Science.gov

Sample records for climate variability niche

  1. Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Booth, Robert K.; Gray, Stephen T.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

  2. Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jackson, S.T.; Betancourt, J.L.; Booth, R.K.; Gray, S.T.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

  3. Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion.

    PubMed

    Broennimann, O; Treier, U A; Müller-Schärer, H; Thuiller, W; Peterson, A T; Guisan, A

    2007-08-01

    Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of the observed climatic niche occurred between native and non-native ranges, providing the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. The models fail to predict the current invaded distribution, but correctly predict areas of introduction. Climate matching is thus a useful approach to identify areas at risk of introduction and establishment of newly or not-yet-introduced neophytes, but may not predict the full extent of invasions. PMID:17594425

  4. Evolution of climate niches in European mammals?

    PubMed

    Dormann, Carsten F; Gruber, Bernd; Winter, Marten; Herrmann, Dirk

    2010-04-23

    Our ability to predict consequences of climate change is severely impaired by the lack of knowledge on the ability of species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. We used distribution data for 140 mammal species in Europe, together with data on climate, land cover and topography, to derive a statistical description of their realized climate niche. We then compared climate niche overlap of pairs of species, selected on the basis of phylogenetic information. In contrast to expectations, related species were not similar in their climate niche. Rather, even species pairs that had a common ancestor less than 1 Ma already display very high climate niche distances. We interpret our finding as a strong interspecific competitive constraint on the realized niche, rather than a rapid evolution of the fundamental niche. If correct, our results imply a very limited usefulness of climate niche models for the prediction of future mammal distributions. PMID:19828492

  5. Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

    PubMed

    La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

    2012-07-01

    1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation

  6. Niche-tracking migrants and niche-switching residents: evolution of climatic niches in New World warblers (Parulidae).

    PubMed

    Gómez, Camila; Tenorio, Elkin A; Montoya, Paola; Cadena, Carlos Daniel

    2016-02-10

    Differences in life-history traits between tropical and temperate lineages are often attributed to differences in their climatic niche dynamics. For example, the more frequent appearance of migratory behaviour in temperate-breeding species than in species originally breeding in the tropics is believed to have resulted partly from tropical climatic stability and niche conservatism constraining tropical species from shifting their ranges. However, little is known about the patterns and processes underlying climatic niche evolution in migrant and resident animals. We evaluated the evolution of overlap in climatic niches between seasons and its relationship to migratory behaviour in the Parulidae, a family of New World passerine birds. We used ordination methods to measure seasonal niche overlap and niche breadth of 54 resident and 49 migrant species and used phylogenetic comparative methods to assess patterns of climatic niche evolution. We found that despite travelling thousands of kilometres, migrants tracked climatic conditions across the year to a greater extent than tropical residents. Migrant species had wider niches than resident species, although residents as a group occupied a wider climatic space and niches of migrants and residents overlapped extensively. Neither breeding latitude nor migratory distance explained variation among species in climatic niche overlap between seasons. Our findings support the notion that tropical species have narrower niches than temperate-breeders, but does not necessarily constrain their ability to shift or expand their geographical ranges and become migratory. Overall, the tropics may have been historically less likely to experience the suite of components that generate strong selection pressures for the evolution of migratory behaviour. PMID:26865303

  7. Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians

    PubMed Central

    Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. PMID:25274369

  8. Neutral biogeography and the evolution of climatic niches.

    PubMed

    Boucher, Florian C; Thuiller, Wilfried; Davies, T Jonathan; Lavergne, Sébastien

    2014-05-01

    Recent debate on whether climatic niches are conserved through time has focused on how phylogenetic niche conservatism can be measured by deviations from a Brownian motion model of evolutionary change. However, there has been no evaluation of this methodological approach. In particular, the fact that climatic niches are usually obtained from distribution data and are thus heavily influenced by biogeographic factors has largely been overlooked. Our main objective here was to test whether patterns of climatic niche evolution that are frequently observed might arise from neutral dynamics rather than from adaptive scenarios. We developed a model inspired by neutral biodiversity theory, where individuals disperse, compete, and undergo speciation independently of climate. We then sampled the climatic niches of species according to their geographic position and showed that even when species evolve independently of climate, their niches can nonetheless exhibit evolutionary patterns strongly differing from Brownian motion. Indeed, climatic niche evolution is better captured by a model of punctuated evolution with constraints due to landscape boundaries, two features that are traditionally interpreted as evidence for selective processes acting on the niche. We therefore suggest that deviation from Brownian motion alone should not be used as evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism but that information on phenotypic traits directly linked to physiology is required to demonstrate that climatic niches have been conserved through time. PMID:24739191

  9. Available Climate Regimes Drive Niche Diversification during Range Expansion.

    PubMed

    Wüest, Rafael O; Antonelli, Alexandre; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Linder, H Peter

    2015-05-01

    Climate is a main predictor of biodiversity on a global scale, yet how climate availability affects niche evolution remains poorly explored. Here we assess how intercontinental climate differences may affect the evolution of climate niches and suggest three possible processes: niche truncation along major environmental gradients, intercontinental differences in available climate causing differences in selective regimes, and niche shifts associated with long-distance dispersals leading to a pattern of punctuated evolution. Using the globally distributed danthonioid grasses, we show significant niche differentiation among continents and several instances of niche truncation. The comparison of inferred selective regimes with differences in available climatic space among continents demonstrates adaptation resulting from opportunistic evolution toward available climatic space. Our results suggest that niche evolution in this clade is punctuated, consistent with accelerated niche evolution after long-distance dispersal events. Finally, we discuss how intrinsic constraints (genetic, developmental, or functional) and biotic interactions could have interacted with these three processes during range expansion. Integrating these mechanisms could improve predictions for invasive taxa and long-term evolutionary responses of expanding clades to climate change. PMID:25905507

  10. Macro-Climatic Distribution Limits Show Both Niche Expansion and Niche Specialization among C4 Panicoids.

    PubMed

    Aagesen, Lone; Biganzoli, Fernando; Bena, Julia; Godoy-Bürki, Ana C; Reinheimer, Renata; Zuloaga, Fernando O

    2016-01-01

    Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level. PMID:26950074

  11. Macro-Climatic Distribution Limits Show Both Niche Expansion and Niche Specialization among C4 Panicoids

    PubMed Central

    Aagesen, Lone; Biganzoli, Fernando; Bena, Julia; Godoy-Bürki, Ana C.; Reinheimer, Renata; Zuloaga, Fernando O.

    2016-01-01

    Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level. PMID:26950074

  12. Tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in Primates.

    PubMed

    Duran, Andressa; Pie, Marcio R

    2015-09-01

    Climatic niches have increasingly become a nexus in our understanding of a variety of ecological and evolutionary phenomena, from species distributions to latitudinal diversity gradients. Despite the increasing availability of comprehensive datasets on species ranges, phylogenetic histories, and georeferenced environmental conditions, studies on the evolution of climate niches have only begun to understand how niches evolve over evolutionary timescales. Here, using primates as a model system, we integrate recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods, species distribution patterns, and climatic data to explore primate climatic niche evolution, both among clades and over time. In general, we found that simple, constant-rate models provide a poor representation of how climatic niches evolve. For instance, there have been shifts in the rate of climatic niche evolution in several independent clades, particularly in response to the increasingly cooler climates of the past 10 My. Interestingly, rate accelerations greatly outnumbered rate decelerations. These results highlight the importance of considering more realistic evolutionary models that allow for the detection of heterogeneity in the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution, as well as to infer possible constraining factors for species distributions in geographical space. PMID:26178157

  13. Climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini).

    PubMed

    Duran, Andressa; Meyer, Andreas L S; Pie, Marcio R

    2013-01-01

    Despite considerable interest in recent years on species distribution modeling and phylogenetic niche conservatism, little is known about the way in which climatic niches change over evolutionary time. This knowledge is of major importance to understand the mechanisms underlying limits of species distributions, as well as to infer how different lineages might be affected by anthropogenic climate change. In this study we investigate the tempo and mode climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini). Climatic conditions found throughout the distribution of 140 primate species were investigated using a principal component analysis, which indicated that mean temperature (particularly during the winter) is the most important climatic correlate of platyrrhine geographical distributions, accounting for nearly half of the interspecific variation in climatic niches. The effects of precipitation were associated with the second principal component, particularly with respect to the dry season. When models of trait evolution were fit to scores on each of the principal component axes, significant phylogenetic signal was detected for PC1 scores, but not for PC2 scores. Interestingly, although all platyrrhine families occupied comparable regions of climatic space, some aotid species such as Aotus lemurinus, A. jorgehernandezi, and A. miconax show highly distinctive climatic niches associated with drier conditions (high PC2 scores). This shift might have been made possible by their nocturnal habits, which could serve as an exaptation that allow them to be less constrained by humidity during the night. These results underscore the usefulness of investigating explicitly the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution and its role in determining species distributions. PMID:24376729

  14. Climatic Niche Evolution in New World Monkeys (Platyrrhini)

    PubMed Central

    Duran, Andressa; Meyer, Andreas L. S.; Pie, Marcio R.

    2013-01-01

    Despite considerable interest in recent years on species distribution modeling and phylogenetic niche conservatism, little is known about the way in which climatic niches change over evolutionary time. This knowledge is of major importance to understand the mechanisms underlying limits of species distributions, as well as to infer how different lineages might be affected by anthropogenic climate change. In this study we investigate the tempo and mode climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini). Climatic conditions found throughout the distribution of 140 primate species were investigated using a principal component analysis, which indicated that mean temperature (particularly during the winter) is the most important climatic correlate of platyrrhine geographical distributions, accounting for nearly half of the interspecific variation in climatic niches. The effects of precipitation were associated with the second principal component, particularly with respect to the dry season. When models of trait evolution were fit to scores on each of the principal component axes, significant phylogenetic signal was detected for PC1 scores, but not for PC2 scores. Interestingly, although all platyrrhine families occupied comparable regions of climatic space, some aotid species such as Aotus lemurinus, A. jorgehernandezi, and A. miconax show highly distinctive climatic niches associated with drier conditions (high PC2 scores). This shift might have been made possible by their nocturnal habits, which could serve as an exaptation that allow them to be less constrained by humidity during the night. These results underscore the usefulness of investigating explicitly the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution and its role in determining species distributions. PMID:24376729

  15. Climatic niche conservatism and ecological opportunity in the explosive radiation of arvicoline rodents (Arvicolinae, Cricetidae).

    PubMed

    Lv, Xue; Xia, Lin; Ge, Deyan; Wu, Yongjie; Yang, Qisen

    2016-05-01

    Climatic niche conservatism shapes patterns of diversity in many taxonomic groups, while ecological opportunity (EO) can trigger rapid speciation that is less constrained by the amount of time a lineage has occupied a given habitat. These two processes are well studied, but limited research has considered their joint and relative roles in shaping diversity patterns. We characterized climatic and biogeographic variables for 102 species of arvicoline rodents (Arvicolinae, Cricetidae), testing the effects of climatic niche conservatism and EO on arvicoline diversification as lineages transitioned between biogeographic regions. We found that the amount of time a lineage has occupied a precipitation niche is positively correlated with diversity along a precipitation gradient, suggesting climatic niche conservatism. In contrast, shift in diversification rate explained diversity patterns along a temperature gradient. Our results suggest that an indirect relationship exists between temperature and diversification that is associated with EO as arvicoline rodents colonized warm Palearctic environments. Climatic niche conservatism alone did not fully explain diversity patterns under density-dependence, highlighting the additional importance of EO-related processes in promoting the explosive radiation in arvicoline rodents and shaping diversity pattern among biogeographic regions and along climatic gradients. PMID:27061935

  16. The Climatic Niche Diversity of Malagasy Primates: A Phylogenetic Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Kamilar, Jason M.; Muldoon, Kathleen M.

    2010-01-01

    Background Numerous researchers have posited that there should be a strong negative relationship between the evolutionary distance among species and their ecological similarity. Alternative evidence suggests that members of adaptive radiations should display no relationship between divergence time and ecological similarity because rapid evolution results in near-simultaneous speciation early in the clade's history. In this paper, we performed the first investigation of ecological diversity in a phylogenetic context using a mammalian adaptive radiation, the Malagasy primates. Methodology/Principal Findings We collected data for 43 extant species including: 1) 1064 species by locality samples, 2) GIS climate data for each sampling locality, and 3) the phylogenetic relationships of the species. We calculated the niche space of each species by summarizing the climatic variation at localities of known occurrence. Climate data from all species occurrences at all sites were entered into a principal components analysis. We calculated the mean value of the first two PCA axes, representing rainfall and temperature diversity, for each species. We calculated the K statistic using the Physig program for Matlab to examine how well the climatic niche space of species was correlated with phylogeny. Conclusions/Significance We found that there was little relationship between the phylogenetic distance of Malagasy primates and their rainfall and temperature niche space, i.e., closely related species tend to occupy different climatic niches. Furthermore, several species from different genera converged on a similar climatic niche. These results have important implications for the evolution of ecological diversity, and the long-term survival of these endangered species. PMID:20552016

  17. Do Ecological Niche Models Accurately Identify Climatic Determinants of Species Ranges?

    PubMed

    Searcy, Christopher A; Shaffer, H Bradley

    2016-04-01

    Defining species' niches is central to understanding their distributions and is thus fundamental to basic ecology and climate change projections. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are a key component of making accurate projections and include descriptions of the niche in terms of both response curves and rankings of variable importance. In this study, we evaluate Maxent's ranking of environmental variables based on their importance in delimiting species' range boundaries by asking whether these same variables also govern annual recruitment based on long-term demographic studies. We found that Maxent-based assessments of variable importance in setting range boundaries in the California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense; CTS) correlate very well with how important those variables are in governing ongoing recruitment of CTS at the population level. This strong correlation suggests that Maxent's ranking of variable importance captures biologically realistic assessments of factors governing population persistence. However, this result holds only when Maxent models are built using best-practice procedures and variables are ranked based on permutation importance. Our study highlights the need for building high-quality niche models and provides encouraging evidence that when such models are built, they can reflect important aspects of a species' ecology. PMID:27028071

  18. Climate Variability Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halpern, David (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    The Annual Report of the Climate Variability Program briefly describes research activities of 40 Principal Investigators who are funded by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Research Division. The report is focused on the year 1998. Utilization of satellite observations is a singularity of research on climate science and technology at JPL. Research at JPL has two foci: generate new knowledge and develop new technology.

  19. Phylogenetic patterns of climatic, habitat and trophic niches in a European avian assemblage

    PubMed Central

    Pearman, Peter B; Lavergne, Sébastien; Roquet, Cristina; Wüest, Rafael; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2014-01-01

    Aim The origins of ecological diversity in continental species assemblages have long intrigued biogeographers. We apply phylogenetic comparative analyses to disentangle the evolutionary patterns of ecological niches in an assemblage of European birds. We compare phylogenetic patterns in trophic, habitat and climatic niche components. Location Europe. Methods From polygon range maps and handbook data we inferred the realized climatic, habitat and trophic niches of 405 species of breeding birds in Europe. We fitted Pagel's lambda and kappa statistics, and conducted analyses of disparity through time to compare temporal patterns of ecological diversification on all niche axes together. All observed patterns were compared with expectations based on neutral (Brownian) models of niche divergence. Results In this assemblage, patterns of phylogenetic signal (lambda) suggest that related species resemble each other less in regard to their climatic and habitat niches than they do in their trophic niche. Kappa estimates show that ecological divergence does not gradually increase with divergence time, and that this punctualism is stronger in climatic niches than in habitat and trophic niches. Observed niche disparity markedly exceeds levels expected from a Brownian model of ecological diversification, thus providing no evidence for past phylogenetic niche conservatism in these multivariate niches. Levels of multivariate disparity are greatest for the climatic niche, followed by disparity of the habitat and the trophic niches. Main conclusions Phylogenetic patterns in the three niche components differ within this avian assemblage. Variation in evolutionary rates (degree of gradualism, constancy through the tree) and/or non-random macroecological sampling probably lead here to differences in the phylogenetic structure of niche components. Testing hypotheses on the origin of these patterns requires more complete phylogenetic trees of the birds, and extended ecological data on

  20. Climate Variability Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halpern, David (Editor)

    2002-01-01

    The Annual Report of the Climate Variability Program briefly describes research activities of Principal Investigators who are funded by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Research Division. The report is focused on the year 2001. Utilization of satellite observations is a singularity of research on climate science and technology at JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory). Research at JPL has two foci: generate new knowledge and develop new technology.

  1. Zoonoses and climate variability.

    PubMed

    Cardenas, Rocio; Sandoval, Claudia M; Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J; Vivas, Paul

    2008-12-01

    Leishmaniasis in the Americas is transmitted by Lutzomyia spp., which have many animal reservoirs. Previous studies indicated potential changes in vectors of climate-related distribution, but impact outcomes need to be further studied. We report climatic and El Niño events during 1985-2002 that may have had an impact on leishmaniasis in 11 southern departments of Colombia: Amazonas, Caquetá, Cauca (Ca), Huila, Meta (Mt), Nariño, Putumayo (Py), Tolima, Valle (Va), Vaupes (Vp), and Vichada. Climatic data were obtained by satellite and epidemiologic data were obtained from the Health Ministry. NOAA climatic classification and SOI/ONI indexes were used as indicators of global climate variability. Yearly variation comparisons and median trend deviations were made for disease incidence and climatic variability. During this period there was considerable climatic variability, with a strong El Niño for 6 years and a strong La Niña for 8. During this period, 19,212 cases of leishmaniasis were registered, for a mean of 4756.83 cases/year. Disease in the whole region increased (mean of 4.98%) during the El Niño years in comparison to the La Niña years, but there were differences between departments with increases during El Niño (Mt 6.95%, Vp 4.84%), but the rest showed an increase during La Niña (1.61%-64.41%). Differences were significant in Va (P= 0.0092), Py (P= 0.0001), Ca (P= 0.0313), and for the whole region (P= 0.0023), but not in the rest of the departments. The importance of climate change is shown by shifts in insect and animal distributions. These data reflect the importance of climate on transmission of leishmaniasis and open further investigations related to forecasting and monitoring systems, where understanding the relationship between zoonoses and climate variability could help to improve the management of these emerging and reemerging diseases. PMID:19120241

  2. Current Climate Variability & Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  3. Global invasion of Lantana camara: has the climatic niche been conserved across continents?

    PubMed

    Goncalves, Estefany; Herrera, Ileana; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O; Lampo, Margarita; Velásquez, Grisel; Sharma, Gyan P; García-Rangel, Shaenandhoa

    2014-01-01

    Lantana camara, a native plant from tropical America, is considered one of the most harmful invasive species worldwide. Several studies have identified potentially invasible areas under scenarios of global change, on the assumption that niche is conserved during the invasion process. Recent studies, however, suggest that many invasive plants do not conserve their niches. Using Principal Components Analyses (PCA), we tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for L. camara by comparing its native niche in South America with its expressed niche in Africa, Australia and India. Using MaxEnt, the estimated niche for the native region was projected onto each invaded region to generate potential distributions there. Our results demonstrate that while L. camara occupied subsets of its original native niche in Africa and Australia, in India its niche shifted significantly. There, 34% of the occurrences were detected in warmer habitats nonexistent in its native range. The estimated niche for India was also projected onto Africa and Australia to identify other vulnerable areas predicted from the observed niche shift detected in India. As a result, new potentially invasible areas were identified in central Africa and southern Australia. Our findings do not support the hypothesis of niche conservatism for the invasion of L. camara. The mechanisms that allow this species to expand its niche need to be investigated in order to improve our capacity to predict long-term geographic changes in the face of global climatic changes. PMID:25343481

  4. Widespread correlations between climatic niche evolution and species diversification in birds.

    PubMed

    Cooney, Christopher R; Seddon, Nathalie; Tobias, Joseph A

    2016-07-01

    The adaptability of species' climatic niches can influence the dynamics of colonization and gene flow across climatic gradients, potentially increasing the likelihood of speciation or reducing extinction in the face of environmental change. However, previous comparative studies have tested these ideas using geographically, taxonomically and ecologically restricted samples, yielding mixed results, and thus the processes linking climatic niche evolution with diversification remain poorly understood. Focusing on birds, the largest and most widespread class of terrestrial vertebrates, we test whether variation in species diversification among clades is correlated with rates of climatic niche evolution and the extent to which these patterns are modified by underlying gradients in biogeography and species' ecology. We quantified climatic niches, latitudinal distribution and ecological traits for 7657 (˜75%) bird species based on geographical range polygons and then used Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to test whether niche evolution was related to species richness and rates of diversification across genus- and family-level clades. We found that the rate of climatic niche evolution has a positive linear relationship with both species richness and diversification rate at two different taxonomic levels (genus and family). Furthermore, this positive association between labile climatic niches and diversification was detected regardless of variation in clade latitude or key ecological traits. Our findings suggest either that rapid adaptation to unoccupied areas of climatic niche space promotes avian diversification, or that diversification promotes adaptation. Either way, we propose that climatic niche evolution is a fundamental process regulating the link between climate and biodiversity at global scales, irrespective of the geographical and ecological context of speciation and extinction. PMID:27064436

  5. Climate Variability and Change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    U.S. Geological Survey

    2007-01-01

    In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a science strategy outlining the major natural science issues facing the Nation in the next decade. The science strategy consists of six science directions of critical importance, focusing on areas where natural science can make a substantial contribution to the well-being of the Nation and the world. This fact sheet focuses on climate variability and change and how USGS research can strengthen the Nation with information needed to meet the challenges of the 21st century.

  6. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

    PubMed

    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E; Bustamante, Ramiro O; Badano, Ernesto I

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  7. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models

    PubMed Central

    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E.; Bustamante, Ramiro O.

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  8. Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Tingley, Morgan W.; Monahan, William B.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Moritz, Craig

    2009-01-01

    In the face of environmental change, species can evolve new physiological tolerances to cope with altered climatic conditions or move spatially to maintain existing physiological associations with particular climates that define each species' climatic niche. When environmental change occurs over short temporal and large spatial scales, vagile species are expected to move geographically by tracking their climatic niches through time. Here, we test for evidence of niche tracking in bird species of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, focusing on 53 species resurveyed nearly a century apart at 82 sites on four elevational transects. Changes in climate and bird distributions resulted in focal species shifting their average climatological range over time. By comparing the directions of these shifts relative to the centroids of species' range-wide climatic niches, we found that 48 species (90.6%) tracked their climatic niche. Analysis of niche sensitivity on an independent set of occurrence data significantly predicted the temperature and precipitation gradients tracked by species. Furthermore, in 50 species (94.3%), site-specific occupancy models showed that the position of each site relative to the climatic niche centroid explained colonization and extinction probabilities better than a null model with constant probabilities. Combined, our results indicate that the factors limiting a bird species' range in the Sierra Nevada in the early 20th century also tended to drive changes in distribution over time, suggesting that climatic models derived from niche theory might be used successfully to forecast where and how to conserve species in the face of climate change. PMID:19805037

  9. Climate Impact of Solar Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, Kenneth H. (Editor); Arking, Albert (Editor)

    1990-01-01

    The conference on The Climate Impact of Solar Variability, was held at Goddard Space Flight Center from April 24 to 27, 1990. In recent years they developed a renewed interest in the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases on climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons have been increasing at rates that could significantly change climate. There is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this anthropogenic change. The climate system is very complex, with feedback processes that are not fully understood. Moreover, there are two sources of natural climate variability (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) added to the anthropogenic changes which may confuse our interpretation of the observed temperature record. Thus, if we could understand the climatic impact of the natural variability, it would aid our interpretation and understanding of man-made climate changes.

  10. Natural Climate Variability and Future Climate Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

    2013-12-01

    Individual beliefs about climate change and willingness-to-pay for its mitigation are influenced by local weather and climate. Large ensemble climate modeling experiments have demonstrated the large role natural variability plays in local weather and climate on a multidecadal timescale. Here we illustrate how if support for global climate policies and subsequent implementation of those policies are determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability could influence the timeline for implementation of emissions reduction policies by decades. The response of complex social systems to local and regional changes in weather and climate cannot be quantitatively predicted with confidence. Both the form and timing of the societal response can be affected by interactions between social systems and the physical climate system. Here, to illustrate one type of influence decadal natural variability can have on climate policy, we consider a simple example in which the only question is when, if ever, the different parties will support emissions reduction. To analyze the potential effect that unpredictable extreme events may have on the time to reach a global agreement on climate policy, we analyzed the output from a 40-member Community Climate System Model version 3 simulation ensemble to illustrate how local experiences might affect the timing of acceptance of strong climate policy measures. We assume that a nation's decision to take strong actions to abate emissions is contingent upon the local experiences of its citizens and then examine how the timelines for policy action may be influenced by variability in local weather. To illustrate, we assume that a social 'tipping point' is reached at the national level occurs when half of the population of a nation has experienced a sufficiently extreme event. If climate policies are driven by democratic consensus then variability in weather could result in significantly disparate times-to-action. For the top six CO2 emitters

  11. Evaluating Habitat Suitability for the Establishment of Monochamus spp. through Climate-Based Niche Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Estay, Sergio A.; Labra, Fabio A.; Sepulveda, Roger D.; Bacigalupe, Leonardo D.

    2014-01-01

    Pine sawyer beetle species of the genus Monochamus are vectors of the nematode pest Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The introduction of these species into new habitats is a constant threat for those regions where the forestry industry depends on conifers, and especially on species of Pinus. To obtain information about the potential risk of establishment of these insects in Chile, we performed climate-based niche modeling using data for five North American and four Eurasian Monochamus species using a Maxent approach. The most important variables that account for current distribution of these species are total annual precipitation and annual and seasonal average temperatures, with some differences between North American and Eurasian species. Projections of potential geographic distribution in Chile show that all species could occupy at least 37% of the area between 30° and 53°S, where industrial plantations of P. radiata are concentrated. Our results indicated that Chile seems more suitable for Eurasian than for North American species. PMID:25019408

  12. Evaluating habitat suitability for the establishment of Monochamus spp. through climate-based niche modeling.

    PubMed

    Estay, Sergio A; Labra, Fabio A; Sepulveda, Roger D; Bacigalupe, Leonardo D

    2014-01-01

    Pine sawyer beetle species of the genus Monochamus are vectors of the nematode pest Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The introduction of these species into new habitats is a constant threat for those regions where the forestry industry depends on conifers, and especially on species of Pinus. To obtain information about the potential risk of establishment of these insects in Chile, we performed climate-based niche modeling using data for five North American and four Eurasian Monochamus species using a Maxent approach. The most important variables that account for current distribution of these species are total annual precipitation and annual and seasonal average temperatures, with some differences between North American and Eurasian species. Projections of potential geographic distribution in Chile show that all species could occupy at least 37% of the area between 30° and 53°S, where industrial plantations of P. radiata are concentrated. Our results indicated that Chile seems more suitable for Eurasian than for North American species. PMID:25019408

  13. Explanative power of variables used in species distribution modelling: an issue of general model transferability or niche shift in the invasive Greenhouse frog ( Eleutherodactylus planirostris)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rödder, Dennis; Lötters, Stefan

    2010-09-01

    The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict potential distributions of species is steadily increasing. A necessary assumption when projecting models throughout space or time is that climatic niches are conservative, but recent findings of niche shifts during biological invasion of particular plant and animal species have indicated that this assumption is not categorically valid. One reason for observed shifts may relate to variable selection for modelling. In this study, we assess differences in climatic niches in the native and invasive ranges of the Greenhouse frog ( Eleutherodactylus planirostris). We analyze which variables are more ‘conserved’ in comparison to more ‘relaxed’ variables (i.e. subject to niche shift) and how they influence transferability of SDMs developed with Maxent on the basis of ten bioclimatic layers best describing the climatic requirements of the target species. We focus on degrees of niche similarity and conservatism using Schoener's index and Hellinger distance. Significance of results are tested with null models. Results indicate that the degrees of niche similarity and conservatism vary greatly among the predictive variables. Some shifts can be attributed to active habitat selection, whereas others apparently reflect variation in the availability of climate conditions or biotic interactions between the frogs' native and invasive ranges. Patterns suggesting active habitat selection also vary among variables. Our findings evoke considerable implications on the transferability of SDMs over space and time, which is strongly affected by the choice and number of predictors. The incorporation of ‘relaxed’ predictors not or only indirectly correlated with biologically meaningful predictors may lead to erroneous predictions when projecting SDMs. We recommend thorough assessments of invasive species' ecology for the identification biologically meaningful predictors facilitating transferability.

  14. Colour-variable birds have broader ranges, wider niches and are less likely to be threatened.

    PubMed

    Delhey, K; Smith, J; Peters, A

    2013-07-01

    Coloration fulfils a variety of adaptive functions in animals. Colour variability, both between and within species, can be caused by different colours being favoured for different functions and in different environments. Thus, species with highly variable coloration may have greater potential to persist in new and changing environments. As a consequence, such colour-variable species may be more able to adapt, colonize new areas and niches, occupy larger ranges, speciate more readily and in general be less vulnerable to environmental change and extinction. These predictions have been supported by comparative analyses on amphibians and reptiles. However, as coloration in ectotherms plays a key role in thermoregulation, it is unclear whether these results can be generalized to endotherms, such as birds and mammals. Here, we test the hypothesis that more colour-variable endotherms occupy larger ranges/niches and are less vulnerable to the threat of extinction by focussing on colour variation in Australian parrots and passerine birds. As predicted, colour variability was correlated with range size (parrots and passerines) and niche breadth (dietary heterogeneity, parrots only). These relationships support the predicted link between colour variability and adaptability, whereby range size and niche breadth may be a cause of colour variability or vice versa. Irrespective, and as predicted, colour variability was lower in threatened species, even after statistically controlling for other confounding variables. Hence, our study supports the hypothesis that colour-variable species in general are more resilient to environmental change. PMID:23663162

  15. Is There Any Evidence for Rapid, Genetically-Based, Climatic Niche Expansion in the Invasive Common Ragweed?

    PubMed Central

    Gallien, Laure; Thuiller, Wilfried; Fort, Noémie; Boleda, Marti; Alberto, Florian J.; Rioux, Delphine; Lainé, Juliette; Lavergne, Sébastien

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche shifts have been documented in a number of invasive species by comparing the native and adventive climatic ranges in which they occur. However, these shifts likely represent changes in the realized climatic niches of invasive species, and may not necessarily be driven by genetic changes in climatic affinities. Until now the role of rapid niche evolution in the spread of invasive species remains a challenging issue with conflicting results. Here, we document a likely genetically-based climatic niche expansion of an annual plant invader, the common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a highly allergenic invasive species causing substantial public health issues. To do so, we looked for recent evolutionary change at the upward migration front of its adventive range in the French Alps. Based on species climatic niche models estimated at both global and regional scales we stratified our sampling design to adequately capture the species niche, and localized populations suspected of niche expansion. Using a combination of species niche modeling, landscape genetics models and common garden measurements, we then related the species genetic structure and its phenotypic architecture across the climatic niche. Our results strongly suggest that the common ragweed is rapidly adapting to local climatic conditions at its invasion front and that it currently expands its niche toward colder and formerly unsuitable climates in the French Alps (i.e. in sites where niche models would not predict its occurrence). Such results, showing that species climatic niches can evolve on very short time scales, have important implications for predictive models of biological invasions that do not account for evolutionary processes. PMID:27116455

  16. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  17. Climate, niche, ticks, and models: what they are and how we should interpret them.

    PubMed

    Estrada-Peña, Agustín

    2008-12-01

    Ticks spend most of their life cycle in the environment, and all tick life cycle stages are dependent on a complex combination of climate variables. Furthermore, host availability and vegetation significantly modulate the dynamics of tick populations. Tick recruitment is dependent on successful reproduction, which in turn requires sufficient adult tick densities, available blood meal sources, and egg survival. Though many animals can serve as hosts, there are several determinants of host suitability. For example, host availability in time and space is an important determinant of tick bionomics. Shelter and protection from environmental extremes are critical to tick survival. Questing and diapausing ticks are vulnerable to extremes of temperature and humidity. There are concerns about how predicted climate change may alter several critical features of host-parasite relationships of ticks, the potential for invasion of new areas or alteration of patterns of pathogen transmission in particular. However, modeling approaches that relate known occurrences of tick species to climate (and/or landscape) features and predict geographic occurrences are not completely fulfilling our needs to understand how the "tick panorama" can change as a consequence of these climate trends. This is a short review about the concept of ecological niche as applied to ticks, as well as some raised concerns about its evaluation and strict definition, and its usefulness to map geographical suitability for ticks. Comments about how climate, hosts, and landscape configuration are briefly discussed regarding its applicability to tick mapping and with reference about their impact on tick abundance. I will further comment on already published observations about observed changes in the geographical range of ticks in parts of Europe. PMID:19030890

  18. Evolution and climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Potts, R.

    1996-08-16

    Variations in organisms are preserved and accrue if there is a consistent bias in selection over many generations. This idea of long-term directional selection has been embraced to explain major adaptive change. It is widely thought that important adaptive shifts in hominids corresponded with directional environmental change. This view, which echoes the savanna scenario of hominid evolution, has strongly been supported by paleontologists and paleoclimatologists over the past decade. The origin of the hominids, bipedality, stone toolmaking, and brain size increase have all been related to cooling, aridification, and savanna expansion. However there appears to be a more prominent signal than the aridity trend: an increase in the range of climatic variation over time. This article discusses the possible reprocussions of this interpertation. 13 refs.

  19. Variability in microbial community composition and function between different niches within a coral reef.

    PubMed

    Tout, Jessica; Jeffries, Thomas C; Webster, Nicole S; Stocker, Roman; Ralph, Peter J; Seymour, Justin R

    2014-04-01

    To explore how microbial community composition and function varies within a coral reef ecosystem, we performed metagenomic sequencing of seawater from four niches across Heron Island Reef, within the Great Barrier Reef. Metagenomes were sequenced from seawater samples associated with (1) the surface of the coral species Acropora palifera, (2) the surface of the coral species Acropora aspera, (3) the sandy substrate within the reef lagoon and (4) open water, outside of the reef crest. Microbial composition and metabolic function differed substantially between the four niches. The taxonomic profile showed a clear shift from an oligotroph-dominated community (e.g. SAR11, Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus) in the open water and sandy substrate niches, to a community characterised by an increased frequency of copiotrophic bacteria (e.g. Vibrio, Pseudoalteromonas, Alteromonas) in the coral seawater niches. The metabolic potential of the four microbial assemblages also displayed significant differences, with the open water and sandy substrate niches dominated by genes associated with core house-keeping processes such as amino acid, carbohydrate and protein metabolism as well as DNA and RNA synthesis and metabolism. In contrast, the coral surface seawater metagenomes had an enhanced frequency of genes associated with dynamic processes including motility and chemotaxis, regulation and cell signalling. These findings demonstrate that the composition and function of microbial communities are highly variable between niches within coral reef ecosystems and that coral reefs host heterogeneous microbial communities that are likely shaped by habitat structure, presence of animal hosts and local biogeochemical conditions. PMID:24477921

  20. Climatic Niche Conservatism and Biogeographical Non-Equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae), an Invasive Plant in the Chilean Mediterranean Region

    PubMed Central

    Peña-Gómez, Francisco T.; Guerrero, Pablo C.; Bizama, Gustavo; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O.

    2014-01-01

    Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche

  1. What explains patterns of species richness? The relative importance of climatic-niche evolution, morphological evolution, and ecological limits in salamanders.

    PubMed

    Kozak, Kenneth H; Wiens, John J

    2016-08-01

    A major goal of evolutionary biology and ecology is to understand why species richness varies among clades. Previous studies have suggested that variation in richness among clades might be related to variation in rates of morphological evolution among clades (e.g., body size and shape). Other studies have suggested that richness patterns might be related to variation in rates of climatic-niche evolution. However, few studies, if any, have tested the relative importance of these variables in explaining patterns of richness among clades. Here, we test their relative importance among major clades of Plethodontidae, the most species-rich family of salamanders. Earlier studies have suggested that climatic-niche evolution explains patterns of diversification among plethodontid clades, whereas rates of morphological evolution do not. A subsequent study stated that rates of morphological evolution instead explained patterns of species richness among plethodontid clades (along with "ecological limits" on richness of clades, leading to saturation of clades with species, given limited resources). However, they did not consider climatic-niche evolution. Using phylogenetic multiple regression, we show that rates of climatic-niche evolution explain most variation in richness among plethodontid clades, whereas rates of morphological evolution do not. We find little evidence that ecological limits explain patterns of richness among plethodontid clades. We also test whether rates of morphological and climatic-niche evolution are correlated, and find that they are not. Overall, our results help explain richness patterns in a major amphibian group and provide possibly the first test of the relative importance of climatic niches and morphological evolution in explaining diversity patterns. PMID:27547367

  2. Solar variability, weather, and climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Advances in the understanding of possible effects of solar variations on weather and climate are most likely to emerge by addressing the subject in terms of fundamental physical principles of atmospheric sciences and solar-terrestrial physis. The limits of variability of solar inputs to the atmosphere and the depth in the atmosphere to which these variations have significant effects are determined.

  3. Is adaptation to climate change really constrained in niche specialists?

    PubMed

    van Heerwaarden, Belinda; Sgrò, Carla M

    2014-09-01

    Species with restricted distributions make up the vast majority of biodiversity. Recent evidence suggests that Drosophila species with restricted tropical distributions lack genetic variation in the key trait of desiccation resistance. It has therefore been predicted that tropically restricted species will be limited in their evolutionary response to future climatic changes and will face higher risks of extinction. However, these assessments have been made using extreme levels of desiccation stress (less than 10% relative humidity (RH)) that extend well beyond the changes projected for the wet tropics under climate change scenarios over the next 30 years. Here, we show that significant evolutionary responses to less extreme (35% RH) but more ecologically realistic levels of climatic change and desiccation stress are in fact possible in two species of rainforest restricted Drosophila. Evolution may indeed be an important means by which sensitive rainforest-restricted species are able to mitigate the effects of climate change. PMID:25056620

  4. The fate of the Arctic seaweed Fucus distichus under climate change: an ecological niche modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Smolina, Irina; Coyer, James A; Hoarau, Galice

    2016-03-01

    Rising temperatures are predicted to melt all perennial ice cover in the Arctic by the end of this century, thus opening up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species. Canopy-forming seaweeds provide an ideal system to predict the potential impact of climate-change on rocky-shore ecosystems, given their direct dependence on temperature and their key role in the ecological system. Our primary objective was to predict the climate-change induced range-shift of Fucus distichus, the dominant canopy-forming macroalga in the Arctic and subarctic rocky intertidal. More specifically, we asked: which Arctic/subarctic and cold-temperate shores of the northern hemisphere will display the greatest distributional change of F. distichus and how will this affect niche overlap with seaweeds from temperate regions? We used the program MAXENT to develop correlative ecological niche models with dominant range-limiting factors and 169 occurrence records. Using three climate-change scenarios, we projected habitat suitability of F. distichus - and its niche overlap with three dominant temperate macroalgae - until year 2200. Maximum sea surface temperature was identified as the most important factor in limiting the fundamental niche of F. distichus. Rising temperatures were predicted to have low impact on the species' southern distribution limits, but to shift its northern distribution limits poleward into the high Arctic. In cold-temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south. While climate-change threatens intertidal seaweeds in warm-temperate regions, seaweed meadows will likely flourish in the Arctic intertidal. Although this enriches biodiversity and opens up new seaweed-harvesting grounds, it will also trigger unpredictable changes in the structure and functioning of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem. PMID:27087933

  5. Solar variability and Earth's climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozelot, J. P.; Lefebvre, S.

    2003-04-01

    The purpose of this lecture is to investigate whether it is possible to found a solar signature on the Earth’s climatic changes over long period of times. Recent studies indicate that small but persistent variations in solar energy flux may play a role in climatic changes; one of the most important concerns are the changes in the irradiance. If it is known that the irradiance variability have an effect on the upper UV layers on the atmosphere of the Earth, the mechanisms that redistribute this variability on the lower layers, seat of the climate, are not well known. We will discuss here some aspects which are currently at the basis of some interesting scientific debates. The first one points out the irradiance modeling, for which it is not exclude that small variations (but temporally unrelenting) of the solar radius may contribute for a non negligible part of the irradiance changes. We will show how recent measurements of the solar shape (the helioid), well explained theoretically, affect solar luminosity models. Such valuable models of the irradiance are obviously valuable inputs on the stratosphere. To this respect, a remarkable new correlation, between irradiance and the stratospheric temperature, will be presented. The second point will address new indications of the solar origin in the total atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) of the entire Earth. It is not impossible that solar-AAM-climate connections are possible in modulating solar effects on flow interactions in the atmosphere. These could, for example, account for mechanisms by which climate system can amplify a weak solar input. In the last section of this lecture, we will present how future space measurements (PICARD satellite) will contribute to set up new insights into the problem of climate variability, mainly by accurately measuring the so-called W parameter (ratio between irradiance and diameter relative variations).

  6. Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mörner, N.-A.

    The thermal conditions on Planet Earth are primarily the function of the energy in- put from the Sun. The variations in climate on Planet Earth is, however, primarily the function of the redistribution and reorganisation of the internal terrestrial heat balance. Solar variability may affect terrestrial climate (1) by direct changes in irradiance, a fac- tor, however, which is known to be very small, (2) by the solar wind interaction with the geomagnetic field increasing and decreasing the shielding capacity to infalling cosmic-ray, which is known to affect the formation of clouds thereby also affecting global terrestrial climat, and (3) by the solar wind interaction with the geomagnetic field leading to changes in the EarthSs rate of rotation which affect ocean and atmo- sphere circulation thereby also affecting global climate (and sea level). INTAS Project 97-301008 concerns the interaction between geomagnetic field changes and global climatic changes. No doubts, we see important links between externally and internally driven changes in the EarthSs geomagnetic field and changes in terrestrial climate.

  7. Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Global climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe. Methods Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of “maximum entropy”, as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used. Results In both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species. Conclusions Our models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non

  8. Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

    2009-01-01

    Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent

  9. Diagnostic studies of climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Bradley, R.S. ); Diaz, H.F. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports on the progress on the first year of the diagnostic studies of climate variability project. The objectives were as follows: to initiate studies of long-term climatic variability, using long instrumental data sets, and proxy records; to examine regional changes of temperature and precipitation over the past century in relation to changes at the hemispheric and global scale; and to produce a map-based archive of monthly and seasonal temperature, precipitation and pressure data fore display on PCs. Significant progress has been made in all of these areas. This paper summarizes results of the work accomplished. Part A summarizes results of the work accomplished. Part A summarizes the work accomplished primarily at the University of Massachusetts. Part B summarizes work primarily conducted at NOAA/ERL. A list of papers published, in press, or in preparation then follows. Appendix 1 is a description of the proposed research in 1992--93, and a proposed budget.

  10. Reanalyses and Essential Climate Variables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bosilovich, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Reanalyses are a potentially powerful climate data collection driven by observations but also subjected to model bias. Additionally, reanalyses can produce and use essential climate variables in a consistent method. For example, snow cover and soil moisture (among other variables) will eventually be assimilated into the reanalyses, but also provide crucial validation data. Sea surface temperature can be prescribed or assimilated in a coupled reanalysis. The strength of reanalysis lies in the ancillary data that is produced from the modeling components but not routinely observed thereby providing more complete Earth system information. The weakness in this concept is that the model derived data can be affected by model bias and may also change relative to the available observing system. Here, we will review the status of existing reanalyses and the ECVs being considered for the workshop. Purpose of Michael Bosilovich's contribution to the workshop: Michael Bosilovich will represent US reanalysis community in this international discussion of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and the relative nature of reanalyses to ECVs.

  11. A framework for using niche models to estimate impacts of climate change on species distributions.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Robert P

    2013-09-01

    Predicting species geographic distributions in the future is an important yet exceptionally challenging endeavor. Overall, it requires a two-step process: (1) a niche model characterizing suitability, applied to projections of future conditions and linked to (2) a dispersal/demographic simulation estimating the species' future occupied distribution. Despite limitations, for the vast majority of species, correlative approaches are the most feasible avenue for building niche models. In addition to myriad technical issues regarding model building, researchers should follow critical principles for selecting predictor variables and occurrence data, demonstrating effective performance in prediction across space, and extrapolating into nonanalog conditions. Many of these principles relate directly to the niche space, dispersal/demographic noise, biotic noise, and human noise assumptions defined here. Issues requiring progress include modeling interactions between abiotic variables, integrating biotic variables, considering genetic heterogeneity, and quantifying uncertainty. Once built, the niche model identifying currently suitable conditions must be processed to approximate the areas that the species occupies. That estimate serves as a seed for the simulation of persistence, dispersal, and establishment in future suitable areas. The dispersal/demographic simulation also requires data regarding the species' dispersal ability and demography, scenarios for future land use, and the capability of considering multiple interacting species simultaneously. PMID:25098379

  12. Tropical deforestation and climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voldoire, A.; Royer, J. F.

    A new tropical deforestation experiment has been performed, with the ARPEGE-Climat atmospheric global circulation model associated with the ISBA land surface scheme. Simulations are forced with observed monthly mean sea surface temperatures and thus inter-annual variability of the ocean system is taken into account. The local mean response to deforestation over Amazonia and Africa is relatively weak compared with most published studies and compensation effects are particularly important. However, a large increase in daily maximum temperatures is obtained during the dry season when soil water stress dominates. The analysis of daily variability shows that the distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperatures are noticeably modified with an increase in extreme temperatures. Daily precipitation amounts also indicate a weakening of the convective activity. Conditions for the onset of convection are less frequently gathered, particularly over southern Amazonia and western equatorial Africa. At the same time, the intensity of convective events is reduced, especially over equatorial deforested regions. The inter-annual variability is also enhanced. For instance, El Niño events generally induce a large drying over northern Amazonia, which is well reproduced in the control simulation. In the deforested experiment, a positive feedback effect leads to a strong intensification of this drying and a subsequent increase in surface temperature. The change in variability as a response to deforestation can be more crucial than the change of the mean climate since more intense extremes could be more detrimental for agriculture than an increase in mean temperatures.

  13. Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

  14. Climate-mediated cooperation promotes niche expansion in burying beetles

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Syuan-Jyun; Rubenstein, Dustin R; Chen, Bo-Fei; Chan, Shih-Fan; Liu, Jian-Nan; Liu, Mark; Hwang, Wenbe; Yang, Ping-Shih; Shen, Sheng-Feng

    2014-01-01

    The ability to form cooperative societies may explain why humans and social insects have come to dominate the earth. Here we examine the ecological consequences of cooperation by quantifying the fitness of cooperative (large groups) and non-cooperative (small groups) phenotypes in burying beetles (Nicrophorus nepalensis) along an elevational and temperature gradient. We experimentally created large and small groups along the gradient and manipulated interspecific competition with flies by heating carcasses. We show that cooperative groups performed as thermal generalists with similarly high breeding success at all temperatures and elevations, whereas non-cooperative groups performed as thermal specialists with higher breeding success only at intermediate temperatures and elevations. Studying the ecological consequences of cooperation may not only help us to understand why so many species of social insects have conquered the earth, but also to determine how climate change will affect the success of these and other social species, including our own. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.02440.001 PMID:24842999

  15. High intraspecific variability in the functional niche of a predator is associated with ontogenetic shift and individual specialization

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Tian; Villéger, Sébastien; Lek, Sovan; Cucherousset, Julien

    2014-01-01

    Investigations on the functional niche of organisms have primarily focused on differences among species and tended to neglect the potential effects of intraspecific variability despite the fact that its potential ecological and evolutionary importance is now widely recognized. In this study, we measured the distribution of functional traits in an entire population of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) to quantify the magnitude of intraspecific variability in functional traits and niche (size, position, and overlap) between age classes. Stable isotope analyses (δ13C and δ15N) were also used to determine the association between individual trophic ecology and intraspecific functional trait variability. We observed that functional traits were highly variable within the population (mean coefficient variation: 15.62% ± 1.78% SE) and predominantly different between age classes. In addition, functional and trophic niche overlap between age classes was extremely low. Differences in functional niche between age classes were associated with strong changes in trophic niche occurring during ontogeny while, within age classes, differences among individuals were likely driven by trophic specialization. Each age class filled only a small portion of the total functional niche of the population and age classes occupied distinct portions in the functional space, indicating the existence of ontogenetic specialists with different functional roles within the population. The high amplitude of intraspecific variability in functional traits and differences in functional niche position among individuals reported here supports the recent claims for an individual-based approach in functional ecology. PMID:25558359

  16. Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, J.; Hoerling, M. P.; Folland, C. K.

