Seasonal flows on warm Martian slopes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEwen, A.S.; Ojha, L.; Dundas, C.M.; Mattson, S.S.; Byrne, S.; Wray, J.J.; Cull, S.C.; Murchie, S.L.; Thomas, N.; Gulick, V.C.

2011-01-01

Water probably flowed across ancient Mars, but whether it ever exists as a liquid on the surface today remains debatable. Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are narrow (0.5 to 5 meters), relatively dark markings on steep (25?? to 40??) slopes; repeat images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment show them to appear and incrementally grow during warm seasons and fade in cold seasons. They extend downslope from bedrock outcrops, often associated with small channels, and hundreds of them form in some rare locations. RSL appear and lengthen in the late southern spring and summer from 48??S to 32??S latitudes favoring equator-facing slopes, which are times and places with peak surface temperatures from ???250 to 300 kelvin. Liquid brines near the surface might explain this activity, but the exact mechanism and source of water are not understood.

A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

2017-08-01

Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 < P ≤ 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 < P ≤ 10 mm/h) to very heavy precipitation (P > 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

Seasonal flows on warm Martian slopes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEwen, Alfred S.; Ojha, Lujendra; Dundas, Colin M.; Mattson, Sarah S.; Byrne, Shane; Wray, James J.; Cull, Selby C.; Murchie, Scott L.; Thomas, Nicolas; Gulick, Virginia C.

2011-01-01

Water probably flowed across ancient Mars, but whether it ever exists as a liquid on the surface today remains debatable. Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are narrow (0.5 to 5 meters), relatively dark markings on steep (25° to 40°) slopes; repeat images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment show them to appear and incrementally grow during warm seasons and fade in cold seasons. They extend downslope from bedrock outcrops, often associated with small channels, and hundreds of them form in some rare locations. RSL appear and lengthen in the late southern spring and summer from 48°S to 32°S latitudes favoring equator-facing slopes, which are times and places with peak surface temperatures from ~250 to 300 kelvin. Liquid brines near the surface might explain this activity, but the exact mechanism and source of water are not understood.

Seasonal flows on warm Martian slopes.

PubMed

McEwen, Alfred S; Ojha, Lujendra; Dundas, Colin M; Mattson, Sarah S; Byrne, Shane; Wray, James J; Cull, Selby C; Murchie, Scott L; Thomas, Nicolas; Gulick, Virginia C

2011-08-05

Water probably flowed across ancient Mars, but whether it ever exists as a liquid on the surface today remains debatable. Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are narrow (0.5 to 5 meters), relatively dark markings on steep (25° to 40°) slopes; repeat images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment show them to appear and incrementally grow during warm seasons and fade in cold seasons. They extend downslope from bedrock outcrops, often associated with small channels, and hundreds of them form in some rare locations. RSL appear and lengthen in the late southern spring and summer from 48°S to 32°S latitudes favoring equator-facing slopes, which are times and places with peak surface temperatures from ~250 to 300 kelvin. Liquid brines near the surface might explain this activity, but the exact mechanism and source of water are not understood.

Statistical significance of seasonal warming/cooling trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2017-04-01

The question whether a seasonal climate trend (e.g., the increase of summer temperatures in Antarctica in the last decades) is of anthropogenic or natural origin is of great importance for mitigation and adaption measures alike. The conventional significance analysis assumes that (i) the seasonal climate trends can be quantified by linear regression, (ii) the different seasonal records can be treated as independent records, and (iii) the persistence in each of these seasonal records can be characterized by short-term memory described by an autoregressive process of first order. Here we show that assumption ii is not valid, due to strong intraannual correlations by which different seasons are correlated. We also show that, even in the absence of correlations, for Gaussian white noise, the conventional analysis leads to a strong overestimation of the significance of the seasonal trends, because multiple testing has not been taken into account. In addition, when the data exhibit long-term memory (which is the case in most climate records), assumption iii leads to a further overestimation of the trend significance. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with the Holm-Bonferroni method, we demonstrate how to obtain reliable estimates of the significance of the seasonal climate trends in long-term correlated records. For an illustration, we apply our method to representative temperature records from West Antarctica, which is one of the fastest-warming places on Earth and belongs to the crucial tipping elements in the Earth system.

Copepod community succession during warm season in Lagoon Notoro-ko, northeastern Hokkaido, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Yoshizumi; Ichikawa, Hideaki; Kitamura, Mitsuaki; Nishino, Yasuto; Taniguchi, Akira

2015-06-01

Lagoon Notoro-ko, located on the northeastern coast of Hokkaido, Japan, and connected to the Okhotsk Sea by a human-made channel, is strongly influenced by local hydrography, as water masses in the lagoon are seasonally influenced by the Soya Warm Current and the East Sakhalin Current. We here report on the succession of copepod communities during the warm season in relation to water mass exchange. Copepods were categorized into four seasonal communities (spring/early-summer, mid-summer, late-summer/fall, and early-winter) via a cluster analysis based on Bray-Curtis similarities. Spring/early-summer and early-winter communities were characterized by the temperate-boreal calanoid Pseudocalanus newmani, comprising 34.9%-77.6% of the total abundance of copepods during times of low temperature/salinity, as influenced by the prevailing East Sakhalin Current. Late-summer/fall communities were characterized by the neritic warm-water calanoid Paracalanus parvus s.l., comprising 63.9%-96.3% of the total abundance, as influenced by the Soya Warm Current. Mid-summer communities comprised approximately equal abundances of P. parvus, Eurytemora herdmani, Scolecithricella minor, and Centropages abdominalis (12.8%-28.2%); this community is transitional between those of the spring/early-summer and late-summer/fall. Copepod community succession in Lagoon Notoro-ko can be largely explained by seasonal changes in water masses.

Establishment of warm season grasses with and without the use of compost soil amendments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, M.C.; Osenton, P.C.; Gough, G.A.; Lohnes, E.J.R.

2000-01-01

Two compost materials (COMPRO and LEAFGRO) were evaluated as soil amendments to enhance wildlife habitats, while maintaining optimal floral and faunal biodiversity. Special emphasis was placed on the role of compost in the establishment and retention of native warm season grasses (Andropogon gerardi, Schizachyrium scoparium, and Sorghastrum nutans). This study was conducted at two sites that were degraded by previous military and farming operations. Sites were plowed twice in 1996 and then a one inch layer of COMPRO or LEAFGRO was applied with a modified manure spreader and disked into the soil to a depth of 3 inches. Vegetation sampling was conducted in 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999. Initially the greatest vegetation cover occurred in plots treated with LEAFGRO. Plots treated with COMPRO had less vegetation cover than both types of controls plots (with and without warmseason grasses). The reduced plant growth in the plots treated with COMPRO may have been related to the much higher soil pH of these plots on both sites. In subsequent years, amounts of warm season grasses increased, however, in general there was more cover of warm season grasses in plots that did not receive compost than those that did receive compost. Sorghastrum nutans was more abundant on the sites than either of the other two species of warm season grasses. Invertebrate and mammal data collected for three years indicated that there was not more faunal activity in the plots treated with LEAFGRO or COMPRO compost soil amendments. Results indicate that compost amendments did not improve establishment of warm season grasses and the resultant faunal diversity or abundance.

Nitrogen and harvest impact on warm-season grasses biomass yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Perennial warm-season grasses have drawn interest as bioenergy feedstocks due to their high productivity with minimal amounts of inputs while producing multiple environmental benefits. Nitrogen (N) fertility and harvest timing are critical management practices when optimizing biomass yield of these ...

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2007-01-01

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Contribution of daily and seasonal biorhythms to obesity in humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanikowska, Dominika; Sato, Maki; Witowski, Janusz

2015-04-01

While the significance of obesity as a serious health problem is well recognized, little is known about whether and how biometerological factors and biorhythms causally contribute to obesity. Obesity is often associated with altered seasonal and daily rhythmicity in food intake, metabolism and adipose tissue function. Environmental stimuli affect both seasonal and daily rhythms, and the latter are under additional control of internal molecular oscillators, or body clocks. Modifications of clock genes in animals and changes to normal daily rhythms in humans (as in shift work and sleep deprivation) result in metabolic dysregulation that favours weight gain. Here, we briefly review the potential links between biorhythms and obesity in humans.

Warm-Season Flows on Slope in Horowitz Crater Nine-Image Sequence

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-08-04

This image comes from observations of Horowitz crater by the HiRISE camera onboard NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. The features that extend down the slope during warm seasons are called recurring slope lineae.

Effects of Global Warming on Predatory Bugs Supported by Data Across Geographic and Seasonal Climatic Gradients

PubMed Central

Schuldiner-Harpaz, Tarryn; Coll, Moshe

2013-01-01

Global warming may affect species abundance and distribution, as well as temperature-dependent morphometric traits. In this study, we first used historical data to document changes in Orius (Heteroptera: Anthocoridae) species assemblage and individual morphometric traits over the past seven decades in Israel. We then tested whether these changes could have been temperature driven by searching for similar patterns across seasonal and geographic climatic gradients in a present survey. The historical records indicated a shift in the relative abundance of dominant Orius species; the relative abundance of O. albidipennis, a desert-adapted species, increased while that of O. laevigatus decreased in recent decades by 6 and 10–15 folds, respectively. These shifts coincided with an overall increase of up to 2.1°C in mean daily temperatures over the last 25 years in Israel. Similar trends were found in contemporary data across two other climatic gradients, seasonal and geographic; O. albidipennis dominated Orius assemblages under warm conditions. Finally, specimens collected in the present survey were significantly smaller than those from the 1980’s, corresponding to significantly smaller individuals collected now during warmer than colder seasons. Taken together, results provide strong support to the hypothesis that temperature is the most likely driver of the observed shifts in species composition and body sizes because (1) historical changes in both species assemblage and body size were associated with rising temperatures in the study region over the last few decades; and (2) similar changes were observed as a result of contemporary drivers that are associated with temperature. PMID:23805249

The responses of microbial temperature relationships to seasonal change and winter warming in a temperate grassland.

PubMed

Birgander, Johanna; Olsson, Pål Axel; Rousk, Johannes

2018-01-18

Microorganisms dominate the decomposition of organic matter and their activities are strongly influenced by temperature. As the carbon (C) flux from soil to the atmosphere due to microbial activity is substantial, understanding temperature relationships of microbial processes is critical. It has been shown that microbial temperature relationships in soil correlate with the climate, and microorganisms in field experiments become more warm-tolerant in response to chronic warming. It is also known that microbial temperature relationships reflect the seasons in aquatic ecosystems, but to date this has not been investigated in soil. Although climate change predictions suggest that temperatures will be mostly affected during winter in temperate ecosystems, no assessments exist of the responses of microbial temperature relationships to winter warming. We investigated the responses of the temperature relationships of bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in a temperate grassland to seasonal change, and to 2 years' winter warming. The warming treatments increased winter soil temperatures by 5-6°C, corresponding to 3°C warming of the mean annual temperature. Microbial temperature relationships and temperature sensitivities (Q 10 ) could be accurately established, but did not respond to winter warming or to seasonal temperature change, despite significant shifts in the microbial community structure. The lack of response to winter warming that we demonstrate, and the strong response to chronic warming treatments previously shown, together suggest that it is the peak annual soil temperature that influences the microbial temperature relationships, and that temperatures during colder seasons will have little impact. Thus, mean annual temperatures are poor predictors for microbial temperature relationships. Instead, the intensity of summer heat-spells in temperate systems is likely to shape the microbial temperature relationships that govern the soil-atmosphere C

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Seasonal Variability May Affect Microbial Decomposers and Leaf Decomposition More Than Warming in Streams.

PubMed

Duarte, Sofia; Cássio, Fernanda; Ferreira, Verónica; Canhoto, Cristina; Pascoal, Cláudia

2016-08-01

Ongoing climate change is expected to affect the diversity and activity of aquatic microbes, which play a key role in plant litter decomposition in forest streams. We used a before-after control-impact (BACI) design to study the effects of warming on a forest stream reach. The stream reach was divided by a longitudinal barrier, and during 1 year (ambient year) both stream halves were at ambient temperature, while in the second year (warmed year) the temperature in one stream half was increased by ca. 3 °C above ambient temperature (experimental half). Fine-mesh bags containing oak (Quercus robur L.) leaves were immersed in both stream halves for up to 60 days in spring and autumn of the ambient and warmed years. We assessed leaf-associated microbial diversity by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and identification of fungal conidial morphotypes and microbial activity by quantifying leaf mass loss and productivity of fungi and bacteria. In the ambient year, no differences were found in leaf decomposition rates and microbial productivities either between seasons or stream halves. In the warmed year, phosphorus concentration in the stream water, leaf decomposition rates, and productivity of bacteria were higher in spring than in autumn. They did not differ between stream halves, except for leaf decomposition, which was higher in the experimental half in spring. Fungal and bacterial communities differed between seasons in both years. Seasonal changes in stream water variables had a greater impact on the activity and diversity of microbial decomposers than a warming regime simulating a predicted global warming scenario.

Characterization of water quality and suspended sediment during cold-season flows, warm-season flows, and stormflows in the Fountain and Monument Creek watersheds, Colorado, 2007–2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Lisa D.; Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2017-09-01

From 2007 through 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering, conducted a study in the Fountain and Monument Creek watersheds, Colorado, to characterize surface-water quality and suspended-sediment conditions for three different streamflow regimes with an emphasis on characterizing water quality during storm runoff. Data collected during this study were used to evaluate the effects of stormflows and wastewater-treatment effluent discharge on Fountain and Monument Creeks in the Colorado Springs, Colorado, area. Water-quality samples were collected at 2 sites on Upper Fountain Creek, 2 sites on Monument Creek, 3 sites on Lower Fountain Creek, and 13 tributary sites during 3 flow regimes: cold-season flow (November–April), warm-season flow (May–October), and stormflow from 2007 through 2015. During 2015, additional samples were collected and analyzed for Escherichia coli (E. coli) during dry weather conditions at 41 sites, located in E. coli impaired stream reaches, to help identify source areas and scope of the impairment.Concentrations of E. coli, total arsenic, and dissolved copper, selenium, and zinc in surface-water samples were compared to Colorado in-stream standards. Stormflow concentrations of E. coli frequently exceeded the recreational use standard of 126 colonies per 100 milliliters at main-stem and tributary sites by more than an order of magnitude. Even though median E. coli concentrations in warm-season flow samples were lower than median concentrations in storm-flow samples, the water quality standard for E. coli was still exceeded at most main-stem sites and many tributary sites during warm-season flows. Six samples (three warm-season flow and three stormflow samples) collected from Upper Fountain Creek, upstream from the confluence of Monument Creek, and two stormflow samples collected from Lower Fountain Creek, downstream from the confluence with Monument Creek, exceeded the acute water

Can Regional Climate Models Improve Warm Season Forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, F.; Castro, C. L.

2009-12-01

The goal of this work is to improve warm season forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region. To do this, we are dynamically downscaling warm season CFS (Climate Forecast System) reforecasts from 1982-2005 for the contiguous U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model. CFS is the global coupled ocean-atmosphere model used by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to provide official U.S. seasonal climate forecasts. Recently, NCEP has produced a comprehensive long-term retrospective ensemble CFS reforecasts for the years 1980-2005. These reforecasts show that CFS model 1) has an ability to forecast tropical Pacific SSTs and large-scale teleconnection patterns, at least as evaluated for the winter season; 2) has greater skill in forecasting winter than summer climate; and 3) demonstrates an increase in skill when a greater number of ensembles members are used. The decrease in CFS skill during the warm season is due to the fact that the physical mechanisms of rainfall at this time are more related to mesoscale processes, such as the diurnal cycle of convection, low-level moisture transport, propagation and organization of convection, and surface moisture recycling. In general, these are poorly represented in global atmospheric models. Preliminary simulations for years with extreme summer climate conditions in the western and central U.S. (specifically 1988 and 1993) show that CFS-WRF simulations can provide a more realistic representation of convective rainfall processes. Thus a RCM can potentially add significant value in climate forecasting of the warm season provided the downscaling methodology incorporates the following: 1) spectral nudging to preserve the variability in the large scale circulation while still permitting the development of smaller-scale variability in the RCM; and 2) use of realistic soil moisture initial condition, in this case provided by the

Seasonal exposure to drought and air warming affects soil Collembola and mites.

PubMed

Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

2012-01-01

Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4 °C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length ≤ 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type.

Seasonal Exposure to Drought and Air Warming Affects Soil Collembola and Mites

PubMed Central

Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M.; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

2012-01-01

Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4°C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type. PMID:22905210

Seasonal responses of soil respiration to warming and nitrogen addition in a semi-arid alfalfa-pasture of the Loess Plateau, China.

PubMed

Fang, Chao; Ye, Jian-Sheng; Gong, Yanhong; Pei, Jiuying; Yuan, Ziqiang; Xie, Chan; Zhu, Yusi; Yu, Yueyuan

2017-07-15

Responses of soil respiration (R s ) to increasing nitrogen (N) deposition and warming will have far-reaching influences on global carbon (C) cycling. However, the seasonal (growing and non-growing seasons) difference of R s responses to warming and N deposition has rarely been investigated. We conducted a field manipulative experiment in a semi-arid alfalfa-pasture of northwest China to evaluate the response of R s to nitrogen addition and warming from March 2014 to March 2016. Open-top chambers were used to elevate temperature and N was enriched at a rate of 4.42g m -2 yr -1 with NH 4 NO 3 . Results showed that (1) N addition increased R s by 14% over the two-year period; and (2) warming stimulated R s by 15% in the non-growing season, while inhibited it by 5% in the growing season, which can be explained by decreased plant coverage and soil water. The main effect of N addition did not change with time, but that of warming changed with time, with the stronger inhibition observed in the dry year. When N addition and warming were combined, an antagonistic effect was observed in the growing season, whereas a synergism was observed in the non-growing season. Overall, warming and N addition did not affect the Q10 values over the two-year period, but these treatments significantly increased the Q10 values in the growing season compared with the control treatment. In comparison, combined warming and nitrogen addition significantly reduced the Q10 values compared with the single factor treatment. These results suggest that the negative indirect effect of warming-induced water stress overrides the positive direct effect of warming on R s . Our results also imply the necessity of considering the different R s responses in the growing and non-growing seasons to climate change to accurately evaluate the carbon cycle in the arid and semi-arid regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linkage Between Hourly Precipitation Events and Atmospheric Temperature Changes over China during the Warm Season

PubMed Central

Miao, Chiyuan; Sun, Qiaohong; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Duan, Qingyun

2016-01-01

We investigated changes in the temporospatial features of hourly precipitation during the warm season over mainland China. The frequency and amount of hourly precipitation displayed latitudinal zonation, especially for light and moderate precipitation, which showed successive downward change over time in northeastern and southern China. Changes in the precipitation amount resulted mainly from changes in frequency rather than changes in intensity. We also evaluated the linkage between hourly precipitation and temperature variations and found that hourly precipitation extreme was more sensitive to temperature than other categories of precipitation. A strong dependency of hourly precipitation on temperature occurred at temperatures colder than the median daily temperature; in such cases, regression slopes were greater than the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation of 7% per degree Celsius. Regression slopes for 31.6%, 59.8%, 96.9%, and 99.1% of all stations were greater than 7% per degree Celsius for the 75th, 90th, 99th, and 99.9th percentiles for precipitation, respectively. The mean regression slopes within the 99.9th percentile of precipitation were three times the C-C rate. Hourly precipitation showed a strong negative relationship with daily maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range at most stations, whereas the equivalent correlation for daily minimum temperature was weak. PMID:26931350

The effect of temperature on different Salmonella serotypes during warm seasons in a Mediterranean climate city, Adelaide, Australia.

PubMed

Milazzo, A; Giles, L C; Zhang, Y; Koehler, A P; Hiller, J E; Bi, P

2016-04-01

Changing trends in foodborne disease are influenced by many factors, including temperature. Globally and in Australia, warmer ambient temperatures are projected to rise if climate change continues. Salmonella spp. are a temperature-sensitive pathogen and rising temperature can have a substantial effect on disease burden affecting human health. We examined the relationship between temperature and Salmonella spp. and serotype notifications in Adelaide, Australia. Time-series Poisson regression models were fit to estimate the effect of temperature during warmer months on Salmonella spp. and serotype cases notified from 1990 to 2012. Long-term trends, seasonality, autocorrelation and lagged effects were included in the statistical models. Daily Salmonella spp. counts increased by 1·3% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1·013, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·008-1·019] per 1 °C rise in temperature in the warm season with greater increases observed in specific serotype and phage-type cases ranging from 3·4% (IRR 1·034, 95% CI 1·008-1·061) to 4·4% (IRR 1·044, 95% CI 1·024-1·064). We observed increased cases of S. Typhimurium PT9 and S. Typhimurium PT108 notifications above a threshold of 39 °C. This study has identified the impact of warm season temperature on different Salmonella spp. strains and confirms higher temperature has a greater effect on phage-type notifications. The findings will contribute targeted information for public health policy interventions, including food safety programmes during warmer weather.

Chronic environmental stress enhances tolerance to seasonal gradual warming in marine mussels

PubMed Central

Múgica, Maria; Izagirre, Urtzi; Sokolova, Inna M.

2017-01-01

In global climate change scenarios, seawater warming acts in concert with multiple stress sources, which may enhance the susceptibility of marine biota to thermal stress. Here, the responsiveness to seasonal gradual warming was investigated in temperate mussels from a chronically stressed population in comparison with a healthy one. Stressed and healthy mussels were subjected to gradual temperature elevation for 8 days (1°C per day; fall: 16–24°C, winter: 12–20°C, summer: 20–28°C) and kept at elevated temperature for 3 weeks. Healthy mussels experienced thermal stress and entered the time-limited survival period in the fall, became acclimated in winter and exhibited sublethal damage in summer. In stressed mussels, thermal stress and subsequent health deterioration were elicited in the fall but no transition into the critical period of time-limited survival was observed. Stressed mussels did not become acclimated to 20°C in winter, when they experienced low-to-moderate thermal stress, and did not experience sublethal damage at 28°C in summer, showing instead signs of metabolic rate depression. Overall, although the thermal threshold was lowered in chronically stressed mussels, they exhibited enhanced tolerance to seasonal gradual warming, especially in summer. These results challenge current assumptions on the susceptibility of marine biota to the interactive effects of seawater warming and pollution. PMID:28333994

Disaggregating from daily to sub-daily rainfall under a future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-04-01

We describe an algorithm for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous fine-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of atmospheric predictors representative of the future climate. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric profile more reflective of expected future conditions. When looking at the scaling from daily to sub-daily rainfall over the historical record, it was found that the relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically showing more intense rain falling over shorter periods compared with cooler seasons and stations. Importantly, by regressing against atmospheric covariates such as temperature this effect was almost entirely eliminated, providing a basis for suggesting the approach may be valid when extrapolating sub-daily sequences to a future climate. The method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, and showed that when holding the total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of a short duration (6 minute) rainfall increased by between 4.1% and 13.4% per degree change in temperature for the maximum six minute burst, between 3.1% and 6.8% for the maximum one hour burst, and between 1.5% and 3.5% for the fraction of the day with no rainfall. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of precipitation in the future is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

2018-03-01

Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

Grassland bird productivity in warm season grass fields in southwest Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byers, Carolyn M.; Ribic, Christine; Sample, David W.; Dadisman, John D.; Guttery, Michael

2017-01-01

Surrogate grasslands established through federal set-aside programs, such as U.S. Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), provide important habitat for grassland birds. Warm season grass CRP fields as a group have the potential for providing a continuum of habitat structure for breeding birds, depending on how the fields are managed and their floristic composition. We studied the nesting activity of four obligate grassland bird species, Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus), Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna), Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), and Henslow's Sparrow (A. henslowii), in relation to vegetative composition and fire management in warm season CRP fields in southwest Wisconsin during 2009–2011. Intraspecific variation in apparent nest density was related to the number of years since the field was burned. Apparent Grasshopper Sparrow nest density was highest in the breeding season immediately following spring burns, apparent Henslow's Sparrow nest density was highest 1 y post burn, and apparent Bobolink and Eastern Meadowlark nest densities were higher in post fire years one to three. Grasshopper Sparrow nest density was highest on sites with more diverse vegetation, specifically prairie forbs, and on sites with shorter less dense vegetation. Bobolink, Eastern Meadowlark, and Henslow's Sparrow apparent nest densities were higher on sites with deeper litter; litter was the vegetative component that was most affected by spring burns. Overall nest success was 0.487 for Bobolink (22 d nesting period), 0.478 for Eastern Meadowlark (25 d nesting period), 0.507 for Grasshopper Sparrow (22 d nesting period), and 0.151 for Henslow's Sparrow (21 d nesting period). The major nest predators were grassland-associated species: thirteen-lined ground squirrel (Ictidomys tridecemlineatus), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), milk snake (Lampropeltis triangulum), American badger (Taxidea taxus), and western fox snake (Elaphe vulpina). Overall

From the Lab Bench: A special use for warm-season grasses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A column was written to discuss the uses of warm-season annual and perennial grasses in Kentucky. These grasses are typically planted in small acreages on a farm to provide grazing during the summer slump in growth of tall fescue pastures. Moving cattle from toxic endophyte-infected tall fescue pa...

Responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to experimental warming in wheat season under conventional tillage and no-tillage fields.

PubMed

Tu, Chun; Li, Fadong

2017-04-01

Understanding the effects of warming on greenhouse gas (GHG, such as N 2 O, CH 4 and CO 2 ) feedbacks to climate change represents the major environmental issue. However, little information is available on how warming effects on GHG fluxes in farmland of North China Plain (NCP). An infrared warming simulation experiment was used to assess the responses of N 2 O, CH 4 and CO 2 to warming in wheat season of 2012-2014 from conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT) systems. The results showed that warming increased cumulative N 2 O emission by 7.7% in CT but decreased it by 9.7% in NT fields (p<0.05). Cumulative CH 4 uptake and CO 2 emission were increased by 28.7%-51.7% and 6.3%-15.9% in both two tillage systems, respectively (p<0.05). The stepwise regressions relationship between GHG fluxes and soil temperature and soil moisture indicated that the supply soil moisture due to irrigation and precipitation would enhance the positive warming effects on GHG fluxes in two wheat seasons. However, in 2013, the long-term drought stress due to infrared warming and less precipitation decreased N 2 O and CO 2 emission in warmed treatments. In contrast, warming during this time increased CH 4 emission from deep soil depth. Across two years wheat seasons, warming significantly decreased by 30.3% and 63.9% sustained-flux global warming potential (SGWP) of N 2 O and CH 4 expressed as CO 2 equivalent in CT and NT fields, respectively. However, increase in soil CO 2 emission indicated that future warming projection might provide positive feedback between soil C release and global warming in NCP. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Simulation and Prediction of Warm Season Drought in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hailan; Chang, Yehui; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Koster, Randal D.

2018-01-01

This presentation presents our recent work on model simulation and prediction of warm season drought in North America. The emphasis will be on the contribution from the leading modes of subseasonal atmospheric circulation variability, which are often present in the form of stationary Rossby waves. Here we take advantage of the results from observations, reanalyses, and simulations and reforecasts performed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric and coupled General Circulation Model (GCM). Our results show that stationary Rossby waves play a key role in Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric circulation and surface meteorology variability on subseasonal timescales. In particular, such waves have been crucial to the development of recent short-term warm season heat waves and droughts over North America (e.g. the 1988, 1998, and 2012 summer droughts) and northern Eurasia (e.g., the 2003 summer heat wave over Europe and the 2010 summer drought and heat wave over Russia). Through an investigation of the physical processes by which these waves lead to the development of warm season drought in North America, it is further found that these waves can serve as a potential source of drought predictability. In order to properly represent their effect and exploit this source of predictability, a model needs to correctly simulate the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean jet streams and be able to predict the sources of these waves. Given the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM deficiency in simulating the NH jet streams and tropical convection during boreal summer, an approach has been developed to artificially remove much of model mean biases, which leads to considerable improvement in model simulation and prediction of stationary Rossby waves and drought development in North America. Our study points to the need to identify key model biases that limit model simulation and prediction of regional climate extremes, and diagnose the origin of these biases so as to inform modeling

Season, Sex, Age, and Education as Modifiers of the Effects of Outdoor Air Pollution on Daily Mortality in Shanghai, China: The Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) Study

PubMed Central

Kan, Haidong; London, Stephanie J.; Chen, Guohai; Zhang, Yunhui; Song, Guixiang; Zhao, Naiqing; Jiang, Lili; Chen, Bingheng

2008-01-01

Background Various factors can modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution. Prior findings about modifiers are inconsistent, and most of these studies were conducted in developed countries. Objectives We conducted a time-series analysis to examine the modifying effect of season, sex, age, and education on the association between outdoor air pollutants [particulate matter < 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone] and daily mortality in Shanghai, China, using 4 years of daily data (2001–2004). Methods Using a natural spline model to analyze the data, we examined effects of air pollution for the warm season (April–September) and cool season (October–March) separately. For total mortality, we examined the association stratified by sex and age. Stratified analysis by educational attainment was conducted for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Results Outdoor air pollution was associated with mortality from all causes and from cardiorespiratory diseases in Shanghai. An increase of 10 μg/m3 in a 2-day average concentration of PM10, SO2, NO2, and O3 corresponds to increases in all-cause mortality of 0.25% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.14–0.37), 0.95% (95% CI, 0.62–1.28), 0.97% (95% CI, 0.66–1.27), and 0.31% (95% CI, 0.04–0.58), respectively. The effects of air pollutants were more evident in the cool season than in the warm season, and females and the elderly were more vulnerable to outdoor air pollution. Effects of air pollution were generally greater in residents with low educational attainment (illiterate or primary school) compared with those with high educational attainment (middle school or above). Conclusions Season, sex, age, and education may modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution in Shanghai. These findings provide new information about the effects of modifiers on the relationship between daily mortality and air pollution in developing countries and may have

Season, sex, age, and education as modifiers of the effects of outdoor air pollution on daily mortality in Shanghai, China: The Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) Study.

PubMed

Kan, Haidong; London, Stephanie J; Chen, Guohai; Zhang, Yunhui; Song, Guixiang; Zhao, Naiqing; Jiang, Lili; Chen, Bingheng

2008-09-01

Various factors can modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution. Prior findings about modifiers are inconsistent, and most of these studies were conducted in developed countries. We conducted a time-series analysis to examine the modifying effect of season, sex, age, and education on the association between outdoor air pollutants [particulate matter < 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone] and daily mortality in Shanghai, China, using 4 years of daily data (2001-2004). Using a natural spline model to analyze the data, we examined effects of air pollution for the warm season (April-September) and cool season (October-March) separately. For total mortality, we examined the association stratified by sex and age. Stratified analysis by educational attainment was conducted for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Outdoor air pollution was associated with mortality from all causes and from cardiorespiratory diseases in Shanghai. An increase of 10 mug/m(3) in a 2-day average concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2), and O(3) corresponds to increases in all-cause mortality of 0.25% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.14-0.37), 0.95% (95% CI, 0.62-1.28), 0.97% (95% CI, 0.66-1.27), and 0.31% (95% CI, 0.04-0.58), respectively. The effects of air pollutants were more evident in the cool season than in the warm season, and females and the elderly were more vulnerable to outdoor air pollution. Effects of air pollution were generally greater in residents with low educational attainment (illiterate or primary school) compared with those with high educational attainment (middle school or above). Season, sex, age, and education may modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution in Shanghai. These findings provide new information about the effects of modifiers on the relationship between daily mortality and air pollution in developing countries and may have implications for local environmental and social policies.

Advances in DNA markers and breeding for warm and cool-season turfgrasses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Warm and cool-season turfgrasses are used on lawns, parks, sport fields, golf courses and along highways and have many benefits such as erosion control, soil carbon sequestration, water filtration, heat dissipation, and providing aesthetic value. Although approximately 35,850 km2 in the United State...

On the Seasonality of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichler, T.; Horan, M.

2017-12-01

The downward influence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) creates significant tropospheric circulation anomalies that last for weeks. It is therefore of theoretical and practical interest to understand the time when SSWs are most likely to occur and the controlling factors for the temporal distribution of SSWs. Conceivably, the distribution between mid-winter and late-winter is controlled by the interplay between decreasing eddy convergence in the region of the polar vortex and the weakening strength of the polar vortex. General circulation models (GCMs) tend to produce SSW maxima later in winter than observations, which has been considered as a model deficiency. However, the observed record is short, suggesting that under-sampling of SSWs may contribute to this discrepancy. Here, we study the climatological frequency distribution of SSWs and related events in a long control simulation with a stratosphere resolving GCM. We also create a simple statistical model to determine the primary factors controlling the SSW distribution. The statistical model is based on the daily climatological mean, standard deviation, and autocorrelation of stratospheric winds, and assumes that the winds follow a normal distribution. We find that the null hypothesis, that model and observations stem from the same distribution, cannot be rejected, suggesting that the mid-winter SSW maximum seen in the observations is due to sampling uncertainty. We also find that the statistical model faithfully reproduces the seasonal distribution of SSWs, and that the decreasing climatological strength of the polar vortex is the primary factor for it. We conclude that the late-winter SSW maximum seen in most models is realistic and that late events will be more prominent in future observations. We further conclude that SSWs simply form the tail of normally distributed stratospheric winds, suggesting that there is a continuum of weak polar vortex states and that statistically there is nothing special

Recent warming by latitude associated with increased length of ragweed pollen season in central North America

PubMed Central

Ziska, Lewis; Knowlton, Kim; Rogers, Christine; Dalan, Dan; Tierney, Nicole; Elder, Mary Ann; Filley, Warren; Shropshire, Jeanne; Ford, Linda B.; Hedberg, Curtis; Fleetwood, Pamela; Hovanky, Kim T.; Kavanaugh, Tony; Fulford, George; Vrtis, Rose F.; Patz, Jonathan A.; Portnoy, Jay; Coates, Frances; Bielory, Leonard; Frenz, David

2011-01-01

A fundamental aspect of climate change is the potential shifts in flowering phenology and pollen initiation associated with milder winters and warmer seasonal air temperature. Earlier floral anthesis has been suggested, in turn, to have a role in human disease by increasing time of exposure to pollen that causes allergic rhinitis and related asthma. However, earlier floral initiation does not necessarily alter the temporal duration of the pollen season, and, to date, no consistent continental trend in pollen season length has been demonstrated. Here we report that duration of the ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen season has been increasing in recent decades as a function of latitude in North America. Latitudinal effects on increasing season length were associated primarily with a delay in first frost of the fall season and lengthening of the frost free period. Overall, these data indicate a significant increase in the length of the ragweed pollen season by as much as 13–27 d at latitudes above ~44°N since 1995. This is consistent with recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections regarding enhanced warming as a function of latitude. If similar warming trends accompany long-term climate change, greater exposure times to seasonal allergens may occur with subsequent effects on public health. PMID:21368130

Seasonal warming of the Middle Atlantic Bight Cold Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lentz, S. J.

2017-02-01

The Cold Pool is a 20-60 m thick band of cold, near-bottom water that persists from spring to fall over the midshelf and outer shelf of the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and Southern Flank of Georges Bank. The Cold Pool is remnant winter water bounded above by the seasonal thermocline and offshore by warmer slope water. Historical temperature profiles are used to characterize the average annual evolution and spatial structure of the Cold Pool. The Cold Pool gradually warms from spring to summer at a rate of order 1°C month-1. The warming rate is faster in shallower water where the Cold Pool is thinner, consistent with a vertical turbulent heat flux from the thermocline to the Cold Pool. The Cold Pool warming rate also varies along the shelf; it is larger over Georges Bank and smaller in the southern MAB. The mean turbulent diffusivities at the top of the Cold Pool, estimated from the spring to summer mean heat balance, are an order of magnitude larger over Georges Bank than in the southern MAB, consistent with much stronger tidal mixing over Georges Bank than in the southern MAB. The stronger tidal mixing causes the Cold Pool to warm more rapidly over Georges Bank and the eastern New England shelf than in the New York Bight or southern MAB. Consequently, the coldest Cold Pool water is located in the New York Bight from late spring to summer.

East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia.

PubMed

Zhang, Huan; Werner, Johannes P; García-Bustamante, Elena; González-Rouco, Fidel; Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo; Fraedrich, Klaus; Jungclaus, Johann H; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Zhu, Xiuhua; Xoplaki, Elena; Chen, Fahu; Duan, Jianping; Ge, Quansheng; Hao, Zhixin; Ivanov, Martin; Schneider, Lea; Talento, Stefanie; Wang, Jianglin; Yang, Bao; Luterbacher, Jürg

2018-05-16

East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1-2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperature reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900-1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.

Positive feedback of greenhouse gas balances to warming is determined by non-growing season emissions in an alpine meadow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, S.; Wang, J.; Quan, Q.; Chen, W.; Wen, X.; Yu, G.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) in response to climate warming and human activity. So far, numerous previous studies have evaluated the CO2 budget, but little attention has paid to CH4 and N2O budgets and the concurrent balance of these three gases in combination, especially in the non-growing season. Here, we synthesized eddy covariance measurement with the automatic chamber measurements of CO2, CH4, and N2O exposed to three levels of temperature treatments (ambient, +1.5 °C, +2.5 °C) and two disturbance treatments (ummowing, mowing) in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. We have found that warming caused increase in CH4 uptake and decrease in N2O emission offset little of the enhancement in CO2 emission, triggering a positive feedback to climate warming. Warming switches the ecosystem from a net sink (-17 ± 14 g CO2-eq m-2 yr-1) in the control to a net source of greenhouse gases of 94 ± 36 gCO2-eq m-2 yr-1 in the plots with +1.5 °C warming treatment, and 177 ± 6 gCO2-eq m-2 yr-1 in the plots with +2.5 °C warming treatment. The changes in the non-growing season balance, rather than those in the growing season, dominate the warming responses of annual greehouse gas balance. And this is not changed by mowing. The dominant role of responses of winter greenhouse gas balance in the positive feedback of ecosystem to climate warming highlights that greenhouse gas balance in cold season has to be considered when assessing climate-carbon cycle feedback.

Warm Season Temperatures and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, Georgia

PubMed Central

Winquist, Andrea; Grundstein, Andrew; Chang, Howard H.; Hess, Jeremy; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

2016-01-01

Purpose Extreme heat events will likely increase in frequency with climate change. Heat-related health effects are better documented among the elderly than among younger age groups. We assessed associations between warm-season ambient temperature and emergency department (ED) visits across ages in Atlanta during 1993-2012. Methods We examined daily counts of ED visits with primary diagnoses of heat illness, fluid/electrolyte imbalances, renal disease, cardiorespiratory diseases, and intestinal infections by age group (0-4, 5-18, 19-64, 65+ years) in relation to daily maximum temperature (TMX) using Poisson time series models that included cubic terms for TMX at single-day lags of 0-6 days, controlling for maximum dew-point temperature, time trends, week day, holidays, and hospital participation periods. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for TMX changes from 27 °C to 32 °C (25th to 75th percentile) and conducted extensive sensitivity analyses. Results We observed associations between TMX and ED visits for all internal causes, heat illness, fluid/electrolyte imbalances, renal diseases, asthma/wheeze, diabetes, and intestinal infections. Age groups with the strongest observed associations were 65+ years for all internal causes [lag 0 RR (CI)=1.022 (1.016-1.028)] and diabetes [lag 0 RR=1.050 (1.008-1.095)]; 19-64 years for fluid/electrolyte imbalances [lag 0 RR=1.170 (1.136-1.205)] and renal disease [lag 1 RR=1.082 (1.065-1.099)]; and 5-18 years for asthma/wheeze [lag 2 RR=1.059 (1.030-1.088)] and intestinal infections [lag 1 RR=1.120 (1.041-1.205)]. Conclusions Varying strengths of associations between TMX and ED visits by age suggest that optimal interventions and health-impact projections would account for varying heat health impacts across ages. PMID:26922412

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.

2018-03-01

Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S), which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

Annual warm-season grasses vary for forage yield, quality, and competitiveness with weeds

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Warm-season annual grasses may be suitable as herbicide-free forage crops. A two-year field study was conducted to determine whether tillage system and nitrogen (N) fertilizer application method influenced crop and weed biomass, water use, water use efficiency (WUE), and forage quality of three war...

Fall season atypically warm weather event leads to substantial CH4 loss in Arctic ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zona, Donatella; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Losacco, Salvatore; Murphy, Patrick; Oechel, Walter

2014-05-01

In the last century (during 1875-2008) high-latitudes are warming at a rate of 1.360C century-1, almost 2 times faster than the Northern Hemisphere trend (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This warming has been more intense outside of the summer season, with anomalies of 1.09, 1.59, 1.730C in the fall, winter, and spring season respectively (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This substantial temperature anomalies have the potential to increase the emission of greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes from arctic tundra ecosystems. In particular, CH4 emissions, which are primarily controlled by temperature (in addition to water table), can steeply increase with warming. Despite the potential relevance of CH4 emissions, very few measurements have been performed outside of the growing season across the entire Arctic, due to logistic constrains. Importantly, no flux measurements achieved a temporal and spatial data coverage sufficient to estimate with confidence an annual CH4 emissions from tundra ecosystem in Alaska, and its sensitivity to warming. Fall 2013 was unusually warm in central and northern Alaska. Following a relatively warm summer with dramatically above-average rainfall, the October mean monthly temperatures was the 4th and top warmest in Barrow (1949-2013) and Ivotuk (1998-2013), respectively. As we just upgraded several eddy covariance towers to measure CO2 and CH4 fluxes year-round, the atypical weather conditions of fall 2013 represented a unique chance for testing the sensitivity of CH4 loss to these atypically warm temperatures. All our sites across a latitudinal gradient (from the northern site, Barrow, to the southern site, Ivotuk), presented substantial CH4 loss in the fall. Importantly, in two of these sites (Barrow, Ivotuk) where the fall weather was substantially warmer than the long term trend, fall CH4 emission represented between 44-63% of the June-November cumulative emission. Surprisingly, in the southernmost site (Ivotuk), when the temperature anomaly was the

Daily and seasonal activity patterns of free range South-American rattlesnake (Crotalus durissus).

