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Sample records for contagious disease spread

  1. Early detection of contagious diseases

    DOEpatents

    Colston, Jr., Billy W.; Milanovich, Fred P.; Estacio, Pedro; Chang, John

    2011-08-09

    This invention provides an electronic proximity apparatus and a surveillance method using such an apparatus for alerting individuals that are exposed to a contagious disease. When a person becomes symptomatic and is diagnosed as positive for a given contagious agent, individuals that have recently maintained a threshold proximity with respect to an infected individual are notified and advised to seek immediate medial care. Treatment of individuals in the very early phases of infection (pre-symptomatic) significantly reduces contagiousness of the infected population first exposed to the contagious disease, thus preventing spread of the disease throughout the general population.

  2. Random modelling of contagious diseases.

    PubMed

    Demongeot, J; Hansen, O; Hessami, H; Jannot, A S; Mintsa, J; Rachdi, M; Taramasco, C

    2013-03-01

    Modelling contagious diseases needs to include a mechanistic knowledge about contacts between hosts and pathogens as specific as possible, e.g., by incorporating in the model information about social networks through which the disease spreads. The unknown part concerning the contact mechanism can be modelled using a stochastic approach. For that purpose, we revisit SIR models by introducing first a microscopic stochastic version of the contacts between individuals of different populations (namely Susceptible, Infective and Recovering), then by adding a random perturbation in the vicinity of the endemic fixed point of the SIR model and eventually by introducing the definition of various types of random social networks. We propose as example of application to contagious diseases the HIV, and we show that a micro-simulation of individual based modelling (IBM) type can reproduce the current stable incidence of the HIV epidemic in a population of HIV-positive men having sex with men (MSM). PMID:23525763

  3. An agent-based approach for modeling dynamics of contagious disease spread

    PubMed Central

    Perez, Liliana; Dragicevic, Suzana

    2009-01-01

    Background The propagation of communicable diseases through a population is an inherent spatial and temporal process of great importance for modern society. For this reason a spatially explicit epidemiologic model of infectious disease is proposed for a greater understanding of the disease's spatial diffusion through a network of human contacts. Objective The objective of this study is to develop an agent-based modelling approach the integrates geographic information systems (GIS) to simulate the spread of a communicable disease in an urban environment, as a result of individuals' interactions in a geospatial context. Methods The methodology for simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of communicable disease propagation is presented and the model is implemented using measles outbreak in an urban environment as a case study. Individuals in a closed population are explicitly represented by agents associated to places where they interact with other agents. They are endowed with mobility, through a transportation network allowing them to move between places within the urban environment, in order to represent the spatial heterogeneity and the complexity involved in infectious diseases diffusion. The model is implemented on georeferenced land use dataset from Metro Vancouver and makes use of census data sets from Statistics Canada for the municipality of Burnaby, BC, Canada study site. Results The results provide insights into the application of the model to calculate ratios of susceptible/infected in specific time frames and urban environments, due to its ability to depict the disease progression based on individuals' interactions. It is demonstrated that the dynamic spatial interactions within the population lead to high numbers of exposed individuals who perform stationary activities in areas after they have finished commuting. As a result, the sick individuals are concentrated in geographical locations like schools and universities. Conclusion The GIS-agent based model

  4. The role of contagious disease in udder health

    PubMed Central

    Barkema, H. W.; Green, M. J.; Bradley, A. J.; Zadoks, R. N.

    2009-01-01

    Contagious diseases are a threat to animal health and productivity, both nationally and at the farm level. This makes implementation of biosecurity measures to prevent their introduction and spread within countries and farms a necessity. Mastitis is the most common and costly contagious disease affecting dairy farms in the western world. The major mastitis pathogens are endemic in most countries, and biosecurity measures to prevent introduction and transmission must therefore be implemented at farm level. The 40-yr-old mastitis control plan remains a solid foundation to prevent the spread of contagious intramammary infections. Contagious diseases that do not affect the mammary gland directly may have an indirect effect on mastitis. This is true for list A diseases such as foot and mouth disease, for which biosecurity measures may need to be taken at national level, and for other infections with nonmastitis pathogens such as bovine viral diarrhea virus and Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis. Maintaining a closed herd decreases the risk of introduction of pathogens that affect udder health directly or indirectly. If animals are purchased, their udder health history should be evaluated and they should be examined and tested for contagious diseases. Transmission of infections by and to humans and nonbovine animals may occur. Contact with visitors and nonbovine animals should therefore be minimized. Because of globalization and heightened consumer awareness, the importance of biosecurity now supersedes individual farms, and increased pressure to control transmission of contagious diseases can be expected at industry or government levels in western countries and elsewhere. PMID:19762787

  5. Educating Children and Youth To Prevent Contagious Disease. ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grosse, Susan J.

    Twenty-first century contagious diseases require more than basic health lessons to prevent transmission. This Digest examines ways to prevent disease transmission in school settings. Section 1 discusses key concepts in contagion education: all people are potentially contagious; germs that cause diseases are present on many parts of the body; hand…

  6. Discrete dynamics of contagious social diseases: Example of obesity.

    PubMed

    Demongeot, J; Hansen, O; Taramasco, C

    2016-01-01

    Modeling contagious diseases needs to incorporate information about social networks through which the disease spreads as well as data about demographic and genetic changes in the susceptible population. In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework (conceptualization and formalization) which seeks to model obesity as a process of transformation of one's own body determined by individual (physical and psychological), inter-individual (relational, i.e., relative to the relationship between the individual and others) and socio-cultural (environmental, i.e., relative to the relationship between the individual and his milieu) factors. Individual and inter-individual factors are tied to each other in a socio-cultural context whose impact is notably related to the visibility of anybody being exposed on the public stage in a non-contingent way. The question we are dealing with in this article is whether such kind of social diseases, i.e., depending upon socio-environmental exposure, can be considered as "contagious". In other words, can obesity be propagated from individual to individual or from environmental sources throughout an entire population? PMID:26375495

  7. Should Persons with Contagious Diseases Be Barred from School?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roe, Richard L.

    1987-01-01

    Reviews recent court decisions regarding whether individuals with contagious diseases may be barred from public schools. Devotes specific attention to the issue of whether certain communicable diseases such as tuberculosis and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) can be classified as handicaps and thereby qualify a person for protection…

  8. What To Do When Contagious Disease Strikes Your School.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Bar Association, Chicago, IL.

    This publication presents 10 documents collected to accompany a seminar entitled "What To Do When Contagious Disease Strikes Your School," presented at the 31st annual convention of the National Organization on Legal Problems of Education in 1985. The materials include (1) an agenda of the seminar listing the speakers, their topics, and the time…

  9. MHC gene copy number variation in Tasmanian devils: implications for the spread of a contagious cancer

    PubMed Central

    Siddle, Hannah V.; Marzec, Jolanta; Cheng, Yuanyuan; Jones, Menna; Belov, Katherine

    2010-01-01

    Tasmanian devils face extinction owing to the emergence of a contagious cancer. Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) is a clonal cancer spread owing to a lack of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) barriers in Tasmanian devil populations. We present a comprehensive screen of MHC diversity in devils and identify 25 MHC types and 53 novel sequences, but conclude that overall levels of MHC diversity at the sequence level are low. The majority of MHC Class I variation can be explained by allelic copy number variation with two to seven sequence variants identified per individual. MHC sequences are divided into two distinct groups based on sequence similarity. DFTD cells and most devils have sequences from both groups. Twenty per cent of individuals have a restricted MHC repertoire and contain only group I or only group II sequences. Counterintuitively, we postulate that the immune system of individuals with a restricted MHC repertoire may recognize foreign MHC antigens on the surface of the DFTD cell. The implication of these results for management of DFTD and this endangered species are discussed. PMID:20219742

  10. Transportation in commerical aircraft of passengers having contagious diseases.

    PubMed

    Perin, M

    1976-10-01

    Most airlines refuse to board passengers known or believed to have contagious diseases. Such rigor can scarcely be justified by reference to either laws or regulations. It introduces the risk of arbitrary, mistaken, or prejudiced conduct in areas in which international organizations recommend the greatest liberalization, and it can cause serious harm to certain patients. Finally, it does not seem logical, for airlines learn about only a small fraction of the contagious persons who travel, and public health is much more greatly endangered by unknown contagious persons. Normal hygienic conditions aboard planes suppress the risks of contagion concerning most diseases transmitted by insects or through contact with the skin, with mucuous membranes, with the faeces, or with urine. Airlines should continue to refuse to transport only those passengers having diseases which are characterized by vomiting or serious diarrhoea or which are transmitted through the air if it is impossible by simple means to avoid the risk of contaminating other travellers and any members of the flight crew who might be receptive. PMID:985288

  11. Investigations into the role of carrier animals in the spread of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia.

    PubMed

    Windsor, R S; Masiga, W N

    1977-09-01

    An attempt was made to transmit contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) from 22 animals recovered from artificial infection to healthy animals. Despite close contact and the imposition of a number of stresses no disease was transmitted. An unsuccessful attempt was made to reactivate old CBPP lesions by corticosteroid treatment, and by splenectomy. Four animals recovered from artificial infection did not become reinfected when put in contact with acute disease. Seven animals were reinoculated with Mycoplasmamycoides sub-species mycoides by endobronchial intubation. No clinical disease resulted. It is concluded that sequestra do not break down easily and that it is difficult to reinfect recovered animals. It is suggested that in field outbreaks of obscure origin, investigation should be thorough before it is concluded that an animal with an old sequestrum was responsible. PMID:337429

  12. Legal briefing: coerced treatment and involuntary confinement for contagious disease.

    PubMed

    Pope, Thaddeus Mason; Bughman, Heather Michelle

    2015-01-01

    This issue's "Legal Briefing" column covers recent legal developments involving coerced treatment and involuntary confinement for contagious disease. Recent high profile court cases involving measles, tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus, and especially Ebola, have thrust this topic back into the bioethics and public spotlights. This has reignited debates over how best to balance individual liberty and public health. For example, the Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues has officially requested public comments, held open hearings, and published a 90-page report on "ethical considerations and implications" raised by "U.S. public policies that restrict association or movement (such as quarantine)." Broadly related articles have been published in previous issues of The Journal of Clinical Ethics. We categorize recent legal developments on coerced treatment and involuntary confinement into the following six categories: 1. Most Public Health Confinement Is Voluntary 2. Legal Requirements for Involuntary Confinement 3. New State Laws Authorizing Involuntary Confinement 4. Quarantine Must Be as Least Restrictive as Necessary 5. Isolation Is Justified Only as a Last Resort 6. Coerced Treatment after Persistent Noncompliance. PMID:25794297

  13. A Framework for Categorization of the Economic Impacts of Outbreaks of Highly Contagious Livestock Diseases.

    PubMed

    Saatkamp, H W; Mourits, M C M; Howe, K S

    2016-08-01

    A framework for categorization of economic impacts of outbreaks of highly contagious livestock diseases (HCLD) is presented. This framework interprets veterinary measures to control HCLD outbreaks with reference to economic definitions of costs and benefits, and the implications for value losses both for different stakeholders affected and society as a whole. Four cost categories are identified, that is virus control-related direct costs (DC), spread prevention and zoning-related direct consequential costs (DCC), market and price disruption-related costs during (indirect consequential costs, ICC) and after the outbreak (aftermath costs, AC). The framework is used to review existing literature on cost estimation for different stakeholders. This review shows considerable differences between studies, making comparison of results difficult and susceptible to misunderstanding. It is concluded that the framework provides a logical basis for all future analyses of the economic impacts of HCLD. PMID:25382248

  14. Contagious Equine Metritis: A Review

    PubMed Central

    Eaglesome, M. D.; Garcia, M. M.

    1979-01-01

    Contagious equine metritis is a highly contagious genital infection of mares, spread venereally, and was first described in 1977. Although most contagious equine metritis outbreaks involved Thoroughbreds, infection in other breeds has also occurred. The disease has been reported in Europe, Australia and the United States. In Canada, contagious equine metritis has been designated a reportable disease under the Animal Disease and Protection Act. Contagious equine metritis is characterized by an endometritis and infertility and infected mares show no signs of systemic infection. Clinical signs have not been observed in stallions. An asymptomatic carrier state exists in both mares and stallions. Infected mares respond clinically to the topical and parenteral administration of antibacterial drugs. However, a proportion of mares remain carriers of the contagious equine metritis organism. Treatment of stallions is successful. Haemophilus equigenitalis has been proposed as the species name of the Gram-negative, microaerophilic coccobacillus. Sample collection and laboratory methods for the diagnosis of contagious equine metritis are described. PMID:389400

  15. Supreme Court Holds That Contagious Diseases Are Handicaps.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flygare, Thomas J.

    1987-01-01

    Describes a complex case involving termination of a third-grade teacher with recurrent tuberculosis. The United States Supreme Court upheld a circuit court's ruling that the teacher's condition satisfied section 504 of the 1973 Rehabilitation Act protecting handicapped persons against discrimination. Since contagiousness was not addressed, the…

  16. 9 CFR 71.14 - Slaughter of poultry or other animals to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and compensation. 71.14 Section 71.14 Animals... or other animals to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and compensation. When, in order to prevent the spread of any contagious, infectious, or communicable disease, it becomes...

  17. 9 CFR 71.14 - Slaughter of poultry or other animals to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and compensation. 71.14 Section 71.14 Animals... or other animals to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and compensation. When, in order to prevent the spread of any contagious, infectious, or communicable disease, it becomes...

  18. 9 CFR 71.14 - Slaughter of poultry or other animals to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and compensation. 71.14 Section 71.14 Animals... or other animals to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and compensation. When, in order to prevent the spread of any contagious, infectious, or communicable disease, it becomes...

  19. 9 CFR 71.14 - Slaughter of poultry or other animals to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and compensation. 71.14 Section 71.14 Animals... or other animals to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and compensation. When, in order to prevent the spread of any contagious, infectious, or communicable disease, it becomes...

  20. 9 CFR 71.14 - Slaughter of poultry or other animals to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... or other animals to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and compensation. When, in order to prevent the spread of any contagious, infectious, or communicable disease, it becomes necessary... to prevent spread of disease; ascertainment of value and compensation. 71.14 Section 71.14...

  1. Respiratory-borne Disease Outbreaks in Populations: Contact Networks and the Spread of Disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pourbohloul, Babak; Meyers, Lauren A.; Newman, Mark E. J.; Skowronski, Danuta M.

    2005-03-01

    A large class of infectious diseases spread through direct person-to-person contact. Traditional ``compartmental'' modeling in epidemiology assumes that in population groups every individual has an equal chance of spreading the disease to every other. The patterns of these contacts, however, tend to be highly heterogeneous. Explicit models of the patterns of contact among individuals in a community, contact network models, underlie a powerful approach to predicting and controlling the spread of such infectious disease and provide detailed and valuable insight into the fate and control of an outbreak. We use contact network epidemiology to predict the impact of various control policies for both a mildly contagious disease such as SARS and a more highly contagious disease such as smallpox. We demonstrate how integrating these tools into public health decision-making should facilitate more rational strategies for managing newly emerging diseases, bioterrorism and pandemic influenza in situations where empirical data are not yet available to guide decision making.

  2. Contagious Diseases in Competitive Sport: What Are the Risks?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dorman, John M.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses fungal, bacterial, and viral infections that may strike athletes during competition, highlighting possible risks of hepatitis, herpes, and HIV. Athletes generally are more at risk off the playing field than while competing. Requiring immunizations against measles and hepatitis B prior to college admission would eliminate two diseases.…

  3. Contagious rhythm: infectious diseases of 20th century musicians.

    PubMed

    Sartin, Jeffrey S

    2010-07-01

    Infectious diseases have led to illness and death for many famous musicians, from the classical period to the rock 'n' roll era. By the 20th century, as public health improved and orchestral composers began living more settled lives, infections among American and European musicians became less prominent. By mid-century, however, seminal jazz musicians famously pursued lifestyles characterized by drug and alcohol abuse. Among the consequences of this risky lifestyle were tuberculosis, syphilis, and chronic viral hepatitis. More contemporary rock musicians have experienced an epidemic of hepatitis C infection and HIV/AIDS related to intravenous drug use and promiscuity. Musical innovation is thus often accompanied by diseases of neglect and overindulgence, particularly infectious illnesses, although risky behavior and associated infectious illnesses tend to decrease as the style matures. PMID:20660936

  4. Contagious Rhythm: Infectious Diseases of 20th Century Musicians

    PubMed Central

    Sartin, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Infectious diseases have led to illness and death for many famous musicians, from the classical period to the rock ’n’ roll era. By the 20th century, as public health improved and orchestral composers began living more settled lives, infections among American and European musicians became less prominent. By mid-century, however, seminal jazz musicians famously pursued lifestyles characterized by drug and alcohol abuse. Among the consequences of this risky lifestyle were tuberculosis, syphilis, and chronic viral hepatitis. More contemporary rock musicians have experienced an epidemic of hepatitis C infection and HIV/AIDS related to intravenous drug use and promiscuity. Musical innovation is thus often accompanied by diseases of neglect and overindulgence, particularly infectious illnesses, although risky behavior and associated infectious illnesses tend to decrease as the style matures. PMID:20660936

  5. The revival of Lucretian atomism and contagious diseases during the renaissance.

    PubMed

    Beretta, Marco

    2003-01-01

    This article examines the influence of Lucretius' De rerum natura on the theory of contagious diseases which Girolamo Fracastoro developed during the second decade of the 16th century. It is apparent that the use of the concept of semina morbi was neither an anticipation of modern germ theory, nor a mere adaptation of the terminology of classical atomism. In fact, the combination of the humanist interest in the poem of Lucretius with a renewed attention towards direct observation resulted in the publication in of Fracastoro's De morbo gallico (1530), containing an innovative and effective interpretation of the notion of contagion. PMID:15309812

  6. A generic model of contagious disease and its application to human-to-human transmission of avian influenza.

    SciTech Connect

    Hirsch, Gary B.

    2007-03-01

    Modeling contagious diseases has taken on greater importance over the past several years as diseases such as SARS and avian influenza have raised concern about worldwide pandemics. Most models developed to consider projected outbreaks have been specific to a single disease. This paper describes a generic System Dynamics contagious disease model and its application to human-to-human transmission of a mutant version of avian influenza. The model offers the option of calculating rates of new infections over time based either on a fixed ''reproductive number'' that is traditional in contagious disease models or on contact rates for different sub-populations and likelihood of transmission per contact. The paper reports on results with various types of interventions. These results suggest the potential importance of contact tracing, limited quarantine, and targeted vaccination strategies as methods for controlling outbreaks, especially when vaccine supplies may initially be limited and the efficacy of anti-viral drugs uncertain.

  7. The Use of Illegal Drugs and Infectious Contagious Diseases: Knowledge and Intervention among Dockworkers.

    PubMed

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Bonow, Clarice Alves; da Silva, Mara Regina Santos; de Farias, Francisca Lucélia Ribeiro; de Almeida, Marlise Capa Verde

    2016-01-01

    This study's objective was to analyze the use of illegal drugs by dockworkers and provide risk communication regarding the use of illegal drugs and test for infectious contagious diseases among dockworkers. This cross-sectional study including an intervention addressed to 232 dockworkers, who were individually interviewed, as well as communication of risk with testing for infectious contagious diseases for 93 dockworkers from a city in the interior of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Poisson regression analysis was used. Twenty-nine workers reported the use of illegal drugs. Poisson regression indicated that being a wharfage worker, smoker, having a high income, and heavier workload increases the prevalence of the use of illegal drugs. During risk communication, two workers were diagnosed with hepatitis B (2.2%), three (3.2%) with hepatitis C, two (2.2%) with syphilis. None of the workers, though, had HIV. This study provides evidence that can motivate further research on the topic and also lead to treatment of individuals to improve work safety, productivity, and the health of workers. PMID:26771625

  8. The Use of Illegal Drugs and Infectious Contagious Diseases: Knowledge and Intervention among Dockworkers

    PubMed Central

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Bonow, Clarice Alves; da Silva, Mara Regina Santos; de Farias, Francisca Lucélia Ribeiro; de Almeida, Marlise Capa Verde

    2016-01-01

    This study’s objective was to analyze the use of illegal drugs by dockworkers and provide risk communication regarding the use of illegal drugs and test for infectious contagious diseases among dockworkers. This cross-sectional study including an intervention addressed to 232 dockworkers, who were individually interviewed, as well as communication of risk with testing for infectious contagious diseases for 93 dockworkers from a city in the interior of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Poisson regression analysis was used. Twenty-nine workers reported the use of illegal drugs. Poisson regression indicated that being a wharfage worker, smoker, having a high income, and heavier workload increases the prevalence of the use of illegal drugs. During risk communication, two workers were diagnosed with hepatitis B (2.2%), three (3.2%) with hepatitis C, two (2.2%) with syphilis. None of the workers, though, had HIV. This study provides evidence that can motivate further research on the topic and also lead to treatment of individuals to improve work safety, productivity, and the health of workers. PMID:26771625

  9. Multi Criteria Decision Making to evaluate control strategies of contagious animal diseases.

    PubMed

    Mourits, M C M; van Asseldonk, M A P M; Huirne, R B M

    2010-09-01

    The decision on which strategy to use in the control of contagious animal diseases involves complex trade-offs between multiple objectives. This paper describes a Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) application to illustrate its potential support to policy makers in choosing the control strategy that best meets all of the conflicting interests. The presented application focused on the evaluation of alternative strategies to control Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemics within the European Union (EU) according to the preferences of the European Chief Veterinary Officers (CVO). The performed analysis was centred on the three high-level objectives of epidemiology, economics and social ethics. The appraised control alternatives consisted of the EU compulsory control strategy, a pre-emptive slaughter strategy, a protective vaccination strategy and a suppressive vaccination strategy. Using averaged preference weights of the elicited CVOs, the preference ranking of the control alternatives was determined for six EU regions. The obtained results emphasized the need for EU region-specific control. Individual CVOs differed in their views on the relative importance of the various (sub)criteria by which the performance of the alternatives were judged. Nevertheless, the individual rankings of the control alternatives within a region appeared surprisingly similar. Based on the results of the described application it was concluded that the structuring feature of the MCDM technique provides a suitable tool in assisting the complex decision making process of controlling contagious animal diseases. PMID:20633939

  10. Nosocomial Spread of Viral Disease

    PubMed Central

    Aitken, Celia; Jeffries, Donald J.

    2001-01-01

    Viruses are important causes of nosocomial infection, but the fact that hospital outbreaks often result from introduction(s) from community-based epidemics, together with the need to initiate specific laboratory testing, means that there are usually insufficient data to allow the monitoring of trends in incidences. The most important defenses against nosocomial transmission of viruses are detailed and continuing education of staff and strict adherence to infection control policies. Protocols must be available to assist in the management of patients with suspected or confirmed viral infection in the health care setting. In this review, we present details on general measures to prevent the spread of viral infection in hospitals and other health care environments. These include principles of accommodation of infected patients and approaches to good hygiene and patient management. They provide detail on individual viral diseases accompanied in each case with specific information on control of the infection and, where appropriate, details of preventive and therapeutic measures. The important areas of nosocomial infection due to blood-borne viruses have been extensively reviewed previously and are summarized here briefly, with citation of selected review articles. Human prion diseases, which present management problems very different from those of viral infection, are not included. PMID:11432812

  11. Evolution of a contagious cancer: epigenetic variation in Devil Facial Tumour Disease.

    PubMed

    Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Peck, Sarah; Harmsen, Collette; Taylor, Robyn; Pyecroft, Stephen; Madsen, Thomas; Papenfuss, Anthony T; Belov, Katherine

    2013-01-01

    The emergence of Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), a highly contagious cancer, is driving Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) to extinction. The cancer is a genetically and chromosomally stable clonal cell line which is transmitted by biting during social interactions. In the present study, we explore the Devil Facial Tumour (DFT) epigenome and the genes involved in DNA methylation homeostasis. We show that tumour cells have similar levels of methylation to peripheral nerves, the tissue from which DFTD originated. We did not observe any strain or region-specific epimutations. However, we revealed a significant increase in hypomethylation in DFT samples over time (p < 0.0001). We propose that loss of methylation is not because of a maintenance deficiency, as an upregulation of DNA methyltransferase 1 gene was observed in tumours compared with nerves (p < 0.005). Instead, we believe that loss of methylation is owing to active demethylation, supported by the temporal increase in MBD2 and MBD4 (p < 0.001). The implications of these changes on disease phenotypes need to be explored. Our work shows that DFTD should not be treated as a static entity, but rather as an evolving parasite with epigenetic plasticity. Understanding the role of epimutations in the evolution of this parasitic cancer will provide unique insights into the role of epigenetic plasticity in cancer evolution and progression in traditional cancers that arise and die with their hosts. PMID:23135679

  12. Evolution of a contagious cancer: epigenetic variation in Devil Facial Tumour Disease

    PubMed Central

    Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Peck, Sarah; Harmsen, Collette; Taylor, Robyn; Pyecroft, Stephen; Madsen, Thomas; Papenfuss, Anthony T.; Belov, Katherine

    2013-01-01

    The emergence of Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), a highly contagious cancer, is driving Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) to extinction. The cancer is a genetically and chromosomally stable clonal cell line which is transmitted by biting during social interactions. In the present study, we explore the Devil Facial Tumour (DFT) epigenome and the genes involved in DNA methylation homeostasis. We show that tumour cells have similar levels of methylation to peripheral nerves, the tissue from which DFTD originated. We did not observe any strain or region-specific epimutations. However, we revealed a significant increase in hypomethylation in DFT samples over time (p < 0.0001). We propose that loss of methylation is not because of a maintenance deficiency, as an upregulation of DNA methyltransferase 1 gene was observed in tumours compared with nerves (p < 0.005). Instead, we believe that loss of methylation is owing to active demethylation, supported by the temporal increase in MBD2 and MBD4 (p < 0.001). The implications of these changes on disease phenotypes need to be explored. Our work shows that DFTD should not be treated as a static entity, but rather as an evolving parasite with epigenetic plasticity. Understanding the role of epimutations in the evolution of this parasitic cancer will provide unique insights into the role of epigenetic plasticity in cancer evolution and progression in traditional cancers that arise and die with their hosts. PMID:23135679

  13. Cross-border collaboration in the field of highly contagious livestock diseases: a general framework for policy support.

    PubMed

    Hop, G E; Mourits, M C M; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W

    2014-08-01

    This paper analyses the potential gains and the main challenges for increased cross-border collaboration in the control of highly contagious livestock diseases in regions with cross-border reliance on production and consumption of livestock commodities. The aim of this intensification of cross-border collaboration is to retain the economic advantages of cross-border trade in livestock and livestock commodities while maintaining a low risk of highly contagious livestock diseases. From these two foci, possibilities for future policy making with respect to highly contagious livestock diseases are discussed: peacetime cross-border cooperation to improve the cost-effectiveness of routine veterinary measures and crisis time cross-border harmonization of current disease control strategies. A general disease management framework was used to describe the way in which these two fields are related to and affect the epidemiological system and, consequently, how they impact the stakeholders. In addition to this framework, the importance of a good understanding of influencing factors, that is, the production structure of livestock, was stressed because these factors are important determinants of the frequency and magnitude of highly contagious livestock diseases and their economic impact. The use of the suggested integrated approach was illustrated for the extended cross-border region of the Netherlands and Germany, that is, North Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony. For this region, current difficulties in cross-border trade in livestock and livestock commodities and possibilities for future cross-border collaboration were examined. The concepts and ideas presented in this paper should foster future development of cross-border collaboration in animal health control. PMID:23066698

  14. [Importation of rare but life-threatening and highly contagious diseases. Current situation and outlook].

    PubMed

    Burchard, G D

    2015-10-01

    Internists should expect to be the first contact for patients with rare, but highly contagious, life-threatening illnesses. Although certainly not encountered often, it is associated with significant consequences. Thus, physicians should be familiar with viral hemorrhagic fevers: filoviruses cause Ebola and Marburg fever, arenaviruses cause Lassa fever and South American hemorrhagic fevers, and the bunyaviruses cause among others Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. Furthermore, physicians should be familiar with highly contagious respiratory infections, such as hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, pneumonic plague, and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). PMID:26391557

  15. [Epidemiology of Ebola virus disease and of other highly contagious, life-threatening diseases with low incidence in Germany].

