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Sample records for create climatic conservation

  1. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Creating a Collaborative Conservation Vision in the Face of Climate Change Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Athearn, N.; Schlafmann, D.

    2015-12-01

    The 22 Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) form a "network of networks," each defined by the characteristics of its ecoregion and its unique community of conservation managers, practitioners, and scientists. As self-directed partnerships, LCCs are strongly influenced not only by the landscape but by the evolving cultures and values that define the multi-faceted relationships between people and place. LCCs maintain an ecologically connected network across these diverse landscapes by transcending borders and leveraging resources. Natural resource managers are challenged to make decisions in the face of multiple uncertainties, and several partners across the network have recognized that climate change is one important uncertainty that spans boundaries - both across the conservation community and beyond. The impacts of climate change across the LCC Network are likely to be as diverse as the network itself - manifesting as, for example, sea level rise, ocean acidification, loss of sea ice, and shifts in climate patterns and timing - but synergies are being leveraged within and between LCCs and national climate-focused programs to systematically address the needs of the network to support a collaborative conservation vision that addresses multiple landscape-scale stressors in the face of climate uncertainties. This vision is being achieved by leveraging the convening power of the LCCs and collaborating with DOI Climate Science Centers and others. Selected case studies will demonstrate how the network finds strength in its differences, but also reveals powerful collaborative opportunities through integrated science, shared conservation strategies, and strategic approaches for translating targeted science to conservation action. These examples exemplify past successes as well as ongoing efforts as the network continues to bring about effective application of climate science to achieve conservation outcomes across the LCC Network in an uncertain future climate.

  2. Climate change, wine, and conservation.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

    2013-04-23

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

  3. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    PubMed Central

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A.; Hijmans, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

  4. Climate change - creating watershed resilience

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is likely to intensify the circulation of water, which will shift spatial and temporal availability of snowmelt and runoff. In addition, drought and floods are likely to be more frequent, severe and widespread. Higher air temperatures will lead to higher ocean temperatures, elevating ...

  5. Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.

  6. Creating Constructive Dialogues Around Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Presenting scientific facts to the general public often creates strong emotional responses in listeners. This is especially the case around issues like climate change, in which strong resistance can arise in individuals and groups. This is an inherent psychological characteristic when conveying disturbing information to people. In this presentation, I will describe personal experiences of presenting climate change science in various public forums. In particular, I will describe two experiences: one in which I was able to effectively work with the emotional reactions to the scientific information and another in which the resistance was difficult to resolve within the group. Based on these experiences and others, I describe an innovative four-stage process for working with situations in which there is strong resistance to the science of climate change (or other challenging scientific issues). I conclude by discussing how this approach can be employed and potential pitfalls with such an approach.

  7. Creating an organizational climate for multiculturalism.

    PubMed

    Bruhn, J G

    1996-06-01

    Multiculturism is an ideal goal for our society, its organizations, and its institutions, involving a continuous process of education and change within organizations. Multiculturalism begins with diversity and requires various steps to achieve changes in attitudes, behaviors, and values. The leadership of organizations must not only commit to diversification, but they must participate in it and reward its efforts. Diversification should be managed by creating a climate of open participation, feedback, and control at the lower organizational levels. To micromanage the process of becoming diverse increases resistance and paranoia and counters educational efforts. PMID:10157003

  8. Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Groves, Craig R.; Game, Edward T.; Anderson, Mark G.; Cross, Molly; Enquist, Carolyn; Ferdana, Zach; Girvetz, Evan; Gondor, Anne; Hall, Kimberly R.; Higgins, Jonathan; Marshall, Rob; Popper, Ken; Schill, Steve; Shafer, Sarah L.

    2012-01-01

    The principles of systematic conservation planning are now widely used by governments and non-government organizations alike to develop biodiversity conservation plans for countries, states, regions, and ecoregions. Many of the species and ecosystems these plans were designed to conserve are now being affected by climate change, and there is a critical need to incorporate new and complementary approaches into these plans that will aid species and ecosystems in adjusting to potential climate change impacts. We propose five approaches to climate change adaptation that can be integrated into existing or new biodiversity conservation plans: (1) conserving the geophysical stage, (2) protecting climatic refugia, (3) enhancing regional connectivity, (4) sustaining ecosystem process and function, and (5) capitalizing on opportunities emerging in response to climate change. We discuss both key assumptions behind each approach and the trade-offs involved in using the approach for conservation planning. We also summarize additional data beyond those typically used in systematic conservation plans required to implement these approaches. A major strength of these approaches is that they are largely robust to the uncertainty in how climate impacts may manifest in any given region.

  9. Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

  10. Portfolio conservation of metapopulations under climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Sean C; Moore, Jonathan W; McClure, Michelle M; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Cooper, Andrew B

    2015-03-01

    Climate change is likely to lead to increasing population variability and extinction risk. Theoretically, greater population diversity should buffer against rising climate variability, and this theory is often invoked as a reason for greater conservation. However, this has rarely been quantified. Here we show how a portfolio approach to managing population diversity can inform metapopulation conservation priorities in a changing world. We develop a salmon metapopulation model in which productivity is driven by spatially distributed thermal tolerance and patterns of short- and long-term climate change. We then implement spatial conservation scenarios that control population carrying capacities and evaluate the metapopulation portfolios as a financial manager might: along axes of conservation risk and return. We show that preserving a diversity of thermal tolerances minimizes risk, given environmental stochasticity, and ensures persistence, given long-term environmental change. When the thermal tolerances of populations are unknown, doubling the number of populations conserved may nearly halve expected metapopulation variability. However, this reduction in variability can come at the expense of long-term persistence if climate change increasingly restricts available habitat, forcing ecological managers to balance society's desire for short-term stability and long-term viability. Our findings suggest the importance of conserving the processes that promote thermal-tolerance diversity, such as genetic diversity, habitat heterogeneity, and natural disturbance regimes, and demonstrate that diverse natural portfolios may be critical for metapopulation conservation in the face of increasing climate variability and change. PMID:26263675

  11. Climate variations, soil conservation and reservoir sedimentation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The integrated effects of soil conservation and a wetter climate on reservoir sedimentation were investigated for the Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed in west-central Oklahoma. A 12% wetter climate since the mid-1980s led to an increase in soil erosion and downstream sediment yield that offset the redu...

  12. Climate Creators. Dynamic Characteristics of People Who Create Positive Organizational Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bedley, Gene

    This book contains practical information on creating a positive work climate within an organization. Twenty separate characteristics of successful "climate creators" are discussed. Information is also included on: (1) climate; (2) climate creators; (3) dynamic characteristics of climate creators; (4) the challenge of creating a positive climate;…

  13. Conservation practices for climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change presents a major challenge to sustainable land management (USDA NRCS 2010). Several reports have reported that over the last few decades rainfall intensities have also increased in many parts of the world, including in the United States. Without good productive soils and the ecosyste...

  14. Conservation Planning with Uncertain Climate Change Projections

    PubMed Central

    Moilanen, Atte; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe. PMID:23405068

  15. Creating Space: Engaging Deliberation about Climate Action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phear, Nicolette

    In the United States public discourse, climate change is often framed as a polarized and intractable issue. The purpose of this dissertation was to explore deliberation about climate action, and to evaluate whether effective responses to climate change can be facilitated through new structures and processes that enable and encourage dialogue on the subject of how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Working with sustainability leaders at the University of Montana and in the community of Missoula, Montana, the author convened three public deliberations, in which a variety of solutions to climate change were discussed. Three questions guided this study: 1) what motivated individuals to engage in deliberation about climate action; 2) how did individual engagement vary and affect the quality of the deliberation; and 3) how effective were the deliberations in building a sense of individual agency and generating collaborative action strategies to address climate change. Based on a rigorous statistical analysis of survey responses combined with qualitative data, this action research study offers a holistic exploration of the three deliberative events convened. The deliberative processes generated collaborative action strategies and increased participants' sense of agency to take action on climate change; the findings also revealed differences in the ways individuals engaged and affected the quality of the overall group deliberation. This dissertation contributes to the literature on collaborative responses and collective action on climate change, broadens understanding of deliberative processes, and provides new insight into opportunities for leading deliberation about climate action.

  16. Creating School Climates that Prevent School Violence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Reece L.; Skiba, Russell

    2000-01-01

    This article focuses on several approaches for schools to use of improve school climate, in part to prevent violence or at least to improve student behavioral conflicts, including: parent and community involvement, character education, violence-prevention and conflict-resolution curricula, peer mediation, and bullying prevention. (Contains…

  17. Climate Change: Creating an Integrated Framework for Improving School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alliance for Excellent Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    This report from the Alliance finds that schools that struggle most with providing a positive school climate more often disproportionately serve students of color and low-income students. It also confirms that students of color and students from low-income families are less likely to have access to rigorous course work and experienced teachers,…

  18. Creating Humane Climates Outdoors: A People Skills Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knapp, Clifford E.

    Designed to provide practical assistance in implementing outdoor learning experiences for youth and adults, this book helps professionals plan their leadership development programs and create more humane climates in a variety of outdoor settings. The book treats the three topics of self-knowledge, human communities, and outdoor-environmental…

  19. Creating a Learning Climate: A South African Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carrim, Nasima Mohamed Hoosen; Basson, Johan Schutte

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to ascertain whether there were differences in how one public and two private South African organizations created a learning climate. Design/methodology/approach: This article is based on a survey and comparative analysis of specific departments in a chemical and gas company, an insurance company, and a…

  20. Creating a Positive School Climate at the Junior High Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Licata, Vincent F.

    One of the seven correlates of an effective school, as identified by the Effective Schools Research, is a positive school climate: a positive attitude on the part of the entire staff and student body exhibited through overt behavior that creates a warm, orderly learning environment. Development of such an environment depends upon: (1) strong…

  1. Impact of weather and climate scenarios on conservation assessment outcomes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This paper reviews selected watershed studies of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) and interprets findings from the perspective of potential climate change impacts on conservation outcomes. Primary foci are runoff, soil erosion, sediment transport, watershed sediment yield, and asso...

  2. Integrating Climate and Ocean Change Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mcleod, E.; Green, A.; Game, E.; Anthony, K.; Cinner, J.; Heron, S. F.; Kleypas, J. A.; Lovelock, C.; Pandolfi, J.; Pressey, B.; Salm, R.; Schill, S.; Woodroffe, C. D.

    2013-05-01

    Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. We address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.

  3. Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments

    PubMed Central

    Lawler, Joshua; Watson, James; Game, Edward

    2015-01-01

    An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation—a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems. PMID:26937271

  4. Creating a Learning Community for Solutions to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bloom, A. J.; Benedict, B. A.; Blockstein, D. E.; Hassenzahl, D. M.; Hunter, A.; Jorgensen, A. D.; Pfirman, S. L.

    2011-12-01

    The rapidly evolving and interdisciplinary nature of climate change presents a challenge to colleges and universities as they seek to educate undergraduate students. To address this challenge, the National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) with NSF funding is creating a nationwide cyber-enabled learning community called CAMEL (Climate, Adaptation, and Mitigation e-Learning). CAMEL engages experts in science, policy and decision-making, education, and assessment in the production of a virtual toolbox of curricular resources designed for teaching climate change causes, consequences, and solutions. CAMEL is: ? Developing cyberinfrastructure that supports and promotes the creation of materials and community; ? Generating materials for the Encyclopedia of Earth, a site averaging 50,000 views per day; ? Ensuring that materials developed and shared are founded on the best available scientific information and follow the most appropriate educational practices; ? Assisting faculty at institutions of higher education across the United States as they create, improve, test, and share resources for teaching students not only how to diagnose climate change problems, but also to identify and effect solutions; ? Evaluating the determinants of successful community building using cybermedia. The community and resultant content range from general education to upper division courses for students in a variety of majors. At the center of the community are the 160 colleges and universities represented in NCSE's Council of Environmental Deans and Directors. Members of this group represent recognized expertise in virtually all areas of this project. A team with substantial experience with evaluating innovative initiatives in STEM education is administering the evaluation component.

  5. Climate change and water conservation effects on water availability and vegetation patterns in a stream valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Knaap, Yasmijn; de Graaf, Myrjam; van Ek, Remco; Witte, Jan-Philip; Aerts, Rien; Bierkens, Marc; van Bodegom, Peter

    2014-05-01

    Climate change predictions include an increase in global temperature and changes in precipitation patterns at spatial and seasonal scale. The seasonal changes for temperate Europe include a decrease in the amount of precipitation in summer and an increase in winter. This may lead to an increased flooding risk in winter and early spring, while in summer the drought risk is likely to increase. These hydrological changes can have profound effects on vegetation patterns and development, especially for groundwater dependent vegetation. Water conservation measures can be used to combat the potential negative effects of these changes. Conservation measures can include aquifer storage and recovery, damming streams, or creating retention zones for flooding events. The implementation of these measures can contribute to preserving groundwater dependent vegetation patterns. In this study we simulated with an integrated surface- and groundwater model and a climate robust vegetation model, the implementation of water conservation measures in a stream valley catchment in the Netherlands. We modeled the effects on water availability and on vegetation patterns. The conservation measures were simulated for the current climate and for two climate scenarios, with a temperature increase of two degrees Celsius and either an increase or decrease in precipitation. Water tables were increased in stream valley zones, where groundwater dependent vegetation dominates, to ensure suitable abiotic conditions. The results showed that the water conservation measures increased the water table considerably in a future climate, compared to no conservation measures. Groundwater dependent vegetation was positively stimulated with these new hydrological conditions. With these models we successfully tested the effectiveness of the water conservation measures on water availability and vegetation patterns to ameliorate the negative effects of climate change. We therefore argue that water conservation

  6. Agricultural management options for climate variability and change: conservation tillage

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Adapting to climate variability and change can be achieved through a broad range of management alternatives and technological advances. This publication is focused on the use of conservation tillage in crop production systems. The publication outlines ways that conservation tillage can reduce risk r...

  7. Climate-smart conservation: putting adaption principles into practice

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, Bruce A.; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda

    2014-01-01

    Climate change already is having significant impacts on the nation’s species and ecosystems, and these effects are projected to increase considerably over time. As a result, climate change is now a primary lens through which conservation and natural resource management must be viewed. How should we prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change on wildlife and their habitats? What should we be doing differently in light of these climatic shifts, and what actions continue to make sense? Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice offers guidance for designing and carrying out conservation in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Traditionally, conservationists have focused their efforts on protecting and managing systems to maintain their current state, or to restore degraded systems back to a historical state regarded as more desirable. Conservation planners and practitioners will need to adopt forward-looking goals and implement strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to current and future climatic changes, and the associated impacts on natural systems and human communities—an emerging discipline known as climate change adaptation. The field of climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. Although there is increasing attention focused on the subject, much of the guidance developed to date has been general in nature, concentrating on high-level principles rather than specific actions. It is against this backdrop that this guide was prepared as a means for helping put adaptation principles into practice, and for moving adaptation from planning to action.

  8. Designing climate-smart conservation: guidance and case studies.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Lara; Hoffman, Jennifer; Drews, Carlos; Mielbrecht, Eric

    2010-02-01

    To be successful, conservation practitioners and resource managers must fully integrate the effects of climate change into all planning projects. Some conservation practitioners are beginning to develop, test, and implement new approaches that are designed to deal with climate change. We devised four basic tenets that are essential in climate-change adaptation for conservation: protect adequate and appropriate space, reduce nonclimate stresses, use adaptive management to implement and test climate-change adaptation strategies, and work to reduce the rate and extent of climate change to reduce overall risk. To illustrate how this approach applies in the real world, we explored case studies of coral reefs in the Florida Keys; mangrove forests in Fiji, Tanzania, and Cameroon; sea-level rise and sea turtles in the Caribbean; tigers in the Sundarbans of India; and national planning in Madagascar. Through implementation of these tenets conservation efforts in each of these regions can be made more robust in the face of climate change. Although these approaches require reconsidering some traditional approaches to conservation, this new paradigm is technologically, economically, and intellectually feasible. PMID:20121842

  9. Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heller, Nicole E.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Ackerly, David; Weiss, Stuart; Recinos, Amanda; Branciforte, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Micheli, Elisabeth

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species, which shift in response to climate change. Climate is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We propose conservation networks that capture the full range of climatic diversity in a region will improve the resilience of biotic communities to climate change compared to networks that do not. In this study we used historical and future hydro-climate projections from the high resolution Basin Characterization Model to explore the utility of directly targeting climatic diversity in planning. Using the spatial planning tool, Marxan, we designed conservation networks to capture the diversity of climate types, at the regional and sub-regional scale, and compared them to networks we designed to capture the diversity of vegetation types. By focusing on the Conservation Lands Network (CLN) of the San Francisco Bay Area as a real-world case study, we compared the potential resilience of networks by examining two factors: the range of climate space captured, and climatic stability to 18 future climates, reflecting different emission scenarios and global climate models. We found that the climate-based network planned at the sub-regional scale captured a greater range of climate space and showed higher climatic stability than the vegetation and regional based-networks. At the same time, differences among network scenarios are small relative to the variance in climate stability across global climate models. Across different projected futures, topographically heterogeneous areas

  10. Climate Change Hastens the Conservation Urgency of an Endangered Ungulate

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Junhua; Jiang, Zhigang

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change. PMID:21826214

  11. Creating Classroom-Level Measures of Citizenship Education Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barber, Carolyn; Sweetwood, Sachiko Ogata; King, Makini

    2015-01-01

    Optimal classroom climates for civic education encourage the development of knowledge, skills and dispositions necessary for students to become involved citizens. One of the simplest and most common ways of measuring classroom climate in this field is to aggregate individual students' perceptions of classroom climate to the group level; however,…

  12. Creating a Partnering Community Aimed to Foster Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutherford, D.; McNeal, K. S.; Smith, R.; Hare, D.; Nair, U. S.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) is a part of the Climate Change Education Program supported by the National Science Foundation (http://CLiPSE-project.org). The established CLiPSE partnership is dedicated to improving climate literacy in the southeast through crafting a shared vision and strategic plan among stakeholders that promotes scientific formal and informal educational resources, materials and programs; a diverse network of key partnering organizations throughout the Southeastern United States (SE US); and effective public dialogues that address diverse learners and audiences and supports learning of climate, climate change, and its relevance upon human and environmental systems. The CLiPSE project has been successful in creating partnerships with more than fifty key stakeholders that stem from a few key publics such as agriculture, education, leisure, religious organizations, and culturally diverse communities. These key publics in the SE US frequently consist of individuals that place great trust in local, private efforts, and CLiPSE has realized the importance of the role of the partnering organizations in providing information through a trusted source. A second unique characteristic of the SE US is the predominately conservative and Protestant citizenry in the region. Working with and through these communities enhances climate change education outreach to this citizenry. The CLiPSE project rests on solid climate science and learning science research in order to formulate an effective plan with desired learning outcomes of critical thinking and civil conversation through effective communication strategies. This paper will present the CLiPSE model in reaching the key publics that traditionally hold ideologies that are traditionally perceived as incompatible with climate change science. We will present the strategies utilized to bring together experts and researchers in climate science, learning science, and social science with

  13. Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.

    PubMed

    Koopowitz, Harold; Hawkins, Bradford A

    2012-06-01

    Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world. PMID:22691199

  14. Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar.

    PubMed

    Busch, Jonah; Dave, Radhika; Hannah, Lee; Cameron, Alison; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Roehrdanz, Patrick; Schatz, George

    2012-06-01

    We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges from 2000 to 2080 of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar under 3 climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 ha of forest cover for each species and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each scenario. We interviewed managers of projects to restore native forests and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species, we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species' ranges, the overlap between species' ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species' ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha); avoidance of forest degradation (i.e., loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha); avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha); and establishment of forest on nonforested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that although forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible. PMID:22497442

  15. Climate Change and Conservation Planning in California: The San Francisco Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Branciforte, R.; Weiss, S. B.; Schaefer, N.

    2008-12-01

    Climate change threatens California's vast and unique biodiversity. The Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals is a comprehensive regional biodiversity assessment of the 9 counties surrounding San Francisco Bay, and is designing conservation land networks that will serve to protect, manage, and restore that biodiversity. Conservation goals for vegetation, rare plants, mammals, birds, fish, amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates are set, and those goals are met using the optimization algorithm MARXAN. Climate change issues are being considered in the assessment and network design in several ways. The high spatial variability at mesoclimatic and topoclimatic scales in California creates high local biodiversity, and provides some degree of local resiliency to macroclimatic change. Mesoclimatic variability from 800 m scale PRISM climatic norms is used to assess "mesoclimate spaces" in distinct mountain ranges, so that high mesoclimatic variability, especially local extremes that likely support range limits of species and potential climatic refugia, can be captured in the network. Quantitative measures of network resiliency to climate change include the spatial range of key temperature and precipitation variables within planning units. Topoclimatic variability provides a finer-grained spatial patterning. Downscaling to the topoclimatic scale (10-50 m scale) includes modeling solar radiation across DEMs for predicting maximum temperature differentials, and topographic position indices for modeling minimum temperature differentials. PRISM data are also used to differentiate grasslands into distinct warm and cool types. The overall conservation strategy includes local and regional connectivity so that range shifts can be accommodated.

  16. Climate Change Denial Books and Conservative Think Tanks

    PubMed Central

    Jacques, Peter J.

    2013-01-01

    The conservative movement and especially its think tanks play a critical role in denying the reality and significance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), especially by manufacturing uncertainty over climate science. Books denying AGW are a crucial means of attacking climate science and scientists, and we examine the links between conservative think tanks (CTTs) and 108 climate change denial books published through 2010. We find a strong link, albeit noticeably weaker for the growing number of self-published denial books. We also examine the national origins of the books and the academic backgrounds of their authors or editors, finding that with the help of American CTTs climate change denial has spread to several other nations and that an increasing portion of denial books are produced by individuals with no scientific training. It appears that at least 90% of denial books do not undergo peer review, allowing authors or editors to recycle scientifically unfounded claims that are then amplified by the conservative movement, media, and political elites. PMID:24098056

  17. Comparison of the Motivational Climates Created during Multi-Activity Instruction and Sport Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Mitchum B.; Curtner-Smith, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has suggested that sport education (SE) may be a superior curriculum model to multi-activity (MA) teaching because its pedagogies and structures create a task-involving motivational climate. The purpose of this study was to describe and compare the objective motivational climates teachers create within the MA and SE models.…

  18. Large climate-moderating envelopes for enclosed structures: a preliminary evaluation of energy conservation potential

    SciTech Connect

    Wendt, R.L.; Giles, G.E.; Park, J.E.

