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1

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Dynamics under Recent and Future Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The behavior of the terrestrial carbon cycle under historical and future climate change is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, now coupled to a dynamic terrestrial vegetation and global carbon cycle model. When forced by historical emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and land-use change, the coupled climate-carbon cycle model accurately reproduces historical atmospheric CO2 trends,

H. Damon Matthews; Andrew J. Weaver; Katrin J. Meissner

2005-01-01

2

Positive feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle  

Microsoft Academic Search

Future climate change due to increased atmospheric CO2 may affect land and ocean efficiency to absorb atmospheric CO2. Here, using climate and carbon three-dimensional models forced by a 1% per year increase in atmospheric CO2, we show that there is a positive feedback between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Climate change reduces land and ocean uptake of CO2,

Pierre Friedlingstein; Laurent Bopp; Philippe Ciais; Jean-Louis Dufresne; Laurent Fairhead; Hervé LeTreut; Patrick Monfray; James Orr

2001-01-01

3

Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Kirill Kondratyev and his colleagues present an unusual look at global change issues, with particular emphasis on quantitative models that can capture diverse aspects of the complete Earth system-vegetation, atmosphere, oceans, and human beings. The focus is on the global carbon cycle as a prime indicator of global environmental stresses. It includes some remarkably sharp, and insightful critical analysis of

Steven C. Wofsy

2004-01-01

4

Climate System Impacts of the Changing Nitrogen Cycle (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The bio-atmospheric exchange of reactive nitrogen has changed three to five fold since 1850 as a result of intensified fossil fuel use and agriculture. The changing nitrogen cycle is poised at the crossroads of climate change, air and water quality, agriculture, and sustainability. The carbon cycle has been in the limelight of public attention because of the importance of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas. Yet, the nitrogen cycle is central to the atmospheric concentrations of four of the top five greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide, and to the concentration of atmospheric aerosols that provide radiative cooling offsets to the net positive radiative forcing that drives the warming of the globe. I evaluate the quantitative impact of the nitrogen cycle on each of greenhouse gases and on aerosol concentrations to lay the groundwork for further systematic study of the impact of the nitrogen cycle on the climate system.

Holland, E. A.

2010-12-01

5

THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE  

Microsoft Academic Search

The uncertainty in global climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is primarily due to cloud feedbacks, and precipitation processes are potentially a major regulator of cloud feedback. A major issue is how convective condensate is partitioned between precipitation-size particles that fall out of updrafts and smaller particles that are carried upward and detrained to form anvil cloud. The \\

Anthony D. Del Genio

6

Complex response of the forest nitrogen cycle to climate change.  

PubMed

Climate exerts a powerful influence on biological processes, but the effects of climate change on ecosystem nutrient flux and cycling are poorly resolved. Although rare, long-term records offer a unique opportunity to disentangle effects of climate from other anthropogenic influences. Here, we examine the longest and most complete record of watershed nutrient and climate dynamics available worldwide, which was collected at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United States. We used empirical analyses and model calculations to distinguish between effects of climate change and past perturbations on the forest nitrogen (N) cycle. We find that climate alone cannot explain the occurrence of a dramatic >90% drop in watershed nitrate export over the past 46 y, despite longer growing seasons and higher soil temperatures. The strongest climate influence was an increase in soil temperature accompanied by a shift in paths of soil water flow within the watershed, but this effect explained, at best, only ?40% of the nitrate decline. In contrast, at least 50-60% of the observed change in the N export could be explained by the long-lasting effect of forest cutting in the early 1900s on the N cycle of the soil and vegetation pools. Our analysis shows that historic events can obscure the influence of modern day stresses on the N cycle, even when analyses have the advantage of being informed by 0.5-century-long datasets. These findings raise fundamental questions about interpretations of long-term trends as a baseline for understanding how climate change influences complex ecosystems. PMID:22331889

Bernal, Susana; Hedin, Lars O; Likens, Gene E; Gerber, Stefan; Buso, Don C

2012-02-13

7

Complex response of the forest nitrogen cycle to climate change  

PubMed Central

Climate exerts a powerful influence on biological processes, but the effects of climate change on ecosystem nutrient flux and cycling are poorly resolved. Although rare, long-term records offer a unique opportunity to disentangle effects of climate from other anthropogenic influences. Here, we examine the longest and most complete record of watershed nutrient and climate dynamics available worldwide, which was collected at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United States. We used empirical analyses and model calculations to distinguish between effects of climate change and past perturbations on the forest nitrogen (N) cycle. We find that climate alone cannot explain the occurrence of a dramatic >90% drop in watershed nitrate export over the past 46 y, despite longer growing seasons and higher soil temperatures. The strongest climate influence was an increase in soil temperature accompanied by a shift in paths of soil water flow within the watershed, but this effect explained, at best, only ?40% of the nitrate decline. In contrast, at least 50–60% of the observed change in the N export could be explained by the long-lasting effect of forest cutting in the early 1900s on the N cycle of the soil and vegetation pools. Our analysis shows that historic events can obscure the influence of modern day stresses on the N cycle, even when analyses have the advantage of being informed by 0.5-century-long datasets. These findings raise fundamental questions about interpretations of long-term trends as a baseline for understanding how climate change influences complex ecosystems.

Bernal, Susana; Hedin, Lars O.; Likens, Gene E.; Gerber, Stefan; Buso, Don C.

2012-01-01

8

Cycles of the Earth and Atmosphere: Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This web page is a module for Grades 6-9 on the processes associated with global climate change. It contains background information on the carbon cycle, greenhouse gas concentration, and explores how human activity has been linked with increased greenhouse gases.

2008-10-16

9

Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle  

Microsoft Academic Search

What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a great deal: the overall climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may prove much simpler and more predictable than the chaos of short-term weather. Quantifying the diversity of possible responses is essential for any objective,

Myles R. Allen; William J. Ingram

2002-01-01

10

Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle.  

PubMed

What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a great deal: the overall climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may prove much simpler and more predictable than the chaos of short-term weather. Quantifying the diversity of possible responses is essential for any objective, probability-based climate forecast, and this task will require a new generation of climate modelling experiments, systematically exploring the range of model behaviour that is consistent with observations. It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker. PMID:12226677

Allen, Myles R; Ingram, William J

2002-09-12

11

Enterprise ethical climate changes over life cycle stages  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – Life cycle stages may see, result from, and\\/or cause, changes in culture and climate as the right-brain attributes of both managers and their co-workers. A four-stage model is used to perceive these possible changes. Findings are tested in Slovenian enterprises. Differences per stages may be crucial and should therefore be known to managers\\/owners. Based on the case study

Jernej Belak; Matjaž Mulej

2009-01-01

12

Climate change impact on the carbon cycle in Russian peatlands  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dynamic compartment model with annual time resolution of carbon cycle functioning with elements of nitrogen and water cycles for three basic types of peatlands (oligotrophic, mesotrophic, eutrophic) is designed and verified based on data for several peatland ecosystems from Russian European part and Western Siberia as well as on estimates of relative areas occupied by these types in each of wetland provinces marked by Kats (1970). Flows between three main reservoirs and input-output fluxes can have donor-, recipient-, Volterra-controlled forms or be saturation functions of storages in participating reservoirs. Possible steady states of combined cycles allow to distinguish forest, forest-swamp and swamp for each of three types of peatland ecosystems as stable equilibria. Stability and bifurcation analysis of the dynamic model, as well as numerical modeling of transient non-equilibrium dynamic regimes, is carried out in the space of three parameters corresponding to intensities of atmospheric carbon assimilation by vegetation, output runoff from soils and litter, decay of dead organic matter by animals and microorganisms. These parameters depend on climatic magnitudes - annual temperature and total precipitation, soil moisture, availability of nitrogen in the litterfall. Atmospheric CO2 concentration increase can lead to appearance of oscillations in system compartments or to transition into other steady states depending on two other parameter values. Numerical simulations and analytical findings allow establish stability boundaries of each peatland type as an equilibrium of the model, and to calculate critical values of external parameters for which stable functioning of matter cycles is provided. Change in climatic or human perturbation parameters initiates a shift in the model parameter space corresponding to the temporal evolution of carbon cycle capable to change the ecosystem state significantly. Estimations of relative areas occupied by peatland types in some regions of European Russia and Western Siberia help to make predictions on the contribution of large peatland regions to the carbon cycle dynamics at regional and global scales and clarify future biotic contribution into carbon emissions from peatland ecosystems to the atmosphere under several CO2 doubling climate change scenarios taken as an output of different climate models. Changes in areas occupied by oligotrophic, mesotrophic and eutrophic peatlands in wetland provinces under these scenarios are also studied. This work is supported by the program of the Earth Sciences Department of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Physical and chemical processes in atmosphere and on Earth surface determining climate change", projects 09-01-226a and 09-05-00153a of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research.

Zavalishin, N. N.

2009-04-01

13

Climate sensitivity to the carbon cycle modulated by past and future changes in ocean chemistry  

Microsoft Academic Search

The carbon cycle has a central role in climate change. For example, during glacial–interglacial cycles, atmospheric carbon dioxide has altered radiative forcing and amplified temperature changes. However, it is unclear how sensitive the climate system has been to changes in carbon cycling in previous geological periods, or how this sensitivity may evolve in the future, following massive anthropogenic emissions. Here

Andy Ridgwell; Michael J. Follows; Philip Goodwin; Richard G. Williams

2009-01-01

14

CHANGING CLIMATE AND PHOTOBIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES IN AQUATIC ENVIRONMENTS  

EPA Science Inventory

Global biogeochemistry plays a critical role in controlling life processes, climate and their interactions, including effects on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent evidence indicates that the light-driven part of aquatic biogeochemical cycles is being altered by in...

15

Effects of Changing Climate on Hydrological and Carbon Cycles  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The global carbon, water and energy cycles are closely coupled. Evapotranspiration (ET) is thereby a central term in the water and energy budget, but also central to ecosystem services like crop production and carbon sequestration. Mu et al. (2007, 2011) developed a MODIS global ET algorithm that proved robust against measured ET from AmeriFlux eddy flux towers. Zhao et al. (2005) recently improved the MODIS global GPP/NPP algorithm, which also performs well at AmeriFlux tower sites (Heinsch et al., 2006). Zhao and Running (2010) found that the global NPP has declined due to drought effects over 2000-2009. In this study, the performance of MODIS ET algorithm was evaluated at the global FLUXNET tower sites, and the interannual variability of the individual components of global ET was analyzed together with global MODIS GPP/NPP and climate data over 2000-2010 to examine how the interannual climate variations differently affected water and carbon cycles for the study time period. The trend of available water resource for the society and ecosystems as a residual of precipitation minus ET almost follows that of precipitation globally except in Northern Africa and part of South America where ET has increased much more than has precipitation. Though transpiration has declined in Northern Africa, GPP, NPP and evaporation have increased. The coupling through stomatal control between plant transpiration and photosynthesis doesn't result in the same transpiration and GPP trends. The changing temperature and water stress are the major factors for these changes in water and carbon cycles.

Mu, Q.; Zhao, M.; Running, S. W.; Stoy, P. C.

2011-12-01

16

Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: Interactions and feedbacks  

Microsoft Academic Search

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and

David J

2011-01-01

17

Future climate change, the agricultural water cycle, and agricultural production in China  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change would have a major impact on the hydrological cycle and consequently on available water resources, the potential for flood and drought, and agricultural productivity. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the agricultural water cycle and their implications for agricultural production in the 2020s were assessed by water-balance calculations for Chinese croplands. Temporal and spatial changes

Fulu Tao; Masayuki Yokozawa; Yousay Hayashi; Erda Lina

2003-01-01

18

Understanding and Predicting Water and Energy Cycle Changes in NOAA Climate Program  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The NOAA Climate Program leads and coordinates climate activities across all line offices in NOAA. The objectives of NOAA Climate Program are: 1) to describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, monitoring, and data management, 2) to understand and predict climate variability and change from weeks to decades to a century, and 3) to improve the ability of society to plan for and respond to climate variability and change. The NOAA Climate Program consists of three major programs: Climate Observation and Monitoring, Climate Research and Modeling and Climate Service Development. Understanding and predicting water & energy cycle variability and changes and their consequences to the society have been major undertaking within NOAA Climate Program. Climate variability and change profoundly influence the health, prosperity, and well-being of the people of the United States, as well as all other nations of the world, with vital global economic and security implications. NOAA Climate Program is currently working on a new strategy to develop an improved capability and better climate services to plan for and adapt to climate variability and change. Understanding and predicting water & energy cycle variability and changes will be an important component in NOAA's new strategy for improved climate services. NOAA is willing to work with national and international partners to improve climate services in the changing climate.

Koblinsky, C. J.

2008-05-01

19

Carbon Cycling in Grasslands: Effects of Climate Change  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

Large amounts of carbon are stored in grassland soils, which can potentially buffer or exacerbate climate change depending on interacting climate factors. Here we discuss results from several grassland field studies examining the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and/or temperature rise on carbo...

20

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx.  

PubMed

The classic 10-year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10-year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2-year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long-term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10-year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940-1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10-year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare-lynx system. PMID:23846828

Yan, Chuan; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Krebs, Charles J; Zhang, Zhibin

2013-09-11

21

Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate change to the carbon cycle in China's ecosystems  

Microsoft Academic Search

Atmospheric CO2 and China's climate have changed greatly during 1961–2000. The influence of increased CO2 and changing climate on the carbon cycle of the terrestrial ecosystems in China is still unclear. In this article we used a process-based ecosystem model, Biome-BGC, to assess the effects of changing climate and elevated atmospheric CO2 on terrestrial China's carbon cycle during two time

Qiaozhen Mu; Maosheng Zhao; Steven W. Running; Mingliang Liu; Hanqin Tian

2008-01-01

22

Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate change to the carbon cycle in China's ecosystems  

Microsoft Academic Search

Atmospheric CO2 and China's climate have changed greatly during 1961-2000. The influence of increased CO2 and changing climate on the carbon cycle of the terrestrial ecosystems in China is still unclear. In this article we used a process-based ecosystem model, Biome-BGC, to assess the effects of changing climate and elevated atmospheric CO2 on terrestrial China's carbon cycle during two time

Qiaozhen Mu; Maosheng Zhao; Steven W. Running; Mingliang Liu; Hanqin Tian

2008-01-01

23

Water Cycling under Climate Change. Interactions between the water cycle, vegetation and a changing (sub)tropical climate  

Microsoft Academic Search

The water cycle is an essential component of the climate system because the physical properties of water in its liquid, solid and gaseous phases allow for the redistribution of energy in the oceans and atmosphere. At the scale of individual organisms, water and energy are also essential for the biochemical reactions required for life to develop. The terrestrial biosphere may

H. J. de Boer

2012-01-01

24

Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change: changes in extremes of the hydrological cycle  

Microsoft Academic Search

Changes in variability and extremes of the hydrological cycle are studied in two 30 year simulations using a general circulation model at high horizontal resolution. The simulations represent the present-day climate and a period in which the radiative forcing corresponds to a doubling of the present-day concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In most regions and seasons the probability density function

Reinhard Voss; Wilhelm May; Erich Roeckner

2002-01-01

25

Climate change or climate cycles? Snowpack trends in the Olympic and Cascade Mountains, Washington, USA.  

PubMed

Climate change could significantly influence seasonal streamflow and water availability in the snowpack-fed watersheds of Washington, USA. Descriptions of snowpack decline often use linear ordinary least squares (OLS) models to quantify this change. However, the region's precipitation is known to be related to climate cycles. If snowpack decline is more closely related to these cycles, an OLS model cannot account for this effect, and thus both descriptions of trends and estimates of decline could be inaccurate. We used intervention analysis to determine whether snow water equivalent (SWE) in 25 long-term snow courses within the Olympic and Cascade Mountains are more accurately described by OLS (to represent gradual change), stationary (to represent no change), or step-stationary (to represent climate cycling) models. We used Bayesian information-theoretic methods to determine these models' relative likelihood, and we found 90 models that could plausibly describe the statistical structure of the 25 snow courses' time series. Posterior model probabilities of the 29 "most plausible" models ranged from 0.33 to 0.91 (mean = 0.58, s = 0.15). The majority of these time series (55%) were best represented as step-stationary models with a single breakpoint at 1976/77, coinciding with a major shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, estimates of SWE decline differed by as much as 35% between statistically plausible models of a single time series. This ambiguity is a critical problem for water management policy. Approaches such as intervention analysis should become part of the basic analytical toolkit for snowpack or other climatic time series data. PMID:22411029

Barry, Dwight; McDonald, Shea

2012-03-14

26

The global marine phosphorus cycle : response to climate change and feedbacks on ocean biogeochemistry  

Microsoft Academic Search

This thesis focuses on the marine phosphorus (P) cycle and its response to changing environmental conditions, particularly those associated with glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene and Ocean Anoxic Events in the Cretaceous. From a box model of the ocean phosphorus, organic carbon and oxygen cycles, climate change scenarios are applied representing these events. The effects of continental supply of

I. Tsandev

2010-01-01

27

Modelling the hydrological cycle in assessments of climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change caused by increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may have important effects on water circulation and availability and thus on agriculture, forestry and river flow, with significant economic consequences. A variety of models are being used to evaluate hydrological effects, but their hydrological responses to global warming are often inconsistent. Improved understanding of basic hydrological processes is needed

D. Rind; C. Rosenzweig; R. Goldberg

1992-01-01

28

How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Future climate change induced by atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases is believed to have a large impact on the global carbon cycle. Several offline studies focusing either on the marine or on the terrestrial carbon cycle highlighted such potential effects. Two recent online studies, using ocean-atmosphere general circulation models coupled to land and ocean carbon cycle models, in- vestigated in

P. FRIEDLINGSTEIN; J.-L. DUFRESNE; P. M. COX; P. RAYNER

2003-01-01

29

Climate Change Impacts on the Organic Carbon Cycle at the Land-Ocean Interface  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estuaries are among the most altered and vulnerable marine ecosystems. These ecosystems will likely continue to deteriorate owing to increased population growth in coastal regions, expected temperature and precipitation changes associated with climate change, and their interaction with each other, leading to serious consequences for the ecological and societal services they provide. A key function of estuaries is the transfer, transformation, and burial of carbon and other biogenic elements exchanged between the land and ocean systems. Climate change has the potential to influence the carbon cycle through anticipated changes to organic matter production in estuaries and through the alteration of carbon transformation and export processes. This review discusses the effects of climate change on processes influencing the cycling of organic carbon in estuaries, including examples from three temperate estuaries in North America. Our goal is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the connectivity of terrestrial, estuarine, and coastal ocean carbon cycles.

Canuel, Elizabeth A.; Cammer, Sarah S.; McIntosh, Hadley A.; Pondell, Christina R.

2012-05-01

30

Changing Climate.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The following questions are discussed: (1) Is global climate changing. (2) What is the pattern of global climatic change. (3) What causes global climate to change. (4) Is man's activity inadvertently influencing global climate. (5) What are the possibilit...

J. O. Fletcher

1968-01-01

31

Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate change to the carbon cycle in China's ecosystems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atmospheric CO2 and China's climate have changed greatly during 1961-2000. The influence of increased CO2 and changing climate on the carbon cycle of the terrestrial ecosystems in China is still unclear. In this article we used a process-based ecosystem model, Biome-BGC, to assess the effects of changing climate and elevated atmospheric CO2 on terrestrial China's carbon cycle during two time periods: (1) the present (1961-2000) and (2) a future with projected climate change under doubled CO2 (2071-2110). The effects of climate change alone were estimated by driving Biome-BGC with a fixed CO2 concentration and changing climate, while the CO2 fertilization effects were calculated as the difference between the results driven by both increasing CO2 and changing climate and those of variable climate alone. Model simulations indicate that during 1961-2000 at the national scale, changes in climate reduced carbon storage in China's ecosystems, but increasing CO2 compensated for these adverse effects of climate change, resulting in an overall increase in the carbon storage of China's ecosystems despite decreases in soil carbon. The interannual variability of the carbon cycle was associated with climate variations. Regional differences in climate change produced differing regional carbon uptake responses. Spatially, reductions in carbon in vegetation and soils and increases in litter carbon were primarily caused by climate change in most parts of east China, while carbon in vegetation, soils, and litter increased for much of west China. Under the future scenario (2071-2110), with a doubling CO2, China will experience higher precipitation and temperature as predicted by the Hadley Centre HadCM3 for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment. The concomitant doubling of CO2 will continue to counteract the negative effects of climate change on carbon uptake in the future, leading to an increase in carbon storage relative to current levels. This study highlights the role of CO2 fertilization in the carbon budget of China's ecosystems, although future studies should include other important processes such as land use change, human management (e.g., fertilization and irrigation), environmental pollution, etc.

Mu, Qiaozhen; Zhao, Maosheng; Running, Steven W.; Liu, Mingliang; Tian, Hanqin

2008-03-01

32

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF SOLAR UV RADIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING  

EPA Science Inventory

This paper assesses research on the interactions of UV radiation (280-400 nm) and global climate change with global biogeochemical cycles at the Earth's surface. The effects of UV-B (280-315 nm), which are dependent on the stratospheric ozone layer, on biogeochemical cycles are o...

33

Effects of Solar UV Radiation and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks  

EPA Science Inventory

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions...

34

Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human\\/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales, and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has

A. David McGuire; Leif G. Anderson; Torben R. Christensen; Scott Dallimore; Laodong Guo; Daniel J. Hayes; Martin Heimann; Thomas D. Lorenson; Robie W. Macdonald; Nigel Roulet

2009-01-01

35

"Days of future passed" - climate change and carbon cycle history (Jean Baptiste Lamarck Medal Lecture)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

With the beginning of the fossil fuel age in the 19th century mankind has become an important geological agent on a global scale. For the first time in human history action of man has an impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing CO2 concentrations will result in a perturbation of global carbon cycling coupled with climate change. Investigations of past changes in carbon cycling and in climate will improve our predictions of future climate. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will drive climate into a mode of operation, which may resemble climate conditions in the deep geological past. Pliocene climate will give insight into 400ppm world with higher global sea level than today. Doubling of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 levels will shift the climate system into a state resembling greenhouse climate in the Early Cenozoic or even in the Cretaceous. Carbon isotope geochemistry serves as tool for tracing the pathway of the carbon cycle through geological time. Globally registered negative C-isotope anomalies in the C-isotope record are interpreted as signatures of rapid addition (103 to a few 104 years) of CO2 to the ocean-atmosphere system. Positive C-isotope excursions following negative spikes record the slow post-perturbation recovery of the biosphere at time scales of 105 to 106 years. Duration of C-cycle perturbations in earth history cannot be directly compared with rapid perturbation characterizing the Anthropocene. However, the investigation of greenhouse pulses in the geological past provides insight into different climate states, it allows to identify tipping points in past climate systems and it offers the opportunity to learn about response reactions of the biosphere to rapid changes in global carbon cycling. Sudden injection of massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is recorded in C-isotope record of the Early Cretaceous. The Aptian carbon cycle perturbation triggered changes in temperature and in global hydrological cycling. Changes in physical and chemical oceanography are reflected in widespread black shale deposition ("Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a"), in carbonate platform drowning and in biocalcification crises. "Days of future passed" (Moody Blues, 1967) reminds us that the past provides essential information needed for decisions to be made in the interest of mankind's future.

Weissert, Helmut

2013-04-01

36

Projecting future climate change: Implications of carbon cycle model intercomparisons  

Microsoft Academic Search

The range of responses of alternate detailed models for the ocean and biosphere components of the global carbon cycle, cataloged in model intercomparison studies, are simulated by a reduced form Earth system model employing a range of model parameters. The reduced form model, parameterized in this way, allows the integration of these components of the carbon cycle with an energy

Haroon S. Kheshgi; Atul K. Jain

2003-01-01

37

Spatial modelling of mountainous basins; An integrated analysis of the hydrological cycle, climate change and agriculture  

Microsoft Academic Search

Water is the most essential substance on earth and a changing climate has an important impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of water availability. Mountain ranges provide an important “water tower' function and over 20% of the global population depends on fresh water resources provided by the Himalayan range in critical periods of the year. The hydrological cycle is

W. W. Immerzeel

2008-01-01

38

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES  

EPA Science Inventory

The effects of ozone depletion on global biogeochemical cycles, via increased UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, have continued to be documented over the past 4 years. In this report we also document various effects of UV-B that interact with global climate change because the...

39

BUSINESS CYCLE EFFECTS ON CONCERN ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CHILLING EFFECT OF RECESSION  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper uses two different sources of data to investigate the association between the business cycle — measured with unemployment rates — and public concern about climate change. Building on recent research that finds internet search terms to be useful predictors of health epidemics and economic activity, we find that an increase in a state's unemployment rate decreases Google searches

MATTHEW E. KAHN; MATTHEW J. KOTCHEN

2011-01-01

40

The Twilight Zone of the Marine Carbon Cycle and Climate Change Past and Future  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This Ocean and Climate Change Institute article provides information regarding carbon cycling and the ocean. It discusses where and how carbon moves through the ocean system, focusing on carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as it relates to biota and sediment records.

Loubere, Paul; Ridgwell, Andy; Stoll, Heather; Bijma, Jelle; Archer, David; Gregg, Watson

41

Interactive Effects of Urban Land Use and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycles (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban land-use change can affect biogeochemical cycles through altered disturbance regimes, landscape management practices (e.g., irrigation and fertilization), built structures, and altered environments (heat island effect, pollution, introduction of non-native species, loss of native species). As a result, the conversion of native to urban ecological systems has been shown to significantly affect carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles at local, regional, and global scales. These changes have created novel habitats and ecosystems, which have no analogue in the history of life. Nonetheless, some of the environmental changes occurring in urban areas are analogous to the changes expected in climate by the end of the century, e.g. atmospheric increase in CO2 and an increase in air temperatures, which can be utilized as a “natural experiment” to investigate global change effects on large scale ecosystem processes. Moreover, as analogues of expected future environments, urban ecological systems may act as reservoirs of plant and animal species for adjoining landscapes that are expected to undergo relatively rapid climate changes in the next 100 years. Urban land-use change by itself may contribute to changes in regional weather patterns and long-term changes in global climate, which will depend on the net effect of converting native systems to urban systems and the comparison of per capita “footprints” between urban, suburban, and rural inhabitants. My objectives are to 1) assess the impact of changes in urban land-use on climate change and in turn how climate change may affect urban biogeochemical cycles and 2) discuss the potential for urban ecosystems to mitigate green house gas emissions.

Pouyat, R. V.

2009-12-01

42

Changes in Global Water Cycle: Discrepancy Between Satellite Observations and Climate Models  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Most of the attention on climate change research has been devoted to understanding and predicting surface and atmospheric temperature changes. Changes in the global hydrologic cycle play an important role in impacting the society but they are less understood. The availability of 20 years of a continuous and carefully calibrated satellite data record from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) provides us with the opportunity to study global changes of variables related to the water cycle: precipitation (P), water vapor (WV), surface winds (U) and derived evaporation (E). The satellite data show that for the past two decades WV, P and E have all changed at the same rate, about 6.5% per degree of warming. This rate of change is expected for water vapor, as dictated by the Clausius Clapeyron equation (C-C), and is also predicted by climate simulations. On the other hand, global P and E are not constrained by C-C, but rather by the atmospheric energy budget. Climate models predict a muted response of the water cycle to global warming, with a P and E increase on the order of 2%/C. This discrepancy between observed and modeled changes to the water cycle needs to be resolved if we want to have confidence in the models and in the observed data record.

Wentz, F. J.; Ricciardulli, L.; Hilburn, K.

2007-12-01

43

An integrated modeling study of ocean circulation, the ocean carbon cycle, marine ecosystems, and climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The unifying theme of this study is to conduct an extensive exploration of various interactions between ocean circulation, the carbon cycle, marine ecosystems, and climate change using an earth system model of intermediate complexity, ISAM-2.5D (Integrated Science Assessment Model). First, through the simulation of radiocarbon (in terms of Delta14C) it is demonstrated that the inclusion of isopycnal diffusion and a parameterization of eddy-induced circulation in the ISAM-2.5D model yields the most realistic representation of ocean mixing and circulation. Secondly, I demonstrate the value of the simulation of multiple tracers, combined with a variety of observational data, in constraining the ISAM-2.5D model that has been constrained by the simulation of Delta14C. Through the simulation of ocean biogeochemical cycles and CFC-11 and the use of the updated observational data of bomb radiocarbon, I improve the Delta14C-constrained ISAM-2.5D model's performance in simulating ocean circulation and air-sea gas exchange, as well as its credibility in predicting oceanic carbon uptake. Third, I use the ISAM-2.5D model to assess the efficiency of direct carbon injection into the deep ocean with the influence of climate change. It is shown that the consideration of climate change enhances the retention time of injected carbon into the Atlantic Ocean as a result of weakened North Atlantic overturning circulation in a warming climate. However, the climatic effect is insignificant on the efficiency of carbon injection into the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Finally, I quantify that increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations would be mainly responsible for future ocean acidification, including lowering in ocean pH and sea water saturation state with respect to carbonate minerals. The consideration of climate change produces a second-order modification to projected ocean acidification. Therefore, in addition to its radiative effects on climate change, increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations could pose a great threat to marine ecosystems through ocean acidification, which is largely independent of the magnitude of climate change. Overall, this study yields a number of valuable insights into different aspects of the coupled ocean circulation-marine ecosystems-carbon cycle system and contributes to advance our understanding of the ocean carbon cycle and marine chemistry in an environment of changing climate.

Cao, Long

44

Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum  

PubMed Central

The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645–1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun–climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (?18O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun–climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; ?14C) and climate (?18O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring ?18O record in Japan shows distinct negative ?18O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring ?18O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core 10Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum.

Yamaguchi, Yasuhiko T.; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Sho, Kenjiro; Nakatsuka, Takeshi

2010-01-01

45

Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum.  

PubMed

The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun-climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (?(18)O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun-climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; ?(14)C) and climate (?(18)O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring ?(18)O record in Japan shows distinct negative ?(18)O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring ?(18)O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core (10)Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum. PMID:21076031

Yamaguchi, Yasuhiko T; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Sho, Kenjiro; Nakatsuka, Takeshi

2010-11-12

46

Winter climate change effects on soil C and N cycles in urban grasslands.  

PubMed

Despite growing recognition of the role that cities have in global biogeochemical cycles, urban systems are among the least understood of all ecosystems. Urban grasslands are expanding rapidly along with urbanization, which is expected to increase at unprecedented rates in upcoming decades. The large and increasing area of urban grasslands and their impact on water and air quality justify the need for a better understanding of their biogeochemical cycles. There is also great uncertainty about the effect that climate change, especially changes in winter snow cover, will have on nutrient cycles in urban grasslands. We aimed to evaluate how reduced snow accumulation directly affects winter soil frost dynamics, and indirectly greenhouse gas fluxes and the processing of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) during the subsequent growing season in northern urban grasslands. Both artificial and natural snow reduction increased winter soil frost, affecting winter microbial C and N processing, accelerating C and N cycles and increasing soil : atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange during the subsequent growing season. With lower snow accumulations that are predicted with climate change, we found decreases in N retention in these ecosystems, and increases in N2 O and CO2 flux to the atmosphere, significantly increasing the global warming potential of urban grasslands. Our results suggest that the environmental impacts of these rapidly expanding ecosystems are likely to increase as climate change brings milder winters and more extensive soil frost. PMID:23630015

Durán, Jorge; Rodríguez, Alexandra; Morse, Jennifer L; Groffman, Peter M

2013-05-29

47

Sensitivity of carbon cycling in the European Alps to changes of climate and land cover  

Microsoft Academic Search

Assessments of the impacts of global change on carbon stocks in mountain regions have received little attention to date, in\\u000a spite of the considerable role of these areas for the global carbon cycle. We used the regional hydro-ecological simulation\\u000a system RHESSys in five case study catchments from different climatic zones in the European Alps to investigate the behavior\\u000a of the

Bärbel Zierl; Harald Bugmann

2007-01-01

48

Interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling.  

PubMed

This report assesses research on the interactions of UV radiation (280-400 nm) and global climate change with global biogeochemical cycles at the Earth's surface. The effects of UV-B (280-315 nm), which are dependent on the stratospheric ozone layer, on biogeochemical cycles are often linked to concurrent exposure to UV-A radiation (315-400 nm), which is influenced by global climate change. These interactions involving UV radiation (the combination of UV-B and UV-A) are central to the prediction and evaluation of future Earth environmental conditions. There is increasing evidence that elevated UV-B radiation has significant effects on the terrestrial biosphere with implications for the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. The cycling of carbon and inorganic nutrients such as nitrogen can be affected by UV-B-mediated changes in communities of soil organisms, probably due to the effects of UV-B radiation on plant root exudation and/or the chemistry of dead plant material falling to the soil. In arid environments direct photodegradation can play a major role in the decay of plant litter, and UV-B radiation is responsible for a significant part of this photodegradation. UV-B radiation strongly influences aquatic carbon, nitrogen, sulfur and metals cycling that affect a wide range of life processes. UV-B radiation changes the biological availability of dissolved organic matter to microorganisms, and accelerates its transformation into dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrogen, including carbon dioxide and ammonium. The coloured part of dissolved organic matter (CDOM) controls the penetration of UV radiation into water bodies, but CDOM is also photodegraded by solar UV radiation. Changes in CDOM influence the penetration of UV radiation into water bodies with major consequences for aquatic biogeochemical processes. Changes in aquatic primary productivity and decomposition due to climate-related changes in circulation and nutrient supply occur concurrently with exposure to increased UV-B radiation, and have synergistic effects on the penetration of light into aquatic ecosystems. Future changes in climate will enhance stratification of lakes and the ocean, which will intensify photodegradation of CDOM by UV radiation. The resultant increase in the transparency of water bodies may increase UV-B effects on aquatic biogeochemistry in the surface layer. Changing solar UV radiation and climate also interact to influence exchanges of trace gases, such as halocarbons (e.g., methyl bromide) which influence ozone depletion, and sulfur gases (e.g., dimethylsulfide) that oxidize to produce sulfate aerosols that cool the marine atmosphere. UV radiation affects the biological availability of iron, copper and other trace metals in aquatic environments thus potentially affecting metal toxicity and the growth of phytoplankton and other microorganisms that are involved in carbon and nitrogen cycling. Future changes in ecosystem distribution due to alterations in the physical and chemical climate interact with ozone-modulated changes in UV-B radiation. These interactions between the effects of climate change and UV-B radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic systems may partially offset the beneficial effects of an ozone recovery. PMID:17344963

Zepp, R G; Erickson, D J; Paul, N D; Sulzberger, B

2007-02-06

49

How does complex terrain influence responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change? (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We are pursuing the ambitious goal of understanding how complex terrain influences the responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change. Our studies take place in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site situated in Oregon’s central-western Cascade Range. Decades of long-term measurements and intensive research have revealed influences of topography on vegetation patterns, disturbance history, and hydrology. More recent research has shown surprising interactions between microclimates and synoptic weather patterns due to cold air drainage and pooling in mountain valleys. Using these data and insights, in addition to a recent LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) reconnaissance and a small sensor network, we are employing process-based models, including “SPA” (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere, developed by Mathew Williams of the University of Edinburgh), and “VELMA” (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Alternatives, developed by Marc Stieglitz and colleagues of the Georgia Institute of Technology) to focus on two important features of mountainous landscapes: heterogeneity (both spatial and temporal) and connectivity (atmosphere-canopy-hillslope-stream). Our research questions include: 1) Do fine-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity result in emergent properties at the basin scale, and if so, what are they? 2) How does connectivity across ecosystem components affect system responses to climate variability and change? Initial results show that for environmental drivers that elicit non-linear ecosystem responses on the plot scale, such as solar radiation, soil depth and soil water content, fine-scale spatial heterogeneity may produce unexpected emergent properties at larger scales. The results from such modeling experiments are necessarily a function of the supporting algorithms. However, comparisons based on models such as SPA and VELMA that operate at much different spatial scales (plots vs. hillslopes) and levels of biophysical organization (individual plants vs. aggregate plant biomass) can help us to understand how and why mountainous ecosystems may have distinctive responses to climate variability and climate change.

