS, respectively. The high-low-high pattern is similar to that derived from a TC genesis potential index (GPI). To understand the cause of the longitudinal distribution of the dominant interannual mode, we examine the contributions of environmental parameters associated with GPI. It is found that relative humidity and relative vorticity are important factors responsible for TC variability in the SCS, while vertical shear and relative vorticity are crucial in determining TC activity in eastern WNP. A simultaneous correlation analysis shows that the WNP TCGN in JASO is significantly negatively correlated (with a correlation coefficient of -0.5) with sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA). The longitudinal distribution of TC genesis frequency regressed onto TNA SSTA resembles that regressed upon the WNP TCGN series. The spatial patterns of regressed environmental variables onto the SSTA over the TNA also resemble those onto TCGN in the WNP, that is, an increase of relative humidity in the SCS and a weakening of vertical shear in the eastern WNP are all associated with cold SSTA in the TNA. Further analyses show that the cold SSTA in the TNA induce a negative heating in situ. In response to this negative heating, a low (upper)-level anomalous aniti-cyclonic (cyclonic) flows appear over the subtropical North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific, and to east of the cold SSTA, anomalous low-level westerlies appear in the tropical Indian Ocean. Given pronounced mean westerlies in northern Indian Ocean in boreal summer, the anomalous westerly flows increase local surface wind speed and surface evaporation and cool the SST in situ. Cold SSTA in northern Indian Ocean further suppress local convection, inducing anomalous westerlies to its east, leading to enhanced cyclonic vorticity and low surface pressure over the WNP monsoon trough region. Idealized numerical experiments further confirm this Indian Ocean relaying effect, through which cold SSTA in the tropical Atlantic exert a remote impact to circulation in the WNP.

  5. Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincent, Emmanuel M.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Vialard, Jérôme; Madec, Gurvan

    2014-09-01

    Climate modes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influence Tropical Cyclones (TCs) interannual activity through their effect on large-scale atmospheric environment. These climate modes also induce interannual variations of subsurface oceanic stratification, which may also influence TCs. Changes in oceanic stratification indeed modulate the amplitude of TCs-induced cooling, and hence the negative feedback of air-sea interactions on the TC intensity. Here we use a dynamical downscaling approach that couples an axisymmetric TC model to a simple ocean model to quantify this interannual oceanic control on TC activity. We perform twin experiments with contrasted oceanic stratifications representative of interannual variability in each TC-prone region. While subsurface oceanic variations do not significantly affect the number of moderate (Category 3 or less) TCs, they do induce a 30% change of Category 5 TC-days globally, and a 70% change for TCs exceeding 85 m s-1. TCs in the western Pacific and the southwestern Indian Ocean are most sensitive to oceanic interannual variability (with a ˜10 m s-1 modulation of the intensity of strongest storms at low latitude), owing to large upper ocean variations in response to ENSO. These results imply that a representation of ocean stratification variability should benefit operational forecasts of intense TCs and the understanding of their climatic variability.

  6. Impact of environmental moisture on tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, L.; Su, H.; Fovell, R. G.; Dunkerton, T. J.; Wang, Z.; Kahn, B. H.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of environmental moisture on the intensification of a tropical cyclone (TC) are investigated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a focus on the azimuthal asymmetry of the moisture impacts relative to the storm path. A series of sensitivity experiments with varying moisture perturbations in the environment are conducted and the Marsupial Paradigm framework is employed to understand the different moisture impacts. We find that modification of environmental moisture has insignificant impacts on the storm in this case unless it leads to convective activity that deforms the quasi-Lagrangian boundary of the storm and changes the moisture transport into the storm. By facilitating convection and precipitation outside the storm, enhanced environmental moisture ahead of the northwestward-moving storm induces a dry air intrusion to the inner core and limits TC intensification. In contrast, increased moisture in the rear quadrants favors intensification by providing more moisture to the inner core and promoting storm symmetry, with primary contributions coming from moisture increase in the boundary layer. The different impacts of environmental moisture on TC intensification are governed by the relative locations of moisture perturbations and their interactions with the storm Lagrangian structure.

  7. Impact of environmental moisture on tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, L.; Su, H.; Fovell, R. G.; Dunkerton, T. J.; Wang, Z.; Kahn, B. H.

    2015-06-01

    The impacts of environmental moisture on the intensification of a tropical cyclone (TC) are investigated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a focus on the azimuthal asymmetry of the moisture impacts. A series of sensitivity experiments with varying moisture perturbations in the environment are conducted and the Marsupial Paradigm framework is employed to understand the different moisture impacts. We find that modification of environmental moisture has insignificant impacts on the storm in this case unless it leads to convective activity in the environment, which deforms the quasi-Lagrangian boundary of the storm. By facilitating convection and precipitation outside the storm, enhanced environmental moisture ahead of the northwestward-moving storm induces a dry air intrusion to the inner core and limits TC intensification. However, increased moisture in the rear quadrants favors intensification by providing more moisture to the inner core and promoting storm symmetry, with primary contributions coming from moisture increase in the boundary layer. The different impacts of environmental moisture on TC intensification are governed by the relative locations of moisture perturbations and their interactions with the storm Lagrangian structure.

  8. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to inner-core structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ge, Xuyang; Xu, Wei; Zhou, Shunwu

    2015-10-01

    In this study, the dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) development on the inner-core structure of the parent vortex is examined using a pair of idealized numerical simulations. It is found that the radial profile of inner-core relative vorticity may have a great impact on its subsequent development. For a system with a larger inner-core relative vorticity/inertial stability, the conversion ratio of the diabatic heating to kinetic energy is greater. Furthermore, the behavior of the convective vorticity eddies is likely modulated by the system-scale circulation. For a parent vortex with a relatively higher inner-core vorticity and larger negative radial vorticity gradient, convective eddy formation and radially inward propagation is promoted through vorticity segregation. This provides a greater potential for these small-scale convective cells to self-organize into a mesoscale inner-core structure in the TC. In turn, convectively induced diabatic heating that is close to the center, along with higher inertial stability, efficiently enhances system-scale secondary circulation. This study provides a solid basis for further research into how the initial structure of a TC influences storm dynamics and thermodynamics.

  9. A satellite stereoscopic technique to estimate tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, E. B.; Hasler, A. F.; Mack, R.

    1983-01-01

    The techniques used to obtain the mean equivalent temperature of the eye wall for Hurricanes Frederic (1979) and Allen (1980) using GOES satellite IR and stereoscopic observations are described. The eye wall is the area of greatest convection near the center of the storm, and is bounded by the inner radius around the eye and the outer radius bounding the area of inner core convection. The stereoscopic capability afforded by the GOES West and East spacecraft permits simultaneous, two-view imagery of a tropical cyclone, yielding height measurement accuracies of 0.5 km and horizontal accuracies as small as 1 km. An airborne lidar unit was used to verify the height measurements made of Hurricane Frederic. At the same time, the GOES East Visible IR Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) provided the mean wall temperatures from the release of latent heat. The trials aided in identifying the assumptions and consequent inaccuracies introduced into the temperature sounding data during analysis. The satellite data is concluded useful for monitoring changes in storm intensity.

  10. The inner core thermodynamics of the tropical cyclone boundary layer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Gabriel J.

    2016-02-01

    Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the inner-core dynamics of the tropical cyclone boundary layer (TCBL), our knowledge of the inner-core thermodynamics of the TCBL remains limited. In this study, the inner-core budgets of potential temperature (θ ), specific humidity (q), and reversible equivalent potential temperature (θ _e ) are examined using a high-resolution multilevel boundary layer model. The potential temperature budgets show that the heat energy is dominated by latent heat release in the eyewall, evaporative cooling along the outer edge of the eyewall, and upward surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat from the underlying warm ocean. It is shown that the vertical θ advection overcompensates the sum of radial advective warming from the boundary layer outflow jet and latent heating for the development of cooling in the eyewall within the TCBL. The moisture budgets show the dominant upward transport of moisture in the eyewall updrafts, partly by the boundary-layer outflow jet from the bottom eye region, so that the eyewall remains nearly saturated. The θ _e budgets reveal that the TCBL is maintained thermodynamically by the upward surface flux of higher-θ _e air from the underlying warm ocean, the radial transport of low-θ _e air from the outer regions of the TCBL, and the dry adiabatic cooling associated by eyewall updrafts. These results underscore the significance of vertical motion and the location of the boundary layer outflow jet in maintaining the inner core thermal structure of the TCBL.

  11. Impacts of tropical cyclones on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, C. T.; Hamburg, S. P.; Hwong, J. L.; Lin, N. H.; Hsueh, M. L.; Chen, M. C.; Lin, T. C.

    2013-04-01

    Tropical cyclones (typhoons/hurricanes) have major impacts on the biogeochemistry of forest ecosystems, but the stochastic nature and the long intervals between storms means that there are limited data on their effects. We characterized the impacts of 14 typhoons over six years on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest plantation in Taiwan, a region experiencing frequent typhoons. Typhoons contributed 1/3 of annual rainfall on average, but ranged from 4% to 55%. The stochastic nature of annual typhoon related precipitation poses a challenge with respect to managing the impacts of these extreme events. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that typhoon-related rainfall is not significantly correlated with wind velocity, the current focus of weather forecasts. Thus little advance warning is provided for the hydrological impacts of these storms. The typhoons we studied contributed approximately one third of the annual input and output of most nutrients (except nitrogen) during an average 9.5d yr-1 period, resulting in nutrient input/output rates an order of magnitude greater than during non-typhoon period. Nitrate output balanced input during the non-typhoon period, but during the typhoon period an average of 10 kg ha-1 yr-1 nitrate was lost. Streamwater chemistry exhibited similarly high variability during typhoon and non-typhoon periods and returned to pre-typhoon levels one to three weeks following each typhoon. The streamwater chemistry appears to be very resilient in response to typhoons, resulting in minimal loss of nutrients.

  12. An ocean coupling potential intensity index for tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, I.-I.; Black, P.; Price, J. F.; Yang, C.-Y.; Chen, S. S.; Lien, C.-C.; Harr, P.; Chi, N.-H.; Wu, C.-C.; D'Asaro, E. A.

    2013-05-01

    Timely and accurate forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs, i.e., hurricanes and typhoons) are of great importance for risk mitigation. Although in the past two decades there has been steady improvement in track prediction, improvement on intensity prediction is still highly challenging. Cooling of the upper ocean by TC-induced mixing is an important process that impacts TC intensity. Based on detail in situ air-deployed ocean and atmospheric measurement pairs collected during the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign, we modify the widely used Sea Surface Temperature Potential Intensity (SST_PI) index by including information from the subsurface ocean temperature profile to form a new Ocean coupling Potential Intensity (OC_PI) index. Using OC_PI as a TC maximum intensity predictor and applied to a 14 year (1998-2011) western North Pacific TC archive, OC_PI reduces SST_PI-based overestimation of archived maximum intensity by more than 50% and increases the correlation of maximum intensity estimation from r2 = 0.08 to 0.31. For slow-moving TCs that cause the greatest cooling, r2 increases to 0.56 and the root-mean square error in maximum intensity is 11 m s-1. As OC_PI can more realistically characterize the ocean contribution to TC intensity, it thus serves as an effective new index to improve estimation and prediction of TC maximum intensity.

  13. Impacts of tropical cyclones on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, C. T.; Hamburg, S. P.; Hwong, J. L.; Lin, N. H.; Hsueh, M. L.; Chen, M. C.; Lin, T. C.

    2013-10-01

    Tropical cyclones (typhoons/hurricanes) have major impacts on the biogeochemistry of forest ecosystems, but the stochastic nature and the long intervals between storms means that there are limited data on their effects. We characterised the impacts of 14 typhoons over six years on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest plantation in Taiwan, a region experiencing frequent typhoons. Typhoons contributed 1/3 of the annual rainfall on average, but ranged from 4 to 55%. The stochastic nature of annual typhoon related precipitation poses a challenge with respect to managing the impacts of these extreme events. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that typhoon-related rainfall is not significantly correlated with wind velocity, the current focus of weather forecasts. Thus, little advance warning is provided for the hydrological impacts of these storms. The typhoons we studied contributed approximately one third of the annual input and output of most nutrients (except nitrogen) during an average 9.5 day yr-1 period, resulting in nutrient input/output rates an order of magnitude greater than during non-typhoon months. Nitrate output balanced input during the non-typhoon period, but during the typhoon period an average of 10 kg ha-1 yr-1 nitrate was lost. Streamwater chemistry exhibited similarly high variability during typhoon and non-typhoon periods and returned to pre-typhoon levels one to three weeks following each typhoon. The streamwater chemistry appears to be very resilient in response to typhoons, resulting in minimal loss of nutrients.

  14. Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2013-01-01

    One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.

  15. Forecasting tropical cyclone recurvature with upper tropospheric winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Data from 17 tropical cyclones during the 1974 through 1979 hurricane seasons are used to investigate whether the high level winds far to the northwest, north and northeast of the hurricane center can be used to predict hurricane track recurvature. When the man 200-mb winds 1500 to 2000 km northwest and north of the storm center equal or exceed 20 m/s, 80 per cent of the storms recurved before traveling as much as 12 degrees of longitude farther west. The high winds were also used to predict change in direction of forward motion during the next 72 hours. The regression equations developed explain up to 41 per cent of the variance in future direction. In addition to the geostrophic winds used, winds were also obtained by tracking clouds with successive satellite imagery. The u-components of the satellite winds are highly correlated with the geostrophic winds at 200-mb and could probably be used instead of them when available. The v-components are less highly correlated.

  16. A reassessment of the integrated impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll in the western subtropical North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, L. Ruby

    2015-02-01

    The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998-2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally averaged (June-November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explained by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.

  17. A Reassessment of the Integrated Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Surface Chlorophyll in the Western Subtropical North Atlantic

    SciTech Connect

    Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-02-28

    The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998–2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally-averaged (June–November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explained by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.

  18. Tracking Scheme Dependence of Simulated Tropical Cyclone Response to Idealized Climate Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horn, Michael; Walsh, Kevin; Zhao, Ming; Camargo, Suzana J.; Scoccimarro, Enrico (Compiler); Murakami, Hiroyuki; Wang, Hui; Ballinger, Andrew; Kumar, Arun; Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Jonas, Jeffrey A. (Compiler); Oouchi, Kazuyoshi

    2014-01-01

    Future tropical cyclone activity is a topic of great scientific and societal interest. In the absence of a climate theory of tropical cyclogenesis, general circulation models are the primary tool available for investigating the issue. However, the identification of tropical cyclones in model data at moderate resolution is complex, and numerous schemes have been developed for their detection. The influence of different tracking schemes on detected tropical cyclone activity and responses in the Hurricane Working Group experiments is examined herein. These are idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments aimed at determining and distinguishing the effects of increased sea surface temperature and other increased CO2 effects on tropical cyclone activity. Two tracking schemes are applied to these data and the tracks provided by each modeling group are analyzed. The results herein indicate moderate agreement between the different tracking methods, with some models and experiments showing better agreement across schemes than others. When comparing responses between experiments, it is found that much of the disagreement between schemes is due to differences in duration, wind speed, and formation-latitude thresholds. After homogenization in these thresholds, agreement between different tracking methods is improved. However, much disagreement remains, accountable for by more fundamental differences between the tracking schemes. The results indicate that sensitivity testing and selection of objective thresholds are the key factors in obtaining meaningful, reproducible results when tracking tropical cyclones in climate model data at these resolutions, but that more fundamental differences between tracking methods can also have a significant impact on the responses in activity detected.

  19. Elevated middle and upper troposphere ozone observed downstream of Atlantic tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Gregory S.; Robjhon, Miliaritiana L.; Reyes, Ashford; Valentine, Adriel; Neves, Luis

    2015-10-01

    During the peak period of hurricane activity in the summer of 2010, vertical profiles of ozone using ozonesondes were taken downstream of tropical cyclones in the Western and Eastern Atlantic Ocean basin at Barbados and Cape Verde. Measurements are taken for tropical cyclones Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Julia and Igor. The measurements show an increase in ozone mixing ratios with air originating from the tropical cyclones at 5-10 km altitude. We suggest that observed lightning activity associated tropical cyclones and the subsequent production of NOX followed by upper level outflow and subsidence ahead of the tropical cyclones and aged continental outflow from West Africa thunderstorms produced observed increases in ozone mixing ratios. Hurricane Danielle showed the largest changes in ozone mixing ratio with values increasing from 25 ppb to 70 ppb between 22 and 25 August in the middle troposphere, near 450 hPa; warming and drying in the middle and lower troposphere. Measurements of ozone mixing ratios in Cape Verde show higher ozone mixing ratios prior to the passage of tropical storm Julia but low ozone mixing ratios and high relative humidity up to 300 hPa when the storm was in close proximity. This is due most likely the vertically transported from the marine boundary layer.

  20. Putting to rest WISHE-ful misconceptions for tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montomery, Michael T.; Persing, John; Smith, Roger K.

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to point out and correct several misconceptions about the putative WISHE mechanism of tropical cyclone intensification that currently are being taught to atmospheric science students, to tropical weather forecasters, and to laypeople who seek to understand how tropical cyclones intensify. The mechanism relates to the simplest problem of an initial cyclonic vortex in a quiescent environment. This first part is important because the credibility of tropical cyclone science depends inter alia on being able to articulate a clear and consistent picture of the hypothesized intensification process and its dependencies on key flow parameters. The credibility depends also on being able to test the hypothesized mechanisms using observations, numerical models, or theoretical analyses. The second purpose of the paper is to carry out new numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art numerical model to test a recent hypothesis invoking the WISHE feedback mechanism during the rapid intensification phase of a tropical cyclone. The results obtained herein, in conjunction with prior work, do not support this recent hypothesis and refute the view that the WISHE intensification mechanism is the essential mechanism of tropical cyclone intensification in the idealized problem that historically has been used to underpin the paradigm. This second objective is important because it presents a simple way of testing the hypothesized intensification mechanism and shows that the mechanism is neither essential nor the dominant mode of intensification for the prototype intensification problem. In view of the operational, societal, and scientific interest in the physics of tropical cyclone intensification, we believe this paper will be of broad interest to the atmospheric science community and the findings should be useful in both the classroom setting and frontier research.

  1. Tropical cyclone - mature baroclinic wave interaction: Wave activity diagnostic and bifurcation point behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riemer, Michael; Jones, Sarah

    2013-04-01

    Rossby wave trains are fundamental to the synoptic-scale dynamics of the midlatitudes. It is well known that these wave trains play an important role in the development of midlatitude weather systems and associated weather events. One particular process that may significantly modify a Rossby wave train is the interaction with a tropical cyclone undergoing extratropical transition. Previous studies have shown that such an interaction often produces enhanced uncertainty of medium-range weather predictions. Our understanding of the physical processes of this interaction and the causes of the reduced predictability is still incomplete. This presentation will examine an idealized scenario of extratropical transition, in which a tropical cyclone interacts with a mature baroclinic wave. The impact of the tropical cyclone is quantified as a source of wave activity for the upper-level wave pattern using piecewise inversion of potential vorticity complemented by a Helmholtz decomposition and an estimate of diabatic terms. In contrast to many previous studies, a consistent (further) amplification of the mature wave pattern is not diagnosed in this scenario. In fact, the interaction with the tropical cyclone initiates wave breaking and thus a weakening of the wave pattern. The impact on the midlatitude wave is sensitive to the phasing of the wave pattern and the tropical cyclone, as found in previous studies. Sensitivity experiments reveal three distinct scenarios: a no-transition scenario, in which the tropical cyclone passes to the south of the upstream trough, and two scenarios that have been dubbed previously ``northeast'' and ``northwest'' pattern, respectively. Examination of the topology of the quasi-stationary steering flow reveals two bifurcation points that separate the three distinct regimes. Thus, uncertainties in the modification of the midlatitude wave train can be attributed to a large extent to the bifurcation behaviour of the tropical cyclone track.

  2. New Frontiers: Tropical Cyclone Modeling with NCAR's Variable-Resolution General Circulation Model CAM-SE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jablonowski, Christiane; Zarzycki, Colin

    2014-05-01

    Modeling of tropical cyclones in General Circulation Models (GCMs) has traditionally proved challenging. Tropical cyclones are significantly under-resolved, if not completely unresolved, at traditional GCM grid resolutions of 50-300 km. However, recent gains in computational resources and advances in GCM model design now allow for GCM simulations with grid spacings as small as 12-30 km. At these resolutions, models are able to more effectively capture key features of tropical cyclones. This talk surveys a novel variable-resolution mesh approach that allows for high spatial resolutions in areas of interest. The statically-nested, variable-mesh option has recently been introduced into the cubed-sphere Spectral Element (SE) dynamical core of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) which is under development at various U.S. Department of Energy laboratories and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The talk gives an overview of the variable-resolution mesh approach, and evaluates its scientific properties. In particular, we will discuss the characteristics of tropical cyclone simulations in a variety of modeling frameworks. They include the representation of tropical cyclones in aqua-planet experiments, and showcase short-term and multi-decadal tropical cyclone simulations in CAM-SE when driven with prescribed sea surface temperatures. Special attention is paid to the characteristics of tropical cyclones in the grid transition regions, and the comparison of variable- and uniform-resolution experiments. It is shown that the variable-resolution CAM-SE model has the potential to become a future tool for regional climate assessments. In addition, we assess the performance of the CAM4 and CAM5 physical parameterization packages in variable-resolution aqua-planet simulations. In particular, we discuss the question whether current physics packages are scale-aware and whether or not the addition of increased resolution patches adds bias to key climate metrics such as rainfall and cloud fraction at the regional level.

  3. Assimilation of hyperspectral satellite radiance observations within tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Haidao

    The availability of high resolution temperature and water vapor data is critical for the study of mesoscale scale weather phenomena (e.g., convective initiations, and tropical cyclones). As hyperspectral infrared sounders, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) could provide high resolution atmospheric profiles by measuring radiations in many thousands of different channels. This work focuses on the assessment of the potential values of satellite hyperspectral radiance data on the study of convective initiations (CI) and the assimilation of AIRS radiance observations within tropical storms. First, the potential capability of hyperspectral infrared measurements (GIFTS) to provide convective precipitation forecasts has been studied and assessed. Using both the observed and the model-predicted profiles as input to the GIFTS radiative transfer model (RTM), it is shown that the simulated GIFTS radiance could capture the high vertical and temporal variability of the real and modeled atmosphere prior to a convective initiation, as well as the differences between observations and model forecasts. This study suggests the potential for hyperspectral infrared radiance data to make an important contribution to the improvement of the forecast skill of convective precipitation. Second, as the first step toward applying AIRS data to tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, a set of dropsonde profiles during Hurricane Rita (2005) is used to simulate AIRS radiance data and to assess the ability of AIRS data in capturing the vertical variability within TCs through one-dimensional variational (1D-Var) twin experiments. The AIRS observation errors and background errors are first estimated. Five sets of 1D-Var twin experiments are then performed using different combinations of AIRS channels. Finally, results from these 1D-Var experiments are analyzed. Major findings are: (1) AIRS radiance data contain useful information about the vertical variability of the temperature and water vapor within hurricanes; (2) assimilation of AIRS radiances significantly reduced errors in background temperature in the lower troposphere and relative humidity in the upper troposphere; (3) the near-real time (NRT) channel set provided by NOAA/NESDIS seems sufficient for capturing the vertical variability of the atmosphere in the upper troposphere of TCs, but not in the lower troposphere; and (4) the channels with weighting functions peak within the layer between 500-700 hPa could provide useful information to the atmospheric state below 700 hPa. A channel selection method is proposed to capture most vertical variability of temperature and water vapor within TCs contained in AIRS data. Finally, AIRS radiance data within TCs have been assimilated in the 1D-Var experiments with comparisons of the retrieval temperature and water vapor profiles with co-located Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) soundings and dropsonde profiles. The comparisons of AIRS 1DVar retrieval profiles with GPS RO sounding show that AIRS data can greatly improve the analysis of temperature and water vapor profiles within TCs. The comparisons of retrieval profiles with dropsonde data during Hurricane Rita, however, showed some discrepancies partly due to the difference of these two measurements and the uncertainties of the AIRS errors.

  4. The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity.

    PubMed

    Kossin, James P; Emanuel, Kerry A; Vecchi, Gabriel A

    2014-05-15

    Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions. PMID:24828193

  5. Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

    2003-01-01

    A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the current climate state.

  6. Effects of cyclone-generated disturbance on a tropical reef foraminifera assemblage.

    PubMed

    Strotz, Luke C; Mamo, Briony L; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2016-01-01

    The sedimentary record, and associated micropalaeontological proxies, is one tool that has been employed to quantify a region's tropical cyclone history. Doing so has largely relied on the identification of allochthonous deposits (sediments and microfossils), sourced from deeper water and entrained by tropical cyclone waves and currents, in a shallow-water or terrestrial setting. In this study, we examine microfossil assemblages before and after a known tropical cyclone event (Cyclone Hamish) with the aim to better resolve the characteristics of this known signal. Our results identify no allochthonous material associated with Cyclone Hamish. Instead, using a swathe of statistical tools typical of ecological studies but rarely employed in the geosciences, we identify new, previously unidentified, signal types. These signals include a homogenising effect, with the level of differentiation between sample sites greatly reduced immediately following Cyclone Hamish, and discernible shifts in assemblage diversity. In the subsequent years following Hamish, the surface assemblage returns to its pre-cyclone form, but results imply that it is unlikely the community ever reaches steady state. PMID:27126520

  7. Effects of cyclone-generated disturbance on a tropical reef foraminifera assemblage

    PubMed Central

    Strotz, Luke C.; Mamo, Briony L.; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2016-01-01

    The sedimentary record, and associated micropalaeontological proxies, is one tool that has been employed to quantify a region’s tropical cyclone history. Doing so has largely relied on the identification of allochthonous deposits (sediments and microfossils), sourced from deeper water and entrained by tropical cyclone waves and currents, in a shallow-water or terrestrial setting. In this study, we examine microfossil assemblages before and after a known tropical cyclone event (Cyclone Hamish) with the aim to better resolve the characteristics of this known signal. Our results identify no allochthonous material associated with Cyclone Hamish. Instead, using a swathe of statistical tools typical of ecological studies but rarely employed in the geosciences, we identify new, previously unidentified, signal types. These signals include a homogenising effect, with the level of differentiation between sample sites greatly reduced immediately following Cyclone Hamish, and discernible shifts in assemblage diversity. In the subsequent years following Hamish, the surface assemblage returns to its pre-cyclone form, but results imply that it is unlikely the community ever reaches steady state. PMID:27126520

  8. The role of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in modulating western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Liwei; Guo, Pinwen; Hameed, Saji N.; Jin, Dachao

    2015-04-01

    The connection between north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) and associated physical mechanisms are investigated in this study. We demonstrate a remarkable negative correlation of WNP TC genesis frequency with the (preceding) boreal spring NTA SST anomalies. Our analysis suggests that major factors for TC genesis including distributions of large-scale vorticity and midtropospheric humidity are rendered unfavorable by remote teleconnections while barotropic energy conversion from the large-scale flow is suppressed. As shown in recent studies, the remote teleconnection from the Atlantic is sustained and enhanced throughout the typhoon season through local air-sea interactions. These results suggest that boreal spring NTA SST anomaly could be a new predictor for the seasonal WNP TC activity.

  9. Tropical Cyclone Paka's Initial Explosive Development (10-12 December, 1997)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Halverson, Jeff; Simpson, Joanne; Olson, William; Pierce, Harold

    1999-01-01

    Convection associated with an equatorial westerly wind burst was first observed late November during the strong El Nino of 1997 at approximately 2000 km southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This region of convection lead to the formation of twin tropical cyclones, one in the southern hemisphere named Pam and the other in the northern hemisphere named Paka. During the first week in December, tropical cyclone Paka, the system of concern, reached tropical storm stage as it moved rapidly westward at relatively low latitudes. During the 10-12 of December, Paka rapidly developed into a typhoon.

  10. On the response to tropical cyclones in mesoscale oceanic eddies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaimes, Benjamin

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) often change intensity as they move over mesoscale oceanic features, as a function of the oceanic mixed layer (OML) thermal response (cooling) to the storm's wind stress. For example, observational evidence indicates that TCs in the Gulf of Mexico rapidly weaken over cyclonic cold core eddies (CCEs) where the cooling response is enhanced, and they rapidly intensify over anticyclonic warm features such as the Loop Current (LC) and Warm Core Eddies (WCEs) where OML cooling is reduced. Understanding this contrasting thermal response has important implications for oceanic feedback to TCs' intensity in forecasting models. Based on numerical experimentation and data acquired during hurricanes Katrina and Rita, this dissertation delineates the contrasting velocity and thermal response to TCs in mesoscale oceanic eddies. Observational evidence and model results indicate that, during the forced stage, the wind-driven horizontal current divergence under the storm's eye is affected by the underlying geostrophic circulation. Upwelling (downwelling) regimes develop when the wind stress vector is with (against) the geostrophic OML velocity vector. During the relaxation stage, background geostrophic circulations modulate vertical dispersion of OML near-inertial energy. The near-inertial velocity response is subsequently shifted toward more sub-inertial frequencies inside WCEs, where rapid vertical dispersion prevents accumulation of kinetic energy in the OML that reduces vertical shears and layer cooling. By contrast, near-inertial oscillations are vertically trapped in OMLs inside CCEs that increases vertical shears and entrainment. Estimates of downward vertical radiation of near-inertial wave energies were significantly stronger in the LC bulge (12.1x10-2 W m-2) compared to that in CCEs (1.8x10-2 W m-2). The rotational and translation properties of the geostrophic eddies have an important impact on the internal wave wake produced by TCs. More near-inertial kinetic energy is horizontally trapped in more rapidly rotating eddies. This response enhances vertical shear development and mixing. Moreover, the upper ocean temperature anomaly and near-inertial oscillations induced by TCs are transported by the westward-propagating geostrophic eddies. From a broader perspective, coupled models must capture oceanic features to reproduce the differentiated TC-induced OML cooling to improve intensity forecasting.

  11. Tropical cyclone track and genesis forecasting using satellite microwave sounder data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kidder, S. Q.

    1982-01-01

    Although many dynamical and statistical prediction schemes are available to forecasters, tropical cyclone track errors are still large. One primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones exist over the data-sparse tropical oceans. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous data over these areas. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer on board the Nimbus 6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from the persistence forecast location, to speed change, to direction change and to intensity change. The significance of the regression equations is tested by a null hypothesis of zero correlation coefficient. It appears that significant information about tropical cyclone motion exists in the satellite-estimated mean layer temperatures, especially at upper levels. A physical interpretation of the statistical results is offered, and a one-storm-out independent test is used to test the stability of the equations. Finally, some further work is suggested.

  12. Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes over Western North Pacific: A Composite Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, L.

    2012-12-01

    Large-scale monsoon gyres and the involved tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific have been documented in previous studies. This study is aimed to understand how monsoon gyres affect tropical cyclone formation. As the first part of this study, an observational study is conducted on monsoon gyres during the period 2000-2010, with a focus on their structures and the associated tropical cyclone formation. A total of 36 monsoon gyres are identified in May-October during 2000-2010, among which 31 monsoon gyres are accompanied with the formation of 43 tropical cyclones, accounting for 20.3% of the total tropical cyclone formation. Monsoon gyres generally are found on the poleward side of the climatological monsoon trough with a peak occurrence in August-October. Extending about 1000 km outward from the center in at lower levels, the cyclonic circulation of the composited monsoon gyre shrinks with height and is replaced with negative relative vorticity above 200 hPa. The maximum winds of the composited monsoon gyre appear 500-800 km away from the gyre center with a magnitude of 8-13 m s-1 at 850 hPa. In agreement with previous studies, the composited monsoon gyre shows enhanced southwesterly flows and convection on the south-southeast side due to Rossby wave energy dispersion. Most of tropical cyclones associated with monsoon gyres are found to form near the centers of monsoon gyres and the northeast end of the enhanced southwesterly flows, accompanying with weak vertical wind shear.

  13. Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity.

    PubMed

    Vecchi, Gabriel A; Soden, Brian J

    2007-12-13

    The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming is widely debated. It is often assumed that warmer sea surface temperatures provide a more favourable environment for the development and intensification of tropical cyclones, but cyclone genesis and intensity are also affected by the vertical thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere. Here we use climate models and observational reconstructions to explore the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone 'potential intensity'--a measure that provides an upper bound on cyclone intensity and can also reflect the likelihood of cyclone development. We find that changes in local sea surface temperature are inadequate for characterizing even the sign of changes in potential intensity, but that long-term changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of warming; regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa. We use this relationship to reconstruct changes in potential intensity over the twentieth century from observational reconstructions of sea surface temperature. We find that, even though tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at a historical high, Atlantic potential intensity probably peaked in the 1930s and 1950s, and recent values are near the historical average. Our results indicate that--per unit local sea surface temperature change--the response of tropical cyclone activity to natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature, may be larger than the response to the more uniform patterns of greenhouse-gas-induced warming. PMID:18075590

  14. Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Daniel B.; Knutson, Thomas R.; Smith, James A.

    2015-12-01

    The eastern United States is vulnerable to flooding from tropical cyclone rainfall. Understanding how both the frequency and intensity of this rainfall will change in the future climate is a major challenge. One promising approach is the dynamical downscaling of relatively coarse general circulation model results using higher-resolution regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, we examine the frequency of landfalling tropical cyclones and associated rainfall properties over the eastern United States using Zetac, an 18-km resolution RCM designed for modeling Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Simulations of 1980-2006 tropical cyclone frequency and rainfall intensity for the months of August-October are compared against results from previous studies and observation-based datasets. The 1980-2006 control simulations are then compared against results from three future climate scenarios: CMIP3/A1B (late twenty-first century) and CMIP5/RCP4.5 (early and late twenty-first century). In CMIP5 early and late twenty-first century projections, the frequency of occurrence of post-landfall tropical cyclones shows little net change over much of the eastern U.S. despite a decrease in frequency over the ocean. This reflects a greater landfalling fraction in CMIP5 projections, which is not seen in CMIP3-based projections. Average tropical cyclone rain rates over land within 500 km of the storm center increase by 8-17 % in the future climate projections relative to control. This is at least as much as expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, which links a warmer atmosphere to greater atmospheric water vapor content. Over land, the percent enhancement of area-averaged rain rates from a given tropical cyclone in the warmer climate is greater for larger averaging radius (300-500 km) than near the storm, particularly for the CMIP3 projections. Although this study does not focus on attribution, the findings are broadly consistent with historical tropical cyclone rainfall changes documented in a recent observational study. The results may have important implications for future flood risks from tropical cyclones.

  15. Application of the Marsupial Paradigm to Tropical Cyclone Formation from Northwestward-Propagating Disturbances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Zhuo; Dunkerton, Timothy J.; Montgomery, Michael T.

    2012-01-01

    A wave-tracking algorithm is developed for northwestward-propagating waves that, on occasion, play a role in tropical cyclogenesis over the western oceans. To obtain the Lagrangian flow structure, the frame of reference is translated obliquely at the same propagation speed with the precursor disturbance. Trajectory analysis suggests that streamlines in the obliquely translated frame of reference can be used to approximate flow trajectories. The algorithm was applied to Super Typhoon Nakri (2008), Tropical Cyclone Erika (2009), and a few other examples. Diagnoses of meteorological analyses and satellite-derived moisture and precipitation fields show that the marsupial framework for tropical cyclogenesis in tropical easterly waves is relevant also for northwestward-propagating disturbances as are commonly observed in the tropical western Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the western North Pacific. Finally, it is suggested that analysis of the global model data and satellite observations in the marsupial framework can provide useful guidance on early tropical cyclone advisories.

  16. The Structural Changes of Tropical Cyclones Upon Interaction with Vertical Wind Shear

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ritchie, Elizabeth A.

    2003-01-01

    The Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4) provided a unique opportunity to observe the distributions and document the roles of important atmospheric factors that impact the development of the core asymmetries and core structural changes of tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear. The state-of-the-art instruments flown on the NASA DC-8 and ER-2, in addition to those on the NOAA aircraft, provided a unique set of observations that documented the core structure throughout the depth of the tropical cyclone. These data have been used to conduct a combined observational and modeling study using a state-of-the-art, high- resolution mesoscale model to examine the role of the environmental vertical wind shear in producing tropical cyclone core asymmetries, and the effects on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones.The scientific objectives of this study were to obtain in situ measurements that would allow documentation of the physical mechanisms that influence the development of the asymmetric convection and its effect on the core structure of the tropical cyclone.

  17. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Emanuel, Kerry A

    2013-07-23

    A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(10(4))] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950-2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

  18. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century

    PubMed Central

    Emanuel, Kerry A.

