Confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random-effects meta-analysis using generalised heterogeneity statistics: should we use unequal tails?

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack

2016-09-07

Confidence intervals for the between study variance are useful in random-effects meta-analyses because they quantify the uncertainty in the corresponding point estimates. Methods for calculating these confidence intervals have been developed that are based on inverting hypothesis tests using generalised heterogeneity statistics. Whilst, under the random effects model, these new methods furnish confidence intervals with the correct coverage, the resulting intervals are usually very wide, making them uninformative. We discuss a simple strategy for obtaining 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance with a markedly reduced width, whilst retaining the nominal coverage probability. Specifically, we consider the possibility of using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics with unequal tail probabilities, where the tail probability used to compute the upper bound is greater than 2.5 %. This idea is assessed using four real examples and a variety of simulation studies. Supporting analytical results are also obtained. Our results provide evidence that using unequal tail probabilities can result in shorter 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance. We also show some further results for a real example that illustrates how shorter confidence intervals for the between-study variance can be useful when performing sensitivity analyses for the average effect, which is usually the parameter of primary interest. We conclude that using unequal tail probabilities when computing 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance, when using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics, can result in shorter confidence intervals. We suggest that those who find the case for using unequal tail probabilities convincing should use the '1-4 % split', where greater tail probability is allocated to the upper confidence bound. The 'width-optimal' interval that we present deserves further investigation.

Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

2016-01-01

As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

2012-01-01

The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jason E.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

2016-01-01

Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

1991-01-01

A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

PubMed Central

Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B

2007-02-01

Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamkins, J.

2015-05-01

We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence

On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

2007-01-01

A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Deborah A.

Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2015-01-01

Cronbach’s coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald’s omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega. PMID:29795870

Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2011-04-15

The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

2014-01-01

Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data: Methods and Software.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2016-06-01

Cronbach's coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald's omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega.

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

2012-01-01

Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

2013-01-01

The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zou, Guang Yong

2007-01-01

Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

2014-05-01

One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

2013-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

2017-01-01

Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Applying Bootstrap Resampling to Compute Confidence Intervals for Various Statistics with R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogan, C. Deha

2017-01-01

Background: Most of the studies in academic journals use p values to represent statistical significance. However, this is not a good indicator of practical significance. Although confidence intervals provide information about the precision of point estimation, they are, unfortunately, rarely used. The infrequent use of confidence intervals might…

Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

2007-01-01

Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

1993-06-01

This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, W.; Ratkiewicz, A.; Ressler, J. J.

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.

2011-01-01

In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity.

PubMed

Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi

2011-06-01

For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.

Measuring coverage in MNCH: total survey error and the interpretation of intervention coverage estimates from household surveys.

PubMed

Eisele, Thomas P; Rhoda, Dale A; Cutts, Felicity T; Keating, Joseph; Ren, Ruilin; Barros, Aluisio J D; Arnold, Fred

2013-01-01

Nationally representative household surveys are increasingly relied upon to measure maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) intervention coverage at the population level in low- and middle-income countries. Surveys are the best tool we have for this purpose and are central to national and global decision making. However, all survey point estimates have a certain level of error (total survey error) comprising sampling and non-sampling error, both of which must be considered when interpreting survey results for decision making. In this review, we discuss the importance of considering these errors when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage estimates derived from household surveys, using relevant examples from national surveys to provide context. Sampling error is usually thought of as the precision of a point estimate and is represented by 95% confidence intervals, which are measurable. Confidence intervals can inform judgments about whether estimated parameters are likely to be different from the real value of a parameter. We recommend, therefore, that confidence intervals for key coverage indicators should always be provided in survey reports. By contrast, the direction and magnitude of non-sampling error is almost always unmeasurable, and therefore unknown. Information error and bias are the most common sources of non-sampling error in household survey estimates and we recommend that they should always be carefully considered when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage based on survey data. Overall, we recommend that future research on measuring MNCH intervention coverage should focus on refining and improving survey-based coverage estimates to develop a better understanding of how results should be interpreted and used.

Measuring Coverage in MNCH: Total Survey Error and the Interpretation of Intervention Coverage Estimates from Household Surveys

PubMed Central

Eisele, Thomas P.; Rhoda, Dale A.; Cutts, Felicity T.; Keating, Joseph; Ren, Ruilin; Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Arnold, Fred

2013-01-01

Nationally representative household surveys are increasingly relied upon to measure maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) intervention coverage at the population level in low- and middle-income countries. Surveys are the best tool we have for this purpose and are central to national and global decision making. However, all survey point estimates have a certain level of error (total survey error) comprising sampling and non-sampling error, both of which must be considered when interpreting survey results for decision making. In this review, we discuss the importance of considering these errors when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage estimates derived from household surveys, using relevant examples from national surveys to provide context. Sampling error is usually thought of as the precision of a point estimate and is represented by 95% confidence intervals, which are measurable. Confidence intervals can inform judgments about whether estimated parameters are likely to be different from the real value of a parameter. We recommend, therefore, that confidence intervals for key coverage indicators should always be provided in survey reports. By contrast, the direction and magnitude of non-sampling error is almost always unmeasurable, and therefore unknown. Information error and bias are the most common sources of non-sampling error in household survey estimates and we recommend that they should always be carefully considered when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage based on survey data. Overall, we recommend that future research on measuring MNCH intervention coverage should focus on refining and improving survey-based coverage estimates to develop a better understanding of how results should be interpreted and used. PMID:23667331

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

PubMed

Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Consumer confidence in the safety of food and newspaper coverage of food safety issues: a longitudinal perspective.

PubMed

de Jonge, Janneke; Van Trijp, Hans; Renes, Reint Jan; Frewer, Lynn J

2010-01-01

This study develops a longitudinal perspective on consumer confidence in the safety of food to explore if, how, and why consumer confidence changes over time. In the first study, a theory-based monitoring instrument for consumer confidence in the safety of food was developed and validated. The monitoring instrument assesses consumer confidence together with its determinants. Model and measurement invariance were validated rigorously before developments in consumer confidence in the safety of food and its determinants were investigated over time. The results from the longitudinal analysis show that across four waves of annual data collection (2003-2006), the framework was stable and that the relative importance of the determinants of confidence was, generally, constant over time. Some changes were observed regarding the mean ratings on the latent constructs. The second study explored how newspaper coverage of food safety related issues affects consumer confidence in the safety of food through subjective consumer recall of food safety incidents. The results show that the newspaper coverage on food safety issues is positively associated with consumer recall of food safety incidents, both in terms of intensity and recency of media coverage.

Reducing the width of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means by inverting adaptive tests.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Thomas W

2018-05-01

In the last decade, it has been shown that an adaptive testing method could be used, along with the Robbins-Monro search procedure, to obtain confidence intervals that are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals. However, these confidence interval limits require a great deal of computation and some familiarity with stochastic search methods. We propose a method for estimating the limits of confidence intervals that uses only a few tests of significance. We compare these limits to those obtained by a lengthy Robbins-Monro stochastic search and find that the proposed method is nearly as accurate as the Robbins-Monro search. Adaptive confidence intervals that are produced by the proposed method are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals when the distributions are long-tailed, skewed, or bimodal. Moreover, the proposed method of estimating confidence interval limits is easy to understand, because it is based solely on the p-values from a few tests of significance.

Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals of Norm Statistics for Educational and Psychological Tests.

PubMed

Oosterhuis, Hannah E M; van der Ark, L Andries; Sijtsma, Klaas

2016-11-14

Norm statistics allow for the interpretation of scores on psychological and educational tests, by relating the test score of an individual test taker to the test scores of individuals belonging to the same gender, age, or education groups, et cetera. Given the uncertainty due to sampling error, one would expect researchers to report standard errors for norm statistics. In practice, standard errors are seldom reported; they are either unavailable or derived under strong distributional assumptions that may not be realistic for test scores. We derived standard errors for four norm statistics (standard deviation, percentile ranks, stanine boundaries and Z-scores) under the mild assumption that the test scores are multinomially distributed. A simulation study showed that the standard errors were unbiased and that corresponding Wald-based confidence intervals had good coverage. Finally, we discuss the possibilities for applying the standard errors in practical test use in education and psychology. The procedure is provided via the R function check.norms, which is available in the mokken package.

Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2006-01-01

Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

Calculation of the confidence intervals for transformation parameters in the registration of medical images

PubMed Central

Bansal, Ravi; Staib, Lawrence H.; Laine, Andrew F.; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Jun; Posecion, Lainie F.; Peterson, Bradley S.

2010-01-01

Images from different individuals typically cannot be registered precisely because anatomical features within the images differ across the people imaged and because the current methods for image registration have inherent technological limitations that interfere with perfect registration. Quantifying the inevitable error in image registration is therefore of crucial importance in assessing the effects that image misregistration may have on subsequent analyses in an imaging study. We have developed a mathematical framework for quantifying errors in registration by computing the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters (3 translations, 3 rotations, and 1 global scale) for the similarity transformation. The presence of noise in images and the variability in anatomy across individuals ensures that estimated registration parameters are always random variables. We assume a functional relation among intensities across voxels in the images, and we use the theory of nonlinear, least-squares estimation to show that the parameters are multivariate Gaussian distributed. We then use the covariance matrix of this distribution to compute the confidence intervals of the transformation parameters. These confidence intervals provide a quantitative assessment of the registration error across the images. Because transformation parameters are nonlinearly related to the coordinates of landmark points in the brain, we subsequently show that the coordinates of those landmark points are also multivariate Gaussian distributed. Using these distributions, we then compute the confidence intervals of the coordinates for landmark points in the image. Each of these confidence intervals in turn provides a quantitative assessment of the registration error at a particular landmark point. Because our method is computationally intensive, however, its current implementation is limited to assessing the error of the parameters in the similarity transformation across images. We assessed the

Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

PubMed

Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

2012-08-01

Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oranje, Andreas

2006-01-01

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2009-01-01

Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

Examples of S1 coverage intervals with very good and very bad long-run success rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giaquinto, Nicola; Fabbiano, Laura

2016-04-01

The paper illustrates, by means of selected examples, the merits and the limits of the method for computing coverage intervals described in the Supplement 1 to the GUM. The assessment of coverage intervals is done by evaluating their long-run success rate. Three pairs of examples are presented, relative to three different ways of generating incomplete knowledge about quantities: toss of dice, presence of additive noise, quantization. In all the pairs of examples, the first one results in a coverage interval with a long-run success rate equal to the coverage probability (set to 95%); the second one, instead, yields an interval with a success rate near to zero. The paper shows that the propagation mechanism of the Supplement 1, while working well in certain special cases, yields unacceptable results in others, and that the problematic issues cannot be neglected. The conclusion is that, if a Bayesian approach to uncertainty evaluation is adopted, the propagation is a particularly delicate issue.

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Amy E.

2014-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the concordance correlation coefficient and intraclass correlation coefficient with small number of raters.

PubMed

Feng, Dai; Svetnik, Vladimir; Coimbra, Alexandre; Baumgartner, Richard

2014-01-01

The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with fixed raters or, equivalently, the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) for continuous outcomes is a widely accepted aggregate index of agreement in settings with small number of raters. Quantifying the precision of the CCC by constructing its confidence interval (CI) is important in early drug development applications, in particular in qualification of biomarker platforms. In recent years, there have been several new methods proposed for construction of CIs for the CCC, but their comprehensive comparison has not been attempted. The methods consisted of the delta method and jackknifing with and without Fisher's Z-transformation, respectively, and Bayesian methods with vague priors. In this study, we carried out a simulation study, with data simulated from multivariate normal as well as heavier tailed distribution (t-distribution with 5 degrees of freedom), to compare the state-of-the-art methods for assigning CI to the CCC. When the data are normally distributed, the jackknifing with Fisher's Z-transformation (JZ) tended to provide superior coverage and the difference between it and the closest competitor, the Bayesian method with the Jeffreys prior was in general minimal. For the nonnormal data, the jackknife methods, especially the JZ method, provided the coverage probabilities closest to the nominal in contrast to the others which yielded overly liberal coverage. Approaches based upon the delta method and Bayesian method with conjugate prior generally provided slightly narrower intervals and larger lower bounds than others, though this was offset by their poor coverage. Finally, we illustrated the utility of the CIs for the CCC in an example of a wake after sleep onset (WASO) biomarker, which is frequently used in clinical sleep studies of drugs for treatment of insomnia.

Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

PubMed

Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2014-10-01

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnette, J. Jackson

2005-01-01

An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

Evaluating the Impact of Guessing and Its Interactions With Other Test Characteristics on Confidence Interval Procedures for Coefficient Alpha

PubMed Central

Paek, Insu

2015-01-01

The effect of guessing on the point estimate of coefficient alpha has been studied in the literature, but the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on the interval estimators for coefficient alpha has not been fully investigated. This study examined the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on four confidence interval (CI) procedures for coefficient alpha in terms of coverage rate (CR), length, and the degree of asymmetry of CI estimates. In addition, interval estimates of coefficient alpha when data follow the essentially tau-equivalent condition were investigated as a supplement to the case of dichotomous data with examinee guessing. For dichotomous data with guessing, the results did not reveal salient negative effects of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics (sample size, test length, coefficient alpha levels) on CR and the degree of asymmetry, but the effect of guessing was salient as a main effect and an interaction effect with sample size on the length of the CI estimates, making longer CI estimates as guessing increases, especially when combined with a small sample size. Other important effects (e.g., CI procedures on CR) are also discussed. PMID:29795863

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English

2000-01-01

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

Asymptotic confidence intervals for the Pearson correlation via skewness and kurtosis.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Li, Jiexiang; Nash, Thomas

2018-02-01

When bivariate normality is violated, the default confidence interval of the Pearson correlation can be inaccurate. Two new methods were developed based on the asymptotic sampling distribution of Fisher's z' under the general case where bivariate normality need not be assumed. In Monte Carlo simulations, the most successful of these methods relied on the (Vale & Maurelli, 1983, Psychometrika, 48, 465) family to approximate a distribution via the marginal skewness and kurtosis of the sample data. In Simulation 1, this method provided more accurate confidence intervals of the correlation in non-normal data, at least as compared to no adjustment of the Fisher z' interval, or to adjustment via the sample joint moments. In Simulation 2, this approximate distribution method performed favourably relative to common non-parametric bootstrap methods, but its performance was mixed relative to an observed imposed bootstrap and two other robust methods (PM1 and HC4). No method was completely satisfactory. An advantage of the approximate distribution method, though, is that it can be implemented even without access to raw data if sample skewness and kurtosis are reported, making the method particularly useful for meta-analysis. Supporting information includes R code. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

Teach a Confidence Interval for the Median in the First Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howington, Eric B.

2017-01-01

Few introductory statistics courses consider statistical inference for the median. This article argues in favour of adding a confidence interval for the median to the first statistics course. Several methods suitable for introductory statistics students are identified and briefly reviewed.

Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

2000-01-01

In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

On the appropriateness of applying chi-square distribution based confidence intervals to spectral estimates of helicopter flyover data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutledge, Charles K.

1988-01-01

The validity of applying chi-square based confidence intervals to far-field acoustic flyover spectral estimates was investigated. Simulated data, using a Kendall series and experimental acoustic data from the NASA/McDonnell Douglas 500E acoustics test, were analyzed. Statistical significance tests to determine the equality of distributions of the simulated and experimental data relative to theoretical chi-square distributions were performed. Bias and uncertainty errors associated with the spectral estimates were easily identified from the data sets. A model relating the uncertainty and bias errors to the estimates resulted, which aided in determining the appropriateness of the chi-square distribution based confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals were appropriate for nontonally associated frequencies of the experimental data but were inappropriate for tonally associated estimate distributions. The appropriateness at the tonally associated frequencies was indicated by the presence of bias error and noncomformity of the distributions to the theoretical chi-square distribution. A technique for determining appropriate confidence intervals at the tonally associated frequencies was suggested.

Procedures for estimating confidence intervals for selected method performance parameters.

PubMed

McClure, F D; Lee, J K

2001-01-01

Procedures for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for the repeatability variance (sigmar2), reproducibility variance (sigmaR2 = sigmaL2 + sigmar2), laboratory component (sigmaL2), and their corresponding standard deviations sigmar, sigmaR, and sigmaL, respectively, are presented. In addition, CIs for the ratio of the repeatability component to the reproducibility variance (sigmar2/sigmaR2) and the ratio of the laboratory component to the reproducibility variance (sigmaL2/sigmaR2) are also presented.

Applications of asymptotic confidence intervals with continuity corrections for asymmetric comparisons in noninferiority trials.

PubMed

Soulakova, Julia N; Bright, Brianna C

2013-01-01

A large-sample problem of illustrating noninferiority of an experimental treatment over a referent treatment for binary outcomes is considered. The methods of illustrating noninferiority involve constructing the lower two-sided confidence bound for the difference between binomial proportions corresponding to the experimental and referent treatments and comparing it with the negative value of the noninferiority margin. The three considered methods, Anbar, Falk-Koch, and Reduced Falk-Koch, handle the comparison in an asymmetric way, that is, only the referent proportion out of the two, experimental and referent, is directly involved in the expression for the variance of the difference between two sample proportions. Five continuity corrections (including zero) are considered with respect to each approach. The key properties of the corresponding methods are evaluated via simulations. First, the uncorrected two-sided confidence intervals can, potentially, have smaller coverage probability than the nominal level even for moderately large sample sizes, for example, 150 per group. Next, the 15 testing methods are discussed in terms of their Type I error rate and power. In the settings with a relatively small referent proportion (about 0.4 or smaller), the Anbar approach with Yates' continuity correction is recommended for balanced designs and the Falk-Koch method with Yates' correction is recommended for unbalanced designs. For relatively moderate (about 0.6) and large (about 0.8 or greater) referent proportion, the uncorrected Reduced Falk-Koch method is recommended, although in this case, all methods tend to be over-conservative. These results are expected to be used in the design stage of a noninferiority study when asymmetric comparisons are envisioned. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using Confidence Intervals and Recurrence Intervals to Determine Precipitation Delivery Mechanisms Responsible for Mass Wasting Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulizio, T. P.; Bilbrey, C.; Stoyanoff, N.; Dixon, J. L.

2015-12-01

Mass wasting events are geologic hazards that impact human life and property across a variety of landscapes. These movements can be triggered by tectonic activity, anomalous precipitation events, or both; acting to decrease the factor of safety ratio on a hillslope to the point of failure. There exists an active hazard landscape in the West Boulder River drainage of Park Co., MT in which the mechanisms of slope failure are unknown. It is known that region has not seen significant tectonic activity within the last decade, leaving anomalous precipitation events as the likely trigger for slope failures in the landscape. Precipitation can be delivered to a landscape via rainfall or snow; it was the aim of this study to determine the precipitation delivery mechanism most likely responsible for movements in the West Boulder drainage following the Jungle Wildfire of 2006. Data was compiled from four SNOTEL sites in the surrounding area, spanning 33 years, focusing on, but not limited to; maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) values in a water year, median SWE values on the date which maximum SWE was recorded in a water year, the total precipitation accumulated in a water year, etc. Means were computed and 99% confidence intervals were constructed around these means. Recurrence intervals and exceedance probabilities were computed for maximum SWE values and total precipitation accumulated in a water year to determine water years with anomalous precipitation. It was determined that the water year 2010-2011 received an anomalously high amount of SWE, and snow melt in the spring of this water year likely triggered recent mass waste movements. This data is further supported by Google Earth imagery, showing movements between 2009 and 2011. Return intervals for the maximum SWE value in 2010-11 for the Placer Basin SNOTEL site was 34 years, while return intervals for the Box Canyon and Monument Peak SNOTEL sites were 17.5 and 17 years respectively. Max SWE values lie outside the

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Another look at confidence intervals: Proposal for a more relevant and transparent approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biller, Steven D.; Oser, Scott M.

2015-02-01

The behaviors of various confidence/credible interval constructions are explored, particularly in the region of low event numbers where methods diverge most. We highlight a number of challenges, such as the treatment of nuisance parameters, and common misconceptions associated with such constructions. An informal survey of the literature suggests that confidence intervals are not always defined in relevant ways and are too often misinterpreted and/or misapplied. This can lead to seemingly paradoxical behaviors and flawed comparisons regarding the relevance of experimental results. We therefore conclude that there is a need for a more pragmatic strategy which recognizes that, while it is critical to objectively convey the information content of the data, there is also a strong desire to derive bounds on model parameter values and a natural instinct to interpret things this way. Accordingly, we attempt to put aside philosophical biases in favor of a practical view to propose a more transparent and self-consistent approach that better addresses these issues.

Spacecraft utility and the development of confidence intervals for criticality of anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. E.

1980-01-01

The concept of spacecraft utility, a measure of its performance in orbit, is discussed and its formulation is described. Performance is defined in terms of the malfunctions that occur and the criticality to the mission of these malfunctions. Different approaches to establishing average or expected values of criticality are discussed and confidence intervals are developed for parameters used in the computation of utility.

Characterizing the Mathematics Anxiety Literature Using Confidence Intervals as a Literature Review Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Yetkiner, Z. Ebrar; Thompson, Bruce

2010-01-01

The authors report the contextualization of effect sizes within mathematics anxiety research, and more specifically within research using the Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) and the MARS for Adolescents (MARS-A). The effect sizes from 45 studies were characterized by graphing confidence intervals (CIs) across studies involving (a) adults…

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2017-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurdugul, Halil

2009-01-01

This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

Confidence intervals for the first crossing point of two hazard functions.

PubMed

Cheng, Ming-Yen; Qiu, Peihua; Tan, Xianming; Tu, Dongsheng

2009-12-01

The phenomenon of crossing hazard rates is common in clinical trials with time to event endpoints. Many methods have been proposed for testing equality of hazard functions against a crossing hazards alternative. However, there has been relatively few approaches available in the literature for point or interval estimation of the crossing time point. The problem of constructing confidence intervals for the first crossing time point of two hazard functions is considered in this paper. After reviewing a recent procedure based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event, a nonparametric procedure using the kernel smoothing estimate of the hazard ratio is proposed. The proposed procedure and the one based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event are both evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations and applied to two clinical trial datasets.

How to Avoid Errors in Error Propagation: Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals in Forest Biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lilly, P.; Yanai, R. D.; Buckley, H. L.; Case, B. S.; Woollons, R. C.; Holdaway, R. J.; Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Calculations of forest biomass and elemental content require many measurements and models, each contributing uncertainty to the final estimates. While sampling error is commonly reported, based on replicate plots, error due to uncertainty in the regression used to estimate biomass from tree diameter is usually not quantified. Some published estimates of uncertainty due to the regression models have used the uncertainty in the prediction of individuals, ignoring uncertainty in the mean, while others have propagated uncertainty in the mean while ignoring individual variation. Using the simple case of the calcium concentration of sugar maple leaves, we compare the variation among individuals (the standard deviation) to the uncertainty in the mean (the standard error) and illustrate the declining importance in the prediction of individual concentrations as the number of individuals increases. For allometric models, the analogous statistics are the prediction interval (or the residual variation in the model fit) and the confidence interval (describing the uncertainty in the best fit model). The effect of propagating these two sources of error is illustrated using the mass of sugar maple foliage. The uncertainty in individual tree predictions was large for plots with few trees; for plots with 30 trees or more, the uncertainty in individuals was less important than the uncertainty in the mean. Authors of previously published analyses have reanalyzed their data to show the magnitude of these two sources of uncertainty in scales ranging from experimental plots to entire countries. The most correct analysis will take both sources of uncertainty into account, but for practical purposes, country-level reports of uncertainty in carbon stocks, as required by the IPCC, can ignore the uncertainty in individuals. Ignoring the uncertainty in the mean will lead to exaggerated estimates of confidence in estimates of forest biomass and carbon and nutrient contents.

Using Stochastic Approximation Techniques to Efficiently Construct Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

PubMed

Schweiger, Regev; Fisher, Eyal; Rahmani, Elior; Shenhav, Liat; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

2018-06-22

Estimation of heritability is an important task in genetics. The use of linear mixed models (LMMs) to determine narrow-sense single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-heritability and related quantities has received much recent attention, due of its ability to account for variants with small effect sizes. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. The common way to report the uncertainty in REML estimation uses standard errors (SEs), which rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, for larger data sets (e.g., tens of thousands of individuals), the construction of SEs itself may require considerable time, as it requires expensive matrix inversions and multiplications. Here, we present FIESTA (Fast confidence IntErvals using STochastic Approximation), a method for constructing accurate CIs. FIESTA is based on parametric bootstrap sampling, and, therefore, avoids unjustified assumptions on the distribution of the heritability estimator. FIESTA uses stochastic approximation techniques, which accelerate the construction of CIs by several orders of magnitude, compared with previous approaches as well as to the analytical approximation used by SEs. FIESTA builds accurate CIs rapidly, for example, requiring only several seconds for data sets of tens of thousands of individuals, making FIESTA a very fast solution to the problem of building accurate CIs for heritability for all data set sizes.

Statistical variability and confidence intervals for planar dose QA pass rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, Daniel W.; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Attwood, Kristopher

Purpose: The most common metric for comparing measured to calculated dose, such as for pretreatment quality assurance of intensity-modulated photon fields, is a pass rate (%) generated using percent difference (%Diff), distance-to-agreement (DTA), or some combination of the two (e.g., gamma evaluation). For many dosimeters, the grid of analyzed points corresponds to an array with a low areal density of point detectors. In these cases, the pass rates for any given comparison criteria are not absolute but exhibit statistical variability that is a function, in part, on the detector sampling geometry. In this work, the authors analyze the statistics ofmore » various methods commonly used to calculate pass rates and propose methods for establishing confidence intervals for pass rates obtained with low-density arrays. Methods: Dose planes were acquired for 25 prostate and 79 head and neck intensity-modulated fields via diode array and electronic portal imaging device (EPID), and matching calculated dose planes were created via a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates for each dose plane pair (both centered to the beam central axis) were calculated with several common comparison methods: %Diff/DTA composite analysis and gamma evaluation, using absolute dose comparison with both local and global normalization. Specialized software was designed to selectively sample the measured EPID response (very high data density) down to discrete points to simulate low-density measurements. The software was used to realign the simulated detector grid at many simulated positions with respect to the beam central axis, thereby altering the low-density sampled grid. Simulations were repeated with 100 positional iterations using a 1 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, a 2 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, and similar random detector grids. For each simulation, %/DTA composite pass rates were calculated with various %Diff/DTA criteria and for both local and global %Diff normalization

Assessing Mediational Models: Testing and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects.

PubMed

Biesanz, Jeremy C; Falk, Carl F; Savalei, Victoria

2010-08-06

Theoretical models specifying indirect or mediated effects are common in the social sciences. An indirect effect exists when an independent variable's influence on the dependent variable is mediated through an intervening variable. Classic approaches to assessing such mediational hypotheses ( Baron & Kenny, 1986 ; Sobel, 1982 ) have in recent years been supplemented by computationally intensive methods such as bootstrapping, the distribution of the product methods, and hierarchical Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These different approaches for assessing mediation are illustrated using data from Dunn, Biesanz, Human, and Finn (2007). However, little is known about how these methods perform relative to each other, particularly in more challenging situations, such as with data that are incomplete and/or nonnormal. This article presents an extensive Monte Carlo simulation evaluating a host of approaches for assessing mediation. We examine Type I error rates, power, and coverage. We study normal and nonnormal data as well as complete and incomplete data. In addition, we adapt a method, recently proposed in statistical literature, that does not rely on confidence intervals (CIs) to test the null hypothesis of no indirect effect. The results suggest that the new inferential method-the partial posterior p value-slightly outperforms existing ones in terms of maintaining Type I error rates while maximizing power, especially with incomplete data. Among confidence interval approaches, the bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrapping approach often has inflated Type I error rates and inconsistent coverage and is not recommended; In contrast, the bootstrapped percentile confidence interval and the hierarchical Bayesian MCMC method perform best overall, maintaining Type I error rates, exhibiting reasonable power, and producing stable and accurate coverage rates.

Medicaid Coverage Expansions and Cigarette Smoking Cessation Among Low-income Adults.

PubMed

Koma, Jonathan W; Donohue, Julie M; Barry, Colleen L; Huskamp, Haiden A; Jarlenski, Marian

2017-12-01

Expanding Medicaid coverage to low-income adults may have increased smoking cessation through improved access to evidence-based treatments. Our study sought to determine if states' decisions to expand Medicaid increased recent smoking cessation. Using pooled cross-sectional data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey for the years 2011-2015, we examined the association between state Medicaid coverage and the probability of recent smoking cessation among low-income adults without dependent children who were current or former smokers (n=36,083). We used difference-in-differences estimation to examine the effects of Medicaid coverage on smoking cessation, comparing low-income adult smokers in states with Medicaid coverage to comparable adults in states without Medicaid coverage, with ages 18-64 years to those ages 65 years and above. Analyses were conducted for the full sample and stratified by sex. Residence in a state with Medicaid coverage among low-income adult smokers ages 18-64 years was associated with an increase in recent smoking cessation of 2.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 0.25-3.9). In the comparison group of individuals ages 65 years and above, residence in a state with Medicaid coverage expansion was not associated with a change in recent smoking cessation (-0.1 percentage point, 95% confidence interval, -2.1 to 1.8). Similar increases in smoking cessation among those ages 18-64 years were estimated for females and males (1.9 and 2.2 percentage point, respectively). Findings are consistent with the hypothesis that Medicaid coverage expansions may have increased smoking cessation among low-income adults without dependent children via greater access to preventive health care services, including evidence-based smoking cessation services.

Open Tibia Shaft Fractures and Soft-Tissue Coverage: The Effects of Management by an Orthopaedic Microsurgical Team.

PubMed

VandenBerg, James; Osei, Daniel; Boyer, Martin I; Gardner, Michael J; Ricci, William M; Spraggs-Hughes, Amanda; McAndrew, Christopher M

2017-06-01

To compare the timing of soft-tissue (flap) coverage and occurrence of complications before and after the establishment of an integrated orthopaedic trauma/microsurgical team. Retrospective cohort study. A single level 1 trauma center. Twenty-eight subjects (13 pre- and 15 post-integration) with open tibia shaft fractures (OTA/AO 42A, 42B, and 42C) treated with flap coverage between January 2009 and March 2015. Flap coverage for open tibia shaft fractures treated before ("preintegration") and after ("postintegration") implementation of an integrated orthopaedic trauma/microsurgical team. Time from index injury to flap coverage. The unadjusted median time to coverage was 7 days (95% confidence interval, 5.9-8.1) preintegration, and 6 days (95% confidence interval, 4.6-7.4) postintegration (P = 0.48). For preintegration, 9 (69%) of the patients experienced complications, compared with 7 (47%) postintegration (P = 0.23). After formation of an integrated orthopaedic trauma/microsurgery team, we observed a 1-day decrease in median days to coverage from index injury. Complications overall were lowered in the postintegration group, although statistically insignificant. Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li

With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Childhood vaccination coverage rates among military dependents in the United States.

PubMed

Dunn, Angela C; Black, Carla L; Arnold, John; Brodine, Stephanie; Waalen, Jill; Binkin, Nancy

2015-05-01

The Military Health System provides universal coverage of all recommended childhood vaccinations. Few studies have examined the effect that being insured by the Military Health System has on childhood vaccination coverage. The purpose of this study was to compare the coverage of the universally recommended vaccines among military dependents versus other insured and uninsured children using a nationwide sample of children. The National Immunization Survey is a multistage, random-digit dialing survey designed to measure vaccination coverage estimates of US children aged 19 to 35 months old. Data from 2007 through 2012 were combined to permit comparison of vaccination coverage among military dependent and all other children. Among military dependents, 28.0% of children aged 19 to 35 months were not up to date on the 4:3:1:3:3:1 vaccination series excluding Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine compared with 21.1% of all other children (odds ratio: 1.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-1.6). After controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, compared with all other US children, military dependent children were more likely to be incompletely vaccinated (odds ratio: 1.3; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-1.5). Lower vaccination coverage rates among US military dependent children might be due to this population being highly mobile. However, the lack of a military-wide childhood immunization registry and incomplete documentation of vaccinations could contribute to the lower vaccination coverage rates seen in this study. These results suggest the need for further investigation to evaluate vaccination coverage of children with complete ascertainment of vaccination history, and if lower immunization rates are verified, assessment of reasons for lower vaccination coverage rates among military dependent children. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2016-09-20

Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

Impact of state Medicaid coverage on utilization of inpatient rehabilitation facilities among patients with stroke.

PubMed

Skolarus, Lesli E; Burke, James F; Morgenstern, Lewis B; Meurer, William J; Adelman, Eric E; Kerber, Kevin A; Callaghan, Brian C; Lisabeth, Lynda D

2014-08-01

Poststroke rehabilitation is associated with improved outcomes. Medicaid coverage of inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF) admissions varies by state. We explored the role of state Medicaid IRF coverage on IRF utilization among patients with stroke. Working age ischemic stroke patients with Medicaid were identified from the 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Medicaid coverage of IRFs (yes versus no) was ascertained. Primary outcome was discharge to IRF (versus other discharge destinations). We fit a logistic regression model that included patient demographics, Medicaid coverage, comorbidities, length of stay, tissue-type plasminogen activator use, state Medicaid IRF coverage, and the interaction between patient Medicaid status and state Medicaid IRF coverage while accounting for hospital clustering. Medicaid did not cover IRFs in 4 (TN, TX, SC, WV) of 42 states. The impact of State Medicaid IRF coverage was limited to Medicaid stroke patients (P for interaction <0.01). Compared with Medicaid stroke patients in states with Medicaid IRF coverage, Medicaid stroke patients hospitalized in states without Medicaid IRF coverage were less likely to be discharged to an IRF of 11.6% (95% confidence interval, 8.5%-14.7%) versus 19.5% (95% confidence interval, 18.3%-20.8%), P<0.01 after full adjustment. State Medicaid coverage of IRFs is associated with IRF utilization among stroke patients with Medicaid. Given the increasing stroke incidence among the working age and Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, careful attention to state Medicaid policy for poststroke rehabilitation and analysis of its effects on stroke outcome disparities are warranted. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

PubMed Central

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2016-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful because it can be used to test specific questions of central interest in studies with factorial designs. It weighs several means and combines them into one or two sets that can be tested with t tests. The effect size produced by a contrast analysis is simply the difference between means. The CI of the effect size informs directly about direction, hypothesis exclusion, and the relevance of the effects of interest. However, any interpretation in terms of precision or likelihood requires the use of likelihood intervals or credible intervals (Bayesian). These various intervals and even a Bayesian t test can be obtained easily with free software. This tutorial reviews these methods to guide researchers in answering the following questions: When I analyze mean differences in factorial designs, where can I find the effects of central interest, and what can I learn about their effect sizes? PMID:29805179

Evaluating the utility of hexapod species for calculating a confidence interval about a succession based postmortem interval estimate.

PubMed

Perez, Anne E; Haskell, Neal H; Wells, Jeffrey D

2014-08-01

Carrion insect succession patterns have long been used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) during a death investigation. However, no published carrion succession study included sufficient replication to calculate a confidence interval about a PMI estimate based on occurrence data. We exposed 53 pig carcasses (16±2.5 kg), near the likely minimum needed for such statistical analysis, at a site in north-central Indiana, USA, over three consecutive summer seasons. Insects and Collembola were sampled daily from each carcass for a total of 14 days, by this time each was skeletonized. The criteria for judging a life stage of a given species to be potentially useful for succession-based PMI estimation were (1) nonreoccurrence (observed during a single period of presence on a corpse), and (2) found in a sufficiently large proportion of carcasses to support a PMI confidence interval. For this data set that proportion threshold is 45/53. Of the 266 species collected and identified, none was nonreoccuring in that each showed at least a gap of one day on a single carcass. If the definition of nonreoccurrence is relaxed to include such a single one-day gap the larval forms of Necrophilaamericana, Fanniascalaris, Cochliomyia macellaria, Phormiaregina, and Luciliaillustris satisfied these two criteria. Adults of Creophilus maxillosus, Necrobiaruficollis, and Necrodessurinamensis were common and showed only a few, single-day gaps in occurrence. C.maxillosus, P.regina, and L.illustris displayed exceptional forensic utility in that they were observed on every carcass. Although these observations were made at a single site during one season of the year, the species we found to be useful have large geographic ranges. We suggest that future carrion insect succession research focus only on a limited set of species with high potential forensic utility so as to reduce sample effort per carcass and thereby enable increased experimental replication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland

The confidence-accuracy relationship for eyewitness identification decisions: Effects of exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention.

PubMed

Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

2013-03-01

Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the CA relationship for eyewitness identification decisions is affected by three, forensically relevant variables: exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention at encoding. In Study 1 (N = 986), a field experiment, we examined the effects of exposure duration (5 s vs. 90 s) and retention interval (immediate testing vs. a 1-week delay) on the CA relationship. In Study 2 (N = 502), we examined the effects of attention during encoding on the CA relationship by reanalyzing data from a laboratory experiment in which participants viewed a stimulus video under full or divided attention conditions and then attempted to identify two targets from separate lineups. Across both studies, all three manipulations affected identification accuracy. The central analyses concerned the CA relation for positive identification decisions. For the manipulations of exposure duration and retention interval, overconfidence was greater in the more difficult conditions (shorter exposure; delayed testing) than the easier conditions. Only the exposure duration manipulation influenced resolution (which was better for 5 s than 90 s), and only the retention interval manipulation affected calibration (which was better for immediate testing than delayed testing). In all experimental conditions, accuracy and diagnosticity increased with confidence, particularly at the upper end of the confidence scale. Implications for theory and forensic settings are discussed.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models

PubMed Central

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

PubMed

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading

Knowledge level of effect size statistics, confidence intervals and meta-analysis in Spanish academic psychologists.

PubMed

Badenes-Ribera, Laura; Frias-Navarro, Dolores; Pascual-Soler, Marcos; Monterde-I-Bort, Héctor

2016-11-01

The statistical reform movement and the American Psychological Association (APA) defend the use of estimators of the effect size and its confidence intervals, as well as the interpretation of the clinical significance of the findings. A survey was conducted in which academic psychologists were asked about their behavior in designing and carrying out their studies. The sample was composed of 472 participants (45.8% men). The mean number of years as a university professor was 13.56 years (SD= 9.27). The use of effect-size estimators is becoming generalized, as well as the consideration of meta-analytic studies. However, several inadequate practices still persist. A traditional model of methodological behavior based on statistical significance tests is maintained, based on the predominance of Cohen’s d and the unadjusted R2/η2, which are not immune to outliers or departure from normality and the violations of statistical assumptions, and the under-reporting of confidence intervals of effect-size statistics. The paper concludes with recommendations for improving statistical practice.

Confidence interval or p-value?: part 4 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.

PubMed

du Prel, Jean-Baptist; Hommel, Gerhard; Röhrig, Bernd; Blettner, Maria

2009-05-01

An understanding of p-values and confidence intervals is necessary for the evaluation of scientific articles. This article will inform the reader of the meaning and interpretation of these two statistical concepts. The uses of these two statistical concepts and the differences between them are discussed on the basis of a selective literature search concerning the methods employed in scientific articles. P-values in scientific studies are used to determine whether a null hypothesis formulated before the performance of the study is to be accepted or rejected. In exploratory studies, p-values enable the recognition of any statistically noteworthy findings. Confidence intervals provide information about a range in which the true value lies with a certain degree of probability, as well as about the direction and strength of the demonstrated effect. This enables conclusions to be drawn about the statistical plausibility and clinical relevance of the study findings. It is often useful for both statistical measures to be reported in scientific articles, because they provide complementary types of information.

A numerical approach to 14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits: best fits and confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaauw, Maarten; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Mauquoy, Dmitri; van der Plicht, Johannes; van Geel, Bas

2003-06-01

14C wiggle-match dating (WMD) of peat deposits uses the non-linear relationship between 14C age and calendar age to match the shape of a sequence of closely spaced peat 14C dates with the 14C calibration curve. A numerical approach to WMD enables the quantitative assessment of various possible wiggle-match solutions and of calendar year confidence intervals for sequences of 14C dates. We assess the assumptions, advantages, and limitations of the method. Several case-studies show that WMD results in more precise chronologies than when individual 14C dates are calibrated. WMD is most successful during periods with major excursions in the 14C calibration curve (e.g., in one case WMD could narrow down confidence intervals from 230 to 36 yr).

Effect Sizes and their Intervals: The Two-Level Repeated Measures Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2005-01-01

Probability coverage for eight different confidence intervals (CIs) of measures of effect size (ES) in a two-level repeated measures design was investigated. The CIs and measures of ES differed with regard to whether they used least squares or robust estimates of central tendency and variability, whether the end critical points of the interval…

Full prescription coverage versus usual prescription coverage after coronary artery bypass graft surgery: analysis from the post-myocardial infarction free Rx event and economic evaluation (FREEE) randomized trial.

PubMed

Kulik, Alexander; Desai, Nihar R; Shrank, William H; Antman, Elliott M; Glynn, Robert J; Levin, Raisa; Reisman, Lonny; Brennan, Troyen; Choudhry, Niteesh K

2013-09-10

Eliminating out-of-pocket costs for patients after myocardial infarction (MI) improves adherence to preventive therapies and reduces clinical events. Because adherence to medical therapy is low among patients treated with coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG), we evaluated the impact of providing full prescription coverage to this patient subgroup. The MI Free Rx Event and Economic Evaluation (FREEE) trial randomly assigned 5855 patients with MI to full prescription coverage or usual formulary coverage for all statins, β-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, or angiotensin receptor blockers. We assessed the impact of full prescription coverage on adherence, clinical outcomes, and healthcare costs using adjusted models among the 1052 patients who underwent CABG at the index hospitalization and 4803 who did not. CABG patients were older and had more comorbid illness (P<0.01). After MI, CABG patients were significantly more likely to receive β-blockers and statins but were less likely to receive angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker therapy (P<0.01). Receiving full drug coverage increased rates of adherence to all preventative medications after CABG (all P<0.05). Full coverage was also associated with nonsignificant reductions in the rate of major vascular events or revascularization for patients treated with CABG (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-1.25) or without CABG (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.06), with no interaction noted (Pint=NS). After CABG, full prescription coverage significantly reduced patient out-of-pocket spending for drugs (P=0.001) without increasing overall health expenditures (P=NS). Eliminating drug copayments after MI provides consistent benefits to patients treated with or without CABG, leading to increased medication adherence, trends toward improved clinical outcomes, and reduced patient out-of-pocket expenses.