Bond, B. J.; Peterson, K.; McKane, R.; Lajtha, K.; Quandt, D. J.; Allen, S. T.; Sell, S.; Daly, C.; Harmon, M. E.; Johnson, S. L.; Spies, T.; Sollins, P.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Stieglitz, M.

2010-12-01

50

Interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on biogeochemical cycles.  

PubMed

The effects of ozone depiction on global biogeochemical cycles, via increased UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, have continued to be documented over the past 4 years. In this report we also document various effects of UV-B that interact with global climate change because the detailed interactions between ozone depletion and climate change are central to the prediction and evaluation of future Earth environmental conditions. There is increasing evidence that elevated UV-B has significant effects on the terrestrial biosphere with important implications for the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. Increased UV has been shown to induce carbon monoxide production from dead plant matter in terrestrial ecosystems, nitrogen oxide production from Arctic and Antarctic snowpacks, and halogenated substances from several terrestrial ecosystems. New studies on UV effects on the decomposition of dead leaf material confirm that these effects are complex and species-specific. Decomposition can be retarded, accelerated or remain unchanged. It has been difficult to relate effects of UV on decomposition rates to leaf litter chemistry, as this is very variable. However, new evidence shows UV effects on some fungi, bacterial communities and soil fauna that could play roles in decomposition and nutrient cycling. An important new result is that not only is nitrogen cycling in soils perturbed significantly by increased UV-B, but that these effects persist for over a decade. As nitrogen cycling is temperature dependent, this finding clearly links the impacts of ozone depletion to the ability of plants to use nitrogen in a warming global environment. There are many other potential interactions between UV and climate change impacts on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles that remain to be quantified. There is also new evidence that UV-B strongly influences aquatic carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and metals cycling that affect a wide range of life processes. UV-B accelerates the decomposition of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) entering the sea via terrestrial runoff, thus having important effects on oceanic carbon cycle dynamics. Since UV-B influences the distribution of CDOM, there is an impact of UV-B on estimates of oceanic productivity based on remote sensing of ocean color. Thus, oceanic productivity estimates based on remote sensing require estimates of CDOM distributions. Recent research shows that UV-B transforms dissolved organic matter to dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrogen, including carbon dioxide and ammonium and to organic substances that are either more or less readily available to micro-organisms. The extent of these transformations is correlated with loss of UV absorbance by the organic matter. Changes in aquatic primary productivity and decomposition due to climate-related changes in circulation and nutrient supply, which occur concurrently with increased UV-B exposure, have synergistic influences on the penetration of light into aquatic ecosystems. New research has confirmed that UV affects the biological availability of iron, copper and other trace metals in aquatic environments thus potentially affecting the growth of phytoplankton and other microorganisms that are involved in carbon and nitrogen cycling. There are several instances where UV-B modifies the air sea exchange of trace gases that in turn alter atmospheric chemistry, including the carbon cycle. PMID:12659539

Zepp, Richard G; Callaghan, Terry V; Erickson, David J

2003-01-01

51

Response of the atmospheric hydrologic cycle over the Arctic to climate change in CCSM3  

Microsoft Academic Search

Through influences on the freshwater content of the Arctic Ocean, the atmospheric hydrologic cycle over the Arctic has the ability to affect climate on a grand scale. The representation of this cycle within version 3.0 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) has been found to be reasonable over the North Atlantic and the majority of Eurasia, although the model's

J. Finnis; M. Holland; A. P. Barrett

2004-01-01

52

Life-cycle assessment of electricity generation systems and applications for climate change policy analysis  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This research uses Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) to better understand the energy and environmental performance for two electricity generation systems, a 620 MW combined-cycle natural gas plant, and an 8kW building-integrated photovoltaic system. The results of the LCA are used to provide an effective and accurate means for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies for U.S. electricity generation. The modern combined-cycle plant considered in this thesis is nominally 48% thermally efficient, but it is only 43% energy efficient when evaluated across its entire life-cycle, due primarily to energy losses during the natural gas fuel cycle. The emission rate for the combined-cycle natural gas plant life-cycle (469 tonnes CO2-equivalent per GWeh), was 23% higher than the emission rate from plant operation alone (382 tonnes CO2-equivalent per GWeh). Uncertainty in the rate of fuel-cycle methane releases results in a potential range of emission rates between 457 to 534 tonnes CO 2-equivalent per GWeh for the studied plant. The photovoltaic system modules have a sunlight to DC electricity conversion efficiency of 5.7%. However, the system's sunlight to AC electricity conversion efficiency is 4.3%, when accounting for life-cycle energy inputs, as well as losses due to system wiring, AC inversion, and module degradation. The LCA illustrates that the PV system has a low, but not zero, life-cycle greenhouse gas emission rate of 39 Tonnes CO2-equivalent per GWeh. A ternary method of evaluation is used to evaluate three greenhouse gas mitigation alternatives: (1) fuel-switching from coal to natural gas for Kyoto-based compliance, (2) fuel-switching from coal to nuclear/renewable for Kyoto based compliance, and (3) fuel-switching to meet the White House House's Global Climate Change Initiative. In a moderate growth scenario, fuel-switching from coal to natural gas fails to meet a Kyoto-based emission target, while fuel-switching to nuclear/renewable meets the emission objective by reducing coal generated electricity 32% below 2000 levels. The Global Climate Change Initiative allows annual greenhouse gas emissions to increase to levels that are 54% higher than the proposed U.S. commitment under the Kyoto Protocol.

Meier, Paul Joseph

53

The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change  

PubMed Central

Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing.

Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

2000-01-01

54

Macronutrient cycles and climate change: key science areas and an international perspective.  

PubMed

Human activities have doubled global cycles of Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorus (P) and elevated N and P have compromised ecosystem services through the degradation of natural resources of soils, freshwaters and marine waters with a subsequent loss of biodiversity. Elevated Carbon (C) levels in the atmosphere have been linked to global warming, with positive feedback mechanisms accelerating the warming process. In order to initiate nutrient control, both national and international mitigation measures have been implemented. However, many of these initiatives focus upon a single nutrient without considering cycle interactions. A sound understanding of processes and transformations involved in the interactions of macronutrient cycles is required to avoid inadvertently enhancing effects of one nutrient, during mitigation for impacts of another. Emerging research initiatives are addressing these research gaps, with programmes in the US (USGCRP) and the UK (Macronutrient Cycles) advocating integration between scientists and stakeholders, in order to deliver results directly to policy makers. Through these programmes the scales of nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes will be quantified, and a determination made of the nature of nutrient transformations in catchments under a changing climate and perturbed carbon cycle. The consideration of connectivity between multiple macronutrient cycles will help to minimise the threats to biodiversity, ecosystem dynamics, public water supplies and human health by improved management and better focused policy. PMID:21937085

Whitehead, P G; Crossman, J

2011-09-21

55

Climate change during the last 150 million years: reconstruction from a carbon cycle model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Variations of the atmospheric CO 2 level and the global mean surface temperature during the last 150 Ma are reconstructed by using a carbon cycle model with high-resolution input data. In this model, the organic carbon budget and the CO 2 degassing from the mantle, both of which would characterize the carbon cycle during the Cretaceous, are considered, and the silicate weathering process is formulated consistently with an abrupt increase in the marine strontium isotope record for the last 40 Ma. The second-order variations of the atmospheric CO 2 level and the global mean surface temperature in addition to the first-order cooling trend are obtained by using high-resolution data of carbon isotopic composition of marine limestone, seafloor spreading rate, and production rate of oceanic plateau basalt. The results obtained from this model are in good agreement with the previous estimates of palaeo-CO 2 level and palaeoclimate inferred from geological, biogeochemical, and palaeontological models and records. The system analyses of the carbon cycle model to understand the cause of the climate change show that the dominant controlling factors for the first-order cooling trend of climate change during the last 150 Ma are tectonic forcing such as decrease in volcanic activity and the formation and uplift of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, and, to a lesser extent, biological forcing such as the increase in the soil biological activity. The mid-Cretaceous was very warm because of the high CO 2 level (4-5 PAL) maintained by the enhanced CO 2 degassing rate due to the increased mantle plume activities and seafloor spreading rates at that time, although the enhanced organic carbon burial would have a tendency to decrease the CO 2 level effectively at that period. The variation of organic carbon burial rate may have been responsible for the second-order climate change during the last 150 Ma.

Tajika, Eiichi

1998-08-01

56

Changes in the temperature annual cycle in China and their implications for studying climate variability and change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate changes in the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle (seasonality) of surface air temperature (SAT) in China are presented. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method is applied to adaptively extract the annual cycle (the yearly period component, which contributes 96% of the total variance of China mean SAT) from homogenized daily mean SAT. (1)Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of China mean SAT for the period 1961-2007 are investigated. The results show that variation and change in the amplitude are significant, with a peak-to-peak annual amplitude variation of 13% (1.8degC) of its mean amplitude and a significant linear decrease in amplitude by 4.6% (0.63degC) for this period. Also identified is a multidecadal change in amplitude from significant decreasing (-1.7%/decade or -0.23degC/decade) to significant increasing (2.2%/decade or 0.29dedC/decade) occurring around 1993 that overlaps the systematic linear trend. This multidecadal change can be attributed mainly to the change in surface solar radiation, from dimming to brightening, rather than to warming or an enhanced greenhouse effect. We further propose that the combined effect of the global dimming/brightening transition and a gradual increase in greenhouse warming has led to a perceived warming trend that is much larger in winter than in summer and to a perceived accelerated warming in the annual mean since the early 1990s in China. We also note that the deseasonalization method (considering either the conventional repetitive climatological annual cycle or the time-varying annual cycle) can also affect trend estimation. (2)Trends in the spring phase of the annual cycle of SAT and their contributions to the earlier onset of climatic spring in northern China are investigated. Variations in the spring phase of the annual cycle could cause as much as a 20-day shift in the spring onset from one year to another at Beijing station. The change in the spring phase of annual cycle, which is somehow independent of change in the annual mean, explains 40-60% of the spring onset trend in the eastern part of northern China and is attributable to a weakening Asian winter monsoon. Citation: Qian, C., C. Fu, and Z. Wu, 2011: Changes in the amplitude of the temperature annual cycle in China and its implication for climate change research. J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00006.1 (In press) & Qian, C., C. Fu, Z. Wu, and Z. Yan, 2011: The role of changes in the annual cycle in earlier onset of climatic spring in northern China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28(2), 284-296

Qian, C.; Fu, C.; Wu, Z.

2011-12-01

57

A simple explanation for the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to global climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The global hydrologic cycle is likely to increase its strength with global warming. Climate models generally predict an increase in strength of 2.2% K-1, which is much weaker than what would be expected from the increase in saturation vapor pressure of 6.5% K-1. Furthermore, it has been reported that the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to surface temperature differences caused by solar radiation is about 50% greater than by an equivalent difference induced by the greenhouse effect. Here we show that these sensitivities can be derived analytically from an extremely simple surface energy balance model that is constrained by the assumption that vertical convective transport within the atmosphere operates at maximum power. Using current climatic mean conditions, this model predicts a sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle of 2.2% K-1 to surface temperature induced by differences in the greenhouse effect, and a sensitivity of 3.2% K-1 for differences caused by absorbed solar radiation. These sensitivities can be explained by considering the changes in the surface energy balance in which the heating by solar radiation is partitioned equally into radiative and turbulent cooling at a state of maximum power of convective exchange. This explanation emphasizes the different roles that solar and terrestrial radiation play in the surface energy balance and hydrologic cycling that cannot be lumped together into a radiative forcing concept. We illustrate one implication of this explanation for the case of geoengineering, which aims to undo surface temperature differences by solar radiation management, but will nevertheless result in substantial differences in hydrologic cycling due to the difference in sensitivities. We conclude that the overall sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to surface temperature can be understood and predicted by very simple physical considerations.

Kleidon, A.; Renner, M.

2013-08-01

58

Three climate cycles of millennial-scale vegetation change in Africa (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marine sediments can deliver long well-dated continuous sequences of environmental change, not only of the ocean but also of the continents. Vegetation records from these archives are often the only land-cover records to encompass several climate cycles. Comparing vegetation development during several cycles uncovers the structural and systematic differences between glacial and interglacial vegetation. Such data may help with the validation of the current earth system models including dynamic vegetation modules. A number of marine pollen records from the East Atlantic (ODP658, GIK16415, GIK16776, GIK16867, GeoB1016) and a new one from the Indian Ocean (MD96-2048) register the vegetation development in West and South Africa over a period of more than 300 thousand years covering at least three full glacial-interglacial cycles. From these dataset typical patterns of vegetation change in Africa are inferred and differences between cycles are discussed. Both latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in the vegetation have been recorded by pollen of e.g. Chenopods, Asteraceae (daisies), Ericaceae (heath), Podocarpus (yellow wood), Poaceae (grass), and lowland forest. While latitudinal shifts in the area of desert and savannah are typical in West Africa, altitudinal changes of the belt with mountainous forest and mountainous shrubs are more common in Southern Africa. During glacial times, vegetation includes ericaceous shrubs in Southern Africa, while desert shrubs expand in West Africa, and the area of the lowland forests is strongly reduced on the whole continent.

Dupont, L. M.

2010-12-01

59

Mars: History of Climate Change and Evolution of the Water Cycle (Runcorn-Florensky Medal Lecture)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atmospheric general circulation models are becoming more and more sophisticated and can now be analyzed at various scales, and include variations in atmospheric water vapor content, orbital parameters and surface properties. A wide variety of geological evidence indicates that the climate on Mars has changed during its past history. We are now approaching the time when synergism is developing between studies of the observed geological record and predictions and results of climate models. Geological evidence for climate change ranges in physical scale from layering in the polar caps and sediments, to meters-thick ice-rich layers extending from high to mid-latitudes, to kilometers-thick polar and circumpolar deposits. Clear temporal changes in the mineralogy and alteration style of surface and subsurface materials signal long-term climate change. Evidence is found throughout the geologic record of Mars, ranging from interpreted Amazonian tropical mountain glaciers to much longer term trends implied by the temporal distribution of geological features such as valley networks and outflow channels. Furthermore, there is strong evidence for changes in the hydrological cycle of Mars that reflect long-term climate change. For the last ~80% of its history (the Hesperian and Amazonian) Mars appears to have been a very cold, hyper-arid polar desert, similar to the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica. During this time, the hydrologic system on Mars has been horizontally layered, with the near-surface hydrologic cycle involving water movement between the atmosphere, polar caps, the surface and regolith at various latitudes; variations in spin-axis orbital parameters caused significant surface redistribution of ice and dust, and abundant ice has been sequestered beneath glacial debris-cover in the mid-latitudes for several hundred million years. Existing groundwater is sequestered below a globally continuous cryosphere; liquid water occasionally emerged to the surface during magmatic events that cracked or melted the cryosphere, forming outlet channels. In contrast, many believe that Mars was "warm and wet" during the first 20% of its history (the Noachian); in this scenario, there was no global cryosphere, and the hydrological cycle was vertically integrated. Geological evidence for this includes extensive valley network systems, hundreds of closed-basin and open-basin lakes, depositional fans and deltas, and integrated systems that extend for thousands of kilometers across the surface. Major outstanding questions include the causes and the duration of these more clement conditions in the Noachian, whether they led to the formation and evolution of life, why they changed in the late Noachian-Hesperian, the duration of the change, how the climate stabilized to its current state, whether any early-evolving life could survive this transition, and if so, where such life might reside today. The questions raised by the long-term climate history of Mars provide a compelling framework for future robotic and human exploration.

Head, James W.

2010-05-01

60

Climate Change Collection (CCC)  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Climate Change Collection (CCC) provides access to high quality, digital materials relating to natural and human induced climate change and variability, including scientific, economic and policy issues of climate change. The collection focuses on background resources and learning activities that communicate the principles that underlie climate change and variability, including the differences and links between weather and climate; the basics of the climate system including the greenhouse effect and energy balance; climatic processes that occur at varying time scales, including orbital cycles and forcing; how scientific research is conducted relative to measuring change and variability; and how human activities, including the combustion of fossil fuels and changes of land cover, impact the climate system. The resources have been reviewed for scientific accuracy and currency, and annotated with comments and suggestions relating to their potential value to Earth system science teachers and their students, particularly at the middle school level.

61

Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent studies have shown that changes in global mean precipitation are larger for solar forcing than for CO2 forcing of similar magnitude. In this paper, we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the differences originate from differing fast responses of the climate system. We estimate the adjusted radiative forcing and fast response using Hansen’s “fixed-SST forcing” method. Total climate system response is calculated using mixed layer simulations using the same model. Our analysis shows that the fast response is almost 40% of the total response for few key variables like precipitation and evaporation. We further demonstrate that the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the change in global mean precipitation per unit warming, is the same for the two forcings when the fast responses are excluded from the definition of hydrologic sensitivity, suggesting that the slow response (feedback) of the hydrological cycle is independent of the forcing mechanism. Based on our results, we recommend that the fast and slow response be compared separately in multi-model intercomparisons to discover and understand robust responses in hydrologic cycle. The significance of this study to geoengineering is discussed.

Bala, Govindasamy; Caldeira, K.; Nemani, R.

2010-08-01

62

Climatic Change, Wars and Dynastic Cycles in China Over the Last Millennium  

Microsoft Academic Search

In recent years, the phenomenon of global warming and its implications for the future of the human race have been intensively studied. In contrast, few quantitative studies have been attempted on the notable effects of past climatic changes upon human societies. This study explored the relationship between climatic change and war in China by comparing high-resolution paleo-climatic reconstructions with known

David D. Zhang; C. Y. Jim; George C-S Lin; Yuan-Qing He; James J. Wang; Harry F. Lee

2006-01-01

63

Northern Iberian abrupt climate change dynamics during the last glacial cycle: A view from lacustrine sediments  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We present a palaeoclimatic reconstruction of the last glacial cycle in Iberia (ca. 120,000-11,600 cal yrs BP) based on multi-proxy reconstructions from lake sediments with robust chronologies, and with a particular focus on abrupt climate changes. The selected lake sequences provide an integrated approach from northern Iberia exploring temperature conditions, humidity variations and land-sea comparisons during the most relevant climate transitions of the last glacial period. Thus, we present evidence that demonstrates: (i) cold but relatively humid conditions during the transition from MIS 5 to MIS 4, which prevailed until ca. 60,000 cal yrs BP in northern Iberia; (ii) a general tendency towards greater aridity during MIS 4 and MIS 3 (ca 60,000 to 23,500 cal yrs BP) punctuated by abrupt climate changes related to Heinrich Events (HE), (iii) a complex, highly variable climate during MIS 2 (23,500 to 14,600 cal yrs BP) with the "Mystery Interval" (MI: 18,500 to 14,600 cal yrs BP) and not the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 23,000 to 19,000 cal yrs BP) as the coldest and most arid period. The last glacial transition starts in synchrony with Greenland ice records at 14,600 cal yrs BP but the temperature increase was not so abrupt in the Iberian records and the highest humidity was attained during the Allerød (GI-1a to GI-1c) and not during the Bølling (GI-1e) period. The Younger Dryas event (GS-1) is discernible in northern Iberian lake records as a cold and dry interval, although Iberian vegetation records present a geographically variable signal for this interval, perhaps related to vegetation resilience.

Moreno, Ana; González-Sampériz, Penélope; Morellón, Mario; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.; Fletcher, William J.

2012-03-01

64

Biotic controls over the carbon cycle in dryland ecosystems under climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The majority of land types in the vast drylands of the globe are composed of spatially heterogeneous ecosystems, such as shrublands. These systems are ideally suited for studying biotic effects on the carbon cycle, considering that they are composed of a matrix of distinct vegetated microsites, such as shrubs and herbaceous patches among shrubs. Climate change in many drylands will result in drier conditions as a consequence of lower rain amounts and higher temperatures. Soil respiration (SR) is the greatest fraction of ecosystem respiration in shrublands, and, thus, largely controls the carbon balance in such systems. Because SR under shrubs is higher than SR in herbaceous patches, the decline in shrub cover with increasing drought under climate change could potentially be the main determining factor of the decrease in SR at the ecosystem scale. In an eastern Mediterranean region, shrub cover decreased linearly along a steep aridity gradient which served as a long-term climate-change proxy. However, biological activity as measured by SR and soil CO2 production decreased logarithmically and at a greater rate along the gradient, and this decrease occurred at the same rate both under and between shrubs. Therefore, the decrease in ecosystem-level SR following rainfall reduction is mainly driven by the decline in biological activity and less by the changed relative distribution of vegetation types. Plant biomass and cover represent essentially the activity of ephemerals in herbaceous patches. The decrease in organic carbon storage with increased aridity correlated with an exponential reduction in biomass production and a less pronounced reduction in the decay of organic matter. It appears that under drier conditions, less organic carbon is produced and this carbon is decomposed at a relatively high rate. Plant species composition in herbaceous patches changed along the gradient, which was associated with alterations in plant functional traits. Leaf nitrogen content (LNC) increased, while specific leaf area and plant size decreased with increasing aridity and declining SR and carbon storage. The trend in LNC might explain the relatively high decay rates of organic matter under drier conditions. Surrogates of biological activity can be used for projecting SR under climate change. Remotely-sensed vegetation cover in herbaceous patches was a better predictor of SR during the growing season than abiotic factors, including soil water content. However, the SR response to vegetation cover decreased with the reduction in rain amounts applied by climate-change manipulations. Therefore, plant cover needs to be combined with a measure of water availability to predict climate-change effects on SR. Over larger spatial and temporal scales, climate-change effects on biogeochemical processes may be projected by coupling microclimatic variables with vegetation-based factors, such as biomass, cover and plant functional traits.

Grünzweig, J. M.; Sternberg, M.

2012-04-01

65

The annual cycle of the climate change signal - An improved method for use in impact studies  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accurate runoff simulations for climate change scenarios are crucial for decision makers to establish appropriate response strategies for potentially increased risks of floods or low flow periods. An important step in such simulations is the downscaling of hydrometeorological information from a low-resolution climate model to a hydrological runoff model with the requirement of high spatial resolution. The "delta change method" combined with a spatial interpolation is a simple statistical downscaling method that has widely been used for this purpose. The delta change signal is defined as the mean difference or quotient of a variable (such as temperature or precipitation) between scenario and control periods. It is usually calculated for fixed monthly or seasonal periods, and the choice of these periods is to some extent arbitrary. Here we analyze the associated implications and present an alternative formulation. Specific consideration is given to the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation to the north of the Alps. To begin with, the delta change signal is derived using a moving window with a length of 90 days. Results reveal a noisy signal, on the grid point level but also in an aggregated domain along the northern Alpine ridge. This provides evidence that the average delta change signal for a specific month or season depends upon the partly arbitrary choice of the time window, as moving the averaging window by a few days substantially affects the amplitude of the delta change signal. We have developed a method to extract reliable information out of the noisy annual delta change signal produced by the moving average, which is based on spectral analysis. The reasoning behind this methodology is in principle applicable to other downscaling methods.

Bosshard, T.; Ewen, T.; Kotlarski, S.; Schär, C.

2009-04-01

66

Climate change and children.  

PubMed

Climate change is increasing the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes worldwide. Acting through increasing temperature, changes in the hydrologic cycle, and sea level rise, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events and extreme events (floods and droughts), change the geographic range and incidence of climate-sensitive vector-, food-, and waterborne diseases, and increase diseases associated with air pollution and aeroallergens. Children are particularly vulnerable to these health outcomes because of their potentially greater exposures, greater sensitivity to certain exposures, and their dependence on caregivers. PMID:17448357

Ebi, Kristie L; Paulson, Jerome A

2007-04-01

67

CHANGING CLIMATE, CHANGING MINDS: APPLYING THE LITERATURE ON MEDIA EFFECTS, PUBLIC OPINION, AND THE ISSUE-ATTENTION CYCLE TO INCREASE PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF CLIMATE CHANGE  

Microsoft Academic Search

While media coverage and public discourse on climate change have increased significantly in the U.S. in recent years, it is not clear that this communication has gone beyond political elites to inspire action among the mass public. This paper applies knowledge from 30 years of literature on media effects and public opinion to the issue of climate change, examining the

Susan McDonald

2009-01-01

68

Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Weather can change many times a day. Climate.the sum of weather.changes slowly, over decades and centuries, but it can change\\u000a abruptly with large volcanic eruptions, instabilities in ocean currents, or meteorite crashes. The dramatic 1815 Tambora eruption\\u000a spewed 100 km3 of ash, causing “a year without a summer” to cool Earth by 4°C. Cooling from volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols must

David Hafemeister

69

North Atlantic deepwater temperature change during late pliocene and late quaternary climatic cycles  

SciTech Connect

Variations in the ratio of magnesium to calcium (Mg/Ca) in fossil ostracodes from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 607 in the deep North Atlantic show that the change in bottom water temperature during late Pliocene 41,000-year obliquity cycles averaged 1.5{degrees}C between 3.2 and 2.8 million years ago (Ma) and increased to 2.3{degrees}C between 2.8 and 2.3 Ma, coincidentally with the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. During the last two 100,000-year glacial-to-interglacial climatic cycles of the Quaternary, bottom water temperatures changed by 4.5{degrees}C. These results show that glacial deepwater cooling has intensified since 3.2 Ma, most likely as the result of progressively diminished deepwater production in the North Atlantic and of the greater influence of Antarctic bottom water in the North Atlantic during glacial periods. The ostracode Mg/Ca data also allow the direct determination of the temperature component of the benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope record from Site 607, as well as derivation of a hypothetical sea-level curve for the late Pliocene and late Quaternary. The effects of dissolution on the Mg/Ca ratios of ostracode shells appear to have been minimal. 49 refs., 5 figs.

Dwyer, G.S.; Baker, P.A. [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States); Cronin, T.M. [Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States)] [and others

1995-11-24

70

Gimme shelter - the relative sensitivity of parasitic nematodes with direct and indirect life cycles to climate change.  

PubMed

Climate change is expected to alter the dynamics of host-parasite systems globally. One key element in developing predictive models for these impacts is the life cycle of the parasite. It is, for example, commonly assumed that parasites with an indirect life cycle would be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than parasites with a direct life cycle due to the greater chance that at least one of their obligate host species will go extinct. Here, we challenge this notion by contrasting parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle against those with an indirect life cycle. Specifically, we suggest that behavioral thermoregulation by the intermediate host may buffer the larvae of indirectly transmitted parasites against temperature extremes, and hence climate warming. We term this the 'shelter effect'. Formalizing each life cycle in a comprehensive model reveals a fitness advantage for the direct life cycle over the indirect life cycle at low temperatures, but the shelter effect reverses this advantage at high temperatures. When examined for seasonal environments, the models suggest that climate warming may in some regions create a temporal niche in mid-summer that excludes parasites with a direct life cycle, but allows parasites with an indirect life cycle to persist. These patterns are amplified if parasite larvae are able to manipulate their intermediate host to increase ingestion probability by definite hosts. Furthermore, our results suggest that exploiting the benefits of host sheltering may have aided the evolution of indirect life cycles. Our modeling framework utilizes the Metabolic Theory of Ecology to synthesize the complexities of host behavioral thermoregulation and its impacts on various temperature-dependent parasite life history components in a single measure of fitness, R0 . It allows quantitative predictions of climate change impacts, and is easily generalized to many host-parasite systems. PMID:23801641

Molnár, Péter K; Dobson, Andrew P; Kutz, Susan J

2013-09-11

71

Climatic change  

Microsoft Academic Search

But there are many reasons to question the wisdom of the Kyoto Protocol's approach to climate change policy, including questions about the scientific grounding of the protocol; questions about the feasibility of the proposed implementation mechanisms; questions about the efficacy of those measures; questions about the adverse consequences of diverting resources to address highly uncertain risks using tools with uncertain

Staffordshire County Council; Anthony J. Richardson; RICHARD MCCANN; HOWARD AYLESWORTH; MARY L. VIGILANTE

1974-01-01

72

Sulfate-Reducing Microorganisms in Wetlands - Fameless Actors in Carbon Cycling and Climate Change  

PubMed Central

Freshwater wetlands are a major source of the greenhouse gas methane but at the same time can function as carbon sink. Their response to global warming and environmental pollution is one of the largest unknowns in the upcoming decades to centuries. In this review, we highlight the role of sulfate-reducing microorganisms (SRM) in the intertwined element cycles of wetlands. Although regarded primarily as methanogenic environments, biogeochemical studies have revealed a previously hidden sulfur cycle in wetlands that can sustain rapid renewal of the small standing pools of sulfate. Thus, dissimilatory sulfate reduction, which frequently occurs at rates comparable to marine surface sediments, can contribute up to 36–50% to anaerobic carbon mineralization in these ecosystems. Since sulfate reduction is thermodynamically favored relative to fermentative processes and methanogenesis, it effectively decreases gross methane production thereby mitigating the flux of methane to the atmosphere. However, very little is known about wetland SRM. Molecular analyses using dsrAB [encoding subunit A and B of the dissimilatory (bi)sulfite reductase] as marker genes demonstrated that members of novel phylogenetic lineages, which are unrelated to recognized SRM, dominate dsrAB richness and, if tested, are also abundant among the dsrAB-containing wetland microbiota. These discoveries point toward the existence of so far unknown SRM that are an important part of the autochthonous wetland microbiota. In addition to these numerically dominant microorganisms, a recent stable isotope probing study of SRM in a German peatland indicated that rare biosphere members might be highly active in situ and have a considerable stake in wetland sulfate reduction. The hidden sulfur cycle in wetlands and the fact that wetland SRM are not well represented by described SRM species explains their so far neglected role as important actors in carbon cycling and climate change.

Pester, Michael; Knorr, Klaus-Holger; Friedrich, Michael W.; Wagner, Michael; Loy, Alexander

2012-01-01

73

Bedrock displacements in Greenland manifest ice mass variations, climate cycles and climate change.  

PubMed

The Greenland GPS Network (GNET) uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to measure the displacement of bedrock exposed near the margins of the Greenland ice sheet. The entire network is uplifting in response to past and present-day changes in ice mass. Crustal displacement is largely accounted for by an annual oscillation superimposed on a sustained trend. The oscillation is driven by earth's elastic response to seasonal variations in ice mass and air mass (i.e., atmospheric pressure). Observed vertical velocities are higher and often much higher than predicted rates of postglacial rebound (PGR), implying that uplift is usually dominated by the solid earth's instantaneous elastic response to contemporary losses in ice mass rather than PGR. Superimposed on longer-term trends, an anomalous 'pulse' of uplift accumulated at many GNET stations during an approximate six-month period in 2010. This anomalous uplift is spatially correlated with the 2010 melting day anomaly. PMID:22786931

Bevis, Michael; Wahr, John; Khan, Shfaqat A; Madsen, Finn Bo; Brown, Abel; Willis, Michael; Kendrick, Eric; Knudsen, Per; Box, Jason E; van Dam, Tonie; Caccamise, Dana J; Johns, Bjorn; Nylen, Thomas; Abbott, Robin; White, Seth; Miner, Jeremy; Forsberg, Rene; Zhou, Hao; Wang, Jian; Wilson, Terry; Bromwich, David; Francis, Olivier

2012-07-11

74

The tropical Pacific climate response to the changing forcing over the last glacial cycle  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The response of the tropical Pacific to orbital forcing is poorly understood. This is the result of the relative complexity of modelling the tropical climate which requires full complexity global models. Such full complexity models do not, however, lend themselves to long integrations over orbital time scales due to the vast computer resources needed. Some studies have shown how the mean state and interannual variability (ENSO) vary with changes in orbital forcing but the results are conflicting and the models used have serious short comings. We present results from a series of integrations over the last 120 thousand years of a full complexity GCM, HadCM3, which contains all the processes that could change the mean state and ENSO on long and short timescales. These runs, the first of their kind using a full complexity model, overcome some of the flaws in the previous studies. We show results from a suite of model simulations, run as a series of snapshots over the last 120 thousand years that not only vary the orbital forcing but also greenhouse gas forcing and the presence of northern Hemisphere ice sheets. These are varied in three sets of simulations that vary the orbital forcing alone, the orbital and greenhouse gas forcing and all the forcings together. With these three sets of experiments we can unravel how the tropical Pacific climate varies over the glacial cycle. We show that when the orbital forcing alone is varied, the annual mean temperature and ENSO vary on precessional timescales. Although this is in agreement with previous studies, we do not find that the previously proposed dynamical thermostat mechanism is responsible for the change in the full complexity model. We find that the effect of greenhouse gases on the annual mean temperature dwarves the effect of orbital variations but that ENSO variability is once again paced with the precessional cycle. The presence of ice sheets has little impact on the annual mean temperature in the tropics but causes a dramatic increase in the variability of ENSO.

Roberts, W. H. G.; Valdes, P. J.