PubMed

Tozetti, Alexandro M; Martins, Marcio

2013-09-01

This study aimed at describing daily and seasonal variation in the activity of a population of South-American rattlesnakes (Crotalus durissus) in a savanna like habitat (Cerrado) in Southeastern Brazil. Seasonal and daily activities of snakes were evaluated by the number of captures of snakes during road surveys, accidental encounters, and relocations by radio-tracking. Our results show that climatic variables such as air temperature and rainfall have little influence on the activity pattern of rattlesnakes. Our findings indicate that rattlesnakes spend most of the day resting and most of the night in ambush posture. The South-American rattlesnake is active throughout the year with a discrete peak in activity of males during the matting season. The possibility of maintaining activity levels even during the coldest and driest season can facilitate the colonization of several habitats in South America. This possibility currently facilitates the colonization of deforested areas by rattlesnakes.

Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the

Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

2016-12-02

Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.

Specificity Responses of Grasshoppers in Temperate Grasslands to Diel Asymmetric Warming

PubMed Central

Wu, Tingjuan; Hao, Shuguang; Sun, Osbert Jianxin; Kang, Le

2012-01-01

Background Global warming is characterized by not only an increase in the daily mean temperature, but also a diel asymmetric pattern. However, most of the current studies on climate change have only concerned with the mean values of the warming trend. Although many studies have been conducted concerning the responses of insects to climate change, studies that address the issue of diel asymmetric warming under field conditions are not found in the literature. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a field climate manipulative experiment and investigated developmental and demographic responses to diel asymmetric warming in three grasshopper species (an early-season species Dasyhippus barbipes, a mid-season species Oedaleus asiaticus, and a late-season species Chorthippus fallax). It was found that warming generally advanced the development of eggs and nymphs, but had no apparent impacts on the hatching rate of eggs, the emergence rate of nymphs and the survival and fecundity of adults in all the three species. Nighttime warming was more effective in advancing egg development than the daytime warming. The emergence time of adults was differentially advanced by warming in the three species; it was advanced by 5.64 days in C. fallax, 3.55 days in O. asiaticus, and 1.96 days in D. barbipes. This phenological advancement was associated with increases in the effective GDDs accumulation. Conclusions/Significance Results in this study indicate that the responses of the three grasshopper species to warming are influenced by several factors, including species traits, developmental stage, and the thermal sensitivity of the species. Moreover, species with diapausing eggs are less responsive to changes in temperature regimes, suggesting that development of diapausing eggs is a protective mechanism in early-season grasshopper for avoiding the risk of pre-winter hatching. Our results highlight the need to consider the complex relationships between climate change and

Seasonally different response of photosynthetic activity to daytime and night-time warming in the Northern Hemisphere

DOE PAGES

Tan, Jianguang; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Anping; ...

2014-08-27

Over the last century the Northern Hemisphere has experienced rapid climate warming, but this warming has not been evenly distributed seasonally, as well as diurnally. The implications of such seasonal and diurnal heterogeneous warming on regional and global vegetation photosynthetic activity, however, are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated for different seasons how photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with changes in seasonal daytime and night-time temperature across the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2011 obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Our analysis revealed some striking seasonal differences in themore » response of NDVI to changes in day- versus night-time temperatures. For instance, while higher daytime temperature (T max) is generally associated with higher NDVI values across the boreal zone, the area exhibiting a statistically significant positive correlation between T max and NDVI is much larger in spring (41% of area in boreal zone – total area 12.6 × 10 6 km 2) than in summer and autumn (14% and 9%, respectively). In contrast to the predominantly positive response of boreal ecosystems to changes in T max, increases in T max tended to negatively influence vegetation growth in temperate dry regions, particularly during summer. Changes in night-time temperature (T min) correlated negatively with autumnal NDVI in most of the Northern Hemisphere, but had a positive effect on spring and summer NDVI in most temperate regions (e.g., Central North America and Central Asia). Such divergent covariance between the photosynthetic activity of Northern Hemispheric vegetation and day- and night-time temperature changes among different seasons and climate zones suggests a changing dominance of ecophysiological processes across time and space. Lastly, understanding the seasonally different responses of vegetation photosynthetic activity to

Daily and seasonal rhythms in the respiratory sensitivity of red-eared sliders (Trachemys scripta elegans).

PubMed

Reyes, Catalina; Milsom, William K

2009-10-01

The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the daily and seasonal changes in ventilation and breathing pattern previously documented in red-eared sliders resulted solely from daily and seasonal oscillations in metabolism or also from changes in chemoreflex sensitivity. Turtles were exposed to natural environmental conditions over a one year period. In each season, oxygen consumption, ventilation and breathing pattern were measured continuously for 24 h while turtles were breathing air and for 24 h while they were breathing a hypoxic-hypercapnic gas mixture (H-H). We found that oxygen consumption was reduced equally during the day and night under H-H in all seasons except spring. Ventilation was stimulated by H-H but the magnitude of the response was always less at night. On average, it was also less in the winter and greater in the reproductive season. The data indicate that the day-night differences in ventilation and breathing pattern seen previously resulted from daily changes in chemoreflex sensitivity whereas the seasonal changes were strictly due to changes in metabolism. Regardless of mechanism, the changes resulted in longer apneas at night and in the winter at any given level of total ventilation, facilitating longer submergence at times of the day and year when turtles are most vulnerable.

Relationships between Rainy Days, Mean Daily Intensity, and Seasonal Rainfall over the Koyna Catchment during 1961–2005

PubMed Central

Nandargi, S.; Mulye, S. S.

2012-01-01

There are limitations in using monthly rainfall totals in studies of rainfall climatology as well as in hydrological and agricultural investigations. Variations in rainfall may be considered to result from frequency changes in the daily rainfall of the respective regime. In the present study, daily rainfall data of the stations inside the Koyna catchment has been analysed for the period of 1961–2005 to understand the relationship between the rain and rainy days, mean daily intensity (MDI) and seasonal rainfall over the catchment on monthly as well as seasonal scale. Considering the topographical location of the catchment, analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 8 stations suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity. So far as seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is considered, the logarithmic relationship is found to be better. PMID:22654646

Mercury concentration in phytoplankton in response to warming of an autumn - winter season.

PubMed

Bełdowska, Magdalena; Kobos, Justyna

2016-08-01

Among other climate changes in the southern Baltic, there is a tendency towards warming, especially in autumn-winter. As a result, the ice cover on the coastal zone often fails to occur. This is conducive to the thriving of phytoplankton, in which metals, including mercury, can be accumulated. The dry deposition of atmospheric Hg during heating seasons is more intense than in non-heating seasons, owing to the combustion of fossil fuels for heating purposes. This has resulted in studies into the role of phytoplankton in the introduction of Hg into the first link of trophic chain, as a function of autumn and winter warming in the coastal zone of the lagoon. The studies were conducted at two stations in the coastal zone of the southern Baltic, in the Puck Lagoon, between December 2011 and May 2013. The obtained results show that, in the estuary region, the lack of ice cover can lead to a 30% increase and during an "extremely warm" autumn and winter an increase of up to three-fold in the mean annual Hg pool in phytoplankton (mass of Hg in phytoplankton per liter of seawater). The Hg content in phytoplankton was higher when Mesodinium rubrum was prevalent in the biomass, while the proportion of dinoflagellates was small. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weather conditions and visits to the medical wing of emergency rooms in a metropolitan area during the warm season in Israel: a predictive model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikov, Ilya; Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra; Chetrit, Angela; Stav, Nir; Epstein, Yoram

2012-01-01

Global climate changes affect health and present new challenges to healthcare systems. The aim of the present study was to analyze the pattern of visits to the medical wing of emergency rooms (ERs) in public hospitals during warm seasons, and to develop a predictive model that will forecast the number of visits to ERs 2 days ahead. Data on daily visits to the ERs of the four largest medical centers in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area during the warm months of the year (April-October, 2001-2004), the corresponding daily meteorological data, daily electrical power consumption (a surrogate marker for air-conditioning), air-pollution parameters, and calendar information were obtained and used in the analyses. The predictive model employed a time series analysis with transitional Poisson regression. The concise multivariable model was highly accurate ( r 2 = 0.819). The contribution of mean daily temperature was small but significant: an increase of 1°C in ambient temperature was associated with a 1.47% increase in the number of ER visits ( P < 0.001). An increase in electrical power consumption significantly attenuated the effect of weather conditions on ER visits by 4% per 1,000 MWh ( P < 0.001). Higher daily mean SO2 concentrations were associated with a greater number of ER visits (1% per 1 ppb increment; P = 0.017). Calendar data were the main predictors of ER visits ( r 2 = 0.794). The predictive model was highly accurate in forecasting the number of visits to ERs 2 days ahead. The marginal effect of temperature on the number of ER visits can be attributed to behavioral adaptations, including the use of air-conditioning.

Daily and seasonal activity patterns in the eastern gray squirrel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bland, M.E.

1977-03-01

The daily and seasonal activity patterns of the eastern gray squirrel were investigated between July 1, 1971 and September 16, 1972. Seasonal variations existed in the amount of time per day squirrels were active, the time of onset and cessation of activity, and the size of home range. Squirrels were most active in the fall and spring and least active in the winter. Two peaks in activity (morning and evening) with a mid-day resting period were characteristic of the summer activity pattern. During the winter one brief period of activity occurred during the warm mid-day hours. In the fall themore » time of onset of activity was consistent and occurred 20 to 30 minutes before sunrise. Cessation of activity was also regular and took place 20 to 30 minutes after sunset. Times of onset and cessation of activity were irregular during the winter and summer with onset usually occurring after sunrise and cessation before sunset. Home range size was smallest in winter and largest in late spring and late summer. Male and female range sizes were similar in fall and winter but in the spring and summer ranges of males exceeded those of females. During winter one night nest location was used per given two week period and daytime activity was restricted to the area around the den site. In spring, summer, and fall each squirrel used between two and three nest locations per two week period and squirrels traveled considerable distance from the den site. Hardwood and cedar forests were heavily utilized by the squirrels with approximately 53 percent of the locations occurring in hardwood forests and 38 percent in cedar forests. Correlations between the amount of time per day squirrels were active and various abiotic and biotic factors were made. Snow cover and/or extremely cold temperatures during the winter and early spring curtailed movement, and rainy weather in summer decreased activity. The availability of acorns in the autumn and the appearance of food in the spring increased

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

Incorporating residual temperature and specific humidity in predicting weather-dependent warm-season electricity consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Huade; Beecham, Simon; Xu, Hanqiu; Ingleton, Greg

2017-02-01

Climate warming and increasing variability challenges the electricity supply in warm seasons. A good quantitative representation of the relationship between warm-season electricity consumption and weather condition provides necessary information for long-term electricity planning and short-term electricity management. In this study, an extended version of cooling degree days (ECDD) is proposed for better characterisation of this relationship. The ECDD includes temperature, residual temperature and specific humidity effects. The residual temperature is introduced for the first time to reflect the building thermal inertia effect on electricity consumption. The study is based on the electricity consumption data of four multiple-street city blocks and three office buildings. It is found that the residual temperature effect is about 20% of the current-day temperature effect at the block scale, and increases with a large variation at the building scale. Investigation of this residual temperature effect provides insight to the influence of building designs and structures on electricity consumption. The specific humidity effect appears to be more important at the building scale than at the block scale. A building with high energy performance does not necessarily have low specific humidity dependence. The new ECDD better reflects the weather dependence of electricity consumption than the conventional CDD method.

Seasonal variations in methane fluxes in response to summer warming and leaf litter addition in a subarctic heath ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedersen, Emily Pickering; Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders

2017-08-01

Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas controlled by both biotic and abiotic processes. Few studies have investigated CH4 fluxes in subarctic heath ecosystems, and climate change-induced shifts in CH4 flux and the overall carbon budget are therefore largely unknown. Hence, there is an urgent need for long-term in situ experiments allowing for the study of ecosystem processes over time scales relevant to environmental change. Here we present in situ CH4 and CO2 flux measurements from a wet heath ecosystem in northern Sweden subjected to 16 years of manipulations, including summer warming with open-top chambers, birch leaf litter addition, and the combination thereof. Throughout the snow-free season, the ecosystem was a net sink of CH4 and CO2 (CH4 -0.27 mg C m-2 d-1; net ecosystem exchange -1827 mg C m-2 d-1), with highest CH4 uptake rates (-0.70 mg C m-2 d-1) during fall. Warming enhanced net CO2 flux, while net CH4 flux was governed by soil moisture. Litter addition and the combination with warming significantly increased CH4 uptake rates, explained by a pronounced soil drying effect of up to 32% relative to ambient conditions. Both warming and litter addition also increased the seasonal average concentration of dissolved organic carbon in the soil. The site was a carbon sink with a net uptake of 60 g C m-2 over the snow-free season. However, warming reduced net carbon uptake by 77%, suggesting that this ecosystem type might shift from snow-free season sink to source with increasing summer temperatures.

Consistent leaf respiratory response to experimental warming of three North American deciduous trees: a comparison across seasons, years, habitats and sites.

PubMed

Wei, Xiaorong; Sendall, Kerrie M; Stefanski, Artur; Zhao, Changming; Hou, Jihua; Rich, Roy L; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Reich, Peter B

2017-03-01

Most vascular plants acclimate respiration to changes in ambient temperature, but explicit tests of these responses in field settings are rare, and how acclimation responses vary in space and time is relatively unstudied, hindering our ability to predict respiratory release of carbon under future climatic conditions. We measured temperature response curves of leaf respiration for three deciduous tree species from 2009 to 2012 in a field warming experiment (+3.4 °C above ambient) in both open and understory conditions at two sites in the southern boreal forest in Minnesota, USA. We analyzed the effects of warming on leaf respiration, and how the effects varied among species, times of season (early, middle and late parts of the growing season), sites, habitats (understory, open) and years. We hypothesized that the respiration exponent (Q10) of the short-term temperature response curve and the degree of acclimation would be smaller under conditions where plants were more likely to be substrate limited, such as in the understory or the margins of the growing season. However, in contrast to these predictions, stable Q10 and strong respiratory acclimation were consistently observed. For each species, the Q10 did not vary with experimental warming, nor was its response to warming influenced by time of season, year, site or habitat. Strong leaf respiratory acclimation to warming occurred in each species and was consistent across most sources of variation. Most of the leaf traits studied were not affected by warming, while the Q10-leaf nitrogen and R25-soluble carbohydrate relationships were observed, and shifted with warming, implying that acclimation may be associated with the adjustment in respiratory capacity and its relation to leaf nitrogen and soluble carbohydrate content. Consistent Q10 and acclimation across habitats, sites, times of season and years suggest that modeling of temperature acclimation may be possible with relatively simple functions. © The Author

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

2007-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which

Establishment of warm-season native grasses and forbs on drastically disturbed lands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, S.

Establishment of warm-season native grasses and forbs (WSNGs) has been viewed by landowners, agronomists, natural resource managers and reclamation specialists as being too expensive and difficult, especially for reclamation, which requires early stand closure and erosion control. Natural resource managers have learned a great deal about establishing WSNGs since the implementation of the 1985 Farm Bill`s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Reclamation specialists must begin to use this information to improve reclamation success. Quality control of seed equipment and planting methods has been proven to be the crucial first step in successful establishment. Seedling germination, growth and development of WSNGs aremore » different from that of introduced cool-season grasses and legumes. Specialized seed drills and spring planting periods are essential. Because shoot growth lags far behind root growth the first two seasons, WSNGs often are rejected for reclamation use. Usually, the rejection is based on preconceived notions that bare ground will erode and on reclamation specialists` desire for a closed, uniform, grassy lawn. WSNG`s extensive root systems inhibit rill and gully erosion by the fall of the first season. Planting a weakly competitive, short-lived nurse crop such as perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) at low rates with the WSNG mixture can reduce first-season sheet and rill erosion problems and give an appearance of a closed stand. Benefits of WSNGs in soil building and their acid-tolerance make them ideal species for reclamation of drastically disturbed lands. WSNGs and forbs enhance wildlife habitat and promote natural succession and the invasion of the reclamation site by other native species, particularly hardwood trees, increasing diversity and integrating the site into the local ecosystem. This is perhaps their most important attribute. Most alien grasses and legumes inhibit natural succession, slowing the development of a stable mine soil ecosystem

Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios along the southern limit of the canary upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Magda Catarina; Alvarez, Ines; deCastro, Maite; Gomez-Gesteira, Moncho; Dias, João Miguel

2017-04-01

The Canary Upwelling Ecosystem (CUE) is one of the four most important upwelling sites around the world in terms of primary production, with coastal upwelling mostly a year-round phenomenon south of 30°N. Based on annual future projections, several previous studies indicated that global warming will intensify coastal upwelling in the northern region and will induce its weakening at the southernmost latitudes. However, analysis of historical data, showed that coastal upwelling depends on the length of the time series, the season, and even the database used. Thus, despite previous efforts, an overall detailed description of seasonal upwelling trends and their effects on sea surface temperature (SST) along the Canary coast over the 21st century remains unclear. To address this issue, several regional and global wind and SST climate models from CORDEX and CMIP5 projects for the period 1976-2099 were analyzed. This research provides new insights about coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios for the CUE, with results showing opposite patterns for upwelling index (UI) trends depending on the season. A weakening of the UI occurs from May to August all along the coast, whereas it increases from October to April. Analysis of SST trends reveals a general warming throughout the area, although the warming rate is considerably lower near the shore than at open ocean locations due to coastal upwelling effects. In addition, SST projections show higher warming rates from May to August than from October to April in response to the future decreasing trend in the UI during the summer months.

Dynamics of Necrophagous Insect and Tissue Bacteria for Postmortem Interval Estimation During the Warm Season in Romania.

PubMed

Iancu, Lavinia; Sahlean, Tiberiu; Purcarea, Cristina

2016-01-01

The estimation of postmortem interval (PMI) is affected by several factors including the cause of death, the place where the body lay after death, and the weather conditions during decomposition. Given the climatic differences among biogeographic locations, the understanding of necrophagous insect species biology and ecology is required when estimating PMI. The current experimental model was developed in Romania during the warm season in an outdoor location. The aim of the study was to identify the necrophagous insect species diversity and dynamics, and to detect the bacterial species present during decomposition in order to determine if their presence or incidence timing could be useful to estimate PMI. The decomposition process of domestic swine carcasses was monitored throughout a 14-wk period (10 July-10 October 2013), along with a daily record of meteorological parameters. The chronological succession of necrophagous entomofauna comprised nine Diptera species, with the dominant presence of Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann 1819) (Calliphoridae), while only two Coleoptera species were identified, Dermestes undulatus (L. 1758) and Creophilus maxillosus Brahm 1970. The bacterial diversity and dynamics from the mouth and rectum tissues, and third-instar dipteran larvae were identified using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis and sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA gene fragments. Throughout the decomposition process, two main bacterial chronological groups were differentiated, represented by Firmicutes and Gammaproteobacteria. Twenty-six taxa from the rectal cavity and 22 from the mouth cavity were identified, with the dominant phylum in both these cavities corresponding to Firmicutes. The present data strengthen the postmortem entomological and microbial information for the warm season in this temperate-continental area, as well as the role of microbes in carcass decomposition. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of

Europe experienced a "warming hole" in autumn in the second half of the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, M.; Pokorna, L.; Huth, R.

2012-12-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there might be seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in central and eastern Europe. In this study we use daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations from the ECA&D database in Europe and the Mediterranean in the period 1961-2000 to precisely locate their seasonal and sub-seasonal trends in space and within the course of the year, and to assess the effect of circulation changes on these observed trends. Linear trends are calculated for moving "seasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Thus we obtain 365 values of "moving trends" for each station and each variant of season length. The day-to-day variability of these trends is greatest for short "seasons" of 10 and 20 days. Trends of the 90-day seasons are the most stable throughout the year and also bear the lowest trend magnitudes. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "moving trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in eastern Europe. Two regions stand out of this general picture: in Iceland and the Mediterranean, winter shows almost no trends, while in summer we see a pronounced warming. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in eastern and southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in western and central Europe in April and June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture

Gas exchange and water relations responses of spring wheat to full-season infrared warming

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Gas exchange and water relations responses to full-season in situ infrared (IR) warming were evaluated for hard red spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yecora Rojo) grown in an open field in a semi-arid desert region of the Southwest USA. A Temperature Free-Air Controlled Enhancement (T-FACE) ap...

Gas Exchange and Water Relations Responses of Spring Wheat to Full-Season Infrared Warming

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Gas exchange and water relations were evaluated under full-season in situ infrared (IR) warming for hard red spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yecora Rojo) grown in an open field in a semiarid desert region of the southwest USA. A temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) apparatus u...

Maternal exercise, season and sex modify the daily fetal heart rate rhythm.

PubMed

Sletten, J; Cornelissen, G; Assmus, J; Kiserud, T; Albrechtsen, S; Kessler, J

2018-05-13

The knowledge on biological rhythms is rapidly expanding. We aimed to define the longitudinal development of the daily (24-hour) fetal heart rate rhythm in an unrestricted, out-of-hospital setting and to examine the effects of maternal physical activity, season and fetal sex. We recruited 48 women with low-risk singleton pregnancies. Using a portable monitor for continuous fetal electrocardiography, fetal heart rate recordings were obtained around gestational weeks 24, 28, 32 and 36. Daily rhythms in fetal heart rate and fetal heart rate variation were detected by cosinor analysis; developmental trends were calculated by population-mean cosinor and multilevel analysis. For the fetal heart rate and fetal heart rate variation, a significant daily rhythm was present in 122/123 (99.2%) and 116/121 (95.9%) of the individual recordings respectively. The rhythms were best described by combining cosine waves with periods of 24 and 8 hours. With increasing gestational age, the magnitude of the fetal heart rate rhythm increased, and the peak of the fetal heart rate variation rhythm shifted from a mean of 14:25 (24 weeks) to 20:52 (36 weeks). With advancing gestation, the rhythm-adjusted mean value of the fetal heart rate decreased linearly in females (P < .001) and nonlinearly in males (quadratic function, P = .001). At 32 and 36 weeks, interindividual rhythm diversity was found in male fetuses during higher maternal physical activity and during the summer season. The dynamic development of the daily fetal heart rate rhythm during the second half of pregnancy is modified by fetal sex, maternal physical activity and season. © 2018 Scandinavian Physiological Society. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of Variable SST on Simulated Warm Season Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleeby, S. M.; Cotton, W. R.

2007-05-01

The Colorado State University - Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CSU-RAMS) is being used to examine the variability in monsoon-related warm season precipitation over Mexico and the United States due to variability in SST. Given recent improvements and increased resolution in satellite derived SSTs it is pertinent to examine the sensitivity of the RAMS model to the variety of SST data sources that are available. In particular, we are examining this dependence across continental scales over the full warm season, as well as across the regional scale centered around the Gulf of California on time scales of individual surge events. In this study we performed an ensemble of simulations that include the 2002, 2003, and 2004 warm seasons with use of the Climatology, Reynold's, AVHRR, and MODIS SSTs. From the seasonal 90-day simulations with 30km grid spacing, it was found that variations in surface latent heat flux are directly linked to differences in SST. Regions with cooler (warmer) SST have decreased (increased) moisture flux from the ocean which is in proportion to the magnitude of the SST difference. Over the eastern Pacific, differences in low-level horizontal moisture flux show a general trend toward reduced fluxes over cooler waters and very little inland impact. Over the Gulf of Mexico, however, there is substantial variability for each dataset comparison, despite having only limited variability among the SST data. Causes of this unexpected variability are not straight-forward. Precipitation impacts are greatest near the southern coast of Mexico and along the Sierra Madres. Precipitation variability over the CONUS is rather chaotic and is limited to areas impacted by the Gulf of Mexico or monsoon convection. Another unexpected outcome is the lack of variability in areas near the northern Gulf of California where SST and latent heat flux variability is a maximum. From the 7-day surge period simulations at 7km grid spacing, we found that SST differences on the

Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature

PubMed Central

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-01-01

Existing studies of the recent warming hiatus over land are primarily based on the average of daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). This study compared regional warming rates of mean temperature based on T2 and T24 calculated from hourly observations available from 1998 to 2013. Both T2 and T24 show that the warming hiatus over land is apparent in the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia, especially in cold seasons, which is closely associated with the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and cold air propagation by the Arctic-original northerly wind anomaly into mid-latitudes. However, the warming rates of T2 and T24 are significantly different at regional and seasonal scales because T2 only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. The trend has a standard deviation of 0.43 °C/decade for T2 and 0.41 °C/decade for T24, and 0.38 °C/decade for their trend difference in 5° × 5° grids. The use of T2 amplifies the regional contrasts of the warming rate, i.e., the trend underestimation in the US and overestimation at high latitudes by T2. PMID:27531421

Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkhordarian, Armineh; von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Loikith, Paul C.; Mechoso, Carlos R.

2017-10-01

We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983-2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud's lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.

The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Weather Systems to the Warm-Season Precipitation in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritsch, J. M.; Kane, R. J.; Chelius, C. R.

1986-10-01

The contribution of precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season (April-September) rainfall in the United States is evaluated. Both Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC's) and other large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems that do not quite meet Maddox's criteria for being termed an MCC are included in the evaluation. The distribution and geographical limits of the precipitation from the convective weather systems are constructed for the warm seasons of 1982, a `normal' year, and 1983, a drought year. Precipitation characteristics of the systems are compared for the 2 years to determine how large-scale drought patterns affect their precipitation production.The frequency, precipitation characteristics and hydrologic ramifications of multiple occurrences, or series, of convective weather systems are presented and discussed. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the accumulated precipitation from a series of convective complexes is investigated and compared to that of Hurricane Alicia.It is found that mesoscale convective weather systems account for approximately 30% to 70% of the warm-season (April-September) precipitation over much of the region between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River. During the June through August period, their contribution is even larger. Moreover, series of convective weather systems are very likely the most prolific precipitation producer in the United States, rivaling and even exceeding that of hurricanes.Changes in the large-scale circulation patterns affected the seasonal precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems by altering the precipitation characteristics of individual systems. In particular, for the drought period of 1983, the frequency of the convective systems remained nearly the same as in the `normal' year (1982); however, the average precipitation area and the average volumetric production significantly decreased. Nevertheless, the rainfall that was produced by

An Update to the Warm-Season Convective Wind Climatology of KSC/CCAFS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lupo, Kevin

2012-01-01

Total of 1100 convective events in the 17-year warm-season climatology at KSC/CCAFS. July and August typically are the peak of convective events, May being the minimum. Warning and non-warning level convective winds are more likely to occur in the late afternoon (1900-2000Z). Southwesterly flow regimes and wind directions produce the strongest winds. Storms moving from southwesterly direction tend to produce more warning level winds than those moving from the northerly and easterly directions.

Seasonal and daily snowmelt runoff estimates utilizing satellite data. [Wind River Mountains, Wyoming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

Methods using snowcovered area to update seasonal forecasts as snowmelt progresses are also being used in quasi-operational situations. The input of snowcovered area to snowmelt models for short term perdictions was attempted in two ways; namely, the modification of existing hydrologic models and/or the use of models that were specifically designed to use snowcovered area. A daily snowmelt runoff model was used with LANDSAT data to simulate discharge on remote basins in the Wind River Mountains of Wyoming. Daily predicted and actual flows compare closely, and, summarized over the entire snowmelt season (April 1 - September 30), the average difference is only three percent. The model and snowcovered area data are currently being tested on additional watersheds to determine the method's transferability.

Newsagents' daily personal exposures to benzo(a)pyrene in Genoa, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccardo, Maria Teresa; Stella, Anna; Redaelli, Anna; Minoia, Claudio; Valerio, Federico

Daily personal exposures to benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) of 31 newsagents working in Genoa, Italy, were evaluated throughout 1998 during two different seasonal periods (February-April and May-June). Exposures of smoker and non-smoker subjects were compared. The highest BaP exposures were those of smokers during the cold period (2.20±0.84 ng/m 3). During this same period, the BaP exposure for non-smoker subjects was 1.00±0.32 ng/m 3. Both smoker and non-smoker exposures showed a seasonal dependence, with the lowest values occurring in the warm period (smokers: 1.46±0.72 ng/m 3, non-smokers: 0.65±0.25 ng/m 3). Compared to the cold period, the warm period produced a nearly 35% reduction in BaP exposures in both smoker and non-smoker subjects. A linear correlation was observed between personal exposures and number of cigarettes smoked daily. An increase in average daily BaP exposure of 0.071±0.009 ng/m 3 for every cigarette, due to passive smoke, was calculated. Mean BaP concentrations calculated from fixed monitoring stations were nearly 40% higher than mean personal exposures of non-smoker newsagents.

Seasonal and Daily Variation in Physical Activity among Three-Year-Old Finnish Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soini, Anne; Tammelin, Tuija; Sääkslahti, Arja; Watt, Anthony; Villberg, Jari; Kettunen, Tarja; Mehtälä, Anette; Poskiparta, Marita

2014-01-01

The purposes of this study were to assess seasonal, daily, and gender variations in children's physical activity (PA). ActiGraph GT3X accelerometers were used to record the three-year-old children's PA levels for five consecutive days in autumn and winter. Complete data for both seasons were obtained for 47 children. Despite a significant…

Intake, digestibility, and passage rate of three warm-season grass hays consumed by beef steers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Florida-44 bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.] is a fine-stemmed forage selected from a Tifton-44 field near Brooksville, FL that had drifted from the original and is highly desired for horses. The objective here was to assess quality of warm-season grass hays at different maturities in stall...

Seasonal movements, migratory behavior, and site fidelity of West Indian manatees along the Atlantic coast of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deutsch, C.J.; Reid, J.P.; Bonde, R.K.; Easton, Dean E.; Kochman, H.I.; O'Shea, T.J.

2003-01-01

The West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) is endangered by human activities throughout its range, including the U.S. Atlantic coast where habitat degradation from coastal development and manatee deaths from watercraft collisions have been particularly severe. We radio-tagged and tracked 78 manatees along the east coast of Florida and Georgia over a 12-year period (1986-1998). Our goals were to characterize the seasonal movements, migratory behavior, and site fidelity of manatees in this region in order to provide information for the development of effective conservation strategies. Most study animals were tracked remotely with the Argos satellite system, which yielded a mean (SD) of 3.7 (1.6) locations per day; all were regularly tracked in the field using conventional radiotelemetry methods. The combined data collection effort yielded >93,000 locations over nearly 32,000 tag-days. The median duration of tracking was 8.3 months per individual, but numerous manatees were tracked over multiple years (max = 6.8 years). Most manatees migrated seasonally over large distances between a northerly warm-season range and a southerly winter range (median one-way distance = 280 km, max = 830 km), but 12% of individuals were resident in a relatively small area (2,300 km of coastline between southeastern Florida and Rhode Island. No study animals journeyed to the Gulf coast of Florida. Regions heavily utilized by tagged manatees included: Fernandina Beach, FL to Brunswick, GA in the warm season; northern Biscayne Bay to Port Everglades, FL in the winter; and central coastal Florida, especially the Banana River and northern Indian River lagoons, in all seasons. Daily travel rate, defined as the distance between successive mean daily locations, averaged 2.5 km (SD = 1.7), but this varied with season, migratory pattern, and sex. Adult males traveled a significantly greater distance per day than did adult females for most of the warm season, which corresponded closely with the

Seasonal variations in daily rhythms of activity in athletic horses.

PubMed

Bertolucci, C; Giannetto, C; Fazio, F; Piccione, G

2008-07-01

Circadian rhythms reflect extensive programming of biological activity that meets and exploits the challenges and opportunities offered by the periodic nature of the environment. In the present investigation, we recorded the total activity of athletic horses kept at four different times of the year (vernal equinox, summer solstice, autumn equinox and winter solstice), to evaluate the presence of seasonal variations of daily activity rhythms. Athletic Thoroughbred horses were kept in individual boxes with paddock. Digitally integrated measure of total activity of each mare was continuously recorded by actigraphy-based data loggers. Horse total activities were not evenly distributed over the day, but they were mainly diurnal during the year. Daily activity rhythms showed clear seasonal variations, with the highest daily amount of activity during the vernal equinox and the lowest during the winter solstice. Interestingly, the amount of activity during either photophase or scotophase changed significantly throughout the year. Circadian analysis of horse activities showed that the acrophase, the estimated time at which the peak of the rhythm occurs, did not change during the year, it always occurred in the middle of the photoperiod. Analysing the time structure of long-term and continuously measured activity and feeding could be a useful method to critically evaluate athletic horse management systems in which spontaneous locomotor activity and feeding are severely limited. Circadian rhythms are present in several elements of sensory motor and psychomotor functions and these would be taken into consideration to plan the training schedules and competitions in athletic horses.

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2013-01-01

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season

PubMed Central

Wallace, John M.; Fu, Qiang; Smoliak, Brian V.; Lin, Pu; Johanson, Celeste M.

2012-01-01

A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentrations alone are compared with observations for the reference interval 1965–2000. Surface air temperature trends are disaggregated by boreal cold (November-April) versus warm (May-October) seasons and by high latitude northern (N: 40°–90 °N) versus southern (S: 60 °S–40 °N) domains. A dynamical adjustment is applied to remove the component of the cold-season surface air temperature trends (over land areas poleward of 40 °N) that are attributable to changing atmospheric circulation patterns. The model simulations do not simulate the full extent of the wintertime warming over the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere continents during the later 20th century, much of which was dynamically induced. Expressed as fractions of the concurrent trend in global-mean sea surface temperature, the relative magnitude of the dynamically induced wintertime warming over domain N in the observations, the simulations with multiple forcings, and the runs forced by the buildup of greenhouse gases only is 7∶2∶1, and roughly comparable to the relative magnitude of the concurrent sea-level pressure trends. These results support the notion that the enhanced wintertime warming over high northern latitudes from 1965 to 2000 was mainly a reflection of unforced variability of the coupled climate system. Some of the simulations exhibit an enhancement of the warming along the Arctic coast, suggestive of exaggerated feedbacks. PMID:22847408

Attributing Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Warming due to CO2 Increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sejas, S.; Cai, M.

2012-12-01

Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree.

Microclimatic performance of a free-air warming and CO₂ enrichment experiment in windy Wyoming, USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LeCain, Daniel; Smith, David; Morgan, Jack

In order to plan for global changing climate experiments are being conducted in many countries, but few have monitored the effects of the climate change treatments (warming, elevated CO₂) on the experimental plot microclimate. During three years of an eight year study with year-round feedback-controlled infra-red heater warming (1.5/3.0°C day/night) and growing season free-air CO₂ enrichment (600 ppm) in the mixed-grass prairie of Wyoming, USA, we monitored soil, leaf, canopy-air, above-canopy-air temperatures and relative humidity of control and treated experimental plots and evaluated ecologically important temperature differentials. Leaves were warmed somewhat less than the target settings (1.1 & 1.5°C day/night)more » but soil was warmed more creating an average that matched the target settings extremely well both during the day and night plus the summer and winter. The site typically has about 50% bare or litter covered soil, therefore soil heat transfer is more critical than in dense canopy ecosystems. The Wyoming site commonly has strong winds (5 ms⁻¹ average) and significant daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations (as much as 30°C daily) but the warming system was nearly always able to maintain the set temperatures regardless of abiotic variation. The within canopy-air was only slightly warmed and above canopy-air was not warmed by the system, therefore convective warming was minor. Elevated CO₂ had no direct effect nor interaction with the warming treatment on microclimate. Relative humidity within the plant canopy was only slightly reduced by warming. Soil water content was reduced by warming but increased by elevated CO₂. This study demonstrates the importance of monitoring the microclimate in manipulative field global change experiments so that critical physiological and ecological conclusions can be determined. Highly variable energy demand fluctuations showed that passive IR heater warming systems will not maintain desired warming

Microclimatic performance of a free-air warming and CO₂ enrichment experiment in windy Wyoming, USA

DOE PAGES

LeCain, Daniel; Smith, David; Morgan, Jack; ...

2015-02-06

In order to plan for global changing climate experiments are being conducted in many countries, but few have monitored the effects of the climate change treatments (warming, elevated CO₂) on the experimental plot microclimate. During three years of an eight year study with year-round feedback-controlled infra-red heater warming (1.5/3.0°C day/night) and growing season free-air CO₂ enrichment (600 ppm) in the mixed-grass prairie of Wyoming, USA, we monitored soil, leaf, canopy-air, above-canopy-air temperatures and relative humidity of control and treated experimental plots and evaluated ecologically important temperature differentials. Leaves were warmed somewhat less than the target settings (1.1 & 1.5°C day/night)more » but soil was warmed more creating an average that matched the target settings extremely well both during the day and night plus the summer and winter. The site typically has about 50% bare or litter covered soil, therefore soil heat transfer is more critical than in dense canopy ecosystems. The Wyoming site commonly has strong winds (5 ms⁻¹ average) and significant daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations (as much as 30°C daily) but the warming system was nearly always able to maintain the set temperatures regardless of abiotic variation. The within canopy-air was only slightly warmed and above canopy-air was not warmed by the system, therefore convective warming was minor. Elevated CO₂ had no direct effect nor interaction with the warming treatment on microclimate. Relative humidity within the plant canopy was only slightly reduced by warming. Soil water content was reduced by warming but increased by elevated CO₂. This study demonstrates the importance of monitoring the microclimate in manipulative field global change experiments so that critical physiological and ecological conclusions can be determined. Highly variable energy demand fluctuations showed that passive IR heater warming systems will not maintain desired warming

Sodium and potassium urinary excretion levels of preschool children: Individual, daily, and seasonal differences.

PubMed

Yasutake, Kenichiro; Nagafuchi, Mikako; Izu, Ryoji; Kajiyama, Tomomi; Imai, Katsumi; Murata, Yusuke; Ohe, Kenji; Enjoji, Munechika; Tsuchihashi, Takuya

2017-06-01

In this study, the authors measured sodium and potassium concentrations in spot urine samples of preschool children on multiple days, and evaluated individual, daily, and seasonal effects. A total of 104 healthy preschool children aged 4 to 5 years were studied. Urine samples were collected from the first urine of the day after waking for three consecutive days (Monday-Wednesday) four times a year (spring, summer, autumn, winter). The authors estimated the daily urine volume as 500 mL and daily creatinine excretion as 300 mg, and used these to calculate daily sodium and potassium excretion levels. Daily sodium and potassium excretion levels and sodium to potassium ratios were highly variable. The coefficient variant in the children's excretion levels were also high within and between individuals. Sodium excretion levels and sodium to potassium ratios were higher on Monday (weekend sodium intakes) than Tuesday. Season had no effect on sodium or potassium excretion levels, but the sodium to potassium ratio was higher in summer than in winter. In conclusion, levels of urinary sodium excretion are comparatively high and those of potassium are low in preschool students, with high variability within and between individuals. ©2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

2015-04-01

The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (i.e. 2007, 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice-covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, the change in sea ice cover is very likely to have a strong impact on the local surface albedo feedback. Here we quantify the temporal changes in surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Usually feedbacks are evaluated as being representative and constant for long time periods, but we show here that the strength of climate feedbacks in fact varies strongly with time. For instance, time series of the amplitude of the surface albedo feedback, derived from future climate simulations (CIMP5, RCP8.5 up to year 2300) using a kernel method, peaks around the year 2100. This maximum is likely caused by an increased seasonality in sea-ice cover that is inherently associated with sea ice retreat. We demonstrate that the Arctic average surface albedo has a strong seasonal signature with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer/autumn. In winter when incoming solar radiation is minimal the surface albedo doesn't have an important effect on the energy balance of the climate system. The annual mean surface albedo is thus determined by the seasonality of both downwelling shortwave radiation and sea ice cover. As sea ice cover reduces the seasonal signature is modified, the transient part from maximum sea ice cover to its minimum is shortened and sharpened. The sea ice cover is reduced when downwelling shortwave radiation is maximum and thus the annual surface albedo is drastically smaller. Consequently the change in annual surface albedo with time will become larger and so will the surface albedo feedback. We conclude that a stronger seasonality in sea ice leads to a stronger surface albedo feedback, which accelerates

Seasonal and daily variations in concentrations of methyl-tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) at Cranberry Lake, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toran, L.; Lipka, C.; Baehr, A.; Reilly, T.; Baker, R.

2003-01-01

Methyl-tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), an additive used to oxygenate gasoline, has been detected in lakes in northwestern New Jersey. This occurrence has been attributed to the use of gasoline-powered watercraft. This paper documents and explains both seasonal and daily variations in MTBE concentrations at Cranberry Lake. During a recent boating season (late April to September 1999), concentrations of MTBE typically exceeded 20??g/L. MTBE concentrations varied daily from 12 to 24??g/L over a 2-week period that included the Labor Day holiday. Concentrations were highest on weekends when there is more boat traffic, which had an immediate effect on MTBE mass throughout the lake. MTBE concentrations decreased to about 2??g/L shortly after the end of the summer recreational season. The loss of MTBE can be accounted for by volatilization, with a half-life on the order of 10 days. The volatilization rate was modeled with the daily decrease in MTBE then the modeled rate was validated using the data from the seasonal decline. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term effects of warming and ocean acidification are modified by seasonal variation in species responses and environmental conditions

PubMed Central

Godbold, Jasmin A.; Solan, Martin

2013-01-01

Warming of sea surface temperatures and alteration of ocean chemistry associated with anthropogenic increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide will have profound consequences for a broad range of species, but the potential for seasonal variation to modify species and ecosystem responses to these stressors has received little attention. Here, using the longest experiment to date (542 days), we investigate how the interactive effects of warming and ocean acidification affect the growth, behaviour and associated levels of ecosystem functioning (nutrient release) for a functionally important non-calcifying intertidal polychaete (Alitta virens) under seasonally changing conditions. We find that the effects of warming, ocean acidification and their interactions are not detectable in the short term, but manifest over time through changes in growth, bioturbation and bioirrigation behaviour that, in turn, affect nutrient generation. These changes are intimately linked to species responses to seasonal variations in environmental conditions (temperature and photoperiod) that, depending upon timing, can either exacerbate or buffer the long-term directional effects of climatic forcing. Taken together, our observations caution against over emphasizing the conclusions from short-term experiments and highlight the necessity to consider the temporal expression of complex system dynamics established over appropriate timescales when forecasting the likely ecological consequences of climatic forcing. PMID:23980249

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

The Comparative Accuracy of Two Hydrologic Models in Simulating Warm-Season Runoff for Two Small, Hillslope Catchments

EPA Science Inventory

Runoff prediction is a cornerstone of water resources planning, and therefore modeling performance is a key issue. This paper investigates the comparative advantages of conceptual versus process- based models in predicting warm season runoff for upland, low-yield micro-catchments...