    PubMed

    Ehlkes, L; Kreuels, B; Schwarz, N G; May, Jürgen

    2015-07-01

    Apart from sporadic exported cases, the occurrence of Ebola, Marburg and Lassa virus diseases is limited to the African continent. Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever occurs in Southeastern Europe but, so far, not in Germany. Other hemorrhagic fever disease-viruses occur in distinct regions in South America. Pulmonary plague is the bacterial infectious disease with the most contagious and lethal course and it is endemic to Madagascar and East Africa, but also occurs in other countries (e.g. India, USA). Monkey pox epidemics have occurred in remote areas of the Congo Basin. Such outbreaks could potentially become more common with the discontinuation of the cross-protective smallpox vaccination. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that emerged in 2002/2003 is another pathogen with significant epidemic potential. Typical for these diseases is a natural circulation between reservoir animals in remote areas. Sporadic transmission to humans can occur through contact with an infected animal. Subsequent human-to-human transmission can lead to epidemics, such as the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa. PMID:25997608

  16. A Drug-Centric View of Drug Development: How Drugs Spread from Disease to Disease

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez-Esteban, Raul

    2016-01-01

    Drugs are often seen as ancillary to the purpose of fighting diseases. Here an alternative view is proposed in which they occupy a spearheading role. In this view, drugs are technologies with an inherent therapeutic potential. Once created, they can spread from disease to disease independently of the drug creator’s original intentions. Through the analysis of extensive literature and clinical trial records, it can be observed that successful drugs follow a life cycle in which they are studied at an increasing rate, and for the treatment of an increasing number of diseases, leading to clinical advancement. Such initial growth, following a power law on average, has a degree of momentum, but eventually decelerates, leading to stagnation and decay. A network model can describe the propagation of drugs from disease to disease in which diseases communicate with each other by receiving and sending drugs. Within this model, some diseases appear more prone to influence other diseases than be influenced, and vice versa. Diseases can also be organized into a drug-centric disease taxonomy based on the drugs that each adopts. This taxonomy reflects not only biological similarities across diseases, but also the level of differentiation of existing therapies. In sum, this study shows that drugs can become contagious technologies playing a driving role in the fight against disease. By better understanding such dynamics, pharmaceutical developers may be able to manage drug projects more effectively. PMID:27124390

  17. Contagious equine metritis eradicated from Japan.

    PubMed

    Anzai, Toru; Kamada, Masanobu; Niwa, Hidekazu; Eguchi, Masashi; Nishi, Hideki

    2012-04-01

    Contagious equine metritis (CEM), a contagious venereal disease of horses, invaded Japan in 1980 and spread in the Thoroughbred population of the Hidaka-Iburi district of Hokkaido. To eradicate CEM, we ran a program aimed at detecting Taylorella equigenitalis, the causal agent, in carrier horses by using the PCR test, followed by culling or treatment. In 2001, the first year of the program, 12,356 Thoroughbred racing stallions and mares were tested and 11 carriers were found. Four, two, one, and one carrier mares were detected in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively, by application of the program at the same scale as in 2001. No PCR-positive horses were found from 2006 to 2010. These results strongly suggest that CEM was eradicated from Japan by 2010. PMID:22123306

  18. Benefits of lethal pandemics: direct impact of contagious diseases on public administration in Hungary (1867-1914).

    PubMed

    Palvolgyi, Balazs

    2013-01-01

    The reconciliation of 1867 between Austria and Hungary brought great changes to Hungarian public administration: the way towards the building up of a modern public administration had been opened. Although there was a functioning public health system and a related legislation from the late 18th century, major issues - such as balanced geographical distribution of medical personnel, fair access to medical services even in the poorer regions of the country, and the effective protection against some contagious diseases - were not resolved for decades. During the reform work of public administration since the 1870s, the lawmakers touched repeatedly the framework and functioning of the public health as well. Although the general conditions of the domain depended traditionally on the municipalities and counties due to the national importance of the matter, the government made efforts to make the functioning of the public health more efficient through centralisation. The contagious diseases continuously endangered the population, revealing the weak points in the existing public health system, thereby giving a momentum to the reforms and helping the government in its organization of prevention and clearly contributing to the legislation work. PMID:24304105

  19. Temporal network structures controlling disease spreading.

    PubMed

    Holme, Petter

    2016-08-01

    We investigate disease spreading on eight empirical data sets of human contacts (mostly proximity networks recording who is close to whom, at what time). We compare three levels of representations of these data sets: temporal networks, static networks, and a fully connected topology. We notice that the difference between the static and fully connected networks-with respect to time to extinction and average outbreak size-is smaller than between the temporal and static topologies. This suggests that, for these data sets, temporal structures influence disease spreading more than static-network structures. To explain the details in the differences between the representations, we use 32 network measures. This study concurs that long-time temporal structures, like the turnover of nodes and links, are the most important for the spreading dynamics. PMID:27627315

  20. Temporal network structures controlling disease spreading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holme, Petter

    2016-08-01

    We investigate disease spreading on eight empirical data sets of human contacts (mostly proximity networks recording who is close to whom, at what time). We compare three levels of representations of these data sets: temporal networks, static networks, and a fully connected topology. We notice that the difference between the static and fully connected networks—with respect to time to extinction and average outbreak size—is smaller than between the temporal and static topologies. This suggests that, for these data sets, temporal structures influence disease spreading more than static-network structures. To explain the details in the differences between the representations, we use 32 network measures. This study concurs that long-time temporal structures, like the turnover of nodes and links, are the most important for the spreading dynamics.

  1. [Disease in the cloisters: requests to leave Convento da Ajuda, Rio de Janeiro, for the treatment of contagious diseases, c.1750-1780].

    PubMed

    Martins, William de Souza

    2016-01-01

    This article discusses the requests submitted by nuns from Convento da Ajuda (Ajuda Convent) to leave their life of enclosure to receive treatment for contagious diseases. Disease was one of the few cases in which nuns were granted permission to leave. The female orders were strictly cloistered in order to preserve their purity as virgins consecrated to Christ. Extant documents detail the causes of the diseases, the ways they were transmitted, and the treatments used to fight them. These processes shed light on the procedures adopted outside the cloisters so that the nuns did not jeopardize their reclusion and honor when they went to distant places in search of treatment. PMID:27438730

  2. Reversible epigenetic down-regulation of MHC molecules by devil facial tumour disease illustrates immune escape by a contagious cancer.

    PubMed

    Siddle, Hannah V; Kreiss, Alexandre; Tovar, Cesar; Yuen, Chun Kit; Cheng, Yuanyuan; Belov, Katherine; Swift, Kate; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Hamede, Rodrigo; Jones, Menna E; Skjødt, Karsten; Woods, Gregory M; Kaufman, Jim

    2013-03-26

    Contagious cancers that pass between individuals as an infectious cell line are highly unusual pathogens. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such contagious cancer that emerged 16 y ago and is driving the Tasmanian devil to extinction. As both a pathogen and an allograft, DFTD cells should be rejected by the host-immune response, yet DFTD causes 100% mortality among infected devils with no apparent rejection of tumor cells. Why DFTD cells are not rejected has been a question of considerable confusion. Here, we show that DFTD cells do not express cell surface MHC molecules in vitro or in vivo, due to down-regulation of genes essential to the antigen-processing pathway, such as β2-microglobulin and transporters associated with antigen processing. Loss of gene expression is not due to structural mutations, but to regulatory changes including epigenetic deacetylation of histones. Consequently, MHC class I molecules can be restored to the surface of DFTD cells in vitro by using recombinant devil IFN-γ, which is associated with up-regulation of the MHC class II transactivator, a key transcription factor with deacetylase activity. Further, expression of MHC class I molecules by DFTD cells can occur in vivo during lymphocyte infiltration. These results explain why T cells do not target DFTD cells. We propose that MHC-positive or epigenetically modified DFTD cells may provide a vaccine to DFTD. In addition, we suggest that down-regulation of MHC molecules using regulatory mechanisms allows evolvability of transmissible cancers and could affect the evolutionary trajectory of DFTD. PMID:23479617

  3. Reversible epigenetic down-regulation of MHC molecules by devil facial tumour disease illustrates immune escape by a contagious cancer

    PubMed Central

    Siddle, Hannah V.; Kreiss, Alexandre; Tovar, Cesar; Yuen, Chun Kit; Cheng, Yuanyuan; Belov, Katherine; Swift, Kate; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Hamede, Rodrigo; Jones, Menna E.; Skjødt, Karsten; Woods, Gregory M.; Kaufman, Jim

    2013-01-01

    Contagious cancers that pass between individuals as an infectious cell line are highly unusual pathogens. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such contagious cancer that emerged 16 y ago and is driving the Tasmanian devil to extinction. As both a pathogen and an allograft, DFTD cells should be rejected by the host–immune response, yet DFTD causes 100% mortality among infected devils with no apparent rejection of tumor cells. Why DFTD cells are not rejected has been a question of considerable confusion. Here, we show that DFTD cells do not express cell surface MHC molecules in vitro or in vivo, due to down-regulation of genes essential to the antigen-processing pathway, such as β2-microglobulin and transporters associated with antigen processing. Loss of gene expression is not due to structural mutations, but to regulatory changes including epigenetic deacetylation of histones. Consequently, MHC class I molecules can be restored to the surface of DFTD cells in vitro by using recombinant devil IFN-γ, which is associated with up-regulation of the MHC class II transactivator, a key transcription factor with deacetylase activity. Further, expression of MHC class I molecules by DFTD cells can occur in vivo during lymphocyte infiltration. These results explain why T cells do not target DFTD cells. We propose that MHC-positive or epigenetically modified DFTD cells may provide a vaccine to DFTD. In addition, we suggest that down-regulation of MHC molecules using regulatory mechanisms allows evolvability of transmissible cancers and could affect the evolutionary trajectory of DFTD. PMID:23479617

  4. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  5. Contagious cancer.

    PubMed

    Welsh, James S

    2011-01-01

    Although cancer can on occasion be caused by infectious agents such as specific bacteria, parasites, and viruses, it is not generally considered a transmissible disease. In rare circumstances, however, direct communication from one host to another has been documented. The Tasmanian devil is now threatened with extinction in the wild because of a fatal transmissible cancer, devil facial tumor disease (DFTD). Another example is canine transmissible venereal tumor (CTVT or Sticker's sarcoma) in dogs. There is a vast difference in prognosis between these two conditions. DFTD is often fatal within 6 months, whereas most cases of CTVT are eventually rejected by the host dog, who then is conferred lifelong immunity. In man, only scattered case reports exist about such communicable cancers, most often in the setting of organ or hematopoietic stem cell transplants and cancers arising during pregnancy that are transmitted to the fetus. In about one third of cases, transplant recipients develop cancers from donor organs from individuals who were found to harbor malignancies after the transplantation. The fact that two thirds of the time cancer does not develop, along with the fact that cancer very rarely is transmitted from person to person, supports the notion that natural immunity prevents such cancers from taking hold in man. These observations might hold invaluable clues to the immunobiology and possible immunotherapy of cancer. PMID:21212437

  6. Atmospheric Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease During The Early Phase of The Uk Epidemic 2001

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sørensen, J. H.; Mikkelsen, T.; Astrup, P.; Alexandersen, S.; Donaldson, A. I.

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease in cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of species which are susceptible, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of virus that can initiate infection in susceptible hosts. One of the routes for the spread of the disease is the atmospheric dispersion of virus exhaled by infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have occurred over a distance of several hundred kilometres. For the FMD epidemic in UK in 2001, atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to describe the atmospheric dispersion of virus for the larger outbreaks of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is first of all to identify risk zones, which is helpful to the emergency management. The paper addresses the modelling techniques and presents results related with the epidemic in UK in 2001.

  7. [Relations between official and private veterinary services in epidemiology and the control of contagious diseases].

    PubMed

    Moura, J A; Bedoya, M; Agudelo, M P

    2004-04-01

    Growing budget restrictions in many countries have meant that official Veterinary Services cannot assume responsibility for any new activities. The natural reaction is to turn to private veterinary services to provide the support needed to strengthen the control and surveillance of priority diseases and thereby support the development of the livestock sector and the establishment of safe international trade. In this context, official Veterinary Services must work together with private veterinarians, delegating various technical animal health activities, so that they may focus their efforts on those tasks that cannot be delegated: standardisation, control, auditing, general system co-ordination, epidemiological surveillance, etc., as well as organising veterinary policy in order to make best use of budget resources. For these relations to be efficient, a dynamic, two-way epidemiological information mechanism must be created, whereby private veterinarians periodically keep governments informed, on the basis of an agreed methodology. Moreover, the official Veterinary Services must systematically transmit information on List A and B diseases of the OIE (World organisation for animal health), and perform detailed analyses of epidemiologically significant events. The article proposes the establishment of relations between public and private veterinary services as a way in which to provide the livestock sector with the health and hygiene conditions that are necessary for effective disease control, which in turn provides greater security for international trade and increased consumer protection. PMID:15200088

  8. Modeling daily flow patterns individuals to characterize disease spread

    SciTech Connect

    Smallwood, J.; Hyman, J. M.; Mirchandani, Pitu B.

    2002-11-17

    The effect of an individual's travels throughout a day on the spread of disease is examined using a deterministic SIR model. We determine which spatial and demographic characteristics most contribute to the disease spread and whether the progression of the disease can be slowed by appropriate vaccination of people belonging to a specific location-type.

  9. Adapting existing models of highly contagious diseases to countries other than their country of origin.

    PubMed

    Dubé, C; Sanchez, J; Reeves, A

    2011-08-01

    Many countries do not have the resources to develop epidemiological models of animal diseases. As a result, it is tempting to use models developed in other countries. However, an existing model may need to be adapted in order for it to be appropriately applied in a country, region, or situation other than that for which it was originally developed. The process of adapting a model has a number of benefits for both model builders and model users. For model builders, it provides insight into the applicability of their model and potentially the opportunity to obtain data for operational validation of components of their model. For users, it is a chance to think about the infection transmission process in detail, to review the data available for modelling, and to learn the principles of epidemiological modelling. Various issues must be addressed when considering adapting a model. Most critically, the assumptions and purpose behind the model must be thoroughly understood, so that new users can determine its suitability for their situation. The process of adapting a model might simply involve changing existing model parameter values (for example, to better represent livestock demographics in a country or region), or might require more substantial (and more labour-intensive) changes to the model code and conceptual model. Adapting a model is easier if the model has a user-friendly interface and easy-to-read user documentation. In addition, models built as frameworks within which disease processes and livestock demographics and contacts are flexible are good candidates for technology transfer projects, which lead to long-term collaborations. PMID:21961228

  10. A deterministic model for highly contagious diseases: The case of varicella

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acedo, L.; Moraño, J.-A.; Santonja, F.-J.; Villanueva, R.-J.

    2016-05-01

    The classic nonlinear Kermack-McKendrick model based upon a system of differential equations has been widely applied to model the rise and fall of global pandemic and also seasonal epidemic by introducing a forced harmonic infectivity which would change throughout the year. These methods work well in their respective domains of applicability, and for certain diseases, but they fail when both seasonality and high infectivity are combined. In this paper we consider a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, or SIR, model with two latent states to model the propagation and evolutionary history of varicella in humans. We show that infectivity can be calculated from real data and we find a nonstandard seasonal variation that cannot be fitted with a single harmonic. Moreover, we show that infectivity for the present strains of the virus has raised following a sigmoid function in a period of several centuries. This could allow the design of vaccination strategies and the study of the epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster.

  11. Pastoral care of patients with Ebola Virus Disease: A medical and canonical opinion about pastoral visits to patients with contagious and highly fatal diseases

    PubMed Central

    Hannan, Stephen E.; Nguyen, Benedict T.

    2015-01-01

    The Ebola Virus Disease is a contagious and highly fatal illness that up until recently had been geographically limited to remote areas of Africa. In 2014, Ebola patients have been transported to the United States for care or have been newly diagnosed in the United States. With the intensive medical care and isolation policies usually needed by these patients, we inquired whether pastoral care would be possible. Using clinical and canonical considerations, we analyzed the permissibility and logistical challenges pastoral care presents to the priests and lay ministers, as well as the healthcare system. We conclude that with the approval of local, state, and federal health officials, pastoral care, including provision of the sacraments, is possible. It would require proper training, proper equipment and policies, and a significant commitment of time. While the risk to the pastoral team is difficult to define, it seems low in an Ebola-capable medical system. These risks to priests and ministers seem reasonable given the inestimable benefits of receiving the sacraments during critical illness. Lay summary: Traditional pastoral visits to hospitalized patients might prove difficult or impossible for diseases that are contagious and highly fatal. This inquiry examines the feasibility, challenges, and logistical solutions to these visits. With input from bishops, priests, a canon lawyer, an epidemiologist, a physician, the CDC, and others, we conclude that pastoral visits are possible. Visits will require permission of health authorities, commitments of time, training, and a small but significant risk to the health of priests and others who volunteer for this ministry. PMID:25999614

  12. Suppressing disease spreading by using information diffusion on multiplex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wei; Liu, Quan-Hui; Cai, Shi-Min; Tang, Ming; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2016-07-01

    Although there is always an interplay between the dynamics of information diffusion and disease spreading, the empirical research on the systemic coevolution mechanisms connecting these two spreading dynamics is still lacking. Here we investigate the coevolution mechanisms and dynamics between information and disease spreading by utilizing real data and a proposed spreading model on multiplex network. Our empirical analysis finds asymmetrical interactions between the information and disease spreading dynamics. Our results obtained from both the theoretical framework and extensive stochastic numerical simulations suggest that an information outbreak can be triggered in a communication network by its own spreading dynamics or by a disease outbreak on a contact network, but that the disease threshold is not affected by information spreading. Our key finding is that there is an optimal information transmission rate that markedly suppresses the disease spreading. We find that the time evolution of the dynamics in the proposed model qualitatively agrees with the real-world spreading processes at the optimal information transmission rate.

  13. Suppressing disease spreading by using information diffusion on multiplex networks.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wei; Liu, Quan-Hui; Cai, Shi-Min; Tang, Ming; Braunstein, Lidia A; Stanley, H Eugene

    2016-01-01

    Although there is always an interplay between the dynamics of information diffusion and disease spreading, the empirical research on the systemic coevolution mechanisms connecting these two spreading dynamics is still lacking. Here we investigate the coevolution mechanisms and dynamics between information and disease spreading by utilizing real data and a proposed spreading model on multiplex network. Our empirical analysis finds asymmetrical interactions between the information and disease spreading dynamics. Our results obtained from both the theoretical framework and extensive stochastic numerical simulations suggest that an information outbreak can be triggered in a communication network by its own spreading dynamics or by a disease outbreak on a contact network, but that the disease threshold is not affected by information spreading. Our key finding is that there is an optimal information transmission rate that markedly suppresses the disease spreading. We find that the time evolution of the dynamics in the proposed model qualitatively agrees with the real-world spreading processes at the optimal information transmission rate. PMID:27380881

  14. Suppressing disease spreading by using information diffusion on multiplex networks

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Wei; Liu, Quan-Hui; Cai, Shi-Min; Tang, Ming; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2016-01-01

    Although there is always an interplay between the dynamics of information diffusion and disease spreading, the empirical research on the systemic coevolution mechanisms connecting these two spreading dynamics is still lacking. Here we investigate the coevolution mechanisms and dynamics between information and disease spreading by utilizing real data and a proposed spreading model on multiplex network. Our empirical analysis finds asymmetrical interactions between the information and disease spreading dynamics. Our results obtained from both the theoretical framework and extensive stochastic numerical simulations suggest that an information outbreak can be triggered in a communication network by its own spreading dynamics or by a disease outbreak on a contact network, but that the disease threshold is not affected by information spreading. Our key finding is that there is an optimal information transmission rate that markedly suppresses the disease spreading. We find that the time evolution of the dynamics in the proposed model qualitatively agrees with the real-world spreading processes at the optimal information transmission rate. PMID:27380881

  15. Childhood Contagious Diseases

    MedlinePlus

    ... 2006-2013 Logical Images, Inc. All rights reserved. Advertising Notice This Site and third parties who place ... would like to obtain more information about these advertising practices and to make choices about online behavioral ...

  16. Contagious yawning in chimpanzees.

    PubMed

    Anderson, James R; Myowa-Yamakoshi, Masako; Matsuzawa, Tetsuro

    2004-12-01

    Six adult female chimpanzees were shown video scenes of chimpanzees repeatedly yawning or of chimpanzees showing open-mouth facial expressions that were not yawns. Two out of the six females showed significantly higher frequencies of yawning in response to yawn videos; no chimpanzees showed the inverse. Three infant chimpanzees that accompanied their mothers did not yawn at all. These data are highly reminiscent of the contagious yawning effects reported for humans. Contagious yawning is thought to be based on the capacity for empathy. Contagious yawning in chimpanzees provides further evidence that these apes may possess advanced self-awareness and empathic abilities. PMID:15801606

  17. Factors influencing the international spread of equine diseases.

    PubMed

    Timoney, P J

    2000-12-01

    In an era of increasing globalization, the risk of spread of infectious diseases in humans and animals, including equids, has never been greater. International movement of equids and trade in semen are the most important factors responsible for the dissemination of various equine pathogens. Other factors that can or do have the potential to influence the global distribution of equine infectious diseases include: multinational trade agreements, emergent diseases, mutation of pathogens, climate related phenomena, migration of amplifying/reservoir hosts or vectors, availability of new vectors, vaccine contamination and agroterrorism. The relative importance of each of these factors is considered in relation to the spread of equine diseases. PMID:11219348

  18. Global Transport Networks and Infectious Disease Spread

    PubMed Central

    Tatem, A.J.; Rogers, D.J.; Hay, S.I.

    2011-01-01

    Air, sea and land transport networks continue to expand in reach, speed of travel and volume of passengers and goods carried. Pathogens and their vectors can now move further, faster and in greater numbers than ever before. Three important consequences of global transport network expansion are infectious disease pandemics, vector invasion events and vector-borne pathogen importation. This review briefly examines some of the important historical examples of these disease and vector movements, such as the global influenza pandemics, the devastating Anopheles gambiae invasion of Brazil and the recent increases in imported Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases. We then outline potential approaches for future studies of disease movement, focussing on vector invasion and vector-borne disease importation. Such approaches allow us to explore the potential implications of international air travel, shipping routes and other methods of transport on global pathogen and vector traffic. PMID:16647974

  19. International spread of disease by air travel.

    PubMed

    Royal, L; McCoubrey, I

    1989-11-01

    Rapid air travel has increased the potential for international transmission of infectious diseases. Important aspects of this problem include the transmission of foodborne and waterborne illnesses, the translocation of insect vectors, the rapid transport of individuals with incubating illnesses, the direct transmission of diseases inside aircraft and the transmission of zoonoses through animal transport. Infectious outbreaks on aircraft and in the vicinity of airports have included influenza, staphylococcal gastroenteritis, salmonellosis, cholera and malaria. PMID:2683687

  20. Structural vulnerability of the French swine industry trade network to the spread of infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Rautureau, S; Dufour, B; Durand, B

    2012-07-01

    The networks generated by live animal movements are the principal vector for the propagation of infectious agents between farms, and their topology strongly affects how fast a disease may spread. The structural characteristics of networks may thus provide indicators of network vulnerability to the spread of infectious disease. This study applied social network analysis methods to describe the French swine trade network. Initial analysis involved calculating several parameters to characterize networks and then identifying high-risk subgroups of holdings for different time scales. Holding-specific centrality measurements ('degree', 'betweenness' and 'ingoing infection chain'), which summarize the place and the role of holdings in the network, were compared according to the production type. In addition, network components and communities, areas where connectedness is particularly high and could influence the speed and the extent of a disease, were identified and analysed. Dealer holdings stood out because of their high centrality values suggesting that these holdings may control the flow of animals in part of the network. Herds with growing units had higher values for degree and betweenness centrality, representing central positions for both spreading and receiving disease, whereas herds with finishing units had higher values for in-degree and ingoing infection chain centrality values and appeared more vulnerable with many contacts through live animal movements and thus at potentially higher risk for introduction of contagious diseases. This reflects the dynamics of the swine trade with downward movements along the production chain. But, the significant heterogeneity of farms with several production units did not reveal any particular type of production for targeting disease surveillance or control. Besides, no giant strong connected component was observed, the network being rather organized according to communities of small or medium size (<20% of network size

  1. Risk of Disease Spread through Bioterrorism

    SciTech Connect

    Weller, Richard E.

    2006-08-01

    Bioterrorism is seen as a clear and present danger, although historically, acts of bioterrorism have been relatively unpredictable, rare and, thus far, small-scale events. The risk of an event is elevated by increasing contact among species and a global connectivity that provides rapid dissemination of infectious diseases regardless of origin. Virtually any pathogenic microbe could be used by bioterrorists. An attack may be difficult to distinguish from a naturally occurring infectious disease outbreak; however, consequences are likely to be similar. The U.S. agricultural sector is extremely vulnerable to bioterrorist attacks because our animals and plants have little or no innate resistance to foreign pathogens and are not vaccinated or otherwise protected against these diseases. It is also important to note that weapons or delivery systems are not an issue because the animals and plants themselves are the primary vector for transferring agents. Most bioterrorism agents are zoonotic in origin, thus an attack on animal populations could pose a health risk to humans. Additionally, disease outbreaks resulting from bioterrorism could jump to wildlife species, persist in the environment, replace locally adapted enzootic strains, expand their range, or emerge as a new zoonotic disease in naïve human and animal populations.

  2. No evidence for contagious yawning in lemurs.

    PubMed

    Reddy, Rachna B; Krupenye, Christopher; MacLean, Evan L; Hare, Brian

    2016-09-01

    Among some haplorhine primates, including humans, relaxed yawns spread contagiously. Such contagious yawning has been linked to social bonds and empathy in some species. However, no studies have investigated contagious yawning in strepsirhines. We conducted an experimental study of contagious yawning in strepsirhines, testing ring-tailed and ruffed lemurs (n = 24) in a paradigm similar to one that has induced contagious yawning in haplorhines. First, in a control experiment, we investigated whether lemurs responded to projected video content in general (experiment 1). We showed them two videos to which we expected differential responses: one featured a terrestrial predator and the other a caretaker holding food. Next, to test for yawn contagion, we showed individual lemurs life-size video projections of groupmates and conspecific strangers yawning, and control footage of the same individuals at rest (experiment 2). Then, to examine whether a group context might enhance or allow for contagion, we exposed subjects to the same videos in a group setting (experiment 3). Lemurs produced alarm vocalizations and moved upward while viewing the predator, but not the caretaker, demonstrating that they do perceive video content meaningfully. However, lemurs did not yawn in response to yawning stimuli when tested alone, or with their groupmates. This study provides preliminary evidence that lemurs do not respond to yawning stimuli similarly to haplorhines, and suggests that this behavior may have evolved or become more exaggerated in haplorhines after the two major primate lineages split. PMID:27075549

  3. Techniques for Preventing the Spread of Infectious Diseases.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Dept. of Education, Sacramento.

    Specific procedures are outlined for prevention of the spread of infectious diseases with techniques of handwashing, diapering, and handling of known disease carriers. Protocols for classroom cleanliness list essential steps and key points and precautions for maintaining a hygienic environment. This section includes a list of protocols for food…

  4. Voluntary vaccination strategy and the spread of sexually transmitted diseases.

    PubMed

    Xu, Fei; Cressman, Ross

    2016-04-01

    In this work, we investigate the spread and control of sexually transmitted diseases when a game-theory based vaccination strategy is involved. An individual's decision on vaccination uptake may follow a cost-benefit analysis since the individual obtains immunity against the disease from the vaccination and, at the same time, may have some perceived side effects. Evolutionary game theory is integrated into the epidemic model to reveal the relationship between individuals' voluntary decisions on vaccination uptake and the spread and control of such diseases. We show that decreasing the perceived cost of taking vaccine or increasing the payoff from social obligation is beneficial to controlling the disease. It is also shown how the "degree of rationality" of males and females affects the disease spread through the net payoff of the game. In particular, individual awareness of the consequences of the disease on the infectives also contributes to slowing down the disease spread. By analyzing an asymmetric version of our evolutionary game, it is shown that the disease is better controlled when individuals are more sensitive to fitness differences when net payoff is positive than when it is negative. PMID:26877073

  5. [Cortical spreading depolarization: a new pathophysiological mechanism in neurological diseases].

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Porras, Renán; Robles-Cabrera, Adriana; Santos, Edgar

    2014-05-20

    Cortical spreading depolarization is a wave of almost complete depolarization of the neuronal and glial cells that occurs in different neurological diseases such as migraine with aura, subarachnoid hemorrhage, intracerebral hemorrhage, head trauma and stroke. These depolarization waves are characterized by a change in the negative potential with an amplitude between -10 and -30mV, duration of ∼1min and changes in the ion homeostasis between the intra- and extracellular space. This results in neuronal edema and dendritic distortion. Under pathologic states of hypoperfusion, cortical spreading depolarization can produce oxidative stress, worsen hypoxia and induce neuronal death. This is due to intense arterial vasoconstriction produced by an inverse response called spreading ischemia. Only in the last years there has been an electrophysiological confirmation of cortical spreading depolarization in human brains. Occurrence of cortical spreading depolarization has been associated with worse outcome in patients. Currently, increased knowledge regarding the pathophysiologic mechanisms supports the hypothetical correlation of cortical spreading depolarization with brain damage in humans. There are diverse therapeutic alternatives that promise inhibition of cortical spreading depolarization and subsequent better outcomes. PMID:23928069

  6. The Committee Studying Contagious Disease Training for Public Safety Personnel. Report of the Committee on Training of the Criminal Justice Services Board to the Governor and the General Assembly of Virginia. House Document No. 15.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Virginia State Dept. of Criminal Justice Services, Richmond.

    Through discussion and extensive research, the Committee Studying Contagious Disease Training attempted to address concerns regarding education and training of public safety personnel with regard to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV). The committee's findings were based on Occupational Safety and Health Administration…

  7. How Long Is Mono Contagious?

    MedlinePlus

    ... Can I Help a Friend Who Cuts? How Long Is Mono Contagious? KidsHealth > For Teens > How Long Is Mono Contagious? Print A A A Text ... so lots of people are confused about how long it is contagious. Once someone gets mono, the ...