    1981-12-01

    An investigation was made of the basic impacts of putting a large secondary enclosure around a number of functions and thereby creating a Large Climate Moderating Envelope (LCME). This study is a preliminary estimate of the energy conservation benefits of an LCME. A hypothetical LMCE design was chosen and a coupled fluid dynamic and energy transport analysis was performed to estimate the energy conservation potential of this design. The heat transfer models included insolation, outside air temperature and wind, thermal radiation exchange with the sky, and between the fabric and ground and thermal storage in the earth mass beneath the LCME. The energy transported within the fluid by the buoyancy driven circulation was modeled as an incompressible fluid utilizing the Boussinesq approximation. The climatic conditions were assumed to vary in smooth repeating daily cycles. The numerical simulation of climatic variation was continued until the results within the LCME achieved a repeating daily cycle. The results for selected seasonally characteristic days were utilized to estimate the annual energy consumption of structures within an LCME relative to similar structures exposed to the exterior environment. The relative annual energy savings for summer-dominated climates was estimated to be approx. 70%. The energy savings for a winter-dominated climate LCME were estimated to be somewhat smaller but the LCME concept could offer significant benefits for agricultural applications for this type of climate.

  19. Building evolutionary resilience for conserving biodiversity under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Sgrò, Carla M; Lowe, Andrew J; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2011-01-01

    Evolution occurs rapidly and is an ongoing process in our environments. Evolutionary principles need to be built into conservation efforts, particularly given the stressful conditions organisms are increasingly likely to experience because of climate change and ongoing habitat fragmentation. The concept of evolutionary resilience is a way of emphasizing evolutionary processes in conservation and landscape planning. From an evolutionary perspective, landscapes need to allow in situ selection and capture high levels of genetic variation essential for responding to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We summarize ideas that need to be considered in planning for evolutionary resilience and suggest how they might be incorporated into policy and management to ensure that resilience is maintained in the face of environmental degradation. PMID:25567976

  20. Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Dawson, Terence P; Jackson, Stephen T; House, Joanna I; Prentice, Iain Colin; Mace, Georgina M

    2011-04-01

    Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species' natural resilience. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water. PMID:21454781

  1. An Intervention to Assist Teachers in Creating Supportive Classroom Climates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lynch, Patrick D.; Barnette, J. Jackson

    Modification of teacher behavior using videotapes and the Withall Social Emotional Climate and Golloway instruments to classify teacher behaviors resulted in maintaining positive pupil attitudes toward school and teachers and self-esteem over one academic year. Previous studies had shown a decline in these types of pupil attitudes during an…

  2. Estimating climate resilience for conservation across geophysical settings.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Mark G; Clark, Melissa; Sheldon, Arlene Olivero

    2014-08-01

    Conservationists need methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every 405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high-scoring sites had the greatest resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their high-quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High-scoring sites captured significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations. Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies-for every geophysical setting-sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands. PMID:24673543

  3. Strategies for Creating a Caring Learning Climate in Physical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Weidong

    2015-01-01

    Teacher-student interactions are at the core of the teaching-learning process. There is research evidence showing that a teacher's caring behavior is strongly related to students' attitudes and engagement in physical education (PE). This article discusses practical strategies that PE teachers can employ to create a caring learning environment,…

  4. Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wintle, Brendan A.; Bekessy, Sarah A.; Keith, David A.; van Wilgen, Brian W.; Cabeza, Mar; Schröder, Boris; Carvalho, Silvia B.; Falcucci, Alessandra; Maiorano, Luigi; Regan, Tracey J.; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi; Possingham, Hugh P.

    2011-10-01

    Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems. Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change. Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints. Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments. Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

  5. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances

    PubMed Central

    Magris, Rafael A.; Heron, Scott F.; Pressey, Robert L.

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985–2009) and projected (2010–2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming. PMID:26535586

  6. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

    PubMed

    Magris, Rafael A; Heron, Scott F; Pressey, Robert L

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985-2009) and projected (2010-2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming. PMID:26535586

  7. Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Online Course: An Effective Tool for Creating Extension Competency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitefield, Elizabeth; Schmidt, David; Witt-Swanson, Lindsay; Smith, David; Pronto, Jennifer; Knox, Pam; Powers, Crystal

    2016-01-01

    There is a need to create competency among Extension professionals on the topic of climate change adaptation and mitigation in animal agriculture. The Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate online course provides an easily accessible, user-friendly, free, and interactive experience for learning science-based information on a national and…

  8. Watershed Conservation, Groundwater Management, and Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roumasset, J.; Burnett, K.; Wada, C.

    2009-12-01

    Sustainability science is transdisciplinary, organizing research to deliver meaningful and practical contributions to critical issues of resource management. As yet, however, sustainability science has not been integrated with the policy sciences. We provide a step towards integration by providing an integrated model of optimal groundwater management and investment in watershed conservation. The joint optimization problem is solved under alternative forecasts of the changing rainfall distribution for the Koolau Watershed in Oahu, Hawaii. Optimal groundwater management is solved using a simplified one-dimensional model of the groundwater aquifer for analytical tractability. For a constant aquifer recharge, the model solves for the optimal trajectories of water extraction up to the desalination steady state and an incentive compatible pricing scheme. The Koolau Watershed is currently being degraded, however, by invasive plants such as Miconia calvescens and feral animals, especially wild pigs. Runoff and erosion have increased and groundwater recharge is at risk. The Koolau Partnership, a coalition of private owners, the State Department of Land and Natural Resources have proposed a $5 million (present value) conservation plan that promises to halt further losses of recharge. We compare this to the enhanced present value of the aquifer, showing the benefits are an order of magnitude greater than the costs. If conservation is done in the absence of efficient groundwater management, however, more than 40% of the potential benefits would be wasted by under-pricing and overconsumption. We require an estimate of the rainfall-generating distribution and how that distribution is changing over time. We obtain these from statistical downsizing of IPCC climate models. Despite the finding that global warming will increase precipitation for most of the world, the opposite is forecast for Hawaii. A University of Hawaii study finds that the most likely precipitation scenario is a

  9. Northwest Climate Science Center: Integrating Regional Research, Conservation and Natural Resource Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Bisbal, G.

    2012-12-01

    The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) was established in 2010, among the first three of eight regional Climate Science Centers created by the Department of the Interior (DOI). The NW CSC is supported by an academic consortium (Oregon State University, University of Idaho, and the University of Washington), which has the capacity to generate and coordinate decision-relevant science related to climate, thus serving stakeholders across the Pacific Northwest region. The NW CSC has overlapping boundaries with three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): the Great Northern, the Great Basin, and the North Pacific. Collaboration between the NW CSC and these three LCCs addresses the highest priority regional climate science needs of Northwest natural and cultural resource managers. Early in 2012, the NW CSC released its first Strategic Plan for the period 2012-2015. The plan offers a practical blueprint for operation and describes five core services that the NW CSC provides to the Northwest community. These core services emphasize (a) bringing together the regional resource management and science communities to calibrate priorities and ensure efficient integration of climate science resources and tools when addressing practical issues of regional significance; (b) developing and implementing a stakeholder-driven science agenda which highlights the NW CSC's regional leadership in generating scenarios of the future environment of the NW; (c) supporting and training graduate students at the three consortium universities, including through an annual 'Climate science boot camp'; (d) providing a platform for effective climate-change-related communication among scientists, resource managers, and the general public; and (e) national leadership in data management and climate scenario development.

  10. Creating a climate literate society: A review of efforts to ensure climate literate citizens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niepold, F.; McCaffery, M.; Barstow, D.

    2008-12-01

    This session will present about the effort to develop the Climate Literacy essential principles and fundamental concepts using the AAAS Project 2061 Atlas of Science. The development team included representatives from federal science agencies, formal and informal educators, non-governmental organizations, and other institutions involved with climate research, education, and outreach. This effort resulted in a guide that can be used to engage the broad community to develop a robust conceptual framework that addresses the essential principles and fundamental concepts that climate literate citizens and students should know. That document has been reviewed and commented on extensively during several reviews. A recent report completed for NOAA by the Center for Earth and Space Science Education (/Revolutionizing Earth System Science Education for the 21st Century/) found that Earth system science education in the United States is in need of significant improvement. The report finds that there is great variation in how states incorporate modern Earth and climate science into their science standards. Through a partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Project 2061 we have collaborated to define climate literacy and develop weather and climate benchmarks for science literacy. The newly developed and revised national weather and climate science education standards were published in March of 2007 in the AAAS Project 2061 Atlas for Science Literacy volume II served as a basis for the climate literacy effort. The Climate Literacy essential principles and fundamental concepts are available at: http://www.climate.noaa.gov/education/ and through the Climate Literacy Network at http://www.climateliteracynow.org.

  11. Using student generated blogs to create a global perspective on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuenemann, K. C.

    2012-12-01

    Students in an introductory Global Climate Change college course develop a global perspective on climate change causes, impacts, and mitigation through the use of student generated content in the form of blogging. The students are from diverse backgrounds and mostly non-science majors. They each create a blog for an assigned country. They are immersed in active learning through daily activities that teach them to use numerical data to create and analyze graphs for their blogs. Students are familiarized with other science skills as well, such as how to critically evaluate their sources. This method of using student generated content and active learning encourages students to immerse themselves in the viewpoint of people living in other countries. This creates a tangible understanding of the global stakes of climate change and fosters an emotional involvement in what otherwise might have been an abstract or intimidating topic. The front page of the course blog opens with a world map and a feed from each student's blog. Upon clicking on a country on the world map, the reader is taken to the blog page created by the student in charge of that country. The United States is reserved as a sample page created by the instructor. Throughout the semester, students follow a series of assignments that build their knowledge of the geography, climate, and culture of their assigned country, and these appear as tabs, or informational pages, on their blog. Students are taught to use Excel and they each create temperature and precipitation graphs that compare the climate of a city in their assigned country to that of their home city. Students then write their first blog post on their country's contribution to climate change and how that compares to other countries in the world by importing carbon dioxide emissions data into Excel and creating their own graphs to be used as images in their blog post. The second blog post covers potential climate change impacts on their assigned country

  12. Managing aquatic species of conservation concern in the face of climate change and invasive species.

    PubMed

    Rahel, Frank J; Bierwagen, Britta; Taniguchi, Yoshinori

    2008-06-01

    The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species. PMID:18577084

  13. Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Jason L; Yoder, Anne D

    2015-01-01

    Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into

  14. Climate for Learning: A Symposium. Creating a Climate for Learning, and the Humanizing Process. The Principal and School Discipline. Curriculum Bulletin Vol. XXXII, No. 341.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Simon O.; Chaky, June

    This publication contains two articles focusing on creating a climate for learning. In "Creating a Climate for Learning, and the Humanizing Process," Simon O. Johnson offers practical suggestions for creating a humanistic learning environment. The author begins by defining the basic concepts--humanism, affective education, affective situation,…

  15. Creating Climate Change Awareness in South African Schools through Practical Chemistry Demonstrations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sunassee, Suthananda N.; Young, Ryan M.; Sewry, Joyce D.; Harrison, Timothy G.; Shallcross, Dudley E.

    2012-01-01

    In accordance with the requirements for the National Curriculum Statement for both Life sciences and Physical sciences and the importance of community engagement in Higher Education in South Africa, this paper described the use of the lecture-demonstration "A Pollutant's Tale" to create climate change awareness amongst school learners.…

  16. Creating a Positive Social-Emotional Climate in Your Elementary Physical Education Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gagnon, Amy G.

    2016-01-01

    Creating a positive social-emotional climate must be the backbone of a quality elementary physical education program. The need to belong, have friends, and feel emotionally safe are basic needs everyone has, but meeting these needs in the classroom can be challenging at times. Strategies regarding how to implement a positive social-emotional…

  17. Creating a Climate for Innovation in Education: Reframing Structure, Culture, and Leadership Practices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong-Kam, JoAnn C. W. N.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this study was on creating a climate for innovation in schools to lead to improvements in student achievement. Bolman and Deal's (2008) four frame model of organizational thinking was used as a framework for the study. The study examined the influence of leadership practices, structure, and school culture in the context of a K-12…

  18. Perceived coach-created and peer-created motivational climates and their associations with team cohesion and athlete satisfaction: evidence from a longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    García-Calvo, Tomás; Leo, Francisco Miguel; Gonzalez-Ponce, Inmaculada; Sánchez-Miguel, Pedro Antonio; Mouratidis, Athanasios; Ntoumanis, Nikos

    2014-01-01

    In this longitudinal study, we examined the extent to which perceived coach- and peer-created motivational climates are associated with athlete-group cohesion and satisfaction with participation among Spanish soccer players competing in the Third National Division. Multilevel modelling analyses showed that perceived coach-created task climate was positively related to perceived cohesion and players' satisfaction with their participation within their team. Also, perceived peer-created task climate related positively to perceived cohesion. The results indicate the importance of considering peer-related aspects of the motivational climate in addition to considering the coach-related aspects of the motivational climate when examining motivational group dynamics in sport. PMID:24911047

  19. Estimating Climate Resilience for Conservation across Geophysical Settings

    PubMed Central

    ANDERSON, MARK G; CLARK, MELISSA; SHELDON, ARLENE OLIVERO

    2014-01-01

    Conservationists need methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every 405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high-scoring sites had the greatest resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their high-quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High-scoring sites captured significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations. Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies—for every geophysical setting—sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands. Identificación de Sitios Duraderos para la Conservación Usando la Diversidad del Paisaje y las Conexiones Locales para Estimar la Capacidad de Recuperación al Cambio Climático Resumen Los conservacionistas necesitan un método mediante el cual

  20. Economic costs of achieving current conservation goals in the future as climate changes.

    PubMed

    Shaw, M Rebecca; Klausmeyer, Kirk; Cameron, D Richard; Mackenzie, Jason; Roehrdanz, Patrick

    2012-06-01

    Conservation of biologically diverse regions has thus far been accomplished largely through the establishment and maintenance of protected areas. Climate change is expected to shift climate space of many species outside existing reserve boundaries. We used climate-envelope models to examine shifts in climate space of 11 species that are representative of the Mount Hamilton Project area (MHPA) (California, U.S.A.), which includes areas within Alameda, Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and San Benito counties and is in the state's Central Coast ecoregion. We used Marxan site-selection software to determine the minimum area required as climate changes to achieve a baseline conservation goal equal to 80% of existing climate space for all species in the MHPA through 2050 and 2100. Additionally, we assessed the costs associated with use of existing conservation strategies (land acquisition and management actions such as species translocation, monitoring, and captive breeding) necessary to meet current species-conservation goals as climate changes. Meeting conservation goals as climate changes through 2050 required an additional 256,000 ha (332%) of protected area, primarily to the south and west of the MHPA. Through 2050 the total cost of land acquisition and management was estimated at US$1.67-1.79 billion, or 139-149% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. To maintain 80% of climate space through 2100 required nearly 380,000 additional hectares that would cost $2.46-2.62 billion, or 209-219% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. Furthermore, maintaining 80% of existing climate space within California for 27% of the focal species was not possible by 2100 because climate space for these species did not exist in the state. The high costs of conserving species as the climate changes-that we found in an assessment of one conservation project-highlights the need for tools that will aid

  1. Biodiversity funds and conservation needs in the EU under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Lung, Tobias; Meller, Laura; van Teeffelen, Astrid J.A.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Cabeza, Mar

    2014-01-01

    Despite ambitious biodiversity policy goals, less than a fifth of the European Union’s (EU) legally protected species and habitats show a favorable conservation status. The recent EU biodiversity strategy recognizes that climate change adds to the challenge of halting biodiversity loss, and that an optimal distribution of financial resources is needed. Here, we analyze recent EU biodiversity funding from a climate change perspective. We compare the allocation of funds to the distribution of both current conservation priorities (within and beyond Natura 2000) and future conservation needs at the level of NUTS-2 regions, using modelled bird distributions as indicators of conservation value. We find that funding is reasonably well aligned with current conservation efforts but poorly fit with future needs under climate change, indicating obstacles for implementing adaptation measures. We suggest revising EU biodiversity funding instruments for the 2014-2020 budget period to better account for potential climate change impacts on biodiversity. PMID:25264456

  2. Biodiversity funds and conservation needs in the EU under climate change.

    PubMed

    Lung, Tobias; Meller, Laura; van Teeffelen, Astrid J A; Thuiller, Wilfried; Cabeza, Mar

    2014-07-01

    Despite ambitious biodiversity policy goals, less than a fifth of the European Union's (EU) legally protected species and habitats show a favorable conservation status. The recent EU biodiversity strategy recognizes that climate change adds to the challenge of halting biodiversity loss, and that an optimal distribution of financial resources is needed. Here, we analyze recent EU biodiversity funding from a climate change perspective. We compare the allocation of funds to the distribution of both current conservation priorities (within and beyond Natura 2000) and future conservation needs at the level of NUTS-2 regions, using modelled bird distributions as indicators of conservation value. We find that funding is reasonably well aligned with current conservation efforts but poorly fit with future needs under climate change, indicating obstacles for implementing adaptation measures. We suggest revising EU biodiversity funding instruments for the 2014-2020 budget period to better account for potential climate change impacts on biodiversity. PMID:25264456

  3. Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sofaer, Helen; Skagen, Susan; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland

  4. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

    PubMed Central

    Friggens, Megan M.; Finch, Deborah M.

    2015-01-01

    Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be

  5. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.

    PubMed

    Friggens, Megan M; Finch, Deborah M

    2015-01-01

    Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used

  6. Creating a Library of Climate Change Education Resources for Audiences in the Southeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carroll, J.; McNeal, K. S.; Williams, C. C.; Paz, J. O.; Cho, H. "; Nair, U. S.; Geroux, J.; Guthrie, C.; Wright, K.; Hill, J.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) is a part of the Climate Change Education Program supported by the National Science Foundation (http://CLiPSE-project.org). The established CLiPSE partnership is dedicated to improving climate literacy in the southeast and promoting scientifically accurate, formal educational resources for the K-12 classroom audience, as well as informal educational resources for audiences such as agriculture, education, leisure, and religious organizations, to name a few. The CLiPSE project has been successful in creating partnerships with the National Geographic Alliances, Departments of Education, and Mississippi Environmental Education Alliance, among others, to determine an effective strategic plan for reaching K-12 audiences. One goal in the strategic plan is to create a catalog of climate change education resources that are aligned to state standards in the SE. Eighty-seven resources from the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (http://cleanet.org) have been aligned with the state education standards for grades six through twelve in the southeast, beginning with science in Mississippi and expanding to include science and math in the remaining SE states. The criteria for aligning the existing resources includes: matching key terms, topics, and lesson activities with the content strands and essential skills included in the state science framework. By developing a searchable database containing climate resources already aligned with state standards, CLiPSE will have made these resources more appealing to educators in the SE, increasing the likelihood of resources being implemented in the classroom. The CLiPSE Climate Science Team has also created an inventory of scientifically sound, informal resources, which will be available for dispersion to appropriate audiences and communities. Cataloged resources, both formal and informal, grouped by a variety of means, to include audience, grade level, and resource

  7. Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act.

    PubMed

    Bernazzani, Paola; Bradley, Bethany A; Opperman, Jeffrey J

    2012-06-01

    Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs. PMID:22535183

  8. Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

    PubMed Central

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-01-01

    Background Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. Methodology/Principal Findings We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070–2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Conclusions/Significance Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to

  9. Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change.

    PubMed

    Schueler, Silvio; Falk, Wolfgang; Koskela, Jarkko; Lefèvre, François; Bozzano, Michele; Hubert, Jason; Kraigher, Hojka; Longauer, Roman; Olrik, Ditte C

    2014-05-01

    A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes. PMID:24273066

  10. Creating "Intelligent" Climate Model Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, N. C.; Taylor, P. C.

    2014-12-01

    The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to

  11. Public Support for Conserving Bird Species Runs Counter to Climate Change Impacts on Their Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Lundhede, Thomas Hedemark; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick; Fjeldså, Jon; Rahbek, Carsten; Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that global climate change will alter the spatiotemporal occurrences and abundances of many species at continental scales. This will have implications for efficient conservation of biodiversity. We investigate if the general public in Denmark are willing to pay for the preservation of birds potentially immigrating and establishing breeding populations due to climate change to the same extent that they are for native species populations currently breeding in Denmark, but potentially emigrating due to climate change. We find that Danish citizens are willing to pay much more for the conservation of birds currently native to Denmark, than for bird species moving into the country – even when they are informed about the potential range shifts associated with climate change. The only exception is when immigrating species populations are under pressure at European level. Furthermore, people believing climate change to be man-made and people more knowledgeable about birds tended to have higher WTP for conservation of native species, relative to other people, whereas their preferences for conserving immigrant species generally resembled those of other people. Conservation investments rely heavily on public funding and hence on public support. Our results suggest that cross-country coordination of conservation efforts under climate change will be challenging in terms of achieving an appropriate balance between cost-effectiveness in adaptation and the concerns of a general public who seem mostly worried about protecting currently-native species. PMID:24984055

  12. Projecting Urban Water Demand in California: Effects of Climate, Demographics, Technology, Conservation, and Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heberger, M. G.; Christian-Smith, J.

