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Sample records for climate change plant

  1. Impact of Climate Change on Plant Disease

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Plant pathogen responses to climate change must be considered within the context of the “disease triangle” in which the pathogen, the host, and the environment are intrinsically connected. In addition to the very basic components being conducive for plant disease to occur, plant pathogens are impac...

  2. Plant phenotypic plasticity in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Nicotra, A B; Atkin, O K; Bonser, S P; Davidson, A M; Finnegan, E J; Mathesius, U; Poot, P; Purugganan, M D; Richards, C L; Valladares, F; van Kleunen, M

    2010-12-01

    Climate change is altering the availability of resources and the conditions that are crucial to plant performance. One way plants will respond to these changes is through environmentally induced shifts in phenotype (phenotypic plasticity). Understanding plastic responses is crucial for predicting and managing the effects of climate change on native species as well as crop plants. Here, we provide a toolbox with definitions of key theoretical elements and a synthesis of the current understanding of the molecular and genetic mechanisms underlying plasticity relevant to climate change. By bringing ecological, evolutionary, physiological and molecular perspectives together, we hope to provide clear directives for future research and stimulate cross-disciplinary dialogue on the relevance of phenotypic plasticity under climate change. PMID:20970368

  3. REVIEW OF "PLANT GROWTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE"

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This paper reviews a recent book on the topic entitled APlant Growth and Climate Change@ edited by James I.L. Morison and Michael D. Morecroft. The authors discuss effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on plant growth and development and on plant water relations. The book gives a generally good ov...

  4. Book Review: Plant Growth and Climate Change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The technical book "Plant Growth and climate Change" (2006. James I.L. Morison and M.D. Morecroft, Eds. Blackwell Publishing. 213 pp.) was reviewed for the scientific readership of the peer-reviewed journal HortScience. The text is well organized into nine independently-authored chapters each of whi...

  5. Urban Plantings: 'Living Laboratories' for Climate Change Response.

    PubMed

    Farrell, Claire; Szota, Christopher; Arndt, Stefan K

    2015-10-01

    Urban plantings are not only valuable resources for understanding 'urban plant physiology' but are 'living laboratories' for understanding plant response to climate change. Therefore, we encourage researchers who currently work in natural ecosystems to consider how urban plantings could enhance their research into plant physiological responses to a changing climate. PMID:26440428

  6. Changes in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rammig, A.; Jonas, T.; Zimmermann, N. E.; Rixen, C.

    2010-06-01

    Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to affect plant phenology and growth. In a unique experiment, climatology and plant growth was monitored for almost a decade at 17 snow meteorological stations in different alpine regions along the Swiss Alps. Regression analyses revealed highly significant correlations between mean air temperature in May/June and snow melt out, onset of plant growth, and plant height. These correlations were used to project plant growth phenology for future climate conditions based on the gridded output of a set of regional climate models runs. Melt out and onset of growth were projected to occur on average 17 days earlier by the end of the century than in the control period from 1971-2000 under the future climate conditions of the low resolution climate model ensemble. Plant height and biomass production were expected to increase by 77% and 45%, respectively. The earlier melt out and onset of growth will probably cause a considerable shift towards higher growing plants and thus increased biomass. Our results represent the first quantitative and spatially explicit estimates of climate change impacts on future growing season length and the respective productivity of alpine plant communities in the Swiss Alps.

  7. Changes in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rammig, A.; Jonas, T.; Zimmermann, N. E.; Rixen, C.

    2009-11-01

    Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to affect plant phenology and growth. In a unique experiment, climatology and plant growth was monitored for almost a decade at 17 snow meteorological stations in different alpine regions along the Swiss Alps. Regression analyses revealed highly significant correlations between mean air temperature in May/June and snow melt-out, onset of plant growth, and plant height. These correlations were used to project plant growth phenology for future climate conditions based on the gridded output of a set of regional climate models runs. Melt-out and onset of growth were projected to occur on average 17 days earlier by the end of the century than in the control period from 1971-2000 under the future climate conditions of the low resolution climate model ensemble. Plant height and biomass production were expected to increase by 77% and 45%, respectively. The earlier melt-out and onset of growth will probably cause a considerable shift towards higher growing plants and thus increased biomass. Our results represent the first quantitative and spatially explicit estimates of climate change impacts on future growing season length and the respective productivity of alpine plant communities in the Swiss Alps.

  8. Will plant movements keep up with climate change?

    PubMed

    Corlett, Richard T; Westcott, David A

    2013-08-01

    In the face of anthropogenic climate change, species must acclimate, adapt, move, or die. Although some species are moving already, their ability to keep up with the faster changes expected in the future is unclear. 'Migration lag' is a particular concern with plants, because it could threaten both biodiversity and carbon storage. Plant movements are not realistically represented in models currently used to predict future vegetation and carbon-cycle feedbacks, so there is an urgent need to understand how much of a problem failure to track climate change is likely to be. Therefore, in this review, we compare how fast plants need to move with how fast they can move; that is, the velocity of climate change with the velocity of plant movement. PMID:23721732

  9. The Climate change caused by the land-plants invasion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Hir, G.; Godderis, Y.; Meyer-Berthaud, B.; Donnadieu, Y.; Ramstein, G.

    2009-04-01

    Land-plants invaded continents during the Mid-Paleozoic. Their spreading and diversification have been compared to the Cambrian explosion in terms of intensity and importance in the Earth life history. If prior studies were focused on the roots system development and its weathering impact, here we used a coupled climate/carbon/vegetation model to investigate impacts of their colonization on surface climate. The simulated climate predicts a significant CO2 drawdown due to an enhanced hydrological cycle which is paradoxically associated with a very small temperature change. Indeed the greenhouse reduction linked to CO2 is counter-acted by a large warming provided by the surface albedo reduction caused by the appearance of an extended plant-cover. If the CO2 is consensually assumed as the main driver of the Phanerozoic climate, this paper demonstrates that, during the land-plants invasion, the soil properties modifications have supplanted the carbon as the primary factor governing the climate.

  10. A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability.

    PubMed

    Reyer, Christopher P O; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja; Wolf, Annett; Bartholomeus, Ruud P; Bonfante, Antonello; de Lorenzi, Francesca; Dury, Marie; Gloning, Philipp; Abou Jaoudé, Renée; Klein, Tamir; Kuster, Thomas M; Martins, Monica; Niedrist, Georg; Riccardi, Maria; Wohlfahrt, Georg; de Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; François, Louis; Menzel, Annette; Pereira, Marízia

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

  11. Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

    PubMed

    Jones, R A C

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. PMID:27112281

  12. Climate change reduces nectar secretion in two common Mediterranean plants.

    PubMed

    Takkis, Krista; Tscheulin, Thomas; Tsalkatis, Panagiotis; Petanidou, Theodora

    2015-01-01

    Global warming can lead to considerable impacts on natural plant communities, potentially inducing changes in plant physiology and the quantity and quality of floral rewards, especially nectar. Changes in nectar production can in turn strongly affect plant-pollinator interaction networks-pollinators may potentially benefit under moderate warming conditions, but suffer as resources reduce in availability as elevated temperatures become more extreme. Here, we studied the effect of elevated temperatures on nectar secretion of two Mediterranean Lamiaceae species-Ballota acetabulosa and Teucrium divaricatum. We measured nectar production (viz. volume per flower, sugar concentration per flower and sugar content per flower and per plant), number of open and empty flowers per plant, as well as biomass per flower under a range of temperatures selected ad hoc in a fully controlled climate chamber and under natural conditions outdoors. The average temperature in the climate chamber was increased every 3 days in 3 °C increments from 17.5 to 38.5 °C. Both study species showed a unimodal response of nectar production (volume per flower, sugar content per flower and per plant) to temperature. Optimal temperature for sugar content per flower was 25-26 °C for B. acetabulosa and 29-33 °C for T. divaricatum. According to our results, moderate climate warming predicted for the next few decades could benefit nectar secretion in T. divaricatum as long as the plants are not water stressed, but have a moderate negative effect on B. acetabulosa. Nevertheless, strong warming as predicted by climate change models for the end of the 21st century is expected to reduce nectar secretion in both species and can thus significantly reduce available resources for both wild bees and honeybees in Mediterranean systems. PMID:26374517

  13. Climate change reduces nectar secretion in two common Mediterranean plants

    PubMed Central

    Takkis, Krista; Tscheulin, Thomas; Tsalkatis, Panagiotis; Petanidou, Theodora

    2015-01-01

    Global warming can lead to considerable impacts on natural plant communities, potentially inducing changes in plant physiology and the quantity and quality of floral rewards, especially nectar. Changes in nectar production can in turn strongly affect plant–pollinator interaction networks—pollinators may potentially benefit under moderate warming conditions, but suffer as resources reduce in availability as elevated temperatures become more extreme. Here, we studied the effect of elevated temperatures on nectar secretion of two Mediterranean Lamiaceae species—Ballota acetabulosa and Teucrium divaricatum. We measured nectar production (viz. volume per flower, sugar concentration per flower and sugar content per flower and per plant), number of open and empty flowers per plant, as well as biomass per flower under a range of temperatures selected ad hoc in a fully controlled climate chamber and under natural conditions outdoors. The average temperature in the climate chamber was increased every 3 days in 3 °C increments from 17.5 to 38.5 °C. Both study species showed a unimodal response of nectar production (volume per flower, sugar content per flower and per plant) to temperature. Optimal temperature for sugar content per flower was 25–26 °C for B. acetabulosa and 29–33 °C for T. divaricatum. According to our results, moderate climate warming predicted for the next few decades could benefit nectar secretion in T. divaricatum as long as the plants are not water stressed, but have a moderate negative effect on B. acetabulosa. Nevertheless, strong warming as predicted by climate change models for the end of the 21st century is expected to reduce nectar secretion in both species and can thus significantly reduce available resources for both wild bees and honeybees in Mediterranean systems. PMID:26374517

  14. Migrate or evolve: options for plant pathogens under climate change.

    PubMed

    Chakraborty, Sukumar

    2013-07-01

    Findings on climate change influence on plant pathogens are often inconsistent and context dependent. Knowledge of pathogens affecting agricultural crops and natural plant communities remains fragmented along disciplinary lines. By broadening the perspective beyond agriculture, this review integrates cross-disciplinary knowledge to show that at scales relevant to climate change, accelerated evolution and changing geographic distribution will be the main implications for pathogens. New races may evolve rapidly under elevated temperature and CO2 , as evolutionary forces act on massive pathogen populations boosted by a combination of increased fecundity and infection cycles under favourable microclimate within enlarged canopy. Changing geographic distribution will bring together diverse lineages/genotypes that do not share common ecological niche, potentially increasing pathogen diversity. However, the uncertainty of model predictions and a lack of synthesis of fragmented knowledge remain as major deficiencies in knowledge. The review contends that the failure to consider scale and human intervention through new technology are major sources of uncertainty. Recognizing that improved biophysical models alone will not reduce uncertainty, it proposes a generic framework to increase focus and outlines ways to integrate biophysical elements and technology change with human intervention scenarios to minimize uncertainty. To synthesize knowledge of pathogen biology and life history, the review borrows the concept of 'fitness' from population biology as a comprehensive measure of pathogen strengths and vulnerabilities, and explores the implications of pathogen mode of nutrition to fitness and its interactions with plants suffering chronic abiotic stress under climate change. Current and future disease management options can then be judged for their ability to impair pathogenic and saprophytic fitness. The review pinpoints improving confidence in model prediction by minimizing uncertainty, developing management strategies to reduce overall pathogen fitness, and finding new sources of data to trawl for climate signatures on pathogens as important challenges for future research. PMID:23554235

  15. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.

    PubMed

    Peterson, A Townsend; Stewart, Aimee; Mohamed, Kamal I; Araújo, Miguel B

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species. PMID:18560572

  16. Plant Migrations Role on Future Carbon Balance from Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.

    2014-12-01

    Current efforts to forecast the future of forested systems often oversimplify or overlook the role of plant migration in carbon balance. Research on plant migrations influence on the carbon balance from climate change has been limited from challenges that arise when the ecosystem characteristics of this fine scale process are modeled over large domains. The computational time required to simulate migration lends itself to studies with representative forests while still limiting domain size. For higher resolution runs without limiting domain size migration was introduced to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. ED is an individual tree based model that uses a size and age-structured approximation for the first moment of the stochastic ecosystem model. Hence it can simulate large domains at high spatial resolution with reduced computational intensity. As it is an approximation, the specific location of an individual tree within a site is unknown so binomial probability of dispersal distance with respect to patch size was added to the model to determine when migration to a new site should occur. Migration probability also depends on the number of months reproduction occurs at a given site for deciduous and evergreen plant functional types. The maximum paleoecological data migration rate of 100 km per century was used for both functional types and calibrated in ED in a test domain of the eastern United States. After validation, meteorological data from NARCCAP for current and future climate were used to simulate migration at three rates (none, instantaneous and 100 km per century) with a North America domain at quarter degree resolution. Comparison of scenarios highlights plant migrations role on the terrestrial carbon balance under climate change simulations, particularly with regard to transition zones where biomes are expected to expand and contract.

  17. Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant

    PubMed Central

    Alexander, Jake M.

    2013-01-01

    A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species. PMID:23902908

  18. Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

    PubMed

    Alexander, Jake M

    2013-09-22

    A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species. PMID:23902908

  19. Genetic consequences of climate change for northern plants

    PubMed Central

    Alsos, Inger Greve; Ehrich, Dorothee; Thuiller, Wilfried; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Tribsch, Andreas; Schnswetter, Peter; Lagaye, Claire; Taberlet, Pierre; Brochmann, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Climate change will lead to loss of range for many species, and thus to loss of genetic diversity crucial for their long-term persistence. We analysed range-wide genetic diversity (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) in 9581 samples from 1200 populations of 27 northern plant species, to assess genetic consequences of range reduction and potential association with species traits. We used species distribution modelling (SDM, eight techniques, two global circulation models and two emission scenarios) to predict loss of range and genetic diversity by 2080. Loss of genetic diversity varied considerably among species, and this variation could be explained by dispersal adaptation (up to 57%) and by genetic differentiation among populations (FST; up to 61%). Herbs lacking adaptations for long-distance dispersal were estimated to lose genetic diversity at higher rate than dwarf shrubs adapted to long-distance dispersal. The expected range reduction in these 27 northern species was larger than reported for temperate plants, and all were predicted to lose genetic diversity according to at least one scenario. SDM combined with FST estimates and/or with species trait information thus allows the prediction of species' vulnerability to climate change, aiding rational prioritization of conservation efforts. PMID:22217725

  20. Project BudBurst: People, Plants, and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henderson, S.; Ward, D.; Havens, K.; Gardiner, L. S.; Alaback, P.

    2010-12-01

    Providing opportunities for individuals to contribute to a better understanding of climate change is the hallmark of Project BudBurst (www.budburst.org). This highly successful, national citizen science program, now in its third year, is bringing climate change education outreach to thousands of individuals. Project BudBurst is a national citizen science initiative designed to engage the public in observations of phenological (plant life cycle) events that raise awareness of climate change, and create a cadre of informed citizen scientists. Citizen science programs such as Project BudBurst provide the opportunity for students and interested laypersons to actively participate in scientific research. Such programs are important not only from an educational perspective, but because they also enable scientists to broaden the geographic and temporal scale of their observations. The goals of Project BudBurst are to 1) increase awareness of phenology as an area of scientific study; 2) Increase awareness of the impacts of changing climates on plants; and 3) increase science literacy by engaging participants in the scientific process. From its 2008 launch in February, this on-line educational and data-entry program, engaged participants of all ages and walks of life in recording the timing of the leafing and flowering of wild and cultivated species found across the continent. Thus far, thousands of participants from all 50 states have submitted data. Project BudBurst has been the subject of almost 200 media outlets including NPR, national and regional television broadcasts, and most of the major national and regional newspapers. This presentation will provide an overview of Project BudBurst and will report on the results of the 2009 field campaign and discuss plans to expand Project BudBurst in 2010 including the use of mobile phones applications for data collection and reporting from the field. Project BudBurst co managed by the National Ecological Observatory Network and the Chicago botanic Garden. Financial support has been received from the National Science Foundation, UCLA Center for Embedded network Sensors U.S. Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Geological Survey , National Geographic Education Foundation, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Foundation, and NASA.

  1. Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.; Allen, J. M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Betancourt, J. L.; Travers, S. E.; Pau, S.; Regetz, J.; Davies, T. J.; Kraft, N. J. B.; Ault, T. R.; Bolmgren, K.; Mazer, S. J.; McCabe, G. J.; McGill, B. J.; Parmesan, C.; Salamin, N.; Schwartz, M. D.; Cleland, E. E.

    2012-01-01

    Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

  2. Plant Phenology and Climate Change in the Santa Cruz County

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choudhary, S.; Oshiro, J. R.; Fox, L. R.

    2014-12-01

    Phenology, or the timing of life cycle events, is affected by many variables including climate. To document phenology in grassland and sandhill habitats in Santa Cruz County, we recorded the blooming statuses of all species at 10 sites every 3-4 weeks. These sites were surveyed in the 1990's by botanist Randall Morgan, and have been resurveyed since 2012. We also recorded temperature to examine how it relates to phenology change. We have temperature records dating back to the 1980's from local weather stations, but they do not record data at vegetation height. To compare temperature at the vegetation level with weather station records, we employed data loggers at vegetation height, and recorded soil and leaf temperature. We also measured specific leaf area (SLA), or the ratio of leaf area to the dry mass, for leaves collected in the field because leaf thickness often relates to drought and heat tolerance. We examined the relationship between SLA and phenology differences between the historic and present day surveys; also between groups of species with different ecological traits, including functional group, life cycle, and natives versus non-natives. For the temperature records, preliminary results show that temperatures from the dataloggers and weather stations were significantly correlated. Soil and leaf temperatures are also correlated with data logger temperatures, though not as strongly. Preliminary results show that SLA differs between functional groups, annuals and perennials, and native and non-native species. SLA also relates to whether plants bloom earlier, later, or do not change their phenology over time. Overall, we found that it is important to use multiple sources of temperature data, and that SLA might relate to how different types of plants change their phenology with climate.

  3. Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Allen, Jenica M.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Travers, Steven E.; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Ault, Toby R.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Cleland, Elsa E.

    2012-01-01

    Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

  4. Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

    SciTech Connect

    Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa; Campany, Courtney E; Classen, Aimee T

    2010-01-01

    Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of climate change on soil ecosystem functioning, and hence, these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting how climate change will alter ecosystem functioning.

  5. A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

    PubMed Central

    Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

  6. Rising CO2, Climate Change, and Public Health: Exploring the Links to Plant Biology

    PubMed Central

    Ziska, Lewis H.; Epstein, Paul R.; Schlesinger, William H.

    2009-01-01

    Background Although the issue of anthropogenic climate forcing and public health is widely recognized, one fundamental aspect has remained underappreciated: the impact of climatic change on plant biology and the well-being of human systems. Objectives We aimed to critically evaluate the extant and probable links between plant function and human health, drawing on the pertinent literature. Discussion Here we provide a number of critical examples that range over various health concerns related to plant biology and climate change, including aerobiology, contact dermatitis, pharmacology, toxicology, and pesticide use. Conclusions There are a number of clear links among climate change, plant biology, and public health that remain underappreciated by both plant scientists and health care providers. We demonstrate the importance of such links in our understanding of climate change impacts and provide a list of key questions that will help to integrate plant biology into the current paradigm regarding climate change and human health. PMID:19270781

  7. Climate Change

    MedlinePlus

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  8. Separating the role of biotic interactions and climate in determining adaptive response of plants to climate change.

    PubMed

    Tomiolo, Sara; Van der Putten, Wim H; Tielbörger, Katja

    2015-05-01

    Altered rainfall regimes will greatly affect the response of plant species to climate change. However, little is known about how direct effects of changing precipitation on plant performance may depend on other abiotic factors and biotic interactions. We used reciprocal transplants between climatically very different sites with simultaneous manipulation of soil, plant population origin, and neighbor conditions to evaluate local adaptation and possible adaptive response of four Eastern Mediterranean annual plant species to climate change. The effect of site on plant performance was negligible, but soil origin had a strong effect on fecundity, most likely due to differential water retaining ability. Competition by neighbors strongly reduced fitness. We separated the effects of the abiotic and biotic soil properties on plant performance by repeating the field experiment in a greenhouse under homogenous environmental conditions and including a soil biota manipulation treatment. As in the field, plant performance differed among soil origins and neighbor treatments. Moreover, we found plant species-specific responses to soil biota that may be best explained by the differential sensitivity to negative and positive soil biota effects. Overall, under the conditions of our experiment with two contrasting sites, biotic interactions had a strong effect on plant fitness that interacted with and eventually overrode climate. Because climate and biotic interactions covary, reciprocal transplants and climate gradient studies should consider soil biotic interactions and abiotic conditions when evaluating climate change effects on plant performance. PMID:26236843

  9. Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity

    PubMed Central

    Kissling, W. D.; Field, R.; Korntheuer, H.; Heyder, U.; Böhning-Gaese, K.

    2010-01-01

    Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant–animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic. PMID:20513712

  10. Climate change implications for plant genetic resource conservation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The continued increase in crop productivity has been made possible by numerous advances in agricultural technologies that harness the potential of traits in diverse germplasm. One issue that has garnered much attention in recent times is climate change. Although there are some positive predicted co...

  11. Climate Change and Extreme Weather Impacts on Salt Marsh Plants

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional assessments of climate change impacts on New England demonstrate a clear rise in rainfall over the past century. The number of extreme precipitation events (i.e., two or more inches of rain falling during a 48-hour period) has also increased over the past few decades. ...

  12. Rising CO2, climate change, and public health: Exploring the links to plant biology

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Although the issue of anthropogenic climate forcing and public health is widely recognized, one fundamental aspect has remained underappreciated; the impact of climatic change on plant biology and the well-being of human systems. To critically evaluate the extant and probable links between plant fun...

  13. Terrestrial ecosystems response to climate and climate change: plant migration and the future of forested systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Sahajpal, R.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change alters ecosystem structure and type. A robust understanding of climate-ecosystem relationships can be used to forecast ecosystem structure and distribution from climate change. However, current efforts to forecast future carbon sequestration rates often oversimplify or overlook the role of plant migration and focus on potential vegetation. The difficulty in accounting for landscape complexity, disturbance rates, species-specific interactions, and dispersal properties leads to this oversimplification or non-inclusion of migration when forecasting. Forest gap models can capture many of these processes, but are limited in the size of the domain they simulate because of computational time. For large scale simulations a gap model is often used to represent a much larger domain, potentially failing to capture a number of ecosystem processes as a 30m by 30m gap model may be used to represent a 0.5 x 0.5 degree site. Another method to model migration is to simply leave a fraction of every seed type in every site, which only generates scenarios that represent maximum migration rates. As a solution to these problems we introduced a migration function to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. ED is an individual tree based model that uses a size and age-structured approximation for the first moment of the stochastic ecosystem model. Hence it can simulate large domains without being too computational intensive. However, explicit locations of individual trees in a site are unknown, just the total number of trees in the site. Therefore, we developed a method to pseudo-spatially model migration. A simple simulator was built and it was shown that over a large number of runs expected migration rates can be reproduced. The simulator was placed into ED and climate change scenarios run. With fitted species-specific dispersal kernels the role that plant migration will play in the future of forested systems in North America was identified. Issues that still need to be addressed include the effects of landscape heterogeneity and disturbance on plant migration rates, but preliminary results indicated the role of plant migration in the establishment of future forested systems is currently under-represented in large-scale ecosystem modeling.

  14. Where does the carbon go?Plant carbon allocation under climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Sevanto, Sanna; Dickman, L. Turin

    2015-06-01

    The ability of terrestrial vegetation to both take up and release carbon and water makes understanding climate change effects on plant function critical. These effects could alter the impacts and feedbacks of vegetation on climate and either slow down or accelerate climatic warming (Bonan 2008). In conclusion, studies on plant responses to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and elevated temperatures have become abundant in the last 20 years (for reviews, see Way and Oren 2010, Franks et al. 2013).

  15. Where does the carbon go?–Plant carbon allocation under climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Sevanto, Sanna; Dickman, L. Turin

    2015-06-01

    The ability of terrestrial vegetation to both take up and release carbon and water makes understanding climate change effects on plant function critical. These effects could alter the impacts and feedbacks of vegetation on climate and either slow down or accelerate climatic warming (Bonan 2008). In conclusion, studies on plant responses to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and elevated temperatures have become abundant in the last 20 years (for reviews, see Way and Oren 2010, Franks et al. 2013).

  16. Where does the carbon go?–Plant carbon allocation under climate change

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Sevanto, Sanna; Dickman, L. Turin

    2015-06-01

    The ability of terrestrial vegetation to both take up and release carbon and water makes understanding climate change effects on plant function critical. These effects could alter the impacts and feedbacks of vegetation on climate and either slow down or accelerate climatic warming (Bonan 2008). In conclusion, studies on plant responses to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and elevated temperatures have become abundant in the last 20 years (for reviews, see Way and Oren 2010, Franks et al. 2013).

  17. Climate Change Disproportionately Increases Herbivore over Plant or Parasitoid Biomass

    PubMed Central

    de Sassi, Claudio; Tylianakis, Jason M.

    2012-01-01

    All living organisms are linked through trophic relationships with resources and consumers, the balance of which determines overall ecosystem stability and functioning. Ecological research has identified a multitude of mechanisms that contribute to this balance, but ecologists are now challenged with predicting responses to global environmental changes. Despite a wealth of studies highlighting likely outcomes for specific mechanisms and subsets of a system (e.g., plants, plant-herbivore or predator-prey interactions), studies comparing overall effects of changes at multiple trophic levels are rare. We used a combination of experiments in a grassland system to test how biomass at the plant, herbivore and natural enemy (parasitoid) levels responds to the interactive effects of two key global change drivers: warming and nitrogen deposition. We found that higher temperatures and elevated nitrogen generated a multitrophic community that was increasingly dominated by herbivores. Moreover, we found synergistic effects of the drivers on biomass, which differed across trophic levels. Both absolute and relative biomass of herbivores increased disproportionately to that of plants and, in particular, parasitoids, which did not show any significant response to the treatments. Reduced parasitism rates mirrored the profound biomass changes in the system. These findings carry important implications for the response of biota to environmental changes; reduced top-down regulation is likely to coincide with an increase in herbivory, which in turn is likely to cascade to other fundamental ecosystem processes. Our findings also provide multitrophic data to support the general concern of increasing herbivore pest outbreaks in a warmer world. PMID:22815763

  18. Plant nutrients do not covary with soil nutrients under changing climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Wentao; Elser, James J.; Lü, Xiao-Tao; Wang, Zhengwen; Bai, Edith; Yan, Caifeng; Wang, Chao; Li, Mai-He; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Han, Xingguo; Xu, Zhuwen; Li, Hui; Wu, Yunna; Jiang, Yong

    2015-08-01

    Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) play vital roles in plant growth and development. Yet how climate regimes and soil fertility influence plant N and P stoichiometry is not well understood, especially in the belowground plant parts. Here we investigated plant aboveground and belowground N and P concentrations ([N] and [P]) and their stoichiometry in three dominant genera along a 2200 km long climatic gradient in northern China. Results showed that temperature explained more variation of [N] and [P] in C4 plants, whereas precipitation exerted a stronger influence on [N] and [P] in C3 plants. Both plant aboveground and belowground [N] and [P] increased with decreasing precipitation, and increasing temperatures yet were negatively correlated with soil [N] and [P]. Plant N:P ratios were unrelated with all climate and soil variables. Plant aboveground and belowground [N] followed an allometric scaling relationship, but the allocation of [P] was isometric. These results imply that internal processes stabilize plant N:P ratios and hence tissue N:P ratios may not be an effective parameter for predicting plant nutrient limitation. Our results also imply that past positive relationships between plant and nutrient stocks may be challenged under changing climatic conditions. While any modeling would need to be able to replicate currently observed relationships, it is conceivable that some relationships, such as those between temperature or rainfall and carbon:nutrient ratios, should be different under changing climatic conditions.

  19. Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

    PubMed Central

    Franks, Steven J; Weber, Jennifer J; Aitken, Sally N

    2014-01-01

    As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species’ life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change. PMID:24454552

  20. Holocene Substrate Influences on Plant and Fire Response to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Briles, C.; Whitlock, C. L.

    2011-12-01

    The role of substrates in facilitating plant responses to climate change in the past has received little attention. Ecological studies, documenting the relative role of fertile and infertile substrates in mediating the effects of climate change, lack the temporal information that paleoecological lake studies provide on how plants have responded under equal, larger and more rapid past climate events than today. In this paper, pollen and macroscopic charcoal preserved in the sediments of eight lakes surrounded by infertile ultramafic soils and more fertile soils in the Klamath Mountains of northern California were analyzed. Comparison of late-Quaternary paleoecological sites suggests that infertile and fertile substrates supported distinctly different plant communities. Trees and shrubs on infertile substrates were less responsive to climate change than those on fertile substrates, with the only major compositional change occurring at the glacial/interglacial transition (~11.5ka), when temperature rose 5oC. Trees and shrubs on fertile substrates were more responsive to climate changes, and tracked climate by moving along elevational gradients, including during more recent climate events such as the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Fire regimes were similar until 4ka on both substrate types. After 4ka, understory fuels on infertile substrates became sparse and fire activity decreased, while on fertile substrates forests became increasingly denser and fire activity increased. The complacency of plant communities on infertile sites to climate change contrasts with the individualistic and rapid adjustments of species on fertile sites. The findings differ from observations on shorter time scales that show the most change in herb cover and richness in the last 60 years on infertile substrates. Thus, the paleorecord provides unique long-term ecological data necessary to evaluate the response of plants to future climate change under different levels of soil fertility.

  1. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  2. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  3. Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change.

    PubMed

    Anthelme, Fabien; Cavieres, Lohengrin A; Dangles, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    While there is a large consensus that plant-plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation-climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant-plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change. PMID:25161660

  4. Insect herbivory, plant defense, and early Cenozoic climate change

    PubMed Central

    Wilf, Peter; Labandeira, Conrad C.; Johnson, Kirk R.; Coley, Phyllis D.; Cutter, Asher D.

    2001-01-01

    Insect damage on fossil leaves from the Central Rocky Mountains, United States, documents the response of herbivores to changing regional climates and vegetation during the late Paleocene (humid, warm temperate to subtropical, predominantly deciduous), early Eocene (humid subtropical, mixed deciduous and evergreen), and middle Eocene (seasonally dry, subtropical, mixed deciduous and thick-leaved evergreen). During all three time periods, greater herbivory occurred on taxa considered to have short rather than long leaf life spans, consistent with studies in living forests that demonstrate the insect resistance of long-lived, thick leaves. Variance in herbivory frequency and diversity was highest during the middle Eocene, indicating the increased representation of two distinct herbivory syndromes: one for taxa with deciduous, palatable foliage, and the other for hosts with evergreen, thick-textured, small leaves characterized by elevated insect resistance. Leaf galling, which is negatively correlated with moisture today, apparently increased during the middle Eocene, whereas leaf mining decreased. PMID:11353840

  5. Climate change hampers endangered species through intensified moisture-related plant stresses (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartholomeus, R.; Witte, J.; van Bodegom, P.; Dam, J. V.; Aerts, R.

    2010-12-01

    With recent climate change, extremes in meteorological conditions are forecast and observed to increase globally, and to affect vegetation composition. More prolonged dry periods will alternate with more intensive rainfall events, both within and between years, which will change soil moisture dynamics. In temperate climates, soil moisture, in concert with nutrient availability and soil acidity, is the most important environmental filter in determining local plant species composition, as it determines the availability of both oxygen and water to plant roots. These resources are indispensable for meeting the physiological demands of plants. The consequences of climate change for our natural environment are among the most pressing issues of our time. The international research community is beginning to realise that climate extremes may be more powerful drivers of vegetation change and species extinctions than slow-and-steady climatic changes, but the causal mechanisms of such changes are presently unknown. The roles of amplitudes in water availability as drivers of vegetation change have been particularly elusive owing to the lack of integration of the key variables involved. Here we show that the combined effect of increased rainfall variability, temperature and atmospheric CO2-concentration will lead to an increased variability in both wet and dry extremes in stresses faced by plants (oxygen and water stress, respectively). We simulated these plant stresses with a novel, process-based approach, incorporating in detail the interacting processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. In order to quantify oxygen and water stress with causal measures, we focused on interacting meteorological, soil physical, microbial, and plant physiological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. As both the supply and demand of oxygen and water depend strongly on the prevailing meteorological conditions, both oxygen and water stress were calculated dynamically in time to capture climate change effects. We demonstrate that increased rainfall variability in interaction with predicted changes in temperature and CO2, affects soil moisture conditions and plant oxygen and water demands such, that both oxygen stress and water stress will intensify due to climate change. Moreover, these stresses will increasingly coincide, causing variable stress conditions. These variable stress conditions were found to decrease future habitat suitability, especially for plant species that are presently endangered. The future existence of such species is thus at risk by climate change, which has direct implications for policies to maintain endangered species, as applied by international nature management organisations (e.g. IUCN). Our integrated mechanistic analysis of two stresses combined, which has never been done so far, reveals large impacts of climate change on species extinctions and thereby on biodiversity.

  6. Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Anthelme, Fabien; Cavieres, Lohengrin A.; Dangles, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    While there is a large consensus that plant–plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation–climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant–plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change. PMID:25161660

  7. From Spring to Fall: Life Cycle Responses of Plant Species and Communities to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steltzer, H.; Chong, G.; Weintraub, M. N.

    2013-12-01

    The shifting life cycles of plants in response to environmental changes are well-documented. However, our understanding of the reasons for the shifts remains insufficient for prediction. Complex data sets that include season-long responses of plant species and communities to climate, including extreme climate years and experimental manipulations, are needed to address the gaps in our understanding. Using near-surface sensing technologies and observations of individual species' and plant community responses, we identified season-long shifts of plant life cycles to observed and experimental climate variation. Changes to plant life cycles often included shifts in the timing of spring and fall events for individual species and plant communities, leading to a longer growing season. Community patterns were more predictable than species' responses, although non-native species' responses led to less predictable community patterns. Seasonal patterns of snow cover and water availability influenced the effect of temperature on species' and community life cycles. Multi-factor climate change experiments and data during extreme climate years are essential to determine thresholds by which snow cover and soil water content influence species and community responses to climate warming.

  8. FORECASTING REGIONAL TO GLOBAL PLANT MIGRATION IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rate of future climate change is likely to exceed the migration rates of most plant species. The replacement of dominant species by locally rare species may require decades, and extinctions may occur when plant species cannot migrate fast enough to escape the consequences of...

  9. Plant phenology, resource seasonality and climate change in a Brazilian cerrado savanna

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutierrez de Camargo, Maria Gabriela; de Camargo Guaraldo, André; Reys, Paula; Patrícia Cerdeira Morellato, Leonor

    2010-05-01

    Plant phenology, the study of recurring events and its relationship to climate, contributes with key information for the understanding of forest dynamics and plant resource availability to the fauna. Plant reproduction and growth are affected by proximate factors such as precipitation, temperature and photoperiod, ecological factors such as plant-animal interaction, for instance pollination and seed dispersal, and by phylogeny. Therefore, phenological changes may have enormous consequences for both, plants and animals depending upon the periodical availability of plant resources. The Brazilian tropical savannas, the cerrado, is a highly diverse vegetation with around 70% of the woody flora relaying on animal vectors for pollination and seed dispersal. We consider the cerrado savanna a good model to investigate shifts on tropical phenology and climate change. This vegetation presents a very seasonal phenology shaped by the climate characterized by the alternation of a hot, wet season and a dry, cooler one. The onset of leafing, flowering and fruiting is defined by the duration and intensity of the dry season, and changes on precipitation patterns and dryness may likely affect the plant species reproductive pattern as well as the resource availability to the fauna. In that context, we are carrying out a long-term project to investigate the phenology of growth and reproduction of a cerrado savanna woody community in Southeastern Brazil. Our aim is to understand the cerrado savanna long-term phenological patterns, its relationship to local climate, and whether phenological shifts over time may occur due to variations on climate. We are collecting data on crop size, species abundance and fruit consumption by birds to understand the fruit-frugivore network. Additionally, analyses are underway to explore the relationship among fruit season, fruit production, color and nutritional contents, and the activity of frugivores. Our final goal is to verify at which extension climate change may induce shifts on plant community phenology, affecting the availability of resource, plant-frugivore interactions and the mutualism network.

  10. Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: implications for ecosystem function and stability.

    PubMed

    Dieleman, Catherine M; Branfireun, Brian A; McLaughlin, James W; Lindo, Zoë

    2015-01-01

    The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens. PMID:24957384

  11. Agroecology: Implications for plant response to climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural ecosystems (agroecosystems) represent the balance between the physiological responses of plants and plant canopies and the energy exchanges. Rising temperature and increasing CO2 coupled with an increase in variability of precipitation will create a complex set of interactions on plant ...

  12. A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change.

    PubMed

    Roger, Erin; Duursma, Daisy Englert; Downey, Paul O; Gallagher, Rachael V; Hughes, Lesley; Steel, Jackie; Johnson, Stephen B; Leishman, Michelle R

    2015-08-15

    Predicting the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation of management actions for alien plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate the potential of future changes in climate conditions to influence the distribution of alien plant species. Here, we develop an Australia-wide screening tool to assess the potential of naturalised alien plants to establish and spread under both current and future climatic conditions. The screening tool developed uses five spatially explicit criteria to establish the likelihood of alien plant population establishment and expansion under baseline climate conditions and future climates for the decades 2035 and 2065. Alien plants are then given a threat rating according to current and future threat to enable natural resource managers to focus on those species that pose the largest potential threat now and in the future. To demonstrate the screening tool, we present results for a representative sample of approximately 10% (n = 292) of Australia's known, naturalised alien plant species. Overall, most alien plant species showed decreases in area of habitat suitability under future conditions compared to current conditions and therefore the threat rating of most alien plant species declined between current and future conditions. Use of the screening tool is intended to assist natural resource managers in assessing the threat of alien plant establishment and spread under current and future conditions and thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments for those species that pose the greatest threat. The screening tool is associated with a searchable database for all 292 alien plant species across a range of spatial scales, available through an interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/. PMID:26063516

  13. Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R; Caldwell, Jamie M; Fisher, Micah R; Genco, Brandon M; Running, Steven W

    2015-06-01

    Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people. PMID:26061091

  14. Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability

    PubMed Central

    Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Fisher, Micah R.; Genco, Brandon M.; Running, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people. PMID:26061091

  15. Climate change and plant dispersal along corridors in fragmented landscapes of Mesoamerica

    PubMed Central

    Imbach, Pablo A; Locatelli, Bruno; Molina, Luis G; Ciais, Philippe; Leadley, Paul W

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to biodiversity, and adaptation measures should be considered in biodiversity conservation planning. Protected areas (PA) are expected to be impacted by climate change and improving their connectivity with biological corridors (BC) has been proposed as a potential adaptation measure, although assessing its effectiveness remains a challenge. In Mesoamerica, efforts to preserve the biodiversity have led to the creation of a regional network of PA and, more recently, BC. This study evaluates the role of BC for facilitating plant dispersal between PA under climate change in Mesoamerica. A spatially explicit dynamic model (cellular automaton) was developed to simulate species dispersal under different climate and conservation policy scenarios. Plant functional types (PFT) were defined based on a range of dispersal rates and vegetation types to represent the diversity of species in the region. The impacts of climate change on PA and the role of BC for dispersal were assessed spatially. Results show that most impacted PA are those with low altitudinal range in hot, dry, or high latitude areas. PA with low altitudinal range in high cool areas benefit the most from corridors. The most important corridors cover larger areas and have high altitude gradients. Only the fastest PFT can keep up with the expected change in climate and benefit from corridors for dispersal. We conclude that the spatial assessment of the vulnerability of PA and the role of corridors in facilitating dispersal can help conservation planning under a changing climate. PMID:24101983

  16. Climate change and plant dispersal along corridors in fragmented landscapes of Mesoamerica.

    PubMed

    Imbach, Pablo A; Locatelli, Bruno; Molina, Luis G; Ciais, Philippe; Leadley, Paul W

    2013-09-01

    Climate change is a threat to biodiversity, and adaptation measures should be considered in biodiversity conservation planning. Protected areas (PA) are expected to be impacted by climate change and improving their connectivity with biological corridors (BC) has been proposed as a potential adaptation measure, although assessing its effectiveness remains a challenge. In Mesoamerica, efforts to preserve the biodiversity have led to the creation of a regional network of PA and, more recently, BC. This study evaluates the role of BC for facilitating plant dispersal between PA under climate change in Mesoamerica. A spatially explicit dynamic model (cellular automaton) was developed to simulate species dispersal under different climate and conservation policy scenarios. Plant functional types (PFT) were defined based on a range of dispersal rates and vegetation types to represent the diversity of species in the region. The impacts of climate change on PA and the role of BC for dispersal were assessed spatially. Results show that most impacted PA are those with low altitudinal range in hot, dry, or high latitude areas. PA with low altitudinal range in high cool areas benefit the most from corridors. The most important corridors cover larger areas and have high altitude gradients. Only the fastest PFT can keep up with the expected change in climate and benefit from corridors for dispersal. We conclude that the spatial assessment of the vulnerability of PA and the role of corridors in facilitating dispersal can help conservation planning under a changing climate. PMID:24101983

  17. Non-climatic constraints on upper elevational plant range expansion under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Carissa D.; Vellend, Mark

    2014-01-01

    We are limited in our ability to predict climate-change-induced range shifts by our inadequate understanding of how non-climatic factors contribute to determining range limits along putatively climatic gradients. Here, we present a unique combination of observations and experiments demonstrating that seed predation and soil properties strongly limit regeneration beyond the upper elevational range limit of sugar maple, a tree species of major economic importance. Most strikingly, regeneration beyond the range limit occurred almost exclusively when seeds were experimentally protected from predators. Regeneration from seed was depressed on soil from beyond the range edge when this soil was transplanted to sites within the range, with indirect evidence suggesting that fungal pathogens play a role. Non-climatic factors are clearly in need of careful attention when attempting to predict the biotic consequences of climate change. At minimum, we can expect non-climatic factors to create substantial time lags between the creation of more favourable climatic conditions and range expansion. PMID:25253462

  18. Non-climatic constraints on upper elevational plant range expansion under climate change.

    PubMed

    Brown, Carissa D; Vellend, Mark

    2014-11-01

    We are limited in our ability to predict climate-change-induced range shifts by our inadequate understanding of how non-climatic factors contribute to determining range limits along putatively climatic gradients. Here, we present a unique combination of observations and experiments demonstrating that seed predation and soil properties strongly limit regeneration beyond the upper elevational range limit of sugar maple, a tree species of major economic importance. Most strikingly, regeneration beyond the range limit occurred almost exclusively when seeds were experimentally protected from predators. Regeneration from seed was depressed on soil from beyond the range edge when this soil was transplanted to sites within the range, with indirect evidence suggesting that fungal pathogens play a role. Non-climatic factors are clearly in need of careful attention when attempting to predict the biotic consequences of climate change. At minimum, we can expect non-climatic factors to create substantial time lags between the creation of more favourable climatic conditions and range expansion. PMID:25253462

  19. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT BIOLOGY AND CONSEQUENCES FOR PUBLIC HEALTH.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    As a consequence of climate change and rising carbon dioxide levels, a number of aspects of weed biology are likely to be affected. These changes not only impact food security, but may include probable links to public health. Some examples of such direct links between CO2/temperature, plant biolog...