    INTRODUCTION WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT REGIONAL - CLIMATE? WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS THAT GOVERN NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION VARIABILITY? Atmospheric Processes Ocean Forcing of the Atmosphere CONCLUDING COMMENTS ON THE OTHER ASPECTS OF NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE - VARIABILITY REFERENCES

  17. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review.

    PubMed

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-11-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  18. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    PubMed Central

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  19. Timing of climate variability and grassland productivity

    PubMed Central

    Craine, Joseph M.; Nippert, Jesse B.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Skibbe, Adam M.; Hutchinson, Stacy L.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.

    2012-01-01

    Future climates are forecast to include greater precipitation variability and more frequent heat waves, but the degree to which the timing of climate variability impacts ecosystems is uncertain. In a temperate, humid grassland, we examined the seasonal impacts of climate variability on 27 y of grass productivity. Drought and high-intensity precipitation reduced grass productivity only during a 110-d period, whereas high temperatures reduced productivity only during 25 d in July. The effects of drought and heat waves declined over the season and had no detectable impact on grass productivity in August. If these patterns are general across ecosystems, predictions of ecosystem response to climate change will have to account not only for the magnitude of climate variability but also for its timing. PMID:22331914

  20. Global Climate Niche Estimates for Bioenergy Crops and Invasive Species of Agronomic Origin: Potential Problems and Opportunities

    PubMed Central

    Barney, Jacob N.; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

    2011-01-01

    The global push towards a more biomass-based energy sector is ramping up efforts to adopt regionally appropriate high-yielding crops. As potential bioenergy crops are being moved around the world an assessment of the climatic suitability would be a prudent first step in identifying suitable areas of productivity and risk. Additionally, this assessment also provides a necessary step in evaluating the invasive potential of bioenergy crops, which present a possible negative externality to the bioeconomy. Therefore, we provide the first global climate niche assessment for the major graminaceous (9), herbaceous (3), and woody (4) bioenergy crops. Additionally, we contrast these with climate niche assessments for North American invasive species that were originally introduced for agronomic purposes as examples of well-intentioned introductions gone awry. With few exceptions (e.g., Saccharum officinarum, Pennisetum purpureum), the bioenergy crops exhibit broad climatic tolerance, which allows tremendous flexibility in choosing crops, especially in areas with high summer rainfall and long growing seasons (e.g., southeastern US, Amazon Basin, eastern Australia). Unsurprisingly, the invasive species of agronomic origin have very similar global climate niche profiles as the proposed bioenergy crops, also demonstrating broad climatic tolerance. The ecoregional evaluation of bioenergy crops and known invasive species demonstrates tremendous overlap at both high (EI≥30) and moderate (EI≥20) climate suitability. The southern and western US ecoregions support the greatest number of invasive species of agronomic origin, especially the Southeastern USA Plains, Mixed Woods Plains, and Mediterranean California. Many regions of the world have a suitable climate for several bioenergy crops allowing selection of agro-ecoregionally appropriate crops. This model knowingly ignores the complex biotic interactions and edaphic conditions, but provides a robust assessment of the climate

  1. Global climate niche estimates for bioenergy crops and invasive species of agronomic origin: potential problems and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Barney, Jacob N; DiTomaso, Joseph M

    2011-01-01

    The global push towards a more biomass-based energy sector is ramping up efforts to adopt regionally appropriate high-yielding crops. As potential bioenergy crops are being moved around the world an assessment of the climatic suitability would be a prudent first step in identifying suitable areas of productivity and risk. Additionally, this assessment also provides a necessary step in evaluating the invasive potential of bioenergy crops, which present a possible negative externality to the bioeconomy. Therefore, we provide the first global climate niche assessment for the major graminaceous (9), herbaceous (3), and woody (4) bioenergy crops. Additionally, we contrast these with climate niche assessments for North American invasive species that were originally introduced for agronomic purposes as examples of well-intentioned introductions gone awry. With few exceptions (e.g., Saccharum officinarum, Pennisetum purpureum), the bioenergy crops exhibit broad climatic tolerance, which allows tremendous flexibility in choosing crops, especially in areas with high summer rainfall and long growing seasons (e.g., southeastern US, Amazon Basin, eastern Australia). Unsurprisingly, the invasive species of agronomic origin have very similar global climate niche profiles as the proposed bioenergy crops, also demonstrating broad climatic tolerance. The ecoregional evaluation of bioenergy crops and known invasive species demonstrates tremendous overlap at both high (EI≥30) and moderate (EI≥20) climate suitability. The southern and western US ecoregions support the greatest number of invasive species of agronomic origin, especially the Southeastern USA Plains, Mixed Woods Plains, and Mediterranean California. Many regions of the world have a suitable climate for several bioenergy crops allowing selection of agro-ecoregionally appropriate crops. This model knowingly ignores the complex biotic interactions and edaphic conditions, but provides a robust assessment of the climate

  2. Mesoscale flows and climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ólafsson, Haraldur; Pálmason, Bolli; Vary, Anne; Schettino, Camille; Thomas, Aurelien; Nína Petersen, Guðrún; Ágústsson, Hálfdán

    2016-04-01

    Thermally driven mesoscale flows, in particular the sea breeze, and their importance for the climate of a mid-latitude island is assessed by observations from Iceland and numerical simulations over idealized and real topography. Subsequently, an extended summertime period is simulated with surface conditions that correspond to current climate as well as surface conditions that are plausible in a future warmer climate with increased vegetation. A change in the albedo and the Bowen ratio results in changes in the sea breeze, leading to mean temperature changes whose magnitude is more than half the predicted temperature increase in the 21st Century by some GCMs.

  3. Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches.

    PubMed

    Fischer, D; Thomas, S M; Neteler, M; Tjaden, N B; Beierkuhnlein, C

    2014-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments. PMID:24556349

  4. Applying the concept of the ecological niche and a macroecological approach to understand how climate influences zooplankton: Advantages, assumptions, limitations and requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaugrand, Gregory; Mackas, Dave; Goberville, Eric

    2013-04-01

    Ecosystem effects of climate change have been detected in all components of the Earth System. In the marine biosphere, climate-change responses have caused large and well-documented biogeographical and phenological shifts, which have in turn altered local dominance hierarchies, and also the structure, diversity and functional linkages within regional marine ecosystems. There is an urgent need to improve both our knowledge of the global-scale effects of climate change on marine biodiversity and our capacity to project future impacts. But extrapolation of previously estimated changes to additional places and to future conditions is complicated by non-linear responses to environmental variables, and also by complexities of multivariate interaction that can lead to tipping-points. In this paper, we show how observations from widely-spaced locations can be combined to characterise the ecological niche of a species, and how the concept of the niche can be used to understand and project how climate-induced changes in temperatures will alter marine zooplankton both locally and globally. As an example to illustrate our view, we apply this framework to the relatively well-known copepod Calanus finmarchicus. Our results suggest that climate change will strongly affect the local abundance of this species in the North Atlantic Ocean by the end of this century. Predicted changes are large (e.g. increase by ±6-10-fold of the temporal changes in the abundance of C. finmarchicus) and vary as a function of the magnitude of warming and the local sign and steepness of the thermal niche. Substantial rates of change hold even under optimistic climatic scenarii. After reviewing the main limitations of the niche concept in bioclimatological research, we argue that the application of this concept in ecology and bioclimatology might nevertheless represent the best tool currently available to scientists to discern and anticipate the effect of global climate change on species and ecosystems

  5. Processes Understanding of Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prömmel, Kerstin; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    The realistic representation of decadal climate variability in the models is essential for the quality of decadal climate predictions. Therefore, the understanding of those processes leading to decadal climate variability needs to be improved. Several of these processes are already included in climate models but their importance has not yet completely been clarified. The simulation of other processes requires sometimes a higher resolution of the model or an extension by additional subsystems. This is addressed within one module of the German research program "MiKlip II - Decadal Climate Predictions" (http://www.fona-miklip.de/en/) with a focus on the following processes. Stratospheric processes and their impact on the troposphere are analysed regarding the climate response to aerosol perturbations caused by volcanic eruptions and the stratospheric decadal variability due to solar forcing, climate change and ozone recovery. To account for the interaction between changing ozone concentrations and climate a computationally efficient ozone chemistry module is developed and implemented in the MiKlip prediction system. The ocean variability and air-sea interaction are analysed with a special focus on the reduction of the North Atlantic cold bias. In addition, the predictability of the oceanic carbon uptake with a special emphasis on the underlying mechanism is investigated. This addresses a combination of physical, biological and chemical processes.

  6. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela

  7. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Carvalho, Bruno M.; Ready, Paul D.

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and

  8. Tracking a medically important spider: climate change, ecological niche modeling, and the brown recluse (Loxosceles reclusa).

    PubMed

    Saupe, Erin E; Papes, Monica; Selden, Paul A; Vetter, Richard S

    2011-01-01

    Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae), causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses. PMID:21464985

  9. Tracking a Medically Important Spider: Climate Change, Ecological Niche Modeling, and the Brown Recluse (Loxosceles reclusa)

    PubMed Central

    Saupe, Erin E.; Papes, Monica; Selden, Paul A.; Vetter, Richard S.

    2011-01-01

    Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae), causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses. PMID:21464985

  10. Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydrological Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Dam, Jan C.

    2003-10-01

    Water is going to be one of the key, if not the most critical, environmental issues in the twenty-first century because of the escalation in socio-economic pressures on the environment in general. Any future climate change or climate variability will only accentuate such pressures. This volume initially follows the perspective of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to infer possible changes in hydrological regimes and water quality based on the outputs from various scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs). In subsequent chapters, the possible effects of climate change on the hydrology of each of the continents is examined. The book concludes with an overview of hydrological models for use in the evaluation of the impacts of climate change. It will provide a valuable guide for environmental planners and policy-makers, and will also be of use to all students and researchers interested in the possible effects of climate change.

  11. Modelling future no-analogue climate distributions: A world-wide phytoclimatic niche-based survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-López, Javier M.; Allué, Carmen

    2013-02-01

    By the end of the 21st century in some zones the accelerating climate change affecting this planet will create factorial combinations unknown at this time, which will give rise to climates unlike the present ones. This study presents a numerical and cartographic evaluation of these no-analogue climatic zones, whose consequences for existing ecosystems are quite unpredictable, using a method based on the convex hull in a climate hyperspace and 12 future climate projections for 2080. The percentage of the world surface that will foreseeably be occupied by no-analogue climates by 2080 ranges between 3.5% and 17.5%. The bulk of the no-analogue surface area will foreseeably be located in the Northern hemisphere (> 80%), with more elevated risk in tropical and subtropical latitudes between 10 degrees latitude South and 30 degrees latitude North, preferentially in Africa, South America, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian Peninsula, the North-West of the Gulf of Mexico, Eastern China and Polynesia. Mean temperatures would appear to be the variables most influencing the process. This affects 32 of the 34 hotspots defined for the planet, especially tropical forests in South America and Asia. 6.8% of these conservation-critical surfaces are predicted as no-analogue areas. Population density is greater in the areas that will probably develop no-analogue climates in the future than in those that will not.

  12. Climatic Variability In Tropical Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seneviratne, L. W.

    2003-04-01

    atmospheric condition and hence reduces rainfall for about 1.5 years in tropical countries. This was proved in 2001. This forecast was presented as a paper in 1998 Stockholm Water Symposium. The results were true for Brazil as well. The danger is now over when the episode is relaxed. Second half of 2002 was heavily wet and all the tanks in Sri Lanka except Kirindioya complex in Hambanthoa area got filled. This condition was seen in 1997 where all tanks got filled. El Nino analysts declared 1997 as a drought year as the previous year had experienced warming in Pacific Ocean. Southern Oscillation events are now dissociating to conformity. Discussion Hambanthoa District remained in the dry zone of Sri Lanka for 2000 years as the soil forms expressed as reddish brown earths. Original kingdoms had its base in Anuradhapura in Northcentral Province and Magama in Hambanthota district. Tools used by contemporary farmers were not powerful to use enormous water resources in wet zone. A system of diversion dams and use of run of the river irrigation has proved as the main criteria of that era. Diversion dams and canal projects were in existence. The diversion dams with special shape was mistaken by british surveyors and marked as broken dams in plans. DLOMendis later identified these as effective deflecting dams. The purpose was to wet the area to do cultivation. This system of wetting the land was suitable for dry climates with low rainfall. High technology was introduced by Irrigation Department to construct several reservoirs in Hambanthota. This was planned after the insufficient water use of Ellagala anicut from Kirindi Oya. Next step was to plan a reservoir project at Lunugamvehera dam site. Precipitation data available for 50 years were studied and a reservoir was designed for 20 000acres of paddy. It was planned to cultivate rice for Maha season and other field crops for Yala season. Cultivation commenced in 1985 and the farmers had enough water for 20000acres including

  13. Weather variability, climatic change, and soybean production

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, L.M.

    1985-01-01

    A crop/weather model was used to determine the effect of changing climate and weather variability on soybean production in the Corn Belt. A cooling trend from the 1930s to the 1970s was accompanied by an upward trend in July plus August rainfall. There was decreased weather variability from the 1930s to 1973 and greatly increased weather variability after 1973. Improved weather from 1930 to 1972 increased soybean yields 3 bushels/acre. Higher intensity rainfalls increased in Illinois and Iowa after 1970.

  14. Environmental Variables Shaping the Ecological Niche of Thaumarchaeota in Soil: Direct and Indirect Causal Effects

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Jin-Kyung; Cho, Jae-Chang

    2015-01-01

    To find environmental variables (EVs) shaping the ecological niche of the archaeal phylum Thaumarchaeota in terrestrial environments, we determined the abundance of Thaumarchaeota in various soil samples using real-time PCR targeting thaumarchaeotal 16S rRNA gene sequences. We employed our previously developed primer, THAUM-494, which had greater coverage for Thaumarchaeota and lower tolerance to nonthaumarchaeotal taxa than previous Thaumarchaeota-directed primers. The relative abundance estimates (RVs) of Thaumarchaeota (RTHAUM), Archaea (RARCH), and Bacteria (RBACT) were subjected to a series of statistical analyses. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed a significant (p < 0.05) canonical relationship between RVs and EVs. Negative causal relationships between RTHAUM and nutrient level–related EVs were observed in an RDA biplot. These negative relationships were further confirmed by correlation and regression analyses. Total nitrogen content (TN) appeared to be the EV that affected RTHAUM most strongly, and total carbon content (TC), which reflected the content of organic matter (OM), appeared to be the EV that affected it least. However, in the path analysis, a path model indicated that TN might be a mediator EV that could be controlled directly by the OM. Additionally, another path model implied that water content (WC) might also indirectly affect RTHAUM by controlling ammonium nitrogen (NH4+-N) level through ammonification. Thus, although most directly affected by NH4+-N, RTHAUM could be ultimately determined by OM content, suggesting that Thaumarchaeota could prefer low-OM or low-WC conditions, because either of these EVs could subsequently result in low levels of NH4+-N in soil. PMID:26241328

  15. Novel trophic niches drive variable progress towards ecological speciation within an adaptive radiation of pupfishes.

    PubMed

    Martin, Christopher H; Feinstein, Laura C

    2014-04-01

    Adaptive radiation is recognized by a rapid burst of phenotypic, ecological and species diversification. However, it is unknown whether different species within an adaptive radiation evolve reproductive isolation at different rates. We compared patterns of genetic differentiation between nascent species within an adaptive radiation of Cyprinodon pupfishes using genotyping by sequencing. Similar to classic adaptive radiations, this clade exhibits rapid morphological diversification rates and two species are novel trophic specialists, a scale-eater and hard-shelled prey specialist (durophage), yet the radiation is <10 000 years old. Both specialists and an abundant generalist species all coexist in the benthic zone of lakes on San Salvador Island, Bahamas. Based on 13 912 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we found consistent differences in genetic differentiation between each specialist species and the generalist across seven lakes. The scale-eater showed the greatest genetic differentiation and clustered by species across lakes, whereas durophage populations often clustered with sympatric generalist populations, consistent with parallel speciation across lakes. However, we found strong evidence of admixture between durophage populations in different lakes, supporting a single origin of this species and genome-wide introgression with sympatric generalist populations. We conclude that the scale-eater is further along the speciation-with-gene-flow continuum than the durophage and suggest that different adaptive landscapes underlying these two niche environments drive variable progress towards speciation within the same habitat. Our previous measurements of fitness surfaces in these lakes support this conclusion: the scale-eating fitness peak may be more distant than the durophage peak on the complex adaptive landscape driving adaptive radiation. PMID:24393262

  16. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and

  17. Climate change alters the trophic niche of a declining apex marine predator.

    PubMed

    Bond, Alexander L; Lavers, Jennifer L

    2014-07-01

    Changes in the world's oceans have altered nutrient flow, and affected the viability of predator populations when prey species become unavailable. These changes are integrated into the tissues of apex predators over space and time and can be quantified using stable isotopes in the inert feathers of historical and contemporary avian specimens. We measured δ(13) C and δ(15) N values in Flesh-footed Shearwaters (Puffinus carneipes) from Western and South Australia from 1936-2011. The Flesh-footed Shearwaters more than doubled their trophic niche (from 3.91 ± 1.37 ‰(2) to 10.00 ± 1.79 ‰(2) ), and dropped an entire trophic level in 75 years (predicted δ(15) N decreased from +16.9 ‰ to + 13.5 ‰, and δ(13) C from -16.9 ‰ to -17.9 ‰) - the largest change in δ(15) N yet reported in any marine bird, suggesting a relatively rapid shift in the composition of the Indian Ocean food web, or changes in baseline δ(13) C and δ(15) N values. A stronger El Niño-Southern Oscillation results in a weaker Leeuwin Current in Western Australia, and decreased Flesh-footed Shearwater δ(13) C and δ(15) N. Current climate forecasts predict this trend to continue, leading to increased oceanic 'tropicalization' and potentially competition between Flesh-footed Shearwaters and more tropical sympatric species with expanding ranges. Flesh-footed Shearwater populations are declining, and current conservation measures aimed primarily at bycatch mitigation are not restoring populations. Widespread shifts in foraging, as shown here, may explain some of the reported decline. An improved understanding and ability to mitigate the impacts of global climactic changes is therefore critical to the long-term sustainability of this declining species. PMID:24615959

  18. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

    PubMed Central

    Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32–39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability. PMID:25609225

  19. Climate Change and Risk of Leishmaniasis in North America: Predictions from Ecological Niche Models of Vector and Reservoir Species

    PubMed Central

    González, Camila; Wang, Ophelia; Strutz, Stavana E.; González-Salazar, Constantino; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2010-01-01

    Background Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada), leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis. Methods and Findings The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica), three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus), and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana) for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed vector and

  20. Prioritizing Global Observations Along Essential Climate Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bojinski, Stephan; Richter, Carolin

    2010-12-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Secretariat, housed within the World Meteorological Organization, released in August 2010 updated guidance for priority actions worldwide in support of observations of GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). This guidance states that full achievement of the recommendations in the 2010 Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos­138.pdf) is required to ensure that countries are able to understand and predict climate change and its impacts and manage their response throughout the 21st century and beyond. GCOS is sponsored by the United Nations and the International Council for Science (ICSU) and is an internationally coordinated network of observing systems and a program of activities that support and improve the network, which is designed to meet evolving national and international requirements for climate observations. One of the main objectives of GCOS is to sustain observations into the future to allow evaluation of how climate is changing, so that informed decisions can be made on prevention, mitigation, and adaptation strategies. GCOS priorities are based on the belief that observations are crucial to supporting the research needed to refine understanding of the climate system and its changes, to initialize predictions on time scales out to decades, and to develop the models used to make these predictions and longer­term scenario-based projections. Observations are also needed to assess social and economic vulnerabilities and to support related actions needed across a broad range of societal sectors by underpinning emerging climate services.

  1. Space-time structure of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laepple, Thomas; Reschke, Maria; Huybers, Peter; Rehfeld, Kira

    2016-04-01

    The spatial scale of climate variability is closely linked to the temporal scale. Whereas fast variations such as weather are regional, glacial-interglacial cycles appear to be globally coherent. Quantifying the relationship between local and large-scale climate variations is essential for mapping the extent of past climate changes. Larger spatial scales of climate variations on longer time scales are expected if one views the atmosphere and oceans as primarily diffusive with respect to heat. On the other hand, the interaction of a dynamical system with spatially variable boundary conditions --- for example: topography, gradients in insolation, and variations in rotational effects --- will lead to spatially heterogeneous structures that are largely independent of time scale. It has been argued that the increase in spatial scales continues across all time scales [Mitchell, 1976], but up to now, the space-time structure of variations beyond the decadal scale is basically unexplored. Here, we attempt to estimate the spatial extent of temperature changes up to millennial time-scales using instrumental observations, paleo-observations and climate model simulations. Although instrumental and climate model data show an increase in spatial scale towards slower variations, paleo-proxy data, if interpreted as temperature signals, lead to ambiguous results. An analysis of a global Holocene stack [Marcott et al., 2013], for example, suggests a jump towards more localized patterns when leaving the instrumental time scale. Localization contradicts physical expectations and may instead reflect the presence of various types of noise. Turning the problem around, and imposing a consistent space-time structure across instruments and proxy records allows us to constrain the interpretation of the climate signal in proxy records. In the case of the Holocene stack, preliminary results suggest that the time-uncertainty on the Holocene records would have to be much larger than published in

  2. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  3. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalaacchi, Antonio J.

    1998-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL- FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few shiptracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  4. Predictability of Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Impacts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, M.

    2013-12-01

    Predictability of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) climate variations and climate impacts on time scales of 1-10 years is discussed, using a global linear inverse model (LIM) as an empirical benchmark for decadal surface temperature forecast skill. Constructed from the observed simultaneous and 1-yr lag covariability statistics of annually averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and surface (2 m) land temperature global anomalies during 1901-2009, the LIM has hindcast skill for leads of 2-5 yr and 6-9 yr comparable to and sometimes even better than skill of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model hindcasts initialized annually over the period 1960-2000 and has skill far better than damped persistence (e.g., a local univariate AR1 process). Pronounced similarity in geographical variations of skill between LIM and CMIP5 hindcasts suggests similarity in their sources of skill as well, supporting additional evaluation of LIM predictability. For forecast leads above 1-2 yr, LIM skill almost entirely results from three nonorthogonal patterns: one corresponding to the secular trend and two more, each with about 10-yr decorrelation time scales but no trend, that represent most of the predictable portions of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) indices, respectively. In contrast, for forecasts greater than about two years, ENSO acts as noise and degrades forecast skill. These results suggest that current coupled model decadal forecasts may not yet have much skill beyond that captured by multivariate, predictably linear dynamics. A particular focus will be on the predictability of the PDO, which represents the dominant mode of Pacific decadal SST variability. The PDO is shown to represent a few different physical processes, including wind-driven changes of SSTs that can occur either due to daily weather variability or to tropical forcing, and variations in the North Pacific western boundary

  5. Multiscale Variability of the Monsoon Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishnamurthy, V.

    2005-05-01

    The reliability of weather forecasts is limited to a few days and is mainly determined by the synoptic scale features of the atmosphere. The predictability of weather models depends on the error growth determined by nonlinear terms representing advection. Smaller scale features, such as convection, may also influence the predictability of the synoptic scale forecasts. While the prediction of instantaneous states of the system may be impossible on longer time scale, there is optimism for medium-range and long-range forecasts of time-averaged features of the climate system. Such optimism is based on the observation that slowly-varying boundary forces such as sea surface temperature, soil moisture and snow influence the variability of the atmosphere on a longer time scale, especially in the tropical region. This study discusses the variability of such a tropical climate system, the monsoon, and shows that its variability consists of a combination of large-scale persistent seasonal mean component and intraseasonal variability of different time scales. The spatial variability of these components is also found to consist of different scales. By performing multi-channel singular spectrum analysis of daily rainfall, low-pressure systems, outgoing long-wave radiation and winds, two oscillatory modes with periods of about 45 and 20 days have been identified and shown to correspond to the active and break phases of the monsoon. These two intraseasonal modes, however, do not contribute much to the seasonal mean rainfall. Three other components of the MSSA are identified as the contributors to the seasonal mean rainfall, possibly arising from the influence of slowly-varying boundary forces. The prospect for making accurate long-range forecasts of the monsoon depends on the relative magnitudes of the large-scale seasonally persistent component and the intraseasonal component and on climate model experiments to establish a relation between the two components.

  6. Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.

    PubMed

    Fernández, Miguel; Hamilton, Healy

    2015-01-01

    Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range. PMID:25785858

  7. Ecological Niche Transferability Using Invasive Species as a Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Fernández, Miguel; Hamilton, Healy

    2015-01-01

    Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species’ native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species’ native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger’s I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species’ dynamics in the invaded range. PMID:25785858

  8. Diversification of the cold-adapted butterfly genus Oeneis related to Holarctic biogeography and climatic niche shifts.

    PubMed

    Kleckova, I; Cesanek, M; Fric, Z; Pellissier, L

    2015-11-01

    Both geographical and ecological speciation interact during the evolution of a clade, but the relative contribution of these processes is rarely assessed for cold-dwelling biota. Here, we investigate the role of biogeography and the evolution of ecological traits on the diversification of the Holarctic arcto-alpine butterfly genus Oeneis (Lepidoptera: Satyrinae). We reconstructed the molecular phylogeny of the genus based on one mitochondrial (COI) and three nuclear (GAPDH, RpS5, wingless) genes. We inferred the biogeographical scenario and the ancestral state reconstructions of climatic and habitat requirements. Within the genus, we detected five main species groups corresponding to the taxonomic division and further paraphyletic position of Neominois (syn. n.). Next, we transferred O. aktashi from the hora to the polixenes species group on the bases of molecular relationships. We found that the genus originated in the dry grasslands of the mountains of Central Asia and dispersed over the Beringian Land Bridges to North America several times independently. Holarctic mountains, in particular the Asian Altai Mts. and Sayan Mts., host the oldest lineages and most of the species diversity. Arctic species are more recent, with Pliocene or Pleistocene origin. We detected a strong phylogenetic signal for the climatic niche, where one lineage diversified towards colder conditions. Altogether, our results indicate that both dispersal across geographical areas and occupation of distinct climatic niches promoted the diversification of the Oeneis genus. PMID:26166775

  9. Solar Variability in the Context of Other Climate Forcing Mechanisms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    1999-01-01

    I compare and contrast climate forcings due to solar variability with climate forcings due to other mechanisms of climate change, interpretation of the role of the sun in climate change depends upon climate sensitivity and upon the net forcing by other climate change mechanisms. Among the potential indirect climate forcings due to solar variability, only that due to solar cycle induced ozone changes has been well quantified. There is evidence that the sun has been a significant player in past climate change on decadal to century time scales, and that it has the potential to contribute to climate change in the 21st century.

  10. Ecological niches in sequential generations of eastern North American monarch butterflies (Lepidoptera: Danaidae): the ecology of migration and likely climate change implications.

    PubMed

    Batalden, Rebecca V; Oberhauser, Karen; Peterson, A Townsend

    2007-12-01

    Eastern North American monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus L.) show a series of range shifts during their breeding season. Using ecological niche modeling, we studied the environmental context of these shifts by identifying the ecological conditions that monarchs use in successive summer months. Monarchs use a consistent ecological regimen through the summer, but these conditions contrast strikingly with those used during the winter. Hence, monarchs exhibit niche-following among sequential breeding generations but niche-switching between the breeding and overwintering stages of their annual cycle. We projected their breeding ecological niche onto monthly future climate scenarios, which indicated northward shifts, particularly at the northern extreme of their summer movements, over the next 50 yrs; if both monarchs and their milkweed host plants cannot track these changing climates, monarchs could lose distributional area during critical breeding months. PMID:18284764

  11. Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shinneman, Douglas; Means, Robert E.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with

  12. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    PubMed

    Shinneman, Douglas J; Means, Robert E; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete

  13. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Shinneman, Douglas J.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete

  14. Variable temperature seat climate control system

    DOEpatents

    Karunasiri, Tissa R.; Gallup, David F.; Noles, David R.; Gregory, Christian T.

    1997-05-06

    A temperature climate control system comprises a variable temperature seat, at least one heat pump, at least one heat pump temperature sensor, and a controller. Each heat pump comprises a number of Peltier thermoelectric modules for temperature conditioning the air in a main heat exchanger and a main exchanger fan for passing the conditioned air from the main exchanger to the variable temperature seat. The Peltier modules and each main fan may be manually adjusted via a control switch or a control signal. Additionally, the temperature climate control system may comprise a number of additional temperature sensors to monitor the temperature of the ambient air surrounding the occupant as well as the temperature of the conditioned air directed to the occupant. The controller is configured to automatically regulate the operation of the Peltier modules and/or each main fan according to a temperature climate control logic designed both to maximize occupant comfort during normal operation, and minimize possible equipment damage, occupant discomfort, or occupant injury in the event of a heat pump malfunction.

  15. Climate variability and Port wine quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouveia, Celia; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Dacamara, Carlos

    2010-05-01

    ), suggesting that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Célia Gouveia and Ricardo M. Trigo. "Influence of climate variability on wheat production in Portugal". GeoENV2006- 6th International Conference on Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Rhodes, October, 25-27, 2006 Miranda, P.M.A., F. Coelho, A. R. Tomé, M. A Valente., A. Carvalho, C. Pires, H. O. Pires, V. C. Cabrinha and C. Ramalho (2002) "20th Century Portuguese Climate and Climate Scenarios", in Santos, F.D., K Forbes and R. Moita (eds) Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adptation Measures", 27-83. Gradiva

  16. Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

    2016-03-01

    For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience.

  17. Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

    PubMed Central

    Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

    2016-01-01

    For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience. PMID:26983802

  18. Online Impact Prioritization of Essential Climate Variables on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Barkstrom, B. B.; Roberts, K. P.

    2007-12-01

    The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NCDC Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Team has developed an online prototype that is capable of displaying the "big picture" perspective of all Essential Climate Variable (ECV) impacts on society and value to the IPCC. This prototype ECV-Model provides the ability to visualize global ECV information with options to drill down in great detail. It offers a quantifiable prioritization of ECV impacts that potentially may significantly enhance collaboration with respect to dealing effectively with climate change. The ECV-Model prototype assures anonymity and provides an online input mechanism for subject matter experts and decision makers to access, review and submit: (1) ranking of ECV"s, (2) new ECV's and associated impact categories and (3) feedback about ECV"s, satellites, etc. Input and feedback are vetted by experts before changes or additions are implemented online. The SDS prototype also provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of satellites; and general as well as detailed information in conjunction with imagery. NCDC's version 1.0 release will be available to the public and provide an easy "at-a-glance" interface to rapidly identify gaps and overlaps of satellites and associated instruments monitoring climate change ECV's. The SDS version 1.1 will enhance depiction of gaps and overlaps with instruments associated with In-Situ and Satellites related to ECVs. NOAA's SDS model empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in monitoring climate change ECV's and potentially significantly enhance collaboration.

  19. N-dimensional animal energetic niches clarify behavioural options in a variable marine environment.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Rory P; McMahon, Clive R; Quintana, Flavio; Frere, Esteban; Scolaro, Alejandro; Hays, Graeme C; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2011-02-15

    Animals respond to environmental variation by exhibiting a number of different behaviours and/or rates of activity, which result in corresponding variation in energy expenditure. Successful animals generally maximize efficiency or rate of energy gain through foraging. Quantification of all features that modulate energy expenditure can theoretically be modelled as an animal energetic niche or power envelope; with total power being represented by the vertical axis and n-dimensional horizontal axes representing extents of processes that affect energy expenditure. Such an energetic niche could be used to assess the energetic consequences of animals adopting particular behaviours under various environmental conditions. This value of this approach was tested by constructing a simple mechanistic energetics model based on data collected from recording devices deployed on 41 free-living Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus), foraging from four different colonies in Argentina and consequently catching four different types of prey. Energy expenditure was calculated as a function of total distance swum underwater (horizontal axis 1) and maximum depth reached (horizontal axis 2). The resultant power envelope was invariant, irrespective of colony location, but penguins from the different colonies tended to use different areas of the envelope. The different colony solutions appeared to represent particular behavioural options for exploiting the available prey and demonstrate how penguins respond to environmental circumstance (prey distribution), the energetic consequences that this has for them, and how this affects the balance of energy acquisition through foraging and expenditure strategy. PMID:21270314

  20. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  1. Impact of climate variability on tropospheric ozone.

    PubMed

    Grewe, Volker

    2007-03-01

    A simulation with the climate-chemistry model (CCM) E39/C is presented, which covers both the troposphere and stratosphere dynamics and chemistry during the period 1960 to 1999. Although the CCM, by its nature, is not exactly representing observed day-by-day meteorology, there is an overall model's tendency to correctly reproduce the variability pattern due to an inclusion of realistic external forcings, like observed sea surface temperatures (e.g. El Niño), major volcanic eruption, solar cycle, concentrations of greenhouse gases, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Additionally, climate-chemistry interactions are included, like the impact of ozone, methane, and other species on radiation and dynamics, and the impact of dynamics on emissions (lightning). However, a number of important feedbacks are not yet included (e.g. feedbacks related to biogenic emissions and emissions due to biomass burning). The results show a good representation of the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer, including the ozone hole, which plays an important role for the simulation of natural variability of tropospheric ozone. Anthropogenic NO(x) emissions are included with a step-wise linear trend for each sector, but no interannual variability is included. The application of a number of diagnostics (e.g. marked ozone tracers) allows the separation of the impact of various processes/emissions on tropospheric ozone and shows that the simulated Northern Hemisphere tropospheric ozone budget is not only dominated by nitrogen oxide emissions and other ozone pre-cursors, but also by changes of the stratospheric ozone budget and its flux into the troposphere, which tends to reduce the simulated positive trend in tropospheric ozone due to emissions from industry and traffic during the late 80s and early 90s. For tropical regions the variability in ozone is dominated by variability in lightning (related to ENSO) and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (related to Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric

  2. Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Feigin, Alexander; Loskutov, Evgeny; Kurths, Juergen

    2015-10-01

    We suggest a new nonlinear expansion of space-distributed observational time series. The expansion allows constructing principal nonlinear manifolds holding essential part of observed variability. It yields low-dimensional hidden time series interpreted as internal modes driving observed multivariate dynamics as well as their mapping to a geographic grid. Bayesian optimality is used for selecting relevant structure of nonlinear transformation, including both the number of principal modes and degree of nonlinearity. Furthermore, the optimal characteristic time scale of the reconstructed modes is also found. The technique is applied to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) time series having a duration of 33 years and covering the globe. Three dominant nonlinear modes were extracted from the time series: the first efficiently separates the annual cycle, the second is responsible for ENSO variability, and combinations of the second and the third modes explain substantial parts of Pacific and Atlantic dynamics. A relation of the obtained modes to decadal natural climate variability including current hiatus in global warming is exhibited and discussed.

  3. Using Remote Sensing to Understand Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, J.; Gentine, P.

    2014-12-01

    While a major source of uncertainty in global climate model predictions is due to the coarseness of their resolution, a significant amount of error is also generated due to the lack of information regarding the interactions between atmospheric and land parameters over time. When the behavior of a certain parameter is not clearly understood it is frequently estimated as one specific value while in reality it may vary with time and space. Remote sensing is allowing researchers to better estimate each of these parameters so one can see how they change with time. This study is an effort to improve our knowledge of the inter-annual and seasonal variability in radiation, water and the carbon cycle using remote sensing products on a global scale. By examining monthly data over a multi-year period (data parameter and source are listed in Table 1) for fluorescence, groundwater, net radiation, vegetation indices, precipitation, soil moisture and evapotranspiration, we should be able to determine the behavior and interactions between these parameters and better understand how they vary together seasonally, annually and year to year. With this information it is our hope that global climate models can be improved to better understand what is occurring climatologically in the present as well as more accurately make predictions about future conditions. Table 1. Parameters and Sources Parameter Source Fluorescence Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT)1 Groundwater Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Net Radiation Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Vegetation Indices Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/ Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) Precipitation Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Soil Moisture Water Cycle Mutimission Observation Strategy (WACMOS) Evapotranspiration Global Land-surface Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM) 1In future work, we hope to use fluorescence data from

  4. Tufted puffin reproduction reveals ocean climate variability.

    PubMed

    Gjerdrum, Carina; Vallée, Anne M J; St Clair, Colleen Cassady; Bertram, Douglas F; Ryder, John L; Blackburn, Gwylim S

    2003-08-01

    Anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are associated with interannual and decadal variability as well as with long-term climate changes indicative of global warming. Such oscillations could precipitate changes in a variety of oceanic processes to affect marine species worldwide. As global temperatures continue to rise, it will be critically important to be able to predict the effects of such changes on species' abundance, distribution, and ecological relationships so as to identify vulnerable populations. Off the coast of British Columbia, warm SSTs have persisted through the last two decades. Based on 16 years of reproductive data collected between 1975 and 2002, we show that the extreme variation in reproductive performance exhibited by tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) was related to changes in SST both within and among seasons. Especially warm SSTs corresponded with drastically decreased growth rates and fledging success of puffin nestlings. Puffins may partially compensate for within-season changes associated with SST by adjusting their breeding phenology, yet our data also suggest that they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change at this site and may serve as a valuable indicator of biological change in the North Pacific. Further and prolonged increases in ocean temperature could make Triangle Island, which contains the largest tufted puffin colony in Canada, unsuitable as a breeding site for this species. PMID:12871995

  5. Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates

    SciTech Connect

    Post, E.; Stenseth, N.C.

    1999-06-01

    Models of climate change predict that global temperatures and precipitation will increase within the next century, with the most pronounced changes occurring in northern latitudes and during winter. A large-scale atmospheric phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is a strong determinant of both interannual variation and decadal trends in temperatures and precipitation during winter in northern latitudes, and its recent persistence in one extreme phase may be a substantial component of increases in global temperatures. Hence, the authors investigated the influences of large-scale climatic variability on plant phenology and ungulate population ecology by incorporating the NAO in statistical analyses of previously published data on: (1) the timing of flowering by plants in Norway, and (2) phenotypic and demographic variation in populations of northern ungulates. The authors analyzed 137 time series on plant phenology for 13 species of plants in Norway spanning up to 50 yr and 39 time series on phenotypic and demographic traits of 7 species of northern ungulates from 16 populations in North America and northern Europe spanning up to 30 yr.

  6. Cyclical konzo epidemics and climate variability.

    PubMed

    Oluwole, Olusegun Steven A

    2015-03-01

    Konzo epidemics have occurred during droughts in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) for >70 years, but also in Mozambique, Tanzania, and the Central African Republic. The illness is attributed to exposure to cyanide from cassava foods, on which the population depends almost exclusively during droughts. Production of cassava, a drought-resistant crop, has been shown to correlate with cyclical changes in precipitation in konzo-affected countries. Here we review the epidemiology of konzo as well as models of its pathogenesis. A spectral analysis of precipitation and konzo is performed to determine whether konzo epidemics are cyclical and whether there is spectral coherence. Time series of environmental temperature, precipitation, and konzo show cyclical changes. Periodicities of dominant frequencies in the spectra of precipitation and konzo range from 3 to 6 years in DR Congo. There is coherence of the spectra of precipitation and konzo. The magnitude squared coherence of 0.9 indicates a strong relationship between variability of climate and konzo epidemics. Thus, it appears that low precipitation phases of climate variability reduce the yield of food crops except cassava, upon which the population depends for supply of calories during droughts. Presence of very high concentrations of thiocyanate (SCN(-) ), the major metabolite of cyanide, in the bodily fluids of konzo subjects is a consequence of dietary exposure to cyanide, which follows intake of poorly processed cassava roots. Because cyanogens and minor metabolites of cyanide have not induced konzo-like illnesses, SCN(-) remains the most likely neurotoxicant of konzo. Public health control of konzo will require food and water programs during droughts. [Correction added on 26 February 2015, after first online publication: abstract reformatted per journal style] PMID:25523348

  7. Climate Variability and the Settlement of Oceania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avis, C.; Montenegro, A.; Weaver, A. J.

    2007-12-01

    The initial discovery and settlement of the islands of Oceania is an important issue in Pacific anthropology. Settlement of this region generally proceeded against the direction of the dominant trade winds leading to questions concerning the degree of maritime skill possessed by early Pacific mariners. We use a computer simulation to test two basic exploration strategies: drift voyages and downwind sailing, focusing on the region of the initial eastward expansion into Oceania by the Lapita people. Simulations are driven by high resolution surface wind and current data from atmosphere and ocean models forced by real observations and which capture the high degree of seasonal and interannual variability in the region. We find that climatic variability associated with the Australian monsoon circulation and El Nino plays a key role in facilitating eastward crossings. Both drift and sailing voyages can account for the discovery of all the islands in the Lapita region based on initial starting points in the Bismarck and Solomon archipelagos. Many of our findings differ from an important, earlier modeling study performed by Levison et al. (1973).

  8. A Short Guide to the Climatic Variables of the Last Glacial Maximum for Biogeographers

    PubMed Central

    Varela, Sara; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S.; Terribile, Levi Carina

    2015-01-01

    Ecological niche models are widely used for mapping the distribution of species during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Although the selection of the variables and General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for constructing those maps determine the model predictions, we still lack a discussion about which variables and which GCM should be included in the analysis and why. Here, we analyzed the climatic predictions for the LGM of 9 different GCMs in order to help biogeographers to select their GCMs and climatic layers for mapping the species ranges in the LGM. We 1) map the discrepancies between the climatic predictions of the nine GCMs available for the LGM, 2) analyze the similarities and differences between the GCMs and group them to help researchers choose the appropriate GCMs for calibrating and projecting their ecological niche models (ENM) during the LGM, and 3) quantify the agreement of the predictions for each bioclimatic variable to help researchers avoid the environmental variables with a poor consensus between models. Our results indicate that, in absolute values, GCMs have a strong disagreement in their temperature predictions for temperate areas, while the uncertainties for the precipitation variables are in the tropics. In spite of the discrepancies between model predictions, temperature variables (BIO1-BIO11) are highly correlated between models. Precipitation variables (BIO12- BIO19) show no correlation between models, and specifically, BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month) and BIO15 (Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)) show the highest level of discrepancy between GCMs. Following our results, we strongly recommend the use of different GCMs for constructing or projecting ENMs, particularly when predicting the distribution of species that inhabit the tropics and the temperate areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, because climatic predictions for those areas vary greatly among GCMs. We also recommend the exclusion of BIO14

  9. A Short Guide to the Climatic Variables of the Last Glacial Maximum for Biogeographers.

    PubMed

    Varela, Sara; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Terribile, Levi Carina

    2015-01-01

    Ecological niche models are widely used for mapping the distribution of species during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Although the selection of the variables and General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for constructing those maps determine the model predictions, we still lack a discussion about which variables and which GCM should be included in the analysis and why. Here, we analyzed the climatic predictions for the LGM of 9 different GCMs in order to help biogeographers to select their GCMs and climatic layers for mapping the species ranges in the LGM. We 1) map the discrepancies between the climatic predictions of the nine GCMs available for the LGM, 2) analyze the similarities and differences between the GCMs and group them to help researchers choose the appropriate GCMs for calibrating and projecting their ecological niche models (ENM) during the LGM, and 3) quantify the agreement of the predictions for each bioclimatic variable to help researchers avoid the environmental variables with a poor consensus between models. Our results indicate that, in absolute values, GCMs have a strong disagreement in their temperature predictions for temperate areas, while the uncertainties for the precipitation variables are in the tropics. In spite of the discrepancies between model predictions, temperature variables (BIO1-BIO11) are highly correlated between models. Precipitation variables (BIO12-BIO19) show no correlation between models, and specifically, BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month) and BIO15 (Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)) show the highest level of discrepancy between GCMs. Following our results, we strongly recommend the use of different GCMs for constructing or projecting ENMs, particularly when predicting the distribution of species that inhabit the tropics and the temperate areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, because climatic predictions for those areas vary greatly among GCMs. We also recommend the exclusion of BIO14

  10. To move or to evolve: contrasting patterns of intercontinental connectivity and climatic niche evolution in "Terebinthaceae" (Anacardiaceae and Burseraceae).

    PubMed

    Weeks, Andrea; Zapata, Felipe; Pell, Susan K; Daly, Douglas C; Mitchell, John D; Fine, Paul V A

    2014-01-01

    Many angiosperm families are distributed pantropically, yet for any given continent little is known about which lineages are ancient residents or recent arrivals. Here we use a comprehensive sampling of the pantropical sister pair Anacardiaceae and Burseraceae to assess the relative importance of continental vicariance, long-distance dispersal and niche-conservatism in generating its distinctive pattern of diversity over time. Each family has approximately the same number of species and identical stem age, yet Anacardiaceae display a broader range of fruit morphologies and dispersal strategies and include species that can withstand freezing temperatures, whereas Burseraceae do not. We found that nuclear and chloroplast data yielded a highly supported phylogenetic reconstruction that supports current taxonomic concepts and time-calibrated biogeographic reconstructions that are broadly congruent with the fossil record. We conclude that the most recent common ancestor of these families was widespread and likely distributed in the Northern Hemisphere during the Cretaceous and that vicariance between Eastern and Western Hemispheres coincided with the initial divergence of the families. The tempo of diversification of the families is strikingly different. Anacardiaceae steadily accumulated lineages starting in the Late Cretaceous-Paleocene while the majority of Burseraceae diversification occurred in the Miocene. Multiple dispersal- and vicariance-based intercontinental colonization events are inferred for both families throughout the past 100 million years. However, Anacardiaceae have shifted climatic niches frequently during this time, while Burseraceae have experienced very few shifts between dry and wet climates and only in the tropics. Thus, we conclude that both Anacardiaceae and Burseraceae move easily but that Anacardiaceae have adapted more often, either due to more varied selective pressures or greater intrinsic lability. PMID:25506354

  11. Dangers of using global bioclimatic datasets for ecological niche modeling. Limitations for future climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bedia, Joaquín; Herrera, Sixto; Gutiérrez, José Manuel

    2013-08-01

    Global bioclimatic datasets are being widely used in ecological research to estimate the potential distribution of species using Climate Envelope Models (CEMs). These datasets are easily available and offer high resolution information for all land areas globally. However, they have not been tested rigorously in smaller regions, and their use in regional CEM studies may pose problems derived from their poor representation of local climate features. Moreover, these problems may be enhanced when using CEMs for future climate projections—a topic of current active research—due to the uncertainty derived from the future altered climate scenarios.

  12. How does spatial variability of climate affect catchment streamflow predictions?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial variability of climate can negatively affect catchment streamflow predictions if it is not explicitly accounted for in hydrologic models. In this paper, we examine the changes in streamflow predictability when a hydrologic model is run with spatially variable (distribute...

  13. Phylogenetic assemblage structure of North American trees is more strongly shaped by glacial-interglacial climate variability in gymnosperms than in angiosperms.

