Science.gov

Sample records for computational fire modeling

  1. Computational fire modeling for aircraft fire research

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolette, V.F.

    1996-11-01

    This report summarizes work performed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Federal Aviation Administration. The technical issues involved in fire modeling for aircraft fire research are identified, as well as computational fire tools for addressing those issues, and the research which is needed to advance those tools in order to address long-range needs. Fire field models are briefly reviewed, and the VULCAN model is selected for further evaluation. Calculations are performed with VULCAN to demonstrate its applicability to aircraft fire problems, and also to gain insight into the complex problem of fires involving aircraft. Simulations are conducted to investigate the influence of fire on an aircraft in a cross-wind. The interaction of the fuselage, wind, fire, and ground plane is investigated. Calculations are also performed utilizing a large eddy simulation (LES) capability to describe the large- scale turbulence instead of the more common k-{epsilon} turbulence model. Additional simulations are performed to investigate the static pressure and velocity distributions around a fuselage in a cross-wind, with and without fire. The results of these simulations provide qualitative insight into the complex interaction of a fuselage, fire, wind, and ground plane. Reasonable quantitative agreement is obtained in the few cases for which data or other modeling results exist Finally, VULCAN is used to quantify the impact of simplifying assumptions inherent in a risk assessment compatible fire model developed for open pool fire environments. The assumptions are seen to be of minor importance for the particular problem analyzed. This work demonstrates the utility of using a fire field model for assessing the limitations of simplified fire models. In conclusion, the application of computational fire modeling tools herein provides both qualitative and quantitative insights into the complex problem of aircraft in fires.

  2. Wild Fire Computer Model Helps Firefighters

    SciTech Connect

    Canfield, Jesse

    2012-09-04

    A high-tech computer model called HIGRAD/FIRETEC, the cornerstone of a collaborative effort between U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station and Los Alamos National Laboratory, provides insights that are essential for front-line fire fighters. The science team is looking into levels of bark beetle-induced conditions that lead to drastic changes in fire behavior and how variable or erratic the behavior is likely to be.

  3. Wild Fire Computer Model Helps Firefighters

    ScienceCinema

    Canfield, Jesse

    2014-06-02

    A high-tech computer model called HIGRAD/FIRETEC, the cornerstone of a collaborative effort between U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station and Los Alamos National Laboratory, provides insights that are essential for front-line fire fighters. The science team is looking into levels of bark beetle-induced conditions that lead to drastic changes in fire behavior and how variable or erratic the behavior is likely to be.

  4. Computational modeling of composite material fires.

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Alexander L.; Erickson, Kenneth L.; Hubbard, Joshua Allen; Dodd, Amanda B.

    2010-10-01

    Composite materials behave differently from conventional fuel sources and have the potential to smolder and burn for extended time periods. As the amount of composite materials on modern aircraft continues to increase, understanding the response of composites in fire environments becomes increasingly important. An effort is ongoing to enhance the capability to simulate composite material response in fires including the decomposition of the composite and the interaction with a fire. To adequately model composite material in a fire, two physical model development tasks are necessary; first, the decomposition model for the composite material and second, the interaction with a fire. A porous media approach for the decomposition model including a time dependent formulation with the effects of heat, mass, species, and momentum transfer of the porous solid and gas phase is being implemented in an engineering code, ARIA. ARIA is a Sandia National Laboratories multiphysics code including a range of capabilities such as incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, energy transport equations, species transport equations, non-Newtonian fluid rheology, linear elastic solid mechanics, and electro-statics. To simulate the fire, FUEGO, also a Sandia National Laboratories code, is coupled to ARIA. FUEGO represents the turbulent, buoyantly driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, and combustion. FUEGO and ARIA are uniquely able to solve this problem because they were designed using a common architecture (SIERRA) that enhances multiphysics coupling and both codes are capable of massively parallel calculations, enhancing performance. The decomposition reaction model is developed from small scale experimental data including thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) in both nitrogen and air for a range of heating rates and from available data in the literature. The response of the composite material subject to a radiant heat flux boundary

  5. Infinity computations in cellular automaton forest-fire model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iudin, D. I.; Sergeyev, Ya. D.; Hayakawa, M.

    2015-03-01

    Recently a number of traditional models related to the percolation theory has been considered by means of a new computational methodology that does not use Cantor's ideas and describes infinite and infinitesimal numbers in accordance with the principle 'The whole is greater than the part' (Euclid's Common Notion 5). Here we apply the new arithmetic to a cellular automaton forest-fire model which is connected with the percolation methodology and in some sense combines the dynamic and the static percolation problems and under certain conditions exhibits critical fluctuations. It is well known that there exist two versions of the model: real forest-fire model where fire catches adjacent trees in the forest in the step by step manner and simplified version with instantaneous combustion. Using new approach we observe that in both situations we deal with the same model but with different time resolution. We show that depending on the "microscope" we use the same cellular automaton forest-fire model reveals either instantaneous forest combustion or step by step firing. By means of the new approach it was also observed that as far as we choose an infinitesimal tree growing rate and infinitesimal ratio between the ignition probability and the growth probability we determine the measure or extent of the system size infinity that provides the criticality of the system dynamics. Correspondent inequalities for grosspowers are derived.

  6. Reprint of Infinity computations in cellular automaton forest-fire model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iudin, D. I.; Sergeyev, Ya. D.; Hayakawa, M.

    2015-04-01

    Recently a number of traditional models related to the percolation theory has been considered by means of a new computational methodology that does not use Cantor's ideas and describes infinite and infinitesimal numbers in accordance with the principle 'The whole is greater than the part' (Euclid's Common Notion 5). Here we apply the new arithmetic to a cellular automaton forest-fire model which is connected with the percolation methodology and in some sense combines the dynamic and the static percolation problems and under certain conditions exhibits critical fluctuations. It is well known that there exist two versions of the model: real forest-fire model where fire catches adjacent trees in the forest in the step by step manner and simplified version with instantaneous combustion. Using new approach we observe that in both situations we deal with the same model but with different time resolution. We show that depending on the "microscope" we use the same cellular automaton forest-fire model reveals either instantaneous forest combustion or step by step firing. By means of the new approach it was also observed that as far as we choose an infinitesimal tree growing rate and infinitesimal ratio between the ignition probability and the growth probability we determine the measure or extent of the system size infinity that provides the criticality of the system dynamics. Correspondent inequalities for grosspowers are derived.

  7. Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasa, J.; Valasek, L.; Weisenpacher, P.; Halada, L.

    2013-02-01

    Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

  8. Development of a numerical computer code and circuit element models for simulation of firing systems

    SciTech Connect

    Carpenter, K.H. . Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering)

    1990-07-02

    Numerical simulation of firing systems requires both the appropriate circuit analysis framework and the special element models required by the application. We have modified the SPICE circuit analysis code (version 2G.6), developed originally at the Electronic Research Laboratory of the University of California, Berkeley, to allow it to be used on MSDOS-based, personal computers and to give it two additional circuit elements needed by firing systems--fuses and saturating inductances. An interactive editor and a batch driver have been written to ease the use of the SPICE program by system designers, and the interactive graphical post processor, NUTMEG, supplied by U. C. Berkeley with SPICE version 3B1, has been interfaced to the output from the modified SPICE. Documentation and installation aids have been provided to make the total software system accessible to PC users. Sample problems show that the resulting code is in agreement with the FIRESET code on which the fuse model was based (with some modifications to the dynamics of scaling fuse parameters). In order to allow for more complex simulations of firing systems, studies have been made of additional special circuit elements--switches and ferrite cored inductances. A simple switch model has been investigated which promises to give at least a first approximation to the physical effects of a non ideal switch, and which can be added to the existing SPICE circuits without changing the SPICE code itself. The effect of fast rise time pulses on ferrites has been studied experimentally in order to provide a base for future modeling and incorporation of the dynamic effects of changes in core magnetization into the SPICE code. This report contains detailed accounts of the work on these topics performed during the period it covers, and has appendices listing all source code written documentation produced.

  9. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models

    PubMed Central

    Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T.

    2015-01-01

    Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best “LFP proxy”, we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with “ground-truth” LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo. PMID:26657024

  10. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models.

    PubMed

    Mazzoni, Alberto; Lindén, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T

    2015-12-01

    Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best "LFP proxy", we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with "ground-truth" LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo. PMID:26657024

  11. BPACK -- A computer model package for boiler reburning/co-firing performance evaluations. User`s manual, Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, K.T.; Li, B.; Payne, R.

    1992-06-01

    This manual presents and describes a package of computer models uniquely developed for boiler thermal performance and emissions evaluations by the Energy and Environmental Research Corporation. The model package permits boiler heat transfer, fuels combustion, and pollutant emissions predictions related to a number of practical boiler operations such as fuel-switching, fuels co-firing, and reburning NO{sub x} reductions. The models are adaptable to most boiler/combustor designs and can handle burner fuels in solid, liquid, gaseous, and slurried forms. The models are also capable of performing predictions for combustion applications involving gaseous-fuel reburning, and co-firing of solid/gas, liquid/gas, gas/gas, slurry/gas fuels. The model package is conveniently named as BPACK (Boiler Package) and consists of six computer codes, of which three of them are main computational codes and the other three are input codes. The three main codes are: (a) a two-dimensional furnace heat-transfer and combustion code: (b) a detailed chemical-kinetics code; and (c) a boiler convective passage code. This user`s manual presents the computer model package in two volumes. Volume 1 describes in detail a number of topics which are of general users` interest, including the physical and chemical basis of the models, a complete description of the model applicability, options, input/output, and the default inputs. Volume 2 contains a detailed record of the worked examples to assist users in applying the models, and to illustrate the versatility of the codes.

  12. Forest-fire model with immune trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drossel, B.; Schwabl, F.

    1993-10-01

    We present a generalization of the forest-fire model of P. Bak et al. by including the immunity g which is the probability that a tree is not ignited although one of its neighbors is burning. When g reaches a critical value gc( p), which depends on the tree growth rate p, the fire cannot survive any more, i.e. a continuous phase transition takes place from a steady state with fire to a steady state without fire. We present results of computer simulations and explain them by analytic calculations. The fire spreading at the phase transition represents a new type of percolation which is called “fluctuating site percolation”.

  13. Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modeling with WRF-Fire version 3.3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandel, J.; Beezley, J. D.; Kochanski, A. K.

    2011-03-01

    We describe the physical model, numerical algorithms, and software structure of WRF-Fire. WRF-Fire consists of a fire-spread model, implemented by the level-set method, coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. In every time step, the fire model inputs the surface wind, which drives the fire, and outputs the heat flux from the fire into the atmosphere, which in turn influences the atmosphere. The level-set method allows submesh representation of the burning region and flexible implementation of various kinds of ignition. WRF-Fire is distributed as a part of WRF and it uses the WRF parallel infrastructure for parallel computing.

  14. Description of BRIND, a computer model of succession and fire response of the high altitude Eucalyptus forests of the Brindabella Range, Australian Capital Territory

    SciTech Connect

    Noble, I.R.; Shugart, H.H.; Schauer, J.S.

    1980-04-01

    The BRIND model, a computer model of the high altitude forests in the Brindabella Range near Canberra (Australian Capital Territory), is documented. The BRIND model simulates a 1/12-ha forest stand by computing the growth of each individual tree in the stand. It considers establishment and death of trees on a tree-by-tree basis using stochastic functions. The model also simulates the effects of prescribed fire and wildfire on the forests. The model currently is restricted to southeasterly facing slopes above 850 m in altitude. This report describes the model and documents the program. Testing of the model and the results are dicsussed elsewhere.

  15. Qualitative properties of solutions for the noisy integrate and fire model in computational neuroscience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrillo, José Antonio; Perthame, Benoît; Salort, Delphine; Smets, Didier

    2015-09-01

    The Noisy Integrate-and-Fire equation is a standard non-linear Fokker-Planck equation used to describe the activity of a homogeneous neural network characterized by its connectivity b (each neuron connected to all others through synaptic weights); b  >  0 describes excitatory networks and b  <  0 inhibitory networks. In the excitatory case, it was proved that, once the proportion of neurons that are close to their action potential {{V}\\text{F}} is too high, solutions cannot exist for all times. In this paper, we show a priori uniform bounds in time on the firing rate to discard the scenario of blow-up, and, for small connectivity, we prove qualitative properties on the long time behavior of solutions. The methods are based on the one hand on relative entropy and Poincaré inequalities leading to L2 estimates and on the other hand, on the notion of ‘universal super-solution’ and parabolic regularizing effects to obtain {{L}∞} bounds.

  16. A forest-fire model with natural fire resistance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, M. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Rundle, J. B.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.

    2010-12-01

    It is widely believed that contemporary wildfire suppression practices in the United States have contributed to conditions that facilitate large, destructive fires. We introduce a forest-fire model with natural fire-resistance that supports this theory. The model yields power-law frequency-size distributions of model fires with scaling exponent values 1.2 ≤ b ≤ 1.75, consistent with distributions of wildfires observed in the United States. We show a direct relationship between a fire's intensity and its burn area, and we show that aggressive suppression of small early season fires can compromise a region's natural fire-resistance, increasing the rate of large fires.

  17. Forest-fire model with natural fire resistance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, Mark R.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Rundle, John B.

    2011-04-01

    Observations suggest that contemporary wildfire suppression practices in the United States have contributed to conditions that facilitate large, destructive fires. We introduce a forest-fire model with natural fire resistance that supports this theory. Fire resistance is defined with respect to the size and shape of clusters; the model yields power-law frequency-size distributions of model fires that are consistent with field observations in the United States, Canada, and Australia.

  18. Modelling of fire count data: fire disaster risk in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Boadi, Caleb; Harvey, Simon K; Gyeke-Dako, Agyapomaa

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic dynamics involved in ecological count data require distribution fitting procedures to model and make informed judgments. The study provides empirical research, focused on the provision of an early warning system and a spatial graph that can detect societal fire risks. It offers an opportunity for communities, organizations, risk managers, actuaries and governments to be aware of, and understand fire risks, so that they will increase the direct tackling of the threats posed by fire. Statistical distribution fitting method that best helps identify the stochastic dynamics of fire count data is used. The aim is to provide a fire-prediction model and fire spatial graph for observed fire count data. An empirical probability distribution model is fitted to the fire count data and compared to the theoretical probability distribution of the stochastic process of fire count data. The distribution fitted to the fire frequency count data helps identify the class of models that are exhibited by the fire and provides time leading decisions. The research suggests that fire frequency and loss (fire fatalities) count data in Ghana are best modelled with a Negative Binomial Distribution. The spatial map of observed fire frequency and fatality measured over 5 years (2007-2011) offers in this study a first regional assessment of fire frequency and fire fatality in Ghana. PMID:26702383

  19. Experimental Benchmarking of Fire Modeling Simulations. Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Greiner, Miles; Lopez, Carlos

    2003-10-08

    A series of large-scale fire tests were performed at Sandia National Laboratories to simulate a nuclear waste transport package under severe accident conditions. The test data were used to benchmark and adjust the Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code. CAFE is a computational fluid dynamics fire model that accurately calculates the heat transfer from a large fire to a massive engulfed transport package. CAFE will be used in transport package design studies and risk analyses.

  20. Consequence modeling using the fire dynamics simulator.

    PubMed

    Ryder, Noah L; Sutula, Jason A; Schemel, Christopher F; Hamer, Andrew J; Van Brunt, Vincent

    2004-11-11

    The use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and in particular Large Eddy Simulation (LES) codes to model fires provides an efficient tool for the prediction of large-scale effects that include plume characteristics, combustion product dispersion, and heat effects to adjacent objects. This paper illustrates the strengths of the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), an LES code developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), through several small and large-scale validation runs and process safety applications. The paper presents two fire experiments--a small room fire and a large (15 m diameter) pool fire. The model results are compared to experimental data and demonstrate good agreement between the models and data. The validation work is then extended to demonstrate applicability to process safety concerns by detailing a model of a tank farm fire and a model of the ignition of a gaseous fuel in a confined space. In this simulation, a room was filled with propane, given time to disperse, and was then ignited. The model yields accurate results of the dispersion of the gas throughout the space. This information can be used to determine flammability and explosive limits in a space and can be used in subsequent models to determine the pressure and temperature waves that would result from an explosion. The model dispersion results were compared to an experiment performed by Factory Mutual. Using the above examples, this paper will demonstrate that FDS is ideally suited to build realistic models of process geometries in which large scale explosion and fire failure risks can be evaluated with several distinct advantages over more traditional CFD codes. Namely transient solutions to fire and explosion growth can be produced with less sophisticated hardware (lower cost) than needed for traditional CFD codes (PC type computer verses UNIX workstation) and can be solved for longer time histories (on the order of hundreds of seconds of computed time) with

  1. A computer simulation of aircraft evacuation with fire

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Middleton, V. E.

    1983-01-01

    A computer simulation was developed to assess passenger survival during the post-crash evacuation of a transport category aircraft when fire is a major threat. The computer code, FIREVAC, computes individual passenger exit paths and times to exit, taking into account delays and congestion caused by the interaction among the passengers and changing cabin conditions. Simple models for the physiological effects of the toxic cabin atmosphere are included with provision for including more sophisticated models as they become available. Both wide-body and standard-body aircraft may be simulated. Passenger characteristics are assigned stochastically from experimentally derived distributions. Results of simulations of evacuation trials and hypothetical evacuations under fire conditions are presented.

  2. Simulating the impacts of fire: A computer program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ffolliott, Peter F.; Guertin, D. Phillip; Rasmussen, William D.

    1988-11-01

    Recurrent fire has played a dominant role in the ecology of southwestern ponderosa pine forests. To assess the benefits or losses of fire in these forests, a computer simulation model, called BURN, considers vegetation (mortality, regeneration, and production of herbaceous vegetation), wildlife (populations and habitats), and hydrology (streamflow and water quality). In the formulation of the model, graphical representations (time-trend response curves) of increases or losses (compared to an unburned control) after the occurrence of fire are converted to fixedterm annual ratios, and then annuities for the simulation components. Annuity values higher than 1.0 indicate benefits, while annuity values lower than 1.0 indicate losses. Studies in southwestern ponderosa pine forests utilized in the development of BURN are described briefly.

  3. Computer simulation of heat transfer mechanism in SRC-I slurry fired heater

    SciTech Connect

    Mehta, D.C.; Fox, V.G.; Weimer, R.F.

    1984-05-01

    A computer simulation of the heat transfer mechanism was performed for the slurry fired heater in the SRC-I Demonstration Plant. The operating conditions were based on the fired heater design, and the data on pressure drop, slug characteristics, and heat transfer were obtained from the cold-flow modelling experiments at Creare, Inc. The computer program solves the partial differential equation describing heat transfer in the fired heater pipe. 7 references, 6 figures, 5 tables.

  4. INTEGRATED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL FOR COAL-FIRED UTILITY BOILERS: A COMPUTER MODEL APPROACH FOR DESIGN AND COST-ESTIMATING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper describes the Integrated Air Pollution Control System (IAPCS), a computerized program that can be used to estimate the cost and performance of pre-combustion, in situ, and post-combustion air pollution control configurations in pulverized-coal-fired utility boilers of 1...

  5. A Wildland Fire Physical Model Well Suited to Data Assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferragut, L.; Asensio, M. I.; Cascón, J. M.; Prieto, D.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we focus on a simplified two-dimensional fire model with some three-dimensional effects. The model takes into account the moisture content and the energy lost in the vertical direction and to radiation from the flames. We couple this model with a local wind model, well adapted to fire modelling. The topography, fuel type, mass fraction of the fuel and the meteorological data required by the model (temperature, humidity and wind) are provided by geographic information systems. We incorporate data assimilation techniques to our fire model in order to improve the approximations obtained with the model. The data assimilated are the temperature of the solid fuel (which is related to the position of the fire front) and the mass fraction of fuel at certain points in the domain. The numerical examples show that this procedure is able to correct the approximations obtained by the model simulations, providing more realistic predictions. The process is implemented using parallel computing.

  6. Representation of fires and fire emissions in global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pechony, O.; Shindell, D. T.

    2009-12-01

    Wildfires influence global climate through emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and aerosol precursors. There is therefore an ongoing effort to incorporate representation of wildfires in climate models. We have developed an algorithm that allows determination of worldwide flammability conditions from vegetation density and a set of meteorological parameters: precipitation, relative humidity, and temperature. These parameters are readily available, and are well verified on a global scale. Given a distribution of ignition sources, this method provides the distribution of fire counts, which is easily verified against satellite records. Further, using techniques commonly applied to satellite data, modeled fire counts are used to estimate variations in fire emissions. We use two ignition source models: one incorporates anthropogenic and lightning ignitions, and anthropogenic fire suppression; the other assumes ubiquitous ignition source. We evaluate the model using GPCP precipitation, NCEP/NCAR temperature and relative humidity, and MODIS Leaf Area Index as a proxy for global vegetation density. Information on global lightning distribution is derived from the OTD satellite sensor. For estimating the number of anthropogenic ignition sources, we incorporate the Venevsky et al. [2002] method. Effectiveness of fire suppression is assumed to increase exponentially with increasing population density. With both ignition models the algorithm reproduces the spatial distribution and the seasonal variations of global fires observed with MODIS and VIRS satellite instruments reasonably well. Accounting for anthropogenic influence has a profound advantage in heavily populated areas, where anthropogenic effects dominate. Global monthly carbon fire emissions, estimated from modeled fire counts using emissions-per-firecount maps derived by van der Werf et al. [2006], are in good correspondence with GFED estimates. The ability of the model to reproduce long-term interannual

  7. Mitigating Large Fires in Drossel-Schwabl Forest Fire Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, M.; Turcotte, D.; Rundle, J.; Morein, G.

    2008-12-01

    We employ variations of the traditional Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Models (FFM) to study wildfire dynamics. The traditional FFM produces a very robust power law distribution of events, as a function of size, with frequency-size slope very close to -1. Observed data from Australia, the US and northern Mexico suggest that real wild fires closely follow power laws in frequency size with slopes ranging from close to -2 to -1.3 (B.D. Malamud et al. 2005). We suggest two models that, by fracturing and trimming large clusters, reduce the number of large fires while maintaining scale invariance. These fracturing and trimming processes can be justified in terms of real physical processes. For each model, we achieve slopes in the frequency-size relation ranging from approximately -1.77 to -1.06.

  8. Computer simulation of the fire-tube boiler hydrodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khaustov, Sergei A.; Zavorin, Alexander S.; Buvakov, Konstantin V.; Sheikin, Vyacheslav A.

    2015-01-01

    Finite element method was used for simulating the hydrodynamics of fire-tube boiler with the ANSYS Fluent 12.1.4 engineering simulation software. Hydrodynamic structure and volumetric temperature distribution were calculated. The results are presented in graphical form. Complete geometric model of the fire-tube boiler based on boiler drawings was considered. Obtained results are suitable for qualitative analysis of hydrodynamics and singularities identification in fire-tube boiler water shell.

  9. Nuclear Facilities Fire Accident Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1999-09-01

    4. NATURE OF PROBLEM SOLVED FIRAC predicts fire-induced flows, thermal and material transport, and radioactive and nonradioactive source terms in a ventilation system. It is designed to predict the radioactive and nonradioactive source terms that lead to gas dynamic, material transport, and heat transfer transients. FIRAC's capabilities are directed toward nuclear fuel cycle facilities and the primary release pathway, the ventilation system. However, it is applicable to other facilities and can be used to modelmore » other airflow pathways within a structure. The basic material transport capability of FIRAC includes estimates of entrainment, convection, deposition, and filtration of material. The interrelated effects of filter plugging, heat transfer, and gas dynamics are also simulated. A ventilation system model includes elements such as filters, dampers, ducts, and blowers connected at nodal points to form networks. A zone-type compartment fire model is incorporated to simulate fire-induced transients within a facility. 5. METHOD OF SOLUTION FIRAC solves one-dimensional, lumped-parameter, compressible flow equations by an implicit numerical scheme. The lumped-parameter method is the basic formulation that describes the gas dynamics system. No spatial distribution of parameters is considered in this approach, but an effect of spatial distribution can be approximated by noding. Network theory, using the lumped parameter method, includes a number of system elements, called branches, joined at certain points, called nodes. Ventilation system components that exhibit flow resistance and inertia, such as dampers, ducts, valves, and filters, and those that exhibit flow potential, such as blowers, are located within the branches of the system. The connection points of branches are nodes for components that have finite volumes, such as rooms, gloveboxes, and plenums, and for boundaries where the volume is practically infinite. All internal nodes, therefore, possess some

  10. Users manual for CAFE-3D : a computational fluid dynamics fire code.

    SciTech Connect

    Khalil, Imane; Lopez, Carlos; Suo-Anttila, Ahti Jorma

    2005-03-01

    The Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code has been developed to model all relevant fire physics for predicting the thermal response of massive objects engulfed in large fires. It provides realistic fire thermal boundary conditions for use in design of radioactive material packages and in risk-based transportation studies. The CAFE code can be coupled to commercial finite-element codes such as MSC PATRAN/THERMAL and ANSYS. This coupled system of codes can be used to determine the internal thermal response of finite element models of packages to a range of fire environments. This document is a user manual describing how to use the three-dimensional version of CAFE, as well as a description of CAFE input and output parameters. Since this is a user manual, only a brief theoretical description of the equations and physical models is included.

  11. Calculation of shipboard fire conditions for radioactive materials packages with the methods of computational fluid dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Koski, J.A.; Wix, S.D.; Cole, J.K.

    1997-09-01

    Shipboard fires both in the same ship hold and in an adjacent hold aboard a break-bulk cargo ship are simulated with a commercial finite-volume computational fluid mechanics code. The fire models and modeling techniques are described and discussed. Temperatures and heat fluxes to a simulated materials package are calculated and compared to experimental values. The overall accuracy of the calculations is assessed.

  12. Stochastic cellular automata model for wildland fire spread dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maduro Almeida, Rodolfo; Macau, Elbert E. N.

    2011-03-01

    A stochastic cellular automata model for wildland fire spread under flat terrain and no-wind conditions is proposed and its dynamics is characterized and analyzed. One of three possible states characterizes each cell: vegetation cell, burning cell and burnt cell. The dynamics of fire spread is modeled as a stochastic event with an effective fire spread probability S which is a function of three probabilities that characterize: the proportion of vegetation cells across the lattice, the probability of a burning cell becomes burnt, and the probability of the fire spread from a burning cell to a neighboring vegetation cell. A set of simulation experiments is performed to analyze the effects of different values of the three probabilities in the fire pattern. Monte-Carlo simulations indicate that there is a critical line in the model parameter space that separates the set of parameters which a fire can propagate from those for which it cannot propagate. Finally, the relevance of the model is discussed under the light of computational experiments that illustrate the capability of the model catches both the dynamical and static qualitative properties of fire propagation.

  13. Fire and materials modeling for transportation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Skocypec, R.D.; Gritzo, L.A.; Moya, J.L.; Nicolette, V.F.; Tieszen, S.R.; Thomas, R.

    1994-10-01

    Fire is an important threat to the safety of transportation systems. Therefore, understanding the effects of fire (and its interaction with materials) on transportation systems is crucial to quantifying and mitigating the impact of fire on the safety of those systems. Research and development directed toward improving the fire safety of transportation systems must address a broad range of phenomena and technologies, including: crash dynamics, fuel dispersion, fire environment characterization, material characterization, and system/cargo thermal response modeling. In addition, if the goal of the work is an assessment and/or reduction of risk due to fires, probabilistic risk assessment technology is also required. The research currently underway at Sandia National Laboratories in each of these areas is summarized in this paper.

  14. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  15. Validation of coupled atmosphere-fire behavior models

    SciTech Connect

    Bossert, J.E.; Reisner, J.M.; Linn, R.R.; Winterkamp, J.L.; Schaub, R.; Riggan, P.J.