  20. Plant response to climate change varies with topography, interactions with neighbors, and ecotype.

    PubMed

    Liancourt, Pierre; Spence, Laura A; Song, Daniel S; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Sharkhuu, Anarmaa; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Helliker, Brent R; Petraitis, Peter S; Casper, Brenda B

    2013-02-01

    Predicting the future of any given species represents an unprecedented challenge in light of the many environmental and biological factors that affect organismal performance and that also interact with drivers of global change. In a three-year experiment set in the Mongolian steppe, we examined the response of the common grass Festuca lenensis to manipulated temperature and water while controlling for topographic variation, plant-plant interactions, and ecotypic differentiation. Plant survival and growth responses to a warmer, drier climate varied within the landscape. Response to simulated increased precipitation occurred only in the absence of neighbors, demonstrating that plant-plant interactions can supersede the effects of climate change. F. lenensis also showed evidence of local adaptation in populations that were only 300 m apart. Individuals from the steep and dry upper slope showed a higher stress/drought tolerance, whereas those from the more productive lower slope showed a higher biomass production and a greater ability to cope with competition. Moreover, the response of this species to increased precipitation was ecotype specific, with water addition benefiting only the least stress-tolerant ecotype from the lower slope origin. This multifaceted approach illustrates the importance of placing climate change experiments within a realistic ecological and evolutionary framework. Existing sources of variation impacting plant performance may buffer or obscure climate change effects. PMID:23691663

  1. Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cowie, Jonathan

    2001-05-01

    In recent years climate change has become recognised as the foremost environmental problem of the twenty-first century. Not only will climate change potentially affect the multibillion dollar energy strategies of countries worldwide, but it also could seriously affect many species, including our own. A fascinating introduction to the subject, this textbook provides a broad review of past, present and likely future climate change from the viewpoints of biology, ecology and human ecology. It will be of interest to a wide range of people, from students in the life sciences who need a brief overview of the basics of climate science, to atmospheric science, geography, and environmental science students who need to understand the biological and human ecological implications of climate change. It will also be a valuable reference for those involved in environmental monitoring, conservation, policy-making and policy lobbying. The first book to cover not only the human impacts on climate, but how climate change will affect humans and the species that we rely on Written in an accessible style, with specialist terms used only when necessary and thoroughly explained The author has years of experience conveying the views of biological science learned societies to policy-makers

  2. On the brink of change: plant responses to climate on the Colorado Plateau

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Schelz, Charles D.; Moran, Mary; Carolin, Tara W.

    2011-01-01

    The intensification of aridity due to anthropogenic climate change in the southwestern U.S. is likely to have a large impact on the growth and survival of plant species that may already be vulnerable to water stress. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is essential to determine the long-term dynamics of plant species associated with past climate conditions. Here we show how the plant species and functional types across a wide range of environmental conditions in Colorado Plateau national parks have changed with climate variability over the last twenty years. During this time, regional mean annual temperature increased by 0.18°C per year from 1989–1995, 0.06°C per year from 1995–2003, declined by 0.14°C from 2003–2008, and there was high interannual variability in precipitation. Non-metric multidimensional scaling of plant species at long-term monitoring sites indicated five distinct plant communities. In many of the communities, canopy cover of perennial plants was sensitive to mean annual temperature occurring in the previous year, whereas canopy cover of annual plants responded to cool season precipitation. In the perennial grasslands, there was an overall decline of C3 perennial grasses, no change of C4 perennial grasses, and an increase of shrubs with increasing temperature. In the shrublands, shrubs generally showed no change or slightly increased with increasing temperature. However, certain shrub species declined where soil and physical characteristics of a site limited water availability. In the higher elevation woodlands, Juniperus osteosperma and shrub canopy cover increased with increasing temperature, while Pinus edulis at the highest elevation sites was unresponsive to interannual temperature variability. These results from well-protected national parks highlight the importance of temperature to plant responses in a water-limited region and suggest that projected increases in aridity are likely to promote grass loss and shrub expansion on the Colorado Plateau.

  3. Climate change hampers endangered species through intensified moisture-related plant stresses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    (Ruud) Bartholomeus, R. P.; (Flip) Witte, J. P. M.; (Peter) van Bodegom, P. M.; (Jos) van Dam, J. C.; (Rien) Aerts, R.

    2010-05-01

    With recent climate change, extremes in meteorological conditions are forecast and observed to increase globally, and to affect vegetation composition. More prolonged dry periods will alternate with more intensive rainfall events, both within and between years, which will change soil moisture dynamics. In temperate climates, soil moisture, in concert with nutrient availability and soil acidity, is the most important environmental filter in determining local plant species composition, as it determines the availability of both oxygen and water to plant roots. These resources are indispensable for meeting the physiological demands of plants. The consequences of climate change for our natural environment are among the most pressing issues of our time. The international research community is beginning to realise that climate extremes may be more powerful drivers of vegetation change and species extinctions than slow-and-steady climatic changes, but the causal mechanisms of such changes are presently unknown. The roles of amplitudes in water availability as drivers of vegetation change have been particularly elusive owing to the lack of integration of the key variables involved. Here we show that the combined effect of increased rainfall variability, temperature and atmospheric CO2-concentration will lead to an increased variability in both wet and dry extremes in stresses faced by plants (oxygen and water stress, respectively). We simulated these plant stresses with a novel, process-based approach, incorporating in detail the interacting processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. In order to quantify oxygen and water stress with causal measures, we focused on interacting meteorological, soil physical, microbial, and plant physiological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. The first physiological process inhibited at high soil moisture contents is plant root respiration, i.e. oxygen consumption in the roots, which responds to increased temperatures. High soil moisture contents hamper oxygen transport from the atmosphere, through the soil - where part of the oxygen additionally disappears by soil microbial oxygen consumption - and to the root cells. Reduced respiration negatively affects the energy supply to plant metabolism. Plant transpiration, which responds to increased temperatures and atmospheric CO2-concentrations, is the first physiological process that will be inhibited by low soil moisture contents, negatively affecting both photosynthesis and cooling. As both the supply and demand of oxygen and water depend strongly on the prevailing meteorological conditions, both oxygen and water stress were calculated dynamically in time to capture climate change effects. We demonstrate that increased rainfall variability in interaction with predicted changes in temperature and CO2, affects soil moisture conditions and plant oxygen and water demands such, that both oxygen stress and water stress will intensify due to climate change. Moreover, these stresses will increasingly coincide, causing variable stress conditions. These variable stress conditions were found to decrease future habitat suitability, especially for plant species that are presently endangered. The future existence of such species is thus at risk by climate change, which has direct implications for policies to maintain endangered species, as applied by international nature management organisations (e.g. IUCN). Our integrated mechanistic analysis of two stresses combined, which has never been done so far, reveals large impacts of climate change on species extinctions and thereby on biodiversity.

  4. Forecasting spatial plant dynamics under future climate change in a semiarid savanna ecosystem with complex topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, X.; Fatichi, S.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2011-12-01

    The space and time dynamics of savanna ecosystems in semiarid regions is tightly related to fluctuations and changes in the climate, and the competition strategies of individual plants for resources. In most parts of the southwest U.S., various General Circulation Models (GCMs) predict general warming trends with reduced annual precipitation amounts, and increased frequency of extreme droughts and wet periods in the 21st century. Despite the potential risks posed by climate change on vegetation patterns and hydrology, our ability to predict such changes at the catchment and regional scales is limited. In this study, we used a recently developed spatially explicit Cellular Automata Tree-Grass-Shrub Simulator (CATGraSS) to investigate the impacts of climate change on plant dynamics in a semiarid catchment (>3km2) located in the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR) in central New Mexico, USA. In the catchment north-facing slopes are characterized by a juniper-grass savanna, and south-facing slopes by creosote bush and grass species. Initialized by LIDAR-derived tree locations and simulated grass and shrub patterns obtained from model calibration, CATGraSS is forced by a weather generator, AWE-GEN, used to downscale an ensemble of eight different GCM outputs at the study basin, producing multiple stochastic realizations of a transient climate scenario for the next hundred years. The ensemble simulations are used to examine the uncertainty in vegetation response and develop probabilistic plant distribution maps in relation to landscape morphology. This study highlights the importance of understanding local scale plant-to-plant interactions and the role of climate variability in determining climate change impacts on vegetation dynamics at varying spatial scales.

  5. Connecting differential responses of native and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration.

    PubMed

    Flanagan, Neal E; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is predicted to impact river systems in the southeastern United States through alterations of temperature, patterns of precipitation and hydrology. Future climate scenarios for the southeastern United States predict (1) surface water temperatures will warm in concert with air temperature, (2) storm flows will increase and base flows will decrease, and (3) the annual pattern of synchronization between hydroperiod and water temperature will be altered. These alterations are expected to disturb floodplain plant communities, making them more vulnerable to establishment of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate whether native and invasive riparian plant assemblages respond differently to alterations of climate and land use. To study the response of riparian wetlands to watershed and climate alterations, we utilized an existing natural experiment imbedded in gradients of temperature and hydrology-found among dammed and undammed rivers. We evaluated a suite of environmental variables related to water temperature, hydrology, watershed disturbance, and edaphic conditions to identify the strongest predictors of native and invasive species abundances. We found that native species abundance is strongly influenced by climate-driven variables such as temperature and hydrology, while invasive species abundance is more strongly influenced by site-specific factors such as land use and soil nutrient availability. The patterns of synchronization between plant phenology, annual hydrographs, and annual water temperature cycles may be key factors sustaining the viability of native riparian plant communities. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the interactions between climate, land use, and nutrient management in maintaining the species diversity of riparian plant communities. Future climate change is likely to result in diminished competitiveness of native plant species, while the competitiveness of invasive species will increase due to anthropogenic watershed disturbance and accelerated nutrient and sediment export. PMID:26214920

  6. Crop planting date optimization: An approach for climate change adaptation in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waongo, Moussa; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is the main source of income for population and the main driver of economy in Africa, particularly in West Africa. West African agriculture is dominated by rainfed agriculture. This agricultural system is characterized by smallholder and subsistence farming, and a limited use of crop production inputs such as machines, fertilizers and pesticides. Therefore, crop yield is strongly influenced by climate fluctuation and is more vulnerable to climate change and climate variability. To reduce climate risk on crop production, a development of tailored agricultural management strategies is required. The usage of agricultural management strategies such as tailored crop planting date might contribute both to reduce crop failure and to increased crop production. In addition, unlike aforementioned crop production inputs, the usage of tailored planting dates is costless for farmers. Thus, efforts to improve crop production by optimizing crop planting date can contribute to alleviate food insecurity in West Africa, in the context of climate change. In this study, the process-based crop model GLAM (General Large Area Model for annual crop) in combination with a fuzzy logic approach for planting date have been coupled with a genetic algorithm to derive Optimized Planting Dates (OPDs) for maize cropping in Burkina Faso, West Africa. For a specific location, the derived OPDs correspond to a time window for crop planting. To analyze the performance of the OPDs approach, the derived OPDs has been compared to two well-known planting date methods in West Africa. The results showed a mean OPD ranging from May 1st (South-West) to July 11th (North) across the country. In comparison with well-known methods, the OPD approach yielded earliest planting dates across Burkina Faso. The deviation of OPDs from planting dates derived from the well known methods ranged from 10 days to 20 days for the northern and central region, and less than 10 days for the southern region. With respect to the potential yields, the OPD approach indicated that an average increase in maize potential yield of around 20% could be obtained in water limited regions in Burkina Faso. Further investigations are carried out to evaluate both climate change and OPDs impact on crop productivity. Climate change scenario RCP45 and RCP85 data from eight regional climate models are used to perform crop yields simulation using GLAM in combination with OPDs.

  7. Warming experiments under-predict plant phenological responses to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.; Allen, J.; Crimmins, T. M.; Travers, S.; Pau, S.; Cleland, E. E.

    2011-12-01

    Experimental warming studies in natural communities have become an increasingly common method to estimate plant responses to global climate change. Many of these efforts focus on plant species' phenology-a sensitive indicator of species responses to climate-and show advances in spring timing with increasing temperatures. To be useful, however, results from warming experiments should match responses to climate change observed in unmanipulated plant communities, including the responses due to anthropogenic warming that has already occurred. Here we present a comprehensive synthesis of phenological responses to climate change for both experiments and long-term monitoring of natural plant communities. By comparing 14 long-term monitoring datasets with 36 experimental warming studies spanning four continents and 1560 species, we estimate that warming experiments underpredict, by 8.2 and 4.6X (for flowering and leafing, respectively), plant responses to warming when compared to long-term observations. The warming experiments also failed to reproduce the greater temperature sensitivity observed in populations of wild species that flower early in the spring. Further, when considering species for which we had data from both study-types, experiments failed to predict both the magnitude and direction of phenological responses. Among these species, warming experiments predicted a delay of flowering, not the well-documented advance that has tracked recent warming in the observational records. This discrepancy appears unrelated to study length and degree of warming, Instead a number of known artifacts associated with warming experiments could lead to underestimated plant sensitivities. We recommend ways in which the design, documentation and analysis of future experimental and observational studies can be improved to estimate and to predict more accurately plant phenological responses to climate change.

  8. Climate change, plant traits, and invasion in natural and agricultural ecosystems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Invasive species and climate change, each of which is likely to influence agricultural productivity and biological diversity, are also likely to interact. This chapter explores characteristics of both invasive plants and invaded ecosystems to search for generalizations that may allow us to predict w...

  9. The climate change caused by the land plant invasion in the Devonian

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Hir, Guillaume; Donnadieu, Yannick; Goddéris, Yves; Meyer-Berthaud, Brigitte; Ramstein, Gilles; Blakey, Ronald C.

    2011-10-01

    Land plants invaded continents during the Mid-Paleozoic. Their spreading and diversification have been compared to the Cambrian explosion in terms of intensity and impact on the diversification of life on Earth. Whereas prior studies were focused on the evolution of the root system and its weathering contribution, here we used a coupled climate/carbon/vegetation model to investigate the biophysical impacts of plant colonization on the surface climate through changes in continental albedo, roughness, thermal properties, and potential evaporation. From the Early to the Late Devonian, our model simulates a significant atmospheric CO 2 drop from 6300 to 2100 ppmv that is due to an increase in the consumption of CO 2 though continental silicate weathering. The continental drift and the climatic changes promoted by land plants explain this trend. The simulated CO 2 drawdown is paradoxically associated with unchanged temperatures. We show here that the CO 2 drop is counteracted by a large warming resulting from the surface albedo reduction caused by the appearance of an extended plant-cover. If CO 2 is consensually assumed as the main driver of the Phanerozoic climate, this paper demonstrates that, during land-plant invasion, the modifications of soil properties could have played in the opposite direction of the carbon dioxide fall, hence maintaining warm temperatures during part of the Devonian.

  10. Optimality Based Dynamic Plant Allocation Model: Predicting Acclimation Response to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srinivasan, V.; Drewry, D.; Kumar, P.; Sivapalan, M.

    2009-12-01

    Allocation of assimilated carbon to different plant parts determines the future plant status and is important to predict long term (months to years) vegetated land surface fluxes. Plants have the ability to modify their allometry and exhibit plasticity by varying the relative proportions of the structural biomass contained in each of its tissue. The ability of plants to be plastic provides them with the potential to acclimate to changing environmental conditions in order to enhance their probability of survival. Allometry based allocation models and other empirical allocation models do not account for plant plasticity cause by acclimation due to environmental changes. In the absence of a detailed understanding of the various biophysical processes involved in plant growth and development an optimality approach is adopted here to predict carbon allocation in plants. Existing optimality based models of plant growth are either static or involve considerable empiricism. In this work, we adopt an optimality based approach (coupled with limitations on plant plasticity) to predict the dynamic allocation of assimilated carbon to different plant parts. We explore the applicability of this approach using several optimization variables such as net primary productivity, net transpiration, realized growth rate, total end of growing season reproductive biomass etc. We use this approach to predict the dynamic nature of plant acclimation in its allocation of carbon to different plant parts under current and future climate scenarios. This approach is designed as a growth sub-model in the multi-layer canopy plant model (MLCPM) and is used to obtain land surface fluxes and plant properties over the growing season. The framework of this model is such that it retains the generality and can be applied to different types of ecosystems. We test this approach using the data from free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments using soybean crop at the Soy-FACE research site. Our results show that there are significant changes in the allocation patterns of vegetation when subjected to elevated CO2 indicating that our model is able to account for plant plasticity arising from acclimation. Soybeans when grown under elevated CO2, increased their allocation to structural components such as leaves and decreased their allocation to reproductive biomass. This demonstrates that plant acclimation causes lower than expected crop yields when grown under elevated CO2. Our findings can have serious implications in estimating future crop yields under climate change scenarios where it is widely expected that rising CO2 will fully offset losses due to climate change.

  11. Is average chain length of plant lipids a potential proxy for vegetation, environment and climate changes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, M.; Zhang, W.; Hou, J.

    2015-04-01

    Average chain length (ACL) of leaf wax components preserved in lacustrine sediments and soil profiles has been widely adopted as a proxy indicator for past changes in vegetation, environment and climate during the late Quaternary. The fundamental assumption is that woody plants produce leaf waxes with shorter ACL values than non-woody plants. However, there is a lack of systematic survey of modern plants to justify the assumption. Here, we investigated various types of plants at two lakes, Blood Pond in the northeastern USA and Lake Ranwu on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and found that the ACL values were not significantly different between woody and non-woody plants. We also compiled the ACL values of modern plants in the literatures and performed a meta-analysis to determine whether a significant difference exists between woody and non-woody plants at single sites. The results showed that the ACL values of plants at 19 out of 26 sites did not show a significant difference between the two major types of plants. This suggests that extreme caution should be taken in using ACL as proxy for past changes in vegetation, environment and climate.

  12. Are Plant Species Able to Keep Pace with the Rapidly Changing Climate?

    PubMed Central

    Cunze, Sarah; Heydel, Felix; Tackenberg, Oliver

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species. PMID:23894290

  13. A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Belyazid, Salim; Kurz, Dani; Braun, Sabine; Sverdrup, Harald; Rihm, Beat; Hettelingh, Jean-Paul

    2011-03-01

    A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate. PMID:21145634

  14. Comment on "Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations"

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stephenson, Nathan L.; Das, Adrian J.

    2011-01-01

    Crimmins et al. (Reports, 21 January 2011, p. 324) attributed an apparent downward elevational shift of California plant species to a precipitation-induced decline in climatic water deficit. We show that the authors miscalculated deficit, that the apparent decline in species' elevations is likely a consequence of geographic biases, and that unlike temperature changes, precipitation changes should not be expected to cause coordinated directional shifts in species' elevations.

  15. Effects of Climate Change on Plant Population Growth Rate and Community Composition Change

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots—Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)—that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change. PMID:26039073

  16. Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Belnap, Jayne; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Swann, Don E.; Rutman, Sue

    2012-01-01

    Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

  17. Climate change and invasion by intracontinental range-expanding exotic plants: the role of biotic interactions

    PubMed Central

    Morriën, Elly; Engelkes, Tim; Macel, Mirka; Meisner, Annelein; Van der Putten, Wim H.

    2010-01-01

    Background and Aims In this Botanical Briefing we describe how the interactions between plants and their biotic environment can change during range-expansion within a continent and how this may influence plant invasiveness. Scope We address how mechanisms explaining intercontinental plant invasions by exotics (such as release from enemies) may also apply to climate-warming-induced range-expanding exotics within the same continent. We focus on above-ground and below-ground interactions of plants, enemies and symbionts, on plant defences, and on nutrient cycling. Conclusions Range-expansion by plants may result in above-ground and below-ground enemy release. This enemy release can be due to the higher dispersal capacity of plants than of natural enemies. Moreover, lower-latitudinal plants can have higher defence levels than plants from temperate regions, making them better defended against herbivory. In a world that contains fewer enemies, exotic plants will experience less selection pressure to maintain high levels of defensive secondary metabolites. Range-expanders potentially affect ecosystem processes, such as nutrient cycling. These features are quite comparable with what is known of intercontinental invasive exotic plants. However, intracontinental range-expanding plants will have ongoing gene-flow between the newly established populations and the populations in the native range. This is a major difference from intercontinental invasive exotic plants, which become more severely disconnected from their source populations. PMID:20354072

  18. Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Randin, C.; Engler, R.; Pearman, P.; Vittoz, P.; Guisan, A.

    2007-12-01

    Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In this study, we developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, we assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. We also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, we used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, we showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe B1 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. Our study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale.

  19. USA National Phenology Network: Plant and Animal Life-Cycle Data Related to Climate Change

    DOE Data Explorer

    Phenology refers to recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, such as leafing and flowering, maturation of agricultural plants, emergence of insects, and migration of birds. It is also the study of these recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, especially their timing and relationships with weather and climate. Phenology affects nearly all aspects of the environment, including the abundance and diversity of organisms, their interactions with one another, their functions in food webs, and their seasonable behavior, and global-scale cycles of water, carbon, and other chemical elements. Phenology records can help us understand plant and animal responses to climate change; it is a key indicator. The USA-NPN brings together citizen scientists, government agencies, non-profit groups, educators, and students of all ages to monitor the impacts of climate change on plants and animals in the United States. The network harnesses the power of people and the Internet to collect and share information, providing researchers with far more data than they could collect alone.[Extracts copied from the USA-NPN home page and from http://www.usanpn.org/about].

  20. Climate change alters plant biogeography in Mediterranean prairies along the West Coast, USA.

    PubMed

    Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Bridgham, Scott D; Reynolds, Lorien L; Goklany, Maya E; Wilson, Hannah E; Little, Chelsea J; Ferguson, Aryana; Johnson, Bart R

    2016-02-01

    Projected changes in climate are expected to have widespread effects on plant community composition and diversity in coming decades. However, multisite, multifactor climate manipulation studies that have examined whether observed responses are regionally consistent and whether multiple climate perturbations are interdependent are rare. Using such an experiment, we quantified how warming and increased precipitation intensity affect the relative dominance of plant functional groups and diversity across a broad climate gradient of Mediterranean prairies. We implemented a fully factorial climate manipulation of warming (+2.5-3.0 °C) and increased wet-season precipitation (+20%) at three sites across a 520-km latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. After seeding with a nearly identical mix of native species at all sites, we measured plant community composition (i.e., cover, richness, and diversity), temperature, and soil moisture for 3 years. Warming and the resultant drying of soils altered plant community composition, decreased native diversity, and increased total cover, with warmed northern communities becoming more similar to communities further south. In particular, after two full years of warming, annual cover increased and forb cover decreased at all sites mirroring the natural biogeographic pattern. This suggests that the extant climate gradient of increasing heat and drought severity is responsible for a large part of the observed biogeographic pattern of increasing annual invasion in US West Coast prairies as one moves further south. Additional precipitation during the rainy season did little to relieve drought stress and had minimal effects on plant community composition. Our results suggest that the projected increase in drought severity (i.e., hotter, drier summers) in Pacific Northwest prairies may lead to increased invasion by annuals and a loss of forbs, similar to what has been observed in central and southern California, resulting in novel species assemblages and shifts in functional composition, which in turn may alter ecosystem functions. PMID:26222331

  1. Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dullinger, Stefan; Gattringer, Andreas; Thuiller, Wilfried; Moser, Dietmar; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Guisan, Antoine; Willner, Wolfgang; Plutzar, Christoph; Leitner, Michael; Mang, Thomas; Caccianiga, Marco; Dirnböck, Thomas; Ertl, Siegrun; Fischer, Anton; Lenoir, Jonathan; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Psomas, Achilleas; Schmatz, Dirk R.; Silc, Urban; Vittoz, Pascal; Hülber, Karl

    2012-08-01

    Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts. Here, we use a hybrid model that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most `optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt. Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

  2. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

    PubMed

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-08-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras. PMID:20335215

  3. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness

    PubMed Central

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-01-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8°C scenario, but to decrease significantly (−9.4%) under the ‘business as usual’ A1FI/+4.0°C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras. PMID:20335215

  4. A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

    PubMed Central

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B.; Tielbörger, Katja

    2012-01-01

    Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought. PMID:23045708

  5. Overwintering of herbaceous plants in a changing climate. Still more questions than answers.

    PubMed

    Rapacz, Marcin; Ergon, Ashild; Höglind, Mats; Jørgensen, Marit; Jurczyk, Barbara; Ostrem, Liv; Rognli, Odd Arne; Tronsmo, Anne Marte

    2014-08-01

    The increase in surface temperature of the Earth indicates a lower risk of exposure for temperate grassland and crop to extremely low temperatures. However, the risk of low winter survival rate, especially in higher latitudes may not be smaller, due to complex interactions among different environmental factors. For example, the frequency, degree and length of extreme winter warming events, leading to snowmelt during winter increased, affecting the risks of anoxia, ice encasement and freezing of plants not covered with snow. Future climate projections suggest that cold acclimation will occur later in autumn, under shorter photoperiod and lower light intensity, which may affect the energy partitioning between the elongation growth, accumulation of organic reserves and cold acclimation. Rising CO2 levels may also disturb the cold acclimation process. Predicting problems with winter pathogens is also very complex, because climate change may greatly influence the pathogen population and because the plant resistance to these pathogens is increased by cold acclimation. All these factors, often with contradictory effects on winter survival, make plant overwintering viability under future climates an open question. Close cooperation between climatologists, ecologists, plant physiologists, geneticists and plant breeders is strongly required to predict and prevent possible problems. PMID:25017157

  6. Multiple phenological responses to climate change among 42 plant species in Xi'an, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Junhu; Wang, Huanjiong; Ge, Quansheng

    2013-09-01

    Phenological data of 42 woody plants in a temperate deciduous forest from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) and the corresponding meteorological data from 1963 to 2011 in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China were collected and analyzed. The first leaf date (FLD), leaf coloring date (LCD) and first flower date (FFD) are revealed as strong biological signals of climatic change. The FLD, LCD and FFD of most species are sensitive to average temperature during a certain period before phenophase onset. Regional precipitation also has a significant impact on phenophases of about half of the species investigated. Affected by climate change, the FLD and FFD of these species have advanced by 5.54 days and 10.20 days on average during 2003-2011 compared with the period 1963-1996, respectively. Meanwhile, the LCD has delayed by 10.59 days, and growing season length has extended 16.13 days. Diverse responses of phenology commonly exist among different species and functional groups during the study period. Especially for FFD, the deviations between the above two periods ranged from -20.68 to -2.79 days; biotic pollination species showed a significantly greater advance than abiotic pollination species. These results were conducive to the understanding of possible changes in both the structure of plant communities and interspecific relationships in the context of climate change.

  7. Late neogene climate change and the geochemical record of C4 plants

    SciTech Connect

    Derry, L.A.

    1995-06-01

    The d13C difference between C3 and C4 plant tissues preserved in fossil organic matter, soil carbonates, and fossil teeth is a powerful tool for investigating floral changes in ancient ecosystems. Data from all three sources suggest that the expansion of C4 biomass was diachronous, beginning by at least mid-Miocene time. C4 plant expansion took place during an interval characterized by a global shift toward cooler and drier climates, accompanied by (and perhaps driven by) falling CO2 levels. However our knowledge of CO2 levels over the last 20 Ma is not yet sufficient to test the hypothesis that specific expansion events were related to changes in pCO2. Rapid Late Miocene expansion of C4 biomass in the Himalayan foreland is associated with the onset of a strong regional monsoon. The close coupling between oceanographic and terrestrial indicators of climate change and plant community composition suggests that, in this case, increased seasonality rather than CO2 drop was the proximate trigger for the expansion of C4 biomass. An unresolved problem with sedimentary d13C data is whether it primarily records community composition, relative productivity, or preservation differences between plant materials.

  8. Climate change alters leaf anatomy, but has no effects on volatile emissions from Arctic plants.

    PubMed

    Schollert, Michelle; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Valolahti, Hanna M; Rinnan, Riikka

    2015-10-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are expected to change substantially because of the rapid advancement of climate change in the Arctic. BVOC emission changes can feed back both positively and negatively on climate warming. We investigated the effects of elevated temperature and shading on BVOC emissions from arctic plant species Empetrum hermaphroditum, Cassiope tetragona, Betula nana and Salix arctica. Measurements were performed in situ in long-term field experiments in subarctic and high Arctic using a dynamic enclosure system and collection of BVOCs into adsorbent cartridges analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. In order to assess whether the treatments had resulted in anatomical adaptations, we additionally examined leaf anatomy using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. Against expectations based on the known temperature and light-dependency of BVOC emissions, the emissions were barely affected by the treatments. In contrast, leaf anatomy of the studied plants was significantly altered in response to the treatments, and these responses appear to differ from species found at lower latitudes. We suggest that leaf anatomical acclimation may partially explain the lacking treatment effects on BVOC emissions at plant shoot-level. However, more studies are needed to unravel why BVOC emission responses in arctic plants differ from temperate species. PMID:25737381

  9. Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change.

    PubMed

    Seebens, Hanno; Essl, Franz; Dawson, Wayne; Fuentes, Nicol; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; van Kleunen, Mark; Weber, Ewald; Winter, Marten; Blasius, Bernd

    2015-11-01

    Trade plays a key role in the spread of alien species and has arguably contributed to the recent enormous acceleration of biological invasions, thus homogenizing biotas worldwide. Combining data on 60-year trends of bilateral trade, as well as on biodiversity and climate, we modeled the global spread of plant species among 147 countries. The model results were compared with a recently compiled unique global data set on numbers of naturalized alien vascular plant species representing the most comprehensive collection of naturalized plant distributions currently available. The model identifies major source regions, introduction routes, and hot spots of plant invasions that agree well with observed naturalized plant numbers. In contrast to common knowledge, we show that the 'imperialist dogma,' stating that Europe has been a net exporter of naturalized plants since colonial times, does not hold for the past 60 years, when more naturalized plants were being imported to than exported from Europe. Our results highlight that the current distribution of naturalized plants is best predicted by socioeconomic activities 20 years ago. We took advantage of the observed time lag and used trade developments until recent times to predict naturalized plant trajectories for the next two decades. This shows that particularly strong increases in naturalized plant numbers are expected in the next 20 years for emerging economies in megadiverse regions. The interaction with predicted future climate change will increase invasions in northern temperate countries and reduce them in tropical and (sub)tropical regions, yet not by enough to cancel out the trade-related increase. PMID:26152518

  10. Plant Functional Variability in Response to Late-Quaternary Climate Change Recorded in Ancient Packrat Middens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmgren, C. A.; Potts, D. L.

    2006-12-01

    Responses of plant functional traits to environmental variability are of enduring interest because they constrain organism performance and ecosystem function. However, most inferences regarding plant functional trait response to climatic variability have been limited to the modern period. To better understand plant functional response to long-term climate variability and how adjustments in leaf morphology may contribute to patterns of species establishment, persistence, or extirpation, we measured specific leaf area (SLA) from macrofossils preserved in ancient packrat middens collected along the Arizona/New Mexico border, USA. Our record spanned more than 32,000 years and included six woodland and Chihuahuan Desert species: Berberis cf. haematocarpa, Juniperus cf. coahuilensis, Juniperus osteosperma, Larrea tridentata, Prosopis glandulosa and Parthenium incanum. We predicted that regional climatic warming and drying since the late Pleistocene would result in intraspecific decreases in SLA. As predicted, SLA was positively correlated with midden age for three of the six species (L. tridentata, J. osteosperma, B. cf. haematocarpa). SLA was also negatively correlated with December (L. tridentata, J. cf. coahuilensis) or June (B. cf. haematocarpa, J. osteosperma) insolation. A unique record of vegetation community dynamics, plant macrofossils preserved in packrat middens also represent a rich and largely untapped source of information on long-term trends in species functional response to environmental change.

  11. Incorporating long-term climate change in performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Swift, P.N.; Baker, B.L.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Rudeen, D.K.

    1994-03-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic wastes generated by defense programs. Applicable regulations (40 CFR 191) require the DOE to evaluate disposal-system performance for 10,000 yr. Climatic changes may affect performance by altering groundwater flow. Paleoclimatic data from southeastern New Mexico and the surrounding area indicate that the wettest and coolest Quaternary climate at the site can be represented by that at the last glacial maximum, when mean annual precipitation was approximately twice that of the present. The hottest and driest climates have been similar to that of the present. The regularity of global glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene confirms that the climate of the last glacial maximum is suitable for use as a cooler and wetter bound for variability during the next 10,000 yr. Climate variability is incorporated into groundwater-flow modeling for WIPP PA by causing hydraulic head in a portion of the model-domain boundary to rise to the ground surface with hypothetical increases in precipitation during the next 10,000 yr. Variability in modeled disposal-system performance introduced by allowing had values to vary over this range is insignificant compared to variability resulting from other causes, including incomplete understanding of transport processes. Preliminary performance assessments suggest that climate variability will not affect regulatory compliance.

  12. Incorporating long-term climate change in performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Swift, P.N.; Baker, B.L.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Rudeen, D.K.

    1993-09-18

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic wastes generated by defense programs. Applicable regulations (40 CFR 191) require the DOE to evaluate disposal-system performance for 10,000 yr. Climatic changes may affect performance by altering groundwater flow. Paleoclimatic data from southeastern New Mexico and the surrounding area indicate that the wettest and coolest Quaternary climate at the site can be represented by that at the last glacial maximum, when mean annual precipitation was approximately twice that of the present. The hottest and driest climates have been similar to that of the present. The regularity of global glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene confirms that the climate of the last glacial maximum is suitable for use as a cooler and wetter bound for variability during the next 10,000 yr. Climate variability is incorporated into groundwater-flow modeling for WIPP PA by causing hydraulic head in a portion of the model-domain boundary to rise to the ground surface with hypothetical increases in precipitation during the next 10,000 yr. Variability in modeled disposal-system performance introduced by allowing head values to vary over this range is insignificant compared to variability resulting from other causes, including incomplete understanding of transport processes. Preliminary performance assessments suggest that climate variability will not affect regulatory compliance.

  13. Birds, Plants, and Climate: Impacts of Climatic Change on the Phenology of Spring Bird Migration in the Great Lakes, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macmynowski, D. P.; Root, T. L.

    2004-12-01

    Global climate change is likely to emerge as a significant, if not dominant force, in ecosystem change over the next several decades. While the potential impacts of discordant range shifts have received considerable attention, asynchronies in phenology have received less attention. Migrating birds are of particular concern given their need of multiple habitats, which often involve large spatial scales. Time is of the essence for migrating birds: it is critical for departures with favorable weather conditions, intersecting adequate resources to fuel further flight, and for spring migrants, arrival on the breeding grounds in concert with the flush of food to feed offspring. We assess changes in the spring phenology of migrant birds in the Great Lakes region using observations in Germfask, MI, USA (49° 17'N, 85° 57'W) from 1965-1994 and Fairfield Township, WI,USA (43° 30'N, 89° 30'W) from 1976-1999. We correlate the species temporal changes with abiotic and biotic variables to understand how migrants' behaviour is associated with spring green-up (plant phenology) and multi-scalar climate/weather variables, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, and local and regional temperature. We assess the observed changes and correlations in light of migrant life history factors (wintering grounds, diet, residency) to understand which species, or groups of species, are particularly at risk from climatic-change-induced disruptions to the migratory and breeding schedule. The implications of potential ecosystem asynchronies between climate/weather, migratory schedules, and the arrival of spring are discussed.

  14. Plant population differentiation and climate change: responses of grassland species along an elevational gradient.

    PubMed

    Frei, Esther R; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Matter, Philippe; Heggli, Martin; Pluess, Andrea R

    2014-02-01

    Mountain ecosystems are particularly susceptible to climate change. Characterizing intraspecific variation of alpine plants along elevational gradients is crucial for estimating their vulnerability to predicted changes. Environmental conditions vary with elevation, which might influence plastic responses and affect selection pressures that lead to local adaptation. Thus, local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among low and high elevation plant populations in response to climate, soil and other factors associated with elevational gradients might underlie different responses of these populations to climate warming. Using a transplant experiment along an elevational gradient, we investigated reproductive phenology, growth and reproduction of the nutrient-poor grassland species Ranunculus bulbosus, Trifolium montanum and Briza media. Seeds were collected from low and high elevation source populations across the Swiss Alps and grown in nine common gardens at three different elevations with two different soil depths. Despite genetic differentiation in some traits, the results revealed no indication of local adaptation to the elevation of population origin. Reproductive phenology was advanced at lower elevation in low and high elevation populations of all three species. Growth and reproduction of T. montanum and B. media were hardly affected by garden elevation and soil depth. In R. bulbosus, however, growth decreased and reproductive investment increased at higher elevation. Furthermore, soil depth influenced growth and reproduction of low elevation R. bulbosus populations. We found no evidence for local adaptation to elevation of origin and hardly any differences in the responses of low and high elevation populations. However, the consistent advanced reproductive phenology observed in all three species shows that they have the potential to plastically respond to environmental variation. We conclude that populations might not be forced to migrate to higher elevations as a consequence of climate warming, as plasticity will buffer the detrimental effects of climate change in the three investigated nutrient-poor grassland species. PMID:24115364

  15. A Model of Water Resources & Thermoelectric Plant Productivity Considering Changing Climates & Environmental Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Stewart, R. J.; Wollheim, W. M.; Rosenzweig, B.

    2012-12-01

    In the Northeast US, approximately 80% of the available capacity of thermoelectric plants is dependent on the constant availability of water for cooling. Cooling is a necessary process whereby the waste thermal load of a power plant is released and the working fluid (typically steam) condensed to allow the continuation of the thermodynamic cycle and the extraction of electrical power through the action of turbines. Power plants rely on a minimum flow at a certain temperature, determined by the individual plant engineering design, to be sufficiently low for their cooling. Any change in quantity or temperature of water could reduce thermal efficiencies. As a result of the cooling process, power plants emit thermal pollution into receiving waters, which is harmful to freshwater aquatic ecosystems including its resident life forms and their biodiversity. The Clean Water Act of 1972 (CWA) was established to limit thermal pollution, particularly when rivers reach high temperatures. When river temperatures approach the threshold limit, the power plants that use freshwater for cooling are forced to reduce their thermal load and thus their output to comply with the regulations. Here we describe a model that quantifies, in a regional context, thermal pollution and estimates efficiency losses as a result of fluctuating river temperatures and flow. It does this using available data, standard engineering equations describing the heat cycle of power plants and their water use, and assumptions about the operations of the plant. In this presentation, we demonstrate the model by analyzing contrasting climates with and without the CWA, focusing on the productivity of 366 thermoelectric plants that rely on water for cooling in the Northeast between the years 2000-2010. When the CWA was imposed on all simulated power plants, the model shows that during the average winter and summer, 94% and 71% of required generation was met from the power plants, respectively. This suggests that if all power plants were to comply with the CWA and if temperatures do increase in the future as is expected under greenhouse warming, electric power generation in the Northeast may become limited, particularly in the summer. To avoid a potential energy gap, back-up generators and other electric infrastructure, such as hydropower, may have to come online in order to meet the total electric demand. Furthermore, it is clear that the methodology and steps taken in the model are required to more accurately understand, estimate and evaluate the relationship between energy production, environmental and energy policy and biodiversity under forecasted and historic climate conditions. Our ongoing work uses this model to explore various future scenarios of policy, climate and natural resource management in the Northeastern US for the period 2010-2100.

  16. Response of plants and ecosystems to CO{sub 2} and climate change. Final technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Reynolds, J.F.

    1993-12-31

    In recognition of the important role of vegetation in the bio-geosphere carbon cycle, the Carbon Dioxide Research Program of the US Department of Energy established the research program: Direct Effects of increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation. The ultimate goal is to develop a general ecosystem model to investigate, via hypothesis testing, the potential responses of different terrestrial ecosystems to changes in the global environment over the next century. The approach involves the parallel development of models at several hierarchical levels, from the leaf to the ecosystem. At the plant level, mechanism and the direct effects of CO{sub 2} in the development of a general plant growth model, GEPSI - GEneral Plant SImulator has been stressed. At the ecosystem level, we have stressed the translation Of CO{sub 2} effects and other aspects of climate change throughout the ecosystem, including feedbacks and constraints to system response, in the development of a mechanistic, general ecosystem model SERECO - Simulation of Ecosystem Response to Elevated CO{sub 2} and Climate Change has been stressed.

  17. The impacts of climate change on the winter hardiness zones of woody plants in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gloning, Philipp; Estrella, Nicole; Menzel, Annette

    2013-08-01

    In this study, we investigated how global climate change will affect winter minimum temperatures and if, as a consequence, potential species ranges will expand or contract. Thus, Heinze and Schreiber's 1984 winter hardiness zones (WHZ) for woody plants in Europe, which are based on mean annual minimum temperatures, were updated and analyzed for recent and future changes using the ENSEMBLES data set E-OBS for recent climate and CLM-model data based on two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) for future simulated climate. For the different data sets, maps of the WHZ were created and compared. This allowed the assessment of projected changes in the development of the WHZ until the end of the twenty-first century. Our results suggested that, depending on the emission scenario used, the main shifts in the WHZ will occur for zones 8 and 9 (increase), located in Mediterranean regions, and for zone 5 (decrease), a boreal zone. Moreover, up to 85 % of the area analyzed will experience a warmer winter climate during the twenty-first century, and some areas will experience increases in two WHZ, equal to an increase of 5.6-11 °C in the mean annual minimum temperature. The probabilities of absolute minimum winter temperatures for four 30-year time periods from 1971 to 2100 were calculated in order to reveal changes associated with a general increase in temperature as well as shifts in the distribution itself. It was predicted that colder temperatures than indicated by the WHZ will occur less frequently in the future, but, depending on the region, reoccur every 5-50 years. These findings are discussed in the context of woody plant species assigned to each of the WHZ by Roloff and Bärtels (1996), with respect to a possible expansion of their range limits and the altered risk of recurring cold spells.

  18. Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: Climate change consequences for soil water resources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, Willliam K.

    2016-01-01

    In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: 1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems and 2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, while changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen.

  19. Plant response to climate change along the forest-tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia.

    PubMed

    Berner, Logan T; Beck, Pieter S A; Bunn, Andrew G; Goetz, Scott J

    2013-11-01

    Russia's boreal (taiga) biome will likely contract sharply and shift northward in response to 21st century climatic change, yet few studies have examined plant response to climatic variability along the northern margin. We quantified climate dynamics, trends in plant growth, and growth-climate relationships across the tundra shrublands and Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) woodlands of the Kolyma river basin (657 000 km(2) ) in northeastern Siberia using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), tree ring-width measurements, and climate data. Mean summer temperatures (Ts ) increased 1.0 °C from 1938 to 2009, though there was no trend (P > 0.05) in growing year precipitation or climate moisture index (CMIgy ). Mean summer NDVI (NDVIs ) increased significantly from 1982 to 2010 across 20% of the watershed, primarily in cold, shrub-dominated areas. NDVIs positively correlated (P < 0.05) with Ts across 56% of the watershed (r = 0.52 ± 0.09, mean ± SD), principally in cold areas, and with CMIgy across 9% of the watershed (r = 0.45 ± 0.06), largely in warm areas. Larch ring-width measurements from nine sites revealed that year-to-year (i.e., high-frequency) variation in growth positively correlated (P < 0.05) with June temperature (r = 0.40) and prior summer CMI (r = 0.40) from 1938 to 2007. An unexplained multi-decadal (i.e., low-frequency) decline in annual basal area increment (BAI) occurred following the mid-20th century, but over the NDVI record there was no trend in mean BAI (P > 0.05), which significantly correlated with NDVIs (r = 0.44, P < 0.05, 1982-2007). Both satellite and tree-ring analyses indicated that plant growth was constrained by both low temperatures and limited moisture availability and, furthermore, that warming enhanced growth. Impacts of future climatic change on forests near treeline in Arctic Russia will likely be influenced by shifts in both temperature and moisture, which implies that projections of future forest distribution and productivity in this area should take into account the interactions of energy and moisture limitations. PMID:23813896

  20. Dramatic response to climate change in the Southwest: Robert Whittaker's 1963 Arizona Mountain plant transect revisited.