Acclimation of light and dark respiration to experimental and seasonal warming are mediated by changes in leaf nitrogen in Eucalyptus globulus.

PubMed

Crous, K Y; Wallin, G; Atkin, O K; Uddling, J; Af Ekenstam, A

2017-08-01

Quantifying the adjustments of leaf respiration in response to seasonal temperature variation and climate warming is crucial because carbon loss from vegetation is a large but uncertain part of the global carbon cycle. We grew fast-growing Eucalyptus globulus Labill. trees exposed to +3 °C warming and elevated CO2 in 10-m tall whole-tree chambers and measured the temperature responses of leaf mitochondrial respiration, both in light (RLight) and in darkness (RDark), over a 20-40 °C temperature range and during two different seasons. RLight was assessed using the Laisk method. Respiration rates measured at a standard temperature (25 °C - R25) were higher in warm-grown trees and in the warm season, related to higher total leaf nitrogen (N) investment with higher temperatures (both experimental and seasonal), indicating that leaf N concentrations modulated the respiratory capacity to changes in temperature. Once differences in leaf N were accounted for, there were no differences in R25 but the Q10 (i.e., short-term temperature sensitivity) was higher in late summer compared with early spring. The variation in RLight between experimental treatments and seasons was positively correlated with carboxylation capacity and photorespiration. RLight was less responsive to short-term changes in temperature than RDark, as shown by a lower Q10 in RLight compared with RDark. The overall light inhibition of R was ∼40%. Our results highlight the dynamic nature of leaf respiration to temperature variation and that the responses of RLight do not simply mirror those of RDark. Therefore, it is important not to assume that RLight is the same as RDark in ecosystem models, as doing so may lead to large errors in predicting plant CO2 release and productivity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Microclimatic Performance of a Free-Air Warming and CO2 Enrichment Experiment in Windy Wyoming, USA

PubMed Central

LeCain, Daniel; Smith, David; Morgan, Jack; Kimball, Bruce A.; Pendall, Elise; Miglietta, Franco

2015-01-01

In order to plan for global changing climate experiments are being conducted in many countries, but few have monitored the effects of the climate change treatments (warming, elevated CO2) on the experimental plot microclimate. During three years of an eight year study with year-round feedback-controlled infra-red heater warming (1.5/3.0°C day/night) and growing season free-air CO2 enrichment (600 ppm) in the mixed-grass prairie of Wyoming, USA, we monitored soil, leaf, canopy-air, above-canopy-air temperatures and relative humidity of control and treated experimental plots and evaluated ecologically important temperature differentials. Leaves were warmed somewhat less than the target settings (1.1 & 1.5°C day/night) but soil was warmed more creating an average that matched the target settings extremely well both during the day and night plus the summer and winter. The site typically has about 50% bare or litter covered soil, therefore soil heat transfer is more critical than in dense canopy ecosystems. The Wyoming site commonly has strong winds (5 ms-1 average) and significant daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations (as much as 30°C daily) but the warming system was nearly always able to maintain the set temperatures regardless of abiotic variation. The within canopy-air was only slightly warmed and above canopy-air was not warmed by the system, therefore convective warming was minor. Elevated CO2 had no direct effect nor interaction with the warming treatment on microclimate. Relative humidity within the plant canopy was only slightly reduced by warming. Soil water content was reduced by warming but increased by elevated CO2. This study demonstrates the importance of monitoring the microclimate in manipulative field global change experiments so that critical physiological and ecological conclusions can be determined. Highly variable energy demand fluctuations showed that passive IR heater warming systems will not maintain desired warming for much of the

Tradeoffs between global warming and day length on the start of the carbon uptake period in seasonally cold ecosystems.

PubMed

Wohlfahrt, Georg; Cremonese, Edoardo; Hammerle, Albin; Hörtnagl, Lukas; Galvagno, Marta; Gianelle, Damiano; Marcolla, Barbara; di Cella, Umberto Morra

2013-12-16

It is well established that warming leads to longer growing seasons in seasonally cold ecosystems. Whether this goes along with an increase in the net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) uptake is much more controversial. We studied the effects of warming on the start of the carbon uptake period (CUP) of three mountain grasslands situated along an elevational gradient in the Alps. To this end we used a simple empirical model of the net ecosystem CO 2 exchange, calibrated and forced with multi-year empirical data from each site. We show that reductions in the quantity and duration of daylight associated with earlier snowmelts were responsible for diminishing returns, in terms of carbon gain, from longer growing seasons caused by reductions in daytime photosynthetic uptake and increases in nighttime losses of CO 2 . This effect was less pronounced at high, compared to low, elevations, where the start of the CUP occurred closer to the summer solstice when changes in day length and incident radiation are minimal.

[CO2-exchange in tundra ecosystems of Vaygach Island during the unusually warm and dry vegetation season].

PubMed

Zamolodchikov, D G

2015-01-01

In summer of 2013, field studies of CO2-exchange in tundra ecosystems of Vaygach Island have been conducted using the chamber method. The models are developed that establish relationships between CO2 fluxes and key ecological factors such as temperature, photosynthetic active radiation, leaf mass of vascular plants, and depth of thawing. According to the model estimates, in 2013 vegetation season tundra ecosystems of Vaygach Island have been appearing to be a CO2 source to the atmosphere (31.9 ± 17.1 g C m(-2) season(-1)) with gross primary production equal to 136.6 ± 18.9 g C m(-2) season(-1) and ecosystem respiration of 168.5 ± ± 18.4 g C m(-2) season(-1). Emission of CO2 from the soil surface (soil respiration) has been equal, on the average, to 67.3% of the ecosystem respiration. The reason behind carbon losses by tundra ecosystems seems to be unusually warm and dry weather conditions in 2013 summer. The air temperature during summer months has been twice as high as the climatic norm for 1961-1990. Last decades, researches in the circumpolar Arctic revealed a growing trend to the carbon sink from the atmosphere to tundra ecosystems. This trend can be interrupted by unusually warm weather situations becoming more frequent and of larger scale.

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

PubMed

Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

2015-06-01

Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Microbial Community Activity is Insensitive to Passive Warming in a Semiarid Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinosa, N. J.; Gallery, R. E.; Fehmi, J. S.

2016-12-01

Soil microorganisms drive ecosystem nutrient cycling through the production of extracellular enzymes, which facilitate organic matter decomposition, and the flux of large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Although aird and semiarid ecosystems occupy over 40% of land cover and are projected to expand due to climate change, much of our current understanding of these processes comes from mesic temperate ecosystems. Semiarid ecosystems have added complexity due to the widespread biological adaptations to infrequent and discreet precipitation pulses, which enable biological activity to persist throughout dry periods and thrive following seasonal precipitation events. Additionally, the intricacies of plant-microbe interactions and the response of these interactions to a warmer climate and increased precipitation variability in semiarid ecosystems present a continued challenge for climate change research. In this study, we used a passive warming experiment with added plant debris as either woodchip or biochar, to simulate different long-term carbon additions to two common semiarid soils. The response of soil respiration, plant biomass, and microbial activity was monitored bi-annually. We hypothesized that microbial activity would increase with temperature manipulations when soil moisture limitation was alleviated by summer precipitation. The passive warming treatment was most pronounced during periods of daily and seasonal temperature maxima. For all seven hydrolytic enzymes examined, there was no significant response to experimental warming, regardless of seasonal climatic and soil moisture variation. Surprisingly, soil respiration responded positively to warming for certain carbon additions and seasons, which did not correspond with a similar response in plant biomass. The enzyme results observed here are consistent with the few other experimental results for warming in semiarid ecosystems and indicate that the soil microbial community activity of semiarid

Seasonal greening of an Arctic ecosystem in response to early snowmelt and climate warming: do plant community responses differ from species responses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steltzer, H.; Weintraub, M. N.; Sullivan, P.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Schimel, J.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Shory, R.; Livensperger, C.; Melle, C.; Segal, A. D.; Daly, K.; Tsosie, T.

2011-12-01

In the Arctic and around the world, earlier plant growth and a longer growing season are indications that warmer temperatures or other global changes are changing the seasonality of the Earth's ecosystems. These changes in plant life histories have multi-trophic level consequences that affect food webs and biogeochemical cycles. Both the response of the plant community and of individual species can affect food and habitat resources for animals or nutrient resources for microbes. Our aim was to determine if the response of an Arctic plant community differs from individual species responses to climate change. For two years in an early snowmelt and climate warming experiment in moist acidic tussock tundra, we observed the seasonal greening of the ecosystem through near-surface measurements of surface greenness and through direct observations of the timing of plant life history events for five to eight common species that differ in growth form. In 2010 when snowmelt was accelerated by 4 days, earlier snowmelt alone or in combination with climate warming extended the life history of the dominant graminoids (E. vaginatum and C. bigelowii) and willow (S. pulchra) by 3 to 4 days. For these species, new leaf production began earlier, while the timing of senescence was similar to the controls. The effect of earlier snowmelt on the life histories of birch (B. nana) and cranberry (V. vitis-idaea) was less, but warming alone tended to increase life history duration. Warming led to earlier leaf expansion for birch and delayed senescence for cranberry. We found that the onset of greening for the plant community began four days earlier, due to the earlier loss of snow cover, and that warming accelerated the rate of greening. Peak season ended 4 days earlier in response to earlier snowmelt and climate warming, due to earlier senescence by birch. In 2011, our manipulation of the snowpack by increasing energy absorption accelerated snowmelt by 15 days and control plots were snowfree

Effect of feeding warm-season annuals with orchardgrass on ruminal fermentation and methane output in continuous culture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A 4-unit, dual-flow continuous culture fermentor system was used to assess nutrient digestibility, volatile fatty acids (VFA) production, bacterial protein synthesis and CH4 output of warm-season summer annual grasses. Treatments were randomly assigned to fermentors in a 4 × 4 Latin square design us...

Trade-offs between global warming and day length on the start of the carbon uptake period in seasonally cold ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohlfahrt, Georg; Cremonese, Edoardo; Hammerle, Albin; Hörtnagl, Lukas; Galvagno, Marta; Gianelle, Damiano; Marcolla, Barbara; Cella, Umberto Morra

2013-12-01

is well established that warming leads to longer growing seasons in seasonally cold ecosystems. Whether this goes along with an increase in the net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake is much more controversial. We studied the effects of warming on the start of the carbon uptake period (CUP) of three mountain grasslands situated along an elevational gradient in the Alps. To this end, we used a simple empirical model of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, calibrated, and forced with multiyear empirical data from each site. We show that reductions in the quantity and duration of daylight associated with earlier snowmelts were responsible for diminishing returns, in terms of carbon gain, from longer growing seasons caused by reductions in daytime photosynthetic uptake and increases in nighttime losses of CO2. This effect was less pronounced at high, compared to low, elevations, where the start of the CUP occurred closer to the summer solstice when changes in day length and incident radiation are minimal.

Drivers of Daily Routines in an Ectothermic Marine Predator: Hunt Warm, Rest Warmer?

PubMed Central

Papastamatiou, Yannis P.; Watanabe, Yuuki Y.; Bradley, Darcy; Dee, Laura E.; Weng, Kevin; Lowe, Christopher G.; Caselle, Jennifer E.

2015-01-01

Animal daily routines represent a compromise between maximizing foraging success and optimizing physiological performance, while minimizing the risk of predation. For ectothermic predators, ambient temperature may also influence daily routines through its effects on physiological performance. Temperatures can fluctuate significantly over the diel cycle and ectotherms may synchronize behaviour to match thermal regimes in order to optimize fitness. We used bio-logging to quantify activity and body temperature of blacktip reef sharks (Carcharhinus melanopterus) at a tropical atoll. Behavioural observations were used to concurrently measure bite rates in herbivorous reef fishes, as an index of activity for potential diurnal prey. Sharks showed early evening peaks in activity, particularly during ebbing high tides, while body temperatures peaked several hours prior to the period of maximal activity. Herbivores also displayed peaks in activity several hours earlier than the peaks in shark activity. Sharks appeared to be least active while their body temperatures were highest and most active while temperatures were cooling, although we hypothesize that due to thermal inertia they were still warmer than their smaller prey during this period. Sharks may be most active during early evening periods as they have a sensory advantage under low light conditions and/or a thermal advantage over cooler prey. Sharks swam into shallow water during daytime low tide periods potentially to warm up and increase rates of digestion before the nocturnal activity period, which may be a strategy to maximize ingestion rates. “Hunt warm, rest warmer” may help explain the early evening activity seen in other ectothermic predators. PMID:26061229

Changes to Sub-daily Rainfall Patterns in a Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J. P.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-12-01

An algorithm is developed for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous high temporal-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is to re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of temperature-based atmospheric predictors. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric temperature profile more representative of expected future atmospheric conditions. It was found that the daily to sub-daily scaling relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically exhibiting higher rainfall intensity occurring over shorter periods within a day, compared with cooler seasons and locations. Importantly, by regressing against temperature-based atmospheric covariates, this effect was substantially reduced, suggesting that the approach also may be valid when extrapolating to a future climate. An adjusted method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, with the results showing that when holding total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of short duration rainfall increased by a median of about 5% per degree for the maximum 6 minute burst, and 3.5% for the maximum one hour burst, whereas the fraction of the day with no rainfall increased by a median of 1.5%. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of rainfall is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

Perennial warm-season grasses for producing biofuel and enhancing soil properties: an alternative to corn residue removal

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Removal of corn (Zea mays L.) residues at high rates for biofuel and other off-farm uses may negatively impact soil and the environment in the long term. Biomass removal from perennial warm-season grasses (WSGs) grown in marginally productive lands could be an alternative to corn residue removal as ...

Seasonal and daily plasma corticosterone rhythms in American toads, Bufo americanus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pancak, M.K.; Taylor, D.H.

1983-06-01

Concentrations of corticosterone were measured in the plasma of American toads, Bufo americanus, on a seasonal basis using a radioimmunoassay technique. Two populations of toads, maintained under different light conditions, were monitored to observe the effects of photoperiod on the seasonal rhythm of plasma corticosterone. Under a natural photoperiod toads demonstrated a rhythm consisting of a spring peak and a fall peak in corticosterone concentration. Toads maintained under a 12L:12D photoperiod all year round demonstrated a similar rhythm with peaks in the spring and fall. This suggests that an endogenous (circannual) rhythm of corticosterone may be playing an important rolemore » in the seasonal change of overt behavior and physiology of Bufo americanus. A daily rhythm of corticosterone was also detected in toads when blood samples were taken every 4 hr. When compared to a previously published circadian rhythm study of locomotor activity, the surge in corticosterone concentration for the day occurred at 1730 just prior to the peak in locomotor activity.« less

Daily and seasonal rhythms in immune responses of splenocytes in the freshwater snake, Natrix piscator.

PubMed

Tripathi, Manish Kumar; Singh, Ramesh; Pati, Atanu Kumar

2015-01-01

Present study was designed to examine daily and seasonal variability in the innate immune responses of splenocytes in the fresh water snake, Natrix piscator. Animals were mildly anesthetized and spleen was aseptically isolated and processed for macrophage phagocytosis, NBT reduction, nitrite production, splenocyte proliferation and serum lysozyme activity. Samples were collected at seven time points, viz., 0000, 0400, 0800, 1200, 1600, 2000 and 0000 h during three different seasons, namely summer, winter and spring. Cosinor analysis revealed that percent phagocytosis had a significant 24-h rhythm during summer and spring seasons. The peaks of rhythms in NBT reduction and nitrite release occurred in the morning hours at 10.88 h and 8.31 h, respectively, in winter. A significant 24-h rhythm was also observed in lysozyme concentration and splenocyte proliferation (both Basal and Concanavalin A stimulated) in all three seasons. A significant phase shift in splenocyte proliferation was obtained with a trend of delayed phase shift from winter to spring and from spring to summer. Of the nine variables, significant annual (seasonal) rhythms were detected in almost all variables, excluding phagocytic and splenosomatic indices. All rhythmic variables, except spleen cellularity, exhibited tightly synchronized peaks coinciding with the progressive and recrudescence phases of annual reproductive cycle. It is concluded that the snake synchronizes its daily and seasonal immune activity with the corresponding external time cues. The enhancement of immune function coinciding with one of its crucial reproductive phases might be helping it to cope with the seasonal stressors, including abundance of pathogens, which would otherwise jeopardize the successful reproduction and eventual survival of the species.

Effects of warming and nitrogen fertilization on GHG flux in the permafrost region of an alpine meadow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaopeng; Wang, Genxu; Zhang, Tao; Mao, Tianxu; Wei, Da; Hu, Zhaoyong; Song, Chunlin

2017-05-01

The limited number of in situ measurements of greenhouse gas (GHG) flux during soil freeze-thaw cycles in permafrost regions limits our ability to accurately predict how the alpine ecosystem carbon sink or source function will vary under future warming and increased nitrogen (N) deposition. An alpine meadow in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was selected, and a simulated warming with N fertilization experiment was carried out to investigate the key GHG fluxes (ecosystem respiration [Re], CH4 and N2O) in the early (EG), mid (MG) and late (LG) growing seasons. The results showed that: (i) warming (4.5 °C) increased the average seasonal Re, CH4 uptake and N2O emission by 73.5%, 65.9% and 431.6%, respectively. N fertilization (4 g N m-2) alone had no significant effect on GHG flux; the interaction of warming and N fertilization enhanced CH4 uptake by 10.3% and N2O emissions by 27.2% than warming, while there was no significant effect on the Re; (ii) the average seasonal fluxes of Re, CH4 and N2O were MG > LG > EG, and Re and CH4 uptake were most sensitive to the soil freezing process instead of soil thawing process; (iii) surface soil temperature was the main driving factor of the Re and CH4 fluxes, and the N2O flux was mainly affected by daily rainfall; (iv) in the growing season, warming increased greenhouse warming potential (GWP) of the alpine meadow by 74.5%, the N fertilization decreased GWP of the warming plots by 13.9% but it was not statistically significant. These results indicate that (i) relative to future climate warming (or permafrost thawing), there could be a hysteresis of GHG flux in the alpine meadow of permafrost region; (ii) under the scenario of climate warming, increasing N deposition has limited impacts on the feedback of GHG flux of the alpine meadow.

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. But, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ~1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ~2–3more » °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. Our approach is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.« less

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Rogers, Alistair

2017-09-01

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ˜ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ˜ 2-3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

DOE PAGES

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; ...

2017-09-19

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. But, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ~1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ~2–3more » °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. Our approach is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.« less

Weather, season, and daily stroke admissions in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goggins, William B.; Woo, Jean; Ho, Suzanne; Chan, Emily Y. Y.; Chau, P. H.

2012-09-01

Previous studies examining daily temperature and stroke incidence have given conflicting results. We undertook this retrospective study of all stroke admissions in those aged 35 years old and above to Hong Kong public hospitals from 1999 through 2006 in order to better understand the effects of meteorological conditions on stroke risk in a subtropical setting. We used Poisson Generalized Additive Models with daily hemorrhagic (HS) and ischemic stroke (IS) counts separately as outcomes, and daily mean temperature, humidity, solar radiation, rainfall, air pressure, pollutants, flu consultation rates, day of week, holidays, time trend and seasonality as predictors. Lagged effects of temperature, humidity and pollutants were also considered. A total of 23,457 HS and 107,505 IS admissions were analyzed. Mean daily temperature had a strong, consistent, negative linear association with HS admissions over the range (8.2-31.8°C) observed. A 1°C lower average temperature over the same day and previous 4 days (lags 0-4) being associated with a 2.7% (95% CI: 2.0-3.4%, P < .0.0001) higher admission rate after controlling for other variables. This association was stronger among older subjects and females. Higher lag 0-4 average change in air pressure from previous day was modestly associated with higher HS risk. The association between IS and temperature was weaker and apparent only below 22°C, with a 1°C lower average temperature (lags 0-13) below this threshold being associated with a 1.6% (95% CI:1.0-2.2%, P < 0.0001) higher IS admission rate. Pollutant levels were not associated with HS or IS. Future studies should examine HS and IS risk separately.

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kapnick, Sarah B.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C.D.

2014-01-01

The high mountains of Asia, including the Karakoram, Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, combine to form a region of perplexing hydroclimate changes. Glaciers have exhibited mass stability or even expansion in the Karakoram region1, 2, 3, contrasting with glacial mass loss across the nearby Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau1, 4, a pattern that has been termed the Karakoram anomaly. However, the remote location, complex terrain and multi-country fabric of high-mountain Asia have made it difficult to maintain longer-term monitoring systems of the meteorological components that may have influenced glacial change. Here we compare a set of high-resolution climate model simulations from 1861 to 2100 with the latest available observations to focus on the distinct seasonal cycles and resulting climate change signatures of Asia’s high-mountain ranges. We find that the Karakoram seasonal cycle is dominated by non-monsoonal winter precipitation, which uniquely protects it from reductions in annual snowfall under climate warming over the twenty-first century. The simulations show that climate change signals are detectable only with long and continuous records, and at specific elevations. Our findings suggest a meteorological mechanism for regional differences in the glacier response to climate warming.

Seasonal body size reductions with warming covary with major body size gradients in arthropod species.

PubMed

Horne, Curtis R; Hirst, Andrew G; Atkinson, David

2017-03-29

Major biological and biogeographical rules link body size variation with latitude or environmental temperature, and these rules are often studied in isolation. Within multivoltine species, seasonal temperature variation can cause substantial changes in adult body size, as subsequent generations experience different developmental conditions. Yet, unlike other size patterns, these common seasonal temperature-size gradients have never been collectively analysed. We undertake the largest analysis to date of seasonal temperature-size gradients in multivoltine arthropods, including 102 aquatic and terrestrial species from 71 global locations. Adult size declines in warmer seasons in 86% of the species examined. Aquatic species show approximately 2.5-fold greater reduction in size per °C of warming than terrestrial species, supporting the hypothesis that greater oxygen limitation in water than in air forces aquatic species to exhibit greater plasticity in body size with temperature. Total percentage change in size over the annual cycle appears relatively constant with annual temperature range but varies between environments, such that the overall size reduction in aquatic-developing species (approx. 31%) is almost threefold greater than in terrestrial species (approx. 11%). For the first time, we show that strong correlations exist between seasonal temperature-size gradients, laboratory responses and latitudinal-size clines, suggesting that these patterns share common drivers. © 2017 The Author(s).

Variations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in ambient air during haze and non-haze episodes in warm seasons in Hangzhou, China.

PubMed

Lu, Hao; Wang, Shengsheng; Wu, Zuliang; Yao, Shuiliang; Han, Jingyi; Tang, Xiujuan; Jiang, Boqiong

2017-01-01

To investigate the characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during haze episodes in warm seasons, daily PM 2.5 and gaseous samples were collected from March to September 2015 in Hangzhou, China. Daily samples were further divided into four groups by the definition of haze according to visibility and relative humidity (RH), including non-haze (visibility, >10 km), light haze (visibility, 8-10 km, RH <90 %), medium haze (visibility, 5-8 km, RH <90 %), and heavy haze (visibility, <5 km, RH <90 %). Significantly higher concentrations of PM 2.5 -bound PAHs were found in haze days, but the mean PM 2.5 -bound PAH concentrations obviously decreased with the aggravation of haze pollution from light to heavy. The gas/particle partitioning coefficients of PAHs decreased from light-haze to heavy-haze episodes, which indicated that PM 2.5 -bound PAHs were restricted to adhere to the particulate phase with the aggravation of haze pollution. Absorption was considered the main mechanism of gas/particle partitioning of PAHs from gaseous to particulate phase. Analysis of air mass transport indicated that the PM 2.5 -bound PAH pollution in haze days was largely from regional sources but also significantly affected by long-range air mass transport. The inhalation cancer risk associated with PAHs exceeded the acceptable risk level markedly in both haze and non-haze days.

Spatial and Seasonal Calcification in Corals and Calcareous Crusts in a Naturally Warm Coral Reef Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roik, A.; Roder, C.; Roethig, T.; Voolstra, C. R.

2016-02-01

The Red Sea harbors highly diverse and structurally complex coral reefs and is of interest for ocean warming studies. In the central and southern part, water temperatures rise above 30°C during summer, constituting one of the warmest coral reef environments worldwide. Additionally, seasonal variability of temperatures allows studying changes of environmental conditions and their effects on coral reef processes. To explore the influence of these warm and seasonally variable habitats on reef calcification, we measured in situ calcification of primary and secondary reef-builders in the central Red Sea. We collected calcification rates on the major habitat-forming coral genera Porites, Acropora, and Pocillopora, and also on calcareous crusts (CC). The study comprised forereef and backreef environments of three reefs along a cross-shelf gradient assessed over four seasons of the year. Calcification patterns of all coral genera were consistent across the shelf and highest in spring. In contrast to the corals, CC calcification strongly increased with distance from shore, but varied to a lesser extend over the seasons demonstrating lower calcification rates during spring and summer. Interestingly, reef calcification rates in the central Red Sea were on average in the range of data reported from the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific. For Acropora, annual average calcification rates were even at the lower end in comparison to studies from other locations. While coral calcification maxima typically have been observed during summer in many reef locations worldwide, we observed calcification maxima during spring in the central Red Sea indicating that summer temperatures may exceed the optima of reef calcifiers. Our study provides a baseline of calcification data for the region and serves as a foundation for comparative efforts to quantify the impact of future environmental change.

Comparison of regional and seasonal changes and trends in daily surface temperature extremes over India and its subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Regional changes in surface meteorological variables are one of the key issues affecting the Indian subcontinent especially in recent decades. These changes impact agriculture, health, water, etc., hence important to assess and investigate these changes. The Indian subcontinent is characterized by heterogeneous temperature regimes at regional and seasonal scales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations are limited to recent decades as far as its spatial distribution is concerned. In particular, over Hilly region, these observations are sporadic. Due to variable topography and heterogeneous land use/land cover, it is complex to substantiate impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis not only covers a larger spatial domain but also provides a greater number of inputs than IMD. This study used ERA-I in conjunction with IMD gridded data to provide a comparative assessment of changing temperature patterns over India and its subregions at both regional and seasonal scales. Warming patterns are observed in both ERA-I and IMD data sets. Cold nights decrease during winter; warm days increase and warm spell duration increased during winter could become a cause of concern for society, agriculture, socio-economic reasons, and health. Increasing warm days over the hilly regions may affect the corresponding snow cover and thus river hydrology and glaciological dynamics. Such changes during monsoon are slower, which could be attributed to moisture availability to dampen the temperature changes. On investigation and comparison thereon, the present study provisions usages of ERA-I-based indices for various impact and adaptation studies.

Models for estimating daily rainfall erosivity in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yun; Yin, Shui-qing; Liu, Bao-yuan; Nearing, Mark A.; Zhao, Ying

2016-04-01

The rainfall erosivity factor (R) represents the multiplication of rainfall energy and maximum 30 min intensity by event (EI30) and year. This rainfall erosivity index is widely used for empirical soil loss prediction. Its calculation, however, requires high temporal resolution rainfall data that are not readily available in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to parameterize models suitable for estimating erosivity from daily rainfall data, which are more widely available. One-minute resolution rainfall data recorded in sixteen stations over the eastern water erosion impacted regions of China were analyzed. The R-factor ranged from 781.9 to 8258.5 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1. A total of 5942 erosive events from one-minute resolution rainfall data of ten stations were used to parameterize three models, and 4949 erosive events from the other six stations were used for validation. A threshold of daily rainfall between days classified as erosive and non-erosive was suggested to be 9.7 mm based on these data. Two of the models (I and II) used power law functions that required only daily rainfall totals. Model I used different model coefficients in the cool season (Oct.-Apr.) and warm season (May-Sept.), and Model II was fitted with a sinusoidal curve of seasonal variation. Both Model I and Model II estimated the erosivity index for average annual, yearly, and half-month temporal scales reasonably well, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error MAPEsym ranging from 10.8% to 32.1%. Model II predicted slightly better than Model I. However, the prediction efficiency for the daily erosivity index was limited, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error being 68.0% (Model I) and 65.7% (Model II) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency being 0.55 (Model I) and 0.57 (Model II). Model III, which used the combination of daily rainfall amount and daily maximum 60-min rainfall, improved predictions significantly, and produced a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency

On the distributions of annual and seasonal daily rainfall extremes in central Arizona and their spatial variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mascaro, Giuseppe

2018-04-01

This study uses daily rainfall records of a dense network of 240 gauges in central Arizona to gain insights on (i) the variability of the seasonal distributions of rainfall extremes; (ii) how the seasonal distributions affect the shape of the annual distribution; and (iii) the presence of spatial patterns and orographic control for these distributions. For this aim, recent methodological advancements in peak-over-threshold analysis and application of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) were used to assess the suitability of the GPD hypothesis and improve the estimation of its parameters, while limiting the effect of short sample sizes. The distribution of daily rainfall extremes was found to be heavy-tailed (i.e., GPD shape parameter ξ > 0) during the summer season, dominated by convective monsoonal thunderstorms. The exponential distribution (a special case of GPD with ξ = 0) was instead showed to be appropriate for modeling wintertime daily rainfall extremes, mainly caused by cold fronts transported by westerly flow. The annual distribution exhibited a mixed behavior, with lighter upper tails than those found in summer. A hybrid model mixing the two seasonal distributions was demonstrated capable of reproducing the annual distribution. Organized spatial patterns, mainly controlled by elevation, were observed for the GPD scale parameter, while ξ did not show any clear control of location or orography. The quantiles returned by the GPD were found to be very similar to those provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14, which used the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Results of this work are useful to improve statistical modeling of daily rainfall extremes at high spatial resolution and provide diagnostic tools for assessing the ability of climate models to simulate extreme events.

Spatial-temporal variations in the thermal growing degree-days and season under climate warming in China during 1960-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yunhe; Deng, Haoyu; Wu, Shaohong

2017-10-01

Vegetation growth and phenology are largely regulated by base temperature (T b) and thermal accumulation. Hence, the growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS) calculated based on T b have primary effects on terrestrial ecosystems, and could be changed by the significant warming during the last century. By choosing 0, 5, and 10 °C, three key T b for vegetation growth, the GDD and GS in China during 1960-2011 were developed based on 536 meteorological stations with homogenized daily mean temperatures. Results show that both the GDD and GS showed positive sensitivity to the annual mean temperature. The start of the growing season (SOS) has advanced by 4.86-6.71 days, and the end of the growing season (EOS) has been delayed by 4.32-6.19 days, lengthening the GS by 10.76-11.02 days in China as a whole during 1960-2011, depending on the T b chosen. Consistently, the GDD has totally increased 218.92-339.40 °C days during the 52 years, with trends more pronounced in those based on a lower T b. The GDD increase was significant (Mann-Kendall test, p < 0.01) over China except for the north of Southwest China, while the significant GS extension only scattered over China. Whereas the extensions of GS0 and GS5 were dominated by the advance in SOS, the GS10 extension was closely linked to the delay in EOS. Regionally, the GS extension in the eastern monsoon zone and northwest arid/semi-arid zone was driven by the advance in SOS and delay in EOS, respectively. Moreover, each variation has a substantial acceleration mostly in 1987 or 1996, and a speed reduction or even a trend reversal in the early 2000s. Changes in the thermal growing degree-days and season are expected to have great implications for biological phenology, agricultural production, and terrestrial carbon cycle in the future.

Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

2016-01-01

Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)–despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species’ elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change. PMID:27447834

Warm season tree growth and precipitation over Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Therrell, Matthew D.; Stahle, David W.; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Villanueva-Diaz, Jose

2002-07-01

We have developed a network of 18 new tree ring chronologies to examine the history of warm season tree growth over Mexico from 1780 to 1992. The chronologies include Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) and Montezuma pine (Pinus montezumae Lamb.) latewood width, and Montezuma bald cypress (Taxodium mucronatum Ten.) total ring width. They are located in southwestern Texas, the Sierra Madre Oriental, Sierra Madre Occidental, and southern Mexico as far south as Oaxaca. Seven of these chronologies are among the first precipitation sensitive tree ring records from the American tropics. Principal component analysis of the chronologies indicates that the primary modes of tree growth variability are divided north and south by the Tropic of Cancer. The tree ring data in northern Mexico (PC1) are most sensitive to June-August rainfall, while the data from southern Mexico (PC2) are sensitive to rainfall in April-June. We find that the mode of tree growth variability over southern Mexico is significantly correlated with the onset of the North American Monsoon. Anomalies in monsoon onset, spring precipitation, and tree growth in southern Mexico all tend to be followed by precipitation anomalies of opposite sign later in the summer over most of central Mexico.

Atmospheric circulation types and daily mortality in Athens, Greece.

PubMed Central

Kassomenos, P; Gryparis, A; Samoli, E; Katsouyanni, K; Lykoudis, S; Flocas, H A

2001-01-01

We investigated the short-term effects of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric circulation types on mortality in Athens, Greece. The synoptic patterns in the lower troposphere were classified in 8 a priori defined categories. The mesoscale weather types were classified into 11 categories, using meteorologic parameters from the Athens area surface monitoring network; the daily number of deaths was available for 1987-1991. We applied generalized additive models (GAM), extending Poisson regression, using a LOESS smoother to control for the confounding effects of seasonal patterns. We adjusted for long-term trends, day of the week, ambient particle concentrations, and additional temperature effects. Both classifications, synoptic and mesoscale, explain the daily variation of mortality to a statistically significant degree. The highest daily mortality was observed on days characterized by southeasterly flow [increase 10%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 6.1-13.9% compared to the high-low pressure system), followed by zonal flow (5.8%; 95% CI, 1.8-10%). The high-low pressure system and the northwesterly flow are associated with the lowest mortality. The seasonal patterns are consistent with the annual pattern. For mesoscale categories, in the cold period the highest mortality is observed during days characterized by the easterly flow category (increase 9.4%; 95% CI, 1.0-18.5% compared to flow without the main component). In the warm period, the highest mortality occurs during the strong southerly flow category (8.5% increase; 95% CI, 2.0-15.4% compared again to flow without the main component). Adjusting for ambient particle levels leaves the estimated associations unchanged for the synoptic categories and slightly increases the effects of mesoscale categories. In conclusion, synoptic and mesoscale weather classification is a useful tool for studying the weather-health associations in a warm Mediterranean climate situation. PMID:11445513

Ozone and daily mortality rate in 21 cities of East Asia: how does season modify the association?

PubMed

Chen, Renjie; Cai, Jing; Meng, Xia; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Samoli, Evangelia; Yang, Xin; Kan, Haidong

2014-10-01

Previous studies in East Asia have revealed that the short-term associations between tropospheric ozone and daily mortality rate were strongest in winter, which is opposite to the findings in North America and Western Europe. Therefore, we investigated the season-varying association between ozone and daily mortality rate in 21 cities of East Asia from 1979 to 2010. Time-series Poisson regression models were used to analyze the association between ozone and daily nonaccidental mortality rate in each city, testing for different temperature lags. The best-fitting model was obtained after adjustment for temperature in the previous 2 weeks. Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to pool the city-specific estimates. An interquartile-range increase of the moving average concentrations of same-day and previous-day ozone was associated with an increase of 1.44% (95% posterior interval (PI): 1.08%, 1.80%) in daily total mortality rate after adjustment for temperature in the previous 2 weeks. The corresponding increases were 0.62% (95% PI: 0.08%, 1.16%) in winter, 1.46% (95% PI: 0.89%, 2.03%) in spring, 1.60% (95% PI: 1.03%, 2.17%) in summer, and 1.12% (95% PI: 0.73%, 1.51%) in fall. We found significant associations between short-term exposure to ozone and higher mortality rate in East Asia that varied considerably from season to season with a significant trough in winter. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Land-atmosphere coupling manifested in warm-season observations on the U.S. southern great plains

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Thomas J.; Klein, Stephen A.

2014-01-28

This study examines several observational aspects of land-atmosphere coupling on daily average time scales during warm seasons of the years 1997 to 2008 at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site near Lamont, Oklahoma. Characteristics of the local land-atmosphere coupling are inferred by analyzing the covariability of selected land and atmospheric variables that include precipitation and soil moisture, surface air temperature, relative humidity, radiant and turbulent fluxes, as well as low-level cloud base height and fractional coverage. For both the energetic and hydrological aspects of this coupling, it is found that large-scalemore » atmospheric forcings predominate, with local feedbacks of the land on the atmosphere being comparatively small much of the time. The weak land feedbacks are manifested by 1) the inability of soil moisture to comprehensively impact the coupled land-atmosphere energetics, and 2) the limited recycling of local surface moisture under conditions where most of the rainfall derives from convective cells that originate at remote locations. There is some evidence, nevertheless, of the local land feedback becoming stronger as the soil dries out in the aftermath of precipitation events, or on days when the local boundary-layer clouds are influenced by thermal updrafts known to be associated with convection originating at the surface. Finally, we also discuss potential implications of these results for climate-model representation of regional land-atmosphere coupling.« less

The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterkamp, T. E.

2005-12-01

This paper reports results of an experiment initiated in 1977 to determine the effects of climate on permafrost in Alaska. Permafrost observatories with boreholes were established along a north-south transect of Alaska in undisturbed permafrost terrain. The analysis and interpretation of annual temperature measurements in the boreholes and daily temperature measurements of the air, ground and permafrost surfaces made with automated temperature loggers are reported. Permafrost temperatures warmed along this transect coincident with a statewide warming of air temperatures that began in 1977. At two sites on the Arctic Coastal Plain, the warming was seasonal, greatest during "winter" months (October through May) and least during "summer" months (June through September). Permafrost temperatures peaked in the early 1980s and then decreased in response to slightly cooler air temperatures and thinner snow covers. Arctic sites began warming again typically about 1986 and Interior Alaska sites about 1988. Gulkana, the southernmost site, has been warming slowly since it was drilled in 1983. Air temperatures were relatively warm and snow covers were thicker-than-normal from the late 1980s into the late 1990s allowing permafrost temperatures to continue to warm. Temperatures at some sites leveled off or cooled slightly at the turn of the century. Two sites (Yukon River Bridge and Livengood) cooled during the period of observations. The magnitude of the total warming at the surface of the permafrost (through 2003) was 3 to 4 °C for the Arctic Coastal Plain, 1 to 2 °C for the Brooks Range including its northern and southern foothills, and 0.3 to 1 °C south of the Yukon River. While the data are sparse, permafrost is warming throughout the region north of the Brooks Range, southward along the transect from the Brooks Range to the Chugach Mountains (except for Yukon River and Livengood), in Interior Alaska throughout the Tanana River region, and in the region south of the

Seasonal, daily activity, and habitat use by three sympatric pit vipers (Serpentes, Viperidae) from southern Brazil.

PubMed

Rocha, Marcelo C; Hartmann, Paulo A; Winck, Gisele R; Cechin, Sonia Z

2014-04-25

Viperid snakes are widely distributed in the South America and the greater distribution range of the family is found at the Crotalinae subfamily. Despite the abundance of this snakes along their geographic distribution, some ecological aspects remain unknown, principally at subtropical areas. In the present study, we evaluated the activity (daily and seasonal) and the use of the habitat by Bothrops diporus, B. jararaca and B. jararacussu, in an Atlantic Forest area at southern Brazil. We observed higher incidence of viperid snakes during the months with higher temperatures, while no snakes were found during the months with lower temperatures. The data suggest the minimum temperature as environmental variable with the greatest influence on the seasonal activity of this species. Considering the daily activity, we observed a tendency of snakes to avoid the warmest hours. Bothrops jararacussu tend to avoid open areas, being registered only inside and at the edges of the forest. We compared our results with previous studies realized at tropical areas and we suggest the observed seasonal activity as an evolutive response, despite the influence of the different environmental variables, according to the occurence region.

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.

2017-11-01

Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought

A cicada that ensures its fitness during climate warming by synchronizing its hatching time with the rainy season.

PubMed

Moriyama, Minoru; Numata, Hideharu

2011-12-01

A shift in phenology due to climate change is associated with some recent changes in populations, as it can disrupt the synchrony between organisms' requirements and resource availability. This conceptual framework has been developed mostly in systems of trophic interactions. Many coincidental changes, however, are involved in trophic interactions, preventing us from describing the direct impact of phenological shifts on fitness consequences. Here we address the phenological relationship in a simple non-trophic interaction to document a causal process of a warming-driven fitness change in a cicada, Cryptotympana facialis, whose numbers increased dramatically in Osaka, Japan in the late 20th century. We show that synchrony of the rainy season and hatching time may have a substantial influence on hatching success, by 1) shifting the time of completion of embryonic development, and 2) supplying water at various intervals. We estimate the change in hatching time over the last eleven decades (1901-2009) based on meteorological records and the temperature-dependent rate of C. facialis embryogenesis. Our estimate shows that hatching had initially occurred after the rainy season, and that warming had advanced it into the rainy season in the late 20th century. The probability of hatching success was markedly variable, and often very low before this synchronization occurred, but became stably high thereafter. Our findings suggest that the stabilizing effect of this synchrony on fitness was indispensable to the recent population increase of C. facialis.