    1998-12-31

    Recent advances in numerical modeling and computer power have made it feasible to simulate the dynamical interaction and feedback between the heat and turbulence induced by wildfires and the local atmospheric wind and temperature fields. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, the authors have developed a modeling system that includes this interaction by coupling a high resolution atmospheric dynamics model, HIGRAD, with a fire behavior model, BEHAVE, to predict the spread of wildfires. The HIGRAD/BEHAVE model is run at very high resolution to properly resolve the fire/atmosphere interaction. At present, these coupled wildfire model simulations are computationally intensive. The additional complexity of these models require sophisticated methods for assuring their reliability in real world applications. With this in mind, a substantial part of the research effort is directed at model validation. Several instrumented prescribed fires have been conducted with multi-agency support and participation from chaparral, marsh, and scrub environments in coastal areas of Florida and inland California. In this paper, the authors first describe the data required to initialize the components of the wildfire modeling system. Then they present results from one of the Florida fires, and discuss a strategy for further testing and improvement of coupled weather/wildfire models.

  16. Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

  17. DEVELOPMENT OF COMPUTER PROGRAM FOR FIRE SUPPRESSANT FLUID FLOW.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objective of the project is to develop a computer code capable of predicting single and two phase hydrodynamic behavior of fire suppressant fluids during transport through piping systems. This new code will be able to predict pressure losses and flow rates for a wide variety ...

  18. Modeling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prentice, I. C.; Kelley, D. I.; Foster, P. N.; Friedlingstein, P.; Harrison, S. P.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2011-09-01

    Four CO2 concentration inversions and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) versions 2.1 and 3 are used to provide benchmarks for climate-driven modeling of the global land-atmosphere CO2 flux and the contribution of wildfire to this flux. The Land surface Processes and exchanges (LPX) model is introduced. LPX is based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Spread and Intensity of FIRE (LPJ-SPITFIRE) model with amended fire probability calculations. LPX omits human ignition sources yet simulates many aspects of global fire adequately. It captures the major features of observed geographic pattern in burnt area and its seasonal timing and the unimodal relationship of burnt area to precipitation. It simulates features of geographic variation in the sign of the interannual correlations of burnt area with antecedent dryness and precipitation. It simulates well the interannual variability of the global total land-atmosphere CO2 flux. There are differences among the global burnt area time series from GFED2.1, GFED3 and LPX, but some features are common to all. GFED3 fire CO2 fluxes account for only about 1/3 of the variation in total CO2 flux during 1997-2005. This relationship appears to be dominated by the strong climatic dependence of deforestation fires. The relationship of LPX-modeled fire CO2 fluxes to total CO2 fluxes is weak. Observed and modeled total CO2 fluxes track the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) closely; GFED3 burnt area and global fire CO2 flux track the ENSO much less so. The GFED3 fire CO2 flux-ENSO connection is most prominent for the El Niño of 1997-1998, which produced exceptional burning conditions in several regions, especially equatorial Asia. The sign of the observed relationship between ENSO and fire varies regionally, and LPX captures the broad features of this variation. These complexities underscore the need for process-based modeling to assess the consequences of global change for fire and its implications for the carbon cycle.

  19. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  20. Fire modeling of the Heiss Dampf Reaktor containment

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolette, V.F.; Yang, K.T.

    1995-09-01

    This report summarizes Sandia National Laboratories` participation in the fire modeling activities for the German Heiss Dampf Reaktor (HDR) containment building, under the sponsorship of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The purpose of this report is twofold: (1) to summarize Sandia`s participation in the HDR fire modeling efforts and (2) to summarize the results of the international fire modeling community involved in modeling the HDR fire tests. Additional comments, on the state of fire modeling and trends in the international fire modeling community are also included. It is noted that, although the trend internationally in fire modeling is toward the development of the more complex fire field models, each type of fire model has something to contribute to the understanding of fires in nuclear power plants.

  1. MODELING VENTILATION SYSTEM RESPONSE TO FIRE

    SciTech Connect

    Coutts, D

    2007-04-17

    Fires in facilities containing nuclear material have the potential to transport radioactive contamination throughout buildings and may lead to widespread downwind dispersal threatening both worker and public safety. Development and implementation of control strategies capable of providing adequate protection from fire requires realistic characterization of ventilation system response which, in turn, depends on an understanding of fire development timing and suppression system response. This paper discusses work in which published HEPA filter data was combined with CFAST fire modeling predictions to evaluate protective control strategies for a hypothetical DOE non-reactor nuclear facility. The purpose of this effort was to evaluate when safety significant active ventilation coupled with safety class passive ventilation might be a viable control strategy.

  2. Fire modeling in the Brazilian arc of deforestation through nested coupling of atmosphere, dynamic vegetation, LUCC and fire spread models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tourigny, E.; Nobre, C.; Cardoso, M. F.

    2012-12-01

    Deforestation of tropical forests for logging and agriculture, associated to slash-and-burn practices, is a major source of CO2 emissions, both immediate due to biomass burning and future due to the elimination of a potential CO2 sink. Feedbacks between climate change and LUCC (Land-Use and Land-Cover Change) can potentially increase the loss of tropical forests and increase the rate of CO2 emissions, through mechanisms such as land and soil degradation and the increase in wildfire occurrence and severity. However, current understanding of the processes of fires (including ignition, spread and consequences) in tropical forests and climatic feedbacks are poorly understood and need further research. As the processes of LUCC and associated fires occur at local scales, linking them to large-scale atmospheric processes requires a means of up-scaling higher resolutions processes to lower resolutions. Our approach is to couple models which operate at various spatial and temporal scales: a Global Climate Model (GCM), Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) and local-scale LUCC and fire spread model. The climate model resolves large scale atmospheric processes and forcings, which are imposed on the surface DGVM and fed-back to climate. Higher-resolution processes such as deforestation, land use management and associated (as well as natural) fires are resolved at the local level. A dynamic tiling scheme allows to represent local-scale heterogeneity while maintaining computational efficiency of the land surface model, compared to traditional landscape models. Fire behavior is modeled at the regional scale (~500m) to represent the detailed landscape using a semi-empirical fire spread model. The relatively coarse scale (as compared to other fire spread models) is necessary due to the paucity of detailed land-cover information and fire history (particularly in the tropics and developing countries). This work presents initial results of a spatially-explicit fire spread model

  3. Fire aerosol experiment and comparisons with computer code predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregory, W. S.; Nichols, B. D.; White, B. W.; Smith, P. R.; Leslie, I. H.; Corkran, J. R.

    1988-08-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory, in cooperation with New Mexico State University, has carried on a series of tests to provide experimental data on fire-generated aerosol transport. These data will be used to verify the aerosol transport capabilities of the FIRAC computer code. FIRAC was developed by Los Alamos for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. It is intended to be used by safety analysts to evaluate the effects of hypothetical fires on nuclear plants. One of the most significant aspects of this analysis deals with smoke and radioactive material movement throughout the plant. The tests have been carried out using an industrial furnace that can generate gas temperatures to 300 C. To date, we have used quartz aerosol with a median diameter of about 10 microns as the fire aerosol simulant. We also plan to use fire-generated aerosols of polystyrene and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). The test variables include two nominal gas flow rates (150 and 300 cu ft/min) and three nominal gas temperatures (ambient, 150 C, and 300 C). The test results are presented in the form of plots of aerosol deposition vs length of duct. In addition, the mass of aerosol caught in a high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter during the tests is reported. The tests are simulated with the FIRAC code, and the results are compared with the experimental data.

  4. Analysis of NASA JP-4 fire tests data and development of a simple fire model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raj, P.

    1980-01-01

    The temperature, velocity and species concentration data obtained during the NASA fire tests (3m, 7.5m and 15m diameter JP-4 fires) were analyzed. Utilizing the data analysis, a sample theoretical model was formulated to predict the temperature and velocity profiles in JP-4 fires. The theoretical model, which does not take into account the detailed chemistry of combustion, is capable of predicting the extent of necking of the fire near its base.

  5. Large fire emissions in summer over the southeastern US: Satellite measurements and modeling analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Tao; Liu, Zhen; Wang, Yuhang

    2016-02-01

    We apply satellite fire detection products and air quality modeling to study the contribution of fire emissions to ambient aerosol concentrations over the southeastern U.S. We find that satellite MODIS fire counts show more extensive summer burnings than suggested by the bottom-up fire inventory VISTAS in the summer of 2002. We develop a hybrid emission inventory that combines information from satellite fire counts and the bottom-up inventory by scaling the data of top-down fire count in the other months with its ratio to the bottom-up burned area data in March, the month of most prescribed burning in the Southeast in 2002. Such computed burned areas in summer are higher than the bottom-up inventory in summer; the increase of fire emissions is spatially allocated over satellite observed fire pixels based on the spatial distribution of fuel loading. We show that the updated fire emission inventory leads to notably improved CMAQ model performance of OC, EC and PM2.5, in the Southeast on a regional basis, with reduced model low bias in the summer and better agreement with the observed seasonality. Our study suggests that missing fire emissions in bottom-up inventories can partially explain the underestimated concentrations of PM2.5, OC and EC in the Southeast and demonstrates that satellite fire detection can help improve our understanding of fire emissions and their impact on air quality.

  6. Assessing skill of operational forest fire emissions model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-10-01

    Across the continental United States, the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework provides hourly forest fire emissions forecasts and calculates the concentrations of hazardous compounds 72 hours in advance. Though a traditional computational model itself, the BlueSky Framework pulls together the results from a number of different independent models for fire and fuel information, combustion of fuel, and speciated emissions calculations to produce its operational forecasts of fire-related emissions and smoke dispersals. One aspect of forest fire emissions that is of particular concern is small particulate matter, particularly microscopic particles with diameters less than 2.5 micrometers. These particles, known as PM2.5, are small enough to penetrate lung tissue and cause serious health problems in high concentrations. To assess the skill of the BlueSky Gateway, a system that uses the BlueSky Framework and the Community MultiScale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to forecast PM2.5 surface concentrations, Strand et al. compared the modeled estimates for two Californian forest wildfire events against observations.

  7. An experimental and modeling study of fires in ventilated ducts. Part 2: PMMA and stratification

    SciTech Connect

    Comitis, S.C.; Glasser, D.; Young, B.D.

    1996-01-01

    A theoretical and experimental treatment of fire processes in horizontal, ventilated passages, containing an axial distribution of fuel, is presented. Experiments for radially well-mixed flows are performed where gas temperature histories and fire-shaped solid fuel mass axial distributions are acquired from polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA)-fueled fires. The theory developed in part 1 is able to quantitatively model all the experimental results for PMMA fires. In particular, the solid fuel profiles (axial distributions) are modeled from gas-phase information alone. To assess the concept of an ignition temperature as a controlling mechanism for growth a brief fire growth analysis is also performed. A simple approach to study fires in stratified flow conditions is also presented. In conjunction with small-scale experiments on liquid-fueled fires it is shown that a modified one-dimensional model, requiring minimal computational effort, may be used to describe fire-front histories and the temperature profile of the fire plume. Both nonstratified and severely stratified fires display a direct dependence of the steady fire propagation speed with ventilation rate and inverse dependence with initial fuel mass loading. A general model requires a knowledge of the degree of stratification and mixing, in advance of experimentation. A new correlation for stratification using fuel/duct properties and air velocity is proposed as a means of predicting flow regimes.

  8. Models for computing combat risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jelinek, Jan

    2002-07-01

    Combat always involves uncertainty and uncertainty entails risk. To ensure that a combat task is prosecuted with the desired probability of success, the task commander has to devise an appropriate task force and then adjust it continuously in the course of battle. In order to do so, he has to evaluate how the probability of task success is related to the structure, capabilities and numerical strengths of combatants. For this purpose, predictive models of combat dynamics for combats in which the combatants fire asynchronously at random instants are developed from the first principles. Combats involving forces with both unlimited and limited ammunition supply are studied and modeled by stochastic Markov processes. In addition to the Markov models, another class of models first proposed by Brown was explored. The models compute directly the probability of win, in which we are primarily interested, without integrating the state probability equations. Experiments confirm that they produce exactly the same results at much lower computational cost.

  9. Comparing fire severity models from post-fire and pre/post-fire differenced imagery

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Wildland fires are common in rangelands worldwide. The potential for high severity fires to affect long-term changes in rangelands is considerable, and for this reason assessing fire severity shortly after the fire is critical. Such assessments are typically carried out following Burned Area Emergen...

  10. Using burned area data to explore fire spread in coupled fire and ecosystem models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomez-Dans, J. L.; Lewis, P.; Wooster, M.; Spessa, A.

    2009-04-01

    Fire is a major driver of change in many ecosystems, and ecosystem models should try to understand and model the feedbacks between vegetation and fire. To achieve this, work has started on coupling fire and ecosystem models. The fire model receives modelled vegetation as input for its fuel loads, and simulates ignitions and fire spread from a number of assumptions on fire processes. The fire model simulates fire behaviour, and also estimates how vegetation is killed by the fire. This disturbance is fed back into the ecosystem model. In the current work, we focus on the LPJ ecosystem model and on the SPITFIRE fire model. Both models haven been used in conjunction in the past to model emissions over Southern Africa. SPITFIRE makes assumptions about ignitions (either anthropogenic or due to lightning strikes), live fuel moisture, fuel load and type derived from the ecosystem model, and about fire dynamics. In a typical run at daily temporal resolution, SPITFIRE will simulate an "average fire" in terms of fire dynamics, which is combined with the estimated daily number of ignitions to calculate the burned area on that day. The use of an average fire simplifies modelling at the coarse resolutions (grid cell spacing is often around 0.5 - 1 °) often used in these studies, but the associated penalty of a number of important fire limiting factors, such as human-driven suppression efforts or landscape elements that act as fire blocks. In the current study, we aim to explore landscape fragmentation in fire spread. To this end, we compare LPJ+SPITFIRE simulations fire area distributions with actual fire area observations from spaceborne sensors over a large region in Southern Africa. We introduce the concept of "landscape impedance", a metric that describes the difficulty of a fire spreading due to fragmentation, and estimate it spatially using satellite data. Finally, we introduce these concepts into the SPITFIRE fire model. Recently, burned area data from the MODIS sensor

  11. Modeling thermal protection outfits for fire exposures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Guowen

    2002-01-01

    A numerical model has been developed that successfully predicts heat transfer through thermally protective clothing materials and garments exposed to intense heat. The model considers the effect of fire exposure to the thermophysical properties of materials as well as the air layers between the clothing material and skin surface. These experiments involved characterizing the flash fire surrounding the manikin by measuring the temperature of the flame above each thermal sensor in the manikin surface. An estimation method is used to calculate the heat transfer coefficient for each thermal sensor in a 4 second exposure to an average heat flux of 2.00cal/cm2sec. A parameter estimation method was used to estimate heat induced change in fabric thermophysical properties. The skin-clothe air gap distribution of different garments was determined using three-dimensional body scanning technology. Multi-layer skin model and a burn prediction method were used to predict second and third degree burns. The integrated generalized model developed was validated using the "Pyroman" Thermal Protective Clothing Analysis System with Kevlar/PBIRTM and NomexRTMIIIA coverall garments with different configuration and exposure time. A parametric study conducted using this numerical model indicated the influencing parameters on garment thermal protective performance in terms of skin burn damage subjected to 4 second flash fire exposure. The importance of these parameters is analyzed and distinguished. These parameters includes fabric thermophysical properties, PyromanRTM chamber flash fire characteristics, garment shrinkage and fit factors, as well as garment initial and test ambient temperature. Different skin models and their influence on burn prediction were also investigated using this model.

  12. Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C.

    2015-01-01

    Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect. PMID:26190905

  13. Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

    2015-01-01

    Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition. PMID:25679957

  14. Application of a Mesoscale Atmospheric Coupled Fire Model BRAMS-FIRE to Alentejo Woodland Fire and Comparison of Performance with the Fire Model WRF-Sfire.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freitas, S. R.; Menezes, I. C.; Stockler, R.; Mello, R.; Ribeiro, N. A.; Corte-Real, J. A. M.; Surový, P.

    2014-12-01

    Models of fuel with the identification of vegetation patterns of Montado ecosystem in Portugal was incorporated in the mesoscale Brazilian Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and coupled with a spread woodland fire model. The BRAMS-FIRE is a new system developed by the "Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos" (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil) and the "Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrâneas" (ICAAM, Portugal). The fire model used in this effort was originally, developed by Mandel et al. (2013) and further incorporated in the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Two grids of high spatial resolution were configured with surface input data and fuel models integrated for simulations using both models BRAMS-FIRE and WRF-SFIRE. One grid was placed in the plain land near Beja and the other one in the hills of Ossa to evaluate different types of fire propagation and calibrate BRAMS-FIRE. The objective is simulating the effects of atmospheric circulation in local scale, namely the movements of the heat front and energy release associated to it, obtained by this two models in an episode of woodland fire which took place in Alentejo area in the last decade, for application to planning and evaluations of agro woodland fire risks. We aim to model the behavior of forest fires through a set of equations whose solutions provide quantitative values of one or more variables related to the propagation of fire, described by semi-empirical expressions that are complemented by experimental data allow to obtain the main variables related advancing the perimeter of the fire, as the propagation speed, the intensity of the fire front and fuel consumption and its interaction with atmospheric dynamic system. References Mandel, J., J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, and M. Vejmelka, 2013. New features in WRF-SFIRE and the wildfire forecasting and danger system in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, submitted

  15. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  16. Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure

    PubMed Central

    Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G.; Gauthier, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity. PMID:26919456

  17. Computer Self-Efficacy, Competitive Anxiety and Flow State: Escaping from Firing Online Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hong, Jon-Chao; Pei-Yu, Chiu; Shih, Hsiao-Feng; Lin, Pei-Shin; Hong, Jon-Chao

    2012-01-01

    Flow state in game playing affected by computer self-efficacy and game competitive anxiety was studied. In order to examine the effect of those constructs with high competition, this study select "Escaping from firing online game" which require college students to escape from fire and rescue people and eliminate the fire damage along the way of…

  18. Underground Coal-Fires in Xinjiang, China: Assessment of Fire Dynamics from Surface Measurements and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuttke, Manfred W.; Zeng, Qiang; Tanner, David C.; Halisch, Matthias; Cai, Zhong-yong; Wang, Chunli

    2013-04-01

    Spontaneous uncontrolled coal seam fires are a well known phenomenon that causes severe environmental problems and severe impact on natural coal reserves. Coal fires are a worldwide phenomenon, but in particular in Xinjiang, that covers 17.3 % of Chinas area and hosts approx 42 % of its coal resources. The Xinjiang Coalfield Fire Fighting Bureau (XJCFB) has developed technologies and methods to deal with any known fire. Many fires have been extinguished already, but the problem is still there if not even growing. This problem is not only a problem for China due to the loss of valuable energy resources, but it is also a worldwide threat because of the generation of substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. In this contribution we describe the latest results from a new conjoint project between China and Germany where on the basis of field investigations and laboratory measurements realistic dynamical models of fire-zones are constructed to increase the understanding of particular coal-fires, to interpret the surface signatures of the coal-fire in terms of location and propagation and to estimate the output of hazardous exhaust products to evaluate the economic benefit of fire extinction. For two exemplary fire-locations, coarse digital terrain models have been produced. These models serve as basis for a detailed surface exploration by terrestrial laser scanning which shall deliver a detailed fracture inventory. Samples of rock and coal have been taken in the field and are characterized in LIAG's petrophysical laboratory in terms of transport properties. All these data serve as input for our detailed numerical fire models. Repeated measurements of the surface changes together with thermal images reveal the dynamics of fire propagation. The numerical models are calibrated by such data and can later be used to quantify the emissions from such a fire zone.

  19. Fire frequency in the Interior Columbia River Basin: Building regional models from fire history data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D.L.; Agee, James K.

    2000-01-01

    Fire frequency affects vegetation composition and successional pathways; thus it is essential to understand fire regimes in order to manage natural resources at broad spatial scales. Fire history data are lacking for many regions for which fire management decisions are being made, so models are needed to estimate past fire frequency where local data are not yet available. We developed multiple regression models and tree-based (classification and regression tree, or CART) models to predict fire return intervals across the interior Columbia River basin at 1-km resolution, using georeferenced fire history, potential vegetation, cover type, and precipitation databases. The models combined semiqualitative methods and rigorous statistics. The fire history data are of uneven quality; some estimates are based on only one tree, and many are not cross-dated. Therefore, we weighted the models based on data quality and performed a sensitivity analysis of the effects on the models of estimation errors that are due to lack of cross-dating. The regression models predict fire return intervals from 1 to 375 yr for forested areas, whereas the tree-based models predict a range of 8 to 150 yr. Both types of models predict latitudinal and elevational gradients of increasing fire return intervals. Examination of regional-scale output suggests that, although the tree-based models explain more of the variation in the original data, the regression models are less likely to produce extrapolation errors. Thus, the models serve complementary purposes in elucidating the relationships among fire frequency, the predictor variables, and spatial scale. The models can provide local managers with quantitative information and provide data to initialize coarse-scale fire-effects models, although predictions for individual sites should be treated with caution because of the varying quality and uneven spatial coverage of the fire history database. The models also demonstrate the integration of

  20. CAFE: A Computer Tool for Accurate Simulation of the Regulatory Pool Fire Environment for Type B Packages

    SciTech Connect

    Gritzo, L.A.; Koski, J.A.; Suo-Anttila, A.J.

    1999-03-16

    The Container Analysis Fire Environment computer code (CAFE) is intended to provide Type B package designers with an enhanced engulfing fire boundary condition when combined with the PATRAN/P-Thermal commercial code. Historically an engulfing fire boundary condition has been modeled as {sigma}T{sup 4} where {sigma} is the Stefan-Boltzman constant, and T is the fire temperature. The CAFE code includes the necessary chemistry, thermal radiation, and fluid mechanics to model an engulfing fire. Effects included are the local cooling of gases that form a protective boundary layer that reduces the incoming radiant heat flux to values lower than expected from a simple {sigma}T{sup 4} model. In addition, the effect of object shape on mixing that may increase the local fire temperature is included. Both high and low temperature regions that depend upon the local availability of oxygen are also calculated. Thus the competing effects that can both increase and decrease the local values of radiant heat flux are included in a reamer that is not predictable a-priori. The CAFE package consists of a group of computer subroutines that can be linked to workstation-based thermal analysis codes in order to predict package performance during regulatory and other accident fire scenarios.

  1. Pediatric Computational Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soni, Bharat K.; Kim, Jong-Eun; Ito, Yasushi; Wagner, Christina D.; Yang, King-Hay

    A computational model is a computer program that attempts to simulate a behavior of a complex system by solving mathematical equations associated with principles and laws of physics. Computational models can be used to predict the body's response to injury-producing conditions that cannot be simulated experimentally or measured in surrogate/animal experiments. Computational modeling also provides means by which valid experimental animal and cadaveric data can be extrapolated to a living person. Widely used computational models for injury biomechanics include multibody dynamics and finite element (FE) models. Both multibody and FE methods have been used extensively to study adult impact biomechanics in the past couple of decades.

  2. On the capabilities and computational costs of neuron models.

    PubMed

    Skocik, Michael J; Long, Lyle N

    2014-08-01

    We review the Hodgkin-Huxley, Izhikevich, and leaky integrate-and-fire neuron models in regular spiking modes solved with the forward Euler, fourth-order Runge-Kutta, and exponential Euler methods and determine the necessary time steps and corresponding computational costs required to make the solutions accurate. We conclude that the leaky integrate-and-fire needs the least number of computations, and that the Hodgkin-Huxley and Izhikevich models are comparable in computational cost. PMID:25050945

  3. Comparing modelled fire dynamics with charcoal records for the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brücher, Tim; Brovkin, Victor; Kloster, Silvia; Marlon, Jennifer; Power, Mitch

    2014-05-01

    An Earth System model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, and land surface model JSBACH that includes dynamic vegetation, carbon cycle, and fire regime are used for simulation of natural fire dynamics through the last 8,000 years. To compare the fire model results with the charcoal reconstructions, several output variables of the fire model (burned area, carbon emissions) and several approaches of model output processing are tested. The z-scores out of charcoal dataset have been calculated for the period 8,000 to 200 BP to exclude a period of strong anthropogenic forcing during the last two centuries. The model analysis points mainly to an increasing fire activity during the Holocene for most of the investigated areas, which is in good correspondence to reconstructed fire trends out of charcoal data for most of the tested regions, while for few regions such as Europe the simulated trend and the reconstructed trends are different. The difference between the modeled and reconstructed fire activity could be due to absence of the anthropogenic forcing in the model simulations, but also due to limitations of model assumptions for modeling fire dynamics. For the model trends, the usage of averaging or z-score processing of model output resulted in similar directions of trend. Therefore, the approach of fire model output processing does not effect results of the model-data comparison. Global fire modeling is still in its infancy; improving our representations of fire through validation exercises such as what we present here is thus essential before testing hypotheses about the effects of extreme climate changes on fire behavior and potential feedbacks that result from those changes. Brücher, T., Brovkin, V., Kloster, S., Marlon, J. R., and Power, M. J.: Comparing modelled fire dynamics with charcoal records for the Holocene, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 6429-6458, doi:10.5194/cpd-9-6429-2013, 2013.

  4. Modelling Fire Frequency in a Cerrado Savanna Protected Area

    PubMed Central

    Pereira Júnior, Alfredo C.; Oliveira, Sofia L. J.; Pereira, José M. C.; Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral

    2014-01-01

    Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world’s most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997–2008) for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area maps derived from Landsat imagery. Burned areas were classified using object based image analysis. Fire data were modelled with the discrete lognormal model and the estimated parameters were used to calculate fire interval, fire survival and hazard of burning distributions, for seven major land cover types. Over the study period, an area equivalent to four times the size of Jalapão State Park burned and the mean annual area burned was 34%. Median fire intervals were generally short, ranging from three to six years. Shrub savannas had the shortest fire intervals, and dense woodlands the longest. Because fires in the Cerrado are strongly responsive to fuel age in the first three to four years following a fire, early dry season patch mosaic burning may be used to reduce the extent of area burned and the severity of fire effects. PMID:25054540

  5. Modelling fire frequency in a Cerrado savanna protected area.

    PubMed

    Pereira Júnior, Alfredo C; Oliveira, Sofia L J; Pereira, José M C; Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral

    2014-01-01

    Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world's most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997-2008) for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area maps derived from Landsat imagery. Burned areas were classified using object based image analysis. Fire data were modelled with the discrete lognormal model and the estimated parameters were used to calculate fire interval, fire survival and hazard of burning distributions, for seven major land cover types. Over the study period, an area equivalent to four times the size of Jalapão State Park burned and the mean annual area burned was 34%. Median fire intervals were generally short, ranging from three to six years. Shrub savannas had the shortest fire intervals, and dense woodlands the longest. Because fires in the Cerrado are strongly responsive to fuel age in the first three to four years following a fire, early dry season patch mosaic burning may be used to reduce the extent of area burned and the severity of fire effects. PMID:25054540

  6. Large urban fire environment. Trends and model city predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Larson, D.A.; Small, R.D.

    1982-01-01

    The urban fire environment that would result from a megaton-yield nuclear weapon burst is considered. The dependence of temperatures and velocities on fire size, burning intensity, turbulence, and radiation is explored, and specific calculations for three model urban areas are presented. In all cases, high velocity fire winds are predicted. The model-city results show the influence of building density and urban sprawl on the fire environment. Additional calculations consider large-area fires with the burning intensity reduced in a blast-damaged urban center.

  7. Slurry fired heater cold-flow modelling

    SciTech Connect

    Moujaes, S.F.