’Exact’ Two-Sided Confidence Intervals on Nonnegative Linear Combinations of Variances.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

Colorado State University ( 042_402) II. CONTrOLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS It. REPORT OAT Office of Naval Rsearch -// 1 Jul MjW80 Statistics and...MONNEGATIVE LINEAR COMBINATIONS OF VARIANCES by Franklin A. Graybill Colorado State University and Chih-Ming Wang SPSS Inc. 1. Introduction In a paper to soon...1 + a2’ called the Nodf Led Lace Sample (HLS) confidence interval, is in 2. Aoce-3Ion For DDC TAO u*.- *- -. n c edI Ju.-’I if iction_, i !~BV . . I

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. Methods The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. Results The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. Conclusions If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used. PMID:24552686

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies.

PubMed

Kottas, Martina; Kuss, Oliver; Zapf, Antonia

2014-02-19

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

Assessing Interval Estimation Methods for Hill Model ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Hill model of concentration-response is ubiquitous in toxicology, perhaps because its parameters directly relate to biologically significant metrics of toxicity such as efficacy and potency. Point estimates of these parameters obtained through least squares regression or maximum likelihood are commonly used in high-throughput risk assessment, but such estimates typically fail to include reliable information concerning confidence in (or precision of) the estimates. To address this issue, we examined methods for assessing uncertainty in Hill model parameter estimates derived from concentration-response data. In particular, using a sample of ToxCast concentration-response data sets, we applied four methods for obtaining interval estimates that are based on asymptotic theory, bootstrapping (two varieties), and Bayesian parameter estimation, and then compared the results. These interval estimation methods generally did not agree, so we devised a simulation study to assess their relative performance. We generated simulated data by constructing four statistical error models capable of producing concentration-response data sets comparable to those observed in ToxCast. We then applied the four interval estimation methods to the simulated data and compared the actual coverage of the interval estimates to the nominal coverage (e.g., 95%) in order to quantify performance of each of the methods in a variety of cases (i.e., different values of the true Hill model paramet

Self-confidence and affect responses to short-term sprint interval training.

PubMed

Selmi, Walid; Rebai, Haithem; Chtara, Mokhtar; Naceur, Abdelmajid; Sahli, Sonia

2018-05-01

The study aimed to investigate the effects of repeated sprint (RS) training on somatic anxiety (SA), cognitive anxiety (CA), self-confidence (SC), rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and repeated sprint ability (RSA) indicators in elite young soccer players. Thirty elite soccer players in the first football league (age: 17.8±0.9years) volunteered to participate in this study. They were randomly assigned to one of two groups: a repeated sprint training group (RST-G; n=15) and a control group (CON-G; n=15). RST-G participated in 6weeks of intensive training based on RS (6×(20+20m) runs, with 20s passive recovery interval between sprints, 3 times/week). Before and after the 6-week intervention, all participants performed a RSA test and completed a Competitive Scale Anxiety Inventory (CSAI-2) and the RPE. After training RST-G showed a very significant (p<0.000) increase in RSA total time performance relative to controls. Despite the faster sprint pace, the RPE also decreased significantly (p<0.005) in RST-G, and their self confidence was significantly greater (p<0.01), while the cognitive (p<0.01) and somatic (p<0.000) components of their anxiety state decreased. When practiced regularly, short bouts of sprint exercises improve anaerobic performance associated with a reduction in anxiety state and an increase in SC which may probably boost competitive performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experimental optimization of the number of blocks by means of algorithms parameterized by confidence interval in popcorn breeding.

PubMed

Paula, T O M; Marinho, C D; Amaral Júnior, A T; Peternelli, L A; Gonçalves, L S A

2013-06-27

The objective of this study was to determine the optimal number of repetitions to be used in competition trials of popcorn traits related to production and quality, including grain yield and expansion capacity. The experiments were conducted in 3 environments representative of the north and northwest regions of the State of Rio de Janeiro with 10 Brazilian genotypes of popcorn, consisting by 4 commercial hybrids (IAC 112, IAC 125, Zélia, and Jade), 4 improved varieties (BRS Ângela, UFVM-2 Barão de Viçosa, Beija-flor, and Viçosa) and 2 experimental populations (UNB2U-C3 and UNB2U-C4). The experimental design utilized was a randomized complete block design with 7 repetitions. The Bootstrap method was employed to obtain samples of all of the possible combinations within the 7 blocks. Subsequently, the confidence intervals of the parameters of interest were calculated for all simulated data sets. The optimal number of repetition for all of the traits was considered when all of the estimates of the parameters in question were encountered within the confidence interval. The estimates of the number of repetitions varied according to the parameter estimated, variable evaluated, and environment cultivated, ranging from 2 to 7. It is believed that only the expansion capacity traits in the Colégio Agrícola environment (for residual variance and coefficient of variation), and number of ears per plot, in the Itaocara environment (for coefficient of variation) needed 7 repetitions to fall within the confidence interval. Thus, for the 3 studies conducted, we can conclude that 6 repetitions are optimal for obtaining high experimental precision.

UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMATIC MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THERMAL-OPTICAL ANALYSIS FOR PM BLACK CARBON USING RESPONSE SURFACES AND SURFACE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

EPA Science Inventory

Results from a NIST-EPA Interagency Agreement on Understanding Systematic Measurement Error in Thermal-Optical Analysis for PM Black Carbon Using Response Surfaces and Surface Confidence Intervals will be presented at the American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) 24th Annu...

Accurate estimation of normal incidence absorption coefficients with confidence intervals using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuye, Cedric; Vanlanduit, Steve; Guillaume, Patrick

2009-06-01

When using optical measurements of the sound fields inside a glass tube, near the material under test, to estimate the reflection and absorption coefficients, not only these acoustical parameters but also confidence intervals can be determined. The sound fields are visualized using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV). In this paper the influence of different test signals on the quality of the results, obtained with this technique, is examined. The amount of data gathered during one measurement scan makes a thorough statistical analysis possible leading to the knowledge of confidence intervals. The use of a multi-sine, constructed on the resonance frequencies of the test tube, shows to be a very good alternative for the traditional periodic chirp. This signal offers the ability to obtain data for multiple frequencies in one measurement, without the danger of a low signal-to-noise ratio. The variability analysis in this paper clearly shows the advantages of the proposed multi-sine compared to the periodic chirp. The measurement procedure and the statistical analysis are validated by measuring the reflection ratio at a closed end and comparing the results with the theoretical value. Results of the testing of two building materials (an acoustic ceiling tile and linoleum) are presented and compared to supplier data.

Practical Advice on Calculating Confidence Intervals for Radioprotection Effects and Reducing Animal Numbers in Radiation Countermeasure Experiments

PubMed Central

Landes, Reid D.; Lensing, Shelly Y.; Kodell, Ralph L.; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

2014-01-01

The dose of a substance that causes death in P% of a population is called an LDP, where LD stands for lethal dose. In radiation research, a common LDP of interest is the radiation dose that kills 50% of the population by a specified time, i.e., lethal dose 50 or LD50. When comparing LD50 between two populations, relative potency is the parameter of interest. In radiation research, this is commonly known as the dose reduction factor (DRF). Unfortunately, statistical inference on dose reduction factor is seldom reported. We illustrate how to calculate confidence intervals for dose reduction factor, which may then be used for statistical inference. Further, most dose reduction factor experiments use hundreds, rather than tens of animals. Through better dosing strategies and the use of a recently available sample size formula, we also show how animal numbers may be reduced while maintaining high statistical power. The illustrations center on realistic examples comparing LD50 values between a radiation countermeasure group and a radiation-only control. We also provide easy-to-use spreadsheets for sample size calculations and confidence interval calculations, as well as SAS® and R code for the latter. PMID:24164553

Using confidence intervals to evaluate the focus alignment of spectrograph detector arrays.

PubMed

Sawyer, Travis W; Hawkins, Kyle S; Damento, Michael

2017-06-20

High-resolution spectrographs extract detailed spectral information of a sample and are frequently used in astronomy, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy. These instruments employ dispersive elements such as prisms and diffraction gratings to spatially separate different wavelengths of light, which are then detected by a charge-coupled device (CCD) or complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) detector array. Precise alignment along the optical axis (focus position) of the detector array is critical to maximize the instrumental resolution; however, traditional approaches of scanning the detector through focus lack a quantitative measure of precision, limiting the repeatability and relying on one's experience. Here we propose a method to evaluate the focus alignment of spectrograph detector arrays by establishing confidence intervals to measure the alignment precision. We show that propagation of uncertainty can be used to estimate the variance in an alignment, thus providing a quantitative and repeatable means to evaluate the precision and confidence of an alignment. We test the approach by aligning the detector array of a prototype miniature echelle spectrograph. The results indicate that the procedure effectively quantifies alignment precision, enabling one to objectively determine when an alignment has reached an acceptable level. This quantitative approach also provides a foundation for further optimization, including automated alignment. Furthermore, the procedure introduced here can be extended to other alignment techniques that rely on numerically fitting data to a model, providing a general framework for evaluating the precision of alignment methods.

Population-based coverage survey results following the mass drug administration of azithromycin for the treatment of trachoma in Amhara, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Astale, Tigist; Sata, Eshetu; Zerihun, Mulat; Nute, Andrew W; Stewart, Aisha E P; Gessese, Demelash; Ayenew, Gedefaw; Melak, Berhanu; Chanyalew, Melsew; Tadesse, Zerihun; Callahan, E Kelly; Nash, Scott D

2018-02-01

Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. In communities where the district level prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular among children ages 1-9 years is ≥5%, WHO recommends annual mass drug administration (MDA) of antibiotics with the aim of at least 80% coverage. Population-based post-MDA coverage surveys are essential to understand the effectiveness of MDA programs, yet published reports from trachoma programs are rare. In the Amhara region of Ethiopia, a population-based MDA coverage survey was conducted 3 weeks following the 2016 MDA to estimate the zonal prevalence of self-reported drug coverage in all 10 administrative zones. Survey households were selected using a multi-stage cluster random sampling design and all individuals in selected households were presented with a drug sample and asked about taking the drug during the campaign. Zonal estimates were weighted and confidence intervals were calculated using survey procedures. Self-reported drug coverage was then compared with regional reported administrative coverage. Region-wide, 24,248 individuals were enumerated, of which, 20,942 (86.4%) individuals were present. The regional self-reported antibiotic coverage was 76.8% (95%Confidence Interval (CI):69.3-82.9%) in the population overall and 77.4% (95%CI = 65.7-85.9%) among children ages 1-9 years old. Zonal coverage ranged from 67.8% to 90.2%. Five out of 10 zones achieved a coverage >80%. In all zones, the reported administrative coverage was greater than 90% and was considerably higher than self-reported MDA coverage. Main reasons reported for MDA campaign non-attendance included being physically unable to get to MDA site (22.5%), traveling (20.6%), and not knowing about the campaign (21.0%). MDA refusal was low (2.8%) in this population. Although self-reported MDA coverage in Amhara was greater than 80% in some zones, programmatic improvements are warranted throughout Amhara to achieve higher coverage. These

An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick Charles

1985-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

CI2 for creating and comparing confidence-intervals for time-series bivariate plots.

PubMed

Mullineaux, David R

2017-02-01

Currently no method exists for calculating and comparing the confidence-intervals (CI) for the time-series of a bivariate plot. The study's aim was to develop 'CI2' as a method to calculate the CI on time-series bivariate plots, and to identify if the CI between two bivariate time-series overlap. The test data were the knee and ankle angles from 10 healthy participants running on a motorised standard-treadmill and non-motorised curved-treadmill. For a recommended 10+ trials, CI2 involved calculating 95% confidence-ellipses at each time-point, then taking as the CI the points on the ellipses that were perpendicular to the direction vector between the means of two adjacent time-points. Consecutive pairs of CI created convex quadrilaterals, and any overlap of these quadrilaterals at the same time or ±1 frame as a time-lag calculated using cross-correlations, indicated where the two time-series differed. CI2 showed no group differences between left and right legs on both treadmills, but the same legs between treadmills for all participants showed differences of less knee extension on the curved-treadmill before heel-strike. To improve and standardise the use of CI2 it is recommended to remove outlier time-series, use 95% confidence-ellipses, and scale the ellipse by the fixed Chi-square value as opposed to the sample-size dependent F-value. For practical use, and to aid in standardisation or future development of CI2, Matlab code is provided. CI2 provides an effective method to quantify the CI of bivariate plots, and to explore the differences in CI between two bivariate time-series. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proportion of general factor variance in a hierarchical multiple-component measuring instrument: a note on a confidence interval estimation procedure.

PubMed

Raykov, Tenko; Zinbarg, Richard E

2011-05-01

A confidence interval construction procedure for the proportion of explained variance by a hierarchical, general factor in a multi-component measuring instrument is outlined. The method provides point and interval estimates for the proportion of total scale score variance that is accounted for by the general factor, which could be viewed as common to all components. The approach may also be used for testing composite (one-tailed) or simple hypotheses about this proportion, and is illustrated with a pair of examples. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Confidence Intervals for the Probability of Superiority Effect Size Measure and the Area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruscio, John; Mullen, Tara

2012-01-01

It is good scientific practice to the report an appropriate estimate of effect size and a confidence interval (CI) to indicate the precision with which a population effect was estimated. For comparisons of 2 independent groups, a probability-based effect size estimator (A) that is equal to the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve…

The Precision of Effect Size Estimation From Published Psychological Research: Surveying Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Brand, Andrew; Bradley, Michael T

2016-02-01

Confidence interval ( CI) widths were calculated for reported Cohen's d standardized effect sizes and examined in two automated surveys of published psychological literature. The first survey reviewed 1,902 articles from Psychological Science. The second survey reviewed a total of 5,169 articles from across the following four APA journals: Journal of Abnormal Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, and Developmental Psychology. The median CI width for d was greater than 1 in both surveys. Hence, CI widths were, as Cohen (1994) speculated, embarrassingly large. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that CI widths varied across psychological research areas and that CI widths were not discernably decreasing over time. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed along with ways of reducing the CI widths and thus improving precision of effect size estimation.

Generalized additive models and Lucilia sericata growth: assessing confidence intervals and error rates in forensic entomology.

PubMed

Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

2008-07-01

Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.

Prediction of the distillation temperatures of crude oils using ¹H NMR and support vector regression with estimated confidence intervals.

PubMed

Filgueiras, Paulo R; Terra, Luciana A; Castro, Eustáquio V R; Oliveira, Lize M S L; Dias, Júlio C M; Poppi, Ronei J

2015-09-01

This paper aims to estimate the temperature equivalent to 10% (T10%), 50% (T50%) and 90% (T90%) of distilled volume in crude oils using (1)H NMR and support vector regression (SVR). Confidence intervals for the predicted values were calculated using a boosting-type ensemble method in a procedure called ensemble support vector regression (eSVR). The estimated confidence intervals obtained by eSVR were compared with previously accepted calculations from partial least squares (PLS) models and a boosting-type ensemble applied in the PLS method (ePLS). By using the proposed boosting strategy, it was possible to identify outliers in the T10% property dataset. The eSVR procedure improved the accuracy of the distillation temperature predictions in relation to standard PLS, ePLS and SVR. For T10%, a root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 11.6°C was obtained in comparison with 15.6°C for PLS, 15.1°C for ePLS and 28.4°C for SVR. The RMSEPs for T50% were 24.2°C, 23.4°C, 22.8°C and 14.4°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. For T90%, the values of RMSEP were 39.0°C, 39.9°C and 39.9°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. The confidence intervals calculated by the proposed boosting methodology presented acceptable values for the three properties analyzed; however, they were lower than those calculated by the standard methodology for PLS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coverage, efficacy or dosing interval: which factor predominantly influences the impact of routine childhood vaccination for the prevention of varicella? A model-based study for Italy.

PubMed

Holl, Katsiaryna; Sauboin, Christophe; Amodio, Emanuele; Bonanni, Paolo; Gabutti, Giovanni

2016-10-21

Varicella is a highly infectious disease with a significant public health and economic burden, which can be prevented with childhood routine varicella vaccination. Vaccination strategies differ by country. Some factors are known to play an important role (number of doses, coverage, dosing interval, efficacy and catch-up programmes), however, their relative impact on the reduction of varicella in the population remains unclear. This paper aims to help policy makers prioritise the critical factors to achieve the most successful vaccination programme with the available budget. Scenarios assessed the impact of different vaccination strategies on reduction of varicella disease in the population. A dynamic transmission model was used and adapted to fit Italian demographics and population mixing patterns. Inputs included coverage, number of doses, dosing intervals, first-dose efficacy and availability of catch-up programmes, based on strategies currently used or likely to be used in different countries. The time horizon was 30 years. Both one- and two-dose routine varicella vaccination strategies prevented a comparable number of varicella cases with complications, but two-doses provided broader protection due to prevention of a higher number of milder varicella cases. A catch-up programme in susceptible adolescents aged 10-14 years old reduced varicella cases by 27-43 % in older children, which are often more severe than in younger children. Coverage, for all strategies, sustained at high levels achieved the largest reduction in varicella. In general, a 20 % increase in coverage resulted in a further 27-31 % reduction in varicella cases. When high coverage is reached, the impact of dosing interval and first-dose vaccine efficacy had a relatively lower impact on disease prevention in the population. Compared to the long (11 years) dosing interval, the short (5 months) and medium (5 years) interval schedules reduced varicella cases by a further 5-13 % and 2-5�

An evaluation of voluntary 2-dose varicella vaccination coverage in New York City public schools.

PubMed

Doll, Margaret K; Rosen, Jennifer B; Bialek, Stephanie R; Szeto, Hiram; Zimmerman, Christopher M

2015-05-01

We assessed coverage for 2-dose varicella vaccination, which is not required for school entry, among New York City public school students and examined characteristics associated with receipt of 2 doses. We measured receipt of either at least 1 or 2 doses of varicella vaccine among students aged 4 years and older in a sample of 336 public schools (n = 223 864 students) during the 2010 to 2011 school year. Data came from merged student vaccination records from 2 administrative data systems. We conducted multivariable regression to assess associations of age, gender, race/ethnicity, and school location with 2-dose prevalence. Coverage with at least 1 varicella dose was 96.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 96.2%, 96.3%); coverage with at least 2 doses was 64.8% (95% CI = 64.6%, 64.9%). Increasing student age, non-Hispanic White race/ethnicity, and attendance at school in Staten Island were associated with lower 2-dose coverage. A 2-dose varicella vaccine requirement for school entry would likely improve 2-dose coverage, eliminate coverage disparities, and prevent disease.

Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

PubMed

Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

2015-01-01

The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

State Medicaid Coverage, ESRD Incidence, and Access to Care

PubMed Central

Goldstein, Benjamin A.; Hall, Yoshio N.; Mitani, Aya A.; Winkelmayer, Wolfgang C.

2014-01-01

The proportion of low-income nonelderly adults covered by Medicaid varies widely by state. We sought to determine whether broader state Medicaid coverage, defined as the proportion of each state’s low-income nonelderly adult population covered by Medicaid, associates with lower state-level incidence of ESRD and greater access to care. The main outcomes were incidence of ESRD and five indicators of access to care. We identified 408,535 adults aged 20–64 years, who developed ESRD between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2008. Medicaid coverage among low-income nonelderly adults ranged from 12.2% to 66.0% (median 32.5%). For each additional 10% of the low-income nonelderly population covered by Medicaid, there was a 1.8% (95% confidence interval, 1.0% to 2.6%) decrease in ESRD incidence. Among nonelderly adults with ESRD, gaps in access to care between those with private insurance and those with Medicaid were narrower in states with broader coverage. For a 50-year-old white woman, the access gap to the kidney transplant waiting list between Medicaid and private insurance decreased by 7.7 percentage points in high (>45%) versus low (<25%) Medicaid coverage states. Similarly, the access gap to transplantation decreased by 4.0 percentage points and the access gap to peritoneal dialysis decreased by 3.8 percentage points in high Medicaid coverage states. In conclusion, states with broader Medicaid coverage had a lower incidence of ESRD and smaller insurance-related access gaps. PMID:24652791

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Mital, Subodh K.

2008-01-01

an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Optimize the Coverage Probability of Prediction Interval for Anomaly Detection of Sensor-Based Monitoring Series

PubMed Central

Liu, Datong; Peng, Yu; Peng, Xiyuan

2018-01-01

Effective anomaly detection of sensing data is essential for identifying potential system failures. Because they require no prior knowledge or accumulated labels, and provide uncertainty presentation, the probability prediction methods (e.g., Gaussian process regression (GPR) and relevance vector machine (RVM)) are especially adaptable to perform anomaly detection for sensing series. Generally, one key parameter of prediction models is coverage probability (CP), which controls the judging threshold of the testing sample and is generally set to a default value (e.g., 90% or 95%). There are few criteria to determine the optimal CP for anomaly detection. Therefore, this paper designs a graphic indicator of the receiver operating characteristic curve of prediction interval (ROC-PI) based on the definition of the ROC curve which can depict the trade-off between the PI width and PI coverage probability across a series of cut-off points. Furthermore, the Youden index is modified to assess the performance of different CPs, by the minimization of which the optimal CP is derived by the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm. Experiments conducted on two simulation datasets demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. Especially, an actual case study on sensing series from an on-orbit satellite illustrates its significant performance in practical application. PMID:29587372

Tablet potency of Tianeptine in coated tablets by near infrared spectroscopy: model optimisation, calibration transfer and confidence intervals.

PubMed

Boiret, Mathieu; Meunier, Loïc; Ginot, Yves-Michel

2011-02-20

A near infrared (NIR) method was developed for determination of tablet potency of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in a complex coated tablet matrix. The calibration set contained samples from laboratory and production scale batches. The reference values were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and partial least squares (PLS) regression was used to establish a model. The model was challenged by calculating tablet potency of two external test sets. Root mean square errors of prediction were respectively equal to 2.0% and 2.7%. To use this model with a second spectrometer from the production field, a calibration transfer method called piecewise direct standardisation (PDS) was used. After the transfer, the root mean square error of prediction of the first test set was 2.4% compared to 4.0% without transferring the spectra. A statistical technique using bootstrap of PLS residuals was used to estimate confidence intervals of tablet potency calculations. This method requires an optimised PLS model, selection of the bootstrap number and determination of the risk. In the case of a chemical analysis, the tablet potency value will be included within the confidence interval calculated by the bootstrap method. An easy to use graphical interface was developed to easily determine if the predictions, surrounded by minimum and maximum values, are within the specifications defined by the regulatory organisation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Confidence interval or p-value--similarities and differences between two important methods of statistical inference of quantitative studies].

PubMed

Harari, Gil

2014-01-01

Statistic significance, also known as p-value, and CI (Confidence Interval) are common statistics measures and are essential for the statistical analysis of studies in medicine and life sciences. These measures provide complementary information about the statistical probability and conclusions regarding the clinical significance of study findings. This article is intended to describe the methodologies, compare between the methods, assert their suitability for the different needs of study results analysis and to explain situations in which each method should be used.

A mathematical framework to quantify the masking effect associated with the confidence intervals of measures of disproportionality

PubMed Central

Maignen, François; Hauben, Manfred; Dogné, Jean-Michel

2017-01-01

Background: The lower bound of the 95% confidence interval of measures of disproportionality (Lower95CI) is widely used in signal detection. Masking is a statistical issue by which true signals of disproportionate reporting are hidden by the presence of other medicines. The primary objective of our study is to develop and validate a mathematical framework for assessing the masking effect of Lower95CI. Methods: We have developed our new algorithm based on the masking ratio (MR) developed for the measures of disproportionality. A MR for the Lower95CI (MRCI) is proposed. A simulation study to validate this algorithm was also conducted. Results: We have established the existence of a very close mathematical relation between MR and MRCI. For a given drug–event pair, the same product will be responsible for the highest masking effect with the measure of disproportionality and its Lower95CI. The extent of masking is likely to be very similar across the two methods. An important proportion of identical drug–event associations affected by the presence of an important masking effect is revealed by the unmasking exercise, whether the proportional reporting ratio (PRR) or its confidence interval are used. Conclusion: The detection of the masking effect of Lower95CI can be automated. The real benefits of this unmasking in terms of new true-positive signals (rate of true-positive/false-positive) or time gained by the revealing of signals using this method have not been fully assessed. These benefits should be demonstrated in the context of prospective studies. PMID:28845231

An Evaluation of Voluntary 2-Dose Varicella Vaccination Coverage in New York City Public Schools

PubMed Central

Rosen, Jennifer B.; Bialek, Stephanie R.; Szeto, Hiram; Zimmerman, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We assessed coverage for 2-dose varicella vaccination, which is not required for school entry, among New York City public school students and examined characteristics associated with receipt of 2 doses. Methods. We measured receipt of either at least 1 or 2 doses of varicella vaccine among students aged 4 years and older in a sample of 336 public schools (n = 223 864 students) during the 2010 to 2011 school year. Data came from merged student vaccination records from 2 administrative data systems. We conducted multivariable regression to assess associations of age, gender, race/ethnicity, and school location with 2-dose prevalence. Results. Coverage with at least 1 varicella dose was 96.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 96.2%, 96.3%); coverage with at least 2 doses was 64.8% (95% CI = 64.6%, 64.9%). Increasing student age, non-Hispanic White race/ethnicity, and attendance at school in Staten Island were associated with lower 2-dose coverage. Conclusions. A 2-dose varicella vaccine requirement for school entry would likely improve 2-dose coverage, eliminate coverage disparities, and prevent disease. PMID:25521904

Methods for estimating confidence intervals in interrupted time series analyses of health interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Soumerai, Stephen B; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2009-02-01

Interrupted time series (ITS) is a strong quasi-experimental research design, which is increasingly applied to estimate the effects of health services and policy interventions. We describe and illustrate two methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) around absolute and relative changes in outcomes calculated from segmented regression parameter estimates. We used multivariate delta and bootstrapping methods (BMs) to construct CIs around relative changes in level and trend, and around absolute changes in outcome based on segmented linear regression analyses of time series data corrected for autocorrelated errors. Using previously published time series data, we estimated CIs around the effect of prescription alerts for interacting medications with warfarin on the rate of prescriptions per 10,000 warfarin users per month. Both the multivariate delta method (MDM) and the BM produced similar results. BM is preferred for calculating CIs of relative changes in outcomes of time series studies, because it does not require large sample sizes when parameter estimates are obtained correctly from the model. Caution is needed when sample size is small.

Uncertainty in Population Growth Rates: Determining Confidence Intervals from Point Estimates of Parameters

PubMed Central

Devenish Nelson, Eleanor S.; Harris, Stephen; Soulsbury, Carl D.; Richards, Shane A.; Stephens, Philip A.

2010-01-01

Background Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. Methodology/Principal Findings We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. Conclusions/Significance Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species. PMID:21049049

Immunization coverage among Hispanic ancestry, 2003 National Immunization Survey.

PubMed

Darling, Natalie J; Barker, Lawrence E; Shefer, Abigail M; Chu, Susan Y

2005-12-01

The Hispanic population is increasing and heterogeneous (Hispanic refers to persons of Spanish, Hispanic, or Latino descent). The objective was to examine immunization rates among Hispanic ancestry for the 4:3:1:3:3 series (> or = 4 doses diphtheria, tetanus toxoids, and pertussis vaccine; > or = 3 doses poliovirus vaccine; > or = 1 doses measles-containing vaccine; > or = 3 doses Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine; and > or = 3 doses hepatitis B vaccine). The National Immunization Survey measures immunization coverage among 19- to 35-month-old U.S. children. Coverage was compared from combined 2001-2003 data among Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites using t-tests, and among Hispanic ancestry using a chi-square test. Hispanics were categorized as Mexican, Mexican American, Central American, South American, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Spanish Caribbean (primarily Dominican Republic), other, and multiple ancestry. Children of Hispanic ancestry increased from 21% in 1999 to 25% in 2003. These Hispanic children were less well immunized than non-Hispanic whites (77.0%, +/-2.1% [95% confidence interval] compared to 82.5%, +/-1.1% (95% CI) > in 2003). Immunization coverage did not vary significantly among Hispanics of varying ancestries (p=0.26); however, there was substantial geographic variability. In some areas, immunization coverage among Hispanics was significantly higher than non-Hispanic whites. Hispanic children were less well immunized than non-Hispanic whites; however, coverage varied notably by geographic area. Although a chi-square test found no significant differences in coverage among Hispanic ancestries, the range of coverage, 79.2%, +/-5.1% for Cuban Americans to 72.1%, +/-2.4% for Mexican descent, may suggest a need for improved and more localized monitoring among Hispanic communities.

Two Birds With One Stone: Estimating Population Vaccination Coverage From a Test-negative Vaccine Effectiveness Case-control Study.

PubMed

Doll, Margaret K; Morrison, Kathryn T; Buckeridge, David L; Quach, Caroline

2016-10-15

Vaccination program evaluation includes assessment of vaccine uptake and direct vaccine effectiveness (VE). Often examined separately, we propose a design to estimate rotavirus vaccination coverage using controls from a rotavirus VE test-negative case-control study and to examine coverage following implementation of the Quebec, Canada, rotavirus vaccination program. We present our assumptions for using these data as a proxy for coverage in the general population, explore effects of diagnostic accuracy on coverage estimates via simulations, and validate estimates with an external source. We found 79.0% (95% confidence interval, 74.3%, 83.0%) ≥2-dose rotavirus coverage among participants eligible for publicly funded vaccination. No differences were detected between study and external coverage estimates. Simulations revealed minimal bias in estimates with high diagnostic sensitivity and specificity. We conclude that controls from a VE case-control study may be a valuable resource of coverage information when reasonable assumptions can be made for estimate generalizability; high rotavirus coverage demonstrates success of the Quebec program. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Accuracy and Coverage of Diagnosis and Procedural Coding of Severely Injured Patients in the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register: Comparison to Patient Files and the Helsinki Trauma Registry.

PubMed

Heinänen, M; Brinck, T; Handolin, L; Mattila, V M; Söderlund, T

2017-09-01

The Finnish Hospital Discharge Register data are frequently used for research purposes. The Finnish Hospital Discharge Register has shown excellent validity in single injuries or disease groups, but no studies have assessed patients with multiple trauma diagnoses. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy and coverage of the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register but at the same time validate the data of the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit. We assessed the accuracy and coverage of the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register data by comparing them to the original patient files and trauma registry files from the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit. We identified a baseline cohort of patients with severe thorax injury from the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit of 2013 (sample of 107 patients). We hypothesized that the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register would lack valuable information about these patients. Using patient files, we identified 965 trauma diagnoses in these 107 patients. From the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register, we identified 632 (65.5%) diagnoses and from the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit, 924 (95.8%) diagnoses. A total of 170 (17.6%) trauma diagnoses were missing from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register data and 41 (4.2%) from the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit data. The coverage and accuracy of diagnoses in the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register were 65.5% (95% confidence interval: 62.5%-68.5%) and 73.8% (95% confidence interval: 70.4%-77.2%), respectively, and for the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit, 95.8% (95% confidence interval: 94.5%-97.0%) and 97.6% (95% confidence interval: 96.7%-98.6%), respectively. According to patient records, these patients were subjects in 249 operations. We identified 40 (16.1%) missing operation codes from the Finnish Hospital

Universal Health Coverage in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessment of Global Health Experts' Confidence in Policy Options.

PubMed

Paul, Elisabeth; Fecher, Fabienne; Meloni, Remo; van Lerberghe, Wim

2018-05-29

Many countries rely on standard recipes for accelerating progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). With limited generalizable empirical evidence, expert confidence and consensus plays a major role in shaping country policy choices. This article presents an exploratory attempt conducted between April and September 2016 to measure confidence and consensus among a panel of global health experts in terms of the effectiveness and feasibility of a number of policy options commonly proposed for achieving UHC in low- and middle-income countries, such as fee exemptions for certain groups of people, ring-fenced domestic health budgets, and public-private partnerships. To ensure a relative homogeneity of contexts, we focused on French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa. We initially used the Delphi method to arrive at expert consensus, but since no consensus emerged after 2 rounds, we adjusted our approach to a statistical analysis of the results from our questionnaire by measuring the degree of consensus on each policy option through 100 (signifying total consensus) minus the size of the interquartile range of the individual scores. Seventeen global health experts from various backgrounds, but with at least 20 years' experience in the broad region, participated in the 2 rounds of the study. The results provide an initial "mapping" of the opinions of a group of experts and suggest interesting lessons. For the 18 policy options proposed, consensus emerged only on strengthening the supply of quality primary health care services (judged as being effective with a confidence score of 79 and consensus score of 90), and on fee exemptions for the poorest (judged as being fairly easy to implement with a confidence score of 66 and consensus score of 85). For none of the 18 common policy options was there consensus on both potential effectiveness and feasibility, with very diverging opinions concerning 5 policy options. The lack of confidence and consensus within the panel seems to

Abstract: Inference and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects With Latent Variable Models.

PubMed

Falk, Carl F; Biesanz, Jeremy C

2011-11-30

Models specifying indirect effects (or mediation) and structural equation modeling are both popular in the social sciences. Yet relatively little research has compared methods that test for indirect effects among latent variables and provided precise estimates of the effectiveness of different methods. This simulation study provides an extensive comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals and for making inferences about indirect effects with latent variables. We compared the percentile (PC) bootstrap, bias-corrected (BC) bootstrap, bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrap, likelihood-based confidence intervals (Neale & Miller, 1997), partial posterior predictive (Biesanz, Falk, and Savalei, 2010), and joint significance tests based on Wald tests or likelihood ratio tests. All models included three reflective latent variables representing the independent, dependent, and mediating variables. The design included the following fully crossed conditions: (a) sample size: 100, 200, and 500; (b) number of indicators per latent variable: 3 versus 5; (c) reliability per set of indicators: .7 versus .9; (d) and 16 different path combinations for the indirect effect (α = 0, .14, .39, or .59; and β = 0, .14, .39, or .59). Simulations were performed using a WestGrid cluster of 1680 3.06GHz Intel Xeon processors running R and OpenMx. Results based on 1,000 replications per cell and 2,000 resamples per bootstrap method indicated that the BC and BC a bootstrap methods have inflated Type I error rates. Likelihood-based confidence intervals and the PC bootstrap emerged as methods that adequately control Type I error and have good coverage rates.

Relationship of Hospital Staff Coverage and Delivery Room Resuscitation Practices to Birth Asphyxia.

PubMed

Tu, Joanna H; Profit, Jochen; Melsop, Kathryn; Brown, Taylor; Davis, Alexis; Main, Elliot; Lee, Henry C

2017-02-01

Objective  The objective of this study was to assess utilization of specialist coverage and checklists in perinatal settings and to examine utilization by birth asphyxia rates. Design  This is a survey study of California maternity hospitals concerning checklist use to prepare for delivery room resuscitation and 24-hour in-house specialist coverage (pediatrician/neonatologist, obstetrician, and obstetric anesthesiologist) and results linked to hospital birth asphyxia rates (preterm and low weight births were excluded). Results  Of 253 maternity hospitals, 138 responded (55%); 59 (43%) indicated checklist use, and in-house specialist coverage ranged from 38% (pediatrician/neonatologist) to 54% (anesthesiology). In-house coverage was more common in urban versus rural hospitals for all specialties ( p  < 0.0001), but checklist use was not significantly different ( p  = 0.88). Higher birth volume hospitals had more specialist coverage ( p  < 0.0001), whereas checklist use did not differ ( p  = 0.3). In-house obstetric coverage was associated with lower asphyxia rates (odds ratio: 0.34; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.20, 0.58) in a regression model accounting for other providers. Checklist use was not associated with birth asphyxia (odds ratio: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.75, 1.68). Conclusion  Higher birth volume and urban hospitals demonstrated greater in-house specialist coverage, but checklist use was similar across all hospitals. Current data suggest that in-house obstetric coverage has greater impact on asphyxia than other specialist coverage or checklist use. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Statin Adherence Under Universal Coverage: Does Sex Matter?

PubMed

Aarnio, Emma; Martikainen, Janne; Winn, Aaron N; Huupponen, Risto; Vahtera, Jussi; Korhonen, Maarit J

2016-11-01

Previous research shows that low socioeconomic position (SEP; especially low income) is associated with statin nonadherence. We investigated the relationship between SEP and statin adherence in a country with universal coverage using group-based trajectory modeling in addition to the proportion of days covered. Using data from Finnish healthcare registers, we identified 116 846 individuals, aged 45 to 75 years, who initiated statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We measured adherence as proportion of days covered over an 18-month period since initiation and identified different adherence patterns based on monthly adherence with group-based trajectory modeling. When adjusted for age, marital status, residential area, clinical characteristics, and copayment, low SEP was associated with statin nonadherence (proportion of days covered <80%) among men (eg, lowest versus highest income quintile: odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-1.50; basic versus higher-degree education: odds ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.24; unemployment versus employment: odds ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.25). Among women, the corresponding associations were different ( P <0.001 for sex-by-income quintile, sex-by-education level, and sex-by-labor market status interactions) and mainly nonsignificant. Results based on adherence trajectories showed that men in low SEP were likely to belong to trajectories presenting a fast decline in adherence. Low SEP was associated with overall and rapidly increasing statin nonadherence among men. Conversely, in women, associations between SEP and nonadherence were weak and inconsistent. Group-based trajectory modeling provided insight into the dynamics of statin adherence and its association with SEP. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Confidence interval estimation of the difference between two sensitivities to the early disease stage.

PubMed

Dong, Tuochuan; Kang, Le; Hutson, Alan; Xiong, Chengjie; Tian, Lili

2014-03-01

Although most of the statistical methods for diagnostic studies focus on disease processes with binary disease status, many diseases can be naturally classified into three ordinal diagnostic categories, that is normal, early stage, and fully diseased. For such diseases, the volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is the most commonly used index of diagnostic accuracy. Because the early disease stage is most likely the optimal time window for therapeutic intervention, the sensitivity to the early diseased stage has been suggested as another diagnostic measure. For the purpose of comparing the diagnostic abilities on early disease detection between two markers, it is of interest to estimate the confidence interval of the difference between sensitivities to the early diseased stage. In this paper, we present both parametric and non-parametric methods for this purpose. An extensive simulation study is carried out for a variety of settings for the purpose of evaluating and comparing the performance of the proposed methods. A real example of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is analyzed using the proposed approaches. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Simultaneous confidence sets for several effective doses.

PubMed

Tompsett, Daniel M; Biedermann, Stefanie; Liu, Wei

2018-04-03

Construction of simultaneous confidence sets for several effective doses currently relies on inverting the Scheffé type simultaneous confidence band, which is known to be conservative. We develop novel methodology to make the simultaneous coverage closer to its nominal level, for both two-sided and one-sided simultaneous confidence sets. Our approach is shown to be considerably less conservative than the current method, and is illustrated with an example on modeling the effect of smoking status and serum triglyceride level on the probability of the recurrence of a myocardial infarction. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Oswald, William E.; Stewart, Aisha E. P.; Flanders, W. Dana; Kramer, Michael R.; Endeshaw, Tekola; Zerihun, Mulat; Melaku, Birhanu; Sata, Eshetu; Gessesse, Demelash; Teferi, Tesfaye; Tadesse, Zerihun; Guadie, Birhan; King, Jonathan D.; Emerson, Paul M.; Callahan, Elizabeth K.; Moe, Christine L.; Clasen, Thomas F.

2016-01-01

This study developed and validated a model for predicting the probability that communities in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, have low sanitation coverage, based on environmental and sociodemographic conditions. Community sanitation coverage was measured between 2011 and 2014 through trachoma control program evaluation surveys. Information on environmental and sociodemographic conditions was obtained from available data sources and linked with community data using a geographic information system. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of low community sanitation coverage (< 20% versus ≥ 20%). The selected model was geographically and temporally validated. Model-predicted probabilities of low community sanitation coverage were mapped. Among 1,502 communities, 344 (22.90%) had coverage below 20%. The selected model included measures for high topsoil gravel content, an indicator for low-lying land, population density, altitude, and rainfall and had reasonable predictive discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.78). Measures of soil stability were strongly associated with low community sanitation coverage, controlling for community wealth, and other factors. A model using available environmental and sociodemographic data predicted low community sanitation coverage for areas across Amhara Region with fair discrimination. This approach could assist sanitation programs and trachoma control programs, scaling up or in hyperendemic areas, to target vulnerable areas with additional activities or alternate technologies. PMID:27430547

Confidence intervals for single-case effect size measures based on randomization test inversion.

PubMed

Michiels, Bart; Heyvaert, Mieke; Meulders, Ann; Onghena, Patrick

2017-02-01

In the current paper, we present a method to construct nonparametric confidence intervals (CIs) for single-case effect size measures in the context of various single-case designs. We use the relationship between a two-sided statistical hypothesis test at significance level α and a 100 (1 - α) % two-sided CI to construct CIs for any effect size measure θ that contain all point null hypothesis θ values that cannot be rejected by the hypothesis test at significance level α. This method of hypothesis test inversion (HTI) can be employed using a randomization test as the statistical hypothesis test in order to construct a nonparametric CI for θ. We will refer to this procedure as randomization test inversion (RTI). We illustrate RTI in a situation in which θ is the unstandardized and the standardized difference in means between two treatments in a completely randomized single-case design. Additionally, we demonstrate how RTI can be extended to other types of single-case designs. Finally, we discuss a few challenges for RTI as well as possibilities when using the method with other effect size measures, such as rank-based nonoverlap indices. Supplementary to this paper, we provide easy-to-use R code, which allows the user to construct nonparametric CIs according to the proposed method.

The effectiveness of vaccine day and educational interventions on influenza vaccine coverage among health care workers at long-term care facilities.

PubMed

Kimura, Akiko C; Nguyen, Christine N; Higa, Jeffrey I; Hurwitz, Eric L; Vugia, Duc J

2007-04-01

We examined barriers to influenza vaccination among long-term care facility (LTCF) health care workers in Southern California and developed simple, effective interventions to improve influenza vaccine coverage of these workers. In 2002, health care workers at LTCFs were surveyed regarding their knowledge and attitudes about influenza and the influenza vaccine. Results were used to develop 2 interventions, an educational campaign and Vaccine Day (a well-publicized day for free influenza vaccination of all employees at the worksite). Seventy facilities were recruited to participate in an intervention trial and randomly assigned to 4 study groups. The combination of Vaccine Day and an educational campaign was most effective in increasing vaccine coverage (53% coverage; prevalence ratio [PR]=1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.24, 1.71, compared with 27% coverage in the control group). Vaccine Day alone was also effective (46% coverage; PR= 1.41; 95% CI=1.17, 1.71). The educational campaign alone was not effective in improving coverage levels (34% coverage; PR=1.18; 95% CI=0.93, 1.50). Influenza vaccine coverage of LTCF health care workers can be improved by providing free vaccinations at the worksite with a well-publicized Vaccine Day.

Confidence intervals for differences between volumes under receiver operating characteristic surfaces (VUS) and generalized Youden indices (GYIs).