    2013-01-01

    A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

  19. Parametrization of Planetary Boundary-Layer Height with Helicity and Verification with Tropical Cyclone Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Lei-Ming; Bao, Xu-Wei

    2016-04-01

    To reduce the discrepancy between simulated and observed tropical cyclones, we consider a new parametrization scheme for planetary boundary-layer (PBL) height based on helicity, intended to provide an improved description of the overall helical structures of the tropical cyclone PBL simulated in a numerical model. This scheme was preliminarily tested in the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme integrated within the National Center for Atmospheric Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. Based on verification of track simulations for seven tropical cyclones that made landfall over China, tropical cyclone Morakot (2009) was selected for further evaluation of the new scheme. Compared with the original scheme based on the Richardson number (Ri), the new scheme elevated the PBL height associated with intense convection, which is consistent with observation. Importantly, the new scheme improved the numerical simulation of intense rainfall by modulating the PBL environment for convection evolution. Furthermore, the PBL height and 2-m temperature over land at night, which are frequently overestimated by the original YSU scheme, were improved using the new scheme. Because of its effects on PBL structures and convection evolution, the simulation of tropical cyclone Morakot intensity was improved by the new scheme.

  20. Applicability of the superensemble to the tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jun, Sanghee; Lee, Woojeong; Kang, KiRyong; Byun, Kun-Young; Kim, Jiyoung; Yun, Won-Tae

    2015-02-01

    In this study a superensemble was constructed and assessed to examine its applicability to the tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific. The data used for this study were outputs of 20 tropical cyclone forecast models and analyzed tropical cyclone tracks by the Korea Meteorological Administration from 2011 to 2013. The annual mean track errors were analyzed at the 24-, 48-, 72-, 96- and 120-h periods for 2012 and 2013, and the superensemble forecasts showed lower annual errors than the simple mean consensus (using 20 numerical models), ECMWF_TIGG, and GFS. The superensemble track errors for individual tropical cyclone cases were lower than the simple mean consensus over 60% of the total cases, and lower than the best-performing model over 50% of the total cases for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecast periods. In the track error distribution, the superensemble had lower density for relatively large errors than the simple mean consensus, and higher density for smaller errors than single models. When the results are combined, the probability of the superensemble yielding lower errors than the simple mean consensus and single models becomes high, which indicates that the superensemble can serve as an objective reference for the tropical cyclone track forecasts.

  1. An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2009-01-01

    An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season.

  2. Have Tropical Cyclones Been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

    2008-01-01

    We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slight more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool areas are strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

  3. Have Tropical Cyclones been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

    2008-01-01

    We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data ; and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-gain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events, and 21% of rain amount in WN.P. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for bout periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slightly more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In. WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the loner term relationship between TC rain and warm pool area is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

  4. A Simplified System of Equations for Simulation of Tropical Cyclones.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demaria, Mark; Pickle, John D.

    1988-05-01

    A simplified system of equations which can simulate the development and mature stages of tropical cyclones is presented. The model is similar to that presented by Ooyama, except that the assumption of incompressible fluid layers is relaxed. Instead, the governing equations for a compressible fluid in isentropic coordinates are discretized vertically by considering three fluid layers with constant potential temperature. This makes the inclusion of thermodynamic processes more straightforward. The governing equations in the adiabatic case are mathematically equivalent to the equations used by Ooyama, except with an extra term in the pressure gradient force.The model equations are solved using a spectral method where the basis functions are the normal modes of the linearized equations. Numerical simulations show that the model sensitivity to vertical stability, sea surface temperature and midlevel moisture are similar to results from more general models. The sensitivity to these factors can be explained qualitatively by consideration of the vertical stability factor used in the cumulus parameterization.The sensitivity to latitude is investigated in more detail in previous work. Low-latitude storms are smaller than high-latitude storms, but intensify more rapidly initially. This difference is related to the radial positioning of the diabatic heating which is much closer to the storm center for low-latitude storms. This occurs since the air in the boundary layer can penetrate closer to the storm center when the Coriolis force is smaller.The model is also initialized with climatological values of sea surface temperature as a function of latitude appropriate for the Western Pacific. Despite its simplicity, the model can reproduce the observed variations of storm size and intensity with latitude.

  5. Effects of Sea Spray on Tropical Cyclone Intensity.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreas, Edgar L.; Emanuel, Kerry A.

    2001-12-01

    The intensity of tropical cyclones is sensitive to the rates at which enthalpy and momentum are transferred between sea and air in the high-wind core of the storm. Present models of the wind dependence of these transfer rates suggest that the effective drag coefficient is more than twice the effective enthalpy transfer coefficient at wind speeds above 25 m s-1. Using this ratio in numerical models, however, makes it impossible to sustain storms of greater than marginal hurricane intensity. Some other physical process must, therefore, enhance enthalpy transfer at very high wind speeds. This paper suggests that re-entrant sea spray explains this enhanced transfer. When a spray droplet is ejected from the ocean, it remains airborne long enough to cool to a temperature below the local air temperature but not long enough to evaporate an appreciable fraction of its mass. The spray droplet thus gives up sensible heat and returns to the sea before it has time to extract back from the atmosphere the heat necessary to continue its evaporation. Microphysical modeling, combined with data from the Humidity Exchange over the Sea Experiment (HEXOS), makes it possible to derive an expression for the net enthalpy transfer of re-entrant spray. This spray enthalpy flux is roughly cubic in wind speed. When this relation is used in a numerical simulation of a hurricane, the spray more than compensates for the observed increase in the ratio of drag and enthalpy transfer coefficients with wind speed. The momentum flux associated with sea spray is an important energy sink that moderates the effects of this spray enthalpy flux. Including a parameterization for this momentum sink along with wave drag and spray enthalpy transfer in the hurricane simulation produces results that are similar to ones based on equal transfer coefficients.


  6. Deriving robust return periods for tropical cyclone inundations from sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan F.; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2013-01-01

    Return periods for tropical cyclone (TC) marine inundations are usually derived from synthetic data sets generated from deterministic models or by extrapolating short historical records. Such approaches contain considerable uncertainties because it is difficult to test their veracity until a sufficiently long period has elapsed. These approaches also often only consider storm surges or storm tides and not the total inundation, which includes waves, set-up and run-up, likely to flood a coastal property. An alternative approach is to examine sedimentary records of actual events that occurred throughout the late Holocene. Sedimentary beach ridges are unique amongst the different types of storm inundation sedimentary records because they record variations in the height of total marine inundations rather than a censoring level as occurs with overwash deposits. The limitation in using beach ridges to derive return periods for inundations has been the lack of a robust statistical model that accurately describes the distribution of these events over the past several millennia. Such a model is presented here using a Generalized Extreme Value distribution and Bayesian analysis of a sand beach ridge plain record of extreme TC-generated marine inundations from northeast Australia. Using this approach, the return period of the marine inundation generated by severe TC Yasi is determined. This return period differs considerably from estimates determined using a probability-based approach, which extrapolates from a short historical record. With global climate changing and the magnitude of marine inundations expected to increase, there is mounting pressure to develop national standards for marine flood loadings on coastal buildings. Deriving accurate return periods of these events will be critical to this endeavor, and this approach will be applicable at numerous localities globally where storm deposited beach ridges occur.

  7. Understanding the impact of saharan dust aerosols on tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naeger, Aaron

    Genesis of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes is tied to convection initiated by African easterly waves (AEWs) during Northern hemisphere summer and fall seasons. The main development region is also impacted by dust aerosols transported from the Sahara. It has been hypothesized that dust aerosols can modulate the development of TCs through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interaction processes. In this study, we investigate the impact of dust aerosols on TC development using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). We first develop a technique to constrain the WRF-Chem model with a realistic three-dimensional spatial distribution of dust aerosols. The horizontal distribution of dust is specified using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived aerosol products and output from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The vertical distribution of dust is constrained using the Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). We validate our technique through in situ aircraft measurements where both showed aerosol number concentrations from 20-30 cm-3 in the atmosphere for Saharan dust moving over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Then, we use the satellite data constraint technique to nudge the WRF-Chem aerosol fields throughout the simulation of TC Florence developing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean during September 2006. Three different experiments are conducted where the aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interaction processes are either activated or deactivated in the model while all other model options are identical between the experiments. By comparing the model experiment results, the impact of the aerosol interaction processes on TC development can be understood. The results indicate that dust aerosols can delay or prevent the development of a TC as the minimum sea level pressure of TC Florence was 13 hPa higher when the aerosols interactions were activated as opposed to deactivated in the model.

  8. Response of Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity to Suppression of African Easterly Waves in a Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patricola, C. M.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Atlantic tropical cyclones and African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked on the synoptic timescale, with about 85% of observed major Atlantic hurricanes originating from AEWs (e.g., Landsea et al. 1993). However, the influence of variability in AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is not fully understood; a positive correlation between AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity exists on the interannual timescale during just some periods of the observational record (e.g., Thorncroft and Hodges, 2001; Hopsch et al. 2007). This study investigates the impact of AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using regional climate model simulations in which AEWs were either prescribed or removed through the lateral boundary condition (LBC). The control simulation (10-member ensemble) was run at 27 km resolution and used 6-hourly LBCs from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and daily NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) V2 sea surface temperature (SST) from the year 2005. In the experiment AEWs were suppressed by filtering 2-10 day variability over tropical latitudes from the eastern LBC, located along the west coast of the Sahel. The difference in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency was insignificant between the simulations in which AEWs were prescribed versus suppressed, indicating that AEWs are not necessary to maintain climatological tropical cyclone frequency even though tropical cyclones readily originate from these features. This further implies that seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency is uninfluenced by variability in AEWs, and that the value of AEW variability as a predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclones is limited to the weekly timescale. However in response to filtering AEWs, accumulated cyclone energy significantly increased by about 15% of the control simulation mean and the spatial pattern of track density shifted in association with changes in steering winds. This suggests the importance of AEWs in impacting tropical cyclone tracks through their influence on the large-scale circulation via wave-mean flow interaction.

  9. Comparative analysis of TEC disturbances over tropical cyclone zones in the North-West Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyakova, A. S.; Perevalova, N. P.

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, we study ionospheric total electron content (TEC) disturbances associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). The study relies on the statistical analysis of six cyclones of different intensity which occurred in the North-West Pacific Ocean in September-November 2005. We have used TEC data from the international network of two-frequency ground-based GPS receivers and NCEP/NCAR meteorological archive. TEC variations of different period ranges (02-20 and 20-60 min) are shown to be more intense during TC peaks under quiet geomagnetic conditions. The highest TEC variation amplitudes are registered when the wind speed in the cyclone and the TC area are maximum. The intensification of TEC disturbances is more pronounced when several cyclones occur simultaneously. We have revealed that the ionospheric response to TC can be observed only after the cyclone has reached typhoon intensity. The ionospheric response is more pronounced at low satellite elevation angles.

  10. The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunion, J.

    2012-12-01

    Infrared and microwave satellite imagery has steadily improved our ability to detect low to mid-level dry air at tropical latitudes and in the environments of tropical disturbances. However, understanding how this dry air affects the tropical atmosphere and tropical systems remains a difficult challenge. This presentation will discuss the impacts of intraseasonal low to mid-level dry air sources (e.g. the Saharan Air Layer and mid-latitude dry air intrusions) on the mean atmospheric state of the tropical North Atlantic and present new mean soundings for this region of the world. Discussion will also include recent research that is examining how the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle and associated diurnal pulses might provide a means for helping environmental dry air influence the storm environment. Special infrared GOES imagery reveals that the timing of these diurnal pulses in the TC environment are remarkably predictable in both time and space and suggests that these features steadily propagate away from the storm each day. As these diurnal pulses reach peripheral TC radii where low to mid-level dry air is place, substantial arc clouds (100s of km in length and lasting for several hours) have been observed forming along the leading edge of the pulse. It is hypothesized that the processes leading to the formation of arc cloud events can significantly impact an AEW or TC (particularly smaller, less developed systems). Specifically, the cool, dry air associated with the convectively-driven downdrafts that form arc clouds can help stabilize the middle to lower troposphere and may even act to stabilize the boundary layer. The arc clouds themselves may also act to disrupt the storm. As they race away from the convective core region, they create low-level outflow in the quadrant/semicircle of the AEW or TC in which they form. This outflow pattern counters the typical low-level inflow that is vital for TC formation and maintenance.

  11. Tropical cyclone track Analysis over Indian Coast Using Spatio-Temporal data-mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohapatra, Gyanendranath; Manjunath, Swetha; Behera, Sasmita; Mohanty, Pratap Kumar

    2015-04-01

    Tropical cyclones are a natural hazard which largely affects the lives and property with its destructive wind and heavy rainfall. Fluctuations in the frequency and intensity complicate the detection of long-term trends and play an important role in the global climate system; therefore understanding and predicting tropical cyclones track, intensity, and landfall location is of both societal and scientific significance. In this study a data-mining approach is being used to analyze the tropical cyclone track both in the temporal and spatial scale. Basically, the Indian coast line is divided into four zones viz. north east, south east in the eastern side adjoining Bay of Bengal and North west and south west in the western side adjoining Arabian sea as these coastal areas are very much vulnerable for disaster due to maximum number of landfall of Tropical Cyclones. The track and landfall associated with all the cyclones are clustered based on their intensity (Severe, moderate and low) and landfall location. The analyses are carried out for landfall location and the extent of track separately for the events happening in two seasons i.e. pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period. Along with categorization of intensity, trend analysis of track and the targeted zone of maximum damage also been studied. Algorithms are being developed for potential resilient and impact assessment of the parameters associated with cyclone disaster in the coastal region of India. One of the important objectives of this present work is also the identification of most disaster prone coastal area and becoming a part of the information support system during the cyclone period. Based on the statistics like mean, Standard Deviation, regression and correlation analysis, an index is developed which determines the level of damage and vulnerability along the coastal region. This index can be used for the early warning system of particular coastal areas for the preparedness and mitigation of future cyclone events.

  12. Characterization of the Tropical-Cyclone-Induced Multi-Hazard Extreme Distribution of Coastal Flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diez Sierra, J.; Toimil, A.; del Jesus, M.; Méndez Incera, F. J.; Medina, R.

    2014-12-01

    Coastal areas are among the most populated regions on Earth. They constitute the interface between continental land and the ocean. For this reason they are subject to complex flooding dynamics that arise from the interaction of coastal and continental dynamics. This complexity complicates the analysis of the changes induced by climate change on the distribution of extreme events. In this work, we develop a methodology to characterize the extreme distribution of flooding induced by tropical cyclones in coastal environments under different climates, considering marine dynamics (storm surge and wave run-up) and continental dynamics (precipitation and runoff).The approach followed in this work begins by selecting the tropical cyclones that affected the study area in the past; augmenting it with synthetically-generated cyclones. The maximum dissimilarity algorithm is then used on the dataset to select for dynamical downscaling the K tropical cyclones that best represent the variability on the data. Numerical simulations are carried out for these K tropical cyclones to derive the spatial fields of wind (by means of the Hydromet-Rankine Vortex model) and rainfall (using R-Clipper model) induced by the cyclone. SWAN model is used to derive the wave fields, H2D to derive the storm surge fields and a CUENCAS-like model (IH-Mole) to derive runoff fields. All the flood-inducing dynamics are the input to the RFSM-EDA model that computes flood depths for the study area.Having completed the dynamical downscaling database, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate synthetic time series of tropical cyclone occurrence. Tropical cyclone climate is related to the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) fields, which are used in turn as the main driver of a Monte Carlo simulation. Flood time series are derived from cyclone time series using the dynamical downscaling database and interpolation, for those cyclones that have not been simulated.Our hybrid approach (mixing statistical and dynamical downscaling) allows us to compute any statistic of the complete flooding distribution at every location of the study site. Moreover, making use of SST data from simulations of future climate, obtained from general circulation models, we can study the effects of climate change in these distributions of extremes.

  13. Examination of the tropical cyclone environment through comparison of COSMIC with other satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, C. M.; Fitzpatrick, P.; Lau, Y. H.

    2009-04-01

    Measurements of refractivity collected by Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites are used to examine vertical profiles of the temperature and humidity in the vicinity of tropical cyclones. As GPS radio signals can pass through thick cloud cover and precipitation, the COSMIC data can be beneficial to the analysis of remote tropical cyclones. The COSMIC data are compared against the split-band (12.0 micron minus 10.8 micron) product of the METEOSAT, and the aerosol profiles of the NASA CALIPSO satellite, to identify regions affected by a Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which typically consists of a high concentration of desert dust aerosols dispersed within a deep layer of dry air over the Atlantic Basin. Validation results for 2006, 2007, and 2008 tropical cyclones will be presented.

  14. Variations in global tropical cyclone activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation since the midtwentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotzbach, Philip J.; Oliver, Eric C. J.

    2015-05-01

    The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has been documented in previous studies to significantly impact tropical cyclone activity in all ocean basins. Most of these studies have utilized the Wheeler-Hendon index. This index is only available since 1974, the period over which remotely sensed outgoing longwave radiation data has been available. Our study utilizes a long reconstructed MJO index, based on surface pressures, which extends back to 1905. We document consistent modulation of tropical cyclone activity by the MJO in all basins over this time period. These modulations are shown to be remarkably stable over the entire analysis period. We also examine the combined impacts of El Nio-Southern Oscillation and the MJO on tropical cyclone activity in each basin over multidecadal time scales.

  15. Interactions Between Vestige Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Mid-Latitude Storms Over Mediterranean Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Eric A.; Mehta, Amita; Mugnai, Alberto; Tripoli, Gregory J.

    2007-01-01

    One of the more interesting tropical-mid-latitude interactions is one that has important effects on precipitation within the Mediterranean basin. This interaction consists of an Atlantic tropical cyclone vestige whose original disturbance travels eastward and northward across Atlantic basin, eventually intermingling with a mid-latitude cyclone entering southern Europe and/or the \\bestern Mediterranean Sea. The period for these interactions is from mid-September through November. If the tropical cyclone and its vestige is able to make the eastward Atlantic transit within the low to mid-levels, or if an upper level potential vorticity perturbation Cjet streak) emitted by a Hurricane in its latter stages within the central Atlantic is able to propagate into and along the longwave pattern affecting the western Mediterranean Sea (MED), then there is the prospect for the tropical cyclone remnant to produce a major modification of the mid-latitude storm system preparing to affect the MED region. For such an occurrence to take place, it is necessary for an amplifying baroclinic perturbation to be already situated to the rear of a longwave trough, or to be excited by the emitted jet streak to the rear of a longwave trough -- in either case, preparing to affect the western MED. The Algiers City flood of 9-10 November 2001, which killed some 700 people, was produced by a Mediterranean cyclone that had been influenced by two vestige Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1,orenzo and Noel. A published modeling study involving various of this study's authors has already described the dynamical development of the Algiers storm as it amplified from a developing baroclinic disturbance in the Rossby wave train, into a northern Africa hazardous flood system, then lingered in the western MED as a semi-intense warm core cyclone. In our new modeling experiments, we investigate the impact of what might have happened in the eventual precipitation field. had the main features of the tropical cyclones NOT interacted with thc developing baroclinic disturbance as it penetrated the western MED. To do so, we first remove the moisture and dynamical features of the two vestigial tropical cyclones from the large scale meteorological fields used to initialize the Mediterranean cyclone simulation. This is done through depletion of the moisture front associated with the two tropical cyclones, accomplished by relaxation to the suppressed east Atlantic conditions. The dynamical effects are removed through energetic destruction of the latter stages of the eastward traveling tropical cyclones, accomplished by lowering the underlying sea surface temperatures. A precipitation-distribution impact experiment is then run by initializing with the customized large-scale fields. The final precipitation-impact field is described by differencing the "impact" run from the "control" run -- the latter defined as the original simulation which intrinsically includes the effects of the two vestigial tropical cyclones.

  16. Greater frequency variability of landfalling tropical cyclones at centennial compared to seasonal and decadal scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan; Haig, Jordahna; Neil, Helen; Gillieson, David

    2007-03-01

    Assessing risk from tropical cyclones and predicting the impact of this hazard under a human altered climate is based exclusively upon the behaviour of these events over the past 50-100 yr and often less. Critical to these determinations is an understanding of the full extent of the natural variability of this hazard. The coarse resolution of millennial scale sedimentary records, brevity of the instrumental register, imprecision of longer historical accounts and lack of any long-term, high resolution records has led to the assumption that the total variability of tropical cyclone behaviour is encompassed within the seasonal to multi-decadal oscillations observed to date. We present a near 800 yr long, annual resolution isotope record of tropical cyclones in northeast Australia which displays marked centennial scale regimes. Our record demonstrates that the frequency variability of intense landfalling cyclones is greatest at centennial scale compared to seasonal and decadal oscillations. Switching between centennial scale regimes in this record occurred rapidly (10-20 yr) highlighting the importance of accounting for this phenomenon in coastal planning and risk assessment. Our study highlights the importance of obtaining high resolution multi-century records of tropical cyclone activity in order to more accurately assess future impacts of this hazard to human society.

  17. Impact Factors and Risk Analysis of Tropical Cyclones on a Highway Network.

    PubMed

    Yang, Saini; Hu, Fuyu; Jaeger, Carlo

    2016-02-01

    Coastal areas typically have high social and economic development and are likely to suffer huge losses due to tropical cyclones. These cyclones have a great impact on the transportation network, but there have been a limited number of studies about tropical-cyclone-induced transportation network functional damages, especially in Asia. This study develops an innovative measurement and analytical tool for highway network functional damage and risk in the context of a tropical cyclone, with which we explored the critical spatial characteristics of tropical cyclones with regard to functional damage to a highway network by developing linear regression models to quantify their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the network's functional risk and calculated the return periods under different damage levels. In our analyses, we consider the real-world highway network of Hainan province, China. Our results illustrate that the most important spatial characteristics were location (in particular, the midlands), travel distance, landfalling status, and origin coordinates. However, the trajectory direction did not obviously affect the results. Our analyses indicate that the highway network of Hainan province may suffer from a 90% functional damage scenario every 4.28 years. These results have critical policy implications for the transport sector in reference to emergency planning and disaster reduction. PMID:26385797

  18. The View from the Top: CALIOP Ice Water Content in the Uppermost Layer of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Avery, Melody A.; Deng, Min; Garnier, Anne; Heymsfield, Andrew; Pelon, Jacques; Powell, Kathleen A.; Trepte, Charles R.; Vaughan, Mark A.; Winker, David M.; Young, Stuart

    2012-01-01

    NASA's CALIPSO satellite carries both the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR). The lidar is ideally suited to viewing the very top of tropical cyclones, and the IIR provides critical optical and microphysical information. The lidar and the IIR data work together to understand storm clouds since they are perfectly co-located, and big tropical cyclones provide an excellent complex target for comparing the observations. There is a lot of information from these case studies for understanding both the observations and the tropical cyclones, and we are just beginning to scratch the surface of what can be learned. Many tropical cyclone cloud particle measurements are focused on the middle and lower regions of storms, but characterization of cyclone interaction with the lowermost stratosphere at the upper storm boundary may be important for determining the total momentum and moisture transport budget, and perhaps for predicting storm intensity as well. A surprising amount of cloud ice is to be found at the very top of these big storms.

  19. Radial-vertical profiles of tropical cyclone derived from dropsondes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yifang

    The scopes of this thesis research are two folds: the first one is to the construct the intensity-based composite radial-vertical profiles of tropical cyclones (TC) using GPS-based dropsonde observations and the second one is to identify the major deficiencies of Mathur vortices against the dropsonde composites of TCs. The intensity-based dropsonde composites of TCs advances our understanding of the dynamic and thermal structure of TCs of different intensity along the radial direction in and above the boundary layer where lies the devastating high wind that causes property damages and storm surges. The identification of the major deficiencies of Mathur vortices in representing the radial-vertical profiles of TC of different intensity helps to improve numerical predictions of TCs since most operational TC forecast models need to utilize bogus vortices, such as Mathur vortices, to initialize TC forecasts and simulations. We first screen all available GPS dropsonde data within and round 35 named TCs over the tropical Atlantic basin from 1996 to 2010 and pair them with TC parameters derived from the best-track data provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and select 1149 dropsondes that have continuous coverage in the lower troposphere. The composite radial-vertical profiles of tangential wind speed, temperature, mixing ratio and humidity are based for each TC category ranging from "Tropical Storm" (TS) to "Hurricane Category 1" (H1) through "Hurricane Category 5" (H5). The key findings of the dropsonde composites are: (i) all TCs have the maximum tangential wind within 1 km above the ground and a distance of 1-2 times of the radius of maximum wind (RMW) at the surface; (ii) all TCs have a cold ring surrounding the warm core near the boundary layer at a distance of 1-3 times of the RMW and the cold ring structure gradually diminishes at a higher elevation where the warm core structure prevails along the radial direction; (iii) the existence of such shallow cold ring outside the RMW explains why the maximum tangential wind is within 1 km above the ground and is outside the RMW, as required by the hydrostatic and gradient wind balance relations; (iv) one of the main differences among TCs of different intensity, besides the speed of the maximum tangential wind, is the vertical extent of near-saturated moisture air layer inside the core. A weaker TC tends to have a deep layer of the near-saturated moisture air layer whereas a stronger TC has a shallow one; (v) another main difference in the thermal structure among TCs of different intensity is the intensity and vertical extent of the warm core extending from the upper layer to the lower layer. In general, a stronger TC has a stronger warm core extending downward further into lower layer and vice versa. The features (iv) and (v) are consistent with the fact that a stronger TC tends to have stronger descending motion inside the core. The main deficiencies of Mathur vortices in representing the radial-vertical profiles of TC of different intensity are (i) Mathur vortices of all categories have the maximum wind at the surface; (ii) none of Mathur vortices have a cold ring outside the warm core near the boundary layer; (iii) Mathur vortices tend to overestimate warm core structure in reference to the horizontal mean temperature profile; (iv) Mathur vortices tend to overestimate the vertical depth of the near-saturated air layer near the boundary layer.

  20. Assessing the Importance of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Steering Currents in Anticipating Landfall Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Truchelut, R.; Hart, R. E.

    2013-12-01

    While a number of research groups offer quantitative pre-seasonal assessments of aggregate annual Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity, the literature is comparatively thin concerning methods to meaningfully quantify seasonal U.S. landfall risks. As the example of Hurricane Andrew impacting Southeast Florida in the otherwise quiet 1992 season demonstrates, an accurate probabilistic assessment of seasonal tropical cyclone threat levels would be of immense public utility and economic value; however, the methods used to predict annual activity demonstrate little skill for predicting annual count of landfalling systems of any intensity bin. Therefore, while current models are optimized to predict cumulative seasonal tropical cyclone activity, they are not ideal tools for assessing the potential for sensible impacts of storms on populated areas. This research aims to bridge the utility gap in seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting by shifting the focus of seasonal modelling to the parameters that are most closely linked to creating conditions favorable for U.S. landfalls, particularly those of destructive and costly intense hurricanes. As it is clear from the initial findings of this study that overall activity has a limited influence on sensible outcomes, this project concentrates on detecting predictability and trends in cyclogenesis location and upper-level wind steering patterns. These metrics are demonstrated to have a relationship with landfall activity in the Atlantic Basin climatological record. By aggregating historic seasonally-averaged steering patterns using newly-available reanalysis model datasets, some atmospheric and oceanic precursors to an elevated risk of North American tropical cyclone landfall have been identified. Work is ongoing to quantify the variance, persistence, and predictability of such patterns over seasonal timescales, with the aim of yielding tools that could be incorporated into tropical cyclone risk mitigation strategies.

  1. Evidence for the significant role of sea surface temperature distributions over remote tropical oceans in tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegde, Anitha Kumari; Kawamura, Ryuichi; Kawano, Tetsuya

    2015-10-01

    The role of remote ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in regulating tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics has been examined by performing numerical experiments with a regional scale model. Model simulations have been carried out to simulate typhoon Man-yi (July 2007), in our case study, under a range of SST conditions over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. The intensity and track of the cyclone have been systematically changed in sensitivity simulations of cool and warm SSTs over that region, following its peak phase. Warm oceans can substantially reduce the intensification of western North Pacific cyclones, whereas cool oceans can enhance their strength. This is intimately associated with the enhancement/weakening of the moisture supply through the moisture conveyor belt (MCB) in the lower troposphere, from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea into the vicinity of the cyclone center. When the MCB is interrupted over the South China Sea in warm SST occurrences, the large-scale transport of moisture into the cyclone system is significantly reduced, leading to the weakening of the cyclone intensity and to the eastward shift of its track. This study shows that changes in remote tropical ocean SST can also modulate TCs and thus can help in improving the forecasting of TC intensities and tracks.

  2. Factors That Influence the Size of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shuai; Toumi, Ralf; Czaja, Arnaud; Van Kan, Adrian

    2015-04-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) size is an important feature setting the extent of coastal flooding, the size of storm surge and area threatened by landfall. The importance of TC size is demonstrated comparing Hurricanes Sandy in 2012 and Bret in 1999. As a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale category-3 hurricane, the radius of gale-force wind of Hurricane Sandy exceeded 800 km prior to landfall, and the storm caused catastrophic storm surge into the New Jersey and New York coastlines, and damage up to an estimated total of 50 billion. Hurricane Bret, on the other hand, was a more intense category-4 hurricane with a radius of gale-force wind of only 140 km. Although Bret's intensity is considerable, damage was reported to be relatively light, totalling an estimated 60 million. The difference impacts are mainly caused by the difference in size. Despite the fact that a wide range of observed TC sizes has been recognised, the underlying factors that control both individual storm size and the climatological size variation remain mysterious. Here an idealized full-physics numerical cyclone model and a modified hurricane steady-state model (λ model) for TC wind profile are used to investigate the influence of environmental temperature and initial vortex properties on TC size. In the simulation we find that a sea surface temperature increase, a temperature decrease in the upper troposphere, a large or strong initial vortex can lead to the extension of TC size. The numerical model simulations show a Gaussian distribution with width, λ, of the moist entropy in the boundary layer. The width, λ, has good linear relationship with the size changes caused by different factors. With regards to TC size and intensity, we find that, unlike the intensity prediction based on the maximum potential intensity theory, it seems that there is no upper limit for TC size providing there is sufficient latent heat flux. The increase of TC size at the steady stage also causes a slight drop in intensity. In addition, a weak relationship between TC size and intensity is confirmed in the simulations, and this relationship can be understood with the λ model. The λ model correctly depicts the tangential velocity profile at the top of boundary layer (TBL). Based on the λ model, the TC size is a function of the distribution of moist entropy at the TBL given by λ, the pressure drop from the ambient environment to the eye, and the Coriolis parameter. We establish that for the size the width of the entropy distribution close to the core is more important than the environmental entropy or the difference between the environment and the core entropy. One can predict TC size by understanding what sets the width, λ.

  3. Tropical Cyclone Bejisa Near Madagascar - Duration: 13 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA's TRMM satellite flew over Cyclone Bejisa on December 29, 2013 at 1507 UTC. This 3-D animation of TRMM data revealed strong thunderstorms around Bejisa's center were reaching heights above 16....

  4. TRMM Flyby of Tropical Cyclone Narelle - Duration: 15 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animated, 3-D flyby of Major Cyclone Narelle was created using data on Jan. 11, from NASA's TRMM satellite. Narelle's wind speeds were near 132 mph. A few thunderstorm towers in Narelle's eye ...

  5. Evolution of the Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange And Analysis System (TC-IDEAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turk, J.; Chao, Y.; Haddad, Z.; Hristova-Veleva, S.; Knosp, B.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Licata, S.; Poulsen, W.; Su, H.; Tanelli, S.; Vane, D.; Vu, Q.; Goodman, H. M.; Blakeslee, R.; Conover, H.; Hall, J.; He, Y.; Regner, K.; Knapp, Ken

    2010-01-01

    The Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC-IDEAS) is being jointly developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) as part of NASA's Hurricane Science Research Program. The long-term goal is to create a comprehensive tropical cyclone database of satellite and airborne observations, in-situ measurements and model simulations containing parameters that pertain to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storms; the air-sea interaction processes; and the large-scale environment.

  6. Disaster, Deprivation and Death: Large but delayed infant mortality in the wake of Filipino tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are some of the most disastrous and damaging of climate events, and estimates of their destructive potential abound in the natural and social sciences. Nonetheless, there have been few systematic estimates of cyclones' impact on children's health. This is concerning because cyclones leave in their wake a swath of asset losses and economic deprivation, both known to be strong drivers of poor health outcomes among children. In this paper we provide a household-level estimate of the effect of tropical cyclones on infant mortality in the Philippines, a country with one of the most active cyclone climatologies in the world. We reconstruct historical cyclones with detailed spatial and temporal resolution, allowing us to estimate the multi-year effects of cyclones on individuals living in specific locations. We combine the cyclone reconstruction with woman-level fertility and mortality data from four waves of the Filipino Demographic and Health Survey, providing birth histories for over 55,000 women. In multiple regressions that control for year and region fixed effects as well as intra-annual climate variation, we find that there is a pronounced and robust increase in female infant mortality among poor families in the 12-24 months after storms hit. The estimated mortality rate among this demographic subgroup is much larger than official mortality rates reported by the Filipino government immediately after storms, implying that much of a cyclone's human cost arrives well after the storm has passed. We find that high infant mortality rates are associated with declines in poor families' income and expenditures, including consumption of food and medical services, suggesting that the mechanism by which these deaths are effected may be economic deprivation. These results indicate that a major health and welfare impact of storms has been thus far overlooked, but may be easily prevented through appropriately targeted income support policies.

  7. Thermal stress and tropical cyclones affect economic production in Central America and Caribbean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2009-12-01

    Surface temperatures and tropical cyclones have large impacts on economic production. Local cyclone energy dissipation reduces output in agriculture and tourism, while stimulating output in construction. High surface temperatures reduce output in several labor-intensive industries; a 1° C increase for two consecutive years results in production losses of ˜13%. The response is greatest during the hottest season and is non-linear, with high temperature days contributing the most to production losses. The structure of this response matches results from a large ergonomics literature, supporting the hypothesis that thermal stress reduces human performance, driving macroeconomic fluctuations. This large response of non-agricultural sectors suggests that current estimates underestimate the scale and scope of economic vulnerabilities to climate change. Responses of each industry to surface temperature, tropical cyclones and rainfall. Estimates represent the change of value-added in the industry in response to each atmospheric variables during the year of production (L=0) and the years prior (L≥1). The responses to surface temperature are triangles, tropical cyclones are squares and rainfall are crosses. Estimates are grey if none of the annual responses are significant at the α = 0.1 level. Whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals. Tourism receipts displays the five years prior (L=1-5) because of the long response of that industry to cyclones. Agriculture per worker is also plotted as circles when estimated a second time excluding mainland countries from the sample. Units are: temperature- percent change in output per 0.33°C; cyclones- percent changes in output per 1 standard deviation of tropical cyclone energy; rainfall- percent change in output per 2 cm/month.

  8. Tropical cyclones and the flood hydrology of Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, J.A.; Sturdevant-Rees, P.; Baeck, M.L.; Larsen, M.C.

    2005-01-01

    Some of the largest unit discharge flood peaks in the stream gaging records of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have occurred in Puerto Rico. Many of these flood peaks are associated with tropical cyclones. Hurricane Georges, which passed directly over the island on 21-22 September 1998, produced record flood peaks at numerous USGS stations in Puerto Rico. The hydrology and hydrometeorology of extreme flood response in Puerto Rico are examined through analyses of rainfall, based on Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar reflectivity observations and USGS rain gage observations and discharge from USGS stream gaging stations. Peak rainfall accumulations of more than 700 mm occurred in the central mountain region of the island. The largest unit discharge flood peaks, however, were located in the eastern portion of the island in areas with smaller storm total rainfall accumulations but markedly larger rainfall rates at 5-60 min timescale. Orographic precipitation mechanisms played an important role in rainfall distribution over the island of Puerto Rico. Amplification of rainfall accumulations was associated with areas of upslope motion. Elevated low-level cloud water content in regions of upslope motion played an important role in the maximum rainfall accumulations in the central mountain region of Puerto Rico. The largest unit discharge flood peaks, however, were produced by a decaying eye wall mesovortex, which resulted in a 30-45 min period of extreme rainfall rates over the eastern portion of the island. This storm element was responsible for the record flood peak of the Rio Grande de Lo??iza. The role of terrain in development and evolution of the eye wall mesovortex is unclear but is of fundamental importance for assessing extreme flood response from the storm. Hydrologic response is examined through analyses of rainfall and discharge from five pairs of drainage basins, extending from east to west over the island. These analyses point to the importance of short-term rainfall rates for extreme flood response. The hydrologic response of Puerto Rico is compared with two other extreme flood environments, the central Appalachians and Edwards Plateau of Texas. These analyses suggest that the high rainfall environment of Puerto Rico is linked to the development of a hydraulically efficient drainage system. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Problems and Associated Research Opportunities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marks, F.D.; Shay, L.K.; Barnes, G.; Black, P.; Demaria, M.; McCaul, B.; Mounari, J.; Montgomery, M.; Powell, M.; Smith, J.D.; Tuleya, B.; Tripoli, G.; Xie, Lingtian; Zehr, R.