    1983-07-01

    This report summarizes the experimental and theoretical work leading to the scale-up of the SRC-I Demonstration Plant slurry fired heater. The scale-up involved a theoretical model using empirical relations in the derivation, and employed variables such as flow conditions, liquid viscosity, and slug frequency. Such variables have been shown to affect the heat transfer characteristics ofthe system. The model assumes that, if all other variables remain constant, the heat transfer coefficient can be scaled up proportional to D/sup -2/3/ (D = inside diameter of the fired heater tube). All flow conditions, liquid viscosities, and pipe inclinations relevant to the demonstration plant have indicated a slug flow regime in the slurry fired heater. The annular and stratified flow regimes should be avoided to minimize the potential for excessive pipe erosion and to decrease temperature gradients along the pipe cross section leading to coking and thermal stresses, respectively. Cold-flow studies in 3- and 6.75-in.-inside-diameter (ID) pipes were conducted to determine the effect of scale-up on flow regime, slug frequency, and slug dimensions. The developed model assumes that conduction heat transfer occurs through the liquid film surrounding the gas slug and laminar convective heat transfer to the liquid slug. A weighted average of these two heat transfer mechanisms gives a value for the average pipe heat transfer coefficient. The cold-flow work showed a decrease in the observed slug frequency between the 3- and 6.75-ID pipes. Data on the ratio of gas to liquid slug length in the 6.75-in. pipe are not yet complete, but are expected to yield generally lower values than those obtained in the 3-in. pipe; this will probably affect the scale-up to demonstration plant conditions. 5 references, 15 figures, 7 tables.

  8. Fuel consumption and fire emissions estimates using Fire Radiative Power, burned area and statistical modelling on the fire event scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruecker, Gernot; Leimbach, David; Guenther, Felix; Barradas, Carol; Hoffmann, Anja

    2016-04-01

    Fire Radiative Power (FRP) retrieved by infrared sensors, such as flown on several polar orbiting and geostationary satellites, has been shown to be proportional to fuel consumption rates in vegetation fires, and hence the total radiative energy released by a fire (Fire Radiative Energy, FRE) is proportional to the total amount of biomass burned. However, due to the sparse temporal coverage of polar orbiting and the coarse spatial resolution of geostationary sensors, it is difficult to estimate fuel consumption for single fire events. Here we explore an approach for estimating FRE through temporal integration of MODIS FRP retrievals over MODIS-derived burned areas. Temporal integration is aided by statistical modelling to estimate missing observations using a generalized additive model (GAM) and taking advantage of additional information such as land cover and a global dataset of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), as well as diurnal and annual FRP fluctuation patterns. Based on results from study areas located in savannah regions of Southern and Eastern Africa and Brazil, we compare this method to estimates based on simple temporal integration of FRP retrievals over the fire lifetime, and estimate the potential variability of FRP integration results across a range of fire sizes. We compare FRE-based fuel consumption against a database of field experiments in similar landscapes. Results show that for larger fires, this method yields realistic estimates and is more robust when only a small number of observations is available than the simple temporal integration. Finally, we offer an outlook on the integration of data from other satellites, specifically FireBird, S-NPP VIIRS and Sentinel-3, as well as on using higher resolution burned area data sets derived from Landsat and similar sensors.

  9. Comparing modeled fire dynamics with charcoal records for the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruecher, T.; Brovkin, V.; Kloster, S.; Marlon, J. R.; Power, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    An Earth System model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, and land surface model JSBACH that includes dynamic vegetation, carbon cycle, and fire regime are used for simulation of natural fire dynamics through the last 8,000 years. To compare the fire model results with the charcoal reconstructions, several output variables of the fire model (burned area, carbon emissions) and several approaches of model output processing are tested. The z-scores out of charcoal dataset have been calculated for the period 8,000 to 200 BP to exclude a period of strong anthropogenic forcing during the last two centuries. The model analysis points mainly to an increasing fire activity during the Holocene for most of the investigated areas, which is in good correspondence to reconstructed fire trends out of charcoal data for most of the tested regions, while for few regions such as Europe the simulated trend and the reconstructed trends are different. The difference between the modeled and reconstructed fire activity could be due to absence of the anthropogenic forcing in the model simulations, but also due to limitations of model assumptions for modeling fire dynamics. For the model trends, the usage of averaging or z-score processing of model output resulted in similar directions of trend. Therefore, the approach of fire model output processing does not effect results of the model-data comparison. Global fire modeling is still in its infancy; improving our representations of fire through validation exercises such as what we present here is thus essential before testing hypotheses about the effects of extreme climate changes on fire behavior and potential feedbacks that result from those changes.

  10. Thermal weapon sights with integrated fire control computers: algorithms and experiences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothe, Hendrik; Graswald, Markus; Breiter, Rainer

    2008-04-01

    The HuntIR long range thermal weapon sight of AIM is deployed in various out of area missions since 2004 as a part of the German Future Infantryman system (IdZ). In 2007 AIM fielded RangIR as upgrade with integrated laser Range finder (LRF), digital magnetic compass (DMC) and fire control unit (FCU). RangIR fills the capability gaps of day/night fire control for grenade machine guns (GMG) and the enhanced system of the IdZ. Due to proven expertise and proprietary methods in fire control, fast access to military trials for optimisation loops and similar hardware platforms, AIM and the University of the Federal Armed Forces Hamburg (HSU) decided to team for the development of suitable fire control algorithms. The pronounced ballistic trajectory of the 40mm GMG requires most accurate FCU-solutions specifically for air burst ammunition (ABM) and is most sensitive to faint effects like levelling or firing up/downhill. This weapon was therefore selected to validate the quality of the FCU hard- and software under relevant military conditions. For exterior ballistics the modified point mass model according to STANAG 4355 is used. The differential equations of motions are solved numerically, the two point boundary value problem is solved iteratively. Computing time varies according to the precision needed and is typical in the range from 0.1 - 0.5 seconds. RangIR provided outstanding hit accuracy including ABM fuze timing in various trials of the German Army and allied partners in 2007 and is now ready for series production. This paper deals mainly with the fundamentals of the fire control algorithms and shows how to implement them in combination with any DSP-equipped thermal weapon sights (TWS) in a variety of light supporting weapon systems.

  11. A new firing paradigm for integrate and fire stochastic neuronal models.

    PubMed

    Sirovich, Roberta; Testa, Luisa

    2016-06-01

    A new definition of firing time is given in the framework of Integrate and Fire neuronal models. The classical absorption condition at the threshold is relaxed and the firing time is defined as the first time the membrane potential process lies above a fixed depolarisation level for a sufficiently long time. The mathematical properties of the new firing time are investigated both for the Perfect Integrator and the Leaky Integrator. In the latter case, a simulation study is presented to complete the analysis where analytical results are not yet achieved. PMID:27106182

  12. A second-order impact model for forest fire regimes.

    PubMed

    Maggi, Stefano; Rinaldi, Sergio

    2006-09-01

    We present a very simple "impact" model for the description of forest fires and show that it can mimic the known characteristics of wild fire regimes in savannas, boreal forests, and Mediterranean forests. Moreover, the distribution of burned biomasses in model generated fires resemble those of burned areas in numerous large forests around the world. The model has also the merits of being the first second-order model for forest fires and the first example of the use of impact models in the study of ecosystems. PMID:16723147

  13. INFERNO, a simple approach for interactive fires and their emissions within the Met Office Unified Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mangeon, Stephane; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Folberth, Gerd

    2015-04-01

    Forest fires remain a crucial element of the Earth system, affecting and affected by the biosphere and the atmosphere. In particular emissions of trace gases (CO2, CO, NOx...) from forest fires can affect radiative forcing as well as atmospheric composition, similarly aerosols such as Black Carbon (also a strong sunlight absorber) and Organic Carbon emitted by fires can participate in cloud droplet nucleation, contributing to the aerosol indirect effect. Global estimates of fire emissions have greatly improved over the last decade, mainly through the developments in satellite observations. However, such estimates remain constrained to the recent satellite observational period; to study fires under past and future climates one has to resort to models. We will present the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO) scheme for the Met Office's Unified Model, which builds on previous work for the GISS climate model. We start from simulated fire counts using proxies for flammability (meteorology and vegetation), ignitions and fire suppression. We then extend this parameterisation to predict burnt area, burnt biomass and subsequent emissions. This climate-sensitive parameterisation utilises temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and vegetation modelling (biomass and leaf area index) to model flammability. Ignitions depend on population density and lightning strikes. Of all these variables, only population density needs to be prescribed, hence INFERNO can be run interactively within a coupled earth system model. Our approach is also distinct owing to its simplicity and is computationally inexpensive, a necessary characteristic as it is aimed to run interactively over climatological timescales. The performance of this scheme is assessed against the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED); early analysis shows this new approach effectively captures the spatial and inter-annual variability of burnt area and fire emissions of CO2 and CO

  14. The method of solid rocket motors firings environmental engineering model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pang, Baojun; Xu, Ke; Peng, Keke; Mi, Yaoqi

    The solid rocket motors firings is one main source of space debris, the solid rocket motors firings model is a part of space debris engineering model. In this paper, researching the NASA and ESA model to achieve an appropriate firing model, using the discrete method to model the solid rocket motors firings; application of the long-term approximation orbit evolution algorithm to calculate the evolution of firings generated by a single solid rocket motors ignition event in space; finally, application of space debris environment space debris density algorithm to calculate the distribution of firings generated by a single solid rocket motors ignition event in space, analysing the influence on the space environment and spacecraft.

  15. Computational Modeling of Tires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Tanner, John A. (Compiler)

    1995-01-01

    This document contains presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Modeling of Tires. The workshop attendees represented NASA, the Army and Air force, tire companies, commercial software developers, and academia. The workshop objectives were to assess the state of technology in the computational modeling of tires and to provide guidelines for future research.

  16. FireProt: Energy- and Evolution-Based Computational Design of Thermostable Multiple-Point Mutants

    PubMed Central

    Sebestova, Eva; Bendl, Jaroslav; Khare, Sagar; Chaloupkova, Radka; Prokop, Zbynek; Brezovsky, Jan; Baker, David; Damborsky, Jiri

    2015-01-01

    There is great interest in increasing proteins’ stability to enhance their utility as biocatalysts, therapeutics, diagnostics and nanomaterials. Directed evolution is a powerful, but experimentally strenuous approach. Computational methods offer attractive alternatives. However, due to the limited reliability of predictions and potentially antagonistic effects of substitutions, only single-point mutations are usually predicted in silico, experimentally verified and then recombined in multiple-point mutants. Thus, substantial screening is still required. Here we present FireProt, a robust computational strategy for predicting highly stable multiple-point mutants that combines energy- and evolution-based approaches with smart filtering to identify additive stabilizing mutations. FireProt’s reliability and applicability was demonstrated by validating its predictions against 656 mutations from the ProTherm database. We demonstrate that thermostability of the model enzymes haloalkane dehalogenase DhaA and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane dehydrochlorinase LinA can be substantially increased (ΔT m = 24°C and 21°C) by constructing and characterizing only a handful of multiple-point mutants. FireProt can be applied to any protein for which a tertiary structure and homologous sequences are available, and will facilitate the rapid development of robust proteins for biomedical and biotechnological applications. PMID:26529612

  17. FireProt: Energy- and Evolution-Based Computational Design of Thermostable Multiple-Point Mutants.

    PubMed

    Bednar, David; Beerens, Koen; Sebestova, Eva; Bendl, Jaroslav; Khare, Sagar; Chaloupkova, Radka; Prokop, Zbynek; Brezovsky, Jan; Baker, David; Damborsky, Jiri

    2015-11-01

    There is great interest in increasing proteins' stability to enhance their utility as biocatalysts, therapeutics, diagnostics and nanomaterials. Directed evolution is a powerful, but experimentally strenuous approach. Computational methods offer attractive alternatives. However, due to the limited reliability of predictions and potentially antagonistic effects of substitutions, only single-point mutations are usually predicted in silico, experimentally verified and then recombined in multiple-point mutants. Thus, substantial screening is still required. Here we present FireProt, a robust computational strategy for predicting highly stable multiple-point mutants that combines energy- and evolution-based approaches with smart filtering to identify additive stabilizing mutations. FireProt's reliability and applicability was demonstrated by validating its predictions against 656 mutations from the ProTherm database. We demonstrate that thermostability of the model enzymes haloalkane dehalogenase DhaA and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane dehydrochlorinase LinA can be substantially increased (ΔTm = 24°C and 21°C) by constructing and characterizing only a handful of multiple-point mutants. FireProt can be applied to any protein for which a tertiary structure and homologous sequences are available, and will facilitate the rapid development of robust proteins for biomedical and biotechnological applications. PMID:26529612

  18. Developing a probabilistic fire risk model and its application to fire danger systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penman, T.; Bradstock, R.; Caccamo, G.; Price, O.

    2012-04-01

    Wildfires can result in significant economic losses where they encounter human assets. Management agencies have large budgets devoted to both prevention and suppression of fires, but little is known about the extent to which they alter the probability of asset loss. Prediction of the risk of asset loss as a result of wildfire requires an understanding of a number of complex processes from ignition, fire growth and impact on assets. These processes need to account for the additive or multiplicative effects of management, weather and the natural environment. Traditional analytical methods can only examine only a small subset of these. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) provide a methodology to examine complex environmental problems. Outcomes of a BBN are represented as likelihoods, which can then form the basis for risk analysis and management. Here we combine a range of data sources, including simulation models, empirical statistical analyses and expert opinion to form a fire management BBN. Various management actions have been incorporated into the model including landscape and interface prescribed burning, initial attack and fire suppression. Performance of the model has been tested against fire history datasets with strong correlations being found. Adapting the BBN presented here we are capable of developing a spatial and temporal fire danger rating system. Currently Australian fire danger rating systems are based on the weather. Our model accounts for existing fires, as well as the risk of new ignitions combined with probabilistic weather forecasts to identify those areas which are most at risk of asset loss. Fire growth is modelled with consideration given to management prevention efforts, as well as suppression resources that are available in each geographic locality. At a 10km resolution the model will provide a probability of asset loss which represents a significant step forward in the level of information that can be provided to the general public.

  19. Computer Models of Proteins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Dr. Marc Pusey (seated) and Dr. Craig Kundrot use computers to analyze x-ray maps and generate three-dimensional models of protein structures. With this information, scientists at Marshall Space Flight Center can learn how proteins are made and how they work. The computer screen depicts a proten structure as a ball-and-stick model. Other models depict the actual volume occupied by the atoms, or the ribbon-like structures that are crucial to a protein's function.

  20. Fires

    MedlinePlus

    Whether a fire happens in your home or in the wild, it can be very dangerous. Fire spreads quickly. There is no time to gather ... a phone call. In just two minutes, a fire can become life-threatening. In five minutes, a ...

  1. The EFFIS forest fire atmospheric emission model: Application to a major fire event in Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monteiro, A.; Corti, P.; San Miguel-Ayanz, J.; Miranda, A. I.; Borrego, C.

    2014-02-01

    Forest fires are a major contributor of gaseous and particulate compounds to the atmosphere, impairing air quality and affecting human health. A new forest fire emissions module was developed and integrated into the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), which systematically compiles, since 2000, series of burnt area statistics mapped from satellite imagery. This new forest fire emission model was built on classical methodologies of fuel-map based emission estimation that were improved, especially on burning efficiency, fuel consumption estimation and emission factors. It makes the best use of EFFIS near-real time and detailed information on forest fires, mainly concerning products with a high temporal resolution, which is needed to simulate smoke dispersion and chemical transformation in the atmosphere.

  2. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kehrwald, Natalie; Aleman, Julie C.; Coughlan, Michael; Courtney Mustaphi, Colin J.; Githumbi, Esther N.; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Power, Mitchell J.

    2016-01-01

    The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1) and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

  3. Modeling post-fire hydro-geomorphic recovery in the Waldo Canyon Fire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinoshita, Alicia; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, Samira; Chin, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Wildfire can have significant impacts on watershed hydrology and geomorphology by changing soil properties and removing vegetation, often increasing runoff and soil erosion and deposition, debris flows, and flooding. Watershed systems may take several years or longer to recover. During this time, post-fire channel changes have the potential to alter hydraulics that influence characteristics such as time of concentration and increase time to peak flow, flow capacity, and velocity. Using the case of the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado (USA), this research will leverage field-based surveys and terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to parameterize KINEROS2 (KINematic runoff and EROSion), an event oriented, physically-based watershed runoff and erosion model. We will use the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, which is a GIS-based hydrologic modeling tool that uses commonly available GIS data layers to parameterize, execute, and spatially visualize runoff and sediment yield for watersheds impacted by the Waldo Canyon Fire. Specifically, two models are developed, an unburned (Bear Creek) and burned (Williams) watershed. The models will simulate burn severity and treatment conditions. Field data will be used to validate the burned watersheds for pre- and post-fire changes in infiltration, runoff, peak flow, sediment yield, and sediment discharge. Spatial modeling will provide insight into post-fire patterns for varying treatment, burn severity, and climate scenarios. Results will also provide post-fire managers with improved hydro-geomorphic modeling and prediction tools for water resources management and mitigation efforts.

  4. FIREPLUME model for plume dispersion from fires: Application to uranium hexafluoride cylinder fires

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, D.F.; Dunn, W.E.; Policastro, A.J.; Maloney, D.

    1997-06-01

    This report provides basic documentation of the FIREPLUME model and discusses its application to the prediction of health impacts resulting from releases of uranium hexafluoride (UF{sub 6}) in fires. The model application outlined in this report was conducted for the Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Alternative Strategies for the Long-Term Management and Use of Depleted UF{sub 6}. The FIREPLUME model is an advanced stochastic model for atmospheric plume dispersion that predicts the downwind consequences of a release of toxic materials from an explosion or a fire. The model is based on the nonbuoyant atmospheric dispersion model MCLDM (Monte Carlo Lagrangian Dispersion Model), which has been shown to be consistent with available laboratory and field data. The inclusion of buoyancy and the addition of a postprocessor to evaluate time-varying concentrations lead to the current model. The FIREPLUME model, as applied to fire-related UF{sub 6} cylinder releases, accounts for three phases of release and dispersion. The first phase of release involves the hydraulic rupture of the cylinder due to heating of the UF{sub 6} in the fire. The second phase involves the emission of material into the burning fire, and the third phase involves the emission of material after the fire has died during the cool-down period. The model predicts the downwind concentration of the material as a function of time at any point downwind at or above the ground. All together, five fire-related release scenarios are examined in this report. For each scenario, downwind concentrations of the UF{sub 6} reaction products, uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride, are provided for two meteorological conditions: (1) D stability with a 4-m/s wind speed, and (2) F stability with a 1-m/s wind speed.

  5. NEW IMPROVEMENTS TO MFIRE TO ENHANCE FIRE MODELING CAPABILITIES

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, L.; Smith, A.C.; Yuan, L.

    2016-01-01

    NIOSH's mine fire simulation program, MFIRE, is widely accepted as a standard for assessing and predicting the impact of a fire on the mine ventilation system and the spread of fire contaminants in coal and metal/nonmetal mines, which has been used by U.S. and international companies to simulate fires for planning and response purposes. MFIRE is a dynamic, transient-state, mine ventilation network simulation program that performs normal planning calculations. It can also be used to analyze ventilation networks under thermal and mechanical influence such as changes in ventilation parameters, external influences such as changes in temperature, and internal influences such as a fire. The program output can be used to analyze the effects of these influences on the ventilation system. Since its original development by Michigan Technological University for the Bureau of Mines in the 1970s, several updates have been released over the years. In 2012, NIOSH completed a major redesign and restructuring of the program with the release of MFIRE 3.0. MFIRE's outdated FORTRAN programming language was replaced with an object-oriented C++ language and packaged into a dynamic link library (DLL). However, the MFIRE 3.0 release made no attempt to change or improve the fire modeling algorithms inherited from its previous version, MFIRE 2.20. This paper reports on improvements that have been made to the fire modeling capabilities of MFIRE 3.0 since its release. These improvements include the addition of fire source models of the t-squared fire and heat release rate curve data file, the addition of a moving fire source for conveyor belt fire simulations, improvement of the fire location algorithm, and the identification and prediction of smoke rollback phenomena. All the improvements discussed in this paper will be termed as MFIRE 3.1 and released by NIOSH in the near future. PMID:27375301

  6. Modeling of air toxics from hydrocarbon pool fires

    SciTech Connect

    Harvey, K.A.; Aydil, M.L.; Barone, J.B.

    1996-12-31

    While there is guidance for estimating the radiation hazards of fires (ARCHIE), there is little guidance on modeling the dispersion of hazardous materials from fires. The objective of this paper is to provide a review of the methodology used for modeling the impacts of liquid hydrocarbon pool fires. The required input variables for modeling of hydrocarbon pool fires include emission strength, emission duration, and dispersion characteristics. Methods for predicting the products of combustion including the use of literature values, test data, and thermodynamic equilibrium calculations are discussed. The use of energy balances coupled to radiative heat transfer calculations are presented as a method for determining flame temperature. Fire modeling literature is reviewed in order to determine other source release variables such as mass burn rate and duration and flame geometry.

  7. Parameterization of Fire Injection Height in Large Scale Transport Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paugam, R.; Wooster, M.; Atherton, J.; Val Martin, M.; Freitas, S.; Kaiser, J. W.; Schultz, M. G.

    2012-12-01

    The parameterization of fire injection height in global chemistry transport model is currently a subject of debate in the atmospheric community. The approach usually proposed in the literature is based on relationships linking injection height and remote sensing products like the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) which can measure active fire properties. In this work we present an approach based on the Plume Rise Model (PRM) developed by Freitas et al (2007, 2010). This plume model is already used in different host models (e.g. WRF, BRAMS). In its original version, the fire is modeled by: a convective heat flux (CHF; pre-defined by the land cover and evaluated as a fixed part of the total heat released) and a plume radius (derived from the GOES Wildfire-ABBA product) which defines the fire extension where the CHF is homogeneously distributed. Here in our approach the Freitas model is modified, in particular we added (i) an equation for mass conservation, (ii) a scheme to parameterize horizontal entrainment/detrainment, and (iii) a new initialization module which estimates the sensible heat released by the fire on the basis of measured FRP rather than fuel cover type. FRP and Active Fire (AF) area necessary for the initialization of the model are directly derived from a modified version of the Dozier algorithm applied to the MOD14 product. An optimization (using the simulating annealing method) of this new version of the PRM is then proposed based on fire plume characteristics derived from the official MISR plume height project and atmospheric profiles extracted from the ECMWF analysis. The data set covers the main fire region (Africa, Siberia, Indonesia, and North and South America) and is set up to (i) retain fires where plume height and FRP can be easily linked (i.e. avoid large fire cluster where individual plume might interact), (ii) keep fire which show decrease of FRP and AF area after MISR overpass (i.e. to minimize effect of the time period needed for the plume to

  8. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process. It is the most important disturbance worldwide in terms of area and variety of biomes affected; a major mechanism by which carbon is transferred from the land to the atmosphere (2-4 Pg per annum, equiv. 20-30% of global fossil fuel emissions over the last decade); and globally a significant source of particulate aerosols and trace greenhouse gases. Fire is also potentially important as a feedback in the climate system. If climate change favours more intense fire regimes, this would result in a net transfer of carbon from ecosystems to the atmosphere, as well as higher emissions, and under certain circumstances, increased troposphere ozone production- all contributing to positive climate-land surface feedbacks. Quantitative analysis of fire-vegetation-climate interactions has been held back until recently by a lack of consistent global data sets on fire, and by the underdeveloped state of dynamic vegetation-fire modelling. Dynamic vegetation-fire modelling is an essential part of our forecasting armory for examining the possible impacts of climate, fire regimes and land-use on ecosystems and emissions from biomass burning beyond the observation period, as part of future climate or paleo-climate studies. LPJ-GUESS is a process-based model of vegetation dynamics designed for regional to global applications. It combines features of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) with those of the General Ecosystem Simulator (GUESS) in a single, flexible modelling framework. The models have identical representations of eco-physiological and biogeochemical processes, including the hydrological cycle. However, they differ in the detail with which vegetation dynamics and canopy structure are simulated. Simplified, computationally efficient representations are used in the LPJ-DGVM, while LPJ-GUESS employs a gap-model approach, which better captures ecological succession and hence ecosystem changes due to

  9. A VARI-Based Relative Greenness from MODIS Data for Computing the Fire Potential Index

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schneider, P.; Roberts, D. A.; Kyriakidis, P. C.

    2008-01-01

    The Fire Potential Index (FPI) relies on relative greenness (RG) estimates from remote sensing data. The Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI), derived from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery is currently used to calculate RG operationally. Here we evaluated an alternate measure of RG using the Visible Atmospheric Resistant Index (VARI) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data. VARI was chosen because it has previously been shown to have the strongest relationship with Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) out of a wide selection of MODIS-derived indices in southern California shrublands. To compare MODIS-based NDVI-FPI and VARI-FPI, RG was calculated from a 6-year time series of MODIS composites and validated against in-situ observations of LFM as a surrogate for vegetation greenness. RG from both indices was then compared in terms of its performance for computing the FPI using historical wildfire data. Computed RG values were regressed against ground-sampled LFM at 14 sites within Los Angeles County. The results indicate the VARI-based RG consistently shows a stronger relationship with observed LFM than NDVI-based RG. With an average R2 of 0.727 compared to a value of only 0.622 for NDVI-RG, VARI-RG showed stronger relationships at 13 out of 14 sites. Based on these results, daily FPI maps were computed for the years 2001 through 2005 using both NDVI-RG and VARI-RG. These were then validated against 12,490 fire detections from the MODIS active fire product using logistic regression. Deviance of the logistic regression model was 408.8 for NDVI-FPI and 176.2 for VARI-FPI. The c-index was found to be 0.69 and 0.78, respectively. The results show that VARI-FP outperforms NDVI-FPI in distinguishing between fire and no-fire events for historical wildfire data in southern California for the given time period.

  10. A computer code to estimate accidental fire and radioactive airborne releases in nuclear fuel cycle facilities: User's manual for FIRIN

    SciTech Connect

    Chan, M.K.; Ballinger, M.Y.; Owczarski, P.C.

    1989-02-01

    This manual describes the technical bases and use of the computer code FIRIN. This code was developed to estimate the source term release of smoke and radioactive particles from potential fires in nuclear fuel cycle facilities. FIRIN is a product of a broader study, Fuel Cycle Accident Analysis, which Pacific Northwest Laboratory conducted for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The technical bases of FIRIN consist of a nonradioactive fire source term model, compartment effects modeling, and radioactive source term models. These three elements interact with each other in the code affecting the course of the fire. This report also serves as a complete FIRIN user's manual. Included are the FIRIN code description with methods/algorithms of calculation and subroutines, code operating instructions with input requirements, and output descriptions. 40 refs., 5 figs., 31 tabs.

  11. Modeling Fire Susceptibility to Delineate Wildland-Urban Interface for Municipal-Scale Fire Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitman, Ellen; Rapaport, Eric; Sherren, Kate

    2013-12-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to -1 SD from the mean FS value (), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk.

  12. Modeling fire susceptibility to delineate wildland-urban interface for municipal-scale fire risk management.

    PubMed

    Whitman, Ellen; Rapaport, Eric; Sherren, Kate

    2013-12-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to -1 SD from the mean FS value ([Formula: see text]), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk. PMID:24036629

  13. Computer Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Pronskikh, V. S.

    2014-05-09

    Verification and validation of computer codes and models used in simulation are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance and have recently been discussed by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. It has been argued that because complex simulations are generally not transparent to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise for verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of the model failure. I argue that in order to disentangle verification and validation, a clear distinction between computer modeling (construction of mathematical computer models of elementary processes) and simulation (construction of models of composite objects and processes by means of numerical experimenting with them) needs to be made. Holding on to that distinction, I propose to relate verification (based on theoretical strategies such as inferences) to modeling and validation, which shares the common epistemology with experimentation, to simulation. To explain reasons of their intermittent entanglement I propose a weberian ideal-typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I suggest an approach to alleviate the Duhem problem for verification and validation generally applicable in practice and based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes

  14. VIEW OF COMPUTER/DATA COLLECTION AREA, SOUTH OF FIRING ROOM NO. ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    VIEW OF COMPUTER/DATA COLLECTION AREA, SOUTH OF FIRING ROOM NO. 3, FACING SOUTHEAST - Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Launch Complex 39, Launch Control Center, LCC Road, East of Kennedy Parkway North, Cape Canaveral, Brevard County, FL

  15. Computation identifies structural features that govern neuronal firing properties in slowly adapting touch receptors.

