Contagious diseases are a threat to animal health and productivity, both nationally and at the farm level. This makes implementation of biosecurity measures to prevent their introduction and spread within countries and farms a necessity. Mastitis is the most common and costly contagious disease affecting dairy farms in the western world. The major mastitis pathogens are endemic in most countries, and biosecurity measures to prevent introduction and transmission must therefore be implemented at farm level. The 40-yr-old mastitis control plan remains a solid foundation to prevent the spread of contagious intramammary infections. Contagious diseases that do not affect the mammary gland directly may have an indirect effect on mastitis. This is true for list A diseases such as foot and mouth disease, for which biosecurity measures may need to be taken at national level, and for other infections with nonmastitis pathogens such as bovine viral diarrhea virus and Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis. Maintaining a closed herd decreases the risk of introduction of pathogens that affect udder health directly or indirectly. If animals are purchased, their udder health history should be evaluated and they should be examined and tested for contagious diseases. Transmission of infections by and to humans and nonbovine animals may occur. Contact with visitors and nonbovine animals should therefore be minimized. Because of globalization and heightened consumer awareness, the importance of biosecurity now supersedes individual farms, and increased pressure to control transmission of contagious diseases can be expected at industry or government levels in western countries and elsewhere.
Barkema, H. W.; Green, M. J.; Bradley, A. J.; Zadoks, R. N.
The paper deals with the issue of how to prevent the spread (in the environment) of pathogens of extra dangerous infections, whose source could be a patients (not isolated in Meltzer box) with a highly contagious disease. Autonomous filtering stretchers of a special design are suggested for the transportation of patients; the design is sufficient to protect the habitat and medical personnel against being contaminated with related microbes and does not affect the physiological-and-hygienic indices of an isolated patient. PMID:15022553
Buianov, V V; Kolesnikov, N V; Malyshev, N A; Suprun, I P
Twenty-first century contagious diseases require more than basic health lessons to prevent transmission. This Digest examines ways to prevent disease transmission in school settings. Section 1 discusses key concepts in contagion education: all people are potentially contagious; germs that cause diseases are present on many parts of the body; hand…
Grosse, Susan J.
Reviews recent court decisions regarding whether individuals with contagious diseases may be barred from public schools. Devotes specific attention to the issue of whether certain communicable diseases such as tuberculosis and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) can be classified as handicaps and thereby qualify a person for protection…
Roe, Richard L.
The belief among Nigerians that epilepsy is infectious is widely reported in the relevant professional literature. This belief, however, has not been subjected to scientific investigation and its magnitude has not been assessed, despite the fact that it is one of the most serious obstacles to the care and rehabilitation of epileptics. The study reported here attempted to provide such information interviewing a wide spectrum of the Nigerian population, including medical students. It was found that most Nigerians, including some medical students, share the belief that epilepsy is contagious. They would therefore not eat, drink, or sleep in the same room with an epileptic, or touch him during his fit. The origin of the belief is now lost in obscurity, but traditional healers seem to be its current respository and propagators. The views of the latter are reinforced and sustained by people fleeing in panic from a patient experiencing a grand mal attack. These findings suggest treatment and rehabilitative strategies. PMID:2612192
Contagious equine metritis is a highly contagious genital infection of mares, spread venereally, and was first described in 1977. Although most contagious equine metritis outbreaks involved Thoroughbreds, infection in other breeds has also occurred. The disease has been reported in Europe, Australia and the United States. In Canada, contagious equine metritis has been designated a reportable disease under the Animal Disease and Protection Act. Contagious equine metritis is characterized by an endometritis and infertility and infected mares show no signs of systemic infection. Clinical signs have not been observed in stallions. An asymptomatic carrier state exists in both mares and stallions. Infected mares respond clinically to the topical and parenteral administration of antibacterial drugs. However, a proportion of mares remain carriers of the contagious equine metritis organism. Treatment of stallions is successful. Haemophilus equigenitalis has been proposed as the species name of the Gram-negative, microaerophilic coccobacillus. Sample collection and laboratory methods for the diagnosis of contagious equine metritis are described.
Eaglesome, M. D.; Garcia, M. M.
This publication presents 10 documents collected to accompany a seminar entitled "What To Do When Contagious Disease Strikes Your School," presented at the 31st annual convention of the National Organization on Legal Problems of Education in 1985. The materials include (1) an agenda of the seminar listing the speakers, their topics, and the time…
American Bar Association, Chicago, IL.
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides small colony type (MmmSC) is a notifiable disease and has to be reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health (Office International des Epizooties, OIE, http://www.oie.int). Despite the fact that the last reported cases in Germany date back to 1926, the risk of introduction through clinically inconspicuous animals from countries where the disease is still endemic is rising. This is due mainly to an increase in international trade of live cattle and the failure to contain CBPP in many parts of Africa and elsewhere. To detect and eliminate this highly contagious infectious disease of the bovine respiratory tract, it is necessary to recognize matching clinical symptoms as soon as possible, as well as to have efficient methods for its detection on hand. In the present paper, we describe clinical manifestations and review state-of-the-art research, as well as currently used detection methods. PMID:17341019
Heller, M; Sachse, K; Schubert, E
Tasmanian devils face extinction owing to the emergence of a contagious cancer. Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) is a clonal cancer spread owing to a lack of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) barriers in Tasmanian devil populations. We present a comprehensive screen of MHC diversity in devils and identify 25 MHC types and 53 novel sequences, but conclude that overall levels of MHC diversity at the sequence level are low. The majority of MHC Class I variation can be explained by allelic copy number variation with two to seven sequence variants identified per individual. MHC sequences are divided into two distinct groups based on sequence similarity. DFTD cells and most devils have sequences from both groups. Twenty per cent of individuals have a restricted MHC repertoire and contain only group I or only group II sequences. Counterintuitively, we postulate that the immune system of individuals with a restricted MHC repertoire may recognize foreign MHC antigens on the surface of the DFTD cell. The implication of these results for management of DFTD and this endangered species are discussed.
Siddle, Hannah V.; Marzec, Jolanta; Cheng, Yuanyuan; Jones, Menna; Belov, Katherine
Tasmanian devils face extinction owing to the emergence of a contagious cancer. Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) is a clonal cancer spread owing to a lack of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) barriers in Tasmanian devil populations. We present a comprehensive screen of MHC diversity in devils and identify 25 MHC types and 53 novel sequences, but conclude that overall levels of MHC diversity at the sequence level are low. The majority of MHC Class I variation can be explained by allelic copy number variation with two to seven sequence variants identified per individual. MHC sequences are divided into two distinct groups based on sequence similarity. DFTD cells and most devils have sequences from both groups. Twenty per cent of individuals have a restricted MHC repertoire and contain only group I or only group II sequences. Counterintuitively, we postulate that the immune system of individuals with a restricted MHC repertoire may recognize foreign MHC antigens on the surface of the DFTD cell. The implication of these results for management of DFTD and this endangered species are discussed. PMID:20219742
Siddle, Hannah V; Marzec, Jolanta; Cheng, Yuanyuan; Jones, Menna; Belov, Katherine
Highly contagious diseases are caused by various biological agents that pose a risk to individuals and may have a potential for public health impact. They result in high mortality and morbidity rates, might cause public panic and therefore require special measures. The pathogens that can be easily disseminated or transmitted from person to person are the riskiest for clinicians (Ebola virus, Marburg virus, Lassa virus, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, Variola major, SARS virus and Yersinia pestis). Human-to-human transmission has not been confirmed for the other biological agents and therefore they pose a very low risk for population. PMID:23386507
Rybka, Aleš; Szanyi, Juraj; Kapla, Jaroslav; Plíšek, Stanislav
In the event of an outbreak of a highly contagious communicable disease, public health departments often open mass-vaccination or antiviral dispensing clinics to treat the infected population or reduce the further spread of disease. In this research, we have created a simulation of the disease spread process employing a SEIR compartmental model. The model includes employment patterns and separates the
Sean Carr; Stephen Roberts
This paper presents a framework based on a cellular automaton for modeling and processing the spatiotemporal spread of communicable\\u000a diseases. Such a toolbox might be a powerful instrument for health care organizations to generate disease prevention and contingency\\u000a plans. By way of example, the outbreak of the avian flu virus was modeled, and various scenarios such as different medications,\\u000a virus
Bernhard Pfeifer; K. Kugler; M. M. Tejada; C. Baumgartner; M. Seger; A. Graber; B. Tilg
Surveillance systems of contagious diseases record information on cases to monitor incidence of disease and to evaluate effectiveness of interventions. These systems focus on a well-defined population; a key question is whether observed cases are infected through local transmission within the population or whether cases are the result of importation of infection into the population. Local spread of infection calls for different intervention measures than importation of infection. Besides standardized information on time of symptom onset and location of cases, pathogen genotyping or sequencing offers essential information to address this question. Here we introduce a method that takes full advantage of both the genetic and epidemiological data to distinguish local transmission from importation of infection, by comparing inter-case distances in temporal, spatial and genetic data. Cases that are part of a local transmission chain will have shorter distances between their geographical locations, shorter durations between their times of symptom onset and shorter genetic distances between their pathogen sequences as compared to cases that are due to importation. In contrast to generic clustering algorithms, the proposed method explicitly accounts for the fact that during local transmission of a contagious disease the cases are caused by other cases. No pathogen-specific assumptions are needed due to the use of ordinal distances, which allow for direct comparison between the disparate data types. Using simulations, we test the performance of the method in identifying local transmission of disease in large datasets, and assess how sensitivity and specificity change with varying size of local transmission chains and varying overall disease incidence.
Ypma, Rolf J. F.; Donker, Tjibbe; van Ballegooijen, W. Marijn; Wallinga, Jacco
Describes a complex case involving termination of a third-grade teacher with recurrent tuberculosis. The United States Supreme Court upheld a circuit court's ruling that the teacher's condition satisfied section 504 of the 1973 Rehabilitation Act protecting handicapped persons against discrimination. Since contagiousness was not addressed, the…
Flygare, Thomas J.
Discusses fungal, bacterial, and viral infections that may strike athletes during competition, highlighting possible risks of hepatitis, herpes, and HIV. Athletes generally are more at risk off the playing field than while competing. Requiring immunizations against measles and hepatitis B prior to college admission would eliminate two diseases.…
Dorman, John M.
Infectious diseases have led to illness and death for many famous musicians, from the classical period to the rock ’n’ roll era. By the 20th century, as public health improved and orchestral composers began living more settled lives, infections among American and European musicians became less prominent. By mid-century, however, seminal jazz musicians famously pursued lifestyles characterized by drug and alcohol abuse. Among the consequences of this risky lifestyle were tuberculosis, syphilis, and chronic viral hepatitis. More contemporary rock musicians have experienced an epidemic of hepatitis C infection and HIV/AIDS related to intravenous drug use and promiscuity. Musical innovation is thus often accompanied by diseases of neglect and overindulgence, particularly infectious illnesses, although risky behavior and associated infectious illnesses tend to decrease as the style matures.
Sartin, Jeffrey S.
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a respiratory disease of cattle; CBPP is caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides small colony. CBPP is a major cause for concern for African countries (because of mortality, animal-production losses and cost of control). The clinical form of the disease is the more infectious (contagion occurs essentially through coughing). However, chronic lung lesions with viable
Matthieu Lesnoff; Géraud Laval; Pascal Bonnet; Karine Chalvet-Monfray; Renaud Lancelot; Francois Thiaucourt
The decision on which strategy to use in the control of contagious animal diseases involves complex trade-offs between multiple objectives. This paper describes a Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) application to illustrate its potential support to policy makers in choosing the control strategy that best meets all of the conflicting interests. The presented application focused on the evaluation of alternative strategies to control Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemics within the European Union (EU) according to the preferences of the European Chief Veterinary Officers (CVO). The performed analysis was centred on the three high-level objectives of epidemiology, economics and social ethics. The appraised control alternatives consisted of the EU compulsory control strategy, a pre-emptive slaughter strategy, a protective vaccination strategy and a suppressive vaccination strategy. Using averaged preference weights of the elicited CVOs, the preference ranking of the control alternatives was determined for six EU regions. The obtained results emphasized the need for EU region-specific control. Individual CVOs differed in their views on the relative importance of the various (sub)criteria by which the performance of the alternatives were judged. Nevertheless, the individual rankings of the control alternatives within a region appeared surprisingly similar. Based on the results of the described application it was concluded that the structuring feature of the MCDM technique provides a suitable tool in assisting the complex decision making process of controlling contagious animal diseases. PMID:20633939
Mourits, M C M; van Asseldonk, M A P M; Huirne, R B M
The emergence of Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), a highly contagious cancer, is driving Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) to extinction. The cancer is a genetically and chromosomally stable clonal cell line which is transmitted by biting during social interactions. In the present study, we explore the Devil Facial Tumour (DFT) epigenome and the genes involved in DNA methylation homeostasis. We show that tumour cells have similar levels of methylation to peripheral nerves, the tissue from which DFTD originated. We did not observe any strain or region-specific epimutations. However, we revealed a significant increase in hypomethylation in DFT samples over time (p < 0.0001). We propose that loss of methylation is not because of a maintenance deficiency, as an upregulation of DNA methyltransferase 1 gene was observed in tumours compared with nerves (p < 0.005). Instead, we believe that loss of methylation is owing to active demethylation, supported by the temporal increase in MBD2 and MBD4 (p < 0.001). The implications of these changes on disease phenotypes need to be explored. Our work shows that DFTD should not be treated as a static entity, but rather as an evolving parasite with epigenetic plasticity. Understanding the role of epimutations in the evolution of this parasitic cancer will provide unique insights into the role of epigenetic plasticity in cancer evolution and progression in traditional cancers that arise and die with their hosts. PMID:23135679
Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Peck, Sarah; Harmsen, Collette; Taylor, Robyn; Pyecroft, Stephen; Madsen, Thomas; Papenfuss, Anthony T; Belov, Katherine
The emergence of Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), a highly contagious cancer, is driving Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) to extinction. The cancer is a genetically and chromosomally stable clonal cell line which is transmitted by biting during social interactions. In the present study, we explore the Devil Facial Tumour (DFT) epigenome and the genes involved in DNA methylation homeostasis. We show that tumour cells have similar levels of methylation to peripheral nerves, the tissue from which DFTD originated. We did not observe any strain or region-specific epimutations. However, we revealed a significant increase in hypomethylation in DFT samples over time (p < 0.0001). We propose that loss of methylation is not because of a maintenance deficiency, as an upregulation of DNA methyltransferase 1 gene was observed in tumours compared with nerves (p < 0.005). Instead, we believe that loss of methylation is owing to active demethylation, supported by the temporal increase in MBD2 and MBD4 (p < 0.001). The implications of these changes on disease phenotypes need to be explored. Our work shows that DFTD should not be treated as a static entity, but rather as an evolving parasite with epigenetic plasticity. Understanding the role of epimutations in the evolution of this parasitic cancer will provide unique insights into the role of epigenetic plasticity in cancer evolution and progression in traditional cancers that arise and die with their hosts.
Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Peck, Sarah; Harmsen, Collette; Taylor, Robyn; Pyecroft, Stephen; Madsen, Thomas; Papenfuss, Anthony T.; Belov, Katherine
This paper analyses the potential gains and the main challenges for increased cross-border collaboration in the control of highly contagious livestock diseases in regions with cross-border reliance on production and consumption of livestock commodities. The aim of this intensification of cross-border collaboration is to retain the economic advantages of cross-border trade in livestock and livestock commodities while maintaining a low risk of highly contagious livestock diseases. From these two foci, possibilities for future policy making with respect to highly contagious livestock diseases are discussed: peacetime cross-border cooperation to improve the cost-effectiveness of routine veterinary measures and crisis time cross-border harmonization of current disease control strategies. A general disease management framework was used to describe the way in which these two fields are related to and affect the epidemiological system and, consequently, how they impact the stakeholders. In addition to this framework, the importance of a good understanding of influencing factors, that is, the production structure of livestock, was stressed because these factors are important determinants of the frequency and magnitude of highly contagious livestock diseases and their economic impact. The use of the suggested integrated approach was illustrated for the extended cross-border region of the Netherlands and Germany, that is, North Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony. For this region, current difficulties in cross-border trade in livestock and livestock commodities and possibilities for future cross-border collaboration were examined. The concepts and ideas presented in this paper should foster future development of cross-border collaboration in animal health control. PMID:23066698
Hop, G E; Mourits, M C M; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W
Contagious mastitis is defined. The major mastitis pathogens are Streptococcus agalactiae, Staphylococcus aureus, Corynebacterium bovis, Mycoplasma sp, and Streptococcus dysgalactiae. These pathogens are discussed relative to prevalence, virulence factors, pathology, and control. These control measures include milking time hygiene, segregation, culling, vaccination, and treatment. PMID:8242453
Fox, L K; Gay, J M
Viruses are important causes of nosocomial infection, but the fact that hospital outbreaks often result from introduction(s) from community-based epidemics, together with the need to initiate specific laboratory testing, means that there are usually insufficient data to allow the monitoring of trends in incidences. The most important defenses against nosocomial transmission of viruses are detailed and continuing education of staff and strict adherence to infection control policies. Protocols must be available to assist in the management of patients with suspected or confirmed viral infection in the health care setting. In this review, we present details on general measures to prevent the spread of viral infection in hospitals and other health care environments. These include principles of accommodation of infected patients and approaches to good hygiene and patient management. They provide detail on individual viral diseases accompanied in each case with specific information on control of the infection and, where appropriate, details of preventive and therapeutic measures. The important areas of nosocomial infection due to blood-borne viruses have been extensively reviewed previously and are summarized here briefly, with citation of selected review articles. Human prion diseases, which present management problems very different from those of viral infection, are not included.
Aitken, Celia; Jeffries, Donald J.
The reconciliation of 1867 between Austria and Hungary brought great changes to Hungarian public administration: the way towards the building up of a modern public administration had been opened. Although there was a functioning public health system and a related legislation from the late 18th century, major issues - such as balanced geographical distribution of medical personnel, fair access to medical services even in the poorer regions of the country, and the effective protection against some contagious diseases - were not resolved for decades. During the reform work of public administration since the 1870s, the lawmakers touched repeatedly the framework and functioning of the public health as well. Although the general conditions of the domain depended traditionally on the municipalities and counties due to the national importance of the matter, the government made efforts to make the functioning of the public health more efficient through centralisation. The contagious diseases continuously endangered the population, revealing the weak points in the existing public health system, thereby giving a momentum to the reforms and helping the government in its organization of prevention and clearly contributing to the legislation work. PMID:24304105
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) was first introduced in Tanzania in 1916 and was eradicated in 1964. The disease re-emerged in the country in 1990 and since then it has spread widely, threatening the entire national cattle herd. Because of lack of a clear disease-control policy, uncontrolled cattle movements, lack of public awareness and commitment, ineffective legislation, attempts to control and
L. J. M. Kusiluka; F. F. Sudi
Contagious cancers that pass between individuals as an infectious cell line are highly unusual pathogens. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such contagious cancer that emerged 16 y ago and is driving the Tasmanian devil to extinction. As both a pathogen and an allograft, DFTD cells should be rejected by the host-immune response, yet DFTD causes 100% mortality among infected devils with no apparent rejection of tumor cells. Why DFTD cells are not rejected has been a question of considerable confusion. Here, we show that DFTD cells do not express cell surface MHC molecules in vitro or in vivo, due to down-regulation of genes essential to the antigen-processing pathway, such as ?2-microglobulin and transporters associated with antigen processing. Loss of gene expression is not due to structural mutations, but to regulatory changes including epigenetic deacetylation of histones. Consequently, MHC class I molecules can be restored to the surface of DFTD cells in vitro by using recombinant devil IFN-?, which is associated with up-regulation of the MHC class II transactivator, a key transcription factor with deacetylase activity. Further, expression of MHC class I molecules by DFTD cells can occur in vivo during lymphocyte infiltration. These results explain why T cells do not target DFTD cells. We propose that MHC-positive or epigenetically modified DFTD cells may provide a vaccine to DFTD. In addition, we suggest that down-regulation of MHC molecules using regulatory mechanisms allows evolvability of transmissible cancers and could affect the evolutionary trajectory of DFTD. PMID:23479617
Siddle, Hannah V; Kreiss, Alexandre; Tovar, Cesar; Yuen, Chun Kit; Cheng, Yuanyuan; Belov, Katherine; Swift, Kate; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Hamede, Rodrigo; Jones, Menna E; Skjødt, Karsten; Woods, Gregory M; Kaufman, Jim
Contagious cancers that pass between individuals as an infectious cell line are highly unusual pathogens. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such contagious cancer that emerged 16 y ago and is driving the Tasmanian devil to extinction. As both a pathogen and an allograft, DFTD cells should be rejected by the host–immune response, yet DFTD causes 100% mortality among infected devils with no apparent rejection of tumor cells. Why DFTD cells are not rejected has been a question of considerable confusion. Here, we show that DFTD cells do not express cell surface MHC molecules in vitro or in vivo, due to down-regulation of genes essential to the antigen-processing pathway, such as ?2-microglobulin and transporters associated with antigen processing. Loss of gene expression is not due to structural mutations, but to regulatory changes including epigenetic deacetylation of histones. Consequently, MHC class I molecules can be restored to the surface of DFTD cells in vitro by using recombinant devil IFN-?, which is associated with up-regulation of the MHC class II transactivator, a key transcription factor with deacetylase activity. Further, expression of MHC class I molecules by DFTD cells can occur in vivo during lymphocyte infiltration. These results explain why T cells do not target DFTD cells. We propose that MHC-positive or epigenetically modified DFTD cells may provide a vaccine to DFTD. In addition, we suggest that down-regulation of MHC molecules using regulatory mechanisms allows evolvability of transmissible cancers and could affect the evolutionary trajectory of DFTD.
Siddle, Hannah V.; Kreiss, Alexandre; Tovar, Cesar; Yuen, Chun Kit; Cheng, Yuanyuan; Belov, Katherine; Swift, Kate; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Hamede, Rodrigo; Jones, Menna E.; Skj?dt, Karsten; Woods, Gregory M.; Kaufman, Jim
Using Maple, Mathmatica, or MatLab, learner should be able to develop the SIR Model for the spread of an infectious disease, including the concepts of contact number and herd immunity; to develop a version of Eulers Method for solving a system of differential equations.
Although cancer can on occasion be caused by infectious agents such as specific bacteria, parasites, and viruses, it is not generally considered a transmissible disease. In rare circumstances, however, direct communication from one host to another has been documented. The Tasmanian devil is now threatened with extinction in the wild because of a fatal transmissible cancer, devil facial tumor disease (DFTD). Another example is canine transmissible venereal tumor (CTVT or Sticker's sarcoma) in dogs. There is a vast difference in prognosis between these two conditions. DFTD is often fatal within 6 months, whereas most cases of CTVT are eventually rejected by the host dog, who then is conferred lifelong immunity. In man, only scattered case reports exist about such communicable cancers, most often in the setting of organ or hematopoietic stem cell transplants and cancers arising during pregnancy that are transmitted to the fetus. In about one third of cases, transplant recipients develop cancers from donor organs from individuals who were found to harbor malignancies after the transplantation. The fact that two thirds of the time cancer does not develop, along with the fact that cancer very rarely is transmitted from person to person, supports the notion that natural immunity prevents such cancers from taking hold in man. These observations might hold invaluable clues to the immunobiology and possible immunotherapy of cancer. PMID:21212437
Welsh, James S
The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epidemic spreading on complex networks. We give a general outlook of the relation between link percolation and the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and introduce the node void percolation process to describe the dilution of the network composed by healthy individual, i.e, the network that sustain the functionality of a society. Then, we survey two strategies: the quenched disorder strategy where an heterogeneous distribution of contact intensities is induced in society, and the intermittent social distancing strategy where health individuals are persuaded to avoid contact with their neighbors for intermittent periods of time. Using percolation tools, we show that both strategies may halt the epidemic spreading. Finally, we discuss the role of the transmissibility, i.e, the effective probability to transmit a disease, on the performance of the strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading.
Valdez, L. D.; Buono, C.; Macri, P. A.; Braunstein, L. A.
The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epidemic spreading on complex networks. We give a general outlook of the relation between link percolation and the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and introduce the node void percolation process to describe the dilution of the network composed by healthy individual, i.e., the network that sustain the functionality of a society. Then, we survey two strategies: the quenched disorder strategy where an heterogeneous distribution of contact intensities is induced in society, and the intermittent social distancing strategy where health individuals are persuaded to avoid contact with their neighbors for intermittent periods of time. Using percolation tools, we show that both strategies may halt the epidemic spreading. Finally, we discuss the role of the transmissibility, i.e., the effective probability to transmit a disease, on the performance of the strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading.
Valdez, L. D.; Buono, C.; Macri, P. A.; Braunstein, L. A.
Growing budget restrictions in many countries have meant that official Veterinary Services cannot assume responsibility for any new activities. The natural reaction is to turn to private veterinary services to provide the support needed to strengthen the control and surveillance of priority diseases and thereby support the development of the livestock sector and the establishment of safe international trade. In this context, official Veterinary Services must work together with private veterinarians, delegating various technical animal health activities, so that they may focus their efforts on those tasks that cannot be delegated: standardisation, control, auditing, general system co-ordination, epidemiological surveillance, etc., as well as organising veterinary policy in order to make best use of budget resources. For these relations to be efficient, a dynamic, two-way epidemiological information mechanism must be created, whereby private veterinarians periodically keep governments informed, on the basis of an agreed methodology. Moreover, the official Veterinary Services must systematically transmit information on List A and B diseases of the OIE (World organisation for animal health), and perform detailed analyses of epidemiologically significant events. The article proposes the establishment of relations between public and private veterinary services as a way in which to provide the livestock sector with the health and hygiene conditions that are necessary for effective disease control, which in turn provides greater security for international trade and increased consumer protection. PMID:15200088
Moura, J A; Bedoya, M; Agudelo, M P
This text summarizes a series of four lectures presented at the PASI on Modern Challenges in Statistical Mechanics. The idea was to give to the students a flavor of the biological aspects involved in the dynamics of infection and the spread of diseases, the complexity of the systems involved, and how we can improve our modeling of such systems by using different approaches in order to get closer to experimental results. In a huge universe of publications about the subject, we restrict the list of references to the ones that may be useful to the students and will lead them to other important work. Therefore, the text should not be taken as a review of the subject, but rather as an introductory text for physicists about the dynamics of infection and spread of diseases and the role of biological physics in this interdisciplinary field.
Zorzenon Dos Santos, Rita Maria
Pandemic and seasonal infectious diseases such as influenza may have serious negative health and economic consequences. Certain non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies--including school closures--can be implemented rapidly as a first line of defense against spread. Such interventions attempt to reduce the effective number of contacts between individuals within a community; yet the efficacy of closing schools to reduce disease transmission is unclear, and closures certainly result in significant economic impacts for caregivers who must stay at home to care for their children. Using individual-based computer simulation models to trace contacts among schoolchildren within a stereotypical school setting, we show how alternative school-based disease interventions have great potential to be as effective as traditional school closures without the corresponding loss of workforce and economic impacts. PMID:22242138
Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Braun, Alexis; Teyrasse, Thomas; Goldsman, David
Pandemic and seasonal infectious diseases such as influenza may have serious negative health and economic consequences. Certain non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies – including school closures – can be implemented rapidly as a first line of defense against spread. Such interventions attempt to reduce the effective number of contacts between individuals within a community; yet the efficacy of closing schools to reduce disease transmission is unclear, and closures certainly result in significant economic impacts for caregivers who must stay at home to care for their children. Using individual-based computer simulation models to trace contacts among schoolchildren within a stereotypical school setting, we show how alternative school-based disease interventions have great potential to be as effective as traditional school closures without the corresponding loss of workforce and economic impacts.
Ridenhour, Benjamin J.; Braun, Alexis; Teyrasse, Thomas; Goldsman, David
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease in cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of species which are susceptible, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of virus that can initiate infection in susceptible hosts. One of the routes for the spread of the disease is the atmospheric dispersion of virus exhaled by infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have occurred over a distance of several hundred kilometres. For the FMD epidemic in UK in 2001, atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to describe the atmospheric dispersion of virus for the larger outbreaks of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is first of all to identify risk zones, which is helpful to the emergency management. The paper addresses the modelling techniques and presents results related with the epidemic in UK in 2001.
Sørensen, J. H.; Mikkelsen, T.; Astrup, P.; Alexandersen, S.; Donaldson, A. I.
The Committee Studying Contagious Disease Training for Public Safety Personnel. Report of the Committee on Training of the Criminal Justice Services Board to the Governor and the General Assembly of Virginia. House Document No. 15.
Through discussion and extensive research, the Committee Studying Contagious Disease Training attempted to address concerns regarding education and training of public safety personnel with regard to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV). The committee's findings were based on Occupational Safety and Health Administration…
Virginia State Dept. of Criminal Justice Services, Richmond.
Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease transmission; and the evolution of this pattern over time. Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches to incorporate these elements. The
Pierre-Andre Noel; Bahman Davoudi; Louis J. Dube; Robert C. Brunham; Babak Pourbohloul
Summary In April 2002, an investigation into an outbreak of acute respiratory disease in goats and sheep in Milae (Afar), Ethiopia was conducted. The investigation involved 4 flocks (722 sheep and 750 goats in total) and comprised the disease history, clinical and post-mortem examination, and microbiological analysis of nasal swabs, lung lesions, and pleural fluid samples. Clinically diseased animals exhibited
G. Shiferaw; S. Tariku; G. Ayelet; Z. Abebe
Rapid air travel has increased the potential for international transmission of infectious diseases. Important aspects of this problem include the transmission of foodborne and waterborne illnesses, the translocation of insect vectors, the rapid transport of individuals with incubating illnesses, the direct transmission of diseases inside aircraft and the transmission of zoonoses through animal transport. Infectious outbreaks on aircraft and in the vicinity of airports have included influenza, staphylococcal gastroenteritis, salmonellosis, cholera and malaria. PMID:2683687
Royal, L; McCoubrey, I
Background In addition to livestock movements, other between-farm contacts such as visitors may contribute to the spread of contagious animal diseases. Knowledge about such contacts is essential for contingency planning. Preventive measures, risk-based surveillance and contact tracing may be facilitated if the frequency and type of between-farm contacts can be assessed for different types of farms. The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency and types of visitors on farms with cloven-hoofed animals in Sweden and to analyse whether there were differences in the number of visitors attributable to region, season, and type of herd. Data were collected from Swedish farmers through contact-logs covering two-week periods during four different seasons. Results In total, 482 (32%) farmers filled in the contact log for at least one period and the data represent 18,416 days. The average number of professional and non-professional visitors per day was 0.3 and 0.8, respectively. Whereas the number of professional visitors seemed to increase with increasing herd size, this relation was not seen for non-professional visits. The mean numbers of visitors per day were highest in the summer and in the farm category ‘small mixed farm’. Reports of the visitors’ degree of contact with the animals showed that veterinarians, AI-technicians, animal transporters and neighbours were often in direct contact with the animals or entered the stables and 8.8% of the repairmen were also in direct contact with animals, which was unexpected. In a multivariable analysis, species, herd size and season were significantly associated with the number of professional visitors as well as the number of visitors in direct contact with the animals. Conclusion In conclusion there was a large variation between farms in the number and type of contacts. The number of visitors that may be more likely to spread diseases between farms was associated with animal species and herd size.
Evidence continues to accumulate supporting the hypothesis that tissue damage during an immune response can lead to the priming of self-reactive T and\\/or B lymphocytes, regardless of the specificity of the initial insult. This review will focus primarily on epitope spreading at the T-cell level. Understanding the cellular and molecular basis of epitope spreading in various chronic immune-mediated human diseases
Carol L. Vanderlugt; Stephen D. Miller
Cortical spreading depolarization is a wave of almost complete depolarization of the neuronal and glial cells that occurs in different neurological diseases such as migraine with aura, subarachnoid hemorrhage, intracerebral hemorrhage, head trauma and stroke. These depolarization waves are characterized by a change in the negative potential with an amplitude between -10 and -30mV, duration of ?1min and changes in the ion homeostasis between the intra- and extracellular space. This results in neuronal edema and dendritic distortion. Under pathologic states of hypoperfusion, cortical spreading depolarization can produce oxidative stress, worsen hypoxia and induce neuronal death. This is due to intense arterial vasoconstriction produced by an inverse response called spreading ischemia. Only in the last years there has been an electrophysiological confirmation of cortical spreading depolarization in human brains. Occurrence of cortical spreading depolarization has been associated with worse outcome in patients. Currently, increased knowledge regarding the pathophysiologic mechanisms supports the hypothetical correlation of cortical spreading depolarization with brain damage in humans. There are diverse therapeutic alternatives that promise inhibition of cortical spreading depolarization and subsequent better outcomes. PMID:23928069
Sánchez-Porras, Renán; Robles-Cabrera, Adriana; Santos, Edgar
This resource is a manual for instructing a laboratory exercise in epidemiology.Students use computer simulations to examine the spread of a disease under different conditions in human populations. This exercise is suitable for courses in human health, population ecology, or epidemiology, and could be expanded to apply to general ecology or theoretical ecology courses.
Nancy L. Goodyear (Bainbridge College;)
Patterns of sexual mixing and heterogeneity in the number of sexual partners can have a huge effect on the spread of a sexually transmitted disease (STD). The sexual mixing network identifies all partnerships within a population over a given period and is a powerful tool in the study of such infections. Previous models assumed all links within the network to
Ken T. D. Eames; Matt J. Keeling
The factors influencing spread of Lyme disease are often studied using computer-based simulations and spatially explicit models. However, simulating large and complex models is a time consuming task, even when parallel simulation techniques are employed. In an endeavor to accelerate such simulations, an alternative approach involving dynamic (i.e., during simulation) changes to spatial resolution of the model via a novel
Dhananjai Madhava Rao; Philip A. Wilsey
While transfer of a protein encoded by a single nucleus to nearby nuclei in multinucleated cells has been known for almost 25 years, the biological consequences for gain-of-function diseases have not been considered. Here, we have investigated nuclear protein spreading and its potential consequences in two of the three most prevalent neuromuscular diseases. By performing co-cultures between diseased or control human myoblasts and murine C2C12 myoblasts, we demonstrate that in facioscapulohumeral dystrophy, although the transcription of the toxic protein DUX4 occurs in only a limited number of nuclei, the resulting protein diffuses into nearby nuclei within the myotubes, thus spreading aberrant gene expression. In myotonic dystrophy type 1, we observed that in human-mouse heterokaryons, the expression of a mutated DMPK from human nuclei titrates splicing factors produced by neighboring nuclei, inducing the mis-splicing of several pre-mRNAs in murine nuclei. In both cases, the spreading of the pathological phenotypes from one nucleus to another is observed, highlighting an additional mechanism that contributes to the dissemination and worsening of the muscle pathogenesis. These results indicate that nuclear protein spreading may be an important component of pathophysiology of gain of function muscular diseases which should be taken into consideration in the design of new therapeutic approaches. PMID:24659496
Ferreboeuf, Maxime; Mariot, Virginie; Furling, Denis; Butler-Browne, Gillian; Mouly, Vincent; Dumonceaux, Julie
In this paper, we consider a pair of homogeneous diseases spreading concurrently on uniform networks based on the SIS model. A new model describing the transmission process of the interacting diseases is established. The influence of the transmission parameters, the interacting parameter and the initial density value of infected nodes on the epidemic spreading is presented by simulating the transmission process of the proposed model. The mathematical expressions of the conditions among the transmission parameters, the interacting parameter and the network parameter when diseases can exist in the network based on the simplified model are presented. Comparing the transmission process of this interacting model under different intervals of the interacting parameter, it is found that the interacting of the two diseases leads to larger scale prevalence with a relatively larger interacting parameter when the infection breaks out.
Feng, Yun; Fan, Qingli; Ma, Lin; Ding, Li
Observations and Investigations on Contagious Pustular Dermatitis (Echthyma Contagiosum) of Sheep as a Human Disease (Beobachtungen und Untersuchungen ueber den Lippengrind (Ecthyma Contagiosum) der Schafe als Zooanthroponose).
Ecthyma virus (contagious pustular dermatitis virus) of humans as well as ovine (sheep) origin have been isolated and serially passed in tissue cultures of calf testes cells. After growth in tissue culture, the sheep virus strain was shown to be the conta...
Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable\\u000adisease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying\\u000acontact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease\\u000atransmission; and the evolution of this pattern over time. Mathematical models\\u000aof infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two\\u000ageneral approaches to incorporate these elements. The
Pierre-André Noël; Bahman Davoudi; Louis J. Dubé; Robert C. Brunham; Babak Pourbohloul
The advent of long-haul travel in the past 10 years has considerably reduced the time of potential disease spread from one side of the world to the other. The implication for travelers is that they may unwittingly be in the prodromal phase of influenza and become symptomatic a few days after travel. Alternatively they may knowingly travel with an infectious disease by masking symptoms. This article outlines the myths that have abounded about the cabin environment being "unclean" and discusses the low likelihood of in-flight transmission with effective air-conditioning and filtration systems. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic highlighted the operational challenges of dealing with infectious disease, including the need for accurate passenger information to allow contact tracing, in contrast to futile measures such as thermal scanners. Containment attempts did not stop the rapid global spread of H1N1 influenza. PMID:20566546
Webster, Cliff H
During the European exchange market turmoil in 1992–1993 it was evident that speculative attacks tended to spread across currencies. Using a two-country version of the model developed by Flood and Garber (1984) we show how a speculative attack against one currency may accelerate the ‘warranted’ collapse of a second parity. More importantly, even if the parity of the second currency
Stefan Gerlach; Frank Smets
Cancer is generally defined as uncontrollable growth of cells caused by genetic aberrations and/or environmental factors. Yet contagious cancers also occur. The recent emergence of a contagious cancer in Tasmanian devils has reignited interest in transmissible cancers. Two naturally occurring transmissible cancers are known: devil facial tumour disease and canine transmissible venereal tumour. Both cancers evolved once and have then been transmitted from one individual to another as clonal cell lines. The dog cancer is ancient; having evolved more than 6,000 years ago, while the devil disease was first seen in 1996. In this review I will compare and contrast the two diseases focusing on the life histories of the clonal cell lines, their evolutionary trajectories and the mechanisms by which they have achieved immune tolerance. A greater understanding of these contagious cancers will provide unique insights into the role of the immune system in shaping tumour evolution and may uncover novel approaches for treating human cancer. PMID:22383221
Background Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. Methodology/Principal Findings Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified “pipe” model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a “gravity” model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. Conclusions/Significance If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.
Lessler, Justin; Kaufman, James H.; Ford, Daniel A.; Douglas, Judith V.
Thirty-nine lesions, originally diagnosed as Paget's disease (19), superficial spreading melanoma (13) or Bowen's disease (7), were reviewed. Supplementary immunohistochemistry on routine processed tissue, using antibodies to cytokeratins (PKK1 and M717) and to S-100 protein, was carried out. Two of the lesions, originally classified as Bowen's disease and superficial spreading type malignant melanoma respectively, were reclassified as Paget's disease based on the immunohistochemical findings. Both lesions contained pagetoid cells positive with PKK1. The results indicate that immunohistochemistry may sometimes be valuable in establishing the correct diagnosis in such lesions. PMID:1695889
Reed, W; Oppedal, B R; Eeg Larsen, T
The air flow in and around poultry houses has been studied numerically with the goal of determining disease spread characteristics and comparing ventilation schemes. A typical manure-belt layer egg production facility is considered. The continuity, momentum, and energy equations are solved for flow both inside and outside poultry houses using the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT. Both simplified two-dimensional and fully three-dimensional geometries are modeled. The spread of virus particles is considered to be analogous to diffusion of a tracer contaminant gas, in this case ammonia. The effect of thermal plumes produced by the hens in the poultry house is also considered. Two ventilation schemes with opposite flow directions are compared. Contours of temperature and ammonia mass fraction for both cases are obtained and compared. The analysis shows that ventilation and air quality characteristics are much better for the case in which the air flow is from bottom to top (enhancing the thermal plume) instead of from top to bottom (fighting the thermal plume) as in most poultry houses. This has implications in air quality control in the event of epidemic outbreaks of avian flu or other infectious diseases.
Cimbala, John; Pawar, Sourabh; Wheeler, Eileen; Lindberg, Darla
In this paper, we investigate numerically the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model on an exponential network generated by a preferential attachment procedure. The discrete SIRS model considers two main parameters: the duration ?0 of the complete infection-recovery cycle and the duration ?I of infection. A permanent source of infection I0 has also been introduced in order to avoid the vanishing of the disease in the SIRS model. The fraction of infected agents is found to oscillate with a period T??0. Simulations reveal that the average fraction of infected agents depends on I0 and ?I/?0. A maximum of synchronization of infected agents, i.e. a maximum amplitude of periodic spreading oscillations, is found to occur when the ratio ?I/?0 is slightly smaller than 1/2. The model is in agreement with the general observation that an outbreak corresponds to high ?I/?0 values.
Ababou, M.; Vandewalle, N.; Moussa, N.; El Bouziani, M.; Ludewig, F.
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action susceptible–infected–recovered model of Kermack & McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical simplicity; however, it incorrectly assumes that all individuals have the same contact rate and partnerships are fleeting. In this study, we introduce edge-based compartmental modelling, a technique eliminating these assumptions. We derive simple ordinary differential equation models capturing social heterogeneity (heterogeneous contact rates) while explicitly considering the impact of partnership duration. We introduce a graphical interpretation allowing for easy derivation and communication of the model and focus on applying the technique under different assumptions about how contact rates are distributed and how long partnerships last.