    PubMed

    Ma, Ziyu; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2016-05-01

    How fast does biodiversity respond to climate change? The relationship of past and current climate with phylogenetic assemblage structure helps us to understand this question. Studies of angiosperm tree diversity in North America have already suggested effects of current water-energy balance and tropical niche conservatism. However, the role of glacial-interglacial climate variability remains to be determined, and little is known about any of these relationships for gymnosperms. Moreover, phylogenetic endemism, the concentration of unique lineages in restricted ranges, may also be related to glacial-interglacial climate variability and needs more attention. We used a refined phylogeny of both angiosperms and gymnosperms to map phylogenetic diversity, clustering and endemism of North American trees in 100-km grid cells, and climate change velocity since Last Glacial Maximum together with postglacial accessibility to recolonization to quantify glacial-interglacial climate variability. We found: (1) Current climate is the dominant factor explaining the overall patterns, with more clustered angiosperm assemblages toward lower temperature, consistent with tropical niche conservatism. (2) Long-term climate stability is associated with higher angiosperm endemism, while higher postglacial accessibility is linked to to more phylogenetic clustering and endemism in gymnosperms. (3) Factors linked to glacial-interglacial climate change have stronger effects on gymnosperms than on angiosperms. These results suggest that paleoclimate legacies supplement current climate in shaping phylogenetic patterns in North American trees, and especially so for gymnosperms. PMID:27252830

  14. LAMPPOST: A Mnemonic Device for Teaching Climate Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fahrer, Chuck; Harris, Dan

    2004-01-01

    This article introduces the word "LAMPPOST" as a mnemonic device to aid in the instruction of climate variables. It provides instructors with a framework for discussing climate patterns that is based on eight variables: latitude, altitude, maritime influence and continentality, pressure systems, prevailing winds, ocean currents, storms, and…

  15. The paleoclimate record of long-term climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Webb, R.S.; Bartlein, P.J.; Overpeck, J.T. Univ. of Oregon, Eugene )

    1993-06-01

    Climate variability occurs on time scales ranging from decades or shorter to millions of years. An important step in determining the effects of trace-gas-induced warming on climate variability and ecosystems is characterizing past natural variability and change. Throughout the Quaternary long-term climate variability has been dominated by Milankovitch forcing of glacial/interglacial cycles. Superimposed on this millennia-scale orbitally forced variability have been more rapid climate events (e.g. Younger Dryas, Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period, Sahelian droughts). Although highly relevant to understanding possible responses of ecosystems to future climate change, most decade to century scale climate variability remains poorly understood. Insights into mechanisms and responses can be obtained from tree rings, ice cores, corals, marine, lake and fluvial sediments, pollen, and macrofossils. These paleoclimate records reveal that the range of natural climate variability is much larger than indicated by the instrumental record of the past 150 years. Global networks of well-dated, high-resolution paleocrunate records for key intervals of the past are currently being assembled. These networks should provide the baseline of natural variability required to understand climate-ecosystem dynamics and to identify anthropogenic-induced change.

  16. Antarctic role in multi-centennial climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bakker, Pepijn; Clark, Peter U.; Golledge, Nicolas R.; Schmittner, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Proxy-based reconstructions have revealed an important lack of multi-centennial climate variability in global climate models. Here we use a high-resolution ice-sheet model in combination with global climate simulations to show that internal variability in discharge of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a potentially important driver of multi-centennial climate variability. Variations in discharge impact the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, that in turn impacts the climate at the earth's surface and in the deep ocean, in both near-field and far-field regions, through variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. If indeed interactions between the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the climate on multi-centennial timescales are important, studying them in high resolution climate records has good potential to provide constraints on the dynamics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its contribution to future sea-level rise.

  17. Multi-decadal climate variability, New South Wales, Australia.

    PubMed

    Franks, S W

    2004-01-01

    Traditional hydrological risk estimation has treated the observations of hydro-climatological extremes as being independent and identically distributed, implying a static climate risk. However, recent research has highlighted the persistence of multi-decadal epochs of distinct climate states across New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Climatological studies have also revealed multi-decadal variability in the magnitude and frequency of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts. In this paper, examples of multi-decadal variability are presented with regard to flood and drought risk. The causal mechanisms for the observed variability are then explored. Finally, it is argued that the insights into climate variability provide (a) useful lead time for forecasting seasonal hydrological risk, (b) a strong rationale for a new framework for hydrological design and (c) a strong example of natural climate variability for use in the testing of General Circulation Models of climate change. PMID:15195429

  18. Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability

    SciTech Connect

    Cane, Mark A.

    2014-02-20

    This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

  19. Phenological niches and the future of invaded ecosystems with climate change

    PubMed Central

    Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cleland, Elsa E.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, research in invasion biology has focused increasing attention on understanding the role of phenology in shaping plant invasions. Multiple studies have found non-native species that tend to flower distinctly early or late in the growing season, advance more with warming or have shifted earlier with climate change compared with native species. This growing body of literature has focused on patterns of phenological differences, but there is a need now for mechanistic studies of how phenology contributes to invasions. To do this, however, requires understanding how phenology fits within complex functional trait relationships. Towards this goal, we review recent literature linking phenology with other functional traits, and discuss the role of phenology in mediating how plants experience disturbance and stress—via climate, herbivory and competition—across the growing season. Because climate change may alter the timing and severity of stress and disturbance in many systems, it could provide novel opportunities for invasion—depending upon the dominant climate controller of the system, the projected climate change, and the traits of native and non-native species. Based on our current understanding of plant phenological and growth strategies—especially rapid growing, early-flowering species versus later-flowering species that make slower-return investments in growth—we project optimal periods for invasions across three distinct systems under current climate change scenarios. Research on plant invasions and phenology within this predictive framework would provide a more rigorous test of what drives invader success, while at the same time testing basic plant ecological theory. Additionally, extensions could provide the basis to model how ecosystem processes may shift in the future with continued climate change. PMID:24876295

  20. Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.

  1. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  2. Climate variability and change: a perspective from the oceania region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beer, Tom

    2014-12-01

    This brief review identifies seven key science questions in relation to climate variability and change and examines recent research within the Australian and Pacific context: 1. How do the key processes controlling climate variability and predictability operate? 2. What are the nature and causes of regional climate anomalies, past variations in regional climate and extreme weather events and how will they change in the future? 3. How can we provide improved seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions? 4. What are the best projection methods? 5. What are the sea-level changes now and in the future; and how will these impact the coasts? 6. How to have significant benefits on climate service delivery and environmental management? 7. What are the best methods for assessing climate change risks, vulnerability and adaptation options?

  3. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  4. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    SciTech Connect

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  5. Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches.

    PubMed

    Sinervo, Barry; Méndez-de-la-Cruz, Fausto; Miles, Donald B; Heulin, Benoit; Bastiaans, Elizabeth; Villagrán-Santa Cruz, Maricela; Lara-Resendiz, Rafael; Martínez-Méndez, Norberto; Calderón-Espinosa, Martha Lucía; Meza-Lázaro, Rubi Nelsi; Gadsden, Héctor; Avila, Luciano Javier; Morando, Mariana; De la Riva, Ignacio J; Victoriano Sepulveda, Pedro; Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte; Ibargüengoytía, Nora; Aguilar Puntriano, César; Massot, Manuel; Lepetz, Virginie; Oksanen, Tuula A; Chapple, David G; Bauer, Aaron M; Branch, William R; Clobert, Jean; Sites, Jack W

    2010-05-14

    It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change. PMID:20466932

  6. The Dynamics of Ocean Climate Variability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Warren B.; Haney, Robert L.

    1978-01-01

    Halfway through a five-year experimental program designed to test classical concepts of ocean/atmosphere climate dynamics, researchers are finding that the theories may conflict with new data on disturbances in the ocean thermal structure. (Author BB)

  7. Associations of variable coloration with niche breadth and conservation status among Australian reptiles.

    PubMed

    Forsman, Anders; Aberg, Viktor

    2008-05-01

    We evaluate predictions concerning the evolutionary and ecological consequences of color polymorphisms. Previous endeavors have aimed at identifying conditions that promote the evolution and maintenance within populations of alternative variants. But the polymorphic condition may also influence important population processes. We consider the prediction that populations that consist of alternative "ecomorphs" with coadapted gene complexes will utilize more diverse resources and display higher rates of colonization success, population persistence, and range expansions, while being less vulnerable to range contractions and extinctions, compared with monomorphic populations. We perform pairwise comparative analyses based on information for 323 species of Australian lizards and snakes. We find that species with variable color patterns have larger ranges, utilize a greater diversity of habitat types, and are underrepresented among species currently listed as threatened. These results are consistent with the proposition that the co-occurrence of multiple color variants may promote the ecological success of populations and species, but there are also alternative interpretations. PMID:18543614

  8. Stepping inside the niche: microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change.

    PubMed

    Storlie, Collin; Merino-Viteri, Andres; Phillips, Ben; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Welbergen, Justin; Williams, Stephen

    2014-09-01

    To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km(2) study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes. PMID:25252835

  9. Stepping inside the niche: microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Storlie, Collin; Merino-Viteri, Andres; Phillips, Ben; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Welbergen, Justin; Williams, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km2 study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes. PMID:25252835

  10. Impact of Holocene climate variability on Arctic vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gajewski, K.

    2015-10-01

    This paper summarizes current knowledge about the postglacial history of the vegetation of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Greenland. Available pollen data were used to understand the initial migration of taxa across the Arctic, how the plant biodiversity responded to Holocene climate variability, and how past climate variability affected primary production of the vegetation. Current evidence suggests that most of the flora arrived in the area during the Holocene from Europe or refugia south or west of the region immediately after local deglaciation, indicating rapid dispersal of propagules to the region from distant sources. There is some evidence of shrub species arriving later in Greenland, but it is not clear if this is dispersal limited or a response to past climates. Subsequent climate variability had little effect on biodiversity across the CAA, with some evidence of local extinctions in areas of Greenland in the late Holocene. The most significant impact of climate changes is on vegetation density and/or plant production.

  11. Land Use and Climate Variability Amplify Contaminant Pulses

    EPA Science Inventory

    Converting land to human-dominated uses has increased contaminant loads in streams and rivers and vastly transformed hydrological cycles (Vitousek et al. 1997). More recently, climate change has further altered hydrologic cycles and variability of precipitation (IPCC 2007). Toge...

  12. The Ontogenetically Variable Trophic Niche of a Praying Mantid Revealed by Stable Isotope Analysis.

    PubMed

    Hurd, Lawrence E; Dehart, Pieter A P; Taylor, Joseph M; Campbell, Meredith C; Shearer, Megan M

    2015-04-01

    Praying mantids have been shown to exert strong influences on arthropod community composition. However, they may not occupy the same trophic level throughout their lives. Trophic shifting over a life cycle could explain the documented variation in results from field studies, but specific interactions of predators within food webs have been difficult to determine simply by comparing control and treatment assemblages in field experiments. We examined the trophic position of the Chinese praying mantid, Tenodera aridifolia sinensis (Saussure), using stable isotope analysis (SIA). We measured the δ(13)C and δ(15)N of field-collected arthropods, and of laboratory groups of mantids fed known diets of these arthropods chosen from the most abundant trophic guilds: herbivores (sap feeders and plant chewers), and carnivores. We also collected mantids from the field over a growing season and compared their SIA values to those of the laboratory groups. Both δ(13)C and δ(15)N of mantids fed carnivorous prey (spiders or other mantids) were higher than those fed herbivores (grasshoppers). SIA values from field-collected mantids were highly variable, and indicated that they did not take prey from trophic guilds in proportion to their abundances, i.e., were not frequency-dependent predators. Further, δ(15)N decreased from a high at egg hatch to a low at the third instar as early nymphs fed mainly on lower trophic levels, and increased steadily thereafter as they shifted to feeding on higher levels. We suggest that the community impact of generalist predators can be strongly influenced by ontogenetic shifts in diet. PMID:26313177

  13. Impact of climate variability on vector-borne disease transmission

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We will discuss the impact of climate variability on vector borne diseases and demonstrate that global climate teleconnections can be used to anticipate and forecast, in the case of Rift Valley fever, epidemics and epizootics. In this context we will examine significant worldwide weather anomalies t...

  14. Realized niche width of a brackish water submerged aquatic vegetation under current environmental conditions and projected influences of climate change.

    PubMed

    Kotta, Jonne; Möller, Tiia; Orav-Kotta, Helen; Pärnoja, Merli

    2014-12-01

    Little is known about how organisms might respond to multiple climate stressors and this lack of knowledge limits our ability to manage coastal ecosystems under contemporary climate change. Ecological models provide managers and decision makers with greater certainty that the systems affected by their decisions are accurately represented. In this study Boosted Regression Trees modelling was used to relate the cover of submerged aquatic vegetation to the abiotic environment in the brackish Baltic Sea. The analyses showed that the majority of the studied submerged aquatic species are most sensitive to changes in water temperature, current velocity and winter ice scour. Surprisingly, water salinity, turbidity and eutrophication have little impact on the distributional pattern of the studied biota. Both small and large scale environmental variability contributes to the variability of submerged aquatic vegetation. When modelling species distribution under the projected influences of climate change, all of the studied submerged aquatic species appear to be very resilient to a broad range of environmental perturbation and biomass gains are expected when seawater temperature increases. This is mainly because vegetation develops faster in spring and has a longer growing season under the projected climate change scenario. PMID:24933438

  15. Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

  16. CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CHANGE, AND CONSEQUENCES IN ESTUARIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change operates at global, hemispheric, and regional scales, sometimes involving rapid shifts in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Changes of global scope occurred in the transition into the Little Ice Age (1350-1880) and subsequent warming during the 20th century. In th...

  17. Climatic niche and flowering and fruiting phenology of an epiphytic plant

    PubMed Central

    Barve, Narayani; Martin, Craig E.; Peterson, A. Townsend

    2015-01-01

    Species have geographic distributions constrained by combinations of abiotic factors, biotic factors and dispersal-related factors. Abiotic requirements vary across the life stages for a species; for plant species, a particularly important life stage is when the plant flowers and develops seeds. A previous year-long experiment showed that ambient temperature of 5–35 °C, relative humidity of >50 % and ≤15 consecutive rainless days are crucial abiotic conditions for Spanish moss (Tillandsia usneoides L.). Here, we explore whether these optimal physiological intervals relate to the timing of the flowering and fruiting periods of Spanish moss across its range. As Spanish moss has a broad geographic range, we examined herbarium specimens to detect and characterize flowering/fruiting periods for the species across the Americas; we used high-temporal-resolution climatic data to assess the availability of optimal conditions for Spanish moss populations during each population's flowering period. We explored how long populations experience suboptimal conditions and found that most populations experience suboptimal conditions in at least one environmental dimension. Flowering and fruiting periods of Spanish moss populations are either being optimized for one or a few parameters or may be adjusted such that all parameters are suboptimal. Spanish moss populations appear to be constrained most closely by minimum temperature during this period. PMID:26359490

  18. The Variable Climate Impact of Volcanic Eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graf, H.

    2011-12-01

    The main effect of big volcanic eruptions in the climate system is due to their efficient transport of condensable gases and their precursors into the stratosphere. There the formation of aerosols leads to effects on atmospheric radiation transfer inducing a reduction of incoming solar radiation by reflection (i.e. cooling of the Earth surface) and absorption of near infrared radiation (i.e. heating) in the aerosol laden layers. In the talk processes determining the climate effect of an eruption will be illustrated by examples, mainly from numerical modelling. The amount of gases released from a magma during an eruption and the efficiency of their transport into very high altitudes depends on the geological setting (magma type) and eruption style. While mid-sized eruption plumes of Plinian style quickly can develop buoyancy by entrainment of ambient air, very large eruptions with high magma flux rates often tend to collapsing plumes and co-ignimbrite style. These cover much bigger areas and are less efficient in entraining ambient air. Vertical transport in these plumes is chaotic and less efficient, leading to lower neutral buoyancy height and less gas and particles reaching high stratospheric altitudes. Explosive energy and amount of released condensable gases are not the only determinants for the climatic effect of an eruption. The effect on shortwave radiation is not linear with the amount of aerosols formed since according to the Lambert-Beer Law atmospheric optical depth reaches a saturation limit with increased absorber concentration. In addition, if more condensable gas is available for aerosol growth, particles become larger and this affects their optical properties to less reflection and more absorption. Larger particles settle out faster, thus reducing the life time of the aerosol disturbance. Especially for big tropical eruptions the strong heating of the stratosphere in low latitudes leads to changes in atmospheric wave propagation by strengthened

  19. Does internal climate variability impact radiative feedback estimates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonko, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    A lot of attention has been focussed on the inter-model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity and the radiative feedbacks that contribute to it as a measure of our uncertainty of the climate system's response to external forcing. But how accurate is an estimate of this uncertainty derived purely from model-to-model differences? Recent work has highlighted the importance of factors such as differences resulting from methodology (Klocke et al., 2013) as well as internal climate variability (Deser et al., 2012), which have historically not been included in multi-model assessments. While an increasing number of models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) provide several ensemble members for certain simulations, the ensemble sizes are generally not large enough to fully sample climate's intrinsic variability. Here we use a large 40 member ensemble of simulations performed with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 to asses the impact of internal variability on radiative feedback estimates. We find that the spread in individual feedbacks among ensemble members corresponds to 25% of CMIP3 inter-model spread. Deser, C., A. Phillips, V. Bourdette and H. Teng (2012): Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability, Clim. Dyn., 38, 527-546. Klocke, D., J. Quaas and B. Stevens (2013): Assessment of different metrics for physical climate feedbacks, Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1757-1

  20. Women's role in adapting to climate change and variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvajal-Escobar, Y.; Quintero-Angel, M.; García-Vargas, M.

    2008-04-01

    Given that women are engaged in more climate-related change activities than what is recognized and valued in the community, this article highlights their important role in the adaptation and search for safer communities, which leads them to understand better the causes and consequences of changes in climatic conditions. It is concluded that women have important knowledge and skills for orienting the adaptation processes, a product of their roles in society (productive, reproductive and community); and the importance of gender equity in these processes is recognized. The relationship among climate change, climate variability and the accomplishment of the Millennium Development Goals is considered.

  1. Ecological niche

    SciTech Connect

    Shugart, H.H.

    1980-01-01

    The ecological niche of an organism is the set of environmental conditions under which the particular functions of the organism could be expected to assure its survival. It comprises both the set of conditions where the organism lives (often termed the habitat of the organism) and the functional role of the organism in the ecosystem. Recent works in niche theory have enabled ecologists to develop predictions and actual applications. The history of the niche concept, applications of niche theory, and ecological differences between similar species are discussed.

  2. A Normal Mode Perspective of Intrinsic Ocean-Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dijkstra, Henk

    2016-01-01

    Observations of the sea surface temperature field over more than a century indicate that there is pronounced variability in the climate system. Understanding the mechanisms of this variability is crucial to determine the role of variations in ocean heat content in past and future climate changes. When a steady background state in an ocean-climate model is slightly perturbed, the long-time response is determined by the spatial patterns of the normal modes. Here, the type and patterns of normal modes for a range of different equilibrium states in a hierarchy of ocean-climate models are reviewed. The rather elegant organization of these normal modes is demonstrated, and prototype physical mechanisms explaining patterns of sea surface temperature variability based on these normal modes are provided.

  3. Reservoirs performances under climate variability: a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Longobardi, A.; Mautone, M.; de Luca, C.

    2014-09-01

    A case study, the Piano della Rocca dam (southern Italy) is discussed here in order to quantify the system performances under climate variability conditions. Different climate scenarios have been stochastically generated according to the tendencies in precipitation and air temperature observed during recent decades for the studied area. Climate variables have then been filtered through an ARMA model to generate, at the monthly scale, time series of reservoir inflow volumes. Controlled release has been computed considering the reservoir is operated following the standard linear operating policy (SLOP) and reservoir performances have been assessed through the calculation of reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices (Hashimoto et al. 1982), comparing current and future scenarios of climate variability. The proposed approach can be suggested as a valuable tool to mitigate the effects of moderate to severe and persistent droughts periods, through the allocation of new water resources or the planning of appropriate operational rules.

  4. Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folkert Boersma, K.; Muller, Jan-Peter

    2015-04-01

    Satellite data are of central interest to the QA4ECV project. Satellites have revolutionized the Earth's observation system of climate change and air quality over the past three decades, providing continuous data for the entire Earth. However, many users of these data are lost in the fog as to the quality of these satellite data. Because of this, the European Union expressed in its 2013 FP7 Space Research Call a need for reliable, traceable, and understandable quality information on satellite data records that could serve as a blueprint contribution to a future Copernicus Climate Change Service. The potential of satellite data to benefit climate change and air quality services is too great to be ignored. QA4ECV therefore bridges the gap between end-users of satellite data and the satellite data products. We are developing an internationally acceptable Quality Assurance (QA) framework that provides understandable and traceable quality information for satellite data used in climate and air quality services. Such a framework should deliver the historically linked long-term data sets that users need, in a format that they can readily use. QA4ECV has approached more than 150 users and suppliers of satellite data to collect their needs and expectations. The project will use their response as a guideline for developing user-friendly tools to obtain information on the completeness, accuracy, and fitness-for-purpose of the satellite datasets. QA4ECV collaborates with 4 joint FP7 Space projects in reaching out to scientists, policy makers, and other end-users of satellite data to improve understanding of the special challenges -and also opportunities- of working with satellite data for climate and air quality purposes. As a demonstration of its capacity, QA4ECV will generate multi-decadal climate data records for 3 atmospheric ECV precursors (nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde, and carbon monoxide) and 3 land ECVs (albedo, leaf area index and absorbed photosynthetically active

  5. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today’s Climate Variability

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-01

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change. PMID:26750759

  6. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today’s Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-01

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

  7. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

    PubMed

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-01

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change. PMID:26750759

  8. Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-11

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950–1979more » having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

  9. Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirtman, B.

    2006-12-01

    The current understanding of decadal variability in both the tropical and extra-tropical Pacific is presented. Modeling studies into causes of mid-latitude ocean variability often focus on to what extent the variability involves coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks versus the uncoupled response to atmospheric stochastic white noise forcing. The coupled feedbacks are either viewed as a generalization of the Hasselman (1976) theory to include local air-sea interactions, which could amplify the low frequency response without any preferred time scale or as involving a "delayed oscillator" due to ocean memory whereby the variability has some preferred time scale. Generally, the coupled air-sea feedbacks are stable requiring atmospheric stochastic forcing, and the inclusion of ocean dynamics is thought to enhance the variability. The uncoupled stochastic forcing of the ocean includes a number of proposed physical mechanisms for the preferred low frequency. These mechanisms include oceanic advection processes associated with the mid-latitude gyre, an atmospheric pattern of forcing with a preferred length scale or position, the dynamical adjustment of the extra-tropical ocean circulation via long baroclinic Rossby waves, and Ekman pumping. Another possibility is that tropical forcing via some atmospheric "bridge" acts as a source of North Pacific decadal variations, which may or may not be amplified by coupled feedbacks. The amplitude and frequency of ENSO exhibits variations on decadal timescales. Whether these variations are driven by low frequency variability in the tropical Pacific mean state or are just sampling issues associated with some sort of random walk process has been the subject of some debate. Accordingly, the current literature includes a number of studies proposing mechanisms for the decadal variability of the tropical Pacific, and, as a counter argument, studies examining the null hypothesis that the amplitude and frequency variations are simply related to

  10. The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mora, Camilo; Frazier, Abby G.; Longman, Ryan J.; Dacks, Rachel S.; Walton, Maya M.; Tong, Eric J.; Sanchez, Joseph J.; Kaiser, Lauren R.; Stender, Yuko O.; Anderson, James M.; Ambrosino, Christine M.; Fernandez-Silva, Iria; Giuseffi, Louise M.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.

    2013-10-01

    Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (+/-18years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (+/-14years s.d.) under a `business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

  11. Do bioclimate variables improve performance of climate envelope models?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watling, James I.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Bucklin, David N.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate envelope models are widely used to forecast potential effects of climate change on species distributions. A key issue in climate envelope modeling is the selection of predictor variables that most directly influence species. To determine whether model performance and spatial predictions were related to the selection of predictor variables, we compared models using bioclimate variables with models constructed from monthly climate data for twelve terrestrial vertebrate species in the southeastern USA using two different algorithms (random forests or generalized linear models), and two model selection techniques (using uncorrelated predictors or a subset of user-defined biologically relevant predictor variables). There were no differences in performance between models created with bioclimate or monthly variables, but one metric of model performance was significantly greater using the random forest algorithm compared with generalized linear models. Spatial predictions between maps using bioclimate and monthly variables were very consistent using the random forest algorithm with uncorrelated predictors, whereas we observed greater variability in predictions using generalized linear models.

  12. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  13. Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, D.B.; Peterson, D.L.; Hessl, A.E.

    2003-01-01

    An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change

  14. Deglacial climate variability in central Florida, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Brooks, G.R.; Cronin, T. M.; Edgar, T.; Larson, R.

    2007-01-01

    Pollen and ostracode evidence from lacustrine sediments underlying modern Tampa Bay, Florida, document frequent and abrupt climatic and hydrological events superimposed on deglacial warming in the subtropics. Radiocarbon chronology on well-preserved mollusk shells and pollen residue from core MD02-2579 documents continuous sedimentation in a variety of non-marine habitats in a karst-controlled basin from 20 ka to 11.5 ka. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), much drier and cooler-than-modern conditions are indicated by pollen assemblages enriched in Chenopodiaceae and Carya, with rare Pinus (Pinus pollen increased to 20–40% during the warming of the initial deglaciation (∼ 17.2 ka), reaching near modern abundance (60–80%) during warmer, moister climates of the Bølling/Allerød interval (14.7–12.9 ka). Within the Bølling/Allerød, centennial-scale dry events corresponding to the Older Dryas and Intra-Allerød Cold Period indicate rapid vegetation response (

  15. Randomness and Earth’s Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levinshtein, Michael; Dergachev, Valentin; Dmitriev, Alexander; Shmakov, Pavel

    2016-02-01

    Paleo-Sciences including palaeoclimatology and palaeoecology have accumulated numerous records related to climatic changes. The researchers have usually tried to identify periodic and quasi-periodic processes in these paleoscientific records. In this paper, we show that this analysis is incomplete. As follows from our results, random processes, namely processes with a single-time-constant τ0 (noise with a Lorentzian noise spectrum), play a very important and, perhaps, a decisive role in numerous natural phenomena. For several of very important natural phenomena the characteristic time constants τ0 are very similar and equal to (5‑8) × 103 years. However, this value of τ0 is not universal. For example, the spectral density fluctuations of the atmospheric radiocarbon δ14C are characterized by a Lorentzian with τ0 ≈ 300 years. The frequency dependence of spectral density fluctuations for benthic δ18O records contains two Lorentzians with τ0 ≈ 8000 years and τ0 > 105 years.

  16. Combining a climatic niche model of an invasive fungus with its host species distributions to identify risks to natural assets: Puccinia psidii Sensu Lato in Australia.

    PubMed

    Kriticos, Darren J; Morin, Louise; Leriche, Agathe; Anderson, Robert C; Caley, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l.) is an invasive rust fungus threatening a wide range of plant species in the family Myrtaceae. Originating from Central and South America, it has invaded mainland USA and Hawai'i, parts of Asia and Australia. We used CLIMEX to develop a semi-mechanistic global climatic niche model based on new data on the distribution and biology of P. psidii s.l. The model was validated using independent distribution data from recently invaded areas in Australia, China and Japan. We combined this model with distribution data of its potential Myrtaceae host plant species present in Australia to identify areas and ecosystems most at risk. Myrtaceaeous species richness, threatened Myrtaceae and eucalypt plantations within the climatically suitable envelope for P. psidii s.l in Australia were mapped. Globally the model identifies climatically suitable areas for P. psidii s.l. throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics where moist conditions with moderate temperatures prevail, and also into some cool regions with a mild Mediterranean climate. In Australia, the map of species richness of Myrtaceae within the P. psidii s.l. climatic envelope shows areas where epidemics are hypothetically more likely to be frequent and severe. These hotspots for epidemics are along the eastern coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney Basin, in the Brisbane and Cairns areas in Queensland, and in the coastal region from the south of Bunbury to Esperance in Western Australia. This new climatic niche model for P. psidii s.l. indicates a higher degree of cold tolerance; and hence a potential range that extends into higher altitudes and latitudes than has been indicated previously. The methods demonstrated here provide some insight into the impacts an invasive species might have within its climatically suited range, and can help inform biosecurity policies regarding the management of its spread and protection of valued threatened assets. PMID:23704988

  17. Combining a Climatic Niche Model of an Invasive Fungus with Its Host Species Distributions to Identify Risks to Natural Assets: Puccinia psidii Sensu Lato in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Kriticos, Darren J.; Morin, Louise; Leriche, Agathe; Anderson, Robert C.; Caley, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l.) is an invasive rust fungus threatening a wide range of plant species in the family Myrtaceae. Originating from Central and South America, it has invaded mainland USA and Hawai'i, parts of Asia and Australia. We used CLIMEX to develop a semi-mechanistic global climatic niche model based on new data on the distribution and biology of P. psidii s.l. The model was validated using independent distribution data from recently invaded areas in Australia, China and Japan. We combined this model with distribution data of its potential Myrtaceae host plant species present in Australia to identify areas and ecosystems most at risk. Myrtaceaeous species richness, threatened Myrtaceae and eucalypt plantations within the climatically suitable envelope for P. psidii s.l in Australia were mapped. Globally the model identifies climatically suitable areas for P. psidii s.l. throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics where moist conditions with moderate temperatures prevail, and also into some cool regions with a mild Mediterranean climate. In Australia, the map of species richness of Myrtaceae within the P. psidii s.l. climatic envelope shows areas where epidemics are hypothetically more likely to be frequent and severe. These hotspots for epidemics are along the eastern coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney Basin, in the Brisbane and Cairns areas in Queensland, and in the coastal region from the south of Bunbury to Esperance in Western Australia. This new climatic niche model for P. psidii s.l. indicates a higher degree of cold tolerance; and hence a potential range that extends into higher altitudes and latitudes than has been indicated previously. The methods demonstrated here provide some insight into the impacts an invasive species might have within its climatically suited range, and can help inform biosecurity policies regarding the management of its spread and protection of valued threatened assets. PMID:23704988

  18. Activity Response to Climate Seasonality in Species with Fossorial Habits: A Niche Modeling Approach Using the Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens)

    PubMed Central

    Encarnación-Luévano, Alondra; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R.; Sigala-Rodríguez, J. Jesús

    2013-01-01

    The importance of climatic conditions in shaping the geographic distribution of amphibian species is mainly associated to their high sensitivity to environmental conditions. How they cope with climate gradients through behavioral adaptations throughout their distribution is an important issue due to the ecological and evolutionary implications for population viability. Given their low dispersal abilities, the response to seasonal climate changes may not be migration, but behavioral and physiological adaptations. Here we tested whether shifts in climatic seasonality can predict the temporal variation of surface activity of the fossorial Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens) across its geographical distribution. We employed Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) to perform a monthly analysis of spatial variation of suitable climatic conditions (defined by the July conditions, the month of greatest activity), and then evaluated the geographical correspondence of monthly projections with the occurrence data per month. We found that the species activity, based on the species' occurrence data, corresponds with the latitudinal variation of suitable climatic conditions. Due to the behavioral response of this fossorial frog to seasonal climate variation, we suggest that precipitation and temperature have played a major role in the definition of geographical and temporal distribution patterns, as well as in shaping behavioral adaptations to local climatic conditions. This highlights the influence of macroclimate on shaping activity patterns and the important role of fossorials habits to meet the environmental requirements necessary for survival. PMID:24244301

  19. Terrestrial essential climate variables (ECVs) at a glance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stitt, Susan; Dwyer, John; Dye, Dennis; Josberger, Edward

    2011-01-01

    The Global Terrestrial Observing System, Global Climate Observing System, World Meteorological Organization, and Committee on Earth Observation Satellites all support consistent global land observations and measurements. To accomplish this goal, the Global Terrestrial Observing System defined 'essential climate variables' as measurements of atmosphere, oceans, and land that are technically and economically feasible for systematic observation and that are needed to meet the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and requirements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The following are the climate variables defined by the Global Terrestrial Observing System that relate to terrestrial measurements. Several of them are currently measured most appropriately by in-place observations, whereas others are suitable for measurement by remote sensing technologies. The U.S. Geological Survey is the steward of the Landsat archive, satellite imagery collected from 1972 to the present, that provides a potential basis for deriving long-term, global-scale, accurate, timely and consistent measurements of many of these essential climate variables.

  20. Earth System Science Education Centered on Natural Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez, P. C.; Ladochy, S.; Patzert, W. C.; Willis, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    Several new courses and many educational activities related to climate change are available to teachers and students of all grade levels. However, not all new discoveries in climate research have reached the science education community. In particular, effective learning tools explaining natural climate change are scarce. For example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a main cause of natural climate variability spanning decades. While most educators are familiar with the shorter-temporal events impacting climate, El Niño and La Niña, very little has trickled into the climate change curriculum on the PDO. We have developed two online educational modules, using an Earth system science approach, on the PDO and its role in climate change and variability. The first concentrates on the discovery of the PDO through records of salmon catch in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. We present the connection between salmon abundance in the North Pacific to changing sea surface temperature patterns associated with the PDO. The connection between sea surface temperatures and salmon abundance led to the discovery of the PDO. Our activity also lets students explore the role of salmon in the economy and culture of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska and the environmental requirements for salmon survival. The second module is based on the climate of southern California and how changes in the Pacific Ocean , such as the PDO and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), influence regional climate variability. PDO and ENSO signals are evident in the long-term temperature and precipitation record of southern California. Students are guided in the module to discover the relationships between Pacific Ocean conditions and southern California climate variability. The module also provides information establishing the relationship between climate change and variability and the state's water, energy, agriculture, wildfires and forestry, air quality and health issues. Both modules will be

  1. Chaos, dynamical structure and climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Stewart, H.B.

    1995-09-01

    Deterministic chaos in dynamical systems offers a new paradigm for understanding irregular fluctuations. Techniques for identifying deterministic chaos from observed data, without recourse to mathematical models, are being developed. Powerful methods exist for reconstructing multidimensional phase space from an observed time series of a single scalar variable; these methods are invaluable when only a single scalar record of the dynamics is available. However, in some applications multiple concurrent time series may be available for consideration as phase space coordinates. Here the authors propose some basic analytical tools for such multichannel time series data, and illustrate them by applications to a simple synthetic model of chaos, to a low-order model of atmospheric circulation, and to two high-resolution paleoclimate proxy data series. The atmospheric circulation model, originally proposed by Lorenz, has 27 principal unknowns; they establish that the chaotic attractor can be embedded in a subspace of eight dimensions by exhibiting a specific subset of eight unknowns which pass multichannel tests for false nearest neighbors. They also show that one of the principal unknowns in the 27-variable model--the global mean sea surface temperature--is of no discernible usefulness in making short-term forecasts.

  2. Decadal climate variability in the eastern Caribbean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jury, Mark R.; Gouirand, Isabelle

    2011-11-01

    Rainfall variability in the eastern Caribbean during the 20th century is analyzed using principal component analysis and singular value decomposition. In contrast to earlier studies that used seasonal data, here we employ continuous signal processing. The leading mode is a decadal oscillation related to third and fourth modes of sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperatures (SST) which together identify three zones of action in the Atlantic: 35°N-20°N, 20°N-5°N, and 5°N-20°S. The ability of the ECHAM4.5 model to simulate this signal is investigated. Its decadal variability is also represented through lower-order SLP and SST modes that comprise an Atlantic tripole pattern with lower pressure east of the Caribbean. Composite analysis of high and low phases of the decadal mode reflects a cool east Pacific and a more active Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone during boreal summer, conditions that favor the intensification of African easterly waves. The decadal signal has strengthened since 1970, yet the three centers of action in Atlantic SST are relatively unsynchronized.

  3. Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in upper air climate variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eghdamirad, Sajjad; Johnson, Fiona; Woldemeskel, Fitsum; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-04-01

    Future estimates of precipitation and streamflow are of utmost interest in hydrological climate change impact assessments. Just as important as the estimate itself, is the variance around the ensemble mean of the projections, this variance being defined as uncertainty in the context of this study. This uncertainty in the hydrological variables of interest is affected by uncertainty in upper air climate variables which are used in statistical downscaling of precipitation or streamflow. Here the extent of uncertainty in upper air climate variables has been assessed for a selection of commonly used atmospheric variables for downscaling, namely, geopotential height and its difference in the north-south direction, specific humidity, and eastward and northward wind speeds. Generally, in statistical downscaling, no consideration is usually given to the uncertainty of different individual variables, which can result in biases in future climate simulations. The approach of quantifying uncertainty presented here has the potential to enable modelers to better formulate downscaling approaches, leading to more accurate characterization of future precipitation and its associated uncertainty. Based on the spread of multiple-model outputs, an uncertainty measure called square root of error variance has been used to quantify the contribution of different sources of uncertainty (i.e., models, scenarios, and ensembles) in monthly future climate projections in the 21st century at the 500 hPa and 850 hPa pressure levels. It has been shown that the different climate variables and levels of the atmosphere have distinct patterns in terms of their total future uncertainty and the contributions from the three sources. Scenario and model uncertainties in general contribute reasonably evenly to total uncertainty, with smaller contributions from the initial condition ensembles.

  4. Estimating niche width using stable isotopes in the face of habitat variability: a modelling case study in the marine environment.

    PubMed

    Cummings, David O; Buhl, Jerome; Lee, Raymond W; Simpson, Stephen J; Holmes, Sebastian P

    2012-01-01

    Distributions of stable isotopes have been used to infer an organism's trophic niche width, the 'isotopic niche', and examine resource partitioning. Spatial variation in the isotopic composition of prey may however confound the interpretation of isotopic signatures especially when foragers exploit resources across numerous locations. In this study the isotopic compositions from marine assemblages are modelled to determine the role of variation in the signature of prey items and the effect of dietary breadth and foraging strategies on predator signatures. Outputs from the models reveal that isotopic niche widths can be greater for populations of dietary specialists rather than for generalists, which contravenes what is generally accepted in the literature. When a range of different mixing models are applied to determine if the conversion from δ to p-space can be used to improve model accuracy, predator signature variation is increased rather than model precision. Furthermore the mixing models applied failed to correctly identify dietary specialists and/or to accurately estimate diet contributions that may identify resource partitioning. The results presented illustrate the need to collect sufficiently large sample sizes, in excess of what is collected under most current studies, across the complete distribution of a species and its prey, before attempts to use stable isotopes to make inferences about niche width can be made. PMID:22876280

  5. Vegetation Interaction Enhances Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Ning; Neelin, J. David; Lau, William K.-M.

    1999-01-01

    The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation significantly, but can reduce year to year variability due to a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular, the multi-decadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 80s.

  6. Northern high latitude climate variability of the last millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andres, Heather J.

    This work explores the causes of northern high-latitude climate variations over the last millennium, and industrial and future periods. Attribution studies are performed on a suite of global climate simulations, and four historical reconstructions of Greenland surface temperatures and precipitation (two of which are new to this work). The simulations followed the protocols of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. At least half of the multi-decadal variability in simulated Greenland climate variations over the last millennium is reproduced by a linear, empirically-generated model including terms for volcanic emissions, solar insolation changes (including total solar irradiance and orbital components) and an index associated with latitudinal shifts in the North Atlantic jet. Empirical model parameters are obtained by regressing simulated Greenland temperatures and precipitation against time series for each of the response variables. Greenhouse gas radiative forcing changes are unimportant to simulated Greenland conditions over the last millennium, although they dominate after the mid-20th century. Most of the historical Greenland climate reconstructions are restricted to the industrial period, due to a lack of spatially-comprehensive climate records. They exhibit substantial differences in the timing, phasing and amplitudes of past climate variations, due to regional sensitivities in the source data and the reconstruction methodologies. Reconstructions indicate that Greenland temperatures did not begin to follow hemispheric greenhouse gas warming patterns until the mid-1990s. This discrepancy indicates either that the warming hiatus was associated with internal climate variability, or that the simulations are missing processes important to Greenland climate. For example, indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols are not captured in the climate model employed here. All of the external climate forcings

  7. Experiences on climate variability education from an empirical perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez-Puebla, Concepcion

    2015-04-01

    Education materials based on investigations are prepared for teaching climate matters using graphics representation, data analysis and GrADS software. An example of how climate teleconnection are included in the teaching activities would be presented. The goal is for students to learn about how climate variability and extreme events over a region are connected to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation from an empirical perspective. Exercises and questions are prepared for collaborative and interactive learning considering the visualization and workshop activities included in the Moodle learning platform.

  8. Performance of climate field reconstruction methods over multiple seasons and climate variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dannenberg, Matthew P.; Wise, Erika K.

    2013-09-01

    Studies of climate variability require long time series of data but are limited by the absence of preindustrial instrumental records. For such studies, proxy-based climate reconstructions, such as those produced from tree-ring widths, provide the opportunity to extend climatic records into preindustrial periods. Climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods are capable of producing spatially-resolved reconstructions of climate fields. We assessed the performance of three commonly used CFR methods (canonical correlation analysis, point-by-point regression, and regularized expectation maximization) over spatially-resolved fields using multiple seasons and climate variables. Warm- and cool-season geopotential height, precipitable water, and surface temperature were tested for each method using tree-ring chronologies. Spatial patterns of reconstructive skill were found to be generally consistent across each of the methods, but the robustness of the validation metrics varied by CFR method, season, and climate variable. The most robust validation metrics were achieved with geopotential height, the October through March temporal composite, and the Regularized Expectation Maximization method. While our study is limited to assessment of skill over multidecadal (rather than multi-centennial) time scales, our findings suggest that the climate variable of interest, seasonality, and spatial domain of the target field should be considered when assessing potential CFR methods for real-world applications.

  9. ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON WEATHER-RELATED MORBIDITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The potential effects of climate change and climate variability on weather-related morbidity are assessed. Heat-related and cold-related morbidity in children are analyzed. The impact of inclement weather on accidental injuries is evaluated. The relationship of violent crime to w...

  10. Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmgren, Milena; Hirota, Marina; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

    2013-08-01

    Climatic warming is substantially intensifying the global water cycle and is projected to increase rainfall variability. Using satellite data, we show that higher climatic variability is associated with reduced tree cover in the wet tropics globally. In contrast, interannual variability in rainfall can have neutral or even positive effects on tree cover in the dry tropics. In South America, tree cover in dry lands is higher in areas with high year-to-year variability in rainfall. This is consistent with evidence from case studies suggesting that in these areas rare wet episodes are essential for opening windows of opportunity where massive tree recruitment can overwhelm disturbance effects, allowing the establishment of extensive woodlands. In Australia, wet extremes have similar effects, but the net effect of rainfall variability is overwhelmed by negative effects of extreme dry years. In Africa, effects of rainfall variability are neutral for dry lands. It is most likely that differences in herbivore communities and fire regimes contribute to regulating tree expansion during wet extremes. Our results illustrate that increasing climatic variability may affect ecosystem services in contrasting, and sometimes surprising, ways. Expansion of dry tropical tree cover during extreme wet events may decrease grassland productivity but enhance carbon sequestration, soil nutrient retention and biodiversity.

  11. Latitudinal variation in ecological opportunity and intraspecific competition indicates differences in niche variability and diet specialization of Arctic marine predators.

    PubMed

    Yurkowski, David J; Ferguson, Steve; Choy, Emily S; Loseto, Lisa L; Brown, Tanya M; Muir, Derek C G; Semeniuk, Christina A D; Fisk, Aaron T

    2016-03-01

    Individual specialization (IS), where individuals within populations irrespective of age, sex, and body size are either specialized or generalized in terms of resource use, has implications on ecological niches and food web structure. Niche size and degree of IS of near-top trophic-level marine predators have been little studied in polar regions or with latitude. We quantified the large-scale latitudinal variation of population- and individual-level niche size and IS in ringed seals (Pusa hispida) and beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis on 379 paired ringed seal liver and muscle samples and 124 paired beluga skin and muscle samples from eight locations ranging from the low to high Arctic. We characterized both within- and between-individual variation in predator niche size at each location as well as accounting for spatial differences in the isotopic ranges of potential prey. Total isotopic niche width (TINW) for populations of ringed seals and beluga decreased with increasing latitude. Higher TINW values were associated with greater ecological opportunity (i.e., prey diversity) in the prey fish community which mainly consists of Capelin (Mallotus villosus) and Sand lance (Ammodytes sp.) at lower latitudes and Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) at high latitudes. In beluga, their dietary consistency between tissues also known as the within-individual component (WIC) increased in a near 1:1 ratio with TINW (slope = 0.84), suggesting dietary generalization, whereas the slope (0.18) of WIC relative to TINW in ringed seals indicated a high degree of individual specialization in ringed seal populations with higher TINWs. Our findings highlight the differences in TINW and level of IS for ringed seals and beluga relative to latitude as a likely response to large-scale spatial variation in ecological opportunity, suggesting species-specific variation in dietary plasticity to spatial differences in prey resources and

  12. Climate Variability and Phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rousseaux, Cecile

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (p<0.01) with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). In the North Central Pacific, MEI and chlorophyll were significantly (p<0.01) correlated along with two of the phytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Nina events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.

  13. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability.

    PubMed

    Seddon, Alistair W R; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J

    2016-03-10

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems--be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature--to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being. PMID:26886790

  14. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seddon, Alistair W. R.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R.; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J.

    2016-03-01

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  15. Climatic Variability Leads to Later Seasonal Flowering of Floridian Plants

    PubMed Central

    Von Holle, Betsy; Wei, Yun; Nickerson, David

    2010-01-01

    Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses. PMID:20657765

  16. Climate variability and predictability in Northwest Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baddour, O.; Djellouli, Y.

    2003-04-01

    Northwest Africa defined here as the area including Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, occupies a large territory in North Africa with an area exceeding 3.5 million km2. The geographical contrast is very important: while most of the southern part is desert, the northern and northwestern parts exhibit a contrasting geography including large flat areas in the western part of Morocco, northern Algeria and eastern part of Tunisia and the formidable Atlas mountains barrier extends from south west of Morocco toward north west of Tunisia crossing central Morocco and north Algeria. Agriculture is one of major socio-economic activities in the region with an extensive cash-crop for exporting to Europe especially from Morocco and Tunisia. The influence of the recurring droughts during the 80s and 90s was very crucial for the economic and societal aspects of the region. In Morocco, severe droughts have caused GDP fluctuation within past 20 years from 10% increase down to negative values in some particular years. Recent studies have investigated seasonal rainfall variability and prediction over MOROCCO in the framework of regional and international collaboration. Results from this work has shown that the main general circulation feature associated with the rainfall variability within Morocco is the North Atlantic Oscillation. The relationship is in fact due to the major role played by the AZORES high pressure with its role in modulating the main position of the active synoptic systems in the north Atlantic area and therefore in modulating the frequency and the intensity of the weather systems that impact the western part of the region. Mediterranean sea plays also major role in the mid of the region. In this paper we applied EOF technique on 500 hPa. The data used are monthly reanalysis NCEP/NCAR analyses for November from 1960 to 1990 climatological time series. Correlation analysis is then performed between EOF time series and global 4x4 degre SST anomalies. The results we

  17. Agricultural management options for climate variability and change: conservation tillage

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Adapting to climate variability and change can be achieved through a broad range of management alternatives and technological advances. This publication is focused on the use of conservation tillage in crop production systems. The publication outlines ways that conservation tillage can reduce risk r...

  18. 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Nicolussi, Kurt; McCormick, Michael; Frank, David; Trouet, Valerie; Kaplan, Jed O.; Herzig, Franz; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Wanner, Heinz; Luterbacher, Jürg; Esper, Jan

    2011-02-01

    Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

  19. America's water risk: Current demand and climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devineni, Naresh; Lall, Upmanu; Etienne, Elius; Shi, Daniel; Xi, Chen

    2015-04-01

    A new indicator of drought-induced water stress is introduced and applied at the county level in the USA. Unlike most existing drought metrics, we directly consider current daily water demands and renewable daily water supply to estimate the potential stress. Water stress indices developed include the Normalized Deficit Cumulated to represent multiyear droughts by computing the maximum cumulative deficit between demand and supply over the study period (1949-2009) and the Normalized Deficit Index representing drought associated with maximum cumulative deficit each year. These water stress indices map directly to storage requirements needed to buffer multiyear and within-year climate variability and can reveal the dependence on exogenous water transferred by rivers/canals to the area. Future climate change and variability can be also incorporated into this framework to inform climate-driven drought for additional storage development and potential applications of water trading across counties.