    PubMed

    Lesniak, Daine R; Marshall, Kara L; Wellnitz, Scott A; Jenkins, Blair A; Baba, Yoshichika; Rasband, Matthew N; Gerling, Gregory J; Lumpkin, Ellen A

    2014-01-01

    Touch is encoded by cutaneous sensory neurons with diverse morphologies and physiological outputs. How neuronal architecture influences response properties is unknown. To elucidate the origin of firing patterns in branched mechanoreceptors, we combined neuroanatomy, electrophysiology and computation to analyze mouse slowly adapting type I (SAI) afferents. These vertebrate touch receptors, which innervate Merkel cells, encode shape and texture. SAI afferents displayed a high degree of variability in touch-evoked firing and peripheral anatomy. The functional consequence of differences in anatomical architecture was tested by constructing network models representing sequential steps of mechanosensory encoding: skin displacement at touch receptors, mechanotransduction and action-potential initiation. A systematic survey of arbor configurations predicted that the arrangement of mechanotransduction sites at heminodes is a key structural feature that accounts in part for an afferent's firing properties. These findings identify an anatomical correlate and plausible mechanism to explain the driver effect first described by Adrian and Zotterman. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01488.001. PMID:24448409

  16. Computation identifies structural features that govern neuronal firing properties in slowly adapting touch receptors

    PubMed Central

    Lesniak, Daine R; Marshall, Kara L; Wellnitz, Scott A; Jenkins, Blair A; Baba, Yoshichika; Rasband, Matthew N; Gerling, Gregory J; Lumpkin, Ellen A

    2014-01-01

    Touch is encoded by cutaneous sensory neurons with diverse morphologies and physiological outputs. How neuronal architecture influences response properties is unknown. To elucidate the origin of firing patterns in branched mechanoreceptors, we combined neuroanatomy, electrophysiology and computation to analyze mouse slowly adapting type I (SAI) afferents. These vertebrate touch receptors, which innervate Merkel cells, encode shape and texture. SAI afferents displayed a high degree of variability in touch-evoked firing and peripheral anatomy. The functional consequence of differences in anatomical architecture was tested by constructing network models representing sequential steps of mechanosensory encoding: skin displacement at touch receptors, mechanotransduction and action-potential initiation. A systematic survey of arbor configurations predicted that the arrangement of mechanotransduction sites at heminodes is a key structural feature that accounts in part for an afferent’s firing properties. These findings identify an anatomical correlate and plausible mechanism to explain the driver effect first described by Adrian and Zotterman. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01488.001 PMID:24448409

  17. CMS computing model evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandi, C.; Bonacorsi, D.; Colling, D.; Fisk, I.; Girone, M.

    2014-06-01

    The CMS Computing Model was developed and documented in 2004. Since then the model has evolved to be more flexible and to take advantage of new techniques, but many of the original concepts remain and are in active use. In this presentation we will discuss the changes planned for the restart of the LHC program in 2015. We will discuss the changes planning in the use and definition of the computing tiers that were defined with the MONARC project. We will present how we intend to use new services and infrastructure to provide more efficient and transparent access to the data. We will discuss the computing plans to make better use of the computing capacity by scheduling more of the processor nodes, making better use of the disk storage, and more intelligent use of the networking.

  18. Stochastic fire-diffuse-fire model with realistic cluster dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calabrese, Ana; Fraiman, Daniel; Zysman, Daniel; Ponce Dawson, Silvina

    2010-09-01

    Living organisms use waves that propagate through excitable media to transport information. Ca2+ waves are a paradigmatic example of this type of processes. A large hierarchy of Ca2+ signals that range from localized release events to global waves has been observed in Xenopus laevis oocytes. In these cells, Ca2+ release occurs trough inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptors (IP3Rs) which are organized in clusters of channels located on the membrane of the endoplasmic reticulum. In this article we construct a stochastic model for a cluster of IP3R ’s that replicates the experimental observations reported in [D. Fraiman , Biophys. J. 90, 3897 (2006)10.1529/biophysj.105.075911]. We then couple this phenomenological cluster model with a reaction-diffusion equation, so as to have a discrete stochastic model for calcium dynamics. The model we propose describes the transition regimes between isolated release and steadily propagating waves as the IP3 concentration is increased.

  19. Reliable Acquisition of RAM Dumps from Intel-Based Apple Mac Computers over FireWire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gladyshev, Pavel; Almansoori, Afrah

    RAM content acquisition is an important step in live forensic analysis of computer systems. FireWire offers an attractive way to acquire RAM content of Apple Mac computers equipped with a FireWire connection. However, the existing techniques for doing so require substantial knowledge of the target computer configuration and cannot be used reliably on a previously unknown computer in a crime scene. This paper proposes a novel method for acquiring RAM content of Apple Mac computers over FireWire, which automatically discovers necessary information about the target computer and can be used in the crime scene setting. As an application of the developed method, the techniques for recovery of AOL Instant Messenger (AIM) conversation fragments from RAM dumps are also discussed in this paper.

  20. Computationally modeling interpersonal trust

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jin Joo; Knox, W. Bradley; Wormwood, Jolie B.; Breazeal, Cynthia; DeSteno, David

    2013-01-01

    We present a computational model capable of predicting—above human accuracy—the degree of trust a person has toward their novel partner by observing the trust-related nonverbal cues expressed in their social interaction. We summarize our prior work, in which we identify nonverbal cues that signal untrustworthy behavior and also demonstrate the human mind's readiness to interpret those cues to assess the trustworthiness of a social robot. We demonstrate that domain knowledge gained from our prior work using human-subjects experiments, when incorporated into the feature engineering process, permits a computational model to outperform both human predictions and a baseline model built in naiveté of this domain knowledge. We then present the construction of hidden Markov models to investigate temporal relationships among the trust-related nonverbal cues. By interpreting the resulting learned structure, we observe that models built to emulate different levels of trust exhibit different sequences of nonverbal cues. From this observation, we derived sequence-based temporal features that further improve the accuracy of our computational model. Our multi-step research process presented in this paper combines the strength of experimental manipulation and machine learning to not only design a computational trust model but also to further our understanding of the dynamics of interpersonal trust. PMID:24363649

  1. Modeling heat and moisture transport in firefighter protective clothing during flash fire exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chitrphiromsri, Patirop; Kuznetsov, Andrey V.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, a model of heat and moisture transport in firefighter protective clothing during a flash fire exposure is presented. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of coupled heat and moisture transport on the protective performance of the garment. Computational results show the distribution of temperature and moisture content in the fabric during the exposure to the flash fire as well as during the cool-down period. Moreover, the duration of the exposure during which the garment protects the firefighter from getting second and third degree burns from the flash fire exposure is numerically predicted. A complete model for the fire-fabric-air gap-skin system is presented.

  2. Gaps in Data and Modeling Tools for Understanding Fire and Fire Effects in Tundra Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    French, N. H.; Miller, M. E.; Loboda, T. V.; Jenkins, L. K.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Suiter, A.; Hawkins, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    As the ecosystem science community learns more about tundra ecosystems and disturbance in tundra, a review of base data sets and ecological field data for the region shows there are many gaps that need to be filled. In this paper we will review efforts to improve our knowledge of the occurrence and impacts of fire in the North American tundra region completed under a NASA Terrestrial Ecology grant. Our main source of information is remote sensing data from satellite sensors and ecological data from past and recent field data collections by our team, collaborators, and others. Past fire occurrence is not well known for this region compared with other North American biomes. In this presentation we review an effort to use a semi-automated detection algorithm to identify past fire occurrence using the Landsat TM/ETM+ archives, pointing out some of the still-unaddressed issues for a full understanding of fire regime for the region. For this task, fires in Landsat scenes were mapped using the Random Forest classifier (Breiman 2001) to automatically detect potential burn scars. Random Forests is an ensemble classifier that employs machine learning to build a large collection of decision trees that are grown from a random selection of user supplied training data. A pixel's classification is then determined by which class receives the most 'votes' from each tree. We also review the use fire location records and existing modeling methods to quantify emissions from these fires. Based on existing maps of vegetation fuels, we used the approach developed for the Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS; French et al. 2011) to estimate emissions across the tundra region. WFEIS employs the Consume model (http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/research/smoke/consume/index.shtml) to estimate emissions by applying empirically developed relationships between fuels, fire conditions (weather-based fire indexes), and emissions. Here again, we will review the gaps in data and modeling

  3. Modelling threats to water quality from fire suppression chemicals and post-fire erosion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hyde, Kevin; Ziemniak, Chris; Elliot, William; Samuels, William

    2014-05-01

    Misapplication of fire retardant chemicals into streams and rivers may threaten aquatic life. The possible threat depends on the contaminant concentration that, in part, is controlled by dispersion within flowing water. In the event of a misapplication, methods are needed to rapidly estimate the chemical mass entering the waterway and the dispersion and transport within the system. Here we demonstrate a new tool that calculates the chemical mass based on aircraft delivery system, fire chemical type, and stream and intersect geometry. The estimated mass is intended to be transferred into a GIS module that uses real-time stream data to map and simulate the dispersion and transport downstream. This system currently accounts only for aqueous transport. We envision that the GIS module can be modified to incorporate sediment transport, specifically to model movement of sediments from post-fire erosion. This modification could support assessment of threats of post-fire erosion to water quality and water supply systems.

  4. Prediction of fire smoke exposure and air quality degradation: toward a high resolution coupled fire-atmosphere model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mari, Céline; Strada, Susanna; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Bosseur, Frederic; Pialat, Xavier; Humberto Amorin, Jorge; Borrego, Carlos; Freitas, Saulo; Longo, Karla; Martins, Vera; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Paugam, Ronan

    2013-04-01

    Wildfires release significant amounts of trace gas and aerosols into the atmosphere. Firefighters are exposed to wildland fire smoke with adverse health effects. At larger scale, depending on meteorological conditions and fire characteristics, fire emissions can efficiently reduce air quality and visibility, even far away from emission sources. Uncertainties in fire emissions and fire plume dynamics are two important factors which substantially limit the capability of current models to predict smoke exposure and air quality degradation. A collaborative effort recently started in France to develop a coupled fire-atmosphere model based on the fire propagation model ForeFire, developed at the University of Corsica, and the mesoscale non-hydrostatic meteorological model Meso-NH, developed by the University of Toulouse and Meteo-France. ForeFire is a semi-physical model based on an analytical estimation of the rate of spread and an integration with a front tracking method. The fire model is used to provide gridded heating, water vapor and chemical fluxes at high temporal and spatial resolutions to Meso-NH. The coupled model was used in two configurations depending on the spatial resolution: with or without the feedback of the atmosphere on the fire propagation. At kilometric resolution, the model is used off-line to simulate two Mediterranean fires: an arson wildfire that burned in 2005 near Lancon-de-Provence, south-eastern France, and a well documented episode of the Lisbon 2003 fires (in collaboration with the University of Aveiro, Portugal). The question of the injection height is treated with an adaptation of the eddy-diffusivity/mass flux approach for convective boundary layer and compared to the 1D Plume Rise Model (developed at INPE) in contrasted meteorological scenarios. At higher resolution, the two-way coupled model is tested on idealized and real fire cases including ozone chemistry. Future required developments on surface emissions and combustion chemistry

  5. Aspects and Strategies of Numerical Modelling of Underground Coal Fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuttke, M. W.; Han, J.; Liu, G.; Kessels, W.; Schmidt, M.; Gusat, D.; Fischer, Chr.; Hirner, A.; Meyer, U.

    2009-04-01

    Numerical modelling of underground coal fires has become a valuable tool even for practical fire extinction work. The approaches, methods and finally codes that are used depend on the targets that are aimed at by the particular modelling task. The most general one is to fully understand the processes that sustain or suppress the fire. Another purpose is to produce realistic data for regions that are not accessible (e . g. underneath a burning coal seam) or couldn't be investigated (e.g due to limited resources) to estimate the complete energy budget of the fire. Last but not least one would like to forecast the fire dynamics to predict the future damage or to assess the effectivenees of extinction work. These purposes require the consideration of all aspects with respect to thermal, hydraulic, mechanical and chemical (THMC) processes. At the moment there is no single code that completely covers all these aspects with every degree of complexity. Within the Sino-German project "Innovative Technologies for Exploration, Extinction and Monitoring of Coal Fires in North China" we apply existing codes with different foci with respect to THMC processes and try to combine all codes to one comprehensive model. Besides the sophisticated academic modelling approach we also pursue the concept of "Onsite" modelling to enable fire fighting personnel to perform simplified modelling tasks even by means of web-based applications.

  6. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States.

    SciTech Connect

    Hollingsworth, LaWen T.; Kurth, Laurie,; Parresol, Bernard, R.; Ottmar, Roger, D.; Prichard, Susan J.

    2012-01-01

    Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation System. The fundamental fire intensity algorithms in these systems require surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model surface fire behavior. Canopy base height, stand height, and canopy bulk density are required in addition to surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model crown fire activity. Several surface fuel and canopy classification efforts have used various remote sensing and ecological relationships as core methods to develop the spatial layers. All of these methods depend upon consistent and temporally constant interpretations of crown attributes and their ecological conditions to estimate surface fuel conditions. This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for an 80,000 ha tract of land in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern US using three different data sources. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the US using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern US using satellite imagery. Differences in modeled fire behavior, data development, and data utility are summarized to assist in determining which data source may be most applicable for various land management activities and required analyses. Characterizing fire behavior under different fuel relationships provides insights for natural ecological

  7. BLAZE, a novel Fire-Model for the CABLE Land-Surface Model applied to a Re-Assessment of the Australian Continental Carbon Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieradzik, L. P.; Haverd, V. E.; Briggs, P.; Meyer, C. P.; Canadell, J.

    2015-12-01

    Fires play a major role in the carbon-cycle and the development of global vegetation, especially on the continent of Australia, where vegetation is prone to frequent fire occurences and where regional composition and stand-age distribution is regulated by fire. Furthermore, the probable changes of fire behaviour under a changing climate are still poorly understood and require further investigation.In this presentation we introduce the fire-model BLAZE (BLAZe induced land-atmosphere flux Estimator), designed for a novel approach to simulate fire-frequencies, fire-intensities, fire related fluxes and the responses in vegetation. Fire frequencies are prescribed using SIMFIRE (Knorr et al., 2014) or GFED3 (e.g. Giglio et al., 2013). Fire-Line-Intensity (FLI) is computed from meteorological information and fuel loads which are state variables within the C-cycle component of CABLE (Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model). This FLI is used as an input to the tree-demography model POP(Population-Order-Physiology; Haverd et al., 2014). Within POP the fire-mortality depends on FLI and tree height distribution. Intensity-dependent combustion factors (CF) are then generated for and applied to live and litter carbon pools as well as the transfers from live pools to litter caused by fire. Thus, both fire and stand characteristics are taken into account which has a legacy effect on future events. Gross C-CO2 emissions from Australian wild fires are larger than Australian territorial fossil fuel emissions. However, the net effect of fire on the Australian terrestrial carbon budget is unknown. We address this by applying the newly-developed fire module, integrated within the CABLE land surface model, and optimised for the Australian region, to a reassessment of the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget.

  8. Computational models of planning.

    PubMed

    Geffner, Hector

    2013-07-01

    The selection of the action to do next is one of the central problems faced by autonomous agents. Natural and artificial systems address this problem in various ways: action responses can be hardwired, they can be learned, or they can be computed from a model of the situation, the actions, and the goals. Planning is the model-based approach to action selection and a fundamental ingredient of intelligent behavior in both humans and machines. Planning, however, is computationally hard as the consideration of all possible courses of action is not computationally feasible. The problem has been addressed by research in Artificial Intelligence that in recent years has uncovered simple but powerful computational principles that make planning feasible. The principles take the form of domain-independent methods for computing heuristics or appraisals that enable the effective generation of goal-directed behavior even over huge spaces. In this paper, we look at several planning models, at methods that have been shown to scale up to large problems, and at what these methods may suggest about the human mind. WIREs Cogn Sci 2013, 4:341-356. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1233 The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. PMID:26304223

  9. Mapping wildland fuels for fire management across multiple scales: Integrating remote sensing, GIS, and biophysical modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keane, R.E.; Burgan, R.; van Wagtendonk, J.

    2001-01-01

    Fuel maps are essential for computing spatial fire hazard and risk and simulating fire growth and intensity across a landscape. However, fuel mapping is an extremely difficult and complex process requiring expertise in remotely sensed image classification, fire behavior, fuels modeling, ecology, and geographical information systems (GIS). This paper first presents the challenges of mapping fuels: canopy concealment, fuelbed complexity, fuel type diversity, fuel variability, and fuel model generalization. Then, four approaches to mapping fuels are discussed with examples provided from the literature: (1) field reconnaissance; (2) direct mapping methods; (3) indirect mapping methods; and (4) gradient modeling. A fuel mapping method is proposed that uses current remote sensing and image processing technology. Future fuel mapping needs are also discussed which include better field data and fuel models, accurate GIS reference layers, improved satellite imagery, and comprehensive ecosystem models.

  10. A new model of landscape-scale fire connectivity applied to resource and fire management in the Sonoran Desert, USA.

    PubMed

    Gray, Miranda E; Dickson, Brett G

    2015-06-01

    Understanding where and when on the landscape fire is likely to burn (fire likelihood) and the predicted responses of valued resources (fire effects) will lead to more effective management of wildfire risk in multiple ecosystem types. Fire is a contagious and highly unpredictable process, and an analysis of fire connectivity that incorporates stochasticity may help predict fire likelihood across large extents. We developed a model of fire connectivity based on electrical circuit theory, which is a probabilistic approach to modeling ecological flows. We first parameterized our model to reflect the synergistic influences of fuels, landscape properties, and winds on fire spread in the lower Sonoran Desert of southwestern Arizona, and then defined this landscape as an interconnected network through which to model flow (i.e., fire spread). We interpreted the mapped outputs as fire likelihood and used historical burned area data to evaluate our results. Expected fire effects were characterized based on the degree to which future fire exposure might negatively impact native plant community recovery, taking into account the impact of repeated fire and major vegetation associations. We explored fire effects within habitat for the endangered Sonoran pronghorn antelope and designated wilderness. Model results indicated that fire likelihood was higher in lower elevations, and in areas with lower slopes and topographic roughness. Fire likelihood and effects were predicted to be high in 21% of the currently occupied range of the Sonoran pronghorn and 15% of the additional habitat considered suitable. Across 16 designated wilderness areas, highest predicted fire likelihood and effects fell within low elevation wilderness areas that overlapped large fire perimeters that occurred in 2005. As ongoing changes in climate and land cover are poised to alter the fire regime across extensive and ecologically important areas in the lower Sonoran Desert, an analysis of fire likelihood and

  11. New Model Predicts Fire Activity in South America

    NASA Video Gallery

    UC Irvine scientist Jim Randerson discusses a new model that is able to predict fire activity in South America using sea surface temperature observations of the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. The find...

  12. 76 FR 46330 - NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-02

    ... 29, 2009, for a 60-day public comment period (74 FR 68872). Numerous comments were received, and they... COMMISSION NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft... for public comment a document entitled, NUREG-1934 (EPRI 1023259), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire...

  13. A mathematical model of slagging of the furnace of the pulverized-coal-firing boiler

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chernetskii, M. Yu.; Alekhnovich, A. N.; Dekterev, A. A.

    2012-08-01

    The mathematical model of furnace slagging integrated into the Sigma-Flow program system of computational hydrodynamics has been developed; this system makes it possible to calculate aerodynamics, processes of heat-and-mass exchange, and combustion processes in complex technological facilities, including pulverized-coal-firing furnaces.

  14. Modeling Fire Emissions across Central and Southern Italy: Implications for Land and Fire Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    Fires play a relevant role in the global and regional carbon cycle, representing a remarkable source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that influence atmosphere budgets and climate. In addition, the wildfire increase projected in Southern Europe due to climate change (CC) and concurrent exacerbation of extreme weather conditions could also lead to a significant rise in GHG. Recently, in the context of the Italian National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (SNAC), several approaches were identified as valuable tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires, in order to reduce landscape susceptibility and to contribute to the efforts of carbon emission mitigation proposed within the Kyoto protocol. Active forest and fuel management (such as prescribed burning, fuel reduction and removal, weed and flammable shrub control, creation of fuel discontinuity) is recognised to be a key element to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires. Despite this, overall there is a lack of studies about the effectiveness of fire emission mitigation strategies. The current work aims to analyse the potential of a combination of fuel management practices in mitigating emissions from forest fires and evaluate valuable and viable options across Central and Southern Italy. These objectives were achieved throughout a retrospective application of an integrated approach combining a fire emission model (FOFEM - First Order Fire Effect Model) with spatially explicit, comprehensive, and accurate fire, vegetation and weather data for the period 2004-2012. Furthermore, a number of silvicultural techniques were combined to develop several fuel management scenarios and then tested to evaluate their potential in mitigating fire emissions.The preliminary results showed the crucial role of appropriate fuel, fire behavior, and weather data to reduce bias in quantifying the source and the composition of fire emissions and to attain reasonable estimations. Also, the current

  15. Parameterization of Fire Injection Height in Large Scale Transport Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paugam, r.; Wooster, m.; Freitas, s.; Gonzi, s.; Palmer, p.

    2012-04-01

    The parameterization of fire injection height in global chemistry transport model is currently a subject of debate in the atmospheric community. The approach usually proposed in the literature is based on relationships linking injection height and remote sensing products like the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) which can measure active fire properties. In this work we present an approach based on the Plume Rise Model (PRM) developed by Freitas et al (2007, 2010). This plume model is already used in different host models (e.g. WRF, BRAMS). In its original version, the fire is modelled by: a convective heat flux (CHF; pre-defined by the land cover and evaluated as a fixed part of the total heat released) and a plume radius (derived from the GOES Wildfire-ABBA product) which defines the fire extension where the CHF is homogeneously distributed. Here in our approach the Freitas model is modified. Major modifications are implemented in its initialisation module: (i) CHF and the Active Fire area are directly force from FRP data derived from a modified version of the Dozier algorithm applied to the MOD12 product, (ii) and a new module of the buoyancy flux calculation is implemented instead of the original module based on the Morton Taylor and Turner equation. Furthermore the dynamical core of the plume model is also modified with a new entrainment scheme inspired from latest results from shallow convection parameterization. Optimization and validation of this new version of the Freitas PRM is based on fire plume characteristics derived from the official MISR plume height project and atmospheric profile extracted from the ECMWF analysis. The data set is (i) build up to only keep fires where plume height and FRP can be easily linked (i.e. avoid large fire cluster where individual plume might interact) and (ii) split per fire land cover type to optimize the constant of the buoyancy flux module and the entrainment scheme to different fire regime. Result shows that the new PRM is

  16. Modeling Forest Understory Fires in an Eastern Amazonian Landscape

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alencar, A. A. C.; Solorzano, L. A.; Nepstad, D. C.

    2004-01-01

    Forest understory fires are an increasingly important cause of forest impoverishment in Ammonia, but little is known of the landscape characteristics and climatic phenomena that determine their occurrence. We developed empirical functions relating the occurrence of understory fires to landscape features near Paragominas, a 35- yr-old ranching and logging center in eastern Ammonia. An historical sequence of maps of forest understory fire was created based on field interviews With local farmers and Landsat TM images. Several landscape features that might explain spatial variations in the occurrence of understory fires were also mapped and co-registered for each of the sample dates, including: forest fragment size and shape, forest impoverishment through logging and understory fires, source of ignition (settlements and charcoal pits), roads, forest edges, and others. The spatial relationship between forest understory fire and each landscape characteristic was tested by regression analyses. Fire probability models were then developed for various combinations of landscape characteristics. The analyses were conducted separately for years of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are associated with severe drought in eastern Amazonia, and non-ENS0 years. Most (91 %) of the forest area that burned during the 10-yr sequence caught fire during ENSO years, when severe drought may have increased both forest flammability and the escape of agricultural management fires. Forest understory fires were associated with forest edges, as reported in previous studies from Ammonia. But the strongest predictor of forest fire was the percentage of the forest fragment that had been previously logged or burned. Forest fragment size, distance to charcoal pits, distance to agricultural settlement, proximity to forest edge, and distance to roads were also correlated with forest understory fire. Logistic regression models using information on fragment degradation and distance to ignition

  17. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  18. Computer cast blast modelling

    SciTech Connect

    Chung, S.; McGill, M.; Preece, D.S.

    1994-12-31

    Cast blasting can be designed to utilize explosive energy effectively and economically for coal mining operations to remove overburden material. This paper compares two blast models known as DMC (Distinct Motion Code) and SABREX (Scientific Approach to Breaking Rock with Explosives). DMC applies discrete spherical elements interacted with the flow of explosive gases and the explicit time integration to track particle motion resulting from a blast. The input to this model includes multi-layer rock properties, and both loading geometry and explosives equation-of-state parameters. It enables the user to have a wide range of control over drill pattern and explosive loading design parameters. SABREX assumes that heave process is controlled by the explosive gases which determines the velocity and time of initial movement of blocks within the burden, and then tracks the motion of the blocks until they come to a rest. In order to reduce computing time, the in-flight collisions of blocks are not considered and the motion of the first row is made to limit the motion of subsequent rows. Although modelling a blast is a complex task, the advance in computer technology has increased the computing power of small work stations as well as PC (personal computers) to permit a much shorter turn-around time for complex computations. The DMC can perform a blast simulation in 0.5 hours on the SUN SPARC station 10-41 while the new SABREX 3.5 produces results of a cast blast in ten seconds on a 486-PC. Predicted percentage of cast and face velocities from both computer codes compare well with the measured results from a full scale cast blast.

  19. Computer Modeling Of Atomization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giridharan, M.; Ibrahim, E.; Przekwas, A.; Cheuch, S.; Krishnan, A.; Yang, H.; Lee, J.

    1994-01-01

    Improved mathematical models based on fundamental principles of conservation of mass, energy, and momentum developed for use in computer simulation of atomization of jets of liquid fuel in rocket engines. Models also used to study atomization in terrestrial applications; prove especially useful in designing improved industrial sprays - humidifier water sprays, chemical process sprays, and sprays of molten metal. Because present improved mathematical models based on first principles, they are minimally dependent on empirical correlations and better able to represent hot-flow conditions that prevail in rocket engines and are too severe to be accessible for detailed experimentation.

  20. Numerical Modelling by FLAC on Coal Fires in North China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusat, D.; Drebenstedt, C.

    2009-04-01

    Coal fires occur in many countries all over the world (e.g. Australia, China, India, Indonesia, USA and Russia) in underground and on surface. In China the most coal fires occur especially in the North. Economical and environmental damages are the negative effects of the coal fires: coal fires induce open fractures and fissures within the seam and neighbouring rocks. So that these are the predominant pathways for oxygen flow and exhaust gases from a coal fire. All over northern China there are a large number of coal fires, which cause and estimated yearly coal loss of between 100 and 200 million tons ([1], [2], [3]). Spontaneous combustion is a very complicated process and is influenced by number of factors. The process is an exothermic reaction in which the heat generated is dissipated by conduction to the surrounding environment, by radiation, by convection to the ventilation flow, and in some cases by evaporation of moisture from the coal [4]. The coal fires are very serious in China, and the dangerous extent of spontaneous combustion is bad which occupies about 72.9% in mining coal seams. During coal mining in China, the coal fires of spontaneous combustion are quite severity. The dangerous of coal spontaneous combustion has been in 56% of state major coalmines [5]. The 2D and 3D-simulation models describing coal fire damages are strong tools to predict fractures and fissures, to estimate the risk of coal fire propagation into neighbouring seams, to test and evaluate coal fire fighting and prevention methods. The numerical simulations of the rock mechanical model were made with the software for geomechanical and geotechnical calculations, the programs FLAC and FLAC3D [6]. To fight again the coal fires, exist several fire fighting techniques. Water, slurries or liquefied nitrogen can be injected to cool down the coal or cut of air supply with the backfill and thereby extinct the fire. Air supply also can be cut of by covering the coal by soil or sealing of the

  1. Formation of space-time structure in a forest-fire model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drossel, B.; Schwabl, F.