Miller, Joel C.; Slim, Anja C.; Volz, Erik M.
Patterns of sexual mixing and heterogeneity in the number of sexual partners can have a huge effect on the spread of a sexually transmitted disease (STD). The sexual mixing network identifies all partnerships within a population over a given period and is a powerful tool in the study of such infections. Previous models assumed all links within the network to be concurrent active partnerships. We present a novel modelling approach in which we adapt the notion of a sexual contact network to a monogamous population by allowing the nature of the links to change. We use the underlying network to represent potential sexual partnerships, only some of which are active at any one time. Thus serial monogamy can be modelled while maintaining the patterns of mixing displayed by the population. PMID:15094315
Eames, Ken T D; Keeling, Matt J
The authors have described an epizootic infection of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides biotype Small Colony (MmmSC), that has affected Ndama bovine in Lounthy village, a locality based in Bala city in the Eastern part of Senegal, during the post-rainy season in November 2012. After the cessation of vaccination, a hotbed of suspicion of CBPP was identified on November 3rd 2012 in the village of Lounthy: out of the total of 98 cattle, 13 animals were sick and 5 of them died. These studies have been done according to clinical aspects, serological, bacteriological and molecular analysis of the samples. This reemergent disease will give new orientations for CBPP control in Senegal, where it was supposed the disease has been eradicated since 2005. PMID:23832316
Mbengue, M; Diallo, A A; Lo, F T; Lo, M M; Diop, M; Seck, P S; Samb, Y; Diouf, M; Thiongane, Y
Our goal in this report was to determine whether symptom progression in primary lateral sclerosis (PLS) was consistent with disease spread through axonal pathways or contiguous cortical regions. The date of symptom onset in each limb and cranial region was obtained from 45 PLS patient charts. Each appearance of symptoms in a new body region was classified as axonal, contiguous, possibly contiguous, or unrelated, according to whether the somatotopic representations were adjacent in the cortex. Of 152 spread events, the first spread event was equally divided between axonal (22) and contiguous (23), but the majority of subsequent spread events were classified as contiguous. Symptom progression in PLS patients is consistent with disease spread along axonal tracts and by local cortical spread. Both were equally likely for the first spread event, but local cortical spread was predominant thereafter, suggesting that late degeneration does not advance through long axonal tracts. PMID:24464677
Lauren, Flynn; Stephen, Matthew; Floeter, Mary Kay
Background The construction of complex spatial simulation models such as those used in network epidemiology, is a daunting task due to the large amount of data involved in their parameterization. Such data, which frequently resides on large geo-referenced databases, has to be processed and assigned to the various components of the model. All this just to construct the model, then it still has to be simulated and analyzed under different epidemiological scenarios. This workflow can only be achieved efficiently by computational tools that can automate most, if not all, these time-consuming tasks. In this paper, we present a simulation software, Epigrass, aimed to help designing and simulating network-epidemic models with any kind of node behavior. Results A Network epidemiological model representing the spread of a directly transmitted disease through a bus-transportation network connecting mid-size cities in Brazil. Results show that the topological context of the starting point of the epidemic is of great importance from both control and preventive perspectives. Conclusion Epigrass is shown to facilitate greatly the construction, simulation and analysis of complex network models. The output of model results in standard GIS file formats facilitate the post-processing and analysis of results by means of sophisticated GIS software.
Coelho, Flavio C; Cruz, Oswaldo G; Codeco, Claudia T
The purpose here established was that of establishing, within the municipalities in the southern part of the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul, the profile of admittances to hospital resulting from Non-Contagious Chronic Diseases Sensitive to Primary Health Care (NCCDSPHC) among chronologically advantaged patients. This is a transversal study with secondary data obtained from the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Public Health System--SUS (DATASUS), including variables related to admittance to hospital and also the mortality rates in hospitals (according to causes, gender, age, and time spent in hospital). The NCCDSPHC are responsible for 43.99% of hospital admittances for all causes (AAC), with Pulmonary Diseases standing out as the most prevalent single group (18%), followed by Heart Failure (12.28%). The female sex, with the exception of the Pulmonary Disease category, is the one that causes most admittances to hospital through other causes. We also found a linear trend towards an increase in the mortality rate of the NCCDSPHC when grouped together Our conclusion is that, due to the magnitude of the admittances to hospital, as also the increase in the mortality caused by the NCCDSPHC, it is urgent to embark on more in-depth considerations about care to be taken as part of primary care for the chronologically advantaged in this region. PMID:24344594
dos Santos, Vilma Constancia Fioravante; Kalsing, Alice; Ruiz, Eliziane Nicolodi Francescato; Roese, Adriana; Gerhardt, Tatiana Engel
...recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. 147.27 Section 147.27 ...recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. (a) The vehicle...
...recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. 147.27 Section 147.27 ...recommended to prevent the spread of disease by artificial insemination of turkeys. (a) The vehicle...
CBPP reappeared in Arusha, Northern Tanzania in 1990, having been introduced from Kenya. The disease spread rapidly to Mara region through rustling of sick or infected animals. In November 1992, an unrelated outbreak occurred in Kagera, having spread from Southern Uganda. Up to the end of December 1994, the disease appeared to be confined to Kagera and Arusha. In January 1995, CBPP was observed in Morogoro region, south of the central railway line. Thereafter, the disease spread through western Tanzania. More recently, further disease has occurred in the Southern Highlands and Central regions. The contaminated area now stretches roughly between latitudes 1 degree and 9 degrees S and longitudes 30 degrees and 37 degrees E, with a cattle population of about 10 million. The direct losses incurred as a result of animal mortality, and vaccination campaign and disease surveillance costs have been assessed at over US$11 million. Indirect losses resulting from chronic disease are much more difficult to assess but are believed to be even higher. Control of the disease has been through restricting animal movements and a mass vaccination campaign. Uncontrolled animal movement during transhumance, trade, cattle thefts and vaccination breakthroughs facilitated the spread of the disease. PMID:11234189
Msami, H M; Ponela-Mlelwa, T; Mtei, B J; Kapaga, A M
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most feared of transboundary animal diseases. Accidental or deliberate release of the causative agent can have both direct and indirect effects that result in massive economic losses and disruption. The direct effects of an FMD outbreak include immediate losses to agricultural production and disruption of local economies, while the indirect effects are mainly related to disease control measures such as restriction of market access at local and global levels and the high costs of disease control. To improve the capacity of the European Union (EU) to counter animal bioterrorism threats, AniBioThreat was launched with a special focus on threats to living animals, feed, and food of animal origin. As part of this project, several zoonotic or animal pathogenic agents are considered from different perspectives. FMD virus was selected as one agent to be scrutinized because it is highly contagious and an outbreak can have a severe economic impact. Ways to fight a deliberate outbreak can be demonstrated through the example of FMD. In this article, the virology and epidemiology of FMD virus are discussed with special attention to the related law enforcement aspects. PMID:23971796
Farsang, Attila; Frentzel, Hendrik; Kulcsár, Gábor; Soós, Tibor
Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines, more convincing evidence is needed of a causal link. PMID:18987318
Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J
In an attempt to study the spread of diseases in the National University of Singapore (NUS), a simulation model unique to the NUS environment was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of different intervention policies during the event of a disease outbreak. The system allows the user to introduce a user-defined disease into the NUS population to study its impact. The effectiveness of various intervention policies on selected diseases are evaluated and presented in the paper.
Tan, Gary S. H.; Lau, R.
Conceptualizing a population as a set of individuals linked together to form a large social network provides a fruitful perspective for better understanding the spread of some infectious diseases. Data related to AIDS (the acquired immune deficiency syndrome) were used to illustrate the potential usefulness of a network approach in evaluating the infectious agent hypothesis when studying a disease or
Alden S. Klovdahl
The spread of an infectious disease is sensitive to the contact patterns in the population and to precautions people take to reduce the transmission of the disease. We investigate the impact that different mixing assumptions have on the spread an infectious disease in an age-structured ordinary differential equation model. We consider the impact of heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity within the population on the disease transmission. We apply the analysis to the spread of a smallpox-like disease, derive the formula for the reproduction number, ~0, and based on this threshold parameter, show the level of human behavioral change required to control the epidemic. We analyze how different mixing patterns can affect the disease prevalence, the cumulative number of new infections, and the final epidemic size. Our analysis indicates that the combination of residual immunity and behavioral changes during a smallpox-like disease outbreak can play a key role in halting infectious disease spread; and that realistic mixing patterns must be included in the epidemic model for the predictions to accurately reflect reality. PMID:24245626
Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, J M; Chitnis, Nakul
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an always-fatal, neurological illness occurring in North American cervids (members of the deer family), including white-tailed deer, mule deer, elk and moose. Since its discovery in 1967, CWD has spread geographically and increased in prevalence locally. CWD is contagious; it can be transmitted freely within and among free-ranging populations. It is likely that diseased animals can transmit CWD to healthy animals long before they become clinically ill. Managing CWD in free-ranging populations is extremely difficult, therefore preventative measures designed to reduce the chance for disease spread are critically important.
Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. To study the interplay between short-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatiotemporal pattern of a global epidemic we (i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms and (ii) integrate in a worldwide-structured metapopulation epidemic model a timescale-separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large-scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short-range mobility increases, however, the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multiscale framework.
Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Goncalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, Jose J.; Vespignani, Alessandro
Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. To study the interplay between short-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatiotemporal pattern of a global epidemic we (i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms and (ii) integrate in a worldwide-structured metapopulation epidemic model a timescale-separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large-scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short-range mobility increases, however, the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multiscale framework. PMID:20018697
Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J; Vespignani, Alessandro
The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases. PMID:23202882
Barrios, José Miguel; Verstraeten, Willem W; Maes, Piet; Aerts, Jean-Marie; Farifteh, Jamshid; Coppin, Pol
Here we present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. We discuss the flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies. This makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading, the understanding of historical epidemics, the assessment of the role of human mobility in shaping global epidemics, and the analysis of mitigation and containment scenarios. PMID:21415939
Balcan, Duygu; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J; Colizza, Vittoria; Vespignani, Alessandro
Here we present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. We discuss the flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies. This makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading, the understanding of historical epidemics, the assessment of the role of human mobility in shaping global epidemics, and the analysis of mitigation and containment scenarios.
Balcan, Duygu; Goncalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, Jose J.; Colizza, Vittoria
In baseball, it is believed that "hitting is contagious," that is, probability of success increases if the previous few batters get a hit. Could this effect be partially explained by action induction--that is, the tendency to perform an action related to one that has just been observed? A simulation was used to investigate the effect of inducing…
Gray, Rob; Beilock, Sian L.
We propose a class of mathematical models for the transmission of infectious diseases in large populations. This class of models, which generalizes the existing discrete-time Markov chain models of infectious diseases, is compatible with efficient dynamic optimization techniques to assist real-time selection and modification of public health interventions in response to evolving epidemiological situations and changing availability of information and medical resources. While retaining the strength of existing classes of mathematical models in their ability to represent the within-host natural history of disease and between-host transmission dynamics, the proposed models possess two advantages over previous models: (1) these models can be used to generate optimal dynamic health policies for controlling spreads of infectious diseases, and (2) these models are able to approximate the spread of the disease in relatively large populations with a limited state space size and computation time. PMID:21966083
Yaesoubi, Reza; Cohen, Ted
The belief among Nigerians that epilepsy is infectious is widely reported in the relevant professional literature. This belief, however, has not been subjected to scientific investigation and its magnitude has not been assessed, despite the fact that it is one of the most serious obstacles to the care and rehabilitation of epileptics. The study reported here attempted to provide such
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock that has serious consequences on livestock production\\u000a and trade. In Australia, preparedness and planning includes the development of decision-support tools that would assist priority\\u000a setting and resource management in the event of an incursion. In this paper we describe an integrated modelling approach using\\u000a geographic information system (GIS) technology to
M. G. Garner; G. D. Hess; X. Yang
Background Transboundary animal movements facilitate the spread of pathogens across large distances. Cross-border cattle trade is of economic and cultural importance in West Africa. This study explores the potential disease risk resulting from large-scale, cross-border cattle trade between Togo, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin, and Nigeria for the first time. Methods and Principal Findings A questionnaire-based survey of livestock movements of 226 cattle traders was conducted in the 9 biggest cattle markets of northern Togo in February-March 2012. More than half of the traders (53.5%) operated in at least one other country. Animal flows were stochastically simulated based on reported movements and the risk of regional disease spread assessed. More than three quarters (79.2%, range: 78.1–80.0%) of cattle flowing into the market system originated from other countries. Through the cattle market system of northern Togo, non-neighbouring countries were connected via potential routes for disease spread. Even for diseases with low transmissibility and low prevalence in a given country, there was a high risk of disease introduction into other countries. Conclusions By stochastically simulating data collected by interviewing cattle traders in northern Togo, this study identifies potential risks for regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade. The findings highlight that surveillance for emerging infectious diseases as well as control activities targeting endemic diseases in West Africa are likely to be ineffective if only conducted at a national level. A regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control is essential.
Dean, Anna S.; Fournie, Guillaume; Kulo, Abalo E.; Boukaya, G. Aboudou; Schelling, Esther; Bonfoh, Bassirou
Recent theoretical and empirical studies of the population biology of infectious diseases have helped to improve our understanding of the major factors that influence the three phases of a successful invasion, namely initial establishment, persistence in the longer term and spread to other host communities. Of central importance in all three phases is the magnitude of the basic reproductive rate
R. M. Anderson; R. M. May
Sexually transmitted diseases can pose major health problems so scientists and health agencies are very concerned about the spread of these diseases. Sexually transmitted diseases spread through a network of contacts created by the formation of sexual partnerships. In the paper, the spreading of sexually transmitted diseases on bipartite scale-free graphs, representing heterosexual and homosexual contact networks, is considered. We propose an SIS model on sexual contact networks. We analytically derive the expression for the epidemic threshold and its dependence with the ratio of female and male in finite populations. It is shown that if the basic reproduction number R0 is less than 1 then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if R0>1 then the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and there is a unique endemic equilibrium, which asymptotically attracts all nontrivial solutions. These theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R0 in terms of various model parameters. PMID:23403371
Zhang, Juping; Jin, Zhen; Chen, Yuming
BACKGROUND: Demodex gatoi is unique among demodectic mites. It possesses a distinct stubby appearance, and, instead of residing in the hair follicles, it dwells in the keratin layer of the epidermis, causing a pruritic and contagious skin disease in cats. Little is known of the occurrence of D. gatoi in Europe or control of D. gatoi infestation. CASE PRESENTATION: We
Seppo AM Saari; Kirsi H Juuti; Joanna H Palojärvi; Kirsi M Väisänen; Riitta-Liisa Rajaniemi; Leena E Saijonmaa-Koulumies
BACKGROUND: Mycoplasma agalactiae is the main cause of contagious agalactia, a serious disease of sheep and goats, which has major clinical and economic impacts. Previous studies of M. agalactiae have shown it to be unusually homogeneous and there are currently no available epidemiological techniques which enable a high degree of strain differentiation. RESULTS: We have developed variable number tandem repeat
Laura McAuliffe; Colin P Churchward; Joanna R Lawes; Guido Loria; Roger D Ayling; Robin AJ Nicholas
Summary Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a disease that causes high morbidity and mortality losses to cattle. The financial implications of these losses are of great significance to cattle owners. Control of CBPP is therefore important as a way to salvage the losses and increase the incomes of cattle owners. This study estimated the economic cost of CBPP and the
N. E. Tambi; W. O. Maina; C. Ndi
For the past decade, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has been working toward eradicating rinderpest through vaccination and intense surveillance by 2012. Because of the potential severity of a rinderpest epidemic, it is prudent to prepare for an unexpected outbreak in animal populations. There is no immunity to the disease among the livestock or wildlife in the United States (US). If rinderpest were to emerge in the US, the loss in livestock could be devastating. We predict the potential spread of rinderpest using a two-stage model for the spread of a multi-host infectious disease among agricultural animals in the US. The model incorporates large-scale interactions among US counties and the small-scale dynamics of disease spread within a county. The model epidemic was seeded in 16 locations and there was a strong dependence of the overall epidemic size on the starting location. The epidemics were classified according to overall size into small epidemics of 100 to 300 animals (failed epidemics), epidemics infecting 3,000 to 30,000 animals (medium epidemics), and the large epidemics infecting around one million beef cattle. The size of the rinderpest epidemics were directly related to the origin of the disease and whether or not the disease moved into certain key counties in high-livestock-density areas of the US. The epidemic size also depended upon response time and effectiveness of movement controls. PMID:21435236
Manore, Carrie; McMahon, Benjamin; Fair, Jeanne; Hyman, James M; Brown, Mac; Labute, Montiago
For the past decade, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has been working toward eradicating rinderpest through vaccination and intense surveillance by 2012. Because of the potential severity of a rinderpest epidemic, it is prudent to prepare for an unexpected outbreak in animal populations. There is no immunity to the disease among the livestock or wildlife in the United States (US). If rinderpest were to emerge in the US, the loss in livestock could be devastating. We predict the potential spread of rinderpest using a two-stage model for the spread of a multi-host infectious disease among agricultural animals in the US. The model incorporates large-scale interactions among US counties and the small-scale dynamics of disease spread within a county. The model epidemic was seeded in 16 locations and there was a strong dependence of the overall epidemic size on the starting location. The epidemics were classified according to overall size into small epidemics of 100 to 300 animals (failed epidemics), epidemics infecting 3 000 to 30 000 animals (medium epidemics), and the large epidemics infecting around one million beef cattle. The size of the rinderpest epidemics were directly related to the origin of the disease and whether or not the disease moved into certain key counties in high-livestock-density areas of the US. The epidemic size also depended upon response time and effectiveness of movement controls.
Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) glycoprotein E (gE) functions as an immunoglobulin G (IgG) Fc binding protein and is involved in virus spread. Previously we studied a gE mutant virus that was impaired for IgG Fc binding but intact for spread and another that was normal for both activities. To further evaluate the role of gE in spread, two additional mutant viruses were constructed by introducing linker insertion mutations either outside the IgG Fc binding domain at gE position 210 or within the IgG Fc binding domain at position 380. Both mutant viruses were impaired for spread in epidermal cells in vitro; however, the 380 mutant virus was significantly more impaired and was as defective as gE null virus. gE mutant viruses were inoculated into the murine flank to measure epidermal disease at the inoculation site, travel of virus to dorsal root ganglia, and spread of virus from ganglia back to skin to produce zosteriform lesions. Disease at the inoculation and zosteriform sites was reduced for both mutant viruses, but more so for the 380 mutant virus. Moreover, the 380 mutant virus was highly impaired in its ability to reach the ganglia, as demonstrated by virus culture and real-time quantitative PCR. The results indicate that the domain surrounding amino acid 380 is important for both spread and IgG Fc binding and suggest that this domain is a potential target for antiviral therapy or vaccines.
Saldanha, Charles E.; Lubinski, John; Martin, Claudia; Nagashunmugam, Thandavarayan; Wang, Liyang; van der Keyl, Harjeet; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Friedman, Harvey M.
Data collected during the velogenic viscerotropic Newcastle disease (VVND) epidemic that occurred in southern California from 1971 to 1973 were analyzed to determine the methods of spread of the disease. Spread between chicken flocks was extensive and due mainly to the movement of live birds and mechanical transport of virus by man, especially by vaccination and poultry service crews. Spread to exotic birds was from contact with infected imported stock. Spread to other species was most probably through contact with infected chickens. Infection persisted in commercial chicken flocks because of intensive vaccination programs, heavy traffic and contact between layer operations, and the maintenance of multi-age flocks. These foci of infection probably led to spread of the disease to areas from which VVND had been eradicated several months before. There was no evidence of significant wind-borne spread of virus between flocks. PMID:1200943
Burridge, M J; Riemann, H P; Utterback, W W
Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges "bottom up", as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated-pre- and post-PPCDAM ("Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia")-the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently experiencing low deforestation rates due to its isolation. PMID:24204776
Rosa, Isabel M D; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M
This study aimed at understanding how landscape heterogeneity influences outbreaks of contagious diseases in southern Africa. Landscape attributes influence patterns of movement and behaviour of animal hosts, virus spread and survival, as well as land use practices. A multi-agent simulation was developed to represent the spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogens between human-livestock and wildlife interfaces at the fringe of
Elise Dion; Louis VanSchalkwyk; Eric F. Lambin
The basic reproduction number, R?, is probably the most important quantity in epidemiology. It is used to measure the transmission potential during the initial phase of an epidemic. In this paper, we are specifically concerned with the quantification of the spread of a disease modeled by a Markov chain. Due to the occurrence of repeated contacts taking place between a typical infective individual and other individuals already infected before, R? overestimates the average number of secondary infections. We present two alternative measures, namely, the exact reproduction number, Re0, and the population transmission number, Rp, that overcome this difficulty and provide valuable insight. The applicability of Re0 and Rp to control of disease spread is also examined. PMID:23620082
Artalejo, J R; Lopez-Herrero, M J
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of realistic scenarios that include population heterogeneity, social structures, and mobility processes down to the individual level. The advances in the realism of epidemic description call for the explicit modeling of individual behavioral responses to the presence of disease within modeling frameworks. Here we formulate and analyze a metapopulation model that incorporates several scenarios of self-initiated behavioral changes into the mobility patterns of individuals. We find that prevalence-based travel limitations do not alter the epidemic invasion threshold. Strikingly, we observe in both synthetic and data-driven numerical simulations that when travelers decide to avoid locations with high levels of prevalence, this self-initiated behavioral change may enhance disease spreading. Our results point out that the real-time availability of information on the disease and the ensuing behavioral changes in the population may produce a negative impact on disease containment and mitigation. PMID:22355581
Meloni, Sandro; Perra, Nicola; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Moreno, Yamir; Vespignani, Alessandro
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of realistic scenarios that include population heterogeneity, social structures, and mobility processes down to the individual level. The advances in the realism of epidemic description call for the explicit modeling of individual behavioral responses to the presence of disease within modeling frameworks. Here we formulate and analyze a metapopulation model that incorporates several scenarios of self-initiated behavioral changes into the mobility patterns of individuals. We find that prevalence-based travel limitations do not alter the epidemic invasion threshold. Strikingly, we observe in both synthetic and data-driven numerical simulations that when travelers decide to avoid locations with high levels of prevalence, this self-initiated behavioral change may enhance disease spreading. Our results point out that the real-time availability of information on the disease and the ensuing behavioral changes in the population may produce a negative impact on disease containment and mitigation.
Meloni, Sandro; Perra, Nicola; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Moreno, Yamir; Vespignani, Alessandro
Linking information on a movement network with space-time data on disease incidence is one of the key challenges in infectious disease epidemiology. In this article, we propose and compare two statistical frameworks for this purpose, namely, parameter-driven (PD) and observation-driven (OD) models. Bayesian inference in PD models is done using integrated nested Laplace approximations, while OD models can be easily fitted with existing software using maximum likelihood. The predictive performance of both formulations is assessed using proper scoring rules. As a case study, the impact of cattle trade on the spatiotemporal spread of Coxiellosis in Swiss cows, 2004-2009, is finally investigated. PMID:22171626
Schrödle, Birgit; Held, Leonhard; Rue, Håvard
Objective Use GIS to illustrate and understand the association between environmental factors and spread of infectious diseases. Introduction Spatial methods are an important component of epidemiological research motivated by a strong correlation between disease spread and ecological factors (1). Our case studies examine the relationship between environmental conditions, such as climate and location, and vector distribution and abundance. Therefore, GIS can be used as a platform for integrating local environmental and meteorological variables into the analysis of disease spread, which would help in surveillance and decision making. Methods Case study 1- Lyme disease -Lyme disease is a tickborne infection caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi. The goal of this study was to analyze the association between meteorological factors and Lyme disease risk in humans in Texas. A total of 1,212 cases reported from 138 counties in Texas from Jan 2000 to Dec 2010 were analyzed. We used temperature and precipitation raster grids to generate humidity maps for Texas region. Our results indicated that there is a strong positive association between Lyme disease incidence and humidity, with western cross timbers region having a higher risk then the low plains. Case study 2- Spinach – Motivated by the recent increase in food-borne outbreaks related to fresh produce, one of the objectives for this study was to use the geospatial analysis to elucidate factors that contribute to contamination of produce at preharvest. We collected 955 spinach samples from 13 produce farms in Colorado and Texas during 2010–2011 and tested the samples for Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella contamination. The spinach contamination results were then used in conjunction with the National Resource Information (NRI) databases along with the SSURGO database to predict environmental and meteorological factors contributing to spinach contamination. Our findings would help to reduce frequency of human foodborne illnesses related to fresh produce. Case study 3- Valley fever Coccidioidomycosis or Valley Fever (VF) is a fungal zoonosis affecting humans and a variety of animal species. In this study, we used Texas Veterinary Medical Diagnostic Laboratories (TVMDL) data of all dog sera tested for coccidioidomycosis from July 1999 - December 2009. Census data on human population density for Texas were used to determine the dog population density and identify disease clusters for the 5,871 submitted dog sera over a period of 10.5 years. Both the isopleth map of the VF seropositive rates in dogs across Texas and the identified spatial and spatio-temporal clusters of the disease suggested that VF occurs in the western and southwestern part of Texas at a much higher rate than in other areas of the state (2). Since VF is not a reportable disease in TX, dogs could be used as a sentinel for human infection. Results The above studies illustrate the utility of GIS as a tool in integrating different ecological factors to understand disease occurrence and spread. The geographical and temporal patterns found in these studies provide benchmark to support disease control activities in Texas. Additionally, the identification of high-risk areas may be useful for decision makers to improve and prevent future disease spread. Conclusions Spatial epidemiological research has challenges, such as dealing with coarse level and aspatial datasets. Testing laboratories provide limited spatial information up to the zip code level due to the confidentiality concerns. Spatial analysis of such dataset prevents research at finer resolutions (Census block or block group). Despite these limitations, spatial epidemiology continues to be an invaluable field in the research and surveillance of infectious disease.
Srinath, Indumathi; Szonyi, Barbara; Esteve-Gassent, Maria; Lupiani, Blanca; Gautam, Raju; Clavijo, Alfonso; Park, Sang-shin; Ivanek-Miojevic, Renata
To provide a basis for effective foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevention measures, factors associated with local spread were investigated in this study using data of the 2010 FMD epidemic in Japan. Thirty-eight local clusters within a 500-m radius from source farms were selected. In the clusters with pig source farms, more neighboring farms were infected in a short time compared with the clusters with cattle source farms. The influence of distance and wind upon local spread did not show a significant difference between infected and noninfected neighboring farms. Large-size pig farms posed a greater risk of inducing local spread; the odds ratio with reference to small-size cattle farms was 16.73. Middle-size and large-size cattle farms had a greater risk of infection; odds ratios with reference to small-size cattle farms were 15.65 and 25.52, respectively. The present results are useful for understanding features of local spread and prioritizing farms for control measures. PMID:21945801
Hayama, Y; Muroga, N; Nishida, T; Kobayashi, S; Tsutsui, T
Globalization and increased mobility of individuals enable person-to-person transmitted infectious diseases to spread faster to distant places around the world, making good models for the spread increasingly important. We study the spatiotemporal pattern of spread in the remotely located and sparsely populated region of North Norway in various models with fixed, seasonal, and random effects. The models are applied to influenza A counts using data from positive microbiology laboratory tests as proxy for the underlying disease incidence. Human travel patterns with local air, road, and sea traffic data are incorporated as well as power law approximations thereof, both with quasi-Poisson regression and based on the adjacency structure of the relevant municipalities. We investigate model extensions using information about the proportion of positive laboratory tests, data on immigration from outside North Norway and by connecting population to the movement network. Furthermore, we perform two separate analyses for nonadults and adults as children are an important driver for influenza A. Comparisons of one-step-ahead predictions generally yield better or comparable results using power law approximations. PMID:24843881
Geilhufe, Marc; Held, Leonhard; Skrøvseth, Stein Olav; Simonsen, Gunnar S; Godtliebsen, Fred
An investigation is made into the impact of concurrent partnerships on epidemic spread. Starting from a definition of concurrency on the level of individuals, the authors define ways to quantify concurrency on the population level. An index of concurrency based on graph theoretical considerations is introduced, and the way in which it is related to the degree distribution of the contact graph is demonstrated. Then the spread of an infectious disease on a dynamic partnership network is investigated. The model is based on a stochastic process of pair formation and separation and a process of disease transmission within partnerships of susceptible and infected individuals. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the spread of the epidemic is compared for contact patterns ranging from serial monogamy to situations where individuals can have many partners simultaneously. It is found that for a fixed mean number of partners per individual the distribution of these partnerships over the population has a major influence on the speed of the epidemic in its initial phase and consequently in the number of individuals who are infected after a certain time period. PMID:8718707
Kretzschmar, M; Morris, M
A coupled method based on multi-agent model, remote sensing and GIS is described to simulate the forest disease spread. The coupled model focuses on the temporal dynamics of the Bursaphelenchus xylophilus population at the landscape scale. Each individual is modeled as an autonomous agent who behaves according to a set of rules including spreading in the landscape, feeding on Pinus
Huaguo Huang; Lei Wang; XiaoLi Zhang; YouQing Luo; Liqiong Zhao
Disease dynamics hinge on parasite transmission among hosts. However, canonical models for transmission often fit data poorly, limiting predictive ability. One solution involves building mechanistic yet general links between host behaviour and disease spread. To illustrate, we focus on the exposure component of transmission for hosts that consume their parasites, combining experiments, models and field data. Models of transmission that incorporate parasite consumption and foraging interference among hosts vastly outperformed alternatives when fit to experimental data using a zooplankton host (Daphnia dentifera) that consumes spores of a fungus (Metschnikowia bicuspidata). Once plugged into a fully dynamic model, both mechanisms inhibited epidemics overall. Foraging interference further depressed parasite invasion and prevalence at high host density, creating unimodal (hump-shaped) relationships between host density and these indices. These novel results qualitatively matched a unimodal density-prevalence relationship in natural epidemics. Ultimately, a mechanistic approach to transmission can reveal new insights into disease outbreaks. PMID:23452184
Civitello, David J; Pearsall, Susan; Duffy, Meghan A; Hall, Spencer R
Studies of between-herd contacts may provide important insight to disease transmission dynamics. By comparing the result from models with different levels of detail in the description of animal movement, we studied how factors influence the final epidemic size as well as the dynamic behaviour of an outbreak. We investigated the effect of contact heterogeneity of pig herds in Sweden due to herd size, between-herd distance and production type. Our comparative study suggests that the production-type structure is the most influential factor. Hence, our results imply that production type is the most important factor to obtain valid data for and include when modelling and analysing this system. The study also revealed that all included factors reduce the final epidemic size and also have yet more diverse effects on initial rate of disease spread. This implies that a large set of factors ought to be included to assess relevant predictions when modelling disease spread between herds. Furthermore, our results show that a more detailed model changes predictions regarding the variability in the outbreak dynamics and conclude that this is an important factor to consider in risk assessment. PMID:22112656
Lindström, Tom; Lewerin, Susanna Sternberg; Wennergren, Uno
Agent-based models (ABM) have been widely deployed in different fields for studying the collective behavior of large numbers of interacting agents. Of particular interest lately is the application of agent-based and hybrid models to epidemiology, specifically Agent-based Disease Spread Models (ABDSM). Validation (one aspect of the means to achieve dependability) of ABDSM simulation models is extremely important. It ensures that the right model has been built and lends confidence to the use of that model to inform critical decisions. In this report, we describe our preliminary efforts in ABDSM validation by using hybrid model fusion technology.
Pullum, Laura L [ORNL; Cui, Xiaohui [New York Institute of Technology (NYIT)
Understanding contact networks are important for modelling and managing the spread and control of communicable diseases in populations. This study characterizes the swine shipment network of a multi-site production system in southwestern Ontario, Canada. Data were extracted from a company's database listing swine shipments among 251 swine farms, including 20 sow, 69 nursery and 162 finishing farms, for the 2-year period of 2006 to 2007. Several network metrics were generated. The number of shipments per week between pairs of farms ranged from 1 to 6. The medians (and ranges) of out-degree were: sow 6 (1-21), nursery 8 (0-25), and finishing 0 (0-4), over the entire 2-year study period. Corresponding estimates for in-degree of nursery and finishing farms were 3 (0-9) and 3 (0-12) respectively. Outgoing and incoming infection chains (OIC and IIC), were also measured. The medians (ranges) of the monthly OIC and IIC were 0 (0-8) and 0 (0-6), respectively, with very similar measures observed for 2-week intervals. Nursery farms exhibited high measures of centrality. This indicates that they pose greater risks of disease spread in the network. Therefore, they should be given a high priority for disease prevention and control measures affecting all age groups alike. The network demonstrated scale-free and small-world topologies as observed in other livestock shipment studies. This heterogeneity in contacts among farm types and network topologies should be incorporated in simulation models to improve their validity. In conclusion, this study provided useful epidemiological information and parameters for the control and modelling of disease spread among swine farms, for the first time from Ontario, Canada. PMID:23896577
Dorjee, S; Revie, C W; Poljak, Z; McNab, W B; Sanchez, J
Airborne spread of bioaerosols in the boundary layer over a complex terrain is simulated using a Lagrangian particle model, and applied to modelling the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. Two case studies are made with study domains located in a hilly region in the northwest of the Styrian capital Graz, the second largest town in Austria. Mountainous terrain as well as inhomogeneous and time varying meteorological conditions prevent from application of so far used Gaussian dispersion models, while the proposed model can handle these realistically. In the model, trajectories of several thousands of particles are computed and the distribution of virus concentration near the ground is calculated. This allows to assess risk of infection areas with respect to animal species of interest, such as cattle, swine or sheep. Meteorological input data like wind field and other variables necessary to compute turbulence were taken from the new pre-operational version of the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model LMK ( Lokal-Modell-Kürzestfrist) running at the German weather service DWD ( Deutscher Wetterdienst). The LMK model provides meteorological parameters with a spatial resolution of about 2.8 km. To account for the spatial resolution of 400 m used by the Lagrangian particle model, the initial wind field is interpolated upon the finer grid by a mass consistent interpolation method. Case studies depict a significant influence of local wind systems on the spread of virus. Higher virus concentrations at the upwind side of the hills and marginal concentrations in the lee are well observable, as well as canalization effects by valleys. The study demonstrates that the Lagrangian particle model is an appropriate tool for risk assessment of airborne spread of virus by taking into account the realistic orographic and meteorological conditions.
Mayer, D.; Reiczigel, J.; Rubel, F.
Pine wilt disease, which can rapidly kill pines, is caused by the pine wood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. It is expanding its range in many countries in Asia and measures are being taken at the EU level to prevent its spread from\\u000a Portugal. Due to the threat to European forests, it is important to prevent additional introductions and target surveillance\\u000a to
Christelle Robinet; Nico Van Opstal; Richard Baker; Alain Roques
Contagious parthenogenesis—a process involving rare functional males produced by a parthenogenetic lineage which mate with coexisting sexual females resulting in fertile parthenogenetic offspring—is one of the most striking mechanisms responsible for the generation of new parthenogenetic lineages. Populations of the parthenogenetic diploid brine shrimp Artemia produce fully functional males in low proportions. The evolutionary role of these so-called Artemia rare males is, however, unknown. Here we investigate whether new parthenogenetic clones could be obtained in the laboratory by mating these rare males with sexual females. We assessed the survival and sex ratio of the hybrid ovoviviparous offspring from previous crosses between rare males and females from all Asiatic sexual species, carried out cross-mating experiments between F1 hybrid individuals to assess their fertility, and estimated the viability and the reproductive mode of the resulting F2 offspring. Molecular analysis confirmed the parentage of hybrid parthenogenetic F2. Our study documents the first laboratory synthesis of new parthenogenetic lineages in Artemia and supports a model for the contagious spread of parthenogenesis. Our results suggest recessive inheritance but further experiments are required to confirm the likelihood of the contagious parthenogenesis model.
Amat, Francisco; Hontoria, Francisco; Gomez, Africa
Contagious parthenogenesis-a process involving rare functional males produced by a parthenogenetic lineage which mate with coexisting sexual females resulting in fertile parthenogenetic offspring-is one of the most striking mechanisms responsible for the generation of new parthenogenetic lineages. Populations of the parthenogenetic diploid brine shrimp Artemia produce fully functional males in low proportions. The evolutionary role of these so-called Artemia rare males is, however, unknown. Here we investigate whether new parthenogenetic clones could be obtained in the laboratory by mating these rare males with sexual females. We assessed the survival and sex ratio of the hybrid ovoviviparous offspring from previous crosses between rare males and females from all Asiatic sexual species, carried out cross-mating experiments between F1 hybrid individuals to assess their fertility, and estimated the viability and the reproductive mode of the resulting F2 offspring. Molecular analysis confirmed the parentage of hybrid parthenogenetic F2. Our study documents the first laboratory synthesis of new parthenogenetic lineages in Artemia and supports a model for the contagious spread of parthenogenesis. Our results suggest recessive inheritance but further experiments are required to confirm the likelihood of the contagious parthenogenesis model. PMID:25024909
Maccari, Marta; Amat, Francisco; Hontoria, Francisco; Gómez, Africa
The entorhinal cortex has been implicated in the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease, which is characterized by changes in the tau protein and in the cleaved fragments of the amyloid precursor protein (APP). We used a high-resolution functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) variant that can map metabolic defects in patients and mouse models to address basic questions about entorhinal cortex pathophysiology. The entorhinal cortex is divided into functionally distinct regions, the medial entorhinal cortex (MEC) and the lateral entorhinal cortex (LEC), and we exploited the high-resolution capabilities of the fMRI variant to ask whether either of them was affected in patients with preclinical Alzheimer’s disease. Next, we imaged three mouse models of disease to clarify how tau and APP relate to entorhinal cortex dysfunction and to determine whether the entorhinal cortex can act as a source of dysfunction observed in other cortical areas. We found that the LEC was affected in preclinical disease, that LEC dysfunction could spread to the parietal cortex during preclinical disease and that APP expression potentiated tau toxicity in driving LEC dysfunction, thereby helping to explain regional vulnerability in the disease.
Khan, Usman A; Liu, Li; Provenzano, Frank A; Berman, Diego E; Profaci, Caterina P; Sloan, Richard; Mayeux, Richard; Duff, Karen E; Small, Scott A
Since 1927 and until recently, most models describing the spread of disease have been of compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. Recent models have utilised agent-based models and complex networks to explicitly study heterogeneous interaction patterns, but this leads to an increasing computational complexity. Compartmental models are appealing because of their simplicity, but their parameters, especially the transmission rate, are complex and depend on a number of factors, which makes it hard to predict how a change of a single environmental, demographic, or epidemiological factor will affect the population. Therefore, in this contribution we propose a middle ground, utilising crowd-behaviour research to improve compartmental models in crowded situations. We show how both the rate of infection as well as the walking speed depend on the local crowd density around an infected individual. The combined effect is that the rate of infection at a population scale has an analytically tractable non-linear dependency on crowd density. We model the spread of a hypothetical disease in a corridor and compare our new model with a typical compartmental model, which highlights the regime in which current models may not produce credible results. PMID:24798322
Goscé, Lara; Barton, David A W; Johansson, Anders
Since 1927 and until recently, most models describing the spread of disease have been of compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. Recent models have utilised agent-based models and complex networks to explicitly study heterogeneous interaction patterns, but this leads to an increasing computational complexity. Compartmental models are appealing because of their simplicity, but their parameters, especially the transmission rate, are complex and depend on a number of factors, which makes it hard to predict how a change of a single environmental, demographic, or epidemiological factor will affect the population. Therefore, in this contribution we propose a middle ground, utilising crowd-behaviour research to improve compartmental models in crowded situations. We show how both the rate of infection as well as the walking speed depend on the local crowd density around an infected individual. The combined effect is that the rate of infection at a population scale has an analytically tractable non-linear dependency on crowd density. We model the spread of a hypothetical disease in a corridor and compare our new model with a typical compartmental model, which highlights the regime in which current models may not produce credible results.
Gosce, Lara; Barton, David A. W.; Johansson, Anders
Since 1927 and until recently, most models describing the spread of disease have been of compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. Recent models have utilised agent-based models and complex networks to explicitly study heterogeneous interaction patterns, but this leads to an increasing computational complexity. Compartmental models are appealing because of their simplicity, but their parameters, especially the transmission rate, are complex and depend on a number of factors, which makes it hard to predict how a change of a single environmental, demographic, or epidemiological factor will affect the population. Therefore, in this contribution we propose a middle ground, utilising crowd-behaviour research to improve compartmental models in crowded situations. We show how both the rate of infection as well as the walking speed depend on the local crowd density around an infected individual. The combined effect is that the rate of infection at a population scale has an analytically tractable non-linear dependency on crowd density. We model the spread of a hypothetical disease in a corridor and compare our new model with a typical compartmental model, which highlights the regime in which current models may not produce credible results.
