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1

Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Electricity Sector in Germany and France  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a The topic of this chapter is climate change adaptation options for the electricity sector in Germany and France. The impacts\\u000a of weather and climate change on this sector are described first. Based on this, practical adaptation options are then specified\\u000a for the better use of opportunities and minimizing the preventable risks in the energy industry. Since the impacts and possible

Benno Rothstein; Sylvie Parey

2

An estimate of future climate change for western France using a statistical downscaling technique  

Microsoft Academic Search

A statistical downscaling procedure based on an analogue technique is used to determine projections for future climate change in western France. Three ocean and atmosphere coupled models are used as the starting point of the regionalization technique. Models' climatology and day to day variability are found to reproduce the broad main characteristics seen in the reanalyses. The response of the

B. Timbal; A. Dufour; B. McAvaney

2003-01-01

3

Quantifying 21st-century France climate change and related uncertainties  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We tackle here the question of past and future climate change at sub-regional or country scale with the example of France. We assess France climate evolution during the 20th and 21st century as simulated by an exhaustive range of global climate simulations. We first show that the large observed warming of the last 30 years can be simulated only if anthropogenic forcings are taken into account. We also suggest that human influence could have made a substantial contribution to the observed 20th century multi-decadal temperature fluctuations. We then show that France averaged annual mean temperature at the end of the 21st century is projected to be on the order of 4.5 K warmer than in the early 20th century under the radiative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Summer changes are greater than their winter counterpart (6 K versus 3.7 K). Near-future (2020-2049) changes are on the order of 2.1 K (with 2.6 K in summer and 1.8 K in winter). Model projections also suggest a substantial summer precipitation decrease (-0.6 mm/day), in particular over southern France, and a moderate winter increase, (0.3 mm/day), mostly over the northernmost part of France. Uncertainties about the amplitude of these precipitation changes remain large. We then quantify the various sources of uncertainty and study how their ranking varies with time. We also propose a physically-based metric approach to reduce model uncertainty and illustrate it with the case of summer temperature changes. Finally, timing and amplitude of France climate change in case of a global average 2-K warming are investigated. Aggressive mitigation pathways (such as RCP2.6) are absolutely required to avoid crossing or barely exceeding the 2-K global threshold. However, France climate change requiring adaptation measures is still to be expected even if we achieve to remain below the 2-K global target.

Terray, Laurent; Boé, Julien

2013-03-01

4

Holocene climatic changes in the Western Mediterranean, from south-east France to south-east Spain  

Microsoft Academic Search

Holocene climatic changes along coastal regions from south-east France to south-east Spain were studied using pollen ratios. Comparing modern pollen rain, vegetation and climate along selected transects from the Atlantic Ocean to the Mediterranean, we obtained threshold values of two different ratios corresponding to the different climatic conditions along the transects. These pollen ratios and threshold values were employed to

Guy Jalut; Augustin Esteban Amat; Louis Bonnet; Thierry Gauquelin; Michel Fontugne

2000-01-01

5

Climate change impact on renewable energy sources during the 21st century over France  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The impact of climate change on three types of green electricity production over France, wind, hydro and solar energies, is studied through the evolution of related climate variables during the 21st century. Climate projections of these variables, obtained from the IPCC model database, are downscaled to higher resolution grids (25 km for solar radiation and 50 km for precipitation) and a wind farm network. The statistical downscaling method used here is based on the matching of large and local scale cumulative density functions. Models are forced by three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, SRESA2, SRESA1B and SRESB1. For each of these scenarios, the downscaling outputs are combined using a Bayesian model merging approach. Results are shown for two periods, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100.

Michelangeli, Paul-Antoine; Kolasinski, Michel; Kallache, Malaak; Naveau, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu

2010-05-01

6

Climate change impact on the management of water resources in the Seine River basin, France  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

It is today commonly accepted that adaptation strategies will be needed to cope with the hydrological consequences of projected climate change. The main objective of the IWRM-Net Climaware project is to design adaptation strategies for various socio-economic sectors and evaluate their relevance at the European scale. Within the project, the Seine case study focuses on dam management. The Seine River basin at Paris (43800km²) shows major socio-economic stakes in France. Due to its important and growing demography, the number of industries depending on water resources or located on the river sides, and the developed agricultural sector, the consequences of droughts and floods may be dramatic. To mitigate the extreme hydrological events, a system of four large multi-purpose reservoirs was built in the upstream part of the basin between 1949 and 1990. The IPCC reports indicate modifications of the climate conditions in northern France in the future. An increase of mean temperature is very likely, and the rainfall patterns could be modified: the uncertainty on future trends is still high, but summer periods could experience lower quantities of rainfall. Anticipating these changes are crucial: will the present reservoirs system be adapted to these conditions? Here we propose to evaluate the capacity of the Seine River reservoirs to withstand future projected climate conditions using the current management rules. For this study a modeling chain was designed. We used two hydrological models: GR4J, a lumped model used as a benchmark, and TGR, a semi-distributed model. TGR was tuned to explicitly account for reservoir management rules. Seven climatic models forced by the moderate A1B IPCC scenario and downscaled using a weather-type method (DSCLIM, Pagé et al., 2009), were used. A quantile-quantile type method was applied to correct bias in climate simulations. A model to mimic the way reservoirs are managed was also developed. The evolution of low flows, high flows and annual flows were assessed under natural condition (i.e. without the inclusion of the reservoirs in the models). Then, the impact of reservoirs and their management were accounted for in the modeling chain. Results will be discussed relatively to future hydro-climatic conditions and current mitigation objectives within the basin. Reference: Pagé, C., L. Terray et J. Boé, 2009: dsclim: A software package to downscale climate scenarios at regional scale using a weather-typing based statistical methodology. Technical Report TR/CMGC/09/21, SUC au CERFACS, URA CERFACS/CNRS No1875, Toulouse, France. Link : http://www.cerfacs.fr/~page/dsclim/dsclim_doc-latest.pdf

Dorchies, David; Thirel, Guillaume; Chauveau, Mathilde; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Perrin, Charles; Dehay, Florine

2013-04-01

7

Using a stochastic hydrological model to study the sensitivity of flood frequency to climate change (France)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The great interest in climate change during the past 20 years has led to a quasi unanimous conclusion for scientists: the Earth's climate is changing (IPCC 2013). It is important to know if this global change could lead to an increase in extreme events in order to prevent hydrological risks. In this work, the analysis of the climate change impact on flood was studied by a chain formed by projections (provided by climate models under SRES scenarios) and a stochastic hydrological model. The National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture (Irstea) has developed an original method for flood frequency analysis applied on the whole French territory: the SHYREG method (Arnaud et al., 2008). It generates sequentially a lot of rainfall events at an hourly time step for which a rainfall-runoff transformation is performed. The stochastic rainfall generator has three parameters which are estimated by average, not by extreme, values of daily climatic characteristics. Few parameters enable to run the rainfall-runoff model. These parameters have been regionalized on the whole French territory in order to estimate rainfall/flood quantiles at the spatial resolution of 1 km². The rainfall model shows a good skill in reproducing extreme rainfall frequency (Carreau et al., 2013) and has been already used in a climate change context to detect trends in extreme rainfall (Cantet et al., 2011). (Boé at al., 2006) propose climate projections on France at a 8km horizontal spatial resolution with daily rainfall available for two periods: reference period (1981-2000) and the end of the 21th century (2081-2100) under three SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, A2). The parameters of the rainfall model can be easily estimated for the different periods and scenarios and so, the sensitivity of flood frequency to the climate change can be studied under some hypothesis. First, the performance of the climatic model to reproduce extreme rainfall has been tested throughout the SHYREG method. Then projections were used to estimate flood frequency in a possible future. In the first case, the rainfall-runoff relation is assumed to be stationary -ie- only rainfall parameters change between two periods. This configuration allows focusing only on the impact of a possible rainfall change on the flood frequency. Then different scenarios concerning the parametrisation of the rainfall-runoff model are proposed to underline the consequences of changes in the rainfall-runoff transformation on the flood frequency estimation in the future. Arnaud, P., et al.. : Regionalization of an hourly rainfall generating model over metropolitan France for flood hazard estimation. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2008, 53 (1), 34-4 Boé, J.; Terray, L.; Habets, F. & Martin, E. : A simple statistical-dynamical downscaling scheme based on weather types and conditional resampling, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union, 2006, 111, D23106 Carreau, J.; Neppel L. Neppel, L. P. & Cantet, P. : Extreme Rainfall Frequency Analysis in the South of France : Comparisons of Three Regional Methods, Accepted in Journal de la Société Française de Statistique, 2013 Cantet, P.; Bacro, J. & Arnaud, P. : Using a rainfall stochastic generator to detect trends in extreme rainfall, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2011, 25(3), 429-441

Cantet, Philippe; Arnaud, Patrick

2014-05-01

8

How climate change threats water resource: the case of the Thau coastal lagoon (Mediterranean Sea, France)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The latest reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change explained that the Mediterranean regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. These latest are expected to have strong impacts on the management of water resources and on regional economies. The aim of this paper is to discuss impacts of climate changes on the Thau case study in relation to the evolution of water balance, water uses and adaptation to climate change. The Thau coastal lagoon is located in the Mediterranean coast in south of France in the Languedoc-Roussillon Region. Economic activities are diverse from shellfish farming, fertilizers industries to agriculture and tourism. However, tourism and shellfish farming are of major importance for local economy. If tourism is mainly turned to the Sea coast, shellfishes grow within the lagoon and rely on water quality. Previous studies have demonstrated the link between the coastal lagoon water quality and inputs of freshwater from the catchment. Thus, changes in rainfalls, runoff and water balance would not only affect water uses but also water quality. Climate changes projections are presented following the implementation of 4 downscaled climatic models. Impacts on water balance are modelled with SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) for 2041-2070 compared to the 1971-2000 reference period. The decrease of precipitations and water balance will impact discharges and thus decrease the freshwater inputs to the coastal lagoon. A study of water uses conducted in interactions with stakeholders within the Thau area has permitted to assess both current and evolution of water uses. It has revealed local water resources are depleting while water demand is increasing and is planned to continue to increase in the really near future. To prevent water scarcity events, mainly due to the climate change context, the Regional authorities have connected the catchment to the Rhône river to import water. The conclusion of this study is while expected impacts of climate changes on the Thau system were expected to be linked to water balance depletion in the catchment, the main threats are now linked to the impact on water quality of the introduction of the Rhône river waters within the system. This study is conducted in the CLIMB EU-FP7 project (2010-2014).

La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Sellami, Haykel; Cirelli, Claudia

2014-05-01

9

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Flood Regime in France  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changes in river flows are associated with different types of uncertainties, due to an imperfect knowledge of both future climate and rainfall-runoff processes. Due to computational constraints, impact and adaptation studies unfortunately cannot always afford to perform a detailed analysis of all these uncertainties. In that case, the modelling efforts have to focus on the most relevant source of uncertainty in order to provide the best estimate of the overall uncertainty. As part of the national Explore2070 project, the present study thus aims at assessing the hierarchy of uncertainties in changes on river flow extremes at the scale of France. Amongst all possible sources of uncertainties, two are here considered: (1) the uncertainty in General Circulation Model (GCM) configuration, with 7 different models that adequately sample the range of changes as projected by the GCMs used in the IPCC AR4 over France, and (2) the uncertainty in hydrological model structure, with 2 quite different models: GR4J (Perrin et al., 2003), a lumped conceptual model, and Isba-Modcou (Habets et al., 2008), a suite of a land surface scheme and a distributed hydrogeological model. The hydrological models have been run at more than 1500 locations in France over the 1961-1990 baseline period with forcings from both the Safran near-surface atmospheric reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010) and the GCM control runs downscaled with a weather type method (Boé et al., 2006), and over the 2046-2065 period with forcings from all downscaled GCM runs under the A1B emissions scenario. Single station flood frequency analyses were performed on 405 locations with observed discharges. Using Hosking and Wallis heterogeneity measures homogeneous regions were defined. Regional flood frequency analysis has been performed. Changes in homogeneity and changes in regional growth curvehave been examined. The analysis has accounted for the performance of the two hydrological models to quantify the confidence in future flood regimes. Various high flow indices (annual maximum daily flow with return period of 10 and 20 years, the daily flow value exceeded 10% of the time) as well as seasonality indices have been computed for both periods. An analysis of variance has been performed for each river flow index and at all stations shared by the two hydrological models (around 500) in order to assess the two considered sources of uncertainties in index changes as well as their hierarchy. The results of this study will help to define the relevant hydrological scenarios to be used in the adaptation part of the Explore2070 project for deriving national-scale adaptation strategies. Boé et al. (2006) A simple statistical-dynamical downscaling scheme based on weather types and conditional resampling. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D23106. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006889 Habets et al. (2008) The SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological model applied over France. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D06113. doi: 10.1029/2007JDOO8548 Perrin et al. (2003) Improvment of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation. Journal of Hydrology, 279, 275-289. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00225-7 Vidal et al. (2010) Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 459-478.doi: 10.5194/hess-14-459-2010

Sauquet, E.; Vidal, J.; Perrin, C.; Bourgin, P.; Chauveau, M.; Chazot, S.

2012-12-01

10

Climate Change impacts in the Drôme department (southeastern France): the GICC-DECLIC Project (2010-2012)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The national DECLIC ("Drôme: Eau, CLimat Impacts liés aux Changements") project, coordinated at LTHE (Grenoble-France) has begun in beginning of 2010 and is financed by the national GICC-2 program. This project deals with the climatic variability and the interactions in the Drôme's low mountain range. The main goal is to initiate an operational partnership between academics (three research laboratories LTHE, PACTE and ESPACE) and the involved Territorial Agencies, to define potential climate changes and future adaptations. Analyses will concern especially the climatic variations observed during the last 50 years at the administrative scale (namely the "Département" in the French organization), and their significant impacts on the current and future water resources, i.e. pluviometric regimes, quality of the snow coverage, flow stream variations, availability of the resources. The express request from the local administrators concerns mainly the variations of plant productivity (forests and agriculture), and mainly those due to isolated or recurrent drought periods (productivity, biomass, phenology, use of water resources). DECLIC project also concerns interactions between climatic variations and departmental tourist activities, in connection with water resources (consumption and quality). The final objective is to write a « green paper » about adaptation strategies on climate change for policies. The whole study will lean at first on a diagnostic study of climatic time-series and to various environmental data. One step will also use regional modelling of the impact of the climate on water resources. Besides geostatistic modelling, another methodology will use a simplified physical model that gives the benefit to take into account explicitly the topography at fine scale.

Rome, Sandra; Bigot, Sylvain; Dubus, Nathalie; Anquetin, Sandrine

2010-05-01

11

The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now  

Microsoft Academic Search

In an analysis of the French episode of heat wave in 2003, this article highlights how heat wave dangers result from the intricate association of natural and social factors. Unusually high temperatures, as well as socioeconomic vulnerability, along with social attenuation of hazards, in a general context where the anthropogenic contribution to climate change is becoming more plausible, led to

Marc Poumadère; Claire Mays; Sophie Le Mer; Russell Blong

2005-01-01

12

Shoreline sandwaves along the Aquitanian Coast (France): influence of climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1. CONTEXT Climate change induced vulnerability is defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the combination of sensitivity to climatic variations, probability of adverse climate change, and adaptive capacity. As stated by the IPCC (Watson et al., 1997), the "coastal systems should be considered vulnerable to changes in climate". Within the French ANR VULSACO project (VULnerability of SAndy COast to climate change and anthropic pressure), the present day erosion tendencies as well as the potentially future erosion trends are investigated. In the present work, shoreline sandwaves are considered. These morphologic features are shoreline undulations with typical wavelengths of several kilometers (Ashton et al., 2001). They generally appear under high angle incidence waves (Ashton et al, 2001; Falques and Calvete, 2005). These types of rhythmic feature is found for instance along most of the Dutch coast (Falques, 2006). The French Aquitanian Coast is mainly composed of sandy beaches, along more than 230 km. This area is characterized meso-macrotidal semi-diurnal tides and exposed to energetic waves (Hsmean~1.5 m). Furthermore, this area is characterised by the presence of an outer crescentic bar and an inner bar exhibiting rather regularly spaced rip channel with a mean wavelength of 700 m and 400 m, respectively. These nearshore rhythmic patterns are likely to be mirrored at the shoreline. Here we present the shoreline stability of the French Aquitanian coast under present day wave climate. In addition, the influence of a change in the wave regime under climate change on the shoreline undulations is investigated. 2. DATA ANLYSIS The presence of shoreline sandwaves on the Aquitanian coast has never been investigated so far. Several sets of shoreline data have been used. One set was based on vegetation limits detected by remote sensing (data from OCA Aquitaine Coast Observatory , covering several decades). The other one was based on Digital Elevation Models and tidal model (Histolitt data, SHOM-IGN). Several approaches, including Fourier transformation, wavelet analysis and E.O.F. have been used to characterise shoreline sandwaves along the Aquitanian Coast. The data analysis shows the occurrence of shoreline undulations with typical wavelengths of 2, 4, 8, 10-15 and 30 km. 3. PRESENT DAY SHORELINE INSTABILITY The one-line modeling is a well known tool in coastal engineering. It is often used to predict changes of the coastline position. This approach, which is based on the computation of wave-driven alongshore sediment fluxes, is known to smooth the coastline irregularities. However it has been shown that high wave angle with respect to shore-normal can induce the development of shoreline instabilities. Falqués and Calvete (2005) extended the classic one-line formulation by performing a linear stability analysis. Using this method, they showed that not only the occurrence of high angle incidence wave instability depends on the wave angle but it also depends on the wave height and periods. This model, so-called 1d-morfo, also confirmed the existence of HAWI (High Angle Wave Instability). The 1d-morfo (Falques, 2006) model is applied to simulate the appearance of shoreline sandwaves along the Aquitanian coast. A typical winter (February 2008) profile is used (ECORS/SHOM 2008 campaign) and three tide levels are considered (Low/Mid/High tide). The local wave regime forcing has been analysed using a data clustering algorithm (Butel, 2002) applied on long time serie of wave data (GFS/NWW3). With this method, ten wave classes representative of the present wave climate have been obtained and introduced as wave input of the model. At mid-tide and high tide, the model exhibits some instability, with wavelength comprised between 400 and 1200 m and time scale of few days. This wavelengths falls in the range of the crescentic bar wavelengths, rather than the shoreline wavelengths obtained with the shoreline analysis. 4. SENSITIVITY STUDY REGARDING CLIMATE CHANGE The model and literature review on clima

Idier, D.; Falquès, A.; Mallet, C.; Castelle, B.; Parisot, J. P.; Le Cozannet, G.; Delvallée, E.

2009-04-01

13

Continental climatic changes in Normandy (France) between 3.3 and 2.3 Myr B.P  

Microsoft Academic Search

Pollen analysis of the La Londe sequence indicates that several environmental and climatic changes occurred during the interval between 3.3 and 2.3 Myr. The use of two pollen indices, the Climate Severity Index (CSI) and the Continental Biomass Index (CBI) permits the characterization of these changes. They illustrate significant climatic variations throughout the considered time interval. At the base of

Denis-Didier Rousseau; Igor Parra; Pierre Cour; Martine Clet

1995-01-01

14

Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This website takes you to a collection of short video clips on a variety of climate change issues and lesson plans for K-12. Videos range from Arctic to Antarctic ice, biomes, capturing carbon, to the greenhouse effect and many other topics that deal with climate and climate change. Free registration is required.

15

Climate Change  

MedlinePLUS

Weather can be hot or cold, dry or wet, calm or stormy, clear or cloudy. Climate is the average weather in a place over a long period of time. Changes in climate may be due to natural forces or from human activities. ...

16

Can metric-based approaches really improve multi-model climate projections? A perfect model framework applied to summer temperature change in France.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ensemble approaches for climate change projections have become ubiquitous. Because of large model-to-model variations and, generally, lack of rationale for the choice of a particular climate model against others, it is widely accepted that future climate change and its impacts should not be estimated based on a single climate model. Generally, as a default approach, the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) is considered to provide the best estimate of climate change signals. The MMEM approach is based on the implicit hypothesis that all the models provide equally credible projections of future climate change. This hypothesis is unlikely to be true and ideally one would want to give more weight to more realistic models. A major issue with this alternative approach lies in the assessment of the relative credibility of future climate projections from different climate models, as they can only be evaluated against present-day observations: which present-day metric(s) should be used to decide which models are "good" and which models are "bad" in the future climate? Once a supposedly informative metric has been found, other issues arise. What is the best statistical method to combine multiple models results taking into account their relative credibility measured by a given metric? How to be sure in the end that the metric-based estimate of future climate change is not in fact less realistic than the MMEM? It is impossible to provide strict answers to those questions in the climate change context. Yet, in this presentation, we propose a methodological approach based on a perfect model framework that could bring some useful elements of answer to the questions previously mentioned. The basic idea is to take a random climate model in the ensemble and treat it as if it were the truth (results of this model, in both past and future climate, are called "synthetic observations"). Then, all the other members from the multi-model ensemble are used to derive thanks to a metric-based approach a posterior estimate of climate change, based on the synthetic observation of the metric. Finally, it is possible to compare the posterior estimate to the synthetic observation of future climate change to evaluate the skill of the method. The main objective of this presentation is to describe and apply this perfect model framework to test different methodological issues associated with non-uniform model weighting and similar metric-based approaches. The methodology presented is general, but will be applied to the specific case of summer temperature change in France, for which previous works have suggested potentially useful metrics associated with soil-atmosphere and cloud-temperature interactions. The relative performances of different simple statistical approaches to combine multiple model results based on metrics will be tested. The impact of ensemble size, observational errors, internal variability, and model similarity will be characterized. The potential improvements associated with metric-based approaches compared to the MMEM is terms of errors and uncertainties will be quantified.

Boé, Julien; Terray, Laurent

2014-05-01

17

Biodiversity Requires Adaptations Under a Changing Climate in Northwest Europe: Planning and Coastal Wildlife, the Example of Normandy in France  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a The Interreg IIIB BRANCH project evaluated potential impacts of climate change on coastal wildlife in Northwest Europe and\\u000a aimed at identifying planning strategies in cooperation with stakeholders.A specific technical and methodological effort focused\\u000a on elaborating a GIS as a support for prospective work. This paper deals with the example of the French coastal case study\\u000a sites in Normandy:\\u000a \\u000a \\u000a \\u000a 1. \\u000a \\u000a \\u000a Several

Isabelle Rauss; Pascal Hacquebart; Catherine Zambettakis; Emmanuel Caillot; Emmanuel De Saint Léger; Franck Bruchon

18

Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This new report from the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the Marine Conservation Biology Institute argues that rising temperatures have impacted the world's oceans to a far greater extent than previously acknowledged. Addressing topics such as sea-level rise, ocean circulation, coral reefs, sea birds and invertebrates, as well as the increasing threats to Salmon, the report predicts a dangerous chain reaction in marine ecosystems if global warming continues unabated. On the positive side, it also argues that decisive actions now to reduce pollution can slow the warming and preserve the world's oceans. Accessible from the WWF Climate Change page, the full text of the report is available in .pdf, Word 6.0, and HTML versions. A summary is also provided.

19

Mapping urban climate zones and quantifying climate behaviors--an application on Toulouse urban area (France).  

PubMed

Facing the concern of the population to its environment and to climatic change, city planners are now considering the urban climate in their choices of planning. The use of climatic maps, such Urban Climate Zone?UCZ, is adapted for this kind of application. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the UCZ classification, integrated in the World Meteorological Organization guidelines, first can be automatically determined for sample areas and second is meaningful according to climatic variables. The analysis presented is applied on Toulouse urban area (France). Results show first that UCZ differentiate according to air and surface temperature. It has been possible to determine the membership of sample areas to an UCZ using landscape descriptors automatically computed with GIS and remote sensed data. It also emphasizes that climate behavior and magnitude of UCZ may vary from winter to summer. Finally we discuss the influence of climate data and scale of observation on UCZ mapping and climate characterization. PMID:21269746

Houet, Thomas; Pigeon, Grégoire

2011-01-01

20

Geochemical risk assessment of a case study of climate change adaptation policy: the managed realignment of an island in the Gironde Estuary (SW France)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

During the last millennium, poldering had consisted to reclaim land from the sea by pumping and creating dike to develop, for example, agricultural lands (e.g. tidal marshes, estuarine island). During 1980's, gain land from the sea stopped in Europe because of the concern of rising sea level and for better controlling flood events. This study aims at evaluating the impact of an accidental realignment due to a dam-break on the "Ile Nouvelle" in the Gironde Estuary (France) during the "Xynthia" storm (27-28 February 2010). After this accident, the General Council of Gironde and the national office for coastal territory preservation ("Conservatoire du Littoral"), which own this island, have adopted a new policy of managed realignment allowing soil submersion by estuarine water during each high tide in order to promote rehabilitation of a wetland ecosystem. This management policy has resulted in the re-inundation of formerly agricultural embanked soils. The regular tidal re-inundation of formerly agricultural embanked soils has induced strong biological and morphological changes (mechanical erosion, siltation). Based on 50 soils samples, spatial distribution of priority metal contaminants (Ni, Cr, Zn, Cu, As, Cd, Pb and Hg) was conducted using GIS (Arcview®). Metal concentrations were compared to local geochemical background measured at the bottom of a sediment core in the Gironde Estuary. Only a moderate Cd enrichment was observed (~2 to 7 times) and attributed to former deliberate submersion of vineyard soils on the island to fight off the damage caused by Phylloxera. Leaching experiments simulating episodic immersion during winter (salinity 0) and summer (salinity 12) were performed for investigating metal reactivity during soil suspension. Part of Cu and As were released from the soils at whatever salinity, whereas Cd release occurred only for salinity 12. Such desorption processes present potential geochemical risk to the Gironde Estuary. In contrast, during winter submersion events the studied soils would act as Cd sinks, adsorption being the dominating process. Coupling Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and 2 multi-parameters probes (OBS and SMATCH) during 2 spring-tide cycles allowed estimating residual metal fluxes, suggesting that under these conditions the Ile Nouvelle acts as a metal sink receiving ~5 kg of Cd, 440 kg of Cu et 480 kg of As. A bathymetry mapping of the corridor (mechanical erosion of the de-poldering area) was used to estimate the annual sedimentary and metals fluxes exported due to its erosion. Annual fluxes related to corridor erosion, compared to fluxes into the Gironde Estuary are significant for Cu and As. With climate change adaptation policies, managed realignment is becoming more common in the future. Consequently, it will be necessary before this management policy to assess the geochemical risk of the re-inundation of formerly embanked soils.

Ivanovsky, Anastasia; Coynel, Alexandra; Kessaci, Kahina; Kervella, Stéphane; Curti, Cécile; Sottolichio, Aldo; Blanc, Gérard

2014-05-01

21

Geopolitics of Climate Change.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This report analyzes the consequences of climate change and global warming for international politics in general and international security in particular. The report focuses on whether and in what way climate change may alter the conditions of internation...

P. Halden

2007-01-01

22

Fiddling with climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Composer and string musician, turned award-winning environmentalist, Aubrey Meyer tells Nature Climate Change why he is campaigning for countries to adopt his 'contraction and convergence' model of global development to avoid dangerous climate change.

2012-01-01

23

Climate Change and Biodiverstiy  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site describes climate change due to human activities and natural factors; future scenarios due to global warming; and how climate change will impact ecosystems and biodiversity. It includes information on political activity such as avoidance, mitigation and adaptation as a response to climate change. Current projects of the United Nations Environment Programme - World Conservation Monitoring Centre( UNEP-WCMC) involving involving climate change migration and adaptation and impact on the ecosystem services.

24

Abrupt Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts

R. B. Alley; J. Marotzke; W. D. Nordhaus; J. T. Overpeck; D. M. Peteet; R. A. Pielke Jr; R. T. Pierrehumbert; P. B. Rhines; T. F. Stocker; L. D. Talley; J. M. Wallace

2003-01-01

25

Global Climate Change Exploratorium  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site, funded by NSF, is the home page for the Global Climate Change research explorer. Multicolor tabs at the top of the page link to further information and visualizations (graphs, charts, pictures, etc.) for climate change resources in each of the Earth's spheres, including: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and global effects of climate change.

Exploratorium, The

26

Climate change and conflict  

Microsoft Academic Search

The prospect of human-induced climate change encourages drastic neomalthusian scenarios. A number of claims about the conflict-inducing effects of climate change have surfaced in the public debate in recent years. Climate change has so many potential consequences for the physical environment that we could expect a large number of possible paths to conflict. However, the causal chains suggested in the

Ragnhild Nordås; Nils Petter Gleditsch

2007-01-01

27

The Changing Climate.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Discusses the global change of climate. Presents the trend of climate change with graphs. Describes mathematical climate models including expressions for the interacting components of the ocean-atmosphere system and equations representing the basic physical laws governing their behavior. Provides three possible responses on the change. (YP)

Schneider, Stephen H.

1989-01-01

28

Climate Change Collection (CCC)  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Climate Change Collection (CCC) provides access to high quality, digital materials relating to natural and human induced climate change and variability, including scientific, economic and policy issues of climate change. The collection focuses on background resources and learning activities that communicate the principles that underlie climate change and variability, including the differences and links between weather and climate; the basics of the climate system including the greenhouse effect and energy balance; climatic processes that occur at varying time scales, including orbital cycles and forcing; how scientific research is conducted relative to measuring change and variability; and how human activities, including the combustion of fossil fuels and changes of land cover, impact the climate system. The resources have been reviewed for scientific accuracy and currency, and annotated with comments and suggestions relating to their potential value to Earth system science teachers and their students, particularly at the middle school level.

29

Climate change 2007 - mitigation of climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This volume of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art and worldwide overview of scientific knowledge related to the mitigation of climate change. It includes a detailed assessment of costs and potentials of mitigation technologies and practices, implementation barriers, and policy options for the sectors: energy supply, transport, buildings, industry,

B. Metz; O. Davidson; P. Bosch; R. Dave; L. Meyer

2007-01-01

30

Is Climate Change Happening?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

For this lesson, the guiding Concept Question is: What is climate change and how does climate relate to greenhouse gas concentrations over time? This activity is the second lesson in a nine-lesson module 'Visualizing and Understanding the Science of Climate Change' produced by the International Year of Chemistry project (2011).

Science, King'S C.

31

IISDnet: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) provides this site to present its knowledge base for climate change and adaptation. The knowledge base includes links to global projects on climate change, policy documents and research reports. The e-newsletter, Climate Canada, is accessible from this site as well.

32

Global Climatic Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed.

Richard A. Houghton; George M. Woodwell

1989-01-01

33

Climate change portal established  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The World Bank has developed a Climate Change Knowledge Portal as a kind of “onestop shop” for climate-related information, data, and tools. The portal provides access to global, regional, and national data and reports with an aim to providing a resource for learning about climate information and increasing knowledge on climate change—related actions. For more information, see http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/.

Showstack, Randy

2011-12-01

34

Global Climate Change.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)

Hall, Dorothy K.

1989-01-01

35

Responding to Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This is the ninth and final lesson in a series of lessons about climate change. This lesson focuses on the various activities that humans can do to mitigate the effects of climate change. This includes information on current and predicted CO2 emission scenarios across the globe, alternative energy sources, and how people are currently responding to climate change. Importantly, this lesson is motivating in showing students that they can make a difference.

Science, King'S C.

36

Climate Change Policy  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Experts Jason Shogren and Michael Toman wrote this discussion paper (00-22) on the economics of climate change policy, recently posted on the Resources for the Future (RFF) Website. The paper (.pdf format) examines the risks of climate change, the benefits of protection from climate change, and the costs of alternative protection policies. Also included is a summary of key policy lessons and knowledge gaps.