Curvularia malina sp. nov. incites a new disease of warm-season turfgrasses in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Tomaso-Peterson, Maria; Jo, Young-Ki; Vines, Phillip L; Hoffmann, Federico G

2016-09-01

A novel species of Curvularia was identified as a foliar pathogen of Cynodon dactylon (bermudagrass) and Zoysia matrella (zoysiagrass), two important warm-season turfgrasses in the southeastern United States. Field symptoms were conspicuous chocolate brown to black spots in turf of both species on golf course putting greens and fairways. Leaves of plants within these spots exhibited prominent, black eyespot lesions from which a darkly pigmented fungus was consistently isolated. The fungus produced gray- to black-olivaceous mycelium within 10 d on potato dextrose agar at 25 C but never produced conidia despite numerous attempts to induce them. Field symptoms were reproduced in inoculated plants of both grasses, and re-isolation of the pathogen from symptomatic tissues confirmed its pathogenicity in fulfillment of Koch's postulates. A phylogenetic analysis was performed using sequence markers of internal nuclear ribosomal transcribed spacer region (ITS), glyceralde-hyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GPD1) and translation elongation factor 1-α (TEF 1). The concatenated phylogenetic tree showed strong support for a new species within Curvularia that is distinctly divergent from other Curvularia spp. Therefore, the darkly pigmented pathogen of warm-season turfgrasses is described and illustrated as a new species, Curvularia malina. © 2016 by The Mycological Society of America.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

Assessment of the timing of daily peak streamflow during melt season in a snow dominated watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Previous studies have shown that gauge-observed daily streamflow peak times (DPT) during spring snowmelt can exhibit distinct temporal shifts through the season. These shifts have been attributed to three processes that affect the timing of snowmelt arrival: 1) melt flux translation through the snow...

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

Daily Air Temperature and Electricity Load in Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valor, Enric; Meneu, Vicente; Caselles, Vicente

2001-08-01

Weather has a significant impact on different sectors of the economy. One of the most sensitive is the electricity market, because power demand is linked to several weather variables, mainly the air temperature. This work analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily air temperature in Spain, using a population-weighted temperature index. The electricity demand shows a significant trend due to socioeconomic factors, in addition to daily and monthly seasonal effects that have been taken into account to isolate the weather influence on electricity load. The results indicate that the relationship is nonlinear, showing a `comfort interval' of ±3°C around 18°C and two saturation points beyond which the electricity load no longer increases. The analysis has also revealed that the sensitivity of electricity load to daily air temperature has increased along time, in a higher degree for summer than for winter, although the sensitivity in the cold season is always more significant than in the warm season. Two different temperature-derived variables that allow a better characterization of the observed relationship have been used: the heating and cooling degree-days. The regression of electricity data on them defines the heating and cooling demand functions, which show correlation coefficients of 0.79 and 0.87, and predicts electricity load with standard errors of estimate of ±4% and ±2%, respectively. The maximum elasticity of electricity demand is observed at 7 cooling degree-days and 9 heating degree-days, and the saturation points are reached at 11 cooling degree-days and 13 heating degree-days, respectively. These results are helpful in modeling electricity load behavior for predictive purposes.

Possible daily and seasonal variations in quantum interference induced by Chern-Simons gravity.

PubMed

Okawara, Hiroki; Yamada, Kei; Asada, Hideki

2012-12-07

Possible effects of Chern-Simons (CS) gravity on a quantum interferometer turn out to be dependent on the latitude and direction of the interferometer on Earth in orbital motion around the Sun. Daily and seasonal variations in phase shifts are predicted with an estimate of the size of the effects, wherefore neutron interferometry with ~5 m arm length and ~10(-4) phase measurement accuracy would place a bound on a CS parameter comparable to the Gravity Probe B satellite.

Plant phenological synchrony increases under rapid within-spring warming.

PubMed

Wang, Cong; Tang, Yanhong; Chen, Jin

2016-05-05

Phenological synchrony influences many ecological processes. Recent climate change has altered the synchrony of phenology, but little is known about the underlying mechanisms. Here using in situ phenological records from Europe, we found that the standard deviation (SD, as a measure of synchrony) of first leafing day (FLD) and the SD of first flowering day (FFD) among local plants were significantly smaller in the years and/or in the regions with a more rapid within-spring warming speed (WWS, the linear slope of the daily mean temperature against the days during spring, in (o)C/day) with correlation coefficients of -0.75 and -0.48 for FLD and -0.55 and -0.23 for FFD. We further found that the SDs of temperature sensitivity of local plants were smaller under the rapid WWS conditions with correlation coefficients of -0.46 and -0.33 for FLD and FFD respectively. This study provides the first evidence that the within-season rate of change of the temperature but not the magnitude determines plant phenological synchrony. It implies that temporally, the asymmetric seasonal climatic warming may decrease the synchrony via increasing WWS, especially in arctic regions; spatially, plants in coastal and low latitude areas with low WWS would have more diverse spring phenological traits.

Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and winter seasons over India (1969-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naresh; Jaswal, A. K.; Mohapatra, M.; Kore, P. A.

2017-08-01

Spatial and temporal variations in summer and winter extreme temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969-2012. For this purpose, time series for six extreme temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), extremely hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and extremely cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean extreme temperature indices of summer and winter seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of extreme temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in winter cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate warming in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and winter cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (-0.93, -0.47, and -0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of extreme temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for winter.

Seasonal patterns in soil N availability in the arctic tundra in response to accelerated snowmelt and warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Steltzer, H.; Sullivan, P.; Melle, C.; Segal, A.; Weintraub, M. N.

2010-12-01

Arctic soils contain large stocks of carbon (C) and may act as a significant CO2 source in response to climate warming. However, nitrogen (N) availability limits both plant growth and decomposition in many Arctic sites, and may thus be a key constraint on climate-carbon feedbacks. While current models of tundra ecosystems and their responses to climate change assume that N limits plant growth and C limits decomposition, there is strong evidence to the contrary showing that N can also limit decomposition. For example, the production of both new microbial biomass and enzymes that degrade organic matter appear to be limited by N during the summer. N availability is strongly seasonal: we have previously observed relatively high availability early in the growing season followed by a pronounced crash in tussock tundra soils. To investigate the drivers of N availability throughout the season, we used a field manipulation of tussock tundra growing season length (~4 days acceleration of snowmelt) and air temperature (open top chambers) and a laboratory soil N addition in both early and late season. Nutrient availability throughout the field season was measured at high temporal resolution (25 measurements from soil thaw through early plant senescence). Results from a laboratory experiment in which N was added to early season and late season soils suggests that soil respiration is in fact N limited at both times of the season, though this limitation is temperature dependent with effects most pronounced at 10°C. High-resolution measurements of nutrients in the soil solution and extractable N throughout the season showed that although a nutrient crash in N can be observed mid-season, N availability can still fluctuate later in the season. Finally, effects of the extended growing season and increased air temperature have so far had few effects on soil nutrient N dynamics throughout the summer growing season, suggesting either an insensitivity of N availability to these

Improving fire season definition by optimized temporal modelling of daily human-caused ignitions.

PubMed

Costafreda-Aumedes, S; Vega-Garcia, C; Comas, C

2018-07-01

Wildfire suppression management is usually based on fast control of all ignitions, especially in highly populated countries with pervasive values-at-risk. To minimize values-at-risk loss by improving response time of suppression resources it is necessary to anticipate ignitions, which are mainly caused by people. Previous studies have found that human-ignition patterns change spatially and temporally depending on socio-economic activities, hence, the deployment of suppression resources along the year should consider these patterns. However, full suppression capacity is operational only within legally established fire seasons, driven by past events and budgets, which limits response capacity and increases damages out of them. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal definition of fire seasons from the perspective of human-ignition patterns for the case study of Spain, where people cause over 95% of fires. Humans engage in activities that use fire as a tool in certain periods within a year, and in locations linked to specific spatial factors. Geographic variables (population, infrastructures, physiography and land uses) were used as explanatory variables for human-ignition patterns. The changing influence of these geographic variables on occurrence along the year was analysed with day-by-day logistic regression models. Daily models were built for all the municipal units in the two climatic regions in Spain (Atlantic and Mediterranean Spain) from 2002 to 2014, and similar models were grouped within continuous periods, designated as ignition-based seasons. We found three ignition-based seasons in the Mediterranean region and five in the Atlantic zones, not coincidental with calendar seasons, but with a high degree of agreement with current legally designated operational fire seasons. Our results suggest that an additional late-winter-early-spring fire season in the Mediterranean area and the extension of this same season in the Atlantic zone should be re

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Greater absolute rates of N2O production and consumption with soil warming dwarf variations in denitrification enzyme temperature sensitivities across seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiemann, L. K.; Billings, S. A.

2010-12-01

Investigators appreciate the important role that nitrate (NO3-) and soil moisture availability can play in governing net N2O production from soils. However, a large knowledge gap remains surrounding the drivers of soil N2O consumption and the role of microbial adaptation to changing environmental conditions in governing both N2O production and consumption. Net N2O soil efflux can be correlated with temperature, but little is known about the influence of temperature on gross rates of N2O production vs. consumption. Further, we do not understand how microbial communities responsible for these processes adapt or acclimate to soil warming. To investigate whether temperature alters the denitrifier-mediated fate of NO3- lost via N2O or N2, and if any such effect changes across seasons, we incubated soil collected in three seasons at four temperatures with and without 15N-enriched nitrate for 26 hours. Incubations were conducted in an anaerobic environment flushed with helium to permit detection of N2O and N2, and those gases’ δ15N. Temperature positively influenced CO2 production resulting from anaerobic processes. Maximum values of net N2O production were positively influenced by incubation and seasonal temperature, and the maximum rate of net N2O production occurred relatively early at warmer incubation temperatures. We also observed greater N2O:N2 ratios early in the incubations at warmer incubation temperatures. Isotope data are consistent with these trends. For those soils receiving the 15N label, differences in δ15N2O between early and late in the incubations were increasingly negative, and differences in δ15N2 increasingly positive, as temperature increased. Q10 values for N2O production and consumption exhibited increasing similarities as seasons progressed, with June N2O production and consumption Q10 values being nearly identical. These data provide convincing evidence that: a) increasing temperatures can induce denitrifying communities to perform complete

Daily and seasonal trends of electricity and water use on pasture-based automatic milking dairy farms.

PubMed

Shortall, J; O'Brien, B; Sleator, R D; Upton, J

2018-02-01

The objective of this study was to identify the major electricity and water-consuming components of a pasture-based automatic milking (AM) system and to establish the daily and seasonal consumption trends. Electricity and water meters were installed on 7 seasonal calving pasture-based AM farms across Ireland. Electricity-consuming processes and equipment that were metered for consumption included milk cooling components, air compressors, AM unit(s), auxiliary water heaters, water pumps, lights, sockets, automatic manure scrapers, and so on. On-farm direct water-consuming processes and equipment were metered and included AM unit(s), auxiliary water heaters, tubular coolers, wash-down water pumps, livestock drinking water supply, and miscellaneous water taps. Data were collected and analyzed for the 12-mo period of 2015. The average AM farm examined had 114 cows, milking with 1.85 robots, performing a total of 105 milkings/AM unit per day. Total electricity consumption and costs were 62.6 Wh/L of milk produced and 0.91 cents/L, respectively. Milking (vacuum and milk pumping, within-AM unit water heating) had the largest electrical consumption at 33%, followed by air compressing (26%), milk cooling (18%), auxiliary water heating (8%), water pumping (4%), and other electricity-consuming processes (11%). Electricity costs followed a similar trend to that of consumption, with the milking process and water pumping accounting for the highest and lowest cost, respectively. The pattern of daily electricity consumption was similar across the lactation periods, with peak consumption occurring at 0100, 0800, and between 1300 and 1600 h. The trends in seasonal electricity consumption followed the seasonal milk production curve. Total water consumption was 3.7 L of water/L of milk produced. Water consumption associated with the dairy herd at the milking shed represented 42% of total water consumed on the farm. Daily water consumption trends indicated consumption to be lowest in

A Digital Map From External Forcing to the Final Surface Warming Pattern and its Seasonal Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, M.

2015-12-01

Historically, only the thermodynamic processes (e.g., water vapor, cloud, surface albedo, and atmospheric lapse rate) that directly influence the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy flux balance are considered in climate feedback analysis. One of my recent research areas is to develop a new framework for climate feedback analysis that explicitly takes into consideration not only the thermodynamic processes that the directly influence the TOA radiative energy flux balance but also the local dynamical (e.g., evaporation, surface sensible heat flux, vertical convections etc) and non-local dynamical (large-scale horizontal energy transport) processes in aiming to explain the warming asymmetry between high and low latitudes, between ocean and land, and between the surface and atmosphere. In the last 5-6 years, we have developed a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedback and sensitivity in coupled general circulation models with a full physical parameterization package. In the CFRAM, the isolation of partial temperature changes due to an external forcing alone or an individual feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The CFRAM is used to isolate the partial temperature changes due to the external forcing, due to water vapor feedback, clouds, surface albedo, local vertical convection, and non-local atmospheric dynamical feedbacks, as well as oceanic heat storage. It has been shown that seasonal variations in the cloud feedback, surface albedo feedback, and ocean heat storage/dynamics feedback, directly caused by the strong annual cycle of insolation, contribute primarily to the large seasonal variation of polar warming. Furthermore, the

Cloud-to-ground lightning and surface rainfall in warm-season Florida thunderstorms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gungle, B.; Krider, E.P.

2006-01-01

Relationships between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and surface rainfall have been examined in nine isolated, warm-season thunderstorms on the east coast of central Florida. CG flashes and the associated rain volumes were measured as a function of time in storm-centered reference frames that followed each storm over a network of rain gauges. Values of the storm-average rain volume per CG flash ranged from 0.70 ?? 104 to 6.4 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, with a mean (and standard deviation) of 2.6 ?? 104 ?? 2.1 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. Values of the rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.11 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash with a mean of 2.1 ?? 104 ?? 2.0 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. The lag-time between the peak CG flash rate and the peak rainfall rate (using 5 min bins), and the results of a lag correlation analysis, show that surface rainfall tends to follow the lightning (positive lag) by up to 20 min in six storms. In one storm the rainfall preceded the lightning by 5 min, and two storms had nonsignificant lags. Values of the lagged rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.43 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, and the mean was 1.9 ?? 104 ?? 1.7 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. For the five storms that produced 12 or more flashes and had significant lags, a plot of the optimum lag time versus the total number of CG flashes shows a linear trend (R2 = 0.56). The number of storms is limited, but the lag results do indicate that large storms tend to have longer lags. A linear fit to the lagged rain volume vs. the number of concurrent CG flashes has a slope of 1.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash (R2 = 0.83). We conclude that warm-season Florida thunderstorms produce a roughly constant rain volume per CG flash and that CG lightning can be used to estimate the location and intensity of convective rainfall in that weather regime. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-07

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-20

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C.

2013-05-01

Arid and semi-arid regions are experiencing some of the most adverse impacts of climate change with increased heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather. These events will likely exacerbate socioeconomic and political instabilities in regions where the United States has vital strategic interests and ongoing military operations. The Southwest U.S. is strategically important in that it houses some of the most spatially expansive and important military installations in the country. The majority of severe weather events in the Southwest occur in association with the North American monsoon system (NAMS), and current observational record has shown a 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' global monsoon precipitation trend. We seek to evaluate the warm season extreme weather projection in the Southwest U.S., and how the extremes can affect Department of Defense (DoD) military facilities in that region. A baseline methodology is being developed to select extreme warm season weather events based on historical sounding data and moisture surge observations from Gulf of California. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-type high resolution simulations will be performed for the extreme events identified from Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations initiated from IPCC GCM and NCAR Reanalysis data in both climate control and climate change periods. The magnitude in extreme event changes will be analyzed, and the synoptic forcing patterns of the future severe thunderstorms will provide a guide line to assess if the military installations in the Southwest will become more or less susceptible to severe weather in the future.

Seasonal and Daily Activity Patterns of Mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) Vectors of Pathogens in Northeastern Italy.

PubMed

Montarsi, Fabrizio; Mazzon, Luca; Cazzin, Stefania; Ciocchetta, Silvia; Capelli, Gioia

2015-01-01

The seasonal and daily activity of mosquito vectors of pathogens affecting animals and humans were studied in northeastern Italy at a site within the Po River Delta Park. A CDC-CO2 trap and a gravid trap were operated at 2-h intervals for 24 h every 15 d from May to October 2010. Overall, 5,788 mosquitoes comprising six species were collected, namely Culex pipiens L. (75.1% of total), Aedes caspius (Pallas) (15.2%), Aedes vexans (Meigen) (6.9%), Anopheles maculipennis s.l. Meigen (2.6%), Culiseta annulata (Schrank) (0.2%), and Culex modestus Ficalbi (<0.1%). The relative abundance of these species increased from May until the beginning of July and then decreased, disappearing at the beginning of October. The diel host-seeking patterns and oviposition site-seeking patterns were species specific and were differentially affected by the ecological variables recorded at the day and hour of mosquito collection or two weeks before collection. Knowledge of the seasonal and daily host-seeking patterns of mosquitoes highlights the time periods of the day and the seasons of potential exposure for animals and humans to mosquito-borne pathogens, therefore delineating the best time for the application of preventive measures. Furthermore, knowledge of the oviposition site-seeking activity of the mosquitoes optimizes the capture of gravid females, thereby enhancing the likelihood of detecting pathogens. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Plant phenological responses to a long-term experimental extension of growing season and soil warming in the tussock tundra of Alaska.

PubMed

Khorsand Rosa, Roxaneh; Oberbauer, Steven F; Starr, Gregory; Parker La Puma, Inga; Pop, Eric; Ahlquist, Lorraine; Baldwin, Tracey

2015-12-01

Climate warming is strongly altering the timing of season initiation and season length in the Arctic. Phenological activities are among the most sensitive plant responses to climate change and have important effects at all levels within the ecosystem. We tested the effects of two experimental treatments, extended growing season via snow removal and extended growing season combined with soil warming, on plant phenology in tussock tundra in Alaska from 1995 through 2003. We specifically monitored the responses of eight species, representing four growth forms: (i) graminoids (Carex bigellowii and Eriophorum vaginatum); (ii) evergreen shrubs (Ledum palustre, Cassiope tetragona, and Vaccinium vitis-idaea); (iii) deciduous shrubs (Betula nana and Salix pulchra); and (iv) forbs (Polygonum bistorta). Our study answered three questions: (i) Do experimental treatments affect the timing of leaf bud break, flowering, and leaf senescence? (ii) Are responses to treatments species-specific and growth form-specific? and (iii) Which environmental factors best predict timing of phenophases? Treatment significantly affected the timing of all three phenophases, although the two experimental treatments did not differ from each other. While phenological events began earlier in the experimental plots relative to the controls, duration of phenophases did not increase. The evergreen shrub, Cassiope tetragona, did not respond to either experimental treatment. While the other species did respond to experimental treatments, the total active period for these species did not increase relative to the control. Air temperature was consistently the best predictor of phenology. Our results imply that some evergreen shrubs (i.e., C. tetragona) will not capitalize on earlier favorable growing conditions, putting them at a competitive disadvantage relative to phenotypically plastic deciduous shrubs. Our findings also suggest that an early onset of the growing season as a result of decreased snow cover

Using cloud and climate data to understand warm season hydrometeorology from diurnal to monthly timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, A. K.; Tawfik, A. B.; Desjardins, R. L.

2016-12-01

We use 600 station years of hourly data from 14 stations on the Canadian Prairies to map the warm season hydrometeorology. The months from April (after snowmelt) to September, have a very similar coupling between surface thermodynamics and opaque cloud cover, which has been calibrated to give cloud radiative forcing. We can derive both the mean diurnal ranges and the diurnal imbalances as a function of opaque cloud cover. For the monthly diurnal climate, we compute the coupling coefficients with opaque cloud cover and lagged precipitation. In April the diurnal cycle climate has memory of precipitation back to freeze-up in November. During the growing season months of June, July and August, there is memory of precipitation back to March. Monthly mean temperature depends strongly on cloud but little on precipitation, while monthly mean mixing ratio depends on precipitation, but rather little on cloud. The coupling coefficients to cloud and precipitation change with increasing monthly precipitation anomaly. This observational climate analysis provides a firm basis for model evaluation.

[Risk of deaths from cardiovascular diseases in Polish urban population associated with changes in maximal daily temperature].

PubMed

Rabczenko, Daniel; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Kuchcik, Magdalena; Seroka, Wojciech

2009-01-01

The paper presents results of analysis of short-term effect of changes in maximal daily temperature on daily mortality from cardiovascular diseases in warm season in years 1999-2006. Analysis was carried out in six large Polish cities--Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Warszawa and Wrocław. Generalized additive models were used in the analysis. Potential confounding factors--long term changes of mortality, day of week and other meteorological factors (atmospheric pressure, humidity, mean wind speed) were taken into account during model building process. Analysis was done for two age groups--0-69 and 70 years and older. Significant, positive association between daily maximal temperature and risk of death from cardiovascular diseases was found only in older age group.

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

Characterization of seasonal variation of forest canopy in a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, using daily MODIS data

Treesearch

Qingyuan Zhang; Xiangming Xiao; Bobby Braswell; Ernst Linder; Scott Ollinger; Marie-Louise Smith; Julian P. Jenkins; Fred Baret; Andrew D. Richardson; Berrien III Moore; Rakesh Minocha

2006-01-01

In this paper, we present an improved procedure for collecting no or little atmosphere- and snow-contaminated observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. The resultant time series of daily MODIS data of a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest (the Bartlett Experimental Forest) in 2004 show strong seasonal dynamics of surface...

Evaluating the applicability of using daily forecasts from seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) for agriculture: a case study of Nepal's Terai with the NCEP CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Prakash K.; Athanasiadis, Panos; Gualdi, Silvio; Trabucco, Antonio; Mereu, Valentina; Shelia, Vakhtang; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

2018-03-01

Ensemble forecasts from dynamic seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) have the potential to improve decision-making for crop management to help cope with interannual weather variability. Because the reliability of crop yield predictions based on seasonal weather forecasts depends on the quality of the forecasts, it is essential to evaluate forecasts prior to agricultural applications. This study analyses the potential of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) in predicting the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for producing meteorological variables relevant to crop modeling. The focus area was Nepal's Terai region, and the local hindcasts were compared with weather station and reanalysis data. The results showed that the CFSv2 model accurately predicts monthly anomalies of daily maximum and minimum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin) as well as incoming total surface solar radiation (Srad). However, the daily climatologies of the respective CFSv2 hindcasts exhibit significant systematic biases compared to weather station data. The CFSv2 is less capable of predicting monthly precipitation anomalies and simulating the respective intra-seasonal variability over the growing season. Nevertheless, the observed daily climatologies of precipitation fall within the ensemble spread of the respective daily climatologies of CFSv2 hindcasts. These limitations in the CFSv2 seasonal forecasts, primarily in precipitation, restrict the potential application for predicting the interannual variability of crop yield associated with weather variability. Despite these limitations, ensemble averaging of the simulated yield using all CFSv2 members after applying bias correction may lead to satisfactory yield predictions.

Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Charmian M.; Dear, Keith B. G.; McMichael, Anthony J.

2014-07-01

Studies in temperate countries have shown that both hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter increase short-term (daily) mortality. The gradual warming, decade on decade, that Australia has experienced since the 1960s, might therefore be expected to have differentially affected mortality in the two seasons, and thus indicate an early impact of climate change on human health. Failure to detect such a signal would challenge the widespread assumption that the effect of weather on mortality implies a similar effect of a change from the present to projected future climate. We examine the ratio of summer to winter deaths against a background of rising average annual temperatures over four decades: the ratio has increased from 0.71 to 0.86 since 1968. The same trend, albeit of varying strength, is evident in all states of Australia, in four age groups (aged 55 years and above) and in both sexes. Analysis of cause-specific mortality suggests that the change has so far been driven more by reduced winter mortality than by increased summer mortality. Furthermore, comparisons of this seasonal mortality ratio calculated in the warmest subsets of seasons in each decade, with that calculated in the coldest seasons, show that particularly warm annual conditions, which mimic the expected temperatures of future climate change, increase the likelihood of higher ratios (approaching 1:1). Overall, our results indicate that gradual climate change, as well as short-term weather variations, affect patterns of mortality.

Characteristics of Seasonal Variation and Solar Activity Dependence of the Geomagnetic Solar Quiet Daily Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinbori, Atsuki; Koyama, Yukinobu; Nosé, Masahito; Hori, Tomoaki; Otsuka, Yuichi

2017-10-01

Characteristics of seasonal variation and solar activity dependence of the X and Y components of the geomagnetic solar quiet (Sq) daily variation at Memambetsu in midlatitudes and Guam near the equator have been investigated using long-term geomagnetic field data with 1 h time resolution from 1957 to 2016. The monthly mean Sq variation in the X and Y components (Sq-X and Sq-Y) shows a clear seasonal variation and solar activity dependence. The amplitude of seasonal variation increases significantly during high solar activities and is proportional to the solar F10.7 index. The pattern of the seasonal variation is quite different between Sq-X and Sq-Y. The result of the correlation analysis between the solar F10.7 index and the Sq-X and Sq-Y shows an almost linear relationship, but the slope of the linear fitted line varies as a function of local time and month. This implies that the sensitivity of Sq-X and Sq-Y to the solar activity is different for different local times and seasons. The pattern of the local time and seasonal variations of Sq-Y at Guam shows good agreement with that of a magnetic field produced by interhemispheric field-aligned currents (FACs), which flow from the summer to winter hemispheres in the dawn and dusk sectors and from the winter to summer hemispheres in the prenoon to afternoon sectors. The direction of the interhemispheric FAC in the dusk sector is opposite to the concept of Fukushima's model.

Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil warming in the growing season than in winter: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.

PubMed

Tsyganov, Andrey N; Aerts, Rien; Nijs, Ivan; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Beyens, Louis

2012-05-01

Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming, winter snow addition solely and winter snow addition together with spring warming on testate amoeba assemblages after eight years of experimental field climate manipulations. All manipulations were accomplished using open top chambers in a dry blanket bog located in the sub-Arctic (Abisko, Sweden). We estimated sensitivity of abundance, diversity and assemblage structure of living and empty shell assemblages of testate amoebae in the living and decaying layers of Sphagnum. Our results show that, in a sub-arctic climate, testate amoebae are more sensitive to climate changes in the growing season than in winter. Summer warming reduced species richness and shifted assemblage composition towards predominance of xerophilous species for the living and empty shell assemblages in both layers. The higher soil temperatures during the growing season also decreased abundance of empty shells in both layers hinting at a possible increase in their decomposition rates. Thus, although possible effects of climate changes on preservation of empty shells should always be taken into account, species diversity and structure of testate amoeba assemblages in dry subarctic bogs are sensitive proxies for climatic changes during the growing season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Effects of Cold-Dry (Harmattan) and Hot-Dry Seasons on Daily Rhythms of Rectal and Body Surface Temperatures in Sheep and Goats in a Natural Tropical Environment

PubMed Central

Ayo, Joseph O.

2016-01-01

Studies on daily rhythmicity in livestock under natural conditions are limited, and there is mounting evidence that rhythm patterns differ between chronobiological studies conducted in the laboratory and studies conducted under pronounced natural seasonality. Here, we investigated the influence of cold-dry (harmattan) and hot-dry seasons on daily rhythmicity of rectal (RT) and body surface temperatures (BST) in indigenous sheep and goats under natural light-dark cycles. The RT and BST of the animals, and the ambient temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH) inside the pen, were measured every three hours for a period of two days, twice on separate days during the hot-dry and the harmattan seasons, respectively. The AT and RH had minimum values of 16°C and 15% recorded during the harmattan and maximum values of 32°C and 46% recorded during the hot-dry season, respectively. A trigonometric statistical model was applied to characterize the main rhythmic parameters according to the single cosinor procedure. The result showed that RT and BST exhibited different degrees of daily rhythmicity, and their oscillatory patterns differed with the seasons (larger amplitude during the harmattan season than during the hot-dry season). The goats displayed greater (p < 0.05) amplitude of BST than the sheep in all seasons. The acrophases were restricted to the light phase of the light-dark cycle. The mesor of RT in goats was not affected by the season, but mesors of BST in both species were significantly higher (p < 0.05) during the hot-dry than the harmattan season. The goats had a more robust RT rhythm (70%) as compared to the sheep (56%). Overall, the results demonstrated that seasonal changes influenced considerably the daily rhythmicity of RT and BST in sheep and goats under natural light-dark cycle. Awareness of these changes may be useful in the improvement of diagnosis, treatment and prevention of diseases, and welfare and productivity of sheep and goats under cold

Growing season temperature and precipitation variability and extremes in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1981 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, S.; Shulski, M.

2013-12-01

Climate warming and changes in rainfall patterns and increases in extreme events are resulting in higher risks of crop failures. A greater sense of urgency has been induced to understand the impacts of past climate on crop production in the U.S. As one of the most predominant sources of feed grains, corn is also the main source of U.S. ethanol. In the U.S. Corn Belt, region-scale evaluation on temperature and precipitation variability and extremes during the growing season is not well-documented yet. This study is part of the USDA-funded project 'Useful to Usable: Transforming climate variability and change information for cereal crop producers'. The overall goal of our work is to study the characteristics of average growing season conditions and changes in growing season temperature- and precipitation-based indices that are closely correlated with corn grain yield in the U.S. Corn Belt. The research area is the twelve major Corn Belt states, including IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, OH, SD, ND, and WI. Climate data during 1981-2010 from 132 meteorological stations (elevation ranges from 122 m to 1,202 m) are used in this study, including daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, and daily precipitation. From 1981 to 2012, beginning date (BD), ending date (ED), and growing season length (GSL) in the climatological corn growing season are studied. Especially, during the agronomic corn growing season, from Apr to Oct, temperature- and precipitation-based indices are analyzed. The temperature-based indices include: number of days with daily mean temperature below 10°C, number of days with daily mean temperature above 30°C, the sum of growing degree days (GDD) between 10°C to 30°C (GDD10,30, growth range for corn), the sum of growing degree days above 30°C (GDD30+, exposure to harmful warming for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 0°C and 44°C (GDD0,44, survival range limits for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 5°C and 35°C (GDD5

Seasonal Flows in Palikir Crater

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-05-15

Seasonal flows on warm Martian slopes may be caused by the flow of salty water on Mars, active today when the surface is warm above the freezing point of the solution. This observation is from NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yaojie; Zhang, Yangjian; Zhu, Juntao; Huang, Ke; Zu, Jiaxing; Chen, Ning; Cong, Nan; Stegehuis, Annemiek Irene

2018-03-01

As the recent global warming hiatus and the warming on high elevations are attracting worldwide attention, this study examined the robustness of the warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau (TP) and its related driving forces. By integrating multiple-source data from 1982 to 2015 and using trend analysis, we found that the mean temperature (T mean), maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (T min) showed a slowdown of the warming trend around 1998, during the period of the global warming hiatus. This was found over both the growing season (GS) and non-growing season (NGS) and suggested a robust warming hiatus over the TP. Due to the differences in trends of T max and T min, the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) also shifted after 1998, especially during the GS temperature. The warming rate was spatially heterogeneous. The northern TP (NTP) experienced more warming than the southern TP (STP) in all seasons from 1982 to 1998, while the pattern was reversed in the period from 1998 to 2015. Water vapour was found to be the main driving force for the trend in T mean and T min by influencing downward long wave radiation. Sunshine duration was the main driving force behind the trend in T max and DTR through a change in downward shortwave radiation that altered the energy source of daytime temperature. Water vapour was the major driving force for temperature change over the NTP, while over the STP, sunshine duration dominated the temperature trend.

Characteristics of seasonal variation and solar activity dependence of the geomagnetic solar quiet daily variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinbori, A.; Koyama, Y.; Nose, M.; Hori, T.

2017-12-01

Characteristics of seasonal variation and solar activity dependence of the X- and Y-components of the geomagnetic solar quiet (Sq) daily variation at Memanbetsu in mid-latitudes and Guam near the equator have been investigated using long-term geomagnetic field data with 1-h time resolution from 1957 to 2016. In this analysis, we defined the quiet day when the maximum value of the Kp index is less than 3 for that day. In this analysis, we used the monthly average of the adjusted daily F10.7 corresponding to geomagnetically quiet days. For identification of the monthly mean Sq variation in the X and Y components (Sq-X and Sq-Y), we first determined the baseline of the X and Y components from the average value from 22 to 2 h (LT: local time) for each quiet day. Next, we calculated a deviation from the baseline of the X- and Y-components of the geomagnetic field for each quiet day, and computed the monthly mean value of the deviation for each local time. As a result, Sq-X and Sq-Y shows a clear seasonal variation and solar activity dependence. The amplitude of seasonal variation increases significantly during high solar activities, and is proportional to the solar F10.7 index. The pattern of the seasonal variation is quite different between Sq-X and Sq-Y. The result of the correlation analysis between the solar F10.7 index and Sq-X and Sq-Y shows almost the linear relationship, but the slope and intercept of the linear fitted line varies as function of local time and month. This implies that the sensitivity of Sq-X and Sq-Y to the solar activity is different for different local times and seasons. The local time dependence of the offset value of Sq-Y at Guam and its seasonal variation suggest a magnetic field produced by inter-hemispheric field-aligned currents (FACs). From the sign of the offset value of Sq-Y, it is infer that the inter-hemispheric FACs flow from the summer to winter hemispheres in the dawn and dusk sectors and from the winter to summer hemispheres in

Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

2016-12-01

The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

Effects of seasonal change and experimental warming on the temperature dependence of photosynthesis in the canopy leaves of Quercus serrata.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Daisuke P; Nakaji, Tatsuro; Hiura, Tsutom; Hikosaka, Kouki

2016-10-01

The effects of warming on the temperature response of leaf photosynthesis have become an area of major concern in recent decades. Although growth temperature (GT) and day length (DL) affect leaf gas exchange characteristics, the way in which these factors influence the temperature dependence of photosynthesis remains uncertain. We established open-top canopy chambers at the canopy top of a deciduous forest, in which average daytime leaf temperature was increased by 1.0 °C. We conducted gas exchange measurements for the canopy leaves of deciduous trees exposed to artificial warming during different seasons. The carbon dioxide assimilation rate at 20 °C (A 20 ) was not affected by warming, whereas that at 25 °C (A 25 ) tended to be higher in leaves exposed to warming. Warming increased the optimal temperature of photosynthesis by increasing the activation energy for the maximum rate of carboxylation. Regression analysis indicated that both GT and DL strongly influenced gas exchange characteristics. Sensitivity analysis revealed that DL affected A without obvious effects on the temperature dependence of A, whereas GT almost maintained constant A 20 and strongly influenced the temperature dependence. These results indicate that GT and DL have different influences on photosynthesis; GT and DL affect the 'slope' and intercept' of the temperature dependence of photosynthesis, respectively. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

First cellular approach of the effects of global warming on groundwater organisms: a study of the HSP70 gene expression.

PubMed

Colson-Proch, Céline; Morales, Anne; Hervant, Frédéric; Konecny, Lara; Moulin, Colette; Douady, Christophe J

2010-05-01

Whereas the consequences of global warming at population or community levels are well documented, studies at the cellular level are still scarce. The study of the physiological or metabolic effects of such small increases in temperature (between +2 degrees C and +6 degrees C) is difficult because they are below the amplitude of the daily or seasonal thermal variations occurring in most environments. In contrast, subterranean biotopes are highly thermally buffered (+/-1 degrees C within a year), and underground water organisms could thus be particularly well suited to characterise cellular responses of global warming. To this purpose, we studied genes encoding chaperone proteins of the HSP70 family in amphipod crustaceans belonging to the ubiquitous subterranean genus Niphargus. An HSP70 sequence was identified in eight populations of two complexes of species of the Niphargus genus (Niphargus rhenorhodanensis and Niphargus virei complexes). Expression profiles were determined for one of these by reverse transcription and quantitative polymerase chain reaction, confirming the inducible nature of this gene. An increase in temperature of 2 degrees C seemed to be without effect on N. rhenorhodanensis physiology, whereas a heat shock of +6 degrees C represented an important thermal stress for these individuals. Thus, this study shows that although Niphargus individuals do not undergo any daily or seasonal thermal variations in underground water, they display an inducible HSP70 heat shock response. This controlled laboratory-based physiological experiment constitutes a first step towards field investigations of the cellular consequences of global warming on subterranean organisms.

Seasonal Patterns of Body Temperature Daily Rhythms in Group-Living Cape Ground Squirrels Xerus inauris

PubMed Central

Scantlebury, Michael; Danek-Gontard, Marine; Bateman, Philip W.; Bennett, Nigel C.; Manjerovic, Mary-Beth; Joubert, Kenneth E.; Waterman, Jane M.

2012-01-01

Organisms respond to cyclical environmental conditions by entraining their endogenous biological rhythms. Such physiological responses are expected to be substantial for species inhabiting arid environments which incur large variations in daily and seasonal ambient temperature (Ta). We measured core body temperature (Tb) daily rhythms of Cape ground squirrels Xerus inauris inhabiting an area of Kalahari grassland for six months from the Austral winter through to the summer. Squirrels inhabited two different areas: an exposed flood plain and a nearby wooded, shady area, and occurred in different social group sizes, defined by the number of individuals that shared a sleeping burrow. Of a suite of environmental variables measured, maximal daily Ta provided the greatest explanatory power for mean Tb whereas sunrise had greatest power for Tb acrophase. There were significant changes in mean Tb and Tb acrophase over time with mean Tb increasing and Tb acrophase becoming earlier as the season progressed. Squirrels also emerged from their burrows earlier and returned to them later over the measurement period. Greater increases in Tb, sometimes in excess of 5°C, were noted during the first hour post emergence, after which Tb remained relatively constant. This is consistent with observations that squirrels entered their burrows during the day to ‘offload’ heat. In addition, greater Tb amplitude values were noted in individuals inhabiting the flood plain compared with the woodland suggesting that squirrels dealt with increased environmental variability by attempting to reduce their Ta-Tb gradient. Finally, there were significant effects of age and group size on Tb with a lower and less variable Tb in younger individuals and those from larger group sizes. These data indicate that Cape ground squirrels have a labile Tb which is sensitive to a number of abiotic and biotic factors and which enables them to be active in a harsh and variable environment. PMID:22558324

Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R.; Rao, S. V. C. Kameswara; Dadhwal, V. K.

2017-10-01

Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969-2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season ( kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann-Kendall statistics ( α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test ( α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02-0.04 °C year-1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01-0.02 °C year-1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights.

A simple approach to estimate daily loads of total, refractory, and labile organic carbon from their seasonal loads in a watershed.

PubMed

Ouyang, Ying; Grace, Johnny M; Zipperer, Wayne C; Hatten, Jeff; Dewey, Janet

2018-05-22

Loads of naturally occurring total organic carbons (TOC), refractory organic carbon (ROC), and labile organic carbon (LOC) in streams control the availability of nutrients and the solubility and toxicity of contaminants and affect biological activities through absorption of light and complex metals with production of carcinogenic compounds. Although computer models have become increasingly popular in understanding and management of TOC, ROC, and LOC loads in streams, the usefulness of these models hinges on the availability of daily data for model calibration and validation. Unfortunately, these daily data are usually insufficient and/or unavailable for most watersheds due to a variety of reasons, such as budget and time constraints. A simple approach was developed here to calculate daily loads of TOC, ROC, and LOC in streams based on their seasonal loads. We concluded that the predictions from our approach adequately match field measurements based on statistical comparisons between model calculations and field measurements. Our approach demonstrates that an increase in stream discharge results in increased stream TOC, ROC, and LOC concentrations and loads, although high peak discharge did not necessarily result in high peaks of TOC, ROC, and LOC concentrations and loads. The approach developed herein is a useful tool to convert seasonal loads of TOC, ROC, and LOC into daily loads in the absence of measured daily load data.

Seasonal ozone levels and control by seasonal meteorology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pagnotti, V.

1990-02-01

Meteorological data, particularly 850-MB level temperatures, for Fort Totten, New York (1980) and Atlantic City, New Jersey (1981-1988) were examined for any relationship to seasonal ozone levels. Other radiosonde stations in the Northeast were utilized for 1983 and 1986, years of widely differing ozone levels. Statistics for selected parameters and years are presented. Emphasis is placed on recurring warm temperature regimes in high ozone years. Successive occurrences or episodes of high temperatures characterize seasonally high ozone years. Seasonally persistent high temperatures are related to seasonally chronic high ozone. An example is presented relating the broad-scale climatologically anomalous pattern of highmore » temperatures to anomalous circulation patterns at the 700-MB level.« less

Seasonal controls of the short term variability of pCO2 at the Scotian Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, H.; Craig, S.; Greenan, B. J. W.; Burt, W.; Herndl, G. J.; Higginson, S.; Salt, L.; Shadwick, E. H.; Urrego-Blanco, J.

2012-04-01

Much of the surface ocean carbon cycle variability can be attributed to the availability of sunlight, through processes such as heat fluxes or photosynthesis, which regulate the ocean carbon cycle over a wide range of time scales. The critical processes occurring on timescales of a day or less, however, have undergone few investigations, and most of those have been limited to a time span of several days to months, or exceptionally, for longer periods. Optical methods have helped to infer short-term biological variability, however lacking corresponding investigations of oceanic CO2 system. Here, we employ high-frequency CO2 system and optical observations covering the full seasonal cycle on the Scotian Shelf, Northwestern Atlantic Ocean, in order to unravel daily periodicity of the surface ocean carbon cycle and its effects on annual budgets. We show that significant daily periodicity occurs only if the water column is sufficiently stable as observed during seasonal warming. During that time biological CO2 drawdown, or net community production (NCP), is delayed for several hours relative to the daylight cycle due the daily build-up of essential Chlorophyll a, to cell physiology and to grazing effects, all restricting or hindering photosynthesis in the early morning hours. NCP collapses in summer by more than 90%, when the mixed layer depth reaches the seasonal minimum, which eventually makes the observed daily periodicity of the CO2 system vanish.

Plants regulate the effects of experimental warming on the soil microbial community in an alpine scrub ecosystem.