  8. Mathematical analysis of dynamic spread of Pine Wilt disease.

    PubMed

    Dimitrijevic, D D; Bacic, J

    2013-01-01

    Since its detection in Portugal in 1999, the pinewood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner and Buhrer), a causal agent of Pine Wilt Disease, represents a threat to European forestry. Significant amount of money has been spent on its monitoring and eradication. This paper presents mathematical analysis of spread of pine wilt disease using a set of partial differential equations with space (longitude and latitude) and time as parameters of estimated spread of disease. This methodology can be used to evaluate risk of various assumed entry points of disease and make defense plans in advance. In case of an already existing outbreak, it can be used to draw optimal line of defense and plan removal of trees. Optimization constraints are economic loss of removal of susceptible trees as well as budgetary constraints of workforce cost. PMID:25151817

  9. Spreading of sexually transmitted diseases in heterosexual populations

    PubMed Central

    Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Latora, Vito; Moreno, Yamir; Profumo, Elio

    2008-01-01

    The spread of sexually transmitted diseases (e.g., chlamydia, syphilis, gonorrhea, HIV, etc.) across populations is a major concern for scientists and health agencies. In this context, both the data collection on sexual contact networks and the modeling of disease spreading are intensive contributions to the search for effective immunization policies. Here, the spreading of sexually transmitted diseases on bipartite scale-free graphs, representing heterosexual contact networks, is considered. We analytically derive the expression for the epidemic threshold and its dependence with the system size in finite populations. We show that the epidemic outbreak in bipartite populations, with number of sexual partners distributed as in empirical observations from national sex surveys, takes place for larger spreading rates than for the case in which the bipartite nature of the network is not taken into account. Numerical simulations confirm the validity of the theoretical results. Our findings indicate that the restriction to crossed infections between the two classes of individuals (males and females) has to be taken into account in the design of efficient immunization strategies for sexually transmitted diseases. PMID:18212127

  10. Airline operating realities and the global spread of infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Webster, Cliff H

    2010-07-01

    The advent of long-haul travel in the past 10 years has considerably reduced the time of potential disease spread from one side of the world to the other. The implication for travelers is that they may unwittingly be in the prodromal phase of influenza and become symptomatic a few days after travel. Alternatively they may knowingly travel with an infectious disease by masking symptoms. This article outlines the myths that have abounded about the cabin environment being "unclean" and discusses the low likelihood of in-flight transmission with effective air-conditioning and filtration systems. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic highlighted the operational challenges of dealing with infectious disease, including the need for accurate passenger information to allow contact tracing, in contrast to futile measures such as thermal scanners. Containment attempts did not stop the rapid global spread of H1N1 influenza. PMID:20566546

  11. Spreading of diseases through comorbidity networks across life and gender

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chmiel, Anna; Klimek, Peter; Thurner, Stefan

    2014-11-01

    The state of health of patients is typically not characterized by a single disease alone but by multiple (comorbid) medical conditions. These comorbidities may depend strongly on age and gender. We propose a specific phenomenological comorbidity network of human diseases that is based on medical claims data of the entire population of Austria. The network is constructed from a two-layer multiplex network, where in one layer the links represent the conditional probability for a comorbidity, and in the other the links contain the respective statistical significance. We show that the network undergoes dramatic structural changes across the lifetime of patients. Disease networks for children consist of a single, strongly interconnected cluster. During adolescence and adulthood further disease clusters emerge that are related to specific classes of diseases, such as circulatory, mental, or genitourinary disorders. For people over 65 these clusters start to merge, and highly connected hubs dominate the network. These hubs are related to hypertension, chronic ischemic heart diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. We introduce a simple diffusion model to understand the spreading of diseases on the disease network at the population level. For the first time we are able to show that patients predominantly develop diseases that are in close network proximity to disorders that they already suffer. The model explains more than 85% of the variance of all disease incidents in the population. The presented methodology could be of importance for anticipating age-dependent disease profiles for entire populations, and for design and validation of prevention strategies.

  12. The landscape genetics of infectious disease emergence and spread

    PubMed Central

    Biek, Roman; Real, Leslie A.

    2011-01-01

    The spread of parasites is inherently a spatial process often embedded in physically complex landscapes. It is therefore not surprising that infectious disease researchers are increasingly taking a landscape genetics perspective to elucidate mechanisms underlying basic ecological processes driving infectious disease dynamics and to understand the linkage between spatially-dependent population processes and the geographic distribution of genetic variation within both hosts and parasites. The increasing availability of genetic information on hosts and parasites when coupled to their ecological interactions can lead to insights for predicting patterns of disease emergence, spread, and control. Here, we review research progress in this area based on four different motivations for the application of landscape genetics approaches: (1) assessing the spatial organization of genetic variation in parasites as a function of environmental variability, (2) using host population genetic structure as a means to parameterize ecological dynamics that indirectly influence parasite populations, e.g. gene flow and movement pathways across heterogeneous landscapes and the concurrent transport of infectious agents, (3) elucidating the temporal and spatial scales of disease processes, and (4) reconstructing and understanding infectious disease invasion. Throughout this review, we emphasise that landscape genetic principles are relevant to infection dynamics across a range of scales from within host dynamics to global geographic patterns and that they can also be applied to unconventional “landscapes” such as heterogeneous contact networks underlying the spread of human and livestock diseases. We conclude by discussing some general considerations and problems for inferring epidemiological processes from genetic data and try to identify possible future directions and applications for this rapidly expanding field. PMID:20618897

  13. Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    Gloster, J; Jones, A; Redington, A; Burgin, L; Sorensen, J H; Turner, R; Dillon, M; Hullinger, P; Simpson, M; Astrup, P; Garner, G; Stewart, P; D'Amours, R; Sellers, R; Paton, D

    2008-09-04

    Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly infectious vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed animals caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus. It spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route - with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Over the years a number of workers have developed or adapted atmospheric dispersion models to assess the risk of foot-and-mouth disease virus spread through the air. Six of these models were compared at a workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office during 2008. A number of key issues emerged from the workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all of the models predicted similar directions for 'at risk' livestock with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; and (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate, and subsequent infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. Close relationships have now been established between participants, which in the event of an outbreak of disease could be readily activated to supply advice or modelling support.

  14. Effects of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Host Mortality on Disease Spread.

    PubMed

    Rapti, Z; Cáceres, C E

    2016-02-01

    The virulent effects of a pathogen on host fecundity and mortality (both intrinsic and extrinsic mortality due to predation) often increase with the age of infection. Age of infection often is also correlated with parasite fitness, in terms of the number of both infective propagules produced and the between-host transmission rate. We introduce a four-population partial differential equations (PDE) model to investigate the invasibility and prevalence of an obligately killing fungal parasite in a zooplankton host as they are embedded in an ecological network of predators and resources. Our results provide key insights into the role of ecological interactions that vary with the age of infection. First, selective predation, which is known both theoretically and empirically to reduce disease prevalence, does not always limit disease spread. This condition dependency relies on the timing and intensity of selective predation and how that interacts with the direct effects of the parasite on host mortality. Second, low host resources and intense predation can prevent disease spread, but once conditions allow the invasion of the parasite, the qualitative dynamics of the system do not depend on the intensity of the selective predation. Third, a comparison of the PDE model with a model based on ordinary differential equations (ODE model) reveals a parametrization for the ODE version that yields an endemic steady state and basic reproductive ratio that are identical to those in the PDE model. Our results highlight the complexity of resource-host-parasite-predator interactions and suggest the need for additional data-theory coupling exploring how community ecology influences the spread of infectious diseases. PMID:26857380

  15. Risk-based design of repeated surveys for the documentation of freedom from non-highly contagious diseases.

    PubMed

    Hadorn, Daniela C; Rüfenacht, Jürg; Hauser, Ruth; Stärk, Katharina D C

    2002-12-30

    The documentation of freedom from disease requires reliable information on the actual disease status in a specific animal population. The implementation of active surveillance (surveys) is an effective method to gain this information. For economical reasons, the sample size should be as small as possible but large enough to achieve the required confidence level for a targeted threshold. When conducting surveys repeatedly, various information sources about the disease status of the population can be taken into account to adjust the required level of confidence for a follow-up survey (e.g. risk assessments regarding disease introduction and results of previous surveys). As a benefit, the sample size for national surveys can be reduced considerably. We illustrate this risk-based approach using examples of national surveys conducted in Switzerland. The sample size for the documentation of freedom from enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) and Brucella melitensis in sheep and in goats could be reduced from 2325 to 415 cattle herds, from 2325 to 838 sheep herds and from 1975 to 761 goat herds, respectively. PMID:12441234

  16. Asymptomatic spread of huanglongbing and implications for disease control.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jo Ann; Halbert, Susan E; Dawson, William O; Robertson, Cecile J; Keesling, James E; Singer, Burton H

    2015-06-16

    Huanglongbing (HLB) is a bacterial infection of citrus trees transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri. Mitigation of HLB has focused on spraying of insecticides to reduce the psyllid population and removal of trees when they first show symptoms of the disease. These interventions have been only marginally effective, because symptoms of HLB do not appear on leaves for months to years after initial infection. Limited knowledge about disease spread during the asymptomatic phase is exemplified by the heretofore unknown length of time from initial infection of newly developing cluster of young leaves, called flush, by adult psyllids until the flush become infectious. We present experimental evidence showing that young flush become infectious within 15 d after receiving an inoculum of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (bacteria). Using this critical fact, we specify a microsimulation model of asymptomatic disease spread and intensity in a grove of citrus trees. We apply a range of psyllid introduction scenarios to show that entire groves can become infected with up to 12,000 psyllids per tree in less than 1 y, before most of the trees show any symptoms. We also show that intervention strategies that reduce the psyllid population by 75% during the flushing periods can delay infection of a full grove, and thereby reduce the amount of insecticide used throughout a year. This result implies that psyllid surveillance and control, using a variety of recently available technologies, should be used from the initial detection of invasion and throughout the asymptomatic period. PMID:26034273

  17. Asymptomatic spread of huanglongbing and implications for disease control

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jo Ann; Halbert, Susan E.; Dawson, William O.; Robertson, Cecile J.; Keesling, James E.; Singer, Burton H.

    2015-01-01

    Huanglongbing (HLB) is a bacterial infection of citrus trees transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri. Mitigation of HLB has focused on spraying of insecticides to reduce the psyllid population and removal of trees when they first show symptoms of the disease. These interventions have been only marginally effective, because symptoms of HLB do not appear on leaves for months to years after initial infection. Limited knowledge about disease spread during the asymptomatic phase is exemplified by the heretofore unknown length of time from initial infection of newly developing cluster of young leaves, called flush, by adult psyllids until the flush become infectious. We present experimental evidence showing that young flush become infectious within 15 d after receiving an inoculum of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (bacteria). Using this critical fact, we specify a microsimulation model of asymptomatic disease spread and intensity in a grove of citrus trees. We apply a range of psyllid introduction scenarios to show that entire groves can become infected with up to 12,000 psyllids per tree in less than 1 y, before most of the trees show any symptoms. We also show that intervention strategies that reduce the psyllid population by 75% during the flushing periods can delay infection of a full grove, and thereby reduce the amount of insecticide used throughout a year. This result implies that psyllid surveillance and control, using a variety of recently available technologies, should be used from the initial detection of invasion and throughout the asymptomatic period. PMID:26034273

  18. Corruption and Spread of Pathogenic Proteins in Neurodegenerative Diseases*

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Lary C.; LeVine, Harry

    2012-01-01

    With advancing age, the brain becomes increasingly susceptible to neurodegenerative diseases, most of which are characterized by the misfolding and errant aggregation of certain proteins. The induction of aggregation involves a crystallization-like seeding mechanism by which a specific protein is structurally corrupted by its misfolded conformer. The latest research indicates that, once formed, proteopathic seeds can spread from one locale to another via cellular uptake, transport, and release. Impeding this process could represent a unified therapeutic strategy for slowing the progression of a wide range of currently intractable disorders. PMID:22879600

  19. Computational Study of Ventilation and Disease Spread in Poultry Houses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cimbala, John; Pawar, Sourabh; Wheeler, Eileen; Lindberg, Darla

    2006-11-01

    The air flow in and around poultry houses has been studied numerically with the goal of determining disease spread characteristics and comparing ventilation schemes. A typical manure-belt layer egg production facility is considered. The continuity, momentum, and energy equations are solved for flow both inside and outside poultry houses using the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT. Both simplified two-dimensional and fully three-dimensional geometries are modeled. The spread of virus particles is considered to be analogous to diffusion of a tracer contaminant gas, in this case ammonia. The effect of thermal plumes produced by the hens in the poultry house is also considered. Two ventilation schemes with opposite flow directions are compared. Contours of temperature and ammonia mass fraction for both cases are obtained and compared. The analysis shows that ventilation and air quality characteristics are much better for the case in which the air flow is from bottom to top (enhancing the thermal plume) instead of from top to bottom (fighting the thermal plume) as in most poultry houses. This has implications in air quality control in the event of epidemic outbreaks of avian flu or other infectious diseases.

  20. Prevention of spread of communicable disease by air travel.

    PubMed

    Evans, Anthony D; Thibeault, Claude

    2009-07-01

    Mathematical modeling suggests that travel restrictions are likely to have only a limited effect on minimizing the spread of disease. Nevertheless, medical screening of travelers remains an option to be considered in a risk-reduction strategy. Screening of departing and/or arriving travelers are possibilities, although the World Health Organization (WHO) favors the former as it is normally easier to geographically contain a disease prior to its transmission outside the outbreak area. Apart from airport screening, several other related issues require consideration, including: transmission of disease on board aircraft; transmission of disease in airport terminal buildings; and contact tracing. A major challenge is to ensure adequate resources are devoted to pandemic preparedness planning in the aviation sector, which may not be fully considered in a national preparedness plan. This is because the prevention of accidents occupies most of the attention of regulatory aviation authorities, and public health authorities do not always see aviation as a priority area. Chief medical officers of regulatory authorities may be in a position to facilitate collaboration between the many stakeholders involved in preparedness planning for aviation. PMID:19601500

  1. Does genetic diversity limit disease spread in natural host populations?

    PubMed Central

    King, K C; Lively, C M

    2012-01-01

    It is a commonly held view that genetically homogenous host populations are more vulnerable to infection than genetically diverse populations. The underlying idea, known as the ‘monoculture effect,' is well documented in agricultural studies. Low genetic diversity in the wild can result from bottlenecks (that is, founder effects), biparental inbreeding or self-fertilization, any of which might increase the risk of epidemics. Host genetic diversity could buffer populations against epidemics in nature, but it is not clear how much diversity is required to prevent disease spread. Recent theoretical and empirical studies, particularly in Daphnia populations, have helped to establish that genetic diversity can reduce parasite transmission. Here, we review the present theoretical work and empirical evidence, and we suggest a new focus on finding ‘diversity thresholds.' PMID:22713998

  2. Alpha-synuclein spreading in Parkinson’s disease

    PubMed Central

    Recasens, Ariadna; Dehay, Benjamin

    2014-01-01

    Formation and accumulation of misfolded protein aggregates are a central hallmark of several neurodegenerative diseases. In Parkinson’s disease (PD), the aggregation-prone protein alpha-synuclein (α-syn) is the culprit. In the past few years, another piece of the puzzle has been added with data suggesting that α-syn may self-propagate, thereby contributing to the progression and extension of PD. Of particular importance, it was the seminal observation of Lewy bodies (LB), a histopathological signature of PD, in grafted fetal dopaminergic neurons in the striatum of PD patients. Consequently, these findings were a conceptual breakthrough, generating the “host to graft transmission” hypothesis, also called the “prion-like hypothesis.” Several in vitro and in vivo studies suggest that α-syn can undergo a toxic templated conformational change, spread from cell to cell and from region to region, and initiate the formation of “LB–like aggregates,” contributing to the PD pathogenesis. Here, we will review and discuss the current knowledge for such a putative mechanism on the prion-like nature of α-syn, and discuss about the proper use of the term prion-like. PMID:25565982

  3. The costs of preventive activities for exotic contagious diseases-A Danish case study of foot and mouth disease and swine fever.

    PubMed

    Denver, Sigrid; Alban, Lis; Boklund, Anette; Houe, Hans; Mortensen, Sten; Rattenborg, Erik; Tamstorf, Trine Vig; Zobbe, Henrik; Christensen, Tove

    2016-09-01

    The present paper provides an overview of the costs of preventive activities, currently undertaken in Denmark, related to foot and mouth disease (FMD) and classical and African swine fever (SF). Only costs held between outbreaks were included. Costs were divided into public costs and costs paid by the pig and cattle industries, respectively. Data were retrieved from multiple sources such as databases, legal documents, official statistics, yearly reports and expert opinions. As no previous studies have assessed such costs, data collection and estimation procedures were discussed and decided upon in a group of experts from universities, industry, and public authorities. The costs of each preventive activity were related to the type of activity, the number of times the activity was carried out and the share of costs that could be associated with FMD or SF. Uncertainty about parameters was incorporated in the analysis by assuming that the FMD/SF shares of costs as well as total costs for each activity could take on a most likely as well as a minimum and maximum value. A high degree of transparency was prioritized in the cost analysis, which enables reproducibility and easy access to conducting sensitivity analyses. A total of 27 FMD/SF preventive activities were identified. The estimated median (minimum-maximum) of total costs amounted to €32 (18-50) million in 2013. The single most costly FMD/SF related activity, amounting to €8 (5-13) million or 26% of total costs, was a national legal requirement to clean lorries immediately after transportation of live animals. The distribution of costs between stakeholders was estimated to be as follows: pig industry 63%, cattle industry 27%, and the public authorities 10%. Most of the activities focused on reducing the probability of spreading FMD/SF, while only a few activities were directed mainly towards reducing the probability of introduction. Legally required FMD/SF activities (mainly based on EU legislation) accounted

  4. 21 CFR 1271.145 - Prevention of the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... spread of communicable diseases. 1271.145 Section 1271.145 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION... diseases. You must recover, process, store, label, package, and distribute HCT/Ps, and screen and test cell... diseases....

  5. 21 CFR 1271.145 - Prevention of the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... spread of communicable diseases. 1271.145 Section 1271.145 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION... diseases. You must recover, process, store, label, package, and distribute HCT/Ps, and screen and test cell... diseases....

  6. 21 CFR 1271.145 - Prevention of the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... spread of communicable diseases. 1271.145 Section 1271.145 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION... diseases. You must recover, process, store, label, package, and distribute HCT/Ps, and screen and test cell... diseases....

  7. 21 CFR 1271.145 - Prevention of the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... spread of communicable diseases. 1271.145 Section 1271.145 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION... diseases. You must recover, process, store, label, package, and distribute HCT/Ps, and screen and test cell... diseases....

  8. Spreading of periodic diseases and synchronization phenomena on networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ababou, M.; Vandewalle, N.; Moussa, N.; El Bouziani, M.; Ludewig, F.

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we investigate numerically the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model on an exponential network generated by a preferential attachment procedure. The discrete SIRS model considers two main parameters: the duration τ0 of the complete infection-recovery cycle and the duration τI of infection. A permanent source of infection I0 has also been introduced in order to avoid the vanishing of the disease in the SIRS model. The fraction of infected agents is found to oscillate with a period T≥τ0. Simulations reveal that the average fraction of infected agents depends on I0 and τI/τ0. A maximum of synchronization of infected agents, i.e. a maximum amplitude of periodic spreading oscillations, is found to occur when the ratio τI/τ0 is slightly smaller than 1/2. The model is in agreement with the general observation that an outbreak corresponds to high τI/τ0 values.

  9. Contagious cancer: lessons from the devil and the dog.

    PubMed

    Belov, Katherine

    2012-04-01

    Cancer is generally defined as uncontrollable growth of cells caused by genetic aberrations and/or environmental factors. Yet contagious cancers also occur. The recent emergence of a contagious cancer in Tasmanian devils has reignited interest in transmissible cancers. Two naturally occurring transmissible cancers are known: devil facial tumour disease and canine transmissible venereal tumour. Both cancers evolved once and have then been transmitted from one individual to another as clonal cell lines. The dog cancer is ancient; having evolved more than 6,000 years ago, while the devil disease was first seen in 1996. In this review I will compare and contrast the two diseases focusing on the life histories of the clonal cell lines, their evolutionary trajectories and the mechanisms by which they have achieved immune tolerance. A greater understanding of these contagious cancers will provide unique insights into the role of the immune system in shaping tumour evolution and may uncover novel approaches for treating human cancer. PMID:22383221

  10. Contagious Yawning in Autistic and Typical Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Helt, Molly S.; Eigsti, Inge-Marie; Snyder, Peter J.; Fein, Deborah A.

    2010-01-01

    The authors tested susceptibility to contagious yawning in 120 children, 1-6 years, to identify the time course of its emergence during development. Results indicated a substantial increase in the frequency of contagious yawning at 4 years. In a second study, the authors examined contagious yawning in 28 children with autism spectrum disorders…

  11. Predicting the establishment and spread of plant disease from regulatory sampling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Invasive plant diseases can have devastating consequences on the local plant populations, in both agricultural and natural landscapes. Knowledge of the spatial patterns of pathogen spread can be used to guide more time- and cost-effective disease management strategies. Based on disease dispersal pri...

  12. Investigating the potential spread of infectious diseases of sheep via agricultural shows in Great Britain.

    PubMed

    Webb, C R

    2006-02-01

    The rate at which infectious diseases spread through farm animal populations depends both on individual disease characteristics and the opportunity for transmission via close contact. Data on the relationships affecting the contact structure of farm animal populations are, therefore, required to improve mathematical models for the spatial spread of farm animal diseases. This paper presents data on the contact network for agricultural shows in Great Britain, whereby a link between two shows occurs if they share common competitors in the sheep class. Using the network, the potential for disease spread through agricultural shows is investigated varying both the initial show infected and the infectious period of the disease. The analysis reveals a highly connected network such that diseases introduced early in the show season could present a risk to sheep at the majority of subsequent shows. This data emphasizes the importance of maintaining rigorous showground and farm-level bio-security. PMID:16409648

  13. Genetic bases for Marek's disease resistance

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Marek's disease (MD) is a highly contagious lymphoproliferative disease of chickens caused by MD virus (MDV). Therefore, the control of MD is of particular concern to the poultry industry. The poultry industry has been heavily relying on biosecurity and vaccination to control the spread and occurren...

  14. Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belik, Vitaly; Geisel, Theo; Brockmann, Dirk

    2011-08-01

    We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bidirectional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of the model on regular and complex metapopulation network topologies and show that significant dynamical differences exist to ordinary reaction-diffusion and effective force of infection models. On a lattice we calculate an expression for the velocity of the propagating epidemic front and find that, in contrast to the diffusive systems, our model predicts a saturation of the velocity with an increasing traveling rate. Furthermore, we show that a fully stochastic system exhibits a novel threshold for the attack ratio of an outbreak that is absent in diffusion and force of infection models. These insights not only capture natural features of human mobility relevant for the geographical epidemic spread, they may serve as a starting point for modeling important dynamical processes in human and animal epidemiology, population ecology, biology, and evolution.

  15. Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines.

    PubMed

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J

    2008-11-11

    Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines

  16. Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines

    PubMed Central

    Rohr, Jason R.; Raffel, Thomas R.; Romansic, John M.; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J.

    2008-01-01

    Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines

  17. Control of the deliberate spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus.

    PubMed

    Farsang, Attila; Frentzel, Hendrik; Kulcsár, Gábor; Soós, Tibor

    2013-09-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most feared of transboundary animal diseases. Accidental or deliberate release of the causative agent can have both direct and indirect effects that result in massive economic losses and disruption. The direct effects of an FMD outbreak include immediate losses to agricultural production and disruption of local economies, while the indirect effects are mainly related to disease control measures such as restriction of market access at local and global levels and the high costs of disease control. To improve the capacity of the European Union (EU) to counter animal bioterrorism threats, AniBioThreat was launched with a special focus on threats to living animals, feed, and food of animal origin. As part of this project, several zoonotic or animal pathogenic agents are considered from different perspectives. FMD virus was selected as one agent to be scrutinized because it is highly contagious and an outbreak can have a severe economic impact. Ways to fight a deliberate outbreak can be demonstrated through the example of FMD. In this article, the virology and epidemiology of FMD virus are discussed with special attention to the related law enforcement aspects. PMID:23971796

  18. Simulation of between-farm transmission of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in Ontario, Canada using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model.

    PubMed

    Thakur, Krishna K; Revie, Crawford W; Hurnik, Daniel; Poljak, Zvonimir; Sanchez, Javier

    2015-03-01

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), a viral disease of swine, has major economic impacts on the swine industry. The North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) is a spatial, stochastic, farm level state-transition modeling framework originally developed to simulate highly contagious and foreign livestock diseases. The objectives of this study were to develop a model to simulate between-farm spread of a homologous strain of PRRS virus in Ontario swine farms via direct (animal movement) and indirect (sharing of trucks between farms) contacts using the NAADSM and to compare the patterns and extent of outbreak under different simulated conditions. A total of 2552 swine farms in Ontario province were allocated to each census division of Ontario and geo-locations of the farms were randomly generated within the agriculture land of each Census Division. Contact rates among different production types were obtained using pig movement information from four regions in Canada. A total of 24 scenarios were developed involving various direct (movement of infected animals) and indirect (pig transportation trucks) contact parameters in combination with alternating the production type of the farm in which the infection was seeded. Outbreaks were simulated for one year with 1000 replications. The median number of farms infected, proportion of farms with multiple outbreaks and time to reach the peak epidemic were used to compare the size, progression and extent of outbreaks. Scenarios involving spread only by direct contact between farms resulted in outbreaks where the median percentage of infected farms ranged from 31.5 to 37% of all farms. In scenarios with both direct and indirect contact, the median percentage of infected farms increased to a range from 41.6 to 48.6%. Furthermore, scenarios with both direct and indirect contact resulted in a 44% increase in median epidemic size when compared to the direct contact scenarios. Incorporation of both animal

  19. Evidence of spread of the emerging infectious disease, finch trichomonosis, by migrating birds.

    PubMed

    Lawson, Becki; Robinson, Robert A; Neimanis, Aleksija; Handeland, Kjell; Isomursu, Marja; Agren, Erik O; Hamnes, Inger S; Tyler, Kevin M; Chantrey, Julian; Hughes, Laura A; Pennycott, Tom W; Simpson, Vic R; John, Shinto K; Peck, Kirsi M; Toms, Mike P; Bennett, Malcolm; Kirkwood, James K; Cunningham, Andrew A

    2011-06-01

    Finch trichomonosis emerged in Great Britain in 2005 and led to epidemic mortality and a significant population decline of greenfinches, Carduelis chloris and chaffinches, Fringilla coelebs, in the central and western counties of England and Wales in the autumn of 2006. In this article, we show continued epidemic spread of the disease with a pronounced shift in geographical distribution towards eastern England in 2007. This was followed by international spread to southern Fennoscandia where cases were confirmed at multiple sites in the summer of 2008. Sequence data of the ITS1/5.8S/ITS2 ribosomal region and part of the small subunit (SSU) rRNA gene showed no variation between the British and Fennoscandian parasite strains of Trichomonas gallinae. Epidemiological and historical ring return data support bird migration as a plausible mechanism for the observed pattern of disease spread, and suggest the chaffinch as the most likely primary vector. This finding is novel since, although intuitive, confirmed disease spread by migratory birds is very rare and, when it has been recognised, this has generally been for diseases caused by viral pathogens. We believe this to be the first documented case of the spread of a protozoal emerging infectious disease by migrating birds. PMID:21935745

  20. Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2009-12-22

    Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. To study the interplay between short-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatiotemporal pattern of a global epidemic we (i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms and (ii) integrate in a worldwide-structured metapopulation epidemic model a timescale-separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large-scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short-range mobility increases, however, the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multiscale framework. PMID:20018697

  1. Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases

    PubMed Central

    Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J.; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2009-01-01

    Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. To study the interplay between short-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatiotemporal pattern of a global epidemic we (i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms and (ii) integrate in a worldwide-structured metapopulation epidemic model a timescale-separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large-scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short-range mobility increases, however, the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multiscale framework. PMID:20018697

  2. Senescence as an adaptation to limit the spread of disease.

    PubMed

    Mitteldorf, Josh; Pepper, John

    2009-09-21

    Aging has the hallmarks of an evolved adaptation. It is controlled by genes that have been conserved over vast evolutionary distances, and most organisms are able to forestall aging in the most challenging of environments. But fundamental theoretical considerations imply that there can be no direct selection for aging. Senescence reduces individual fitness, and any group benefits are weak and widely dispersed over non-relatives. We offer a resolution to this paradox, suggesting a general mechanism by which senescence might have evolved as an adaptation. The proposed benefit is that senescence protects against infectious epidemics by controlling population density and increasing diversity of the host population. This mechanism is, in fact, already well-accepted in another context: it is the Red Queen Hypothesis for the evolution of sex. We illustrate the hypothesis using a spatially explicit agent-based model in which disease transmission is sensitive to population density as well as homogeneity. We find that individual senescence provides crucial population-level advantages, helping to control both these risk factors. Strong population-level advantages to individual senescence can overcome the within-population disadvantage of senescence. We conclude that frequent local extinctions provide a mechanism by which senescence may be selected as a population-level adaptation in its own right, without assuming pleiotropic benefits to the individual. PMID:19481552

  3. Using the gravity model to estimate the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Barrios, José Miguel; Verstraeten, Willem W; Maes, Piet; Aerts, Jean-Marie; Farifteh, Jamshid; Coppin, Pol

    2012-12-01

    The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases. PMID:23202882

  4. Using the Gravity Model to Estimate the Spatial Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Barrios, José Miguel; Verstraeten, Willem W.; Maes, Piet; Aerts, Jean-Marie; Farifteh, Jamshid; Coppin, Pol

    2012-01-01

    The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases. PMID:23202882

  5. An alternate delivery system improves vaccine performance against foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV)

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed animals with severe agricultural and economic implications. One of the most highly infectious and contagious livestock pathogens known, the disease spreads rapidly in naïve populations making it critical to have rapidly ac...