PubMed

Yin, Jingjing; Nakas, Christos T; Tian, Lili; Reiser, Benjamin

2018-03-01

This article explores both existing and new methods for the construction of confidence intervals for differences of indices of diagnostic accuracy of competing pairs of biomarkers in three-class classification problems and fills the methodological gaps for both parametric and non-parametric approaches in the receiver operating characteristic surface framework. The most widely used such indices are the volume under the receiver operating characteristic surface and the generalized Youden index. We describe implementation of all methods and offer insight regarding the appropriateness of their use through a large simulation study with different distributional and sample size scenarios. Methods are illustrated using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study, where assessment of cognitive function naturally results in a three-class classification setting.

Vaccination coverage for measles, mumps and rubella in anthroposophical schools in Gelderland, The Netherlands.

PubMed

Klomp, Judith H E; van Lier, Alies; Ruijs, Wilhelmina L M

2015-06-01

Social clustering of unvaccinated children in anthroposophical schools occurs, as inferred from various measles outbreaks that can be traced to these schools. However, accurate vaccination coverage data of anthroposophical schools are not widely available. In 2012, we performed a survey to estimate the vaccination coverage in three different grades of 11 anthroposophical schools in Gelderland, The Netherlands. We also gauged the opinion on childhood vaccination of the parents and compared these with the results of a national survey. In 2014, we were also able to obtain the registered total vaccination coverage per school from the national vaccination register to compare this with our survey data. The self-reported MMR vaccination coverage (2012) in the three grades of the schools in our study was 83% (range 45-100% per school). The registered total vaccination coverage (2014) was 78% (range 59-88% per school). The 95% confidence intervals of the two different vaccination coverages overlap for all schools. The parents in this study were less convinced about the beneficial effect of vaccinations and more worried about the possible side effects of vaccination compared with parents in general. Despite high overall vaccination coverage, the WHO goal to eliminate measles and rubella will not easily be achieved when social clustering of unvaccinated children in anthroposophical schools remains. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Coverage of childhood vaccination among children aged 12-23 months, Tamil Nadu, 2015, India.

PubMed

Murhekar, Manoj V; Kamaraj, P; Kanagasabai, K; Elavarasu, G; Rajasekar, T Daniel; Boopathi, K; Mehendale, Sanjay

2017-03-01

District-Level Household Survey-4 (DLHS-4) indicated that during 2012-2013, only 56 per cent of children aged 12-23 months in Tamil Nadu were fully vaccinated, which were lesser than those reported in earlier national surveys. We, therefore, conducted cluster surveys to estimate coverage of childhood vaccination in the State, and also to identify the factors associated with low coverage. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 15 strata [municipal corporation non-slum (n=1), municipal corporation slum (n=1), hilly (n=1), rural (n=6) and urban (n=6)]. From each stratum, 30 clusters were selected using probability proportional to the population size linear systematic sampling; seven children aged 12-23 months were selected from each cluster and their mothers/care-takers were interviewed to collect information about vaccination status of the child. A child was considered fully vaccinated if he/she received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), three doses of pentavalent, three doses of oral polio vaccine and one dose of measles vaccine, and appropriately vaccinated if all vaccine doses were given at right age and with right interval. Further, coverage of fully vaccinated children (FVC) as per vaccination cards or mothers' recall, validated coverage of FVC (V-FVC) among those having cards, and coverage of appropriately vaccinated children (AVC) were estimated using survey data analysis module with appropriate sampling weights. A total of 3150 children were surveyed, of them 2528 (80.3%) had vaccination card. The weighted coverage of FVC, V-FVC and AVC in the State was 79.9 per cent [95% confidence interval (CI): 78.2-81.5], 78.8 per cent (95% CI: 76.9-80.5) and 69.7 per cent (95% CI: 67.7-71.7), respectively. The coverage of individual vaccine ranged between 84 per cent (measles) and 99.8 per cent (BCG). About 12 per cent V-FVC were not vaccinated as per the vaccination schedule. The coverage of FVC in Tamil Nadu was high, with about 80 per cent children completing

Correlation Between Pediatrician Supply and Public Health in Japan as Evidenced by Vaccination Coverage in 2010: Secondary Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Sakai, Rie; Fink, Günther; Wang, Wei; Kawachi, Ichiro

2015-01-01

Background In industrialized countries, assessment of the causal effect of physician supply on population health has yielded mixed results. Since the scope of child vaccination is an indicator of preventive health service utilization, this study investigates the correlation between vaccination coverage and pediatrician supply as a reflection of overall pediatric health during a time of increasing pediatrician numbers in Japan. Methods Cross-sectional data were collected from publicly available sources for 2010. Dependent variables were vaccination coverage for measles and diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus (DPT) by region. The primary predictor of interest was number of pediatricians per 10 000-child population (pediatrician density) at the municipality level. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate associations of interest, conditional on a large range of demographic and infrastructure-related factors as covariates, including non-pediatric physician density, total population, per capita income, occupation, unemployment rate, prevalence of single motherhood, number of hospital beds per capita, length of roads, crime rate, accident rate, and metropolitan area code as urban/rural status. The percentage of the population who completed college-level education or higher in 2010 was included in the model as a proxy for education level. Results Pediatrician density was positively and significantly associated with vaccination coverage for both vaccine series. On average, each unit of pediatrician density increased odds by 1.012 for measles (95% confidence interval, 1.010–1.015) and 1.019 for DPT (95% confidence interval, 1.016–1.022). Conclusions Policies increasing pediatrician supply contribute to improved preventive healthcare services utilization, such as immunizations, and presumably improved child health status in Japan. PMID:25817986

Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

DOE PAGES

Verbeke, Jerome M.

2016-03-09

From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

Methods for the accurate estimation of confidence intervals on protein folding ϕ-values

PubMed Central

Ruczinski, Ingo; Sosnick, Tobin R.; Plaxco, Kevin W.

2006-01-01

ϕ-Values provide an important benchmark for the comparison of experimental protein folding studies to computer simulations and theories of the folding process. Despite the growing importance of ϕ measurements, however, formulas to quantify the precision with which ϕ is measured have seen little significant discussion. Moreover, a commonly employed method for the determination of standard errors on ϕ estimates assumes that estimates of the changes in free energy of the transition and folded states are independent. Here we demonstrate that this assumption is usually incorrect and that this typically leads to the underestimation of ϕ precision. We derive an analytical expression for the precision of ϕ estimates (assuming linear chevron behavior) that explicitly takes this dependence into account. We also describe an alternative method that implicitly corrects for the effect. By simulating experimental chevron data, we show that both methods accurately estimate ϕ confidence intervals. We also explore the effects of the commonly employed techniques of calculating ϕ from kinetics estimated at non-zero denaturant concentrations and via the assumption of parallel chevron arms. We find that these approaches can produce significantly different estimates for ϕ (again, even for truly linear chevron behavior), indicating that they are not equivalent, interchangeable measures of transition state structure. Lastly, we describe a Web-based implementation of the above algorithms for general use by the protein folding community. PMID:17008714

A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems. Ph.D. Thesis - George Washington Univ., Apr. 1985

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, P. C.

1986-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates.

Household coverage of Swaziland's national community health worker programme: a cross-sectional population-based study.

PubMed

Geldsetzer, Pascal; Vaikath, Maria; De Neve, Jan-Walter; Bossert, Thomas J; Sibandze, Sibusiso; Bärnighausen, Till

2017-08-01

To ascertain household coverage achieved by Swaziland's national community health worker (CHW) programme and differences in household coverage across clients' sociodemographic characteristics. Household survey from June to September 2015 in two of Swaziland's four administrative regions using two-stage cluster random sampling. Interviewers administered a questionnaire to all household members in 1542 households across 85 census enumeration areas. While the CHW programme aims to cover all households in the country, only 44.5% (95% confidence interval: 38.0% to 51.1%) reported that they had ever been visited by a CHW. In both uni- and multivariable regressions, coverage was negatively associated with household wealth (OR for most vs. least wealthy quartile: 0.30 [0.16 to 0.58], P < 0.001) and education (OR for >secondary schooling vs. no schooling: 0.65 [0.47 to 0.90], P = 0.009), and positively associated with residing in a rural area (OR: 2.95 [1.77 to 4.91], P < 0.001). Coverage varied widely between census enumeration areas. Swaziland's national CHW programme is falling far short of its coverage goal. To improve coverage, the programme would likely need to recruit additional CHWs and/or assign more households to each CHW. Alternatively, changing the programme's ambitious coverage goal to visiting only certain types of households would likely reduce existing arbitrary differences in coverage between households and communities. This study highlights the need to evaluate and reform large long-standing CHW programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act dependent coverage expansion: Disparities in impact among young adult oncology patients.

PubMed

Alvarez, Elysia M; Keegan, Theresa H; Johnston, Emily E; Haile, Robert; Sanders, Lee; Wise, Paul H; Saynina, Olga; Chamberlain, Lisa J

2018-01-01

Private health insurance is associated with improved outcomes in patients with cancer. However, to the authors' knowledge, little is known regarding the impact of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Expansion (ACA-DCE), which extended private insurance to young adults (to age 26 years) beginning in 2010, on the insurance status of young adults with cancer. The current study was a retrospective, population-based analysis of hospitalized young adult oncology patients (aged 22-30 years) in California during 2006 through 2014 (11,062 patients). Multivariable regression analyses examined factors associated with having private insurance. Results were presented as adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. A difference-in-difference analysis examined the influence of the ACA-DCE on insurance coverage by race/ethnicity and federal poverty level. Multivariable regression demonstrated that patients of black and Hispanic race/ethnicity were less likely to have private insurance before and after the ACA-DCE, compared with white patients. Younger age (22-25 years) was associated with having private insurance after implementation of the ACA-DCE (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35). In the difference-in-difference analysis, private insurance increased among white patients aged 22 to 25 years who were living in medium-income (2006-2009: 64.6% vs 2011-2014: 69.1%; P = .003) and high-income (80.4% vs 82%; P = .043) zip codes and among Asians aged 22 to 25 years living in high-income zip codes (73.2 vs 85.7%; P = .022). Private insurance decreased for all Hispanic patients aged 22 to 25 years between the 2 time periods. The ACA-DCE provision increased insurance coverage, but not among all patients. Private insurance increased for white and Asian patients in higher income neighborhoods, potentially widening social disparities in private insurance coverage among young adults with cancer. Cancer 2018;124:110-7. © 2017 American

Increased immunization coverage addresses the equity gap in Nepal

PubMed Central

Nelin, Viktoria; Raaijmakers, Hendrikus; Kim, Hyung Joon; Singh, Chahana; Målqvist, Mats

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective To compare immunization coverage and equity distribution of coverage between 2001 and 2014 in Nepal. Methods We used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys carried out in 2001, 2006 and 2011 together with data from the 2014 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey. We calculated the proportion, in mean percentage, of children who had received bacille Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine, three doses of polio vaccine, three doses of diphtheria–pertussis–tetanus (DPT) vaccine and measles vaccine. To measure inequities between wealth quintiles, we calculated the slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) for all surveys. Findings From 2001 to 2014, the proportion of children who received all vaccines at the age of 12 months increased from 68.8% (95% confidence interval, CI: 67.5–70.1) to 82.4% (95% CI: 80.7–84.0). While coverage of BCG, DPT and measles immunization statistically increased during the study period, the proportion of children who received the third dose of polio vaccine decreased from 93.3% (95% CI: 92.7–93.9) to 88.1% (95% CI: 86.8–89.3). The poorest wealth quintile showed the greatest improvement in immunization coverage, from 58% to 77.9%, while the wealthiest quintile only improved from 84.8% to 86.0%. The SII for children who received all vaccines improved from 0.070 (95% CI: 0.061–0.078) to 0.026 (95% CI: 0.013–0.039) and RII improved from 1.13 to 1.03. Conclusion The improvement in immunization coverage between 2001 and 2014 in Nepal can mainly be attributed to the interventions targeting the disadvantaged populations. PMID:28479621

Interval estimation and optimal design for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables

PubMed Central

Shoukri, Mohamed M; Elkum, Nasser; Walter, Stephen D

2006-01-01

Background In this paper we propose the use of the within-subject coefficient of variation as an index of a measurement's reliability. For continuous variables and based on its maximum likelihood estimation we derive a variance-stabilizing transformation and discuss confidence interval construction within the framework of a one-way random effects model. We investigate sample size requirements for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables. Methods We investigate the validity of the approximate normal confidence interval by Monte Carlo simulations. In designing a reliability study, a crucial issue is the balance between the number of subjects to be recruited and the number of repeated measurements per subject. We discuss efficiency of estimation and cost considerations for the optimal allocation of the sample resources. The approach is illustrated by an example on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). We also discuss the issue of sample size estimation for dichotomous responses with two examples. Results For the continuous variable we found that the variance stabilizing transformation improves the asymptotic coverage probabilities on the within-subject coefficient of variation for the continuous variable. The maximum like estimation and sample size estimation based on pre-specified width of confidence interval are novel contribution to the literature for the binary variable. Conclusion Using the sample size formulas, we hope to help clinical epidemiologists and practicing statisticians to efficiently design reliability studies using the within-subject coefficient of variation, whether the variable of interest is continuous or binary. PMID:16686943

Determinants and Coverage of Vaccination in Children in Western Kenya from a 2003 Cross-Sectional Survey

PubMed Central

Calhoun, Lisa M.; van Eijk, Anna M.; Lindblade, Kim A.; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Wilson, Mark L.; Winterbauer, Elizabeth; Slutsker, Laurence; Hamel, Mary J.

2014-01-01

This study assesses full and timely vaccination coverage and factors associated with full vaccination in children ages 12–23 months in Gem, Nyanza Province, Kenya in 2003. A simple random sample of 1,769 households was selected, and guardians were invited to bring children under 5 years of age to participate in a survey. Full vaccination coverage was 31.1% among 244 children. Only 2.2% received all vaccinations in the target month for each vaccination. In multivariate logistic regression, children of mothers of higher parity (odds ratio [OR] = 0.27, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.13–0.65, P ≤ 0.01), children of mothers with lower maternal education (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.13–0.97, P ≤ 0.05), or children in households with the spouse absent versus present (OR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.17–0.91, P ≤ 0.05) were less likely to be fully vaccinated. These data serve as a baseline from which changes in vaccination coverage will be measured as interventions to improve vaccination timeliness are introduced. PMID:24343886

Determinants and coverage of vaccination in children in western Kenya from a 2003 cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Calhoun, Lisa M; van Eijk, Anna M; Lindblade, Kim A; Odhiambo, Frank O; Wilson, Mark L; Winterbauer, Elizabeth; Slutsker, Laurence; Hamel, Mary J

2014-02-01

This study assesses full and timely vaccination coverage and factors associated with full vaccination in children ages 12-23 months in Gem, Nyanza Province, Kenya in 2003. A simple random sample of 1,769 households was selected, and guardians were invited to bring children under 5 years of age to participate in a survey. Full vaccination coverage was 31.1% among 244 children. Only 2.2% received all vaccinations in the target month for each vaccination. In multivariate logistic regression, children of mothers of higher parity (odds ratio [OR] = 0.27, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.13-0.65, P ≤ 0.01), children of mothers with lower maternal education (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.13-0.97, P ≤ 0.05), or children in households with the spouse absent versus present (OR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.17-0.91, P ≤ 0.05) were less likely to be fully vaccinated. These data serve as a baseline from which changes in vaccination coverage will be measured as interventions to improve vaccination timeliness are introduced.

Coverage of childhood vaccination among children aged 12-23 months, Tamil Nadu, 2015, India

PubMed Central

Murhekar, Manoj V.; Kamaraj, P.; Kanagasabai, K.; Elavarasu, G.; Rajasekar, T. Daniel; Boopathi, K.; Mehendale, Sanjay

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: District-Level Household Survey-4 (DLHS-4) indicated that during 2012-2013, only 56 per cent of children aged 12-23 months in Tamil Nadu were fully vaccinated, which were lesser than those reported in earlier national surveys. We, therefore, conducted cluster surveys to estimate coverage of childhood vaccination in the State, and also to identify the factors associated with low coverage. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 15 strata [municipal corporation non-slum (n=1), municipal corporation slum (n=1), hilly (n=1), rural (n=6) and urban (n=6)]. From each stratum, 30 clusters were selected using probability proportional to the population size linear systematic sampling; seven children aged 12-23 months were selected from each cluster and their mothers/care-takers were interviewed to collect information about vaccination status of the child. A child was considered fully vaccinated if he/she received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), three doses of pentavalent, three doses of oral polio vaccine and one dose of measles vaccine, and appropriately vaccinated if all vaccine doses were given at right age and with right interval. Further, coverage of fully vaccinated children (FVC) as per vaccination cards or mothers’ recall, validated coverage of FVC (V-FVC) among those having cards, and coverage of appropriately vaccinated children (AVC) were estimated using survey data analysis module with appropriate sampling weights. Results: A total of 3150 children were surveyed, of them 2528 (80.3%) had vaccination card. The weighted coverage of FVC, V-FVC and AVC in the State was 79.9 per cent [95% confidence interval (CI): 78.2-81.5], 78.8 per cent (95% CI: 76.9-80.5) and 69.7 per cent (95% CI: 67.7-71.7), respectively. The coverage of individual vaccine ranged between 84 per cent (measles) and 99.8 per cent (BCG). About 12 per cent V-FVC were not vaccinated as per the vaccination schedule. Interpretation & conclusions: The coverage of

Seasonal influenza vaccination coverage and its determinants among nursing homes personnel in western France.

PubMed

Elias, Christelle; Fournier, Anna; Vasiliu, Anca; Beix, Nicolas; Demillac, Rémi; Tillaut, Hélène; Guillois, Yvonnick; Eyebe, Serge; Mollo, Bastien; Crépey, Pascal

2017-07-07

Influenza-associated deaths is an important risk for the elderly in nursing homes (NHs) worldwide. Vaccination coverage among residents is high but poorly effective due to immunosenescence. Hence, vaccination of personnel is an efficient way to protect residents. Our objective was to quantify the seasonal influenza vaccination (IV) coverage among NH for elderly workers and identify its determinants in France. We conducted a cross-sectional study in March 2016 in a randomized sample of NHs of the Ille-et-Vilaine department of Brittany, in western France. A standardized questionnaire was administered to a randomized sample of NH workers for face-to-face interviews. General data about the establishment was also collected. Among the 33 NHs surveyed, IV coverage for the 2015-2016 season among permanent workers was estimated at 20% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 15.3%-26.4%) ranging from 0% to 69% depending on the establishments surveyed. Moreover, IV was associated with having previously experienced a "severe" influenza episode in the past (Prevalence Ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.01-2.17), and varied by professional categories (p < 0.004) with better coverage among administrative staff. Better knowledge about influenza prevention tools was also correlated (p < 0.001) with a higher IV coverage. Individual perceptions of vaccination benefits had a significant influence on the IV coverage (p < 0.001). Although IV coverage did not reach a high rate, our study showed that personnel considered themselves sufficiently informed about IV. IV coverage remains low in the NH worker population in Ille-et-Vilaine and also possibly in France. Strong variations of IV coverage among NHs suggest that management and working environment play an important role. To overcome vaccine "hesitancy", specific communication tools may be required to be adapted to the various NH professionals to improve influenza prevention.

State Medicaid Coverage of Medically Necessary Abortions and Severe Maternal Morbidity and Maternal Mortality.

PubMed

Jarlenski, Marian; Hutcheon, Jennifer A; Bodnar, Lisa M; Simhan, Hyagriv N

2017-05-01

To estimate the association between state Medicaid coverage of medically necessary abortion and severe maternal morbidity and in-hospital maternal mortality in the United States. We used data on pregnancy-related hospitalizations from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2000 to 2011 (weighted n=38,016,845). State-level Medicaid coverage of medically necessary abortion for each year was determined from Guttmacher Institute reports. We used multivariable logistic regression to examine the association between state Medicaid coverage of abortion and severe maternal morbidity and in-hospital maternal mortality, overall and stratified by payer. The unadjusted rate of severe maternal morbidity was lower among Medicaid-paid hospitalizations in states with Medicaid coverage of medically necessary abortion relative to those in states without such coverage (62.4 compared with 69.3 per 10,000). Among Medicaid-paid hospitalizations in states with Medicaid coverage of medically necessary abortion, there were 8.5 per 10,000 fewer cases (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.0-16.5) of severe maternal morbidity in adjusted analyses relative to those in states without such Medicaid coverage. Similarly, there were 10.3 per 10,000 fewer cases (95% CI 3.5-17.2) of severe maternal morbidity in adjusted analyses among private insurance-paid hospitalizations in states with Medicaid coverage of medically necessary abortion relative to those in states without such Medicaid coverage. The adjusted rate of in-hospital maternal mortality was not different for Medicaid-paid hospitalizations in states with and without Medicaid coverage of medically necessary abortion (9.2 and 9.0 per 100,000, respectively) nor for private insurance-paid hospitalizations (5.6 and 6.1 per 100,000, respectively). State Medicaid coverage of medically necessary abortion was associated with an average 16% decreased risk of severe maternal morbidity. An association between state Medicaid coverage of medically necessary

How to regress and predict in a Bland-Altman plot? Review and contribution based on tolerance intervals and correlated-errors-in-variables models.

PubMed

Francq, Bernard G; Govaerts, Bernadette

2016-06-30

Two main methodologies for assessing equivalence in method-comparison studies are presented separately in the literature. The first one is the well-known and widely applied Bland-Altman approach with its agreement intervals, where two methods are considered interchangeable if their differences are not clinically significant. The second approach is based on errors-in-variables regression in a classical (X,Y) plot and focuses on confidence intervals, whereby two methods are considered equivalent when providing similar measures notwithstanding the random measurement errors. This paper reconciles these two methodologies and shows their similarities and differences using both real data and simulations. A new consistent correlated-errors-in-variables regression is introduced as the errors are shown to be correlated in the Bland-Altman plot. Indeed, the coverage probabilities collapse and the biases soar when this correlation is ignored. Novel tolerance intervals are compared with agreement intervals with or without replicated data, and novel predictive intervals are introduced to predict a single measure in an (X,Y) plot or in a Bland-Atman plot with excellent coverage probabilities. We conclude that the (correlated)-errors-in-variables regressions should not be avoided in method comparison studies, although the Bland-Altman approach is usually applied to avert their complexity. We argue that tolerance or predictive intervals are better alternatives than agreement intervals, and we provide guidelines for practitioners regarding method comparison studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Twenty-four-hour in-house neonatologist coverage and long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes of preterm infants.

PubMed

Lodha, A; Brown, N; Soraisham, A; Amin, H; Tang, S; Singhal, N

2017-08-01

To compare short- and long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes at 3 years of corrected age of preterm infants cared for by 24-hour in-house staff neonatologists and those cared for by staff neonatologists during daytime only. Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected follow-up data on all nonanomalous preterm infants from 1998 to 2004 excluding year 2001 as a washout period. Infants were divided into two groups based on care provided by staff neonatologists: 24-hour in-house coverage (24-hour coverage 1998-2000) and daytime coverage (day coverage 2002-2004). Short- and long-term outcomes were compared. A total of 387 (78%) of the screened infants were included. Twenty-four-hour coverage (n=179) and day coverage (n=208) groups had a median birth weight (BW) of 875 g (range 470-1250) and 922 g (480-1530; P=0.028), respectively, and both had a median gestational age of 27 weeks. In the day coverage group, a smaller proportion of mothers had chorioamnionitis (20% vs. 30%; P=0.025), received less antibiotics (62% vs. 73%; P=0.023), and infants had fewer cases of confirmed sepsis (14% vs. 23%; P=0.022). In the day coverage group, a larger number of infants had respiratory distress syndrome (87% vs. 77%; P=0.011) and required prolonged mechanical ventilation (median 31 vs. 21 days; P=0.002). The incidence of major neurodevelopmental impairment was not significantly different between the two groups (odds ratio 0.76; 95% confidence interval 0.34-1.65). Duration of mechanical ventilation was reduced with 24-hour in-house coverage by staff neonatologists. However, 24-hour coverage was not associated with any difference in neurodevelopmental (ND) outcomes at 3-year corrected age.

Estimation and confidence intervals for empirical mixing distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1995-01-01

Questions regarding collections of parameter estimates can frequently be expressed in terms of an empirical mixing distribution (EMD). This report discusses empirical Bayes estimation of an EMD, with emphasis on the construction of interval estimates. Estimation of the EMD is accomplished by substitution of estimates of prior parameters in the posterior mean of the EMD. This procedure is examined in a parametric model (the normal-normal mixture) and in a semi-parametric model. In both cases, the empirical Bayes bootstrap of Laird and Louis (1987, Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 739-757) is used to assess the variability of the estimated EMD arising from the estimation of prior parameters. The proposed methods are applied to a meta-analysis of population trend estimates for groups of birds.

Performance analysis of complex repairable industrial systems using PSO and fuzzy confidence interval based methodology.

PubMed

Garg, Harish

2013-03-01

The main objective of the present paper is to propose a methodology for analyzing the behavior of the complex repairable industrial systems. In real-life situations, it is difficult to find the most optimal design policies for MTBF (mean time between failures), MTTR (mean time to repair) and related costs by utilizing available resources and uncertain data. For this, the availability-cost optimization model has been constructed for determining the optimal design parameters for improving the system design efficiency. The uncertainties in the data related to each component of the system are estimated with the help of fuzzy and statistical methodology in the form of the triangular fuzzy numbers. Using these data, the various reliability parameters, which affects the system performance, are obtained in the form of the fuzzy membership function by the proposed confidence interval based fuzzy Lambda-Tau (CIBFLT) methodology. The computed results by CIBFLT are compared with the existing fuzzy Lambda-Tau methodology. Sensitivity analysis on the system MTBF has also been addressed. The methodology has been illustrated through a case study of washing unit, the main part of the paper industry. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Standard errors and confidence intervals for variable importance in random forest regression, classification, and survival.

PubMed

Ishwaran, Hemant; Lu, Min

2018-06-04

Random forests are a popular nonparametric tree ensemble procedure with broad applications to data analysis. While its widespread popularity stems from its prediction performance, an equally important feature is that it provides a fully nonparametric measure of variable importance (VIMP). A current limitation of VIMP, however, is that no systematic method exists for estimating its variance. As a solution, we propose a subsampling approach that can be used to estimate the variance of VIMP and for constructing confidence intervals. The method is general enough that it can be applied to many useful settings, including regression, classification, and survival problems. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the subsampling estimator and in particular find that the delete-d jackknife variance estimator, a close cousin, is especially effective under low subsampling rates due to its bias correction properties. These 2 estimators are highly competitive when compared with the .164 bootstrap estimator, a modified bootstrap procedure designed to deal with ties in out-of-sample data. Most importantly, subsampling is computationally fast, thus making it especially attractive for big data settings. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimation of measles vaccination coverage using the Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) method--Tamilnadu, India, 2002-2003.

PubMed

Sivasankaran, Saravanan; Manickam, P; Ramakrishnan, R; Hutin, Y; Gupte, M D

2006-04-28

As part of the global strategic plan to reduce the number of measles deaths in India, the state of Tamilnadu aims at > or =95% measles vaccination coverage. A study was conducted to measure overall coverage levels for the Poondi Primary Health Center (PPHC), a rural health-care facility in Tiruvallur District, and to determine whether any of the PPHC's six health subcenters had coverage levels <95%. The Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) method was used to identify health subcenters in the PPHC area with measles vaccination coverage levels <95% among children aged 12-23 months. Lemeshow and Taber sampling plans were used to determine that the measles vaccination status of 73 children aged 12--23 months had to be assessed in each health subcenter coverage area, with a 5% level of significance and a decision value of two. If more than two children were unvaccinated, the null hypothesis (i.e., that coverage in the health subcenter was low [<95%]) was not rejected. If the number of unvaccinated children was two or fewer, the null hypothesis was rejected, and coverage in the subcenter was considered to be good (i.e., > or =95%). All data were pooled in a stratified sample to estimate overall total coverage in the PPHC area. For two (33.3%) of the six health subcenters, more than two children were unvaccinated (i.e., coverage was <95%). Combining results from all six health subcenters generated a coverage estimate of 97.7% (95% confidence interval = 95.7-98.8) on the basis of 428 (97.7%) of 438 children identified as vaccinated. LQAS techniques proved useful in identifying small health areas with lower vaccination coverage, which helps to target interventions. Monthly review of vaccination coverage by subcenter and village is recommended to identify pockets of unvaccinated children and to maintain uniform high coverage in the PPHC area.

Comparison of Mass Azithromycin Coverage Targets of Children in Niger: A Cluster-Randomized Trachoma Trial.

PubMed

Oldenburg, Catherine E; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Beido; Cotter, Sun Y; Stoller, Nicole E; West, Sheila K; Bailey, Robin L; Porco, Travis C; Gaynor, Bruce D; Keenan, Jeremy D; Lietman, Thomas M

2018-02-01

Repeated oral azithromycin distribution targeted only to children has proven effective in reducing the ocular Chlamydia that causes trachoma. Here, we assess whether an enhanced coverage target of at least 90% of children is superior to the World Health Organization recommendation of at least 80%. Twenty-four trachoma-endemic communities in Matamèye, Niger, were randomized to a single day of azithromycin distribution aiming for at least 80% coverage or up to 4 days of treatment and > 90% coverage of children under age 12. All distributions were biannual. Children < 5 years of age and adults > 15 years were monitored for ocular Chlamydia infection by polymerase chain reaction every 6 months for 36 months in children and at baseline and 36 months in adults. Ocular Chlamydia prevalence in children decreased from 24.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.9-33.8%) to 4.4% (95% CI 0.6-8.2%, P < 0.001) at 36 months in the standard coverage arm and from 15.6% (95% CI 10.0-21.2%) to 3.3% (95% CI 1.0-5.5%; P < 0.001) in the enhanced coverage arm. Enhanced coverage reduced ocular Chlamydia prevalence in children more quickly over time compared with standard ( P = 0.04). There was no difference between arms at 36 months in children (2.4% lower with enhanced coverage, 95% CI 7.7-12.5%; P = 0.60). No infection was detected in adults at 36 months. Increasing antibiotic coverage among children from 80% to 90% may yield only short term improvements for trachoma control programs. Targeting treatment to children alone may be sufficient for trachoma control in this setting.

Confidence Intervals for Laboratory Sonic Boom Annoyance Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rathsam, Jonathan; Christian, Andrew

2016-01-01

Commercial supersonic flight is currently forbidden over land because sonic booms have historically caused unacceptable annoyance levels in overflown communities. NASA is providing data and expertise to noise regulators as they consider relaxing the ban for future quiet supersonic aircraft. One deliverable NASA will provide is a predictive model for indoor annoyance to aid in setting an acceptable quiet sonic boom threshold. A laboratory study was conducted to determine how indoor vibrations caused by sonic booms affect annoyance judgments. The test method required finding the point of subjective equality (PSE) between sonic boom signals that cause vibrations and signals not causing vibrations played at various amplitudes. This presentation focuses on a few statistical techniques for estimating the interval around the PSE. The techniques examined are the Delta Method, Parametric and Nonparametric Bootstrapping, and Bayesian Posterior Estimation.

Acellular dermal matrix and subepithelial connective tissue grafts for root coverage: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Gallagher, Sarah Ivy; Matthews, Debora Candace

2017-01-01

Background: The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate whether patients with gingival recession would benefit from an acellular dermal matrix graft (ADMG) in ways that are comparable to the gold standard of the subepithelial connective tissue graft (SCTG). Materials and Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis comparing ADMG to SCTG for the treatment of Miller Class I and II recession defects was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, Excerpta Medica Database, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were searched up to March 2016 for controlled trials with minimum 6 months duration. The primary outcome was root coverage; secondary outcomes included attachment level change, keratinized tissue (KT) change, and patient-based outcomes. Both authors independently assessed the quality of each included trial and extracted the relevant data. Results: From 158 potential titles, 17 controlled trials were included in the meta-analysis. There were no differences between ADMG and SCTG for mean root coverage, percent root coverage, and clinical attachment level gain. ADMG was statistically better than SCTG for gain in width of KT (−0.43 mm; 95% confidence interval: −0.72, −0.15). Only one study compared patient-based outcomes. Conclusion: This review found that an ADMG would be a suitable root coverage substitute for an SCTG when avoidance of the second surgical site is preferred. PMID:29551861

Weighted regression analysis and interval estimators

Treesearch

Donald W. Seegrist

1974-01-01

A method for deriving the weighted least squares estimators for the parameters of a multiple regression model. Confidence intervals for expected values, and prediction intervals for the means of future samples are given.

A longitudinal study of medicaid coverage for tobacco dependence treatments in Massachusetts and associated decreases in hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Land, Thomas; Rigotti, Nancy A; Levy, Douglas E; Paskowsky, Mark; Warner, Donna; Kwass, Jo-Ann; Wetherell, Leann; Keithly, Lois

2010-12-07

Insurance coverage of tobacco cessation medications increases their use and reduces smoking prevalence in a population. However, uncertainty about the impact of this coverage on health care utilization and costs is a barrier to the broader adoption of this policy, especially by publicly funded state Medicaid insurance programs. Whether a publicly funded tobacco cessation benefit leads to decreased medical claims for tobacco-related diseases has not been studied. We examined the experience of Massachusetts, whose Medicaid program adopted comprehensive coverage of tobacco cessation medications in July 2006. Over 75,000 Medicaid subscribers used the benefit in the first 2.5 years. On the basis of earlier secondary survey work, it was estimated that smoking prevalence declined among subscribers by 10% during this period. Using claims data, we compared the probability of hospitalization prior to use of the tobacco cessation pharmacotherapy benefit with the probability of hospitalization after benefit use among Massachusetts Medicaid beneficiaries, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, seasonality, influenza cases, and the implementation of the statewide smoke-free air law using generalized estimating equations. Statistically significant annualized declines of 46% (95% confidence interval 2%-70%) and 49% (95% confidence interval 6%-72%) were observed in hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction and other acute coronary heart disease diagnoses, respectively. There were no significant decreases in hospitalizations rates for respiratory diagnoses or seven other diagnostic groups evaluated. Among Massachusetts Medicaid subscribers, use of a comprehensive tobacco cessation pharmacotherapy benefit was associated with a significant decrease in claims for hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction and acute coronary heart disease, but no significant change in hospital claims for other diagnoses. For low-income smokers, removing the barriers to the use of

A Longitudinal Study of Medicaid Coverage for Tobacco Dependence Treatments in Massachusetts and Associated Decreases in Hospitalizations for Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

Land, Thomas; Rigotti, Nancy A.; Levy, Douglas E.; Paskowsky, Mark; Warner, Donna; Kwass, Jo-Ann; Wetherell, LeAnn; Keithly, Lois

2010-01-01

Background Insurance coverage of tobacco cessation medications increases their use and reduces smoking prevalence in a population. However, uncertainty about the impact of this coverage on health care utilization and costs is a barrier to the broader adoption of this policy, especially by publicly funded state Medicaid insurance programs. Whether a publicly funded tobacco cessation benefit leads to decreased medical claims for tobacco-related diseases has not been studied. We examined the experience of Massachusetts, whose Medicaid program adopted comprehensive coverage of tobacco cessation medications in July 2006. Over 75,000 Medicaid subscribers used the benefit in the first 2.5 years. On the basis of earlier secondary survey work, it was estimated that smoking prevalence declined among subscribers by 10% during this period. Methods and Findings Using claims data, we compared the probability of hospitalization prior to use of the tobacco cessation pharmacotherapy benefit with the probability of hospitalization after benefit use among Massachusetts Medicaid beneficiaries, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, seasonality, influenza cases, and the implementation of the statewide smoke-free air law using generalized estimating equations. Statistically significant annualized declines of 46% (95% confidence interval 2%–70%) and 49% (95% confidence interval 6%–72%) were observed in hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction and other acute coronary heart disease diagnoses, respectively. There were no significant decreases in hospitalizations rates for respiratory diagnoses or seven other diagnostic groups evaluated. Conclusions Among Massachusetts Medicaid subscribers, use of a comprehensive tobacco cessation pharmacotherapy benefit was associated with a significant decrease in claims for hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction and acute coronary heart disease, but no significant change in hospital claims for other diagnoses. For low

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

PubMed

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

Tetanus toxoid coverage as an indicator of serological protection against neonatal tetanus.

PubMed Central

Deming, Michael S.; Roungou, Jean-Baptiste; Kristiansen, Max; Heron, Iver; Yango, Alphonse; Guenengafo, Alexis; Ndamobissi, Robert

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: A Multiple-Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) was conducted at mid-decade in more than 60 developing countries to measure progress towards the year 2000 World Summit for Children goals. These goals included the protection of at least 90% of children against neonatal tetanus through the immunization of their mothers, as measured by tetanus toxoid (TT) coverage. In the Central African Republic (CAR), serological testing was added to the MICS to understand better the relationship between survey estimates of TT coverage and the prevalence of serological protection. METHODS: In the CAR MICS, mothers of children younger than one year of age gave verbal histories of the TT vaccinations they had received, using the MICS TT questionnaire. A subsample of mothers was tested for tetanus antitoxin, using a double-antigen enzyme-linked immunoadsorbent assay (ELISA). Seropositivity was defined as a titre of > or =0.01 IU/ml, and TT coverage was defined as the proportion of mothers protected at delivery, according to their history of TT vaccinations. FINDINGS: Among the 222 mothers in the subsample, weighted TT coverage was 74.4% (95% Confidence Interval (CI); 67.0% - 81.7%) and tetanus antitoxin seroprevalence was 88.7% (95% CI; 83.2% - 94.2%). The weighted median antitoxin titre was 0.35 IU/ml. CONCLUSIONS: Tetanus toxoid coverage in the CAR was lower than the prevalence of serological protection against neonatal tetanus. If this relationship holds for other countries, TT coverage estimates from the MICS may underestimate the extent to which the year 2000 goal for protecting children against neonatal tetanus was reached. We also showed that a high level of serological protection had been achieved in a country facing major public health challenges and resource constraints. PMID:12378286

Repeat retail clinic visits: impact of insurance coverage and age of patient.

PubMed

Angstman, Kurt B; Bernard, Matthew E; Rohrer, James E; Garrison, Gregory M; Maclaughlin, Kathy L

2012-12-01

As retail clinics provide a less costly alternative for health care, it would be reasonable to expect an increase in multiple (repeat) retail visits by those patients who may have expenses for receiving primary care. If costs were not a significant factor, then repeat visits should not be significantly different between these patients and those with coverage for primary care visits. The hypothesis for this study was that patients with the potential for out-of-pocket expenses would have a higher frequency of repeat retail clinic visits within 180 days compared to those with primary care coverage. A retrospective chart review was conducted of 5703 patients utilizing a retail clinic in Rochester, Minnesota from January 1, 2009 through June 30, 2009. The first visit to the retail clinic was considered the index visit and the chart was reviewed for repeat retail clinic visits within the next 180 days. Using a multiple logistic regression model, the odds of a pediatric patient (N=2344) having a repeat retail visit within 180 days of the index visit were not significantly impacted by insurance coverage (P=0.4209). Of the 3359 adult patients, those with unknown coverage had a 25.6% higher odds ratio of repeat retail clinic visits than those with insurance coverage (odds ratio 1.2557, confidence interval 1.0421-1.5131). This study suggested that when cost is an issue, the adult patient may favor retail clinics for episodic, low-acuity health care. In contrast, the pediatric population did not, suggesting that other factors, such as convenience, may play more of a role in the choice of episodic health care for this age group.

Rapid assessment of cataract surgical coverage in rural Zululand.

PubMed

Rotchford, A P; Johnson, G J

2000-10-01

Cataract surgical coverage (CSC) is a useful indicator of the degree of success of a cataract intervention programme. However, because previously described methods are time-consuming and labour-intensive, they are rarely performed. This study describes a simple and inexpensive assessment of CSC based on screening of pensioners at pension delivery sites in a rural district. Random cluster-based cross-sectional survey. State pension distribution sites in Hlabisa, a rural district in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. 562 old-age pensioners. Subjects found to be blind (visual acuity < 3/60) and those reporting a history of eye surgery were examined using a torch and direct ophthalmoscope by an ophthalmologist. Cases of blindness due to operable cataract and post-cataract surgical subjects were identified. CSC was found to be 38.5% (95% confidence interval 29.1-47.9%). Blindness prevalence was 10.3%, with 69.0% due to cataract.

Healthcare Coverage for HIV Provider Visits Before and After Implementation of the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Berry, Stephen A.; Fleishman, John A.; Yehia, Baligh R.; Cheever, Laura W.; Hauck, Heather; Korthuis, P. Todd; Mathews, W. Christopher; Keruly, Jeanne; Nijhawan, Ank E.; Agwu, Allison L.; Somboonwit, Charurut; Moore, Richard D.; Gebo, Kelly A.

2016-01-01

Background. Before implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2014, 100 000 persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH) lacked healthcare coverage and relied on a safety net of Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program support, local charities, or uncompensated care (RWHAP/Uncomp) to cover visits to HIV providers. We compared HIV provider coverage before (2011–2013) versus after (first half of 2014) ACA implementation among a total of 28 374 PLWH followed up in 4 sites in Medicaid expansion states (California, Oregon, and Maryland), 4 in a state (New York) that expanded Medicaid in 2001, and 2 in nonexpansion states (Texas and Florida). Methods. Multivariate multinomial logistic models were used to assess changes in RWHAP/Uncomp, Medicaid, and private insurance coverage, using Medicare as a referent. Results. In expansion state sites, RWHAP/Uncomp coverage decreased (unadjusted, 28% before and 13% after ACA; adjusted relative risk ratio [ARRR], 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], .40–.48). Medicaid coverage increased (23% and 38%; ARRR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.70–1.94), and private coverage was unchanged (21% and 19%; 0.96; .89–1.03). In New York sites, both RWHAP/Uncomp (20% and 19%) and Medicaid (50% and 50%) coverage were unchanged, while private coverage decreased (13% and 12%; ARRR, 0.86; 95% CI, .80–.92). In nonexpansion state sites, RWHAP/Uncomp (57% and 52%) and Medicaid (18% and 18%) coverage were unchanged, while private coverage increased (4% and 7%; ARRR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.62–1.99). Conclusions. In expansion state sites, half of PLWH relying on RWHAP/Uncomp coverage shifted to Medicaid, while in New York and nonexpansion state sites, reliance on RWHAP/Uncomp remained constant. In the first half of 2014, the ACA did not eliminate the need for RWHAP safety net provider visit coverage. PMID:27143660

Influenza vaccine coverage, influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia (Spain).