    1994-03-01

    We present a general stochastic forest-fire model which shows a variety of different structures depending on the parameter values. The model contains three possible states per site (tree, burning tree, empty site) and three parameters (tree growth probability p, lightning probability f, and immunity g). We review analytic and computer simulation results for a quasideterministic state with spiral-shaped fire fronts, for a percolation-like phase transition and a self-organized critical state. Possible applications to excitable systems are discussed.

  2. Computer modelling of minerals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catlow, C. R. A.; Parker, S. C.

    We review briefly the methodology and achievements of computer simulation techniques in modelling structural and defect properties of inorganic solids. Special attention is paid to the role of interatomic potentials in such studies. We discuss the extension of the techniques to the modelling of minerals, and describe recent results on the study of structural properties of silicates. In a paper of this length, it is not possible to give a comprehensive survey of this field. We shall concentrate on the recent work of our own group. The reader should consult Tossell (1977), Gibbs (1982), and Busing (1970) for examples of other computational studies of inorganic solids. The techniques we discuss are all based on the principle of energy minimization. Simpler, "bridge-buildingrdquo procedures, based on known bond-lengths, of which distance least squares (DLS) techniques are the best known are discussed, for example, in Dempsey and Strens (1974).

  3. Understanding student computational thinking with computational modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiken, John M.; Caballero, Marcos D.; Douglas, Scott S.; Burk, John B.; Scanlon, Erin M.; Thoms, Brian D.; Schatz, Michael F.

    2013-01-01

    Recently, the National Research Council's framework for next generation science standards highlighted "computational thinking" as one of its "fundamental practices". 9th Grade students taking a physics course that employed the Arizona State University's Modeling Instruction curriculum were taught to construct computational models of physical systems. Student computational thinking was assessed using a proctored programming assignment, written essay, and a series of think-aloud interviews, where the students produced and discussed a computational model of a baseball in motion via a high-level programming environment (VPython). Roughly a third of the students in the study were successful in completing the programming assignment. Student success on this assessment was tied to how students synthesized their knowledge of physics and computation. On the essay and interview assessments, students displayed unique views of the relationship between force and motion; those who spoke of this relationship in causal (rather than observational) terms tended to have more success in the programming exercise.

  4. Modelling wildland fire propagation by tracking random fronts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagnini, G.; Mentrelli, A.

    2013-11-01

    Wildland fire propagation is studied in literature by two alternative approaches, namely the reaction-diffusion equation and the level-set method. These two approaches are considered alternative each other because the solution of the reaction-diffusion equation is generally a continuous smooth function that has an exponential decay and an infinite support, while the level-set method, which is a front tracking technique, generates a sharp function with a finite support. However, these two approaches can indeed be considered complementary and reconciled. Turbulent hot-air transport and fire spotting are phenomena with a random character that are extremely important in wildland fire propagation. As a consequence the fire front gets a random character, too. Hence a tracking method for random fronts is needed. In particular, the level-set contourn is here randomized accordingly to the probability density function of the interface particle displacement. Actually, when the level-set method is developed for tracking a front interface with a random motion, the resulting averaged process emerges to be governed by an evolution equation of the reaction-diffusion type. In this reconciled approach, the rate of spread of the fire keeps the same key and characterizing role proper to the level-set approach. The resulting model emerges to be suitable to simulate effects due to turbulent convection as fire flank and backing fire, the faster fire spread because of the actions by hot air pre-heating and by ember landing, and also the fire overcoming a firebreak zone that is a case not resolved by models based on the level-set method. Moreover, from the proposed formulation it follows a correction for the rate of spread formula due to the mean jump-length of firebrands in the downwind direction for the leeward sector of the fireline contour.

  5. Computer modeling of polymers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Terry J.

    1988-01-01

    A Polymer Molecular Analysis Display System (p-MADS) was developed for computer modeling of polymers. This method of modeling allows for the theoretical calculation of molecular properties such as equilibrium geometries, conformational energies, heats of formations, crystal packing arrangements, and other properties. Furthermore, p-MADS has the following capabilities: constructing molecules from internal coordinates (bonds length, angles, and dihedral angles), Cartesian coordinates (such as X-ray structures), or from stick drawings; manipulating molecules using graphics and making hard copy representation of the molecules on a graphics printer; and performing geometry optimization calculations on molecules using the methods of molecular mechanics or molecular orbital theory.

  6. Modeling carbon monoxide spread in underground mine fires

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Liming; Zhou, Lihong; Smith, Alex C.

    2016-01-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a leading cause of mine fire fatalities in underground mines. To reduce the hazard of CO poisoning in underground mines, it is important to accurately predict the spread of CO in underground mine entries when a fire occurs. This paper presents a study on modeling CO spread in underground mine fires using both the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and the MFIRE programs. The FDS model simulating part of the mine ventilation network was calibrated using CO concentration data from full-scale mine fire tests. The model was then used to investigate the effect of airflow leakage on CO concentration reduction in the mine entries. The inflow of fresh air at the leakage location was found to cause significant CO reduction. MFIRE simulation was conducted to predict the CO spread in the entire mine ventilation network using both a constant heat release rate and a dynamic fire source created from FDS. The results from both FDS and MFIRE simulations are compared and the implications of the improved MFIRE capability are discussed. PMID:27069400

  7. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and potential application to fire and fuels management for the Savannah River Site.

    SciTech Connect

    Kurth, Laurie; Hollingsworth, LaWen; Shea, Dan

    2011-12-20

    This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for the Savannah River Site in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S. using three data sources: FCCS, LANDFIRE, and SWRA. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the U.S. using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern U.S. using satellite imagery.

  8. Computer simulation of vortex combustion processes in fire-tube boilers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khaustov, Sergei A.; Zavorin, Alexander S.; Buvakov, Konstantin V.; Kudryashova, Lidiya D.; Tshelkunova, Anastasiya V.

    2015-01-01

    The article describes computer simulation of the turbulent methane-air combustion in a fire-tube boiler furnace. Computer simulations performed for variants of once-through fire-tube furnace and reversive flame furnace. Options with various twist parameters of the fuel-air jet were examined. The flame structure has been determined computationally, contours of average speed, temperature and concentrations have been acquired. The results of calculations are presented in graphical form. Dependence of construction characteristics on vortex aerodynamic parameters was estimated. Turbulent combustion of natural gas in the reverse flame of fire-tube boiler was studied by means of the ANSYS Fluent 12.1.4 engineering simulation software.

  9. MIRO Computational Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broderick, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    A computational model calculates the excitation of water rotational levels and emission-line spectra in a cometary coma with applications for the Micro-wave Instrument for Rosetta Orbiter (MIRO). MIRO is a millimeter-submillimeter spectrometer that will be used to study the nature of cometary nuclei, the physical processes of outgassing, and the formation of the head region of a comet (coma). The computational model is a means to interpret the data measured by MIRO. The model is based on the accelerated Monte Carlo method, which performs a random angular, spatial, and frequency sampling of the radiation field to calculate the local average intensity of the field. With the model, the water rotational level populations in the cometary coma and the line profiles for the emission from the water molecules as a function of cometary parameters (such as outgassing rate, gas temperature, and gas and electron density) and observation parameters (such as distance to the comet and beam width) are calculated.

  10. Computer modeling of photodegradation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guillet, J.

    1986-01-01

    A computer program to simulate the photodegradation of materials exposed to terrestrial weathering environments is being developed. Input parameters would include the solar spectrum, the daily levels and variations of temperature and relative humidity, and materials such as EVA. A brief description of the program, its operating principles, and how it works was initially described. After that, the presentation focuses on the recent work of simulating aging in a normal, terrestrial day-night cycle. This is significant, as almost all accelerated aging schemes maintain a constant light illumination without a dark cycle, and this may be a critical factor not included in acceleration aging schemes. For outdoor aging, the computer model is indicating that the night dark cycle has a dramatic influence on the chemistry of photothermal degradation, and hints that a dark cycle may be needed in an accelerated aging scheme.

  11. The Antares computing model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kopper, Claudio; Antares Collaboration

    2013-10-01

    Completed in 2008, Antares is now the largest water Cherenkov neutrino telescope in the Northern Hemisphere. Its main goal is to detect neutrinos from galactic and extra-galactic sources. Due to the high background rate of atmospheric muons and the high level of bioluminescence, several on-line and off-line filtering algorithms have to be applied to the raw data taken by the instrument. To be able to handle this data stream, a dedicated computing infrastructure has been set up. The paper covers the main aspects of the current official Antares computing model. This includes an overview of on-line and off-line data handling and storage. In addition, the current usage of the “IceTray” software framework for Antares data processing is highlighted. Finally, an overview of the data storage formats used for high-level analysis is given.

  12. Wild Fire Emissions for the NOAA Operational HYSPLIT Smoke Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, H. C.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; McQueen, J.; DiMego, G.; Kondragunta, S.; Gorline, J.; Huang, J. P.; Stunder, B.; Stein, A. F.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

    2015-12-01

    Particulate Matter (PM) generated from forest fires often lead to degraded visibility and unhealthy air quality in nearby and downstream areas. To provide near-real time PM information to the state and local agencies, the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) operational HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) smoke modeling system (NWS/HYSPLIT smoke) provides the forecast of smoke concentration resulting from fire emissions driven by the NWS North American Model 12 km weather predictions. The NWS/HYSPLIT smoke incorporates the U.S. Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework (BlueSky) to provide smoke fire emissions along with the input fire locations from the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)'s Hazard Mapping System fire and smoke detection system. Experienced analysts inspect satellite imagery from multiple sensors onboard geostationary and orbital satellites to identify the location, size and duration of smoke emissions for the model. NWS/HYSPLIT smoke is being updated to use a newer version of USFS BlueSky. The updated BlueSky incorporates the Fuel Characteristic Classification System version 2 (FCCS2) over the continental U.S. and Alaska. FCCS2 includes a more detailed description of fuel loadings with additional plant type categories. The updated BlueSky also utilizes an improved fuel consumption model and fire emission production system. For the period of August 2014 and June 2015, NWS/HYSPLIT smoke simulations show that fire smoke emissions with updated BlueSky are stronger than the current operational BlueSky in the Northwest U.S. For the same comparisons, weaker fire smoke emissions from the updated BlueSky were observed over the middle and eastern part of the U.S. A statistical evaluation of NWS/HYSPLIT smoke predicted total column concentration compared to NOAA NESDIS GOES EAST Aerosol Smoke Product retrievals is underway. Preliminary results show that using the newer version

  13. Using Computational Fluid Dynamics in the forensic analysis of a prison fire.

    PubMed

    Jahn, Wolfram; Gonzalez, Orelvis; de Dios Rivera, Juan; Torero, José Luis

    2015-08-01

    On the 8th of December of 2010 a fire killed 81 inmates in a Chilean prison. While the collected evidence (including eye witness' accounts) indicated an intentional fire, started by a group of inmates who were fighting against another group and who ignited a mattress and threw it over a bunk bed inside the cell, it could not be established how fast the fire grew and whether the prison guards acted promptly enough to prevent the tragedy. In this context, the public defender office in charge of the case requested an independent investigation in order to determine the approximated time the fire started, and the temperature evolution of the padlocks at the cell doors during the initial stage, based on the construction characteristics of the prison, the existing materials and the evidence collected during the investigation. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) were used to analyse the movement of the smoke and to match the first appearance of smoke on CCTV recordings at locations away from the fire, allowing for the estimation of the time-line of events. The padlock temperatures as a result of hot gases from the fire was also simulated. It was shown that the fire grew quickly and became uncontrollable before the guards could intervene. By the time the guards arrived at the cells' door, the padlocks were shown to be too hot to be handled without protection. PMID:26126497

  14. Application of a mesoscale atmospheric coupled fire model BRAMS-SFIRE to Alentejo wildland fire and comparison of performance with the fire model WRF-SFIRE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menezes, Isilda; Freitas, Saulo; Stockler, Rafael; Mello, Rafael; Ribeiro, Nuno; Corte-Real, João; Surový, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Models of fuel with the identification of vegetation patterns of Montado ecosystem in Portugal was incorporated in the mesoscale Brazilian Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and coupled with a spread wildland fire model. The BRAMS-FIRE is a new system developed by the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil) and the Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrâneas (ICAAM, Portugal). The fire model used in this effort was originally, developed by Mandel et al. (2013) and further incorporated in the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Two grids of high spatial resolution were configured with surface input data and fuel models integrated for simulations using both models BRAMS-SFIRE and WRF-SFIRE. One grid was placed in the plain land and the other one in the hills to evaluate different types of fire propagation and calibrate BRAMS-SFIRE. The objective is simulating the effects of atmospheric circulation in local scale, namely the movements of the heat front and energy release associated to it, obtained by this two models in an episode of wildland fire which took place in Alentejo area in the last decade, for application to planning and evaluations of agro wildland fire risks. We aim to model the behavior of forest fires through a set of equations whose solutions provide quantitative values of one or more variables related to the propagation of fire, described by semi-empirical expressions that are complemented by experimental data allow to obtain the main variables related advancing the perimeter of the fire, as the propagation speed, the intensity of the fire front and fuel consumption and its interaction with atmospheric dynamic system References Mandel, J., J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, and M. Vejmelka, 2013. New features in WRF-SFIRE and the wildfire forecasting and danger system in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, submitted, Numerical Wildfires, Carg

  15. Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

    2010-05-01

    Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations

  16. Fossil-Fired Boilers

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1993-09-23

    Boiler Performance Model (BPM 3.0S) is a set of computer programs developed to analyze the performance of fossil-fired utility boilers. The programs can model a wide variety of boiler designs, and can model coal, oil, or natural gas firing. The programs are intended for use by engineers performing analyses of alternative fuels, alternative operating modes, or boiler modifications.

  17. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

  18. Computational modelling of atherosclerosis.

    PubMed

    Parton, Andrew; McGilligan, Victoria; O'Kane, Maurice; Baldrick, Francina R; Watterson, Steven

    2016-07-01

    Atherosclerosis is one of the principle pathologies of cardiovascular disease with blood cholesterol a significant risk factor. The World Health Organization estimates that approximately 2.5 million deaths occur annually because of the risk from elevated cholesterol, with 39% of adults worldwide at future risk. Atherosclerosis emerges from the combination of many dynamical factors, including haemodynamics, endothelial damage, innate immunity and sterol biochemistry. Despite its significance to public health, the dynamics that drive atherosclerosis remain poorly understood. As a disease that depends on multiple factors operating on different length scales, the natural framework to apply to atherosclerosis is mathematical and computational modelling. A computational model provides an integrated description of the disease and serves as an in silico experimental system from which we can learn about the disease and develop therapeutic hypotheses. Although the work completed in this area to date has been limited, there are clear signs that interest is growing and that a nascent field is establishing itself. This article discusses the current state of modelling in this area, bringing together many recent results for the first time. We review the work that has been done, discuss its scope and highlight the gaps in our understanding that could yield future opportunities. PMID:26438419

  19. Computer cast blast modelling

    SciTech Connect

    Chung, S.; McGill, M.; Preece, D.S.

    1994-07-01

    Cast blasting can be designed to utilize explosive energy effectively and economically for coal mining operations to remove overburden material. The more overburden removed by explosives, the less blasted material there is left to be transported with mechanical equipment, such as draglines and trucks. In order to optimize the percentage of rock that is cast, a higher powder factor than normal is required plus an initiation technique designed to produce a much greater degree of horizontal muck movement. This paper compares two blast models known as DMC (Distinct Motion Code) and SABREX (Scientific Approach to Breaking Rock with Explosives). DMC, applies discrete spherical elements interacted with the flow of explosive gases and the explicit time integration to track particle motion resulting from a blast. The input to this model includes multi-layer rock properties, and both loading geometry and explosives equation-of-state parameters. It enables the user to have a wide range of control over drill pattern and explosive loading design parameters. SABREX assumes that heave process is controlled by the explosive gases which determines the velocity and time of initial movement of blocks within the burden, and then tracks the motion of the blocks until they come to a rest. In order to reduce computing time, the in-flight collisions of blocks are not considered and the motion of the first row is made to limit the motion of subsequent rows. Although modelling a blast is a complex task, the DMC can perform a blast simulation in 0.5 hours on the SUN SPARCstation 10--41 while the new SABREX 3.5 produces results of a cast blast in ten seconds on a 486-PC computer. Predicted percentage of cast and face velocities from both computer codes compare well with the measured results from a full scale cast blast.

  20. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Page, Y.; Morton, D.; Bond-Lamberty, B.; Pereira, J. M. C.; Hurtt, G.

    2015-02-01

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human-Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spread over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.

  1. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    SciTech Connect

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spread over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.

  2. Scaling laws and simulation results for the self-organized critical forest-fire model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clar, S.; Drossel, B.; Schwabl, F.

    1994-08-01

    We discuss the properties of a self-organized critical forest-fire model which has been introduced recently [B. Drossel and F. Schwabl, Phys. Rev. Lett. 69, 1629 (1992)]. We derive scaling laws and define critical exponents. The values of these critical exponents are determined by computer simulations in one to eight dimensions. The simulations suggest a critical dimension dc=6 above which the critical exponents assume their mean-field values. Changing the lattice symmetry and allowing trees to be immune against fire, we show that the critical exponents are universal.

  3. The Zoning of Forest Fire Potential of Gulestan Province Forests Using Granular Computing and MODIS Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jalilzadeh Shadlouei, A.; Delavar, M. R.

    2013-09-01

    There are many vegetation in Iran. This is because of extent of Iran and its width. One of these vegetation is forest vegetation most prevalent in Northern provinces named Guilan, Mazandaran, Gulestan, Ardebil as well as East Azerbaijan. These forests are always threatened by natural forest fires so much so that there have been reports of tens of fires in recent years. Forest fires are one of the major environmental as well as economic, social and security concerns in the world causing much damages. According to climatology, forest fires are one of the important factors in the formation and dispersion of vegetation. Also, regarding the environment, forest fires cause the emission of considerable amounts of greenhouse gases, smoke and dust into the atmosphere which in turn causes the earth temperature to rise up and are unhealthy to humans, animals and vegetation. In agriculture droughts are the usual side effects of these fires. The causes of forest fires could be categorized as either Human or Natural Causes. Naturally, it is impossible to completely contain forest fires; however, areas with high potentials of fire could be designated and analysed to decrease the risk of fires. The zoning of forest fire potential is a multi-criteria problem always accompanied by inherent uncertainty like other multi-criteria problems. So far, various methods and algorithm for zoning hazardous areas via Remote Sensing (RS) and Geospatial Information System (GIS) have been offered. This paper aims at zoning forest fire potential of Gulestan Province of Iran forests utilizing Remote Sensing, Geospatial Information System, meteorological data, MODIS images and granular computing method. Granular computing is part of granular mathematical and one way of solving multi-criteria problems such forest fire potential zoning supervised by one expert or some experts , and it offers rules for classification with the least inconsistencies. On the basis of the experts' opinion, 6 determinative

  4. Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.

    2013-04-01

    Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with

  5. LIME SPRAY DRYER FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION COMPUTER MODEL USERS MANUAL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report describes a lime spray dryer/baghouse (FORTRAN) computer model that simulates SO2 removal and permits study of related impacts on design and economics as functions of design parameters and operating conditions for coal-fired electric generating units. The model allows ...

  6. Modeling of Electrical Cable Failure in a Dynamic Assessment of Fire Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucknor, Matthew D.

    complexity to existing cable failure techniques and tuned to empirical data can better approximate the temperature response of a cables located in tightly packed cable bundles. The new models also provide a way to determine the conditions insides a cable bundle which allows for separate treatment of cables on the interior of the bundle from cables on the exterior of the bundle. The results from the DET analysis show that the overall assessed probability of cable failure can be significantly reduced by more realistically accounting for the influence that the fire brigade has on a fire progression scenario. The shielding analysis results demonstrate a significant reduction in the temperature response of a shielded versus a non-shielded cable bundle; however the computational cost of using a fire progression model that can capture these effects may be prohibitive for performing DET analyses with currently available computational fluid dynamics models and computational resources.

  7. Modelled vs. reconstructed past fire dynamics - how can we compare?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brücher, Tim; Brovkin, Victor; Kloster, Silvia; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Power, Mitch J.

    2015-04-01

    Fire is an important process that affects climate through changes in CO2 emissions, albedo, and aerosols (Ward et al. 2012). Fire-history reconstructions from charcoal accumulations in sediment indicate that biomass burning has increased since the Last Glacial Maximum (Power et al. 2008; Marlon et al. 2013). Recent comparisons with transient climate model output suggest that this increase in global ?re activity is linked primarily to variations in temperature and secondarily to variations in precipitation (Daniau et al. 2012). In this study, we discuss the best way to compare global ?re model output with charcoal records. Fire models generate quantitative output for burned area and fire-related emissions of CO2, whereas charcoal data indicate relative changes in biomass burning for specific regions and time periods only. However, models can be used to relate trends in charcoal data to trends in quantitative changes in burned area or fire carbon emissions. Charcoal records are often reported as Z-scores (Power et al. 2008). Since Z-scores are non-linear power transformations of charcoal influxes, we must evaluate if, for example, a two-fold increase in the standardized charcoal reconstruction corresponds to a 2- or 200-fold increase in the area burned. In our study we apply the Z-score metric to the model output. This allows us to test how well the model can quantitatively reproduce the charcoal-based reconstructions and how Z-score metrics affect the statistics of model output. The Global Charcoal Database (GCD version 2.5; www.gpwg.org/gpwgdb.html) is used to determine regional and global paleofire trends from 218 sedimentary charcoal records covering part or all of the last 8 ka BP. To retrieve regional and global composites of changes in fire activity over the Holocene the time series of Z-scores are linearly averaged to achieve regional composites. A coupled climate-carbon cycle model, CLIMBA (Brücher et al. 2014), is used for this study. It consists of the

  8. MODELING DYNAMIC THERMAL PROPERTIES OF IMPORTED FIRE ANT MOUNDS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Ground-based thermal infrared imagery, 3-dimensional modeling, and spatial analyses were used to model daily fluctuation in the temperature of imported fire ant mounds and their surroundings. The thermal center of the mound moved in a predictable fashion from east-southeast to west-southwest during...

  9. WILDLAND FIRE EMISSION MODELING FOR CMAQ: AN UPDATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper summarizes recent efforts to improve the methods used for modeling wild land fire emissions both for retrospective modeling and real-time forecasting. These improvements focus on the temporal and spatial resolution of the activity data as well as the methods to estimat...

  10. Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

    2007-01-01

    Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

  11. A novel Fire-Model for the CABLE Land Surface Model applied to a Re-assessment of the Australian Continental Carbon Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieradzik, L. P.; Haverd, V. E.; Briggs, P.; Meyer, C. P.; Canadell, J.

    2014-12-01

    Fires play a major role in the carbon-cycle and the development of global vegetation, especially on the continent of Australia, where vegetation is prone to frequent fire occurences and where regional composition and stand-age distribution is regulated by fire. Furthermore, the probable changes of fire behaviour under a changing climate are still poorly understood and require further investigation.In this presentation we introduce a novel approach to simulate fire-frequencies, fire-intensities and the responses in vegetation. Fire frequencies are prescribed using SIMFIRE (Knorr et al., 2014) or GFED3 (e.g. Giglio et al., 2013). Fire-Line-Intensity (FLI) is computed from meteorological information and fuel loads which are state variables within the C-cycle component of CABLE. This FLI is used as an input to the tree-demography model POP (Population-Order-Physiology; Haverd et al., 2014). Within POP the fire-mortality depends on FLI and tree height distribution.Intensity-dependent combustion factors (CF) are then generated for and applied to live and litter carbon pools as well as the transfers from live pools to litter caused by fire. Thus, both fire and stand characteristics are taken into account which has a legacy effect on future events. Gross C-CO2 emissions from Australian wild fires are larger than Australian territorial fossil fuel emissions. However, the net effect of fire on the Australian terrestrial carbon budget is unknown. We address this by applying the newly-developed fire module, integrated within the CABLE land surface model, and optimised for the Australian region, to a reassessment of the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget.

  12. FireStem2D – A Two-Dimensional Heat Transfer Model for Simulating Tree Stem Injury in Fires

    PubMed Central

    Chatziefstratiou, Efthalia K.; Bohrer, Gil; Bova, Anthony S.; Subramanian, Ravishankar; Frasson, Renato P. M.; Scherzer, Amy; Butler, Bret W.; Dickinson, Matthew B.

    2013-01-01

    FireStem2D, a software tool for predicting tree stem heating and injury in forest fires, is a physically-based, two-dimensional model of stem thermodynamics that results from heating at the bark surface. It builds on an earlier one-dimensional model (FireStem) and provides improved capabilities for predicting fire-induced mortality and injury before a fire occurs by resolving stem moisture loss, temperatures through the stem, degree of bark charring, and necrotic depth around the stem. We present the results of numerical parameterization and model evaluation experiments for FireStem2D that simulate laboratory stem-heating experiments of 52 tree sections from 25 trees. We also conducted a set of virtual sensitivity analysis experiments to test the effects of unevenness of heating around the stem and with aboveground height using data from two studies: a low-intensity surface fire and a more intense crown fire. The model allows for improved understanding and prediction of the effects of wildland fire on injury and mortality of trees of different species and sizes. PMID:23894599

  13. Modelling wildland fire propagation by tracking random fronts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagnini, G.; Mentrelli, A.

    2014-08-01

    Wildland fire propagation is studied in the literature by two alternative approaches, namely the reaction-diffusion equation and the level-set method. These two approaches are considered alternatives to each other because the solution of the reaction-diffusion equation is generally a continuous smooth function that has an exponential decay, and it is not zero in an infinite domain, while the level-set method, which is a front tracking technique, generates a sharp function that is not zero inside a compact domain. However, these two approaches can indeed be considered complementary and reconciled. Turbulent hot-air transport and fire spotting are phenomena with a random nature and they are extremely important in wildland fire propagation. Consequently, the fire front gets a random character, too; hence, a tracking method for random fronts is needed. In particular, the level-set contour is randomised here according to the probability density function of the interface particle displacement. Actually, when the level-set method is developed for tracking a front interface with a random motion, the resulting averaged process emerges to be governed by an evolution equation of the reaction-diffusion type. In this reconciled approach, the rate of spread of the fire keeps the same key and characterising role that is typical of the level-set approach. The resulting model emerges to be suitable for simulating effects due to turbulent convection, such as fire flank and backing fire, the faster fire spread being because of the actions by hot-air pre-heating and by ember landing, and also due to the fire overcoming a fire-break zone, which is a case not resolved by models based on the level-set method. Moreover, from the proposed formulation, a correction follows for the formula of the rate of spread which is due to the mean jump length of firebrands in the downwind direction for the leeward sector of the fireline contour. The presented study constitutes a proof of concept, and it

  14. Computer Model Locates Environmental Hazards

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    Catherine Huybrechts Burton founded San Francisco-based Endpoint Environmental (2E) LLC in 2005 while she was a student intern and project manager at Ames Research Center with NASA's DEVELOP program. The 2E team created the Tire Identification from Reflectance model, which algorithmically processes satellite images using turnkey technology to retain only the darkest parts of an image. This model allows 2E to locate piles of rubber tires, which often are stockpiled illegally and cause hazardous environmental conditions and fires.

  15. Computational modelling of polymers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celarier, Edward A.

    1991-01-01

    Polymeric materials and polymer/graphite composites show a very diverse range of material properties, many of which make them attractive candidates for a variety of high performance engineering applications. Their properties are ultimately determined largely by their chemical structure, and the conditions under which they are processed. It is the aim of computational chemistry to be able to simulate candidate polymers on a computer, and determine what their likely material properties will be. A number of commercially available software packages purport to predict the material properties of samples, given the chemical structures of their constituent molecules. One such system, Cerius, has been in use at LaRC. It is comprised of a number of modules, each of which performs a different kind of calculation on a molecule in the programs workspace. Particularly, interest is in evaluating the suitability of this program to aid in the study of microcrystalline polymeric materials. One of the first model systems examined was benzophenone. The results of this investigation are discussed.