    PubMed

    Brusca, Richard C; Wiens, John F; Meyer, Wallace M; Eble, Jeff; Franklin, Kim; Overpeck, Jonathan T; Moore, Wendy

    2013-09-01

    Models analyzing how Southwestern plant communities will respond to climate change predict that increases in temperature will lead to upward elevational shifts of montane species. We tested this hypothesis by reexamining Robert Whittaker's 1963 plant transect in the Santa Catalina Mountains of southern Arizona, finding that this process is already well underway. Our survey, five decades after Whittaker's, reveals large changes in the elevational ranges of common montane plants, while mean annual rainfall has decreased over the past 20 years, and mean annual temperatures increased 0.25°C/decade from 1949 to 2011 in the Tucson Basin. Although elevational changes in species are individualistic, significant overall upward movement of the lower elevation boundaries, and elevational range contractions, have occurred. This is the first documentation of significant upward shifts of lower elevation range boundaries in Southwestern montane plant species over decadal time, confirming that previous hypotheses are correct in their prediction that mountain communities in the Southwest will be strongly impacted by warming, and that the Southwest is already experiencing a rapid vegetation change. PMID:24223270

  1. Dramatic response to climate change in the Southwest: Robert Whittaker's 1963 Arizona Mountain plant transect revisited

    PubMed Central

    Brusca, Richard C; Wiens, John F; Meyer, Wallace M; Eble, Jeff; Franklin, Kim; Overpeck, Jonathan T; Moore, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    Models analyzing how Southwestern plant communities will respond to climate change predict that increases in temperature will lead to upward elevational shifts of montane species. We tested this hypothesis by reexamining Robert Whittaker's 1963 plant transect in the Santa Catalina Mountains of southern Arizona, finding that this process is already well underway. Our survey, five decades after Whittaker's, reveals large changes in the elevational ranges of common montane plants, while mean annual rainfall has decreased over the past 20 years, and mean annual temperatures increased 0.25°C/decade from 1949 to 2011 in the Tucson Basin. Although elevational changes in species are individualistic, significant overall upward movement of the lower elevation boundaries, and elevational range contractions, have occurred. This is the first documentation of significant upward shifts of lower elevation range boundaries in Southwestern montane plant species over decadal time, confirming that previous hypotheses are correct in their prediction that mountain communities in the Southwest will be strongly impacted by warming, and that the Southwest is already experiencing a rapid vegetation change. PMID:24223270

  2. Impacts of climate change drivers on C4 grassland productivity: Scaling driver effects through the plant community

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change drivers affect the plant community productivity via three pathways: 1) direct effects of drivers on plants, 2) the response of species abundances to drivers (community response), and 3) the feedback effect of community change on productivity (community effect). The contribution of e...

  3. Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

    PubMed

    Lemoine, Nathan P

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration. PMID:25705876

  4. Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

    PubMed Central

    Lemoine, Nathan P.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration. PMID:25705876

  5. Climate Model Tests Of Anthropogenic Influence On Greenhouse-Induced Climate Change: The Role Of Plant Physiology Feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philippon, G.; Vavrus, S.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.

    2008-12-01

    We use the NCAR's Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) forced by greenhouse gas concentrations that are lower than nominal pre-industrial (~1750 AD) levels and instead based on natural levels that were reached in similar stages of previous interglaciations. The aim is to test the plant physiology feedback from the vegetation model with the coupled atmosphere-slab ocean configuration at a moderate resolution (T42). According to previous modeling work allowing interactive vegetation but no physiology feedback, the response of this model to lowered greenhouse gases is a global cooling of about 3 K and an expansion of arctic snow area, resulting from an arctic desert expansion and a decrease mainly of boreal trees and also tundra. We focus on the comparison of two experiments with both the vegetation feedbacks (interactive vegetation) but one with no plant physiology feedback (NOANTHRO_VEG) and the other with plant physiology feedback (PHYSIO). The physiology feedback produces an even cooler northern hemisphere high latitude climate, about -0.5 K on average. But the land winter temperature difference can reach 2 K near the northern pole. Furthermore, the physiology feedback amplifies the decrease of boreal tree cover in high latitudes and the tundra area in many places except on the southern limit (South-west and south-east Russia and south-east Canada), where the tundra is increasing. Viewed from the perspective of explaining the unusual late-Holocene increases of CO2 that occurred prior to the Industrial Revolution, these simulated changes in the vegetation support the hypothesis that early agriculture played a role in initiating anomalous warming that thwarted incipient glaciation beginning several thousand years ago. In this work, we will show the impact of the vegetation feedback and the physiology effect on the climate.

  6. Modeling climate change impacts on maize growth with the focus on plant internal water transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinlein, Florian; Biernath, Christian; Klein, Christian; Thieme, Christoph; Priesack, Eckart

    2015-04-01

    Based on climate change experiments in chambers and on field measurements, the scientific community expects regional and global changes of crop biomass production and yields. In central Europe one major aspect of climate change is the shift of precipitation towards winter months and the increase of extreme events, e.g. heat stress and heavy precipitation, during the main growing season in summer. To understand water uptake, water use, and transpiration rates by plants numerous crop models were developed. We tested the ability of two existing canopy models (CERES-Maize and SPASS) embedded in the model environment Expert-N5.0 to simulate the water balance, water use efficiency and crop growth. Additionally, sap flow was measured using heat-ratio measurement devices at the stem base of individual plants. The models were tested against data on soil water contents, as well as on evaporation and transpiration rates of Maize plants, which were grown on lysimeters at Helmholtz Zentrum München and in the field at the research station Scheyern, Germany, in summer 2013 and 2014. We present the simulation results and discuss observed shortcomings of the models. CERES-Maize and SPASS could simulate the measured dynamics of xylem sap flow. However, these models oversimplify plant water transport, and thus, cannot explain the underlying mechanisms. Therefore, to overcome these shortcomings, we additionally propose a new model, which is based on two coupled 1-D Richards equations, describing explicitly the plant and soil water transport. This model, which has previously successfully been applied to simulate water flux of 94 individual beech trees of an old-grown forest, will lead to a more mechanistic representation of the soil-plant-water-flow-continuum. This xylem water flux model was now implemented into the crop model SPASS and adjusted to simulate water flux of single maize plants. The modified version is presented and explained. Basic model input requirements are the plant above- and below-ground architectures. Shoot architectures were derived from terrestrial laser scanning. Root architectures of Maize plants were generated using a simple L-system. Preliminary results will be presented together with simulation results by CERES-Maize and SPASS.

  7. Optimality Versus Resilience In Patterns Of Carbon Allocation Within Plants Under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srinivasan, V.; Kumar, P.; Sivapalan, M.

    2010-12-01

    Predicting the allocation of assimilated carbon among different parts within a plant under current and future climates is a challenging task that is of significant interest. Several empirical and mechanistic models have been developed over the years to solve for the carbon allocation within a plant and these have demonstrated limited success. This challenge is further exacerbated when we need to consider the issue of plant acclimation due to climate change. Optimality based carbon allocation models have the ability to provide a general framework and have been proposed to be a strong alternative to empirical and mechanistic models. While several optimality functions have been proposed, more recently the idea of optimizing end of life cycle reproductive biomass has been demonstrated to have significant success (Iwasa 2000). This optimality function unlike others is more fundamental as it is directly based on the concept of evolutionary fitness of each individual. We apply an optimality based carbon allocation model to the soybean ecosystem and other ecosystems and analyze the predictions. Our analysis demonstrates that plants have the capability to achieve a given end state using different allocation strategies during a growing season. More importantly, the soybean ecosystem exhibits significant suboptimal behavior, where the end of life cycle reproductive biomass realized through field measurements, is lower than the model predicted optimum. From these one can infer that in reality, plants allocate a relatively larger fraction of its carbon to leaf and root biomass and a relatively smaller fraction to reproductive biomass when compared to the model predicted optimal allocation pathway. This trend is also obtained while simulating acclimation behavior under elevated CO2 conditions simulating future climate scenarios. We hypothesize that plants in nature exhibit a significant degree of resilience that prevents them from following an optimal pathway resulting in a natural suboptimal behavior. Resilience in this context is defined as the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still retain its basic structure and function (Walker and Salt 2006). For the example of plant ecosystems, disturbance can be a drought, leaf damage (hail or herbivory) etc. By including the competitive interplay between optimality and resilience we propose a modified multi-objective framework for analyzing carbon allocation patterns within plants. This improved multi-objective framework will provide more realistic estimates of plant carbon allocation patterns compared to the earlier single-objective optimality framework. We use data from fluxnet and SoyFACE to run and validate our models.

  8. Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E.; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E.; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future. PMID:25856241

  9. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    PubMed

    Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future. PMID:25856241

  10. Making better maize plants for sustainable grain production in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Gong, Fangping; Wu, Xiaolin; Zhang, Huiyong; Chen, Yanhui; Wang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Achieving grain supply security with limited arable land is a major challenge in the twenty-first century, owing to the changing climate and increasing global population. Maize plays an increasingly vital role in global grain production. As a C4 plant, maize has a high yield potential. Maize is predicted to become the number one cereal in the world by 2020. However, maize production has plateaued in many countries, and hybrid and production technologies have been fully exploited. Thus, there is an urgent need to shape maize traits and architectures for increased stress tolerance and higher yield in a changing climate. Recent achievements in genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics have provided an unprecedented opportunity to make better maize. In this paper, we discuss the current challenges and potential of maize production, particularly in China. We also highlight the need for enhancing maize tolerance to drought and heat waves, summarize the elite shoot and root traits and phenotypes, and propose an ideotype for sustainable maize production in a changing climate. This will facilitate targeted maize improvement through a conventional breeding program combined with molecular techniques. PMID:26500671

  11. Making better maize plants for sustainable grain production in a changing climate

    PubMed Central

    Gong, Fangping; Wu, Xiaolin; Zhang, Huiyong; Chen, Yanhui; Wang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Achieving grain supply security with limited arable land is a major challenge in the twenty-first century, owing to the changing climate and increasing global population. Maize plays an increasingly vital role in global grain production. As a C4 plant, maize has a high yield potential. Maize is predicted to become the number one cereal in the world by 2020. However, maize production has plateaued in many countries, and hybrid and production technologies have been fully exploited. Thus, there is an urgent need to shape maize traits and architectures for increased stress tolerance and higher yield in a changing climate. Recent achievements in genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics have provided an unprecedented opportunity to make better maize. In this paper, we discuss the current challenges and potential of maize production, particularly in China. We also highlight the need for enhancing maize tolerance to drought and heat waves, summarize the elite shoot and root traits and phenotypes, and propose an ideotype for sustainable maize production in a changing climate. This will facilitate targeted maize improvement through a conventional breeding program combined with molecular techniques. PMID:26500671

  12. Detecting climate-change responses of plants and soil organic matter using isotopomers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schleucher, Jürgen; Ehlers, Ina; Segura, Javier; Haei, Mahsa; Augusti, Angela; Köhler, Iris; Zuidema, Pieter; Nilsson, Mats; Öquist, Mats

    2015-04-01

    Responses of vegetation and soils to environmental changes will strongly influence future climate, and responses on century time scales are most important for feedbacks on the carbon cycle, climate models, prediction of crop productivity, and for adaptation to climate change. That plants respond to increasing CO2 on century time scales has been proven by changes in stomatal index, but very little is known beyond this. In soil, the complexity of soil organic matter (SOM) has hampered a sufficient understanding of the temperature sensitivity of SOM turnover. Here we present new stable isotope methodology that allows detecting shifts in metabolism on long time scales, and elucidating SOM turnover on the molecular level. Compound-specific isotope analysis measures isotope ratios of defined metabolites, but as average of the entire molecule. Here we demonstrate how much more detailed information can be obtained from analyses of intramolecular distributions of stable isotopes, so-called isotopomer abundances. As key tool, we use nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, which allows detecting isotope abundance with intramolecular resolution and without risk for isotope fractionation during analysis. Enzyme isotope fractionations create non-random isotopomer patterns in biochemical metabolites. At natural isotope abundance, these patterns continuously store metabolic information. We present a strategy how these patterns can be used as to extract signals on plant physiology, climate variables, and their interactions. Applied in retrospective analyses to herbarium samples and tree-ring series, we detect century-time-scale metabolic changes in response to increasing atmospheric CO2, with no evidence for acclimatory reactions by the plants. In trees, the increase in photosynthesis expected from increasing CO2 ("CO2 fertilization) was diminished by increasing temperatures, which resolves the discrepancy between expected increases in photosynthesis and commonly observed lack of biomass increases. Isotopomer patterns are a rich source of metabolic information, which can be retrieved from archives of plant material covering centuries and millennia, the time scales relevant for climate change. Boreal soils contain a huge carbon pool that may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Biological activity persists in soils under frozen conditions, but it is largely unknown what controls it, and whether it differs from unfrozen conditions. In an incubation experiment, we traced the metabolism of 13C-labeled cellulose by soil microorganisms. NMR analysis revealed that the 13C label was converted both to respired CO2 and to phospholipid fatty acids, indicating that the polymeric substrate cellulose entered both catabolic and anabolic pathways. Both applications demonstrate a fundamental advantage of isotopomer analysis, namely that their abundances directly reflect biochemical processes. This allows obtaining metabolic information on millennial time scales, thus bridging between plant-physiology and paleo sciences. It may also be key to characterizing SOM with sufficient resolution to understand current biogeochemical fluxes involving SOM and to identify molecular components and organisms that are key for SOM turnover.

  13. EXAMINING PLANNED U.S. POWER PLANT CAPACITY ADDITIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect

    Dooley, James J.; Dahowski, Robert T.; Gale, J.; Kaya, Y.

    2003-01-01

    This paper seeks to assess the degree to which the 471 planned fossil fired power plants announced to be built within the next decade in the continental U.S. are amenable to significant carbon dioxide emissions mitigation via carbon dioxide capture and disposal in geologic reservoirs. The combined generating capacity of these 471 planned plants is 320 GW. In particular, we seek to assess the looming ''carbon liability'' (i.e., the nearly 1 billion tons of CO2 these plants are likely to emit annually) that these power plants represent for their owners and for the nation as the U.S. begins to address climate change. Significant emission reductions will likely be brought about through the use of advanced technologies such as carbon capture and disposal. We find that less than half of these plants are located in the immediate vicinity of potentially suitable geologic carbon dioxide disposal reservoirs. The authors discuss the implications of this potential carbon liability that these plants may come to represent.

  14. Teaching change to local youth: Plant phenology, climate change and citizen science at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litton, C. M.; Laursen, S. C.; Phifer, C.; Giardina, C. P.

    2012-12-01

    Plant phenology is a powerful indicator of how climate change affects native ecosystems, and also provides an experiential outdoor learning opportunity for promoting youth conservation education and awareness. We developed a youth conservation education curriculum, including both classroom and field components, for local middle and high school students from Hawaii. The curriculum is focused on linking plant phenology and climate change, with emphasis on ecologically and culturally important native trees and birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), on the Island of Hawaii. In this curriculum, students: (i) visit Hakalau Forest NWR to learn about the ecology of native ecosystems, including natural disturbance regimes and the general concept of change in forest ecosystems; (ii) learn about human-induced climate change and its potential impact on native species; and (iii) collect plant phenology measurements and publish these data on the USA National Phenology Network website. This youth conservation education curriculum represents a close collaboration between Hakalau Forest NWR; the Friends of Hakalau Forest NWR; the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources at the University of Hawaii at Manoa; the USDA Forest Service; and Imi Pono no Ka Aina, an environmental education and outreach program for the Three Mountain Alliance Watershed Partnership. In the Winter and Spring of 2011-2012, we developed classroom and field portions of the curriculum. In the Spring and Summer of 2012, we recruited four groups of participants, with a total of ~40 students, who visited the refuge to participate in the curriculum. Preliminary phenology observations based upon ~4 months of measurements show low to medium levels of flowering, fruiting and leaf flush. However, the real science value of this program will come over years to decades of accumulated student activity. From this, we anticipate the emergence of a unique tropical montane forest dataset on plant phenology for Hakalau Forest NWR. This work would not otherwise exist in Hawaii as we are the first and only site in Hawaii participating in the USA National Phenology Network. In turn, the education and outreach value of this program is immediate, as participating students are exposed to: (i) native ecosystems that they would never otherwise have the opportunity to visit; (ii) the concept of plant phenology and its utility for monitoring native ecosystems; and (iii) the concept of change, including anthropogenic climate change. The curriculum we have developed in Hawaii can be easily replicated elsewhere by: (i) selecting local species with high cultural and ecological value; (ii) devising phenology collection methods tailored to these local species, and student backgrounds and educational levels; and (iii) building sustainable partnerships between community conservation groups and government agencies.

  15. Climate change alters reproductive isolation and potential gene flow in an annual plant.

    PubMed

    Franks, Steven J; Weis, Arthur E

    2009-11-01

    Climate change will likely cause evolution due not only to selection but also to changes in reproductive isolation within and among populations. We examined the effects of a natural drought on the timing of flowering in two populations of Brassica rapa and the consequences for predicted reproductive isolation and potential gene flow. Seeds were collected before and after a 5-year drought in southern California from two populations varying in soil moisture. Lines derived from these seeds were raised in the greenhouse under wet and drought conditions. We found that the natural drought caused changes in reproductive timing and that the changes were greater for plants from the wet than from the dry site. This differential shift caused the populations to become more phenological similar, which should lead to less reproductive isolation and increased gene flow. We estimated a high level of assortative mating by flowering time, which potentially contributed to the rapid evolution of phenological traits following the drought. Estimates of assortative mating were higher for the wet site population, and assortative mating was reduced following the drought. This study shows that climate change can potentially alter gene flow and reproductive isolation within and among populations, strongly influencing evolution. PMID:25567893

  16. Effects of climate change on mountain ecosystems -- Upward shifting of alpine plants

    SciTech Connect

    Pauli, H.; Gottfried, M.; Grabherr, G.

    1996-09-01

    Ecosystems at high latitudes and altitudes are particularly sensitive to climate change. As an effect of global warming, upward shifting of plant species in high mountain systems was predicted for the near future. In consequence the habitats of the alpine and nival vegetation could be restricted drastically, which might result in extinctions, particular of summit floras. Evidence of upward movement of vascular plants in high mountains was recently empirically determined in the European Alps. In 1992 and 1993, data on the flora of 30 high summits were collected. A comparison of the recent investigations with historical records from the same peaks indicated a distinct increase of species richness at 70% of the summits. A stagnation or a slight decrease of species richness was recorded at 9 summits, but one of them showed an increase in species abundance. The change of species richness is correlated with the geomorphological situation, whereas no significant difference could be found by comparing siliceous and carbonate summits. Approximate moving rates for common alpine plants were calculated to be between 0 and 4 meters per decade. This evidence of upward shifting of high mountain plants may already be a measurable result of global warming since the 19th century.

  17. Specialization in Plant-Hummingbird Networks Is Associated with Species Richness, Contemporary Precipitation and Quaternary Climate-Change Velocity

    PubMed Central

    Dalsgaard, Bo; Magård, Else; Fjeldså, Jon; Martín González, Ana M.; Rahbek, Carsten; Olesen, Jens M.; Ollerton, Jeff; Alarcón, Ruben; Cardoso Araujo, Andrea; Cotton, Peter A.; Lara, Carlos; Machado, Caio Graco; Sazima, Ivan; Sazima, Marlies; Timmermann, Allan; Watts, Stella; Sandel, Brody; Sutherland, William J.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2011-01-01

    Large-scale geographical patterns of biotic specialization and the underlying drivers are poorly understood, but it is widely believed that climate plays an important role in determining specialization. As climate-driven range dynamics should diminish local adaptations and favor generalization, one hypothesis is that contemporary biotic specialization is determined by the degree of past climatic instability, primarily Quaternary climate-change velocity. Other prominent hypotheses predict that either contemporary climate or species richness affect biotic specialization. To gain insight into geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization and its drivers, we use network analysis to determine the degree of specialization in plant-hummingbird mutualistic networks sampled at 31 localities, spanning a wide range of climate regimes across the Americas. We found greater biotic specialization at lower latitudes, with latitude explaining 20–22% of the spatial variation in plant-hummingbird specialization. Potential drivers of specialization - contemporary climate, Quaternary climate-change velocity, and species richness - had superior explanatory power, together explaining 53–64% of the variation in specialization. Notably, our data provides empirical evidence for the hypothesized roles of species richness, contemporary precipitation and Quaternary climate-change velocity as key predictors of biotic specialization, whereas contemporary temperature and seasonality seem unimportant in determining specialization. These results suggest that both ecological and evolutionary processes at Quaternary time scales can be important in driving large-scale geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization, at least for co-evolved systems such as plant-hummingbird networks. PMID:21998716

  18. Phosphorus Concentrations in Above Ground Plant Biomass under Changing Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selvin, C.; Paytan, A.; Roberts, K.

    2013-12-01

    The Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment explores the effects of climate change on annual grasslands with different combinations of elevated or ambient levels of carbon dioxide, heat, precipitation, and nitrate deposition. The nested split-plot design allows for analysis of each variable, combinations of variables, and secondary effects. In this study, plant nutrient levels in homogenized above ground biomass are analyzed to assess the utility of this parameter as a tool to describe the response of an ecosystem to environmental changes. Total phosphorus concentrations showed considerable variability within treatment (n=8) and therefore no significant differences between treatments (n=16) is found. Carbon and nitrogen concentrations in bulk above ground biomass are being analyzed to determine nitrogen and carbon ratios and further elucidate the environmental response of phosphorus levels in plants to the modified parameters. P concentrations and elemental ratios will also be related to other parameters such as soil humidity, microbial biomass, enzyme activity, and plant diversity to determine the parameters influencing P content in the biomass.

  19. EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATERSHED RUNOFF FLOW - UPPER COOSA RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM FROM PLANT HAMMOND

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, K.

    2011-10-24

    The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in the coming decades depends on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to reduce stream flows from their current values due to potentially less precipitation and higher temperatures, and possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. The upper Coosa River basin, located in northwest Georgia, plays an important role in supplying water for industry and domestic use in northern Georgia, and has been involved in water disputes in recent times. The seven-day ten-year low flow (7Q10 flow) is the lowest average flow for seven consecutive days that has an average recurrence interval of 10 years. The 7Q10 flow is statistically derived from the observed historical flow data, and represents the low flow (drought) condition for a basin. The upper Coosa River basin also supplies cooling water for the 935MW coal-fired Hammond plant, which draws about 65% of the 7Q10 flow of the upper Coosa River to dissipate waste heat. The water is drawn through once and returned to the river directly from the generator (i.e., no cooling tower is used). Record low flows in 2007 led to use of portable cooling towers to meet temperature limits. Disruption of the Plant Hammond operation may trigger closure of area industrial facilities (e.g. paper mill). The population in Georgia is expected to double from 9 million to 18 million residents in the next 25 years, mostly in the metropolitan Atlanta area. Therefore, there will be an even greater demand for potable water and for waste assimilation. Climate change in the form of persistent droughts (causing low flows) and high ambient temperatures create regulatory compliance challenges for Plant Hammond operating with a once-through cooling system. Therefore, the Upper Coosa River basin was selected to study the effect of potential future weather change on the watershed runoff flow.

  20. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change and climate variability has received considerable attention from the scientific community in recent decades and has led to a better understanding of various climate phenomena and driving mechanisms. This increased understanding of climate has prompted engineers and policy makers to as...

  1. Climate change effects on plant biomass alter dominance patterns and community evenness in an experimental old-field ecosystem

    SciTech Connect

    Kardol, Paul; Campany, Courtney E; Souza, Lara; Norby, Richard J; Weltzin, Jake; Classen, Aimee T

    2010-01-01

    Atmospheric and climatic change can alter plant biomass production and plant community composition. However, we know little about how climate change-induced alterations in biomass production affect plant community composition. To better understand how climate change will alter both individual plant species and community biomass we manipulated atmospheric [CO2], air temperature and precipitation in a constructed old-field ecosystem. Specifically, we compared the responses of dominant and subdominant species to our treatments, and explored how changes in plant dominance patterns alter community evenness over two years. Our study resulted in four major findings: 1) All treatments, elevated [CO2], warming and increased precipitation, increased plant biomass and the effects were additive rather than interactive, 2) Plant species differed in their response to the treatments, resulting in shifts in the proportional biomass of individual species, which altered the plant community composition; however, the plant community response was largely driven by the responses of the dominant species, 3) Precipitation explained most of the variation in plant community composition among treatments, and 4) Changes in precipitation caused a shift in the dominant species proportional biomass that resulted in higher community evenness in the dry relative to wet treatments. Interestingly, compositional and evenness responses of the subdominant community to the treatments did not always follow the responses of the whole plant community. Our data suggest that changes in plant dominance patterns and community evenness are an important part of community responses to climate change, and generally, that compositional shifts can have important consequences for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems.

  2. Effects of climate change on water demand and water availability for power plants - examples for the German capital Berlin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voegele, Stefan; Koch, Hagen; Grünewald, Uwe

    2010-05-01

    Effects of climate change on water demand and water availability for power plants - examples for the German capital Berlin Stefan Vögelea, Hagen Kochb&c, Uwe Grünewaldb a Forschungszentrum Jülich, Institute of Energy Research - Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, D-52425 Jülich, Germany b Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Chair Hydrology and Water Resources Management, P.O. Box. 101 344, D-03013 Cottbus, Germany c Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany Numerous power plants in Europe had to be throttled in the summer months of the years 2003 and 2006 due to water shortages and high water temperatures. Therefore, the effects of climate change on water availability and water temperature, and their effects on electric power generation in power plants have received much attention in the last years. The water demand of a power plant for cooling depends on the temperature of the surface waters from which the cooling water is withdrawn. Furthermore, air temperature and air humidity influence the water demand if a cooling tower is used. Beside climatic parameters, the demand for water depends on economic and technological factors as well as on the electricity demand and the socio-political framework. Since the different systems are connected with certain levels of uncertainty, scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change should be used in analyses of climate change on power plants and to identify adaptation measures. In this presentation the effects of global change, comprising technological, socio-economic and climate change, and adaptation options to water shortages for power plants in the German capital Berlin in the short- and long-term are analysed. The interconnection between power plants, i.e. water demand, and water resources management, i.e. water availability, is described in detail. By changing the cooling system of power plants from once-through system to closed circuit cooling systems and/or increasing their efficiency the vulnerability of power plants can be reduced considerably. So the electricity production becomes much more robust against effects of climate change and declining streamflows due to human activities in the basin under study. Notwithstanding of the adaptation options analysed for power plants in Berlin economic costs are expected due to declining streamflows and higher water temperatures.

  3. What plant hydraulics can tell us about responses to climate-change droughts.

    PubMed

    Sperry, John S; Love, David M

    2015-07-01

    Climate change exposes vegetation to unusual drought, causing declines in productivity and increased mortality. Drought responses are hard to anticipate because canopy transpiration and diffusive conductance (G) respond to drying soil and vapor pressure deficit (D) in complex ways. A growing database of hydraulic traits, combined with a parsimonious theory of tree water transport and its regulation, may improve predictions of at-risk vegetation. The theory uses the physics of flow through soil and xylem to quantify how canopy water supply declines with drought and ceases by hydraulic failure. This transpiration 'supply function' is used to predict a water 'loss function' by assuming that stomatal regulation exploits transport capacity while avoiding failure. Supply-loss theory incorporates root distribution, hydraulic redistribution, cavitation vulnerability, and cavitation reversal. The theory efficiently defines stomatal responses to D, drying soil, and hydraulic vulnerability. Driving the theory with climate predicts drought-induced loss of plant hydraulic conductance (k), canopy G, carbon assimilation, and productivity. Data lead to the 'chronic stress hypothesis' wherein > 60% loss of k increases mortality by multiple mechanisms. Supply-loss theory predicts the climatic conditions that push vegetation over this risk threshold. The theory's simplicity and predictive power encourage testing and application in large-scale modeling. PMID:25773898

  4. Effects of climate change on mountain ecosystems -- upward shifting of alpine plants

    SciTech Connect

    Pauli, H.; Gottfried, G.; Grabherr, G.

    1996-12-31

    Ecosystems at high latitudes and altitudes are particularly sensitive to climate change. As an effect of global warming, upward shifting of plant species or entire vegetation belts in high mountain systems like the European Alps are predicted for the near future. Less productive mountain plants might become overgrown by more productive species from lower vegetation belts. The habitats of alpine and nival vegetation would be restricted dramatically, which might result in extinctions, particularly of summit floras. Evidence of upward movement of vascular plants in high mountains was recently empirically determined in the Austrian and Swiss Alps. During the summers of 1992 and 1993, data on the flora of 30 high summits was collected. A comparison of the recent investigations with historical records from the same peaks, which were researched between 1895 and 1953, indicated a distinct increase of species richness at 70% of the summits. This evidence of upward shifting of high mountain plants may already be a measurable result of global warming since the mid-19th century.

  5. Late Ordovician land plant spore 13C fractionation records atmospheric CO2 and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beerling, D. J.; Nelson, D. M.; Pearson, A.; Wellman, C.

    2008-12-01

    Molecular systematics and spore wall ultrastructure studies indicate that late Ordovician diad and triad fossil spores were likely produced by plants most closely related to liverworts. Here, we report the first δ13C estimates of Ordovician fossil land plant spores, which were obtained using a spooling wire micro-combustion device interfaced with an isotope-ratio mass spectrometer (Sessions et al., 2005, Analytical Chemistry, 77, 6519). The spores all originate from Saudi Arabia on the west of Gondwana and date to before (Cardadoc, ca. 460 Ma), during (443Ma) and after (Llandovery, ca. 440Ma) the Hirnantian glaciation. We use these numbers along with marine carbonate δ13C records to estimate atmospheric CO2 by implementing a theoretical model that captures the strong CO2-dependency of 13C fractionation in non-vascular land plants (Fletcher et al., 2008, Nature Geoscience, 1, 43). Although provisional at this stage, reconstructed CO2 changes are consistent with the Kump et al. (2008) (Paleo. Paleo. Paleo. 152, 173) 'weathering hypothesis' whereby pre-Hirnantian cooling is caused by relatively low CO2 (ca. 700ppm) related to enhanced weathering of young basaltic rocks during the early phase of the Taconic uplift, with background values subsequently rising to around double this value by the earliest Silurian. Further analyses will better constrain atmospheric CO2 change during the late Ordovician climatic perturbation and address controversial hypotheses concerning the causes and timing of the Earth system transition into an icehouse state.

  6. Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services

    PubMed Central

    Lamarque, Pnlope; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouchet, Maud; Qutier, Fabien

    2014-01-01

    Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs. PMID:25225382

  7. Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

    PubMed

    Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

    2014-09-01

    Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced frosts with climate change may provide more suitable habitats and enable the spread of these species. PMID:24446429

  8. Impacts of sea level rise and climate change on coastal plant species in the central California coast

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Michelle Y.; Fulda, Matthew T.; Berlin, Jonathan A.; Freed, Rachel E.; Soo-Hoo, Melissa M.; Revell, Dave L.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Kendall, Bruce E.

    2015-01-01

    Local increases in sea level caused by global climate change pose a significant threat to the persistence of many coastal plant species through exacerbating inundation, flooding, and erosion. In addition to sea level rise (SLR), climate changes in the form of air temperature and precipitation regimes will also alter habitats of coastal plant species. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats through species distribution models (SDMs), none have incorporated the threat of exposure to SLR. We developed a model that quantified the effect of both SLR and climate change on habitat for 88 rare coastal plant species in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, California, USA (an area of 23,948 km2). Our SLR model projects that by the year 2100, 60 of the 88 species will be threatened by SLR. We found that the probability of being threatened by SLR strongly correlates with a species’ area, elevation, and distance from the coast, and that 10 species could lose their entire current habitat in the study region. We modeled the habitat suitability of these 10 species under future climate using a species distribution model (SDM). Our SDM projects that 4 of the 10 species will lose all suitable current habitats in the region as a result of climate change. While SLR accounts for up to 9.2 km2 loss in habitat, climate change accounts for habitat suitability changes ranging from a loss of 1,439 km2 for one species to a gain of 9,795 km2 for another species. For three species, SLR is projected to reduce future suitable area by as much as 28% of total area. This suggests that while SLR poses a higher risk, climate changes in precipitation and air temperature represents a lesser known but potentially larger risk and a small cumulative effect from both. PMID:26020011

  9. Impacts of sea level rise and climate change on coastal plant species in the central California coast.

    PubMed

    Garner, Kendra L; Chang, Michelle Y; Fulda, Matthew T; Berlin, Jonathan A; Freed, Rachel E; Soo-Hoo, Melissa M; Revell, Dave L; Ikegami, Makihiko; Flint, Lorraine E; Flint, Alan L; Kendall, Bruce E

    2015-01-01

    Local increases in sea level caused by global climate change pose a significant threat to the persistence of many coastal plant species through exacerbating inundation, flooding, and erosion. In addition to sea level rise (SLR), climate changes in the form of air temperature and precipitation regimes will also alter habitats of coastal plant species. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats through species distribution models (SDMs), none have incorporated the threat of exposure to SLR. We developed a model that quantified the effect of both SLR and climate change on habitat for 88 rare coastal plant species in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, California, USA (an area of 23,948 km(2)). Our SLR model projects that by the year 2100, 60 of the 88 species will be threatened by SLR. We found that the probability of being threatened by SLR strongly correlates with a species' area, elevation, and distance from the coast, and that 10 species could lose their entire current habitat in the study region. We modeled the habitat suitability of these 10 species under future climate using a species distribution model (SDM). Our SDM projects that 4 of the 10 species will lose all suitable current habitats in the region as a result of climate change. While SLR accounts for up to 9.2 km(2) loss in habitat, climate change accounts for habitat suitability changes ranging from a loss of 1,439 km(2) for one species to a gain of 9,795 km(2) for another species. For three species, SLR is projected to reduce future suitable area by as much as 28% of total area. This suggests that while SLR poses a higher risk, climate changes in precipitation and air temperature represents a lesser known but potentially larger risk and a small cumulative effect from both. PMID:26020011

  10. Plant genetics and interspecific competitive interactions determine ectomycorrhizal fungal community responses to climate change.

    PubMed

    Gehring, Catherine; Flores-Rentera, Dulce; Sthultz, Christopher M; Leonard, Tierra M; Flores-Rentera, Lluvia; Whipple, Amy V; Whitham, Thomas G

    2014-03-01

    Although the importance of plant-associated microbes is increasingly recognized, little is known about the biotic and abiotic factors that determine the composition of that microbiome. We examined the influence of plant genetic variation, and two stressors, one biotic and one abiotic, on the ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal community of a dominant tree species, Pinus edulis. During three periods across 16 years that varied in drought severity, we sampled the EM fungal communities of a wild stand of P. edulis in which genetically based resistance and susceptibility to insect herbivory was linked with drought tolerance and the abundance of competing shrubs. We found that the EM fungal communities of insect-susceptible trees remained relatively constant as climate dried, while those of insect-resistant trees shifted significantly, providing evidence of a genotype by environment interaction. Shrub removal altered the EM fungal communities of insect-resistant trees, but not insect-susceptible trees, also a genotype by environment interaction. The change in the EM fungal community of insect-resistant trees following shrub removal was associated with greater shoot growth, evidence of competitive release. However, shrub removal had a 7-fold greater positive effect on the shoot growth of insect-susceptible trees than insect-resistant trees when shrub density was taken into account. Insect-susceptible trees had higher growth than insect-resistant trees, consistent with the hypothesis that the EM fungi associated with susceptible trees were superior mutualists. These complex, genetic-based interactions among species (tree-shrub-herbivore-fungus) argue that the ultimate impacts of climate change are both ecological and evolutionary. PMID:24118611

  11. Diverging Plant and Ecosystem Strategies in Response to Climate Change in the High Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maseyk, K. S.; Welker, J. M.; Czimczik, C. I.; Lupascu, M.; Lett, C.; Seibt, U. H.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing summer precipitation means Arctic growing seasons are becoming wetter as well as warmer, but the effect of these coupled changes on tundra ecosystem functioning remains largely unknown. We have determined how warmer and wetter summers affect coupled carbon-water cycling in a High Arctic polar semi-desert ecosystem in NW Greenland. Measurements of ecosystem CO2 and water fluxes throughout the growing season and leaf ecophysiological traits (gas exchange, morphology, leaf chemistry) were made at a long-term climate change experiment. After 9 years of exposure to warmer (+ 4°C) and / or wetter (+ 50% precipitation) treatments, we found diverging plant strategies between the responses to warming with or without an increase in summer precipitation. Warming alone resulted in an increase in leaf nitrogen, mesophyll conductance and leaf-mass per area and higher rates of leaf-level photosynthesis, but with warming and wetting combined leaf traits remain largely unchanged. However, total leaf area increased with warming plus wetting but was unchanged with warming alone. The combined effect of these leaf trait and canopy adjustments is a decrease in ecosystem water-use efficiency (the ratio of net productivity to evapotranspiration) with warming only, but a substantial increase with combined warming and wetting. We conclude that increasing summer precipitation will alter tundra ecohydrological responses to warming; that leaf-level changes in ecophysiological traits have an upward cascading consequence for ecosystem and land surface-climate interactions; and the current relative resistance of High Arctic ecosystems to warming may mask biochemical and carbon cycling changes already underway.

  12. Experimental Investigation of climate change effects on plant available water on rocky desert slopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhn, Nikolaus; Hikel, H.; Schwanghart, W.; Yair, Aaron

    2010-05-01

    Deserts and semi-deserts cover more than one-third of the global land surface, affecting about 49 million km2 with aridity. In many arid regions, slopes are characterized by sparse and patchy soil and vegetation cover, forming so called 'fertility islands'. The mosaic of soil and vegetation is dynamically interdependent, controlled by adaption of the ecosystem to limited and spatially as well as temporarily variable precipitation. Commonly, the role of the pattern of rocks and soil is considered to act as a natural water harvesting system. In an ideal system, the rocky area supplying water matches the soil's infiltration capacity for the given rainfall magnitude. This approach limits the assessment of plant water supply to the amount and intensity of rainfall events, i.e. the supply of water. In reality, the demand of water by the plants also requires consideration. Therefore, the volume of soil storing water is equally important to the ration of soil to rock. Soil volume determines the absolute amount of water stored in the soil and is thus indicative of the time period during which plants do not experience drought related stress between rainfall events. With climate change likely affecting the temporal pattern of rainfall events, a detailed understanding of soil-water interaction, including the storage capacity of patchy soils on rocky slopes, is required. The aim of the study is to examine the relationship between climate change and plant available water on patchy soils in the Negev desert. Thirteen micro-catchments near Sede Boqer were examined. For each micro-catchment, soil volume and distribution was estimated by laser scanning before and after soil excavation. Porosity was estimated by weighing the excavated soil. Before excavation, sprinkling experiments were conducted. Rainfall of 18mm/h was applied to an area of 1m2 each. The experiments lasted 25 to 40 minutes, until equilibrium runoff rates were achieved. Based on these data, rainfall required for soil saturation and soil water storage was calculated. The results of the sprinkling indicate that the minimum rainfall amount to saturate a median soil patch with water is only 2.5 mm. Such low rainfall event magnitudes have a high frequency in the Negev, indicating that the soil storage space is filled frequently. Consequently, the storage capacity of the soil is of great relevance for plant water supply during periods without rain. Rainfall records for the period of 1976-2008 show a significant variability of the average duration of periods without rainfall during the wet winter season. Depending on the size of a soil patch, serious drought stress can develop, indicating that only an understanding of soil and rainfall interaction enables a full understanding of the impacts of climate change on hillslope ecohydrology. The study also illustrates how rainfall simulation experiments and the analysis of meteorological records can be combined as a tool for the assessment of environmental change.

  13. Alpine Plant Monitoring for Global Climate Change; Analysis of the Four California GLORIA Target Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dennis, A.; Westfall, R. D.; Millar, C. I.

    2007-12-01

    The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) is an international research project with the goal to assess climate-change impacts on vegetation in alpine environments worldwide. Standardized protocols direct selection of each node in the network, called a Target Region (TR), which consists of a set of four geographically proximal mountain summits at elevations extending from treeline to the nival zone. For each summit, GLORIA specifies a rigorous mapping and sampling design for data collection, with re-measurement intervals of five years. Whereas TRs have been installed in six continents, prior to 2004 none was completed in North America. In cooperation with the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT), California Native Plant Society, and the White Mountain Research Station, four TRs have been installed in California: two in the Sierra Nevada and two in the White Mountains. We present comparative results from analyses of baseline data across these four TRs. The number of species occurring in the northern Sierra (Tahoe) TR was 35 (16 not found in other TRs); in the central Sierra (Dunderberg) TR 65 species were found. In the White Mountains, 54 species were found on the granitic/volcanic soils TR and 46 (19 not found in other TRs) on the dolomitic soils TR. In all, we observed 83 species in the Sierra Nevada range TRs and 75 in the White Mountain TRs. Using a mixed model ANOVA of percent cover from summit-area-sections and quadrat data, we found primary differences to be among mountain ranges. Major soil differences (dolomite versus non-dolomite) also contribute to floristic differentiation. Aspect did not seem to contribute significantly to diversity either among or within target regions. Summit floras in each target region comprised groups of two distinct types of species: those with notably broad elevational ranges and those with narrow elevational ranges. The former we propose to be species that retain importance in vegetation structure across elevation and the latter to be more sensitive to climate change. In general, we find common species in the Sierra Nevada to be rare in the White Mountains, that the northern Sierra Nevada TR (Tahoe area) to be distinct in many vegetation features, and that distinct substrate differences in the White Mountains delineate significant species diversities. With four target regions, we document patterns of species composition, distribution, and diversity with respect to elevation, aspect, and geographic distance. This provides new information about summit floras in the White Mountains and Sierra Nevada, and documents baseline conditions against which we will measure response to climate change.

  14. Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes.

    PubMed

    Kuhn, Emilien; Lenoir, Jonathan; Piedallu, Christian; Gégout, Jean-Claude

    2016-06-01

    Poleward and upward species range shifts are the most commonly anticipated and studied consequences of climate warming. However, these global responses to climate change obscure more complex distribution change patterns. We hypothesize that the spatial arrangement of mountain ranges and, consequently, climatic gradients in Europe, will result in range disjunctions. This hypothesis was investigated for submountainous forest plant species at two temporal and spatial scales: (i) under future climate change (between 1950-2000 and 2061-2080 periods) at the European scale and (ii) under contemporary climate change (between 1914-1987 and 1997-2013 periods) at the French scale. We selected 97 submountainous forest plant species occurring in France, among which distribution data across Europe are available for 25 species. By projecting future distribution changes for the 25 submountainous plant species across Europe, we demonstrated that range disjunction is a likely consequence of future climate change. To assess whether it is already taking place, we used a large forest vegetation-plot database covering the entire French territory over 100 years (1914-2013) and found an average decrease in frequency (-0.01 ± 0.004) in lowland areas for the 97 submountainous species - corresponding to a loss of 6% of their historical frequency - along with southward and upward range shifts, suggesting early signs of range disjunctions. Climate-induced range disjunctions should be considered more carefully since they could have dramatic consequences on population genetics and the ability of species to face future climate changes. PMID:26845484

  15. Water erosion on areas planted to potato in Tucumán by climate change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rios Caceres, Arq. Estela Alejandra; Rios, Victor Hugo; Lucena, Valeria; Guyot, Elia

    Climate changes, monitored by experts from all over the world, have been a matter of con-sciousness raising about the impacts global warming will have on all areas of interest on the planet. The foreseeable direct impacts expected from this evidence are clear: fewer water reserves for agricultural, industrial and urban use; acceleration of desertification processess; destruction of freshwater ecosystems; ecosystem modification due to a drop in rainfall and an increase in temperature to the north of the XI. Region; disappearance of large areas of snow and ice; severe erosion of unprotected basins; reduced water availability for plants in non irrigated land, due to an increase in rain fall intensity. Climate changes demand from the Argentine society a much greater effort than it has been made up to now to mitigate the impacts on our territory and its inhabitants. Potato crop is of a great economic importance in the agricultural GDP of the province of Tucumán (4th place), the geographic location of its production area a is a fragile agro-ecosystem and for this reason the management of water erosion problems is essential. Therefore the aim of this work is to improve potatoe crop irrigation management through information from satellites combined with farm practice. The digital terrain model was obtained from ASTER images. Irrigation practices were followed by an irrigation management software (FAO) and satellite image processing (ENVI). Preliminary results of this experience enabled, through a multi temporal study, the observation of the evolution of crops and irriga-tion practices rescheduling for next season reducing detected water erosion and economically optimizing productivity.