Goscé, Lara; Barton, David A. W.; Johansson, Anders
We investigate the effects of delaying the time to recovery (delayed recovery) and of nonuniform transmission on the propagation of diseases on structured populations. Through a mean-field approximation and large-scale numerical simulations, we find that postponing the transition from the infectious to the recovered states can largely reduce the epidemic threshold, therefore promoting the outbreak of epidemics. On the other hand, if we consider nonuniform transmission among individuals, the epidemic threshold increases, thus inhibiting the spreading process. When both mechanisms are at work, the latter might prevail, hence resulting in an increase of the epidemic threshold with respect to the standard case, in which both ingredients are absent. Our findings are of interest for a better understanding of how diseases propagate on structured populations and to a further design of efficient immunization strategies.
Xia, Cheng-yi; Wang, Zhen; Sanz, Joaquin; Meloni, Sandro; Moreno, Yamir
We use scale-free networks to study properties of the infected mass M of the network during a spreading process as a function of the infection probability q and the structural scaling exponent ?. We use the standard SIR model and investigate in detail the distribution of M. We find that for dense networks this function is bimodal, while for sparse networks it is a smoothly decreasing function, with the distinction between the two being a function of q. We thus recover the full crossover transition from one case to the other. This has a result that on the same network, a disease may die out immediately or persist for a considerable time, depending on the initial point where it was originated. Thus, we show that the disease evolution is significantly influenced by the structure of the underlying population.
Gallos, Lazaros K.; Argyrakis, Panos
In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model with simple law of mass action and modified Holling type II functional response has been proposed and analyzed to understand how a disease may spread among natural populations. The proposed model is a modification of the model presented by Upadhyay et al. (2008) . Existence of the equilibria and their stability analysis (linear and nonlinear) has been studied. The dynamical transitions in the model have been studied by identifying the existence of backward Hopf-bifurcations and demonstrated the period-doubling route to chaos when the death rate of predator (?1) and the growth rate of susceptible prey population (r) are treated as bifurcation parameters. Our studies show that the system exhibits deterministic chaos when some control parameters attain their critical values. Chaotic dynamics is depicted using the 2D parameter scans and bifurcation analysis. Possible implications of the results for disease eradication or its control are discussed.
Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita
Surprisingly little is known regarding the human mixing patterns relevant to the spread of close-contact infections, such as measles, influenza and meningococcal disease. This study aims to estimate the number of partnerships that individuals make, their stability and the degree to which mixing is assortative with respect to age. We defined four levels of putative at-risk events from casual (physical contact without conversation) to intimate (contact of a sexual nature), and asked university student volunteers to record details on those they contacted at these levels on three separate days. We found that intimate contacts are stable over short time periods whereas there was no evidence of repeat casual contacts with the same individuals. The contacts were increasingly assortative as intimacy increased. Such information will aid the development and parameterisation of models of close contact diseases, and may have direct use in outbreak investigations.
Edmunds, WJ; Kafatos, G; Wallinga, J; Mossong, JR
Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations.
Jennelle, Christopher S.; Henaux, Viviane; Wasserberg, Gideon; Thiagarajan, Bala; Rolley, Robert E.; Samuel, Michael D.
The spread of insect-borne animal virus diseases is influenced by a number of factors. Hosts migrate, move or are conveyed over long distances: vectors are carried on the wind for varying distances in search of hosts and breeding sites; weather and climate affect hosts and vectors through temperature, moisture and wind. As parasites of host and vector, viruses are carried by animals, birds and insects, and their spread can be correlated with the migration of hosts and the carriage of vectors on winds associated with the movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and warm winds to the north and south of the limits of the ITCZ. The virus is often transmitted from a local cycle to a migratory cycle and back again. Examples of insect-borne virus diseases and their spread are analysed. Japanese, Murray Valley, Western equine, Eastern equine and St Louis encephalitis represent viruses transmitted by mosquito—bird or pig cycles. The areas experiencing infection with these viruses can be divided into a number of zones: A, B, C, D, E and F. In zone A there is a continuous cycle of virus in host and vector throughout the year; in zone B, there is an upsurge in the cycle during the wet season, but the cycle continues during the dry season; there is movement of infected vectors between and within zones A and B on the ITCZ and the virus is introduced to zone C by infected vectors on warm winds; persistence may occur in zone C if conditions are right. In zone D, virus is introduced each year by infected vectors on warm winds and the arrival of the virus coincides with the presence of susceptible nestling birds and susceptible piglets. The disappearance of virus occurs at the time when migrating mosquitoes and birds are returning to warmer climates. The virus is introduced to zone E only on occasions every 5-10 years when conditions are suitable. Infected hosts introduced to zone F do not lead to circulation of virus, since the climate is unsuitable for vectors. Zones A, B and C correspond to endemic and zones D and E to epidemic conditions. Similar zones can be recognized for African horse sickness, bluetongue, Ibaraki disease and bovine ephemeral fever — examples of diseases transmitted in a midge-mammal cycle. In zones A and B viruses are transported by infected midges carried on the wind in association with the movement of ITCZ and undergo cycles in young animals. In these zones and in zone C there is a continual movement of midges on the warm wind between one area and another, colonizing new sites or reinforcing populations of midges already present. Virus is introduced at times into fringe areas (zones D and E) and, as there is little resistance in the host, gives rise to clinical signs of disease. In some areas there is persistence during adverse conditions; in others, the virus is carried back to the endemic zones by infected midges or vectors. Examples of viruses maintained in a mosquito/biting fly—mammal cycle are Venezuelan equine encephalitis and vesicular stomatitis. These viruses enter a migratory cycle from a local cycle and the vectors in the migratory cycle are carried over long distances on the wind. Further examples of virus spread by movement of vectors include West Nile, Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, epizootic haemorrhagic disease of deer and Akabane viruses. In devising means of control it is essential to decide the relationship of host, vector and virus and the nature of the zone in which the area to be controlled lies. Because of the continual risk of reintroduction of infected vectors, it is preferable to protect the host by dipping, spraying or by vaccination rather than attempting to eliminate the local population of insects.
Sellers, R. F.
Sexually transmitted pathogens persist in populations despite the availability of biomedical interven tions and knowledge of behavioural changes that would reduce individual-level risk. While behavioural risk factors are shared between many sexually transmitted infections, the prevalence of these diseases across different risk groups varies. Understanding this heterogeneity and identifying better control strategies depends on an improved understanding of the complex social contact networks over which pathogens spread. To date, most efforts to study the impact of sexual network structure on disease dynamics have focused on static networks. However, the interaction between the dynamics of partnership formation and dissolution and the dynamics of transmission plays a role, both in restricting the effective network accessible to the pathogen, and in modulating the transmission dynamics. We present a simple method to simulate dynamical networks of sexual partnerships. We inform the model using survey data on sexual attitudes and lifestyles, and investigate how the duration of infectiousness changes the effective contact network over which disease may spread. We then simulate several control strategies: screening, vaccination and behavioural interventions. Previous theory and research has advanced the importance of core groups for the spread and control of STD. Our work is consistent with the importance of core groups, but extends this idea to consider how the duration of infectiousness associated with a particular pathogen interacts with host behaviors to define these high risk subpopulations. Characteristics of the parts of the network accessible to the pathogen, which represent the network structure of sexual contacts from the “point of view” of the pathogen, are substantially different from those of the network as a whole. The pathogen itself plays an important role in determining this effective network structure; specifically, we find that if the pathogen’s duration of infectiousness is short, infection is more concentrated in high-activity, high-concurrency individuals even when all other factors are held constant. Widespread screening programs would be enhanced by follow-up interventions targeting higher-risk individuals, because screening shortens the expected duration of infectiousness and causes a greater relative decrease in prevalence among lower-activity than in higher-activity individuals. Even for pathogens with longer durations of infectiousness our findings suggest that targeting vaccination and behavioural interventions towards high-activity individuals provides comparable benefits to population-wide interventions.
Robinson, Katy; Cohen, Ted; Colijn, Caroline
We develop a moment closure approximation (MCA) to a network model of sexually transmitted disease (STD) spread through a steady/casual partnership network. MCA has been used previously to approximate static, regular lattices, whereas application to dynamic, irregular networks is a new endeavour, and application to sociologically-motivated network models has not been attempted. Our goals are 1). to investigate issues relating to the application of moment closure approximations to dynamic and irregular networks, and 2). to understand the impact of concurrent casual partnerships on STD transmission through a population of predominantly steady monogamous partnerships. We are able to derive a moment closure approximation for a dynamic irregular network representing sexual partnership dynamics, however, we are forced to use a triple approximation due to the large error of the standard pair approximation. This example underscores the importance of doing error analysis for moment closure approximations. We also find that a small number of casual partnerships drastically increases the prevalence and rate of spread of the epidemic. Finally, although the approximation is derived for a specific network model, we can recover approximations to a broad range of network models simply by varying model parameters which control the structure of the dynamic network. Thus our moment closure approximation is very flexible in the kinds of network models it can approximate. PMID:12424529
Bauch, C T
We present a study of the continuous-time equations governing the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible model on heterogeneous metapopulations. These equations have been recently proposed as an alternative formulation for the spread of infectious diseases in metapopulations in a continuous-time framework. Individual-based Monte Carlo simulations of epidemic spread in uncorrelated networks are also performed revealing a good agreement with analytical predictions under the assumption of simultaneous transmission or recovery and migration processes.
Juher, David; Ripoll, Jordi; Saldaña, Joan
The sustained transmission and spread of environmentally mediated infectious diseases is governed in part by the dispersal of parasites, disease vectors and intermediate hosts between sites of transmission. Functional geospatial models can be used to quantify and predict the degree to which environmental features facilitate or limit connectivity between target populations, yet typical models are limited in their geographical and analytical approach, providing simplistic, global measures of connectivity and lacking methods to assess the epidemiological implications of fine-scale heterogeneous landscapes. Here, functional spatial models are applied to problems of surveillance and control of the parasitic blood fluke Schistosoma japonicum and its intermediate snail host Oncomelania haupensis in western China. We advance functional connectivity methods by providing an analytical framework to (i) identify nodes of transmission where the degree of connectedness to other villages, and thus the potential for disease spread, is higher than is estimated using Euclidean distance alone and (ii) (re)organize transmission sites into disease surveillance units based on second-order relationships among nodes using non-Euclidean distance measures, termed effective geographical distance (EGD). Functional environmental models are parametrized using ecological information on the target organisms, and pair-wise distributions of inter-node EGD are estimated. A Monte Carlo rank product analysis is presented to identify nearby nodes under alternative distance models. Nodes are then iteratively embedded into EGD space and clustered using a k-means algorithm to group villages into ecologically meaningful surveillance groups. A consensus clustering approach is taken to derive the most stable cluster structure. The results indicate that novel relationships between nodes are revealed when non-Euclidean, ecologically determined distance measures are used to quantify connectivity in heterogeneous landscapes. These connections are not evident when analysing nodes in Euclidean space, and thus surveillance and control activities planned using Euclidean distance measures may be suboptimal. The methods developed here provide a quantitative framework for assessing the effectiveness of ecologically grounded surveillance systems and of control and prevention strategies for environmentally mediated diseases. PMID:20164085
Remais, Justin; Akullian, Adam; Ding, Lu; Seto, Edmund
During the past decade the British livestock industry has suffered from several major pathogen outbreaks, and a variety of regulatory and disease control measures have been applied to the movement of livestock with the express aim of mitigating the spread of infection. The Rapid Analysis and Detection of Animal-related Risks (RADAR) project, which has been collecting data on the movement of cattle since 1998, provides a relatively comprehensive record of how these policies have influenced the movement of cattle between animal holdings, markets, and slaughterhouses in Britain. Many previous studies have focused on the properties of the network that can be derived from these movements – treating farms as nodes and movements as directed (and potentially weighted) edges in the network. However, of far greater importance is how these policy changes have influenced the potential spread of infectious diseases. Here we use a stochastic fully individual-based model of cattle in Britain to assess how the epidemic potential has varied from 2000 to 2009 as the pattern of movements has changed in response to legislation and market forces. Our simulations show that the majority of policy changes lead to significant decreases in the epidemic potential (measured in multiple ways), but that this potential then increases through time as cattle farmers modify their behaviour in response. Our results suggest that the cattle industry is likely to experience boom-bust dynamics, with the actions that farmers take during epidemic-free periods to maximise their profitability likely to increase the potential for large-scale epidemics to occur.
Vernon, Matthew C.; Keeling, Matt J.
Chytridiomycosis in amphibians, and mucormycosis in the platypus Ornithorhynchus anatinus and amphibians, are serious fungal diseases affecting these aquatic taxa. In Tasmania, Australia, the fungi that cause these diseases overlap in range along with Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc), an invasive fungal plant pathogen. To identify disinfectants that may be useful to reduce anthropogenic spread of these fungi to uninfected wilderness areas, for example by bush walkers and forestry or fire-fighting operations, we tested 3 disinfectants and a fire-fighting foam against Mucor amphibiorum (Ma) and tested 1 disinfectant and the foam against Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Combining the present study with previous work we found Bd was more susceptible to all 4 chemicals than Ma. Phytoclean, a disinfectant used at 2 to 10% for 30 s to control Pc, killed cultures of Bd at 0.075% and Ma at 5%, when also applied for 30 s. The disinfectant F10sc was not effective against Ma at standard exposures, but previous work shows Bd is killed at 0.03% with a 1 min exposure. Path-X is effective against Bd at 0.001% with a 30 s exposure and killed Ma at 1% with a 5 min exposure. Forexpan S, a foam added to water at 0.1 to 1% to control forest fires, killed Bd but not Ma when used at 1% for 2 min. Therefore, Phytoclean and Path-X have broader efficacy, although Path-X has not been trialled against Pc. Interestingly a positive mating strain of Ma (from a platypus) was more resistant to disinfectants than a negative strain (from a frog). Current protocols against Pc that involve high concentrations (10%) of Phytoclean are likely to reduce spread of pathogenic wildlife fungi, which is important for protecting biodiversity. PMID:22691980
Webb, Rebecca; Philips, Annie; Speare, Rick; Connolly, Joanne; Berger, Lee
Contagious agalactia of small ruminants is a syndrome which principally affects the mammary glands, joints and eyes. The main causal agents are Mycoplasma agalactiae in sheep, and M. agalactiae, M. mycoides subsp. mycoides large colony type and M. capricolum subsp. capricolum in goats. In addition, M. putrefaciens can produce a similar clinical picture, particularly in goats. Contagious agalactia occurs on all five continents and is often enzootic. The evolution of the infection tends to be chronic in affected animals and herds. Symptomless shedding of mycoplasmas, mainly in the milk, may persist for a long time. These insidious infections, associated with carriage in the ears of healthy animals, are difficult to diagnose and to control. The main mode of transmission between flocks is related to the sale of carrier animals and contact during transhumance, whereas transmission within a flock occurs through contact, suckling and milking. This review discusses the clinical features, epidemiology, treatment, prevention and control of the disease. PMID:9567311
Bergonier, D; Berthelot, X; Poumarat, F
Sudden Oak Death is a new and virulent disease affecting hardwood forests in coastal California. The spatial–temporal dynamics of oak mortality at the landscape scale are crucial indicators of disease progression. Modeling disease spread requires accurate mapping of the dynamic pattern of oak mortality in time through multi-temporal image analysis. Traditional mapping approaches using per-pixel, single-date image classifications have not
Desheng Liu; Maggi Kelly; Peng Gong
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an infectious prion disease that affects mule deer, along with other Cervids. It is a slow-developing, fatal disease which is rare in the free-ranging deer population of Utah. We present a sex-structured, spatial model for the spread of CWD over heterogeneous landscapes, incorporating both horizontal and environmental transmission pathways. To connect the local movement of deer to the regional spread of CWD, we use ecological diffusion with motility coefficients estimated from mule deer movement data. Ecological diffusion allows for aggregation of populations in desirable habitats and therefore allows for an interaction between density dependent disease transmission and landscape structure. The major innovation presented is use of homogenization to accelerate simulations of disease spread in southeastern Utah, from the La Sal Mountains near Moab to the Abajo Mountains near Monticello. The homogenized model provides accuracy while maintaining fidelity to small-scale habitat effects on deer distribution, including differential aggregation in land cover types with high residence times, with errors comparable to the order parameter measuring separation of small and large scales ([Formula: see text] in this case). We use the averaged coefficients from the homogenized model to explore asymptotic invasion speed and the impact of current population size on disease spread in southeastern Utah. PMID:23846241
Garlick, Martha J; Powell, James A; Hooten, Mevin B; MacFarlane, Leslie R
All great ape species are endangered, and infectious diseases are thought to pose a particular threat to their survival. As great ape species vary substantially in social organisation and gregariousness, there are likely to be differences in susceptibility to disease types and spread. Understanding the relation between social variables and disease is therefore crucial for implementing effective conservation measures. Here, we simulate the transmission of a range of diseases in a population of orang-utans in Sabangau Forest (Central Kalimantan) and a community of chimpanzees in Budongo Forest (Uganda), by systematically varying transmission likelihood and probability of subsequent recovery. Both species have fission-fusion social systems, but differ considerably in their level of gregariousness. We used long-term behavioural data to create networks of association patterns on which the spread of different diseases was simulated. We found that chimpanzees were generally far more susceptible to the spread of diseases than orang-utans. When simulating different diseases that varied widely in their probability of transmission and recovery, it was found that the chimpanzee community was widely and strongly affected, while in orang-utans even highly infectious diseases had limited spread. Furthermore, when comparing the observed association network with a mean-field network (equal contact probability between group members), we found no major difference in simulated disease spread, suggesting that patterns of social bonding in orang-utans are not an important determinant of susceptibility to disease. In chimpanzees, the predicted size of the epidemic was smaller on the actual association network than on the mean-field network, indicating that patterns of social bonding have important effects on susceptibility to disease. We conclude that social networks are a potentially powerful tool to model the risk of disease transmission in great apes, and that chimpanzees are particularly threatened by infectious disease outbreaks as a result of their social structure. PMID:24740263
Carne, Charlotte; Semple, Stuart; Morrogh-Bernard, Helen; Zuberbühler, Klaus; Lehmann, Julia
All great ape species are endangered, and infectious diseases are thought to pose a particular threat to their survival. As great ape species vary substantially in social organisation and gregariousness, there are likely to be differences in susceptibility to disease types and spread. Understanding the relation between social variables and disease is therefore crucial for implementing effective conservation measures. Here, we simulate the transmission of a range of diseases in a population of orang-utans in Sabangau Forest (Central Kalimantan) and a community of chimpanzees in Budongo Forest (Uganda), by systematically varying transmission likelihood and probability of subsequent recovery. Both species have fission-fusion social systems, but differ considerably in their level of gregariousness. We used long-term behavioural data to create networks of association patterns on which the spread of different diseases was simulated. We found that chimpanzees were generally far more susceptible to the spread of diseases than orang-utans. When simulating different diseases that varied widely in their probability of transmission and recovery, it was found that the chimpanzee community was widely and strongly affected, while in orang-utans even highly infectious diseases had limited spread. Furthermore, when comparing the observed association network with a mean-field network (equal contact probability between group members), we found no major difference in simulated disease spread, suggesting that patterns of social bonding in orang-utans are not an important determinant of susceptibility to disease. In chimpanzees, the predicted size of the epidemic was smaller on the actual association network than on the mean-field network, indicating that patterns of social bonding have important effects on susceptibility to disease. We conclude that social networks are a potentially powerful tool to model the risk of disease transmission in great apes, and that chimpanzees are particularly threatened by infectious disease outbreaks as a result of their social structure.
Carne, Charlotte; Semple, Stuart; Morrogh-Bernard, Helen; Zuberbuhler, Klaus; Lehmann, Julia
We investigate what structural aspects of a collection of twelve empirical temporal networks of human contacts are important to disease spreading. We scan the entire parameter spaces of the two canonical models of infectious disease epidemiology—the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) and Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) models. The results from these simulations are compared to reference data where we eliminate structures in the interevent intervals, the time to the first contact in the data, or the time from the last contact to the end of the sampling. The picture we find is that the birth and death of links, and the total number of contacts over a link, are essential to predict outbreaks. On the other hand, the exact times of contacts between the beginning and end, or the interevent interval distribution, do not matter much. In other words, a simplified picture of these empirical data sets that suffices for epidemiological purposes is that links are born, is active with some intensity, and die.
Holme, Petter; Liljeros, Fredrik
We investigate what structural aspects of a collection of twelve empirical temporal networks of human contacts are important to disease spreading. We scan the entire parameter spaces of the two canonical models of infectious disease epidemiology-the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) and Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) models. The results from these simulations are compared to reference data where we eliminate structures in the interevent intervals, the time to the first contact in the data, or the time from the last contact to the end of the sampling. The picture we find is that the birth and death of links, and the total number of contacts over a link, are essential to predict outbreaks. On the other hand, the exact times of contacts between the beginning and end, or the interevent interval distribution, do not matter much. In other words, a simplified picture of these empirical data sets that suffices for epidemiological purposes is that links are born, is active with some intensity, and die. PMID:24851942
Holme, Petter; Liljeros, Fredrik
The adaptive immune system should prevent cancer cells passing from one individual to another, in much the same way that it protects against pathogens. However, in rare cases cancer cells do not die within a single individual, but successfully pass between individuals, escaping the adaptive immune response and becoming a contagious cancer. There are two naturally occurring contagious cancers, Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), found in Tasmanian devils, and Canine Transmissible Venereal Tumour (CTVT), found in dogs. Despite sharing an ability to pass as allografts, these cancers have a very different impact on their hosts. While DFTD causes 100% mortality among infected devils and has had a devastating impact on the devil population, CTVT co-exists with its host in a manner that does not usually cause death of the dog. Although immune evasion strategies for CTVT have been defined, why DFTD is not rejected as an allograft is not understood. We have made progress in revealing mechanisms of immune evasion for DFTD both in vitro and in vivo, and here we compare how DFTD and CTVT interact with their respective hosts and avoid rejection. Our findings highlight factors that may be important for the evolution of contagious cancers and cancer more generally. Perhaps most importantly, this work has opened up important areas for future research, including the effect of epigenetic factors on immune escape mechanisms and the basis of a vaccine strategy that may protect Tasmanian devils against DFTD.
Siddle, Hannah V.; Kaufman, Jim
The adaptive immune system should prevent cancer cells passing from one individual to another, in much the same way that it protects against pathogens. However, in rare cases cancer cells do not die within a single individual, but successfully pass between individuals, escaping the adaptive immune response and becoming a contagious cancer. There are two naturally occurring contagious cancers, Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), found in Tasmanian devils, and Canine Transmissible Venereal Tumour (CTVT), found in dogs. Despite sharing an ability to pass as allografts, these cancers have a very different impact on their hosts. While DFTD causes 100% mortality among infected devils and has had a devastating impact on the devil population, CTVT co-exists with its host in a manner that does not usually cause death of the dog. Although immune evasion strategies for CTVT have been defined, why DFTD is not rejected as an allograft is not understood. We have made progress in revealing mechanisms of immune evasion for DFTD both in vitro and in vivo, and here we compare how DFTD and CTVT interact with their respective hosts and avoid rejection. Our findings highlight factors that may be important for the evolution of contagious cancers and cancer more generally. Perhaps most importantly, this work has opened up important areas for future research, including the effect of epigenetic factors on immune escape mechanisms and the basis of a vaccine strategy that may protect Tasmanian devils against DFTD. PMID:23200636
Siddle, Hannah V; Kaufman, Jim
Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to colonize higher elevation lakes, only to be followed shortly by the emergence of fungal disease in the new habitats.
Tucker, Compton J.; Yager, Karina; Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.
Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global–scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global–scale networks.
Garcia-Herranz, Manuel; Moro, Esteban; Cebrian, Manuel; Christakis, Nicholas A.; Fowler, James H.
Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global-scale networks. PMID:24718030
Garcia-Herranz, Manuel; Moro, Esteban; Cebrian, Manuel; Christakis, Nicholas A; Fowler, James H
Summary This study is the first to report the disturbance of contagious yawning in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Twenty-four children with ASD, as well as 25 age- matched typically developing (TD) children, observed video clips of either yawning or control mouth movements. Yawning video clips elicited more yawns in TD children than in children with ASD, but the
Atsushi Senju; Makiko Maeda; Yukiko Kikuchi; Toshikazu Hasegawa; Yoshikuni Tojo; Hiroo Osanai
This paper tests the argument that outbreaks of protest occur contagiously over time against the alternative expectation that protest occurs randomly over time. Using univariate ARIMA models, it analyzes a time series of protest in the postwar United Kingdom, consisting of the number of day\\/locales of protest events. The (logged) data are probed for three periods of temporal aggregation: annual,
A coupled method based on multi-agent model, remote sensing and GIS is described to simulate the forest disease spread. The coupled model focuses on the temporal dynamics of the Bursaphelenchus xylophilus population at the landscape scale. Each individual is modeled as an autonomous agent who behaves according to a set of rules including spreading in the landscape, feeding on Pinus massoniana, sheltering in forest edges and dying, constrained by terrain, land cover and other variables. The model parameters are derived from remote sensing data and field measurements. Ten factors, including damage degree of Pinus Massoniana, altitude and slope, are helped to build the transfer rules. The main outputs are the dynamic disease distribution maps and survived pine population. Our method is applied and validated in DingHai distinct, Zhou Shan city of Zhejiang Province. Three Landsat TM images from the year 1991 to 2006 are used for the pine information extraction. The extracted pine distribution map is used to compare with the simulated surviving pine map. The results show that the coupled model can produce reasonable results and be used as a virtual experiment tool. However, it is difficult to simulate the human activities to help or prevent disease spread and the long fly behavior of insect vectors. Therefore, there still exists some difference between the simulated results and the real data. At the next step, those factors will be considered.
Huang, Huaguo; Wang, Lei; Zhang, XiaoLi; Luo, YouQing; Zhao, Liqiong
Advanced melanoma cells, characterized by resistance to chemotherapy, have been shown to be highly sensitive to oncolysis by Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In the present study, we investigated the capacity of NDV to specifically infect and spread into solid tissues of human melanoma and lung carcinoma, in vivo and ex vivo. For this purpose a new model of SCID-beige mice implanted with human melanoma was developed. Surprisingly, the replication competent NDV-MTH and the attenuated, single-cycle replication NDV-HUJ strains, demonstrated a similar oncolytic activity in the melanoma-implanted mice. Further, ex vivo analysis, using organ cultures derived from the melanoma tissues indicated a limited spread of the two NDV strains in the tissue. Extracellular matrix (ECM) molecules, notably heparin sulfate and collagen, were found to limit viral spread in the tissue. This observation was validated with yet another solid tumour of human lung carcinoma. Taken together, the results indicate that the ECM acts as a barrier to virus spread within solid tumour tissues and that this restriction must be overcome to achieve effective oncolysis with NDV. PMID:22622327
Yaacov, Barak; Lazar, Itay; Tayeb, Shay; Frank, Sivan; Izhar, Uzi; Lotem, Michal; Perlman, Riki; Ben-Yehuda, Dina; Zakay-Rones, Zichria; Panet, Amos
Based on results of ecological and epidemiological studies, occurrence and spread of certain diseases are more fully understood. Cholera is a major waterborne disease, that is relatively easily treatable and clearly preventable, yet tens of thousands die each year worldwide. A dose dependent disease, the infectious dose can vary from 103-106, depending on health status of the victim. Historically, cholera has been shown to spread from person to person. Furthermore, the disease is caused predominantly via ingestion of contaminated water and most of the outbreaks that have been recorded worldwide originated in a coastal region. Using appropriate detection methods, Vibrio cholerae can be isolated from samples collected from ponds, rivers, estuaries, and coastal waters globally. The populations of V. cholerae may vary in numbers during different seasons of the year. It is important to have a clear understanding of the distribution of the causative agent in the environment as such information can assist public health officials in taking action to prevent outbreaks of cholera. Thus an effective monitoring program is critical, particularly in light of climate change with temperature extremes more likely to be occurring. Based on a predictive model and results of ground truth data, temperature has been found to be a factor in the increase of V. cholerae in the environment. Correlation was observed with occurrence of cholera and both temperature and salinity. More recent research indicates additional factors need to be considered in predicting cholera epidemics, including the hydrology and disease dynamics.
Huq, A.; Colwell, R.
Background The systemic form of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD), also known as postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) was initially detected in the early 1990s. Starting in 2004, the Canadian swine industry experienced considerable losses due to PCVAD, concurrent with a shift in genotype of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2). Objectives of the current study were to explore spatial characteristics of self-reported PCVAD distribution in Ontario between 2004 and 2008, and to investigate the existence and nature of local spread. Results The study included 278 swine herds from a large disease-monitoring project that included porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus-positive herds identified by the diagnostic laboratory, and PRRS virus-negative herds directly from the target population. Herds were included if they had growing pigs present on-site and available geographical coordinates for the sampling site. Furthermore, herds were defined as PCVAD-positive if a producer reported an outbreak of circovirus associated disease, or as PCVAD-negative if no outbreak was noted. Spatial trend was investigated using generalized additive models and time to PCVAD outbreak in a herd using Cox's proportional hazard model; spatial and spatio-temporal clustering was explored using K-functions; and location of most likely spatial and spatio-temporal clusters was investigated using scan statistics. Over the study period, the risk of reporting a PCVAD-positive herd tended to be higher in the eastern part of the province after adjustment for herd PRRS status (P = 0.05). This was partly confirmed for spread (Partial P < 0.01). Local spread also appeared to exist, as suggested by the tentative (P = 0.06) existence of spatio-temporal clustering of PCVAD and detection of a spatio-temporal cluster (P = 0.04). Conclusions In Ontario, PCVAD has shown a general trend, spreading from east-to-west. We interpret the existence of spatio-temporal clustering as evidence of spatio-temporal aggregation of PCVAD-positive cases above expectations and, together with the existence of spatio-temporal and spatial clusters, as suggestive of apparent local spread of PCVAD. Clustering was detected at small spatial and temporal scales. Other patterns of spread could not be detected; however, survival rates in discrete Ontario zones, as well as a lack of a clear spatial pattern in the most likely spatio-temporal clusters, suggest other between-herd transmission mechanisms.
Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas’ disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control.
Pelosse, Perrine; Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M.; Ginoux, Marine; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Gourbiere, Sebastien; Menu, Frederic
Emerging diseases (ED) can have devastating effects on agriculture. Consequently, agricultural insurance for ED can develop if basic insurability criteria are met, including the capability to estimate the severity of ED outbreaks with associated uncertainty. The U.S. farm-raised channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) industry was used to evaluate the feasibility of using a disease spread simulation modeling framework to estimate the potential losses from new ED for agricultural insurance purposes. Two stochastic models were used to simulate the spread of ED between and within channel catfish ponds in Mississippi (MS) under high, medium, and low disease impact scenarios. The mean (95% prediction interval (PI)) proportion of ponds infected within disease-impacted farms was 7.6% (3.8%, 22.8%), 24.5% (3.8%, 72.0%), and 45.6% (4.0%, 92.3%), and the mean (95% PI) proportion of fish mortalities in ponds affected by the disease was 9.8% (1.4%, 26.7%), 49.2% (4.7%, 60.7%), and 88.3% (85.9%, 90.5%) for the low, medium, and high impact scenarios, respectively. The farm-level mortality losses from an ED were up to 40.3% of the total farm inventory and can be used for insurance premium rate development. Disease spread modeling provides a systematic way to organize the current knowledge on the ED perils and, ultimately, use this information to help develop actuarially sound agricultural insurance policies and premiums. However, the estimates obtained will include a large amount of uncertainty driven by the stochastic nature of disease outbreaks, by the uncertainty in the frequency of future ED occurrences, and by the often sparse data available from past outbreaks. PMID:23560798
Zagmutt, Francisco J; Sempier, Stephen H; Hanson, Terril R
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), an Office In- ternational des Epizooties-listed disease, is caused by Myco- plasma mycoides subsp. mycoides small-colony type (MmmSC). In Africa the disease is widespread and threatens to extend into areas where it is currently not found. Control of the disease is difficult, but Botswana, Portugal, and Italy have rel- atively recently eradicated the disease. These successful
R. D. Ayling; S. Bisgaard-Frantzen; J. B. March; K. Godinho; R. A. J. Nicholas
Newborns cry in response to another newborn cry and researchers agree that these are the very early signs of empathy development. Yet, little is known about the development of these affect sharing reactions in infancy, beyond the very first few days after birth. The aim of this study is to investigate the presence of contagious cry phenomenon in infancy. Infants aged 1-, 3-, 6-, and 9-month-old were presented with the sound of another infant cry vocalizations. Their emotional reactions were recorded in terms of vocal (presence of vocal distress, latency, and intensity) and facial (anger and sadness) expressions of emotions. Results show that during the presentation of a pain cry sound, 1, 3, 6, and 9 months old infants manifest increased vocal and facial expressions of distress. These affect sharing reactions do not decrease with age. Both boys and girls manifest similar levels of contagious crying reactions. The results are discussed in terms of early empathy development. PMID:20362341
Geangu, Elena; Benga, Oana; Stahl, Daniel; Striano, Tricia
Contagious agalactia of small ruminants is a syndrome which affects mainly the mammary glands, joints and eyes. The principal causal agents are Mycoplasma agalactiae in sheep and M. agalactiae, M. mycoides subsp. mycoides large colony type and M. capricolum subsp. capricolum in goats. In addition, M. putrefaciens can produce a similar clinical picture, particularly in goats. Contagious agalactia occurs on all five continents and is often enzootic. These infections are chronic in animals and in flocks. Symptomless shedding of mycoplasmas, mainly in the milk, may persist for a long time. Associated with carriage in the ears of healthy animals, these insidious infections are difficult to diagnose and control. The sale of carrier animals and contact during transhumance are the main modes of transmission between flocks, while transmission within a flock occurs through contact, suckling and milking. This review discusses clinical features, epidemiology, treatment, prevention and control. PMID:9527414
Bergonier, D; Poumarat, F
"Contagious itch" has been anecdotally reported and recently confirmed in a controlled setting in humans. Here, we investigated in adult rhesus macaques whether 'contagious itch' occurs spontaneously in monkeys. In a first experiment, the latency to scratch following cage-mate scratching was observed in pair-housed adult rhesus macaques. Scratching increased within the first 60 s and subsequently declined. In a second experiment, scratching behavior was recorded for individually caged adult rhesus macaques which where shown videos of monkeys scratching, but also neutral stimuli. A greater frequency of scratching was observed when monkeys viewed a video sequence of another monkey scratching as well as during the neutral stimulus immediately following the monkey scratching segment. In conclusion, viewing other monkeys scratching significantly increased scratching behavior in adult rhesus macaques. PMID:22735614
Feneran, Ashley N; O'Donnell, Russell; Press, Ashley; Yosipovitch, Gil; Cline, Mark; Dugan, Greg; Papoiu, Alexandru D P; Nattkemper, Leigh A; Chan, Yiong Huak; Shively, Carol A
Trichophytia infection, paraphrased cuddly toy mycosis, occurs primarily in prepubertal children, occasionally in infants and adults. The presented case shows the highly contagious infection of four family members with Trichophyton mentagrophytes. Effective treatment requires detailed diagnostic: identifying the dermatophyte, finding the infection source, treating the infection carriers. Tinea must be treated systemically and topically because of infectivity and ignitability. Systemic terbinafine or fluconazole treatment and topical fixed combination isoconazole nitrate/diflucortolone valerate are recommended. PMID:23574024
Czaika, Viktor Alexander; Lam, Phi-Anh
Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), Parkinson's disease (PD) and multiple system atrophy are characterized by the deposition of disease-associated ?-synuclein. In the present study we 1) examined the molecular specificity of the novel anti-?-synuclein 5G4 antibody; 2) evaluated immunoreactivity patterns and their correlation in human brain tissue with micro- and astrogliosis in 57 cases with PD or DLB; and 3) performed a systematic immunoelectron microscopical mapping of subcellular localizations. 5G4 strongly binds to the high molecular weight fraction of ?-sheet rich oligomers, while no binding to primarily disordered oligomers or monomers was observed. We show novel localizations of disease-associated ?-synuclein including perivascular macrophages, ependyma and cranial nerves. ?-Synuclein immunoreactive neuropil dots and thin threads associate more with glial reaction than Lewy bodies alone. Astrocytic ?-synuclein is an important component of the pathology. Furthermore, we document ultrastructurally the pathway of processing of disease-associated ?-synuclein within neurons and astroglial cells. Interaction of mitochondria and disease-associated ?-synuclein plays a key role in the molecular-structural cytopathogenesis of disorders with Lewy bodies. We conclude that 1) the 5G4 antibody has strong selectivity for ?-sheet rich ?-synuclein oligomers; 2) Lewy bodies themselves are not the most relevant morphological substrate that evokes tissue lesioning; 3) both neurons and astrocytes internalize disease-associated ?-synuclein in the human brain, suggesting prion-like cell-to-cell spread of ?-synuclein by uptake from surrounding structures, as shown previously in experimental observations. PMID:24878508
Kovacs, Gabor G; Breydo, Leonid; Green, Ryan; Kis, Viktor; Puska, Gina; L?rincz, Péter; Perju-Dumbrava, Laura; Giera, Regina; Pirker, Walter; Lutz, Mirjam; Lachmann, Ingolf; Budka, Herbert; Uversky, Vladimir N; Molnár, Kinga; László, Lajos
The effects of the mean infection (incubation plus infectious) period on the dynamics of infectious diseases are well understood. We examine the dynamics and persistence of epidemics when the distribution of the infection period also is modelled, using the well-documented childhood disease measles as a test case. We pay particular attention to the differences between exponentially distributed and constant periods.
M. J. Keeling; B. T. Grenfell
We consider the family of edge-based compartmental models for epidemic spread developed in Miller et al. (J R Soc Interface 9(70):890-906, 2012). These models allow for a range of complex behaviors, and in particular allow us to explicitly incorporate duration of a contact into our mathematical models. Our focus here is to identify conditions under which simpler models may be substituted for more detailed models, and in so doing we define a hierarchy of epidemic models. In particular we provide conditions under which it is appropriate to use the standard mass action SIR model, and we show what happens when these conditions fail. Using our hierarchy, we provide a procedure leading to the choice of the appropriate model for a given population. Our result about the convergence of models to the mass action model gives clear, rigorous conditions under which the mass action model is accurate. PMID:22911242
Miller, Joel C; Volz, Erik M
We conducted a slow event-related fMRI experiment with naïve subjects’ passively viewing yawn and various other control videos along with correlative behavioral testing. Specifically associated with the viewing of the contagious yawn was an area of activation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. These findings suggest a role for the prefrontal cortex in the processing of contagious yawning, while demonstrating a unique automaticity in the processing of contagious motor programs which take place independently of mirror neuron networks.
Nahab, Fatta B.; Hattori, Noriaki; Saad, Ziad S.; Hallett, Mark
We conducted a slow event-related fMRI experiment with naïve subjects' passively viewing yawn and various other control videos along with correlative behavioral testing. Specifically associated with the viewing of the contagious yawn was an area of activation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. These findings suggest a role for the prefrontal cortex in the processing of contagious yawning, while demonstrating a unique automaticity in the processing of contagious motor programs which take place independently of mirror neuron networks. PMID:18937281
Nahab, Fatta B; Hattori, Noriaki; Saad, Ziad S; Hallett, Mark
The estimation of the prevalence of a class of diseases of the genitourinary system (ICD-10) of the population in the bioclimatic zones of the Primorsky Krai, with taking into account the environmental situation has been performed. The study of the prevalence of diseases of the genitourinary system was carried out with the use of the classical method of data analysis--descriptive statistics. To determine the impact of water quality correlation and regression analysis of the statistical software package SPP has been applied. The study revealed that the diseases of the genitourinary system occupy in the structure of ecology-dependent morbidity in adults--14.9%, in adolescents--13.1% and in children--5.2%, respectively. During the period of 2000-2011 there is noted a trend of the growth of the level of pathology of the genitourinary system. Over the past 5 years, the number of uronefrological patients doubled. Using the a chi-square test for independence, we found that there is a statistically significant correlation (p < or = 0.001) between the level of diseases of the genitourinary system, the bio-climatic zones and zones of ecological situation in all age groups. The use of regression analysis (multiple regression equation) allowed to determine the main parameters of the water module affecting the rate of spread of diseases of the genitourinary system in different bioclimatic zones. The prevalence level of diseases of the genitourinary system in each age group and bioclimatic zone is affected by a certain combination of parameters of the chemical composition of drinking water. The priority of them are by microbial number, Cl-, Fe sum, NO3-, HCO3-, PH, Mg2+, Ca2+. Ranking of the territory in terms of morbidity permitted to determine the problematic situation in the administrative bodies that was taken into account in the development of the program on the prevention of the ecology-dependent diseases of the genitourinary system. PMID:24340921
Kiku, P F; Gorborukova, T V; Anan'ev, V Iu
In central coastal California, a recently discovered pathogen Phytophthora ramorum has been killing hundreds of thousands of tanoak, coast live oak, and black oak trees. This forest disease referred to as Sudden Oak Death (SOD) has attracted attention from the public, government and academia. Monitoring the disease distribution and understanding the disease mechanisms are important for disease control and management. In this dissertation, I developed a spatio-temporal approach to mapping and modeling the SOD spread in California using remote sensing and spatial statistics. This dissertation seeks to quantify the disease spread over a range of scales using multi-temporal high spatial resolution airborne imagery. The work has three components: multi-temporal image registration, spatio-temporal classification, and spatial pattern analysis of disease dynamics. First, I developed an automated algorithm to register multi-temporal airborne images, which are characterized by complex geometric distortion with respect to one another. In this algorithm, large amounts of evenly distributed control points on regular grids were first derived from area-based methods. The control points with outliers removed were then applied to local transformation models. The results showed that the combination of area-based control point extraction with local transformation models is successful for geometric registration of airborne images with complex local distortion. Second, I developed a spatio-temporal classification algorithm to map mortality patterns from the accurately co-registered multi-temporal images. This algorithm is based on Markov Random Fields and Support Vector Machines and explicitly integrates spectral, spatial and temporal information in multi-temporal high-spatial resolution images. The results indicated that the algorithm achieved significant improvements over non-contextual classifications. Third, I applied both univariate and multivariate spatial point pattern analysis methods to quantify the mortality patterns using the mapped point patterns. The results from the univariate point pattern analysis showed that all the SOD point patterns are significantly clustered at different scales and spatial extents, revealing that the underlying mortality process consists of both first order trend and second order clustering. The results from the multivariate point pattern analysis showed that there exist strong attractions within multi-temporal SOD point patterns and between SOD and its major foliar host, California bay.