  16. Periodically forced leaky integrate-and-fire model.

    PubMed

    Pakdaman, K

    2001-04-01

    The discharge pattern of periodically forced leaky integrate-and-fire models is studied. While previous analyses have been mainly concerned with the response of this model to sinusoidal stimulation, our results hold for arbitrary periodic inputs. It is shown that, for any periodic input, the map representing the relation between input phases at consecutive discharge times can be restricted to a piecewise continuous, orientation preserving circle map. This implies that (i) the rotation number is well defined and independent of the initial condition, and (ii) in the same way as for sinusoidal forcing, other forms of periodic stimuli can evoke only one of four types of response, namely, phase locking, quasiperiodic discharges, nonchaotic aperiodic firing, and termination of the discharge after a finite number of firings. PMID:11308877

  17. The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, J. S.; Prins, E. M.; Westphal, D.; Richardson, K.; Christopher, S.; Schmidt, C.; Theisen, M.; Eck, T.; Reid, E. A.

    2001-12-01

    The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) project was initiated by NASA, the US Navy and NOAA to monitor biomass burning and burning emissions on a global scale. The idea behind the mission is to integrate remote sensing data with global and regional transport models in real time for the purpose of providing the scientific community with smoke and fire products for planning and research purposes. FLAMBE is currently utilizing real time satellite data from GOES satellites, fire products based on the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) are generated for the Western Hemisphere every 30 minutes with only a 90 minute processing delay. We are currently collaborating with other investigators to gain global coverage. Once generated, the fire products are used to input smoke fluxes into the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System, where advection forecasts are performed for up to 6 days. Subsequent radiative transfer calculations are used to estimate top of atmosphere and surface radiative forcing as well as surface layer visibility. Near real time validation is performed using field data collected by Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Sun photometers. In this paper we fully describe the FLAMBE project and data availability. Preliminary result from the previous year will also be presented, with an emphasis on the development of algorithms to determine smoke emission fluxes from individual fire products. Comparisons to AERONET Sun photometer data will be made.

  18. Applicability of an integrated plume rise model for the dispersion from wild-land fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kukkonen, J.; Nikmo, J.; Sofiev, M.; Riikonen, K.; Petäjä, T.; Virkkula, A.; Levula, J.; Schobesberger, S.; Webber, D. M.

    2014-11-01

    We have presented an overview of a mathematical model, BUOYANT, that was originally designed for the evaluation of the dispersion of buoyant plumes originated from major warehouse fires. The model addresses the variations of the cross-plume integrated properties of a buoyant plume in the presence of a vertically varying atmosphere. The model also includes a treatment for a rising buoyant plume interacting with an inversion layer. We have compared the model predictions with the data of two prescribed wild-land fire experiments. For the SCAR-C experiment in Quinault (US) in 1994, the predicted vertical extents of the plume at maximum plume rise were between 500 and 800 m and between 200 and 700 m, using two alternative meteorological data sets. The corresponding observed injection heights of the aerosol particles measured using an airborne lidar (light detection and ranging) ranged from 250 to 600 m. For the prescribed burning experiment in Hyytiälä (Finland) in 2009, the model predictions were compared with plume elevations and diameters, determined based on particulate matter number concentration measurements onboard an aeroplane. However, the agreement between modelled and measured results substantially depends on how the properties of the source term are evaluated, especially regarding the convective heat fluxes from the fire. The results demonstrate that in field experiments on wild-land fires, there are substantial uncertainties in estimating both (i) the source terms for the atmospheric dispersion computations and (ii) the relevant vertical meteorological profiles.

  19. Fire severity estimated from remote sensing data to evaluate the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire-Environment (CAWFE) model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliva, P.; Coen, J.; Schroeder, W.

    2013-12-01

    Fire severity defined as the degree of damage originated from fire on soils and vegetation immediately after the fire, is affected by weather conditions (i.e. wind, air humidity), terrain characteristics (i.e. slope, aspect) and fuel properties (i.e. tree density, fuel moisture content). In this study we evaluated the relationships between fire severity estimated from Earth Observing Advance Land Imager (EO-ALI) images and the heat fluxes produced by the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire-Environment (CAWFE) model (Coen 2013). We present the results for a large fire occurred in New Mexico in June 2012 which burned 44,330 acres. The EO-ALI sensor (30 m spatial resolution) has nine spectral bands, six of them were designed to mimic Landsat bands and the three additional bands cover 443, 867.5 and 1250 nm. We used a physically-based approach to estimate fire severity developed by De Santis et al. (2009). This method classifies the satellite image into Geophysical Composite burned index (GeoCBI) values, which represent the fire severity within the fire-affected area, using radiative transfer model simulated spectra as reference. This method has been used to characterize fire severity levels using Landsat images and validated with field data (R2 > 0.85). Based on those results we expected a better performance of EO-ALI images due to its improved spectral resolution. On the other hand, CAWFE is composed of two parts: a numerical weather prediction model and a fire behavior module that represents the growth of a wildland fire in response to factors such as wind, terrain, and fuels, and includes the fire's impact on the atmosphere. To perform the evaluation we selected a stratified random sample by fire severity level. The values of maximum heat flux (sensible, latent), and total heat flux showed a higher correlation with the higher levels of fire severity (GeoCBI: 2.8-3) than with the medium levels of fire severity (GeoCBI: 2.3-2.8). However, the total heat flux proved to

  20. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference

    PubMed Central

    Cuevas Rivera, Dario; Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J.

    2015-01-01

    The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an ‘intelligent coincidence detector’, which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena. PMID:26451888

  1. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference.

    PubMed

    Cuevas Rivera, Dario; Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2015-10-01

    The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an 'intelligent coincidence detector', which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena. PMID:26451888

  2. Observed and Modeled Prescribed Fire Emissions and Transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strenfel, S. J.; Clements, C. B.; Freedman, F. R.; Hiers, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    Prescribed fire is a frequently utilized land-management tool in the Southeastern US. It is estimated > one million acres are consumed annually by prescribed fire in Georgia (Lee et al., 2005) and eight million acres in southern states combined (Wade and Lundsford, 1998). In situ data were obtained from three summer (wet season) and winter (dry) fires with a 10 m instrumented tower at the Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Center at Ichauway. Fuel consumption and fire-return interval for each burn was ~ 2 tons acre-1 and 2 years, respectively. Emission factors for PM2.5, BC, CO and CO2 were derived using a carbon mass-balance method. Summer (winter) PM2.5, CO, and CO2 emission factors were 13.7 ± 4.1 g kg-1 (8.6 ± 2.0), 25.9 ± 5.2 (16.1 ± 2.2), 1796 ± 30 (1852 ± 13), respectively. Calculated emission factors were compared to emission factors derived from Consume 3.0 model runs. Dry-season winter fires yielded the highest combustion efficiencies. Pollutant dispersion and transport was evaluated with AERMOD utilizing the emission factors and observed meteorological conditions, and results generally agree with in situ measurements made downwind of each burn unit.

  3. A mathematical model of a large open fire

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harsha, P. T.; Bragg, W. N.; Edelman, R. B.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model capable of predicting the detailed characteristics of large, liquid fuel, axisymmetric, pool fires is described. The predicted characteristics include spatial distributions of flame gas velocity, soot concentration and chemical specie concentrations including carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, water, unreacted oxygen, unreacted fuel and nitrogen. Comparisons of the predictions with experimental values are also given.

  4. 8. Photocopy of photograph showing model display NIKE Hercules firing ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    8. Photocopy of photograph showing model display NIKE Hercules firing battery, ARADCOM Argus pg. 11, from Institute for Military History, Carlisle Barracks, Carlisle, PA, March 1, 1961 - NIKE Missile Battery PR-79, East Windsor Road south of State Route 101, Foster, Providence County, RI

  5. (EDMUNDS, WA) WILDLAND FIRE EMISSIONS MODELING: INTEGRATING BLUESKY AND SMOKE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation is a status update of the BlueSky emissions modeling system. BlueSky-EM has been coupled with the Sparse Matrix Operational Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) system, and is now available as a tool for estimating emissions from wildland fires

  6. Increased neuronal firing in computer simulations of sodium channel mutations that cause generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures plus.

    PubMed

    Spampanato, Jay; Aradi, Ildiko; Soltesz, Ivan; Goldin, Alan L

    2004-05-01

    Generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures plus (GEFS+) is an autosomal dominant familial syndrome with a complex seizure phenotype. It is caused by mutations in one of 3 voltage-gated sodium channel subunit genes (SCN1B, SCN1A, and SCN2A) and the GABA(A) receptor gamma2 subunit gene (GBRG2). The biophysical characterization of 3 mutations (T875M, W1204R, and R1648H) in SCN1A, the gene encoding the CNS voltage-gated sodium channel alpha subunit Na(v)1.1, demonstrated a variety of functional effects. The T875M mutation enhanced slow inactivation, the W1204R mutation shifted the voltage dependency of activation and inactivation in the negative direction, and the R1648H mutation accelerated recovery from inactivation. To determine how these changes affect neuronal firing, we used the NEURON simulation software to design a computational model based on the experimentally determined properties of each GEFS+ mutant sodium channel and a delayed rectifier potassium channel. The model predicted that W1204R decreased the threshold, T875M increased the threshold, and R1648H did not affect the threshold for firing a single action potential. Despite the different effects on the threshold for firing a single action potential, all of the mutations resulted in an increased propensity to fire repetitive action potentials. In addition, each mutation was capable of driving repetitive firing in a mixed population of mutant and wild-type channels, consistent with the dominant nature of these mutations. These results suggest a common physiological mechanism for epileptogenesis resulting from sodium channel mutations that cause GEFS+. PMID:14702334

  7. Supporting FIRE-suppression strategies combining fire spread MODelling and SATellite data in an operational context in Portugal: the FIRE-MODSAT project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.

    2014-05-01

    Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the

  8. Workshop on Computational Turbulence Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    This document contains presentations given at Workshop on Computational Turbulence Modeling held 15-16 Sep. 1993. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the current status and future development of turbulence modeling in computational fluid dynamics for aerospace propulsion systems. Papers cover the following topics: turbulence modeling activities at the Center for Modeling of Turbulence and Transition (CMOTT); heat transfer and turbomachinery flow physics; aerothermochemistry and computational methods for space systems; computational fluid dynamics and the k-epsilon turbulence model; propulsion systems; and inlet, duct, and nozzle flow.

  9. Workshop on Computational Turbulence Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    This document contains presentations given at Workshop on Computational Turbulence Modeling held 15-16 Sep. 1993. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the current status and future development of turbulence modeling in computational fluid dynamics for aerospace propulsion systems. Papers cover the following topics: turbulence modeling activities at the Center for Modeling of Turbulence and Transition (CMOTT); heat transfer and turbomachinery flow physics; aerothermochemistry and computational methods for space systems; computational fluid dynamics and the k-epsilon turbulence model; propulsion systems; and inlet, duct, and nozzle flow. Separate abstracts have been prepared for articles from this report.

  10. COMPUTER MODELS/EPANET

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pipe network flow analysis was among the first civil engineering applications programmed for solution on the early commercial mainframe computers in the 1960s. Since that time, advancements in analytical techniques and computing power have enabled us to solve systems with tens o...

  11. Modelling of impact of fire on safe people evacuation in tunnel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasa, J.; Valasek, L.; Halada, L.; Weisenpacher, P.

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and its evacuation module, Evac for modelling fire and people evacuation in a road tunnel is illustrated. For given fire scenario and traffic situation in the tunnel, behaviour of individual evacuees as well as groups of evacuees is analyzed in order to demonstrate the impact of fire on people evacuation. Some specific features of the use of FDS+Evac for simulation of people evacuation in case of tunnel fire are also discussed.

  12. Simulating the effects of fire and climate change on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes using the ecological process model FIRE-BGC

    SciTech Connect

    Keane, R.E.; Ryan, K.; Running, S.W.

    1995-12-31

    A mechanistic successional model, FIRE-BGC (a FIRE BioGeoChemical succession model), has been developed to investigate the role of fire and climate on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests. This FIRE-BGC application explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. Predictions of evapotranspiration are contrasted with and without fire over 200 years of simulation for the McDonald Drainage, Glacier National Park under current climate conditions are provided as an example of the potential of FIRE-BGC.

  13. 29 CFR Appendix A to Subpart P of... - Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory)

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory) A Appendix A to Subpart P of Part 1915 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH...—Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory) Model Fire Safety Plan Note: This appendix is non-mandatory...

  14. 29 CFR Appendix A to Subpart P to... - Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory)

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory) A Appendix A to Subpart P to Part 1915 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH...—Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory) Model Fire Safety Plan Note: This appendix is non-mandatory...

  15. Assessing the outstanding 2003 fire events in Portugal with a Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trigo, Ricardo; Jerez, Sonia; Camara, Carlos; Montávez, Juan Pedro

    2013-04-01

    The heatwave that struck western Iberia in the early days of August 2003 was characterized by record high values of both maximum (47.3°C) and minimum (30.6°c) temperatures in Portugal, associated with extremely low humidity levels and relatively intense wind speed (Trigo et al., 2006). These conditions triggered the most devastating sequence of large fires ever registered in Portugal. The estimated total burnt area was about 450.000 ha, including 280.000 ha of forest (Pereira et al., 2011). The outstanding total burnt area value corresponds to roughly 5% of the Portuguese territory, and represents approximately twice the previous maximum observed in 1998 (~220.000 ha), and about four times the long-term average observed between 1980 and 2004. Here we characterise this unusual episode using meteorological fields obtained from both observations and a regional climate model. In this work we use the longest (49-years) high-resolution regional climate simulation available driven by reanalysis data spanning from 1959 to 2007 and covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. This long run was obtained using the MM5 model with a spatial resolution of 10 km. Using this high spatial and temporal resolution we have computed the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System to produce hourly values of fire risk. The FWI System consists of six components that account for the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behaviour (van Wagner, 1987). We show the temporal evolution of high resolution patterns for several fire related variables during the most important days for triggering new fires (the first week of August 2003). Besides the absolute value of Tmax, Tmin, wind (speed and direction), relative humidity and FWI we also evaluate the corresponding anomalies of these fields, obtained after removing the long-term smoothed daily climatology. Pereira M.G., Malamude B.D., Trigo R.M., Alves P.I. (2011) "The History and Characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese Rural Fire Database

  16. On Fire regime modelling using satellite TM time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oddi, F.; . Ghermandi, L.; Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

    2009-04-01

    Wildfires can cause an environment deterioration modifying vegetation dynamics because they have the capacity of changing vegetation diversity and physiognomy. In semiarid regions, like the northwestern Patagonia, fire disturbance is also important because it could impact on the potential productivity of the ecosystem. There is reduction plant biomass and with that reducing the animal carrying capacity and/or the forest site quality with negative economics implications. Therefore knowledge of the fires regime in a region is of great importance to understand and predict the responses of vegetation and its possible effect on the regional economy. Studies of this type at a landscape level can be addressed using GIS tools. Satellite imagery allows detect burned areas and through a temporary analysis can be determined to fire regime and detecting changes at landscape scale. The study area of work is located on the east of the city of Bariloche including the San Ramon Ranch (22,000 ha) and its environs in the ecotone formed by the sub Antarctic forest and the patagonian steppe. We worked with multiespectral Landsat TM images and Landsat ETM + 30m spatial resolution obtained at different times. For the spatial analysis we used the software Erdas Imagine 9.0 and ArcView 3.3. A discrimination of vegetation types has made and was determined areas affected by fires in different years. We determined the level of change on vegetation induced by fire. In the future the use of high spatial resolution images combined with higher spectral resolution will allows distinguish burned areas with greater precision on study area. Also the use of digital terrain models derived from satellite imagery associated with climatic variables will allows model the relationship between them and the dynamics of vegetation.

  17. EARTH, WIND AND FIRE: BUILDING METEOROLOGICALLY-SENSITIVE BIOGENIC AND WILDLAND FIRE EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR AIR QUALITY MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Emission estimates are important for ensuring the accuracy of atmospheric chemical transport models. Estimates of biogenic and wildland fire emissions, because of their sensitivity to meteorological conditions, need to be carefully constructed and closely linked with a meteorolo...

  18. Combustion space modelling of oxy-fuel fired glass melter

    SciTech Connect

    Richter, W. , Irvine, CA ); Kobayashi, Hisashi )

    1990-01-01

    A three-dimensional heat transfer code based on the zonal method was applied to evaluate the oxygen-fuel firing of a cross-fired regenerative glass melter. A furnace end section which includes the bridge wall and a pair of the regenerator ports was modelled in detail for a base air case and several oxy-fuel firing cases. The firing rates of two oxy-fuel burners that matched the heat flux distribution of the base air case were determined. The effects of the height and angle of the oxy-fuel burners on the temperature and heat flux distributions were predicted to evaluate the optimum burner placement of the oxy-fuel burners. The main conclusions of the simulation are that; (1) in spite of the small flame diameters, the high momentum low flame temperature oxy-fuel burners can create temperature and heat flux distributions equivalent to those of the base air case with a wide flame and (2) both lower burner elevation and angling of the oxy-fuel burners toward the glass surface tend to increase heat transfer to glass surface and reduce the peak refractory temperatures. 12 refs., 21 figs., 4 tabs.

  19. Modeling hydrogen-cyanide absorption in fires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cagliostro, D. E.; Islas, A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for predicting blood concentrations of cyanide as functions of exposure time to constant levels of cyanide in the atmosphere. A toxic gas (which may form as a result of decomposition of combustion materials used in transportation vehicles) is breathed into the alveolar space and transferred from the alveolar space to the blood by a first-order process, dependent on the concentration of the toxicant in the alveolar space. The model predicts that blood cyanide levels are more sensitive to the breathing cycle than to blood circulation. A model estimate of the relative effects of CO and HCN atmospheres, generated in an experimental chamber with an epoxy polymer, shows that toxic effects of cyanide occur long before those of carbon monoxide.

  20. Modeling of multi-strata forest fire severity using Landsat TM Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Qingmin; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2011-02-01

    Most of fire severity studies use field measures of composite burn index (CBI) to represent forest fire severity and fit the relationships between CBI and Landsat imagery derived differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) to predict and map fire severity at unsampled locations. However, less attention has been paid on the multi-strata forest fire severity, which represents fire activities and ecological responses at different forest layers. In this study, using field measured fire severity across five forest strata of dominant tree, intermediate-sized tree, shrub, herb, substrate layers, and the aggregated measure of CBI as response variables, we fit statistical models with predictors of Landsat TM bands, Landsat derived NBR or dNBR, image differencing, and image ratioing data. We model multi-strata forest fire in the historical recorded largest wildfire in California, the Big Sur Basin Complex fire. We explore the potential contributions of the post-fire Landsat bands, image differencing, image ratioing to fire severity modeling and compare with the widely used NBR and dNBR. Models using combinations of post-fire Landsat bands perform much better than NBR, dNBR, image differencing, and image ratioing. We predict and map multi-strata forest fire severity across the whole Big Sur fire areas, and find that the overall measure CBI is not optimal to represent multi-strata forest fire severity.

  1. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

  2. Applicability of an integrated plume rise model for the dispersion from wild-land fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kukkonen, J.; Nikmo, J.; Sofiev, M.; Riikonen, K.; Petäjä, T.; Virkkula, A.; Levula, J.; Schobesberger, S.; Webber, D. M.

    2014-01-01

    We have presented an overview of a mathematical model, BUOYANT, that was originally designed for the evaluation of the dispersion of buoyant plumes originated from major warehouse fires. The model addresses the variations of the cross-plume integrated properties of a buoyant plume in the presence of a vertically varying atmosphere. The model also includes a treatment for a rising buoyant plume interacting with an inversion layer. We have compared the model predictions with the data of two prescribed wild-land fire experiments. For the SCAR-C experiment in Quinault (US) in 1994, the predicted vertical extents of the plume at maximum plume rise were between 500-800 m and 200-700 m, using two alternative meteorological datasets. The corresponding observed injection heights of the aerosol particles measured using an airborne LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) ranged from 250 and 600 m. For the prescribed burning experiment in Hyytiälä (Finland) in 2009, the model predictions were compared with plume elevations and diameters, determined based on particulate matter number concentration measurements on board an aeroplane. The agreement of modelled and measured results was good, provided that one assumes the measured maximum convective heat fluxes as input data for the model. The results demonstrate that in field experiments on wild-land fires, there are substantial uncertainties in estimating both (i) the source terms for the atmospheric dispersion computations, and (ii) the relevant vertical meteorological profiles. The results provide more confidence that cross-plume integrated mathematical models, such as the BUOYANT model, can be used to fairly good accuracy for evaluating the dispersion from major wild-land fires.

  3. Computational Models for Neuromuscular Function

    PubMed Central

    Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J.; Hoffmann, Heiko; Kurse, Manish U.; Kutch, Jason J.; Theodorou, Evangelos A.

    2011-01-01

    Computational models of the neuromuscular system hold the potential to allow us to reach a deeper understanding of neuromuscular function and clinical rehabilitation by complementing experimentation. By serving as a means to distill and explore specific hypotheses, computational models emerge from prior experimental data and motivate future experimental work. Here we review computational tools used to understand neuromuscular function including musculoskeletal modeling, machine learning, control theory, and statistical model analysis. We conclude that these tools, when used in combination, have the potential to further our understanding of neuromuscular function by serving as a rigorous means to test scientific hypotheses in ways that complement and leverage experimental data. PMID:21687779

  4. Modelling fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Cadule, P.; Thonicke, K.; Archibald, S.; Poulter, B.; Hao, W. M.; Hantson, S.; Mouillot, F.; Friedlingstein, P.; Maignan, F.; Viovy, N.

    2014-04-01

    Fire is an important global ecological process that determines the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. The modelling of fire is critical for understanding its role in both historical and future changes in terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE, which was then used to simulate the historical burned area and the fire regime for the 20th century. For 2001-2006, the simulated global spatial extent of fire occurrence agrees well with that given by the satellite-derived burned area datasets (L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, GFED3.1) and captures 78-92% of global total burned area depending on which dataset is used for comparison. The simulated global annual burned area is 329 Mha yr-1, which falls within the range of 287-384 Mha yr-1 given by the three global observation datasets and is close to the 344 Mha yr-1 given by GFED3.1 data when crop fires are excluded. The simulated long-term trends of burned area agree best with the observation data in regions where fire is mainly driven by the climate variation, such as boreal Russia (1920-2009), and the US state of Alaska and Canada (1950-2009). At the global scale, the simulated decadal fire trend over the 20th century is in moderate agreement with the historical reconstruction, possibly because of the uncertainties of past estimates, and because land-use change fires and fire suppression are not explicitly included in the model. Over the globe, the size of large fires (the 95th quantile fire size) is systematically underestimated by the model compared with the fire patch data as reconstructed from MODIS 500 m burned area data. Two case studies of fire size distribution in boreal North America and southern Africa indicate that both the number and the size of big fires are underestimated, which could be related with too low fire spread rate (in the case of static

  5. Cougarblight EZ, a substantial update of the Cougarblight fire blight infection risk model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The development of practical, but reasonably accurate fire blight infection risk models is considered a critical factor in the management of fire blight. Cougarblight, an empirically designed fire blight infection risk assessment model, was originally developed prior to significant recent advances ...

  6. Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS). Volume 6: Computer data. Part 2: Residual-fired nocogeneration process boiler

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knightly, W. F.

    1980-01-01

    Computer generated data on the performance of the cogeneration energy conversion system are presented. Performance parameters included fuel consumption and savings, capital costs, economics, and emissions of residual fired process boilers.

  7. Computer-Aided Geometry Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shoosmith, J. N. (Compiler); Fulton, R. E. (Compiler)

    1984-01-01

    Techniques in computer-aided geometry modeling and their application are addressed. Mathematical modeling, solid geometry models, management of geometric data, development of geometry standards, and interactive and graphic procedures are discussed. The applications include aeronautical and aerospace structures design, fluid flow modeling, and gas turbine design.

  8. The use of computer models to predict temperature and smoke movement in high bay spaces

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Notarianni, Kathy A.; Davis, William D.

    1993-01-01

    The Building and Fire Research Laboratory (BFRL) was given the opportunity to make measurements during fire calibration tests of the heat detection system in an aircraft hangar with a nominal 30.4 (100 ft) ceiling height near Dallas, TX. Fire gas temperatures resulting from an approximately 8250 kW isopropyl alcohol pool fire were measured above the fire and along the ceiling. The results of the experiments were then compared to predictions from the computer fire models DETACT-QS, FPETOOL, and LAVENT. In section A of the analysis conducted, DETACT-QS AND FPETOOL significantly underpredicted the gas temperature. LAVENT at the position below the ceiling corresponding to maximum temperature and velocity provided better agreement with the data. For large spaces, hot gas transport time and an improved fire plume dynamics model should be incorporated into the computer fire model activation routines. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, HARWELL FLOW3D, was then used to model the hot gas movement in the space. Reasonable agreement was found between the temperatures predicted from the CFD calculations and the temperatures measured in the aircraft hangar. In section B, an existing NASA high bay space was modeled using the CFD model. The NASA space was a clean room, 27.4 m (90 ft) high with forced horizontal laminar flow. The purpose of this analysis is to determine how the existing fire detection devices would respond to various size fires in the space. The analysis was conducted for 32 MW, 400 kW, and 40 kW fires.

  9. Improving the representation of fire disturbance in dynamic vegetation models by assimilating satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kantzas, E. P.; Quegan, S.; Lomas, M.

    2015-03-01

    Fire provides an impulsive and stochastic pathway for carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to enter the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being of similar magnitude to Net Ecosystem Exchange in many biomes, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in General Circulation Models contain poor representations of fire behaviour and dynamics such as propagation and distribution of fire sizes. A model-independent methodology is developed which addresses this issue. Its focus is on the Arctic where fire is linked to permafrost dynamics and on occasion can release great amounts of carbon from carbon-rich organic soils. Connected Component Labeling is used to identify individual fire events across Canada and Russia from daily, low-resolution burned area satellite products, and the results are validated against historical data. This allows the creation of a fire database holding information on area burned and temporal evolution of fires in space and time. A method of assimilating the statistical distribution of fire area into a DVM whilst maintaining its Fire Return Interval is then described. The algorithm imposes a regional scale spatially dependent fire regime on a sub-scale spatially independent model (point model); the fire regime is described by large scale statistical distributions of fire intensity and spatial extent, and the temporal dynamics (fire return intervals) are determined locally. This permits DVMs to estimate many aspects of post-fire dynamics that cannot occur under their current representations of fire, as is illustrated by considering the evolution of land cover, biomass and Net Ecosystem Exchange after a fire.

  10. Two-target game model of an air combat with fire-and-forget all-aspect missiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davidovitz, A.; Shinar, J.

    1989-01-01

    An air combat duel between similar aggressive fighter aircraft, both equipped with the same type of guided missiles, is formulated as a two-target differential game using the dynamic model of the game of two identical cars. Each of the identical target sets represents the effective firing envelope of an all-aspect fire-and-forget air-to-air missile. The firing range limits depend on the target aspect angle and are approximated by analytical functions. The maximum range, computed by taking into account the optimal missile avoidance maneuver of the target, determines the no-escape firing envelope. The solution consists of the decomposition of the game space into four regions: the respective winning zones of the two opponents, the draw zone, and the region where the game terminates by a mutual kill. The solution provides a new insight for future air combat analysis.

  11. Simulation models of subsea umbilicals, flowlines and fire pump systems

    SciTech Connect

    Bratland, O.