PubMed

Ma, Zhiliang; Zhao, Wenqiang; Zhao, Chunzhang; Wang, Dong; Liu, Mei; Li, Dandan; Liu, Qing

2018-01-01

Information on how soil microbial communities respond to warming is still scarce for alpine scrub ecosystems. We conducted a field experiment with two plant treatments (plant removal or undisturbed) subjected to warmed or unwarmed conditions to examine the effects of warming and plant removal on soil microbial community structures during the growing season in a Sibiraea angustata scrubland of the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The results indicate that experimental warming significantly influenced soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN), but the warming effects were dependent on the plant treatments and sampling seasons. In the plant-removal plots, warming did not affect most of the microbial variables, while in the undisturbed plots, warming significantly increased the abundances of actinomycete and Gram-positive bacterial groups during the mid-growing season (July), but it did not affect the fungi groups. Plant removal significantly reduced fungal abundance throughout the growing season and significantly altered the soil microbial community structure in July. The interaction between warming and plant removal significantly influenced the soil MBC and MBN and the abundances of total microbes, bacteria and actinomycete throughout the growing season. Experimental warming significantly reduced the abundance of rare taxa, while the interaction between warming and plant removal tended to have strong effects on the abundant taxa. These findings suggest that the responses of soil microbial communities to warming are regulated by plant communities. These results provide new insights into how soil microbial community structure responds to climatic warming in alpine scrub ecosystems.

Plants regulate the effects of experimental warming on the soil microbial community in an alpine scrub ecosystem

PubMed Central

Ma, Zhiliang; Zhao, Wenqiang; Zhao, Chunzhang; Wang, Dong; Liu, Mei; Li, Dandan

2018-01-01

Information on how soil microbial communities respond to warming is still scarce for alpine scrub ecosystems. We conducted a field experiment with two plant treatments (plant removal or undisturbed) subjected to warmed or unwarmed conditions to examine the effects of warming and plant removal on soil microbial community structures during the growing season in a Sibiraea angustata scrubland of the eastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. The results indicate that experimental warming significantly influenced soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN), but the warming effects were dependent on the plant treatments and sampling seasons. In the plant-removal plots, warming did not affect most of the microbial variables, while in the undisturbed plots, warming significantly increased the abundances of actinomycete and Gram-positive bacterial groups during the mid-growing season (July), but it did not affect the fungi groups. Plant removal significantly reduced fungal abundance throughout the growing season and significantly altered the soil microbial community structure in July. The interaction between warming and plant removal significantly influenced the soil MBC and MBN and the abundances of total microbes, bacteria and actinomycete throughout the growing season. Experimental warming significantly reduced the abundance of rare taxa, while the interaction between warming and plant removal tended to have strong effects on the abundant taxa. These findings suggest that the responses of soil microbial communities to warming are regulated by plant communities. These results provide new insights into how soil microbial community structure responds to climatic warming in alpine scrub ecosystems. PMID:29668711

Impacts of day versus night warming on soil microclimate: results from a semiarid temperate steppe.

PubMed

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Shiping; Wan, Shiqiang

2010-06-15

One feature of climate warming is that increases in daily minimum temperature are greater than those in daily maximum temperature. Changes in soil microclimate in response to the asymmetrically diurnal warming scenarios can help to explain responses of ecosystem processes. In the present study, we examined the impacts of day, night, and continuous warming on soil microclimate in a temperate steppe in northern China. Our results showed that day, night, and continuous warming (approximately 13Wm(-2) with constant power mode) significantly increased daily mean soil temperature at 10cm depth by 0.71, 0.78, and 1.71 degrees C, respectively. Night warming caused greater increases in nighttime mean and daily minimum soil temperatures (0.74 and 0.99 degrees C) than day warming did (0.60 and 0.66 degrees C). However, there were no differences in the increases in daytime mean and daily maximum soil temperature between day (0.81 and 1.13 degrees C) and night (0.81 and 1.10 degrees C) warming. The differential effects of day and night warming on soil temperature varied with environmental factors, including photosynthetic active radiation, vapor-pressure deficit, and wind speed. When compared with the effect of continuous warming on soil temperature, the summed effects of day and night warming were lower during daytime, but greater at night, thus leading to equality at daily scale. Mean volumetric soil moisture at the depth of 0-40cm significantly decreased under continuous warming in both 2006 (1.44 V/V%) and 2007 (0.76 V/V%). Day warming significantly reduced volumetric soil moisture only in 2006, whereas night warming had no effect on volumetric soil moisture in both 2006 and 2007. Given the different diurnal warming patterns and variability of environmental factors among ecosystems, these results highlight the importance of incorporating the differential impacts of day and night warming on soil microclimate into the predictions of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over centralmore » India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important

Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

DOE PAGES

Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; ...

2016-05-10

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over centralmore » India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important

Drivers of Intra-Summer Seasonality and Daily Variability of Coastal Low Cloudiness in California Subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, R. E.; Iacobellis, S.; Gershunov, A.; Williams, P.; Cayan, D. R.

2014-12-01

Summertime low cloud intrusion into the terrestrial west coast of North America impacts human, ecological, and logistical systems. Over a broad region of the West Coast, summer (May - September) coastal low cloudiness (CLC) varies coherently on interannual to interdecadal timescales and has been found to be organized by North Pacific sea surface temperature. Broad-scale studies of low stratiform cloudiness over ocean basins also find that the season of maximum low stratus corresponds to the season of maximum lower tropospheric stability (LTS) or estimated inversion strength. We utilize a 18-summer record of CLC derived from NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) at 4km resolution over California (CA) to make a more nuanced spatial and temporal examination of intra-summer variability in CLC and its drivers. We find that uniform spatial coherency over CA is not apparent for intra-summer variability in CLC. On monthly to daily timescales, at least two distinct subregions of coastal California (CA) can be identified, where relationships between meteorology and stratus variability appear to change throughout summer in each subregion. While north of Point Conception and offshore the timing of maximum CLC is closely coincident with maximum LTS, in the Southern CA Bight and northern Baja region, maximum CLC occurs up to about a month before maximum LTS. It appears that summertime CLC in this southern region is not as strongly related as in the northern region to LTS. In particular, although the relationship is strong in May and June, starting in July the daily relationship between LTS and CLC in the south begins to deteriorate. Preliminary results indicate a moderate association between decreased CLC in the south and increased precipitable water content above 850 hPa on daily time scales beginning in July. Relationships between daily CLC variability and meteorological variables including winds, inland temperatures, relative humidity, and

Fluctuations in daily energy intake do not cause physiological stress in a Neotropical primate living in a seasonal forest.

PubMed

Martínez-Mota, Rodolfo; Righini, Nicoletta; Palme, Rupert

2016-12-01

Animals may face periods of nutritional stress due to short-term food shortage and/or low energy consumption associated with seasonal fluctuations in resource availability. We tested the hypothesis that periods of restricted macronutrient and energy intake result in energy deficits and physiological stress in wild black howler monkeys (Alouatta pigra) inhabiting seasonal tropical semi-deciduous forests. We conducted full-day follows of focal animals recording feeding rates, time spent feeding, and total amount of food ingested. We carried out nutritional analysis of foods collected from feeding trees and calculated the daily nutrient and energy intake of each focal individual. Fecal glucocorticoid metabolites (fGCM) of focal animals were used as an indicator of physiological stress. We found that fluctuations in daily energy intake across seasons did not have significant effects on fGCM of individuals. However, protein intake was negatively associated with fGCM, highlighting the interplay among macronutrients, metabolism, and the endocrine system. Fecal glucocorticoid metabolites were also positively related to fruit availability, but this relationship was most likely due to social stress associated with intergroup encounters and resource defense that occurred when preferred trees were fruiting. Behavioral strategies such as dietary shifts and nutrient mixing, and metabolic adaptations such as low energy expenditure allowed individuals to fulfill their minimum energy requirements even during periods of decreased resource availability and intake. The present study suggests that seasonal variations in food, macronutrient, and energy acquisition may have limited physiological costs for animals that exploit different types of plant resources such as howler monkeys.

Patterns of parasite transmission in polar seas: Daily rhythms of cercarial emergence from intertidal snails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prokofiev, Vladimir V.; Galaktionov, Kirill V.; Levakin, Ivan A.

2016-07-01

Trematodes are common parasites in intertidal ecosystems. Cercariae, their dispersive larvae, ensure transmission of infection from the first intermediate molluscan host to the second intermediate (invertebrates and fishes) or the final (fishes, marine birds and mammals) host. Trematode transmission in polar seas, while interesting in many respects, is poorly studied. This study aimed to elucidate the patterns of cercarial emergence from intertidal snails at the White Sea and Barents Sea. The study, involving cercariae of 12 species, has provided the most extensive material obtained so far in high latitude seas (66-69° N). The experiments were conducted in situ. Multichannel singular spectral analysis (MSSA) used for processing primary data made it possible to estimate the relative contribution of different oscillations into the analysed time series and to separate the daily component from the other oscillatory components and the noise. Cercarial emergence had pronounced daily rhythms, which did not depend on the daily tidal schedule but were regulated by thermo- and photoperiod. Daily emergence maximums coincided with periods favourable for infecting the second intermediate hosts. Cercarial daily emergence rhythms differed in species using the same molluscan hosts which can be explained by cercarial host searching behaviour. Daily cercarial output (DCO) correlated negatively with larval volume and positively with that of the molluscan host except in cercariae using ambuscade behaviour. In the Barents Sea cercariae emerged from their molluscan hosts at lower temperatures than in the warmer White Sea but the daily emergence period was prolonged. Thus, DCO of related species were similar in these two seas and comparable with DCO values reported for boreal seas. Local temperature adaptations in cercarial emergence suggests that in case of Arctic climate warming trematode transmission in coastal ecosystems is likely to be intensified not because of the increased

The Historical Context of the 2017 Hurricane Season's Ocean Warmth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, P.; Akella, S.; Trenberth, K. E.; Lijing, C.; Abraham, J. P.

2017-12-01

Public discussion of the unusually active 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season quickly focused on the role of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic. Some meteorologists characterized them as near-normal, while climate-focused voices tended to characterize them as warmer than average, placing them in the context of anthropogenic warming. Much of this divergence in views can be explained by the relatively recent, relatively warm baseline (1981-2010) used for daily SST information, such as provided by OISSTv2. Longer term records of SSTs, such as HadISST, HadSST, and ERSST only attempt to provide monthly averages, while tropical cyclones have lifetimes on the timescale of days. Further, hurricanes create a cold wake which can impact storm movement and intensity, as well as subsequent storms, but is gradually wiped out by the sun. This process is further complicated by the role of ocean heat content (OHC), an increase in which can mitigate the impact of upwelled water. Here we examine the statistical characteristics of daily SSTs and OHC during the satellite record, including their temporal autocorrelation, and use this information in conjunction with longer term monthly records to bound what we can and cannot confidently say about the longer term historical context of the storms Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Ten-year variability in ecosystem water use efficiency in an oak-dominated temperate forest under a warming climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Jing; Chen, Jiquan; Sun, Ge

The impacts of extreme weather events on water-carbon (C) coupling and ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) over a long term are poorly understood. We analyzed the changes in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) from 10 years of eddy-covariance measurements (2004-2013) over an oak-dominated temperate forest in Ohio, USA. The aim was to investigate the long-term response of ecosystem WUE to measured changes in site-biophysical conditions and ecosystem attributes. The oak forest produced new plant biomass of 2.5 +/- 0.2 gC kg(-1) of water loss annually. Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were tightly coupled over the 10-year studymore » period (R-2=0.94). Daily WUE had a linear relationship with air temperature (T-a) in low-temperature months and a unimodal relationship with T-a in high-temperature months during the growing season. On average, daily WUE ceased to increase when T-a exceeded 22 degrees C in warm months for both wet and dry years. Monthly WUE had a strong positive linear relationship with leaf area index (LAI), net radiation (R-n), and T-a and weak logarithmic relationship with water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation (P) on a growing-season basis. When exploring the regulatory mechanisms on WUE within each season, spring LAI and P, summer R-n and T-a, and autumnal VPD and R-n were found to be the main explanatory variables for seasonal variation in WUE. The model developed in this study was able to capture 78% of growing-season variation in WUE on a monthly basis. The negative correlation between WUE and A in spring was mainly due to the high precipitation amounts in spring, decreasing GEP and WUE when LAI was still small, adding ET being observed to increase with high levels of evaporation as a result of high SWC in spring. Summer WUE had a significant decreasing trend across the 10 years mainly due to the combined effect of seasonal drought and increasing potential and available energy increasing

Ten-year variability in ecosystem water use efficiency in an oak-dominated temperate forest under a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Xie, Jing; Chen, Jiquan; Sun, Ge; ...

2016-01-07

The impacts of extreme weather events on water-carbon (C) coupling and ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) over a long term are poorly understood. We analyzed the changes in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) from 10 years of eddy-covariance measurements (2004-2013) over an oak-dominated temperate forest in Ohio, USA. The aim was to investigate the long-term response of ecosystem WUE to measured changes in site-biophysical conditions and ecosystem attributes. The oak forest produced new plant biomass of 2.5 +/- 0.2 gC kg(-1) of water loss annually. Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were tightly coupled over the 10-year studymore » period (R-2=0.94). Daily WUE had a linear relationship with air temperature (T-a) in low-temperature months and a unimodal relationship with T-a in high-temperature months during the growing season. On average, daily WUE ceased to increase when T-a exceeded 22 degrees C in warm months for both wet and dry years. Monthly WUE had a strong positive linear relationship with leaf area index (LAI), net radiation (R-n), and T-a and weak logarithmic relationship with water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation (P) on a growing-season basis. When exploring the regulatory mechanisms on WUE within each season, spring LAI and P, summer R-n and T-a, and autumnal VPD and R-n were found to be the main explanatory variables for seasonal variation in WUE. The model developed in this study was able to capture 78% of growing-season variation in WUE on a monthly basis. The negative correlation between WUE and A in spring was mainly due to the high precipitation amounts in spring, decreasing GEP and WUE when LAI was still small, adding ET being observed to increase with high levels of evaporation as a result of high SWC in spring. Summer WUE had a significant decreasing trend across the 10 years mainly due to the combined effect of seasonal drought and increasing potential and available energy increasing

Seasonal and ENSO Influences on the Stable Isotopic Composition of Galápagos Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, N. J.; Conroy, J. L.; Noone, D.; Cobb, K. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Rea, S.

2018-01-01

The origin of stable isotopic variability in precipitation over time and space is critical to the interpretation of stable isotope-based paleoclimate proxies. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, modern stable isotope measurements in precipitation (δ18Op and δDp) are sparse and largely unevaluated in the literature, although insights from such analyses would benefit the interpretations of several regional isotope-based paleoclimate records. Here we present a new 3.5 year record of daily-resolved δ18Op and δDp from Santa Cruz, Galápagos. With a prior 13 year record of monthly δ18Op and δDp from the island, these new data reveal controls on the stable isotopic composition of regional precipitation on event to interannual time scales. Overall, we find Galápagos δ18Op is significantly correlated with precipitation amount on daily and monthly time scales. The majority of Galápagos rain events are drizzle, or garúa, derived from local marine boundary layer vapor, with corresponding high δ18Op values due to the local source and increased evaporation and equilibration of smaller drops with boundary layer vapor. On monthly time scales, only precipitation in very strong, warm season El Niño months has substantially lower δ18Op values, as the sea surface temperature threshold for deep convection (28°C) is only surpassed at these times. The 2015/2016 El Niño event did not produce strong precipitation or δ18Op anomalies due to the short period of warm SST anomalies, which did not extend into the peak of the warm season. Eastern Pacific proxy isotope records may be biased toward periods of high rainfall during strong to very strong El Niño events.

A Congeneric Comparison Shows That Experimental Warming Enhances the Growth of Invasive Eupatorium adenophorum

PubMed Central

He, Wei-Ming; Li, Jing-Ji; Peng, Pei-Hao

2012-01-01

Rising air temperatures may change the risks of invasive plants; however, little is known about how different warming timings affect the growth and stress-tolerance of invasive plants. We conducted an experiment with an invasive plant Eupatorium adenophorum and a native congener Eupatorium chinense, and contrasted their mortality, plant height, total biomass, and biomass allocation in ambient, day-, night-, and daily-warming treatments. The mortality of plants was significantly higher in E. chinense than E. adenophorum in four temperature regimes. Eupatorium adenophorum grew larger than E. chinense in the ambient climate, and this difference was amplified with warming. On the basis of the net effects of warming, daily-warming exhibited the strongest influence on E. adenophorum, followed by day-warming and night-warming. There was a positive correlation between total biomass and root weight ratio in E. adenophorum, but not in E. chinense. These findings suggest that climate warming may enhance E. adenophorum invasions through increasing its growth and stress-tolerance, and that day-, night- and daily-warming may play different roles in this facilitation. PMID:22536425

Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Jiquan; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Luo, Yiqi; Wan, Shiqiang

2014-03-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30° and 90° N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research.

Seasonal nitrogen effects on nutritive value in binary mixtures of tall fescue and bermudagrass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Year-round forage production is feasible in much of the southeastern USA through utilization of cool- and warm-season forages. This study determined changes in herbage nutritive value in binary mixtures of cool-season, tall fescue [Schedonorus arundinaceus (Schreb.) Dumort], and warm-season, bermuda...

Seasonal patterns of body temperature daily rhythms in group-living Cape ground squirrels Xerus inauris.

PubMed

Scantlebury, Michael; Danek-Gontard, Marine; Bateman, Philip W; Bennett, Nigel C; Manjerovic, Mary Beth; Manjerovic, Mary-Beth; Joubert, Kenneth E; Waterman, Jane M

2012-01-01

Organisms respond to cyclical environmental conditions by entraining their endogenous biological rhythms. Such physiological responses are expected to be substantial for species inhabiting arid environments which incur large variations in daily and seasonal ambient temperature (T(a)). We measured core body temperature (T(b)) daily rhythms of Cape ground squirrels Xerus inauris inhabiting an area of Kalahari grassland for six months from the Austral winter through to the summer. Squirrels inhabited two different areas: an exposed flood plain and a nearby wooded, shady area, and occurred in different social group sizes, defined by the number of individuals that shared a sleeping burrow. Of a suite of environmental variables measured, maximal daily T(a) provided the greatest explanatory power for mean T(b) whereas sunrise had greatest power for T(b) acrophase. There were significant changes in mean T(b) and T(b) acrophase over time with mean T(b) increasing and T(b) acrophase becoming earlier as the season progressed. Squirrels also emerged from their burrows earlier and returned to them later over the measurement period. Greater increases in T(b), sometimes in excess of 5°C, were noted during the first hour post emergence, after which T(b) remained relatively constant. This is consistent with observations that squirrels entered their burrows during the day to 'offload' heat. In addition, greater T(b) amplitude values were noted in individuals inhabiting the flood plain compared with the woodland suggesting that squirrels dealt with increased environmental variability by attempting to reduce their T(a)-T(b) gradient. Finally, there were significant effects of age and group size on T(b) with a lower and less variable T(b) in younger individuals and those from larger group sizes. These data indicate that Cape ground squirrels have a labile T(b) which is sensitive to a number of abiotic and biotic factors and which enables them to be active in a harsh and variable

Seasonal skin darkening in Chinese women: the Shanghaiese experience of daily sun protection.

PubMed

Qiu, Huixia; Flament, Frederic; Long, Xiaohui; Wu, Jun; Xu, Mengzhi; Leger, Didier Saint; Meaudre, Helene; Senee, Jerome; Piot, Bertrand; Bazin, Roland

2013-01-01

The facial skin tone of two groups of Chinese women from Shanghai was compared using standard colorimetric space techniques during a 6-month interval between January and July 2011. During the study period, one group of women (n = 40) applied a potent sun-protective cosmetic product daily, while the other group (n = 40) did not use any sun protection. The results, based on images taken using a standardized digital camera coupled to a spectroradiometer, showed that sun protection largely mitigated changes in the components of skin tone, ie, lightness, melanization, and individual typology angle parameters. The skin darkening process appeared to be reduced or prevented in the sun-protected group when compared with the control group. The sun-protected women had participated in an earlier study in 2008, which confirmed that seasonal skin darkening occurs from winter through summer in Shanghaiese women. Comparing the data obtained in the winters of 2008 and 2011, we were able to identify better the impact of 3 years of aging on the components of skin tone. Comparing data between seasons on the same women with (2011 study) and without (2008 study) sun protection highlights the role of the test product in preventing skin darkening.

Effects of experimental warming and mowing on greenhouse gas fluxes in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jinsong; Quan, Quan; Sun, Jian; Niu, Shuli

2017-04-01

Rapid climate change and intensified human activities on the Tibetan Plateau may alter the magnitude and direction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, affecting the climate change impact on these fragile ecosystems. We conducted a controlled experiment to investigate the effects of warming and mowing (simulation of grazing) on soil CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in an alpine meadow in eastern Tibetan Plateau between August 2015 and July 2016. Three levels of temperature (C, ambient temperature; W1, < 2 °C warming at 5 cm soil depth by infrared heaters; and W2, > 2 °C warming) were combined with two levels of mowing treatment (UM, un-mowing; and M, mowing). GHG fluxes were measured once an hour using static chamber. Both CO2 emission and CH4 uptake rates showed a seasonal fluctuation, with the maximum value occurred in late summer and the minimum in winter. However, N2O flux did not show a strong seasonal pattern. High level of warming (W2) regardless of mowing significantly increased CO2 emission and CH4 uptake by 15.4 % and 38.2 % averaged over the year, compared with no-warming (C). Moderate warming (W1) did not have significant effects on either CO2 or CH4 fluxes. N2O flux was reduced by 54.1% by W2 and 15.7% by W1 warming. Mowing alone increased CH4 uptake and N2O emission by 18.0 % and 12.7%, respectively, but had no significant effect on CO2 flux. The interactions between warming and mowing were detected in CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Among all treatments, W2UM in general had the highest rates of CO2 emission and CH4 uptake but the lowest rate of N2O flux, while CUM and CM showed the opposite. In addition, warming induced increase in CH4 uptake and decline in N2O release had very limited ability to offset the enhanced CO2 emission, resulting in a net positive feedback of the three GHGs to climate warming. Furthermore, daily CO2 flux increased exponentially with soil temperature at 5 cm. CH4 flux correlated negatively with soil temperature but positively with soil moisture.

Size-Fractionated Particle Number Concentrations and Daily Mortality in a Chinese City

PubMed Central

Meng, Xia; Ma, Yanjun; Chen, Renjie; Zhou, Zhijun; Chen, Bingheng

2013-01-01

Background: Associations between airborne particles and health outcomes have been documented worldwide; however, there is limited information regarding health effects associated with different particle sizes. Objectives: We explored the association between size-fractionated particle number concentrations (PNCs) and daily mortality in Shenyang, China. Methods: We collected daily data on cause-specific mortality and PNCs for particles measuring 0.25–10 μm in diameter between 1 December 2006 and 30 November 2008. We used quasi-Poisson regression generalized additive models to estimate associations between PNCs and mortality, and we used natural spline smoothing functions to adjust for time-varying covariates and long-term and seasonal trends. Results: Mean numbers of daily deaths were 67, 32, and 7 for all natural causes, cardiovascular diseases, and respiratory diseases, respectively. Interquartile range (IQR) increases in PNCs for particles measuring 0.25–0.50 μm were significantly associated with total and cardiovascular mortality, but not respiratory mortality. Effect estimates were larger for PNCs during the warm season than the cool season, and increased with decreasing particle size. IQR increases in PNCs of 0.25–0.28 μm, 0.35–0.40 μm, and 0.45–0.50 μm particles were associated with 2.41% (95% CI: 1.23, 3.58%), 1.31% (95% CI: 0.52, 2.09%), and 0.45% (95% CI: 0.04, 0.87%) higher total mortality, respectively. Associations were generally stable after adjustment for mass concentrations of ambient particles and gaseous pollutants. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that particles < 0.5 μm in diameter may be most responsible for adverse health effects of particulate air pollution and that adverse health effects may increase with decreasing particle size. Citation: Meng X, Ma Y, Chen R, Zhou Z, Chen B, Kan H. 2013. Size-fractionated particle number concentrations and daily mortality in a Chinese city. Environ Health Perspect 121:1174–1178;�

Short-term effects of multiple ozone metrics on daily mortality in a megacity of China.

PubMed

Li, Tiantian; Yan, Meilin; Ma, Wenjun; Ban, Jie; Liu, Tao; Lin, Hualiang; Liu, Zhaorong

2015-06-01

Epidemiological studies have widely demonstrated association between ambient ozone and mortality, though controversy remains, and most of them only use a certain metric to assess ozone levels. However, in China, few studies have investigated the acute effects of ambient ozone, and rare studies have compared health effects of multiple daily metrics of ozone. The present analysis aimed to explore variability of estimated health effects by using multiple temporal ozone metrics. Six metrics of ozone, 1-h maximum, maximum 8-h average, 24-h average, daytime average, nighttime average, and commute average, were used in a time-series study to investigate acute mortality associated with ambient ozone pollution in Guangzhou, China, using 3 years of daily data (2006-2008). We used generalized linear models with Poisson regression incorporating natural spline functions to analyze the mortality, ozone, and covariate data. We also examined the association by season. Daily 1- and 8-h maximum, 24-h average, and daytime average concentrations yielded statistically significant associations with mortality. An interquartile range (IQR) of O3 metric increase of each ozone metric (lag 2) corresponds to 2.92 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.24 to 5.66), 3.60 % (95 % CI, 0.92 to 8.49), 3.03 % (95 % CI, 0.57 to 15.8), and 3.31 % (95 % CI, 0.69 to 10.4) increase in daily non-accidental mortality, respectively. Nighttime and commute metrics were weakly associated with increased mortality rate. The associations between ozone and mortality appeared to be more evident during cool season than in the warm season. Results were robust to adjustment for co-pollutants, weather, and time trend. In conclusion, these results indicated that ozone, as a widespread pollutant, adversely affects mortality in Guangzhou.

Mechanistic Lake Modeling to Understand and Predict Heterogeneous Responses to Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, J. S.; Winslow, L. A.; Rose, K. C.; Hansen, G. J.

2016-12-01

Substantial warming has been documented for of hundreds globally distributed lakes, with likely impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite a clear pattern of widespread warming, thermal responses of individual lakes to climate change are often heterogeneous, with the warming rates of neighboring lakes varying across depths and among seasons. We aggregated temperature observations and parameterized mechanistic models for 9,000 lakes in the U.S. states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan to examine broad-scale lake warming trends and among-lake diversity. Daily lake temperature profiles and ice-cover dynamics were simulated using the General Lake Model for the contemporary period (1979-2015) using drivers from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and for contemporary and future periods (1980-2100) using downscaled data from six global circulation models driven by the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. For the contemporary period, modeled vs observed summer mean surface temperatures had a root mean squared error of 0.98°C with modeled warming trends similar to observed trends. Future simulations under the extreme 8.5 scenario predicted a median lake summer surface warming rate of 0.57°C/decade until mid-century, with slower rates in the later half of the 21st century (0.35°C/decade). Modeling scenarios and analysis of field data suggest that the lake-specific properties of size, water clarity, and depth are strong controls on the sensitivity of lakes to climate change. For example, a simulated 1% annual decline in water clarity was sufficient to override the effects of climate warming on whole lake water temperatures in some - but not all - study lakes. Understanding heterogeneous lake responses to climate variability can help identify lake-specific features that influence resilience to climate change.

Free boundary models for mosquito range movement driven by climate warming.

PubMed

Bao, Wendi; Du, Yihong; Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

2018-03-01

As vectors, mosquitoes transmit numerous mosquito-borne diseases. Among the many factors affecting the distribution and density of mosquitoes, climate change and warming have been increasingly recognized as major ones. In this paper, we make use of three diffusive logistic models with free boundary in one space dimension to explore the impact of climate warming on the movement of mosquito range. First, a general model incorporating temperature change with location and time is introduced. In order to gain insights of the model, a simplified version of the model with the change of temperature depending only on location is analyzed theoretically, for which the dynamical behavior is completely determined and presented. The general model can be modified into a more realistic one of seasonal succession type, to take into account of the seasonal changes of mosquito movements during each year, where the general model applies only for the time period of the warm seasons of the year, and during the cold season, the mosquito range is fixed and the population is assumed to be in a hibernating status. For both the general model and the seasonal succession model, our numerical simulations indicate that the long-time dynamical behavior is qualitatively similar to the simplified model, and the effect of climate warming on the movement of mosquitoes can be easily captured. Moreover, our analysis reveals that hibernating enhances the chances of survival and successful spreading of the mosquitoes, but it slows down the spreading speed.

Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

PubMed

Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

2012-02-10

Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

Aerosol Indirect Effect on Warm Clouds over Eastern China Using Combined CALIOP and MODIS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jianping; Wang, Fu; Huang, Jingfeng; Li, Xiaowen

2015-04-01

Aerosol, one of key components of the climate system, is highly variable, both temporally and spatially. It often exerts great influences on the cloud-precipitation chain processes by serving as CCN/IN, altering cloud microphysics and its life cycle. Yet, the aerosol indirect effect on clouds remains largely unknown, because the initial changes in clouds due to aerosols may be enhanced or dampened by such feedback processes as modified cloud dynamics, or evaporation of the smaller droplets due to the competition for water vapor. In this study, we attempted to quantify the aerosol effects on warm cloud over eastern China, based on near-simultaneous retrievals from MODIS/AQUA, CALIOP/CALIPSO and CPR/CLOUDSAT during the period 2006 to 2010. The seasonality of aerosol from ground-based PM10 is quite different from that estimated from MODIS AOD. This result is corroborated by lower level profile of aerosol occurrence frequency from CALIOP, indicating the significant role CALIOP could play in aerosol-cloud interaction. The combined use of CALIOP and CPR facilitate the process to exactly determine the (vertical) position of warm cloud relative to aerosol, out of six scenarios in terms of aerosol-cloud mixing status in terms of aerosol-cloud mixing status, which shows as follows: AO (Aerosol only), CO (Cloud only), SASC (Single aerosol-single cloud), SADC (single aerosol-double cloud), DASC (double aerosol-single cloud), and others. Results shows that about 54% of all the cases belong to mixed status, among all the collocated aerosol-cloud cases. Under mixed condition, a boomerang shape is observed, i.e., reduced cloud droplet radius (CDR) is associated with increasing aerosol at moderate aerosol pollution (AOD<0.4), becoming saturated at AOD of 0.5, followed by an increase in CDR with aerosol. In contrast, there is no such boomerang shape found for (aerosol-cloud) separated cases. We categorize dataset into warm-season and cold-season subsets to figure out how the

Nutritive Value Response of Native Warm-Season Forage Grasses to Harvest Intervals and Durations in Mixed Stands

PubMed Central

Temu, Vitalis W.; Rude, Brian J.; Baldwin, Brian S.

2014-01-01

Interest in management of native warm-season grasses for multiple uses is growing in southeastern USA. Forage quality response of early-succession mixed stands of big bluestem (BB, Andropogon gerardii), indiangrass (IG, Sorghastrum nutans), and little bluestem (SG, Schizachyrium scoparium) to harvest intervals (30-, 40-, 60-, 90 or 120-d) and durations (one or two years) were assessed in crop-field buffers. Over three years, phased harvestings were initiated in May, on sets of randomized plots, ≥90 cm apart, in five replications (blocks) to produce one-, two-, and three-year-old stands, by the third year. Whole-plot regrowths were machine-harvested after collecting species (IG and LB) sample tillers for leafiness estimates. Species-specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf-to-stem ratio (LSR) were greater for early-season harvests and shorter intervals. In a similar pattern, whole-plot crude protein concentrations were greatest for the 30-d (74 g·kg−1 DM) and the least (40 g·kg−1 DM) for the 120-d interval. Corresponding neutral detergent fiber (NDF) values were the lowest (620 g·kg−1 DM) and highest (710 g·kg−1 DM), respectively. In vitro dry matter and NDF digestibility were greater for early-season harvests at shorter intervals (63 and 720 g·kg−1 DM). With strategic harvesting, similar stands may produce quality hay for beef cattle weight gain. PMID:27135504

Seasonal greenhouse gas emissions (methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide) from engineered landfills: Daily, intermediate, and final California cover soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We quantified the seasonal variability of CH4, CO2, and N2O emissions from fresh refuse and daily, intermediate, and final cover materials at two California landfills. Fresh refuse fluxes (g m-2 d-1) averaged CH4 0.053[+/-0.03], CO2 135[+/-117], and N2O 0.063[+/-0.059]. Average CH4 emissions across ...

Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

2017-12-01

Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Emergence of the significant local warming of Korea in CMIP5 projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo; Kim, Jee-Eun

2016-04-01

According to IPCC AR5, anthropogenic influence on warming is obvious in local scales, especially in some tropical regions. Detection of significant local warming is important for adaptation to climate change of society and ecosystem. Recently much attention has focused on the time of emergence (ToE) for the signal of anthropogenic climate change against the natural climate variability. Motivated from the previous studies, this study analyzes ToE of regional surface air temperature over Korea. Simulations of CMIP5 15 models are used for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. For each year, JJA and DJF temperature anomalies are calculated for the time period 1900-1929. For noise of interannual variability, natural-only historical simulations of CMIP5 12 models are used and the standard deviation of the time series is obtained. For signal of warming, we examine the year when the signal above 2 standard deviations is detected in 80% of the models using 30-year smoothed time series. According to our results, interannual variability is larger in land than ocean. Seasonally, it is larger in winter than in summer. Accordingly, ToE of summertime temperature is earlier than that in winter and is expected to appear in 2030s from three RCPs. The seasonal difference is consistent with previous studies. Wintertime ToE appears in 2040s for RCP85 and 2060s for RCP4.5. The different emergence time between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 reflects the influence of mitigation. In a similar way, daily maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed. ToE of Tmin appears earlier than that of Tmax and difference is small. Acknowledgements. This study is supported by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMR-2012-B-2).

The Role of Frozen Soil in Groundwater Discharge Predictions for Warming Alpine Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-03-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2-D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt-dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite-derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

The role of frozen soil in groundwater discharge predictions for warming alpine watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-01-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2‐D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt‐dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite‐derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

Seasonal below-ground metabolism in switchgrass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) a perennial, polyploid, C4 warm-season grass is one of the foremost herbaceous species being advanced as a source of biomass for biofuel end uses. At the end of every growing season, the aerial tissues senesce, and the below-ground rhizomes become dormant. Future growt...

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season QPF be Improved?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Darden, Chris; Dembek, Scott

2003-01-01

It is well known that numerical warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts lack significant skill for numerous reasons. Some are related to the model--it may lack physical processes required to realistically simulate convection or the numerical algorithms and dynamics employed may not be adequate. Others are related to initialization-mesoscale features play an important role in convective initialization and atmospheric observation systems are incapable of properly depicting the three-dimensional stability structure at the mesoscale. The purpose of this study is to determine if a mesoscale model initialized with a diabatic initialization scheme can improve short-term (0 to 12h) warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory is used to diabatically initialize the Pennsylvania State University/National center for Atmospheric Research (PSUNCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The SPORT Center runs LAPS operationally on an hourly cycle to produce analyses on a 15 km covering the eastern 2/3 of the United States. The 20 km National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Rapid Update Cycle analyses are used for the background fields. Standard observational data are acquired from MADIS with GOES/CRAFT Nexrad data acquired from in-house feeds. The MM5 is configured on a 140 x 140 12 km grid centered on Huntsville Alabama. Preliminary results indicate that MM5 runs initialized with LAPS produce improved 6 and 12h QPF threat scores compared with those initialized with the NCEP RUC.

A modelling study of the seasonal snowpack energy balance at three sites along the Andes Cordillera. Regional climate and local effects.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPhee, James; Mengual, Sebastian; MacDonell, Shelley

2017-04-01

Seasonal snowpack melt constitutes the main water source for large portions of extratropical South America, including central Chile and Western Argentina. The properties and distribution of snow in the Andes are threatened by rapid climate change, characterised by warming and drying. This study provides a first attempt at detailed description of the energy balance of the seasonal snowpack and its variability along a latitudinal gradient, which is also correlated with an elevation and precipitation gradient, in the Andes Cordillera. The Snowpack model was validated at semi-arid, Mediterranean and temperate humid sites, where meteorological and snowpack properties have been observed since year 2013. Site elevations decrease from north to south, whereas precipitation climatology increases with latitude. Results show that turbulent energy exchange becomes relatively more important in periods of low snow accumulation, with sensible heat fluxes having a greater effect in cooling the snowpack at the high-altitude, low latitude site. Likewise, daily melt-freeze cycles are important in maintaining positive cold contents throughout the accumulation season at this site, and contribute to extending the duration of snow cover despite low accumulation and high radiation loads. In contrast, the southernmost, lowest elevation site shows smaller daily temperature amplitude and a much more preponderant radiation component to the energy balance. This modelling exercise highlights the nonlinearities of snow dynamics at different geographical settings in a sparsely monitored mountain area of the world, as well as the need for further understanding in order to evaluate the sensitivity of snow-dominated watersheds to global warming and climate change.

Seasonal analysis of the short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in Northeast Asia.

PubMed

Kim, Satbyul Estella; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kan, Haidong; Lim, Youn-Hee; Lee, Hyewon; Kim, Clara Tammy; Yi, Seung-Muk; Kim, Ho

2017-01-15

The constituents and concentrations of pollutants, individual exposures, and biologic responses to air pollution may vary by season and meteorological conditions. However, evidence regarding seasonality of the acute effects of air pollution on mortality is limited and inconsistent. Herein, we examined seasonal patterns in the short-term associations of particulate matter (PM) smaller than 10μm (PM 10 ) with daily mortality in 29 cities of three northeast Asian countries. Stratified time-series models were used to determine whether season altered the effect of PM 10 on mortality. This effect was first quantified within each season and at each location using a time-series model, after which city-specific estimates were pooled using a hierarchical Bayesian model. In all data sets, 3,675,348 non-accidental deaths were registered from 1993 to 2009. In Japan, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03%, 0.8%) in spring and 0.42% (0.02%, 0.82%) in fall. In South Korea, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.51% (0.01%, 1.01%) in summer and 0.45% (0.03%, 0.87%) in fall, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.96% (0.29%, 1.63%) in fall, and in respiratory disease mortality of 1.57% (0.40%, 2.75%) in fall. In China, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.33% (0.01%, 0.66%) in summer and 0.41% (0.09%, 0.73%) in winter, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.41% (0.08%, 0.74%) in spring and 0.33% (0.02%, 0.64%) in winter, and in respiratory diseases mortality of 0.78% (0.27%, 1.30%) in winter. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary seasonally and geographically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated rice-duck farming mitigates the global warming potential in rice season.

PubMed

Xu, Guochun; Liu, Xin; Wang, Qiangsheng; Yu, Xichen; Hang, Yuhao

2017-01-01

Integrated rice-duck farming (IRDF), as a mode of ecological agriculture, is an important way to realize sustainable development of agriculture. A 2-year split-plot field experiment was performed to evaluate the effects of IRDF on methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and its ecological mechanism in rice season. This experiment was conducted with two rice farming systems (FS) of IRDF and conventional farming (CF) under four paddy-upland rotation systems (PUR): rice-fallow (RF), annual straw incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWS), annual straw-based biogas residues incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWB), and rice-green manure (RGM). During the rice growing seasons, IRDF decreased the CH 4 emission by 8.80-16.68%, while increased the N 2 O emission by 4.23-15.20%, when compared to CF. Given that CH 4 emission contributed to 85.83-96.22% of global warming potential (GWP), the strong reduction in CH 4 emission led to a significantly lower GWP of IRDF as compared to CF. The reason for this trend was because IRDF has significant effect on dissolved oxygen (DO) and soil redox potential (Eh), which were two pivotal factors for CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in this study. The IRDF not only mitigates the GWP, but also increases the rice yield by 0.76-2.43% compared to CF. Moreover, compared to RWS system, RF, RWB and RGM systems significantly reduced CH 4 emission by 50.17%, 44.89% and 39.51%, respectively, while increased N 2 O emission by 10.58%, 14.60% and 23.90%, respectively. And RWS system had the highest GWP. These findings suggest that mitigating GWP and improving rice yield could be simultaneously achieved by the IRDF, and employing suitable PUR would benefit for relieving greenhouse effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Changing Energy Sources of Soil Respiration Seasonally and with Experimental Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks Pries, C.; Angert, A.; Castanha, C.; Hilman, B.; Torn, M. S.

2017-12-01

Due to its importance in the global carbon cycle, soil respiration has been intensively measured. However, measurements are almost exclusively of CO2, which has limited our understanding of soil respiration's sources and its responses to climate change. Here, we show how dual CO2 and O2 measurements within the soil profile of a temperate forest can indicate how the energy sources driving soil respiration can change seasonally and with experimental warming. We calculated the apparent respiration quotient (ARQ), defined as CO2 produced/O2 consumed, calculated from gas soil concentrations and adjusted for differences in diffusion rates. The ARQ changes depending on the stoichiometry of the organic compounds utilized for energy by microbes and roots. Oxidation of carbohydrates and organic acids results in respiration quotients ≥1 while oxidation of lipids results in respiration quotients ≈0.7 with oxidation of proteins falling in between. We observed clear seasonal patterns in ARQ, with values ≈0.9 during the late spring and summer decreasing to 0.6-0.7 during the winter. These changes in ARQ imply carbohydrates are a more important energy source during the summer when trees are photosynthesizing and providing fresh substrate to both roots and microbes. During the winter, lipids, likely recycled within microbial biomass, are a more important energy source. Furthermore, winter ARQ was higher in heated plots (+4° relative to control) than in control plots, but only at 30 cm, possibly due to increased root activity with heating. These interpretations are supported by δ13CO2 values, which were relatively depleted in the winter and more enriched in the summer—lipids are more depleted in δ13C than are sugars. Consistent with the heating effect, there were strong correlations between temperature and ARQ and temperature and δ13C. Given the large differences in ARQ in this forest soil, we are looking into using ARQ to partition soil respiration fluxes based on

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Joe, III; Short, David; Roeder, William

2008-01-01

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of

Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-02-01

To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

Earlier snowmelt and warming lead to earlier but not necessarily more plant growth.