    2010-12-01

    California's growing population is increasingly urban, with 98% of its 38 million people currently living in cities and suburbs. The state has added an estimated 4.5 million people since 2000, with Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sacramento among the 12 fastest-growing cities in the United States. While agriculture continues to use the majority of the state's water supply, urban water demand is growing rapidly and straining available supplies. Warming due to climate change is causing increases in water demand for landscape irrigation and commercial and industrial cooling. We have developed an easy-to-use planning tool to create spatial and temporal forecasts of future urban water demand out to the year 2100. It allows the user to estimate future water demand under a number of scenarios of climate change and demographic change. We use downscaled climate model output to estimate landscape and cooling water demand for each decade from 1950 to 2100 (Maurer and Hidalgo 2007). Planners can use the model to estimate the water-use impacts of urban growth and future land use, as well as water conservation programs and regulations. One may also examine economic effects such as changes in water prices or rate structures. The model includes the effects of building codes, plumbing and appliance standards in bringing about "passive savings" over time. Our modeling work to date suggests that current conservation strategies and efficiency gains already underway in California will increase urban water-use efficiency over the next two decades. While per-capita water use decreases, overall demand is likely to increase due to population growth. Under current policies and trends, statewide urban water demand may increase from 9 million acre-feet in 2005 (11 billion m3) to 12 maf (15 billion m3) in 2050. Implementing aggressive conservation strategies allows for continued population growth without increasing water use. This type of scenario-based planning aids water planners and managers in

  13. Climate change and biodiversity conservation: impacts, adaptation strategies and future research directions

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Kai MA

    2009-01-01

    The impacts of climate change pose fundamental challenges for current approaches to biodiversity conservation. Changing temperature and precipitation regimes will interact with existing drivers such as habitat loss to influence species distributions despite their protection within reserve boundaries. In this report we summarize a suite of current adaptation proposals for conservation, and highlight some key issues to be resolved. PMID:20948670

  14. Conservation practices and their potential to mitigate climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The resilience of agricultural systems to climate change is dependent on the ability of the soil to capture and supply water to the plant at critical times in order to overcome the potential negative impacts of rising temperature. Climate change will occur as not only changes in the mean values of t...

  15. Conservation strategies to adapt to projected climate change impacts in Malawi

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There is potential for climate change to have negative effects on agricultural production via extreme events (Pruski and Nearing, 2002b; Zhang et al., 2012; Walthall 2012), and there is a need to implement conservation practices for climate change adaptation (Delgado et al. 2011; 2013). Recent repo...

  16. Sensitivity of modeled Cretaceous climate to insolation forcing created by varying Earth-Sun orbital relationships

    SciTech Connect

    Glancy, T.J. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Rhythmic sedimentation patterns observed within the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway, such as those in the Bridge Creek Limestone Member of the Greenhorn Limestone Formation exposed near Pueblo, Colorado, appear to be a response to episodic climate change. These climatic variations could, in turn, be forced by the periodic insolation change over the North American continent created by Milankovitch-scale Earth-Sun orbital relationships - eccentricity (100 kiloyears), obliquity (41 kiloyears) and precession of the equinox (23 kiloyears). To test the sensitivity of Cretaceous climate to changes in Milankovitch-scale insolation forcing, a set of seasonal simulations using maximum difference insolation forcing conditions was conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate Model using 100 MA Cretaceous paleogeography and paleotopography. Analysis showed statistically significant differences in surface temperature, precipitation, surface wind, storm track location, and upwelling occurred over many regions of the Cretaceous Earth, particularly in the summer and winter monsoon system. During Northern Hemisphere winter, differences in the position of storm passage over Cretaceous western North America under maximum difference insolation forcing conditions varies the precipitation received over the southern Western Interior Seaway at the location where the Bridge Creek Limestone Member rhythmic sedimentation was produced. Northern Hemisphere winter simulations removing all sea ice from the model showed little difference in the climatic effects observed over southwestern North America from the case with sea ice present. Additional simulations varying only the obliquity within the model suggest that the observed Bridge Creek Limestone Member rhythmic sedimentation patterns are controlled by climatic change produced by cyclic variation in the precession of the equinox and eccentricity insolation forcing.

  17. Impacts of climate change on prioritizing conservation areas of hydrological ecosystem services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lien, Wan Yu; Lin, Yu Pin

    2015-04-01

    Ecosystem services (ESs) including hydrological services play important roles in our daily life and provide a lot of benefits for human beings from ecological systems. The systems and their services may be threatened by climate change from global to local scales. We herein developed a systematic approach to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological ecosystem services, such as water yield, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) retention, and soil retention in a watershed in Northern Taiwan. We first used an ecosystem service evaluation model, InVEST, to estimate the amount and spatial patterns of annual and monthly hydrological ecosystem services under historical weather data, and different climate change scenarios based on five GMSs. The monthly and annual spatiotemporal variations of the ESs were analyzed in this study. Finally, the multiple estimated ESs were considered as the protection conservation targets and regarded as the input data of the systematic conservation planning software, Zonation, to systematically prioritize reserve areas of the ESs under the climate change scenarios. The ES estimation results indicated that the increasing rainfall in wet season leads to the higher water yield and results in the higher sediment and nutrient export indirectly. The Zonation successfully fielded conservation priorities of the ESs. The conservation priorities of the ESs significantly varied spatially and monthly under the climate change scenarios. The ESs results also indicated that the areas where ESs values and conservation priorities with low resilience under climate change should be considered as high priority protected area to ensure the hydrological services in future. Our proposed approach is a novel systematic approach which can be applied to assess impacts of climate change on spatiotemporal variations of ESs as well as prioritize protected area of the ESs under various climate change scenarios. Keyword: climate change, ecosystem service

  18. Systematic conservation planning for California avifauna in a climate change context (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stralberg, D.; Veloz, S.; Jongsomjit, D.; Gardali, T.; Howell, C.; Alexander, J.; Snyder, M. A.; Nur, N.; Ballard, G.; Wiens, J.

    2010-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) based on climate variables are often used to quantify and describe the spatial distributions of species under current and projected future climate conditions. While such models are generally developed at the continental level for the purpose of projecting broad-scale range shifts, there is an increasing demand for projections at scales fine enough to inform land-management decisions and conservation priorities. In a state as topographically complex as California, significant downscaling is required to adapt general circulation model (GCM) projections to conservation planning applications. We used 30-km regional climate model projections for 2038-2070 with boundary conditions taken from two GCMs under the SRES A2 (high CO2 emissions) scenario and downscaled them to an 800-m resolution based on PRISM climate normals for 1970-2000. Bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation normals were used to model the distributions of 203 California landbird taxa and to identify the species whose distributions are most likely to be affected by climate change. To synthesize the geographic implications of these individual SDM projections, we used the systematic conservation planning software Zonation to identify priority areas for avian conservation based on current and projected future distributions of all taxa. We used the California Bird Species of Special Concern framework to weight species according to conservation status, compared two prioritization algorithms, and incorporated SDM and climate model uncertainty into the prioritization exercise. The resulting areas of high conservation value were intersected with current protected areas to identify conservation gaps. Portions of the north and central coast were identified as consistent yet largely unprotected “hotspots” for current and future bird distributions. This approach illustrates how species distribution modeling, coupled with planning tools such as Zonation

  19. Should social psychologists create a disciplinary affirmative action program for political conservatives?

    PubMed

    Shweder, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Freely staying on the move between alternative points of view is the best antidote to dogmatism. Robert Merton's ideals for an epistemic community are sufficient to correct pseudo-empirical studies designed to confirm beliefs that liberals (or conservatives) think deserve to be true. Institutionalizing the self-proclaimed political identities of social psychologists may make things worse. PMID:26787422

  20. Climate change impacts on soil and water conservation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A 2003 report of the Soil and Water Conservation Society concluded that changes in long-term precipitation may substantial impact runoff and soil erosion. These findings call for a review of current approaches to estimating runoff and soil erosion from agricultural lands, enhancements to soil and wa...

  1. Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

    PubMed

    Estes, Lyndon D; Paroz, Lydie-Line; Bradley, Bethany A; Green, Jonathan M H; Hole, David G; Holness, Stephen; Ziv, Guy; Oppenheimer, Michael G; Wilcove, David S

    2014-04-01

    Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. PMID:24372589

  2. Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research.

    PubMed

    Parmesan, Camille; Burrows, Michael T; Duarte, Carlos M; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Richardson, Anthony J; Schoeman, David S; Singer, Michael C

    2013-05-01

    There is increasing pressure from policymakers for ecologists to generate more detailed 'attribution' analyses aimed at quantitatively estimating relative contributions of different driving forces, including anthropogenic climate change (ACC), to observed biological changes. Here, we argue that this approach is not productive for ecological studies. Global meta-analyses of diverse species, regions and ecosystems have already given us 'very high confidence' [sensu Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)] that ACC has impacted wild species in a general sense. Further, for well-studied species or systems, synthesis of experiments and models with long-term observations has given us similarly high confidence that they have been impacted by regional climate change (regardless of its cause). However, the role of greenhouse gases in driving these impacts has not been estimated quantitatively. Should this be an ecological research priority? We argue that development of quantitative ecological models for this purpose faces several impediments, particularly the existence of strong, non-additive interactions among different external factors. However, even with current understanding of impacts of global warming, there are myriad climate change adaptation options already developed in the literature that could be, and in fact are being, implemented now. PMID:23679010

  3. Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Langham, Gary M.; Schuetz, Justin G.; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U.; Wilsey, Chad

    2015-01-01

    Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation. PMID:26333202

  4. Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Langham, Gary M; Schuetz, Justin G; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U; Wilsey, Chad

    2015-01-01

    Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation. PMID:26333202

  5. Private land manager capacity to conserve threatened communities under climate change.

    PubMed

    Raymond, C M; Lechner, A M; Lockwood, M; Carter, O; Harris, R M B; Gilfedder, L

    2015-08-15

    Major global changes in vegetation community distributions and ecosystem processes are expected as a result of climate change. In agricultural regions with a predominance of private land, biodiversity outcomes will depend on the adaptive capacity of individual land managers, as well as their willingness to engage with conservation programs and actions. Understanding adaptive capacity of landholders is critical for assessing future prospects for biodiversity conservation in privately owned agricultural landscapes globally, given projected climate change. This paper is the first to develop and apply a set of statistical methods (correlation and bionomial regression analyses) for combining social data on land manager adaptive capacity and factors associated with conservation program participation with biophysical data describing the current and projected-future distribution of climate suitable for vegetation communities. We apply these methods to the Tasmanian Midlands region of Tasmania, Australia and discuss the implications of the modelled results on conservation program strategy design in other contexts. We find that the integrated results can be used by environmental management organisations to design community engagement programs, and to tailor their messages to land managers with different capacity types and information behaviours. We encourage environmental agencies to target high capacity land managers by diffusing climate change and grassland management information through well respected conservation NGOs and farm system groups, and engage low capacity land managers via formalized mentoring programs. PMID:26067646

  6. Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

    PubMed

    Maxwell, Sean L; Venter, Oscar; Jones, Kendall R; Watson, James E M

    2015-10-01

    The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation. PMID:26555860

  7. Noah’s Ark Conservation Will Not Preserve Threatened Ecological Communities under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Rebecca Mary Bernadette; Carter, Oberon; Gilfedder, Louise; Porfirio, Luciana Laura; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel Lee

    2015-01-01

    Background Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. Methods We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. Results All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition. Conclusions As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and

  8. Global Priority Conservation Areas in the Face of 21st Century Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

    2013-01-01

    In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the “Global 200” ecoregions – a set of priority ecoregions designed to “achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth’s ecosystems” – over the 21st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991–2010 and 2081–2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change. PMID:23359638

  9. Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation

    PubMed Central

    Rohr, Jason R.; Raffel, Thomas R.; Blaustein, Andrew R.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Paull, Sara H.; Young, Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations. PMID:27293606

  10. Water management, purification, and conservation in arid climates. Volume 3: Water conservation

    SciTech Connect

    Goosen, M.F.A.; Shayya, W.H.

    1999-07-01

    Arid regions are already feeling the severe restraining effects of potable water shortages. In coming years, humid and sub-humid regions of the world will also have to face many of these same problems. In the future, serious conflicts may arise not because of a lack of oil, but due to water shortages. Are there solutions to these problems? Aside from increasing public awareness about the importance of water, society needs to take a three pronged approach: water needs to be effectively managed, it needs to be economically purified, and it needs to be conserved. Only by doing these three things in unison can they hope to alleviate the water problems faced by arid regions of the world. This book presents information valuable to seeking, finding and using current technologies to help solve these problems now. Volume 3 addresses aspects of water conservation and includes rainwater harvesting and wastewater reuse and reclamation.

  11. Creating Protected Areas on Public Lands: Is There Room for Additional Conservation?

    PubMed Central

    Arriagada, Rodrigo A.; Echeverria, Cristian M.; Moya, Danisa E.

    2016-01-01

    Most evaluations of the effectiveness of PAs have relied on indirect estimates based on comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Such methods can be biased when protection is not randomly assigned. We add to the growing literature on the impact of PAs by answering the following research questions: What is the impact of Chilean PAs on deforestation which occurred between 1986 and 2011? How do estimates of the impact of PAs vary when using only public land as control units? We show that the characteristics of the areas in which protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. To satisfactorily estimate the effects of PAs, we use matching methods to define adequate control groups, but not as in previous research. We construct control groups using separately non-protected private areas and non-protected public lands. We find that PAs avoid deforestation when using unprotected private lands as valid controls, however results show no impact when the control group is based only on unprotected public land. Different land management regimes, and higher levels of enforcement inside public lands may reduce the opportunity to add additional conservation benefits when the national systems for PAs are based on the protection of previously unprotected public lands. Given that not all PAs are established to avoid deforestation, results also admit the potential for future studies to include other outcomes including forest degradation (not just deforestation), biodiversity, wildlife, primary forests (not forests in general), among others. PMID:26848856

  12. Assessing impact of climate change on soil erosion and conservation in southern Loess Plateau of China

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    As clearly stated in a special report from the Soil and Water Conservation Society, the potential for projected climate changes to increase the risk of soil erosion and related environmental consequences is clear, but the potential damages are not. There is a need to assess the potential damages acr...

  13. Conservation practices to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted into the atmosphere by human activities have increased radiative forcing and caused an increase in the global mean temperature of approximately 0.74°C over the past century. In terms of soil conservation, expected consequences of future climate change include changes ...

  14. Opportunities to Improve Urban and Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change Through Conservation of Green Space.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heller, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    The conservation of biotic communities in urbanized ecosystems is critical in light of heightened vulnerability due to climate change. Conservation of large open spaces around cities and smaller 'green' spaces within cities - such as forest patches and wetlands - has the capacity to diminish the vulnerability of human communities to higher temperatures, water shortages, increased flooding and other impacts of climate change. In addition, native species need to migrate to track their climate niches and the chances of successful migration will be increased if species have access to habitat throughout the landscape. Thus there is a strong rationale to do more conservation and restoration for both ecosystem and urban adaptation to climate change. Despite this alignment, planning efforts in the urban and ecosystem sectors are rarely done synergistically. As a result it is not clear how well plans will achieve biodiversity along with other ecosystem services goals. In this talk, I will discuss how urban adaptation planning can better align with ecosystem adaptation planning by drawing on research exploring sustainability plans and urban ecology in US cities, including work conducted in the San Francisco Bay Area by the Terrestrial Biodiversity and Climate Change Collaborative (TBC3). This research shows that there are considerable opportunities for linking agendas across sectors in ways that could yield multiple benefits. There are however both social and ecological challenges. In some cases difficult choices will need to be made about which values and services are most important, or where in the landscape different values should be prioritized.

  15. Response of the endangered tropical dry forests to climate change and the role of Mexican Protected Areas for their conservation.

    PubMed

    Prieto-Torres, David A; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Santiago-Alarcon, Diego; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R

    2016-01-01

    Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate-change models suggested (in comparison with the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0-10.0% and 3.0-9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long-term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggest that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem. PMID

  16. Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Porfirio, Luciana L.; Harris, Rebecca M. B.; Lefroy, Edward C.; Hugh, Sonia; Gould, Susan F.; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Mackey, Brendan

    2014-01-01

    Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models. PMID:25420020

  17. Conserving the Stage: Climate Change and the Geophysical Underpinnings of Species Diversity

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, Mark G.; Ferree, Charles E.

    2010-01-01

    Conservationists have proposed methods for adapting to climate change that assume species distributions are primarily explained by climate variables. The key idea is to use the understanding of species-climate relationships to map corridors and to identify regions of faunal stability or high species turnover. An alternative approach is to adopt an evolutionary timescale and ask ultimately what factors control total diversity, so that over the long run the major drivers of total species richness can be protected. Within a single climatic region, the temperate area encompassing all of the Northeastern U.S. and Maritime Canada, we hypothesized that geologic factors may take precedence over climate in explaining diversity patterns. If geophysical diversity does drive regional diversity, then conserving geophysical settings may offer an approach to conservation that protects diversity under both current and future climates. Here we tested how well geology predicts the species diversity of 14 US states and three Canadian provinces, using a comprehensive new spatial dataset. Results of linear regressions of species diversity on all possible combinations of 23 geophysical and climatic variables indicated that four geophysical factors; the number of geological classes, latitude, elevation range and the amount of calcareous bedrock, predicted species diversity with certainty (adj. R2 = 0.94). To confirm the species-geology relationships we ran an independent test using 18,700 location points for 885 rare species and found that 40% of the species were restricted to a single geology. Moreover, each geology class supported 5–95 endemic species and chi-square tests confirmed that calcareous bedrock and extreme elevations had significantly more rare species than expected by chance (P<0.0001), strongly corroborating the regression model. Our results suggest that protecting geophysical settings will conserve the stage for current and future biodiversity and may be a robust

  18. Targeted conservation to safeguard a biodiversity hotspot from climate and land-cover change.

    PubMed

    Struebig, Matthew J; Wilting, Andreas; Gaveau, David L A; Meijaard, Erik; Smith, Robert J; Fischer, Manuela; Metcalfe, Kristian; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie

    2015-02-01

    Responses of biodiversity to changes in both land cover and climate are recognized [1] but still poorly understood [2]. This poses significant challenges for spatial planning as species could shift, contract, expand, or maintain their range inside or outside protected areas [2-4]. We examine this problem in Borneo, a global biodiversity hotspot [5], using spatial prioritization analyses that maximize species conservation under multiple environmental-change forecasts. Climate projections indicate that 11%-36% of Bornean mammal species will lose ≥ 30% of their habitat by 2080, and suitable ecological conditions will shift upslope for 23%-46%. Deforestation exacerbates this process, increasing the proportion of species facing comparable habitat loss to 30%-49%, a 2-fold increase on historical trends. Accommodating these distributional changes will require conserving land outside existing protected areas, but this may be less than anticipated from models incorporating deforestation alone because some species will colonize high-elevation reserves. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of upland reserves and that relatively small additions (16,000-28,000 km(2)) to the current conservation estate could provide substantial benefits to biodiversity facing changes to land cover and climate. On Borneo, much of this land is under forestry jurisdiction, warranting targeted conservation partnerships to safeguard biodiversity in an era of global change. PMID:25619764

  19. Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

    PubMed

    Dilt, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

    2016-06-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa. PMID:27509760

  20. Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

  1. Climate Change Denial Books and Conservative Think Tanks: Exploring the Connection.

    PubMed

    Dunlap, Riley E; Jacques, Peter J

    2013-06-01

    The conservative movement and especially its think tanks play a critical role in denying the reality and significance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), especially by manufacturing uncertainty over climate science. Books denying AGW are a crucial means of attacking climate science and scientists, and we examine the links between conservative think tanks (CTTs) and 108 climate change denial books published through 2010. We find a strong link, albeit noticeably weaker for the growing number of self-published denial books. We also examine the national origins of the books and the academic backgrounds of their authors or editors, finding that with the help of American CTTs climate change denial has spread to several other nations and that an increasing portion of denial books are produced by individuals with no scientific training. It appears that at least 90% of denial books do not undergo peer review, allowing authors or editors to recycle scientifically unfounded claims that are then amplified by the conservative movement, media, and political elites. PMID:24098056

  2. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change.

    PubMed

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2016-06-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate Max-Ent models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered. PMID:27509755

  3. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  4. Adaptive introgression as a resource for management and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Jill A; Miller, Joshua M

    2016-02-01

    Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species' and populations' ability to respond to climate change through adaptation. Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement of genetic material from the genome of 1 species into the genome of another through repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing species' ability to respond to a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow may mediate extinction risk or consequences of limited adaptive potential that result from standing genetic variation and mutation alone, enabling a quicker demographic recovery in response to changing environments. Despite the near dismissal of the potential benefits of hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined a number of case studies across different taxa that suggest gene flow between sympatric or parapatric sister species or within species that exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation may represent an underutilized management option to conserve evolutionary potential in a changing environment. This will be particularly true where advanced-generation hybrids exhibit adaptive traits outside the parental phenotypic range, a phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented in this essay are meant to provoke discussion regarding how we maintain evolutionary potential, the conservation value of natural hybrid zones, and consideration of their important role in adaptation to climate. PMID:26096581

  5. The Richter Scale of Reduction: decoupling management and climatic related drivers of water conservation behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rippy, Megan; Hemati, Azadeh; Grant, Stanley

    2016-04-01

    As global populations grow, cities in drought prone regions of the world such as South East Australia are faced with escalating water scarcity and water security challenges. The management approaches geared towards addressing these challenges are diverse, and background climatic variability further complicates the story. Here we use Melbourne, a city of 4.3 million people in South East Australia that recently faced and overcame a > 10 year "Millennium" drought, as a test case for evaluating the relative importance of various management-related and climatic factors in driving reductions in municipal water consumption (>50% in 12 years). Our analysis suggests that Melbourne's declining municipal consumption cannot be explained by potable substitution alone, as reductions in municipal consumption were not matched by increased use of alternative sources (e.g., urban rain or recycled water). Savings from non revenue water (NRW) reduction (through leak reduction and improved metering) also fell short of the total savings achieved during the drought. In the final analysis, conservation behavior emerged as the dominant driver of municipal water savings, forming a so-called "Richter Scale of Reduction" with conservation saving ~10 fold more water than NRW reduction, which in turn saved ~10 fold more water than alternative water sources. We also used wavelet analysis to illustrate that conservation behavior responds to climate variability at a variety of frequencies (annual-decadal and longer) which correspond to perturbations that impact water system vulnerability and sustainability. Interestingly the shared power of climatic and conservation responses declined as the drought progressed, perhaps reflecting the adoption of more consistent conservation behavior as the drought became increasingly severe.