  6. Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia in Tanzania: current status.

    PubMed

    Msami, H M; Ponela-Mlelwa, T; Mtei, B J; Kapaga, A M

    2001-02-01

    CBPP reappeared in Arusha, Northern Tanzania in 1990, having been introduced from Kenya. The disease spread rapidly to Mara region through rustling of sick or infected animals. In November 1992, an unrelated outbreak occurred in Kagera, having spread from Southern Uganda. Up to the end of December 1994, the disease appeared to be confined to Kagera and Arusha. In January 1995, CBPP was observed in Morogoro region, south of the central railway line. Thereafter, the disease spread through western Tanzania. More recently, further disease has occurred in the Southern Highlands and Central regions. The contaminated area now stretches roughly between latitudes 1 degree and 9 degrees S and longitudes 30 degrees and 37 degrees E, with a cattle population of about 10 million. The direct losses incurred as a result of animal mortality, and vaccination campaign and disease surveillance costs have been assessed at over US$11 million. Indirect losses resulting from chronic disease are much more difficult to assess but are believed to be even higher. Control of the disease has been through restricting animal movements and a mass vaccination campaign. Uncontrolled animal movement during transhumance, trade, cattle thefts and vaccination breakthroughs facilitated the spread of the disease. PMID:11234189

  7. Potential Risk of Regional Disease Spread in West Africa through Cross-Border Cattle Trade

    PubMed Central

    Dean, Anna S.; Fournié, Guillaume; Kulo, Abalo E.; Boukaya, G. Aboudou; Schelling, Esther; Bonfoh, Bassirou

    2013-01-01

    Background Transboundary animal movements facilitate the spread of pathogens across large distances. Cross-border cattle trade is of economic and cultural importance in West Africa. This study explores the potential disease risk resulting from large-scale, cross-border cattle trade between Togo, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin, and Nigeria for the first time. Methods and Principal Findings A questionnaire-based survey of livestock movements of 226 cattle traders was conducted in the 9 biggest cattle markets of northern Togo in February-March 2012. More than half of the traders (53.5%) operated in at least one other country. Animal flows were stochastically simulated based on reported movements and the risk of regional disease spread assessed. More than three quarters (79.2%, range: 78.1–80.0%) of cattle flowing into the market system originated from other countries. Through the cattle market system of northern Togo, non-neighbouring countries were connected via potential routes for disease spread. Even for diseases with low transmissibility and low prevalence in a given country, there was a high risk of disease introduction into other countries. Conclusions By stochastically simulating data collected by interviewing cattle traders in northern Togo, this study identifies potential risks for regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade. The findings highlight that surveillance for emerging infectious diseases as well as control activities targeting endemic diseases in West Africa are likely to be ineffective if only conducted at a national level. A regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control is essential. PMID:24130721

  8. Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences.

    PubMed

    Jeger, Mike J; Pautasso, Marco; Holdenrieder, Ottmar; Shaw, Mike W

    2007-01-01

    Networks are ubiquitous in natural, technological and social systems. They are of increasing relevance for improved understanding and control of infectious diseases of plants, animals and humans, given the interconnectedness of today's world. Recent modelling work on disease development in complex networks shows: the relative rapidity of pathogen spread in scale-free compared with random networks, unless there is high local clustering; the theoretical absence of an epidemic threshold in scale-free networks of infinite size, which implies that diseases with low infection rates can spread in them, but the emergence of a threshold when realistic features are added to networks (e.g. finite size, household structure or deactivation of links); and the influence on epidemic dynamics of asymmetrical interactions. Models suggest that control of pathogens spreading in scale-free networks should focus on highly connected individuals rather than on mass random immunization. A growing number of empirical applications of network theory in human medicine and animal disease ecology confirm the potential of the approach, and suggest that network thinking could also benefit plant epidemiology and forest pathology, particularly in human-modified pathosystems linked by commercial transport of plant and disease propagules. Potential consequences for the study and management of plant and tree diseases are discussed. PMID:17388891

  9. What's the Difference Between Infectious and Contagious?

    MedlinePlus

    ... Hot Topics Meningitis Choosing Your Mood Prescription Drug Abuse Healthy School Lunch Planner How Can I Help a Friend Who Cuts? What's the Difference Between Infectious and Contagious? KidsHealth > For Teens > What's ...

  10. Diffusion versus network models as descriptions for the spread of prion diseases in the brain.

    PubMed

    Matthäus, Franziska

    2006-05-01

    In this paper we will discuss different modeling approaches for the spread of prion diseases in the brain. Firstly, we will compare reaction-diffusion models with models of epidemic diseases on networks. The solutions of the resulting reaction-diffusion equations exhibit traveling wave behavior on a one-dimensional domain, and the wave speed can be estimated. The models can be tested for diffusion-driven (Turing) instability, which could present a possible mechanism for the formation of plaques. We also show that the reaction-diffusion systems are capable of reproducing experimental data on prion spread in the mouse visual system. Secondly, we study classical epidemic models on networks, and use these models to study the influence of the network topology on the disease progression. PMID:16219329

  11. A Physically Based Theoretical Model of Spore Deposition for Predicting Spread of Plant Diseases.

    PubMed

    Isard, Scott A; Chamecki, Marcelo

    2016-03-01

    A physically based theory for predicting spore deposition downwind from an area source of inoculum is presented. The modeling framework is based on theories of turbulence dispersion in the atmospheric boundary layer and applies only to spores that escape from plant canopies. A "disease resistance" coefficient is introduced to convert the theoretical spore deposition model into a simple tool for predicting disease spread at the field scale. Results from the model agree well with published measurements of Uromyces phaseoli spore deposition and measurements of wheat leaf rust disease severity. The theoretical model has the advantage over empirical models in that it can be used to assess the influence of source distribution and geometry, spore characteristics, and meteorological conditions on spore deposition and disease spread. The modeling framework is refined to predict the detailed two-dimensional spatial pattern of disease spread from an infection focus. Accounting for the time variations of wind speed and direction in the refined modeling procedure improves predictions, especially near the inoculum source, and enables application of the theoretical modeling framework to field experiment design. PMID:26595112

  12. Understanding the mechanism of interferon-induced protection against foot-and-mouth disease

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) infects cloven-hoofed animals and causes a highly contagious disease that rapidly spreads among many susceptible species. Vaccination with an inactivated whole virus antigen in formulation with adjuvant, or with a replication-defective human adenovirus 5 (Ad5) ab...

  13. 9 CFR 147.27 - Procedures recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. 147.27 Section 147.27 Animals and Animal... recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. (a) The vehicle transporting the insemination crew should be left as far as practical from the turkey pens. (b) The...

  14. 9 CFR 147.27 - Procedures recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. 147.27 Section 147.27 Animals and Animal... recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. (a) The vehicle transporting the insemination crew should be left as far as practical from the turkey pens. (b) The...

  15. 9 CFR 147.27 - Procedures recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. 147.27 Section 147.27 Animals and Animal... recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. (a) The vehicle transporting the insemination crew should be left as far as practical from the turkey pens. (b) The...

  16. 9 CFR 147.27 - Procedures recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. 147.27 Section 147.27 Animals and Animal... recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. (a) The vehicle transporting the insemination crew should be left as far as practical from the turkey pens. (b) The...

  17. 9 CFR 147.27 - Procedures recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. 147.27 Section 147.27 Animals and Animal... recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. (a) The vehicle transporting the insemination crew should be left as far as practical from the turkey pens. (b) The...

  18. Disease Spread through Animal Movements: A Static and Temporal Network Analysis of Pig Trade in Germany

    PubMed Central

    Lentz, Hartmut H. K.; Koher, Andreas; Hövel, Philipp; Gethmann, Jörn; Sauter-Louis, Carola; Selhorst, Thomas; Conraths, Franz J.

    2016-01-01

    Background Animal trade plays an important role for the spread of infectious diseases in livestock populations. The central question of this work is how infectious diseases can potentially spread via trade in such a livestock population. We address this question by analyzing the underlying network of animal movements. In particular, we consider pig trade in Germany, where trade actors (agricultural premises) form a complex network. Methodology The considered pig trade dataset spans several years and is analyzed with respect to its potential to spread infectious diseases. Focusing on measurements of network-topological properties, we avoid the usage of external parameters, since these properties are independent of specific pathogens. They are on the contrary of great importance for understanding any general spreading process on this particular network. We analyze the system using different network models, which include varying amounts of information: (i) static network, (ii) network as a time series of uncorrelated snapshots, (iii) temporal network, where causality is explicitly taken into account. Findings We find that a static network view captures many relevant aspects of the trade system, and premises can be classified into two clearly defined risk classes. Moreover, our results allow for an efficient allocation strategy for intervention measures using centrality measures. Data on trade volume do barely alter the results and is therefore of secondary importance. Although a static network description yields useful results, the temporal resolution of data plays an outstanding role for an in-depth understanding of spreading processes. This applies in particular for an accurate calculation of the maximum outbreak size. PMID:27152712

  19. Catch the wave: prairie dogs assess neighbours' awareness using contagious displays.

    PubMed

    Hare, James F; Campbell, Kevin L; Senkiw, Robert W

    2014-02-22

    The jump-yip display of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) is contagious, spreading through a prairie dog town as 'the wave' through a stadium. Because contagious communication in primates serves to assess conspecific social awareness, we investigated whether instigators of jump-yip bouts adjusted their behaviour relative to the response of conspecifics recruited to display bouts. Increased responsiveness of neighbouring town members resulted in bout initiators devoting a significantly greater proportion of time to active foraging. Contagious jump-yips thus function to assess neighbours' alertness, soliciting social information to assess effective conspecific group size in real time and reveal active probing of conspecific awareness consistent with theory of mind in these group-living rodents. PMID:24403324

  20. Catch the wave: prairie dogs assess neighbours’ awareness using contagious displays

    PubMed Central

    Hare, James F.; Campbell, Kevin L.; Senkiw, Robert W.

    2014-01-01

    The jump–yip display of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) is contagious, spreading through a prairie dog town as ‘the wave’ through a stadium. Because contagious communication in primates serves to assess conspecific social awareness, we investigated whether instigators of jump–yip bouts adjusted their behaviour relative to the response of conspecifics recruited to display bouts. Increased responsiveness of neighbouring town members resulted in bout initiators devoting a significantly greater proportion of time to active foraging. Contagious jump–yips thus function to assess neighbours’ alertness, soliciting social information to assess effective conspecific group size in real time and reveal active probing of conspecific awareness consistent with theory of mind in these group-living rodents. PMID:24403324

  1. Adults' Explanations and Children's Understanding of Contagious Illnesses, Non-Contagious Illnesses, and Injuries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toyama, Noriko

    2016-01-01

    The present study examined (1) whether children notice different causes for contagious illnesses, non-contagious illnesses, and injuries and (2) what information adults provide to children and to what extent this information is related to children's causal awareness. Studies 1 and 2 explored preschool teachers' and mothers' explanations of…

  2. Impact of Network Activity on the Spread of Infectious Diseases through the German Pig Trade Network

    PubMed Central

    Lebl, Karin; Lentz, Hartmut H. K.; Pinior, Beate; Selhorst, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The trade of livestock is an important and growing economic sector, but it is also a major factor in the spread of diseases. The spreading of diseases in a trade network is likely to be influenced by how often existing trade connections are active. The activity α is defined as the mean frequency of occurrences of existing trade links, thus 0 < α ≤ 1. The observed German pig trade network had an activity of α = 0.11, thus each existing trade connection between two farms was, on average, active at about 10% of the time during the observation period 2008–2009. The aim of this study is to analyze how changes in the activity level of the German pig trade network influence the probability of disease outbreaks, size, and duration of epidemics for different disease transmission probabilities. Thus, we want to investigate the question, whether it makes a difference for a hypothetical spread of an animal disease to transport many animals at the same time or few animals at many times. A SIR model was used to simulate the spread of a disease within the German pig trade network. Our results show that for transmission probabilities <1, the outbreak probability increases in the case of a decreased frequency of animal transports, peaking range of α from 0.05 to 0.1. However, for the final outbreak size, we find that a threshold exists such that finite outbreaks occur only above a critical value of α, which is ~0.1, and therefore in proximity of the observed activity level. Thus, although the outbreak probability increased when decreasing α, these outbreaks affect only a small number of farms. The duration of the epidemic peaks at an activity level in the range of α = 0.2–0.3. Additionally, the results of our simulations show that even small changes in the activity level of the German pig trade network would have dramatic effects on outbreak probability, outbreak size, and epidemic duration. Thus, we can conclude and recommend that the network activity

  3. Chronic Wasting Disease

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Richards, Bryan

    2007-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an always-fatal, neurological illness occurring in North American cervids (members of the deer family), including white-tailed deer, mule deer, elk and moose. Since its discovery in 1967, CWD has spread geographically and increased in prevalence locally. CWD is contagious; it can be transmitted freely within and among free-ranging populations. It is likely that diseased animals can transmit CWD to healthy animals long before they become clinically ill. Managing CWD in free-ranging populations is extremely difficult, therefore preventative measures designed to reduce the chance for disease spread are critically important.

  4. Network analysis of Italian cattle trade patterns and evaluation of risks for potential disease spread.

    PubMed

    Natale, Fabrizio; Giovannini, Armando; Savini, Lara; Palma, Diana; Possenti, Luigi; Fiore, Gianluca; Calistri, Paolo

    2009-12-01

    Livestock movement data represent a valuable source of information to understand the pattern of contacts between premises which may determine the spread of diseases. Social network analysis techniques have been used to analyse the movement patterns of cattle in Italy in 2007. A description of the structure of the Italian cattle industry is presented and the main trade flows and the relations between premises in relation to the potential spread of cattle diseases are investigated. Epidemic simulations have been carried out on the network build out of movement data using a network-based meta-population model. The simulations show the influence of the network structure on the dynamics and size of a hypothetic epidemic and give useful indications on the effects of targeted removal of nodes based on the centrality of premises within the network of animal movements. PMID:19775765

  5. Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Saskatchewan, Canada, 1951-1952.

    PubMed Central

    Daggupaty, S M; Sellers, R F

    1990-01-01

    Farms affected with foot-and-mouth disease during the epidemic in Saskatchewan, in 1951-1952, for which the origin of virus was not known or uncertain, were studied to determine if infection could have been introduced by the airborne route. A short-range Gaussian plume dispersion model was used to estimate the concentration of virus downwind and the dose available for individual animals. The investigation suggested that a large virus source due to infected pigs in a feedlot in January 1952 could have been responsible for airborne dispersion northwestwards downwind to farms up to 20 km distant. Subsequent spread from these farms was to neighboring farms and was influenced by the local topography of a creek. The dispersion model could be used for predicting airborne spread if foot-and-mouth disease should occur. PMID:2174297

  6. Chronic contamination decreases disease spread: a Daphnia–fungus–copper case study

    PubMed Central

    Civitello, David J.; Forys, Philip; Johnson, Adam P.; Hall, Spencer R.

    2012-01-01

    Chemical contamination and disease outbreaks have increased in many ecosystems. However, connecting pollution to disease spread remains difficult, in part, because contaminants can simultaneously exert direct and multi-generational effects on several host and parasite traits. To address these challenges, we parametrized a model using a zooplankton–fungus–copper system. In individual-level assays, we considered three sublethal contamination scenarios: no contamination, single-generation contamination (hosts and parasites exposed only during the assays) and multi-generational contamination (hosts and parasites exposed for several generations prior to and during the assays). Contamination boosted transmission by increasing contact of hosts with parasites. However, it diminished parasite reproduction by reducing the size and lifespan of infected hosts. Multi-generational contamination further reduced parasite reproduction. The parametrized model predicted that a single generation of contamination would enhance disease spread (via enhanced transmission), whereas multi-generational contamination would inhibit epidemics relative to unpolluted conditions (through greatly depressed parasite reproduction). In a population-level experiment, multi-generational contamination reduced the size of experimental epidemics but did not affect Daphnia populations without disease. This result highlights the importance of multi-generational effects for disease dynamics. Such integration of models with experiments can provide predictive power for disease problems in contaminated environments. PMID:22593104

  7. Modelling the spread of sexually transmitted diseases on scale-free networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Mao-Xing; Ruan, Jiong

    2009-06-01

    In this paper a new model for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) is presented. The dynamic behaviors of the model on a heterogenous scale-free (SF) network are considered, where the absence of a threshold on the SF network is demonstrated, and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained. Three immunization strategies, uniform immunization, proportional immunization and targeted immunization, are applied in this model. Analytical and simulated results are given to show that the proportional immunization strategy in the model is effective on SF networks.

  8. Applications of mathematical modeling in managing the spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild deer under alternative harvesting scenarios.

    PubMed

    Al-Arydah, M; Croteau, M C; Oraby, T; Smith, R J; Krewski, D

    2016-01-01

    The application of a recently developed mathematical model for predicting the spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild deer was assessed under different scenarios where harvesting is employed in disease management. A process-based mathematical model for CWD transmission in wild deer populations was recently developed and parameterized by Al-arydah et al. (2011) to provide a scientific basis for understanding the factors that affect spread of CWD and evaluate concomitant disease-control strategies. The impact of gender on CWD transmission was shown to have a significant influence on the spread of the disease in the wild. Our model demonstrates a range of harvesting rates in which CWD is controlled and deer populations survive. However, if harvesting rates are too low, the disease remains endemic for decades. Conversely, the Canadian deer population is eradicated if harvesting rates are excessive. Future investigation includes building the model to assess the spread of CWD under different disease-management scenarios. PMID:27556563

  9. Porcine type I interferon rapidly protects swine against challenge with multiple serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals that rapidly replicates and spreads within infected animals and into the environment. Vaccines require approximately 7 days to induce protection, but prior to this time vaccinated animals are still suscep...

  10. Host mating system and the spread of a disease-resistant allele in a population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeAngelis, D.L.; Koslow, Jennifer M.; Jiang, J.; Ruan, S.

    2008-01-01

    The model presented here modifies a susceptible-infected (SI) host-pathogen model to determine the influence of mating system on the outcome of a host-pathogen interaction. Both deterministic and stochastic (individual-based) versions of the model were used. This model considers the potential consequences of varying mating systems on the rate of spread of both the pathogen and resistance alleles within the population. We assumed that a single allele for disease resistance was sufficient to confer complete resistance in an individual, and that both homozygote and heterozygote resistant individuals had the same mean birth and death rates. When disease invaded a population with only an initial small fraction of resistant genes, inbreeding (selfing) tended to increase the probability that the disease would soon be eliminated from a small population rather than become endemic, while outcrossing greatly increased the probability that the population would become extinct due to the disease.

  11. Global warming and the potential spread of vector-borne diseases

    SciTech Connect

    Patz, J.

    1996-12-31

    Climatic factors influence many vector-borne infectious diseases, in addition to demographic, biological, and ecological determinants. The United Nation`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates an unprecedented global rise of 2.0 C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the spread of many serious infectious diseases, including malaria and dengue fever. Global warming would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the mosquito`s geographic range, increasing reproductive and biting rates, and shortening pathogen incubation period. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability and sea level rise could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. A review of this literature, as well as preliminary data from ongoing studies will be presented.

  12. Spreading of Alzheimer’s disease inflammatory signaling through soluble micro-RNA

    PubMed Central

    Lukiw, Walter J.; Alexandrov, Peter N.; Zhao, Yuhai; Hill, James M.; Bhattacharjee, Surjyadipta

    2015-01-01

    Alzheimer’s disease is a progressive, neurodegenerative disorder that develops within the limbic system, spreading radially into anatomically linked brain association areas as the disease progresses. Analysis of temporal-lobe association of neocortex-derived extracellular fluid and cerebrospinal fluid from Alzheimer’s disease patients shows an abundant presence of micro-RNA (miRNA), including the proinflammatory miRNA-146a and miRNA-155. Using a novel and highly sensitive LED-Northern dot-blot focusing technique, we detected the secretion of potentially pathogenic amounts of miRNA-146a and miRNA-155 from stressed human primary neural cells. A conditioned medium containing miRNA-146a and miRNA-155 was found to induce Alzheimer-type gene expression changes in control brain cells. These included downregulation in the expression of an important repressor of the innate immune response, complement factor H (CFH). These effects were neutralized using anti-miRNA strategies. Anti-miRNA-based therapeutics may provide a novel and efficacious treatment to stem the miRNA-mediated spreading of inflammatory signaling involved in Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:22660168

  13. Phlebotomine sandflies and the spreading of leishmaniases and other diseases of public health concern.

    PubMed

    Maroli, M; Feliciangeli, M D; Bichaud, L; Charrel, R N; Gradoni, L

    2013-06-01

    Phlebotomine sandflies transmit pathogens that affect humans and animals worldwide. We review the roles of phlebotomines in the spreading of leishmaniases, sandfly fever, summer meningitis, vesicular stomatitis, Chandipura virus encephalitis and Carrión's disease. Among over 800 species of sandfly recorded, 98 are proven or suspected vectors of human leishmaniases; these include 42 Phlebotomus species in the Old World and 56 Lutzomyia species in the New World (all: Diptera: Psychodidae). Based on incrimination criteria, we provide an updated list of proven or suspected vector species by endemic country where data are available. Increases in sandfly diffusion and density resulting from increases in breeding sites and blood sources, and the interruption of vector control activities contribute to the spreading of leishmaniasis in the settings of human migration, deforestation, urbanization and conflict. In addition, climatic changes can be expected to affect the density and dispersion of sandflies. Phlebovirus infections and diseases are present in large areas of the Old World, especially in the Mediterranean subregion, in which virus diversity has proven to be higher than initially suspected. Vesiculovirus diseases are important to livestock and humans in the southeastern U.S.A. and Latin America, and represent emerging human threats in parts of India. Carrión's disease, formerly restricted to regions of elevated altitude in Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, has shown recent expansion to non-endemic areas of the Amazon basin. PMID:22924419

  14. Duelling timescales of host mixing and disease spread determine invasion of disease in structured populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cross, P.C.; Lloyd-Smith, J. O.; Johnson, P.L.F.; Getz, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    The epidemic potential of a disease is traditionally assessed using the basic reproductive number, R0. However, in populations with social or spatial structure a chronic disease is more likely to invade than an acute disease with the same R0, because it persists longer within each group and allows for more host movement between groups. Acute diseases ‘perceive’ a more structured host population, and it is more important to consider host population structure in analyses of these diseases. The probability of a pandemic does not arise independently from characteristics of either the host or disease, but rather from the interaction of host movement and disease recovery timescales. The R* statistic, a group-level equivalent of R0, is a better indicator of disease invasion in structured populations than the individual-level R0.

  15. Spread of infectious diseases in a hyperbolic reaction-diffusion susceptible-infected-removed model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbera, Elvira; Consolo, Giancarlo; Valenti, Giovanna

    2013-11-01

    A one-dimensional hyperbolic reaction-diffusion model of epidemics is developed to describe the dynamics of diseases spread occurring in an environment where three kinds of individuals mutually interact: the susceptibles, the infectives, and the removed. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted from the infected population to the susceptible one according to a nonlinear convex incidence rate. The model, based upon the framework of extended thermodynamics, removes the unphysical feature of instantaneous diffusive effects, which is typical of parabolic models. Linear stability analyses are performed to study the nature of the equilibrium states against uniform and nonuniform perturbations. Emphasis is given to the occurrence of Hopf and Turing bifurcations, which break the temporal and the spatial symmetry of the system, respectively. The existence of traveling wave solutions connecting two steady states is also discussed. The governing equations are also integrated numerically to validate the analytical results and to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of diseases.

  16. Disinfection of foot-and-mouth disease and African swine fever viruses with citric acid and sodium hypochlorite on birch wood carriers

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Transboundary animal disease viruses such as foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and African swine fever virus (ASFV) are highly contagious and cause severe morbidity and mortality in livestock. Proper disinfection during an outbreak can help prevent virus spread and will shorten the time for contam...

  17. Disease spread models in wild and feral animal populations: application of artificial life models.

    PubMed

    Ward, M P; Laffan, S W; Highfield, L D

    2011-08-01

    The role that wild and feral animal populations might play in the incursion and spread of important transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD), has received less attention than is warranted by the potential impacts. An artificial life model (Sirca) has been used to investigate this issue in studies based on spatially referenced data sets from southern Texas. An incursion of FMD in which either feral pig or deer populations were infected could result in between 698 and 1557 infected cattle and affect an area of between 166 km2 and 455 km2 after a 100-day period. Although outbreak size in deer populations can be predicted bythe size of the local deer population initially infected, the resulting outbreaks in feral pig populations are less predictable. Also, in the case of deer, the size of potential outbreaks might depend on the season when the incursion occurs. The impact of various mitigation strategies on disease spread has also been investigated. The approach used in the studies reviewed here explicitly incorporates the spatial distribution and relationships between animal populations, providing a new framework to explore potential impacts, costs, and control strategies. PMID:21961216

  18. Hitting Is Contagious: Experience and Action Induction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gray, Rob; Beilock, Sian L.

    2011-01-01

    In baseball, it is believed that "hitting is contagious," that is, probability of success increases if the previous few batters get a hit. Could this effect be partially explained by action induction--that is, the tendency to perform an action related to one that has just been observed? A simulation was used to investigate the effect of inducing…

  19. Social modulation of contagious yawning in wolves.

    PubMed

    Romero, Teresa; Ito, Marie; Saito, Atsuko; Hasegawa, Toshikazu

    2014-01-01

    On the basis of observational and experimental evidence, several authors have proposed that contagious yawn is linked to our capacity for empathy, thus presenting a powerful tool to explore the root of empathy in animal evolution. The evidence for the occurrence of contagious yawning and its link to empathy, however, is meagre outside primates and only recently domestic dogs have demonstrated this ability when exposed to human yawns. Since dogs are unusually skillful at reading human communicative behaviors, it is unclear whether this phenomenon is deeply rooted in the evolutionary history of mammals or evolved de novo in dogs as a result of domestication. Here we show that wolves are capable of yawn contagion, suggesting that such ability is a common ancestral trait shared by other mammalian taxa. Furthermore, the strength of the social bond between the model and the subject positively affected the frequency of contagious yawning, suggesting that in wolves the susceptibility of yawn contagion correlates with the level of emotional proximity. Moreover, female wolves showed a shorter reaction time than males when observing yawns of close associates, suggesting that females are more responsive to their social stimuli. These results are consistent with the claim that the mechanism underlying contagious yawning relates to the capacity for empathy and suggests that basic building blocks of empathy might be present in a wide range of species. PMID:25162677

  20. A Hybrid Sensitivity Analysis Approach for Agent-based Disease Spread Models

    SciTech Connect

    Pullum, Laura L; Cui, Xiaohui

    2012-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) have been widely deployed in different fields for studying the collective behavior of large numbers of interacting agents. Of particular interest lately is the application of agent-based and hybrid models to epidemiology, specifically Agent-based Disease Spread Models (ABDSM). Validation (one aspect of the means to achieve dependability) of ABDSM simulation models is extremely important. It ensures that the right model has been built and lends confidence to the use of that model to inform critical decisions. In this report, we describe our preliminary efforts in ABDSM validation by using hybrid model fusion technology.

  1. Sexually transmitted diseases in Ethiopia. Social factors contributing to their spread and implications for developing countries.

    PubMed Central

    Plorde, D S

    1981-01-01

    Sexually transmitted diseases in developing countries are causing concern to those responsible for their control and eradication. To gain a better understanding of the problems involved in a country struggling with development, the economic and psychosocial factors influencing the spread of STD in Ethiopia have been studied. Increased migration and urbanisation and the changing role of women have led to a rise in prostitution. Thus changes in the social structure--particularly in relation to the education and employment of women--and improved medical services are essential for the long-term control of STD. PMID:6895708

  2. A Lagrangian particle model to predict the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, D.; Reiczigel, J.; Rubel, F.

    Airborne spread of bioaerosols in the boundary layer over a complex terrain is simulated using a Lagrangian particle model, and applied to modelling the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. Two case studies are made with study domains located in a hilly region in the northwest of the Styrian capital Graz, the second largest town in Austria. Mountainous terrain as well as inhomogeneous and time varying meteorological conditions prevent from application of so far used Gaussian dispersion models, while the proposed model can handle these realistically. In the model, trajectories of several thousands of particles are computed and the distribution of virus concentration near the ground is calculated. This allows to assess risk of infection areas with respect to animal species of interest, such as cattle, swine or sheep. Meteorological input data like wind field and other variables necessary to compute turbulence were taken from the new pre-operational version of the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model LMK ( Lokal-Modell-Kürzestfrist) running at the German weather service DWD ( Deutscher Wetterdienst). The LMK model provides meteorological parameters with a spatial resolution of about 2.8 km. To account for the spatial resolution of 400 m used by the Lagrangian particle model, the initial wind field is interpolated upon the finer grid by a mass consistent interpolation method. Case studies depict a significant influence of local wind systems on the spread of virus. Higher virus concentrations at the upwind side of the hills and marginal concentrations in the lee are well observable, as well as canalization effects by valleys. The study demonstrates that the Lagrangian particle model is an appropriate tool for risk assessment of airborne spread of virus by taking into account the realistic orographic and meteorological conditions.