37

climate change, economics of  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate-change economics attends to the various threats posed by global climate change by offering theoretical and empirical insights relevant to the design of policies to reduce, avoid, or adapt to such change. This economic analysis has yielded new estimates of mitigation benefits, improved assessments of policy costs in the presence of various market distortions or imperfections, better tools for making

Lawrence H. Goulder; William A. Pizer

38

Past and future changes in water and carbon fluxes in temperate managed Pine forests from Southern France : attribution to climate, management and biophysical drivers (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests. The managed Pine forests in south-western Europe are submitted to increased soil preparation, fertilisation, drainage, thinning, clearcutting, whole tree - harvesting and rotation shortening and therefore provide a good example of such management changes. For the last 15 years, these forests were hit by a series of extreme climate events: two unprecedented storms in 1999 and 2009, severe soil droughts in 2002, 2005 and 2006 and heatwaves in 2003 and 2005. At flux tower sites located in a young stand following clearcut and mature stands respectively, the half-hourly fluxes of CO2, H2O vapour and energy as well as vegetation and soil carbon and water contents have been monitored during this period. Using data collected from flux tower sites and forest and soil inventories together with a process based model of forest growth, GO+, and geographic information, we analysed the impact of these events on the time series of forest canopy exchanges of water and CO2 and its interaction with management. The Bowen ratio of the forest was strongly enhanced and evapotranspiration decreased leading to a dramatic increase in water runoff and peak flows from the watersheds damaged by windstorms. Clearcutting following wind storms reversed the ecosystem from a net sink into a source of C-CO2 and that was not offset ten years later. Soil drought impacted mature forests through stomatal closure and leaf shedding, making their annual carbon balance almost neutral. Tree growth was however not affected to the same extent. Drought affected also dramatically the net carbon and water balances of young forest stands. However, at this stage, the effects of successive management operations (ploughing, vegetation burial, thinning) overtook climate impacts. Independent of stand age, the canopy photosynthesis was more sensitive to climate and management than the ecosystem respiration. A direct projection of these data allowed to assess the impact of the successive storms and droughts on the regional CO2, heat and water vapour fluxes at the sub-regional scale. The GO+ model applications to the prediction and analysis of climate scenarios impacts on southwestern European forests allowed to attributing the role of management alternatives, precipitation regime, CO2 concentration and atmospheric humidity in forest-atmosphere exchanges at larger spatial and temporal scales. Frequency of soil preparation operations and vegetation management at the juvenile stage and climate and rotation duration at the adult phase were the major drivers of the carbon and water balances, respectively. The model predicts that a drier and warmer climate will reduce productivity and deplete soil carbon stocks in forest from Southwestern Europe within decades, such effects being amplified by intensive management alternatives.

Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.

2013-12-01

39

Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are likely to remain the same until the 2040's, then followed by a second step of warming and drying trend. During the last ten years, local farmers have been experiencing difficulties to combine challenges from an increasing competition in markets and from hotter and drier conditions. Helped by public subsidies, almost one-third of the vineyard was pulled out during that period. Up until the 2040's, with similar conditions, the local viticultural system should continue its transformation, favouring dynamic, proactive and enterprising farmers. Thus the composition of the farming community might change gradually, and count in the 2040's a majority of producers with a higher individual adaptive capacity than now. The timing and intensity of near-future climate change as measured by the climate model, combined to regional economic change, might thus be an asset to prepare and facilitate adaptation in the longer term.

Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

2014-05-01

40

Climate change and mitigation.  

PubMed

Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session "Climate Change and Mitigation" the speakers offered four different views on coal and CO2: the basis for life, but also a major hazard with impact on Earth's climate. A common denominator in the presentations was that more than ever science and technology is required. We need not only understand the mechanisms for climate change and climate variability, we also need to identify means to remedy the anthropogenic influence on Earth's climate. PMID:20873680

Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

2010-01-01

41

Climate change 2007 - mitigation of climate change  

SciTech Connect

This volume of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art and worldwide overview of scientific knowledge related to the mitigation of climate change. It includes a detailed assessment of costs and potentials of mitigation technologies and practices, implementation barriers, and policy options for the sectors: energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management. It links sustainable development policies with climate change practices. This volume will again be the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change. Contents: Foreword; Preface; Summary for policymakers; Technical Summary; 1. Introduction; 2. Framing issues; 3. Issues related to mitigation in the long term context; 4. Energy supply; 5. Transport and its infrastructure; 6. Residential and commercial buildings; 7. Industry; 8. Agriculture; 9. Forestry; 10. Waste management; 11. Mitigation from a cross sectoral perspective; 12. Sustainable development and mitigation; 13. Policies, instruments and co-operative agreements. 300 figs., 50 tabs., 3 annexes.

Metz, B.; Davidson, O.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Meyer, L. (eds.)

2007-07-01

42

Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)  

Microsoft Academic Search

Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious

S. Newton

2009-01-01

43

Learning and climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Learning – i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty – plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations

Brian C. Oneill; Paul Crutzen; Arnulf Grübler; Minh Ha-Duong; Klaus Keller; Charles Kolstad; Jonathan Koomey; Andreas Lange; Michael Obersteiner; Michael Oppenheimer; William Pepper; Warren Sanderson; Michael Schlesinger; Nicolas Treich; Alistair Ulph; Mort Webster; Chris Wilson

2006-01-01

44

Coastal Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

As climate changes, dynamic coastal regions are experiencing a wide range of impacts. Sea levels, ocean acidification, sea surface temperatures, ocean heat, and ocean circulation have all been changing in ways unseen for thousands of years. Arctic sea ice melted significantly more during summers in the last 30 years, and storms are intensifying. Coastal ecosystems stand to be damaged, and coasts will likely erode from rising sea levels, intensified storm surges, and flooding that climate change may amplify. Coastal communities will need to prepare adaptation strategies to cope, and many who live or work in coastal regions are wondering what climate change might mean for them. This module provides an overview of the impacts coastal regions are experiencing and may continue to experience as a result of Earth's changing climate. A video series within the module demonstrates effective strategies for communicating climate science.

2011-01-01

45

Climate change and skin.  

PubMed

Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many dermatoses. PMID:23407083

Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

2013-02-01

46

Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

Newton, S.

2009-12-01

47

Climate Change: An Activity.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Presents a segment of the Geoscience Education booklet, Climate Change, that contains information and activities that enable students to gain a better appreciation of the possible effects human activity has on the Earth's climate. Describes the Terrace Temperatures activity that leads students through an investigation using foraminifera data to…

Lewis, Garry

1995-01-01

48

Climate Change and the Oceans  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This activity covers the role that the oceans may play in climate change and how climate change may affect the oceans. It is lesson 8 in a nine-lesson module Visualizing and Understanding the Science of Climate Change.

Science, The K.

49

Climate Change: Basic Information  

MedlinePLUS

... and ongoing rise in global average temperature near Earth's surface. It is caused mostly by increasing concentrations ... decades or longer. Climate change is happening Our Earth is warming. Earth's average temperature has risen by ...

50

Climate change and inuits  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Inuit Circumpolar Conference will seek a declaration from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights that emissions of greenhouse gases, which the conference says, are destroying the Inuit way of life, are a violation of human rights, conference chair Sheila Watt-Cloutier announced on 15 December.Her announcement comes shortly after the mid-November release of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, a scientific study by an international team of 300 scientists. That assessment noted, “The Arctic is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on Earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have already begun. Changes in Arctic climate will also affect the rest of the world through increased global warming and rising sea levels.”

Showstack, Randy

51

Climate Change and Tennessee.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The earth's climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The heat-trap...

1999-01-01

52

Climate Change and Kentucky.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The earth's climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The heat-trap...

1998-01-01

53

Global climate change  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases.

Levine, Joel S.

1991-01-01

54

Global Climatic Change.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

1989-01-01

55

Global climatic change  

SciTech Connect

This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

1989-04-01

56

Current Climate Variability & Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and climate change. The next section guides students through the exploration of temporal changes in global temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Students discover that there has been global warming over the past several decades, and the subsequent section allows them to consider solar radiation and greenhouse gases as possible causes of this warming. Students then zoom in on different latitudinal zones to examine changes in temperature for each zone and hypothesize about why one zone may have warmed more than others. The final section, prior to the answering of the essential questions, is an examination of the following effects of the current change in temperatures: loss of sea ice; rise of sea level; loss of permafrost loss; and moistening of the atmosphere. The lab addresses 14 climate-literacy concepts and all seven climate-literacy principles through data and images that are mainly NASA products. It focuses on the satellite era of climate data; therefore, 1979 is the typical starting year for most datasets used by students. Additionally, all time-series analysis end with the latest year with full-year data availability; thus, the climate variability and trends truly are 'current.'

Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

2013-12-01

57

Avoiding dangerous climate change  

SciTech Connect

In 2005 the UK Government hosted the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference to take an in-depth look at the scientific issues associated with climate change. This volume presents the most recent findings from the leading international scientists that attended the conference. The topics addressed include critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, socioeconomic costs and benefits of emissions pathways, and technological options for meeting different stabilisation levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Contents are: Foreword from Prime Minister Tony Blair; Introduction from Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC; followed by 41 papers arranged in seven sections entitled: Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds; General Perspectives on Dangerous Impacts; Key Vulnerabilities for Ecosystems and Biodiversity; Socio-Economic Effects; Regional Perspectives; Emission Pathways; and Technological Options. Four papers have been abstracted separately for the Coal Abstracts database.

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Wolfgang Cramer; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; Tom Wigley; Gary Yohe (eds.)

2006-02-15

58

Insects and climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this article the author describes some of the significant late glacial and Holocene changes that occurred in the Rocky Mountains, including the regional extirpation of certain beetle species. The fossil data presented here summarize what is known about regional insect responses to climate change in terms of species stability and geographic distribution. To minimize potential problems of species interactions

Scott A. Elias

1991-01-01

59

Debating Climate Change  

SciTech Connect

Debating Climate Change explores, both theoretically and empirically, how people argue about climate change and link to each other through various elements in their arguments. As science is a central issue in the debate, the arguments of scientists and the interpretations and responses of non-scientists are important aspects of the analysis. The book first assesses current thinking about the climate change debate and current participants in the debates surrounding the issue, as well as a brief history of various groups’ involvements. Chapters 2 and 3 distill and organize various ways of framing the climate change issue. Beginning in Chapter 4, a modified classical analysis of the elements carried in an argument is used to identify areas and degrees of disagreement and agreement. One hundred documents, drawn from a wide spectrum of sources, map the topic and debate space of the climate change issue. Five elements of each argument are distilled: the authority of the writer, the evidence presented, the formulation of the argument, the worldview presented, and the actions proposed. Then a social network analysis identifies elements of the arguments that point to potential agreements. Finally, the book suggests mechanisms by which participants in the debate can build more general agreements on elements of existing agreement.

Malone, Elizabeth L.

2009-11-01

60

Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28?° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observations of climate change, providing maps of the changing shape of climatic temperature distributions across Europe since 1950. The provision of such information from observations is valuable to support decisions designed to be robust in today’s climate, while also providing data against which climate forecasting methods can be judged and interpreted. The general statement that the hottest summer days are warming faster than the coolest is made decision relevant by exposing how the regions of greatest warming are quantile and threshold dependent. In a band from Northern France to Denmark, where the response is greatest, the hottest days in the temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2?° C, over four times the global mean change over the same period. In winter the coldest nights are warming fastest, particularly in Scandinavia.

Stainforth, David A.; Chapman, Sandra C.; Watkins, Nicholas W.

2013-09-01

61

Climate change and disaster management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A

Geoff O'Brien; Phil O'Keefe; Joanne Rose; Ben Wisner

2006-01-01

62

Investigating Climate Change Evidence  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This activity uses the jigsaw method to encourage students, in groups, to become experts on different types of evidence as a means of understanding climate change. Each group focuses on a topic, highlights at least one data set within that topic, and researches the data collection process along with the potential consequences of the evidence. Students are asked to critique the evidence they investigate, using a prepared checklist, and to share the results of their research with their classmates. Finally, students evaluate the evidence behind a skepticÃÂs claim, and discuss the knowns and unknowns about climate change.

Harris, Cornelia

2012-02-24

63

Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Global Climate Change is one of the Exploring the Environment series of online modules. Emphasizing an integrated approach to environmental earth science through problem-based learning, this module asks students to predict how increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is changing the climate, and the possible effects this may have on Kansas wheat crops. Students access remote sensing data via links to both current and historical data and work through a sequence of hyperlinked background resources to investigate this problem. The site also offers a glossary, teacher resources, and a general description of the problem-based learning model.

2000-01-01

64

Climate change and plant diseases  

Microsoft Academic Search

Human activities are altering greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and causing global climate change. In the near future, there will certainly be changes in the Brazilian phytosanitary scenario attributed to global climate change. The impacts of climate change can be positive, negative or neutral, since these changes can decrease, increase or have no impact on diseases, depending on each

Raquel Ghini; Emília Hamada; Wagner Bettiol

2008-01-01

65

Climate Variability, Climate Change and Land Degradation  

Microsoft Academic Search

Effective response by government and individuals to the risk of land degradation requires an understanding of regional climate\\u000a variations and the impacts of climate and management on condition and productivity of land and vegetation resources. Analysis\\u000a of past land degradation and climate variability provides some understanding of vulnerability to current and future climate\\u000a changes and the information needs for more

Beverley Henry; Greg McKeon; Jozef Syktus; John Carter; Ken Day; David Rayner

66

Climate Change and Extinction  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

A senior researcher discusses extinction due to global warming in this two-minute sound segment. He says that as climate warms, species will probably move upslope and towards the poles but in many cases, that may put species that are found on mountain tops at risk. Species with small ranges or lowland species that may not be able to get to mountain slopes and find equitable climate will die out. His study suggests that as many as one million species of plants and animals worldwide could be facing extinction as a result of climate change. This site is from an archive of a daily radio program called Pulse of the Planet, which provides its listeners with a portrait of Planet Earth, tracking the rhythms of nature, culture and science worldwide and blending interviews and extraordinary natural sound. The site also provides a written transcript of the broadcast.

2004-07-12

67

Dialogue on Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This is a summary of a 2 day seminar on the topic "Dialogue on Global Climate Change." The sessions on October 1 included a scientific overview of global climate change, a discussion on religious perspectives on global climate change, and consideration of impacts and equity. The sessions on October 2 focused on policy considerations and the Kyoto Convention on Climate Change. Panelists discussed economic challenges in responding to climate change, reviewed the Kyoto convention and its political prospects, and examined the roles of science, religion, values, and economics in crafting public policy on climate change.

;

2007-06-28

68

Weather, Climate, Climate Change and Actions  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This e-book contains the basics of weather and climate, climate change, and basic actions one can do to combat climate change. Included are embedded videos, slideshows, readings, and graphics. Discussion questions follow each section or chapter. This resource allows one to learn and/or use in a variety of ways integrating online resources that extend the learning, specifically flash animations, online labs, videos, curriculum, and readings. An iPad version is also available.

2012-01-01

69

Smithsonian climate change exhibits  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Two new museum exhibits, ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely'' and ``Atmosphere: Change is in the Air'' opened 15 April at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C., in partnership with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. In ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely,'' anecdotes from indigenous polar people reveal how climate changes have affected life within the last 50 years. For example, as permafrost melts and sea ice shrinks, plant distributions and animal migration patterns are changing, severely affecting culture.

Kumar, Mohi

2006-05-01

70

Teaching Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

O'Donoghue, A.

2011-09-01

71

Perception of climate change.  

PubMed

"Climate dice," describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3?) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change. PMID:22869707

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

2012-09-11

72

Climate change? When? Where?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Regional Australian students were surveyed to explore their understanding and knowledge of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion\\u000a and climate change. Results were compared with a parallel study undertaken in 1991 in a regional UK city.\\u000a \\u000a \\u000a The comparison was conducted to investigate whether more awareness and understanding of these issues is demonstrated by students\\u000a as a result of over 16 years’

Helen Boon

2009-01-01

73

Implications of abrupt climate change.  

PubMed Central

Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic.

Alley, Richard B.

2004-01-01

74

Climate change hastens population extinctions  

PubMed Central

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of many species. Predictions of climate-induced population extinctions are supported by geographic range shifts that correspond to climatic warming, but few extinctions have been linked mechanistically to climate change. Here we show that extinctions of two populations of a checkerspot butterfly were hastened by increasing variability in precipitation, a phenomenon predicted by global climate models. We model checkerspot populations to show that changes in precipitation amplified population fluctuations, leading to rapid extinctions. As populations of checkerspots and other species become further isolated by habitat loss, climate change is likely to cause more extinctions, threatening both species diversity and critical ecosystem services.

McLaughlin, John F.; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Boggs, Carol L.; Ehrlich, Paul R.

2002-01-01

75

Climate Change and Global Citizenship  

Microsoft Academic Search

The international climate change regime has failed. Even the most optimistic assessment of action to limit greenhouse pollution in the coming few decades will not prevent calamitous changes in Earth's climate. Arguments for international—that is, interstate—justice that have permeated international negotiations on climate change have been insufficient in fostering robust action by states. Indeed, by diverting all responsibility to states,

PAUL G. HARRIS

2008-01-01

76

Fair adaptation to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries

Jouni Paavola; W. Neil Adger

2006-01-01

77

The Politics of Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article explains the ways in which climate change is a geopolitical problem. It discusses the potential ramifications of the impacts of climate change on security, and argues that predictions of international conflicts arising from climate change are premature. It explains the spatial politics of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through an overview of the positions of the main actors in

L. Robert

2010-01-01

78

Designing Global Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

2012-12-01

79

Activities for Conceptualizing Climate and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This project is a digitally-based instructional program that contains data-rich case studies and visualization activities, as well as a visual library as a resource for teachers and students. A series of activities is organized to move scientifically from climate, to climate variability, to climate change. The site contains free teacher lesson plans, powerpoints, student activities, a summary of research on student conceptions and a curricular framework/philosopy document.

80

Agriculture and climate change  

SciTech Connect

How will increases in levels of CO{sub 2} and changes in temperature affect food production A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO{sub 2} but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO{sub 2} from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO{sub 2} by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops.

Abelson, P.H.

1992-07-03

81

Free Podcasts on Climate and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In partnership with the National Science Digital Library and Apple, NCAR and UCAR offer podcasts that provide a brief and accessible overview on climate and climate change. These podcasts, short 5-8 minute videos you can download on your computer or iPod, are a part of the NSDL on iTunes U collection.

Payo, Robert

82

Insects and climate change  

SciTech Connect

In this article the author describes some of the significant late glacial and Holocene changes that occurred in the Rocky Mountains, including the regional extirpation of certain beetle species. The fossil data presented here summarize what is known about regional insect responses to climate change in terms of species stability and geographic distribution. To minimize potential problems of species interactions (i.e., insect-host plant relationships, host-parasite relationships, and other interactions that tie a particular insect species' distribution to that of another organism), only predators and scavengers are discussed. These insects respond most rapidly to environmental changes, because for the most part they are not tied to any particular type of vegetation.

Elias, S.A. (Univ. of Colorado, Boulder (United States))

1991-09-01

83

Climate Change Workshop Links  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page is a collection of useful Web links to climate change resources. Only a few resources here right now, but you get the idea... NIERRS Water quality monitoring data page NERRS - Water quality monitoring data This is a great site for water stuff. GOMOOS Site -- buoy monitoring data GOMOOS - Weather and water data (real-time) from Gulf of Maine buoys This is a great site for ocean temperatures and wind speed, etc. Coastal Ocean Observing Center Here\\'s another: The COOLroom ...

Chad, Deb A.

2007-11-20

84

Climate change and ethics  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

What does it matter if the climate changes? This kind of question does not admit of a scientific answer. Natural science can tell us what some of its biophysical effects are likely to be; social scientists can estimate what consequences such effects could have for human lives and livelihoods. But how should we respond? The question is, at root, about how we think we should live--and different people have myriad different ideas about this. The distinctive task of ethics is to bring some clarity and order to these ideas.

Hayward, Tim

2012-12-01

85

Contrails and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this problem-based learning unit, learners analyze the role of condensation trails from jets, or contrails, and their role in climate change. Contrails are thin ice clouds that form from the burning of jet fuel and release of water vapor. The issue with contrails is that narrow trails can spread and coalesce to form significant banks of cirrus-type clouds. Instructions to access NASA data are provided along with additional resources and activities. This module was developed to be used in the Earth System Science Education Alliance (ESSEA) courses for middle and high school teachers and is also available to teachers to adapt for general classroom use.

86

The United States And France Partner In CALIPSO Satellite Education: Providing Students And Teachers With An Opportunity To Collect Sun Photometer Data And Improve Their Understanding Of Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The CALIPSO satellite based research mission was successfully launched, with the CloudSat mission, on a Delta II rocket on April 28, 2006. CALIPSO, an acronym for Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations, is a joint mission between NASA in the United States and CNES in France. CALIPSO uses Lidar to detect the size and distribution of clouds and aerosols. In addition to providing scientists with improved atmospheric data, the launch of CALIPSO is also promoting an international partnership between students and teachers in France and the United States. Under the direction of Dianne Q. Robinson, Hampton University leads the CALIPSO U.S. education and public outreach (EPO) program, while Danielle DeStaerke manages the EPO efforts in France, known as Calisph"Air. The data being collected by CALIPSO is helping scientists, teachers and students to better understand the role aerosols and clouds play in Earth's climate system. Paul Adams, a professor at Fort Hays State University in Kansas, works directly with CALIPSO and Calisph"Air, providing instruction for teachers and unique science education opportunities for students. Since 2004, live events such as web chats and videoconferences have been conducted for students in both countries, allowing them a connection to the mission scientists. In addition, the programs have implemented several teacher workshops in France and the U.S. providing educators with an opportunity to develop a greater understanding of the science of CALIPSO. Key to the success of this international partnership has been the opportunity for both programs to continue to work through GLOBE to involve students in taking measurements of aerosols with a hand-held sun photometer. All data is collected using a precise GLOBE protocol and reported online. The activities developed by the CALIPSO and Calisph"Air education programs, as well as the data collected by students internationally, allows teachers, students and the public to better understand the worldwide impacts made by humans on Earth's atmosphere.

Robinson, D. Q.; Adams, P.

2007-12-01

87

Climate Change: Prospects for Nature  

SciTech Connect

Thomas Lovejoy, President of The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, explores the impact of climate change on the natural world. He also discusses the implications of climate change for climate policy and natural resource management.

Thomas Lovejoy

2008-03-12

88

Mapping vulnerability to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natural

Rasmus Heltberg; Misha Bonch-Osmolovskiy

2011-01-01

89

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Because there is an immediate need for policy decisions on how to prevent or adapt to climate change and how to allocate scarce funds for climate research, we need to move beyond isolated studies of the various parts of the problem. Analysis frameworks are needed that incorporate our knowledge about precursors to, processes of, and consequences from climate change. This

Hadi Dowlatabadi; M. Granger Morgan

1993-01-01

90

Climate Change: Prospects for Nature  

ScienceCinema

Thomas Lovejoy, President of The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, explores the impact of climate change on the natural world. He also discusses the implications of climate change for climate policy and natural resource management.

91

Climate Kids: Birds and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Some bird species appear to respond to extreme weather changes in their native habitat by moving to more hospitable environments. This article discusses the role of NASA satellites, along with field and citizen scientists, in studying that movement. The article also includes an activity on constructing a bird feeder. The Climate Kids website is a NASA education resource featuring articles, videos, images and games focused on the science of climate change.

92

Climate Change on Mars  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Today, Mars is cold and dry. With a 7 mbar mean surface pressure, its thin predominantly CO2 atmosphere is not capable of raising global mean surface temperatures significantly above its 217K effective radiating temperature, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is equivalent to a global ocean only 10 microns deep. Has Mars always been in such a deep freeze? There are several lines of evidence that suggest it has not. First, there are the valley networks which are found throughout the heavily cratered terrains. These features are old (3.8 Gyr) and appear to require liquid water to form. A warm climate early in Mars' history has often been invoked to explain them, but the precise conditions required to achieve this have yet to be determined. Second, some of the features seen in orbiter images of the surface have been interpreted in terms of glacial activity associated with an active hydrological cycle some several billion years ago. This interpretation is controversial as it requires the release of enormous quantities of ground water and enough greenhouse warming to raise temperatures to the melting point. Finally, there are the layered terrains that characterize both polar regions. These terrains are geologically young (10 Myr) and are believed to have formed by the slow and steady deposition of dust and water ice from the atmosphere. The individual layers result from the modulation of the deposition rate which is driven by changes in Mars' orbital parameters. The ongoing research into each of these areas of Martian climate change will be reviewed, and similarities to the Earth's climate system will be noted.

Haberle, R. M.; Cuzzi, Jeffrey N. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

93

Learn More About Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The phrase "climate change" might be combative to some and confusing to others. The University of Colorado's Office for University Outreach has worked with its scholars to create the Learn More About Climate (LMAC) site in order to translate climate change information into "resources and tools for teachers, policymakers, and citizens." Here, visitors can make their way through eight different areas, including Topics, Lessons, Videos, and Initiatives. In the Lessons area, educators will find model lessons about climate change, such as "Mountain Pine Beetles,â "Evidence of Climate Change,â and "What Makes You Hot.â Additionally, the Videos section offers up some excellent short films on rising sea levels and species adaption as a result of climate change. Those interested in specific LMAC projects will enjoy the Initiatives section, as it offers up brief summaries of ongoing projects, complete with two great webinars on Climate Change Conversations.

94

California Climate Change Portal  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Global warming and climate change have been a top priority for a number of international organizations, and in recent years, a number of states have also become profoundly concerned about these transformations. Not surprisingly, the state of California has been interested in these subjects for some time, and this website is an initiative of the various agencies working in this area of research. On this site, visitors can learn about various initiatives sponsored by different agencies within the state and also peruse a list of FAQâÂÂs on the subject. First-time visitors will want to start at the âÂÂBackgroundâ section; they may then proceed to the âÂÂPolicy & Programâ area, where they can learn what the state is doing to combat this situation. Some of these programs include a voluntary greenhouse gas emission registry for California companies and a research program to spur environmentally-friendly energy alternatives. Finally, the site also includes a very nice glossary of terms used in discussing global climate change.

95

Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The Plan for Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) program for global monitoring of man's inadvertent modification of weather and climate. The interrelated activities, several of which sho...

1971-01-01

96

Climate Change: Assessing Our Actions.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The power sector is a major source of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that threaten the stability of the global climate system. OPIC understands the serious implications of GHG emissions and climate change and was the first bilateral fina...

2000-01-01

97

Predicting space climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest-fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long-term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300-year record.

Barnard, L.; Lockwood, M.; Hapgood, M. A.; Owens, M. J.; Davis, C. J.; Steinhilber, F.

2011-08-01

98

Evaluation of the applicability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling method in France  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The uncertainties in climate projections during the next decades generally remain large, with an important contribution of internal climate variability. To quantify and capture the impact of those uncertainties in impact projections, multi-model and multi-member approaches are essential. Statistical downscaling (SD) methods are computationally inexpensive allowing for large ensemble approaches. The main weakness of SD is that it relies on a stationarity hypothesis, namely that the statistical relation established in the present climate remains valid in the climate change context. In this study, the evaluation of SD methods developed for a future study of hydrological changes during the next decades over France is presented, focusing on precipitation. The SD methods are all based on the analogs method which is quite simple to set up and permits to easily test different combinations of predictors, the only changing parameter in the methods discussed in this presentation. The basic idea of the analogs method is that for a same large scale climatic state, the state of local variables will be identical. In a climate change context, the statistical relation established on past climate is assumed to remain valid in the future climate. In practice, this stationarity assumption is impossible to verify until the future climate is effectively observed. It is possible to evaluate the ability of SD methods to reproduce the interannual variability in the present climate, but this approach does not guarantee their validity in the future climate as the mechanisms that play in the interannual and climate change contexts may not be identical. Another common approach is to test whether a SD method is able to reproduce observed, as they may be partly caused by climate changes. The observed trends in precipitation are compared to those obtained by downscaling 4 different atmospheric reanalyses with analogs methods. The uncertainties in downscaled trends due to renalyses are very large compared to the magnitude of observed trends. Moreover some spurious trends in downscaled precipitation associated with temporal inconsistencies in reanalyses variables as surface humidity are noted. It is therefore difficult to assess the applicability of the downscaling methods in the future climate and their respective skill based on trends. Because of those difficulties, a perfect model approach is developed. In the surrogate world of a regional climate model (RCM), the statistical downscaling relation is established in its present climate and then applied to downscale its future projection. It is finally possible to compare future climate change simulated by the RCM and the result of the SD to test the stationarity hypothesis. To obtain robust results, the perfect model framework is applied to 12 RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project. Several analogs methods using different combination of predictors are tested. Some methods, very skillful for present-day interannual variability, are unable to reproduce correctly changes simulated by the RCMs. Another method with similar skill in the present climate, which only differs by the inclusion of the specific humidity at 850 hPa as predictor, is generally applicable in the future climate.

Dayon, G.; Boé, J.; Martin, E.

2013-12-01

99

Global Climate Change: Atmosphere  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site explains how climate change affects everything from stratospheric temperatures to the golden toad of Costa Rica. Graphs, articles, and maps monitor humankind's impact on the planet. The site features five thumbnails including two maps showing Global Outgoing Longwave Heat Radiation, and Global Reflected Shortwave Solar Radiation and three graphs entitled Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Records from Mauna Loa, Hawaii (1958 - 2000), Global Average Near-Surface Temperatures - Monthly Anomalies (1961 - 2002), and Global Stratospheric and Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies (1979 - 2001). Each of these provides a link to a larger version of the visual and a detailed explanation. Each section has links to a glossary as well as links to questions about each section and additional references.

100

Earth's Climate and Global Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

With three levels to choose from on each page - beginner, intermediate or advanced - this site provides information on the way climate affects our world. Global climate, regional climate, and climate change are all explained. There is an important section on what controls climate change, like the sun, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, snow, and ice. there is a module called Energy Choices and Climate Change that provides a new way to look at issues related to energy and climate change. In the scenarios within this module, you will be able to make decisions about the types and amount of energy used and see what effect your decisions have on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted to the atmosphere. Your goal is to reduce the amount of warming greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere from fossil fuel emissions while keeping costs within reason.

2004-05-11

101

Preparing for climate change.  

PubMed

There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been released in great quantities through their use in aerosol sprays, refrigerator fluids, and insulating foams. We can get rid of CFCs and curb the pollutants generating ozone, but it will be difficult to put the brake on either methane or nitrous oxide. And the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions will demand major changes in energy policy as well as action to slow deforestation. It appears that we are already committed to rising temperatures and sea levels. The question is by how much, in which areas? A number of things can be done to prepare for these changes: Governments must recognize that there is a problem; Better models must be worked out, especially to define where the greatest impacts from climate change and sea level rise will hit; Reference scenarios must be developed to see what the impacts are likely to be in ecological, agricultural, social and economic terms; Every country should develop "avoidance strategies" to minimize risk (for example, by not building on land likely to be flooded); We must cut down on the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere from human activities, by eliminating CFCs and adopting energy conservation programs and other measures to minimize CO2 release; Global agreements to protect the atmosphere are needed. PMID:12285901

Holdgate, M

1989-01-01

102

Climate Change and Agriculture: Economic  

Microsoft Academic Search

Agriculture is arguably the most important sector of the economy that is highly dependent on climate. A large body of scientific data and models have been developed to predict the impacts of the contemporary and future climate. Since the first IPCC Assessment Report was published in 1990, substantial efforts have been directed toward understand - ing climate change impacts on

John M. Antle

2008-01-01

103

Hurricanes-Climate Change Connection  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page focuses on recent natural disasters and the latest climate change research to engage students with topical issues and help them understand the larger issue of climate change. Includes resources and visualizations of recent storms such as Katrina and changing coastlines worldwide.