PubMed

Muñoz, M Pilar; Soldevila, Núria; Martínez, Anna; Carmona, Glòria; Batalla, Joan; Acosta, Lesly M; Domínguez, Angela

2011-07-12

The objective of this work was to study the behaviour of influenza with respect to morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia, and their association with influenza vaccination coverage. The study was carried out over 13 influenza seasons, from epidemiological week 40 of 1994 to week 20 of 2007, and included confirmed cases of influenza and all-cause mortality. Two generalized linear models were fitted: influenza-associated morbidity was modelled by Poisson regression and all-cause mortality by negative binomial regression. The seasonal component was modelled with the periodic function formed by the sum of the sinus and cosines. Expected influenza mortality during periods of influenza virus circulation was estimated by Poisson regression and its confidence intervals using the Bootstrap approach. Vaccination coverage was associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity (p<0.001), but not with a reduction in all-cause mortality (p=0.149). In the case of influenza-associated morbidity, an increase of 5% in vaccination coverage represented a reduction of 3% in the incidence rate of influenza. There was a positive association between influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality. Excess mortality attributable to influenza epidemics was estimated as 34.4 (95% CI: 28.4-40.8) weekly deaths. In conclusion, all-cause mortality is a good indicator of influenza surveillance and vaccination coverage is associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity but not with all-cause mortality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in drug utilization during a gap in insurance coverage: an examination of the medicare Part D coverage gap.

PubMed

Polinski, Jennifer M; Shrank, William H; Huskamp, Haiden A; Glynn, Robert J; Liberman, Joshua N; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2011-08-01

Nations are struggling to expand access to essential medications while curbing rising health and drug spending. While the US government's Medicare Part D drug insurance benefit expanded elderly citizens' access to drugs, it also includes a controversial period called the "coverage gap" during which beneficiaries are fully responsible for drug costs. We examined the impact of entering the coverage gap on drug discontinuation, switching to another drug for the same indication, and drug adherence. While increased discontinuation of and adherence to essential medications is a regrettable response, increased switching to less expensive but therapeutically interchangeable medications is a positive response to minimize costs. We followed 663,850 Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in Part D or retiree drug plans with prescription and health claims in 2006 and/or 2007 to determine who reached the gap spending threshold, n = 217,131 (33%). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, we compared drug discontinuation and switching rates in selected drug classes after reaching the threshold between all 1,993 who had no financial assistance during the coverage gap (exposed) versus 9,965 multivariate propensity score-matched comparators with financial assistance (unexposed). Multivariate logistic regressions compared drug adherence (≤ 80% versus >80% of days covered). Beneficiaries reached the gap spending threshold on average 222 d ±79. At the drug level, exposed beneficiaries were twice as likely to discontinue (hazard ratio [HR]  = 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64-2.43) but less likely to switch a drug (HR  = 0.60, 0.46-0.78) after reaching the threshold. Gap-exposed beneficiaries were slightly more likely to have reduced adherence (OR  = 1.07, 0.98-1.18). A lack of financial assistance after reaching the gap spending threshold was associated with a doubling in discontinuing essential medications but not switching drugs in 2006 and 2007. Blunt cost

Medicaid Coverage of Methadone Maintenance and the Use of Opioid Agonist Therapy Among Pregnant Women in Specialty Treatment.

PubMed

Bachhuber, Marcus A; Mehta, Pooja K; Faherty, Laura J; Saloner, Brendan

2017-12-01

Opioid agonist therapy (OAT) is the standard of care for pregnant women with opioid use disorder (OUD). Medicaid coverage policies may strongly influence OAT use in this group. To examine the association between Medicaid coverage of methadone maintenance and planned use of OAT in the publicly funded treatment system. Retrospective cross-sectional analysis of treatment admissions in 30 states extracted from the Treatment Episode Data Set (2013 and 2014). Medicaid-insured pregnant women with OUD (n=3354 treatment admissions). The main outcome measure was planned use of OAT on admission. The main exposure was state Medicaid coverage of methadone maintenance. Using multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for sociodemographic, substance use, and treatment characteristics, we compared the probability of planned OAT use in states with Medicaid coverage of methadone maintenance versus states without coverage. A total of 71% of pregnant women admitted to OUD treatment were 18-29 years old, 85% were white non-Hispanic, and 56% used heroin. Overall, 74% of admissions occurred in the 18 states with Medicaid coverage of methadone maintenance and 53% of admissions involved planned use of OAT. Compared with states without Medicaid coverage of methadone maintenance, admissions in states with coverage were significantly more likely to involve planned OAT use (adjusted difference: 32.9 percentage points, 95% confidence interval, 19.2-46.7). Including methadone maintenance in the Medicaid benefit is essential to increasing OAT among pregnant women with OUD and should be considered a key policy strategy to enhance outcomes for mothers and newborns.

Association between the Part D coverage gap and adverse health outcomes.

PubMed

Polinski, Jennifer M; Shrank, William H; Glynn, Robert J; Huskamp, Haiden A; Christopher Roebuck, M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2012-08-01

To determine whether Part D coverage gap entry is associated with risk of death or hospitalization for cardiovascular outcomes. Prospective cohort study. Beneficiaries entered the study upon reaching the coverage gap spending threshold and were observed until an outcome reaching the threshold for catastrophic coverage occurred or year's end. Nine thousand four hundred thirty-six exposed individuals (those who were responsible for drug costs in the gap) were compared with 9,436 unexposed individuals (those who received financial assistance) based on propensity score (PS) or high-dimensional propensity score (hdPS). Medicare Part D drug insurance. Three hundred three thousand nine hundred seventy-eight Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older in 2006 and 2007 with linked prescription and medical claims who enrolled in stand-alone Part D or retiree drug plans and reached the gap spending threshold. Rates of death and hospitalization for any of five cardiovascular outcomes, including acute coronary syndrome with revascularization (ACS), after reaching the coverage gap spending threshold were compared using Cox proportional hazards models. In PS-matched analyses, exposed beneficiaries had higher, albeit not significantly so, hazard of death (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.98-1.59) and ACS (HR = 1.16, 95% CI = 0.83-1.62) than unexposed beneficiaries. hdPS-matched analyses minimized residual confounding and confirmed results (death: HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.78-1.24; ACS: HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.81-1.41). Exposed beneficiaries were no more or less likely to experience other outcomes than were those who were unexposed. During the short-term coverage gap period, having no financial assistance to pay for drugs was not associated with greater risk of death or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes, although long-term health consequences remain unclear. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

Individual and socioeconomic factors associated with childhood immunization coverage in Nigeria

PubMed Central

Oleribe, Obinna; Kumar, Vibha; Awosika-Olumo, Adebowale; Taylor-Robinson, Simon David

2017-01-01

Introduction Immunization is the world’s most successful and cost-effective public health intervention as it prevents over 2 million deaths annually. However, over 2 million deaths still occur yearly from Vaccine preventable diseases, the majority of which occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria is a major contributor of global childhood deaths from VPDs. Till date, Nigeria still has wild polio virus in circulation. The objective of this study was to identify the individual and socioeconomic factors associated with immunization coverage in Nigeria through a secondary dataset analysis of Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), 2013. Methods A quantitative analysis of the 2013 NDHS dataset was performed. Ethical approvals were obtained from Walden University IRB and the National Health Research Ethics Committee of Nigeria. The dataset was downloaded, validated for completeness and analyzed using univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistics. Results Of 27,571 children aged 0 to 59 months, 22.1% had full vaccination, and 29% never received any vaccination. Immunization coverage was significantly associated with childbirth order, delivery place, child number, and presence or absence of a child health card. Maternal age, geographical location, education, religion, literacy, wealth index, marital status, and occupation were significantly associated with immunization coverage. Paternal education, occupation, and age were also significantly associated with coverage. Respondent's age, educational attainment and wealth index remained significantly related to immunization coverage at 95% confidence interval in multivariate analysis. Conclusion The study highlights child, parental and socioeconomic barriers to successful immunization programs in Nigeria. These findings need urgent attention, given the re-emergence of wild poliovirus in Nigeria. An effective, efficient, sustainable, accessible, and acceptable immunization program for children should be designed

Individual and socioeconomic factors associated with childhood immunization coverage in Nigeria.

PubMed

Oleribe, Obinna; Kumar, Vibha; Awosika-Olumo, Adebowale; Taylor-Robinson, Simon David

2017-01-01

Immunization is the world's most successful and cost-effective public health intervention as it prevents over 2 million deaths annually. However, over 2 million deaths still occur yearly from Vaccine preventable diseases, the majority of which occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria is a major contributor of global childhood deaths from VPDs. Till date, Nigeria still has wild polio virus in circulation. The objective of this study was to identify the individual and socioeconomic factors associated with immunization coverage in Nigeria through a secondary dataset analysis of Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), 2013. A quantitative analysis of the 2013 NDHS dataset was performed. Ethical approvals were obtained from Walden University IRB and the National Health Research Ethics Committee of Nigeria. The dataset was downloaded, validated for completeness and analyzed using univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistics. Of 27,571 children aged 0 to 59 months, 22.1% had full vaccination, and 29% never received any vaccination. Immunization coverage was significantly associated with childbirth order, delivery place, child number, and presence or absence of a child health card. Maternal age, geographical location, education, religion, literacy, wealth index, marital status, and occupation were significantly associated with immunization coverage. Paternal education, occupation, and age were also significantly associated with coverage. Respondent's age, educational attainment and wealth index remained significantly related to immunization coverage at 95% confidence interval in multivariate analysis. The study highlights child, parental and socioeconomic barriers to successful immunization programs in Nigeria. These findings need urgent attention, given the re-emergence of wild poliovirus in Nigeria. An effective, efficient, sustainable, accessible, and acceptable immunization program for children should be designed, developed and undertaken in Nigeria with

The Logic of Summative Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gugiu, P. Cristian

2007-01-01

The constraints of conducting evaluations in real-world settings often necessitate the implementation of less than ideal designs. Unfortunately, the standard method for estimating the precision of a result (i.e., confidence intervals [CI]) cannot be used for evaluative conclusions that are derived from multiple indicators, measures, and data…

Razonamiento de Estudiantes Universitarios sobre Variabilidad e Intervalos de Confianza en un Contexto Inferencial Informal = University Students' Reasoning on Variability and Confidence Intervals in Inferential Informal Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inzunsa Cazares, Santiago

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a qualitative research with a group of 15 university students of social sciences on informal inferential reasoning developed in a computer environment on concepts involved in the confidence intervals. The results indicate that students developed a correct reasoning about sampling variability and visualized…

Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

Sociodemographic predictors of variation in coverage of the national shingles vaccination programme in England, 2014/15.

PubMed

Ward, Charlotte; Byrne, Lisa; White, Joanne M; Amirthalingam, Gayatri; Tiley, Karen; Edelstein, Michael

2017-04-25

In September 2013, England introduced a shingles vaccination programme to reduce incidence and severity of shingles in the elderly. This study aims to assess variation in vaccine coverage with regards to selected sociodemographic factors to inform activities for improving equity of the programme. Eligible 70year-olds were identified from a national vaccine coverage dataset in 2014/15 that includes 95% of GPs in England. NHS England Local Team (LT) and index of multiple deprivation (IMD) scores were assigned to patients based on GP-postcode. Vaccine coverage (%) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were calculated overall and by LT, ethnicity and IMD, using binomial regression. Of 502,058 eligible adults, 178,808 (35.6%) had ethnicity recorded. Crude vaccine coverage was 59.5% (95%CI: 59.3-59.7). Coverage was lowest in London (49.6% coverage, 95%CI: 49.0-50.2), and compared to this coverage was significantly higher in all other LTs (+6.3 to +10.4, p<0.001) after adjusting for ethnicity and IMD. Coverage decreased with increasing deprivation and was 8.2% lower in the most deprived (95%CI: 7.3-9.1) compared with the least deprived IMD quintile (64.1% coverage, 95%CI: 63.6-64.6), after adjustment for ethnicity and LT. Compared with White-British (60.7% coverage, 95%CI: 60.5-61.0), other ethnic groups had between 4.0% (Indian) and 21.8% (Mixed: White and Black African) lower coverage. After adjusting for IMD and LT, significantly lower coverage by ethnicity persisted in all groups, except in Mixed: Other, Indian and Bangladeshi compared with White-British. After taking geography and deprivation into account, shingles vaccine coverage varied by ethnicity. White-British, Indian and Bangladeshi groups had highest coverage; Mixed: White and Black African, and Black-other ethnicities had the lowest. Patients' ethnicity and IMD are predictors of coverage which contribute to, but do not wholly account for, geographical variation coverage. Interventions to address service

Human papillomavirus vaccine delivery strategies that achieved high coverage in low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

LaMontagne, D Scott; Barge, Sandhya; Le, Nga Thi; Mugisha, Emmanuel; Penny, Mary E; Gandhi, Sanjay; Janmohamed, Amynah; Kumakech, Edward; Mosqueira, N Rocio; Nguyen, Nghi Quy; Paul, Proma; Tang, Yuxiao; Minh, Tran Hung; Uttekar, Bella Patel; Jumaan, Aisha O

2011-11-01

To assess human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage after demonstration projects conducted in India, Peru, Uganda and Viet Nam by PATH and national governments and to explore the reasons for vaccine acceptance or refusal. Vaccines were delivered through schools or health centres or in combination with other health interventions, and either monthly or through campaigns at fixed time points. Using a two-stage cluster sample design, the authors selected households in demonstration project areas and interviewed over 7000 parents or guardians of adolescent girls to assess coverage and acceptability. They defined full vaccination as the receipt of all three vaccine doses and used an open-ended question to explore acceptability. Vaccination coverage in school-based programmes was 82.6% (95% confidence interval, CI: 79.3-85.6) in Peru, 88.9% (95% CI: 84.7-92.4) in 2009 in Uganda and 96.1% (95% CI: 93.0-97.8) in 2009 in Viet Nam. In India, a campaign approach achieved 77.2% (95% CI: 72.4-81.6) to 87.8% (95% CI: 84.3-91.3) coverage, whereas monthly delivery achieved 68.4% (95% CI: 63.4-73.4) to 83.3% (95% CI: 79.3-87.3) coverage. More than two thirds of respondents gave as reasons for accepting the HPV vaccine that: (i) it protects against cervical cancer; (ii) it prevents disease, or (iii) vaccines are good. Refusal was more often driven by programmatic considerations (e.g. school absenteeism) than by opposition to the vaccine. High coverage with HPV vaccine among young adolescent girls was achieved through various delivery strategies in the developing countries studied. Reinforcing positive motivators for vaccine acceptance is likely to facilitate uptake.

R package to estimate intracluster correlation coefficient with confidence interval for binary data.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Hrishikesh; Hossain, Akhtar

2018-03-01

The Intracluster Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is a major parameter of interest in cluster randomized trials that measures the degree to which responses within the same cluster are correlated. There are several types of ICC estimators and its confidence intervals (CI) suggested in the literature for binary data. Studies have compared relative weaknesses and advantages of ICC estimators as well as its CI for binary data and suggested situations where one is advantageous in practical research. The commonly used statistical computing systems currently facilitate estimation of only a very few variants of ICC and its CI. To address the limitations of current statistical packages, we developed an R package, ICCbin, to facilitate estimating ICC and its CI for binary responses using different methods. The ICCbin package is designed to provide estimates of ICC in 16 different ways including analysis of variance methods, moments based estimation, direct probabilistic methods, correlation based estimation, and resampling method. CI of ICC is estimated using 5 different methods. It also generates cluster binary data using exchangeable correlation structure. ICCbin package provides two functions for users. The function rcbin() generates cluster binary data and the function iccbin() estimates ICC and it's CI. The users can choose appropriate ICC and its CI estimate from the wide selection of estimates from the outputs. The R package ICCbin presents very flexible and easy to use ways to generate cluster binary data and to estimate ICC and it's CI for binary response using different methods. The package ICCbin is freely available for use with R from the CRAN repository (https://cran.r-project.org/package=ICCbin). We believe that this package can be a very useful tool for researchers to design cluster randomized trials with binary outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contraception Insurance Coverage and Receipt of Long-Acting Reversible Contraception or Depot Medroxyprogesterone Acetate on the Day of Abortion.

PubMed

Krashin, Jamie W; Stuart, Gretchen S; Garrett, Joanne; Spector, Hannah; Bryant, Amy G; Charm, Samantha; Morse, Jessica E

2017-07-01

To evaluate whether contraceptive insurance coverage for women who present for an abortion is associated with obtaining long-acting reversible contraception or depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) on the day the abortion is completed. We conducted a prospective cohort study of women presenting for medical or surgical abortion at a single health center in North Carolina. Eligible women were 18 years or older and fluent in English or Spanish. Data were from participant questionnaires, medical charts, and financial records. Our main exposure was whether the woman had insurance coverage for contraception at clinic intake. Our primary outcome was receiving DMPA, an intrauterine device, or a contraceptive subdermal implant on the same day of their surgical abortion or at the visit that determined their medication abortion was complete. We used univariable, bivariable, and multivariable analysis to report our findings. Five hundred seventy-five women enrolled in our cohort between September 2015 and April 2016. One hundred twenty-eight (22%) had insurance coverage and 447 (78%) did not. In the group with insurance coverage for contraception, 38% (49/128) received a long-acting reversible contraception method or DMPA compared with 7% (33/447) in the group without insurance coverage for contraception. After adjusting for confounding, women with contraceptive coverage were more than five times as likely to receive immediate postabortion contraception with one of these methods compared with women without coverage (relative risk 5.6, 95% confidence interval 3.8-8.3). Women with contraceptive insurance coverage on the day of their abortion were more likely to leave the abortion clinic with an intrauterine device or implant in place or receive DMPA injection compared with women without coverage.

The Impact of Increasing Health Insurance Coverage on Disparities in Mortality: Health Care Reform in Colombia, 1998–2007

PubMed Central

Arroyave, Ivan; Cardona, Doris; Burdorf, Alex

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined the impact of expanding health insurance coverage on socioeconomic disparities in total and cardiovascular disease mortality from 1998 to 2007 in Colombia. Methods. We used Poisson regression to analyze data from mortality registries (633 905 deaths) linked to population census data. We used the relative index of inequality to compare disparities in mortality by education between periods of moderate increase (1998–2002) and accelerated increase (2003–2007) in health insurance coverage. Results. Disparities in mortality by education widened over time. Among men, the relative index of inequality increased from 2.59 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.52, 2.67) in 1998–2002 to 3.07 (95% CI = 2.99, 3.15) in 2003–2007, and among women, from 2.86 (95% CI = 2.77, 2.95) to 3.12 (95% CI = 3.03, 3.21), respectively. Disparities increased yearly by 11% in men and 4% in women in 1998–2002, whereas they increased by 1% in men per year and remained stable among women in 2003–2007. Conclusions. Mortality disparities widened significantly less during the period of increased health insurance coverage than the period of no coverage change. Although expanding coverage did not eliminate disparities, it may contribute to curbing future widening of disparities. PMID:23327277

Primary care practice and health professional determinants of immunisation coverage.

PubMed

Grant, Cameron C; Petousis-Harris, Helen; Turner, Nikki; Goodyear-Smith, Felicity; Kerse, Ngaire; Jones, Rhys; York, Deon; Desmond, Natalie; Stewart, Joanna

2011-08-01

To identify primary care factors associated with immunisation coverage. A survey during 2005-2006 of a random sample of New Zealand primary care practices, with over-sampling of practices serving indigenous children. An immunisation audit was conducted for children registered at each practice. Practice characteristics and the knowledge and attitudes of doctors, nurses and caregivers were measured. Practice immunisation coverage was defined as the percentage of registered children from 6 weeks to 23 months old at each practice who were fully immunised for age. Associations of practice, doctor, nurse and caregiver factors with practice immunisation coverage were determined using multiple regression analyses. One hundred and twenty-four (61%) of 205 eligible practices were recruited. A median (25th-75th centile) of 71% (57-77%) of registered children at each practice was fully immunised. In multivariate analyses, immunisation coverage was higher at practices with no staff shortages (median practice coverage 76% vs 67%, P = 0.004) and where doctors were confident in their immunisation knowledge (72% vs 67%, P= 0.005). Coverage was lower if the children's parents had received information antenatally, which discouraged immunisation (67% vs 73%, P = 0.008). Coverage decreased as socio-economic deprivation of the registered population increased (P < 0.001) and as the children's age (P = 0.001) and registration age (P = 0.02) increased. CONCLUSIONS Higher immunisation coverage is achieved by practices that establish an early relationship with the family and that are adequately resourced with stable and confident staff. Immunisation promotion should begin antenatally. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2011 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Complete immunization coverage and its determinants among children in Malaysia: findings from the National Health and Morbidity Survey (NHMS) 2016.

PubMed

Lim, K K; Chan, Y Y; Noor Ani, A; Rohani, J; Siti Norfadhilah, Z A; Santhi, M R

2017-12-01

The success of the Expanded Program on Immunization among children will greatly reduce the burden of illness and disability from vaccine preventable diseases. The aim of the study was to evaluate the complete immunization coverage and its determinants among children aged 12-23 months in Malaysia. Cross-sectional study. Data on immunization were extracted from the 2016 National Health and Morbidity Survey. Complete immunization coverage was classified as received all recommended primary vaccine doses by the age of 12 months and verified by vaccination cards, and incompletely immunized if they received partially recommended vaccine dose or not received any recommended vaccine dose or had no vaccination card. The multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the sociodemographic factors associated with complete immunization coverage. The overall complete immunization coverage among children (verified by cards) was 86.4% (n = 8920, 95% confidence interval: 85.4-87.4). Multivariable logistic regression analyses model revealed that factors significantly associated with complete immunization coverage were ethnicity, occupation of the mother, head of household's education level, and head of household's occupation. While sex, citizenship, household income, mother's age, and marital status were not significantly associated with complete immunization coverage. According to the World Health Organization criteria, the present study demonstrated that the immunization coverage of 86.4% is still unsatisfactory. Thus, the current intervention program should be enhanced in order to achieve the 95% coverage for all antigens in the national vaccination program. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confidence Intervals for Squared Semipartial Correlation Coefficients: The Effect of Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2010-01-01

The increase in the squared multiple correlation coefficient ([delta]R[superscript 2]) associated with a variable in a regression equation is a commonly used measure of importance in regression analysis. Algina, Keselman, and Penfield found that intervals based on asymptotic principles were typically very inaccurate, even though the sample size…

The web and public confidence in MMR vaccination in Italy.

PubMed

Aquino, Francesco; Donzelli, Gabriele; De Franco, Emanuela; Privitera, Gaetano; Lopalco, Pier Luigi; Carducci, Annalaura

2017-08-16

Measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage in Italy has been decreasing starting from 2012 and, at the present, none of the Italian regions has achieved the goal of 95% coverage target. A decision of the Court of Justice of Rimini in March 2012 that awarded vaccine-injury compensation for a case of autism has been indicated as a probable trigger event leading to a reduction of vaccine confidence in Italy. The aim of the study was to explore the relationship between MMR vaccination coverage to online search trends and social network activity on the topic "autism and MMR vaccine", during the period 2010-2015. A significant inverse correlation was found between MMR vaccination coverage and Internet search activity, tweets and Facebook posts. New media might have played a role in spreading misinformation. Media monitoring could be useful to assess the level of vaccine hesitancy and to plan and target effective information campaigns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of covariate mean differences on the standard error and confidence interval for the comparison of treatment means.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

2011-05-01

The use of covariates is commonly believed to reduce the unexplained error variance and the standard error for the comparison of treatment means, but the reduction in the standard error is neither guaranteed nor uniform over different sample sizes. The covariate mean differences between the treatment conditions can inflate the standard error of the covariate-adjusted mean difference and can actually produce a larger standard error for the adjusted mean difference than that for the unadjusted mean difference. When the covariate observations are conceived of as randomly varying from one study to another, the covariate mean differences can be related to a Hotelling's T(2) . Using this Hotelling's T(2) statistic, one can always find a minimum sample size to achieve a high probability of reducing the standard error and confidence interval width for the adjusted mean difference. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Coverage of a national cardiovascular risk assessment and management programme (NHS Health Check): Retrospective database study.

PubMed

Chang, Kiara Chu-Mei; Soljak, Michael; Lee, John Tayu; Woringer, Maria; Johnston, Desmond; Khunti, Kamlesh; Majeed, Azeem; Millett, Christopher

2015-09-01

To determine coverage of NHS Health Check, a national cardiovascular risk assessment programme in England, in the first four years after implementation, and to examine prevalence of high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and uptake of statins in high risk patients. Study sample was 95,571 patients in England aged 40-74years continuously registered with 509 practices in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between April 2009 and March 2013. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to assess predictors of Health Check attendance; elevated CVD risk factors and statin prescribing among attendees. Programme coverage was 21.4% over four years, with large variations between practices (0%-72.7%) and regions (9.4%-30.7%). Coverage was higher in older patients (adjusted odds ratio 2.88, 95% confidence interval 2.49-3.31 for patients 70-74years) and in patients with a family history of premature coronary heart disease (2.37, 2.22-2.53), but lower in Black Africans (0.75, 0.61-0.92) and Chinese (0.68, 0.47-0.96) compared with White British. Coverage was similar in patients living in deprived and affluent areas. Prevalence of high CVD risk (QRISK2≥20%) among attendees was 4.6%. One third (33.6%) of attendees at high risk were prescribed a statin after Health Checks. Coverage of the programme and statin prescribing in high risk individuals was low. Coverage was similar in deprived and affluent groups but lower in some ethnic minority groups, possibly widening inequalities. These findings raise a question about whether recommendations by WHO to develop CVD risk assessment programmes internationally will deliver anticipated health benefits. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Annoyance from transportation noise: relationships with exposure metrics DNL and DENL and their confidence intervals.

PubMed Central

Miedema, H M; Oudshoorn, C G

2001-01-01

We present a model of the distribution of noise annoyance with the mean varying as a function of the noise exposure. Day-night level (DNL) and day-evening-night level (DENL) were used as noise descriptors. Because the entire annoyance distribution has been modeled, any annoyance measure that summarizes this distribution can be calculated from the model. We fitted the model to data from noise annoyance studies for aircraft, road traffic, and railways separately. Polynomial approximations of relationships implied by the model for the combinations of the following exposure and annoyance measures are presented: DNL or DENL, and percentage "highly annoyed" (cutoff at 72 on a scale of 0-100), percentage "annoyed" (cutoff at 50 on a scale of 0-100), or percentage (at least) "a little annoyed" (cutoff at 28 on a scale of 0-100). These approximations are very good, and they are easier to use for practical calculations than the model itself, because the model involves a normal distribution. Our results are based on the same data set that was used earlier to establish relationships between DNL and percentage highly annoyed. In this paper we provide better estimates of the confidence intervals due to the improved model of the relationship between annoyance and noise exposure. Moreover, relationships using descriptors other than DNL and percentage highly annoyed, which are presented here, have not been established earlier on the basis of a large dataset. PMID:11335190

Factorial-based response-surface modeling with confidence intervals for optimizing thermal-optical transmission analysis of atmospheric black carbon.

PubMed

Conny, J M; Norris, G A; Gould, T R

2009-03-09

Thermal-optical transmission (TOT) analysis measures black carbon (BC) in atmospheric aerosol on a fibrous filter. The method pyrolyzes organic carbon (OC) and employs laser light absorption to distinguish BC from the pyrolyzed OC; however, the instrument does not necessarily separate the two physically. In addition, a comprehensive temperature protocol for the analysis based on the Beer-Lambert Law remains elusive. Here, empirical response-surface modeling was used to show how the temperature protocol in TOT analysis can be modified to distinguish pyrolyzed OC from BC based on the Beer-Lambert Law. We determined the apparent specific absorption cross sections for pyrolyzed OC (sigma(Char)) and BC (sigma(BC)), which accounted for individual absorption enhancement effects within the filter. Response-surface models of these cross sections were derived from a three-factor central-composite factorial experimental design: temperature and duration of the high-temperature step in the helium phase, and the heating increase in the helium-oxygen phase. The response surface for sigma(BC), which varied with instrument conditions, revealed a ridge indicating the correct conditions for OC pyrolysis in helium. The intersection of the sigma(BC) and sigma(Char) surfaces indicated the conditions where the cross sections were equivalent, satisfying an important assumption upon which the method relies. 95% confidence interval surfaces defined a confidence region for a range of pyrolysis conditions. Analyses of wintertime samples from Seattle, WA revealed a temperature between 830 degrees C and 850 degrees C as most suitable for the helium high-temperature step lasting 150s. However, a temperature as low as 750 degrees C could not be rejected statistically.

Coverage of pilot parenteral vaccination campaign against canine rabies in N'Djaména, Chad.

PubMed Central

Kayali, U.; Mindekem, R.; Yémadji, N.; Vounatsou, P.; Kaninga, Y.; Ndoutamia, A. G.; Zinsstag, J.

2003-01-01

Canine rabies, and thus human exposure to rabies, can be controlled through mass vaccination of the animal reservoir if dog owners are willing to cooperate. Inaccessible, ownerless dogs, however, reduce the vaccination coverage achieved in parenteral campaigns. This study aimed to estimate the vaccination coverage in dogs in three study zones of N'Djaména, Chad, after a pilot free parenteral mass vaccination campaign against rabies. We used a capture-mark-recapture approach for population estimates, with a Bayesian, Markov chain, Monte Carlo method to estimate the total number of owned dogs, and the ratio of ownerless to owned dogs to calculate vaccination coverage. When we took into account ownerless dogs, the vaccination coverage in the dog populations was 87% (95% confidence interval (CI), 84-89%) in study zone I, 71% (95% CI, 64-76%) in zone II, and 64% (95% CI, 58-71%) in zone III. The proportions of ownerless dogs to owned dogs were 1.1% (95% CI, 0-3.1%), 7.6% (95% CI, 0.7-16.5%), and 10.6% (95% CI, 1.6-19.1%) in the three study zones, respectively. Vaccination coverage in the three populations of owned dogs was 88% (95% CI, 84-92%) in zone I, 76% (95% CI, 71-81%) in zone II, and 70% (95% CI, 66-76%) in zone III. Participation of dog owners in the free campaign was high, and the number of inaccessible ownerless dogs was low. High levels of vaccination coverage could be achieved with parenteral mass vaccination. Regular parenteral vaccination campaigns to cover all of N'Djaména should be considered as an ethical way of preventing human rabies when post-exposure treatment is of limited availability and high in cost. PMID:14758434

Human papillomavirus vaccine delivery strategies that achieved high coverage in low- and middle-income countries

PubMed Central

Barge, Sandhya; Le, Nga Thi; Mugisha, Emmanuel; Penny, Mary E; Gandhi, Sanjay; Janmohamed, Amynah; Kumakech, Edward; Mosqueira, N Rocio; Nguyen, Nghi Quy; Paul, Proma; Tang, Yuxiao; Minh, Tran Hung; Uttekar, Bella Patel; Jumaan, Aisha O

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage after demonstration projects conducted in India, Peru, Uganda and Viet Nam by PATH and national governments and to explore the reasons for vaccine acceptance or refusal. Methods Vaccines were delivered through schools or health centres or in combination with other health interventions, and either monthly or through campaigns at fixed time points. Using a two-stage cluster sample design, the authors selected households in demonstration project areas and interviewed over 7000 parents or guardians of adolescent girls to assess coverage and acceptability. They defined full vaccination as the receipt of all three vaccine doses and used an open-ended question to explore acceptability. Findings Vaccination coverage in school-based programmes was 82.6% (95% confidence interval, CI: 79.3–85.6) in Peru, 88.9% (95% CI: 84.7–92.4) in 2009 in Uganda and 96.1% (95% CI: 93.0–97.8) in 2009 in Viet Nam. In India, a campaign approach achieved 77.2% (95% CI: 72.4–81.6) to 87.8% (95% CI: 84.3–91.3) coverage, whereas monthly delivery achieved 68.4% (95% CI: 63.4–73.4) to 83.3% (95% CI: 79.3–87.3) coverage. More than two thirds of respondents gave as reasons for accepting the HPV vaccine that: (i) it protects against cervical cancer; (ii) it prevents disease, or (iii) vaccines are good. Refusal was more often driven by programmatic considerations (e.g. school absenteeism) than by opposition to the vaccine. Conclusion High coverage with HPV vaccine among young adolescent girls was achieved through various delivery strategies in the developing countries studied. Reinforcing positive motivators for vaccine acceptance is likely to facilitate uptake. PMID:22084528

Implications of employer coverage of contraception: Cost-effectiveness analysis of contraception coverage under an employer mandate.

PubMed

Canestaro, W; Vodicka, E; Downing, D; Trussell, J

2017-01-01

Mandatory employer-based insurance coverage of contraception in the US has been a controversial component of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Prior research has examined the cost-effectiveness of contraception in general; however, no studies have developed a formal decision model in the context of the new ACA provisions. As such, this study aims to estimate the relative cost-effectiveness of insurance coverage of contraception under employer-sponsored insurance coverage taking into consideration newer regulations allowing for religious exemptions. A decision model was developed from the employer perspective to simulate pregnancy costs and outcomes associated with insurance coverage. Method-specific estimates of contraception failure rates, outcomes and costs were derived from the literature. Uptake by marital status and age was drawn from a nationally representative database. Providing no contraception coverage resulted in 33 more unintended pregnancies per 1000 women (95% confidence range: 22.4; 44.0). This subsequently significantly increased the number of unintended births and terminations. Total costs were higher among uninsured women owing to higher costs of pregnancy outcomes. The effect of no insurance was greatest on unmarried women 20-29 years old. Denying female employees' full coverage of contraceptives increases total costs from the employer perspective, as well as the total number of terminations. Insurance coverage was found to be significantly associated with women's choice of contraceptive method in a large nationally representative sample. Using a decision model to extrapolate to pregnancy outcomes, we found a large and statistically significant difference in unintended pregnancy and terminations. Denying women contraception coverage may have significant consequences for pregnancy outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

Treesearch

Steve Verrill

2003-01-01

This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

Effect of maternal HIV status on vaccination coverage among sub-Saharan African children: A socio-ecological analysis.

PubMed

Adetokunboh, Olatunji O; Uthman, Olalekan A; Wiysonge, Charles S

2018-05-02

We investigated the relationship between maternal HIV status and uptake of the full series of three doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis containing vaccines (DTP3) in sub-Saharan African children. We used data obtained from demographic and health surveys conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted meta-analysis and calculated pooled odds ratios (OR) for the association between maternal HIV status and DTP3 vaccination status for each country. A total of 4,187 out of 5,537 children of women living with HIV received DTP3 (75.6%), compared to 71,290 of 113,513 (62.8%) children of HIV negative women. National DTP3 coverage among children of HIV-positive women varied between 24% and 96% while among children of HIV negative women it was between 26% and 92%. Overall pooled result showed no significant difference in DTP3 coverage between the two groups (OR = 1.05; 95% confidence interval 0.91 - 1.22), with statistically significant heterogeneity (Chi 2 = 91.63, P = 0.000, I 2 = 71.6%). There was no significant association between DTP3 coverage and maternal HIV status in sub-Saharan Africa. However, DTP3 coverage for both HIV-exposed and non-exposed children were below the required target. Meta-regression revealed no significant association between DTP3 coverage and country characteristics (e.g. HIV prevalence among women, antiretroviral therapy coverage, gross domestic product per capita, human development index, adult literacy rate and sub-region). Improved prevention of mother-to-child transmission services might have contributed to some extent to the higher DTP3 vaccination coverage among the HIV-exposed children. There is also need to address barriers impeding uptake of vaccination among HIV-exposed and non-exposed children.

Change in Health Insurance Coverage in Massachusetts and Other New England States by Perceived Health Status: Potential Impact of Health Reform

PubMed Central

Zack, Matthew M.; Strine, Tara W.; Druss, Benjamin G.; Simoes, Eduardo

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined the impact of Massachusetts health reform and its public health component (enacted in 2006) on change in health insurance coverage by perceived health. Methods. We used 2003–2009 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data. We used a difference-in-differences framework to examine the experience in Massachusetts to predict the outcomes of national health care reform. Results. The proportion of adults aged 18 to 64 years with health insurance coverage increased more in Massachusetts than in other New England states (4.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.5%, 5.6%). For those with higher perceived health care need (more recent mentally and physically unhealthy days and activity limitation days [ALDs]), the postreform proportion significantly exceeded prereform (P < .001). Groups with higher perceived health care need represented a disproportionate increase in health insurance coverage in Massachusetts compared with other New England states—from 4.3% (95% CI = 3.3%, 5.4%) for fewer than 14 ALDs to 9.0% (95% CI = 4.5%, 13.5%) for 14 or more ALDs. Conclusions. On the basis of the Massachusetts experience, full implementation of the Affordable Care Act may increase health insurance coverage especially among populations with higher perceived health care need. PMID:23597359

New Approaches to Robust Confidence Intervals for Location: A Simulation Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

obtain a denominator for the test statistic. Those statistics based on location estimates derived from Hampel’s redescending influence function or v...defined an influence function for a test in terms of the behavior of its P-values when the data are sampled from a model distribution modified by point...proposal could be used for interval estimation as well as hypothesis testing, the extension is immediate. Once an influence function has been defined

Evaluation of impact of measles rubella campaign on vaccination coverage and routine immunization services in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Uddin, Md Jasim; Adhikary, Gourab; Ali, Md Wazed; Ahmed, Shahabuddin; Shamsuzzaman, Md; Odell, Chris; Hashiguchi, Lauren; Lim, Stephen S; Alam, Nurul

2016-08-12

Like other countries in Asia, measles-rubella (MR) vaccine coverage in Bangladesh is suboptimal whereas 90-95 % coverage is needed for elimination of these diseases. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW) of the Government of Bangladesh implemented MR campaign in January-February 2014 to increase MR vaccination coverage. Strategically, the MOHFW used both routine immunization centres and educational institutions for providing vaccine to the children aged 9 months to <15 years. The evaluation was carried out to assess the impact of the campaign on MR vaccination and routine immunization services. Both quantitative and qualitative evaluations were done before and after implementation of the campaign. Quantitative data were presented with mean (standard deviation, SD) for continuous variables and with proportion for categorical variables. The overall and age- and sex-specific coverage rates were calculated for each region and then combined. Categorical variables were compared by chi-square statistics. Multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) of coverage associated with covariates, with adjustment for other covariates. Qualitative data were analyzed using content analysis. The evaluations found MR coverage was very low (<13 %) before the campaign and it rose to 90 % after the campaign. The pre-post campaign difference in MR coverage in each stratum was highly significant (p < 0.001). The campaign achieved high coverage despite relatively low level (23 %) of interpersonal communication with caregivers through registration process. Child registration was associated with higher MR coverage (OR 2.91, 95 % CI 1.91-4.44). Children who attended school were more likely to be vaccinated (OR 8.97, 95 % CI 6.17-13.04) compared to those who did not attend school. Children of caregivers with primary or secondary or higher education had higher coverage compared to children of

Concept analysis: confidence/self-confidence.

PubMed

Perry, Patricia

2011-01-01

Confidence and self-confidence are crucial practice elements in nursing education and practice. Nurse educators should have an understanding of the concept of confidence in order to assist in the accomplishment of nursing students and their learning of technical and nontechnical skills. With the aim of facilitating trusted care of patients in the healthcare setting, nursing professionals must exhibit confidence, and, as such, clarification and analysis of its meaning is necessary. The purpose of this analysis is to provide clarity to the meaning of the concept confidence/self-confidence, while gaining a more comprehensive understanding of its attributes, antecedents, and consequences. Walker and Avant's eight-step method of concept analysis was utilized for the framework of the analysis process with model, contrary, borderline, and related cases presented along with attributes, antecedents, consequences, and empirical referents identified. Understanding both the individualized development of confidence among prelicensure nursing students and the role of the nurse educator in the development of confident nursing practice, nurse educators can assist students in the development of confidence and competency. Future research surrounding the nature and development of confidence/self-confidence in the prelicensure nursing student experiencing human patient simulation sessions would assist to help educators further promote the development of confidence. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Confidence limit calculation for antidotal potency ratio derived from lethal dose 50

PubMed Central

Manage, Ananda; Petrikovics, Ilona

2013-01-01

AIM: To describe confidence interval calculation for antidotal potency ratios using bootstrap method. METHODS: We can easily adapt the nonparametric bootstrap method which was invented by Efron to construct confidence intervals in such situations like this. The bootstrap method is a resampling method in which the bootstrap samples are obtained by resampling from the original sample. RESULTS: The described confidence interval calculation using bootstrap method does not require the sampling distribution antidotal potency ratio. This can serve as a substantial help for toxicologists, who are directed to employ the Dixon up-and-down method with the application of lower number of animals to determine lethal dose 50 values for characterizing the investigated toxic molecules and eventually for characterizing the antidotal protections by the test antidotal systems. CONCLUSION: The described method can serve as a useful tool in various other applications. Simplicity of the method makes it easier to do the calculation using most of the programming software packages. PMID:25237618

Client-Level Coverage of Needle and Syringe Program and High-Risk Injection Behaviors: A Case Study of People Who Inject Drugs in Kermanshah, Iran.

PubMed

Noroozi, Mehdi; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Noroozi, Alireza; Mehrabi, Yadoallah; Hajebi, Ahmad; Zamani, Saman; Sharifi, Hamid; Higgs, Peter; Soori, Hamid

2015-01-01

Needle-syringe programs (NSP) have been running in Iran since 2002. However, the coverage of such program among the NSP clients at the individual level was not studies yet. This study aimed to determine the client coverage of NSP and its correlation with high injection-related risk behaviors. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Kermanshah province, Iran, in 2014. 230 people who inject drugs (PWID) recruited from two drop-in centers (DICs) from April to September 2014, participated in a face-to-face interview to provide information related individual coverage of NSP, demographic characteristics, and injecting behaviors 30 days prior to the interview. Overall, the average of syringe coverage was 158% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 65.7-205.5], while 56% (95% CI = 40-97) have individual converge less than 100%. Needle/syringe sharing was significantly higher among individual with low NSP coverage [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.3-6.2]. About 85% participants with coverage of less than 100% reported reuse of syringe within the last 30 days (AOR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.4-7.7). PWID are different regarding their NSP individual-level converges. There are certain clusters of PWID, who do not receive sufficient number of syringes. Given that insufficient individual syringe coverage level is highly associated with injection risk behaviors, reasons for such low converge need to be assessed and addressed carefully.