    1995-12-01

    This paper discusses mathematical models suited for simulating transient and stationary flow in umbilicals, flowlines and fire pump systems. Most emphasis is put on subsea systems. Measurements are compared with simulations and good agreement has been achieved. The results show that the dynamics and response time in a hydraulic subsea control system can be influenced by parameters like umbilical elastic properties, umbilical visco-elastic properties, transition between laminar and turbulent flow, and some frequency-dependant propagation mechanisms. The paper discusses typical problems in different flow systems. It is also shown how the relevant umbilical properties can be determined by simple measurements on a short test section of the umbilical. In fire pump systems, cavitation is typically the main transient problem. In long oil and gas pipelines, the friction dominates and an accurate representation of the friction is the best contribution to relevant simulation results.

  12. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  13. Mediterranean maquis fuel model development and mapping to support fire modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacciu, V.; Arca, B.; Pellizzaro, G.; Salis, M.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

    2009-04-01

    Fuel load data and fuel model maps represent a critical issue for fire spread and behaviour modeling. The availability of accurate input data at different spatial and temporal scales can allow detailed analysis and predictions of fire hazard and fire effects across a landscape. Fuel model data are used in spatially explicit fire growth models to attain fire behaviour information for fuel management in prescribed fires, fire management applications, firefighters training, smoke emissions, etc. However, fuel type characteristics are difficult to be parameterized due to their complexity and variability: live and dead materials with different size contribute in different ways to the fire spread and behaviour. In the last decades, a strong help was provided by the use of remote sensing imagery at high spatial and spectral resolution. Such techniques are able to capture fine scale fuel distributions for accurate fire growth projections. Several attempts carried out in Europe were devoted to fuel classification and map characterization. In Italy, fuel load estimation and fuel model definition are still critical issues to be addressed due to the lack of detailed information. In this perspective, the aim of the present work was to propose an integrated approach based on field data collection, fuel model development and fuel model mapping to provide fuel models for the Mediterranean maquis associations. Field data needed for the development of fuel models were collected using destructive and non destructive measurements in experimental plots located in Northern Sardinia (Italy). Statistical tests were used to identify the main fuel types that were classified into four custom fuel models. Subsequently, a supervised classification by the Maximum Likelihood algorithm was applied on IKONOS images to identify and map the different types of maquis vegetation. The correspondent fuel model was then associated to each vegetation type to obtain the fuel model map. The results show the

  14. Modeling of exposure to carbon monoxide in fires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cagliostro, D. E.

    1980-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed to predict carboxyhemoglobin concentrations in regions of the body for short exposures to carbon monoxide levels expected during escape from aircraft fires. The model includes the respiratory and circulatory dynamics of absorption and distribution of carbon monoxide and carboxyhemoglobin. Predictions of carboxyhemoglobin concentrations are compared to experimental values obtained for human exposures to constant high carbon monoxide levels. Predictions are within 20% of experimental values. For short exposure times, transient concentration effects are predicted. The effect of stress is studied and found to increase carboxyhemoglobin levels substantially compared to a rest state.

  15. toolkit computational mesh conceptual model.

    SciTech Connect

    Baur, David G.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Cochran, William K.; Williams, Alan B.; Sjaardema, Gregory D.

    2010-03-01

    The Sierra Toolkit computational mesh is a software library intended to support massively parallel multi-physics computations on dynamically changing unstructured meshes. This domain of intended use is inherently complex due to distributed memory parallelism, parallel scalability, heterogeneity of physics, heterogeneous discretization of an unstructured mesh, and runtime adaptation of the mesh. Management of this inherent complexity begins with a conceptual analysis and modeling of this domain of intended use; i.e., development of a domain model. The Sierra Toolkit computational mesh software library is designed and implemented based upon this domain model. Software developers using, maintaining, or extending the Sierra Toolkit computational mesh library must be familiar with the concepts/domain model presented in this report.

  16. Fast Computation of CMH Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patel, Umesh D.; DellaTorre, Edward; Day, John H. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A fast differential equation approach for the DOK model has been extented to the CMH model. Also, a cobweb technique for calculating the CMH model is also presented. The two techniques are contrasted from the point of view of flexibility and computation time.

  17. Measurement of Fire Radiative Energy from Space and Implications for Fire-Disaster Monitoring and Smoke Emissions Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ichoku, Charles

    2008-01-01

    Measurement of fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP) from satellite provides a vital mechanism for distinguishing different strengths of fires. Analysis of 1-km resolution fire data, acquired globally by the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites from 2000 to 2006, showed instantaneous FRP values ranging between 0.02 MW and 1866 MW, to which simple thresholds can be applied to categorize fires by strength, in a similar fashion as the strengths of earthquakes and hurricanes. Analysis of regional mean FRP per unit area of land (FRP flux) shows that at peak fire season in certain regions, fires can be responsible for up to 0.2 W/m2 at peak time of day. When considered as the active fire contribution to the direct surface radiative forcing (RF) in the different fire regions, this order of magnitude of FRF fluxes is non negligible. It has been determined experimentally that the amount of FRE released by a fire over the course of its duration is directly proportional to the amount of biomass consumed by it. Furthermore, at the satellite observation scale, the rate of release of FRE (i.e. FRP) is proportional to the rate of biomass consumption, and that of emission of smoke particulates and eventually also other smoke constituents. Therefore, current research efforts are geared toward deriving simple parameterizations that will facilitate direct input of FRP measurements in models, not only to improve the accuracy of burned-biomass and smoke emissions estimations, but also to reduce the hitherto practiced heavy reliance on multiple indirect parameters with indeterminate uncertainties.

  18. Modelling the propagation of smoke from a tanker fire in a built-up area.

    PubMed

    Brzozowska, Lucyna

    2014-02-15

    The paper presents the application of a Lagrangian particle model to problems connected with safety in road transport. Numerical simulations were performed for a hypothetical case of smoke emission from a tanker fire in a built-up area. Propagation of smoke was analysed for three wind directions. A diagnostic model was used to determine the air velocity field, whereas the dispersion of pollutants was analysed by means of a Lagrangian particle model (Brzozowska, 2013). The Idrisi Andes geographic information system was used to provide data on landforms and on their aerodynamic roughness. The presented results of computations and their analysis exemplify a possible application of the Lagrangian particle model: evaluation of mean (averaged over time) concentrations of pollutants and their distribution in the considered area (especially important due to the protection of people, animals and plants) and simulation of the propagation of harmful compounds in time as well as performing computations for cases of the potential effects of road incidents. PMID:24342097

  19. Models of Grid Cell Spatial Firing Published 2005–2011

    PubMed Central

    Zilli, Eric A.

    2012-01-01

    Since the discovery of grid cells in rat entorhinal cortex, many models of their hexagonally arrayed spatial firing fields have been suggested. We review the models and organize them according to the mechanisms they use to encode position, update the positional code, read it out in the spatial grid pattern, and learn any patterned synaptic connections needed. We mention biological implementations of the models, but focus on the models on Marr’s algorithmic level, where they are not things to individually prove or disprove, but rather are a valuable collection of metaphors of the grid cell system for guiding research that are all likely true to some degree, with each simply emphasizing different aspects of the system. For the convenience of interested researchers, MATLAB implementations of the discussed grid cell models are provided at ModelDB accession 144006 or http://people.bu.edu/zilli/gridmodels.html. PMID:22529780

  20. 75 FR 20516 - Special Conditions: Cirrus Design Corporation, Model SF50; Fire Extinguishing for Upper Aft...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-20

    ...; Fire Extinguishing for Upper Aft Fuselage Mounted Engine AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA... protect such installed engines from fires, were not envisioned in the development of the part 23 normal... fire extinguishing system for the engine on the model SF50 is required. Regulations requiring...

  1. Firing patterns in a random network cellular automata model of the brain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acedo, L.; Lamprianidou, E.; Moraño, J.-A.; Villanueva-Oller, J.; Villanueva, R.-J.

    2015-10-01

    One of the main challenges in the simulation of even reduced areas of the brain is the presence of a large number of neurons and a large number of connections among them. Even from a theoretical point of view, the behaviour of dynamical models of complex networks with high connectivity is unknown, precisely because the cost of computation is still unaffordable and it will likely be in the near future. In this paper we discuss the simulation of a cellular automata network model of the brain including up to one million sites with a maximum average of three hundred connections per neuron. This level of connectivity was achieved thanks to a distributed computing environment based on the BOINC (Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing) platform. Moreover, in this work we consider the interplay among excitatory neurons (which induce the excitation of their neighbours) and inhibitory neurons (which prevent resting neurons from firing and induce firing neurons to pass to the refractory state). Our objective is to classify the normal (noisy but asymptotically constant patterns) and the abnormal (high oscillations with spindle-like behaviour) patterns of activity in the model brain and their stability and parameter ranges in order to determine the role of excitatory and inhibitory compensatory effects in healthy and diseased individuals.

  2. Turbulence radiation interaction modeling in hydrocarbon pool fire simulations

    SciTech Connect

    BURNS,SHAWN P.

    1999-12-01

    The importance of turbulent fluctuations in temperature and species concentration in thermal radiation transport modeling for combustion applications is well accepted by the radiation transport and combustion communities. A number of experimental and theoretical studies over the last twenty years have shown that fluctuations in the temperature and species concentrations may increase the effective emittance of a turbulent flame by as much as 50% to 300% over the value that would be expected from the mean temperatures and concentrations. With the possibility of such a large effect on the principal mode of heat transfer from a fire, it is extremely important for fire modeling efforts that turbulence radiation interaction be well characterized and possible modeling approaches understood. Toward this end, this report seeks to accomplish three goals. First, the principal turbulence radiation interaction closure terms are defined. Second, an order of magnitude analysis is performed to understand the relative importance of the various closure terms. Finally, the state of the art in turbulence radiation interaction closure modeling is reviewed. Hydrocarbon pool fire applications are of particular interest in this report and this is the perspective from which this review proceeds. Experimental and theoretical analysis suggests that, for this type of heavily sooting flame, the turbulent radiation interaction effect is dominated by the nonlinear dependence of the Planck function on the temperature. Additional effects due to the correlation between turbulent fluctuations in the absorptivity and temperature may be small relative to the Planck function effect for heavily sooting flames. This observation is drawn from a number of experimental and theoretical discussions. Nevertheless, additional analysis and data is needed to validate this observation for heavily sooting buoyancy dominated plumes.

  3. Sensitivity analysis of a FMC model for improving forecasting forest fires: Comparison with real fires in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    San Jose, Roberto; Perez, Juan Luis; Gonzalez-Barras, Rosa M.; Pecci, Julia; Palacios, Marino

    2014-05-01

    Forest fires continue to be a very dangerous and extreme violent episode jeopardizing the human lives and owns. Spain is plagued by forest and brush fires every summer, when extremely dry weather sets in along with high temperatures. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data; in absence of realistic data, errors on the simulated fire spread con be compounded to produce o decrease of the spatial and temporal accuracy of predicted data. In this work we have carried out a sensitivity analysis of different components of the fire model and particularly the fuel moisture content (FMC) such as microphysics and solar radiation model. Three different real fire models have been used: Murcia (September, 7, 2010 19h09 and 9 hours duration), Gabiel (March, 7, 2007, 22h15 and 38 hours duration) and Culla (Marzo, 7, 2007, 23h36 and 37 hours duration). We use the 100 m European Corine Land Cover map. We use the WRF-Fire model developed by NCAR (USA). The WRF mode is run using the GFS global data and over the Iberian Peninsula with 15 km spatial resolution. We apply the nesting approach over the fires areas (located in the South East of the Iberian Peninsula) with 3 km, 1 km and 200 m spatial resolution. The Fire module included into WRF is run with 20 m spatial resolution and the landuse is interpolated from the Corine 100 m land use map. The results show that the Thompson et al. microphysics scheme and the RRTM solar radiation scheme are those with the best combination using a specific counting score to classify the goodness of the results compare with the real burned area. Those pixels not burned by the simulations but burned by the observational data sets are penalized double compare with the vice versa process. The NDVI obtained by satellite on the day of starting the fire is included in the simulations and a substantial improving in the final score is obtained.

  4. FNAS computational modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Franz, J. R.

    1993-01-01

    Numerical calculations of the electronic properties of liquid II-VI semiconductors, particularly CdTe and ZnTe were performed. The measured conductivity of these liquid alloys were modeled by assuming that the dominant temperature effect is the increase in the number of dangling bonds with increasing temperature. For low to moderate values of electron correlation, the calculated conductivity as a function of dangling bond concentration closely follows the measured conductivity as a function of temperature. Both the temperature dependence of the chemical potential and the thermal smearing in region of the Fermi surface have a large effect on calculated values of conductivity.

  5. Computational models of epileptiform activity.

    PubMed

    Wendling, Fabrice; Benquet, Pascal; Bartolomei, Fabrice; Jirsa, Viktor

    2016-02-15

    We reviewed computer models that have been developed to reproduce and explain epileptiform activity. Unlike other already-published reviews on computer models of epilepsy, the proposed overview starts from the various types of epileptiform activity encountered during both interictal and ictal periods. Computational models proposed so far in the context of partial and generalized epilepsies are classified according to the following taxonomy: neural mass, neural field, detailed network and formal mathematical models. Insights gained about interictal epileptic spikes and high-frequency oscillations, about fast oscillations at seizure onset, about seizure initiation and propagation, about spike-wave discharges and about status epilepticus are described. This review shows the richness and complementarity of the various modeling approaches as well as the fruitful contribution of the computational neuroscience community in the field of epilepsy research. It shows that models have progressively gained acceptance and are now considered as an efficient way of integrating structural, functional and pathophysiological data about neural systems into "coherent and interpretable views". The advantages, limitations and future of modeling approaches are discussed. Perspectives in epilepsy research and clinical epileptology indicate that very promising directions are foreseen, like model-guided experiments or model-guided therapeutic strategy, among others. PMID:25843066

  6. Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arima, Eugenio Y.; Simmons, Cynthia S.; Walker, Robert T.; Cochrane, Mark A.

    2007-01-01

    This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farmgate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of managed and unmanaged fires in order to simulate the impact of road paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

  7. Computational modeling of properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Franz, Judy R.

    1994-01-01

    A simple model was developed to calculate the electronic transport parameters in disordered semiconductors in strong scattered regime. The calculation is based on a Green function solution to Kubo equation for the energy-dependent conductivity. This solution together with a rigorous calculation of the temperature-dependent chemical potential allows the determination of the dc conductivity and the thermopower. For wise-gap semiconductors with single defect bands, these transport properties are investigated as a function of defect concentration, defect energy, Fermi level, and temperature. Under certain conditions the calculated conductivity is quite similar to the measured conductivity in liquid II-VI semiconductors in that two distinct temperature regimes are found. Under different conditions the conductivity is found to decrease with temperature; this result agrees with measurements in amorphous Si. Finally the calculated thermopower can be positive or negative and may change sign with temperature or defect concentration.

  8. Computational modeling of properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Franz, Judy R.

    1994-01-01

    A simple model was developed to calculate the electronic transport parameters in disordered semiconductors in strong scattered regime. The calculation is based on a Green function solution to Kubo equation for the energy-dependent conductivity. This solution together with a rigorous calculation of the temperature-dependent chemical potential allows the determination of the dc conductivity and the thermopower. For wide-gap semiconductors with single defect bands, these transport properties are investigated as a function of defect concentration, defect energy, Fermi level, and temperature. Under certain conditions the calculated conductivity is quite similar to the measured conductivity in liquid 2-6 semiconductors in that two distinct temperature regimes are found. Under different conditions the conductivity is found to decrease with temperature; this result agrees with measurements in amorphous Si. Finally the calculated thermopower can be positive or negative and may change sign with temperature or defect concentration.

  9. The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildfire Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath

    SciTech Connect

    Rudell, T. M.; Gille, R. W.

    2001-01-01

    The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?

  10. The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildlife Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath

    SciTech Connect

    Rudell, T. M.; Gille, R. W.

    2001-01-01

    The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?

  11. Verification of the naval oceanic vertical aerosol model during FIRE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davidson, K. L.; Deleeuw, G.; Gathman, S. G.; Jensen, D. R.

    1990-01-01

    The value of Naval Oceanic Vertical Aerosol Model (NOVAM) is illustrated for estimating the non-uniform and non-logarithmic extinction profiles, based on a severe test involving conditions close to and beyond the limits of applicability of NOVAM. A more comprehensive evaluation of NOVAM from the FIRE data is presented, which includes a clear-air case. For further evaluation more data are required on the vertical structure of the extinction in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), preferably for different meteorological conditions and in different geographic areas (e.g., ASTEX).

  12. Nano-filled epoxy: Mechanical and fire behavior and modeling of nanocomposite columns under fire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bietto, Stefano

    2007-12-01

    In this work, fracture, mechanical, and flammability tests, along with a modeling of the stability of nanocomposite columns under fire are presented for nano-filled Diglycidyl Ether of Bisphenol A epoxy. The nanofillers used are montmorillonite nanoclays and carbon nanofibers. Three types of nanocomposites are manufactured: epoxy-clay, epoxy-carbon nanofiber, and epoxy-clay-carbon nanofiber nanocomposites. Fracture tests performed include Izod impact and fracture toughness, for the determination of the net Izod impact strength, the stress intensity factor, and the critical energy release rate. With static mechanical tests the tensile and flexural properties of the nanocomposites are measured. Flammability tests made by cone calorimetry are used to determine the Heat Release Rate, Mass Loss Rate, time to ignition, to Peak of heat Release rate and to flameout, and total smoke and heat released. A mathematical modeling of the stability of columns, made of the same nanocomposites tested, burning continuously in one side is performed. Three configurations are considered: uniform burning along the span, and burning spot at the center and at the corner of the column. The testing and the mathematical modeling reveal the higher mechanical strength and superior flammability properties produced by addition of nanofillers.

  13. Efficient Computational Model of Hysteresis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shields, Joel

    2005-01-01

    A recently developed mathematical model of the output (displacement) versus the input (applied voltage) of a piezoelectric transducer accounts for hysteresis. For the sake of computational speed, the model is kept simple by neglecting the dynamic behavior of the transducer. Hence, the model applies to static and quasistatic displacements only. A piezoelectric transducer of the type to which the model applies is used as an actuator in a computer-based control system to effect fine position adjustments. Because the response time of the rest of such a system is usually much greater than that of a piezoelectric transducer, the model remains an acceptably close approximation for the purpose of control computations, even though the dynamics are neglected. The model (see Figure 1) represents an electrically parallel, mechanically series combination of backlash elements, each having a unique deadband width and output gain. The zeroth element in the parallel combination has zero deadband width and, hence, represents a linear component of the input/output relationship. The other elements, which have nonzero deadband widths, are used to model the nonlinear components of the hysteresis loop. The deadband widths and output gains of the elements are computed from experimental displacement-versus-voltage data. The hysteresis curve calculated by use of this model is piecewise linear beyond deadband limits.

  14. Ch. 33 Modeling: Computational Thermodynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Besmann, Theodore M

    2012-01-01

    This chapter considers methods and techniques for computational modeling for nuclear materials with a focus on fuels. The basic concepts for chemical thermodynamics are described and various current models for complex crystalline and liquid phases are illustrated. Also included are descriptions of available databases for use in chemical thermodynamic studies and commercial codes for performing complex equilibrium calculations.

  15. Mathematical modelling of coal fired fluidized bed combustors

    SciTech Connect

    Selcuk, N.; Siddall, R.G.; Sivrioglu, U.

    1980-12-01

    A system model of continuous fluidized bed combustors burning coal of wide size distribution has been derived, and applied to the investigation of the effect of excess air and recycle on bed concentration and temperature profiles and combustion efficiency of a pilot scale coal fired fluidized combustor. To demonstrate the effect of recycling, the behaviour of the fluidized combustor has been predicted for two extreme cases of recycle: complete and no recycle of elutriated char particles, the former was chosen to determine the behaviour of the model in the absence of elutriation, and the latter corresponds to the actual operating conditions of the fluidized combustor. Expected trends for concentration and temperature profiles and combustion efficiency are predicted correctly for both cases. The predictive ability and the flexibility of the model for incorporation of refinements such as a correlation for bubble growth and a detailed combustion mechanism, makes the model a promising one for the evaluation of performance of the fluid bed industrial boilers.

  16. Using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis of MODIS Data for Computing the Fire Potential Index in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, P.; Roberts, D. A.

    2007-12-01

    The Fire Potential Index (FPI) is currently the only operationally used wildfire susceptibility index in the United States that incorporates remote sensing data in addition to meteorological information. Its remote sensing component utilizes relative greenness derived from a NDVI time series as a proxy for computing the ratio of live to dead vegetation. This study investigates the potential of Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) as a more direct and physically reasonable way of computing the live ratio and applying it for the computation of the FPI. A time series of 16-day reflectance composites of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was used to perform the analysis. Endmember selection for green vegetation (GV), non- photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) and soil was performed in two stages. First, a subset of suitable endmembers was selected from an extensive library of reference and image spectra for each class using Endmember Average Root Mean Square Error (EAR), Minimum Average Spectral Angle (MASA) and a count-based technique. Second, the most appropriate endmembers for the specific data set were selected from the subset by running a series of 2-endmember models on representative images and choosing the ones that modeled the majority of pixels. The final set of endmembers was used for running MESMA on southern California MODIS composites from 2000 to 2006. 3- and 4-endmember models were considered. The best model was chosen on a per-pixel basis according to the minimum root mean square error of the models at each level of complexity. Endmember fractions were normalized by the shade endmember to generate realistic fractions of GV and NPV. In order to validate the MESMA-derived GV fractions they were compared against live ratio estimates from RG. A significant spatial and temporal relationship between both measures was found, indicating that GV fraction has the potential to substitute RG in computing the FPI. To further test

  17. Modelling the impacts of reoccurring fires in tropical savannahs using Biome-BGC.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fletcher, Charlotte; Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan

    2010-05-01

    Fires are a dominant feature of tropical savannahs and have occurred throughout history by natural as well as human-induced means. These fires have a profound influence on the landscape in terms of flux dynamics and vegetative species composition. This study attempts to understand the impacts of fire regimes on flux dynamics and vegetation composition in savannahs using the Biome-BGC model. The Batéké Plateau, Gabon - an area of savannah grasslands in the Congo basin, serves as a case-study. To achieve model validation for savannahs, data sets from stands with differing levels of past burning are used. It is hypothesised that the field measurements from those stands with lower-levels of past burning will correlate with the Biome-BGC model output, meaning that the model is validated for the savannah excluding fire regimes. However, in reality, fire is frequent in the savannah. Data on past fire events are available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to provide the fire regimes of the model. As the field data-driven measurements of the burnt stands are influenced by fire in the savannah, this will therefore result in a Biome-BGC model validated for the impacts of fire on savannah ecology. The validated model can then be used to predict the savannah's flux dynamics under the fire scenarios expected with climate and/or human impact change.

  18. Issues in Numerical Simulation of Fire Suppression

    SciTech Connect

    Tieszen, S.R.; Lopez, A.R.

    1999-04-12

    This paper outlines general physical and computational issues associated with performing numerical simulation of fire suppression. Fire suppression encompasses a broad range of chemistry and physics over a large range of time and length scales. The authors discuss the dominant physical/chemical processes important to fire suppression that must be captured by a fire suppression model to be of engineering usefulness. First-principles solutions are not possible due to computational limitations, even with the new generation of tera-flop computers. A basic strategy combining computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation techniques with sub-grid model approximations for processes that have length scales unresolvable by gridding is presented.

  19. Computational Modeling of Multiphase Reactors.

    PubMed

    Joshi, J B; Nandakumar, K

    2015-01-01

    Multiphase reactors are very common in chemical industry, and numerous review articles exist that are focused on types of reactors, such as bubble columns, trickle beds, fluid catalytic beds, etc. Currently, there is a high degree of empiricism in the design process of such reactors owing to the complexity of coupled flow and reaction mechanisms. Hence, we focus on synthesizing recent advances in computational and experimental techniques that will enable future designs of such reactors in a more rational manner by exploring a large design space with high-fidelity models (computational fluid dynamics and computational chemistry models) that are validated with high-fidelity measurements (tomography and other detailed spatial measurements) to provide a high degree of rigor. Understanding the spatial distributions of dispersed phases and their interaction during scale up are key challenges that were traditionally addressed through pilot scale experiments, but now can be addressed through advanced modeling. PMID:26134737

  20. Computational models of adult neurogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cecchi, Guillermo A.; Magnasco, Marcelo O.

    2005-10-01

    Experimental results in recent years have shown that adult neurogenesis is a significant phenomenon in the mammalian brain. Little is known, however, about the functional role played by the generation and destruction of neurons in the context of an adult brain. Here, we propose two models where new projection neurons are incorporated. We show that in both models, using incorporation and removal of neurons as a computational tool, it is possible to achieve a higher computational efficiency that in purely static, synapse-learning-driven networks. We also discuss the implication for understanding the role of adult neurogenesis in specific brain areas like the olfactory bulb and the dentate gyrus.

  1. An intermediate process-based fire parameterization in Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Zeng, X.

    2011-12-01

    An intermediate process-based fire parameterization has been developed for global fire simulation. It fits the framework of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) which has been a pivot component in Earth System Model (ESM). The fire parameterization comprises three parts: fire occurrence, fire spread, and fire impact. In the first part, the number of fires is determined by ignition counts due to anthropogenic and natural causes and three constraints: fuel load, fuel moisture, and human suppression. Human caused ignition and suppression is explicitly considered as a nonlinear function of population density. The fire counts rather than fire occurrence probability is estimated to avoid underestimating the observed high burned area fraction in tropical savannas where fire occurs frequently. In the second part, post-fire region is assumed to be elliptical in shape with the wind direction along the major axis and the point of ignition at one of the foci. Burned area is determined by fire spread rate,fire duration, and fire counts. Mathematical characteristics of ellipse and some mathematical derivations are used to avoid redundant and unreasonable equations and assumptions in the CTEM-FIRE and make the parameterization equations self-consistently. In the third part, the impact of fire on vegetation component and structure, carbon cycle, trace gases and aerosol emissions are taken into account. The new estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning offers an interface with aerosol and atmospheric chemistry model in ESMs. Furthermore, in the new fire parameterization, fire occurrence part and fire spread part can be updated hourly or daily, and fire impact part can be updated daily, monthly, or annually. Its flexibility in selection of time-step length makes it easily applied to various DGVMs. The improved Community Land Model 3.0's Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM) is used as the model platform to assess the global performance of the new

  2. Enhanced absorption cycle computer model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossman, G.; Wilk, M.

    1993-09-01

    Absorption heat pumps have received renewed and increasing attention in the past two decades. The rising cost of electricity has made the particular features of this heat-powered cycle attractive for both residential and industrial applications. Solar-powered absorption chillers, gas-fired domestic heat pumps, and waste-heat-powered industrial temperature boosters are a few of the applications recently subjected to intensive research and development. The absorption heat pump research community has begun to search for both advanced cycles in various multistage configurations and new working fluid combinations with potential for enhanced performance and reliability. The development of working absorption systems has created a need for reliable and effective system simulations. A computer code has been developed for simulation of absorption systems at steady state in a flexible and modular form, making it possible to investigate various cycle configurations with different working fluids. The code is based on unit subroutines containing the governing equations for the system's components and property subroutines containing thermodynamic properties of the working fluids. The user conveys to the computer an image of his cycle by specifying the different subunits and their interconnections. Based on this information, the program calculates the temperature, flow rate, concentration, pressure, and vapor fraction at each state point in the system, and the heat duty at each unit, from which the coefficient of performance (COP) may be determined. This report describes the code and its operation, including improvements introduced into the present version. Simulation results are described for LiBr-H2O triple-effect cycles, LiCl-H2O solar-powered open absorption cycles, and NH3-H2O single-effect and generator-absorber heat exchange cycles. An appendix contains the user's manual.