104

Climate change and moral judgement  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Converging evidence from the behavioural and brain sciences suggests that the human moral judgement system is not well equipped to identify climate change -- a complex, large-scale and unintentionally caused phenomenon -- as an important moral imperative. As climate change fails to generate strong moral intuitions, it does not motivate an urgent need for action in the way that other moral imperatives do. We review six reasons why climate change poses significant challenges to our moral judgement system and describe six strategies that communicators might use to confront these challenges. Enhancing moral intuitions about climate change may motivate greater support for ameliorative actions and policies.

Markowitz, Ezra M.; Shariff, Azim F.

2012-04-01

105

Clouds and climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As concern grows over the possibility of altering the Earth's climate, a major uncertainty exists in computer models used to study the Earth's atmosphere, regarding our current understanding of clouds and our ability to simulate their effect on climate. A number of recent observations and computer simulation studies, however, have shed light on the important role of clouds in determining the present and future climate of our atmosphere.Data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Earth Radiation Budget Experiment have been used to obtain an accurate picture of how clouds affect our present global climate system [Ramanathan, 1989]. The effect of clouds on solar and thermal radiation entering and leaving our climate is known as cloud forcing. Low clouds generally cool the Earth's surface, while high clouds warm the climate system. For the entire planet, however, the cooling effect of low clouds is stronger than the warming effect from high clouds, so that overall, clouds cool the climate.

Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

106

Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate scientists configure computer model parameters through the portal user interface. After model configuration, scientists then launch the computing task. Next, data is atomized and distributed to computing engines that are running on citizen participants' computers. Scientists will receive notifications on the completion of computing tasks, and examine modeling results via visualization modules of the portal. Computing tasks, computing resources, and participants are managed by project managers via portal tools. A portal prototype has been built for proof of concept. Three forums have been setup for different groups of users to share information on science aspect, technology aspect, and educational outreach aspect. A facebook account has been setup to distribute messages via the most popular social networking platform. New treads are synchronized from the forums to facebook. A mapping tool displays geographic locations of the participants and the status of tasks on each client node. A group of users have been invited to test functions such as forums, blogs, and computing resource monitoring.

Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

2011-12-01

107

Climate Change and National Security  

SciTech Connect

Climate change is increasingly recognized as having national security implications, which has prompted dialogue between the climate change and national security communities – with resultant advantages and differences. Climate change research has proven useful to the national security community sponsors in several ways. It has opened security discussions to consider climate as well as political factors in studies of the future. It has encouraged factoring in the stresses placed on societies by climate changes (of any kind) to help assess the potential for state stability. And it has shown that, changes such as increased heat, more intense storms, longer periods without rain, and earlier spring onset call for building climate resilience as part of building stability. For the climate change research community, studies from a national security point of view have revealed research lacunae, for example, such as the lack of usable migration studies. This has also pushed the research community to consider second- and third-order impacts of climate change, such as migration and state stability, which broadens discussion of future impacts beyond temperature increases, severe storms, and sea level rise; and affirms the importance of governance in responding to these changes. The increasing emphasis in climate change science toward research in vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation also frames what the intelligence and defense communities need to know, including where there are dependencies and weaknesses that may allow climate change impacts to result in security threats and where social and economic interventions can prevent climate change impacts and other stressors from resulting in social and political instability or collapse.

Malone, Elizabeth L.

2013-02-01

108

Ground water and climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

2013-04-01

109

Generating Arguments About Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this article from the NSTA Press Journal, Science Scope, students participate in a unit on global climate change by engaging in the process of scientific argumentation. The lessons presented in this article were created using the generate-an-argument model to help students understand climate change science. The article is free to both NSTA members and nonmembers.

Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

2012-03-01

110

Climate Change and African Development  

Microsoft Academic Search

People in Africa are already experiencing a significant impact on their livelihoods from climate change. This is tragic in on several levels. Firstly, Africa's historical contribution to the causes of heightened greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere is negligible. Climate change is not a threat of Africa's making. Secondly, the solution to the problem is mostly outside of Africa's control.

Nick Mabey; Jan Ole Kiso

2007-01-01

111

Climate Kids: How Do We Know the Climate Is Changing?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This question is addressed through a series of questions and answers, each providing related introductory information such as how climate change is studied, the history of Earthâs climate, and the effects of climate change on Earthâs geology and biology. The Climate Kids website is a NASA education resource featuring articles, videos, images and games focused on the science of climate change.

112

The World Bank: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Climate change continues to be of grave concern to many, and the World Bank is particularly concerned with the ramifications it will have on people in the developing world. Their Climate Change site is designed to provide an overview of their work on this vexing problem and information about their current projects, data sets, research papers, and books. Visitors should start by looking over their weblog, and then take a look at their "What's New" area. Here they can learn about innovative carbon trading programs, engineering projects, and international agreements designed to mitigate the effects of climate change. The "Research & Analysis" area has dozens of free publications, including the very relevant "Climate Resilient Cities" work, which discusses how city governments can better understand how to plan for the impact of climate change through sound urban planning.

2009-08-13

113

The World Bank: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Climate change continues to be of grave concern to many, and the World Bank is particularly concerned with the ramifications it will have on people in the developing world. Their Climate Change site is designed to provide an overview of their work on this vexing problem including information about their current projects, data sets, research papers, and books. Visitors should start by looking over their weblog, and then take a look at their "News" area. Here, they can learn about innovative carbon trading programs, engineering projects, and international agreements designed to mitigate the effects of climate change. The "Research" area has dozens of free publications, including the very relevant "Climate Resilient Cities" work, which discusses how city governments can better understand how to plan for the impact of climate change through sound urban planning.

114

Adapting agriculture to climate change  

PubMed Central

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

Howden, S. Mark; Soussana, Jean-Francois; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

2007-01-01

115

Diverse views on climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change; Santa Fe, New Mexico, 30 October to 4 November 2011 At the Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change, hosted by the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Center for Nonlinear Studies, researchers offered some of the latest thinking on how to observe and model the driving forces as well as the impacts of regional and global climate change, climate system responses, and societal impacts. It was the third in a series of conferences held at 5-year intervals. More than 140 climate science experts from the United States and foreign universities and research centers attended the conference, held at the La Fonda Hotel in historic downtown Santa Fe. The conference program included more than 80 invited and contributed oral presentations and about 30 posters. The oral sessions were grouped by topic into sessions of four or five talks, with discussion occurring at the end of each session

Garrett, Timothy; Dubey, Manvendra; Schwartz, Stephen

2012-04-01

116

Dictionary of global climate change  

SciTech Connect

This book represents a revision of the climate change lexicon that was prepared for the Second World Climate Conference in 1990. The conference had 1400 participants and consisted of a scientific component followed by a ministerial meeting. To foster communication among the different constituencies, a lexicon of climate and climate change was prepared for the participants. The dictionary includes definitions and descriptions of most of the scientific terms, organizations, and programs related to the physical aspects of climate change. Nearly 40% of the material describes organized projects, experiments, or programs, mostly international. Some information on biological topics, such as the difference between C3 and C4 plants, is also included. The length of definitions and descriptions ranges from one line to one or more pages, with the longer descriptions usually related to programs.

Maunder, W.J. (ed.)

1992-01-01

117

Basic science of climate change  

SciTech Connect

Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are enhancing the natural greenhouse effect. There is almost universal agreement in the scientific community that this will lead to a warming of the lower atmosphere and of the earth's surface. However, the exact timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of this future warming are very uncertain. Merely taking account of changes in the global mean climate is not enough, especially when considering the impacts of climate change. Man also have to consider the rate and regional distribution of climate change and changes in the frequency of events. An increase in the frequency of extremes, such as droughts and storms, and rapid climate change are two factors which could have dramatic effects on human society and natural ecosystems. However, systems already under stress or close to their climate limits are likely to experience the greatest difficulty in adapting to change. Although human activity has been increasing greenhouse gas concentrations for a hundred years, man cannot yet detect unequivocally a greenhouse gas induced signal in climate records. However, increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are almost bound to continue and are likely to emerge as the dominant perturbation of the earth's climate in the coming decades.

Maskell, K.; Callander, B.A. (Hadley Centre, Bracknell (United Kingdom)); Mintzer, I.M. (Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States))

1993-10-23

118

Extinction risk from climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change over the past ~30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of

Chris D. Thomas; Alison Cameron; Rhys E. Green; Michel Bakkenes; Linda J. Beaumont; Yvonne C. Collingham; Barend F. N. Erasmus; Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira; Alan Grainger; Lee Hannah; Lesley Hughes; Brian Huntley; Albert S. van Jaarsveld; Guy F. Midgley; Lera Miles; Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta; A. Townsend Peterson; Oliver L. Phillips; Stephen E. Williams

2004-01-01

119

Changes in drought characteristics in France during the 21st century  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Standardized drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been shown to be highly relevant for drought reconstruction and drought monitoring. Such indices can be built to deal with different types of drought (meteorological, agricultural and hydrological) and to study droughts at different time and spatial scales. In this study, a 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France recently built with Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite will serve as a basis for assessing the impact of climate change on droughts. An ensemble of climate projections have been statistically downscaled in order to force the Isba and Modcou hydrological models over France and generate 8-km gridded soil moisture time series as well as streamflow time series at more than 900 locations. Two different statistical downscaling methods have been applied using the Safran high resolution atmospheric reanalysis dataset over France: a method based on weather types and regressions, and a quantile-quantile method. As a first step, transient runs from only one general circulation model have been used under different climate scenarios. Three different standardized indices previously applied for the drought reanalysis are here used to estimate the evolution of droughts in the future: the commonly used SPI, the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI) based on soil moisture simulated by Isba and the Standardized Flow Index (SFI) based on streamflow computed by Modcou. Changes in the characteristics (occurrence, intensity, duration, spatial scale) of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in France during the 21st century are here presented using the different drought indices. This panel of indices may provide useful information at the level of interest of different human activities (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc.).

Najac, Julien; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Martin, Eric; Franchisteguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2010-05-01

120

Fire Weather Index : from high resolution climatology to Climate change impact study  

Microsoft Academic Search

Fire meteo indices provide efficient guidance tools for the prevention, early warning and surveillance of forest fires. These indices are only based on meteorological input data. Fire meteorological danger is estimated by Météo-France at national level through the use of Fire Weather Index. This study deals with the impact of climate change on fire danger in France. It has been

E. Cloppet; M. Regimbeau

2010-01-01

121

Taking Action on Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

At this Government of Canada website, visitors can "learn about the science, impacts and adaptation to climate change and how individuals, governments, businesses, industry and communities take action by reducing greenhouse gas emissions." Through maps, graphs, and clear text, users can learn the basics of climate change and the greenhouse gases. The website details many of the ecological, economic, and global impacts of climate change. Users can find out about the One-Tonne Challenge, which encourages everyone to reduce their emissions. Teachers can find questions and activities to educate their students about climate change. The website also offers a calculator to estimate a user's current emissions, a series of videos instructing individuals how to create an energy efficient home and car, as well as publications and media resources. This site is also reviewed in the March 18, 2005 _NSDL Physical Sciences Report_.

122

Psychology: Climate change hits home  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engaging the public with climate change has proved difficult, in part because they see the problem as remote. New evidence suggests that direct experience of one anticipated impact -- flooding -- increases people's concern and willingness to save energy.

Weber, Elke U.

2011-04-01

123

Climate change and human health.  

PubMed

Climate change impacts on human health span the trajectory of time-past, present, and future. The key finding from the Working Group II, Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that health impacts due to climate change have already occurred in the past, are currently occurring and will continue to occur, at least for the foreseeable future, even with immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions [1]. According to the IPCC, there has been increased heat-related mortality and decreased cold-related mortality in some regions as a result of warming (Box 1). Moreover, local changes in temperature and rainfall have altered the distribution of some water-borne illnesses and disease vectors. Impacts of climate-related extremes include alteration of ecosystems, disruption of food production and water supply, damage to infrastructure and settlements, morbidity and mortality, and consequences for mental health and human well-being [1]. [...]. PMID:25046633

Semenza, Jan C

2014-01-01

124

Climate Change and South Dakota.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The earth's climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The heat-trap...

1998-01-01

125

NASA Climate Change Resource Reel  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This collection of resources from NASA includes animations and still shots covering a wide range of topics in climate, including the cryosphere, ocean sciences, changes on land, the atmosphere, and satellite images.

Nasa

126

Climate change epidemiology: methodological challenges  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is now thought to be unequivocal, while its potential effects on global and public health cannot be ignored.\\u000a However, the complexities of the causal webs, the dynamics of the interactions and unpredictability mean that climate change\\u000a presents new challenges to epidemiology and magnifies existing methodological problems. This article reviews a number of such\\u000a challenges, including topics such as

Wei W. Xun; Aneire E. Khan; Edwin Michael; Paolo Vineis

2010-01-01

127

Climate Change: Teaching Through Technology  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Maine Mathematics and Science Alliance Dec. 6, 2007 Agenda 8:00 Welcome Puzzle Intro Overview: The Science of Climate Change Carbon Cycle Activity Data Analysis: Buoy Data Activity Using Technology Effectively 10:00-10:15 Break Links to the 2007 Maine Learning Results Introduction to Afternoon Exploration COSEE (COSEE Ocean-Climate beta website) Giovanni project (Givoanni: Arabian Sea Lesson) (Giovanni Graphing Activity) Earth Exploration Toolkit: Whither Arctic Sea Ice? (Whither Arctic Sea Ice?) Google Earth Climate Change Resources 11:15-12:00 Lunch Afternoon Resource Exploration Exploration Report and Discussion Antarctic Expedition Opportunity WAIS Divide Outreach Blog WAIS Divide Main Science Page Wrap-Up/Evaluation ...

Chad, Deb A.

2007-12-06

128

Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

Armstrong, Jennifer

2014-05-01

129

Climate change and biodiversity  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary There is already widespread change in the natural calendars (phenology) of plants and animals, as well as change in some species distributions. Now threshold change (sudden, fundamental change) in ecosystems is beginning to be observed in nature. At minimum, the natural world will experience an equal amount of warming to that which has already taken place. This all suggests

T. Lovejoy

2008-01-01

130

Climate change and preventive medicine.  

PubMed

Thermal stress, food poisoning, infectious diseases, malnutrition, psychiatric illness as well as injury and death from floods, storms and fire are all likely to become more common as the earth warms and the climate becomes more variable. In contrast, obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery disease do not result from climate change, but they do share causes with climate change. Burning fossil fuels, for example, is the major source of greenhouse gases, but it also makes pervasive physical inactivity possible. Similarly, modern agriculture's enormous production of livestock contributes substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, and it is the source of many of our most energy-rich foods. Physicians and societies of medical professionals have a particular responsibility, therefore, to contribute to the public discourse about climate change and what to do about it. PMID:18043291

Faergeman, Ole

2007-12-01

131

Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes.  

PubMed

One of the potential effects of an anthropogenically induced climate change is a change in mortality related to thermal stress. In this paper, existing literature on the relationship between average temperatures and mortality is evaluated. By means of a simple meta-analysis an aggregated effect of a change in temperature on mortality is estimated for total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. These effect estimates are combined with projections of changes in baseline climate conditions of 20 cities, according to climate change scenarios of three General Circulation Models (GCMs). The results indicate that for most of the cities included, global climate change is likely to lead to a reduction in mortality rates due to decreasing winter mortality. This effect is most pronounced for cardiovascular mortality in elderly people in cities which experience temperate or cold climates at present. The sensitivity of the results to physiological and socio-economical adaptation is examined. However, more research is necessary to extend this work by inclusion of data from a wider range of populations. PMID:9460815

Martens, W J

1998-02-01

132

Climate change and avian influenza  

PubMed Central

Summary This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in water bird populations will continue with endless adaptation and evolution. In domestic poultry, too little is known about the direct effect of environmental factors on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission and persistence to allow inference about the possible effect of climate change. However, possible indirect links through changes in the distribution of duck-crop farming are discussed.

Slingenbergh, J.; Xiao, X.

2009-01-01

133

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and

Mike Hulme

2003-01-01

134

Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin  

Microsoft Academic Search

A phenological study of springtime events was made over a 61-year period at one site in southern Wisconsin. The records over this long period show that several phenological events have been increasing in earliness; we discuss evidence indicating that these changes ref lect climate change. The mean of regressions for the 55 phenophases studied was 20.12 day per year, an

NINA L. BRADLEY; A. CARL LEOPOLD; J OHN ROSS; WELLINGTON HUFFAKER

1999-01-01

135

Topex/Poseidon: A United States/France mission. Oceanography from space: The oceans and climate  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The TOPEX/POSEIDON space mission, sponsored by NASA and France's space agency, the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), will give new observations of the Earth from space to gain a quantitative understanding of the role of ocean currents in climate change. Rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other 'greenhouse gases' produced as a result of human activities could generate a global warming, followed by an associated rise in sea level. The satellite will use radar altimetry to measure sea-surface height and will be tracked by three independent systems to yield accurate topographic maps over the dimensions of entire ocean basins. The satellite data, together with the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) measurements, will be analyzed by an international scientific team. By merging the satellite observations with TOGA and WOCE findings, the scientists will establish the extensive data base needed for the quantitative description and computer modeling of ocean circulation. The ocean models will eventually be coupled with atmospheric models to lay the foundation for predictions of global climate change.

1992-01-01

136

Climate change and food security  

PubMed Central

Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change.

Gregory, P.J; Ingram, J.S.I; Brklacich, M

2005-01-01

137

Climate change impacts on forestry  

SciTech Connect

Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. The authors' review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. They concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand.

Kirilenko, A.P. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science and Policy; Sedjo, R.A. [Resources for the Future, Washington, DC (United States)

2007-12-11

138

Study of Climate Change in the Arctic  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page describes why and how scientists study climate change in the Arctic. It includes information on the climate indices and important research concepts used by scientists to study climate change.

Overland, Jim; Soreide, Nancy; Bond, Nick

2000-01-01

139

Greenhouse gas induced climate change.  

PubMed

Simulations using global coupled climate models predict a climate change due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. Both are associated with the burning of fossil fuels. There has been considerable debate if this postulated human influence is already evident. This paper gives an overview on some recent material on this question. One particular study using optimal fingerprints (Hegerl et al., 1996) is explained in more detail. In this study, an optimal fingerprint analysis is applied to temperature trend patterns over several decades. The results show the probability being less than 5% that the most recently observed 30 year trend is due to naturally occurring climate fluctuations. This result suggests that the present warming is caused by some external influence on climate, e.g. by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. More work is needed to address the uncertainties in the magnitude of naturally occurring climate fluctuations. Also, other external influences on climate need to be investigated to uniquely attribute the present climate change to the human influence. PMID:24234957

Hegerl, G C; Cubasch, U

1996-06-01

140

Inuit Observations on Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This is an overview of the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) project at Sachs Harbour on Banks Island, Northwest Territories, Canada, an effort to document the problem of Arctic climate change as experienced by the Inuit living there. There is video commentary by Inuit in which they describe changes in daily life for animals and people at Sachs Harbour: banks caving from permafrost melt, seasonal changes and new types of animals appearing as the old familiar animals disappear, ice dangerously opening up, and most importantly, a new unpredictability added to the usual extreme weather conditions in the Arctic region. The video comes in an abbreviated version, 14 minutes in length, as well as the full version, which is 42 minutes in length. There are reports of IISD trips made during different seasons at Sachs Harbour, a teacher guide for the video, and a report on the climate observations discussed in the IISD: Inuit Observations on Climate Change workshop.

141

Greenhouse gas induced climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Simulations using global coupled climate models predict a climate change due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse\\u000a gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. Both are associated with the burning of fossil fuels. There has been considerable debate\\u000a if this postulated human influence is already evident. This paper gives an overview on some recent material on this question.\\u000a One particular study

Gabriele C. Hegerl; Ulrich Cubasch

1996-01-01

142

FY 2002 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

PRA Goal 6: Reducing Global and Transboundary Environmental Risks Objective 6.2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sub-Objective 6.2.3: Global Climate Change Research Activity F55 - Assessing the Consequences of Global Change on Ecosystem Health NRMRL R...

143

Adapting to Climate Change: Research Challenges  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Community Coordination; Boulder, Colorado, 8-9 January 2009; In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) reaffirmed that anthropogenic climate change is under way, that future climate change is unavoidable, and that observed impacts can be attributed, at least in part, to anthropogenic warming. In addition, a growing number of

Jean Palutikof; Patricia Romero-Lankao

2009-01-01

144

Setting priorities for adapting to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

It is not likely that efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions will completely eliminate the risk of climate change. Thus, policymakers will eventually have to address adaptation to the effects of climate change. Given the uncertainties about the timing, direction, and magnitude of regional climate change, it might seem preferable to postpone adaptive measures until after climate changes. Yet, this

Joel B Smith

1997-01-01

145

Interactive Quizzes on Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This website allows you to test your knowledge on 5 topics. Warm Up: Test your knowledge about global temperature change and its impact on Earth's climate; Freeze Frames: How much do you know about glaciers and ice caps?; Sea Change: Test your knowledge of sea level rise and its effect on global populations; It's A Gas: Test your knowledge of carbon dioxide and why it's so important to climate stability and our quality of life; Each test consists of 10 questions and are immediately scored. The final module, 10 Things You Never Knew About Earth: Discover some amazing and little-known facts about our home planet, allows you to learn facts about the Earth and Climate Change.

146

Fisheries and Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

When populations of harvestable fish start to decline, managers look for explanations of the changes throughout the Earth system. In this activity, the impact of global climate change on marine and Great Lakes fish is considered. First, decline in the striped bass population of the North Atlantic, noted in the Downeaster Alexa song by Billy Joel, is examined with spreadsheet analysis and on-line searches of National Marine Fisheries Service databases. In a second investigation, ArcView generates a model of the Lake Erie depths that could be associated with global climate change (shallower water). Students identify fish species that use nearshore shallows for spawning and nursery areas, and speculate on the impact of the lower water. In both activities, the thermal niche of the species is considered as a factor in where fish populations may migrate with new climate regimes.

Fortner, Rosanne; Merry, Carolyn

2002-07-31

147

Renewable Energy and Climate Change  

SciTech Connect

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) at http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/ (May 2011 electronic version; printed form ISBN 978-1-107-60710-1, 2012). More than 130 scientists contributed to the report.* The SRREN assessed existing literature on the future potential of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change within a portfolio of mitigation options including energy conservation and efficiency, fossil fuel switching, RE, nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS). It covers the six most important renewable energy technologies - bioenergy, direct solar, geothermal, hydropower, ocean and wind, as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It also takes into consideration the environmental and social consequences associated with these technologies, the cost and strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion.

Chum, H. L.

2012-01-01

148

Atmospheric rivers in changing climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atmospheric rivers are impressive, intermittent circulation features in mid-latitude regions of the globe that can cause disastrous floods if they smash against mountainous terrain. While discovered by meteorologists and long feared by hydrologists they have only recently come to the broader attention of climate scientists. In a new letter published in Environmental Research Letters, Lavers et al (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 034010) investigate atmospheric rivers reaching the British Isles in the context of climate change. They consider these potentially devastating meteorological features in present and future climate model scenarios, and walk through possible mechanisms that could cause them to strengthen. This is a refreshingly new work that estimates extreme events in future climates with an impact driven approach.

Liepert, Beate G.

2013-09-01

149

Plate Movements and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this activity students use maps of the positions of the continents over the past 180 million years, and, with some basic concepts about climate zones, hypothesize what climate changes may have occurred due to plate movements. They will discover that even though climate zones are oriented roughly parallel to lines of latitude about the Earth, according to the theory of plate tectonics, the continents "ride" on dynamic plates which make up the Earth's surface. Although the resulting movement of the continents is very slow, over millions of years it is enough to get a continent from one place to another, and that movement may take the landmass through several latitudes and climate zones.

Bice, Karen

150

US Climate Change Science Program  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This Web site offers a portal to the recently held Planning Workshop for Scientists and Stakeholders, convened by the Bush administration to set the research agenda for its US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). Clicking on Library will call up the draft strategic plan for the CCSP, which may be downloaded in whole or in part. The Web site also provides an overview of the meetings and the program, along with various publications and white papers also available to download. Climate change researchers and other interested parties should find this site a useful resource for keeping tabs on the current administration's stance on the issue.

151

Predicting space climate change.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Observations of solar activity measures have shown that the minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 was the longest and deepest since about 1900, making it the lowest mean solar activity level of the space age. Furthermore, despite the fact that the evolution of solar cycle 24 is such that its maximum is due to occur in late 2012/2013, solar activity is still comparatively low, as can be observed in sunspot number, the interplanetary magnetic field strength and cosmic ray fluxes. This scenario is consistent with recent predictions that the sun is due to exit the grand solar maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age. If this prediction is correct, then two interesting questions arise: How much will average solar activity levels decline? How quickly do we expect this to happen? One way to answer these questions, in the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, is to produce analogue forecasts of long term space climate by studying past variations of solar activity. This is achieved by compositing previous declines in solar activity upon exiting 24 GSMs contained in a 9300-year record of the solar modulation potential derived from cosmogenic isotopes. We present predictions of probable future variations in the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and sunspot number and examine the likelihood that the descent will take us back to Maunder Minimum levels of activity. Furthermore we consider the cycle to cycle persistence in group sunspot number and the heliospheric modulation potential and use this to show that given the recent variation in solar activity we are almost certainly exiting a GSM and that there is an estimated chance of at least 8% of returning to Maunder Minimum conditions in the next 40 years.

Barnard, L.; Lockwood, M.; Owens, M. J.; Davis, C. J.; Hapgood, M. A.; Steinhilber, F.

2012-04-01

152

Preparing for climate change in Washington State  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural,\\u000a and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information\\u000a into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change.\\u000a This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and

Lara C. Whitely Binder; Jennifer Krencicki Barcelos; Derek B. Booth; Meriel Darzen; Marketa McGuire Elsner; Richard Fenske; Thomas F. Graham; Alan F. Hamlet; John Hodges-Howell; J. Elizabeth Jackson; Catherine Karr; Patrick W. Keys; Jeremy S. Littell; Nathan Mantua; Jennifer Marlow; Don McKenzie; Michael Robinson-Dorn; Eric A. Rosenberg; Claudio O. Stöckle; Julie A. Vano

2010-01-01

153

Applying Conceptual Change to climate change communication  

Microsoft Academic Search

Misconceptions in science are usually developed as ways to explain the world before receiving correct teaching on the matter. In the case of climate change, however, some common misconceptions are still developed by the individual but others are deliberately manufactured and communicated to others by those in ideological opposition to the scientific consensus. Regardless of the source of the misconceptions,

K. Hayhoe; D. Hayhoe

2008-01-01

154

AEROSOL, CLOUDS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE  

SciTech Connect

Earth's climate is thought to be quite sensitive to changes in radiative fluxes that are quite small in absolute magnitude, a few watts per square meter, and in relation to these fluxes in the natural climate. Atmospheric aerosol particles exert influence on climate directly, by scattering and absorbing radiation, and indirectly by modifying the microphysical properties of clouds and in turn their radiative effects and hydrology. The forcing of climate change by these indirect effects is thought to be quite substantial relative to forcing by incremental concentrations of greenhouse gases, but highly uncertain. Quantification of aerosol indirect forcing by satellite- or ground-based remote sensing has proved quite difficult in view of inherent large variation in the pertinent observables such as cloud optical depth, which is controlled mainly by liquid water path and only secondarily by aerosols. Limited work has shown instances of large magnitude of aerosol indirect forcing, with local instantaneous forcing upwards of 50 W m{sup 66}-2. Ultimately it will be necessary to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models to accurately identify the anthropogenic forcing at present and over secular time and to assess the influence of this forcing in the context of other forcings of climate change. While the elements of aerosol processes that must be represented in models describing the evolution and properties of aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation particles are known, many important components of these processes remain to be understood and to be represented in models, and the models evaluated against observation, before such model-based representations can confidently be used to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models.

SCHWARTZ, S.E.

2005-09-01

155

United Nations Environment Programme: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This portal provides access to information on the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) initiatives on the issue of climate change. Materials include UNEP's areas of focus on addressing climate change (climate, finance, and business; emissions mitigation; carbon sequestration; vulnerability and adaptation to climate change; and others); links to UNEP Climate Change Centres; links to partner organizations; and links to information and media activities. There are also links to multimedia materials (posters, films, and video), printed publications on climate change, maps and graphics, and links to other organizations working on the issue of climate change.

156

The Atlantic Climate Change Program  

SciTech Connect

The Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) is a component of NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program. ACCP is directed at determining the role of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean on global atmospheric climate. Efforts and progress in four ACCP elements are described. Advances include (1) descriptions of decadal and longer-term variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system of the North Atlantic; (2) development of tools needed to perform long-term model runs of coupled simulations of North Atlantic air-sea interaction; (3) definition of mean and time-dependent characteristics of the thermohaline circulation; and (4) development of monitoring strategies for various elements of the thermohaline circulation. 20 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

Molinari, R.L. (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States)); Battisti, D. (Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)); Bryan, K. (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States)); Walsh, J. (Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States))

1994-07-01

157

Stratospheric aerosols and climatic change  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generated primarily by volcanic explosions, a layer of submicron silicate particles and particles made of concentrated sulfuric acids solution is present in the stratosphere. Flights through the stratosphere may be a future source of stratospheric aerosols, since the effluent from supersonic transports contains sulfurous gases (which will be converted to H2SO4) while the exhaust from Space Shuttles contains tiny aluminum oxide particles. Global heat balance calculations have shown that the stratospheric aerosols have made important contributions to some climatic changes. In the present paper, accurate radiative transfer calculations of the globally-averaged surface temperature (T) are carried out to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to changes in the number of stratospheric aerosols. The results obtained for a specified model atmosphere, including a vertical profile of the aerosols, indicate that the climate is unlikely to be affected by supersonic transports and Space Shuttles, during the next decades.

Baldwin, B.; Pollack, J. B.; Summers, A.; Toon, O. B.; Sagan, C.; Van Camp, W.

1976-01-01

158

The basic science of anthropogenic climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article presents the basic science of climate change upon which our concern of possible anthropogenic interference with the climate system is based. Where possible, those aspects of particular relevance to the study of climate change impact assessment will be highlighted to set the scene for the remaining articles in this issue, which focus on the effects of climate change

Kathy Maskell

1995-01-01

159

Solar Changes and Climate Changes. (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

During the early decades of the Space Age there was general agreement in the scientific community on two facts: (1) sunspot cycles continued without interruption; (2) decadal timescale variations in the solar output has no effect on Earth’s climate. Then in 1976 Jack Eddy published a paper called ‘The Maunder Minimum” in Science magazine arguing that neither of these two established facts was true. He reviewed the observations from the 17th century that show the Sun did not appear to cycle for several decades and he related that to the cold winters in Northern Europe at that time. The paper has caused three decades of hot discussions. When Jack Eddy died on June 10th of this year the arguments were sill going on, and there were no sunspots that day. The Sun was in the longest and deepest solar minimum since 1900. In this talk I will describe the changes in the solar output that have taken place over the last few decades and put them in their historical context. I will also review recent work on the influence of decadal and century scale solar variations on the Earth’s climate. It is clear that this long, deep “solar minimum” is an opportunity to make fundamental progress on our understanding of the solar dynamo and to separate climate change due to the Sun from anthropogenic climate change.

Feynman, J.