  16. Population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a pioneer annual plant endemic to mobile sand dunes, in response to global climate change.

    PubMed

    Qian, Chaoju; Yin, Hengxia; Shi, Yong; Zhao, Jiecai; Yin, Chengliang; Luo, Wanyin; Dong, Zhibao; Chen, Guoxiong; Yan, Xia; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Ma, Xiao-Fei

    2016-01-01

    Climate change plays an important role in the transition of ecosystems. Stratigraphic investigations have suggested that the Asian interior experienced frequent transitions between grassland and desert ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change. Using maternally and bi-parentally inherited markers, we investigated the population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), an annual pioneer plant endemic to mobile sand dunes. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that A. squarrosum could originate from Gurbantunggut desert since ~1.6 Ma, and subsequently underwent three waves of colonisation into other deserts and sandy lands corresponding to several glaciations. The rapid population expansion and distribution range shifts of A. squarrosum from monsoonal climate zones suggested that the development of the monsoonal climate significantly enhanced the population growth and gene flow of A. squarrosum. These data also suggested that desertification of the fragile grassland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was more ancient than previously suggested and will be aggravated under global warming in the future. This study provides new molecular phylogeographic insights into how pioneer annual plant species in desert ecosystems respond to global climate change, and facilitates evaluation of the ecological potential and genetic resources of future crops for non-arable dry lands to mitigate climate change. PMID:27210568

  17. Climate Change Schools Project...

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project

  18. Climate Change Schools Project...

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  19. Tidal wetland plant and algal assemblages in Oregon: spatial patterns of composition and vulnerability to climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    Tidal wetlands support important ecosystem functions along the coast of the Pacific Northwest such as primary production and nutrient transformation. Sea-level rise (SLR) and elevated salinity due to climate change may affect the abundance, distribution, and diversity of plants a...

  20. Elevated CO2 does not offset greater water stress predicted under climate change for native and exotic riparian plants

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In semiarid western North American riparian ecosystems, increased drought and lower streamflows under climate change may reduce plant growth and recruitment, and favor drought-tolerant exotic species over mesic native species. We tested whether elevated atmospheric CO2 might ameliorate these effects...

  1. Sea Level Rise and Climate Change Effects on Marsh Plants Spartina Alterniflora and Typha Angustifolia Using Mesocosms

    EPA Science Inventory

    A four month experiment using greenhouse mesocosms was conducted to analyze the effect of sea level rise and climate change on salt marsh plants Spartina alterniflora (cordgrass) and Typha angustifolia (narrow-leaved cattail). Our goal was to examine the effects of three differen...

  2. Outchasing climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    Pygmy possums, monarch butterflies, spoon-billed sandpipers, and a number of trees and other plants could be among the species unable to migrate fast enough to new habitat in the face of potential global climate changes, according to an August 30 report by the Switzerland-based World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the U.S. based Clean-Air-Cool Planet (CACP), two conservation organizations.

  3. White pine and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobson, G.L. Jr.; Dieffenbacher-Krall, A.

    1995-07-01

    In the past changing climates have lead to numerous continent-scale reorganizations of biotal. During the Quaternary Period climate has oscillated regularly between glacial and interglacial conditions, causing the ranges of many species to ship hundreds and even thousands of kilometers. On short time scales, clime changes that are less dramatic have influenced the regional distibution and abundance of plant taxa. This paper focus on post glacial changes in the distribution and abundance of white pine during the past 12,000 years in eastern North America; responses of white pine to past climate change, and implications for future responses of northeastern forests to climate change.

  4. Use of an automated digital images system for detecting plant status changes in response to climate change manipulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cesaraccio, Carla; Piga, Alessandra; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Angelo; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2014-05-01

    The importance of phenological research for understanding the consequences of global environmental change on vegetation is highlighted in the most recent IPCC reports. Collecting time series of phenological events appears to be of crucial importance to better understand how vegetation systems respond to climatic regime fluctuations, and, consequently, to develop effective management and adaptation strategies. However, traditional monitoring of phenology is labor intensive and costly and affected to a certain degree of subjective inaccuracy. Other methods used to quantify the seasonal patterns of vegetation development are based on satellite remote sensing (land surface phenology) but they operate at coarse spatial and temporal resolution. To overcome the issues of these methodologies different approaches for vegetation monitoring based on "near-surface" remote sensing have been proposed in recent researches. In particular, the use of digital cameras has become more common for phenological monitoring. Digital images provide spectral information in the red, green, and blue (RGB) wavelengths. Inflection points in seasonal variations of intensities of each color channel can be used to identify phenological events. Canopy green-up phenology can be quantified from the greenness indices. Species-specific dates of leaf emergence can be estimated by RGB image analyses. In this research, an Automated Phenological Observation System (APOS), based on digital image sensors, was used for monitoring the phenological behavior of shrubland species in a Mediterranean site. The system was developed under the INCREASE (an Integrated Network on Climate Change Research) EU-funded research infrastructure project, which is based upon large scale field experiments with non-intrusive climatic manipulations. Monitoring of phenological behavior was conducted continuously since October 2012. The system was set to acquire one panorama per day at noon which included three experimental plots for climate manipulations: control (no manipulation), warming (overnight cover), and drought (interception of the periodic precipitation) treatments (36 shots x panorama (3 rows x 12 columns) with a degree of overlapping equal to 30%). On each panorama, ROIs (Regions of Interest) focusing major species of the shrubland ecosystem were identified. Then, image analysis was performed to obtain information on vegetation status (i.e. color signals and phenology). The color channel information (digital numbers; DNs) were extracted from the RAW file. The overall brightness (i.e., total RGB DN, green excess index) was also calculated. Finally, the RGB value was correlated with the pattern of phenological development. Preliminary results of this study show that the use of digital images are well-suited to identify phenological pattern of the Mediterranean species. Results of digital images analysis can be a valuable support for ecologists, environmental scientists, and land managers providing information useful to interpret phenological responses of plants to climate change, to validate satellite-based phenology data, and to provide input to adaption strategies plans to climate change.

  5. On the role of plant volatiles in anthropogenic global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unger, Nadine

    2014-12-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems undergo rapid oxidation in the atmosphere that affects multiple warming and cooling climate pollutants. Since the preindustrial, BVOC-chemistry-climate interactions have been strongly influenced by anthropogenic changes in land cover, pollution emissions, and the physical climate state. Here, an Earth system model is applied to quantify the effects of BVOC emissions on the global radiation balance in the 1850s and 2000s including changes to tropospheric ozone, methane, and direct aerosol-radiation interactions. The net chemical forcing of global climate due to all known anthropogenic influences on BVOC emissions is -0.17 Wm-2 (cooling) that offsets the +0.10 Wm-2 (warming) due to anthropogenic VOC emissions from fossil fuel use and industry for this time period. BVOC emissions need to be included in assessments of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

  6. The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J.; Yu, Lizhong

    2016-01-01

    Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change. PMID:26725308

  7. The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.

    PubMed

    Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J; Yu, Lizhong

    2016-01-01

    Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change. PMID:26725308

  8. Climate Change: Basic Information

    MedlinePlus

    ... on a local or state level to support energy efficiency, clean energy programs, or other climate programs. Learn more about ... blank Climate Connections blank blank blank International Partnerships Clean Energy blank blank Climate Change Impacts blank blank Students' ...

  9. Some poleward movement of British native vascular plants is occurring, but the fingerprint of climate change is not evident

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Recent upperward migration of plants and animals along altitudinal gradients and poleward movement of animal range boundaries have been confirmed by many studies. This phenomenon is considered to be part of the fingerprint of recent climate change on the biosphere. Here I examine whether poleward movement is occurring in the vascular plants of Great Britain. The ranges of plants were determined from detection/non-detection data in two periods, 1978 to 1994 and 1995 to 2011. From these, the centre of mass of the population was calculated and the magnitude and direction of range shifts were determined from movements of the centre of mass. A small, but significant, northward movement could be detected in plants with expanding ranges, but not among declining species. Species from warmer ranges were not more likely to be moving northward, nor was dispersal syndrome a predictor of migration success. It is concluded that simply looking at northward movement of species is not an effective way to identify the effect of climate change on plant migration and that other anthropogenic changes obscure the effect of climate. PMID:23734340

  10. Increased Fitness of Rice Plants to Abiotic Stress Via Habitat Adapted Symbiosis: A Strategy for Mitigating Impacts of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Redman, Regina S.; Kim, Yong Ok; Woodward, Claire J. D. A.; Greer, Chris; Espino, Luis; Doty, Sharon L.; Rodriguez, Rusty J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and catastrophic events have contributed to rice shortages in several regions due to decreased water availability and soil salinization. Although not adapted to salt or drought stress, two commercial rice varieties achieved tolerance to these stresses by colonizing them with Class 2 fungal endophytes isolated from plants growing across moisture and salinity gradients. Plant growth and development, water usage, ROS sensitivity and osmolytes were measured with and without stress under controlled conditions. The endophytes conferred salt, drought and cold tolerance to growth chamber and greenhouse grown plants. Endophytes reduced water consumption by 20–30% and increased growth rate, reproductive yield, and biomass of greenhouse grown plants. In the absence of stress, there was no apparent cost of the endophytes to plants, however, endophyte colonization decreased from 100% at planting to 65% compared to greenhouse plants grown under continual stress (maintained 100% colonization). These findings indicate that rice plants can exhibit enhanced stress tolerance via symbiosis with Class 2 endophytes, and suggest that symbiotic technology may be useful in mitigating impacts of climate change on other crops and expanding agricultural production onto marginal lands. PMID:21750695

  11. Increased fitness of rice plants to abiotic stress via habitat adapted symbiosis: A strategy for mitigating impacts of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Redman, R.S.; Kim, Y.-O.; Woodward, C.J.D.A.; Greer, C.; Espino, L.; Doty, S.L.; Rodriguez, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and catastrophic events have contributed to rice shortages in several regions due to decreased water availability and soil salinization. Although not adapted to salt or drought stress, two commercial rice varieties achieved tolerance to these stresses by colonizing them with Class 2 fungal endophytes isolated from plants growing across moisture and salinity gradients. Plant growth and development, water usage, ROS sensitivity and osmolytes were measured with and without stress under controlled conditions. The endophytes conferred salt, drought and cold tolerance to growth chamber and greenhouse grown plants. Endophytes reduced water consumption by 20–30% and increased growth rate, reproductive yield, and biomass of greenhouse grown plants. In the absence of stress, there was no apparent cost of the endophytes to plants, however, endophyte colonization decreased from 100% at planting to 65% compared to greenhouse plants grown under continual stress (maintained 100% colonization). These findings indicate that rice plants can exhibit enhanced stress tolerance via symbiosis with Class 2 endophytes, and suggest that symbiotic technology may be useful in mitigating impacts of climate change on other crops and expanding agricultural production onto marginal lands.

  12. Quantifying the importance of plant functional diversity for ecosystem functioning and resilience under scenarios of climate change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlick, R.; Drewry, D.; Kleidon, A.

    2013-12-01

    Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) typically employ only a small set of Plant Functional Types (PFTs) to represent the vast diversity of observed vegetation forms and functioning. There is growing evidence, however, that this abstraction may not adequately represent the observed variation in plant functional traits, which is thought to play an important role for many ecosystem functions and for ecosystem resilience to environmental change. The geographic distribution of PFTs in these models is also often based on empirical relationships between present-day climate and vegetation patterns. Projections of future climate change, however, point toward the possibility of novel regional climates, which could lead to no-analog vegetation compositions incompatible with the PFT paradigm. Here, we present results from the Jena Diversity-DGVM (JeDi-DGVM), a novel traits-based vegetation model, which simulates a large number of hypothetical plant growth strategies constrained by functional tradeoffs, thereby allowing for a more flexible temporal and spatial representation of the terrestrial biosphere. We run two sets of model experiments forced with the latest bias-corrected climate change scenarios from several different global climate models. In the first set, we simulate a diverse biosphere using a large number of plant growth strategies, allowing the modelled ecosystems to adapt through emergent changes in ecosystem composition. We then aggregate the surviving growth strategies from the first set of diverse simulations to a small number of biome-averaged growth strategies, recreating something akin to PFTs. We use this smaller set of PFT-like growth strategies to represent a sparse or low-diversity biosphere in the second set of model experiments. We quantify the importance of functional diversity by comparing key metrics of ecosystem functioning across the two sets of simulations. The results reveal the implications of using the common PFT vegetation modelling paradigm versus a more diverse approach and may help to quantify the value of biodiversity conservation efforts.

  13. Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Mendoza-González, Gabriela; Martínez, M Luisa; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Vázquez, Gabriela; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B

    2013-08-01

    Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios. PMID:23625760

  14. Influence of atmospheric and climatic change on plant-pathogen interactions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Atmospheric change studies conducted in Free Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) systems and open topped chambers have increased our understanding of how factors, such as rising CO2 and O3 levels, impact the development of plant disease epidemics. Using these systems, plant scientists have been able...

  15. Climate Change and Health

    MedlinePlus

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet N°266 Updated September ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  16. Fiddling with climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2012-01-01

    Composer and string musician, turned award-winning environmentalist, Aubrey Meyer tells Nature Climate Change why he is campaigning for countries to adopt his 'contraction and convergence' model of global development to avoid dangerous climate change.

  17. Potential climate change impacts on tidal wetland plant and algal assemblages in the Pacific Northwest

    EPA Science Inventory

    Tidal wetlands along the coast of the Pacific Northwest provide wildlife habitat and support important ecosystem functions such as primary productivity. The future structure and function of these ecosystems may be altered by sea-level rise (SLR) or other climate change effects. W...

  18. Developing robust crop plants for sustaining growth and yield under adverse climatic changes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural production and quality are expected to suffer from adverse changes in climatic conditions, including global warming, and this will affect worldwide human and animal food security. Global warming has been shown to negatively impact crop yield and therefore will affect sustainability of a...

  19. Plant defenses and climate change: doom or destiny for the lodgepole pine?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Lodgepole pine is a species of great importance to the forestry industry of British Columbia. However, recent climate-change associated outbreaks of insect pests (i.e. the mountain pine beetle) and diseases (Dothistroma needle blight) have limited productivity of stands throughout its northern range...

  20. Stochastic Modeling of Soil Water and Plant Water Stress Using Cumulant Expansion Theory and Its Application to Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Lee, A.; Keem, M.; Shin, H.

    2009-12-01

    For better understanding of soil water and plant water stress dynamics, a stochastic soil water and plant water stress model will be proposed and applied to climate change impact assessment. The proposed model is derived by using cumulant expansion theory from a stochastic differential equation with stochastic rainfall forcings. This model has the advantage of providing the probabilistic solution in the form of a probability distribution function, from which the ensemble average behavior of the system can be obtained easily. Also, since this model uses only the statistics of rainfall time series, the effect of different climate conditions on the soil water and plant water stress dynamics can be incorporated effectively. The simulation result of soil water confirms that the proposed model can reproduce the observation properly and shows that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. In order to understand the impact of climate change on soil water and plant water stress behaviors, the RCM data developed by Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA RCM) and the third GCM by Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis(CGCM3) are used with two time periods of 2051~2060 and 2091~2100. With all the simulation results, it can be conclude that the simulation results will be different with what climate change scenario is selected since different climate change model predicts different soil water and plant water stress behaviors. This analysis can be expected as a starting point for better understanding of the effect of soil water on ecosystem dynamics such as climate-soil-vegetation interaction. Figure 1. The evolution of the soil water PDF. The soil water PDFs have two different patterns according to wet season from June to September and dry season from October to May. From such result, it can be inferred that the mechanisms which influence the soil water behavior are different in wet and dry seasons. That is to say, in wet season, the external force of the system which is precipitation herein has a controlling effect on soil water dynamics, while the system itself, say soil and vegetation, is the dominant factor of influencing the dry season soil water behavior.

  1. The Changing Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schneider, Stephen H.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses the global change of climate. Presents the trend of climate change with graphs. Describes mathematical climate models including expressions for the interacting components of the ocean-atmosphere system and equations representing the basic physical laws governing their behavior. Provides three possible responses on the change. (YP)

  2. A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for all native Hawaiian plants

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fortini, Lucas; Price, Jonathan; Jacobi, James; Vorsino, Adam; Burgett, Jeff; Brinck, Kevin W.; Amidon, Fred; Miller, Steve; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam, III; Koob, Gregory; Paxton, Eben

    2013-01-01

    In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species to define zones across the landscape: the toleration zone; the microrefugia zone; and the migration zone. Using these response zones we calculated a diverse set of factors related to habitat area, quality, and distribution for each species, including the amount of habitat protection and fragmentation and areas projected to be lost to sea-level rise. We then calculated the probabilities of each species exhibiting these responses using a Bayesian network model and determined the overall climate change vulnerability of each species by using a vulnerability index. As a first iteration of a response-based species vulnerability assessment (VA), our landscape-based analysis effectively integrates species-distribution models into a Bayesian network-based VA that can be updated with improved models and data for more refined analyses in the future. Our results show that the species most vulnerable to climate change also tend to be species of conservation concern due to non-climatic threats (e.g., competition and predation from invasive species, land-use change). Also, many of Hawaiʽi’s taxa that are most vulnerable to climate change share characteristics with species that in the past were found to be at risk of extinction due to non-climatic threats (e.g., archipelago endemism, single-island endemism). Of particular concern are the numerous species that have no compatible-climate areas remaining by the year 2100. Species primarily associated with dry forests have higher vulnerability scores than species from any other habitat type. When examined at taxonomic levels above species, low vulnerabilities are concentrated in families and genera of generalists (e.g., ferns or sedges) and typically associated with mid-elevation wet habitats. Our results replicate findings from other regions that link higher species vulnerability with decreasing range size. This species VA is possibly the largest in scope ever conducted in the United States with over 1000 species considered, 319 of which are listed as endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, filling a critical knowledge gap for resource managers in the region. The information in this assessment can help prioritize species for special conservation actions, guide the management of conservation areas, inform the selection of research and monitoring priorities, and support adaptive management planning and implementation.

  3. Non-linear feedbacks between climate change, hydrologic partitioning, plant available water, and carbon cycling in montane forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, P. D.; Litvak, M. E.; Harpold, A. A.; Molotch, N. P.; McIntosh, J. C.; Troch, P. A.; Zapata, X.

    2011-12-01

    Changes in both temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation have the potential to profoundly impact water balance in mountain ecosystems. Although changes in the amount of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are widely considered in climate change scenarios, less attention has been given to how changes in climate or land cover may affect hydrologic partitioning and plant available water. The focus of this presentation is on how spatial transitions in ecosystem structure and temporal transitions in climate affect the fraction of precipitation potentially available to vegetation. In most temperate mountain environments winter snows are a significant fraction of annual precipitation and understanding the partitioning of snow and snow melt is critical for predicting both ecosystem water availability and stream flow under future climate scenarios. Spatial variability in net snow water input is a function of the interaction of snowfall, wind, and solar radiation with topography and vegetation structure. Integrated over larger scales these interactions may result in between 0% and 40% sublimation of winter snowfall before melt, effectively excluding this water from growing season water balance. Once melt begins, variability in the partitioning of snowmelt is driven by the rate of melt, and somewhat less intuitively, by the timing of snow accumulation the previous fall. Early accumulating snowpacks insulate soils and minimize soil frost increasing infiltration of melt the following spring. In contrast, later snowfall results in colder soils, more soil frost, reduced infiltration, increased runoff during melt, and reduced plant available water during the following growing season. This change in hydrologic partitioning, mediated by the timing of snowpack accumulation, results in lower evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) the following spring. These findings suggest that abiotic controls on the partitioning of precipitation may exacerbate or attenuate the effects of climate change on mountain water balance.

  4. Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns

    PubMed Central

    Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Henry, Gregory H. R.; Hollister, Robert D.; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A.; Hermanutz, Luise; Hofgaard, Annika; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S.; Jorgenson, Janet C.; Lévesque, Esther; Magnusson, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Rixen, Christian; Tweedie, Craig E.; Walker, Marilyn D.

    2015-01-01

    Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming. PMID:25548195

  5. Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns.

    PubMed

    Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Hermanutz, Luise; Hofgaard, Annika; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg I; Jorgenson, Janet C; Lévesque, Esther; Magnusson, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Rixen, Christian; Tweedie, Craig E; Walker, Marilyn D; Walker, Marilyn

    2015-01-13

    Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming. PMID:25548195

  6. Terrestrial Plant Biomarkers Preserved in Cariaco Basin Sediments: Records of Abrupt Tropical Vegetation Response to Rapid Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughen, K. A.; Eglinton, T. I.; Makou, M.; Xu, L.; Sylva, S.

    2004-12-01

    Organic-rich sediments from the anoxic Cariaco Basin, Venezuela, preserve high concentrations of biomarkers for reconstruction of terrestrial environmental conditions. Molecular-level investigations of organic compounds provide a valuable tool for extracting terrestrial signals from these annually laminated marine sediments. Differences in hydrogen isotopic fractionation between C16-18 and C24-30 n-alkanoic acids suggest a marine source for the shorter chain lengths and a terrestrial source for the longer chains. Records of carbon and hydrogen isotopes, as well as average carbon chain length (ACL), from long-chain n-alkanoic acids parallel millennial-scale changes in vegetation and climate between the late Glacial and Preboreal periods, 15,000 to 10,000 years ago. Data from all terrestrial chain lengths were combined to produce single δ D and δ 13C indices through deglaciation, exhibiting enrichment during the late Glacial and Younger Dryas and depletion during the Bolling-Allerod and Preboreal periods. δ D reflects the hydrogen isotopic composition of environmental water used for plant growth, combined with evaporative enrichment within leaf spaces, and as such may act as a proxy for local aridity. Leaf wax δ 13C, which is a proxy for C3 versus C4 metabolic pathways, indicates that C3 plants predominated in the Cariaco watershed during warm/wet Bolling-Allerod and Holocene periods, and C4 plant biomass proliferated during cool/dry Glacial and Younger Dryas intervals. Coupled carbon and hydrogen isotopic measurements together clearly distinguish deglacial climatic periods as wetter with C3 vegetation versus drier with C4 vegetation. High resolution biomarker records reveal the rapidity of vegetation changes in northern South America during the last deglaciation. The leaf wax data reveal that local vegetation biomass, although not necessarily entire assemblages, shifted between arid grassland and wetter forest taxa on timescales of decades. Comparison of ACL versus δ 13C for Cariaco Basin and NW African leaf waxes indicate that biomarkers reflect real changes in local South American vegetation and not contamination from long-distance transport during cold windy climates. The precise temporal relationship between tropical vegetation shifts and climate changes is measured by direct comparison of terrestrial vegetation and climate proxies from the same core. Abrupt deglacial climate shifts in tropical and high-latitude North Atlantic regions were synchronous, whereas changes in tropical vegetation consistently lagged climate shifts by several decades.

  7. Our changing climate

    SciTech Connect

    Kandel, R.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything.

  8. Impact of future climate change on wheat production in relation to plant-available water capacity in a semiaridenvironment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yanmin; Liu, De Li; Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Zuo, Heping; Yang, Yonghui

    2014-02-01

    Conceptions encompassing climate change are irreversible rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, increased temperature, and changes in rainfall both in spatial- and temporal-scales worldwide. This will have a major impact on wheat production, particularly if crops are frequently exposed to a sequence, frequency, and intensity of specific weather events like high temperature during growth period. However, the process of wheat response to climate change is complex and compounded by interactions among atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variables, soil, nutrition, and agronomic management. In this study, we use the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model, driven by statistically downscaled climate projections of 18 global circulation models (GCMs) under the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 CO2 emission scenario to examine impact on future wheat yields across key wheat growing regions considering different soil types in New South Wales (NSW) of Australia. The response of wheat yield, yield components, and phenology vary across sites and soil types, but yield is closely related to plant available water capacity (PAWC). Results show a decreasing yield trend during the period of 2021-2040 compared to the baseline period of 1961-1990. Across different wheat-growing regions in NSW, grain yield difference in the future period (2021-2040) over the baseline (1961-1990) varies from +3.4 to -14.7 %, and in most sites, grain number is decreased, while grain size is increased in future climate. Reduction of wheat yield is mainly due to shorter growth duration, where average flowering and maturing time are advanced by an average of 11 and 12 days, respectively. In general, larger negative impacts of climate change are exhibited in those sites with higher PAWC. Current wheat cultivars with shorter growing season properties are viable in the future climate, but breading for early sowing wheat varieties with longer growing duration will be a desirable adaptation strategy for mitigating the impact of changing climate on wheat yield.

  9. Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA.

    PubMed

    McDonnell, T C; Belyazid, S; Sullivan, T J; Sverdrup, H; Bowman, W D; Porter, E M

    2014-04-01

    To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010-2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone. PMID:24448482

  10. Climate change impairs processes of soil and plant N cycling in European beech forests on marginal soil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tejedor, Javier; Gasche, Rainer; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Leberecht, Martin; Bimüller, Carolin; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Pole, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Rennenberg, Heinz; Simon, Judy; Hanewinkel, Marc; Baltensweiler, Andri; Bilela, Silvija; Dannenmann, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Beech forests of Central Europe are covering large areas with marginal calcareous soils, but provide important ecological services and represent a significant economical value. The vulnerability of these ecosystems to projected climate conditions (higher temperatures, increase of extreme drought and precipitation events) is currently unclear. Here we present comprehensive data on the influence of climate change conditions on ecosystem performance, considering soil nitrogen biogeochemistry, soil microbiology, mycorrhiza ecology and plant physiology. We simultaneously quantified major plant and soil gross N turnover processes by homogenous triple 15N isotope labeling of intact beech natural regeneration-soil-microbe systems. This isotope approach was combined with a space for time climate change experiment, i.e. we transferred intact beech seedling-soil-microbe mesocosms from a slope with N-exposure (representing present day climate conditions) to a slope with S exposure (serving as a warmer and drier model climate for future conditions). Transfers within N slope served as controls. After an equilibration period of 1 year, three isotope labeling/harvest cycles were performed. Reduced soil water content resulted in a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria in soil (AOB). Consequently, we found a massive five-fold reduction of gross nitrification in the climate change treatment and a subsequent strong decline in soil nitrate concentrations as well as nitrate uptake by microorganisms and beech. Because nitrate was the major nutrient for beech in this forest type with little importance of ammonium and amino acids, this resulted in a strongly reduced performance of beech natural regeneration with reduced N content, N metabolite concentrations and plant biomass. These findings provided an explanation for a large-scale decline of distribution of beech forests on calcareous soils in Europe by almost 80% until 2080 predicted by statistical modeling. Hence, we question the sustainability of such forests under projected climate change conditions, but also discuss potential mitigation and adaptation options. Important comment: The topic of this abstract is subject to a press embargo, because it is in review at a Nature Journal

  11. History of Plant Phenological Observation in Hungary and Plans for Renewal of System to detect Evidence of the Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunkar, M.; Dunkel, Z.

    2009-04-01

    The first plant protection warning was issued 1760 by the Senate of the Town of Debrecen concerning the destruction of caterpillar's nest. In the middle of the 19th century the first responsible Hungarian Government issued a note in which the minister takes measurements for the phytosanitary safety of agricultural products. Though Hungary had not got independent institutional system for plant protection at the end of the 19th c., still in the middle of the 1870s, the territory of the country was protected with harmonised quarantine measures from the introduction of Colorado beetle. A new era started both in Europe and in Hungary with the devastation caused by Phylloxera vastatrix in vineyards. In 1876, the Act 29 definitely specified the measures to be taken for preventing the spread of the pest and the damages caused by it; and it was proclaimed in both Chambers of the Parliament. This incident resulted basically in the launching for the establishment of an independent plant protection institution. In l880, the National Committee on Phylloxera, then in 1881, the National Experimental Station for Phylloxera was set up, this latter considered as the first nucleus of the Hungarian plant protection organisation. The international plant protection convention, concluded in 1929 and signed by our country, had a great role in the history of the development of the plant protection organisation. Hungary agreed to establish an official plant protection organization which should consist of a plant protection service and a research institute. In compliance with the Ministerial Decree 49.000/1932 the Hungarian Plant Protection Service was set up which can now be taken for the first organisation of the uniform national plant protection administration system. Plant protection stations were established in 1954. The plant phenological observation network was run by the plant protection administration but financially was maintained by OMSZ therefore the main aim of the phenological observation in Hungary is to give information for plant protection forecast. The system was time to time renewed, last tin in 1984. The system was closed in 2001because of financial restriction. Taking into consideration of necessity of systematic phenological observation mainly as a possible tool of climate change detection and seeing the results of COST Action 725 a project proposal was submitted for reconstruction of phonological network. Beside the main historical milestones of Hungarian phenological history the most important elements of the new plan will be shown. Since climate change expressed by the responses of the vegetation system our investigation is focused to long time data series like the Book of Vine Branches which contains the conditions of wine branches year by year on St. George day 24 April since 1740.

  12. Stomatal and mesophyll conductances to CO₂ in different plant groups: underrated factors for predicting leaf photosynthesis responses to climate change?

    PubMed

    Flexas, Jaume; Carriquí, Marc; Coopman, Rafael E; Gago, Jorge; Galmés, Jeroni; Martorell, Sebastià; Morales, Fermín; Diaz-Espejo, Antonio

    2014-09-01

    The climate change conditions predicted for the end of the current century are expected to have an impact on the performance of plants under natural conditions. The variables which are foreseen to have a larger effect are increased CO2 concentration and temperature. Although it is generally considered CO2 assimilation rate could be increased by the increasing levels of CO2, it has been reported in previous studies that acclimation to high CO2 results in reductions of physiological parameters involved in photosynthesis, like the maximum carboxylation rate (Vc,max), stomatal conductance (gs) and mesophyll conductance to CO2 (gm). On the one hand, most of the previous modeling efforts have neglected the potential role played by the acclimation of gm to high CO2 and temperature. On the other hand, the effect of climate change on plant clades other than angiosperms, like ferns, has received little attention, and there are no studies evaluating the potential impact of increasing CO2 and temperature on these species. In this study we predicted responses of several representative species among angiosperms, gymnosperms and ferns to increasing CO2 and temperature. Our results show that species with lower photosynthetic capacity - such as some ferns and gymnosperms - would be proportionally more favored under these foreseen environmental conditions. The main reason for this difference is the lower diffusion limitation imposed by gs and gm in plants having high capacity for photosynthesis among the angiosperms, which reduces the positive effect of increasing CO2. However, this apparent advantage of low-diffusion species would be canceled if the two conductances - gs and gm - acclimate and are down regulated to high CO2, which is basically unknown, especially for gymnosperms and ferns. Hence, for a better understanding of different plant responses to future climate, studies are urged in which the actual photosynthetic response/acclimation to increased CO2 and temperature of ferns, gymnosperms and other under-evaluated plant groups is assessed. PMID:25113449

  13. Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Dorothy K.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)

  14. Coping with climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prato, Tony; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2006-01-01

    Climate is not the only factor in the deterioration of natural systems.We are making big changes to the landscape, altering land use and land cover in major ways. These changes combined present a challenge to environmental management. Adaptive management is a scientific approach to managing the adverse impacts of climate and landscape change.

  15. Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula

    PubMed Central

    Koo, Kyung Ah; Kong, Woo-Seok; Nibbelink, Nathan P.; Hopkinson, Charles S.; Lee, Joon Ho

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has caused shifts in species’ ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula. PMID:26262755

  16. Our Changing Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  17. Our Changing Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,

  18. Climate change and children.

    PubMed

    Ebi, Kristie L; Paulson, Jerome A

    2007-04-01

    Climate change is increasing the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes worldwide. Acting through increasing temperature, changes in the hydrologic cycle, and sea level rise, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events and extreme events (floods and droughts), change the geographic range and incidence of climate-sensitive vector-, food-, and waterborne diseases, and increase diseases associated with air pollution and aeroallergens. Children are particularly vulnerable to these health outcomes because of their potentially greater exposures, greater sensitivity to certain exposures, and their dependence on caregivers. PMID:17448357

  19. Bunyaviruses and climate change.

    PubMed

    Elliott, R M

    2009-06-01

    It is generally accepted that the planet is undergoing climatic changes, and 'climate change' has become the scapegoat for many catastrophes, including infectious disease outbreaks, as acknowledged by Randolph and Ergonul, who state 'Climate change is the current ubiquitous explanation for increased incidence of infections of many sorts' (Future Virology 2008; 3: 303-306). However, as these authors argue, this is a highly simplistic view and, indeed, there is a complex network of factors that are responsible for disease emergence and re-emergence. In this short review, the role that climate change could play in the emergence of bunyavirus disease is considered, using a few selected examples. PMID:19604275

  20. Degree of herbivore feeding damage as an important contributor to multitrophic plant-parasitoid signaling under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Nerg, Anne-Marja; Holopainen, Jarmo K

    2009-01-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) serve as signals mediating information between plants and their higher trophic level beneficials, such as parasitoids and predators of herbivores. We recently demonstrated with oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) plants, herbivorous diamond-back moth (Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae)) larvae and Cotesia vestalis (Haliday) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) parasitoids that atmospheric pollution, i.e., elevated ozone (O3), can disturb attraction of natural enemies by plant-emitted host-induced volatile cues. Additionally, we found that the degree of herbivore feeding damage is an important contributor to this O3 interference. Low feeding damage in herbivore-resistant plants was sufficient to attract C. vestalis females to host-damaged plants under ambient air, but this tritrophic signaling turned non-functional in the combination of low feeding damage and high O3 concentration. Here we present some additional data of how climate change factors may modify feeding patterns and growth of herbivores. We further discuss how the degree of herbivore feeding damage and the tritrophic signaling interaction relaying on the herbivore-induced VOCs from attacked plants might change through direct and indirect effects of increased levels of carbon dioxide, temperature and O3. PMID:19721765

  1. Dictionary of global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Maunder, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    This book represents a revision of the climate change lexicon that was prepared for the Second World Climate Conference in 1990. The conference had 1400 participants and consisted of a scientific component followed by a ministerial meeting. To foster communication among the different constituencies, a lexicon of climate and climate change was prepared for the participants. The dictionary includes definitions and descriptions of most of the scientific terms, organizations, and programs related to the physical aspects of climate change. Nearly 40% of the material describes organized projects, experiments, or programs, mostly international. Some information on biological topics, such as the difference between C3 and C4 plants, is also included. The length of definitions and descriptions ranges from one line to one or more pages, with the longer descriptions usually related to programs.

  2. Climate change 2007 - mitigation of climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Metz, B.; Davidson, O.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Meyer, L.

    2007-07-01

    This volume of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art and worldwide overview of scientific knowledge related to the mitigation of climate change. It includes a detailed assessment of costs and potentials of mitigation technologies and practices, implementation barriers, and policy options for the sectors: energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management. It links sustainable development policies with climate change practices. This volume will again be the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change. Contents: Foreword; Preface; Summary for policymakers; Technical Summary; 1. Introduction; 2. Framing issues; 3. Issues related to mitigation in the long term context; 4. Energy supply; 5. Transport and its infrastructure; 6. Residential and commercial buildings; 7. Industry; 8. Agriculture; 9. Forestry; 10. Waste management; 11. Mitigation from a cross sectoral perspective; 12. Sustainable development and mitigation; 13. Policies, instruments and co-operative agreements. 300 figs., 50 tabs., 3 annexes.

  3. Climate change and mitigation.

    PubMed

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session "Climate Change and Mitigation" the speakers offered four different views on coal and CO2: the basis for life, but also a major hazard with impact on Earth's climate. A common denominator in the presentations was that more than ever science and technology is required. We need not only understand the mechanisms for climate change and climate variability, we also need to identify means to remedy the anthropogenic influence on Earth's climate. PMID:20873680

  4. As Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Smith, Joel B.

    1996-01-01

    This book is the result of the first comprehensive study of world wide climate fluctuations that is not primarily based on pre-existing literature reviews. The authors, employing original analysis, model runs, and data sets, use common climate change scenarios to examine the impacts on agriculture, water resources, coastal resources, forests and human health. The studies focus on the impacts of climate change in the developing countries around the world. In addition, the editors use Egypt as a case study, providing the first integrated analysis of a single country. This book will enable well-informed and up-to-date decisions by climate change researchers and policy makers.

  5. Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Major Native Non-Food Bioenergy Plants in China

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

    2014-01-01

    Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of “precipitation of the warmest quarter” and “annual mean temperature” were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China. PMID:25365425

  6. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

    2014-01-01

    Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China. PMID:25365425

  7. Historical climate change and speciation: neotropical seasonally dry forest plants show patterns of both tertiary and quaternary diversification.

    PubMed Central

    Pennington, R Toby; Lavin, Matt; Prado, Darién E; Pendry, Colin A; Pell, Susan K; Butterworth, Charles A

    2004-01-01

    Historical climate changes have had a major effect on the distribution and evolution of plant species in the neotropics. What is more controversial is whether relatively recent Pleistocene climatic changes have driven speciation, or whether neotropical species diversity is more ancient. This question is addressed using evolutionary rate analysis of sequence data of nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers in diverse taxa occupying neotropical seasonally dry forests, including Ruprechtia (Polygonaceae), robinioid legumes (Fabaceae), Chaetocalyx and Nissolia (Fabaceae), and Loxopterygium (Anacardiaceae). Species diversifications in these taxa occurred both during and before the Pleistocene in Central America, but were primarily pre-Pleistocene in South America. This indicates plausibility both for models that predict tropical species diversity to be recent and that invoke a role for Pleistocene climatic change, and those that consider it ancient and implicate geological factors such as the Andean orogeny and the closure of the Panama Isthmus. Cladistic vicariance analysis was attempted to identify common factors underlying evolution in these groups. In spite of the similar Mid-Miocene to Pliocene ages of the study taxa, and their high degree of endemism in the different fragments of South American dry forests, the analysis yielded equivocal, non-robust patterns of area relationships. PMID:15212100

  8. Historical climate change and speciation: neotropical seasonally dry forest plants show patterns of both tertiary and quaternary diversification.

    PubMed

    Pennington, R Toby; Lavin, Matt; Prado, Darién E; Pendry, Colin A; Pell, Susan K; Butterworth, Charles A

    2004-03-29

    Historical climate changes have had a major effect on the distribution and evolution of plant species in the neotropics. What is more controversial is whether relatively recent Pleistocene climatic changes have driven speciation, or whether neotropical species diversity is more ancient. This question is addressed using evolutionary rate analysis of sequence data of nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers in diverse taxa occupying neotropical seasonally dry forests, including Ruprechtia (Polygonaceae), robinioid legumes (Fabaceae), Chaetocalyx and Nissolia (Fabaceae), and Loxopterygium (Anacardiaceae). Species diversifications in these taxa occurred both during and before the Pleistocene in Central America, but were primarily pre-Pleistocene in South America. This indicates plausibility both for models that predict tropical species diversity to be recent and that invoke a role for Pleistocene climatic change, and those that consider it ancient and implicate geological factors such as the Andean orogeny and the closure of the Panama Isthmus. Cladistic vicariance analysis was attempted to identify common factors underlying evolution in these groups. In spite of the similar Mid-Miocene to Pliocene ages of the study taxa, and their high degree of endemism in the different fragments of South American dry forests, the analysis yielded equivocal, non-robust patterns of area relationships. PMID:15212100

  9. Physiological responses of herbaceous plants to climate change: a century long assessment based on the stable isotope analysis of herbaria specimens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno-Gutierrez, Cristina; Siegwolf, Rolf; Kahmen, Ansgar

    2015-04-01

    It is important to understand plant physiological responses to climate change, as these responses could influence global carbon and water cycles and could ultimately drive changes in plant communities' distribution and biodiversity. Some studies have already related drifts in species' distribution to climate change and manipulative experiments found short-term plant physiological responses to variations in climate. However, plant physiological responses may be species specific and their magnitude was found to decrease with time in these experimental studies. This indicates possible long-term processes of acclimation and adaptation in plants and urges the need to assess the long-term responses of plants to climate change. The isotopic analysis of archived plant material offers the exceptional opportunity to reconstruct the physiological activity of plants over long time periods. The carbon isotopic composition of plants is a good proxy of leaf-level intrinsic water use efficiency and leaf oxygen isotopic composition can provide a time-integrated indication of leaf stomatal conductance during the growing season. Previous studies analysing the physiological activity of plants over long time periods have largely focused on the stable isotope analyses of tree ring chronosequences. Trees represent, however, less than 2% of plant species found in Switzerland. The stable isotope analysis of herbarium samples offers the opportunity to reconstruct the physiological processes of a large range of different plant species from different environments. The objective of this study is to assess the long-term physiological responses of herbaceous plant species from diverse environments and functional groups to changes in climate occurred during the past centuries in Switzerland. In order to do so, leaf herbarium samples from a large number of herbaceous plants species are analysed for their stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios. Samples are collected from the unique herbaria hold at the University of Basel which cover 600'000 specimens collected mostly in Switzerland since the 18th century for a wide range of species and environments in Switzerland.

  10. Climate change in the oceans: evolutionary versus phenotypically plastic responses of marine animals and plants

    PubMed Central

    Reusch, Thorsten B H

    2014-01-01

    I summarize marine studies on plastic versus adaptive responses to global change. Due to the lack of time series, this review focuses largely on the potential for adaptive evolution in marine animals and plants. The approaches were mainly synchronic comparisons of phenotypically divergent populations, substituting spatial contrasts in temperature or CO2 environments for temporal changes, or in assessments of adaptive genetic diversity within populations for traits important under global change. The available literature is biased towards gastropods, crustaceans, cnidarians and macroalgae. Focal traits were mostly environmental tolerances, which correspond to phenotypic buffering, a plasticity type that maintains a functional phenotype despite external disturbance. Almost all studies address coastal species that are already today exposed to fluctuations in temperature, pH and oxygen levels. Recommendations for future research include (i) initiation and analyses of observational and experimental temporal studies encompassing diverse phenotypic traits (including diapausing cues, dispersal traits, reproductive timing, morphology) (ii) quantification of nongenetic trans-generational effects along with components of additive genetic variance (iii) adaptive changes in microbe–host associations under the holobiont model in response to global change (iv) evolution of plasticity patterns under increasingly fluctuating environments and extreme conditions and (v) joint consideration of demography and evolutionary adaptation in evolutionary rescue approaches. PMID:24454551

  11. Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

    PubMed

    Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

    2014-01-01

    Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival. PMID:24752011

  12. Abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Alley, R B; Marotzke, J; Nordhaus, W D; Overpeck, J T; Peteet, D M; Pielke, R A; Pierrehumbert, R T; Rhines, P B; Stocker, T F; Talley, L D; Wallace, J M

    2003-03-28

    Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies. PMID:12663908

  13. Elevated CO2 does not offset greater water stress predicted under climate change for native and exotic riparian plants

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Laura G.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Morgan, Jack A.; LeCain, Daniel R.