  6. Relationships between the coach-created motivational climate and athlete engagement in youth sport.

    PubMed

    Curran, Thomas; Hill, Andrew P; Hall, Howard K; Jowett, Gareth E

    2015-04-01

    Youth sport is a source of well-being for adolescents, yet experiences vary and attrition can be high. We sought to better understand the coach behaviors that foster positive experiences in youth sport by examining relationships between the motivational climate and athlete engagement (viz., confidence, dedication, enthusiasm, and vigor). We reasoned that a mastery climate (emphasis on effort and learning) would correspond with higher engagement, whereas a performance climate (emphasis on ability and outcome) was expected to correspond with lower engagement. Two-hundred sixty adolescent soccer players completed measures of engagement and perceived coach motivational climate. All dimensions of engagement were positively predicted by a mastery climate. Furthermore, cognitive aspects of engagement were positively predicted by a performance climate. Canonical correlation analysis indicated that a composite of engagement was positively associated with a mastery climate. Results suggest that a mastery climate offers a means of promoting higher levels of overall engagement. PMID:25996109

  7. Women of Color Teaching Students of Color: Creating an Effective Classroom Climate through Caring, Challenging, and Consulting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saavedra, Dora E.; Saavedra, Marisa L.

    2007-01-01

    Being a Hispanic female faculty member in South Texas can be a challenge. This chapter discusses three pedagogical tools (caring, challenging, and consulting) that we use to create a classroom climate that enhances Hispanic students' success by engaging and motivating them to succeed in one of the poorest areas of the country.

  8. From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

  9. Evaluation of ecosystem services for good balance between climate change prevention and biodiversity conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, A.; Adachi, M.; Yamagata, Y.; Suzuki, R.; Saigusa, N.; Sekine, H.

    2011-12-01

    For appropriate decision making in ecosystem management for global warming prevention and biodiversity conservation, a reliable and practical method to evaluate ecosystem services is necessary. For this purpose, we are conducting a project focusing on the evaluation of ecosystem services with a financial support from the Ministry of Environment, Japan, during the period from 2011 to 2013. The project is titled "Development of a method for evaluation of ecosystem services aiming at trade-off mitigation between climate change prevention and biodiversity conservation" (Environmental Research Fund, No. F-1101) and jointly conducted through collaboration among: the National Institute for Environmental Studies, the Japan-Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, and Mitsubishi Research Institute. The objectives of the project include: (1) integration of observational data from field sites and satellites related to ecosystem functions, (2) development of a practical evaluation method of ecosystem services, and (3) contribution to mitigate conflicts between environmental mitigation options such as climate change prevention and biodiversity conservation. In this project, we have a couple of candidate sites in Asian region to conduct field studies including in situ observation of forest biomass, leaf area index, canopy structure, in conjunction with corresponding satellite observations. These data on functional traits will be related with important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and climate regulation, water supply, and genetic resource stemming from biodiversity.

  10. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is

  11. Adaptation Strategies of Soil and Water Conservation in Taiwan for Extreme Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wen-Cheng; Lin, Cheng-Yu; Hsieh, Ting-Ju

    2016-04-01

    Due to global climate change, the impact caused by extreme climate has become more and more compelling. In Taiwan, the total rainfall stays in the same level, but it brings along changes to rain types. The rainfall with high recurrence interval happens frequently, leading to soil loss of slope-land, and it may further result in flooding and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked at the second highest around the world. Moreover, third-fourth of Taiwan is slope-land, so the soil and water conservation is rather important. This study is based on the international trend analysis approach to review the related researches worldwide and 264 research projects in Taiwan. It indicates that under the pressure of extreme climate and social economic changes, it has higher possibility of slope-land to face the impacts from extreme rainfall events, and meanwhile, the carrying capacity of slope-land is decreasing. The experts' brainstorming meetings were held three times, and it concluded the current problems of soil and water conservation and the goal in 2025 for sustainable resources. Also, the 20-year weather data set was adopted to screen out 3 key watersheds with the potential of flooding (Puzih River Watershed), droughts (Xindian River Watershed), and sediment hazards (Chishan River Watershed) according to the moisture index, and further, to propose countermeasures in order to realize the goal in 2025, which is "regarding to climate and socioeconomic changes, it is based on multiple use to manage watershed resources for avoiding disasters and sustaining soil and water conservation." Keyword: Extreme climate, International trend analysis, Brainstorming, Key watershed

  12. Practicing Conservation Agriculture to mitigate and adapt to Climate Change in Jordan.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khresat, Saeb

    2016-04-01

    Climate change scenarios indicate that Jordan and the Middle East could suffer from reduced agricultural productivity and water availability among other negative impacts. Based on the projection models for the area, average temperature in Jordan is projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.6 °C by 2050. Projections for precipitation trends are projected to decrease by 16% by the year 2050. Evaporation is likely to increase due to higher temperatures. This is likely to increase the incidence of drought potential since precipitation is projected to decrease. The dominant form of agriculture system in Jordan is based on intensive tillage. This form of tillage has resulted in large losses of organic soil carbon, weaker soil structure, and cause compaction. It has negative effects on soil aeration, root development and water infiltration among other factors. There is a need to transform farming practices to conservation agriculture to sequester carbon so that climate change mitigation becomes an inherent property of future farming systems. Conservation Agriculture, a system avoiding or minimizing soil disturbance, combined with soil cover and crop diversification, is considered to be a sustainable production system that can also sequester carbon unlike tillage agriculture. Conservation agriculture promotes minimal disturbance of the soil by tillage (zero tillage), balanced application of chemical inputs and careful management of residues and wastes. This study was conducted to develop a clear understanding of the impacts and benefits of the two most common types of agriculture, traditional tillage agriculture and conservation agriculture with respect to their effects on land productivity and on soil carbon pools. The study results indicated that conservation agriculture contributed to the reduction of the farming systems' greenhouse gas emissions and enhance its role as carbon sinks. Also, it was found that by shifting to conservation agriculture labor cost needed for

  13. Systematic Conservation Planning in the Face of Climate Change: Bet-Hedging on the Columbia Plateau

    PubMed Central

    Schloss, Carrie A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Larson, Eric R.; Papendick, Hilary L.; Case, Michael J.; Evans, Daniel M.; DeLap, Jack H.; Langdon, Jesse G. R.; Hall, Sonia A.; McRae, Brad H.

    2011-01-01

    Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts. PMID:22174897

  14. Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

    2014-06-01

    There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. PMID:24677422

  15. Creating Learning Experiences that Promote Informal Science Education: Designing Conservation-Focused Interactive Zoo Exhibits through Action Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalenda, Peter

    Research on exhibit design over the past twenty years has started to identify many different methods to increase the learning that occurs in informal education environments. This study utilized relevant research on exhibit design to create and study the effectiveness of a mobile interactive exhibit at the Seneca Park Zoo that promotes socialization, engagement in science, and conservation-related practices among guests. This study will serve as one component of a major redesign project at the Seneca Park Zoo for their Rocky Coasts exhibit. This action research study targeted the following question, "How can interactive exhibits be designed to promote socialization, engagement in science, and real-world conservation-related practices (RCPs) among zoo guests?" Specific research questions included: 1. In what ways did guests engage with the exhibit? 2. In what ways were guests impacted by the exhibit? a) What evidence exists, if any, of guests learning science content from the exhibit? b) What evidence exists, if any, of guests being emotionally affected by the exhibit? c) What evidence exists, if any, of guests changing their RCPs after visiting the exhibit? Data were collected through zoo guest surveys completed by zoo guests comparing multiple exhibits, interviews with guests before and after they used the prototype exhibit, observations and audio recordings of guests using the prototype exhibit, and follow-up phone interviews with guests who volunteered to participate. Data were analyzed collaboratively with members of the zoo's exhibit Redesign Team using grounded theory qualitative data analysis techniques to find patterns and trends among data. Initial findings from data analysis were used to develop shifts in the exhibit in order to increase visitor engagement and learning. This process continued for two full action research spirals, which resulted in three iterations of the prototype exhibit. The overall findings of this study highlight the ways in which

  16. Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

    2011-12-01

    Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little

  17. Historical determinants of past and current biodiversity patterns and their implications for conservation under future climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villarreal, M. L.; Norman, L. M.; Wallace, C.; Boykin, K.

    2011-12-01

    Data describing landscape history, particularly the response of landscape patterns to past climate and land uses, can improve results from models that predict patterns of species distributions. We assessed the influence of past climate, past and current land use, and topography on the potential spatial and temporal distributions of terrestrial vertebrates in a semi-arid watershed using multitemporal satellite imagery, geospatial land ownership data, and long-term climate and vegetation monitoring data. We mapped decadal vegetation and land cover (1979, 1989, 1999, and 2009) using satellite and field data, and created species richness maps for each date using SWReGAP species-habitat models. Our results show that vegetation types with the highest mammal and avian species richness, primarily desert grasslands (mammal) and riparian vegetation (avian) types, experienced the largest change in land cover area and related species richness numbers over time. Change patterns were neither temporally directional nor spatially uniform over the landscape. Riparian cover registered a 19% decline and grassland a 15% increase in cover from 1979-2009, but cover change was temporally variable and was influenced by climate patterns; for example, the development and decline of riparian cover coincided with a period of above average precipitation during the 1980s and 1990s followed by a period of extended drought. Spatial patterns were determined partially by changes in both public and private land management: expanding urban development (and related groundwater use) contributed to the decline of riparian cover on private lands, while range restoration and conservation efforts on private and public lands contributed to the stabilization and increase in grassland and some riparian vegetation. Finally, topographical features were correlated with change patterns; much of the mammal and avian habitat declines occurred in the arid, lower elevation portions of the watershed while increases

  18. Climate change and air pollution jointly creating nightmare for tourism industry.

    PubMed

    Sajjad, Faiza; Noreen, Umara; Zaman, Khalid

    2014-11-01

    The objective of the study is to examine the long-run and causal relationship between climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions, hydrofluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride), air pollution (i.e., methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, and carbon dioxide emissions), and tourism development indicators (i.e., international tourism receipts, international tourism expenditures, natural resource depletion, and net forest depletion) in the World's largest regions. The aggregate data is used for robust analysis in the South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and the Pacific regions, over a period of 1975-2012. The results show that climatic factors and air pollution have a negative impact on tourism indicators in the form of deforestation and natural resource depletion. The impact is evident, as we have seen the systematic eroding of tourism industry, due to severe changes in climate and increasing strain of air pollution. There are several channels of cause-effect relationship between the climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World's region. The study confirms the unidirectional, bidirectional, and causality independent relationship between climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World. It is conclusive that tourism industry is facing all time bigger challenges of reduce investment, less resources, and minor importance from the government agencies because of the two broad challenges, i.e., climate change and air pollution, putting them in a dismal state. PMID:24938808

  19. First Steps Toward a Quality of Climate Finance Scorecard (QUODA-CF): Creating a Comparative Index to Assess International Climate Finance Contributions

    SciTech Connect

    Sierra, Katherine; Roberts, Timmons; de Nevers, Michele; Langley, Claire; Smith, Cory

    2013-06-15

    Are climate finance contributor countries, multilateral aid agencies and specialized funds using widely accepted best practices in foreign assistance? How is it possible to measure and compare international climate finance contributions when there are as yet no established metrics or agreed definitions of the quality of climate finance? As a subjective metric, quality can mean different things to different stakeholders, while of donor countries, recipients and institutional actors may place quality across a broad spectrum of objectives. This subjectivity makes the assessment of the quality of climate finance contributions a useful and necessary exercise, but one that has many challenges. This work seeks to enhance the development of common definitions and metrics of the quality of climate finance, to understand what we can about those areas where climate finance information is available and shine a light on the areas where there is a severe dearth of data. Allowing for comparisons of the use of best practices across funding institutions in the climate sector could begin a process of benchmarking performance, fostering learning across institutions and driving improvements when incorporated in internal evaluation protocols of those institutions. In the medium term, this kind of benchmarking and transparency could support fundraising in contributor countries and help build trust with recipient countries. As a feasibility study, this paper attempts to outline the importance of assessing international climate finance contributions while describing the difficulties in arriving at universally agreed measurements and indicators for assessment. In many cases, data are neither readily available nor complete, and there is no consensus on what should be included. A number of indicators are proposed in this study as a starting point with which to analyze voluntary contributions, but in some cases their methodologies are not complete, and further research is required for a

  20. Conservation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Audubon Society, New York, NY.

    This set of teaching aids consists of seven Audubon Nature Bulletins, providing the teacher and student with informational reading on various topics in conservation. The bulletins have these titles: Plants as Makers of Soil, Water Pollution Control, The Ground Water Table, Conservation--To Keep This Earth Habitable, Our Threatened Air Supply,…

  1. Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern

    PubMed Central

    Virkkala, Raimo; Pöyry, Juha; Heikkinen, Risto K; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Valkama, Jari

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, posing increasing pressures on species to adapt in situ or shift their ranges. A protected area network is one of the main instruments to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change. Importantly, protected area networks might be expected to enhance the resilience of regional populations of species of conservation concern, resulting in slower species loss in landscapes with a significant amount of protected habitat compared to unprotected landscapes. Based on national bird atlases compiled in 1974–1989 and 2006–2010, this study examines the recent range shifts in 90 forest, mire, marshland, and Arctic mountain heath bird species of conservation concern in Finland, as well as the changes in their species richness in protected versus unprotected areas. The trends emerging from the atlas data comparisons were also related to the earlier study dealing with predictions of distributional changes for these species for the time slice of 2051–2080, developed using bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). Our results suggest that the observed changes in bird distributions are in the same direction as the BEM-based predictions, resulting in a decrease in species richness of mire and Arctic mountain heath species and an increase in marshland species. The patterns of changes in species richness between the two time slices are in general parallel in protected and unprotected areas. However, importantly, protected areas maintained a higher level of species richness than unprotected areas. This finding provides support for the significance and resilience provision of protected area networks in preserving species of conservation concern under climate change. PMID:25247057

  2. Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mills, Morena; Nicol, Samuel; Wells, Jessie A.; Lahoz-Monfort, José J.; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J. M.; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; McDonald Madden, Eve

    2014-01-01

    Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders.

  3. Waterfowl conservation in the US Prairie Pothole Region: confronting the complexities of climate change.

    PubMed

    Niemuth, Neal D; Fleming, Kathleen K; Reynolds, Ronald E

    2014-01-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974-2013) and July (1974-2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide future

  4. Waterfowl Conservation in the US Prairie Pothole Region: Confronting the Complexities of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Niemuth, Neal D.; Fleming, Kathleen K.; Reynolds, Ronald E.

    2014-01-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974–2013) and July (1974–2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year’s pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year’s pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide

  5. Creating Extension Programs for Change: Forest Landowners and Climate Change Communication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krantz, Shelby; Monroe, Martha; Bartels, Wendy-Lin

    2013-01-01

    The Cooperative Extension Service in the United States can play an important role in educating forest landowners to improve forest resilience in the face of climatic uncertainty. Two focus groups in Florida informed the development of a program that was conducted in Leon County; presurveys and postsurveys and observation provided evaluation data.…

  6. Communication in Computer Science Classrooms: Understanding Defensive Climates as a Means of Creating Supportive Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garvin-Doxas, Kathy; Barker, Lecia J.

    2004-01-01

    All learning environments are characterized by numerous communication and interaction practices, which lend themselves to an overall characterization of the climate as defensive or supportive. A case study of public communication and interaction in a large, research-intensive university's first year computer science courses illustrates a learning…

  7. Best Practices: Creating an LGBT-Inclusive School Climate. A Teaching Tolerance Guide for School Leaders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Southern Poverty Law Center (NJ1), 2013

    2013-01-01

    Schools are places of learning and also miniature societies. The climate of a school has a direct impact on both how well students learn and how well they interact with their peers. Teachers and administrators work hard to make their classrooms welcoming places where each student feels included. But despite these efforts, students who are--or who…

  8. Creating and Assessing Campus Climates That Support Personal and Social Responsibility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reason, Robert D.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, Robert D. Reason defines personal and social responsibility as a five-component outcome of college, presents a case for thinking about educating for personal and social responsibility through the lens of campus climate that eschews the hunt for a single intervention, and encourages the marshaling of multiple resources in multiple…

  9. Model-based conservation planning of the genetic diversity of Phellodendron amurense Rupr due to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Jizhong; Wang, Chunjing; Yu, Jinghua; Nie, Siming; Han, Shijie; Zu, Yuangang; Chen, Changmei; Yuan, Shusheng; Wang, Qinggui

    2014-01-01

    Climate change affects both habitat suitability and the genetic diversity of wild plants. Therefore, predicting and establishing the most effective and coherent conservation areas is essential for the conservation of genetic diversity in response to climate change. This is because genetic variance is a product not only of habitat suitability in conservation areas but also of efficient protection and management. Phellodendron amurense Rupr. is a tree species (family Rutaceae) that is endangered due to excessive and illegal harvesting for use in Chinese medicine. Here, we test a general computational method for the prediction of priority conservation areas (PCAs) by measuring the genetic diversity of P. amurense across the entirety of northeast China using a single strand repeat analysis of twenty microsatellite markers. Using computational modeling, we evaluated the geographical distribution of the species, both now and in different future climate change scenarios. Different populations were analyzed according to genetic diversity, and PCAs were identified using a spatial conservation prioritization framework. These conservation areas were optimized to account for the geographical distribution of P. amurense both now and in the future, to effectively promote gene flow, and to have a long period of validity. In situ and ex situ conservation, strategies for vulnerable populations were proposed. Three populations with low genetic diversity are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change, making conservation of genetic diversity challenging due to decreasing habitat suitability. Habitat suitability was important for the assessment of genetic variability in existing nature reserves, which were found to be much smaller than the proposed PCAs. Finally, a simple set of conservation measures was established through modeling. This combined molecular and computational ecology approach provides a framework for planning the protection of species endangered by climate

  10. Dealing with Drought: Decoupling Climatic and Management-Related Drivers of Water Conservation Behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemati, A.; Rippy, M.; Grant, S. B.

    2015-12-01

    As global populations grow, cities in drought prone regions of the world such as California and South East Australia are faced with escalating water scarcity and water security challenges. The management approaches geared towards addressing these challenges are diverse. Given the myriad of possible approaches and the tendency to apply them in combination, successful management actions can be difficult to identify. Background climactic variability further complicates the story, making transfer of management lessons from one drought stressed region to another difficult. Here we use Melbourne, a city of 4.3 million people in South East Australia that recently faced and overcame a > 10 year "Millennium" drought, as a test case for evaluating the relative importance of various management-related and climactic factors in driving reductions in municipal water consumption (~60% in 12 years). Our analysis suggests that Melbourne's declining municipal consumption cannot be explained by potable substitution alone, as reductions in municipal consumption were not matched by increased use of alternative sources (e.g., urban rain or recycled water). Thus, water conservation behavior (not source switching) may be responsible for the majority of demand reduction in Melbourne. Interestingly, while voluntary or mandatory water restrictions appear to have substantially altered the rate of change of consumption near the end of Melbourne's Millennium drought (e.g., forcing a period of intense conservation), overall conservation behavior precedes these restrictions. This suggests that other rapidly implemented (and hither too unquantified) management approaches such as advertising or newspapers may have driven water conservation behavior early in the drought. Climatic factors, particularly precipitation may also have influenced conservation behavior; changes in precipitation were significantly positively correlated with changes in water consumption at a lag of 18 months. Similar

  11. Creating dialogue: a workshop on "Uncertainty in Decision Making in a Changing Climate"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewen, Tracy; Addor, Nans; Johnson, Leigh; Coltekin, Arzu; Derungs, Curdin; Muccione, Veruska

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty is present in all fields of climate research, spanning from projections of future climate change, to assessing regional impacts and vulnerabilities, to adaptation policy and decision-making. In addition to uncertainties, managers and planners in many sectors are often confronted with large amounts of information from climate change research whose complex and interdisciplinary nature make it challenging to incorporate into the decision-making process. An overarching issue in tackling this problem is the lack of institutionalized dialogue between climate researchers, decision-makers and user groups. Forums that facilitate such dialogue would allow climate researchers to actively engage with end-users and researchers in different disciplines to better characterize uncertainties and ultimately understand which ones are critically considered and incorporated into decisions made. We propose that the introduction of students to these challenges at an early stage of their education and career is a first step towards improving future dialogue between climate researchers, decision-makers and user groups. To this end, we organized a workshop at the University of Zurich, Switzerland, entitled "Uncertainty in Decision Making in a Changing Climate". It brought together 50 participants, including Bachelor, Master and PhD students and academic staff, and nine selected speakers from academia, industry, government, and philanthropy. Speakers introduced participants to topics ranging from uncertainties in climate model scenarios to managing uncertainties in development and aid agencies. The workshop consisted of experts' presentations, a panel discussion and student group work on case studies. Pedagogical goals included i) providing participants with an overview of the current research on uncertainty and on how uncertainty is dealt with by decision-makers, ii) fostering exchange between practitioners, students, and scientists from different backgrounds, iii) exposing

  12. Creating a New Model for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation for Critical Infrastructure: The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NYC Panel on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W. D.; Freed, A. M.