2009-12-01

160

Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary  

Microsoft Academic Search

Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by

N. Bhatti; R. R. Cirillo; R. K. Dixon

1995-01-01

161

A Lesson on Climate Change.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

Lewis, Jim

162

Global Climate Change Interaction Web.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

Fortner, Rosanne W.

1998-01-01

163

CLIMATE CHANGE AND N DEPOSITION  

EPA Science Inventory

This project investigates the potential influence of climate change on wet deposition of reduced nitrogen across the U.S. The concentration of ammonium-nitrogen in precipitation is known to increase with temperature, owing to temperature dependent ammonia source strengths (natur...

164

Climatic Change and Human Evolution.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)

Garratt, John R.

1995-01-01

165

Forensic entomology and climatic change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Forensic entomology establishes the postmortem interval (PMI) by studying cadaveric fauna. The PMI today is still largely based on tables of insect succession on human cadavers compiled in the late 19th- or mid-20th centuries. In the last few years, however, the gradual warming of the climate has been changing faunal communities by favouring the presence of thermophilous species. To demonstrate

Margherita Turchetto; Stefano Vanin

2004-01-01

166

Farm programs and climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The view that the agricultural sector could largely offset any negative impacts of climate change by altering production practices assumes the government will not create disincentives for farmers to adapt. U.S. farm programs, however, often discourage such obvious adaptations as switching crops, investing in water conserving technologies, and entry or exit. We outline a simple portfolio model describing producer decision

J. K. Lewandrowski; R. J. Brazee

1993-01-01

167

Efficient Adaptation to Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Firms and individuals will likelyengage in substantial private adaptation with respectto climate change in such sectors as farming, energy,timber, and recreation because it is in their interestto do so. The shared benefit nature of jointadaptation, however, will cause individuals tounderprovide joint adaptation in such areas as watercontrol, sea walls, and ecological management. Governments need to start thinking about jointadaptation, being

Robert Mendelsohn

2000-01-01

168

Protected areas and climate change.  

PubMed

The study of protected areas and climate change has now spanned two decades. Pioneering work in the late 1980s recognized the potential implications of shifting species range boundaries for static protected areas. Many early recommendations for protected area design were general, emphasizing larger protected areas, buffer zones, and connectivity between reserves. There were limited practical tests of these suggestions. Development of modeling and conservation planning methods in the 1990s allowed more rigorous testing of concepts of reserve and connectivity function in a changing climate. These studies have shown decreasing species representation in existing reserves due to climate change, and the ability of new protected areas to help slow loss of representation in mid-century scenarios. Connectivity on protected area periphery seems more effective than corridors linking protected areas. However, corridors serving other purposes, such as large carnivore movement, may be useful for accommodating species range shifts as well. Assisted migration and ex situ management strategies to complement protected areas are being explored. Finally, in scenarios of the latter half of the century, protected areas and connectivity become increasingly expensive and decreasingly effective, indicating the importance of reducing human-induced climate change. PMID:18566095

Hannah, Lee

2008-01-01

169

Poverty Traps and Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

We use a demo-economic model to examine the question of whether climate change could widen or deepen poverty traps. The model includes two crucial mechanisms. Parents are risk averse when deciding how many children to have; fertility is high when infant survival is low. High fertility spreads scarce household resources thin, resulting in children being poorly educated. At the macro

Richard S. J. Tol

2011-01-01

170

Climate change and trace gases.  

PubMed

Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment. PMID:17513270

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

2007-07-15

171

Links between multidecadal and interdecadal climatic oscillations in the North Atlantic and regional climate variability of northern France and England since the 17th century  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowledge of the variability of climate in the past is essential for understanding current climatic changes. Therefore, we investigated two temperature indices and seven rainfall time series of northwestern Europe since the 17th century. Trends and multidecadal to interdecadal variability are similar in England and northern France for temperature, whereas a strong regional contrast is evident between the two regions for rainfall. Multidecadal and interdecadal variability displays several periods of enhanced amplitude for both temperature and rainfall that may be related to large-scale climate control. On these scales, temperatures in both England and France display phase opposition with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) before 1800, while they are in-phase afterward, as determined by wavelet coherence. On the other hand, the relationships between temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are weak across multidecadal and interdecadal scales for the whole period under study. For rainfall, coherence with the AMO is observed for scales at around 30-60 years, whereas coherence with the NAO is detected on 50-80 year scales and interdecadal 16-23 year scales. However, relationships between rainfall variability and North Atlantic climate indices are highly contrasted depending on the region considered. Finally, the results of a mixed spectral/empirical orthogonal function analysis of mean sea level pressure on these co-oscillation time scales highlight not only NAO regimes but also other patterns, explaining a nonnegligible amount of variance during certain time periods.

Dieppois, Bastien; Durand, Alain; Fournier, Matthieu; Massei, Nicolas

2013-05-01

172

Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be combined in various ways to comprise focused, lively, accurate primers to what we all need to know about climate change. With college classrooms as our intended venue, we are looking at such topics as why the weather in your backyard tells you nothing about global climate change-but a good deal about climate; how tiny molecules warm the planet; how snowpack, drought, bark beetles, fire suppression, and wildfire interact as stress complexes; why (and where) women, children, and the poor are especially vulnerable to harm from climate change; what international policy negotiators argue about; what poets and artists can contribute to understanding and solving the climate problem; and why ecologists are worried about changes in the seasonal timing of natural events. We will describe what we have done and how we did it; offer a few tips to others who might wish to do something similar; and introduce our website.

Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

2011-12-01

173

Seasonal climate impacts on the grape harvest date in Burgundy (France)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In this study, we analyse the climatic impacts on the grape harvest date (GHD) in Burgundy (France) on interannual and decadal time scales. We affirm that the GHD is mainly influenced by the local April-to-August temperature (AAT) and provide the spatial expansion of this relationship. The spatial correlation pattern yields similar results for the instrumental and pre-instrumental period, indicating the consistency of the pre-instrumental field data with the instrumental GHD-spring/summer relationship. We find a previously undocumented second climate impact on the GHD. The winter temperature is significantly correlated with the GHD on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales and affects the GHD independently of the AAT. A multiple linear regression model, with AAT and decadal winter temperature as predictors, was found to be the best model to describe the GHD time series for the instrumental period. Stability tests of the correlations over time yield that both impacts on the GHD, AAT and decadal winter temperature, strengthen during the instrumental period. Using partial correlation analysis, we demonstrate that this is partly caused by a change in the winter-spring/summer temperature relationship. Summarising, the GHD is well suited to reconstruct interannual variations of the spring/summer temperature over large parts of Europe, even if the changing winter-spring/summer relation might affect the reconstruction in a second order. For decadal time scales, the December-to-August temperature shows the strongest relationship to the GHD and, therefore, proposes that the GHD can be used for European temperature reconstructions beyond the spring/summer season. Finally, we argue that our findings regarding the changed winter-spring/summer relation are relevant for physical and biological systems in several ways and should be analysed by other long-term proxy data and available model simulations.

Krieger, M.; Lohmann, G.; Laepple, T.

2011-04-01

174

Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands  

PubMed Central

Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

Ross, Pauline M.; Adam, Paul

2013-01-01

175

Inuit Observations of Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This video features changes in the land, sea, and animals that are being observed by the residents of Sachs Harbour, Northwest Territories, Canada many of whom hunt, trap, and fishbecause of their long-standing and intimate connection with their ecosystem. Scientists interview the residents and record their observations in order to deepen our understanding of climate change in the polar region. Background essay and discussion questions are included.

Wgbh/boston

176

Climate change and intertidal wetlands.  

PubMed

Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause-the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the "squeeze" experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change. PMID:24832670

Ross, Pauline M; Adam, Paul

2013-01-01

177

A common-sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably?  

PubMed Central

We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than “business-as-usual” scenarios.

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Glascoe, Jay; Ruedy, Reto

1998-01-01

178

60 FR 22078 - Reports; Availability, etc.: Climate Change; Second Assessment by Climate Change...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...FOUNDATION Reports; Availability, etc.: Climate Change; Second Assessment by Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel AGENCY: National...Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has prepared a draft Second...

1995-05-04

179

Risk management and climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The selection of climate policies should be an exercise in risk management reflecting the many relevant sources of uncertainty. Studies of climate change and its impacts rarely yield consensus on the distribution of exposure, vulnerability or possible outcomes. Hence policy analysis cannot effectively evaluate alternatives using standard approaches, such as expected utility theory and benefit-cost analysis. This Perspective highlights the value of robust decision-making tools designed for situations such as evaluating climate policies, where consensus on probability distributions is not available and stakeholders differ in their degree of risk tolerance. A broader risk-management approach enables a range of possible outcomes to be examined, as well as the uncertainty surrounding their likelihoods.

Kunreuther, Howard; Heal, Geoffrey; Allen, Myles; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Field, Christopher B.; Yohe, Gary

2013-05-01

180

Climate change and allergic disease.  

PubMed

Allergies are prevalent throughout the United States and impose a substantial quality of life and economic burden. The potential effect of climate change has an impact on allergic disorders through variability of aeroallergens, food allergens and insect-based allergic venoms. Data suggest allergies (ocular and nasal allergies, allergic asthma and sinusitis) have increased in the United States and that there are changes in allergies to stinging insect populations (vespids, apids and fire ants). The cause of this upward trend is unknown, but any climate change may induce augmentation of this trend; the subspecialty of allergy and immunology needs to be keenly aware of potential issues that are projected for the near and not so distant future. PMID:23065327

Bielory, Leonard; Lyons, Kevin; Goldberg, Robert

2012-12-01

181

Surface Ozone and Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surface ozone pollution will continue to be a concern in the coming decades as the effects of climate change couple with changing emissions to influence air quality. We analyze modeled surface ozone's seasonal cycle variability, long-term variability, and its correlation to atmospheric circulation using output from the GFDL coupled chemistry climate model (CM3) from CMIP5. We analyze the relationship between the jet stream and both ozone variability and mean ozone over the North Pacific. We also determine if ozone's seasonal cycle will shift in the future on a worldwide scale. We focus on surface ozone and 500mb zonal winds in order to analyze the large-scale circulation effects from 2006 to 2100. CMIP5 contains varying representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and we use three-member RCPs 4.5 and 4.5*, which are identical save the fact that 4.5* have fixed amounts of aerosols and ozone precursors at 2005 levels. The use of both 4.5 and 4.5* allows us to see effects due to changing emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx and which are due to climate change. Jet speed is found to correlate well with the maximum amount of decadal mean ozone in both 4.5 and 4.5* in the Pacific region. In addition, ozone's seasonal cycle across the globe peaks earlier in the year due to climate change alone, while decreasing emissions of ozone precursors is found to alter the amplitude of the cycle over industrial continental areas, causing the day of maximum ozone to occur months earlier long-term. The seasonal cycle change in 4.5* appears to be connected to the jet stream over the Pacific.

Gonzales, K.; Barnes, E. A.

2013-12-01

182

Public Perceptions of Climate Change: A \\  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper, we examine for a sample of Los Angeles residents their willingness to pay to prevent significant climate change. We employ a frac- tional factorial design in which various climate change sce narios differing in ways consistent with existing variation in climate are pres ented to respon- dents. These are contrasted to respondents' current climat e before willing-

Richard A. Berk; Robert G. Fovell

1998-01-01

183

1000 years of climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solar activity has been observed to vary on decadal and centennial time scales. Recent evidence (Bond, 2002) points to a major semi-periodic variation of approximately 1,500 yrs. For this reason, and because high resolution proxy records are limited to the past thousand years or so, assessing the role of the sun's variability on climate change over this time f ame has received much attention. A pressingr application of these assessments is the attempt to separate the role of the sun from that of various anthropogenic forcings in the past century and a half. This separation is complicated by the possible existence of natural variability other than solar, and by the fact that the time-dependence of solar and anthropogenic forcings is very similar over the past hundred years or so. It has been generally assumed that solar forcing is direct, i.e. changes in sun's irradiance. However, evidence has been put forth suggesting that there exist various additional indirect forcings that could be as large as or even exceed direct forcing (modulation of cosmic ray - induced cloudiness, UV- induced stratospheric ozone change s, or oscillator -driven changes in the Pacific Ocean). Were such forcings to be large, they could account for nearly all 20th Century warming, relegating anthropogenic effects to a minor role. Determination of climate change over the last thousand years offers perhaps the best way to assess the magnitude of total solar forcing, thus allowing its comparison with that of anthropogenic sources. Perhaps the best proxy records for climate variation in the past 1,000 yrs have been variations in temperat ure sensitive tree rings (Briffa and Osborne, 2002). A paucity of such records in the Southern Hemisphere has largely limited climate change determinations to the subtropical NH. Two problems with tree rings are that the rings respond to temperature differently with the age of the tree, and record largely the warm, growing season only. It appears that both these problems have been adequately solved although caution is warranted. A promising adjunct to tree rings is actual measurement of temperatures in boreholes. Inversion of such records gives low frequency temperatures that are potentially more accurate than any proxy- derived ones. All these records give a fairly consistent picture of at least one major warming and cooling extreme (Medieval Warming Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Many modeling efforts using direct solar forcing have been done. These typically employ proxy data (sunspot number and variations in Be-10 and C -14 calibrated by satellite observations) for changes in solar forcing, and give the same general picture-- that of a substantial warming 1,000 yrs ago (MWP) followed by cooling that was particularly marked in the late 17th and early 19th centuries (LIA). The resulting amplitude of temperature change between MWP and LIA agrees well with paleo-temperature reconstructions and suggests that solar forcing alone is inadequate to account for more than about half the 20th century warming (Lean et al 1995, Crowley and Lowry 2000). Since these quantitatively reproduce climate variations in the past 1000 years, the role of indirect solar forcing is inferred to be small but may be important (Lean and Rind 2001). Gerard Bond, Bernd Kromer, Juerg Beer, Raimund Muscheler, Michael N. Evans, William Showers, Sharon Hoffmann, Rusty Lotti-Bond, Irka Hajdas, and Georges Bonani, (2001) Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene,Science 294: 2130-2136 Briffa and Osborne, (2002) Blowing Hot and Cold, Science 295, 2227-2228. Lean, J., Beer, J., and Bradley, R., (1995) Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett.., 22, 3195-3198. Crowley ,T., (2000) Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years, Science,289, 270- 277. Lean and Rind, (2001), Earth's Response to a Variable Sun, Science, 292, 234-236.

Keller, C.

184

A Common-Sense Climate Index: Is Climate Changing Noticeably?  

Microsoft Academic Search

We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent

James Hansen; Makiko Sato; Jay Glascoe; Reto Ruedy

1998-01-01

185

Ecological Consequences of Recent Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global climate change is frequently considered a major conservation threat. The Earth's climate has already warmed by 0.5 8 C over the past century, and recent studies show that it is possible to detect the ef- fects of a changing climate on ecological systems. This suggests that global change may be a current and fu- ture conservation threat. Changes in

John P. McCarty

2001-01-01

186

Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation in Forestry  

Microsoft Academic Search

Current changes in climate are already affecting forest species. Future climate change will bring greater changes in range of occurrence, forest disturbance and growth rates. These changes in turn will affect society's ability to use forest resources. We already take account of climate in forest management; in the future we will have to apply these techniques with a greater intensity

David L. Spittlehouse

187

Ecological Restoration and Global Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

There is an increasing consensus that global climate change occurs and that potential changes in climate are likely to have important regional consequences for biota and ecosystems. Ecological restoration, including (re)- afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded land, is included in the array of potential human responses to cli- mate change. However, the implications of climate change for the broader practice

James A. Harris; Richard J. Hobbs; Eric Higgs; James Aronson

2006-01-01

188

Novel communities from climate change  

PubMed Central

Climate change is generating novel communities composed of new combinations of species. These result from different degrees of species adaptations to changing biotic and abiotic conditions, and from differential range shifts of species. To determine whether the responses of organisms are determined by particular species traits and how species interactions and community dynamics are likely to be disrupted is a challenge. Here, we focus on two key traits: body size and ecological specialization. We present theoretical expectations and empirical evidence on how climate change affects these traits within communities. We then explore how these traits predispose species to shift or expand their distribution ranges, and associated changes on community size structure, food web organization and dynamics. We identify three major broad changes: (i) Shift in the distribution of body sizes towards smaller sizes, (ii) dominance of generalized interactions and the loss of specialized interactions, and (iii) changes in the balance of strong and weak interaction strengths in the short term. We finally identify two major uncertainties: (i) whether large-bodied species tend to preferentially shift their ranges more than small-bodied ones, and (ii) how interaction strengths will change in the long term and in the case of newly interacting species.

Lurgi, Miguel; Lopez, Bernat C.; Montoya, Jose M.

2012-01-01

189

Oceans' Role in Climate Variability and Climate Change.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

In view of the significant impacts of climate change, the question of whether the warming trend induced by the greenhouse effect has actually been detected is addressed. Natural climatic variability over various time scales is first illustrated, such as t...

L. A. Mysak C. A. Lin

1989-01-01

190

Climate benefits of changing diet  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little\\u000a attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land\\u000a use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision

Elke Stehfest; Lex Bouwman; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Michel G. J. den Elzen; Bas Eickhout; Pavel Kabat

2009-01-01

191

Biodiversity Challenges with Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a Genetic resources, mainly in ex situ genebanks, have an important role in the adaptation of agriculture to climate change. There is an urgent need to collect\\u000a traditional landraces where they are still grown across diverse environments, to access genes with tolerance of abiotic stresses\\u000a and resistance to biotic stresses. The genetic diversity in wild relatives of crops is also under

Robert Redden; Michael Materne; Ahmad Maqbool; Angela Freeman

192

NASA Nice Climate Change Education  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate change education can be beneficial to future learners and general public. The main scope is to increase the amount of STEM knowledge throughout the nations scientific literacy as we are using the platform of climate change. Federal entities which may include but not limited to National Security Agency and the Department of Homeland Security and Management will serve as resources partners for this common goal of having a more knowledgeable technological savvy and scientific literate society. The presentation will show that incorporating these best practices into elementary and early childhood education undergraduate programs will assist with increasing a enhance scientific literate society. As a measurable outcome have a positive impact on instructional effectiveness of future teachers. Their successfully preparing students in meeting the standards of the Common Core Initiative will attempt to measure across the curriculum uniformly.

Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

2013-12-01

193

Communicating Uncertainties on Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The term of uncertainty in common language is confusing since it is related in one of its most usual sense to what cannot be known in advance or what is subject to doubt. Its definition in mathematics is unambiguous but not widely shared. It is thus difficult to communicate on this notion through media to a wide public. From its scientific basis to the impact assessment, climate change issue is subject to a large number of sources of uncertainties. In this case, the definition of the term is close to its mathematical sense, but the diversity of disciplines involved in the analysis process implies a great diversity of approaches of the notion. Faced to this diversity of approaches, the issue of communicating uncertainties on climate change is thus a great challenge. It is also complicated by the diversity of the targets of the communication on climate change, from stakeholders and policy makers to a wide public. We will present the process chosen by the IPCC in order to communicate uncertainties in its assessment reports taking the example of the guidance note to lead authors of the fourth assessment report. Concerning the communication of uncertainties to a wide public, we will give some examples aiming at illustrating how to avoid the above-mentioned ambiguity when dealing with this kind of communication.

Planton, S.

2009-09-01

194

Past and Current Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

2014-05-01

195

RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and economic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents nine fundamental principles that ...

196

What do Squirrels know about Climate Change?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

What do Squirrels know about Climate Change? This activity was developed during the Teaching Climate Change from the Geological Record workshop, held in August 2010.Contributed by: Beth Norman, Allan Ashworth, and ...

197

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR FISHERIES  

EPA Science Inventory

Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. hese include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. or fisheries resources, policy questions address eff...

198

Strategic Threat of Inevitable Climate Change.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The world's climate is changing. Scientific evidence clearly demonstrates an unprecedented rate of global warming is taking place. This warming is serving as a driving force behind changes to the global climate. Leaders across the globe are confronted wit...

W. D. Conner

2013-01-01

199

Mitigating Climate Change in China and Ethiopia  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this video segment adapted from Hope in a Changing Climate, learn how an environmentally devastated ecosystem has been restored, benefiting both the local economy and global efforts to fight climate change.

Foundation, Wgbh E.

2010-11-30

200

Using Climate Change as a Teaching Tool.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Points out that climate change is an ideal pedagogical tool for encouraging a number of desirable outcomes in environmental education. Climate change can be used to teach about complex systems. (Contains 16 references.) (DDR)

Dahlberg, Steven

2001-01-01

201

Climate Change Impact on Forestry in India  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a Climate change represents a significant threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. Climate change is expected\\u000a to have also impacts on forest ecology. It is thus important to make assessments of possible impacts of climate change on\\u000a forests in different regions to allow respective governments and communities to adapt. Climate change is projected to affect\\u000a individual organisms, populations, species distributions

Geetanjali Kaushik; M. A. Khalid

202

Climate change and the global harvest  

Microsoft Academic Search

This book summarizes state-of-the-art knowledge on the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture. The book begins by introducing the nonspecialist to the causes of climate change, and reviews the main climate change drivers and impacts. It then goes on to review all major aspects of climate change impact on agriculture in detail. The scope is very broad indeed--the authors

Cynthia Rosenzweig; Daniel Hillel

1998-01-01

203

The impact of Late Quaternary climate oscillations on the Golo River system, Corsica, France  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Golo River system, Corsica, France, is an excellent natural laboratory to study the impact of external forcing on fluvial landscapes and stratigraphy, because of its small size, the absence of significant floodplains, and the large climatic and eustatic sea level fluctuations in the region during the Late Quaternary. We have investigated the geomorphological evolution of the Golo catchment and coastal plain during the Late Quaternary adopting an integrated stratigraphic, geomorphological, and modeling approach. First, we built a 4D geomorphological and stratigraphic model of the Golo coastal plain by acquiring and interpreting new geophysical, boreholes, luminescence and radiocarbon ages, and geomorphological data. Then, we compared the 4D model to the output of a spatially-lumped numerical model, PaCMod (Forzoni et al., 2013), which calculates sediment storage and reworking in a catchment, and sediment flux from the catchment outlet. Our results indicate two distinct stages of alluvial fan development on the Golo coastal plain during MIS4 and middle MIS3, respectively. Such accumulation of coarse sediments was induced by high sediment supply and low water discharges, induced by dry-cold climatic conditions and low vegetation cover. Incision and terrace formation occurred in the Early MIS3, as a result of increased water discharges, and in MIS2, when sea level dropped below the shelf edge. During the Late Glacial transgression and Holocene sea level high stand, fluvial and shallow marine sediments progressively filled in the MIS2 valley in the Golo coastal plain, while the high discharges-transport capacity caused further incision in the upper reaches of the catchment. PaCMod simulations showed that high sediment flux pulses were generated in the catchment during deglaciation, at the transition from cold-dry stadials to warm-wet interstadials, as a result of catchment geomorphological memory. Our results suggest that the geomorphological evolution of the Golo coastal plain was a complex combination of (i) fluvial-alluvial fan dynamics and (ii) eustatic sea level. The first mainly influenced the catchment and the upper coastal plain, whereas the latter predominantly affected the lower coastal plain and the shelf. Hence, different parts of the fluvial system preserve the record of different forcing mechanism. Finally, PaCMod simulations showed a non-linear relation between climatic changes and fluvial system response on a secular-millennial timescale, and evidenced how such response is importantly affected by the wavelength of climatic oscillations. References Forzoni A., de Jager G., Storms J.E.A. 2013. A spatially lumped model to investigate downstream sediment flux propagation within a fluvial catchment. Geomorphology 193, 65-80

Forzoni, A.; Storms, J.; Moreau, J.; Jouet, G.; de Jager, G.; Reimann, T.

2013-12-01

204

Ocean Circulation and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

While the mainstream media has provided extensive coverage of El Nino and La Nina -- the warmer and colder phases of a perpetual oscillation in the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean -- little attention has been paid to deep-water phases. Several recent publications in leading scientific journals (Science and Nature) are adding new dimensions to the link between large-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Researchers Dr. Wallace Broecker and researchers at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (see the November 5, 1999 issue of Science and the November 9, 1999 issue of The New York Times) found that deep ocean currents, operating as an oceanic "conveyor belt," may hold clues to climate change. The conveyor belt works by transporting warm, increasingly salty, ocean water from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean; eventually, the warm water current runs into a cold water current, causing the warm water to cool quickly and sink, due to greater density. In turn, this creates a "sub-surface countercurrent which carries the cool water back to the Indian and Pacific oceans" (2). In this week's issue of Nature (December 2, 1999), German scientist Carsten Ruhlemann and colleagues provide new evidence that the thermohaline circulation has triggered rapid climate change events in the past, including the last deglaciation. In addition, the current issue of Science Times (December 7, 1999) highlights the connection between thawing Arctic ice sheets and oceanic currents. This week's In The News focuses on ocean circulation patterns and climate change. The seven resources provide background information and specific links to related resources.

Payne, Laura X.

205

Adaptation to climate change in forest management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation in forestry is sustainable forest management that includes a climate change focus. Climate change over the next 100 years is expected to have significant impacts on forest ecosystems. The forestry community needs to evaluate the long-term effects of climate change on forests and determine what the community might do now and in the future to respond to this threat.

David L. Spittlehouse; Robert B. Stewart

2003-01-01

206

Getting to the Core of Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This is a lab about evidence for past climate change as captured in ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Students investigate climate changes going back thousands of years by graphing and analyzing ice core data from both Greenland and Antarctica. They use information about natural and human-caused changes in the atmosphere to formulate predictions about the Earth's climate.

2005-01-01

207

Climate change and agriculture in developing countries  

Microsoft Academic Search

Most analysts agree that the poorest countries` agricultures are likely to be the most vulnerable to-and least capable of adapting to-climate change or other environmental disruptions. Research has only recently begun to assess what the likely impacts of climate change on developing countries` agricultures may be, how these agricultures might adapt to climate change, and how policies might be designed

John M. Antle

1995-01-01

208

Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Future climate change will affect society's ability to use forest resources. We take account of climate in forest management and this will help us adapt to the effects of climate change on forests. However, society will have to adjust to how forests adapt by changing expectations for the use of forest resources because management can only influence the timing and

David L. Spittlehouse

2005-01-01

209

Climate Change: Fitting the Pieces Together  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Earth Gauge and the COMET Program have designed a two-hour course for that provides a basic overview of climate change science and resources to answer common questions about climate change. Although initially designed for broadcast meteorologists, the course is a good primer for anyone interested in climate change.

2009-01-01

210

Climate Change and U.S. Interests  

Microsoft Academic Search

The public policy debate on the appropriate American response to climate change is now in full swing. There are no longer significant voices disputing that climate change is real or that it is primarily the result of human activity. The issue today is what the United States should do about climate change given the risks the country faces and the

Andrew T Guzman; Jody Freeman

2009-01-01

211

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Producing Regional Climate Change Projections for Climate Impacts Studies  

Microsoft Academic Search

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is constructing projections of regional climate change over the coterminous United States and Canada in order to provide climate change information at decision relevant scales. A major goal of NARCCAP is to estimate uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate by using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within multiple

R. W. Arritt; L. Mearns; C. Anderson; D. Bader; E. Buonomo; D. Caya; P. Duffy; N. Elguindi; F. Giorgi; W. Gutowski; I. Held; A. Nunes; R. Jones; R. Laprise; L. R. Leung; D. Middleton; W. Moufouma-Okia; D. Nychka; Y. Qian; J. Roads; S. Sain; M. Snyder; L. Sloan; E. Takle

2006-01-01

212

Climate Change in Small Islands  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isolated islands are especially vulnerable to climate change. But their climate is generally not well reproduced in GCMs, due to their small size and complex topography. Here, results from a new generation of climate models, forced by scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 of greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosol concentrations, established by the IPCC for its fifth report, are used to characterize the climate of the islands of Azores and Madeira, and its response to the ongoing global warming. The methodology developed here uses the new global model EC-Earth, data from ERA-Interim reanalysis and results from an extensive set of simulations with the WRF research model, using, for the first time, a dynamic approach for the regionalization of global fields at sufficiently fine resolutions, in which the effect of topographical complexity is explicitly represented. The results reviewed here suggest increases in temperature above 1C in the middle of the XXI century in Azores and Madeira, reaching values higher than 2.5C at the end of the century, accompanied by a reduction in the annual rainfall of around 10% in the Azores, which could reach 30% in Madeira. These changes are large enough to justify much broader impacts on island ecosystems and the human population. The results show the advantage of using the proposed methodology, in particular for an adequate representation of the precipitation regime in islands with complex topography, even suggesting the need for higher resolutions in future work. The WRF results are also compared against two different downscaling techniques using an air mass transformation model and a modified version of the upslope precipitation model of Smith and Barstad (2005).

Tomé, Ricardo; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Brito de Azevedo, Eduardo; Teixeira, Miguel A. C.

2014-05-01

213

Climate Reel: Global Climate Change - NASA's Eyes on the Earth  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This website is a collection of NASA's best videos and visualizations of climate change. The Top 10 Climate Movies are featured. Other videos, animated visuals and images are listed by themes: Life on Earth, Water, The Land, The Atmosphere, The Sun, Frozen Places, and Climate Data. Links to complete transcripts are available.

214

Oceans Effect on Weather and Climate: Changing Climate  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This Science Object is the fourth of four Science Objects in the Ocean's Effect on Weather and Climate SciPack. It explores how Earth's climate has changed in the past and how it may change in the future. Climate change may occur as a result of changes in Earth's surface, atmosphere, and oceans. Such changes may be abrupt (such as gas and dust from volcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts) or may occur over very long times (such as changes in landscape or increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere). Even relatively small changes in atmospheric or ocean content and/or temperature can have widespread effects on climate if the change lasts long enough. Since the industrial revolution, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased at an unprecedented rate. Though climate change and changes in the composition of the oceans and atmosphere are natural, present modifications far exceed natural rates. Learning Outcomes:� Explain the role that phenomena such as volcanic eruptions or asteroid impact play in changing climate.� Describe the type of atmospheric conditions and weather related data that can be obtained from ice core and deep-sea sediment records.� Describe how a small change in the content of oceans and atmosphere (such as a rise in carbon dioxide levels) can have significant impacts on global climate.� Describe human activity that has an affect on climate.

National Science Teachers Association (NSTA)

2007-03-28

215

Towards a Psychology of Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a This paper gives a structured overview about possible contributions of psychology to the climate change debate. As a starting\\u000a point, it assumes that understanding people’s behaviour related to climate change (mitigation and adaptation) is crucial for\\u000a successfully dealing with the future challenges. Climate change-related behaviour includes voting, support for climate lobbyists,\\u000a individual consumption, adapting new technology, and taking adaptive actions.

Christian A. Kloeckner

216

Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This interactive website features many great tools that are designed to keep your students informed and up to date on whats going on with our planet and its climate. There is a brief history on our climate, and the recent changes that the planet has been experiencing. The effects of global climate change are introduced, and the different indicators of climate change, such as rising sea levels, global surface temperature, and the ozone hole, are discussed and explained.

Conway, Erik; Jackson, Randal; Jenkins, Amber; Sullivant, Rosemary

2010-01-01

217

Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa  

Microsoft Academic Search

Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from

U. Anber

2009-01-01

218

Climate Change: A Controlled Experiment  

SciTech Connect

Researchers are altering temperature, carbon dioxide and precipitation levels across plots of forests, grasses and crops to see how plant life responds. Warmer temperatures and higher CO{sub 2} concentrations generally result in more leaf growth or crop yield, but these factors can also raise insect infestation and weaken plants ability to ward off pests and disease. Future field experiments that can manipulate all three conditions at once will lead to better models of how long-term climate changes will affect ecosystems worldwide.

Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL; Strahl, Maya [ORNL

2010-01-01

219

Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The American Geophysical Union (AGU), as a scientific organization devoted to research on the Earth and space sciences, provides current scientific information to the public on issues pertinent to geophysics. The Council of the AGU approved a position statement on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases in December 1998. The statement, together with a short summary of the procedures that were followed in its preparation, review, and adoption were published in the February 2, 1999 issue of Eos ([AGU, 1999]. The present article reviews scientific understanding of this issue as presented in peer-reviewed publications that serves as the underlying basis of the position statement.

Ledley, Tamara S.; Sundquist, Eric; Schwartz, Stephen; Hall, Dorothy K.; Fellows, Jack; Killeen, Timothy

1999-01-01

220

World Wildlife Fund: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site provides information about the World Wildlife Fund's (WWF) position on climate change and its efforts to address the issue. There are links to information about the causes and potential risks of global warming, to some suggested solutions for energy, business and industry, and public policy solutions. There are also suggestions for actions that individuals can take themselves to conserve energy, as well as links to news articles on the issue. Other links provide access to press materials, to a blog, and to conference reports and a brochure describing WWF's activities on behalf of the issue.

221

The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We present here a dynamical method for modelling temporal and geographical variations in ammonia emissions in regional scale Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs) and Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs). The method is based on the meteorology in the models and gridded inventories. We use the dynamical method to investigating the spatio-temporal variability of the ammonia emissions across part of Europe and study how these emissions are related to geographical and year-to-year variations in atmospheric temperature alone. For simplicity we focus on the emission from a storage related to a Danish standard pig stable with 1000 animals and display how the emission from this source category vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes we also evaluate the potential future changes in the emission by including temperature projections from an ensemble of climate models. The results points towards four overall issues: (1) Emissions can easily vary with 20% by changing geographical location within a country due to overall variations in climate. Largest uncertainties are seen for large countries like UK, Germany and France. (2) Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20%. (3) Climate change will in general increase the emissions with 0-40%, in central to northern Europe. (4) Gradients in existing emission inventories that are seen along country borders (e.g. between UK and France), can be reduced by using a dynamical methodology for calculating emissions. Acting together these four issues can cause substantial uncertainties in emission. Emissions are generally considered among the largest uncertainties in the model calculations with CTM and CCM models. Efforts to reduce uncertainties are therefore highly relevant. It is therefore recommended that both CCMs and CTMs implement a dynamical methodology for simulating ammonia emissions in a similar way as for biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOCs) - a method that has been used for more than a decade in CTMs.

Skjøth, C. A.; Geels, C.

2012-09-01

222

Climate Change in the Preservice Teacher's Mind  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Given the recent media attention on the public’s shift in opinion toward being more skeptical about climate change, 154 preservice teachers’ participated in an intervention in an elementary science methods course. Findings indicated that students developed a deeper level of concern about climate change. Their perceptions on the evidence for climate change, consensus of scientists, impacts of climate change, and influence of politics also changed significantly. The curriculum and instruction appear to be an important factor in increasing understanding of climate change and developing perceptions more aligned to those of climate scientists. More broadly, this study provides preliminary support for the value of providing a careful framing of the topic of climate change within the context of science methods courses.

Lambert, Julie L.; Bleicher, Robert E.

2013-10-01

223

The ocean and climate change policy  

Microsoft Academic Search

The ocean plays a major role in regulating Earth's climate system, and is highly vulnerable to climate change, but continues to receive little attention in the ongoing policymaking designed to mitigate and adapt to global climate change. There are numerous ways to consider the ocean more significantly when developing these policies, several of which offer the co-benefits of biodiversity protection

Grantly Galland; Ellycia Harrould-Kolieb; Dorothée Herr

2012-01-01

224

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) HOMEPAGE  

EPA Science Inventory

The IPCC is divided into three Working Groups. Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. Working Group II assesses the vulnerability to climate change of, and the negative and positive impacts for, ecological systems, socio-economic...

225

Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change. The process of adaptation is not new; the idea of incorporating future climate risk into policy-making is. While our understanding of climate change and its potential impacts has become clearer, the availability of practical guidance on adaptation has not kept pace.

Bo Lim; Erika Spanger-Siegfried; Ian Burton; Eizabeth Malone; Saleemul Huq

2004-01-01

226

Climate Change Vulnerability and Policy Support  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate scientists note that the effects of climate change vary regionally. Citizen willingness to absorb the costs of adaptation and mitigation policies may correspond with these place-specific effects. Geographic information systems (GIS) analytic techniques are used to map and measure survey respondents' climate change risk at various levels of spatial resolution and precision. Spatial data are used to analyze multiple

Sammy Zahran; Samuel D. Brody; Himanshu Grover; Arnold Vedlitz

2006-01-01

227

Risks, opportunities and adaptation to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and eco- nomic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and for exploiting beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents 9 fundamenal principles that should be considered when designing adaptation policy, for example, a sound understanding of the potential regional effects of climate on

Joel D. Scheraga; Anne E. Grambsch

1998-01-01

228

The physical science behind climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

For a scientist studying climate change, 'eureka' moments are unusually rare. Instead progress is generally made by a painstaking piecing together of evidence from every new temperature measurement, satellite sounding or climate-model experiment. Data get checked and rechecked, ideas tested over and over again. Do the observations fit the predicted changes? Could there be some alternative explanation? Good climate scientists,

William Collins; Robert Colman; James Haywood; Martin R. Manning; Philip Mote

2007-01-01

229

Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes  

Microsoft Academic Search

One of the most controversial conclusions to emerge from many of the first generation of integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate policy was the perceived economic optimality of negligible near-term abatement of greenhouse gases. Typically, such studies were conducted using smoothly varying climate change scenarios or impact responses. Abrupt changes observed in the climatic record and documented in current models

Michael D. Mastrandrea; Stephen H. Schneider

2001-01-01

230

Is climate change affecting human health?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

First principles suggest that climate change is affecting human health, based on what is understood about the relationships between the mean and variability of temperature, precipitation, and other weather variables and climate-sensitive health outcomes, and the magnitude of climate change that has occurred. However, the complexity of these relationships and the multiple drivers of climate-sensitive health outcomes makes the detection and attribution of changing disease patterns to climate change very challenging. Nevertheless, efforts to do so are vital for informing policy and for prioritizing adaptation and mitigation options.

Ebi, Kristie L.

2013-09-01

231

Intracontinental Miocene: Climate and paleolake volumes in the Forez Basin, France (Part I)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

European Tertiary sedimentary basins as the Forez Graben, France, are potential records of continental paleoclimates. The Forez Basin hosts deposited and precipitated sediments of Oligocene to Miocene age. Geochemical data of carbonates indicate strictly continental origin starting at Eocene-Oligocene with tropical to temperate climate conditions, then during the Middle Miocene a temperate continental climate prevails. Combining volume of calcite deposits and their geochemical data, volumes of large lakes and evaporation/inflow ratios were reconstructed. The Late Miocene in the Forez Graben has been affected by dissolution and secondary precipitation of calcite, barite, which is the result of wetter and colder climate conditions. These lake volume calculations represent the first estimation of large lakes volumes in Western Europe during the Miocene.

Renac, C.; Michon, G.; Gonord, H.; Gerbe, M.-C.

2013-04-01

232

[Climate change and Kyoto protocol].  

PubMed

Due to industrial revolution and the heavy use of fossil fuels, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased dramatically during the last hundred years, and this has lead to an increase in mean global temperature. The environmental consequences of this are: the melting of the ice caps, an increase in mean sea-levels, catastrophic events such as floodings, hurricanes and earthquakes, changes to the animal and vegetable kingdoms, a growth in vectors and bacteria in water thus increasing the risk of infectious diseases and damage to agriculture. The toxic effects of the pollution on human health are both acute and chronic. The Kyoto Protocol is an important step in the campaign against climatic changes but it is not sufficient. A possible solution might be for the States which produce the most of pollution to adopt a better political stance for the environment and to use renewable resources for the production of energy. PMID:19798904

Ergasti, G; Pippia, V; Murzilli, G; De Luca D'Alessandro, E

2009-01-01

233

Climate Kids: A Student's Guide to Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

A product of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), this website features sections entitled "Learn the Basics," "See the Impacts," "Think Like a Scientist," and "Be Part of the Solution" through which participants gain a deeper understanding of climate change issues. This resource is part of the Climate Kids website, a NASA education resource featuring articles, videos, images and games focused on the science of climate change.

234

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?  

PubMed

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change - in the sense referred to here - imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation. PMID:14558906

Hulme, Mike

2003-09-15

235

America's Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change (Invited)  

Microsoft Academic Search

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond to climate change. This suite of activities included a panel report on Advancing the Science of Climate Change. The report concludes that a strong, credible body of scientific evidence shows that

P. A. Matson; T. Dietz; I. Kraucunas

2010-01-01

236

Are abrupt climate changes predictable?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

It is taken for granted that the limited predictability in the initial value problem, the weather prediction, and the predictability of the statistics are two distinct problems. Lorenz (1975) dubbed this predictability of the first and the second kind respectively. Predictability of the first kind in a chaotic dynamical system is limited due to the well-known critical dependence on initial conditions. Predictability of the second kind is possible in an ergodic system, where either the dynamics is known and the phase space attractor can be characterized by simulation or the system can be observed for such long times that the statistics can be obtained from temporal averaging, assuming that the attractor does not change in time. For the climate system the distinction between predictability of the first and the second kind is fuzzy. This difficulty in distinction between predictability of the first and of the second kind is related to the lack of scale separation between fast and slow components of the climate system. The non-linear nature of the problem furthermore opens the possibility of multiple attractors, or multiple quasi-steady states. As the ice-core records show, the climate has been jumping between different quasi-stationary climates, stadials and interstadials through the Dansgaard-Oechger events. Such a jump happens very fast when a critical tipping point has been reached. The question is: Can such a tipping point be predicted? This is a new kind of predictability: the third kind. If the tipping point is reached through a bifurcation, where the stability of the system is governed by some control parameter, changing in a predictable way to a critical value, the tipping is predictable. If the sudden jump occurs because internal chaotic fluctuations, noise, push the system across a barrier, the tipping is as unpredictable as the triggering noise. In order to hint at an answer to this question, a careful analysis of the high temporal resolution NGRIP isotope record is presented. The result of the analysis points to a fundamental limitation in predictability of the third kind. Reference: P. D. Ditlevsen and S. Johnsen, "Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking", Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 2010

Ditlevsen, Peter

2013-04-01

237

Introduction to Earth's Dynamically Changing Climate  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this self-paced tutorial, examine evidence of climate change from different parts of the Earthâs system and consider what it means to live on a planet with a dynamically changing climate. The resource includes multimedia resources such as video clips of local impacts of climate change in the Arctic and Samoa, data visualization exercise featuring digital resources on climate.nasa.gov, and an interview with NASA climate scientist Dr. Gavin Schmidt, a discussion on teaching using data, and an interactive quiz. Introduction to the Earth's Dynamically Changing Climate is the first of a series of ten self-paced professional development modules providing opportunities for teachers to learn about climate change through first-hand data exploration. Activities and resources that can be employed in the classroom are featured.

238

Economic Consequences Of Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims.

Szlávik, János

2009-07-01

239

Statistical principles for climate change studies  

SciTech Connect

Predictions of climate change due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations have been an ongoing arena for debate and discussion. A major difficulty in early detection of changes resulting from anthropogenic forcing of the climate system is that the natural climate variability overwhelms the climate change signal in observed data. Statistical principles underlying fingerprint methods for detecting a climate change signal above natural climate variations and attributing the potential signal to specific anthropogenic forcings are discussed. The climate change problem is introduced through an exposition of statistical issues in modeling the climate signal and natural climate variability. The fingerprint approach is shown to be analogous to optimal hypothesis testing procedures from the classical statistics literature. The statistical formulation of the fingerprint scheme suggests new insights into the implementation of the techniques for climate change studies. In particular, the statistical testing ideas are exploited to introduce alternative procedures within the fingerprint model for attribution of climate change and to shed light on practical issues in applying the fingerprint detection strategies.

Levine, R.A. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States). Div. of Statistics] [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States). Div. of Statistics; Berliner, L.M. [Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States)] [Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); [National Inst. of Statistical Sciences, Columbus, OH (United States)

1999-02-01

240

Covering Climate Change in Wikipedia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The first hit in an internet search for "global warming" using any of the three leading search engines (Google, Bing, or Yahoo) is the article "Global warming" in the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. The article garners about half a million page views per month. In addition to the site's visibility with the public, Wikipedia's articles on climate-related topics are widely referenced by policymakers, media outlets, and academia. Despite the site's strong influence on public understanding of science, few geoscientists actively participate in Wikipedia, with the result that the community that edits these articles is mostly composed of individuals with little or no expertise in the topic at hand. In this presentation we discuss how geoscientists can help shape public understanding of science by contributing to Wikipedia. Although Wikipedia prides itself on being "the encyclopedia that anyone can edit," the site has policies regarding contributions and behavior that can be pitfalls for newcomers. This presentation is intended as a guide for the geoscience community in contributing to information about climate change in this widely-used reference.

Arritt, R. W.; Connolley, W.; Ramjohn, I.; Schulz, S.; Wickert, A. D.

2010-12-01

241

America's Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond to climate change. This suite of activities included a panel report on Advancing the Science of Climate Change. The report concludes that a strong, credible body of scientific evidence shows that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute both by continuing to improve understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change, and by improving and expanding the options available to limit the magnitude of climate change and adapt to its impacts. To make this possible, the nation needs a comprehensive, integrated, and flexible climate change research enterprise that is closely linked with action-oriented programs at all levels. The report recommends that a single federal entity or program be given the authority and resources to coordinate a national research effort integrated across many disciplines and aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. The U.S. Global Change Research Program, established in 1990, could fulfill this role, but it would need to address weaknesses in the current program and form partnerships with action-oriented programs at all levels. A comprehensive climate observing system, improved climate models and other analytical tools, investment in human capital, and better linkages between research and decision making are also essential for advancing the science of climate change.

Matson, P. A.; Dietz, T.; Kraucunas, I.

2010-12-01

242

Atmospheric Composition and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This experiment has student teams comparing a sample of room air with one of the greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, or methane - and observing the relative effectiveness of the gases in trapping infrared (IR) radiation. The activity requires an IR heat source, such as a heat lamp, two 2-liter beverage bottles, #4 one hole rubber stoppers, and a thermometer or temperature probes. Nitrous oxide can be obtained from a dentist, methane from gas jets in a chemistry lab, and CO² can be generated using vinegar and baking soda. Students compare the heating and cooling curves in data they collect. The investigation is supported by the textbook, Climate Change, part of Global System Science, an interdisciplinary course for high school students that emphasizes how scientists from a wide variety of fields work together to understand significant problems of global impact.

243

Chemistry implications of climate change  

SciTech Connect

Since preindustrial times, the concentrations of a number of key greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}) and the nitric oxides (N{sub 2}O) have increased. Additionally, the concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols have also increased during the same time period. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase temperature, while the aerosols tend to have a net cooling effect. Taking both of these effects into account, the current best scientific estimate is that the global average surface temperature is expected to increase by 2{degrees}C between the years 1990 to 2100. A climate change if this magnitude will both directly and indirectly impact atmospheric chemistry. For example, many important tropospheric reactions have a temperature dependence (either Arrhenius or otherwise). Thus, if temperature increase, reaction rates will also increase.

Atherton, C.S.

1997-05-01

244

Climate Change: Environmental Literacy and Inquiry  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Climate Change is a technology-supported middle school science inquiry curriculum. This curriculum focuses on essential climate literacy principles with an emphasis on weather and climate, Earth system energy balance, greenhouse gases, paleoclimatology, and how human activities influence climate change. Students use geospatial information technology tools (Google Earth), Web-based tools (including an interactive carbon calculator and geologic timeline), and inquiry-based lab activities to investigate important climate change topics. Climate Change is aligned to the Essential Principles of Climate Literacy in addition to national science and environmental education standards. The unit takes 21 days which include pretest and post test. Assessments for each learning activity are available using the following login and password: Login: eliteacher Password: 87dja92

245

COP4: International Conference on Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This week's In The News highlights a critical international conference on climate change, the Fourth Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, currently being held (November 2-13) in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The Convention on Climate Change, signed and ratified by over 175 countries, is one of a series of recent international agreements dedicated to reducing anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change. Although the detection of climate change is a complex and contentious issue among scientists (and is generally refuted by industries afraid of the regulatory consequences), the potential impacts to the earth's ecosystems cannot be ignored. Thus, the Convention's "ultimate objective" is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level -- and with enough time -- to prevent "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the atmosphere." The nine sites discussed provide background information, resources, and information related to COP4 and to climate change.

Nannapaneni, Sujani.

246

India's National Action Plan on Climate Change  

PubMed Central

Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture – further endangering food security – to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to mitigate and adapt to climate change on June 30, 2008, almost a year after it was announced. The NAPCC runs through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008. This article briefly reviews the plan and opinion about it from different experts and organizations.

Pandve, Harshal T.

2009-01-01

247

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region's attitude towards climate change science, policy, and the stances taken by other regions on climate change. The professor will provide a model of integrative research using the U.S. as a focus, and on discussion days, prompt a sort of United Nations discussion on each of these topics with the intention of having the students look at climate change from a different point of view that contrasts their current U.S.-centric view, as well as realize the interdependence of regions particularly in regards to climate change.

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

248

Plural Methodologies in Climate Change Research  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary The proposed paper explores plural methodological strategies in climate change. The paper investigates the possibilities and difficulties associated with bridging the gap between model- based approaches in climate change science and climate-change economics, which need validation or 'ground-truthing', and qualitative and case-study based approaches of other social sciences, which from an instrumental viewpoint would need to be more generalisable.

J. Paavola

249

Climate change and health - what's the problem?  

PubMed Central

The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and is largely the result of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. This paper examines the health implications of global warming, the current socio-political attitudes towards action on climate change and highlight the health co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, policy development for climate change and health should embrace health systems strengthening, commencing by incorporating climate change targets into Millennium Development Goal 7.

2013-01-01

250

Climate change and trace gases  

Microsoft Academic Search

Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice\\/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia

James Hansen; Makiko Sato; Pushker Kharecha; Gary Russell; David W. Lea; Mark Siddall

2007-01-01

251

Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change simulations made with coupled global climate models typically show a marked hemispheric asymmetry with more warming in the northern high lati- tudes than in the south. This asymmetry is ascribed to heat uptake by the ocean at high southern latitudes. A re- cent version of the CCCma climate model exhibits a much more symmetric warming, compared to an

G. M. Flato; G. J. Boer

2001-01-01

252

Climate change: The IPCC scientific assessment  

SciTech Connect

Book review of the intergovernmental panel on climate change report on global warming and the greenhouse effect. Covers the scientific basis for knowledge of the future climate. Presents chemistry of greenhouse gases and mathematical modelling of the climate system. The book is primarily for government policy makers.

Houghton, J.T.; Jenkins, G.J.; Ephraums, J.J. (eds.)

1990-01-01

253

Science and the climate change regime  

Microsoft Academic Search

Given rapidly increasing losses from extreme climate events, the world community already has a common interest in action to mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, this common interest is not well served through continued promotion of either mandatory (legally- binding) policies or 'do nothing' policies by various participants in the regime established by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate

RONALD D. BRUNNER

2001-01-01

254

Economics, institutions and adaptation to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation to the consequences of climate change has attracted increasing interest as a necessary complement to greenhouse gas mitigation. Economic approaches to climate adaptation are rarely articulated and discussed explicitly despite many benefits of such a framework-level discourse. Therefore, this article investigates how climate adaptation is framed and approached in economics and attempts to contribute to the development of economic

Christoph Oberlack; Bernhard Neumärker

2011-01-01

255

Tools for Teaching Climate Change Studies  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) develops public outreach materials and educational resources for schools. Studies prove that science education in rural and indigenous communities improves when educators integrate regional knowledge of climate and environmental issues into school curriculum and public outreach materials. In order to promote understanding of ACRF climate change studies, ACRF Education and Outreach has

A. M. Maestas; L. A. Jones

2005-01-01

256

Ecosystem Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Framework  

Microsoft Academic Search

Vulnerability is the degree to which human and environmental systems are likely to experience harm due to a perturbation or a stress. In the last years, it has become a central focus of the global change (including climate change). The climate change literature contains many explanations of vulnerability, stemming from the notion of sensitivity to more complex ideas, yet taking

Romain Lardy; Raphaël Martin; Bruno Bachelet; David R. C. Hill; Gianni Bellocchi

2012-01-01

257

Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about atmospheric circulation with applications of the Lorenz model, explored the land-sea breeze problem with the Dynamics and Thermodynamics Circulation Model (DTDM), and developed simple radiative transfer models. Class projects explored the effects of varying the content of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere, as well as the properties of paleoclimates in atmospheric simulations using EdGCM. Initial assessment of student knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors associated with these activities, particularly about climate change, was measured. Pre- and post-course surveys provided student perspectives about the courses and their learning about remote sensing and climate change concepts. Student performance on the tutorials and course projects evaluated students' ability to learn and apply their knowledge about climate change and skills with remote sensing to assigned problems or proposed projects of their choice. Survey and performance data illustrated that the exercises were successful in meeting their intended learning objectives as well as opportunities for further refinement and expansion.

Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

2013-12-01

258

Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary  

SciTech Connect

Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

1995-12-31

259

Aging, Climate Change, and Legacy Thinking  

PubMed Central

Climate change is a complex, long-term public health challenge. Older people are especially susceptible to certain climate change impacts, such as heat waves. We suggest that older people may be a resource for addressing climate change because of their concern for legacy—for leaving behind values, attitudes, and an intact world to their children and grandchildren. We review the theoretical basis for “legacy thinking” among older people. We offer suggestions for research on this phenomenon, and for action to strengthen the sense of legacy. At a time when older populations are growing, understanding and promoting legacy thinking may offer an important strategy for addressing climate change.

Fried, Linda; Moody, Rick

2012-01-01

260

Climate Change: The Public Health Response  

PubMed Central

There is scientific consensus that the global climate is changing, with rising surface temperatures, melting ice and snow, rising sea levels, and increasing climate variability. These changes are expected to have substantial impacts on human health. There are known, effective public health responses for many of these impacts, but the scope, timeline, and complexity of climate change are unprecedented. We propose a public health approach to climate change, based on the essential public health services, that extends to both clinical and population health services and emphasizes the coordination of government agencies (federal, state, and local), academia, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations.

Frumkin, Howard; Hess, Jeremy; Luber, George; Malilay, Josephine; McGeehin, Michael

2008-01-01

261

67 FR 69724 - United States Climate Change Science Program  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...Atmospheric Administration United States Climate Change Science Program AGENCY: National...agencies to develop a focused Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) with...resource management tools related to climate change issues. The U.S. Climate...

2002-11-19

262

Climate change impacts on global food security.  

PubMed

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security. PMID:23908229

Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

2013-08-01

263

EMS adaptation for climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The purpose of this study was to find an appropriate scenario of pre-hospital transportation of an emergency medical service (EMS) system for burdensome casualties resulting from extreme climate events. A case of natural catastrophic events in Taiwan, 88 wind-caused disasters, was reviewed and analyzed. A sequential-conveyance method was designed to shorten the casualty transportation time and to promote the efficiency of ambulance services. A proposed mobile emergency medical center was first constructed in a safe area, but nearby the disaster area. The Center consists of professional medical personnel who process the triage of incoming patients and take care of casualties with minor injuries. Ambulances in the Center were ready to sequentially convey the casualties with severer conditions to an assigned hospital that is distant from the disaster area for further treatment. The study suggests that if we could construct a spacious and well-equipped mobile emergency medical center, only a small portion of casualties would need to be transferred to distant hospitals. This would reduce the over-crowding problem in hospital ERs. First-line ambulances only reciprocated between the mobile emergency medical center and the disaster area, saving time and shortening the working distances. Second-line ambulances were highly regulated between the mobile emergency medical center and requested hospitals. The ambulance service of the sequential-conveyance method was found to be more efficient than the conventional method and was concluded to be more profitable and reasonable on paper in adapting to climate change. Therefore, additional practical work should be launched to collect more precise quantitative data.

Pan, C.; Chang, Y.; Wen, J.; Tsai, M.

2010-12-01

264

Impacts of climate change on avian populations.  

PubMed

This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate-population processes, along with improved long-term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best-studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time-lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate-dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the 'population robustness to climate change.' The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC-class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes. PMID:23505016

Jenouvrier, Stephanie

2013-07-01

265

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are exceeding levels recorded in the past millions of years, and thus climate is being forced beyond the range of the recent geological era. Lacking concerted action by the world's nations, it is clear that the future climate will be warmer, sea levels will rise, global rainfall patterns will change, and ecosystems will be altered. However, there is still uncertainty about how we will arrive at that future climate state. Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt, the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or "tipping point" to change so quickly that there will be little time to react. This presentation will synopsize the new US National Research Council Report, Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, highlighting areas of increased and decreased concern, as well as areas of new concern. Emphasis is placed on not only abrupt change in physical climate, but on abrupt changes in human and natural systems that can occur as a result of a slowly changing climate. The report calls for action now on an abrupt change early warning system (ACEWS) if societies are to be resilient to climate change.

White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Archer, David E.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Dunlea, Edward; Foley, Jonathan; Fu, Rong; Holland, Marika M.; Lozier, M. Susan; Schmitt, Johanna; Smith, Laurence C.; Sugihara, George; Thompson, David W. J.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Wofsy, Steven C.

2014-05-01

266

Late Pleistocene (MIS 3-4) climate inferred from micromammal communities and ?18O of rodents from Les Pradelles, France  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The middle Paleolithic stratigraphic sequence of Les Pradelles (Charente, France) spans from the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 until the middle of MIS 3. Micromammal remains are present in all the stratigraphic levels, offering a rare opportunity to address the questions of both environmental and climatic fluctuations throughout this period. Climate modes were studied through the taphonomy, biodiversity and oxygen isotope compositions of phosphate (?18Op) from 66 samples of rodent tooth enamel. The ?18Op values from the lower sedimentary levels provide summer mean air temperatures of 19 ± 2°C (level 2/1) and of 16 ± 2°C (levels 2A, 2B and 4A). Within the middle of sequence (level 4B), a paleobiodiversity change can be identified with an increase of Dicrostonyx torquatus, which is associated with the largest amplitude in ?18Op values and the highest maximal ?18Op values. At the top of the sequence (level 5-2), a biodiversity change is observed with the increase of Microtus arvalis, but without any change in ?18Op values. The association of cold rodent species with unexpected high and large amplitudes in the ?18Op values of their teeth, possibly indicative of aridity, suggests their deposition during a Heinrich event.

Royer, Aurélien; Lécuyer, Christophe; Montuire, Sophie; Escarguel, Gilles; Fourel, François; Mann, Alan; Maureille, Bruno

2013-07-01

267

The Status of Mars Climate Change Modeling  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Researchers have reviewed the evidence that the climate of Mars has changed throughout its history. In this paper, the discussion focuses on where we stand in terms of modeling these climate changes. For convenience, three distinct types of climate regimes are considered: very early in the planet's history (more than 3.5 Ga), when warm wet conditions are thought to have prevailed; the bulk of the planet's history (3.5-1 Ga), during which episodic ocean formation has been suggested; and relatively recently in the planet's history (less than 1 Ga), when orbitally induced climate change is thought to have occurred.

Haberle, Robert M.

1997-01-01

268

Internally and externally caused climate change  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A numerical climate model is used to simulate climate change forced only by random fluctuations of the atmospheric heat transport. This short-term natural variability of the atmosphere is shown to be a possible 'cause' not only of the variability of the annual world average temperature about its mean, but also long-term excursions from the mean. Various external causes of climate change are also tested with the model and the results compared with observations for the past 100 years. Volcanic dust is shown to have been an important cause of climate change, while the effects of sunspot-related solar constant variation and anthropogenic forcing are not evident.

Robock, A.

1978-01-01

269

Climate Change in an IB PYP Classroom  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Students in elementary school are inherently curious, which allows them to explore, experiment and investigate various themes, while also demonstrating the will to preserve the resources that surround them and take action to contribute to a better world. One of the units taught at International School Carinthia is "climate change" and its impacts on life on Earth. During this unit, grade 4 students conduct research to answer their own inquiries related to this topic. They investigate the different climate zones on our planet, examine why climate change happens, and discover how global warming and climate change are connected and its consequences on living beings.

da Costa, Ana

2014-05-01

270

Climate change risks for African agriculture  

PubMed Central

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from ?100% to +168% in econometric, from ?84% to +62% in process-based, and from ?57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

Cramer, Wolfgang; Hare, William L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2011-01-01

271

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary The UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) has sponsored several state-of-the-art assessments of future impacts of climate change on various climate-sensitive threats such as malaria, hunger, water shortage, coastal flooding, habitat loss, lowered carbon-sink capacity, and diminished coastal wetlands. The results, based on IPCC emission scenarios, figure prominently in the international debate about climate change, and

Indur M. Goklany

2008-01-01

272

Regional Climate Tutorial: Assessing Regional Climate Change and Its Impacts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent scientific progress now enables credible projections of global changes in climate over long time periods. But people will experience global climate change where they live and work, and have difficulty thinking of a future beyond their grandchildren's lifetime. Although the task of projecting climate change and its impacts is far more challenging for regional and relatively near-term time scales, these are the scales at which actions most easily can be taken to moderate negative impacts. This tutorial will summarize what is known about projecting changes in regional climate, and about assessing the impacts for sectors such as forests, agriculture, fresh water quantity and quality, coastal zones, human health, and ecosystems. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) is used to provide context and illustrate how adaptation within the region and feedback from other regions influence the impacts that might be experienced.

Barron, E.; Fisher, A.

2002-05-01

273

Climate change in China and China's policies and actions for addressing climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Since the first assessment report (FAR) of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the

D. Qin; J. Huang; Y. Luo

2010-01-01

274

China's National Assessment Report on Climate Change (II): Climate change impacts and adaptation  

Microsoft Academic Search

Significant and various impacts of climate change have been observed in China, showing both positive and adverse effects, dominantly the latter, in different sectors and regions. It is very likely that future climate change would cause significant adverse impacts on the ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. Adoption of adaptive measures to climate change can alleviate the

Lin Erda; Xu Yinlong; Wu Shaohong; Ju Hui; Ma Shiming

275

Climate Change and Public Policy After Copenhagen  

Microsoft Academic Search

Richard Somerville argues that one of the most important factors left out of debates on policies to address climate change is population growth. He asserts that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report of 2007 probably understates the rapid rise of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere and rising temperatures as measured and observed from a wide variety of sources:

Matthew E Kahn; Richard Somerville

2010-01-01

276

African climate change: 1900-2100  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper reviews observed (1900-2000) and possible future (2000-2100) continent- wide changes in temperature and rainfall for Africa. For the historic period we draw upon a new observed global climate data set which allows us to explore aspects of regional climate change related to diurnal temperature range and rainfall variability. The latter includes an investigation of regions where seasonal rainfall

M Hulme; R Doherty; T Ngara; M New; D Lister

2001-01-01

277

Climate change and global water resources  

Microsoft Academic Search

By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global

Nigel W. Arnell

1999-01-01

278

SENSITIVITY OF HYDROPOWER PERFORMANCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE  

Microsoft Academic Search

One solution to reduce the extent of climate change is to replace fossil-fuelled electricity generation with renewable sources including hydropower. However, simultaneous changes in climate may alter the available hydropower resource, threatening the financial viability of schemes. To illustrate the potential problem, a sensitivity analysis is presented that considers the impact of altered precipitation and temperature on river flows, energy

G. P. Harrison; H. W. Whittington; A. R. Wallace

2006-01-01

279

Climate Change, Regulatory Policy and the WTO  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change has come to be seen as a major global environmental challenge. This paper examines the extent to which WTO rules constrain countries' ability to address climate change through domestic regulatory policies such as standards, labels, voluntary agreements and domestic emissions trading programs. In particular, it examines three broad types of constraints. First, it discusses the extent to which

Andrew Green

2005-01-01

280

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Preparing agriculture for adaptation to climate change requires advance knowledge of how climate will change and when. The direct physical and biological impacts on plants and animals must be understood. The indirect impacts on agriculture's resource base of soils, water and genetic resources must also be known. We lack such information now and will, likely, for some time to come.