PubMed

Livensperger, Carolyn; Steltzer, Heidi; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony; Sullivan, Patrick F; Wallenstein, Matthew; Weintraub, Michael N

2016-01-01

Climate change over the past ∼50 years has resulted in earlier occurrence of plant life-cycle events for many species. Across temperate, boreal and polar latitudes, earlier seasonal warming is considered the key mechanism leading to earlier leaf expansion and growth. Yet, in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems, the timing of spring plant growth may also be cued by snowmelt, which may occur earlier in a warmer climate. Multiple environmental cues protect plants from growing too early, but to understand how climate change will alter the timing and magnitude of plant growth, experiments need to independently manipulate temperature and snowmelt. Here, we demonstrate that altered seasonality through experimental warming and earlier snowmelt led to earlier plant growth, but the aboveground production response varied among plant functional groups. Earlier snowmelt without warming led to early leaf emergence, but often slowed the rate of leaf expansion and had limited effects on aboveground production. Experimental warming alone had small and inconsistent effects on aboveground phenology, while the effect of the combined treatment resembled that of early snowmelt alone. Experimental warming led to greater aboveground production among the graminoids, limited changes among deciduous shrubs and decreased production in one of the dominant evergreen shrubs. As a result, we predict that early onset of the growing season may favour early growing plant species, even those that do not shift the timing of leaf expansion. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Quantifying the impact of daily and seasonal variation in sap pH on xylem dissolved inorganic carbon estimates in plum trees.

PubMed

Erda, F G; Bloemen, J; Steppe, K

2014-01-01

In studies on internal CO2 transport, average xylem sap pH (pH(x)) is one of the factors used for calculation of the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon in the xylem sap ([CO2 *]). Lack of detailed pH(x) measurements at high temporal resolution could be a potential source of error when evaluating [CO2*] dynamics. In this experiment, we performed continuous measurements of CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and stem temperature (T(stem)), complemented with pH(x) measurements at 30-min intervals during the day at various stages of the growing season (Day of the Year (DOY): 86 (late winter), 128 (mid-spring) and 155 (early summer)) on a plum tree (Prunus domestica L. cv. Reine Claude d'Oullins). We used the recorded pH(x) to calculate [CO2*] based on T(stem) and the corresponding measured [CO2]. No statistically significant difference was found between mean [CO2*] calculated with instantaneous pH(x) and daily average pH(x). However, using an average pH(x) value from a different part of the growing season than the measurements of [CO2] and T(stem) to estimate [CO2*] led to a statistically significant error. The error varied between 3.25 ± 0.01% under-estimation and 3.97 ± 0.01% over-estimation, relative to the true [CO2*] data. Measured pH(x) did not show a significant daily variation, unlike [CO2], which increased during the day and declined at night. As the growing season progressed, daily average [CO2] (3.4%, 5.3%, 7.4%) increased and average pH(x) (5.43, 5.29, 5.20) decreased. Increase in [CO2] will increase its solubility in xylem sap according to Henry's law, and the dissociation of [CO2*] will negatively affect pH(x). Our results are the first quantifying the error in [CO2*] due to the interaction between [CO2] and pH(x) on a seasonal time scale. We found significant changes in pH(x) across the growing season, but overall the effect on the calculation of [CO2*] remained within an error range of 4%. However, it is possible that the error could be more

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

[Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

PubMed

Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

2014-08-01

Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

Diurnal warming in shallow coastal seas: Observations from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Minnett, P. J.; Berkelmans, R.; Hendee, J.; Manfrino, C.

2014-07-01

A good understanding of diurnal warming in the upper ocean is important for the validation of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) against in-situ buoy data and for merging satellite SSTs taken at different times of the same day. For shallow coastal regions, better understanding of diurnal heating could also help improve monitoring and prediction of ecosystem health, such as coral reef bleaching. Compared to its open ocean counterpart which has been studied extensively and modeled with good success, coastal diurnal warming has complicating localized characteristics, including coastline geometry, bathymetry, water types, tidal and wave mixing. Our goal is to characterize coastal diurnal warming using two extensive in-situ temperature and weather datasets from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Results showed clear daily warming patterns in most stations from both datasets. For the three Caribbean stations where solar radiation is the main cause of daily warming, the mean diurnal warming amplitudes were about 0.4 K at depths of 4-7 m and 0.6-0.7 K at shallower depths of 1-2 m; the largest warming value was 2.1 K. For coral top temperatures of the GBR, 20% of days had warming amplitudes >1 K, with the largest >4 K. The bottom warming at shallower sites has higher daily maximum temperatures and lower daily minimum temperatures than deeper sites nearby. The averaged daily warming amplitudes were shown to be closely related to daily average wind speed and maximum insolation, as found in the open ocean. Diurnal heating also depends on local features including water depth, location on different sections of the reef (reef flat vs. reef slope), the relative distance from the barrier reef chain (coast vs. lagoon stations vs. inner barrier reef sites vs. outer rim sites); and the proximity to the tidal inlets. In addition, the influence of tides on daily temperature changes and its relative importance compared to solar radiation was quantified by

Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Baiquan; Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang; Yu, Rong

2018-03-01

Projected changes of the thermal growing season (TGS) over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels are investigated using 22 CMIP5 models under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The multi-model mean projections indicate Northern Eurasia will experience extended and intensified TGSs in a warmer world. The prolongation of TGSs under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming is attributed to both earlier onset and later termination, with the latter factor playing a dominating role. Interestingly, earlier onset is of greater importance under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 in prolonging TGS as the world warms by an additional 0.5 °C. Under both RCPs, growing degree day sum (GDD) above 5 °C is anticipated to increase by 0 °C-450 °C days and 0 °C-650 °C days over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming, respectively. However, effective GDD (EGDD) which accumulates optimum temperature for the growth of wheat, exhibits a decline in the south of Central Asia under warmer climates. Therefore, for wheat production over Northern Eurasia, adverse effects incurred by scorching temperatures and resultant inadequacy in water availability may counteract benefits from lengthening and warming TGS. In response to a future 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, proper management and scientifically-tailored adaptation are imperative to optimize local-regional agricultural production.

Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musselman, Keith N.; Molotch, Noah P.; Margulis, Steven A.

2017-12-01

In a warmer climate, the fraction of annual meltwater produced at high melt rates in mountainous areas is projected to decline due to a contraction of the snow-cover season, causing melt to occur earlier and under lower energy conditions. How snowmelt rates, including extreme events relevant to flood risk, may respond to a range of warming over a mountain front is poorly known. We present a model sensitivity study of snowmelt response to warming across a 3600 m elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, USA. A snow model was run for three distinct years and verified against extensive ground observations. To simulate the impact of climate warming on meltwater production, measured meteorological conditions were modified by +1 to +6 °C. The total annual snow water volume exhibited linear reductions (-10 % °C-1) consistent with previous studies. However, the sensitivity of snowmelt rates to successive degrees of warming varied nonlinearly with elevation. Middle elevations and years with more snowfall were prone to the largest reductions in snowmelt rates, with lesser changes simulated at higher elevations. Importantly, simulated warming causes extreme daily snowmelt (99th percentiles) to increase in spatial extent and intensity, and shift from spring to winter. The results offer insight into the sensitivity of mountain snow water resources and how the rate and timing of water availability may change in a warmer climate. The identification of future climate conditions that may increase extreme melt events is needed to address the climate resilience of regional flood control systems.

Short-Term Effect of Coarse Particles on Daily Mortality Rate in A Tropical City, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Shang-Shyue; Weng, Yi-Hao; Chiu, Ya-Wen; Yang, Chun-Yuh

2015-01-01

Many studies examined the short-term effects of air pollution on frequency of daily mortality over the past two decades. However, information on the relationship between exposure to levels of coarse particles (PM(2.5-10)) and daily mortality rate is relatively sparse due to limited availability of monitoring data and findings are inconsistent. This study was undertaken to determine whether an association exists between PM(2.5-10) levels and rate of daily mortality in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, a large industrial city with a tropical climate. Daily mortality rate, air pollution parameters, and weather data for Kaohsiung were obtained for the period 2006-2008. The relative risk (RR) of daily mortality occurrence was estimated using a time-stratified case-crossover approach, controlling for (1) weather variables, (2) day of the week, (3) seasonality, and (4) long-term time trends. For the single-pollutant model without adjustment for other pollutants, PM(2.5-10) exposure levels showed significant correlation with total mortality rate both on warm and cool days, with an interquartile range increase associated with a 14% (95% CI = 5-23%) and 12% (95% CI = 5-20%) rise in number of total deaths, respectively. In two-pollutant models, PM(2.5-10) exerted significant influence on total mortality frequency after inclusion of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) on warm days. On cool days, PM(2.5-10) induced significant elevation in total mortality rate when SO(2) or ozone (O(3)) was added in the regression model. There was no apparent indication of an association between PM(2.5-10) exposure and deaths attributed to respiratory and circulatory diseases. This study provided evidence of correlation between short-term exposure to PM(2.5-10) and increased risk of death for all causes.

Observing Seasonal and Diurnal Hydrometeorological Variability Within a Tropical Alpine Valley: Implications for Evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellstrom, R. A.; Mark, B. G.

2007-12-01

Conditions of glacier recession in the seasonally dry tropical Peruvian Andes motivate research to better constrain the hydrological balance in alpine valleys. There is an outstanding need to better understand the impact of the pronounced tropical hygric seasonality on energy and water budgets within pro-glacial valleys that channel glacier runoff to stream flow. This paper presents a novel embedded network installed in the glacierized Llanganuco valley of the Cordillera Blanca (9°S) comprising eight low-cost, discrete temperature and humidity microloggers ranging from 3470 to 4740 masl and an automatic weather station at 3850 masl. Data are aggregated into distinct dry and wet periods sampled from two full annual cycles (2004-2006) to explore patterns of diurnal and seasonal variability. The magnitude of diurnal solar radiation varies little within the valley between the dry and wet periods, while wet season near-surface air temperatures are cooler. Seasonally characteristic diurnal fluctuations in lapse rate partially regulate convection and humidity. Steep lapse rates during the wet season afternoon promote up-slope convection of warm, moist air and nocturnal rainfall events. Standardized grass reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was estimated using the FAO-56 algorithm of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and compared with estimates of actual ET from the process-based BROOK90 model that incorporates more realistic vegetation parameters. Comparisons of composite diurnal cycles of ET for the wet and dry periods suggest about twice the daily ET0 during the dry period, attributed primarily to the 500% higher vapor pressure deficit and 20% higher daily total solar irradiance. Conversely, the near absence of rainfall during the dry season diminishes actual ET below that of the wet season by two orders of magnitude. Nearly cloud-free daylight conditions are critical for ET during the wet season. We found significant variability of ET with elevation

Warming effects on permafrost ecosystem carbon fluxes associated with plant nutrients.

PubMed

Li, Fei; Peng, Yunfeng; Natali, Susan M; Chen, Kelong; Han, Tianfeng; Yang, Guibiao; Ding, Jinzhi; Zhang, Dianye; Wang, Guanqin; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jianchun; Liu, Futing; Yang, Yuanhe

2017-11-01

Large uncertainties exist in carbon (C)-climate feedback in permafrost regions, partly due to an insufficient understanding of warming effects on nutrient availabilities and their subsequent impacts on vegetation C sequestration. Although a warming climate may promote a substantial release of soil C to the atmosphere, a warming-induced increase in soil nutrient availability may enhance plant productivity, thus offsetting C loss from microbial respiration. Here, we present evidence that the positive temperature effect on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes may be weakened by reduced plant nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) concentrations in a Tibetan permafrost ecosystem. Although experimental warming initially enhanced ecosystem CO 2 uptake, the increased rate disappeared after the period of peak plant growth during the early growing season, even though soil moisture was not a limiting factor in this swamp meadow ecosystem. We observed that warming did not significantly affect soil extractable N or P during the period of peak growth, but decreased both N and P concentrations in the leaves of dominant plant species, likely caused by accelerated plant senescence in the warmed plots. The attenuated warming effect on CO 2 assimilation during the late growing season was associated with lowered leaf N and P concentrations. These findings suggest that warming-mediated nutrient changes may not always benefit ecosystem C uptake in permafrost regions, making our ability to predict the C balance in these warming-sensitive ecosystems more challenging than previously thought. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date in South Korea using Dynamical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, J. B.; Hur, J.

2015-12-01

The seasonal prediction of both the surface air temperature and the first-flowering date (FFD) over South Korea are produced using dynamical downscaling (Hur and Ahn, 2015). Dynamical downscaling is performed using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) v3.0 with the lateral forcing from hourly outputs of Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) v1.1. Gridded surface air temperature data with high spatial (3km) and temporal (daily) resolution are obtained using the physically-based dynamical models. To reduce systematic bias, simple statistical correction method is then applied to the model output. The FFDs of cherry, peach and pear in South Korea are predicted for the decade of 1999-2008 by applying the corrected daily temperature predictions to the phenological thermal-time model. The WRF v3.0 results reflect the detailed topographical effect, despite having cold and warm biases for warm and cold seasons, respectively. After applying the correction, the mean temperature for early spring (February to April) well represents the general pattern of observation, while preserving the advantages of dynamical downscaling. The FFD predictabilities for the three species of trees are evaluated in terms of qualitative, quantitative and categorical estimations. Although FFDs derived from the corrected WRF results well predict the spatial distribution and the variation of observation, the prediction performance has no statistical significance or appropriate predictability. The approach used in the study may be helpful in obtaining detailed and useful information about FFD and regional temperature by accounting for physically-based atmospheric dynamics, although the seasonal predictability of flowering phenology is not high enough. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of the Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development under Grant Project No. PJ009953 and

Experimental warming of a mountain tundra increases soil CO2 effluxes and enhances CH4 and N2O uptake at Changbai Mountain, China

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yumei; Hagedorn, Frank; Zhou, Chunliang; Jiang, Xiaojie; Wang, Xiuxiu; Li, Mai-He

2016-01-01

Climatic warming is expected to particularly alter greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils in cold ecosystems such as tundra. We used 1 m2 open-top chambers (OTCs) during three growing seasons to examine how warming (+0.8–1.2 °C) affects the fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) from alpine tundra soils. Results showed that OTC warming increased soil CO2 efflux by 141% in the first growing season and by 45% in the second and third growing season. The mean CH4 flux of the three growing seasons was −27.6 and −16.7 μg CH4-C m−2h−1 in the warmed and control treatment, respectively. Fluxes of N2O switched between net uptake and emission. Warming didn’t significantly affect N2O emission during the first and the second growing season, but stimulated N2O uptake in the third growing season. The global warming potential of GHG was clearly dominated by soil CO2 effluxes (>99%) and was increased by the OTC warming. In conclusion, soil temperature is the main controlling factor for soil respiration in this tundra. Climate warming will lead to higher soil CO2 emissions but also to an enhanced CH4 uptake with an overall increase of the global warming potential for tundra. PMID:26880107

Seasonal and cryopreservation impacts on semen quality in boars

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Seasonal boar infertility occurs worldwide and contributes to economic loss to the pork industry. The current study evaluated cooled vs cryopreserved semen quality of 11 Duroc boars collected in June (cool season) and August 2014 (warm season). Semen was cooled to 16°C (cooled) or frozen over liquid...

Warm season heavy rainfall events over the Huaihe River Valley and their linkage with wintertime thermal condition of the tropical oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Tang, Qiuhong; Zhang, Pengfei; Liu, Yimin

2016-01-01

Warm season heavy rainfall events over the Huaihe River Valley (HRV) of China are amongst the top causes of agriculture and economic loss in this region. Thus, there is a pressing need for accurate seasonal prediction of HRV heavy rainfall events. This study improves the seasonal prediction of HRV heavy rainfall by implementing a novel rainfall framework, which overcomes the limitation of traditional probability models and advances the statistical inference on HRV heavy rainfall events. The framework is built on a three-cluster Normal mixture model, whose distribution parameters are sampled using Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The three rainfall clusters reflect probability behaviors of light, moderate, and heavy rainfall, respectively. Our analysis indicates that heavy rainfall events make the largest contribution to the total amount of seasonal precipitation. Furthermore, the interannual variation of summer precipitation is attributable to the variation of heavy rainfall frequency over the HRV. The heavy rainfall frequency, in turn, is influenced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the north Indian Ocean, equatorial western Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic. The tropical SSTAs modulate the HRV heavy rainfall events by influencing atmospheric circulation favorable for the onset and maintenance of heavy rainfall events. Occurring 5 months prior to the summer season, these tropical SSTAs provide potential sources of prediction skill for heavy rainfall events over the HRV. Using these preceding SSTA signals, we show that the support vector machine algorithm can predict HRV heavy rainfall satisfactorily. The improved prediction skill has important implication for the nation's disaster early warning system.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

PubMed Central

Roberts, James J.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans. PMID:28683083

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change.

PubMed

Roberts, James J; Fausch, Kurt D; Schmidt, Travis S; Walters, David M

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Walters, David M.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

The phenology of Arctic Ocean surface warming.

PubMed

Steele, Michael; Dickinson, Suzanne

2016-09-01

In this work, we explore the seasonal relationships (i.e., the phenology) between sea ice retreat, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric heat fluxes in the Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean, using satellite and reanalysis data. We find that where ice retreats early in most years, maximum summertime SSTs are usually warmer, relative to areas with later retreat. For any particular year, we find that anomalously early ice retreat generally leads to anomalously warm SSTs. However, this relationship is weak in the Chukchi Sea, where ocean advection plays a large role. It is also weak where retreat in a particular year happens earlier than usual, but still relatively late in the season, primarily because atmospheric heat fluxes are weak at that time. This result helps to explain the very different ocean warming responses found in two recent years with extreme ice retreat, 2007 and 2012. We also find that the timing of ice retreat impacts the date of maximum SST, owing to a change in the ocean surface buoyancy and momentum forcing that occurs in early August that we term the Late Summer Transition (LST). After the LST, enhanced mixing of the upper ocean leads to cooling of the ocean surface even while atmospheric heat fluxes are still weakly downward. Our results indicate that in the near-term, earlier ice retreat is likely to cause enhanced ocean surface warming in much of the Arctic Ocean, although not where ice retreat still occurs late in the season.

Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems.

PubMed

Hicks Pries, Caitlin E; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Schuur, Edward A G; Natali, Susan M; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Aerts, Rien; Dorrepaal, Ellen

2015-12-01

Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (<5 years and over a decade). Despite the Abisko peatland having greater ecosystem respiration and larger contributions from heterotrophic respiration than the Healy tundra, both systems responded consistently to short- and long-term warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become

Climate Change of 4°C GlobalWarming above Pre-industrial Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaoxin; Jiang, Dabang; Lang, Xianmei

2018-07-01

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

Agricultural crops and soil treatment impacts on the daily and seasonal dynamics of CO2 fluxes in the field agroecosystems at the Central region of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazirov, Ilya; Vasenev, Ivan; Meshalkina, Joulia; Yaroslavtsev, Alexis; Berezovskiy, Egor; Djancharov, Turmusbek

2015-04-01

The problem of greenhouse gases' concentrations increasing becomes more and more important due to global changes issues. The main component of greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide. The researches focused on its fluxes in natural and anthropogenic modified landscapes can help in this problem solution. Our research has been done with support of the RF Government grants # 11.G34.31.0079 and # 14.120.14.4266 and of FP7 Grant # 603542 LUC4C in the representative for Central Region of Russia field agroecosystems at the Precision Farming Experimental Field of Russian Timiryazev State Agrarian University with cultivated sod podzoluvisols, barley and oats - vetch grass mix (Moscow station of the RusFluxNet). The daily and seasonal dynamics of the carbon dioxide have been studied at the ecosystem level by the Eddy covariance method (2 stations) and at the soil level by the exposition chamber method (40 chambers) with mobile infra red gas analyzer (Li-Cor 820). The primary Eddy covariance monitoring data on CO2 fluxes and water vapor have been processed by EddyPro software developed by LI-COR Biosciences. According to the two-year monitoring data the daily CO2 sink during the vegetation season is usually approximately two times higher than its emission at night. Seasonal CO2 fluxes comparative stabilization has been fixed in case the plants height around 10-12 cm and it usually persist until the wax ripeness phase. There is strong dependence between the soil CO2 emission and the air temperature with the correlation coefficient 0.86 in average (due to strong input of the soil thin top functional subhorizon), but it drops essentially at the end of the season - till 0.38. The soil moisture impact on CO2 fluxes dynamics was less, with negative correlation at the end of the season. High daily dynamics of CO2 fluxes determines the protocol requirements for seasonal soil monitoring investigation with less limitation at the end of the season. The accumulated monitoring data will be

Seasonal sea ice cover during the warm Pliocene: Evidence from the Iceland Sea (ODP Site 907)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clotten, Caroline; Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten; De Schepper, Stijn

2018-01-01

Sea ice is a critical component in the Arctic and global climate system, yet little is known about its extent and variability during past warm intervals, such as the Pliocene (5.33-2.58 Ma). Here, we present the first multi-proxy (IP25, sterols, alkenones, palynology) sea ice reconstructions for the Late Pliocene Iceland Sea (ODP Site 907). Our interpretation of a seasonal sea ice cover with occasional ice-free intervals between 3.50-3.00 Ma is supported by reconstructed alkenone-based summer sea surface temperatures. As evidenced from brassicasterol and dinosterol, primary productivity was low between 3.50 and 3.00 Ma and the site experienced generally oligotrophic conditions. The East Greenland Current (and East Icelandic Current) may have transported sea ice into the Iceland Sea and/or brought cooler and fresher waters favoring local sea ice formation. Between 3.00 and 2.40 Ma, the Iceland Sea is mainly sea ice-free, but seasonal sea ice occurred between 2.81 and 2.74 Ma. Sea ice extending into the Iceland Sea at this time may have acted as a positive feedback for the build-up of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), which underwent a major expansion ∼2.75 Ma. Thereafter, most likely a stable sea ice edge developed close to Greenland, possibly changing together with the expansion and retreat of the GIS and affecting the productivity in the Iceland Sea.

Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE): A new method for simulating future climate in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems.

PubMed

Templer, Pamela H; Reinmann, Andrew B; Sanders-DeMott, Rebecca; Sorensen, Patrick O; Juice, Stephanie M; Bowles, Francis; Sofen, Laura E; Harrison, Jamie L; Halm, Ian; Rustad, Lindsey; Martin, Mary E; Grant, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Climate models project an increase in mean annual air temperatures and a reduction in the depth and duration of winter snowpack for many mid and high latitude and high elevation seasonally snow-covered ecosystems over the next century. The combined effects of these changes in climate will lead to warmer soils in the growing season and increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in winter due to the loss of a continuous, insulating snowpack. Previous experiments have warmed soils or removed snow via shoveling or with shelters to mimic projected declines in the winter snowpack. To our knowledge, no experiment has examined the interactive effects of declining snowpack and increased frequency of soil FTCs, combined with soil warming in the snow-free season on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, none have mimicked directly the projected increase in soil FTC frequency in tall statured forests that is expected as a result of a loss of insulating snow in winter. We established the Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire in 2012 to assess the combined effects of these changes in climate on a variety of pedoclimate conditions, biogeochemical processes, and ecology of northern hardwood forests. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating soil FTC events in a tall statured ecosystem in winter to simulate the projected increase in soil FTC frequency over the next century and combines this projected change in winter climate with ecosystem warming throughout the snow-free season. Together, this experiment provides a new and more comprehensive approach for climate change experiments that can be adopted in other seasonally snow-covered ecosystems to simulate expected changes resulting from global air temperature rise.

Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE): A new method for simulating future climate in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems

PubMed Central

Templer, Pamela H.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Sanders-DeMott, Rebecca; Sorensen, Patrick O.; Juice, Stephanie M.; Bowles, Francis; Sofen, Laura E.; Harrison, Jamie L.; Halm, Ian; Rustad, Lindsey; Martin, Mary E.; Grant, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Climate models project an increase in mean annual air temperatures and a reduction in the depth and duration of winter snowpack for many mid and high latitude and high elevation seasonally snow-covered ecosystems over the next century. The combined effects of these changes in climate will lead to warmer soils in the growing season and increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in winter due to the loss of a continuous, insulating snowpack. Previous experiments have warmed soils or removed snow via shoveling or with shelters to mimic projected declines in the winter snowpack. To our knowledge, no experiment has examined the interactive effects of declining snowpack and increased frequency of soil FTCs, combined with soil warming in the snow-free season on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, none have mimicked directly the projected increase in soil FTC frequency in tall statured forests that is expected as a result of a loss of insulating snow in winter. We established the Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire in 2012 to assess the combined effects of these changes in climate on a variety of pedoclimate conditions, biogeochemical processes, and ecology of northern hardwood forests. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating soil FTC events in a tall statured ecosystem in winter to simulate the projected increase in soil FTC frequency over the next century and combines this projected change in winter climate with ecosystem warming throughout the snow-free season. Together, this experiment provides a new and more comprehensive approach for climate change experiments that can be adopted in other seasonally snow-covered ecosystems to simulate expected changes resulting from global air temperature rise. PMID:28207766

Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bintanja, R.

2012-04-01

Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

Ambient air pollution and daily hospital admissions for mental disorders in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Chen, Chen; Liu, Cong; Chen, Renjie; Wang, Weibing; Li, Weihua; Kan, Haidong; Fu, Chaowei

2018-02-01

Few studies have investigated the associations between ambient air pollution and mental disorders (MDs), especially in developing countries. We conducted a time-series study to explore the associations between six criteria air pollutants and daily hospital admissions for MDs in Shanghai, China, from 2013 to 2015. The MDs data were derived from the Shanghai Health Insurance System. We used over-dispersed, generalized additive models to estimate the associations after controlling for time trend, weather conditions, day of the week, and holidays. In addition, we evaluated the effect of modification by age, sex, and season. A total of 39,143 cases of hospital admissions for MDs were identified during the study period. A 10-μg/m 3 increase in 2-day, moving-average concentration of inhalable particulate matter, sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and carbon monoxide was significantly associated with increments of 1.27% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.28%, 2.26%], 6.88% (95% CI, 2.75%, 11.00%), and 0.16% (95% CI: 0.02%, 0.30%) in daily hospital admissions for MDs, respectively. We observed positive but insignificant associations of fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide and ozone. The estimated association of SO 2 was relatively robust to the adjustment of simultaneous exposure to other pollutants. We found generally stronger associations of air pollutants with MDs in warm seasons than in cool seasons. There were no significant differences in the associations between different sex and age groups. This study suggested that short-term exposure to air pollution, especially to sulfur dioxide, was associated with increased risk of hospital admissions for MDs in Shanghai, China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of climate change. V. Seasonal drought characteristics division and assessment in southern China].

PubMed

Huang, Wan-Hua; Sui, Yue; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Dai, Shu-Wei; Li, Mao-Song

2013-10-01

Zoning seasonal drought based on the study of drought characteristics can provide theoretical basis for formulating drought mitigation plans and improving disaster reduction technologies in different arid zones under global climate change. Based on the National standard of meteorological drought indices and agricultural drought indices and the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 268 meteorological stations in southern China, this paper analyzed the climatic background and distribution characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China, and made a three-level division of seasonal drought in this region by the methods of combining comprehensive factors and main factors, stepwise screening indices, comprehensive disaster analysis, and clustering analysis. The first-level division was with the annual aridity index and seasonal aridity index as the main indices and with the precipitation during entire year and main crop growing season as the auxiliary indices, dividing the southern China into four primary zones, including semi-arid zone, sub-humid zone, humid zone, and super-humid zone. On this basis, the four primary zones were subdivided into nine second-level zones, including one semi-arid area-temperate-cold semi-arid hilly area in Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau, three sub-humid areas of warm sub-humid area in the north of the Yangtze River, warm-tropical sub-humid area in South China, and temperate-cold sub-humid plateau area in Southwest China, three humid areas of temperate-tropical humid area in the Yangtze River Basin, warm-tropical humid area in South China, and warm humid hilly area in Southwest China, and two super-humid areas of warm-tropical super-humid area in South China and temperate-cold super-humid hilly area in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China. According to the frequency and intensity of multiple drought indices, the second-level zones were further divided into 29 third-level zones. The distribution of each seasonal drought zone was

Radon as a tracer of daily, seasonal and spatial air movements in the Underground Tourist Route "Coal Mine" (SW Poland).

PubMed

Tchorz-Trzeciakiewicz, Dagmara Eulalia; Parkitny, Tomasz

2015-11-01

The surveys of radon concentrations in the Underground Tourist Route "Coal Mine" were carried out using passive and active measurement techniques. Passive methods with application of Solid State Nuclear Track Detectors LR115 were used at 4 points in years 2004-2007 and at 21 points in year 2011. These detectors were exchanged at the beginning of every season in order to get information about seasonal and spatial changes of radon concentrations. The average radon concentration noted in this facility was 799 Bq m(-3) and is consistent with radon concentrations noted in Polish coal mines. Seasonal variations, observed in this underground tourist route, were as follows: the highest radon concentrations were noted during summers, the lowest during winters, during springs and autumns intermediate but higher in spring than in autumn. The main external factor that affected seasonal changes of radon concentrations was the seasonal variation of outside temperature. No correlation between seasonal variations of radon concentrations and seasonal average atmospheric pressures was found. Spatial variations of radon concentrations corresponded with air movements inside the Underground Tourist Route "Coal Mine". The most vivid air movements were noted along the main tunnel in adit and at the place located near no blinded (in the upper part) shaft. Daily variations of radon concentrations were recorded in May 2012 using RadStar RS-230 as the active measurement technique. Typical daily variations of radon concentrations followed the pattern that the highest radon concentrations were recorded from 8-9 a.m. to 7-8 p.m. and the lowest during nights. The main factor responsible for hourly variations of radon concentrations was the daily variation of outside temperatures. No correlations were found between radon concentration and other meteorological parameters such as atmospheric pressure, wind velocity or precipitation. Additionally, the influence of human factor on radon

Seasonal variations and source apportionment of atmospheric PM2.5-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a mixed multi-function area of Hangzhou, China.

PubMed

Lu, Hao; Wang, Shengsheng; Li, Yun; Gong, Hui; Han, Jingyi; Wu, Zuliang; Yao, Shuiliang; Zhang, Xuming; Tang, Xiujuan; Jiang, Boqiong

2017-07-01

To reveal the seasonal variations and sources of PM 2.5 -bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during haze and non-haze episodes, daily PM 2.5 samples were collected from March 2015 to February 2016 in a mixed multi-function area in Hangzhou, China. Ambient concentrations of 16 priority-controlled PAHs were determined. The sums of PM 2.5 -bound PAH concentrations during the haze episodes were 4.52 ± 3.32 and 13.6 ± 6.29 ng m -3 in warm and cold seasons, respectively, which were 1.99 and 1.49 times those during the non-haze episodes. Four PAH sources were identified using the positive matrix factorization model and conditional probability function, which were vehicular emissions (45%), heavy oil combustion (23%), coal and natural gas combustion (22%), and biomass combustion (10%). The four source concentrations of PAHs consistently showed higher levels in the cold season, compared with those in the warm season. Vehicular emissions were the most considerable sources that result in the increase of PM 2.5 -bound PAH levels during the haze episodes, and heavy oil combustion played an important role in the aggravation of haze pollution. The analysis of air mass back trajectories indicated that air mass transport had an influence on the PM 2.5 -bound PAH pollution, especially on the increased contributions from coal combustion and vehicular emissions in the cold season.

Bud break responds more strongly to daytime than night-time temperature under asymmetric experimental warming.

PubMed

Rossi, Sergio; Isabel, Nathalie

2017-01-01

Global warming is diurnally asymmetric, leading to a less cold, rather than warmer, climate. We investigated the effects of asymmetric experimental warming on plant phenology by testing the hypothesis that daytime warming is more effective in advancing bud break than night-time warming. Bud break was monitored daily in Picea mariana seedlings belonging to 20 provenances from Eastern Canada and subjected to daytime and night-time warming in growth chambers at temperatures varying between 8 and 16 °C. The higher advancements of bud break and shorter times required to complete the phenological phases occurred with daytime warming. Seedlings responded to night-time warming, but still with less advancement of bud break than under daytime warming. No advancement was observed when night-time warming was associated with a daytime cooling. The effect of the treatments was uniform across provenances. Our observations realized under controlled conditions allowed to experimentally demonstrate that bud break can advance under night-time warming, but to a lesser extent than under daytime warming. Prediction models using daily timescales could neglect the diverging influence of asymmetric warming and should be recalibrated for higher temporal resolutions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Soil Warming and Nitrogen Addition on Soil Respiration in a New Zealand Tussock Grassland

PubMed Central

Graham, Scott L.; Hunt, John E.; Millard, Peter; McSeveny, Tony; Tylianakis, Jason M.; Whitehead, David

2014-01-01

Soil respiration (R S) represents a large terrestrial source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Global change drivers such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition are expected to alter the terrestrial carbon cycle with likely consequences for R S and its components, autotrophic (R A) and heterotrophic respiration (R H). Here we investigate the impacts of a 3°C soil warming treatment and a 50 kg ha−1 y−1 nitrogen addition treatment on R S, R H and their respective seasonal temperature responses in an experimental tussock grassland. Average respiration in untreated soils was 0.96±0.09 μmol m−2 s−1 over the course of the experiment. Soil warming and nitrogen addition increased R S by 41% and 12% respectively. These treatment effects were additive under combined warming and nitrogen addition. Warming increased R H by 37% while nitrogen addition had no effect. Warming and nitrogen addition affected the seasonal temperature response of R S by increasing the basal rate of respiration (R 10) by 14% and 20% respectively. There was no significant interaction between treatments for R 10. The treatments had no impact on activation energy (E 0). The seasonal temperature response of R H was not affected by either warming or nitrogen addition. These results suggest that the additional CO2 emissions from New Zealand tussock grassland soils as a result of warming-enhanced R S constitute a potential positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. PMID:24621790

Five years of phenology observations from a mixed-grass prairie exposed to warming and elevated CO2.

PubMed

Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; LeCain, Daniel R; McMaster, Gregory S

2016-10-11

Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations have been steadily increasing since the Industrial Era and contribute to concurrent increases in global temperatures. Many observational studies suggest climate warming alone contributes to a longer growing season. To determine the relative effect of warming on plant phenology, we investigated the individual and joint effects of warming and CO 2 enrichment on a mixed-grass prairie plant community by following the development of six common grassland species and recording four major life history events. Our data support that, in a semi-arid system, while warming advances leaf emergence and flower production, it also expedites seed maturation and senescence at the species level. However, the additive effect can be an overall lengthening of the growing and reproductive seasons since CO 2 enrichment, particularly when combined with warming, contributed to a longer growing season by delaying plant maturation and senescence. Fostering synthesis across multiple phenology datasets and identifying key factors affecting plant phenology will be vital for understanding regional plant community responses to climate change.

Five years of phenology observations from a mixed-grass prairie exposed to warming and elevated CO2

PubMed Central

Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; LeCain, Daniel R.; McMaster, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been steadily increasing since the Industrial Era and contribute to concurrent increases in global temperatures. Many observational studies suggest climate warming alone contributes to a longer growing season. To determine the relative effect of warming on plant phenology, we investigated the individual and joint effects of warming and CO2 enrichment on a mixed-grass prairie plant community by following the development of six common grassland species and recording four major life history events. Our data support that, in a semi-arid system, while warming advances leaf emergence and flower production, it also expedites seed maturation and senescence at the species level. However, the additive effect can be an overall lengthening of the growing and reproductive seasons since CO2 enrichment, particularly when combined with warming, contributed to a longer growing season by delaying plant maturation and senescence. Fostering synthesis across multiple phenology datasets and identifying key factors affecting plant phenology will be vital for understanding regional plant community responses to climate change. PMID:27727235

Increased wintertime CO2 loss as a result of sustained tundra warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Elizabeth E.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Natali, Susan M.; Oken, Kiva L.; Bracho, Rosvel; Krapek, John P.; Risk, David; Nickerson, Nick R.

2016-02-01

Permafrost soils currently store approximately 1672 Pg of carbon (C), but as high latitudes warm, this temperature-protected C reservoir will become vulnerable to higher rates of decomposition. In recent decades, air temperatures in the high latitudes have warmed more than any other region globally, particularly during the winter. Over the coming century, the arctic winter is also expected to experience the most warming of any region or season, yet it is notably understudied. Here we present nonsummer season (NSS) CO2 flux data from the Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research project, an ecosystem warming experiment of moist acidic tussock tundra in interior Alaska. Our goals were to quantify the relationship between environmental variables and winter CO2 production, account for subnivean photosynthesis and late fall plant C uptake in our estimate of NSS CO2 exchange, constrain NSS CO2 loss estimates using multiple methods of measuring winter CO2 flux, and quantify the effect of winter soil warming on total NSS CO2 balance. We measured CO2 flux using four methods: two chamber techniques (the snow pit method and one where a chamber is left under the snow for the entire season), eddy covariance, and soda lime adsorption, and found that NSS CO2 loss varied up to fourfold, depending on the method used. CO2 production was dependent on soil temperature and day of season but atmospheric pressure and air temperature were also important in explaining CO2 diffusion out of the soil. Warming stimulated both ecosystem respiration and productivity during the NSS and increased overall CO2 loss during this period by 14% (this effect varied by year, ranging from 7 to 24%). When combined with the summertime CO2 fluxes from the same site, our results suggest that this subarctic tundra ecosystem is shifting away from its historical function as a C sink to a C source.

Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe.

PubMed

Crabbe, Richard A; Dash, Jadu; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F; Janous, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V

2016-09-01

Recent climate warming has shifted the timing of spring and autumn vegetation phenological events in the temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of Europe. In many areas spring phenological events start earlier and autumn events switch between earlier and later onset. Consequently, the length of growing season in mid and high latitudes of European forest is extended. However, the lagged effects (i.e. the impact of a warm spring or autumn on the subsequent phenological events) on vegetation phenology and productivity are less explored. In this study, we have (1) characterised extreme warm spring and extreme warm autumn events in Europe during 2003-2011, and (2) investigated if direct impact on forest phenology and productivity due to a specific warm event translated to a lagged effect in subsequent phenological events. We found that warmer events in spring occurred extensively in high latitude Europe producing a significant earlier onset of greening (OG) in broadleaf deciduous forest (BLDF) and mixed forest (MF). However, this earlier OG did not show any significant lagged effects on autumnal senescence. Needleleaf evergreen forest (NLEF), BLDF and MF showed a significantly delayed end of senescence (EOS) as a result of extreme warm autumn events; and in the following year's spring phenological events, OG started significantly earlier. Extreme warm spring events directly led to significant (p=0.0189) increases in the productivity of BLDF. In order to have a complete understanding of ecosystems response to warm temperature during key phenological events, particularly autumn events, the lagged effect on the next growing season should be considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, T.; Myneni, R.

2017-12-01

Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

Carbon balance of a subarctic meadow under 3 r{ C warming - unravelling respiration}

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvennoinen, Hanna; Bárcena, Téresa G.; Moni, Christophe; Szychowski, Marcin; Rajewicz, Paulina; Höglind, Mats; Rasse, Daniel P.

2016-04-01

Boreal and arctic terrestrial ecosystems are central to the climate change debate, as the warming is expected to be disproportionate as compared to world averages. Northern areas contain large terrestrial carbon (C) stocks further increasing the interest in the C cycle's fate in changing climate. In 2013, we started an ecosystem warming experiment at a meadow in Eastern Finnmark, NE Norway. The meadow was on a clay soil and its vegetation was common meadow grasses and clover. Typical local agronomy was applied. The study site featured ten 4m-wide hexagonal plots, five control and five actively warmed plots in randomized complete block design. Each of the warmed plots was continuously maintained 3 ° C above its associated control plot with infrared heaters controlled by canopy thermal sensors. In 2014-2015, we measured net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration twice per week during growth seasons from preinstalled collars of each site with dynamic, temperature-controlled chambers combined to an infrared analyzer. Despite warming-induced differences in yield, species composition and root biomass, neither the NEE nor the respiration responded to the warming, all sites remaining equal sinks for C. Following this observation, we carried out an additional experiment in 2015 where we aimed at partitioning the total CO2 flux to microbial and plant respiration as well as at recording the growth season variation of those parameters in situ. Here, we used an approach based on natural abundances of 13C. The δ13C signature of both autotrophic plant respiration and heterotrophic microbial respiration were obtained in targeted incubations (Snell et al. 2014). Then, the δ13C -signature of the total soil respiration was determined in the field by Keeling approach with dynamic dark chambers combined to CRDS. Proportions of autotrophic and heterotrophic components in total soil respiration were then derived based on 13C mixing model. Incubations were repeated at early, mid and

Intake, digestibility, and nitrogen retention by sheep supplemented with warm-season legume haylages or soybean meal.