2012-04-01

75

Environmental and climatic changes during Valanginian (Early Cretaceous) perturbations of the carbon cycle  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

After a long-lasting period of relatively stable conditions during the late Jurassic to earliest Cretaceous, the Valanginian was a time of climatic and environmental perturbations. Proposed changes include fluctuations in atmospheric pCO2, an accelerated hydrologic cycling, a cooling phase, and changes in composition and abundances of the marine fauna. A prominent perturbation of the global carbon cycle is documented in a globally recorded positive ?13C shift. Widespread storage of Corg-rich sediments in ocean basins, probably accompanied by anoxic conditions has long been supposed to explain for the positive carbon isotope anomaly. However, no widespread deposition of black shales has been shown for the Valanginian. Research on the Valanginian carbon cycle has focused on marine environmental changes, while studies on continental archives are scarce. This study deals with stable isotope chemostratigraphy, spore-pollen assemblages, palynofacies, and organic geochemistry of two successions located in the northwestern Tethyan realm (Vocontian Basin, SE France) and the Carpathian seaway (Polish Trough, central Poland). For both sites no evidence for anoxic conditions in the form of the occurrence of specific biomarkers like isoreniratene are found. Spore-pollen assemblages from both localities show many similarities in terms of composition, diversity and abundances of taxa. Both are dominated by conifer pollen and fern spores. During the initial phase of the ?13C shift the palynological compositions of both sites are quite diverging. Here, the French site is characterized by a decrease in spore abundances not being observed for the Polish site. This is followed by a peak in fern spores for both sites. Bulk Corg and algal-derived pristane and phytane follow the positive isotope shift of Ccarb with a lead of ~200 kyrs. Land plant derived long chain C27 n-alkanes for the Vocontian Basin as well show this positive shift while for the site at the Carpathian seaway the coeval shift is negative. PCO2 reconstructions based on the ?? record point to an increase in atmospheric pCO2 for this time interval. Results are interpreted to reflect an increase in aridity at the French site, whereas conditions become more humid in the hinterland of the Carpathian seaway during the initiation of the carbon cycle perturbation. This would explain for diverging compositions of vegetation and the negative shift in C27 n-alkanes of the Polish site, since an increase in humidity enhances discrimination in land plants and therewith the amount of implemented 12C. The subsequent peak in fern spores may point to supra-regional hostile conditions favoring massive appearance of fern plants, coinciding with pCO2 drawdown, arid conditions, and the initiation of a cooling phase during the plateau-phase of the carbon isotope excursion. Results point to an important role of continental environments during the complex pattern of environmental and climatic changes accompanying and/or causing the Valanginian carbon isotope anomaly.

Kujau, A.; Heimhofer, U.; Hochuli, P. A.; Schouten, S.; Thierry, A.; Morales, C.; Mutterlose, J.

2011-12-01

76

The water cycle in context: Another time series view on climate variability and change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A time series study is presented that pinpoints the potential of a constitutive role in the climate system's dynamics of major elements of the global hydrologic cycle (analysis period 1870-1997). Major source regions and mechanisms of the latter include tropic/subtropical systems, notably the monsoons and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Onset, retreat, and seasonal precipitation data over India of the South Asian seasonal monsoon systems are posed into perspective with the evolution of the climate system, as exemplified by insolation, surface air and sea surface temperatures, as well as dynamic indices of the North Atlantic and the Tropical Pacific. Synchronized motions galore are found when looking at these data through the glasses of a matching pursuit approach that admits of deep frequency modulation. The results are suggestive of a dynamically excited atmospheric branch of the hydrologic cycle, at the very core of global climate dynamics.

Carl, P.

2009-04-01

77

Climate Change Terms  

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate ChangeClimate change refers to any significant change in the measures of climate lasting for an extended period of time. In other words, climate change includes major changes in temperature, precipitation, or wind patterns, among others, that occur over several decades or longer.   From Climate Change Terms  -  Search all glossaries for terms containing "climate change"

2011-04-20

78

On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle  

Microsoft Academic Search

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at\\u000a the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation\\u000a are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the\\u000a past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and

P. D. Williams; E. Guilyardi; R. T. Sutton; J. M. Gregory; G. Madec

2006-01-01

79

The Impact of Climate Change and Feedback Processes on the Ocean Carbon Cycle  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a We have been aware of the concept of global climate change since the advent of modern science in the 17th Century and the emergence of disciplines such as geology. However, it is only in the last century that a putative link, termed\\u000a the ‘the Greenhouse Effect’ (Wood 1909), has been suggested between the atmospheric concentrations of particular gases and climate.

Philip W. Boyd; Scott C. Doney

80

Impact of Climate Change on the Water Cycle and Nutrient Losses in a Finnish Catchment  

Microsoft Academic Search

Changes in climate, either long or short-term changes, can alter significantly the hydrological behavior of catchments. A statistical analysis of a thirty-four year time series of meteorological data collected in the Vantaanjoki watershed (Southern Finland) shows an increase in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model SWAT was applied to the Vantaanjoki watershed in order to assess the impact of the

F. Bouraoui; B. Grizzetti; K. Granlund; S. Rekolainen; G. Bidoglio

2004-01-01

81

Sedimentary cycles related to the late Palaeozoic cold-warm climate change, Talchir Formation, Talchir Basin, India  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attributes of sedimentary facies within Permo-Carboniferous Talchir Formation (Gondwana Supergroup), Talchir Basin, India, attest to sedimentation under glaciomarine setting. Facies architecture reveals three sedimentary cycles of distinct orders. Cycle-1 sediments are 10s of m thick and are represented by repeated occurrences of glacigenic/reworked-glacigenic sediments followed by storm-reworked glacial outwash deposits. Juxtaposition of multiple Cycle-1 sequences indicate repeated ice-front advance-retreats related to climatic fluctuations, which led to accumulation of glacier-laden coarse-grained sediments, and subsequent flooding by marine storm surges. Cm-thin sandstone-mudstone interbeds of Cycle-2 belong within the Cycle-1 sequences and represent deposition from episodic storm surges. Mm-thin Cycle-3 sediments occur within the Cycle-2 sequences and attribute their genesis to semi-diurnal tidal fluctuations. Open marine storm surges have reworked these tidal sediments. In absence of major tectonic influences, the studied sedimentary cycles and associated palaeogeographic changes in the ice-marginal Talchir marine basin bear direct relation to late Palaeozoic cold-warm climatic transitions.

Bhattacharya, Biplab

2013-06-01

82

Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We investigate future (2045-2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (?1800 km2) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990-1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045-2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

Groppelli, B.; Soncini, A.; Bocchiola, D.; Rosso, R.

2011-06-01

83

Acclimation of Leaf Respiration to Temperature Change and Implications for Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks  

Microsoft Academic Search

Leaf maintenance respiration is known to increase in response to an increase in temperature. This knowledge has led to a variety of predictions that leaf and plant respiration will increase in response to the warmer temperatures of a future world of higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This expectation has implications for climate change itself. Higher leaf respiration with warmer temperatures could

A. W. King; C. A. Gunderson; D. Weston; S. D. Wullschleger

2005-01-01

84

Mars: History of Climate Change and Evolution of the Water Cycle (Runcorn-Florensky Medal Lecture)  

Microsoft Academic Search

Atmospheric general circulation models are becoming more and more sophisticated and can now be analyzed at various scales, and include variations in atmospheric water vapor content, orbital parameters and surface properties. A wide variety of geological evidence indicates that the climate on Mars has changed during its past history. We are now approaching the time when synergism is developing between

James W. Head

2010-01-01

85

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: RESPONSES AND FEEDBACKS FROM BELOW-GROUND SYSTEMS  

EPA Science Inventory

According to most global climate models, a continued build-up of OC2 and other greenhouse gases will lead to significant changes in temperature and precipitation patterns over large parts of the Earth. elow-ground processes will strongly influence the response of the biosphere to...

86

How robust are responses of carbon-nitrogen cycle models to increasing atmospheric [CO2] and climatic changes?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A number of recent studies have demonstrated the importance of considering nitrogen dynamics for projecting the responses to the terrestrial carbon cycle to increasing atmospheric [CO2] and climatic changes [1-4]. However, there are considerable differences in the global and regional responses of individual models concerning the strength and even the sign of the effect of N dynamics of the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, the implications of alternative hypotheses on key nitrogen cycle characteristics that determine vegetation responses are tested to assess the reliability of the modelled responses. For this purpose, the terrestrial biosphere model O-CN model, derived from the land-surface scheme ORCHIDEE of the IPSL Earth system model, is used in different configurations, namely the elasticity of the plant's C:N stoichiometry, and the capacity of vegetation to increase biological nitrogen fixation as a function of N demand and C excess. The alternative hypotheses result in substantially different projected land C storage by the year 2100. However, they do not prevent i) that there is a significant reduction of the net land C storage resulting from CO2 fertilisation compared to the model version not accounting for terrestrial N dynamics; and ii) that on the global scale the limiting effect of N dynamics on the CO2 fertilisation response is stronger than the stimulating effect of increased N release from soil organic matter decomposition in a future warmer climate. References: 1. Sokolov, A.P., et al., Consequences of considering carbon-nitrogen interactions on the feedbacks between climate and the terrestrial carbon cycle. Journal of Climate, 2008. 21(15): p. 3776-3796. 2. Jain, A., et al., Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2009. 23: p. GB4028, doi:10.1029/2009GB003519. 3. Thornton, P.E., et al., Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Biogeosciences, 2009. 6: p. 2099-2120. 4. Zaehle, S., P. Friedlingstein, and A. Friend, Terrestrial nitrogen feedbacks may accelerate future climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 2010. 37: p. L01401, doi:10.1029/2009GL041345.

Zaehle, Sönke; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Friend, Andrew D.

2010-05-01

87

Sensitivity of the Carbon Cycle in the Arctic to Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The recent warming in high latitudes is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human\\/cultural systems in this region. Some of these changes may be irreversible on century time scales, and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle in northern high latitude regions is a major concern. The release

A. D. McGuire; L. Anderson; T. R. Christensen; S. Dallimore; L. Guo; D. Hayes; M. Heimann; T. Lorenson; R. MacDonald; N. Roulet

2007-01-01

88

Environmental magnetism and climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

A major and pressing problem is to understand how, and how fast, the Earth's climate has changed in the past, with and without human influences on the global carbon cycle. Magnetic, remanence-acquiring, minerals, mostly iron oxides and sulphides, occur ubiquitously in sediments. They can act as sensitive recorders of past climates, because as climate has varied (from glacial to interglacial,

Barbara A. Maher

2007-01-01

89

Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Thawing permafrost and the resulting microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. In this article we present an overview of the global permafrost C pool and of the processes that might transfer this C into the atmosphere, as well as the associated ecosystem changes that occur with thawing. We show that accounting for C stored deep in the permafrost more than doubles previous high-latitude inventory estimates, with this new estimate equivalent to twice the atmospheric C pool. The thawing of permafrost with warming occurs both gradually and catastrophically, exposing organic C to microbial decomposition. Other aspects of ecosystem dynamics can be altered by climate change along with thawing permafrost, such as growing season length, plant growth rates and species composition, and ecosystem energy exchange. However, these processes do not appear to be able to compensate for C release from thawing permafrost, making it likely that the net effect of widespread permafrost thawing will be a positive feedback to a warming climate.

Edward A. G. Schuur (University of Florida;)

2008-09-01

90

Climate induced thermocline change has an effect on the methyl mercury cycle in small boreal lakes.  

PubMed

We conducted a whole-lake experiment by manipulating the stratification pattern (thermocline depth) of a small polyhumic, boreal lake (Halsjärvi) in southern Finland and studying the impacts on lake mercury chemistry. The experimental lake was compared to a nearby reference site (Valkea-Kotinen Lake). During the first phase of the experiment the thermocline of Halsjärvi was lowered in order to simulate the estimated increase in wind speed and in total lake heat content (high-change climate scenario). The rate of methyl mercury (MeHg) production during summer stagnation (May-August) was calculated from water profiles before the treatment (2004), during treatment (2005, 2006) and after treatment (2007). We also calculated fluxes of MeHg from the epilimnion and from the hypolimnion to the sediments using sediment traps. Experimental mixing with a submerged propeller caused a 1.5-2 m deepening of the thermocline and oxycline. Methyl mercury production occurred mostly in the oxygen free layers in both lakes. In the experimental lake there was no net increase in MeHg during the experiment and following year; whereas the reference lake showed net production for all years. We conclude that the new exposed epilimnetic sediments caused by a lowering of the thermocline were a major sink for MeHg in the epilimnion. The results demonstrate that in-lake MeHg production can be manipulated in small lakes with anoxic hypolimnia during summer. The climate change induced changes in small boreal lakes most probably affect methyl mercury production and depend on the lake characteristics and stratification pattern. The results support the hypothesis that possible oxygen related changes caused by climate change are more important than possible temperature changes in small polyhumic lakes with regularly occurring oxygen deficiency in the hypolimnion. PMID:20595057

Verta, Matti; Salo, Simo; Korhonen, Markku; Porvari, Petri; Paloheimo, Anna; Munthe, John

2010-08-01

91

North Atlantic Deepwater Temperature Change During Late Pliocene and Late Quaternary Climatic Cycles  

Microsoft Academic Search

Variations in the ratio of magnesium to calcium (Mg\\/Ca) in fossil ostracodes from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 607 in the deep North Atlantic show that the change in bottom water temperature during late Pliocene 41,000-year obliquity cycles averaged 1.5^circC between 3.2 and 2.8 million years ago (Ma) and increased to 2.3^circC between 2.8 and 2.3 Ma, coincidentally with the

Gary S. Dwyer; Thomas M. Cronin; Paul A. Baker; Maureen E. Raymo; Jeffrey S. Buzas; Thierry Correge

1995-01-01

92

North Atlantic deepwater temperature change during late pliocene and late quaternary climatic cycles  

Microsoft Academic Search

Variations in the ratio of magnesium to calcium (Mg\\/Ca) in fossil ostracodes from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 607 in the deep North Atlantic show that the change in bottom water temperature during late Pliocene 41,000-year obliquity cycles averaged 1.5°C between 3.2 and 2.8 million years ago (Ma) and increased to 2.3°C between 2.8 and 2.3 Ma, coincidentally with the

G. S. Dwyer; P. A. Baker; T. M. Cronin; M. E. Raymo; J. S. Buzas

1995-01-01

93

Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing the response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies.  

PubMed

As ectothermic organisms, butterflies have widely been used as models to explore the predicted impacts of climate change. However, most studies explore only one life stage; to our best knowledge, none have integrated the impact of temperature on the vital rates of all life stages for a species of conservation concern. Besides, most population viability analysis models for butterflies are based on yearly population growth rate, precluding the implementation and assessment of important climate change scenarios, where climate change occurs mainly, or differently, during some seasons. Here, we used a combination of laboratory and field experiments to quantify the impact of temperature on all life stages of a vulnerable glacial relict butterfly. Next, we integrated these impacts into an overall population response using a deterministic periodic matrix model and explored the impact of several climate change scenarios. Temperature positively affected egg, pre-diapause larva and pupal survival, and the number of eggs laid by a female; only the survival of overwintering larva was negatively affected by an increase in temperature. Despite the positive impact of warming on many life stages, population viability was reduced under all scenarios, with predictions of much shorter times to extinction than under the baseline (current temperature situation) scenario. Indeed, model predictions were the most sensitive to changes in survival of overwintering larva, the only stage negatively affected by warming. A proper consideration of every stage of the life cycle is important when designing conservation guidelines in the light of climate change. This is in line with the resource-based habitat view, which explicitly refers to the habitat as a collection of resources needed for all life stages of the species. We, therefore, encourage adopting a resource-based habitat view for population viability analysis and development of conservation guidelines for butterflies, and more generally, other organisms. Life stages that are cryptic or difficult to study should not be forsaken as they may be key determinants in the overall response to climate change, as we found with overwintering Boloria eunomia larvae. PMID:22924795

Radchuk, Viktoriia; Turlure, Camille; Schtickzelle, Nicolas

2012-08-24

94

Climatic Change and Climate Control.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The heat balance method together with certain other methods of theoretical climatology for investigating the laws of natural climatic changes and for determining the possibility of controlling such changes is discussed.

M. I. Budyko

1964-01-01

95

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle.  

PubMed

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget. PMID:23955228

Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Ciais, Philippe; Frank, Dorothea; Mahecha, Miguel D; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Zscheischler, Jakob; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Frank, David C; Papale, Dario; Rammig, Anja; Smith, Pete; Thonicke, Kirsten; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin

2013-08-15

96

Summary of recent climate change studies on the carbon and nitrogen cycles in the terrestrial ecosystem and ocean in China  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This article reviews recent advances over the past 4 years in the study of the carbon-nitrogen cycling and their relationship to climate change in China. The net carbon sink in the Chinese terrestrial ecosystem was 0.19-0.26 Pg C yr-1 for the 1980s and 1990s. Both natural wetlands and the rice-paddy regions emitted 1.76 Tg and 6.62 Tg of CH4 per year for the periods 1995-2004 and 2005-2009, respectively. China emitted ˜1.1 Tg N2O-N yr-1 to the atmosphere in 2004. Land soil contained ˜8.3 Pg N. The excess nitrogen stored in farmland of the Yangtze River basin reached 1.51 Tg N and 2.67 Tg N in 1980 and 1990, respectively. The outer Yangtze Estuary served as a moderate or significant sink of atmospheric CO2 except in autumn. Phytoplankton could take up carbon at a rate of 6.4×1011 kg yr-1 in the China Sea. The global ocean absorbed anthropogenic CO2 at the rates of 1.64 and 1.73 Pg C yr-1 for two simulations in the 1990s. Land net ecosystem production in China would increase until the mid-21st century then would decrease gradually under future climate change scenarios. This research should be strengthened in the future, including collection of more observation data, measurement of the soil organic carbon (SOC) loss and sequestration, evaluation of changes in SOC in deep soil layers, and the impacts of grassland management, carbon-nitrogen coupled effects, and development and improvement of various component models and of the coupled carbon cycle-climate model.

Xu, Yongfu; Huang, Yao; Li, Yangchun

2012-09-01

97

Milankovitch climate cycles in ODP wireline logs  

Microsoft Academic Search

Orbitally induced climatic rhythms can cause cyclical variations in the physical properties or mineralogy of deep-sea sediments. Regional variations in the climatic factors controlling sedimentation (e.g., rainfall, temperature, or current patterns) are likely to cause regional variations in the mineralogic signature of Milankovitch orbital cycles. Downhold geophysical logs, routinely recorded during ODP, continuously sample changes in sediment properties and mineralogy

R. D. Jarrard; X. Golovchenko

1988-01-01

98

Trophic Interaction Cycles in Tundra Ecosystems and the Impact of Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

While population cycles are geographically widespread, it is on arctic tundra that such cycles appear to be most influential for the functioning of the whole ecosystem. We give an overview of tundra species that exhibit population cycles and describe what are currently believed to be the causal mechanisms. Population cycles most likely originate from trophic interactions within the plant-based tundra

ROLF A. IMS; EVA FUGLEI

2005-01-01

99

Expansion of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States: Implications for the hydrologic cycle under climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To meet emerging bioenergy demands, significant areas of the large-scale agricultural landscape of the Midwestern United States could be converted to 2nd generation bioenergy crops such as miscanthus and switchgrass. Their high biomass productivity in a longer growing season linked tightly to water use highlight the potential for significant impact on the hydrologic cycle in the region. This issue is further exacerbated by the uncertainty in the response of the vegetation under elevated CO2 and temperature. We use a mechanistic multilayer canopy-root-soil model to (i) capture the eco-physiological acclimations of bioenergy crops under climate change, and (ii) predict how hydrologic fluxes are likely to be altered from their current magnitudes. Observed data and Monte Carlo simulations of weather for recent past and future scenarios are used to characterize the variability range of the predictions. Under present weather conditions, miscanthus and switchgrass utilized more water than maize for total seasonal evapotranspiration by approximately 58% and 36%, respectively. Projected higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (550 ppm) is likely to decrease water used for evapotranspiration of miscanthus, switchgrass, and maize by 12%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. However, when climate change with projected increases in air temperature and reduced summer rainfall are also considered, there is a net increase in evapotranspiration for all crops, leading to significant reduction in soil-moisture storage and specific surface runoff. These results highlight the critical role of the warming climate in potentially altering the water cycle in the region under extensive conversion of existing maize cropping to support bioenergy demand.

Le, P. V.; Kumar, P.; Drewry, D. T.

2011-12-01

100

Implications for the hydrologic cycle under climate change due to the expansion of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States.  

PubMed

To meet emerging bioenergy demands, significant areas of the large-scale agricultural landscape of the Midwestern United States could be converted to second generation bioenergy crops such as miscanthus and switchgrass. The high biomass productivity of bioenergy crops in a longer growing season linked tightly to water use highlight the potential for significant impact on the hydrologic cycle in the region. This issue is further exacerbated by the uncertainty in the response of the vegetation under elevated CO(2) and temperature. We use a mechanistic multilayer canopy-root-soil model to (i) capture the eco-physiological acclimations of bioenergy crops under climate change, and (ii) predict how hydrologic fluxes are likely to be altered from their current magnitudes. Observed data and Monte Carlo simulations of weather for recent past and future scenarios are used to characterize the variability range of the predictions. Under present weather conditions, miscanthus and switchgrass utilized more water than maize for total seasonal evapotranspiration by approximately 58% and 36%, respectively. Projected higher concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) (550 ppm) is likely to decrease water used for evapotranspiration of miscanthus, switchgrass, and maize by 12%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. However, when climate change with projected increases in air temperature and reduced summer rainfall are also considered, there is a net increase in evapotranspiration for all crops, leading to significant reduction in soil-moisture storage and specific surface runoff. These results highlight the critical role of the warming climate in potentially altering the water cycle in the region under extensive conversion of existing maize cropping to support bioenergy demand. PMID:21876137

Le, Phong V V; Kumar, Praveen; Drewry, Darren T

2011-08-29

101

Climate Change and Biogeochemical Cycling in Green Lakes Valley, Colorado Front Range, USA  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpine ecosystems are particularly susceptible to disturbance due to their short growing seasons, sparse vegetation, thin soils, and a harsh climate. Warming temperatures and atmospheric nitrogen deposition, two drivers of global change, are currently affecting the Green Lakes Valley within the Colorado Front Range. At the top of Green Lakes Valley is Arikaree glacier, a 9 ha cirque glacier which has steady decreased in size since 2000. The watershed continues to receive elevated amounts of nitrogen deposition; however the atmospheric flux of inorganic nitrogen has decreased by 0.56 kg ha-1yr-1 since 2000, due to several years of low rainfall. Despite this decrease N deposition, the alpine watershed’s yield of nitrate has increased by 40% over the same time period relative to 1990-1999, at an approximate rate of 0.47 kg ha-1yr-1 since 2000. Concurrent with increases in nitrate were large increases in sulfate (1.13 kg ha-1yr-1), calcium (0.63 kg ha-1yr-1) and silica (0.22 kg ha-1yr-1) yields. The source of these increased yields appears to be meltwater from Arikaree and thawing permafrost. Mass balance models indicate that high ammonium loads within Arikaree’s meltwater are rapidly nitrified; contributing approximately 0.45 kg yr-1 to the NO3- flux within the upper reaches of the watershed. The chemistry of melting permafrost (as indicated by rock glacial meltwater) is rich in geochemical weathering products suggesting that it is the source of increased sulfate, calcium, and silica as well as providing sustained water contributions late into the growing season. Downstream within the subalpine, there was no increase in nitrate yield and relatively small increases in weathering products, suggesting that the subalpine serves as a sink for excess nitrogen and weathering products. Finally, there were no long term increases in nitrate, sulfate, silica, or calcium at a nearby watershed devoid of glacial and permafrost features; providing further evidence that the chemical signatures observed within the Green Lake watersheds are likely the result of cryospheric melt exposing barren soils to biological and geochemical processes. These findings confound emissions policies and associated water quality improvement efforts, as climate change and associated cryospheric melt may affect affect alpine NO3- concentrations as much, or more than atmospheric deposition trends.

Barnes, R. T.; Parman, J.; Williams, M. W.

2010-12-01

102

Climate Change: Basic Information  

MedlinePLUS

... change is happening now. Learn More What are climate change and global warming? Global warming refers to the ... effects, that occur over several decades or longer. Climate change is happening Our Earth is warming. Earth's average ...

103

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Feedback to Climate Warming: Experimental Evidence  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global climate modeling has demonstrated that climate warming would stimulate respiratory CO2 release from the terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, which in turn leads to more warming in the climate system. This positive feedback between the climate change and the terrestrial carbon cycle can form a vicious cycle that potentially leads to a dangerous threat to ecosystem functioning and service.

Y. Luo; X. Zhou; R. Sherry

2006-01-01

104

Potential climate change impacts on microbial distribution and carbon cycling in the Australian Southern Ocean  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changes in oceanic circulation and physiochemical parameters due to climate change may alter the distribution, structure and function of marine microbial communities, thereby altering the action of the biological carbon pump. One area of current and predicted future change is the sub-Antarctic zone (SAZ) to the southeast of Tasmania, Australia, where a southward shift in westerly winds appears to be forcing warmer and macronutrient-poor subtropical waters into the sub-Antarctic zone (SAZ). We investigated the impact of these subtropical waters on the microbial community of the SAZ on the SAZ-Sense cruise during the austral summer of 2007. The abundance of pico- and nanoeukaryotic algae, cyanobacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, bacteria and viruses was determined by flow cytometry at stations in the Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ), the SAZ and in Subtropical Zone (STZ). Using cluster and similarity profile analyses on integrated microbial abundances over the top 200 m, we found that microbial communities located in the potential future SAZ to the southeast of Tasmania formed two distinct groups from those of the remainder of the SAZ and the PFZ. In the waters of the potential future SAZ, shallow mixed layers and increased iron concentrations elevated cyanobacterial, bacterial and viral abundances and increased percentage high DNA bacteria, resulting in communities similar to those of subtropical waters. Conversely, waters of the PFZ exhibited relatively low concentrations of autotrophic and heterotrophic microbes and viruses, indicative of the iron limitation in this region. A Distance Based Linear Model determined that salinity and nitrogen availability (nitrate, nitrite and ammonia concentrations) were the most influential environmental parameters over the survey, explaining 72% of the variation in microbial community structure. The microbial community of the potential future SAZ showed a shift away from particulate carbon export from the photic zone towards increased production by smaller cells, increased significance of the microbial loop and viral lysis. These changes would promote carbon recycling within the photic zone, thereby potentially decreasing the capacity of the future SAZ to absorb CO2.

Evans, Claire; Thomson, Paul G.; Davidson, Andrew T.; Bowie, Andrew R.; van den Enden, Rick; Witte, Harry; Brussaard, Corina P. D.

2011-11-01

105

Climate Change Policy  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues.

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan

1997-11-01

106

Assessment of climate change effects on water and carbon cycling and habitat change in the Yukon River Basin: Piloting a National Strategy (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent hydrologic investigations conducted in the Yukon River Basin indicate shifts in the timing and source of water and carbon exports by the Yukon River to the Bering Sea. Much of the observed change can be attributed to permafrost thaw and increased infiltration; factors that also affect surface water extent and chemistry, vegetation and habitat composition and condition, biogeochemical cycling, and energy balance. Consequently, USGS has initiated a comprehensive interdisciplinary investigation of processes controlling water and carbon cycling and export in the Yukon Flats region of interior Alaska, an important area for waterfowl and wildlife that is considered to be particularly prone to permafrost thaw and concomitant changes in water availability and distribution. The investigation integrates biological, chemical, geological, hydrological, meteorological, modeling and remote sensing studies by USGS, USFWS, universities and others, in collaboration with Alaska native volunteers, to determine climate change effects on water and carbon cycling of the region. Results of the intensive field and modeling studies will have transfer value to other similar regions of the Yukon Basin and other subarctic regions and will provide a foundation for scaling to a larger basin wide assessment. The Yukon River Basin initiative is the pilot of a national program for establishing climate related collaborative observation, research, and decision support strategies by the Department of Interior.

Murdoch, P. S.; Striegl, R. G.

2009-12-01

107

Life-cycle assessment of electricity generation systems and applications for climate change policy analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

This research uses Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) to better understand the energy and environmental performance for two electricity generation systems, a 620 MW combined-cycle natural gas plant, and an 8kW building-integrated photovoltaic system. The results of the LCA are used to provide an effective and accurate means for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies for U.S. electricity generation. The modern combined-cycle

Paul Joseph Meier

2002-01-01

108

Dating martian climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geological evidence indicates that low-latitude polygonally-patterned grounds on Mars, generally thought to be the product of flood volcanism, are periglacial in nature and record a complex signal of changing climate. By studying the martian surface stratigraphically (in terms of the geometrical relations between surface landforms and the substrate) rather than genetically (by form analogy with Earth), we have identified dynamic surfaces across one-fifth of martian longitude. New stratigraphical observations in the Elysium-Amazonis plains have revealed a progressive surface polygonisation that is destructive of impact craters across the region. This activity is comparable to the climatically-driven degradation of periglacial landscapes on Earth, but because it affects impact craters—the martian chronometer—it can be dated. Here, we show that it is possible to directly date this activity based on the fraction of impact craters affected by polygon formation. Nearly 100% of craters (of all diameters) are superposed by polygonal sculpture: considering the few-100 Ma age of the substrate, this suggests that the process of polygon formation was active within the last few million years. Surface polygonisation in this region, often considered to be one of the signs of young, 'plains-forming' volcanism on Mars, is instead shown to postdate the majority of impact craters seen. We therefore conclude that it is post-depositional in origin and an artefact of thermal cycling of near-surface ground ice. Stratigraphically-controlled crater counts present the first way of dating climate change on a planet other than Earth: a record that may tell us something about climate change on our own planet. Parallel climate change on these two worlds—an ice age Mars coincident with Earth's glacial Quaternary period—might suggest a coupled system linking both. We have previously been unable to generalise about the causes of long-term climate change based on a single terrestrial example—with the beginnings of a chronology for climate change on our nearest planetary neighbour, we can.

Page, David P.; Balme, Matthew R.; Grady, Monica M.

2009-10-01

109

The role of the hydrological cycle and the ocean`s thermohaline circulation in climate change: A multicomponent climate model study. Ph.D. Thesis  

SciTech Connect

Global ocean-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere-continental ice sheet models are developed to address the question of feedbacks between the hydrological cycle and the global thermohaline circulation capable of explaining the climate changes seen in paleoclimate records of the late Pleistocene and the last deglaciation. The ocean-atmosphere model climate system displays two distinct stable equilibria controlled by latitudinal water vapor transport and the net flux of water vapor from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. If the inter-basin transport is sufficiently large, small changes in water vapor transport over the North Atlantic can effect bifurcation; maximum difference between the modes occurs in the North Atlantic. If the inter-basin transport is from the Pacific to the Atlantic and sufficiently large, latitudinal vapor transport in the North Pacific controls the bifurcations, with maximum changes occurring in the North Pacific. For intermediate values of inter-basin transport, no rapid transitions occur in either basin. In the regime with vapor flux from the Atlantic to the Pacific, one mode has strong production of deep water in the North Atlantic and a large flux of heat to the atmosphere from the high latitude North Atlantic. The other has strong deep water production in the Southern Ocean and weak production in the North Pacific and small heat transport to high-latitude North Atlantic. The ocean-atmosphere-ice sheet system displays feedbacks which produce century/millennium time scale oscillations. The thermohaline circulation plays a central role in these feedbacks because of its transport of both heat and salt. The feedbacks could potentially play a causal role in the century/milliennium climate change seen in the paleoclimate record.

Wang, Huaxiao

1993-12-31

110

Fiddling with climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Composer and string musician, turned award-winning environmentalist, Aubrey Meyer tells Nature Climate Change why he is campaigning for countries to adopt his 'contraction and convergence' model of global development to avoid dangerous climate change.

2012-01-01

111

Global climate change  

SciTech Connect

This book places the scientific debate over global climate change into a useful policymaking framework. It presents scientific evidence in support of global warming, and describes the uncertainties surrounding predictions of climate change. Addresses potential regional impacts of global warming. It also discusses state policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.

Not Available

1990-01-01

112

Ocean productivity and climate change.  

PubMed

Satellite measurements and the development of new techniques have confirmed the importance of ocean biology in controlling the carbon dioxide (CO(2)) content of the atmosphere. The marine sedimentary record shows that climate change and the ocean carbon cycle are closely linked: during glacial periods, marine productivity was enhanced and atmospheric CO(2) levels were reduced. Global warming may have the opposite effect, with reduced uptake of CO(2) exacerbating the problems of climate change. PMID:21232378

Williamson, P; Holligan, P M

1990-09-01

113

Aerosol lifetime and climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The dominant removal mechanism for atmospheric aerosol is activation of particles to cloud droplets and subsequent wet deposition in precipitation. The atmospheric lifetime of aerosol is thus closely coupled to the atmospheric cycling time of water vapor. Changes of hydrological cycle characteristics resulting from climate change therefore directly affect aerosol lifetime, and thus the radiative forcing exerted by aerosol. This study expresses the coupling between water vapor and aerosol lifetimes and their temperature sensitivities in fundamental equations and in terms of the efficiency of processing of air by precipitating clouds. Based on climate model simulations these temperature sensitivities are estimated to be on the order of +5.3% K-1, but this may be an overestimation. Generally, shifting spatial and temporal patterns of aerosol (precursor) emissions and precipitation, and changes in aerosol activation efficiency probably influence aerosol lifetimes more than climate change itself, resulting in a wide range of simulated aerosol lifetime sensitivities between aerosol-climate models. It is possible that the climate sensitivity of models plays a role. It can be argued that climate sensitivity is intrinsically coupled with the simulated (temperature sensitivity of the) aerosol lifetime through the distribution of water vapor and aerosol between the lower and upper troposphere. This implies a fundamental relation between various feedback forcings (water vapor, lapse rate, cloud) and the aerosol forcing, illustrating the key role of the hydrological cycle in different aspects of the climate system.

Roelofs, G.-J.

2012-07-01

114

Is the dust cycle more sensitive to climate changes than thought? Insights from an improved model for mineral dust emission  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simulations of the global dust cycle by atmospheric circulation models rely on an accurate parameterization of the vertical dust flux at emission. However, existing parameterizations either do not sufficiently account for differences in erodibility among soils, or require parameters that are unavailable on regional or global scales. To address these problems, we present a physically-based theory for the vertical dust flux that is based on the concept that dust emission is a threshold effect. The theory yields a straightforward expression for the vertical dust flux that depends only on the wind friction speed, the soil's threshold friction speed, and the soil's clay content, and can therefore be readily implemented into models. We show that our parameterization is supported by a compilation of high-quality dust flux measurements, and that it reproduces field measurements with a factor of ~3 less scatter in log-space than existing parameterizations. An important insight from the parameterization is that the effect of increases in the threshold friction speed on the dust flux has been substantially underestimated in models. Variations in the threshold speed are partially driven by variations in soil moisture, which is determined by the balance between precipitation and evaporation. Consequently, our results indicate that the global dust cycle is more sensitive to changes in climate than previously thought.