  20. Response of closed basin lakes to interannual climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huybers, Kathleen; Rupper, Summer; Roe, Gerard H.

    2016-06-01

    Lakes are key indicators of a region's hydrological cycle, directly reflecting the basin-wide balance between precipitation and evaporation. Lake-level records are therefore valuable repositories of climate history. However, the interpretation of such records is not necessarily straightforward. Lakes act as integrators of the year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation and evaporation that occur even in a constant climate. Therefore lake levels can exhibit natural, unforced fluctuations that persist on timescales of decades or more. This behavior is important to account for when distinguishing between true climate change and interannual variability as the cause of past lake-level fluctuations. We demonstrate the operation of this general principle for the particular case-study of the Great Salt Lake, which has long historical lake-level and climatological records. We employ both full water-balance and linear models. Both models capture the timing and size of the lake's historical variations. We then model the lake's response to much longer synthetic time series of precipitation and evaporation calibrated to the observations, and compare the magnitude and frequency of the modeled response to the Great Salt Lake's historical record. We find that interannual climate variability alone can explain much of the decadal-to-centennial variations in the lake-level record. Further, analytic solutions to the linear model capture much of the full model's behavior, but fail to predict the most extreme lake-level variations. We then apply the models to other lake geometries, and evaluate how the timing and amplitude of a lake-level response differs with climatic and geometric setting. A lake's response to a true climatic shift can only be understood in the context of these expected persistent lake-level variations. On the basis of these results, we speculate that lake response to interannual climate variability may play an important part in explaining much of Holocene lake

  1. Prediction and predictability of North American seasonal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Infanti, Johnna M.

    Climate prediction on short time-scales such as months to seasons is of broad and current interest in the scientific research community. Monthly and seasonal climate prediction of variables such as precipitation, temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) has implications for users in the agricultural and water management domains, among others. It is thus important to further understand the complexities of prediction of these variables using the most recent practices in climate prediction. The overarching goal of this dissertation is to determine the important contributions to seasonal prediction skill, predictability, and variability over North America using current climate prediction models and approaches. This dissertation aims to study a variety of approaches to seasonal climate prediction of variables over North America, including both climate prediction systems and methods of analysis. We utilize the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) System for Intra-Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (ISI) to study seasonal climate prediction skill of North American and in particular for southeast US precipitation. We find that NMME results are often equal to or better than individual model results in terms of skill, as expected, making it a reasonable choice for southeast US seasonal climate predictions. However, climate models, including those involved in NMME, typically overestimate eastern Pacific warming during central Pacific El Nino events, which can affect regions that are influenced by teleconnections, such as the southeast US. Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) hindacasts and forecasts are included in NMME, and we preform a series of experiments that examine contributions to skill from certain drivers of North American climate prediction. The drivers we focus on are sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and their accuracy, land and atmosphere initialization, and ocean-atmosphere coupling. We compare measures of prediction skill of

  2. Comparison of Decadal AMOC Variability Among Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klinger, B. A.; Garuba, O. A.

    2012-12-01

    Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM's) often exhibit decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), but the nature of this variability shows great quantitative and qualitative differences among different experiments. Here uniform metrics compare AMOC variability among several AOGCM's in preindustrial control runs for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). All the models show decadal variability in meridional overturning. The 3-61 year band is examined to isolate this frequency range. The meridional stream function shows maximum variability in the North Atlantic ranging from about .5 to 1.8 Sv (about 3% to 10% of the time-mean overturning strength), with period (based on the lagged autocorrelation) ranging from about 10 to 25 years for most of the models (50 years for one model). In all models, overturning variability is strongest between 40N and 60N, with a weaker overturning signal propagating across the equator within a few years. Most of the models show a somewhat complex high-latitude density field associated with the meridional overturning, but with a tendency for high density to precede high overturning, as Dong and Sutton (2005) found in a single model. In summary, O(1) Sv North Atlantic decadal overturning variability associated with high latitude density variations is a robust feature of different climate models.

  3. Decadal Variability of Clouds and Comparison with Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, H.; Shen, T. J.; Jiang, J. H.; Yung, Y. L.

    2014-12-01

    An apparent climate regime shift occurred around 1998/1999, when the steady increase of global-mean surface temperature appeared to hit a hiatus. Coherent decadal variations are found in atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycles. Using 30-year cloud observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, we examine the decadal variability of clouds and associated cloud radiative effects on surface warming. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis is performed. After removing the seasonal cycle and ENSO signal in the 30-year data, we find that the leading EOF modes clearly represent a decadal variability in cloud fraction, well correlated with the indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The cloud radiative effects associated with decadal variations of clouds suggest a positive cloud feedback, which would reinforce the global warming hiatus by a net cloud cooling after 1998/1999. Climate model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature are compared with satellite observed cloud decadal variability. Copyright:

  4. Reservoir operation under variable climate: Case of Rozva Dam, Zimbabwe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ncube, S. P.; Makurira, H.; Kaseke, E.; Mhizha, A.

    The challenge of maintaining or improving the quality of rural livelihoods against the increasing threat of climate change (CC) and climate variability (CV) calls for the development of robust and tested systems, tools and procedures for the management of water resources. The research aimed at assessing reservoir operation under variable climate for Rozva Dam, a medium-sized reservoir in Zimbabwe. Rozva Dam is located in the Bikita District of Zimbabwe and has a full supply capacity of 2.8 Mm 3 at a maximum water level of 17.3 m. The research analysed 46 years of rainfall and temperature data to assess climate variability and or change. The CROPWAT model was used to estimate crop water requirements for the adjacent 80 hectare irrigation scheme. The WAFLEX model was applied to simulate the performance of the system under three scenarios: (1) existing demands and operational rules, (2) reduced water availability due to climate change, as predicted by the Ministry of Mines, but with increasing annual demands and (3) climate change situation coupled with change in irrigation technology. The results show a general decreasing linear trend for rainfall although the variance was not statistically significant at p = 0.05. A clearer cyclic pattern was observed for the decadal analysis. An increasing trend in both maximum and minimum temperature was observed although, again, these were not statistically significant with a Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient ( R sp) of below 0.5. The research used rainfall and temperature data as the basis for confirmation climate change and variability in the study area. Analyses show that the area is experiencing more of CV than CC. Modelling results show that the reservoir can satisfy current demands but will fail to cope under the forecasted increase in demand. The conclusions from the research are that the available water resources in the studied system are sufficient to satisfy the current demands. The predicted level of climate

  5. Interdecadal variability in surface climate during the instrumental period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osborn, Timothy

    2016-04-01

    Although long-term warming of global mean temperature is robust across different observational datasets, there are interesting features at interdecadal timescales that deserve further investigation. A realistic characterisation of interdecadal variability is critical. It is required for important applications such as the detection and attribution of climate changes and assessment of data-model agreement. Via its role in the slowdown of warming relative to model simulations, interdecadal variability is one of the factors considered in the expert judgement (reported in the IPCC's fifth assessment) that near-term projections of warming are likely to be less than those simulated by the CMIP5 ensemble of climate models. This highlights its relevance to future projections of both forced change and unforced variability. Interdecadal variability in surface temperatures will be characterised according to their regional and latitudinal structures. Some features differ between datasets, reflecting the structural uncertainty arising from different choices made for addressing inhomogeneities in the observations and incomplete observational coverage, resulting in different degrees of spatial smoothness and completeness. Other features are robust between datasets, representing short-term forcings and unforced variability. The unforced variability is associated with changes in atmospheric circulation, and these changes also drive regional precipitation anomalies. It is informative, therefore, to represent them as modes of variability in circulation-temperature-precipitation "space", but complications arise from the limited coverage of observational data, especially in the 19th century. Changes in data coverage alter the empirical relationship between these climate variables and need to be taken into account when comparing, for example, the decadal trends around the large El Nino events in 1877-78 and 1997-8.

  6. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  7. RECONSTRUCTING THE ORIGINS OF HIGH-ALPINE NICHES AND CUSHION LIFE FORM IN THE GENUS ANDROSACE S.L. (PRIMULACEAE)

    PubMed Central

    Boucher, Florian C.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Roquet, Cristina; Douzet, Rolland; Aubert, Serge; Alvarez, Nadir; Lavergne, Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    Relatively, few species have been able to colonize extremely cold alpine environments. We investigate the role played by the cushion life form in the evolution of climatic niches in the plant genus Androsace s.l., which spreads across the mountain ranges of the Northern Hemisphere. Using robust methods that account for phylogenetic uncertainty, intraspecific variability of climatic requirements and different life-history evolution scenarios, we show that climatic niches of Androsace s.l. exhibit low phylogenetic signal and that they evolved relatively recently and punctually. Models of niche evolution fitted onto phylogenies show that the cushion life form has been a key innovation providing the opportunity to occupy extremely cold environments, thus contributing to rapid climatic niche diversification in the genus Androsace s.l. We then propose a plausible scenario for the adaptation of plants to alpine habitats. PMID:22486702

  8. A 2,000-year reconstruction of the rain-fed maize agricultural niche in the US Southwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bocinsky, R. Kyle; Kohler, Timothy A.

    2014-12-01

    Humans experience, adapt to and influence climate at local scales. Paleoclimate research, however, tends to focus on continental, hemispheric or global scales, making it difficult for archaeologists and paleoecologists to study local effects. Here we introduce a method for high-frequency, local climate-field reconstruction from tree-rings. We reconstruct the rain-fed maize agricultural niche in two regions of the southwestern United States with dense populations of prehispanic farmers. Niche size and stability are highly variable within and between the regions. Prehispanic rain-fed maize farmers tended to live in agricultural refugia—areas most reliably in the niche. The timing and trajectory of the famous thirteenth century Pueblo migration can be understood in terms of relative niche size and stability. Local reconstructions like these illuminate the spectrum of strategies past humans used to adapt to climate change by recasting climate into the distributions of resources on which they depended.

  9. A 2,000-year reconstruction of the rain-fed maize agricultural niche in the US Southwest.

    PubMed

    Bocinsky, R Kyle; Kohler, Timothy A

    2014-01-01

    Humans experience, adapt to and influence climate at local scales. Paleoclimate research, however, tends to focus on continental, hemispheric or global scales, making it difficult for archaeologists and paleoecologists to study local effects. Here we introduce a method for high-frequency, local climate-field reconstruction from tree-rings. We reconstruct the rain-fed maize agricultural niche in two regions of the southwestern United States with dense populations of prehispanic farmers. Niche size and stability are highly variable within and between the regions. Prehispanic rain-fed maize farmers tended to live in agricultural refugia--areas most reliably in the niche. The timing and trajectory of the famous thirteenth century Pueblo migration can be understood in terms of relative niche size and stability. Local reconstructions like these illuminate the spectrum of strategies past humans used to adapt to climate change by recasting climate into the distributions of resources on which they depended. PMID:25472022

  10. Downscaling climate variability associated with quasi-periodic climate signals: A new statistical approach using MSSA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cañón, Julio; Domínguez, Francina; Valdés, Juan B.

    2011-02-01

    SummaryA statistical method is introduced to downscale hydroclimatic variables while incorporating the variability associated with quasi-periodic global climate signals. The method extracts statistical information of distributed variables from historic time series available at high resolution and uses Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) to reconstruct, on a cell-by-cell basis, specific frequency signatures associated with both the variable at a coarse scale and the global climate signals. Historical information is divided in two sets: a reconstruction set to identify the dominant modes of variability of the series for each cell and a validation set to compare the downscaling relative to the observed patterns. After validation, the coarse projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs) are disaggregated to higher spatial resolutions by using an iterative gap-filling MSSA algorithm to downscale the projected values of the variable, using the distributed series statistics and the MSSA analysis. The method is data adaptive and useful for downscaling short-term forecasts as well as long-term climate projections. The method is applied to the downscaling of temperature and precipitation from observed records and GCM projections over a region located in the US Southwest, taking into account the seasonal variability associated with ENSO.

  11. Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knuth, Kevin H.; Golera, Anthony; Curry, Charles T.; Huyser, Karen A.; Kevin R. Wheeler; Rossow, William B.

    2005-01-01

    The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

  12. Sensitivity of Detection and Attribution of Climate Change to Simulated Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imbers, J.; Lopez, A.; Huntingford, C.; Allen, M.

    2011-12-01

    The statement in the IPCC 4th Assessment that most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th-century is "very likely" due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas depends heavily on the statistical method of optimal fingerprinting and on its estimates of internal climate variability. In particular, the estimation of internally generated variability plays a central role in defining the "goodness-of-fit" between models and observations in both detection and attribution of external influences on climate and in the evaluation of climate models. However, most climate models remain deficient at representing important aspects of interannual and longer time-scale variability. We ask what is the sensitivity of attribution statements to a potential misrepresentation of internally-generated variability by climate models. Thus, we characterize natural variability with two statistical representations, a short and a long memory model both with the same number of parameters and we analyze the sensitivity of detection and attribution to these statistical parameters. We also investigate physically based arguments that could establish a superiority of one model over the other when both are statistically robust on the relatively short time series of a century typically used in the IPCC report. We aim to use the CMIP-5 ensemble to update this statement, accounting for a broader range of consistent model simulations and assessing the impact of the decade of near-stable temperatures post 2000.

  13. The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas

    2013-04-01

    When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with

  14. How does spatial variability of climate affect catchment streamflow predictions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patil, Sopan D.; Wigington, Parker J.; Leibowitz, Scott G.; Sproles, Eric A.; Comeleo, Randy L.

    2014-09-01

    Spatial variability of climate can negatively affect catchment streamflow predictions if it is not explicitly accounted for in hydrologic models. In this paper, we examine the changes in streamflow predictability when a hydrologic model is run with spatially variable (distributed) meteorological inputs instead of spatially uniform (lumped) meteorological inputs. Both lumped and distributed versions of the EXP-HYDRO model are implemented at 41 meso-scale (500-5000 km2) catchments in the Pacific Northwest region of USA. We use two complementary metrics of long-term spatial climate variability, moisture homogeneity index (IM) and temperature variability index (ITV), to analyze the performance improvement with distributed model. Results show that the distributed model performs better than the lumped model in 38 out of 41 catchments, and noticeably better (>10% improvement) in 13 catchments. Furthermore, spatial variability of moisture distribution alone is insufficient to explain the observed patterns of model performance improvement. For catchments with low moisture homogeneity (IM < 80%), IM is a better predictor of model performance improvement than ITV; whereas for catchments with high moisture homogeneity (IM > 80%), ITV is a better predictor of performance improvement than IM. Based on the results, we conclude that: (1) catchments that have low homogeneity of moisture distribution are the obvious candidates for using spatially distributed meteorological inputs, and (2) catchments with a homogeneous moisture distribution benefit from spatially distributed meteorological inputs if they also have high spatial variability of precipitation phase (rain vs. snow).

  15. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-01-01

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface. PMID:26369503

  16. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

    PubMed Central

    Harding, Jr., Lawrence W.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

    2016-01-01

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries. PMID:27026279

  17. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability

    PubMed Central

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-01-01

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1–2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface. PMID:26369503

  18. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay.

    PubMed

    Harding, Lawrence W; Mallonee, Michael E; Perry, Elgin S; Miller, W David; Adolf, Jason E; Gallegos, Charles L; Paerl, Hans W

    2016-01-01

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km(2) watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945-1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981-2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries. PMID:27026279

  19. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harding, Lawrence W., Jr.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

    2016-03-01

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

  20. ENSO Variability at Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hereid, K. A.; Quinn, T. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Edwards, R.; Cheng, H.; Shen, C.

    2011-12-01

    The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~1050 - 1250 CE) is a period of warm temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes caused by enhanced solar forcing. The tropical response to this forcing is variable; sediment records from the tropical Pacific indicate warm conditions in the western tropics and cooler temperatures in the east during this interval, paired with precipitation changes that suggest a northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Speleothem records and western Pacific sediment cores match this migration with a strengthened Asian monsoon, indicating a substantial reorganization in hydrology. However, the effect of these changes in zonal and meridional circulation patterns on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, is unclear. Conflicting hypotheses arise due to datasets that are too short to be representative of multidecadal ENSO variability trends, cannot identify individual ENSO events due to lower than annual resolution, or are located in remote, teleconnected regions. We present a suite of monthly resolved geochemical records from fossil Porites corals at Vanuatu (Tasmaloum, Espiritu Santo), a location whose climate is strongly influenced by variations in ENSO and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Our proxy coral records of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) variations provide multidecadal- to centennial-scale windows into ENSO variability and mean climate state from ~600 - 1250 CE in the deep tropics. Preliminary results, based on coral Sr/Ca variations during a portion of the MCA, suggest that SST was cooler than modern at Vanuatu, with similar levels of total variability. Additional data acquisition and future work will focus on assessing potential ENSO event frequency and magnitude changes during the MCA in the deep tropics.

  1. Niche breadth predicts geographical range size: a general ecological pattern.

    PubMed

    Slatyer, Rachel A; Hirst, Megan; Sexton, Jason P

    2013-08-01

    The range of resources that a species uses (i.e. its niche breadth) might determine the geographical area it can occupy, but consensus on whether a niche breadth-range size relationship generally exists among species has been slow to emerge. The validity of this hypothesis is a key question in ecology in that it proposes a mechanism for commonness and rarity, and if true, may help predict species' vulnerability to extinction. We identified 64 studies that measured niche breadth and range size, and we used a meta-analytic approach to test for the presence of a niche breadth-range size relationship. We found a significant positive relationship between range size and environmental tolerance breadth (z = 0.49), habitat breadth (z = 0.45), and diet breadth (z = 0.28). The overall positive effect persisted even when incorporating sampling effects. Despite significant variability in the strength of the relationship among studies, the general positive relationship suggests that specialist species might be disproportionately vulnerable to habitat loss and climate change due to synergistic effects of a narrow niche and small range size. An understanding of the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that drive and cause deviations from this niche breadth-range size pattern is an important future research goal. PMID:23773417

  2. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

    PubMed

    Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks. PMID:27547199

  3. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Escobar, Luis E.; Craft, Meggan E.

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks. PMID:27547199

  4. Northern hemisphere winter atmospheric climate: modes of natural variability and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keeley, Sarah P. E.; Collins, Matthew; Thorpe, Alan J.

    2008-08-01

    Under anthropogenic climate change it is possible that the increased radiative forcing and associated changes in mean climate may affect the “dynamical equilibrium” of the climate system; leading to a change in the relative dominance of different modes of natural variability, the characteristics of their patterns or their behavior in the time domain. Here we use multi-century integrations of version three of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model coupled to a mixed layer ocean to examine potential changes in atmosphere-surface ocean modes of variability. After first evaluating the simulated modes of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature and geopotential height against observations, we examine their behavior under an idealized equilibrium doubling of atmospheric CO2. We find no significant changes in the order of dominance, the spatial patterns or the associated time series of the modes. Having established that the dynamic equilibrium is preserved in the model on doubling of CO2, we go on to examine the temperature pattern of mean climate change in terms of the modes of variability; the motivation being that the pattern of change might be explicable in terms of changes in the amount of time the system resides in a particular mode. In addition, if the two are closely related, we might be able to assess the relative credibility of different spatial patterns of climate change from different models (or model versions) by assessing their representation of variability. Significant shifts do appear to occur in the mean position of residence when examining a truncated set of the leading order modes. However, on examining the complete spectrum of modes, it is found that the mean climate change pattern is close to orthogonal to all of the modes and the large shifts are a manifestation of this orthogonality. The results suggest that care should be exercised in using a truncated set of variability EOFs to evaluate climate change signals.

  5. Impacts of climate change and internal climate variability on french rivers streamflows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Eric

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of the impacts of climate change often requires to set up long chains of modeling, from the model to estimate the future concentration of greenhouse gases to the impact model. Throughout the modeling chain, sources of uncertainty accumulate making the exploitation of results for the development of adaptation strategies difficult. It is proposed here to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and the associated uncertainties. The contribution of the uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and internal variability are addressed in this work. To have a large ensemble of climate simulations, the study is based on Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), including several simulations from the same GCM to properly assess uncertainties from internal climate variability. Simulations from the four Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) are downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). The hydrological system Isba-Modcou is then driven by the downscaling results on a 8 km grid over France. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and water balance and Modcou a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba. Based on that framework, uncertainties uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and climate internal variability are evaluated. Their relative importance is described for the next decades and the end of this century. In a last part, uncertainties due to internal climate variability on streamflows simulated with downscaled GCM and Isba-Modcou are evaluated against observations and hydrological reconstructions on the whole 20th century. Hydrological reconstructions are based on the downscaling of recent atmospheric reanalyses of the 20th century and observations of temperature and precipitation. We show that the multi-decadal variability

  6. Evidence of multidecadal climate variability in the Gulf of Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poore, Richard Z.; Brock, John C.

    2011-01-01

    The northern Gulf of Mexico coastal region is vulnerable to a variety of natural hazards, many of which are linked to climate and climate variability. Hurricanes, which are one such climate-related hazard, are a major recurring problem, and the active hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 raised interest in better understanding the controls and risks of hurricanes. Examination of historical records reveals intervals of alternating low and high hurricane activity that appear to be related to changes in average sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean. Analyses of instrumental temperature records from the North Atlantic show decadal-scale oscillations of slightly higher versus slightly lower average temperature extending back in time for over 100 years. This oscillation is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

  7. Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, R.L.; Del Genio, A.D. )

    1994-09-01

    Simulations of natural variability by two GCMs are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and SST vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a [open quotes]red[close quotes] spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out ENSO and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone. 28 refs., 13 figs., 2 tabs.

  8. Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. L.; Del Genio, A. D.

    1994-01-01

    Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

  9. Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghil, Michael; Chekroun, Mickaël D.; Simonnet, Eric

    2008-08-01

    The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we review recent theoretical advances in studying the wind-driven circulation of the oceans. In doing so, we concentrate on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans, which is dominated by the presence of a larger, anticyclonic and a smaller, cyclonic gyre. The two gyres share the eastward extension of western boundary currents, such as the Gulf Stream or Kuroshio, and are induced by the shear in the winds that cross the respective ocean basins. The boundary currents and eastward jets carry substantial amounts of heat and momentum, and thus contribute in a crucial way to Earth’s climate, and to changes therein. Changes in this double-gyre circulation occur from year to year and decade to decade. We study this low-frequency variability of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the low-frequency variability of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. The range of these uncertainties has barely decreased, or even increased, over the last three decades. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural instability-in the classical, topological sense-of the equations governing climate dynamics, including but not restricted to those of atmospheric and ocean dynamics. We propose a novel approach to understand, and possibly reduce, these uncertainties, based on the concepts and

  10. Remote sensing of climate changes effects on forest biophysical variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Dida, Adrian I.; Zoran, Liviu Florin V.

    2014-10-01

    Climate variability represents the ensemble of net radiation, precipitation, wind and temperature characteristic for a region in a certain time scale (e.g.monthly, seasonal annual). The temporal and/or spatial sensitivity of forest vegetation dynamics to climate variability is used to characterize the quantitative relationship between these two quantities in temporal and/or spatial scales. So, climate variability has a great impact on the forest vegetation dynamics. Forest vegetation phenology constitutes an efficient bio-indicator of climate and anthropogenic changes impacts and a key parameter for understanding and modeling vegetation-climate interactions. Satellite remote sensing is a very useful tool to assess the main phenological events based on tracking significant changes on temporal trajectories of forest biophysical parameters like as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIs) and Leaf Aria Index (LAI), which requires time-series data with good time resolution, over homogeneous area, cloud-free and not affected by atmospheric and geometric effects and variations in sensor characteristics (calibration, spectral responses). This paper will quantify this impact over a forest ecosystem Cernica- Branesti placed in the North-Eastern part of Bucharest town, Romania, with NDVI and LAI parameters extracted from MODIS Terra and NOAA AVHRR satellite images in synergy with meteorological data over 2000-2013 periods. For investigated test area, considerable NDVI and LAI decline have been observed during heat wave and drought events of 2003, 2007 and 2012 years. Under water stress conditions, it is evident that environmental factors such as soil type, parent material, and topography are not correlated with NDVI dynamics.

  11. Monthly means of selected climate variables for 1985 - 1989

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, S.; Wu, C.-Y.; Zero, J.; Schemm, J.-K.; Park, C.-K.; Suarez, M.

    1992-01-01

    Meteorologists are accustomed to viewing instantaneous weather maps, since these contain the most relevant information for the task of producing short-range weather forecasts. Climatologists, on the other hand, tend to deal with long-term means, which portray the average climate. The recent emphasis on dynamical extended-range forecasting and, in particular measuring and predicting short term climate change makes it important that we become accustomed to looking at variations on monthly and longer time scales. A convenient toll for researchers to familiarize themselves with the variability which occurs in selected parameters on these time scales is provided. The format of the document was chosen to help facilitate the intercomparison of various parameters and highlight the year-to-year variability in monthly means.

  12. Holocene Climatic Variability in the Indian Monsoon Domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Praveen Kumar; Anoop, Ambili; Menzel, Philip; Gaye, Birgit; Basavaiah, Nathani; Jehangir, Arshid; Prasad, Sushma

    2013-04-01

    The available data on Holocene climate variability from Asia indicates spatio-temporal changes in the precipitation over this vast region. Detailed information on the timing, duration, regionality, and causes of these fluctuations is not well understood, especially over the Indian subcontinent. My work focuses on long core sediments from lake Tso Moriri (78°14'-78°25'N and 32°40'-33°02'E; altitude: 4500 m) situated in climatically sensitive zone of NW Himalayas affected by both mid-latitude westerlies and Indian summer monsoon. Two cores ca.7 m were retrieved from the lake at different water depths (ca. 40m and 105m) in July 2011. Investigations reveal marked changes in grain size, lamination quality, mineralogy, organic and carbonate content suggesting changes in lake level, direction of inflow, and biological productivity that in turn are influenced by regional climate. As the lake lies in a tectonically active region, I have also undertaken detailed geomorphometric (knick-point, Hack index), and drainage pattern analysis of the major inflowing streams to decipher the active tectonics in the region. Sharp changes in river course and slope gradient indicates the presence of an active N-S trending fault in western flank of the lake. The data from lake Tso Moriri will be compared with other high-resolution records from lake Lonar and stalagmites in NE India to reconstruct the forcing mechanism of Holocene climatic variability.

  13. Stratospheric influence on Northern Hemisphere winter climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzeau, Gaelle; Douville, Herve; Saint Martin, David

    2010-05-01

    Despite significant improvements in observing and data assimilation systems, long-range dynamical forecasting remains a difficult challenge for the climate modelling community. The skill of operational seasonal forecasting systems is particularly poor in the northern extratropics where seas surface temperature (SST) has a weaker influence than in the Tropics. It is therefore relevant to look for additional potential sources of long-range climate predictability in the stratosphere using ensembles of global atmospheric simulations. Besides a control experiment where the ARPEGE-Climat model is only driven by SST, parallel simulations have been performed in which an additional control on climate variability has been accounted for through the nudging of the northern extratropical stratosphere towards the ERA40 reanalysis. Though idealized, this original experiment design allows us to compare the relative contribution of the lower and upper boundary forcings on the simulated tropospheric variability. Results show that the stratospheric nudging improves the climatology and interannual variability of the mid-latitude troposphere, especially in winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Major impacts are found in particular on the simulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations (AO and NAO). Case studies were carried out for the 1976-1977 and 1988-1989 winters, corresponding to extreme phases of the AO. Results confirm the robustness of the positive impact of the nudging, especially for winter 1976-1977 corresponding to relatively weak SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. A sensitivity study to the model resolution shows that a well-resolved stratosphere is not necessary for the nudging to be efficient. Besides seasonal mean results, analysis of the day-to-day variability in winter allowed us to better understand the stratospheric polar vortex influence on the tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

  14. Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

    2016-06-01

    This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse ~1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to ~0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

  15. Heat freezes niche evolution.

    PubMed

    Araújo, Miguel B; Ferri-Yáñez, Francisco; Bozinovic, Francisco; Marquet, Pablo A; Valladares, Fernando; Chown, Steven L

    2013-09-01

    Climate change is altering phenology and distributions of many species and further changes are projected. Can species physiologically adapt to climate warming? We analyse thermal tolerances of a large number of terrestrial ectotherm (n = 697), endotherm (n = 227) and plant (n = 1816) species worldwide, and show that tolerance to heat is largely conserved across lineages, while tolerance to cold varies between and within species. This pattern, previously documented for ectotherms, is apparent for this group and for endotherms and plants, challenging the longstanding view that physiological tolerances of species change continuously across climatic gradients. An alternative view is proposed in which the thermal component of climatic niches would overlap across species more than expected. We argue that hard physiological boundaries exist that constrain evolution of tolerances of terrestrial organisms to high temperatures. In contrast, evolution of tolerances to cold should be more frequent. One consequence of conservatism of upper thermal tolerances is that estimated niches for cold-adapted species will tend to underestimate their upper thermal limits, thereby potentially inflating assessments of risk from climate change. In contrast, species whose climatic preferences are close to their upper thermal limits will unlikely evolve physiological tolerances to increased heat, thereby being predictably more affected by warming. PMID:23869696

  16. Nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability: from curves to manifolds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The necessity of efficient dimensionality reduction methods capturing dynamical properties of the system from observed data is evident. Recent study shows that nonlinear dynamical mode (NDM) expansion is able to solve this problem and provide adequate phase variables in climate data analysis [1]. A single NDM is logical extension of linear spatio-temporal structure (like empirical orthogonal function pattern): it is constructed as nonlinear transformation of hidden scalar time series to the space of observed variables, i. e. projection of observed dataset onto a nonlinear curve. Both the hidden time series and the parameters of the curve are learned simultaneously using Bayesian approach. The only prior information about the hidden signal is the assumption of its smoothness. The optimal nonlinearity degree and smoothness are found using Bayesian evidence technique. In this work we do further extension and look for vector hidden signals instead of scalar with the same smoothness restriction. As a result we resolve multidimensional manifolds instead of sum of curves. The dimension of the hidden manifold is optimized using also Bayesian evidence. The efficiency of the extension is demonstrated on model examples. Results of application to climate data are demonstrated and discussed. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510

  17. Understanding the link between large-scale climate variability and regional hydrologic variability using weather patterns as intermediate variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renard, Benjamin; Lall, Upmanu

    2013-04-01

    Climate naturally follows specific modes of variability, quantified by some climate indices (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation NAO, Southern Oscillation Index SOI, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO, etc.). These modes of variability are due to large-scale climatic processes affecting large areas, and whose temporal scales range from a few months to a few decades. The temporal variability of hydrological regimes depends on such modes of variability, as has been reported in several regions worldwide. However, this relationship is more difficult to observe in some other regions, for several possible reasons: (i) the large natural variability of hydrological regimes, especially in the extreme domain, might strongly restrict the ability to detect weak or moderate relationships; (ii) Standard modes of variability like the NAO, SOI, etc. might not be the most relevant for some regions. This presentation explores an approach which, instead of directly seeking links between large-scale climate variability and regional hydrologic variability, decomposes the problem into two transitive "sub-problems" involving weather patterns as intermediate variables. Weather patterns are used to describe the atmospheric situation over a region as a categorical variable. As region-specific indices, they are potentially more explanatory than larger-scale indices like the NAO or SOI to explain the regional variability of hydrologic regimes. Consequently, two probabilistic models are derived: (1) a model to predict the frequency of weather patterns using large-scale climate indices (NAO, SOI, etc.) as predictors; (2) a model to predict the regional distribution of some hydrologic variable (e.g. number of flood events) using the frequencies of weather patterns as predictors. A case study based on French flood data is used to illustrate the application of this approach. It shows that each sub-model has some predictive ability: for instance, the annual number of flood events can be predicted

  18. Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on (Marine) Animals: Physiological Underpinnings and Evolutionary Consequences.

    PubMed

    Pörtner, Hans O; Gutt, Julian

    2016-07-01

    Understanding thermal ranges and limits of organisms becomes important in light of climate change and observed effects on ecosystems as reported by the IPCC (2014). Evolutionary adaptation to temperature is presently unable to keep animals and other organisms in place; if they can these rather follow the moving isotherms. These effects of climate change on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have brought into focus the mechanisms by which temperature and its oscillations shape the biogeography and survival of species. For animals, the integrative concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) has successfully characterized the sublethal limits to performance and the consequences of such limits for ecosystems. Recent models illustrate how routine energy demand defines the realized niche. Steady state temperature-dependent performance profiles thus trace the thermal window and indicate a key role for aerobic metabolism, and the resulting budget of available energy (power), in defining performance under routine conditions, from growth to exercise and reproduction. Differences in the performance and productivity of marine species across latitudes relate to changes in mitochondrial density, capacity, and other features of cellular design. Comparative studies indicate how and why such mechanisms underpinning OCLTT may have developed on evolutionary timescales in different climatic zones and contributed to shaping the functional characteristics and species richness of the respective fauna. A cause-and-effect understanding emerges from considering the relationships between fluctuations in body temperature, cellular design, and performance. Such principles may also have been involved in shaping the functional characteristics of survivors in mass extinction events during earth's history; furthermore, they may provide access to understanding the evolution of endothermy in mammals and birds. Accordingly, an understanding is emerging how climate changes and

  19. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  20. Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.

    PubMed

    Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

    2015-03-01

    How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. PMID:25631995

  1. Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change

    PubMed Central

    Kingsolver, Joel G.; Buckley, Lauren B.

    2015-01-01

    How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. PMID:25631995

  2. Can climate variability contribute to the ``missing'' CO2 sink?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Aiguo; Fung, Inez Y.

    1993-09-01

    The contemporary carbon budget for the atmosphere requires a large "missing" carbon sink to balance anthropogenic carbon inputs. We investigated climatic effects on carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and the undisturbed biosphere and assessed the possible contribution of climate variability to the carbon sink. Empirical models and global temperature and precipitation data sets were used in the study. It was found that climate perturbations during 1940-1988 caused considerable variations in plant productivity and soil respiration. The different sensitivities of the fluxes to climate perturbations led to a significant carbon accumulation in the biosphere. The cumulative carbon sink for the period 1950-1984 (˜20±5 GtC or 1012 kg C) was predominantly located in mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere (30°-60°N) and could amount to half of the missing CO2 sink as derived from deconvolution analyses. Our results indicate that climate variations have unequal impacts on biospheric carbon fluxes from different ecosystems and imply that caution must be exercised in generalizing in situ observations to the globe.

  3. Genetic Diversity and Ecological Niche Modelling of Wild Barley: Refugia, Large-Scale Post-LGM Range Expansion and Limited Mid-Future Climate Threats?

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Joanne; van Zonneveld, Maarten; Dawson, Ian K.; Booth, Allan; Waugh, Robbie; Steffenson, Brian

    2014-01-01

    Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum) in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare). Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR) and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR) markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM) and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s) climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security. PMID:24505252

  4. Colorado River Water Availability Assessment Under Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yarberry, A. J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Prairie, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    The Colorado River is ruled by a complex system of agreements and regulations that fully allocate its resources. During the drought from 2000 to 2008, decision makers and stakeholders began to question the abilities of existing operating procedures to handle such events; and whether dry events were historically common. A recent study found that a scenario of 20% reduction in the mean annual Colorado River flow due to climate change by 2057 resulted in a nearly 10-fold increase in the probability of annual reservoir depletion by 2057. That study also suggested that flexibility in current management practices could mitigate some of the increased risk from climate change-induced reductions in flows. The general approach of past studies has been to model and generate streamflow scenarios under climate change that are then driven through decision and management models of water resources systems to quantify the risk and reliability of various aspects of the system. Management alternatives are considered to improve the reliability to a desired level under streamflow variability. The methodology used by previous studies assumed that the projected demand growth is a given and that it has to be met in the future. We are of the opinion that this need not be the case, which motivates the present study. To this end an assessment of water availability in the basin was performed using a simple heuristic model under different climate scenarios for the available storage capacity and minimum storage requirements. From the simulations, using the predicted future levels of demand of 13.5 and 14.4 MAF as per current agreements in the basin and the current consumptive use of 12.7 MAF, the key findings are that (i) The reliability of meeting a demand of 13.5 MAF, decreases from 99% to 94% for natural climate variability and a 20% reduction in mean streamflow due to climate change, respectively; and, (ii) For a demand of 14.4 MAF, the reliability decreases from 97% to 70%. However, for

  5. Sensitivity of the East African rift lakes to climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olaka, L.; Trauth, M. H.

    2009-04-01

    Lakes in the East African Rift have provided excellent proxies to reconstruct past climate changes in the low latitudes. The lakes occupy volcano-tectonic depressions with highly variable climate and hydrological setting, that present a good opportunity to study the climatic and hydrogeological influences on the lake water budget. Previous studies have used lake floor sediments to establish the sensitivity of the East African rift lakes. This study focuses on geomorphology and climate to offer additional or alternative record of lake history that are key to quantifying sensitivity of these lakes as archives to external and internal climatic forcings. By using the published Holocene lake areas and levels, we analyze twelve lakes on the eastern arm of the East African rift; Ziway, Awassa, Turkana, Suguta, Baringo, Nakuru, Elmenteita, Naivasha, Natron, Manyara and compare with Lake Victoria, that occupies the plateau between the east and the western arms of the rift. Using the SRTM data, Hypsometric (area-altitude) analysis has been used to compare the lake basins between latitude 80 North and 30 South. The mean elevation for the lakes, is between 524 and 2262 meters above sea level, the lakes' hypsometric integrals (HI), a measure of landmass volume above the reference plane, vary from 0.31 to 0.76. The aridity index (Ai), defined as Precipitation/ Evapotranspiration, quantifies the water available to a lake, it encompasses land cover and climatic effects. It is lowest (arid) in the basin between the Ethiopian rift and the Kenyan rift and at the southern termination of the Kenyan Rift in the catchments of lake Turkana, Suguta, Baringo and Manyara with values of 0.55, 0.43, 0.43 and 0.5 respectively. And it is highest (wet) in the catchments of, Ziway, Awassa, Nakuru and Naivasha as 1.33,1.03 and 1.2 respectively, which occupy the highest points of the rift. Lake Victoria has an index of 1.42 the highest of these lakes and receives a high precipitation. We use a

  6. Impacts of Austrian Climate Variability on Honey Bee Mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Switanek, Matt; Brodschneider, Robert; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo

    2015-04-01

    Global food production, as it is today, is not possible without pollinators such as the honey bee. It is therefore alarming that honey bee populations across the world have seen increased mortality rates in the last few decades. The challenges facing the honey bee calls into question the future of our food supply. Beside various infectious diseases, Varroa destructor is one of the main culprits leading to increased rates of honey bee mortality. Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite which strongly depends on honey bee brood for reproduction and can wipe out entire colonies. However, climate variability may also importantly influence honey bee breeding cycles and bee mortality rates. Persistent weather events affects vegetation and hence foraging possibilities for honey bees. This study first defines critical statistical relationships between key climate indicators (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and bee mortality rates across Austria, using 6 consecutive years of data. Next, these leading indicators, as they vary in space and time, are used to build a statistical model to predict bee mortality rates and the respective number of colonies affected. Using leave-one-out cross validation, the model reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 21% with respect to predictions made with the mean mortality rate and the number of colonies. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo test is used to establish that the model's predictions are statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. These results highlight the influence of climate variables on honey bee populations, although variability in climate, by itself, cannot fully explain colony losses. This study was funded by the Austrian project 'Zukunft Biene'.

  7. Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

    PubMed Central

    Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124

  8. Reconstruction of principal dynamical modes from climatic variability: nonlinear approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

    2015-04-01

    Analysis of multivariate time-series produced by complex systems requires efficient tools for reduction of data dimension. We consider this problem in relation to empirical modeling of climate, which implies an analysis of spatial-distributed time-series. The main goal is to establish the number of principal modes which have key contribution to data and actually governs the observed variability. Currently, the number of widely used linear methods based on PCA and factor analysis exists, which yield different data decompositions taking into consideration simultanious/time-lag correlations between spatial grid points. However, the question about possibility of improving the decomposition by taking into account nonlinear couplings between variables often remains untouched. In the report the method for constructing principal dynamic modes on the basis of low-dimensional nonlinear parametric representation of observed multivariate time-series is suggested. It is aimed to extracting the set of latent modes that both explains an essential part of variability, and obeys the simplest evolution law. Thus, this approach can be used for optimal reconstruction of the phase space for empirical prognostic modeling of observed dynamics. The evidence of nonlinear couplings in SST space-distributed data covering the Globe is investigated by the proposed approach. It is demonstrated that the obtained principal modes capture more part of SST variability than principal components (PCs) constructed by either EOF decomposition or its spatio-temporal extension. Relation of these modes to various climate phenomena is shown and discussed in the report. The application of the approach to data-driven forecast of climate bahavior is also discussed.

  9. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4 - 4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2.2). Conclusions Motivation for

  10. Evaluating environmental flows under climate variability and change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilby, R.

    2012-04-01

    How much river flow is needed to ensure healthy freshwater ecosystems? This is a question that has exercised environmental managers for decades and one that is being made even harder by the prospect of anthropogenic climate change. The response requires balancing the long-term water demands of society with the needs of the environment in a sustainable and least cost way. Meeting these challenges will require more flexible water management systems and processes that recognise changing environmental limits, incentivise more environmentally-sensitive behaviours by water users and abstractors during times of water scarcity, and a move away from capital intensive, supply-side solutions. This talk evaluates the sensitivity of river flows to decadal variations in rainfall, abstraction amounts, licensing regime, and climate change. The overall objective is to determine how achievable abstraction volumes vary with different e-flow standards and water licensing regimes, under climate variability and change. The River Itchen in southern England has historically experienced unsustainable levels of water abstraction and is used as a test basin. The talk will consider the extent to which a 'smarter' approach to abstraction licensing could ensure that e-flow standards are met despite large uncertainty in the future climate, whilst having a minimal impact on security of water supplies.

  11. Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Mars Present Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1996-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate the nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mars'present climate. We have applied a three-dimensional climate model based on the full hydrostatic primitive equations to determine the spatial, but primarily, the temporal structures of the planet's large-scale circulation as it evolves during a given seasonal advance, and, over multi-annual cycles. The particular climate model applies simplified physical parameterizations and is computationally efficient. It could thus easily be integrated in a perpetual season or advancing season configuration, as well as over many Mars years. We have assessed both high and low-frequency components of the circulation (i.e., motions having periods of Omicron(2-10 days) or greater than Omicron(10 days), respectively). Results from this investigation have explored the basic issue whether Mars' climate system is naturally 'chaotic' associated with nonlinear interactions of the large-scale circulation-regardless of any allowance for year-to-year variations in external forcing mechanisms. Titles of papers presented at scientific conferences and a manuscript to be submitted to the scientific literature are provided. An overview of a areas for further investigation is also presented.

  12. Assessing variability in climate data: a significant event viewer tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozum, Iryna; Raoult, Baudouin; Dee, Dick

    2014-05-01

    The EU funded CHARMe project ("Characterization of metadata to allow high-quality climate applications and services") addresses the major difficulty faced by users of climate data when judging whether data are fit for purpose, by introducing the concept of 'Commentary' metadata. The ECMWF's ERA-CLIM reanalysis project produced several climate data products including the 111 years Observation Feedback Archive which contains all the earth observations processed by the reanalysis, as well as, for each of them, feedback information generated by the data assimilation system. This information is complemented with a database of significant events which can affect data, such as volcanic eruptions, the launch of new satellites or El Niño phases, etc. A web-based graphical tool is being developed that will allow users to interactively browse and visualise time series of climate data with their associated events. This would allow users to become more familiar with the variety of observations that feed into the reanalysis, and to determine whether the variability and features seen in the dataset were likely to be artefacts of the measurement or processing steps, or real changes in the environment.

  13. Earth Climate Changes Connected To Solar Diameter and Irradiance Variabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lefebvre, S.; Rozelot, J. P.

    Recent studies indicate that small but persistent variations in the total solar irradiance may play an important role in climate changes. If it is known that such changes are mainly due to changes in sunspots darkness and faculae brightness, it begins to be understood that changes in the radius of the Sun may also play a role. In a first part of this paper, we will show how the irradiance is affected by small distortions of the solar shape. Indeed such departures to a pure spherical Sun can be modelized as they reflect the gravitational distortions inside the Sun (variability of the rotation rate both in latitude and in depth as deduced by helioseismic measurements). These departures have been also observed from space (MDI on board SOHO) and from ground (solar astrolabes, scanning heliometer or other means). Such a variability on the Sun's di- ameter, certainly of no more than 40 mas (maybe less), will imply a change in the luminosity of about 6 parts per 10000. For the time being such variations have not been yet taken into account in the Earth climate changes. In the second part of this paper, we will focus on a longer period of time. We will briefly review the variabil- ity of the solar diameter over the last past four centuries, as it is suspected now with a rather good confidence that such a temporal variability may have a sense. We will compare this variability with the global Earth temperatures used as a climatic proxy. It can be seen that diameter changes over such a long period of time are indicative of an external variability on the Earth climate. The physical mechanism involved is obviously through the irradiance changes for which we will emphasize the need to get accurate and simultaneous measurements of the Sun's radius. The determination of the commonly used ratio W, which measures the relative variations of the radius over the relative variations of the irradiance, and as deduced in the first part of this paper, is helpful to pinpoint the source of

  14. To move or to evolve: contrasting patterns of intercontinental connectivity and climatic niche evolution in “Terebinthaceae” (Anacardiaceae and Burseraceae)

    PubMed Central

    Weeks, Andrea; Zapata, Felipe; Pell, Susan K.; Daly, Douglas C.; Mitchell, John D.; Fine, Paul V. A.

    2014-01-01

    Many angiosperm families are distributed pantropically, yet for any given continent little is known about which lineages are ancient residents or recent arrivals. Here we use a comprehensive sampling of the pantropical sister pair Anacardiaceae and Burseraceae to assess the relative importance of continental vicariance, long-distance dispersal and niche-conservatism in generating its distinctive pattern of diversity over time. Each family has approximately the same number of species and identical stem age, yet Anacardiaceae display a broader range of fruit morphologies and dispersal strategies and include species that can withstand freezing temperatures, whereas Burseraceae do not. We found that nuclear and chloroplast data yielded a highly supported phylogenetic reconstruction that supports current taxonomic concepts and time-calibrated biogeographic reconstructions that are broadly congruent with the fossil record. We conclude that the most recent common ancestor of these families was widespread and likely distributed in the Northern Hemisphere during the Cretaceous and that vicariance between Eastern and Western Hemispheres coincided with the initial divergence of the families. The tempo of diversification of the families is strikingly different. Anacardiaceae steadily accumulated lineages starting in the Late Cretaceous–Paleocene while the majority of Burseraceae diversification occurred in the Miocene. Multiple dispersal- and vicariance-based intercontinental colonization events are inferred for both families throughout the past 100 million years. However, Anacardiaceae have shifted climatic niches frequently during this time, while Burseraceae have experienced very few shifts between dry and wet climates and only in the tropics. Thus, we conclude that both Anacardiaceae and Burseraceae move easily but that Anacardiaceae have adapted more often, either due to more varied selective pressures or greater intrinsic lability. PMID:25506354

  15. Impacts of forced and unforced climate variability on extreme floods using a large climate ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martel, Jean-Luc; Brissette, François; Chen, Jie

    2016-04-01

    Frequency analysis has been widely used for the inference of flood magnitude and rainfall intensity required in engineering design. However, this inference is based on the concept of stationarity. How accurate is it when taking into account climate variability (i.e. both internal- and externally-forced variabilities)? Even in the absence of human-induced climate change, the short temporal horizon of the historical records renders this task extremely difficult to accomplish. To overcome this situation, large ensembles of simulations from a single climate model can be used to assess the impact of climate variability on precipitation and streamflow extremes. Thus, the objective of this project is to determine the reliability of return period estimates using the CanESM2 large ensemble. The spring flood annual maxima metric over snowmelt-dominated watersheds was selected to take into account the limits of global circulation models to properly simulate convective precipitation. The GR4J hydrological model coupled with the CemaNeige snow model was selected and calibrated using gridded observation datasets on snowmelt-dominated watersheds in Quebec, Canada. Using the hydrological model, streamflows were simulated using bias corrected precipitation and temperature data from the 50 members of CanESM2. Flood frequency analyses on the spring flood annual maxima were then computed using the Gumbel distribution with a 90% confidence interval. The 20-year return period estimates were then compared to assess the impact of natural climate variability over the 1971-2000 return period. To assess the impact of global warming, this methodology was then repeated for three time slices: reference period (1971-2000), near future (2036-2065) and far future (2071-2100). Over the reference period results indicate that the relative error between the return period estimates of two members can be up to 25%. Regarding the near future and far future periods, natural climate variability of extreme

  16. Mapping the climate: guidance on appropriate techniques to map climate variables and their uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaye, N. R.; Hartley, A.; Hemming, D.