Temperature increases associated with global climate change have led to concerns that infectious diseases common in warmer tropical and subtropical climates may become more common in warming middle altitudes. In this problem-based learning module, learners investigate the connections between disease and climate change. Additional resources and activities are also provided. This module was developed to be used in the Earth System Science Education Alliance (ESSEA) courses for middle and high school teachers and is also available to teachers to adapt for general classroom use.
The occurrence of ectotherm disease vectors outside of their previous distribution area and the emergence of vector-borne diseases can be increasingly observed at a global scale and are accompanied by a growing number of studies which investigate the vast range of determining factors and their causal links. Consequently, a broad span of scientific disciplines is involved in tackling these complex phenomena. First, we evaluate the citation behaviour of relevant scientific literature in order to clarify the question "do scientists consider results of other disciplines to extend their expertise?" We then highlight emerging tools and concepts useful for risk assessment. Correlative models (regression-based, machine-learning and profile techniques), mechanistic models (basic reproduction number R 0) and methods of spatial regression, interaction and interpolation are described. We discuss further steps towards multidisciplinary approaches regarding new tools and emerging concepts to combine existing approaches such as Bayesian geostatistical modelling, mechanistic models which avoid the need for parameter fitting, joined correlative and mechanistic models, multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic profiling. We take the quality of both occurrence data for vector, host and disease cases, and data of the predictor variables into consideration as both determine the accuracy of risk area identification. Finally, we underline the importance of multidisciplinary research approaches. Even if the establishment of communication networks between scientific disciplines and the share of specific methods is time consuming, it promises new insights for the surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases worldwide.
Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Beierkuhnlein, Carl
A study conducted by Carpenter, O Brien, Hagerman and McCarl in 2011 estimates the economic impact of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the United States to be $2.3 $69.0 billion. We simulate an outbreak of FMD across central California using the...
The protective role of personalized ventilation (PV) against plausible airborne transmissible disease was investigated using cough droplets released from a 'coughing machine' simulating the human cough at different distances (1, 1.75 and 3 m) from the PV user. Particle image velocimetry was used to characterize and visualize the interaction between the cough-generated multiphase flow and PV-induced flow in the inhalation zone of the thermal breathing manikin. A dose-response model for unsteady imperfectly mixed environment was used to estimate the reduction in infection risk of two common diseases that can be transmitted by airborne mode. PV was able to both reduce the peak aerosol concentration levels and shorten the exposure time at all the examined injection distances. PV could reduce the infection risks of two diseases, influenza A and tuberculosis, by between 27 and 65 per cent. The protection offered by PV is less effective at a distance of 1.75 m than the other distances, as shown in the risk assessment results, as the PV-generated flow was blown off by the cough-generated flow for the longest time. Results of this study demonstrate the ability of desktop PV to mitigate the infection risk of airborne transmissible disease. PMID:19812074
Pantelic, Jovan; Sze-To, Gin Nam; Tham, Kwok Wai; Chao, Christopher Y H; Khoo, Yong Chuan Mike
Hausbeck, M. K., Bell, J., Medina-Mora, C., Podolsky, R., and Fulbright, D. W. 2000. Effect of bactericides on population sizes and spread of Clavi- bacter michiganensis subsp. michiganensis on tomatoes in the greenhouse and on disease development and crop yield in the field. Phytopathology 90:38-44. Chemical applications, with the exception of mancozeb, reduced popu- lation sizes and spread of Clavibacter
M. K. Hausbeck; J. Bell; C. Medina-Mora; R. Podolsky; D. W. Fulbright
The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is a large wild bovid which until recently ranged across all but the driest parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and their local range being limited to about 20 km from surface water. They are of high ecological value due to their important role as bulk feeders in the grazing hierarchy. They also have high economic value, because they are one of the sought after 'Big Five' in the eco-tourism industry. In Africa, buffaloes have been recognised for some time as an important role player in the maintenance and transmission of a variety of economically important livestock diseases at the wildlife and/or livestock interface. These include African strains of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), Corridor disease (theileriosis), bovine tuberculosis and bovine brucellosis. For a number of other diseases of veterinary importance, African buffaloes may also serve as amplifier or incidental host, whereby infection with the causative pathogens may cause severe clinical signs such as death or abortion as in the case of anthrax and Rift Valley fever, or remain mild or subclinical for example heartwater. The long term health implications of most of those infections on the buffalo at a population level is usually limited, and they do not pose a threat on the population's survival. Because of their ability to harbour and transmit important diseases to livestock, their sustainable future in ecotourism, trade and transfrontier conservation projects become complex and costly and reliable diagnostic tools are required to monitor these infections in buffalo populations. PMID:23327373
Michel, Anita L; Bengis, Roy G
Reducing disease prevalence through selection for host resistance offers a desirable alternative to chemical treatment. Selection for host resistance has proven difficult, however, due to low heritability estimates. These low estimates may be caused by a failure to capture all the relevant genetic variance in disease resistance, as genetic analysis currently is not taylored to estimate genetic variation in infectivity. Host infectivity is the propensity of transmitting infection upon contact with a susceptible individual, and can be regarded as an indirect effect to disease status. It may be caused by a combination of physiological and behavioural traits. Though genetic variation in infectivity is difficult to measure directly, Indirect Genetic Effect (IGE) models, also referred to as associative effects or social interaction models, allow the estimation of this variance from more readily available binary disease data (infected/non-infected). We therefore generated binary disease data from simulated populations with known amounts of variation in susceptibility and infectivity to test the adequacy of traditional and IGE models. Our results show that a conventional model fails to capture the genetic variation in infectivity inherent in populations with simulated infectivity. An IGE model, on the other hand, does capture some of the variation in infectivity. Comparison with expected genetic variance suggests that there is scope for further methodological improvement, and that potential responses to selection may be greater than values presented here. Nonetheless, selection using an index of estimated direct and indirect breeding values was shown to have a greater genetic selection differential and reduced future disease risk than traditional selection for resistance only. These findings suggest that if genetic variation in infectivity substantially contributes to disease transmission, then breeding designs which explicitly incorporate IGEs might help reduce disease prevalence.
Lipschutz-Powell, Debby; Woolliams, John A.; Bijma, Piter; Doeschl-Wilson, Andrea B.
Theiler's murine encephalomyelitis virus (TMEV) is a natural mouse pathogen which causes a lifelong persistent infection of the central nervous system (CNS) accompanied by T-cell-mediated myelin destruction leading to chronic, progressive hind limb paralysis. TMEV-induced demyelinating disease (TMEV-IDD) is considered to be a highly relevant animal model for the human autoimmune disease multiple sclerosis (MS), which is thought to be
KATHERINE L. NEVILLE; MAURO C. DAL CANTO; JEFFREY A. BLUESTONE; STEPHEN D. MILLER
Farms that purchase replacement breeding cattle are at increased risk of introducing many economically important diseases. The objectives of this analysis were to determine whether the total number of replacement breeding cattle purchased by individual farms could be reduced by improving herd performance and to quantify the effects of such reductions on the industry-level transmission dynamics of infectious cattle diseases. Detailed information on the performance and contact patterns of British cattle herds was extracted from the national cattle movement database as a case example. Approximately 69% of beef herds and 59% of dairy herds with an average of at least 20 recorded calvings per year purchased at least one replacement breeding animal. Results from zero-inflated negative binomial regression models revealed that herds with high average ages at first calving, prolonged calving intervals, abnormally high or low culling rates, and high calf mortality rates were generally more likely to be open herds and to purchase greater numbers of replacement breeding cattle. If all herds achieved the same level of performance as the top 20% of herds, the total number of replacement beef and dairy cattle purchased could be reduced by an estimated 34% and 51%, respectively. Although these purchases accounted for only 13% of between-herd contacts in the industry trade network, they were found to have a disproportionately strong influence on disease transmission dynamics. These findings suggest that targeting extension services at herds with suboptimal performance may be an effective strategy for controlling endemic cattle diseases while simultaneously improving industry productivity. PMID:24671129
Gates, M Carolyn; Woolhouse, Mark E J
Bornaviruses, which chronically infect many species, can cause severe neurological diseases in some animal species; their association with human neuropsychiatric disorders is, however, debatable. The epidemiology of Borna disease virus (BDV), as for other members of the family Bornaviridae, is largely unknown, although evidence exists for a reservoir in small mammals, for example bank voles (Myodes glareolus). In addition to the current exogenous infections and despite the fact that bornaviruses have an RNA genome, bornavirus sequences integrated into the genomes of several vertebrates millions of years ago. Our hypothesis is that the bank vole, a common wild rodent species in traditional BDV-endemic areas, can serve as a viral host; we therefore explored whether this species can be infected with BDV, and if so, how the virus spreads and whether viral RNA is transcribed into DNA in vivo. We infected neonate bank voles intracerebrally with BDV and euthanized them 2 to 8 weeks post-infection. Specific Ig antibodies were detectable in 41%. Histological evaluation revealed no significant pathological alterations, but BDV RNA and antigen were detectable in all infected brains. Immunohistology demonstrated centrifugal spread throughout the nervous tissue, because viral antigen was widespread in peripheral nerves and ganglia, including the mediastinum, esophagus, and urinary bladder. This was associated with viral shedding in feces, of which 54% were BDV RNA-positive, and urine at 17%. BDV nucleocapsid gene DNA occurred in 66% of the infected voles, and, surprisingly, occasionally also phosphoprotein DNA. Thus, intracerebral BDV infection of bank vole led to systemic infection of the nervous tissue and viral excretion, as well as frequent reverse transcription of the BDV genome, enabling genomic integration. This first experimental bornavirus infection in wild mammals confirms the recent findings regarding bornavirus DNA, and suggests that bank voles are capable of bornavirus transmission.
Kinnunen, Paula Maria; Inkeroinen, Hanna; Ilander, Mette; Kallio, Eva Riikka; Heikkila, Henna Pauliina; Koskela, Esa; Mappes, Tapio; Palva, Airi; Vaheri, Antti; Kipar, Anja; Vapalahti, Olli
Most mathematical models of plant disease epidemics ignore the growth and phenology of the host crop. Unfortunately, reports of disease development are often not accompanied by a simultaneous and commensurate evaluation of crop development. However, the time scale for increases in the leaf area of field crops is comparable to the time scale of epidemics. This simultaneous development of host and pathogen has many ramifications on the resulting plant disease epidemic. First, there is a simple dilution effect resulting from the introduction of new healthy leaf area with time. Often, measurements of disease levels are made pro rata (per unit of host leaf area or total root length or mass). Thus, host growth will reduce the apparent infection rate. A second, related effect, has to do with the so-called "correction factor," which accounts for inoculum falling on already infected tissue. This factor accounts for multiple infection and is given by the fraction of the host tissue that is susceptible to disease. As an epidemic develops, less and less tissue is open to infection and the initial exponential growth slows. Crop growth delays the impact of this limiting effect and, therefore, tends to increase the rate of disease progress. A third and often neglected effect arises when an increase in the density of susceptible host tissue results in a corresponding increase in the basic reproduction ratio, R(0), defined as the ratio of the total number of daughter lesions produced to the number of original mother lesions. This occurs when the transport efficiency of inoculum from infected to susceptible host is strongly dependent on the spatial density of plant tissue. Thus, crop growth may have a major impact on the development of plant disease epidemics occurring during the vegetative phase of crop growth. The effects that these crop growth-related factors have on plant disease epidemics spread by airborne spores are evaluated using mathematical models and their importance is discussed. In particular, plant disease epidemics initiated by the introduction of inoculum during this stage of development are shown to be relatively insensitive to the time at which inoculum is introduced. PMID:18943216
Ferrandino, F J
Physical contact remains difficult to trace in large metropolitan networks, though it is a key vehicle for the transmission of contagious outbreaks. Co-presence encounters during daily transit use provide us with a city-scale time-resolved physical contact network, consisting of 1 billion contacts among 3 million transit users. Here, we study the advantage that knowledge of such co-presence structures may provide for early detection of contagious outbreaks. We first examine the “friend sensor” scheme - a simple, but universal strategy requiring only local information - and demonstrate that it provides significant early detection of simulated outbreaks. Taking advantage of the full network structure, we then identify advanced “global sensor sets”, obtaining substantial early warning times savings over the friends sensor scheme. Individuals with highest number of encounters are the most efficient sensors, with performance comparable to individuals with the highest travel frequency, exploratory behavior and structural centrality. An efficiency balance emerges when testing the dependency on sensor size and evaluating sensor reliability; we find that substantial and reliable lead-time could be attained by monitoring only 0.01% of the population with the highest degree.
Sun, Lijun; Axhausen, Kay W.; Lee, Der-Horng; Cebrian, Manuel
Physical contact remains difficult to trace in large metropolitan networks, though it is a key vehicle for the transmission of contagious outbreaks. Co-presence encounters during daily transit use provide us with a city-scale time-resolved physical contact network, consisting of 1 billion contacts among 3 million transit users. Here, we study the advantage that knowledge of such co-presence structures may provide for early detection of contagious outbreaks. We first examine the "friend sensor" scheme - a simple, but universal strategy requiring only local information - and demonstrate that it provides significant early detection of simulated outbreaks. Taking advantage of the full network structure, we then identify advanced "global sensor sets", obtaining substantial early warning times savings over the friends sensor scheme. Individuals with highest number of encounters are the most efficient sensors, with performance comparable to individuals with the highest travel frequency, exploratory behavior and structural centrality. An efficiency balance emerges when testing the dependency on sensor size and evaluating sensor reliability; we find that substantial and reliable lead-time could be attained by monitoring only 0.01% of the population with the highest degree. PMID:24903017
Sun, Lijun; Axhausen, Kay W; Lee, Der-Horng; Cebrian, Manuel
Twenty-eight outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease, reported as being transmitted mainly by the person to person route, were identified in association with retail catering premises, such as hotels, restaurants, and public houses, in England and Wales between 1992 and 1994. Five thousand and forty-eight people were at risk in these outbreaks and 1234 were affected. Most of the outbreaks (over 90%) occurred in hotels. Small round structured viruses were the most commonly detected pathogens. Diarrhoea and vomiting were common symptoms and most of the outbreaks occurred in the summer months. Control measures to contain infectious individuals and improved hygiene measures are necessary to contain such outbreaks. PMID:7550587
McDonnell, R J; Wall, P G; Adak, G K; Evans, H S; Cowden, J M; Caul, E O
15,000 years ago, the Sahara was moist, inhabited by tropical fauna and travelled over by nomadic populations. Later, the dryness incited human migrations to North or West Africa. African bilharziasis (S. mansoni and S. haematobium) could have been carried by nomadic populations infected in the Nile River. Sickle cell disease and alpha-thalassemia are derived from Saudi Arabia (unless in the case of alpha-thalassemia there was an identical mutation in several regions). Echinococcosis was brought with the dromedary in the ptolemaic era whereas ankylostomiasis was brought by the Romans or the Arabs. PMID:3301031
Nozais, J P
This is a problem-based learning adventure game that engages the player in the role of scientist, historian, and detective. Students get an introduction to infectious diseases and pathogens. At the beginning, the student is presented with a problem that must be solved. During the mission, students conduct field and laboratory investigations with the aid of the MedMyst characters. Each mission can be played within one class period (approximately 30 to 45 minutes) and the knowledge gained from each mission will help students understand how infectious diseases are spread. We recommend that Mission One be played first because it covers the basics and serves as an orientation to the concepts and the characters. However, any of the missions may be chosen to follow Mission One. Each mission is a self-contained problem and may be played without reliance on the other missions. Also available in Spanish.
Learning, Center F.
This article uses stochastic simulations with a compartmental epidemic model to quantify the impact of genetic diversity within animal populations on the transmission of infectious disease. Genetic diversity is defined by the number of distinct genotypes in the population conferring resistance to microparasitic (e.g., viral or bacterial) infections. Scenarios include homogeneous populations and populations composed of few (finite-locus model) or many (infinitesimal model) genotypes. Genetic heterogeneity has no impact upon the expected value of the basic reproductive ratio (the primary description of the transmission of infection) but affects the variability of this parameter. Consequently, increasing genetic heterogeneity is associated with an increased probability of minor epidemics and decreased probabilities of both major (catastrophic) epidemics and no epidemics. Additionally, heterogeneity per se is associated with a breakdown in the expected relationship between the basic reproductive ratio and epidemic severity, which has been developed for homogeneous populations, with increasing heterogeneity generally resulting in fewer infected animals than expected. Furthermore, increased heterogeneity is associated with decreased disease-dependent mortality in major epidemics and a complex trend toward decreased duration of these epidemics. In summary, more heterogeneous populations are not expected to suffer fewer epidemics on average, but are less likely to suffer catastrophic epidemics.
Springbett, A J; MacKenzie, K; Woolliams, J A; Bishop, S C
RNA viruses account for numerous emerging and perennial infectious diseases, and are characterized by rapid rates of molecular evolution. The ecological dynamics of most emerging RNA viruses are still poorly understood and difficult to ascertain. The availability of genome sequence data for many RNA viruses, in principle, could be used to infer ecological dynamics if changes in population numbers produced a lasting signature within the pattern of genome evolution. As a result, the rapidly emerging phylogeographic structure of a pathogen, shaped by the rise and fall in the number of infections and their spatial distribution, could be used as a surrogate for direct ecological assessments. Based on rabies virus as our example, we use a model combining ecological and evolutionary processes to test whether variation in the rate of host movement results in predictive diagnostic patterns of pathogen genetic structure. We identify several linearizable relationships between host dispersal rate and measures of phylogenetic structure suggesting genetic information can be used to directly infer ecological process. We also find phylogenetic structure may be more revealing than demography for certain ecological processes. Our approach extends the reach of current analytic frameworks for infectious disease dynamics by linking phylogeography back to underlying ecological processes.
Duke-Sylvester, Scott M.; Biek, Roman; Real, Leslie A.
Experiments were done to determine if transporting live screwworms Cochliomyia hominivorax Coquerel (Diptera: Calliphoridae) for developing new strains from countries where foot-and-mouth disease and classical swine fever are endemic, to the mass rearing facilities in Mexico and Panama, may introduce these exotic diseases into these countries. Are screwworms capable of harboring and spreading foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and classical swine
M. F. Chaudhury; G. B. Ward; S. R. Skoda; M. Y. Deng; J. B. Welch; T. S. McKenna
Chronic wasting disease is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of cervids, similar to sheep scrapie that has only recently been detected in wild populations of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus) in western Canada. Relatively little is known about local transmission dynamics of the disease or the potential for long-distance spread. We analysed the population genetic structure of over 2000 white-tailed deer sampled from Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan using microsatellite profiles and mtDNA sequencing to assess the relative risk of disease spread. There was very little differentiation among subpopulations and a weak trend of increasing differentiation with geographic distance. This suggests that the potential for long-distance disease spread through the dispersal of infected individuals is possible, yet the risk of spread should gradually diminish with distance from infection foci. Within subpopulations, females were more related than expected by chance (R > 0) within a radius of approximately 500 m. Sex-biased philopatry and social interactions among related females may facilitate local disease transmission within social groups. Local herd reduction may therefore be an effective tool for reducing the disease prevalence when implemented at the appropriate spatial scale.
Cullingham, Catherine I; Merrill, Evelyn H; Pybus, Margo J; Bollinger, Trent K; Wilson, Gregory A; Coltman, David W
Accumulation of amyloidogenic proteins such as Tau is a hallmark of neurodegenerative diseases including Alzheimer disease and fronto-temporal dementias. To link Tau pathology to cognitive impairments and defects in synaptic plasticity, we created four inducible Tau transgenic mouse models with expression of pro- and anti-aggregant variants of either full-length human Tau (hTau40/?K280 and hTau40/?K280/PP) or the truncated Tau repeat domain (Tau(RD)/?K280 and Tau(RD)/?K280/PP). Here we review the histopathological features caused by pro-aggregant Tau, and correlate them with behavioral deficits and impairments in synaptic transmission. Both pro-aggregant Tau variants cause Alzheimer-like features, including synapse loss, mis-localization of Tau into the somatodendritic compartment, conformational changes and hyperphosphorylation. However, there is a clear difference in the extent of Tau aggregation and neurotoxicity. While pro-aggregant full-length hTau40/?K280 leads to a 'pre-tangle' pathology, the repeat domain Tau(RD)/?K280 causes massive formation of neurofibrillary tangles and neuronal loss in the hippocampus. However, both Tau variants cause co-aggregation of human and mouse Tau and similar functional impairments. Thus, earlier Tau pathological stages and not necessarily neurofibrillary tangles are critical for the development of cognitive malfunctions. Most importantly, memory and synapses recover after switching off expression of pro-aggregant Tau. The rescue of functional impairments correlates with the rescue of most Tau pathological changes and most strikingly the recovery of synapses. This implies that tauopathies as such are reversible, provided that amyloidogenic Tau is removed. Therefore, our Tau transgenic mice may serve as model systems for in vivo validation of therapeutic strategies and drug candidates with regard to cognition and synaptic function. PMID:23517246
Hochgräfe, Katja; Sydow, Astrid; Mandelkow, Eva-Maria
Human alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a potentially deadly disease; recent studies have shown that the endemic area of Echinococcus multilocularis, its causative agent, is larger than previously known. This disease has low prevalence and remains underreported in Europe. Emerging clinical data show that diagnostic difficulties are still common. We report on a 76-year old patient suffering from AE lesions restricted to the left lobe of the liver who underwent a curative extended left hemihepatectomy. Prior to the resection a liver biopsy under the suspicion of an atypical malignancy was performed. After the intervention he developed a pseudoaneurysm of the hepatic artery that was successfully coiled. Surprisingly, during surgery, the macroscopic appearance of the tumour revealed a growth pattern that was rather typical for cystic echinococcosis (CE), i.e., a gross tumour composed of multiple large vesicles with several centimeters in diameter. In addition, there were neither extensive adhesions nor infiltrations of the neighboring pancreas and diaphragm as was expected from previous imaging results. The unexpected diagnosis of AE was confirmed by definite histopathology, specific polymerase chain reaction and serology results. This is a rare case of unusual macroscopic presentation of AE that posed immense diagnostic challenges and had an eventful course. To our knowledge this is the first case of an autochthonous infection in this particular geographic area of Germany, the federal state of Saxony. This report may provide new hints for an expanding area of risk for AE and emphasizes the risk of complications in the scope of diagnostic procedures and the limitations of modern radiological imaging. PMID:23864792
Atanasov, Georgi; Benckert, Christoph; Thelen, Armin; Tappe, Dennis; Frosch, Matthias; Teichmann, Dieter; Barth, Thomas F E; Wittekind, Christian; Schubert, Stefan; Jonas, Sven
Humans favor others seen as similar to themselves (ingroup) over people seen as different (outgroup), even without explicitly stated bias. Ingroup-outgroup bias extends to involuntary responses, such as empathy for pain. However, empathy biases have not been tested in our close primate relatives. Contagious yawning has been theoretically and empirically linked to empathy. If empathy underlies contagious yawning, we predict
Matthew W. Campbell; Frans B. M. de Waal; Georges Chapouthier
The countries surrounding the Persian Gulf are remarkable for the variety of infectious and contagious diseases that will affect those deployed to this area. In addition to the common gastrointestinal problems often seen in deployed troops, they will be exposed to such unusual problems as malaria, schistosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and rabies. Medical personnel will need to consider diseases that they have never before treated or diagnosed, and will have to educate their troops regarding control of vectors, avoidance of exposure, and personal hygiene and sanitation. Proper predeployment vaccination, use of appropriate prophylaxis, and use of countermeasures such as insect repellent will keep the spread of disease minimal. PMID:1956525
Baker, M S; Strunk, H K
The study presented here is one of the very first aimed at exploring the potential spread of classical swine fever (CSF) from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs. Specifically, we used a spatial stochastic spread model, called Be-FAST, to evaluate the potential spread of CSF virus (CSFV) in Bulgaria, which holds a large number of backyards (96% of the total number of pig farms) and is one of the very few countries for which backyard pigs and farm counts are available. The model revealed that, despite backyard pigs being very likely to become infected, infections from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs were rare. In general, the magnitude and duration of the CSF simulated epidemics were small, with a median [95% PI] number of infected farms per epidemic of 1 [1,4] and a median [95% PI] duration of the epidemic of 44 [17,101] days. CSFV transmission occurs primarily (81.16%) due to indirect contacts (i.e. vehicles, people and local spread) whereas detection of infected premises was mainly (69%) associated with the observation of clinical signs on farm rather than with implementation of tracing or zoning. Methods and results of this study may support the implementation of risk-based strategies more cost-effectively to prevent, control and, ultimately, eradicate CSF from Bulgaria. The model may also be easily adapted to other countries in which the backyard system is predominant. It can also be used to simulate other similar diseases such as African swine fever. PMID:23465838
Martínez-López, Beatriz; Ivorra, Benjamin; Ramos, Angel Manuel; Fernández-Carrión, Eduardo; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel
Regulatory T cells (Tregs) attenuate lesion severity and disease after HSV ocular or genital infection, but their role in cutaneous infection remains unclear. Treg depletion (anti-CD25 mAb in C57BL/6 mice or diphtheria toxin (DT) in DEREG mice) prior to tk-deficient HSV-2 flank infection significantly decreased skin lesion severity, granulocyte receptor-1(Gr-1(+)) cell number, and chemokine (KC) expression in the secondary skin, but significantly increased immune effectors and chemokine expression (MCP-1, KC, VEGF-A) in the draining LN, and activated, interferon-? producing CD8(+)T cells in the ganglia. Treg depletion also significantly reduced HSV-2 DNA in the ganglia. Thus, Tregs increase the severity of recurrent skin lesions, and differentially alter chemokine expression and immune effector homing in the skin and LN after cutaneous infection, and limit CD8(+) T cell responses in the ganglia. Our data suggests that effects of Treg manipulation on recurrent herpes lesions should be considered when developing Treg mediated therapeutics. PMID:24210095
Fernandez, Marian A; Yu, Uet; Zhang, Geoff; White, Rose; Sparwasser, Tim; Alexander, Stephen I; Jones, Cheryl A
Social contact patterns among individuals encode the transmission route of infectious diseases and are a key ingredient in the realistic characterization and modeling of epidemics. Unfortunately, the gathering of high quality experimental data on contact patterns in human populations is a very difficult task even at the coarse level of mixing patterns among age groups. Here we propose an alternative route to the estimation of mixing patterns that relies on the construction of virtual populations parametrized with highly detailed census and demographic data. We present the modeling of the population of 26 European countries and the generation of the corresponding synthetic contact matrices among the population age groups. The method is validated by a detailed comparison with the matrices obtained in six European countries by the most extensive survey study on mixing patterns. The methodology presented here allows a large scale comparison of mixing patterns in Europe, highlighting general common features as well as country-specific differences. We find clear relations between epidemiologically relevant quantities (reproduction number and attack rate) and socio-demographic characteristics of the populations, such as the average age of the population and the duration of primary school cycle. This study provides a numerical approach for the generation of human mixing patterns that can be used to improve the accuracy of mathematical models in the absence of specific experimental data. PMID:23028275
Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Manfredi, Piero; Vespignani, Alessandro; Merler, Stefano
The dynamics of infectious diseases strongly depends on the structure of the social contact patterns among individuals. In order to have an accurate estimate of the impact of epidemic outbreaks and which effective control measures to take, we need an appropriate description of these patterns. A simple way to improve the homogeneous mixing assumption is to introduce age contact patterns. Here we follow the approach of Fumanelli et al (PLoS Computational Biology, 8(9):e1002673, 2012) to estimate the age mixing patterns of virtual populations using highly detailed census data for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Considering age contact matrices for these countries we study the epidemiological relevant quantities and their relation with the sociodemographic data. Our results show that even for the same country the impact of epidemics outbreaks could be very different when we consider age contact matrices. This results can be explained as a result of a change in the average age of the population in the different regions of the countries. This study also provides the first estimates of contact matrices for Latin American countries.
Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Gomes, Marcelo F. C.; Rossi, Luca; Vespignani, Alessandro
A predictable sequential determinant spreading cascade invariably accompanies progression of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis: a basis for peptide-specific therapy after onset of clinical disease
The development of autoimmune disease is accompanied by the acquired recognition of new self-determinants, a process commonly referred to as determinant spreading. In this study, we addressed the question of whether determinant spreading is pathogenic for progression of chronic- relapsing experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a disease with many similarities to multiple sclerosis (MS). Our approach involved a systematic epitope mapping of responses to myelin proteolipid protein (PLP) as well as assaying responses to known encephalitogenic determinants of myelin basic protein (MBP 87-89) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG 92-106) at various times after induction of EAE in (SWR X SJL)F1 mice immunized with PLP 139-151. We found that the order in which new determinants are recognized during the course of disease follows a predictable sequential pattern. At monthly intervals after immunization with p139-151, responses to PLP 249-273, MBP 87-99, and PLP 137-198 were sequentially accumulated in al mice examined. Three lines of evidence showed that determinant spreading is pathogenic for disease progression: (a) spreading determinants mediate passive transfer of acute EAE in naive (SWR X SJL)F1 recipients; (b) an invariant relationship exists between the development of relapse/progression and the spreading of recognition to new immunodominant encephalitogenic determinants; and (c) after EAE onset, the induction of peptide-specific tolerance to spreading but not to nonspreading encephalitogenic determinants prevents subsequent progression of EAE. Thus, the predictability of acquired self- determinant recognition provides a basis for sequential determinant- specific therapeutic intervention after onset of the autoimmune disease process.
Background Venturia inaequalis is an ascomycete fungus responsible for apple scab, a disease that has invaded almost all apple growing regions worldwide, with the corresponding adverse effects on apple production. Monitoring and predicting the effectiveness of intervention strategies require knowledge of the origin, introduction pathways, and population biology of pathogen populations. Analysis of the variation of genetic markers using the inferential framework of population genetics offers the potential to retrieve this information. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we present a population genetic analysis of microsatellite variation in 1,273 strains of V. inaequalis representing 28 orchard samples from seven regions in five continents. Analysis of molecular variance revealed that most of the variation (88%) was distributed within localities, which is consistent with extensive historical migrations of the fungus among and within regions. Despite this shallow population structure, clustering analyses partitioned the data set into separate groups corresponding roughly to geography, indicating that each region hosts a distinct population of the fungus. Comparison of the levels of variability among populations, along with coalescent analyses of migration models and estimates of genetic distances, was consistent with a scenario in which the fungus emerged in Central Asia, where apple was domesticated, before its introduction into Europe and, more recently, into other continents with the expansion of apple growing. Across the novel range, levels of variability pointed to multiple introductions and all populations displayed signatures of significant post-introduction increases in population size. Most populations exhibited high genotypic diversity and random association of alleles across loci, indicating recombination both in native and introduced areas. Conclusions/Significance Venturia inaequalis is a model of invasive phytopathogenic fungus that has now reached the ultimate stage of the invasion process with a broad geographic distribution and well-established populations displaying high genetic variability, regular sexual reproduction, and demographic expansion.
Gladieux, Pierre; Zhang, Xiu-Guo; Afoufa-Bastien, Damien; Valdebenito Sanhueza, Rosa-Maria; Sbaghi, Mohamed; Le Cam, Bruno
Background Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology. Methods and Findings 7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible. Conclusions To our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies.
Mossong, Joel; Hens, Niel; Jit, Mark; Beutels, Philippe; Auranen, Kari; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Massari, Marco; Salmaso, Stefania; Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia; Wallinga, Jacco; Heijne, Janneke; Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata; Rosinska, Magdalena; Edmunds, W. John
Marek’s disease virus (MDV) is a highly contagious herpesvirus which induces T-cell lymphoma in the chicken. This virus is still spreading in flocks despite forty years of vaccination, with important economical losses worldwide. The feather follicles, which anchor feathers into the skin and allow their morphogenesis, are considered as the unique source of MDV excretion, causing environmental contamination and disease transmission. Epithelial cells from the feather follicles are the only known cells in which high levels of infectious mature virions have been observed by transmission electron microscopy and from which cell-free infectious virions have been purified. Finally, feathers harvested on animals and dust are today considered excellent materials to monitor vaccination, spread of pathogenic viruses, and environmental contamination. This article reviews the current knowledge on MDV-skin interactions and discusses new approaches that could solve important issues in the future.
Transhumance, or seasonal grazing, in central Italy is a husbandry practice that is over two thousand years old. It involves the seasonal movement of sheep, goats and cattle from the southern lowlands of mainly the Puglia and Lazio regions, to summer pastures in the mountains of Abruzzo and Molise. Bluetongue (BT) made its appearance in Italy in 2000. In the early summer of 2001, disease was present in three regions: Sardinia, Sicily and Calabria. Neither an effective surveillance system nor a vaccination campaign had been implemented. Movement of ruminants to the disease-free regions of Abruzzo and Molise was therefore banned. The Italian Veterinary Services had to meet the challenge of the movement of ruminants from surveillance to disease-free zones, given the impossibility of stopping transhumance. The General Directorate of Veterinary Public Health, Food and Nutrition of the Ministry of Health developed a plan for both the Puglia and Abruzzo regions based on serological, virological and entomological surveillance. The plan was implemented between May and June 2001 when 7,000 animals moved from the Puglia surveillance zone to the infection-free summer pastures. In the early summer of 2002, eight regions were infected (Sardinia, Sicily, Calabria, Basilicata, Puglia, Campania, Lazio and Tuscany). Simultaneously, a nationwide surveillance system and a vaccination campaign, were implemented in infected regions. In the provinces where vaccination was compulsory, deviation from the animal movement ban was allowed if at least 80% of susceptible stock had been vaccinated. However, this objective was not achieved in the provinces of Rome and Viterbo (Lazio) where a large transhumant population was present and where sporadic virus circulation had been detected. A specific control plan to allow transhumance from Lazio to Abruzzo, Marche and Umbria was designed and implemented to increase the number of animals that could be moved. Between May and June 2002, authorisation was granted to move 28,000 head, whereas prohibition of movement was ordered for 12,000 sheep (belonging to 21 flocks). Regional authorities financed feeding, watering and housing for these animals. Transhumance did not spread infection to disease-free areas either in 2001 or in 2002. PMID:20422619
Nannini, D; Calistri, P; Giovannini, A; Di Ventura, M; Cafiero, M A; Ferrari, G; Santucci, U; Caporale, V
Humans favor others seen as similar to themselves (ingroup) over people seen as different (outgroup), even without explicitly stated bias. Ingroup-outgroup bias extends to involuntary responses, such as empathy for pain. However, empathy biases have not been tested in our close primate relatives. Contagious yawning has been theoretically and empirically linked to empathy. If empathy underlies contagious yawning, we predict that subjects should show an ingroup-outgroup bias by yawning more in response to watching ingroup members yawn than outgroup. Twenty-three chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) from two separate groups watched videos of familiar and unfamiliar individuals yawning or at rest (control). The chimpanzees yawned more when watching the familiar yawns than the familiar control or the unfamiliar yawns, demonstrating an ingroup-outgroup bias in contagious yawning. These results provide further empirical support that contagious yawning is a measure of empathy, which may be useful for evolutionary biology and mental health. PMID:21494669
Campbell, Matthew W; de Waal, Frans B M
Marek's Disease Virus (MDV) is an avian alpha-herpesvirus that only spreads from cell-to-cell in cell culture. While its cell-to-cell spread has been shown to be dependent on actin filament dynamics, the mechanisms regulating this spread remain largely unknown. Using a recombinant BAC20 virus expressing an EGFPVP22 tegument protein, we found that the actin cytoskeleton arrangements and cell-cell contacts differ in the center and periphery of MDV infection plaques, with cells in the latter areas showing stress fibers and rare cellular projections. Using specific inhibitors and activators, we determined that Rho-ROCK pathway, known to regulate stress fiber formation, and Rac-PAK, known to promote lamellipodia formation and destabilize stress fibers, had strong contrasting effects on MDV cell-to-cell spread in primary chicken embryo skin cells (CESCs). Inhibition of Rho and its ROCKs effectors led to reduced plaque sizes whereas inhibition of Rac or its group I-PAKs effectors had the adverse effect. Importantly, we observed that the shape of MDV plaques is related to the semi-ordered arrangement of the elongated cells, at the monolayer level in the vicinity of the plaques. Inhibition of Rho-ROCK signaling also resulted in a perturbation of the cell arrangement and a rounding of plaques. These opposing effects of Rho and Rac pathways in MDV cell-to-cell spread were validated for two parental MDV recombinant viruses with different ex vivo spread efficiencies. Finally, we demonstrated that Rho/Rac pathways have opposing effects on the accumulation of N-cadherin at cell-cell contact regions between CESCs, and defined these contacts as adherens junctions. Considering the importance of adherens junctions in HSV-1 cell-to-cell spread in some cell types, this result makes of adherens junctions maintenance one potential and attractive hypothesis to explain the Rho/Rac effects on MDV cell-to-cell spread. Our study provides the first evidence that MDV cell-to-cell spread is regulated by Rho/Rac signaling. PMID:22952878
Richerioux, Nicolas; Blondeau, Caroline; Wiedemann, Agnès; Rémy, Sylvie; Vautherot, Jean-François; Denesvre, Caroline
Marek's Disease Virus (MDV) is an avian alpha-herpesvirus that only spreads from cell-to-cell in cell culture. While its cell-to-cell spread has been shown to be dependent on actin filament dynamics, the mechanisms regulating this spread remain largely unknown. Using a recombinant BAC20 virus expressing an EGFPVP22 tegument protein, we found that the actin cytoskeleton arrangements and cell-cell contacts differ in the center and periphery of MDV infection plaques, with cells in the latter areas showing stress fibers and rare cellular projections. Using specific inhibitors and activators, we determined that Rho-ROCK pathway, known to regulate stress fiber formation, and Rac-PAK, known to promote lamellipodia formation and destabilize stress fibers, had strong contrasting effects on MDV cell-to-cell spread in primary chicken embryo skin cells (CESCs). Inhibition of Rho and its ROCKs effectors led to reduced plaque sizes whereas inhibition of Rac or its group I-PAKs effectors had the adverse effect. Importantly, we observed that the shape of MDV plaques is related to the semi-ordered arrangement of the elongated cells, at the monolayer level in the vicinity of the plaques. Inhibition of Rho-ROCK signaling also resulted in a perturbation of the cell arrangement and a rounding of plaques. These opposing effects of Rho and Rac pathways in MDV cell-to-cell spread were validated for two parental MDV recombinant viruses with different ex vivo spread efficiencies. Finally, we demonstrated that Rho/Rac pathways have opposing effects on the accumulation of N-cadherin at cell-cell contact regions between CESCs, and defined these contacts as adherens junctions. Considering the importance of adherens junctions in HSV-1 cell-to-cell spread in some cell types, this result makes of adherens junctions maintenance one potential and attractive hypothesis to explain the Rho/Rac effects on MDV cell-to-cell spread. Our study provides the first evidence that MDV cell-to-cell spread is regulated by Rho/Rac signaling.
Richerioux, Nicolas; Remy, Sylvie; Vautherot, Jean-Francois; Denesvre, Caroline
Contagious ecthyma virus (CEV) is a disease caused by a parapoxvirus, also is a potent genetic carrier with the capacity for regulating apoptosis in the cells of infected skin, a mechanism that serves for evading the immune response of the host. It has been suggested that the virus may remain in the skin and be able to cause repeated infections in the same flock. The effect of infection as well as the presence of contagious ecthyma virus was evaluated in terms of lesions and apoptosis in the skin of animals, infected both naturally and experimentally. Samples used were obtained from a naturally infected sheep, 5 goats inoculated with CEV and a negative control. Samples obtained were longitudinally sectioned and processed using photon and electron microscopy, and embedded in paraffin and araldite. Samples embedded in paraffin were sectioned in 5 microm of thickness and dyed with orange eosin-hematoxilin G and Gomori's trichrom stain, apoptosis was demonstrated by the TUNEL assay, the viral antigen was revealed using polyclonal antibodies, and the presence of lymphocytes CD4+ and CD8+, with monoclonal antibodies. The samples processed in resin were cut to obtain semi-fine sections and dyed with toluidine blue-borax, and the ultra-fine sections were impregnated with lead citrate and uranyl acetate. Observations were similar in both, the natural infected animal and the experimental group. Infiltration was observed as well as images suggestive of a process of apoptosis. The TUNEL assay demonstrated that the number of epithelial cells undergoing apoptosis diminished during the process and increased among defense cells, until they almost disappeared at the beginning of healing. Cells undergoing apoptosis were located near the sebaceous glands and pilose follicles. The infiltrated lymphocytes gradually diminished. The viral antigen was observed in cells with morphology suggestive of apoptosis, located in sebaceous glands and pilose follicles. Using electron microscopy, cells with morphology compatible with that of lymphocytes were observed to be undergoing apoptosis, but there was little evidence of viral particles. PMID:18191506
Garrido-Fariña, G I; Cornejo-Cortés, M A; Martínez-Rodríguez, A; Reyes-Esparza, J; Alba-Hurtado, F; Tórtora-Pérez, J
In this simulation, learners explore how ocean currents spread all kinds of pollutionâincluding oil spills, sewage, pesticides and factory wasteâfar beyond where the pollution originates. Learners create an experimental "ocean" (water in a tray) and "continents" (rocks), then add melting ice cubes to create temperature-driven currents in the water. Learners observe how "pollution," represented by food coloring, spreads through the model ocean affected by both "currents" and "continents." This activity can be used with lessons on ocean science or environmental hazards.