PubMed

Foster, J L; Adesogan, A T; Carter, J N; Blount, A R; Myer, R O; Phatak, S C

2009-09-01

The high cost of commercial supplements necessitates evaluation of alternatives for ruminant livestock fed poor quality warm-season grasses. This study determined how supplementing bahiagrass haylage (Paspalum notatum Flügge cv. Tifton 9) with soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] meal or warm-season legume haylages affected the performance of lambs. Forty-two Dorper x Katadhin lambs (27.5 +/- 5 kg) were fed for ad libitum intake of bahiagrass haylage (67.8% NDF, 9.6% CP) alone (control) or supplemented with soybean meal (18.8% NDF, 51.4% CP) or haylages of annual peanut [Arachis hypogaea (L.) cv. Florida MDR98; 39.6% NDF, 18.7% CP], cowpea [Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp. cv. Iron clay; 44.1% NDF, 16.0% CP], perennial peanut (Arachis glabrata Benth. cv. Florigraze; 40.0% NDF, 15.8% CP), or pigeonpea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp. cv. GA-2; 65.0% NDF, 13.7% CP]. Haylages were harvested at the optimal maturity for maximizing yield and nutritive value, wilted to 45% DM, baled, wrapped in polyethylene plastic, and ensiled for 180 d. Legumes were fed at 50% of the dietary DM, and soybean meal was fed at 8% of the dietary DM to match the average CP concentration (12.8%) of legume haylage-supplemented diets. Lambs were fed each diet for a 14-d adaptation period and a 7-d data collection period. Each diet was fed to 7 lambs in period 1 and 4 lambs in period 2. Pigeonpea haylage supplementation decreased (P < 0.01) DM and OM intake and digestibility vs. controls. Other legume haylages increased (P < 0.05) DM and OM intake vs. controls; however, only soybean meal supplementation increased (P = 0.01) DM digestibility. All supplements decreased (P = 0.05) NDF digestibility. Except for pigeonpea haylage, all supplements increased (P < 0.01) N intake, digestibility, and retention, and the responses were greatest (P = 0.04) with soybean meal supplementation. Microbial N synthesis was reduced (P = 0.02) by pigeonpea haylage supplementation, but unaffected (P = 0.05) by other supplements

Arabian Oryx (Oryx leucoryx) Respond to Increased Ambient Temperatures with a Seasonal Shift in the Timing of Their Daily Inactivity Patterns.

PubMed

Davimes, Joshua G; Alagaili, Abdulaziz N; Gravett, Nadine; Bertelsen, Mads F; Mohammed, Osama B; Ismail, Khairy; Bennett, Nigel C; Manger, Paul R

2016-08-01

The Arabian oryx inhabits an environment where summer ambient temperatures can exceed 40 °C for extended periods of time. While the oryx uses a suite of adaptations that aid survival, the effects of this extreme environment on inactivity are unknown. To determine how the oryx manages inactivity seasonally, we measured the daily rhythm of body temperature and used fine-grain actigraphy, in 10 animals, to reveal when the animals were inactive in relation to ambient temperature and photoperiod. We demonstrate that during the cooler winter months, the oryx was inactive during the cooler parts of the 24-h day (predawn hours), showing a nighttime (nocturnal) inactivity pattern. In contrast, in the warmer summer months, the oryx displayed a bimodal inactivity pattern, with major inactivity bouts (those greater than 1 h) occurring equally during both the coolest part of the night (predawn hours) and the warmest part of the day (afternoon hours). Of note, the timing of the daily rhythm of body temperature did not vary seasonally, although the amplitude did change, leading to a seasonal alteration in the phase relationship between inactivity and the body temperature rhythm. Because during periods of inactivity the oryx were presumably asleep for much of the time, we speculate that the daytime shift in inactivity may allow the oryx to take advantage of the thermoregulatory physiology of sleep, which likely occurs when the animal is inactive for more than 1 h, to mitigate environmentally induced increases in body temperature. © 2016 The Author(s).

Autumn photosynthetic decline and growth cessation in seedlings of white spruce are decoupled under warming and photoperiod manipulations.

PubMed

Stinziano, Joseph R; Way, Danielle A

2017-08-01

Climate warming is expected to increase the seasonal duration of photosynthetic carbon fixation and tree growth in high-latitude forests. However, photoperiod, a crucial cue for seasonality, will remain constant, which may constrain tree responses to warming. We investigated the effects of temperature and photoperiod on weekly changes in photosynthetic capacity, leaf biochemistry and growth in seedlings of a boreal evergreen conifer, white spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss]. Warming delayed autumn declines in photosynthetic capacity, extending the period when seedlings had high carbon uptake. While photoperiod was correlated with photosynthetic capacity, short photoperiods did not constrain the maintenance of high photosynthetic capacity under warming. Rubisco concentration dynamics were affected by temperature but not photoperiod, while leaf pigment concentrations were unaffected by treatments. Respiration rates at 25 °C were stimulated by photoperiod, although respiration at the growth temperatures was increased in warming treatments. Seedling growth was stimulated by increased photoperiod and suppressed by warming. We demonstrate that temperature is a stronger control on the seasonal timing of photosynthetic down-regulation than is photoperiod. Thus, while warming can stimulate carbon uptake in boreal conifers, the extra carbon may be directed towards respiration rather than biomass, potentially limiting carbon sequestration under climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

2007-01-01

options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

Associations between ozone, PM2.5, and four pollen types on emergency department pediatric asthma events during the warm season in New Jersey: a case-crossover study.

PubMed

Gleason, Jessie A; Bielory, Leonard; Fagliano, Jerald A

2014-07-01

Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases among school-aged children in the United States. Environmental respiratory irritants exacerbate asthma among children. Understanding the impact of a variety of known and biologically plausible environmental irritants and triggers among children in New Jersey - ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), tree pollen, weed pollen, grass pollen and ragweed - would allow for informed public health interventions. Time-stratified case-crossover design was used to study the transient impact of ozone, PM2.5 and pollen on the acute onset of pediatric asthma. Daily emergency department visits were obtained for children aged 3-17 years with a primary diagnosis of asthma during the warm season (April through September), 2004-2007 (inclusive). Bi-directional control sampling was used to select two control periods for each case for a total of 65,562 inclusion days. Since the period of exposure prior to emergency department visit may be the most clinically relevant, lag exposures were investigated (same day (lag0), 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 as well as 3-day and 5-day moving averages). Multivariable conditional logistic regression controlling for holiday, school-in-session indicator, and 3-day moving average for temperature and relative humidity was used to examine the associations. Odds ratios are based on interquartile range (IQR) increases or 10 unit increases when IQR ranges were narrow. Single-pollutant models as well as multipollutant models were examined. Stratification on gender, race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status was explored. The associations with ozone and PM2.5 were strongest on the same day (lag0) of the emergency department visit (RR IQR=1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.06) and (RR IQR=1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04), respectively, with a decreasing lag effect. Tree and weed pollen were associated with pediatric ED visits; the largest magnitudes of association was with the 5-day average (RR IQR=1.23, 95% CI 1.21-1.25) and (RR 10=1.13, 95% CI 1

Environmental Humidity Regulates Effects of Experimental Warming on Vegetation Index and Biomass Production in an Alpine Meadow of the Northern Tibet

PubMed Central

Fu, Gang; Shen, Zhen Xi

2016-01-01

Uncertainty about responses of vegetation index, aboveground biomass (AGB) and gross primary production (GPP) limits our ability to predict how climatic warming will influence plant growth in alpine regions. A field warming experiment was conducted in an alpine meadow at a low (4313 m), mid- (4513 m) and high elevation (4693 m) in the Northern Tibet since May 2010. Growing season vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil temperature (Ts) and air temperature (Ta) decreased with increasing elevation, while growing season precipitation, soil moisture (SM), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), AGB and GPP increased with increasing elevation. The growing season Ta, Ts and VPD in 2015 was greater than that in 2014, while the growing season precipitation, SM, NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP in 2015 was lower than that in 2014, respectively. Compared to the mean air temperature and precipitation during the growing season in 1963–2015, it was a warmer and wetter year in 2014 and a warmer and drier year in 2015. Experimental warming increased growing season Ts, Ta,VPD, but decreased growing season SM in 2014–2015 at all the three elevations. Experimental warming only reduced growing season NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP at the low elevation in 2015. Growing season NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP increased with increasing SM and precipitation, but decreased with increasing VPD, indicating vegetation index and biomass production increased with environmental humidity. The VPD explained more variation of growing season NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP compared to Ts, Ta and SM at all the three elevations. Therefore, environmental humidity regulated the effect of experimental warming on vegetation index and biomass production in alpine meadows on the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:27798690

Future changes in precipitation of the baiu season under RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

2014-12-01

Recently, the relationship between global warming and rainfall during the rainy season, which called the baiu in Japan, has been attracting attention in association with heavy rainfall in this period. In the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century, many studies show a delay in the northward march of the baiu front, and significant increase of daily precipitation amounts around western Japan during the late baiu season (e.g., Kusunoki et al. 2011, Kanada et al. 2012). The future climate experiment in these studies was performed under the IPCC SRES A1B scenarios for global warming conditions. In this study, we discuss the future changes in precipitation using calculated 60km-mesh model (MRI-AGCM3.2H) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). These dataset are calculated by setting the Yoshimura (YS) scheme mainly.Seasonal progression of future precipitation generally indicates the northward in RCP2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, around western Japan. In RCP6.0 scenario, precipitation intensity is weak compared to the other scenarios. RCP8.5 scenario is calculated by setting three different cumulus schemes (YS, Arakawa-Schubert (AS), and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes). RCP8.5 configured in YS scheme showed that the rainband associated with the baiu front is not clear. Moreover, peak is remarkable during late June. In AS scheme, the precipitation area stagnates around 30 N until August. And it in KF scheme shows gradual northward migration.This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

C4 grasses prosper as carbon dioxide eliminates desiccation in warmed semi-arid grassland.

PubMed

Morgan, Jack A; LeCain, Daniel R; Pendall, Elise; Blumenthal, Dana M; Kimball, Bruce A; Carrillo, Yolima; Williams, David G; Heisler-White, Jana; Dijkstra, Feike A; West, Mark

2011-08-03

Global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative demand. Rising CO(2) may counter that trend by improving plant water-use efficiency. However, it is not clear how important this CO(2)-enhanced water use efficiency might be in offsetting warming-induced desiccation because higher CO(2) also leads to higher plant biomass, and therefore greater transpirational surface. Furthermore, although warming is predicted to favour warm-season, C(4) grasses, rising CO(2) should favour C(3), or cool-season plants. Here we show in a semi-arid grassland that elevated CO(2) can completely reverse the desiccating effects of moderate warming. Although enrichment of air to 600 p.p.m.v. CO(2) increased soil water content (SWC), 1.5/3.0 °C day/night warming resulted in desiccation, such that combined CO(2) enrichment and warming had no effect on SWC relative to control plots. As predicted, elevated CO(2) favoured C(3) grasses and enhanced stand productivity, whereas warming favoured C(4) grasses. Combined warming and CO(2) enrichment stimulated above-ground growth of C(4) grasses in 2 of 3 years when soil moisture most limited plant productivity. The results indicate that in a warmer, CO(2)-enriched world, both SWC and productivity in semi-arid grasslands may be higher than previously expected.

Does diurnal temperature range influence seasonal suicide mortality? Assessment of daily data of the Helsinki metropolitan area from 1973 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holopainen, Jari; Helama, Samuli; Partonen, Timo

2014-08-01

Several studies show a peak in suicide rates during springtime and suggest differences in the seasonal variation of suicides. However, the seasonal distribution of the temperature impact on suicide is less clear. This study investigated the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) on suicide mortality. Daily temperature and suicide data for Helsinki were analyzed for the period of 1973-2010 inclusive. Overall, DTR reached its maximum during the spring from mid-April to mid-June, which is also the season with highest suicide mortality in the study region. Specifically, the seasonal timing and maxima for both DTR and suicides vary from year to year. Time series analysis of DTR and suicide records revealed a significant ( P < 0.01) correlation between the springtime DTR maxima and suicide rates for males. No similar association could be found for females. These results provide evidence that a higher springtime DTR could be linked statistically to a higher seasonal suicide rate each spring, whereas the exact timing of the DTR peak did not associate with the seasonal suicide rate. A possible mechanism behind the springtime association between the DTR and suicides originates from brown adipose tissue (BAT) over-activity. Activation of BAT through the winter improves cold tolerance at the cost of heat tolerance. This might trigger anxiety and psychomotor agitation, affecting mood in a negative way. As a hypothesis, the compromised heat tolerance is suggested to increase the risk of death from suicide.

Are Sierran Lakes Warming as a Result of Climate Change? The Effects of Climate Warming and Variation in Precipitation on Water Temperature in a Snowmelt-Dominated Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadro, S.; Melack, J. M.; Sickman, J. O.; Skeen, K.

2016-12-01

Water temperature regulates a broad range of fundamental ecosystem processes in lakes. While climate can be an important factor regulating lake temperatures, heterogeneity in the warming response of lakes is large, and variation in precipitation is rarely considered. We analyzed three decades of climate and water temperature data from a high-elevation catchment in the southern Sierra Nevada of California to illustrate the magnitude of warming taking place during different seasons and the role of precipitation in regulating lake temperatures. Significant climate warming trends were evident during all seasons except spring. Nighttime rates of climate warming were approximately 25% higher than daytime rates. Spatial patterns in warming were elevation dependent, with rates of temperature increase higher at sites above 2800 m.a.s.l. than below. Although interannual variation in snow deposition was high, the frequency and severity of recent droughts has contributed to a significant 3.4 mm year -1 decline in snow water equivalent over the last century. Snow accumulation, more than any other climate factor, regulated lake temperature; 94% of variation in summer lake temperature was regulated by precipitation as snow. For every 100 mm decrease in snow water equivalent there was a 0.62 ° increase in lake temperature. Drought years amplify warming in lakes by reducing the role of cold spring meltwaters in lake energy budgets and prolonging the ice-free period during which lakes warm. The combination of declining winter snowpack and warming air temperatures has the capacity to amplify the effect of climate warming on lake temperatures during drought years. Interactions among climatic factors need to be considered when evaluating ecosystem level effects, especially in mountain regions. For mountain lakes already affected by drought, continued climate warming during spring and autumn has the greatest potential to impact mean lake temperatures.

Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.

PubMed

Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B

2010-10-07

Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.

Mapping the Impact of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions on Cloud Formation and Warm-season Rainfall in Mountainous Regions Using Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Yajuan

Light rainfall (< 3 mm/hr) amounts to 30-70% of the annual water budget in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM), a mid-latitude mid-mountain system in the SE CONUS. Topographic complexity favors the diurnal development of regional-scale convergence patterns that provide the moisture source for low-level clouds and fog (LLCF). Low-level moisture and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are distributed by ridge-valley circulations favoring LLCF formation that modulate the diurnal cycle of rainfall especially the mid-day peak. The overarching objective of this dissertation is to advance the quantitative understanding of the indirect effect of aerosols on the diurnal cycle of LLCF and warm-season precipitation in mountainous regions generally, and in the SAM in particular, for the purpose of improving the representation of orographic precipitation processes in remote sensing retrievals and physically-based models. The research approach consists of integrating analysis of in situ observations from long-term observation networks and an intensive field campaign, multi-sensor satellite data, and modeling studies. In the first part of this dissertation, long-term satellite observations are analyzed to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of LLCF and to elucidate the physical basis of the space-time error structure in precipitation retrievals. Significantly underestimated precipitation errors are attributed to variations in low-level rainfall microstructure undetected by satellites. Column model simulations including observed LLCF microphysics demonstrate that seeder-feeder interactions (SFI) among upper-level precipitation and LLCF contribute to an three-fold increase in observed rainfall accumulation and can enhance surface rainfall by up to ten-fold. The second part of this dissertation examines the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud formation and warm-season daytime precipitation in the SAM. A new entraining spectral cloud parcel model was developed and

Effects of global warming on ancient mammalian communities and their environments.

PubMed

DeSantis, Larisa R G; Feranec, Robert S; MacFadden, Bruce J

2009-06-03

Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C(3)/C(4) transitions and relative seasonality. Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (approximately 1.9 million years ago) and Pleistocene (approximately 1.3 million years ago) in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C(4) grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming. Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (approximately 28 degrees N). Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems.

Effect of season and high ambient temperature on activity levels and patterns of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos).

PubMed

McLellan, Michelle L; McLellan, Bruce N

2015-01-01

Understanding factors that influence daily and annual activity patterns of a species provides insights to challenges facing individuals, particularly when climate shifts, and thus is important in conservation. Using GPS collars with dual-axis motion sensors that recorded the number of switches every 5 minutes we tested the hypotheses: 1. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) increase daily activity levels and active bout lengths when they forage on berries, the major high-energy food in this ecosystem, and 2. Grizzly bears become less active and more nocturnal when ambient temperature exceeds 20°C. We found support for hypothesis 1 with both male and female bears being active from 0.7 to 2.8 h longer in the berry season than in other seasons. Our prediction under hypothesis 2 was not supported. When bears foraged on berries on a dry, open mountainside, there was no relationship between daily maximum temperature (which varied from 20.4 to 40.1°C) and the total amount of time bears were active, and no difference in activity levels during day or night between warm (20.4-27.3°C) and hot (27.9-40.1°C) days. Our results highlight the strong influence that food acquisition has on activity levels and patterns of grizzly bears and is a challenge to the heat dissipation limitation theory.

Effect of Season and High Ambient Temperature on Activity Levels and Patterns of Grizzly Bears (Ursus arctos)

PubMed Central

McLellan, Michelle L.; McLellan, Bruce N.

2015-01-01

Understanding factors that influence daily and annual activity patterns of a species provides insights to challenges facing individuals, particularly when climate shifts, and thus is important in conservation. Using GPS collars with dual-axis motion sensors that recorded the number of switches every 5 minutes we tested the hypotheses: 1. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) increase daily activity levels and active bout lengths when they forage on berries, the major high-energy food in this ecosystem, and 2. Grizzly bears become less active and more nocturnal when ambient temperature exceeds 20°C. We found support for hypothesis 1 with both male and female bears being active from 0.7 to 2.8 h longer in the berry season than in other seasons. Our prediction under hypothesis 2 was not supported. When bears foraged on berries on a dry, open mountainside, there was no relationship between daily maximum temperature (which varied from 20.4 to 40.1°C) and the total amount of time bears were active, and no difference in activity levels during day or night between warm (20.4–27.3°C) and hot (27.9–40.1°C) days. Our results highlight the strong influence that food acquisition has on activity levels and patterns of grizzly bears and is a challenge to the heat dissipation limitation theory. PMID:25692979

Comparing daily temperature averaging methods: the role of surface and atmosphere variables in determining spatial and seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, Jase; Carleton, Andrew M.

2018-05-01

The two main methods for determining the average daily near-surface air temperature, twice-daily averaging (i.e., [Tmax+Tmin]/2) and hourly averaging (i.e., the average of 24 hourly temperature measurements), typically show differences associated with the asymmetry of the daily temperature curve. To quantify the relative influence of several land surface and atmosphere variables on the two temperature averaging methods, we correlate data for 215 weather stations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1981-2010 with the differences between the two temperature-averaging methods. The variables are land use-land cover (LULC) type, soil moisture, snow cover, cloud cover, atmospheric moisture (i.e., specific humidity, dew point temperature), and precipitation. Multiple linear regression models explain the spatial and monthly variations in the difference between the two temperature-averaging methods. We find statistically significant correlations between both the land surface and atmosphere variables studied with the difference between temperature-averaging methods, especially for the extreme (i.e., summer, winter) seasons (adjusted R2 > 0.50). Models considering stations with certain LULC types, particularly forest and developed land, have adjusted R2 values > 0.70, indicating that both surface and atmosphere variables control the daily temperature curve and its asymmetry. This study improves our understanding of the role of surface and near-surface conditions in modifying thermal climates of the CONUS for a wide range of environments, and their likely importance as anthropogenic forcings—notably LULC changes and greenhouse gas emissions—continues.

Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather.

PubMed

MacLean, Heidi J; Penick, Clint A; Dunn, Robert R; Diamond, Sarah E

2017-07-01

The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3-5°C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants. Experimental winter warming significantly altered thermal performance for running speed at high (26 and 36°C) but not low test temperatures (6 and 16°C). Although we saw little differentiation in thermal performance at cooler test temperatures, we saw a marked increase in running speed at the hotter test temperatures for ants that experienced warmer winters compared with those that experienced cooler winters. Our results provide evidence that overwintering temperatures can substantially influence organismal performance, and suggest that we cannot ignore overwintering effects when forecasting organismal responses to environmental changes in temperature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal heterogeneity of ocean warming: a mortality sink for ectotherm colonizers

PubMed Central

Maffucci, Fulvio; Corrado, Raffaele; Palatella, Luigi; Borra, Marco; Marullo, Salvatore; Hochscheid, Sandra; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Iudicone, Daniele

2016-01-01

Distribution shifts are a common adaptive response of marine ectotherms to climate change but the pace of redistribution depends on species-specific traits that may promote or hamper expansion to northern habitats. Here we show that recently, the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has begun to nest steadily beyond the northern edge of the species’ range in the Mediterranean basin. This range expansion is associated with a significant warming of spring and summer sea surface temperature (SST) that offers a wider thermal window suitable for nesting. However, we found that post-hatchlings departing from this location experience low winter SST that may affect their survival and thus hamper the stabilization of the site by self-recruitment. The inspection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections and observational data on SST trends shows that, despite the annual warming for this century, winter SST show little or no trends. Therefore, thermal constraints during the early developmental phase may limit the chance of population growth at this location also in the near future, despite increasingly favourable conditions at the nesting sites. Quantifying and understanding the interplay between dispersal and environmental changes at all life stages is critical for predicting ectotherm range expansion with climate warming. PMID:27044321

Seasonal heterogeneity of ocean warming: a mortality sink for ectotherm colonizers.

PubMed

Maffucci, Fulvio; Corrado, Raffaele; Palatella, Luigi; Borra, Marco; Marullo, Salvatore; Hochscheid, Sandra; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Iudicone, Daniele

2016-04-05

Distribution shifts are a common adaptive response of marine ectotherms to climate change but the pace of redistribution depends on species-specific traits that may promote or hamper expansion to northern habitats. Here we show that recently, the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has begun to nest steadily beyond the northern edge of the species' range in the Mediterranean basin. This range expansion is associated with a significant warming of spring and summer sea surface temperature (SST) that offers a wider thermal window suitable for nesting. However, we found that post-hatchlings departing from this location experience low winter SST that may affect their survival and thus hamper the stabilization of the site by self-recruitment. The inspection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections and observational data on SST trends shows that, despite the annual warming for this century, winter SST show little or no trends. Therefore, thermal constraints during the early developmental phase may limit the chance of population growth at this location also in the near future, despite increasingly favourable conditions at the nesting sites. Quantifying and understanding the interplay between dispersal and environmental changes at all life stages is critical for predicting ectotherm range expansion with climate warming.

Seasonal heterogeneity of ocean warming: a mortality sink for ectotherm colonizers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffucci, Fulvio; Corrado, Raffaele; Palatella, Luigi; Borra, Marco; Marullo, Salvatore; Hochscheid, Sandra; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Iudicone, Daniele

2016-04-01

Distribution shifts are a common adaptive response of marine ectotherms to climate change but the pace of redistribution depends on species-specific traits that may promote or hamper expansion to northern habitats. Here we show that recently, the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has begun to nest steadily beyond the northern edge of the species’ range in the Mediterranean basin. This range expansion is associated with a significant warming of spring and summer sea surface temperature (SST) that offers a wider thermal window suitable for nesting. However, we found that post-hatchlings departing from this location experience low winter SST that may affect their survival and thus hamper the stabilization of the site by self-recruitment. The inspection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections and observational data on SST trends shows that, despite the annual warming for this century, winter SST show little or no trends. Therefore, thermal constraints during the early developmental phase may limit the chance of population growth at this location also in the near future, despite increasingly favourable conditions at the nesting sites. Quantifying and understanding the interplay between dispersal and environmental changes at all life stages is critical for predicting ectotherm range expansion with climate warming.

Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific Warm Pool During TOGA COARE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Zhao, Wenzhong; Chou, Ming-Dah

1998-01-01

The daily mean heat and momentum fluxes at the surface derived from the SSM/I and Japan's GMS radiance measurements are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of the surface energy budgets and their relationship to the sea surface temperature during the COARE intensive observing period (IOP). For the three time legs observed during the IOP, the retrieved surface fluxes compare reasonably well with those from the IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma. The characteristics of surface heat and momentum fluxes are very different between the southern and northern warm pool. In the southern warm pool, the net surface heat flux is dominated by solar radiation which is, in turn, modulated by the two Madden-Julian oscillations. The surface winds are generally weak, leading to a shallow ocean mixed layer. The solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is significant, and the change in the sea surface temperature during the IOP does not follow the net surface heat flux. In the northern warm pool, the northeasterly trade wind is strong and undergoes strong seasonal variation. The variation of the net surface heat flux is dominated by evaporation. The two westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden-Julian oscillations seem to have little effect on the net surface heat flux. The ocean mixed layer is deep, and the solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is small. As opposed to the southern warm pool, the trend of the sea surface temperature in the northern warm pool during the IOP is in agreement with the variation of the net heat flux at the surface.

Holocene landscape response to seasonality of storms in the Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, D.M.; Schmidt, K.M.; Mahan, S.A.; McGeehin, J.P.; Owen, L.A.; Barron, J.A.; Lehmkuhl, F.; Lohrer, R.

2010-01-01

New optically stimulated and radiocarbon ages for alluvial fan and lake deposits in the Mojave Desert are presented, which greatly improves the temporal resolution of surface processes. The new Mojave Desert climate-landscape record is particularly detailed for the late Holocene. Evidence from ephemeral lake deposits and landforms indicates times of sustained stream flow during a wet interval of the latter part of the Medieval Warm Period at ca. AD 1290 and during the Little Ice Age at ca. AD 1650. The former lakes postdate megadroughts of the Medieval Warm Period, whereas the latter match the Maunder Minimum of the Little Ice Age. Periods of alluvial fan aggradation across the Mojave Desert are 14-9 cal ka and 6-3 cal ka. This timing largely correlates to times of increased sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of California and enhanced warm-season monsoons. This correlation suggests that sustained alluvial fan aggradation may be driven by intense summer-season storms. These data suggest that the close proximity of the Mojave Desert to the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California promotes a partitioning of landscape-process responses to climate forcings that vary with seasonality of the dominant storms. Cool-season Pacific frontal storms cause river flow, ephemeral lakes, and fan incision, whereas periods of intense warm-season storms cause hillslope erosion and alluvial fan aggradation. The proposed landscape-process partitioning has important implications for hazard mitigation given that climate change may increase sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of California, which indirectly could increase future alluvial fan aggradation.

Associations between daily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases and ambient fine particulate matter and ozone levels in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yiyi; Zu, Yaqun; Huang, Lin; Zhang, Hongliang; Wang, Changhui; Hu, Jianlin

2018-09-01

Air pollution in China has been very serious during the recent decades. However, few studies have investigated the effects of short-term exposure to PM 2.5 and O 3 on daily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases. We examined the effects of PM 2.5 and O 3 on the daily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases, explored the sensitivities of different population subgroups and analyzed the relative risk (RR) of PM 2.5 and O 3 in different seasons in Shanghai during 2013-2016. The generalized linear model (GLM) was applied to analyze the exposure-response relationship between air pollutants (daily average PM 2.5 and daily maximum 8-h average O 3 ), and daily outpatient visits due to respiratory diseases. The sensitivities of males and females at the ages of 15-60 yr-old and 60+ yr-old to the pollutants were also studied for the whole year and for the cold and warm months, respectively. Finally, the results of the single-day lagged model were compared with that of the moving average lag model. At lag 0 day, the RR of respiratory outpatients increased by 0.37% with a 10 μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 . Exposure to PM 2.5 (RR, 1.0047, 95% CI, 1.0032-1.0062) was more sensitive for females than for males (RR, 1.0025, 95% CI, 1.0008-1.0041), and was more sensitive for the 15-60 yr-old (RR, 1.0041, 95% CI, 1.0027-1.0055) than the 60+ yr-old age group (RR, 1.0031, 95% CI, 1.0014-1.0049). O 3 was not significantly associated with respiratory outpatient visits during the warm periods, but was negatively associated during the cold periods. PM 2.5 was more significantly in the cold periods than that in the warm periods. The results indicated that control of PM 2.5 , compared to O 3 , in the cold periods would be more beneficial to the respiratory health in Shanghai. In addition, the single-day lagged model underestimated the relationship between PM 2.5 and O 3 and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases compared to the moving average lag model. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd

Observed and Projected Changes in Thermal Growing Degree-Days and Growing Season and Their Divergent Responses to Warming over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, H.

2017-12-01

Vegetation growth and phenology are largely regulated by the growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS). By choosing 0°C, 5°C and 10°C, three key based temperatures (Tb) for vegetation growth, the GDD and GS in China during the observed period (1960-2011) were developed using homogenized daily mean temperatures (Td) in 536 meteorological stations. In addition, the GDD10 and GS10 in China were projected under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs) during 1961-2099, using the Td (0.5°×0.5°) derived from five general circulation models (GCMs), after model evaluation. Advance in the start of the growing season (SOS; 4.86-6.71 days; SOS0 > SOS5 > SOS10) and delay in the end of the growing season (EOS; 4.32-6.19 days; EOS0 < EOS5 < EOS10) lengthened the GS by 10.76-11.02 days during the observed period, while the GDD has totally increased by 218.92-339.40°C·d (GDD0 > GDD5 > GDD10), in China as a whole. Each observed variation has a substantial acceleration mostly in 1987 or 1996, and a speed reduction or a trend reversal in the early 2000s. Increases in the GDD10 and GS10 would continue in the 21st century, causing northward shifts in the temperature zones. Finally in the long-term (2071-2099), the nationally average GDD10 and GS10 would be 279.1°C·d higher and 16.5 d longer for RCP 2.6, and 964.4°C·d higher and 50.3 d longer for RCP 8.5, relative to 1981-2010. Regionally, the GDD enhancement were stronger in the tropics, east, northeast and northwest China during the observed period, and tend to be in southern China in the future. The largest GS extensions are consistently in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Alpine zone, particularly in the future. During the observed period, advance in SOS and delay in EOS drove the GS extensions in the eastern monsoon zone and northwest arid/semi-arid zone respectively. In the future, an advanced SOS drives the GS extension in the northern (> ca. 33°N) Tibetan Alpine zone, the

Observed seasonal and interannual variability of the near-surface thermal structure of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, R. R.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2017-06-01

The observed seasonal and interannual variability of near-surface thermal structure of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool (ASWP) is examined utilizing a reanalysis data set for the period 1990-2008. During a year, the ASWP progressively builds from February, reaches its peak by May only in the topmost 60 m water column. The ASWP Index showed a strong seasonal cycle with distinct interannual signatures. The years with higher (lower) sea surface temperature (SST) and larger (smaller) spatial extent are termed as strong (weak) ASWP years. The differences in the magnitude and spatial extent of thermal structure between the strong and weak ASWP regimes are seen more prominently in the topmost 40 m water column. The heat content values with respect to 28 °C isotherm (HC28) are relatively higher (lower) during strong (weak) ASWP years. Even the secondary peak in HC28 seen during the preceding November-December showed higher (lower) magnitude during the strong ASWP (weak) years. The influence of the observed variability in the surface wind field, surface net air-sea heat flux, near-surface mixed layer thickness, sea surface height (SSH) anomaly, depth of 20 °C isotherm and barrier layer thickness is examined to explain the observed differences in the near-surface thermal structure of the ASWP between strong and weak regimes. The surface wind speed is much weaker in particular during the preceding October and February-March corresponding to the strong ASWP years when compared to those of the weak ASWP years implying its important role. Both stronger winter cooling during weak ASWP years and stronger pre-monsoon heating during strong ASWP years through the surface air-sea heat fluxes contribute to the observed sharp contrast in the magnitudes of both the regimes of the ASWP. The upwelling Rossby wave during the preceding summer monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons is stronger corresponding to the weak ASWP regime when compared to the strong ASWP regime resulting in greater

Assessing a Top-Down Modeling Approach for Seasonal Scale Snow Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, C. H.; Lute, A.

2017-12-01

Mechanistic snow models are commonly applied to assess changes to snowpacks in a warming climate. Such assessments involve a number of assumptions about details of weather at daily to sub-seasonal time scales. Models of season-scale behavior can provide contrast for evaluating behavior at time scales more in concordance with climate warming projections. Such top-down models, however, involve a degree of empiricism, with attendant caveats about the potential of a changing climate to affect calibrated relationships. We estimated the sensitivity of snowpacks from 497 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations in the western U.S. based on differences in climate between stations (spatial analog). We examined the sensitivity of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) and mean snow residence time (SRT) to variations in Nov-Mar precipitation and average Nov-Mar temperature using multivariate local-fit regressions. We tested the modeling approach using a leave-one-out cross-validation as well as targeted two-fold non-random cross-validations contrasting, for example, warm vs. cold years, dry vs. wet years, and north vs. south stations. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values for the validations were strong for April 1 SWE, ranging from 0.71 to 0.90, and still reasonable, but weaker, for SRT, in the range of 0.64 to 0.81. From these ranges, we exclude validations where the training data do not represent the range of target data. A likely reason for differences in validation between the two metrics is that the SWE model reflects the influence of conservation of mass while using temperature as an indicator of the season-scale energy balance; in contrast, SRT depends more strongly on the energy balance aspects of the problem. Model forms with lower numbers of parameters generally validated better than more complex model forms, with the caveat that pseudoreplication could encourage selection of more complex models when validation contrasts were weak. Overall, the split sample validations

Urbanization effects on climatic changes in 24 particular timings of the seasonal cycle in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Cheng; Ren, Guoyu; Zhou, Yaqing

2016-05-01

Changes in the timing of the seasonal cycle are important to natural ecosystems and human society, particularly agronomic activity. Urbanization effects (UEs) on surface air temperature changes at the local scale can be strong. Quantifying the observed changes in the timing of the seasonal cycle associated with UEs or large-scale background climatic warming is beneficial for the detection and attribution of regional climate change and for effective human adaptation, particularly in China, where rapid urbanization and industrialization are occurring. In this study, long-term changes in 24 particular timings of seasonal cycle, known as the Twenty-four Solar Terms (24STs), in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River in China are analyzed on the basis of homogenized daily temperature data over 1961-2010. UEs on these changes are further assessed by using a rural-station network selected from 2419 meteorological stations. In terms of area mean, half of the 24STs have significantly warmed, and UEs have contributed to 0.07-0.14 °C/decade or 25.7-64.0 % of the overall warming. The climatic solar terms from mid-February to early May (September and early October) have significantly advanced (delayed) by 5-17 days (approximately 5 days) over the last 50 years; 2-4 (2-3) of these days are attributed to UEs. The contribution of urbanization to the advancing or delaying trends is 21.7-69.5 %. The implications of these quantitative results differ for farmers, urban residents, and migrant workers in cities.

Hourly, daily, and seasonal variability in the absorption spectra of chromophoric dissolved organic matter in a eutrophic, humic lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, R. A.; Kothawala, D. N.; Podgrajsek, E.; Sahlée, E.; Koehler, B.; Tranvik, L. J.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.

2014-10-01

The short-term (hourly and daily) variation in chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in lakes is largely unknown. We assessed the spectral characteristics of light absorption by CDOM in a eutrophic, humic shallow mixed lake of temperate Sweden at a high-frequency (30 min) interval and during a full growing season (May to October). Physical time series, such as solar radiation, temperature, wind, and partial pressures of carbon dioxide in water and air, were measured synchronously. We identified a strong radiation-induced summer CDOM loss (25 to 50%) that developed over 4 months, which was accompanied by strong changes in CDOM absorption spectral shape. The magnitude of the CDOM loss exceeded subhourly to daily variability by an order of magnitude. Applying Fourier analysis, we demonstrate that variation in CDOM remained largely unaffected by rapid shifts in weather, and no apparent response to in-lake dissolved organic carbon production was found. In autumn, CDOM occasionally showed variation at hourly to daily time scales, reaching a maximum daily coefficient of variation of 15%. We suggest that lake-internal effects on CDOM are quenched in humic lake waters by dominating effects associated with imported CDOM and solar exposure. Since humic lake waters belong to one of the most abundant lake types on Earth, our results have important implications for the understanding of global CDOM cycling.

Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming.

PubMed

Lima, Fernando P; Wethey, David S

2012-02-28

Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.

Climate variability and dengue fever in warm and humid Mexico.

PubMed

Colón-González, Felipe J; Lake, Iain R; Bentham, Graham

2011-05-01

Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems.

The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Enfield, D. B.

2002-12-01

The paper describes and examines variability of the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5oC. The WHWP is the second-largest tropical warm pool on Earth. Unlike the Eastern Hemisphere warm pool in the western Pacific, which straddles the equator, the WHWP is entirely north of the equator. At various stages of development the WHWP extends over parts of the eastern North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the western tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and WHWP area in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness seems to operate in the WHWP. During winter preceding large warm pool, there is an alteration of the Walker and Hadley circulation cells that serves as a "tropospheric bridge" for transferring Pacific ENSO effects to the Atlantic sector and inducing initial warming of warm pool. Associated with the warm SST anomalies is a decrease in sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less net longwave radiation loss from the sea surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.

The response of aboveground plant productivity to earlier snowmelt and summer warming in an Arctic ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livensperger, C.; Steltzer, H.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Sullivan, P.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Weintraub, M. N.

2012-12-01

Plant communities in the Arctic are undergoing changes in structure and function due to shifts in seasonality from changing winters and summer warming. These changes will impact biogeochemical cycling, surface energy balance, and functioning of vertebrate and invertebrate communities. To examine seasonal controls on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in a moist acidic tundra ecosystem in northern Alaska, we shifted the growing season by accelerating snowmelt (using radiation absorbing shadecloth) and warming air and soil temperature (using 1 m2 open-top chambers), individually and in combination. After three years, we measured ANPP by harvesting up to 16 individual ramets, tillers and rhizomes for each of 7 plant species, including two deciduous shrubs, two graminoids, two evergreen shrubs and one forb during peak season. Our results show that ANPP per stem summed across the 7 species increased when snow melt occurred earlier. However, standing biomass, excluding current year growth, was also greater. The ratio of ANPP/standing biomass decreased in all treatments compared to the control. ANPP per unit standing biomass summed for the four shrub species decreases due to summer warming alone or in combination with early snowmelt; however early snowmelt alone did not lead to lower ANPP for the shrubs. ANPP per tiller or rhizome summed for the three herbaceous species increased in response to summer warming. Understanding the differential response of plants to changing seasonality will inform predictions of future Arctic plant community structure and function.

Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature.

PubMed

Harris, Phil P; Huntingford, Chris; Cox, Peter M

2008-05-27

The Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model (HadCM3LC) predicts loss of the Amazon rainforest in response to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the atmospheric component of HadCM3LC is used to assess the role of simulated changes in mid-twenty-first century sea surface temperature (SST) in Amazon Basin climate change. When the full HadCM3LC SST anomalies (SSTAs) are used, the atmosphere model reproduces the Amazon Basin climate change exhibited by HadCM3LC, including much of the reduction in Amazon Basin rainfall. This rainfall change is shown to be the combined effect of SSTAs in both the tropical Atlantic and the Pacific, with roughly equal contributions from each basin. The greatest rainfall reduction occurs from May to October, outside of the mature South American monsoon (SAM) season. This dry season response is the combined effect of a more rapid warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to the south, and warm SSTAs in the tropical east Pacific. Conversely, a weak enhancement of mature SAM season rainfall in response to Atlantic SST change is suppressed by the atmospheric response to Pacific SST. This net wet season response is sufficient to prevent dry season soil moisture deficits from being recharged through the SAM season, leading to a perennial soil moisture reduction and an associated 30% reduction in annual Amazon Basin net primary productivity (NPP). A further 23% NPP reduction occurs in response to a 3.5 degrees C warmer air temperature associated with a global mean SST warming.

The cost of feeding bred dairy heifers on native warm-season grasses and harvested feedstuffs.

PubMed

Lowe, J K; Boyer, C N; Griffith, A P; Waller, J C; Bates, G E; Keyser, P D; Larson, J A; Holcomb, E

2016-01-01

Heifer rearing is one of the largest production expenses for dairy cattle operations, which is one reason milking operations outsource heifer rearing to custom developers. The cost of harvested feedstuffs is a major expense in heifer rearing. A possible way to lower feed costs is to graze dairy heifers, but little research exists on this topic in the mid-south United States. The objectives of this research were to determine the cost of feeding bred dairy heifers grazing native warm-season grasses (NWSG), with and without legumes, and compare the cost of grazing with the cost of rearing heifers using 3 traditional rations. The 3 rations were corn silage with soybean meal, corn silage with dry distillers grain, and a wet distillers grain-based ration. Bred Holstein heifers between 15- and 20-mo-old continuously grazed switchgrass (SG), SG with red clover (SG+RC), a big bluestem and Indiangrass mixture (BBIG), and BBIG with red clover (BBIG+RC) in Tennessee during the summer months. Total grazing days were calculated for each NWSG to determine the average cost/animal per grazing day. The average daily gain (ADG) was calculated for each NWSG to develop 3 harvested feed rations that would result in the same ADG over the same number of grazing day as each NWSG treatment. The average cost/animal per grazing day was lowest for SG ($0.48/animal/grazing d) and highest for BBIG+RC ($1.10/animal/grazing d). For both BBIG and SG, legumes increased the average cost/animal per grazing day because grazing days did not increase enough to account for the additional cost of the legumes. No difference was observed in ADG for heifers grazing BBIG (0.85 kg/d) and BBIG+RC (0.94 kg/d), and no difference was observed in ADG for heifers grazing SG (0.71 kg/d) and SG+RC (0.70 kg/d). However, the ADG for heifers grazing SG and SG+RC was lower than the ADG for heifers grazing either BBIG or BBIG+RC. The average cost/animal per grazing day was lower for all NWSG treatments than the average cost

Warming and drought reduce temperature sensitivity of nitrogen transformations.