    2013-01-01

    In semiarid western North American riparian ecosystems, increased drought and lower streamflows under climate change may reduce plant growth and recruitment, and favor drought-tolerant exotic species over mesic native species. We tested whether elevated atmospheric CO2 might ameliorate these effects by improving plant water-use efficiency. We examined the effects of CO2 and water availability on seedlings of two native (Populus deltoids spp. monilifera, Salix exigua) and three exotic (Elaeagnus angustifolia, Tamarix spp., Ulmus pumila) western North American riparian species in a CO2-controlled glasshouse, using 1-m-deep pots with different water-table decline rates. Low water availability reduced seedling biomass by 70–97%, and hindered the native species more than the exotics. Elevated CO2 increased biomass by 15%, with similar effects on natives and exotics. Elevated CO2 increased intrinsic water-use efficiency (Δ13Cleaf), but did not increase biomass more in drier treatments than wetter treatments. The moderate positive effects of elevated CO2 on riparian seedlings are unlikely to counteract the large negative effects of increased aridity projected under climate change. Our results suggest that increased aridity will reduce riparian seedling growth despite elevated CO2, and will reduce growth more for native Salix and Populus than for drought-tolerant exotic species.

  14. Elevated CO2 does not offset greater water stress predicted under climate change for native and exotic riparian plants

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Laura G.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Morgan, Jack A.; LeCain, Daniel R.

    2013-01-01

    * In semiarid western North American riparian ecosystems, increased drought and lower streamflows under climate change may reduce plant growth and recruitment, and favor drought-tolerant exotic species over mesic native species. We tested whether elevated atmospheric CO2 might ameliorate these effects by improving plant water-use efficiency. * We examined the effects of CO2 and water availability on seedlings of two native (Populus deltoides spp. monilifera, Salix exigua) and three exotic (Elaeagnus angustifolia, Tamarix spp., Ulmus pumila) western North American riparian species in a CO2-controlled glasshouse, using 1-m-deep pots with different water-table decline rates. * Low water availability reduced seedling biomass by 70–97%, and hindered the native species more than the exotics. Elevated CO2 increased biomass by 15%, with similar effects on natives and exotics. Elevated CO2 increased intrinsic water-use efficiency (Δ13Cleaf), but did not increase biomass more in drier treatments than wetter treatments. * The moderate positive effects of elevated CO2 on riparian seedlings are unlikely to counteract the large negative effects of increased aridity projected under climate change. Our results suggest that increased aridity will reduce riparian seedling growth despite elevated CO2, and will reduce growth more for native Salix and Populus than for drought-tolerant exotic species.

  15. Cuba confronts climate change.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions. PMID:26027581

  16. What Is Climate Change?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beswick, Adele

    2007-01-01

    Weather consists of those meteorological events, such as rain, wind and sunshine, which can change day-by-day or even hour-by-hour. Climate is the average of all these events, taken over a period of time. The climate varies over different parts of the world. Climate is usually defined as the average of the weather over a 30-year period. It is when…

  17. Climate change and skin.

    PubMed

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many dermatoses. PMID:23407083

  18. [Climate change and health].

    PubMed

    Martens, Pim

    2009-01-01

    Despite the targets for greenhouse gas emissions agreed in Kyoto under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - again to be discussed in Copenhagen in December - climate change will still have serious effects on public health. The health effects of climate change will be noticeable also in the short run. Diseases which are transmitted by arthropod vectors will spread to more areas of the world than where they are present now. In addition, we will have to deal with allergies, deaths due to heat waves, diarrhoea and malnutrition. For this reason, every action is needed now in order to minimise the adverse effects on health. PMID:20025787

  19. Climate Change: An Activity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Garry

    1995-01-01

    Presents a segment of the Geoscience Education booklet, Climate Change, that contains information and activities that enable students to gain a better appreciation of the possible effects human activity has on the Earth's climate. Describes the Terrace Temperatures activity that leads students through an investigation using foraminifera data to…

  20. Climate Change Made Simple

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shallcross, Dudley E.; Harrison, Tim G.

    2007-01-01

    The newly revised specifications for GCSE science involve greater consideration of climate change. This topic appears in either the chemistry or biology section, depending on the examination board, and is a good example of "How Science Works." It is therefore timely that students are given an opportunity to conduct some simple climate modelling.…

  1. Climate Change: An Activity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Garry

    1995-01-01

    Presents a segment of the Geoscience Education booklet, Climate Change, that contains information and activities that enable students to gain a better appreciation of the possible effects human activity has on the Earth's climate. Describes the Terrace Temperatures activity that leads students through an investigation using foraminifera data to

  2. Plant life in cold climates.

    PubMed

    Körner, C; Larcher, W

    1988-01-01

    Structural and functional features of plants from cold regions such as high mountain and tundra environments are characterized. Cold climates are not necessarily cold for plants at all times and influences of plant-growth form on canopy climate are substantial. Extreme low temperatures can cause temporal cessation of metabolic processes or partial tissue losses, but rarely represent an existential problem for plants native to cold regions. Low temperatures induce drastic changes in plant physiognomy and leaf anatomy, but dry matter allocation to the different plant compartments does not show a uniform trend. This suggests that generalizations of optimization and adaptation theories are not appropriate in this respect and that the functional importance of carbohydrate budgets is commonly over-estimated. Inconsistent with widespread beliefs, photosynthetic capacity in plants from cold regions is not essentially different from that in temperate regions, when comparable life forms are considered. Prevailing leaf temperatures exert minor limitations to seasonal photosynthetic carbon gain. Low temperatures come into play primarily in two ways: indirectly, via the length of the growing season and perhaps mineral nutrient availability, and directly, through influences on the growth process per se. Inherited slow or temporally restricted growth resembles an evolutionary response to long-term expectations of low resource availability. Within these genetic constraints the mitotic rate seems to be an essential point of action where low temperature determines the growth of an individual under respective local climates. Evidence is provided to support this view of an overruling significance of developmental processes in plant performance under cold conditions. PMID:3270208

  3. Climate change and plant community composition in national parks of the southwestern US: forecasting regional, long-term effects to meet management needs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Webb, Robert H.; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Reiser, M. Hildegard; Gallo, Kirsten

    2014-01-01

    The National Park Service (NPS) faces tremendous management challenges in the future as climates alter the abundance and distribution of plant species. These challenges will be especially daunting in the southwestern U.S., where large increases in aridity are forecasted. The expected reduction in water availability will negatively affect plant growth and may result in shifts of plant community composition. Synthesis of climate and plant vital sign data from National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) networks is essential to provide park managers with important insights into contemporary climate responses and a sound basis to forecast likely future changes at species, community, and ecosystem scales. We describe a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NPS in which we have conducted regional cross-site assessments across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts to understand plant species responses to past climate and forecast future plant community composition. We also determined whether a widely-implemented vegetation monitoring protocol in these deserts is suitable to track long-term vegetation changes caused by climate and other factors. Our results from these analyses are intended to help natural resource managers identify and prepare for changes in plant cover and community composition and evaluate the efficacy of current monitoring programs.

  4. Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newton, S.

    2009-12-01

    Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

  5. Global Climatic Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  6. Climate Change: Basic Information

    MedlinePlus

    ... and ongoing rise in global average temperature near Earth's surface. It is caused mostly by increasing concentrations ... decades or longer. Climate change is happening Our Earth is warming. Earth's average temperature has risen by ...

  7. Global climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases.

  8. Climate change and inuits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    The Inuit Circumpolar Conference will seek a declaration from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights that emissions of greenhouse gases, which the conference says, are destroying the Inuit way of life, are a violation of human rights, conference chair Sheila Watt-Cloutier announced on 15 December.Her announcement comes shortly after the mid-November release of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, a scientific study by an international team of 300 scientists. That assessment noted, “The Arctic is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on Earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have already begun. Changes in Arctic climate will also affect the rest of the world through increased global warming and rising sea levels.”

  9. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to CO{sub 2} and climate change. Final technical report, September 1, 1992--August 31, 1996

    SciTech Connect

    Reynolds, J.F.

    1998-04-10

    Objectives can be divided into those for plant modeling and those for ecosystem modeling and experimental work in support of both. The author worked in a variety of ecosystem types, including pine, arctic, desert, and grasslands. Plant modeling objectives are: (1) to construct generic models of leaf, canopy, and whole-plant response to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change; (2) to validate predictions of whole-plant response against various field studies of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change; (3) to use these models to test specific hypotheses and to make predictions about primary, secondary and tertiary effects of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change on individual plants for conditions and time frames beyond those used to calibrate the model; and (4) to provide information to higher-level models, such as community models and ecosystem models. Ecosystem level modeling objectives are: (1) to incorporate models of plant responses to elevated CO{sub 2} into a generic ecosystem model in order to predict the direct and indirect effects of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change on ecosystems; (2) to validate model predictions of total system-level response (including decomposition) against various ecosystem field studies of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change; (3) to use the ecosystem model to test specific hypotheses and to make predictions about primary, secondary and tertiary effects of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change on ecosystems for conditions and time frames beyond those used to calibrate the model; and (4) to use the ecosystem model to study effects of change in CO{sub 2} and climate at regional and global scales. Occasionally the author conducted some experimental work that was deemed important to the development of the models. This work was mainly physiological work that could be performed in the Duke University Phytotron, using existing facilities.

  10. Rapid climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Morantine, M.C.

    1995-12-31

    Interactions between insolation changes due to orbital parameter variations, carbon dioxide concentration variations, the rate of deep water formation in the North Atlantic and the evolution of the northern hemisphere ice sheets during the most recent glacial cycle will be investigated. In order to investigate this period, a climate model is being developed to evaluate the physical mechanisms thought to be most significant during this period. The description of the model sub-components will be presented. The more one knows about the interactions between the sub-components of the climate system during periods of documented rapid climate change, the better equipped one will be to make rational decisions on issues related to impacts on the environment. This will be an effort to gauge the feedback processes thought to be instrumental in rapid climate shifts documented in the past, and their potential to influence the current climate. 53 refs.

  11. Global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    1999-01-01

    Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by “band jumps” between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. PMID:10468545

  12. Global climate change.

    PubMed

    Alley, R B; Lynch-Stieglitz, J; Severinghaus, J P

    1999-08-31

    Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by "band jumps" between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. PMID:10468545

  13. Global climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

    1989-04-01

    This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

  14. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  15. Observed climate change hotspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, M.; Palazzi, E.; Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A.

    2015-05-01

    We quantify climate change hotspots from observations, taking into account the differences in precipitation and temperature statistics (mean, variability, and extremes) between 1981-2010 and 1951-1980. Areas in the Amazon, the Sahel, tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and central eastern Asia emerge as primary observed hotspots. The main contributing factors are the global increase in mean temperatures, the intensification of extreme hot-season occurrence in low-latitude regions and the decrease of precipitation over central Africa. Temperature and precipitation variability have been substantially stable over the past decades, with only a few areas showing significant changes against the background climate variability. The regions identified from the observations are remarkably similar to those defined from projections of global climate models under a "business-as-usual" scenario, indicating that climate change hotspots are robust and persistent over time. These results provide a useful background to develop global policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation priorities over near-time horizons.

  16. Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulter, B.; MacBean, N.; Hartley, A.; Khlystova, I.; Arino, O.; Betts, R.; Bontemps, S.; Boettcher, M.; Brockmann, C.; Defourny, P.; Hagemann, S.; Herold, M.; Kirches, G.; Lamarche, C.; Lederer, D.; Ottlé, C.; Peters, M.; Peylin, P.

    2015-07-01

    Global land cover is a key variable in the earth system with feedbacks on climate, biodiversity and natural resources. However, global land cover data sets presently fall short of user needs in providing detailed spatial and thematic information that is consistently mapped over time and easily transferable to the requirements of earth system models. In 2009, the European Space Agency launched the Climate Change Initiative (CCI), with land cover (LC_CCI) as 1 of 13 essential climate variables targeted for research development. The LC_CCI was implemented in three phases: first responding to a survey of user needs; developing a global, moderate-resolution land cover data set for three time periods, or epochs (2000, 2005, and 2010); and the last phase resulting in a user tool for converting land cover to plant functional type equivalents. Here we present the results of the LC_CCI project with a focus on the mapping approach used to convert the United Nations Land Cover Classification System to plant functional types (PFTs). The translation was performed as part of consultative process among map producers and users, and resulted in an open-source conversion tool. A comparison with existing PFT maps used by three earth system modeling teams shows significant differences between the LC_CCI PFT data set and those currently used in earth system models with likely consequences for modeling terrestrial biogeochemistry and land-atmosphere interactions. The main difference between the new LC_CCI product and PFT data sets used currently by three different dynamic global vegetation modeling teams is a reduction in high-latitude grassland cover, a reduction in tropical tree cover and an expansion in temperate forest cover in Europe. The LC_CCI tool is flexible for users to modify land cover to PFT conversions and will evolve as phase 2 of the European Space Agency CCI program continues.

  17. Plant functional type classification for Earth System Models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulter, B.; MacBean, N.; Hartley, A.; Khlystova, I.; Arino, O.; Betts, R.; Bontemps, S.; Boettcher, M.; Brockmann, C.; Defourny, P.; Hagemann, S.; Herold, M.; Kirches, G.; Lamarche, C.; Lederer, D.; Ottlé, C.; Peters, M.; Peylin, P.

    2015-01-01

    Global land cover is a key variable in the earth system with feedbacks on climate, biodiversity and natural resources. However, global land-cover datasets presently fall short of user needs in providing detailed spatial and thematic information that is consistently mapped over time and easily transferable to the requirements of earth system models. In 2009, the European Space Agency launched the Climate Change Initiative (CCI), with land cover (LC_CCI) as one of thirteen Essential Climate Variables targeted for research development. The LC_CCI was implemented in three phases, first responding to a survey of user needs, then developing a global, moderate resolution, land-cover dataset for three time periods, or epochs, 2000, 2005, and 2010, and the last phase resulting in a user-tool for converting land cover to plant functional type equivalents. Here we present the results of the LC_CCI project with a focus on the mapping approach used to convert the United Nations Land Cover Classification System to plant functional types (PFT). The translation was performed as part of consultative process among map producers and users and resulted in an open-source conversion tool. A comparison with existing PFT maps used by three-earth system modeling teams shows significant differences between the LC_CCI PFT dataset and those currently used in earth system models with likely consequences for modeling terrestrial biogeochemistry and land-atmosphere interactions. The LC_CCI tool is flexible for users to modify land cover to PFT conversions and will evolve as Phase 2 of the European Space Agency CCI program continues.

  18. Poverty and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  19. Current Climate Variability & Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and climate change. The next section guides students through the exploration of temporal changes in global temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Students discover that there has been global warming over the past several decades, and the subsequent section allows them to consider solar radiation and greenhouse gases as possible causes of this warming. Students then zoom in on different latitudinal zones to examine changes in temperature for each zone and hypothesize about why one zone may have warmed more than others. The final section, prior to the answering of the essential questions, is an examination of the following effects of the current change in temperatures: loss of sea ice; rise of sea level; loss of permafrost loss; and moistening of the atmosphere. The lab addresses 14 climate-literacy concepts and all seven climate-literacy principles through data and images that are mainly NASA products. It focuses on the satellite era of climate data; therefore, 1979 is the typical starting year for most datasets used by students. Additionally, all time-series analysis end with the latest year with full-year data availability; thus, the climate variability and trends truly are 'current.'

  20. Avoiding dangerous climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Wolfgang Cramer; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; Tom Wigley; Gary Yohe

    2006-02-15

    In 2005 the UK Government hosted the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference to take an in-depth look at the scientific issues associated with climate change. This volume presents the most recent findings from the leading international scientists that attended the conference. The topics addressed include critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, socioeconomic costs and benefits of emissions pathways, and technological options for meeting different stabilisation levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Contents are: Foreword from Prime Minister Tony Blair; Introduction from Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC; followed by 41 papers arranged in seven sections entitled: Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds; General Perspectives on Dangerous Impacts; Key Vulnerabilities for Ecosystems and Biodiversity; Socio-Economic Effects; Regional Perspectives; Emission Pathways; and Technological Options. Four papers have been abstracted separately for the Coal Abstracts database.

  1. Impact of global climate change on ecosystem-level interactions among sympatric plants from all three photosynthetic pathways. Terminal report

    SciTech Connect

    Nobel, P.S.

    1997-12-17

    The proposed research will determine biochemical and physiological responses to variations in environmental factors for plants of all three photosynthetic pathways under competitive situations in the field. These responses will be used to predict the effects of global climatic change on an ecosystem in the northwestern Sonoran Desert where the C{sub 3} subshrub Encelia farinosa, the C{sub 4} bunchgrass Hilaria rigida, and the CAM succulent Agave deserti are co-dominants. These perennials are relatively short with overlapping shallow roots facilitating the experimental measurements as well as leading to competition for soil water. Net CO{sub 2} uptake over 24-h periods measured in the laboratory will be analyzed using an environmental productivity index (EPI) that can incorporate simultaneous effects of soil water, air temperature, and light. Based on EPI, net CO{sub 2} uptake and hence plant productivity will be predicted for the three species in the field under various treatments. Activity of the two CO{sub 2} fixation enzymes, Rubisco and PEPCase, will be determined for these various environmental conditions; also, partitioning of carbon to various organs will be measured based on {sup 14}CO{sub 2} labeling and dry weight analysis. Thus, enzymatic and partitioning controls on competition among sympatric model plants representing all three photosynthetic pathways will be investigated.

  2. Woody plant population dynamics in response to climate changes from 1984 to 2006 in Sahel (Gourma, Mali)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiernaux, Pierre; Diarra, Lassine; Trichon, Valérie; Mougin, Eric; Soumaguel, Nogmana; Baup, Frédéric

    2009-08-01

    SummaryThe patterns of the changes in woody plant population densities, size and species composition is documented and discussed for 24 rangeland sites monitored from 1984 to 2006 in Gourma (Mali). The sites are sampled along the North-South bioclimatic gradient on each of the main soils and levels of grazing intensity. Site woody plant populations range from extremely sparse on shallow soils, to scattered on sandy soils, to open forest in temporarily flooded clayed soils, and to narrow thickets on hard pans. Three different methods contributed to assess and monitor woody plant density and canopy cover. In the short term woody populations were struck by the 1983-1984 droughts irrespective of their edaphic situation and location along the bioclimatic gradient. Drought induced mortality was not more severe under drier climate within the Sahel gradient but occurred sooner after drought in shallow soils, and with a lag of a year or two on flooded clay soils. No evidences were found of higher mortality rates in stands with history of intense grazing. Although rainfall remained below average for a decade after the drought, active recruitment of woody plants occurred in all sites starting as soon as 1985. Recruitment proceeded by successive cohorts, often with short-living perennial undershrubs and pioneer shrubs settling first. Acacia species were among the first to settle or re-establish, especially on the sites most intensively grazed. The release of competition due to drought induced mortality and to the reduction of herbaceous cover contributed to the success of the recruitment. The species composition change that resulted could first be interpreted as a shift toward a more arid tolerant flora, then some diversification occurred since the mid 1990s that could indicate a possible return to previous composition in the long term, confirming the resilience Sahel vegetation.

  3. Debating Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Malone, Elizabeth L.

    2009-11-01

    Debating Climate Change explores, both theoretically and empirically, how people argue about climate change and link to each other through various elements in their arguments. As science is a central issue in the debate, the arguments of scientists and the interpretations and responses of non-scientists are important aspects of the analysis. The book first assesses current thinking about the climate change debate and current participants in the debates surrounding the issue, as well as a brief history of various groups’ involvements. Chapters 2 and 3 distill and organize various ways of framing the climate change issue. Beginning in Chapter 4, a modified classical analysis of the elements carried in an argument is used to identify areas and degrees of disagreement and agreement. One hundred documents, drawn from a wide spectrum of sources, map the topic and debate space of the climate change issue. Five elements of each argument are distilled: the authority of the writer, the evidence presented, the formulation of the argument, the worldview presented, and the actions proposed. Then a social network analysis identifies elements of the arguments that point to potential agreements. Finally, the book suggests mechanisms by which participants in the debate can build more general agreements on elements of existing agreement.

  4. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  5. AMS and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kutschera, Walter

    2010-04-01

    This paper attempts to draw a connection between information that can be gained from measurements with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) and the study of climate change on earth. The power of AMS to help in this endeavor is demonstrated by many contributions to these proceedings. Just like in archaeology, we are entering a phase of an 'integrated approach' to understand the various components of climate change. Even though some basic understanding emerged, we are still largely in a situation of a phenomenological description of climate change. Collecting more data is therefore of paramount interest. Based on a recent suggestion of 'geo-engineering' to take out CO 2 from the atmosphere, this radical step will also be briefly discussed.

  6. Climate change matters.

    PubMed

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world. PMID:23665996

  7. [Effect of climatic changes on the phenology of plants and the presence of pollen in the air in Switzerland].

    PubMed

    Schneiter, D; Bernard, B; Defila, C; Gehrig, R

    2002-04-01

    The phenologic observations carried out in Switzerland since 1951 show a clear tendency to the earlier appearance of the spring phases of development of the vegetation during last decades. As these phases are strongly influenced by the temperature, these results reinforce the hypothesis according to which the climatic reheating in progress strongly influences the development of the vegetation. The flowering and the release of the pollen of the plants allergens are significant phenologic phases for human health. Modifications in their dates of manifestation lead to a displacement of the periods of allergic risk. The analysis of the aerobiologic data of the Swiss stations over one duration of more than 20 years showed that the species which flower in winter and in spring were subject to the influence of the soft winters of the years 1990 to 2000. In certain areas the pollen of birch, for example, is nowadays waited on average 3 weeks earlier than 20 years ago, whereas the pollen of ash appears with one month in advance. The phenologic and aeropalynologic studies thus prove sensitive witnesses of the climatic change in progress. This last intervenes like an indirect but significant component of human health, in particular when the field of the allergies is considered. PMID:12078417

  8. Climate-change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wagner, F.H.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Baldwin, C.K.; Mearns, L.O.

    2003-01-01

    In 1991, the United States Congress passed the Global Change Research Act directing the Executive Branch of government to assess the potential effects of predicted climate change and variability on the nation. This congressional action followed formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Program and World Meteorological Organization. Some 2,000 scientists from more than 150 nations contribute to the efforts of the IPCC. Under coordination of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the congressionally ordered national assessment has divided the country into 19 regions and five socio-economic sectors that cut across the regions: agriculture, coastal and marine systems, forests, human health, and water. Potential climate-change effects are being assessed in each region and sector, and those efforts collectively make up the national assessment. This document reports the assessment of potential climate-change effects on the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin (RMGB) region which encompasses parts of nine western states. The assessment began February 16-18, 1998 with a workshop in Salt Lake City co-convened by Frederic H. Wagner of Utah State University and Jill Baron of the U.S. Geological Survey Biological Resources Division (BRD). Invitations were sent to some 300 scientists and stakeholders representing 18 socio-economic sectors in nine statesa?|

  9. Anthropogenic climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Budyko, M.I.; Izreal, Yu.A.

    1991-01-01

    The climate modeling community would agree that the present generation of theoretical models cannot adequately answer important question about the climatic implications of increasing concentrations of CO[sub 2] and other greenhouse gases. Society, however, is presently deciding by its action, or inaction, the policies that will deal with the extent and results of our collective flatulence. In this situation, an engineering approach to estimating the developing pattern of anthropogenic climate change is appropriate. For example, Budyko has argued that, while scientists may have made great advances in modelling the flow around an airfoil, engineers make extensive use of empirical equations and measurements to design airplanes that fly. Budyko and Izreal have produced an encyclopedic treatise summarizing the results of Soviet researchers in applying empirical and semiempirical methods to estimating future climatic patterns, and some of their ensuring effects. These techniques consist mainly of statistical relationships derived from 1850-1950 network data and of patterns revealed by analysis of paleoclimatic data. An important part of the Soviet effort in anthropogenic climate-change studies is empirical techniques that represent independent verification of the results of theoretical climate models.

  10. In the right place at the right time: habitat representation in protected areas of South American Nothofagus-dominated plants after a dispersal constrained climate change scenario.

    PubMed

    Alarcón, Diego; Cavieres, Lohengrin A

    2015-01-01

    In order to assess the effects of climate change in temperate rainforest plants in southern South America in terms of habitat size, representation in protected areas, considering also if the expected impacts are similar for dominant trees and understory plant species, we used niche modeling constrained by species migration on 118 plant species, considering two groups of dominant trees and two groups of understory ferns. Representation in protected areas included Chilean national protected areas, private protected areas, and priority areas planned for future reserves, with two thresholds for minimum representation at the country level: 10% and 17%. With a 10% representation threshold, national protected areas currently represent only 50% of the assessed species. Private reserves are important since they increase up to 66% the species representation level. Besides, 97% of the evaluated species may achieve the minimum representation target only if the proposed priority areas were included. With the climate change scenario representation levels slightly increase to 53%, 69%, and 99%, respectively, to the categories previously mentioned. Thus, the current location of all the representation categories is useful for overcoming climate change by 2050. Climate change impacts on habitat size and representation of dominant trees in protected areas are not applicable to understory plants, highlighting the importance of assessing these effects with a larger number of species. Although climate change will modify the habitat size of plant species in South American temperate rainforests, it will have no significant impact in terms of the number of species adequately represented in Chile, where the implementation of the proposed reserves is vital to accomplish the present and future minimum representation. Our results also show the importance of using migration dispersal constraints to develop more realistic future habitat maps from climate change predictions. PMID:25786226

  11. In the Right Place at the Right Time: Habitat Representation in Protected Areas of South American Nothofagus-Dominated Plants after a Dispersal Constrained Climate Change Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Alarcón, Diego; Cavieres, Lohengrin A.

    2015-01-01

    In order to assess the effects of climate change in temperate rainforest plants in southern South America in terms of habitat size, representation in protected areas, considering also if the expected impacts are similar for dominant trees and understory plant species, we used niche modeling constrained by species migration on 118 plant species, considering two groups of dominant trees and two groups of understory ferns. Representation in protected areas included Chilean national protected areas, private protected areas, and priority areas planned for future reserves, with two thresholds for minimum representation at the country level: 10% and 17%. With a 10% representation threshold, national protected areas currently represent only 50% of the assessed species. Private reserves are important since they increase up to 66% the species representation level. Besides, 97% of the evaluated species may achieve the minimum representation target only if the proposed priority areas were included. With the climate change scenario representation levels slightly increase to 53%, 69%, and 99%, respectively, to the categories previously mentioned. Thus, the current location of all the representation categories is useful for overcoming climate change by 2050. Climate change impacts on habitat size and representation of dominant trees in protected areas are not applicable to understory plants, highlighting the importance of assessing these effects with a larger number of species. Although climate change will modify the habitat size of plant species in South American temperate rainforests, it will have no significant impact in terms of the number of species adequately represented in Chile, where the implementation of the proposed reserves is vital to accomplish the present and future minimum representation. Our results also show the importance of using migration dispersal constraints to develop more realistic future habitat maps from climate change predictions. PMID:25786226

  12. Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Z.; Jia, S. F.; Lv, A. F.; Yang, K. J.; Svensson, J.; Gao, Y. C.

    2015-10-01

    This paper advances understanding of the impacts of climate change on crops in China by moving from ex-post analysis to forecasting, and by demonstrating how the effects of climate change will affect the growth period and the planting boundaries of winter wheat. Using a multiple regression model based on agricultural meteorological observations and the IPCC AR5 GCMs simulations, we find that the sowing date of winter wheat in the base period, 2040s and 2070s, shows a gradually delayed trend from north to south and the growth period of winter wheat in China will be shortened under climate change. The simulation results also show that (i) the north planting boundaries of winter wheat in China will likely move northward and expand westward in the future, while the south planting boundary will rise and spread in south Hainan and Taiwan; and (ii) the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will have the largest increases in planting areas in 2040s and 2070s. Our simulation implies that Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are more sensitive to climate change than other regions in China and priority should be given to design adaptation strategies for winter wheat planting for these provinces.

  13. Climate change and amphibians

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Corn, P.S.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  14. Plant-soil feedbacks and the reversal of desertification with climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Our objective was to provide a conceptual framework for perennial grass recovery in a series of wet years, which includes both plant-soil feedbacks that increase available water to grasses and effects of precipitation on a sequence of recovery-related processes. We tested hypotheses based on this fr...

  15. Confronting Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roach, Ronald

    2009-01-01

    The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, an African-American think tank based in Washington, D.C., convenes a commission to focus on the disparate impact of climate change on minority communities and help involve historically Black institutions in clean energy projects. Launched formally in July 2008, the Commission to Engage

  16. Emissions versus climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change is likely to offset some of the improvements in air quality expected from reductions in pollutant emissions. A comprehensive analysis of future air quality over North America suggests that, on balance, the air will still be cleaner in coming decades.

  17. Confronting Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roach, Ronald

    2009-01-01

    The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, an African-American think tank based in Washington, D.C., convenes a commission to focus on the disparate impact of climate change on minority communities and help involve historically Black institutions in clean energy projects. Launched formally in July 2008, the Commission to Engage…

  18. Climate Change? When? Where?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, Helen

    2009-01-01

    Regional Australian students were surveyed to explore their understanding and knowledge of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and climate change. Results were compared with a parallel study undertaken in 1991 in a regional UK city. The comparison was conducted to investigate whether more awareness and understanding of these issues is…

  19. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  20. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding

  1. Climate Change: A Controlled Experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Wullschleger, Stan D; Strahl, Maya

    2010-01-01

    Researchers are altering temperature, carbon dioxide and precipitation levels across plots of forests, grasses and crops to see how plant life responds. Warmer temperatures and higher CO{sub 2} concentrations generally result in more leaf growth or crop yield, but these factors can also raise insect infestation and weaken plants ability to ward off pests and disease. Future field experiments that can manipulate all three conditions at once will lead to better models of how long-term climate changes will affect ecosystems worldwide.

  2. Development of Flexi-Burn™ CFB Power Plant to Meet the Challenge of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hackt, Horst; Fant, Zhen; Seltzert, Andrew; Hotta, Arto; Erikssoni, Timo; Sippu, Ossi

    Carbon-dioxide capture and storage (CCS) offers the potential for major reductions in carbon- dioxide emissions of fossil fuel-based power generation in the fairly short term, and oxyfuel combustion is one of the identified CCS technology options. Foster Wheeler (FW) is working on reduction of carbon-dioxide with its integrated Flexi-Burn™ CFB technology. The proven high efficiency circulating fluidized-bed (CFB) technology, when coupled with air separation units and carbon purification units, offers a solution for carbon dioxide reduction both in re-powering and in greenfield power plants. CFB technology has the advantages over pulverized coal technology of a more uniform furnace heat flux, increased fuel flexibility and offers the opportunity to further reduce carbon dioxide emissions by co-firing coal with bio-fuels. Development and design of an integrated Flexi-Bum™ CFB steam generator and balance of plant system was conducted for both air mode and oxyfuel mode. Through proper configuration and design, the same steam generator can be switched from air mode to oxyfuel mode without the need for unit shutdown for modifications. The Flexi-Burn™ CFB system incorporates features to maximize plant efficiency and power output when operating in the oxy-firing mode through firing more fuel in the same boiler.

  3. USDA Southwest climate hub for climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made up...

  4. Climate change and water use partitioning by different plant functional groups in a grassland on the Tibetan Plateau.

    PubMed

    Hu, Jia; Hopping, Kelly A; Bump, Joseph K; Kang, Sichang; Klein, Julia A

    2013-01-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is predicted to experience increases in air temperature, increases in snowfall, and decreases in monsoon rains; however, there is currently a paucity of data that examine the ecological responses to such climate changes. In this study, we examined the effects of increased air temperature and snowfall on: 1) water use partitioning by different plant functional groups, and 2) ecosystem CO2 fluxes throughout the growing season. At the individual plant scale, we used stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) to partition water use between shallow- and deep-rooted species. Prior to the arrival of summer precipitation (typically mid-July), snowmelt was the main water source in the soils. During this time, shallow and deep-rooted species partitioned water use by accessing water from shallow and deep soils, respectively. However, once the monsoon rains arrived, all plants used rainwater from the upper soils as the main water source. Snow addition did not result in increased snowmelt use throughout the growing season; instead, snowmelt water was pushed down into deeper soils when the rains arrived. At the larger plot scale, CO2 flux measurements demonstrated that rain was the main driver for net ecosystem productivity (NEP). NEP rates were low during June and July and reached a maximum during the monsoon season in August. Warming decreased NEP through a reduction in gross primary productivity (GPP), and snow additions did not mitigate the negative effects of warming by increasing NEP or GPP. Both the isotope and CO2 flux results suggest that rain drives productivity in the Nam Tso region on the TP. This also suggests that the effects of warming-induced drought on the TP may not be mitigated by increased snowfall. Further decreases in summer monsoon rains may affect ecosystem productivity, with large implications for livestock-based livelihoods. PMID:24069425

  5. Climate Change and Water Use Partitioning by Different Plant Functional Groups in a Grassland on the Tibetan Plateau

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Jia; Hopping, Kelly A.; Bump, Joseph K.; Kang, Sichang; Klein, Julia A.

    2013-01-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is predicted to experience increases in air temperature, increases in snowfall, and decreases in monsoon rains; however, there is currently a paucity of data that examine the ecological responses to such climate changes. In this study, we examined the effects of increased air temperature and snowfall on: 1) water use partitioning by different plant functional groups, and 2) ecosystem CO2 fluxes throughout the growing season. At the individual plant scale, we used stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) to partition water use between shallow- and deep-rooted species. Prior to the arrival of summer precipitation (typically mid-July), snowmelt was the main water source in the soils. During this time, shallow and deep-rooted species partitioned water use by accessing water from shallow and deep soils, respectively. However, once the monsoon rains arrived, all plants used rainwater from the upper soils as the main water source. Snow addition did not result in increased snowmelt use throughout the growing season; instead, snowmelt water was pushed down into deeper soils when the rains arrived. At the larger plot scale, CO2 flux measurements demonstrated that rain was the main driver for net ecosystem productivity (NEP). NEP rates were low during June and July and reached a maximum during the monsoon season in August. Warming decreased NEP through a reduction in gross primary productivity (GPP), and snow additions did not mitigate the negative effects of warming by increasing NEP or GPP. Both the isotope and CO2 flux results suggest that rain drives productivity in the Nam Tso region on the TP. This also suggests that the effects of warming-induced drought on the TP may not be mitigated by increased snowfall. Further decreases in summer monsoon rains may affect ecosystem productivity, with large implications for livestock-based livelihoods. PMID:24069425

  6. Ecosystem Carbon Stock Influenced by Plantation Practice: Implications for Planting Forests as a Measure of Climate Change Mitigation

    PubMed Central

    Liao, Chengzhang; Luo, Yiqi; Fang, Changming; Li, Bo

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C). We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests). Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha−1 in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age (<25 years vs. ≥25 years), stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen), tree species origin (native vs. exotic) of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation) and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt), and study regions (tropic vs. temperate). The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation. PMID:20523733

  7. Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.

    PubMed

    Liao, Chengzhang; Luo, Yiqi; Fang, Changming; Li, Bo

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C). We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests). Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1) in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age (< 25 years vs. > or = 25 years), stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen), tree species origin (native vs. exotic) of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation) and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt), and study regions (tropic vs. temperate). The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation. PMID:20523733

  8. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review.

    PubMed

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-11-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  9. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    PubMed Central

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  10. Anticipating the spatio-temporal response of plant diversity and vegetation structure to climate and land use change in a protected area

    PubMed Central

    Boulangeat, Isabelle; Georges, Damien; Dentant, Cédric; Bonet, Richard; Van Es, Jérémie; Abdulhak, Sylvain; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2014-01-01

    Vegetation is a key driver of ecosystem functioning (e.g. productivity and stability) and of the maintenance of biodiversity (e.g. creating habitats for other species groups). While vegetation sensitivity to climate change has been widely investgated, its spatio-temporally response to the dual efects of land management and climate change has been ignored at landscape scale. Here we use a dynamic vegetation model called FATE-HD, which describes the dominant vegetation dynamics and associated functional diversity, in order to anticipate vegetation response to climate and land-use changes in both short and long-term perspectives. Using three contrasted management scenarios for the Ecrins National Park (French Alps) developed in collaboration with the park managers, and one regional climate change scenario, we tracked the dynamics of vegetation structure (forest expansion) and functional diversity over 100 years of climate change and a further 400 additional years of stabilization. As expected, we observed a slow upward shift in forest cover distribution, which appears to be severely impacted by pasture management (i.e. maintenance or abandonment). The tme lag before observing changes in vegetation cover was the result of demographic and seed dispersal processes. However, plant diversity response to environmental changes was rapid. Afer land abandonment, local diversity increased and spatial turnover was reduced, whereas local diversity decreased following land use intensification. Interestingly, in the long term, as both climate and management scenarios interacted, the regional diversity declined. Our innovative spatio-temporally explicit framework demonstrates that the vegetation may have contrasting responses to changes in the short and the long term. Moreover, climate and land-abandonment interact extensively leading to a decrease in both regional diversity and turnover in the long term. Based on our simulations we therefore suggest a continuing moderate intensity pasturing to maintain high levels of plant diversity in this system. PMID:25722538

  11. Global climate change and US agriculture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  12. Hantaviruses and climate change.

    PubMed

    Klempa, B

    2009-06-01

    Most hantaviruses are rodent-borne emerging viruses. They cause two significant human diseases, haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Asia and Europe, and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome in the Americas. Very recently, several novel hantaviruses with unknown pathogenic potential have been identified in Africa and in a variety of insectivores (shrews and a mole). Because there is very limited information available on the possible impact of climate change on all of these highly dangerous pathogens, it is timely to review this aspect of their epidemiology. It can reasonably be concluded that climate change should influence hantaviruses through impacts on the hantavirus reservoir host populations. We can anticipate changes in the size and frequency of hantavirus outbreaks, the spectrum of hantavirus species and geographical distribution (mediated by changes in population densities), and species composition and geographical distribution of their reservoir hosts. The early effects of global warming have already been observed in different geographical areas of Europe. Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities. On the other hand, warm winters in Scandinavia have led to a decline in vole populations as a result of the missing protective snow cover. Additional effects can be caused by increased intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, or by changes in human behaviour leading to higher risk of human virus exposure. Regardless of the extent of climate change, it is difficult to predict the impact on hantavirus survival, emergence and epidemiology. Nevertheless, hantaviruses will undoubtedly remain a significant public health threat for several decades to come. PMID:19604276

  13. Weather it's Climate Change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bostrom, A.; Lashof, D.

    2004-12-01

    For almost two decades both national polls and in-depth studies of global warming perceptions have shown that people commonly conflate weather and global climate change. Not only are current weather events such as anecdotal heat waves, droughts or cold spells treated as evidence for or against global warming, but weather changes such as warmer weather and increased storm intensity and frequency are the consequences most likely to come to mind. Distinguishing weather from climate remains a challenge for many. This weather 'framing' of global warming may inhibit behavioral and policy change in several ways. Weather is understood as natural, on an immense scale that makes controlling it difficult to conceive. Further, these attributes contribute to perceptions that global warming, like weather, is uncontrollable. This talk presents an analysis of data from public opinion polls, focus groups, and cognitive studies regarding people's mental models of and 'frames' for global warming and climate change, and the role weather plays in these. This research suggests that priming people with a model of global warming as being caused by a "thickening blanket of carbon dioxide" that "traps heat" in the atmosphere solves some of these communications problems and makes it more likely that people will support policies to address global warming.

  14. Climate change, environment and allergy.

    PubMed

    Behrendt, Heidrun; Ring, Johannes

    2012-01-01

    Climate change with global warming is a physicometeorological fact that, among other aspects, will also affect human health. Apart from cardiovascular and infectious diseases, allergies seem to be at the forefront of the sequelae of climate change. By increasing temperature and concomitant increased CO(2) concentration, plant growth is affected in various ways leading to prolonged pollination periods in the northern hemisphere, as well as to the appearance of neophytes with allergenic properties, e.g. Ambrosia artemisiifolia (ragweed), in Central Europe. Because of the effects of environmental pollutants, which do not only act as irritants to skin and mucous membranes, allergen carriers such as pollen can be altered in the atmosphere and release allergens leading to allergen-containing aerosols in the ambient air. Pollen has been shown not only to be an allergen carrier, but also to release highly active lipid mediators (pollen-associated lipid mediators), which have proinflammatory and immunomodulating effects enhancing the initiation of allergy. Through the effects of climate change in the future, plant growth may be influenced in a way that more, new and altered pollens are produced, which may affect humans. PMID:22433365

  15. Climate Change: Precipitation and Plant Nutrition Interactions on Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) Yield in North-Eastern Hungary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    László Phd, M., ,, Dr.