  3. MRI anatomy of parametrial extension to better identify local pathways of disease spread in cervical cancer

    PubMed Central

    Valentini, Anna Lia; Gui, Benedetta; Miccò, Maura; Giuliani, Michela; Rodolfino, Elena; Ninivaggi, Valeria; Iacobucci, Marta; Marino, Marzia; Gambacorta, Maria Antonietta; Testa, Antonia Carla; Zannoni, Gian Franco; Bonomo, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    This paper highlights an updated anatomy of parametrial extension with emphasis on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) assessment of disease spread in the parametrium in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer. Pelvic landmarks were identified to assess the anterior and posterior extensions of the parametria, besides the lateral extension, as defined in a previous anatomical study. A series of schematic drawings and MRI images are shown to document the anatomical delineation of disease on MRI, which is crucial not only for correct image-based three-dimensional radiotherapy but also for the surgical oncologist, since neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by radical surgery is emerging in Europe as a valid alternative to standard chemoradiation. PMID:27165471

  4. The Impact of Farmers’ Strategic Behavior on the Spread of Animal Infectious Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Hammitt, James K.; Thomas, Alban; Raboisson, Didier

    2016-01-01

    One of the main strategies to control the spread of infectious animal diseases is the implementation of movement restrictions. This paper shows a loss in efficiency of the movement restriction policy (MRP) when behavioral responses of farmers are taken into account. Incorporating the strategic behavior of farmers in an epidemiologic model reveals that the MRP can trigger premature animal sales by farms at high risk of becoming infected that significantly reduce the efficacy of the policy. The results are validated in a parameterized network via Monte Carlo simulations and measures to mitigate the loss of efficiency of the MRP are discussed. Financial aid to farmers can be justified by public health concerns, not only for equity. This paper contributes to developing an interdisciplinary analytical framework regarding the expansion of infectious diseases combining economic and epidemiologic dimensions. PMID:27300368

  5. Analytical Modelling of the Spread of Disease in Confined and Crowded Spaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goscé, Lara; Barton, David A. W.; Johansson, Anders

    2014-05-01

    Since 1927 and until recently, most models describing the spread of disease have been of compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. Recent models have utilised agent-based models and complex networks to explicitly study heterogeneous interaction patterns, but this leads to an increasing computational complexity. Compartmental models are appealing because of their simplicity, but their parameters, especially the transmission rate, are complex and depend on a number of factors, which makes it hard to predict how a change of a single environmental, demographic, or epidemiological factor will affect the population. Therefore, in this contribution we propose a middle ground, utilising crowd-behaviour research to improve compartmental models in crowded situations. We show how both the rate of infection as well as the walking speed depend on the local crowd density around an infected individual. The combined effect is that the rate of infection at a population scale has an analytically tractable non-linear dependency on crowd density. We model the spread of a hypothetical disease in a corridor and compare our new model with a typical compartmental model, which highlights the regime in which current models may not produce credible results.

  6. Influence of network dynamics on the spread of sexually transmitted diseases

    PubMed Central

    Risau-Gusman, Sebastián

    2012-01-01

    Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account by assuming that the relevant information to study epidemic spread is encoded in the network obtained, by considering numbers of partners accumulated over periods of time roughly proportional to the infectious period of the disease. On the other hand, models explicitly including social dynamics are often too schematic to provide a reasonable representation of a real population, or so detailed that no general conclusions can be drawn from them. Here, we present a model of social dynamics that is general enough so its parameters can be obtained by fitting data from surveys about sexual behaviour, but that can still be studied analytically, using mean-field techniques. This allows us to obtain some general results about epidemic spreading. We show that using accumulated network data to estimate the static epidemic threshold lead to a significant underestimation of that threshold. We also show that, for a dynamic network, the relative epidemic threshold is an increasing function of the infectious period of the disease, implying that the static value is a lower bound to the real threshold. A practical example is given of how to apply the model to the study of a real population. PMID:22112655

  7. Transmission of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer: implications for disease spread and management.

    PubMed

    Jennelle, Christopher S; Henaux, Viviane; Wasserberg, Gideon; Thiagarajan, Bala; Rolley, Robert E; Samuel, Michael D

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations. PMID:24658535

  8. Transmission of Chronic Wasting Disease in Wisconsin White-Tailed Deer: Implications for Disease Spread and Management

    PubMed Central

    Jennelle, Christopher S.; Henaux, Viviane; Wasserberg, Gideon; Thiagarajan, Bala; Rolley, Robert E.; Samuel, Michael D.

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations. PMID:24658535

  9. Genomic insights into a contagious cancer in Tasmanian devils.

    PubMed

    Grueber, Catherine E; Peel, Emma; Gooley, Rebecca; Belov, Katherine

    2015-09-01

    The Tasmanian devil faces extinction due to a contagious cancer. Genetic and genomic technologies revealed that the disease arose in a Schwann cell of a female devil. Instead of dying with the original host, the tumour was passed from animal to animal, slipping under the radar of the immune system. Studying the genomes of the devil and the cancer has driven our understanding of this unique disease. From characterising immune genes and immune responses to studying tumour evolution, we have begun to uncover how a cancer can be 'caught' and are using genomic data to manage an insurance population of disease-free devils for the long-term survival of the species. PMID:26027792

  10. Simulating the spread of malaria using a generic transmission model for mosquito-borne infectious diseases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kon, Cynthia Mui Lian; Labadin, Jane

    2016-06-01

    Malaria is a critical infection caused by parasites which are spread to humans through mosquito bites. Approximately half of the world's population is in peril of getting infected by malaria. Mosquito-borne diseases have a standard behavior where they are transmitted in the same manner, only through vector mosquito. Taking this into account, a generic spatial-temporal model for transmission of multiple mosquito-borne diseases had been formulated. Our interest is to reproduce the actual cases of different mosquito-borne diseases using the generic model and then predict future cases so as to improve control and target measures competently. In this paper, we utilize notified weekly malaria cases in four districts in Sarawak, Malaysia, namely Kapit, Song, Belaga and Marudi. The actual cases for 36 weeks, which is from week 39 in 2012 to week 22 in 2013, are compared with simulations of the generic spatial-temporal transmission mosquito-borne diseases model. We observe that the simulation results display corresponding result to the actual malaria cases in the four districts.

  11. The dynamics of spreading bacterial diseases and ilnesses caused by helminthosis in Adjara Autonomous Republic 2011.

    PubMed

    Lomtatidze, N; Chachnelidze, R; Chkaidze, M

    2013-01-01

    According to the data of past few years it has been determined that the general incidence and the prevalence of the bacterial and helminthosis diseases have increased. Epidemic Supervision has registered a slight increase of such diseases in data of 2011. Taking into consideration this fact, this research is quite important for the region of Adjara. The aim of our research is to study the dynamics of spreading some bacterial and helminthosis diseases in Adjara Autonomous Republic. In particular, the diseases caused by different bacterias of leptospira family - leptospirosis and illnesses caused by helminthosis - ascariasis, enterobiasis and trichocephalosis. according to the reseaches held it has been determined that there have been several cases of leptospirosis registered in Adjara. Specifically, 10 cases in 2008, 6 in 2009, 30 in 2010 and 31 cases in 2011 out of which 10 of the cases where laboratorily claimed. There were cases of ascariasis, enterobiasis and trichocephalosis. According to data, there are 5 times less cases of trichocephalosis than of ascariasis. As for enterobiasis, it's less than ascariasis (the difference is 205 cases). In therms of the aging, all the cases occur more frequently in the group of children below the age of 14. PMID:23388532

  12. Enhanced antiviral activity against foot-and-mouth disease virus by the combination of bovine type 1 and 2 interferons

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is the most contagious pathogen of cloven-hoofed animals including swine and bovines. In emergency control of outbreaks, it is fundamental to develop rapid protection to prevent spread of the infection. It has been shown that inoculation of 10^10 pfu of human aden...

  13. Cellular Changes Induced by Adenovirus Vaccine Vectors Expressing Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Structural and Nonstructural Proteins

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is the most contagious pathogen of cloven-hoofed animals including swine and bovines. The emergency control of outbreaks is dependent on rapid protection and prevention of virus spread. Adenovirus-based FMD subunit vaccines containing the coding region of viral ca...

  14. Enhanced Antiviral Activity Against Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus by the Combination of Bovine Type 1 and 2 Interferons

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is the most contagious pathogen of cloven-hoofed animals including swine and bovines. The emergency control of outbreaks is dependent on rapid protection and prevention of spread of the infection. Human adenovirus type 5 expressing porcine interferon alpha (Ad5-pI...

  15. Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data.

    PubMed

    Dawson, Peter M; Werkman, Marleen; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen; Tildesley, Michael J

    2015-06-01

    'Big-data' epidemic models are being increasingly used to influence government policy to help with control and eradication of infectious diseases. In the case of livestock, detailed movement records have been used to parametrize realistic transmission models. While livestock movement data are readily available in the UK and other countries in the EU, in many countries around the world, such detailed data are not available. By using a comprehensive database of the UK cattle trade network, we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions. It is found that by targeting nodes with the highest number of movements, accurate predictions on the size and spatial spread of epidemics can be made. This work has implications for countries such as the USA, where access to data is limited, and developing countries that may lack the resources to collect a full dataset on livestock movements. PMID:25948687

  16. Avian influenza shedding patterns in waterfowl: implications for surveillance, environmentaltransmission, and disease spread

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Henaux, V.; Samuel, M.D.

    2011-01-01

    Despite the recognized importance of fecal/oral transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via contaminated wetlands, little is known about the length, quantity, or route of AI virus shed by wild waterfowl. We used published laboratory challenge studies to evaluate the length and quantity of low pathogenic (LP) and highly pathogenic (HP) virus shed via oral and cloacal routes by AI-infected ducks and geese, and how these factors might influence AI epidemiology and virus detection. We used survival analysis to estimate the duration of infection(from virus inoculation to the last day virus was shed) and nonlinear models to evaluate temporal patterns in virus shedding. We found higher mean virus titer and longer median infectious period for LPAI-infected ducks (1011.5 days in oral and cloacal swabs) than HPAI-infected ducks(5 days) and geese (7.5 days). Based on the median bird infectious dose, we found that environmental contamination is two times higher for LPAI- than HPAI-infectious ducks, which implies that susceptible birds may have a higher probability of infection during LPAI than HP AIoutbreaks. Less environmental contamination during the course of infection and previously documented shorter environmental persistence for HPAI than LPAI suggest that the environment is a less favorable reservoir for HPAI. The longer infectious period, higher virus titers, and subclinical infections with LPAI viruses favor the spread of these viruses by migratory birds in comparison to HPAI. Given the lack of detection of HPAI viruses through worldwide surveillance,we suggest monitoring for AI should aim at improving our understanding of AI dynamics (inparticular, the role of the environment and immunity) using long-term comprehensive live bird, serologic, and environmental sampling at targeted areas. Our findings on LPAI and HPAIshedding patterns over time provide essential information to parameterize environmental transmission and virus spread in predictive epizootio

  17. A point pattern model of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

    PubMed

    Gerbier, G; Bacro, J N; Pouillot, R; Durand, B; Moutou, F; Chadoeuf, J

    2002-11-29

    The spatial spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is influenced by several sources of spatial heterogeneity: heterogeneity of the exposure to the virus, heterogeneity of the animal density and heterogeneity of the networks formed by the contacts between farms. A discrete space model assuming that farms can be reduced to points is proposed to handle these different factors. The farm-to-farm process of transmission of the infection is studied using point-pattern methodology. Farm management, commercial exchanges, possible airborne transmission, etc. cannot be explicitly taken into account because of lack of data. These latter factors are introduced via surrogate variables such as herd size and distance between farms. The model is built on the calculation of an infectious potential for each farm. This method has been applied to the study of the 1967-1968 FMD epidemic in UK and allowed us to evaluate the spatial variation of the probability of infection during this epidemic. Maximum likelihood estimation has been conducted conditional on the absence of data concerning the farms which were not infected during the epidemic. Model parameters have then been tested using an approximated conditional-likelihood ratio test. In this case study, results and validation are limited by the lack of data, but this model can easily be extended to include other information such as the effect of wind direction and velocity on airborne spread of the virus or the complex interactions between the locations of farms and the herd size. It can also be applied to other diseases where point approximation is convenient. In the context of an increase of animal density in some areas, the model explicitly incorporates the density and known epidemiological characteristics (e.g. incubation period) in the calculation of the probability of FMD infection. Control measures such as vaccination or slaughter can be simply introduced, respectively, as a reduction of the susceptible population or as a

  18. Controlling wildlife fungal disease spread: in vitro efficacy of disinfectants against Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and Mucor amphibiorum.

    PubMed

    Webb, Rebecca; Philips, Annie; Speare, Rick; Connolly, Joanne; Berger, Lee

    2012-06-13

    Chytridiomycosis in amphibians, and mucormycosis in the platypus Ornithorhynchus anatinus and amphibians, are serious fungal diseases affecting these aquatic taxa. In Tasmania, Australia, the fungi that cause these diseases overlap in range along with Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc), an invasive fungal plant pathogen. To identify disinfectants that may be useful to reduce anthropogenic spread of these fungi to uninfected wilderness areas, for example by bush walkers and forestry or fire-fighting operations, we tested 3 disinfectants and a fire-fighting foam against Mucor amphibiorum (Ma) and tested 1 disinfectant and the foam against Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Combining the present study with previous work we found Bd was more susceptible to all 4 chemicals than Ma. Phytoclean, a disinfectant used at 2 to 10% for 30 s to control Pc, killed cultures of Bd at 0.075% and Ma at 5%, when also applied for 30 s. The disinfectant F10sc was not effective against Ma at standard exposures, but previous work shows Bd is killed at 0.03% with a 1 min exposure. Path-X is effective against Bd at 0.001% with a 30 s exposure and killed Ma at 1% with a 5 min exposure. Forexpan S, a foam added to water at 0.1 to 1% to control forest fires, killed Bd but not Ma when used at 1% for 2 min. Therefore, Phytoclean and Path-X have broader efficacy, although Path-X has not been trialled against Pc. Interestingly a positive mating strain of Ma (from a platypus) was more resistant to disinfectants than a negative strain (from a frog). Current protocols against Pc that involve high concentrations (10%) of Phytoclean are likely to reduce spread of pathogenic wildlife fungi, which is important for protecting biodiversity. PMID:22691980

  19. A branching model for the spread of infectious animal diseases in varying environments.

    PubMed

    Trapman, Pieter; Meester, Ronald; Heesterbeek, Hans

    2004-12-01

    This paper is concerned with a stochastic model, describing outbreaks of infectious diseases that have potentially great animal or human health consequences, and which can result in such severe economic losses that immediate sets of measures need to be taken to curb the spread. During an outbreak of such a disease, the environment that the infectious agent experiences is therefore changing due to the subsequent control measures taken. In our model, we introduce a general branching process in a changing (but not random) environment. With this branching process, we estimate the probability of extinction and the expected number of infected individuals for different control measures. We also use this branching process to calculate the generating function of the number of infected individuals at any given moment. The model and methods are designed using important infections of farmed animals, such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza as motivating examples, but have a wider application, for example to emerging human infections that lead to strict quarantine of cases and suspected cases (e.g. SARS) and contact and movement restrictions. PMID:15565446

  20. Representative Contact Diaries for Modeling the Spread of Infectious Diseases in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Yang-chih; Wang, Da-Wei; Chuang, Jen-Hsiang

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies of infectious diseases have attempted to construct more realistic parameters of interpersonal contact patterns from diary-approach surveys. To ensure that such diary-based contact patterns provide accurate baseline data for policy implementation in densely populated Taiwan, we collected contact diaries from a national sample, using 3-stage systematic probability sampling and rigorous in-person interviews. A representative sample of 1,943 contact diaries recorded a total of 24,265 wide-range, face-to-face interpersonal contacts during a 24-hour period. Nearly 70% of the contacts occurred outside of respondents' households. The most active age group was schoolchildren (ages 5–14), who averaged around 16–18 daily contacts, about 2–3 times as many as the least active age groups. We show how such parameters of contact patterns help modify a sophisticated national simulation system that has been used for years to model the spread of pandemic diseases in Taiwan. Based on such actual and representative data that enable researchers to infer findings to the whole population, our analyses aim to facilitate implementing more appropriate and effective strategies for controlling an emerging or pandemic disease infection. PMID:23056193

  1. Predictive modelling of contagious deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

    PubMed

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges "bottom up", as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated-pre- and post-PPCDAM ("Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia")-the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently

  2. Predictive Modelling of Contagious Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges “bottom up”, as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated–pre- and post-PPCDAM (“Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia”)–the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is

  3. Hybridization and the Origin of Contagious Asexuality in Daphnia pulex.

    PubMed

    Xu, Sen; Spitze, Ken; Ackerman, Matthew S; Ye, Zhiqiang; Bright, Lydia; Keith, Nathan; Jackson, Craig E; Shaw, Joseph R; Lynch, Michael

    2015-12-01

    Hybridization plays a potentially important role in the origin of obligate parthenogenesis (OP) in many organisms. However, it remains controversial whether hybridization directly triggers the transition from sexual reproduction to obligate asexuality or a hybrid genetic background enables asexual species to persist. Furthermore, we know little about the specific genetic elements from the divergent, yet still hybridizing lineages responsible for this transition and how these elements are further spread to create other OP lineages. In this study, we address these questions in Daphnia pulex, where cyclically parthenogenetic (CP) and OP lineages coexist. Ancestry estimates and whole-genome association mapping using 32 OP isolates suggest that a complex hybridization history between the parental species D. pulex and D. pulicaria is responsible for the introgression of a set of 647 D. pulicaria single nucleotide polymorphism alleles that show perfect association with OP. Crossing experiments using males of OP lineages and females of CP lineages strongly support a polygenic basis for OP. Single-sperm analyses show that although normal meiotic recombination occurs in the production of haploid sperm by males of OP lineages, a significant proportion of such sperm are polyploid, suggesting that the spread of asexual elements through these males (i.e., contagious asexuality) is much less efficient than previously envisioned. Although the current Daphnia genome annotation does not provide mechanistic insight into the nature of the asexuality-associated alleles, these alleles should be considered as candidates for future investigations on the genetic underpinnings of OP. PMID:26351296

  4. Prion-like propagation of mutant SOD1 misfolding and motor neuron disease spread along neuroanatomical pathways.

    PubMed

    Ayers, Jacob I; Fromholt, Susan E; O'Neal, Veronica M; Diamond, Jeffrey H; Borchelt, David R

    2016-01-01

    A hallmark feature of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is that symptoms appear to spread along neuroanatomical pathways to engulf the motor nervous system, suggesting a propagative toxic entity could be involved in disease pathogenesis. Evidence for such a propagative entity emerged recently in studies using mice that express G85R-SOD1 mutant protein fused to YFP (G85R-SOD1:YFP). Heterozygous G85R-SOD1:YFP transgenic mice do not develop ALS symptoms out to 20 months of age. However, when newborns are injected with spinal homogenates from paralyzed mutant SOD1 mice, the G85R-SOD1:YFP mice develop paralysis as early as 6 months of age. We now demonstrate that injecting spinal homogenates from paralyzed mutant SOD1 mice into the sciatic nerves of adult G85R-SOD1:YFP mice produces a spreading motor neuron disease within 3.0 ± 0.2 months of injection. The formation of G85R-SOD1:YFP inclusion pathology spreads slowly in this model system; first appearing in the ipsilateral DRG, then lumbar spinal cord, before spreading rostrally up to the cervical cord by the time mice develop paralysis. Reactive astrogliosis mirrors the spread of inclusion pathology and motor neuron loss is most severe in lumbar cord. G85R-SOD1:YFP inclusion pathology quickly spreads to discrete neurons in the brainstem and midbrain that are synaptically connected to spinal neurons, suggesting a trans-synaptic propagation of misfolded protein. Taken together, the data presented here describe the first animal model that recapitulates the spreading phenotype observed in patients with ALS, and implicates the propagation of misfolded protein as a potential mechanism for the spreading of motor neuron disease. PMID:26650262

  5. Homogenization, sex, and differential motility predict spread of chronic wasting disease in mule deer in southern Utah.

    PubMed

    Garlick, Martha J; Powell, James A; Hooten, Mevin B; MacFarlane, Leslie R

    2014-08-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an infectious prion disease that affects mule deer, along with other Cervids. It is a slow-developing, fatal disease which is rare in the free-ranging deer population of Utah. We present a sex-structured, spatial model for the spread of CWD over heterogeneous landscapes, incorporating both horizontal and environmental transmission pathways. To connect the local movement of deer to the regional spread of CWD, we use ecological diffusion with motility coefficients estimated from mule deer movement data. Ecological diffusion allows for aggregation of populations in desirable habitats and therefore allows for an interaction between density dependent disease transmission and landscape structure. The major innovation presented is use of homogenization to accelerate simulations of disease spread in southeastern Utah, from the La Sal Mountains near Moab to the Abajo Mountains near Monticello. The homogenized model provides accuracy while maintaining fidelity to small-scale habitat effects on deer distribution, including differential aggregation in land cover types with high residence times, with errors comparable to the order parameter measuring separation of small and large scales ([Formula: see text] in this case). We use the averaged coefficients from the homogenized model to explore asymptotic invasion speed and the impact of current population size on disease spread in southeastern Utah. PMID:23846241

  6. Multivariate analysis of traditional pig management practices and their potential impact on the spread of infectious diseases in Corsica.

    PubMed

    Relun, A; Charrier, F; Trabucco, B; Maestrini, O; Molia, S; Chavernac, D; Grosbois, V; Casabianca, F; Etter, E; Jori, F

    2015-10-01

    Corsica is a French Mediterranean island with traditional extensive pig farming oriented towards the production of high quality cured meat products. The increasing success of these cured products in continental Europe has triggered the development and organisation of an extensive pig farming industry. However, these pig farming practices have seldom been described and analysed to understand the potential risk of introduction and spread of infectious diseases. We conducted a cross-sectional study in Corsica in 2013 to characterise the main pig management practices and to identify groups of farms with similar practices and therefore homogeneous risk of introduction and spread of infectious diseases. We interviewed 68 pig farmers and investigated different farm management practices which could lead to contact between herds, such as trading animals, sharing pastures, feed and reproduction management (direct contacts), slaughtering and carcass waste management, and contacts with people and vehicles (indirect contacts). The practices were described and the farms grouped by multiple factor and hierarchical clustering analyses. Results revealed interesting patterns in the introduction and spread of infectious disease, such as the seasonality of pig production, the potential local spread of diseases in pastures due to the presence of free-ranging boars, carcasses, and animal waste. Multivariate analyses identified four groups of farms with different levels of risk of the spread of infectious disease, illustrating changes in farmers' customs from free-range uncontrolled farming systems to more controlled systems aimed at the production of high quality pork products. These results will be useful to more realistically simulate the spread of infectious diseases among Corsican pig farms and highlight the need for awareness raising campaigns among the stakeholders to reduce risky practices. PMID:26216476

  7. Birth and death of links control disease spreading in empirical contact networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holme, Petter; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2014-05-01

    We investigate what structural aspects of a collection of twelve empirical temporal networks of human contacts are important to disease spreading. We scan the entire parameter spaces of the two canonical models of infectious disease epidemiology--the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) and Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) models. The results from these simulations are compared to reference data where we eliminate structures in the interevent intervals, the time to the first contact in the data, or the time from the last contact to the end of the sampling. The picture we find is that the birth and death of links, and the total number of contacts over a link, are essential to predict outbreaks. On the other hand, the exact times of contacts between the beginning and end, or the interevent interval distribution, do not matter much. In other words, a simplified picture of these empirical data sets that suffices for epidemiological purposes is that links are born, is active with some intensity, and die.

  8. INFECTION WITH FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE VIRUS CAUSES LOSS OF CIRCULATING PLASMACYTOID DENDRITIC CELLS AND ABROGATES THE INTERFERON ALPHA RESPONSE TO TLR AGONISTS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Immune evasion by pathogens is often critical to virulence and spread of the infectious agent. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is considered one of the most contagious infections known yet is very sensitive to both type I and type II interferons (IFN). In many species including swine, plasmacyto...

  9. Avian influenza shedding patterns in waterfowl: implications for surveillance, environmental transmission, and disease spread

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Viviane Henaux; Samuel, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    Despite the recognized importance of fecal/oral transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via contaminated wetlands, little is known about the length, quantity, or route of AI virus shed by wild waterfowl. We used published laboratory challenge studies to evaluate the length and quantity of low pathogenic (LP) and highly pathogenic (HP) virus shed via oral and cloacal routes by AI-infected ducks and geese, and how these factors might influence AI epidemiology and virus detection. We used survival analysis to estimate the duration of infection (from virus inoculation to the last day virus was shed) and nonlinear models to evaluate temporal patterns in virus shedding. We found higher mean virus titer and longer median infectious period for LPAI-infected ducks (10–11.5 days in oral and cloacal swabs) than HPAI-infected ducks (5 days) and geese (7.5 days). Based on the median bird infectious dose, we found that environmental contamination is two times higher for LPAI- than HPAI-infectious ducks, which implies that susceptible birds may have a higher probability of infection during LPAI than HPAI outbreaks. Less environmental contamination during the course of infection and previously documented shorter environmental persistence for HPAI than LPAI suggest that the environment is a less favorable reservoir for HPAI. The longer infectious period, higher virus titers, and subclinical infections with LPAI viruses favor the spread of these viruses by migratory birds in comparison to HPAI. Given the lack of detection of HPAI viruses through worldwide surveillance, we suggest monitoring for AI should aim at improving our understanding of AI dynamics (in particular, the role of the environment and immunity) using long-term comprehensive live bird, serologic, and environmental sampling at targeted areas. Our findings on LPAI and HPAI shedding patterns over time provide essential information to parameterize environmental transmission and virus spread in predictive

  10. The risk of disease to great apes: simulating disease spread in orang-utan (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii) and chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) association networks.

    PubMed

    Carne, Charlotte; Semple, Stuart; Morrogh-Bernard, Helen; Zuberbühler, Klaus; Lehmann, Julia

    2014-01-01

    All great ape species are endangered, and infectious diseases are thought to pose a particular threat to their survival. As great ape species vary substantially in social organisation and gregariousness, there are likely to be differences in susceptibility to disease types and spread. Understanding the relation between social variables and disease is therefore crucial for implementing effective conservation measures. Here, we simulate the transmission of a range of diseases in a population of orang-utans in Sabangau Forest (Central Kalimantan) and a community of chimpanzees in Budongo Forest (Uganda), by systematically varying transmission likelihood and probability of subsequent recovery. Both species have fission-fusion social systems, but differ considerably in their level of gregariousness. We used long-term behavioural data to create networks of association patterns on which the spread of different diseases was simulated. We found that chimpanzees were generally far more susceptible to the spread of diseases than orang-utans. When simulating different diseases that varied widely in their probability of transmission and recovery, it was found that the chimpanzee community was widely and strongly affected, while in orang-utans even highly infectious diseases had limited spread. Furthermore, when comparing the observed association network with a mean-field network (equal contact probability between group members), we found no major difference in simulated disease spread, suggesting that patterns of social bonding in orang-utans are not an important determinant of susceptibility to disease. In chimpanzees, the predicted size of the epidemic was smaller on the actual association network than on the mean-field network, indicating that patterns of social bonding have important effects on susceptibility to disease. We conclude that social networks are a potentially powerful tool to model the risk of disease transmission in great apes, and that chimpanzees are

  11. The Risk of Disease to Great Apes: Simulating Disease Spread in Orang-Utan (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii) and Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) Association Networks

    PubMed Central

    Carne, Charlotte; Semple, Stuart; Morrogh-Bernard, Helen; Zuberbühler, Klaus; Lehmann, Julia

    2014-01-01

    All great ape species are endangered, and infectious diseases are thought to pose a particular threat to their survival. As great ape species vary substantially in social organisation and gregariousness, there are likely to be differences in susceptibility to disease types and spread. Understanding the relation between social variables and disease is therefore crucial for implementing effective conservation measures. Here, we simulate the transmission of a range of diseases in a population of orang-utans in Sabangau Forest (Central Kalimantan) and a community of chimpanzees in Budongo Forest (Uganda), by systematically varying transmission likelihood and probability of subsequent recovery. Both species have fission-fusion social systems, but differ considerably in their level of gregariousness. We used long-term behavioural data to create networks of association patterns on which the spread of different diseases was simulated. We found that chimpanzees were generally far more susceptible to the spread of diseases than orang-utans. When simulating different diseases that varied widely in their probability of transmission and recovery, it was found that the chimpanzee community was widely and strongly affected, while in orang-utans even highly infectious diseases had limited spread. Furthermore, when comparing the observed association network with a mean-field network (equal contact probability between group members), we found no major difference in simulated disease spread, suggesting that patterns of social bonding in orang-utans are not an important determinant of susceptibility to disease. In chimpanzees, the predicted size of the epidemic was smaller on the actual association network than on the mean-field network, indicating that patterns of social bonding have important effects on susceptibility to disease. We conclude that social networks are a potentially powerful tool to model the risk of disease transmission in great apes, and that chimpanzees are

  12. Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China: Patterns of Spread and Transmissibility during 2008-2009

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yu; Feng, Zijian; Yang, Yang; Self, Steve; Gao, Yongjun; Longini, Ira M.; Wakefield, Jon; Zhang, Jing; Wang, Liping; Chen, Xi; Yao, Lena; Stanaway, Jeffrey D.; Wang, Zijun; Yang, Weizhong

    2011-01-01

    Background Large outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) were observed in both 2008 and 2009 in China. Methods Using the national surveillance data since May 2, 2008, epidemiological characteristics of the outbreaks are summarized, and the transmissibility of the disease and the effects of potential risk factors were evaluated via a susceptible-infectious-recovered transmission model. Results Children of 1.0–2.9 years were the most susceptible group to HFMD (odds ratios [OR] > 2.3 as compared to other age groups). Infant cases had the highest incidences of severe disease (ORs > 1.4) and death (ORs > 2.4), as well as the longest delay from symptom onset to diagnosis (2.3 days). Males were more susceptible to HFMD than females (OR=1.56 [95% confidence interval=1.56, 1.57]). An one day delay in diagnosis was associated with increases in the odds of severe disease by 40.3% [38.7%, 41.9%] and in the odds of death by 53.7% [43.6%, 64.5%]. Compared to Coxsackie A16, enterovirus (EV) 71 is more strongly associated with severe disease (OR=15.6 [13.4, 18.1]) and death (OR=40.7 [13.0, 127.3]). The estimated local effective reproductive numbers among prefectures ranged from 1.4 to 1.6 (median=1.4) in spring and stayed below 1.2 in other seasons. A higher risk of transmission was associated with temperatures in the range of 70-80F, higher relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, population density, and the periods in which schools were open. Conclusion HFMD is a moderately transmittable infectious disease, mainly among pre-school children. EV71 was responsible for most severe cases and fatalities. Mixing of asymptomatically infected children in schools might have contributed to the spread of HFMD. Timely diagnosis may be a key to reducing the high mortality rate in infants. PMID:21968769

  13. Uses of serology for the diagnosis of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia.

    PubMed

    Rurangirwa, F R

    1995-09-01

    A serological test involves detection of specific changes, induced by a pathogen, in the properties or actions of serum of an infected host. The test may detect the presence in serum of either antibodies to the pathogen (produced by the host) or antigens (i.e. the infecting agent itself and/or its components). The many serological tests which have been developed for the diagnosis of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) are classified into two groups on the basis of this distinction. To date, no single serological test is able to detect all stages of the disease. Thus the choice of serological test (or combination of tests) will depend on the specific aim of the investigation. Meanwhile, a sensitive, specific and simple 'pen-side' test for the diagnosis of all forms of CBPP is still lacking. PMID:8593394

  14. Harnessing online tools to track-and treat-pediatric illness: new tools are giving researchers, physicians, and child-care centers insight into the spread of disease.