  3. Random Sampling with Interspike-Intervals of the Exponential Integrate and Fire Neuron: A Computational Interpretation of UP-States

    PubMed Central

    Steimer, Andreas; Schindler, Kaspar

    2015-01-01

    Oscillations between high and low values of the membrane potential (UP and DOWN states respectively) are an ubiquitous feature of cortical neurons during slow wave sleep and anesthesia. Nevertheless, a surprisingly small number of quantitative studies have been conducted only that deal with this phenomenon’s implications for computation. Here we present a novel theory that explains on a detailed mathematical level the computational benefits of UP states. The theory is based on random sampling by means of interspike intervals (ISIs) of the exponential integrate and fire (EIF) model neuron, such that each spike is considered a sample, whose analog value corresponds to the spike’s preceding ISI. As we show, the EIF’s exponential sodium current, that kicks in when balancing a noisy membrane potential around values close to the firing threshold, leads to a particularly simple, approximative relationship between the neuron’s ISI distribution and input current. Approximation quality depends on the frequency spectrum of the current and is improved upon increasing the voltage baseline towards threshold. Thus, the conceptually simpler leaky integrate and fire neuron that is missing such an additional current boost performs consistently worse than the EIF and does not improve when voltage baseline is increased. For the EIF in contrast, the presented mechanism is particularly effective in the high-conductance regime, which is a hallmark feature of UP-states. Our theoretical results are confirmed by accompanying simulations, which were conducted for input currents of varying spectral composition. Moreover, we provide analytical estimations of the range of ISI distributions the EIF neuron can sample from at a given approximation level. Such samples may be considered by any algorithmic procedure that is based on random sampling, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo or message-passing methods. Finally, we explain how spike-based random sampling relates to existing

  4. The Effect of Computer-Based Simulation Training on Fire Ground Incident Commander Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Kurt A.

    2010-01-01

    Since the establishment of the first volunteer fire brigades in the United States, firefighters have lost their lives in fire fighting operations at emergency incidents and live-fire training activities. While there are various reasons for these firefighter deaths and injuries, the United States Fire Administration (2002) reported that many of…

  5. The Hewlett-Packard HP-41CV Hand-Held Computer as a Medium for Teaching Mathematics to Fire Control Systems Repairers. Research Report 1408.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boldovici, John A.; Scott, Thomas D.

    A study compared the benefits of using the Hewlett-Packard HP-41CV hand-held computer, as opposed to conventional training without computers, in teaching mathematics to fire control systems repairers. Thirty soldiers in a course to train fire control systems repairers received training in technical mathematics using the hand-held computer, whereas…

  6. Computational Modeling Method for Superalloys

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bozzolo, Guillermo; Noebe, Ronald D.; Gayda, John

    1997-01-01

    Computer modeling based on theoretical quantum techniques has been largely inefficient due to limitations on the methods or the computer needs associated with such calculations, thus perpetuating the notion that little help can be expected from computer simulations for the atomistic design of new materials. In a major effort to overcome these limitations and to provide a tool for efficiently assisting in the development of new alloys, we developed the BFS method for alloys, which together with the experimental results from previous and current research that validate its use for large-scale simulations, provide the ideal grounds for developing a computationally economical and physically sound procedure for supplementing the experimental work at great cost and time savings.

  7. Modeling Forest Fire Occurrences Using Count-Data Mixed Models in Qiannan Autonomous Prefecture of Guizhou Province in China

    PubMed Central

    Ji, Ping

    2015-01-01

    Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence. PMID:25790309

  8. Climate Modeling Computing Needs Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petraska, K. E.; McCabe, J. D.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses early findings of an assessment of computing needs for NASA science, engineering and flight communities. The purpose of this assessment is to document a comprehensive set of computing needs that will allow us to better evaluate whether our computing assets are adequately structured to meet evolving demand. The early results are interesting, already pointing out improvements we can make today to get more out of the computing capacity we have, as well as potential game changing innovations for the future in how we apply information technology to science computing. Our objective is to learn how to leverage our resources in the best way possible to do more science for less money. Our approach in this assessment is threefold: Development of use case studies for science workflows; Creating a taxonomy and structure for describing science computing requirements; and characterizing agency computing, analysis, and visualization resources. As projects evolve, science data sets increase in a number of ways: in size, scope, timelines, complexity, and fidelity. Generating, processing, moving, and analyzing these data sets places distinct and discernable requirements on underlying computing, analysis, storage, and visualization systems. The initial focus group for this assessment is the Earth Science modeling community within NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD). As the assessment evolves, this focus will expand to other science communities across the agency. We will discuss our use cases, our framework for requirements and our characterizations, as well as our interview process, what we learned and how we plan to improve our materials after using them in the first round of interviews in the Earth Science Modeling community. We will describe our plans for how to expand this assessment, first into the Earth Science data analysis and remote sensing communities, and then throughout the full community of science, engineering and flight at NASA.

  9. Kilohertz Frequency Deep Brain Stimulation Is Ineffective at Regularizing the Firing of Model Thalamic Neurons

    PubMed Central

    Couto, João; Grill, Warren M.

    2016-01-01

    Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is an established therapy for movement disorders, including tremor, dystonia, and Parkinson's disease, but the mechanisms of action are not well understood. Symptom suppression by DBS typically requires stimulation frequencies ≥100 Hz, but when the frequency is increased above ~2 kHz, the effectiveness in tremor suppression declines (Benabid et al., 1991). We sought to test the hypothesis that the decline in efficacy at high frequencies is associated with desynchronization of the activity generated within a population of stimulated neurons. Regularization of neuronal firing is strongly correlated with tremor suppression by DBS, and desynchronization would disrupt the regularization of neuronal activity. We implemented computational models of CNS axons with either deterministic or stochastic membrane dynamics, and quantified the response of populations of model nerve fibers to extracellular stimulation at different frequencies and amplitudes. As stimulation frequency was increased from 2 to 80 Hz the regularity of neuronal firing increased (as assessed with direct estimates of entropy), in accord with the clinical effects on tremor of increasing stimulation frequency (Kuncel et al., 2006). Further, at frequencies between 80 and 500 Hz, increasing the stimulation amplitude (i.e., the proportion of neurons activated by the stimulus) increased the regularity of neuronal activity across the population, in accord with the clinical effects on tremor of stimulation amplitude (Kuncel et al., 2007). However, at stimulation frequencies above 1 kHz the regularity of neuronal firing declined due to irregular patterns of action potential generation and conduction block. The reductions in neuronal regularity that occurred at high frequencies paralleled the previously reported decline in tremor reduction and may be responsible for the loss of efficacy of DBS at very high frequencies. This analysis provides further support for the hypothesis that

  10. Modeling post-fire vegetation succession and its effect on permafrost vulnerability and carbon balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Genet, H.; McGuire, A. D.; Johnstone, J. F.; Breen, A. L.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Mack, M. C.; Melvin, A. M.; Rupp, T. S.; Schuur, E. A.; Yuan, F.

    2013-12-01

    Wildfires are one of the main disturbances in high latitude ecosystems and have important consequences for the large stocks of carbon stored in permafrost soils. Fire affects carbon balance directly by burning vegetation and surface organic material and indirectly by influencing post-fire vegetation composition and soil thermal and hydrological regimes. Recent developments of ecosystem models allow a better representation of the effects of fire on organic soil dynamics and the soil environment, but there is a need to better integrate post-fire vegetation succession in these models. Post-fire vegetation regeneration is sensitive to fire consumption of soil organic layer horizons, where high severity burning promotes the establishment of deciduous broadleaf trees. In comparison to conifers, deciduous forests are less flammable, more productive, have higher nutrient turnover, and deeper permafrost. However, deciduous forests generally store less soil carbon than conifer forests. Therefore, the fire-induced shifts in vegetation composition have consequences for ecosystem carbon balance. In this study, we present the development of an ecosystem model that integrates post-fire succession with changes in the structure and function of organic soil horizons to better represent the relationship between fire severity and vegetation succession across the landscape. The model is then used to assess changes in the carbon balance at a 1km resolution, in response to changing fire regime across the landscape in Interior Alaska.

  11. [Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

    PubMed

    Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

    2015-07-01

    The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located. PMID:26710638

  12. Obtaining a Pragmatic Representation of Fire Disturbance in Dynamic Vegetation Models by Assimilating Earth Observation Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun

    2015-04-01

    Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.

  13. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Rubin, E.S.

    1989-10-01

    The general goal of this research project is to enhance, and transfer to DOE, a new computer simulation model for analyzing the performance and cost of environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants. Systems utilizing pre-combustion, combustion, or post-combustion control methods, individually or in combination, may be considered. A unique capability of this model is the probabilistic representation of uncertainty in model input parameters. This stochastic simulation capability allows the performance and cost of environmental control systems to be quantified probabilistically, accounting for the interactions among all uncertain process and economic parameters. This method facilitates more rigorous comparisons between conventional and advanced clean coal technologies promising improved cost and/or effectiveness for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} removal. Detailed modeling of several pre-combustion and post-combustion processes of interest to DOE/PETC have been selected for analysis as part of this project.

  14. Hydronic distribution system computer model

    SciTech Connect

    Andrews, J.W.; Strasser, J.J.

    1994-10-01

    A computer model of a hot-water boiler and its associated hydronic thermal distribution loop has been developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). It is intended to be incorporated as a submodel in a comprehensive model of residential-scale thermal distribution systems developed at Lawrence Berkeley. This will give the combined model the capability of modeling forced-air and hydronic distribution systems in the same house using the same supporting software. This report describes the development of the BNL hydronics model, initial results and internal consistency checks, and its intended relationship to the LBL model. A method of interacting with the LBL model that does not require physical integration of the two codes is described. This will provide capability now, with reduced up-front cost, as long as the number of runs required is not large.

  15. Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Syphard, A.D.; Yang, J.; Franklin, J.; He, H.S.; Keeley, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Modeling the effects of fire severity on soil organic horizons and forest composition in Interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Genet, H.; Barrett, K. M.; Johnstone, J. F.; McGuire, A. D.; Yuan, F.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Kasischke, E. S.; Rupp, S. T.; Turetsky, M. R.

    2012-12-01

    The fire regime in the boreal region of interior Alaska has been intensifying in terms of both area burned and severity over the last three decades. Based on projections of climate change, this trend is expected to continue throughout the 21st century. Fire causes abrupt changes in energy, nutrient and water balances influencing habitat and vegetation composition. An important factor influencing these changes is the reduction of the soil organic horizon because of differential regeneration capabilities of conifer and evergreen shrubs vs. deciduous and herbaceous vegetation on organic vs. mineral soils. The goal of this study is to develop a prognostic model to simulate the effects of fire severity on soil organic horizons and to evaluate its long-term consequences on forest composition in interior Alaska. Existing field observations were analyzed to build a predictive model of the depth of burning of soil organic horizon after a fire. The model is driven by data sets of fire occurrence, climate, and topography. Post-fire vegetation succession was simulated as a function of post-fire organic horizon depth. The fire severity and post-fire vegetation succession models were then implemented within a biogeochemistry model, the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. Simulations for 21st century climate scenarios at a 1 by 1km resolution for the Alaska Yukon River Basin were conducted to evaluate the effects of considering vs. ignoring post-fire vegetation succession on carbon dynamics. The results of these simulations indicate that it is important for ecosystem models to represent the influence of fire severity on post-fire vegetation succession in order to fully understand the consequences of changes in climate and disturbance regimes on boreal ecosystems.

  17. Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling

    PubMed Central

    Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I.; Whitlock, Cathy

    2015-01-01

    Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity. PMID:25657652

  18. An experimental and modeling study of fires in ventilated ducts; Part 1: Liquid fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Comitis, S.C.; Glasser, D.; Young, B.D. . Dept. of Chemical Engineering)

    1994-03-01

    A theoretical model for fire propagation through a fuel-lined duct with a radially well-mixed axial flow is presented. The gas-phase is modeled as a steady-state process whereas the condensed-phase (fuel source) is taken to be the cause of transient fire propagation along the duct. Experiments were performed in a small-scale duct where fire propagation and gas temperature histories were acquired. Experimental results confirm hypotheses of pseudo-steady-state gas-phase processes. Theory and experiment display transient fire propagation for typical duct fire scenarios where initial fuel mass loading is constant with respect to duct length. The phenomena observed, as predicted by theory, is an initial jump'' of the fully developed combustion process followed by convergence to a steady-state constant fire propagation speed. The theory is in all important aspects able to quantitatively model the experimental results.

  19. Multi-model estimates of fire emissions and air quality degradation in Southeast Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Kinney, P. L.; Shindell, D. T.; Randerson, J. T.

    2011-12-01

    Like fossil fuel pollution, fire emissions affect both climate change and air quality. In this study, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modeling to quantify potential population exposure to particulate matter and ozone from fires in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 2007. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity due to El Niño-induced droughts and anthropogenic drivers. Though typically too wet to combust, increased sources of deforestation and degradation are enhancing the susceptibility of forests and underlying carbon-rich peat deposits to fire during drought, as documented in the extreme fires of the 1997-98 El Niño. Concerns of a positive feedback between fire activity and a warming climate would further increase the influence of fires on air quality degradation. Monthly fire emissions are estimated from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED version 3) and transported in two atmospheric models to assess population exposure. We show that during strong El Niño years, fires contribute to daily fine particulate matter and afternoon maximum ozone surface concentrations over 150 μg/m3 and 240 μg/m3, respectively. Exposure to these two types of pollutants increases mortality and hospital admissions from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, even at low concentrations. This fire pollutant burden corresponds to 200 added days per year exceeding the World Health Organization fine particulate matter guideline and exposes up to 50 million additional people to more than 25 days above the most extreme pollutant concentrations. Our results indicate that substantial health and economic co-benefits would result from reducing fires in locations where transported emissions lead to enhanced exposure to air pollution during high fire years.

  20. Computational Modeling for Bedside Application

    PubMed Central

    Kerckhoffs, Roy C.P.; Narayan, Sanjiv M.; Omens, Jeffrey H.; Mulligan, Lawrence J.; McCulloch, Andrew D.

    2008-01-01

    With growing computer power, novel diagnostic and therapeutic medical technologies, coupled with an increasing knowledge of pathophysiology from gene to organ systems, it is increasingly feasible to apply multi-scale patient-specific modeling based on proven disease mechanisms to guide and predict the response to therapy in many aspects of medicine. This is an exciting and relatively new approach, for which efficient methods and computational tools are of the utmost importance. Already, investigators have designed patient-specific models in almost all areas of human physiology. Not only will these models be useful on a large scale in the clinic to predict and optimize the outcome from surgery and non-interventional therapy, but they will also provide pathophysiologic insights from cell to tissue to organ system, and therefore help to understand why specific interventions succeed or fail. PMID:18598988

  1. Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on Large Fire Size, Counts, and Intensities Using the Large Fire Simulator (FSim)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riley, K. L.; Haas, J. R.; Finney, M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in climate can be expected to cause changes in wildfire activity due to a combination of shifts in weather (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) and vegetation. Changes in vegetation could include type conversions, altered forest structure, and shifts in species composition, the effects of which could be mitigated or exacerbated by management activities. Further, changes in suppression response and effectiveness may alter potential wildfire activity, as well as the consequences of wildfire. Feedbacks among these factors are extremely complex and uncertain. The ability to anticipate changes driven by fire weather (largely outside of human control) can lead to development of fire and fuel management strategies aimed at mitigating current and future risk. Therefore, in this study we focus on isolating the effects of climate-induced changes in weather on wildfire activity. Specifically, we investigated the effect of changes in weather on fire activity in the Canadian Rockies ecoregion, which encompasses Glacier National Park and several large wilderness areas to the south. To model the ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires, we used the Large Fire Simulator (FSim), which we coupled with current and projected future climatic conditions. Weather streams were based on data from 14 downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 45 and 85 for the years 2040-2060. While all GCMs indicate increases in temperature for this area, which would be expected to exacerbate fire activity, precipitation predictions for the summer wildfire season are more variable, ranging from a decrease of approximately 50 mm to an increase of approximately 50 mm. Windspeeds are generally predicted to decrease, which would reduce rates of spread and fire intensity. The net effect of these weather changes on the size, number, and intensity

  2. Transition between Functional Regimes in an Integrate-And-Fire Network Model of the Thalamus.

    PubMed

    Barardi, Alessandro; Garcia-Ojalvo, Jordi; Mazzoni, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    The thalamus is a key brain element in the processing of sensory information. During the sleep and awake states, this brain area is characterized by the presence of two distinct dynamical regimes: in the sleep state activity is dominated by spindle oscillations (7 - 15 Hz) weakly affected by external stimuli, while in the awake state the activity is primarily driven by external stimuli. Here we develop a simple and computationally efficient model of the thalamus that exhibits two dynamical regimes with different information-processing capabilities, and study the transition between them. The network model includes glutamatergic thalamocortical (TC) relay neurons and GABAergic reticular (RE) neurons described by adaptive integrate-and-fire models in which spikes are induced by either depolarization or hyperpolarization rebound. We found a range of connectivity conditions under which the thalamic network composed by these neurons displays the two aforementioned dynamical regimes. Our results show that TC-RE loops generate spindle-like oscillations and that a minimum level of clustering (i.e. local connectivity density) in the RE-RE connections is necessary for the coexistence of the two regimes. We also observe that the transition between the two regimes occurs when the external excitatory input on TC neurons (mimicking sensory stimulation) is large enough to cause a significant fraction of them to switch from hyperpolarization-rebound-driven firing to depolarization-driven firing. Overall, our model gives a novel and clear description of the role that the two types of neurons and their connectivity play in the dynamical regimes observed in the thalamus, and in the transition between them. These results pave the way for the development of efficient models of the transmission of sensory information from periphery to cortex. PMID:27598260

  3. Study on the effect of the operating condition on a pulverized coal-fired furnace using computational fluid dynamics commercial code

    SciTech Connect

    Manish Kumar; Santi Gopal Sahu . man_manna@yahoo.com

    2007-12-15

    Computer models for coal combustion are not sufficiently accurate to enable the design of pulverized coal fired furnaces or the selection of coal based on combustion behavior. Most comprehensive combustion models can predict with reasonable accuracy flow fields and heat transfer but usually with a much lesser degree of accuracy than the combustion of coal particles through char burnout. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling is recognized widely to be a cost-effective, advanced tool for optimizing the design and operating condition of the pulverized coal-fired furnaces for achieving cleaner and efficient power generation. Technologists and researchers are paying remarkable attention to CFD because of its value in the pulverized fuel fired furnace technology and its nonintrusiveness, sophistication, and ability to significantly reduce the time and expense involved in the design, optimization, trouble-shooting, and repair of power generation equipment. An attempt to study the effect of one of the operating conditions, i.e., burner tilts on coal combustion mechanisms, furnace exit gas temperature (FEGT), and heat flux distribution pattern, within the furnace has been made in this paper by modeling a 210 MW boiler using commercial CFD code FLUENT. 5 refs., 8 figs.

  4. Radiative Transfer Modeling of a Large Pool Fire by Discrete Ordinates, Discrete Transfer, Ray Tracing, Monte Carlo and Moment Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jensen, K. A.; Ripoll, J.-F.; Wray, A. A.; Joseph, D.; ElHafi, M.

    2004-01-01

    Five computational methods for solution of the radiative transfer equation in an absorbing-emitting and non-scattering gray medium were compared on a 2 m JP-8 pool fire. The temperature and absorption coefficient fields were taken from a synthetic fire due to the lack of a complete set of experimental data for fires of this size. These quantities were generated by a code that has been shown to agree well with the limited quantity of relevant data in the literature. Reference solutions to the governing equation were determined using the Monte Carlo method and a ray tracing scheme with high angular resolution. Solutions using the discrete transfer method, the discrete ordinate method (DOM) with both S(sub 4) and LC(sub 11) quadratures, and moment model using the M(sub 1) closure were compared to the reference solutions in both isotropic and anisotropic regions of the computational domain. DOM LC(sub 11) is shown to be the more accurate than the commonly used S(sub 4) quadrature technique, especially in anisotropic regions of the fire domain. This represents the first study where the M(sub 1) method was applied to a combustion problem occurring in a complex three-dimensional geometry. The M(sub 1) results agree well with other solution techniques, which is encouraging for future applications to similar problems since it is computationally the least expensive solution technique. Moreover, M(sub 1) results are comparable to DOM S(sub 4).

  5. On wildfire complexity, simple models and environmental templates for fire size distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, M. M.; Bradstock, R.; Gill, M.; Sadler, R.

    2012-12-01

    Vegetation fires affect some 370 Mha annually. At global and continental scales, fire activity follows predictable spatiotemporal patterns driven by gradients and seasonal fluctuations of primary productivity and evaporative demand that set constraints for fuel accumulation rates and fuel dryness, two key ingredients of fire. At regional scales, fires are also known to affect some landscapes more than others and within landscapes to occur preferentially in some sectors (e.g. wind-swept ridges) and rarely in others (e.g. wet gullies). Another common observation is that small fires occur relatively frequent yet collectively burn far less country than relatively infrequent large fires. These patterns of fire activity are well known to management agencies and consistent with their (informal) models of how the basic drivers and constraints of fire (i.e. fuels, ignitions, weather) vary in time and space across the landscape. The statistical behaviour of these landscape fire patterns has excited the (academic) research community by showing some consistency with that of complex dynamical systems poised at a phase transition. The common finding that the frequency-size distributions of actual fires follow power laws that resemble those produced by simple cellular models from statistical mechanics has been interpreted as evidence that flammable landscapes operate as self-organising systems with scale invariant fire size distributions emerging 'spontaneously' from simple rules of contagious fire spread and a strong feedback between fires and fuel patterns. In this paper we argue that the resemblance of simulated and actual fire size distributions is an example of equifinality, that is fires in model landscapes and actual landscapes may show similar statistical behaviour but this is reached by qualitatively different pathways or controlling mechanisms. We support this claim with two key findings regarding simulated fire spread mechanisms and fire-fuel feedbacks. Firstly, we

  6. Visualizing ultrasound through computational modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guo, Theresa W.

    2004-01-01

    The Doppler Ultrasound Hematocrit Project (DHP) hopes to find non-invasive methods of determining a person s blood characteristics. Because of the limits of microgravity and the space travel environment, it is important to find non-invasive methods of evaluating the health of persons in space. Presently, there is no well developed method of determining blood composition non-invasively. This projects hopes to use ultrasound and Doppler signals to evaluate the characteristic of hematocrit, the percentage by volume of red blood cells within whole blood. These non-invasive techniques may also be developed to be used on earth for trauma patients where invasive measure might be detrimental. Computational modeling is a useful tool for collecting preliminary information and predictions for the laboratory research. We hope to find and develop a computer program that will be able to simulate the ultrasound signals the project will work with. Simulated models of test conditions will more easily show what might be expected from laboratory results thus help the research group make informed decisions before and during experimentation. There are several existing Matlab based computer programs available, designed to interpret and simulate ultrasound signals. These programs will be evaluated to find which is best suited for the project needs. The criteria of evaluation that will be used are 1) the program must be able to specify transducer properties and specify transmitting and receiving signals, 2) the program must be able to simulate ultrasound signals through different attenuating mediums, 3) the program must be able to process moving targets in order to simulate the Doppler effects that are associated with blood flow, 4) the program should be user friendly and adaptable to various models. After a computer program is chosen, two simulation models will be constructed. These models will simulate and interpret an RF data signal and a Doppler signal.

  7. Technologies of Physical Monitoring and Mathematical Modeling for Estimation of Ground Forest Fuel Fire Condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baranovskiy, Nikolay V.; Bazarov, Alexandr V.

    2016-02-01

    Description of new experimental installations for the control of parameters of environment with a view of monitoring of forest fires presented in article. Stationary and mobile variants developed. Typical results of operation of installations during a fire-dangerous season of 2015 in vicinities of Ulan-Ude (Republic Buryatiya, Russia) presented. One-dimensional mathematical model of forest fuel drying which can be used for monitoring of forest fire danger with attraction of environmental parameters data during fire-dangerous season offered. Verification of mathematical model with use of known experimental data spent.

  8. Modeling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyman, Petter; Jones, Owen; Sheridan, Gary

    2013-04-01

    Damaging floods and debris flows are hydro-geomorphic hazards that often emerge in mountainous landscapes due to the combination of wildfire and intense rainfall. The frequency and magnitude of events (i.e. hazard) depends on local catchment properties as well as the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) by fire disturbance and storms. Predicting the frequency and magnitude of events therefore involves capturing the nature of the interaction between fire disturbance, rainfall and landscapes. However, the physical modeling of fire disturbance, rainfall and subsequent erosion events is a complex undertaking, requiring detailed deterministic fire and erosion models with many parameters and time-series of forcing inputs. The resulting uncertainties can obscure the effects of key elements within the system, such as the frequency of fire and rainfall events, which are directly impacted by climate change or fire management. In this paper we ask the question, "What is the first-order effect of the interaction between fires and storms?" The aim was to isolate the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on the frequency of extreme erosion events such as runoff generated debris flows. Fire disturbance and storms were represented as independent stochastic processes with properties of spatial extent, temporal duration, and frequency of occurrence. These parameter values were used to model the average annual area affected by extreme erosion due to the intersection of fire disturbance and storms in a germ-grain model. Parameter values were obtained from long term data records on fire and rainfall in two regions of southeast Australia. Climate change effects were modeled using projections for future fire weather and subsequent changes in fire frequency. The modeled long term erosion rate from extreme events under current climate conditions was found to correspond well with other estimates of long-term erosion rates in the region. The model indicates

  9. Parallel computing in enterprise modeling.

    SciTech Connect

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Armstrong, Robert C.; Shneider, Max S.; Vanderveen, Keith; Ray, Jaideep; Heath, Zach; Allan, Benjamin A.

    2008-08-01

    This report presents the results of our efforts to apply high-performance computing to entity-based simulations with a multi-use plugin for parallel computing. We use the term 'Entity-based simulation' to describe a class of simulation which includes both discrete event simulation and agent based simulation. What simulations of this class share, and what differs from more traditional models, is that the result sought is emergent from a large number of contributing entities. Logistic, economic and social simulations are members of this class where things or people are organized or self-organize to produce a solution. Entity-based problems never have an a priori ergodic principle that will greatly simplify calculations. Because the results of entity-based simulations can only be realized at scale, scalable computing is de rigueur for large problems. Having said that, the absence of a spatial organizing principal makes the decomposition of the problem onto processors problematic. In addition, practitioners in this domain commonly use the Java programming language which presents its own problems in a high-performance setting. The plugin we have developed, called the Parallel Particle Data Model, overcomes both of these obstacles and is now being used by two Sandia frameworks: the Decision Analysis Center, and the Seldon social simulation facility. While the ability to engage U.S.-sized problems is now available to the Decision Analysis Center, this plugin is central to the success of Seldon. Because Seldon relies on computationally intensive cognitive sub-models, this work is necessary to achieve the scale necessary for realistic results. With the recent upheavals in the financial markets, and the inscrutability of terrorist activity, this simulation domain will likely need a capability with ever greater fidelity. High-performance computing will play an important part in enabling that greater fidelity.

  10. Cosmic logic: a computational model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanchurin, Vitaly

    2016-02-01

    We initiate a formal study of logical inferences in context of the measure problem in cosmology or what we call cosmic logic. We describe a simple computational model of cosmic logic suitable for analysis of, for example, discretized cosmological systems. The construction is based on a particular model of computation, developed by Alan Turing, with cosmic observers (CO), cosmic measures (CM) and cosmic symmetries (CS) described by Turing machines. CO machines always start with a blank tape and CM machines take CO's Turing number (also known as description number or Gödel number) as input and output the corresponding probability. Similarly, CS machines take CO's Turing number as input, but output either one if the CO machines are in the same equivalence class or zero otherwise. We argue that CS machines are more fundamental than CM machines and, thus, should be used as building blocks in constructing CM machines. We prove the non-computability of a CS machine which discriminates between two classes of CO machines: mortal that halts in finite time and immortal that runs forever. In context of eternal inflation this result implies that it is impossible to construct CM machines to compute probabilities on the set of all CO machines using cut-off prescriptions. The cut-off measures can still be used if the set is reduced to include only machines which halt after a finite and predetermined number of steps.