    2008-12-01

    The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, launched in August 2008, aims to secure the city's critical infrastructure against rising seas, higher temperatures and fluctuating water supplies projected to result from climate change. The Climate Change Adaptation Task Force is part of PlaNYC, the city's long- term sustainability plan, and is composed of over 30 city and state agencies, public authorities and companies that operate the region's roads, bridges, tunnels, mass transit, and water, sewer, energy and telecommunications systems - all with critical infrastructure identified as vulnerable. It is one of the most comprehensive adaptation efforts yet launched by an urban region. To guide the effort, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has formed the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), modeled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Experts on the panel include climatologists, sea-level rise specialists, adaptation experts, and engineers, as well as representatives from the insurance and legal sectors. The NPCC is developing planning tools for use by the Task Force members that provide information about climate risks, adaptation and risk assessment, prioritization frameworks, and climate protection levels. The advisory panel is supplying climate change projections, helping to identify at- risk infrastructure, and assisting the Task Force in developing adaptation strategies and guidelines for design of new structures. The NPCC will also publish an assessment report in 2009 that will serve as the foundation for climate change adaptation in the New York City region, similar to the IPCC reports. Issues that the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NPCC are addressing include decision- making under climate change uncertainty, effective ways for expert knowledge to be incorporated into public actions, and strategies for maintaining consistent and effective attention to long-term climate change even as municipal governments cycle

  13. How to Go Green: Creating a Conservation Culture in a Public High School through Education, Modeling, and Communication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schelly, Chelsea; Cross, Jennifer E.; Franzen, William; Hall, Pete; Reeve, Stu

    2012-01-01

    This case study examines how energy conservation efforts in one public high school contributed to both sustainability education and the adoption of sustainable behavior within educational and organizational practice. Individual role models, school facilities, school governance and school culture together support both conservation and environmental…

  14. Unveiling the Conservation Biogeography of a Data-Deficient Endangered Bird Species under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Junhua; Liu, Yang

    2014-01-01

    It remains a challenge to identify the geographical patterns and underlying environmental associations of species with unique ecological niches and distinct behaviors. This in turn hinders our understanding of the ecology as well as effective conservation management of threatened species. The white-eared night heron (Gorsachius magnificus) is a non-migratory nocturnal bird species that has a patchy distribution in the mountainous forests of East Asia. It is currently categorized as “Endangered” on the IUCN Red List, primarily due to its restricted range and fragmented habitat. To improve our knowledge of the biogeography and conservation of this species, we modeled the geographical pattern of its suitable habitat and evaluated the potential impacts of climate change using ecological niche modeling with a maximum entropy approach implemented in Maxent. Our results indicated that the amount of suitable habitat in all of East Asia was about 130 000 km2, which can be spatially subdivided into several mountain ranges in southern and southwestern China and northern Vietnam. The extent of suitable habitat range may shrink by more than 35% under a predicted changing climate when assuming the most pessimistic condition of dispersal, while some more suitable habitat would be available if the heron could disperse unrestrainedly. The significant future changes in habitat suitability suggested for Gorsachius magnificus urge caution in any downgrading of Red List status that may be considered. Our results also discern potentially suitable areas for future survey efforts on new populations. Overall, this study demonstrates that ecological niche modeling offers an important tool for evaluating the habitat suitability and potential impacts of climate change on an enigmatic and endangered species based on limited presence data. PMID:24404169

  15. Unveiling the conservation biogeography of a data-deficient endangered bird species under climate change.

    PubMed

    Hu, Junhua; Liu, Yang

    2014-01-01

    It remains a challenge to identify the geographical patterns and underlying environmental associations of species with unique ecological niches and distinct behaviors. This in turn hinders our understanding of the ecology as well as effective conservation management of threatened species. The white-eared night heron (Gorsachius magnificus) is a non-migratory nocturnal bird species that has a patchy distribution in the mountainous forests of East Asia. It is currently categorized as "Endangered" on the IUCN Red List, primarily due to its restricted range and fragmented habitat. To improve our knowledge of the biogeography and conservation of this species, we modeled the geographical pattern of its suitable habitat and evaluated the potential impacts of climate change using ecological niche modeling with a maximum entropy approach implemented in Maxent. Our results indicated that the amount of suitable habitat in all of East Asia was about 130 000 km(2), which can be spatially subdivided into several mountain ranges in southern and southwestern China and northern Vietnam. The extent of suitable habitat range may shrink by more than 35% under a predicted changing climate when assuming the most pessimistic condition of dispersal, while some more suitable habitat would be available if the heron could disperse unrestrainedly. The significant future changes in habitat suitability suggested for Gorsachius magnificus urge caution in any downgrading of Red List status that may be considered. Our results also discern potentially suitable areas for future survey efforts on new populations. Overall, this study demonstrates that ecological niche modeling offers an important tool for evaluating the habitat suitability and potential impacts of climate change on an enigmatic and endangered species based on limited presence data. PMID:24404169

  16. Patterns and perceptions of climate change in a biodiversity conservation hotspot.

    PubMed

    Hartter, Joel; Stampone, Mary D; Ryan, Sadie J; Kirner, Karen; Chapman, Colin A; Goldman, Abraham

    2012-01-01

    Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management. PMID:22384244

  17. Patterns and Perceptions of Climate Change in a Biodiversity Conservation Hotspot

    PubMed Central

    Hartter, Joel; Stampone, Mary D.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Kirner, Karen; Chapman, Colin A.; Goldman, Abraham

    2012-01-01

    Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management. PMID:22384244

  18. Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

    PubMed

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka; Kouki, Jari; Strandman, Harri; Mönkkönen, Mikko

    2015-02-01

    Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the

  19. Placing lochs in their landscapes: linking landscape ecology, ecohydrology and conservation interest in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muir, M. C.; Spray, C. J.; Rowan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    Scotland is a country with outstanding freshwater systems providing multiple social, economic and cultural functions as well as ecological services of international importance. Scotland's lakes (locally termed lochs) occupy approximately 3% of the country's land mass and contain more than 90% of Great Britain's total freshwater resource. With over 25,000 lochs (surface area greater than 0.1 hectares) standing freshwaters are an iconic part of Scotland's landscape and they come in a myriad of forms and sizes contributing outstanding geodiversity as well as habitats of international importance for numerous species of conservation interest. There is undoubtedly a need to protect the conservation interests of designated sites in the face of changing loch and catchment pressures - which include diffuse pollutants, morphological modification, recreation and invasive species. Climate change presents a new set of challenges with potential impacts across the entire standing water resource base and predicting how these systems might respond to these changes greatly amplifies uncertainties implicit in their environmental management. Global climate change is predicted to be a major cause of change across all ecosystems and there are particular concerns about impacts on freshwater systems due to the coupling of impacts to both hydrology and ecology. Climate change is likely to affect the hydrological cycle in a number of ways, most significantly through changing temperature and precipitation patterns, intensities and extremes. These changes, coupled with reduced snow and ice cover, frequency and duration, will lead to changes in soil moisture conditions and subsequently runoff. This is turn will impact on river flow, loch water levels, epilimnic temperatures, nutrient availability and, subsequently, the ecological structure and function of the entire standing water system. For some species these habitat changes will push them to the very limits of their natural tolerances and a

  20. Creating climate quality global datasets for studying trends, variability and extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willett, K.; Thorne, P.

    2010-09-01

    Historical instrumental records are essential for climate monitoring and climate research, yet the data are riddled with issues of quality and inhomogeneity. This leaves uncertainty surrounding any conclusions drawn from the data. It is essential that data are quality controlled and homogenised. Furthermore, this must be done in an objective, reproducible and globally consistent manner that enables quantification of uncertainty. The Met Office Hadley Centre is pursuing the quality control and homogenisation of 6000+ stations sub-daily synoptic near-surface temperature data. The data focus mainly on temperature and dewpoint temperature but also include sea level pressure, wind speed and cloud cover. Quality control efforts address many known issues with observational data in an automated manner including outliers and spikes (individual and clusters), repeated values, wet-bulb reservoir drying/freezing and frequently occurring values to name a few. Homogenisation is still work in progress but makes use of ‘pseudo-data' to validate breakpoint detection and adjustment methods. An bootstrap approach will be used on application of homogenisation covering a wide spread of decision parameters with which to estimate uncertainties. This paper details an automated quality control system and presents efforts to date to homogenise these data.

  1. Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conroy, M.J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Stodola, K.W.; Cooper, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Exploring the active role of water vapor in creating more extreme SSTs and climate variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Hoell, A.

    2015-12-01

    While it is well-known that water vapor will play an important role in amplifying the direct warming effects of well-mixed greenhouse gasses like CO2 and methane, to date relatively little attention has been placed on the spatial variability of water vapor warming effects: increased diabatic forcing from precipitation and long wave radiation. Here, using 1850-2012 atmospheric simulations from the GEOS5 model, 1948-2015 NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1 fields, 1979-2015 MERRA atmospheric reanalyses, and 1979-2015 NOAA OLR observations, we explore two potential thermodynamic contributions associated with water vapor. One contribution comes from the diabatic heating of the atmosphere by longwave radiation emissions. Another contribution comes from diabatic heating of the atmosphere by precipitation. This diabatic heating warms the local atmosphere, and over the tropical oceans, typically warms areas that are already warm. This increases local temperature gradients and potentially increases available potential energy both in the vertical (i.e. CAPE) and in the horizontal (i.e. APE). Using MERRA's detailed thermodynamic budget terms, we examine several recent climate extremes, like the 2011 La Niña and the 2015 El Niño, suggesting that exceptional increases in water vapor radiative warming and precipitation may have helped to make both events more extreme: exceptionally high levels of water vapor in the western Pacific may have helped increase the warm west Pacific - cool Niño 4 SST gradient during the 2011 La Niña. Conversely, in 2015, exceptionally high levels of water vapor in the eastern Pacific may have helped increase the warm Niño 3.4 - cool western Pacific El Niño SST gradient. These water vapor influences can be radiative (warming warm SSTs), as well as dynamic, as enhanced precipitation releases more latent heat. Thus 'anthropogenic' water vapor may move around the climate system, helping to exacerbate warming in warm areas of the atmosphere. We examine this

  3. Global invasion of Lantana camara: has the climatic niche been conserved across continents?

    PubMed

    Goncalves, Estefany; Herrera, Ileana; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O; Lampo, Margarita; Velásquez, Grisel; Sharma, Gyan P; García-Rangel, Shaenandhoa

    2014-01-01

    Lantana camara, a native plant from tropical America, is considered one of the most harmful invasive species worldwide. Several studies have identified potentially invasible areas under scenarios of global change, on the assumption that niche is conserved during the invasion process. Recent studies, however, suggest that many invasive plants do not conserve their niches. Using Principal Components Analyses (PCA), we tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for L. camara by comparing its native niche in South America with its expressed niche in Africa, Australia and India. Using MaxEnt, the estimated niche for the native region was projected onto each invaded region to generate potential distributions there. Our results demonstrate that while L. camara occupied subsets of its original native niche in Africa and Australia, in India its niche shifted significantly. There, 34% of the occurrences were detected in warmer habitats nonexistent in its native range. The estimated niche for India was also projected onto Africa and Australia to identify other vulnerable areas predicted from the observed niche shift detected in India. As a result, new potentially invasible areas were identified in central Africa and southern Australia. Our findings do not support the hypothesis of niche conservatism for the invasion of L. camara. The mechanisms that allow this species to expand its niche need to be investigated in order to improve our capacity to predict long-term geographic changes in the face of global climatic changes. PMID:25343481

  4. Predicted climate-driven bird distribution changes and forecasted conservation conflicts in a neotropical savanna.

    PubMed

    Marini, Miguel Angelo; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Lopes, Leonardo Esteves; Jiguet, Frédéric

    2009-12-01

    Climate-change scenarios project significant temperature changes for most of South America. We studied the potential impacts of predicted climate-driven change on the distribution and conservation of 26 broad-range birds from South America Cerrado biome (a savanna that also encompass tracts of grasslands and forests). We used 12 temperature or precipitation-related bioclimatic variables, nine niche modeling techniques, three general circulation models, and two climate scenarios (for 2030, 2065, 2099) for each species to model distribution ranges. To reach a consensus scenario, we used an ensemble-forecasting approach to obtain an average distribution for each species at each time interval. We estimated the range extent and shift of each species. Changes in range size varied across species and according to habitat dependency; future predicted range extent was negatively correlated with current predicted range extent in all scenarios. Evolution of range size under full or null dispersal scenarios varied among species from a 5% increase to an 80% decrease. The mean expected range shifts under null and full-dispersal scenarios were 175 and 200 km, respectively (range 15-399 km), and the shift was usually toward southeastern Brazil. We predicted larger range contractions and longer range shifts for forest- and grassland-dependent species than for savanna-dependent birds. A negative correlation between current range extent and predicted range loss revealed that geographically restricted species may face stronger threat and become even rarer. The predicted southeasterly direction of range changes is cause for concern because ranges are predicted to shift to the most developed and populated region of Brazil. Also, southeastern Brazil is the least likely region to contain significant dispersal corridors, to allow expansion of Cerrado vegetation types, or to accommodate creation of new reserves. PMID:19500118

  5. Reducing Energy Consumption and Creating a Conservation Culture in Organizations: A Case Study of One Public School District

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schelly, Chelsea; Cross, Jennifer E.; Franzen, William S.; Hall, Pete; Reeve, Stu

    2011-01-01

    How can existing schools significantly reduce their energy use? With energy costs rising and school budgets shrinking, energy use is a substantial cost that can be reduced through conservation efforts. Using a case study methodology, the authors compare two public high schools from the same school district, one that has achieved moderate energy…

  6. Assessing vulnerable and expanding vegetation stands and species in the San Francisco Bay Area for conservation management under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morueta-Holme, N.; Heller, N. E.; McLaughlin, B.; Weiss, S. B.; Ackerly, D.

    2015-12-01

    The distribution of suitable climatic areas for species and vegetation types is expected to shift due to ongoing climate change. While the pace at which current distributions will shift is hard to quantify, predictions of where climatically suitable areas will be in the future can allow us to map 1) areas currently occupied by a species or vegetation type unlikely to persist through the end of this century (vulnerable stands), 2) areas likely to do better in the future and serve as nuclei for population expansion (expanding stands), and 3) areas likely to act as climate refugia (persisting stands). We quantified the vulnerability of 27 individual plant species and 27 vegetation types in the San Francisco Bay Area as well as the conservation importance, vulnerability, and resilience of selected management sites for climate change resilient conservation. To this end, we developed California-wide models of species and vegetation distributions using climate data from the 2014 California Basin Characterization Model at a 270 m resolution, projected to 18 different end-of century climate change scenarios. Combining these distribution models with high resolution maps of current vegetation, we were able to map projected vulnerable, expanding, and persisting stands within the Bay Area. We show that vegetation and species are expected to shift considerably within the study region over the next decades; although we also identify refugia potentially able to offset some of the negative impacts of climate change. We discuss the implications for managers that wish to incorporate climate change in conservation decisions, in particular related to choosing species for restoration, identifying areas to collect seeds for restoration, and preparing for expected major vegetation changes. Our evaluation of individual management sites highlights the need for stronger coordination of efforts across sites to prioritize monitoring and protection of species whose ranges are contracting

  7. Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

    2016-02-01

    Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

  8. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

    PubMed Central

    Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

    2015-01-01

    Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union. PMID:26681982

  9. Conservation implications of native and introduced ungulates in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Allred, Brady W; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Hovick, Torre J; Dwayne Elmore, R; Engle, David M; Joern, Anthony

    2013-06-01

    In many grasslands, grazing by large native or introduced ungulates drives ecosystem structure and function. The behavior of these animals is important as it directs the spatial effects of grazing. To the degree that temperature drives spatial components of foraging, understanding how changes in climate alter grazing behavior will provide guidance for the conservation of ecosystem goods and services. We determined the behavioral response of native bison (Bison bison) and introduced cattle (Bos taurus) to temperature in tallgrass prairie within the Great Plains, USA. We described the thermal environment by measuring operative temperature (the temperature perceived by animals) through space and time. Site selection preferences of ungulates were quantified using resource selection functions. Woody vegetation in tallgrass prairie provided a cooler thermal environment for large ungulates, decreasing operative temperature up to 16 °C in the heat of the summer. Cattle began to seek thermal refugia at lower air temperatures (24 °C) by selecting areas closer to woody vegetation and water sources. Bison, however, sought refugia within wooded areas at higher air temperatures (36 °C), which occurred much less frequently. Both species became more attracted to riparian areas as air temperature increased, with preferences increasing tenfold during the hottest periods. As predicted warming occurs across the Great Plains and other grasslands, grazing behavior and subsequent grazing effects will be altered. Riparian areas, particularly those with both water and woody vegetation, will receive greater utilization and selection by large ungulates. The use of native grazers for conservation or livestock production may mitigate negative effects caused by increased temperatures. PMID:23505266

  10. Design of ecoregional monitoring in conservation areas of high-latitude ecosystems under contemporary climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beever, Erik A.; Woodward, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    Land ownership in Alaska includes a mosaic of federally managed units. Within its agency’s context, each unit has its own management strategy, authority, and resources of conservation concern, many of which are migratory animals. Though some units are geographically isolated, many are nevertheless linked by paths of abiotic and biotic flows, such as rivers, air masses, flyways, and terrestrial and aquatic migration routes. Furthermore, individual land units exist within the context of a larger landscape pattern of shifting conditions, requiring managers to understand at larger spatial scales the status and trends in the synchrony and spatial concurrence of species and associated suitable habitats. Results of these changes will determine the ability of Alaska lands to continue to: provide habitat for local and migratory species; absorb species whose ranges are shifting northward; and experience mitigation or exacerbation of climate change through positive and negative atmospheric feedbacks. We discuss the geographic and statutory contexts that influence development of ecological monitoring; argue for the inclusion of significant amounts of broad-scale monitoring; discuss the importance of defining clear programmatic and monitoring objectives; and draw from lessons learned from existing long-term, broad-scale monitoring programs to apply to the specific contexts relevant to high-latitude protected areas such as those in Alaska. Such areas are distinguished by their: marked seasonality; relatively large magnitudes of contemporary change in climatic parameters; and relative inaccessibility due to broad spatial extent, very low (or zero) road density, and steep and glaciated areas. For ecological monitoring to effectively support management decisions in high-latitude areas such as Alaska, a monitoring program ideally would be structured to address the actual spatial and temporal scales of relevant processes, rather than the artificial boundaries of individual land

  11. Shift of grey seal subspecies boundaries in response to climate, culling and conservation.

    PubMed

    Fietz, Katharina; Galatius, Anders; Teilmann, Jonas; Dietz, Rune; Frie, Anne Kristine; Klimova, Anastasia; Palsbøll, Per J; Jensen, Lasse F; Graves, Jeff A; Hoffman, Joseph I; Olsen, Morten Tange

    2016-09-01

    Identifying the processes that drive changes in the abundance and distribution of natural populations is a central theme in ecology and evolution. Many species of marine mammals have experienced dramatic changes in abundance and distribution due to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts. However, thanks to conservation efforts, some of these species have shown remarkable population recovery and are now recolonizing their former ranges. Here, we use zooarchaeological, demographic and genetic data to examine processes of colonization, local extinction and recolonization of the two northern European grey seal subspecies inhabiting the Baltic Sea and North Sea. The zooarchaeological and genetic data suggest that the two subspecies diverged shortly after the formation of the Baltic Sea approximately 4200 years bp, probably through a gradual shift to different breeding habitats and phenologies. By comparing genetic data from 19th century pre-extinction material with that from seals currently recolonizing their past range, we observed a marked spatiotemporal shift in subspecies boundaries, with increasing encroachment of North Sea seals on areas previously occupied by the Baltic Sea subspecies. Further, both demographic and genetic data indicate that the two subspecies have begun to overlap geographically and are hybridizing in a narrow contact zone. Our findings provide new insights into the processes of colonization, extinction and recolonization and have important implications for the management of grey seals across northern Europe. PMID:27616353

  12. Water management, purification, and conservation in arid climates. Volume 1: Water management

    SciTech Connect

    Goosen, M.F.A.; Shayya, W.H.

    1999-07-01

    Arid regions are already feeling the severe restraining effects of potable water shortages. In coming years, humid and sub-humid regions of the world will also have to face many of these same problems. In the future, serious conflicts may arise not because of a lack of oil, but due to water shortages. Are there solutions to these problems? Aside from increasing public awareness about the importance of water, society needs to take a three pronged approach: water needs to be effectively managed, it needs to be economically purified, and it needs to be conserved. Only by doing these three things in unison can they hope to alleviate the water problems faced by arid regions of the world. This book presents information valuable to seeking, finding and using current technologies to help solve these problems now. Volume 1 examines water management problems in detail, along with water problems and water resources in arid climates, and includes chapters that cover aspects of water management. Water purification technology is another key issue. The economics of this technology is becoming more critical in arid areas due to increasing urbanization and industrialization.

  13. Putting the brakes on reproduction: Implications for conservation, global climate change and biomedicine.

    PubMed

    Wingfield, John C; Perfito, Nicole; Calisi, Rebecca; Bentley, George; Ubuka, T; Mukai, M; O'Brien, Sara; Tsutsui, K

    2016-02-01

    Seasonal breeding is widespread in vertebrates and involves sequential development of the gonads, onset of breeding activities (e.g. cycling in females) and then termination resulting in regression of the reproductive system. Whereas males generally show complete spermatogenesis prior to and after onset of breeding, females of many vertebrate species show only partial ovarian development and may delay onset of cycling (e.g. estrous), yolk deposition or germinal vesicle breakdown until conditions conducive for ovulation and onset of breeding are favorable. Regulation of this "brake" on the onset of breeding remains relatively unknown, but could have profound implications for conservation efforts and for "mismatches" of breeding in relation to global climate change. Using avian models it is proposed that a brain peptide, gonadotropin-inhibitory hormone (GnIH), may be the brake to prevent onset of breeding in females. Evidence to date suggests that although GnIH may be involved in the regulation of gonadal development and regression, it plays more regulatory roles in the process of final ovarian development leading to ovulation, transitions from sexual to parental behavior and suppression of reproductive function by environmental stress. Accumulating experimental evidence strongly suggests that GnIH inhibits actions of gonadotropin-releasing hormones on behavior (central effects), gonadotropin secretion (central and hypophysiotropic effects), and has direct actions in the gonad to inhibit steroidogenesis. Thus, actual onset of breeding activities leading to ovulation may involve environmental cues releasing an inhibition (brake) on the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonad axis. PMID:26474923

  14. Moving into Protected Areas? Setting Conservation Priorities for Romanian Reptiles and Amphibians at Risk from Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Popescu, Viorel D.; Rozylowicz, Laurenţiu; Cogălniceanu, Dan; Niculae, Iulian Mihăiţă; Cucu, Adina Livia

    2013-01-01

    Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas

  15. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

    PubMed Central

    Scriber, Jon Mark

    2013-01-01

    Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience) may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations) need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae) with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes) and recent (3-decade) climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations) of species composition, genotypes, and genomes

  16. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes.

    PubMed

    Scriber, Jon Mark

    2013-01-01

    Comprising 50%-75% of the world's fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience) may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including "invasive species" in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. "Invasive genes" (into new species and populations) need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. "Genetic rescue" via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae) with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes) and recent (3-decade) climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced "reshuffling" (recombinations) of species composition, genotypes, and genomes may become

  17. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amy K. Snover; Nathan J. Mantua; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander; Michelle M. McClure; Janet Nye

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  18. Science questions for implementing climate refugia for salmon as a conservation strategy

    EPA Science Inventory

    The recognition and protection of climate refugia has been proposed as a potential adaptation strategy that may be useful for protecting the biotic integrity of watersheds under a changing climate. Climate refugia are areas that are buffered from climate change effects relative t...