    PubMed

    Grifantini, Kristina

    2015-01-01

    Measles. A strange polio-like paralysis. Ebola. In the last year, the spread of infectious disease has become standard fare for the nightly news. As such diseases grab headlines, child-care providers, families, schools, and public health officials are turning to new ways of understanding and coping with the spread of disease. PMID:25974910

  15. Trichothecene-Genotypes Play a Role in Fusarium Head Blight Disease Spread and Trichothecene Accumulation in Wheat

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In the current study, we evaluated the impact of the observed North American evolutionary shift in the Fusarium graminearum complex on disease spread, kernel damage, and trichothecene accumulation in resistant and susceptible wheat genotypes. Four inocula were prepared using composites of F. gramin...

  16. Identifying spatio-temporal patterns of transboundary disease spread: examples using avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Ward, Michael P.

    2009-01-01

    Characterizing spatio-temporal patterns among epidemics in which the mechanism of spread is uncertain is important for generating disease spread hypotheses, which may in turn inform disease control and prevention strategies. Using a dataset representing three phases of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks in village poultry in Romania, 2005–2006, spatio-temporal patterns were characterized. We first fit a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that quantified changes in the spatio-temporal relative risk for each of the 23 affected counties. We then modeled spatial synchrony in each of the three epidemic phases using non-parametric covariance functions and Thin Plate Spline regression models. We found clear differences in the spatio-temporal patterns among the epidemic phases (local versus regional correlated processes), which may indicate differing spread mechanisms (for example wild bird versus human-mediated). Elucidating these patterns allowed us to postulate that a shift in the primary mechanism of disease spread may have taken place between the second and third phases of this epidemic. Information generated by such analyses could assist affected countries in determining the most appropriate control programs to implement, and to allocate appropriate resources to preventing contact between domestic poultry and wild birds versus enforcing bans on poultry movements and quarantine. The methods used in this study could be applied in many different situations to analyze transboundary disease data in which only location and time of occurrence data are reported. PMID:19210952

  17. The Effects of Media Reports on Disease Spread and Important Public Health Measurements.

    PubMed

    Collinson, Shannon; Khan, Kamran; Heffernan, Jane M

    2015-01-01

    Controlling the spread of influenza to reduce the effects of infection on a population is an important mandate of public health. Mass media reports on an epidemic or pandemic can provide important information to the public, and in turn, can induce positive healthy behaviour practices (i.e., handwashing, social distancing) in the individuals, that will reduce the probability of contracting the disease. Mass media fatigue, however, can dampen these effects. Mathematical models can be used to study the effects of mass media reports on epidemic/pandemic outcomes. In this study we employ a stochastic agent based model to provide a quantification of mass media reports on the variability in important public health measurements. We also include mass media report data compiled by the Global Public Health Intelligence Network, to study the effects of mass media reports in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We find that the report rate and the rate at which individuals relax their healthy behaviours (media fatigue) greatly affect the variability in important public health measurements. When the mass media reporting data is included in the model, two peaks of infection result. PMID:26528909

  18. Cell to cell spreading of misfolded proteins as a therapeutic target in motor neuron disease.

    PubMed

    Pasquali, Livia; Lenzi, Paola; Biagioni, Francesca; Siciliano, Gabriele; Fornai, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    Despite a number of genetic mutations and molecular mechanisms are recognized to participate in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), such a devastating neurological disorder still lacks a substantial cure. The present manuscript rather than a general overview of potential therapeutic approaches focuses on novel research findings detailing novel molecular mechanisms which appear to be promising for developing future ALS therapeutics. A special emphasis is given to the abnormal autophagy status and to those autophagy substrates which aggregate in the form of misfolded proteins. In fact, as reviewed in the first part of the manuscript, altered autophagy pathway is present in most genetic mutations responsible for familial ALS. These mutations impair clearance of autophagy substrates, which determines accumulation of giant altered mitochondria and misfolded proteins. Therefore, a considerable piece of the review is dedicated to unconventional processing of misfolded proteins leading to unconventional protein secretions which may underlie a prionoid cellto- cell spreading of ALS neuropathology. The intimate mechanisms regulating these steps are analyzed in order to comprehend which potential therapeutic targets might be considered in future studies. At the same time, negative findings concerning recent trials are explained in light of novel disease mechanisms. In the final part of the review the replacement therapy with focal stem cells implantation is discussed in relationship with toxic mechanisms operating in the intercellular space of the spinal cord and motor-related areas. PMID:24934358

  19. The Effects of Media Reports on Disease Spread and Important Public Health Measurements

    PubMed Central

    Collinson, Shannon; Khan, Kamran; Heffernan, Jane M.

    2015-01-01

    Controlling the spread of influenza to reduce the effects of infection on a population is an important mandate of public health. Mass media reports on an epidemic or pandemic can provide important information to the public, and in turn, can induce positive healthy behaviour practices (i.e., handwashing, social distancing) in the individuals, that will reduce the probability of contracting the disease. Mass media fatigue, however, can dampen these effects. Mathematical models can be used to study the effects of mass media reports on epidemic/pandemic outcomes. In this study we employ a stochastic agent based model to provide a quantification of mass media reports on the variability in important public health measurements. We also include mass media report data compiled by the Global Public Health Intelligence Network, to study the effects of mass media reports in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We find that the report rate and the rate at which individuals relax their healthy behaviours (media fatigue) greatly affect the variability in important public health measurements. When the mass media reporting data is included in the model, two peaks of infection result. PMID:26528909

  20. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tucker, Compton J.; Yager, Karina; Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

    2011-01-01

    Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to

  1. Pharmacodynamics of Antimicrobials against Mycoplasma mycoides mycoides Small Colony, the Causative Agent of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, John D.; McKellar, Quintin A.; McKeever, Declan J.

    2012-01-01

    Background Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies mycoides Small Colony (MmmSC) is the causative agent of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), a disease of substantial economic importance in sub-Saharan Africa. Failure of vaccination to curtail spread of this disease has led to calls for evaluation of the role of antimicrobials in CBPP control. Three major classes of antimicrobial are effective against mycoplasmas, namely tetracyclines, fluoroquinolones and macrolides. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to determine the effector kinetics of oxytetracycline, danofloxacin and tulathromycin against two MmmSC field strains in artificial medium and adult bovine serum. Methods Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) were determined for oxytetracycline, danofloxacin and tulathromycin against MmmSC strains B237 and Tan8 using a macrodilution technique, and time-kill curves were constructed for various multiples of the MIC over a 24 hour period in artificial medium and serum. Data were fitted to sigmoid Emax models to obtain 24 hour-area under curve/MIC ratios for mycoplasmastasis and, where appropriate, for mycoplasmacidal activity and virtual mycoplasmal elimination. Results Minimum inhibitory concentrations against B237 were 20-fold higher, 2-fold higher and approximately 330-fold lower in serum than in artificial medium for oxytetracycline, danofloxacin and tulathromycin, respectively. Such differences were mirrored in experiments using Tan8. Oxytetracycline was mycoplasmastatic against both strains in both matrices. Danofloxacin elicited mycoplasmacidal activity against B237 and virtual elimination of Tan8; similar maximum antimycoplasmal effects were observed in artificial medium and serum. Tulathromycin effected virtual elimination of B237 but was mycoplasmastatic against Tan8 in artificial medium. However, this drug was mycoplasmastatic against both strains in the more physiologically relevant matrix of serum. Conclusions Oxytetracycline, danofloxacin and

  2. Social Presence Diminishes Contagious Yawning in the Laboratory

    PubMed Central

    Gallup, Andrew; Church, Allyson M.; Miller, Heather; Risko, Evan F.; Kingstone, Alan

    2016-01-01

    Contagious yawning may be a useful measure of social psychological functioning, and thus it is important to evaluate the variables influencing its expression in laboratory settings. Previous research has documented that humans yawn less frequently in crowded environments and when under direct observation, but the impact of social presence on contagious yawning remains unknown. Here we present the first study to systematically alter the degree of social presence experienced by participants in the laboratory to determine its effect on contagious yawning frequency. Our results demonstrate that both implied and actual social presence significantly diminish yawn contagion in comparison to a control condition, indicating a key social component to contagious yawning. These findings provide a framework for pursuing additional research investigating the social factors influencing contagious yawning, while also offering applications for measuring this response in laboratory settings. PMID:27112374

  3. Laboratory generation of new parthenogenetic lineages supports contagious parthenogenesis in Artemia

    PubMed Central

    Amat, Francisco; Hontoria, Francisco; Gómez, Africa

    2014-01-01

    Contagious parthenogenesis—a process involving rare functional males produced by a parthenogenetic lineage which mate with coexisting sexual females resulting in fertile parthenogenetic offspring—is one of the most striking mechanisms responsible for the generation of new parthenogenetic lineages. Populations of the parthenogenetic diploid brine shrimp Artemia produce fully functional males in low proportions. The evolutionary role of these so-called Artemia rare males is, however, unknown. Here we investigate whether new parthenogenetic clones could be obtained in the laboratory by mating these rare males with sexual females. We assessed the survival and sex ratio of the hybrid ovoviviparous offspring from previous crosses between rare males and females from all Asiatic sexual species, carried out cross-mating experiments between F1 hybrid individuals to assess their fertility, and estimated the viability and the reproductive mode of the resulting F2 offspring. Molecular analysis confirmed the parentage of hybrid parthenogenetic F2. Our study documents the first laboratory synthesis of new parthenogenetic lineages in Artemia and supports a model for the contagious spread of parthenogenesis. Our results suggest recessive inheritance but further experiments are required to confirm the likelihood of the contagious parthenogenesis model. PMID:25024909

  4. Modeling the Effect of Herd Immunity and Contagiousness in Mitigating a Smallpox Outbreak.

    PubMed

    Graeden, Ellie; Fielding, Russel; Steinhouse, Kyle E; Rubin, Ilan N

    2015-07-01

    The smallpox antiviral tecovirimat has recently been purchased by the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile. Given significant uncertainty regarding both the contagiousness of smallpox in a contemporary outbreak and the efficiency of a mass vaccination campaign, vaccine prophylaxis alone may be unable to control a smallpox outbreak following a bioterror attack. Here, we present the results of a compartmental epidemiological model that identifies conditions under which tecovirimat is required to curtail the epidemic by exploring how the interaction between contagiousness and prophylaxis coverage of the affected population affects the ability of the public health response to control a large-scale smallpox outbreak. Each parameter value in the model is based on published empirical data. We describe contagiousness parametrically using a novel method of distributing an assumed R-value over the disease course based on the relative rates of daily viral shedding from human and animal studies of cognate orthopoxvirus infections. Our results suggest that vaccination prophylaxis is sufficient to control the outbreak when caused either by a minimally contagious virus or when a very high percentage of the population receives prophylaxis. As vaccination coverage of the affected population decreases below 70%, vaccine prophylaxis alone is progressively less capable of controlling outbreaks, even those caused by a less contagious virus (R0 less than 4). In these scenarios, tecovirimat treatment is required to control the outbreak (total number of cases under an order of magnitude more than the number of initial infections). The first study to determine the relative importance of smallpox prophylaxis and treatment under a range of highly uncertain epidemiological parameters, this work provides public health decision-makers with an evidence-based guide for responding to a large-scale smallpox outbreak. PMID:25480757

  5. Applications of network theory to frustrated spin systems and transitions in models of disease spread

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, Thomas E., Jr.

    This study of network structure and phase transitions focuses on three systems with different dynamical rules: the Ising model with competing ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic interactions on a 2D triangular lattice, the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model on an adaptive small-world network, and the SIR model on the Saramaki-Kaski dynamic small-world network. In the Ising model with competing interactions, we employ a novel network construction using the individual spins as nodes and links occurring between two nodes if their spin-spin correlation function exceeds a set threshold. This construction yields the emergence of multiple networks of correlated fluctuations. In the spin-glass-like phase, we find spatially non-contiguous networks of correlated fluctuations, as had been previously predicted by chaotic renormalization-group trajectory arguments, but not confirmed. In the second part of this thesis we turn to a dynamical process, disease spreading, on an adaptive small-world network. The adaptive nature of the contact network means that the social connections can evolve in time, in response to the current states of the individual nodes, creating a feedback mechanism. Unlike previous work, we introduce a method by which this adaptive rewiring is included while maintaining the underlying community structure. This more realistic method can have significant effects on the final size of an outbreak. We also develop a mean-field theory to verify our simulation results in certain limits based on master equation considerations. The third part of this thesis treats a dynamic small-world network, in order to utilize its computational advantages to study the critical phenomena of the disease-free to epidemic phase transition. We solve the dynamical equations for the predicted critical point, and verify this point via finite size scaling arguments. The associated critical exponents are found in a similar manner, which show this model to be in a new

  6. Individual Variation in Contagious Yawning Susceptibility Is Highly Stable and Largely Unexplained by Empathy or Other Known Factors

    PubMed Central

    Bartholomew, Alex J.; Cirulli, Elizabeth T.

    2014-01-01

    The contagious aspect of yawning is a well-known phenomenon that exhibits variation in the human population. Despite the observed variation, few studies have addressed its intra-individual reliability or the factors modulating differences in the susceptibility of healthy volunteers. Due to its obvious biological basis and impairment in diseases like autism and schizophrenia, a better understanding of this trait could lead to novel insights into these conditions and the general biological functioning of humans. We administered 328 participants a 3-minute yawning video stimulus, a cognitive battery, and a comprehensive questionnaire that included measures of empathy, emotional contagion, circadian energy rhythms, and sleepiness. Individual contagious yawning measurements were found to be highly stable across testing sessions, both in a lab setting and if administered remotely online, confirming that certain healthy individuals are less susceptible to contagious yawns than are others. Additionally, most individuals who failed to contagiously yawn in our study were not simply suppressing their reaction, as they reported not even feeling like yawning in response to the stimulus. In contrast to previous studies indicating that empathy, time of day, or intelligence may influence contagious yawning susceptibility, we found no influence of these variables once accounting for the age of the participant. Participants were less likely to show contagious yawning as their age increased, even when restricting to ages of less than 40 years. However, age was only able to explain 8% of the variability in the contagious yawn response. The vast majority of the variability in this extremely stable trait remained unexplained, suggesting that studies of its inheritance are warranted. PMID:24632594

  7. Clinico-pathological observations on naturally occurring contagious ecthyma in lambs in Saudi Arabia.

    PubMed

    Gameel, A A; Abu Elzein, E M; Housawi, F M; Agib, A; Ibrahim, A O

    1995-01-01

    Typical lesions of contagious ecthyma were diagnosed in lambs four months old and infection has been confirmed by viral isolation and identification. The lambs had lower total serum protein values, haemoglobin concentration, erythrocyte counts and packed cell volume, but higher blood leukocyte counts and increased serum transaminase activity when compared to apparently healthy animals. The disease is believed to be transmitted from newly introduced goats which showed evidence of infection. PMID:8745744

  8. Contagiousness under antiretroviral therapy and stigmatization toward people with HIV.

    PubMed

    Drewes, Jochen; Kleiber, Dieter

    2014-01-01

    Perceived contagiousness is a major dimension underlying HIV-related stigmatization. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can diminish contagiousness by reducing viral load levels in HIV-infected individuals. To test the assumption that reductions in contagiousness can lead to a decrease in stigmatizing reactions, we conducted an experimental online study. A sample of 752 participants (50.9% female) read a short vignette depicting an HIV-positive individual with either a high or a low viral load and were either given or not given information about the association between viral load and contagiousness. Subsequently, participants were asked to rate their willingness to stigmatize this individual by responding to two measures of social and physical distance. Differences between the low and the high viral load information groups and the combined no-information groups (forming a quasi-control group) were analyzed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), controlling for gender and baseline perceptions of contagiousness. The covariates, perceived contagiousness at baseline and gender, were associated with social and physical distancing, but the viral load/information factor was only significant in physical distancing. Planned contrast analyses confirmed that physical distancing in the informed group was lower in the low viral load condition compared to the high viral load condition and to the control group. We thus found evidence for the significant role of perceived contagiousness in the HIV-related stigma and were able to experimentally demonstrate the potential of ART to reduce HIV-related stigmatization by lowering viral load and contagiousness, when these changes are accompanied by a decreased perception of contagiousness. PMID:24779483

  9. Live pig markets in eastern Indonesia: Trader characteristics, biosecurity and implications for disease spread.

    PubMed

    Leslie, Edwina E C; Geong, Maria; Abdurrahman, Muktasam; Ward, Michael P; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L

    2016-03-01

    Classical swine fever has been negatively impacting pig production in Nusa Tenggara Timur province in eastern Indonesia since its introduction in the 1990s, with live market trade contributing to disease spread. To understand market trader knowledge and practices regarding pig management, biosecurity, pig movements and pig health (specifically CSF), a repeated survey was conducted with pig sellers and pig buyers at 9 market sites across West Timor and the islands of Flores and Sumba. A total of 292 sellers and 281 buyers were interviewed in 2009 during two periods (rounds), a high-demand month (September) and a low-demand month (November). Information was collected via questionnaire. The majority of traders were male (sellers: 89%; buyers: 87%) with the highest level of completed education being primary school (sellers: 48%; buyers: 41%). The primary occupation of most respondents was farming: 90% of sellers and 87% of buyers were smallholder pig farmers and tended to sell their own home-raised pigs at market (52%). Pigs were sold for monetary gain either for primary (52%) or extra income (44%). Markets tended to be selected based on a good reputation (62%), a location close to residence (62%) and having the desired pig type (59%). Pig sales through markets were reported to be highest from August to October with 31% of sellers trading pigs at two or more markets. Prices at market were significantly higher on Sumba compared to West Timor and cross-bred pigs were significantly more expensive than indigenous pigs. Understanding of CSF and biosecurity was limited: 85% of sellers and 83% of buyers had no prior knowledge of CSF. Fifty-four percent of sellers reported no use of any biosecurity practices at market. Most respondents (88%) were able to recognise at least one clinical sign of a sick pig. Informal pig movements were also identified: 18% of pig buyers purchased pigs directly from other farmers. This study has provided baseline information on market trader

  10. Coupling multi-agent model and GIS to simulate pine wood nematode disease spread in ZheJiang Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Huaguo; Wang, Lei; Zhang, XiaoLi; Luo, YouQing; Zhao, Liqiong

    2008-10-01

    A coupled method based on multi-agent model, remote sensing and GIS is described to simulate the forest disease spread. The coupled model focuses on the temporal dynamics of the Bursaphelenchus xylophilus population at the landscape scale. Each individual is modeled as an autonomous agent who behaves according to a set of rules including spreading in the landscape, feeding on Pinus massoniana, sheltering in forest edges and dying, constrained by terrain, land cover and other variables. The model parameters are derived from remote sensing data and field measurements. Ten factors, including damage degree of Pinus Massoniana, altitude and slope, are helped to build the transfer rules. The main outputs are the dynamic disease distribution maps and survived pine population. Our method is applied and validated in DingHai distinct, Zhou Shan city of Zhejiang Province. Three Landsat TM images from the year 1991 to 2006 are used for the pine information extraction. The extracted pine distribution map is used to compare with the simulated surviving pine map. The results show that the coupled model can produce reasonable results and be used as a virtual experiment tool. However, it is difficult to simulate the human activities to help or prevent disease spread and the long fly behavior of insect vectors. Therefore, there still exists some difference between the simulated results and the real data. At the next step, those factors will be considered.

  11. Active surveillance of the aquatic environment for potential prediction, prevention and spread of water borne disease: the cholera paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huq, A.; Colwell, R.

    2011-12-01

    Based on results of ecological and epidemiological studies, occurrence and spread of certain diseases are more fully understood. Cholera is a major waterborne disease, that is relatively easily treatable and clearly preventable, yet tens of thousands die each year worldwide. A dose dependent disease, the infectious dose can vary from 103-106, depending on health status of the victim. Historically, cholera has been shown to spread from person to person. Furthermore, the disease is caused predominantly via ingestion of contaminated water and most of the outbreaks that have been recorded worldwide originated in a coastal region. Using appropriate detection methods, Vibrio cholerae can be isolated from samples collected from ponds, rivers, estuaries, and coastal waters globally. The populations of V. cholerae may vary in numbers during different seasons of the year. It is important to have a clear understanding of the distribution of the causative agent in the environment as such information can assist public health officials in taking action to prevent outbreaks of cholera. Thus an effective monitoring program is critical, particularly in light of climate change with temperature extremes more likely to be occurring. Based on a predictive model and results of ground truth data, temperature has been found to be a factor in the increase of V. cholerae in the environment. Correlation was observed with occurrence of cholera and both temperature and salinity. More recent research indicates additional factors need to be considered in predicting cholera epidemics, including the hydrology and disease dynamics.

  12. Contagious agalactia of small ruminants: current knowledge concerning epidemiology, diagnosis and control.

    PubMed

    Bergonier, D; Berthelot, X; Poumarat, F

    1997-12-01

    Contagious agalactia of small ruminants is a syndrome which principally affects the mammary glands, joints and eyes. The main causal agents are Mycoplasma agalactiae in sheep, and M. agalactiae, M. mycoides subsp. mycoides large colony type and M. capricolum subsp. capricolum in goats. In addition, M. putrefaciens can produce a similar clinical picture, particularly in goats. Contagious agalactia occurs on all five continents and is often enzootic. The evolution of the infection tends to be chronic in affected animals and herds. Symptomless shedding of mycoplasmas, mainly in the milk, may persist for a long time. These insidious infections, associated with carriage in the ears of healthy animals, are difficult to diagnose and to control. The main mode of transmission between flocks is related to the sale of carrier animals and contact during transhumance, whereas transmission within a flock occurs through contact, suckling and milking. This review discusses the clinical features, epidemiology, treatment, prevention and control of the disease. PMID:9567311

  13. Experimental evidence of contagious yawning in budgerigars (Melopsittacus undulatus).

    PubMed

    Gallup, Andrew C; Swartwood, Lexington; Militello, Janine; Sackett, Serena

    2015-09-01

    Experimental evidence of contagious yawning has only been documented in four mammalian species. Here, we report the results from two separate experimental studies designed to investigate the presence of contagious yawning in a social parrot, the budgerigar (Melopsittacus undulatus). In Study 1, birds were paired in adjacent cages with and without visual barriers, and the temporal association of yawning was assessed between visual conditions. In Study 2, the same birds were exposed to video stimuli of both conspecific yawns and control behavior, and yawning frequency was compared between conditions. Results from both studies demonstrate that yawning is contagious. To date, this is the first experimental evidence of contagious yawning in a non-mammalian species. We propose that future research could use budgerigars to explore questions related to basic forms of empathic processing. PMID:26012708

  14. HIV and family living. Preventing the spread of HIV and other diseases.

    PubMed

    Sax, P; Weinberger, H

    1995-10-01

    HIV is spread through direct contact with body fluids, such as blood, semen, vaginal fluids, and breast milk. HIV is not spread through everyday contact. People with HIV are not dangerous to the people they live with at home or in the community and with whom they have ordinary, non-sexual contact. Certain precautions should be taken, however, to minimize risk. First, personal items such as razors, toothbrushes or earrings, should not be shared. Latex gloves should be worn by uninfected family members when they may come into contact with bodily fluids, and the family members should always wash their hands with soap and water after touching blood and other fluids, even if gloves have been worn. The person with HIV can be protected by minimizing exposure to food-borne illnesses carried by raw or undercooked meat, eggs or unpasteurized milk; limiting contact with people who have colds, the flu or diarrhea; and avoiding contact with cages or litter boxes of pets. To help clarify sanitary measures, some frequently asked questions are answered. These questions address the safety of sharing food with HIV-infected people; chickenpox infection and emergence of shingles; prevention of CMV infection; toxoplasmosis and cats; spread of M. avium complex (MAC); and the safety of contact between HIV-infected people and infants. PMID:11362833

  15. Influence of vectors' risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity on the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases: the example of Chagas' disease.

    PubMed

    Pelosse, Perrine; Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M; Ginoux, Marine; Rabinovich, Jorge E; Gourbière, Sébastien; Menu, Frédéric

    2013-01-01

    Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas' disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control. PMID:23951018

  16. Influence of Vectors’ Risk-Spreading Strategies and Environmental Stochasticity on the Epidemiology and Evolution of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Example of Chagas’ Disease

    PubMed Central

    Pelosse, Perrine; Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M.; Ginoux, Marine; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Gourbière, Sébastien; Menu, Frédéric

    2013-01-01

    Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas’ disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control. PMID:23951018

  17. Disease spread models to estimate highly uncertain emerging diseases losses for animal agriculture insurance policies: an application to the U.S. farm-raised catfish industry.

    PubMed

    Zagmutt, Francisco J; Sempier, Stephen H; Hanson, Terril R

    2013-10-01

    Emerging diseases (ED) can have devastating effects on agriculture. Consequently, agricultural insurance for ED can develop if basic insurability criteria are met, including the capability to estimate the severity of ED outbreaks with associated uncertainty. The U.S. farm-raised channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) industry was used to evaluate the feasibility of using a disease spread simulation modeling framework to estimate the potential losses from new ED for agricultural insurance purposes. Two stochastic models were used to simulate the spread of ED between and within channel catfish ponds in Mississippi (MS) under high, medium, and low disease impact scenarios. The mean (95% prediction interval (PI)) proportion of ponds infected within disease-impacted farms was 7.6% (3.8%, 22.8%), 24.5% (3.8%, 72.0%), and 45.6% (4.0%, 92.3%), and the mean (95% PI) proportion of fish mortalities in ponds affected by the disease was 9.8% (1.4%, 26.7%), 49.2% (4.7%, 60.7%), and 88.3% (85.9%, 90.5%) for the low, medium, and high impact scenarios, respectively. The farm-level mortality losses from an ED were up to 40.3% of the total farm inventory and can be used for insurance premium rate development. Disease spread modeling provides a systematic way to organize the current knowledge on the ED perils and, ultimately, use this information to help develop actuarially sound agricultural insurance policies and premiums. However, the estimates obtained will include a large amount of uncertainty driven by the stochastic nature of disease outbreaks, by the uncertainty in the frequency of future ED occurrences, and by the often sparse data available from past outbreaks. PMID:23560798

  18. Hitting is contagious: experience and action induction.

    PubMed

    Gray, Rob; Beilock, Sian L

    2011-03-01

    In baseball, it is believed that "hitting is contagious," that is, probability of success increases if the previous few batters get a hit. Could this effect be partially explained by action induction--that is, the tendency to perform an action related to one that has just been observed? A simulation was used to investigate the effect of inducing stimuli on batting performance for more-experienced (ME) and less-experienced (LE) baseball players. Three types of inducing stimuli were compared with a no-induction condition: action (a simulated ball traveling from home plate into left, right, or center field), outcome (a ball resting in either left, right, or center field), and verbal (the word "left", "center", or "right"). For both ME and LE players, fewer pitchers were required for a successful hit in the action condition. For ME players, there was a significant relationship between the inducing stimulus direction and hit direction for both the action and outcome prompts. For LE players, the prompt only had a significant effect on batting performance in the action condition, and the magnitude of the effect was significantly smaller than for ME. The effect of the inducing stimulus decreased as the delay (i.e., no. of pitches between prompt and hit) increased, with the effect being eliminated after roughly 4 pitches for ME and 2 pitches for LE. It is proposed that the differences in the magnitude and time course of action induction as a function of experience occurred because ME have more well-developed perceptual-motor representations for directional hitting. PMID:21443380

  19. Genetic diversity and mutation of avian paramyxovirus serotype 1 (Newcastle disease virus) in wild birds and evidence for intercontinental spread

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ramey, Andy M.; Reeves, Andrew B.; Ogawa, Haruko; Ip, Hon S.; Imai, Kunitoshi; Bui, V. N.; Yamaguchi, Emi; Silko, N. Y.; Afonso, C.L.