Client-Level Coverage of Needle and Syringe Program and High-Risk Injection Behaviors: A Case Study of People Who Inject Drugs in Kermanshah, Iran

PubMed Central

Noroozi, Mehdi; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Noroozi, Alireza; Mehrabi, Yadoallah; Hajebi, Ahmad; Zamani, Saman; Sharifi, Hamid; Higgs, Peter; Soori, Hamid

2015-01-01

Background Needle-syringe programs (NSP) have been running in Iran since 2002. However, the coverage of such program among the NSP clients at the individual level was not studies yet. This study aimed to determine the client coverage of NSP and its correlation with high injection-related risk behaviors. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Kermanshah province, Iran, in 2014. 230 people who inject drugs (PWID) recruited from two drop-in centers (DICs) from April to September 2014, participated in a face-to-face interview to provide information related individual coverage of NSP, demographic characteristics, and injecting behaviors 30 days prior to the interview. Findings Overall, the average of syringe coverage was 158% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 65.7-205.5], while 56% (95% CI = 40-97) have individual converge less than 100%. Needle/syringe sharing was significantly higher among individual with low NSP coverage [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.3-6.2]. About 85% participants with coverage of less than 100% reported reuse of syringe within the last 30 days (AOR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.4-7.7). Conclusion PWID are different regarding their NSP individual-level converges. There are certain clusters of PWID, who do not receive sufficient number of syringes. Given that insufficient individual syringe coverage level is highly associated with injection risk behaviors, reasons for such low converge need to be assessed and addressed carefully. PMID:26885353

Can influenza vaccination coverage among healthcare workers influence the risk of nosocomial influenza-like illness in hospitalized patients?

PubMed

Amodio, E; Restivo, V; Firenze, A; Mammina, C; Tramuto, F; Vitale, F

2014-03-01

Approximately 20% of healthcare workers are infected with influenza each year, causing nosocomial outbreaks and staff shortages. Despite influenza vaccination of healthcare workers representing the most effective preventive strategy, coverage remains low. To analyse the risk of nosocomial influenza-like illness (NILI) among patients admitted to an acute care hospital in relation to influenza vaccination coverage among healthcare workers. Data collected over seven consecutive influenza seasons (2005-2012) in an Italian acute care hospital were analysed retrospectively. Three different sources of data were used: hospital discharge records; influenza vaccination coverage among healthcare workers; and incidence of ILI in the general population. Clinical modification codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 9(th) Revision were used to define NILI. Overall, 62,343 hospitalized patients were included in the study, 185 (0.03%) of whom were identified as NILI cases. Over the study period, influenza vaccination coverage among healthcare workers decreased from 13.2% to 3.1% (P < 0.001), whereas the frequency of NILI in hospitalized patients increased from 1.1‰ to 5.7‰ (P < 0.001). A significant inverse association was observed between influenza vaccination coverage among healthcare workers and rate of NILI among patients (adjusted odds ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.94-0.99). Increasing influenza vaccination coverage among healthcare workers could reduce the risk of NILI in patients hospitalized in acute hospitals. This study offers a reliable and cost-saving methodology that could help hospital management to assess and make known the benefits of influenza vaccination among healthcare workers. Copyright © 2014 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of income and dental insurance coverage on need for dental care in Canada.

PubMed

Duncan, Laura; Bonner, Ashley

2014-01-01

To estimate the strength of the associations among income, dental insurance coverage and need for dental care (both urgent and nonurgent) in Canada. Multinomial logistic models were fit to data from the 2009 Canadian Health Measures Survey to test unadjusted associations among household income, dental insurance coverage and the need for urgent and nonurgent dental care. Adjusted associations, controlling for socio-demographic variables (age, sex, immigration status, education and province of residence) and oral health habits (brushing, flossing and visits to the dentist) were also evaluated. In the unadjusted model, need for treatment was lower among people with dental insurance than among those without insurance coverage (for urgent treatment: odds ratio [OR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66-0.89; for nonurgent treatment: OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.70). In addition, there was an income gradient, whereby people with higher income had less need for dental treatment (for urgent treatment: OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00; for nonurgent treatment: OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-0.99). Controlling for socio-demographic and oral health variables decreased the magnitude of the association between dental insurance coverage and need for treatment (for urgent treatment: OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.68-0.95; for nonurgent treatment: OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63-0.92). An interaction term between dental coverage and income was significant in relation to the need for nonurgent treatment: among lower-income individuals, having insurance slightly decreased the odds of needing nonurgent treatment, with this decrease in odds becoming greater for middle-income earners and even greater for high-income earners. Income-related inequality in need for dental care exists even in the presence of dental insurance coverage and good dental hygiene habits. These findings highlight the need for increased access to dental care for low-income populations and families living in poverty.

Neighborhood Deprivation and Childhood Asthma Outcomes, Accounting for Insurance Coverage.

PubMed

Nkoy, Flory L; Stone, Bryan L; Knighton, Andrew J; Fassl, Bernhard A; Johnson, Joseph M; Maloney, Christopher G; Savitz, Lucy A

2018-01-09

Collecting social determinants data is challenging. We assigned patients a neighborhood-level social determinant measure, the area of deprivation index (ADI), by using census data. We then assessed the association between neighborhood deprivation and asthma hospitalization outcomes and tested the influence of insurance coverage. A retrospective cohort study of children 2 to 17 years old admitted for asthma at 8 hospitals. An administrative database was used to collect patient data, including hospitalization outcomes and neighborhood deprivation status (ADI scores), which were grouped into quintiles (ADI 1, the least deprived neighborhoods; ADI 5, the most deprived neighborhoods). We used multivariable models, adjusting for covariates, to assess the associations and added a neighborhood deprivation status and insurance coverage interaction term. A total of 2270 children (median age 5 years; 40.6% girls) were admitted for asthma. We noted that higher ADI quintiles were associated with greater length of stay, higher cost, and more asthma readmissions ( P < .05 for most quintiles). Having public insurance was independently associated with greater length of stay (β: 1.171; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.117-1.228; P < .001), higher cost (β: 1.147; 95% CI: 1.093-1.203; P < .001), and higher readmission odds (odds ratio: 1.81; 95% CI: 1.46-2.24; P < .001). There was a significant deprivation-insurance effect modification, with public insurance associated with worse outcomes and private insurance with better outcomes across ADI quintiles ( P < .05 for most combinations). Neighborhood-level ADI measure is associated with asthma hospitalization outcomes. However, insurance coverage modifies this relationship and needs to be considered when using the ADI to identify and address health care disparities. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Influenza vaccination coverage and effectiveness in young children in Thailand, 2011–2013

PubMed Central

Kittikraisak, Wanitchaya; Suntarattiwong, Piyarat; Levy, Jens; Fernandez, Stefan; Dawood, Fatimah S; Olsen, Sonja J; Chotpitayasunondh, Tawee

2015-01-01

Background Since 2009, Thailand has recommended influenza vaccine for children aged 6 months through 2 years, but no estimates of influenza vaccine coverage or effectiveness are available for this target group. Methods During August 2011–May 2013, high-risk and healthy children aged ≤36 months were enrolled in a 2-year prospective cohort study. Parents were contacted weekly about acute respiratory illness (ARI) in their child. Ill children had combined nasal and throat swabs tested for influenza viruses by real-time reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction. Influenza vaccination status was verified with vaccination cards. The Cox proportional hazards approach was used to estimate hazard ratios. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as 100% x (1-hazard ratio). Results During 2011–2013, 968 children were enrolled (median age, 10·3 months); 948 (97·9%) had a vaccination record and were included. Of these, 394 (41·6%) had ≥1 medical conditions. Vaccination coverage for the 2011–2012 and 2012–2013 seasons was 29·3% (93/317) and 30·0% (197/656), respectively. In 2011–2012, there were 213 ARI episodes, of which 10 (4·6%) were influenza positive (2·3 per 1000 vaccinated and 3·8 per 1000 unvaccinated child-weeks). The VE was 55% (95% confidence interval [CI], −72, 88). In 2012–2013, there were 846 ARIs, of which 52 (6·2%) were influenza positive (1·8 per 1000 vaccinated and 4·5 per 1000 unvaccinated child-weeks). The VE was 64% (CI, 13%, 85%). Conclusion Influenza vaccination coverage among young children in Thailand was low, although vaccination was moderately effective. Continued efforts are needed to increase influenza vaccination coverage and evaluate VE among young children in Thailand. PMID:25557920

Integration of multiple biological features yields high confidence human protein interactome.

PubMed

Karagoz, Kubra; Sevimoglu, Tuba; Arga, Kazim Yalcin

2016-08-21

The biological function of a protein is usually determined by its physical interaction with other proteins. Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are identified through various experimental methods and are stored in curated databases. The noisiness of the existing PPI data is evident, and it is essential that a more reliable data is generated. Furthermore, the selection of a set of PPIs at different confidence levels might be necessary for many studies. Although different methodologies were introduced to evaluate the confidence scores for binary interactions, a highly reliable, almost complete PPI network of Homo sapiens is not proposed yet. The quality and coverage of human protein interactome need to be improved to be used in various disciplines, especially in biomedicine. In the present work, we propose an unsupervised statistical approach to assign confidence scores to PPIs of H. sapiens. To achieve this goal PPI data from six different databases were collected and a total of 295,288 non-redundant interactions between 15,950 proteins were acquired. The present scoring system included the context information that was assigned to PPIs derived from eight biological attributes. A high confidence network, which included 147,923 binary interactions between 13,213 proteins, had scores greater than the cutoff value of 0.80, for which sensitivity, specificity, and coverage were 94.5%, 80.9%, and 82.8%, respectively. We compared the present scoring method with others for evaluation. Reducing the noise inherent in experimental PPIs via our scoring scheme increased the accuracy significantly. As it was demonstrated through the assessment of process and cancer subnetworks, this study allows researchers to construct and analyze context-specific networks via valid PPI sets and one can easily achieve subnetworks around proteins of interest at a specified confidence level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: “P” values, statistical significance and confidence intervals

PubMed Central

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

2015-01-01

In the second part of a series on pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at various ways in which a statistically significant study result can be expressed. We debunk some of the myths regarding the ‘P’ value, explain the importance of ‘confidence intervals’ and clarify the importance of including both values in a paper PMID:25878958

Compound Event Barrier Coverage in Wireless Sensor Networks under Multi-Constraint Conditions.

PubMed

Zhuang, Yaoming; Wu, Chengdong; Zhang, Yunzhou; Jia, Zixi

2016-12-24

It is important to monitor compound event by barrier coverage issues in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Compound event barrier coverage (CEBC) is a novel coverage problem. Unlike traditional ones, the data of compound event barrier coverage comes from different types of sensors. It will be subject to multiple constraints under complex conditions in real-world applications. The main objective of this paper is to design an efficient algorithm for complex conditions that can combine the compound event confidence. Moreover, a multiplier method based on an active-set strategy (ASMP) is proposed to optimize the multiple constraints in compound event barrier coverage. The algorithm can calculate the coverage ratio efficiently and allocate the sensor resources reasonably in compound event barrier coverage. The proposed algorithm can simplify complex problems to reduce the computational load of the network and improve the network efficiency. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is more effective and efficient than existing methods, especially in the allocation of sensor resources.

Compound Event Barrier Coverage in Wireless Sensor Networks under Multi-Constraint Conditions

PubMed Central

Zhuang, Yaoming; Wu, Chengdong; Zhang, Yunzhou; Jia, Zixi

2016-01-01

It is important to monitor compound event by barrier coverage issues in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Compound event barrier coverage (CEBC) is a novel coverage problem. Unlike traditional ones, the data of compound event barrier coverage comes from different types of sensors. It will be subject to multiple constraints under complex conditions in real-world applications. The main objective of this paper is to design an efficient algorithm for complex conditions that can combine the compound event confidence. Moreover, a multiplier method based on an active-set strategy (ASMP) is proposed to optimize the multiple constraints in compound event barrier coverage. The algorithm can calculate the coverage ratio efficiently and allocate the sensor resources reasonably in compound event barrier coverage. The proposed algorithm can simplify complex problems to reduce the computational load of the network and improve the network efficiency. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is more effective and efficient than existing methods, especially in the allocation of sensor resources. PMID:28029118

Mapping AIS coverage for trusted surveillance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapinski, Anna-Liesa S.; Isenor, Anthony W.

2010-10-01

Automatic Identification System (AIS) is an unattended vessel reporting system developed for collision avoidance. Shipboard AIS equipment automatically broadcasts vessel positional data at regular intervals. The real-time position and identity data from a vessel is received by other vessels in the area thereby assisting with local navigation. As well, AIS broadcasts are beneficial to those concerned with coastal and harbour security. Land-based AIS receiving stations can also collect the AIS broadcasts. However, reception at the land station is dependent upon the ship's position relative to the receiving station. For AIS to be used as a trusted surveillance system, the characteristics of the AIS coverage area in the vicinity of the station (or stations) should be understood. This paper presents some results of a method being investigated at DRDC Atlantic, Canada) to map the AIS coverage characteristics of a dynamic AIS reception network. The method is shown to clearly distinguish AIS reception edges from those edges caused by vessel traffic patterns. The method can also be used to identify temporal changes in the coverage area, an important characteristic for local maritime security surveillance activities. Future research using the coverage estimate technique is also proposed to support surveillance activities.

The effect of health-facility admission and skilled birth attendant coverage on maternal survival in India: a case-control analysis.

PubMed

Montgomery, Ann L; Fadel, Shaza; Kumar, Rajesh; Bondy, Sue; Moineddin, Rahim; Jha, Prabhat

2014-01-01

Research in areas of low skilled attendant coverage found that maternal mortality is paradoxically higher in women who seek obstetric care. We estimated the effect of health-facility admission on maternal survival, and how this effect varies with skilled attendant coverage across India. Using unmatched population-based case-control analysis of national datasets, we compared the effect of health-facility admission at any time (antenatal, intrapartum, postpartum) on maternal deaths (cases) to women reporting pregnancies (controls). Probability of maternal death decreased with increasing skilled attendant coverage, among both women who were and were not admitted to a health-facility, however, the risk of death among women who were admitted was higher (at 50% coverage, OR = 2.32, 95% confidence interval 1.85-2.92) than among those women who were not; while at higher levels of coverage, the effect of health-facility admission was attenuated. In a secondary analysis, the probability of maternal death decreased with increasing coverage among both women admitted for delivery or delivered at home but there was no effect of admission for delivery on mortality risk (50% coverage, OR = 1.0, 0.80-1.25), suggesting that poor quality of obstetric care may have attenuated the benefits of facility-based care. Subpopulation analysis of obstetric hemorrhage cases and report of 'excessive bleeding' in controls showed that the probability of maternal death decreased with increasing skilled attendant coverage; but the effect of health-facility admission was attenuated (at 50% coverage, OR = 1.47, 0.95-1.79), suggesting that some of the effect in the main model can be explained by women arriving at facility with complications underway. Finally, highest risk associated with health-facility admission was clustered in women with education ≤ 8 years. The effect of health-facility admission did vary by skilled attendant coverage, and this effect appears to be driven partially by reverse

Determinants of Health Insurance Coverage among People Aged 45 and over in China: Who Buys Public, Private and Multiple Insurance

PubMed Central

Jin, Yinzi; Hou, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Donglan

2016-01-01

Background China is reforming and restructuring its health insurance system to achieve the goal of universal coverage. This study aims to understand the determinants of public, private and multiple insurance coverage among people of retirement-age in China. Methods We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011 and 2013, a nationally representative survey of Chinese people aged 45 and over. Multinomial logit regression was performed to identify the determinants of public, private and multiple health insurance coverage. We also conducted logit regression to examine the association between public insurance coverage and demand for private insurance. Results In 2013, 94.5% of this population had at least one type of public insurance, and 12.2% purchased private insurance. In general, we found that rural residents were less likely to be uninsured (Relative Risk Ratio (RRR) = 0.40, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.34–0.47) and were less likely to buy private insurance (RRR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.16–0.31). But rural-to-urban migrants were more likely to be uninsured (RRR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.24–1.57). Public health insurance coverage may crowd out private insurance market (Odds Ratio = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.48–0.63), particularly among enrollees of Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance. There exists a huge socioeconomic disparity in both public and private insurance coverage. Conclusion The migrants, the poor and the vulnerable remained in the edge of the system. The growing private insurance market did not provide sufficient financial protection and did not cover the people with the greatest need. To achieve universal coverage and reduce socioeconomic disparity, China should integrate the urban and rural public insurance schemes across regions and remove the barriers for the middle-income and low-income to access private insurance. PMID:27564320

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging using sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction for detection of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ma, Heng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Jing; Ge, Lan; An, Jing; Tang, Qing; Li, Han; Zhang, Yu; Chen, David; Wang, Yong; Liu, Jiabin; Liang, Zhigang; Lin, Kai; Jin, Lixin; Bi, Xiaoming; Li, Kuncheng; Li, Debiao

2012-04-15

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction (SW-CG-HYPR) allows whole left ventricular coverage, improved temporal and spatial resolution and signal/noise ratio, and reduced cardiac motion-related image artifacts. The accuracy of this technique for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been determined in a large number of patients. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR in patients with suspected CAD. A total of 50 consecutive patients who were scheduled for coronary angiography with suspected CAD underwent myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR at 3.0 T. The perfusion defects were interpreted qualitatively by 2 blinded observers and were correlated with x-ray angiographic stenoses ≥50%. The prevalence of CAD was 56%. In the per-patient analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of SW-CG-HYPR was 96% (95% confidence interval 82% to 100%), 82% (95% confidence interval 60% to 95%), 87% (95% confidence interval 70% to 96%), 95% (95% confidence interval 74% to100%), and 90% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%), respectively. In the per-vessel analysis, the corresponding values were 98% (95% confidence interval 91% to 100%), 89% (95% confidence interval 80% to 94%), 86% (95% confidence interval 76% to 93%), 99% (95% confidence interval 93% to 100%), and 93% (95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), respectively. In conclusion, myocardial perfusion MRI using SW-CG-HYPR allows whole left ventricular coverage and high resolution and has high diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to Select Social-Cognitive Determinants for Behavior Change Interventions.

PubMed

Crutzen, Rik; Peters, Gjalt-Jorn Ygram; Noijen, Judith

2017-01-01

When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention) in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy), we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.

Coverage and determinants of childhood immunization in Nigeria: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Adeloye, Davies; Jacobs, Wura; Amuta, Ann O; Ogundipe, Oluwatomisin; Mosaku, Oluwaseun; Gadanya, Muktar A; Oni, Gbolahan

2017-05-19

The proportion of fully immunized children in Nigeria is reportedly low. There are concerns over national immunization data quality, with this possibly limiting country-wide response. We reviewed publicly available evidence on routine immunization across Nigeria to estimate national and zonal coverage of childhood immunization and associated determinants. A systematic search of Medline, EMBASE, Global Health and African Journals Online (AJOL) was conducted. We included population-based studies on childhood immunization in Nigeria. A random effects meta-analysis was conducted on extracted crude rates to arrive at national and zonal pooled estimates for the country. Our search returned 646 hits. 21 studies covering 25 sites and 26,960 children were selected. The estimated proportion of fully immunized children in Nigeria was 34.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27.0-41.9), with South-south zone having the highest at 51.5% (95% CI: 20.5-82.6), and North-west the lowest at 9.5% (95% CI: 4.6-14.4). Mother's social engagements (OR=4.0, 95% CI: 1.9-8.1) and vaccines unavailability (OR=3.9, 95% CI: 1.2-12.3) were mostly reported for low coverage. Other leading determinants were vaccine safety concerns (OR=3.0, 95% CI: 0.9-9.4), mother's low education (OR=2.5, 95% CI: 1.8-3.6) and poor information (OR=2.0, 95% CI: 0.8-4.7). Our study suggests a low coverage of childhood immunization in Nigeria. Due to the paucity of data in the Northern states, we are still uncertain of the quality of evidence presented. It is hoped that this study will prompt the needed research, public health and policy changes toward increased evenly-spread coverage of childhood immunization in the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coverage and Consumption of Micronutrient Powders, Fortified Staples, and Iodized Salt Among Children Aged 6 to 23 Months in Selected Neighborhoods of Nairobi County, Kenya.

PubMed

Leyvraz, Magali; David-Kigaru, Dorcus M; Macharia-Mutie, Catherine; Aaron, Grant J; Roefs, Marlene; Tumilowicz, Alison

2018-03-01

Intake of micronutrient-rich foods among children aged 6 to 23 months in Nairobi is low. This study aimed to assess existing coverage and utilization of micronutrient powders (MNPs), fortified staples, and iodized salt among children aged 6 to 23 months prior to implementation of an MNP program. A cross-sectional survey among caregivers of children aged 6 to 23 months (n = 618) was implemented in 7 neighborhoods within Nairobi County, representing the implementation area of the new MNP program. Results for MNP coverage and utilization showed 28.5% of all caregivers were aware of MNP, 18.5% had ever received MNP for their child, and 10.8% had fed MNP to their child in the previous 7 days. Effective coverage (ie, the child had been given the MNP at least 3 times in the previous 7 days) was 5.8%. Effective coverage of infants and young children with poor feeding practices was significantly lower as compared to those with non-poor feeding practices (coverage ratio, 0.34; confidence interval, 0.12-0.70). Most households purchased iodized salt (96.9%), fortified oil (61.0%), and fortified maize flour (93.9%). An estimated 23.9% of vitamin A requirements of children (6-23 months) were provided from fortified oil and 50.7% of iron from fortified maize flour. Most households consumed processed milk (81%). Coverage of MNPs in the surveyed neighborhoods was low. Coverage of fortified salt, oil, and maize flour was high and provided significant amount of micronutrients to children. Processed milk has potential as a vehicle for food fortification.

Assessing Measurement Error in Medicare Coverage From the National Health Interview Survey

PubMed Central

Gindi, Renee; Cohen, Robin A.

2012-01-01

Objectives Using linked administrative data, to validate Medicare coverage estimates among adults aged 65 or older from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), and to assess the impact of a recently added Medicare probe question on the validity of these estimates. Data sources Linked 2005 NHIS and Master Beneficiary Record and Payment History Update System files from the Social Security Administration (SSA). Study design We compared Medicare coverage reported on NHIS with “benchmark” benefit records from SSA. Principal findings With the addition of the probe question, more reports of coverage were captured, and the agreement between the NHIS-reported coverage and SSA records increased from 88% to 95%. Few additional overreports were observed. Conclusions Increased accuracy of the Medicare coverage status of NHIS participants was achieved with the Medicare probe question. Though some misclassification remains, data users interested in Medicare coverage as an outcome or correlate can use this survey measure with confidence. PMID:24800138

Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: What Does Expertise Buy You?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKenzie, Craig R. M.; Liersch, Michael J.; Yaniv, Ilan

2008-01-01

People's 90% subjective confidence intervals typically contain the true value about 50% of the time, indicating extreme overconfidence. Previous results have been mixed regarding whether experts are as overconfident as novices. Experiment 1 examined interval estimates from information technology (IT) professionals and UC San Diego (UCSD) students…

The free vaccination policy of influenza in Beijing, China: The vaccine coverage and its associated factors.

PubMed

Lv, Min; Fang, Renfei; Wu, Jiang; Pang, Xinghuo; Deng, Ying; Lei, Trudy; Xie, Zheng

2016-04-19

In order to improve influenza vaccination coverage, the coverage rate and reasons for non-vaccination need to be determined. In 2007, the Beijing Government published a policy providing free influenza vaccinations to elderly people living in Beijing who are older than 60. This study examines the vaccination coverage after the policy was carried out and factors influencing vaccination among the elderly in Beijing. A cross-sectional survey was conducted through the use of questionnaires in 2013. A total of 1673 eligible participants were selected by multistage stratified random sampling in Beijing using anonymous questionnaires in-person. They were surveyed to determine vaccination status and social demographic information. The influenza vaccination coverage was 38.7% among elderly people in Beijing in 2012. The most common reason for not being vaccinated was people thinking they did not need to have a flu shot. After controlling for age, gender, income, self-reported health status, and the acceptance of health promotion, the rate in rural areas was 2.566 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.801-3.655, P<0.010) times greater than that in urban areas. Different mechanisms of health education and health promotion have different influences on vaccination uptake. Those whom received information through television, community boards, or doctors were more likely to get vaccinated compared to those who did not (Odds Ratio [OR]=1.403, P<0.010; OR=1.812, P<0.010; OR=2.647, P<0.010). The influenza vaccine coverage in Beijing is much lower than that of developed countries with similar policies. The rural-urban disparity in coverage rate (64.1% versus 33.5%), may be explained by differing health provision systems and personal attitudes toward free services due to socioeconomic factors. Methods for increasing vaccination levels include increasing the focus on primary care and health education programs, particularly recommendations from doctors, to the distinct target populations

Confidence intervals for effect sizes: compliance and clinical significance in the Journal of Consulting and clinical Psychology.

PubMed

Odgaard, Eric C; Fowler, Robert L

2010-06-01

In 2005, the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology (JCCP) became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest editorial effort to improve statistical reporting practices in any APA journal in at least a decade, in this article we investigate the efficacy of that change. All intervention studies published in JCCP in 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008 were reviewed. Each article was coded for method of clinical significance, type of ES, and type of associated CI, broken down by statistical test (F, t, chi-square, r/R(2), and multivariate modeling). By 2008, clinical significance compliance was 75% (up from 31%), with 94% of studies reporting some measure of ES (reporting improved for individual statistical tests ranging from eta(2) = .05 to .17, with reasonable CIs). Reporting of CIs for ESs also improved, although only to 40%. Also, the vast majority of reported CIs used approximations, which become progressively less accurate for smaller sample sizes and larger ESs (cf. Algina & Kessleman, 2003). Changes are near asymptote for ESs and clinical significance, but CIs lag behind. As CIs for ESs are required for primary outcomes, we show how to compute CIs for the vast majority of ESs reported in JCCP, with an example of how to use CIs for ESs as a method to assess clinical significance.

The Interpretation of Scholars' Interpretations of Confidence Intervals: Criticism, Replication, and Extension of Hoekstra et al. (2014)

PubMed Central

García-Pérez, Miguel A.; Alcalá-Quintana, Rocío

2016-01-01

Hoekstra et al. (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 2014, 21:1157–1164) surveyed the interpretation of confidence intervals (CIs) by first-year students, master students, and researchers with six items expressing misinterpretations of CIs. They asked respondents to answer all items, computed the number of items endorsed, and concluded that misinterpretation of CIs is robust across groups. Their design may have produced this outcome artifactually for reasons that we describe. This paper discusses first the two interpretations of CIs and, hence, why misinterpretation cannot be inferred from endorsement of some of the items. Next, a re-analysis of Hoekstra et al.'s data reveals some puzzling differences between first-year and master students that demand further investigation. For that purpose, we designed a replication study with an extended questionnaire including two additional items that express correct interpretations of CIs (to compare endorsement of correct vs. nominally incorrect interpretations) and we asked master students to indicate which items they would have omitted had they had the option (to distinguish deliberate from uninformed endorsement caused by the forced-response format). Results showed that incognizant first-year students endorsed correct and nominally incorrect items identically, revealing that the two item types are not differentially attractive superficially; in contrast, master students were distinctively more prone to endorsing correct items when their uninformed responses were removed, although they admitted to nescience more often that might have been expected. Implications for teaching practices are discussed. PMID:27458424

Study of FibroTest and hyaluronic acid biological variation in healthy volunteers and comparison of serum hyaluronic acid biological variation between chronic liver diseases of different etiology and fibrotic stage using confidence intervals.

PubMed

Istaces, Nicolas; Gulbis, Béatrice

2015-07-01

Personalized ranges of liver fibrosis serum biomarkers such as FibroTest or hyaluronic acid could be used for early detection of fibrotic changes in patients with progressive chronic liver disease. Our aim was to generate reliable biological variation estimates for these two biomarkers with confidence intervals for within-subject biological variation and reference change value. Nine fasting healthy volunteers and 66 chronic liver disease patients were included. Biological variation estimates were calculated for FibroTest in healthy volunteers, and for hyaluronic acid in healthy volunteers and chronic liver disease patients stratified by etiology and liver fibrosis stage. In healthy volunteers, within-subject biological coefficient of variation (with 95% confidence intervals) and index of individuality were 20% (16%-28%) and 0.6 for FibroTest and 34% (27%-47%) and 0.79 for hyaluronic acid, respectively. Overall hyaluronic acid within-subject biological coefficient of variation was similar among non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and chronic hepatitis C with 41% (34%-52%) and 45% (39%-55%), respectively, in contrast to chronic hepatitis B with 170% (140%-215%). Hyaluronic acid within-subject biological coefficients of variation were similar between F0-F1, F2 and F3 liver fibrosis stages in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease with 34% (25%-49%), 41% (31%-59%) and 34% (23%-62%), respectively, and in chronic hepatitis C with 34% (27%-47%), 33% (26%-45%) and 38% (27%-65%), respectively. However, corresponding hyaluronic acid indexes of individuality were lower in the higher fibrosis stages. Non-overlapping confidence intervals of biological variation estimates allowed us to detect significant differences regarding hyaluronic acid biological variation between chronic liver disease subgroups. Copyright © 2015 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Addressing the vaccine confidence gap.

PubMed

Larson, Heidi J; Cooper, Louis Z; Eskola, Juhani; Katz, Samuel L; Ratzan, Scott

2011-08-06

Vaccines--often lauded as one of the greatest public health interventions--are losing public confidence. Some vaccine experts have referred to this decline in confidence as a crisis. We discuss some of the characteristics of the changing global environment that are contributing to increased public questioning of vaccines, and outline some of the specific determinants of public trust. Public decision making related to vaccine acceptance is neither driven by scientific nor economic evidence alone, but is also driven by a mix of psychological, sociocultural, and political factors, all of which need to be understood and taken into account by policy and other decision makers. Public trust in vaccines is highly variable and building trust depends on understanding perceptions of vaccines and vaccine risks, historical experiences, religious or political affiliations, and socioeconomic status. Although provision of accurate, scientifically based evidence on the risk-benefit ratios of vaccines is crucial, it is not enough to redress the gap between current levels of public confidence in vaccines and levels of trust needed to ensure adequate and sustained vaccine coverage. We call for more research not just on individual determinants of public trust, but on what mix of factors are most likely to sustain public trust. The vaccine community demands rigorous evidence on vaccine efficacy and safety and technical and operational feasibility when introducing a new vaccine, but has been negligent in demanding equally rigorous research to understand the psychological, social, and political factors that affect public trust in vaccines. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

PubMed

Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

2015-10-01

Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

PubMed

Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

2016-01-01

Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

A spreadsheet template compatible with Microsoft Excel and iWork Numbers that returns the simultaneous confidence intervals for all pairwise differences between multiple sample means.

PubMed

Brown, Angus M

2010-04-01

The objective of the method described in this paper is to develop a spreadsheet template for the purpose of comparing multiple sample means. An initial analysis of variance (ANOVA) test on the data returns F--the test statistic. If F is larger than the critical F value drawn from the F distribution at the appropriate degrees of freedom, convention dictates rejection of the null hypothesis and allows subsequent multiple comparison testing to determine where the inequalities between the sample means lie. A variety of multiple comparison methods are described that return the 95% confidence intervals for differences between means using an inclusive pairwise comparison of the sample means. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a national universal coverage campaign of long-lasting insecticidal nets in a rural district in north-west Tanzania.

PubMed

West, Philippa A; Protopopoff, Natacha; Rowland, Mark W; Kirby, Matthew J; Oxborough, Richard M; Mosha, Franklin W; Malima, Robert; Kleinschmidt, Immo

2012-08-10

Insecticide-treated nets (ITN) are one of the most effective measures for preventing malaria. Mass distribution campaigns are being used to rapidly increase net coverage in at-risk populations. This study had two purposes: to evaluate the impact of a universal coverage campaign (UCC) of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) on LLIN ownership and usage, and to identify factors that may be associated with inadequate coverage. In 2011 two cross-sectional household surveys were conducted in 50 clusters in Muleba district, north-west Tanzania. Prior to the UCC 3,246 households were surveyed and 2,499 afterwards. Data on bed net ownership and usage, demographics of household members and household characteristics including factors related to socio-economic status were gathered, using an adapted version of the standard Malaria Indicator Survey. Specific questions relating to the UCC process were asked. The proportion of households with at least one ITN increased from 62.6% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 60.9-64.2) before the UCC to 90.8% (95% CI = 89.0-92.3) afterwards. ITN usage in all residents rose from 40.8% to 55.7%. After the UCC 58.4% (95% CI = 54.7-62.1) of households had sufficient ITNs to cover all their sleeping places. Households with children under five years (OR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.9-2.9) and small households (OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.5-2.4) were most likely to reach universal coverage. Poverty was not associated with net coverage. Eighty percent of households surveyed received LLINs from the campaign. The UCC in Muleba district of Tanzania was equitable, greatly improving LLIN ownership and, more moderately, usage. However, the goal of universal coverage in terms of the adequate provision of nets was not achieved. Multiple, continuous delivery systems and education activities are required to maintain and improve bed net ownership and usage.

Cost-effectiveness of increasing cervical cancer screening coverage in the Middle East: An example from Lebanon.

PubMed

Sharma, Monisha; Seoud, Muhieddine; Kim, Jane J

2017-01-23

Most cervical cancer (CC) cases in Lebanon are detected at later stages and associated with high mortality. There is no national organized CC screening program so screening is opportunistic and limited to women who can pay out-of-pocket. Therefore, a small percentage of women receive repeated screenings while most are under-or never screened. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of increasing screening coverage and extending intervals. We used an individual-based Monte Carlo model simulating HPV and CC natural history and screening. We calibrated the model to epidemiological data from Lebanon, including CC incidence and HPV type distribution. We evaluated cytology and HPV DNA screening for women aged 25-65years, varying coverage from 20 to 70% and frequency from 1 to 5years. At 20% coverage, annual cytologic screening reduced lifetime CC risk by 14% and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of I$80,670/year of life saved (YLS), far exceeding Lebanon's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (I$17,460), a commonly cited cost-effectiveness threshold. By comparison, increasing cytologic screening coverage to 50% and extending screening intervals to 3 and 5years provided greater CC reduction (26.1% and 21.4, respectively) at lower costs compared to 20% coverage with annual screening. Screening every 5years with HPV DNA testing at 50% coverage provided greater CC reductions than cytology at the same frequency (23.4%) and was cost-effective assuming a cost of I$18 per HPV test administered (I$12,210/YLS); HPV DNA testing every 4years at 50% coverage was also cost-effective at the same cost per test (I$16,340). Increasing coverage of annual cytology was not found to be cost-effective. Current practice of repeated cytology in a small percentage of women is inefficient. Increasing coverage to 50% with extended screening intervals provides greater health benefits at a reasonable cost and can more equitably distribute health gains. Novel HPV DNA strategies offer greater

Associations between key intervention coverage and child mortality: an analysis of 241 sub-national regions of sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Akachi, Yoko; Steenland, Maria; Fink, Günther

2017-12-21

Reducing child mortality remains a key objective in the Sustainable Development Goals. Although remarkable progress has been made with respect to under-5 mortality over the last 25 years, little is known regarding the relative contributions of public health interventions and general improvements in socioeconomic status during this time period. We combined all available data from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to construct a longitudinal, multi-level dataset with information on subnational-level key intervention coverage, household socioeconomic status and child health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. The dataset covers 562 896 child records and 769 region-year observations across 24 countries. We used multi-level multivariable logistics regression models to assess the associations between child mortality and changes in the coverage of 17 key reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health interventions such as bednets, water and sanitation infrastructure, vaccination and breastfeeding practices, as well as concurrent improvements in social and economic development. Full vaccination coverage was associated with a 30% decrease in the odds of child mortality [odds ratio (OR) 0.698, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.564, 0.864], and continued breastfeeding was associated with a 24% decrease in the odds of child mortality (OR 0.759, 95% CI 0.642, 0.898). Our results suggest that changes in vaccination coverage, as well as increases in female education and economic development, made the largest contributions to the positive mortality trends observed. Breastfeeding was associated with child survival but accounts for little of the observed declines in mortality due to declining coverage levels during our study period. Our findings suggest that a large amount of progress has been made with respect to coverage levels of key health interventions. Whereas all socioeconomic variables considered appear to strongly predict health outcomes, the same was true only for very

Reliable prediction intervals with regression neural networks.

PubMed

Papadopoulos, Harris; Haralambous, Haris

2011-10-01

This paper proposes an extension to conventional regression neural networks (NNs) for replacing the point predictions they produce with prediction intervals that satisfy a required level of confidence. Our approach follows a novel machine learning framework, called Conformal Prediction (CP), for assigning reliable confidence measures to predictions without assuming anything more than that the data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). We evaluate the proposed method on four benchmark datasets and on the problem of predicting Total Electron Content (TEC), which is an important parameter in trans-ionospheric links; for the latter we use a dataset of more than 60000 TEC measurements collected over a period of 11 years. Our experimental results show that the prediction intervals produced by our method are both well calibrated and tight enough to be useful in practice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The integrated model of sport confidence: a canonical correlation and mediational analysis.

PubMed

Koehn, Stefan; Pearce, Alan J; Morris, Tony

2013-12-01

The main purpose of the study was to examine crucial parts of Vealey's (2001) integrated framework hypothesizing that sport confidence is a mediating variable between sources of sport confidence (including achievement, self-regulation, and social climate) and athletes' affect in competition. The sample consisted of 386 athletes, who completed the Sources of Sport Confidence Questionnaire, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Canonical correlation analysis revealed a confidence-achievement dimension underlying flow. Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals in AMOS 20.0 were used in examining mediation effects between source domains and dispositional flow. Results showed that sport confidence partially mediated the relationship between achievement and self-regulation domains and flow, whereas no significant mediation was found for social climate. On a subscale level, full mediation models emerged for achievement and flow dimensions of challenge-skills balance, clear goals, and concentration on the task at hand.

The impact of sanitation interventions on latrine coverage and latrine use: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Garn, Joshua V; Sclar, Gloria D; Freeman, Matthew C; Penakalapati, Gauthami; Alexander, Kelly T; Brooks, Patrick; Rehfuess, Eva A; Boisson, Sophie; Medlicott, Kate O; Clasen, Thomas F

2017-04-01

An estimated 2.4 billion people still lack access to improved sanitation and 946 million still practice open defecation. The World Health Organization (WHO) commissioned this review to assess the impact of sanitation on coverage and use, as part of its effort to develop a set of guidelines on sanitation and health. We systematically reviewed the literature and used meta-analysis to quantitatively characterize how different sanitation interventions impact latrine coverage and use. We also assessed both qualitative and quantitative studies to understand how different structural and design characteristics of sanitation are associated with individual latrine use. A total of 64 studies met our eligibility criteria. Of 27 intervention studies that reported on household latrine coverage and provided a point estimate with confidence interval, the average increase in coverage was 14% (95% CI: 10%, 19%). The intervention types with the largest absolute increases in coverage included the Indian government's "Total Sanitation Campaign" (27%; 95% CI: 14%, 39%), latrine subsidy/provision interventions (16%; 95% CI: 8%, 24%), latrine subsidy/provision interventions that also incorporated education components (17%; 95% CI: -5%, 38%), sewerage interventions (14%; 95% CI: 1%, 28%), sanitation education interventions (14%; 95% CI: 3%, 26%), and community-led total sanitation interventions (12%; 95% CI: -2%, 27%). Of 10 intervention studies that reported on household latrine use, the average increase was 13% (95% CI: 4%, 21%). The sanitation interventions and contexts in which they were implemented varied, leading to high heterogeneity across studies. We found 24 studies that examined the association between structural and design characteristics of sanitation facilities and facility use. These studies reported that better maintenance, accessibility, privacy, facility type, cleanliness, newer latrines, and better hygiene access were all frequently associated with higher use, whereas

Affordable Care Act Qualified Health Plan Coverage: Association With Improved HIV Viral Suppression for AIDS Drug Assistance Program Clients in a Medicaid Nonexpansion State

PubMed Central

McManus, Kathleen A.; Rhodes, Anne; Bailey, Steven; Yerkes, Lauren; Engelhard, Carolyn L.; Ingersoll, Karen S.; Stukenborg, George J.; Dillingham, Rebecca

2016-01-01

Background. With the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, many state AIDS Drug Assistance Programs (ADAPs) shifted their healthcare delivery model from direct medication provision to purchasing qualified health plans (QHPs). The objective of this study was to characterize the demographic and healthcare delivery factors associated with Virginia ADAP clients' QHP enrollment and to assess the relationship between QHP coverage and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral suppression. Methods. The cohort included persons living with HIV who were enrolled in the Virginia ADAP (n = 3933). Data were collected from 1 January 2013 through 31 December 2014. Multivariable binary logistic regression was conducted to assess for associations with QHP enrollment and between QHP coverage and viral load (VL) suppression. Results. In the cohort, 47.1% enrolled in QHPs, and enrollment varied significantly based on demographic and healthcare delivery factors. In multivariable binary logistic regression, controlling for time, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and region, factors significantly associated with achieving HIV viral suppression included QHP coverage (adjusted odds ratio, 1.346; 95% confidence interval, 1.041–1.740; P = .02), an initially undetectable VL (2.809; 2.174–3.636; P < .001), HIV rather than AIDS disease status (1.377; 1.049–1.808; P = .02), and HIV clinic (P < .001). Conclusions. QHP coverage was associated with viral suppression, an essential outcome for individuals and for public health. Promoting QHP coverage in clinics that provide care to persons living with HIV may offer a new opportunity to increase rates of viral suppression. PMID:27143661

Xenogenic collagen matrix or autologous connective tissue graft as adjunct to coronally advanced flaps for coverage of multiple adjacent gingival recession: Randomized trial assessing non-inferiority in root coverage and superiority in oral health-related quality of life.

PubMed

Tonetti, Maurizio S; Cortellini, Pierpaolo; Pellegrini, Gaia; Nieri, Michele; Bonaccini, Daniele; Allegri, Mario; Bouchard, Philippe; Cairo, Francesco; Conforti, Gianpaolo; Fourmousis, Ioannis; Graziani, Filippo; Guerrero, Adrian; Halben, Jan; Malet, Jacques; Rasperini, Giulio; Topoll, Heinz; Wachtel, Hannes; Wallkamm, Beat; Zabalegui, Ion; Zuhr, Otto

2018-01-01

To evaluate the non-inferiority of the adjunct of a xenogeneic collagen matrix (CMX) or connective tissue graft (CTG) to coronally advanced flaps (CAF) for coverage of multiple adjacent recessions and compare superiority in patient-reported outcomes (PROM). One hundred and eighty-seven subjects (92 CMX) with 485 recessions in 14 centres were randomized and followed up for 6 months. Patients filled daily diaries for 15 days to monitor patient-reported experience. The primary outcome was changed in position of the gingival margin. Multilevel analysis used centre, subject and tooth as levels and baseline parameters as covariates. Average baseline recession was 2.5 ± 1.0 mm. The surgery was 15.7 min shorter (95%CI from 11.9 to 19.6, p < .0001) and perceived lighter (11.9 VAS units, 95%CI from 4.6 to 19.1, p = .0014) in CMX subjects. Time to recovery was 1.8 days shorter in CMX. Six-month root coverage was 1.7 ± 1.1 mm for CMX and 2.1 ± 1.0 mm for CTG (difference of 0.44 mm, 95%CI from 0.25 to 0.63 mm). The upper limit of the confidence interval was over the non-inferiority margin of 0.25 mm. Odds of complete root coverage were significantly higher for CTG (OR = 4.0, 95% CI 1.8-8.8). Replacing CTG with CMX shortens time to recovery and decreases morbidity, but the tested generation of devices is probably inferior to autologous CTG in terms of root coverage. Significant variability in PROMs was observed among centres. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Clinical Periodontology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Contraceptive confidence and timing of first birth in Moldova: an event history analysis of retrospective data.