    1998-01-01

    The Fifth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged to identify and delineate emerging research opportunities relevant to the prediction of local weather, flooding, and coastal ocean currents associated with landfalling U.S. hurricanes specifically, and tropical cyclones in general. Central to this theme are basic and applied research topics, including rapid intensity change, initialization of and parameterization in dynamical models, coupling of atmospheric and oceanic models, quantitative use of satellite information, and mobile observing strategies to acquire observations to evaluate and validate predictive models. To improve the necessary understanding of physical processes and provide the initial conditions for realistic predictions, a focused, comprehensive mobile observing system in a translating storm-coordinate system is required. Given the development of proven instrumentation and improvement of existing systems, three-dimensional atmospheric and oceanic datasets need to be acquired whenever major hurricanes threaten the United States. The spatial context of these focused three-dimensional datasets over the storm scales is provided by satellites, aircraft, expendable probes released from aircraft, and coastal (both fixed and mobile), moored, and drifting surface platforms. To take full advantage of these new observations, techniques need to be developed to objectively analyze these observations, and initialize models aimed at improving prediction of hurricane track and intensity from global-scale to mesoscale dynamical models. Multinested models allow prediction of all scales from the global, which determine long- term hurricane motion to the convective scale, which affect intensity. Development of an integrated analysis and model forecast system optimizing the use of three-dimensional observations and providing the necessary forecast skill on all relevant spatial scales is required. Detailed diagnostic analyses of these datasets will lead to improved understanding of the physical processes of hurricane motion, intensity change, the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers, and the air- sea coupling mechanisms. The ultimate aim of this effort is the construction of real-time analyses of storm surge, winds, and rain, prior to and during landfall, to improve warnings and provide local officials with the comprehensive information required for recovery efforts in the hardest hit areas as quickly as possible.

  10. Coastal boundary layer transition within tropical cyclones at landfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, James Robert

    Hurricanes pose a great risk to life and property with their high winds, excessive rainfall, wave action, and storm surge. Predicting changes within hurricanes at and near the time of landfall requires an understanding of the dynamics that drive the boundary layer flow. Forecasters predict the timing, duration, and effects of the intense winds associated with a hurricane when it comes ashore, while emergency management officials call for public evacuations based upon these forecasts. One region where understanding the magnitude and structure of the wind is critical is within the surface layer just downstream of the coastline in the onshore flow. Within this region the flow begins to adjust to changes in surface triggered by its passage from the shallow coastal waters to the less homogeneous and rougher land. This adjustment may include a slowing of the mean wind with an increase in turbulence, both resulting from the increased friction of the man-made and natural terrain. Hurricane observing programs consisting of portable and mobile equipment and regional coastal mesoscale observing networks are leading to a better understanding of the processes involved with these flow modifications. The Texas Tech University Wind Engineering Mobile Instrumented Tower Experiment (WEMITE) continues to play a leading role in the observation and analysis of the boundary layer of tropical cyclones at landfall. In order to gain further insight into the characteristics of this coastal transition zone, experiments were planned utilizing portable in-situ and remote measuring devices to be placed within the onshore flow at landfall. Experiment plan designs along with results from these experiments are discussed, including the analysis of a dataset collected by multiple institutions during the landfall of Hurricane Lili (2002) along the south-central Louisiana coast. Investigation reveals the existence of frictionally-induced changes in the boundary layer downwind of the coastline within the right semicircle with respect to Lili's forward motion. In the outer reaches of Lili, these transitions appear similar to internal boundary layers produced by flow moving over an abrupt change in surface. The impact on the magnitude of the wind within this near-shore region is a reduction of 4--10% per 10 km distance from the coast up to 50 km inland for open terrain. Results of the study show this reduction to be an exponential function of distance from the coast, which is dependent upon surface roughness. This rate of wind decay slows with farther progression inland and appears to be much faster than the rate found in some modeling studies. In contrast, near Lili's circulation center, little or no decrease in the magnitude of the mean wind was found for distances of up to 20 km inland.

  11. Condensed Water in Tropical Cyclone "Oliver", 8 February 1993

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pueschel, R. F.; Allen, D. A.; Black, C.; Faisant, S.; Ferry, G. V.; Howard, S. D.; Livingston, J. M.; Redemann, J.; Sorenson, C. E.; Verma, S.

    1995-01-01

    On February 8, 1993, the NASA DC-8 aircraft profiled from 10,000 to 37,000 feet (3.1-11.3 km) pressure altitude in a stratified section of tropical cyclone "Oliver" over the Coral Sea northeast of Australia. Size, shape and phase of cloud and precipitation particles were measured with a 2-D Greyscale probe. Cloud/precipitation particles changed from liquid to ice as soon as the freezing level was reached near 17,000 feet (5.2 km) pressure altitude. The cloud was completely glaciated at -5 C. There was no correlation between ice particle habit and ambient temperature. In the liquid phase, the precipitation-cloud drop concentration was 4.0 x 10(exp 3)/cu m, the geometric mean diameter D(sub g) = 0.5-0.7 mm, and the liquid water content 0.7-1.9 g m(exp-3). The largest particles anywhere in the cloud, dominated by fused dendrites at concentrations similar to that of raindrops (2.5 x 10(exp 3) m(exp -3)) but a higher condensed water content(5.4 g/cu m estimated) were found in the mixed phase; condensed water is removed very effectively from the mixed layer due to high settling velocities of the large mixed particles. The highest number concentration (4.9 x 10(exp 4)/cu m, smallest size (D(sub g) = 0.3-0.4 mm), largest surface area (up to 2.6 x 10 (exp 2) sq cm/cu m at 0.4- 1.0 g/cu m of condensate) existed in the ice phase at the coldest temperature (- 40 C) at 35,000 feet ( 10.7 km). Each cloud contained aerosol (haze particles) in addition to cloud particles. The aerosol total surface area exceeded that of the cirrus particles at the coldest temperature. Thus, aerosols must play a significant role in the upscattering of solar radiation. Light extinction (6.2/km) and backscatter (0.8/sr/km) was highest in the coldest portion of the cirrus cloud at the highest altitude.

  12. On the Relationship Between the Length of Season and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Officially, the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season runs from June 1 through November 30 of each year. During this 183-day interval, the vast majority of tropical cyclone onsets are found to occur. For example, in a study of the 715 tropical cyclones that occurred in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010, it was found that about 97 percent of them had their onsets during the conventional hurricane season, with the bulk (78 percent) having had onset during the late summer-early fall months of August, September, and October and with none having had onset in the month of March. For the 2014 hurricane season, it already has had the onset of its first named storm on July 1 (day of year (DOY) 182), Arthur, which formed off the east coast of Florida, rapidly growing into a category-2 hurricane with peak 1-minute sustained wind speed of about 90 kt and striking the coast of North Carolina as a category-2 hurricane on July 3. Arthur is the first hurricane larger than category-1 to strike the United States (U.S.) since the year 2008 when Ike struck Texas as a category-2 hurricane and there has not been a major hurricane (category-3 or larger) to strike the U.S. since Wilma struck Florida as a category-3 hurricane in 2005. Only two category-1 hurricanes struck the U.S. in the year 2012 (Isaac and Sandy, striking Louisiana and New York, respectively) and there were no U.S. land-falling hurricanes in 2013 (also true for the years 1962, 1973, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1990, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2009, and 2010). In recent years it has been argued that the length of season (LOS), determined as the inclusive elapsed time between the first storm day (FSD) and the last storm day (LSD) of the yearly hurricane season (i.e., when peak 1-minute sustained wind speed of at least 34 kt occurred and the tropical cyclone was not classified as 'extratropical'), has increased in length with the lengthening believed to be due to the FSD occurring sooner and the LSD occurring later and with both being related to global warming. In this study, the relationship between the LOS and tropical cyclone activity and climate is examined for the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. Estimates are also given for the LOS and LSD, as well as for the expected number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the total number of storm days (NSD), the total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), and the net tropical cyclone activity (NTCA) index for the 2014 hurricane season.

  13. Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crompton, Ryan P.; Pielke, Roger A., Jr.; McAneney, K. John

    2011-01-01

    Recent reviews have concluded that efforts to date have yet to detect or attribute an anthropogenic climate change influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone (of at least tropical storm strength) behaviour and concomitant damage. However, the possibility of identifying such influence in the future cannot be ruled out. Using projections of future tropical cyclone activity from a recent prominent study we estimate the time that it would take for anthropogenic signals to emerge in a time series of normalized US tropical cyclone losses. Depending on the global climate model(s) underpinning the projection, emergence timescales range between 120 and 550 years, reflecting a large uncertainty. It takes 260 years for an 18-model ensemble-based signal to emerge. Consequently, under the projections examined here, the detection or attribution of an anthropogenic signal in tropical cyclone loss data is extremely unlikely to occur over periods of several decades (and even longer). This caution extends more generally to global weather-related natural disaster losses.

  14. Variability in tropical cyclone heat potential over the Southwest Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malan, N.; Reason, C. J. C.; Loveday, B. R.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) has been proposed as being important for hurricane and typhoon intensity. Here, a climatology of TCHP is developed for the Southwest Indian Ocean, a basin that experiences on average 11-12 tropical cyclones per year, many of which impact on Mauritius, Reunion and Madagascar, and Mozambique. SODA data and a regional ocean model forced with the GFDL-CORE v.2b reanalysis winds and heat fluxes are used to derive TCHP values during the 1948-2007 period. The results indicate that TCHP increases through the austral summer, peaking in March. Values of TCHP above 40 kJ cm-2, suggested as the minimum needed for tropical cyclone intensification, are still present in the northern Mozambique Channel in May. A time series of TCHP spatially averaged over the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR), an important area for tropical cyclones, is presented. The model time series, which agrees well with XBT-based observations (r = 0.82, p = 0.01), shows considerable interannual variability overlaying an upward tendency that matches with an observed increase in severe tropical cyclone days in the Southwest Indian Ocean. Although an increase in severe storms is seen during 1997-2007, the increasing TCHP tendency time series after 1997 coincides with a decrease in total cyclone numbers, a mismatch that is ascribed to increased atmospheric anticyclonicity over the basin. Seasons of increased (decreased) TCHP over the SCTR appear to be associated with dry (wet) conditions over certain areas of southern and East Africa and are linked with changes in zonal wind and vertical motion in the midtroposphere.

  15. Environmental Disaster and Economic Change: Do tropical cyclones have permanent effects on economic growth and structure?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jina, A.; von der Goltz, J.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    Natural disasters have important, often devastating, effects upon economic growth and well-being. Due to this, disasters have become an active area of recent research and policy attention. However, much of this research has been narrowly focused, relying on anecdotal evidence and aggregated data to support conclusions about disaster impacts in the short-term. Employing a new global data set of tropical cyclone exposure from 1960 to 2008, we investigate in greater detail whether permanent changes in economic performance and structure can result from these extreme events in some cases. Our macro-economic analyses use the World Development Indicator dataset and have shown promising results: there are dramatic long-term economic transformations associated with tropical cyclones across a number of countries and industries. This effect is most clearly seen in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and some countries in Latin America, where negative changes in long-term growth trends are observed in the years following a large tropical cyclone. In many economies with a high exposure to tropical cyclone damage, there are noticeable structural changes within the economy. The impacts of disasters might be expressed through various economic and social channels, through direct loss of lives and infrastructure damage; for instance, the destruction of infrastructure such as ports may damage export opportunities where replacement capital is not readily available. These structural changes may have far-reaching implications for economic growth and welfare. Larger nations subjected to the impacts of tropical cyclones are thought to be able to relocate economically important activities that are damaged by cyclones, and so long-term trend changes are not observed, even for events that cause a large immediate decrease in national productivity. By investigating in a more rigorous fashion the hypothesis that the environment triggers these permanent economic changes, our work has implications for the conceptual foundations of both economic theory and sustainable development.

  16. Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate

    SciTech Connect

    Broccoli, A.J.; Manabe, S.

    1990-10-01

    The utility of current generation climate models for studying the influence of greenhouse warming on the tropical storm climatology is examined. A method developed to identify tropical cyclones is applied to a series of model integrations. The global distribution of tropical storms is simulated by these models in a generally realistic manner. While the model resolution is insufficient to reproduce the fine structure of tropical cyclones, the simulated storms become more realistic as resolution is increased. To obtain a preliminary estimate of the response of the tropical cyclone climatology, CO{sub 2} was doubled using models with varying cloud treatments and different horizontal resolutions. In the experiment with prescribed cloudiness, the number of storm-days, a combined measure of the number and duration of tropical storms, undergoes a statistically significant reduction of the number of storm-days is indicated in the experiment with cloud feedback. In both cases the response is independent of horizontal resolution. While the inconclusive nature of these experimental results highlights the uncertainties that remain in examining the details of greenhouse-gas induced climate change, the ability of the models to qualitatively simulate the tropical storm climatology suggests that they are appropriate tools for this problem.

  17. Estimation on the Compound Hazard Severity of Tropical Cyclones over Coastal China during 1949-2012 with Copula Function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Weihua; Ye, Yanting; Li, Ying

    2013-04-01

    The impact of global climate change on the activity of tropical cyclone remains a controversial problem in a variety of ocean basins, especially for issues like whether long-term trend exists or not in the past decades. One of the reasons is attributed to the fact that tropical cyclone system is very complex, which is unable to be described by a single indicator or parameter, such as central pressure, radius of maximum wind, maximum gust wind speed, or duration. The potential destructiveness of a tropical cyclone is not only determined by its intensity (maximum gust wind speed), but also other parameters, especially rainfall and duration, after landing. Therefore how to integrate all the parameters together to reflect the compound hazard severity is of great importance, under the situation that some of these parameters are inter-dependent whilst others are not. In this paper, copula function is used to describe the dependence between tropical cyclone parameters. Firstly the probability distribution functions (PDF) of all tropical cyclone parameters are fitted separately with extreme value theory, using the best track dataset of tropical cyclone over northwest Pacific Ocean from 1949 to 2012 as input. The return periods of each cyclone by different parameters are then estimated, and it can be found that the return period of one cyclone may vary dramatically by using different cyclone parameters. Secondly, in order to estimate the compound severity, the joint probability distribution is fitted with copula function by using the previously fitted PDFs of each parameter as marginal probability functions. The return periods of each landing tropical cyclone are then estimated with the joint probability distribution to represent their compound severities. Lastly, the time series of the compound hazard severity are analyzed. It is found that the compound hazard severity, which integrates the size, intensity, duration together, can better represent the overall destructiveness of landing tropical cyclones over coastal areas.

  18. Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean.

    PubMed

    Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

    2013-09-17

    Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean-atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback. PMID:23922393

  19. Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean

    PubMed Central

    Mei, Wei; Primeau, Franois; McWilliams, James C.; Pasquero, Claudia

    2013-01-01

    Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ?23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the oceanatmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback. PMID:23922393

  20. An atlas of 1976 GEOS-3 radar altimeter data for tropical cyclone studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, H. R.; Chan, B.; Givens, C.; Taylor, R.

    1979-01-01

    The means for locating and extracting GEOS-3 altimeter data acquired for the analysis of specific hurricanes, typhoons, and other tropical cyclones are presented. These data are also expected to be extremely useful in the analysis of the behavior of the altimeter instrument in the presence of severe meteorological disturbances as well as provide a data base which can be useful in the resolution of apparently anomalous geoid or sea surface characteristics. Geographic locations of 1976 tropical cyclones were correlated with the closest approaching orbits of the GEOS-3 satellite and its radar altimeter. The cyclone locations and altimeter data were correlated for the 1976 season. The area of coverage includes the northern hemisphere. This document is a sequel to NASA TM-X-69364 which covered the majority of the 1975 season.

  1. Tropical Cyclone Wind Characteristics for the Bangladesh Coast Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Islam, T.; Peterson, R. E.

    The aim of this study is to understand the characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones along the coast of Bangladesh by estimating the maximum wind speed and the maximum surge height in different locations during cyclone landfall. Using the Monte Carlo simulation procedure, 1000 simulated storms are generated for each site based on the historical inputs. The modified Holland wind field model is used to obtain the horizontal winds. A simple bathystrophic storm surge model is used in the simulation that gives maximum surge height for the locations to be struck by a simulated storm. Finally, the return periods of maximum wind speeds at different locations are calculated which provide the design wind speed for structures in coastal areas. The wind, surge and return period information can be utilized in different mitigation measures against tropical cyclones in Bangladesh such as devising a standard building code for the coastal areas and to improve the basic wind speed map of Bangladesh.

  2. The air-sea interface and surface stress under tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Soloviev, Alexander V; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark A; Haus, Brian K; Ginis, Isaac

    2014-01-01

    Tropical cyclone track prediction is steadily improving, while storm intensity prediction has seen little progress in the last quarter century. Important physics are not yet well understood and implemented in tropical cyclone forecast models. Missing and unresolved physics, especially at the air-sea interface, are among the factors limiting storm predictions. In a laboratory experiment and coordinated numerical simulation, conducted in this work, the microstructure of the air-water interface under hurricane force wind resembled Kelvin-Helmholtz shear instability between fluids with a large density difference. Supported by these observations, we bring forth the concept that the resulting two-phase environment suppresses short gravity-capillary waves and alters the aerodynamic properties of the sea surface. The unified wave-form and two-phase parameterization model shows the well-known increase of the drag coefficient (Cd) with wind speed, up to ~30 ms(-1). Around 60 ms(-1), the new parameterization predicts a local peak of Ck/Cd, under constant enthalpy exchange coefficient Ck. This peak may explain rapid intensification of some storms to major tropical cyclones and the previously reported local peak of lifetime maximum intensity (bimodal distribution) in the best-track records. The bimodal distribution of maximum lifetime intensity, however, can also be explained by environmental parameters of tropical cyclones alone. PMID:24930493

  3. An explicit three-dimensional nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tripoli, G. J.

    1992-01-01

    A nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone is performed with explicit representation of cumulus on a meso-beta scale grid and for a brief period on a meso-gamma scale grid. Individual cumulus plumes are represented by a combination of explicit resolution and a 1.5 level closure predicting turbulent kinetic energy (TKE).

  4. The air-sea interface and surface stress under tropical cyclones

    PubMed Central

    Soloviev, Alexander V.; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark A.; Haus, Brian K.; Ginis, Isaac

    2014-01-01

    Tropical cyclone track prediction is steadily improving, while storm intensity prediction has seen little progress in the last quarter century. Important physics are not yet well understood and implemented in tropical cyclone forecast models. Missing and unresolved physics, especially at the air-sea interface, are among the factors limiting storm predictions. In a laboratory experiment and coordinated numerical simulation, conducted in this work, the microstructure of the air-water interface under hurricane force wind resembled Kelvin-Helmholtz shear instability between fluids with a large density difference. Supported by these observations, we bring forth the concept that the resulting two-phase environment suppresses short gravity-capillary waves and alters the aerodynamic properties of the sea surface. The unified wave-form and two-phase parameterization model shows the well-known increase of the drag coefficient (Cd) with wind speed, up to ~30 ms−1. Around 60 ms−1, the new parameterization predicts a local peak of Ck/Cd, under constant enthalpy exchange coefficient Ck. This peak may explain rapid intensification of some storms to major tropical cyclones and the previously reported local peak of lifetime maximum intensity (bimodal distribution) in the best-track records. The bimodal distribution of maximum lifetime intensity, however, can also be explained by environmental parameters of tropical cyclones alone. PMID:24930493

  5. GPM Flyby of Tropical Cyclone Ula's Eye and Rainfall - Duration: 15 seconds.

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA Sees Tropical Cyclone Ula's Eye and Rainfall On Dec. 29, NASA's GPM saw rain was falling at a rate of over 83.6 mm (3.29 inches) per in a feeder band (of thunderstorms) northeast of the develo...

  6. The air-sea interface and surface stress under tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soloviev, Alexander V.; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark A.; Haus, Brian K.; Ginis, Isaac

    2014-06-01

    Tropical cyclone track prediction is steadily improving, while storm intensity prediction has seen little progress in the last quarter century. Important physics are not yet well understood and implemented in tropical cyclone forecast models. Missing and unresolved physics, especially at the air-sea interface, are among the factors limiting storm predictions. In a laboratory experiment and coordinated numerical simulation, conducted in this work, the microstructure of the air-water interface under hurricane force wind resembled Kelvin-Helmholtz shear instability between fluids with a large density difference. Supported by these observations, we bring forth the concept that the resulting two-phase environment suppresses short gravity-capillary waves and alters the aerodynamic properties of the sea surface. The unified wave-form and two-phase parameterization model shows the well-known increase of the drag coefficient (Cd) with wind speed, up to ~30 ms-1. Around 60 ms-1, the new parameterization predicts a local peak of Ck/Cd, under constant enthalpy exchange coefficient Ck. This peak may explain rapid intensification of some storms to major tropical cyclones and the previously reported local peak of lifetime maximum intensity (bimodal distribution) in the best-track records. The bimodal distribution of maximum lifetime intensity, however, can also be explained by environmental parameters of tropical cyclones alone.

  7. An Estimate of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2008

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    The statistics of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945-2007 are examined and estimates are given for the frequencies of occurrence of the number of tropical cyclones, number of hurricanes, number of major hurricanes, number of category 4/5 hurricanes, and number of U.S. land-falling hurricanes for the 2008 hurricane season. Also examined are the variations of peak wind speed, average peak wind speed per storm, lowest pressure, average lowest pressure per storm, recurrence rate and duration of extreme events (El Nino and La Nina), the variation of 10-yr moving averages of parametric first differences, and the association of decadal averages of frequencies of occurrence of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones against decadal averages of Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, annual mean temperature (found to be extremely important for number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes). Because the 2008 hurricane season seems destined to be one that is non-El Nino-related and is a post-1995 season, estimates of the frequencies of occurrence for the various subsets of storms should be above long-term averages.

  8. Improvement of Precipitation Retrieval for Tropical Cyclones from Passive Microwave Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitani, K. M.; Shige, S.

    2012-12-01

    In this paper, we improve a passive microwave precipitation algorithm, the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) algorithm [Aonashi et al., 2009, JMSJ]. GSMaP is available for many airborne microwave radiometers (MWRs) such as Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). GSMaP comprises two parts: forward calculation and retrieval. In forward calculation, lookup tables (LUTs) or databases showing the relationship between rainfall and MWR brightness temperatures (TBs) are produced using radiative transfer models. Retrieval consists of a rain/no-rain classification and estimation of the rainfall rates with LUTs. The algorithm uses precipitation-related variable models (precipitation profiles, drop-size distribution, etc.). TRMM Precipitation Radar (TRMM/PR) profiles are classified into 10 types (six over land, four over ocean and coast) using the PR precipitation parameters (rain area, stratiform rain-area fraction, precipitation-top level, etc.) and the ratio between the PR precipitation rates and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) flash rates. GSMaP team produces convective and stratiform precipitation profiles for these types by averaging the PR convective and stratiform precipitation profiles over prescribed rainfall bins for each type. In this averaging they use profiles relative to freezing level height (FLH) in order to exclude the influence of atmospheric temperature variations. The LUTs are calculated with the precipitation profile of the dominant precipitation type for every 5 x 5 degree point and 3 month. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are not included in 10 types. In this study, we compared the profiles between TCs and current ocean precipitation types and applied to GSMaP algorithm to improve estimation of rainfall of TCs. We analyzed TCs from Sep. 2001 to Aug. 2010 after TRMM boost. We used JAXA/EORC Tropical Cyclone Database 2A25 produced and supplied by the Earth Observation Research and application Center, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA/EORC). The locations and strengths of TCs were obtained from Joint Typhoon Warning Center and National Hurricane Center data. The profile of TC was taller than current tropical ocean precipitation types (shallow rain, organized system, transition zone). There ware significant differences between convective profiles for weak rain bins. Categorizing data according to the strength of TC and the distance from the storm center, the rain intensity at FLH near the cyclone center of category 3-5 for surface rain 1.0 mm/h was more than 5.0 mm/h. Convective profiles for strong rain bins of weaker TCs were taller than that of stronger TCs. We calculated the LUTs of TCs, leading to distinguished structure of eyes of TC though the eye and eyewall of TC looks blur in the original. We are planning to perform in-depth analysis of images of TCs from MWRs for further improvement of rainfall retrieval.

  9. Observations of Particle Size and Phase in Tropical Cyclones: Implications for Mesoscale Modeling of Microphysical Processes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McFarquhar, Greg M.; Black, Robert A.

    2004-02-01

    Mesoscale model simulations of tropical cyclones are sensitive to representations of microphysical processes, such as fall velocities of frozen hydrometeors. The majority of microphysical parameterizations are based on observations obtained in clouds not associated with tropical cyclones, and hence their suitability for use in simulations of tropical cyclones is not known. Here, representations of mass-weighted fall speed Vm for snow and graupel are examined to show that parameters describing the exponential size distributions and fall speeds of individual hydrometeors [through use of relations such as V(D) = aDb] are identically important for determining Vm. The a and b coefficients are determined by the composition and shape of snow and graupel particles; past modeling studies have not adequately considered the possible spread of a and b values. Step variations in these coefficients, associated with different fall velocity regimes, however, do not have a large impact on Vm for observed size distributions in tropical cyclones and the values of a and b used here, provided that coefficients are chosen in accordance with the sizes where the majority of mass occurs. New parameterizations for Vm are developed such that there are no inconsistencies between the diameters used to define the mass, number concentration, and fall speeds of individual hydrometeors. Effects due to previous inconsistencies in defined diameters on mass conversion rates between different hydrometeor classes (e.g., snow, graupel, cloud ice) are shown to be significant.In situ microphysical data obtained in Hurricane Norbert (1984) and Hurricane Emily (1987) with two-dimensional cloud and precipitation probes are examined to determine typical size distributions of snow and graupel particles near the melting layer. Although well represented by exponential functions, there are substantial differences in how the intercept and slope of these distributions vary with mass content when compared to observations obtained in other locations; most notably, the intercepts of the size distributions associated with tropical cyclones increase with mass content, whereas some observations outside tropical cyclones show a decrease. Differences in the characteristics of the size distributions in updraft and downdraft regions, when compared to stratiform regions, exist, especially for graupel. A new representation for size distributions associated with tropical cyclones is derived and has significant impacts on the calculation of Vm.

  10. Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550-1,500 years.

    PubMed

    Haig, Jordahna; Nott, Jonathan; Reichart, Gert-Jan

    2014-01-30

    The assessment of changes in tropical cyclone activity within the context of anthropogenically influenced climate change has been limited by the short temporal resolution of the instrumental tropical cyclone record (less than 50 years). Furthermore, controversy exists regarding the robustness of the observational record, especially before 1990. Here we show, on the basis of a new tropical cyclone activity index (CAI), that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 550 to 1,500 years. The CAI allows for a direct comparison between the modern instrumental record and long-term palaeotempest (prehistoric tropical cyclone) records derived from the (18)O/(16)O ratio of seasonally accreting carbonate layers of actively growing stalagmites. Our results reveal a repeated multicentennial cycle of tropical cyclone activity, the most recent of which commenced around AD 1700. The present cycle includes a sharp decrease in activity after 1960 in Western Australia. This is in contrast to the increasing frequency and destructiveness of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones since 1970 in the Atlantic Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean. Other studies project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones towards the end of the twenty-first century in the southwest Pacific, southern Indian and Australian regions. Our results, although based on a limited record, suggest that this may be occurring much earlier than expected. PMID:24476890

  11. Remote impact of blocking highs on the sudden track reversal of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Xia; Jianfang, Fei; Xiaogang, Huang; Cheng, Xiaoping; Yu, Kun

    2015-11-01

    Previous work showed that some tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western Pacific Ocean undergo sudden track reversal, and the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking highs (BHs) coexisted with 19 of the studied TCs with sudden track reversal. In these cases, the phase relations between the BH, the continental high (CH), the subtropical high (SH) and the suddenly reversed TCs could be classified into types A, B, C and D. Types C and D were the focal point of this follow-up study, in which Typhoon Pabuk (2007) and Lupit (2009) were employed to conduct numerical simulations. The results showed that the reversed tracks of Pabuk (2007) and Lupit (2009) could have been affected by the BH, particularly in terms of the turning location and the trend of movement after turning. Specifically, the two main features for Pabuk (2007) in the BH perturbations were the deflection of its turning point and a distinct anticlockwise rotation. Lupit (2009) deviated to the southwest and finally made landfall in the Philippines, or experienced further eastward movement, in the perturbed BH. The impact mechanisms can be attributed to the change in the vorticity field transported from the BH, leading to an intensity variation of midlatitude systems. BHs may have a positive feedback effect on the strength of the westerly trough (TR), as indicated by a weakened and strengthened TR corresponding to negative and positive BH perturbations, respectively.

  12. Seasonal forecasting of intense tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Woosuk; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Jin, Chun-Sil; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.

    2016-02-01

    Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) accompanying torrential rain and powerful wind gusts often cause substantial socio-economic losses in the regions around their landfall. This study analyzes intense TCs in the North Atlantic (NA) and the western North Pacific (WNP) basins during the period 1982-2013. Different intensity criteria are used to define intense TCs for these two basins, category 1 and above for NA and category 3 and above for WNP, because the number of TCs in the NA basin is much smaller than that in the WNP basin. Using a fuzzy clustering method, intense TC tracks in the NA and the WNP basins are classified into two and three representative patterns, respectively. On the basis of the clustering results, a track-pattern-based model is then developed for forecasting the seasonal activities of intense TCs in the two basins. Cross-validation of the model skill for 1982-2013 as well as verification of a forecast for the 2014 TC season suggest that our intense TC model is applicable to operational uses.

  13. Initial Condition Sensitivity and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Development and Intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, J.; Amerault, C. M.; Moskaitis, J.; Reinecke, A.; Reynolds, C. A.

    2012-12-01

    It has been suggested in a number of previous studies that the development of tropical cyclones and intensification may be sensitive to aspects of large-scale forcing, as well as internal mesoscale dynamics. In this study, we explore the hypothesis that the development and intensification of tropical cyclones are sensitive to small perturbations to the basic properties of the background state through organized mesoscale convection and synoptic-scale forcing. The recently developed adjoint and tangent linear models for the atmospheric portion of the nonhydrostatic Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) are used to explore the mesoscale sensitivity of tropical cyclone development and subsequent intensification (or lack of) to the initial state. A unique aspect of this system is that an exact adjoint to the explicit microphysics has been developed. The forward, adjoint and tangent linear models are applied at horizontal resolutions ranging from 10-40 km and are used to explore predictability issues for several tropical cyclones and non-developing storms. We will focus on the Western Pacific basin during the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and the ONR Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 (TCS08) experiments (fall 2008) and the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) (fall 2010). Some preliminary results from the W. Atlantic basin will be presented based on the first field phase of the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3), planned for the fall 2012. The adjoint results indicate that the short term (6-24-h) forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity (e.g., kinetic energy) are very sensitive to the initial state. The adjoint-based sensitivity fields indicate highly structured patterns in the wind, thermal, moisture, and microphysical fields that project on to the model simulated deep convection, which ultimately influences the intensification rate. The highest-resolution adjoint simulations (~10 km grid increment) indicate that the most efficient intensification is through low- and mid-level moistening and heating in banded regions that are coincident with vorticity maxima in the initial state. Optimal adjoint perturbations exhibit rapid growth for a developing case, Typhoon Nuri, and only modest growth for a nondeveloping case TCS025. The adjoint results suggest that Nuri was near the threshold for development, indicative of low predictability. The low-level sensitivity maximum and tendency for optimal perturbation growth to extend vertically through the troposphere are consistent with a "bottom-up" development process of TC development, although a secondary mid-level sensitivity maximum is present as well. Growth originates at small scales and projects on to the scale of the vortex, a manifestation of perturbations that project onto organized convection embedded in regions of cyclonic vorticity.

  14. Evaluating the impacts of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones on North America utilizing remotely-sensed and reanalysis data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Kimberly M.

    The eastern North Pacific Ocean has the highest density of tropical cyclone genesis events of any tropical basin in the world, and many of these systems form near land before moving westward. However, despite the level of tropical cyclone activity in this basin, and the proximity of the main genesis region to land, tropical cyclone behavior in the eastern North Pacific has been relatively unexplored. When synoptic conditions are favorable, moisture from northward-moving tropical cyclones can be advected into northern Mexico and the southwestern United States, often leading to the development of summertime thunderstorms during the North American monsoon season. An interaction with a mid-latitude trough produces the most rainfall, and the spatial variability of precipitation is greatly affected by the complex topography of the region. Moisture can be advected from a tropical cyclone around the subtropical ridge in place for much of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season and contribute to precipitation. This ridge, when it extends westward over the Pacific Ocean, can also prevent tropical cyclone moisture from impacting the southwestern United States. Northward-moving tropical cyclones often enter an environment with decreasing sea surface temperatures, increasing vertical wind shear, and meridional air temperature and moisture gradients. These key ingredients for extratropical transition are generally present in the eastern North Pacific, but the subtropical ridge prevents many named systems from moving northward, and only 9% of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1970 to 2011 complete ET according to cyclone phase space. However, over half of the systems that do not complete ET dissipate as cold core cyclones, a structural change that has yet to be explored in other tropical basins. It is difficult to estimate tropical cyclone intensity in a vast ocean area with few direct measurements available. The deviation angle variance technique, an objective method independent of the current techniques widely used today, was successfully applied to seven years of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones. The RMS error of 13.5 kt for all seven years is comparable to the RMS errors found for other basins.

  15. Potential Application of Airborne Passive Microwave Observations for Monitoring Inland Flooding Caused by Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hood, Robbie E.; Radley, C.D.; LaFontaine, F.J.

    2008-01-01

    Inland flooding from tropical cyclones can be a significant factor in storm-related deaths in the United States and other countries. Information collected during NASA tropical cyclone field studies suggest surface water and flooding induced by tropical cyclone precipitation can be detected and therefore monitored using passive microwave airborne radiometers. In particular, the 10.7 GHz frequency of the NASA Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) flown on the NASA ER-2 has demonstrated high resolution detection of anomalous surface water and flooding in numerous situations. This presentation will highlight the analysis of three cases utilizing primarily satellite and airborne radiometer data. Radiometer data from the 1998 Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) are utilized to detect surface water during landfalling Hurricane Georges in both the Dominican Republic and Louisiana. A third case is landfalling Tropical Storm Gert in Eastern Mexico during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment in 2005. AMPR data are compared to topographic data and vegetation indices to evaluate the significance of the surface water signature visible in the 10.7 GHz information. The results of this study suggest the benefit of an aircraft 10 GHz radiometer to provide real-time observations of surface water conditions as part of a multi-sensor flood monitoring network.

  16. On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, Allison A.; Emanuel, Kerry; Solomon, Susan

    2015-10-01

    Tropical cyclone potential intensity (Vp) is controlled by thermodynamic air-sea disequilibrium and thermodynamic efficiency, which is a function of the sea surface temperature and the tropical cyclone's outflow temperature. Observed trends and variability in Vp in each ocean basin are decomposed into contributions from these two components. Robustly detectable trends are found only in the North Atlantic, where tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cooling contributes up to a third of the increase in Vp. The contribution from disequilibrium dominates the few statistically significant Vp trends in the other basins. The results are sensitive to the data set used and details of the Vp calculation, reflecting uncertainties in TTL temperature trends and the difficulty of estimating Vp and its components. We also find that 20-71% of the interannual variability in Vp is linked to the TTL, with correlations between detrended time series of thermodynamic efficiency and Vp occurring over all ocean basins.

  17. On the interaction of Tropical Cyclone Flossie and emissions from Hawaii's Kilauea volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattantyus, Andre; Businger, Steven

    2014-06-01

    On 29 July 2013, Tropical Storm Flossie passed the Hawaiian Islands. This is the first interaction between an active, vigorously degassing volcano and a tropical cyclone captured by a vog (volcanic smog) dispersion model run over the Hawaiian Islands since operational simulations began in 2010, providing a unique opportunity to analyze the influence of robust volcanic emissions entrained into a tropical cyclone. Results from the vog dispersion model are compared with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite observations, lightning data from Vaisala's Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360), and the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar, 1988 Dual-Polarmetric Doppler radar to investigate the effect of volcanic emissions on the storm. Observations and model results suggest that aerosol loading resulted in deep convection and glaciation which in turn enhanced charge separation and promoted active lightning.