    2012-02-01

    Maps are a crucial asset in communicating climate science to a diverse audience, and there is a wealth of software available to analyse and visualise climate information. However, this availability makes it easy to create poor maps as users often lack an underlying cartographic knowledge. Unlike traditional cartography, where many known standards allow maps to be interpreted easily, there is no standard mapping approach used to represent uncertainty (in climate or other information). Consequently, a wide range of techniques have been applied for this purpose, and users may spend unnecessary time trying to understand the mapping approach rather than interpreting the information presented. Furthermore, communicating and visualising uncertainties in climate data and climate change projections, using for example ensemble based approaches, presents additional challenges for mapping that require careful consideration. The aim of this paper is to provide background information and guidance on suitable techniques for mapping climate variables, including uncertainty. We assess a range of existing and novel techniques for mapping variables and uncertainties, comparing "intrinsic" approaches that use colour in much the same way as conventional thematic maps with "extrinsic" approaches that incorporate additional geometry such as points or features. Using cartographic knowledge and lessons learned from mapping in different disciplines we propose the following 6 general mapping guidelines to develop a suitable mapping technique that represents both magnitude and uncertainty in climate data:

    - use a sensible sequential or diverging colour scheme;

    - use appropriate colour symbolism if it is applicable;

    - ensure the map is usable by colour blind people;

    - use a data classification scheme that does not misrepresent the data;

    - use a map

  17. Plasticity of oxidative metabolism in variable climates: molecular mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Seebacher, Frank; Brand, Martin D; Else, Paul L; Guderley, Helga; Hulbert, Anthony J; Moyes, Christopher D

    2010-01-01

    Converting food to chemical energy (ATP) that is usable by cells is a principal requirement to sustain life. The rate of ATP production has to be sufficient for housekeeping functions, such as protein synthesis and maintaining membrane potentials, as well as for growth and locomotion. Energy metabolism is temperature sensitive, and animals respond to environmental variability at different temporal levels, from within-individual to evolutionary timescales. Here we review principal molecular mechanisms that underlie control of oxidative ATP production in response to climate variability. Nuclear transcription factors and coactivators control expression of mitochondrial proteins and abundance of mitochondria. Fatty acid and phospholipid concentrations of membranes influence the activity of membrane-bound proteins as well as the passive leak of protons across the mitochondrial membrane. Passive proton leak as well as protein-mediated proton leak across the inner mitochondrial membrane determine the efficacy of ATP production but are also instrumental in endothermic heat production and as a defense against reactive oxygen species. Both transcriptional mechanisms and membrane composition interact with environmental temperature and diet, and this interaction between diet and temperature in determining mitochondrial function links the two major environmental variables that are affected by changing climates. The limits to metabolic plasticity could be set by the production of reactive oxygen species leading to cellular damage, limits to substrate availability in mitochondria, and a disproportionally large increase in proton leak over ATP production. PMID:20586603

  18. Understanding Potential Climate Variability Impacts on the Offshore Energy Industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stear, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability may have important implications for the offshore energy industry. Scenarios of increased storm activity and changes in sea level could require the retrofit of existing offshore platforms and coastal infrastructure, the decommissioning of facilities for which upgrade or relocation is not economically viable, and the development of new methods and equipment which are removed from or less sensitive to environmental loads. Over the past years the energy industry has been actively involved in collaborative research efforts with government and academia to identify the potential changes in the offshore operating environment, and corresponding risk implications. This presentation will review several of these efforts, and for several of the hypothetical climate variation scenarios, review the potential impacts on and possible mitigations for offshore and coastal energy infrastructure and operations.

  19. Functional cereals for production in new and variable climates.

    PubMed

    Henry, Robert J; Rangan, Parimalan; Furtado, Agnelo

    2016-04-01

    Adaptation of cereal crops to variable or changing climates requires that essential quality attributes are maintained to deliver food that will be acceptable to human consumers. Advances in cereal genomics are delivering insights into the molecular basis of nutritional and functional quality traits in cereals and defining new genetic resources. Understanding the influence of the environment on expression of these traits will support the retention of these essential functional properties during climate adaptation. New cereals for use as whole grain or ground to flour for other food products may be based upon the traditional species such as rice and wheat currently used in these food applications but may also include new options exploiting genomics tools to allow accelerated domestication of new species. PMID:26828379

  20. Linking lake variability, climate, and human activity in Basotu, Tanzania.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Higgins, Lindsey; Westerberg, Lars-Ove; Risberg, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Lake Basotu (4.3697°S, 35.0728°E) is a crater lake in north-central Tanzania. This lake is an important source of freshwater for local people as no perennial rivers are present. Due to intensive agricultural methods and climatic factors, lake level has fluctuated greatly over time. A history of environmental variability of the past 1800 years was established using the diatom record, magnetic parameters, and carbon content from a three meter long sediment core. Fluctuations in modern lake extent (1973 - 2015) were calculated using archived Landsat images and compared to meteorological records and documents of activity around the lake to determine the greatest impacts and their consequences on this essential water resource. Variations in the paleo-record indicate that fluctuations in lake level are not abnormal, however human influence has likely increased the sensitivity of Lake Basotu to climatic fluctuations.

  1. Some results applying flicker-noise spectroscopy on climate variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casanovas, Alexandre; Gomez, Vicent

    2000-02-01

    Several quality data sets of different climate variables have been analyzed by Timashev's flicker-noise spectroscopy (FNS) methods. The data include Mauna Loa and Barrow ozone concentration, GISP2 and GRIP ice core temperature proxies, Great Salt Lake volume, down-welling longwave irradiation and atmospheric clearness index. The data cover very different time scales ranging from few years to ice-ages. All of them show a coloured spectrum with a negative power f-n dependence on frequency, characteristic of correlations that die out in time and are therefore suitable for applying FNS methods. Results indicate that FNS methods are promising for analysing climate data and that these methods can give more insight into the implied phenomena, if the time series fulfill certain requisites of length and quality. Since the parameters obtained are phenomenological in nature, additional work should be done to connect the phenomenological parameters with model physical parameters.

  2. From precipitation to runoff: Climatic controls on discharge variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, M. W.; Whipple, K. X.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    exponential distribution), discharge is often described as a heavy-tailed process (i.e. a power law distribution). Choosing among these two different climate forcings has significant implications for fluvial incision models where only events exceeding a threshold do geomorphic work. While many precipitation records do exhibit approximately exponential distributions, many are better described by more variable stretched exponential distributions with best fit exponents ranging from ~0.5 (heavy-tailed) to ~1.0 (exponential). Moreover, while many discharge records plausibly exhibit power-law behavior, many do not (~70%). By identifying correlations between the stretched exponential and power law exponents, we map the spatial distribution of climate variability in a way that better isolates regional patterns in the precipitation-runoff relationship. To this end, we present two detailed climate transects that exemplify relationships between mean annual runoff and discharge variability, and their relation to rainfall, aridity, and other climate variables. We also present new strategies that make fuller use of hydro-meteorological observations when testing other explanations for the non-linear transformation from precipitation to runoff including the role of the soil water balance (2) and the spatial organization of channel networks (3).

  3. Information transfer across the scales of climate data variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hartman, David; Hlinka, Jaroslav

    2015-04-01

    Multitude of scales characteristic of the climate system variability requires innovative approaches in analysis of instrumental time series. We present a methodology which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited band-with, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. In particular, an information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality is applied together with surrogate data testing methods [1]. The method [2] uncovers causal influence (in the Granger sense) and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of daily mean surface air temperature from various European locations an information transfer from larger to smaller scales has been observed as the influence of the phase of slow oscillatory phenomena with periods around 7-8 years on amplitudes of the variability characterized by smaller temporal scales from a few months to annual and quasi-biennial scales [3]. In sea surface temperature data from the tropical Pacific area an influence of quasi-oscillatory phenomena with periods around 4-6 years on the variability on and near the annual scale has been observed. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [2] M. Palus, Entropy 16(10), 5263-5289 (2014) [3] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 078702 (2014)

  4. Niche dynamics in space and time.

    PubMed

    Pearman, Peter B; Guisan, Antoine; Broennimann, Olivier; Randin, Christophe F

    2008-03-01

    Niche conservatism, the tendency of a species niche to remain unchanged over time, is often assumed when discussing, explaining or predicting biogeographical patterns. Unfortunately, there has been no basis for predicting niche dynamics over relevant timescales, from tens to a few hundreds of years. The recent application of species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogenetic methods to analysis of niche characteristics has provided insight to niche dynamics. Niche shifts and conservatism have both occurred within the last 100 years, with recent speciation events, and deep within clades of species. There is increasing evidence that coordinated application of these methods can help to identify species which likely fulfill one key assumption in the predictive application of SDMs: an unchanging niche. This will improve confidence in SDM-based predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions and biodiversity. PMID:18289716

  5. Adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability: a comparative study between seven contrasting river basins.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Droogers, P.

    2003-04-01

    Climate change and climate variability is and will have a tremendous impact on hydrology and consequently on food security and environmental protection. From the four major components in climate change and climate variability studies, projection, mitigation, impact and adaptation, has the latter so far received less attention than the other three. An international collaboration of ten institutions is comparing adaptation strategies between contrasting basins ranging from wet to dry and from poor to rich. Basins included are: Mekong, Walawe (Sri Lanka), Rhine, Sacramento, Syr Darya, Volta, and Zayandeh (Iran). Simulation models at basin and field scale have been set up and possible adaptation strategies are explored by these models. Preliminary results indicate that appropriate adaptation strategies are different between these seven contrasting basins. It is also clear that these adaptation strategies should focus on increased variability rather than on the overall change of the mean. The focus was hereby not only on an increase in variation but especially on the number of successive dry and wet years. Results show that the studies on these adaptation strategies could not be performed only at one scale, but that a combination of field scale as well as basin scale analysis is essential.

  6. North Pacific climate variability and Arctic sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linkin, Megan E.

    Boreal winter North Pacific climate variability strongly influences North American hydroclimate and Arctic sea ice distribution in the marginal Arctic seas. Two modes of atmospheric variability explaining 53% of the variance in the Pacific Ocean sea level pressure (SLP) field are extracted and identified: the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection and the North Pacific Oscillation/West Pacific (NPO/WP) teleconnection. The NPO/WP, a dipole in North Pacific SLP and geopotential heights, is affiliated with latitudinal displacements of the Asian Pacific jet and an intensification of the Pacific stormtrack. The North American hydroclimate impacts of the NPO/WP are substantial; its impact on Alaska, Pacific Northwest and Great Plains precipitation is more influential than both the PNA and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NPO/WP is also strongly associated with a contemporaneous extension of the marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the western Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk and MIZ retreat in the eastern Bering Sea. Wintertime climate variability also significantly impacts the distribution of Arctic sea ice during the subsequent summer months, due to the hysteretic nature of the ice cap. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is known for its effects on summer sea ice distribution; this study extends into the Pacific and finds that circulation anomalies related to Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability also strongly impact summer Arctic sea ice. The NAO and ENSO are related to sea ice decline in the Eastern Siberian Sea, where the linear trend since 1979 is 25% per decade. PDV affects sea ice in the eastern Arctic, a region which displays no linear trend since 1979. The low frequency of PDV variability and the persistent positive NAO during the 1980s and 1990s results in natural variability being aliased into the total linear trend in summer sea ice calculated from satellite-based sea ice concentration. Since 1979, natural variability accounts for 30% of

  7. Ernst Julius Öpik, Solar Variability and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sterken, C.

    This paper covers some aspects of the life and work of the Estonian astronomer Ernst Öpik (1893--1985), who contributed to a very wide range of astronomical disciplines, and whose publications span more than 70 years. He worked in Estonia, the Soviet Union, the United States, Germany and Northern Ireland. His visions on the role of solar variability in global climate change are emphasized, and his opinions on modelling in science are explained, in addition to his views about scientific refereeing and publishing.

  8. Nao/ao Variability In The Coupled Bergen Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorteberg, A.; Furevik, T.; Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Kvamsto, N. G.; Thorstensen-Kindem, I.

    A new fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model, known as the Bergen Climate Model (BCM), has been developed. The coupled model can be run with stretched co- ordinates both in the atmosphere and ocean and consists of the atmospheric model ARPEGE/IFS, and a global version of the isopycnal ocean model MICOM, including a sea ice model. The atmospheric model ARPEGE/IFS (c22) is a spectral model devel- oped jointly by Meteo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ocean circulation model is the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MI- COM). Several modifications have been done to the MICOM model including the incorporation of a thermodynamic and dynamic sea ice model, the use of tempera- ture as a prognostic variable instead of salinity, and the use of a metric scale factor in both lateral, so the model can easily be configured on a general orthogonal grid. Also,the thickness diffusion has been modified to better handle diffusion near bottom topography and the base of the mixed layer. Coupling has been done with the library OASIS where 14 different fields are ex- changed using Montecarlo mapping and subgrid interpolation. Continental runoff into the correct rivers and discharge into the correct ocean grid cells are performed using the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) data set. Results will be present from a 300 years flux adjusted control integration of BCM with todays climate, using a unstretched T63 truncation in the atmosphere and a 0.8 by 2.4 degree resolution (near the equator gradually transforming to approximate square grid cells towards the poles) in the ocean. The model output has been analysed for large scale variability in both the ocean and atmosphere, with emphasise on the North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Statistical properties of the NAO/AO signal, and its im- pacts on the climate components, are identified and compared with observations. The NAO/AO mode of variability show up in the model with

  9. Climate variability as observed by the Nimbus-7 ERB

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ardanuy, P. E.; Kyle, H. L.

    1986-01-01

    Limits to the accuracy of the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) data being obtained by the Nimbus-7 satellite are discussed with emphasis on the implications for the measured variabilities in the global climate. Error analyses are performed for both wide and narrow field of view instruments and the success of in-flight calibration efforts is noted. Alterations in the ERB due to the eruptions of El Chichon in 1982 and the 1982-1983 ENSO event are summarized, particularly the teleconnections which were observed during ENSO.

  10. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China.

    PubMed

    Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets. PMID:26796698

  11. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

  12. Decadal climatic variability and regional weather simulation: stochastic nature of forest fuel moisture and climatic forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsinko, Y.; Johnson, E. A.; Martin, Y. E.

    2014-12-01

    Natural range of variability of forest fire frequency is of great interest due to the current changing climate and seeming increase in the number of fires. The variability of the annual area burned in Canada has not been stable in the 20th century. Recently, these changes have been linked to large scale climate cycles, such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The positive phase of the PDO was associated with the increased probability of hot dry spells leading to drier fuels and increased area burned. However, so far only one historical timeline was used to assess correlations between the natural climate oscillations and forest fire frequency. To counteract similar problems, weather generators are extensively used in hydrological and agricultural modeling to extend short instrumental record and to synthesize long sequences of daily weather parameters that are different from but statistically similar to historical weather. In the current study synthetic weather models were used to assess effects of alternative weather timelines on fuel moisture in Canada by using Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index moisture codes and potential fire frequency. The variability of fuel moisture codes was found to increase with the increased length of simulated series, thus indicating that the natural range of variability of forest fire frequency may be larger than that calculated from available short records. It may be viewed as a manifestation of a Hurst effect. Since PDO phases are thought to be caused by diverse mechanisms including overturning oceanic circulation, some of the lower frequency signals may be attributed to the long term memory of the oceanic system. Thus, care must be taken when assessing natural variability of climate dependent processes without accounting for potential long-term mechanisms.

  13. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

  14. History and heroes: the thermal niche of fishes and long-term lake ice dynamics.

    PubMed

    Magnuson, J J

    2010-11-01

    These perspectives on climate change come largely from two views, i.e. that of a fish and fisheries ecologist with an autecological interest and that of a limnologist interested in long-term dynamics and change. Ideas about the thermal niche evolved from the late F. E. J. Fry's (University of Toronto) paradigm of fish response to environmental factors and the late G. Evelyn Hutchinson's (Yale University) formalization of the niche concept. In contrast, ideas about climatic change and variability have been shaped by long-term observation records from lakes around the northern hemisphere. The history of each set of ideas, i.e. the thermal niche of fishes and learning from nature's long-term dynamics, is briefly reviewed in the context of climatic change. PMID:21078087

  15. Potential vorticity intrusion index and climate variability of surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, M.

    2003-04-01

    This paper proposes a potential vorticity intrusion index (denoted as PVI) as an alternative diagnostic tool to study the observed climate variability/trend of the surface temperature. The PVI index is defined as the percentage area of upper lever PV intrusion in the extratropics at any given time. Abundance (shortage) of extreme cold surface air temperature episodes in high latitudes coincides with a high (low) PVI index. The interannual variability of the PVI index exhibits a strong QBO- like signal. The high (low) PVI index prevails when the equatorial zonal mean zonal wind at 50 hPa is easterly (westerly). The probability distribution map of PV intrusion activities shows a shift of the preferred regions of frontogenesis from the oceans to the continents when the PVI index is high. This explains directly why more extreme cold events are observed over the northern Eurasian and Northern America continents when the PVI index is high or the QBO is in the easterly phase.

  16. Potential vorticity intrusion index and climate variability of surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Ming

    2003-02-01

    This paper proposes a potential vorticity intrusion index (denoted as PVI) as an alternative diagnostic tool to study the observed climate variability/trend of the surface temperature. The PVI index measures the percentage area of upper lever PV intrusion in the extratropics at any given time. More (fewer) outbreaks of extreme cold surface air temperature in high latitudes take place when the PVI index is high (low). The interannual variability of the PVI index exhibits a strong QBO- like signal. The high (low) PVI index prevails when the equatorial zonal mean zonal wind at 50 hPa is easterly (westerly). The probability distribution map of PV intrusion activities shows a shift of the preferred regions of frontogenesis from the oceans to the continents when the PVI index is high. This explains directly why more extreme cold events are observed over the northern Eurasian and Northern America continents when the PVI index is high, or the QBO is in the easterly phase.

  17. On the role of climate variability on tropospheric ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, M.

    2014-12-01

    The response of tropospheric ozone to changing atmospheric circulation is poorly understood owing to a lack of reliable long-term observations. There is great current interest in quantifying the extent to which observed ozone trends over recent decades at northern mid-latitude sites are driven by changes in precursor emissions versus shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. In this talk, I present a detailed analysis of the impact of interannual to decadal climate variability on tropospheric ozone, based on observations and a suite of chemistry-climate model hindcast simulations. Decadal shifts in circulation regimes modulate long-range transport of Asian pollution, leading to very different seasonal ozone trends at Mauna Loa Observatory in the subtropical Pacific Ocean. During autumn, the flow of ozone-rich air from Eurasia towards Hawaii strengthened in the mid-1990s onwards, as a result of the positive phase of the Pacific North American pattern, increasing ozone at Mauna Loa. During spring, weakening airflow from Asia in the 2000s, tied to La-Niña-like decadal cooling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, offsets ozone increases at Mauna Loa that otherwise would have occurred due to rising Asian emissions. The circulation-driven variability in Asian pollution over the subtropical North Pacific regions manifests mainly as changes in the mean as opposed to in transport events. At high-elevation Western U.S. sites, intrusions of stratospheric ozone deep into the troposphere during spring exert a greater influence than Asian pollution, particularly on the high tail of observed surface ozone distribution. We show that year-to-year variability in springtime high-ozone episodes measured in Western U.S. surface air is tied to known modes of climate variability, which modulate meanders in the polar frontal jet conducive to deep stratospheric ozone intrusions. Specifically, the La Niña-related increase in the frequency of deep stratospheric intrusion events plays a

  18. Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.

    2006-01-01

    Principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) are used to identify the primary modes of decadal and multidecadal variability in annual global Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values and sea-surface temperature (SSTs). The PDSI and SST data for 1925-2003 were detrended and smoothed (with a 10-year moving average) to isolate the decadal and multidecadal variability. The first two principal components (PCs) of the PDSI PCA explained almost 38% of the decadal and multidecadal variance in the detrended and smoothed global annual PDSI data. The first two PCs of detrended and smoothed global annual SSTs explained nearly 56% of the decadal variability in global SSTs. The PDSI PCs and the SST PCs are directly correlated in a pairwise fashion. The first PDSI and SST PCs reflect variability of the detrended and smoothed annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as detrended and smoothed annual Indian Ocean SSTs. The second set of PCs is strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The SVD analysis of the cross-covariance of the PDSI and SST data confirmed the close link between the PDSI and SST modes of decadal and multidecadal variation and provided a verification of the PCA results. These findings indicate that the major modes of multidecadal variations in SSTs and land-surface climate conditions are highly interrelated through a small number of spatially complex but slowly varying teleconnections. Therefore, these relations may be adaptable to providing improved baseline conditions for seasonal climate forecasting. Published in 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Decadal-Interdecadal SST Variability and Regional Climate Teleconnections

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Weng, H.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Dominant modes of decadal and interdecadal SST variability and their impacts on summertime rainfall variability over East Asia and the North America are studied. Two dominant modes of interdecadal SST variability, one associated with El Nino-like warming in the global oceans and one with an east-west seesaw variation in the equatorial Pacific have been identified. The first mode is associated in part with a long-term warming trend in the topical oceans and cooling over the northern Pacific. The second mode suggests an westward shift and strengthening of the Walker circulation from 1960s to the 1980s. Over East Asian, the first SST mode is correlated with reduced rainfall in northern China and excessive rainfall in central China. This SST mode is also associated with the tendency for increased rainfall over the midwest region, and reduced rainfall over the east Coast of the US. The results suggest a teleconnection pattern which links the occurrences of drought and floods over the Asian monsoon and the US summertime time climate. This teleconnection is likely to be associated with decadal variability of the East Asian jetstream, which are affected by strong land surface heating over the Siberian region, as well as El Nino-like SST forcings. The occurrences of major droughts and floods in the East Asian and US continent in recent decades are discussed in light of the above teleconnection patterns.

  20. Changes in the variability of extreme climate events in Latvia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avotniece, Zanita; Lizuma, Lita; Briede, Agrita; Klavins, Maris

    2015-04-01

    Recent changes in the mean values of surface air temperature and precipitation have led to significant local changes in hazardous and extreme events in many parts of the world, including the Northern Europe and Latvia. The observed trends in the changes of such extreme climate events indicate that extremes associated with high temperatures and precipitation are becoming more frequent in Latvia, however not much is known about the changes in variability of these extreme events. This study investigated the long-term trends and variability of extreme temperature and precipitation events as defined by the ECA&D in 10 meteorological observation stations in Latvia over the period 1925-2012. In order to detect and study the changes in variability and anomalies of extreme events, a comparison of three different time scales was performed: 1931-1960, 1961-1990,1981-2010. The results of the analysis revealed steady changes in some extremes while others have experienced a significant change in variability in the most recent 30-year period. Due to the specifics in the spatial distribution of extreme events, the results show differences in the behaviour of extreme events over the country.

  1. Decadal variability of the Arctic Ocean in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Arctic climate is characterized by strong interannual to interannual/decadal variability involving interactions with the overlying atmosphere as well as exchanges with the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. By increasing the geographic area of contact as well as by changing the mean stratification and overturning circulation future reductions of sea ice cover offers the potential to enhance and alter these interactions. This study begins with a comparison of simulated and historical interannual/decadal variability in the Arctic Ocean, and the relative importance of local atmospheric heating and ocean heat convergence, as they appear in a collection of CMIP5 model simulations. This analysis reveals that the models can be classified into two groups depending on their responses. Then we examine the changes in this variability over the coming centuries as simulated by the models, which reveal dramatic changes to the strength and frequency of the variability as the sea ice retreats. The connections to interannual/decadal variations of the overturning circulation and to atmospheric weather patterns will be discussed.

  2. Interannual climate variability seen in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brierley, C. M.

    2014-09-01

    Following proxy observations of weakened temperature gradients along the Equator in the early Pliocene, there has been much speculation about Pliocene climate variability. A major advance for our knowledge about the later Pliocene has been the coordination of modelling efforts through the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here the changes in interannual modes of sea surface temperature variability will be presented across PlioMIP. Previously model ensembles have shown little consensus in the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to imposed forcings - either for the past or future. The PlioMIP ensemble, however, shows surprising agreement with eight models simulating reduced variability and only one model indicating no change. The Pliocene's robustly weaker ENSO also saw a shift to lower frequencies. Model ensembles focussed at a wide variety of forcing scenarios have not yet shown this level of coherency. Nonetheless the PlioMIP ensemble does not show a robust response of either ENSO flavour or sea surface temperature variability in the Tropical Indian and North Pacific Oceans. Existing suggestions of ENSO properties linked to changes in zonal temperature gradient, seasonal cycle and the elevation of the Andes Mountains are investigated, yet prove insufficient to explain the coherent response. The reason for this surprisingly coherent signal warrants further investigation.

  3. Interannual climate variability seen in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brierley, C. M.

    2015-03-01

    Following reconstructions suggesting weakened temperature gradients along the Equator in the early Pliocene, there has been much speculation about Pliocene climate variability. A major advance for our knowledge about the later Pliocene has been the coordination of modelling efforts through the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here the changes in interannual modes of sea surface temperature variability will be presented across PlioMIP. Previously, model ensembles have shown little consensus in the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to imposed forcings - either for the past or future. The PlioMIP ensemble, however, shows surprising agreement, with eight models simulating reduced variability and only one model indicating no change. The Pliocene's robustly weaker ENSO also saw a shift to lower frequencies. Model ensembles focussed on a wide variety of forcing scenarios have not yet shown this level of coherency. Nonetheless, the PlioMIP ensemble does not show a robust response of either ENSO flavour or sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Indian and North Pacific oceans. Existing suggestions linking ENSO properties to to changes in zonal temperature gradient, seasonal cycle and the elevation of the Andes Mountains are investigated, yet prove insufficient to explain the consistent response. The reason for this surprisingly coherent signal warrants further investigation.

  4. Surface Radiation Budget Variability at Climatic Time Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinker, R. T.; Ma, Y.; Nussbaumer, E.

    2014-12-01

    Information on Earth Radiation Balance is needed at climatic time scales for enabling assessment of variability and trends in the forcing functions of the climate system. Satellite observations have been instrumental for advancing the understanding of such balance at global scale; yet, the length of available records does not meet climatic needs. Major issues hindering such efforts are related to the frequent changes in satellite observing systems, including the specification of the satellite instruments, and changes in the quality of atmospheric inputs that drive the inference schemes. In this paper we report on an effort to synthesize estimates of shortwave, longwave and spectral surface radiative fluxes by fusing observations from numerous satellite platforms that include MODIS observations. This information was obtained in the framework of the MEaSURES and NEWS programs; it will be evaluated against ground observations and compared to independent satellite and model estimates. Attention will be given to updates on our knowledge on the radiative balance as compared to what is known from shorter time records.

  5. Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Landrum, L.; Conley, A.; Lawrence, P.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Teng, H.

    2011-12-01

    The Last Millennium simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) reproduces many large-scaled climate patterns suggested by historical and proxy-data records including cooling from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age, a "hockey-stick" pattern of surface temperature changes from 850-2005, and a broad cooling with a delayed La Niña-type of pattern in the tropical Pacific response to large volcanic events. Atmospheric modes, one oceanic mode (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), and one ocean-atmosphere coupled mode (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) of variability show little or no change in their variances, teleconnection patterns and spectra between the Last Millennium simulation and the 1850 non-transient control run. Two oceanic modes, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation have higher variances and increased power at low frequencies in the Last Millennium simulation compared with the control run, suggesting long-term oceanic response to natural solar and volcanic forcings.

  6. A speleothem record of Holocene climate variability from southwestern Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernal, Juan Pablo; Lachniet, Matthew; McCulloch, Malcolm; Mortimer, Graham; Morales, Pedro; Cienfuegos, Edith

    2011-01-01

    A paleoclimate reconstruction for the Holocene based upon variations of δ 18O in a U-Th dated stalagmite from southwestern Mexico is presented. Our results indicate that the arrival of moisture to the area has been strongly linked to the input of glacial meltwaters into the North Atlantic throughout the Holocene. The record also suggests a complex interplay between Caribbean and Pacific moisture sources, modulated by the North Atlantic SST and the position of the ITCZ, where Pacific moisture becomes increasingly more influential through ENSO since ~ 4.3 ka. The interruption of stalagmite growth during the largest climatic anomalies of the Holocene (10.3 and 8.2 ka) is evidenced by the presence of hiatuses, which suggest a severe disruption in the arrival of moisture to the area. The δ 18O record presented here has important implications for understanding the evolution of the North American Monsoon and climate in southwestern Mexico, as it represents one of the most detailed archives of climate variability for the area spanning most of the Holocene.

  7. Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balascio, N. L.; D'Andrea, W. J.; Bradley, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    Small glaciers and ice caps respond rapidly to climate variations, and records of their past extent provide information on the natural envelope of past climate variability. Millennial-scale trends in Holocene glacier size are well documented and correspond with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. However, there is only sparse and fragmentary evidence for higher-frequency variations in glacier size because in many Northern Hemisphere regions glacier advances of the past few hundred years were the most extensive and destroyed the geomorphic evidence of ice growth and retreat during the past several thousand years. Thus, most glacier records have been of limited use for investigating centennial-scale climate forcing and feedback mechanisms. Here we report a continuous record of glacier activity for the last 9.5 ka from southeast Greenland derived from high-resolution measurements on a proglacial lake sediment sequence. Physical and geochemical parameters show that the glaciers responded to previously documented Northern Hemisphere climatic excursions, including the "8.2 ka" cooling event, the Holocene Thermal Maximum, Neoglacial cooling, and 20th century warming. In addition, the sediments indicate centennial-scale oscillations in glacier size during the late Holocene. Beginning at 4.1 ka, a series of abrupt glacier advances occurred, each lasting ~100 years and followed by a period of retreat, that were superimposed on a gradual trend toward larger glacier size. Thus, while declining summer insolation caused long-term cooling and glacier expansion during the late Holocene, climate system dynamics resulted in repeated episodes of glacier expansion and retreat on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. These episodes coincided with ice rafting events in the North Atlantic Ocean and periods of regional ice cap expansion, which confirms their regional significance and indicates that considerable glacier activity on these timescales is a normal feature of

  8. Climate variability and wildfire risk and occurrence in northern Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia Codron, J. C.; Rasilla, D.; Diego, C.; Carracedo, V.

    2009-04-01

    In spite of their reputation of wetness, wildfires are a frequent event in Cantabria (Northern Spain), but their seasonality does not match the typical warm season maximum generalized in most of the Iberian Peninsula. They occur at the end of the winter and the beginning of the spring (January to March), being mostly anthropogenically triggered due to the necessity of preparing pastures in the uplands. However, catastrophic episodes of generalized burning are controlled by different atmospheric mechanisms, namely the occurrence of "Suradas", a downslope windstorms which combines high winds speeds and low humidities, and long periods of drought in late fall and winter. This contribution analyzes long term trends (1961 onwards) of several climatic variables during the highest wildfire risk period in order to assess to what extent the occurrence of wildfires may be linked to the recent climatic variability. Raw meteorological values of temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation are transformed into a well-known meteorological fire weather index, the Canadian Forest Fire Index (FWI). Besides, monthly values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index we used to assess the spatial and temporal magnitude and intensity of droughts. Our results show that the regional climate has become warmer and drier, due to the combined effects of increases in temperatures, sunshine duration, and the decrease in relative humidity and precipitation, variables that are likely to play an important role in drought. Unknown in the 60s, 70s and most of the 80s, drought has become a relatively frequent phenomenon during the last two decades, and, in fact, the two most extreme episodes of drought at century scale, during 1989-1990 and 1993, occur in the 90. However, both the frequency and the intensity of "Suradas" have reduced, and consequently, the high fire risk episodes are now less frequent, but their absolute maximum values remain unchanged. Those regional climate trends are strongly

  9. Research issues in determining the effects of changing climate variability on crop yields

    SciTech Connect

    Mearns, L.O.

    1995-12-31

    The authors discusses three aspects of research necessary for investigating possible effects of changes in climatic variability on crop yields. Additional information on changed variability effects is needed to further elucidate uncertainties in the knowledge of possible impacts of climate change on agriculture. First, sensitivity analyses of crop responses to shifting change in variability must be performed. Second, investigations of how climatic variability may change under perturbed climate conditions should be undertaken. If one has some confidence in estimates of how variability may change, then a third research task is the formation of climate change scenarios that incorporate changes in climatic variability and their application to crop-climate models to determine crop responses. In this chapter, these research tasks are discussed regarding one climate variable, precipitation. The authors summarize two research projects that have been undertaken to investigate the sensitivity of the CERES-wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop model to changes in climatic variability, on daily to annual time scales, for sites in the central Great Plains. He also provides an example of determining possible changes in daily variability of precipitation through analysis of results from two regional climate model experiments, and then go on to describe an example of forming a climate change scenario that incorporates changes in daily precipitation variability estimated from the regional model runs. 27 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Evidence of niche shift and global invasion potential of the Tawny Crazy ant, Nylanderia fulva.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Sunil; LeBrun, Edward G; Stohlgren, Thomas J; Stabach, Jared A; McDonald, Danny L; Oi, David H; LaPolla, John S

    2015-10-01

    Analysis of an invasive species' niche shift between native and introduced ranges, along with potential distribution maps, can provide valuable information about its invasive potential. The tawny crazy ant, Nylanderia fulva, is a rapidly emerging and economically important invasive species in the southern United States. It is originally from east-central South America and has also invaded Colombia and the Caribbean Islands. Our objectives were to generate a global potential distribution map for N. fulva, identify important climatic drivers associated with its current distribution, and test whether N. fulva's realized climatic niche has shifted across its invasive range. We used MaxEnt niche model to map the potential distribution of N. fulva using its native and invaded range occurrences and climatic variables. We used principal component analysis methods for investigating potential shifts in the realized climatic niche of N. fulva during invasion. We found strong evidence for a shift in the realized climatic niche of N. fulva across its invasive range. Our models predicted potentially suitable habitat for N. fulva in the United States and other parts of the world. Our analyses suggest that the majority of observed occurrences of N. fulva in the United States represent stabilizing populations. Mean diurnal range in temperature, degree days at ≥10°C, and precipitation of driest quarter were the most important variables associated with N. fulva distribution. The climatic niche expansion demonstrated in our study may suggest significant plasticity in the ability of N. fulva to survive in areas with diverse temperature ranges shown by its tolerance for environmental conditions in the southern United States, Caribbean Islands, and Colombia. The risk maps produced in this study can be useful in preventing N. fulva's future spread, and in managing and monitoring currently infested areas. PMID:26668728

  11. Profound Climatic Effects on Two East Asian Black-Throated Tits (Ave: Aegithalidae), Revealed by Ecological Niche Models and Phylogeographic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Wenjuan; Lin, Congtian; Gao, Bin; Yang, Xiaojun; Zhang, Zhengwang; Lei, Fumin

    2011-01-01

    Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of geological and climatic changes on species distributions in East Asian, we still have limited knowledge of how these changes have impacted avian species in south-western and southern China. Here, we aim to study paleo-climatic effects on an East Asian bird, two subspecies of black-throated tit (A. c. talifuensis–concinnus) with the combined analysis of phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 32 populations (203 individuals) and used phylogenetic inferences to reconstruct the intra-specific relationships among haplotypes. Population genetic analyses were undertaken to gain insight into the demographic history of these populations. We used ENMs to predict the distribution of target species during three periods; last inter-glacial (LIG), last glacial maximum (LGM) and present. We found three highly supported, monophyletic MtDNA lineages and different historical demography among lineages in A. c. talifuensis–concinnus. These lineages formed a narrowly circumscribed intra-specific contact zone. The estimated times of lineage divergences were about 2.4 Ma and 0.32 Ma respectively. ENMs predictions were similar between present and LGM but substantially reduced during LIG. ENMs reconstructions and molecular dating suggest that Pleistocene climate changes had triggered and shaped the genetic structure of black-throated tit. Interestingly, in contrast to profound impacts of other glacial cycles, ENMs and phylogeographic analysis suggest that LGM had limited effect on these two subspecies. ENMs also suggest that Pleistocene climatic oscillations enabled the formation of the contact zone and thus support the refuge theory. PMID:22195047

  12. Comparison of glacial periods reveals systematic cold climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauch, Henning

    2013-04-01

    On a global scale, major variations in Pleistocene temperatures correlate well with glacial-interglacial changes of northern hemisphere ice sheet sizes. While a discharge of icebergs from the ice sheets surrounding the polar North Atlantic region directly reflects the rates of growth and decay of the ice sheet margins at sea level, it is also the result of a rapidly changing climate which affected both the meridional overturning in the ocean and the pattern in ocean-atmosphere circulation. Ice cores and many deep-sea sediment records from this region have demonstrated such complex interrelations between these main environmental processes for the last glaciation (Weichselian). In ice cores, the millennial-scale climate variabilities of the Weichselian are recognized in both hemispheres, albeit with apparently a significant time lag between the southern and northern pole regions. Comparing records of iceberg discharge from the polar and subpolar North Atlantic now reveals a very similar millennial-scale variability between the Weichselian and the penultimate glaciation (Saalian) during which warmer, interstadial times alternated with rather cold polar conditions. Because cold conditions in the polar North were also time-coeval with enhanced aridity and atmospheric dust content (e.g. at least over northern Africa due to changes in the monsoon system), the glacial dust records of Antarctica, which extend back in time much farther than Greenland ice records, could be used to also make an interhemispheric climate comparison. For the last two glaciations such a comparison would indeed indicate a strong linkage between iceberg discharge events in the polar North and increased dust content in the atmosphere.

  13. Saharan dust, climate variability, and asthma in Grenada, the Caribbean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akpinar-Elci, Muge; Martin, Francis E.; Behr, Joshua G.; Diaz, Rafael

    2015-11-01

    Saharan dust is transported across the Atlantic and interacts with the Caribbean seasonal climatic conditions, becoming respirable and contributing to asthma presentments at the emergency department. This study investigated the relationships among dust, climatic variables, and asthma-related visits to the emergency room in Grenada. All asthma visits to the emergency room ( n = 4411) over 5 years (2001-2005) were compared to the dust cover and climatic variables for the corresponding period. Variation in asthma was associated with change in dust concentration ( R 2 = 0.036, p < 0.001), asthma was positively correlated with rainfall ( R 2 = 0.055, p < 0.001), and rainfall was correlated with dust ( R 2 = 0.070, p = 0.003). Despite the similarities and the short distance between Trinidad, Barbados, and Grenada, they have markedly different geographies, cultures, population sizes, industrialization level, and economies. Therefore, different than from the studies in Trinidad and Barbados, Grenada is a non-industrialized low-income small island without major industrialized air pollution addition; asthma visits were inversely related to mean sea level pressure ( R 2 = 0.123, p = 0.006) and positively correlated with relative humidity ( R 2 = 0.593, p = 0.85). Saharan dust in conjunction with seasonal humidity allows for inhalable particulate matter that exacerbates asthma among residents in the Caribbean island of Grenada. These findings contribute evidence suggesting a broader public health impact from Saharan dust. Thus, this research may inform strategic planning of resource allocation among the Caribbean public health agencies.

  14. Precipitation variability and the sugarcane climate demand in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, V. R.; de Avila, A. M. H.; Blain, G.; Zullo, J., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    This study presents the precipitation variability in São Paulo state/Brazil considering the climate demand for high sugarcane productivity. The Brazilian sugarcane and the bioethanol chain are facing an increase demand in response of the biofuel industry expansion. The productivity improvement is the key point to face the challenges about the land expansion in the Brazilian agriculture. The sugarcane phenology is climate dependent even being efficient in the decarboxylation process. The sprouting, growing, yield and the sugar content are determined by the climate. The accumulated rainy days during the pre harvest or more than 180 days of dry period can reduce the sugar content during the maturation process. Daily rainfall time series for the period 1960-2003 from 210 rain gauges at São Paulo state - the major Brazilian producer - are used. We subset the time series in the annual, seasonal, ten-day totals and dry and wet spells analysis. We used the mann- kendall non-parametric test to calculate the trends. The annual, the seasonal totals and the dry and wet spells did not showed a significant change in time. However, the ten-day total analysis in the beginning of the rainy season - i.e. in October - showed an interesting changing pattern - 24% of gauges showed a significant negative trend (p_value<0.1). These gauges are located in specific regions with the highest sugarcane production. Also, the October totals showed significant and negative trends (p_value<0.1) for more than 95% of precipitation gauges. These results are strongly indicating a longer dry season in the last twenty years. These changes in the precipitation variability can be related with the instability of the sugarcane market in Brazil in the last years.

  15. Saharan dust, climate variability, and asthma in Grenada, the Caribbean.

    PubMed

    Akpinar-Elci, Muge; Martin, Francis E; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael

    2015-11-01

    Saharan dust is transported across the Atlantic and interacts with the Caribbean seasonal climatic conditions, becoming respirable and contributing to asthma presentments at the emergency department. This study investigated the relationships among dust, climatic variables, and asthma-related visits to the emergency room in Grenada. All asthma visits to the emergency room (n = 4411) over 5 years (2001-2005) were compared to the dust cover and climatic variables for the corresponding period. Variation in asthma was associated with change in dust concentration (R(2) = 0.036, p < 0.001), asthma was positively correlated with rainfall (R(2) = 0.055, p < 0.001), and rainfall was correlated with dust (R(2) = 0.070, p = 0.003). Despite the similarities and the short distance between Trinidad, Barbados, and Grenada, they have markedly different geographies, cultures, population sizes, industrialization level, and economies. Therefore, different than from the studies in Trinidad and Barbados, Grenada is a non-industrialized low-income small island without major industrialized air pollution addition; asthma visits were inversely related to mean sea level pressure (R(2) = 0.123, p = 0.006) and positively correlated with relative humidity (R(2) = 0.593, p = 0.85). Saharan dust in conjunction with seasonal humidity allows for inhalable particulate matter that exacerbates asthma among residents in the Caribbean island of Grenada. These findings contribute evidence suggesting a broader public health impact from Saharan dust. Thus, this research may inform strategic planning of resource allocation among the Caribbean public health agencies. PMID:25707919

  16. Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephenson, Scott R.; Smith, Laurence C.

    2015-11-01

    Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to intermodel variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21st-century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011-2035) and mid-century (2036-2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

  17. Climate variability around the first Pliocene time slice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prescott, C.; Haywood, A.; Dolan, A. M.; Hunter, S. J.; Tindall, J.; Pope, J. O.; Pickering, S.

    2013-12-01

    and the mode of deep water formation and thus the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation over relatively short timescales (geologically). To place this predicted climate variability around MIS KM5c into context we have completed simulations 20 kyr either side of the 3.060 kyr PlioMAX peak, which is characterised by one of the lightest benthic oxygen isotope excursions evident in the entire PRISM time slab (Marine Isotope Stage K1; Raymo et al. 2004), and displays a radically different orbital forcing compared to present-day. The results show a 5°C change on global MAT, with some terrestrial areas showing changes of 10°C. Therefore, this larger climate variability at K1 would cause imperfect correlation to be much more harmful to data model comparisons than around the KM5c time slice. The results from this suite of simulations suggest that proxies producing MAT with imperfect correlation to the time slice up to 20,000 years before or after may still be representative of the conditions at the MIS KM5c time slice itself due to the subdued nature of orbital forcing at this time.

  18. On how climate variability influences regional sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Rietbroek, Roelof; Forootan, Ehsan

    2016-04-01

    Regional trends in sea level change are strongly influenced by climate variations, such as ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation), the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Hence, before computing long term regional sea level change, these sea level variations need to be taken into account as they lead to strong dependencies of computed regional sea level trends on the time period of the investigation. In this study, sea level change during the years 1993 to 2013 is analysed to identify the dominant modes of sea level change caused by climate variations. Here, two different gridded altimetry products are analysed, namely ESA's combined CCI SeaLevel v1.1 ECV product (doi: 10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2013-v_1.1-201412), and absolute dynamic topography produced by Ssalto/Duacs and distributed by Aviso, with support from Cnes (http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/duacs/). Reconstructions using the different decomposition techniques including the standard principle component analysis (PCA), rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) and independent component analysis (ICA) method are analysed. They are compared with sea level change modelled with the global finite-element sea-ice ocean model (FESOM). The results indicate that from the applied methods, ICA is most suitable to separate the individual climate variability signals in independent modes of sea level change. This especially holds for extracting the ENSO contribution in sea level changes, which was better separated by applying ICA, from both altimetry and modelled sea level products. In addition, it is presented how modelled sea level change reflects climate variations compared to that identified in the altimetry products.

  19. Seasonal climate variability in Medieval Europe (1000 to 1499)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfister, C.

    2009-04-01

    In his fundamental work on medieval climate Alexandre (1987) highlighted the significance of dealing with contemporary sources. Recently, long series of temperature indices for "summer" and "winter" were set up by Shabalova and van Engelen (2003) for the Low Countries, but the time resolution is not strictly seasonal. This paper worked out within the EU 6th Framework Project "Millennium" draws on critically reviewed documentary evidence from a spatially extensive area of Western and Central Europe (basically England, France, BENELUX, Western Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Hungary and todays Czech Republic. The narrative evidence is complemented with dendro-climatic series from the Alps (Büntgen et al. 2006). Each "climate observation" is georeferenced which allows producing spatial displays of the data for selected spaces and time-frames. The spatial distribution of the information charts can be used as a tool for the climatological verification of the underlying data. Reconstructions for winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) are presented in the form of time series and charts. Cold winters were frequent from 1205 to 1235 i.e. in the "Medieval Warm Period" and in the Little Ice Age (1306-1330; 1390-1470). Dry and warm summers prevailed in Western and Central Europe in the first half of the 13th century. During the Little Ice Age cold-wet summers (triggered by volcanic explosions in the tropics) were more frequent, though summer climate remained highly variable. Results are discussed with regard to the "Greenhouse Debate" and the relationship to glacier fluctuations in the Alps is explored. References -Alexandre, Pierre, 1987: Le Climat en Europe au Moyen Age. Contribution à l'histoire des variations climatiques de 1000 à 1425. Paris. -Büntgen, Ulf et al. 2006: Summer Temperature Variation in the European Alps, AD. 755-2004, J. of Climate 19 5606-5623. - Pfister, Christian et al. 1998: Winter air temperature variations in Central Europe during the Early and

  20. Enhanced temperature variability in high-altitude climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohmura, Atsumu

    2012-12-01

    In the present article, monthly mean temperature at 56 stations assembled in 18 regional groups in 10 major mountain ranges of the world were investigated. The periods of the analysis covered the last 50 to 110 years. The author found that the variability of temperature in climatic time scale tends to increase with altitude in about 65 % of the regional groups. A smaller number of groups, 20 %, showed the fastest change at an intermediate altitude between the peaks (or ridges) and their foot, while the remaining small number of sites, 15 %, showed the largest trends at the foot of mountains. This tendency provides a useful base for considering and planning the climate impact evaluations. The reason for the amplification of temperature variation at high altitudes is traced back to the increasing diabatic processes in the mid- and high troposphere as a result of the cloud condensation. This situation results from the fact that the radiation balance at the earth's surface is transformed more efficiently into latent heat of evaporation rather than sensible heat, the ratio between them being 4 to 1. Variation in the surface evaporation is converted into heat upon condensation into cloud particles and ice crystals in the mid- and high troposphere. Therefore, this is the altitude where the result of the surface radiation change is effectively transferred. Further, the low temperature of the environment amplifies the effect of the energy balance variation on the surface temperature, as a result of the functional shape of Stefan-Boltzmann law. These processes altogether contribute to enhancing temperature variability at high altitudes. The altitude play s an important role in determining the temperature variability, besides other important factors such as topography, surface characteristics, cryosphere/temperature feedback and the frequency and intensity of an inversion. These processes have a profound effect not only on the ecosystem but also on glaciers and permafrost.