  19. Adaptation in Practice: How Managers of Nature Conservation Areas in Eastern England are Responding to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macgregor, Nicholas A.; van Dijk, Nikki

    2014-10-01

    Although good general principles for climate change adaptation in conservation have been developed, it is proving a challenge to translate them into more detailed recommendations for action. To improve our understanding of what adaptation might involve in practice, we investigated how the managers of conservation areas in eastern England are considering climate change. We used a written questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to collect information from managers of a range of different conservation areas. Topics investigated include the impacts of climate change perceived to be of the greatest importance; adaptation goals being set; management actions being carried out to achieve these goals; sources of information used; and perceived barriers to taking action. We identified major themes and issues that were apparent across the sites studied. Specifically, we found ways in which adaptation had been informed by past experience; different strategies relating to whether to accept or resist change; approaches for coping with more variable conditions; ways of taking a large-scale approach and managing sites as networks; some practical examples of aspects of adaptive management; and examples of the role that other sectors can play in both constraining and increasing a conservation area's capacity to adapt. We discuss the relevance of these findings to the growing discussion in conservation about identifying adaptation pathways for different conservation areas and a potential progression from a focus on resilience and incremental change to embracing "transformation." Though adaptation will be place-specific, we believe these findings provide useful lessons for future action in both England and other countries.

  20. Adaptation in practice: how managers of nature conservation areas in eastern england are responding to climate change.

    PubMed

    Macgregor, Nicholas A; van Dijk, Nikki

    2014-10-01

    Although good general principles for climate change adaptation in conservation have been developed, it is proving a challenge to translate them into more detailed recommendations for action. To improve our understanding of what adaptation might involve in practice, we investigated how the managers of conservation areas in eastern England are considering climate change. We used a written questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to collect information from managers of a range of different conservation areas. Topics investigated include the impacts of climate change perceived to be of the greatest importance; adaptation goals being set; management actions being carried out to achieve these goals; sources of information used; and perceived barriers to taking action. We identified major themes and issues that were apparent across the sites studied. Specifically, we found ways in which adaptation had been informed by past experience; different strategies relating to whether to accept or resist change; approaches for coping with more variable conditions; ways of taking a large-scale approach and managing sites as networks; some practical examples of aspects of adaptive management; and examples of the role that other sectors can play in both constraining and increasing a conservation area's capacity to adapt. We discuss the relevance of these findings to the growing discussion in conservation about identifying adaptation pathways for different conservation areas and a potential progression from a focus on resilience and incremental change to embracing "transformation." Though adaptation will be place-specific, we believe these findings provide useful lessons for future action in both England and other countries. PMID:24647625

  1. Create Great School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vail, Kathleen

    2005-01-01

    A teacher's attitude--whether good or bad--trickles down to the students. According to Tom Carroll, who serves in the capacity of president of the National Commission on Teaching and America's Future, there is no teacher shortage but a horrendous turnover and attrition problem. Teachers who are leaving are constantly being replaced. The conditions…

  2. Sustainable economic development: Strategies for creating jobs while conserving natural resources and protecting the environment. Research report

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas, M.G.

    1996-12-01

    Sustainable economic development is a departure from traditional economic development. It requires a change from linear, short-term to cyclical, long-term thinking--whether this thinking is applied to understanding industrial processes, the nature of products and waste, energy, or new business development. This publication provides practical assistance to the economic development community by contributing to a new generation of economic development strategies: (1) Increase profitability and save jobs in business, industry, and government by preventing pollution and reducing waste. (2) Develop new jobs in recycling-based manufacturing, demanufacturing, and remanufacturing industries and ecoindustrial parks. (3) Create jobs and new buinsesses through energy-efficiency investments in the public and private sectors. (4) Expand renewable energy technologies and manufacturing. (5) Capture markets in green businesses and environmental technologies. The publication includes annotated bibliographies and appendices with additional resources or technical discussions for each strategy.

  3. Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change.

    PubMed

    Davis, Jenny; Pavlova, Alexandra; Thompson, Ross; Sunnucks, Paul

    2013-07-01

    Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refugees based on our review of the attributes of aquatic habitats and freshwater taxa (fishes and aquatic invertebrates) in arid Australia. We also identify methods of recognizing likely future refugia and approaches to assessing the vulnerability of arid-adapted freshwater biota to a warming and drying climate. Evolutionary refugia in arid areas are characterized as permanent, groundwater-dependent habitats (subterranean aquifers and springs) supporting vicariant relicts and short-range endemics. Ecological refugees can vary across space and time, depending on the dispersal abilities of aquatic taxa and the geographical proximity and hydrological connectivity of aquatic habitats. The most important are the perennial waterbodies (both groundwater and surface water fed) that support obligate aquatic organisms. These species will persist where suitable habitats are available and dispersal pathways are maintained. For very mobile species (invertebrates with an aerial dispersal phase) evolutionary refugia may also act as ecological refugees. Evolutionary refugia are likely future refugia because their water source (groundwater) is decoupled from local precipitation. However, their biota is extremely vulnerable to changes in local conditions because population extinction risks cannot be abated by the dispersal of individuals from other sites. Conservation planning must incorporate a high level of protection for aquifers that support refugial sites. Ecological refuges are vulnerable to changes in regional climate because they have

  4. Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Davis, Jenny; Pavlova, Alexandra; Thompson, Ross; Sunnucks, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges based on our review of the attributes of aquatic habitats and freshwater taxa (fishes and aquatic invertebrates) in arid Australia. We also identify methods of recognizing likely future refugia and approaches to assessing the vulnerability of arid-adapted freshwater biota to a warming and drying climate. Evolutionary refugia in arid areas are characterized as permanent, groundwater-dependent habitats (subterranean aquifers and springs) supporting vicariant relicts and short-range endemics. Ecological refuges can vary across space and time, depending on the dispersal abilities of aquatic taxa and the geographical proximity and hydrological connectivity of aquatic habitats. The most important are the perennial waterbodies (both groundwater and surface water fed) that support obligate aquatic organisms. These species will persist where suitable habitats are available and dispersal pathways are maintained. For very mobile species (invertebrates with an aerial dispersal phase) evolutionary refugia may also act as ecological refuges. Evolutionary refugia are likely future refugia because their water source (groundwater) is decoupled from local precipitation. However, their biota is extremely vulnerable to changes in local conditions because population extinction risks cannot be abated by the dispersal of individuals from other sites. Conservation planning must incorporate a high level of protection for aquifers that support refugial sites. Ecological refuges are vulnerable to changes in regional climate because they have little

  5. Conservation Priorities for Prunus africana Defined with the Aid of Spatial Analysis of Genetic Data and Climatic Variables

    PubMed Central

    Vinceti, Barbara; Loo, Judy; Gaisberger, Hannes; van Zonneveld, Maarten J.; Schueler, Silvio; Konrad, Heino; Kadu, Caroline A. C.; Geburek, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Conservation priorities for Prunus africana, a tree species found across Afromontane regions, which is of great commercial interest internationally and of local value for rural communities, were defined with the aid of spatial analyses applied to a set of georeferenced molecular marker data (chloroplast and nuclear microsatellites) from 32 populations in 9 African countries. Two approaches for the selection of priority populations for conservation were used, differing in the way they optimize representation of intra-specific diversity of P. africana across a minimum number of populations. The first method (S1) was aimed at maximizing genetic diversity of the conservation units and their distinctiveness with regard to climatic conditions, the second method (S2) at optimizing representativeness of the genetic diversity found throughout the species’ range. Populations in East African countries (especially Kenya and Tanzania) were found to be of great conservation value, as suggested by previous findings. These populations are complemented by those in Madagascar and Cameroon. The combination of the two methods for prioritization led to the identification of a set of 6 priority populations. The potential distribution of P. africana was then modeled based on a dataset of 1,500 georeferenced observations. This enabled an assessment of whether the priority populations identified are exposed to threats from agricultural expansion and climate change, and whether they are located within the boundaries of protected areas. The range of the species has been affected by past climate change and the modeled distribution of P. africana indicates that the species is likely to be negatively affected in future, with an expected decrease in distribution by 2050. Based on these insights, further research at the regional and national scale is recommended, in order to strengthen P. africana conservation efforts. PMID:23544118

  6. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C.

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  7. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    PubMed

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. PMID:24299081

  8. Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fortini, Lucas; Vorsino, Adam E.; Amidon, Fred A.; Paxton, Eben; Jacobi, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

  9. Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need 21st Century Conservation Options

    PubMed Central

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Vorsino, Adam E.; Amidon, Fred A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Jacobi, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria’s life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations. PMID:26509270

  10. Geographic coincidence of richness, mass, conservation value, and response to climate of U.S. land birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grundel, Ralph; Frohnapple, Krystal; Zaya, David N.; Glowacki, Gary A.; Weiskerger, Chelsea J.; Patterson, Tamatha A.; Pavlovic, Noel B.

    2014-01-01

    Distributional patterns across the United States of five avian community breeding-season characteristics—community biomass, richness, constituent species' vulnerability to extirpation, percentage of constituent species' global abundance present in the community (conservation index, CI), and the community's position along the ecological gradient underlying species composition (principal curve ordination score, PC)—were described, their covariation was analyzed, and projected effects of climate change on the characteristics and their covariation were modeled. Higher values of biomass, richness, and CI were generally preferred from a conservation perspective. However, higher values of these characteristics often did not coincide geographically; thus regions of the United States would differ in their value for conservation depending on which characteristic was chosen for setting conservation priorities. For instance, correlation patterns between characteristics differed among Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Among the five characteristics, community richness and the ecological gradient underlying community composition (PC) had the highest correlations with longitude, with richness declining from east to west across the contiguous United States. The ecological gradient underlying composition exhibited a demarcation near the 100th meridian, separating the contiguous United States grossly into two similar-sized avian ecological provinces. The combined score (CS), a measure of species' threat of decline or extirpation, exhibited the strongest latitudinal pattern, declining from south to north. Over ∼75% of the lower United States, projected changes in June temperature and precipitation to year 2080 were associated with decreased averaged values of richness, biomass, and CI, implying decreased conservation value for birds. The two ecological provinces demarcated near the 100th meridian diverged from each other, with projected changes in June temperatures and

  11. Neotropical vegetation responses to Younger Dryas climates as analogs for future climate change scenarios and lessons for conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rull, V.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Montoya, E.

    2015-05-01

    The Younger Dryas (YD) climatic reversal (12.86-11.65 cal ky BP), especially the warming initiated at ∼12.6 cal ky BP, and the associated vegetation changes have been proposed as past analogs to forecast the potential vegetation responses to future global warming. In this paper, we applied this model to highland and midland Neotropical localities. We used pollen analysis of lake sediments to record vegetation responses to YD climatic changes, which are reconstructed from independent paleoclimatic proxies such as the Mg/Ca ratio on foraminiferal tests and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) for paleotemperature, and grayscale density and Titanium content for paleoprecipitation. Paleoclimatic reconstructions at both highlands and midlands showed a clear YD signal with a conspicuous warming extending into the early Holocene. A small percentage of taxa resulted to be sensitive to these YD climate changes. Response lags were negligible at the resolution of the study. However, changes in the sensitive taxa were relevant enough to determine changes in biodiversity and taxonomic composition. Highland vegetation experienced mainly intra-community reorganizations, whereas midland vegetation underwent major changes leading to community substitutions. This was explained in terms of threshold-crossing non-linear responses in which the coupling of climatic and other forcings (fire) was proposed as the main driving mechanism. Paleoecology provides meaningful insights on the responses of highland and midland Neotropical vegetation to the YD climatic reversal. Biotic responses at both individual (species) and collective (assemblage) levels showed patterns and processes of vegetation change useful to understand its ecological dynamics, as well as the mechanisms and external drivers involved. The use of paleoecological methods to document the biotic responses to the YD climate shifts can be useful to help forecasting the potential consequences of future global warming. Due to its quasi

  12. Climate Change, Northern Birds of Conservation Concern and Matching the Hotspots of Habitat Suitability with the Reserve Network

    PubMed Central

    Virkkala, Raimo; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko

    2013-01-01

    National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051–2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species’ probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares (“hotspots”) in the four bird species groups in the period 1971–2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051–2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered. PMID:23700420

  13. Identifying and Addressing Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Under Climate Change in Data-Scarce Regions: the Role of Conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shortridge, J.; Guikema, S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have dramatic impacts on built infrastructure, particularly in the water resources sector where infrastructure tends to have long lifespans and performance is highly sensitive to climate conditions. However, adapting to water resources infrastructure to climate change is challenging due to the considerable uncertainty surrounding projections of future hydrologic conditions. This has prompted the development of a number of approaches aimed at supporting planning under "deep-uncertainty" which cannot be represented probabilistically. One such method is robust decision making (RDM), which uses simulation models to assess how systems perform over a wide range of future scenarios and identify vulnerable scenarios where system performance is unacceptable. With the Lake Tana basin in Ethiopia as a case study, we use an RDM analysis to assess the vulnerability of planned irrigation infrastructure to climate change and environmental uncertainties related to data limitations. We find that planned infrastructure is vulnerable not only to climate change, but also to poorly characterized environmental conditions today. This suggests areas for research that could provide important insights into the long-term sustainability and effectiveness of the planned projects. Additionally, we evaluate the degree to which methods such as irrigation efficiency and upstream land conservation can improve the long-term performance of the proposed infrastructure. In doing so, we demonstrate how robust decision frameworks can provide decision support in data-scarce regions where more complex modeling and analysis may be impractical.

  14. Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range-edge populations.

    PubMed

    Rehm, Evan M; Olivas, Paulo; Stroud, James; Feeley, Kenneth J

    2015-10-01

    Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range-edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range-edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range-edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range-core populations. We also highlight how large-scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest-cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range-edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range-edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change. PMID:26664681

  15. Insular Ecosystems of the Southeastern United States- A Regional Synthesis to Support Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Wolfe, William J.

    2016-01-01

    In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few

  16. Effects of climate variations and soil conservation on sedimentation of a west-central Oklahoma reservoir

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    During the second half of the 20th century, extensive soil conservation practices were implemented on the Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed in West-Central Oklahoma. Sediment and flow observations were made on major tributaries in 1943-1950 (pre-conservation time period), and again in 2004-2008 (post-co...

  17. Conservation Practices to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change. Poster Demonstration

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change and its interaction with other environmental problems such as desertification, deforestation, and depletion of water resources used for irrigation, will increase the challenges for maintaining food security during the next four decades and beyond. Climate change and extreme weather ev...

  18. Tri-Agency Coordination: Challenges and Successes in Creating a Community of Practice among Climate Change Education Principal Investigators funded by NASA, NOAA, and NSF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoedinger, S. E.; McDougall, C.; Karsten, J. L.; Campbell, D.; Pippin, M. R.; Chambers, L. H.

    2013-12-01

    The effort needed for comprehensive climate change education is far greater than any one institution, education sector, or even federal agency can handle. Recognizing a need to synergistically combine efforts, NSF, NASA, and NOAA have created a collaborative community of their climate change education principal investigators (PIs) through tri-agency coordination. The goals of this tri-agency collaboration are to leverage existing resources, minimize duplicate efforts, and facilitate communication among this emergent community of scientists and educators. NASA, NOAA, and NSF work together to strategically coordinate and support a portfolio of projects focused on climate literacy and education in formal and informal learning environments. The activities of the tri-agency collaboration, including annual meetings for PIs, a catalog of the agencies collective investments in climate change education and the ongoing development of a nascent common evaluation framework, have created a strong national network for effectively engaging diverse audiences with the principles of climate literacy (see Eos Vol. 92, No. 24, 14 June 2011). Last year, after 3 years of active collaboration, similar programs underway at other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies: the EPA, National Institutes for Environmental Health Sciences, and USDA, were engaged in the collaboration. And, in an attempt to understand the interests of the private sector in this arena, conversations have begun with private philanthropic organizations. This year, as many of the funded projects are maturing, the PI meeting will have a focus on bringing this community together to create a science-theme based tangible outcome that can move the field of climate change education forward. Additional outcomes from this PI meeting will be presented as well as the challenges that were encountered in bringing together institutions with diverse missions, and approaches developed to ensure all parties feel they

  19. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  20. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  1. Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fordham, D. A.; Akçakaya, H. R.; Brook, B. W.; Rodríguez, A.; Alves, P. C.; Civantos, E.; Triviño, M.; Watts, M. J.; Araújo, M. B.

    2013-10-01

    The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century and is now on the brink of extinction. Climate change could further threaten the survival of the species, but its forecast effects are being neglected in recovery plans. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk under climate change have so far mostly relied on inferences from correlative projections of species' habitat shifts. Here we use ecological niche models coupled to metapopulation simulations with source-sink dynamics to directly investigate the combined effects of climate change, prey availability and management intervention on the persistence of the Iberian lynx. Our approach is unique in that it explicitly models dynamic bi-trophic species interactions in a climate change setting. We show that anticipated climate change will rapidly and severely decrease lynx abundance and probably lead to its extinction in the wild within 50 years, even with strong global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In stark contrast, we also show that a carefully planned reintroduction programme, accounting for the effects of climate change, prey abundance and habitat connectivity, could avert extinction of the lynx this century. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, why considering prey availability, climate change and their interaction in models is important when designing policies to prevent future biodiversity loss.

  2. Integrating Climate Change Into Restoration Practices in the Great Lakes Region: Creating a "Climate-smart" Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koslow, M.; Murray, M. W.

    2010-12-01

    Stakeholders from various Great Lakes sectors such as industry, state and city, federal, non-profit and academia gathered in September of 2010 in Buffalo, New York to provide ideas and input on how to integrate climate change into actions of the United States federal agencies. The mechanism by which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) employ climate change adaptation actions in the Great Lakes region is the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI). In 2010 475 million was allocated through the GLRI to NOAA and EPA for on-the-ground ecological restoration projects throughout the region and 300 million is expected for 2011. With the goal to make these restoration projects "climate-smart," stakeholders made recommendations that include: application of information from the scientific community, emergency measures to deal with climate change-related surprises, priority steps for dealing with non-climate change related issues that are to be affected by climate change and steps to deal with climate change impacts on the Great Lakes ecosystem that differ from other ecosystems.

  3. Managing water and salinity with desalination, conveyance, conservation, waste-water treatment and reuse to counteract climate variability in Gaza

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenberg, D. E.; Aljuaidi, A. E.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

    2009-12-01

    We include demands for water of different salinity concentrations as input parameters and decision variables in a regional hydro-economic optimization model. This specification includes separate demand functions for saline water. We then use stochastic non-linear programming to jointly identify the benefit maximizing set of infrastructure expansions, operational allocations, and use of different water quality types under climate variability. We present a detailed application for the Gaza Strip. The application considers building desalination and waste-water treatment plants and conveyance pipelines, initiating water conservation and leak reduction programs, plus allocating and transferring water of different qualities among agricultural, industrial, and urban sectors and among districts. Results show how to integrate a mix of supply enhancement, conservation, water quality improvement, and water quality management actions into a portfolio that can economically and efficiently respond to changes and uncertainties in surface and groundwater availability due to climate variability. We also show how to put drawn-down and saline Gaza aquifer water to more sustainable and economical use.

  4. Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

    2010-12-01

    Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically

  5. Severe Loss of Suitable Climatic Conditions for Marsupial Species in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities for Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Loyola, Rafael D.; Lemes, Priscila; Faleiro, Frederico V.; Trindade-Filho, Joaquim; Machado, Ricardo B.

    2012-01-01

    A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages. PMID:23029452

  6. Severe loss of suitable climatic conditions for marsupial species in Brazil: challenges and opportunities for conservation.

    PubMed

    Loyola, Rafael D; Lemes, Priscila; Faleiro, Frederico V; Trindade-Filho, Joaquim; Machado, Ricardo B

    2012-01-01

    A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages. PMID:23029452

  7. Can conservation trump impacts of climate change and extremes on soil erosion in agricultural landscapes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Preservation of top soil is critical for the long term sustainability of agricultural productivity, food security, and biodiversity. However, today’s growing population and increasing demand for food and fiber is stressing the agricultural soil and water resources. Climate change imposes additional ...

  8. Diffusing the Rumors of Inferiority: Creating a Climate of Excellence for Inner-City, College Bound Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Welch, Olga M.; And Others

    In order to examine the relationship between the development of academic self-esteem and a climate of excellence in the classroom this study compared the experiences of a group of high school students in their two inner-city Knoxville (Tennessee) high schools with their corresponding experiences in a University of Tennessee (Knoxville) sponsored…

  9. Eight years of Conservation Agriculture-based cropping systems research in Eastern Africa to conserve soil and water and mitigate effects of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araya, Tesfay; Nyssen, Jan; Govaerts, Bram; Lanckriet, Sil; Baudron, Frédéric; Deckers, Jozef; Cornelis, Wim

    2014-05-01

    improvements in crop yield became significant. Further, modeling of the sediment budgets shows that total soil loss due to sheet and rill erosion in cropland, when CA would be practiced at large scale in a 180 ha catchment, would reduce to 581 t y-1, instead of 1109 t y-1 under the current farmer practice. Using NASA/GISS Model II precipitation projections of IPCC scenario A1FI, CA is estimated to reduce soil loss and runoff and mitigate the effect of increased rainfall due to climate change. For smallholder farmers in semi-arid agro-ecosystems, CA-based systems constitute a field rainwater and soil conservation improvement strategy that enhances crop and economic productivity and reduces siltation of reservoirs, especially under changing climate. The reduction in draught power requirement would enable a reduction in oxen density and crop residue demand for livestock feed, which would encourage smallholder farmers to increase biomass return to the soil. Adoption of CA-based systems in the study area requires further work to improve smallholder farmers' awareness on benefits, to guarantee high standards during implementation and to design appropriate weed management strategies.

  10. Considering Species Tolerance to Climate Change in Conservation Management at Little Cayman's Coral Reefs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camp, E.; Manfrino, C.; Smith, D.; Suggett, D.