  18. Stable isotope anatomy of tropical cyclone Ita, North-Eastern Australia, April 2014.

    PubMed

    Munksgaard, Niels C; Zwart, Costijn; Kurita, Naoyuki; Bass, Adrian; Nott, Jon; Bird, Michael I

    2015-01-01

    The isotope signatures registered in speleothems during tropical cyclones (TC) provides information about the frequency and intensity of past TCs but the precise relationship between isotopic composition and the meteorology of TCs remain uncertain. Here we present continuous δ18O and δ2H data in rainfall and water vapour, as well as in discrete rainfall samples, during the passage of TC Ita and relate the evolution in isotopic compositions to local and synoptic scale meteorological observations. High-resolution data revealed a close relationship between isotopic compositions and cyclonic features such as spiral rainbands, periods of stratiform rainfall and the arrival of subtropical and tropical air masses with changing oceanic and continental moisture sources. The isotopic compositions in discrete rainfall samples were remarkably constant along the ~450 km overland path of the cyclone when taking into account the direction and distance to the eye of the cyclone at each sampling time. Near simultaneous variations in δ18O and δ2H values in rainfall and vapour and a near-equilibrium rainfall-vapour isotope fractionation indicates strong isotopic exchange between rainfall and surface inflow of vapour during the approach of the cyclone. In contrast, after the passage of spiral rainbands close to the eye of the cyclone, different moisture sources for rainfall and vapour are reflected in diverging d-excess values. High-resolution isotope studies of modern TCs refine the interpretation of stable isotope signatures found in speleothems and other paleo archives and should aim to further investigate the influence of cyclone intensity and longevity on the isotopic composition of associated rainfall. PMID:25742628

  19. Stable Isotope Anatomy of Tropical Cyclone Ita, North-Eastern Australia, April 2014

    PubMed Central

    Munksgaard, Niels C.; Zwart, Costijn; Kurita, Naoyuki; Bass, Adrian; Nott, Jon; Bird, Michael I.

    2015-01-01

    The isotope signatures registered in speleothems during tropical cyclones (TC) provides information about the frequency and intensity of past TCs but the precise relationship between isotopic composition and the meteorology of TCs remain uncertain. Here we present continuous δ18O and δ2H data in rainfall and water vapour, as well as in discrete rainfall samples, during the passage of TC Ita and relate the evolution in isotopic compositions to local and synoptic scale meteorological observations. High-resolution data revealed a close relationship between isotopic compositions and cyclonic features such as spiral rainbands, periods of stratiform rainfall and the arrival of subtropical and tropical air masses with changing oceanic and continental moisture sources. The isotopic compositions in discrete rainfall samples were remarkably constant along the ~450 km overland path of the cyclone when taking into account the direction and distance to the eye of the cyclone at each sampling time. Near simultaneous variations in δ18O and δ2H values in rainfall and vapour and a near-equilibrium rainfall-vapour isotope fractionation indicates strong isotopic exchange between rainfall and surface inflow of vapour during the approach of the cyclone. In contrast, after the passage of spiral rainbands close to the eye of the cyclone, different moisture sources for rainfall and vapour are reflected in diverging d-excess values. High-resolution isotope studies of modern TCs refine the interpretation of stable isotope signatures found in speleothems and other paleo archives and should aim to further investigate the influence of cyclone intensity and longevity on the isotopic composition of associated rainfall. PMID:25742628

  20. Paleoclimate simulations of tropical cyclones in a 36-km tropical channel model of the Last Glacial Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, J.; Galewsky, J.; Camargo, S. J.; Korty, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change and tropical cyclone (TC) climatology has been the subject of a rapidly growing body of work, and both the observational record and general circulation models' (GCM) prediction of the next century's climate have been studied to learn how TC frequency, tracks, and intensity may change with the evolving large-scale environment. We have adpoted many of the techniques successfully used to study TC climatology in a future climate for analysis of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 ka). By focusing on a climate state that is very different from either the present day or from projected future anthropogenic warming scenarios, this approach provides new insights into the links between TCs and the large-scale environmental factors that control them, and provides an improved foundation for studies of how tropical cyclones have impacted the geological record. We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in a 36-km tropical channel configuration to dynamically downscale output from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum and 20th century, both from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We have downscaled 10 years of output for the LGM and for the 20th century and developed a climatology of the downscaled tropical cyclones for each. Here we show the changes in simulated TC tracks and intensity between LGM and the 20th century and link the changes in the downscaled tropical cyclones to large-scale climate indices and vortex tracking from the GCM output.

  1. Lightning activity within tropical cyclones in the South West Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bovalo, C.; Barthe, C.; Yu, N.; Bègue, N.

    2014-07-01

    Lightning activity within 70 tropical cyclones in the South West Indian Ocean is studied using a large data set (2005-2013) provided by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). The radial and azimuthal distributions of lightning flashes are analyzed in three different regions of the basin: the open ocean, the Mozambique Channel, and the oceanic region up to 400 km off the eastern coast of Madagascar (ECM). Over the open ocean, lightning activity detected by the WWLLN is mainly found in the eyewall and decreases outward, regardless of storm intensity. Lightning activity in the eyewall of tropical cyclones is higher than in the eyewall of tropical storms. The front and the right quadrants (225° to 45°) relative to the storm motion are the regions where lightning flashes are preferentially detected. Near the ECM, lightning density in the eyewall, the inner rainbands, and the outer rainbands is quite similar, presumably owing to the proximity of land. When the system reaches tropical cyclone strength, lightning activity is mainly found in the left and rear quadrants relative to storm motion. In the Mozambique Channel, the radial and azimuthal distributions of lightning flashes are complex due to the geographical configuration of this subdomain. The relationships between lightning activity and intensity change have also been investigated for systems over the open ocean. The proportion of periods with lightning activity is higher during rapid intensity changes of tropical cyclones. During tropical storm stage, lightning activity in the outer rainbands starts increasing 18 h before a rapid intensification period. 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  2. Interannual variability of climatology and tropical cyclone tracks in North Atlantic and Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Tingzhuang

    The spatial-temporal variability of tropical cyclone tracks and their possible association with tropical cyclone landfall frequency along the United States East Coast and China East Coast are studied using Principle Component Analysis of tropical cyclone Track Density Function (TDF). Results show that North Atlantic (NA) hurricane TDF is strongly modulated by El Nino-South Oscillation, the tropical Atlantic SST dipole Mode (DM), North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. Dominant Modes of Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon TDF demonstrate strong correlation with spring and winter snow cover (SC) over the Qinghai and Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Results provide a foundation for the construction of statistical models, which project the annual number of tropical cyclone landfall along the East Coast of the United States and the coast of China. Analysis for 1990 and 2004 NA hurricane seasons revealed that the substantial variability of tropical Atlantic SST DM is a dominate factor affecting the hurricane track patterns. Study for 1978 and 2001 typhoon cases in the WNP demonstrated that the QTP SC was responsible for the differentiation in the number of landfall typhoon events in the WNP. A schematic diagram was proposed to illustrate the linkage between the DM and the NA hurricane track patterns. Accumulated gain or deficit in the surface radiation associated with the QTP SC imposes a long memory in the East Asian climate system. Variations in heat budget change the large-scale zonal circulation and further modulate the seasonal position and strength of East Asian subtropical high. A possible physical link to connect the QTP snow cover and the WNP typhoon track patterns was therefore proposed.

  3. The tropical cyclone as an element of the Earth - atmosphere - ionosphere - magnetosphere system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chernogor, L. F.

    The proposition that the tropical cyclone is an element of the land surface - ocean - atmosphere - ionosphere - magnetosphere system is justified. A block-diagram model for the principal processes taking place in the system is developed. The system and its subsystems are shown to be nonlinear. The main mechanisms of the interaction between the subsystems are discribed. The feedbacks and feed forwards existing between the subsystems are characterized by significant energetics. The cyclone affects the upper atmosphere, ionosphere and magnetosphere through acoustic gravity and electromagnetic waves as well as through quasi-static electric fields.

  4. Dynamical effects of environmental vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone motion, structure, and intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, X.; Duan, Y. H.; Yu, H.

    2007-08-01

    A series of numerical experiments on an f plane are conducted using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model, version 3 (MM5) to investigate how environmental vertical wind shear affects the motion, structure, and intensity of a tropical cyclone. The results show that a tropical cyclone has a motion component perpendicular to the vertical shear vector, first to the right of the shear and then to the left. An initially axisymmetric, upright tropical cyclone vortex develops a downshear tilt and wavenumber-one asymmetry when embedded in environmental vertical wind shear. In both small-moderate shears, a storm weakens slightly compared to that in a quiescent environment. The circulation centers between 300 hPa and the surface varies from 20 km to over 80 km. The secondary circulation becomes quite asymmetric about the surface cyclone center. As a result, convection on the upshear-right quadrant diminishes, limiting the upward heat transport in the eyewall and thus lowering the warm core and leading to a weakening of the storm. In strong vertical shear (above 12 m s-1), the vertical tilt exceeds 160 km in 48 h of simulation and the secondary circulation on the upshear side is completely destroyed with low-level outflow. The axisymmetric component of eyewall convection weakens remarkably and becomes much less penetrative. As a result, the warm core becomes weak and appears at lower levels and the storm weakens rapidly accordingly. This up-down weakening mechanism discussed in this study is different from those previously discussed. It emphasizes the penetrative role of eyewall convection in transporting heat from the ocean to the mid-upper troposphere, maintaining the warm core structure of the tropical cyclone. The vertical shear is found negative to eyewall penetrative convection.

  5. Intense convection vs. widespread precipitation: Which is more important for tropical cyclone intensification?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zipser, E. J.; Zawislak, J. A.; Liu, C.; Jiang, H.

    2012-12-01

    Ever since Malkus and Riehl introduced "hot towers" into the lexicon and stated their importance for tropical cyclone energetics, it has often been assumed that intense deep convection near the center of a tropical disturbance favors intensification. Certainly, case studies have shown intensification following "bursts" of deep convection. However, other studies have shown that intensification may be more closely related to the fractional coverage of precipitation near the cyclone center, suggesting that symmetrical latent heat release may be more important than the intensity of convection. First, we summarize recent uses of the 14-year database of TRMM Precipitation Features in tropical cyclones that have examined this issue globally. In addition, we also undertake a detailed compilation of passive microwave overpasses in 10 genesis situations, comparing measures of convective intensity (lowest Tb in the ice scattering channel) vs. measures of total rainfall in the inner core, in an attempt to learn the relative importance of symmetric vs. asymmetric convection prior to a system attaining tropical depression status.

  6. Electric Field Profiles over Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones, and Thunderstorms with an Instrumented ER-2 Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mach, Doug M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.; Bailey, Jeff C.

    2007-01-01

    Over the past several years, we have flown a set of calibrated electric field meters (FMs) on the NASA high altitude ER-2 aircraft over oceanic and landbased storms in a number of locations. These included tropical oceanic cyclones and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Atlantic ocean during the Third and Fourth Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3,1998; CAMEX-4, 2001), thunderstorms in Florida during the TExas FLorida UNderflight (TEFLUN, 1998) experiment, tropical thunderstorms in Brazil during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (TRMM LBA, 1999), and finally, hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Western Pacific and thunderstorms in Central America during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP, 2005) mission. Between these various missions we have well over 50 sorties that provide a unique insights on the different electrical environment, evolution and activity occurring in and around these various types of storms. In general, the electric fields over the tropical oceanic storms and hurricanes were less than a few kilovolts per meter at the ER-2 altitude, while the lightning rates were low. Land-based thunderstorms often produced high lightning activity and correspondingly higher electric fields.

  7. An atlas of 1977 and 1978 GEOS-3 radar altimeter data for tropical cyclone studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, H. R.; Taylor, R. L.

    1980-01-01

    All of the GEOS 3 satellite altimeter schedule information were collected with all of the available 1977 and 1978 tropical cyclone positional information. The time period covers from March 23, 1977 through Nov. 23, 1978. The geographical region includes all ocean area north of the equator divided into the following operational areas: the Atlantic area (which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico); the eastern Pacific area; the central and western Pacific area; and the Indian Ocean area. All available source material concerning tropical cyclones was collected. The date/time/location information was extracted for each disturbance. This information was compared with the GEOS 3 altimeter ON/OFF history information to determine the existence of any altimeter data close enough in both time and location to make the data potentially useful for further study (the very liberal criteria used was time less than 24 hours and location within 25 degrees). Geographic plots (cyclone versus GEOS 3 orbit track) were produced for all of the events found showing the approximate location of the cyclone and the GEOS 3 orbit traces for the full day.

  8. The inference of tropical cyclone dynamics using GOES VISSR/VAS data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, E. B.; Stout, J.

    1983-01-01

    The sequence of events observed during tropical cyclone Emily, was suggested as a possible mechanism for cyclogenesis. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) East VISSR/VAS sensors were used. The VISSR visible imagery obtained every 15 minutes was used to define the low tropospheric cyclonic vortex and upper tropospheric horizontal convergence. The VAS water vapor (channels 9 and 10) and carbon dioxide (channels 3 and 4) channels were used to infer upper and middle tropospheric subsidence by monitoring the Adiabatic compressional drying and warming, respectively, occurring within this layer. Evidence of an existing lower tropospheric cyclonic vortex was seen. The satellite derived wind vectors (length of vector is proportional to wind velocity, where the strongest winds were approximately 35 knots) are superimposed on the GOES visible image of tropical storm Emily. Vectors and low level clouds depict the center of the cyclonic vortex immediately south of the large convective cell in the center of the image. Upper tropospheric cloud tracers and rawinsonde reports along the Eastern United States suggest that the southwesterly environmental upper atmospheric flow is converging with the outflow from the convective cell north of the vortex.

  9. Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2016-01-01

    This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed () and average lowest pressure (); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal () and west longitudinal () positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index (); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy (); (7) sum and average number of storm days (); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of several climatic factors, including the (1) oceanic Nino index (); (2) Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation () index; (3) Atlantic meridional mode () index; (4) global land-ocean temperature index (); and (5) quasi-biennial oscillation () index. Lastly, the associational aspects (using both linear and nonparametric statistical tests) between selected tropical cyclone parameters and the climatic factors are examined based on their 10-year moving average trend values.

  10. Predicting tropical cyclone intensity using satellite-measured equivalent blackbody temperatures of cloud tops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gentry, R. C.; Rodgers, E.; Shenk, W. E.; Steranka, J.

    1980-01-01

    A relationship between maximum winds and satellite-measured equivalent blackbody temperatures near tropical cyclones is investigated with data from both the Atlantic and western North Pacific areas. This investigation revealed not only a significant correlation between satellite-derived equivalent blackbody temperatures and maximum winds but also a strong lag relationship between these temperatures and maximum winds. From this latter relationship a regression technique was developed to forecast 24-h changes of the maximum winds for weak (maximum winds less than or equal to 65 kt) and strong (maximum winds greater than 65 kt) tropical cyclones by utilizing the equivalent blackbody temperatures around the storm alone, together with changes in maximum winds during the preceding 24 h and the current maximum winds. Testing of these equations with independent data showed that the mean errors of forecasts made by the equations are lower than the errors in forecasts made by persistence techniques.

  11. The role of the equivalent blackbody temperature in the study of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steranka, J.; Rodgers, E. B.; Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Satellite measured equivalent blackbody temperatures of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones are used to investigate their role in describing the convection and cloud patterns of the storms and in predicting wind intensity. The high temporal resolution of the equivalent blackbody temperature measurements afforded with the geosynchronous satellite provided sequential quantitative measurements of the tropical cyclone which reveal a diurnal pattern of convection at the inner core during the early developmental stage; a diurnal pattern of cloudiness in the storm's outer circulation throughout the life cycle; a semidiurnal pattern of cloudiness in the environmental atmosphere surrounding the storms during the weak storm stage; an outward modulating atmospheric wave originating at the inner core; and long term convective bursts at the inner core prior to wind intensification.

  12. Tropical cyclone variations in Louisiana, U.S.A., since the late eighteenth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mock, Cary J.

    2008-05-01

    Plentiful documentary and pre-twentieth century instrumental data from Louisiana, U.S.A., provide a record of continuous tropical cyclones, with daily resolution dating back to the late eighteenth century. The reconstruction provided new specific information for 83 storms prior to 1872. Parts of the early and mid-nineteenth century exhibit greater tropical cyclone and hurricane activity than at any time within the last few hundred years. A major hurricane that impacted southeast Louisiana in August 1812 is very likely the closest landfalling hurricane known to impact New Orleans. The longer temporal perspective provides insight on historical hurricane impacts and information on assessing future hurricane mitigation strategies concerning potential worst-case scenarios.

  13. Impact of shifting patterns of Pacific Ocean warming on North Atlantic tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J; Curry, Judith A

    2009-07-01

    Two distinctly different forms of tropical Pacific Ocean warming are shown to have substantially different impacts on the frequency and tracks of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. The eastern Pacific warming (EPW) is identical to that of the conventional El Niño, whereas the central Pacific warming (CPW) has maximum temperature anomalies located near the dateline. In contrast to EPW events, CPW episodes are associated with a greater-than-average frequency and increasing landfall potential along the Gulf of Mexico coast and Central America. Differences are shown to be associated with the modulation of vertical wind shear in the main development region forced by differential teleconnection patterns emanating from the Pacific. The CPW is more predictable than the EPW, potentially increasing the predictability of cyclones on seasonal time scales. PMID:19574388

  14. Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, , Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.

    2009-07-01

    Two distinctly different forms of tropical Pacific Ocean warming are shown to have substantially different impacts on the frequency and tracks of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. The eastern Pacific warming (EPW) is identical to that of the conventional El Niño, whereas the central Pacific warming (CPW) has maximum temperature anomalies located near the dateline. In contrast to EPW events, CPW episodes are associated with a greater-than-average frequency and increasing landfall potential along the Gulf of Mexico coast and Central America. Differences are shown to be associated with the modulation of vertical wind shear in the main development region forced by differential teleconnection patterns emanating from the Pacific. The CPW is more predictable than the EPW, potentially increasing the predictability of cyclones on seasonal time scales.

  15. Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Using Optimized Consensus in the Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jun, S.; LEE, W.; Byun, K.; Chang, K.; Lee, J.

    2013-12-01

    This study investigates an optimized consensus method using superensemble, which had the highest skill for 2012 tropical cyclone forecast in NHC, to provide good guidance to forecasters. The superensemble forecast is partitioned into a training phase and forecast phase. In the training phase, weights and bias estimation for the models are calculated on the basis of past forecasts via linear regression. Each forecasted track (latitude, longitude) per forecast period (24h, 48h, 72h, etc.) is obtained by the regression coefficients optimized in the past 2-year training period. We used the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) analysis data as the reference value and model (ECMWF, GFS, etc.) forecast data over the western North Pacific during 2011-2013 to verify the superensemble forecast results. The optimized consensus track forecast method, e.g., the monthly weighting, typhoon track classification, has been tested for tropical cyclones in 2013.

  16. Improving Ku-band Scatterometer Ocean Surface Wind Direction Retrievals in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foster, R. C.; Zhang, J.; Black, P. G.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are regions of very strong rain and very high winds, both of which present major challenges to surface wind vector retrieval from Ku-band scatterometers. Wind speed and wind direction retrievals can incur severe errors in regions of high rain rates. One particular signature of rain contamination is wind directions in the across-swath direction, which often leads to displaced circulation centers. Recently, Stiles et al. (2014) developed a method for retrieving QuikSCAT tropical cyclone wind speeds using a neural network approach that was tuned using H*WIND surface wind analyses and passive microwave-estimated rain rates from satellites. We are developing a scene-wide methodology by which a set of dynamically-consistent wind directions can be estimated from these wind speeds. The method is based on an iterative use of a tropical cyclone-specific sea-level pressure retrieval technique that we developed. The sea-level pressure analysis uses a boundary layer model that includes the dynamical shallowing of the tropical cyclone boundary layer toward the storm center, a roll-off in surface drag at high wind speeds, and, storm motion-corrected nonlinear mean flow advection effects. Scene-wide consistency is enforced by the integral nature (with respect to the surface wind vector field) of the derived surface pressure pattern and a constraint that the geostrophic contribution to the total flow is non-divergent. We are currently developing methods to evaluate the retrieved wind directions based on HRD aircraft observations and a limited-domain wind vector partitioning of the retrieved wind vectors into irrotational, non-divergent, and, background flow deformation contributions.

  17. Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

    PubMed Central

    Reed, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. PMID:26417111

  18. Identification and analysis of high-frequency oscillations in the eyewalls of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shumin; Lu, Youyu; Li, Weibiao; Wen, Zhiping

    2015-05-01

    High-frequency oscillations, with periods of about 2 hours, are first identified by applying wavelet analysis to observed minutely wind speeds around the eye and eyewall of tropical cyclones (TCs). Analysis of a model simulation of Typhoon Hagupit (2008) shows that the oscillations also occur in the TC intensity, vertical motion, convergence activity and air density around the eyewall. Sequences of oscillations in these variables follow a certain order.

  19. Rainfall Generated By The Incidence Of Two Simultaneous Tropical Cyclones In Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, D. C.; Brena-Naranjo, J. A. A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

    2014-12-01

    The objective of this study is to characterize the registered rainfall originated from the simultaneous incidence of two tropical cyclones in Mexico, during September 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel in the Pacific and Hurricane Ingrid (category 1) in the Gulf of Mexico, made landfall during a 24 hours period on September 15 and 18, 2013. Both systems, affected 77% of Mexican territory with heavy rainfall producing landslides and severe flooding. The unprecedented occurrence of two simultaneous tropical cyclones, along with the large damages registered in the country; make evident the need for a careful examination of the rainfall produced by their simultaneous incidence. For this, we utilize information from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), in combination with data from the rain gauge observations (from 1st to 16th September 2013). The selected remotely sensed products correspond to the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), 3B42RT and 3B42V7. Additionally, we estimate the performance of the TRMM products through well-known error metrics derived from the comparison of both, registered rainfall by rain gauges and that determined from 607 TMPA cells (0.25° x 0.25° containing at least one rain gauge). Results show that rainfall produced by the incidence of both storms, is similar to that registered as if the events occurred separately, accounting for about 10% of the annual precipitation total of 2013. Moreover, spatially averaged results indicate that the product 3B42V7 is a good estimate of daily precipitation across the country, while the TMPA 3B42RT product underestimates the amount of rainfall due to cyclonic events. Therefore, TMPA products provide acceptable estimates of rainfall for large-scale cyclonic events.

  20. Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

    PubMed

    Reed, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P; Kemp, Andrew C; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

    2015-10-13

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850-1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970-2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. PMID:26417111

  1. A statistical forecast model for Tropical Cyclone Rainfall and flood events for the Hudson River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cioffi, Francesco; Conticello, Federico; Hall, Thimoty; Lall, Upmanu; Orton, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) lead to potentially severe coastal flooding through wind surge and also through rainfall-runoff processes. There is growing interest in modeling these processes simultaneously. Here, a statistical approach that can facilitate this process is presented with an application to the Hudson River Basin that is associated with the New York City metropolitan area. Three submodels are used in sequence. The first submodel is a stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones developed by Hall and Yonekura (2011). It uses archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and of sea surface temperature (SST). The second submodel translates the attributes of a tropical cyclone simulated by the first model to rainfall intensity at selected stations within the watershed of Hudson River. Two different approaches are used and compared: artificial neural network (ANN) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN). Finally, the third submodel transforms, once again, by using an ANN approach and KNN, the rainfall intensities, calculated for the ensemble of the stations, to the streamflows at specific points of the tributaries of the Hudson River. These streamflows are to be used as inputs in a hydrodynamic model that includes storm surge surge dynamics for the simulation of coastal flooding along the Hudson River. Calibration and validation of the model is carried out by using, selected tropical cyclone data since 1950, and hourly station rainfall and streamflow recorded for such extreme events. Four stream gauges (Troy dam, Mohawk River at Cohoes, Mohawk River diversion at Crescent Dam, Hudson River above lock one nr Waterford), a gauge from a tributary in the lower Hudson River, and over 20 rain gauges are used. The performance of the proposed model as tool for storm events is then analyzed and discussed.

  2. Monitoring and predicting tropical cyclone movement using geosynchronous satellite remote sensing techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubach, L. (Editor); Gentry, R. Cecil

    1986-01-01

    Data collected on special hurricane days by the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) instrument flown on a satellite in 1981 and 1982 were studied for their usefulness in forecasting motion of hurricanes. The retrieved constant pressure heights for the 500-mb surface provided the basis for reasonable forecasts of 24 hour hurricane motion. The conclusions are illustrated with examples from Hurricane Harvey (1981) and Hurricane Irene (1981). Recommendations are made for future use of the VAS type instruments for tropical cyclone forecasting.

  3. The role of surface fluxes in the development of a tropical-like cyclone in southern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miglietta, M. M.; Davolio, S.; Moscatello, A.; Pacifico, F.; Rotunno, R.

    2008-05-01

    Numerical simulations of a tropical-like cyclone in southern Italy have been performed with two different modelling systems (BOLAM-MOLOCH and WRF) with the aim of discussing the role of the surface fluxes in the development of the vortex and evaluating their intensity during the mature stage of the cyclone. Although significant differences emerge in their intensity, both the modelling systems agree in showing that the surface fluxes are more important than the latent heat release associated with convection in the initial phase of the vortex lifecycle, while they are less relevant (although more intense) when the minimum assumes the characteristic of a tropical cyclone.

  4. Degree of simulated suppression of Atlantic tropical cyclones modulated by flavour of El Niño

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.

    2016-02-01

    El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, strongly influences tropical cyclone activity. During canonical El Niño, the warm phase, Atlantic tropical cyclones are suppressed. However, the past decades have witnessed different El Niño characteristics, ranging from warming over the east Pacific cold tongue in canonical events to warming near the warm pool, known as warm pool El Niño or central Pacific El Niño. Global climate models project possible future increases in intensity of warm pool El Niño. Here we use a climate model at a resolution sufficient to explicitly simulate tropical cyclones to investigate how these flavours of El Niño may affect such cyclones. We show that Atlantic tropical cyclones are suppressed regardless of El Niño type. For the warmest 10% of each El Niño flavour, warm pool El Niño is substantially less effective at suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclones than cold tongue El Niño. However, for the same absolute warming intensity, the opposite is true. This is because less warming is required near the warm pool to satisfy the sea surface temperature threshold for deep convection, which leads to tropical cyclone suppression through vertical wind shear enhancements. We conclude that an understanding of future changes in not only location, but also intensity and frequency, of El Niño is important for forecasts and projections of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

  5. Variable-resolution frameworks for the simulation of tropical cyclones in global atmospheric general circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarzycki, Colin

    The ability of atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs) to resolve tropical cyclones in the climate system has traditionally been difficult. The challenges include adequately capturing storms which are small in size relative to model grids and the fact that key thermodynamic processes require a significant level of parameterization. At traditional GCM grid spacings of 50-300 km tropical cyclones are severely under-resolved, if not completely unresolved. This thesis explores a variable-resolution global model approach that allows for high spatial resolutions in areas of interest, such as low-latitude ocean basins where tropical cyclogenesis occurs. Such GCM designs with multi-resolution meshes serve to bridge the gap between globally-uniform grids and limited area models and have the potential to become a future tool for regional climate assessments. A statically-nested, variable-resolution option has recently been introduced into the Department of Energy/National Center for Atmospheric Research (DoE/NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model's (CAM) Spectral Element (SE) dynamical core. Using an idealized tropical cyclone test, variable-resolution meshes are shown to significantly lessen computational requirements in regional GCM studies. Furthermore, the tropical cyclone simulations are free of spurious numerical errors at the resolution interfaces. Utilizing aquaplanet simulations as an intermediate test between idealized simulations and fully-coupled climate model runs, climate statistics within refined patches are shown to be well-matched to globally-uniform simulations of the same grid spacing. Facets of the CAM version 4 (CAM4) subgrid physical parameterizations are likely too scale sensitive for variable-resolution applications, but the newer CAM5 package is vastly improved in performance at multiple grid spacings. Multi-decadal simulations following 'Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project' protocols have been conducted with variable-resolution grids. Climate statistics produced using ocean-centered, variable-resolution nests are almost identical to those from "unrefined" simulations using globally-uniform grids. Regional climatology is improved by refinement due to the better representation of topography. Lastly, tropical cyclone structure, intensity, and interannual variability in the Atlantic Ocean are all significantly improved with the use of variable-resolution grids. These attributes are well-matched to other modeling studies at similar horizontal resolutions while only requiring a fraction of the computational cost, highlighting the potential of using variable-resolution GCMs to simulate small-scale phenomena.

  6. A complete tropical cyclone radial wind structure model and comprehensive comparison with observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavas, D. R.; Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.

    2014-12-01

    This work develops a simple model for the complete radial structure of the tropical cyclone wind field at the top of the boundary layer. The model is constructed by mathematically merging existing theoretical solutions for the radial wind structure in the inner convecting and outer non-convecting regions. The model is then evaluated against three observational datasets. First, the outer solution is tested against a global database from the QuikSCAT satellite (1999-2009) and found to reproduce the characteristic wind structure of tropical cyclones at large radii where convection is absent, suggesting that it successfully captures the physics of this region. Second, the inner solution is tested against the HWind database (2004-2012) for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins and are shown to credibly represent the inner-core structure but substantially underestimate wind speeds at large radii. The complete model is then shown to largely rectify this underestimation, particularly at higher intensities. Finally, model variability is compared with the Extended Best Track dataset (1988-2013). The complete model exhibits two modes of variability corresponding to the independent variations in storm size and in inner structure that mirror that observed in nature, including the independent variability of the inner and outer regions of tropical cyclones. More broadly, the model provides insight into clear definitions of the terms "size" and "structure" and their respective, independent variabilities.

  7. Temperature Perturbations in a Tropical Middle Atmosphere Associated with Cyclonic Storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Appu, K.; Pillai, R.; Ramkumar, G.; Sasi, M.

    An observational study is carried out on the thermal structure of the stratosphere and mesosphere over Trivandrum (8o32'N, 76o 52'E) in association with tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Temperature data (~20-75Km) are from the weekly M100 Rocket launchings conducted from Thumba during the period 1971-1993 and data on cyclonic storms from the cyclone tracks published by India Meteorological Department. Twent y -five numbers of rocket-measured temperature profiles are available during the prevalence of the cyclones and another set of around 200 numbers during the formative and dissipating stages of the cyclones. It is found that warmings generally take place in the stratospheric and mesospheric regions during cyclonic storms, irrespective of locations and seasons of their occurrence. The amplitude of the mesospheric warmings is strongly correlated with the strength (life and fall at the central pressure) of the storms occurring during the post-monsoon periods. On such occasions the amplitude of the warming linearly varies for about 2oC per day of the life of the storms and per about 4hPa pressure fall. The intensity of the mesospheric warming seems to be an indicator of the strength of an existing storm. Temperature variations are prominent associated with the storms having life more than around 3 days. The presence of warmings in the stratosphere and mesosphere during the depression can be considered as an indicator of the existing depression to intensify into a cyclone. The temperature warmings weaken along with the dissipation of the storms and followed by cooling in the mesosphere which persists for about two weeks. If another storm develops during this cooling period, then the aforesaid warming characteristics are generally absent, probably as a result of the interaction with the cooler mesosphere. Hence the study reveals, for the first time, an observational evidence for a linkage between tropical cyclones and temperatures in the stratosphere and mesosphere (extending up to an altitude of around 75 kms). The enormous amount of latent heat released during TCs can be a source mechanism for the observed temperature changes. The strong temperature perturbations during TCs may have significant implications in the dynamic, radiative and ionospheric processes of the middle atmosphere.

  8. Sensitivities of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Friction and the Coriolis Parameter in a 2-D Cloud-Resolving Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivities to surface friction and the Coriolis parameter in tropical cyclogenesis are studied using an axisymmetric version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. Our experiments demonstrate that tropical cyclogenesis can still occur without surface friction. However, the resulting tropical cyclone has very unrealistic structure. Surface friction plays an important role of giving the tropical cyclones their observed smaller size and diminished intensity. Sensitivity of the cyclogenesis process to surface friction. in terms of kinetic energy growth, has different signs in different phases of the tropical cyclone. Contrary to the notion of Ekman pumping efficiency, which implies a preference for the highest Coriolis parameter in the growth rate if all other parameters are unchanged, our experiments show no such preference.

  9. Cyclone Driven Sediment Loads in a Tropical Mega-River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darby, S. E.; Leyland, J.; Hackney, C. R.; Heasley, E.; Kummu, M.; Lauri, H.; Parsons, D. R.; Nicholas, A. P.; Aalto, R. E.; Best, J.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the links between environmental change and sediment transport in the mega-rivers that dominate the flux of terrestrial sediment to the oceans remains a major challenge. Many large river systems display significant seasonality in flow regime, which is affected to a greater or lesser degree by the influence of large tropical storms, which act to increase their variability and thus drive uncertainty in predicting the impacts associated with changes in future flow regimes. Here we quantify the significance of tropical storms in driving sediment flux from one of the world's largest rivers, the Mekong. Data was collected at Kratie, Cambodia; this being the site of the Mekong's final reliable flow gauging station before the Mekong delta. Suspended sediment fluxes were estimated by calibrating acoustic backscatter returns from an acoustic Doppler current profiler to observed suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) across a monsoon cycle. The retrieved SSCs were combined with flow velocity estimates to recover the sediment flux. These estimates of flux were then used to build sediment rating curves, taking account of hysteresis effects associated with sediment starvation on the falling limb of the Mekong's flood pulse, to predict suspended flux as a function of flow discharge. The derived sediment rating curves were then employed in an effective discharge analysis, initially using gauged flows, which include the effects of tropical storms, for the period 1981-2013. A hydrological model was then used to estimate daily discharge values for the same historical period, but for a scenario in which the effects of tropical storms on the flow regime are isolated. This was achieved by forcing the hydrological model with daily precipitation values that account for precipitation anomalies associated with observed tropical storms. The difference in cumulative sediment transport estimated by combining the two flow discharge scenarios with the constructed sediment rating curves allowed the contribution of tropical storms to the Lower Mekong's suspended sediment transport regime to be isolated. This paper will outline the details of the methods employed and discuss the implications of the finding regarding the influence of the monsoon-tropical storm system in effluxing sediment to the Mekong delta.

  10. Numerical forecast and analysis of a tropical-like cyclone in the Ionian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davolio, S.; Miglietta, M. M.; Moscatello, A.; Pacifico, F.; Buzzi, A.; Rotunno, R.

    2009-04-01

    A forecasting system has been implemented for operational weather prediction over southern Italy in the framework of the RISKMED (INTERREG IIIB) project, which aims at weather-risk reduction in the central and eastern Mediterranean area. The system comprises two different regional forecasting chains, one based on BOLAM and MOLOCH models, the second based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 26 September 2006, a subsynoptic-scale vortex developed over the Mediterranean Sea and affected south-eastern Italy. The cyclone was documented by radar reflectivity maps, Meteosat Second Generation satellite images and surface stations data. The observational analysis showed that the cyclone possessed the typical characteristics of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone. All the limited-area models employed in RISKMED were able to properly forecast the formation of the small-scale vortex, although with differences in intensity, trajectory and evolution. The predictability of the event has been evaluated employing a multi-model, multi-analysis approach. The simulation results show strong sensitivity to the specification of the initial and boundary conditions. Sensitivity experiments were performed in order to analyse the mechanisms responsible for the development and the maintenance of the cyclone over the sea. The life cycle of the vortex turned out to be characterized by different phases: the orographic cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains; the initial phase of development, characterised by the critical role played by the surface heat fluxes; the transition to a tropical-like cyclone mainly as a consequence of the latent-heat release associated with strong convective activity over the Ionian Sea; finally, the maintenance of the vortex strength due to both the surface fluxes and the release of latent heat.