PubMed

Lyons-Amos, Mark; Padmadas, Sabu S; Durrant, Gabriele B

2014-08-11

To test the contraceptive confidence hypothesis in a modern context. The hypothesis is that women using effective or modern contraceptive methods have increased contraceptive confidence and hence a shorter interval between marriage and first birth than users of ineffective or traditional methods. We extend the hypothesis to incorporate the role of abortion, arguing that it acts as a substitute for contraception in the study context. Moldova, a country in South-East Europe. Moldova exhibits high use of traditional contraceptive methods and abortion compared with other European countries. Data are from a secondary analysis of the 2005 Moldovan Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative sample survey. 5377 unmarried women were selected. The outcome measure was the interval between marriage and first birth. This was modelled using a piecewise-constant hazard regression, with abortion and contraceptive method types as primary variables along with relevant sociodemographic controls. Women with high contraceptive confidence (modern method users) have a higher cumulative hazard of first birth 36 months following marriage (0.88 (0.87 to 0.89)) compared with women with low contraceptive confidence (traditional method users, cumulative hazard: 0.85 (0.84 to 0.85)). This is consistent with the contraceptive confidence hypothesis. There is a higher cumulative hazard of first birth among women with low (0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)) and moderate abortion propensities (0.76 (0.75 to 0.77)) than women with no abortion propensity (0.73 (0.72 to 0.74)) 24 months after marriage. Effective contraceptive use tends to increase contraceptive confidence and is associated with a shorter interval between marriage and first birth. Increased use of abortion also tends to increase contraceptive confidence and shorten birth duration, although this effect is non-linear-women with a very high use of abortion tend to have lengthy intervals between marriage and first birth. Published by

Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

2013-01-01

Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

Exact one-sided confidence bounds for the risk ratio in 2 x 2 tables with structural zero.

PubMed

Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

2007-12-01

This paper examines exact one-sided confidence limits for the risk ratio in a 2 x 2 table with structural zero. Starting with four approximate lower and upper limits, we adjust each using the algorithm of Buehler (1957) to arrive at lower (upper) limits that have exact coverage properties and are as large (small) as possible subject to coverage, as well as an ordering, constraint. Different Buehler limits are compared by their mean size, since all are exact in their coverage. Buehler limits based on the signed root likelihood ratio statistic are found to have the best performance and recommended for practical use. (c) 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Bootstrap Signal-to-Noise Confidence Intervals: An Objective Method for Subject Exclusion and Quality Control in ERP Studies

PubMed Central

Parks, Nathan A.; Gannon, Matthew A.; Long, Stephanie M.; Young, Madeleine E.

2016-01-01

Analysis of event-related potential (ERP) data includes several steps to ensure that ERPs meet an appropriate level of signal quality. One such step, subject exclusion, rejects subject data if ERP waveforms fail to meet an appropriate level of signal quality. Subject exclusion is an important quality control step in the ERP analysis pipeline as it ensures that statistical inference is based only upon those subjects exhibiting clear evoked brain responses. This critical quality control step is most often performed simply through visual inspection of subject-level ERPs by investigators. Such an approach is qualitative, subjective, and susceptible to investigator bias, as there are no standards as to what constitutes an ERP of sufficient signal quality. Here, we describe a standardized and objective method for quantifying waveform quality in individual subjects and establishing criteria for subject exclusion. The approach uses bootstrap resampling of ERP waveforms (from a pool of all available trials) to compute a signal-to-noise ratio confidence interval (SNR-CI) for individual subject waveforms. The lower bound of this SNR-CI (SNRLB) yields an effective and objective measure of signal quality as it ensures that ERP waveforms statistically exceed a desired signal-to-noise criterion. SNRLB provides a quantifiable metric of individual subject ERP quality and eliminates the need for subjective evaluation of waveform quality by the investigator. We detail the SNR-CI methodology, establish the efficacy of employing this approach with Monte Carlo simulations, and demonstrate its utility in practice when applied to ERP datasets. PMID:26903849

Microvascular anastomosis simulation using a chicken thigh model: Interval versus massed training.

PubMed

Schoeff, Stephen; Hernandez, Brian; Robinson, Derek J; Jameson, Mark J; Shonka, David C

2017-11-01

To compare the effectiveness of massed versus interval training when teaching otolaryngology residents microvascular suturing on a validated microsurgical model. Otolaryngology residents were placed into interval (n = 7) or massed (n = 7) training groups. The interval group performed three separate 30-minute practice sessions separated by at least 1 week, and the massed group performed a single 90-minute practice session. Both groups viewed a video demonstration and recorded a pretest prior to the first training session. A post-test was administered following the last practice session. At an academic medical center, 14 otolaryngology residents were assigned using stratified randomization to interval or massed training. Blinded evaluators graded performance using a validated microvascular Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill tool. The tool is comprised of two major components: task-specific score (TSS) and global rating scale (GRS). Participants also received pre- and poststudy surveys to compare subjective confidence in multiple aspects of microvascular skill acquisition. Overall, all residents showed increased TSS and GRS on post- versus pretest. After completion of training, the interval group had a statistically significant increase in both TSS and GRS, whereas the massed group's increase was not significant. Residents in both groups reported significantly increased levels of confidence after completion of the study. Self-directed learning using a chicken thigh artery model may benefit microsurgical skills, competence, and confidence for resident surgeons. Interval training results in significant improvement in early development of microvascular anastomosis skills, whereas massed training does not. NA. Laryngoscope, 127:2490-2494, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Estimation of parameters of dose volume models and their confidence limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Luijk, P.; Delvigne, T. C.; Schilstra, C.; Schippers, J. M.

2003-07-01

Predictions of the normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) for the ranking of treatment plans are based on fits of dose-volume models to clinical and/or experimental data. In the literature several different fit methods are used. In this work frequently used methods and techniques to fit NTCP models to dose response data for establishing dose-volume effects, are discussed. The techniques are tested for their usability with dose-volume data and NTCP models. Different methods to estimate the confidence intervals of the model parameters are part of this study. From a critical-volume (CV) model with biologically realistic parameters a primary dataset was generated, serving as the reference for this study and describable by the NTCP model. The CV model was fitted to this dataset. From the resulting parameters and the CV model, 1000 secondary datasets were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. All secondary datasets were fitted to obtain 1000 parameter sets of the CV model. Thus the 'real' spread in fit results due to statistical spreading in the data is obtained and has been compared with estimates of the confidence intervals obtained by different methods applied to the primary dataset. The confidence limits of the parameters of one dataset were estimated using the methods, employing the covariance matrix, the jackknife method and directly from the likelihood landscape. These results were compared with the spread of the parameters, obtained from the secondary parameter sets. For the estimation of confidence intervals on NTCP predictions, three methods were tested. Firstly, propagation of errors using the covariance matrix was used. Secondly, the meaning of the width of a bundle of curves that resulted from parameters that were within the one standard deviation region in the likelihood space was investigated. Thirdly, many parameter sets and their likelihood were used to create a likelihood-weighted probability distribution of the NTCP. It is concluded that for the

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Emergency Department Coverage by Primary Care Physicians in a Rural Practice-Based Research Network: Incentives, Confidence, and Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lew, Edward; Fagnan, Lyle J.; Mattek, Nora; Mahler, Jo; Lowe, Robert A.

2009-01-01

Context: In rural areas of the United States, emergency departments (EDs) are often staffed by primary care physicians, as contrasted to urban and suburban hospitals where ED coverage is usually provided by physicians who are residency-trained in emergency medicine. Purpose: This study examines the reasons and incentives for rural Oregon primary…

Income-related inequality in health insurance coverage: analysis of China Health and Nutrition Survey of 2006 and 2009

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction China introduced the urban resident basic medical insurance (URBMI) in 2007 to cover children and urban unemployed adults, in addition to the new cooperative medical scheme (NCMS) for rural residents in 2003 and the basic health insurance scheme (BHIS) for urban employees in 1998. This study examined whether the overall income-related inequality in health insurance coverage improved during 2006 and 2009 in China. Methods The China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data of 2006 and 2009 were used to create the concentration curve and the concentration index. GEE logistic regression was used to model the health insurance coverage as dependent variable and household income per capita as independent variable, controlling for individuals' age, gender, marital status, educational attainment, employment status, year 2009 (Y2009), household size, retirement status, and geographic variations. The change in the income-related inequality in 2009 was estimated using the interaction term of income*Y2009. Results In 2006, 49.7% (4,712/9,476) respondents had health insurance: 13.4% with BHIS and 28.4% with NCMS. In 2009, 90.8% (8,964/9,863) had health insurance: 10.1% with URBMI, 18.3% with BHIS, and 57.6% with NCMS. The BHIS, URBMI, and NCMS programs had different patterns of population coverage over 10 income deciles. The concentration index was 0.15 in 2006 and 0.04 in 2009. The dominance test showed that the concentration curves were significantly different between 2006 and 2009 (p < 0.05). An income increase per capita by 10,000 RMB was associated with 25.5% more likely to have health insurance coverage (odds ratio = 1.255, 95% confidence interval: [1.130-1.393]). In 2009, there was significant improvement in the income-related inequality (p < 0.001). Discussions Comparing 2009 to 2006, the income inequality in health insurance coverage was largely corrected in China through rapid expansion of CHNS in rural areas and initiation of URBMI in urban

Income-related inequality in health insurance coverage: analysis of China Health and Nutrition Survey of 2006 and 2009.

PubMed

Liu, Jinan; Shi, Lizheng; Meng, Qingyue; Khan, M Mahmud

2012-08-14

China introduced the urban resident basic medical insurance (URBMI) in 2007 to cover children and urban unemployed adults, in addition to the new cooperative medical scheme (NCMS) for rural residents in 2003 and the basic health insurance scheme (BHIS) for urban employees in 1998. This study examined whether the overall income-related inequality in health insurance coverage improved during 2006 and 2009 in China. The China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data of 2006 and 2009 were used to create the concentration curve and the concentration index. GEE logistic regression was used to model the health insurance coverage as dependent variable and household income per capita as independent variable, controlling for individuals' age, gender, marital status, educational attainment, employment status, year 2009 (Y2009), household size, retirement status, and geographic variations. The change in the income-related inequality in 2009 was estimated using the interaction term of income*Y2009. In 2006, 49.7% (4,712/9,476) respondents had health insurance: 13.4% with BHIS and 28.4% with NCMS. In 2009, 90.8% (8,964/9,863) had health insurance: 10.1% with URBMI, 18.3% with BHIS, and 57.6% with NCMS. The BHIS, URBMI, and NCMS programs had different patterns of population coverage over 10 income deciles. The concentration index was 0.15 in 2006 and 0.04 in 2009. The dominance test showed that the concentration curves were significantly different between 2006 and 2009 (p < 0.05). An income increase per capita by 10,000 RMB was associated with 25.5% more likely to have health insurance coverage (odds ratio = 1.255, 95% confidence interval: [1.130-1.393]). In 2009, there was significant improvement in the income-related inequality (p < 0.001). Comparing 2009 to 2006, the income inequality in health insurance coverage was largely corrected in China through rapid expansion of CHNS in rural areas and initiation of URBMI in urban areas.

Rotavirus vaccine coverage and factors associated with uptake using linked data: Ontario, Canada

PubMed Central

Chung, Hannah; Schwartz, Kevin L.; Guttmann, Astrid; Deeks, Shelley L.; Kwong, Jeffrey C.; Crowcroft, Natasha S.; Wing, Laura; Tu, Karen

2018-01-01

Background In August 2011, Ontario, Canada introduced a rotavirus immunization program using Rotarix™ vaccine. No assessments of rotavirus vaccine coverage have been previously conducted in Ontario. Methods We assessed vaccine coverage (series initiation and completion) and factors associated with uptake using the Electronic Medical Record Administrative data Linked Database (EMRALD), a collection of family physician electronic medical records (EMR) linked to health administrative data. Series initiation (1 dose) and series completion (2 doses) before and after the program’s introduction were calculated. To identify factors associated with series initiation and completion, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated using logistic regression. Results A total of 12,525 children were included. Series completion increased each year of the program (73%, 79% and 84%, respectively). Factors associated with series initiation included high continuity of care (aOR = 2.15; 95%CI, 1.61–2.87), maternal influenza vaccination (aOR = 1.55; 95%CI,1.24–1.93), maternal immmigration to Canada in the last five years (aOR = 1.47; 95% CI, 1.05–2.04), and having no siblings (aOR = 1.62; 95%CI,1.30–2.03). Relative to the first program year, infants were more likely to initiate the series in the second year (aOR = 1.71; 95% CI 1.39–2.10) and third year (aOR = 2.02; 95% CI 1.56–2.61) of the program. Infants receiving care from physicians with large practices were less likely to initiate the series (aOR 0.91; 95%CI, 0.88–0.94, per 100 patients rostered) and less likely to complete the series (aOR 0.94; 95%CI, 0.91–0.97, per 100 patients rostered). Additional associations were identified for series completion. Conclusions Family physician delivery achieved moderately high coverage in the program’s first three years. This assessment demonstrates the usefulness of EMR data for evaluating vaccine coverage. Important insights into factors

Predictor sort sampling and one-sided confidence bounds on quantiles

Treesearch

Steve Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; David W. Green

2002-01-01

Predictor sort experiments attempt to make use of the correlation between a predictor that can be measured prior to the start of an experiment and the response variable that we are investigating. Properly designed and analyzed, they can reduce necessary sample sizes, increase statistical power, and reduce the lengths of confidence intervals. However, if the non- random...

Confidence estimation for quantitative photoacoustic imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gröhl, Janek; Kirchner, Thomas; Maier-Hein, Lena

2018-02-01

Quantification of photoacoustic (PA) images is one of the major challenges currently being addressed in PA research. Tissue properties can be quantified by correcting the recorded PA signal with an estimation of the corresponding fluence. Fluence estimation itself, however, is an ill-posed inverse problem which usually needs simplifying assumptions to be solved with state-of-the-art methods. These simplifications, as well as noise and artifacts in PA images reduce the accuracy of quantitative PA imaging (PAI). This reduction in accuracy is often localized to image regions where the assumptions do not hold true. This impedes the reconstruction of functional parameters when averaging over entire regions of interest (ROI). Averaging over a subset of voxels with a high accuracy would lead to an improved estimation of such parameters. To achieve this, we propose a novel approach to the local estimation of confidence in quantitative reconstructions of PA images. It makes use of conditional probability densities to estimate confidence intervals alongside the actual quantification. It encapsulates an estimation of the errors introduced by fluence estimation as well as signal noise. We validate the approach using Monte Carlo generated data in combination with a recently introduced machine learning-based approach to quantitative PAI. Our experiments show at least a two-fold improvement in quantification accuracy when evaluating on voxels with high confidence instead of thresholding signal intensity.

Five-band microwave radiometer system for noninvasive brain temperature measurement in newborn babies: Phantom experiment and confidence interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiura, T.; Hirata, H.; Hand, J. W.; van Leeuwen, J. M. J.; Mizushina, S.

2011-10-01

Clinical trials of hypothermic brain treatment for newborn babies are currently hindered by the difficulty in measuring deep brain temperatures. As one of the possible methods for noninvasive and continuous temperature monitoring that is completely passive and inherently safe is passive microwave radiometry (MWR). We have developed a five-band microwave radiometer system with a single dual-polarized, rectangular waveguide antenna operating within the 1-4 GHz range and a method for retrieving the temperature profile from five radiometric brightness temperatures. This paper addresses (1) the temperature calibration for five microwave receivers, (2) the measurement experiment using a phantom model that mimics the temperature profile in a newborn baby, and (3) the feasibility for noninvasive monitoring of deep brain temperatures. Temperature resolutions were 0.103, 0.129, 0.138, 0.105 and 0.111 K for 1.2, 1.65, 2.3, 3.0 and 3.6 GHz receivers, respectively. The precision of temperature estimation (2σ confidence interval) was about 0.7°C at a 5-cm depth from the phantom surface. Accuracy, which is the difference between the estimated temperature using this system and the measured temperature by a thermocouple at a depth of 5 cm, was about 2°C. The current result is not satisfactory for clinical application because the clinical requirement for accuracy must be better than 1°C for both precision and accuracy at a depth of 5 cm. Since a couple of possible causes for this inaccuracy have been identified, we believe that the system can take a step closer to the clinical application of MWR for hypothermic rescue treatment.

Impact of statin related media coverage on use of statins: interrupted time series analysis with UK primary care data.

PubMed

Matthews, Anthony; Herrett, Emily; Gasparrini, Antonio; Van Staa, Tjeerd; Goldacre, Ben; Smeeth, Liam; Bhaskaran, Krishnan

2016-06-28

 To quantify how a period of intense media coverage of controversy over the risk:benefit balance of statins affected their use.  Interrupted time series analysis of prospectively collected electronic data from primary care.  Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in the United Kingdom.  Patients newly eligible for or currently taking statins for primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention in each month in January 2011-March 2015.  Adjusted odds ratios for starting/stopping taking statins after the media coverage (October 2013-March 2014).  There was no evidence that the period of high media coverage was associated with changes in statin initiation among patients with a high recorded risk score for cardiovascular disease (primary prevention) or a recent cardiovascular event (secondary prevention) (odds ratio 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.13; P=0.92) and 1.04 (0.92 to 1.18; P=0.54), respectively), though there was a decrease in the overall proportion of patients with a recorded risk score. Patients already taking statins were more likely to stop taking them for both primary and secondary prevention after the high media coverage period (1.11 (1.05 to 1.18; P<0.001) and 1.12 (1.04 to 1.21; P=0.003), respectively). Stratified analyses showed that older patients and those with a longer continuous prescription were more likely to stop taking statins after the media coverage. In post hoc analyses, the increased rates of cessation were no longer observed after six months.  A period of intense public discussion over the risks:benefit balance of statins, covered widely in the media, was followed by a transient rise in the proportion of people who stopped taking statins. This research highlights the potential for widely covered health stories in the lay media to impact on healthcare related behaviour. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Exact one-sided confidence limits for the difference between two correlated proportions.

PubMed

Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

2007-08-15

We construct exact and optimal one-sided upper and lower confidence bounds for the difference between two probabilities based on matched binary pairs using well-established optimality theory of Buehler. Starting with five different approximate lower and upper limits, we adjust them to have coverage probability exactly equal to the desired nominal level and then compare the resulting exact limits by their mean size. Exact limits based on the signed root likelihood ratio statistic are preferred and recommended for practical use.

A pragmatic, randomized, controlled study evaluating the impact of access to smoking cessation pharmacotherapy coverage on the proportion of successful quitters in a Canadian population of smokers motivated to quit (ACCESSATION).

PubMed

Selby, Peter; Brosky, Gerald; Oh, Paul; Raymond, Vincent; Arteaga, Carmen; Ranger, Suzanne

2014-05-07

Many smokers find the cost of smoking cessation medications a barrier. Financial coverage for these medications increases utilization of pharmacotherapies. This study assesses whether financial coverage increases the proportion of successful quitters. A pragmatic, open-label, randomized, controlled trial was conducted in 58 Canadian sites between March 2009 and September 2010. Smokers (≥10 cigarettes/day) without insurance coverage who were motivated to quit within 14 days were randomized (1:1) in a blinded manner to receive either full coverage eligibility for 26 weeks or no coverage. Pharmacotherapies covered were varenicline, bupropion, or nicotine patches/gum. Investigators/subjects were unblinded to study group assignment after randomization and prior to choosing a smoking cessation method(s). All subjects received brief smoking cessation counseling. The primary outcome measure was self-reported 7-day point prevalence of abstinence (PPA) at week 26. Of the 1380 randomized subjects (coverage, 696; no coverage, 684), 682 (98.0%) and 435 (63.6%), respectively, were dispensed at least one smoking cessation medication dose. The 7-day PPA at week 26 was higher in the full coverage versus no coverage group: 20.8% (n = 145) and 13.9% (n = 95), respectively; odds ratio (OR) = 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-2.18; p = 0.001. Urine cotinine-confirmed 7-day PPA at week 26 was 15.7% (n = 109) and 10.1% (n = 69), respectively; OR = 1.68, 95% CI 1.21-2.33; p = 0.002. After pharmacotherapy, coverage eligibility was withdrawn from the full coverage group, continuous abstinence between weeks 26 and 52 was 6.6% (n = 46) and 5.6% (n = 38), in the full coverage and no coverage groups, respectively; OR = 1.19, 95% CI 0.76-1.87; p = 0.439. In this study, the adoption of a smoking cessation medication coverage drug policy was an effective intervention to improve 26-week quit rates in Canada. The advantages were lost once

The influence of interpregnancy interval on infant mortality.

PubMed

McKinney, David; House, Melissa; Chen, Aimin; Muglia, Louis; DeFranco, Emily

2017-03-01

-<6 months (adjusted relative risk, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.49) followed by interpregnancy intervals of 6-<12 months (adjusted relative risk, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.30). Analysis stratified by maternal race revealed similar findings. Attributable risk calculation showed that 24.2% of infant mortalities following intervals of 0-<6 months and 14.1% with intervals of 6-<12 months are attributable to the short interpregnancy interval. By avoiding short interpregnancy intervals of ≤12 months we estimate that in the state of Ohio 31 infant mortalities (20 white and 8 black) per year could have been prevented and the infant mortality rate could have been reduced from 7.2-7.0 during this time frame. An interpregnancy interval of 12-60 months (1-5 years) between birth and conception of next pregnancy is associated with lowest risk of infant mortality. Public health initiatives and provider counseling to optimize birth spacing has the potential to significantly reduce infant mortality for both white and black mothers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

PubMed

Gilkey, Melissa B; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Magnus, Brooke E; Reiter, Paul L; Dempsey, Amanda F; Brewer, Noel T

2016-01-01

To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents. We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status. A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15%) or delay (27%). Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63) as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86). Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68), varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66), and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42). Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

Coverage of hospital-based cataract surgery and barriers to the uptake of surgery among cataract blind persons in nigeria: the Nigeria National Blindness and Visual Impairment Survey.

PubMed

Abubakar, Tafida; Gudlavalleti, Murthy V S; Sivasubramaniam, Selvaraj; Gilbert, Clare E; Abdull, Mohammed M; Imam, Abdullahi U

2012-04-01

To determine cataract surgical coverage, and barriers to modern cataract surgery in Nigeria. Multistage stratified cluster random sampling was used to identify a nationally representative sample of 15,027 persons aged 40+ years. All underwent visual acuity testing, frequency doubling technology visual field testing, autorefraction, and measurement of best corrected vision if <6/12 in one or both eyes. An ophthalmologist examined the anterior segment and fundus through an undilated pupil for all participants. Participants were examined by a second ophthalmologist using a slit lamp and dilated fundus examination using a 90 diopter condensing lens if vision was <6/12 in one or both eyes, there were optic disc changes suggestive of glaucoma, and 1 in 7 participants regardless of findings. All those who had undergone cataract surgery were asked where and when this had taken place. Individuals who were severely visually impaired or blind from unoperated cataract were asked to explain why they had not undergone surgery. A total of 13,591 participants were examined (response rate 89.9%). Prevalence of cataract surgery was 1.6% (95% confidence interval 1.4-1.8), significantly higher among those aged ≥70 years. Cataract surgical coverage (persons) in Nigeria was 38.3%. Coverage was 1.7 times higher among males than females. Coverage was only 9.1% among women in the South-South geopolitical zone. Over one third of those who were cataract blind said they could not afford surgery (36%). Cataract surgical coverage in Nigeria was among the lowest in the world. Urgent initiatives are necessary to improve surgical output and access to surgery.

Tunneling procedure for root coverage using acellular dermal matrix: a case series.

PubMed

Modaressi, Marmar; Wang, Hom-Lay

2009-08-01

This study was designed to demonstrate the use of the relatively novel tunneling technique for root coverage with acellular dermal matrix (ADM) to treat Miller Class I and II gingival recession defects. Five subjects with two to five adjacent buccal gingival recession defects were treated with ADM using the tunneling technique for root coverage. A calibrated, blinded examiner measured clinical parameters, including probing depth, clinical attachment level, width of keratinized tissue, recession depth, recession width at 1 mm apical to the cementoenamel junction, gingival tissue thickness at 1 mm and 3 mm apical to the gingival margin, Plaque Index, Gingival Index, and Wound Healing Index, at different time intervals. Patient discomfort was recorded 14 days postoperatively, and an overall quality assessment was recorded 180 days postoperatively. Results showed an average of 61% defect coverage (equal to 93.5% root coverage), and a 0.15-mm gain in tissue thickness was achieved 1 year postoperatively. This suggested that root coverage with ADM using the tunneling technique can be a viable alternative to traditional techniques, especially for multiple recession defects in maxillary premolar and anterior teeth.

Impact of disguise on identification decisions and confidence with simultaneous and sequential lineups.

PubMed

Mansour, Jamal K; Beaudry, Jennifer L; Bertrand, Michelle I; Kalmet, Natalie; Melsom, Elisabeth I; Lindsay, Roderick C L

2012-12-01

Prior research indicates that disguise negatively affects lineup identifications, but the mechanisms by which disguise works have not been explored, and different disguises have not been compared. In two experiments (Ns = 87 and 91) we manipulated degree of coverage by two different types of disguise: a stocking mask or sunglasses and toque (i.e., knitted hat). Participants viewed mock-crime videos followed by simultaneous or sequential lineups. Disguise and lineup type did not interact. In support of the view that disguise prevents encoding, identification accuracy generally decreased with degree of disguise. For the stocking disguise, however, full and 2/3 coverage led to approximately the same rate of correct identifications--which suggests that disrupting encoding of specific features may be as detrimental as disrupting a whole face. Accuracy was most affected by sunglasses and we discuss the role metacognitions may have played. Lineup selections decreased more slowly than accuracy as coverage by disguise increased, indicating witnesses are insensitive to the effect of encoding conditions on accuracy. We also explored the impact of disguise and lineup type on witnesses' confidence in their lineup decisions, though the results were not straightforward.

[Coverage of cervical cancer screening in Catalonia, Spain (2008-2011)].

PubMed

Rodríguez-Salés, Vanesa; Roura, Esther; Ibáñez, Raquel; Peris, Mercè; Bosch, F Xavier; Coma E, Ermengol; Silvia de Sanjosé

2014-01-01

To estimate cervical cytology coverage for the period 2008-2011 by age groups and health regions from data recorded in the medical records of women attending centers within the Catalan national health system. The data used to estimate coverage were obtained from the primary care information system. This information was anonymous and included age, center, date, and the results of cytological smears for a total of 2,292,564 women aged 15 years or more. A total of 758,690 smears were performed in 595,868 women. Among women aged 25-65 years, the estimated coverage was 32.4% of the assigned population and was 40.8% in the population attended. Geographical variation was observed, with higher coverage among health regions closer to Barcelona. Abnormal Pap smears increased slightly from 2008 to 2011 (from 3% to 3.5%, respectively, p <0.001). In women with a negative first smear, the mean interval until the second smear was 2.4 years, but only 50% of women with a negative first smear in 2008 attended a second round during the study period. Cervical screening coverage in the National Health Service of Catalonia includes one in three women. Second round participation was poor. Existing computer systems in primary care centers can ensure monitoring of population-based screening programs for cervical cancer. These systems could be used to plan an organized screening program to ensure wider coverage and better follow-up. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines

PubMed Central

Gilkey, Melissa B.; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Magnus, Brooke E.; Reiter, Paul L.; Dempsey, Amanda F.; Brewer, Noel T.

2016-01-01

Objective To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents. Methods We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children’s vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents’ mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status. Results A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15%) or delay (27%). Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54–0.63) as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76–0.86). Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40–1.68), varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42–1.66), and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23–1.42). Conclusions Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children. PMID:27391098

Improving equity in health care financing in China during the progression towards Universal Health Coverage.

PubMed

Chen, Mingsheng; Palmer, Andrew J; Si, Lei

2017-12-29

China is reforming the way it finances health care as it moves towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) after the failure of market-oriented mechanisms for health care. Improving financing equity is a major policy goal of health care system during the progression towards universal coverage. We used progressivity analysis and dominance test to evaluate the financing channels of general taxation, pubic health insurance, and out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. In 2012 a survey of 8854 individuals in 3008 households recorded the socioeconomic and demographic status, and health care payments of those households. The overall Kakwani index (KI) of China's health care financing system is 0.0444. For general tax KI was -0.0241 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.0315 to -0.0166). The indices for public health schemes (Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance, Urban Resident's Basic Medical Insurance, New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme) were respectively 0.1301 (95% CI: 0.1008 to 0.1594), -0.1737 (95% CI: -0.2166 to -0.1308), and -0.5598 (95% CI: -0.5830 to -0.5365); and for OOP payments KI was 0.0896 (95%CI: 0.0345 to 0.1447). OOP payments are still the dominant part of China's health care finance system. China's health care financing system is not really equitable. Reducing the proportion of indirect taxes would considerably improve health care financing equity. The flat-rate contribution mechanism is not recommended for use in public health insurance schemes, and more attention should be given to optimizing benefit packages during China's progression towards UHC.

The Confidence-Accuracy Relationship for Eyewitness Identification Decisions: Effects of Exposure Duration, Retention Interval, and Divided Attention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, Matthew A.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

2013-01-01

Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the…

Trends in P Value, Confidence Interval, and Power Analysis Reporting in Health Professions Education Research Reports: A Systematic Appraisal.

PubMed

Abbott, Eduardo F; Serrano, Valentina P; Rethlefsen, Melissa L; Pandian, T K; Naik, Nimesh D; West, Colin P; Pankratz, V Shane; Cook, David A

2018-02-01

To characterize reporting of P values, confidence intervals (CIs), and statistical power in health professions education research (HPER) through manual and computerized analysis of published research reports. The authors searched PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL in May 2016, for comparative research studies. For manual analysis of abstracts and main texts, they randomly sampled 250 HPER reports published in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015, and 100 biomedical research reports published in 1985 and 2015. Automated computerized analysis of abstracts included all HPER reports published 1970-2015. In the 2015 HPER sample, P values were reported in 69/100 abstracts and 94 main texts. CIs were reported in 6 abstracts and 22 main texts. Most P values (≥77%) were ≤.05. Across all years, 60/164 two-group HPER studies had ≥80% power to detect a between-group difference of 0.5 standard deviations. From 1985 to 2015, the proportion of HPER abstracts reporting a CI did not change significantly (odds ratio [OR] 2.87; 95% CI 1.04, 7.88) whereas that of main texts reporting a CI increased (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.39, 2.78). Comparison with biomedical studies revealed similar reporting of P values, but more frequent use of CIs in biomedicine. Automated analysis of 56,440 HPER abstracts found 14,867 (26.3%) reporting a P value, 3,024 (5.4%) reporting a CI, and increased reporting of P values and CIs from 1970 to 2015. P values are ubiquitous in HPER, CIs are rarely reported, and most studies are underpowered. Most reported P values would be considered statistically significant.

Small sample mediation testing: misplaced confidence in bootstrapped confidence intervals.

PubMed

Koopman, Joel; Howe, Michael; Hollenbeck, John R; Sin, Hock-Peng

2015-01-01

Bootstrapping is an analytical tool commonly used in psychology to test the statistical significance of the indirect effect in mediation models. Bootstrapping proponents have particularly advocated for its use for samples of 20-80 cases. This advocacy has been heeded, especially in the Journal of Applied Psychology, as researchers are increasingly utilizing bootstrapping to test mediation with samples in this range. We discuss reasons to be concerned with this escalation, and in a simulation study focused specifically on this range of sample sizes, we demonstrate not only that bootstrapping has insufficient statistical power to provide a rigorous hypothesis test in most conditions but also that bootstrapping has a tendency to exhibit an inflated Type I error rate. We then extend our simulations to investigate an alternative empirical resampling method as well as a Bayesian approach and demonstrate that they exhibit comparable statistical power to bootstrapping in small samples without the associated inflated Type I error. Implications for researchers testing mediation hypotheses in small samples are presented. For researchers wishing to use these methods in their own research, we have provided R syntax in the online supplemental materials. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

45 CFR 156.602 - Other coverage that qualifies as minimum essential coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

.... Coverage offered to students by an institution of higher education (as defined in the Higher Education Act... essential coverage for plan or policy years beginning on or before December 31, 2014. For coverage beginning... essential coverage for plan or policy years beginning on or before December 31, 2014. For coverage beginning...

45 CFR 156.602 - Other coverage that qualifies as minimum essential coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

.... Coverage offered to students by an institution of higher education (as defined in the Higher Education Act... essential coverage for plan or policy years beginning on or before December 31, 2014. For coverage beginning... essential coverage for plan or policy years beginning on or before December 31, 2014. For coverage beginning...

Multimodal MSI in Conjunction with Broad Coverage Spatially Resolved MS 2 Increases Confidence in Both Molecular Identification and Localization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veličković, Dušan; Chu, Rosalie K.; Carrell, Alyssa A.

One critical aspect of mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) is the need to confidently identify detected analytes. While orthogonal tandem MS (e.g., LC-MS 2) experiments from sample extracts can assist in annotating ions, the spatial information about these molecules is lost. Accordingly, this could cause mislead conclusions, especially in cases where isobaric species exhibit different distributions within a sample. In this Technical Note, we employed a multimodal imaging approach, using matrix assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI)-MSI and liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA)-MS 2I, to confidently annotate and One critical aspect of mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) is the need to confidently identify detectedmore » analytes. While orthogonal tandem MS (e.g., LC-MS2) experiments from sample extracts can assist in annotating ions, the spatial information about these molecules is lost. Accordingly, this could cause mislead conclusions, especially in cases where isobaric species exhibit different distributions within a sample. In this Technical Note, we employed a multimodal imaging approach, using matrix assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI)-MSI and liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA)-MS 2I, to confidently annotate and localize a broad range of metabolites involved in a tripartite symbiosis system of moss, cyanobacteria, and fungus. We found that the combination of these two imaging modalities generated very congruent ion images, providing the link between highly accurate structural information onfered by LESA and high spatial resolution attainable by MALDI. These results demonstrate how this combined methodology could be very useful in differentiating metabolite routes in complex systems.« less

Estimating chlamydia screening coverage: a comparison of self-report and health care effectiveness data and information set measures.

PubMed

Khosropour, Christine M; Broad, Jennifer M; Scholes, Delia; Saint-Johnson, Jacquelyn; Manhart, Lisa E; Golden, Matthew R

2014-11-01

Population-based surveys (self-report) and health insurance administrative data (Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set [HEDIS]) are used to estimate chlamydia screening coverage in the United States. Estimates from these methods differ, but few studies have compared these 2 indices in the same population. In 2010, we surveyed a random sample of women aged 18 to 25 years enrolled in a Washington State-managed care organization. Respondents were asked if they were sexually active in last year and if they tested for chlamydia in that time. We linked survey responses to administrative records of chlamydia testing and reproductive/testing services used, which comprise the HEDIS definition of the screened population and the sexually active population, respectively. We compared self-report and HEDIS using 3 outcomes: (1) sexual activity (gold standard = self-report), (2) any chlamydia screening (no gold standard), and (3) within-plan chlamydia screening (gold standard = HEDIS). Of 954 eligible respondents, 377 (40%) completed the survey and consented to administrative record linkage. Chlamydia screening estimates for HEDIS and self-report were 47% and 53%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of HEDIS to define sexually active women were 84.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 79.6%-89.1%) and 63.5% (95% CI, 52.4%-73.7%), respectively. Forty percent of women had a chlamydia test in their administrative record, but 53% self-reported being tested for chlamydia (κ = 0.35); 19% reported out-of-plan chlamydia testing. The sensitivity of self-reported within-plan chlamydia testing was 71.3% (95% CI, 61.0%-80.1%); the specificity was 80.6% (95% CI, 72.6%-87.2%). The Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set does not accurately identify sexually active women and may underestimate chlamydia testing coverage. Self-reported testing may not be an accurate measure of true chlamydial testing coverage.

An approach for sample size determination of average bioequivalence based on interval estimation.

PubMed

Chiang, Chieh; Hsiao, Chin-Fu

2017-03-30

In 1992, the US Food and Drug Administration declared that two drugs demonstrate average bioequivalence (ABE) if the log-transformed mean difference of pharmacokinetic responses lies in (-0.223, 0.223). The most widely used approach for assessing ABE is the two one-sided tests procedure. More specifically, ABE is concluded when a 100(1 - 2α) % confidence interval for mean difference falls within (-0.223, 0.223). As known, bioequivalent studies are usually conducted by crossover design. However, in the case that the half-life of a drug is long, a parallel design for the bioequivalent study may be preferred. In this study, a two-sided interval estimation - such as Satterthwaite's, Cochran-Cox's, or Howe's approximations - is used for assessing parallel ABE. We show that the asymptotic joint distribution of the lower and upper confidence limits is bivariate normal, and thus the sample size can be calculated based on the asymptotic power so that the confidence interval falls within (-0.223, 0.223). Simulation studies also show that the proposed method achieves sufficient empirical power. A real example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Factors influencing full immunization coverage among 12-23 months of age children in Ethiopia: evidence from the national demographic and health survey in 2011.

PubMed

Lakew, Yihunie; Bekele, Alemayhu; Biadgilign, Sibhatu

2015-07-30

Immunization remains one of the most important public health interventions to reduce child morbidity and mortality. The 2011 national demographic and health survey (DHS) indicated low full immunization coverage among children aged 12-23 months in Ethiopia. Factors contributing to the low coverage of immunization have been poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with full immunization coverage among children aged 12-23 months in Ethiopia. This study used the 2011 Ethiopian demographic and health survey data. The survey was cross sectional by design and used a multistage cluster sampling procedure. A total of 1,927 mothers with children of 12-23 months of age were extracted from the children's dataset. Mothers' self-reported data and observations of vaccination cards were used to determine vaccine coverage. An adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was used to outline the independent predictors. The prevalence of fully immunized children was 24.3%. Specific vaccination coverage for three doses of DPT, three doses of polio, measles and BCG were 36.5%, 44.3%, 55.7% and 66.3%, respectively. The multivariable analysis showed that sources of information from vaccination card [AOR 95% CI; 7.7 (5.95-10.06)], received postnatal check-up within two months after birth [AOR 95% CI; 1.8 (1.28-2.56)], women's awareness of community conversation program [AOR 95% CI; 1.9 (1.44-2.49)] and women in the rich wealth index [AOR 95% CI; 1.4 (1.06-1.94)] were the predictors of full immunization coverage. Women from Afar [AOR 95% CI; 0.07 (0.01-0.68)], Amhara [AOR 95% CI; 0.33 (0.13-0.81)], Oromiya [AOR 95% CI; 0.15 (0.06-0.37)], Somali [AOR 95% CI; 0.15 (0.04-0.55)] and Southern Nation and Nationalities People administrative regions [AOR 95% CI; 0.35 (0.14-0.87)] were less likely to fully vaccinate their children. The overall full immunization coverage in Ethiopia was considerably low as compared to the national target set (66

Power, effects, confidence, and significance: an investigation of statistical practices in nursing research.

PubMed

Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

2014-05-01

To (a) assess the statistical power of nursing research to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes; (b) estimate the experiment-wise Type I error rate in these studies; and (c) assess the extent to which (i) a priori power analyses, (ii) effect sizes (and interpretations thereof), and (iii) confidence intervals were reported. Statistical review. Papers published in the 2011 volumes of the 10 highest ranked nursing journals, based on their 5-year impact factors. Papers were assessed for statistical power, control of experiment-wise Type I error, reporting of a priori power analyses, reporting and interpretation of effect sizes, and reporting of confidence intervals. The analyses were based on 333 papers, from which 10,337 inferential statistics were identified. The median power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes was .40 (interquartile range [IQR]=.24-.71), .98 (IQR=.85-1.00), and 1.00 (IQR=1.00-1.00), respectively. The median experiment-wise Type I error rate was .54 (IQR=.26-.80). A priori power analyses were reported in 28% of papers. Effect sizes were routinely reported for Spearman's rank correlations (100% of papers in which this test was used), Poisson regressions (100%), odds ratios (100%), Kendall's tau correlations (100%), Pearson's correlations (99%), logistic regressions (98%), structural equation modelling/confirmatory factor analyses/path analyses (97%), and linear regressions (83%), but were reported less often for two-proportion z tests (50%), analyses of variance/analyses of covariance/multivariate analyses of variance (18%), t tests (8%), Wilcoxon's tests (8%), Chi-squared tests (8%), and Fisher's exact tests (7%), and not reported for sign tests, Friedman's tests, McNemar's tests, multi-level models, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Confidence intervals were reported in 28% of papers. The use, reporting, and interpretation of inferential statistics in nursing research need substantial

Effective coverage of essential inpatient care for small and sick newborns in a high mortality urban setting: a cross-sectional study in Nairobi City County, Kenya.

PubMed

Murphy, Georgina A V; Gathara, David; Mwachiro, Jacintah; Abuya, Nancy; Aluvaala, Jalemba; English, Mike

2018-05-22

Effective coverage requires that those in need can access skilled care supported by adequate resources. There are, however, few studies of effective coverage of facility-based neonatal care in low-income settings, despite the recognition that improving newborn survival is a global priority. We used a detailed retrospective review of medical records for neonatal admissions to public, private not-for-profit (mission) and private-for-profit (private) sector facilities providing 24×7 inpatient neonatal care in Nairobi City County to estimate the proportion of small and sick newborns receiving nationally recommended care across six process domains. We used our findings to explore the relationship between facility measures of structure and process and estimate effective coverage. Of 33 eligible facilities, 28 (four public, six mission and 18 private), providing an estimated 98.7% of inpatient neonatal care in the county, agreed to partake. Data from 1184 admission episodes were collected. Overall performance was lowest (weighted mean score 0.35 [95% confidence interval or CI: 0.22-0.48] out of 1) for correct prescription of fluid and feed volumes and best (0.86 [95% CI: 0.80-0.93]) for documentation of demographic characteristics. Doses of gentamicin, when prescribed, were at least 20% higher than recommended in 11.7% cases. Larger (often public) facilities tended to have higher process and structural quality scores compared with smaller, predominantly private, facilities. We estimate effective coverage to be 25% (estimate range: 21-31%). These newborns received high-quality inpatient care, while almost half (44.5%) of newborns needed care but did not receive it and a further 30.4% of newborns received an inadequate service. Failure to receive services and gaps in quality of care both contribute to a shortfall in effective coverage in Nairobi City County. Three-quarters of small and sick newborns do not have access to high-quality facility-based care. Substantial

Print news coverage of cancer: what prevention messages are conveyed when screening is newsworthy?