Science, Lawrence H.
Anti-p200 pemphigoid is a rare subepidermal blistering disease associated with autoantibodies against a 200-kDa protein, reportedly corresponding to laminin ?1. However, direct evidence of the pathogenic potential of these antibodies has not been proven. For 5 years we have followed up a patient with anti-p200 pemphigoid. During this period she experienced a total of three generalized relapses. Quantifying our patient's autoantibody concentrations against laminin ?1 by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay throughout the course of her disease we demonstrated a clear correlation with disease activity, thus providing the first evidence of the possible pathogenic role of antibodies against laminin ?1 in anti-p200 pemphigoid. Further analysis by Western blotting revealed the occurrence of additional autoantibodies against the ?3 chain of laminin 332, 1·5 years after diagnosis, suggestive of intermolecular epitope spreading. Yet, the clinical appearance was unchanged and mucous membranes remained unaffected at any stage of the disease. PMID:22639938
Monshi, B; Groth, S; Richter, L; Schmidt, E; Zillikens, D; Rappersberger, K
Background Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is the most important chronic pulmonary disease of cattle on the African continent causing severe economic losses. The disease, caused by infection with Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides is transmitted by animal contact and develops slowly into a chronic form preventing an early clinical diagnosis. Because available vaccines confer a low protection rate and short-lived immunity, the rapid diagnosis of infected animals combined with traditional curbing measures is seen as the best way to control the disease. While traditional labour-intensive bacteriological methods for the detection of M. mycoides subsp. mycoides have been replaced by molecular genetic techniques in the last two decades, these latter approaches require well-equipped laboratories and specialized personnel for the diagnosis. This is a handicap in areas where CBPP is endemic and early diagnosis is essential. Results We present a rapid, sensitive and specific diagnostic tool for M. mycoides subsp. mycoides detection based on isothermal loop-mediated amplification (LAMP) that is applicable to field conditions. The primer set developed is highly specific and sensitive enough to diagnose clinical cases without prior cultivation of the organism. The LAMP assay detects M. mycoides subsp. mycoides DNA directly from crude samples of pulmonary/pleural fluids and serum/plasma within an hour using a simple dilution protocol. A photometric detection of LAMP products allows the real-time visualisation of the amplification curve and the application of a melting curve/re-association analysis presents a means of quality assurance based on the predetermined strand-inherent temperature profile supporting the diagnosis. Conclusion The CBPP LAMP developed in a robust kit format can be run on a battery-driven mobile device to rapidly detect M. mycoides subsp. mycoides infections from clinical or post mortem samples. The stringent innate quality control allows a conclusive on-site diagnosis of CBPP such as during farm or slaughter house inspections.
In central coastal California, a recently discovered pathogen Phytophthora ramorum has been killing hundreds of thousands of tanoak, coast live oak, and black oak trees. This forest disease referred to as Sudden Oak Death (SOD) has attracted attention from the public, government and academia. Monitoring the disease distribution and understanding the disease mechanisms are important for disease control and management.
As volcanoes grow, they become ever heavier. Unlike mountains exhumed by erosion of rocks that generally were lithified at depth, volcanoes typically are built of poorly consolidated rocks that may be further weakened by hydrothermal alteration. The substrates upon which volcanoes rest, moreover, are often sediments lithified by no more than the weight of the volcanic overburden. It is not surprising, therefore, that volcanic deformation includes-and in the long term is often dominated by-spreading motions that translate subsidence near volcanic summits to outward horizontal displacements around the flanks and peripheries. We review examples of volcanic spreading and go on to derive approximate expressions for the time volcanoes require to deform by spreading on weak substrates. We also demonstrate that shear stresses that drive low-angle thrust faulting from beneath volcanic constructs have maxima at volcanic peripheries, just where such faults are seen to emerge. Finally, we establish a theoretical basis for experimentally derived scalings that delineate volcanoes that spread from those that do not.
Borgia, Andrea; Delaney, Paul T.; Denlinger, Roger P.
Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies mycoides small colony is the aetiological agent of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, a cattle disease endemic to areas of sub-Saharan Africa. Twenty isolates from various geographical locations and the type strain were analysed by multi-locus sequence analysis (MLSA). The data generated was then used to develop three PCR primer sets to differentiate these isolates. The PCRs differentiated the isolates into four groups; the type strain (T); isolates of European origin (Eu); isolates from Tanzania (Af1) with a final group consisting of isolates from Namibia and Botswana (Af2). These PCRs offers a rapid and efficient post-identification typing method without the need to sequence and analyse multiple genes. PMID:22465802
Churchward, Colin P; Hlúšek, Miroslav; Nicholas, Robin A J; Ayling, Roger D; McAuliffe, Laura
Yawn contagion in humans has been proposed to be related to our capacity for empathy. It is presently unclear whether this capacity is uniquely human or shared with other primates, especially monkeys. Here, we show that in gelada baboons (Theropithecus gelada) yawning is contagious between individuals, especially those that are socially close, i.e., the contagiousness of yawning correlated with the level of grooming contact between individuals. This correlation persisted after controlling for the effect of spatial association. Thus, emotional proximity rather than spatial proximity best predicts yawn contagion. Adult females showed precise matching of different yawning types, which suggests a mirroring mechanism that activates shared representations. The present study also suggests that females have an enhanced sensitivity and emotional tuning toward companions. These findings are consistent with the view that contagious yawning reveals an emotional connection between individuals. This phenomenon, here demonstrated in monkeys, could be a building block for full-blown empathy.
Palagi, E.; Leone, A.; Mancini, G.; Ferrari, P. F.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess the potential for atmospheric dispersion of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is primarily to identify premises which may have been exposed so that the human resources for surveillance and disease control purposes are employed most effectively.
The paper describes the combined modelling techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate paper (Gloster et al., 2002) provides a more detailed analysis of the airborne disease transmission in the vicinity of Burnside Farm.
The combined results are consistent with airborne transmission of disease to livestock in the Heddon-on-the-Wall area. Local topography may have played a significant role in influencing the pattern of disease spread.
Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.; Champion, H. J.; Donaldson, A. I.; Dunkerley, F. N.; Gloster, J.; Sørensen, J. H.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess the potential for atmospheric dispersion of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is primarily to identify premises which may have been exposed so that the human resources for surveillance and disease control purposes are employed most effectively. The paper describes the combined modelling techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate paper (Gloster et al., 2002) provides a more detailed analysis of the airborne disease transmission in the vicinity of Burnside Farm. The combined results are consistent with airborne transmission of disease to livestock in the Heddon-on-the Wall area. Local topography may have played a significant role in influencing the pattern of disease spread.
Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.; Champion, H. J.; Donaldson, A. I.; Dunkerley, F. N.; Gloster, J.; Sørensen, J. H.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.
Borna disease virus (BDV) is an enveloped virus with a nonsegmented negative-strand RNA genome whose organization is characteristic of Mononegavirales. BDV cell entry follows a receptor-mediated endocytosis pathway, which is initiated by the recognition of an as-yet-unidentified receptor at the cell surface by the virus glycoprotein G. BDV G is synthesized as a precursor (GPC) that is cleaved by the cellular protease furin to produce the mature glycoproteins GP1 and GP2, which have been implicated in receptor recognition and pH-dependent fusion events, respectively. BDV is highly neurotropic and its spread in cultured cells proceeds in the absence of detectable extracellular virus or syncytium formation. BDV spread has been proposed to be strictly dependent on the expression and correct processing of BDV G. Here we present evidence that cell-to-cell spread of BDV required neither the expression of cellular receptors involved in virus primary infection, nor the furin-mediated processing of BDV G. We also show that in furin-deficient cells, the release of BDV particles induced by the treatment of BDV-infected cells with hypertonic buffer was not significantly affected, while virion infectivity was dramatically impaired, correlating with the decreased incorporation of BDV G species into viral particles. These findings support the view that the propagation of BDV within the central nervous systems of infected hosts involves both a primary infection that follows a receptor-mediated endocytosis pathway and a subsequent cell-to-cell spread that is independent of the expression of the primary receptor and does not require the processing of BDV G into GP1 and GP2.
Clemente, Roberto; de la Torre, Juan C.
Movements of animals and animal products are one of the most important ways of disease introduction and spread between regions and countries. Maybe one of the most complex animal species in terms of diversity of uses, nature and extent of movements are equidae, for which animal movement records are usually not available. The study presented here is the first characterization of a complete and reliable network of equidae movements in Castile and Leon, which is one of the most important equidae production regions of Spain. Social network analysis and space-time cluster analysis were used to describe the contact patterns of the equidae network and to identify the most important premises, areas and time periods for potential disease introduction or spread into the region. The studied network was complex, with very heterogeneous types of premises and diverse nature and extent of the movements compared with other livestock species, which have important implications for prevention and control of equidae diseases. Centrality measures revealed that production and reproduction farms and centres of livestock competition were the most important type of premises in the studied network. Cluster analyses allowed to identify seventeen significant spatio-temporal clusters of premises at high risk of dispatching or receiving equidae, which formed four interconnected compartments. These clusters were mainly located in the north-west region and in the second part of the year. The results of this study may be useful to design risk-based surveillance and control programmes of equidae diseases and increase the speed of detection and control of potential secondary outbreaks in future epidemics. Consequently, these results will help to minimize the great economic and sanitary impact of equidae diseases. The analytical approach used here may be easily extended to characterize the equidae movement patterns in other countries and regions of the world. PMID:22830597
Sánchez-Matamoros, A; Martínez-López, B; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, F; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an infectious disease which impacts cattle production in sub-Saharan Africa. To adequately allocate resources for its control, there is a need to assess its impact on cattle producers. The present study estimated the impact of CBPP on pastoralists through analysis of various strategies employed for its control in cattle herds including: preventive vaccination, antimicrobial treatment, slaughter of clinical cases and other combinations of these control strategies. The assessment was based on a loss-expenditure frontier framework to identify a control strategy with minimum cost from both expenditures on control strategies and output losses due to mortalities, reduced milk yield, reduced weight gain and reduced fertility rate. The analysis was undertaken in a stochastic spreadsheet model. The control strategy with minimum cost per herd was preventive vaccination with an estimated cost of US$ 193 (90% CI; 170-215) per 100 cows per year, while slaughter of clinical cases had an estimated cost of US$ 912 (90% CI; 775-1055) per 100 cows per year. The impact of CBPP to the nation was estimated at US$ 7.6 (90% CI; 6.5-8.7) million per year. Yet, if all pastoralists whose cattle are at high risk of infection adopted preventive vaccination, the aggregate national impact would be US$ 3.3 (90% CI; 2.9-3.7) million per year, with savings amounting to US$ 4.3 million through reallocation of control expenditures. The analysis predicted that control of CBPP in Kenya is profitable through preventive vaccination. However, further research is recommended for the technical and financial feasibility of implementing a vaccine delivery system in pastoral areas where CBPP is endemic. PMID:24767814
Onono, J O; Wieland, B; Rushton, J
Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia is a severe disease affecting goats in Eastern Africa and the Middle East, caused by Mycoplasma sp. type F38. Its exact geographical distribution is however not exactly known due to the lack of specificity of the available serological tests and the difficulty in cultivating M. sp. F38. A panel of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) was produced, using crude or membrane proteins antigens from type F38 strains to immunize mice. The reactivity of the mAbs was tested by an immunobinding assay with crude mycoplasma antigens spotted on nitrocellulose filters. One hundred and twelve antigens, standardized at 0.5 mg protein/ml, were used. Mycoplasma strains were chosen among closely related species of the "mycoides cluster", M. capricolum, Group 7 of Leach, M. mycoides mycoides LC, M. mycoides mycoides SC, M. mycoides capri, as well as among species that are isolated from goat lungs, M. arginini, M. ovipneumoniae, M. putrefaciens, M. agalactiae. Out of 60 mAbs, 4 were chosen to build an identification test for mycoplasmas of the "mycoides cluster". Controls showed that accurate identification could be hampered by antigenic heterogeneity within the M. capricolum species. One mAb was used for the direct detection of M. sp. F38 antigen in pleural fluid from goats suspected of CCPP. The sensitivity of the test can be estimated at 0.5 micrograms protein/ml. Comparison with isolation results show a 74% agreement between the two methods. The same mAb was used to build a blocking ELISA. This serological test was strictly specific for CCPP. It detects antibodies in sera of naturally infected or artificially immunized animals while it remained negative with hyperimmune sera to related strains such as PG 50. Direct antigen detection and blocking ELISA are tools that may enable a better assessment of CCPP distribution. PMID:7975145
Thiaucourt, F; Bölske, G; Libeau, G; Le Goff, C; Lefèvre, P C
Bluetongue (BT) is a commonly cited example of a disease with a distribution believed to have recently expanded in response to global warming. The BT virus is transmitted to ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides, and it has been hypothesized that the emergence of BT in Mediterranean Europe during the last two decades is a consequence of the recent colonization of the region by Culicoides imicola and linked to climate change. To better understand the mechanism responsible for the northward spread of BT, we tested the hypothesis of a recent colonization of Italy by C. imicola, by obtaining samples from more than 60 localities across Italy, Corsica, Southern France, and Northern Africa (the hypothesized source point for the recent invasion of C. imicola), and by genotyping them with 10 newly identified microsatellite loci. The patterns of genetic variation within and among the sampled populations were characterized and used in a rigorous approximate Bayesian computation framework to compare three competing historical hypotheses related to the arrival and establishment of C. imicola in Italy. The hypothesis of an ancient presence of the insect vector was strongly favoured by this analysis, with an associated P ? 99%, suggesting that causes other than the northward range expansion of C. imicola may have supported the emergence of BT in southern Europe. Overall, this study illustrates the potential of molecular genetic markers for exploring the assumed link between climate change and the spread of diseases. PMID:23496796
Mardulyn, Patrick; Goffredo, Maria; Conte, Annamaria; Hendrickx, Guy; Meiswinkel, Rudolf; Balenghien, Thomas; Sghaier, Soufien; Lohr, Youssef; Gilbert, Marius
During the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the UK, initial dissemination of the disease to widespread geographical regions was attributed to livestock movement, especially of sheep. In response, recording schemes to provide accurate data describing the movement of large livestock in Great Britain (GB) were introduced. Using these data, we reconstruct directed contact networks within the sheep industry
Istvan Z. Kiss; Darren M. Green; Rowland R. Kao
Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) of the H5 and H7 subtypes primarily infect poultry but are occasionally transmitted to humans and other mammalian species, often causing severe disease. Previously we have shown that HPAIV H5N1 causes severe systemic disease in cats. In this study, we investigated whether HPAIV H7N7 isolated from a fatal human case is also able to cause disease in cats. Additionally, we compared the cell tropism of both viruses by immunohistochemistry and virus histochemistry. Three domestic cats were inoculated intratracheally with HPAIV H7N7. Virus excretion was restricted to the pharynx. At necropsy, 7 days post inoculation, lesions were restricted to the respiratory tract in all cats. Lesions consisted of diffuse alveolar damage and colocalized with virus antigen expression in type II pneumocytes and nonciliated bronchiolar cells. The attachment patterns of HPAIV H7N7 and H5N1 were similar: both viruses attached to nonciliated bronchiolar epithelial cells, type II pneumocytes, as well as alveolar macrophages. These data show for the first time that a non-H5 HPAIV is able to infect and cause respiratory disease in cats. The failure of HPAIV H7N7 to spread beyond the respiratory tract was not explained by differences in cell tropism compared to HPAIV H5N1. These findings suggest that HPAIV H5N1 possesses other characteristics that allow it to cause systemic disease in both humans and cats.
van Riel, Debby; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F.; van Amerongen, Geert; Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.; Kuiken, Thijs
Yawn contagion is not restricted to humans and has also been reported for several non-human animal species, including chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes). Contagious yawning may lead to synchronisation of behaviour. However, the function of contagious yawning is relatively understudied. In this study, we investigated the function of contagious yawning by focusing on two types of signal providers: close social associates and leaders. We provided a captive chimpanzee colony with videos of all individuals of their own group that were either yawning, or at rest. Consistent with other studies, we demonstrated that yawning is contagious for chimpanzees, yet we did not find any effect of relationship quality on yawn contagion. However, we show that yawn contagion is significantly higher when the video model is a yawning male than when the video model was a yawning female, and that this effect is most apparent among males. As males are dominant in chimpanzee societies, male signals may be more relevant to the rest of the group than female signals. Moreover, since chimpanzees form male-bonded societies, male signals are especially relevant for other males. Therefore, we suggest that the sex-differences of yawning contagion among chimpanzees reflect the function of yawning in the synchronisation of behaviour. PMID:22808234
Massen, Jorg J M; Vermunt, Dorith A; Sterck, Elisabeth H M
This article proposes a theory-based contagious motivation model focusing on enhancing student perceptions of group projects and ultimately course satisfaction. Moreover, drawing from both pedagogical and organizational behavior literatures, a model is presented that ties together intrinsic motivation theory with social contagion and…
Krishen, Anjala S.
Monoclonal antibody WM-25 inhibited the in vitro growth of 13 F38 isolates from goats with contagious caprine pleuropneumonia but not 7 heterologous mycoplasma isolates representing four different species. In contrast to results with polyclonal antisera, growth inhibition by monoclonal antibody WM-25 was specific for F38 mycoplasma isolates and constituted a reliable means of distinguishing F38 from other mycoplasmas.
Rurangirwa, F R; McGuire, T C; Musoke, A J; Kibor, A
The aim of this study was to control endemic contagious agalactia due to Mycoplasma agalactiae in a semi-extensive goat herd by means of vaccination with an inactivated vaccine. Groups of 400 goats were vaccinated one month before and three months after parturition (group A), one month before and four months after parturition (group B), and two months and one month
L Leon Vizcaino; F Garrido Abellan; MJ Cubero Pablo; A Perales
The authors conducted 4 studies suggesting that children attribute different modes of transmission to genetic disorders and contagious illnesses. Study 1 presented preschoolers through 5th graders and adults with "switched-at-birth" scenarios for various disorders. Study 2 presented preschoolers with the same disorders but used contagion links in…
Raman, Lakshmi; Gelman, Susan A.
Evaluation of strategies for the eradication of Pseudorabies virus (Aujeszky's disease) in commercial swine farms in Chiang-Mai and Lampoon Provinces, Thailand, using a simulation disease spread model.
Several strategies for eradicating Pseudorabies virus (Aujeszky's disease) in Chiang-Mai and Lampoon Provinces, Thailand, were compared using a computer simulation model, the North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). The duration of the outbreak, the number of affected herds and the number of destroyed herds were compared during these simulated outbreaks. Depopulation, zoning for restricted movement and improved detection and vaccination strategies were assessed. The most effective strategies to eradicate Pseudorabies as per the findings from this study are applying depopulation strategies with MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS in 3-, 8- and 16-km ZONES surrounding infected herds and enhancing the eradication with vaccination campaign on 16-km radius surrounding infected herds. PMID:23033968
Ketusing, N; Reeves, A; Portacci, K; Yano, T; Olea-Popelka, F; Keefe, T; Salman, M
The role of some ingredients that contaminate the ambient air in the occurrence and development of allergic diseases was studied. The closest relationships were found between the concentrations of hydrogen sulfide and the prevalence of eczema (rxy +/- m = 0.48 +/- 0.15). There was a direct correlation between the concentrations of each ingredient and the incidence of neurodermitis among children. The correlation between the summarized concentrations of ingredients and the incidence of bronchial asthma among children was rxy +/- m = 0.71 +/- 0.19. The findings serves as the basis for elaborating measures to reduce ecological tension and the incidence of allergic diseases in children. PMID:12380496
Galeev, K A; Khakimova, R F
During the 1990s, an epidemic of an unusually severe form of cassava mosaic virus disease (CMD) has expanded to cover virtually all of Uganda, and substantial areas in the neighbouring countries of Kenya, Tanzania, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Losses in the generally sensitive local cassava cultivars have been so great that a common farmer response to the
J. P Legg
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an economically important disease in most of sub-Saharan Africa. A conjoint analysis and ordered probit regression models were used to measure the preferences of farmers for CBPP vaccine and vaccination attributes. This was with regard to inclusion or not of an indicator in the vaccine, vaccine safety, vaccine stability as well as frequency of vaccination, vaccine administration and the nature of vaccination. The analysis was carried out in 190 households in Narok District of Kenya between October and December 2006 using structured questionnaires, 16 attribute profiles and a five-point Likert scale. The factors affecting attribute valuation were shown through a two-way location interaction model. The study also demonstrated the relative importance (RI) of attributes and the compensation value of attribute levels. The attribute coefficient estimates showed that farmers prefer a vaccine that has an indicator, is 100% safe and is administered by the government (p<0.0001). The preferences for the vaccine attributes were consistent with expectations. Preferences for stability, frequency of vaccination and nature of vaccination differed amongst farmers (p>0.05). While inclusion of an indicator in the vaccine was the most important attribute (RI=43.6%), price was the least important (RI=0.5%). Of the 22 household factors considered, 15 affected attribute valuation. The compensation values for a change from non inclusion to inclusion of an indicator, 95-100% safety, 2h to greater than 2h stability and from compulsory to elective vaccination were positive while those for a change from annual to biannual vaccination and from government to private administration were negative. The study concluded that the farmers in Narok District had preferences for specific vaccine and vaccination attributes. These preferences were conditioned by various household characteristics and disease risk factors. On average the farmers would need to be compensated or persuaded to accept biannual and private vaccination against CBPP. There is need for consideration of farmer preferences for vaccine attribute levels during vaccine formulations and farmer preferences for vaccination attribute levels when designing delivery of vaccines. PMID:23465609
Kairu-Wanyoike, Salome W; Kaitibie, Simeon; Taylor, Nick M; Gitau, George K; Heffernan, Claire; Schnier, Christian; Kiara, Henry; Taracha, Evans; McKeever, Declan
Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae (Mccp) is the causative agent of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), a devastating disease of domestic goats. The exact distribution of CCPP is not known but it is present in Africa and the Middle East and represents a significant threat to many disease-free areas including Europe. Furthermore, CCPP has been recently identified in Tajikistan and China. A typing method with an improved resolution based on Multi-Locus Sequence Analysis (MLSA) has been developed to trace new epidemics and to elucidate whether the recently identified cases in continental Asia were due to recent importation of Mccp. The H2 locus, a polymorphic region already in use as a molecular marker for Mccp evolution, was complemented with seven new loci selected according to the analysis of polymorphisms observed among the genome sequences of three Mccp strains. A total of 25 strains, including the two new strains from Asia, were analysed by MLSA resulting in the discrimination of 15 sequence types based on 53 polymorphic positions. A distance tree inferred from the concatenated sequences of the eight selected loci revealed two evolutionary lineages comprising five groups, which showed good correlation with geographic origins. The presence of a distinct Asian cluster strongly indicates that CCPP was not recently imported to continental Asia. It is more likely that the disease has been endemic in the area for a long time, as supported by historical clinical descriptions. In conclusion, this MLSA strategy constitutes a highly discriminative tool for the molecular epidemiology of CCPP.
accelerated cell death 2 (acd2) mutants of Arabidopsis have spontaneous spreading cell death lesions and constitutive activation of defenses in the absence of pathogen infection. Lesion formation in acd2 plants can be triggered by the bacterial toxin coronatine through a light-dependent process. Coronatine-triggered and spontaneous lesion spreading in acd2 plants also requires protein translation, indicating that cell death occurs by an active process. We have cloned the ACD2 gene; its predicted product shows significant and extensive similarity to red chlorophyll catabolite reductase, which catalyzes one step in the breakdown of the porphyrin component of chlorophyll [Wüthrich, K. L., Bovet, L., Hunziger, P. E., Donnison, I. S. & Hörtensteiner, S. (2000) Plant J. 21, 189–198]. Consistent with this, ACD2 protein contains a predicted chloroplast transit peptide, is processed in vivo, and purifies with the chloroplast fraction in subcellular fractionation experiments. At some stages of development, ACD2 protein also purifies with the mitochondrial fraction. We hypothesize that cell death in acd2 plants is caused by the accumulation of chlorophyll breakdown products. Such catabolites might be specific triggers for cell death or they might induce cellular damage through their ability to absorb light and emit electrons that generate free radicals. In response to infection by Pseudomonas syringae, transgenic plants expressing excess ACD2 protein show reduced disease symptoms but not reduced growth of bacteria. Thus, breakdown products of chlorophyll may act to amplify the symptoms of disease, including cell death and yellowing. We suggest that economically important plants overexpressing ACD2 might also show increased tolerance to pathogens and might be useful for increasing crop yields.
Mach, Jennifer M.; Castillo, Andrea R.; Hoogstraten, Rebecca; Greenberg, Jean T.
Foot and mouth disease is a highly contagious but not necessarily fatal viral infection that is transmitted through dust particles in the air, infecting the hooves and mouths of pigs, cattle, sheep, and goats. In recent weeks, a string of cases have been reported in England, sparking fears of another repeat of the epidemic of 1967, in which over 400,000 animals were destroyed. Farmers and government officials have so far followed the standard plan for dealing with such outbreaks: isolate affected farms and destroy infected herds. As part of this effort, local authorities have been empowered to prevent all foot traffic in designated areas and there has even been talk of delaying the impending general election in Britain for fear that politicians and staff on the campaign trail might spread the disease. This site, a special report from the BBC, contains breaking news, analysis, background information, and audio and video selections.
Diffusion tensor imaging can identify amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-associated patterns of brain alterations at the group level. Recently, a neuropathological staging system for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis has shown that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis may disseminate in a sequential regional pattern during four disease stages. The objective of the present study was to apply a new methodological diffusion tensor imaging-based approach to automatically analyse in vivo the fibre tracts that are prone to be involved at each neuropathological stage of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Two data samples, consisting of 130 diffusion tensor imaging data sets acquired at 1.5 T from 78 patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and 52 control subjects; and 55 diffusion-tensor imaging data sets at 3.0 T from 33 patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and 22 control subjects, were analysed by a tract of interest-based fibre tracking approach to analyse five tracts that become involved during the course of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: the corticospinal tract (stage 1); the corticorubral and the corticopontine tracts (stage 2); the corticostriatal pathway (stage 3); the proximal portion of the perforant path (stage 4); and two reference pathways. The statistical analyses of tracts of interest showed differences between patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and control subjects for all tracts. The significance level of the comparisons at the group level was lower, the higher the disease stage with corresponding involved fibre tracts. Both the clinical phenotype as assessed by the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale-revised and disease duration correlated significantly with the resulting staging scheme. In summary, the tract of interest-based technique allowed for individual analysis of predefined tract structures, thus making it possible to image in vivo the disease stages in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. This approach can be used not only for individual clinical work-up purposes, but enlarges the spectrum of potential non-invasive surrogate markers as a neuroimaging-based read-out for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis studies within a clinical context. PMID:24736303
Kassubek, Jan; Müller, Hans-Peter; Del Tredici, Kelly; Brettschneider, Johannes; Pinkhardt, Elmar H; Lulé, Dorothée; Böhm, Sarah; Braak, Heiko; Ludolph, Albert C
The white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) is an important reservoir host for Borrelia burgdorferi, the pathogen responsible for Lyme disease, and its distribution is expanding northward. We used an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis to identify the climatic factors associated with the distribution shift of the white-footed mouse over the last 30 years at the northern edge of its range, and modeled its current and potential future (2050) distributions using the platform BIOMOD. A mild and shorter winter is favouring the northern expansion of the white-footed mouse in Québec. With more favorable winter conditions projected by 2050, the distribution range of the white-footed mouse is expected to expand further northward by 3° latitude. We also show that today in southern Québec, the occurrence of B. burgdorferi is associated with high probability of presence of the white-footed mouse. Changes in the distribution of the white-footed mouse will likely alter the geographical range of B. burgdorferi and impact the public health in northern regions that have yet to be exposed to Lyme disease.
Roy-Dufresne, Emilie; Logan, Travis; Simon, Julie A.; Chmura, Gail L.; Millien, Virginie
Many mycoplasmas have been isolated from sheep and goats but only a small number have been linked directly to disease. The two most important are Mycoplasma agalactiae, the cause of contagious agalactia (CA), and M. capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae, the cause of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) which between them are responsible for significant economic losses especially in developing countries. Their prevalence
R. A. J Nicholas
Triatoma infestans, now eliminated from most of South America by control campaigns, has been and still is the main Chagas disease vector due to its ability to colonize rural dwellings. The traditional hypothesis put forth to explain T. infestans adaptation to the synanthropic environment rests on the domestication of wild guinea pigs, one of its natural hosts, by Andean tribes about 5000 BC. Here we present two new hypotheses, based on organized human social activities. The first involves maize production, storage and distribution during the Inca period. Maize granaries could host wild rodent populations that would attract sylvatic T. infestans that were later dispersed during maize distribution. The second hypothesis is associated with the contemporary Urkupiña Virgin festival, near Cochabamba, where thousands of pilgrims gather for rituals in an area that is part of a sylvatic T. infestans focus, thus favoring the contact with the insects and leading to their passive dispersal. PMID:20060504
Cortez, M R; Monteiro, F A; Noireau, F
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides (Mmm) is an economically very important cattle disease in sub-Saharan Africa. CBPP impacts animal health and poverty of livestock-dependent people through decreased animal productivity, reduced food supply, and the cost of control measures. CBPP is a barrier to trade in many African countries and this reduces the value of livestock and the income of many value chain stakeholders. The presence of CBPP also poses a constant threat to CBPP-free countries and creates costs in terms of the measures necessary to ensure the exclusion of disease. This opinion focuses on the biomedical research needed to foster the development of better control measures for CBPP. We suggest that different vaccine development approaches are followed in parallel. Basic immunology studies and systematic OMICs studies will be necessary in order to identify the protective arms of immunity and to shed more light on the pathogenicity mechanisms in CBPP. Moreover a robust challenge model and a close collaboration with African research units will be crucial to foster and implement a new vaccine for the progressive control of this cattle plague. PMID:24359340
Jores, Joerg; Mariner, Jeffrey C; Naessens, Jan
A new detection test for the mycoplasmas causing contagious agalactia, Mycoplasma agalactiae, M. capricolum subsp. capricolum and M. mycoides subsp. mycoldes L.C., was developed. It was based on two polymerase chain reaction assays: the Ma-PCR for the detection of M. agalactiae and the MYC-PCR for the ‘mycoides cluster’ thus including M. capricolum subsp. capricolum and M. mycoides subsp. mycoides L.C.
Laurence Dedieu; Viviane Mady; Pierre-Charles Lefevre
In the course of developing a living attenuated feline infectious enteritis (panleucopaenia) vaccine, it was found that respiratory disease-infected cats newly inoculated with this vaccine spread vaccine virus to respiratory disease-infected in-contact controls. These in-contact controls were able to infect other cats with which they were placed in contact so that after five natural transmissions in this way and two oral administrations and subsequent re-isolations, reversion to virulence became evident. It is clear that before general release of a new living feline infectious enteritis vaccine, there must be satisfactory evidence that concurrent infection will not affect the safety of the modified antigen.In cats infected with feline infectious enteritis there appears to be a short period, coinciding with the onset of leucopaenia, during which they are highly infectious. It seems possible that some infected animals may become immune carriers because virus has been recovered from the small intestine of two of four cats with significant antibody titres 22-24 days after exposure to infection. PMID:4332509
O'Reilly, K J
Airborne transmission of Pneumocystis carinii has been established, but the infective form and the sources of infection remain unknown. Animal models for studies of P. carinii have previously been limited to immunosuppressed rodents; however, this study was performed with nonimmunodepressed P. carinii-free rabbits. This study was aimed at determining (i) the delay between inoculation of animals (day zero [D0]) and the onset of contagiousness and (ii) the end of contagiousness of these animals (donors). Five-week-old rabbits were used as contact animals and were housed with the donors. The cohabitation periods were for 4 or 5 days from D0 to D4, D4 to D8, D8 to D13, D13 to D18, and D18 to D22. The highest parasite burdens were observed in contact animals housed with donors from D8 to D13 or D13 to D18. This period (8th to 18th day following the day of inoculation of donors) might correspond to the highest phase of contagiousness of donors.
Cere, N; Polack, B; Chanteloup, N K; Coudert, P
Experiments were done to determine if transporting live screwworms Cochliomyia hominivorax Coquerel (Diptera: Calliphoridae) for developing new strains from countries where foot-and-mouth disease and classical swine fever are endemic, to the mass rearing facilities in Mexico and Panama, may introduce these exotic diseases into these countries. Are screwworms capable of harboring and spreading foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and classical swine fever virus (CSFV) when they are grown in virus-inoculated larval rearing medium? In one experiment, screwworm larvae were reared in a FMDV-inoculated artificial medium containing either 0.1 % formaldehyde or antibiotics as an antimicrobial agent. In another experiment, larvae were similarly reared in a CSFV-inoculated artificial medium containing 0.1% formaldehyde. In each experiment, samples of larvae and the rearing media were collected daily until pupation occurred. The presence of FMDV was assayed by observing cytopathic effects on cell cultures and a conventional reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR); CSFV was assayed using an avidin-biotin complex assay and a conventional RT-PCR. For media containing antibiotics, FMDV was detected in a larval sample collected on day 1 and in media samples on days 1, 2 and 3. No FMDV was detected from larval and media samples collected on all other days. For media containing formaldehyde, FMDV and CSFV were not detectable in larval or media samples collected on all sampling days. These results indicate that FMDV and CSFV cannot survive in rearing medium containing formaldehyde as an antimicrobial agent. Therefore, insects collected in endemic regions and reared using formaldehyde-containing medium for at least one generation at the collection site should be free of FMDV and CSFV and can be transported safely to a strain development/mass rearing facility.
Chaudhury, M. F.; Ward, G. B.; Skoda, S. R.; Deng, M.Y.; Welch, J. B.; McKenna, T. S.
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides (Mmm) is a severe cattle disease, present in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The development of improved diagnostic tests and vaccines for CBPP control remains a research priority. Polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and mass spectrometry were used to characterize the Triton X-114 soluble proteome of nine Mmm strains isolated from Europe or Africa. Of a total of 250 proteins detected, 67 were present in all strains investigated. Of these, 44 were predicted to be lipoproteins or cytoplasmic membrane-associated proteins and are thus likely to be members of the core in vitro surface membrane-associated proteome of Mmm. Moreover, the presence of all identified proteins in other ruminant Mycoplasma pathogens were investigated. Two proteins of the core proteome were identified only in other cattle pathogens of the genus Mycoplasma pointing towards a role in host-pathogen interactions. The data generated will facilitate the identification and prioritization of candidate Mycoplasma antigens for improved control measures, as it is likely that surface-exposed membrane proteins will include those that are involved in host-pathogen interactions. PMID:24332827
Krasteva, Ivanka; Liljander, Anne; Fischer, Anne; Smith, David G E; Inglis, Neil F; Scacchia, Massimo; Pini, Attilio; Jores, Joerg; Sacchini, Flavio
The 1278insTATC is the most prevalent beta-hexosaminidase A ( HEXA) gene mutation causing Tay-Sachs disease (TSD), one of the four lysosomal storage diseases (LSDs) occurring at elevated frequencies among Ashkenazi Jews (AJs). To investigate the genetic history of this mutation in the AJ population, a conserved haplotype (D15S981:175-D15S131:240-D15S1050:284-D15S197:144-D15S188:418) was identified in 1278insTATC chromosomes from 55 unrelated AJ individuals (15 homozygotes and 40 heterozygotes for the TSD mutation), suggesting the occurrence of a common founder. When two methods were used for analysis of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between flanking polymorphic markers and the disease locus and for the study of the decay of LD over time, the estimated age of the insertion was found to be 40+/-12 generations (95% confidence interval: 30-50 generations), so that the most recent common ancestor of the mutation-bearing chromosomes would date to the 8th-9th century. This corresponds with the demographic expansion of AJs in central Europe, following the founding of the Ashkenaz settlement in the early Middle Ages. The results are consistent with the geographic distribution of the main TSD mutation, 1278insTATC being more common in central Europe, and with the coalescent times of mutations causing two other LSDs, Gaucher disease and mucolipidosis type IV. Evidence for the absence of a determinant positive selection (heterozygote advantage) over the mutation is provided by a comparison between the estimated age of 1278insTATC and the probability of the current AJ frequency of the mutant allele as a function of its age, calculated by use of a branching-process model. Therefore, the founder effect in a rapidly expanding population arising from a bottleneck provides a robust parsimonious hypothesis explaining the spread of 1278insTATC-linked TSD in AJ individuals. PMID:14727180
Frisch, Amos; Colombo, Roberto; Michaelovsky, Elena; Karpati, Mazal; Goldman, Boleslaw; Peleg, Leah
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an economically important trans-boundary cattle disease which affects food security and livelihoods. A conjoint analysis–contingent valuation was carried out on 190 households in Narok South District of Kenya to measure willingness to pay (WTP) and demand for CBPP vaccine and vaccination as well as factors affecting WTP. The mean WTP was calculated at Kenya Shillings (KSh) 212.48 (USD 3.03) for vaccination using a vaccine with the characteristics that were preferred by the farmers (preferred vaccine and vaccination) and KSh ?71.45 (USD ?1.02) for the currently used vaccine and vaccination. The proportion of farmers willing to pay an amount greater than zero was 66.7% and 34.4% for the preferred and current vaccine and vaccination respectively. About one third (33.3%) of farmers would need to be compensated an average amount of KSh 1162.62 (USD 13.68) per animal to allow their cattle to be vaccinated against CBPP using the preferred vaccine and vaccination. About two-thirds (65.6%) of farmers would need to be compensated an average amount of KSh 853.72 (USD 12.20) per animal to allow their cattle to be vaccinated against CBPP using the current vaccine and vaccination. The total amount of compensation would be KSh 61.39 million (USD 0.88 million) for the preferred vaccine and vaccination and KSh 90.15 million (USD 1.29 million) for the current vaccine and vaccination. Demand curves drawn from individual WTP demonstrated that only 59% and 27% of cattle owners with a WTP greater than zero were willing to pay a benchmark cost of KSh 34.60 for the preferred and current vaccine respectively. WTP was negatively influenced by the attitude about household economic situation (p = 0.0078), presence of cross breeds in the herd (p < 0.0001) and years since CBPP had been experienced in the herd (p = 0.0375). It was positively influenced by education (p = 0.0251) and the practice of treating against CBPP (p = 0.0432). The benefit cost ratio (BCR) for CBPP vaccination was 2.9–6.1 depending on the vaccination programme. In conclusion, although a proportion of farmers was willing to pay, participation levels may be lower than those required to interrupt transmission of CBPP. Households with characteristics that influence WTP negatively need persuasion to participate in CBPP vaccination. It is economically worthwhile to vaccinate against CBPP. A benefit cost analysis (BCA) using aggregated WTP as benefits can be used as an alternative method to the traditional BCA which uses avoided production losses (new revenue) and costs saved as benefits.