Norman J. Rosenberg

1992-01-01

281

Tajikistan : key priorities for climate change adaptation  

Microsoft Academic Search

How should Tajikistan adapt to ongoing and future climate change, in particular given the many pressing development challenges it currently faces? The paper argues that for developing countries like Tajikistan, faster economic and social development is the best possible defense against climate change. It presents some key findings from a recent nationally representative household survey to illustrate the strong public

Luca Barbone; Anna Reva; Salman Zaidi

2010-01-01

282

A commentary on the climate change issue  

Microsoft Academic Search

The climate is changing and the balance of scientific evidence indicates a human contribution through increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, continued emissions of which will lead to further climate change. Hence, there is an issue to manage through both reducing net greenhouse gas emissions and implementing adaptation strategies. This is not about scientific certainty but probability and risk management. Timely

G. I. Pearman

2012-01-01

283

Adapting to Climate Change in Africa  

Microsoft Academic Search

The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water

Thomas E. Downing; Lasse Ringius; Mike Hulme; Dominic Waughray

1997-01-01

284

Selected international efforts to address climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Over the past two decades, concern about human-induced climate change has become an increasingly important item on the environmental and political agenda. The signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the adoption of Agenda 21 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 provided international organizations and the nations

M. Seki; R. Christ

1995-01-01

285

Greenhouse Gas and Climate Change Assessment  

Microsoft Academic Search

Problem: Mitigating the production of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and developing strategies to prepare for changes in climate is an important challenge to the transportation planning profession.Purpose: This article identifies the research needed to inform planning practice on the relationship between transportation and climate change.Methods: I chaired the panel that prepared a recent Transportation Research Board special report on research

Michael D. Meyer

2010-01-01

286

Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events  

Microsoft Academic Search

The association between climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events is now well established. General circulation models of climate change predict that heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, especially in the higher latitudes, affecting large metropolitan areas that are not well adapted to them. Exposure to extreme heat is already a significant public health problem

George Luber; Michael McGeehin

2008-01-01

287

A new route toward limiting climate change?  

Microsoft Academic Search

The upcoming sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) has refocused attention on climate change policy. Recently, debate has been stimulated by the publication of a paper by Hansen et al who have suggested an\\

Steven J. Smith; Tm L. Wigley; James A. Edmonds

2000-01-01

288

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

The production of greenhouse gases due to anthropogenic activities may have begun to change the global climate. he global carbon cycle plays a significant role in projected climate change. owever, considerable uncertainty exists regarding pools and flux in the global cycle. iven ...

289

Lakes as sentinels of climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

While there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. We identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. These variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses

Rita Adrian; Catherine M. O'Reilly; Horacio Zagarese; Stephen B. Baines; Dag O. Hessen; Wendel Keller; David M. Livingstone; Ruben Sommaruga; Dietmar Straile; Ellen Van Donk; Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer; M. Winder

2009-01-01

290

Changes in University Governance in France and in Italy  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

The transformation of higher education systems under the pressure of new needs required by the "society of knowledge" in France and Italy has had a deep effect on the relationship between state and university, and therefore a direct impact on university governance. This article sums up the main results of a research carried out on university…

Boffo, Stefano; Dubois, Pierre; Moscati, Roberto

2008-01-01

291

Sensitivity of Climate to Changes in NDVI.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The sensitivity of global and regional climate to changes in vegetation density is investigated using a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model. The magnitude of the vegetation changes and their spatial distribution are based on natural decadal variability of ...

L. Bounoua G. J. Collatz S. O. Los P. J. Sellers D. A. Dazlich C. J. Tucker D. A. Randall

1999-01-01

292

The physical science behind climate change  

SciTech Connect

For a scientist studying climate change, 'eureka' moments are unusually rare. Instead progress is generally made by a painstaking piecing together of evidence from every new temperature measurement, satellite sounding or climate-model experiment. Data get checked and rechecked, ideas tested over and over again. Do the observations fit the predicted changes? Could there be some alternative explanation? Good climate scientists, like all good scientists, want to ensure that the highest standards of proof apply to everything they discover. And the evidence of change has mounted as climate records have grown longer, as our understanding of the climate system has improved and as climate models have become ever more reliable. Over the past 20 years, evidence that humans are affecting the climate has accumulated inexorably, and with it has come ever greater certainty across the scientific community in the reality of recent climate change and the potential for much greater change in the future. This increased certainty is starkly reflected in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the fourth in a series of assessments of the state of knowledge on the topic, written and reviewed by hundreds of scientists worldwide. The panel released a condensed version of the first part of the report, on the physical science basis of climate change, in February. Called the 'Summary for Policymakers,' it delivered to policymakers and ordinary people alike an unambiguous message: scientists are more confident than ever that humans have interfered with the climate and that further human-induced climate change is on the way. Although the report finds that some of these further changes are now inevitable, its analysis also confirms that the future, particularly in the longer term, remains largely in our hands--the magnitude of expected change depends on what humans choose to do about greenhouse gas emissions. The physical science assessment focuses on four topics: drivers of climate change, changes observed in the climate system, understanding cause-and-effect relationships, and projection of future changes. Important advances in research into all these areas have occurred since the IPCC assessment in 2001. In the pages that follow, we lay out the key findings that document the extent of change and that point to the unavoidable conclusion that human activity is driving it.

Collins, William; Collins, William; Colman, Robert; Haywood, James; Manning, Martin R.; Mote, Philip

2007-07-01

293

Natural and anthropogenic climate change  

SciTech Connect

This final report provides a broad overview of program accomplishments. Brief descriptions are provided for accomplishments with respect to intercomparisions and improvements in general circulation models, analysis of climatic data and climate model statistics, and accomplishments in the China Meteorology coordination.

Portman, D.A.; Gutowski, W.J. Jr.; Wang, W.C.; Iacono, M.J.; Yang, S.

1992-08-31

294

Man-Made Climatic Changes  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reviews environmental studies which show that national climatic fluctuations vary over a wide range. Solar radiation, earth temperatures, precipitation, atmospheric gases and suspended particulates are discussed in relation to urban and extraurban effects. Local weather modifications and attempts at climate control by man seem to have substantial…

Landsberg, Helmut E.

1970-01-01

295

What Are Governments Doing About Climate Change?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this textbook chapter, students are introduced to the national and international efforts to mitigate climate change. Students examine transcripts of a congressional hearing on climate change, and consider the importance of enacting climate change mitigation policies at the federal level versus individual or community action. The resource includes a classroom investigation, discussion questions, links to current news articles, and a suite of pre and post unit assessments. A teacher's guide supports classroom use. This is the ninth chapter in the unit, Climate Change, which addresses the question of how human activities are changing Earth's climate. The resource is part of Global Systems Science (GSS), an interdisciplinary course for high school students that emphasizes how scientists from a wide variety of fields work together to understand significant problems of global impact.

296

Climate change in the northeastern US: regional climate model validation and climate change projections  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A high resolution regional climate model (RCM) is used to simulate climate of the recent past and to project future climate change across the northeastern US. Different types of uncertainties in climate simulations are examined by driving the RCM with different boundary data, applying different emissions scenarios, and running an ensemble of simulations with different initial conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis and K-means clustering analysis are applied to divide the northeastern US region into four climatologically different zones based on the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation variability. The RCM simulations tend to overestimate SAT, especially over the northern part of the domain in winter and over the western part in summer. Statistically significant increases in seasonal SAT under both higher and lower emissions scenarios over the whole RCM domain suggest the robustness of future warming. Most parts of the northeastern US region will experience increasing winter precipitation and decreasing summer precipitation, though the changes are not statistically significant. The greater magnitude of the projected temperature increase by the end of the twenty-first century under the higher emissions scenario emphasizes the essential role of emissions choices in determining the potential future climate change.

Fan, Fangxing; Bradley, Raymond S.; Rawlins, Michael A.

2014-06-01

297

Climate change on the Great Lakes Basin  

SciTech Connect

This publication is a compilation of five papers presented at the Symposium of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Basin held as part of the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Chicago in February 1992. The five papers included in the publication are: [open quotes]Great Lakes 20th Century Climate Variability: Implications for Future Scenarios [close quotes]; [open quotes]Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Great Lakes[close quotes]; [open quotes]Climate Change in the Great Lakes Basin: Impacts, Research Priorities and Policy Issues[close quotes]; [open quotes]Climate and Global Change: The Responses and Policy Issues Related to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Basin[close quotes] and; [open quotes]A Proposed US Research Program to Assess Climate Change in the Great Lakes[close quotes]. The results of these five papers provide an overview of various aspects of climatic change relative to the Great Lakes Basin.

Not Available

1992-01-01

298

Integrating Climate Change into Great Lakes Protection  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change is now recognized as one of the greatest threats to the Great Lakes. Projected climate change impacts to the Great Lakes include increases in surface water and air temperature; decreases in ice cover; shorter winters, early spring, and longer summers; increased frequency of intense storms; more precipitation falling as rain in the winter; less snowfall; and variations in water levels, among other effects. Changing climate conditions may compromise efforts to protect and restore the Great Lakes ecosystem and may lead to irrevocable impacts on the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of the Great Lakes. Examples of such potential impacts include the transformation of coastal wetlands into terrestrial ecosystems; reduced fisheries; increased beach erosion; change in forest species composition as species migrate northward; potential increase in toxic substance concentrations; potential increases in the frequency and extent of algal blooms; degraded water quality; and a potential increase in invasive species. The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, signed into law by President Obama in 2010, represents the commitment of the federal government to protect, restore, and maintain the Great Lakes ecosystem. The GLRI Action Plan, issued in February 2010, identifies five focus areas: - Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern - Invasive Species - Nearshore Health and Nonpoint Source Pollution - Habitat and Wildlife Protection and Restoration - Accountability, Education, Monitoring, Evaluation, Communication, and Partnerships The Action Plan recognizes that the projected impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes have implications across all focus areas and encourages incorporation of climate change considerations into GLRI projects and programs as appropriate. Under the GLRI, EPA has funded climate change-related work by states, tribes, federal agencies, academics and NGOs through competitive grants, state and tribal capacity grants, and Interagency Agreements. EPA has provided GLRI funding for a diverse suite of climate change-related projects including Great Lakes climate change research and modeling; adaptation plan development and implementation; ecosystem vulnerability assessments; outreach and education programs; habitat restoration and protection projects that will increase ecosystem resilience; and other projects that address climate change impacts. This presentation will discuss how the GLRI is helping to improve the climate change science needed to support the Action Plan. It will further describe how the GLRI is helping coordinate climate change efforts among Great Lakes states, tribes, Federal agencies, and other stakeholders. Finally, it will discuss how the GLRI is facilitating adaptation planning by our Great Lakes partners. The draft Lake Superior Ecosystem Climate Change Adaptation Plan serves as a case study for an integrated, collaborative, and coordinated climate change effort.

Hedman, S.

2012-12-01

299

Studying climate change in Siberia based on climatic indices assessment  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowadays substantial progress has been achieved in studying climatic changes. However, standrad set of meteorological and climatic characteristics, used for climate change assessment on global scale, is not sufficient for assessment of regional manifestations of climate changes. To study peculiarities of climate behavior in the selected region, it is necessary to enlarge the set of indicators and to improve spatial resolution. The most practically important are the data on change of extreme values of meteorological elements and not just on change of their average values. This paper is devoted to studying climate change in Siberia based on analysis of climate change indices characterizing behavior of thermal conditions and precipitation in the region considered. The indices used for calculation have been developed by CC1/CLIVAR working group (http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/indices.shtml) and approved by Expert Group on detection, monitoring and climate change indices at WMO Climatology Commission. Initial data are data from JMA/CRIEPI JRA Reanalysis on air temperature and precipitation amount over period from 1979 till 2001 with resolution of 1.25o?1.25o, as well as observation data at weather stations (meteorological data of RIHMI-WDC /NOAA and Zapsibgidromet). Using the data available we determined spatial behavior of climatic characteristics on Siberian territory for the first half of 20th century, when there was no anthropogenic impact, and for the second half of that century, when such an impact become sufficient. Comparative analysis was made for behavior of thermal conditions and precipitation amount. The results obtained refine pattern of regional climate change in Siberia. For example, we revealed that on the Siberian territory number of freezing days and days with frost sufficiently changed towards increase by 1 day annually, while number of summer days decreased by 0.5 - 1 day. The Reanalysis datasets used for this study are provided from the cooperative research project of the JRA long-term reanalysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).

Shulgina, T.; Bogomolov, V.; Genina, E.; Gordov, E.; Nikitchuk, K.; Okladnikov, I.; Titov, A.

2009-04-01

300

Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high absolute radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high absolute accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate model predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Thome, K. J; Leroy, S.; Corliss, J.; Anderson, J. G.; Ao, C. O.; Bantges, R.; Best, F.; Bowman, K.; Brindley, H.; Butler, J. J.; Collins, W.; Dykema, J. A.; Doelling, D. R.; Feldman, D. R.; Fox, N.; Huang, X.; Holz, R.; Huang, Y.; Jennings, D.; Jin, Z.; Johnson, D. G.; Jucks, K.; Kato, S.; Kratz, D. P.; Liu, X.; Lukashin, C.; Mannucci, A. J.; Phojanamongkolkij, N.; Roithmayr, C. M.; Sandford, S.; Taylor, P. C.; Xiong, X.

2013-01-01

301

Global Climate Change: Resources for Environmental Literacy  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Most scientists believe that Earth's climate is changing and in fact heating up. However, they don't all agree about the rate of change, the extent of the impact on our environment, or what can or should be done about it. This module is based on the premise that understanding what influences Earth's energy balance is necessary (though not sufficient) to make sound decisions about climate change. Among the key concepts: how weather and climate relate to transfer of energy in and out of Earth's atmosphere, and how human activities have changed Earth's land, oceans, and atmosphere.

Council, Environmental L.; National Science Teachers Association (NSTA)

2007-05-16

302

Global climate change and children's health.  

PubMed

There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to this change. PMID:17967923

Shea, Katherine M

2007-11-01

303

Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change. The process of adaptation is not new; the idea of incorporating future climate risk into policy-making is. While our understanding of climate change and its potential impacts has become clearer, the availability of practical guidance on adaptation has not kept pace. The development of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is intended to help provide the rapidly evolving process of adaptation policy-making with a much-needed roadmap. Ultimately, the purpose of the APF is to support adaptation processes to protect - and enhance - human well-being in the face of climate change. This volume will be invaluable for everyone working on climate change adaptation and policy-making.

Lim, Bo; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika; Burton, Ian; Malone, Eizabeth; Huq, Saleemul

2004-11-01

304

Coal in a changing climate  

SciTech Connect

The NRDC analysis examines the changing climate for coal production and use in the United States and China, the world's two largest producers and consumers of coal. The authors say that the current coal fuel cycle is among the most destructive activities on earth, placing an unacceptable burden on public health and the environment. There is no such thing as 'clean coal.' Our highest priorities must be to avoid increased reliance on coal and to accelerate the transition to an energy future based on efficient use of renewable resources. Energy efficiency and renewable energy resources are technically capable of meeting the demands for energy services in countries that rely on coal. However, more than 500 conventional coal-fired power plants are expected in China in the next eight years alone, and more than 100 are under development in the United States. Because it is very likely that significant coal use will continue during the transition to renewables, it is important that we also take the necessary steps to minimize the destructive effects of coal use. That requires the U.S. and China to take steps now to end destructive mining practices and to apply state of the art pollution controls, including CO{sub 2} control systems, to sources that use coal. Contents of the report are: Introduction; Background (Coal Production; Coal Use); The Toll from Coal (Environmental Effects of Coal Production; Environmental Effects of Coal Transportation); Environmental Effects of Coal Use (Air Pollutants; Other Pollutants; Environmental Effects of Coal Use in China); What Is the Future for Coal? (Reducing Fossil Fuel Dependence; Reducing the Impacts of Coal Production; Reducing Damage From Coal Use; Global Warming and Coal); and Conclusion. 2 tabs.

Lashof, D.A.; Delano, D.; Devine, J. (and others)

2007-02-15

305

Cenozoic climate change influences mammalian evolutionary dynamics  

PubMed Central

Global climate change is having profound impacts on the natural world. However, climate influence on faunal dynamics at macroevolutionary scales remains poorly understood. In this paper we investigate the influence of climate over deep time on the diversity patterns of Cenozoic North American mammals. We use factor analysis to identify temporally correlated assemblages of taxa, or major evolutionary faunas that we can then study in relation to climatic change over the past 65 million years. These taxa can be grouped into six consecutive faunal associations that show some correspondence with the qualitative mammalian chronofaunas of previous workers. We also show that the diversity pattern of most of these chronofaunas can be correlated with the stacked deep-sea benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope (?18O) curve, which strongly suggests climatic forcing of faunal dynamics over a large macroevolutionary timescale. This study demonstrates the profound influence of climate on the diversity patterns of North American terrestrial mammals over the Cenozoic.

Figueirido, Borja; Janis, Christine M.; Perez-Claros, Juan A.; De Renzi, Miquel; Palmqvist, Paul

2012-01-01

306

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California  

Microsoft Academic Search

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley

Katharine Hayhoe; Daniel Cayan; Christopher B. Field; Peter C. Frumhoff; Edwin P. Maurer; Norman L. Miller; Susanne C. Moser; Stephen H. Schneider; Kimberly Nicholas Cahill; Elsa E. Cleland; Larry Dale; Ray Drapek; R. Michael Hanemann; Laurence S. Kalkstein; James Lenihan; Claire K. Lunch; Ronald P. Neilson; Scott C. Sheridan; Julia H. Verville

2004-01-01

307

Lakes as sentinels of climate change  

PubMed Central

While there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. We identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. These variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate. However, the efficacy of the different indicators is affected by regional response to climate change, characteristics of the catchment, and lake mixing regimes. Thus, particular indicators or combinations of indicators are more effective for different lake types and geographic regions. The extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes, such as eutrophication or acidification, and the equivalent reverse phenomena, in addition to other land-use influences. In many cases, however, confounding factors can be addressed through analytical tools such as detrending or filtering. Lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment.

Adrian, Rita; O'Reilly, Catherine M.; Zagarese, Horacio; Baines, Stephen B.; Hessen, Dag O.; Keller, Wendel; Livingstone, David M.; Sommaruga, Ruben; Straile, Dietmar; Van Donk, Ellen; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Winder, Monika

2010-01-01

308

Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change.  

PubMed

The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate-mediated services under a changing climate. PMID:23217156

Prather, Chelse M; Pelini, Shannon L; Laws, Angela; Rivest, Emily; Woltz, Megan; Bloch, Christopher P; Del Toro, Israel; Ho, Chuan-Kai; Kominoski, John; Newbold, T A Scott; Parsons, Sheena; Joern, A

2013-05-01

309

Climate Change Estimation by Bayesian Statistical Methods  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) considered some 20 atmosphere-ocean model simulations of the 20th-century climate, as well as projections of 21st-century climate associated with different greenhouse emissions scenarios. These multi-model simulations offer an unprecedented opportunity to predict the likely climate change (and its uncertainty) at different locations; however, this requires the ability to accurately estimate the probability distribution of the potential climate change on regional scales. This goal may be pursued via Bayesian statistical methods which differentially weight the multi-model simulations so as to maximize a "likelihood function" that depends on the target data that are used to evaluate model performance in simulating both historical and future climates. While observations of 20th century climate can serve as validations of the historical climate simulations, an appropriate choice of target data for evaluating model projections of 21th century climate is less obvious. This study considers future-climate target data that employ either 1) the ensemble mean of the pooled climate projections, or 2) the projection of a single model from the ensemble, each of which in turn is assumed to be "perfect". The impacts of these different target data on the Bayesian estimates of the probability distributions of regional climate changes (e.g. in surface temperature and precipitation) will be presented. The effects of expanding the criteria for assessing statistical agreement of the simulations with the chosen target data (so as to include consideration of both first- and second-moment statistical metrics) also will be discussed. Acknowledgments: This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Duan, Q.; Phillips, T.

2008-12-01

310

Tools for Teaching Climate Change Studies  

SciTech Connect

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) develops public outreach materials and educational resources for schools. Studies prove that science education in rural and indigenous communities improves when educators integrate regional knowledge of climate and environmental issues into school curriculum and public outreach materials. In order to promote understanding of ACRF climate change studies, ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks about climate change for host communities close to the research sites. A kiosk for the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) community was installed at the Iupiat Heritage Center in 2003, and a kiosk for the Tropical Western Pacific locales will be installed in 2005. The kiosks feature interviews with local community elders, regional agency officials, and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program scientists, which highlight both research and local observations of some aspects of environmental and climatic change in the Arctic and Pacific. The kiosks offer viewers a unique opportunity to learn about the environmental concerns and knowledge of respected community elders, and to also understand state-of-the-art climate research. An archive of interviews from the communities will also be distributed with supplemental lessons and activities to encourage teachers and students to compare and contrast climate change studies and oral history observations from two distinct locations. The U.S. Department of Energy's ACRF supports education and outreach efforts for communities and schools located near its sites. ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks at the request of the communities to provide an opportunity for the public to learn about climate change from both scientific and indigenous perspectives. Kiosks include interviews with ARM scientists and provide users with basic information about climate change studies as well as interviews with elders and community leaders discussing the impacts of climate change on land, sea, and other aspects of village life.

Maestas, A.M.; Jones, L.A.

2005-03-18

311

Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer's training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short-term, medium-term, and long-term initiatives, with each initiative in one stage contributing to initiatives in a subsequent stage. The learning by doing inherent in such a process-oriented approach is a requirement owing to the many uncertainties associated with climate change.

Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Liu, De Li; Macadam, Ian; Kelly, Georgina

2013-07-01

312

The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We present here a dynamical method for modelling temporal and geographical variations in ammonia emissions in regional-scale chemistry transport models (CTMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs). The method is based on the meteorology in the models and gridded inventories. We use the dynamical method to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of ammonia emissions across part of Europe and study how these emissions are related to geographical and year-to-year variations in atmospheric temperature alone. For simplicity we focus on the emission from a storage facility related to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections from an ensemble of climate models. The results point towards four overall issues. (1) Emissions can easily vary by 20% for different geographical locations within a country due to overall variations in climate. The largest uncertainties are seen for large countries such as the UK, Germany and France. (2) Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20%. (3) Climate change may increase emissions by 0-40% in central to northern Europe. (4) Gradients in existing emission inventories that are seen between neighbour countries (e.g. between the UK and France) can be reduced by using a dynamical methodology for calculating emissions. Acting together these four factors can cause substantial uncertainties in emission. Emissions are generally considered among the largest uncertainties in the model calculations made with CTM and CCM models. Efforts to reduce uncertainties are therefore highly relevant. It is therefore recommended that both CCMs and CTMs implement a dynamical methodology for simulating ammonia emissions in a similar way as for biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOCs) - a method that has been used for more than a decade in CTMs. Finally, the climate penalty on ammonia emissions should be taken into account at the policy level such as the NEC and IPPC directives.

Skjøth, C. A.; Geels, C.

2013-01-01

313

Natural and anthropogenic climate change. Final report  

SciTech Connect

The report describes a one-year research project which was the initial phase of a research program intended: (1) to refine and validate a 2-D climate model for studying the CO/sub 2/ and trace gases climatic effects; and (2) to participate in the United States of America (USA) Department of Energy/The People's Republic of China (PRC) Academia Sinica research project on CO/sub 2/-induced climate changes. The overall objective is to find ways to model regional climate change in a global warming environment potentially induced by CO/sub 2/ increase. The first task has two subtasks: (a) to incorporate a boundary layer parameterization into the 2-D radiative-dynamical model of Wang et al. (1984) and study its impact on climate sensitivity; and (b) to validate the 2-D radiative-dynamical models through comparisons with data and with other more comprehensive climate models so that our confidence in the model simulation of trace gases climatic effects can be increased. The second task is intended to: (a) analyze the climate data to improve our understanding of local/regional climate changes (in particular the desertification problem); and (b) coordinate the various research programs within the USA/PRC CO/sub 2/ project, which is critical in successfully achieving the research project scientific goals.

Wang, W.C.; Ronberg, B.; Gutowski, W.; Molnar, G.; Li, K.R.

1986-08-01

314

Abrupt climate change and extinction events  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

Crowley, Thomas J.

1988-01-01

315

Cotton farming systems for a changing climate  

Microsoft Academic Search

Change has always been present, but the cotton industry like all Australian agriculture in general is facing change at an unprecedented rate and from different causes. In this article we consider changes that the cotton industry faces associated with: 'climate change' in the meteorological sense; regulatory issues relating to reductions in water availability and carbon emissions trading; rising costs of

Michael Bange; Greg Constable

316

Biotic and Biogeochemical Feedbacks to Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feedbacks to paleoclimate change are evident in ice core records showing correlations of temperature with carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane. Such feedbacks may be explained by plant and microbial responses to climate change, and are likely to occur under impending climate warming, as evidenced by results of ecosystem climate manipulation experiments and biometeorological observations along ecological and climate gradients. Ecosystems exert considerable influence on climate, by controlling the energy and water balance of the land surface as well as being sinks and sources of greenhouse gases. This presentation will focus on biotic and biogeochemical climate feedbacks on decadal to century time scales, emphasizing carbon storage and energy exchange. In addition to the direct effects of climate on decomposition rates and of climate and CO2 on plant productivity, climate change can alter species composition; because plant species differ in their surface properties, productivity, phenology, and chemistry, climate-induced changes in plant species composition can exert a large influence on the magnitude and sign of climate feedbacks. We discuss the effects of plant species on ecosystem carbon storage that result from characteristic differences in plant biomass and lifetime, allocation to roots vs. leaves, litter quality, microclimate for decomposition and the ultimate stabilization of soil organic matter. We compare the effect of species transitions on transpiration, albedo, and other surface properties, with the effect of elevated CO2 and warming on single species' surface exchange. Global change models and experiments that investigate the effect of climate only on existing vegetation may miss the biggest impacts of climate change on biogeochemical cycling and feedbacks. Quantification of feedbacks will require understanding how species composition and long-term soil processes will change under global warming. Although no single approach, be it experimental, observational, or modeling, can adequately capture the complex factors that govern species distributions over relevant spatial and temporal scales, careful integration of these methods can yield needed insights. The potential for large, rapid, or unexpected feedbacks of biogeochemistry and energy balance to climate change make this a worthwhile challenge.

Torn, M. S.; Harte, J.

2002-12-01

317

Mammalian Response to Cenozoic Climatic Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Multiple episodes of rapid and gradual climatic changes influenced the evolution and ecology of mammalian species and communities throughout the Cenozoic. Climatic change influenced the abundance, genetic diversity, morphology, and geographic ranges of individual species. Within communities these responses interacted to catalyze immigration, speciation, and extinction. Combined they affected long-term patterns of community stability, functional turnover, biotic turnover, and diversity. Although the relative influence of climate on particular evolutionary processes is oft debated, an understanding of processes at the root of biotic change yields important insights into the complexity of mammalian response. Ultimately, all responses trace to events experienced by populations. However, many such processes emerge as patterns above the species level, where shared life history traits and evolutionary history allow us to generalize about mammalian response to climatic change. These generalizations provide the greatest power to understand and predict mammalian responses to current and future global change.

Blois, Jessica L.; Hadly, Elizabeth A.

2009-05-01

318

An ecological ‘footprint’ of climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recently, there has been increasing evidence of species' range shifts due to changes in climate. Whereas most of these shifts relate ground truth biogeographic data to a general warming trend in regional or global climate data, we here present a reanalysis of both biogeographic and bioclimatic data of equal spatio- temporal resolution, covering a time span of more than 50

Gian-Reto Walther; Silje Berger; Martin T. Sykes

2005-01-01

319

A Cooperative Classroom Investigation of Climate Change  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scientists have a particularly difficult time explaining warming trends in Antarctica--a region with a relatively short history of scientific observation and a highly variable climate (Clarke et al. 2007). Regardless of the mechanism of warming, however, climate change is having a dramatic impact on Antarctic ecosystems. In this article, the…

Constible, Juanita; Sandro, Luke; Lee, Richard E., Jr.

2007-01-01

320

Trade rules and climate change subsidies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Countries can choose between a wide range of policy instruments to address climate change. While economists tend to argue for the efficiency of instruments such as environmental taxes, many countries are incorporating subsidies into their plans for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. However, these subsidies may conflict with World Trade Organization rules. This paper analyzes the potential benefits of using climate

ANDREW GREEN

2006-01-01

321

Extreme Weather Events: Lessons for Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

To cope with coming climate change will require that we: (1) assess our future vulnerabilities; (2) mitigate our anthropogenic contributions; and (3) adapt where possible. Since our abilities in these three areas are limited, we must (4) accelerate our research and (5) step up our technology development across the board. Our task is made more daunting because climate and weather

William H. Hooke

2001-01-01

322

Why sustainable tourism must address climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This opinion piece examines Weaver's thesis that sustainable tourism's current expanding engagement with climate change may not necessarily be conducive to the interests of tourism sustainability. It critically examines and responds to the seven interrelated issues presented by Weaver to support that opinion. This paper dispels some common climate science myths that continue to hamper scientific progress and obfuscate debate

Daniel Scott

2011-01-01

323

How Can We Avert Dangerous Climate Change?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important, adjustments to the CO2 limit. Realization of how close the planet is to \\

James Hansen

2007-01-01

324

Climate change and groundwater: a short review  

Microsoft Academic Search

Abstract: There is a general consensus that climate change is an ongoing phenomenon. This will inevitably bring about numerous environmental problems, including alterations to the hydrolo- gical cycle, which is already heavily influenced by anthropogenic activity. The available climate scenarios indicate areas where rainfall may increase or diminish, but the final outcome with respect to man and environment will, generally,

W. Dragoni; B. S. Sukhija

2008-01-01

325

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTIVE RESPONSE IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE  

Microsoft Academic Search

The paper explores the distinction between climate and climate change. Adaptation to current climate variability has been proposed as an additional way to approach adaptation to long-term climate change. In effect improved adaptation to current climate is a step in preparation for longer term climate change. International programs of research and assessment are separately organized to deal with natural disasters

Ian Burton

1997-01-01

326

Bahamians and Climate Change: An Analysis of Risk Perception and Climate Change Literacy  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is forecasted to be adversely impacted by the effects of climate change. This presentation will present the results of an assessment of the risk perception toward climate change and climate change literacy among Bahamians. 499 Bahamians from the health care and hospitality industries participated in surveys and/or focus groups and three (3) areas of climate change literacy (attitude, behavior and knowledge) were analyzed as well as risk perception. In general, 1) Bahamians demonstrated an elementary understanding of the underlying causes of climate change, 2) possessed positive attitudes toward adopting new climate change policies, and 3) are already adjusting their behaviors in light of the current predictions. This research also resulted in the development of a model of the relationships between the climate literacy subscales (attitude, behavior and knowledge) and risk perception. This study also examined information sources and their impacts on climate change literacy. As the source of information is important in assessing the quality of the information, participants also identified the source(s) of most of their climate change information. The TV news was cited as the most common source for climate change information among Bahamians. As there is limited active research generating specific climate change information in the Bahamas, all the information Bahamians receive as it pertains to climate change is generated abroad. As a result, Bahamians must decipher through to make sense of it on an individual level. From the focus groups, many of the participants have been able to view possible changes through a cultural lens and are willing to make adjustments to maintain the uniqueness and viability of the Bahamas and to preserve it for generations. Continued study of Bahamians' climate change literacy will inform adaption and mitigation policy as well as individual action.