Kok, Jasper; Mahowald, Natalie; Ward, Daniel; Alfaro, Stephane; Fratini, Gerardo; Gillies, John; Ishizuka, Masahide; Leys, John; Marticorena, Beatrice; Mikami, Masao; Park, Moon-Soo; Park, Soon-Ung; Rajot, Jean Louis; Sow, Mamadou; Van Pelt, Robert; Zobeck, Ted

2013-04-01

115

Effect of long-term snow climate change on C and N cycling in the Great Basin Desert, USA  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snowfall is the dominant hydrologic input for high elevations and latitudes of the arid- and semi-arid western United States. Sierra Nevada snowpack provides numerous important services for California, but is vulnerable to anthropogenic forcing of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Fundamental ecological models envision migrations of species to higher elevations under a warmer climate, altered water cycling patterns, changes in carbon fluxes, and impacts on nutrient cycling. How will future complex patterns of snow depth and melt timing affect ecosystem patterns and processes at seasonal and decadal scales? To address such questions, my experiments utilize large-scale, long-term roadside snow fences to manipulate snow depth and melt timing at the ecotone between the Great Basin Desert shrub and the Sierra Nevada conifer forest in eastern California, USA. Soil water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics were compared across snow depth treatments (increased, decreased, and ambient snow depths) as well as across microhabitats (under the canopies of the two dominant shrub species and in open, intercanopy sites.) At this site, April 1 snow pack averages 1344 mm (1928-2008) with a CV of 48%. Snow was about 2-fold deeper on increased depth plots, and was about 20% reduced on decreased snow plots, compared to upwind, ambient-depth plots. Snow fences altered snow melt timing by up to 18 days in high-snowfall years, and affected short-term soil moisture pulses less in low- than medium- or high-snowfall years. Soil temperature was colder during the low-snowfall winter of 2006-2007, compared to the prior and subsequent winters when ambient snowfall was higher. Short-term turnover rates of NO3- and NH4+ were higher after winter compared to summer, but there was considerable variation across snow depth treatments and small-scale microhabitats. Wintertime fluxes of CO2 from soils were dependent on soil temperature, which was affected by snow depth. Snow depth and microhabitat (particularly under the canopies of a N-fixing shrub) interacted to affect long-term patterns of snow depth forcing on total C and NO3-. Results indicate that snow depth affects water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics in both winter and the subsequent spring and summer, and that plant community composition will feedback on water cycling, carbon storage, and N availability over longer time scales. Interactions between species responses and ecosystem processes may help maintain resilience to snow climate change at this widespread shrub-conifer ecotone.

Loik, Michael

2010-05-01

116

Solar cycle 24: Implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ˜65-75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ˜10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

Owens, M. J.; Lockwood, M.; Barnard, L.; Davis, C. J.

2011-10-01

117

Uncertainty in Predicting the Effect of Climatic Change on the Carbon Cycling of Canadian Peatlands  

Microsoft Academic Search

Northern peatlands play an important role globally in the cycling of C, through the exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere, the emission of CH4, the production and export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and the storage of C. Under 2 × CO2 GCM scenarios, most Canadian peatlands will be exposed to increases in mean annual temperature ranging between 2 and

T. R. Moore; N. T. Roulet; J. M. Waddington

1998-01-01

118

Climate Change Policy  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

1998-03-01

119

Climate Change: Teaching Through Technology  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Maine Mathematics and Science Alliance Dec. 6, 2007 Agenda 8:00 Welcome Puzzle Intro Overview: The Science of Climate Change Carbon Cycle Activity Data Analysis: Buoy Data Activity Using Technology Effectively 10:00-10:15 Break Links to the 2007 Maine Learning Results Introduction to Afternoon Exploration COSEE (COSEE Ocean-Climate beta website) Giovanni project (Givoanni: Arabian Sea Lesson) (Giovanni Graphing Activity) Earth Exploration Toolkit: Whither Arctic Sea Ice? (Whither Arctic Sea Ice?) Google Earth Climate Change Resources 11:15-12:00 Lunch Afternoon Resource Exploration Exploration Report and Discussion Antarctic Expedition Opportunity WAIS Divide Outreach Blog WAIS Divide Main Science Page Wrap-Up/Evaluation ...

Chad, Deb A.

2007-12-06

120

The IAHR project CCHE-Climate Change impact on the Hydrological cycle, water management and Engineering: an overview and preliminary results  

Microsoft Academic Search

IAHR, the International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research launched a research Project called Climate Change impact on the Hydrological cycle, water management and Engineering (IAHR CCHE Project). It was motivated by the fact that, although it is now well accepted that, in the light of the recent IPCC reports the vast majority of members of the scientific community are

Roberto Ranzi; T. Kojiri; A. Mynett; S. Barontini; N. van de Giesen; E. Kolokytha; L. A. Ngo; R. Oreamuno; B. Renard; D. Sighomnou; A. Vizina

2010-01-01

121

Cost of energy analysis of integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant with respect to CO2 capture ratio under climate change scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper presents the results of cost of energy (COE) analysis of integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant with respect to CO2 capture ratio under climate change scenarios. In order to obtain process data for COE analysis, IGCC power plant and IGCC with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) power plant have been simulated and modeled using Aspen Plus, and

Kyungtae Park; Ikhyun Kim; Namjin Jang; Moongoo Jeong; Yukyung Lim; En Sup Yoon

2011-01-01

122

On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10 20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean’s thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.

Williams, P. D.; Guilyardi, E.; Sutton, R. T.; Gregory, J. M.; Madec, G.

2006-11-01

123

"Dangerous" Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Current climate change mitigation policy decisions must be made despite layers of uncertainty. Modeling of future climate, projections for future economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions, and characterizations of the interactions and feedbacks within the coupled social-natural system all contain uncertain components. Researchers communicating with policymakers have learned that, instead of presenting "best guesses" or other point estimates, uncertainty assignments require such techniques as probability distributions of outcomes and quantitatively defined descriptions of subjective confidence. We present a quantification of "dangerous" climate change, a term important in policy discussions. Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change expresses the opinion of the signing Parties that steps be taken to "prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system," but the Convention did not specify what constitutes the value judgment of being "dangerous." We present one possible definition. A threshold for "dangerous" climate change is a clear tool for evaluating the need for and impact of proposed climate policy. Monte Carlo analyses with a simple integrated assessment model demonstrate that endogenously calculated climate policy controls appreciably reduce the probability of "dangerous" climate change. Under mid-range assumptions, climate policy reduces the probability of "dangerous" climate change by 30-50%.

Mastrandrea, M. D.

2003-12-01

124

Our Changing Climate  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

Newhouse, Kay Berglund

2007-01-01

125

Our Changing Climate  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

Newhouse, Kay Berglund

2007-01-01

126

Sahel Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Workshop on Sahel Climate Change, Columbia University, New York, 19-21 March 2007 The Sahel transition to persistent drought in the early 1970s is an archetypal example of recent abrupt climate change. This workshop assessed the mechanisms for variability at interannual and interdecadal timescales, and discussed mechanisms of future climate change and sources of model disagreement. Participating scientists brought a diverse range of expertise: mesoscale and paleo observationalists; atmospheric dynamicists; dust and vegetation modelers.

Biasutti, Michela; Giannini, Alessandra; Sobel, Adam H.; Held, Isaac M.; Chiang, John C. H.

2007-07-01

127

Security and climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Despite it being the most studied and arguably most profound of global environmental change problems, there is relatively little research that explores climate change as a security issue. This paper systematically explores the range of possible connections between climate change and security, including national security considerations, human security concerns, military roles, and a discussion of the widely held assumption that

Jon Barnett; Macmillan Brown

2003-01-01

128

Communicating Urban Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

While cities cover only 2% of the Earth's surface, over 50% of the world's people live in urban environments. Precisely because of their population density, cities can play a large role in reducing or exacerbating the global impact of climate change. The actions of cities could hold the key to slowing down climate change. Urban dwellers are becoming more aware of the need to reduce their carbon usage and to implement adaptation strategies. However, messaging around these strategies has not been comprehensive and adaptation to climate change requires local knowledge, capacity and a high level of coordination. Unless urban populations understand climate change and its impacts it is unlikely that cities will be able to successfully implement policies that reduce anthropogenic climate change. Informal and formal educational institutions in urban environments can serve as catalysts when partnering with climate scientists, educational research groups, and public policy makers to disseminate information about climate change and its impacts on urban audiences. The Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP) is an interdisciplinary network designed to assess and meet the needs and challenges of educating urban audiences about climate change. CUSP brings together organizations in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Queens, NY and Washington, DC to forge links with informal and formal education partners, city government, and policy makers. Together this network will create and disseminate learner-focused climate education programs and resources for urban audiences that, while distinct, are thematically and temporally coordinated, resulting in the communication of clear and consistent information and learning experiences about climate science to a wide public audience. Working at a community level CUSP will bring coordinated programming directly into neighborhoods presenting the issues of global climate change in a highly local context. The project is currently exploring a number of models for community programming and this session will present early results of these efforts while engaging participants in exploring approaches to connecting urban communities and their local concerns to the issues of global climate change.

Snyder, S.; Crowley, K.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Hoffstadt, R.; Labriole, M.; Shugart, E.; Steiner, M.; Climate; Urban Systems Partnership

2011-12-01

129

Climate and marine carbon cycle response to changes in the strength of the Southern Hemispheric westerlies  

Microsoft Academic Search

It has been previously suggested that changes in the strength and position of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies could be a key contributor to glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 variations. To test this hypothesis, we perform a series of sensitivity experiments using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. A strengthening of the climatological mean surface winds over the Southern Ocean induces stronger

L. Menviel; A. Timmermann; A. Mouchet; O. Timm

2008-01-01

130

Climate Change in Prehistory  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

Burroughs, William James

2005-06-01

131

Climate Change and Groundwater  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a Human civilisations have for millennia depended on the stability of groundwater resources to survive dry or unreliable climates.\\u000a While groundwater supplies are buffered against short-term effects of climate variability, they can be impacted over longer\\u000a time frames through changes in rainfall, temperature, snowfall, melting of glaciers and permafrost and vegetation and land-use\\u000a changes. Groundwater provides an archive of past climate

Catherine E. Hughes; Dioni I. Cendón; Mathew P. Johansen; Karina T. Meredith

132

Climate change 2007 - mitigation of climate change  

SciTech Connect

This volume of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art and worldwide overview of scientific knowledge related to the mitigation of climate change. It includes a detailed assessment of costs and potentials of mitigation technologies and practices, implementation barriers, and policy options for the sectors: energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management. It links sustainable development policies with climate change practices. This volume will again be the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change. Contents: Foreword; Preface; Summary for policymakers; Technical Summary; 1. Introduction; 2. Framing issues; 3. Issues related to mitigation in the long term context; 4. Energy supply; 5. Transport and its infrastructure; 6. Residential and commercial buildings; 7. Industry; 8. Agriculture; 9. Forestry; 10. Waste management; 11. Mitigation from a cross sectoral perspective; 12. Sustainable development and mitigation; 13. Policies, instruments and co-operative agreements. 300 figs., 50 tabs., 3 annexes.

Metz, B.; Davidson, O.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Meyer, L. (eds.)

2007-07-01

133

Alleviating climate change Alleviating climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Addressing climate change will require dramatic policy shifts in the fields of energy, livestock production and forest management. The following paper summarises where we are now and what we need to do, with an emphasis on how multilateral organisations like The World Bank can help to address the challenges ahead.

Robert Goodland; Simon Counsell

2008-01-01

134

The Blazing Arctic? Linkages of Tundra Fire Regimes to Climatic Change and Implications for Carbon Cycling (Invited)  

Microsoft Academic Search

Among the major challenges in anticipating Arctic changes are ``surprises'' stemming from changes in system components that have remained relatively stable in the historic record. Tundra burning is potentially one such component. We conducted charcoal analysis of lake sediments from several tundra regions to evaluate the uniqueness of recent tundra fires, and examined potential climatic controls of Alaskan tundra fires

F. Hu; P. E. Higuera; J. E. Walsh; W. Chapman; P. Duffy; L. Brubaker; M. L. Chipman

2010-01-01

135

Tropical forests and the global carbon cycle: impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate change and rate of deforestation  

Microsoft Academic Search

The remaining carbon stocks in wet tropical forests are currently at risk because of anthropogenic defores- tation, but also because of the possibility of release driven by climate change. To identify the relative roles of CO2 increase, changing temperature and rainfall, and deforestation in the future, and the magnitude of their impact on atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we have applied a

Wolfgang Cramer; Alberte Bondeau; Sibyll Schaphoff; Wolfgang Lucht; B. Smith; S. Sitch

2004-01-01

136

Learning and climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Learning – i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty – plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations

Brian C. Oneill; Paul Crutzen; Arnulf Grübler; Minh Ha-Duong; Klaus Keller; Charles Kolstad; Jonathan Koomey; Andreas Lange; Michael Obersteiner; Michael Oppenheimer; William Pepper; Warren Sanderson; Michael Schlesinger; Nicolas Treich; Alistair Ulph; Mort Webster; Chris Wilson

2006-01-01

137

Climate change and avian influenza  

PubMed Central

Summary This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in water bird populations will continue with endless adaptation and evolution. In domestic poultry, too little is known about the direct effect of environmental factors on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission and persistence to allow inference about the possible effect of climate change. However, possible indirect links through changes in the distribution of duck-crop farming are discussed.

Slingenbergh, J.; Xiao, X.

2009-01-01

138

Modeling Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Understanding global climate change is challenging, even for adults, yet having an understanding of this topic is consequential for the future. In this activity, middle school students learn about global climate change using models that allow them to make predictions, observations, and then explain mechanisms for climate change. Component ideas include change over time, deep time, and accumulation. Students are asked to act as advisers on how to lower energy use, and refine their understanding of how and why this is important, before testing their ideas and finally revising their advice.

Svihla, Vanessa

139

Rapid changes in temperature and hydrology in the western Mediterranean during the last climatic cycle from the high resolution record ODP Site 976 (Alboran Sea)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

High-resolution pollen record, pollen-inferred climate reconstructions and clay mineralogy records were performed over the last climatic cycle from the ODP Site 976 located in the Alboran Sea Continental paleoenvironment proxies were provided on the same samples to depict the short and long term variability of Mediterranean vegetation and climate during the two last terminations and the last two interglacials. Pollen record highlights the vegetation changes associated to climate variability while clay mineralogy informs about the terrigenous inputs related to wind and/or river transport. During the last cycle, both vegetation and clay minerals data have recorded the response of continental ecosystems to all the climate events which characterized the last 135000 years. The Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations and the rapid cold events evidenced in the North Atlantic (Bond et al., 1993; McManus et al., 1994) are well evidenced in the ODP sequence. Thus, warm interstadials show a strong colonisation of temperate Mediterranean forest while cold events are particularly well expressed by correlative increases in dry steppic to semi-desert formation with enhanced input from African desert dust (Bout-Roumazeilles et al, 2007 and in progress). A special attention has been paid on the two last glacial/interglacial transitions 1 and 2 that occurred before the interglacial inception in order to better understand what happened during these key-periods in continental areas and also better understand how reacts the Mediterranean climate regime through these two periods. The two high resolution records from the Terminaison 2/ Stage 5 and Terminaison 1/ Holocene are compared especially with regards to the wind regime modifications through atmospheric supply, and to hydrological and temperature changes reconstructed from pollen data. Therefore for these two key-periods, we aim to produce a robust climate reconstruction pollen-inferred precipitation and temperature from the 0DP 976 marine Mediterranean core which also can be compared to climate estimates based on other marine cores (Peyron et al., in progress).

Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Peyron, Odile; Bout-Roumazeille, Viviane

2013-04-01

140

Gulf of Mexico Climate, Laurentide Ice Sheet History, and Global Sea Level Change During the Last Glacial Cycle  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The interactions between low-latitude Atlantic climate and high-latitude ice sheet variability represent an important issue in past abrupt climate change. Specifically, Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) meltwater input seems to be decoupled at the millennial scale from Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperature (SST), as well as Greenland air temperature, during the last glacial cycle. Indeed, comparison to Greenland ice core records indicate significant meltwater input during some North Atlantic cool episodes, including Heinrich Stadials 4, 3, and 1. Here we present published and new Mg/Ca and ?18O data on the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber from northern Gulf of Mexico sediment cores that provide detailed records of SST, ?18O of seawater (?18Osw), and inferred salinity for the 48-10 ka interval. Age control for Orca Basin cores MD02-2550 and -2551 is based on AMS 14C dates on G. ruber and documents continuous sedimentation at rates >35 cm/kyr. Significant meltwater input is inferred from ?18Osw data during Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIM) events and reaches a peak during the Bølling/Allerød, consistent with bipolar warming and a high sensitivity to greenhouse forcing. Furthermore, bulk sediment ?18O data show a brief spike reaching -5.5% ca. 14.5 ka during an interval barren of foraminifera. We speculate that this excursion represents fine carbonate sediment from Canadian Paleozoic marine carbonates, analogous to detrital carbonate in the North Atlantic that has a ?18O value of -5%. Radiogenic isotope data (Nd and Pb) also reach peak values at this interval, indicative of older continental material sourced from Canada vs. younger material from the Mississippi River drainage basin. Inferred major meltwater flow appears to have been associated with meltwater pulse 1a within the Bølling warm interval, consistent with a significant contribution by the LIS to rapid global sea level rise. Overall, the relations between Gulf of Mexico meltwater input, Heinrich stadials, and Antarctic warm events suggest bipolar warming and enhanced seasonality during meltwater episodes, as well as a high sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 rise.

Flower, B. P.; Williams, C.; Brown, E. A.; Hastings, D. W.; Hill, H.; Adams, S.; Hendrix, J.; Martin, E. E.; Biller, N. B.; Goddard, E.

2011-12-01

141

Predicting Impacts of Increased CO2 and Climate Change on the Water Cycle and Water Quality in the Semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO3–N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO2, precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO2 concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO3–N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO3–N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin.

Yiping Wu; Liu , Shuguang; Gallant, Alisa L.

2012-01-01

142

Climate Change and Biodiversity in Europe  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is already affecting European biodiversity, as de m- onstrated by changes in species' ranges and ecosystem boundaries, shifts in reproductive cycles and growing seasons, and cha nges to the complex ways in which species interact (predation, pollination, competition and disease). These effects vary between regions and ecosystems. Strategies adopted to mitigate or adapt to climate change also impact

Hannah Reid

143

What Is Climate Change?  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weather consists of those meteorological events, such as rain, wind and sunshine, which can change day-by-day or even hour-by-hour. Climate is the average of all these events, taken over a period of time. The climate varies over different parts of the world. Climate is usually defined as the average of the weather over a 30-year period. It is when…

Beswick, Adele

2007-01-01

144

Non-linear feedbacks between climate change, hydrologic partitioning, plant available water, and carbon cycling in montane forests  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changes in both temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation have the potential to profoundly impact water balance in mountain ecosystems. Although changes in the amount of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are widely considered in climate change scenarios, less attention has been given to how changes in climate or land cover may affect hydrologic partitioning and plant available water. The focus of this presentation is on how spatial transitions in ecosystem structure and temporal transitions in climate affect the fraction of precipitation potentially available to vegetation. In most temperate mountain environments winter snows are a significant fraction of annual precipitation and understanding the partitioning of snow and snow melt is critical for predicting both ecosystem water availability and stream flow under future climate scenarios. Spatial variability in net snow water input is a function of the interaction of snowfall, wind, and solar radiation with topography and vegetation structure. Integrated over larger scales these interactions may result in between 0% and 40% sublimation of winter snowfall before melt, effectively excluding this water from growing season water balance. Once melt begins, variability in the partitioning of snowmelt is driven by the rate of melt, and somewhat less intuitively, by the timing of snow accumulation the previous fall. Early accumulating snowpacks insulate soils and minimize soil frost increasing infiltration of melt the following spring. In contrast, later snowfall results in colder soils, more soil frost, reduced infiltration, increased runoff during melt, and reduced plant available water during the following growing season. This change in hydrologic partitioning, mediated by the timing of snowpack accumulation, results in lower evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) the following spring. These findings suggest that abiotic controls on the partitioning of precipitation may exacerbate or attenuate the effects of climate change on mountain water balance.

Brooks, P. D.; Litvak, M. E.; Harpold, A. A.; Molotch, N. P.; McIntosh, J. C.; Troch, P. A.; Zapata, X.

2011-12-01

145

Climate Change Education .org  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Climate Change Education .org is a volunteer organization made up primarily of docents and interns at California science centers and museums, along with students, scientists, and staff at the University of California, Berkeley. The organization specializes in hands-on science demonstrations relevant to climate change and other topics, and the encouragement of partnerships in education. The group's two portal web sites, Climate Change Education .org and Global Warming California .net, direct visitors to hundreds of links to great resources on subjects of interest.

146

Climate Change and California.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Climate change represents a significant risk to California as a result of a warming and increasingly variable climate. The signs of a global warming trend continue to become more evident and much of the scientific debate is now focused on expected rates a...

2003-01-01

147

Climate Change Made Simple  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|The newly revised specifications for GCSE science involve greater consideration of climate change. This topic appears in either the chemistry or biology section, depending on the examination board, and is a good example of "How Science Works." It is therefore timely that students are given an opportunity to conduct some simple climate modelling.…

Shallcross, Dudley E.; Harrison, Tim G.

2007-01-01

148

Climate Change: An Activity.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Presents a segment of the Geoscience Education booklet, Climate Change, that contains information and activities that enable students to gain a better appreciation of the possible effects human activity has on the Earth's climate. Describes the Terrace Temperatures activity that leads students through an investigation using foraminifera data to…

Lewis, Garry

1995-01-01

149

Climate Processes and Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The 1997 Kyoto summit on climate change demonstrates the world community's desire to protect future generations from harmful effects induced by the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. On the other hand, the worldwide impacts of the 1997-1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event serve as a reminder of how natural variability can strongly influence weather. In this book, Bryant provides a bird's-eye view of natural climate change over the last 2 million years, rather than the fish's-eye view of the more recent possible anthropogenic global warming.The key feature that sets this text apart is the perspective of climate change on a larger timescale. The author recognizes that climate is not constant, and that only small perturbations are necessary to shift climate into an extreme state. If this is the case, however, anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing may also produce extreme climate change. Climate Processes and Change also differs from other texts by raising the awareness of uncertainties in historical observations, trends, and the complex and nonlinear relationships between observations and theory.

Jenkins, Gregory S.

150

Mitigating Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this video segment adapted from Navajo Technical College, meet a chemistry professor who explains some of the core concepts connected to climate change: carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and emissions from energy use.

Foundation, Wgbh E.

2012-03-23

151

Climate change and jobs  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Development expert Barbara Harriss-White leads a team of specialists from agriculture to economics, environmental science and policy to investigate neglected aspects of the climate change response in India.

2012-05-01

152

Climate Change and Ohio.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The earth's climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The heat-trap...

1998-01-01

153

Climate Change and Oklahoma.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The earth's climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The heat-trap...

1998-01-01

154

Climate Change and Illinois.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The earth's climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The heat-trap...

1997-01-01

155

Climate Change and Arkansas.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The earth's climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The heat-trap...

1998-01-01

156

Climate Change and Minnesota.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The earth's climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The heat-trap...

1997-01-01

157

Population and Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the 21st century: population growth (and associated demographic trends such as aging) and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is comprehensible to members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students in courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.

O'Neill, Brian C.; Landis MacKellar, F.; Lutz, Wolfgang

2000-11-01

158

Australian agriculture: coping with dangerous climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Australian agriculture has operated successfully in one of the world’s most hostile environments for two centuries. However,\\u000a climate change is posing serious challenges to its ongoing success. Determining what might constitute dangerous climate change\\u000a for Australian agriculture is not an easy task, as most climate-related risks are associated with changes in the highly uncertain\\u000a hydrological cycle rather than directly to

Will Steffen; John Sims; James Walcott; Greg Laughlin

2011-01-01

159

Global climatic change  

SciTech Connect

This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

1989-04-01

160

Climate Change 1994  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The United Nations Environment Program and the World Meterological Organization set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 to provide an authoritative international consensus of scientific opinion on climate change. This report, prepared by IPCC Working Groups I and II, reviews the latest scientific evidence on the following key topics: radiative forcing of climate change; the latest values of global warming potential (used to compare the potential effect on future climate of different anthropogenic factors); the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere; and an evaluation of scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. Researchers in climatology and environmental science, as well as environmental and science policy, will benefit from this book.

Houghton, John T.; Meira Filho, L. G.; Bruce, James P.; Lee, Hoesung; Callander, Bruce A.; Haites, E. F.

1995-06-01

161

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER POLLUTION  

Microsoft Academic Search

Changing climate has implications for land use and the fate and behaviour of anthropogenic and natural chemicals particularly with respect to their interaction with the hydrological cycle. Climate change may influence mobilisation and fate of chemicals applied to land, increasing discharge to surface and groundwater. Discharge volumes of storm water containing various contaminants may also increase. The bioavailability of sediment-

Dave Sheahan

162

Drought, Climate Change and the Canadian Prairies  

Microsoft Academic Search

The occurrence of drought is a ubiquitous feature of the global water cycle. Such an extreme does not necessarily lead to an overall change in the magnitude of the global water cycle but it of course affects the regional cycling of water. Droughts are recurring aspects of weather and climate extremes as are floods and tornadoes, but they differ substantially

R. E. Stewart

2010-01-01

163

Avoiding dangerous climate change  

SciTech Connect

In 2005 the UK Government hosted the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference to take an in-depth look at the scientific issues associated with climate change. This volume presents the most recent findings from the leading international scientists that attended the conference. The topics addressed include critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, socioeconomic costs and benefits of emissions pathways, and technological options for meeting different stabilisation levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Contents are: Foreword from Prime Minister Tony Blair; Introduction from Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC; followed by 41 papers arranged in seven sections entitled: Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds; General Perspectives on Dangerous Impacts; Key Vulnerabilities for Ecosystems and Biodiversity; Socio-Economic Effects; Regional Perspectives; Emission Pathways; and Technological Options. Four papers have been abstracted separately for the Coal Abstracts database.

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Wolfgang Cramer; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; Tom Wigley; Gary Yohe (eds.)

2006-02-15

164

Poverty and Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

2008-05-01

165

What Science Is Telling Us About Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

What is science telling us about climate change? Leading climate change experts discuss (through short videos) one of the most complex scientific puzzles ever to confront humankind. Topics discussed include: "how do we know climate change is occurring," the water cycle, earth's heat balance, and the carbon cycle. An additional "meet the experts pdf" is available for download.

2009-01-01

166

Poverty and Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify

G. van der Vink; E. Franco; N. S. Fuckar; E. R. Kalmbach; E. Kayatta; K. Lankester; R. E. Rothschild; A. Sarma; M. L. Wall

2008-01-01

167

Adaptation to Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Problem: Even if significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions are achieved, some amount of climate change appears to be inevitable. Local, regional, state, and federal planning and regulation should begin to address how to adapt to these changes.Purpose: This article presents a policy synthesis of adaptation planning issues, using California as a case study. We examine the institutional and

Louise W. Bedsworth; Ellen Hanak

2010-01-01

168

Solar Influence: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This short video, the sixth in the National Academies Climate Change, Lines of Evidence series, explores the hypothesis that changes in solar energy output may be responsible for observed global surface temperature rise. Several lines of evidence, such as direct satellite observations, are reviewed.

Council, National R.; Academies, The N.

169

Climate change and disaster management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A

Geoff O'Brien; Phil O'Keefe; Joanne Rose; Ben Wisner

2006-01-01

170

Coping with climate change  

SciTech Connect

The Second North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Change may be the most ambitious assemblage of experts ever to assess impact and response strategies to the twin challenges of greenhouse warming and stratospheric ozone depletion. Presentations were made by over 160 scientists, environmental leaders and policy makers from the Western Hemisphere, Europe and Asia in 38 sessions over a three day period. Chapters in this volume correspond to the seven regional panels of the Second North American Conference, with discussions of implications of climate changes for the Caribbean, the Arctic, California, the Southern United States, the Chesapeake Bay, Atlantic Canada and New England, and the Great Lakes. This book also contains a policy overview of the climate challenge with contributions from US, Canadian, British and Caribbean governmental and corporate leaders. A chapter devoted to a scientific overview of climate change includes a skillful overview of the key scientific and policy issues involved in greenhouse warming, a seminal article on regional implications of climate change and the potential impacts of global warming on droughts and floods, and a panel discussion involving four of the world's leading stratospheric scientists. Individual papers were processed separately for the data base.

Topping, J.C. Jr. (ed.)

1989-06-01

171

Predicting impacts of increased CO? and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA.  

PubMed

Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO(2) concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO(3)-N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO(2), precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO(2) concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO(3)-N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO(3)-N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin. PMID:22641243

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Gallant, Alisa L

2012-05-26

172

Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Global Climate Change is one of the Exploring the Environment series of online modules. Emphasizing an integrated approach to environmental earth science through problem-based learning, this module asks students to predict how increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is changing the climate, and the possible effects this may have on Kansas wheat crops. Students access remote sensing data via links to both current and historical data and work through a sequence of hyperlinked background resources to investigate this problem. The site also offers a glossary, teacher resources, and a general description of the problem-based learning model.

2000-01-01

173

EVOLUTIONARY RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATE  

Microsoft Academic Search

Until now, Quaternary paleoecologists have regarded evolution as a slow process relative to climate change, predicting that the primary biotic response to changing climate is not adaptation, but instead (1) persistence in situ if changing climate remains within the species' tolerance limits, (2) range shifts (migration) to regions where climate is currently within the species' tolerance limits, or (3) extinction.

Margaret B. Davis; Ruth G. Shaw; Julie R. Etterson

2005-01-01

174

Life cycle assessment of integrated municipal solid waste management systems, taking account of climate change and landfill shortage trade-off problems.  

PubMed

Steps taken to counter the climate change problem have a significant impact on the municipal solid waste management (MSW) sector, which must tackle regional environmental problems such as the shortage of sanitary landfills, especially in Japan. Moreover, greenhouse gas emissions and final disposal have a trade-off relationship. Therefore, alleviation of both these environmental problems is difficult, and Japanese local municipalities are anxious for action to solve these problems and reduce treatment costs. Although ambitious waste management measures have been enacted in many countries, they appear to lack a holistic view and do not adopt a life cycle approach. Therefore, it is important to reconstruct the MSW management system, taking into account environmental and economic aspects. In the present study, life cycle assessment and mathematical modelling were used to seek ways of redesigning the MSW management system in order to minimize environmental impacts and/or reduce treatment costs. One economic block was selected as the study area (Iwate Prefecture in Japan). The life cycle inventory and costs data for every MSW transportation and treatment process in this region were collected and processed. Then, taking account of geographic information, an optimal solution for the minimization of environmental impact or treatment costs was derived. To solve the trade-off problem, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to find optimal reduction targets for climate change and final disposal. PMID:20699290

Tabata, Tomohiro; Hishinuma, Tatsuo; Ihara, Tomohiko; Genchi, Yutaka

2010-08-10

175

On predicting climate under climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Can today’s global climate model ensembles characterize the 21st century climate in their own ‘model-worlds’? This question is at the heart of how we design and interpret climate model experiments for both science and policy support. Using a low-dimensional nonlinear system that exhibits behaviour similar to that of the atmosphere and ocean, we explore the implications of ensemble size and two methods of constructing climatic distributions, for the quantification of a model’s climate. Small ensembles are shown to be misleading in non-stationary conditions analogous to externally forced climate change, and sometimes also in stationary conditions which reflect the case of an unforced climate. These results show that ensembles of several hundred members may be required to characterize a model’s climate and inform robust statements about the relative roles of different sources of climate prediction uncertainty.

Daron, Joseph D.; Stainforth, David A.

2013-09-01

176

Extinction and climate change.  

PubMed

Arising from F. He & S. P. Hubbell 473, 368-371 (2011). Statistical relationships between habitat area and the number of species observed (species-area relationships, SARs) are sometimes used to assess extinction risks following habitat destruction or loss of climatic suitability. He and Hubbell argue that the numbers of species confined to-rather than observed in-different areas (endemics-area relationships, EARs) should be used instead of SARs, and that SAR-based extinction estimates in the literature are too high. We suggest that He and Hubbell's SAR estimates are biased, that the empirical data they use are not appropriate to calculate extinction risks, and that their statements about extinction risks from climate change do not take into account non-SAR-based estimates or recent observations. Species have already responded to climate change in a manner consistent with high future extinction risks. PMID:22358847

Thomas, Chris D; Williamson, Mark

2012-02-22

177

Climate for Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This volume provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. It takes a novel approach to the subject by concentrating on the ways non-state actors--such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organizations--affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights into the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these nongovernmental organizations on the course of global climate politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy makers associated with climate change, and will be used in university courses in international relations, politics, and environmental studies.

Newell, Peter

2000-09-01

178

SENSITITVITY OF MOUNTAIN REGIONS TO CLIMATIC CHANGE  

Microsoft Academic Search

Mountains are also a key element of the hydrological cycle, being the source of many of the world's major river systems. Shifts in climatic regimes, particularly precipitation, in space or seasonally in a changing global climate, would impact heavily on the river systems originating in mountain areas, leading to disruptions of the existing socio-economic structures of populations living within the

Martin Beniston; Wilfried Haeberli

179

Orbitally-Induced, Quasi-Periodic Climate Change on Mars: Modelling Changes in the Global Cycling of Water and Carbon Dioxide  

Microsoft Academic Search

Mars' orbital parameters (obliquity, eccentricity and argument of perihelion) are thought to have varied substantially on time scales >105 years. Such variations, especially in obliquity, may drastically affect the circulation of the atmosphere and volatile cycling. In this study, we focus on the response of the water and carbon dioxide cycles to changes in these orbital parameters, chiefly obliquity. The

M. A. Mischna; M. I. Richardson; R. J. Wilson

2002-01-01

180

Changing climate, changing forests: The impacts of climate change ...  

Treesearch

Description: Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects ... over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. ... northeastern United States and eastern Canada. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS -99.

181

Addressing the climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

While calls are being made to deal with the linkages between climate change and sustainable development to arrive at an integrated policy, concrete steps in this direction have been very limited so far. One of the possible instruments through which both issues may be approached simultaneously is a multi-stakeholder partnership, a form of governance with the potential to address existing

Jonatan Pinkse; Ans Kolk

2012-01-01

182

Communicating Climate Change (Invited)  

Microsoft Academic Search

I will discuss the various challenges scientists must confront in efforts to communicate the science and implications of climate change to the public. Among these challenges is the stiff headwind we must fight of a concerted disinformation effort designed to confuse the public about the nature of our scientific understanding of the problem and the reality of the underlying societal

M. E. Mann

2009-01-01

183

Dating martian climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Geological evidence indicates that low-latitude polygonally-patterned grounds on Mars, generally thought to be the product of flood volcanism, are periglacial in nature and record a complex signal of changing climate. By studying the martian surface stratigraphically (in terms of the geometrical relations between surface landforms and the substrate) rather than genetically (by form analogy with Earth), we have identified dynamic

David P. Page; Matthew R. Balme; Monica M. Grady

2009-01-01

184

Wetlands and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This instructional guide is designed to provide instructors with lecture materials and resources that examine the relationship between wetlands and global climate change. Student objectives, a general lecture outline and a more detailed PowerPoint presentation with instructor notes are provided. The role of wetlands in global carbon budgets and as sources and sinks of greenhouse gases is discussed. Anticipated impacts of climate change on both coastal and inland wetlands are also presented.Instructors who are looking for videos or additional print and web-based resources on the topics covered here should consult the resources list provided at the end of this module where these resources are summarized and cited.Upon successful completion of this module students should be able to:* Describe the importance of wetlands as sources and sinks of greenhouse gases* Describe the impacts of wetlands on global climate change* Describe the impacts of global climate change on both coastal and inland wetlands* Describe how carbon trading has been applied to wetlands

Cudmore, Wynn

2011-09-20

185

Pollen and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this activity, students study the relationship between changing climate conditions and the distribution of plants across North America, using a unique tool called the Pollen Viewer. This tool allows the user to animate the retreat of the North American glacier and the migration of plant species during the waning period of the most recent Ice Age.