  11. Identifying recharge from tropical cyclonic storms, Baja California Sur, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Eastoe, Christopher J; Hess, Greg; Mahieux, Susana

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater in the Todos Santos watershed in southern Baja California, and throughout the peninsula south of latitude 28°N, has values of (δ18 O‰, δD‰) ranging between (-8.3, -57) and (-10.9, -78). Such negative values are uncharacteristic of the site latitude near the sea level. Altitude effects do not explain the isotope data. Tropical depressions originating along the Pacific coast of North America yield rain with isotopic depletion; rain from these weather systems in southern Arizona commonly has δ18O values<-10‰ in comparison with amount-weighted mean summer and fall rain at -6‰. Isotope data indicate hurricane rain as the predominant source of recharge in southern Baja California, where named tropical depressions bring large rains (>50 mm) at least once every 2 to 3 years, and along the Pacific coast between Jalisco and Oaxaca. PMID:24635484

  12. Large-scale factors in tropical and extratropical cyclone transition and extreme weather events.

    PubMed

    Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Simmonds, Ian

    2008-12-01

    Transition mechanisms characterizing changes from hurricanes to midlatitude cyclones and vice-versa (extratropical and tropical transition) have become a topic of increasing interest, partially because of their association with recent unusual storms that have developed in different ocean basins of both hemispheres. The aim of this work is to discuss some recent cases of transition and highly unusual hurricane developments and to address some of their wider implications for climate science. Frequently those dramatic cyclones are responsible for severe weather, potentially causing significant damage to property and infrastructure. An additional manifestation discussed here is their association with cold surges, a topic that has been very little explored in the literature. In the Southern Hemisphere, the first South Atlantic hurricane, Catarina, developed in March 2004 under very unusual large-scale conditions. That exceptional cyclone is viewed as a case of tropical transition facilitated by a well-developed blocking structure. A new index for monitoring tropical transition in the subtropical South Atlantic is discussed. This "South Atlantic index" is used to show that the unusual flow during and prior to Catarina's genesis can be attributed to tropical/extratropical interaction mechanisms. The "Donald Duck" case in Australia and Vince in the North Atlantic have also been examined and shown to belong to a category of hybrid-transitioning systems that will achieve at least partial tropical transition. While clearly more research is needed on the topic of transition, as we gain further insight, it is becoming increasingly apparent that features of large-scale circulation do play a fundamental role. A complex interaction between an extratropical transition case and an extreme summer cold surge affecting southeastern Australia is discussed as an example of wider climate implications. PMID:19076416

  13. Tropical cyclones and permanent El Niño in the early Pliocene epoch.

    PubMed

    Fedorov, Alexey V; Brierley, Christopher M; Emanuel, Kerry

    2010-02-25

    Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes and typhoons) are now believed to be an important component of the Earth's climate system. In particular, by vigorously mixing the upper ocean, they can affect the ocean's heat uptake, poleward heat transport, and hence global temperatures. Changes in the distribution and frequency of tropical cyclones could therefore become an important element of the climate response to global warming. A potential analogue to modern greenhouse conditions, the climate of the early Pliocene epoch (approximately 5 to 3 million years ago) can provide important clues to this response. Here we describe a positive feedback between hurricanes and the upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean that may have been essential for maintaining warm, El Niño-like conditions during the early Pliocene. This feedback is based on the ability of hurricanes to warm water parcels that travel towards the Equator at shallow depths and then resurface in the eastern equatorial Pacific as part of the ocean's wind-driven circulation. In the present climate, very few hurricane tracks intersect the parcel trajectories; consequently, there is little heat exchange between waters at such depths and the surface. More frequent and/or stronger hurricanes in the central Pacific imply greater heating of the parcels, warmer temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, warmer tropics and, in turn, even more hurricanes. Using a downscaling hurricane model, we show dramatic shifts in the tropical cyclone distribution for the early Pliocene that favour this feedback. Further calculations with a coupled climate model support our conclusions. The proposed feedback should be relevant to past equable climates and potentially to contemporary climate change. PMID:20182509

  14. Near-inertial ocean response to tropical cyclone forcing on the Australian North-West Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rayson, M. D.; Ivey, G. N.; Jones, N. L.; Lowe, R. J.; Wake, G. W.; McConochie, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was applied to the Australian North-West Shelf (NWS) to hindcast the ocean response to four intense historical tropical cyclones (TCs). While the four cyclones had very different trajectories across the NWS, all passed within 150 km of a long-term vertical mooring located on the continental shelf in 125 m depth. The observed ocean response at this relatively shallow, Southern Hemisphere shelf site was characterized by the development of a peak in the counter-clockwise (CCW) near-inertial kinetic energy, mixed layer deepening, and subsequent restratification. Strong near-inertial isotherm oscillations were also observed following two of the cyclones. ROMS reproduced these features and also showed that the peak in the near-inertial CCW kinetic energy was observed on the left side of each cyclone trajectory. The time rate of change of near-inertial kinetic energy depended strongly on the storm Rossby number, i.e., defined based on the storm speed, the storm length scale, and the Coriolis frequency. The shallow water depth on the NWS resulted in first, a more rapid decay of near-inertial oscillations than in the deep ocean, and second a generation efficiency (the ratio of near-inertial power to the rate of wind work) of up to 10%, smaller than found for cyclones propagating across deeper water. The total energy put into near-inertial motions is nevertheless large compared to the background tidal energy. The rapid decay of near-inertial motions emphasizes the importance of frictional effects in characterizing the response to cyclone forcing in shallow seas.

  15. Characterizing multi-hazard extreme distributions of coastal flooding induced by tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Díez-Sierra, Javier; Toimil, Alexandra; del Jesus, Manuel; Méndez, Fernando; Medina, Raúl

    2015-04-01

    Coastal areas, which are among the most populated regions on Earth, are the interface between continental land and the ocean. As a consequence of their location, they are subject to complex flooding dynamics, arising from the interaction between coastal and continental dynamics. This complexity is translated to the characterization of extreme distributions and the effects induced by climate change in the distribution of extreme events. In this work, we develop a methodology that serves to characterize the extreme distribution of flooding in a coastal environment. We focus in the dynamics induced by tropical cyclones that are both marine (storm surge and wave run-up) and continental (precipitation and runoff). Our approach makes uses of historical cyclones that have affected the study area in the past. This ensemble is augmented by synthetically generated cyclones in order to better cover the range of possible tracks. A maximum dissimilarity algorithm is used on the augmented database to select a reduced subset of tracks best representing the variability on the data (Camus et al. 2014). This subset is used to carry out a dynamical downscaling. Numerical simulations are carried out for these subset of tropical cyclones to derive the spatial fields of wind (by means of the Hydromet-Rankine Vortex model) and rainfall (using R-Clipper model) induced by the cyclone. SWAN model is used to derive the wave fields (Díaz et al. 2014), H2D to derive the storm surge fields and a CUENCAS-like model (IH-Mole) to derive runoff fields. All the flood-inducing dynamics are the input to the RFSM-EDA model that computes flood depths for the study area. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate synthetic time series of tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone climate is related to the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) fields using a non-linear clustering technique, which are used in turn as the main driver of a Monte Carlo simulation. Flood time series are derived from cyclone time series using the dynamical downscaling database and interpolation, for those cyclones that have not been simulated. Our hybrid approach (mixing statistical and dynamical downscaling) allows us to compute any statistic of the complete flooding distribution at every location of the study site. Moreover, making use of SST data from simulations of future climate, obtained from general circulation models (AOGCM), we can study the effects of climate change in these distributions of extremes. Diaz-Hernandez, G., Mendez, F. J., & Mínguez, R. (2014). Numerical analysis and diagnosis of the hydrodynamic effects produced by hurricane Gordon on the coast of Spain. Weather and Forecasting, (2014). Camus, P., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F. J., Izaguirre, C., Espejo, A., Cánovas, V., Pérez, J., Rueda, A., Losada, I.J. & Medina, R. (2014). A weather-type statistical downscaling framework for ocean wave climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119(11), 7389-7405.

  16. Intensification of premonsoon tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and its impacts on Myanmar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shih-Yu; Buckley, Brendan M.; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Fosu, Boniface

    2013-05-01

    analyze multiple global reanalysis and precipitation datasets in order to explain the dynamic mechanisms that lead to an observed intensification of the monsoon trough and associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) during the premonsoon month of May. We find that post-1979 increases in both premonsoon precipitation and TC intensity are a result of enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, characterized by lower-level cyclonic and upper-level anticyclonic anomalies. Such circulation anomalies are manifest of the tropospheric expansion that is caused by regional warming. The deepened monsoon trough in the BOB not only affects TC frequency and timing, but also acts to direct more cyclones towards Myanmar. We propose that increasing sea surface temperature in the BOB has contributed to an increase in cyclone intensity. Our analyses of the Community Earth System Model single-forcing experiments suggest that tropospheric warming and a deepening of the monsoon trough can be explained by two discreet anthropogenic causes—an increase in absorption due to aerosol loading and an increase in the land-ocean thermal contrast that results from increased greenhouse gases. The ensuing circulation changes provide favorable conditions for TCs to grow and to track eastward towards Myanmar.

  17. Impact of surface coupling grids on tropical cyclone extremes in high-resolution atmospheric simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarzycki, Colin M.; Reed, Kevin A.; Bacmeister, Julio T.; Craig, Anthony P.; Bates, Susan C.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.

    2016-02-01

    This paper discusses the sensitivity of tropical cyclone climatology to surface coupling strategy in high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model. Using two supported model setups, we demonstrate that the choice of grid on which the lowest model level wind stress and surface fluxes are computed may lead to differences in cyclone strength in multi-decadal climate simulations, particularly for the most intense cyclones. Using a deterministic framework, we show that when these surface quantities are calculated on an ocean grid that is coarser than the atmosphere, the computed frictional stress is misaligned with wind vectors in individual atmospheric grid cells. This reduces the effective surface drag, and results in more intense cyclones when compared to a model configuration where the ocean and atmosphere are of equivalent resolution. Our results demonstrate that the choice of computation grid for atmosphere-ocean interactions is non-negligible when considering climate extremes at high horizontal resolution, especially when model components are on highly disparate grids.

  18. Impact of tropical cyclones on aerosol properties over urban region of Hyderabad, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kharol, Shailesh Kumar; Badarinath, K. V. S.; Rani Sharma, Anu; Krishna Prasad, V.; Kaskaoutis, Dimitrios G.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Kambezidis, Harry D.

    2010-05-01

    Fierce tropical cyclones occur in India during the pre-monsoon (spring), early monsoon (early summer), or post-monsoon (fall) periods. Originating in both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, tropical cyclones often attain velocities of more than 100 kmh-1 and are notorious for causing intense rain and tidal waves as they cross the Indian coast. Cyclones are associated with heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and sometimes, storm surges. In the present study, we have analyzed the changes in aerosol properties at Hyderabad, India, associated with very severe cyclonic storm "Mala" occurred during the last week of April, 2006 over the Central-Eastern part of the Bay of Bengal centered near Lat. 16.0 N and Long. 93.0 E, at 18:00 UTC on 28th April 2006, about 500 Km North of Portblair. This tropical cyclone, packing winds of 240 km/h, slammed into Myanmar on 28th April and 29th April destroying hundreds of houses, two beach resorts and at least five factories as per the reports of the Kyemon daily paper and the International Federation of the Red Cross. Cyclone "Mala" is described as the most severe cyclone in the Bay of Bengal after the 1999 Orissa Super Cyclone. The measurements for the case study were carried out in the premises of the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) campus at Balanagar (17o.28' N and 78o.26' E) located within the Hyderabad urban center during cyclone period. Synchronous and continuous observations of columnar Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) were carried out using a handheld multi-channel sun-photometer (Microtops-II, Solar Light Co., USA) at six wavelength bands centered around 380, 440, 500, 675, 870 and 1020 nm. Continuous measurements of particulate matter (PM) grain-size distribution were performed with the GRIMM aerosol spectrometer, model 1-108. The cyclone "Mala" over the Bay of Bengal occurred during 26-29 April, 2006, struck the coast of Myanmar with winds of 115 mph (185 kmh-1), causing severe damage and loss of human life on 29 April, 2006. Initially the depression was moving northwest and on 25 April it changed its direction and accelerated towards north and after northeast resulting in remarkable wind direction changes. As the cyclone moved towards the Myanmar coast on 29 and 30 April, the low-level convergence turned to northwesterly, pulling air from the northern Indian landscapes. This caused an increase in wind speed over the entire Bay of Bengal. The intensity of the cyclonic activity affected continental India on 28 and 29 April. On that day the wind field was dominated by a northwesterly flow from Indian continent towards the Bay of Bengal, which lifted a lot of mineral dust particles from the Indian arid landscapes. This is further confirmed from the analysis of Terra-MODIS image on 29 April, where the dust plumes over the Bay of Bengal can be clearly detected. The variation of the daily mean particulate-matter load measured by the GRIMM instrument showed nearly a two-fold increase in particulate-mass concentrations during the intense cyclone period (28th and 29th April). This is attributed to the increase in surface winds caused by the cyclonic activity, strongly associated with lifting of coarse-mode aerosols from the landscapes neighboring Hyderabad. Also, from the large standard deviations it is concluded that the diurnal pattern of the PMx concentrations are highly variable during the cyclonic activity, probably caused by the frequent and sharp changes in wind speed and direction accompanying it. The day-to-day variation of AOD500 and Ångström exponent α were also analysed. Contrary to the PMx concentrations, the AOD500 values showed remarkable decrease during the cyclone period. This decrease can be as high as 44% between the pre and during cyclone days (25th and 28th April), respectively and 41% between 28 and 30 April. These large variations in aerosol load are mainly attributed to the changes in wind speed and direction as well as the air mass trajectories, bringing marine air masses over the region on 28th April. Despite the uplifting of soil particles near the surface, the higher winds can act as a ventilation tool for the whole atmospheric column, thus resulting in lower AODs. Results are discussed in the paper.

  19. Mesoscale Aspects of the Downshear Reformation of a Tropical Cyclone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance fights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 m/s and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of: rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intense.

  20. Decadal variation of ocean heat content and tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nath, Sankar; Kotal, S. D.; Kundu, P. K.

    2016-02-01

    The upper ocean heat content up to 700 m depth (OHC700) is an important climatic parameter required for atmospheric and oceanographic studies like a cyclone. In this study, therefore, an attempt has been made to examine the inter-decadal variations of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and OHC700 over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) for the post-monsoon season (October-December) during 1955-2013 periods. The sea-surface temperature (SST), geopotential height at 500 hPa, low-level vorticity at 850 hPa, vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, middle tropospheric humidity at 500 hPa and outgoing long-wave radiation are also being studied using seasonal mean data. The results show a significant inter-decadal variation during 1955-2013, with two distinct decadal periods: active decadal period (ADP) (1955-1988) and inactive decadal period (IDP) (1989-2013). The anomalies of these parameters are opposite in phase for two periods. It is found that the large scale atmospheric features and oceanic parameters have significant inter-decadal variability, but frequency of the tropical cyclone is attributed to the variation in the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions rather than the variation of oceanic parameters OHC700 and SSTs during the post-monsoon season.

  1. Numerical modeling of wind waves generated by tropical cyclones using moving grids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolman, Hendrik L.; Alves, Jose-Henrique G. M.

    A version of the WAVEWATCH III wave model featuring a continuously moving spatial grid is presented. The new model option/version is intended for research into wind waves generated by tropical cyclones in deep water away from the coast. The main advantage of such an approach is that the cyclones can be modeled with spatial grids that cover much smaller areas than conventional fixed grids, making model runs with high spatial resolution more economically feasible. The model modifications necessary are fairly trivial. Most complications occur due to the Garden Sprinkler effect (GSE) and methods used to mitigate it. The basic testing of the model is performed using idealized wind fields consisting of a Rankine vortex. The model is also applied to hurricane Lili in the Gulf of Mexico in October 2002. The latter application shows that the moving grid approach provides a natural way to deal with hurricane wind fields that have a high-resolution in space, but a low resolution in time. Although the new model version is originally intended for tropical cyclones, it is suitable for high-resolution modeling of waves due to any moving weather pattern.

  2. Impact of Parameterized Warm-Rain Microphysical Processes on Simulated Tropical Cyclone Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grell, Evelyn D.; Michelson, Sara A.; Bao, Jian-Wen

    2014-05-01

    This is a presentation of a study in which the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to investigate the impact of parameterized warm-rain processes in three bulk microphysics parameterization (MP) schemes on the model-simulated tropical cyclone development. The three MP schemes investigated are the Ferrier single-moment 3-category, the WRF single-moment 6-category (WSM6) and the Thompson double-moment 6-category schemes. By diagnosing the source and sink terms of the hydrometeor budget equations, we found that the differences in the warm-rain production rate, particularly by conversion of cloud water to rain water, contribute significantly to the variations in the frozen hydrometeor production and in the overall latent heat release above the freezing level. These differences in parameterized warm-rain production reflect the basic differences of the schemes in the definition of rain droplet size distribution and consequently in spectrum-dependent microphysical processes such as accretion growth of frozen hydrometeors and their sedimentation. Hydrometeor budget analysis of the three schemes indicates that the assumed pathways to the production of frozen hydrometeors are quite sensitive to the amount of available super-cooled rain water and, thus, the uncertainties in the parameterized warm-rain processes can affect the intensification and structure of the model-simulated tropical cyclone. Results from this study strongly suggest that the differences in the single- and double-moment formulations of the three schemes are not the primary factor causing the schemes to behave differently in the tropical environment. More importantly, model users should be aware of the impact of the assumed hydrometeor size distributions on results when choosing any MP scheme for tropical cyclone simulations.

  3. Global near-realtime monitoring of Tropical Cyclones Using Weather Satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, T.; Hawkins, J.; Turk, F.; Miller, S.; Sampson, C.; Kuciauskas, A.; Richardson, K.; Kent, J.

    2006-12-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory maintains a satellite web portal that monitors global tropical cyclones in every basin on a continuing basis. The portal is used routinely by agencies around the world in forecasting operations and the issuance of warnings. Products from this site are widely redistributed and published frequently in journal articles, seasonal storm summaries, and ongoing World Wide Web discussions. Traditionally, weather satellite reconnaissance of tropical cyclones has depended on the interpretation of visible and infrared imagery. But such methods have limitations. Visible images are not available during the nighttime, and both kinds of imagery often fail to detect important structure, including storm eyes, which are vital for determining the strength and location of tropical systems. Thus, the portal supplements visible and infrared coverage with products from satellite microwave sensors. These sensors penetrate higher clouds to reveal important detail about low-level cloud and precipitation features. The first part of the talk will discuss how these various products can be used together for improved analysis. The second part of talk will present information about tropical cyclone structure. Surface winds from aircraft will be compared to features seen in passive microwave images. We see that low brightness temperature features on 85 GHz images often corresponding to wind maxima near the sea surface. We shall make some inferences about how the observation of specific structures in satellite images can help characterize the wind field when no aircraft data are available. Special attention will be paid to multiple eye walls apparent on satellite images. These are associated with very intense storms which undergo an evolutionary process not observed in weaker systems.

  4. Tropical Cyclones and Ice Cores: Developing a Long Term Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urmann, D.

    2006-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of seasonal typhoon activity in the northwestern Pacific are of critical importance to the people living in the densely populated coastal cities of east Asia. The El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key component of these forecasts as past observations indicate that El Nio (La Nia) events are associated with an increase (decrease) in the proportion of typhoons striking Japan, Korea and Taiwan (The Philippines and the South China Sea). The ice core-derived ?18O record from the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) is strongly correlated (r=0.646, p<0.001, 1856-2003) with sea surface temperatures (SST) in NINO 4, a region of the western equatorial Pacific that is a sensitive recorder of ENSO. Additionally, a direct relationship is observed between ?18O and both the mean longitude of typhoon development (r=0.59, p<.001, 1945-2003) and the number of typhoon days (r=0.59, p<.001, 1945-2003). The typhoon and ice core ?18O records exhibit patterns of decadal-scale variability that closely resemble the longer-term variations in NINO 4 SSTs (decadal NINO 4 SST variability is known as the "Decadal ENSO"). Annual values of ?18O are significantly different (p=.05) between La Nia and El Nio years suggesting that ?18O reflects not only the Decadal ENSO but also the superimposed interannual ENSO variability. ENSO-driven shifts in the SSTs and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns may provide a physical linkage to explain the observed relationships among ?18O, SSTs and typhoon activity. The effect of the ongoing warming on ENSO is unclear, but any changes in the background frequency or intensity of ENSO events would likely affect the development of typhoons and cyclones in the Pacific as well as hurricanes in the Atlantic. The 1500-year ?18O record from Quelccaya offers a unique opportunity to examine how ENSO-driven hurricane and typhoon activity responded to large-scale climate forcing (changes) in the past and may provide a more complete perspective and better understanding that will be required to evaluate the likely effects under future climate change scenarios

  5. Interannual and cyclone-driven variability in phytoplankton communities of a tropical coastal lagoon.

    PubMed

    Srichandan, Suchismita; Kim, Ji Yoon; Kumar, Abhishek; Mishra, Deepak R; Bhadury, Punyasloke; Muduli, Pradipta R; Pattnaik, Ajit K; Rastogi, Gurdeep

    2015-12-15

    One of the main challenges in phytoplankton ecology is to understand their variability at different spatiotemporal scales. We investigated the interannual and cyclone-derived variability in phytoplankton communities of Chilika, the largest tropical coastal lagoon in Asia and the underlying mechanisms in relation to environmental forcing. Between July 2012 and June 2013, Cyanophyta were most prolific in freshwater northern region of the lagoon. A category-5 very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Phailin struck the lagoon on 12th October 2013 and introduced additional variability into the hydrology and phytoplankton communities. Freshwater Cyanophyta further expanded their territory and occupied the northern as well as central region of the lagoon. Satellite remote sensing imagery revealed that the phytoplankton biomass did not change much due to high turbidity prevailing in the lagoon after Phailin. Modeling analysis of species-salinity relationship identified specific responses of phytoplankton taxa to the different salinity regime of lagoon. PMID:26611863

  6. Pattern recognition analysis of satellite data for tropical cyclone motion and intensity forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunter, Herbert; Nunez, Edwin; Barker, Llyle; Rodgers, ED

    1986-01-01

    An objective empirical analysis technique is employed to investigate the extent to which satellite-obtained measurements (GOES IR and TOVS data) of a tropical cyclone and its environment can be used to predict cyclone motion. The paper describes the procedure used to process the satellite derived data in order to optimize their possible predictive value, the technique used in developing the regression algorithms, and the results of testing these algorithms using the Lachenbrach and Mickey (1968) procedure. The data were examined alone and in conjunction with available nonsatellite climatological and persistence variables for each storm. These predictors are similar to those used in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) CLIPPER model. The performances obtained using the Nichols Research Corporation CLIPPER model and the NHC CLIPPER model are compared, using homogeneous data sets for the comparisons. Major differences in results were found to be related to differences in the models.

  7. Physical and biological response of the Arabian Sea to tropical cyclone Phyan and its implications.

    PubMed

    Byju, P; Prasanna Kumar, S

    2011-06-01

    The response to the tropical cyclone Phyan, which developed in the eastern Arabian Sea during 9-11 November 2009, was rapid cooling of sea surface temperature (SST), enhancement of chlorophyll a and two-fold increase in net primary productivity (NPP). Cooling of SST was immediate in response to the strong wind-mixing, and the subsequent upward Ekman pumping sustained the cooling even after the dissipation of Phyan. The biological response mediated by the upward Ekman pumping driven vertical transport of subsurface nutrient showed a time lag of 3-4 days. The CO₂ flux to the atmosphere associated with Phyan was 0.123 Tg C, which accounted for ~85% of the total out-gassing from the eastern Arabian Sea during November. Thus, an increased occurrence of cyclones in a warming environment will lead to an enhanced biomass production and also increase in CO₂ out-gassing. PMID:21459432

  8. Understanding the impact of model resolution on tropical cyclones in CAM5 using rotating radiative-convective equilibrium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, Kevin; Chavas, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    In our continued effort to understand the climate system and improve its representation in general circulation models (GCMs) it is crucial to develop new methods to evaluate these models. This is certainly true as the GCM community advances towards high horizontal resolutions (i.e., grid spacing less than 0.5 degrees), which will require interpreting and improving the performance of many model components. Of specific interest is the simulation of tropical cyclones at these spatial scales. Idealized, or reduced complexity, frameworks can be used to investigate how model assumptions impact behavior across scales. Here we explore the implication of horizontal resolution on tropical cyclones in GCMs using an idealized global rotating radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) configuration. The National Center for Atmospheric Research and U.S. Department of Energy supported Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) is configured for an ocean-covered earth with diurnally varying, spatially uniform insolation and spatially uniform rotation, a setup that permits the formation of tropical cyclones throughout the entire global domain. CAM5 is run with the spectral element dynamics package at two horizontal resolutions: a standard resolution of approximately 1 degree grid spacing and a high-resolution of approximately 0.25 degree grid spacing. In this unique testbed, the statistics of tropical cyclone intensity and outer size, as measured by the azimuthal-mean radius of 12 m/s, are analyzed under both configurations. Implications of the results for both model development and tropical cyclone physics are discussed.

  9. Anatomy of sand beach ridges: Evidence from severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi and its predecessors, northeast Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan; Chague-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James; Sloss, Craig; Riggs, Naomi

    2013-09-01

    Four well-identified tropical cyclones over the past century have been responsible for depositing distinct units of predominantly quartzose sand and gravel to form the most seaward beach ridge at several locations along the wet tropical coast of northeast Queensland, Australia. These units deposited by tropical cyclones display a key sedimentary signature characterized by a sharp basal erosional contact, a coarser grain size than the underlying facies and a coarse-skewed trend toward the base. Coarse-skewed distributions with minimal change in mean grain size also characterize the upper levels of the high-energy deposited units at locations within the zone of maximum onshore winds during the tropical cyclone. These same coarse skew distributions are not apparent in sediments deposited at locations where predominantly offshore winds occurred during the cyclone, which in the case of northeast Australia is north of the eye-crossing location. These sedimentary signatures, along with the geochemical indicators and the degraded nature of the microfossil assemblages, have proven to be useful proxies to identify storm-deposited units within the study site and can also provide useful proxies in older beach ridges where advanced pedogenesis has obscured visual stratigraphic markers. As a consequence, more detailed long-term histories of storms and tropical cyclones can now be developed.

  10. Seven-day intensity and intensity spread predictions for western North Pacific tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Elsberry, Russell L.

    2015-11-01

    Our weighted-analog intensity (WANI) technique for predicting western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and with intensity spread guidance has been extended from five days to seven days. A perfect-prog approach that utilizes the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-tracks is adopted and the 10 best historical track analogs are selected from the 1945-2009 JTWC best-track file. A development sample from the 2000-2009 seasons is used to develop an intensity bias correction and an intensity spread calibration. Tests with an independent sample from the 2010-2014 seasons demonstrate that the intensity mean absolute errors and the correlation coefficients of the WANI forecast intensities with the verifying intensities essentially remain constant in the five-day to seven-day forecast interval. After calibration of the raw intensity spreads among the 10 historical analogs each 12 h, the uncertainty estimates about the WANI intensity forecasts also do not increase during the five-day to seven-day forecast intervals. The conclusion is that the seven-day WANI will provide intensity and intensity spread predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclones with a similar performance as our five-day WANI technique. Examples of the performance for this seven-day WANI for westward-moving and northwestward-moving cyclones that make landfall, or for recurving storms that begin decay after rrecurvature over the ocean, demonstrate the value of constraining the intensities at the end of the WANI forecast. Less satisfactory WANI forecasts occur for rapid intensification, rapid decay, and for cyclones with extended periods of non-intensification.

  11. Evaluating probabilistic decadal forecasts of Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone frequencies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kruschke, Tim; Rust, Henning W.; Kadow, Christopher; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    Mid-latitudinal cyclones are a key factor for understanding regional anomalies of primary meteorological parameters, such as temperature, surface wind speed or precipitation. Extreme cyclones potentially cause tremendous impacts on society and economy, e.g. by enormous wind-storm induced damages. Based on an ensemble prediction experiment with 41 annually initialised (1961-2001) hindcasts, as part of the German MiKlip-initiative for decadal prediction, this study evaluates a single-model decadal forecast system (MPI-ESM-LR). It analyses, whether the forecast system can provide skillful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased) of extra-tropical winter (ONDJFM) cyclone frequencies over the northern hemisphere with lead times from one year up to a decade. Thus, it will be analysed whether the MiKlip-system is of additional value compared to climatological forecasts and uninitialised climate projections. It is shown, that these predictions exhibit significant skill, mainly over the North Atlantic and Pacific for lead times of 2-5 years. Skill for the subset of intense (strongest 25% according to laplacian of SLP) cyclones is generally higher than for the full set of all detected systems.A comparison of decadal predictions from different initialisation strategies indicates systematic differences for some lead times and regions. Additional parameters (e.g. air temperature, SST, and geopotential height) and indices of large-scale variability modes (e.g. NAO and PNA) are analysed for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of cyclone frequency modification and thus potential sources of skill.

  12. A simple model for post-landfall intensity changes of tropical cyclone over India, Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kishtawal, C. M.; Shah, Shivani; Chaurasia, Sashmita; Jaiswal, Neeru

    2013-08-01

    Using JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) best track analysis data for the Indian Ocean cyclones, we developed an empirical equation for prediction of maximum surface wind speed of tropical cyclones during first 6-12 hours of landfall along the coastline of Indian subcontinent. A non-linear data fitting approach, the Genetic Algorithm, has been used to develop the above empirical equation using data for 74 tropical cyclones that made landfall on the coasts of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar during the period 1978-2011. For an out of sample validation test, the mean absolute error of the prediction was found to be 5.2 kt, and a correlation of 0.97. Our analysis indicates that time-integration of land area intercepted by cyclones during the landfall is a better predictor of post-landfall intensity compared to post-landfall time span. This approach also helps to tackle the complexity of coastline geometry of Indian subcontinent area.

  13. Comparative analysis of TEC disturbances above regions of tropical cyclones in the north-west Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyakova, Anna; Perevalova, Natalya

    2015-03-01

    We studied ionospheric total electron content (TEC) disturbances associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). The study was based on the statistical analysis of six cyclones with different intensity which occurred in the North-West Pacific Ocean in September-November 2005. We used TEC data from the international network of two-frequency ground-based GPS receivers and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis meteorological archive. TEC variations of different period ranges (2-20 and 20-60 min) are shown to be more intense during TC peaks under quiet geomagnetic conditions. The highest TEC variation amplitudes are registered when the wind speed in the cyclone and the TC area are maximum. The intensification of TEC disturbances is more pronounced when several cyclones occur simultaneously. We found that the ionospheric response to TC can be observed only after the cyclone has reached typhoon intensity. The ionospheric response is more pronounced at low satellite elevation angles.

  14. On predicting future economic losses from tropical cyclones: Comparing damage functions for the Eastern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geiger, Tobias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Recent years have seen an intense scientific debate of what to expect from future tropical cyclone activity under climate change [1,2]. Besides the projection of cyclones' genesis points and trajectories it is the cyclone's impact on future societies that needs to be quantified. In our present work, where we focus on the Eastern USA, we start out with a comprehensive comparison of a variety of presently available and novel functional relationships that are used to link cyclones' physical properties with their damage caused on the ground. These so-called damage functions make use of high quality data sets consisting of gridded population data, exposed capital at risk, and information on the cyclone's extension and its translational and locally resolved maximum wind speed. Based on a cross-validation ansatz we train a multitude of damage functions on a large variety of data sets in order to evaluate their performance on an equally sized test sample. Although different damage analyses have been conducted in the literature [3,4,5,6], the efforts have so far primarily been focused on determining fit parameters for individual data sets. As our analysis consists of a wide range of damage functions implemented on identical data sets, we can rigorously evaluate which (type of) damage function (for which set of parameters) does best in reproducing damages and should therefore be used for future loss analysis with highest certainty. We find that the benefits of using locally resolved data input tend to be outweighed by the large uncertainties that accompany the data. More coarse and generalized data input therefore captures the diversity of cyclonic features better. Furthermore, our analysis shows that a non-linear relation between wind speed and damage outperforms the linear as well as the exponential relationship discussed in the literature. In a second step, the damage function with the highest predictive quality is implemented to predict potential future cyclone losses for the Eastern USA until the year 2100. The projection is based on downscaling five different GCM model runs for the RCP8.5 scenario, as conducted by Emanuel et al. [7], and accounts for population and GDP changes relying on the newly developed Shared Socioenonomic Pathways (SSPs) [8]. We hereby contribute valuable input to the scientific community as well as the societies at risk. The possibility of extending this work to different regions in order to access the future impact of tropical cyclones on a global scale will also be discussed. References [1] Thomas R. Knutson, John L. McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, James P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and Masato Sugi. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3(3):157-163, 2010. [2] Robert Mendelsohn, Kerry Emanuel, Shun Chonabayashi, and Laura Bakkensen. The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nature Climate Change, 2(3):205-209, 2012. [3] Silvio Schmidt, Claudia Kemfert, and Peter Höppe. The impact of socio-economics and climate change on tropical cyclone losses in the USA. Regional Environmental Change, 10(1):13-26, 2009. [4] William D. Nordhaus. The Economics of Hurricanes and Implications of Global Warming. Climate Change Economics, 01(01):1-20, 2010. [5] Kerry Emanuel. Global Warming Effects on U.S. Hurricane Damage. Weather, Climate, and Society, 3(4):261-268, 2011. [6] Richard J. Murnane and James B. Elsner. Maximum wind speeds and US hurricane losses. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(16):707, 2012. [7] Kerry Emanuel. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(30):12219-24, 2013. [8] Detlef P. van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, and Richard Moss. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change, 22(1):21-35, 2012.

  15. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Ivan D.; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Mason, Matthew S.; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

  16. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, B.-W.; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W. K.; Atlas, R.

    2010-01-01

    Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.

  17. Spatial relationships between tropical cyclone frequencies and population densities in Haiti since the 19th century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klose, C. D.

    2011-12-01

    The second edition of the United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2011 outlined that the worldwide physical exposure to tropical cyclones increased by 192 per cent between 1970 and 2010. For the past 160 years, the Republic of Haiti has experienced numerous tropical storms and hurricanes which may have directly effected the country's development path. However, statistical data regarding storm frequencies and population densities in space and time show that the population's exposure in Haiti may have more negatively influenced its development than the actual number of storms and hurricanes. Haitians, in particular, those living in urban areas have been exposed to much higher tropical cyclone hazards than rural areas since the second half of the 20th century. Specifically, more storms made landfall in regions of accelerated migration/urbanization, such as, in departments Ouest, Artibonite, Nord, and Nord-Ouest with Haiti's four largest cities Port-au-Prince, Gonaives, Cap-Haitien and Port-de-Paix.

  18. Change of tropical cyclone heat potential in response to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Ran; Chen, Changlin; Wang, Guihua

    2016-04-01

    Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 (+4.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26°C isotherm (D26), the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26°C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary.

  19. Analysis and prediction of integrated kinetic energy in Atlantic tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozar, Michael E.

    Integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is a recently developed metric that approximates the destructive potential of a tropical cyclone by assessing the size and strength of its wind field. Despite the potential usefulness of the IKE metric, there are few, if any, operational tools that are specifically designed to forecast IKE in real-time. Therefore, IKE and tropical cyclone structure are analyzed within historical Atlantic tropical cyclones from the past two decades in order to develop an understanding of the environmental and internal storm-driven processes that govern IKE variability. This analysis concurs with past research that IKE growth and decay is influenced by both traditional tropical cyclone development mechanisms and by other features such as extratropical transition and trough interactions. Using this framework, a series of statistical prediction tools are created in an effort to project IKE in Atlantic tropical cyclones from a series of relevant normalized input parameters. The resulting IKE prediction schemes are titled the "Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy (SPIKE)". The first version of SPIKE utilizes simple linear regression to project historical IKE quantities in a perfect prognostic mode for all storms between 1990 and 2011. This primitive model acts as a proof of concept, revealing that IKE can be skillfully forecasted relative to persistence out to 72 hours by even the simplest of statistical models if given accurate estimates of various metrics measured throughout the storm and its environment. The proof-of-concept version of SPIKE is improved upon in its second version, SPIKE2, by incorporating a more sophisticated system of adaptive statistical models. A system of artificial neural networks replaces the linear regression model to better capture the nonlinear relationships in the TC-environment system. In a perfect prognostic approach with analyzed input parameters, the neural networks outperform the linear models in nearly every measurable way. The system of neural networks is also more versatile, as it is capable of producing both deterministic and probabilistic tools. Overall, the results from these perfect prognostic exercises suggest that SPIKE2 has a high potential skill level relative to persistence and several other benchmarks. Finally, in an effort to assess its real-time performance, the SPIKE2 forecasting system is run in a mock-operational hindcast mode for the 1990 to 2011 North Atlantic hurricane seasons. Hindcasts of IKE are produced in this manner by running the neural networks with hindcasted input parameters from NOAA's second generation Global Ensemble Forecast System reforecast dataset. Ultimately, the results of the hindcast exercises indicate that the neural network system is capable of skillfully forecasting IKE in an operational setting at a level significantly higher than climatology and persistence. Ultimately, forecasts of IKE from these neural networks could potentially be an asset for operational meteorologists that would complement existing forecast tools in an effort to better assess the damage potential of landfalling tropical cyclones, particularly with regards to storm surge damage.