    2009-04-01

    It is widely well known that annual temperatures over Europe warm at a rate of between 0.1 0C decade-1 and 0.4 0C decade-1. And most of Europe gets wetter in the winter season between +1% and +4% decade-1. In summer there is a strong gradient of change between northern Europe (wetting of up to +2% decade-1) and southern Europe (drying of up to 5% decade-1). The droughts and the floods were experienced at Hungary in the early eighties as well as today. So among the natural catastrophes, drought and flooding caused by over-abundant rainfall cause the greatest problems in field potato production. The crop is demanding indicator plant of climate factors (temperature, rainfall) and soil nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and magnesium status. This publication gives the results achieved in the period from 1962 to 2001 of a long term small- plot fertilization experiment set up on acidic sandy brown forest soil at Nyírlugos in the Nyírség region in North-Eastern Hungary. Characteristics of the experiment soil were a pH (KCl) 4.5, humus 0.5%, CEC 5-10 mgeq 100g-1 in the ploughed layer. The topsoil was poor in all four macronutrient N, P, K and Mg. The mineral fertilization experiment involved 2 (genotypes: Gülbaba and Aranyalma) x 2 (ploughed depths: 20 and 40 cm) x 16 (fertilizations: N, P, K, Mg) = 64 treatments in 8 replications, giving a total of 512 plots. The gross and net plot sizes were 10x5=50 m2 and 35.5 m2. The experimental designe was split-split-plot. The N levels were 0, 50, 100, 150 kg ha-1 year-1 and the P, K, Mg levels were 48, 150, 30 kg ha-1 year-1 P2O5, K2O, MgO in the form of 25% calcium ammonium nitrate, 18% superphosphate, 40% potassium chloride, and powdered technological magnesium sulphate. The forecrop every second year was rye. The groundwater level was at a depth of 2-3 m. From the 64 treatments, eight replications, altogether 512- experimental plots with 7 treatments and their 16 combinations are summarised of experiment period from 1962 to 1979. The main conclusions were as follows: 1. The experiment years (1962-1963, 1964-1965, 1966-1967, 1968-1969, 1970-1971, 1972-1973, 1974-1975, 1976-1977, 1978-1979) were characterised by frequent extremes of climate. Seven years had an average rainfall, one year had an over rainfall and one year had a very dry by Hungarian traditional and RISSAC-HAS (Márton 2001b) new potato ecological standards. 2. The unfavorable effects of climate anomalies (drought, over-abundance of water in the topsoil) on the yield formation, yield quantity of potato depended decisively on the time of year when they were experienced and the period for which they lasted. 3. Precipitation deficiency (droughts) in the winter could not be counterbalanced by average rainfall during the vegetation period, and its effect on the yield was similar to that of summer drought. 4. Yield was influenced by rainfall to a greater extent than by 0-150 kg ha-1 nitrogen and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations. 5. Drought and over rainfall negative effects were decreased by increasing N- doses and its combinations of potassium, phosphorous and magnesium from 13 to 32%. 6. It was found the polynomial correlation between rainfall and yield could be observed in the case of N: Y'=380.18-2.95x+0.0056x2, n=72, R2=0.95, NP: Y'=387.19-3.04x+0.0059x2, n=72, R2=0.96, NK: Y'=381.65-2.95x+0.0056x2, n=72, R2=0.95, NPK: Y'=390.87-3.07x+0.0060x2, n=72, R2=0.96 and NPKMg: Y'=390.45-3.06x+0.0059x2, n=72, R2=0.96 nutrition systems. The optimum yields ranges between 17-20 t ha-1 at 280-330 mm of rainfall. Key words: climate change, rainfall, potato, N, NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg, yield Introduction: Climate change was recognized as a serious environmental issue. The build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the inertia in trends in emissions means that we can expect significant changes for at least the next few decades and probably for the future time. Annual temperatures over Europe warm at a rate of between 0.1 0C decade-1 and 0.4 0C decade-1. And most of Europe gets wetter in the winter season between +1% and +4% decade-1. In summer there is a strong gradient of change between northern Europe (wetting of up to +2% decade-1) and southern Europe (drying of up to 5% decade-1). The urgent need is to understand what might be involved in adapting to the new climates. And we must increasingly get the following question: how do we respond effectivelly to prevent damaging impacts and take advantage of new climatic opportunities. This question requires detailed in information regarding expected impacts and effectíve adaptive measures. Climate change at Hungary was initiated about of 1850 (Márton 2001b). Nowadays among the natural catastrophes, drought and flooding caused by over-abundant rainfall and cause the greatest problems in field crop production in this region (László et al. 2000a, Márton et al. 2000). The droughts and the floods were experienced in the early eighties as well as today have drawn renewed attention to the analysis of this problem (László 2001, Márton 2001a, Márton 2001c). Potatoes are one of the most important crops in the agricultural systems of many World countries but little research in the field of climate change impact assessment has been undertaken. Potatoes are sensitives to the prevailing weather conditions (precipitation) and, hence, it is important to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic climate change on their production. The crop is demanding indicator plant of soil nutrient status too. Has a particularly high requirement for supply of soil nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and magnesium (Láng 1973, Szemes és Kádár 1990, Kádár és Szemes 1994, Johnston 2000, Kádár et al. 2000, László 2000, László et al. 2000b, 2000c, Márton 2000a, 2000b). The tubers remove 1.5 times as much potassium as nitrogen and 4 or 5 times the amount of phophate. This paper describes climate change, mainly precipitation and N, NP, NK, NPK and NPKMg effects on potato yield on a acidic sandy brown forest soil at long term field experiment scale under North- Eastern Hungarian climate conditions at Nyírlugos from 1962 to 1979. Material and Method: Effects of climate changes, especially rainfall quantity and distribution on certain crop fertilization factors (N, P, K, Mg and potato yield) were studied in a long-term field experiment on acidic sandy brown forest soil at Nyírlugos in North- Eastern Hungary set up in 1962 and 2001. Ploughed layer of the experiment soil had a pH (KCl) 4.5, humus 0.5%, CEC 5-10 mgeq 100g-1. The topsoil was poor in all four macronutrient N, P, K and Mg. The mineral fertilization experiment involved 2 (Gülbaba and Aranyalma genotypes) x 2 (20 and 40 cm ploughed depths) x 16 (N, P, K, Mg fertilizations) = 64 treatments in 8 replications, giving a total of 512 plots. The gross and net plot sizes were 10x5=50 m2 and 35.5 m2. The experimental designe was split-split-plot. The N levels were 0, 50, 100, 150 kg ha-1 year-1 and the P, K, Mg levels were 48, 150, 30 kg ha-1 year-1 P2O5, K2O, MgO in the form of 25% calcium ammonium nitrate, 18% superphosphate, 40% potassium chloride, and powdered technological magnesium sulphate. The forecrop every second year was rye. The groundwater level was at a depth of 2-3 m. Ecological and experimental dates were estimated by Hungarian traditional, RISSAC-HAS (Márton 2001b) new potato standards and MANOVA. From the 64 treatments, eight replications, altogether 512- experimental plots with 7 treatments and their 16 combinations are summarised of experiment period from 1962 to 1979. Results and Discussion: The experiment years (1962-1963, 1964-1965, 1966-1967, 1968-1969, 1970-1971, 1972-1973, 1974-1975, 1976-1977, 1978-1979) were characterised by frequent extremes of climate. Seven years had an average rainfall, one year had an over rainfall and one year had a very dry. The unfavorable effects of climate anomalies (drought, over-abundance of water in the topsoil) on the yield formation, yield quantity of potato depended decisively on the time of year when they were experienced and the period for which they lasted. Droughts in the winter or summer half-year had much the same effect on yield. Precipitation deficiency in the winter could not be counterbalanced by average rainfall during the vegetation period, and its effect on the yield was similar to that of summer drought. It was also concluded that economic yields could not be achieved with poor N, P, K and Mg nutrient supply even with a normal quantity and distribution of rainfall. Yield was influenced by rainfall to a greater extent (Table 4) than by 0-150 kg ha-1 nitrogen and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations. Drought and over rainfall negative effects were decreased by increasing N- doses with combinations of potassium, phosphorous and magnesium from 13 to 32% (Table 5). And with the help of regression analysis it was found the polynomial correlation between rainfall and yield could be observed in the case of N: Y'=380.18-2.95x+0.0056x2, n=72, R2=0.95, NP: Y'=387.19-3.04x+0.0059x2, n=72, R2=0.96, NK: Y'=381.65-2.95x+0.0056x2, n=72, R2=0.95, NPK: Y'=390.87-3.07x+0.0060x2, n=72, R2=0.96 and NPKMg: Y'=390.45-3.06x+0.0059x2, n=72, R2=0.96 nutrition systems. The optimum yields ranges between 17-20 t ha-1 at 280-330 mm of rainfall. Acknowledgement: This study were supported by Research Institute for Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (RISSAC-HAS), Budapest. References Johnston, A. E., 2000. Some aspects of nitrogen use efficiency in arable agriculture. K. Scogs-o. Lantbr. Akad. Tidskr. 139, 8. Kádár, I., Márton, L., Horváth, S., 2000. Mineral fertilisation of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) on calcareous chernozem soil. Plant Production. 49, 291-306. Kádár, I., Szemes, I., 1994. A nyírlugosi tartamkísérlet 30 éve. MTA TAKI, Budapest, 248 p. Láng, I., 1973. Műtrágyázási tartamkísérletek homoktalajon. MTA Doktori értekezés. MTA TMB. Budapest László, M., 2000. Nutrition of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) on Hungary on a chernozem soil. Acta Agronomica Óváriensis. 42, 81-93. László, M., 2001. Year and N- fertilizer effect on winter rye (Secale cereale L.) yield in a long term field experiment. XLIII. Georgikon Days. University of Veszprém. Keszthely László, M., Imre, K., Jose, E. M., 2000a. Effects of Crotalaria juncea L. and Crotalaria spectabilis ROTH. on soil fertility and soil conservation in Hungary. Acta Agronomica Óváriensis. In press László, M., Silva, J. B. C., José, A. B., 2000b. Ecological friendly dragée technics on different crops and vegetables seeds. Acta Agronomica Óváriensis. In press László, M., Silva, J. B. C., Jose, A. B., 2000c. Ecological friendly dragée technics to sustainable precision agriculture. Fertilization in the Third Millenium. CASISCF. Beijing Márton, L., 2000a. Effects of NPK fertilizers on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) yield. Doctoral Ph.D Dissertation. University of Veszprém, Keszthely. Márton, L., 2000b. Effects of NPK fertilizers on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) yield. Doctoral Ph.D Thesis. University of Veszprém, Keszthely. Márton, L., 2001a. Climate change and N, P, K, Mg fertilization effect analysis at Tisza-river basin in a long term field experiment. Szent István University, Gödöllő, 21. p. Márton, L., 2001b. Climate change effets on rye (Secale cereale L.) yield. Agrochemistry and Soil Science. In press Márton, L., 2001c. Climate change and fertilization effect analysis at the Tisza- river basin on rye yield. SZINET. University of Szent István. Gödöllő. Márton, L., Kádár, I., Estáquio, M. J., 2000. Effects of Crotalaria juncea L. and Crotalaria spectabilis ROTH on soil fertility and soil conservation. ESSC. Man and Soil at the Third Millennium. Abstract Book. 195. Valencia Szemes, I., Kádár, I., 1990. Műtrágyázás és meszezés tartamhatásának vizsgálata savanyú homoktalajon. Növénytermelés. 39: 147-155.

  16. Perception of climate change.

    PubMed

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-09-11

    "Climate dice," describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change. PMID:22869707

  17. Perception of climate change.

    TOXLINE Toxicology Bibliographic Information

    Hansen J; Sato M; Ruedy R

    2012-09-11

    "Climate dice," describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  18. Climate change and disaster management.

    PubMed

    O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

    2006-03-01

    Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. PMID:16512862

  19. A New GLORIA Target Region in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA; Alpine Plant Monitoring For Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dennis, A.; Millar, C. I.; Murrell, K. E.

    2004-12-01

    The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) is an international research project with the goal to assess climate change impacts on vegetation in alpine environments worldwide. Standardized protocols direct selection of each node in the network, called a target region, which consists of a set of four geographically proximal mountain summits at elevations extending from treeline to the nival zone. For each summit, GLORIA specifies a rigorous mapping and sampling design for data collection, with re-measurement intervals of five years. Whereas target regions have been installed in six continents, prior to 2004 none was completed in North America. In cooperation with the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT), three target regions were completed by September 2004, one in the Sierra Nevada, California, one in the White Mountains, California, and one in Glacier National Park, Montana. The SIERRA NEVADA (GLORIA code: SND) target region lies along the Sierra Nevada crest in the Yosemite National Park/Mono Lake region. The four summits well represent the GLORIA design standards, being little visited by climbers, outside domestic grazing allotments, relatively rounded in shape, situated within one climate region, related substrate types (metamorphic), and extending from treeline to the highest elevation zones in the area. The four summits include the subordinate peak of Mt Dunderberg (3744m), two lesser peaks of Mt Dunderberg (3570m and 3322m) and a summit along the Yosemite National Park boundary region south of Mt Conness (3425m). Preliminary data indicate that numbers of vascular plant species, from lowest to highest summit, were 40, 36, 12, 22 (total for SN, 67). Only 1 species (Elymus elymoides ssp. californicus) occurred on all four summits; 8 species occurred on three summits; no exotic species was detected. The most distant summit, also most distinct in substrate, had the largest number of unique species. The genus Carex (Cyperaceae) had the most species represented (five). Only one tree species (Pinus albicaulis) occurred within the summit areas. Data analysis of the baseline measurements has just begun; the standardized GLORIA protocols will enable direct comparisons among summits within the target region, across target regions in California, among the three target regions in North America, and with established GLORIA regions in other continents.

  20. Effects of Winter Climate Change on Plant and Soil Ecology of Cryoturbated Non-Sorted Circles Tundra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monteux, S.; Krab, E. J.; Rönnefarth, J.; Becher, M.; Blume-Werry, G.; Kreyling, J.; Keuper, F.; Klaminder, J.; Kobayashi, M.; Lundin, E. J.; Milbau, A.; Teuber, L. M.; Weedon, J.; Dorrepaal, E.

    2014-12-01

    Cryoturbation is the movement of soil particles through repeated freeze-thaw events, resulting in the burial of large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). Non-sorted circles are a common type of cryoturbated ground in arctic and alpine areas underlain by permafrost. They appear as sparsely vegetated areas surrounded by denser tundra vegetation. Climate change in arctic environments will likely increase winter precipitation in large parts of the Arctic in Europe, Asia and America, resulting in deeper snow cover. Snow is a good thermal insulator and modifications in freezing intensity and freeze-thaw cycles are therefore likely, which could affect the burial of organic matter. Moreover, vegetation, soil fauna and soil microbial communities, which are important drivers of SOC dynamics, may be impacted directly by the altered winter conditions and indirectly by reduced cryoturbation. We aimed to investigate this, and therefore subjected non-sorted circles in North-Swedish subarctic alpine tundra to two years of increased thermal insulation in winter and spring, using snow fences or fibre cloth (Figure 1). Both snow fences and fibre cloth manipulations increased surface soil temperatures, especially daily minimum temperatures, and strongly reduced freeze-thaw frequency. We compared the impacts of these manipulations on plant performance, soil chemistry, soil fauna and soil microbial communities between the centre of the circles and the dense tundra heath just outside. Directly after snowmelt, the extra winter insulation decreased plant leaf damage, both in the centre and in adjacent tundra, but responses differed between species. We will further present the responses of plant phenology and growth, soil pH and dissolved organic carbon content, soil fauna activity, Collembola community composition and body size distribution, as well as fungal and bacterial diversity profiles and functional groups abundance. We expect that winter warming due to increased snow cover and its effects on cryoturbation will stimulate the biotic components of non-sorted circles, but may change the interactions between organisms at different trophic levels of this ecosystem. The resulting new balance between increased productivity and decomposer activity might have large implications for this important carbon pool.

  1. Engineering plants to reflect light: strategies for engineering water-efficient plants to adapt to a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Zamft, Bradley M; Conrado, Robert J

    2015-09-01

    Population growth and globally increasing standards of living have put a significant strain on the energy-food-water nexus. Limited water availability particularly affects agriculture, as it accounts for over 70% of global freshwater withdrawals (Aquastat). This study outlines the fundamental nature of plant water consumption and suggests a >50% reduction in renewable freshwater demand is possible by engineering more reflective crops. Furthermore, the decreased radiative forcing resulting from the greater reflectivity of crops would be equivalent to removing 10-50 ppm CO2 from the atmosphere. Recent advances in engineering optical devices and a greater understanding of the mechanisms of biological reflectance suggest such a strategy may now be viable. Here we outline the challenges involved in such an effort and suggest three potential approaches that could enable its implementation. While the local benefits may be straightforward, determining the global externalities will require careful modelling efforts and gradually scaled field trials. PMID:25923193

  2. Sea change under climate change: case studies in rare plant conservation from the dynamic San Francisco Estuary

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We present case studies supporting management of two rare plant species in tidal wetlands of the San Francisco Estuary. For an annual hemiparasite, we used demographic analyses to identify factors to enhance population establishment, survivorship and fitness, and to compare reintroduced with natura...

  3. [Keynote address: Climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Forrister, D.

    1994-12-31

    Broadly speaking, the climate issue is moving from talk to action both in the United States and internationally. While few nations have adopted strict controls or stiff new taxes, a number of them are developing action plans that are making clear their intention to ramp up activity between now and the year 2000... and beyond. There are sensible, economically efficient strategies to be undertaken in the near term that offer the possibility, in many countries, to avoid more draconian measures. These strategies are by-and-large the same measures that the National Academy of Sciences recommended in a 1991 report called, Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. The author thinks the Academy`s most important policy contribution was how it recommended the nations act in the face of uncertain science and high risks--that cost effective measures are adopted as cheap insurance... just as nations insure against other high risk, low certainty possibilities, like catastrophic health insurance, auto insurance, and fire insurance. This insurance theme is still right. First, the author addresses how the international climate change negotiations are beginning to produce insurance measures. Next, the author will discuss some of the key issues to watch in those negotiations that relate to longer-term insurance. And finally, the author will report on progress in the United States on the climate insurance plan--The President`s Climate Action Plan.

  4. Health Effects of Climate Change

    MedlinePlus

    ... adverse risks from exposure to their components and wastes. Better understanding of climate change impacts on the ... including the National Climate Assessment and the U.S. Global Change Research Program, and internationally through the United ...

  5. Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime.

    PubMed

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Anderson, Kurt E; Akçakaya, H Resit; Mizerek, Toni; Winchell, Clark; Regan, Helen M

    2014-08-01

    Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. PMID:24606578

  6. Climate change and child health.

    PubMed

    Seal, Arnab; Vasudevan, Chakrapani

    2011-12-01

    Postindustrial human activity has contributed to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases causing global warming and climate change. The adverse effects of climate change affect children disproportionately, especially in the developing world. Urgent action is necessary to mitigate the causes and adapt to the negative effects of climate change. Paediatricians have an important role in managing the effects of climate change on children and promoting sustainable development. PMID:21335625

  7. Designing Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  8. The velocity of climate change.

    PubMed

    Loarie, Scott R; Duffy, Philip B; Hamilton, Healy; Asner, Gregory P; Field, Christopher B; Ackerly, David D

    2009-12-24

    The ranges of plants and animals are moving in response to recent changes in climate. As temperatures rise, ecosystems with 'nowhere to go', such as mountains, are considered to be more threatened. However, species survival may depend as much on keeping pace with moving climates as the climate's ultimate persistence. Here we present a new index of the velocity of temperature change (km yr(-1)), derived from spatial gradients ( degrees C km(-1)) and multimodel ensemble forecasts of rates of temperature increase ( degrees C yr(-1)) in the twenty-first century. This index represents the instantaneous local velocity along Earth's surface needed to maintain constant temperatures, and has a global mean of 0.42 km yr(-1) (A1B emission scenario). Owing to topographic effects, the velocity of temperature change is lowest in mountainous biomes such as tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08 km yr(-1)), temperate coniferous forest, and montane grasslands. Velocities are highest in flooded grasslands (1.26 km yr(-1)), mangroves and deserts. High velocities suggest that the climates of only 8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding 100 years. Small protected areas exacerbate the problem in Mediterranean-type and temperate coniferous forest biomes. Large protected areas may mitigate the problem in desert biomes. These results indicate management strategies for minimizing biodiversity loss from climate change. Montane landscapes may effectively shelter many species into the next century. Elsewhere, reduced emissions, a much expanded network of protected areas, or efforts to increase species movement may be necessary. PMID:20033047

  9. Ecology: Fungal feedbacks to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Natali, Susan M.; Mack, Michelle C.

    2011-07-01

    Climate change is known to affect the carbon balance of Arctic tundra ecosystems by influencing plant growth and decomposition. Less predictable climate-driven biotic events, such as disease outbreaks, are now shown to potentially shift these ecosystems from net carbon sinks to sources.

  10. A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe.

    PubMed

    Storkey, Jonathan; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Chapman, Daniel S; Vidotto, Francesco; Semenov, Mikhail A

    2014-01-01

    Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an invasive weed in Europe with highly allergenic pollen. Populations are currently well established and cause significant health problems in the French Rhône valley, Austria, Hungary and Croatia but transient or casual introduced populations are also found in more Northern and Eastern European countries. A process-based model of weed growth, competition and population dynamics was used to predict the future potential for range expansion of A.artemisiifolia under climate change scenarios. The model predicted a northward shift in the available climatic niche for populations to establish and persist, creating a risk of increased health problems in countries including the UK and Denmark. This was accompanied by an increase in relative pollen production at the northern edge of its range. The southern European limit for A.artemisiifolia was not expected to change; populations continued to be limited by drought stress in Spain and Southern Italy. The process-based approach to modelling the impact of climate change on plant populations has the advantage over correlative species distribution models of being able to capture interactions of climate, land use and plant competition at the local scale. However, for this potential to be fully realised, additional empirical data are required on competitive dynamics of A.artemisiifolia in different crops and ruderal plant communities and its capacity to adapt to local conditions. PMID:24533071

  11. Agriculture and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Abelson, P.H.

    1992-07-03

    How will increases in levels of CO{sub 2} and changes in temperature affect food production A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO{sub 2} but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO{sub 2} from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO{sub 2} by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops.

  12. Population and climate change.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Joel E

    2010-06-01

    To review, the four broad dimensions of any complex human problem, including climate change, are the human population, economics, culture, and environment. These dimensions interact with one another in all directions and on many time-scales. From 2010 to 2050, the human population is likely to grow bigger, more slowly, older, and more urban. It is projected that by 2050 more than 2.6 billion people (almost 94% of global urban growth) will be added to the urban population in today's developing countries. That works out to 1.26 million additional urban people in today's developing countries every week from 2010 to 2050. Humans alter the climate by emitting greenhouse gases, by altering planetary albedo, and by altering atmospheric components. Between 1900 and 2000, humans' emissions of carbon into the atmosphere increased fifteenfold, while the numbers of people increased less than fourfold. Population growth alone, with constant rates of emissions per person, could not account for the increase in the carbon emissions to the atmosphere. The world economy grew sixteenfold in the twentieth century, accompanied by enormous increases in the burning of gas, oil, and coal. In the last quarter of the twentieth century, population grew much faster in developing countries than in high-income countries, and, compared with population growth, the growth of carbon emissions to the atmosphere was even faster in developing countries than in high-income countries. The ratio of emissions-to-population growth rates was 2.8 in developing countries compared with 1.6 in high-income countries. Emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are influenced by the sizes and density of settlements, the sizes of households, and the ages of householders. Between 2010 and 2050, these demographic factors are anticipated to change substantially. Therefore demography will play a substantial role in the dynamics of climate changes. Climate changes affect many aspects of the living environment, including human settlements, food production, and diseases. These changes will affect poor people more severely than rich, and poor nations more severely than rich. Yet not enough is known to predict quantitatively many details that will matter enormously to future people and other species. Three kinds of responses are related to demographic issues that affect climate changes: universal secondary education, voluntary contraception and maternal health services, and smarter urban design and construction. These responses may prevent, reduce, or ameliorate the impacts of climate changes. They are as relevant to rich countries as to poor, though in ways that are as different as are rich countries and poor. They are desirable in their own right because they improve the lives of the people they affect directly; and they are desirable for their beneficial effects on the larger society and globe. They are effective responses to the twin challenges of reducing poverty and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:21553595

  13. Elevation-induced climate change as a dominant factor causing the late Miocene C(4) plant expansion in the Himalayan foreland.

    PubMed

    Wu, Haibin; Guo, Zhengtang; Guiot, Joël; Hatté, Christine; Peng, Changhui; Yu, Yanyan; Ge, Junyi; Li, Qin; Sun, Aizhi; Zhao, Deai

    2014-05-01

    During the late Miocene, a dramatic global expansion of C4 plant distribution occurred with broad spatial and temporal variations. Although the event is well documented, whether subsequent expansions were caused by a decreased atmospheric CO2 concentration or climate change is a contentious issue. In this study, we used an improved inverse vegetation modeling approach that accounts for the physiological responses of C3 and C4 plants to quantitatively reconstruct the paleoclimate in the Siwalik of Nepal based on pollen and carbon isotope data. We also studied the sensitivity of the C3 and C4 plants to changes in the climate and the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We suggest that the expansion of the C4 plant distribution during the late Miocene may have been primarily triggered by regional aridification and temperature increases. The expansion was unlikely caused by reduced CO2 levels alone. Our findings suggest that this abrupt ecological shift mainly resulted from climate changes related to the decreased elevation of the Himalayan foreland. PMID:24123607

  14. Elevation-induced climate change as a dominant factor causing the late Miocene C4 plant expansion in the Himalayan foreland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, H.; Guo, Z.; Guiot, J.; Hatte, C.; Peng, C.; Yu, Y.; Ge, J.; Li, Q.; Sun, A.; Zhao, D.

    2014-12-01

    During the late Miocene, a dramatic global expansion of C4 plant distribution occurred with broad spatial and temporal variations. Although the event is well documented, whether subsequent expansions were caused by a decreased atmospheric CO2 concentration or climate change is a contentious issue. In the present study, we used an improved inverse vegetation modeling approach that accounts for the physiological responses of C3 and C4 plants to quantitatively reconstruct the paleoclimate in the Siwalik of Nepal based on pollen and carbon isotope data. We also studied the sensitivity of the C3 and C4 plants to changes in the climate and the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We suggest that the expansion of the C4 plant distribution during the late Miocene may have been primarily triggered by regional aridification and temperature increases. The expansion was unlikely caused by reduced CO2 levels alone. Our findings suggest that this abrupt ecological shift mainly resulted from climate changes related to the decreased elevation of the Himalayan foreland.

  15. Climate Variability and Change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    U.S. Geological Survey

    2007-01-01

    In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a science strategy outlining the major natural science issues facing the Nation in the next decade. The science strategy consists of six science directions of critical importance, focusing on areas where natural science can make a substantial contribution to the well-being of the Nation and the world. This fact sheet focuses on climate variability and change and how USGS research can strengthen the Nation with information needed to meet the challenges of the 21st century.

  16. Climate change and security.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Paul

    2009-04-01

    Climate change was originally expected to have its main impact on countries in temperate latitudes which, because of their relative wealth, would be best able to cope. It is now far more likely that much poorer states in the tropics and sub-tropics will experience severe impacts. This is compounded by the widening socioeconomic divide and the combination of these divisions, with environmental constraints, will have a profound impact on human security. The dangerous response to the prospects of mass migration and radical social movements is to attempt to maintain control without addressing underlying problems. Instead, there is an urgent need to embrace new concepts of sustainable security. PMID:19435111

  17. Terrestrial ecosystems and climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Emanuel, W.R. ); Schimel, D.S. . Natural Resources Ecology Lab.)

    1990-01-01

    The structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems depend on climate, and in turn, ecosystems influence atmospheric composition and climate. A comprehensive, global model of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics is needed. A hierarchical approach appears advisable given currently available concepts, data, and formalisms. The organization of models can be based on the temporal scales involved. A rapidly responding model describes the processes associated with photosynthesis, including carbon, moisture, and heat exchange with the atmosphere. An intermediate model handles subannual variations that are closely associated with allocation and seasonal changes in productivity and decomposition. A slow response model describes plant growth and succession with associated element cycling over decades and centuries. These three levels of terrestrial models are linked through common specifications of environmental conditions and constrain each other. 58 refs.

  18. Facilitative plant interactions and climate simultaneously drive alpine plant diversity.

    PubMed

    Cavieres, Lohengrin A; Brooker, Rob W; Butterfield, Bradley J; Cook, Bradley J; Kikvidze, Zaal; Lortie, Christopher J; Michalet, Richard; Pugnaire, Francisco I; Schöb, Christian; Xiao, Sa; Anthelme, Fabien; Björk, Robert G; Dickinson, Katharine J M; Cranston, Brittany H; Gavilán, Rosario; Gutiérrez-Girón, Alba; Kanka, Robert; Maalouf, Jean-Paul; Mark, Alan F; Noroozi, Jalil; Parajuli, Rabindra; Phoenix, Gareth K; Reid, Anya M; Ridenour, Wendy M; Rixen, Christian; Wipf, Sonja; Zhao, Liang; Escudero, Adrián; Zaitchik, Benjamin F; Lingua, Emanuele; Aschehoug, Erik T; Callaway, Ragan M

    2014-02-01

    Interactions among species determine local-scale diversity, but local interactions are thought to have minor effects at larger scales. However, quantitative comparisons of the importance of biotic interactions relative to other drivers are rarely made at larger scales. Using a data set spanning 78 sites and five continents, we assessed the relative importance of biotic interactions and climate in determining plant diversity in alpine ecosystems dominated by nurse-plant cushion species. Climate variables related with water balance showed the highest correlation with richness at the global scale. Strikingly, although the effect of cushion species on diversity was lower than that of climate, its contribution was still substantial. In particular, cushion species enhanced species richness more in systems with inherently impoverished local diversity. Nurse species appear to act as a 'safety net' sustaining diversity under harsh conditions, demonstrating that climate and species interactions should be integrated when predicting future biodiversity effects of climate change. PMID:24238015

  19. Phenotypic response of plants to simulated climate change in a long-term rain-manipulation experiment: a multi-species study.

    PubMed

    Hänel, Sabine; Tielbörger, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Many species will need to adapt to the observed climate change in order to persist. However, research about adaptation or phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change is rare. In particular, field studies are lacking that impose artificial selection for a sufficiently long time to elicit changes in phenotypic and genotypic structure of populations. Here, we present findings for an 8-year field experiment with 16 annual plant species that tested potentially adaptive phenotypic responses to precipitation change. In both a Mediterranean and a semi-arid site, annual precipitation was manipulated (±30%) and phenotypic response was recorded. We measured flowering time as a key trait related to climatic conditions and biomass and survival as fitness correlates. Differences in traits among treatments were compared to trait shifts between sites, according to space-for-time approaches. In the drier site, phenology was accelerated, but within that site, experimental drought delayed phenology, probably as a plastic response to delayed ontogenetic development. Biomass was smaller in the dry treatments of that site, but it was also reduced in irrigated plots in both sites, indicating more intense competition. The shifts from limitation by drought to limitation by competition corresponded to patterns along the gradient. This also implies a larger negative impact of climate change in the drier site. Our results suggest that experimental selection in the field caused directional responses in most species, but these were not necessarily adaptive. Furthermore, competitive release imposed by climate change may revert direct negative effects of rainfall change in determining plant performance. PMID:25707776

  20. Ruminants, climate change and climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ripple, William J.; Smith, Pete; Haberl, Helmut; Montzka, Stephen A.; McAlpine, Clive; Boucher, Douglas H.

    2014-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant meat production are significant. Reductions in global ruminant numbers could make a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation goals and yield important social and environmental co-benefits.

  1. Climate Change on Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, R. M.; Cuzzi, Jeffrey N. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    Today, Mars is cold and dry. With a 7 mbar mean surface pressure, its thin predominantly CO2 atmosphere is not capable of raising global mean surface temperatures significantly above its 217K effective radiating temperature, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is equivalent to a global ocean only 10 microns deep. Has Mars always been in such a deep freeze? There are several lines of evidence that suggest it has not. First, there are the valley networks which are found throughout the heavily cratered terrains. These features are old (3.8 Gyr) and appear to require liquid water to form. A warm climate early in Mars' history has often been invoked to explain them, but the precise conditions required to achieve this have yet to be determined. Second, some of the features seen in orbiter images of the surface have been interpreted in terms of glacial activity associated with an active hydrological cycle some several billion years ago. This interpretation is controversial as it requires the release of enormous quantities of ground water and enough greenhouse warming to raise temperatures to the melting point. Finally, there are the layered terrains that characterize both polar regions. These terrains are geologically young (10 Myr) and are believed to have formed by the slow and steady deposition of dust and water ice from the atmosphere. The individual layers result from the modulation of the deposition rate which is driven by changes in Mars' orbital parameters. The ongoing research into each of these areas of Martian climate change will be reviewed, and similarities to the Earth's climate system will be noted.

  2. Climate change as the dominant control on glacial-interglacial variations in C3 and C4 plant abundance.

    PubMed

    Huang, Y; Street-Perrott, F A; Metcalfe, S E; Brenner, M; Moreland, M; Freeman, K H

    2001-08-31

    Although C4 plant expansions have been recognized in the late Miocene, identification of the underlying causes is complicated by the uncertainties associated with estimates of ancient precipitation, temperature, and partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (PCO2). Here we report the carbon isotopic compositions of leaf wax n-alkanes in lake sediment cores from two sites in Mesoamerica that have experienced contrasting moisture variations since the last glacial maximum. Opposite isotopic trends obtained from these two sites indicate that regional climate exerts a strong control on the relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants and that in the absence of favorable moisture and temperature conditions, low PCO2 alone is insufficient to drive an expansion of C4 plants. PMID:11533488

  3. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

  4. Predicting space climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnard, L.; Lockwood, M.; Hapgood, M. A.; Owens, M. J.; Davis, C. J.; Steinhilber, F.

    2011-08-01

    The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest-fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long-term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300-year record.

  5. Climate Change: Prospects for Nature

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas Lovejoy

    2008-03-12

    Thomas Lovejoy, President of The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, explores the impact of climate change on the natural world. He also discusses the implications of climate change for climate policy and natural resource management.

  6. Predicting the impacts of climate change on plant dynamics and tree-grass-shrub competition using a Cellular Automata model in a Mediterranean catchment in Sicily, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noto, L. V.; Caracciolo, D.; Fatichi, S.; Istanbulluoglu, E.

    2013-12-01

    Understanding and predicting vegetation change along ecosystem boundaries is among paramount challenges in ecohydrology. In this study, Cellular-Automaton Tree Grass Shrub Simulator (CATGraSS) is implemented in a small upland catchment in Sicily, IT, where north-facing slopes are characterized by quercus (trees), and south-facing slopes exhibit plant coexistence, composed of Opuntia ficus-indaca (shrub) and grasses, to examine the control of solar radiation on plant development and predict potential trajectories of vegetation change under the stress of global warming. CATGraSS is driven by stochastic rainfall and variable solar radiation on topography, represented by a fine-scale gridded domain where vegetation type at each cell is represented individually. In the model, each cell can hold a single plant type or remain empty. Plant competition is modeled explicitly by keeping track of mortality and establishment of plants, both calculated probabilistically based on soil moisture stress. Spatially explicit treatment of solar radiation, and a lower limit to soil moisture storage imposed by bedrock depth lead to spatial organization in evapotranspiration, soil moisture, runoff, and plant type. CATGraSS is first calibrated at the field site driven by stochastic climate that represent the current climate at the study site. Calibrated model results are examined against Google-Earth images. Implications of future climate change are examined using the advanced weather generator (AWE-GEN). AWE-GEN characterizes the statistical characteristics of selected climate variables and their change over time based on a multi-model ensemble of outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs). Stochastic downscaling is carried out using simulations of twelve GCMs adopted in the IPCC 4AR, A1B emission scenario for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Future vegetation changed is predicted to bring a dramatic reorganization of the plant composition based mainly on the topography, characterized by loss of quercus and expansion of grass. Rapid vegetation change could lead to soil erosion, prone soils and changes in the biogeochemical processes in such steep mountainous terrains in the region.

  7. Improved ground-based remote-sensing systems help monitor plant response to climate and other changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dye, Dennis G.; Bogle, Rian C.

    2016-01-01

    Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey are improving and developing new ground-based remote-sensing instruments and techniques to study how Earth’s vegetation responds to changing climates. Do seasonal grasslands and forests “green up” early (or late) and grow more (or less) during unusually warm years? How do changes in temperature and precipitation affect these patterns? Innovations in ground-based remote-sensing instrumentation can help us understand, assess, and mitigate the effects of climate change on vegetation and related land resources.

  8. Scenarios of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graßl, H.

    2009-09-01

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8°C, and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2°C is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun’s supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action.

  9. Groundwater under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moeck, C.; Schirmer, M.; Hunkeler, D.; Project Of National Research Programme "Sustainable Water Management" (Nrp 61)

    2010-12-01

    Climate change has a large impact on different environmental issues, such as groundwater availability. In Switzerland, springs provide nearly 40 % of the drinking water and are, in many regions, the main water supply. Dry periods show how vulnerable some of these systems are. The response of springs to drought, however, is complex and not readily predictable. While some show a decrease of discharge and low water table values, others do not react, or only slightly, to such extreme weather conditions. The aim of this study is to understand the behavior of springs and to estimate their vulnerability under different climate scenarios. Two different field sites are presented. The first site is located at Wohlenschwil in a relatively flat moraine landscape (400 m a.s.L.) overlying a porous aquifer. Because of the water abstraction scheme, no spring discharge can be observed but the dynamic of this system is typical of spring behavior. The second site is located in the Upper Emme valley, a hilly region where groundwater flows mostly in fractured Molasse before discharging through springs at an altitude of 860 m a.s.L. Tracer tests and isotopes measurements, as well as geophysical and hydraulic methods to quantify recharge processes and estimate buffer capacity of the systems during dry phases, are applied for unsaturated and saturated zones. All field results are used to build up a fully coupled numerical model (HydroGeoSphere), which gives results about the dynamic of the system with given climate scenarios. Preliminary results from tracer tests and numerical modeling show that, only with an integral approach that includes both the saturated and unsaturated zones, a global assessment of transit times and of the buffer capacity is possible. Furthermore, numerical modeling based partly on soil water measurements and a structure analysis of the “Wohlenschwil” catchment shows that recharge processes are only controlled by precipitation and that inflow from borders are of minor role. The dynamic of this area is strongly dependent on the local climate. The next step will be a more detailed investigation of the soil to obtain a better understanding of direct recharge and flow processes in the unsaturated zone. Therefore soil moisture measurements at different location in the catchment will be carried out

  10. Climate change: Cropping system changes and adaptations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change impacts the life of every person; however, there is little comprehensive understanding of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on agriculture. Since our food, feed, fiber, and fruit is derived from agricultural systems, understanding the effects of changing temperature, p...

  11. Is planting forests bad for the climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, P. K.; Williams, M.

    2010-12-01

    Planting forests is one of few readily available and proven approaches to mitigating climate change through the sequestering of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). In order to avoid a doubling in the concentration of atmospheric CO2 from preindustrial values by mid-century will require a multitude of technologies and approaches - carbon sequestration through forest planting being one of the more practical ones. It has been estimated that the establishment of 400 Mha of new forests in temperate latitudes and 300 Mha of plantations on nonforested land would account for an equivalent of 1 GtC/year of reduced carbon emissions over the life of a forest. Policies currently being proposed and debated in Congress have carbon sequestration as a central component of a national plan for mitigating climate change (e.g., Cap and Trade), however there is considerable uncertainty over whether afforestation/reforestation will actually do more harm than good. Planting a forest may decrease the surface reflectivity resulting in greater net radiation being absorbed at the surface and thus, surface warming. In some cases this warming can more than offset the climate benefit derived from carbon sequestration. A number of theoretical studies have suggested that planting forests in temperate and high latitudes could actually have the unintended consequence of warming the planet by decreasing the surface reflectivity. These studies, however, have relied on coarse-resolution climate models with unrealistic representation of forest structure and dynamics. In reality there are compounding forest and environmental factors that affect how the climate responds to planting a forest. Here we present results from a dynamic global vegetation model in which we evaluate the competing effects of fraction cover of forest, stand age, and local climate on the total benefit to the climate system. A benefit occurs when the radiative forcing equivalent of sequestration exceeds the increase in surface net radiation resulting from placement of a forest. Our study indicates that regionally there are large variations in the climate benefit of forest placement. There are some regions of temperate and boreal latitudes where forest plantations could be placed to benefit the climate system, but only if the local climate, stand age, and fraction cover of forest are also considered. Different regions require different configurations of forest age structure and cover depending on where the forest is placed. This study offers new insight on the feasibility of large-scale forest planting as a climate mitigation strategy.

  12. Preparing for climate change.

    PubMed

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been released in great quantities through their use in aerosol sprays, refrigerator fluids, and insulating foams. We can get rid of CFCs and curb the pollutants generating ozone, but it will be difficult to put the brake on either methane or nitrous oxide. And the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions will demand major changes in energy policy as well as action to slow deforestation. It appears that we are already committed to rising temperatures and sea levels. The question is by how much, in which areas? A number of things can be done to prepare for these changes: Governments must recognize that there is a problem; Better models must be worked out, especially to define where the greatest impacts from climate change and sea level rise will hit; Reference scenarios must be developed to see what the impacts are likely to be in ecological, agricultural, social and economic terms; Every country should develop "avoidance strategies" to minimize risk (for example, by not building on land likely to be flooded); We must cut down on the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere from human activities, by eliminating CFCs and adopting energy conservation programs and other measures to minimize CO2 release; Global agreements to protect the atmosphere are needed. PMID:12285901

  13. Are different facets of plant diversity well protected against climate and land cover changes? A test study in the French Alps

    PubMed Central

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Guéguen, Maya; Georges, Damien; Bonet, Richard; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Garraud, Luc; Renaud, Julien; Roquet, Cristina; Van Es, Jérémie; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Lavergne, Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    Climate and land cover changes are important drivers of the plant species distributions and diversity patterns in mountainous regions. Although the need for a multifaceted view of diversity based on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic dimensions is now commonly recognized, there are no complete risk assessments concerning their expected changes. In this paper, we used a range of species distribution models in an ensemble-forecasting framework together with regional climate and land cover projections by 2080 to analyze the potential threat for more than 2,500 plant species at high resolution (2.5 km × 2.5 km) in the French Alps. We also decomposed taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity facets into α and β components and analyzed their expected changes by 2080. Overall, plant species threats from climate and land cover changes in the French Alps were expected to vary depending on the species’ preferred altitudinal vegetation zone, rarity, and conservation status. Indeed, rare species and species of conservation concern were the ones projected to experience less severe change, and also the ones being the most efficiently preserved by the current network of protected areas. Conversely, the three facets of plant diversity were also projected to experience drastic spatial re-shuffling by 2080. In general, the mean α-diversity of the three facets was projected to increase to the detriment of regional β-diversity, although the latter was projected to remain high at the montane-alpine transition zones. Our results show that, due to a high-altitude distribution, the current protection network is efficient for rare species, and species predicted to migrate upward. Although our modeling framework may not capture all possible mechanisms of species range shifts, our work illustrates that a comprehensive risk assessment on an entire floristic region combined with functional and phylogenetic information can help delimitate future scenarios of biodiversity and better design its protection. PMID:25722539

  14. Ecological response to global climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

  15. Re-assessing the role of plant community change and climate in the PETM n-alkane record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bush, R. T.; Baczynski, A. A.; McInerney, F. A.; Chen, D.

    2012-12-01

    The terrestrial leaf wax n-alkane record of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, shows large excursions in both carbon isotope (δ13C) values and n-alkane average chain length (ACL). At the onset of the PETM, ACL values increase from ~28.5 to ~30.1 while the negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) is 4-6‰ in magnitude and larger than δ13C records from other materials. It has been hypothesized previously that both the ACL excursion and the large magnitude of the CIE were caused by a concurrent turnover in the local flora from a mixed conifer/angiosperm community before the PETM to a different suite of angiosperm species during the PETM. Here, we present the results of a meta-analysis of data (>2000 data from 89 sources, both published and unpublished) on n-alkane amounts and chain length distributions in modern plants from around the world. We applied the data in two sets of comparisons: 1) within and among plant groups such as herbs and graminoids, and 2) between plants and climate, using reported collection locations for outdoor plants and climate values generated via GIS extraction of WorldClim modeled data. We show that angiosperms, as group, produce more n-alkanes than do gymnosperms by 1-2 orders of magnitude, and this means that the gymnosperm contribution to a mixed soil n-alkane pool would be negligible, even in an ecosystem where gymnosperms dominated (i.e. the pre/post-PETM ecosystems). The modern plant data also demonstrate that turnover of the plant community during the PETM, even among only the angiosperm species, is likely not the source of the observed ACL excursion. First, we constructed "representative" groups of PETM and pre/post-PETM communities using living relative species at the Chicago Botanic Garden and find no significant difference in chain length distributions between the two groups. Second and moreover, the modern plant data reveal that n-alkane chain length distributions are tremendously variable within large vascular plant groups--both functional groups such as woody plants or graminoids as well as phylogenetic groups at the family level or higher. This variability makes it difficult at best to use n-alkane chain lengths to distinguish one vascular group from another, as was previously suggested. Instead, our results suggest that chain length distributions and ACL are driven more by climate, especially temperature. Longer chain lengths, with their increased hydrophobicity, would likely experience favorable selection under warmer or drier conditions where leaf water loss is likely to be a greater stress. Thus, it may be that we can interpret the increase in ACL during the PETM as a direct response by the flora to increased temperature during the hyperthermal event, and n-alkane chain length distributions, properly constrained, may possibly serve as a qualitative paleotemperature proxy.

  16. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    PubMed

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. PMID:24916195

  17. Hearing Examines Climate Change Economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2007-03-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has released its summary report on the science of climate change and will release subsequent reports on impacts and response strategies in coming months (see Eos 88(7), 2007). With this as backdrop, attention to issues related to climate change policy has been growing, particularly within the U.S. government where House and Senate committees continue to hold hearings each week on various aspects of climate change. One of these hearings, held 28 February by the House Ways and Means Committee, focused on the economic issues related to strategies for reducing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

  18. Climate change and moral judgement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markowitz, Ezra M.; Shariff, Azim F.