Pickle, John; Kranz, Becca; Frazier, Katharina; Terc

186

Secular Changes of Climate  

Microsoft Academic Search

FOR some time past it has been generally believed that the climate of Central Asia was once less arid than at present, but we now know, as Dr. Sven Hedin explained to the Royal Geographical Society on December 8 (p. 134), that important changes have taken place since the Christian era began. He found in the Lob Nor region forests

T. G. Bonney

1902-01-01

187

Confronting Climate Change  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, an African-American think tank based in Washington, D.C., convenes a commission to focus on the disparate impact of climate change on minority communities and help involve historically Black institutions in clean energy projects. Launched formally in July 2008, the Commission to Engage…

Roach, Ronald

2009-01-01

188

Biological Effects of Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

How important is climate change--something that has occurred throughout Earth's history? Can ecosystems tolerate the magnitude and rate of future change? How will other conservation threats interact with climate change? How likely are widespread extinction

Constible, Juanita; Sandro, Luke; Lee Jr., Richard E.

2008-10-01

189

Increase of Carbon Cycle Feedback with Climate Sensitivity: Results from a coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model  

SciTech Connect

Coupled climate and carbon cycle modeling studies have shown that the feedback between global warming and the carbon cycle, in particular the terrestrial carbon cycle, could accelerate climate change and result in larger warming. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of this feedback for year-2100 global warming in the range of 0 K to 8 K. Differing climate sensitivities to increased CO{sub 2} content are imposed on the carbon cycle models for the same emissions. Emissions from the SRES A2 scenario are used. We use a fully-coupled climate and carbon cycle model, the INtegrated Climate and CArbon model (INCCA) the NCAR/DOE Parallel Coupled Model coupled to the IBIS terrestrial biosphere model and a modified-OCMIP ocean biogeochemistry model. In our model, for scenarios with year-2100 global warming increasing from 0 to 8 K, land uptake decreases from 47% to 29% of total CO{sub 2} emissions. Due to competing effects, ocean uptake (16%) shows almost no change at all. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration increases were 48% higher in the run with 8 K global climate warming than in the case with no warming. Our results indicate that carbon cycle amplification of climate warming will be greater if there is higher climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} content; the carbon cycle feedback factor increases from 1.13 to 1.48 when global warming increases from 3.2 to 8 K.

Govindasamy, B; Thompson, S; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Caldeira, K; Delire, C

2004-04-01

190

Physical Controls of the Earth's Climate and Climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Earth's climate system and changes to it are determined by the physical processes that govern the flows of energy to and from the atmosphere and Earth's surface. Although the energy exchanges at the top of the atmosphere are well determined from available satellite measurements, the global character of the energy flows within the climate system, and to and from the Earth's surface in particular, are not directly measured and thus are much more uncertain. The surface energy balance is particularly important since geographical variations of its distribution drives ocean circulations, dictates the amount of water evaporated from the Earth's surface, fuels the planetary hydrological cycle and ultimately controls how this hydrological cycle responds to forced climate change. This talk reviews our state of understanding of the physical processes that determine the energy balance, couple to the Earth's water cycle and are responsible for the most important climate feedbacks that dictate the pace of climate change. Challenges in understanding the mechanisms responsible for feedbacks associated with clouds and precipitation, water vapor, snow cover and carbon will be highlighted. The further complexity and uncertainty that aerosols add to the cloud and precipitation feedbacks will also be reviewed. The effects of uncertainties in our understanding of the physical climate system, and feedbacks within it, will be reviewed in the context of climate change projections.

Stephens, Graeme

2013-03-01

191

Changing climate, changing democracy: a cautionary tale  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change has come to hold a central position within many policy arenas. However, a particular framing of climate change and climate science, underpinned by modernist assumptions, dominates policy discourse. This leads to restricted policy responses reflecting particular interests and socio-political imaginaries. There is little public debate concerning this framing or the assumptions underpinning approaches to climate policy. The implications

Mhairi Aitken

2012-01-01

192

Weather, Climate, Climate Change and Actions  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This e-book contains the basics of weather and climate, climate change, and basic actions one can do to combat climate change. Included are embedded videos, slideshows, readings, and graphics. Discussion questions follow each section or chapter. This resource allows one to learn and/or use in a variety of ways integrating online resources that extend the learning, specifically flash animations, online labs, videos, curriculum, and readings. An iPad version is also available.

2012-01-01

193

Dialogue on Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This is a summary of a 2 day seminar on the topic "Dialogue on Global Climate Change." The sessions on October 1 included a scientific overview of global climate change, a discussion on religious perspectives on global climate change, and consideration of impacts and equity. The sessions on October 2 focused on policy considerations and the Kyoto Convention on Climate Change. Panelists discussed economic challenges in responding to climate change, reviewed the Kyoto convention and its political prospects, and examined the roles of science, religion, values, and economics in crafting public policy on climate change.

;

2007-06-28

194

Climate Change and Extinction  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

A senior researcher discusses extinction due to global warming in this two-minute sound segment. He says that as climate warms, species will probably move upslope and towards the poles but in many cases, that may put species that are found on mountain tops at risk. Species with small ranges or lowland species that may not be able to get to mountain slopes and find equitable climate will die out. His study suggests that as many as one million species of plants and animals worldwide could be facing extinction as a result of climate change. This site is from an archive of a daily radio program called Pulse of the Planet, which provides its listeners with a portrait of Planet Earth, tracking the rhythms of nature, culture and science worldwide and blending interviews and extraordinary natural sound. The site also provides a written transcript of the broadcast.

2004-07-12

195

Soil vulnerability to future climate in the southwestern USA, with implications for vegetation change and water cycle  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Understanding soil response to changes in precipitation/snow cover and increasing temperatures is essential to predicting changes in riparian, wetland, and aquatic as well as terrestrial communities in the coming decades. Changes in precipitation and snowmelt are affecting streamflow seasonality and magnitude, and rising air temperatures and declining precipitation affect aquatic habitats directly by causing increases in stream temperatures and evapo-transpiration causing lower streamflow. The water resources of the Colorado River system are projected to be strained due to runoff losses of 7 to 20% this century, and a reduction of approximately 5% of the annual average runoff is due to increased evapotranspiration from early exposure of vegetation and soils. We are developing a spatially-explicit soil vulnerability index of high, moderate and low sensitivity soils for the southwestern USA and comparing it to projections of vegetation dieback under future climate change scenarios to provide 1) a measure of uncertainty of the model skill and 2) a warning that vegetation shifts may increase soil vulnerability in areas where it is still protected by current plant cover, thus enabling a preliminary estimate of the future location of sources of aeolian dust.

Peterman, W. L.; Bachelet, D. M.

2011-12-01

196

Projections of Future Climate Change  

SciTech Connect

Contents: Executive Summary 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Climate and Climate Change 9.3 Projections of Climate Change 9.4 General Summary Appendix 9.1: Tuning of a Simple Climate Model toAOGCM Results References

Cubasch, U.; Meehl , G.; Boer, G. J.; Stouffer, Ron; Dix, M.; Noda, A.; Senior, C. A.; Raper, S.; Yap, K. S.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Brinkop, S.; Claussen, M.; Collins, M.; Evans, J.; Fischer-Bruns, I.; Flato, G.; Fyfe, J. C.; Ganopolski, A.; Gregory, J. M.; Hu, Z. Z.; Joos, Fortunat; Knutson, T.; Knutti, R.; Landsea, C.; Mearns, L. O.; Milly, C.; Mitchell, J. F.; Nozawa, T.; Paeth, H.; Raisanen, J.; Sausen, R.; Smith, Steven J.; Stocker, T.; Timmermann, A.; Ulbrich, U.; Weaver, A.; Wegner, J.; Whetton, P.; Wigley, T. M.; Winton, M.; Zwiers, F.; Kim, J. W.; Stone, J.

2001-10-01

197

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on const...

M. G. Bosilovich S. D. Schubert G. K. Walker

2003-01-01

198

Learn About Colorado's Changing Climate: Climate Change and Colorado's Future  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This series of teacher-developed and teacher-tested model lessons are designed to engage students in the science of climate change. All topics are linked to one or more of five Learn More About Climate videos, which localize climate change by pairing interviews with leading climate scientists with everyday Coloradans who explain how climate change is affecting Colorado communities. Each lesson outlines the essential principles, learning objectives and Colorado State Science Standards addressed and is accompanied by a variety of classroom materials that can be adapted for learners in grades 5-12. Suggestions for potential extensions and links to additional climate change curricula and other classroom resources are also provided.

199

Teaching Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The science of climate change often gets lost behind the political debate. It presents those of us who teach physical science both the responsibility and the opportunity to teach both the science and, as importantly, the process of science to our students and the general public. Part of the problem is that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making teaching it to science-averse students and general audiences even more challenging. Also, in our times when every action and statement is suspected of having a political motivation, teaching the process of science - data gathering and analysis, hypothesis testing and peer review - as our way of keeping science as truthful as possible so that the conclusions are more than just another opinion presents as great a challenge as teaching the science itself. I have been teaching a course in Global Climate since 2000, have taught elderhostel courses twice, and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to teach this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

O'Donoghue, A.

2011-09-01

200

Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Large, irreversible changes in climate may have a major effect on the economies of the world. The social costs of climate change will vary dramatically from country to country. This landmark assessment from Working Group III of the IPCC addresses the costs of climate change, both in terms of society and equity issues, and the economic burden of combating adverse

James P. Bruce; Hoesung Lee; Erik F. Haites

1996-01-01

201

Smithsonian climate change exhibits  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Two new museum exhibits, ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely'' and ``Atmosphere: Change is in the Air'' opened 15 April at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C., in partnership with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. In ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely,'' anecdotes from indigenous polar people reveal how climate changes have affected life within the last 50 years. For example, as permafrost melts and sea ice shrinks, plant distributions and animal migration patterns are changing, severely affecting culture.

Kumar, Mohi

2006-05-01

202

Processing of Climatic Data for Detection of Cycles and Trends.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Three data-processing models were applied to climatic records to test detectability of parameters of climatic change. One was the conventional ARIMA model. The other two were developed and tested for this study. The first model detected cycles of varying ...

A. W. Thomas A. L. Dillard W. M. Snyder W. C. Mills

1997-01-01

203

EDITORIAL: Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and environmental change  

Microsoft Academic Search

High Northern Hemisphere latitudes are undergoing rapid and significant change associated with climate warming. Climatic change in this region interacts with and affects the rate of the global change through atmospheric circulation, biogeophysical, and biogeochemical feedbacks. Changes in the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle, and carbon budget feedback to regional and global weather and climate systems. Two-thirds of the Northern

Pavel Groisman; Amber Soja

2007-01-01

204

The IAHR project CCHE-Climate Change impact on the Hydrological cycle, water management and Engineering: an overview and preliminary results  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IAHR, the International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research launched a research Project called Climate Change impact on the Hydrological cycle, water management and Engineering (IAHR CCHE Project). It was motivated by the fact that, although it is now well accepted that, in the light of the recent IPCC reports the vast majority of members of the scientific community are convinced that the climate is changing or at least will experience a significant fluctuation already during the current century, it is perceived that some hydrologists, water experts and hydraulic engineers are not yet ready to incorporate climate change scenarios in their designs for such projects as: - flood protection and river training, - dam rehabilitation, - water resources management under water scarcity and changes in the hydrological regimes. The objective of the project is to encourage a close co-operation between the scientific and engineering communities in taking appropriate and timely action in response to the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime and on water resource projects. The project aims at reporting on (a) the current state of knowledge as regards the impact of projected climate change on the hydrological regime in different regions of the world, where these regions are defined not just in geographic terms but also on the basis of their level of economic and water resources development; (b) the extent to which these impacts are recognized and taken into account by national water authorities, engineering organizations and other regulating bodies in setting their standard practices and procedures for the planning, design and operation of water works. These adaptation measures will include both "hard" responses, such as the construction or enlargement of engineering structures, and "soft" responses, such as changes in legislation or the operating rules of existing structures. An overview of the project and preliminary results extracted from of an Inventory of existing studies and projects considering observed and projected trends in the hydrological regimes of riverbasins and adaptation measures of the structural and non-structural type in Europe, Africa, America, Asia and Oceania and are presented.

Ranzi, Roberto; Kojiri, T.; Mynett, A.; Barontini, S.; van de Giesen, N.; Kolokytha, E.; Ngo, L. A.; Oreamuno, R.; Renard, B.; Sighomnou, D.; Vizina, A.

2010-05-01

205

Climate Change and Human Health  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Learn how global climate change affects human health in this interactive activity adapted from A Human Health Perspective: On Climate Change by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.

Foundation, Wgbh E.

2011-07-01

206

Climate Change and Citizen Science  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This animation describes how citizen observations can document the impact of climate change on plants and animals. It introduces the topic of phenology and data collection, the impact of climate change on phenology, and how individuals can become citizen scientists.

Citizen Science Central, Cornell L.

207

Outchasing climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pygmy possums, monarch butterflies, spoon-billed sandpipers, and a number of trees and other plants could be among the species unable to migrate fast enough to new habitat in the face of potential global climate changes, according to an August 30 report by the Switzerland-based World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the U.S. based Clean-Air-Cool Planet (CACP), two conservation organizations.

Showstack, Randy

208

Implications of abrupt climate change.  

PubMed Central

Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic.

Alley, Richard B.

2004-01-01

209

Climate change hastens population extinctions  

PubMed Central

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of many species. Predictions of climate-induced population extinctions are supported by geographic range shifts that correspond to climatic warming, but few extinctions have been linked mechanistically to climate change. Here we show that extinctions of two populations of a checkerspot butterfly were hastened by increasing variability in precipitation, a phenomenon predicted by global climate models. We model checkerspot populations to show that changes in precipitation amplified population fluctuations, leading to rapid extinctions. As populations of checkerspots and other species become further isolated by habitat loss, climate change is likely to cause more extinctions, threatening both species diversity and critical ecosystem services.

McLaughlin, John F.; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Boggs, Carol L.; Ehrlich, Paul R.

2002-01-01

210

Terrestrial ecosystems and climatic change  

SciTech Connect

The structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems depend on climate, and in turn, ecosystems influence atmospheric composition and climate. A comprehensive, global model of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics is needed. A hierarchical approach appears advisable given currently available concepts, data, and formalisms. The organization of models can be based on the temporal scales involved. A rapidly responding model describes the processes associated with photosynthesis, including carbon, moisture, and heat exchange with the atmosphere. An intermediate model handles subannual variations that are closely associated with allocation and seasonal changes in productivity and decomposition. A slow response model describes plant growth and succession with associated element cycling over decades and centuries. These three levels of terrestrial models are linked through common specifications of environmental conditions and constrain each other. 58 refs.

Emanuel, W.R. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); Schimel, D.S. (Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (USA). Natural Resources Ecology Lab.)

1990-01-01

211

Global climate change and infectious diseases.  

PubMed

Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth's atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations. PMID:23022814

Shuman, E K

2011-01-01

212

Activities for Conceptualizing Climate and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This project is a digitally-based instructional program that contains data-rich case studies and visualization activities, as well as a visual library as a resource for teachers and students. A series of activities is organized to move scientifically from climate, to climate variability, to climate change. The site contains free teacher lesson plans, powerpoints, student activities, a summary of research on student conceptions and a curricular framework/philosopy document.

213

CLIMATE CHANGE: A POLITICAL INTRODUCTION  

Microsoft Academic Search

Syllabus Summary Climate change has now grown from a scientific concern to one of the most pressing issues of our time. This seminar aims to look at the topic from a political viewpoint, and analyze the different mechanisms of cooperation in the fight against climate change. The first part provides an appraisal of climate change as a political issue: it

François Gemenne

214

Understanding recent climate change.  

PubMed

The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most. PMID:20121837

Serreze, Mark C

2010-02-01

215

Free Podcasts on Climate and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In partnership with the National Science Digital Library and Apple, NCAR and UCAR offer podcasts that provide a brief and accessible overview on climate and climate change. These podcasts, short 5-8 minute videos you can download on your computer or iPod, are a part of the NSDL on iTunes U collection.

Payo, Robert

216

Climatic change on Mars.  

PubMed

The equatorial sinuous channels on Mars detected by Mariner 9 point to a past epoch of higher pressures and abundant liquid water. Advective instability of the martian atmosphere permits two stable climates-one close to present conditions, the other at a pressure of the order of 1 bar depending on the quantity of buried volatiles. Variations in the obliquity of Mars, the luminosity of the sun, and the albedo of the polar caps each appear capable of driving the instability between a current ice age and more clement conditions. Obliquity driving alone implies that epochs of much higher and of much lower pressure must have characterized martian history. Climatic change on Mars may have important meteorological, geological, and biological implications. PMID:17731265

Sagan, C; Toon, O B; Gierasch, P J

1973-09-14

217

Effect of climate and environmental changes on plankton biodiversity and bigeochemical cycles of the Dongsha (Pratas) Atoll, South China Sea  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dongsha (Pratas) Atoll, the so called "Pearl Crown of South China Sea", is a well-developed atoll with a total area of 80000 hectares. It possesses various ecosystems and has very high biodiversity, but it is very sensitive to climate change and physical processes. According to our investigation within the shallow semi-enclosed atoll in April, July, and October, 2011 (i.e., spring, summer, and autumn, respectively), we found that plankton assemblages and hydrographical conditions exhibited clear seasonal and spatial variations. Colder and higher salinity water was observed in April, while warmer water in July and lower salinity water in October, respectively. Nutrient concentration within the atoll was similar to that of the oligotrophic South China Sea waters and seemed to be in nitrogen-limit situation, while the distribution pattern of DOC and POC was mainly attributed to Chla and imported detritus matters. Carbon deposition flux also showed significant seasonal changes, but POC/PN value was near Redfield ratio, implying mostly due to biogenic factors; however it could still be classified as a typical coral ecosystem, since CaCO3 sinking flux generally was 30 times higher than that of organic matter. Plankton biodiversity was quite high in the atoll, and preformed apparent seasonal succession; in total, 82 phytoplankton species and 67 copepod species were recorded; furthermore, crab zoea (17.3% of the total zooplankton by number), fish eggs (12.5%), and shrimp larvae (4.2%), were relatively abundant in zooplankton community, revealed that atoll might be a good hatching ground. We deduced that the seasonal patterns of chemical and biological variables were mainly influenced by monsoons and precipitation, while small scales of temporal and spatial variations could be ascribed to internal wave and tide in this study area.

Lo, Wen-tseng; Hsu, Pei-Kai; Hunag, Jia-Jang; Wang, Yu-Huai

2013-04-01

218

Effects of Temperature and Water Level Changes on Enzyme Activities in Two Typical Peatlands: Implications for the Responses of Carbon Cycling in Peatland to Global Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

As enzymes are involved in soil nutrient and carbon cycle in peatlands, they were expected to play a key role in regulating soil organic carbon decompose process in peatlands. In addition, temperature and water levels are both crucial factors affecting enzyme activities. Therefore, we investigated the effects of temperature and water level change on enzyme activities in two typical peatlands,

Ling He; Wu Xiang; Xingting Sun

2009-01-01

219

Assessment of climate change effects on water and carbon cycling and habitat change in the Yukon River Basin: Piloting a National Strategy (Invited)  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recent hydrologic investigations conducted in the Yukon River Basin indicate shifts in the timing and source of water and carbon exports by the Yukon River to the Bering Sea. Much of the observed change can be attributed to permafrost thaw and increased infiltration; factors that also affect surface water extent and chemistry, vegetation and habitat composition and condition, biogeochemical cycling,

P. S. Murdoch; R. G. Striegl

2009-01-01

220

World Bank Group: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Located within the World Bank's Environment Department, the Climate Change team "provides resources and expertise for the World Bank's participation in international climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and provides technical advice to the World Bank's Global Environment Facility Program." Understandably, the site contains a brief explication of the key themes surrounding contemporary concerns about climate change, along with offering a detailed discussion of the various programs and research projects with which the Climate Change group is engaged directly or in tandem with other related organizations and institutions. From the main page, visitors can read about the nature of international climate change (and its disproportionate effects on the developing world), peruse a list of relevant online publications, and read press releases from the Climate Change team.

221

Climate Change: Prospects for Nature  

ScienceCinema

Thomas Lovejoy, President of The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, explores the impact of climate change on the natural world. He also discusses the implications of climate change for climate policy and natural resource management.

222

Human Engineering and Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Anthropogenic climate change is arguably one of the biggest problems that confront us today. There is ample evidence that climate change is likely to affect adversely many aspects of life for all people around the world, and that existing solutions such as geoengineering might be too risky and ordinary behavioural and market solutions might not be sufficient to mitigate climate

S. Matthew Liao; Anders Sandberg; Rebecca Roache

2012-01-01

223

Scenarios of climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8°C, and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2°C is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun’s supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action.

Graßl, H.

2009-09-01

224

Nitrogen regulation of climate-carbon cycle feedback: evidence from a long-term global change experiment  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modeling study has showed that nitrogen (N) strongly regulates ecosystem responses and feedback to climate warming by presuming that the increased N mineralization is the key mechanism for stimulating plant C uptake. Here, we present long-term experimental evidence to test the modeling hypothesis. We have conducted a warming and clipping experiment since November 1999 in a tallgrass prairie of Great Plains, USA. Infrared heaters were used to elevate soil temperature by an average of 1.6oC from 2000 to 2008. Yearly biomass clipping was to mimic hay or biofuel feedstock harvest. We measured carbon (C) and N concentrations, estimated their contents and C:N ratio in plant, root, litter, and soil pools. Warming significantly stimulated C storage in aboveground plant, root, and litter pools by 17, 38 and 29%, respectively, over the 9 years (all P<0.05) but did not change soil C content or N content in any pool. Plant and litter C:N ratio increased in the warmed plots in comparison with that in the control plots, resulting primarily from increased dominance of C4 plants in the community. Clipping significantly decreased C and N storages in plant and litter pools (all P<0.05) but did not have interactive effects with warming on either C or N pools over the 9 years. Our results suggested that increased ecosystem nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) via shifted species composition toward C4 dominance rather than plant N uptake is a key mechanism underlying warming stimulation of plant biomass growth.

Niu, S.; Luo, Y.

2009-12-01

225

Land-Cover and Land-Use Change under Changing Climate in the Eurasian Arctic  

Microsoft Academic Search

An overview of the studies conducted in the framework of the NASA Land-Cover\\/Land- Use Change Program focused on the Eurasian Arctic will be presented. It includes discussion of vegetation changes under climate warming and implications to carbon cycle, changes in environmental pollution, hydrologic cycle, and impacts on society. Climate change can affect land cover in the Arctic through changes in

G. Gutman

2009-01-01

226

Land-Cover and Land-Use Change Under Changing Climate in the Eurasian Arctic  

Microsoft Academic Search

This presentation is an overview of the studies conducted in the framework of the NASA Land-Cover\\/Land- Use Change Program focused on the Eurasian Arctic. It includes discussion of vegetation changes under climate warming and implications to carbon cycle, changes in environmental pollution, hydrologic cycle, and impacts on society. Climate change can affect land cover in the Arctic through changes in

G. Gutman; P. Groisman; A. Reissell

2008-01-01

227

Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The Plan for Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) program for global monitoring of man's inadvertent modification of weather and climate. The interrelated activities, several of which sho...

1971-01-01

228

Climate Change: Assessing Our Actions.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The power sector is a major source of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that threaten the stability of the global climate system. OPIC understands the serious implications of GHG emissions and climate change and was the first bilateral fina...

2000-01-01

229

Uncertainty in Climate Change Modeling  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Learn why trout are important indicators in Wisconsin’s changing climate, and why the uncertainty of global climate models complicates predictions about their survival, in this video produced by the Wisconsin Educational Communications Board.

Ecb, Wisconsin

2010-11-30

230

Climate Variability and Change in a Eutrophic Great Lakes Freshwater Embayment: Shifting Hydrodynamics and the Potential for Indirect Impacts on Biogeochemical Processes, Carbon Cycling and Hypoxia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Future changes in the climatic regime of the Great Lakes region have the potential to induce a variety of both direct (e.g. thermal) and indirect (e.g. biogeochemical) alterations in ecosystem function. In the case of the later, we have identified a statistically significant shift in wind direction of the average wind field over the Great Lakes basin that is consistent with a southward migration of the dominant summer storm track. In Green Bay (NW Lake Michigan), we have shown that the new wind field has most likely resulted in periods of decreased thermal stratification and an overall decrease in water mass exchange with Lake Michigan. In subsequent studies, aimed at determining the impact of these shifts in the physical climate regime, time series measurements of currents, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, and the Be-7 activity of particulates in bottom sediments, sediment traps, and suspended particulates have been made over a 3 year period. A tracer of short term particle dynamics, Be-7 (half life 53 d) is useful in estimating particle residence times in the water column, along with episodic sediment deposition and erosion rates, and the average number of deposition/erosion cycles a particle experiences prior to permanent burial in the sediments. Be-7 derived estimates of the age of particulate organic carbon cycling between surface sediments and the overlying waters are on the order of months, and are dependent upon resuspension frequency. Remineralization of organic carbon within this actively resuspended pool of material results in estimated decomposition rates for POC ranging 0.08 to 0.04% per day, a rate intermediate between the rapid remineralization of fresh algal material and post-depositional diagenesis. Comparisons between 1989-90 and 2004-06 show a decrease in resuspension frequency, possibly in response to shifts in regional climatic scale dynamics. This appears to result in an increase in the efficiency of trapping of organic matter in the bay and a significant increase in the organic carbon content of suspended particulates within the resuspension reactor. Measured sedimentation rates determined via Pb-210 and Cs-137 also indicate increased sediment accumulation over this interval. Combined with the wind shift induced reduction in water mass exchange, these climatic changes have the potential to increase hypoxia via enhancing benthic oxygen demand - a common feature of lower Green Bay that recent evidence suggests may be exacerbated, triggering severe oxygen depletion and fish kills.

Klump, J. V.; Waples, J. T.

2008-12-01

231

California Climate Change Portal  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Global warming and climate change have been a top priority for a number of international organizations, and in recent years, a number of states have also become profoundly concerned about these transformations. Not surprisingly, the state of California has been interested in these subjects for some time, and this website is an initiative of the various agencies working in this area of research. On this site, visitors can learn about various initiatives sponsored by different agencies within the state and also peruse a list of FAQÂs on the subject. First-time visitors will want to start at the ÂBackground section; they may then proceed to the ÂPolicy & Program area, where they can learn what the state is doing to combat this situation. Some of these programs include a voluntary greenhouse gas emission registry for California companies and a research program to spur environmentally-friendly energy alternatives. Finally, the site also includes a very nice glossary of terms used in discussing global climate change.

232

Communicating Climate Change (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

I will discuss the various challenges scientists must confront in efforts to communicate the science and implications of climate change to the public. Among these challenges is the stiff headwind we must fight of a concerted disinformation effort designed to confuse the public about the nature of our scientific understanding of the problem and the reality of the underlying societal threat. We also must fight the legacy of the public’s perception of the scientist. That is to say, we must strive to communicate in plainspoken language that neither insults the intelligence of our audience, nor hopelessly loses them in jargon and science-speak. And through all of this, we must maintain our composure and good humor even in the face of what we might consider the vilest of tactics by our opposition. When it comes to how best to get our message out to the broader public, I don’t pretend to have all of the answers. But I will share some insights and anecdotes that I have accumulated over the course of my own efforts to inform the public about the reality of climate change and the potential threat that it represents.

Mann, M. E.

2009-12-01

233

Climate change and marine life.  

PubMed

A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change. PMID:22791706

Richardson, Anthony J; Brown, Christopher J; Brander, Keith; Bruno, John F; Buckley, Lauren; Burrows, Michael T; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Schoeman, David S; Schwing, Frank; Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2012-07-11

234

The role of high-speed rail in mitigating climate change – The Swedish case Europabanan from a life cycle perspective  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper a life cycle perspective is used to analyse Europabanan, a proposed high-speed rail track in Sweden. The life cycle emissions reductions are found to be 550,000tons of CO2-equivalents per annum by 2025\\/2030 with almost 60% of this coming from a shift from truck to rail freight and 40% from a shift from air and road travel to

Jonas Åkerman

2011-01-01

235

Groundwater under climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change has a large impact on different environmental issues, such as groundwater availability. In Switzerland, springs provide nearly 40 % of the drinking water and are, in many regions, the main water supply. Dry periods show how vulnerable some of these systems are. The response of springs to drought, however, is complex and not readily predictable. While some show a decrease of discharge and low water table values, others do not react, or only slightly, to such extreme weather conditions. The aim of this study is to understand the behavior of springs and to estimate their vulnerability under different climate scenarios. Two different field sites are presented. The first site is located at Wohlenschwil in a relatively flat moraine landscape (400 m a.s.L.) overlying a porous aquifer. Because of the water abstraction scheme, no spring discharge can be observed but the dynamic of this system is typical of spring behavior. The second site is located in the Upper Emme valley, a hilly region where groundwater flows mostly in fractured Molasse before discharging through springs at an altitude of 860 m a.s.L. Tracer tests and isotopes measurements, as well as geophysical and hydraulic methods to quantify recharge processes and estimate buffer capacity of the systems during dry phases, are applied for unsaturated and saturated zones. All field results are used to build up a fully coupled numerical model (HydroGeoSphere), which gives results about the dynamic of the system with given climate scenarios. Preliminary results from tracer tests and numerical modeling show that, only with an integral approach that includes both the saturated and unsaturated zones, a global assessment of transit times and of the buffer capacity is possible. Furthermore, numerical modeling based partly on soil water measurements and a structure analysis of the “Wohlenschwil” catchment shows that recharge processes are only controlled by precipitation and that inflow from borders are of minor role. The dynamic of this area is strongly dependent on the local climate. The next step will be a more detailed investigation of the soil to obtain a better understanding of direct recharge and flow processes in the unsaturated zone. Therefore soil moisture measurements at different location in the catchment will be carried out

Moeck, C.; Schirmer, M.; Hunkeler, D.; Project Of National Research Programme "Sustainable Water Management" (Nrp 61)

2010-12-01

236

Modelling Arctic Climate Change: Discussion  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate prediction requires the use of coupled models of the atmosphere-deep ocean-sea ice and land surface. This paper outlines the formulation of processes relevant to the simulation and prediction of climate change in the Arctic of one such model, that of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at the Meteorological Office. Comparison of the simulation of a number

D. J. Drewry; J. Crossley

1995-01-01

237

Natural and anthropogenic climate changes  

SciTech Connect

This report discusses the following three components of the project: analysis of climate data in US and China to study the regional climate changes; analysis of general circulation model simulations of current and CO[sub 2]-doubled global and regional climates; and studies of desertification in the United States and China.

Wang, W.C.; Ronberg, B.; Gutowski, W.; Gutzler, D.; Portman, D. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)); Li, K.; Wang, S. (Academia Sinica, Beijing, BJ (China). Inst. of Geography)

1987-01-06

238

Geomorphic responses to climatic change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The primary focus of this book is the response of landscapes to Pleistocene and Holocene climatic changes. During the past 40 ky the global climate has varied from full-glacial to interglacial. Global temperatures decreased between 40 and 20 ka culminating in full-glacial climatic conditions at 20 ka. This resulted in a sea level decline of 130 m. Only 8 to

W. B. Bull

1991-01-01

239

Expert credibility in climate change  

PubMed Central

Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.

Anderegg, William R. L.; Prall, James W.; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H.

2010-01-01

240

Global Climate Change: Atmosphere  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site explains how climate change affects everything from stratospheric temperatures to the golden toad of Costa Rica. Graphs, articles, and maps monitor humankind's impact on the planet. The site features five thumbnails including two maps showing Global Outgoing Longwave Heat Radiation, and Global Reflected Shortwave Solar Radiation and three graphs entitled Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Records from Mauna Loa, Hawaii (1958 - 2000), Global Average Near-Surface Temperatures - Monthly Anomalies (1961 - 2002), and Global Stratospheric and Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies (1979 - 2001). Each of these provides a link to a larger version of the visual and a detailed explanation. Each section has links to a glossary as well as links to questions about each section and additional references.

241

Pembina Institute: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This portal, published by the Pembina Institute, provides access to materials related to the threat of climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions as seen in Canada, and some possible solutions to the problem. There is a science overview that describes the increase in atmospheric Carbon dioxide due to human activity and how it causes Earth's atmosphere to retain heat, and a section on government policy, both worldwide and in Canada, to stabilize or reduce emission of greenhouse gases. There is also an overview of the Institute's work to aid implementation of the Kyoto protocol in Canada and achieve future reductions in GHG emssions. There are also links to additional materials such as publications and news releases, information on renewable energy sources, E-education programs, and teaching tools.

242

Climate Change and Arctic Ecosystems  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this activity, students learn about how climate change is affecting the Arctic ecosystem and then investigate how this change is impacting polar bear populations. Students analyze maps of Arctic sea ice, temperature graphs, and polar bear population data to answer questions about the impact of climate change on the Arctic ecosystem.

Change, Project A.; University, Purdue

243

A Record of Climate Change  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

The hydrologic cycle is a very basic scientific principle. In this article, background information is presented on how the hydrologic cycle provides scientists with clues to understanding the history of Earth's climate. Also detailed is a web-based activity that allows students to learn about how scientists are able to piece together a record of…

Smith, Zach

2007-01-01

244

A Record of Climate Change  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|The hydrologic cycle is a very basic scientific principle. In this article, background information is presented on how the hydrologic cycle provides scientists with clues to understanding the history of Earth's climate. Also detailed is a web-based activity that allows students to learn about how scientists are able to piece together a record of…

Smith, Zach

2007-01-01

245

Will a breakdown in nutrient cycling limit the long-term response of forested systems to elevated CO[sub 2] and climate change  

SciTech Connect

Rising atmospheric CO[sub 2] and climate change may have dramatic effects of forested systems. Under elevated CO[sub 2] most forest species increase their allocation of C to roots to acquire additional resources for growth. A large portion of photosynthate is released belowground through root turnover, root exudates, or symbiotic exchange. This injection of C belowground may stimulate the mineralization of soil organic matter and mineral weathering; increasing nutrient availability and plant growth in the short-term. It is uncertain, however, what the long-term effects on nutrient cycling will be. Will supply keep pace with demand Will CO[sub 2] stimulated mineralization be short-lived Will the breakdown in nutrient cycling ultimately limit the biospheric response to elevated CO[sub 2] Initial results from long-term CO[sub 2] exposure studies indicate that increased nutrient use efficiencies and increase nutrient supplies may sustain the CO[sub 2] effect in the short-term. It is likely, however, that in the long-term, nutrient supplies will eventually limit the growth response to elevated CO[sub 2] in forested systems.