Neely, R.; Owens, M. A.

2011-12-01

327

Conservation Planning with Uncertain Climate Change Projections  

PubMed Central

Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe.

Moilanen, Atte; Araujo, Miguel B.

2013-01-01

328

How does climate change influence Arctic mercury?  

PubMed

Recent studies have shown that climate change is already having significant impacts on many aspects of transport pathways, speciation and cycling of mercury within Arctic ecosystems. For example, the extensive loss of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean and the concurrent shift from greater proportions of perennial to annual types have been shown to promote changes in primary productivity, shift foodweb structures, alter mercury methylation and demethylation rates, and influence mercury distribution and transport across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface (bottom-up processes). In addition, changes in animal social behavior associated with changing sea-ice regimes can affect dietary exposure to mercury (top-down processes). In this review, we address these and other possible ramifications of climate variability on mercury cycling, processes and exposure by applying recent literature to the following nine questions; 1) What impact has climate change had on Arctic physical characteristics and processes? 2) How do rising temperatures affect atmospheric mercury chemistry? 3) Will a decrease in sea-ice coverage have an impact on the amount of atmospheric mercury deposited to or emitted from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how? 4) Does climate affect air-surface mercury flux, and riverine mercury fluxes, in Arctic freshwater and terrestrial systems, and if so, how? 5) How does climate change affect mercury methylation/demethylation in different compartments in the Arctic Ocean and freshwater systems? 6) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of freshwater food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of mercury? 7) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of marine food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of marine mercury? 8) What are the likely mercury emissions from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost under climate change scenarios? and 9) What can be learned from current mass balance inventories of mercury in the Arctic? The review finishes with several conclusions and recommendations. PMID:22104383

Stern, Gary A; Macdonald, Robie W; Outridge, Peter M; Wilson, Simon; Chételat, John; Cole, Amanda; Hintelmann, Holger; Loseto, Lisa L; Steffen, Alexandra; Wang, Feiyue; Zdanowicz, Christian

2012-01-01

329

Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the results of the earlier decisions, as simulated by C-ROADS. Preliminary evaluations show that both exercises have the potential to provide powerful learning experiences. University students who played World Climate in a climate change course cited it as one of the course activities "promoting the most learning." Students' responses on anonymous surveys and open-ended questions revealed that the experience affected them at visceral, as well as intellectual levels. All of the students recommended that the exercise be continued in future years and many felt that it was the most important learning experience of the semester. Similarly, understanding of climate change and the dynamics of the climate improved for the majority of Future Climate participants, and 90% of participants stated that they were more likely to take action to address climate change on a personal level because of their experience.

Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

2012-12-01

330

72 FR 28545 - United States Climate Change Science Program  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...STATE [Public Notice 5798] United States Climate Change Science Program The United States Climate Change Science Program requests expert review...volume of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment...

2007-05-21

331

70 FR 3577 - United States Climate Change Science Program  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...Public Notice 4961] United States Climate Change Science Program ACTION: Request...the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ``Special Report on...and socio-economic aspects of climate change, the IPCC provides, on...

2005-01-25

332

68 FR 69430 - United States Climate Change Science Program  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...Public Notice 4554] United States Climate Change Science Program ACTION: Request...the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC...basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts,...

2003-12-12

333

7 CFR 2.74 - Director, Climate Change Program Office.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...2014-01-01 false Director, Climate Change Program Office. 2.74 Section...Economist § 2.74 Director, Climate Change Program Office. (a) Delegations...Chief Economist to the Director, Climate Change Program Office: (1)...

2014-01-01

334

73 FR 1222 - Human Impacts of Climate Change Advisory Committee  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...FRL-8514-3] Human Impacts of Climate Change Advisory Committee AGENCY: U...Protection Agency's Human Impacts of Climate Change Advisory Committee (HICCAC...ordered the interagency U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) to...

2008-01-07

335

68 FR 748 - United States Climate Change Science Program  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...030102001-3001-01] United States Climate Change Science Program AGENCY: National...SUMMARY: The United States Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is announcing...document ``Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program.'' The...

2003-01-07

336

61 FR 30593 - Climate and Global Change Program  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...provide reliable predictions of climate change and associated regional implications...instructed otherwise. Atlantic Climate Change/World Ocean Circulation Experiment...levy@ogp.noaa.gov. Climate Change Data and...

1996-06-17

337

59 FR- NOAA Climate and Global Change Program, Program Announcement  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...provide reliable predictions of climate change and associated regional implications...Woodward@omnet.com. Atlantic Climate Change--The goal of this project is...devoted to the early detection of climate change. Under this activity,...

1994-05-13

338

71 FR 17942 - United States Climate Change Science Program  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...STATE [Public Notice 5369] United States Climate Change Science Program The United States Climate Change Science Program requests expert review of the Working Group I contribution (``Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science...

2006-04-07

339

National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Climate change poses significant challenges to water resources and the Environmental Protection Agencys (EPA) National Water Program (NWP). The NWP 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change addresses climate change in the context of our water programs. It...

2012-01-01

340

Climate change scenarios for Great Lakes Basin ecosystem studies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Significant change in global climate could occur due to human-induced changes in the chemistry of the atmosphere. We provide a basis for the continuing assessment of potential impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems. A series of climate change scenarios have been developed for the Great Lakes Basin using general circulation models (GCMs), climate spatial transpositions, and historical climate analogs.

Linda D. Mortsch; Frank H. Quinn

1996-01-01

341

Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

A coupled numerical model of the global atmosphere and biosphere has been used to assess the effects of Amazon deforestation on the regional and global climate. When the tropical forests in the model were replaced by degraded grass (pasture), there was a significant increase in surface temperature and a decrease in evapotranspiration and precipitation over Amazonia. In the simulation, the

J. Shukla; C. Nobre; P. Sellers

1990-01-01

342

CLIMATE CHANGE: STATE OF KNOWLEDGE  

EPA Science Inventory

This State of Knowledge document presents an introduction to human effects that during the past 100 years have led to increased atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in global temperatures. The world's leading climate scientists have concluded that Ea...

343

Global climatic change on Mars  

Microsoft Academic Search

Cold, dry and laced with carbon dioxide snow, Mars today is a desiccated world. Yet many times throughout its history, warm spells, volcanoes or meteorite impacts have abruptly thawed water frozen below ground. Catastrophic floods of carbonated water then carved valleys, triggered mud slides and perhaps even formed an ocean. The authors describe how climate on the red planet has

J. S. Kargel; R. G. Strom

1996-01-01

344

Native Student Filmmakers Focus on Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This video segment features student filmmakers from Haskell Indian Nations University. Their film project, titled Where Words Touch the Earth, is a vehicle to share indigenous wisdom with other Native students and with the broader population who view their work. The video segment features Native student filmmakers as well as Elders talking about climate change. It begins with the student filmmakers explaining the meaning behind the film project, Where Words Touch the Earth, and why their involvement matters. Native Elders then share some of their observations of how climate has changed and the sense of responsibility Native people share not to stand idly by in the face of change. The background essay explains how climate change affects us all, and helps promote the idea of knowledge about climate change and our environment. The discussion questions ask what students themselves can do to help climate change, as well as what aspects of climate change interest the student the most. There is a helpful section that shows your states standards for grades K-12, and links are provided for related resources on the teachers domain website.

2010-01-01

345

Climate change and health in Earth's future  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

2014-02-01

346

Climate Change Models and Forest Research.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The recent Earth Summit in Rio has once again focused world attention on the importance of climate, human and biological interactions. Under programs such as the Forest Service Global Change Research Program (FSGCRP), scientists are exploring and assessin...

E. J. Cooter B. K. Eder S. K. LeDuc L. Truppi

1993-01-01

347

Climate Change: Modeling the Human Response  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Integrated assessment models have historically relied on forward modeling including, where possible, process-based representations to project climate change impacts. Some recent impact studies incorporate the effects of human responses to initial physical impacts, such as adaptation in agricultural systems, migration in response to drought, and climate-related changes in worker productivity. Sometimes the human response ameliorates the initial physical impacts, sometimes it aggravates it, and sometimes it displaces it onto others. In these arenas, understanding of underlying socioeconomic mechanisms is extremely limited. Consequently, for some sectors where sufficient data has accumulated, empirically based statistical models of human responses to past climate variability and change have been used to infer response sensitivities which may apply under certain conditions to future impacts, allowing a broad extension of integrated assessment into the realm of human adaptation. We discuss the insights gained from and limitations of such modeling for benefit-cost analysis of climate change.

Oppenheimer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.

2012-12-01

348

CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL ISOPRENE EMISSIONS  

EPA Science Inventory

Emission of isoprene from vegetation affects tropospheric chemistry at the regional and global scales. rojected global climate change will potentially alter emission rates, with corresponding influences on concentrations of ozone and other radiatively important trace gases. rogre...

349

Anthropogenic Climate Change in Asia: Key Challenges  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The energy, agricultural, and water sectors in Asia, a vast continent that comprises more than half of the world's population, are crucially vulnerable to shifts in climate. The acceleration of economic development in Asia over the past few decades, the dependence of its huge agricultural economy on rainfall, and its growing energy demands have thrust climate change and its impacts squarely into important sectors of the Asian society. Further, it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over the Asian continent (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2007]; see Figure 1a). Asian megacities are already witnessing stresses in food, water, transportation, health, and air quality. The situation could become even worse with projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the 21st century, coupled with the likelihood that climate change will exacerbate extremes.

Ramaswamy, V.

2009-12-01

350

Climate Change Impacts on Turkish Vegetation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Mediterranean has been identified as a potentially vulnerable hotspot under climate change. In Turkey, climate change projections consistently predict large temperature rises over the 21st century. With 9% of GDP and 25% of employment coming from agriculture, climate change has the potential to significantly affect both the Turkish economy and living standards. Relatively little work has been undertaken to estimate the effects and risks of climate change in Turkey, and many European studies cover do not include the whole of Turkey in their domain and so are of limited use for policy-makers. The Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS was parametrised to represent Turkish vegetation. Climate forcings were derived by interpolating meteorological data from over 600 stations from 1975-2010 to a 1km resolution. Soil depth and soil texture data from field measurements were also interpolated to a 1km grid. The model was benchmarked against vegetation type and remotely sensed biomass and tree cover data. Future climate conditions were calculated using the outputs from a set of regional model simulations. In particular the HadRM3P regional climate model was used to downscale five members of a perturbed physics ensemble of global climate projections obtained using HadCM3 general circulation model and the SRES A1B scenario. A delta change factor approach was then used in conjunction with the observed climate data to assess the impact on vegetation structure and ecological processes to the year 2100 using LPJ-GUESS. The resulting changes to productivity, vegetation structure and hydrology are discussed. Eventually these results will be combined with complementary studies concerning wildfire and erosion to produce a risk map for informing policy-makers.

Forrest, Matthew; Dönmez, Cenk; Çilek, Ahmet; Akif Erdogan, Mehmet; Buontempo, Carlo; Hickler, Thomas

2014-05-01

351

Dynamic Integrated Climate Change Model (DICE)  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Dynamic Integrated Climate Change (DICE) model assumes a single world producer must chose levels for three simultaneously determined variables: current consumption, investment, and greenhouse gases reduction. The model is freely available in both a GAMS and Excel version. DICE allows both science and economics instructors to integrate a sophisticated economic model of climate change into their courses. The simulation is for upper-division courses where students have some background in microeconomics. The principle developer is William Nordhaus at Yale University.

Blecha, Betty J.

352

Engaging the Public in Climate Change Research  

Microsoft Academic Search

Providing opportunities for individuals to contribute to a better understanding of climate change is the hallmark of Project BudBurst (www.budburst.org). This highly successful, national citizen science program, currently finishing its third year, is bringing climate change education outreach to thousands of individuals. Project BudBurst is a national citizen science initiative designed to engage the public in observations of phenological (life

K. K. Meymaris; S. Henderson; P. Alaback; K. Havens; J. Schwarz Ballard

2009-01-01

353

Adaptation to climate change: European agriculture  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is considered as one of the main environmental problems of the 21st<\\/sup> century. Assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture suggest that in northern Europe crop yields increase and possibilities for new crops and varieties emerge. In southern Europe, adverse effects are expected. Here, projected increases in water shortage reduce crop yields and the area for cropping,

P. Reidsma

2007-01-01

354

Climate Change Adaptation as a Social Process  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a Research on the impacts of climate change suggests that developed countries are not immune to the effects of a changing climate.\\u000a The assumption that because of their high adaptive capacity, developed countries will adapt effectively is beginning to be\\u000a dispelled by empirical evidence. While advancements in projections have facilitated a move from the study of impacts to concrete\\u000a adaptation strategies,

Johanna Wolf

355

Overview: Climate Change Adaptation in Industry  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a The success of private industry has long been sensitive to weather conditions. Accordingly, companies regularly adjust their\\u000a business practices with change in the weather and the climate. Accelerating climate change increases the importance for industry\\u000a to manage weather risks, and it adds to the difficulty of this process. Case studies presented in this book from the electricity,\\u000a construction, insurance, and

Paul Kovacs

356

Climate change: potential impact on plant diseases  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global climate has changed since pre-industrial times. Atmospheric CO2, a major greenhouse gas, has increased by nearly 30% and temperature has risen by 0.3 to 0.6°C. The intergovernmental panel on climate change predicts that with the current emission scenario, global mean temperature would rise between 0.9 and 3.5°C by the year 2100. There are, however, many uncertainties that influence these

S Chakraborty; A. V Tiedemann; P. S Teng

2000-01-01

357

Beyond Brainstorming: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Strategies  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate Change Adaptation for Water Managers; Oracle, Arizona, 4-5 February 2008; The most visible manifestation of climate change in the American Southwest is its effects on water resources. Since 1999, the region's water supplies and major rivers have been tested by burgeoning population growth and drought. Model projections suggest increasing drought severity and duration due to rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and enhanced atmospheric circulation from the tropics (Hadley circulation).

Garfin, Gregg; Jacobs, Katharine; Buizer, James

2008-06-01

358

Contributions of psychology to limiting climate change.  

PubMed

Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological contributions, summarizes what psychology has learned, and sets out an agenda for making additional contributions. It emphasizes that the greatest potential for contributions from psychology comes not from direct application of psychological concepts but from integrating psychological knowledge and methods with knowledge from other fields of science and technology. PMID:21553955

Stern, Paul C

2011-01-01

359

Physical basis for climate change models  

SciTech Connect

The objectives for this research were two-fold: To identify means of using measurements of the outgoing radiation stream from earth to identify mechanisms of climate change; and to develop a flexible radiation code based upon the correlated-k method to enable rapid and accurate calculations of the outgoing radiation. The intended products are three papers and a radiation code. The three papers are to be on Entropy fluxes and the dissipation of the climate system, Radiation fingerprints of climate change, and A rapid correlated-k code.

Goody, R.; Gerstell, M.

1993-10-18

360

Leaf morphology shift linked to climate change.  

PubMed

Climate change is driving adaptive shifts within species, but research on plants has been focused on phenology. Leaf morphology has demonstrated links with climate and varies within species along climate gradients. We predicted that, given within-species variation along a climate gradient, a morphological shift should have occurred over time due to climate change. We tested this prediction, taking advantage of latitudinal and altitudinal variations within the Adelaide Geosyncline region, South Australia, historical herbarium specimens (n = 255) and field sampling (n = 274). Leaf width in the study taxon, Dodonaea viscosa subsp. angustissima, was negatively correlated with latitude regionally, and leaf area was negatively correlated with altitude locally. Analysis of herbarium specimens revealed a 2 mm decrease in leaf width (total range 1-9 mm) over 127 years across the region. The results are consistent with a morphological response to contemporary climate change. We conclude that leaf width is linked to maximum temperature regionally (latitude gradient) and leaf area to minimum temperature locally (altitude gradient). These data indicate a morphological shift consistent with a direct response to climate change and could inform provenance selection for restoration with further investigation of the genetic basis and adaptive significance of observed variation. PMID:22764114

Guerin, Greg R; Wen, Haixia; Lowe, Andrew J

2012-10-23

361

Framing Climate Change to Account for Values  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belief, trust and values are important but generally overlooked in efforts to communicate climate change. Because climate change has often been framed too narrowly as an environmental issue, it has failed to engage segments of the public for whom environmentalism is not an important value. Worse, for some of these people, environmentalism and the policies that accompany it may be seen as a threat to their core values, such as the importance of personal freedoms and the free market. Climate science educators can improve this situation by more appropriately framing climate change as an issue affecting the economy and our most basic human needs: food, water, shelter, security, health, jobs, and the safety of our families. Further, because people trust and listen to those with whom they share cultural values, climate change educators can stress the kinds of values their audiences share. They can also enlist the support of opinion leaders known for holding these values. In addition, incorporating messages about solutions to climate change and their many benefits to economic prosperity, human health, and other values is an important component of meeting this challenge. We must also recognize that local impacts are of greater concern to most people than changes that feel distant in place and time. Different audiences have different concerns, and effective educators will learn what their audiences care about and tailor their messages accordingly.

Hassol, S. J.

2011-12-01

362

Latitudinal temperature gradients and climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The effects of a change in the latitudinal sea surface temperature gradient are investigated in several GCM experiments. Sea surface temperatures are increased\\/decreased in the tropics and polar regions, with little change in the global average surface air temperature. Then the experiments are repeated with colder\\/warmer conditions globally. Expectations generated from these runs are compared with the resulting climate changes

D. Rind

1998-01-01

363

Evaluating Global Climate Change Education Initiative  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Global Climate Change Education initiative (GCCE) is a multi-site effort funded by the National Science Foundation to develop web resources. The objective of curricular modules is to improve content knowledge and change attitudes about climate change among undergraduate science students. The two-year evaluation of the project was conducted by Tim Weston from the University of Colorado. The small-scale evaluation first developed measures for attitude and content about climate change, and then administered the measures online. Analysis of results is ongoing. The evaluator wanted to know the attitudes and content knowledge of students after completing the modules, and if attitudes and content knowledge shifted from pre to post. An additional component of the evaluation focused on student understanding of specific global warming topics after completing the modules. Developing the test and survey involved reviewing existing measures, soliciting content from stakeholders in the grant, and then establishing a content framework that covered the important topics in climate change linked to project curricula. The pilot attitude measure contained fourteen agree/disagree items (I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change), five self-assessment questions (How informed are you about the different causes of climate change? ), and wo previous experience questions about previous science courses taken, and actions related to climate change. The content measure contained 10 multiple-choice items asking about changes in global average temperature, the scientific methods of climate change, and the primary countries and human activities responsible for climate change. Questions were designed to reflect a mixture of general science literacy about climate change and more specific content related knowledge taught in the curricula. Both content and attitude measures were piloted with students, who answered questions using a think-aloud" interview protocol meant to clarify any ambiguous wording or over-specialized vocabulary in the items. Corrected versions of the measures were then given to small groups of students to check for instrument and sub-scale reliability and to learn if any items had ceiling or floor effects. Results from administration of the post attitude survey showed a majority of students in multiple courses agreed with attitude items across the range of topics. For instance, 72 - 90% or students in 8 courses using the modules agreed or strongly agreed with the statement "I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change." A majority of students also agreed with statements such as "Human actions are causing climate change, " and "there is sufficient scientific evidence that climate change is taking place." Where pre/post data was available, average scores across items increased after students used the curricula by an average of .5 on a scale of 1 - 5. Students also scored high on the climate change content measure. Average percentage correct scores per item ranged from 32% to 90%. Average scores also gained by 2 -4 points depending on course.

Weston, T. J.

2011-12-01

364

The climate change and energy security nexus  

SciTech Connect

The study of the impacts of climate change on national and interna-tional security has grown as a research field, particularly in the last five years. Within this broad field, academic scholarship has concentrated primarily on whether climate change is, or may become, a driver of violent conflict. This relationship remains highly contested. However, national security policy and many non-governmental organizations have identified climate change as a threat multiplier in conflict situations. The U.S. Department of Defense and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense have incorporated these findings into strategic planning documents such as the Quadrennial Defense Review and the Strategic Defence and Security Review. In contrast to the climate-conflict nexus, our analysis found that academic scholarship on the climate change and energy security nexus is small and more disciplinarily focused. In fact, a search of social science litera-ture found few sources, with a significant percentage of these works attribut-able to a single journal. Assuming that policymakers are more likely to rely on broader social science literature than technical or scientific journals, this leaves a limited foundation. This then begged the question: what are these sources? We identified a body of grey literature on the nexus of climate change and energy security of a greater size than the body of peer-reviewed social science literature. We reviewed fifty-eight recent reports, issue briefs, and transcripts to better understand the nexus of climate change and energy security, as well as to gain insight about the questions policymakers need answered by those undertaking the research. In this article, we describe the nature of the sources reviewed, highlight possible climate change and energy security linkages found within those sources, identify emerging risks, and offer conclusions that can guide further research.

King, Marcus Dubois [George Washington University; Gulledge, Jay [ORNL

2013-01-01

365

74 FR 1666 - U.S. Climate Change Science Program Draft Unified Synthesis Product Report: Global Climate Change...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...Administration RIN 0648-XM56 U.S. Climate Change Science Program Draft Unified Synthesis Product Report: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States AGENCY...of the report titled, U.S. Climate Change Science Program Unified...

2009-01-13

366

73 FR 41042 - U.S. Climate Change Science Program Draft Unified Synthesis Product Report: Global Climate Change...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...Administration RIN 0648-XJ11 U.S. Climate Change Science Program Draft Unified Synthesis Product Report: Global Climate Change in the United States AGENCY...draft report titled, U.S. Climate Change Science Program Unified...

2008-07-17

367

73 FR 75678 - U.S. Climate Change Science Program Draft Unified Synthesis Product: Global Climate Change...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...Administration RIN 0648-XM13 U.S. Climate Change Science Program Draft Unified Synthesis Product: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States AGENCY...production schedule for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Unified...

2008-12-12

368

Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for california wildfire, and their intersection with a range of development scenarios for California.

Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

2008-12-01

369

Climate Change, Societal Transitions and Changing Infectious Disease Burdens  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a Human health is directly and indirectly influenced by the effects of climate change – air and sea temperatures, rainfall and\\u000a more frequent and severe climate extremes. These effects do not impact on human populations uniformly, however, and this chapter\\u000a looks at the interplay between climate and the different lifestyles that follow societal transitions, from hunting and gathering,\\u000a through agriculture, industrialisation

Emily Fearnley; Philip Weinstein; John Dodson

370

Climate change risk analysis framework (CCRAF) a probabilistic tool for analyzing climate change uncertainties  

Microsoft Academic Search

Potential risks of human-induced climate change are subject to a three-fold uncertainty associated with: the extent of future anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions; global and regional climatic responses to emissions; and impacts of climatic changes on economies and the biosphere. Long-term analyses are also subject to uncertainty regarding how humans will respond to actual or perceived changes, through adaptation or

J. Legget; W. Pepper; A. Sankovski; J. Smith; R. Tol; T. Wigley

2003-01-01

371

Marine Ecosystem Sensitivity to Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

that the earth is experienc-ing a period of rapid cli-mate change. Never before has it been so important to understand how environmental change influences the earth's biota and to distinguish an-thropogenic change from natural variability. Long-term studies in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region provide the opportunity to observe how changes in the physical environment are related to changes in

Raymond C. Smith; David Ainley; Karen Baker; Eugene Domack; Steve Emslie; Bill Fraser; James Kennett; Amy Leventer; Ellen Mosley-Thompson; Sharon Stammerjohn; Maria Vernet

1999-01-01

372

Solar ultraviolet radiation in a changing climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The projected large increases in damaging ultraviolet radiation as a result of global emissions of ozone-depleting substances have been forestalled by the success of the Montreal Protocol. New challenges are now arising in relation to climate change. We highlight the complex interactions between the drivers of climate change and those of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the positive and negative feedbacks among climate, ozone and ultraviolet radiation. These will result in both risks and benefits of exposure to ultraviolet radiation for the environment and human welfare. This Review synthesizes these new insights and their relevance in a world where changes in climate as well as in stratospheric ozone are altering exposure to ultraviolet radiation with largely unknown consequences for the biosphere.

Williamson, Craig E.; Zepp, Richard G.; Lucas, Robyn M.; Madronich, Sasha; Austin, Amy T.; Ballaré, Carlos L.; Norval, Mary; Sulzberger, Barbara; Bais, Alkiviadis F.; McKenzie, Richard L.; Robinson, Sharon A.; Häder, Donat-P.; Paul, Nigel D.; Bornman, Janet F.

2014-06-01

373

Explaining Climate Change - a Global Educational Initiative  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Understanding and responding to human caused climate change is one of the defining challenges facing humanity in the early 21st century. The need to both educate our youth and equip them to take decisive and effective action must become a critical focus of education. To this end we present www.explainingclimatechange.ca - a comprehensive learning package that presents the underlying science of climate change to a global student cohort aged 16 - 19 years. The materials within this resource include many interactive components that encourage an active learning approach to understanding the evidential bases for the science of climate change as well as tools enabling students to begin to develop mitigation strategies to reduce human impact on climate. These materials are a joint International Year of Chemistry legacy project of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry, UNESCO, the American Chemical Society, the Royal Society of Chemistry and the King's Centre for Visualization in Science.

Martin, B.; Mahaffy, P.; Kirchhoff, M.

2012-12-01

374

Abrupt climate change: Mechanisms, patterns, and impacts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In the span of only a few decades, the global temperature can soar by more than a dozen degrees Celsius, a feat that 20 years ago was considered improbable, if not impossible. But recent research in the nascent field of rapid climate change has upended the dominant views of decades past. Focusing primarily on events during and after the most recent glaciation, from 80,000 years ago, the AGU monograph Abrupt Climate Change: Mechanisms, Patterns, and Impacts, edited by Harunur Rashid, Leonid Polyak, and Ellen Mosley-Thompson, explores the transient climate transitions that were only recently uncovered in climate proxies around the world. In this interview, Eos talks to Harunur Rashid about piecing together ancient climes, the effect of abrupt change on historical civilizations, and why younger researchers may be more worried about modern warming than their teachers.

Schultz, Colin

375

An ecological 'footprint' of climate change  

PubMed Central

Recently, there has been increasing evidence of species' range shifts due to changes in climate. Whereas most of these shifts relate ground truth biogeographic data to a general warming trend in regional or global climate data, we here present a reanalysis of both biogeographic and bioclimatic data of equal spatio-temporal resolution, covering a time span of more than 50 years. Our results reveal a coherent and synchronous shift in both species' distribution and climate. They show not only a shift in the northern margin of a species, which is in concert with gradually increasing winter temperatures in the area, they also confirm the simulated species' distribution changes expected from a bioclimatic model under the recent, relatively moderate climate change.

Walther, Gian-Reto; Berger, Silje; Sykes, Martin T

2005-01-01

376

Prospects for future climate: A special US/USSR report on climate and climate change  

SciTech Connect

Starting with the US-USSR Agreement on Protection of the Environment signed in 1972, the two nations have cooperated in joint research on atmospheric and environmental problems. The result of these efforts has been an innovative approach to projecting future climate change based on what has been learned about past warm periods and what can be learned from models. The chapters in this document explore the following: past changes in climate, both paleoclimatology and changes in the recent past; changes in atmospheric composition; estimates of greenhouse-induced change including the use of both empirical methods and climate models; impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in the two countries; and prospects for future climate changes.

MacCracken, M.C.; Budyko, M.I.; Hecht, A.D.; Izrael, Y.A.

1990-01-01

377

Stained glass and climate change: How are they connected?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As expressions of vernacular architecture, medieval Gothic churches often possess adaptations to their prevailing climate regime. The late medieval period in Europe is also marked by a transition from warm and sunny to cooler and cloudier conditions in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. It is within the context of this climate change that we consider interior daylighting, one of the most important features in Gothic churches, during the transition from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA). For the first time, an extensive data set of luminance and illuminance measurements has been collected in Gothic churches in France, Germany, and Spain. In addition, in order to determine the light-admitting capacity of windows from different eras, recent advances in HDR imagery were used to construct luminance fields and determine the relative transmissivities of authentic medieval windows. This quantitative overview reveals a significant increase in the use of high-translucency glazing, raising interior lighting levels by as much as an order of magnitude as precipitation and cloudiness likely increased in the late thirteenth century. Furthermore, we determine that this clearer glass provided limited lighting gains compared to earlier programs under sunny conditions but substantial lighting improvements for cloudy conditions. The results suggest that the human response to naturally-induced climate change, as seen through the lens of architecture, may have been significant in the middle ages, providing important implications for the adaptability of construction in today's greenhouse era.

Simmons, Christopher; Mysak, Lawrence

2010-05-01

378

Climate change and stained glass: how are they connected?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As expressions of vernacular architecture, medieval Gothic churches often possess adaptations to their prevailing climate regime. The late medieval period in Europe is also marked by a transition from warm and sunny to cooler and cloudier conditions in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. It is within the context of this climate change that we consider interior daylighting, one of the most important features in Gothic churches, during the transition from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA). For the first time, an extensive data set of luminance and illuminance measurements has been collected in Gothic churches in France, Germany, and Spain. In addition, in order to determine the light-admitting capacity of windows from different eras, recent advances in HDR imagery were used to construct luminance fields and determine the relative transmissivities of authentic medieval windows. This quantitative overview reveals a significant increase in the use of high-translucency glazing, raising interior lighting levels by as much as an order of magnitude as precipitation and cloudiness increased in the late thirteenth century. Furthermore, we determine that this clearer glass provided limited lighting gains compared to earlier programs under sunny conditions but substantial lighting improvements for cloudy conditions. The results suggest that the human response to naturally-induced climate change, as seen through the lens of architecture, may have been significant in the middle ages, providing important implications for the adaptability of construction in today’s greenhouse era.

Simmons, C. T.; Mysak, L. A.

2009-12-01

379

Navigating Negative Conversations in Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Politically charged public discussions of climate change often lead to polarization as a direct result of many societal, economic, religious and other factors which form opinions. For instance, the general public views climate change as a political discussion rather than a scientific matter. Additionally, many media sources such as websites and mainstream venues and persons have served to promote the "controversy". Scientists who engage in a public discourse of climate change often encounter politically charged environments and audiences. Traditional presentations of the science without attention paid to political, social, or economic matters are likely to worsen the existing divide. An international organization, the Climate Science Rapid Response Team (CSRRT) suggests a strategy that can be used to navigate potentially troublesome situations with divided audiences. This approach can be used during live lecture presentations, and radio, print, or television interviews. The strategy involves identifying alternative motivations for taking action on climate change. The alternative motivations are tailored to the audience and can range from national defense, economic prosperity, religious motivation, patriotism, energy independence, or hunting/fishing reasons. Similar messaging modification can be used to faithfully and accurately convey the importance of taking action on climate change but present the motivations in a way that will be received by the audience.

Mandia, S. A.; Abraham, J. P.; Dash, J. W.; Ashley, M. C.