Kairu-Wanyoike, Salome W.; Kaitibie, Simeon; Heffernan, Claire; Taylor, Nick M.; Gitau, George K.; Kiara, Henry; McKeever, Declan
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an economically important trans-boundary cattle disease which affects food security and livelihoods. A conjoint analysis-contingent valuation was carried out on 190 households in Narok South District of Kenya to measure willingness to pay (WTP) and demand for CBPP vaccine and vaccination as well as factors affecting WTP. The mean WTP was calculated at Kenya Shillings (KSh) 212.48 (USD 3.03) for vaccination using a vaccine with the characteristics that were preferred by the farmers (preferred vaccine and vaccination) and KSh -71.45 (USD -1.02) for the currently used vaccine and vaccination. The proportion of farmers willing to pay an amount greater than zero was 66.7% and 34.4% for the preferred and current vaccine and vaccination respectively. About one third (33.3%) of farmers would need to be compensated an average amount of KSh 1162.62 (USD 13.68) per animal to allow their cattle to be vaccinated against CBPP using the preferred vaccine and vaccination. About two-thirds (65.6%) of farmers would need to be compensated an average amount of KSh 853.72 (USD 12.20) per animal to allow their cattle to be vaccinated against CBPP using the current vaccine and vaccination. The total amount of compensation would be KSh 61.39 million (USD 0.88 million) for the preferred vaccine and vaccination and KSh 90.15 million (USD 1.29 million) for the current vaccine and vaccination. Demand curves drawn from individual WTP demonstrated that only 59% and 27% of cattle owners with a WTP greater than zero were willing to pay a benchmark cost of KSh 34.60 for the preferred and current vaccine respectively. WTP was negatively influenced by the attitude about household economic situation (p=0.0078), presence of cross breeds in the herd (p<0.0001) and years since CBPP had been experienced in the herd (p=0.0375). It was positively influenced by education (p=0.0251) and the practice of treating against CBPP (p=0.0432). The benefit cost ratio (BCR) for CBPP vaccination was 2.9-6.1 depending on the vaccination programme. In conclusion, although a proportion of farmers was willing to pay, participation levels may be lower than those required to interrupt transmission of CBPP. Households with characteristics that influence WTP negatively need persuasion to participate in CBPP vaccination. It is economically worthwhile to vaccinate against CBPP. A benefit cost analysis (BCA) using aggregated WTP as benefits can be used as an alternative method to the traditional BCA which uses avoided production losses (new revenue) and costs saved as benefits. PMID:24774477
Kairu-Wanyoike, Salome W; Kaitibie, Simeon; Heffernan, Claire; Taylor, Nick M; Gitau, George K; Kiara, Henry; McKeever, Declan
It was not until November 1989 that the 1,000-bed University-affiliated Hospital de Bellvitge "Princeps d'Espanya" in Barcelona first acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Since that time, the outbreak of MRSA disease has continued. We have analyzed by genomic DNA fingerprinting 189 MRSA isolates collected between late 1989 and the end of 1993. The isolates include both invasive and colonizing strains as well as isolates from health-care workers and environmental sources. In addition, 52 clinical isolates of methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) collected in the same hospital were also analyzed. Isolates were classified into clonal types on the basis of molecular typing techniques. A single MRSA clone (I::B::a) belonging to ClaI type I, pulsed-field gel electrophoretic pattern B, and Tn554 pattern a was responsible for the great majority of infections (73% of blood cultures and 79% of specimens from other clinical sources). This clone appeared at the very beginning of the outbreak, spread throughout the hospital wards, and was also carried by inpatients and health-care workers and on environmental surfaces. In contrast, no dominant lineage was apparent among MSSA isolates (33 distinct pulsed-field gel electrophoretic patterns among 52 isolates). Two MSSA isolates seem to have originated from the dominant clone by deletion of the mecA gene and some additional DNA. In several isolates, different mecA polymorphs were present in identical chromosomal backgrounds or cells with distinct chromosomal backgrounds carried the same mecA polymorph, suggesting horizontal transfer of the mecA gene. Images
Dominguez, M A; de Lencastre, H; Linares, J; Tomasz, A
Background Few serological tests are available for detecting antibodies against Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae, the causal agent of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP). The complement fixation test, the test prescribed for international trade purposes, uses a crude antigen that cross-reacts with all the other mycoplasma species of the “mycoides cluster” frequently infecting goat herds. The lack of a more specific test has been a real obstacle to the evaluation of the prevalence and economic impact of CCPP worldwide. A new competitive ELISA kit for CCPP, based on a previous blocking ELISA, was formatted at CIRAD and used to evaluate the prevalence of CCPP in some regions of Kenya, Ethiopia, Mauritius, Tajikistan and Pakistan in an international collaborative study. Results The strict specificity of the test was confirmed in CCPP-free goat herds exposed to other mycoplasma species of the “mycoides cluster”. Prevalence studies were performed across the enzootic range of the disease in Africa and Asia. Seroprevalence was estimated at 14.6% in the Afar region of Ethiopia, whereas all the herds presented for CCPP vaccination in Kenya tested positive (individual seroprevalence varied from 6 to 90% within each herd). In Mauritius, where CCPP emerged in 2009, nine of 62 herds tested positive. In Central Asia, where the disease was confirmed only recently, no positive animals were detected in the Wakhan District of Afghanistan or across the border in neighboring areas of Tajikistan, whereas seroprevalence varied between 2.7% and 44.2% in the other districts investigated and in northern Pakistan. The test was also used to monitor seroconversion in vaccinated animals. Conclusions This newly formatted CCPP cELISA kit has retained the high specificity of the original kit. It can therefore be used to evaluate the prevalence of CCPP in countries or regions without vaccination programs. It could also be used to monitor the efficacy of vaccination campaigns as high-quality vaccines induce high rates of seroconversion.
This article is the second in a series of several by members of the Committee on the Control of Foodborne Illness of the International Association of Food Protection, and it continues the analysis of 816 outbreaks where food workers were implicated in the spread of foodborne disease. In this article, we discuss case morbidity and mortality and the settings where the 816 outbreaks occurred. Some of the outbreaks were very large; 11 involved more than 1,000 persons, 4 with more than 3,000 ill. The larger outbreaks tended to be extended over several days with a continuing source of infections, such as at festivals, resorts, and community events, or the contaminated product had been shipped to a large number of customers, e.g., icing on cakes or exported raspberries. There were five outbreaks with more than 100 persons hospitalized, with rates ranging from 9.9 to 100%. However, overall, the hospitalization rate was low (1.4%), and deaths were rare (0.11% of the 80,682 cases). Many of the deaths were associated with high-risk persons (i.e., those who had underlying diseases, malnutrition, or both, as in a refugee camp, or young children), but a few occurred with apparently healthy adults. An analysis of the settings for the food worker-related events showed that most of the outbreaks came from food service facilities (376 outbreaks [46.1%]), followed by catered events (126 outbreaks [15.4%]), the home (83 outbreaks [10.2%]), schools and day care centers (49 [6.0%]), and health care institutions (43 outbreaks [5.3%]). However, many cases resulted from relatively few outbreaks (< 30 each) associated with community events (9,726), processing plants (8,580), mobile/temporary service (5,367), and camps/ armed forces (5,117). The single most frequently reported setting was restaurants, with 324 outbreaks and 16,938 cases. Improper hygienic practices in homes, on picnics, or at community events accounted for 89 of the 816 outbreaks. There were 18 outbreaks associated with commercial travel in air flights, trains, and cruise ships over several decades, although only the last seems to be a major concern today. Sixteen outbreaks occurred where food, primarily produce, was harvested and shipped from one country to another. Sometimes the presence of an infected worker preparing food was only one of several factors contributing to the outbreak. PMID:17803160
Todd, Ewen C D; Greig, Judy D; Bartleson, Charles A; Michaels, Barry S
Shedding of prions via faeces may be involved in the transmission of contagious prion diseases. Here, we fed hamsters 10mg of 263K scrapie brain homogenate and examined the faecal excretion of disease-associated prion protein (PrPTSE) during the course of infection. The intestinal fate of ingested PrPTSE was further investigated by monitoring the deposition of the protein in components of the
Dominique Krüger; Achim Thomzig; Gudrun Lenz; Kristin Kampf; Patricia McBride; Michael Beekes
Discussed in this publication are infectious illnesses for which children attending day care appear to be at special risk. Also covered are the common cold, some infectious disease problems receiving media attention, and some other annoying but not serious diseases, such as head lice, pinworms, and contagious skin conditions. Causes,…
Sleator, Esther K.
Recent police shootings in which multiple officers fired numerous rounds at suspects have led some observers to assert that such situations involve "contagious fire," where an initial officer's shots launch a cascade of gunfire from other officers present. Although there is anecdotal recognition of the contagious fire phenomenon among police and…
White, Michael D.; Klinger, David
Feline respiratory disease complex (FRDC) refers to the characteristic acute presentation of a contagious respiratory or ocular disease caused by one or multiple pathogens. Environmental and host factors impact the transmission, clinical presentation, preventive strategy, and treatment of affected cats. The FRDC is especially problematic in settings where large numbers of cats cohabit, including animal shelters, catteries, and semi-feral colonies. Although elimination of FRDC is an unrealistic goal, improved understanding can lead to strategies to minimize disease impact. PMID:22041216
Cohn, Leah A
Contagious agalactia is a mycoplasmal infection caused by Mycoplasma agalactiae, Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides LC, M. mycoides subsp. capri, Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capricolum and Mycoplasma putrefaciens. Identification of the causative organisms is usually performed by isolation and classical biochemical and serological tests, though this is a lengthy and cumbersome process for mycoplasmas. Specific PCR assays have been developed for the
S. Woubit; L. Manso-Silván; S. Lorenzon; P. Gaurivaud; F. Poumarat; M. P. Pellet; V. P. Singh; F. Thiaucourt
Pastoral cattle live in highly structured communities characterized by complex contact patterns. The present paper describes a spatially heterogeneous model for the transmission of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) developed specifically for pastoral communities of East Africa. The model is validated against serological data on the prevalence of CBPP infection in several communities of southern Sudan and against livestock owner information
J. C. Mariner; J. McDermott; J. A. P. Heesterbeek; G. Thomson; P. L. Roeder; S. W. Martin
The study was conducted with the aim of evaluating the xerovac process as a method for preparing contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) vaccine with increased heat resistance. The thermo-protective effects of various concentrations of trehalose in mycoplasma growth medium, various concentrations of trehalose in the dehydration stabilizer and the importance of some divalent cations were assessed. The results obtained indicate that a rapid dehydration of CBPP vaccine following the xerovac method and in an excipient composed of a high concentration of trehalose, renders the product more heat tolerant than a similar vaccine prepared using a regular or an extended freeze drying regime. It was also demonstrated that the addition of chitosan as a mycoplasma precipitating agent conferred additional heat resistance to the vaccine. It is suggested that the application of the xerovac process in the dehydration of CBPP vaccine offers the advantages of a faster, cheaper and easier process over the conventional dehydration methods like freeze drying. PMID:15780439
Litamoi, J K; Ayelet, G; Rweyemamu, M M
Nowadays, hereditary diseases are viewed through molecular mechanisms, and one of them, which keeps occurring rather frequently in medical publications, has been named after the Island of Mljet. The world first learned about mal de Meleda from a Dubrovnik physician Luka Stulli in 1826. He described it in a number of his island patients as a non-contagious hereditary skin disease, and named it mal de Meleda (a disease of Mljet). After Stulli, numerous scientists continued to investigate its aetiology and distinctive properties, introducing new scientific procedures to research the disease. The article keeps track of the way people and medicine perceived and treated mal de Meleda patients, starting from the early 19th century to the present day. It pays special attention to how the disease was perceived and described in medical literature through history. There are no reports in writing about the disease before the 19th century, but in oral tradition it was perceived as a punishment for the sins of sacrilege, sins of piracy, or even as leftovers of leprosy brought by the crusaders. We investigated if these legends have any support in preserved historical documents and to what extent they are related to real historical events and circumstances. Influenced by the booming research in microbiology, end 19th century physicians believed the disease was an isolated focus of leprosy. However, early 20th century physicians defined it as a hereditary skin disease with changes which distinguish it from other skin conditions. Genetic nature of the disease was later confirmed by molecular science. As for its geographical origin, the most recent medical research has shown that mal de Meleda is not restricted to the island of Mljet, and that it is spread worldwide, particularly in regions that, historically, were the trading routes of the Dubrovnik Republic. This implies that the mutation has spread through migration and persists only because it is not lethal and does not affect reproduction. PMID:21073245
In this paper, partial spread OFDM system has been presented and its performance has been studied when different detection techniques are employed, such as minimum mean square error (MMSE), grouped Maximum Likelihood (ML) and approximated integer quadratic programming (IQP) techniques . The performance study also includes applying two different spreading matrices, Hadamard and Vandermonde. Extensive computer simulation have been implemented and important results show that partial spread OFDM system improves the BER performance and the frequency diversity of OFDM compared to both non spread and full spread systems. The results from this paper also show that partial spreading technique combined with suboptimal detector could be a better solution for applications that require low receiver complexity and high information detectability.
Elghariani, Ali; Zoltowski, Michael D.
Mycoplasma agalactiae is a major pathogen of sheep and goats in many areas of the world and particularly in Mediterranean countries. It causes contagious agalactia, an infectious disease primarily affecting mammary glands. Many vaccines against the pathogen are currently under development. The aim of the study was to investigate the involvement of T cell-mediated immunity during vaccination and challenge experiments against Mycoplasma agalactiae. A comparison of the antigen-specific expansion of interferon gamma positive T cell memory and naïve subsets was performed between vaccinated and non-vaccinated sheep to identify cellular subsets whose activation was different between protected and non-protected sheep. Data reported in this manuscript demonstrated that two out of the three vaccines used in this study protected sheep from the disease. In the protected groups CD4(+) memory interferon-?(+) T cells underwent an early expansion (p<0.05 when compared to unprotected groups), whilst memory CD8(+) Interferon-?(+) T cells increased in non-protected animals 7 days after infection (p<0.05). ??(+) Interferon-?(+) T cells reached peaks of expansion in infected and in two vaccinated groups thus indicating that these cells are not preferentially involved in protection or pathogenesis (p<0.05). Hereby we propose that the early activation of CD4(+) memory Interferon-?(+) T cells could be considered as a marker of protection from the disease as well as a tool to establish vaccine efficacy. PMID:23333193
Agnone, Annalisa; La Manna, Marco P; Loria, Guido R; Puleio, Roberto; Villari, Sara; Nicholas, Robin A J; Guggino, Giuliana; Sireci, Guido
The reaction-diffusion (RD) model of epidemic spreading generally assume that contagion occurs only at the nodes of network, i.e., the links are used only for migration/diffusion of agents. However, in reality, we observe that contagion occurs also among the travelers staying in the same car, train or plane etc., which consist of the links of network. To reflect the contagious effect of links, we here present a traveling-contagion model where contagion occurs not only at nodes but also at links. Considering that the population density in transportation is generally much larger than that in districts, we introduce different infection rates for the nodes and links, respectively, whose two extreme cases correspond to the type-I and type-II reactions in the RD model [V. Colizza, R. Pastor-Satorras, A. Vespignani, Nat. Phys. 3, 276 (2007)]. Through studying three typical diffusion processes, we reveal both numerically and theoretically that the contagion at links can accelerate significantly the epidemic spreading. This finding is helpful in designing the controlling strategies of epidemic spreading.
Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Liu, Zonghua
The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is at risk of extinction owing to the emergence of a contagious cancer known as devil facial tumour disease (DFTD). The emergence and spread of DFTD has been linked to low genetic diversity in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). We examined MHC diversity in historical and ancient devils to determine whether loss of diversity is recent or predates European settlement in Australia. Our results reveal no additional diversity in historical Tasmanian samples. Mainland devils had common modern variants plus six new variants that are highly similar to existing alleles. We conclude that low MHC diversity has been a feature of devil populations since at least the Mid-Holocene and could explain their tumultuous history of population crashes.
Morris, Katrina; Austin, Jeremy J.; Belov, Katherine
The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is at risk of extinction owing to the emergence of a contagious cancer known as devil facial tumour disease (DFTD). The emergence and spread of DFTD has been linked to low genetic diversity in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). We examined MHC diversity in historical and ancient devils to determine whether loss of diversity is recent or predates European settlement in Australia. Our results reveal no additional diversity in historical Tasmanian samples. Mainland devils had common modern variants plus six new variants that are highly similar to existing alleles. We conclude that low MHC diversity has been a feature of devil populations since at least the Mid-Holocene and could explain their tumultuous history of population crashes. PMID:23221872
Morris, Katrina; Austin, Jeremy J; Belov, Katherine
The factors that enhance the transmission of pathogens during epidemic spread are ill defined. Water-borne spread of the diarrhoeal disease cholera occurs rapidly in nature, whereas infection of human volunteers with bacteria grown in vitro is difficult in the absence of stomach acid buffering. It is unclear, however, whether stomach acidity is a principal factor contributing to epidemic spread. Here
D. Scott Merrell; Susan M. Butler; Firdausi Qadri; Nadia A. Dolganov; Ahsfaqul Alam; Mitchell B. Cohen; Stephen B. Calderwood; Gary K. Schoolnik; Andrew Camilli
The spread of a rumor can be modeled as a classroom with n students and, on day one, a person is told a rumor. On day two, this person draws a number at random. If they draw their own number, the rumor is not spread and the process is repeated the next day. However, if they choose any number besides
NICK FEDEWA; ALEXANDRA SISSON; JAMES ANGELOS
Recent reviews of our understanding of flame spread across liquids show that there are many unresolved issues regarding the phenomenology and causal mechanisms affecting ignition susceptibility, flame spread characteristics, and flame spread rates. One area of discrepancy is the effect of buoyancy in both the uniform and pulsating spread regimes. The approach we have taken to resolving the importance of buoyancy for these flames is: (1) normal gravity (1g) and microgravity (micro g) experiments; and (2) numerical modeling at different gravitational levels. Of special interest to this work, as discussed at the previous workshop, is the determination of whether, and under what conditions, pulsating spread occurs in micro g. Microgravity offers a unique ability to modify and control the gas-phase flow pattern by utilizing a forced air flow over the pool surface.
Ross, Howard D.; Miller, Fletcher; Schiller, David; Sirignano, William
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), a severe respiratory disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides (Mmm) is endemic in many African countries due to fragmented veterinary services and the lack of an efficient vaccine and sensitive diagnostics. More efficient tools to control the disease are needed, but to develop the tools, a better understanding of host-pathogen interactions is necessary. The aim of this study was to characterize the kinetics of the humoral immune response against 65 Mmm surface antigens for an extended period in cattle that survived a primary infection with Mmm. We describe clinical and haematological outcomes, and dissect the humoral immune response over time, to specific antigens and compared the antibody responses between different pathomorphological outcomes. No antigen-specific antibodies correlating with protection were identified. Interestingly we found that animals that developed Mycoplasma-containing sequestra had significantly higher antibody levels against proteins comprising the surface proteome than the animals that cleared Mycoplasma from their lungs. Based on these data we suggest that high antibody titres might play a role in the establishment of pathomorphological changes, such as vasculitis, which should be investigated in future studies. Beneficial antibody specificities and cellular immune responses need to be identified in order to foster the development of an improved vaccine in the future. PMID:24880898
Schieck, Elise; Liljander, Anne; Hamsten, Carl; Gicheru, Nimmo; Scacchia, Massimo; Sacchini, Flavio; Heller, Martin; Schnee, Christiane; Sterner-Kock, Anja; Hlinak, Andreas; Naessens, Jan; Poole, Jane; Persson, Anja; Jores, Joerg
Many behavioral phenomena have been found to spread interpersonally through social networks, in a manner similar to infectious diseases. An important difference between social contagion and traditional infectious diseases, however, is that behavioral phenomena can be acquired by non-social mechanisms as well as through social transmission. We introduce a novel theoretical framework for studying these phenomena (the SISa model) by adapting a classic disease model to include the possibility for ‘automatic’ (or ‘spontaneous’) non-social infection. We provide an example of the use of this framework by examining the spread of obesity in the Framingham Heart Study Network. The interaction assumptions of the model are validated using longitudinal network transmission data. We find that the current rate of becoming obese is 2 per year and increases by 0.5 percentage points for each obese social contact. The rate of recovering from obesity is 4 per year, and does not depend on the number of non-obese contacts. The model predicts a long-term obesity prevalence of approximately 42, and can be used to evaluate the effect of different interventions on steady-state obesity. Model predictions quantitatively reproduce the actual historical time course for the prevalence of obesity. We find that since the 1970s, the rate of recovery from obesity has remained relatively constant, while the rates of both spontaneous infection and transmission have steadily increased over time. This suggests that the obesity epidemic may be driven by increasing rates of becoming obese, both spontaneously and transmissively, rather than by decreasing rates of losing weight. A key feature of the SISa model is its ability to characterize the relative importance of social transmission by quantitatively comparing rates of spontaneous versus contagious infection. It provides a theoretical framework for studying the interpersonal spread of any state that may also arise spontaneously, such as emotions, behaviors, health states, ideas or diseases with reservoirs.
Hill, Alison L.; Rand, David G.; Nowak, Martin A.; Christakis, Nicholas A.
In order to establish a rapid diagnostic method for contagious equine metritis (CEM), we developed and evaluated a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. Species-specific PCR primer sets were derived from the DNA sequence of a cloned DNA fragment of Taylorella equigenitalis that did not hybridize with the genome of a taxomonically related species, Oligella urethralis. Single step PCR with primer set P1-N2 and two-step semi-nested PCR with primer sets P1-N2 and P2-N2 detected as low as 100 and 10 CFU of the bacteria, respectively. Single-step PCR detected T. equigenitalis from genital swabs of experimentally infected mares with sensitivity comparable to that of bacterial isolation. Furthermore, two-step PCR was more sensitive than the culture method. Upon examination of field samples, 12 out of 3,123 samples were positive by single-step PCR while only 2 were positive by bacterial culture. The 12 PCR-positive samples originated from 5 mares, of which 3 animals were considered to be carriers based on previous bacteriologic and serologic diagnoses for CEM. The PCR test described in this study would provide a specific and highly sensitive tool for the rapid diagnosis of CEM. PMID:10651048
Anzai, T; Eguchi, M; Sekizaki, T; Kamada, M; Yamamoto, K; Okuda, T
Male goats admitted to artificial insemination centres come from herds that have shown no clinical symptoms of contagious agalactia (CA) for the last 6 mo. However, prior reports suggest that this control measure may not be completely effective. This study was designed to detect the presence of CA-causing mycoplasmas in 9 Spanish centres, comprising 159 goats (147 males and 12 teaser does) of 8 different breeds. A microbiological study was conducted during 8 mo on 448 samples (318 ear swabs, 119 semen samples and 11 milk samples). In 86 samples (84 swabs, 1 semen sample and 1 milk sample), CA-causative mycoplasmas were detected by PCR or culture, and 52 animals (49 goat males and 3 teaser does) tested positive. Most of these positive animals were auricular carriers (n = 50), mainly of Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. capri (Mmc), although some M. agalactiae (Ma) and, interestingly, M. capricolum subsp. capricolum (Mcc) carriers were also identified. At least 1 animal infected by CA-causing mycoplasmas was detected in 8 of the 9 centres (88.8%) although in most (66.7%) no infected animals or only 1 or 2 positive animals were identified. Our results indicate the presence of CA carriers as asymptomatic animals in reproductive programmes. These findings have already prompted efficient measures to detect and avoid the entry of these carriers in Spanish centres. We recommend similar measures for all centres in areas where CA is endemic. PMID:21220162
Amores, J; Gómez-Martín, A; Corrales, J C; Sánchez, A; Contreras, A; De la Fe, C
Background In disease surveillance, the prospective space-time permutation scan statistic is commonly used for the early detection of disease outbreaks. The scanning window that defines potential clusters of diseases is cylindrical in shape, which does not allow incorporating into the cluster shape potential factors that can contribute to the spread of the disease, such as information about roads, landscape, among others. Furthermore, the cylinder scanning window assumes that the spatial extent of the cluster does not change in time. Alternatively, a dynamic space-time cluster may indicate the potential spread of the disease through time. For instance, the cluster may decrease over time indicating that the spread of the disease is vanishing. Methods This paper proposes two irregularly shaped space-time permutation scan statistics. The cluster geometry is dynamically created using a graph structure. The graph can be created to include nearest-neighbor structures, geographical adjacency information or any relevant prior information regarding the contagious behavior of the event under surveillance. Results The new methods are illustrated using influenza cases in three New England states, and compared with the cylindrical version. A simulation study is provided to investigate some properties of the proposed arbitrary cluster detection techniques. Conclusion We have successfully developed two new space-time permutation scan statistics methods with irregular shapes and improved computational performance. The results demonstrate the potential of these methods to quickly detect disease outbreaks with irregular geometries. Future work aims at performing intensive simulation studies to evaluate the proposed methods using different scenarios, number of cases, and graph structures.
The principal goal of our recent research on flame spread across liquid pools is the detailed identification of the mechanisms that control the rate and nature of flame spread when the liquid pool is initially at an isothermal bulk temperature that is below the fuel's flash point temperature. In our project, we specialize the subject to highlight the roles of buoyancy-related processes regarding the mechanisms of flame spread, an area of research cited recently by Linan and Williams as one that needs further attention and which microgravity (micro-g) experiments could help to resolve. Toward resolving the effects of buoyancy on this flame spread problem, comparisons - between 1-g and micro-g experimental observations, and between model predictions and experimental data at each of these gravitational levels - are extensively utilized. The present experimental and computational foundation is presented to support identification of the mechanisms that control flame spread in the pulsating flame spread regime for which long-duration, micro-g flame spread experiments have been conducted aboard a sounding rocket.
Ross, Howard D.; Miller, Fletcher J.; Sirignano, William A.; Schiller, David
Koi herpesvirus disease (KHVD) is an emerging and highly contagious viral disease of koi and common carp (Cyprinus carpio), causing mass mortalities and huge economic losses to the carp aquaculture industry. The disease has spread rapidly to 28 countries worldwide. However, mechanisms of koi herpesvirus (species Cyprinid herpesvirus 3; CyHV-3) transmission remain unclear. A potential experimental model of CyHV-3 infection in carp was used to characterise CyHV-3 in different phases of infection and to demonstrate that CyHV-3 persists in survivor fish and has the capacity to reactivate and transmit the disease to healthy fish. During acute infection, which occurred when fish were maintained at 22°C, viral genes were abundantly expressed and infectious virus was produced in association with tissue damage, clinical disease and mortality. In fish maintained at a lower temperature (11°C), viral DNA was present but viral gene expression was absent or greatly restricted, infectious virus was not recovered and there was no evidence of disease. Productive replication was re-initiated following an increase in water temperature to 22°C, resulting in 45% mortality. Shedding of reactivated virus killed 75% of cohabitating naïve fish, suggesting a potential risk for disease transmission. PMID:24704574
Sunarto, Agus; McColl, Kenneth A; Crane, Mark St J; Schat, Karel A; Slobedman, Barry; Barnes, Andrew C; Walker, Peter J
The 1278insTATC is the most prevalent ß-hexosaminidase A ( HEXA) gene mutation causing Tay-Sachs disease (TSD), one of the four lysosomal storage diseases (LSDs) occurring at elevated frequencies among Ashkenazi Jews (AJs). To investigate the genetic history of this mutation in the AJ population, a conserved haplotype (D15S981:175–D15S131:240–D15S1050:284–D15S197:144–D15S188:418) was identified in 1278insTATC chromosomes from 55 unrelated AJ individuals (15 homozygotes and
Amos Frisch; Roberto Colombo; Elena Michaelovsky; Mazal Karpati; Boleslaw Goldman; Leah Peleg
Contagious yawning has been reported for humans, dogs and several non-human primate species, and associated with empathy in humans and other primates. Still, the function, development and underlying mechanisms of contagious yawning remain unclear. Humans and dogs show a developmental increase in susceptibility to yawn contagion, with children showing an increase around the age of four, when also empathy-related behaviours and accurate identification of others' emotions begin to clearly evince. Explicit tests of yawn contagion in non-human apes have only involved adult individuals and examined the existence of conspecific yawn contagion. Here we report the first study of heterospecific contagious yawning in primates, and the ontogeny of susceptibility thereto in chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes verus. We examined whether emotional closeness, defined as attachment history with the yawning model, affected the strength of contagion, and compared the contagiousness of yawning to nose-wiping. Thirty-three orphaned chimpanzees observed an unfamiliar and familiar human (their surrogate human mother) yawn, gape and nose-wipe. Yawning, but not nose-wiping, was contagious for juvenile chimpanzees, while infants were immune to contagion. Like humans and dogs, chimpanzees are subject to a developmental trend in susceptibility to contagious yawning, and respond to heterospecific yawn stimuli. Emotional closeness with the model did not affect contagion. The familiarity-biased social modulatory effect on yawn contagion previously found among some adult primates, seem to only emerge later in development, or be limited to interactions with conspecifics. The influence of the 'chameleon effect', targeted vs. generalised empathy, perspective-taking and visual attention on contagious yawning is discussed. PMID:24146848
Madsen, Elainie Alenkær; Persson, Tomas; Sayehli, Susan; Lenninger, Sara; Sonesson, Göran
The contact structure between hosts shapes disease spread. Most network-based models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts between two individuals. However, this assumption is known to be at odds with the data for many networks (e.g. sexual contact networks) and to have a critical influence on epidemics' behavior. One of the reasons why models usually ignore heterogeneity in transmission is that we currently lack tools to analyze weighted networks, such that most studies rely on numerical simulations. Here, we present a novel framework to estimate key epidemiological variables, such as the rate of early epidemic expansion () and the basic reproductive ratio (), from joint probability distributions of number of partners (contacts) and number of interaction events through which contacts are weighted. These distributions are much easier to infer than the exact shape of the network, which makes the approach widely applicable. The framework also allows for a derivation of the full time course of epidemic prevalence and contact behaviour, which we validate with numerical simulations on networks. Overall, incorporating more realistic contact networks into epidemiological models can improve our understanding of the emergence and spread of infectious diseases.
Kamp, Christel; Moslonka-Lefebvre, Mathieu; Alizon, Samuel
Cholera epidemics are still a major public health concern to date in many areas of the world. In order to understand and forecast cholera outbreaks, one of the most important factors is the role played by the environmental matrix in which the disease spreads. We study how river networks, acting as environmental corridors for pathogens, affect the spreading of cholera epidemics. The environmental matrix in which the disease spreads is constituted by different human communities and their hydrologic interconnections. Each community is characterized by its spatial position, population size, water resources availability and hygiene conditions. By implementing a spatially explicit cholera model we seek the effects on epidemic dynamics of: i) the topology and metrics of the pathogens pathways that connect different communities; ii) the spatial distribution of the population size; and iii) the spatial distributions and quality of surface water resources and public health conditions, and how they vary with population size. The model has been applied to study the space-time evolution of a well documented cholera epidemic occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The epidemic lasted for two years and involved about 140,000 confirmed cholera cases. The model does well in reproducing the distribution of the cholera cases during the two outbreaks as well as their spatial spreading. We further extend the model by deriving the speed of propagation of traveling fronts in the case of uniformly distributed systems for different topologies: one and two dimensional lattices and river networks. The derivation of the spreading celerity proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. The conditions are sought by comparison between spreading and disease timescales. Consider a cholera epidemic that starts from a point and spreads throughout a finite size system, it is possible to identify two different timescales: i) the spreading timescale, that is the time needed for the disease to spread and involve all the communities in the system; and ii) the epidemic timescale, defined by the duration of the epidemic in a single community. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest, timescales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of classical space-implicit compartmental models.
Bertuzzo, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.
The paper contends that the ongoing controversy surrounding the creation of a contagious H5N1 influenza virus has already exposed the severe limitations of the possibility of preventing the hostile misuse of the life sciences by dint of oversight of proposals and publications. It further argues that in order to prevent the potential wholesale militarisation of the life sciences, it is essential that life scientists become aware of their responsibilities within the context of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and actively contribute their expertise to strengthening the biological weapons non-proliferation regime .
Novossiolova, Tatyana; Minehata, Masamichi; Dando, Malcolm
The paper contends that the ongoing controversy surrounding the creation of a contagious H5N1 influenza virus has already exposed the severe limitations of the possibility of preventing the hostile misuse of the life sciences by dint of oversight of proposals and publications. It further argues that in order to prevent the potential wholesale militarisation of the life sciences, it is essential that life scientists become aware of their responsibilities within the context of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and actively contribute their expertise to strengthening the biological weapons non-proliferation regime . PMID:22984642
Novossiolova, Tatyana; Minehata, Masamichi; Dando, Malcolm
The discrepancy between an individual’s loneliness and the number of connections in a social network is well documented, yet little is known about the placement of loneliness within, or the spread of loneliness through, social networks. We use network linkage data from the population-based Framingham Heart Study to trace the topography of loneliness in people’s social networks and the path through which loneliness spreads through these networks. Results indicated that loneliness occurs in clusters, extends up to three degrees of separation, is disproportionately represented at the periphery of social networks, and spreads through a contagious process. The spread of loneliness was found to be stronger than the spread of perceived social connections, stronger for friends than family members, and stronger for women than for men. The results advance our understanding of the broad social forces that drive loneliness and suggest that efforts to reduce loneliness in our society may benefit by aggressively targeting the people in the periphery to help repair their social networks and to create a protective barrier against loneliness that can keep the whole network from unraveling.
Cacioppo, John T.; Fowler, James H.; Christakis, Nicholas A.
The aim is to measure the ST\\/FOC instrumental point spread function (PSF) in the f\\/96 and f\\/288 modes at various wavelengths using a selection of color filters. The structure of the PSF has to be measured with high photometric accuracy, otherwise it is not possible to discriminate fine structure of the PSF and fine structure that may be intrinsic to
Recently, contagion-based (disease, information, etc.) spreading on social networks has been extensively studied. In this paper, other than traditional full interaction, we propose a partial interaction based spreading model, considering that the informed individuals would transmit information to only a certain fraction of their neighbors due to the transmission ability in real-world social networks. Simulation results on three representative networks (BA, ER, WS) indicate that the spreading efficiency is highly correlated with the network heterogeneity. In addition, a special phenomenon, namely Information Blind Areas where the network is separated by several information-unreachable clusters, will emerge from the spreading process. Furthermore, we also find that the size distribution of such information blind areas obeys power-law-like distribution, which has very similar exponent with that of site percolation. Detailed analyses show that the critical value is decreasing along with the network heterogeneity for the spreading process, which is complete the contrary to that of random selection. Moreover, the critical value in the latter process is also larger than that of the former for the same network. Those findings might shed some lights in in-depth understanding the effect of network properties on information spreading. PMID:24763456
Zhang, Zi-Ke; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Han, Xiao-Pu; Liu, Chuang
Recently, contagion-based (disease, information, etc.) spreading on social networks has been extensively studied. In this paper, other than traditional full interaction, we propose a partial interaction based spreading model, considering that the informed individuals would transmit information to only a certain fraction of their neighbors due to the transmission ability in real-world social networks. Simulation results on three representative networks (BA, ER, WS) indicate that the spreading efficiency is highly correlated with the network heterogeneity. In addition, a special phenomenon, namely Information Blind Areas where the network is separated by several information-unreachable clusters, will emerge from the spreading process. Furthermore, we also find that the size distribution of such information blind areas obeys power-law-like distribution, which has very similar exponent with that of site percolation. Detailed analyses show that the critical value is decreasing along with the network heterogeneity for the spreading process, which is complete the contrary to that of random selection. Moreover, the critical value in the latter process is also larger than that of the former for the same network. Those findings might shed some lights in in-depth understanding the effect of network properties on information spreading.
Han, Xiao-Pu; Liu, Chuang
The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics.
Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Yang, Hui; Younghae Do; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lee, GyuWon
The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics. PMID:24872257
Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Yang, Hui; Younghae Do; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lee, GyuWon
The Internet presents a complex topological structure, on which computer viruses can easily spread. By using theoretical analysis and computer simulation methods, the dynamic process of disease spreading on finite size networks with complex topological structure is investigated. On the finite size networks, the spreading process of SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model is a finite Markov chain with an absorbing state. Two parameters, the survival probability and the conditional infecting probability, are introduced to describe the dynamic properties of disease spreading on finite size networks. Our results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks. Also, knowledge about the dynamic character of virus spreading is helpful for adopting immunity policy.
Li, Ying; Liu, Yang; Shan, Xiu-Ming; Ren, Yong; Jiao, Jian; Qiu, Ben
One of the concerns is that there may exist multiple infectious disease transmission routes across households in high-rise residential buildings, one of which is the natural ventilative airflow through open windows between flats, caused by buoyancy effects. This study presents the modeling of this cascade effect using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique. It is found that the presence of the pollutants generated in the lower floor is generally lower in the immediate upper floor by two orders of magnitude, but the risk of infection calculated by the Wells-Riley equation is only around one order of magnitude lower. It is found that, with single-side open-window conditions, wind blowing perpendicularly to the building may either reinforce or suppress the upward transport, depending on the wind speed. High-speed winds can restrain the convective transfer of heat and mass between flats, functioning like an air curtain. Despite the complexities of the air flow involved, it is clear that this transmission route should be taken into account in infection control.
Niu, J. L.; Gao, N. P.
Background Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Methodology/Principal Findings Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. Conclusions/Significance To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide.
Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L.; Bertran, Kateri; Frias, Maria T.; Majo, Natalia; Ganges, Llilianne; Perez, Lester J.
In this paper, we present a new method of digital steganography, entitled spread spectrum image steganography (SSIS). Steganography, which means "covered writing" in Greek, is the science of communicating in a hidden manner. Following a discussion of steganographic communication theory and review of existing techniques, the new method, SSIS, is introduced. This system hides and recovers a message of substantial length within digital imagery while maintaining the original image size and dynamic range. The hidden message can be recovered using appropriate keys without any knowledge of the original image. Image restoration, error-control coding, and techniques similar to spread spectrum are described, and the performance of the system is illustrated. A message embedded by this method can be in the form of text, imagery, or any other digital signal. Applications for such a data-hiding scheme include in-band captioning, covert communication, image tamperproofing, authentication, embedded control, and revision tracking. PMID:18267522
Marvel, L M; Boncelet, C R; Retter, C T
Chromosomal diversity and relationships among 126 Streptococcus pyogenes strains expressing M1 protein from 13 countries on five continents were analyzed by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis and restriction fragment profiling by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. All isolates were studied for the presence of the gene encoding streptococcal pyrogenic exotoxin A by PCR. Strain subsets were also examined by automated DNA sequencing for allelic polymorphism in genes encoding M protein (emm), streptococcal pyrogenic exotoxin A (speA), streptokinase (ska), pyrogenic exotoxin B (interleukin-1 beta convertase) (speB), and C5a peptidase (scp). Seven distinct emm1 alleles that encode M proteins differing at one or more amino acids in the N-terminal variable region were identified. Although substantial levels of genetic diversity exist among M1-expressing organisms, most invasive disease episodes are caused by two subclones marked by distinctive multilocus enzyme electrophoretic profiles and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) types. One of these subclones (ET 1/RFLP pattern 1a) has the speA gene and was recovered worldwide. Identity of speA, emm1, speB, and ska alleles in virtually all isolates of ET 1/RFLP type 1a means that these organisms share a common ancestor and that global dispersion of this M1-expressing subclone has occurred very recently. The occurrence of the same emm and ska alleles in strains that are well differentiated in overall chromosomal character demonstrates that horizontal transfer and recombination play a fundamental role in diversifying natural populations of S. pyogenes.
Musser, J M; Kapur, V; Szeto, J; Pan, X; Swanson, D S; Martin, D R
Rubella is a contagious viral disease with few complications except when contracted by pregnant women. Rubella infection in pregnancy can result in miscarriage, stillbirth or an infant born with congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) which comprises deafness, heart disease, cataracts and other permanent congenital manifestations. Clinical diagnosis of rubella is difficult due to overlapping symptoms with many other diseases and confirmation
Vytautas Usonis; Ioana Anca; Francis André; Roman Chlibek; Milan ?ižman; Inga Ivaskeviciene; Atanas Mangarov; Zsófia Mészner; Penka Perenovska; Marko Pokorn; Roman Prymula; Darko Richter; Nuran Salman; Pavol Šimurka; Eda Tamm; Goran Tešovi?; Ingrid Urban?íková
The rapid worldwide spread of SARS demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. What can be done in a global community to prevent and control future epidemics? Here we introduce a novel probabilistic model which describes the worldwide spreading of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. It combines a local infection dynamics between individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network which takes into account the civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the SARS outbreak are in good agreement with the case reports published by the World Health Organization. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spreading of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. We find that the pattern of the epidemic spread is strongly affected by the location of the initial infection. The performance of different control strategies is analysed.
Hufnagel, Lars; Brockmann, Dirk; Geisel, Theo
Disease spreading through human travel networks has been a topic of great interest in recent years, such as with swine in fl uenza or SARS pandemics. Most studies have proposed removing highly connected nodes (hubs) to control spreading. Here, we test alternative strategies using edge removal ( fl ight cancellation) for spreading over the airline network. Flight cancellation was more ef fi cient than shutting down whole airports: spreading took 81% longer if solely selected fl ights were removed, compared to a 52% reduction when entire airports were shutdown, affecting the same number of fl ights. PMID:20020673
Marcelino, Jose; Kaiser, Marcus
The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q < qc. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.
Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan
We introduce a new intrinsic notion of spread for toposes and geometric morphisms, and use it to give a “topological” characterization of Lawvere distributions on a topos. In the process, we relate spreads to zero-dimensional locales, and establish two new pure\\/spread factorizations for geometric morphisms. Our results are then applied to the study of the symmetric topos as a generalized
M. Bunge; J. Funk
Recent studies argue that the spread-adjusted Taylor rule (STR), which includes a response to the credit spread, replicates monetary policy in the United State. We show (1) STR is a theoretically optimal monetary policy under heterogeneous loan interest rate contracts in both discretionay and commitment monetary policies, (2) however, the optimal response to the credit spread is ambiguous given the
Pertussis is a highly contagious, acute respiratory disease in humans caused by the Gram-negative pathogen Bordetella pertussis. Pertussis has resurged in the face of intensive vaccination and this has coincided with the emergence of strains carrying a particular allele for the pertussis toxin promoter, ptxP3, which is associated with higher levels of pertussis toxin (Ptx) production. Within 10 to 20 years, ptxP3 strains have nearly completely replaced the previously dominant ptxP1 strains resulting in a worldwide selective sweep. In order to identify B. pertussis genes associated with the selective sweep, we compared the expression of genes in ptxP1 and ptxP3 strains that are under control of the Bordetella master virulence regulatory locus (bvgASR). The BvgAS proteins comprise a two component sensory transduction system which is regulated by temperature, nicotinic acid and sulfate. By increasing the sulfate concentration, it is possible to change the phase of B. pertussis from virulent to avirulent. Until recently, the only distinctive phenotype of ptxP3 strains was a higher Ptx production. Here we identify additional phenotypic differences between ptxP1 and ptxP3 strains which may have contributed to its global spread by comparing global transcriptional responses under sulfate-modulating conditions. We show that ptxP3 strains are less sensitive to sulfate-mediated gene suppression, resulting in an increased production of the vaccine antigens pertactin (Prn) and Ptx and a number of other virulence genes, including a type III secretion toxin, Vag8, a protein involved in complement resistance, and lpxE involved in lipid A modification. Furthermore, enhanced expression of the vaccine antigens Ptx and Prn by ptxP3 strains was confirmed at the protein level. Identification of genes differentially expressed between ptxP1 and ptxP3 strains may elucidate how B. pertussis has adapted to vaccination and allow the improvement of pertussis vaccines by identifying novel vaccine candidates. PMID:24416242
de Gouw, Daan; Hermans, Peter W M; Bootsma, Hester J; Zomer, Aldert; Heuvelman, Kees; Diavatopoulos, Dimitri A; Mooi, Frits R
An indirect ELISA, based on the specific and strongly antigenic recombinant peptide of the N?-terminal half of the lipoprotein LppQ from Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides small colony type (SC) was developed for the detection of antibodies to M. mycoides subsp. mycoides SC. It was evaluated for its suitability for serodiagnosis and monitoring of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP). The recombinant peptide
Urs Bruderer; Jose Regalla; El-Mostafa Abdo; Otto J. B. Huebschle; Joachim Frey
The role of transnational mobility in the local spread of mosquito-borne disease: Measuring the determinants of spatial-temporal lags of imported dengue cases initiating indigenous epidemics in Taiwan
Dengue fever is one of the world's most widely spread mosquito-borne diseases. International travelers who acquire dengue infection are important routes for virus transmission from one country to another one. Previous studies have shown that imported dengue cases are able to initiate indigenous epidemics when appropriate weather conditions are present. However, the spatial-temporal associations between imported cases and indigenous epidemics in areas with different social-economic conditions are still unclear. This study investigated determinants of spatial-temporal lags of imported dengue cases who initiated indigenous epidemics from 2003 to 2012 in Taiwan. The quantile regression is used to explore the associations between spatial-temporal lags of imported cases and social-economic indicators with geographic heterogeneity. Our results indicated that imported cases in April and May have statistically significant contribution to initiate indigenous epidemics. Areas with high population density and low average income have significant risk of being imported virus from other areas. However, the areas with imported cases are not significant transmission risk. The results imply that imported cases reported in early summer may be an early-warning indicator of indigenous epidemics. Local demographic and economic conditions, rather than imported cases, may determine the areas with the risk of indigenous epidemics.
Diabetes and Hepatitis B Vaccination Information for Diabetes Educators What is hepatitis B? Hepatitis B is a contagious liver disease that results ... as liver failure or liver cancer. How is hepatitis B spread? The hepatitis B virus is usually spread ...
A type D-related retrovirus has been demonstrated in enzootic nasal tumors (ENTs) of sheep and goats. This retrovirus, ENT virus (ENTV), has antigenic cross-reactivity with the jaagsiekte sheep retrovirus (JSRV), which is associated with a contagious lung tumor of sheep (sheep pulmonary adenomatosis). Here, we present the first report of nucleic acid sequence from ENTV which confirms, at the nucleic acid level, that this retrovirus is related to JSRV yet apparently distinct from it. Reverse transcription-PCR followed by restriction enzyme digestion specifically identified ENTV. By this technique, ENTV was demonstrated exclusively in tumor tissues and exudates of animals with ENT. Thus, there is a unique and consistent association between ENT and the retrovirus, just as there is between JSRV and sheep pulmonary adenomatosis. This gives further weight to the hypothesis that these retroviruses are the etiologic agents of the tumors.
Cousens, C; Minguijon, E; Garcia, M; Ferrer, L M; Dalziel, R G; Palmarini, M; De las Heras, M; Sharp, J M
The causes of socioeconomic inequality have been debated since the time of Plato. Many reasons for the development of stratification have been proposed, from the need for hierarchical control over large-scale irrigation systems to the accumulation of small differences in wealth over time via inheritance processes. However, none of these explains how unequal societies came to completely displace egalitarian cultural norms over time. Our study models demographic consequences associated with the unequal distribution of resources in stratified societies. Agent-based simulation results show that in constant environments, unequal access to resources can be demographically destabilizing, resulting in the outward migration and spread of such societies even when population size is relatively small. In variable environments, stratified societies spread more and are also better able to survive resource shortages by sequestering mortality in the lower classes. The predictions of our simulation are provided modest support by a range of existing empirical studies. In short, the fact that stratified societies today vastly outnumber egalitarian societies may not be due to the transformation of egalitarian norms and structures, but may instead reflect the more rapid migration of stratified societies and consequent conquest or displacement of egalitarian societies over time.
Rogers, Deborah S.; Deshpande, Omkar; Feldman, Marcus W.
Newcastle disease (ND) is a contagious viral disease of many avian species particularly domestic poultry, and is responsible for devastating outbreaks in the poultry industries around the globe. In spite of its importance and endemicity in Southern Asia, data on the genetic nature of the viruses and epizootiological information of the disease is scarce. In this study, six isolates from an emerging wave of ND outbreaks in the north of Pakistan and two isolates from healthy poultry flocks were biologically and genetically characterized. Based on pathogenicity indices such as intracerebral pathogenicity index (ICPI), mean death time (MDT) and cleavage motifs in the fusion protein, all these isolates were classified as virulent. Phylogenetic analysis of the fusion (F), hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) and matrix (M) genes indicated the emergence of a novel genetic group within lineage 5, distinct from isolates previously reported in the region. Several mutations in the neutralizing epitopes and functionally important motifs of the F and HN genes pose a need for re-evaluation of the currently used vaccine and vaccination practices. The characteristics of Newcastle disease virus (NDV) as virulent (F protein cleavage site, ICPI and MDT) in apparently healthy backyard poultry (BYP) explain that BYP can play crucial role in the epizootiology and spread of the disease. The present investigation provides essential information on the genetic nature of NDV circulating in Pakistan and its implication on disease diagnosis and control. Furthermore, these investigations emphasize the importance of continuous surveillance of ND in developing countries. PMID:22418457
Munir, Muhammad; Cortey, Martí; Abbas, Muhammad; Qureshi, Zafar Ul Ahsan; Afzal, Farhan; Shabbir, Muhammad Zubair; Khan, Muhammad Tanveer; Ahmed, Safia; Ahmad, Saeed; Baule, Claudia; Ståhl, Karl; Zohari, Siamak; Berg, Mikael
Efficient spreading of evidence-based innovations among complex health systems remains an elusive goal despite extensive study in the social sciences. Biology provides a model of successful spread in viruses, which have evolved to spread with maximum efficiency using minimal resources. Here we explore the molecular mechanisms of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) spread and identify five steps that are also common to a recent example of spread in complex health systems: reduction in door-to-balloon times for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We then describe a new model we have developed, called AIDED, which is based on mixed-methods research but informed by the conceptual framework of HIV spread among cells. The AIDED model contains five components: Assess, Innovate, Develop, Engage and Devolve, and can describe any one of the following: the spread of HIV among cells, the spread of practices to reduce door-to-balloon time for patients with STEMI and the spread of certain family health innovations in low- and middle-income countries. We suggest that by looking to the biological sciences for a model of spread that has been honed by evolution, we may have identified fundamental steps that are necessary and sufficient for efficient, low-cost spread of health innovations among complex health systems.
Talbert-Slagle, Kristina; Berg, David; Bradley, Elizabeth H.
Efficient spreading of evidence-based innovations among complex health systems remains an elusive goal despite extensive study in the social sciences. Biology provides a model of successful spread in viruses, which have evolved to spread with maximum efficiency using minimal resources. Here we explore the molecular mechanisms of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) spread and identify five steps that are also common to a recent example of spread in complex health systems: reduction in door-to-balloon times for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We then describe a new model we have developed, called AIDED, which is based on mixed-methods research but informed by the conceptual framework of HIV spread among cells. The AIDED model contains five components: Assess, Innovate, Develop, Engage and Devolve, and can describe any one of the following: the spread of HIV among cells, the spread of practices to reduce door-to-balloon time for patients with STEMI and the spread of certain family health innovations in low- and middle-income countries. We suggest that by looking to the biological sciences for a model of spread that has been honed by evolution, we may have identified fundamental steps that are necessary and sufficient for efficient, low-cost spread of health innovations among complex health systems. PMID:23696582
Talbert-Slagle, Kristina; Berg, David; Bradley, Elizabeth H
Contagious yawning is a well-documented phenomenon in humans and has recently attracted much attention from developmental and comparative sciences. The function, development and underlying mechanisms of the phenomenon, however, remain largely unclear. Contagious yawning has been demonstrated in dogs and several non-human primate species, and theoretically and empirically associated with empathy in humans and non-human primates. Evidence of emotional closeness modulating contagious yawning in dogs has, nonetheless, been contradictory. Humans show a developmental increase in susceptibility to yawn contagion, with typically developing children displaying a substantial increase at the age of four, when a number of cognitive abilities (e.g. accurate identification of others' emotions) begin to clearly manifest. Explicit tests of yawn contagion in non-human animals have, however, thus far only involved adult individuals. Here, we report a study of the ontogeny of domestic dogs' (Canis lupus familiaris) susceptibility to yawn contagion, and whether emotional closeness to the yawning model affects this. Thirty-five dogs, aged 4-14 months, observed a familiar and unfamiliar human repeatedly yawn or gape. The dogs yawned contagiously, but emotional closeness with the model did not affect the strength of contagion, raising questions as to recent evidence of emotionally modulated auditory contagious yawning in dogs. The dogs showed a developmental effect, with only dogs above 7 months evidencing contagion. The results support the notion of a developmental increase in dogs' attention to others and identification of others' emotional states and suggest that yawn contagion is underpinned by developmental processes shared by humans and other animals. PMID:23076724
Madsen, Elainie Alenkær; Persson, Tomas
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of even-toed ungulates and is endemic in most of the tropics. A cross-sectional study using a stratified, two-stage random sample design was undertaken in the Adamawa Province of Cameroon. The objectives were to measure the reported herd-level prevalence of FMD and a range of husbandry practices important for its transmission. The owner-reported prevalence for the previous 12 months was 57.9% (50.4-65.4%), although there was a significant variation across the Province. During the previous dry season, 46.5% (38.6-54.4%) of herds had gone on transhumance. Herds had high numbers of contacts with other herds while on transhumance (98.6%), at pasture (95.8%) and at night (74.4%), with medians of 7-10, 4-6 and 1-3 daily contacts, respectively. The high level of endemic FMD and potential for disease spread presents a significant challenge for control and eradication. Locally sustainable methods need to be developed upon which larger regional control programmes could be built in the future. PMID:14690088
Bronsvoort, B M deC; Tanya, V N; Kitching, R P; Nfon, C; Hamman, S M; Morgan, K L
The devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is a contagious cancer that has recently emerged among Tasmanian devils, rapidly decimating the population. We have recently discovered that DFTD cells lose the expression MHC molecules on the cell surface, explaining how this tumor avoids recognition by host CD8+ T cells.
Siddle, Hannah V; Kaufman, Jim
Researchers at the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine and UC San Diego Moores Cancer Center report that cancers physically alter cells in the lymphatic system – a network of vessels that transports and stores immune cells throughout the body – to promote the spread of disease, a process called metastasis. The findings are published in this week’s online Early Edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Numerous deaths of koi and common carp (Cyprinus carpio) were observed on many farms throughout Israel, resulting in severe financial losses. The lethal viral disease observed is highly contagious and extremely virulent, but morbidity and mortality are restricted to koi and common carp populations. Diseased fish exhibit fatigue and gasping movements in shallow water. Infected fish had interstitial nephritis and
Marina Hutoran; Ariel Ronen; Ayana Perelberg; Maya Ilouze; Arnon Dishon; Izhak Bejerano; Nissim Chen; Moshe Kotler
Spreading depolarization of cells in cerebral grey matter is characterized by massive ion translocation, neuronal swelling and large changes in direct current-coupled voltage recording. The near-complete sustained depolarization above the inactivation threshold for action potential generating channels initiates spreading depression of brain activity. In contrast, epileptic seizures show modest ion translocation and sustained depolarization below the inactivation threshold for action potential generating channels. Such modest sustained depolarization allows synchronous, highly frequent neuronal firing; ictal epileptic field potentials being its electrocorticographic and epileptic seizure its clinical correlate. Nevertheless, Leão in 1944 and Van Harreveld and Stamm in 1953 described in animals that silencing of brain activity induced by spreading depolarization changed during minimal electrical stimulations. Eventually, epileptic field potentials were recorded during the period that had originally seen spreading depression of activity. Such spreading convulsions are characterized by epileptic field potentials on the final shoulder of the large slow potential change of spreading depolarization. We here report on such spreading convulsions in monopolar subdural recordings in 2 of 25 consecutive aneurismal subarachnoid haemorrhage patients in vivo and neocortical slices from 12 patients with intractable temporal lobe epilepsy in vitro. The in vitro results suggest that ?-aminobutyric acid-mediated inhibition protects from spreading convulsions. Moreover, we describe arterial pulse artefacts mimicking epileptic field potentials in three patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage that ride on the slow potential peak. Twenty-one of the 25 subarachnoid haemorrhage patients (84%) had 656 spreading depolarizations in contrast to only three patients (12%) with 55 ictal epileptic events isolated from spreading depolarizations. Spreading depolarization frequency and depression periods per 24?h recording episodes showed an early and a delayed peak on Day 7. Patients surviving subarachnoid haemorrhage with poor outcome at 6 months showed significantly higher total and peak numbers of spreading depolarizations and significantly longer total and peak depression periods during the electrocorticographic monitoring than patients with good outcome. In a semi-structured telephone interview 3 years after the initial haemorrhage, 44% of the subarachnoid haemorrhage survivors had developed late post-haemorrhagic seizures requiring anti-convulsant medication. In those patients, peak spreading depolarization number had been significantly higher [15.1 (11.4–30.8) versus 7.0 (0.8–11.2) events per day, P?=?0.045]. In summary, monopolar recordings here provided unequivocal evidence of spreading convulsions in patients. Hence, practically all major pathological cortical network events in animals have now been observed in people. Early spreading depolarizations may indicate a risk for late post-haemorrhagic seizures.
Major, Sebastian; Pannek, Heinz-Wolfgang; Woitzik, Johannes; Scheel, Michael; Wiesenthal, Dirk; Martus, Peter; Winkler, Maren K.L.; Hartings, Jed A.; Fabricius, Martin; Speckmann, Erwin-Josef; Gorji, Ali
An analysis has been made of reliable spread-F data obtained from IGY f plots for ionosonde stations grouped about longitudes 75øW and 120øE. The temporal variations of occurrence of the frequency-spreading component of spread F are found to change with lati- tude, these changes having a certain symmetry about the geomagnetic equator rather than about the geographic or dip equators.
D. G. Singleton
Vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to control the spread of infectious diseases. Simulations are now widely used to assess how vaccination can limit disease spread as well as mitigate morbidity or mortality in susceptible populations. However, field studies investigating how much vaccines decrease the velocity of epizootic wave-fronts during outbreaks are rare. This study aimed at investigating the effect of vaccination on the propagation of bluetongue, a vector-borne disease of ruminants. We used data from the 2008 bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1) epizootic of southwest France. As the virus was newly introduced in this area, natural immunity of livestock was absent. This allowed determination of the role of vaccination in changing the velocity of bluetongue spread while accounting for environmental factors that possibly influenced it. The average estimated velocity across the country despite restriction on animal movements was 5.4 km/day, which is very similar to the velocity of spread of the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic in France also estimated in a context of restrictions on animal movements. Vaccination significantly reduced the propagation velocity of BTV-1. In comparison to municipalities with no vaccine coverage, the velocity of BTV-1 spread decreased by 1.7 km/day in municipalities with immunized animals. For the first time, the effect of vaccination has been quantified using data from a real epizootic whilst accounting for environmental factors known to modify the velocity of bluetongue spread. Our findings emphasize the importance of vaccination in limiting disease spread across natural landscape. Finally, environmental factors, specifically those related to vector abundance and activity, were found to be good predictors of the velocity of BTV-1 spread, indicating that these variables need to be adequately accounted for when evaluating the role of vaccination on bluetongue spread. PMID:24465562
Pioz, Maryline; Guis, Hélène; Pleydell, David; Gay, Emilie; Calavas, Didier; Durand, Benoît; Ducrot, Christian; Lancelot, Renaud
Vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to control the spread of infectious diseases. Simulations are now widely used to assess how vaccination can limit disease spread as well as mitigate morbidity or mortality in susceptible populations. However, field studies investigating how much vaccines decrease the velocity of epizootic wave-fronts during outbreaks are rare. This study aimed at investigating the effect of vaccination on the propagation of bluetongue, a vector-borne disease of ruminants. We used data from the 2008 bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1) epizootic of southwest France. As the virus was newly introduced in this area, natural immunity of livestock was absent. This allowed determination of the role of vaccination in changing the velocity of bluetongue spread while accounting for environmental factors that possibly influenced it. The average estimated velocity across the country despite restriction on animal movements was 5.4 km/day, which is very similar to the velocity of spread of the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic in France also estimated in a context of restrictions on animal movements. Vaccination significantly reduced the propagation velocity of BTV-1. In comparison to municipalities with no vaccine coverage, the velocity of BTV-1 spread decreased by 1.7 km/day in municipalities with immunized animals. For the first time, the effect of vaccination has been quantified using data from a real epizootic whilst accounting for environmental factors known to modify the velocity of bluetongue spread. Our findings emphasize the importance of vaccination in limiting disease spread across natural landscape. Finally, environmental factors, specifically those related to vector abundance and activity, were found to be good predictors of the velocity of BTV-1 spread, indicating that these variables need to be adequately accounted for when evaluating the role of vaccination on bluetongue spread.
Pioz, Maryline; Guis, Helene; Pleydell, David; Gay, Emilie; Calavas, Didier; Durand, Benoit; Ducrot, Christian; Lancelot, Renaud
Recent Origin and Spread of a Common Lithuanian Mutation, G197del LDLR, Causing Familial Hypercholesterolemia: Positive Selection Is Not Always Necessary to Account for Disease Incidence among Ashkenazi Jews
G197del is the most prevalent LDL receptor (LDLR) mutation causing familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) in Ashkenazi Jew (AJ) individuals. The purpose of this study was to determine the origin, age, and population distribution of G197del, as well as to explore environmental and genetic effects on disease expression. Index cases from Israel (n=46), South Africa (n=24), Russia (n=7), The Netherlands (n=1), and the United States (n=1) were enlisted. All trace their ancestry to Lithuania. A highly conserved haplotype (D19S221:104-D19S865:208-D19S413:74) was identified in G197del chromosomes, suggesting the occurrence of a common founder. When two methods were used for analysis of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between flanking polymorphic markers and the disease locus and for the study of the decay of LD over time, the estimated age of the deletion was found to be 20 ± 7 generations (the 95% confidence interval is 15–26 generations), so that the most recent common ancestor of the mutation-bearing chromosomes would date to the 14th century. This corresponds with the founding of the Jewish community of Lithuania (1338 a.d.), as well as with the great demographic expansion of AJ individuals in eastern Europe, which followed this settlement. The penetrance of mutation-linked severe hypercholesterolemia is high (94% of heterozygotes have a baseline concentration of LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) that is >160 mg/dl), and no significant differences in the mean baseline lipid level of G197del carriers from different countries were found. Polymorphisms of apolipoprotein E and of scavenger-receptor class B type I were observed to have minor effects on the plasma lipid profile. With respect to determinative genetic influences on the biochemical phenotype, there is no evidence that could support the possibility of a selective evolutionary metabolic advantage. Therefore, the founder effect in a rapidly expanding population from a limited number of families remains a simple, parsimonious hypothesis explaining the spread of G197del-LDLR–linked FH in AJ individuals.
Durst, Ronen; Colombo, Roberto; Shpitzen, Shoshi; Avi, Liat Ben; Friedlander, Yechiel; Wexler, Roni; Raal, Frederick J.; Marais, David A.; Defesche, Joep C.; Mandelshtam, Michail Y.; Kotze, Maritha J.; Leitersdorf, Eran; Meiner, Vardiella
We build an agent-based model of incarceration based on the susceptible-infected-suspectible (SIS) model of infectious disease propagation. Our central hypothesis is that the observed racial disparities in incarceration rates between Black and White Americans can be explained as the result of differential sentencing between the two demographic groups. We demonstrate that if incarceration can be spread through a social influence network, then even relatively small differences in sentencing can result in large disparities in incarceration rates. Controlling for effects of transmissibility, susceptibility and influence network structure, our model reproduces the observed large disparities in incarceration rates given the differences in sentence lengths for White and Black drug offenders in the USA without extensive parameter tuning. We further establish the suitability of the SIS model as applied to incarceration by demonstrating that the observed structural patterns of recidivism are an emergent property of the model. In fact, our model shows a remarkably close correspondence with California incarceration data. This work advances efforts to combine the theories and methods of epidemiology and criminology. PMID:24966237
Lum, Kristian; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen; Hawdon, James
Neurodegenerative diseases are characterized by the aggregation of misfolded proteins in the brain. Among these disorders are the prion diseases, which are transmissible, and in which the misfolded proteins (“prions”) are also the infectious agent. Increasingly, it appears that misfolded proteins in Alzheimer and Parkinson diseases and the tauopathies also propagate in a “prion-like” manner. However, the association between prion formation, spread, and neurotoxicity is not clear. Recently, we showed that in prion disease, protein misfolding leads to neurodegeneration through dysregulation of generic proteostatic mechanisms, specifically, the unfolded protein response. Genetic and pharmacological manipulation of the unfolded protein response was neuroprotective despite continuing prion replication, hence dissociating this from neurotoxicity. The data have clear implications for treatment across the spectrum of these disorders, targeting pathogenic processes downstream of protein misfolding.
Halliday, Mark; Radford, Helois; Mallucci, Giovanna R.
This paper uses the credit-friction model developed by C´urdia and Woodford, in a series of papers, as the basis for attempting to mimic the behavior of credit spreads in moderate as well as in times of crisis. We are able to generate movements in representative credit spreads that are, at times, both sharp and volatile. We then study the impact
Ke Pang; Pierre L. Siklos
This paper uses the credit-friction model developed by Curdia and Woodford, in a series of papers, as the basis for attempting to mimic the behavior of credit spreads in moderate as well as crisis times. We are able to generate movements in representative credit spreads that are, at times, both sharp and volatile. We then study the impact of quantitative
Ke Pang; Pierre L. Siklos
An experimental study has been performed of the spread of flames over the surface of thick PMMA and thin filter paper sheets in a forced gaseous flow of varied oxygen concentration moving in the direction of flame spread. It is found that the rate of spre...
H. T. Loh
This article reports on new universities for Muslims, many supported by groups in the Middle East, which are spreading through the sub-Saharan region. The Islamic University in Uganda is a prime example of a new kind of institution that has slowly been spreading its way across the continent. Embracing both conservative Muslim values and modern…
BACKGROUND: Newcastle disease (ND), caused by Newcastle disease virus (NDV), is a highly contagious disease of birds and has been one of the major causes of economic losses in the poultry industry. Despite routine vaccination programs, sporadic cases have occasionally occurred in the country and remain a constant threat to commercial poultry. Hence, the present study was aimed to characterize
Ayalew Berhanu; Aini Ideris; Abdul R Omar; Mohd Hair Bejo
Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the “thought contagion” among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.
Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella
Summary The contagiousness in the operation of mortality processes on the colonies of the western tent caterpillar,Malacosoma californicum pluviale, was analyzed from two different aspects: successive changes in the frequency distribution of the number of surviving individuals\\u000a per colony in the course of development, and the distribution pattern of the individuals killed by some biotic mortality factors.\\u000a Also, for a tachinid
Sera of 11 species of wild herbivores were tested for antibody to Mycoplasma strain F38 which causes contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) in Kenya. Antibodies were found in buffalo (Syncerus caffer) (32%), impala (Aepyceros melampus) (10%) and camels (Camelus dromedarius) (49%) but not in bushbuck (Tragelaphus scriptus), eland (Taurotragus oryx), Grant's gazelle (Gazella granti), kongoni (Alcelaphus buselaphus cokei), oryx (Oryx beisa), Thomson's gazelle (Gazella thomsonii), waterbuck (Kobus defassa) and wildebeest (Connochaetus taurinus). PMID:691121
Paling, R W; Macowan, K J; Karstad, L
Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.
Viboud, Cécile; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Smith, David L.; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Grenfell, Bryan T.
Specific humoral immune responses in a clinical trial on cattle for vaccines against contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) were investigated. The trial included a subunit vaccine consisting of five recombinant putative variable surface proteins of the infectious agent Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides small colony type (M. mycoides SC) compared to the currently approved attenuated vaccine strain T1/44 and untreated controls. Humoral immune responses to 65 individual recombinant surface proteins of M. mycoides SC were monitored by a recently developed bead-based array assay. Responses to the subunit vaccine components were found to be weak. Animals vaccinated with this vaccine were not protected and had CBPP lesions similar to those of the untreated controls. In correlating protein-specific humoral responses to T1/44-induced immunity, five proteins associated with a protective immune response were identified by statistical evaluation, namely, MSC_1046 (LppQ), MSC_0271, MSC_0136, MSC_0079, and MSC_0431. These five proteins may be important candidates in the development of a novel subunit vaccine against CBPP.
Hamsten, Carl; Tjipura-Zaire, Georgina; McAuliffe, Laura; Huebschle, Otto J. B.; Scacchia, Massimo; Ayling, Roger D.; Persson, Anja
This study was designed to assess the possible effects of mycoplasmas on the quality of milk produced by goat herds in a contagious agalactia (CA) endemic area with absence of classical symptoms. Several factors related to milk quality (percentages of fat, total protein, lactose and total solids, standard plate counts (SPC) and presence of Staphylococcus aureus) were compared in mycoplasma-infected and non-infected herds. To define the CA status of 26 herds on the island of Lanzarote (Spain), where CA is endemic, 570 individual milk samples and 266 bulk tank milk (BTM) samples were microbiologically analysed for the presence of Mycoplasma spp. A herd was considered infected by mycoplasmas when at least a sample (individual or BTM) was positive. BTM samples were also used to determine milk quality parameters. Mycoplasma infection was confirmed in 13 herds. A total of 31, 10 and 11 strains of Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides LC (MmmLC), Mp. agalactiae and Mp. capricolum subsp. capricolum were isolated. No significant differences were observed between the least square means of the variables fat, total protein, lactose and total solids or SPC recorded for the infected v. non-infected herds. The Staph. aureus status of a herd was also found to be independent of the presence of Mycoplasma spp. Our findings indicate that neither the presence of mycoplasmas in a goat herd with absence of classical symptoms seem to compromise the quality of the BTM. PMID:18922196
de la Fe, Christian; Sánchez, Antonio; Gutierrez, Aldo; Contreras, Antonio; Carlos Corrales, Juan; Assunçao, Patricia; Poveda, Carlos; Poveda, José B
In this paper, we introduce a novel method ABM in simulating the unique process for the dengue spread. Dengue is an acute infectious disease with a long history of over 200 years. Unlike the diseases that can be transmitted directly from person to person, dengue spreads through a must vector of mosquitoes. There is still no any special effective medicine and vaccine for dengue up till now. The best way to prevent dengue spread is to take precautions beforehand. Thus, it is crucial to detect and study the dynamic process of dengue spread that closely relates to human-environment interactions where Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) effectively works. The model attempts to simulate the dengue spread in a more realistic way in the bottom-up way, and to overcome the limitation of ABM, namely overlooking the influence of geographic and environmental factors. Considering the influence of environment, Aedes aegypti ecology and other epidemiological characteristics of dengue spread, ABM can be regarded as a useful way to simulate the whole process so as to disclose the essence of the evolution of dengue spread.
Deng, Chengbin; Tao, Haiyan; Ye, Zhiwei
To test whether the Babylonians had a 'rational' explanation of contagion, some letters from Mari mentioning epidemics and contagious diseases are studied within the wider context of Babylonian medicine. Descriptions of similar cases are adduced from other cuneiform sources. In particular, one later magical text from Bo?azköy with instructions to marry a doll to an illness demon shows striking similarities with the terminology of the Mari letters. This points toward a magico-religious concept of contagiousness in which disease can be transmitted intentionally, or accidentally leap from one individual who has incurred the wrath of a god to an unwary other person. PMID:17152170
Contact investigation and management form the key for tuberculosis (TB) control in countries with a low tuberculosis incidence. Oman, with a low TB incidence, has implemented contact investigation and management as one important strategy to control TB. However there is a lack of clear guidelines for the investigation and treatment of contacts, especially with regard to children who are contacts of TB cases. The failure to manage children in contact with infectious TB cases indicates a missed opportunity to prevent TB disease in a population which is prone to progress rapidly to severe and complicated illness. This article attempts to provide a concise and practical approach for managing infants and children who are in contact with TB patients. Essential steps in a variety of possible scenarios are briefly discussed.
Paul, George; Al-Maani, Amal S.; Kurup, Padmamohan J.
The spreading of polymer droplets is studied using molecular dynamics simulations. To study the dynamics of both the precursor foot and the bulk droplet, large hemispherical drops of 200 000 monomers are simulated using a bead-spring model for polymers of chain length 10, 20, and 40 monomers per chain. We compare spreading on flat and atomistic surfaces, chain length effects, and different applications of the Langevin and dissipative particle dynamics thermostats. We find diffusive behavior for the precursor foot and good agreement with the molecular kinetic model of droplet spreading using both flat and atomistic surfaces. Despite the large system size and long simulation time relative to previous simulations, we find that even larger systems are required to observe hydrodynamic behavior in the hemispherical spreading droplet. PMID:14754218
Heine, David R; Grest, Gary S; Webb, Edmund B
This is a lesson plan in which students investigate global responses to fighting the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Students will read a newspaper article to discover what is being done to curb the spread of the deadly disease. Then, students will use a variety of different media to track the spread and other statistics related to the disease. Students will write news reports advising citizens of what to do in affected areas.
Dekorne, Clayton; Chin, Tanya Y.
CBPP is an important transboundary disease in sub-Saharan Africa whose control is urgent. Participatory data collection involving 52 focus group discussions in 37 village clusters and key informant interviews, a cross-sectional study involving 232 households and a post-vaccination follow up involving 203 households was carried out in 2006–2007 in Narok South district of Kenya. This was to investigate knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and practices (KAPP) associated with control of CBPP as well as the adverse post-vaccination reactions in animals in order to advice the control policy. The community perceived trans-boundary CBPP threat to their cattle. They had traditional disease coping mechanisms and were conversant with CBPP prevention and control with 49.8% (95%CI: 42.8–56.7%) giving priority to CBPP control. However, 12.9% (95%CI: 9.0–18.1%) of pastoralists had no knowledge of any prevention method and 10.0% (95%CI: 6.5–14.7%) would not know what to do or would do nothing in the event of an outbreak. Although 43.5% (95%CI: 37.1–50.2%) of pastoralists were treating CBPP cases with antimicrobials, 62.5% (95%CI: 52.1–71.7%) of them doubted the effectiveness of the treatments. Pastoralists perceived vaccination to be the solution to CBPP but vaccination was irregular due to unavailability of the vaccine. Vaccination was mainly to control outbreaks rather than preventive and exhibited adverse post-vaccination reactions among 70.4% (95%CI: 63.6–76.5%) of herds and 3.8% (95%CI: 3.5–4.2%) of animals. Consequently, nearly 25.2% (95%CI: 18.5–33.2%) of pastoralists may resist subsequent vaccinations against CBPP. Pastoralists preferred CBPP vaccination at certain times of the year and that it is combined with other vaccinations. In conclusion, pastoralists were not fully aware of the preventive measures and interventions and post-vaccination reactions may discourage subsequent CBPP vaccinations. Consequently there is need for monitoring and management of post vaccination reactions and awareness creation on CBPP prevention and interventions and their merits and demerits. CBPP vaccine was largely unavailable to the pastoralists and the preference of the pastoralists was for vaccination at specified times and vaccine combinations which makes it necessary to avail the vaccine in conformity with the pastoralists preferences. In addition, planning vaccinations should involve pastoralists and neighbouring countries. As the results cannot be generalized, further studies on CBPP control methods and their effectiveness are recommended.
Kairu-Wanyoike, S.W.; Kiara, H.; Heffernan, C.; Kaitibie, S.; Gitau, G.K.; McKeever, D.; Taylor, N.M.
CBPP is an important transboundary disease in sub-Saharan Africa whose control is urgent. Participatory data collection involving 52 focus group discussions in 37 village clusters and key informant interviews, a cross-sectional study involving 232 households and a post-vaccination follow up involving 203 households was carried out in 2006-2007 in Narok South district of Kenya. This was to investigate knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and practices (KAPP) associated with control of CBPP as well as the adverse post-vaccination reactions in animals in order to advice the control policy. The community perceived trans-boundary CBPP threat to their cattle. They had traditional disease coping mechanisms and were conversant with CBPP prevention and control with 49.8% (95%CI: 42.8-56.7%) giving priority to CBPP control. However, 12.9% (95%CI: 9.0-18.1%) of pastoralists had no knowledge of any prevention method and 10.0% (95%CI: 6.5-14.7%) would not know what to do or would do nothing in the event of an outbreak. Although 43.5% (95%CI: 37.1-50.2%) of pastoralists were treating CBPP cases with antimicrobials, 62.5% (95%CI: 52.1-71.7%) of them doubted the effectiveness of the treatments. Pastoralists perceived vaccination to be the solution to CBPP but vaccination was irregular due to unavailability of the vaccine. Vaccination was mainly to control outbreaks rather than preventive and exhibited adverse post-vaccination reactions among 70.4% (95%CI: 63.6-76.5%) of herds and 3.8% (95%CI: 3.5-4.2%) of animals. Consequently, nearly 25.2% (95%CI: 18.5-33.2%) of pastoralists may resist subsequent vaccinations against CBPP. Pastoralists preferred CBPP vaccination at certain times of the year and that it is combined with other vaccinations. In conclusion, pastoralists were not fully aware of the preventive measures and interventions and post-vaccination reactions may discourage subsequent CBPP vaccinations. Consequently there is need for monitoring and management of post vaccination reactions and awareness creation on CBPP prevention and interventions and their merits and demerits. CBPP vaccine was largely unavailable to the pastoralists and the preference of the pastoralists was for vaccination at specified times and vaccine combinations which makes it necessary to avail the vaccine in conformity with the pastoralists preferences. In addition, planning vaccinations should involve pastoralists and neighbouring countries. As the results cannot be generalized, further studies on CBPP control methods and their effectiveness are recommended. PMID:24768437
Kairu-Wanyoike, S W; Kiara, H; Heffernan, C; Kaitibie, S; Gitau, G K; McKeever, D; Taylor, N M
For flame spread over liquid fuel pools, the existing literature suggests three gravitational influences: (1) liquid phase buoyant convection, delaying ignition and assisting flame spread; (2) hydrostatic pressure variation, due to variation in the liquid pool height caused by thermocapillary-induced convection; and (3) gas-phase buoyant convection in the opposite direction to the liquid phase motion. No current model accounts for all three influences. In fact, prior to this work, there was no ability to determine whether ignition delay times and flame spread rates would be greater or lesser in low gravity. Flame spread over liquid fuel pools is most commonly characterized by the relationship of the initial pool temperature to the fuel's idealized flash point temperature, with four or five separate characteristic regimes having been identified. In the uniform spread regime, control has been attributed to: (1) gas-phase conduction and radiation; (2) gas-phase conduction only; (3) gas-phase convection and liquid conduction, and most recently (4) liquid convection ahead of the flame. Suggestions were made that the liquid convection was owed to both vuoyancy and thermocapillarity. Of special interest to this work is the determination of whether, and under what conditions, pulsating spread can and will occur in microgravity in the absence of buoyant flows in both phases. The approach we have taken to resolving the importance of buoyancy for these flames is: (1) normal gravity experiments and advanced diagnostics; (2) microgravity experiments; and (3) numerical modelling at arbitrary gravitational level.
Ross, Howard; Miller, Fletcher; Schiller, David; Sirignano, William A.
Objectives High rates of household participation are critical to the success of door-to-door vector control campaigns. We used the Health Belief Model to assess determinants of participation, including neighbor participation as a cue to action, in a Chagas disease vector control campaign in Peru. Methods We evaluated clustering of participation among neighbors; estimated participation as a function of household infestation status, neighborhood type, and number of participating neighbors; and described reported reasons for refusal to participate in a district of 2911 households. Results We observed significant clustering of participation along city blocks (p< .0001). Participation was significantly higher for households in new vs. established neighborhoods, for infested households, and for households with more participating neighbors. The effect of neighbor participation was greater in new neighborhoods. Conclusions Results support a “contagion” model of participation, highlighting the possibility that one or two participating households can tip a block towards full participation. Future campaigns can leverage these findings by making participation more visible, by addressing stigma associated with spraying, and by employing group incentives to spray.
Buttenheim, Alison M.; Paz-Soldan, Valerie; Barbu, Corentin; Skovira, Christine; Calderon, Javier Quintanilla; Riveros, Lina Margot Mollesaca; Cornejo, Juan Oswaldo; Small, Dylan S.; Bicchieri, Christina; Naquira, Cesar; Levy, Michael Z.
The qualitative study in this article portrays the couple relationship among AIDS carriers, based on Sternberg's triangular love theory (involving domains of intimacy, passion and commitment). The central study hypothesis is that certain components of the Sternberg model will be more significant than others among the AIDS carrier population. The study was conducted on ten AIDS carriers aged 21-37 who had experienced a couple relationship. Six men and four women participated; most of them were in a romantic couple relationship of homosexual orientation. The interviewees answered a questionnaire that included the three domains-- intimacy, passion and commitment--in the personal interview technique. The interview focused on interviewee's attitude towards his/her relationship with a partner, as he/she understood it. The findings of the study focus on relevant content that was gathered from the interviews and these portray a limited view of couple patterns in the world of AIDS carriers. The study reveals two major findings regarding the carrier's desires: On the one hand, the carrier describes a powerful need for a stable, permanent relationship--from the diagnosis of AIDS and throughout the subsequent years. On the other hand, the carrier also expresses powerful sexual desires that are not necessarily limited to a permanent partner. Thus passion is the dominant among the three domains. The intimacy domain is mainly affected by disclosure of the disease and the joint coping that follows. The findings are discussed in the context of the romantic internalized model theory and Sternberg's triangular love theory.
Doron, Hadas; Teichner, Noa; Grey, Adi; Goldstein, Yehudit
The effectiveness of detection and control of highly contagious animal diseases is dependent on a solid understanding of their nature and implementation of scientifically sound methods by people who are well trained. The implementation of specific detection methods and tools requires training and application in natural as well as field conditions. The aim of this paper is to present the design and implementation of training in disease investigation and basic veterinary epidemiology in selected countries using the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Asia strain as a disease detection model. Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria, Turkey, and Vietnam were each identified as either a priority country where AI was spreading rapidly or a country at risk for infection. In each of these countries, a training program on epidemiological concepts, field investigation methodology, and detection of H5N1 Asia strain cases was conducted. This report includes the impact of these training sessions on national animal health programs, including follow-up activities of animal health officers who went through these training sessions. PMID:19781798
Salman, M D
The foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus has high agro-terrorism potential because it is contagious, can be easily transmitted via inanimate objects and can be spread by wind. An outbreak of FMD in developed countries results in massive slaughtering of animals (for disease control) and disruptions in meat supply chains and trade, with potentially large economic losses. Although the United States has been FMD-free since 1929, the potential of FMD as a deliberate terrorist weapon calls for estimates of the physical and economic damage that could result from an outbreak. This paper estimates the economic impacts of three alternative scenarios of potential FMD attacks using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the US economy. The three scenarios range from a small outbreak successfully contained within a state to a large multi-state attack resulting in slaughtering of 30 percent of the national livestock. Overall, the value of total output losses in our simulations range between $37 billion (0.15% of 2006 baseline economic output) and $228 billion (0.92%). Major impacts stem from the supply constraint on livestock due to massive animal slaughtering. As expected, the economic losses are heavily concentrated in agriculture and food manufacturing sectors, with losses ranging from $23 billion to $61 billion in the two industries.
Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL] [ORNL; Rose, Adam [University of Southern California, Los Angeles] [University of Southern California, Los Angeles; Bumsoo, Lee [University of Illinois] [University of Illinois
Many goat artificial insemination (AI) centers in Spain have adopted new measures to control contagious agalactia (CA). To avoid the introduction of male goats carrying mycoplasma organisms subclinically in their external ear canal (auricular carriers) in these centers, two ear swabs and a blood sample are obtained from all candidate animals for polymerase chain reaction (PCR), culture (swabs) and serologic tests to detect the presence of mycoplasmas. In addition, the semen produced at these centers is routinely cultured and PCR tested also to detect the presence of mycoplasmas. One y after the introduction of this program, we tested 48 ear swabs and 24 blood samples from 24 candidates for admission to these AI Centers. Three of these ear swab samples (3/48, 6.25%) scored positive for the presence of mycoplasmas; Mycoplasma agalactiae (Ma) was detected in two samples and Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. capri (Mmc) in one. All animals were serologically negative for Ma. Also, out of 173 semen samples obtained from 137 admitted animals (2 and 3 samples were obtained in 16 and 10 bucks, respectively), one (1/173, 0.56%) was positive for Mmc. Our findings suggest that ear swab and semen samples are useful tools to control CA at AI Centers. The introduction of this program has also resulted in the first detection of Mmc in semen from a naturally infected goat, confirming the ability of this mycoplasma to colonize the reproductive tract of male goats. These results highlight the need to improve control measures in semen producing centers to minimize the risk of CA transmission. PMID:22115814
Gómez-Martín, A; Corrales, J C; Amores, J; Sánchez, A; Contreras, A; Paterna, A; De la Fe, C
Marek’s disease (MD) is a highly contagious lymphoproliferative disease of poultry caused by the oncogenic herpesvirus designated Marek’s disease virus (MDV). MD has a worldwide distribution and is thought to cause an annual loss over US$1 bn to the poultry industry. Originally described as a paralytic disease, today MD is mostly manifested as an acute disease with tumours in multiple
... Night sweats Weight loss Loss of appetite Itchy skin To diagnose Hodgkin disease, doctors use a physical exam and history, blood tests, and a biopsy. Treatment depends on how far the disease has spread. It often includes radiation therapy or chemotherapy. The earlier the disease is diagnosed, ...
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is economically the most important viral-induced livestock disease worldwide. The disease is highly contagious and FMD virus (FMDV) replicates and spreads extremely rapidly. Outbreaks in previously FMD-free countries, including Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and Uruguay, and the potential use of FMDV by terrorist groups have demonstrated the vulnerability of countries and the need to develop control strategies that can rapidly inhibit or limit disease spread. The current vaccine, an inactivated whole virus preparation, has a number of limitations for use in outbreaks in disease-free countries. We have developed an alternative approach using a genetically engineered FMD subunit vaccine that only contains the portions of the viral genome required for virus capsid assembly and lacks the coding region for most of the viral nonstructural (NS) proteins including the highly immunogenic 3D protein. Thus, animals inoculated with this marker vaccine can readily be differentiated from infected animals using diagnostic assays employing the NS proteins not present in the vaccine and production of this vaccine, which does not contain infectious FMDV, does not require expensive high-containment manufacturing facilities. One inoculation of this subunit vaccine delivered in a replication-defective human adenovirus vector can induce rapid, within 7 days, and relatively long-lasting protection in swine. Similarly cattle inoculated with one dose of this recombinant vector are rapidly protected from direct and contact exposure to virulent virus. Furthermore, cattle given two doses of this vaccine developed high levels of FMDV-specific neutralizing antibodies, but did not develop antibodies against viral NS proteins demonstrating the ability of FMD subunit vaccinated animals to be differentiated from infected animals. To stimulate early protection prior to the vaccine-induced adaptive immune response we inoculated swine with the antiviral agent, type I interferon, and induced complete protection within 1 day. Protection can last for 3-5 days. The combination of the FMD marker vaccine and type I interferon can induce immediate, within 1 day, and long-lasting protection against FMD. Thus, this combination approach successfully addresses a number of concerns of FMD-free countries with the current disease control plan. By rapidly limiting virus replication and spread this strategy may reduce the number of animals that need to be slaughtered during an outbreak. PMID:16289996
Grubman, Marvin J
The prevalence of antibodies to Brucella spp., Mycobacterium paratuberculosis and the Mycoplasma spp. causing contagious bovine pleuropneumonia and contagious caprine pleuropneumonia was determined in various species of ruminants on a ranch in the semi-arid zone of southeastern Kenya. Antibody titers to Brucella spp. were found in eland (Taurotragus oryx), oryx (Oryx beisa) and camels (Camelus dromedarius). Reactors were not found in buffalo (Syncerus caffer), sheep (Ovis aries) and goats (Capra hircus). Brucella sp. was not isolated from eland and camels. Antibody titers to M. paratuberculosis were found only in camels and goats. Mycobacteria were not detected in feces of two serologically positive camels. Significant serum antibody titers to Mycoplasma mycoides mycoides were found only in camels. Antibody titers to Mycoplasma sp. (strain F38), which causes contagious caprine pleuropneumonia, were found in buffalo, cattle and camels but not in the other species. Attempts to isolate the Mycoplasma sp. from nasal secretion of the buffalo and camels failed. The possible occurrence of tuberculosis in camels is discussed. Under the conditions at the ranch, contagious bacterial diseases appear to be of minor importance in the domesticated wild herbivores. The introduced camels, however, might be a source of various infections such as brucellosis, mycoplasmosis and possibly tuberculosis for the other susceptible species. PMID:3373635
Paling, R W; Waghela, S; Macowan, K J; Heath, B R
The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q?>?qc and die when q?spreading in complex networks with community structure. PMID:24985430
Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan
The factors that enhance the transmission of pathogens during epidemic spread are ill defined. Water-borne spread of the diarrhoeal disease cholera occurs rapidly in nature, whereas infection of human volunteers with bacteria grown in vitro is difficult in the absence of stomach acid buffering. It is unclear, however, whether stomach acidity is a principal factor contributing to epidemic spread. Here we report that characterization of Vibrio cholerae from human stools supports a model whereby human colonization creates a hyperinfectious bacterial state that is maintained after dissemination and that may contribute to epidemic spread of cholera. Transcriptional profiling of V. cholerae from stool samples revealed a unique physiological and behavioural state characterized by high expression levels of genes required for nutrient acquisition and motility, and low expression levels of genes required for bacterial chemotaxis. PMID:12050664
Merrell, D Scott; Butler, Susan M; Qadri, Firdausi; Dolganov, Nadia A; Alam, Ahsfaqul; Cohen, Mitchell B; Calderwood, Stephen B; Schoolnik, Gary K; Camilli, Andrew
Infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV), a member of the Birnaviridae family, is a double-stranded RNA virus that causes a highly contagious disease in young chickens leading to significant economic losses in the poultry industry. The VP2 protein, the only structural component of the IBDV icosahedral capsid, spontaneously assembles into T1 subviral particles (SVP) when individually expressed as a chimeric gene.
D. Garriga; J. Querol-Audi; F. Abaitua; I. Saugar; J. Pous; N. Verdaguer; J. R. Caston; J. F. Rodriguez
Use of personal digital assistant devices in order to access, consult and apply a corpus of clinical guidelines and decision-based support documentation like the Italian SPREAD Guidelines on stroke disease
During the past few years, personal digital assistants (PDAs) have become widespread commodities, like computers and mobile\\u000a phones. Many health-care providers, particularly physicians, routinely use PDAs in their everyday work. Accessing guidelines\\u000a and clinical decision-based support tools, such as the downloadable version of the Italian SPREAD Guidelines represents one\\u000a of the most important and common clinical applications. The current experience
A retrospective Sero-prevalence analysis was conducted in 2012 in order to find out whether contagious caprine pleuro-pneumonia (CCPP) and peste des petits ruminants (PPR) had already been introduced in Mtwara and Lindi regions of Southern Tanzania by 2007 and 2009. A total of 477 randomly selected sera from a bank of 3500 small ruminant samples that were collected as part of Rift Valley Fever surveillance of 2007 in Mtwara and Lindi regions were used in this study. Seroconversion was also evaluated in the 504 sera that were collected in 2009 as part of disease outbreak investigations in Tandahimba and Newala districts of Mtwara region. Seroconversions to CCPP and PPR were tested using competitive ELISA. In addition, information on different variables available in the existing surveillance forms gathered during sampling was used in the analysis of risk factors associated with seropositivity to the two diseases. The overall seroprevalence of CCPP for the sera of 2007 and 2009 in goats was 52.1% (n=447) and 35.5% (n=434) respectively; while in sheep the seroprevalence was 36.7% (n=30) and 22.9% (n=70) respectively. Seroconversion to PPR in goats and sheep was 28.7% (n=434) and 35.7% (n=70) respectively based on the sera of 2009. However, no antibodies were detected in the 2007 sera. Mixed infections were detected in 7.4% (n=434) of the goat and 12.9% (n=70) of sheep samples. Significant risk factors associated with seropositivity to CCPP in 2007 included introduction of new animals in flocks (OR=3.94; 95% CI 1.86-8.36; p<0.001) and raising animals in government farms (OR=4.92; 95% CI 1.57-15.76; p=0.02); whereas, seropositivity to CCPP in 2009 increased with introduction of new animals in flocks (OR=18.82; 95% CI 8.06-43.96; p<0.001), raising animals in government farms (OR=4.04; 95% CI 2.69-6.42; p<0.001) and raising animals in Newala district (OR=2.35; 95% CI 1.53-3.62; p<0.001). On the other hand, predictors for seropositivity to PPR in 2009 were introduction of new animals in flocks (OR=2.83; 95% CI 1.73-4.62; p<0.001) and communal grazing of animals (OR=7.60; 95% CI 1.77-32.58; p=0.01). Therefore, these results show that CCPP was already circulating in goats in the southern zone by 2007 and that PPR was probably introduced thereafter. Their presence in this emerging animal keeping area in Tanzania calls for improved surveillance and control systems. PMID:25022914
Mbyuzi, Albano O; Komba, Erick V G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I; Kambarage, Dominic M
Background DENV-1 is one of the four viral serotypes that causes Dengue, the most common mosquito-borne viral disease of humans. The prevalence of these viruses has grown in recent decades and is now present in more than 100 countries. Limited studies document the spread of DENV-1 over the world despite its importance for human health. Methodology/Principal Findings We used representative DENV-1 envelope gene sequences to unravel the dynamics of viral diffusion under a Bayesian phylogeographic approach. Data included strains from 45 distinct geographic locations isolated from 1944 to 2009. The estimated mean rate of nucleotide substitution was 6.56×10?4 substitutions/site/year. The larger genotypes (I, IV and V) had a distinctive phylogenetic structure and since 1990 they experienced effective population size oscillations. Thailand and Indonesia represented the main sources of strains for neighboring countries. Besides, Asia broadcast lineages into the Americas and the Pacific region that diverged in isolation. Also, a transmission network analysis revealed the pivotal role of Indochina in the global diffusion of DENV-1 and of the Caribbean in the diffusion over the Americas. Conclusions/Significance The study summarizes the spatiotemporal DENV-1 worldwide spread that may help disease control.
Villabona-Arenas, Christian Julian; Zanotto, Paolo Marinho de Andrade
The Spread F Experiment, or SpreadFEx, was performed from September to November 2005 to define the potential role of neutral atmosphere dynamics, primarily gravity waves propagating upward from the lower atmosphere, in seeding equatorial spread F (ESF) and plasma bubbles extending to higher altitudes. A description of the SpreadFEx campaign motivations, goals, instrumentation, and structure, and an overview of the
D. C. Fritts; S. L. Vadas; D. M. Riggin; M. A. Abdu; I. S. Batista; H. Takahashi; A. Medeiros; F. Kamalabadi; H.-L. Liu; M. J. Taylor
Scientists collect rock samples of the oceanic crust from a location that is 10 km from a spreading center. (1 km = 1000 m; 1 m = 100 cm; 1 cm = 10 mm.) The sampled rocks were found to be 200,000 years old. What ...
Spread spectrum communication - often called Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) - has been widely adopted over the years for many types interference-challenged wireless communication systems in- cluding cellular and cordless telephones, wireless LANs and PANs, military applications, and global posi- tioning systems. In this paper, we explore whether CDMA - in either its frequency hopping (FH) or direct sequence
Jeffrey G. Andrews; Steven Weber; Martin Haenggi
A test has been devised that permits rapid evaluation of the detonation-spreading (or corner-turning) properties of detonations in insensitive high explosives. The test utilizes a copper witness plate as the medium to capture performance data. Dent depth and shape in the copper are used as quantitative measures of the detonation output and spreading behavior. The merits of the test are that it is easy to perform with no dynamic instrumentation, and the test requires only a few grams of experimental explosive materials.
Kennedy, J.E.; Lee, K.Y.; Spontarelli, T.; Stine, J.R.
Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Auger electron microscopy (AEM) were employed to observe elemental surface decomposition resulting from the brazing of a copper-treated steel. Two types of steel were used for the study, stainless steel (treated with a eutectic silver-copper alloy), and low-carbon steel (treated with pure copper). Attention is given to oxygen partial pressure during the processes; a low enough pressure (8 x 10 to the -5th torr) was found to totally inhibit the spreading of the filler material at a fixed heating cycle. With both types of steel, copper treatment enhanced even spreading at a decreased temperature.
Siewert, T. A.; Heine, R. W.; Lagally, M. G.
ABSTRACT Pollination of the edible fig (Ficus carica cv. Calimyrna) is mediated by a small symbiotic wasp, Blastophaga psenes, that inhabits the syconium cavity of the spring crop of fig pollinator trees (caprifigs). These fig wasps also carry propagules, mainly of Fusarium verticillioides (formerly F. moniliforme) and other Fusarium spp., which cause endosepsis, from pollinator figs to the edible Calimyrna figs in California. Spread of endosepsis was studied in one experimental and up to four commercial Calimyrna fig orchards from 1989 through 1995. The incidence of endosepsis in fruit collected from the tree canopy at either <2.0 m (low) or >2.0 m (high) height, from the north and south of the tree canopy, and from the outer (direct sunlight) and inner (shaded) canopy were similar. More wasps were captured in fig trees located 3.5 to 10 m east or west of the source than in trees 48 to 63 m from the source. In addition, significantly more wasps entered the syconia of trees closest (9 to 12.7 m) to the source than the syconia of the second or third trees (18 to 38.2 m) from the source. Endosepsis decreased with distance from the source, decreasing faster to the south than in other directions from the source. In addition, the disease-vectoring wasps decreased with increased distance from the source, which also described the disease spread from the contamination source for most directions, with a sharper decline south of the source. A 3-year study in three commercial Calimyrna orchards showed there is no secondary spread of fig endosepsis in the field. Although endosepsis can complete as many cycles (three to four) as its vector in fig pollinator trees, in Calimyrna figs it is considered a monocyclic disease. Because fig wasp pollinators prefer to stay close to the contamination source when receptive Calimyrna figs are available in close proximity, only disease sources (caprifigs trees) found among Calimyrna trees or at a distance less than 50 m from the borders of Calimyrna orchards affect endosepsis incidence in commercial orchards. PMID:18944935
Michailides, T J; Morgan, D P
Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality.
Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A.
These excellent animations overlay animations of fire spread on 3D terrain that incorporates satellite imagery. A timeline shows the animation's current time relative to the fire occurrence, and an inset map provides an overhead view of the fire on a map that shows fuels by location. Animations are available for several wildfires that occurred in California.
Johson, Harry D.; University, San D.
This paper proposed an extension of the Madey gain-spread theorem to two-dimensional wigglers and shown it to be quite generally valid. It has the important consequence that an Free Electron Laser(FEL) wiggler which yields gain must at the same time gener...
N. Kroll M. Rosenbluth
A small proportion of air travelers make disproportion- ately more journeys than the rest of travelers. They also tend to interact predominantly with other frequent travelers in hotels and airport lounges. This group has the potential to accelerate global spread of infectious respiratory diseases. Using an epidemiologic model, we simulated exportation of cases from severe acute respiratory syndrome-like and in-
T. Déirdre Hollingsworth; Neil M. Ferguson; Roy M. Anderson
Intrinsic optical signals imaging (IOSI) and laser speckle imaging (LSI) are both novel techniques for functional neuroimaging in vivo. Combining them to study cortical spreading depression (CSD) which is an important disease model for migraine and other neurological disorders. CSD were induced by pinprick in Sprague-Dawley rats. Intrinsic optical signals (IOS) at 540 nm showed CSD evolution happened in one
Shangbin Chen; Pengcheng Li; Weihua Luo; Hui Gong; Haiying Cheng; Qingming Luo
Alphaherpesviruses are pathogens that invade the nervous systems of their mammalian hosts. Directional spread of infection in the nervous system is a key component of the viral lifecycle and is critical for the onset of alphaherpesvirus-related diseases. Many alphaherpesvirus infections originate at peripheral sites, such as epithelial tissues, and then enter neurons of the peripheral nervous system (PNS), where lifelong latency is established. Following reactivation from latency and assembly of new viral particles, the infection typically spreads back out towards the periphery. These spread events result in the characteristic lesions (cold sores) commonly associated with herpes simplex virus (HSV) and herpes zoster (shingles) associated with varicella zoster virus (VZV). Occasionally, the infection spreads transsynaptically from the PNS into higher order neurons of the central nervous system (CNS). Spread of infection into the CNS, while rarer in natural hosts, often results in severe consequences, including death. In this review, we discuss the viral and cellular mechanisms that govern directional spread of infection in the nervous system. We focus on the molecular events that mediate long distance directional transport of viral particles in neurons during entry and egress.
Kramer, Tal; Enquist, Lynn W.
The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading––the geographic spreading centrality––which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.
Nicolaides, Christos; Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis; Gonzalez, Marta C.; Juanes, Ruben
Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime of an individual. Moreover, all these previous results have been obtained for closed populations, where the number of individuals does not change during the whole duration of the epidemics. Here, we go one step further and analyze, both analytically and numerically, a radically different kind of diseases: those that are persistent and can last for an individual’s lifetime. To be more specific, we particularize to the case of tuberculosis’ (TB) infection dynamics, where the infection remains latent for a period of time before showing up and spreading to other individuals. We introduce an epidemiological model for TB-like persistent infections taking into account the heterogeneity inherent to the population structure. This sort of dynamics introduces new analytical and numerical challenges that we are able to sort out. Our results show that also for persistent diseases the epidemic threshold depends on the ratio of the first two moments of the degree distribution so that it goes to zero in a class of scale-free networks when the system approaches the thermodynamic limit.
Sanz, J.; Floría, L. M.; Moreno, Y.
Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive ability.
Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian
Highly heterogeneous degree distributions yield efficient spreading of simple epidemics through networks, but can be inefficient with more complex epidemiological processes. We study diseases with nonlinear force of infection whose prevalences can abruptly collapse to zero while decreasing the transmission parameters. We find that scale-free networks can be unable to support diseases that, on the contrary, are able to persist at high endemic levels in homogeneous networks with the same average degree.
Piccardi, Carlo; Casagrandi, Renato
Two acidified sodium chlorite postmilking teat disinfectants were evaluated for efficacy against Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus agalactiae by using National Mastitis Council experimental challenge procedures. The effect of these teat dips on teat skin and teat end condition was also determined. Both dips contained 0.32% sodium chlorite, 1.32% lactic, and 2.5% glycerin. Dips differed in the amount of sodium dodecylbenzene sulfonic acid (0.53 or 0.27%) added as a surfactant. Both dips significantly reduced new intramammary infection (IMI) rates compared with undipped controls. The dip containing 0.53% dodecylbenzene sulfonic acid reduced new IMI by Staph. aureus by 72% and Strep. agalactiae by 75%. The dip containing 0.27% dodecylbenzene sulfonic acid reduced new IMI by Staph. aureus by 100% and by Strep. agalactiae by 88%. Changes in teat skin and teat end condition for treatment and control groups varied in parallel over time. Teats treated with either teat dip had higher mean teat skin and teat end scores than control teats at some weeks. However, teat skin and teat end condition did not tend to change from the start to the completion of the trial. Application of the two new postmilking teat dips was effective in reducing new IMI from contagious mastitis pathogens. (Key words: teat dip, contagious mastitis, chlorous acid) PMID:11860118
Oura, L Y; Fox, L K; Warf, C C; Kempt, G K
We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1) during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease. PMID:23717512
Liccardo, Antonella; Fierro, Annalisa
We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1) during the season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.
Liccardo, Antonella; Fierro, Annalisa
The influence of controlled vibrations on the granular rheology is investigated in a specifically designed experiment in which a granular film spreads under the action of horizontal vibrations. A nonlinear diffusion equation is derived theoretically that describes the evolution of the deposit shape. A self-similar parabolic shape (the granular droplet) and a spreading dynamics are predicted that both agree quantitatively with the experimental results. The theoretical analysis is used to extract effective friction coefficients between the base and the granular layer under sustained and controlled vibrations. A shear thickening regime characteristic of dense granular flows is evidenced at low vibration energy, both for glass beads and natural sand. Conversely, shear thinning is observed at high agitation.
Sanchez, I.; Raynaud, F.; Lanuza, J.; Andreotti, B.; Clement, E.; Aranson, I. S.; Materials Science Division; Univ. Simon; CNRS-ESPCI-Univ.
Contents: High real interest rates and spreads: An introduction (Spreads and explicit taxes, spreads and implicit taxes on financial intermediation, spreads, operating costs and profits, conclusions and an Agenda for reducing spreads). The costs of interm...
J. A. Hanson R. R. Rocha
Influenza viruses are RNA viruses that are a major determinant of morbidity and mortality caused by respiratory disease. Influenza\\u000a is highly contagious and has caused epidemics and pandemics for centuries. Most influenza infections are selflimited, but\\u000a lower respiratory tract and cardiac complications can result in increases in hospitalizations and deaths. The recommended\\u000a composition of influenza vaccine is updated annually in
Osteosarcoma usually spreads via the blood stream, resulting in pulmonary and skeletal metastases. The value of bone imaging in the management of these patients is widely accepted. Less commonly, the disease spreads via the lymphatics. Such a case is reported to show that bone imaging will detect progressive involvement of the lymph nodes.
A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible
Amos Ssematimba; Thomas J. Hagenaars; Mart C. M. de Jong
This model can be used to create a virtual population to observe how different factors might affect the spread of a disease. Scientists often use computer models to study complicated phenomena like epidemics. This model is a simplified simulation of any disease that is spread through human contact.
DESK Standard: Determine how communicable diseases are spread. . DATES: You can begin this activity on January 8. You should complete it by January 12. OBJECTIVE: Everyone wants to feel healthy because being sick is a drag! We have been discussing ways to prevent the spread of infections and diseases during class. There are many ...
We model simultaneous evolution of an epidemic and information about the epidemic on an adaptive social network. The classical Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model is extended. Susceptible and infectious nodes are each divided into informed and uninformed types. Informed nodes affect the network structure by rewiring their network connections adaptively to avoid disease exposure. The impacts of mass media information and communication on the disease spreading and network structure are explored, and stochastic simulations are compared with a moment closure approximation. When the rewiring rate is high, the infection and information levels of the population show periodic oscillations for certain ranges of contact rate, and the moment closure approximation predicts similar dynamics. The epidemic threshold in the presence of rewiring and information is considered. Our results indicate that information can play a significant role in minimizing disease spread.
The nature of waterborne diseases, among which cholera has a prominent importance, calls for a better understanding of the link between epidemic spreading, water and climate. To this end, we have developed a framework which involves a network-based description of a river system, connected with local communities which act as nodes of the network. This has allowed us to produce consistent simulations of real case studies. More recent investigations comprise the evaluation of the spreading velocity of an epidemic wave by means of a reaction-diffusion modeling approach. In particular, we have found that both transport processes and epidemiological quantities, such as the basic reproduction number, have a crucial effect in controlling the spreading of the epidemics. We first developed a description of bacterial movement along the network driven by advection and diffusion; afterward, we have included the movement of human populations. This latter model allowed us to establish the conditions that can trigger epidemic waves that start from the coastal region, where bacteria are autochthonous, and travel inland. In particular, our findings suggest that even relatively low values of human diffusion can have the epidemic propagate upstream. The interaction between climate, hydrology and epidemic events is still much debated, since no clear correlation between climatologic and epidemiological phenomena has emerged so far. However, a spatial assessment of hydrological and epidemiological mechanisms could be crucial to understand the evolution of cholera outbreaks. In particular, a hotly debated topic is the understanding of the mechanisms that can generate patterns of cholera incidence that exhibit an intra-annual double peak, as frequently observed in endemic region such as Bangladesh. One of the possible explanations proposed in the literature is that spring droughts cause bacteria concentration in water to rise dramatically, triggering the first peak. On the other hand similar mechanisms can occur during flood recessions in autumn together with major water sanitation system failures and higher population density. We show here the results of an ecohydrological model that couples the dynamics of the disease to a description of both the local water reservoir and of the local river section. The goal of this modeling exercise is to reproduce and understand the mechanisms behind intra-annual cholera incidence dynamics driven by hydrologic variability.
Righetto, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea
We argue for decreasing the use of the word "spread" when describing the statistical idea of dispersion or variability in introductory statistics courses. In addition, we argue for increasing the use of the word "variability" as a replacement for "spread."
Kaplan, Jennifer J.; Rogness, Neal T.; Fisher, Diane G.
The opinion spreading process can be modeled as the spread of an epidemic through a network, which assumes homogeneous relationships between individuals. However, positive and negative relationships in signed networks play different roles in the opinion spreading process, following the general rule that the same opinion will diffuse through friends, while the opposite opinion will likely emerge out of interactions between enemies. In order to explore opinion spreading behavior in signed networks, we proposed a simple opinion spreading model based on the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model. Under the assumption of homogeneous mixing, we also analyzed the phase transition of opinion spreading in signed networks and found that critical spreading rates were closely related to the fraction of positive relationships in signed networks. Finally, we confirmed the correctness of our solutions using numerical simulations of the opinion spreading model in signed networks.
Li, Wei; Fan, Pengyi; Li, Pei; Wang, Hui; Pan, Yiguang
This technical note provides a survey of spread spectrum techniques and applications. Included are discussions of the various spread spectrum modulating techniques, system processing gains, and resistivity to jamming and interference. (Author)
R. E. Lueg R. A. Freet
Explained is the methodology used in the USDA marketing spreads series for white pan bread which involves price spreads, farm value of ingredients, and cost of farm ingredients to flour millers and bakeries. Ingredients have changed in relation to changes...
L. D. Schnake
Forty-three consecutive specimens of resected rectal carcinomas, 16 abdominoperineal and 27 anterior resections, were examined\\u000a for distal intramural spread. Thirty-four of the resections were considered curative and nine palliative. Eighteen carcinomas\\u000a (42 percent) showed no distal spread, and 14 (33 percent) showed very limited distal spread (0–5 mm). In the remaining cases,\\u000a 11 (25 percent) had distal spread of more
Per M. Madsen; John Christiansen
The spread between two lines in rational trigonometry replaces the concept of angle, allowing the complete specification of many geometrical and dynamical situations which have traditionally been viewed approximately. This paper investigates the case of powers of a rational spread rotation, and in particular, a curious periodicity in the prime power decomposition of the associated values of the spread polynomials,
Shuxiang Goh; N. J. Wildberger
The brain is a complex organ with active components composed largely of neurons, glial cells, and blood vessels. There exists an enormous experimental and theoretical literature on the mechanisms involved in the functioning of the brain, but we still do not have a good understanding of how it works on a gross mechanistic level. In general, the brain maintains a homeostatic state with relatively small ion concentration changes, the major ions being sodium, potassium, and chloride. Calcium ions are present in smaller quantities but still play an important role in many phenomena. Cortical spreading depression (CSD for short) was discovered over 60 years ago by A.A.P. Leão, a Brazilian physiologist doing his doctoral research on epilepsy at Harvard University, “Spreading depression of activity in the cerebral cortex," J. Neurophysiol., 7 (1944), pp. 359-390. Cortical spreading depression is characterized by massive changes in ionic concentrations and slow nonlinear chemical waves, with speeds on the order of mm/min, in the cortex of different brain structures in various experimental animals. In humans, CSD is associated with migraine with aura, where a light scintillation in the visual field propagates, then disappears, and is followed by a sustained headache. To date, CSD remains an enigma, and further detailed experimental and theoretical investigations are needed to develop a comprehensive picture of the diverse mechanisms involved in producing CSD. A number of mechanisms have been hypothesized to be important for CSD wave propagation. In this paper, we briefly describe several characteristics of CSD wave propagation, and examine some of the mechanisms that are believed to be important, including ion diffusion, membrane ionic currents, osmotic effects, spatial buffering, neurotransmitter substances, gap junctions, metabolic pumps, and synaptic connections. Continuum models of CSD, consisting of coupled nonlinear diffusion equations for the ion concentrations, and a discrete lattice-Boltzmann method approach will be described. Also, we will describe some open problems and remaining challenges.
Miura, R. M.; Huang, H.; Wylie, J. J.
Systems and methods are described for hybrid spread spectrum radio systems. A method includes modulating a signal by utilizing a subset of bits from a pseudo-random code generator to control an amplification circuit that provides a gain to the signal. Another method includes: modulating a signal by utilizing a subset of bits from a pseudo-random code generator to control a fast hopping frequency synthesizer; and fast frequency hopping the signal with the fast hopping frequency synthesizer, wherein multiple frequency hops occur within a single data-bit time.
Smith, Stephen F. (London, TN); Dress, William B. (Camas, WA)
Knowledge and insights gained over the past few decades pertaining to the clinical and dermoscopic primary morphology of melanoma has greatly increased the authors' appreciation of the varied faces of this malignancy. This knowledge has improved their ability to detect early melanoma and may in part explain the observed increase in the percentage of thin melanomas being diagnosed today as compared to the past. The authors have previously published in this journal an article on the dermoscopic patterns of melanoma. In this review they will focus on specific dermoscopic structures that are frequently observed in the most common subtype of melanoma, the superficial spreading melanoma. PMID:19218911
Obieta, M P; Braun, R P; Scope, A; Rabinovitz, H; Marghoob, A A
Spreading cell fronts are essential features of development, repair and disease processes. Many mathematical models used to describe the motion of cell fronts, such as Fisher's equation, invoke a mean–field assumption which implies that there is no spatial structure, such as cell clustering, present. Here, we examine the presence of spatial structure using a combination of in vitro circular barrier assays, discrete random walk simulations and pair correlation functions. In particular, we analyse discrete simulation data using pair correlation functions to show that spatial structure can form in a spreading population of cells either through sufficiently strong cell–to–cell adhesion or sufficiently rapid cell proliferation. We analyse images from a circular barrier assay describing the spreading of a population of MM127 melanoma cells using the same pair correlation functions. Our results indicate that the spreading melanoma cell populations remain very close to spatially uniform, suggesting that the strength of cell–to–cell adhesion and the rate of cell proliferation are both sufficiently small so as not to induce any spatial patterning in the spreading populations.
Treloar, Katrina K.; Simpson, Matthew J.; Binder, Benjamin J.; McElwain, D. L. Sean; Baker, Ruth E.
... the spread of Chagas disease. Further, screening of blood donations for Chagas is another important public health tool ... Parasite That Causes Chagas Disease Among United States Blood Donors Contact Us: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ...
Infectious Bursal Disease Virus (IBDV) is a highly contagious disease of chickens, which is controlled by live and inactivated vaccines. In this study, we evaluated a novel approach to vaccinate chickens against IBDV using DNA vaccinology. Plasmid DNA was administered in ovo to 18-day-old embryos. The DNA vaccine expresses the polyprotein VP2-VP4-VP3 of IBDV. The VP2 gene expresses epitopes of
L. Moura; M. Liu; V. N. Vakharia
A parabolic system with linear interactions is considered with specific applications to the spread of infectious diseases. Using a Payne-type functional we prove the global existence of a unique solution and analyze its large time behaviour. (author). 14 ...
M. Kirane S. Kouachi
Mycoplasma agalactiae p40 Gene, a Novel Marker for Diagnosis of Contagious Agalactia in Sheep by Real-Time PCR: Assessment of Analytical Performance and In-House Validation Using Naturally Contaminated Milk Samples
We evaluated the capacity of the Mycoplasma agalactiae p40 gene as a diagnostic marker for contagious agalactia in sheep by quantitative real-time PCR. The p40 gene encodes an immunodominant adhesin that plays a key role in cytoadhesion of M. agalactiae. The assay was 100% specific, with an analytical sensitivity of 1 genome equivalent (GE), a quantification that is highly linear
Katarína Oravcova; Lorena Lopez-Enríquez; David Rodríguez-Lazaro; Marta Hernandez
The emergence of resistance to former first-line antimalarial drugs has been an unmitigated disaster. In recent years, artemisinin class drugs have become standard and they are considered an essential tool for helping to eradicate the disease. However, their ability to reduce morbidity and mortality and to slow transmission requires the maintenance of effectiveness. Recently, an artemisinin delayed-clearance phenotype was described. This is believed to be the precursor to resistance and threatens local elimination and global eradication plans. Understanding how resistance emerges and spreads is important for developing strategies to contain its spread. Resistance is the result of two processes: (i) drug selection of resistant parasites; and (ii) the spread of resistance. In this review, we examine the factors that lead to both drug selection and the spread of resistance. We then examine strategies for controlling the spread of resistance, pointing out the complexities and deficiencies in predicting how resistance will spread.
During an epidemic of dermatophytosis of the groin which occurred in a sanatorium and which was caused by E floccosum and T rubrum, the following was observed: (1) Relative contagiousness of the infection which was limited in general to the groins but whi...
H. Neves N. C. Xavier
In patients with multiple myeloma (MM), the bone marrow (BM) contains hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and non-hematopoietic cells. HSCs are able to give rise to all types of mature blood cells, while the non hematopoietic component includes mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), fibroblasts, osteoblasts, osteoclasts, chondroclasts, endothelial cells, endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs), B and T lymphocytes, NK cells, erythrocytes, megakaryocytes, platelets, macrophages and mast cells. All of these cells form specialized "niches" in the BM microenvironment which are close to the vasculature ("vascular niche") or to the endosteum ("osteoblast niche"). The "vascular niche" is rich in blood vessels where endothelial cells and mural cells (pericytes and smooth muscle cells) create a microenvironment that affects the behavior of several stem and progenitor cells. The vessel wall serves as an independent niche for the recruitment of endothelial progenitor cells, MSCs and HSCs. The activation by angiogenic factors and inflammatory cytokines switch the "vascular niche" to promote MM tumor growth and spread. This review will focus on the mechanisms involved in the generation of signals released by endothelial cells in the "vascular niche" that promote tumor growth and spread in MM. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. PMID:24862128
Ribatti, Domenico; Moschetta, Michele; Vacca, Angelo
Analyses of outbreaks of African horse sickness showed that movement of infected Culicoides midges on the wind was most likely responsible for the spread of the disease over the sea from Morocco to Spain in 1966, from Turkey to Cyprus in 1960, and from Senegal to the Cape Verde Islands in 1943. The pattern of spread of the epidemic in the Middle East in 1960 could have been laid down by the infected midges carried on spells of south-east winds, and analyses of outbreaks in Algeria in 1965 and India in 1960 also suggested windborne spread of the disease. Each spread occurred when the presence of virus, host and vector coincided either with a spell of winds unusual for a particular time of year (Spain, Cyprus, Cape Verde Islands and Algeria) or with a series of disturbances usual at that time of the year (Middle East and India). Inferred flight endurance of the midge varied up to at least 20 h and flight range from 40 to 700 km. Flight occurred when temperatures were likely to have been in the range of 15-25 °C if it was at night or 20 to about 40 °C if it was by day. It is suggested that likely movements of midges on the wind can be estimated from synoptic weather charts, and should be taken into account when planning control of the disease in the face of an outbreak. Such control includes a ban on movement of horses, vaccination and spraying of insecticide. The risk of spread to countries outside the endemic areas should be assessed by reference to possible wind dispersal of infected midges.
Sellers, R. F.; Pedgley, D. E.; Tucker, M. R.
In recent years the vector-borne diseases (VBD) are (re)-emerging and spreading across the world having a profound impact on human and veterinary health, ecology, socio-economics and disease management. Arguably the best-documented example of veterinary importance is the recent twofold invasion of bluetongue (BT) in Europe. Much attention has been devoted to derive presence-absence habitat distribution models and to model transmission through direct contact. Limited research has focused on the dynamic modelling of wind mediated BT spread. This paper shows the results of a stochastic predictive model used to assess the spread of bluetongue by vectors considering both wind-independent and wind-mediated movement of the vectors. The model was parameterised using epidemiological knowledge from the BTV8 epidemic in 2006/2007 and the BTV1 epidemic in 2008 in South-France. The model correctly reflects the total surface of the infected zone (overall accuracy=0.77; sensitivity=0.94; specificity=0.65) whilst slightly overestimating spatial case density. The model was used operationally in spring 2009 to predict further spread of BTV1. This allowed veterinary officers in Belgium to decide whether there was a risk of introduction of BTV1 from France into Belgium and thus, whether there was a need for vaccination. Given the far distance from the predicted infected zone to the Belgian border, it was decided not to vaccinate against BTV1 in 2009 in Belgium. PMID:21300413
Ducheyne, Els; Lange, Martin; Van der Stede, Yves; Meroc, Estelle; Durand, Benoit; Hendrickx, Guy
We present a simple model for the spatial spread of rabies among foxes and use it to quantify its progress in England if rabies were introduced. The model is based on the known ecology of fox behaviour and on the assumption that the main vector for the spread of the disease is the rabid fox. Known data and facts are used to determine real parameter values involved in the model. We calculate the speed of propagation of the epizootic front, the threshold for the existence of an epidemic, the period and distance apart of the subsequent cyclical epidemics which follow the main front, and finally we quantify a means for control of the spatial spread of the disease. By way of illustration we use the model to determine the progress of rabies up through the southern part of England if it were introduced near Southampton. Estimates for the current fox density in England were used in the simulations. These suggest that the disease would reach Manchester within about 3.5 years, moving at speeds as high as 100 km per year in the central region. The model further indicates that although it might seem that the disease had disappeared after the wave had passed it would reappear in the south of England after just over 6 years and at periodic times after that. We consider the possibility of stopping the spread of the disease by creating a rabies `break' ahead of the front through vaccination to reduce the population to a level below the threshold for an epidemic to exist. Based on parameter values relevant to England, we estimate its minimum width to be about 15 km. The model suggests that vaccination has considerable advantages over severe culling.
Murray, J. D.; Stanley, E. A.; Brown, D. L.
We report two cases of unusual combined extrapelvic and extraperitoneal extension of recurrent gastric adenocarcinoma and describe the imaging findings of the preferential anatomic pathway of disease spread. Extrapelvic and extraperitoneal extension of recurrent gastric adenocarcinoma is rare, and its symptoms may be vague and nonspecific. If patients with a surgical history of gastrointestinal neoplasm present with diffuse abdominal pain or painful swelling of the lower extremities, disease spread to the extrapelvic and extraperitoneal spaces should be suspected. PMID:12703005
Shin, Hee Jung; Cho, On Koo; Rhim, Hyunchul; Koh, Byung Hee; Kim, Yongsoo; Seo, Heung Suk
Outbreaks of infectious agricultural diseases, whether natural occurring or introduced intentionally, could have catastrophic impacts on the U.S. economy. Examples of such agricultural pathogens include foot and mouth disease (FMD), avian influenza (AI), citrus canker, wheat and soy rust, etc. Current approaches to mitigate the spread of agricultural pathogens include quarantine, development of vaccines for animal diseases, and development of
Rita G. Betty; Jill Marie Bieker; Mark David Tucker
Our view of the endothelium was transformed around 30 years ago, from one of an inert barrier to that of a key endocrine organ central to cardiovascular function. This dramatic change followed the discoveries that endothelial cells (ECs) elaborate the vasodilators prostacyclin and nitric oxide. The key to these discoveries was the use of the quintessentially pharmacological technique of bioassay. Bioassay also revealed endothelium-derived hyperpolarizing factor (EDHF), particularly important in small arteries and influencing blood pressure and flow distribution. The basic idea of EDHF as a diffusible factor causing smooth muscle hyperpolarization (and thus vasodilatation) has evolved into one of a complex pathway activated by endothelial Ca2+ opening two Ca2+-sensitive K+-channels, KCa2.3 and KCa3.1. Combined application of apamin and charybdotoxin blocked EDHF responses, revealing the critical role of these channels as iberiotoxin was unable to substitute for charybdotoxin. We showed these channels are arranged in endothelial microdomains, particularly within projections towards the adjacent smooth muscle, and close to interendothelial gap junctions. Activation of KCa channels hyperpolarizes ECs, and K+ efflux through them can act as a diffusible ‘EDHF’ stimulating Na+/K+-ATPase and inwardly rectifying K-channels. In parallel, hyperpolarizing current can spread from the endothelium to the smooth muscle through myoendothelial gap junctions upon endothelial projections. The resulting radial hyperpolarization mobilized by EDHF is complemented by spread of hyperpolarization along arteries and arterioles, effecting distant dilatation dependent on the endothelium. So the complexity of the endothelium still continues to amaze and, as knowledge evolves, provides considerable potential for novel approaches to modulate blood pressure. LINKED ARTICLES This article is part of a themed issue on Vascular Endothelium in Health and Disease. To view the other articles in this issue visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bph.2011.164.issue-3
Garland, Christopher J; Hiley, C Robin; Dora, Kim A
In order to investigate the influence of heterogeneity of the underlying networks and quarantine strategy on epidemic spreading, a SIQRS epidemic model on the scale-free networks is presented. Using the mean field theory the spreading dynamics of the virus is analyzed. The spreading critical threshold and equilibria are derived. Theoretical results indicate that the critical threshold value is significantly dependent on the topology of the underlying networks and quarantine rate. The existence of equilibria is determined by threshold value. The stability of disease-free equilibrium and the permanence of the disease are proved. Numerical simulations confirmed the analytical results.
Li, Tao; Wang, Yuanmei; Guan, Zhi-Hong