    2012-04-01

    Converging evidence from the behavioural and brain sciences suggests that the human moral judgement system is not well equipped to identify climate change -- a complex, large-scale and unintentionally caused phenomenon -- as an important moral imperative. As climate change fails to generate strong moral intuitions, it does not motivate an urgent need for action in the way that other moral imperatives do. We review six reasons why climate change poses significant challenges to our moral judgement system and describe six strategies that communicators might use to confront these challenges. Enhancing moral intuitions about climate change may motivate greater support for ameliorative actions and policies.

  19. Expert credibility in climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H

    2010-07-01

    Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers. PMID:20566872

  20. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  1. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  2. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate scientists configure computer model parameters through the portal user interface. After model configuration, scientists then launch the computing task. Next, data is atomized and distributed to computing engines that are running on citizen participants' computers. Scientists will receive notifications on the completion of computing tasks, and examine modeling results via visualization modules of the portal. Computing tasks, computing resources, and participants are managed by project managers via portal tools. A portal prototype has been built for proof of concept. Three forums have been setup for different groups of users to share information on science aspect, technology aspect, and educational outreach aspect. A facebook account has been setup to distribute messages via the most popular social networking platform. New treads are synchronized from the forums to facebook. A mapping tool displays geographic locations of the participants and the status of tasks on each client node. A group of users have been invited to test functions such as forums, blogs, and computing resource monitoring.

  3. Climate Change and National Security

    SciTech Connect

    Malone, Elizabeth L.

    2013-02-01

    Climate change is increasingly recognized as having national security implications, which has prompted dialogue between the climate change and national security communities – with resultant advantages and differences. Climate change research has proven useful to the national security community sponsors in several ways. It has opened security discussions to consider climate as well as political factors in studies of the future. It has encouraged factoring in the stresses placed on societies by climate changes (of any kind) to help assess the potential for state stability. And it has shown that, changes such as increased heat, more intense storms, longer periods without rain, and earlier spring onset call for building climate resilience as part of building stability. For the climate change research community, studies from a national security point of view have revealed research lacunae, for example, such as the lack of usable migration studies. This has also pushed the research community to consider second- and third-order impacts of climate change, such as migration and state stability, which broadens discussion of future impacts beyond temperature increases, severe storms, and sea level rise; and affirms the importance of governance in responding to these changes. The increasing emphasis in climate change science toward research in vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation also frames what the intelligence and defense communities need to know, including where there are dependencies and weaknesses that may allow climate change impacts to result in security threats and where social and economic interventions can prevent climate change impacts and other stressors from resulting in social and political instability or collapse.

  4. Climate change, conflict and health.

    PubMed

    Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

    2015-10-01

    Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. PMID:26432813

  5. Genetics of climate change adaptation.

    PubMed

    Franks, Steven J; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2012-01-01

    The rapid rate of current global climate change is having strong effects on many species and, at least in some cases, is driving evolution, particularly when changes in conditions alter patterns of selection. Climate change thus provides an opportunity for the study of the genetic basis of adaptation. Such studies include a variety of observational and experimental approaches, such as sampling across clines, artificial evolution experiments, and resurrection studies. These approaches can be combined with a number of techniques in genetics and genomics, including association and mapping analyses, genome scans, and transcription profiling. Recent research has revealed a number of candidate genes potentially involved in climate change adaptation and has also illustrated that genetic regulatory networks and epigenetic effects may be particularly relevant for evolution driven by climate change. Although genetic and genomic data are rapidly accumulating, we still have much to learn about the genetic architecture of climate change adaptation. PMID:22934640

  6. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full range of interacting processes, both in the climate system and in human responses. But conceptualizing the challenge of climate change as a challenge in managing risks also opens a path to a wide range of options for solutions. Together, the agenda for research and the options for solutions build toward Steve's vision.

  7. Canadian vegetation response to climate and projected climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Lenihan, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The response of Canadian vegetation to climate and climatic change was modeled at three organizational levels of the vegetation mosaic. Snowpack, degree-days, minimum temperature, soil moisture deficit, and actual evapotranspiration are components of climate that physiologically constrain distribution of dominant plant life-forms and species. The rule-based Canadian Climate-Vegetation Model (CCVM) predicts the response of vegetation formations to climate. The CCVM simulation for current climatic conditions is more accurate and detailed than those of other equilibrium models. Ecological response surfaces predict the probability of dominance for eight boreal tree species in Canada with success. Variation in the probability of dominance is related to the species' individualistic response to climatic constraints within different airmass regions. A boreal forest-type classification shows a high degree of geographic correspondence with observed forest-types. Under two doubled-CO[sub 2] climatic scenarios, CCVM predicts a reduction in arctic tundra and subarctic woodland, a northward shift in the distribution of boreal evergreen forest, and an expansion of temperate forest, boreal summergreen woodland, and two prairie formations. The response surfaces predict significant changes in species dominance under both climatic scenarios. Species exhibit an individualistic responses to climatic change. Most of the boreal forest-types derived from future probabilities of dominance are analogous to extant forest-types, but fewer types are distinguished. Geographic correspondence in the simulated boreal forest regions under both the current and projected climates provides a link between the results of the two modelling approaches. Even with constraints, the realism of the vegetation scenarios in this study are arguably the most reliable and comprehensive predictions for Canada.

  8. Costing climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reay, David S.

    2002-12-01

    Debate over how, when, and even whether man-made greenhouse-gas emissions should be controlled has grown in intensity even faster than the levels of greenhouse gas in our atmosphere. Many argue that the costs involved in reducing emissions outweigh the potential economic damage of human-induced climate change. Here, existing cost-benefit analyses of greenhouse-gas reduction policies are examined, with a view to establishing whether any such global reductions are currently worthwhile. Potential for, and cost of, cutting our own individual greenhouse-gas emissions is then assessed. I find that many abatement strategies are able to deliver significant emission reductions at little or no net cost. Additionally, I find that there is huge potential for individuals to simultaneously cut their own greenhouse-gas emissions and save money. I conclude that cuts in global greenhouse-gas emissions, such as those of the Kyoto Protocol, cannot be justifiably dismissed as posing too large an economic burden.

  9. Geomorphic responses to climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Bull, W.B.

    1991-01-01

    The primary focus of this book is the response of landscapes to Pleistocene and Holocene climatic changes. During the past 40 ky the global climate has varied from full-glacial to interglacial. Global temperatures decreased between 40 and 20 ka culminating in full-glacial climatic conditions at 20 ka. This resulted in a sea level decline of 130 m. Only 8 to 14 ky later the global temperature had reversed itself and the climate was the warmest of the past 120 ky. These dramatic changes in climate imposed significant controls on fluvial systems and impacted land forms and whole landscapes worldwide. Chapter 1, Conceptual Models for Changing landscapes, presents numerous concepts related to erosional and depositional processes controlling landscape development. Each of the next four chapters of the book, 2, 3, 4, and 5, examine different aspects of climatic change on fluvial systems. The conceptual models are used to analyze landscape response in four different climatic and geologic settings. In each setting the present and past climatic conditions, the climatically induced changes in vegetation and soil development, and geochronology are considered in assessing the influence of climatic changes on geomorphic processes. Chapter 2, investigates the influence of climatic change on the geomorphic processes operating in desert watersheds in the southwestern US and northern Mexico. The study sites for Chapter 3, are small desert drainage basins in the southwestern US and near the Sinai Peninsula in the Middle East. Chapter 4, investigates fill terraces in several drainage basins of the San Gabrial Mountains of the central Transverse Ranges of coastal southern California. The study site for Chapter 5 is the Charwell River watershed in the Seaward Kaikoura Range of New Zealand. Chapter 6, Difference Responses of Arid and Humid Fluvial Systems, compares the effects of changing climates in basins that range from extremely arid to humid.

  10. Ground Water and Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  11. Ground water and climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2012-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  12. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  13. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    PubMed

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility. PMID:19847671

  14. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  15. Generating Arguments about Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

    2012-01-01

    This unit is a different and fun way to engage students with an extremely important topic, climate change, which cuts across scientific and nonscientific disciplines. While climate change itself may not be listed in the curriculum of every science class, the authors contend that such a unit is appropriate for virtually any science curriculum.…

  16. FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange is the first binding international legal instrument that deals directly with climate change. The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992 after negotiations by the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for aFra...

  17. Generating Arguments about Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

    2012-01-01

    This unit is a different and fun way to engage students with an extremely important topic, climate change, which cuts across scientific and nonscientific disciplines. While climate change itself may not be listed in the curriculum of every science class, the authors contend that such a unit is appropriate for virtually any science curriculum.

  18. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media

  19. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  20. Food security under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  1. Crop and pasture response to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Tubiello, Francesco N.; Soussana, Jean-Franois; Howden, S. Mark

    2007-01-01

    We review recent research of importance to understanding crop and pasture plant species response to climate change. Topics include plant response to elevated CO2 concentration, interactions with climate change variables and air pollutants, impacts of increased climate variability and frequency of extreme events, the role of weeds and pests, disease and animal health, issues in biodiversity, and vulnerability of soil carbon pools. We critically analyze the links between fundamental knowledge at the plant and plot level and the additional socio-economic variables that determine actual production and trade of food at regional to global scales. We conclude by making recommendations for current and future research needs, with a focus on continued and improved integration of experimental and modeling efforts. PMID:18077401

  2. Implications of abrupt climate change.

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.

    2004-01-01

    Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic. PMID:17060975

  3. Climate change and human health.

    PubMed

    Luber, George; Prudent, Natasha

    2009-01-01

    Climate change science points to an increase in sea surface temperature, increases in the severity of extreme weather events, declining air quality, and destabilizing natural systems due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions. The direct and indirect health results of such a global imbalance include excessive heat-related illnesses, vector- and waterborne diseases, increased exposure to environmental toxins, exacerbation of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases due to declining air quality, and mental health stress among others. Vulnerability to these health effects will increase as elderly and urban populations increase and are less able to adapt to climate change. In addition, the level of vulnerability to certain health impacts will vary by location. As a result, strategies to address climate change must include health as a strategic component on a regional level. The co-benefits of improving health while addressing climate change will improve public health infrastructure today, while mitigating the negative consequences of a changing climate for future generations. PMID:19768168

  4. Climate Change and Human Health

    PubMed Central

    Luber, George; Prudent, Natasha

    2009-01-01

    Climate change science points to an increase in sea surface temperature, increases in the severity of extreme weather events, declining air quality, and destabilizing natural systems due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions. The direct and indirect health results of such a global imbalance include excessive heat-related illnesses, vector- and waterborne diseases, increased exposure to environmental toxins, exacerbation of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases due to declining air quality, and mental health stress among others. Vulnerability to these health effects will increase as elderly and urban populations increase and are less able to adapt to climate change. In addition, the level of vulnerability to certain health impacts will vary by location. As a result, strategies to address climate change must include health as a strategic component on a regional level. The co-benefits of improving health while addressing climate change will improve public health infrastructure today, while mitigating the negative consequences of a changing climate for future generations. PMID:19768168

  5. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  6. Coherent changes in relative C4 plant productivity and climate during the late Quaternary in the North American Great Plains

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nordt, L.; Von Fischer, J.; Tieszen, L.; Tubbs, J.

    2008-01-01

    Evolution of the mixed and shortgrass prairie of the North American Great Plains is poorly understood because of limited proxies available for environmental interpretations. Buried soils in the Great Plains provide a solution to the problem because they are widespread both spatially and temporally with their organic reservoirs serving as a link to the plants than once grew on them. Through stable carbon isotopic analysis of soil organic carbon (??13C), the percent carbon from C4 plants (%C4) can be ascertained. Because C4 plants are primarily warm season grasses responding positively to summer temperature, their representation has the added advantage of serving as a climate indicator. To better understand grassland and climate dynamics in the Great Plains during the last 12 ka (ka=1000 radiocarbon years) we developed an isotopic standardization technique by: determining the difference in buried soil ??13C and modern soil ??13C expected for that latitude (????13C), and transferring the ????13C to ??%C4 (% C4) using mass balance calculations. Our analysis reveals two isotopic stages in the mixed and shortgrass prairie of the Great Plains based on trends in ??%C4. In response to orbital forcing mechanisms, ??%C4 was persistently below modern in the Great Plains between 12 and 6.7 ka (isotopic stage II) evidently because of the cooling effect of the Laurentide ice sheet and proglacial lakes in northern latitudes, and glacial meltwater pulses cooling the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean. The ??%C4 after 6.7 ka (isotopic stage I) increased to modern levels as conditioned by the outflow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and dry incursions from the west that produced periodic drought. At the millennial-scale, time series analysis demonstrates that ??%C4 oscillated with 0.6 and 1.8 ka periodicities, possibly governed by variations in solar irradiance. Our buried soil isotopic record correlates well with other environmental proxy from the Great Plains and surrounding regions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Climate change and dead zones.

    PubMed

    Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B

    2015-04-01

    Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. PMID:25385668

  8. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Howden, S. Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists. PMID:18077402

  9. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    PubMed

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists. PMID:18077402

  10. Climate signals in Palaeozoic land plants

    PubMed Central

    Edwards, D.

    1998-01-01

    The Palaeozoic is regarded as a period in which it is difficult to recognize climate signals in land plants because they have few or no close extant relatives. In addition early, predominantly axial, representatives lack the features, e.g. leaf laminae, secondary growth, used later as qualitative and quantitive measures of past climates. Exceptions are stomata, and the preliminary results of a case study of a single taxon present throughout the Devonian, and analysis of stomatal complex anatomy attempt to disentangle evolutionary, taxonomic, habitat and atmospheric effects on stomatal frequencies. Ordovician-Silurian vegetation is represented mainly by spores whose widespread global distribution on palaeocontinental reconstructions with inferred climates suggest that the producers were independent of major climate variables, probably employing the physiology and behavioural strategies of extant bryophytes, further characterized by small size. Growth-ring studies, first possible on Mid-Devonian plants, have proved most informative in elucidating the climate at high palaeolatitudes in Late Permian Gondwana. Changes in the composition of Carboniferous-Permian low-latitude wetland vegetation are discussed in relation to tectonic activity and glaciation, with most confidence placed on the conclusion that major extinctions at the Westphalian-Stephanian boundary in Euramerica resulted from increased seasonality created by changes in circulation patterns at low latitudes imposed by the decrease of glaciations in most parts of Gondwana.

  11. Plant wax δD values record changing Eastern Mediterranean atmospheric circulation patterns during the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schemmel, Fabian; Niedermeyer, Eva M.; Schwab, Valérie F.; Gleixner, Gerd; Pross, Jörg; Mulch, Andreas

    2016-02-01

    Throughout the Holocene, the climate of the Mediterranean region has been strongly influenced by variability in the atmospheric circulation of the high and low latitudes. A prominent example for such Holocene climate perturbations is the '8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event'. Reorganization of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns resulted in variations of temperature and precipitation distribution across the Mediterranean. The effects of changing high- and low-latitude atmospheric circulation on Mediterranean climate in relation to the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event are, however, not well understood. Here we present a high-resolution record of stable hydrogen isotope composition of plant-wax n-alkanes (δDwax) across the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event from the Tenaghi Philippon peat deposit (NE Greece) in order to characterize patterns of precipitation and changes in atmospheric circulation in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our record reveals pronounced changes in δDwax that correlate closely with previously published palynological data. A long-term decline in δDwax values characterizes the lower part of the section. The 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event itself is connected to two distinct positive δDwax excursions: a minor shift in δDwax around 8.2 kyr B.P. and a major shift in δDwax between ca. 8.1 and 8.0 kyr B.P.. The upper part of the section shows a progressive trend towards higher δDwax values. We link shifts in δDwax to changes in Mediterranean air mass trajectories supplying precipitation to NE Greece caused by variations in the relative contributions of northerly-derived, D-depleted moisture and southerly-derived, D-enriched moisture. Possible control mechanisms for alternating air mass trajectories include changes in the influence of the Siberian High and differences in the influence of the African and Asian monsoon circulation on anticyclonic conditions in the Mediterranean region as well as regional inflow of moist air masses from the Aegean Sea.

  12. Climatic Variability Leads to Later Seasonal Flowering of Floridian Plants

    PubMed Central

    Von Holle, Betsy; Wei, Yun; Nickerson, David

    2010-01-01

    Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses. PMID:20657765

  13. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SOIL EROSION IN MIDWEST UNITED STATES WITH CHANGES IN CROP MANAGEMENT

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This study investigates potential erosion changes in the Midwestern United States under climate change, including the adaptation of farm management to climate change. Previous studies of erosion under climate change have not taken into account farmer choices of crop rotation or planting date, which ...

  14. Atmospheric Science: Solving Challenges of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Geffen, Charlette

    2015-08-05

    PNNL’s atmospheric science research provides data required to make decisions about challenges presented by climate change: Where to site power plants, how to manage water resources, how to prepare for severe weather events and more. Our expertise in fundamental observations and modeling is recognized among the national labs and the world.

  15. Climate change: Challenges for future crop adjustments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change will affect all agricultural areas over the coming years; however, this effect will not be equally distributed spatially or temporally. Increasing temperatures of 2-3°C over the next 40 years will expose plants to higher temperatures throughout their life cycle and also increase the a...

  16. Diverse views on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garrett, Timothy; Dubey, Manvendra; Schwartz, Stephen

    2012-04-01

    Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change; Santa Fe, New Mexico, 30 October to 4 November 2011 At the Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change, hosted by the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Center for Nonlinear Studies, researchers offered some of the latest thinking on how to observe and model the driving forces as well as the impacts of regional and global climate change, climate system responses, and societal impacts. It was the third in a series of conferences held at 5-year intervals. More than 140 climate science experts from the United States and foreign universities and research centers attended the conference, held at the La Fonda Hotel in historic downtown Santa Fe. The conference program included more than 80 invited and contributed oral presentations and about 30 posters. The oral sessions were grouped by topic into sessions of four or five talks, with discussion occurring at the end of each session

  17. Climatic change on Mars.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sagan, C.; Toon, O. B.; Gierasch, P. J.

    1973-01-01

    It is pointed out that Mars is the only known planet with a major atmospheric constituent condensable at typical surface temperatures. The temperatures range from 290 K at equatorial noon to a temperature at the cold pole of 145 K in polar winter. There may be three different periods of climatic variation on Mars. Aspects of reversible climatic instability might possibly explain the channels and other features suggestive of the extensive occurrence of liquid water on Mars. An aqueous epoch on Mars would have important biological and other geological implications. Putative Martian organisms which flourish in the aqueous epoch may now be in cryptobiotic repose.

  18. Climate change, wine, and conservation.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

    2013-04-23

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

  19. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    PubMed Central

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A.; Hijmans, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

  20. Basic science of climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Maskell, K.; Callander, B.A. ); Mintzer, I.M. )

    1993-10-23

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are enhancing the natural greenhouse effect. There is almost universal agreement in the scientific community that this will lead to a warming of the lower atmosphere and of the earth's surface. However, the exact timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of this future warming are very uncertain. Merely taking account of changes in the global mean climate is not enough, especially when considering the impacts of climate change. Man also have to consider the rate and regional distribution of climate change and changes in the frequency of events. An increase in the frequency of extremes, such as droughts and storms, and rapid climate change are two factors which could have dramatic effects on human society and natural ecosystems. However, systems already under stress or close to their climate limits are likely to experience the greatest difficulty in adapting to change. Although human activity has been increasing greenhouse gas concentrations for a hundred years, man cannot yet detect unequivocally a greenhouse gas induced signal in climate records. However, increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are almost bound to continue and are likely to emerge as the dominant perturbation of the earth's climate in the coming decades.

  1. Ground water and climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food secu¬rity will probably intensify under climate chan...

  2. Life on a Changing Edge: Arctic-Alpine Plants at the Edges of Permanent Snowfields that are Receding Due to Climate Change at Glacier National Park

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apple, M. E.; Martin, A. C.; Moritz, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    Glaciers and snowfields are intrinsic parts of many alpine landscapes but they are retreating rapidly at Glacier National Park in Montana, USA. Plants that inhabit the edges of glaciers and snowfields are vulnerable to habitat changes wrought by the recession of these frozen bodies. Snowfields provide plants with frost protection in the winter and water in the form of melting snow during the summer. However, changes in snowfield and glacial edges may leave plants exposed to frost in the winter and subjected to water stress in the summer, which would likely have an impact on important processes, including emergence from the soil, leaf expansion, root growth, flowering, seed germination, seedling establishment, photosynthesis, and transpiration. Because these processes influence the survival of plants, responses of snowfield plants to changing edges will likely result in changes in species abundance, distribution and diversity, which will in turn influence community composition. In summer 2012, we initiated a study of Glacier National Park's snowfield plants by establishing 2m2 plots at geospatially referenced 50m transects extending outwards from the toe and perpendicularly outward from the lateral edges of currently permanent snowfields at Siyeh Pass, Piegan Pass, and Preston Park, with an additional 100m transect extending from an impermanent snowfield to treeline at Mt. Clements near Logan Pass. We constructed species lists and determined percent cover for each species in each 2m2 plot, and used high resolution photographs of each plot as records and for fine scale determinations of species presence and location. In addition, we searched for rare arctic-alpine plants which, due to their rarity, may be especially vulnerable to changes in snowfields and glaciers. Two species of rare arctic-alpine plants, Tofieldia pusilla and Pinguicula vulgaris, were found near snowmelt-fed springs, rivulets, and tarns but were not found adjacent to the snowfields. Thus, they may rely indirectly on the snowfields for at least part of their water supply. The baseline study provides us with current knowledge of the snowfield plants. Ideally, the plots will be expanded on and monitored in the future to detect changes in the distribution, abundance, and diversity of these plants and their communities in the context of determining and explaining the influences on alpine plant ecology of the recession of permanent snowfields and glaciers.

  3. Responses of carbon dioxide flux and plant biomass to water table drawdown in a treed peatland in northern Alberta: a climate change perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munir, T. M.; Xu, B.; Perkins, M.; Strack, M.

    2014-02-01

    Northern peatland ecosystems represent large carbon (C) stocks that are susceptible to changes such as accelerated mineralization due to water table lowering expected under a climate change scenario. During the growing seasons (1 May to 31 October) of 2011 and 2012 we monitored CO2 fluxes and plant biomass along a microtopographic gradient (hummocks-hollows) in an undisturbed dry continental boreal treed bog (control) and a nearby site that was drained (drained) in 2001. Ten years of drainage in the bog significantly increased coverage of shrubs at hummocks and lichens at hollows. Considering measured hummock coverage and including tree incremental growth, we estimate that the control site was a sink of -92 in 2011 and -70 g C m-2 in 2012, while the drained site was a source of 27 and 23 g C m-2 over the same years. We infer that, drainage-induced changes in vegetation growth led to increased biomass to counteract a portion of soil carbon losses. These results suggest that spatial variability (microtopography) and changes in vegetation community in boreal peatlands will affect how these ecosystems respond to lowered water table potentially induced by climate change.

  4. Natural and anthropogenic climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Ko, M.K.W.; Clough, S.A.; Molnar, G.I.; Iacono, M. ); Wang, W.C. State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY . Atmospheric Sciences Research Center)

    1992-03-01

    This report consists of two parts: (1) progress for the period 9/1/91--3/31/92 and (2) the plan for the remaining period 4/1/92--8/31/92. The project includes two tasks: atmospheric radiation and improvement of climate models to evaluate the climatic effects of radiation changes. The atmospheric radiation task includes four subtasks: (1) Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM), (2) analysis of the water vapor continuum using line-by-line calculations to develop a parameterization for use in climate models, (3) parameterization of longwave radiation and (4) climate/radiation interactions of desert aerosols. Our effort in this period is focused on the first three subtasks. The improvement of climate models to evaluate the subtasks: (1) general circulation model study and (2) 2- D model development and application.

  5. Impacts of climate change on Ontario`s forests. Forest research information paper number 143

    SciTech Connect

    Buse, L.J.; Colombo, S.J.

    1998-12-31

    Reviews literature concerning the effects of global climate change on forest plants and communities, and provides opinions on the potential impacts that climate change may have on Ontario forests. Sections of the review discuss the following: The climate of Ontario in the 21st century as predicted by climate models; forest hydrology in relation to climate change; insects and climate change; impacts on fungi in the forest ecosystem; impacts on forest fires and their management; plant physiological responses; genetic implications of climate change; forest vegetation dynamics; the use of models in global climate change studies; and forest management responses to climate change.

  6. Cities lead on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  7. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  8. Linking climate change and groundwater

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Projected global change includes groundwater systems, which are linked with changes in climate over space and time. Consequently, global change affects key aspects of subsurface hydrology (including soil water, deeper vadose zone water, and unconfined and confined aquifer waters), surface-groundwat...

  9. Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

    SciTech Connect

    Melillo, Jerry M.

    2014-04-30

    The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and consideration of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.

  10. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

  11. Climate change and avian influenza

    PubMed Central

    Slingenbergh, J.; Xiao, X.

    2009-01-01

    Summary This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in water bird populations will continue with endless adaptation and evolution. In domestic poultry, too little is known about the direct effect of environmental factors on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission and persistence to allow inference about the possible effect of climate change. However, possible indirect links through changes in the distribution of duck-crop farming are discussed. PMID:18819672

  12. Climate change and avian influenza.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, M; Slingenbergh, J; Xiao, X

    2008-08-01

    This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in water bird populations will continue with endless adaptation and evolution. In domestic poultry, too little is known about the direct effect of environmental factors on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission and persistence to allow inference about the possible effect of climate change. However, possible indirect links through changes in the distribution of duck-crop farming are discussed. PMID:18819672

  13. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  14. Climate change influence on catchment sediment yield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rulli, Maria Cristina; Grossi, Giovanna

    2010-05-01

    The effects of a change in climate are expected to be recognizable in many environmental aspects even at small spatial scales: atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, air temperature, precipitation pattern (days of snowfall translate in days of rainfall), rainfall intensity and erosivity. As a consequence, strong modifications may affect the rate of evapo-transpiration, infiltration and plant biomass production, but also of the soil erosion. To which extent climate change may affect runoff production, soil erosion and sediment transport in upland catchments is investigated here by combining data of long term precipitation, sediment yield and future climate change provided by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with a spatially distributed modeling approach to flow generation and surface erosion. The model accounts for changes in the structure and properties of soil and vegetation cover by combining the tube-flux approach to the topographic watershed partitioning through a parsimonious parametrization of the main hydrological processes. This model is used to predict hydrological and sediment fluxes for three small catchments in Saint Gabriel mountains of Southern California under control and climate change conditions. Simulation runs using a 45 years long record of hourly precipitation, both observed and referred to a future scenario, show that climate change may induce a significant modification in the catchment response to storms, with major effects on erosion and flood flows.

  15. Shifting seasons, climate change and ecosystem consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thackeray, Stephen; Henrys, Peter; Hemming, Deborah; Huntingford, Chris; Bell, James; Leech, David; Wanless, Sarah

    2014-05-01

    In recent decades, the seasonal timing of many biological events (e.g. flowering, breeding, migration) has shifted. These phenological changes are believed to be one of the most conspicuous biological indicators of climate change. Rates and directions of phenological change have differed markedly among species, potentially threatening the seasonal synchrony of key species interactions and ultimately ecosystem functioning. Differences in phenological change among-species at different trophic levels, and with respect to other broad species traits, are likely to be driven by variations in the climatic sensitivity of phenological events. However, as yet, inconsistencies in analytical methods have hampered broad-scale assessments of variation in climate sensitivity among taxonomic and functional groups of organisms. In this presentation, results will be presented from a current collaborative project (http://www.ceh.ac.uk/sci_programmes/shifting-seasons-uk.html) in which many UK long-term data sets are being integrated in order to assess relationships between temperature/precipitation, and the timing of seasonal events for a wide range of plants and animals. Our aim is to assess which organism groups (in which locations/habitats) are most sensitive to climate. Furthermore, the role of anthropogenic climate change as a driver of phenological change is being assessed.

  16. Experimenting with Climate Change

    Hilda Smith, biological technician with Canyonlands Research Station, monitors changes in biological soil crusts in response to experimental increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns....

  17. Conservation practices and their potential to mitigate climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The resilience of agricultural systems to climate change is dependent on the ability of the soil to capture and supply water to the plant at critical times in order to overcome the potential negative impacts of rising temperature. Climate change will occur as not only changes in the mean values of t...

  18. Climate change and food security

    PubMed Central

    Gregory, P.J; Ingram, J.S.I; Brklacich, M

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change. PMID:16433099

  19. Climate change and food security.

    PubMed

    Gregory, P J; Ingram, J S I; Brklacich, M

    2005-11-29

    Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change. PMID:16433099

  20. Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

    PubMed

    Urban, Mark C

    2015-05-01

    Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. PMID:25931559

  1. CLIMATE CHANGE. Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Jeremy T; Pindar, Alana; Galpern, Paul; Packer, Laurence; Potts, Simon G; Roberts, Stuart M; Rasmont, Pierre; Schweiger, Oliver; Colla, Sheila R; Richardson, Leif L; Wagner, David L; Gall, Lawrence F; Sikes, Derek S; Pantoja, Alberto

    2015-07-10

    For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we tested for climate change-related range shifts in bumblebee species across the full extents of their latitudinal and thermal limits and movements along elevation gradients. We found cross-continentally consistent trends in failures to track warming through time at species' northern range limits, range losses from southern range limits, and shifts to higher elevations among southern species. These effects are independent of changing land uses or pesticide applications and underscore the need to test for climate impacts at both leading and trailing latitudinal and thermal limits for species. PMID:26160945

  2. Urban sites in climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Früh, B.; Kossmann, M.

    2010-09-01

    For the 21st century a significant rise of near surface air temperature is expected from IPCC global climate model simulations. The additional heat load associated with this warming will especially affect cities since it adds to the well-known urban heat island effect. With already more than half of the world's population living in cities and continuing urbanization highly expected, managing urban heat load will become even more important in future. To support urban planners in their effort to maintain or improve the quality of living in their city, detailed information on future urban climate on the residential scale is required. To pursue this question the 'Umweltamt der Stadt Frankfurt am Main' and the 'Deutscher Wetterdienst' (DWD, German Meteorological Service) built a cooperation. This contribution presents estimates of the impact of climate change on the heat load in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, using the urban scale climate model MUKLIMO3 and climate projections from different regional climate models for the region of Frankfurt. Ten different building structures were considered to realistically represent the spatial variability of the urban environment. The evaluation procedure combines the urban climate model simulations and the regional climate projections to calculate several heat load indices based on the exceedance of a temperature threshold. An evaluation of MUKLIMO3 results is carried out for the time period 1971 - 2000. The range of potential future heat load in Frankfurt is statistically analyzed using an ensemble of four different regional climate projections. Future work will examine the options of urban planning to mitigate the enhanced heat load expected from climate change.

  3. Climate change impacts on forestry

    PubMed Central

    Kirilenko, Andrei P.; Sedjo, Roger A.

    2007-01-01

    Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. Our review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. We concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand. PMID:18077403

  4. Climate change impacts on forestry

    SciTech Connect

    Kirilenko, A.P.; Sedjo, R.A.

    2007-12-11

    Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. The authors' review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. They concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand.

  5. Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

    2012-04-01

    At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

  6. Indigenous health and climate change.

    PubMed

    Ford, James D

    2012-07-01

    Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global-local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research. PMID:22594718

  7. Climate change: State of knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    1997-12-31

    Burning coal, oil and natural gas to heat our homes, power our cars, and illuminate our cities produces carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases as by-products. Deforestation and clearing of land for agriculture also release significant quantities of such gases. Records of past climate going as far back as 160,000 years indicate a close correlation between the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and global temperatures. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that global temperatures will rise as atmospheric concentrations of CO2 increase. As the risks of global climate change become increasingly apparent, there is a genuine need to focus on actions to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and minimize the adverse impacts of a changing climate.

  8. Indigenous Health and Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global–local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research. PMID:22594718

  9. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  10. Invasive species and climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2006-01-01

    Invasive species challenge managers in their work of conserving and managing natural areas and are one of the most serious problems these managers face. Because invasive species are likely to spread in response to changes in climate, managers may need to change their approaches to invasive species management accordingly.

  11. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do

  12. FY 2002 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    PRA Goal 6: Reducing Global and Transboundary Environmental Risks

    Objective 6.2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Sub-Objective 6.2.3: Global Climate Change Research

    Activity F55 - Assessing the Consequences of Global Change on Ecosystem Health

    NRMRL

    R...

  13. Western water and climate change.

    PubMed

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels. PMID:26910940

  14. Phenology of species interactions in response to climate change: two case studies of plant-pollinator interactions using long-term data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKinney, A. M.; Inouye, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change may alter the temporal overlap among interacting taxa with potential demographic consequences. Evidence of mistimed interactions in response to climate change, especially between plants and pollinators, is mixed, and few long-term datasets exist to test for changes in synchrony. Furthermore, advancements in flowering driven by climate change are especially pronounced at higher latitudes, so that migratory pollinators from lower latitudes may increasingly arrive at breeding grounds after the appearance of floral resources. We explored long-term shifts in phenological synchrony in two plant-pollinator systems:1) syrphid fly and flowering phenology in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA (1992-2011) and 2) hummingbird arrival relative to onset of early-season nectar resources in the Colorado Rocky Mountains (1975-2011) and the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona, USA (1984-2010). We investigated the abiotic cues associated with the phenology of the activity period of syrphid flies and their floral resources, including degree days above freezing, precipitation, and timing of snowmelt as potential explanatory variables. Timing of snowmelt was the best predictor of the onset of flowering and syrphid emergence. Snowmelt was also the best predictor of the end of flowering, while temperature and precipitation best predicted the end of the syrphid period. Both the onset and end of flowering advanced more rapidly than syrphids in response to earlier snowmelt. These different rates of phenological advancement resulted in increased temporal overlap between the flower and syrphid community in years of early snowmelt, because of longer flowering and fly activity periods during these years. If snowmelt continues to advance, temporal overlap between syrphids and their floral resources is therefore likely to increase. This case study shows that the phenology of interacting taxa may respond differently to climate cues, but that this does not necessarily lead to phenological mismatch. To explore the hypothesis that changes in phenological synchrony will occur at the northern edge of the breeding range of migratory pollinators, we compared dates of first arrival of Broad-tailed Hummingbirds (Selasphorus platycercus) to dates of flowering of plants they visit for nectar. Near the southern limit of the breeding range, neither hummingbird arrival nor first flowering dates have changed significantly over the past few decades. Near the northern limit of the breeding range, first and peak flowering of early-season food plants have shifted to earlier dates, resulting in a shorter interval between appearance of first hummingbirds and first flowers. If phenological shifts continue at current rates, hummingbirds will eventually arrive at northern breeding grounds after flowering begins, which could reduce their nesting success. This problem could be compounded by a mid-season drop in flower availability that is appearing as the growing season starts earlier. These results support the prediction that migratory species may experience the greatest phenological mismatches at the poleward limits of their migration. A novel hypothesis based on these results posits that the poleward limit for some species may contract toward lower latitudes under continued warming.

  15. Double Exposure: Photographing Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnold, D. P.; Wake, C. P.; Romanow, G. B.

    2008-12-01

    Double Exposure, Photographing Climate Change, is a fine-art photography exhibition that examines climate change through the prism of melting glaciers. The photographs are twinned shots of glaciers, taken in the mid-20th century by world-renowned photographer Brad Washburn, and in the past two years by Boston journalist/photographer David Arnold. Arnold flew in Washburn's aerial "footprints", replicating stunning black and white photographs, and documenting one irreversible aspect of climate change. Double Exposure is art with a purpose. It is designed to educate, alarm and inspire its audiences. Its power lies in its beauty and the shocking changes it has captured through a camera lens. The interpretive text, guided by numerous experts in the fields of glaciology, global warming and geology, helps convey the message that climate change has already forced permanent changes on the face of our planet. The traveling exhibit premiered at Boston's Museum of Science in April and is now criss-crossing the nation. The exhibit covers changes in the 15 glaciers that have been photographed as well as related information about global warming's effect on the planet today.

  16. Changing the intellectual climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castree, Noel; Adams, William M.; Barry, John; Brockington, Daniel; Büscher, Bram; Corbera, Esteve; Demeritt, David; Duffy, Rosaleen; Felt, Ulrike; Neves, Katja; Newell, Peter; Pellizzoni, Luigi; Rigby, Kate; Robbins, Paul; Robin, Libby; Rose, Deborah Bird; Ross, Andrew; Schlosberg, David; Sörlin, Sverker; West, Paige; Whitehead, Mark; Wynne, Brian

    2014-09-01

    Calls for more broad-based, integrated, useful knowledge now abound in the world of global environmental change science. They evidence many scientists' desire to help humanity confront the momentous biophysical implications of its own actions. But they also reveal a limited conception of social science and virtually ignore the humanities. They thereby endorse a stunted conception of 'human dimensions' at a time when the challenges posed by global environmental change are increasing in magnitude, scale and scope. Here, we make the case for a richer conception predicated on broader intellectual engagement and identify some preconditions for its practical fulfilment. Interdisciplinary dialogue, we suggest, should engender plural representations of Earth's present and future that are reflective of divergent human values and aspirations. In turn, this might insure publics and decision-makers against overly narrow conceptions of what is possible and desirable as they consider the profound questions raised by global environmental change.

  17. The Climates of Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Renaud, Harriet

    There is increasing evidence that significant personality changes take place during adolescence and early adulthood. Among 10,000 high school seniors tested, the group intending to go to college differed in ability, socioeconomic background, parental encouragement, academic motivation and attitudes from those going on to jobs or homemaking.…

  18. Renewable Energy and Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Chum, H. L.

    2012-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) at http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/ (May 2011 electronic version; printed form ISBN 978-1-107-60710-1, 2012). More than 130 scientists contributed to the report.* The SRREN assessed existing literature on the future potential of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change within a portfolio of mitigation options including energy conservation and efficiency, fossil fuel switching, RE, nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS). It covers the six most important renewable energy technologies - bioenergy, direct solar, geothermal, hydropower, ocean and wind, as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It also takes into consideration the environmental and social consequences associated with these technologies, the cost and strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion.

  19. Climate change and game theory.

    PubMed

    Wood, Peter John

    2011-02-01

    This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely. PMID:21332497

  20. Climatic change on Mars and Earth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toon, O. B.; Sagan, C.; Gierasch, P. J.; Pollack, J. B.

    1975-01-01

    Work on climatic changes of Mars is reviewed and related to terrestrial problems. In particular the dust storms of Mars are discussed since these represent the only global climatic change which has been scientifically observed. The channels of Mars have provoked studies of climatic change and these are summarized together with polar laminae as a climatic change indicator.

  1. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    PubMed

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people. PMID:26920851

  2. [Climate changes caused by man].

    PubMed

    Kaas, Eigil

    2009-10-26

    This article provides a brief overview over some of the main findings in the most recent IPCC WG I report and in articles published after the report. It is argued that the conclusions in the report on observed climate variations and trends during the last 100 years have been largely confirmed or even reinforced by the most recent studies. Concerning future climate change, new analyses of possible changes in sea-level, which take melting land ice into account, indicate that the global sea level may rise as much as one meter within the present century. PMID:19857392

  3. Public Engagement on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, J.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change communication is complicated by complexity of the scientific problem, multiple perspectives on the magnitude of the risk from climate change, often acrimonious disputes between scientists, high stakes policy options, and overall politicization of the issue. Efforts to increase science literacy as a route towards persuasion around the need for a policy like cap and trade have failed, because the difficulty that a scientist has in attempting to make sense of the social and political complexity is very similar to the complexity facing the general public as they try to make sense of climate science itself. In this talk I argue for a shift from scientists and their institutions as information disseminators to that of public engagement and enablers of public participation. The goal of engagement is not just to inform, but to enable, motivate and educate the public regarding the technical, political, and social dimensions of climate change. Engagement is a two-way process where experts and decision-makers seek input and learn from the public about preferences, needs, insights, and ideas relative to climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, solutions and policy options. Effective public engagement requires that scientists detach themselves from trying to control what the public does with the acquired knowledge and motivation. The goal should not be to "sell" the public on particular climate change solutions, since such advocacy threatens public trust in scientists and their institutions. Conduits for public engagement include the civic engagement approach in the context of community meetings, and perhaps more significantly, the blogosphere. Since 2006, I have been an active participant in the climate blogosphere, focused on engaging with people that are skeptical of AGW. A year ago, I started my own blog Climate Etc. at judithcurry.com. The demographic that I have focused my communication/engagement activities are the technically educated and scientifically literate public, many of whom have become increasingly skeptical of climate science the more they investigate the topic. Specific issues that this group has with climate science include concerns that science that cannot easily be separated from risk assessment and value judgments; concern that assessments (e.g. IPCC) have become a Maxwell's daemon for climate research; inadequate assessment of our ignorance of this complex scientific issue; elite scientists and scientific institutions losing credibility with the public; political exploitation of the public's lack of understanding; and concerns about the lack of public accountability of climate science and climate models that are being used as the basis for far reaching decisions and policies. Individuals in this group have the technical ability to understand and examine climate science arguments and are not prepared to cede judgment on this issue to the designated and self-proclaimed experts. This talk will describe my experiences in engaging with this group and what has been learned, both by myself and by participants in the discussion at Climate Etc.

  4. The Climate Change--Social Change Relationship.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russell, David

    1992-01-01

    Argues that the scientific community cannot evoke the desired response from the general community concerning environmental problems, such as climate change, simply by warning the community of its dangers. Discusses the need for new meaning systems arising out of new ways of relating and communicating with each other about our ecology. (MDH)

  5. The origin of climate changes.

    PubMed

    Delecluse, P

    2008-08-01

    Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world. PMID:18819661

  6. AEROSOL, CLOUDS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect

    SCHWARTZ, S.E.

    2005-09-01

    Earth's climate is thought to be quite sensitive to changes in radiative fluxes that are quite small in absolute magnitude, a few watts per square meter, and in relation to these fluxes in the natural climate. Atmospheric aerosol particles exert influence on climate directly, by scattering and absorbing radiation, and indirectly by modifying the microphysical properties of clouds and in turn their radiative effects and hydrology. The forcing of climate change by these indirect effects is thought to be quite substantial relative to forcing by incremental concentrations of greenhouse gases, but highly uncertain. Quantification of aerosol indirect forcing by satellite- or ground-based remote sensing has proved quite difficult in view of inherent large variation in the pertinent observables such as cloud optical depth, which is controlled mainly by liquid water path and only secondarily by aerosols. Limited work has shown instances of large magnitude of aerosol indirect forcing, with local instantaneous forcing upwards of 50 W m{sup 66}-2. Ultimately it will be necessary to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models to accurately identify the anthropogenic forcing at present and over secular time and to assess the influence of this forcing in the context of other forcings of climate change. While the elements of aerosol processes that must be represented in models describing the evolution and properties of aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation particles are known, many important components of these processes remain to be understood and to be represented in models, and the models evaluated against observation, before such model-based representations can confidently be used to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models.

  7. Effects of climate change on southeastern forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harcombe, Paul A.

    1997-01-01

    Forests of the coastal plain region of the southeastern United States are among the most productive in North America. Because they form the basis of a large timber and wood products industry, these forests are of considerable economic importance. Also, the forests are rich in plant and animal species. Because they are diverse as well as productive, they have considerable conservation importance. Therefore, understanding potential impacts of climate change on southern forests is critical.

  8. Tracking seasonal signs of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    On 2 March, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN), a consortium of government, academic, and citizen scientists, launched a national program for volunteers to help observe the seasonal cycles of plants, including flowering, fruiting, and other seasonal events. The program will begin monitoring animals in 2010. Scientists and resource managers will use these observations to track effects of climate change on Earth's life-support systems.