  20. A review of tropical cyclone-generated storm surges: Global data sources, observations, and impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Needham, Hal F.; Keim, Barry D.; Sathiaraj, David

    2015-06-01

    Tropical cyclone-generated storm surges are among the world's most deadly and destructive natural hazards. This paper provides the first comprehensive global review of tropical storm surge data sources, observations, and impacts while archiving data in SURGEDAT, a global database. Available literature has provided data for more than 700 surge events since 1880, the majority of which are found in the western North Atlantic (WNA), followed by Australia/Oceania, the western North Pacific (WNP), and the northern Indian Ocean (NIO). The Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the NIO consistently observes the world's highest surges, as this subbasin averages five surges ≥5 m per decade and has observed credible storm tide levels reaching 13.7 m. The WNP observes the highest rate of low-magnitude surges, as the coast of China averages 54 surges ≥1 m per decade, and rates are likely higher in the Philippines. The U.S. Gulf Coast observes the second highest frequency of both high-magnitude (≥5 m) and low-magnitude (≥1 m) surges. The BOB observes the most catastrophic surge impacts, as 59% of global tropical cyclones that have killed at least 5000 people occurred in this basin. The six deadliest cyclones in this region have each killed at least 140,000 people, and two events have killed 300,000. Storm surge impacts transportation, agriculture, and energy sectors in the WNA. Oceania experiences long-term impacts, including contamination of fresh water and loss of food supplies, although the highest surges in this region are lower than most other basins.

  1. Satellite radiothermovision of atmospheric mesoscale processes: case study of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ermakov, D. M.; Sharkov, E. A.; Chernushich, A. P.

    2015-04-01

    Satellite radiothermovision is a set of processing techniques applicable for multisource data of radiothermal monitoring of oceanatmosphere system, which allows creating dynamic description of mesoscale and synoptic atmospheric processes and estimating physically meaningful integral characteristics of the observed processes (like avdective flow of the latent heat through a given border). The approach is based on spatiotemporal interpolation of the satellite measurements which allows reconstructing the radiothermal fields (as well as the fields of geophysical parameters) of the ocean-atmosphere system at global scale with spatial resolution of about 0.125° and temporal resolution of 1.5 hour. The accuracy of spatiotemporal interpolation was estimated by direct comparison of interpolated data with the data of independent asynchronous measurements and was shown to correspond to the best achievable as reported in literature (for total precipitable water fields the accuracy is about 0.8 mm). The advantages of the implemented interpolation scheme are: closure under input radiothermal data, homogeneity in time scale (all data are interpolated through the same time intervals), automatic estimation of both the intermediate states of scalar field of the studied geophysical parameter and of vector field of effective velocity of advection (horizontal movements). Using this pair of fields one can calculate the flow of a given geophysical quantity though any given border. For example, in case of total precipitable water field, this flow (under proper calibration) has the meaning of latent heat advective flux. This opportunity was used to evaluate the latent heat flux though a set of circular contours, enclosing a tropical cyclone and drifting with it during its evolution. A remarkable interrelation was observed between the calculated magnitude and sign of advective latent flux and the intensity of a tropical cyclone. This interrelation is demonstrated in several examples of hurricanes and tropical cyclones of August, 2000, and typhoons of November, 2013, including super typhoon Haiyan.

  2. Skill of probabilistic decadal forecasts regarding the frequencies of Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tim, Kruschke; Rust, Henning; Kadow, Christopher; Ulbrich, Uwe; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2015-04-01

    Mid-latitude cyclones exert a large influence on primary meteorological parameters such as surface temperature, wind speed or precipitation. The variability in their frequency of occurrence is thus important for climate variability in the extra-tropics and consequently a crucial parameter for skillful predictions on interannual to multi-decadal time scales. This work investigates the skill of a prediction system which is being developed to make climate forecasts for time scales of up to 10 years. Within MiKlip - the German initiative for decadal prediction - five different hindcast sets for the period 1961-2010 were set up, all produced by the same model system (MPI-ESM-LR), but following different strategies for initialization (anomaly-initialization and full-field-initialization from different reanalysis data sets as well as initialization from an assimilation experiment). Based on 41 annual initializations for each of the strategies, it is analyzed whether these forecast systems can provide skillful (compared to climatological forecasts and uninitialized climate projections) probabilistic three-category forecasts enhanced, normal or decreased) of Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter (ONDJFM) cyclone frequencies with different lead times. It is shown, that they exhibit significant skill for the North Atlantic and Pacific storm track,mainly for lead times of 2-5 years. Prediction skill for the subset of intense (strongest 25% according to laplacian of sea-level pressure) cyclones is generally higher than for the full set of all detected systems. A comparison of the different initialization strategies indicates systematic differences for some lead times and regions. First exploratory analyses regarding potential sources of found predictive skill indicate local oceanic forcing of lower troposphere baroclinicity but also remote influences - especially of tropical origin - modulating large scale circulation patterns.

  3. The impacts of altered tropical cyclone activity on climate mitigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; LePage, Y.; Patel, P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Clarke, L.; Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Chambers, J. Q.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing evidence that anthropogenic climate change may alter patterns of tropical cyclone frequency, intensity and spatial distribution, which in turn will alter the carbon balance of terrestrial systems in the large regions impacted by these storms. Recent studies project up to a doubling of major storms (Saffir-Simpson Scale 3-5) over the next century. Single large storms have been shown to be capable of causing committed carbon emissions equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink. These changes have the potential to affect climate mitigation strategies, most of which rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink to restrain the accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Altered patterns of disturbances and the resulting changes to the carbon balance of terrestrial systems could impact the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, and thus future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology. Here we investigate the potential consequences of altered tropical cyclone activity on climate mitigation strategies using a fully integrated model (iED) that links advanced ecological and socio-economic models. The model combines the regional integrated assessment algorithms of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), with the climate- sensitive ecosystem and carbon modeling in the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, and the land-use mapping algorithms of the Global Land-use Model (GLM). We explore a range of scenarios of altered future tropical cyclone frequency, intensity and spatial pattern, the resulting effects on the terrestrial carbon balance, and the coupled effects on the food and energy sector under a range of future climate mitigation goals.

  4. Impact of horizontal spatial resolution on the derivation of the source receptor relationship—an extra-tropical cyclone case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jae-Bum; Lee, Tae-Young

    2004-11-01

    A numerical study has been made to evaluate the impact of horizontal resolution on the estimation of the source receptor (S R) relationship. Numerical experiments with four different horizontal grid sizes have been performed for an extra-tropical cyclonic episode in East Asia. CSU RAMS and YU-SADM (Yonsei University's sulfuric acid deposition model) have been used to simulate meteorological and pollutant fields, respectively.In this study, enhanced spatial resolution has improved the simulation of an extra-tropical cyclone, cold front and associated precipitation systems. As spatial resolution increases, the circulation associated with the cyclone and cold front becomes stronger, and the amount of frontal rainfall increases. This study has shown that enhancement of spatial resolution tends to increase self-contributions but decrease foreign contributions to the wet deposition associated with an extra-tropical cyclone. It has been found that increased precipitation for enhanced spatial resolution reduces the amount of transported pollutant but increases the wet deposition of locally emitted pollutants. The larger self-contribution for higher resolutions may also be partially due to the increased strength of resolved convection. The impact of enhancing spatial resolution on dry deposition is felt mostly over downstream regions where the centres of the lows and fronts pass. Contributions from upstream sources increase as cyclonic circulation becomes stronger with increasing spatial resolution. On the other hand, enhancing spatial resolution does not significantly affect the S R relationship for either dry or wet deposition in the other regions where the extra-tropical cyclone does not pass. This study indicates that improved simulation of a cold front does not significantly affect the S R relationship for wet deposition over the area of passage of the cold front. An additional discussion infers a S R relationship for the wet deposition associated with a typical extra-tropical cyclone.

  5. The Dynamics of Boundary Layer Jets within the Tropical Cyclone Core. Part I: Linear Theory.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kepert, Jeff

    2001-09-01

    Observations of wind profiles within the tropical cyclone boundary layer have until recently been quite rare. The recent massive increase in observations due to the operational implementation of the global positioning system dropwindsonde has emphasised that a low-level wind speed maximum is a common feature of the tropical cyclone boundary layer. Here is proposed a mechanism for producing such a maximum, whereby strong inward advection of angular momentum generates the supergradient flow. The processes that maintain the necessary inflow against the outward acceleration resulting from gradient wind imbalance are identified as being (i) vertical diffusion, (ii) vertical advection, and (iii) horizontal advection. Two complementary tools are used to diagnose the properties and dynamics of the jet. The first, presented here, is a linear analytical model of the boundary layer flow in a translating tropical cyclone. It is an extension of the classical Ekman boundary layer model, as well as of earlier work on stationary vortex boundary layers. This simplifies the vertical diffusion, omits the vertical advection, and linearizes the horizontal advection. The solution is shown to have three components, a symmetric one due to the cyclone, and two asymmetric ones that result from the interaction of the moving cyclone with the earth's surface. The asymmetric components are shown to be equivalent to a frictionally stalled inertia wave. It is argued that an Ekman-type model may be appropriate in tropical cyclones since diurnal effects are weak or absent, turbulence is dominantly shear-generated, and baroclinicity is weak.The jet is similar to the supergeostrophic flow found at the top of the classical Ekman spiral. It is only a few percent supergradient in the linear model, although it is shown that the neglect of vertical advection substantially reduces the strength. The jet height scales as (2K/I)1/2, where K is the turbulent diffusivity and I the inertial stability, modulated by a function of a dimensionless parameter. It is typically several hundreds of meters in the cyclone core, and increases with radius. In a moving storm, the jet is most supergradient-several times stronger than in a stationary storm-at the eyewall to the left and front of the storm (in the Northern Hemisphere), as well as extending into a significant area around to the left of the storm. It is, however, much less marked to the right, where the strongest near-surface winds are found.The factor for reducing upper winds to a near-surface equivalent, which is frequently used in operational work, is shown to have a substantial spatial variability. Larger values are found near the eye, due to the symmetric component of the solution. There is also a marked overall increase from right to left of the storm in the Northern Hemisphere.The second tool used to diagnose the jet, to be presented in Part II of this paper, is a high-resolution, dry, hydrostatic, numerical model using the full set of primitive equations. It therefore includes those terms omitted in the linear model, and will be seen to produce a markedly stronger jet, more consistent with the observations.

  6. Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Winters, Katherine A.; Roeder, William P.; McAleenan, Mike; Belson, Brian L.; Shafer, Jaclyn A.

    2012-01-01

    The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the timing and risk for multiple locations in a single graphic. Preliminary results on an on-going project by FIT will be included in this paper. This project is developing a new method of assigning the probability interpretation categories and updating the evaluation of the performance of the NHC wind speed probability analysis.

  7. Predicting tropical cyclone intensity using satellite measured equivalent blackbody temperatures of cloud tops. [regression analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gentry, R. C.; Rodgers, E.; Steranka, J.; Shenk, W. E.

    1978-01-01

    A regression technique was developed to forecast 24 hour changes of the maximum winds for weak (maximum winds less than or equal to 65 Kt) and strong (maximum winds greater than 65 Kt) tropical cyclones by utilizing satellite measured equivalent blackbody temperatures around the storm alone and together with the changes in maximum winds during the preceding 24 hours and the current maximum winds. Independent testing of these regression equations shows that the mean errors made by the equations are lower than the errors in forecasts made by the peristence techniques.

  8. Determination of tropical cyclone surface pressure and winds from satellite microwave data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kidder, S. Q.

    1979-01-01

    An approach to the problem of deducing wind speed and pressure around tropical cyclones is presented. The technique, called the Surface Wind Inference from Microwave data (SWIM technique, uses satellites microwave sounder data to measure upper tropospheric temperature anomalies which may then be related to surface pressure anomalies through the hydrostatic and radiative transfer equations. Surface pressure gradients outside of the radius of maximum wind are estimated for the first time. Future instruments may be able to estimate central pressure with + or - 0/1 kPa accuracy.

  9. An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the western North Pacific

    SciTech Connect

    Fiorino, M.; Goerss, J.S.; Jensen, J.J.; Harrison, E.J. Jr. Naval Research Lab., Monterey, CA Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, Monterey, CA ARC Professional Services Group, Inc., Landover, MD )

    1993-03-01

    The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones. 35 refs.

  10. An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the western North Pacific

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fiorino, Michael; Goerss, James S.; Jensen, Jack J.; Harrison, Edward J., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones.

  11. On the Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the Indian Region Using a Synthetic Vortex Scheme in a Mesoscale Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandeep, S.; Chandrasekar, A.; Dash, S. K.

    2007-09-01

    The tropical cyclones form over the oceanic regions where conventional meteorological observations are not available. This contributes to a poor initial analysis of the cyclonic vortex and hence inadequate forecast. One way of overcoming the above problem is to modify the initial analysis by replacing the weak and ill-defined vortex in the initial analysis with a synthetic vortex having the correct size and intensity at the correct location. In this study we are investigating the effect of inclusion of a synthetic vortex based on Rankine as well as on Holland wind profiles, using NCAR-AFWA bogussing scheme for the prediction of four tropical cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during November 2002 and 2005, December 2005 and over the Arabian Sea during May 2004, using the MM5 model. Two numerical experiments are designed in this study for each of the above four cyclones. In the first experiment the model is integrated with a synthetic vortex based on Rankine wind profile while in the second experiment we utilize the Holland wind profile. For the November 2002 cyclone, in both the experiments the model is integrated from 10 November 2002 18 UTC to 12 November, 2002 12 UTC with the synthetic vortex inserted at the initial time. The results of the study for the November 2002 cyclone show that the model simulation with the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. Also, the results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Holland vortex showed a better longitudinal height section of the horizontal wind speed across the center of the cyclone. The track error of the cyclone for the November 2002 cyclone is less in the model simulation with the Holland vortex at the initial time and at 24 hours of forecast. The results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Rankine vortex showed greater vertical wind speed as compared to the Holland vortex. However, for the November 2002 cyclone there were no significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation for both the experiments. In order to provide an adequate number of case studies for a good statistical sample, the present study is extended for three additional cyclones over the Indian region. All four cyclones studied here show that the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of the minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. The Holland vortex showed a better vertical structure of wind speed in the longitudinal height section at 24 hours of forecast for the November 2005 cyclone while the structure was better for the Rankine vortex for the remaining two cyclones. There were no significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation for the two experiments corresponding to all four cyclones. Some statistical results pertaining to all four cyclones are provided such as the average track error as well as the average difference between the observed and the model minimum sea-level pressure and the maximum wind speed. The statistical results corresponding to the average of all the four cyclones are at only a slight variance with the results corresponding to the November 2002 cyclone.

  12. Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013: Part 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    A tropical cyclone is described as a warm-core, nonfrontal, synoptic-scale system that originates over tropical or subtropical waters, having organized deep convection and closed surface wind circulation (counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere) about a well defined center. When its sustained wind speed equals 34-63 kt, it is called a tropical (or subtropical) storm and is given a name (i.e., alternating male and female names, beginning in 1979); when its sustained wind speed equals 64-95 kt, it is called a hurricane (at least in the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic basin); and when its sustained wind speed equals 96 kt or higher, it is called an intense or major hurricane (i.e., categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Although tropical cyclones have been reported and described since the voyages of Columbus, a detailed record of their occurrences extends only from 1851 to the present, with the most reliable portion extending only from about 1945 to the present, owing to the use of near-continuous routine reconnaissance aircraft monitoring flights and the use of satellite imagery (beginning in 1960; see Davis). Even so, the record may still be incomplete, possibly missing at least one tropical cyclone per yearly hurricane season, especially prior to the use of continuous satellite monitoring. In fact, often an unnamed tropical cyclone is included in the year-end listing of events at the conclusion of the season, following post-season analysis (e.g., as happened in 2011 and 2013, each having one unnamed event). In this two-part Technical Publication (TP), statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones are examined for the interval 1960-2013, the weather satellite era. Part 1 examines some 25 parameters of tropical cyclones (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.), while part 2 examines the relationship of these parameters against specific climate-related factors. These studies are a continuation of nearly two decades of previous tropical cyclone-related investigations.

  13. Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, James R.

    2004-01-01

    Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential. We have analyzed the oxygen isotopic composition of ostrcoda shells formed in the floodwaters of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) and discovered the negative isotopic 1 16 spike. Because we had learned that storm activity has a major impact on the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the tropics and sub-tropics we decided to analyze the isotopic compositions of water vapor in different locations in the tropics. We did this in Puerto Escondido, Mexico in July 1998, near Kwajalein Island in the Pacific in 1999 as part of a TRMM summer field program and in 2001 in Key West, Florida as part of the CAMEX 4 summer field program. Our isotopic studies along with our earlier tropical cyclone studies showed that the low isotopic ratios in water vapor induced by exposure to rains the storms persisted for 48 hours often far away from the original storm site. We also noted that positive isotopic spikes were introduced into atmospheric water vapor if winds were high and extensive sea spray was present. These findings have a significant impact on the interpretation of the stable isotope studies of tropical ice cores found in the high mountain regions of the tropics. The assumption made in interpreting the ice core record is that the source water vapor evaporated from the sea surface is in near isotopic equilibrium with the seawater and undergoes a decrease during its transport that reflects the change in temperature from the sea surface to the site of the ice core. Because an additional isotopic depletion occurs at the sea surface source area that depends on the intensity, duration and size of the tropical rain system the isotopic variations found in the ice cores must take into account changes in past storm activity in the tropics. These systems must be an important source of water vapor to the ice cores because they charge the troposphere with water vapor to a far greater vertical height than evaporation in quiescent regions. Finally, an interest in increased heat transfer in thnterior of tropical cyclones resulting from greater amounts of sea spray is a topic of considerable interest to the research community. Increases in sea spray may be related to rapid changes in the intensity of hurricanes, a feature of hurricanes that currently is very poorly forecast. Project CBLAST of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is an active program that uses P3 research aircraft to evaluate this problem. An instrument has been designed and built at the University of Houston that will be placed on the P3 research aircraft during the 2004 hurricane season. It continuously measures the salt content of rain in hurricanes. Changes in the salt content of the rains should reflect the abundance of sea spray at the sea surface. In this way maps of sea spray intensity in hurricanes may be forthcoming. This should help computer modelers who simulate hurricanes to better understand the potential of changes in sea spray to change the intensity of hurricanes. The cost of designing, building and installing this instrument was borne largely by funding from this NASA grant. A list of presentations at national meetings and publications that were as the result of funding from this NASA grant are found in the report.

  14. An Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Their Impacts on Coastal Inundation in New York and New Jersey during the Last Millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, A. J.; Mann, M. E.; Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.; Kemp, A.; Horton, B.

    2014-12-01

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend on the combined effect of storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising sea levels on which those surges occur. The observational record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin is too short (AD 1851-present) to allow for accurate assessment of long-term trends in storm activity. In order to overcome the limitations of the short observational record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, we downscaled four CMIP5 models to generate synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the Atlantic basin that span from AD 850 to AD 2005. Using an interdisciplinary approach that combines these tropical cyclone simulations with storm surge models and local proxy sea-level reconstructions of the last two millennia, we provide insight into the connections between climate change, sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and coastal flooding events like Hurricane Sandy of 2012. We present a comparison of pre-anthropogenic era (before AD 1800) and anthropogenic era (since AD 1800) storm surge model results from the New York/New Jersey region, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm surge heights. An analysis of the characteristics and metrics of the tropical cyclones that create storm surges in this region is also performed. Results of this work will be a step towards improved scientific prediction of coastal inundation as a result of sea-level rise and tropical cyclones in our changing climate.

  15. Assimilation of Doppler Weather Radar Data in WRF Model for Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Aila

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srivastava, Kuldeep; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

    2014-08-01

    For the accurate and effective forecasting of a cyclone, it is critical to have accurate initial structure of the cyclone in numerical models. In this study, Kolkata Doppler weather radar (DWR) data were assimilated for the numerical simulation of a land-falling Tropical Cyclone Aila (2009) in the Bay of Bengal. To study the impact of radar data on very short-range forecasting of a cyclone's path, intensity and precipitation, both reflectivity and radial velocity were assimilated into the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model through the ARPS data assimilation system (ADAS) and cloud analysis procedure. Numerical experiment results indicated that radar data assimilation significantly improved the simulated structure of Cyclone Aila. Strong influences on hydrometeor structures of the initial vortex and precipitation pattern were observed when radar reflectivity data was assimilated, but a relatively small impact was observed on the wind fields at all height levels. The assimilation of radar wind data significantly improved the prediction of divergence/convergence conditions over the cyclone's inner-core area, as well as its wind field in the low-to-middle troposphere (600-900 hPa), but relatively less impact was observed on analyzed moisture field. Maximum surface wind speed produced from DWR-Vr and DWR-ZVr data assimilation experiments were very close to real-time values. The impact of radar data, after final analysis, on minimum sea level pressure was relatively less because the ADAS system does not adjust for pressure due to the lack of pressure observations, and from not using a 3DVAR balance condition that includes pressure. The greatest impact of radar data on forecasting was realized when both reflectivity and wind data (DWR-ZVr and DWR-ZVr00 experiment) were assimilated. It is concluded that after final analysis, the center of the cyclone was relocated very close to the observed position, and simulated cyclone maintained its intensity for a longer duration. Using this analysis, different stages of the cyclone are better captured, and cyclone structure, intensification, direction of movement, speed and location are significantly improved when both radar reflectivity and wind data are assimilated. As compared to other experiments, the maximum reduction in track error was noticed in the DWR-ZVr and DWR-ZVr00 experiments, and the predicted track in these experiments was very close to the observed track. In the DWR-ZVr and DWR-ZVr00 experiments, rainfall pattern and amount of rainfall forecasts were remarkably improved and were similar to the observation over West Bengal, Orissa and Jharkhand; however, the rainfall over Meghalaya and Bangladesh was missed in all the experiments. The influence of radar data reduces beyond a 12-h forecast, due to the dominance of the flow from large-scale, global forecast system models. This study also demonstrates successful coupling of the data assimilation package ADAS with the WRF model for Indian DWR data.

  16. Tropical Cyclones and Climate Controls in the Western Atlantic Basin during the First Half of the Nineteenth Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mock, C. J.; Dodds, S. F.; Rodgers, M. D.; Patwardhan, A.

    2008-12-01

    This study describes new comprehensive reconstructions of individual Western Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones for each year of the first half of the nineteenth century in the Western Atlantic Basin that are directly compatible and supplement the National Hurricane Center's HURDAT (Atlantic basin hurricane database). Data used for reconstructing tropical cyclones come from ship logbooks, ship protests, diaries, newspapers, and early instrumental records from more than 50 different archival repositories in the United States and the United Kingdom. Tropical cyclone strength was discriminated among tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and non-tropical lows at least at tropical storm strength. The results detail the characteristics of several hundred storms, many of them being newly documented, and tracks for all storms were mapped. Overall, prominent active periods of tropical cyclones are evident along the western Atlantic Ocean in the 1830s but Caribbean and Gulf coasts exhibit active periods as being more evident in the 1810s and 1820s. Differences in decadal variations were even more pronounced when examining time series of activity at the statewide scale. High resolution paleoclimate and historical instrumental records of the AMO, NAO, ENSO, Atlantic SSTs, West African rainfall, and volcanic activity explain how different modes in these forcing mechanisms may explain some of the multidecadal and interannual variations. The early nineteenth century active hurricane activity appears to be particularly unique in corresponding with a low (negative index) AMO period, and as they relate to particular synoptic-scale patterns in the latter part of the Little Ice Age. Model simulations offer some hypotheses on such patterns, perhaps suggesting increased baroclinic-related storms and a slight later possible shift in the seasonal peak of tropical cyclones for some areas at times. Some years, such as 1806, 1837, 1838, 1842, and 1846 have particularly very active seasons, and we critically examined the synoptic-scale circulation responsible and also related some of the storms as they relate to potential modern analogs.

  17. Present and Future Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on Urban Flooding in the Eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, D. B.; Smith, J. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Baeck, M. L.

    2013-12-01

    The climatology of flooding in urbanized watersheds in the eastern United States is largely the result of tropical cyclones and organized thunderstorm systems. Extreme rainfall from tropical storms drives the upper tail of flood risk in watersheds larger than about 25 km2. In this study, we couple a flood hazard assessment framework known as Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) with a ten-year record of high-resolution (15-minute, 1 km2) radar rainfall fields developed using the Hydro-NEXRAD system to look at the frequency of intense rainfall from tropical storms and organized thunderstorms in Charlotte, North Carolina. Using the physics-based Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) modeling system, we have developed a detailed representation of the highly urbanized Little Sugar Creek watershed, including detailed land surface, subsurface, and drainage network properties. We use GSSHA to examine the frequency and intensity of extreme flooding resulting from tropical storms and organized thunderstorms at different spatial scales. In addition, we combine this flood hazard assessment framework with downscaled projections of future hurricane-season rainfall from the Zetac regional climate model to examine how projected changes in flood risk due to tropical storm rainfall may change in Charlotte and along the east coast of the United States throughout the 21st century. We demonstrate that the frequency of landfalling tropical storms in the eastern United States is not projected to change significantly from present conditions, but that the intensity of rainfall from these storms will increase by the late 21st century, with important implications for flooding in urban areas. Significant challenges remain, however, with the simulation of rainfall from landfalling tropical storms in climate models. Annual frequency of modeled tropical storm tracks passing within 500 km of a given point during the control period (1980-2006) and the CMIP5 late 21st century climate scenario.

  18. Further examination of the thermodynamic modification of the inflow layer of tropical cyclones by vertical wind shear

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riemer, M.; Montgomery, M. T.; Nicholls, M. E.

    2012-03-01

    Recent work has developed a new framework for the impact of vertical wind shear on the intensity evolution of tropical cyclones. A focus of this framework is on the frustration of the tropical cyclone's power machine by shear-induced, persistent downdrafts that flush relatively cool and dry (lower equivalent potential temperature, θe) air into the storm's inflow layer. These previous results have been based on idealised numerical experiments for which we have deliberately chosen a simple set of physical parameterisations. Before efforts are undertaken to test the proposed framework with real atmospheric data, we here survey and diagnose five additional numerical experiments with some modifications of the experimental setup to assess the robustness of our previous results. The modifications comprise the values of the exchange coefficients of surface heat and momentum fluxes, the inclusion of experiments with ice microphysics, and the consideration of weaker, but still mature tropical cyclones. In all experiments, the depression of the inflow layer θe values is significant and all tropical cyclones exhibit the same general structural changes when interacting with the imposed vertical wind shear. Tropical cyclones with a higher downdraft activity exhibit a more pronounced depression of inflow layer θe outside of the eyewall in our experiments. The magnitude of the θe depression underneath the eyewall early after shear is imposed in our experiments correlates well with the magnitude of the ensuing weakening of the respective tropical cyclone. Based on the evidence presented, it is concluded that the newly proposed framework is a robust description of intensity modification in our suite of experiments.

  19. Further examination of the thermodynamic modification of the inflow layer of tropical cyclones by vertical wind shear

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riemer, M.; Montgomery, M. T.; Nicholls, M. E.

    2013-01-01

    Recent work has developed a new framework for the impact of vertical wind shear on the intensity evolution of tropical cyclones. A focus of this framework is on the frustration of the tropical cyclone's power machine by shear-induced, persistent downdrafts that flush relatively cool and dry (lower equivalent potential temperature, θe) air into the storm's inflow layer. These previous results have been based on idealised numerical experiments for which we have deliberately chosen a simple set of physical parameterisations. Before efforts are undertaken to test the proposed framework with real atmospheric data, we assess here the robustness of our previous results in a more realistic and representative experimental setup by surveying and diagnosing five additional numerical experiments. The modifications of the experimental setup comprise the values of the exchange coefficients of surface heat and momentum fluxes, the inclusion of experiments with ice microphysics, and the consideration of weaker, but still mature tropical cyclones. In all experiments, the depression of the inflow layer θe values is significant and all tropical cyclones exhibit the same general structural changes when interacting with the imposed vertical wind shear. Tropical cyclones in which strong downdrafts occur more frequently exhibit a more pronounced depression of inflow layer θe outside of the eyewall in our experiments. The magnitude of the θe depression underneath the eyewall early after shear is imposed in our experiments correlates well with the magnitude of the ensuing weakening of the respective tropical cyclone. Based on the evidence presented, it is concluded that the newly proposed framework is a robust description of intensity modification in our suite of experiments.

  20. The evacuation of cairns hospitals due to severe tropical cyclone Yasi.

    PubMed

    Little, Mark; Stone, Theona; Stone, Richard; Burns, Jan; Reeves, Jim; Cullen, Paul; Humble, Ian; Finn, Emmeline; Aitken, Peter; Elcock, Mark; Gillard, Noel

    2012-09-01

    On February 2, 2011, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, the largest cyclone to cross the Australian coast and a system the size of Hurricane Katrina, threatened the city of Cairns. As a result, the Cairns Base Hospital (CBH) and Cairns Private Hospital (CPH) were both evacuated, the hospitals were closed, and an alternate emergency medical center was established in a sports stadium 15 km from the Cairns central business district. This article describes the events around the evacuation of 356 patients, staff, and relatives to Brisbane (approximately 1,700 km away by road), closure of the hospitals, and the provision of a temporary emergency medical center for 28 hours during the height of the cyclone. Our experience highlights the need for adequate and exercised hospital evacuation plans; the need for clear command and control with identified decision-makers; early decision-making on when to evacuate; having good communication systems with redundancy; ensuring that patients are adequately identified and tracked and have their medications and notes; ensuring adequate staff, medications, and oxygen for holding patients; and planning in detail the alternate medical facility safety and its role, function, and equipment. PMID:22978739

  1. Integrated impact of tropical cyclones on sea surface chlorophyll in the North Atlantic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hanshaw, M.N.; Lozier, M.S.; Palter, J.B.

    2008-01-01

    Past studies have shown that surface chlorophyll-a concentrations increase in the wake of hurricanes. Given the reported increase in the intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes in recent years, increasing chlorophyll-a concentrations, perhaps an indication of increasing biological productivity, would be an expected consequence. However, in order to understand the impact of variable hurricane activity on ocean biology, the magnitude of the hurricane-induced chlorophyll increase relative to other events that stir or mix the upper ocean must be assessed. This study investigates the upper ocean biological response to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic from 1997-2005. Specifically, we quantitatively compare the anomalous chlorophyll-a concentrations created by cyclone activity to the total distribution of anomalies in the subtropical waters. We show that the cyclone-induced chlorophyll-a increase has minimal impact on the integrated biomass budget, a result that holds even when taking into consideration the lagged and asymmetrical response of ocean color. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. The Kinematics of Tropical Cyclogenesis for Typhoon Nuri as Observed during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 Field Campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lussier, L.; Montgomery, M. T.; Bell, M. M.

    2012-12-01

    Aircraft reconnaissance data collected during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 field campaign are used to examine the kinematics of tropical cyclogenesis for Typhoon Nuri. Data from the first two missions into the pre-Nuri disturbance document the transition from a tropical wave to a tropical depression. Dropwindsonde-derived tangential wind profiles at several radii from the low-level circulation center indicate that the magnitude of low-level circulation increases and that this circulation maximum moves inward between the first and second reconnaissance missions. To compliment these findings, a three-dimensional variational analysis incorporating both dropwindsonde and aircraft radar data is conducted. These data are used to perform kinematic budget calculations at multiple distances from the low-level circulation center. By calculating the circulation tendency we are able to show net spin-up in the low-levels near the center and in the outer regions of the recirculating Kelvin's cat's eye. In these regions, spin-up due to convergence of absolute vorticity exceeds frictional spin-down for both Nuri missions. Additionally, we document areas of low-level vorticity generation through vertical stretching associated with convection. The areal coverage and intensity of these regions increase between the first and second Nuri missions. These findings suggest that the Kelvin's cat's eye circulation provides a favorable environment for low-level spin-up and vorticity organization on the mesoscale. Finally, radar analysis is performed on the convective-scale to document properties of convection in both Nuri missions.

  3. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spencer, Roy; Braswell, William D.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit temperature sounder (AMSU-A) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. The AMSU-A's higher spatial and radiometric resolutions provide more useful information on the strength of the middle and upper tropospheric warm cores associated with tropical cyclones than have previous microwave temperature sounders. The gradient wind relationship suggests that the temperature gradient near the core of tropical cyclones increases nonlinearly with wind speed. We recast the gradient wind equation to include AMSU-A derived variables. Stepwise regression is used to determine which of these variables is most closely related to maximum sustained winds (V(sub max)). The satellite variables investigated include the radially averaged gradients at two spatial resolutions of AMSU-A channels 1 through 10 T(sub b) data (delta(sub r)T(sub b)), the squares of these gradients, a channel 15 based scattering index (SI-89), and area averaged T(sub b). Calculations of Tb and delta(sub r)T(sub b) from mesoscale model simulations of Andrew reveal the effects of the AMSU spatial sampling on the cyclone warm core presentation. Stepwise regression of 66 AMSU-A terms against National Hurricane Center (NHC) V(sub max) estimates from the 1998 and 1999 Atlantic hurricane season confirms the existence of a nonlinear relationship between wind speed and radially averaged temperature gradients near the cyclone warm core. Of six regression terms, four are dominated by temperature information, and two are interpreted as correcting for hydrometeor contamination. Jackknifed regressions were performed to estimate the algorithm performance on independent data. For the 82 cases that had in situ measurements of V(sub max), the average error standard deviation was 4.7 m/s. For 108 cases without in situ wind data, the average error standard deviation was 7.5 m/s. Operational considerations, including the detection of weak cyclones and false alarm reduction are also discussed.

  4. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spencer, Roy W.; Braswell, William D.

    2001-01-01

    The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit temperature sounder (AMSU-A) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. The AMSU-A's higher spatial and radiometric resolutions provide more useful information on the strength of the middle- and upper-tropospheric warm cores associated with tropical cyclones than have previous microwave temperature sounders. The gradient wind relationship suggests that the temperature gradient near the core of tropical cyclones increases nonlinearly with wind speed. The gradient wind equation is recast to include AMSU-A-derived variables, Stepwise regression is used to determine which of these variables is most closely related to maximum sustained winds (V(sub max)). The satellite variables investigated include the radially averaged gradients at two spatial resolutions of AMSU-A channels 1-10 T(sub b) data (delta(sub r)T(sub B)), the squares of these gradients, a channel-15-based scattering index (SI(sub 89)), and area-averaged T(sub B). Calculations of T(sub B) and delta(sub r)T(sub B) from mesoscale model simulations of Andrew reveal the effects of the AMSU spatial sampling on the cyclone warm core presentation. Stepwise regression of 66 AMSU-A terms against National Hurricane Center V(sub max) estimates from the 1998 and 1999 Atlantic hurricane season confirms the existence of a nonlinear relationship between wind speed and radially averaged temperature gradients near the cyclone warm core. Of six regression terms, four are dominated by temperature information, and two are interpreted as correcting for hydrometeor contamination. Jackknifed regressions were performed to estimate the algorithm performance on independent data. For the 82 cases that had in situ measurements of V(sub max), the average error standard deviation was 4.7 m/s. For 108 cases without in situ wind data, the average error standard deviation was 7.5 m/s Operational considerations, including the detection of weak cyclones and false alarm reduction, are also discussed.

  5. Simulations of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal Using RIMES Operational System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raju, P. V. S.; Potty, Jayaraman; Mohanty, U. C.

    2012-10-01

    The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), an international, intergovernmental organization based in Thailand is engaged in disaster risk reduction over the Asia-Pacific region through early warning information. In this paper, RIMES' customized Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model has been used to evaluate the simulations of cyclone Nargis which hit Myanmar on 2 May 2008, the most deadly severe weather event in the history of Myanmar. The model covers a domain of 35E to 145E in the eastwest direction and 12S to 40N in the northsouth direction in order to cover Asia and east Africa with a resolution of 9 km in the horizontal and 28 vertical levels. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1 lon/lat resolution. An attempt is being made to critically evaluate the simulation of cyclone Nargis by seven set of simulations in terms of track, intensity and landfall time of the cyclone. The seven sets of model simulations were initialized every 12 h starting from 0000 UTC 28 April to 01 May 2008. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) precipitation (mm) is used to evaluate the performance of the simulations of heavy rainfall associated with the tropical cyclone. The track and intensity of the simulated cyclone are compared by making use of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data sets. The results indicate that the landfall time, the distribution and intensity of the rainfall, pressure and wind field are well simulated as compared with the JTWC estimates. The average landfall track error for all seven simulations was 64 km with an average time error of about 5 h. The average intensity error of central pressure in all the simulations were found out to be approximately 6 hPa more than the JTWC estimates and in the case of wind, the simulations under predicted it by an average of 12 m s-1.