  1. Interaction between soil moisture memory and different climate variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    A large number of modelling studies show a potential impact of the soil moisture state on regional climate on different time scales. Especially for short prediction periods, perturbations of the soil moisture state may result in significant alteration of surface temperature in the following season. The physical reasoning for such effects are usually attributed to the soil moisture - temperature as well as the soil moisture - precipitation feedbacks. We designed a model experiment to investigate the time scale until the effect of arbitrary soil moisture initialization is forgotten by the model. This time period is called soil moisture memory and computed for different seasons based on an ensemble of nine, 3 year long, simulations per season. These simulations are done using the coupled land-atmosphere model ECHAM6-JSBACH, which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Soil moisture memory was found to range between few days up to several months. While the longest memory often coincides with either snow-covered conditions or follows on monsoon periods, short memory is computed prior to snow-melt and rainy seasons. Additionally, the correlations between soil moisture memory and a number of surface variables was investigated. We found that the magnitude of the initial soil moisture perturbations explains at most 50% of the spatial variation in soil moisture memory while the remaining variance is associated with soil properties and - even stronger - with dynamical variables like surface temperature, evapotranspiration and runoff. This effect differs for different seasons and soil moisture regimes which demonstrates the complexity of soil moisture - climate interactions. Further analysis will be focused on the re-occurrence of soil moisture memory after periods of insignificant memory and the possibility of memory transfer between different land surface state variables.

  2. Morphological and niche divergence of pinyon pines.

    PubMed

    Ortiz-Medrano, Alejandra; Scantlebury, Daniel Patrick; Vázquez-Lobo, Alejandra; Mastretta-Yanes, Alicia; Piñero, Daniel

    2016-05-01

    The environmental variables that define a species ecological niche should be associated with the evolutionary patterns present in the adaptations that resulted from living in these conditions. Thus, when comparing across species, we can expect to find an association between phylogenetically independent phenotypic characters and ecological niche evolution. Few studies have evaluated how organismal phenotypes might mirror patterns of niche evolution if these phenotypes reflect adaptations. Doing so could contribute on the understanding of the origin and maintenance of phenotypic diversity observed in nature. Here, we show the pattern of niche evolution of the pinyon pine lineage (Pinus subsection Cembroides); then, we suggest morphological adaptations possibly related to niche divergence, and finally, we test for correlation between ecological niche and morphology. We demonstrate that niche divergence is the general pattern within the clade and that it is positively correlated with adaptation. PMID:27092235

  3. Streamflow projections for a Southwestern river: Climate change and climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutzler, D. S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate projections for flows in the upper Gila River in southwestern New Mexico are assessed. The State of New Mexico is currently considering proposals for new consumptive uses of water extracted from the Gila, pursuant to a recent interstate stream settlement. Among the factors being considered is the prospect of decreasing flow in this snow-fed river associated with projected 21st Century climate change. Southwestern North America already exhibits a sustained and pronounced trend toward warmer temperature. Policymakers requested a projection for the next several decades as input to their ongoing deliberations over new extractions from the river. For lead times of several decades the predictability derived from current climatic conditions, the source of most prediction skill for seasonal forecasts, is minimal. On the other hand, the magnitude of the signal of greenhouse-gas forced long-term climate change in streamflow, driven largely by temperature change, is modest compared to the large natural decadal variability of flow. The upper Gila is known to exhibit tremendous decadal variability, driven largely by precipitation, as seen in a century of instrumental gage data and from a much longer dendrochronological reconstruction of flow. We have compared dynamical projections of flow in the upper Gila generated by the Bureau of Reclamation's West-Wide Climate Risk Assessment, with a statistical projection derived from a regression of observed precipitation and temperature onto historical flows. The latter approach assumes statistical stationarity. We show that the stationarity assumption will be violated by mid-century but is defensible on the time scale of interest set by policymakers. These two approaches yield consistent projections of 5-10% average decline in flow on the upper Gila for the period 2021-2050, if -- and only if -- a long historical period is chosen to represent baseline "average" flow. An averaging period much longer than the 30 year "climate

  4. Spatial distribution of sand fly species (Psychodidae: Phlebtominae), ecological niche, and climatic regionalization in zoonotic foci of cutaneous leishmaniasis, southwest of Iran.

    PubMed

    Ebrahimi, Sahar; Bordbar, Ali; Rastaghi, Ahmad R Esmaeili; Parvizi, Parviz

    2016-06-01

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a complex vector-borne disease caused by Leishmania parasites that are transmitted by the bite of several species of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Monthly factor analysis of climatic variables indicated fundamental variables. Principal component-based regionalization was used for recognition of climatic zones using a clustering integrated method that identified five climatic zones based on factor analysis. To investigate spatial distribution of the sand fly species, the kriging method was used as an advanced geostatistical procedure in the ArcGIS modeling system that is beneficial to design measurement plans and to predict the transmission cycle in various regions of Khuzestan province, southwest of Iran. However, more than an 80% probability of P. papatasi was observed in rainy and temperate bio-climatic zones with a high potential of CL transmission. Finding P. sergenti revealed the probability of transmission and distribution patterns of a non-native vector of CL in related zones. These findings could be used as models indicating climatic zones and environmental variables connected to sand fly presence and vector distribution. Furthermore, this information is appropriate for future research efforts into the ecology of Phlebotomine sand flies and for the prevention of CL vector transmission as a public health priority. PMID:27232131

  5. A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

    PubMed Central

    Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

  6. Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S.; Kaplan, A.; Chen, D.

    2001-01-01

    The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

  7. Stochastic investigation of wind process for climatic variability identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deligiannis, Ilias; Tyrogiannis, Vassilis; Daskalou, Olympia; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Markonis, Yannis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2016-04-01

    The wind process is considered one of the hydrometeorological processes that generates and drives the climate dynamics. We use a dataset comprising hourly wind records to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale) for various time periods. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  8. Stochastic investigation of temperature process for climatic variability identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerias, Eleutherios; Kalamioti, Anna; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Markonis, Yannis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2016-04-01

    The temperature process is considered as the most characteristic hydrometeorological process and has been thoroughly examined in the climate-change framework. We use a dataset comprising hourly temperature and dew point records to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale) for various time periods. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  9. Nevada Monitoring System to Assess Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devitt, D. A.; Arnone, J.; Biondi, F.; Fenstermaker, L. F.; Saito, L.; Young, M.; Riddle, B.; Strachan, S. D.; Bird, B.; McCurdy, G.; Lyles, B. F.

    2010-12-01

    The Nevada System of Higher Education (University of Nevada Las Vegas, University of Nevada Reno and the Desert Research Institute) was awarded a multiyear NSF EPSCoR grant to support infrastructure associated with regional climate change research. The overall project is comprised of 5 components: education, cyberinfrastructure, policy, climate modeling and water/ecology. The water and ecology components are using their infrastructure funding for the assessment of climate variability and change on ecosystem function and hydrologic services. A series of 10 m tall towers are under construction and are being equipped with a wide array of sensors to monitor atmospheric, soil and plant parameters over time. The towers are located within the Mojave and Great Basin Deserts in two transects; the Mojave Desert transect is located in the southern Nevada Sheep Mountain Range and the Great Basin transect is located in the east central Nevada Snake Mountain Range. The towers are centrally positioned in well-defined vegetation zones. In southern Nevada these zones are represented by the following plant species: Creosote/Bursage (Creosotebush scrub zone); Blackbrush/Joshua Tree (Blackbrush zone); Pinyon/ Juniper (pygmy conifer zone), Ponderosa Pine (montane zone) and Bristlecone Pine (subalpine zone). The Snake Mountain transect incorporates the eastern and western valleys on both sides of the mountain range. The vegetation zones are represented by: Greasewood and mixed shrub (salt desert zone); Big Sage (sagebrush zone); Pinyon/Juniper (pygmy conifer zone); White/Douglas Fir, Ponderosa Pine and Aspen (montane zone); and Bristlecone/Limber Pine and Engelmann Spruce (subalpine zone). We are currently in the third year of funding with a goal of having the majority of towers fully operational by winter 2010. In close collaboration with our cyberinfrastructure component team, all data acquired from the transect monitoring stations will be made available to other researchers and the

  10. Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2011-01-01

    interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

  11. Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sari Kovats, R.; Edwards, Sally J.; Charron, Dominique; Cowden, John; D'Souza, Rennie M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gauci, Charmaine; Gerner-Smidt, Peter; Hajat, Shakoor; Hales, Simon; Hernández Pezzi, Gloria; Kriz, Bohumir; Kutsar, Kuulo; McKeown, Paul; Mellou, Kassiani; Menne, Bettina; O'Brien, Sarah; Pelt, Wilfrid; Schmid, Hans

    2005-03-01

    Campylobacter is among the most important agents of enteritis in developed countries. We have described the potential environmental determinants of the seasonal pattern of infection with campylobacter in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Specifically, we investigated the role of climate variability on laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacter infection from 15 populations. Regression analysis was used to quantify the associations between timing of seasonal peaks in infection in space and time. The short-term association between weekly weather and cases was also investigated using Poisson regression adapted for time series data. All countries in our study showed a distinct seasonality in campylobacter transmission, with many, but not all, populations showing a peak in spring. Countries with milder winters have peaks of infection earlier in the year. The timing of the peak of infection is weakly associated with high temperatures 3 months previously. Weekly variation in campylobacter infection in one region of the UK appeared to be little affected by short-term changes in weather patterns. The geographical variation in the timing of the seasonal peak suggests that climate may be a contributing factor to campylobacter transmission. The main driver of seasonality of campylobacter remains elusive and underscores the need to identify the major serotypes and routes of transmission for this disease.

  12. Assessment of human health vulnerability to climate variability and change in Cuba.

    PubMed

    Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

    2006-12-01

    In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. PMID:17185289

  13. Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

    PubMed Central

    Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

    2006-01-01

    In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. PMID:17185289

  14. Developing climate data records and essential climate variables from landsat data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dwyer, John; Dinardo, Thomas P.; Muchoney, Douglas M.

    2011-01-01

    The series of Landsat missions has compiled the longest record of satellite observation of the Earth’s land surface, extending for more than 38 years for most areas of the globe. Landsat data are particularly important as long term climate data records because the scale of observation is sufficient to differentiate between natural and human drivers of land cover change. The USGS has established consistent radiometric calibration across the Landsat TM and ETM+ sensors, and have extended the calibration back to the earlier MSS sensors. The USGS is developing capabilities to create fundamental climate data records (FCDRs), thematic climate data records (TCDRs), and essential climate variables (ECVs) from the Landsat data archive. Two high priority TCDRs were identified: surface reflectance and land surface temperature because they have direct application or are required as input to the generation of ECVs. We will focus development on a few of the terrestrial ECVs that have a high potential for being derived from Landsat data, that include land cover, albedo, fire disturbance, surface water, snow and ice, and leaf area index (LAI). We are collaborating with scientists who have demonstrated successful algorithm development and application of these science products to develop a framework of processing capabilities to support research projects and land management applications, along with an independent strategy for product validation. Our goal is to scale the creation and validation of these products from specific sites in the conterminous U.S. and Alaska, for extension to continental and global scales.

  15. Solar Variability and Climate Change in the Last 2000 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pang, K.; Yau, K.

    2002-12-01

    Studying past climatic data can help us better understand present natural variations and predict future trends. Identification of cycles can be useful to forecasting. However, various reconstructions of the climate of the last 1000 years have given only broad similarities, with large variances in time and space [Briffa JGR 106, 2929, 2001]. For example, during the Little Ice Age (ca. 1600-1800) severe winters were frequent in Europe and China, but not over Greenland [Sci. Amer., 2/1992, 21]. The differences in modeling results are partly due to uncertainties in the past radiative forcing [Mann, Eos 82 (46), 2001]. Another outstanding question is whether we are in a time similar to Medieval Warm Period. From the frequencies of sunspot and aurora sightings, abundance of carbon-14 in the rings of long-lived trees, and beryllium-10 in the annual layers of polar ice cores, we have reconstructed the recent history of a variable Sun. In the past 1800 years the Sun has gone through nine cycles of changes in brightness. While these long-term changes account for less than one percent of the total irradiance, there is a clear evidence that they affect the climate. During the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) few sunspots were seen--about 1 in 10 yr from China or Europe--indicative of a weak Sun. Eddy [Science 192, 1189, 1976] used historical aurora, C-14 and climate data to confirm its reality, and link it to the Little Ice Age. Using new historical sunspot catalogues [Yau, Quart. J. Roy. Astron. Soc., 29, 175, 1988], we have identified or confirmed earlier solar minima at 200-300, 400-500, 580-820, 980-1070, 1280-1350, 1410-1590; and maxima at 1080-1280, 1350-1400, etc. All these features are coincident with respective minima or maxima in the frequency of aurora sightings from Europe or Asia. Both time series are in turn consistent with radioisotope data [Pang, Eos. 9/2002]. Carbon-14 and beryllium-10 are made by cosmic rays high in the atmosphere. When the Sun is active the solar

  16. COMBINING CLIMATE MODEL PREDICTIONS, HYDROLOGICAL MODELING, AND ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING ALGORITHMS TO PREDICT THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC BIODIVERSITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The results of this research will provide a broad taxonomic and regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on aquatic species in the United States by producing predictions of current and future habitat quality for aquatic taxa based on multiple climate change scen...

  17. Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Saupe, E.E.; Hendricks, J.R.; Portell, R.W.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Haywood, A. M.; Hunter, S.J.; Lieberman, B.S.

    2014-01-01

    In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.

  18. Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years.

    PubMed

    Saupe, E E; Hendricks, J R; Portell, R W; Dowsett, H J; Haywood, A; Hunter, S J; Lieberman, B S

    2014-11-22

    In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks. PMID:25297868

  19. Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

    PubMed Central

    Saupe, E. E.; Hendricks, J. R.; Portell, R. W.; Dowsett, H. J.; Haywood, A.; Hunter, S. J.; Lieberman, B. S.

    2014-01-01

    In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks. PMID:25297868

  20. Climate Variability and Oceanographic Settings Associated with Interannual Variability in the Initiation of Dinophysis acuminata Blooms

    PubMed Central

    Díaz, Patricio A.; Reguera, Beatriz; Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel; Pazos, Yolanda; Velo-Suárez, Lourdes; Berger, Henrick; Sourisseau, Marc

    2013-01-01

    In 2012, there were exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in early spring in what appeared to be a mesoscale event affecting Western Iberia and the Bay of Biscay. The objective of this work was to identify common climatic patterns to explain the observed anomalies in two important aquaculture sites, the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain) and Arcachon Bay (SW France). Here, we examine climate variability through physical-biological couplings, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and time of initiation of the upwelling season and its intensity over several decades. In 2012, the mesoscale features common to the two sites were positive anomalies in SST and unusual wind patterns. These led to an atypical predominance of upwelling in winter in the Galician Rías, and increased haline stratification associated with a southward advection of the Gironde plume in Arcachon Bay. Both scenarios promoted an early phytoplankton growth season and increased stability that enhanced D. acuminata growth. Therefore, a common climate anomaly caused exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in two distant regions through different triggering mechanisms. These results increase our capability to predict intense diarrhetic shellfish poisoning outbreaks in the early spring from observations in the preceding winter. PMID:23959151

  1. Application of Infrared Hyperspectral Sounder Data to Climate Research: Interannual Variability and climate trend evaluation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aumann, H. H.; Gregorich, D. T.

    2007-12-01

    Satellite measurements of the spectrally resolved upwelling infrared radiances have a unique role in the observation of climate and climate change: They give direct insight into the way the Earth Climate System responds to periodic and long term changes in forcing with changes in surface and atmospheric temperatures and changes in large scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the first in a series of hyper-spectral polar orbiting sounders, was launch on the EOS Aqua into a 1:30 pm polar orbit at 705 km altitude in May 2002, with an anticipated lifetime of 12 years. The Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) was launched in October 2006 into a 9:30 AM orbit, to be followed by the Crosstrack InfraRed Sounder (CRIS) in a 2 PM orbit in 2010. The AIRS radiometric stability since 2002 has been verified at the better than 0.01 K/year level. We report on observations of the oceans between 30S and 30N. The 0.05 K/year trend in co2 sensitive channels due to the 2 ppmv/year increase in the co2 column abundance is readily detectable and statistically reliable. The AIRS data show very consistent seasonal modulations of key surface, cloud, water vapor and atmospheric temperatures. After removing the seasonal variation, the anomaly shows interannual rms variability in the monthly means larger than 0.1 K. The rms variability in the monthly means in the mid- tropospheric temperature with peak excursions as large as 0.6 K are observed by the AIRS 2388 cm-1 channel and AMSU channel 5 at 57 GHz. The interannual variability is not obviously correlated with the Multivariate Enso Index (MEI). This variability places limits on the length of time required to measure global warming trends at the 0.1 K/decade level. These limits exceed the expected 12 year lifetime of AIRS and need to be taken into account in the design of space missions and instruments to measure climate change.

  2. Incorporating Climate Variability into Precipitation Isoscapes for Interpreting Animal Migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vander Zanden, H.; Hobson, K. A.; Wassenaar, L. I.; Wunder, M. B.; Welker, J. M.; Bowen, G. J.

    2013-12-01

    Large-scale continental gradients in δ2H and δ18O values of precipitation lead to predictable isotopic patterns across the landscape. These light isotopes are thus useful endogenous markers in tracing long-distance movements of animals. Hydrogen in water is assimilated into tissues that are inert after synthesis, such as chitin or keratin, that are not altered when the animal moves so that the tissue reflects the environment or region from which it originated at the time when the tissue was synthesized. Models to predict the patters of δ2H in precipitation with the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) use long-term averages because models allowing estimation of isotopic values in more specific time periods have often not been available. Yet, inter-annual variation in precipitation and other climate variables may lead to large deviations from the mean values modeled over four decades, and particular regions may be more susceptible to higher departures from long-term average δ2H values. We examine whether incorporating such variation offers an improvement over static isoscapes to understand patterns of animal movement and geographic origin. Here we investigate the accuracy of Bayesian geographic assignments to predict the origin of two migratory species (monarch butterflies in the eastern United States and reed warblers in western Europe) using time-specific isoscapes. We use known-origin data from these organisms to provide calibration and validation datasets to compare the sensitivity of predictions from both year-specific and long-term isoscapes developed in IsoMAP, a freely available online workspace for modeling and predicting isotope ratio variation in precipitation. Determining how to incorporate climate and inter-annual variation into models that predict isotopic values of animal tissues can aid in improving geospatial assignments across a wide range of taxa.

  3. Development of a variable climate controlled portable storage facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timmins, Mitchel; Yadav, Kamal; Iroanusi, Kennedy; Tickle, Andrew J.

    2012-10-01

    This paper focuses on the development of a portable variable climate controlled system that can be tailored to the requirements of the item to be stored by manipulating the temperature, humidity and light levels within the controlled area. This could be used to store anything from bio-chemical samples (to preserve them from field work) to cooled electronics (prior to deployment in a given situation) to foodstuffs (such as wine and other alcohols). In this situation however, to provide a relatively simplistic example, the environment will be used to store wine. The system is adaptive in that anything can be stored within it, assuming the storage parameters are known in order to correctly configure the environment. In this paper a microcontroller (PICF4520) is connected to a fridge with various sensors attached to monitor and manipulate the environment and adjust it accordingly. For the chosen item to be stored, a temperature of 13- 14oC is required, a high humidity level and a non-Ultraviolent (UV) light source. This work thus allows for a small handheld unit that could be used to control the climate within without the need for the traditional 12 - 16 foot size portable units traditionally used. The unit could be left in the field and run off a solar cell to assist in longer term studies. This paper presents how the microcontroller is connected to the fridge and its sensors, how it manipulates the environment and the process by which the temperature and other factors can be changed without having to edit and recompile the C code, this allows for a much more friendly device interface.

  4. Climate variability during the Holocene inferred from northeastern Iberian speleothems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, A.; Bartolomé, M.; Sancho, C.; Belmonte, Á.; Stoll, H.; Cacho, I.; Edwards, R. L.; Hellstrom, J.

    2012-04-01

    Although the general climate trends during the Holocene in the Iberian Peninsula have been well described after the study of marine and lacustrine records, many questions regarding the timing of some of the events together with the characterization of the higher-frequency climate variability are still poorly understood. New speleothem records from several caves in northeastern Iberia provide data to explore Holocene climate changes. The selected caves are located in a latitudinal transect from the Pyrenees to the Iberian Range and placed at different altitude. Two of them, 5 de Agosto and Pot au Feu, belong to the same karstic complex in Cotiella massif (Central Pyrenees, 1600 m asl). Seso Cave, also in the Central Pyrenees but at 781 m of altitude, and Molinos cave, a cavity very rich in speleothems located at 1040 m in the Iberian Range, complete the transect. Although in all the caves precipitation coming from Atlantic fronts dominates over the year, a significant Mediterranean influence, specially in summer months, is identified after rainfall monitoring. Speleothem formation during the Holocene occurred at a very low pace in 5 de Agosto cave (80yrs/mm) and increased dramatically at low-altitude caves and during particular periods proved to be wetter (eg. Early Holocene in Molinos cave, less than 10yr/mm). In Seso and Pot au Feu caves, up to seven studied speleothems only grew during short climatic events such as the Iron Cold Period (3000-2500 cal yr BP) or the Little Ice Age (1300-1850 yr AD) that, although cold, were particularly humid periods in northeastern Spain. First stable isotope results highlight the importance of comparing speleothems with similar growing rates and from the same cave to extract climate information and discard other influences. From the integration of four stalagmites from Molinos cave covering since the Holocene onset to 2000 cal yrs BP, the Early Holocene (11.7-8.5 ka BP) with d13C values between -11 and - 9‰ appears as the

  5. Decadal-scale Holocene climate variability in the Nordic seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koc, N.; Andersen, C.; Andrews, J.; Jennings, A.

    2003-04-01

    Sea-surface temperatures (SST) at decadal resolution have been reconstructed from core MD 95-2011, core MD 99-2269 and core BS88-6-5A based on diatom transfer functions. Core MD 95-2011 is located on the Vöring Plateau (66^o58.18N; 07^o38.36E, 1050 m water depth) along the main axis of the northward flowing warm Atlantic water. It is, therefore, in an ideal position to monitor changes in the northward heat flux to northwestern Europe. Core MD 99-2269 is located in the deep Hunafloi trough, off N Iceland (66^o37.53N; 20^o51.16W, 365 m water depth). Today the core lies under the influence of the Irminger current, but it also may be influenced by the cold East Greenland current (EGC) as the Polar front migrates eastward. Core BS88-6-5A is located on the East Greenland shelf (67^o07.54N; 30^o54.26W, 707 m water depth) and is influenced by the EGC. The cores has been dated by AMS C-14 and Pb 210 isotope profiles. SST variations are estimated by means of 3 different diatom transfer function methods. Results indicate a division of the Holocene into three periods and a climate development in step with the decreasing Northern Hemisphere insolation. However, regional differences between the surface currents occur regarding both timing and magnitude of changes. Superimposed on the general Holocene cooling trend there is a high frequency SST variability, which is in the order of 1--1.5 degrees C for the Vöring Plateau and the East Greenland shelf, and 2.5--3 degrees C for the North Iceland shelf. There is clear evidence for late Holocene climatic events such as the "Little Ice Age" and the "Medieval Warm Period". Timing of late Holocene climatic events at the eastern versus western Nordic Seas will be discussed.

  6. Climate Variability Impacts on Watershed Nutrient Delivery and Reservoir Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, J. D.; Prochnow, S. J.; Zygo, L. M.; Byars, B. W.

    2005-05-01

    Reservoirs in agricultural dominated watersheds tend to exhibit pulse-system behavior especially if located in climates dominated by summer convective precipitation inputs. Concentration and bulk mass of nutrient and sediment inputs into reservoir systems vary in terms of timing and magnitude of delivery from watershed sources to reservoirs under these climate conditions. Reservoir management often focuses on long-term average inputs without considering short and long-term impacts of variation in loading. In this study we modeled a watershed-reservoir system to assess how climate variability affects reservoir primary production through shifts in external loading and internal recycling of limiting nutrients. The Bosque watershed encompasses 423,824 ha in central Texas which delivers water to Lake Waco, a 2900 ha reservoir that is the primary water source for the city of Waco and surrounding areas. Utilizing the Soil Water Assessment Tool for the watershed and river simulations and the CE-Qual-2e model for the reservoir, hydrologic and nutrient dynamics were simulated for a 10 year period encompassing two ENSO cycles. The models were calibrated based on point measurement of water quality attributes for a two year time period. Results indicated that watershed delivery of nutrients was affected by the presence and density of small flood-control structure in the watershed. However, considerable nitrogen and phosphorus loadings were derived from soils in the upper watershed which have had long-term waste-application from concentrated animal feeding operations. During El Niño years, nutrient and sediment loads increased by 3 times above non-El Niño years. The simulated response within the reservoir to these nutrient and sediment loads had both direct and indirect. Productivity evaluated from chlorophyll a and algal biomass increased under El Niño conditions, however species composition shifts were found with an increase in cyanobacteria dominance. In non-El Niño years

  7. Interannual climate variability and snowpack in the western United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cayan, Daniel R.

    1996-01-01

    An important part of the water supply in the western United States is derived from runoff fed by mountain snowmelt Snow accumulation responds to both precipitation and temperature variations, and forms an interesting climatic index, since it integrates these influences over the entire late fall-spring period. Here, effects of cool season climate variability upon snow water equivalent (SWE) over the western part of the conterminous United States are examined. The focus is on measurements on/and 1 April, when snow accumulation is typically greatest. The primary data, from a network of mountainous snow courses, provides a good description of interannual fluctuations in snow accumulations, since many snow courses have records of five decades or more. For any given year, the spring SWE anomaly at a particular snow course is likely to be 25%–60% of its long-term average. Five separate regions of anomalous SWE variability are distinguished, using a rotated principal components analysis. Although effects vary with region and with elevation, in general, the anomalous winter precipitation has the strongest influence on spring SWE fluctuations. Anomalous temperature has a weaker effect overall, but it has great influence in lower elevations such as in the coastal Northwest, and during spring in higher elevations. The regional snow anomaly patterns are associated with precipitation and temperature anomalies in winter and early spring. Patterns of the precipitation, temperature, and snow anomalies extend over broad regional areas, much larger than individual watersheds. These surface anomalies are organized by the atmospheric circulation, with primary anomaly centers over the North Pacific Ocean as well as over western North America. For most of the regions, anomalously low SWE is associated with a winter circulation resembling the PNA pattern. With a strong low in the central North Pacific and high pressure over the Pacific Northwest, this pattern diverts North Pacific

  8. The Climate Shift and the Climate Variability in the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez Parages, Jorge; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen

    2010-05-01

    The so-called "climate shift" (CS) was defined at the beginning of the nineties as a dramatic change between 1976-77 in the basic state of the tropical Pacific and in the ENSO dynamics. Nowadays, the 1976-1977 shift is interpreted as a phase change in a decadal scale oscillation (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO, Mantua et al. 1997) lasting from about 1976 to 1988 (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994, Miller et al. 1994). However, several changes in the global climate have been reported after the CS; as changes in the air-sea interactions and in the tropical and extratropical teleconnection patterns. The climate variability of the Mediterranean area is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Hurrell, 2003), which frequency and positive phase intensity has suffered an increase after the CS unprecedented in the instrumental period, in coincidence with extreme drought conditions in the Mediterranean region. This results remark the non-stationary variability of the NAO (Vicente-Serrano and López-Moreno, 2008b) and the existence of changes in the underlying dynamics. In addition, Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and ENSO have also shown to exhibit a strong and non- stationary influence in the Mediterranean basin, with maximum correlations at the beginning of the twenty century and since the CS (Mariotti et al. 2002), in concordance with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) evolution. A recent singular discovery show the influence of the Atlantic Niño on its Pacific counterpart (Rodríguez-Fonseca et al. 2009; Losada et al. 2009), a relation that was statistically pointed out in Polo et al. (2008a). These results remark the increasing importance of the TAV on the global climate and on the observed change, from the late 70's, in the global teleconnections. Although some studies point out the seasonal dependence of the leading modes of precipitation variability over Europe (Zveryaev, 2006), in this work, a gridded monthly terrestrial gauge

  9. The value of seasonal forecasting and crop mix adaptation to climate variability for agriculture under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, H. S.; Schneider, U.; Schmid, E.; Held, H.

    2012-04-01

    Changes to climate variability and frequency of extreme weather events are expected to impose damages to the agricultural sector. Seasonal forecasting and long range prediction skills have received attention as an option to adapt to climate change because seasonal climate and yield predictions could improve farmers' management decisions. The value of seasonal forecasting skill is assessed with a crop mix adaptation option in Spain where drought conditions are prevalent. Yield impacts of climate are simulated for six crops (wheat, barely, cotton, potato, corn and rice) with the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Daily weather data over the period 1961 to 1990 are used and are generated by the regional climate model REMO as reference period for climate projection. Climate information and its consequent yield variability information are given to the stochastic agricultural sector model to calculate the value of climate information in the agricultural market. Expected consumers' market surplus and producers' revenue is compared with and without employing climate forecast information. We find that seasonal forecasting benefits not only consumers but also producers if the latter adopt a strategic crop mix. This mix differs from historical crop mixes by having higher shares of crops which fare relatively well under climate change. The corresponding value of information is highly sensitive to farmers' crop mix choices.

  10. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

    PubMed

    Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. PMID:24418218

  11. Including Fossils in Phylogenetic Climate Reconstructions: A Deep Time Perspective on the Climatic Niche Evolution and Diversification of Spiny Lizards (Sceloporus).

    PubMed

    Lawing, A Michelle; Polly, P David; Hews, Diana K; Martins, Emília P

    2016-08-01

    Fossils and other paleontological information can improve phylogenetic comparative method estimates of phenotypic evolution and generate hypotheses related to species diversification. Here, we use fossil information to calibrate ancestral reconstructions of suitable climate for Sceloporus lizards in North America. Integrating data from the fossil record, general circulation models of paleoclimate during the Miocene, climate envelope modeling, and phylogenetic comparative methods provides a geographically and temporally explicit species distribution model of Sceloporus-suitable habitat through time. We provide evidence to support the historic biogeographic hypothesis of Sceloporus diversification in warm North American deserts and suggest a relatively recent Sceloporus invasion into Mexico around 6 Ma. We use a physiological model to map extinction risk. We suggest that the number of hours of restriction to a thermal refuge limited Sceloporus from inhabiting Mexico until the climate cooled enough to provide suitable habitat at approximately 6 Ma. If the future climate returns to the hotter climates of the past, Mexico, the place of highest modern Sceloporus richness, will no longer provide suitable habitats for Sceloporus to survive and reproduce. PMID:27420780

  12. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture.

    PubMed

    Naylor, Rosamond L; Battisti, David S; Vimont, Daniel J; Falcon, Walter P; Burke, Marshall B

    2007-05-01

    El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems. PMID:17483453

  13. Earth science: An extended yardstick for climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meckler, Nele

    2016-06-01

    Decoded and precisely dated information encrypted in stalagmites from a cave in China reveal past climatic changes and provide insight into the complex interactions in today's climate system. See Letter p.640

  14. How does complex terrain influence responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change?

    EPA Science Inventory

    We are pursuing the ambitious goal of understanding how complex terrain influences the responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change. Our studies take place in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site...

  15. A Combination of Divergence and Conservatism in the Niche Evolution of the Moorish Gecko, Tarentola mauritanica (Gekkota: Phyllodactylidae)

    PubMed Central

    Rato, Catarina; Harris, David James; Perera, Ana; Carvalho, Silvia B.; Carretero, Miguel A.; Rödder, Dennis

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of realized niche overlap and the integration of species distribution models (SDMs) with calibrated phylogenies to study niche evolution are becoming not only powerful tools to understand speciation events, but can also be used as proxies regarding the delimitation of cryptic species. We applied these techniques in order to unravel how the fundamental niche evolved during cladogenesis within the Tarentola mauritanica species-complex. Our results suggest that diversification within this complex, during the Miocene and Pleistocene, is associated with both niche divergence and niche conservatism, with a pattern that varies depending on whether the variables involved are related to the mean or seasonality of temperature and humidity. Moreover, climatic variables related to humidity and temperature seasonality were involved in the niche shift and genetic diversification of the European/North African clade during the Pleistocene and in its maintenance in a fundamental niche distinct from that of the remaining members of the group. This study further highlights the need for a taxonomic revision of the T. mauritanica species-complex. PMID:26000981

  16. Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Aiguo; Fyfe, John C.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Dai, Xingang

    2015-06-01

    Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strong warming. The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific, intensifying trade winds, changes in El Niño activity, increasing volcanic activity and decreasing solar irradiance. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyse observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called `hiatus' period since about 2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from those associated with GHG-induced warming or aerosol-induced cooling. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.

  17. Decadal Modulation of Global Surface Temperature By Internal Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, A.; Fyfe, J. C.; Xie, S. P.; Dai, X.

    2014-12-01

    Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernable warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations which on average project strong warming. The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific, intensifying trade winds, changes in El Niño activity, increasing volcanic activity and decreasing solar irradiance. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyze observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land since 1920. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called "hiatus" period since about 2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from GHG-induced warming. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.

  18. U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change will provide a detailed understanding of the consequences of climate change for the nation and will examine the possible coping mechanisms thatexist to adapt to climate change. This assessme...

  19. Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    characterized in each region by high/low quality wines. Finally, we also investigated how climate variability is related to DOC wine quality for different regions using North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Results reveal a strong dependence of wine quality for all regions on maximum temperature and precipitation during spring and summer (the growing season) as expected. However the role of temperature on wine quality seems to be distinct among the diverse regions probably due to their different climate zoning. Moreover, it is shown that the differences associated with high/low quality wine are in agreement with different synoptic fields patterns. Our results suggest that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage/high quality year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Santo F.E., de Lima M.I.P., Ramos A.M., Trigo R.M., Trends in seasonal surface air temperature in mainland Portugal, since 1941, International Journal Climatolology, 34: 1814-1837, doi: 10.1002/joc.3803 (2014) de Lima M.I.P., Santo F.E., Ramos A.M. , Trigo, R.M., Trends and correlations in annual extreme precipitation indices for mainland Portugal, 1941-2007, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-1079-6 (2014) Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAGGLO/4155/2012).

  20. Predictability of Mediterranean climate variables from oceanic variability. Part I: Sea surface temperature regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hertig, E.; Jacobeit, J.

    2011-03-01

    The determination of specific sea surface temperature (SST) patterns from large-scale gridded SST-fields has widely been done. Often principal component analysis (PCA) is used to condense the SST-data to major patterns of variability. In the present study SST-fields for the period 1950-2003 from the area 20°S to 60°N are analysed with respect to SST-regimes being defined as large-scale oceanic patterns with a regular and at least seasonal occurrence. This has been done in context of investigations on seasonal predictability of Mediterranean regional climate with large-scale SST-regimes as intended predictors in statistical model relationships. The SST-regimes are derived by means of a particular technique including multiple applications of s-mode PCA. Altogether 17 stationary regimes can be identified, eight for the Pacific Ocean, five for the Atlantic Ocean, two for the Indian Ocean, and two regimes which show a distinct co-variability within different ocean basins. Some regimes exist, with varying strength and spatial extent, throughout the whole year, whereas other regimes are only characteristic for a particular season. Several regimes show dominant variability modes, like the regimes associated with El Niño, with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or with the North Atlantic Tripole, whereas other regimes describe little-known patterns of large-scale SST variability. The determined SST-regimes are subsequently used as predictors for monthly precipitation and temperature in the Mediterranean area. This subject is addressed in Part II of this paper.

  1. A NICHE FOR ISOTOPIC ECOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Fifty years ago, GE Hutchinson defined the ecological niche as a hypervolume in n-dimensional space with environmental variables as axes. Ecologists have recently developed renewed interest in the concept, and technological advances now allow us to use stable isotope analyses to ...

  2. Changing Seasonality of Tundra Vegetation and Associated Climatic Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Bieniek, P.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J.; Tucker, C. J.; Steele, M.; Ermold, W. S.; Zhang, J.

    2014-12-01

    This study documents changes in the seasonality of tundra vegetation productivity and its associated climate variables using long-term data sets. An overall increase of Pan-Arctic tundra greenness potential corresponds to increased land surface temperatures and declining sea ice concentrations. While sea ice has continued to decline, summer land surface temperature and vegetation productivity increases have stalled during the last decade in parts of the Arctic. To understand the processes behind these features we investigate additional climate parameters. This study employs remotely sensed weekly 25-km sea ice concentration, weekly surface temperature, and bi-weekly NDVI from 1982 to 2013. Maximum NDVI (MaxNDVI, Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI), Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of degree months above freezing during May-August), ocean heat content (PIOMAS, model incorporating ocean data assimilation), and snow water equivalent (GlobSnow, assimilated snow data set) are explored. We analyzed the data for the full period (1982-2013) and for two sub-periods (1982-1998 and 1999-2013), which were chosen based on the declining Pan-Arctic SWI since 1998. MaxNDVI has increased from 1982-2013 over most of the Arctic but has declined from 1999 to 2013 over western Eurasia, northern Canada, and southwest Alaska. TI-NDVI has trends that are similar to those for MaxNDVI for the full period but displays widespread declines over the 1999-2013 period. Therefore, as the MaxNDVI has continued to increase overall for the Arctic, TI-NDVI has been declining since 1999. SWI has large relative increases over the 1982-2013 period in eastern Canada and Greenland and strong declines in western Eurasia and southern Canadian tundra. Weekly Pan-Arctic tundra land surface temperatures warmed throughout the summer during the 1982-1998 period but display midsummer declines from 1999-2013. Weekly snow water equivalent over Arctic tundra has declined over

  3. Detection of trends in surface ozone in the presence of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2016-05-01

    Trends in trace atmospheric constituents can be driven not also by trends in their (precursor) emissions but also by trends in meteorology. Here we use ground-level ozone as an example to highlight the extent to which unforced, low-frequency climate variability can drive multidecadal trends. Using output from six experiments of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (CM3), we demonstrate that 20 year trends in surface ozone driven by climate variability alone can be as large as those forced by changes in ozone precursor emissions or by anthropogenic climate change. We highlight regions and seasons where surface ozone is strongly influenced by climate variability and thus where a given forced trend may be more difficult to detect. A corollary is that this approach identifies regions and seasons of low variability, where measurement sites may be most effectively deployed to detect a particular trend driven by changing precursor emissions. We find that the representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 forced surface ozone trends in most locations emerge over background variability during the first half of the 21st century. Ozone trends are found to respond mostly to changes in emissions of ozone precursors and unforced climate variability, with a comparatively small impact from anthropogenic climate change. Thus, attempts to attribute observed trends to regional emissions changes require consideration of internal climate variability, particularly for short record lengths and small forced trends.

  4. Australia: Climate-Ecosystem Variability and Impacts on Disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gustafson, K. C.; Diabate, M.; Anyamba, A.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability in Australia is largely driven by an atmospheric phenomenon called the Southern Oscillation (SO), which involves a see-saw like behavior between low and high pressure systems within the equatorial Pacific regions. The interaction of SO with abnormally high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) - El Niño - or abnormally low SSTs - La Niña ("anti-El Niño") - creates extreme drought or extreme flooding respectively throughout the Australian continent. These El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have significant impacts on Australia's landscape, ecosystems, agriculture production, and, as this report show, human health. The teleconnection between ENSO and human health is straight forward but not obvious. During La Niña years, when ENSO events are characterized by increased rainfall and consequential flooding, Australia's tropical, warm climate in addition to an associated increase in vegetation growth from the increased rainfall creates an ideal habitat for mosquito population increase. Certain species of Australian mosquitoes [Culux annulirostris] are carriers of Murray Valley Encephalitis (MVE) virus which is a rare but potentially fatal infection that attacks neurological and muscular functioning. It is hypothesized that a widespread increase in vegetation indicates an expansion of ideal mosquito production habitats and will translate to an increased risk of MVE contraction. The objective of this research is to show if a correlation exists between the ENSO-driven climate- and consequential ecosystem- changes and MVE outbreaks throughout Australia. To do so, this study makes use of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor operating on NASA's Terra satellite to obtain monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. It is assumed in this research that an anomalous increase in NDVI values - indicative of vegetation growth - occurs as a result of increased rainfall. Due to Australia's tropical positioning and

  5. Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability

    PubMed Central

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Climate change mitigation acts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and thus curbing, or even reversing, the increase in their atmospheric concentration. This reduces the associated anthropogenic radiative forcing, and hence the size of the warming. Because of the inertia and internal variability affecting the climate system and the global carbon cycle, it is unlikely that a reduction in warming would be immediately discernible. Here we use 21st century simulations from the latest ensemble of Earth System Model experiments to investigate and quantify when mitigation becomes clearly discernible. We use one of the scenarios as a reference for a strong mitigation strategy, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and compare its outcome with either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5, both of which are less severe mitigation pathways. We analyze global mean atmospheric CO2, and changes in annually and seasonally averaged surface temperature at global and regional scales. For global mean surface temperature, the median detection time of mitigation is about 25–30 y after RCP2.6 emissions depart from the higher emission trajectories. This translates into detection of a mitigation signal by 2035 or 2045, depending on whether the comparison is with RCP8.5 or RCP4.5, respectively. The detection of climate benefits of emission mitigation occurs later at regional scales, with a median detection time between 30 and 45 y after emission paths separate. Requiring a 95% confidence level induces a delay of several decades, bringing detection time toward the end of the 21st century. PMID:24101485

  6. Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability.

    PubMed

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2013-10-22

    Climate change mitigation acts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and thus curbing, or even reversing, the increase in their atmospheric concentration. This reduces the associated anthropogenic radiative forcing, and hence the size of the warming. Because of the inertia and internal variability affecting the climate system and the global carbon cycle, it is unlikely that a reduction in warming would be immediately discernible. Here we use 21st century simulations from the latest ensemble of Earth System Model experiments to investigate and quantify when mitigation becomes clearly discernible. We use one of the scenarios as a reference for a strong mitigation strategy, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and compare its outcome with either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5, both of which are less severe mitigation pathways. We analyze global mean atmospheric CO2, and changes in annually and seasonally averaged surface temperature at global and regional scales. For global mean surface temperature, the median detection time of mitigation is about 25-30 y after RCP2.6 emissions depart from the higher emission trajectories. This translates into detection of a mitigation signal by 2035 or 2045, depending on whether the comparison is with RCP8.5 or RCP4.5, respectively. The detection of climate benefits of emission mitigation occurs later at regional scales, with a median detection time between 30 and 45 y after emission paths separate. Requiring a 95% confidence level induces a delay of several decades, bringing detection time toward the end of the 21st century. PMID:24101485

  7. Incorporating climate change trends to near future variability of crop yields in Iberia Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capa-Morocho, Mirian; Baethgen, Walter E.; Fernandes, Kátia; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we analyze the effects of near future climate variability on cropping systems in Iberian Peninsula (IP). For this purpose, we generated climate sequences that simulate realistic variability on annual to decadal time scales. The sequences incorporate nonlinear climate change trends, using statistical methods and and an ensemble of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Then, the climate sequences are temporal downscaled into daily weather data and used as inputs to crop models. As case study, we evaluate the impacts of plausible future climate scenarios on rain-fed wheat yield two agricultural locations in IP. We adapted the method by Greene et al., (2012 and 2015) for informing climate projections for the coming decades with a combination of seasonal to interannual and anthropogenically forced climate change information for accounting the Near-term Climate Change. Long-term data containing solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall are needed to apply this method. The climate variability observed was decomposed into long-range trend, decadal and interannual variability to understand the relative importance of each time scale. The interannual variability was modeled based on the observational records. The results of this study may have important implications on public and private sectors to analyze the probabilistic projections of impacts and agronomic adaptations of near future climate variability in Iberian Peninsula. This study has been funded by MACSUR project from FACCE-JPI. References Greene, A.M., Goddard, L., Gonzalez, P.L., Ines, A.V. and Chryssanthacopoulos, J., 2015.A climate generator for agricultural planning in southeastern South America.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 203: 217-228. Greene, A.M., Hellmuth, M. and Lumsden, T., 2012. Stochastic decadal climate simulations for the Berg and Breede water management areas, western Cape province, South Africa. Water Resources

  8. Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses.

    PubMed

    McCain, Christy; Szewczyk, Tim; Bracy Knight, Kevin

    2016-06-01

    The rush to assess species' responses to anthropogenic climate change (CC) has underestimated the importance of interannual population variability (PV). Researchers assume sampling rigor alone will lead to an accurate detection of response regardless of the underlying population fluctuations of the species under consideration. Using population simulations across a realistic, empirically based gradient in PV, we show that moderate to high PV can lead to opposite and biased conclusions about CC responses. Between pre- and post-CC sampling bouts of modeled populations as in resurvey studies, there is: (i) A 50% probability of erroneously detecting the opposite trend in population abundance change and nearly zero probability of detecting no change. (ii) Across multiple years of sampling, it is nearly impossible to accurately detect any directional shift in population sizes with even moderate PV. (iii) There is up to 50% probability of detecting a population extirpation when the species is present, but in very low natural abundances. (iv) Under scenarios of moderate to high PV across a species' range or at the range edges, there is a bias toward erroneous detection of range shifts or contractions. Essentially, the frequency and magnitude of population peaks and troughs greatly impact the accuracy of our CC response measurements. Species with moderate to high PV (many small vertebrates, invertebrates, and annual plants) may be inaccurate 'canaries in the coal mine' for CC without pertinent demographic analyses and additional repeat sampling. Variation in PV may explain some idiosyncrasies in CC responses detected so far and urgently needs more careful consideration in design and analysis of CC responses. PMID:26725404

  9. Spatio-temporal Trends of Climate Variability in North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad

    Climatic trends in spatial and temporal variability of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK), the Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) tests were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend and the trend shift, respectively. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve techniques were used to address the data independency and homogeneity. The pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of auto correlation of the data series. The difference between minimum and maximum temperatures, and so the diurnal temperature range (DTR), at some stations was found to be decreasing on both an annual and a seasonal basis, with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. For precipitation, a statewide increasing trend in fall (highest in November) and decreasing trend in winter (highest in February) were detected. No pronounced increasing/decreasing trends were detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Trend analysis on a spatial scale (for three physiographic regions: mountain, piedmont and coastal) revealed mixed results. Coastal zone exhibited increasing mean temperature (warming) trend as compared to other locations whereas mountain zone showed decreasing trend (cooling). Three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover, and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlative analysis purposes with the temperature (specifically with DTR) and precipitation trends. It appears that the moisture components are associated with DTR more than the circulation modes in North Carolina.