    2013-01-01

    Avian paramyxovirus serotype 1 (APMV-1), or Newcastle disease virus, is the causative agent of Newcastle disease, one of the most economically important diseases for poultry production worldwide and a cause of periodic epizootics in wild birds in North America. In this study, we examined the genetic diversity of APMV-1 isolated from migratory birds sampled in Alaska, Japan, and Russia and assessed the evidence for intercontinental virus spread using phylogenetic methods. Additionally, we predicted viral virulence using deduced amino acid residues for the fusion protein cleavage site and estimated mutation rates for the fusion gene of class I and class II migratory bird isolates. All 73 isolates sequenced as part of this study were most closely related to virus genotypes previously reported for wild birds; however, five class II genotype I isolates formed a monophyletic clade exhibiting previously unreported genetic diversity, which met criteria for the designation of a new sub-genotype. Phylogenetic analysis of wild-bird isolates provided evidence for intercontinental virus spread, specifically viral lineages of APMV-1 class II genotype I sub-genotypes Ib and Ic. This result supports migratory bird movement as a possible mechanism for the redistribution of APMV-1. None of the predicted deduced amino acid motifs for the fusion protein cleavage site of APMV-1 strains isolated from migratory birds in Alaska, Japan, and Russia were consistent with those of previously identified virulent viruses. These data therefore provide no support for these strains contributing to the emergence of avian pathogens. The estimated mutation rates for fusion genes of class I and class II wild-bird isolates were faster than those reported previously for non-virulent APMV-1 strains. Collectively, these findings provide new insight into the diversity, spread, and evolution of APMV-1 in wild birds.

  20. A tale of two tumours: comparison of the immune escape strategies of contagious cancers.

    PubMed

    Siddle, Hannah V; Kaufman, Jim

    2013-09-01

    The adaptive immune system should prevent cancer cells passing from one individual to another, in much the same way that it protects against pathogens. However, in rare cases cancer cells do not die within a single individual, but successfully pass between individuals, escaping the adaptive immune response and becoming a contagious cancer. There are two naturally occurring contagious cancers, Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), found in Tasmanian devils, and Canine Transmissible Venereal Tumour (CTVT), found in dogs. Despite sharing an ability to pass as allografts, these cancers have a very different impact on their hosts. While DFTD causes 100% mortality among infected devils and has had a devastating impact on the devil population, CTVT co-exists with its host in a manner that does not usually cause death of the dog. Although immune evasion strategies for CTVT have been defined, why DFTD is not rejected as an allograft is not understood. We have made progress in revealing mechanisms of immune evasion for DFTD both in vitro and in vivo, and here we compare how DFTD and CTVT interact with their respective hosts and avoid rejection. Our findings highlight factors that may be important for the evolution of contagious cancers and cancer more generally. Perhaps most importantly, this work has opened up important areas for future research, including the effect of epigenetic factors on immune escape mechanisms and the basis of a vaccine strategy that may protect Tasmanian devils against DFTD. PMID:23200636

  1. Occurrence of Stolbur Phytoplasma Disease in Spreading Type Petunia hybrida Cultivars in Korea.

    PubMed

    Chung, Bong Nam; Jeong, Myeong Il; Choi, Seung Kook; Joa, Jae Ho; Choi, Kyeong San; Choi, In Myeong

    2013-12-01

    In January 2012, spreading type petunia cv. Wave Pink plants showing an abnormal growth habit of sprouting unusual multiple plantlets from the lateral buds were collected from a greenhouse in Gwacheon, Gyeonggi Province, Korea. The presence of phytoplasma was investigated using PCR with the primer pairs P1/P6, and R16F1/R1 for nested-PCR. In the nested PCR, 1,096 bp PCR products were obtained, and through sequencing 12 Pet-Stol isolates were identified. Comparison of the nucleotide sequences of 16S rRNA gene of the 12 Pet-Stol isolates with other phytoplasmas belonging to aster yellows or Stolbur showed that Pet-Stol isolates were members of Stolbur. The presence of phytoplasma in petunia was also confirmed by microscopic observation of the pathogens. In this study, Stolbur phytoplasma was identified from spreading type petunia cultivars by sequence analysis of 16S rRNA gene of phytoplasma and microscopic observation of phytoplasma bodies. This is the first report of Stolbur phytoplasma in commercial Petunia hybrida cultivars. PMID:25288978

  2. A Comparison of Dynamics in Two Models for the Spread of a Vector-Borne Disease.

    PubMed

    Graesbøll, K; Sumner, T; Enøe, C; Christiansen, L E; Gubbins, S

    2016-04-01

    In 2007, bluetongue virus (BTV) was introduced to both Denmark (DK) and the United Kingdom (UK). For this reason, simulation models were built to predict scenarios for future incursions. The DK and UK models have a common description of within-herd dynamics, but differ greatly in their descriptions of between-herd spread, one using an explicit representation of vector dispersal, the other a transmission kernel. Here, we compare model predictions for the dynamics of bluetongue in the UK, based on the 2007 incursion and vaccination rollout in 2008. We demonstrate how an agent-based model shows greater sensitivity to the level of vaccine uptake and has lower variability compared with a kernel-based model. However, a model using a transmission kernel requires less detailed data and is often faster. PMID:25056842

  3. An approach for de-identification of point locations of livestock premises for further use in disease spread modeling.

    PubMed

    Martin, Michael K; Helm, Julie; Patyk, Kelly A

    2015-06-15

    We describe a method for de-identifying point location data used for disease spread modeling to allow data custodians to share data with modeling experts without disclosing individual farm identities. The approach is implemented in an open-source software program that is described and evaluated here. The program allows a data custodian to select a level of de-identification based on the K-anonymity statistic. The program converts a file of true farm locations and attributes into a file appropriate for use in disease spread modeling with the locations randomly modified to prevent re-identification based on location. Important epidemiological relationships such as clustering are preserved to as much as possible to allow modeling similar to those using true identifiable data. The software implementation was verified by visual inspection and basic descriptive spatial analysis of the output. Performance is sufficient to allow de-identification of even large data sets on desktop computers available to any data custodian. PMID:25944175

  4. The development of pathogen resistance in Daphnia magna: implications for disease spread in age-structured populations.

    PubMed

    Garbutt, Jennie S; O'Donoghue, Anna J P; McTaggart, Seanna J; Wilson, Philip J; Little, Tom J

    2014-11-01

    Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host-pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen ('priming') persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. PMID:25214486

  5. The development of pathogen resistance in Daphnia magna: implications for disease spread in age-structured populations

    PubMed Central

    Garbutt, Jennie S.; O'Donoghue, Anna J. P.; McTaggart, Seanna J.; Wilson, Philip J.; Little, Tom J.

    2014-01-01

    Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host–pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen (‘priming’) persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. PMID:25214486

  6. Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Herranz, Manuel; Moro, Esteban; Cebrian, Manuel; Christakis, Nicholas A; Fowler, James H

    2014-01-01

    Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global-scale networks. PMID:24718030

  7. Using Friends as Sensors to Detect Global-Scale Contagious Outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Garcia-Herranz, Manuel; Moro, Esteban; Cebrian, Manuel; Christakis, Nicholas A.; Fowler, James H.

    2014-01-01

    Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global–scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global–scale networks. PMID:24718030

  8. 21 CFR 1271.145 - Prevention of the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION HUMAN CELLS, TISSUES, AND CELLULAR AND TISSUE-BASED PRODUCTS Current Good... diseases. You must recover, process, store, label, package, and distribute HCT/Ps, and screen and test...

  9. Intracranial spread of IgG4-related disease via skull base foramina.

    PubMed

    Rice, C M; Spencer, T; Bunea, G; Scolding, N J; Sloan, P; Nath, U

    2016-06-01

    IgG4-related disease (IgG4-RD) is a newly recognised, multiorgan, inflammatory disease, and its full clinical spectrum remains undefined. We present a biopsy-proven case of IgG4-RD presenting with a parapharyngeal mass with intracranial extension and possible involvement of the brain parenchyma. We highlight the importance of considering the diagnosis in those presenting with tumefactive lesions, leptomeningitis or pachymeningitis and emphasise the value of securing a tissue diagnosis so that appropriate long-term treatment can be instigated and complications avoided. PMID:26856357

  10. The French Connection: The First Large Population-Based Contact Survey in France Relevant for the Spread of Infectious Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Béraud, Guillaume; Kazmercziak, Sabine; Beutels, Philippe; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Lenne, Xavier; Mielcarek, Nathalie; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Boëlle, Pierre-Yves; Hens, Niel; Dervaux, Benoit

    2015-01-01

    Background Empirical social contact patterns are essential to understand the spread of infectious diseases. To date, no such data existed for France. Although infectious diseases are frequently seasonal, the temporal variation of contact patterns has not been documented hitherto. Methods COMES-F is the first French large-scale population survey, carried out over 3 different periods (February-March, April, April-May) with some participants common to the first and the last period. Participants described their contacts for 2 consecutive days, and reported separately on professional contacts when typically over 20 per day. Results 2033 participants reported 38 881 contacts (weighted median [first quartile-third quartile]: 8[5–14] per day), and 54 378 contacts with supplementary professional contacts (9[5–17]). Contrary to age, gender, household size, holidays, weekend and occupation, period of the year had little influence on the number of contacts or the mixing patterns. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age, irrespective of the location of the contact, and gender, with women having 8% more contacts than men. Although most contacts occurred at home and at school, the inclusion of professional contacts modified the structure of the mixing patterns. Holidays and weekends reduced dramatically the number of contacts, and as proxies for school closure, reduced R0 by 33% and 28%, respectively. Thus, school closures could have an important impact on the spread of close contact infections in France. Conclusions Despite no clear evidence for temporal variation, trends suggest that more studies are needed. Age and gender were found important determinants of the mixing patterns. Gender differences in mixing patterns might help explain gender differences in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. PMID:26176549

  11. The impact of seasonal variability in wildlife populations on the predicted spread of foot and mouth disease.

    PubMed

    Highfield, Linda D; Ward, Michael P; Laffan, Shawn W; Norby, Bo; Wagner, Gale

    2009-01-01

    Modeling potential disease spread in wildlife populations is important for predicting, responding to and recovering from a foreign animal disease incursion such as foot and mouth disease (FMD). We conducted a series of simulation experiments to determine how seasonal estimates of the spatial distribution of white-tailed deer impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of potential FMD outbreaks. Outbreaks were simulated in a study area comprising two distinct ecoregions in South Texas, USA, using a susceptible-latent-infectious-resistant geographic automata model (Sirca). Seasonal deer distributions were estimated by spatial autoregressive lag models and the normalized difference vegetation index. Significant (P < 0.0001) differences in both the median predicted number of deer infected and number of herds infected were found both between seasons and between ecoregions. Larger outbreaks occurred in winter within the higher deer-density ecoregion, whereas larger outbreaks occurred in summer and fall within the lower deer-density ecoregion. Results of this simulation study suggest that the outcome of an FMD incursion in a population of wildlife would depend on the density of the population infected and when during the year the incursion occurs. It is likely that such effects would be seen for FMD incursions in other regions and countries, and for other diseases, in cases in which a potential wildlife reservoir exists. Study findings indicate that the design of a mitigation strategy needs to take into account population and seasonal characteristics. PMID:19134466

  12. The impact of seasonal variability in wildlife populations on the predicted spread of foot and mouth disease

    PubMed Central

    Highfield, Linda D.; Ward, Michael P.; Laffan, Shawn W.; Norby, Bo; Wagner, Gale

    2009-01-01

    Modeling potential disease spread in wildlife populations is important for predicting, responding to and recovering from a foreign animal disease incursion such as foot and mouth disease (FMD). We conducted a series of simulation experiments to determine how seasonal estimates of the spatial distribution of white-tailed deer impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of potential FMD outbreaks. Outbreaks were simulated in a study area comprising two distinct ecoregions in South Texas, USA, using a susceptible-latent-infectious-resistant geographic automata model (Sirca). Seasonal deer distributions were estimated by spatial autoregressive lag models and the normalized difference vegetation index. Significant (P < 0.0001) differences in both the median predicted number of deer infected and number of herds infected were found both between seasons and between ecoregions. Larger outbreaks occurred in winter within the higher deer-density ecoregion, whereas larger outbreaks occurred in summer and fall within the lower deer-density ecoregion. Results of this simulation study suggest that the outcome of an FMD incursion in a population of wildlife would depend on the density of the population infected and when during the year the incursion occurs. It is likely that such effects would be seen for FMD incursions in other regions and countries, and for other diseases, in cases in which a potential wildlife reservoir exists. Study findings indicate that the design of a mitigation strategy needs to take into account population and seasonal characteristics. PMID:19134466

  13. Personalized ventilation as a control measure for airborne transmissible disease spread

    PubMed Central

    Pantelic, Jovan; Sze-To, Gin Nam; Tham, Kwok Wai; Chao, Christopher Y. H.; Khoo, Yong Chuan Mike

    2009-01-01

    The protective role of personalized ventilation (PV) against plausible airborne transmissible disease was investigated using cough droplets released from a ‘coughing machine’ simulating the human cough at different distances (1, 1.75 and 3 m) from the PV user. Particle image velocimetry was used to characterize and visualize the interaction between the cough-generated multiphase flow and PV-induced flow in the inhalation zone of the thermal breathing manikin. A dose–response model for unsteady imperfectly mixed environment was used to estimate the reduction in infection risk of two common diseases that can be transmitted by airborne mode. PV was able to both reduce the peak aerosol concentration levels and shorten the exposure time at all the examined injection distances. PV could reduce the infection risks of two diseases, influenza A and tuberculosis, by between 27 and 65 per cent. The protection offered by PV is less effective at a distance of 1.75 m than the other distances, as shown in the risk assessment results, as the PV-generated flow was blown off by the cough-generated flow for the longest time. Results of this study demonstrate the ability of desktop PV to mitigate the infection risk of airborne transmissible disease. PMID:19812074

  14. Personalized ventilation as a control measure for airborne transmissible disease spread.

    PubMed

    Pantelic, Jovan; Sze-To, Gin Nam; Tham, Kwok Wai; Chao, Christopher Y H; Khoo, Yong Chuan Mike

    2009-12-01

    The protective role of personalized ventilation (PV) against plausible airborne transmissible disease was investigated using cough droplets released from a 'coughing machine' simulating the human cough at different distances (1, 1.75 and 3 m) from the PV user. Particle image velocimetry was used to characterize and visualize the interaction between the cough-generated multiphase flow and PV-induced flow in the inhalation zone of the thermal breathing manikin. A dose-response model for unsteady imperfectly mixed environment was used to estimate the reduction in infection risk of two common diseases that can be transmitted by airborne mode. PV was able to both reduce the peak aerosol concentration levels and shorten the exposure time at all the examined injection distances. PV could reduce the infection risks of two diseases, influenza A and tuberculosis, by between 27 and 65 per cent. The protection offered by PV is less effective at a distance of 1.75 m than the other distances, as shown in the risk assessment results, as the PV-generated flow was blown off by the cough-generated flow for the longest time. Results of this study demonstrate the ability of desktop PV to mitigate the infection risk of airborne transmissible disease. PMID:19812074

  15. The African buffalo: a villain for inter-species spread of infectious diseases in southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Michel, Anita L; Bengis, Roy G

    2012-01-01

    The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is a large wild bovid which until recently ranged across all but the driest parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and their local range being limited to about 20 km from surface water. They are of high ecological value due to their important role as bulk feeders in the grazing hierarchy. They also have high economic value, because they are one of the sought after 'Big Five' in the eco-tourism industry. In Africa, buffaloes have been recognised for some time as an important role player in the maintenance and transmission of a variety of economically important livestock diseases at the wildlife and/or livestock interface. These include African strains of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), Corridor disease (theileriosis), bovine tuberculosis and bovine brucellosis. For a number of other diseases of veterinary importance, African buffaloes may also serve as amplifier or incidental host, whereby infection with the causative pathogens may cause severe clinical signs such as death or abortion as in the case of anthrax and Rift Valley fever, or remain mild or subclinical for example heartwater. The long term health implications of most of those infections on the buffalo at a population level is usually limited, and they do not pose a threat on the population's survival. Because of their ability to harbour and transmit important diseases to livestock, their sustainable future in ecotourism, trade and transfrontier conservation projects become complex and costly and reliable diagnostic tools are required to monitor these infections in buffalo populations. PMID:23327373

  16. Spreading of pathology in neurodegenerative diseases: a focus on human studies

    PubMed Central

    Brettschneider, Johannes; Del Tredici, Kelly; Lee, Virginia M.-Y.; Trojanowski, John Q.

    2015-01-01

    The progression of many neurodegenerative diseases is thought to be driven by the template-directed misfolding, seeded aggregation and cell–cell transmission of characteristic disease-related proteins, leading to the sequential dissemination of pathological protein aggregates. Recent evidence strongly suggests that the anatomical connections made by neurons — in addition to the intrinsic characteristics of neurons, such as morphology and gene expression profile — determine whether they are vulnerable to degeneration in these disorders. Notably, this common pathogenic principle opens up opportunities for pursuing novel targets for therapeutic interventions for these neurodegenerative disorders. We review recent evidence that supports the notion of neuron–neuron protein propagation, with a focus on neuropathological and positron emission tomography imaging studies in humans. PMID:25588378

  17. Suboptimal Herd Performance Amplifies the Spread of Infectious Disease in the Cattle Industry

    PubMed Central

    Gates, M. Carolyn; Woolhouse, Mark E. J.

    2014-01-01

    Farms that purchase replacement breeding cattle are at increased risk of introducing many economically important diseases. The objectives of this analysis were to determine whether the total number of replacement breeding cattle purchased by individual farms could be reduced by improving herd performance and to quantify the effects of such reductions on the industry-level transmission dynamics of infectious cattle diseases. Detailed information on the performance and contact patterns of British cattle herds was extracted from the national cattle movement database as a case example. Approximately 69% of beef herds and 59% of dairy herds with an average of at least 20 recorded calvings per year purchased at least one replacement breeding animal. Results from zero-inflated negative binomial regression models revealed that herds with high average ages at first calving, prolonged calving intervals, abnormally high or low culling rates, and high calf mortality rates were generally more likely to be open herds and to purchase greater numbers of replacement breeding cattle. If all herds achieved the same level of performance as the top 20% of herds, the total number of replacement beef and dairy cattle purchased could be reduced by an estimated 34% and 51%, respectively. Although these purchases accounted for only 13% of between-herd contacts in the industry trade network, they were found to have a disproportionately strong influence on disease transmission dynamics. These findings suggest that targeting extension services at herds with suboptimal performance may be an effective strategy for controlling endemic cattle diseases while simultaneously improving industry productivity. PMID:24671129

  18. Intracerebral Borna Disease Virus Infection of Bank Voles Leading to Peripheral Spread and Reverse Transcription of Viral RNA

    PubMed Central

    Kinnunen, Paula Maria; Inkeroinen, Hanna; Ilander, Mette; Kallio, Eva Riikka; Heikkilä, Henna Pauliina; Koskela, Esa; Mappes, Tapio; Palva, Airi; Vaheri, Antti; Kipar, Anja; Vapalahti, Olli

    2011-01-01

    Bornaviruses, which chronically infect many species, can cause severe neurological diseases in some animal species; their association with human neuropsychiatric disorders is, however, debatable. The epidemiology of Borna disease virus (BDV), as for other members of the family Bornaviridae, is largely unknown, although evidence exists for a reservoir in small mammals, for example bank voles (Myodes glareolus). In addition to the current exogenous infections and despite the fact that bornaviruses have an RNA genome, bornavirus sequences integrated into the genomes of several vertebrates millions of years ago. Our hypothesis is that the bank vole, a common wild rodent species in traditional BDV-endemic areas, can serve as a viral host; we therefore explored whether this species can be infected with BDV, and if so, how the virus spreads and whether viral RNA is transcribed into DNA in vivo. We infected neonate bank voles intracerebrally with BDV and euthanized them 2 to 8 weeks post-infection. Specific Ig antibodies were detectable in 41%. Histological evaluation revealed no significant pathological alterations, but BDV RNA and antigen were detectable in all infected brains. Immunohistology demonstrated centrifugal spread throughout the nervous tissue, because viral antigen was widespread in peripheral nerves and ganglia, including the mediastinum, esophagus, and urinary bladder. This was associated with viral shedding in feces, of which 54% were BDV RNA-positive, and urine at 17%. BDV nucleocapsid gene DNA occurred in 66% of the infected voles, and, surprisingly, occasionally also phosphoprotein DNA. Thus, intracerebral BDV infection of bank vole led to systemic infection of the nervous tissue and viral excretion, as well as frequent reverse transcription of the BDV genome, enabling genomic integration. This first experimental bornavirus infection in wild mammals confirms the recent findings regarding bornavirus DNA, and suggests that bank voles are capable of

  19. Intracerebral Borna disease virus infection of bank voles leading to peripheral spread and reverse transcription of viral RNA.

    PubMed

    Kinnunen, Paula Maria; Inkeroinen, Hanna; Ilander, Mette; Kallio, Eva Riikka; Heikkilä, Henna Pauliina; Koskela, Esa; Mappes, Tapio; Palva, Airi; Vaheri, Antti; Kipar, Anja; Vapalahti, Olli

    2011-01-01

    Bornaviruses, which chronically infect many species, can cause severe neurological diseases in some animal species; their association with human neuropsychiatric disorders is, however, debatable. The epidemiology of Borna disease virus (BDV), as for other members of the family Bornaviridae, is largely unknown, although evidence exists for a reservoir in small mammals, for example bank voles (Myodes glareolus). In addition to the current exogenous infections and despite the fact that bornaviruses have an RNA genome, bornavirus sequences integrated into the genomes of several vertebrates millions of years ago. Our hypothesis is that the bank vole, a common wild rodent species in traditional BDV-endemic areas, can serve as a viral host; we therefore explored whether this species can be infected with BDV, and if so, how the virus spreads and whether viral RNA is transcribed into DNA in vivo.We infected neonate bank voles intracerebrally with BDV and euthanized them 2 to 8 weeks post-infection. Specific Ig antibodies were detectable in 41%. Histological evaluation revealed no significant pathological alterations, but BDV RNA and antigen were detectable in all infected brains. Immunohistology demonstrated centrifugal spread throughout the nervous tissue, because viral antigen was widespread in peripheral nerves and ganglia, including the mediastinum, esophagus, and urinary bladder. This was associated with viral shedding in feces, of which 54% were BDV RNA-positive, and urine at 17%. BDV nucleocapsid gene DNA occurred in 66% of the infected voles, and, surprisingly, occasionally also phosphoprotein DNA. Thus, intracerebral BDV infection of bank vole led to systemic infection of the nervous tissue and viral excretion, as well as frequent reverse transcription of the BDV genome, enabling genomic integration. This first experimental bornavirus infection in wild mammals confirms the recent findings regarding bornavirus DNA, and suggests that bank voles are capable of

  20. A review of trends in the distribution of vector-borne diseases: is international trade contributing to their spread?

    PubMed

    de La Rocque, S; Balenghien, T; Halos, L; Dietze, K; Claes, F; Ferrari, G; Guberti, V; Slingenbergh, J

    2011-04-01

    It is difficult to determine the part that international trade has played in the expansion of vector-borne diseases, because of the multitude of factors that affect the transformation of habitats and the interfaces between vectors and hosts. The introduction of pathogens through trade in live animals or products of animal origin, as well as the arrival of arthropod vectors, is probably quite frequent but the establishment of an efficient transmission system that develops into a disease outbreak remains the exception. In this paper, based on well-documented examples, the authors review the ecological and epidemiological characteristics of vector-borne diseases that may have been affected in their spread and change of distribution by international trade. In addition, they provide a detailed analysis of the risks associated with specific trade routes and recent expansions of vector populations. Finally, the authors highlight the importance, as well as the challenges, of preventive surveillance and regulation. The need for improved monitoring of vector populations and a readiness to face unpredictable epidemiological events are also emphasised, since this will require rapid reaction, not least in the regulatory context. PMID:21809758

  1. Flying ticks: anciently evolved associations that constitute a risk of infectious disease spread.

    PubMed

    de la Fuente, José; Estrada-Peña, Agustín; Cabezas-Cruz, Alejandro; Brey, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    Ticks are important vectors of emerging zoonotic diseases affecting human and animal health worldwide. Ticks are often found on wild birds, which have been long recognized as a potential risk factor for dissemination of ticks and tick-borne pathogens (TBP), thus raising societal concerns and prompting research into their biology and ecology. To fully understand the role of birds in disseminating some ticks species and TBP, it is important to consider the evolutionary relationships between birds, ticks and transmitted pathogens. In this paper we reviewed the possible role of birds in the dissemination of TBP as a result of the evolution of host-tick-pathogen associations. Birds are central elements in the ecological networks of ticks, hosts and TBP. The study of host-tick-pathogen associations reveals a prominent role for birds in the dissemination of Borrelia spp. and Anaplasma phagocytophilum, with little contribution to the possible dissemination of other TBP. Birds have played a major role during tick evolution, which explains why they are by far the most important hosts supporting the ecological networks of ticks and several TBP. The immune response of birds to ticks and TBP has been largely overlooked. To implement effective measures for the control of tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to study bird-tick and bird-pathogen molecular interactions including the immune response of birds to tick infestation and pathogen infection. PMID:26467109

  2. Simulation of foot-and-mouth disease spread within an integrated livestock system in Texas, USA.

    PubMed

    Ward, Michael P; Highfield, Linda D; Vongseng, Pailin; Graeme Garner, M

    2009-04-01

    We used a simulation study to assess the impact of an incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus on the livestock industries in an 8-county area of the Panhandle region of Texas, USA. The study was conducted in a high-density livestock area, with an estimated number of cattle on-feed of approximately 1.8 million. We modified an existing stochastic, spatial simulation model to simulate 64 scenarios for planning and decision-making. Our scenarios simulated four different herd types for the index herd (company feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef, backyard) and variations in three mitigation strategies (time-of-detection, vaccine availability, and surveillance during disease control). Under our assumptions about availability of resources to manage an outbreak, median epidemic lengths in the scenarios with commercial feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef and backyard index herd types ranged from 28 to 52, 19 to 39, 18 to 32, and 18 to 36 days, respectively, and the average number of herds depopulated ranged from 4 to 101, 2 to 29, 1 to 15 and 1 to 18, respectively. Early detection of FMD in the index herd had the largest impact on reducing ( approximately 13-21 days) the length of epidemics and the number of herds ( approximately 5-34) depopulated. Although most predicted epidemics lasted only approximately 1-2 months, and <100 herds needed to be depopulated, large outbreaks lasting approximately 8-9 months with up to 230 herds depopulated might occur. PMID:19178967

  3. Brief Report: Does Eye Contact Induce Contagious Yawning in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Senju, Atsushi; Kikuchi, Yukiko; Akechi, Hironori; Hasegawa, Toshikazu; Tojo, Yoshikuni; Osanai, Hiroo

    2009-01-01

    Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) reportedly fail to show contagious yawning, but the mechanism underlying the lack of contagious yawning is still unclear. The current study examined whether instructed fixation on the eyes modulates contagious yawning in ASD. Thirty-one children with ASD, as well as 31 age-matched typically…

  4. Spreading of infectious diseases considering age contact patterns for Latin America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Gomes, Marcelo F. C.; Rossi, Luca; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2013-03-01

    The dynamics of infectious diseases strongly depends on the structure of the social contact patterns among individuals. In order to have an accurate estimate of the impact of epidemic outbreaks and which effective control measures to take, we need an appropriate description of these patterns. A simple way to improve the homogeneous mixing assumption is to introduce age contact patterns. Here we follow the approach of Fumanelli et al (PLoS Computational Biology, 8(9):e1002673, 2012) to estimate the age mixing patterns of virtual populations using highly detailed census data for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Considering age contact matrices for these countries we study the epidemiological relevant quantities and their relation with the sociodemographic data. Our results show that even for the same country the impact of epidemics outbreaks could be very different when we consider age contact matrices. This results can be explained as a result of a change in the average age of the population in the different regions of the countries. This study also provides the first estimates of contact matrices for Latin American countries.