Johnson, M.G. (Environmental Research Laboratory, Corvallis, OR (United States))

1994-06-01

246

Clouds and climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As concern grows over the possibility of altering the Earth's climate, a major uncertainty exists in computer models used to study the Earth's atmosphere, regarding our current understanding of clouds and our ability to simulate their effect on climate. A number of recent observations and computer simulation studies, however, have shed light on the important role of clouds in determining the present and future climate of our atmosphere.Data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Earth Radiation Budget Experiment have been used to obtain an accurate picture of how clouds affect our present global climate system [Ramanathan, 1989]. The effect of clouds on solar and thermal radiation entering and leaving our climate is known as cloud forcing. Low clouds generally cool the Earth's surface, while high clouds warm the climate system. For the entire planet, however, the cooling effect of low clouds is stronger than the warming effect from high clouds, so that overall, clouds cool the climate.

Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

247

Evolution, Abundance and Biocalcification of Calcareous Nannoplankton During the Aptian (Early Cretaceous): Causes and Consequences for C Isotopic Anomalies, Climate Changes and the Carbon Cycle.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The mid Cretaceous is marked by extreme greenhouse conditions, coeval with emplacement of large igneous provinces, C isotopic anomalies, major changes in structure and composition of the oceans, and accelerated rates in the evolutionary history of calcareous plankton. The Aptian is a crucial interval to decipher links between biotic evolution and environmental pressure: it is appealing for understanding nannofloral biocalcification and feedbacks in the carbonate system and in the global carbon cycle. Ontong Java, Manihiki and Kerguelen Plateaus formed in the Aptian affecting the ocean-atmosphere system with excess CO2, changes in Ca2+ and Mg2+ concentrations, and varying nutrient cycling. Two large C isotopic anomalies are associated with episodes of prolonged high primary productivity, changes in alkality, global warming and cooling, anoxia, speciations and extinctions in planktonic communities. Nannofossil diversity, abundance and biocalcification are quantified in continuous, complete, pelagic sections to derive biosphere-geosphere interactions at short and long time scales. The early Aptian C isotopic anomaly interrupts a speciation episode in calcareous nannoplankton paralleled by a drastic reduction in nannofossil paleofluxes culminating in the nannoconid crisis preceding the Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a and the negative C isotopic spike linked to clathrate melting presumably triggered by the thermal maximum at the onset of the mid Cretaceous greenhouse climate. No extinctions are recorded. In the early late Aptian resumption of nannoconid production and appearance of several taxa are coeval with a return to normal C isotopic values. The occurrence of calpionellids and diversified planktonic foraminifers indicate successful biocalcification and restoration of the thermocline. In the late Aptian a drop in nannofossil abundance and accelerated extinction rates are associated with another C isotopic excursion under cool conditions possibly due to a prolonged volcanic winter or reversed greenhouse conditions resulting from a draw-down of carbon dioxide after accelerated weathering and massive burial of organic carbon-rich sediments in the oceans.

Erba, E.

2005-12-01

248

Carbon Cycle Observations: Gaps Threaten Climate Mitigation Policies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Successful management of carbon dioxide (CO2) requires robust and sustained carbon cycle observations. Yet key elements of a national observation network are lacking or at risk. A U.S. National Research Council review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program earlier this year highlighted the critical need for a U.S. climate observing system to meet requirements of mitigation policies for improved

Richard Birdsey; Nick Bates; Mike Behrenfeld; Kenneth Davis; Scott C. Doney; Richard Feely; Dennis Hansell; Linda Heath; Eric Kasischke; Haroon Kheshgi; Beverly Law; Cindy Lee; A. David McGuire; Peter Raymond; Compton J. Tucker

2009-01-01

249

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This report is an attempt to describe what is known about abrupt climate changes and their impacts, based on paleoclimate proxies, historical observations, and modeling. Large, abrupt climate changes have repeatedly affected much or all of the earth, locally reaching as much as 10 Celsius degrees change in 10 years. Available evidence suggests that abrupt climate changes are not only possible but likely in the future, potentially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies. The report does not focus on large, abrupt causes like nuclear wars or giant meteorite impacts, but rather on new findings that cite gradual causes that push the earth system across a threshold. The slow effects of drifting continents, wobbling orbits or changing atmospheric composition may "switch" the climate to a new state. Faster earth-system changes, whether natural or human-caused, are likely to increase the probability of encountering a threshold that triggers a still faster climate shift.

250

Can ice sheets trigger abrupt climatic change?  

SciTech Connect

The discovery in recent years of abrupt climatic changes in climate proxy records from Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, and from other sites around the world, has diverted attention from gradual insolation changes caused by Earth`s orbital variations to more rapid processes on Earth`s surface as forcing Quaternary climatic change. In particular, forcing by ice sheets has been quantified for a major ice stream that drained the Laurentide Ice Sheet along Hudson Strait. The history of these recent discoveries leading to an interest in ice sheets is reviewed, and a case is made that ice sheets may drive abrupt climatic change that is virtually synchronous worldwide. Attention is focused on abrupt inception and termination of a Quaternary glaciation cycle, abrupt changes recorded as stadials and interstadials within the cycle, abrupt changes in ice streams that trigger stadials and interstadials, and abrupt changes in the Laurentide Ice Sheet linked to effectively simultaneous abrupt changes in its ice streams. Remaining work needed to quantify further these changes is discussed. 90 refs., 14 figs.

Hughes, T. [Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States)

1996-11-01

251

FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the first binding international legal instrument that deals directly with climate change. The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992 after negotiations by the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Fra...

252

Climate Change Mitigation in Turkey  

Microsoft Academic Search

One of the most contentious issues in the debate over global climate change is the perceived divide between interests and obligations of developed and developing countries. Equity demands that developed countries act first to reduce emissions. That principle is embedded in the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which sets binding emission

KAMIL KAYGUSUZ

2004-01-01

253

Generating Arguments about Climate Change  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|This unit is a different and fun way to engage students with an extremely important topic, climate change, which cuts across scientific and nonscientific disciplines. While climate change itself may not be listed in the curriculum of every science class, the authors contend that such a unit is appropriate for virtually any science curriculum.…

Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

2012-01-01

254

Climate change, conflict and health  

Microsoft Academic Search

Both conflict and climate change may produce serious negative health consequences. However, there is insufficient evidence that climate change, e.g. through environmental degradation or fresh water shortages, leads to conflict as is often claimed. Also, current theory on causes of conflict would refute this hypothesis.

Egbert Sondorp; Preeti Patel

2003-01-01

255

Teaching about Global Climate Change  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

2011-01-01

256

Climate Change and Your Health  

MedlinePLUS

Nearly all scientists agree that climate change is real, is here, and that we humans are part of the problem — and part of the solution. Experts also agree ... the effects of global warming are serious. But climate change threatens more than the environment. It also threatens ...

257

Idea Bank: Climate Change Inquiries  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

How can students engage in authentic inquiry on global climate change if they are not able to do the actual experiments? Many questions about climate change emerge over large areas and long periods of time. The good news is that much of the data from thes

Bowman, Ryan

2010-02-01

258

Take Aim At Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This music video features a rap song about some of the causes and effects of climate change with the goal of increasing awareness of climate change and how it will impact nature and humans. The website also includes links to short fact sheets with lyrics to the song that are annotated with the sources of the information in the lyrics.

Palooza.com, Polar

259

Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

Bierly, Eugene W.

2006-08-01

260

Climate Change and Aerosol Feedbacks  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate instability is expected as mixing ratios of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere increase. The current trend in rising temperature can be related to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. However, this trend may change as feedback mechanisms amplify; one of the least-understood aspects of climate change. Formation of cloud condensation nuclei from rising sulfate concentrations in the atmosphere may counteract

Ann-Lise Norman

2008-01-01

261

BIRD MIGRATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE  

Microsoft Academic Search

The purpose of this paper is to explain and forecast the dependency of different migratory processes: spring arrival dates, migratory take-off, transit autumnal and spring migrations, migration abruption, and their characteristics upon different climatic parameters. We tried to explain the change in migratory-resident state of birds, and defined the effect of climate change upon species specificity of bird migration, mechanisms

Mecislovas ŽALAKEVI?IUS

1997-01-01

262

Holocene climate-dynamics of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon-a record built by centennial paleoflood variations superimposed upon millennial cycles of grade change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

How do climate variations build an alluvial stratigraphic record versus destroy it? How do we reconcile the paradigms of paleoflood hydrology versus cyclic aggradation and degradation? Intensive research in Grand Canyon reveals a record spanning the entire Holocene that addresses these and other issues of the dynamic response of continental-scale rivers to climate. The Colorado River integrates sediment from the rapidly eroding Colorado Plateau with a hydrology controlled by snowmelt in its Rocky Mountain headwaters. Thus geomorphic responses may be driven by climate in both regions, and the influence of both variable flooding and sediment supply must be resolved. Recent chronostratigraphic investigations at archaeological sites spanning the Colorado River corridor have involved scores of exposures constrained by 104 OSL and 14C dates. Results indicate a correlatable Holocene stratigraphy exists across the canyon, assigned to packages I-V based upon field observations of bounding unconformities and hiatuses in deposition. A sharp character distinction exists between the thinly interbedded, diverse canyon-bottom facies of millennial-scale packages I, II, and III, versus the thickly bedded, purer mainstem flood deposits of younger, century-scale packages IV and V. These distinct packages are borne out by peaks in the probability distribution of all stratigraphic ages. Packages I, II, and III are evenly spaced over the entire Holocene, suggesting a cyclical driver, and the last episode of aggradation from 3500-1500 yrs bp. Spikes of depositional ages within these reflect field evidence that century-scale oscillations built the millennial packages in pulses. Packages IV and V are likewise interpreted as peaks in flood magnitude, and their inset stratigraphic position is consistent with overall lowering of grade over the last several hundred years. This new stratigraphic model can be conceptualized as two sine curves, with a longer millennial wavelength dictating the background grade of the channel. The shorter, superimposed wavelength of flood variability builds terrace deposits while on the rising limb of millennial grade, but when on the falling limb, clusters of large floods tend to produce inset deposits with a low preservation potential. This implies that the paleoflood paradigm is pertinent at century timescales, whereas over millennia the shifting grade of the system should confound both preservation and estimates of paleoflood magnitude. In terms of climate drivers, other research suggests the river aggraded or incised over millennia in response to sediment production in canyon tributaries, perhaps related to variations in winter-frontal versus monsoonal precipitation. Yet millennial climate changes that can be linked to this response in Grand Canyon are elusive, suggesting sensitivity of the system to subtle shifts in regional climate. At shorter timescales, several studies have linked alluvial deposits of the plateau to ~200-500 yr wet-dry cycles, including the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Optimum as possibly linked to ENSO. Still, the pertinent driver is specifically annual snowmelt flooding from the headwaters, and tree-ring records of drought across the catchment and lake records of winter moisture in the Rockies more directly reflect such variations.

Pederson, J. L.

2011-12-01

263

Vegetation and climate changes in the South Eastern Mediterranean during the Last Glacial-Interglacial cycle (86 ka): new marine pollen record  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Eastern Mediterranean, located at the meeting between the Mediterranean vegetation of the Eurasian continent and the desert vegetation of the Saharan-Arabian desert belt, is ideal for tracking changes in regional vegetation as function of climate changes. Reconstruction of these changes in the South Eastern Mediterranean during the last 86 ka is based on a palynological record, from deep-sea core 9509, taken by R/V Marion Dufresne, off the southern Israeli coast. The chronological framework is based on the correlation of ?18O records of planktonic foraminifera with the high resolution, well-dated U-Th speleothem record from the Soreq Cave, Israel and the occurrence of sapropel layers. Several cycles of humid/dry periods were documented during the last 86 ka. The record starts with the moderate humid and warm sapropel S3 marking the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5. The climate during the Last Glacial period (75.5-16.2 ka) was cold and dry, with low Arboreal Pollen (AP) levels, and high values of semi-desert and desert vegetation (e.g. Artemisia - sagebrush). The driest and coldest period during the last 86 ka corresponds to MIS 2 (27.1-16.2 ka), characterized by the lowest tree cover along the sequence and the dominance of steppe vegetation. Some slightly more humid fluctuations were identified during the period of 56.3 and 43.5 ka with its peak between 56.0 and 54.4 ka. The most pronounced climate change started at the beginning of the Deglaciation (16.2-10 ka) and continued throughout the Holocene (last 10 ka), notwithstanding some short fluctuations. High AP levels were dominated by Quercus callipprinos (evergreen oak), suggesting that the Mediterranean forest was more extensive in the area and the climate was wet.Sapropels S3 and S1 were clearly recognized here by the high concentrations and good state of preservation of pollen because of the development of anoxia in the bottom water that may be related to more extensive Nile discharge coinciding with high insolation values at 65° N and enhanced westerlies activity. Another wet and warm event is the Bölling-Allerød (14.6-12.3 ka). Cold and dry spells identified by low AP and high steppe elements correspond with Heinrich Events H2-H6, the Last Glacial Maximum, Younger Dryas and the 8.2 ka event. Similar pattern of vegetation trends was observed also in Lake Zeribar Western Iran, Tenaghi Philippon North East Greece and the Alborán Sea. There is a clear general difference between the South East Mediterranean and western and central Mediterranean because of W-E climatic moisture gradient reflected in the dominance of Mediterranean maquis, lower tree population and higher steppe vegetation in the South East Mediterranean.

Langgut, D.; Almogi-Labin, A.; Bar-Matthews, M.; Weinstein-Evron, M.

2011-12-01

264

Changing with the climate - Treesearch  

Treesearch

Jul 1, 2013 ... Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific ... Changes to the global climate have significant repercussions and will ... As we grapple with what these changes mean for ecosystems, and how the output ...

265

Projected Impact of Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This visualization is a chart that displays future climate change in terms of temperature increases and the impacts and Food, Water, Ecosystems, Extreme Weather Events, and Risk of Abrupt and Irreversible Changes that are predicted with the increasing temperature benchmarks.

Berger, Ketill; Unep/grid-Arendal

266

AAAS - Global Climate Change Video  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This video features residents of Shishmaref, Alaska, plus environmental journalist Elizabeth Kolbert and scientist John Holdren, exploring the human impacts of global climate change. The roles of teachers, scientists, policymakers, and concerned citizens in mitigating the changes are highlighted.

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS); Aaas

267

Climate Change and Human Health  

PubMed Central

Climate change science points to an increase in sea surface temperature, increases in the severity of extreme weather events, declining air quality, and destabilizing natural systems due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions. The direct and indirect health results of such a global imbalance include excessive heat-related illnesses, vector- and waterborne diseases, increased exposure to environmental toxins, exacerbation of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases due to declining air quality, and mental health stress among others. Vulnerability to these health effects will increase as elderly and urban populations increase and are less able to adapt to climate change. In addition, the level of vulnerability to certain health impacts will vary by location. As a result, strategies to address climate change must include health as a strategic component on a regional level. The co-benefits of improving health while addressing climate change will improve public health infrastructure today, while mitigating the negative consequences of a changing climate for future generations.

Luber, George; Prudent, Natasha

2009-01-01

268

The World Bank: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Climate change continues to be of grave concern to many, and the World Bank is particularly concerned with the ramifications it will have on people in the developing world. Their Climate Change site is designed to provide an overview of their work on this vexing problem including information about their current projects, data sets, research papers, and books. Visitors should start by looking over their weblog, and then take a look at their "News" area. Here, they can learn about innovative carbon trading programs, engineering projects, and international agreements designed to mitigate the effects of climate change. The "Research" area has dozens of free publications, including the very relevant "Climate Resilient Cities" work, which discusses how city governments can better understand how to plan for the impact of climate change through sound urban planning.

269

The World Bank: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Climate change continues to be of grave concern to many, and the World Bank is particularly concerned with the ramifications it will have on people in the developing world. Their Climate Change site is designed to provide an overview of their work on this vexing problem and information about their current projects, data sets, research papers, and books. Visitors should start by looking over their weblog, and then take a look at their "What's New" area. Here they can learn about innovative carbon trading programs, engineering projects, and international agreements designed to mitigate the effects of climate change. The "Research & Analysis" area has dozens of free publications, including the very relevant "Climate Resilient Cities" work, which discusses how city governments can better understand how to plan for the impact of climate change through sound urban planning.

2009-08-13

270

Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations  

SciTech Connect

Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

2009-02-14

271

Climate change hot-spots  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot-Spots. The RCCI is calculated for 26 land regions from the latest set of climate change projections by 20 global climate models for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The Mediterranean and North Eastern European regions emerge as the primary Hot-Spots, followed by high latitude northern hemisphere regions and by Central America, the most prominent tropical Hot-Spot. The main African Hot-Spots are Southern Equatorial Africa and the Sahara. Eastern North America is the prominent Hot-Spot over the continental U.S. Different factors over different regions contribute to the magnitude of the RCCI, which is in fact greater than 0 for all regions.

Giorgi, F.

2006-04-01

272

Diverse views on climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change; Santa Fe, New Mexico, 30 October to 4 November 2011 At the Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change, hosted by the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Center for Nonlinear Studies, researchers offered some of the latest thinking on how to observe and model the driving forces as well as the impacts of regional and global climate change, climate system responses, and societal impacts. It was the third in a series of conferences held at 5-year intervals. More than 140 climate science experts from the United States and foreign universities and research centers attended the conference, held at the La Fonda Hotel in historic downtown Santa Fe. The conference program included more than 80 invited and contributed oral presentations and about 30 posters. The oral sessions were grouped by topic into sessions of four or five talks, with discussion occurring at the end of each session

Garrett, Timothy; Dubey, Manvendra; Schwartz, Stephen

2012-04-01

273

Dictionary of global climate change  

SciTech Connect

This book represents a revision of the climate change lexicon that was prepared for the Second World Climate Conference in 1990. The conference had 1400 participants and consisted of a scientific component followed by a ministerial meeting. To foster communication among the different constituencies, a lexicon of climate and climate change was prepared for the participants. The dictionary includes definitions and descriptions of most of the scientific terms, organizations, and programs related to the physical aspects of climate change. Nearly 40% of the material describes organized projects, experiments, or programs, mostly international. Some information on biological topics, such as the difference between C3 and C4 plants, is also included. The length of definitions and descriptions ranges from one line to one or more pages, with the longer descriptions usually related to programs.

Maunder, W.J. (ed.)

1992-01-01

274

Agrometeorological adaptation strategies to increasing climate variability and climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper starts with summarizing the indications for climate change as they are reviewed in the most recent WMO global climate system reviews. There are indications in the paper for increasing climate variability in certain areas. Some of the principal causes of increasing climate variability and climate change (ICV & CC) are a mixture of external and internal factors to

M. J. Salinger; C. J. Stigter; H. P. Das

2000-01-01

275

Global climate change: Policy implications for fisheries  

SciTech Connect

Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. These include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. For fisheries resources, policy questions address effects on international, national, and regional scales. Climate change variables expected to affect inland and offshore fisheries include temperature rise, changes in the hydrologic cycle, alterations in nutrient fluxes, and reduction and relocation of spawning and nursery habitat. These variables will affect resources at all levels of biological organization, including the genetic, organism, population, and ecosystem levels. In this context, changes in primary productivity, species composition in the food-web, migration, invasions, synchrony in biological cycles, shifts in utilization of niches, and problems of larvae entrainment in estuaries have been identified. Maintaining ecosystem robustness (i.e., high biodiversity) is another component of the problem. Action requires establishing priorities for information needs, determining appropriate temporal and spatial scales at which to model effects, and accounting for interactive changes in physical and biological cycles. A policy response can be derived when these results are integrated with social needs and human population constraints.

Gucinski, H.; Lackey, R.T.; Spence, B.C.

1990-01-01

276

Impacts of Evolutionary History on Endangerment in a Changing Climate: Miocene upwelling, Holocene Pluvial Cycles and Endemics at the Mouth of the Colorado River.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The environmental conditions communities experienced during their diversification and recent geologic history informs us as to which environmental changes are most likely to impact species in those communities. Three examples follow: 1) Recent compilation of molecular and paleontological data document that higher aspects of the trophic chain in the Pacific Northwest, including the salmon genus Onchoyrhynchus, alcid birds (Auks & Puffins) and crabs of the genus Cancer speciated dramatically in response to enhanced upwelling of the mid Miocene (Jacobs et al. 2004). Consistent with this evolutionary origin, population dynamics and endangerment of these taxa are associated with the changing productivity regime of the Pacific as well as more direct human impacts. 2) Pluvials in the Eurasian and African continent respond to the precession cycle, as a result wetland habitats were much more expansive in the early and middle Holocene. Late Holocene wetland habitat contraction combines with increasing anthropogenic manipulation of these cyclically limited hydrologic resources to yield a suite of endangered taxa across these continents as is statistically documented by analysis of Redbook data. 3) Our recent work documents the evolution of endemic fish and Molluscan taxa in association with the Colorado River Delta. These endemic taxa are then vulnerable to the to impacts on the Colorado Delta where anthropogenic use of water resources combine with the threat of climate provide combined threats to this ecosystem. The Environmental/Evolutionary history of lineages clearly has strong implications for how anthropogenic changes impacts and endangers those lineages. Jacobs D.K. et al. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2004. 32:601 52

Jacobs, D. K.

2006-12-01

277

Climate change and marine turtles  

Microsoft Academic Search

Marine turtles occupy a wide range of terrestrial and marine habitats, and many aspects of their life history have been demonstrated to be closely tied to climatic variables such as ambient temperature and storminess. As a group, therefore, marine turtles may be good indicators of climate change effects on coastal and marine habitats. Despite the small number of species in

Lucy A. Hawkes; Annette C. Broderick; Matthew H. Godfrey; Brendan J. Godley

2009-01-01

278

Aerosol, Clouds, and Climate Change.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Earth's climate is thought to be quite sensitive to changes in radiative fluxes that are quite small in absolute magnitude, a few watts per square meter, and in relation to these fluxes in the natural climate. Atmospheric aerosol particles exert influence...

S. E. Schwartz

2005-01-01

279

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS  

EPA Science Inventory

Outline of talk: A. What causes climate change B. Possible changes in the world's and the Pacific Northwest's climate C. Possible impacts of climate change I. The world and U.S. II. Oregon D. Possible solutions E. Discussion ...

280

Natural and anthropogenic climate change  

SciTech Connect

This report consists of two parts: (1) progress for the period 9/1/91--3/31/92 and (2) the plan for the remaining period 4/1/92--8/31/92. The project includes two tasks: atmospheric radiation and improvement of climate models to evaluate the climatic effects of radiation changes. The atmospheric radiation task includes four subtasks: (1) Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM), (2) analysis of the water vapor continuum using line-by-line calculations to develop a parameterization for use in climate models, (3) parameterization of longwave radiation and (4) climate/radiation interactions of desert aerosols. Our effort in this period is focused on the first three subtasks. The improvement of climate models to evaluate the subtasks: (1) general circulation model study and (2) 2- D model development and application.

Ko, M.K.W.; Clough, S.A.; Molnar, G.I.; Iacono, M. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)); Wang, W.C. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States) State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States). Atmospheric Sciences Research Center)

1992-03-01

281

Assessing Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Large-scale climatic patterns, rather than a growing “heat island” effect, are the overriding influence on weather in the Potomac River area, and temperature data in the area can therefore be validly compared to global trends. At least temporarily, however, the area, which includes Washington, D.C., has lost its coupling with global temperature trends.Short-term regional anomalies in the Potomac River area's weather, especially high summer temperatures, may promote legislative action in the U.S. Congress on long-term global climate research. However, the current benign weather conditions in the political center of the United States tend to divert attention away from global climate research, diminishing the likelihood of significant expansion of research funding and greenhouse gas legislation.

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, null

282

Energy and global climate change: Why ORNL?  

SciTech Connect

Subtle signs of global warming have been detected in studies of the climate record of the past century after figuring in the cooling effects of sulfur emissions from volcanoes and human sources. According to the December 1995 report of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the earth`s surface temperature has increased by about 0.2{degrees}C per decade since 1975. the panel projects about a 2{degrees} increase in global temperature by 2100. The IPCC report states that pollutants-greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and fluorocarbons that warm the globe and sulfur emission that cool it-are responsible for recent patterns of climate change. {open_quotes}The balance of evidence,{close_quotes} states the report, {open_quotes}suggests that there is a discrenible human influence on global climate.{close_quotes} This human influence stems largely from fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and the burning of forests, and could intensify as populations grow and developing countries increase energy production and industrial development. The two facts have caught the attention of the news media and public. First, 1995 was declared the hottest year in the 140-year-long record of reliable global measurements. Second, recent years have been marked by an unusually high number of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, blizzards, and floods. In the 1990`s the world has become more aware of the prospect and possible impacts of global climate change. In the late 1950`s, global climate change was an unknown threat to the world`s environment and social systems. Except for a few ORNL researchers who had just completed their first briefing to the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission on the need to understand the global carbon cycle, the connection between rising carbon dioxide concentrations and potential changes in global climate was not common knowledge, nor were the consequences of climate change understood.

Farrell, M.P.

1995-12-31

283

Deep solar minimum and global climate changes  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

Hady, Ahmed A.

2013-05-01

284

Is Climate Change Predictable? Really?  

SciTech Connect

This project is the first application of a completely different approach to climate modeling, in which new prognostic equations are used to directly compute the evolution of two-point correlations. This project addresses three questions that are critical for the credibility of the science base for climate prediction: (1) What is the variability spectrum at equilibrium? (2) What is the rate of relaxation when subjected to external perturbations? (3) Can variations due to natural processes be distinguished from those due to transient external forces? The technical approach starts with the evolution equation for the probability distribution function and arrives at a prognostic equation for ensemble-mean two-point correlations, bypassing the detailed weather calculation. This work will expand our basic understanding of the theoretical limits of climate prediction and stimulate new experiments to perform with conventional climate models. It will furnish statistical estimates that are inaccessible with conventional climate simulations and likely will raise important new questions about the very nature of climate change and about how (and whether) climate change can be predicted. Solid progress on such issues is vital to the credibility of the science base for climate change research and will provide policymakers evaluating tradeoffs among energy technology options and their attendant environmental and economic consequences.

Dannevik, W P; Rotman, D A

2005-11-14

285

Sensitivity of Carbon Inventories to Natural Climate Cycles  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terrestrial carbon inventories and fluxes carry memories of climate variations and other perturbations for time scales of seasons to centuries. We have developed a simple multi-box model of the terrestrial carbon cycle forced by cyclic climate perturbations on net primary production (NPP) and residence times for each carbon pool. The model is used to explore the variability of carbon fluxes under "natural" conditions which serve as background variability to any changes induced by global warming. Preliminary model results suggest that a lower biospheric carbon inventory for an oscillatory climate (as in a drought/pluvial cycle) than for a constant climate. No secular trend in productivity is necessary to cause this loss, and the effect (increased atmospheric CO2) could create a positive feedback by leading to further drought/pluvial cycles (e.g. increased hydrologic cycle intensity associated with global warming). We will present results from sensitivity calculations that explore the spectrum of carbon inventory variations for different climatic periodicities.

Swann, A. L.; Fung, I. Y.

2007-12-01

286

Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.  

PubMed

Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate. PMID:19901326

Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

2009-11-09

287

Psychology: Climate change hits home  

Microsoft Academic Search

Engaging the public with climate change has proved difficult, in part because they see the problem as remote. New evidence suggests that direct experience of one anticipated impact -- flooding -- increases people's concern and willingness to save energy.

Elke U. Weber

2011-01-01

288

Climate Change and New Mexico.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The earth's climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The heat-trap...

1998-01-01

289

Climate Change and New Hampshire.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The earth's climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The heat-trap...

1997-01-01

290

Global Climate Change Key Indicators  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This website charts measurement of key indicators of global climate change. Simple explanations and "What Does This Mean?" sections accompany each area of sea level, carbon dioxide concentration, global surface temperature, Arctic sea ice and land ice.

291

NASA Climate Change Resource Reel  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This collection of resources from NASA includes animations and still shots covering a wide range of topics in climate, including the cryosphere, ocean sciences, changes on land, the atmosphere, and satellite images.

Nasa

292

Climate Change and Human Health  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this interactive, students explore, at their own pace, how global climate change may affect health issues. Issues include airborne diseases, developmental disorders, mental health disorders, vector-borne diseases and waterborne diseases.

Sciences, National I.; Domain, Teachers'

293

Assessing potential effects of global climate change on tropical freshwater fishes  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change will affect both the quality and the quantity of water in freshwater environments. Changes in air temperature and precipitation will alter the annual water temperature cycle and the annual water level cycle. Initial assessments of the effects of climate change on freshwater fishes of North America have focused on the potential thermal effects of climate change because of

J. D. Meisner; B. J. Shuter

1992-01-01

294

Diatom assemblage dynamics during abrupt climate change: the response of lacustrine diatoms to Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles during the last glacial period  

Microsoft Academic Search

The sedimentary record from the paleolake at Les Echets in eastern France allowed a reconstruction of the lacustrine response\\u000a to several abrupt climate shifts during the last glacial period referred to as Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) cycles. The high-resolution\\u000a diatom stratigraphy has revealed distinct species turnover events and large fluctuations in stable oxygen isotope values in\\u000a diatom frustules, as a response to

Linda Ampel; Barbara Wohlfarth; Jan Risberg; Daniel Veres; Melanie J. Leng; Päivi Kaislahti Tillman

2010-01-01

295

Global Climate Change Briefing Book  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This website presents general resources and legislative issues related to global climate change. The site includes greenhouse gas sources, trends and effects on the environment, the text of the Kyoto Protocol, and a glossary with acronyms. Other topics such as legal, economic and energy issues are also covered, and links to the latest updates on climate change from the White House and the National Academy of Sciences are found here.

Service, Congressional R.; Environment, National C.

296

Rapid cycle change sells itself.  

PubMed

Strategic quality management consultants at Quorum Health Resources, LLC, headquartered in Brentwood, TN, recently introduced rapid cycle change to hospital clients. The answers to three defined questions, the Plan-Do-Study-Act cycle, and testing the improvements on a small scale under a variety of conditions are the basis of rapid cycle change. The initial results are encouraging. To obtain a deeper evaluation of the clients' experience, a modified qualitative research methodology was utilized to obtain and analyze information. Five themes emerged that support rapid cycle change as an elegantly simple and effective model. PMID:10620886

Taylor, J A; Crowe, V L

297

Solar Activity and Global Climate Changes  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geomagnetic storms have a good correlation with solar activity and solar radiation variability. Many proton events and Geomagnetic storms have occurred during solar cycles21, 22, and 23. The solar activities during the last three cycles, gave us a good indication of the climatic change and its behavior during the 21st century. High energetic eruptive flares were recorded during the decline phase of the last three solar cycles. The appearances of the second peak on the decline phase of solar cycles have been detected. Halloween storms during Nov. 2003 and its effects on the geomagnetic storms have been studied analytically. The data of amplitude and phase of most common indicators of geomagnetic activities during solar cycle 23, have been analyzed.

Hady, Ahmed

2010-01-01

298

Global climate changes and the soil cover  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The relationships between climate changes and the soil cover are analyzed. The greenhouse effect induced by the rising concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, and many other trace gases in the air has been one of the main factors of the global climate warming in the past 30-40 years. The response of soils to climate changes is considered by the example of factual data on soil evolution in the dry steppe zone of Russia. Probable changes in the carbon cycle under the impact of rising CO2 concentrations are discussed. It is argued that this rise may have an effect of an atmospheric fertilizer and lead to a higher productivity of vegetation, additional input of organic residues into the soils, and activation of soil microflora. Soil temperature and water regimes, composition of soil gases, soil biotic parameters, and other dynamic soil characteristics are most sensitive to climate changes. For the territory of Russia, in which permafrost occupies more than 50% of the territory, the response of this highly sensitive natural phenomenon to climate changes is particularly important. Long-term data on soil temperatures at a depth of 40 cm are analyzed for four large regions of Russia. In all of them, except for the eastern sector of Russian Arctic, a stable trend toward the rise in the mean annual soil temperature. In the eastern sector (the Verkhoyansk weather station), the soil temperature remains stable.

Kudeyarov, V. N.; Demkin, V. A.; Gilichinskii, D. A.; Goryachkin, S. V.; Rozhkov, V. A.

2009-09-01

299

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and

Mike Hulme

2003-01-01

300

Terrestrial carbon-cycle feedback to climate warming: experimental evidence on plant regulation and impacts of biofuel feedstock harvest  

Microsoft Academic Search

Feedback between global carbon (C) cycles and climate change is one of the major uncertainties in projecting future global warming. Coupled carbon-climate models all demonstrated a positive feedback between terrestrial C cycle and climate warming. The positive feedback results from decreased net primary production (NPP) in most models and increased respiratory C release by all the models under climate warming.

YIQI LUO; REBECCA SHERRY; XUHUI ZHOU; SHIQIANG WAN

2009-01-01

301

Conceptual Understanding of Climate Change with a Simple Climate Model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies and teaching. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, the transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. It can be run on any PC computer and compute 200yrs climate scenarios within minutes. The simple model's climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure.

Dommenget, Dietmar; Floeter, Janine

2010-05-01

302

Vegetation and Climate changes in the South-Eastern Mediterranean during the Last Glacial-Interglacial cycle (86 ka): new marine pollen record  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Eastern Mediterranean, located at the meeting between the Mediterranean vegetation of the Eurasian continent and the desert vegetation of the Saharan-Arabian desert belt, is ideal for tracking changes in regional vegetation as function of climate changes. Reconstruction of these changes in the South-Eastern Mediterranean during the last 86 ka is based on a palynological record, from deep-sea core 9509,

D Langgut; A Almogi-Labin; M Bar-Matthews; M Weinstein-Evron

303

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This is a brief version of an in-depth report published as a book, which examines the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding used to describe current knowledge about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. The report identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, the book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future. The brief version at this site captures the highlights.

304

Climate change and biodiversity  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary There is already widespread change in the natural calendars (phenology) of plants and animals, as well as change in some species distributions. Now threshold change (sudden, fundamental change) in ecosystems is beginning to be observed in nature. At minimum, the natural world will experience an equal amount of warming to that which has already taken place. This all suggests

T. Lovejoy

2008-01-01

305

Study of Climate Change in the Arctic  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page describes why and how scientists study climate change in the Arctic. It includes information on the climate indices and important research concepts used by scientists to study climate change.