  6. Impact of tropical cyclones on the intensity and phase propagation of fall Wyrtki jets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sreenivas, P.; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2012-11-01

    Observations and model simulations are used to study the impact of tropical cyclones (TC) on the fall Wyrtki jets (WJ). These strong narrow equatorial currents peak during November and play a vital role in the energy and mass transport in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Maximum number of TCs is observed over TIO during November with longer than normal life span (8-15 days). These TCs enhance equatorial westerly winds (surface) and amplify monthly mean WJs (both at surface and subsurface) by 0.4 ms-1 (anomalies exceed 0.7 ms-1 during TC), which is about half of the climatological amplitude. Intensified WJs increase the heat content of eastern TIO and modulate air-sea interaction. It is also shown that movement of TCs is mainly responsible for the westward phase propagation of WJs, a previously unexplored mechanism. These features are evident in ECCO2 simulations as well.

  7. Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

    SciTech Connect

    Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

    2015-01-28

    Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main development region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.

  8. Influence of physics parameterization schemes on the simulation of a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miglietta, Mario Marcello; Mastrangelo, Daniele; Conte, Dario

    2015-02-01

    Numerical experiments are performed using the WRF model to investigate which category of model physics is most critical for a proper simulation of the structure and intensity of a Mediterranean hurricane. Several combinations are used, and the model outputs are compared with the available observations and a reference simulation. The choice of microphysics scheme, and in a minor way, of cumulus parameterization, has the greatest impact on the model results. Boundary layer schemes and land-surface models appear to play only a marginal role. The ability of the model to reproduce the evolution of the cyclone from extra-tropical to tropical-like (TLC) is also explored. Apart from a few experiments differing for the microphysical scheme, all simulations are able to reproduce the cyclone features properly, and identify the presence of tropical characteristics, i.e. a symmetric, deep warm core, in the later stage of the cyclone lifetime, but with duration and intensity depending on the experiment. The motivation for the failure in some simulations is traced back to the incorrect representation of the cyclone location along its transit in the southern Ionian Sea, before its transition to TLC. In this phase, the interaction of the intense easterly flow, developing on the northern side of the cyclone, with the Apennines near the coasts of Calabria is fundamental for the later intensification of the cyclone, due to the severe convection triggered by the orographic uplift. Thus, an even small misplacement of the simulated cyclone during this phase may dramatically affect its following evolution. For the sake of comparison with the multi-physics approach, a time-lagged ensemble, with initial conditions starting at different times, is also considered. The spread in the cyclone depth and track in the latter case is smaller or comparable with that emerging in experiments using different microphysical schemes, but is larger compared with the experiments changing the other categories of parameterization schemes.

  9. ESTIMATING THE BENEFIT OF TRMM TROPICAL CYCLONE DATA IN SAVING LIVES

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert F.

    2005-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint NASA/JAXA research mission launched in late 1997 to improve our knowledge of tropical rainfall processes and climatology (Kummerow et ai., 2000; Adler et ai., 2003). In addition to being a highly successful research mission, its data are available in real time and operational weather agencies in the U.S. and internationally are using TRMM data and images to monitor and forecast hazardous weather (tropical cyclones, floods, etc.). For example, in 2004 TRMM data were used 669 times for determining tropical cyclone location fixes (National Research Council, 2004). TRMM flies at a relatively low altitude, 400 km, and requires orbit adjustment maneuvers to maintain altitude against the small drag of the atmosphere. There is enough fuel used for these maneuvers remaining on TRMM for the satellite to continue flying until 2011-12. However, most of the remaining fuel may be used to perform a controlled re-entry of the satellite into the Pacific Ocean. The fuel threshold for this operation will be reached in the summer of 2005, although the maneuver would actually occur in late 2006 or 2007. The full science mission would end in 2005 under the controlled re-entry option. This re-entry option is related to the estimated probability of injury (1/5,000) that might occur during an uncontrolled re-entry of the satellite. If the estimated probability of injury exceeds 1/10,000 a satellite is a candidate for a possible controlled re-entry. In the TRMM case the NASA Safety Office examined the related issues and concluded that, although TRMM exceeded the formal threshold, the use of TRMM data in the monitoring and forecasting of hazardous weather gave a public safety benefit that compensated for TRMM slightly exceeding the orbital debris threshold (Martin, 2002). This conclusion was based in part on results of an independent panel during a workshop on benefits of TRMM data in concluded that the benefit of TRMM data in saving lives through its use in operational forecasting could not be quantified. The objective of this paper is to describe a possible technique to estimate the number of lives saved per year and apply it to the TRMM case and the use of its data in monitoring and forecasting tropical cyclones.

  10. Restratification of the upper ocean after the passage of a tropical cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mei, W.; Pasquero, C.

    2010-12-01

    Strong winds associated with tropical cyclones can pump heat downward by stirring the surface warm water with the cooler water beneath, resulting in a cooling in the surface mixed layer and a warming in the subsurface layer (i.e., the upper thermocline). Previous studies addressing the decay of the cold wake and the impact of tropical cyclones on meridional heat transport assume that the cold wake is completely removed by anomalous air-sea heat fluxes within several weeks while the subsurface warming can persist much longer, leading to a net heat gain in the upper ocean, which may further influence the meridional heat transport. Besides air-sea heat fluxes, however, vertical and horizontal heat fluxes associated with dynamical processes in the upper ocean, such as baroclinic instability and large-scale horizontal advection, can also contribute to the recovery and restratification of the upper ocean. Here we use satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data and numerical simulations to investigate the restratification process of the upper ocean after the passage of a tropical cyclone with an emphasis on the role of baroclinic instability. Composite analysis based on satellite observations shows that the cyclone-induced cold wake decays with an e-folding time of 1-2 weeks independent of the strength of the cyclone and of the magnitude of the wake. A high-resolution three-dimensional simulation that includes the process of baroclinic instability well reproduces this decay rate. Also, the simulated upper-ocean restratification resembles the published in-situ observations after the passage of Hurricane Fabian in 2003. The model ocean is restratified after approximately one month with a net heat gain in the water column due to anomalous air-sea heat fluxes. The model shows however that vertical heat fluxes associated with baroclinic instability dominate over air-sea heat fluxes in restoring the climatological mixed layer (CML) heat content during the first month. Such dynamical heat fluxes are in association with cold filaments and rings with a spatial scale of several kilometers, and account for approximately 30% of the full recovery of the CML heat content. Comparison with two-dimensional simulations that exclude baroclinic adjustment further highlights the importance of baroclinic instability: it can not only input a considerable amount of heat into the CML, but establish strong stratification there, inhibiting the downward penetration of heat contributed by diabatic heating at the surface; both effects help fasten the recovery of surface water temperatures. These results indicate that the effect of those submesoscale features must be parameterized in a climate model in order to fully capture the impact of tropical cyclones on the upper-ocean heat content and the Earth's climate. Additional experiments show that the influence of changes in Newtonian cooling rate and post-storm wind strength on the contribution of baroclinic instability to the recovery of the CML heat content is modest, though they can significantly affect the recovery of SST and of the total CML heat content. Further discussion of the role of large-scale horizontal heat advection in the restratification process will also be presented.

  11. The Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Coral Bleaching and Coral Diseases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Hooidonk, R. J.; Huber, M.

    2006-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) impact coral reef ecology in various ways, they cool down ambient sea surface temperature (SST), damage coral reefs by wave action, decrease salinity, increase nutrients, and increase sedimentation rates on a reef. Here we present an investigation into the effect of TCs on coral bleaching and the effect TCs have on the occurrence of coral diseases. Coral bleaching, the condition where the symbiotic zooxanthellae leave the coral host, is one of the major threats to coral reefs. Bleaching occurs in anomalously warm waters, analysis of historical TC tracks show that TCs frequently occur near coral bleaching episodes. Intriguingly, TCs cool down sea surface temperature by vertical mixing and as SST is the most important factor in coral bleaching this phenomenon might have an impact on the duration, occurrence and the resulting coral mortality, of bleaching events. In recent literature a correlation has been seen in the power of tropical cyclones and average sea surface temperature, making the study of the effect of TCs on the ecology of reefs an urgent one. We will present case studies where a TCs occurred near bleaching episodes and a statistical analysis to quantify this effect. To do this we use historical cyclone track data, satellite SST data, and a dataset of reefs. But there are other TC effects on reefs that bear investigation. Because TCs occur near corals that experience thermal stress, the changes in the corals environment caused by TCs might be anomalously detrimental. For example, data suggests that corals, because they are stressed by increased sedimentation, are more vulnerable to disease and algal overgrowth after TC damage. Nutrients have been shown to increase the severity of coral diseases. With satellite data it can be shown that short-term events such as increased run-off due to tropical cyclones can be an important part of the distribution of pollutants and pathogens affecting reefs. Infectious diseases severely affect scleractinian corals. We compare a database of coral disease outbreaks and a database of historical hurricane tracks and quantify run-off using satellite data to investigate the hypothesis that TCs can contribute to the spread of coral diseases by run-off induced transport of sediment, nutrients, pollutants and pathogens to a reef.

  12. Global Tropical Moisture Exports and their Influence on Extratropical Cyclone Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knippertz, P.; Wernli, H.; Gläser, G.

    2012-04-01

    Many case studies have shown that heavy precipitation events and rapid cyclogenesis in the extratropics can be fuelled by moist and warm tropical air masses. Often the tropical moisture export (TME) occurs through a longitudinally confined region in the subtropics. Here a climatology of TMEs to both hemispheres is constructed on the basis of seven-day forward trajectories, which were started daily from the tropical lower troposphere and which were required to reach a water vapour flux of at least 100 g kg-1 m s-1 somewhere poleward of 35 degrees. For this analysis 6-hourly European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim re-analysis data have been used for the 32-year period 1979-2010. A comparison with a TME climatology based upon the older ERA-40 re-analysis shows little sensitivity. The results are then related to the deepening of objectively identified (extratropical) cyclones in both hemispheres. On average TME trajectories move upwards and eastwards on their way across the subtropics in both hemispheres and are associated with both moisture and meridional-wind anomalies. TME shows four main regions of activity in both hemispheres: In the northern hemisphere these are the eastern Pacific ("Pineapple Express" region) with a marked activity maximum in boreal winter, the West Pacific with maximum activity in summer and autumn associated with the Asian monsoon, the narrow Great Plains region with a maximum in spring and summer associated with the North American monsoon and the western Atlantic or Gulf Stream region with a rather flat seasonal cycle. In the southern hemisphere activity peaks over the central and eastern Pacific, eastern South America and the adjacent Atlantic, the western Indian Ocean, and western Australia. Southern hemisphere TME activity peaks in boreal winter, particularly over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, which suggests a significant influence of northern hemispheric Rossby wave energy propagation across the equator. The interannual variability in several regions is significantly modulated by El Niño. A detailed analysis of TME encounters along individual extratropical cyclone tracks reveals several extraordinary cyclone-deepening events associated with TME trajectories (e.g. storm "Klaus" in January 2009). A statistical analysis quantifies the fraction of explosively deepening cyclones that occur with and without a TME influence.

  13. Impact of Aerosols on Tropical Cyclones: An Investigation Using Convection-permitting Model Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hazra, Anupam; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Taraphdar, Sourav; Chen, J. P.; Cotton, William R.

    2013-07-16

    The role of aerosols effect on two tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal are investigated using a convection permitting model with two-moment mixed-phase bulk cloud microphysics scheme. The simulation results show the role of aerosol on the microphysical and dynamical properties of cloud and bring out the change in efficiency of the clouds in producing precipitation. The tracks of the TCs are hardly affected by the changing aerosol types, but the intensity exhibits significant sensitivity due to the change in aerosol contribution. It is also clearly seen from the analyses that higher heating in the middle troposphere within the cyclone center is in response to latent heat release as a consequence of greater graupel formation. Greater heating in the middle level is particularly noticeable for the clean aerosol regime which causes enhanced divergence in the upper level which, in turn, forces the lower level convergence. As a result, the cleaner aerosol perturbation is more unstable within the cyclone core and produces a more intense cyclone as compared to other two perturbations of aerosol. All these studies show the robustness of the concept of TC weakening by storm ingestion of high concentrations of CCN. The consistency of these model results gives us confidence in stating there is a high probability that ingestion of high CCN concentrations in a TC will lead to weakening of the storm but has little impact on storm direction. Moreover, as pollution is increasing over the Indian sub-continent, this study suggests pollution may be weakening TCs over the Bay of Bengal.

  14. Tropical cyclones in two atmospheric (re)analyses and their response in two oceanic reanalyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Barnier, Bernard; Ferry, Nicolas; Vialard, Jérome; Menkes, Christophe E.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Parent, Laurent

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we first evaluate the ability of the European Centre for Medium Range Forecast operational analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis to capture the surface wind signature of tropical cyclones (TCs). In those products, the error on the TC position is typically ∼150 km, cyclones are too big (∼250 km in ERA-Interim and > 100 km in the operational analysis against ∼50 km in observations) and the maximum wind speed is on average underestimated by 15-27 m · s-1 for strong TCs. These biases are generally reduced with the increase of horizontal resolution in the operational analysis, but remain significant at T1279 (∼16 km). We then assess the TCs oceanic temperature signature in two global eddy-permitting ocean reanalyses (GLORYS1 and GLORYS2) forced by the above atmospheric products. The resulting cold wake is on average underestimated by ∼50% in the two oceanic reanalyses. This bias is largely linked to the underestimated TCs strength in the surface forcing, and the resulting underestimated vertical mixing. The overestimated TC radius also tends to overemphasize the Ekman pumping response to the cyclone. Underestimating vertical mixing without underestimating Ekman pumping results in the absence of the observed subsurface warming away from the TC tracks in the two reanalyses. Data assimilation only marginally contributes to reducing these errors, partly because cyclone signatures are not well resolved by the ocean observing system. Based on these results, we propose some assimilation and forcing strategies in order to improve the restitution of TC signatures in oceanic reanalyses.

  15. Objective Operational Utilization of Satellite Microwave Scatterometer Observations of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cardone, Vincent J.; Cox, Andrew T.

    2000-01-01

    This study has demonstrated that high-resolution scatterometer measurements in tropical cyclones and other high-marine surface wind regimes may be retrieved accurately for wind speeds up to about 35 mls (1-hour average at 10 m) when the scatterometer data are processed through a revised geophysical model function, and a spatial adaptive algorithm is applied which utilizes the fact that wind direction is so tightly constrained in tile inner core of severe marine storms that wind direction may be prescribed from conventional data. This potential is demonstrated through case studies with NSCAT data in a severe West Pacific Typhoon (Violet, 1996) and an intense North Atlantic hurricane (Lili, 1996). However, operational scatterometer winds from NSCAT and QuickScat in hurricanes and severe winter storms are biased low in winds above 25 m/s. We have developed an inverse model to specify the entire surface wind field about a tropical cyclone from operational QuickScat scatterometer measurements within 150 nm of a storm center with the restriction that only wind speeds up to 20 m/s are used until improved model function are introduced. The inverse model is used to specify the wind field over the entire life-cycle of Hurricane Floyd (1999) for use to drive an ocean wave model. The wind field compares very favorably with wind fields developed from the copious aircraft flight level winds obtained in this storm.

  16. Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Spinup Time to the Initial Entropy Deficit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, B.; Corbosiero, K. L.; Rios-Berrios, R.; Alland, J.; Berman, J.

    2014-12-01

    The development timescale of a tropical cyclone from genesis to the start of rapid intensification in an axisymmetric model is hypothesized to be a function of the initial entropy deficit. We run a set of idealized simulations in which the initial entropy deficit between the boundary layer and free troposphere varies from 0 to 100 J kg-1 K-1. The development timescale is measured by changes in the integrated kinetic energy of the low-level vortex. This timescale is inversely related to the mean mass flux during the tropical cyclone gestation period. The mean mass flux, in turn, is a function of the statistics of convective updrafts and downdrafts. Contour frequency by altitude diagrams show that entrainment of dry air into updrafts is predominately responsible for differences in the mass flux between the experiments, while downdrafts play a secondary role. Analyses of the potential and kinetic energy budgets indicate less efficient conversion of available potential energy to kinetic energy in the experiments with higher entropy deficits. Entrainment leads to the loss of buoyancy and the destruction of available potential energy. In the presence of strong downdrafts, there can even be a reversal of the conversion term. Weaker and more radially confined radial inflow results in less convergence of angular momentum in the experiments with higher entropy deficits. The result is a slower vortex spinup and a reduction in steady-state vortex size, despite similar steady-state maximum intensities among the experiments.

  17. Punctuated global tropical cyclone activity over the past 5,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan; Forsyth, Anthony

    2012-07-01

    There are now a substantial number of millennial scale records of tropical cyclones from a variety of locations globally. Some of these, such as those in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, show patterns of long-term, generally intense, tropical cyclone (TC) behaviour that have been suggested to be due to either variations in ENSO or shifts in the position of the Atlantic High pressure system and the jet stream. Comparisons are made here of the sedimentary overwash records from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean Basin with the overwash records from the north-west Pacific and beach ridge records from the south-west Pacific and south east Indian Ocean basins. There is a substantial degree of synchroneity in global intense TC behaviour over the past 3,000 to 5,000 years. One of the most striking aspects of these records is they all display extended alternating periods (centuries to millennia) of relative quiescence and heightened intense TC activity irrespective of both the resolution and type of long-term TC record. The cause(s) of this punctuated activity are at present difficult to identify but are likely exogenic in origin rather than due to an intrinsic aspect of the records or the methods used to derive them. The identification of punctuated global long-term TC behaviour is important for understanding future TC activity and for assessing risk to coastal communities.

  18. Contribution of tropical cyclone for the preconditioning of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during CINDY2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubota, H.; Yoneyama, K.; Hamada, J.

    2012-12-01

    During the international field experiment "Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on intraseasonal variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY2011)", three Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) were generated over the Indian Ocean. In this study, the preconditioning process of the third MJO is investigated. After the second active phase of MJO reached maritime continent in early December 2011, its eastward propagation became unclear. Different convections were activated over the maritime continent in mid-December and third MJO was generated in late December over the Indian Ocean. During the preconditioning stage of the third MJO, westward propagating disturbances were observed from Sumatera Island to the central Indian Ocean and moistened the atmosphere. Convections over the Sumatera Island were activated from December 15th when the moist air mass reached from South China Sea. The origin of the moist air mass was tropical cyclone which was formed in South China Sea in December 10th. The high moisture associated with tropical cyclone activated the convection over Sumatera Island, promoted westward propagating disturbances, and acted a favorable environment for the preconditioning of the MJO.

  19. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2012-06-01

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are presented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices. Capsule: "Combining dynamical modeling of high-impact weather using traditional regional climate models with statistical techniques allows for comprehensive sampling of the full distribution, uncertainty estimation, direct assessment of impacts, and increased confidence in future changes."

  20. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2013-10-19

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.

  1. Mechanisms for Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia-Rivera, J. M.; Lin, Y.

    2013-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to simulate the last eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of Hurricane Katrina (2005) just before it's landfall in the Louisiana coastline. In this study, we pursue a complete understanding of the physics behind the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) in tropical cyclones. The simulation results show the occurrence of the early stages of an ERC in the simulated storm just before landfall. This confirms that with the appropriate set of physics parameterization schemes, grid spacing and initial conditions, the numerical model is able to reproduce ERCs on certain tropical cyclones with no data assimilation or extra data inputs. Strong updrafts are observed to converge in a ring outside the primary eyewall of Hurricane Katrina (2005) suggesting SEF during that period. The increase of divergence outside the primary eyewall with an outer-ring of convergence forming above the boundary layer can be part of the mechanisms that lead to SEF. Also, potential vorticity (PV) field is analyzed for its possible relationship with the development of the secondary eyewall. This detailed study of the pre-ERC events in the inner-core of Hurricane Katrina can build the foundations for testing some of the existing hypotheses for the development of secondary eyewalls leading to new ideas behind their formation.

  2. An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2010 Hurricane Season

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    Estimates are presented for the tropical cyclone activity expected for the 2010 North Atlantic basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the 2010 season will be more active than the 2009 season, reflecting increased frequencies more akin to that of the current more active phase that has been in vogue since 1995. Averages (+/- 1 sd) during the current more active phase are 14.5+/-4.7, 7.8+/-3.2, 3.7+/-1.8, and 2+/- 2, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the number of hurricanes (NH), the number of major hurricanes (NMH), and the number of United States (U.S.) land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH). Based on the "usual" behavior of the 10-yma parametric first differences, one expects NTC = 19+/-2, NH = 14+/-2, NMH = 7+/-2, and NUSLFH = 4+/-2 for the 2010 hurricane season; however, based on the "best guess" 10-yma values of surface-air temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) and the Oceanic Nino Index, one expects NTC > or equals 16, NH > or equals 14, NMH > or equals 7, and NUSLFH > or equals 6.

  3. Evaluation of Vertical Motion Contributions Towards Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Under Varying Wind Shear

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harnos, D. S.; Nesbitt, S. W.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction remains one of the primary challenges facing the meteorological community despite its dependence upon the secondary circulation being well established. Recent attention has focused upon the region residing within the radius of maximum wind due to its increased inertial stability, where heating is more efficient to develop the TC warm core. Here a method to objectively identify the 3-D evolution of the radius of maximum wind to act as an analysis region is utilized with Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of rapid intensification episodes for two Atlantic basin tropical cyclones under low (Hurricane Ike 2008) and high (Hurricane Earl 2010) wind shear. The TC simulations are utilized to compare and contrast vertical motion and diabatic heating field evolutions relative to timing of rapid intensification. Further, a method to quantify three-dimensional individual updraft contributions relative to the maximum height by each updraft feature is used as a proxy for precipitation regimes (e.g. shallow cumulus, cumulus congestus, deep convection, and convective bursts). Quantified for each precipitation regime are vertical fluxes of mass, water vapor, cloud particles, and hydrometeors as they are intrinsically linked to diabatic heating and resultant magnitude of the ascending branch of the TC secondary circulation. The perspective yielded by each of these simulations enhances our understanding of TC intensification while also helping guide potential observing platform strategies and real-time forecasting applications.

  4. A New Method to estimate Daily Tropical Cyclone Precipitation from the GHCND Rain Gauges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, L.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S. D.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical Cyclone Precipitation (TCP) contributes a large portion of very extreme hydrological events. An accurate estimation of a long term TCP climatology is an essential to understand how it varies in the past and will change in the future. The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCND) provides a global coverage of territorial surface daily weather observations with a reasonable spatial density. In this study, we will develop a new method to estimate the TCP from the GHCND daily rain observations and other TC Track information. We will focus on all historical storms impacted the North America Continent (from both the Atlantic and the Pacific Sides) in this study. The new method will consider major factors that influence the estimation accuracy, including the variations in spatial density of rain gauges, sizes and the forward speed of storms, and high wind speeds causing the underestimate of precipitation by the rain bucket. We will provide both the point estimation at the rain gauge and gridded product at 0.25 degree. The gridded product will be finally validated by the precipitation estimation from TRMM. We will make tests and tune this method to optimally fit the available historical observations, so it can be applied for other regions in the world in the future. Key Words: Tropical Cyclone, Precipitation, New Estimation Method

  5. The benefits of using short interval satellite images to derive winds for tropical cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, E.; Gentry, R. C.; Shenk, W. E.; Oliver, V.

    1978-01-01

    During the 1975, 1976, and 1977, NOAA's National Environmental Satellite Service and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center conducted a cooperative program to determine the optimum resolution and frequency of satellite images for deriving winds to study and forecast tropical cyclones. Rapid scan images were obtained at 7.5 minute interval from SMS-2 for hurricane Eloise and cyclone Caroline, and at 3 minute intervals from GOES-1 for tropical storms Belle, Holly, and Anita. Cloud motions were derived from these images using the Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System. Winds that were derived from the movement of upper and lower tropospheric level clouds using rapid scan data were compared with the 15 and 30 minute interval data. Greater than 10 (5) times as many clouds could be tracked to obtain winds using 3 and 7.5 minute rapid scan images as when using 15 or 30 minute interval images. A few bright areas within the central dense overcast which appeared to be moving with the winds at low levels were tracked.

  6. Tropical Cyclones Cause CaCO3 Undersaturation of Coral Reef Seawater in a High-CO2 World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manzello, D.; Enochs, I.; Carlton, R.; Musielewicz, S.; Gledhill, D. K.

    2013-12-01

    Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2-system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current 'business-as-usual' CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω < 1.0) for high-Mg calcite and aragonite mineral phases at acidification levels before the end of this century. Week-long periods of undersaturation occur for 18 mol% high-Mg calcite after storms by the end of the century. In a high-CO2 world, CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater can occur as a result of even modest tropical cyclones. The expected increase in the strength, frequency, and rainfall of the most severe tropical cyclones with climate change in combination with ocean acidification will negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs over this century.

  7. Tropical cyclones cause CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater in a high-CO2 world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manzello, Derek; Enochs, Ian; Musielewicz, Sylvia; Carlton, Renée.; Gledhill, Dwight

    2013-10-01

    Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2 system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current "business-as-usual" CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω < 1.0) for high-Mg calcite and aragonite mineral phases at acidification levels before the end of this century. Week-long periods of undersaturation occur for 18 mol % high-Mg calcite after storms by the end of the century. In a high-CO2 world, CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater will occur as a result of even modest tropical cyclones. The expected increase in the strength, frequency, and rainfall of the most severe tropical cyclones with climate change in combination with ocean acidification will negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs.

  8. Oscillation responses to tropical Cyclone Gonu in northern Arabian Sea from a moored observing system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhankun; DiMarco, Steven F.; Stössel, Marion M.; Zhang, Xiaoqian; Howard, Matthew K.; du Vall, Ken

    2012-06-01

    In June 2007, tropical Cyclone Gonu passed over an ocean observing system consisting of a deep autonomous mooring system in the northern Arabian Sea and a shallow cabled mooring system in the Sea of Oman. Gonu was the largest cyclone known to have occurred in the Arabian Sea and to strike the Arabian Peninsula. The instruments on the moorings continuously recorded water velocities, temperature, conductivity, pressure, dissolved oxygen (DO) and turbidity at multiple depths and at hourly intervals during the storm. Near-inertial oscillations at all moorings from thermocline to seafloor are coincident with the arrival of Gonu. Sub-inertial oscillations with periods of 2-10 day are recorded at the post-storm relaxation stage of Gonu, primarily in the thermocline of the deep array and at the onshore regions of the shallow array. These oscillations consist of warm, saline water masses, likely originating from the Persian Gulf. Prominent 12.7-day sub-inertial waves, measured at a station ∼300 km offshore, are bottom-intensified and have characteristics of baroclinic topographically trapped waves. Theoretical results from a topographically trapped wave model are in a good agreement with the observed 12.7-day waves at Murray Ridge. The wavelength of the 12.7-day waves is about 590 km calculated from the dispersion relationship. Further analysis suggests that a resonant standing wave is responsible for trapping the 12.7-day wave energy inside the Sea of Oman basin. The observational results reported here are the first measurements of deepwater responses to a tropical cyclone in the Sea of Oman/Arabian Sea. Our study demonstrates the utility of sustained monitoring for studying the impact of extreme weather events on the ocean.

  9. The Air-Sea Interface and Surface Stress under Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soloviev, Alexander; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark; Ginis, Isaac

    2013-04-01

    Air-sea interaction dramatically changes from moderate to very high wind speed conditions (Donelan et al. 2004). Unresolved physics of the air-sea interface are one of the weakest components in tropical cyclone prediction models. Rapid disruption of the air-water interface under very high wind speed conditions was reported in laboratory experiments (Koga 1981) and numerical simulations (Soloviev et al. 2012), which resembled the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability at an interface with very large density difference. Kelly (1965) demonstrated that the KH instability at the air-sea interface can develop through parametric amplification of waves. Farrell and Ioannou (2008) showed that gustiness results in the parametric KH instability of the air-sea interface, while the gusts are due to interacting waves and turbulence. The stochastic forcing enters multiplicatively in this theory and produces an exponential wave growth, augmenting the growth from the Miles (1959) theory as the turbulence level increases. Here we complement this concept by adding the effect of the two-phase environment near the mean interface, which introduces additional viscosity in the system (turning it into a rheological system). The two-phase environment includes air-bubbles and re-entering spray (spume), which eliminates a portion of the wind-wave wavenumber spectrum that is responsible for a substantial part of the air sea drag coefficient. The previously developed KH-type interfacial parameterization (Soloviev and Lukas 2010) is unified with two versions of the wave growth model. The unified parameterization in both cases exhibits the increase of the drag coefficient with wind speed until approximately 30 m/s. Above this wind speed threshold, the drag coefficient either nearly levels off or even slightly drops (for the wave growth model that accounts for the shear) and then starts again increasing above approximately 65 m/s wind speed. Remarkably, the unified parameterization reveals a local minimum of the drag coefficient wind speed dependence around 65 m/s. This minimum may contribute to the rapid intensification of storms to major tropical cyclones. The subsequent slow increase of the drag coefficient with wind above 65 m/s serves as an obstacle for further intensification of tropical cyclones. Such dependence may explain the observed bi-modal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity. Implementation of the new parameterization into operational models is expected to improve predictions of tropical cyclone intensity and the associated wave field. References: Donelan, M. A., B. K. Haus, N. Reul, W. Plant, M. Stiassnie, H. Graber, O. Brown, and E. Saltzman, 2004: On the limiting aerodynamic roughness of the ocean in very strong winds, Farrell, B.F, and P.J. Ioannou, 2008: The stochastic parametric mechanism for growth of wind-driven surface water waves. Journal of Physical Oceanography 38, 862-879. Kelly, R.E., 1965: The stability of an unsteady Kelvin-Helmholtz flow. J. Fluid Mech. 22, 547-560. Koga, M., 1981: Direct production of droplets from breaking wind-waves-Its observation by a multi-colored overlapping exposure technique, Tellus 33, 552-563. Miles, J.W., 1959: On the generation of surface waves by shear flows, part 3. J. Fluid. Mech. 6, 583-598. Soloviev, A.V. and R. Lukas, 2010: Effects of bubbles and sea spray on air-sea exchanges in hurricane conditions. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 136, 365-376. Soloviev, A., A. Fujimura, and S. Matt, 2012: Air-sea interface in hurricane conditions. J. Geophys. Res. 117, C00J34.

  10. Targeted observations to improve tropical cyclone track forecasts in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aberson, Sim David

    In 1997, the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began conducting operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve operational forecast models. During the first two years, twenty-four missions were conducted around tropical cyclones threatening the continental United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Global Positioning System dropwindsondes were released from the aircraft at 150--200 km intervals along the flight track in the tropical cyclone environment to obtain wind, temperature, and humidity profiles from flight level (around 150 hPa) to the surface. The observations were processed and formatted aboard the aircraft and transmitted to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There, they were ingested into the Global Data Assimilation System that subsequently provides initial and time-dependent boundary conditions for numerical models that forecast tropical cyclone track and intensity. Three dynamical models were employed in testing the targeting and sampling strategies. With the assimilation into the numerical guidance of all the observations gathered during the surveillance missions, only the 12-h Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model forecast showed statistically significant improvement. Neither the forecasts from the Aviation run of the Global Spectral Model nor the shallow-water VICBAR model were improved with the assimilation of the dropwindsonde data. This mediocre result is found to be due mainly to the difficulty in operationally quantifying the storm-motion vector used to create accurate synthetic data to represent the tropical cyclone vortex in the models. A secondary limit on forecast improvements from the surveillance missions is the limited amount of data provided by the one surveillance aircraft in regular missions. The inability of some surveillance missions to surround the tropical cyclone with dropwindsonde observations is a possible third limit, though the results are inconclusive. Due to limited aircraft resources, optimal observing strategies for these missions must be developed. Since observations in areas of decaying error modes are unlikely to have large impact on subsequent forecasts, such strategies should be based on taking observations in those geographic locations corresponding to the most rapidly growing error modes in the numerical models and on known deficiencies in current data assimilation systems. Here, the most rapidly growing modes are represented by areas of large forecast spread in the NCEP bred-mode global ensemble forecasting system. The sampling strategy requires sampling the entire target region at approximately the same resolution as the North American rawinsonde network to limit the possibly spurious spread of information from dropwindsonde observations into data-sparse regions where errors are likely to grow. When only the subset of data in these fully-sampled target regions is assimilated into the numerical models, statistically significant reduction of the track forecast errors of up to 25% within the critical first two days of the forecast are seen. These model improvements are comparable with the cumulative business-as-usual track forecast model improvements expected over eighteen years.

  11. Large-Scale Influences on the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Karl (2010)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffin, K.; Bosart, L. F.

    2012-12-01

    The events leading up to the genesis of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Karl (2010) provides a unique opportunity to examine the continuing problem of understanding tropical cyclogenesis. The PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field campaign allowed for detailed investigation of the tropical disturbance that served as the precursor to TC Karl as it progressed westward through the Caribbean Sea. The purpose of this presentation is to examine the evolution of the pre-Karl disturbance using both common synoptic-scale analyses as well as statistically-based equatorial wave analyses, focusing on where these analyses complement and enhance each other. One of the major factors in the initial spin-up of the pre-Karl tropical disturbance is a surge of southerly and westerly winds from northern South America on 8-10 September 2010. As the surge entered the Caribbean on 9 September, it aided in the formation of a nearly closed earth-relative cyclonic circulation near the southern Leeward Islands. This circulation weakened late on 10 September and remained weak through 13 September before increased organization led to TC genesis on 14 September. This southerly wind surge can be traced to a well-defined surge of anomalously cold air and enhanced southerly winds originating in the lee of the Argentinian Andes over a week prior. While the temperature anomalies wash out prior to reaching the equator, anomalous low-level winds progress into Colombia and Venezuela, where topography aids in turning the southerly winds eastward. An investigation of the pre-Karl environment utilizing wavenumber-frequency filtering techniques also suggests that the initial spin-up of pre-Karl can be associated with the active phase of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW). The observed formation of the nearly closed cyclonic circulation on 10 September is well timed with the passage of anomalous westerly winds along and behind the convectively active phase of a CCKW. These westerly wind anomalies have been associated with an increase in the frequency of TC genesis, commonly attributed to the generation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and a reduction in climatological shear over the western Atlantic by other researchers. Further, the total wind field associated with a CCKW promotes deep convection via the enhancement of low-level convergence and upper-level outflow ahead of the wave. The passage of the CCKW during 8-10 September occurs in concert with the aforementioned cold surge-related enhanced low-level southerly winds that turn eastward as they cross the equator, further strengthening the westerly wind anomalies associated with the CCKW. This favorable juxtaposition of low-level southerly and westerly flows results in the amplification of convective activity associated with the CCKW around the time the CCKW interacts with the pre-Karl disturbance and likely serves to enhance the resulting low-level cyclonic circulation, eventually leading to the genesis of TC Karl.

  12. Suppression of Powerful Clouds and Prevention of D Estructive Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones, S Evere Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, and Catastrophic Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krasilnikov, E.

    Destructive tropical storms, hurricanes (typhoons), tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and extratropical cyclones and storms resulted in catastrophic floods annually inflict multitudinous death and injury and bring huge material damage in many countries. This problem is highly important and to date has not been solved. At the same time, practically all researches made concerning these phenomena fail to take into account that the origin and intensification of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and tornadoes take place under conditions of an abnormally strong electric field which together with electromagnetohydrodynamic interaction occupies a key position in the ntensification process. The detailed description of the electromagnetohydrodynamic model explaining the processes of energy conversion in tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and tornadoes is presented. Herewith, tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds generating tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones resulting in catastrophic floods are the powerful cloud systems containing huge mass of water. According to a hypothesis proposed in the paper an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting of this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in stability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather long-duration time. On the basis of the hypothesis a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease of an electric field, a sudden increase of precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method based on the natural phenomenon ensures prevention of intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon) stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It ensures as well suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  13. Tropical Cyclone Outflow Structure Observed during the Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) and Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) Experiments (2012-2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Black, P. G.; Hendricks, E. A.; Doyle, J. D.; Moskaitis, J.; Velden, C.