  9. Stratospheric aerosols and climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baldwin, B.; Pollack, J. B.; Summers, A.; Toon, O. B.; Sagan, C.; Van Camp, W.

    1976-01-01

    Generated primarily by volcanic explosions, a layer of submicron silicate particles and particles made of concentrated sulfuric acids solution is present in the stratosphere. Flights through the stratosphere may be a future source of stratospheric aerosols, since the effluent from supersonic transports contains sulfurous gases (which will be converted to H2SO4) while the exhaust from Space Shuttles contains tiny aluminum oxide particles. Global heat balance calculations have shown that the stratospheric aerosols have made important contributions to some climatic changes. In the present paper, accurate radiative transfer calculations of the globally-averaged surface temperature (T) are carried out to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to changes in the number of stratospheric aerosols. The results obtained for a specified model atmosphere, including a vertical profile of the aerosols, indicate that the climate is unlikely to be affected by supersonic transports and Space Shuttles, during the next decades.

  10. The Atlantic Climate Change Program

    SciTech Connect

    Molinari, R.L. ); Battisti, D. ); Bryan, K. ); Walsh, J. )

    1994-07-01

    The Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) is a component of NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program. ACCP is directed at determining the role of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean on global atmospheric climate. Efforts and progress in four ACCP elements are described. Advances include (1) descriptions of decadal and longer-term variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system of the North Atlantic; (2) development of tools needed to perform long-term model runs of coupled simulations of North Atlantic air-sea interaction; (3) definition of mean and time-dependent characteristics of the thermohaline circulation; and (4) development of monitoring strategies for various elements of the thermohaline circulation. 20 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Solar Changes and Climate Changes. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feynman, J.

    2009-12-01

    During the early decades of the Space Age there was general agreement in the scientific community on two facts: (1) sunspot cycles continued without interruption; (2) decadal timescale variations in the solar output has no effect on Earth’s climate. Then in 1976 Jack Eddy published a paper called ‘The Maunder Minimum” in Science magazine arguing that neither of these two established facts was true. He reviewed the observations from the 17th century that show the Sun did not appear to cycle for several decades and he related that to the cold winters in Northern Europe at that time. The paper has caused three decades of hot discussions. When Jack Eddy died on June 10th of this year the arguments were sill going on, and there were no sunspots that day. The Sun was in the longest and deepest solar minimum since 1900. In this talk I will describe the changes in the solar output that have taken place over the last few decades and put them in their historical context. I will also review recent work on the influence of decadal and century scale solar variations on the Earth’s climate. It is clear that this long, deep “solar minimum” is an opportunity to make fundamental progress on our understanding of the solar dynamo and to separate climate change due to the Sun from anthropogenic climate change.

  12. Climatic Change and Human Evolution.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garratt, John R.

    1995-01-01

    Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)

  13. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  14. Conservation practices for climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change presents a major challenge to sustainable land management (USDA NRCS 2010). Several reports have reported that over the last few decades rainfall intensities have also increased in many parts of the world, including in the United States. Without good productive soils and the ecosyste...

  15. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy

  16. CLIMATE CHANGE AND N DEPOSITION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This project investigates the potential influence of climate change on wet deposition of reduced nitrogen across the U.S. The concentration of ammonium-nitrogen in precipitation is known to increase with temperature, owing to temperature dependent ammonia source strengths (natur...

  17. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy…

  18. Media power and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, Julia B.

    2015-04-01

    Fingers are often pointed directly at the news media for their powerful influence and ineffective reporting of climate change. But is that the best place to point? And are there more effective ways to conceptualize the power of the media and to consider whom they serve?

  19. Climate change primer for respirologists.

    PubMed

    Takaro, Tim K; Henderson, Sarah B

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is already affecting the cardiorespiratory health of populations around the world, and these impacts are expected to increase. The present overview serves as a primer for respirologists who are concerned about how these profound environmental changes may affect their patients. The authors consider recent peer-reviewed literature with a focus on climate interactions with air pollution. They do not discuss in detail cardiorespiratory health effects for which the potential link to climate change is poorly understood. For example, pneumonia and influenza, which affect >500 million people per year, are not addressed, although clear seasonal variation suggests climate-related effects. Additionally, large global health impacts in low-resource countries, including migration precipitated by environmental change, are omitted. The major cardiorespiratory health impacts addressed are due to heat, air pollution and wildfires, shifts in allergens and infectious diseases along with respiratory impacts from flooding. Personal and societal choices about carbon use and fossil energy infrastructure should be informed by their impacts on health, and respirologists can play an important role in this discussion. PMID:25664458

  20. Global Climate Change Interaction Web.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortner, Rosanne W.

    1998-01-01

    Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

  1. Climate change - creating watershed resilience

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is likely to intensify the circulation of water, which will shift spatial and temporal availability of snowmelt and runoff. In addition, drought and floods are likely to be more frequent, severe and widespread. Higher air temperatures will lead to higher ocean temperatures, elevating ...

  2. Climate change and trace gases.

    PubMed

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

    2007-07-15

    Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment. PMID:17513270

  3. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be combined in various ways to comprise focused, lively, accurate primers to what we all need to know about climate change. With college classrooms as our intended venue, we are looking at such topics as why the weather in your backyard tells you nothing about global climate change-but a good deal about climate; how tiny molecules warm the planet; how snowpack, drought, bark beetles, fire suppression, and wildfire interact as stress complexes; why (and where) women, children, and the poor are especially vulnerable to harm from climate change; what international policy negotiators argue about; what poets and artists can contribute to understanding and solving the climate problem; and why ecologists are worried about changes in the seasonal timing of natural events. We will describe what we have done and how we did it; offer a few tips to others who might wish to do something similar; and introduce our website.

  4. Climate change and intertidal wetlands.

    PubMed

    Ross, Pauline M; Adam, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause-the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the "squeeze" experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change. PMID:24832670

  5. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    PubMed Central

    Ross, Pauline M.; Adam, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change. PMID:24832670

  6. Coal in a changing climate

    SciTech Connect

    Lashof, D.A.; Delano, D.; Devine, J.

    2007-02-15

    The NRDC analysis examines the changing climate for coal production and use in the United States and China, the world's two largest producers and consumers of coal. The authors say that the current coal fuel cycle is among the most destructive activities on earth, placing an unacceptable burden on public health and the environment. There is no such thing as 'clean coal.' Our highest priorities must be to avoid increased reliance on coal and to accelerate the transition to an energy future based on efficient use of renewable resources. Energy efficiency and renewable energy resources are technically capable of meeting the demands for energy services in countries that rely on coal. However, more than 500 conventional coal-fired power plants are expected in China in the next eight years alone, and more than 100 are under development in the United States. Because it is very likely that significant coal use will continue during the transition to renewables, it is important that we also take the necessary steps to minimize the destructive effects of coal use. That requires the U.S. and China to take steps now to end destructive mining practices and to apply state of the art pollution controls, including CO{sub 2} control systems, to sources that use coal. Contents of the report are: Introduction; Background (Coal Production; Coal Use); The Toll from Coal (Environmental Effects of Coal Production; Environmental Effects of Coal Transportation); Environmental Effects of Coal Use (Air Pollutants; Other Pollutants; Environmental Effects of Coal Use in China); What Is the Future for Coal? (Reducing Fossil Fuel Dependence; Reducing the Impacts of Coal Production; Reducing Damage From Coal Use; Global Warming and Coal); and Conclusion. 2 tabs.

  7. Sundangrass reproductive biomass responses under climate change scenarios in oak savannah and mesic prairie mesocosm communities

    EPA Science Inventory

    Potential climate change effects include shifts in the distribution of plant species and changes in reproductive output. We tested the hypothesis that environmental stressors such as elevated temperature and drought that are associated with climate change would increase the repr...

  8. Risk management and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunreuther, Howard; Heal, Geoffrey; Allen, Myles; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Field, Christopher B.; Yohe, Gary

    2013-05-01

    The selection of climate policies should be an exercise in risk management reflecting the many relevant sources of uncertainty. Studies of climate change and its impacts rarely yield consensus on the distribution of exposure, vulnerability or possible outcomes. Hence policy analysis cannot effectively evaluate alternatives using standard approaches, such as expected utility theory and benefit-cost analysis. This Perspective highlights the value of robust decision-making tools designed for situations such as evaluating climate policies, where consensus on probability distributions is not available and stakeholders differ in their degree of risk tolerance. A broader risk-management approach enables a range of possible outcomes to be examined, as well as the uncertainty surrounding their likelihoods.

  9. Surface Ozone and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzales, K.; Barnes, E. A.

    2013-12-01

    Surface ozone pollution will continue to be a concern in the coming decades as the effects of climate change couple with changing emissions to influence air quality. We analyze modeled surface ozone's seasonal cycle variability, long-term variability, and its correlation to atmospheric circulation using output from the GFDL coupled chemistry climate model (CM3) from CMIP5. We analyze the relationship between the jet stream and both ozone variability and mean ozone over the North Pacific. We also determine if ozone's seasonal cycle will shift in the future on a worldwide scale. We focus on surface ozone and 500mb zonal winds in order to analyze the large-scale circulation effects from 2006 to 2100. CMIP5 contains varying representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and we use three-member RCPs 4.5 and 4.5*, which are identical save the fact that 4.5* have fixed amounts of aerosols and ozone precursors at 2005 levels. The use of both 4.5 and 4.5* allows us to see effects due to changing emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx and which are due to climate change. Jet speed is found to correlate well with the maximum amount of decadal mean ozone in both 4.5 and 4.5* in the Pacific region. In addition, ozone's seasonal cycle across the globe peaks earlier in the year due to climate change alone, while decreasing emissions of ozone precursors is found to alter the amplitude of the cycle over industrial continental areas, causing the day of maximum ozone to occur months earlier long-term. The seasonal cycle change in 4.5* appears to be connected to the jet stream over the Pacific.

  10. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested. PMID:18991898

  11. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    PubMed

    Hansen, J; Sato, M; Glascoe, J; Ruedy, R

    1998-04-14

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios. PMID:9539699

  12. A common-sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably?

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Glascoe, Jay; Ruedy, Reto

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than “business-as-usual” scenarios. PMID:9539699

  13. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Glascoe, J.; Ruedy, R.

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  14. Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brevik, Eric C.

    2013-04-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are expected to increase 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered by climate change (IPCC, 2007). Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Altered climate will, therefore, have an effect on soil processes and properties. Studies into the effects of climate change on soil processes and properties are still incomplete, but have revealed that climate change will impact soil organic matter dynamics including soil organisms and the multiple soil properties that are tied to organic matter, soil water, and soil erosion. The exact direction and magnitude of those impacts will be dependent on the amount of change in atmospheric gases, temperature, and precipitation amounts and patterns. Recent studies give reason to believe at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric carbon as temperatures rise; this is particularly true of high latitude regions with permanently frozen soils. Soil erosion by both wind and water is also likely to increase. These soil changes will lead to both direct and indirect impacts on human health. Possible indirect impacts include temperature extremes, food safety and air quality issues, increased and/or expanded disease incidences, and occupational health issues. Potential direct impacts include decreased food security and increased atmospheric dust levels. However, there are still many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the nitrogen cycle and, in turn, how the nitrogen cycle will affect carbon sequestration in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of soil water-CO2 level-temperature relationships. Knowledge of the response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus and how that affects soil organic matter dynamics is a critical need. There is also a great need for a better understanding of how soil organisms will respond to climate change because those organisms are incredibly important in a number of soil processes, including the carbon and nitrogen cycles. All of these questions are important in trying to understand human health impacts. More information on climate change, soils, and human health issues can be found in Brevik (2012). References Brevik, E.C. 2012. Climate change, soils, and human health. In: E.C. Brevik and L. Burgess (Eds). Soils and human health. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL. in press. IPCC. 2007. Summary for policymakers. pp. 1-18. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds). Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

  15. 1000 years of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, C.

    Solar activity has been observed to vary on decadal and centennial time scales. Recent evidence (Bond, 2002) points to a major semi-periodic variation of approximately 1,500 yrs. For this reason, and because high resolution proxy records are limited to the past thousand years or so, assessing the role of the sun's variability on climate change over this time f ame has received much attention. A pressingr application of these assessments is the attempt to separate the role of the sun from that of various anthropogenic forcings in the past century and a half. This separation is complicated by the possible existence of natural variability other than solar, and by the fact that the time-dependence of solar and anthropogenic forcings is very similar over the past hundred years or so. It has been generally assumed that solar forcing is direct, i.e. changes in sun's irradiance. However, evidence has been put forth suggesting that there exist various additional indirect forcings that could be as large as or even exceed direct forcing (modulation of cosmic ray - induced cloudiness, UV- induced stratospheric ozone change s, or oscillator -driven changes in the Pacific Ocean). Were such forcings to be large, they could account for nearly all 20th Century warming, relegating anthropogenic effects to a minor role. Determination of climate change over the last thousand years offers perhaps the best way to assess the magnitude of total solar forcing, thus allowing its comparison with that of anthropogenic sources. Perhaps the best proxy records for climate variation in the past 1,000 yrs have been variations in temperat ure sensitive tree rings (Briffa and Osborne, 2002). A paucity of such records in the Southern Hemisphere has largely limited climate change determinations to the subtropical NH. Two problems with tree rings are that the rings respond to temperature differently with the age of the tree, and record largely the warm, growing season only. It appears that both these problems have been adequately solved although caution is warranted. A promising adjunct to tree rings is actual measurement of temperatures in boreholes. Inversion of such records gives low frequency temperatures that are potentially more accurate than any proxy- derived ones. All these records give a fairly consistent picture of at least one major warming and cooling extreme (Medieval Warming Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Many modeling efforts using direct solar forcing have been done. These typically employ proxy data (sunspot number and variations in Be-10 and C -14 calibrated by satellite observations) for changes in solar forcing, and give the same general picture-- that of a substantial warming 1,000 yrs ago (MWP) followed by cooling that was particularly marked in the late 17th and early 19th centuries (LIA). The resulting amplitude of temperature change between MWP and LIA agrees well with paleo-temperature reconstructions and suggests that solar forcing alone is inadequate to account for more than about half the 20th century warming (Lean et al 1995, Crowley and Lowry 2000). Since these quantitatively reproduce climate variations in the past 1000 years, the role of indirect solar forcing is inferred to be small but may be important (Lean and Rind 2001). Gerard Bond, Bernd Kromer, Juerg Beer, Raimund Muscheler, Michael N. Evans, William Showers, Sharon Hoffmann, Rusty Lotti-Bond, Irka Hajdas, and Georges Bonani, (2001) Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene,Science 294: 2130-2136 Briffa and Osborne, (2002) Blowing Hot and Cold, Science 295, 2227-2228. Lean, J., Beer, J., and Bradley, R., (1995) Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett.., 22, 3195-3198. Crowley ,T., (2000) Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years, Science,289, 270- 277. Lean and Rind, (2001), Earth's Response to a Variable Sun, Science, 292, 234-236.

  16. Honey Bees, Satellites and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esaias, W.

    2008-05-01

    Life isn't what it used to be for honey bees in Maryland. The latest changes in their world are discussed by NASA scientist Wayne Esaias, a biological oceanographer with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. At Goddard, Esaias has examined the role of marine productivity in the global carbon cycle using visible satellite sensors. In his personal life, Esaias is a beekeeper. Lately, he has begun melding his interest in bees with his professional expertise in global climate change. Esaias has observed that the period when nectar is available in central Maryland has shifted by one month due to local climate change. He is interested in bringing the power of global satellite observations and models to bear on the important but difficult question of how climate change will impact bees and pollination. Pollination is a complex, ephemeral interaction of animals and plants with ramifications throughout terrestrial ecosystems well beyond the individual species directly involved. Pollinators have been shown to be in decline in many regions, and the nature and degree of further impacts on this key interaction due to climate change are very much open questions. Honey bee colonies are used to quantify the time of occurrence of the major interaction by monitoring their weight change. During the peak period, changes of 5-15 kg/day per colony represent an integrated response covering thousands of hectares. Volunteer observations provide a robust metric for looking at spatial and inter-annual variations due to short term climate events, complementing plant phenology networks and satellite-derived vegetation phenology data. In central Maryland, the nectar flows are advancing by about -0.6 d/y, based on a 15 yr time series and a small regional study. This is comparable to the regional advancement in the spring green-up observed with MODIS and AVHRR. The ability to link satellite vegetation phenology to honey bee forage using hive weight changes provides a basis for applying satellite-derived plant phenology and land cover data to improve estimates of the northern limits of Africanized Honey Bee invasion in North America.

  17. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore provides an opportunity for targeted proactive measures to mitigate certain classes of future civil violence events.

  18. Severe thunderstorms and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, H. E.

    2013-04-01

    As the planet warms, it is important to consider possible impacts of climate change on severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. To further that discussion, the current distribution of severe thunderstorms as a function of large-scale environmental conditions is presented. Severe thunderstorms are much more likely to form in environments with large values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-tropospheric wind shear. Tornadoes and large hail are preferred in high-shear environments and non-tornadic wind events in low shear. Further, the intensity of tornadoes and hail, given that they occur, tends to be almost entirely a function of the shear and only weakly depends on the thermodynamics. Climate model simulations suggest that CAPE will increase in the future and the wind shear will decrease. Detailed analysis has suggested that the CAPE change will lead to more frequent environments favorable for severe thunderstorms, but the strong dependence on shear for tornadoes, particularly the strongest ones, and hail means that the interpretation of how individual hazards will change is open to question. The recent development of techniques to use higher-resolution models to estimate the occurrence of storms of various kinds is discussed. Given the large interannual variability in environments and occurrence of events, caution is urged in interpreting the observational record as evidence of climate change.

  19. Implications of climate change for crop production in Japan

    SciTech Connect

    Seino, Hiroshi

    1995-12-31

    This study uses climate change scenarios derived from three global climate models (GCMs) to assess the possible impacts of climate change on rice (Oryza sativa L. japonica), maize (Zea mays L.), and wheat (Triticum spp.) production in Japan. Crop models were used to simulate the possible changes in crop yields under different climate change scenarios. Increased temperatures resulted in decreases in simulated crop yield in many regions under the present management systems. While the direct beneficial effects of CO{sub 2} may compensate for the yield decreases in central and northern Japan, the effects did not compensate for the larger yield decreases in southwestern japan, especially in Kyushu. Early planting and irrigation are possible adaptation strategies of the management systems to climate change. In most cases, simulated yields increased under climate change conditions if an earlier planting date was adopted; however, in Kyushu because of high temperature stress, an earlier planting did not improve simulated yields, and the introduction of new cultivars better adapted to the climate change conditions would be required. In Hokkaido, the major upland production area of Japan, climate change increased simulated crop yields under some conditions, depending on the scenario precipitation and irrigation systems.

  20. Convergence of terrestrial plant production across global climate gradients.

    PubMed

    Michaletz, Sean T; Cheng, Dongliang; Kerkhoff, Andrew J; Enquist, Brian J

    2014-08-01

    Variation in terrestrial net primary production (NPP) with climate is thought to originate from a direct influence of temperature and precipitation on plant metabolism. However, variation in NPP may also result from an indirect influence of climate by means of plant age, stand biomass, growing season length and local adaptation. To identify the relative importance of direct and indirect climate effects, we extend metabolic scaling theory to link hypothesized climate influences with NPP, and assess hypothesized relationships using a global compilation of ecosystem woody plant biomass and production data. Notably, age and biomass explained most of the variation in production whereas temperature and precipitation explained almost none, suggesting that climate indirectly (not directly) influences production. Furthermore, our theory shows that variation in NPP is characterized by a common scaling relationship, suggesting that global change models can incorporate the mechanisms governing this relationship to improve predictions of future ecosystem function. PMID:25043056

  1. Sensitivity and Thresholds of Ecosystems to Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peteet, D. M.; Peteet, D. M.

    2001-12-01

    Rapid vegetational change is a hallmark of past abrupt climate change, as evidenced from Younger Dryas records in Europe, eastern North America, and the Pacific North American rim. The potential response of future ecosystems to abrupt climate change is targeted, with a focus on particular changes in the hydrological cycle. The vulnerability of ecosystems is notable when particular shifts cross thresholds of precipitation and temperature, as many plants and animals are adapted to specific climatic "windows". Significant forest species compositional changes occur at ecotonal boundaries, which are often the first locations to record a climatic response. Historical forest declines have been linked to stress, and even Pleistocene extinctions have been associated with human interaction at times of rapid climatic shifts. Environmental extremes are risky for reproductive stages, and result in nonlinearities. The role of humans in association with abrupt climate change suggests that many ecosystems may cross thresholds from which they will find it difficult to recover. Sectors particularly vulnerable will be reviewed.

  2. Novel communities from climate change

    PubMed Central

    Lurgi, Miguel; López, Bernat C.; Montoya, José M.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is generating novel communities composed of new combinations of species. These result from different degrees of species adaptations to changing biotic and abiotic conditions, and from differential range shifts of species. To determine whether the responses of organisms are determined by particular species traits and how species interactions and community dynamics are likely to be disrupted is a challenge. Here, we focus on two key traits: body size and ecological specialization. We present theoretical expectations and empirical evidence on how climate change affects these traits within communities. We then explore how these traits predispose species to shift or expand their distribution ranges, and associated changes on community size structure, food web organization and dynamics. We identify three major broad changes: (i) Shift in the distribution of body sizes towards smaller sizes, (ii) dominance of generalized interactions and the loss of specialized interactions, and (iii) changes in the balance of strong and weak interaction strengths in the short term. We finally identify two major uncertainties: (i) whether large-bodied species tend to preferentially shift their ranges more than small-bodied ones, and (ii) how interaction strengths will change in the long term and in the case of newly interacting species. PMID:23007079

  3. Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin

    PubMed Central

    Bradley, Nina L.; Leopold, A. Carl; Ross, John; Huffaker, Wellington

    1999-01-01

    A phenological study of springtime events was made over a 61-year period at one site in southern Wisconsin. The records over this long period show that several phenological events have been increasing in earliness; we discuss evidence indicating that these changes reflect climate change. The mean of regressions for the 55 phenophases studied was −0.12 day per year, an overall increase in phenological earliness at this site during the period. Some phenophases have not increased in earliness, as would be expected for phenophases that are regulated by photoperiod or by a physiological signal other than local temperature. PMID:10449757

  4. Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin.

    PubMed

    Bradley, N L; Leopold, A C; Ross, J; Huffaker, W

    1999-08-17

    A phenological study of springtime events was made over a 61-year period at one site in southern Wisconsin. The records over this long period show that several phenological events have been increasing in earliness; we discuss evidence indicating that these changes reflect climate change. The mean of regressions for the 55 phenophases studied was -0.12 day per year, an overall increase in phenological earliness at this site during the period. Some phenophases have not increased in earliness, as would be expected for phenophases that are regulated by photoperiod or by a physiological signal other than local temperature. PMID:10449757

  5. Challenges and Possibilities in Climate Change Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pruneau,, Diane; Khattabi, Abdellatif; Demers, Melanie

    2010-01-01

    Educating and communicating about climate change is challenging. Researchers reported that climate change concepts are often misunderstood. Some people do not believe that climate change will have impacts on their own life. Other challenges may include people's difficulty in perceiving small or gradual environmental changes, the fact that…

  6. Climate change and Arctic parasites.

    PubMed

    Dobson, Andy; Molnár, Péter K; Kutz, Susan

    2015-05-01

    Climate is changing rapidly in the Arctic. This has important implications for parasites of Arctic ungulates, and hence for the welfare of Arctic peoples who depend on caribou, reindeer, and muskoxen for food, income, and a focus for cultural activities. In this Opinion article we briefly review recent work on the development of predictive models for the impacts of climate change on helminth parasites and other pathogens of Arctic wildlife, in the hope that such models may eventually allow proactive mitigation and conservation strategies. We describe models that have been developed using the metabolic theory of ecology. The main strength of these models is that they can be easily parameterized using basic information about the physical size of the parasite. Initial results suggest they provide important new insights that are likely to generalize to a range of host-parasite systems. PMID:25900882

  7. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Ramaswamy, V.; Boucher, Olivier; Haigh, J.; Hauglustaine, D.; Haywood, J.; Myhre, G.; Nakajima, Takahito; Shi, Guangyu; Solomon, S.; Betts, Robert E.; Charlson, R.; Chuang, C. C.; Daniel, J. S.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Feichter, J.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Forster, P. M.; Ghan, Steven J.; Jones, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lean, J.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Minschwaner, K.; Penner, Joyce E.; Roberts, D. L.; Rodhe, H.; Roelofs, G.-J.; Rotstayn, Leon D.; Schneider, T. L.; Schumann, U.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Schwartzkopf, M. D.; Shine, K. P.; Smith, Steven J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Stordal, F.; Tegen, I.; van Dorland, R.; Zhang, Y.; Srinivasan, J.; Joos, Fortunat

    2001-10-01

    Chapter 6 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Sections include: Executive Summary 6.1 Radiative Forcing 6.2 Forcing-Response Relationship 6.3 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases 6.4 Stratospheric Ozone 6.5 Radiative Forcing By Tropospheric Ozone 6.6 Indirect Forcings due to Chemistry 6.7 The Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.8 The Indirect Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.9 Stratospheric Aerosols 6.10 Land-use Change (Surface Albedo Effect) 6.11 Solar Forcing of Climate 6.12 Global Warming Potentials hydrocarbons 6.13 Global Mean Radiative Forcings 6.14 The Geographical Distribution of the Radiative Forcings 6.15 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings Appendix 6.1 Elements of Radiative Forcing Concept References.

  8. Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Laura G.; Lindsay V. Reynolds; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

  9. Climate change 'understanding' and knowledge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, L.

    2011-12-01

    Recent surveys find that many people report having "a great deal" of understanding about climate change. Self-assessed understanding does not predict opinions, however, because those with highest "understanding" tend also to be most polarized. These findings raise questions about the relationship between "understanding" and objectively-measured knowledge. In summer 2011 we included three new questions testing climate-change knowledge on a statewide survey. The multiple-choice questions address basic facts that are widely accepted by contrarian as well as mainstream scientists. They ask about trends in Arctic sea ice, in CO2 concentrations, and the meaning of "greenhouse effect." The questions say nothing about impacts, attribution or mitigation. Each has a clear and well-publicized answer that does not presume acceptance of anthropogenic change. About 30% of respondents knew all three answers, and 36% got two out of three. 34% got zero or one right. Notably, these included 31% of those who claimed to have "a great deal" of understanding. Unlike self-assessed understanding, knowledge scores do predict opinions. People who knew more were significantly more likely to agree that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. This positive relationship remains significant controlling for gender, age, education, partisanship and "understanding." It does not exhibit the interaction effects with partisanship that characterize self-assessed understanding. Following the successful statewide test, the same items were added to a nationwide survey currently underway. Analyses replicated across both surveys cast a new light on the problematic connections between "understanding," knowledge and opinions about climate science.

  10. NASA Nice Climate Change Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

    2013-12-01

    Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate change education can be beneficial to future learners and general public. The main scope is to increase the amount of STEM knowledge throughout the nations scientific literacy as we are using the platform of climate change. Federal entities which may include but not limited to National Security Agency and the Department of Homeland Security and Management will serve as resources partners for this common goal of having a more knowledgeable technological savvy and scientific literate society. The presentation will show that incorporating these best practices into elementary and early childhood education undergraduate programs will assist with increasing a enhance scientific literate society. As a measurable outcome have a positive impact on instructional effectiveness of future teachers. Their successfully preparing students in meeting the standards of the Common Core Initiative will attempt to measure across the curriculum uniformly.

  11. Mushroom fruiting and climate change.

    PubMed

    Kauserud, Håvard; Stige, Leif Christian; Vik, Jon Olav; Okland, Rune H; Høiland, Klaus; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2008-03-11

    Many species of fungi produce ephemeral autumnal fruiting bodies to spread and multiply. Despite their attraction for mushroom pickers and their economic importance, little is known about the phenology of fruiting bodies. Using approximately 34,500 dated herbarium records we analyzed changes in the autumnal fruiting date of mushrooms in Norway over the period 1940-2006. We show that the time of fruiting has changed considerably over this time period, with an average delay in fruiting since 1980 of 12.9 days. The changes differ strongly between species and groups of species. Early-fruiting species have experienced a stronger delay than late fruiters, resulting in a more compressed fruiting season. There is also a geographic trend of earlier fruiting in the northern and more continental parts of Norway than in more southern and oceanic parts. Incorporating monthly precipitation and temperature variables into the analyses provides indications that increasing temperatures during autumn and winter months bring about significant delay of fruiting both in the same year and in the subsequent year. The recent changes in autumnal mushroom phenology coincide with the extension of the growing season caused by global climate change and are likely to continue under the current climate change scenario. PMID:18310325

  12. Communicating Uncertainties on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Planton, S.

    2009-09-01

    The term of uncertainty in common language is confusing since it is related in one of its most usual sense to what cannot be known in advance or what is subject to doubt. Its definition in mathematics is unambiguous but not widely shared. It is thus difficult to communicate on this notion through media to a wide public. From its scientific basis to the impact assessment, climate change issue is subject to a large number of sources of uncertainties. In this case, the definition of the term is close to its mathematical sense, but the diversity of disciplines involved in the analysis process implies a great diversity of approaches of the notion. Faced to this diversity of approaches, the issue of communicating uncertainties on climate change is thus a great challenge. It is also complicated by the diversity of the targets of the communication on climate change, from stakeholders and policy makers to a wide public. We will present the process chosen by the IPCC in order to communicate uncertainties in its assessment reports taking the example of the guidance note to lead authors of the fourth assessment report. Concerning the communication of uncertainties to a wide public, we will give some examples aiming at illustrating how to avoid the above-mentioned ambiguity when dealing with this kind of communication.

  13. Past and Current Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  14. Engaging the Public in Climate Change Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meymaris, K. K.; Henderson, S.; Alaback, P.; Havens, K.; Schwarz Ballard, J.

    2009-12-01

    Providing opportunities for individuals to contribute to a better understanding of climate change is the hallmark of Project BudBurst (www.budburst.org). This highly successful, national citizen science program, currently finishing its third year, is bringing climate change education outreach to thousands of individuals. Project BudBurst is a national citizen science initiative designed to engage the public in observations of phenological (life cycle) events that raise awareness of climate change, and create a cadre of informed citizen scientists. Citizen science programs such as Project BudBurst provide the opportunity for students and interested laypersons to actively participate in scientific research. Such programs are important not only from an educational perspective, but because they also enable scientists to broaden the geographic and temporal scale of their observations. The goals of Project BudBurst are to 1) increase awareness of phenology as an area of scientific study; 2) Increase awareness of the impacts of changing climates on plants; and 3) increase science literacy by engaging participants in the scientific process. In anticipation of the 2010 campaign, Project BudBurst has developed and released innovative and exciting projects with a special focus in the field of phenology and climate change. The collaborations between Project BudBurst and other organizations are producing unique campaigns for engaging the public in environmental research. The special project foci include on-the-spot and in-the-field data reporting via mobile phones, an emphasis on urban tree phenology data, as well as monitoring of native gardens across the US National Wildlife Refuge System. This presentation will provide an overview of Project Budburst and the new special projects, and share results from 2007-2009. Project BudBurst is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, the Chicago Botanic Garden, and the University of Montana.

  15. OverviewClimate Change and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aronson, Richard B.

    2009-07-01

    Climate change poses a grave threat to sustainability. The first section of Sustainability2009: The Next Horizon, therefore, is devoted to Climate Change and Adaptation. Contributions focus on the historical consequences of climate change for human societies, as well as the effects of current climate change on sea level, lightning intensity, fire, the El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO), and hurricane intensity. Chapters on fisheries and coral reefs highlight the cascading effects climatic warming, rising sea level, and ocean acidification. Adaptation to climate change and its consequences will be necessary to buy time for mitigation and reversal of the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions.

  16. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can mobilize and redistribute volatile reservoirs both on and below the surface. And for Mars, these variations are large. In the past 20 My, for example, the obliquity is believed to have varied from a low of 15° to a high of 45° with a regular oscillation time scale of ~10^5 years. These variations are typically less than two degrees on the Earth. Mars, therefore, offers a natural laboratory for the study of orbitally induced climate change on a terrestrial planet. Finally, general circulation models (GCMs) for Mars have reached a level of sophistication that justifies their application to the study of spin axis/orbitally forced climate change. With recent advances in computer technology the models can run at reasonable spatial resolution for many Mars years with physics packages that include cloud microphysics, radiative transfer in scattering/absorbing atmospheres, surface heat budgets, boundary layer schemes, and a host of other processes. To be sure, the models will undergo continual improvement, but with carefully designed experiments they can now provide insights into mechanisms of climate change in the recent past. Thus, the geologic record is better preserved, the forcing function is large, and GCMs have become useful tools. While research efforts in each of these areas have progressed considerably over the past several decades, they have proceeded mostly on independent paths occasionally leading to conflicting ideas. To remedy this situation and accelerate progress in the area, the NASA/Ames Research Center's Mars General Circulation Modeling Group hosted a 3-day workshop on May 15-17, 2012 that brought together the geological and atmospheric science communities to collectively discuss the evidence for recent climate change on Mars, the nature of the change required, and how that change could be brought about. Over 50 researchers, students, and post-docs from the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan attended the meeting. The program and abstracts from the workshop are presented in this NASA/CP and are available to the public at http://spacescience.arc.nasa.gov/mars-climate-workshop-2012/

  17. Congress probes climate change uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simarski, Lynn Teo

    Policymakers are demanding information about climate change faster than it can be turned out by scientists. This conflict between politics and science was debated at a recent congressional hearing on priorities in global change research. On October 8 and 10, panels of scientists that included AGU president-elect Ralph J. Cicerone of the University of California attempted to identify scientific uncertainties in global warming research before the House Science Committee's Subcommittee on Science.“Decisionmakers provided with incomplete information are left with the problem of choosing among options where the consequences of a wrong choice could be disastrous,” said subcommittee chair Rick Boucher (D-Va.).

  18. Global climate change and above- belowground insect herbivore interactions

    PubMed Central

    McKenzie, Scott W.; Hentley, William T.; Hails, Rosemary S.; Jones, T. Hefin; Vanbergen, Adam J.; Johnson, Scott N.

    2013-01-01

    Predicted changes to the Earth’s climate are likely to affect above–belowground interactions. Our understanding is limited, however, by past focus on two-species aboveground interactions mostly ignoring belowground influences. Despite their importance to ecosystem processes, there remains a dearth of empirical evidence showing how climate change will affect above–belowground interactions. The responses of above- and belowground organisms to climate change are likely to differ given the fundamentally different niches they inhabit. Yet there are few studies that address the biological and ecological reactions of belowground herbivores to environmental conditions in current and future climates. Even fewer studies investigate the consequences of climate change for above–belowground interactions between herbivores and other organisms; those that do provide no evidence of a directed response. This paper highlights the importance of considering the belowground fauna when making predictions on the effects of climate change on plant-mediated interspecific interactions. PMID:24155750

  19. Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge

    EPA Science Inventory

    Book edited by Frank Princiotta titled Global Climate Change--The Technology Challenge Transparent modeling tools and the most recent literature are used, to quantify the challenge posed by climate change and potential technological remedies. The chapter examines forces driving ...

  20. HOW WILL GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PARASITES?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    : Parasites are integral components of complex biotic assemblages that comprise the biosphere. Host switching correlated with episodic climate-change events are common in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological perturbation, manifested in major geographical/pheno...

  1. Doctors Issue Call to Combat Climate Change

    MedlinePlus

    ... fullstory_158362.html Doctors Issue Call to Combat Climate Change They say respiratory illnesses, heat stroke and infectious ... 18, 2016 MONDAY, April 18, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Climate change is already harming people's health by promoting illnesses ...

  2. Study Links Climate Change to Kidney Disease

    MedlinePlus

    ... gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_158680.html Study Links Climate Change to Kidney Disease Rising temperatures, less rain seen ... 5, 2016 THURSDAY, May 5, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Climate change may boost rates of chronic kidney disease worldwide ...

  3. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR FISHERIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. hese include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. or fisheries resources, policy questions address eff...

  4. The Educational Challenges of Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McClaren, Milton; Hammond, William

    2000-01-01

    Explains five concepts that are vital for the design or implementation of programs on global climate change. Discusses different approaches for how global climate change should be taught. (Contains 20 references.) (YDS)

  5. RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and economic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents nine fundamental principles that ...

  6. The science of climate change.

    SciTech Connect

    Doctor, R. D.

    1999-09-10

    A complex debate is underway on climate change linked to proposals for costly measures that would reshape our power grid. This confronts technical experts outside of the geophysical disciplines with extensive, but unfamiliar, data both supporting and refuting claims that serious action is warranted. For example, evidence is brought to the table from one group of astrophysicists concerned with sunspots--this group believes there is no issue man can manage; while another group of oceanographers concerned with the heat balance in the world's oceans are very alarmed at the loss of arctic ice. What is the evidence? In an effort to put some of these issues in perspective for a technical audience, without a background in geophysics, a brief survey will consider (1) an overview of the 300 years of scientific inquiry on man's relationship to climate; (2) a basic discussion of what is meant by the ''greenhouse'' and why there are concerns which include not only CO{sub 2}, but also CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC's; (3) the geological record on CO{sub 2}--which likely was present at 1,000 times current levels when life began; (4) the solar luminosity and sunspot question; and (5) the current evidence for global climate change. We are at a juncture where we are attempting to understand the earth as an integrated dynamic system, rather than a collection of isolated components.

  7. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change

  8. CLIMATE CHANGE AND MANAGED ECOSYSTEMS: BOOK REVIEW

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In July, 2004, an important international climate change conference convened in Edmonton, Canada, “The Science of Changing Climates – Impacts on Agriculture, Forestry and Wetlands”. Leading experts in climate change, mostly from the natural and agricultural sciences, exchanged the latest findings o...

  9. Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, Helen J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to

  10. Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, Helen J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…

  11. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  12. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social

  13. Psychological research and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

    2015-07-01

    Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

  14. Physiological ecology meets climate change

    PubMed Central

    Bozinovic, Francisco; Pörtner, Hans-Otto

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we pointed out that understanding the physiology of differential climate change effects on organisms is one of the many urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolutionary biology. We explore how physiological ecology can contribute to a holistic view of climate change impacts on organisms and ecosystems and their evolutionary responses. We suggest that theoretical and experimental efforts not only need to improve our understanding of thermal limits to organisms, but also to consider multiple stressors both on land and in the oceans. As an example, we discuss recent efforts to understand the effects of various global change drivers on aquatic ectotherms in the field that led to the development of the concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) as a framework integrating various drivers and linking organisational levels from ecosystem to organism, tissue, cell, and molecules. We suggest seven core objectives of a comprehensive research program comprising the interplay among physiological, ecological, and evolutionary approaches for both aquatic and terrestrial organisms. While studies of individual aspects are already underway in many laboratories worldwide, integration of these findings into conceptual frameworks is needed not only within one organism group such as animals but also across organism domains such as Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya. Indeed, development of unifying concepts is relevant for interpreting existing and future findings in a coherent way and for projecting the future ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on functional biodiversity. We also suggest that OCLTT may in the end and from an evolutionary point of view, be able to explain the limited thermal tolerance of metazoans when compared to other organisms. PMID:25798220

  15. Recent Climatic Changes over Kazakhstan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akhmadiyeva, Z. K.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2008-12-01

    We used a comprehensive archive of daily in situ meteorological information for Republic of Kazakhstan created by joint efforts of the Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate of the Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, All-Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Center of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, Obninsk, Russian Federation, and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina. Archive includes the data of 351 synoptic stations and spans the period of instrumental observations with the best data coverage during the 1936-2006 period. This period was used to assess climatology and the latest (since 1990) climatic changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and the near surface wind speed and atmospheric pressure over Kazakhstan. We found that during the last two decades (1990-2006) compared to the previous three decades, surface air temperature, T, in Kazakhstan increased by 1 to 2 K in winter, spring, and autumn (with the maximum warming in the autumn) but not in summers where a cooling was observed in the central parts of the nation. Changes in relative humidity were symmetric and negatively correlated with T: reporting drier surface air conditions in winter, spring, and autumn and an increase in the mean summer relative humidity values. Countrywide, annual precipitation did not change substantially (it somewhat increased in winter and summer, but mostly decreased in the intermediate seasons). The largest change signal found is a substantial nationwide decrease of the wind speed at 10 m above the ground in all seasons.

  16. Physiological ecology meets climate change.

    PubMed

    Bozinovic, Francisco; Pörtner, Hans-Otto

    2015-03-01

    In this article, we pointed out that understanding the physiology of differential climate change effects on organisms is one of the many urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolutionary biology. We explore how physiological ecology can contribute to a holistic view of climate change impacts on organisms and ecosystems and their evolutionary responses. We suggest that theoretical and experimental efforts not only need to improve our understanding of thermal limits to organisms, but also to consider multiple stressors both on land and in the oceans. As an example, we discuss recent efforts to understand the effects of various global change drivers on aquatic ectotherms in the field that led to the development of the concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) as a framework integrating various drivers and linking organisational levels from ecosystem to organism, tissue, cell, and molecules. We suggest seven core objectives of a comprehensive research program comprising the interplay among physiological, ecological, and evolutionary approaches for both aquatic and terrestrial organisms. While studies of individual aspects are already underway in many laboratories worldwide, integration of these findings into conceptual frameworks is needed not only within one organism group such as animals but also across organism domains such as Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya. Indeed, development of unifying concepts is relevant for interpreting existing and future findings in a coherent way and for projecting the future ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on functional biodiversity. We also suggest that OCLTT may in the end and from an evolutionary point of view, be able to explain the limited thermal tolerance of metazoans when compared to other organisms. PMID:25798220

  17. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural

  18. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  19. The impact of Pleistocene climate change on an ancient arctic–alpine plant: multiple lineages of disparate history in Oxyria digyna

    PubMed Central

    Allen, Geraldine A; Marr, Kendrick L; McCormick, Laurie J; Hebda, Richard J

    2012-01-01

    The ranges of arctic–alpine species have shifted extensively with Pleistocene climate changes and glaciations. Using sequence data from the trnH-psbA and trnT-trnL chloroplast DNA spacer regions, we investigated the phylogeography of the widespread, ancient (>3 million years) arctic–alpine plant Oxyria digyna (Polygonaceae). We identified 45 haplotypes and six highly divergent major lineages; estimated ages of these lineages (time to most recent common ancestor, TMRCA) ranged from ∼0.5 to 2.5 million years. One lineage is widespread in the arctic, a second is restricted to the southern Rocky Mountains of the western United States, and a third was found only in the Himalayan and Altai regions of Asia. Three other lineages are widespread in western North America, where they overlap extensively. The high genetic diversity and the presence of divergent major cpDNA lineages within Oxyria digyna reflect its age and suggest that it was widespread during much of its history. The distributions of individual lineages indicate repeated spread of Oxyria digyna through North America over multiple glacial cycles. During the Last Glacial Maximum it persisted in multiple refugia in western North America, including Beringia, south of the continental ice, and within the northern limits of the Cordilleran ice sheet. Our data contribute to a growing body of evidence that arctic–alpine species have migrated from different source regions over multiple glacial cycles and that cryptic refugia contributed to persistence through the Last Glacial Maximum. PMID:22822441

  20. Health implications of a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Raab, Kristin K

    2015-05-01

    For the past five years, staff from the Minnesota Department of Health's Minnesota Climate and Health Program have been studying climate data and the potential health effects of climate change in the state. This year they released the "Minnesota Climate and Health Profile Report 2015," which presents a synthesis of their research. This article summarizes key points from that report. PMID:26065192