Overland, Jim; Soreide, Nancy; Bond, Nick

2000-01-01

306

Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions  

MedlinePLUS

... All Responses Is there a scientific consensus on climate change? The major scientific agencies of the United States ... or natural variations in climate responsible for the climate change being observed today? The Earth does go through ...

307

Tracking seasonal signs of climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

On 2 March, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN), a consortium of government, academic, and citizen scientists, launched a national program for volunteers to help observe the seasonal cycles of plants, including flowering, fruiting, and other seasonal events. The program will begin monitoring animals in 2010. Scientists and resource managers will use these observations to track effects of climate change on Earth's life-support systems.

Showstack, Randy

308

Climate change and food security.  

PubMed

Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change. PMID:16433099

Gregory, P J; Ingram, J S I; Brklacich, M

2005-11-29

309

Soil Moisture-Ecosystem-Climate Interactions in a Changing Climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soil moisture is a key variable of the climate system. It constrains plant transpiration and photosynthesis in several regions of the world, with consequent impacts on the water, energy and biogeochemical cycles (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2010). Moreover it is a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the climate system. Finally, it is involved in a number of feedbacks at the local, regional and global scales, and plays a major role in climate-change projections. This presentation will provide an overview on these interactions, based on several recent publications (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2010, Teuling et al. 2010, Hirschi et al. 2011). In particular, it will highlight possible impacts of soil moisture-ecosystem coupling for climate extremes such as heat waves and droughts, and the resulting interconnections between biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks in the context of climate change. Finally, it will also address recent regional- to global-scale trends in land hydrology and ecosystem functioning, as well as issues and potential avenues for investigating these trends (e.g. Jung et al. 2010, Mueller et al. 2011). References Hirschi, M., S.I. Seneviratne, V. Alexandrov, F. Boberg, C. Boroneant, O.B. Christensen, H. Formayer, B. Orlowsky, and P. Stepanek, 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geoscience, 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Jung, M., et al., 2010: Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nature, 467, 951-954. doi:10.1038/nature09396 Mueller, B., S.I. Seneviratne, et al.: Evaluation of global observations-based evapotranspiration datasets and IPCC AR4 simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06402, doi:10.1029/2010GL046230 Orlowsky, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2010: Statistical analyses of land-atmosphere feedbacks and their possible pitfalls. J. Climate, 23(14), 3918-3932 Seneviratne, S.I., T. Corti, E.L. Davin, M. Hirschi, E.B. Jaeger, I. Lehner, B. Orlowsky, and A.J. Teuling, 2010: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth-Science Reviews, 99, 3-4, 125-161, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004 Seneviratne, S.I., D. Lüthi, M. Litschi, and C. Schär, 2006: Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 443, 205-209. Teuling, A.J., S.I. Seneviratne, et al. 2010: Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves. Nature Geoscience, 3, 722-727, doi:10.1038/ngeo950.

Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Teuling, A.

2011-12-01

310

Indigenous health and climate change.  

PubMed

Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global-local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research. PMID:22594718

Ford, James D

2012-05-17

311

Climate change dialogues  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Human influence on the planet is undeniable. Making a switch from exploitation to maintenance of natural resources depends on a step change in communication, to convince the Earth's population of the necessity for a fundamental change of course.

2012-05-01

312

Climate Variability and Change in a Eutrophic Great Lakes Freshwater Embayment: Shifting Hydrodynamics and the Potential for Indirect Impacts on Biogeochemical Processes, Carbon Cycling and Hypoxia  

Microsoft Academic Search

Future changes in the climatic regime of the Great Lakes region have the potential to induce a variety of both direct (e.g. thermal) and indirect (e.g. biogeochemical) alterations in ecosystem function. In the case of the later, we have identified a statistically significant shift in wind direction of the average wind field over the Great Lakes basin that is consistent

J. V. Klump; J. T. Waples

2008-01-01

313

To What Degree? What Science is Telling Us About Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

What is science telling us about climate change? Leading climate change experts discuss one of the most complex scientific puzzles ever to confront humankind. Included is information on how climate change affects the carbon cycle, water cycle, and heat balance of the Earth.

314

Climate change impacts on forestry  

PubMed Central

Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. Our review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. We concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand.

Kirilenko, Andrei P.; Sedjo, Roger A.

2007-01-01

315

Congress probes climate change uncertainties  

Microsoft Academic Search

Policymakers are demanding information about climate change faster than it can be turned out by scientists. This conflict between politics and science was debated at a recent congressional hearing on priorities in global change research. On October 8 and 10, panels of scientists that included AGU president-elect Ralph J. Cicerone of the University of California attempted to identify scientific uncertainties

Lynn Teo Simarski

1991-01-01

316

Invasive species and climate change  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Invasive species challenge managers in their work of conserving and managing natural areas and are one of the most serious problems these managers face. Because invasive species are likely to spread in response to changes in climate, managers may need to change their approaches to invasive species management accordingly.

Middleton, Beth A.

2006-01-01

317

Faces of Climate Change: Introduction  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This is the first of three short videos showcasing the dramatic changes in Alaska's marine ecosystems through interviews with scientists and Alaska Natives. This introduction to the impacts of climate change in Alaska includes interviews with Alaska Natives, commentary by scientists, and footage from Alaska's Arctic.

Dugan, Darcy; Noaa Sea Grant, Alaska C.

318

Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

2010-01-01

319

Linkages between climate change and sustainable development  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change does not yet feature prominently within the environmental or economic policy agendas of developing countries. Yet evidence shows that some of the most adverse effects of climate change will be in developing countries, where populations are most vulnerable and least likely to easily adapt to climate change, and that climate change will affect the potential for development in

Noreen Beg; Jan Corfee Morlot; Ogunlade Davidson; Yaw Afrane-Okesse; Lwazikazi Tyani; Fatma Denton; Youba Sokona; Jean Philippe Thomas; Emilio Lèbre La Rovere; Jyoti K. Parikh; Kirit Parikh; A. Atiq Rahman

2002-01-01

320

Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections  

Microsoft Academic Search

Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation

Ambarish V. Karmalkar; Raymond S. Bradley; Henry F. Diaz

2011-01-01

321

Climate Change Effects on Stream and River Biological Indicators: A Preliminary Analysis.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Climate change is projected to affect aquatic ecosystems through changes in water temperature, hydrological cycles, and degree days. These effects will manifest themselves through changes in community composition, phenology, number of reproductive cycles,...

2008-01-01

322

The Climate of Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Changes in information technology, in institutional or societal imperatives, and in user expectations are forcing library administrators to re-examine not only the library's basic services but also the organizational structures which have been created over time to support those services. Organizational change-particularly structural change-is prescribed. The traditional separation of the two major divisions of libraries, technical services and public services,

Patricia M. Larsen

1991-01-01

323

Species richness changes lag behind climate change.  

PubMed

Species-energy theory indicates that recent climate warming should have driven increases in species richness in cool and species-poor parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We confirm that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970-82, but much more slowly than predicted from changes of climate: on average, only one-third of the predicted increase has taken place. The resultant species assemblages are increasingly dominated by generalist species that were able to respond quickly. The time lag is confirmed by the successful introduction of many species to climatically suitable areas beyond their ranges. Our results imply that it may be decades or centuries before the species richness and composition of biological communities adjusts to the current climate. PMID:16777739

Menéndez, Rosa; Megías, Adela González; Hill, Jane K; Braschler, Brigitte; Willis, Stephen G; Collingham, Yvonne; Fox, Richard; Roy, David B; Thomas, Chris D

2006-06-22

324

Fisheries and Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

When populations of harvestable fish start to decline, managers look for explanations of the changes throughout the Earth system. In this activity, the impact of global climate change on marine and Great Lakes fish is considered. First, decline in the striped bass population of the North Atlantic, noted in the Downeaster Alexa song by Billy Joel, is examined with spreadsheet analysis and on-line searches of National Marine Fisheries Service databases. In a second investigation, ArcView generates a model of the Lake Erie depths that could be associated with global climate change (shallower water). Students identify fish species that use nearshore shallows for spawning and nursery areas, and speculate on the impact of the lower water. In both activities, the thermal niche of the species is considered as a factor in where fish populations may migrate with new climate regimes.

Fortner, Rosanne; Merry, Carolyn

2002-07-31

325

Interactive Quizzes on Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This website allows you to test your knowledge on 5 topics. Warm Up: Test your knowledge about global temperature change and its impact on Earth's climate; Freeze Frames: How much do you know about glaciers and ice caps?; Sea Change: Test your knowledge of sea level rise and its effect on global populations; It's A Gas: Test your knowledge of carbon dioxide and why it's so important to climate stability and our quality of life; Each test consists of 10 questions and are immediately scored. The final module, 10 Things You Never Knew About Earth: Discover some amazing and little-known facts about our home planet, allows you to learn facts about the Earth and Climate Change.

326

Abrupt Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This lesson focuses on a current issue in science in order to help students understand the process by which scientific knowledge is developed and refined. The goal of science is to advance human understanding of the natural world and that sometimes means changing long-held views. According to recent studies, many students think that changes come mainly through facts and improved observational and measuring technology. However, they often do not make the distinction that advancements or changes can come from both new observations and reinterpreting old observations.

Science NetLinks (AAAS;)

2008-04-28

327

Atmospheric rivers in changing climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atmospheric rivers are impressive, intermittent circulation features in mid-latitude regions of the globe that can cause disastrous floods if they smash against mountainous terrain. While discovered by meteorologists and long feared by hydrologists they have only recently come to the broader attention of climate scientists. In a new letter published in Environmental Research Letters, Lavers et al (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 034010) investigate atmospheric rivers reaching the British Isles in the context of climate change. They consider these potentially devastating meteorological features in present and future climate model scenarios, and walk through possible mechanisms that could cause them to strengthen. This is a refreshingly new work that estimates extreme events in future climates with an impact driven approach.

Liepert, Beate G.

2013-09-01

328

Public Engagement on Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change communication is complicated by complexity of the scientific problem, multiple perspectives on the magnitude of the risk from climate change, often acrimonious disputes between scientists, high stakes policy options, and overall politicization of the issue. Efforts to increase science literacy as a route towards persuasion around the need for a policy like cap and trade have failed, because the difficulty that a scientist has in attempting to make sense of the social and political complexity is very similar to the complexity facing the general public as they try to make sense of climate science itself. In this talk I argue for a shift from scientists and their institutions as information disseminators to that of public engagement and enablers of public participation. The goal of engagement is not just to inform, but to enable, motivate and educate the public regarding the technical, political, and social dimensions of climate change. Engagement is a two-way process where experts and decision-makers seek input and learn from the public about preferences, needs, insights, and ideas relative to climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, solutions and policy options. Effective public engagement requires that scientists detach themselves from trying to control what the public does with the acquired knowledge and motivation. The goal should not be to "sell" the public on particular climate change solutions, since such advocacy threatens public trust in scientists and their institutions. Conduits for public engagement include the civic engagement approach in the context of community meetings, and perhaps more significantly, the blogosphere. Since 2006, I have been an active participant in the climate blogosphere, focused on engaging with people that are skeptical of AGW. A year ago, I started my own blog Climate Etc. at judithcurry.com. The demographic that I have focused my communication/engagement activities are the technically educated and scientifically literate public, many of whom have become increasingly skeptical of climate science the more they investigate the topic. Specific issues that this group has with climate science include concerns that science that cannot easily be separated from risk assessment and value judgments; concern that assessments (e.g. IPCC) have become a Maxwell's daemon for climate research; inadequate assessment of our ignorance of this complex scientific issue; elite scientists and scientific institutions losing credibility with the public; political exploitation of the public's lack of understanding; and concerns about the lack of public accountability of climate science and climate models that are being used as the basis for far reaching decisions and policies. Individuals in this group have the technical ability to understand and examine climate science arguments and are not prepared to cede judgment on this issue to the designated and self-proclaimed experts. This talk will describe my experiences in engaging with this group and what has been learned, both by myself and by participants in the discussion at Climate Etc.

Curry, J.

2011-12-01

329

Teaching About Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Association of American Geographers (AAG) presents free, online professional development modules for geography and social studies teachers at middle and high school levels who are preparing to teach about global climate change. The modules provide information and materials including assessments, overview of the Earth system science, frequently asked questions about global climate change, examples of how to address common student misconceptions and an interactive resource library that delivers a resource list to your e-mail inbox. Free registration is required to access the complete materials and resources.

330

United Nations Environment Programme: Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This portal provides access to information on the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) initiatives on the issue of climate change. Materials include UNEP's areas of focus on addressing climate change (climate, finance, and business; emissions mitigation; carbon sequestration; vulnerability and adaptation to climate change; and others); links to UNEP Climate Change Centres; links to partner organizations; and links to information and media activities. There are also links to multimedia materials (posters, films, and video), printed publications on climate change, maps and graphics, and links to other organizations working on the issue of climate change.

331

EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDL Pilot. Project Research Plan.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Global climate change affects the fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle. Evidence is growing that climate change will have significant ramifications for the nation's freshwater ecosystems, as deviations in atmospheric temperature and precipitation...

B. Duncan H. Herron J. Butcher S. Klein

2013-01-01

332

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Feedback to Climate Warming: Experimental Evidence  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global climate modeling has demonstrated that climate warming would stimulate respiratory CO2 release from the terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, which in turn leads to more warming in the climate system. This positive feedback between the climate change and the terrestrial carbon cycle can form a vicious cycle that potentially leads to a dangerous threat to ecosystem functioning and service. Some of the key processes underlying this feedback loop, however, have not been carefully examined by experimental studies. Those key processes include temperature sensitivity of ecosystem carbon influx; regulation of carbon processes by warming-induced changes in species composition, and nutrient and water availability; and phenology and timing of ecosystem processes under warming. We have conducted two warming experiments in a Southern Great Plains prairie to examine ecosystem responses to climate warming. We used infrared heaters to elevate soil temperature by approximately 2.0 and 4.0 oC, respectively, during the experimental period. Our results indicate that plant biomass growth increased by approximately 20% in the warmed plots in comparison to that in the control plots. The increased plant productivity likely resulted from extended length of growing seasons since warming advanced phenology of early-flowering species and delayed phenology of late-flowering species, leading to an extension of the growing season. Leaf photosynthesis, however, was not strongly affected by warming. Warming also considerably increased C4 plant biomass and caused slight decreases in growth of C3 plants. Increased C4 biomass and litter production resulted in decreases in quality and decomposition of bulk litter at the ecosystem scale, leading to an increase in litter mass at the soil surface. Soil respiration did not significantly increase in the first two years but increased by 8-10% in the last several years, largely due to increased root respiration and litter pool sizes. We did not observe much change in soil C content under warming, indicating that increased plant biomass counterbalanced the increased carbon loss via respiration. The increased biomass production was accompanied by increases in plant nitrogen uptake and use efficiency. Decreased litter quality and increased litter pools may trigger a negative nitrogen feedback to decrease nitrogen releases from litter and availability for plants over time. Overall, our data from the Great Plains prairie do not support the notion that warming stimulation of soil respiration is the major feedback process to climate change. A realistic prediction of the future carbon cycle and climate change may require more ecosystem processes other than the respiration to be incorporated into climate models.

Luo, Y.; Zhou, X.; Sherry, R.

2006-12-01

333

AEROSOL, CLOUDS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE  

SciTech Connect

Earth's climate is thought to be quite sensitive to changes in radiative fluxes that are quite small in absolute magnitude, a few watts per square meter, and in relation to these fluxes in the natural climate. Atmospheric aerosol particles exert influence on climate directly, by scattering and absorbing radiation, and indirectly by modifying the microphysical properties of clouds and in turn their radiative effects and hydrology. The forcing of climate change by these indirect effects is thought to be quite substantial relative to forcing by incremental concentrations of greenhouse gases, but highly uncertain. Quantification of aerosol indirect forcing by satellite- or ground-based remote sensing has proved quite difficult in view of inherent large variation in the pertinent observables such as cloud optical depth, which is controlled mainly by liquid water path and only secondarily by aerosols. Limited work has shown instances of large magnitude of aerosol indirect forcing, with local instantaneous forcing upwards of 50 W m{sup 66}-2. Ultimately it will be necessary to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models to accurately identify the anthropogenic forcing at present and over secular time and to assess the influence of this forcing in the context of other forcings of climate change. While the elements of aerosol processes that must be represented in models describing the evolution and properties of aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation particles are known, many important components of these processes remain to be understood and to be represented in models, and the models evaluated against observation, before such model-based representations can confidently be used to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models.

SCHWARTZ, S.E.

2005-09-01

334

Tourism and climate change: An international perspective  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper addresses the implications of climate change for tourism through a survey of national tourism and meteorological organisations. While climate change may have far?reaching consequences for tourism, it is shown that while most respondents felt that climate is important to their country's tourism industry, very few were aware of climate change research specifically related to tourism. Almost half felt

Geoffrey Wall; Catherine Badke

1994-01-01

335

Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary  

Microsoft Academic Search

Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by

N. Bhatti; R. R. Cirillo; R. K. Dixon

1995-01-01

336

Simulated Climate Change by the Community Climate System Model  

Microsoft Academic Search

Simulations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) are presented that consider the predicted magnitude and spatial patterns of natural climate variability and anthropogenically forced climate change. These simulations will consider changes from the inter-annual to century time scales for both the 20th and 21st centuries. Special focus will be given to the simulated variability and change in Earth's hydrologic

J. T. Kiehl

2001-01-01

337

Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.  

PubMed

The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. PMID:18556546

Bonan, Gordon B

2008-06-13

338

The origin of climate changes.  

PubMed

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world. PMID:18819661

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

339

The Atlantic Climate Change Program  

SciTech Connect

The Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) is a component of NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program. ACCP is directed at determining the role of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean on global atmospheric climate. Efforts and progress in four ACCP elements are described. Advances include (1) descriptions of decadal and longer-term variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system of the North Atlantic; (2) development of tools needed to perform long-term model runs of coupled simulations of North Atlantic air-sea interaction; (3) definition of mean and time-dependent characteristics of the thermohaline circulation; and (4) development of monitoring strategies for various elements of the thermohaline circulation. 20 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

Molinari, R.L. (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States)); Battisti, D. (Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)); Bryan, K. (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States)); Walsh, J. (Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States))

1994-07-01

340

The Atlantic Climate Change Program.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) is a component of NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program. ACCP is directed at determining the role of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean on global atmospheric climate. Efforts and progress in four ACCP elements are described. Advances include 1) descriptions of decadal and longer-term variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system of the North Atlantic; 2) development of tools needed to perform long-term model runs of coupled simulations of North Atlantic air-sea interaction; 3) definition of mean and time-dependent characteristics of the thermohaline circulation; and 4) development of monitoring strategies for various elements of the thermohaline circulation.

Molinari, Robert L.; Battisti, David; Bryan, Kirk; Walsh, John

1994-07-01

341

Changes in the Northern Hemisphere annual cycle: Implications for paleoclimatology?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Paleoclimatologists generally consider past epochs on the basis of whether they were warmer or colder than today's climate. It is often not possible, however, to consider potential changes in the annual cycle because of limited seasonal emphases in many climate proxies. Using both long European instrumental records and longer European and Chinese documentary series, we show that winters have warmed

P. D. Jones; K. R. Briffa; T. J. Osborn

2003-01-01

342

Path Dependence of Regional Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Path dependence of the climate response to CO2 forcing has been investigated from a global mean perspective, with evidence suggesting that long-term global mean temperature and precipitation changes are proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, and independent of emissions pathway. Little research, however, has been done on path dependence of regional climate changes, particularly in areas that could be affected by tipping points. Here, we utilize the UVic Earth System Climate Model version 2.9, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. It consists of a 3-dimensional ocean general circulation model, coupled with a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, and a thermodynamic energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere. This is then coupled with a terrestrial carbon cycle model and an ocean carbon-cycle model containing an inorganic carbon and marine ecosystem component. Model coverage is global with a zonal resolution of 3.6 degrees and meridional resolution of 1.8 degrees. The model is forced with idealized emissions scenarios across five cumulative emission groups (1300 GtC, 2300 GtC, 3300 GtC, 4300 GtC, and 5300 GtC) to explore the path dependence of (and the possibility of hysteresis in) regional climate changes. Emission curves include both fossil carbon emissions and emissions from land use changes, and span a variety of peak and decline scenarios with varying emission rates, as well as overshoot and instantaneous pulse scenarios. Tipping points being explored include those responsible for the disappearance of summer Arctic sea-ice, the irreversible melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the dieback of the Amazonian Rainforest. Preliminary results suggest that global mean climate change after cessation of CO2 emissions is independent of the emissions pathway, only varying with total cumulative emissions, in accordance with results from earlier studies. Forthcoming analysis will investigate path dependence of regional climate change. Some evidence exists to support the idea of hysteresis in the Greenland Ice Sheet, and since tipping points represent non-linear elements of the climate system, we suspect that the other tipping points might also show path dependence.

Herrington, Tyler; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2013-04-01

343

Climate Change and California. Staff Report.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Change is happening to Californias climate. The frequency of extreme climatic events worldwide indicates that climate variability may be on the rise and scientists predict global warming will significantly increase that variability in the future. Californ...

2003-01-01

344

Climate change in Ireland from precipitation and streamflow observations  

Microsoft Academic Search

On the basis of General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments with increased CO2, many parts of the northern latitudes including western Europe, are expected to have enhanced hydrologic cycles. Using observations of precipitation and streamflow from Ireland, we test for climatic and hydrologic change in this maritime climate of the northeast Atlantic. Five decades of hourly precipitation (at eight sites) and

G. Kiely

1999-01-01

345

Role of Biochar in Mitigation of Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

By virtue of the large fraction of the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle controlled by human activities, agroecosystems are both sources and sinks for greenhouse gases. Their potential role in mitigation of climate change thus depends on a dual strategy of decreasing greenhouse gas emissions while increasing sinks so that the net impact on climate warming is less than at present.

Johannes C. Lehmann; James E. Amonette; Kelli G. Roberts

2010-01-01

346

The Role of Simple Models in Understanding Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The study of the Earth System has a long tradition of using simplifled models to achieve a quantitative understanding of processes that are responsible for climate change. The examples of the carbon cycle and the ocean circulation in shaping past and future climate evolution are discussed here and the development from early box models to dynamical models of reduced complexity

Thomas F. Stocker

2002-01-01

347

10 CFR 960.4-2-4 - Climatic changes.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

... (1) A surface-water system such that expected climatic cycles over the next 100,000 years would not adversely affect waste...setting in which climatic changes have had little effect on the hydrologic system throughout the Quaternary Period. (c)...

2013-01-01

348

Smithsonian climate change exhibits  

Microsoft Academic Search

Two new museum exhibits, ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely'' and ``Atmosphere: Change is in the Air'' opened 15 April at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C., in partnership with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. In ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely,'' anecdotes from indigenous polar people reveal

Mohi Kumar

2006-01-01

349

Orbital changes and climate  

Microsoft Academic Search

At the 41,000-period of orbital tilt, summer insolation forces a lagged response in northern ice sheets. This delayed ice signal is rapidly transferred to nearby northern oceans and landmasses by atmospheric dynamics. These ice-driven responses lead to late-phased changes in atmospheric CO2 that provide positive feedback to the ice sheets and also project ‘late’ 41-K forcing across the tropics and

William F. Ruddiman

2006-01-01

350

Climate change and trace gases.  

PubMed

Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment. PMID:17513270

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

2007-07-15

351

A Lesson on Climate Change.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

Lewis, Jim

352

1000 years of climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Solar activity has been observed to vary on decadal and centennial time scales. Recent evidence (Bond, 2002) points to a major semi-periodic variation of approximately 1,500 yrs. For this reason, and because high resolution proxy records are limited to the past thousand years or so, assessing the role of the sun's variability on climate change over this time f ame

C. Keller

2002-01-01

353

A Lesson on Climate Change.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

Lewis, Jim

354

Climatic Change and Human Evolution.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)|

Garratt, John R.

1995-01-01

355

Global Climate Change Interaction Web.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)|

Fortner, Rosanne W.

1998-01-01

356

Impacts of Climate Change Animation  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site presents one of three animated films for schoolchildren, commissioned by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. An emotive and visual animation conveys the effects climate change will have on marine ecosystems and suggests ways to minimize our impact.

2010-01-01

357

Urban development and climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

With growing worldwide concern about global climate change, this article asks two critical questions: What reduction in vehicle?miles traveled (VMT) is possible in the USA with compact development rather than continuing urban sprawl?; and What reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would accompany such a reduction in VMT? Based on four different planning literatures, the answer to the first question appears

Reid Ewing; Keith Bartholomew; Steve Winkelman; Jerry Walters; Geoffrey Anderson

2008-01-01

358

Conservation, Development and Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Deforestation in Latin America, especially in the A mazon Basin, is a major source of greenhouse gases such as CO 2 which contribute to global warming. Protected area s play a vital role in minimizing forest loss and in supplyi ng key environmental services, including carbon sequestration and rainfall regulat ion, which mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change amidst

Anthony Hall

359

Climate Change Wildlife and Wildlands  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This video focuses on the science of climate change and its impacts on wildlife on land and in the sea, and their habitats in the U.S. There are short sections on walruses, coral reefs, migrating birds and their breeding grounds, freshwater fish, bees, etc. Video concludes with some discussion about solutions, including reduce/recyle/reuse, energy conservation, backyard habitats, citizen scientists.

Service, U. S.; Program, U. S.

360

Climate Change and Agricultural Production  

Microsoft Academic Search

This document discusses the impact that global climate change has on food production both globally and in Latin America and the Caribbean. The author discusses environmental issues including extreme temperatures, water scarcity, flooding, and soil erosion. Using available information, this document discusses the impacts of these issues on Mesoamerica, the Caribbean Islands, the Andean Community, and the Southern Cone. Finally,

Rodomiro Ortiz

2012-01-01

361

Creating a New Model for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation for Critical Infrastructure: The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NYC Panel on Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, launched in August 2008, aims to secure the city's critical infrastructure against rising seas, higher temperatures and fluctuating water supplies projected to result from climate change. The Climate Change Adaptation Task Force is part of PlaNYC, the city's long- term sustainability plan, and is composed of over 30 city and state agencies, public authorities and companies that operate the region's roads, bridges, tunnels, mass transit, and water, sewer, energy and telecommunications systems - all with critical infrastructure identified as vulnerable. It is one of the most comprehensive adaptation efforts yet launched by an urban region. To guide the effort, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has formed the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), modeled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Experts on the panel include climatologists, sea-level rise specialists, adaptation experts, and engineers, as well as representatives from the insurance and legal sectors. The NPCC is developing planning tools for use by the Task Force members that provide information about climate risks, adaptation and risk assessment, prioritization frameworks, and climate protection levels. The advisory panel is supplying climate change projections, helping to identify at- risk infrastructure, and assisting the Task Force in developing adaptation strategies and guidelines for design of new structures. The NPCC will also publish an assessment report in 2009 that will serve as the foundation for climate change adaptation in the New York City region, similar to the IPCC reports. Issues that the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NPCC are addressing include decision- making under climate change uncertainty, effective ways for expert knowledge to be incorporated into public actions, and strategies for maintaining consistent and effective attention to long-term climate change even as municipal governments cycle through their administrations.

Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W. D.; Freed, A. M.

2008-12-01

362

Climate Science in a Nutshell: Climate Change Around the World?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This video is part of the Climate Science in a Nutshell video series. This short video looks at the effects of climate change happening right now around the globe, including: more extreme weather events, droughts, forest fires, land use changes, altered ranges of disease-carrying insects, and the loss of some agricultural products. It concludes with a discussion of the differences among weather, climate variability and climate change.

Nutshell, Planet; Network, Utah E.

363

Simulated climate and CO2—Induced climate change over Western Europe  

Microsoft Academic Search

The use of a relatively high resolution general circulation model (the Meteorological Office 5-layer model) to determine climate changes for impact studies is evaluated. The simulation of present day climate over Western Europe is assessed by comparing not only different seasons with climatological data, but also the mean annual cycle and the frequency of extreme events. It is found that

C. A. Wilson; J. F. B. Mitchell

1987-01-01

364

Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be combined in various ways to comprise focused, lively, accurate primers to what we all need to know about climate change. With college classrooms as our intended venue, we are looking at such topics as why the weather in your backyard tells you nothing about global climate change-but a good deal about climate; how tiny molecules warm the planet; how snowpack, drought, bark beetles, fire suppression, and wildfire interact as stress complexes; why (and where) women, children, and the poor are especially vulnerable to harm from climate change; what international policy negotiators argue about; what poets and artists can contribute to understanding and solving the climate problem; and why ecologists are worried about changes in the seasonal timing of natural events. We will describe what we have done and how we did it; offer a few tips to others who might wish to do something similar; and introduce our website.

Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

2011-12-01

365

Environment and Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This module is intended to convey a broad understanding of the nature of climate change and its potential impacts. Students will come to understand the effects of radiation imbalance in the Arctic, fluctuations in albedo, and ecological consequences of decreasing albedo in the Arctic. Upon completion of the module, they will be able to explain: the consequences of decreasing stratospheric ozone, potential hazards of POP's entering Arctic food chains, and the possible impacts of environmental changes on traditional lifestyles in the Arctic.

366

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen.  

PubMed

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at -290 to -510 Tg CO(2)e on a GTP(20) basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP(100) basis, combustion contributes just -16 to -95 Tg CO(2)e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N(2)O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N(2)O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO(2) emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change. PMID:22547815

Pinder, Robert W; Davidson, Eric A; Goodale, Christine L; Greaver, Tara L; Herrick, Jeffrey D; Liu, Lingli

2012-04-30

367

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen  

PubMed Central

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N2O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO2 equivalents (CO2e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at ?290 to ?510 Tg CO2e on a GTP20 basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP100 basis, combustion contributes just ?16 to ?95 Tg CO2e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N2O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N2O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO2 emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change.

Pinder, Robert W.; Davidson, Eric A.; Goodale, Christine L.; Greaver, Tara L.; Herrick, Jeffrey D.; Liu, Lingli

2012-01-01

368

Detecting Climate Change in the Great Lakes  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Great Lakes hold specific significance to the economy and ecology of the eight states it unites. For this project, using the 25-year long record of meteorological data from NOAA's National Buoy Data Center (NDBC) for ice-free conditions, it can be shown that despite large variability, climate change effects on the Great Lakes region can be detected. This was achieved by: (1) compiling mean monthly values from raw hourly data from the NOAA NDBC for period 2002-2005 which had not been done yet; (2) statistically analyzing monthly data for period 1980- 2005; and (3) comparing our results to other climate indicators related to events such as ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation), PNA (Northern American Pattern), and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Preliminary findings for the considered period indicated an increase in the temperature median of 2°C; a decrease in the high extreme of pressure correlating to an increase in the high extreme of wind velocity. Additionally, in dependence on the buoy location, we observed two to four-year cycle in the summer mean lake temperature values. Understanding and attributing such climate behavior in the Great Lakes can help in both adjusting economically to probable changes, as well as understanding global climate changes.

Oaida, C. M.; Andronova, N. G.

2007-05-01

369

Air pollution and climate: Response mechanisms on the hydrological cycle  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol particles resulting from human activity of fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning have considerably modified the chemical composition of the atmosphere and may affect the climate system. Greenhouse gas warming is stronger in high than in low latitudes resulting in a weaker meridional gradient. Thus less potential energy is transformed into kinetic energy. On the other hand, aerosol load is high in industrialized regions of the northern hemisphere and therefore exerts a cooling. This increases the meridional temperature gradient and hence available potential energy of the NH mid-latitudes. These changes in the baroclinicity must affect the hydrological cycle. Other changes due to the aerosol effect are a decrease of short-wave radiation at the surface, which reduces the latent heat flux. Furthermore, changes of long-wave radiative fluxes occur and have an impact on the temperature profile and stability of the atmosphere. Changes in short and long-wave radiation affect cloud formation and precipitation. In addition aerosol particles serve as cloud condensation nuclei and influence the cloud physical and optical properties and the precipitation efficiency of clouds. We performed a series of climate equilibrium simulations to investigate these responses of the hydrological cycle. We will show the interactions between the aerosol particles and the hydrological cycle and we will analyze the different mechanisms of changing precipitation amount and its geographical distribution.

Feichter, J.; Liepert, B.; Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.

2003-04-01

370

Ecosystem Responses to Global Climate Change: Moving Beyond Color Mapping  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This peer-reviewed article from BioScience is on the effects of climate change on ecosystems. Current assessments of climate-change effects on ecosystems use two key approaches: (1) empirical synthesis and modeling of species range shifts and life-cycle processes that coincide with recent evidence of climate warming, from which scenarios of ecosystem change are inferred; and (2) experiments examining plant-soil interactions under simulated climate warming. Both kinds of assessment offer indisputable evidence that climate change and its effects on ecosystems are ongoing. However, both approaches often provide conservative estimates of the effects of climate change on ecosystems, because they do not consider the interplay and feedback among higher trophic levels in ecosystems, which may have a large effect on plant species composition and on ecosystem services such as productivity. Understanding the impacts of these top-down processes on ecosystems is critical for determining large-scale ecosystem response to climate change. Using examples of links between climate forcing, trophic interactions, and changes in ecosystem state in selected terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems, we show that the ability to understand and accurately forecast future effects of climate change requires an integrated perspective, linking climate and the biotic components of the ecosystem as a whole.

OSWALD J. SCHMITZ, ERIC POST, CATHERINE E. BURNS, and KEVIN M. JOHNSTON (;)

2003-12-01

371

Engaging the Public in Climate Change Research  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Providing opportunities for individuals to contribute to a better understanding of climate change is the hallmark of Project BudBurst (www.budburst.org). This highly successful, national citizen science program, currently finishing its third year, is bringing climate change education outreach to thousands of individuals. Project BudBurst is a national citizen science initiative designed to engage the public in observations of phenological (life cycle) events that raise awareness of climate change, and create a cadre of informed citizen scientists. Citizen science programs such as Project BudBurst provide the opportunity for students and interested laypersons to actively participate in scientific research. Such programs are important not only from an educational perspective, but because they also enable scientists to broaden the geographic and temporal scale of their observations. The goals of Project BudBurst are to 1) increase awareness of phenology as an area of scientific study; 2) Increase awareness of the impacts of changing climates on plants; and 3) increase science literacy by engaging participants in the scientific process. In anticipation of the 2010 campaign, Project BudBurst has developed and released innovative and exciting projects with a special focus in the field of phenology and climate change. The collaborations between Project BudBurst and other organizations are producing unique campaigns for engaging the public in environmental research. The special project foci include on-the-spot and in-the-field data reporting via mobile phones, an emphasis on urban tree phenology data, as well as monitoring of native gardens across the US National Wildlife Refuge System. This presentation will provide an overview of Project Budburst and the new special projects, and share results from 2007-2009. Project BudBurst is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, the Chicago Botanic Garden, and the University of Montana.