    2013-05-01

    There is growing evidence demonstrating that climate change, notably increased frequency and intensity of thermal anomalies combined with ocean acidification, will negatively impact the future growth and viability of many reef systems, including those in the Caribbean. One key question that remains unanswered is whether or not there are management options aimed at protecting coral species from these threats. Little Cayman (Cayman Islands) provides a rare opportunity to investigate global climate stressors without the confounding impact of local anthropogenic stressors. Our research has focused on two climate change issues: Firstly, we have identified species-specific coral bleaching susceptibility (and the influence of regulation upon this susceptibility) to thermal anomalies. Species level of vulnerability to thermal anomalies can decrease when grown under variable temperature. Environmental variability may be key in influencing the susceptibility of corals to stress. The second part of our research has therefore addressed the variability in inorganic carbon chemistry that naturally occurs where certain reef building corals exist. We have identified how the inorganic carbon chemistry varies naturally among habitats and thus how corals within these habitats are potentially adapted to future acidification. Spatial, diurnal, lunar and seasonal variability have been identified as important factors with pCO2 values of up to 700-800 μatm and pH values as low as 7.801 for lagoon habitats, showing that some species are already being exposed to typical pCO2 and pH levels expected for the oceans in ~50 years' time. Using an eco-physiological approach, we are exploring how some reef-building corals are able to acclimate to more variable chemistry compared to others and whether this natural capacity installs increased tolerance to future acidification. These eco-physiological studies provide important information that can be utilized in a management framework. The aim of

  11. Impact of conservation agriculture on catchment runoff and soil loss under changing climate conditions in May Zeg-zeg (Ethiopia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanckriet, Sil; Araya, Tesfay; Cornelis, Wim; Verfaillie, Els; Poesen, Jean; Govaerts, Bram; Bauer, Hans; Deckers, Jozef; Haile, Mitiku; Nyssen, Jan

    2012-12-01

    SummaryThis study evaluates the practice of conservation agriculture (CA) in the May Zeg-zeg catchment (MZZ; 187 ha) in the North Ethiopian Highlands as a soil management technique for reducing soil loss and runoff, and assesses the consequences of future large-scale implementation on soil and hydrology at catchment-level. The study of such practice is important especially under conditions of climate change, since EdGCM (Educational Global Climate Model) simulation predicts by 2040 an increase in precipitation by more than 100 mm yr-1 in the study area. Firstly, field-saturated infiltration rates, together with soil texture and soil organic carbon contents, were measured. The relation with local topography allows to generate a pedotransfer function for field-saturated infiltration rate, and spatial interpolation with Linear Regression Mapping was used to map field-saturated infiltration rates optimally within the catchment. Secondly, on several farmlands, CA was checked against plain tillage (PT) for values of field-saturated infiltration rates, soil organic carbon, runoff and soil loss. Results show no significant differences for infiltration rates but significant differences for runoff and soil loss (as measured in the period 2005-2011). Runoff coefficients were 30.4% for PT and 18.8% for CA; soil losses were 35.4 t ha-1 yr-1 for PT and 14.4 t ha-1 yr-1 for CA. Thirdly, all collected information was used to predict future catchment hydrological response for full-implementation of CA under the predicted wetter climate (simulation with EdGCM). Curve Numbers for farmlands with CA were calculated. An area-weighted Curve Number allows the simulation of the 2011 rainy season runoff, predicting a total runoff depth of 23.5 mm under CA and 27.9 mm under PT. Furthermore, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation management factor P was calibrated for CA. Results also show the important influence of increased surface roughness on water ponding, modeled with a hydrologic

  12. Modeling the impact of conservation agriculture on crop production and soil properties in Mediterranean climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moussadek, Rachid; Mrabet, Rachid; Dahan, Rachid; Laghrour, Malika; Lembiad, Ibtissam; ElMourid, Mohamed

    2015-04-01

    In Morocco, rainfed agriculture is practiced in the majority of agricultural land. However, the intensive land use coupled to the irregular rainfall constitutes a serious threat that affect country's food security. Conservation agriculture (CA) represents a promising alternative to produce more and sustainably. In fact, the direct seeding showed high yield in arid regions of Morocco but its extending to other more humid agro-ecological zones (rainfall > 350mm) remains scarce. In order to promote CA in Morocco, differents trials have been installed in central plateau of Morocco, to compare CA to conventional tillage (CT). The yields of the main practiced crops (wheat, lentil and checkpea) under CA and CT were analyzed and compared in the 3 soils types (Vertisol, Cambisol and Calcisol). Also, we studied the effect of CA on soil organic matter (SOM) and soil losses (SL) in the 3 different sites. The APSIM model was used to model the long term impact of CA compared to CT. The results obtained in this research have shown favorable effects of CA on crop production, SOM and soil erosion. Key words: Conservation agriculture, yield, soil properties, modeling, APSIM, Morocco.

  13. Energy conservation and technological change as factors in climate change - a pulp and paper industry example

    SciTech Connect

    Koleff, A.M.

    1997-12-31

    The Pulp and Paper Industry in the United States is one of this country`s most energy intensive industries with energy generally being the second or third largest direct operating expense in mill budgets. As such, the industry has long had an effective energy conservation program and has recorded impressive reductions in energy use. It is also one of the two most capital intensive industries in the United States and has a long capital investment cycle, which can be estimated by various techniques at between 20 and 30 years. This paper discusses the estimated impact of the industry`s energy conservation achievements on long term emission reductions of greenhouse gases and will show how technological changes within the industry have impacted past emission reductions and the prospects for continued progress through emerging technologies. The importance to the global competitiveness of the industry of implementing technological change designed to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases within the industry`s normal investment cycle will also be reviewed.

  14. Strategies for implementing Climate Smart Agriculture and creating marketable Greenhouse emission reduction credits, for small scale rice farmers in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahuja, R.; Kritee, K.; Rudek, J.; Van Sanh, N.; Thu Ha, T.

    2014-12-01

    Industrial agriculture systems, mostly in developed and some emerging economies, are far different from the small holder farms that dot the landscapes in Asia and Africa. At Environmental Defense Fund, along with our partners from non-governmental, corporate, academic and government sectors and farmers, we have worked actively in India and Vietnam for the last four years to better understand how small scale farmers working on rice paddy (and other upland crops) cultivation can best deal with climate change. Some of the questions we have tried to answer are: What types of implementable best practices, both old and new, on small farm systems lend themselves to improved yields, farm incomes, climate resilience and mitigation? Can these practices be replicated everywhere or is the change more landscape and people driven? What are the institutional, cultural, financial and risk-perception related barriers that prevent scaling up of these practices? How do we innovate and overcome these barriers? The research community needs to work more closely together and leverage multiple scientific, economic and policy disciplines to fully answer these questions. In the case of small farm systems, we find that it helps to follow certain steps if the climate-smart (or low carbon) farming programs are to succeed and the greenhouse credits generated are to be marketed: Demographic data collection and plot demarcation Farmer networks and diaries Rigorous baseline determination via surveys Alternative practice determination via consultation with local universities/experts Measurements on representative plots for 3-4 years (including GHG emissions, yields, inputs, economic and environmental savings) to help calibrate biogeochemical models and/or calculate regional emission factors. Propagation of alternative practices across the landscape via local NGOs/governments Recording of parameters necessary to extrapolate representative plot GHG emission reductions to all farmers in a given

  15. Modeling Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecosystem Processes to Quantify Exposure to Climate Change in Two Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quackenbush, A.

    2015-12-01

    Urban land cover and associated impervious surface area is expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next few decades across substantial portions of the United States. In combination with urban expansion, increases in temperature and changes in precipitation are expected to impact ecosystems through changes in productivity, disturbance and hydrological properties. In this study, we use the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System Biogeochemical Cycle (TOPS-BGC) model to explore the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on hydrologic dynamics (snowmelt, runoff, and evapotranspiration) and vegetation carbon uptake (gross productivity). The model is driven using land cover predictions from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM) to quantify projected changes in impervious surface area, and climate projections from the 30 arc-second NASA Earth Exchange Downscaled Climate Projection (NEX-DCP30) dataset derived from the CMIP5 climate scenarios. We present the modeling approach and an analysis of the ecosystem impacts projected to occur in the US, with an emphasis on protected areas in the Great Northern and Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). Under the ensemble average of the CMIP5 models and land cover change scenarios for both representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, both LCCs are predicted to experience increases in maximum and minimum temperatures as well as annual average precipitation. In the Great Northern LCC, this is projected to lead to increased annual runoff, especially under RCP 8.5. Earlier melt of the winter snow pack and increased evapotranspiration, however, reduces summer streamflow and soil water content, leading to a net reduction in vegetation productivity across much of the Great Northern LCC, with stronger trends occurring under RCP 8.5. Increased runoff is also projected to occur in the Appalachian LCC under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. However, under RCP 4.5, the model

  16. Assessing Foundation Insulation Strategies for the 2012 International Energy Conservation Code in Cold Climate New Home Construction

    SciTech Connect

    VonThoma, E.; Ojczyk, C.; Mosiman, G.

    2013-04-01

    While the International Energy Conservation Code 2012 (IECC 2012) has been adopted at a national level, only two cold climate states have adopted it as their new home energy code. Understanding the resistance to adoption is important in assisting more states accept the code and engage deep energy strategies nationwide. This three-part assessment by the NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership was focused on foundation insulation R-values for cold climates and the design, construction, and performance implications. In Part 1 a literature review and attendance at stakeholder meetings held in Minnesota were used to assess general stakeholder interest and concerns regarding proposed code changes. Part 2 includes drawings of robust foundation insulation systems that were presented at one Minnesota stakeholder meeting to address critical issues and concerns for adopting best practice strategies. In Part 3 a sampling of builders participated in a telephone interview to gain baseline knowledge on insulation systems used to meet the current energy code and how the same builders propose to meet the new proposed code.

  17. Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beever, Erik A.; Woodward, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is

  18. Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime.

    PubMed

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Anderson, Kurt E; Akçakaya, H Resit; Mizerek, Toni; Winchell, Clark; Regan, Helen M

    2014-08-01

    Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional

  19. Water management, purification, and conservation in arid climates. Volume 2: Water purification

    SciTech Connect

    Goosen, M.F.A.; Shayya, W.H.

    1999-10-01

    Arid regions are already feeling the severe restraining effects of potable water shortages. In coming years, humid and sub-humid regions of the world will also have to face many of these same problems. In the future, serious conflicts may arise not because of a lack of oil, but due to water shortages. Are there solutions to these problems? Aside from increasing public awareness about the importance of water, society needs to take a three pronged approach: water needs to be effectively managed, it needs to be economically purified, and it needs to be conserved. Only by doing these three things in unison can they hope to alleviate the water problems faced by arid regions of the world. This book presents information valuable to seeking, finding and using current technologies to help solve these problems now. Volume 2 presents various methods of purifying water, and includes membrane processes and alternative techniques such as solar desalination.

  20. Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

    PubMed

    Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

    2014-01-01

    Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly

  1. Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

    2014-01-01

    Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly

  2. Getting REDD-y: conservation and climate change in Latin America.

    PubMed

    Hall, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    Deforestation in Latin America, especially in the Amazon basin, is a major source of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide that contribute to global warming. Protected areas play a vital role in minimizing forest loss and in supplying key environmental services, including carbon sequestration and rainfall regulation, which mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change amid a rising tide of economic development in the region. The area of protected forest has expanded rapidly since 1980 to cover one-fifth of Latin America and more than two-fifths of Amazonia, a region whose rain forest captures some 40 percent of Latin America's carbon emissions. The reserve sector has traditionally suffered from severe underfunding, but the possibility of new resources being generated through financial compensation for "reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation" (REDD) or "avoided deforestation" under a new Kyoto protocol after 2012 could help strengthen the environmental and social roles of protected areas. However, a number of major implementation and governance challenges will need to be addressed. PMID:22180932

  3. An overview of a free-market approach to climate change and conservation.

    PubMed

    Sandor, Richard L; Bettelheim, Eric C; Swingland, Ian R

    2002-08-15

    This paper describes the convergence of environmental and financial markets, reviews the evolution of market-based environmental programmes as an example of the seven-stage evolutionary process witnessed in a variety of markets and summarizes the emergence of greenhouse-gas-mitigation markets and their potential role in advancing land stewardship, biodiversity and other environmental services. Emissions trading has been developed to meet the demand to reduce pollution while avoiding economic disruption. Consistent with the seven-stage pattern of market evolution, the US programme to reduce the damage from acid rain established a standardized environmental commodity, developed 'evidence of ownership' necessary for financial instruments and provided the infrastructure to efficiently transfer title. The success of the system in reducing pollution at low cost has provided a model for other market-based environmental protection initiatives. The demand for cost-effective action to reduce the threat of climate change has initiated the same evolutionary process for markets to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Many of the land- and forest-management practices that can capture and store atmospheric CO(2) can also provide other environmental benefits, such as biodiversity preservation and enhanced water quality. The presence of a carbon-trading market will introduce a clear financial value for capture and mitigation of CO(2) emissions, thus introducing a new source of funding for land stewardship and forest rehabilitation. The market is now emerging through a variety of 'bottom-up' developments being undertaken through governmental, multilateral, private-sector and non-governmental-organization initiatives. The extension of markets to other emerging environmental issues is now underway, and the linkages between environmental sustainability and capital markets are being more deeply understood. The early evidence indicates that environmental sustainability can be compatible with

  4. Study on the Strategies for the Soil and Water Resource Con-servation of Slopeland in Taiwan in Response to the Extreme Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wen-Cheng

    2014-05-01

    Global climate change results in extreme weather, especially ex-treme precipitation in Taiwan. Though the total amount of precipi-tation remains unchanged, the frequency of rainfall return period increases which affects slopeland and causes sediment disaster. In Taiwan, slopeland occupies about 73% of national territory. Under harsh environmental stress, soil and water conservation of slope-land becomes more important. In response to the trends of global-ization impacts of climate change, long term strategic planning be-comes more necessary. This study reviewed international practices and decision making process about soil and water conservation of slopeland; and conducted the compilation and analysis of water and soil conservation related research projects in Taiwan within the past five years. It is necessary for Taiwan to design timely adaptive strategies about conducting the all-inclusive conservation of na-tional territory, management and business operation of watershed based on the existing regulation with the effects of extreme weather induced by climate change and the changes of social-economic en-vironments. In order to realize the policy vision of "Under the premise of multiple uses, operating the sustainable business and management of the water and soil resources in the watershed through territorial planning in response to the climate and so-cial-economic environment change". This study concluded the future tasks for soil and water con-servation: 1.Design and timely amend strategies for soil and wand water conservation in response to extreme weather. 2. Strengthen the planning and operating of the land management and integrated conservation of the water and soil resources of key watershed. 3. Manage and operate the prevention of debris flow disaster and large-scale landslide. 4. Formulate polices, related regulations and assessment indicators of soil and water conservation. 5. Maintain the biodiversity of the slopeland and reduce the ecological footprint

  5. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Shinneman, Douglas J.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2016-01-01

    temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate. PMID:26985674

  6. Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shinneman, Douglas; Means, Robert E.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2016-01-01

    discrete temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate.

  7. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    PubMed

    Shinneman, Douglas J; Means, Robert E; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

    2016-01-01

    temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate. PMID:26985674

  8. Identifying and Reconciling Risk Across Sectors: The implications of differing views of risk in climate policy, environmental conservation, and the finance sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johns, T.; Henderson, I.; Thoumi, G.

    2014-12-01

    The presence and valuation of risk are commonalities that link the diverse fields of climate change science and policy, environmental conservation, and the financial/investment sector. However, the definition and perception of risks vary widely across these critically linked fields. The "Stranded Asset" concept developed by organizations like the Carbon Tracker Initiative begins to elucidate the links between climate change risk and financial risk. Stranded assets are those that may lose some or all value from climate disruption, changes in demand-side dynamics and/or a more stringent regulatory environment. In order to shift financial flows toward climate change mitigation, emissions-heavy activities that present finance and investment opportunities must also be assessed for their GHG-asset risk attributes in terms of their contribution and vulnerability to climate disruption, as well as other environmental externalities. Until the concept of GHG-asset risk in investment is reconciled with the risks of climate change and environmental conservation, it will not be possible to shift business and financial practices, and unlock private sector resources to address the climate change and conservation challenge. UNEP-FI is researching the application of the concept of Value-atRisk (VaR) to explore links between the financial sector and deforestation/REDD+. The research will test the hypothesis that climate risk is a financial risk, and propose tools to identify and quantify risks associated with unsustainable land-use investments. The tools developed in this research will help investors, managers and governments assess their exposures to the material REDD-related risks in their portfolios. This will inform the development of 'zero net deforestation' investment indices to allow investors to lower the 'deforestation' exposure of 'benchmark' financial indices used by many of the largest money managers. A VaR analysis will be performed, combining the notion of externality

  9. Creating a Climate for Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brennan, Deborah D.

    2015-01-01

    As the first principal of a new Title 1 school in Texas, Deborah Brennan faced the challenge of where to begin improving instruction when a school's population bears no resemblance to the traditional Response to Intervention pyramid (in which 75-85 percent of students flourish with Tier 1 instruction). In contrast, nearly 300 of the 850…

  10. Creating a Climate of Trust

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pfeifer, R. Scott; Polek, Mag

    2007-01-01

    The trouble started when an anonymous e-mail alleged abuse of power at Centennial High School in Howard County, Maryland. Each week, the local paper reported new developments in the investigation. On top of that, the family of a Black student reported that a culture of racism existed at Centennial. At the end of the year, members of the community…

  11. Creating a Healthy Organizational Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolding, James T.; Van Patten, James J.

    1982-01-01

    Four areas of college management responsibility are reviewed: the mission of the organization; administrator/faculty relationship; individual stress; and measuring organizational health. According to Argyris (1980) an organization updates its goals (1) as a consequence of detecting and solving routine problems, and (2) through periodical…

  12. Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].

    PubMed

    Fortini, Lucas B; Vorsino, Adam E; Amidon, Fred A; Paxton, Eben H; Jacobi, James D

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations. PMID:26509270

  13. Quantifying the effectiveness of conservation measures to control the spread of anthropogenic hybridization in stream salmonids: a climate adaptation case study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Boyer, Matthew; Jones, Leslie A.; Steed, Amber; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the effectiveness of management actions to mitigate the effects of changing climatic conditions (i.e., climate adaptation) can be difficult, yet critical for conservation. We used population genetic data from 1984 to 2011 to assess the degree to which ambient climatic conditions and targeted suppression of sources of nonnative Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have influenced the spread of introgressive hybridization in native populations of Westslope Cutthroat Trout O. clarkii lewisi. We found rapid expansion in the spatial distribution and proportion of nonnative genetic admixture in hybridized populations from 1984 to 2004, but minimal change since 2004. The spread of hybridization was negatively correlated with the number of streamflow events in May that exceeded the 75th percentile of historic flows (r = −0.98) and positively correlated with August stream temperatures (r = 0.89). Concomitantly, suppression data showed a 60% decline in catch per unit effort for fish with a high proportion of Rainbow Trout admixture, rendering some uncertainty as to the relative strength of factors controlling the spread of hybridization. Our results illustrate the importance of initiating management actions to mitigate the potential effects of climate change, even where data describing the effectiveness of such actions are initially limited but the risks are severe.

  14. Conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation will be needed for food security in the 21st century

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    It has been documented across the peer-reviewed scientific literature that the challenges that we will have during the XXI century such as climate change, depletion of water resources needed for agricultural production, and higher demand for food and fiber due to a larger global population, will pla...

  15. Convergence of agricultural intensification and climate change in the midwestern United States: Implications for soil and water conservation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Society faces substantial challenges to expand food production while adapting to climatic changes and ensuring ecosystem services are maintained. A convergence of these issues is occurring in the Midwestern United States, i.e., the ‘cornbelt’ region that provides substantial grain supplies to world ...

  16. Effects of land use changes and soil conservation intervention on soil properties as indicators for land degradation under a Mediterranean climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohawesh, Y.; Taimeh, A.; Ziadat, F.

    2015-07-01

    Land degradation resulting from improper land use and management is a major cause of declined productivity in the arid environment. The objectives of this study were to examine the effects of a sequence of land use changes, soil conservation measures, and the time since their implementation on the degradation of selected soil properties. The climate for the selected 105 km2 watershed varies from semi-arid sub-tropical to Mediterranean sub-humid. Land use changes were detected using aerial photographs acquired in 1953, 1978, and 2008. A total of 218 samples were collected from 40 sites in three different rainfall zones to represent different land use changes and variable lengths of time since the construction of stone walls. Analyses of variance were used to test the differences between the sequences of land use changes (interchangeable sequences of forest, orchards, field crops, and range), the time since the implementation of soil conservation measures, rainfall on the thickness of the A-horizon, soil organic carbon content, and texture. Soil organic carbon reacts actively with different combinations and sequences of land use changes. The time since stone walls were constructed showed significant impacts on soil organic carbon and the thickness of the surface horizon. The effects of changing the land use and whether the changes were associated with the construction of stone walls varied according to the annual rainfall. The changes in soil properties could be used as indicators of land degradation and to assess the impact of soil conservation programs. The results help in understanding the effects of land use changes on land degradation processes and carbon sequestration potential and in formulating sound soil conservation plans.

  17. Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  18. Creating Poetry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drury, John

    Encouraging exploration and practice, this book offers hundreds of exercises and numerous tips covering every step involved in creating poetry. Each chapter is a self-contained unit offering an overview of material in the chapter, a definition of terms, and poetry examples from well-known authors designed to supplement the numerous exercises.…

  19. Modelling Coral Reef Futures to Inform Management: Can Reducing Local-Scale Stressors Conserve Reefs under Climate Change?

    PubMed Central

    Gurney, Georgina G.; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Geronimo, Rollan C.; Aliño, Perry M.; Johnson, Craig R.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef

  20. Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

    PubMed

    Gurney, Georgina G; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Geronimo, Rollan C; Aliño, Perry M; Johnson, Craig R

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef

  1. Adaptation: Conservation for any budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawler, Joshua J.

    2011-10-01

    Deciding where and how to allocate scarce funding to conserve plants and animals in a changing and uncertain climate is a thorny issue. Numerical modelling identifies the most effective mix of conservation measures based on the level of expenditure available.

  2. Creating Community

    PubMed Central

    Budin, Wendy C.