  10. Beyond a Climate-Centric View of Plant Distribution: Edaphic Variables Add Value to Distribution Models

    PubMed Central

    Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential for

  11. Climate Variability in Comprehensive Climate Simulations at the Beginning of the Common Era over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.; Gomez-Navarro, J. J.; Bothe, O.

    2014-12-01

    The climate of the Common Era has yet been studied, albeit with an overall focus on the last millennium. Here we present an analysis for the period 100 BC until 300 AD. The results are based on three simulations with comprehensive climate models, the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G (T30) and a recent simulation with the Earth System Model MPI-ESM-P (T63). The ECHO-G simulations are forced (i) only with changes in earth orbital parameters and (ii) additional solar and greenhouse gas forcings, respectively. The MPI-ESM-P simulation additionally includes the effect of volcanic activity. In all simulations summer temperatures show a quite stable temperature level, albeit with a slight negative trend caused by a decline in shortwave insolation due to changes in earth orbit. During the 2nd half of the 3rdcentury AD the MPI-ESM-P simulation shows a decline in temperatures. Since this negative temperature excursion is not evident in the ECHO-G simulations, which does not include volcanic forcing, it seems plausible that a large-size tropical volcanic eruption is responsible for this cooling event. Interestingly, the historical prominent eruption of the Vesuvius in 79 AD is not clear-cut reflected within the European temperature time series, most likely because of the small amount of injections of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. In comparison to the only orbitally forced ECHO-G simulation, the additionally solar and GHG forced ECHO-G simulation indicates some externally forced decadal variability connected to solar anomalous periods. Overall, the MPI-ESM-P simulation shows largest decadal variability compared to the ECHO-G simulations, most probably due to the increased horizontal resolution. Further analysis will include a comparison with proxy data with an overall emphasis on hydrological variations. For this task, a number of Regional Climate Model simulations will be used to downscale these global simulations and obtain better insight in the interactions

  12. Decadal variability in historical simulations by coupled climate models in CMIP5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, J.; Rasch, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate variability beyond interannual time scales has not been well explored by coupled climate models because of relatively poor simulations and shorter observational record to verify its robustness. However, a newly available historical data assimilation products such as 20CR, newly compiled surface observation datasets such as CRU_TS3.2 and GPCC, paleoclimate records, and improved simulation by coupled climate models provide a new opportunity. In this study, we'll evaluate how well fully coupled climate models in CMIP5 simulate a couple of well known decadal/multi-decadal climate variabilities, such as Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), Atlantic Multi-decadal oscillation (AMO), and decadal component of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Further, we'll use sets of sensitivity experiments with CESM1 to investigate the anthropogenic causes of these decadal variabilities.

  13. Ecological niche modeling of sympatric krill predators around Marguerite Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedlaender, Ari S.; Johnston, David W.; Fraser, William R.; Burns, Jennifer; Halpin, Patrick N.; Costa, Daniel P.

    2011-07-01

    Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae), carabeater seals ( Lobodon carcinophagus), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae), and minke whales ( Balaenoptera bonaernsis) are found in the waters surrounding the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Each species relies primarily on Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba) and has physiological constraints and foraging behaviors that dictate their ecological niches. Understanding the degree of ecological overlap between sympatric krill predators is critical to understanding and predicting the impacts on climate-driven changes to the Antarctic marine ecosystem. To explore ecological relationships amongst sympatric krill predators, we developed ecological niche models using a maximum entropy modeling approach (Maxent) that allows the integration of data collected by a variety of means (e.g. satellite-based locations and visual observations). We created spatially explicit probability distributions for the four krill predators in fall 2001 and 2002 in conjunction with a suite of environmental variables. We find areas within Marguerite Bay with high krill predator occurrence rates or biological hot spots. We find the modeled ecological niches for Adélie penguins and crabeater seals may be affected by their physiological needs to haul-out on substrate. Thus, their distributions may be less dictated by proximity to prey and more so by physical features that over time provide adequate access to prey. Humpback and minke whales, being fully marine and having greater energetic demands, occupy ecological niches more directly proximate to prey. We also find evidence to suggest that the amount of overlap between modeled niches is relatively low, even for species with similar energetic requirements. In a rapidly changing and variable environment, our modeling work shows little indication that krill predators maintain similar ecological niches across years around Marguerite Bay. Given the amount of variability in the marine environment around the

  14. Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deser, Clara; Knutti, Reto; Solomon, Susan; Phillips, Adam S.

    2012-11-01

    As climate models improve, decision-makers' expectations for accurate climate predictions are growing. Natural climate variability, however, poses inherent limits to climate predictability and the related goal of adaptation guidance in many places, as illustrated here for North America. Other locations with low natural variability show a more predictable future in which anthropogenic forcing can be more readily identified, even on small scales. We call for a more focused dialogue between scientists, policymakers and the public to improve communication and avoid raising expectations for accurate regional predictions everywhere.

  15. Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Groundwater Resources of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gurdak, Jason S.; Hanson, Randall T.; Green, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    Groundwater is an important part of the global fresh water supply and is affected by climate. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are working with local, State, Federal, and international partners to understand how the availability and sustainability of groundwater resources in the United States will be affected by climate variability and change. This fact sheet describes climate variability and change, important groundwater resources of the Nation, and how USGS research is helping to answer critical questions about the effects of climate on groundwater.

  16. Natural variability of the climate as predicted by a simple ocean model with parameterized thermohaline circulation

    SciTech Connect

    Watts, R.G.; Li, S.

    1995-12-31

    Variability of the Earth`s climate can take place on many time scales as a result of internal features. This natural variability is important to humans since it affects such important human enterprises as agriculture, floods, droughts, etc. The authors investigate natural variability within a simple ocean model.

  17. Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Crop Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, A. K.; Song, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, in terms of increasing levels of CO2, change in temperature and precipitation pattern, is directly influencing crop production through biophysical and phenology effects. At the same time crop production will also influence thermal energy and water exchange between land surface and atmosphere, and thus impact regional and global climate at long term time scale. Therefore, to satisfy the growing need of food production and realize sustainable agriculture under climate change, it is necessary to understand the complex interaction between crop productivity and climate change. While many research studies have been carried out on this area, there are still some unanswered key questions: How will changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and atmospheric CO2 affect the regional crop yields for each crop types? Will there be a positive, negative, or insignificant interaction between crop yields and climate change? In which climate region(s) will the interaction be most pronounced? How rain-fed crop production will influence water balance between land surface and atmosphere, and thus its production potential? A land surface model with dynamic simulation of crop component (ISAM) has been developed and applied to address these questions. The ISAM model is a process-based, biogeophysical and biogeochemical model, which calculates dynamic crop growth processes as well as carbon, nitrogen, water and energy exchanges between soil, crop-system and atmosphere. The crop-system considered in current version of the ISAM includes corn and soybean. This study will specifically focus on the agricultural regions in the US. The potential productivity of these crops will be assessed under the various atmospheric CO2 and climate change conditions. This study will help to quantify the impact of various environmental factors on row crops and to better understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of crop yields under different climate change conditions.

  18. Characterization of Climate Change and Variability with GPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kursinski, R.

    1999-01-01

    influence of natural climate variability. S. Leroy concludes that the signal-to-noise ratio of global warming detection increases by unity approximately every 10 years if a single oceanic region is chosen. Less time for detection is likely when many global regions are considered simultaneously. GPS occultation constellations allow the possibility of detecting small changes in upper air temperature with inconsequential calibration errors, making occultation an ideal data type for global warming detection studies. Our initial study of a 22-GHz satellite-satellite occultation system predicts upper troposphere moisture sensitivities of 3-5 ppmv and 1-2 percent in the middle and lower troposphere. Additional information contained in original.

  19. Subseasonal climate variability for North Carolina, United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe; Schimmel, Keith A.

    2014-08-01

    Subseasonal trends in climate variability for maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The magnitude and significance of the trends at all stations were determined using the non-parametric Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, respectively. The Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was also applied to find the initiation of abrupt trend changes. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve were employed to address the data independency and homogeneity. Using the MK trend test, statistically significant (confidence level ≥ 95% in two-tailed test) decreasing (increasing) trends by 44% (45%) of stations were found in May (June). In general, trends were decreased in Tmax and increased in Tmin data series in subseasonal scale. Using the TSA method, the magnitude of lowest (highest) decreasing (increasing) trend in Tmax is - 0.050 °C/year (+ 0.052 °C/year) in the monthly series for May (March) and for Tmin is - 0.055 °C/year (+ 0.075 °C/year) in February (December). For the precipitation time series using the TSA method, it was found that the highest (lowest) magnitude of 1.00 mm/year (- 1.20 mm/year) is in September (February). The overall trends in precipitation data series were not significant at the 95% confidence level except that 17% of stations were found to have significant (confidence level ≥ 95% in two-tailed test) decreasing trends in February. The statistically significant trend test results were used to develop a spatial distribution of trends: May for Tmax, June for Tmin, and February for precipitation. A correlative analysis of significant temperature and precipitation trend results was examined with respect to large scale circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A negative NAO index (positive-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index) was found to be associated with

  20. Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

    PubMed

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

    2010-05-01

    The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature. PMID:20404180

  1. Spatial variability of the trends in climatic variables across China during 1961-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Hanbo; Yang, Dawen; Hu, Qingfang; Lv, Huafang

    2015-05-01

    Distribution of meteorological stations is not uniform in many regions of the world, especially in developing countries like China. To eliminate the effect of uneven stations, this study produced a data set of areal average precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed from 736 meteorological station observations during 1961-2010 using an inverse-distance weighted technique. Based on the data set, this study detected the trends in climatic variables. Precipitation has a slight but no significant ( p = 0.78) trend for the whole of China and has a significant increase trend in northwest China. Surface air temperature has a significant ( p < 0.001) accelerating warming trend of 0.032 °C/a for the whole of China, and spatially larger in northern China than that in southern China. Solar radiation has a significant ( p < 0.001) dimming trend of -0.14 W/(m2 · a) for the whole of China, and the largest dimming trend appears in eastern China, the possible cause for which is a high-aerosol concentration. Surface wind speed has a significant ( p < 0.001) stilling trend of -0.012 m/(s·a) for the whole of China, the causes for which were speculated the changes in atmospheric circulation and surface roughness, as well as increases in aerosol concentration and the decrease in the south-north temperature gradient in China. In addition, three large-scale instrument replacements increase uncertainties of the trend analysis.

  2. Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (−) and one month ago (−)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (−)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future. PMID:26848675

  3. Solar variability and climate change: An historical perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feldman, Theodore S.

    There is nothing new about the debate over the Sun's influence on terrestrial climate.As early as the late 18th century, widespread concern for the deterioration of the Earth's climate led to speculation about the Sun's role in climate change [Feldman, 1993; Fleming, 1990]. Drawing analogies with variations in the brightness of stars, the British astronomer William Herschel suggested that greater sunspot activity would result in warmer terrestrial climates. Herschel supported his hypothesis by referring to price series for wheat published in Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations [Hufbauer, 1991]. Later, the eminent American physicist Joseph Henry demonstrated by thermopile measurements that, contrary to Herschel's assumption, sunspots were cooler than the unblemished portions of the solar disk.

  4. Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

    2016-02-01

    This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future. PMID:26848675

  5. The evolutionary convergence of avian lifestyles and their constrained coevolution with species' ecological niche.

    PubMed

    Laiolo, Paola; Seoane, Javier; Illera, Juan Carlos; Bastianelli, Giulia; Carrascal, Luis María; Obeso, José Ramón

    2015-12-22

    The fit between life histories and ecological niche is a paradigm of phenotypic evolution, also widely used to explain patterns of species co-occurrence. By analysing the lifestyles of a sympatric avian assemblage, we show that species' solutions to environmental problems are not unbound. We identify a life-history continuum structured on the cost of reproduction along a temperature gradient, as well as habitat-driven parental behaviour. However, environmental fit and trait convergence are limited by niche filling and by within-species variability of niche traits, which is greater than variability of life histories. Phylogeny, allometry and trade-offs are other important constraints: lifetime reproductive investment is tightly bound to body size, and the optimal allocation to reproduction for a given size is not established by niche characteristics but by trade-offs with survival. Life histories thus keep pace with habitat and climate, but under the limitations imposed by metabolism, trade-offs among traits and species' realized niche. PMID:26674945

  6. Estimating the climate variability of the last millennium on the East Antarctic plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Münch, Thomas; Laepple, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Quantitative knowledge about the climate variability on the Antarctic continent is crucial to attribute and detect the anthropogenic influence, and to understand the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet. Isotope records from firn and ice cores provide information about Holocene climate variability but strong non-climate effects hamper their quantitative interpretation, especially in low-accumulation regions. So far, the magnitude and time-scale dependency of both the climate signal and the noise is largely unknown. Here, we combine 16 annually-resolved firn cores spanning the last 200 years, three records covering the last millennium as well as surface snow data from the Amundsenisen region on the East Antarctic plateau. By means of a spectral correction technique we can separate the climate signal from noise and derive, for the first time, a time-scale dependent estimate of East-Antarctic temperature variability. Our preliminary results indicate that, unlike the raw isotope data, the obtained temperature variability for our study region shows a scaling behavior with more variability on longer time scales, similar to estimates from marine SST records. The noise levels we find are in accordance with the independent surface snow sampling results from Kohnen station. An analysis of the variability in current climate models on the other hand suggests less variability on centennial time scales. The discrepancy between the model and data-based results indicates either deficiencies in the model simulations, or further unknown processes affecting the ice-core records. Our estimate of East-Antarctic climate variability thus highlights the importance of an improved understanding of Holocene climate and ice-core derived variability.

  7. Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

    PubMed

    Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

    2015-01-01

    Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

  8. Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

    PubMed Central

    Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

    2015-01-01

    Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

  9. Impacts of Sea Surface Salinity Bias Correction on North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and Climate Variability in the Kiel Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

    2016-04-01

    We investigated impacts of correcting North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) biases on the ocean circulation of the North Atlantic and on North Atlantic sector mean climate and climate variability in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Bias reduction was achieved by applying a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model. The quality of simulating the mean circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability is greatly enhanced in the freshwater flux-corrected integration which, by definition, depicts relatively small North Atlantic SSS biases. In particular, a large reduction in the North Atlantic cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias is observed and a more realistic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) simulated. Improvements relative to the non-flux corrected integration also comprise a more realistic representation of deep convection sites, sea ice, gyre circulation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The results suggest that simulations of North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability could strongly benefit from alleviating sea surface salinity biases in the North Atlantic, which may enhance the skill of decadal predictions in that region.

  10. Role of climate variability in the heatstroke death rates of Kanto region in Japan.

    PubMed

    Akihiko, Takaya; Morioka, Yushi; Behera, Swadhin K

    2014-01-01

    The death toll by heatstroke in Japan, especially in Kanto region, has sharply increased since 1994 together with large interannual variability. The surface air temperature and humidity observed during boreal summers of 1980-2010 were examined to understand the role of climate in the death toll. The extremely hot days, when the daily maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C, are more strongly associated with the death toll than the conventional Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index. The extremely hot days tend to be associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation or the Indian Ocean Dipole, suggesting a potential link with tropical climate variability to the heatstroke related deaths. Also, the influence of these climate modes on the death toll has strengthened since 1994 probably related to global warming. It is possible to develop early warning systems based on seasonal climate predictions since recent climate models show excellent predictability skills for those climate modes. PMID:25008122

  11. Precipitation Variability and Projection Uncertainties in Climate Change Adaptation: Go Local!

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentations agenda includes: Regional and local climate change effects: The relevance; Variability and uncertainty in decision- making and adaptation approaches; Adaptation attributes for the U.S. Southwest: Water availability, storage capacity, and related; EPA research...

  12. Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. Second Edition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Waliser, Duane E.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding and predicting the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the ocean and atmosphere is crucial to improving long-range environmental forecasts and the reliability of climate change projections through climate models. This updated, comprehensive and authoritative second edition has a balance of observation, theory and modeling and provides a single source of reference for all those interested in this important multi-faceted natural phenomenon and its relation to major short-term climatic variations.

  13. Climate variability has a stabilizing effect on the coexistence of prairie grasses.

    PubMed

    Adler, Peter B; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Kyriakidis, Phaedon C; Guan, Qingfeng; Levine, Jonathan M

    2006-08-22

    How expected increases in climate variability will affect species diversity depends on the role of such variability in regulating the coexistence of competing species. Despite theory linking temporal environmental fluctuations with the maintenance of diversity, the importance of climate variability for stabilizing coexistence remains unknown because of a lack of appropriate long-term observations. Here, we analyze three decades of demographic data from a Kansas prairie to demonstrate that interannual climate variability promotes the coexistence of three common grass species. Specifically, we show that (i) the dynamics of the three species satisfy all requirements of "storage effect" theory based on recruitment variability with overlapping generations, (ii) climate variables are correlated with interannual variation in species performance, and (iii) temporal variability increases low-density growth rates, buffering these species against competitive exclusion. Given that environmental fluctuations are ubiquitous in natural systems, our results suggest that coexistence based on the storage effect may be underappreciated and could provide an important alternative to recent neutral theories of diversity. Field evidence for positive effects of variability on coexistence also emphasizes the need to consider changes in both climate means and variances when forecasting the effects of global change on species diversity. PMID:16908862

  14. Sub-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability in observations and the Kiel Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reintges, Annika; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2016-07-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic sector. The corresponding index varies on a wide range of timescales, from days and months to decades and beyond. Sub-decadal NAO variability has been well documented, but the underlying mechanism is still under discussion. Other indices of North Atlantic sector climate variability such as indices of sea surface and surface air temperature or Arctic sea ice extent also exhibit pronounced sub-decadal variability. Here, we use sea surface temperature and sea level pressure observations, and the Kiel Climate Model to investigate the dynamics of the sub-decadal NAO variability. The sub-decadal NAO variability is suggested to originate from dynamical large-scale air-sea interactions. The adjustment of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to previous surface heat flux variability provides the memory of the coupled mode. The results stress the role of coupled feedbacks in generating sub-decadal North Atlantic sector climate variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability in that region.

  15. Does climatic variability influence agricultural land prices under differing uses? The Texas High Plains case

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Texas High Plains faces projections of increasing temperature and declining precipitation in the future on account of its semi-arid climate. This research evaluated the impact of climatic variability on agricultural land prices under different land uses in the Texas High Plains, employing the Ri...

  16. Land use and climate variability amplify carbon, nutrient, and contaminant pulses: a review with management implications

    EPA Science Inventory

    Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture and urbanization is increasing globally at the same time that climate extremes have increased in frequency and intensity. We review over 160 studies and show how the interaction between land use and climate variability alters the magnit...

  17. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Forest, Chris E.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Li, Wei

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  18. Climate variability in the Carpathian Mountains Region over 1961-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheval, Sorin; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru

    2014-07-01

    The Carpathian Mountains Region (CMR) lies over parts of the territories of seven Central and Southeastern European countries, and the mountain chain induces major changes in the temperate climate specific to the latitudes between 43° and 49°N. Different administrations govern the long-term meteorological networks; the infrastructure, collection protocols, and storage capacities are specific to each country, so that a comprehensive study on the climate of the area has met considerable difficulties along time. Climate of the Carpathian Region (CARPATCLIM) is a regional initiative developed between 2010 and 2013 aiming to enhance the climatic information in the area by providing comprehensive, temporally and spatially homogenous data sets of the main meteorological variables. Based on daily data aggregated to a monthly scale at 10-km resolution, this study exploits and promotes the results of the CARPATCLIM project, documenting the variability of the main climatic variables over 1961-2010. For each month, the significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified, mapped and placed in the context of previous studies and climate change perspectives. The study has revealed several patterns in the climatic variability, i.e., positive or negative trends prevailing over the entire area, very distinct delineation between various trends induced by the Carpathian Mountain chain, and pledges for further scientific approaches, i.e., causes of the variability and applications in other domains.

  19. Changes in climate variability with reference to land quality and agriculture in Scotland.

    PubMed

    Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

    2015-06-01

    Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation. PMID:25099211

  20. Realized niche shift during a global biological invasion

    PubMed Central

    Tingley, Reid; Vallinoto, Marcelo; Sequeira, Fernando; Kearney, Michael R.

    2014-01-01

    Accurate forecasts of biological invasions are crucial for managing invasion risk but are hampered by niche shifts resulting from evolved environmental tolerances (fundamental niche shifts) or the presence of novel biotic and abiotic conditions in the invaded range (realized niche shifts). Distinguishing between these kinds of niche shifts is impossible with traditional, correlative approaches to invasion forecasts, which exclusively consider the realized niche. Here we overcome this challenge by combining a physiologically mechanistic model of the fundamental niche with correlative models based on the realized niche to study the global invasion of the cane toad Rhinella marina. We find strong evidence that the success of R. marina in Australia reflects a shift in the species’ realized niche, as opposed to evolutionary shifts in range-limiting traits. Our results demonstrate that R. marina does not fill its fundamental niche in its native South American range and that areas of niche unfilling coincide with the presence of a closely related species with which R. marina hybridizes. Conversely, in Australia, where coevolved taxa are absent, R. marina largely fills its fundamental niche in areas behind the invasion front. The general approach taken here of contrasting fundamental and realized niche models provides key insights into the role of biotic interactions in shaping range limits and can inform effective management strategies not only for invasive species but also for assisted colonization under climate change. PMID:24982155

  1. Disease and thermal acclimation in a more variable and unpredictable climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raffel, Thomas R.; Romansic, John M.; Halstead, Neal T.; McMahon, Taegan A.; Venesky, Matthew D.; Rohr, Jason R.

    2013-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting the distribution of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. As well as increasing mean temperatures, climate change is expected to increase climate variability, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments conducted in 80 independent incubators, and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America, support the framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was opposite to the pattern of growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. If similar acclimation responses influence other host-parasite systems, as seems likely, then present models, which generally ignore small-scale temporal variability in climate, might provide poor predictions for climate effects on disease.

  2. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  3. Long-term successional forest dynamics: species and community responses to climatic variability

    SciTech Connect

    Kardol, Paul; Todd Jr, Donald E; Hanson, Paul J; Mulholland, Patrick J

    2010-01-01

    Question: Are tree dynamics sensitive to climatic variability, and do tree species differ in their responses to climatic variability? Hence, is vulnerability of forest communities to climatic variability depending on stand composition? Location: Mixed young forest at Walker Branch Watershed near Oak Ridge, East-Tennessee, USA. Methods: Using a long-term data set (1967-2006), we analyzed temporal forest dynamics at the tree and species level, and we analyzed community dynamics for forest stands that different in their initial species composition (i.e., Chestnut Oak, Oak-Hickory, Pine, and Yellow poplar stands). Using summer drought and growing season temperature as defined climate drivers, we evaluated relationships between forest dynamics and climate across levels of organization. Results: Over the 4-decade studied period, forest communities underwent successional change and substantially increased their biomass. Variation in summer drought and growing season temperature contributed to temporal biomass dynamics for some tree species, but not for others. Stand-level responses to climatic variability were shown to be related to responses of specific component species; however, not for Pine stands. Pinus echinata, the dominant species in stands initially identified as Pine stands, decreased over time due to periodical outbreaks of the pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis). The outbreaks on Walker Branch could not be directly related to climatic conditions. Conclusions: Our results imply that vulnerability of developing forests to predicted climate conditions is stand-type dependent, and hence, is a function of species composition. Autogenic successional processes (or insect outbreaks) were found to prevail over climatic variability in determining long-term forest dynamics for stands dominated by sensitive species, emphasizing the importance of studying interactions between forest succession and climate change.

  4. Climate variability in Oklahoma - get ready for more

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Our climate is changing relatively rapidly now, with the most critical changes for agriculture in Oklahoma manifesting as increases in the number of intense rainfall events and prolonged droughts, wild swings in the winter and early spring between "too cold" and "too hot", and higher-than-previous o...

  5. Untapped genetic variability in Herefords: implications for climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global climate change (CC) has the potential to significantly alter US cattle productivity. As a result, the creation of genetic resources for a specific environment may be necessary, given that genetic-environmental interactions are present and may become more important. Molecular evaluation of a s...

  6. Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

    2015-02-01

    Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based

  7. Utilizing Satellite Precipitation Products to Understand the Link Between Climate Variability and Malaria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maggioni, V.; Mousam, A.; Delamater, P. L.; Cash, B. A.; Quispe, A.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria is a public health threat to people globally leading to 198 million cases and 584,000 deaths annually. Outbreaks of vector borne diseases such as malaria can be significantly impacted by climate variables such as precipitation. For example, an increase in rainfall has the potential to create pools of water that can serve as breeding locations for mosquitos. Peru is a country that is currently controlling malaria, but has not been able to completely eliminate the disease. Despite the various initiatives in order to control malaria - including regional efforts to improve surveillance, early detection, prompt treatment, and vector management - malaria cases in Peru have risen between 2011 and 2014. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that climate variability plays a fundamental role in malaria occurrence over a 12-year period (2003-2014) in Peru. When analyzing climate variability, it is important to obtain high-quality, high-resolution data for a time series long enough to draw conclusion about how climate variables have been and are changing. Remote sensing is a powerful tool for measuring and monitoring climate variables continuously in time and space. A widely used satellite-based precipitation product, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), available globally since 1998, was used to obtain 3-hourly data with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25°. The precipitation data was linked to weekly (2003-2014) malaria cases collected by health centers and available at a district level all over Peru to investigate the relationship between precipitation and the seasonal and annual variations in malaria incidence. Further studies will incorporate additional climate variables such as temperature, humidity, soil moisture, and surface pressure from remote sensing data products and climate models. Ultimately, this research will help us to understand if climate variability impacts malaria incidence

  8. Vegetation response to climate variability in India from 2001 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Wang, W.; Ganguly, S.; Michaelis, A.; Nemani, R.

    2011-12-01

    Food supply in India is a critical issue in sustaining a large population, and more accurate predictability of agricultural productivity is necessary for policy makers. After the Green revolution, the productivity in India has increased dramatically, but the leveling-off of the productivity was expected in the near future. Decreasing of ground water was already observed and some climate models predict a higher frequency of drought in the 21st century. For a better understanding of vegetation response to climate change, we analyzed the satellite images of India from 2001 to 2010. MODIS satellite imagery shows high spatial variability in vegetation indices in response to climate variability. In this study we scrutinize the cause and mechanism of the spatial variability in vegetation growth in India. First, we tried to find the corresponding climate variability from re-analysis data (MERRA and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data) and satellite imagery such as TRMM, GIMMS, and MODIS, as well as interpolated climate observation data (CRU). Although the precipitation variability due to ENSO has the strongest impact on vegetation growth, the other climate variability, such as shortwave radiation, also perturbed the vegetation response to climate changes. Second, we proved our hypothesis explaining the vegetation growth trend by running the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) model. The model results were compared with satellite images and showed reasonable spatial pattern of net primary production to explain the observed vegetation growth variability to climate change. Those results can contribute to a more profound understanding of the mechanism of vegetation growth in India toward future prediction in food supply.

  9. Crop models capture the impacts of climate variability on corn yield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niyogi, Dev; Liu, Xing; Andresen, Jeff; Song, Yang; Jain, Atul K.; Kellner, Olivia; Takle, Eugene S.; Doering, Otto C.

    2015-05-01

    We investigate the ability of three different crop models of varying complexity for capturing El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based climate variability impacts on the U.S. Corn Belt (1981-2010). Results indicate that crop models, irrespective of their complexity, are able to capture the impacts of climate variability on yield. Multiple-model ensemble analysis provides best results. There was no significant difference between using on-site and gridded meteorological data sets to drive the models. These results highlight the ability of using simpler crop models and gridded regional data sets for crop-climate assessments.

  10. Causes of Decadal Climate Variability over the North Pacific and North America.

    PubMed

    Latif, M; Barnett, T P

    1994-10-28

    The cause of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Ocean and North America is investigated by the analysis of data from a multidecadal integration with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations. About one-third of the low-frequency climate variability in the region of interest can be attributed to a cycle involving unstable air-sea interactions between the subtropical gyre circulation in the North Pacific and the Aleutian low-pressure system. The existence of this cycle provides a basis for long-range climate forecasting over the western United States at decadal time scales. PMID:17793457

  11. Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

    2015-02-27

    This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

  12. The Impact of Climate and Its Variability on Crop Yield and Irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X.; Troy, T.

    2014-12-01

    As the global population grows and the climate changes, having a secure food supply is increasingly important especially under water stressed-conditions. Although irrigation is a positive climate adaptation mechanism for agriculture, it has a potentially negative effect on water resources. It is therefore important to understand how crop yields due to irrigation are affected by climate variability and how irrigation may buffer against climate, allowing for more resilient agricultural systems. Efforts to solve these barely exposed questions can benefit from comprehending the influence of climate variability on crop yield and irrigation water use in the past. To do this, we use historical climate data,irrigation water use data and rainfed and irrigated crop yields over the US to analyze the relationship among climate, irrigation and delta crop yields, gained by subtracting rainfed yield from irrigated yield since 1970. We find that the increase in delta crop yield due to irrigation is larger for certain climate conditions, such that there are optimal climate conditions where irrigation provides a benefit and other conditions where irrigation proves to have marginal benefits when temperature increased to certain degrees. We find that crop water requirements are linked to potential evapotranspiration, yet actual irrigation water use is largely decoupled from the climate conditions but related with other causes. This has important implications for agricultural and water resource system planning, as it implies there are optimal climate zones where irrigation is productive and that changes in water use, both temporally and spatially, could lead to increased water availability without negative impacts on crop yields. Furthermore, based on the exposed relationship between crop yield gained by irrigation and climate variability, those models predicting the global harvest will be redress to estimate crop production in the future more accurately.

  13. Niche conservatism above the species level

    PubMed Central

    Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Spaeth, Paula A.; Li, Cheng

    2009-01-01

    Traits that enable species to persist in ecological environments are often maintained over time, a phenomenon known as niche conservatism. Here we argue that ecological niches function at levels above species, notably at the level of genus for mammals, and that niche conservatism is also evident above the species level. Using the proxy of geographic range size, we explore changes in the realized niche of North American mammalian genera and families across the major climatic transition represented by the last glacial–interglacial transition. We calculate the mean and variance of range size for extant mammalian genera and families, rank them by range size, and estimate the change in range size and rank during the late Pleistocene and late Holocene. We demonstrate that range size at the genus and family levels was surprisingly constant over this period despite range shifts and extinctions of species within the clades. We suggest that underlying controls on niche conservatism may be different at these higher taxonomic levels than at the species level. Niche conservatism at higher levels seems primarily controlled by intrinsic life history traits, whereas niche conservatism at the species level may reflect underlying environmental controls. These results highlight the critical importance of conserving the biodiversity of mammals at the genus level and of maintaining an adequate species pool within genera. PMID:19897730

  14. Hutchinson's duality: The once and future niche

    PubMed Central

    Colwell, Robert K.; Rangel, Thiago F.

    2009-01-01

    The duality between “niche” and “biotope” proposed by G. Evelyn Hutchinson provides a powerful way to conceptualize and analyze biogeographical distributions in relation to spatial environmental patterns. Both Joseph Grinnell and Charles Elton had attributed niches to environments. Attributing niches, instead, to species, allowed Hutchinson's key innovation: the formal severing of physical place from environment that is expressed by the duality. In biogeography, the physical world (a spatial extension of what Hutchinson called the biotope) is conceived as a map, each point (or cell) of which is characterized by its geographical coordinates and the local values of n environmental attributes at a given time. Exactly the same n environmental attributes define the corresponding niche space, as niche axes, allowing reciprocal projections between the geographic distribution of a species, actual or potential, past or future, and its niche. In biogeographical terms, the realized niche has come to express not only the effects of species interactions (as Hutchinson intended), but also constraints of dispersal limitation and the lack of contemporary environments corresponding to parts of the fundamental niche. Hutchinson's duality has been used to classify and map environments; model potential species distributions under past, present, and future climates; study the distributions of invasive species; discover new species; and simulate increasingly more realistic worlds, leading to spatially explicit, stochastic models that encompass speciation, extinction, range expansion, and evolutionary adaptation to changing environments. PMID:19805163

  15. Cropping frequency and area response to climate variability can exceed yield response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohn, Avery S.; Vanwey, Leah K.; Spera, Stephanie A.; Mustard, John F.

    2016-06-01

    The sensitivity of agricultural output to climate change has often been estimated by modelling crop yields under climate change scenarios or with statistical analysis of the impacts of year-to-year climatic variability on crop yields. However, the area of cropland and the number of crops harvested per growing season (cropping frequency) both also affect agricultural output and both also show sensitivity to climate variability and change. We model the change in agricultural output associated with the response of crop yield, crop frequency and crop area to year-to-year climate variability in Mato Grosso (MT), Brazil, a key agricultural region. Roughly 70% of the change in agricultural output caused by climate was determined by changes in frequency and/or changes in area. Hot and wet conditions were associated with the largest losses and cool and dry conditions with the largest gains. All frequency and area effects had the same sign as total effects, but this was not always the case for yield effects. A focus on yields alone may therefore bias assessments of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. Efforts to reduce climate impacts to agriculture should seek to limit production losses not only from crop yield, but also from changes in cropland area and cropping frequency.

  16. Planning for Production of Freshwater Fish Fry in a Variable Climate in Northern Thailand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uppanunchai, Anuwat; Apirumanekul, Chusit; Lebel, Louis

    2015-10-01

    Provision of adequate numbers of quality fish fry is often a key constraint on aquaculture development. The management of climate-related risks in hatchery and nursery management operations has not received much attention, but is likely to be a key element of successful adaptation to climate change in the aquaculture sector. This study explored the sensitivities and vulnerability of freshwater fish fry production in 15 government hatcheries across Northern Thailand to climate variability and evaluated the robustness of the proposed adaptation measures. This study found that hatcheries have to consider several factors when planning production, including: taking into account farmer demand; production capacity of the hatchery; availability of water resources; local climate and other area factors; and, individual species requirements. Nile tilapia is the most commonly cultured species of freshwater fish. Most fry production is done in the wet season, as cold spells and drought conditions disrupt hatchery production and reduce fish farm demand in the dry season. In the wet season, some hatcheries are impacted by floods. Using a set of scenarios to capture major uncertainties and variability in climate, this study suggests a couple of strategies that should help make hatchery operations more climate change resilient, in particular: improving hatchery operations and management to deal better with risks under current climate variability; improving monitoring and information systems so that emerging climate-related risks are known sooner and understood better; and, research and development on alternative species, breeding programs, improving water management and other features of hatchery operations.

  17. Planning for Production of Freshwater Fish Fry in a Variable Climate in Northern Thailand.

    PubMed

    Uppanunchai, Anuwat; Apirumanekul, Chusit; Lebel, Louis

    2015-10-01

    Provision of adequate numbers of quality fish fry is often a key constraint on aquaculture development. The management of climate-related risks in hatchery and nursery management operations has not received much attention, but is likely to be a key element of successful adaptation to climate change in the aquaculture sector. This study explored the sensitivities and vulnerability of freshwater fish fry production in 15 government hatcheries across Northern Thailand to climate variability and evaluated the robustness of the proposed adaptation measures. This study found that hatcheries have to consider several factors when planning production, including: taking into account farmer demand; production capacity of the hatchery; availability of water resources; local climate and other area factors; and, individual species requirements. Nile tilapia is the most commonly cultured species of freshwater fish. Most fry production is done in the wet season, as cold spells and drought conditions disrupt hatchery production and reduce fish farm demand in the dry season. In the wet season, some hatcheries are impacted by floods. Using a set of scenarios to capture major uncertainties and variability in climate, this study suggests a couple of strategies that should help make hatchery operations more climate change resilient, in particular: improving hatchery operations and management to deal better with risks under current climate variability; improving monitoring and information systems so that emerging climate-related risks are known sooner and understood better; and, research and development on alternative species, breeding programs, improving water management and other features of hatchery operations. PMID:26105968

  18. Evaluating historical simulations of CMIP5 GCMs for key climatic variables in Zhejiang Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xuan, Weidong; Ma, Chong; Kang, Lili; Gu, Haiting; Pan, Suli; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2015-12-01

    Assessing the regional impact of climate change on agriculture, hydrology, and forests is vital for sustainable management. Trustworthy projections of climate change are needed to support these assessments. In this paper, 18 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated for their ability to simulate regional climate change in Zhejiang Province, Southeast China. Simple graphical approaches and three indices are used to evaluate the performance of six key climatic variables during simulations from 1971 to 2000. These variables include maximum and minimum air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, solar radiation, and relative humidity. These variables are of great importance to researchers and decision makers in climate change impact studies and developing adaptation strategies. This study found that most GCMs failed to reproduce the observed spatial patterns, due to insufficient resolution. However, the seasonal variations of the six variables are simulated well by most GCMs. Maximum and minimum air temperatures are simulated well on monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales. Solar radiation is reasonably simulated on monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales. Compared to air temperature and solar radiation, it was found that precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity can only be simulated well at seasonal and yearly scales. Wind speed was the variable with the poorest simulation results across all GCMs.

  19. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

    PubMed

    Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-03-15

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. PMID:26796918

  20. The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Noever, D.A.; Brittain, A.; Matsos, H.C.; Baskaran, S.; Obenhuber, D.

    1996-12-31

    In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. The authors develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed trend and order of magnitude change in global temperature. Once backtested in this way on historical data, the model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution which minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The genetic algorithm assigns various biome distributions to the planet, then adjusts their percentage area and albedo effects to regulate or moderate temperature changes.

  1. Assessing the future of crop yield variability in the United States with downscaled climate projections (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobell, D. B.; Urban, D.

    2010-12-01

    One aspect of climate change of particular concern to farmers and food markets is the potential for increased year-to-year variability in crop yields. Recent episodes of food price increases following the Australian drought or Russian heat wave have heightened this concern. Downscaled climate projections that properly capture the magnitude of daily and interannual variability of weather can be useful for projecting future yield variability. Here we examine the potential magnitude and cause of changes in variability of corn yields in the United States up to 2050. Using downscaled climate projections from multiple models, we estimate a distribution of changes in mean and variability of growing season average temperature and precipitation. These projections are then fed into a model of maize yield that explicitly factors in the effect of extremely warm days. Changes in yield variability can result from a shift in mean temperatures coupled with a nonlinear crop response, a shift in climate variability, or a combination of the two. The results are decomposed into these different causes, with implications for future research to reduce uncertainties in projections of future yield variability.

  2. North American monsoon variability from paleoclimate era to climate change projection: A multiple dataset perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrillo Cruz, Carlos Mauricio

    In southwestern United States, the North American monsoon (NAM) is the main driver of severe weather in the Southwest. How the monsoon has behaved in the past and how it will change in the future is a question of importance for natural resource management and infrastructural planning. In this dissertation, I present the results of three studies that have investigated NAM variability and change from the perspective of paleoclimate records, future climate change projections, and simulation of the low-frequency variability with the longest retrospective atmospheric reanalysis. In the first study, a monsoon-sensitive network of tree-ring chronologies is evaluated within its ability to reproduce NAM variability during the past four centuries. The tree-ring chronologies can reasonable characterizes the dominant modes of NAM climate variability and reveal low-frequency climate variability at decadal and longer timescales that is beyond the ability of the instrumental record to temporally well resolve. This low-frequency climate variability seems to coincide with the occurrence of multiyear persistent droughts. In the second study, we consider the modes of climate variability to assess the degree of physical uncertainty in climate change projections models used in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP models are evaluated mainly on their ability to represent warm season driven by quasi-stationary Rossby wave trains and El Nino Southern Oscillation -- Pacific Decadal Variability (ENSO-PDV). Only one out of eight NARCCAP models has a reasonable representation of the seasonal cycle of monsoon precipitation and ENSO-driven variability in both the 20 th and 21st centuries. No decadal variability was observed in any of the NARCCAP models. In the third study, the low-frequency drought signal found with tree-ring chronologies is further explored within the framework of a regional climate modeling. The Twentieth-Century Reanalysis is

  3. Climatic variability effects on summer cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capa-Morocho, M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop yield and damages. Climate anomalies projections at monthly and yearly timescale allows us for adapting a cropping system (crops, varieties and management) to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The objective of this work is to develop indices to evaluate the effect of climatic variability in summer cropping systems of Iberian Peninsula, in an attempt of relating yield variability to climate variability, extending the work of Rodríguez-Puebla (2004). This paper analyses the evolution of the yield anomalies of irrigated maize in several representative agricultural locations in Spain with contrasting temperature and precipitation regimes and compare it to the evolution of different patterns of climate variability, extending the methodology of Porter and Semenov (2005). To simulate maize yields observed daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. These data were obtained from the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET). Time series of simulated maize yields were computed with CERES-maize model for periods ranging from 22 to 49 years, depending on the observed climate data available for each location. The computed standardized anomalies yields were projected on different oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields and the resulting patterns were compared with a set of documented patterns from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results can be useful also for climate change impact assessment, providing a scientific basis for selection of climate change scenarios where combined natural and forced variability represent a hazard for agricultural production. Interpretation of impact projections would also be enhanced.

  4. The Women's Role in the Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change: Its Contribution to the Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quintero Angel, M.; Carvajal Escobar, Y.; Garcia Vargas, M.

    2007-05-01

    Recently, there is evidence of an increase in the amount of severity in extreme events associated with the climate variability or climate change; which demonstrates that climate in this planet is changing. There is an observation of increasing damages, and of social economical cost associated with these phenomena's, mostly do to more people are living in hazard vulnerable conditions. The victims of natural disasters have increase from 147 to 211 million between 1991 and 2000. In same way more than 665.000 people have died in 2557 natural disasters, which 90% are associated with water and climate. (UNESCO & WWAP, 2003). The actual tendency and the introduction of new factors of risk, suggest lost increase in the future, obligating actions to manage and reduce risk of disaster. Bind work, health, poverty, education, water, climate, and disasters is not an error, is an obligation. Vulnerability of society to natural hazards and to poverty are bond, to reduce the risk of disasters is frequently united with the reduction of poverty and in the other way too (Sen, 2000). In this context, extreme events impact societies in all the world, affecting differently men and women, do to the different roles they play in the society, the different access in the control of resources, the few participation that women have in taking decisions with preparedness, mitigation, rehabilitation of disasters, impacting more women in developing countries. Although, women understand better the causes and local consequences in changes of climate conditions. They have a pile of knowledge and abilities for guiding adaptation, playing a very important role in vulnerable communities. This work shows how these topics connect with the millennium development goals; particularly how it affects its accomplishment. It also describes the impact of climate variability and climate change in developing countries. Analyzing adaptation responses that are emerging; especially from women initiation.

  5. Effect of climate variables on cocoa black pod incidence in Sabah using ARIMAX model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ling Sheng Chang, Albert; Ramba, Haya; Mohd. Jaaffar, Ahmad Kamil; Kim Phin, Chong; Chong Mun, Ho

    2016-06-01

    Cocoa black pod disease is one of the major diseases affecting the cocoa production in Malaysia and also around the world. Studies have shown that the climate variables have influenced the cocoa black pod disease incidence and it is important to quantify the black pod disease variation due to the effect of climate variables. Application of time series analysis especially auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely used in economics study and can be used to quantify the effect of climate variables on black pod incidence to forecast the right time to control the incidence. However, ARIMA model does not capture some turning points in cocoa black pod incidence. In order to improve forecasting performance, other explanatory variables such as climate variables should be included into ARIMA model as ARIMAX model. Therefore, this paper is to study the effect of climate variables on the cocoa black pod disease incidence using ARIMAX model. The findings of the study showed ARIMAX model using MA(1) and relative humidity at lag 7 days, RHt - 7 gave better R square value compared to ARIMA model using MA(1) which could be used to forecast the black pod incidence to assist the farmers determine timely application of fungicide spraying and culture practices to control the black pod incidence.

  6. Molecular data and ecological niche modeling reveal population dynamics of widespread shrub Forsythia suspensa (Oleaceae) in China’s warm-temperate zone in response to climate change during the Pleistocene

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite its high number of endemic deciduous broad-leaved species in China’s warm-temperate zone, far less attention has been paid to phylogeographic studies in this region. In this work, the phylogeographic history of Forsythia suspensa endemic to China’s warm-temperate zone was investigated to explore the effect of climate change during the Pleistocene on the distribution of this deciduous broad-leaved species in China. Results The cpDNA data revealed seven phylogeographical groups corresponding to geographical regions. By contrast, the nrDNA data supported the samples clustered into three groups, which was inconsistent with separate geographical regions supported by cpDNA data. Ecological niche modeling showed that the climatically suitable area during the cold period was larger than that during the warm period. Conclusions Both molecular data and ecological niche modeling indicated that F. suspensa expanded to nearby low-elevation plains in the glacial periods, and retreated to mountaintops during interglacial warmer stages. This study thus supported that F. suspensa persisted in situ during the glacial of the Pleistocene with enlarged distribution area, contrary to the hypothesis of long distance southward migration or large-scale range contraction. PMID:24885704

  7. Physical mechanisms of solar variability influence on weather and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avakyan, Sergei

    2010-05-01

    Numerous researches into correlation of weather and climate characteristics with solar and geomagnetic activity confirm that such correlation does exist. However there is some uncertainty in interpretation of the Sun-weather-climate relations. The paper considers the main causes of this uncertainty which are as follows - the lack of permanent monitoring data on ionizing solar EUV/X-ray radiation including periods of flares; and also the data on electron fluxes of keV energy precipitating from radiation belts first of all during geomagnetic storms; - multiplicity of Sun-weather-climate links; - the lack of understanding what are the mechanisms of solar-geomagnetic activity (flares and storms) influence on weather and climate characteristics; By now mainly the research on galactic cosmic rays (GSR) including Forbush effects and solar cosmic rays (SCR) influences on atmosphere transparence characteristics and further on climate-weather characteristics have been carried out. The GCR flux increase causes the growth of low (usually optically thick) cloudness and therefore produces in generally cooling effect on the mean surface air temperature. The appearance of SCR causes the reduction of stratospheric and tropospheric transparence and produces also usually cooling effect However these events are rare and corresponding variations of fluxes energy are small. At the same time such strong and frequent manifestations of solar activity as flares and magnetic storms are not so far taken into account since it is not known what physical mechanisms could be responsible for energy transfer from solar flares and magnetic storms to the lower atmosphere. The paper describes a novel radio-optical mechanism responsible for the solar-terrestrial links which acts as a three-stage trigger and which could be useful for solving the problem "Sun- weather-climate". This physical mechanism is based on taking into account the excitation of Rydberg states of atoms and molecules in generation of

  8. Shifts in climate foster exceptional opportunities for species radiation: the case of South african geraniums.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Cabrera, Hugo I; Peres-Neto, Pedro R

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is often assumed to be a major driver of biodiversity loss. However, it can also set the stage for novel diversification in lineages with the evolutionary ability to colonize new environments. Here we tested if the extraordinary evolutionary success of the genus Pelargonium was related to the ability of its species to capitalize on the climate niche variation produced by the historical changes in southern Africa. We evaluated the relationship between rates of climate niche evolution and diversification rates in the main Pelargonium lineages and disentangled the roles of deep and recent historical events in the modification of species niches. Pelargonium clades exhibiting higher ecological differentiation along summer precipitation (SPP) gradients also experienced higher diversification rates. Faster rates of niche differentiation in spatially structured variables, along with lower levels of niche overlap among closely related species, suggest recent modification in species niches (e.g. dispersal or range shift) and niche lability. We suggest that highly structured SPP gradients established during the aridification process within southern Africa, in concert with niche lability and low niche overlap, contributed to species divergence. These factors are likely to be responsible for the extensive diversification of other lineages in this diversity hot spot. PMID:24358250

  9. The Role of Low-Level Jets in Regional Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weaver, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    Low Level Jets are ubiquitous features of the global climate system. These "rivers of air" in the lower atmosphere act as a scale transfer mechanism, bridging the larger scale climate variability and change to regionally focused impacts. During the boreal spring and summer, the North American low-level jet (NALLJ) transports copious amounts of momentum, heat, and moisture into central and eastern United States, with significant impacts on regional hydroclimate variability (drought and pluvial), extreme events (tornadic activity), ecology (jellyfish and bird migration), atmospheric constituent transport (ozone), and energy development (wind power). Given the interdisciplinary importance of the NALLJ, its mean state and variability on seasonal to multidecadal timescales will be discussed in a simple framework to stimulate cross-disciplinary thought and discussion with regard to warm season regional climate variability and change.