Meymaris, K. K.; Henderson, S.; Alaback, P.; Havens, K.; Schwarz Ballard, J.

2009-12-01

372

Risk management and climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The selection of climate policies should be an exercise in risk management reflecting the many relevant sources of uncertainty. Studies of climate change and its impacts rarely yield consensus on the distribution of exposure, vulnerability or possible outcomes. Hence policy analysis cannot effectively evaluate alternatives using standard approaches, such as expected utility theory and benefit-cost analysis. This Perspective highlights the value of robust decision-making tools designed for situations such as evaluating climate policies, where consensus on probability distributions is not available and stakeholders differ in their degree of risk tolerance. A broader risk-management approach enables a range of possible outcomes to be examined, as well as the uncertainty surrounding their likelihoods.

Kunreuther, Howard; Heal, Geoffrey; Allen, Myles; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Field, Christopher B.; Yohe, Gary

2013-05-01

373

Changing feedbacks in the climate- biosphere system  

Microsoft Academic Search

Ecosystems influence climate through multiple pathways, primarily by changing the energy, water, and green- house-gas balance of the atmosphere. Consequently, efforts to mitigate climate change through modification of one pathway, as with carbon in the Kyoto Protocol, only partially address the issue of ecosystem-climate interactions. For example, the cooling of climate that results from carbon sequestration by plants may be

F F SSttuuaarrtt; CChhaappiinn IIIIII

374

The ACIA, climate change and fisheries  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) is a project of the intergovernmental Arctic Council, intended to synthesize knowledge of the effects of climate change on the Arctic. This paper is based on the primary output of the ACIA project, a 1042 page book entitled Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Our concern is with the effects of Arctic climate change on fisheries.

William E. Schrank

2007-01-01

375

Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Increasing concern over the implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of species-climate envelope models to project species extinction risk under climate- change scenarios. However, recent studies have demonstrated significant variability in model predictions and there remains a pressing need to validate models and to reduce uncertainties. Model validation is problematic as predictions are made for

MIGUEL B. A RAUJO; R ICHARD G. P EARSON; W ILFRIED T HUILLER; MARKUS E RHARD

2005-01-01

376

Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Increasing concern over the implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of species-climate envelope models to project species extinction risk under climate- change scenarios. However, recent studies have demonstrated significant variability in model predictions and there remains a pressing need to validate models and to reduce uncertainties. Model validation is problematic as predictions are made for

MIGUEL B. A RAUJO; W ILFRIED T HUILLER

377

America's Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This video production is a part of a four-panel report from the National Academies' America's Climate Choices project. The video maps out the realm of our accumulated knowledge regarding climate change and charts a path forward, urging that research on climate change enter a new era focused on the needs of decision makers.

Academies, National

378

Thermohaline circulations and global climate change  

SciTech Connect

Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change'' is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO{sub 2}-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced Co{sub 2}, changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 12 months has proceeded in several directions.

Hanson, H.P.

1992-01-01

379

Thermohaline circulations and global climate change  

SciTech Connect

This report discusses research activities conducted during the period 15 January 1992--14 December 1992. Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany C0[sub 2]-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced C0[sub 2], changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water Production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 11 months has proceeded according to the continuation discussion of last January and several new results have arisen.

Hanson, H.P.

1992-01-01

380

A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  

SciTech Connect

In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a serious change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.

Bolin, B. [University of Stockholm, Stockholm (Sweden)

2007-11-15

381

The effects of climate change on tourism  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is one of the major environmental issues facing the world today. The ongoing global warming has had and will continue to have serious impact on natural environment. The impact of climate change on the natural environment is manifested in changes in geography, landscape and ecosystems. Tourism is one of the sectors causing global climate change. This is an

S. K. Yazdi; B. Shakouri

2010-01-01

382

Ecological Restoration and Global Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

There is an increasing consensus that global climate change occurs and that potential changes in climate are likely to have important regional consequences for biota and ecosystems. Ecological restoration, including (re)- afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded land, is included in the array of potential human responses to cli- mate change. However, the implications of climate change for the broader practice

James A. Harris; Richard J. Hobbs; Eric Higgs; James Aronson

2006-01-01

383

Extinction risk from climate change.  

PubMed

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration. PMID:14712274

Thomas, Chris D; Cameron, Alison; Green, Rhys E; Bakkenes, Michel; Beaumont, Linda J; Collingham, Yvonne C; Erasmus, Barend F N; De Siqueira, Marinez Ferreira; Grainger, Alan; Hannah, Lee; Hughes, Lesley; Huntley, Brian; Van Jaarsveld, Albert S; Midgley, Guy F; Miles, Lera; Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A; Peterson, A Townsend; Phillips, Oliver L; Williams, Stephen E

2004-01-01

384

1000 years of climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solar activity has been observed to vary on decadal and centennial time scales. Recent evidence (Bond, 2002) points to a major semi-periodic variation of approximately 1,500 yrs. For this reason, and because high resolution proxy records are limited to the past thousand years or so, assessing the role of the sun's variability on climate change over this time f ame has received much attention. A pressingr application of these assessments is the attempt to separate the role of the sun from that of various anthropogenic forcings in the past century and a half. This separation is complicated by the possible existence of natural variability other than solar, and by the fact that the time-dependence of solar and anthropogenic forcings is very similar over the past hundred years or so. It has been generally assumed that solar forcing is direct, i.e. changes in sun's irradiance. However, evidence has been put forth suggesting that there exist various additional indirect forcings that could be as large as or even exceed direct forcing (modulation of cosmic ray - induced cloudiness, UV- induced stratospheric ozone change s, or oscillator -driven changes in the Pacific Ocean). Were such forcings to be large, they could account for nearly all 20th Century warming, relegating anthropogenic effects to a minor role. Determination of climate change over the last thousand years offers perhaps the best way to assess the magnitude of total solar forcing, thus allowing its comparison with that of anthropogenic sources. Perhaps the best proxy records for climate variation in the past 1,000 yrs have been variations in temperat ure sensitive tree rings (Briffa and Osborne, 2002). A paucity of such records in the Southern Hemisphere has largely limited climate change determinations to the subtropical NH. Two problems with tree rings are that the rings respond to temperature differently with the age of the tree, and record largely the warm, growing season only. It appears that both these problems have been adequately solved although caution is warranted. A promising adjunct to tree rings is actual measurement of temperatures in boreholes. Inversion of such records gives low frequency temperatures that are potentially more accurate than any proxy- derived ones. All these records give a fairly consistent picture of at least one major warming and cooling extreme (Medieval Warming Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Many modeling efforts using direct solar forcing have been done. These typically employ proxy data (sunspot number and variations in Be-10 and C -14 calibrated by satellite observations) for changes in solar forcing, and give the same general picture-- that of a substantial warming 1,000 yrs ago (MWP) followed by cooling that was particularly marked in the late 17th and early 19th centuries (LIA). The resulting amplitude of temperature change between MWP and LIA agrees well with paleo-temperature reconstructions and suggests that solar forcing alone is inadequate to account for more than about half the 20th century warming (Lean et al 1995, Crowley and Lowry 2000). Since these quantitatively reproduce climate variations in the past 1000 years, the role of indirect solar forcing is inferred to be small but may be important (Lean and Rind 2001). Gerard Bond, Bernd Kromer, Juerg Beer, Raimund Muscheler, Michael N. Evans, William Showers, Sharon Hoffmann, Rusty Lotti-Bond, Irka Hajdas, and Georges Bonani, (2001) Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene,Science 294: 2130-2136 Briffa and Osborne, (2002) Blowing Hot and Cold, Science 295, 2227-2228. Lean, J., Beer, J., and Bradley, R., (1995) Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett.., 22, 3195-3198. Crowley ,T., (2000) Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years, Science,289, 270- 277. Lean and Rind, (2001), Earth's Response to a Variable Sun, Science, 292, 234-236.

Keller, C.

385

Overview-Climate Change and Adaptation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change poses a grave threat to sustainability. The first section of Sustainability2009: The Next Horizon, therefore, is devoted to Climate Change and Adaptation. Contributions focus on the historical consequences of climate change for human societies, as well as the effects of current climate change on sea level, lightning intensity, fire, the El Nin~o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and hurricane intensity. Chapters on fisheries and coral reefs highlight the cascading effects climatic warming, rising sea level, and ocean acidification. Adaptation to climate change and its consequences will be necessary to buy time for mitigation and reversal of the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions.

Aronson, Richard B.

2009-07-01

386

Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections  

Microsoft Academic Search

Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it’s important to provide regional climate change\\u000a information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central\\u000a America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal\\u000a variability of temperature and precipitation

Ambarish V. Karmalkar; Raymond S. Bradley; Henry F. Diaz

2011-01-01

387

Climate Change Scenarios and Sea Level Rise Estimates For the California 2009 Climate Change Scenarios Assessment. A Paper From: California Climate Change Center.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

For the 2008 California Climate Change Assessment, to further investigate possible future climate changes in California, a set of 12 climate change model simulations was selected and evaluated. From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Ass...

D. Cayan E. Maurer H. Hidalgo M. Dettinger M. Tyree N. Graham P. Bromirski R. Flick T. Das

2009-01-01

388

Severe thunderstorms and climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As the planet warms, it is important to consider possible impacts of climate change on severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. To further that discussion, the current distribution of severe thunderstorms as a function of large-scale environmental conditions is presented. Severe thunderstorms are much more likely to form in environments with large values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-tropospheric wind shear. Tornadoes and large hail are preferred in high-shear environments and non-tornadic wind events in low shear. Further, the intensity of tornadoes and hail, given that they occur, tends to be almost entirely a function of the shear and only weakly depends on the thermodynamics. Climate model simulations suggest that CAPE will increase in the future and the wind shear will decrease. Detailed analysis has suggested that the CAPE change will lead to more frequent environments favorable for severe thunderstorms, but the strong dependence on shear for tornadoes, particularly the strongest ones, and hail means that the interpretation of how individual hazards will change is open to question. The recent development of techniques to use higher-resolution models to estimate the occurrence of storms of various kinds is discussed. Given the large interannual variability in environments and occurrence of events, caution is urged in interpreting the observational record as evidence of climate change.

Brooks, H. E.

2013-04-01

389

Insect overwintering in a changing climate.  

PubMed

Insects are highly successful animals inhabiting marine, freshwater and terrestrial habitats from the equator to the poles. As a group, insects have limited ability to regulate their body temperature and have thus required a range of strategies to support life in thermally stressful environments, including behavioural avoidance through migration and seasonal changes in cold tolerance. With respect to overwintering strategies, insects have traditionally been divided into two main groups: freeze tolerant and freeze avoiding, although this simple classification is underpinned by a complex of interacting processes, i.e. synthesis of ice nucleating agents, cryoprotectants, antifreeze proteins and changes in membrane lipid composition. Also, in temperate and colder climates, the overwintering ability of many species is closely linked to the diapause state, which often increases cold tolerance ahead of temperature-induced seasonal acclimatisation. Importantly, even though most species can invoke one or both of these responses, the majority of insects die from the effects of cold rather than freezing. Most studies on the effects of a changing climate on insects have focused on processes that occur predominantly in summer (development, reproduction) and on changes in distributions rather than winter survival per se. For species that routinely experience cold stress, a general hypothesis would be that predicted temperature increases of 1 degree C to 5 degrees C over the next 50-100 years would increase winter survival in some climatic zones. However, this is unlikely to be a universal effect. Negative impacts may occur if climate warming leads to a reduction or loss of winter snow cover in polar and sub-polar areas, resulting in exposure to more severe air temperatures, increasing frequency of freeze-thaw cycles and risks of ice encasement. Likewise, whilst the dominant diapause-inducing cue (photoperiod) will be unaffected by global climate change, higher temperatures may modify normal rates of development, leading to a decoupling of synchrony between diapause-sensitive life-cycle stages and critical photoperiods for diapause induction. In terms of climate warming and potential heat stress, the most recent predictions of summer temperatures in Europe of 40 degrees C or higher in 50-75 years, are close to the current upper lethal limit of some insects. Long-term data sets on insect distributions and the timing of annual migrations provide strong evidence for 'positive' responses to higher winter temperatures over timescales of the past 20-50 years in North America, Europe and Asia. PMID:20190123

Bale, J S; Hayward, S A L

2010-03-15

390

Intensity of Hydrological Cycles in Warmer Climates  

Microsoft Academic Search

The fact that the surface and tropospheric temperatures increase with increasing CO2 has been well documented by numerical model simulations; however, less agreement is found for the changes in the intensity of precipitation and the hydrological cycle. Here, it is demonstrated that while both the radiative heating by increasing CO2 and the resulting higher sea surface temperatures contribute to warm

Fanglin Yang; Arun Kumar; Michael E. Schlesinger; Wanqiu Wang

2003-01-01

391

Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The recent increased pace in which extreme weather patterns are occurring has received national attention. Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent fu...

T. A. Yackle

2007-01-01

392

Global Climate Change: Policy Implications for Fisheries.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. These include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. For fisheries resources, p...

H. Gucinski R. T. Lackey B. C. Spence

1990-01-01

393

Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Earth's climate is changing, with the global temperature now rising at rates unprecedented in the experience of human society. While some historical changes in climate have resulted from natural causes and variations, the strength of the trends and the pa...

2009-01-01

394

Mitigating Climate Change in China and Ethiopia  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this video segment adapted from Hope in a Changing Climate, learn how an environmentally devastated ecosystem has been restored, benefiting both the local economy and global efforts to fight climate change.

Foundation, Wgbh E.

2010-11-30

395

Climate change 'understanding' and knowledge  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent surveys find that many people report having "a great deal" of understanding about climate change. Self-assessed understanding does not predict opinions, however, because those with highest "understanding" tend also to be most polarized. These findings raise questions about the relationship between "understanding" and objectively-measured knowledge. In summer 2011 we included three new questions testing climate-change knowledge on a statewide survey. The multiple-choice questions address basic facts that are widely accepted by contrarian as well as mainstream scientists. They ask about trends in Arctic sea ice, in CO2 concentrations, and the meaning of "greenhouse effect." The questions say nothing about impacts, attribution or mitigation. Each has a clear and well-publicized answer that does not presume acceptance of anthropogenic change. About 30% of respondents knew all three answers, and 36% got two out of three. 34% got zero or one right. Notably, these included 31% of those who claimed to have "a great deal" of understanding. Unlike self-assessed understanding, knowledge scores do predict opinions. People who knew more were significantly more likely to agree that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. This positive relationship remains significant controlling for gender, age, education, partisanship and "understanding." It does not exhibit the interaction effects with partisanship that characterize self-assessed understanding. Following the successful statewide test, the same items were added to a nationwide survey currently underway. Analyses replicated across both surveys cast a new light on the problematic connections between "understanding," knowledge and opinions about climate science.

Hamilton, L.

2011-12-01

396

Climate Change in South Asia  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a South Asia, is home to over one fifth of the world’s population and is known to be the most disaster prone region in the world.\\u000a The high rates of ­population growth, and natural resource degradation, with continuing high rates of poverty and food insecurity\\u000a make South Asia one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. In

Mannava V. K. Sivakumar; Robert Stefanski

397

Climate change, zoonoses and India.  

PubMed

Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review. PMID:22435190

Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

2011-12-01

398

Teaching Climate Change Through Music  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

Weiss, P. S.

2007-12-01

399

Energy Choices and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This interactive provides a new way for students to look at issues related to energy and climate change. In the scenarios within this module, students make decisions about the types and amount of energy used and see what effect their decisions have on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted to the atmosphere. Their goal is to reduce the amount of warming greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere from fossil fuel emissions while keeping costs within reason.

Universe, Windows T.; Education, Ncar O.

400

Climate Change: A Case Study Over India  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary   A brief account of various causes of climate change in recent decades and climate change trends in the Indian region is presented.\\u000a It is of great importance to determine the influence of human activities on the likely climate change during recent decades.\\u000a Local temperature is one of the major climatic elements to record the changes in the atmospheric environment

A. K. Sahai

1998-01-01

401

Climate Change Impact on Forestry in India  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a Climate change represents a significant threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. Climate change is expected\\u000a to have also impacts on forest ecology. It is thus important to make assessments of possible impacts of climate change on\\u000a forests in different regions to allow respective governments and communities to adapt. Climate change is projected to affect\\u000a individual organisms, populations, species distributions

Geetanjali Kaushik; M. A. Khalid

402

Climate change, environment and allergy.  

PubMed

Climate change with global warming is a physicometeorological fact that, among other aspects, will also affect human health. Apart from cardiovascular and infectious diseases, allergies seem to be at the forefront of the sequelae of climate change. By increasing temperature and concomitant increased CO(2) concentration, plant growth is affected in various ways leading to prolonged pollination periods in the northern hemisphere, as well as to the appearance of neophytes with allergenic properties, e.g. Ambrosia artemisiifolia (ragweed), in Central Europe. Because of the effects of environmental pollutants, which do not only act as irritants to skin and mucous membranes, allergen carriers such as pollen can be altered in the atmosphere and release allergens leading to allergen-containing aerosols in the ambient air. Pollen has been shown not only to be an allergen carrier, but also to release highly active lipid mediators (pollen-associated lipid mediators), which have proinflammatory and immunomodulating effects enhancing the initiation of allergy. Through the effects of climate change in the future, plant growth may be influenced in a way that more, new and altered pollens are produced, which may affect humans. PMID:22433365

Behrendt, Heidrun; Ring, Johannes

2012-03-13

403

Communicating Uncertainties on Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The term of uncertainty in common language is confusing since it is related in one of its most usual sense to what cannot be known in advance or what is subject to doubt. Its definition in mathematics is unambiguous but not widely shared. It is thus difficult to communicate on this notion through media to a wide public. From its scientific basis to the impact assessment, climate change issue is subject to a large number of sources of uncertainties. In this case, the definition of the term is close to its mathematical sense, but the diversity of disciplines involved in the analysis process implies a great diversity of approaches of the notion. Faced to this diversity of approaches, the issue of communicating uncertainties on climate change is thus a great challenge. It is also complicated by the diversity of the targets of the communication on climate change, from stakeholders and policy makers to a wide public. We will present the process chosen by the IPCC in order to communicate uncertainties in its assessment reports taking the example of the guidance note to lead authors of the fourth assessment report. Concerning the communication of uncertainties to a wide public, we will give some examples aiming at illustrating how to avoid the above-mentioned ambiguity when dealing with this kind of communication.

Planton, S.

2009-09-01

404

Mushroom fruiting and climate change  

PubMed Central

Many species of fungi produce ephemeral autumnal fruiting bodies to spread and multiply. Despite their attraction for mushroom pickers and their economic importance, little is known about the phenology of fruiting bodies. Using ?34,500 dated herbarium records we analyzed changes in the autumnal fruiting date of mushrooms in Norway over the period 1940–2006. We show that the time of fruiting has changed considerably over this time period, with an average delay in fruiting since 1980 of 12.9 days. The changes differ strongly between species and groups of species. Early-fruiting species have experienced a stronger delay than late fruiters, resulting in a more compressed fruiting season. There is also a geographic trend of earlier fruiting in the northern and more continental parts of Norway than in more southern and oceanic parts. Incorporating monthly precipitation and temperature variables into the analyses provides indications that increasing temperatures during autumn and winter months bring about significant delay of fruiting both in the same year and in the subsequent year. The recent changes in autumnal mushroom phenology coincide with the extension of the growing season caused by global climate change and are likely to continue under the current climate change scenario.

Kauserud, Havard; Stige, Leif Christian; Vik, Jon Olav; ?kland, Rune H.; H?iland, Klaus; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2008-01-01

405

Energetic Constraints on Precipitation Under Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Energetic constraints on precipitation are useful for understanding the response of the hydrological cycle to ongoing climate change, its response to possible geoengineering schemes, and the limits on precipitation in very warm climates of the past. Much recent progress has been made in quantifying the different forcings and feedbacks on precipitation and in understanding how the transient responses of precipitation and temperature might differ qualitatively. Here, we introduce the basic ideas and review recent progress. We also examine the extent to which energetic constraints on precipitation may be viewed as radiative constraints and the extent to which they are confirmed by available observations. Challenges remain, including the need to better demonstrate the link between energetics and precipitation in observations and to better understand energetic constraints on precipitation at sub-global length scales.

O'Gorman, Paul A.; Allan, Richard P.; Byrne, Michael P.; Previdi, Michael

2012-07-01

406

Climate Change: Fitting the Pieces Together  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Earth Gauge and the COMET Program have designed a two-hour course for that provides a basic overview of climate change science and resources to answer common questions about climate change. Although initially designed for broadcast meteorologists, the course is a good primer for anyone interested in climate change.

2009-01-01

407

International business and global climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments

J. Pinkse; A. Kolk

2008-01-01

408

Climate change impacts on electricity demand  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is expected to lead to changes in ambient temperature, wind speed, humidity, precipitation and cloud cover. As electricity demand is closely influenced by these climatic variables, there is likely to be an impact on demand patterns. The potential impact of future changes in climate on electricity demand can be seen on a daily and seasonal basis through the

S. Parkpoom; G. P. Harrison; J. W. Bialek

2004-01-01

409

Climate Change Impacts on Southeast Asian Agriculture  

Microsoft Academic Search

Despite the extensive interest in measuring the economic impacts of climate change in general, there is very little empirical research on Asia. This study extrapolates results from India and selected experiments to the rest of Southeast Asia in order to measure the impact of climate change on agriculture in this region. The study examines a variety of climate change predictions

Robert Mendelsohn

410

Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change

Dawson, Vaille

2012-01-01

411

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: GOVERNMENT OF CANADA  

EPA Science Inventory

The Government of Canada Climate Change Site was developed to inform Canadians about climate change and how it affects our environment. The site explains what the Government of Canada is doing about climate change and how individuals, communities, businesses, industries, and ever...

412

Climate change and poverty in Africa  

Microsoft Academic Search

Africa is most vulnerable to climate change, although it makes the least contribution to factors that result in global and regional climatic changes. High levels of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity across the continent have been linked to, among other things, poverty. This paper discusses and analyses the relationship between climate change and poverty in Africa. It investigates the relationship

Kempe Ronald Hope Sr

2009-01-01

413

Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

Anderson, Allison

2012-01-01

414

As climate changes, so do glaciers  

PubMed Central

Understanding abrupt climate changes requires detailed spatial/temporal records of such changes, and to make these records, we need rapidly responding, geographically widespread climate trackers. Glacial systems are such trackers, and recent additions to the stratigraphic record show overall synchronous response of glacial systems to climate change reflecting global atmosphere conditions.

Lowell, Thomas V.

2000-01-01

415

Climate change, human security and violent conflict  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is increasingly been called a ‘security’ problem, and there has been speculation that climate change may increase the risk of violent conflict. This paper integrates three disparate but well-founded bodies of research – on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, on livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development

Jon Barnett; W. Neil Adger

2007-01-01

416

Climate Change Compounding Risks in North Africa  

Microsoft Academic Search

The impact of climate change on agriculture and poor groups’ livelihoods are one of the greatest potential threats to development and a key challenge in climate change agenda. The North Africa region is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to geographic and ecological features. The situation is aggravated by the interaction of multiple economic and social sources of stress and

Imed Drine

2011-01-01

417

Holocence Climatic Changes in the Mongolian Plateau  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study compares lacustrine and nearby eolian sections at sites in the Southern and Northern Mongolian Plateaus in order to test spatial climate variability during the Holocene. Based on the lithology, proxy data, and 14C dated and the interpolated ages, following observations can be made. In the northern Mongolian Plateau best developed Holocene paleosol (Mollisol) dated at ~8,600-~7000 14C yr BP at the Shaamar section and the carbonate-rich laminated layer in the Gun Nuur lake core mark the interval of warmer and dryer climate (i.e., grassland domination) during the early Holocene (~8,300-~7400 14C yr BP). Younger paleosols at the Shaamar section and corresponding organic-rich layers in the Gun Nuur core were formed under distinctly cooler and more humid conditions. Minor soils (Entisols) and associated pollen assemblages indicate that the climate in the Northern Mongolian Plateau ameliorated four times during mid-late Holocene: (1) around 4800 14C yr BP, (2) around 3800 14C yr BP, and (3) around 3000 14C yr BP, and (4) during the past 1600 14C yr BP. The Baahar Nuur lake core in the Southern Mongolian Plateau and the Dingxi eolian section in the western part of the Western Chinese Loess Plateau appear to be supportive of the notion that prolonged interval of maximum humidity prevailed in this region during the early- and mid-Holocene (9,000-4,000 14C yr BP). The late Holocene at the Dingxi section consists of three paleosol-loess couplets and the three weakly developed paleosols (i.e., Entisols) were inferred to have been formed from ~3500 to ~3100 14C yr BP, from ~2900 to ~2400 14C yr BP, and from ~2000 to ~1000 14C yr BP, respectively. The lake-core proxy data indicate that the Holocene Climatic Optimum (equivalent to the highest productivity) in the Northern Mongolian Plateau occurred from ~6000 to ~1500 14C yr BP and the Climatic Optimum occurred in the Southern Mongolian Plateau and in the western part of the Chinese Plateau from ~9000 to ~4000 14C yr BP. This discrepancy implies that the concept of the Holocene Climatic Optimum has limitations and may have to be reconsidered if it is intended to have a large-scale connotation. We also notived that the climate appeared to have changed in cycles of ~1500 years in the North (comparable with those in North Atlantic) and tt appeared to have changed in cycles of ~1000 years in the South (comparable with those in the Santa Barbara basin--- needs to be further confirmed).

Feng, Z.; Zhai, X.; Wang, W.; Ma, Y.; Guo, L.

2007-12-01

418

Ocean Circulation and Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

While the mainstream media has provided extensive coverage of El Nino and La Nina -- the warmer and colder phases of a perpetual oscillation in the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean -- little attention has been paid to deep-water phases. Several recent publications in leading scientific journals (Science and Nature) are adding new dimensions to the link between large-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Researchers Dr. Wallace Broecker and researchers at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (see the November 5, 1999 issue of Science and the November 9, 1999 issue of The New York Times) found that deep ocean currents, operating as an oceanic "conveyor belt," may hold clues to climate change. The conveyor belt works by transporting warm, increasingly salty, ocean water from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean; eventually, the warm water current runs into a cold water current, causing the warm water to cool quickly and sink, due to greater density. In turn, this creates a "sub-surface countercurrent which carries the cool water back to the Indian and Pacific oceans" (2). In this week's issue of Nature (December 2, 1999), German scientist Carsten Ruhlemann and colleagues provide new evidence that the thermohaline circulation has triggered rapid climate change events in the past, including the last deglaciation. In addition, the current issue of Science Times (December 7, 1999) highlights the connection between thawing Arctic ice sheets and oceanic currents. This week's In The News focuses on ocean circulation patterns and climate change. The seven resources provide background information and specific links to related resources.

Payne, Laura X.

419

Congress probes climate change uncertainties  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Policymakers are demanding information about climate change faster than it can be turned out by scientists. This conflict between politics and science was debated at a recent congressional hearing on priorities in global change research. On October 8 and 10, panels of scientists that included AGU president-elect Ralph J. Cicerone of the University of California attempted to identify scientific uncertainties in global warming research before the House Science Committee's Subcommittee on Science.“Decisionmakers provided with incomplete information are left with the problem of choosing among options where the consequences of a wrong choice could be disastrous,” said subcommittee chair Rick Boucher (D-Va.).

Simarski, Lynn Teo

420

Climate Change Projections for African Urban Areas  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainly driven by changes in the orbital characteristics of Earth around the sun, the planet's climate has been continuously changing over periods of tens of thousands of years. However, the warming that has been detected in the Earth's atmosphere over the last century is occurring at a rate that cannot be explained by any known natural cycle. Main-stream science has indeed reached consensus that the 'enhanced green house effect', caused by the interplay of incoming short-wave irradiation, outgoing long-wave radiation and the absorption of energy by enhanced levels of CO2 and water vapour in the troposphere, is the main forcing mechanism responsible for the phenomena of global warming. The enhanced greenhouse effect strengthens the 'natural green house effect' that results from the CO2 and water vapour occurring naturally in the atmosphere. The continuous burning of fossil fuels since the industrial revolution and the simultaneous degradation of large forests, are the main reasons for the increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The availability of climate change projection data varies considerably for different areas on Earth. Whereas the data centres storing climate change projections for Europe and North America now store petabytes of data, regionally downscaled projections for Africa are rarely available. In the context of the research project CLUVA, (Assessing vulnerability of urban systems, populations and goods in relation to natural and man-made disasters in Africa, co-funded by the European Commission under grant agreement no: 265137), the Council for Industrial and Scientific Research (CSIR) in South Africa and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) in Italy have produced a large set of projections of climate change over Africa, covering the time period 1950 to 2100. Through the collaboration between CMCC and CSIR, a multi-model ensemble of eight high-resolution simulations of climate change over parts of West and East Africa have been derived (six at CSIR and two at CMCC). That is, a multi-model ensemble of simulations of present-day and future climate has been made available for a number of African regions. This approach is most useful to describe the range of uncertainty associated with future climate. In order to obtain a set of plausible and physically defensible projections that can be used for a broad range of subsequent research questions, the two partners followed two different modelling approaches. The first approach, (by CMCC) uses a single dynamic climate change model: the model gets executed several times using a number of pertubations, e.g. changing initial conditions to account for the non-linear dynamics, perturbations of the boundary conditions to account for the 'imperfect' characterizations of the non-atmospheric components of the climate system or to handle the uncertainty of the driving global model, or perturbations of the model physics to account for the uncertainties inherent in the parameterizations. The second approach, (by CSIR) keeps the boundary conditions static but downscales a number of different global circulation models to account for the uncertainties inherent in the models themselves. In total, CSIR has run six different dynamic models. All runs have been conducted on super computing clusters to be completed within reasonable timeframes. The full data set is currently made available on the web. A number of tools is used to provide maximum user experience for climate change experts, social geographers, city planners and policy decision makers.

Simonis, Ingo; Engelbrecht, Francois; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Naidoo, Mogesh

2013-04-01

421

Committed ecosystem changes and contributions to climate recovery  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Future climate change and the carbon cycle are tightly coupled. Many studies have now shown positive feedbacks which amplify climate change, reduce the natural uptake of carbon and influence global emissions pathways to stabilisation. On the timescale of 1 or 2 centuries, this feedback is mainly due to the terrestrial biosphere. Here we assess to what extent the biosphere contributes to recovery of CO2 levels after a cessation of carbon emissions. We find that when significant climate change has weakened natural terrestrial carbon sinks, these sinks do not recover after a stop of emissions and thus recovery of CO2 (and hence climate) is slow. Further, we find that the terrestrial biosphere exhibits significant inertia and can continue to respond to climate changes decades after stabilisation of climate. This has serious implications for definitions of dangerous climate change based simply on stabilisation temperature as the absence of significant biome changes at the time of stabilisation does not preclude significant and potentially detrimental changes in subsequent decades. Assessments of targets for stabilising climate change often consider the impacts of different levels of global warming. These assessments usually consider impacts that would occur at the time of reaching a particular level of warming. However, global terrestrial ecosystems continue to respond over longer timescales. Here we introduce the concept of "committed ecosystem changes" analogous to climate warming commitments and committed sea-level rise due to thermal inertia. The true impact of climate change on ecosystems will not be revealed for many decades after stabilising temperatures. Further, we suggest that ecosystems may become committed to substantial damage long before any is observable. For example, significant loss of forest cover in Amazonia may become inevitable significantly below a global warming of 2K. When defining dangerous climate change, and forming policy to avoid it, such committed ecosystem changes, rather than realised changes, must be considered.

Jones, C. D.; Lowe, J. A.; Liddicoat, S. K.; Betts, R. A.

2009-04-01

422

Arctic Climate Change: Are Current Climate Models too Conservative?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Arctic Climate Change: Are Current Climate Models too Conservative? Julienne Stroeve, Marika Holland, Mark Serreze Climate models have long predicted that warming in the Arctic in response to greenhouse gas loading will be especially pronounced. This strong warming is closely related to loss of the sea ice cover. However, observed sea ice losses since 1979 have been stronger than those

J. C. Stroeve; M. Holland; M. Serreze

2006-01-01

423

Climate, climate change and human health in Asian cities  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change will affect the health of urban populations. It represents a range of environmental hazards and will affect populations where the current burden of climate-sensitive disease is high — such as the urban poor in low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the current impact of weather and climate variability on the health of urban populations is the first step towards

Sari Kovats; Rais Akhtar

2008-01-01

424

The science of climate change.  

SciTech Connect

A complex debate is underway on climate change linked to proposals for costly measures that would reshape our power grid. This confronts technical experts outside of the geophysical disciplines with extensive, but unfamiliar, data both supporting and refuting claims that serious action is warranted. For example, evidence is brought to the table from one group of astrophysicists concerned with sunspots--this group believes there is no issue man can manage; while another group of oceanographers concerned with the heat balance in the world's oceans are very alarmed at the loss of arctic ice. What is the evidence? In an effort to put some of these issues in perspective for a technical audience, without a background in geophysics, a brief survey will consider (1) an overview of the 300 years of scientific inquiry on man's relationship to climate; (2) a basic discussion of what is meant by the ''greenhouse'' and why there are concerns which include not only CO{sub 2}, but also CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC's; (3) the geological record on CO{sub 2}--which likely was present at 1,000 times current levels when life began; (4) the solar luminosity and sunspot question; and (5) the current evidence for global climate change. We are at a juncture where we are attempting to understand the earth as an integrated dynamic system, rather than a collection of isolated components.

Doctor, R. D.

1999-09-10

425

Climate change scenarios for the assessments of the climate change on regional ecosystems  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of regional climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMs). An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g.

D. Viner; M. Hulme; S. C. B. Raper

1995-01-01

426

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate

Miguel Clavero; Daniel Villero; Lluís Brotons; Stephen G. Willis

2011-01-01

427

Oceans Effect on Weather and Climate: Changing Climate  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This Science Object is the fourth of four Science Objects in the Ocean's Effect on Weather and Climate SciPack. It explores how Earth's climate has changed in the past and how it may change in the future. Climate change may occur as a result of changes in Earth's surface, atmosphere, and oceans. Such changes may be abrupt (such as gas and dust from volcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts) or may occur over very long times (such as changes in landscape or increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere). Even relatively small changes in atmospheric or ocean content and/or temperature can have widespread effects on climate if the change lasts long enough. Since the industrial revolution, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased at an unprecedented rate. Though climate change and changes in the composition of the oceans and atmosphere are natural, present modifications far exceed natural rates. Learning Outcomes:� Explain the role that phenomena such as volcanic eruptions or asteroid impact play in changing climate.� Describe the type of atmospheric conditions and weather related data that can be obtained from ice core and deep-sea sediment records.� Describe how a small change in the content of oceans and atmosphere (such as a rise in carbon dioxide levels) can have significant impacts on global climate.� Describe human activity that has an affect on climate.