2012-12-01

380

(running head) Severe Climate Change Going to Extremes: Propositions on the Social Response to Severe Climate Change (in press, Climatic Change )  

Microsoft Academic Search

The growing literature on potentially-dangerous climate change is examined and. research on human response to natural hazards is analyzed to develop propositions on social response pathways likely to emerge in the face of increasingly severe climate change. A typology of climate change severity is proposed and the potential for mal-adaptive responses examined. Elements of a warning system for severe climate

William R. Travis

381

Soil Moisture-Ecosystem-Climate Interactions in a Changing Climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soil moisture is a key variable of the climate system. It constrains plant transpiration and photosynthesis in several regions of the world, with consequent impacts on the water, energy and biogeochemical cycles (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2010). Moreover it is a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the climate system. Finally, it is involved in a number of feedbacks at the local, regional and global scales, and plays a major role in climate-change projections. This presentation will provide an overview on these interactions, based on several recent publications (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2010, Teuling et al. 2010, Hirschi et al. 2011). In particular, it will highlight possible impacts of soil moisture-ecosystem coupling for climate extremes such as heat waves and droughts, and the resulting interconnections between biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks in the context of climate change. Finally, it will also address recent regional- to global-scale trends in land hydrology and ecosystem functioning, as well as issues and potential avenues for investigating these trends (e.g. Jung et al. 2010, Mueller et al. 2011). References Hirschi, M., S.I. Seneviratne, V. Alexandrov, F. Boberg, C. Boroneant, O.B. Christensen, H. Formayer, B. Orlowsky, and P. Stepanek, 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geoscience, 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Jung, M., et al., 2010: Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nature, 467, 951-954. doi:10.1038/nature09396 Mueller, B., S.I. Seneviratne, et al.: Evaluation of global observations-based evapotranspiration datasets and IPCC AR4 simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06402, doi:10.1029/2010GL046230 Orlowsky, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2010: Statistical analyses of land-atmosphere feedbacks and their possible pitfalls. J. Climate, 23(14), 3918-3932 Seneviratne, S.I., T. Corti, E.L. Davin, M. Hirschi, E.B. Jaeger, I. Lehner, B. Orlowsky, and A.J. Teuling, 2010: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth-Science Reviews, 99, 3-4, 125-161, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004 Seneviratne, S.I., D. Lüthi, M. Litschi, and C. Schär, 2006: Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 443, 205-209. Teuling, A.J., S.I. Seneviratne, et al. 2010: Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves. Nature Geoscience, 3, 722-727, doi:10.1038/ngeo950.

Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Teuling, A.

2011-12-01

382

The Climate-G Portal: a scientific gateway for climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate-G is a data-oriented research effort conceived in the context of the EGEE Earth Science Cluster and devoted to the Climate Change community. The testbed is an interdisciplinary effort joining expertise in the field of climate change and computational science. The main goal of Climate-G is to allow scientists carrying out geographical and cross-institutional data discovery, access, visualization and sharing of climate data. The involved partners are: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC, Italy), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL/CNRS, France), Fraunhofer Institut für Algorithmen und Wissenschaftliches Rechnen (SCAI, Germany), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, USA) and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI, USA), University of Reading (Reading, UK), University of Cantabria (UC, Spain), and University of Salento (UniSalento, Italy). The main results of this testbed are the distributed data/metadata architecture (exploiting the GRelC service) and the scientific gateway of the testbed (Climate-G Portal). The latter is a central topic of this contribution. Data distribution comes from the need of sharing data among centres without moving it into a central repository. Each partner can contribute with new datasets to the testbed just adding a new data service into the infrastructure and mapping it on a specific metadata server. The metadata management plays a critical role in such a distributed environment, since it enables search and discovery activities, allows describing and cataloguing datasets, makes data effectively accessible and shareable by the scientific community. The novel grid enabled harvesting system will be presented and discussed showing a map-enabled search page providing aggregated metadata information. Climate-G exploits both grid technologies connected with the EGEE project and domain-based tools and services. The general grid services provide a solid basis at an infrastructural level ensuring great flexibility, scalability and manageability; the domain-based services provide support for domain specific activities (i.e. subsetting of data, map retrieving) and are well known, well tested and widely adopted in the climate change community. The coexistence of grid and domain-related services is an important point to satisfy user requirements on a robust and mature infrastructure. The Climate-G Portal is the scientific gateway of the testbed and it is intended for scientists and researchers that want to carry out search and discovery activities on the available large scale digital library. It provides a ubiquitous and pervasive way to ease data publishing, metadata search & discovery, metadata annotation and validation, data access, etc. The latest updates concerning harvesting functionalities, new analysis tools, the monitoring system and portal extensions will be presented and discussed.

Fiore, S.; Aloisio, G.; Blower, J. D.; Cofino, A.; Denvil, S.; Fox, P. A.; Petitdidier, M.; Schwichtenberg, H.

2010-12-01

383

The Scatterometer Climate Record Pathfinder: Tools for Climate Change Studies  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

While originally designed for wind measurement over the ocean, scatterometers have proven to be very effective in monitoring land cover and ice conditions as well. Scatterometer data is being operationally used for iceberg tracking and sea ice extent mapping. The frequent, global measurements make the instrument particularly well suited for global monitoring and the long-time series of scatterometer measurements dating back to SASS provide a valuable baseline for studies of climate change. For this reason the NASA Scatterometer Climate Record Pathfinder (SCP) project is generating a climate data record from the series of historic and ongoing, and approved scatterometer missions. Selected data is currently available from the SCP at URL http://www.scp.byu.edu/ in the form of resolution-enhanced backscatter image time series. A variety of tools for analyzing the image time series have been developed. The application of QuikSCAT data to climate change in Greenland and sea ice motion in the Arctic is illustrated. By comparing QuikSCAT with NSCAT and SASS data, long-term scatterometer-observed changes in Greenland are related to annual variations in melt extent and snow accumulation. Qu ikSCAT sampling enables high spatial resolution evaluation of the diurnal melt cycle. We demonstrate the value of the scatterometer data to augment passive microwave measurements by using PCA. The scatterometer data plays a key role in helping to discriminate physical changes in the Greenland firn from surface temperature effects.

Long, D. G.; Jensen, M. A.

2001-12-01

384

Management of coastal lagoons under climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global climate change is a reality that is rendering the concept of 'background conditions' meaningless. We can no longer attempt to maintain the environmental status quo. What we can do is to attempt to maintain ecosystem services despite climate-driven environmental change. There is a pressing need for proactive management that purposefully changes ecosystems to maintain ecosystem services before uncontrolled, detrimental changes occur. Such management would go beyond the bounds of current management efforts and could include, for example, introduction of species, bioengineering, and physical engineering. I suggest that this approach be applied first to coastal lagoons as they are clearly defined geographic areas where this approach can, hopefully, be demonstrated such that it can be applied more widely - when it is accepted, which unfortunately will most probably not occur until the adverse impacts of global climate change become much more apparent.

Chapman, Peter M.

2012-09-01

385

Climate Change Policy, and Policy Change in China  

Microsoft Academic Search

Solving the climate change problem by limiting global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will necessitate action by the world’s two largest emitters, the United States and China. Neither has so far committed to quantitative emissions limits. Some argue that China cannot be engaged on the basis of its national interest in climate policy, on the ground that China’s national net benefits

Jonathan B. Wiener

2008-01-01

386

Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A variety of methods are available to estimate values of meteorological variables at future times and at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. One commonly used method is Change Factor Methodology (CFM), sometimes referred to as delta change factor methodology. Although more sophisticated methods exist, CFM is still widely applicable and used in impact analysis studies. While there are a number of different ways by which change factors (CFs) can be calculated and used to estimate future climate scenarios, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. In this study several categories of CFM (additive versus multiplicative and single versus multiple) for a number of climate variables are compared and contrasted. The study employs several theoretical case studies, as well as a real example from Cannonsville watershed, which supplies water to New York City, USA. Results show that in cases when the frequency distribution of Global Climate Model (GCM) baseline climate is close to the frequency distribution of observed climate, or when the frequency distribution of GCM future climate is close to the frequency distribution of GCM baseline climate, additive and multiplicative single CFMs provide comparable results. Two options to guide the choice of CFM are suggested. The first option is a detailed methodological analysis for choosing the most appropriate CFM. The second option is a default method for use under circumstances in which a detailed methodological analysis is too cumbersome.

Anandhi, Aavudai; Frei, Allan; Pierson, Donald C.; Schneiderman, Elliot M.; Zion, Mark S.; Lounsbury, David; Matonse, Adao H.

2011-03-01

387

Rock-magnetic properties of Eemian maar lake sediments from Massif Central, France: a climatic signature?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The hypothesis of a climate variability within the last interglacial (Eemian), suggested by oxygen isotope data of a Greenland ice core (GRIP) was later supported by magnetic susceptibility, organic matter and pollen signatures in the Eemian lake sediments of the Lac du Bouchet (France). In the present paper, we analyse in detail the rock-magnetic properties of these sediments in order to determine the origin of the magnetic susceptibility variations. Furthermore, in order to verify the empirical relation between magnetic susceptibility and climate, we studied two Eemian sequences from neighbouring lakes (Lac St. Front and Ribains maar lake). Rock-magnetic investigations mainly consisted of analyses of anhysteretic and isothermal remanent magnetizations along with hysteresis measurements carried out on pilot samples. Lac du Bouchet susceptibility variations are at least partly affected by postdepositional magnetite dissolution. Lac St. Front sediments show a complex behaviour resulting in partly contradicting interpretations of rock-magnetic parameters. Possible explanations may be the presence of a very fine-grained magnetite or the presence of maghemite. Ribains maar lake sediments show a homogeneous magnetic mineralogy without major variations in most of the rock-magnetic parameters. Susceptibility records of the three lakes were compared under the simplified assumption that magnetic susceptibility mainly reflects variations of the detrital (titano-)magnetite input. Only a poor correlation between the three Eemian susceptibility sequences is observed, suggesting that local effects (including dissolution and dilution effects) may have altered the original detrital (climatic) signal. The purely detrital origin of the Lac du Bouchet Eemian susceptibility variations must thus be questioned but it nevertheless appears to be the only lake whose susceptibility variations can tentatively be correlated with the GRIP Eemian oxygen isotope record.

Stockhausen, Hagen; Thouveny, Nicolas

1999-11-01

388

Amazon deforestation and climate change  

SciTech Connect

A coupled numerical model of the global atmosphere and biosphere has been used to assess the effects of Amazon deforestation on the regional and global climate. When the tropical forests in the model were replaced by degraded grass (pasture), there was a significant increase in surface temperature and a decrease in evapotranspiration and precipitation over Amazonia. In the simulation, the length of the dry season also increased; such an increase could make reestablishment of the tropical forests after massive deforestation particularly difficult. 31 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Shukla, J.; Nobre, C.; Sellers, P. (Univ. of Maryland, College Park (USA))

1990-03-16

389

Unit Plans: Earth's Climate Changes  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Unit plans for Grades K-2 and 3-5 are a regular feature of the magazine Beyond Weather and the Water Cycle. The plans draw on articles and resources in a themed issue and are aligned with national science and language arts standards. This unit is designed to provide elementary students with the opportunity to investigate how the annual rings in trees help scientists learn about past climates. It uses hands-on experiences and nonfiction text to answer the unit question: How do trees help scientists learn about the past?

Fries-Gaither, Jessica

2011-07-01

390

Climate Change in Voyageurs National Park  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voyageurs National Park was created in 1975. This beautifully forested and lake-dominated landscape shared between Minnesota and Canada has few roads and must be seen by water. The islands and Kabetogama Peninsula are part of the Canadian Shield, some of the oldest exposed rock in the world. Voyageurs National Park boasts many unique landscape and climatic attributes, and like most mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere climate change is in play there. The statistical signals of change in the climate record are evident from both temperature and precipitation measurements. The history of these measurements goes back over 100 years. Additionally, studies and measurements of the lakes and general ecosystem already show some consequences of these climate changes. Mean temperature measurements are generally warmer than they once were, most notably in the winter season. Minimum temperatures have changed more than maximum temperatures. Precipitation has trended upward, but has also changed in character with greater frequency and contribution from thunderstorm rainfalls across the park. In addition variability in annual precipitation has become more amplified, as the disparity between wet and dry years has grown wider. Some changes are already in evidence in terms of bird migration patterns, earlier lake ice-out dates, warmer water temperatures with more algal blooms, decline in lake clarity, and somewhat longer frost-free seasons. Climate change will continue to have impacts on Voyageurs National Park, and likely other national parks across the nation. Furthermore scientists may find that the study, presentation, and discussion about climate impacts on our national parks is a particularly engaging way to educate citizens and improve climate literacy as we contemplate what adaptation and mitigation policies should be enacted to preserve the quality of our national parks for future generations.

Seeley, M. W.

2011-12-01

391

Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The principles of systematic conservation planning are now widely used by governments and non-government organizations alike to develop biodiversity conservation plans for countries, states, regions, and ecoregions. Many of the species and ecosystems these plans were designed to conserve are now being affected by climate change, and there is a critical need to incorporate new and complementary approaches into these plans that will aid species and ecosystems in adjusting to potential climate change impacts. We propose five approaches to climate change adaptation that can be integrated into existing or new biodiversity conservation plans: (1) conserving the geophysical stage, (2) protecting climatic refugia, (3) enhancing regional connectivity, (4) sustaining ecosystem process and function, and (5) capitalizing on opportunities emerging in response to climate change. We discuss both key assumptions behind each approach and the trade-offs involved in using the approach for conservation planning. We also summarize additional data beyond those typically used in systematic conservation plans required to implement these approaches. A major strength of these approaches is that they are largely robust to the uncertainty in how climate impacts may manifest in any given region.

Groves, Craig R.; Game, Edward T.; Anderson, Mark G.; Cross, Molly; Enquist, Carolyn; Ferdana, Zach; Girvetz, Evan; Gondor, Anne; Hall, Kimberly R.; Higgins, Jonathan; Marshall, Rob; Popper, Ken; Schill, Steve; Shafer, Sarah L.

2012-01-01

392

Global fish production and climate change  

SciTech Connect

Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

Brander, K.M. [International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2007-12-11

393

Global fish production and climate change  

PubMed Central

Current global fisheries production of ?160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

Brander, K. M.

2007-01-01

394

Can ice sheets trigger abrupt climatic change?  

SciTech Connect

The discovery in recent years of abrupt climatic changes in climate proxy records from Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, and from other sites around the world, has diverted attention from gradual insolation changes caused by Earth`s orbital variations to more rapid processes on Earth`s surface as forcing Quaternary climatic change. In particular, forcing by ice sheets has been quantified for a major ice stream that drained the Laurentide Ice Sheet along Hudson Strait. The history of these recent discoveries leading to an interest in ice sheets is reviewed, and a case is made that ice sheets may drive abrupt climatic change that is virtually synchronous worldwide. Attention is focused on abrupt inception and termination of a Quaternary glaciation cycle, abrupt changes recorded as stadials and interstadials within the cycle, abrupt changes in ice streams that trigger stadials and interstadials, and abrupt changes in the Laurentide Ice Sheet linked to effectively simultaneous abrupt changes in its ice streams. Remaining work needed to quantify further these changes is discussed. 90 refs., 14 figs.

Hughes, T. [Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States)

1996-11-01

395

The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth's climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m-2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity), suggesting that Earth's climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

Engels, Stefan; van Geel, Bas

2012-07-01

396

Shifting seasons, climate change and ecosystem consequences  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In recent decades, the seasonal timing of many biological events (e.g. flowering, breeding, migration) has shifted. These phenological changes are believed to be one of the most conspicuous biological indicators of climate change. Rates and directions of phenological change have differed markedly among species, potentially threatening the seasonal synchrony of key species interactions and ultimately ecosystem functioning. Differences in phenological change among-species at different trophic levels, and with respect to other broad species traits, are likely to be driven by variations in the climatic sensitivity of phenological events. However, as yet, inconsistencies in analytical methods have hampered broad-scale assessments of variation in climate sensitivity among taxonomic and functional groups of organisms. In this presentation, results will be presented from a current collaborative project (http://www.ceh.ac.uk/sci_programmes/shifting-seasons-uk.html) in which many UK long-term data sets are being integrated in order to assess relationships between temperature/precipitation, and the timing of seasonal events for a wide range of plants and animals. Our aim is to assess which organism groups (in which locations/habitats) are most sensitive to climate. Furthermore, the role of anthropogenic climate change as a driver of phenological change is being assessed.

Thackeray, Stephen; Henrys, Peter; Hemming, Deborah; Huntingford, Chris; Bell, James; Leech, David; Wanless, Sarah

2014-05-01

397

Will climate change increase transatlantic aviation turbulence?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atmospheric turbulence causes most weather-related aircraft incidents. Commercial aircraft encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year world-wide, injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing airlines tens of millions of dollars, and causing structural damage to planes. Clear-air turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar. Clear-air turbulence is linked to atmospheric jet streams, which are projected to be strengthened by anthropogenic climate change. However, the response of clear-air turbulence to climate change has not previously been studied. Here we show using computer simulations that clear-air turbulence changes significantly within the transatlantic flight corridor when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled. At cruise altitudes within 50-75°N and 10-60°W in winter, most clear-air turbulence measures show a 10-40% increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40-170% increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence. Our results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by the middle of this century. Journey times may lengthen and fuel consumption and emissions may increase. Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate, but our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation.

Williams, Paul; Joshi, Manoj

2013-04-01

398

Climate change influence on catchment sediment yield  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The effects of a change in climate are expected to be recognizable in many environmental aspects even at small spatial scales: atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, air temperature, precipitation pattern (days of snowfall translate in days of rainfall), rainfall intensity and erosivity. As a consequence, strong modifications may affect the rate of evapo-transpiration, infiltration and plant biomass production, but also of the soil erosion. To which extent climate change may affect runoff production, soil erosion and sediment transport in upland catchments is investigated here by combining data of long term precipitation, sediment yield and future climate change provided by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with a spatially distributed modeling approach to flow generation and surface erosion. The model accounts for changes in the structure and properties of soil and vegetation cover by combining the tube-flux approach to the topographic watershed partitioning through a parsimonious parametrization of the main hydrological processes. This model is used to predict hydrological and sediment fluxes for three small catchments in Saint Gabriel mountains of Southern California under control and climate change conditions. Simulation runs using a 45 years long record of hourly precipitation, both observed and referred to a future scenario, show that climate change may induce a significant modification in the catchment response to storms, with major effects on erosion and flood flows.

Rulli, Maria Cristina; Grossi, Giovanna

2010-05-01

399

Learning from Expert Elicitation in Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Since the early 1990's the author has been involved in the design and execution of six detailed expert elicitations that, among other things, have obtained subjective judgments from experts that reflect their best judgment in the form of subjective probability density functions, about the value of key climate variables, climate impacts and a technology for mitigation (Morgan and Keith, 1995; Morgan Pitelka and Shevliakova, 2001; Morgan, Adams and Keith, 2006; Zickfeld et al, 2007; Curtright, Morgan and Keith, 2008; Zickfeld, Morgan Keith and Frame, in review). This paper builds on that experience to draw insights about the design and use of expert elicitation in the assessment and analysis of climate change and its impacts. Several trends in responses will be noted. Methodological pitfalls will be discussed. Comparisons will be drawn with the consensus-based methods employed by IPCC, which appear to have produced tighter uncertainty bounds than individual elicitation. The paper will close with thoughts on the possible use of expert elicitation in future IPCC assessments. Support for this work is from the Climate Decision Making Center through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation (SES-0345798) and Carnegie Mellon University. References: M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts," Environmental Science & Technology, 29(10), 468A-476A, October 1995. M. Granger Morgan, Louis F. Pitelka and Elena Shevliakova, "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems," Climatic Change, 49, 279-307, 2001. M. Granger Morgan, Peter Adams, and David W. Keith, "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Aerosol Forcing," Climatic Change, 75, 195-214, 2006. Kirsten Zickfeld, Anders Levermann, Till Kuhlbrodt. Stefan Rahmstorf, M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Expert Judgements on the Response on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Climate Change," Climatic Change, 82, 235-265, 2007. Aimee Curtright, M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Expert Assessment of Future Photovoltaic Technology, " Environmental Science & Technology, 42(24), 2008. Kirsten Zickfeld, M. Granger Morgan , David Frame, David W. Keith, "Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing," in review at PNAS.

Morgan, M. G.

2009-12-01

400

Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.

Bills, Bruce G.

1992-01-01

401

Pacific Islands Climate Change Virtual Library  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Climate-related resources useful to coastal managers currently can be found in a variety of sources. Unfortunately, these sources are scattered in different locations, making access difficult and time-consuming. This site was developed to improve access to climate resources for managers in the Pacific Islands region. Originally designed to meet the needs of decision makers in Samoa and American Samoa, this site will likely be of value throughout the region, as different managers in the Pacific Islands often wrestle with the same issues. The Virtual Library provides access to web-based climate change tools including case studies, guidebooks, and methodologies for assessing vulnerabilities.

2010-01-01

402

Remote sensing and global climate change  

SciTech Connect

This book, based on lectures from the Dundee Summer Schools in Remote Sensing in 1992, focuses on aspects of remote sensing related to climatic change. The organization of the book focuses on particular parts of the climate system and then discusses the different satellite systems relevant to their measurement. The following subject areas are included in the book: background information about the climate system and remote sensing; atmospheric applications in both lower and upper atmosphere; land surface including snow and ice, altimetry in Antarctica, land surface energy budget and albedo; marine science; ecological monitoring in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Vaughan, A.; Cracknell, A.P. [eds.

1994-12-31

403

Climate Change Impacts on the United States  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Sponsored by the US Global Change Research Project, this site contains the much-publicized draft report of the Climate Change Impacts on the United States National Assessment Project. This landmark project investigates the impacts of global climate change at a regional scale. The report includes an overview from the fourteen-member National Assessment Synthesis Team and the full text of the draft report containing information about the effects of climate change on specific regions of the United States and the future of the country's ecosystems. The text is in .pdf format and is accompanied by color figures and tables. The report has been put online for public review and a comments page with instructions for submitting responses via email is included.

404

Changes in ecologically critical terrestrial climate conditions.  

PubMed

Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming over the past century, with temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly over land as over the oceans. Here, we review the likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate, including analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate model ensemble. Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st-century global warming that is comparable in magnitude to that of the largest global changes in the past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid. The rate of warming implies a velocity of climate change and required range shifts of up to several kilometers per year, raising the prospect of daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially in the context of extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events, and interactions with other stresses. PMID:23908225

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Field, Christopher B

2013-08-01

405

Mars - Epochal climate change and volatile history  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The epochal climate change and volatile history of Mars are examined, with special attention given to evidence for and mechanisms of long-term climate change. Long-term climate change on Mars is indicated most directly by the presence, age, and distribution of the valley networks. They were almost certainly formed by running water, but it seems more likely that they were formed by groundwater sapping than by rainfall. It is argued to be physically plausible that a higher early intensity of surface insolation caused by a CO2 greenhouse effect could have overcompensated for an early weak sun and raised temperatures to the freezing point near the equator under favorable conditions of obliquity and eccentricity. This could account for the morphological changes.

Fanale, Fraser P.; Postawko, Susan E.; Pollack, James B.; Carr, Michael H.; Pepin, Robert O.

1992-01-01

406

Climate change, water resources and child health.  

PubMed

Climate change is occurring and has tremendous consequences for children's health worldwide. This article describes how the rise in temperature, precipitation, droughts, floods, glacier melt and sea levels resulting from human-induced climate change is affecting the quantity, quality and flow of water resources worldwide and impacting child health through dangerous effects on water supply and sanitation, food production and human migration. It argues that paediatricians and healthcare professionals have a critical leadership role to play in motivating and sustaining efforts for policy change and programme implementation at the local, national and international level. PMID:20403822

Kistin, Elizabeth J; Fogarty, John; Pokrasso, Ryan Shaening; McCally, Michael; McCornick, Peter G

2010-07-01

407

Global lightning activity and climate change  

SciTech Connect

The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCMs) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. We begin with a simple parameterization used to Simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. Then we consider a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0{degrees}C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. We model lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. We present two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9{degrees}C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere (4.2{degrees}C global warming). The results imply a 24%/30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming is discussed. The earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. Finally, we look at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires. In the U.S. the annual mean number of lightning fires could increase by 40% while the area burned may increase by 65% in a 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. On a global scale the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in the tropics.

Price, C.G.

1993-12-31

408

A new global deal on climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

A global target of stabilizing greenhouse-gas concentrations at between 450 and 550 parts per million carbon-dioxide equivalent (ppm CO2e) has proven robust to recent developments in the science and economics of climate change. Retrospective analysis of the Stern Review (2007) suggests that the risks were underestimated, indicating a stabilization target closer to 450 ppm CO2e. Climate policy at the international

Cameron Hepburn; Nicholas Stern

2008-01-01

409

A normative ethical framework in climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The article spells out four domains of international distributive justice and the consequent criteria of equity, the purpose\\u000a being to identify a pluralistic normative ethical framework for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Justice and\\u000a equity should play a major role in favouring collective action against climate change, because the more the various dimensions\\u000a of such action are just, the more

Marco Grasso

2007-01-01

410

Neural Network Modeling in Climate Change Studies  

Microsoft Academic Search

At present, climate change is a “hot topic”, not only in scientific analyses and papers by researchers, but also in wider\\u000a discussions among economists and policy-makers.\\u000a \\u000a In whatever area you are, the role of modeling appears crucial in order to understand the behavior of the climate system and\\u000a to grasp its complexity. Furthermore, once validated on the past, a model

Antonello Pasini

411

Ecological responses to recent climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern

Gian-Reto Walther; Eric Post; Peter Convey; Annette Menzel; Camille Parmesan; Trevor J. C. Beebee; Jean-Marc Fromentin; Ove Hoegh-Guldberg; Franz Bairlein

2002-01-01

412

Climate change and animal health in Africa  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary Climate change is expected to have direct and indirect impacts on African livestock. Direct impacts include increased ambient temperature, floods and droughts. Indirect impacts are the result of reduced availability of water and forage and changes in the environment that promote the spread of contagious diseases through increased contact between animals, or increased survival or availability of the agent

P. Van den Bossche; J. A. W. Coetzer

413

Global climate change and infectious diseases  

Microsoft Academic Search

The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward

Shope

1991-01-01

414

CONTINENTAL SCALE BIOME RESPONSES TO CLIMATIC CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

Current projections of climatic change call for a global average temperature increase of 2.8 to 5.2 degrees C and a 7% to 16% increase in rainfall by about 2030. he potential ecological responses to these changes have been estimated using a variety of techniques, but have general...

415

Effects of climate change on croplands  

EPA Science Inventory

This talk will describe likely changes in temperature and precipitation expected in the northwestern US with global climate change, and their potential impacts on Oregon croplands. The focus will be on the effects of temperature and carbon dioxide on crop productivity, weed cont...

416

CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY: THE ENERGY PREDICAMENT  

Microsoft Academic Search

In an important respect the climate change (global warming) problem is an energy problem. Any policy aimed at substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will require large amounts of carbon free energy as substitutes for abundant fossil fuels. No conceivable rates of improvement in energy efficiency and\\/or changes in lifestyles will obviate the need for vast amounts of carbon free

Chris Green; H. D. Lightfoot

417

Sensitivity of wave energy to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Wave energy will have a key role in meeting renewable energy targets en route to a low carbon economy. However, in common with other renewables, it may be sensitive to changes in climate resulting from rising carbon emissions. Changes in wind patterns are widely anticipated, and this will ultimately alter wave regimes. Indeed, evidence indicates that wave heights have been

Gareth P. Harrison; A. Robin Wallace

2005-01-01

418

Sensitivity of Climate to Changes in NDVI  

Microsoft Academic Search

The sensitivity of global and regional climate to changes in vegetation density is investigated using a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model. The magnitude of the vegetation changes and their spatial distribution are based on natural decadal variability of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Different scenarios using maximum and minimum vegetation cover were derived from satellite records spanning the period 1982-90. Albedo

L. Bounoua; G. J. Collatz; S. O. Los; P. J. Sellers; D. A. Dazlich; C. J. Tucker

2000-01-01

419

Modelling Changes to Crop Yield Under Climate Change Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper presents two sets of quantitative predictions for global soy and maize yields under changes to temperature and precipitation. The climatic changes considered are based on IPCC scenarios A1B and B1 as calculated with a variety of GCMs. One set of crop yield predictions is calculated with the process-based PEGASUS model, the other is based on an empirical climate-analog

J. S. Gerber; D. Deryng; D. K. Ray; N. D. Mueller; J. A. Foley; N. Ramankutty

2010-01-01

420

The changing world of climate change: Oregon leads the states  

SciTech Connect

Following on the heels of recent national and international developments in climate change policy, Oregon`s {open_quote}best-of-batch{close_quote} proceeding has validated the use of CO{sub 2} offsets as a cost-effective means of advancing climate change mitigation goals. The proceeding was a first in several respects and represents a record commitment of funds to CO{sub 2} mitigation by a private entity. In December 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued its Second Assessment Report. The IPCC`s conclusion that {open_quotes}[t]he balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate{close_quotes} fundamentally changed the tenor of the policy debate regarding potential threats associated with global climate change. At the Climate Change Convention`s Conference of the Parties (COP) in Geneva in July 1996, most countries, including the United States, advocated adopting the IPCC report as the basis for swift policy movement toward binding international emissions targets. The next COP, in December 1997, is scheduled to be the venue for the signing of a treaty protocol incorporating such targets. Binding targets would have major consequences for power plant operators in the US and around the world. Recent developments in the state of Oregon show the kinds of measures that may become commonplace at the state level in addressing climate change mitigation. First, Oregon recently completed the first administrative proceeding in the US aimed at offsetting the greenhouse gas emissions of a new power plant. Second, a legislatively mandated energy facility siting task force recently recommended that Oregon adopt a carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) standard for new power plant construction and drop use of the {open_quotes}need for power{close_quotes} standard. This article reviews these two policy milestones and their implications for climate change mitigation in the United States.

Carver, P.H.; Sadler, S.; Kosloff, L.H.; Trexler, M.C.

1997-05-01

421

Probabilistic Climate Change Projections of Nearshore Wave Climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The characterization of local wave climate in a particular location is of paramount importance for the estimation of coastal flooding. Downscaling is the method to obtain wave climate information at high spatial resolution from relatively coarse resolution. Dynamic downscaling, based on the use of numerical wave generation and propagation models, is perhaps the most widely used methodology. An alternative approach is statistical downscaling that can be conducted by means of regression methods or weather pattern-based approaches. The main advantages of the statistical against the dynamical approach are the ease of implementation and the low computational requirements. Moreover, the statistical downscaling allows the reconstruction of local wave climates from multiple runs of several Climate Models. Therefore, the estimation of a multi-model local wave climate for a probabilistic climate change projection is possible. We propose a statistical downscaling method, Y=f(x), based on the local wave characteristics (predictand ) which are conditioned to a particular synoptic-scale weather type (predictor ). The selected predictor is the n-days-averaged sea level pressure anomaly (SLP). The downscaling relies on the correspondence between local sea-state parameters and weather types (Menendez et al., 2011). The method has been validated by using a high-resolution near-shore wave reanalysis in the Spanish Coast. The near-shore reanalysis is achieved by means of a hybrid approach based on statistical (calibration procedures, selection algorithms and multidimensional interpolation schemes) and dynamic downscaling (SWAN propagations), following Camus et al (2011) methodology. Finally, multivariate wave climate parameters (significant wave height, mean period, mean direction and energy flux) for a specific location under several scenarios have been projected by using an ensemble approach.

Menendez, M.; Perez, J.; Mendez, F. J.; Losada, I. J.

2012-04-01