  10. Adaptation to climate variability: The role of the USDA Southern Plains Climate Hub

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Southern Plains USDA Climate Hub was established in 2014 in El Reno, Oklahoma to develop and deliver science-based, information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource land managers that enable climate-informed decision-making, and to provide access to assistance to implement those...

  11. Assessing Portuguese Guadiana Basin water management impacts under climate change and paleoclimate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maia, Rodrigo; Oliveira, Bruno; Ramos, Vanessa; Brekke, Levi

    2014-05-01

    indicates an increase in temperatures and a reduction of the precipitation values which go well beyond the observed values and, therefore, must be forcefully included in any realistic proactive water resource management decision. Using the results of this study it is possible to estimate future water availability and consumption satisfaction allowing for the elaboration of informed management decisions. In this study, the CMIP 3 Global Climate Models were considered for the definition of the effects of climate change, using the median and extreme tendencies based on the range of variation of the multiple climate projection scenarios. The observed climate variability, along with these model-derived tendencies, were used to inform the hydrology and water management models for the historical and future periods, respectively. Additionally, for a more comprehensive analysis on climate variability, a stochastic model was implemented based on the paleoclimate variability obtained from tree-ring records.

  12. Climate Variability and Impact at NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smoot, James L.; Jedlovec, Gary; Williams, Brett

    2013-01-01

    Climate analysis for the Southeast U. S. has indicated that inland regions have experienced an average temperature increase of 2F since 1970. This trend is generally characterized by warmer winters with an indication of increased precipitation in the Fall season. Extended periods of limited rainfall in the Spring and Summer periods have had greater areal coverage and, at other times the number of precipitation events has been increasing. Climate model projections for the next 10-70 years indicate warmer temperatures for the Southeast U.S., particularly in the Spring and Summer, with some indication of more extremes in temperature and precipitation as shown in the table below. The realization of these types of regional climate changes in the form of extended heat waves and droughts and their subsequent stress on facilities, infrastructure, and workforce could have substantial impact on the activities and functions of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. This presentation will present the results of an examination of the 100 year temperature and precipitation record for MSFC. Local warming has cause an increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures by nearly 3F, with a substantial increase in the number of maximum temperatures exceeding 90F and a decrease in the number of days with minimum temperatures below freezing. These trends have substantial impact of the number of heating / cooling degree days for the area. Yearly precipitation totals are inversely correlated with the change in mean temperature and the frequency of heavy rain events has remain consistent with the changes in yearly totals. An extended heat wave index was developed which shows an increase in frequency of heat waves over the last 35 years and a subsequent reduction in precipitation during the heat waves. This trend will contribute to more intense drought conditions over the northern Alabama region, increasing the potential of destructive wildfires in and around

  13. The influence of solar ultraviolet variability on climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlain, J. W.

    1982-01-01

    Changes in the solar u.v. flux and its wavelength distribution could affect the climate both directly and through the greenhouse effect of the ozone shield. Indeed, the ozone content of the stratosphere is highly sensitive to the relative intensity of two broad spectral regions in the solar u.v. The observed amplitude for global-ozone variation of a few percent at most over the solar cycle is compatible with a variation of solar u.v. flux of no more than about 20%.

  14. Niche dynamics of alien species do not differ among sexual and apomictic flowering plants.

    PubMed

    Dellinger, Agnes S; Essl, Franz; Hojsgaard, Diego; Kirchheimer, Bernhard; Klatt, Simone; Dawson, Wayne; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; van Kleunen, Mark; Weber, Ewald; Winter, Marten; Hörandl, Elvira; Dullinger, Stefan

    2016-02-01

    Biological invasions can be associated with shifts of the species' climatic niches but the incidence of such shifts is under debate. The reproductive system might be a key factor controlling such shifts because it influences a species' evolutionary flexibility. However, the link between reproductive systems and niche dynamics in plant invasions has been little studied so far. We compiled global occurrence data sets of 13 congeneric sexual and apomictic species pairs, and used principal components analysis (PCA) and kernel smoothers to compare changes in climatic niche optima, breadths and unfilling/expansion between native and alien ranges. Niche change metrics were compared between sexual and apomictic species. All 26 species showed changes in niche optima and/or breadth and 14 species significantly expanded their climatic niches. However, we found no effect of the reproductive system on niche dynamics. Instead, species with narrower native niches showed higher rates of niche expansion in the alien ranges. Our results suggest that niche shifts are frequent in plant invasions but evolutionary potential may not be of major importance for such shifts. Niche dynamics rather appear to be driven by changes of the realized niche without adaptive change of the fundamental climatic niche. PMID:26508329

  15. Combining data sources to characterise climatic variability for hydrological modelling in high mountain catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pritchard, David; Fowler, Hayley; Bardossy, Andras; O'Donnell, Greg; Forsythe, Nathan

    2016-04-01

    Robust hydrological modelling of high mountain catchments to support water resources management depends critically on the accuracy of climatic input data. However, the hydroclimatological complexity and sparse measurement networks typically characteristic of these environments present significant challenges for determining the structure of spatial and temporal variability in key climatic variables. Focusing on the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), this research explores how different data sources can be combined in order to characterise climatic patterns and related uncertainties at the scales required in hydrological modelling. Analysis of local observations with respect to underlying climatic processes and variability is extended relative to previous studies in this region, which forms a basis for evaluating the domains of applicability and potential insights associated with selected remote sensing and reanalysis products. As part of this, the information content of recent high resolution simulations for understanding climatic patterns is assessed, with particular reference to the High Asia Refined Analysis (HAR). A strategy for integrating these different data sources to obtain plausible realisations of the distributed climatic fields needed for hydrological modelling is developed on the basis of this analysis, which provides a platform for exploring uncertainties arising from potential biases and other sources of error. The interaction between uncertainties in climatic input data and alternative approaches to process parameterisation in hydrological and cryospheric modelling is explored.

  16. Impacts of Climate Trends and Variability on Livestock Production in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohn, A.; Munger, J.; Gibbs, H.

    2015-12-01

    Cattle systems of Brazil are of major economic and environmental importance. They occupy ¼ of the land surface of the country, account for over 15 billion USD of annual revenue through the sale of beef, leather, and milk, are closely associated with deforestation, and have been projected to substantially grow in the coming decades. Sustainable intensification of production in the sector could help to limit environmental harm from increased production, but productivity growth could be inhibited by climate change. Gauging the potential future impacts of climate change on the Brazilian livestock sector can be aided by examining past evidence of the link between climate and cattle production and productivity. We use statistical techniques to investigate the contribution of climate variability and climate change to variability in cattle system output in Brazil's municipalities over the period 1974 to 2013. We find significant impacts of both temperature and precipitation variability and temperature trends on municipality-level exports and the production of both milk and beef. Pasture productivity, represented by a vegetation index, also varies significantly with climate shocks. In some regions, losses from exposure to climate trends were of comparable magnitude to technology and/or market-driven productivity gains over the study period.

  17. Impacts of climate change and variability on tropospheric ozone and its precursors.

    PubMed

    Stevenson, David; Doherty, Ruth; Sanderson, Michael; Johnson, Colin; Collins, Bill; Derwent, Dick

    2005-01-01

    Two coupled climate-chemistry model experiments for the period 1990-2030 were conducted: one with a fixed climate and the other with a varying climate forced by the is92a scenario. By comparing results from these experiments we have attempted to identify changes and variations in physical climate that may have important influences upon tropospheric chemical composition. Climate variables considered include: temperature, humidity, convective mass fluxes, precipitation, and the large-scale circulation. Increases in humidity, directly related to increases in temperature, exert a major influence on the budgets of ozone and the hydroxyl radical: decreasing 03 and increasing OH. Warming enhances decomposition of PAN, releasing NOx, and increases the rate of methane oxidation. Surface warming enhances vegetation emissions of isoprene, an important ozone precursor. In the changed climate, tropical convection generally reduces, but penetrates to higher levels. Over northern continents, convection tends to increase. These changes in convection affect both vertical mixing and lightning NOx emissions. We find no global trend in lightning emissions, but significant changes in its distribution. Changes in precipitation and the large-scale circulation are less important for composition, at least in these experiments. Higher levels of the oxidants OH and H202 lead to increases in aerosol formation and concentrations. These results indicate that climate-chemistry feedbacks are dominantly negative (less 03, a shorter CH4 lifetime, and more aerosol). The major mode of inter-annual variability in the is92a climate experiment is ENSO. This strongly modulates isoprene emissions from vegetation via tropical land surface temperatures. ENSO is also clearly the dominant source of variability in tropical column ozone, mainly through changes in the distribution of convection. The magnitude of inter-annual variability in ozone is comparable to the changes brought about by emissions and climate

  18. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yield over the Terai Region of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subedi, S.; Acharya, A.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural sector in Nepal which alone contributes about 42 % of the total GDP have a huge influence on national economy. This sector is very much susceptible to climate change. This study is emphasized on Terai region (situated at an altitude of 60m to 300m) of Nepal which investigates the impacts of climate variability on various stages of cropping (paddy) periods such as transplant, maturity and harvest. The climate variables namely temperature and rainfall are used to explore the relationship between climate and paddy yields based on 30 years of historical observed data. Observed monthly rainfall and temperature data are collected from the department of hydrology and meteorology, and paddy yield data are collected from the Ministry of Agricultural Development. A correlation analysis will be carried out between the backward difference filtered climate parameters and the backward difference filtered rice yield. This study will also analyze average monthly and annual rainfall, and, min, max and mean temperature during the period of 1981-2010 based on 15 synoptic stations of Nepal. This study will visualize rainfall and temperature distribution over Nepal, and also evaluate the effect of change in rainfall and temperature in the paddy yield. While evaluating the impacts of climate on crop yield, this study will not consider the impact of irrigation in crop yield. The major results, climate distribution and its local/regional impacts on agriculture, could be utilized by planners, decision makers, and climate and agricultural scientists as a basis in formulating/implementing future plans, policies and projects.

  19. Winter Eurasian Climate Variability: Role of Cyclone and Anticyclone Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, C.; Zhang, X.; Guan, Z.

    2012-12-01

    This study investigates variability of extratropical Eurasian cyclone and anticyclone activity by using a modified automated cyclone and anticyclone identification and tracking algorithm. The cyclone and anticyclone activities are quantified by their regionally integrated intensity (CI and ACI) during 1978/79-2011/2012 winter seasons. We found that the time evolutions of the CI and ACI exhibit a general negative correlation of -0.7 between them at a significant level of 99.99%. This anticyclone (cyclone) variability contributes to the substantially large-scale sea level pressure variability over extratropical Eurasian continent, and explains the interannual fluctuation of surface air temperature over mid latitude Eurasia as well as the adjacent continents. The ACI swings from one phase to another, also producing large changes in snow cover extend, snow equivalent water as well as frequency of extreme cold events over the Eurasian continent. The strengthening of anticyclone intensity is preceded by retreated of the October sea-ice extent over Barents-Kara Sea, which associates tightly with an increasing stability at lower troposphere around the Ural Mountains and induces strengthening Eurasian anticyclones activity in the subsequent winter.

  20. The Indonesian Throughflow response to Indo-Pacific climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sprintall, Janet; Révelard, Adèle

    2014-02-01

    The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is the only open pathway for interocean exchange between the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins at tropical latitudes. A proxy time series of ITF transport variability is developed using remotely sensed altimeter data. The focus is on the three outflow passages of Lombok, Ombai, and Timor that collectively transport the entire ITF into the Indian Ocean, and where direct velocity measurements are available to help ground-truth the transport algorithm. The resulting 18 year proxy time series shows strong interannual ITF variability. Significant trends of increased transport are found in the upper layer of Lombok Strait, and over the full depth in Timor Passage that are likely related to enhanced Pacific trade winds since the early 1990s. The partitioning of the total ITF transport through each of the major outflow passage varies according to the phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) or El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In general, Pacific ENSO variability is strongest in Timor Passage, most likely through the influence of planetary waves transmitted from the Pacific along the Northwest Australian shelf pathway. Somewhat surprisingly, concurrent El Niño and positive IOD episodes consistently show contradictory results from those composites constructed for purely El Niño episodes. This is particularly evident in Lombok and Ombai Straits, but also at depth in Timor Passage. This suggests that Indian Ocean dynamics likely win out over Pacific Ocean dynamics in gating the transport through the outflow passages during concurrent ENSO and IOD events.

  1. Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C., Jr.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, A.; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

  2. Accessible Tools for Evaluating Variability of Climate Change using Hydrologic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldo, M. L.; Kaatz, L.; Woodbury, M.; Day, G. N.

    2010-12-01

    To help municipal and regional managers plan for future climate change, a web based Climate Change Decision Support System (ClimateChangeDSS.com) was designed to allow comparisons of predicted natural streamflow, driving hydrologic models with adjusted climate from selected downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). The web based approach allows users who may not have the ability to fund a complete climate change study to evaluate a variety of climate change impacts on hydrologic response and output results for analysis of their water systems under climate change. The USBR CMIP3 downscaled data for 112 GCM model projections across three emissions scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B1) were used in combination with calibrated hydrologic models from the National Weather Service (NWS) to generate climate-changed hydrology for the Colorado River above Lake Powell, South Platte River and Arkansas River in Colorado. Calibrated NWS models are available across the United States, and the DSS is being extended to include additional river basins nationwide. The ClimateChangeDSS supports a planning-period approach, where the simulated natural flows for a historical period are compared against a simulation of the same period using adjusted inputs reflecting climate change for the future planning period for one or more GCM model projections. For this study, a time-varying approach was developed to evaluate the continuous evolution of the impact of climate change on water supply and the evolution of the variability of supply volume and runoff timing based on an ensemble of GCM projections. The approach involves repeating the planning-period analysis for a sequence of planning periods from 2000 to 2085. The results can give water utilities an indication of how far we might be already along the path toward a specific future condition and a comparison of current and future variability and uncertainty.

  3. Sensitivity of ground - water recharge estimates to climate variability and change, Columbia Plateau, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vaccaro, John J.

    1992-01-01

    The sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates was investigated for the semiarid Ellensburg basin, located on the Columbia Plateau, Washington, to historic and projected climatic regimes. Recharge was estimated for predevelopment and current (1980s) land use conditions using a daily energy-soil-water balance model. A synthetic daily weather generator was used to simulate lengthy sequences with parameters estimated from subsets of the historical record that were unusually wet and unusually dry. Comparison of recharge estimates corresponding to relatively wet and dry periods showed that recharge for predevelopment land use varies considerably within the range of climatic conditions observed in the 87-year historical observation period. Recharge variations for present land use conditions were less sensitive to the same range of historical climatic conditions because of irrigation. The estimated recharge based on the 87-year historical climatology was compared with adjustments to the historical precipitation and temperature records for the same record to reflect CO2-doubling climates as projected by general circulation models (GCMs). Two GCM scenarios were considered: an average of conditions for three different GCMs with CO2 doubling, and a most severe “maximum” case. For the average GCM scenario, predevelopment recharge increased, and current recharge decreased. Also considered was the sensitivity of recharge to the variability of climate within the historical and adjusted historical records. Predevelopment and current recharge were less and more sensitive, respectively, to the climate variability for the average GCM scenario as compared to the variability within the historical record. For the maximum GCM scenario, recharge for both predevelopment and current land use decreased, and the sensitivity to the CO2-related climate change was larger than sensitivity to the variability in the historical and adjusted historical climate records.

  4. Effects of climate oscillations on wind resource variability in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Hamlington, P. E.; Collins, S. G.; Alexander, S. R.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2015-01-01

    Natural climate variations in the United States wind resource are assessed by using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) to decompose wind reanalysis data. Compared to approaches that average climate signals or assume stationarity of the wind resource on interannual time scales, the CSEOF analysis isolates variability associated with specific climate oscillations, as well as their modulation from year to year. Contributions to wind speed variability from the modulated annual cycle (MAC) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are quantified, and information provided by the CSEOF analysis further allows the spatial variability of these effects to be determined. The impacts of the MAC and ENSO on the wind resource are calculated at existing wind turbine locations in the United States, revealing variations in the wind speed of up to 30% at individual sites. The results presented here have important implications for predictions of wind plant power output and siting.

  5. Water governance: learning by developing adaptive capacity to incorporate climate variability and change.

    PubMed

    Kashyap, A

    2004-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities. PMID:15195430

  6. Climatic and terrestrial storage control on evapotranspiration temporal variability: Analysis of river basins around the world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Ruijie; Cai, Ximing

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of the temporal variability of evapotranspiration (ET) is fundamental to a comprehensive understanding of hydroclimatologic processes under a changing climate and anthropogenic interferences. This study applies a variance decomposition framework to assessing ET interannual and intra-annual variance in 32 large river basins. It is found that climate (precipitation and potential ET) and terrestrial storage play different roles in ET variance with different time scales. At the interannual scale, ET variance is primarily controlled by climatic variability and dampened/enhanced by terrestrial storage change. At the intra-annual scale, the sources of ET variance exhibit a geographic pattern: ET variance is controlled by terrestrial storage change in Middle Asia, by seasonality in the Indian monsoon region, by precipitation and terrestrial storage in low altitude arid regions, and by potential ET and terrestrial storage in boreal regions. Quantifying the components of ET variability will help scientists understand the factors on ET processes under various natural and anthropogenic conditions.

  7. A 0.6 million year record of millennial-scale climate variability in the tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibson, Kelly Ann; Peterson, Larry C.

    2014-02-01

    A ~600 kyr long scanning X-ray fluorescence record of redox variability from the Cariaco Basin, Venezuela, provides insight into rapid climate change in the tropics over the past five glacial-interglacial cycles. Variations in the sediment accumulation of the redox-sensitive element molybdenum (Mo) can be linked to changes in Intertropical Convergence Zone migration and reveal that millennial-scale variability is a persistent feature of tropical climate over the past 600 kyr, including during periods of interglacial warmth. This new record supports the idea that high-frequency tropical climate variability is not controlled solely by ice volume changes, with implications for the role of high-latitude forcing of Intertropical Convergence Zone position and tropical hydrology on millennial timescales.

  8. Sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability: insights from two Indian agro-ecoregions.

    PubMed

    Mondal, Pinki; Jain, Meha; DeFries, Ruth S; Galford, Gillian L; Small, Christopher

    2015-01-15

    Crop productivity in India varies greatly with inter-annual climate variability and is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall and temperature. The sensitivity of yields to future climate variability varies with crop type, access to irrigation and other biophysical and socio-economic factors. To better understand sensitivities to future climate, this study focuses on agro-ecological subregions in Central and Western India that span a range of crops, irrigation, biophysical conditions and socioeconomic characteristics. Climate variability is derived from remotely-sensed data products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM - precipitation) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS - temperature). We examined green-leaf phenologies as proxy for crop productivity using the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2000 to 2012. Using both monsoon and winter growing seasons, we assessed phenological sensitivity to inter-annual variability in precipitation and temperature patterns. Inter-annual EVI phenology anomalies ranged from -25% to 25%, with some highly anomalous values up to 200%. Monsoon crop phenology in the Central India site is highly sensitive to climate, especially the timing of the start and end of the monsoon and intensity of precipitation. In the Western India site, monsoon crop phenology is less sensitive to precipitation variability, yet shows considerable fluctuations in monsoon crop productivity across the years. Temperature is critically important for winter productivity across a range of crop and management types, such that irrigation might not provide a sufficient buffer against projected temperature increases. Better access to weather information and usage of climate-resilient crop types would play pivotal role in maintaining future productivity. Effective strategies to adapt to projected climate changes in the coming decades would also need to be tailored to regional biophysical and socio-economic conditions. PMID:24680541

  9. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity to streamflow variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, Y.

    2015-06-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impacts on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resources management. By using an elasticity-based method, calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrologic models, we have quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activity and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinhe basin located in northwest of China. This is an important watershed of Shaanxi Province that supplies drinking water for a population of over 6 million. The results from the three methods show that both human activity and climatic differences can have major effects on catchment streamflow, and the estimates of climate variability impacts from the hydrological models are similar to those from the elasticity-based method. Compared with the baseline period of 1960-1970, streamflow greatly decreased during 2001-2010. The change impacts of human activity and climate variability in 2001-2010 were about 83.5 and 16.5% of the total reduction respectively when averaged over the three methods. The maximum contribution value of human activity was appeared in 1981-1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal, which was 95, 112.5 and 92.4% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. The maximum value of the aridity index (E0/P) was 1.91 appeared in 1991-2000. Compared with 1960-1970 baseline period, climate variability made the greatest contributions reduction in 1991-2000, which was 47.4, 43.9 and 29.9% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. We emphasized various source of errors and uncertainties that may occurre in the hydrological model (parameter and structural uncertainty) and elasticity-based method (model parameter) in climate change impact studies.

  10. Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Remesan, Renji

    2016-07-01

    This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climate change induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce 'populations' of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall, both of which are predicted to change due to climate change. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing

  11. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  12. The Relative Contribution of Internal and Model Variabilities to the Uncertainty in Decadal Climate Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strobach, Ehud; Bel, Golan

    2016-04-01

    Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. The former is due to the sensitivity of the models to the initial conditions, and the latter is due to the different predictions of different models. There is not much that can be done to reduce the internal variability; however, there are several methods for reducing the model variability--for example, using an ensemble weighted according to the past performance of the models rather than an equally weighted ensemble. Quantifying the contribution of each of these sources can help in assessing the potential reduction of the total uncertainty of these climate predictions. We used an ensemble of climate model simulations, from the CMIP5 decadal experiments, that includes different climate models and several initializations for each of the models, to analyze the uncertainties on a decadal time scale. Time series of the monthly and annual means of the surface temperature and wind components were established for the variability analysis. The analysis focused on the contributions of the internal and model variabilities and the total uncertainty. We found that different definitions of the anomaly resulted in different conclusions regarding the variability of the ensemble. However, some features of the uncertainty were common to all the anomalies we considered. In particular, we found that (i) over decadal time scales, there is no considerable increase in the uncertainty with time; (ii) the model variability is more sensitive to the annual cycle than the internal variability (this, in turn, results in a maximal uncertainty during the winter in the northern hemisphere); (iii) the uncertainty of the surface temperature prediction is dominated by the model variability, whereas the uncertainty of the surface wind components is determined by both the model and the internal variabilities. Analysis of the spatial

  13. Mechanisms of change in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Ping; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2015-12-01

    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of natural variability that has considerable impacts on global climate and ecosystems, through rainfall variability in the tropical Pacific and atmospheric teleconnections. In response to global warming, ENSO-driven rainfall variability is projected to intensify over the central-eastern Pacific but weaken over the western Pacific, whereas ENSO-related sea surface temperature variability is projected to decrease. Here, we explore the mechanisms that lead to changes in ENSO-driven rainfall variability in the tropical Pacific in response to global warming, with the help of a moisture budget decomposition for simulations from eighteen state-of-the-art climate models. We identify two opposing mechanisms that approximately offset each other: the increase in mean-state moisture content associated with surface warming strengthens ENSO-related rainfall anomalies, whereas the projected reduction in ENSO-related variability of sea surface temperatures suppresses rainfall. Two additional effects--spatially non-uniform changes in background sea surface temperatures and structural changes in sea surface temperature related to ENSO--both enhance central-eastern Pacific rainfall variability while dampening variability in the western Pacific, in nearly equal amounts. Our decomposition method may be generalized to investigate how rainfall variability would change owing to nonlinear interactions between background sea surface temperatures and their variability.

  14. Climate variability and ocean fertility during the Aptian Stage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bottini, C.; Erba, E.; Tiraboschi, D.; Jenkyns, H. C.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.

    2015-03-01

    Several studies have been conducted to reconstruct temperature variations across the Aptian Stage, particularly during early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a. There is a general consensus that a major warming characterized OAE 1a, although some studies have provided evidence for transient "cold snaps" or cooler intervals during the event. The climatic conditions for the middle-late Aptian are less constrained, and a complete record through the Aptian is not available. Here we present a reconstruction of surface-water palaeotemperature and fertility based on calcareous nannofossil records from the Cismon and Piobbico cores (Tethys) and DSDP Site 463 (Pacific Ocean). The data, integrated with oxygen-isotope and TEX86 records, provide a detailed picture of climatic and ocean fertility changes during the Aptian Stage, which are discussed in relation to the direct/indirect role of volcanism. Warm temperatures characterized the pre-OAE 1a interval, followed by a maximum warming (of ~ 1.5-2 °C) during the early phase of anoxia under intense volcanic activity of the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP). A short-lived cooling episode interrupted the major warming, following a rapid increase in weathering rates. Nannofossils indicate that mesotrophic conditions were reached when temperatures were at their highest and OJP volcanism most intense, thus suggesting that continental runoff, together with increased input of hydrothermal metals, increased nutrient supply to the oceans. The latter part of OAE 1a was characterized by cooling events, probably promoted by CO2 sequestration during burial of organic matter. In this phase, high productivity was probably maintained by N2-fixing cyanobacteria, while nannofossil taxa indicating higher fertility were rare. The end of anoxia coincided with the cessation of volcanism and a pronounced cooling. The mid-Aptian was characterized by highest surface-water fertility and progressively decreasing temperatures, probably resulting from intense

  15. Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records.

    PubMed

    Turner, T Edward; Swindles, Graeme T; Charman, Dan J; Langdon, Peter G; Morris, Paul J; Booth, Robert K; Parry, Lauren E; Nichols, Jonathan E

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. (14)C or (10)Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40-100 years, and 120-140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation. PMID:27045989

  16. Methodological discussion for interdisciplinary project on the effects of climatic variability on cropping systems.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capa-Morocho, M.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.

    2012-04-01

    The Campus of International Excellence Moncloa (CEI, 2009) is a joint project of the Universities Complutense (UCM) and Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) which aims to promote connectivity between both of them in a context of scientific excellence. Within this framework an interdisciplinary doctoral Thesis is being developed, whose methodological line is presented here to collect the comments from the international scientific community. The aim of the Thesis is to assess the effect of the climatic variability in the agricultural systems of the Iberian Peninsula. It takes place between the group of agricultural systems (AgSystems) of the UPM and the TROPA group of Climatic Variability of the UCM. The provisional methodology consists on using time series of simulated crop yields and to correlate the monthly deviations with different atmospheric and oceanic anomalous fields in order to characterize the climate variability patterns affecting the fluctuations in productivity. We use observed data of climate reanalysis, general circulation models and crop simulation models. We have identified a common tool to connect both modeling disciplines: MATLAB software is used to program the functions used in data processing, for both climate and agricultural data. In this paper the methodological scheme will be shown. Both the potentials and synergies that we are finding between the group of modelers of climate and cropping systems, as well as the problems and methodological points to be resolved will be specified. We invite researchers with similar experiences to contribute to this discussion.

  17. The importance of including variability in climate change projections used for adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sexton, David M. H.; Harris, Glen R.

    2015-10-01

    Our understanding of mankind’s influence on the climate is largely based on computer simulations. Model output is typically averaged over several decades so that the anthropogenic climate change signal stands out from the largely unpredictable `noise’ of climate variability. Similar averaging periods (30-year) are used for regional climate projections to inform adaptation. According to two such projections, UKCIP02 (ref. ) and UKCP09 (ref. ), the UK will experience `hotter drier summers and warmer wetter winters’ in the future. This message is about a typical rather than any individual future season, and these projections should not be compared directly to observed weather as this neglects the sizeable contribution from year-to-year climate variability. Therefore, despite the apparent contradiction with the messages, it is a fallacy to suggest the recent cold UK winters like 2009/2010 disprove human-made climate change. Nevertheless, such claims understandably cause public confusion and doubt. Here we include year-to-year variability to provide projections for individual seasons. This approach has two advantages. First, it allows fair comparisons with recent weather events, for instance showing that recent cold winters are within projected ranges. Second, it allows the projections to be expressed in terms of the extreme hot, cold, wet or dry seasons that impact society, providing a better idea of adaptation needs.

  18. Social vulnerability and climate variability in southern Brazil: a TerraPop case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adamo, S. B.; Fitch, C. A.; Kugler, T.; Doxsey-Whitfield, E.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability is an inherent characteristic of the Earth's climate, including but not limited to climate change. It affects and impacts human society in different ways, depending on the underlying socioeconomic vulnerability of specific places, social groups, households and individuals. This differential vulnerability presents spatial and temporal variations, and is rooted in historical patterns of development and relations between human and ecological systems. This study aims to assess the impact of climate variability on livelihoods and well-being, as well as their changes over time and across space, and for rural and urban populations. The geographic focus is Southern Brazil-the states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul-- and the objectives include (a) to identify and map critical areas or hotspots of exposure to climate variability (temperature and precipitation), and (b) to identify internal variation or differential vulnerability within these areas and its evolution over time (1980-2010), using newly available integrated data from the Terra Populus project. These data include geo-referenced climate and agricultural data, and data describing demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of individuals, households and places.

  19. Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records

    PubMed Central

    Turner, T. Edward; Swindles, Graeme T.; Charman, Dan J.; Langdon, Peter G.; Morris, Paul J.; Booth, Robert K.; Parry, Lauren E.; Nichols, Jonathan E.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. 14C or 10Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40–100 years, and 120–140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation. PMID:27045989

  20. To what extent is climate change detection at the local scale 'clouded' by internal variability?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart

    2016-04-01

    Internal variability, i.e. the natural variability of the climate system, has been shown to be an important source of uncertainty in climate change projections of mean and (especially) extreme climate events, next to model uncertainty and uncertainty in projections of greenhouse gas emissions. To quantify the internal variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response, large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. For global climate models (GCMs) a number of these single model ensembles are indeed available. So far however, the size of single model ensembles for regional climate models (RCMs) has been limited to only a few members, relatively short periods or small modeling domains. Here, we use a 16 member ensemble generated with the RCM KNMI-RACMO2 driven by the GCM EC-EARTH. The initial atmospheric state of EC-EARTH was perturbed in 1850, after which each member was run until 2100 assuming the historical emission scenario until 2005 and the RCP8.5 emission scenario from 2006 onwards. Each of the EC-EARTH members was then downscaled on a 12-km resolved domain covering Western Europe including the Alps for the period 1950-2100. For this ensemble we show the climate change signal, the noise due to internal variability and the signal-to-noise ratio, and how these depend on parameter, season, location and projection period. Using an aggregated spatial probability perspective similar to Fischer et al. (2013) we also examine whether spatially aggregated responses yield more robust changes and earlier detection times of climate change. This information is particularly relevant when the output of RCMs is applied in impact studies. Firstly, with this information we can identify which of the two - internal variability or climate change - is more important for a certain timescale, requiring potentially different coping strategies. Secondly, the internal variability can be a cause for the discrepancy

  1. Water management to cope with and adapt to climate variability and change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdy, A.; Trisorio-Liuzzi, G.

    2009-04-01

    In many parts of the world, variability in climatic conditions is already resulting in major impacts. These impacts are wide ranging and the link to water management problems is obvious and profound. The know-how and the available information undoubtedly indicate that climate change will lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and can have major impacts on regional water resources, affecting both ground and surface water supply for sectorial water uses and, in particular, the irrigation field imposing notable negative effects on food security and poverty alleviation programs in most arid and semi-arid developing countries. At the United Nations Millennium Summit, in September 2000, world leaders adopted the Millennium Development Declaration. From this declaration, the IWRM was recognised as the key concept the water sector should be using for water related development and measures and, hence, for achieving the water related MDG's. However, the potential impacts of climate change and increasing climate variability are not sufficiently addressed in the IWRM plans. Indeed, only a very limited IWRM national plans have been prepared, coping with climate variability and changes. This is mainly due to the lack of operational instruments to deal with climate change and climate variability issues. This is particularly true in developing countries where the financial, human and ecological impacts are potentially greatest and where water resources may be already highly stressed, but the capacity to cope and adapt is weakest. Climate change has now brought realities including mainly rising temperatures and increasing frequency of floods and droughts that present new challenges to be addressed by the IWRM practice. There are already several regional and international initiatives underway that focus on various aspects of water resources management those to be linked with climate changes and vulnerability issues. This is the way where the water resources

  2. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  3. A simple coupled model of tropical Atlantic decadal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kushnir, Yochanan; Seager, Richard; Miller, Jennifer; Chiang, John C. H.

    2002-12-01

    A linear, zonally averaged model of the interaction between the tropical Atlantic (TA) atmosphere and ocean is presented. A balance between evaporation and meridional heat advection in the mixed layer determines the sea surface temperature tendency. The atmosphere is a fixed-depth, sub-cloud layer in which the specific humidity anomaly is determined by a steady-state balance between evaporation, meridional advection, and a parameterized humidity exchange with the free atmosphere. When the model is integrated, forced with observed surface wind anomalies from 1965 to the present, its simulation of the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is realistic and comparable to a simulation with a full ocean GCM. A statistical representation of surface winds and their relationship to the SST gradient across the equator is used to formulate and test a coupled model of their regional variability. Forced on both sides of the equator, in the trade-wind regions, with ``white-noise'' windspeed perturbations, the SST-wind relationship in the near-equatorial region feeds back positively on existing SST anomalies and gives rise to decadal variability.

  4. Mountain hemlock growth responds to climatic variability at annual and decadal time scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterson, D.W.; Peterson, D.L.

    2001-01-01

    Improved understanding of tree growth responses to climate is needed to model and predict forest ecosystem responses to current and future climatic variability. We used dendroecological methods to study the effects of climatic variability on radial growth of a subalpine conifer, mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana). Tree-ring chronologies were developed for 31 sites, spanning the latitudinal and elevational ranges of mountain hemlock in the Pacific Northwest. Factor analysis was used to identify common patterns of inter-annual growth variability among the chronologies, and correlation and regression analyses were used to identify climatic factors associated with that variability. Factor analysis identified three common growth patterns, representing groups of sites with different climate-growth relationships. At high-elevation and midrange sites in Washington and northern Oregon, growth was negatively correlated with spring snowpack depth, and positively correlated with growth-year summer temperature and the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO). In southern Oregon, growth was negatively correlated with spring snowpack depth and previous summer temperature, and positively correlated with previous summer precipitation. At the low-elevation sites, growth was mostly insensitive to annual climatic variability but displayed sensitivity to decadal variability in the PDO opposite to that found at high-elevation sites. Mountain hemlock growth appears to be limited by late snowmelt, short growing seasons, and cool summer temperatures throughout much of its range in the Pacific Northwest. Earlier snowmelt, higher summer temperatures, and lower summer precipitation in southern Oregon produce conditions under which growth is limited by summer temperature and/or soil water availability. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations could produce warmer temperatures and reduced snowpack depths in the next century. Such changes would likely increase mountain hemlock growth

  5. Low frequency variability of Climate-Related-Energy penetration in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raynaud, Damien; Baptiste, François; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

    2016-04-01

    The penetration rate of Climate Related Energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power source measures the mismatch between the energy availability from those fatal productions and the energy demand which may be also partly dependent on the climate. The penetration rate is a key factor - with potentially large technical and economic implications, to be accounted for in public policies and private initiatives for a massive integration of renewables in the classical energy system. For a given region, it is classically estimated from high resolution time series of energy productions and energy demand derived from times series of their driving climatic variables (temperature, wind, radiation, precipitation). The penetration rate obviously highly depends on the seasonal and also high frequency time variability of these climatic variables (François et al. 2016). A less studied aspect of this penetration rate is its dependence to low frequency variability of climate, from annual to pluriannual time scales. We here explore this dependence for a set of 12 contrasted hydroclimatic regions in Europe with long time series of weather variables reconstructed for the whole 20th century. We discuss the interannual, and interdecadal variability of the penetration rate for the solar-power, wind-power and run-of-the river energy sources taken individually and for different mixes. We discuss how it can be increased / stabilized with local energy storage. Reference : François, B, Hingray, B., Raynaud, R., Borga, M. and Creutin, J.D., 2016. Increasing Climate-Related-Energy penetration by integrating run-of-the river hydropower to wind/solar mix. Renewable Energy. 87(1), pp.686-696. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2015.10.064 This work is part of the COMPLEX Project (European Collaborative Project FP7-ENV-2012 number: 308601; http://www.complex.ac.uk/).

  6. Temporal changes in climatic variables and their impact on crop yields in southwestern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hong-Bin; Gou, Yu; Wang, Hong-Ye; Li, Hong-Mei; Wu, Wei

    2014-08-01

    Knowledge of variability in climatic variables changes and its impact on crop yields is important for farmers and policy makers, especially in southwestern China where rainfed agriculture is dominant. In the current study, six climatic parameters (mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine hours, temperature difference, and rainy days) and aggregated yields of three main crops (rice: Oryza sativa L., oilseed rape: Brassica napus L., and tobacco: Nicotiana tabacum L.) during 1985-2010 were collected and analyzed for Chongqing—a large agricultural municipality of China. Climatic variables changes were detected by Mann-Kendall test. Increased mean temperature and temperature difference and decreased relative humidity were found in annual and oilseed rape growth time series ( P < 0.05). Increased sunshine hours were observed during the oilseed rape growth period ( P < 0.05). Rainy days decreased slightly in annual and oilseed rape growth time series ( P < 0.10). Correlation analysis showed that yields of all three crops could benefit from changes in climatic variables in this region. Yield of rice increased with rainfall ( P < 0.10). Yield of oilseed rape increased with mean temperature and temperature difference but decreased with relative humidity ( P < 0.01). Tobacco yield increased with mean temperature ( P < 0.05). Path analysis provided additional information about the importance and contribution paths of climatic variables to crop yields. Temperature difference and sunshine hours had higher direct and indirect effects via other climatic variables on yields of rice and tobacco. Mean temperature, relative humidity, rainy days, and temperature difference had higher direct and indirect effects via others on yield of oilseed rape.

  7. Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Shuai-Lei; Luo, Jing-Jia; Huang, Gang

    2016-01-01

    Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005–2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). The model ensembles are generated from a suite of different atmospheric initial conditions using the same SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. We find that projected precipitation trends are subject to considerably larger internal uncertainty and hence have lower confidence, compared to the projected SAT trends in both the boreal winter and summer. Projected SAT trends in winter have relatively higher uncertainty than those in summer. Besides, the lower-level atmospheric circulation has larger uncertainty than that in the mid-level. Based on k-means cluster analysis, we demonstrate that a substantial portion of internally-induced precipitation and SAT trends arises from internal large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. These results highlight the importance of internal climate variability in affecting regional climate projections on multi-decadal timescales. PMID:26930402

  8. Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles.

    PubMed

    Yao, Shuai-Lei; Luo, Jing-Jia; Huang, Gang

    2016-01-01

    Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005-2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). The model ensembles are generated from a suite of different atmospheric initial conditions using the same SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. We find that projected precipitation trends are subject to considerably larger internal uncertainty and hence have lower confidence, compared to the projected SAT trends in both the boreal winter and summer. Projected SAT trends in winter have relatively higher uncertainty than those in summer. Besides, the lower-level atmospheric circulation has larger uncertainty than that in the mid-level. Based on k-means cluster analysis, we demonstrate that a substantial portion of internally-induced precipitation and SAT trends arises from internal large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. These results highlight the importance of internal climate variability in affecting regional climate projections on multi-decadal timescales. PMID:26930402

  9. Southern Hemisphere water mass conversion linked with North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Pahnke, Katharina; Zahn, Rainer

    2005-03-18

    Intermediate water variability at multicentennial scales is documented by 340,000-year-long isotope time series from bottom-dwelling foraminifers at a mid-depth core site in the southwest Pacific. Periods of sudden increases in intermediate water production are linked with transient Southern Hemisphere warm episodes, which implies direct control of climate warming on intermediate water conversion at high southern latitudes. Coincidence with episodes of climate cooling and minimum or halted deepwater convection in the North Atlantic provides striking evidence for interdependence of water mass conversion in both hemispheres, with implications for interhemispheric forcing of ocean thermohaline circulation and climate instability. PMID:15774752

  10. Vegetation and climate variability in tropical and subtropical South America during the late Quaternary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behling, H.

    2013-05-01

    Detailed palynological studies from different ecosystems in tropical and subtropical South America reflect interesting vegetation and climate dynamics, in particular during glacial and late glacial times. Records from ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest, savanna, Caatinga, Atlantic rainforest, Araucaria forest and grasslands provide interesting insight of past climate variability. The influence of events such as Dansgaard-Oeschger, Heinnrich stadials, changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) will be discussed. In particular the Younger Dryas (YD) period shows at different places distinct vegetational changes, revealing unexpected past climatic conditions.

  11. Geomagnetic field and climate: Causal relations with some atmospheric variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilifarska, N. A.; Bakhmutov, V. G.; Mel'nik, G. V.

    2015-09-01

    The relationship between climatic parameters and the Earth's magnetic field has been reported by many authors. However, the absence of a feasible mechanism accounting for this relationship has impeded progress in this research field. Based on the instrumental observations, we reveal the spatiotemporal relationship between the key structures in the geomagnetic field, surface air temperature and pressure fields, ozone, and the specific humidity near the tropopause. As one of the probable explanations of these correlations, we suggest the following chain of the causal relations: (1) modulation of the intensity and penetration depth of energetic particles (galactic cosmic rays (GCRs)) in the Earth's atmosphere by the geomagnetic field; (2) the distortion of the ozone density near the tropopause under the action of GCRs; (3) the change in temperature near the tropopause due to the high absorbing capacity of ozone; (4) the adjustment of the extra-tropical upper tropospheric static stability and, consequently, specific humidity, to the modified tropopause temperature; and (5) the change in the surface air temperature due to the increase/decrease of the water vapor greenhouse effect.

  12. Climate Variability and Local Land Use in the Upper Midwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klassen, Zachary; Wieber, Josef; Boyd, Sylke

    2014-03-01

    We have analyzed the longitudinal weather records from 12 distinct weather stations in Minnesota and the Dakotas in conjunction with long-term changes in land use in those locations including diurnal temperature range, precipitation, daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures and other data. The land types include rural cultivated land, urban areas and forest. One motivation for this study was to investigate the role of the transition from prairie land to high-evapo-transpiration crops such as soy and corn. The weather records were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We observe an increase in the extreme minimum temperatures throughout all months of the year. The increase in minimum temperatures is most pronounced for the northern-most locations in the dataset and for the winter months. Consistent with similar observations from other US locations, the mean daily temperature range has a decreasing trend for all non-urban locations. Urban locations are showing clear heat-island effects of increases in all temperature markers but no significant variations in daily temperature range. No significant difference in trends was found between cultivated and forested locations. Supported by HHMI grant.

  13. Mesosphere-Stratosphere Coupling: Implications for Climate Variability and Trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baldwin, Mark P.

    2004-01-01

    A key aspect of this project is the establishment of a causal link from circulation anomalies in the lower mesosphere and stratopause region downward through the stratosphere to the troposphere. The observational link for stratospheric sudden warmings and surface climate is fairly clear. However, our understanding of the dynamics is incomplete. We have been making significant progress in the area of dynamical mechanisms by which circulation anomalies in the stratosphere affect the troposphere. We are trying to understand the details and sequence of events that occur when a middle atmosphere (wind) anomaly propagates downward to near the tropopause. The wind anomaly could be caused by a warming or solar variations in the low-latitude stratopause region, or could have other causes. The observations show a picture that is consistent with a circulation anomaly that descends to the tropopause region, and can be detected as low as the mid-troposphere. Processes near the stratopause in the tropics appear to be important precursors to the wintertime development of the northern polar vortex. This may affect significantly our understanding of the process by which low-latitude wind anomalies in the low mesosphere and upper stratosphere evolve through the winter and affect the polar vortex.

  14. Short-term Holocene climate variability in coastal mid-Norway - the terrestrial response to the North Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klug, M.; Seidenkrantz, M.-S.; Piotrowski, J. A.; Heinemeier, J.; Rubensdotter, L.; Faust, J.; Knies, J.

    2012-04-01

    Coastal areas are known to be susceptible to maritime climate variations, especially where prevailing wind directions provide humidity and latent heat to the land masses. Temperature reconstructions from the eastern North Atlantic, and from northern and western Norway show simultaneous changes on millennial to centennial scales during the Holocene. However also latitudinal climatic differences occur during the Holocene. These indicate a more complex system along the Norwegian coast with regional temperature variations depending on more than only North Atlantic's climate. Climate sensitive archives such as lake sediments in coastal mid-Norway provide the opportunity to study the influence of and the terrestrial response to climate variations mediated by the North Atlantic and allow the extension of our knowledge about regional peculiarities along the Norwegian coast. Lake Blomstertjønna, a small lake outside Trondheim at 427 m a.s.l., enables a detailed study of climatic and environmental variations during the Holocene. The entire succession is 590 cm long and is composed of minerogenic sediments at the bottom and dominating biogenic sediments in the upper 495 cm. Radiocarbon dating of macrofossils aided by tephra identification reveal a lake history that started after deglaciation at about 12 kyr BP and shifted to a biogenic productive lake with overall uniform sedimentation rates at about 11 kyr BP. Biogeochemical proxies like total organic carbon and total sulphur and geophysical parameters show a weak, i.e. more even response to climatic variations in the gyttja-rich section and indicate that temperature was not a limiting factor for the lake productivity. In contrast, geochemical elemental ratios from XRF scanning reveal a pronounced long- and short-term variability of elemental composition. The long-term trend of selected elemental ratios reflects the general Holocene temperature evolution with higher values during the Holocene Thermal Maximum and a

  15. Climate Variability and Human Migration in the Netherlands, 1865–1937

    PubMed Central

    Jennings, Julia A.; Gray, Clark L.

    2014-01-01

    Human migration is frequently cited as a potential social outcome of climate change and variability, and these effects are often assumed to be stronger in the past when economies were less developed and markets more localized. Yet, few studies have used historical data to test the relationship between climate and migration directly. In addition, the results of recent studies that link demographic and climate data are not consistent with conventional narratives of displacement responses. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate data that cover the same period, we examine the effects of climate variability on migration using event history models. Only internal moves in the later period and for certain social groups are associated with negative climate conditions, and the strength and direction of the observed effects change over time. International moves decrease with extreme rainfall, suggesting that the complex relationships between climate and migration that have been observed for contemporary populations extend into the nineteenth century. PMID:25937689

  16. Inferring climate variability from nonlinear proxies: application to paleo-ENSO studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M. P.

    2015-07-01

    Inferring climate from paleodata frequently assumes a direct, linear relationship between the two, which is seldom met in practice. Here we simulate an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with surface temperature, and demonstrate the pitfalls of ignoring nonlinearities in the proxy-climate relationship. We explore three approaches to using this idealized proxy to infer past climate: (i) methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without consideration of nonlinearities, (ii) the same methods, after empirically transforming the data to normality to account for nonlinearities, (iii) using a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting nonlinearity often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals, and leads to reconstructions with poorly quantified uncertainties. In contrast, explicit recognition of the nonlinear relationship, using either a mechanistic model or an empirical transform, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations, with more accurate uncertainty quantification. We apply these insights to two paleoclimate settings. Accounting for nonlinearities in the classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha leads to quantitative departures from the results of the original study, and markedly affects the detection of variance changes over time. A comparison with the Lake Challa record, also a nonlinear proxy for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, illustrates how inter-proxy comparisons may be altered when accounting for nonlinearity. The results hold implications for how nonlinear recorders of normally distributed climate variables are interpreted, compared to other proxy records, and incorporated into multiproxy reconstructions.

  17. <