PubMed

Smith, Katherine Clegg; Kromm, Elizabeth Edsall; Klassen, Ann Carroll

2010-08-01

Americans are generally favorable towards cancer screening, but fatalistic about cancer prevention. News coverage shapes perceptions of cancer control in meaningful ways, but there is little consensus as to the impact of news on our understanding of and engagement in cancer screening practices. Our analysis of cancer screening-related print news coverage during a four month period in 2005 suggests that the newsworthiness of new screening technologies may undermine public confidence in currently available and effective secondary prevention programs, while promoting tests whose effectiveness is debated or not yet established. We conducted a structured text analysis of 517 cancer-related news articles from 15 leading daily newspapers and a subsequent qualitative analysis of the 79 screening news articles. Screening articles were analyzed for content related to criteria for screening effectiveness. Content patterns for each type of screening and cancer were also noted. News coverage consistently conveyed screening as important and highlighted the need to protect and expand access to screening. At the same time, to the extent that story content was framed by the newsworthiness of new tests and technologies this often indirectly called into question effective and established protocols and programs without providing any actionable alternative. This analysis revealed unexpected messages about screening that are potentially problematic for cancer control. The cancer control community should continue efforts to understand and shape news coverage of screening in order to promote balanced and action-oriented content. Research has shown that Americans hold conflicting views regarding cancer-having a favorable opinion of screening while simultaneously feeling fatalistic about prevention. Our analysis of print news stories on cancer screening suggests that the determination of screening's "newsworthiness" is related to newly developed tests and protocols, which may create demand

Face distinctiveness and delayed testing: differential effects on performance and confidence.

PubMed

Metzger, Mitchell M

2006-04-01

The author investigated the effect of delayed testing on participants' memory for distinctive and typical faces. Participants viewed distinctive and typical faces and were then tested for recognition immediately or after a delay of 3, 6, or 12 weeks. Consistent with prior research, analysis of measure of sensitivity (d') showed that participants performed better on distinctive rather than typical faces, and memory performance declined with longer retention intervals between study and testing. Furthermore, the superior performance on distinctive faces had vanished by the 12-week test. Contrary to d' data, however, an analysis of confidence scores indicated that participants were still significantly more confident on trials depicting distinctive faces, even with a 12-week delay between study and recognition testing.

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landman, Drew; Toro, Kenneth G.; Commo, Sean A.; Lynn, Keith C.

2014-01-01

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Interpregnancy interval and risk of autistic disorder.

PubMed

Gunnes, Nina; Surén, Pål; Bresnahan, Michaeline; Hornig, Mady; Lie, Kari Kveim; Lipkin, W Ian; Magnus, Per; Nilsen, Roy Miodini; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted; Schjølberg, Synnve; Susser, Ezra Saul; Øyen, Anne-Siri; Stoltenberg, Camilla

2013-11-01

A recent California study reported increased risk of autistic disorder in children conceived within a year after the birth of a sibling. We assessed the association between interpregnancy interval and risk of autistic disorder using nationwide registry data on pairs of singleton full siblings born in Norway. We defined interpregnancy interval as the time from birth of the first-born child to conception of the second-born child in a sibship. The outcome of interest was autistic disorder in the second-born child. Analyses were restricted to sibships in which the second-born child was born in 1990-2004. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by fitting ordinary logistic models and logistic generalized additive models. The study sample included 223,476 singleton full-sibling pairs. In sibships with interpregnancy intervals <9 months, 0.25% of the second-born children had autistic disorder, compared with 0.13% in the reference category (≥ 36 months). For interpregnancy intervals shorter than 9 months, the adjusted OR of autistic disorder in the second-born child was 2.18 (95% confidence interval 1.42-3.26). The risk of autistic disorder in the second-born child was also increased for interpregnancy intervals of 9-11 months in the adjusted analysis (OR = 1.71 [95% CI = 1.07-2.64]). Consistent with a previous report from California, interpregnancy intervals shorter than 1 year were associated with increased risk of autistic disorder in the second-born child. A possible explanation is depletion of micronutrients in mothers with closely spaced pregnancies.

Multi-reader ROC studies with split-plot designs: a comparison of statistical methods.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Gallas, Brandon D; Hillis, Stephen L

2012-12-01

Multireader imaging trials often use a factorial design, in which study patients undergo testing with all imaging modalities and readers interpret the results of all tests for all patients. A drawback of this design is the large number of interpretations required of each reader. Split-plot designs have been proposed as an alternative, in which one or a subset of readers interprets all images of a sample of patients, while other readers interpret the images of other samples of patients. In this paper, the authors compare three methods of analysis for the split-plot design. Three statistical methods are presented: the Obuchowski-Rockette method modified for the split-plot design, a newly proposed marginal-mean analysis-of-variance approach, and an extension of the three-sample U-statistic method. A simulation study using the Roe-Metz model was performed to compare the type I error rate, power, and confidence interval coverage of the three test statistics. The type I error rates for all three methods are close to the nominal level but tend to be slightly conservative. The statistical power is nearly identical for the three methods. The coverage of 95% confidence intervals falls close to the nominal coverage for small and large sample sizes. The split-plot multireader, multicase study design can be statistically efficient compared to the factorial design, reducing the number of interpretations required per reader. Three methods of analysis, shown to have nominal type I error rates, similar power, and nominal confidence interval coverage, are available for this study design. Copyright © 2012 AUR. All rights reserved.

Determination of confidence limits for experiments with low numbers of counts. [Poisson-distributed photon counts from astrophysical sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kraft, Ralph P.; Burrows, David N.; Nousek, John A.

1991-01-01

Two different methods, classical and Bayesian, for determining confidence intervals involving Poisson-distributed data are compared. Particular consideration is given to cases where the number of counts observed is small and is comparable to the mean number of background counts. Reasons for preferring the Bayesian over the classical method are given. Tables of confidence limits calculated by the Bayesian method are provided for quick reference.

Parents' obesity-related behavior and confidence to support behavioral change in their obese child: data from the STAR study.

PubMed

Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A

2014-01-01

Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Recent history of the news coverage of violence against women in Spain, 1997-2001].

PubMed

Vives-Cases, Carmen; Ruiz, María Teresa; Alvarez-Dardet, Carlos; Martín, Marta

2005-01-01

To explore press coverage of violence against women between 1997 and 2001, and to analyze the temporal development of murders due to this cause in Spain and the social context in which these media events take place. Quantitative content analyses were performed of 865 news items on violence against women in the Spanish newspapers El País, ABC and El Mundo (1997-2001). Absolute and relative frequencies, and relative risk (RR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), were calculated. Crude mortality rates were calculated for violence against women (1998-2003) based on the Register of the Federation of Separated and Divorced Women. Press coverage of violence against women increased, coinciding with dramatic events and political responses to the problem. In this context, mortality from this cause remained constant. News about incidents (65%) were more frequent than news about interventions (35%). In news items in which sex was identified (35% of the total), women (n = 151) and men (n = 150) shared the role of principle information source. Men from law institutions (RR = 1.77; 95% CI, 1.44-2.17) and women from health institutions (RR = 0.39; 95% CI, 0.14-1.08) and associations (RR = 0.33; 95% CI, 0.13-0.81) were more likely to be the main source of information than their counterparts. Men had a higher probability than women of being the main source of information in news about punishment (RR = 1.42; 95% CI, 1.12-1.81). In a context in which mortality from violence against women remains constant, news about this subject has increased, coinciding with dramatic events and political responses. The main sources of information are politicians of both sexes, men from law institutions, and women from health institutions and associations. Men are the main source of information in news about punishment.

Optimal Measurement Interval for Emergency Department Crowding Estimation Tools.

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Ojha, Rohit P; Robinson, Richard D; Jackson, Bradford E; Shaikh, Sajid A; Cowden, Chad D; Shyamanand, Rath; Leuck, JoAnna; Schrader, Chet D; Zenarosa, Nestor R

2017-11-01

Emergency department (ED) crowding is a barrier to timely care. Several crowding estimation tools have been developed to facilitate early identification of and intervention for crowding. Nevertheless, the ideal frequency is unclear for measuring ED crowding by using these tools. Short intervals may be resource intensive, whereas long ones may not be suitable for early identification. Therefore, we aim to assess whether outcomes vary by measurement interval for 4 crowding estimation tools. Our eligible population included all patients between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, who were admitted to the JPS Health Network ED, which serves an urban population. We generated 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-hour ED crowding scores for each patient, using 4 crowding estimation tools (National Emergency Department Overcrowding Scale [NEDOCS], Severely Overcrowded, Overcrowded, and Not Overcrowded Estimation Tool [SONET], Emergency Department Work Index [EDWIN], and ED Occupancy Rate). Our outcomes of interest included ED length of stay (minutes) and left without being seen or eloped within 4 hours. We used accelerated failure time models to estimate interval-specific time ratios and corresponding 95% confidence limits for length of stay, in which the 1-hour interval was the reference. In addition, we used binomial regression with a log link to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and corresponding confidence limit for left without being seen. Our study population comprised 117,442 patients. The time ratios for length of stay were similar across intervals for each crowding estimation tool (time ratio=1.37 to 1.30 for NEDOCS, 1.44 to 1.37 for SONET, 1.32 to 1.27 for EDWIN, and 1.28 to 1.23 for ED Occupancy Rate). The RRs of left without being seen differences were also similar across intervals for each tool (RR=2.92 to 2.56 for NEDOCS, 3.61 to 3.36 for SONET, 2.65 to 2.40 for EDWIN, and 2.44 to 2.14 for ED Occupancy Rate). Our findings suggest limited variation in length of stay or left without being

Constellation Coverage Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lo, Martin W. (Compiler)

1997-01-01

The design of satellite constellations requires an understanding of the dynamic global coverage provided by the constellations. Even for a small constellation with a simple circular orbit propagator, the combinatorial nature of the analysis frequently renders the problem intractable. Particularly for the initial design phase where the orbital parameters are still fluid and undetermined, the coverage information is crucial to evaluate the performance of the constellation design. We have developed a fast and simple algorithm for determining the global constellation coverage dynamically using image processing techniques. This approach provides a fast, powerful and simple method for the analysis of global constellation coverage.

An Alternative to Cohen's Standardized Mean Difference Effect Size: A Robust Parameter and Confidence Interval in the Two Independent Groups Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2005-01-01

The authors argue that a robust version of Cohen's effect size constructed by replacing population means with 20% trimmed means and the population standard deviation with the square root of a 20% Winsorized variance is a better measure of population separation than is Cohen's effect size. The authors investigated coverage probability for…

[Study on the coverage of cervical and breast cancer screening among women aged 35-69 years and related impact of socioeconomic factors in China, 2013].

PubMed

Bao, H L; Wang, L H; Wang, L M; Fang, L W; Zhang, M; Zhao, Z P; Cong, S

2018-02-10

Objective: To estimate the cervical and breast cancer screening coverage and related factors among women aged 35-69 years who were in the National Cervical and Breast Screening Program, to provide evidence for improving cervical and breast cancer control and prevention strategy. Methods: Data used in this study were abstracted from the 2013 Chinese Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Surveillance Program. A total of 66 130 women aged 35-64 years and 72 511 women aged 35-69 years were included for this study. Weighted prevalence, (with 95% confidence interval, CI ) was calculated for complex sampling design. Rao-Scott χ (2) method was used to compare the screening coverage among subgroups. A random intercept equation which involved the logit-link function, was fitted under the following five levels: provincial, county, township, village and individual. Fix effects of all explanatory variables were converted into OR with 95% CI . Results: In 2013, 26.7% (95% CI : 24.6%-28.9%) of the 35-64 year-old women reported that they ever had been screened for cervical cancer and 22.5% (95% CI : 20.4%-24.6%) of the 35-69 year-olds had ever undergone breast cancer screening. Lower coverage was observed among women residing in rural and central or western China than those in urban or eastern China ( P <0.000 1). The coverage among women aged 50 years or older was substantially lower than those aged 35-49 years. Those who were with low education level, unemployed, low household income and not covered by insurance, appeared fewer number on this cervical or breast cancer screening program ( P <0.000 1). Women living in rural and western China were having less chance of receiving the breast cancer screening ( P <0.05), but the difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion: It is essential to strengthen the community-based cervical and breast cancer screening programs, in order to increase the coverage. More attention should be paid to women aged 50 years or older, especially

Coverage of neonatal screening: failure of coverage or failure of information system

PubMed Central

Ades, A; Walker, J; Jones, R; Smith, I

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVES—To evaluate neonatal screening coverage using data routinely collected on the laboratory computer.
SUBJECTS—90 850 births in 14 North East Thames community provider districts over a 21 month period.
METHODS—Births notified to local child health computers are electronically copied to the neonatal laboratory computer system, and incoming Guthrie cards are matched against these birth records before testing. The computer records for the study period were processed to estimate the coverage of the screening programme.
RESULTS—Out of an estimated 90 850 births notified to child health computers, all but 746 (0.82%) appeared to have been screened or could be otherwise accounted for (0.14% in non-metropolitan districts, 0.39% in suburban districts, and 1.68% in inner city districts). A further 893 resident infants had been tested, but could not be matched to the list of notified resident births. The calculated programme coverage already exceeds the 99.5% National Audit Programme standard in 7/14 districts. Elsewhere it is not clear whether it is coverage or recording of coverage that is low.
CONCLUSION—Previous reports of low coverage may have been exaggerated. High coverage can be shown using routine information systems. Design of information systems that deliver accurate measures of coverage would be more useful than comparison of inadequately measured coverage with a national standard. The new NHS number project will create an opportunity to achieve this.
 PMID:11369561

Identifying the bad guy in a lineup using confidence judgments under deadline pressure.

PubMed

Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Wootton, David; Lindsay, D Stephen

2012-10-01

Eyewitness-identification tests often culminate in witnesses not picking the culprit or identifying innocent suspects. We tested a radical alternative to the traditional lineup procedure used in such tests. Rather than making a positive identification, witnesses made confidence judgments under a short deadline about whether each lineup member was the culprit. We compared this deadline procedure with the traditional sequential-lineup procedure in three experiments with retention intervals ranging from 5 min to 1 week. A classification algorithm that identified confidence criteria that optimally discriminated accurate from inaccurate decisions revealed that decision accuracy was 24% to 66% higher under the deadline procedure than under the traditional procedure. Confidence profiles across lineup stimuli were more informative than were identification decisions about the likelihood that an individual witness recognized the culprit or correctly recognized that the culprit was not present. Large differences between the maximum and the next-highest confidence value signaled very high accuracy. Future support for this procedure across varied conditions would highlight a viable alternative to the problematic lineup procedures that have traditionally been used by law enforcement.

Health Insurance Trajectories and Long-Term Survival After Heart Transplantation.

PubMed

Tumin, Dmitry; Foraker, Randi E; Smith, Sakima; Tobias, Joseph D; Hayes, Don

2016-09-01

Health insurance status at heart transplantation influences recipient survival, but implications of change in insurance for long-term outcomes are unclear. Adults aged 18 to 64 receiving first-time orthotopic heart transplants between July 2006 and December 2013 were identified in the United Network for Organ Sharing registry. Patients surviving >1 year were categorized according to trajectory of insurance status (private compared with public) at wait listing, transplantation, and 1-year follow-up. The most common insurance trajectories were continuous private coverage (44%), continuous public coverage (27%), and transition from private to public coverage (11%). Among patients who survived to 1 year (n=9088), continuous public insurance (hazard ratio =1.36; 95% confidence interval 1.19, 1.56; P<0.001) and transition from private to public insurance (hazard ratio =1.25; 95% confidence interval 1.04, 1.50; P=0.017) were associated with increased mortality hazard relative to continuous private insurance. Supplementary analyses of 11 247 patients included all durations of post-transplant survival and examined post-transplant private-to-public and public-to-private transitions as time-varying covariates. In these analyses, transition from private to public insurance was associated with increased mortality hazard (hazard ratio =1.25; 95% confidence interval 1.07, 1.47; P=0.005), whereas transition from public to private insurance was associated with lower mortality hazard (hazard ratio =0.78; 95% confidence interval 0.62, 0.97; P=0.024). Transition from private to public insurance after heart transplantation is associated with worse long-term outcomes, compounding disparities in post-transplant survival attributed to insurance status at transplantation. By contrast, post-transplant gain of private insurance among patients receiving publicly funded heart transplants was associated with improved outcomes. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Drug Coverage (Part D)

MedlinePlus

... insurance Find health & drug plans Drug coverage (Part D) How to get drug coverage Choose from 2 ... drug coverage. You can choose a Medicare Part D plan. Or, you can choose a Medicare Advantage ...

Zero- vs. one-dimensional, parametric vs. non-parametric, and confidence interval vs. hypothesis testing procedures in one-dimensional biomechanical trajectory analysis.

PubMed

Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A

2015-05-01

Biomechanical processes are often manifested as one-dimensional (1D) trajectories. It has been shown that 1D confidence intervals (CIs) are biased when based on 0D statistical procedures, and the non-parametric 1D bootstrap CI has emerged in the Biomechanics literature as a viable solution. The primary purpose of this paper was to clarify that, for 1D biomechanics datasets, the distinction between 0D and 1D methods is much more important than the distinction between parametric and non-parametric procedures. A secondary purpose was to demonstrate that a parametric equivalent to the 1D bootstrap exists in the form of a random field theory (RFT) correction for multiple comparisons. To emphasize these points we analyzed six datasets consisting of force and kinematic trajectories in one-sample, paired, two-sample and regression designs. Results showed, first, that the 1D bootstrap and other 1D non-parametric CIs were qualitatively identical to RFT CIs, and all were very different from 0D CIs. Second, 1D parametric and 1D non-parametric hypothesis testing results were qualitatively identical for all six datasets. Last, we highlight the limitations of 1D CIs by demonstrating that they are complex, design-dependent, and thus non-generalizable. These results suggest that (i) analyses of 1D data based on 0D models of randomness are generally biased unless one explicitly identifies 0D variables before the experiment, and (ii) parametric and non-parametric 1D hypothesis testing provide an unambiguous framework for analysis when one׳s hypothesis explicitly or implicitly pertains to whole 1D trajectories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated measurement of stent strut coverage in intravascular optical coherence tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Chi Young; Kim, Byeong-Keuk; Hong, Myeong-Ki; Jang, Yangsoo; Heo, Jung; Joo, Chulmin; Seo, Jin Keun

2015-02-01

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive, cross-sectional imaging modality that has become a prominent imaging method in percutaneous intracoronary intervention. We present an automated detection algorithm for stent strut coordinates and coverage in OCT images. The algorithm for stent strut detection is composed of a coordinate transformation from the polar to the Cartesian domains and application of second derivative operators in the radial and the circumferential directions. Local region-based active contouring was employed to detect lumen boundaries. We applied the method to the OCT pullback images acquired from human patients in vivo to quantitatively measure stent strut coverage. The validation studies against manual expert assessments demonstrated high Pearson's coefficients ( R = 0.99) in terms of the stent strut coordinates, with no significant bias. An averaged Hausdorff distance of < 120 μm was obtained for vessel border detection. Quantitative comparison in stent strut to vessel wall distance found a bias of < 12.3 μm and a 95% confidence of < 110 μm.

Responsibility and confidence

PubMed Central

Austin, Zubin

2013-01-01

Background: Despite the changing role of the pharmacist in patient-centred practice, pharmacists anecdotally reported little confidence in their clinical decision-making skills and do not feel responsible for their patients. Observational findings have suggested these trends within the profession, but there is a paucity of evidence to explain why. We conducted an exploratory study with an objective to identify reasons for the lack of responsibility and/or confidence in various pharmacy practice settings. Methods: Pharmacist interviews were conducted via written response, face-to-face or telephone. Seven questions were asked on the topic of responsibility and confidence as it applies to pharmacy practice and how pharmacists think these themes differ in medicine. Interview transcripts were analyzed and divided by common theme. Quotations to support these themes are presented. Results: Twenty-nine pharmacists were asked to participate, and 18 responded (62% response rate). From these interviews, 6 themes were identified as barriers to confidence and responsibility: hierarchy of the medical system, role definitions, evolution of responsibility, ownership of decisions for confidence building, quality and consequences of mentorship and personality traits upon admission. Discussion: We identified 6 potential barriers to the development of pharmacists’ self-confidence and responsibility. These findings have practical applicability for educational research, future curriculum changes, experiential learning structure and pharmacy practice. Due to bias and the limitations of this form of exploratory research and small sample size, evidence should be interpreted cautiously. Conclusion: Pharmacists feel neither responsible nor confident for their clinical decisions due to social, educational, experiential and personal reasons. Can Pharm J 2013;146:155-161. PMID:23795200

Mapping Titan Cloud Coverage

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-09-21

This graphic, constructed from data obtained by NASA Cassini spacecraft, shows the percentage of cloud coverage across the surface of Saturn moon Titan. The color scale from black to yellow signifies no cloud coverage to complete cloud coverage.

Health Care Coverage Decision Making in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Experiences from 25 Coverage Schemes.

PubMed

Gutierrez, Hialy; Shewade, Ashwini; Dai, Minghan; Mendoza-Arana, Pedro; Gómez-Dantés, Octavio; Jain, Nishant; Khonelidze, Irma; Nabyonga-Orem, Juliet; Saleh, Karima; Teerawattananon, Yot; Nishtar, Sania; Hornberger, John

2015-08-01

Lessons learned by countries that have successfully implemented coverage schemes for health services may be valuable for other countries, especially low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which likewise are seeking to provide/expand coverage. The research team surveyed experts in population health management from LMICs for information on characteristics of health care coverage schemes and factors that influenced decision-making processes. The level of coverage provided by the different schemes varied. Nearly all the health care coverage schemes involved various representatives and stakeholders in their decision-making processes. Maternal and child health, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and HIV were among the highest priorities guiding coverage development decisions. Evidence used to inform coverage decisions included medical literature, regional and global epidemiology, and coverage policies of other coverage schemes. Funding was the most commonly reported reason for restricting coverage. This exploratory study provides an overview of health care coverage schemes from participating LMICs and contributes to the scarce evidence base on coverage decision making. Sharing knowledge and experiences among LMICs can support efforts to establish systems for accessible, affordable, and equitable health care.

Multimodal MSI in Conjunction with Broad Coverage Spatially Resolved MS2 Increases Confidence in Both Molecular Identification and Localization.

PubMed

Veličković, Dušan; Chu, Rosalie K; Carrell, Alyssa A; Thomas, Mathew; Paša-Tolić, Ljiljana; Weston, David J; Anderton, Christopher R

2018-01-02

One critical aspect of mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) is the need to confidently identify detected analytes. While orthogonal tandem MS (e.g., LC-MS 2 ) experiments from sample extracts can assist in annotating ions, the spatial information about these molecules is lost. Accordingly, this could cause mislead conclusions, especially in cases where isobaric species exhibit different distributions within a sample. In this Technical Note, we employed a multimodal imaging approach, using matrix assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI)-MSI and liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA)-MS 2 I, to confidently annotate and localize a broad range of metabolites involved in a tripartite symbiosis system of moss, cyanobacteria, and fungus. We found that the combination of these two imaging modalities generated very congruent ion images, providing the link between highly accurate structural information onfered by LESA and high spatial resolution attainable by MALDI. These results demonstrate how this combined methodology could be very useful in differentiating metabolite routes in complex systems.

Multimodal MSI in Conjunction with Broad Coverage Spatially Resolved MS 2 Increases Confidence in Both Molecular Identification and Localization

DOE PAGES

Veličković, Dušan; Chu, Rosalie K.; Carrell, Alyssa A.; ...

2017-12-06

One critical aspect of mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) is the need to confidently identify detected analytes. While orthogonal tandem MS (e.g., LC–MS 2) experiments from sample extracts can assist in annotating ions, the spatial information about these molecules is lost. Accordingly, this could cause mislead conclusions, especially in cases where isobaric species exhibit different distributions within a sample. In this Technical Note, we employed a multimodal imaging approach, using matrix assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI)-MSI and liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA)-MS 2I, to confidently annotate and localize a broad range of metabolites involved in a tripartite symbiosis system of moss, cyanobacteria,more » and fungus. In conclusion, we found that the combination of these two imaging modalities generated very congruent ion images, providing the link between highly accurate structural information onfered by LESA and high spatial resolution attainable by MALDI. These results demonstrate how this combined methodology could be very useful in differentiating metabolite routes in complex systems.« less

Multimodal MSI in Conjunction with Broad Coverage Spatially Resolved MS 2 Increases Confidence in Both Molecular Identification and Localization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veličković, Dušan; Chu, Rosalie K.; Carrell, Alyssa A.

One critical aspect of mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) is the need to confidently identify detected analytes. While orthogonal tandem MS (e.g., LC–MS 2) experiments from sample extracts can assist in annotating ions, the spatial information about these molecules is lost. Accordingly, this could cause mislead conclusions, especially in cases where isobaric species exhibit different distributions within a sample. In this Technical Note, we employed a multimodal imaging approach, using matrix assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI)-MSI and liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA)-MS 2I, to confidently annotate and localize a broad range of metabolites involved in a tripartite symbiosis system of moss, cyanobacteria,more » and fungus. In conclusion, we found that the combination of these two imaging modalities generated very congruent ion images, providing the link between highly accurate structural information onfered by LESA and high spatial resolution attainable by MALDI. These results demonstrate how this combined methodology could be very useful in differentiating metabolite routes in complex systems.« less

Neighborhood-targeted and case-triggered use of a single dose of oral cholera vaccine in an urban setting: Feasibility and vaccine coverage.

PubMed

Parker, Lucy A; Rumunu, John; Jamet, Christine; Kenyi, Yona; Lino, Richard Laku; Wamala, Joseph F; Mpairwe, Allan M; Muller, Vincent; Llosa, Augusto E; Uzzeni, Florent; Luquero, Francisco J; Ciglenecki, Iza; Azman, Andrew S

2017-06-01

In June 2015, a cholera outbreak was declared in Juba, South Sudan. In addition to standard outbreak control measures, oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was proposed. As sufficient doses to cover the at-risk population were unavailable, a campaign using half the standard dosing regimen (one-dose) targeted high-risk neighborhoods and groups including neighbors of suspected cases. Here we report the operational details of this first public health use of a single-dose regimen of OCV and illustrate the feasibility of conducting highly targeted vaccination campaigns in an urban area. Neighborhoods of the city were prioritized for vaccination based on cumulative attack rates, active transmission and local knowledge of known cholera risk factors. OCV was offered to all persons older than 12 months at 20 fixed sites and to select groups, including neighbors of cholera cases after the main campaign ('case-triggered' interventions), through mobile teams. Vaccination coverage was estimated by multi-stage surveys using spatial sampling techniques. 162,377 individuals received a single-dose of OCV in the targeted neighborhoods. In these neighborhoods vaccine coverage was 68.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 64.0-73.7) and was highest among children ages 5-14 years (90.0%, 95% CI 85.7-94.3), with adult men being less likely to be vaccinated than adult women (Relative Risk 0.81, 95% CI: 0.68-0.96). In the case-triggered interventions, each lasting 1-2 days, coverage varied (range: 30-87%) with an average of 51.0% (95% CI 41.7-60.3). Vaccine supply constraints and the complex realities where cholera outbreaks occur may warrant the use of flexible alternative vaccination strategies, including highly-targeted vaccination campaigns and single-dose regimens. We showed that such campaigns are feasible. Additional work is needed to understand how and when to use different strategies to best protect populations against epidemic cholera.

Re-evaluation of link between interpregnancy interval and adverse birth outcomes: retrospective cohort study matching two intervals per mother

PubMed Central

Pereira, Gavin; Jacoby, Peter; de Klerk, Nicholas; Stanley, Fiona J

2014-01-01

Objective To re-evaluate the causal effect of interpregnancy interval on adverse birth outcomes, on the basis that previous studies relying on between mother comparisons may have inadequately adjusted for confounding by maternal risk factors. Design Retrospective cohort study using conditional logistic regression (matching two intervals per mother so each mother acts as her own control) to model the incidence of adverse birth outcomes as a function of interpregnancy interval; additional unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for confounders enabled comparison with the unmatched design of previous studies. Setting Perth, Western Australia, 1980-2010. Participants 40 441 mothers who each delivered three liveborn singleton neonates. Main outcome measures Preterm birth (<37 weeks), small for gestational age birth (<10th centile of birth weight by sex and gestational age), and low birth weight (<2500 g). Results Within mother analysis of interpregnancy intervals indicated a much weaker effect of short intervals on the odds of preterm birth and low birth weight compared with estimates generated using a traditional between mother analysis. The traditional unmatched design estimated an adjusted odds ratio for an interpregnancy interval of 0-5 months (relative to the reference category of 18-23 months) of 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.31 to 1.51) for preterm birth, 1.26 (1.15 to 1.37) for low birth weight, and 0.98 (0.92 to 1.06) for small for gestational age birth. In comparison, the matched design showed a much weaker effect of short interpregnancy interval on preterm birth (odds ratio 1.07, 0.86 to 1.34) and low birth weight (1.03, 0.79 to 1.34), and the effect for small for gestational age birth remained small (1.08, 0.87 to 1.34). Both the unmatched and matched models estimated a high odds of small for gestational age birth and low birth weight for long interpregnancy intervals (longer than 59 months), but the estimated effect of long interpregnancy

Immunisation coverage, 2012.

PubMed

Hull, Brynley P; Dey, Aditi; Menzies, Rob I; Brotherton, Julia M; McIntyre, Peter B

2014-09-30

This, the 6th annual immunisation coverage report, documents trends during 2012 for a range of standard measures derived from Australian Childhood Immunisation Register (ACIR) data, and National Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination Program Register data. These include coverage at standard age milestones and for individual vaccines included on the National Immunisation Program (NIP) and coverage in adolescents and adults. The proportion of Australian children 'fully vaccinated' at 12, 24 and 60 months of age was 91.7%, 92.5% and 91.2%, respectively. For vaccines available on the NIP but not assessed during 2012 for 'fully vaccinated' status or for eligibility for incentive payments (rotavirus and pneumococcal at 12 months and meningococcal C and varicella at 24 months) coverage varied. Although pneumococcal vaccine had similar coverage at 12 months to other vaccines, coverage was lower for rotavirus at 12 months (83.6%) and varicella at 24 months (84.4%). Although 'fully vaccinated' coverage at 12 months of age was lower among Indigenous children than non-Indigenous children in all jurisdictions, the extent of the difference varied, reaching a 15 percentage point differential in South Australia but only a 0.4 percentage point differential in the Northern Territory. Overall, Indigenous coverage at 24 months of age exceeded that at 12 months of age nationally and for all jurisdictions, but as receipt of varicella vaccine at 18 months is excluded from calculations, this represents delayed immunisation, with some contribution from immunisation incentives. The 'fully vaccinated' coverage estimates for vaccinations due by 60 months of age for Indigenous children exceeded 90% at 91% in 2012. Unlike in 2011, at 60 months of age, there was no dramatic variation in coverage between Indigenous and non-Indigenous children for individual jurisdictions. As previously documented, vaccines recommended for Indigenous children only, hepatitis A and pneumococcal vaccine, had

ESTABLISHMENT OF A FIBRINOGEN REFERENCE INTERVAL IN ORNATE BOX TURTLES (TERRAPENE ORNATA ORNATA).

PubMed

Parkinson, Lily; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Klaphake, Eric; Dadone, Liza; Johnston, Matthew

2016-09-01

This study sought to establish a reference interval for fibrinogen in healthy ornate box turtles ( Terrapene ornata ornata). A total of 48 turtles were enrolled, with 42 turtles deemed to be noninflammatory and thus fitting the inclusion criteria and utilized to estimate a fibrinogen reference interval. Turtles were excluded based upon physical examination and blood work abnormalities. A Shapiro-Wilk normality test indicated that the noninflammatory turtle fibrinogen values were normally distributed (Gaussian distribution) with an average of 108 mg/dl and a 95% confidence interval of the mean of 97.9-117 mg/dl. Those turtles excluded from the reference interval because of abnormalities affecting their health had significantly different fibrinogen values (P = 0.313). A reference interval for healthy ornate box turtles was calculated. Further investigation into the utility of fibrinogen measurement for clinical usage in ornate box turtles is warranted.

Changes in antidepressant use by young people and suicidal behavior after FDA warnings and media coverage: quasi-experimental study.

PubMed

Lu, Christine Y; Zhang, Fang; Lakoma, Matthew D; Madden, Jeanne M; Rusinak, Donna; Penfold, Robert B; Simon, Gregory; Ahmedani, Brian K; Clarke, Gregory; Hunkeler, Enid M; Waitzfelder, Beth; Owen-Smith, Ashli; Raebel, Marsha A; Rossom, Rebecca; Coleman, Karen J; Copeland, Laurel A; Soumerai, Stephen B

2014-06-18

To investigate if the widely publicized warnings in 2003 from the US Food and Drug Administration about a possible increased risk of suicidality with antidepressant use in young people were associated with changes in antidepressant use, suicide attempts, and completed suicides among young people. Quasi-experimental study assessing changes in outcomes after the warnings, controlling for pre-existing trends. Automated healthcare claims data (2000-10) derived from the virtual data warehouse of 11 health plans in the US Mental Health Research Network. Study cohorts included adolescents (around 1.1 million), young adults (around 1.4 million), and adults (around 5 million). Rates of antidepressant dispensings, psychotropic drug poisonings (a validated proxy for suicide attempts), and completed suicides. Trends in antidepressant use and poisonings changed abruptly after the warnings. In the second year after the warnings, relative changes in antidepressant use were -31.0% (95% confidence interval -33.0% to -29.0%) among adolescents, -24.3% (-25.4% to -23.2%) among young adults, and -14.5% (-16.0% to -12.9%) among adults. These reflected absolute reductions of 696, 1216, and 1621 dispensings per 100,000 people among adolescents, young adults, and adults, respectively. Simultaneously, there were significant, relative increases in psychotropic drug poisonings in adolescents (21.7%, 95% confidence interval 4.9% to 38.5%) and young adults (33.7%, 26.9% to 40.4%) but not among adults (5.2%, -6.5% to 16.9%). These reflected absolute increases of 2 and 4 poisonings per 100,000 people among adolescents and young adults, respectively (approximately 77 additional poisonings in our cohort of 2.5 million young people). Completed suicides did not change for any age group. Safety warnings about antidepressants and widespread media coverage decreased antidepressant use, and there were simultaneous increases in suicide attempts among young people. It is essential to monitor and reduce

Effects of High-Intensity Interval Training on Aerobic Capacity in Cardiac Patients: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Xie, Bin; Yan, Xianfeng

2017-01-01

Purpose. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of high-intensity interval training (INTERVAL) and moderate-intensity continuous training (CONTINUOUS) on aerobic capacity in cardiac patients. Methods. A meta-analysis identified by searching the PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases from inception through December 2016 compared the effects of INTERVAL and CONTINUOUS among cardiac patients. Results. Twenty-one studies involving 736 participants with cardiac diseases were included. Compared with CONTINUOUS, INTERVAL was associated with greater improvement in peak VO2 (mean difference 1.76 mL/kg/min, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 2.46 mL/kg/min, p < 0.001) and VO2 at AT (mean difference 0.90 mL/kg/min, 95% confidence interval 0.0 to 1.72 mL/kg/min, p = 0.03). No significant difference between the INTERVAL and CONTINUOUS groups was observed in terms of peak heart rate, peak minute ventilation, VE/VCO2 slope and respiratory exchange ratio, body mass, systolic or diastolic blood pressure, triglyceride or low- or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, flow-mediated dilation, or left ventricular ejection fraction. Conclusions. This study showed that INTERVAL improves aerobic capacity more effectively than does CONTINUOUS in cardiac patients. Further studies with larger samples are needed to confirm our observations. PMID:28386556

Exact intervals and tests for median when one sample value possibly an outliner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, G. J.; Walsh, J. E.

1973-01-01

Available are independent observations (continuous data) that are believed to be a random sample. Desired are distribution-free confidence intervals and significance tests for the population median. However, there is the possibility that either the smallest or the largest observation is an outlier. Then, use of a procedure for rejection of an outlying observation might seem appropriate. Such a procedure would consider that two alternative situations are possible and would select one of them. Either (1) the n observations are truly a random sample, or (2) an outlier exists and its removal leaves a random sample of size n-1. For either situation, confidence intervals and tests are desired for the median of the population yielding the random sample. Unfortunately, satisfactory rejection procedures of a distribution-free nature do not seem to be available. Moreover, all rejection procedures impose undesirable conditional effects on the observations, and also, can select the wrong one of the two above situations. It is found that two-sided intervals and tests based on two symmetrically located order statistics (not the largest and smallest) of the n observations have this property.

Clustered lot quality assurance sampling to assess immunisation coverage: increasing rapidity and maintaining precision.

PubMed

Pezzoli, Lorenzo; Andrews, Nick; Ronveaux, Olivier

2010-05-01

Vaccination programmes targeting disease elimination aim to achieve very high coverage levels (e.g. 95%). We calculated the precision of different clustered lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) designs in computer-simulated surveys to provide local health officers in the field with preset LQAS plans to simply and rapidly assess programmes with high coverage targets. We calculated sample size (N), decision value (d) and misclassification errors (alpha and beta) of several LQAS plans by running 10 000 simulations. We kept the upper coverage threshold (UT) at 90% or 95% and decreased the lower threshold (LT) progressively by 5%. We measured the proportion of simulations with < or =d individuals unvaccinated or lower if the coverage was set at the UT (pUT) to calculate beta (1-pUT) and the proportion of simulations with >d unvaccinated individuals if the coverage was LT% (pLT) to calculate alpha (1-pLT). We divided N in clusters (between 5 and 10) and recalculated the errors hypothesising that the coverage would vary in the clusters according to a binomial distribution with preset standard deviations of 0.05 and 0.1 from the mean lot coverage. We selected the plans fulfilling these criteria: alpha < or = 5% beta < or = 20% in the unclustered design; alpha < or = 10% beta < or = 25% when the lots were divided in five clusters. When the interval between UT and LT was larger than 10% (e.g. 15%), we were able to select precise LQAS plans dividing the lot in five clusters with N = 50 (5 x 10) and d = 4 to evaluate programmes with 95% coverage target and d = 7 to evaluate programmes with 90% target. These plans will considerably increase the feasibility and the rapidity of conducting the LQAS in the field.

We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

PubMed

Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

2016-12-01

The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.

PubMed

Matthews, David

2013-10-12

A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.

Raising Confident Kids

MedlinePlus

... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

Low coverage of central point vaccination against dog rabies in Bamako, Mali.

PubMed

Muthiani, Yvonne; Traoré, Abdallah; Mauti, Stephanie; Zinsstag, Jakob; Hattendorf, Jan

2015-06-15

Canine rabies remains an important public-health problem in Africa. Dog mass vaccination is the recommended method for rabies control and elimination. We report on the first small-scale mass dog vaccination campaign trial in Bamako, Mali. Our objective was to estimate coverage of the vaccination campaign and to quantify determinants of intervention effectiveness. In September 2013, a central point vaccination campaign--free of cost for dog owners--was carried out in 17 posts on three consecutive days within Bamako's Commune 1. Vaccination coverage and the proportion of ownerless dogs were estimated by combining mark-recapture household and transect surveys using Bayesian modeling. The estimated vaccination coverage was 17.6% (95% Credibility Interval, CI: 14.4-22.1%) which is far below the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended vaccination coverage of 70%. The Bayesian estimate for the owned dog population of Commune 1 was 3459 dogs (95% CI: 2786-4131) and the proportion of ownerless dogs was about 8%. The low coverage observed is primarily attributed to low participation by dog owners. Dog owners reported several reasons for not bringing their dogs to the vaccination posts. The most frequently reported reasons for non-attendance were lack of information (25%) and the inability to handle the dog (16%). For 37% of respondents, no clear reason was given for non-vaccination. Despite low coverage, the vaccination campaign in Bamako was relatively easy to implement, both in terms of logistics and organization. Almost half of the participating dog owners brought their pets on the first day of the campaign. Participatory stakeholder processes involving communities and local authorities are needed to identify effective communication channels and locally adapted vaccination strategies, which could include both central-point and door-to-door vaccination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

5 CFR 837.301 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Coverage. 837.301 Section 837.301...) REEMPLOYMENT OF ANNUITANTS Coverage and Contributions § 837.301 Coverage. (a) When annuity terminates on, or is suspended during, reemployment. Retirement coverage under either CSRS or FERS is governed by subpart B of...

5 CFR 837.301 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Coverage. 837.301 Section 837.301...) REEMPLOYMENT OF ANNUITANTS Coverage and Contributions § 837.301 Coverage. (a) When annuity terminates on, or is suspended during, reemployment. Retirement coverage under either CSRS or FERS is governed by subpart B of...

5 CFR 837.301 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Coverage. 837.301 Section 837.301...) REEMPLOYMENT OF ANNUITANTS Coverage and Contributions § 837.301 Coverage. (a) When annuity terminates on, or is suspended during, reemployment. Retirement coverage under either CSRS or FERS is governed by subpart B of...

5 CFR 890.1106 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Coverage. 890.1106 Section 890.1106... EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFITS PROGRAM Temporary Continuation of Coverage § 890.1106 Coverage. (a) Type of enrollment. An individual who enrolls under this subpart may elect coverage for self alone or self and family...

5 CFR 837.301 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 837.301 Section 837.301...) REEMPLOYMENT OF ANNUITANTS Coverage and Contributions § 837.301 Coverage. (a) When annuity terminates on, or is suspended during, reemployment. Retirement coverage under either CSRS or FERS is governed by subpart B of...

5 CFR 837.301 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Coverage. 837.301 Section 837.301...) REEMPLOYMENT OF ANNUITANTS Coverage and Contributions § 837.301 Coverage. (a) When annuity terminates on, or is suspended during, reemployment. Retirement coverage under either CSRS or FERS is governed by subpart B of...

5 CFR 890.1106 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Coverage. 890.1106 Section 890.1106... EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFITS PROGRAM Temporary Continuation of Coverage § 890.1106 Coverage. (a) Type of enrollment. An individual who enrolls under this subpart may elect coverage for self alone or self and family...

5 CFR 890.1106 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 890.1106 Section 890.1106... EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFITS PROGRAM Temporary Continuation of Coverage § 890.1106 Coverage. (a) Type of enrollment. An individual who enrolls under this subpart may elect coverage for self alone or self and family...

5 CFR 890.1106 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Coverage. 890.1106 Section 890.1106... EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFITS PROGRAM Temporary Continuation of Coverage § 890.1106 Coverage. (a) Type of enrollment. An individual who enrolls under this subpart may elect coverage for self alone or self and family...

Phase Variation of NadA in Invasive Neisseria meningitidis Isolates Impacts on Coverage Estimates for 4C-MenB, a MenB vaccine.