    2009-01-01

    In this column, the editor of The Journal of Perinatal Education describes ways that Lamaze International is helping to create a community for those who share a common interest in promoting, supporting, and protecting natural, safe, and healthy childbirth. The editor also describes the contents of this issue, which offer a broad range of resources, research, and inspiration for childbirth educators in their efforts to promote normal birth. PMID:19936112

  3. Potential Implications of Climate Change on Aegilops Species Distribution: Sympatry of These Crop Wild Relatives with the Major European Crop Triticum aestivum and Conservation Issues

    PubMed Central

    Prosperi, Jean-Marie; David, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Gene flow from crop to wild relatives is a common phenomenon which can lead to reduced adaptation of the wild relatives to natural ecosystems and/or increased adaptation to agrosystems (weediness). With global warming, wild relative distributions will likely change, thus modifying the width and/or location of co-occurrence zones where crop-wild hybridization events could occur (sympatry). This study investigates current and 2050 projected changes in sympatry levels between cultivated wheat and six of the most common Aegilops species in Europe. Projections were generated using MaxEnt on presence-only data, bioclimatic variables, and considering two migration hypotheses and two 2050 climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Overall, a general decline in suitable climatic conditions for Aegilops species outside the European zone and a parallel increase in Europe were predicted. If no migration could occur, the decline was predicted to be more acute outside than within the European zone. The potential sympatry level in Europe by 2050 was predicted to increase at a higher rate than species richness, and most expansions were predicted to occur in three countries, which are currently among the top four wheat producers in Europe: Russia, France and Ukraine. The results are also discussed with regard to conservation issues of these crop wild relatives. PMID:27100790

  4. Potential Implications of Climate Change on Aegilops Species Distribution: Sympatry of These Crop Wild Relatives with the Major European Crop Triticum aestivum and Conservation Issues.

    PubMed

    Ostrowski, Marie-France; Prosperi, Jean-Marie; David, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Gene flow from crop to wild relatives is a common phenomenon which can lead to reduced adaptation of the wild relatives to natural ecosystems and/or increased adaptation to agrosystems (weediness). With global warming, wild relative distributions will likely change, thus modifying the width and/or location of co-occurrence zones where crop-wild hybridization events could occur (sympatry). This study investigates current and 2050 projected changes in sympatry levels between cultivated wheat and six of the most common Aegilops species in Europe. Projections were generated using MaxEnt on presence-only data, bioclimatic variables, and considering two migration hypotheses and two 2050 climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Overall, a general decline in suitable climatic conditions for Aegilops species outside the European zone and a parallel increase in Europe were predicted. If no migration could occur, the decline was predicted to be more acute outside than within the European zone. The potential sympatry level in Europe by 2050 was predicted to increase at a higher rate than species richness, and most expansions were predicted to occur in three countries, which are currently among the top four wheat producers in Europe: Russia, France and Ukraine. The results are also discussed with regard to conservation issues of these crop wild relatives. PMID:27100790

  5. Impacts of Climate Change at Watershed Scale: Creating an Ecological Basis for "Smart Growth" and Economic Development in the Post-industrial Lehigh Valley of Eastern PA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, B.; Felzer, B.; Pazzaglia, F.; Sahagian, D.

    2009-05-01

    As modeling of global climate change matures and regional projections regarding regional variability become viable, the scales of climate impact analysis and regional decision-making begin to converge. This convergence provides a critical new challenge for both the climate modeling and policy communities- "How can projected climate change insights at watershed scale most effectively inform decisions regarding land use, zoning, and growth management?" This issue is particularly critical in regions that were formerly heavily industrialized and developed, and that are now finding new avenues for economic growth in the wake of massive clear-cutting, mining, and heavy industry of the 19th and 20th centuries. The Lehigh Valley is a watershed defining a single ecosystem that contains 800,000 people, 321 square miles of croplands and 95 square miles of urban areas, with the remainder of the watershed at various successional stages after massive forest clear-cutting of the last two centuries. Many of the industries that fueled the industrial revolution were based in the Lehigh Valley, and their development came at an environmental cost that was not then recognized, but that left a legacy of mine-scarred lands, acid mine drained streams, soil and water contamination, and a derelict industrial infrastructure that state and local governments have only recently begun to address. Before these institutions can plan for redevelopment of brownfields, regional planning for housing and commercial development, and preservation of forested and agricultural lands, it is first necessary to understand the impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology, productivity, and other ecosystems functions, and to provide this information to decision-makers responsible for environmentally sustainable development and regional planning. "Smart Growth" has become a catch phrase for regional development that is sensitive to social, economic, political, and historical goals, as well as ecological

  6. Soil conservation under climate change: use of recovery biomasses on agricultural soil subjected to the passage of agricultural machinery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergonzoli, S.; Beni, C.; Servadio, P.

    2012-04-01

    Biomass administration is a good practice to preserve the soil fertility in climate change conditions. A test regarding the use of compost derived by wine distillation residues was conducted in the coastal area sited west of Rome, on a sandy soil in continuous cropping with carrot, two cycles per year, with a consequent deep environmental impact. The soil was fertilized with different systems: T = unfertilized soil; F = fertigation 200 kg N ha-1; FC = fertigation 100 kg N ha-1 plus half agronomic dose of compost 4 t ha-1; C2 = double compost dose 16 t ha-1; C4 = quadruple compost dose 32 t ha-1. The functional qualities of the soil, subjected to the passage of agricultural machineries, were determined through the following parameters: bulk density, shear strength, water infiltration rate, organic matter and nitrogen content, cation exchange capacity. At the summer harvest, yield of carrots, their sugar content, firmness and nutrients concentration were determined. The plots only amended (C2 and C4), compared to other treatments, presented lower bulk density (1.36 and 1.28 Mg m-3 respectively), higher shear strength (9 and 8 kPa respectively), as well as increased hydraulic conductivity. In these treatments (C2 and C4), in addition, occurred a higher content of organic matter (0.95 and 1.07% respectively) and nitrogen (0.11 and 0.12% respectively) and increased CEC (541 and 556 respectively) respect to the T treatment that was 521 meq 100g-1. In plots T and F, the organic matter content was reduced at the end of the field test. The yield of carrots increased in FC, C2, and C4, compared to the other treatments. In plots C4, however, morphological changes were induced in approximately 30% of tap-roots, due to the excessive compost dose. In treatments C2 and C4 was observed a reduction of the concentration of Na in the roots, as opposed to the higher concentration of Ca and K and trace elements. The administration of compost has also induced the increase of soluble

  7. Non-native and native organisms moving into high elevation and high latitude ecosystems in an era of climate change: new challenges for ecology and conservation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pauchard, Aníbal; Albihn, Ann; Alexander, Jake; Burgess, Treena; Daehler, Curt; Essl, Franz; Evengard, Birgitta; Greenwood, Greg; Haider, Sylvia; Lenoir, Jonathan; McDougall, K.; Milbau, Ann; Muths, Erin L.; Nunez, Martin; Pellissier, Lois; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa; Robertson, Mark; Sanders, Nathan; Kueffer, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    Cold environments at high elevation and high latitude are often viewed as resistant to biological invasions. However, climate warming, land use change and associated increased connectivity all increase the risk of biological invasions in these environments. Here we present a summary of the key discussions of the workshop ‘Biosecurity in Mountains and Northern Ecosystems: Current Status and Future Challenges’ (Flen, Sweden, 1–3 June 2015). The aims of the workshop were to (1) increase awareness about the growing importance of species expansion—both non-native and native—at high elevation and high latitude with climate change, (2) review existing knowledge about invasion risks in these areas, and (3) encourage more research on how species will move and interact in cold environments, the consequences for biodiversity, and animal and human health and wellbeing. The diversity of potential and actual invaders reported at the workshop and the likely interactions between them create major challenges for managers of cold environments. However, since these cold environments have experienced fewer invasions when compared with many warmer, more populated environments, prevention has a real chance of success, especially if it is coupled with prioritisation schemes for targeting invaders likely to have greatest impact. Communication and co-operation between cold environment regions will facilitate rapid response, and maximise the use of limited research and management resources.

  8. Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Jenny L; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Nuñez, Tristan A; Theobald, David M

    2016-06-28

    The contiguous United States contains a disconnected patchwork of natural lands. This fragmentation by human activities limits species' ability to track suitable climates as they rapidly shift. However, most models that project species movement needs have not examined where fragmentation will limit those movements. Here, we quantify climate connectivity, the capacity of landscape configuration to allow species movement in the face of dynamically shifting climate. Using this metric, we assess to what extent habitat fragmentation will limit species movements in response to climate change. We then evaluate how creating corridors to promote climate connectivity could potentially mitigate these restrictions, and we assess where strategies to increase connectivity will be most beneficial. By analyzing fragmentation patterns across the contiguous United States, we demonstrate that only 41% of natural land area retains enough connectivity to allow plants and animals to maintain climatic parity as the climate warms. In the eastern United States, less than 2% of natural area is sufficiently connected. Introducing corridors to facilitate movement through human-dominated regions increases the percentage of climatically connected natural area to 65%, with the most impactful gains in low-elevation regions, particularly in the southeastern United States. These climate connectivity analyses allow ecologists and conservation practitioners to determine the most effective regions for increasing connectivity. More importantly, our findings demonstrate that increasing climate connectivity is critical for allowing species to track rapidly changing climates, reconfiguring habitats to promote access to suitable climates. PMID:27298349

  9. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    PubMed

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. PMID:26950769

  10. Cover crops as a gateway to greater conservation in Iowa?: Integrating crop models, field trials, economics and farmer perspectives regarding soil resilience in light of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roesch-McNally, G. E.; Basche, A.; Tyndall, J.; Arbuckle, J. G.; Miguez, F.; Bowman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Scientists predict a number of climate changes for the US Midwest with expected declines in crop productivity as well as eco-hydrological impacts. More frequent extreme rain events particularly in the spring may well increase saturated soils thus complicating agronomic interests and also exacerbate watershed scale impairments (e.g., sediment, nutrient loss). In order to build more resilient production systems in light of climate change, farmers will increasingly need to implement conservation practices (singularly or more likely in combination) that enable farmers to manage profitable businesses yet mitigate consequential environmental impacts that have both in-field and off-farm implications. Cover crops are empirically known to promote many aspects of soil and water health yet even the most aggressive recent estimates show that only 1-2% of the total acreage in Iowa have been planted to cover crops. In order to better understand why farmers are reluctant to adopt cover crops across Iowa we combined agronomic and financial data from long-term field trials, working farm trials and model simulations so as to present comprehensive data-driven information to farmers in focus group discussions in order to understand existing barriers, perceived benefits and responses to the information presented. Four focus groups (n=29) were conducted across Iowa in four geographic regions. Focus group discussions help explore the nuance of farmers' responses to modeling outputs and their real-life agronomic realities, thus shedding light on the social and psychological barriers with cover crop utilization. Among the key insights gained, comprehensive data-driven research can influence farmer perspectives on potential cover crop impacts to cash crop yields, experienced costs are potentially quite variable, and having field/farm benefits articulated in economic terms are extremely important when farmers weigh the opportunity costs associated with adopting new practices. Our work

  11. SP CREATE. Creating Sample Plans

    SciTech Connect

    Spears, J.H.; Seebode, L.

    1998-11-10

    The program has been designed to increase the accuracy and reduce the preparation time for completing sampling plans. It consists of our files 1. Analyte/Combination (AnalCombo) A list of analytes and combinations of analytes that can be requested of the onsite and offsite labs. Whenever a specific combination of analytes or suite names appear on the same line as the code number, this indicates that one sample can be placed in one bottle to be analyzed for these paremeters. A code number is assigned for each analyte and combination of analytes. 2. Sampling Plans Database (SPDb) A database that contains all of the analytes and combinations of analytes along with the basic information required for preparing a sample plan. That basic information includes the following fields; matrix, hold time, preservation, sample volume, container size, if the bottle caps are taped, acceptable choices. 3. Sampling plans create (SPcreate) a file that will lookup information from the Sampling Plans Database and the Job Log File (JLF98) A major database used by Sample Managemnet Services for recording more than 100 fields of information.

  12. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pinkney, Alfred E.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Evers, David C.; Hooper, Michael J.; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W.; Lazarus, Rebecca; Marshall, Harold G.; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A.; Schmerfeld, John J.; Sparling, Donald W.

    2015-01-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public–private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena—freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures

  13. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region.

    PubMed

    Pinkney, Alfred E; Driscoll, Charles T; Evers, David C; Hooper, Michael J; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W; Lazarus, Rebecca S; Marshall, Harold G; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A; Schmerfeld, John; Sparling, Donald W

    2015-07-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public-private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena-freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and

  14. The Northeast Climate Science Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratnaswamy, M. J.; Palmer, R. N.; Morelli, T.; Staudinger, M.; Holland, A. R.

    2013-12-01

    The Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) is part of a federal network of eight Climate Science Centers created to provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change. Recognizing the critical threats, unique climate challenges, and expansive and diverse nature of the northeast region, the University of Massachusetts Amherst, College of Menominee Nation, Columbia University, Marine Biological Laboratory, University of Minnesota, University of Missouri Columbia, and University of Wisconsin-Madison have formed a consortium to host the NE CSC. This partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey climate science center network provides wide-reaching expertise, resources, and established professional collaborations in both climate science and natural and cultural resources management. This interdisciplinary approach is needed for successfully meeting the regional needs for climate impact assessment, adaptive management, education, and stakeholder outreach throughout the northeast region. Thus, the NE CSC conducts research, both through its general funds and its annual competitive award process, that responds to the needs of natural resource management partners that exist, in part or whole, within the NE CSC bounds. This domain includes the North Atlantic, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, Eastern Tallgrass and Big Rivers, and Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), among other management stakeholders. For example, researchers are developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances which can enable adaptation of projected climate impacts; conducting a Designing Sustainable Landscapes project to assess the capability of current and potential future landscapes in the Northeast to provide integral ecosystems and suitable habitat for a suite of

  15. Creating Geoscience Leaders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buskop, J.; Buskop, W.

    2013-12-01

    The United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization recognizes 21 World Heritage in the United States, ten of which have astounding geological features: Wrangell St. Elias National Park, Olympic National Park, Mesa Verde National Park, Chaco Canyon, Glacier National Park, Carlsbad National Park, Mammoth Cave, Great Smokey Mountains National Park, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, and Everglades National Park. Created by a student frustrated with fellow students addicted to smart phones with an extreme lack of interest in the geosciences, one student visited each World Heritage site in the United States and created one e-book chapter per park. Each chapter was created with original photographs, and a geological discovery hunt to encourage teen involvement in preserving remarkable geological sites. Each chapter describes at least one way young adults can get involved with the geosciences, such a cave geology, glaciology, hydrology, and volcanology. The e-book describes one park per chapter, each chapter providing a geological discovery hunt, information on how to get involved with conservation of the parks, geological maps of the parks, parallels between archaeological and geological sites, and how to talk to a ranger. The young author is approaching UNESCO to publish the work as a free e-book to encourage involvement in UNESCO sites and to prove that the geosciences are fun.

  16. MASSACHUSETTS DIVISION OF FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE ADAPTATION PLANNING USING AN EXPERT PANEL BASED HABITAT VULNERABLITY ASSESSMENT John O'Leary, MA Div. of Fisheries and Wildlife and Hector Galbraith, Ph d. Climate Change Initiative, Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Leary, J. A.; Galbraith, H.

    2010-12-01

    We are using the results from a recently completed Habitat Vulnerability Assessment (HVA) for adaptation planning within the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife. We used Regional Downscale Climate Projections to provide exposure information for the assessment and an Expert Panel of biologists to provide information on the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the habitat types we assessed. We estimated the vulnerability of 22 key habitat types which were identified in the State Wildlife Action Plan (SWAP). Results of the expert panel based HVA include a relative ranking of vulnerability to climate change for these habitats within Massachusetts, a confidence score for the estimated vulnerability for each habitat type evaluated and a narrative identifying the factors which influence the vulnerability of the habitat. We also evaluated the vulnerability of the Species in Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) from the SWAP to climate change conditions. The SGCN are linked to their primary habitat types. The HVA results along with recommendations from the National Academies Report: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change will inform “climate smart” adaptation strategies for agency management, acquisition, and research and monitoring programs that build on and do not replace existing implementation strategies. We believe that the adaptation planning process that we outline in this presentation could serve as a model for resource agencies and others who are in the process of developing their response to anticipated impacts from climate change conditions. We are also engaged in a collaborative effort to conduct a Regional Habitat Vulnerability Assessment (RHVA). Results form the RHVA will provide the MDFW with the ability to assess adaptation strategies based on regional need.

  17. From daily to sub-daily time steps - Creating a high temporal and spatial resolution climate reference data set for hydrological modeling and bias-correction of RCM data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul R.; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. It builds on the conjoint analysis of a large ensemble of the CRCM5, driven by 50 members of the CanESM2, and the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change on the dynamics of extreme events. A critical point in the entire project is the preparation of a meteorological reference dataset with the required temporal (1-6h) and spatial (500m) resolution to be able to better evaluate hydrological extreme events in mesoscale river basins. For Bavaria a first reference data set (daily, 1km) used for bias-correction of RCM data was created by combining raster based data (E-OBS [1], HYRAS [2], MARS [3]) and interpolated station data using the meteorological interpolation schemes of the hydrological model WaSiM [4]. Apart from the coarse temporal and spatial resolution, this mosaic of different data sources is considered rather inconsistent and hence, not applicable for modeling of hydrological extreme events. Thus, the objective is to create a dataset with hourly data of temperature, precipitation, radiation, relative humidity and wind speed, which is then used for bias-correction of the RCM data being used as driver for hydrological modeling in the river basins. Therefore, daily data is disaggregated to hourly time steps using the 'Method of fragments' approach [5], based on available training stations. The disaggregation chooses fragments of daily values from observed hourly datasets, based on similarities in magnitude and behavior of previous and subsequent events. The choice of a certain reference station (hourly data, provision of fragments) for disaggregating daily station data (application

  18. Creating a Climate for Service Learning Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeandron, Carol; Robinson, Gail

    2010-01-01

    The American Association of Community Colleges (AACC) defines service learning as the combination of classroom instruction with community service, focusing on critical, reflective thinking as well as personal and civic responsibility. Service learning programs involve students in activities that address local, community-identified needs while…

  19. It's about Relationships: Creating Positive School Climates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ashley, Dana M.

    2016-01-01

    When teachers wonder "What should I do?" in response to challenging student behaviors, the answers are not as simple as they might seem. What teachers can do also depends, at least in part, on external demands (e.g., discipline codes, principal expectations, time pressures on teaching content and testing) that can either facilitate or…

  20. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

  1. WATER CONSERVATION IN SOIL

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Water conservation is important for agricultural, residential, industrial, and recreational users in all climatic regions, but becomes increasingly important when going from humid to semiarid and arid regions. This report briefly describes techniques that can be used to increase the storage of water...

  2. Conservation of fern spores

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Ferns are a diverse and important group of plants, but diversity of species and populations are at risk from increasing social pressures, loss of habitat and climate change. Ex situ conservation is a useful strategy to limit decline in genetic diversity and requires technologies to preserve fern ger...

  3. USDA Southwest climate hub for climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made up...

  4. Scale in conservation planning

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Conservation planning has been widely embraced as a method to efficiently allocate limited resources to those aspects of biodiversity most in need of protection or management. However, in order to create successful strategies for long-term biodiversity protection and sustainability, explicit conside...

  5. Collections Conservation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeCandido, Robert

    Collections conservation is an approach to the preservation treatment of books and book-like materials that is conceptualized and organized in terms of large groups of materials. This guide is intended to enable a library to evaluate its current collections conservation activities. The introduction describes collections conservation and gives…

  6. Can conservation trump impacts of climate change on soil erosion? An assessment from winter wheat cropland in the Southern Great Plains of the United States

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    With the need to increase crop production to meet the needs of growing population, protecting the productivity of our soil resource is essential. However, conservationists are concerned that conservation practices that were effective in the past may no longer be effective in the future under project...

  7. The Nanchang communication about the potential for the implementation of conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation to achieve food security in the 21st century

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Several recent peer reviewed manuscripts have reported on the great challenges humanity is confronting during the XXI century, including a changing climate, depletion of water resources from groundwater and/or snow caps sources that are needed for agricultural production, deforestation, desertificat...

  8. Modeling climate change effects on runoff and soil erosion in southeastern Arizona rangelands and implications for mitigation with rangeland conservation practices

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is expected to impact runoff and soil erosion on rangelands in the southwestern United States. This study was done to evaluate the potential impacts of precipitation changes on soil erosion and surface runoff in southeastern Arizona using seven GCM models with three emission scenarios...

  9. Youth Development and Conservation Corps.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission, Olympia.

    Created in 1961 by the Washington State Legislature, the Youth Development and Conservation Corps (YDCC) affords youth and young men aged 14-21 employment opportunities in conservation programs that entail developing, improving, and maintaining natural and artificial recreation areas for the general public. It is designed to help young…

  10. Using Hydrated Salt Phase Change Materials for Residential Air Conditioning Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Conservation in Coastal and Transitional Climates in the State of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Kyoung Ok

    The recent rapid economic and population growth in the State of California have led to a significant increase in air conditioning use, especially in areas of the State with coastal and transitional climates. This fact makes that the electric peak demand be dominated by air conditioning use of residential buildings in the summer time. This extra peak demand caused by the use of air conditioning equipment lasts only a few days out of the year. As a result, unavoidable power outages have occurred when electric supply could not keep up with such electric demand. This thesis proposed a possible solution to this problem by using building thermal mass via phase change materials to reduce peak air conditioning demand loads. This proposed solution was tested via a new wall called Phase Change Frame Wall (PCFW). The PCFW is a typical residential frame wall in which Phase Change Materials (PCMs) were integrated to add thermal mass. The thermal performance of the PCFWs was first evaluated, experimentally, in two test houses, built for this purpose, located in Lawrence, KS and then via computer simulations of residential buildings located in coastal and transitional climates in California. In this thesis, a hydrated salt PCM was used, which was added in concentrations of 10% and 20% by weight of the interior sheathing of the walls. Based on the experimental results, under Lawrence, KS weather, the PCFWs at 10% and 20% of PCM concentrations reduced the peak heat transfer rates by 27.0% and 27.3%, on average, of all four walls, respectively. Simulated results using California climate data indicated that PCFWs would reduce peak heat transfer rates by 8% and 19% at 10% PCM concentration and 12.2% and 27% at 20% PCM concentration for the coastal and transitional climates, respectively. Furthermore, the PCFWs, at 10% PCM concentration, would reduce the space cooling load and the annual energy consumption by 10.4% and 7.2%, on average in both climates, respectively.