    2014-12-01

    Little is known about the detailed vertical and horizontal structure of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) outflow layer owing to lack of in-situ observations in this region over the years. We hypothesize that TC outflow structure change due either to external environmental interactions or internal dynamical changes are related to TC intensity changes, making the outflow layer an important region of study for improvement of TC predictability. Dropsonde profiles through TC outflow layers were obtained during the Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) experiment (2012-2014) and the Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment (2014). Using mini-dropsondes deployed with the Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS) from a NASA Global Hawk and eXpendable Digital Dropsondes (XDDs) deployed with the High Definition Sounding System (HDSS) from a NASA WB-57F, new insights into the vertical structure of the TC outflow layer have been obtained. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) show that 'far-field' outflow jet dropsondes in Hurricane Leslie (2012) were obtained during a period of jet development and deformation in response the 'pincer effect' of an upper trough to the east and an upper cold low to west of Leslie. We speculate that the resulting deformation of the outflow layer and associated jet feature may have been responsible for limiting further development of Leslie. AMVs in Hurricane Nadine (2012) and pre-TC Gabrielle (2013) showed that outflow jets sampled by dropsondes developed over time scales of several hours. Wind profile observations in outflow jet 'roots' near 'convective bursts' showed that they were weaker and thicker near the convection and became thinner and stronger downstream as the 'far-field' region was sampled. All dropsonde profiles showed that the outflow layer contained numerous thin isothermal layers and layers of enhanced vertical wind shear. These numerous thin unstable layers were characterized by a super-critical Richardson number in excess of ¼. The outflow layer therefore appears to contain multiple transient thin unstable layers generating turbulence that may play a role in the dynamics of the outflow layer and its impact on TC predictability.

  14. Analysis of convectively generated gravity waves within a tropical cyclone environment: Model simulation and satellite observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuester, Michele Ann

    This study investigates characteristics that are included in various parameterization schemes for gravity waves in short and long term numerical weather prediction (NWP) and global climate models (GCM). The results from this study show that it is important to include not only the heating depth of the source, but also the speed and direction of the source movement. Additionally, the affects of local winds at the source are needed to describe the generation of gravity waves from deep convection in tropical cyclones. This ensures that the forcing terms in the stratosphere from these sources are more representative of the entire wave spectrum. A collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has developed simulations of a North Atlantic tropical cyclone at both tropical storm and hurricane stages during NASA's fourth field campaign in the Convection and Moisture Experiment series (CAMEX-4) in 2001 using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) fifth generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). MM5 simulations are validated by data collected during CAMEX-4 and used to investigate waves generated by the strong convection of a developing tropical cyclone. Observations of gravity waves created by deep convection during the 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season with the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua platform are used to locate and further investigate characteristics of these waves. Information about gravity waves and their sources can be inferred from horizontal and vertical wind and temperature perturbations. Fourier transform analysis of these perturbation fields gives a regional view while wavelet analysis gives a local picture of wave activity. Investigation of the movement of convective sources and local winds gives further insight into the mechanisms that can cause gravity wave generation. Analysis of AIRS Level 1B radiances and Level 2 temperature retrieval, and National Climate Data Center (NCDC) Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) System data allow investigation of local wave events and the sources that generate them.

  15. The Interdecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate in the North Western Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, C.; Chen, C.

    2011-12-01

    The tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rate, including tropical depression stage, during 1945 to 2009 is analyzed using Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data. The area of interest is divided into many 4x4-degree boxes, and the boxes in which the intensification rate is 2.5 knots/6hrs or more are defined as a hot zone. The spatial pattern and temporal variability of the hot zone are discussed. On monthly time scale, the hot zone extends northeastward starting from June and retreats southwestward after September. The spatial pattern of the hot zone shows a phase change around 1977, coincident with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Therefore, the correlation between intensification rate, smoothed by 21-year running mean, of each 4x4-degree box and the PDO index is computed. The result shows an area with highly positive correlation (>= 0.8) stretching from southeast ocean of Japan via Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, coastal regions of Guangdong, Hainan Island to coastal regions of Vietnam, and an area with highly negative correlation (<=-0.8) over Philippine Sea. This correlation map indicates that during the PDO warm phase, the low latitude hot zone tends to be smaller, and the weakening of TCs over higher latitudes becomes less significant as well. In other words, the TC intensity tends to change less during the PDO warm phase on average. PDO has the most significant signal on sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the north central Pacific with its secondary signal in the tropics. However, our preliminary result shows that the most possible mechanism for PDO to influence TC development in the North Western Pacific is through the large-scale atmospheric circulation, rather SSTA in the tropics. When comparing the 850 hPa flow of the PDO warm phase with that of PDO cold phase, an anti-cyclonic anomaly appears in the vicinity of Philippine. Accompany with this anti-cyclonic anomaly is weaker low level vorticity and weaker high level divergence, all are not favorable for TC intensification during the PDO warm phase.

  16. Investigation into impact of tropical cyclones on the ionosphere using GPS sounding and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyakova, Anna; Perevalova, Natalia

    Spatial-temporal dynamics of Total Electron Content (TEC) disturbances over zones with higher cyclonic activity was investigated. The TEC data from the international network of two-frequency ground-based GPS receivers were used. An increase in intensity of wave TEC disturbances in two period ranges (2-20 min and 15-40 min) was registered under quiet geo-magnetic conditions during several tropical cyclones. We mapped the TEC variation intensity for strong tropical cyclones observed over the Northwest Atlantic Ocean in August-November 2005. It is shown that analysis of spatial distribution of ionospheric disturbances using TEC variation maps allows us to select disturbances most probably associated with cyclones. Com-parative analysis of TEC variations with changes in meteorological parameters was made. For this purpose we used the NCEP Reanalysis data provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boul-der, Colorado, USA, from their website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. We also estimated influence of the wind atmospheric regime on appearance of ionospheric disturbances generated by tropical cyclones. This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 08-05-00658).

  17. ARTICLES: The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunion, Jason P.; Velden, Christopher S.

    2004-03-01

    A deep well-mixed, dry adiabatic layer forms over the Sahara Desert and Sahel regions of North Africa during the late spring, summer, and early fall. As this air mass advances westward and emerges from the northwest African coast, it is undercut by cool, moist low-level air and becomes the Saharan air layer (SAL). The SAL contains very dry air and substantial mineral dust lifted from the arid desert surface over North Africa, and is often associated with a midlevel easterly jet. A temperature inversion occurs at the base of the SAL where very warm Saharan air overlies relatively cooler air above the ocean surface. Recently developed multispectral Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) infrared imagery detects the SAL's entrained dust and dry air as it moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. This imagery reveals that when the SAL engulfs tropical waves, tropical disturbances, or preexisting tropical cyclones (TCs), its dry air, temperature inversion, and strong vertical wind shear (associated with the midlevel easterly jet) can inhibit their ability to strengthen. The SAL's influence on TCs may be a factor in the TC intensity forecast problem in the Atlantic and may also contribute to this ocean basin's relatively reduced level of TC activity.

  18. Possible relationship between East Indian Ocean SST and tropical cyclone affecting Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, J. Y.; Choi, K. S.; Kim, B. J.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, a strong negative correlation was found between East Indian Ocean (EIO) SST and frequency of summertime tropical cyclone (TC) affecting Korea.For the Warm EIO SST years, the TCs mostly occurred in the southwestern region of tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and migrated west toward the southern coast of China and Indochinese peninsula through the South China Sea. This is because the anomalous easterlies, induced by the development of anomalous anticyclone (weakening of monsoon trough) from the tropical central Pacific to the southern coast of China, served as the steering flows for the westward migration of TCs. In contrast, for the cold EIO SST years, the TCs mostly occurred in the northeastern region of tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and migrated toward Korea and Japan located in the mid-latitudes of East Asia through the East China Sea. This is because the northeastward retreat of subtropical western North Pacific high (SWNPH) was more distinct for the cold EIO SST years compared to the warm EIO SST years. Therefore, the TCs of warm EIO SST years weakened or dissipated shortly due to the effect of geographical features as they land on the southern coast of China and Indochinese peninsula, whereas the TCs of cold EIO SST years had stronger intensity than the TCs of warm EIO SST years as sufficient energy is supplied from the ocean while moving toward Korea and Japan.

  19. Possible Linkage between Monsoon Trough Variability and Tropical Cyclone Activity over Western North Pacific: Role of Tropical Waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Liang; Huang, Ronghui; Wen, Zhiping

    2014-05-01

    The present study investigates the influence of the monsoon trough (MT) on the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific during July-November for the period 1979-2007. It is shown that the TC activity is closely related to the MT location. During the years when the MT extends eastward (retreats westward), more (less) TCs form within the southeastern quadrant of the western North Pacific. Such a relationship can be explained by the changes in tropical waves, such as mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves and (tropical depression) TD-type disturbances, associated with the movement of the MT. An eastward extension of the MT coincides with enhanced TD-MRG type disturbances and a clear MRG-to-TD transition over the southeast quadrant of the western North Pacific. Such a transition is unclear during the years when the MT retreats westward. These waves associated with the eastern extension of the MT are favorable for TC genesis, while those associated with the westward retreat of the MT are not. Diagnosis of the barotropic energy conversion indicates that both the rotational and divergent components of the background flow change associated with MT are responsible for energy conversion from the mean flow to the TD-MRG perturbations. This is an important reason for the linkage between MT variability and TC genesis over the western North Pacific.

  20. Possible relationship between East Asian summer monsoon and western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Ki-Seon; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Hae-Dong; Kang, Sung-Dae

    2016-04-01

    In the present study, the fact that strong positive correlations have existed between East Asian summer monsoons (EASMs) and western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the last 37 years was found. To figure out the cause of these correlations, 7 years (positive East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) phase) that have the highest values and 7 years (negative EASMI phase) that have the lowest values in the normalized EASM index were selected and the differences in averages between the two phases were analyzed. In the positive EASMI phase, TCs mainly occurred in the northwestern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and showed a tendency to move from the far eastern waters of the Philippines, pass the East China Sea, and move northward toward Korea and Japan. On the 500 hPa streamline, whereas anomalous anticyclones developed in the East Asia middle-latitude region, anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific. Therefore, in this phase, whereas EASMs were weakened, western North Pacific summer monsoons (WNPSMs) were strengthened so that some more TCs could occur. In addition, in the case of the East China Sea and the southern waters of Japan located between the two anomalous pressure systems, TCs could move some more toward the East Asia middle-latitude region in this phase. According to an analysis of the 850 hPa relative vorticity, negative anomalies were strengthened in the East Asia middle-latitude region while positive anomalies were strengthened in the region south to 25 N. Therefore, in the positive EASMI phase, whereas EASMs were weakened, WNPSMs were strengthened so that some more TCs could occur. According to an analysis of the 850 and 200 hPa horizontal divergence, whereas anomalous downward flows were strengthened in the East Asia middle-latitude region, anomalous upward flows were strengthened in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific. According to an analysis of 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear and 600 hPa relative humidity, negative anomalies and positive anomalies were strengthened in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, respectively, to provide good atmospheric environments in which some more TCs could occur in the positive EASMI phase. According to an analysis of sea surface temperatures (SST) too, whereas cold SST anomalies were strengthened in the East Asia middle-latitude region, warm SST anomalies were strengthened in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific to provide good marine environments in which some more TCs could occur in the positive EASMI phase.

  1. Possible relationship between East Asian summer monsoon and western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Ki-Seon; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Hae-Dong; Kang, Sung-Dae

    2015-02-01

    In the present study, the fact that strong positive correlations have existed between East Asian summer monsoons (EASMs) and western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the last 37 years was found. To figure out the cause of these correlations, 7 years (positive East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) phase) that have the highest values and 7 years (negative EASMI phase) that have the lowest values in the normalized EASM index were selected and the differences in averages between the two phases were analyzed. In the positive EASMI phase, TCs mainly occurred in the northwestern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and showed a tendency to move from the far eastern waters of the Philippines, pass the East China Sea, and move northward toward Korea and Japan. On the 500 hPa streamline, whereas anomalous anticyclones developed in the East Asia middle-latitude region, anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific. Therefore, in this phase, whereas EASMs were weakened, western North Pacific summer monsoons (WNPSMs) were strengthened so that some more TCs could occur. In addition, in the case of the East China Sea and the southern waters of Japan located between the two anomalous pressure systems, TCs could move some more toward the East Asia middle-latitude region in this phase. According to an analysis of the 850 hPa relative vorticity, negative anomalies were strengthened in the East Asia middle-latitude region while positive anomalies were strengthened in the region south to 25 N. Therefore, in the positive EASMI phase, whereas EASMs were weakened, WNPSMs were strengthened so that some more TCs could occur. According to an analysis of the 850 and 200 hPa horizontal divergence, whereas anomalous downward flows were strengthened in the East Asia middle-latitude region, anomalous upward flows were strengthened in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific. According to an analysis of 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear and 600 hPa relative humidity, negative anomalies and positive anomalies were strengthened in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, respectively, to provide good atmospheric environments in which some more TCs could occur in the positive EASMI phase. According to an analysis of sea surface temperatures (SST) too, whereas cold SST anomalies were strengthened in the East Asia middle-latitude region, warm SST anomalies were strengthened in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific to provide good marine environments in which some more TCs could occur in the positive EASMI phase.

  2. "Electrically-Hot" Convection and Tropical Cyclone Development in the Eastern Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leppert, K.; Petersen, W. A.; Williams, E.

    2008-12-01

    The depth and intensity of convective-scale "hot" towers in intensifying tropical disturbances has been hypothesized to play a role in tropical cyclogenesis via dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks on the larger meso-to-synoptic scale circulation. In this investigation we investigate the role that widespread and/or intense lightning-producing convection (i.e., "electrically-hot towers") resident in African Easterly Waves (AEW) may play in tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. NCEP reanalysis data for the months of July to November for the years 2004, 2006, and 2007 are analyzed for the domain of 5° N - 15° N and 50° W - 30° E. Specifically, NCEP data for individual AEWs are partitioned into northerly, southerly, trough, and ridge phases using the 700 hPa meridional winds. Subsequently, information from National Hurricane Center storm reports were divided up into developing and non-developing waves (i.e. tropical cyclogenesis). Finally, composites were created of developing and non- developing waves using the NCEP variables, but with the inclusion of lightning flash count and infrared brightness temperature information. The Zeus and World Wide Lightning Location Network lightning data were used for the lightning information, and the IR brightness temperature data was extracted from the NASA global-merged infrared brightness temperature dataset. Results indicate that developing AEW composites have greater low-level positive vorticity (9.0E-06 s-1 vs. 4.5E-06 s-1), slightly greater upward vertical motion (-0.035 Pascals s-1 vs. -0.028 Pascals s-1), slightly higher upper-level divergence(2.5E-06 s-1 vs. 1.8E-06 s-1), a higher mid-level (i.e. 600 hPa) moisture anomaly (0.6 g kg-1 vs. -0.15 g kg-1), cooler average brightness temperatures (273.5K vs. 278.4K), and more lightning strikes (1018 vs. 641 strikes) when compared against the non-developing composites. These results collectively indicate that AEWs producing tropical cyclones may have increased convective activity- and in particular, convective activity producing more lightning. To complement the composite work, we are further investigating the degree to which the aforementioned behavior is observed in individual cases. Work is also proceeding to identify whether the higher lightning strike/cooler brightness temperature behavior in the AEW tropical cyclone-developing composites is the result of more widespread convection producing a larger frequency of lightning, or just a few more vertically developed and electrically-intense convective towers.

  3. Global Tropical Cyclone Winds from the QuikSCAT and OceanSAT-2 Scatterometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stiles, B. W.; Danielson, R. E.; Poulsen, W. L.; Fore, A.; Brennan, M. J.; Shen, T. J.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    We have produced a comprehensive set of tropical cyclone storm wind retrieval scenes for all ten years of QuikSCAT data and one year of OceanSAT-2 data. The wind speeds were corrected for rain and optimized to avoid saturation at high winds using an artificial neural network method similar to that in [1] and [2]. The QuikSCAT wind imagery and the quantitative speed, direction, and backscatter data can be obtained at http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov. The QuikSCAT wind speeds have been validated against best track intensity (i.e., maximum wind speeds), H*WIND tropical cyclone wind model analysis fields, and wind speeds from aircraft overflights (GPS drop wind sondes and step frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) wind measurements). Storms from all basins are included for a total of 21600 scenes over the ten years of nominal QuikSCAT operations. Of these, 11435 scenes include the best track center of the cyclone in the retrieved wind field. Among these, 3295 were of tropical storms and 788, 367, 330, 289, and 55 were of category 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes, respectively, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. In addition to the QuikSCAT hurricane winds, we have also processed one year of wind fields from the Indian Space Research organization (ISRO) OceanSAT-2 satellite. OceanSAT-2 employs a scanning pencil beam Ku-band scatterometer with a design similar to QuikSCAT. JPL and NOAA have been working extensively with ISRO to aid in cross calibration between OceanSAT-2 and QuikSCAT. Toward this end the QuikSCAT instrument has been repointed in order to acquire data at the OceanSAT-2 incidence angles, and several meetings in India between the teams have taken place. The neural network that was trained on QuikSCAT data was used to retrieve OceanSAT-2 winds. The backscatter inputs to the network were transformed to match the histograms of the corresponding values in the QuikSCAT data set. We examine the scatterometer winds to investigate the relationship between asymmetry in the wind fields and cyclone intensity. In particular, we estimate the typical storm relative wind speed distribution as a function of storm intensity, intensification (max wind speed change), and geographical location. The goal of this investigation is to determine whether or not asymmetry in the speed distribution correlates with storm intensification. References: [1] B. W. Stiles and R.S. Dunbar, "A Neural Network Technique For Improving The Accuracy Of Scatterometer Winds In Rainy Conditions." IEEE TGARS, Vol 48 , No. 8, P 3114-3122, August 2010. [2] B. W Stiles, S. Hristova-Veleva, et al, "Obtaining Accurate Ocean Surface Winds In Hurricane Conditions: A Dual Frequency Scatterometry Approach," IEEE TGARS, Vol 48 , No. 8, P 3101-3113, August 2010. Acknowledgement: The work reported here was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, and at the National Hurricane Center under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. We would like to thank the Indian Space Research Organization for providing the OceanSAT-2 scatterometer data that we used to determine tropical cyclone winds.

  4. Evaluation of the productivity decrease risk due to a future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan.

    PubMed

    Esteban, Miguel; Longarte-Galnares, Gorka

    2010-12-01

    A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya. The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085. PMID:20807379

  5. Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, H. Michael; Blakeslee, Richard; Conover, Helen; Hall, John; He, Yubin; Regner, Kathryn

    2009-01-01

    The Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decision-making for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery, radar, surface and airborne instrument data sets, model output parameters, lightning location observations, aircraft navigation data, soundings, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. RTMM is extremely valuable for optimizing individual Earth science airborne field experiments. Flight planners, scientists, and managers appreciate the contributions that RTMM makes to their flight projects. A broad spectrum of interdisciplinary scientists used RTMM during field campaigns including the hurricane-focused 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), 2007 NOAA-NASA Aerosonde Hurricane Noel flight, 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4), plus a soil moisture (SMAP-VEX) and two arctic research experiments (ARCTAS) in 2008. Improving and evolving RTMM is a continuous process. RTMM recently integrated the Waypoint Planning Tool, a Java-based application that enables aircraft mission scientists to easily develop a pre-mission flight plan through an interactive point-and-click interface. Individual flight legs are automatically calculated "on the fly". The resultant flight plan is then immediately posted to the Google Earth-based RTMM for interested scientists to view the planned flight track and subsequently compare it to the actual real time flight progress. We are planning additional capabilities to RTMM including collaborations with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

  6. The Aeroclipper, a new device to explore tropical convective systems and cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philippe, Duvel Jean

    The Aeroclipper is a new balloon device designed to perform relatively long flights (up to 30 days) in the surface layer (under 50 m) over remote ocean regions. The balloon carries a guide rope floating at the surface of the ocean. The Aeroclipper moves on quasi-Lagrangian trajectories, performing in situ measurements in the atmospheric surface layer and at the surface of the ocean. The Aeroclipper is able to measure low level dynamics and surface turbulent fluxes for several weeks over remote regions of the tropical oceans. Like superpressure balloons in the boundary layer, an Aeroclipper is attracted toward convective regions by the low-level wind convergence generated by the associated low surface pressure. Compared to Eulerian platforms (moored buoys) or to oceanographic ships, these balloons are thus expected to increase atmospheric boundary layer sampling in active convective systems. During the Validation of the Aeroclipper System under Convective Occurrences (VASCO) test experiment (Indian Ocean in January and February 2007), two Aeroclippers survived in tropical cyclone Dora, enduring wind speed larger than 40 ms-1 and giving continuous estimates of tangential and radial winds as a function of the distance from the eye during the convergence phase. The two Aeroclippers then stayed in the eye of Dora for more than a week and remained captured in the low-pressure center when Dora became an extra-tropical depression. Due to this success in mechanical design, and despite some deficiencies of the present system that require new developments, we think that such a device has a good potential for further use, especially for cyclone nowcasting. The scientific objectives of the Aeroclipper; its current design and instrumentation; some preliminary results of the VASCO test experiment; and future experiments will be presented.

  7. On the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds after Landfall in the New England Area.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, John; Demaria, Mark

    2001-02-01

    A version of the Kaplan and DeMaria empirical model for predicting the decay of tropical cyclone 1-min maximum sustained surface winds after landfall is developed for the New England region. The original model was developed from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) best-track wind estimates for storms that made landfall in the United States south of 37N from 1967 to 1993. In this note, a similar model is developed for U.S. storms north of 37N, which primarily made landfall in New York or Rhode Island and then moved across New England. Because of the less frequent occurrence of New England tropical cyclones, it was necessary to include cases back to 1938 to obtain a reasonable sample size. In addition, because of the faster translational speed and the fairly rapid extratropical transition of the higher-latitude cases, it was necessary to estimate the wind speeds at 2-h intervals after landfall, rather than every 6 h, as in the NHC best track. For the model development, the estimates of the maximum sustained surface winds of nine landfalling storms (seven hurricanes and two tropical storms) at 2-h intervals were determined by an analysis of all available surface data. The wind observations were adjusted to account for variations in anemometer heights, averaging times, and exposures.Results show that the winds in the northern model decayed more (less) rapidly than those of the southern model, when the winds just after landfall are greater (less) than 33 knots. It is hypothesized that this faster rate of decay is due to the higher terrain near the coast for the northern sample and to the more hostile environmental conditions (e.g., higher vertical wind shear). The slower decay rate when the winds fall below 33 knots in the northern model might be due to the availability of a baroclinic energy source as the storms undergo extratropical transition.

  8. Analysis of North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensify change using data mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jiang

    Tropical cyclones (TC), especially when their intensity reaches hurricane scale, can become a costly natural hazard. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is very difficult because of inadequate observations on TC structures, poor understanding of physical processes, coarse model resolution and inaccurate initial conditions, etc. This study aims to tackle two factors that account for the underperformance of current TC intensity forecasts: (1) inadequate observations of TC structures, and (2) deficient understanding of the underlying physical processes governing TC intensification. To tackle the problem of inadequate observations of TC structures, efforts have been made to extract vertical and horizontal structural parameters of latent heat release from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data products. A case study of Hurricane Isabel (2003) was conducted first to explore the feasibility of using the 3D TC structure information in predicting TC intensification. Afterwards, several structural parameters were extracted from 53 TRMM PR 2A25 observations on 25 North Atlantic TCs during the period of 1998 to 2003. A new generation of multi-correlation data mining algorithm (Apriori and its variations) was applied to find roles of the latent heat release structure in TC intensification. The results showed that the buildup of TC energy is indicated by the height of the convective tower, and the relative low latent heat release at the core area and around the outer band. Adverse conditions which prevent TC intensification include the following: (1) TC entering a higher latitude area where the underlying sea is relative cold, (2) TC moving too fast to absorb the thermal energy from the underlying sea, or (3) strong energy loss at the outer band. When adverse conditions and amicable conditions reached equilibrium status, tropical cyclone intensity would remain stable. The dataset from Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) covering the period of 1982-2003 and the Apriori-based association rule mining algorithm were used to study the associations of underlying geophysical characteristics with the intensity change of tropical cyclones. The data have been stratified into 6 TC categories from tropical depression to category 4 hurricanes based on their strength. The result showed that the persistence of intensity change in the past and the strength of vertical shear in the environment are the most prevalent factors for all of the 6 TC categories. Hyper-edge searching had found 3 sets of parameters which showed strong intramural binds. Most of the parameters used in SHIPS model have a consistent "I-W" relation over different TC categories, indicating a consistent function of those parameters in TC development. However, the "I-W" relations of the relative momentum flux and the meridional motion change from tropical storm stage to hurricane stage, indicating a change in the role of those two parameters in TC development. Because rapid intensification (RI) is a major source of errors when predicting hurricane intensity, the association rule mining algorithm was performed on RI versus non-RI tropical cyclone cases using the same SHIPS dataset. The results had been compared with those from the traditional statistical analysis conducted by Kaplan and DeMaria (2003). The rapid intensification rule with 5 RI conditions proposed by the traditional statistical analysis was found by the association rule mining in this study as well. However, further analysis showed that the 5 RI conditions can be replaced by another association rule using fewer conditions but with a higher RI probability (RIP). This means that the rule with all 5 constraints found by Kaplan and DeMaria is not optimal, and the association rule mining technique can find a rule with fewer constraints yet fits more RI cases. The further analysis with the highest RIPs over different numbers of conditions has demonstrated that the interactions among multiple factors are responsible for the RI process of TCs. However, the influence of factors saturates at certain numbers. This study has shown successful data mining examples in studying tropical cyclone intensification using association rules. The higher RI probability with fewer conditions found by association rule technique is significant. This work demonstrated that data mining techniques can be used as an efficient exploration method to generate hypotheses, and that statistical analysis should be performed to confirm the hypotheses, as is generally expected for data mining applications.

  9. Influence of Tropical Cyclones Period 1970 TO 2010 IN the Region of Bahia de Banderas, Nayarit-Jalisco Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernandez, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    This study evaluates the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) that made landfall in populated areas along the Pacific coast of Mexico, especially in the region of Bahia de Banderas. During the period of 1970-2010 and used a database of international natural disasters to identify impacts. Were more than 13 events during the reporting period, of which 10 are examined more precipitation accumulated and 6 that caused further damage to the affected population in these cases ranged from 5000 to more than 15 000 inhabitants. Strong winds and heavy rainfall in periods of one to three days were associated with property damage and loss of life. The results of the study indicate that excessive accumulations of rain and daily intensity are important factors connected with the occurrence of disasters in densely populated areas. Six of the first 10 Tropical Cyclone associated with major disasters occurred in conditions of El Niño and four neutral conditions. With the analysis of satellite images using GOES-10 in the IDV software maps were obtained in the coastal impacts of Banderas Bay and describes the main features of each meteorological phenomena. In which concludes that no tropical cyclone entered directly to the Banderas Bay region, but its effects were very relevant, taking into account the topography, land use change and the vulnerability of the region. Tropical Cyclones that have affected the region of Bay of Banderas

  10. Using Mixture Regression to Understand and Model Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Relation to the Environment and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yonekura, E.; Lin, N.; Wang, Y.; Fan, J.

    2014-12-01

    Representing the relationship between tropical cyclone intensity and the surrounding environment is key to projecting the way tropical cyclones change with the climate. However, capturing the complex relationship between tropical cyclone intensification, the surrounding environment, and storm characteristics may not be possible with simple linear regression models like SHIPS, especially for short forecast periods in risk models. Here, we move beyond simple linear modeling and apply methods that perform variable selection, determine if the data is a heterogeneous "mixture" of multiple features, and fit linear or nonlinear functions of predictors for a 6-hour forecast window. We also incorporate a new predictor, the Ventilation Index, which represents the surrounding environmental conditions in a way that is known to affect tropical cyclone intensity according to hurricane physics. The data used to construct the models comes from the IBTrACS WMO archive for TC-specific data and ERSST v3b and the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis for environmental variables from 1970-2010 in the North Atlantic. The two observed measures of intensity, the maximum sustained wind speed and minimum central pressure, are modeled jointly. First, we find that variable selection in both linear and nonlinear models does not significantly reduce the number of environmental predictors needed or improve the model R-squared. Second, mixture regression is applied to establish data groupings and their associated predictors. There is an increase in R-squared by 0.10 compared to the linear regression model that uses all possible variables as predictors. The number of environmental predictors decreases from 8 to 4 for wind intensification and to 2 for pressure intensification. When we further restrict the predictor pool to use only Ventilation Index to represent the environment, mixture modeling shows a 0.10 increase in R-squared. Then, allowing nonlinear relationships with predictors in a mixture model with Ventilation Index gives a further R-squared increase of 0.20. We show that mixture modeling is the best approach to create a climate-variant model for tropical cyclone intensity that can be used as part of a tropical cyclone risk model. The techniques may also be applied to other aspects of tropical cyclones, such as storm genesis and size.

  11. Formation and Quasi-Periodic Behavior of Outer Spiral Rainbands in a Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Q.; Wang, Y.

    2012-04-01

    The formation and quasi-periodic behavior of outer spiral rainbands in a tropical cyclone simulated in the cloud-resolving tropical cyclone model version 4 (TCM4) are analyzed. The outer spiral rainbands in the simulation are preferably initiated near the 60-km radius, or roughly about three times the radius of maximum wind (RMW). After initiation, they generally propagate radially outward with a mean speed of ~5 m s-1. They are reinitiated quasi-periodically with a period between 22 h and 26 h in the simulation. While the inner spiral rainbands, which form within a radius of about three times the RMW, are characterized by the convectively coupled vortex Rossby waves (VRWs), the formation of outer spiral rainbands, namely, rainbands formed outside a radius of about three times the RMW, is much more complicated. It is shown that outer spiral rainbands are triggered by the inner-rainband remnants immediately outside the rapid filamentation zone and inertial instability in the upper troposphere. The preferred radial location of initiation of outer spiral rainbands is understood as a balance between the suppression of deep convection by rapid filamentation and the favorable dynamical and thermodynamic conditions for initiation of deep convection. The quasi-periodic occurrence of outer spiral rainbands is found to be associated with the boundary layer recovery from the effect of convective downdrafts and the consumption of convective available potential energy (CAPE) by convection in the previous outer spiral rainbands. Specifically, once convection is initiated and organized in the form of outer spiral rainbands, it will produce strong downdrafts and consume CAPE. These effects weaken convection near its initiation location. As the rainband propagates outward further, the boundary layer air near the original location of convection initiation takes about 10 h to recover by extracting energy from the underlying ocean. Convection and thus new outer spiral rainbands will be initiated near a radius of about three times the RMW. This will be followed by a similar outward propagation and the subsequent boundary layer recovery, leading to a quasi-periodic occurrence of outer spiral rainbands. In response to the quasi-periodic appearance of outer spiral rainbands, the storm intensity experiences a similar quasi-periodic oscillation with its intensity or intensification rate starting to decrease after about 4 h of the initiation of an outer spiral rainband. The results provide an alternative explanation or one of the mechanisms that are responsible for the quasi-periodic (quasi-diurnal) variation in the intensity and in the area of outflow-layer cloud canopy of observed tropical cyclones.

  12. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance activity. This will allow (i) a direct comparison of future TC activity that could be expected for an active or inactive season in an altered climate regime, and (ii) a measure of the level of uncertainty and variability in TC activity resulting from different carbon emission scenarios.

  13. An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Titley, David W.

    2015-08-01

    In a changing climate, the impact of tropical cyclones on the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts will be affected both by how intense and how frequent these storms become. The observational record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to allow for accurate assessment of low-frequency variability in storm activity. In order to overcome the limitations of the short observational record, we downscale four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models to generate synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the Atlantic Basin that span the interval of A.D. 850-2005. Using these long-term synthetic tropical cyclone data sets, we investigate the relationship between power dissipation and ocean temperature metrics, as well as the relationship between basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone count statistics over the past millennium. Contrary to previous studies, we find only a very weak relationship between power dissipation and main development region sea surface temperature in the Atlantic Basin. Consistent with previous studies, we find that basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone counts are significantly correlated with one another, lending further support for the use of paleohurricane landfall records to infer long-term basin-wide tropical cyclone trends.

  14. Analysis of CAPE in Intensifying Tropical Cyclones Simulated by CM1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Marguerite; Frisius, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    The transition of a tropical storm to a full blown hurricane (Typhoon) during intensification can be a source of great debate among many well respected scientists. As a result there is a lack of a comprehensive understanding of intensification. The present study aims to lessen some of the confusion by addressing the role of convective available potential energy (CAPE) in cyclogenesis. Previous work by others fail to include this due to assumptions that allow the intensification to occur under different conditions. A series of sensitivity tests were conducted using an idealised set up in the cloud resolving non-hydrostatic model CM1. A base state provided by a Dunion sounding was used with the vortex being initialised using the Rotunno and Emanuel's scheme and the Morrison double-moment cloud microphysical scheme was adopted. All experiments employed a 2km grid spacing with 600 grid points in the horizontal and 500m grid spacing with 59 grid points in the vertical. Two sets of sensitivity tests were done where the distribution of CAPE was investigated. In the first group the base state temperature was perturbed such that the atmosphere cooled and warmed at 0.5K/km and 1K/km in the vertical direction. In the second group the value for the exchange coefficient for enthalpy was increased and decreased by a factor of 2 and 4 for both cases. Since we are only interested in the rate of intensification most results were taken at the time when the rate of intensification was the highest. In the temperature perturbation experiments warming the atmosphere creates less than ideal conditions for cyclogenesis which results in no hurricane developing when the air was warmed by 1K/km and a very weak tropical cyclone developing when the air was warmed by 0.5K/km. As a result of this there is very little CAPE present in both cases. In contrast, cooling the air provides better conditions for cyclogenesis. The amount of CAPE is much greater when the air was cooled by 0.5K/km but the final intensity of the cyclone is not. In fact the intensification of the cyclone under both cooling conditions are very similar. The results for the second experiment group are more distinct. Although the coefficient was halved and quartered, there is still a strong cyclone present but the amount of CAPE is less. The experiment with a reduction by factor of 4 exhibits very little CAPE whereas the one where it was reduced by a factor of 2 has some but still a rather small amount of CAPE. There is a greater amount of CAPE for when the coefficient is increased by a factor of 4. Additionally, the intensification rate is also much greater. The intensification rate appears to be sensitive to the presence of CAPE. These results suggest that CAPE is a vital quantity for tropical cyclone intensification.

  15. Tropical cyclone intensity estimation using temporal and image analysis of satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fetanat, G.; Homaifar, A.; Knapp, K.

    2012-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are becoming an increasing threat to life and property. Developing an automated technique to estimate TC intensity and to overcome the existing errors in estimation is still a challenge. The Dvorak technique (DT) is the state-of-the-art method that has been used over three decades for estimating the intensity of a tropical cyclone. The DT subjectively estimates TC intensity based on visible and infrared satellite images. In spite of wide usage of the DT for TC analysis, it has some limitations. The most important one is that the DT does not use the valuable historical data mainly because of the challenges on computing and human resources. This research is inspired by the availability of historical TC satellite data. We hypothesize that discovering unknown regularities and abnormalities that may exist in the large group of past observations could help human experts interpret TC intensity changes from various points of view. Our goal is to provide a data mining tool that increases the ability of human experts to analyze huge amount of historical data for TC intensity estimation. The proposed intensity estimation algorithm has two parts: temporal constraints and image analysis. Temporal information provides a priori estimates of storm intensity (in terms of wind speed) prior to using any satellite image analysis. Hurricane Satellite data (HURSAT-B1) includes best-track intensity are used as a training data. A case study using North Atlantic Hurricane Satellite data from 1988-2009 is considered. The temporal analysis uses the age of the cyclone, 6, 12 and 24 hours prior intensities as predictors of the expected intensity. The 10 closest analogs (determined by a K-nearest-neighbor algorithm) are averaged to estimate the intensity. The distribution of intensity estimation errors of the proposed technique shows that 50% of the estimates have a mean absolute error less than 4.4 knots, 75% are 6.3 knots and 90% are within 8 knots. Several validation tests were conducted to statistically justify the proposed algorithm using K-Fold Cross-Validation. The resulting average root mean squared error (RMSE) of our algorithm is approximately 4.6 knots. Overall, 47% improvement has been achieved compared to the DT. The current analysis has the ability to decrease the DT noise and has the potential to provide new temporal constraints on DT. The image analysis part of the proposed technique used the average and standard deviation of the brightness temperature of the selected rings around the center of the storm, as predictors of the current intensity of the storm. The image analysis used the age of the cyclone, current, 6, 12 and 24 hours prior images as predictors of the expected intensity as well. As like as temporal analysis, the intensity of the 10 closest analogs (determined by a K-nearest-neighbor algorithm) in training data are averaged to estimate the intensity. The result of K-Fol