PubMed

Green, Luke R; Lucidarme, Jay; Dave, Neelam; Chan, Hannah; Clark, Stephen; Borrow, Ray; Bayliss, Christopher D

2018-06-27

A recombinant NadA protein is one of the four major protective antigens of 4C-MenB (Bexsero®), a vaccine developed for serogroup B Neisseria meningitidis (MenB). The Meningococcal Antigen Typing System (MATS) is utilised as a high throughput assay for assessing the invasive MenB strain coverage of 4C-MenB. Where present, the nadA gene is subject to phase variable changes in transcription due to a 5'TAAA repeat tract located in a regulatory region. The promoter-containing intergenic region sequences (IGR) and 5'TAAA repeat numbers were determined for 906 invasive meningococcal disease isolates possessing the nadA gene. Exclusion of the 5'TAAA repeats reduced the number of IGR alleles from 82 to 23. Repeat numbers were associated with low and high levels of NadA expression by Western blotting and ELISA. Low expression repeat numbers were present in 83% of 179 MenB isolates with NadA-2/3 or Nad-1 peptide variants and 68% of 480 MenW ST-11 complex isolates with Nad-2/3 peptide variants. For isolates with vaccine-compatible NadA variants, 93% of MATS negative isolates were associated with low expression repeat numbers whereas 63% of isolates with MATS RP scores above the 95% confidence interval for the positive bactericidal threshold had high expression repeat numbers. Analysis of the 5'TAAA repeat number has potential as a rapid, high throughput method for assessing strain coverage for the NadA-component of 4C-MenB. A key application will be assessing coverage in meningococcal disease cases where confirmation is by PCR only and MATS cannot be applied. Copyright © 2018 Green et al.

What is 'confidence' and what could affect it?: A qualitative study of mothers who are hesitant about vaccines.

PubMed

Mendel-Van Alstyne, Judith A; Nowak, Glen J; Aikin, Ann L

2017-09-09

Public confidence in immunization is critical to maintaining high vaccine-coverage rates needed to protect individuals and communities from vaccine-preventable diseases. Recent attention has been placed on factors influencing confidence in vaccination in the US and globally, but comprehensive understanding of what drives or hinders confidence in childhood vaccination is yet to be reached. As such, assessing parents' confidence in childhood vaccination and the ways in which educational materials affect confidence is needed. We sought to (1) learn how mothers who are hesitant about vaccination characterize confidence in health-related products for young children, including the recommended vaccines; (2) gain insights on what influences vaccine confidence beliefs; and (3) assess whether short, education materials affect parental confidence in childhood vaccinations. Eight moderator-lead focus groups (n=61), stratified by socioeconomic status, were undertaken with mothers of children 5years of age of less who are hesitant about vaccines. Four of the groups were held in the Philadelphia, PA area and four were held in the San Francisco/Oakland, CA area. Three educational material pairs, each consisting of a 2-3min video and an infographic poster about an immunization-related topic, were reviewed and assessed for influence on confidence. Qualitative data analysis was used to identify overarching themes across the focus groups. Themes, insights, and illustrative quotes were identified and provided for each of the major discussion areas: primary health concerns for young children; confidence beliefs and perceptions, including for recommended vaccines; facilitators and barriers to confidence; and reactions to the educational materials. Results provide helpful insights into how mothers who are hesitant about vaccines perceive confidence in childhood vaccines and health-related products, suggestions for how to improve confidence, and support for the value and use of short

Increasing the Coverage of Medicinal Chemistry-Relevant Space in Commercial Fragments Screening

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Analyzing the chemical space coverage in commercial fragment screening collections revealed the overlap between bioactive medicinal chemistry substructures and rule-of-three compliant fragments is only ∼25%. We recommend including these fragments in fragment screening libraries to maximize confidence in discovering hit matter within known bioactive chemical space, while incorporation of nonoverlapping substructures could offer novel hits in screening libraries. Using principal component analysis, polar and three-dimensional substructures display a higher-than-average enrichment of bioactive compounds, indicating increasing representation of these substructures may be beneficial in fragment screening. PMID:24405118

29 CFR 801.3 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 29 Labor 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Coverage. 801.3 Section 801.3 Labor Regulations Relating to... POLYGRAPH PROTECTION ACT OF 1988 General § 801.3 Coverage. (a) The coverage of the Act extends to “any... coverage to be coextensive with the full scope of the Congressional power to regulate commerce. See, for...

29 CFR 801.3 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 29 Labor 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Coverage. 801.3 Section 801.3 Labor Regulations Relating to... POLYGRAPH PROTECTION ACT OF 1988 General § 801.3 Coverage. (a) The coverage of the Act extends to “any... coverage to be coextensive with the full scope of the Congressional power to regulate commerce. See, for...

29 CFR 801.3 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 29 Labor 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Coverage. 801.3 Section 801.3 Labor Regulations Relating to... POLYGRAPH PROTECTION ACT OF 1988 General § 801.3 Coverage. (a) The coverage of the Act extends to “any... coverage to be coextensive with the full scope of the Congressional power to regulate commerce. See, for...

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Heterogeneity in coverage for measles and varicella vaccination in toddlers - analysis of factors influencing parental acceptance.

PubMed

Hagemann, Christine; Streng, Andrea; Kraemer, Alexander; Liese, Johannes G

2017-09-19

In 2004, routine varicella vaccination was introduced in Germany for children aged 11-14 months. Routine measles vaccination had already been introduced in 1973 for the same age group, but coverage is still too low (<95%) in some areas to eliminate measles. The present study assessed varicella and measles vaccination coverage and determinants of parental acceptance in two study regions, situated in Northern and Southern Bavaria (Germany). From 2009 to 2011, annual cross-sectional parent surveys were performed on random samples of 600 children aged 18-36 months in the Bavarian regions of both Munich and Würzburg. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with varicella and measles vaccination. In 2009, 2010 and 2011, vaccination coverage was lower in Munich than in Würzburg, for both varicella (Munich 53%, 67%, 69% vs. Würzburg 72%, 81%, 83%) and for measles (Munich 88%, 89%, 91% vs. Würzburg 92%, 93%, 95%). Recommendation by the physician was the main independent factor associated with varicella vaccination in both regions (adjusted odd ratios (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI): Munich OR 19.7, CI 13.6-28.6; Würzburg OR 34.7, CI 22.6-53.2). Attendance at a childcare unit was positively associated with a higher acceptance of varicella vaccination in Munich (OR 1.5, CI 1.1-2.2). Regarding measles vaccination, attendance at a childcare unit was positively associated in both regions (Munich OR 2.0; CI 1.3-3.0; Würzburg OR 1.8; CI 1.1-3.1), and a higher level of parental school education was negatively associated in Würzburg (OR 0.5, CI 0.3-0.9). Vaccination rates differed between regions, with rates constantly higher in Würzburg. Within each region, vaccination rates were lower for varicella than for measles. Measles vaccination status was mainly dependent upon socio-demographic factors (attendance at a childcare unit, parental school education), whereas for the more recently introduced varicella vaccination recommendation by the

Dynamic visual noise reduces confidence in short-term memory for visual information.

PubMed

Kemps, Eva; Andrade, Jackie

2012-05-01

Previous research has shown effects of the visual interference technique, dynamic visual noise (DVN), on visual imagery, but not on visual short-term memory, unless retention of precise visual detail is required. This study tested the prediction that DVN does also affect retention of gross visual information, specifically by reducing confidence. Participants performed a matrix pattern memory task with three retention interval interference conditions (DVN, static visual noise and no interference control) that varied from trial to trial. At recall, participants indicated whether or not they were sure of their responses. As in previous research, DVN did not impair recall accuracy or latency on the task, but it did reduce recall confidence relative to static visual noise and no interference. We conclude that DVN does distort visual representations in short-term memory, but standard coarse-grained recall measures are insensitive to these distortions.

Individual, Cultural and Structural Predictors of Vaccine Safety Confidence and Influenza Vaccination Among Hispanic Female Subgroups.

PubMed

Moran, Meghan Bridgid; Chatterjee, Joyee S; Frank, Lauren B; Murphy, Sheila T; Zhao, Nan; Chen, Nancy; Ball-Rokeach, Sandra

2017-08-01

Rates of influenza vaccination among US Hispanics are lower than for non-Hispanic whites, yet little is known about factors affecting vaccination in this population. Additionally, although Hispanics are a diverse population with culturally distinct subgroups, they are often treated as a homogenous population. This study (1) examines how confidence in vaccine safety and influenza vaccine use vary by Hispanic subgroup and (2) identifies individual, cultural and structural correlates of these outcomes. This study analyzed survey data from 1565 Hispanic women who were recruited at clinic- and community-based sites in Los Angeles. Education, healthcare coverage, acculturation, fatalism, and religiosity were predictors of influenza vaccination behavior and predictors varied by subgroup. These findings provide guidance for how influenza vaccine promotion efforts can be developed for Hispanic subgroups. Confidence in the safety of a vaccine is a major predictor of flu vaccination and an important modifiable target for intervention.

Five-Year Risk of Interval-Invasive Second Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Buist, Diana S. M.; Houssami, Nehmat; Dowling, Emily C.; Halpern, Elkan F.; Gazelle, G. Scott; Lehman, Constance D.; Henderson, Louise M.; Hubbard, Rebecca A.

2015-01-01

Background: Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles. Methods: We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers. Conclusions: PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans. PMID:25904721

Confidence to cook vegetables and the buying habits of Australian households.

PubMed

Winkler, Elisabeth; Turrell, Gavin

2009-10-01

Cooking skills are emphasized in nutrition promotion but their distribution among population subgroups and relationship to dietary behavior is researched by few population-based studies. This study examined the relationships between confidence to cook, sociodemographic characteristics, and household vegetable purchasing. This cross-sectional study of 426 randomly selected households in Brisbane, Australia, used a validated questionnaire to assess household vegetable purchasing habits and the confidence to cook of the person who most often prepares food for these households. The mutually adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of lacking confidence to cook were assessed across a range of demographic subgroups using multiple logistic regression models. Similarly, mutually adjusted mean vegetable purchasing scores were calculated using multiple linear regression for different population groups and for respondents with varying confidence levels. Lacking confidence to cook using a variety of techniques was more common among respondents with less education (OR 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 10.75) and was less common among respondents who lived with minors (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.53) and other adults (OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.78). Lack of confidence to prepare vegetables was associated with being male (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.24 to 4.08), low education (OR 6.60; 95% CI 2.08 to 20.91), lower household income (OR 2.98; 95% CI 1.02 to 8.72) and living with other adults (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.98). Households bought a greater variety of vegetables on a regular basis when the main chef was confident to prepare them (difference: 18.60; 95% CI 14.66 to 22.54), older (difference: 8.69; 95% CI 4.92 to 12.47), lived with at least one other adult (difference: 5.47; 95% CI 2.82 to 8.12) or at least one minor (difference: 2.86; 95% CI 0.17 to 5.55). Cooking skills may contribute to socioeconomic dietary differences, and may be a useful strategy for promoting fruit and vegetable

Annual immunisation coverage report, 2010.

PubMed

Hull, Brynley; Dey, Aditi; Menzies, Rob; McIntyre, Peter

2013-03-31

This, the fourth annual immunisation coverage report, documents trends during 2010 for a range of standard measures derived from Australian Childhood Immunisation Register (ACIR) data. These include coverage at standard age milestones and for individual vaccines included on the National Immunisation Program (NIP). For the first time, coverage from other sources for adolescents and the elderly are included. The proportion of children 'fully vaccinated' at 12, 24 and 60 months of age was 91.6%, 92.1% and 89.1% respectively. For vaccines available on the NIP but not currently assessed for 'fully immunised' status or for eligibility for incentive payments (rotavirus and pneumococcal at 12 months and meningococcal C and varicella at 24 months) coverage varied. Although pneumococcal vaccine had similar coverage at 12 months to other vaccines, coverage was lower for rotavirus at 12 months (84.7%) and varicella at 24 months (83.0%). Overall coverage at 24 months of age exceeded that at 12 months of age nationally and for most jurisdictions, but as receipt of varicella vaccine at 18 months is excluded from calculations, this represents delayed immunisation, with some contribution from immunisation incentives. The 'fully immunised' coverage estimates for immunisations due by 60 months increased substantially in 2009, reaching almost 90% in 2010, probably related to completed immunisation by 60 months of age being introduced in 2009 as a requirement for GP incentive payments. As previously documented, vaccines recommended for Indigenous children only (hepatitis A and pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine) had suboptimal coverage at around 57%. Delayed receipt of vaccines by Indigenous children at the 60-month milestone age improved from 56% to 62% but the disparity in on-time vaccination between Indigenous and non-Indigenous children at earlier age milestones did not improve. Coverage data for human papillomavirus (HPV)from the national HPV register are consistent with high

The Affordable Care Act, Insurance Coverage, and Health Care Utilization of Previously Incarcerated Young Men: 2008-2015.

PubMed

Winkelman, Tyler N A; Choi, HwaJung; Davis, Matthew M

2017-05-01

To estimate health insurance and health care utilization patterns among previously incarcerated men following implementation of the Affordable Care Act's (ACA's) Medicaid expansion and Marketplace plans in 2014. We performed serial cross-sectional analyses using data from the National Survey of Family Growth between 2008 and 2015. Our sample included men aged 18 to 44 years with (n = 3476) and without (n = 8702) a history of incarceration. Uninsurance declined significantly among previously incarcerated men after ACA implementation (-5.9 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -11.5, -0.4), primarily because of an increase in private insurance (6.8 percentage points; 95% CI = 0.1, 13.3). Previously incarcerated men accounted for a large proportion of the remaining uninsured (38.6%) in 2014 to 2015. Following ACA implementation, previously incarcerated men continued to be significantly less likely to report a regular source of primary care and more likely to report emergency department use than were never-incarcerated peers. Health insurance coverage improved among previously incarcerated men following ACA implementation. However, these men account for a substantial proportion of the remaining uninsured. Previously incarcerated men continue to lack primary care and frequently utilize acute care services.

7 CFR 1437.5 - Coverage period.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 10 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Coverage period. 1437.5 Section 1437.5 Agriculture... Provisions § 1437.5 Coverage period. (a) The coverage period is the time during which coverage is available against loss of production of the eligible crop as a result of natural disaster. (b) The coverage period...

Age-dependent biochemical quantities: an approach for calculating reference intervals.

PubMed

Bjerner, J

2007-01-01

A parametric method is often preferred when calculating reference intervals for biochemical quantities, as non-parametric methods are less efficient and require more observations/study subjects. Parametric methods are complicated, however, because of three commonly encountered features. First, biochemical quantities seldom display a Gaussian distribution, and there must either be a transformation procedure to obtain such a distribution or a more complex distribution has to be used. Second, biochemical quantities are often dependent on a continuous covariate, exemplified by rising serum concentrations of MUC1 (episialin, CA15.3) with increasing age. Third, outliers often exert substantial influence on parametric estimations and therefore need to be excluded before calculations are made. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) currently recommends that confidence intervals be calculated for the reference centiles obtained. However, common statistical packages allowing for the adjustment of a continuous covariate do not make this calculation. In the method described in the current study, Tukey's fence is used to eliminate outliers and two-stage transformations (modulus-exponential-normal) in order to render Gaussian distributions. Fractional polynomials are employed to model functions for mean and standard deviations dependent on a covariate, and the model is selected by maximum likelihood. Confidence intervals are calculated for the fitted centiles by combining parameter estimation and sampling uncertainties. Finally, the elimination of outliers was made dependent on covariates by reiteration. Though a good knowledge of statistical theory is needed when performing the analysis, the current method is rewarding because the results are of practical use in patient care.

Change in Breast Cancer Screening Intervals Since the 2009 USPSTF Guideline.

PubMed

Wernli, Karen J; Arao, Robert F; Hubbard, Rebecca A; Sprague, Brian L; Alford-Teaster, Jennifer; Haas, Jennifer S; Henderson, Louise; Hill, Deidre; Lee, Christoph I; Tosteson, Anna N A; Onega, Tracy

2017-08-01

In 2009, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended biennial mammography for women aged 50-74 years and shared decision-making for women aged 40-49 years for breast cancer screening. We evaluated changes in mammography screening interval after the 2009 recommendations. We conducted a prospective cohort study of women aged 40-74 years who received 821,052 screening mammograms between 2006 and 2012 using data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We compared changes in screening intervals and stratified intervals based on whether the mammogram at the end of the interval occurred before or after the 2009 recommendation. Differences in mean interval length by woman-level characteristics were compared using linear regression. The mean interval (in months) minimally decreased after the 2009 USPSTF recommendations. Among women aged 40-49 years, the mean interval decreased from 17.2 months to 17.1 months (difference -0.16%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.30 to -0.01). Similar small reductions were seen for most age groups. The largest change in interval length in the post-USPSTF period was declines among women with a first-degree family history of breast cancer (difference -0.68%, 95% CI -0.82 to -0.54) or a 5-year breast cancer risk ≥2.5% (difference -0.58%, 95% CI -0.73 to -0.44). The 2009 USPSTF recommendation did not lengthen the average mammography interval among women routinely participating in mammography screening. Future studies should evaluate whether breast cancer screening intervals lengthen toward biennial intervals following new national 2016 breast cancer screening recommendations, particularly among women less than 50 years of age.

NSW annual immunisation coverage report, 2011.

PubMed

Hull, Brynley; Dey, Aditi; Campbell-Lloyd, Sue; Menzies, Robert I; McIntyre, Peter B

2012-12-01

This annual report, the third in the series, documents trends in immunisation coverage in NSW for children, adolescents and the elderly, to the end of 2011. Data from the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register, the NSW School Immunisation Program and the NSW Population Health Survey were used to calculate various measures of population coverage. During 2011, greater than 90% coverage was maintained for children at 12 and 24 months of age. For children at 5 years of age the improvement seen in 2010 was sustained, with coverage at or near 90%. For adolescents, there was improved coverage for all doses of human papillomavirus vaccine, both doses of hepatitis B vaccine, varicella vaccine and the dose of diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis given to school attendees in Years 7 and 10. Pneumococcal vaccination coverage in the elderly has been steadily rising, although it has remained lower than the influenza coverage estimates. This report provides trends in immunisation coverage in NSW across the age spectrum. The inclusion of coverage estimates for the pneumococcal conjugate, varicella and meningococcal C vaccines in the official coverage assessments for 'fully immunised' in 2013 is a welcome initiative.

Evaluating Childhood Vaccination Coverage of NIP Vaccines: Coverage Survey versus Zhejiang Provincial Immunization Information System

PubMed Central

Hu, Yu; Chen, Yaping

2017-01-01

Vaccination coverage in Zhejiang province, east China, is evaluated through repeated coverage surveys. The Zhejiang provincial immunization information system (ZJIIS) was established in 2004 with links to all immunization clinics. ZJIIS has become an alternative to quickly assess the vaccination coverage. To assess the current completeness and accuracy on the vaccination coverage derived from ZJIIS, we compared the estimates from ZJIIS with the estimates from the most recent provincial coverage survey in 2014, which combined interview data with verified data from ZJIIS. Of the enrolled 2772 children in the 2014 provincial survey, the proportions of children with vaccination cards and registered in ZJIIS were 94.0% and 87.4%, respectively. Coverage estimates from ZJIIS were systematically higher than the corresponding estimates obtained through the survey, with a mean difference of 4.5%. Of the vaccination doses registered in ZJIIS, 16.7% differed from the date recorded in the corresponding vaccination cards. Under-registration in ZJIIS significantly influenced the coverage estimates derived from ZJIIS. Therefore, periodic coverage surveys currently provide more complete and reliable results than the estimates based on ZJIIS alone. However, further improvement of completeness and accuracy of ZJIIS will likely allow more reliable and timely estimates in future. PMID:28696387

Evaluating Childhood Vaccination Coverage of NIP Vaccines: Coverage Survey versus Zhejiang Provincial Immunization Information System.

PubMed

Hu, Yu; Chen, Yaping

2017-07-11

Vaccination coverage in Zhejiang province, east China, is evaluated through repeated coverage surveys. The Zhejiang provincial immunization information system (ZJIIS) was established in 2004 with links to all immunization clinics. ZJIIS has become an alternative to quickly assess the vaccination coverage. To assess the current completeness and accuracy on the vaccination coverage derived from ZJIIS, we compared the estimates from ZJIIS with the estimates from the most recent provincial coverage survey in 2014, which combined interview data with verified data from ZJIIS. Of the enrolled 2772 children in the 2014 provincial survey, the proportions of children with vaccination cards and registered in ZJIIS were 94.0% and 87.4%, respectively. Coverage estimates from ZJIIS were systematically higher than the corresponding estimates obtained through the survey, with a mean difference of 4.5%. Of the vaccination doses registered in ZJIIS, 16.7% differed from the date recorded in the corresponding vaccination cards. Under-registration in ZJIIS significantly influenced the coverage estimates derived from ZJIIS. Therefore, periodic coverage surveys currently provide more complete and reliable results than the estimates based on ZJIIS alone. However, further improvement of completeness and accuracy of ZJIIS will likely allow more reliable and timely estimates in future.

A comparison of confidence/credible interval methods for the area under the ROC curve for continuous diagnostic tests with small sample size.

PubMed

Feng, Dai; Cortese, Giuliana; Baumgartner, Richard

2017-12-01

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is frequently used as a measure of accuracy of continuous markers in diagnostic tests. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is arguably the most widely used summary index for the ROC curve. Although the small sample size scenario is common in medical tests, a comprehensive study of small sample size properties of various methods for the construction of the confidence/credible interval (CI) for the AUC has been by and large missing in the literature. In this paper, we describe and compare 29 non-parametric and parametric methods for the construction of the CI for the AUC when the number of available observations is small. The methods considered include not only those that have been widely adopted, but also those that have been less frequently mentioned or, to our knowledge, never applied to the AUC context. To compare different methods, we carried out a simulation study with data generated from binormal models with equal and unequal variances and from exponential models with various parameters and with equal and unequal small sample sizes. We found that the larger the true AUC value and the smaller the sample size, the larger the discrepancy among the results of different approaches. When the model is correctly specified, the parametric approaches tend to outperform the non-parametric ones. Moreover, in the non-parametric domain, we found that a method based on the Mann-Whitney statistic is in general superior to the others. We further elucidate potential issues and provide possible solutions to along with general guidance on the CI construction for the AUC when the sample size is small. Finally, we illustrate the utility of different methods through real life examples.

Forecasted trends in vaccination coverage and correlations with socioeconomic factors: a global time-series analysis over 30 years.

PubMed

de Figueiredo, Alexandre; Johnston, Iain G; Smith, David M D; Agarwal, Sumeet; Larson, Heidi J; Jones, Nick S

2016-10-01

Incomplete immunisation coverage causes preventable illness and death in both developing and developed countries. Identification of factors that might modulate coverage could inform effective immunisation programmes and policies. We constructed a performance indicator that could quantitatively approximate measures of the susceptibility of immunisation programmes to coverage losses, with an aim to identify correlations between trends in vaccine coverage and socioeconomic factors. We undertook a data-driven time-series analysis to examine trends in coverage of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP) vaccination across 190 countries over the past 30 years. We grouped countries into six world regions according to WHO classifications. We used Gaussian process regression to forecast future coverage rates and provide a vaccine performance index: a summary measure of the strength of immunisation coverage in a country. Overall vaccine coverage increased in all six world regions between 1980 and 2010, with variation in volatility and trends. Our vaccine performance index identified that 53 countries had more than a 50% chance of missing the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) target of 90% worldwide coverage with three doses of DTP (DTP3) by 2015. These countries were mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, but Austria and Ukraine also featured. Factors associated with DTP3 immunisation coverage varied by world region: personal income (Spearman's ρ=0·66, p=0·0011) and government health spending (0·66, p<0·0001) were informative of immunisation coverage in the Eastern Mediterranean between 1980 and 2010, whereas primary school completion was informative of coverage in Africa (0·56, p<0·0001) over the same period. The proportion of births attended by skilled health staff correlated significantly with immunisation coverage across many world regions. Our vaccine performance index highlighted countries at risk of failing to achieve the GVAP target of 90% coverage by

42 CFR 457.450 - Secretary-approved coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Secretary-approved coverage. 457.450 Section 457... Requirements: Coverage and Benefits § 457.450 Secretary-approved coverage. Secretary-approved coverage is health benefits coverage that, in the determination of the Secretary, provides appropriate coverage for...

42 CFR 457.450 - Secretary-approved coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Secretary-approved coverage. 457.450 Section 457... Requirements: Coverage and Benefits § 457.450 Secretary-approved coverage. Secretary-approved coverage is health benefits coverage that, in the determination of the Secretary, provides appropriate coverage for...

The idiosyncratic nature of confidence

PubMed Central

Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

2017-01-01

Confidence is the ‘feeling of knowing’ that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence. PMID:29152591

Statistical inference for the within-device precision of quantitative measurements in assay validation.

PubMed

Liu, Jen-Pei; Lu, Li-Tien; Liao, C T

2009-09-01

Intermediate precision is one of the most important characteristics for evaluation of precision in assay validation. The current methods for evaluation of within-device precision recommended by the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) guideline EP5-A2 are based on the point estimator. On the other hand, in addition to point estimators, confidence intervals can provide a range for the within-device precision with a probability statement. Therefore, we suggest a confidence interval approach for assessment of the within-device precision. Furthermore, under the two-stage nested random-effects model recommended by the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2, in addition to the current Satterthwaite's approximation and the modified large sample (MLS) methods, we apply the technique of generalized pivotal quantities (GPQ) to derive the confidence interval for the within-device precision. The data from the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2 illustrate the applications of the confidence interval approach and comparison of results between the three methods. Results of a simulation study on the coverage probability and expected length of the three methods are reported. The proposed method of the GPQ-based confidence intervals is also extended to consider the between-laboratories variation for precision assessment.

Effect of Expanding Medicaid for Parents on Children’s Health Insurance Coverage

PubMed Central

DeVoe, Jennifer E.; Marino, Miguel; Angier, Heather; O’Malley, Jean P.; Crawford, Courtney; Nelson, Christine; Tillotson, Carrie J.; Bailey, Steffani R.; Gallia, Charles; Gold, Rachel

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE In the United States, health insurance is not universal. Observational studies show an association between uninsured parents and children. This association persisted even after expansions in child-only public health insurance. Oregon’s randomized Medicaid expansion for adults, known as the Oregon Experiment, created a rare opportunity to assess causality between parent and child coverage. OBJECTIVE To estimate the effect on a child’s health insurance coverage status when (1) a parent randomly gains access to health insurance and (2) a parent obtains coverage. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Oregon Experiment randomized natural experiment assessing the results of Oregon’s 2008 Medicaid expansion. We used generalized estimating equation models to examine the longitudinal effect of a parent randomly selected to apply for Medicaid on their child’s Medicaid or Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) coverage (intent-to-treat analyses). We used per-protocol analyses to understand the impact on children’s coverage when a parent was randomly selected to apply for and obtained Medicaid. Participants included 14 409 children aged 2 to 18 years whose parents participated in the Oregon Experiment. EXPOSURES For intent-to-treat analyses, the date a parent was selected to apply for Medicaid was considered the date the child was exposed to the intervention. In per-protocol analyses, exposure was defined as whether a selected parent obtained Medicaid. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Children’s Medicaid or CHIP coverage, assessed monthly and in 6-month intervals relative to their parent’s selection date. RESULTS In the immediate period after selection, children whose parents were selected to apply significantly increased from 3830 (61.4%) to 4152 (66.6%) compared with a nonsignificant change from 5049 (61.8%) to 5044 (61.7%) for children whose parents were not selected to apply. Children whose parents were randomly selected to apply for Medicaid had 18

Tennessee health plan tobacco cessation coverage.

PubMed

Kolade, Folasade M

2014-01-01

To evaluate the smoking cessation coverage available from public and private Tennessee health plans. Cross-sectional study. The sampling frame for private plans was a register of licensed plans obtained from the Tennessee Commerce Department. Government websites and reports provided TennCare data. Data were abstracted from plan manuals and formularies for benefit year 2012. Classification of coverage included comprehensive-all seven recommended medications plus individual and group counseling; moderate-at least two forms of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) plus bupropion and varenicline and one form of counseling; inadequate-at least one treatment, or none-no medications or counseling, or coverage only for pregnant women. Of nine private plans, one provided comprehensive coverage; two, moderate coverage; four, inadequate coverage, as did TennCare; and two plans provided no coverage. Over 362,800 smokers had inadequate access to cessation treatments under TennCare, while 119,094 smokers had inadequate or no cessation coverage under private plans. In 2012, Tennessee fell short of Healthy People goals for total managed care and comprehensive TennCare coverage of smoking cessation. If Tennessee mandates that all health plans provide full coverage, 481,900 smokers may immediately be in a better position to quit. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Coverage Metrics for Model Checking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Penix, John; Visser, Willem; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

When using model checking to verify programs in practice, it is not usually possible to achieve complete coverage of the system. In this position paper we describe ongoing research within the Automated Software Engineering group at NASA Ames on the use of test coverage metrics to measure partial coverage and provide heuristic guidance for program model checking. We are specifically interested in applying and developing coverage metrics for concurrent programs that might be used to support certification of next generation avionics software.

5 CFR 530.303 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Coverage. 530.303 Section 530.303...) Special Rate Schedules for Recruitment and Retention General Provisions § 530.303 Coverage. (a) Under 5 U... coverage criteria specifically state otherwise. OPM will establish special rate schedules covering...

5 CFR 9701.402 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.402 Section 9701.402... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Performance Management § 9701.402 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to eligible DHS... following employees are eligible for coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees who would otherwise be...

5 CFR 300.603 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Coverage. 300.603 Section 300.603 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS EMPLOYMENT (GENERAL) Time-In-Grade Restrictions § 300.603 Coverage. (a) Coverage. This subpart applies to advancement to a General...

5 CFR 9701.402 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.402 Section 9701.402... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Performance Management § 9701.402 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to eligible DHS... following employees are eligible for coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees who would otherwise be...

5 CFR 530.303 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Coverage. 530.303 Section 530.303...) Special Rate Schedules for Recruitment and Retention General Provisions § 530.303 Coverage. (a) Under 5 U... coverage criteria specifically state otherwise. OPM will establish special rate schedules covering...

5 CFR 9901.402 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Coverage. 9901.402 Section 9901.402... (NSPS) Performance Management § 9901.402 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to eligible employees and... are eligible for coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees and positions that would otherwise be...

5 CFR 300.603 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Coverage. 300.603 Section 300.603 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS EMPLOYMENT (GENERAL) Time-In-Grade Restrictions § 300.603 Coverage. (a) Coverage. This subpart applies to advancement to a General...

5 CFR 9701.402 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.402 Section 9701.402... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Performance Management § 9701.402 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to eligible DHS... following employees are eligible for coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees who would otherwise be...

5 CFR 9901.402 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 9901.402 Section 9901.402... (NSPS) Performance Management § 9901.402 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to eligible employees and... are eligible for coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees and positions that would otherwise be...

5 CFR 530.303 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Coverage. 530.303 Section 530.303...) Special Rate Schedules for Recruitment and Retention General Provisions § 530.303 Coverage. (a) Under 5 U... coverage criteria specifically state otherwise. OPM will establish special rate schedules covering...

5 CFR 530.303 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Coverage. 530.303 Section 530.303...) Special Rate Schedules for Recruitment and Retention General Provisions § 530.303 Coverage. (a) Under 5 U... coverage criteria specifically state otherwise. OPM will establish special rate schedules covering...

5 CFR 9701.402 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.402 Section 9701.402... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Performance Management § 9701.402 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to eligible DHS... following employees are eligible for coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees who would otherwise be...

5 CFR 530.303 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 530.303 Section 530.303...) Special Rate Schedules for Recruitment and Retention General Provisions § 530.303 Coverage. (a) Under 5 U... coverage criteria specifically state otherwise. OPM will establish special rate schedules covering...

5 CFR 300.603 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Coverage. 300.603 Section 300.603 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS EMPLOYMENT (GENERAL) Time-In-Grade Restrictions § 300.603 Coverage. (a) Coverage. This subpart applies to advancement to a General...

5 CFR 300.603 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Coverage. 300.603 Section 300.603 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS EMPLOYMENT (GENERAL) Time-In-Grade Restrictions § 300.603 Coverage. (a) Coverage. This subpart applies to advancement to a General...

Bundled automobile insurance coverage and accidents.

PubMed

Li, Chu-Shiu; Liu, Chwen-Chi; Peng, Sheng-Chang

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the characteristics of automobile accidents by taking into account two types of automobile insurance coverage: comprehensive vehicle physical damage insurance and voluntary third-party liability insurance. By using a unique data set in the Taiwanese automobile insurance market, we explore the bundled automobile insurance coverage and the occurrence of claims. It is shown that vehicle physical damage insurance is the major automobile coverage and affects the decision to purchase voluntary liability insurance coverage as a complement. Moreover, policyholders with high vehicle physical damage insurance coverage have a significantly higher probability of filing vehicle damage claims, and if they additionally purchase low voluntary liability insurance coverage, their accident claims probability is higher than those who purchase high voluntary liability insurance coverage. Our empirical results reveal that additional automobile insurance coverage information can capture more driver characteristics and driving behaviors to provide useful information for insurers' underwriting policies and to help analyze the occurrence of automobile accidents. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shape-based retrieval of CNV regions in read coverage data.

PubMed

Hong, Sangkyun; Yoon, Jeehee; Hong, Dongwan; Lee, Unjoo; Kim, Baeksop; Park, Sanghyun

2014-01-01

This study proposes a novel copy number variation (CNV) detection method, CNV_shape, based on variations in the shape of the read coverage data which are obtained from millions of short reads aligned to a reference sequence. The proposed method carries out two transforms, mean shift transform and mean slope transform, to extract the shape of a CNV more precisely from real human data, which are vulnerable to experimental and biological noises. The mean shift transform is a procedure for gaining a preliminary estimation of the CNVs by statistically evaluating moving averages of given read coverage data. The mean slope transform extracts candidate CNVs by filtering out non-stationary sub-regions from each of the primary CNVs pre-estimated in the mean shift procedure. Each of the candidate CNVs is merged with neighbours depending on the merging score to be finally identified as a putative CNV, where the merging score is estimated by the ratio of the positions with non-zero values of the mean shift transform to the total length of the region including two neighbouring candidate CNVs and the interval between them. The proposed CNV detection method was validated experimentally with simulated data and real human data. The simulated data with coverage in the range of 1x to 10x were generated for various sampling sizes and p-values. Five individual human genomes were used as real human data. The results show that relatively small CNVs (> 1 kbp) can be detected from low coverage (> 1.7x) data. The results also reveal that, in contrast to conventional methods, performance improvement from 8.18 to 87.90% was achieved in CNV_shape. The outcomes suggest that the proposed method is very effective in reducing noises inherent in real data as well as in detecting CNVs of various sizes and types.

Coverage and Influencing Determinants of Influenza Vaccination in Elderly Patients in a Country with a Poor Vaccination Implementation.

PubMed

Ganczak, Maria; Gil, Karolina; Korzeń, Marcin; Bażydło, Marta

2017-06-20

The seasonal influenza vaccination uptake of the elderly in Poland is one of the lowest in Europe. Objective : to assess the vaccination coverage and influencing determinants in patients ≥65 years of age. A cross-sectional study was conducted (November 2015-April 2016) among consecutive patients admitted to a municipal hospital located in the city of Szczecin, North-west Poland. Patients completed researcher-administered, anonymous questionnaires on socio- demographic data/factors related to the vaccination. Results : The response rate: 92.0%. Among 230 patients (79.6% women, median of age 69 years, range 65-89) who agreed to participate, 34.8% (95% Confidence Interval: 28.6-41.0%) were vaccinated. About 15.7% of respondents had not previously heard about the vaccination; 41.3% of those who stated they were vaccinated or planned on being vaccinated the following year, compared to 19.3% of respondents who stated they were not currently vaccinated ( p < 0.001). A multivariable regression analysis revealed that patient factors, such as younger age (Odds Ratio, OR = 7.69), living in the urban area (OR = 7.69), having comorbidities (OR = 2.70), having a vaccinated family member (OR = 3.57), and being informed about vaccination (OR = 5.00) were each associated with greater odds of being immunized. Willingness for vaccination the next year was strongly associated (OR = 8.59) with vaccination status. Conclusions : The influenza vaccination uptake in the elderly population in Poland is disturbingly low. Improved education strategies are needed to increase the uptake. Vaccinated respondents are more likely to plan on being vaccinated the following year. Future interventions related to maximizing vaccination coverage should be more tailored, focusing especially on older patients living in rural areas.

5 CFR 847.415 - OASDI coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false OASDI coverage. 847.415 Section 847.415...) ELECTIONS OF RETIREMENT COVERAGE BY CURRENT AND FORMER EMPLOYEES OF NONAPPROPRIATED FUND INSTRUMENTALITIES Elections of Coverage Under the Retroactive Provisions Elections of Csrs Or Fers Coverage Based on A Move...

5 CFR 847.415 - OASDI coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false OASDI coverage. 847.415 Section 847.415...) ELECTIONS OF RETIREMENT COVERAGE BY CURRENT AND FORMER EMPLOYEES OF NONAPPROPRIATED FUND INSTRUMENTALITIES Elections of Coverage Under the Retroactive Provisions Elections of Csrs Or Fers Coverage Based on A Move...

5 CFR 847.415 - OASDI coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false OASDI coverage. 847.415 Section 847.415...) ELECTIONS OF RETIREMENT COVERAGE BY CURRENT AND FORMER EMPLOYEES OF NONAPPROPRIATED FUND INSTRUMENTALITIES Elections of Coverage Under the Retroactive Provisions Elections of Csrs Or Fers Coverage Based on A Move...

14 CFR 205.5 - Minimum coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Minimum coverage. 205.5 Section 205.5... REGULATIONS AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT LIABILITY INSURANCE § 205.5 Minimum coverage. (a) Insurance contracts and self... maintain the following coverage: (1) Third-party aircraft accident liability coverage for bodily injury to...

5 CFR 9901.503 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 9901.503 Section 9901.503... (NSPS) Staffing and Employment General § 9901.503 Coverage. (a) At his or her sole and exclusive... in DoD organizational and functional units are eligible for coverage under this subpart: (1...

5 CFR 9701.302 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.302 Section 9701.302... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Pay and Pay Administration General § 9701.302 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to... coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees who would otherwise be covered by the General Schedule pay...

5 CFR 734.401 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 734.401 Section 734.401...) POLITICAL ACTIVITIES OF FEDERAL EMPLOYEES Employees in Certain Agencies and Positions § 734.401 Coverage. (a... agencies and positions described in paragraph (a) of this section are excluded from coverage under this...

5 CFR 9701.302 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.302 Section 9701.302... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Pay and Pay Administration General § 9701.302 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to... coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees who would otherwise be covered by the General Schedule pay...

5 CFR 9701.202 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.202 Section 9701.202... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification General § 9701.202 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to eligible DHS... or designee under § 9701.102(b). (b) The following employees and positions are eligible for coverage...

5 CFR 430.202 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Coverage. 430.202 Section 430.202... Performance Appraisal for General Schedule, Prevailing Rate, and Certain Other Employees § 430.202 Coverage..., coverage includes, but is not limited to, senior-level and scientific and professional employees paid under...

5 CFR 734.401 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Coverage. 734.401 Section 734.401...) POLITICAL ACTIVITIES OF FEDERAL EMPLOYEES Employees in Certain Agencies and Positions § 734.401 Coverage. (a... agencies and positions described in paragraph (a) of this section are excluded from coverage under this...

5 CFR 351.202 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Coverage. 351.202 Section 351.202... Provisions § 351.202 Coverage. (a) Employees covered. Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section... administrative body to be covered hereunder. Coverage includes administrative law judges except as modified by...

5 CFR 9701.505 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.505 Section 9701.505... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.505 Coverage. (a) Employees covered. This subpart applies....S.C. chapter 71 are eligible for coverage under this subpart. In addition, this subpart applies to...

5 CFR 9901.202 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 9901.202 Section 9901.202... (NSPS) Classification General § 9901.202 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to eligible DoD employees... functional units are eligible for coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees and positions that would...

5 CFR 734.401 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Coverage. 734.401 Section 734.401...) POLITICAL ACTIVITIES OF FEDERAL EMPLOYEES Employees in Certain Agencies and Positions § 734.401 Coverage. (a... agencies and positions described in paragraph (a) of this section are excluded from coverage under this...

5 CFR 9701.505 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.505 Section 9701.505... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.505 Coverage. (a) Employees covered. This subpart applies....S.C. chapter 71 are eligible for coverage under this subpart. In addition, this subpart applies to...

5 CFR 430.202 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Coverage. 430.202 Section 430.202... Performance Appraisal for General Schedule, Prevailing Rate, and Certain Other Employees § 430.202 Coverage..., coverage includes, but is not limited to, senior-level and scientific and professional employees paid under...

5 CFR 9901.202 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Coverage. 9901.202 Section 9901.202... (NSPS) Classification General § 9901.202 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to eligible DoD employees... functional units are eligible for coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees and positions that would...

5 CFR 9701.202 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.202 Section 9701.202... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification General § 9701.202 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to eligible DHS... or designee under § 9701.102(b). (b) The following employees and positions are eligible for coverage...

5 CFR 430.202 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Coverage. 430.202 Section 430.202... Performance Appraisal for General Schedule, Prevailing Rate, and Certain Other Employees § 430.202 Coverage..., coverage includes, but is not limited to, senior-level and scientific and professional employees paid under...

5 CFR 9701.302 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.302 Section 9701.302... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Pay and Pay Administration General § 9701.302 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to... coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees who would otherwise be covered by the General Schedule pay...

5 CFR 9901.503 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Coverage. 9901.503 Section 9901.503... (NSPS) Staffing and Employment General § 9901.503 Coverage. (a) At his or her sole and exclusive... in DoD organizational and functional units are eligible for coverage under this subpart: (1...

5 CFR 9701.302 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.302 Section 9701.302... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Pay and Pay Administration General § 9701.302 Coverage. (a) This subpart applies to... coverage under this subpart: (1) Employees who would otherwise be covered by the General Schedule pay...

5 CFR 351.202 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Coverage. 351.202 Section 351.202... Provisions § 351.202 Coverage. (a) Employees covered. Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section... administrative body to be covered hereunder. Coverage includes administrative law judges except as modified by...

5 CFR 9701.505 - Coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Coverage. 9701.505 Section 9701.505... MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.505 Coverage. (a) Employees covered. This subpart applies....S.C. chapter 71 are eligible for coverage under this subpart. In addition, this subpart applies to...

5 CFR 351.202 - Coverage.