  5. The distribution of parasite strains among hosts affects disease spread in a social insect.

    PubMed

    Ulrich, Yuko; Schmid-Hempel, Paul

    2015-06-01

    Social insects present highly interesting and experimentally amenable systems for the study of disease transmission because they naturally live in dense groups of frequently interacting individuals. Using experimental inoculations of five trypanosomatid strains into groups of its natural host, the bumblebee Bombus terrestris, we investigate the effects of the initial parasite strain distribution across group members on the establishment and transmission success of the different strains to new hosts. For a given number of parasite strains circulating within a host group, transmission to new hosts was increased when the strains were initially inoculated as mixed infections (as opposed to separate single infections), presumably because mixed infections generally favored fast replicating strains. In contrast, separate single infections reduced transmission at least in part through a precedence effect, whereby weak strains appeared to persist by making their host unavailable to superinfection. These results suggest that host groups could benefit from 'compartmentalizing' infections by different parasite strains across different group members, which might be achieved in social insects, for example, by division of labor. PMID:25858120

  6. Changing social contact patterns under tropical weather conditions relevant for the spread of infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Chan, T-C; Fu, Y-C; Hwang, J-S

    2015-01-01

    Weather conditions and social contact patterns provide some clues to understanding year-round influenza epidemics in the tropics. Recent studies suggest that contact patterns may direct influenza transmission in the tropics as critically as the aerosol channel in temperate regions. To examine this argument, we analysed a representative nationwide survey dataset of contact diaries with comprehensive weather data in Taiwan. Methods we used included model-free estimated relative changes in reproduction number, R 0; relative changes in the number of contacts; and model-based estimated relative changes in mean contacts using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Overall, social contact patterns clearly differ by demographics (such as age groups), personal idiosyncrasies (such as personality and happiness), and social institutions (such as the division of weekdays and weekend days). Further, weather conditions also turn out to be closely linked to contact patterns under various circumstances. Fleeting contacts, for example, tend to diminish when it rains hard on weekdays, while physical contacts also decrease during weekend days with heavy rain. Frequent social contacts on weekdays and under good weather conditions, including high temperature and low absolute humidity, all might facilitate the transmission of infectious diseases in tropical regions. PMID:24725605

  7. Heterogeneity in the spread and control of infectious disease: consequences for the elimination of canine rabies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferguson, Elaine A.; Hampson, Katie; Cleaveland, Sarah; Consunji, Ramona; Deray, Raffy; Friar, John; Haydon, Daniel T.; Jimenez, Joji; Pancipane, Marlon; Townsend, Sunny E.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the factors influencing vaccination campaign effectiveness is vital in designing efficient disease elimination programmes. We investigated the importance of spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and human-mediated dog movements for the elimination of endemic canine rabies by mass dog vaccination in Region VI of the Philippines (Western Visayas). Household survey data was used to parameterise a spatially-explicit rabies transmission model with realistic dog movement and vaccination coverage scenarios, assuming a basic reproduction number for rabies drawn from the literature. This showed that heterogeneous vaccination reduces elimination prospects relative to homogeneous vaccination at the same overall level. Had the three vaccination campaigns completed in Region VI in 2010-2012 been homogeneous, they would have eliminated rabies with high probability. However, given the observed heterogeneity, three further campaigns may be required to achieve elimination with probability 0.95. We recommend that heterogeneity be reduced in future campaigns through targeted efforts in low coverage areas, even at the expense of reduced coverage in previously high coverage areas. Reported human-mediated dog movements did not reduce elimination probability, so expending limited resources on restricting dog movements is unnecessary in this endemic setting. Enhanced surveillance will be necessary post-elimination, however, given the reintroduction risk from long-distance dog movements.

  8. Heterogeneity in the spread and control of infectious disease: consequences for the elimination of canine rabies

    PubMed Central

    Ferguson, Elaine A.; Hampson, Katie; Cleaveland, Sarah; Consunji, Ramona; Deray, Raffy; Friar, John; Haydon, Daniel T.; Jimenez, Joji; Pancipane, Marlon; Townsend, Sunny E.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the factors influencing vaccination campaign effectiveness is vital in designing efficient disease elimination programmes. We investigated the importance of spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and human-mediated dog movements for the elimination of endemic canine rabies by mass dog vaccination in Region VI of the Philippines (Western Visayas). Household survey data was used to parameterise a spatially-explicit rabies transmission model with realistic dog movement and vaccination coverage scenarios, assuming a basic reproduction number for rabies drawn from the literature. This showed that heterogeneous vaccination reduces elimination prospects relative to homogeneous vaccination at the same overall level. Had the three vaccination campaigns completed in Region VI in 2010–2012 been homogeneous, they would have eliminated rabies with high probability. However, given the observed heterogeneity, three further campaigns may be required to achieve elimination with probability 0.95. We recommend that heterogeneity be reduced in future campaigns through targeted efforts in low coverage areas, even at the expense of reduced coverage in previously high coverage areas. Reported human-mediated dog movements did not reduce elimination probability, so expending limited resources on restricting dog movements is unnecessary in this endemic setting. Enhanced surveillance will be necessary post-elimination, however, given the reintroduction risk from long-distance dog movements. PMID:26667267

  9. Heterogeneity in the spread and control of infectious disease: consequences for the elimination of canine rabies.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Elaine A; Hampson, Katie; Cleaveland, Sarah; Consunji, Ramona; Deray, Raffy; Friar, John; Haydon, Daniel T; Jimenez, Joji; Pancipane, Marlon; Townsend, Sunny E

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the factors influencing vaccination campaign effectiveness is vital in designing efficient disease elimination programmes. We investigated the importance of spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and human-mediated dog movements for the elimination of endemic canine rabies by mass dog vaccination in Region VI of the Philippines (Western Visayas). Household survey data was used to parameterise a spatially-explicit rabies transmission model with realistic dog movement and vaccination coverage scenarios, assuming a basic reproduction number for rabies drawn from the literature. This showed that heterogeneous vaccination reduces elimination prospects relative to homogeneous vaccination at the same overall level. Had the three vaccination campaigns completed in Region VI in 2010-2012 been homogeneous, they would have eliminated rabies with high probability. However, given the observed heterogeneity, three further campaigns may be required to achieve elimination with probability 0.95. We recommend that heterogeneity be reduced in future campaigns through targeted efforts in low coverage areas, even at the expense of reduced coverage in previously high coverage areas. Reported human-mediated dog movements did not reduce elimination probability, so expending limited resources on restricting dog movements is unnecessary in this endemic setting. Enhanced surveillance will be necessary post-elimination, however, given the reintroduction risk from long-distance dog movements. PMID:26667267

  10. Emerging infectious diseases and pandemic potential: status quo and reducing risk of global spread.

    PubMed

    McCloskey, Brian; Dar, Osman; Zumla, Alimuddin; Heymann, David L

    2014-10-01

    Emerging infectious diseases are an important public health threat and infections with pandemic potential are a major global risk. Although much has been learned from previous events the evidence for mitigating actions is not definitive and pandemic preparedness remains a political and scientific challenge. A need exists to develop trust and effective meaningful collaboration between countries to help with rapid detection of potential pandemic infections and initiate public health actions. This collaboration should be within the framework of the International Health Regulations. Collaboration between countries should be encouraged in a way that acknowledges the benefits that derive from sharing biological material and establishing equitable collaborative research partnerships. The focus of pandemic preparedness should include upstream prevention through better collaboration between human and animal health sciences to enhance capacity to identify potential pathogens before they become serious human threats, and to prevent their emergence where possible. The one-health approach provides a means to develop this and could potentially enhance alignment of global health and trade priorities. PMID:25189351

  11. Crk1/2-dependent signaling is necessary for podocyte foot process spreading in mouse models of glomerular disease

    PubMed Central

    George, Britta; Verma, Rakesh; Soofi, Abdulsalam A.; Garg, Puneet; Zhang, Jidong; Park, Tae-Ju; Giardino, Laura; Ryzhova, Larisa; Johnstone, Duncan B.; Wong, Hetty; Nihalani, Deepak; Salant, David J.; Hanks, Steven K.; Curran, Tom; Rastaldi, Maria Pia; Holzman, Lawrence B.

    2012-01-01

    The morphology of healthy podocyte foot processes is necessary for maintaining the characteristics of the kidney filtration barrier. In most forms of glomerular disease, abnormal filter barrier function results when podocytes undergo foot process spreading and retraction by remodeling their cytoskeletal architecture and intercellular junctions during a process known as effacement. The cell adhesion protein nephrin is necessary for establishing the morphology of the kidney podocyte in development by transducing from the specialized podocyte intercellular junction phosphorylation-mediated signals that regulate cytoskeletal dynamics. The present studies extend our understanding of nephrin function by showing that nephrin activation in cultured podocytes induced actin dynamics necessary for lamellipodial protrusion. This process required a PI3K-, Cas-, and Crk1/2-dependent signaling mechanism distinct from the previously described nephrin-Nck1/2 pathway necessary for assembly and polymerization of actin filaments. Our present findings also support the hypothesis that mechanisms governing lamellipodial protrusion in culture are similar to those used in vivo during foot process effacement in a subset of glomerular diseases. In mice, podocyte-specific deletion of Crk1/2 prevented foot process effacement in one model of podocyte injury and attenuated foot process effacement and associated proteinuria in a delayed fashion in a second model. In humans, focal adhesion kinase and Cas phosphorylation — markers of focal adhesion complex–mediated Crk-dependent signaling — was induced in minimal change disease and membranous nephropathy, but not focal segmental glomerulosclerosis. Together, these observations suggest that activation of a Cas-Crk1/2–dependent complex is necessary for foot process effacement observed in distinct subsets of human glomerular diseases. PMID:22251701

  12. Modeling Mosquito-Borne Disease Spread in U.S. Urbanized Areas: The Case of Dengue in Miami

    PubMed Central

    Robert, Michael A.; Christofferson, Rebecca C.; Silva, Noah J. B.; Vasquez, Chalmers; Mores, Christopher N.; Wearing, Helen J.

    2016-01-01

    Expansion of mosquito-borne pathogens into more temperate regions of the world necessitates tools such as mathematical models for understanding the factors that contribute to the introduction and emergence of a disease in populations naïve to the disease. Often, these models are not developed and analyzed until after a pathogen is detected in a population. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model parameterized with publicly available U.S. Census data for studying the potential for disease spread in Urbanized Areas of the United States. To illustrate the utility of the model, we specifically study the potential for introductions of dengue to lead to autochthonous transmission and outbreaks in a population representative of the Miami Urbanized Area, where introductions of dengue have occurred frequently in recent years. We describe seasonal fluctuations in mosquito populations by fitting a population model to trap data provided by the Miami-Dade Mosquito Control Division. We show that the timing and location of introduced cases could play an important role in determining both the probability that local transmission occurs as well as the total number of cases throughout the entire region following introduction. We show that at low rates of clinical presentation, small outbreaks of dengue could go completely undetected during a season, which may confound mitigation efforts that rely upon detection. We discuss the sensitivity of the model to several critical parameter values that are currently poorly characterized and motivate the collection of additional data to strengthen the predictive power of this and similar models. Finally, we emphasize the utility of the general structure of this model in studying mosquito-borne diseases such as chikungunya and Zika virus in other regions. PMID:27532496

  13. Modeling Mosquito-Borne Disease Spread in U.S. Urbanized Areas: The Case of Dengue in Miami.

    PubMed

    Robert, Michael A; Christofferson, Rebecca C; Silva, Noah J B; Vasquez, Chalmers; Mores, Christopher N; Wearing, Helen J

    2016-01-01

    Expansion of mosquito-borne pathogens into more temperate regions of the world necessitates tools such as mathematical models for understanding the factors that contribute to the introduction and emergence of a disease in populations naïve to the disease. Often, these models are not developed and analyzed until after a pathogen is detected in a population. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model parameterized with publicly available U.S. Census data for studying the potential for disease spread in Urbanized Areas of the United States. To illustrate the utility of the model, we specifically study the potential for introductions of dengue to lead to autochthonous transmission and outbreaks in a population representative of the Miami Urbanized Area, where introductions of dengue have occurred frequently in recent years. We describe seasonal fluctuations in mosquito populations by fitting a population model to trap data provided by the Miami-Dade Mosquito Control Division. We show that the timing and location of introduced cases could play an important role in determining both the probability that local transmission occurs as well as the total number of cases throughout the entire region following introduction. We show that at low rates of clinical presentation, small outbreaks of dengue could go completely undetected during a season, which may confound mitigation efforts that rely upon detection. We discuss the sensitivity of the model to several critical parameter values that are currently poorly characterized and motivate the collection of additional data to strengthen the predictive power of this and similar models. Finally, we emphasize the utility of the general structure of this model in studying mosquito-borne diseases such as chikungunya and Zika virus in other regions. PMID:27532496

  14. Broad and fine-scale genetic analysis of white-tailed deer populations: estimating the relative risk of chronic wasting disease spread

    PubMed Central

    Cullingham, Catherine I; Merrill, Evelyn H; Pybus, Margo J; Bollinger, Trent K; Wilson, Gregory A; Coltman, David W

    2011-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of cervids, similar to sheep scrapie that has only recently been detected in wild populations of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus) in western Canada. Relatively little is known about local transmission dynamics of the disease or the potential for long-distance spread. We analysed the population genetic structure of over 2000 white-tailed deer sampled from Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan using microsatellite profiles and mtDNA sequencing to assess the relative risk of disease spread. There was very little differentiation among subpopulations and a weak trend of increasing differentiation with geographic distance. This suggests that the potential for long-distance disease spread through the dispersal of infected individuals is possible, yet the risk of spread should gradually diminish with distance from infection foci. Within subpopulations, females were more related than expected by chance (R > 0) within a radius of approximately 500 m. Sex-biased philopatry and social interactions among related females may facilitate local disease transmission within social groups. Local herd reduction may therefore be an effective tool for reducing the disease prevalence when implemented at the appropriate spatial scale. PMID:25567957

  15. On the Origin and Spread of the Scab Disease of Apple: Out of Central Asia

    PubMed Central

    Gladieux, Pierre; Zhang, Xiu-Guo; Afoufa-Bastien, Damien; Valdebenito Sanhueza, Rosa-Maria; Sbaghi, Mohamed; Le Cam, Bruno

    2008-01-01

    Background Venturia inaequalis is an ascomycete fungus responsible for apple scab, a disease that has invaded almost all apple growing regions worldwide, with the corresponding adverse effects on apple production. Monitoring and predicting the effectiveness of intervention strategies require knowledge of the origin, introduction pathways, and population biology of pathogen populations. Analysis of the variation of genetic markers using the inferential framework of population genetics offers the potential to retrieve this information. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we present a population genetic analysis of microsatellite variation in 1,273 strains of V. inaequalis representing 28 orchard samples from seven regions in five continents. Analysis of molecular variance revealed that most of the variation (88%) was distributed within localities, which is consistent with extensive historical migrations of the fungus among and within regions. Despite this shallow population structure, clustering analyses partitioned the data set into separate groups corresponding roughly to geography, indicating that each region hosts a distinct population of the fungus. Comparison of the levels of variability among populations, along with coalescent analyses of migration models and estimates of genetic distances, was consistent with a scenario in which the fungus emerged in Central Asia, where apple was domesticated, before its introduction into Europe and, more recently, into other continents with the expansion of apple growing. Across the novel range, levels of variability pointed to multiple introductions and all populations displayed signatures of significant post-introduction increases in population size. Most populations exhibited high genotypic diversity and random association of alleles across loci, indicating recombination both in native and introduced areas. Conclusions/Significance Venturia inaequalis is a model of invasive phytopathogenic fungus that has now reached the

  16. Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Mossong, Joël; Hens, Niel; Jit, Mark; Beutels, Philippe; Auranen, Kari; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Massari, Marco; Salmaso, Stefania; Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia; Wallinga, Jacco; Heijne, Janneke; Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata; Rosinska, Magdalena; Edmunds, W. John

    2008-01-01

    Background Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology. Methods and Findings 7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible. Conclusions To our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies. PMID:18366252

  17. [Health Communication: Preventing the Spread of Ebola Virus Disease in the Portuguese Spoken African Countries--Methodology KISS & KEYWORDS].

    PubMed

    Santiago, Isabel De; Miguel, José Pereira; Antunes, Francisco

    2015-01-01

    In this work, Health Communication is considered as an important discipline in medicine and health sciences for his role as true determinant of health. We highlight their contribution to health promotion and disease prevention. Thus, the Health Communication Plan (PCS): Preventing the spread of Ebola virus disease in the Portuguese Speaking African Countries - KISS & KEYWORDS methodology is a tool that aims to minimize the risk of infection by Ebola virus in the Portuguese Speaking African Countries and also train for a general improvement of health conditions of the local populations. In the PCS design are especially considered the social and cultural contexts of the target populations, especially the customs, traditions and religion. Health Communication is considered as an Essential Function of Public Health and its main is to provide a population-based approach. The target of communication actions are population groups in addition to the individual communication, target-audiences are people without access to the media, in Guinea Bissau, Cape Verde and Sao Tome and Principe. Under the communication plan uses the methodology, models and practices both by media professionals as health. A proximity approach and cultural mediation, previously identified key facts, are defined objectives; outlines to the Plan in concrete and its implementation methodology (target-audience and following intervention, materials to be used and key-messages and partners to mobilize) following the World Health Organisation standards. PMID:26061502

  18. Horse species symposium: contagious equine metritis: an insidious threat to the horse breeding industry in the United States.

    PubMed

    Timoney, P J

    2011-05-01

    Contagious equine metritis (CEM) has given rise to international concern since it was first recognized as a novel venereal disease of equids in 1977 and the etiologic agent was identified as a previously undescribed bacterium, Taylorella equigenitalis. Horse industry concerns over CEM centered on the ease with which this bacterium could be disseminated, the significance of T. equigenitalis as a cause of short-term infertility in the mare, and the existence of the carrier state in the stallion and the mare. The first known outbreak of CEM in the United States was in Kentucky in 1978. The economic impact on the Thoroughbred industry in the state was substantial. Before 2008, additional small-scale outbreaks occurred in Missouri in 1979, Kentucky in 1982, and Wisconsin in 2006, nearly all attributed to the importation of carrier animals. On each occasion, appropriate measures were taken to eliminate the infection, resulting in the United States regaining its CEM-free status. With the exception of the 1978 occurrence in Kentucky, none of the subsequent outbreaks significantly affected the horse industry. That changed dramatically in 2008, however, after the discovery of a Quarter horse stallion in Kentucky that cultured positive. Subsequent investigations turned up 23 carrier stallions and 5 carrier mares belonging to 11 breeds and located in 8 states. Shipment of infective semen and indirect venereal contact in stallion collection centers through the use of contaminated fomites were major factors in the spread of T. equigenitalis. Trace-back investigations of some 1,005 exposed and carrier stallions and mares in 48 states have failed to identify the origin of this latest CEM event. Neither clinical evidence of CEM nor decreased pregnancy rates were reportedly a feature in infected or exposed mares. In light of these findings, there was some question of whether or not the considerable expense incurred in investigating the latest CEM occurrence was warranted. Regaining

  19. Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering.

    PubMed

    Moslonka-Lefebvre, Mathieu; Pautasso, Marco; Jeger, Mike J

    2009-10-01

    Network epidemiology has mainly focused on large-scale complex networks. It is unclear whether findings of these investigations also apply to networks of small size. This knowledge gap is of relevance for many biological applications, including meta-communities, plant-pollinator interactions and the spread of the oomycete pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in networks of plant nurseries. Moreover, many small-size biological networks are inherently asymmetrical and thus cannot be realistically modelled with undirected networks. We modelled disease spread and establishment in directed networks of 100 and 500 nodes at four levels of connectance in six network structures (local, small-world, random, one-way, uncorrelated, and two-way scale-free networks). The model was based on the probability of infection persistence in a node and of infection transmission between connected nodes. Regardless of the size of the network, the epidemic threshold did not depend on the starting node of infection but was negatively related to the correlation coefficient between in- and out-degree for all structures, unless networks were sparsely connected. In this case clustering played a significant role. For small-size scale-free directed networks to have a lower epidemic threshold than other network structures, there needs to be a positive correlation between number of links to and from nodes. When this correlation is negative (one-way scale-free networks), the epidemic threshold for small-size networks can be higher than in non-scale-free networks. Clustering does not necessarily have an influence on the epidemic threshold if connectance is kept constant. Analyses of the influence of the clustering on the epidemic threshold in directed networks can also be spurious if they do not consider simultaneously the effect of the correlation coefficient between in- and out-degree. PMID:19545575

  20. The SIS Model of Epidemic Spreading in a Hierarchical Social Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grabowski, A.; Kosinski, R. A.

    2005-05-01

    The phenomenon of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The SIS model with temporal immunity to a disease and a time of incubation is used. In our model spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions and the mobility of a contemporary community are taken into account. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. The influence of the structure of the social network on typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, is discussed. The probability that endemic state occurs is also calculated. Surprisingly it occurs, that less contagious diseases has greater chance to survive. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated and critical range of vaccinations that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results of numerical calculations are compared with the solutions of the master equation for the spreading process, and good agreement is found.

  1. Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics. PMID:25923411

  2. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics. PMID:25923411

  3. Mycoplasma agalactiae, an Etiological Agent of Contagious Agalactia in Small Ruminants: A Review

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Amit; Rahal, Anu; Verma, Amit Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Mycoplasma agalactiae is one of the causal agents of classical contagious agalactia (CA), a serious, economically important but neglected enzootic disease of small ruminants. It occurs in many parts of the world and most notably in the Mediterranean Basin. Following the infection common complications are septicaemia, mastitis, arthritis, pleurisy, pneumonia, and keratoconjunctivitis. Primary or tentative diagnosis of the organism is based upon clinical signs. Various serological tests, namely, growth precipitation, immunofluorescence, complement fixation test, haemagglutination inhibition, agglutination, immunodiffusion, enzyme immunoassays, immunoelectrophoresis, blotting techniques, and others, are available. Molecular tools seem to be much more sensitive, specific, and faster and help to differentiate various strains. The real-time PCR, multiplex PCR, quantitative PCR, PCR-RFLP, MLST, and gene probes, complementary to segments of chromosomal DNA or 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA), have strengthened the diagnosis of M. agalactiae. Both live attenuated and adjuvant (alum precipitated or saponified) inactivated vaccines are available with greater use of inactivated ones due to lack of side effects. The present review discusses the etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis, and clinical signs of contagious agalactia in small ruminants along with trends and advances in its diagnosis, treatment, vaccination, prevention, and control strategies that will help in countering this disease. PMID:25097796

  4. Connecting human behavior and infectious disease spreading. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Wang et al.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holme, Petter

    2015-12-01

    Vaccination against measles is one of the great success stories of 20th century medicine. In the USA, before the introduction of the vaccine in 1963, three to four million adolescents were infected annually, around 500 died, around 5000 got serious complications (primarily encephalitis, swelling of the brain), and around 50,000 were hospitalized [7]. With the vaccine, measles virtually vanished and by 2000 it was declared extinct from the USA. This was, however, not the end of the story. There is still a small fraction of parents who do not let their children be vaccinated. The reasons vary-fear of side effects, an aversion of exposing children to something "unnatural", and a large number of other ideas. (For a non-academic account of the psychology of vaccination, we recommend Eula Biss's On Immunity[3].) The last few decades, anti-vaccination ideas have been spreading in social media and united people opposing vaccination into something of a movement [4]. In December 2014 there was a first larger outbreak (over 500 cases) of the century, centered around Disneyland (Anaheim, California) [10], and the anti-vaccination movement got much of the blame [4]. This example illustrates how ideas and opinions-that just like diseases are spreading over networks of people-can facilitate outbreaks. The reverse is, thankfully, more common-people, aware of an emerging outbreak, try to lower the chance of contagion by improving hygiene etc., which impedes the outbreak.

  5. [Contagious agalactia of small ruminants: epidemiology, diagnosis and control].

    PubMed

    Bergonier, D; Poumarat, F

    1996-12-01

    Contagious agalactia of small ruminants is a syndrome which affects mainly the mammary glands, joints and eyes. The principal causal agents are Mycoplasma agalactiae in sheep and M. agalactiae, M. mycoides subsp. mycoides large colony type and M. capricolum subsp. capricolum in goats. In addition, M. putrefaciens can produce a similar clinical picture, particularly in goats. Contagious agalactia occurs on all five continents and is often enzootic. These infections are chronic in animals and in flocks. Symptomless shedding of mycoplasmas, mainly in the milk, may persist for a long time. Associated with carriage in the ears of healthy animals, these insidious infections are difficult to diagnose and control. The sale of carrier animals and contact during transhumance are the main modes of transmission between flocks, while transmission within a flock occurs through contact, suckling and milking. This review discusses clinical features, epidemiology, treatment, prevention and control. PMID:9527414

  6. POST-HURRICANE ANALYSIS OF CITRUS CANKER II: PREDICTIVE MODEL ESTIMATION OF DISEASE SPREAD AND AREA POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY VARIOUS ERADICATION PROTOCOLS FOLLOWING CATASTROPHIC WEATHER EVENTS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The affect of 2005 Hurricane Wilma on the dissemination of Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri (Xac), the cause of Asiatic citrus canker (ACC), and subsequent disease development was examined and predictions for the areas into which Xac was likely to have spread from known sources of infection was deve...

  7. Trichophyton mentagrophytes cause underestimated contagious zoophilic fungal infection.

    PubMed

    Czaika, Viktor Alexander; Lam, Phi-Anh

    2013-05-01

    Trichophytia infection, paraphrased cuddly toy mycosis, occurs primarily in prepubertal children, occasionally in infants and adults. The presented case shows the highly contagious infection of four family members with Trichophyton mentagrophytes. Effective treatment requires detailed diagnostic: identifying the dermatophyte, finding the infection source, treating the infection carriers. Tinea must be treated systemically and topically because of infectivity and ignitability. Systemic terbinafine or fluconazole treatment and topical fixed combination isoconazole nitrate/diflucortolone valerate are recommended. PMID:23574024

  8. Histopathological investigation of clinically non-affected perilesional scalp in alopecias detected unexpected spread of disease activities.

    PubMed

    Watanabe-Okada, Emiko; Amagai, Masayuki; Ohyama, Manabu

    2014-09-01

    Histopathological comparison between clinically affected and intact regions in alopecia patients has been considered to facilitate better understanding of the pathophysiology of ongoing disease. Theoretically, adjacent intact regions should provide ideal controls as they should share close histological characteristics, however, to what extent clinically non-affected neighboring regions maintain their pathological integrity has not been fully assessed. The goal of this study is to delineate histopathological characteristics of clinically intact perilesional regions in the patients with various forms of alopecia. Transverse sections of 4-mm punch biopsy at the levels of isthmus and suprabulbar portion were obtained from seemingly unimpaired perilesional scalp of 50 Japanese alopecia patients (16 alopecia areata [AA] multiplex, 19 scarring alopecia [SA], 15 other conditions) and subject to histopathological investigation. Initial screening detected decrease in anagen (anagen : telogen ratio = 82.4:17.6) when compared with previously reported standard hair counts in normal Asian scalp. This finding prompted further investigation. Unexpectedly, 33 (66%) specimens demonstrated some microscopic abnormalities, 10 (62.5%) AA specimens showed increase in telogen ratio, vellus hair count and miniaturization, while perifollicular inflammatory cell infiltration was detected in 5 (26.3%) SA cases. Exclusion of histologically affected specimens yielded average hair count numbers resembling those reported in Koreans, supporting the pathological integrity of selected samples and, more importantly, indicating normal hair counts in east Asians. These findings indicated a less recognized significance of histopathological investigation of clinically non-affected perilesional scalp in alopecias for better assessment of the spread of disease activities, which should enable better management of hair loss conditions. PMID:25156442

  9. Health management of large transhumant animal populations and risk of bluetongue spread to disease-free areas.

    PubMed

    Nannini, D; Calistri, P; Giovannini, A; Di Ventura, M; Cafiero, M A; Ferrari, G; Santucci, U; Caporale, V

    2004-01-01

    was granted to move 28,000 head, whereas prohibition of movement was ordered for 12,000 sheep (belonging to 21 flocks). Regional authorities financed feeding, watering and housing for these animals. Transhumance did not spread infection to disease-free areas either in 2001 or in 2002. PMID:20422619

  10. Population genetic structure of a common host predicts the spread of white-nose syndrome, an emerging infectious disease in bats.

    PubMed

    Wilder, Aryn P; Kunz, Thomas H; Sorenson, Michael D

    2015-11-01

    Landscape complexity influences patterns of animal dispersal, which in turn may affect both gene flow and the spread of pathogens. White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an introduced fungal disease that has spread rapidly throughout eastern North America, causing massive mortality in bat populations. We tested for a relationship between the population genetic structure of the most common host, the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), and the geographic spread of WNS to date by evaluating logistic regression models of WNS risk among hibernating colonies in eastern North America. We hypothesized that risk of WNS to susceptible host colonies should increase with both geographic proximity and genetic similarity, reflecting historical connectivity, to infected colonies. Consistent with this hypothesis, inclusion of genetic distance between infected and susceptible colonies significantly improved models of disease spread, capturing heterogeneity in the spatial expansion of WNS despite low levels of genetic differentiation among eastern populations. Expanding our genetic analysis to the continental range of little brown myotis reveals strongly contrasting patterns of population structure between eastern and western North America. Genetic structure increases markedly moving westward into the northern Great Plains, beyond the current distribution of WNS. In western North America, genetic differentiation of geographically proximate populations often exceeds levels observed across the entire eastern region, suggesting infrequent and/or locally restricted dispersal, and thus relatively limited opportunities for pathogen introduction in western North America. Taken together, our analyses suggest a possibly slower future rate of spread of the WNS pathogen, at least as mediated by little brown myotis. PMID:26407297