PubMed

Novem Auyeung, Dolaporn S; Suseela, Vidya; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2013-02-01

Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important

Enhanced greenhouse gas emissions from the Arctic with experimental warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, Carolina; Lamprecht, Richard E.; Marushchak, Maija E.; Lind, Saara E.; Novakovskiy, Alexander; Aurela, Mika; Martikainen, Pertti J.; Biasi, Christina

2017-04-01

Temperatures in the Arctic are projected to increase more rapidly than in lower latitudes. With temperature being a key factor for regulating biogeochemical processes in ecosystems, even a subtle temperature increase might promote the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. Usually, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the GHGs dominating the climatic impact of tundra. However, bare, patterned ground features in the Arctic have recently been identified as hot spots for nitrous oxide (N2O). N2O is a potent greenhouse gas, which is almost 300 times more effective in its global warming potential than CO2; but studies on arctic N2O fluxes are rare. In this study we examined the impact of temperature increase on the seasonal GHG balance of all three important GHGs (CO2, CH4 and N2O) from three tundra surface types (vegetated peat soils, unvegetated peat soils, upland mineral soils) in the Russian Arctic (67˚ 03' N 62˚ 55' E), during the course of two growing seasons. We deployed open-top chambers (OTCs), inducing air and soil surface warming, thus mimicking predicted warming scenarios. We combined detailed CO2, CH4 and N2O flux studies with concentration measurements of these gases within the soil profile down to the active layer-permafrost interface, and complemented these GHG measurements with detailed soil nutrient (nitrate and ammonium) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) measurements in the soil pore water profile. In our study, gentle air warming (˜1.0 ˚ C) increased the seasonal GHG release of all dominant surface types: the GHG budget of vegetated peat and mineral soils, which together cover more than 80 % of the land area in our study region, shifted from a sink to a source of -300 to 144 g CO2-eq m-2 and from -198 to 105 g CO2-eq m-2, respectively. While the positive warming response was governed by CO2, we provide here the first in situ evidence that warming increases arctic N2O emissions: Warming did not only enhance N2O emissions from

Future warming and acidification effects on anti-fouling and anti-herbivory traits of the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus (Phaeophyceae).

PubMed

Raddatz, Stefanie; Guy-Haim, Tamar; Rilov, Gil; Wahl, Martin

2017-02-01

Human-induced ocean warming and acidification have received increasing attention over the past decade and are considered to have substantial consequences for a broad range of marine species and their interactions. Understanding how these interactions shift in response to climate change is particularly important with regard to foundation species, such as the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus. This macroalga represents the dominant habitat former on coastal rocky substrata of the Baltic Sea, fulfilling functions essential for the entire benthic community. Its ability to withstand extensive fouling and herbivory regulates the associated community and ecosystem dynamics. This study tested the interactive effects of future warming, acidification, and seasonality on the interactions of a marine macroalga with potential foulers and consumers. F. vesiculosus rockweeds were exposed to different combinations of conditions predicted regionally for the year 2100 (+∆5°C, +∆700 μatm CO 2 ) using multifactorial long-term experiments in novel outdoor benthic mesocosms ("Benthocosms") over 9-12-week periods in four seasons. Possible shifts in the macroalgal susceptibility to fouling and consumption were tested using consecutive bioassays. Algal susceptibility to fouling and grazing varied substantially among seasons and between treatments. In all seasons, warming predominantly affected anti-fouling and anti-herbivory interactions while acidification had a subtle nonsignificant influence. Interestingly, anti-microfouling activity was highest during winter under warming, while anti-macrofouling and anti-herbivory activities were highest in the summer under warming. These contrasting findings indicate that seasonal changes in anti-fouling and anti-herbivory traits may interact with ocean warming in altering F. vesiculosus community composition in the future. © 2016 Phycological Society of America.

Drying projection over western maritime continent during Southwest and Northeast monsoon seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartika Lestari, R.

2017-04-01

In the maritime continent, the precipitation variability is large and recently, this region experiences longer dry season and more number of severe drought events that are threatening the human life, such as, water supply for daily life and agriculture, and unhealthy air quality due to the increased number of wildfires. Global warming has been known to contribute to the rainfall anomalies around the world, and present study investigate the extent to which the drying conditions are going to be happened in 21st century over western part of the maritime continent (WMC), where the population is much larger than the eastern part, during both active Southwest (SW) and Northeast (NE) monsoon seasons. A future change in the precipitation over WMC is suggested from our analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. In addition to CMIP5, we analyse the downscaled data of nine selected CMIP5 models to examine if there is modification in the drying projection when higher resolution data are used. While the north and south of equator show out of phase in the precipitation change, the region around equator shows decreased precipitation during both the SW monsoon in June-July-August-September (JJAS) and the peak of NE monsoon in February (FEB). The drying projection is robustly shown in FEB when Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shift to the southern hemisphere, but the same robustness is not shown in JJAS when the monsoon over South China Sea is active. The detail results, including the mechanisms and the impacts of tropical climate features (such as, warming Pacific Ocean, monsoon, ITCZ) that drive the drying projection, and the possible reasons causing different degree in the robustness between two seasons, will be shown in the presentation.

Recent Trends in the Arctic Navigable Ice Season and Links to Atmospheric Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslanik, J.; Drobot, S.

2002-12-01

One of the potential effects of Arctic climate warming is an increase in the navigable ice season, perhaps resulting in development of the Arctic as a major shipping route. The distance from western North American ports to Europe through the Northwest Passage (NWP) or the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is typically 20 to 60 percent shorter than travel through the Panama Canal, while travel between Europe and the Far East may be reduced by as much as three weeks compared to transport through the Suez Canal. An increase in the navigable ice season would also improve commercial opportunities within the Arctic region, such as mineral and oil exploration and tourism, which could potentially expand the economic base of Arctic residents and companies, but which would also have negative environmental impacts. Utilizing daily passive-microwave derived sea ice concentrations, trends and variability in the Arctic navigable ice season are examined from 1979 through 2001. Trend analyses suggest large increases in the length of the navigable ice season in the Kara and Barents seas, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Beaufort Sea, with decreases in the length of the navigable ice season in the Bering Sea. Interannual variations in the navigable ice season largely are governed by fluctuations in low-frequency atmospheric circulation, although the specific annular modes affecting the length of the navigable ice season vary by region. In the Beaufort and East Siberian seas, variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation control the navigable ice season, while variations in the East Pacific anomaly play an important role in controlling the navigable ice season in the Kara and Barents seas. In Hudson Bay, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and Baffin Bay, interannual variations in the navigable ice season are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Extremely cold events and sudden air temperature drops during winter season in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crhová, Lenka; Valeriánová, Anna; Holtanová, Eva; Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Stříž, Martin

2014-05-01

Today a great attention is turned to analysis of extreme weather events and frequency of their occurrence under changing climate. In most cases, these studies are focused on extremely warm events in summer season. However, extremely low values of air temperature during winter can have serious impacts on many sectors as well (e.g. power engineering, transportation, industry, agriculture, human health). Therefore, in present contribution we focus on extremely and abnormally cold air temperature events in winter season in the Czech Republic. Besides the seasonal extremes of minimum air temperature determined from station data, the standardized data with removed annual cycle are used as well. Distribution of extremely cold events over the season and the temporal evolution of frequency of occurrence during the period 1961-2010 are analyzed. Furthermore, the connection of cold events with extreme sudden temperature drops is studied. The extreme air temperature events and events of extreme sudden temperature drop are assessed using the Weather Extremity Index, which evaluates the extremity (based on return periods) and spatial extent of the meteorological extreme event of interest. The generalized extreme value distribution parameters are used to estimate return periods of daily temperature values. The work has been supported by the grant P209/11/1990 funded by the Czech Science Foundation.

Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke

2018-03-01

A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium.

PubMed

Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke

2018-03-01

A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and

Daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual ammonia emissions from Southern High Plains cattle feedyards.

PubMed

Todd, Richard W; Cole, N Andy; Rhoades, Marty B; Parker, David B; Casey, Kenneth D

2011-01-01

Ammonia emitted from beef cattle feedyards adds excess reactive N to the environment, contributes to degraded air quality as a precursor to secondary particulate matter, and represents a significant loss of N from beef cattle feedyards. We used open path laser spectroscopy and an inverse dispersion model to quantify daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual NH emissions during 2 yr from two commercial cattle feedyards in the Panhandle High Plains of Texas. Annual patterns of NH fluxes correlated with air temperature, with the greatest fluxes (>100 kg ha d) during the summer and the lowest fluxes (<15 kg ha d) during the winter. Mean monthly per capita emission rate (PCER) of NH-N at one feedyard ranged from 31 g NH-N head d (January) to 207 g NH-N head d (October), when increased dietary crude protein from wet distillers grains elevated emissions. Ammonia N emissions at the other feedyard ranged from 36 g NH-N head d (January) to 121 g NH-N head d (September). Monthly fractional NH-N loss ranged from a low of 19 to 24% to a high of 80 to 85% of fed N at the two feedyards. Seasonal PCER at the two feedyards averaged 60 to 71 g NH-N head d during winter and 103 to 158 g NH-N head d during summer. Annually, PCER was 115 and 80 g NH-N head d at the two feedyards, which represented 59 and 52% of N fed to the cattle. Detailed studies are needed to determine the effect of management and environmental variables such as diet, temperature, precipitation, and manure water content on NH emissions. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

The association between daily concentrations of air pollution and visits to a psychiatric emergency unit: a case-crossover study.

PubMed

Oudin, Anna; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Asplund, Peter; Steingrimsson, Steinn; Szabo, Zoltan; Carlsen, Hanne Krage

2018-01-10

Air pollution is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Experimental studies, and a few epidemiological studies, suggest that air pollution may cause acute exacerbation of psychiatric disorders, and even increase the rate of suicide attempts, but epidemiological studies on air pollution in association with psychiatric disorders are still few. Our aim was to investigate associations between daily fluctuations in air pollution concentrations and the daily number of visits to a psychiatric emergency unit. Data from Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden, on the daily number of visits to the Psychiatric emergency unit were combined with daily data on monitored concentrations of respirable particulate matter(PM 10 ), ozone(O 3 ), nitrogen dioxides(NO 2 ) and temperature between 1st July 2012 and 31st December 2016. We used a case-crossover design to analyze data with conditional Poisson regression models allowing for over-dispersion. We stratified data on season. Visits increased with increasing PM 10 levels during the warmer season (April to September) in both single-pollutant and two-pollutant models. For example, an increase of 3.6% (95% Confidence Interval, CI, 0.4-7.0%) was observed with a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM 10 adjusted for NO 2 . In the three-pollutant models (adjusting for NO 2 and O 3 simultaneously) the increase was 3.3% (95% CI, -0.2-6.9). There were no clear associations between the outcome and NO 2 , O 3 , or PM 10 during the colder season (October to March). Ambient air particle concentrations were associated with the number of visits to the Psychiatric emergency unit in the warm season. The results were only borderline statistically significant in the fully adjusted (three-pollutant) models in this small study. The observation could be interpreted as indicative of air pollution as either exacerbating an underlying psychiatric disorder, or increasing mental distress, even in areas with comparatively low levels of

A distinction between summer rainy season and summer monsoon season over the Central Highlands of Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngo-Thanh, Huong; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Nguyen-Hong, Hanh; Baker, Peter; Phan-Van, Tan

2018-05-01

The daily rainfall data at 13 stations over the Central Highlands (CH) Vietnam were collected for the period 1981-2014. Two different sets of criteria using daily observed rainfall and 850 hPa daily reanalysis wind data were applied to determine the onset (retreat) dates of the summer rainy season (RS) and summer monsoon (SM) season, respectively. Over the study period, the mean RS and SM onset dates were April 20 and May 13 with standard deviations of 17.4 and 17.8 days, respectively. The mean RS and SM retreat dates were November 1 and September 30 with standard deviations of 17.9 and 10.2 days, respectively . The year-to-year variations of the onset dates and the rainfall amount within the RS and SM season were closely linked with the preceding winter and spring sea surface temperature in the central-eastern and western Pacific. It was also found that the onset dates were significantly correlated with the RS and SM rainfall amount.

Convectively induced mesoscale weather systems in the tropical and warm-season midlatitude atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smull, Bradley F.

1995-07-01

As anticipated by Nelson [1991] in the last U.S. National Report, mesoscale meteorology has continued to be an area of vigorous research activity. Progress is evinced by a growing number of process-oriented studies capitalizing on expanded observational capabilities, as well as more theoretical treatments employing numerical simulations of increasing sophistication. While the majority of papers within the scope of this review fall into the category of basic research, the field's maturation is evident in the emergence of a growing number of applications to operational weather forecasting. Even as our ability to anticipate shifts in synoptic scale upper-air patterns and associated baroclinic developments has steadily improved, lagging skill with regard to quantitative forecasts of precipitation—particularly in situations where deep moist convection is prevalent—has sustained research in warm-season mesoscale meteorology. Each spring and summer midlatitude populations are exposed to life-threatening natural weather phenomena in the form of lightning, tornadoes, straight-line winds, hail, and flash floods. This point was driven home during the summer of 1993, when an extraordinarily persistent series of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) led to unusually severe and widespread flooding throughout the Mississippi and Missouri river basins. In addition to this obvious impact on regional climate, the 1990's have brought an increased appreciation for the less direct yet potentially significant role that tropical convection may play in shaping global climate through phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Environmental DNA (eDNA) Detection Probability Is Influenced by Seasonal Activity of Organisms.

PubMed

de Souza, Lesley S; Godwin, James C; Renshaw, Mark A; Larson, Eric

2016-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) holds great promise for conservation applications like the monitoring of invasive or imperiled species, yet this emerging technique requires ongoing testing in order to determine the contexts over which it is effective. For example, little research to date has evaluated how seasonality of organism behavior or activity may influence detection probability of eDNA. We applied eDNA to survey for two highly imperiled species endemic to the upper Black Warrior River basin in Alabama, US: the Black Warrior Waterdog (Necturus alabamensis) and the Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus). Importantly, these species have contrasting patterns of seasonal activity, with N. alabamensis more active in the cool season (October-April) and S. depressus more active in the warm season (May-September). We surveyed sites historically occupied by these species across cool and warm seasons over two years with replicated eDNA water samples, which were analyzed in the laboratory using species-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. We then used occupancy estimation with detection probability modeling to evaluate both the effects of landscape attributes on organism presence and season of sampling on detection probability of eDNA. Importantly, we found that season strongly affected eDNA detection probability for both species, with N. alabamensis having higher eDNA detection probabilities during the cool season and S. depressus have higher eDNA detection probabilities during the warm season. These results illustrate the influence of organismal behavior or activity on eDNA detection in the environment and identify an important role for basic natural history in designing eDNA monitoring programs.

Formulation of cosmic-ray solar daily variation and its seasonal variation, produced from generalized stationary anisotropy of solar origin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tatsuoka, R.; Nagashima, K.

1985-01-01

In previous papers, a formulation was presented of cosmic ray daily variations produced from solar anisotropies stationary through a year, and also of their annual (or seasonal) modulation caused by the annual variation of the rotation axis of the Earth relative to that of the Sun. These anisotropies are symmetric for an arbitrary rotation around an axis. From observations of the tri-diurnal variation, it has been suggested that solar anisotropies also contain some axis-asymmetric term of the third order with respect to the IMF-axis. This suggestion has recently found support in a theoretical study by Munakata and Nagashima. According to their results, the terms of axis-asymmetry with respect to IMF-axis appear also in the 2nd order anisotropy, together with some different kinds of axis-symmetric terms. The contribution of these anisotropies to the daily variation is different from that of those discussed previously. The above mentioned formulation is extended to a case of a generalized anisotropy.

Root and Shoot Phenology May Respond Differently to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radville, L.; Eissenstat, D. M.; Post, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change is increasing temperatures and extending the growing season for many organisms. Shifts in phenology have been widely reported in response to global warming and have strong effects on ecosystem processes and greenhouse gas emissions. It is well understood that warming generally advances aboveground plant phenology, but the influence of temperature on root phenology is unclear. Most terrestrial biosphere models assume that root and shoot growth occur at the same time and are influenced by warming in the same way, but recent studies suggest that this may not be the case. Testing this assumption is particularly important in the Arctic where over 70% of plant biomass can be belowground and warming is happening faster than in other ecosystems. In 2013 and 2014 we examined the timing of root growth in the Arctic in plots that had been warmed or unwarmed for 10 years. We found that peak root growth occurred about one month before leaf growth, suggesting that spring root phenology is not controlled by carbon produced during spring photosynthesis. If root phenology is not controlled by photosynthate early in the season, earlier spring leaf growth may not cause earlier spring root growth. In support of this, we found that warming advanced spring leaf cover but did not significantly affect root phenology. Root growth was not significantly correlated with soil temperature and did not appear to be limited by near-freezing temperatures above the permafrost. These results suggest that although shoots are influenced by temperature, roots in this system may be more influenced by photosynthesis and carbon storage. Aboveground phenology, one of the most widely measured aspects of climate change, may not represent whole-plant phenology and may be a poor indicator of the timing of whole-plant carbon fluxes. Additionally, climate model assumptions that roots and shoots grow at the same time may need to be revised.

The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; van der Linden, E C

2013-01-01

Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities.

The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic

PubMed Central

Bintanja, R.; van der Linden, E. C.

2013-01-01

Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities. PMID:23532038

Global Warming And Meltwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bratu, S.

2012-04-01

In order to find new approaches and new ideas for my students to appreciate the importance of science in their daily life, I proposed a theme for them to debate. They had to search for global warming information and illustrations in the media, and discuss the articles they found in the classroom. This task inspired them to search for new information about this important and timely theme in science. I informed my students that all the best information about global warming and meltwater they found would be used in a poster that would help us to update the knowledge base of the Physics laboratory. I guided them to choose the most eloquent images and significant information. Searching and working to create this poster, the students arrived to better appreciate the importance of science in their daily life and to critically evaluate scientific information transmitted via the media. In the poster we created, one can find images, photos and diagrams and some interesting information: Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected evolution. In the last 100 years, the Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C for the lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C for the highest predictions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and potentially result in expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing decrease of

Climate Variability and Dengue Fever in Warm and Humid Mexico

PubMed Central

Colón-González, Felipe J.; Lake, Iain R.; Bentham, Graham

2011-01-01

Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems. PMID:21540386

From vegetation zones to climatypes: Effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems

Treesearch

N. M. Tchebakova; G. E. Rehfeldt; E. I. Parfenova

2010-01-01

Evidence for global warming over the past 200 years is overwhelming, based on both direct weather observation and indirect physical and biological indicators such as retreating glaciers and snow/ice cover, increasing sea level, and longer growing seasons (IPCC 2001, 2007). On the background of global warming at a rate of 0.6°C during the twentieth century (IPCC 2001),...

Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Lucy; Harrison, Paula A.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2016-01-01

Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick–host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes. PMID:27030039

Medieval Warm Period Archives Preserved in Limpet Shells (Patella Vulgata) From Viking Deposits, United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mobilia, M.; Surge, D.

2008-12-01

The Medieval Warm Period (700-1100 YBP) represents a recent period of warm climate, and as such provides a powerful comparison to today's continuing warming trend. However, the spatial and temporal variability inherent in the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) makes it difficult to differentiate between global climate trends and regional variability. The continued study of this period will allow for the better understanding of temperature variability, both regional and global, during this climate interval. Our study is located in the Orkney Islands, Scotland, which is a critical area to understand climate dynamics. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Gulf Stream heavily influence climate in this region, and the study of climate intervals during the MWP will improve our understanding of the behavior of these climate mechanisms during this interval. Furthermore, the vast majority of the climate archive has been derived from either deep marine or arctic environments. Studying a coastal environment will offer valuable insight into the behavior of maritime climate during the MWP. Estimated seasonal sea surface temperature data were derived through isotopic analysis of limpet shells (Patella vulgata). Analysis of modern shells confirms that growth temperature tracks seasonal variation in ambient water temperature. Preliminary data from MWP shells record a seasonal temperature range comparable to that observed in the modern temperature data. We will extend the range of temperature data from the 10th through 14th centuries to advance our knowledge of seasonal temperature variability during the late Holocene.

Photoperiod constraints on tree phenology, performance and migration in a warming world.

PubMed

Way, Danielle A; Montgomery, Rebecca A

2015-09-01

Increasing temperatures should facilitate the poleward movement of species distributions through a variety of processes, including increasing the growing season length. However, in temperate and boreal latitudes, temperature is not the only cue used by trees to determine seasonality, as changes in photoperiod provide a more consistent, reliable annual signal of seasonality than temperature. Here, we discuss how day length may limit the ability of tree species to respond to climate warming in situ, focusing on the implications of photoperiodic sensing for extending the growing season and affecting plant phenology and growth, as well as the potential role of photoperiod in controlling carbon uptake and water fluxes in forests. We also review whether there are patterns across plant functional types (based on successional strategy, xylem anatomy and leaf morphology) in their sensitivity to photoperiod that we can use to predict which species or groups might be more successful in migrating as the climate warms, or may be more successfully used for forestry and agriculture through assisted migration schemes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Century-Long Warming Trends in the Upper Water Column of Lake Tanganyika.

PubMed

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Hook, Simon; Huttula, Timo; Kotilainen, Pekka; O'Reilly, Catherine M; Peltonen, Anu; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Sarvala, Jouko; Tamatamah, Rashid; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Wehrli, Bernhard; McIntyre, Peter B

2015-01-01

Lake Tanganyika, the deepest and most voluminous lake in Africa, has warmed over the last century in response to climate change. Separate analyses of surface warming rates estimated from in situ instruments, satellites, and a paleolimnological temperature proxy (TEX86) disagree, leaving uncertainty about the thermal sensitivity of Lake Tanganyika to climate change. Here, we use a comprehensive database of in situ temperature data from the top 100 meters of the water column that span the lake's seasonal range and lateral extent to demonstrate that long-term temperature trends in Lake Tanganyika depend strongly on depth, season, and latitude. The observed spatiotemporal variation in surface warming rates accounts for small differences between warming rate estimates from in situ instruments and satellite data. However, after accounting for spatiotemporal variation in temperature and warming rates, the TEX86 paleolimnological proxy yields lower surface temperatures (1.46 °C lower on average) and faster warming rates (by a factor of three) than in situ measurements. Based on the ecology of Thaumarchaeota (the microbes whose biomolecules are involved with generating the TEX86 proxy), we offer a reinterpretation of the TEX86 data from Lake Tanganyika as the temperature of the low-oxygen zone, rather than of the lake surface temperature as has been suggested previously. Our analyses provide a thorough accounting of spatiotemporal variation in warming rates, offering strong evidence that thermal and ecological shifts observed in this massive tropical lake over the last century are robust and in step with global climate change.

Century-Long Warming Trends in the Upper Water Column of Lake Tanganyika

PubMed Central

Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Hook, Simon; Huttula, Timo; Kotilainen, Pekka; O’Reilly, Catherine M.; Peltonen, Anu; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Sarvala, Jouko; Tamatamah, Rashid; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Wehrli, Bernhard; McIntyre, Peter B.

2015-01-01

Lake Tanganyika, the deepest and most voluminous lake in Africa, has warmed over the last century in response to climate change. Separate analyses of surface warming rates estimated from in situ instruments, satellites, and a paleolimnological temperature proxy (TEX86) disagree, leaving uncertainty about the thermal sensitivity of Lake Tanganyika to climate change. Here, we use a comprehensive database of in situ temperature data from the top 100 meters of the water column that span the lake’s seasonal range and lateral extent to demonstrate that long-term temperature trends in Lake Tanganyika depend strongly on depth, season, and latitude. The observed spatiotemporal variation in surface warming rates accounts for small differences between warming rate estimates from in situ instruments and satellite data. However, after accounting for spatiotemporal variation in temperature and warming rates, the TEX86 paleolimnological proxy yields lower surface temperatures (1.46 °C lower on average) and faster warming rates (by a factor of three) than in situ measurements. Based on the ecology of Thaumarchaeota (the microbes whose biomolecules are involved with generating the TEX86 proxy), we offer a reinterpretation of the TEX86 data from Lake Tanganyika as the temperature of the low-oxygen zone, rather than of the lake surface temperature as has been suggested previously. Our analyses provide a thorough accounting of spatiotemporal variation in warming rates, offering strong evidence that thermal and ecological shifts observed in this massive tropical lake over the last century are robust and in step with global climate change. PMID:26147964

Seasonal Variations in Color Preference.

PubMed

Schloss, Karen B; Nelson, Rolf; Parker, Laura; Heck, Isobel A; Palmer, Stephen E

2017-08-01

We investigated how color preferences vary according to season and whether those changes could be explained by the ecological valence theory (EVT). To do so, we assessed the same participants' preferences for the same colors during fall, winter, spring, and summer in the northeastern United States, where there are large seasonal changes in environmental colors. Seasonal differences were most pronounced between fall and the other three seasons. Participants liked fall-associated dark-warm colors-for example, dark-red, dark-orange (brown), dark-yellow (olive), and dark-chartreuse-more during fall than other seasons. The EVT could explain these changes with a modified version of Palmer and Schloss' (2010) weighted affective valence estimate (WAVE) procedure that added an activation term to the WAVE equation. The results indicate that color preferences change according to season, as color-associated objects become more/less activated in the observer. These seasonal changes in color preferences could not be characterized by overall shifts in weights along cone-contrast axes. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Birth seasonality and offspring production in threatened neotropical primates related to climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiederholt, R.; Post, E.

2011-01-01

Given the threatened status of many primate species, the impacts of global warming on primate reproduction and, consequently, population growth should be of concern. We examined relations between climatic variability and birth seasonality, offspring production, and infant sex ratios in two ateline primates, northern muriquis, and woolly monkeys. In both species, the annual birth season was delayed by dry conditions and El Ni??o years, and delayed birth seasons were linked to lower birth rates. Additionally, increased mean annual temperatures were associated with lower birth rates for northern muriquis. Offspring sex ratios varied with climatic conditions in both species, but in different ways: directly in woolly monkeys and indirectly in northern muriquis. Woolly monkeys displayed an increase in the proportion of males among offspring in association with El Ni??o events, whereas in northern muriquis, increases in the proportion of males among offspring were associated with delayed onset of the birth season, which itself was related, although weakly, to warm, dry conditions. These results illustrate that global warming, increased drought frequency, and changes in the frequency of El Ni??o events could limit primate reproductive output, threatening the persistence and recovery of ateline primate populations. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The hydroclimatological response to global warming based on the dynamically downscaled climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Felippo

2010-05-01

Given the discernable evidences of climate changes due to human activity, there is a growing demand for the reliable climate change scenario in response to future emission forcing. One of the most significant impacts of climate changes can be that on the hydrological process. Changes in the seasonality and increase in the low and high rainfall extremes can severely influence the water balance of river basin, with serious consequences for societies and ecosystems. In fact, recent studies have reported that East Asia including the Korean peninsula is regarded to be a highly vulnerability region under global warming, in particular for water resources. As an attempt accurately assess the impact of climate change over Korea, we performed a downscaling of the ECAHM5-MPI/OM global projection under the A1B emission scenario for the period 1971-2100 using the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system. Physically based long-term (130 years) fine-scale (20 km) climate information is appropriate for analyzing the detailed structure of the hydroclimatological response to climate change. Changes in temperature and precipitation are translated to the hydrological condition in a direct or indirect way. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variations and a complicated spatial pattern. While changes in total precipitation do not show any relevant trend, the change patterns in daily precipitation clearly show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation. The increase of temperature enhances the evapotranspiration, and hence the actual water stress becomes more pronounced in the future climate. Precipitation, snow, and runoff changes show the relevant topographical modulation under global warming. This study clearly demonstrates the importance of a refined topography for improving the accuracy of the local climatology. Improved accuracy of regional climate projection could lead to an enhanced reliability of the

The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cross, E.R.; Hyams, K.C.

1996-07-01

The distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia is thought to be highly dependent on temperature and relative humidity. A discriminant analysis model based on weather data and reported vector surveys was developed to predict the seasonal and geographic distribution of P. papatasi in this region. To simulate global warming, temperature values for 115 weather stations were increased by 1 {degrees}C, 3{degrees}C, and 5{degrees}C, and the outcome variable coded as unknown in the model. Probability of occurrence values were then predicted for each location with a weather station. Stations with positive probability of occurrence values for May, June, July, andmore » August were considered locations where two or more life cycles of P. papatasi could occur and which could support endemic transmission of leishmaniasis and sandfly fever. Among 115 weather stations, 71 (62%) would be considered endemic with current temperature conditions; 14 (12%) additional station could become endemic with an increase of 1 {degrees}C; 17 (15%) more than a 3{degrees}C increase; and 12 (10%) more (all but one station) with a t{degrees}C increase. In addition to increased geographic distribution, seasonality of disease transmission could be extended throughout 12 months of the year in 7 (6%) locations with at least a 3{degrees}C rise in temperature and in 29 (25%) locations with a 5{degrees}C rise. 15 refs., 4 figs.« less

Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Riparian Forest Buffers, Warm-Season and Cool-Season Grass Filters, and Crop Fields

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing denitrification rates in riparian buffers may be trading the problem of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution of surface waters for atmospheric deterioration and increased global warming potential because denitrification produces nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas also involved in stratosphe...

Spatiotemporal properties of growing season indices during 1961-2010 and possible association with agroclimatological regionalization of dominant crops in Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ci, Hui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Xiao, Mingzhong; Liu, Lin

2016-08-01

Variations of frost days and growing season length (GSL) have been drawing increasing attention due to their impact on agriculture. The Xinjiang region in China is climatically an arid region and plays an important role in agriculture development. In this study, the GSL and frost events are analyzed in both space and time, based on the daily minimum, mean and maximum air surface temperature data covering a period of 1961-2010. Results indicate that: (1) a significant lengthening of GSL is detected during 1961-2010 in Xinjiang, China. The increasing rate of GSL over Xinjiang is about 2.5 days per decade. Besides, the starting time of growing season is 0.7 days earlier per decade and the ending time is 1.6 days later per decade. Generally, GSL in southern Xinjiang has larger increasing magnitude when compared to other regions of Xinjiang; (2) longer GSL and larger changing magnitude of growing season start (GSS), growing season end (GSE) and GSL in southern Xinjiang implies higher sensitivity of the growing season response to climate warming. Besides, GSL is in close relation with latitude, and higher latitude usually corresponds to later start and earlier end of growing season, and hence shorter GSL. In general, a northward increase of 1° latitude triggers an 8-day delay of the starting time of growing season, 6-day advance of the ending time of growing season, and thus the GSL is 14 days shorter; (3) GSL under different rates can reflect light and heat resources over Xinjiang. The GSL related to 80 % guarantee rate is 5-14 days shorter than the long-term annual mean GSL; (4) Lengthening of GSL has the potential to increase agricultural production. However, negative influences by climate warming, such as enhanced evapotranspiration, increasing weeds, insects, and pathogen-mediated plant diseases, should also be considered in planning, management and development of agriculture in Xinjiang.

Organization of vertical shear of wind and daily variability of monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouda, K. C.; Goswami, P.

2016-10-01

Very little is known about the mechanisms that govern the day to day variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall; in the current dominant view, the daily rainfall is essentially a result of chaotic dynamics. Most studies in the past have thus considered monsoon in terms of its seasonal (June-September) or monthly rainfall. We show here that the daily rainfall in June is associated with vertical shear of horizontal winds at specific scales. While vertical shear had been used in the past to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall, rarely any effort has been made to examine daily rainfall. Our work shows that, at least during June, the daily rainfall variability of ISM rainfall is associated with a large scale dynamical coherence in the sense that the vertical shear averaged over large spatial extents are significantly correlated with area-averaged daily rainfall. An important finding from our work is the existence of a clearly delineated monsoon shear domain (MSD) with strong coherence between area-averaged shear and area-averaged daily rainfall in June; this association of daily rainfall is not significant with shear over only MSD. Another important feature is that the association between daily rainfall and vertical shear is present only during the month of June. Thus while ISM (June-September) is a single seasonal system, it is important to consider the dynamics and variation of June independently of the seasonal ISM rainfall. The association between large-scale organization of circulation and daily rainfall is suggested as a basis for attempting prediction of daily rainfall by ensuring accurate simulation of wind shear.

0-6613 : evaluate binder and mixture aging for warm mix asphalt.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Warm mix asphalt (WMA) technologies employ reduced : mixing and placement temperatures, thereby allowing : reduced fuel consumption, enhanced compaction, : increased haul distances, and an extended paving : season. However, there have been issues of ...

Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.

2013-12-01

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate, of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and business-as-usual-future Penman-Monteith (i.e. physically-based) PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 14 modern global climate models. The %-change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET %-change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor pressure deficit and increasing Clausius-Clapeyron slope.) This direct-warming term very accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5-6% per degree (related to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the inter-model spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative-humidity, and windspeed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET %-change fields.

Physiological response curves reveal differences among season advancement and timing of grazing experimental treatments in a coastal Alaskan wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leffler, A. J.; Kelsey, K.; Beard, K. H.; Choi, R. T.; Welker, J. M.

2016-12-01

The phenology of northern ecosystems is rapidly changing as high latitude regions warm. Spring green-up has advanced 1-3 days per decade since the early 1980's and sea ice retreat is likely to further accelerate the arrival of spring in coastal Alaska. One result of spring advancement is a phenological mismatch with the arrival of migratory geese that bread in the region. As green-up advances, geese arrive into a phenologically older system where vegetation has a higher C:N ratio than younger grasses with potential consequences for goose nutrition and C and N cycling. In 2014 and 2015 we established a season advancement X timing of grazing experiment to examine the ecosystem consequences of this mismatch. We used a LI-Cor 8100 automated, chamber-based C flux system to monitor hourly net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in eight plots: four were warmed in June to advance the growing season, four received ambient temperatures; two each experienced early, typical, late, or no grazing. The experiment is replicated six times, but the automated system is capable of measuring only one block; other blocks are measured twice weekly with a portable system. We fit physiological light response curves to weekly data and used incident sunlight to estimate daily NEE. Results suggest that daily carbon uptake ranged from ca. 0.6 to 4.5 g m-2 d-1 in the different treatments. Carbon uptake in the season advancement plots was lower than in the ambient plots by ca. 0.5 g m-2 d-1 averaged during the summer. Delaying grazing into the later season, the expectation of climate change, greatly increased NEE to 4.5 g m-2 d-1, a value much greater than the typical grazing period in 2015. Completely eliminating grazing from the system resulted in NEE of 2.9 g m-2 d-1. Differences were likely driven by warmer soils enhancing respiration, removal of photosynthetic biomass, and grazing maintaining tissue in a young, highly photosynthetic form. Overall our results suggest that timing of grazing in the

Environmental DNA (eDNA) Detection Probability Is Influenced by Seasonal Activity of Organisms

PubMed Central

de Souza, Lesley S.; Godwin, James C.; Renshaw, Mark A.; Larson, Eric

2016-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) holds great promise for conservation applications like the monitoring of invasive or imperiled species, yet this emerging technique requires ongoing testing in order to determine the contexts over which it is effective. For example, little research to date has evaluated how seasonality of organism behavior or activity may influence detection probability of eDNA. We applied eDNA to survey for two highly imperiled species endemic to the upper Black Warrior River basin in Alabama, US: the Black Warrior Waterdog (Necturus alabamensis) and the Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus). Importantly, these species have contrasting patterns of seasonal activity, with N. alabamensis more active in the cool season (October-April) and S. depressus more active in the warm season (May-September). We surveyed sites historically occupied by these species across cool and warm seasons over two years with replicated eDNA water samples, which were analyzed in the laboratory using species-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. We then used occupancy estimation with detection probability modeling to evaluate both the effects of landscape attributes on organism presence and season of sampling on detection probability of eDNA. Importantly, we found that season strongly affected eDNA detection probability for both species, with N. alabamensis having higher eDNA detection probabilities during the cool season and S. depressus have higher eDNA detection probabilities during the warm season. These results illustrate the influence of organismal behavior or activity on eDNA detection in the environment and identify an important role for basic natural history in designing eDNA monitoring programs. PMID:27776150

[Effects of diurnal warming on soil N2O emission in soybean field].

PubMed

Hu, Zheng-Hua; Zhou, Ying-Ping; Cui, Hai-Ling; Chen, Shu-Tao; Xiao, Qi-Tao; Liu, Yan

2013-08-01

To investigate the impact of experimental warming on N2O emission from soil of soybean field, outdoor experiments with simulating diurnal warming were conducted, and static dark chamber-gas chromatograph method was used to measure N2O emission fluxes. Results indicated that: the diurnal warming did not change the seasonal pattern of N2O emissions from soil. In the whole growing season, comparing to the control treatment (CK), the warming treatment (T) significantly enhanced the N2O flux and the cumulative amount of N2O by 17.31% (P = 0.019), and 20.27% (P = 0.005), respectively. The significant correlations were found between soil N2O emission and soil temperature, moisture. The temperature sensitivity values of soil N2O emission under CK and T treatments were 3.75 and 4.10, respectively. In whole growing stage, T treatment significantly increased the crop aboveground and total biomass, the nitrate reductase activity, and total nitrogen in leaves, while significantly decreased NO3(-) -N content in leaves. T treatment significantly increased soil NO3(-) -N content, but had no significant effect on soil organic carbon and total nitrogen contents. The results of this study suggested that diurnal warming enhanced N2O emission from soil in soybean field.

Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmiento, J. L.; Slater, R.; Barber, R.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Hirst, A. C.; Kleypas, J.; Matear, R.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Monfray, P.; Soldatov, V.; Spall, S. A.; Stouffer, R.

2004-09-01

We examine six different coupled climate model simulations to determine the ocean biological response to climate warming between the beginning of the industrial revolution and 2050. We use vertical velocity, maximum winter mixed layer depth, and sea ice cover to define six biomes. Climate warming leads to a contraction of the highly productive marginal sea ice biome by 42% in the Northern Hemisphere and 17% in the Southern Hemisphere, and leads to an expansion of the low productivity permanently stratified subtropical gyre biome by 4.0% in the Northern Hemisphere and 9.4% in the Southern Hemisphere. In between these, the subpolar gyre biome expands by 16% in the Northern Hemisphere and 7% in the Southern Hemisphere, and the seasonally stratified subtropical gyre contracts by 11% in both hemispheres. The low-latitude (mostly coastal) upwelling biome area changes only modestly. Vertical stratification increases, which would be expected to decrease nutrient supply everywhere, but increase the growing season length in high latitudes. We use satellite ocean color and climatological observations to develop an empirical model for predicting chlorophyll from the physical properties of the global warming simulations. Four features stand out in the response to global warming: (1) a drop in chlorophyll in the North Pacific due primarily to retreat of the marginal sea ice biome, (2) a tendency toward an increase in chlorophyll in the North Atlantic due to a complex combination of factors, (3) an increase in chlorophyll in the Southern Ocean due primarily to the retreat of and changes at the northern boundary of the marginal sea ice zone, and (4) a tendency toward a decrease in chlorophyll adjacent to the Antarctic continent due primarily to freshening within the marginal sea ice zone. We use three different primary production algorithms to estimate the response of primary production to climate warming based on our estimated chlorophyll concentrations. The three algorithms give

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C.; Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J.; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Henderson, John M.; Murphy, Patrick C.; Goodrich, Jordan P.; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D.; Kimball, John S.; Lipson, David A.; Oechel, Walter C.

2016-01-01

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y-1, ∼25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget.

PubMed

Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C; Miller, Charles E; Dinardo, Steven J; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y-W; Henderson, John M; Murphy, Patrick C; Goodrich, Jordan P; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D; Kimball, John S; Lipson, David A; Oechel, Walter C

2016-01-05

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥ 50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y(-1), ∼ 25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼ 6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

Seasonality and growth patterns using isotope sclerochronology in shells of the Pliocene scallop Chesapecten madisonius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goewert, Ann E.; Surge, Donna

2008-10-01

Growth lines and variation in oxygen and carbon isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) in shells of the Pliocene scallop Chesapecten madisonius preserve seasonal chronologies of biological and environmental change. This study evaluated whether (1) prominent growth lines were formed annually, and (2) growth rates estimated using isotope sclerochronology were comparable to rates estimated using visual inspection (measuring the width between external growth lines). We compared both techniques for estimating growth rates and age on three late to mid-Pliocene C. madisonius shells. The first approach located prominent growth lines on the δ18O time series, and differentiated between annual and non-annual (disturbance) growth lines. The second approach assumed all prominent lines were annual. This comparison showed that visual inspection underestimated growth rates and overestimated age. Seasonal timing of annual growth line formation using isotope sclerochronology provided unexpected results. Because this region fell within the warm-temperate paleobiogeographic province, we predicted annual lines formed during summers (most negative δ18O values). Instead, annual growth lines coincided with the most positive δ18O values (winter), typical of bivalves from cold-temperate regions. Moreover, shells recorded seasonal temperatures ranging from 3.2-20.8°C, a range lower than the thermal regime defined for warm-temperate environments (8-25°C). Possibly, the Sea Slope Gyre, which mixed eddies and cold filaments of the Labrador Current and warm waters of the Gulf Stream, penetrated the warm-temperate environment in this region. Alternatively, warm-water fauna from the zoogeographic Carolinian subprovince migrated northward and endured by virtue of warm summer temperatures. Regardless of the explanation, our findings provide a glimpse of mid-latitude seasonal temperature range for a warm climate episode during the mid-Pliocene.

Impacts of seasonal air and soil temperatures on photosynthesis in Scots pine trees.

PubMed

Strand, Martin; Lundmark, Tomas; Söderbergh, Ingrid; Mellander, Per-Erik

2002-08-01

Seasonal courses of light-saturated rate of net photosynthesis (A360) and stomatal conductance (gs) were examined in detached 1-year-old needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) from early April to mid-November. To evaluate the effects of soil frost and low soil temperatures on gas exchange, the extent and duration of soil frost, as well as the onset of soil warming, were manipulated in the field. During spring, early summer and autumn, the patterns of A360 and gs in needles from the control and warm-soil plots were generally strongly related to daily mean air temperatures and the frequency of severe frost. The warm-soil treatment had little effect on gas exchange, although mean soil temperature in the warm-soil plot was 3.8 degrees C higher than in the control plot during spring and summer, indicating that A360 and gs in needles from control trees were not limited by low soil temperature alone. In contrast, prolonged exposure to soil temperatures slightly above 0 degrees C severely restricted recovery of A360 and especially gs in needles from the cold-soil treatment during spring and early summer; however, full recovery of both A360 and gs occurred in late summer. We conclude that inhibition of A360 by low soil temperatures is related to both stomatal closure and effects on the biochemistry of photosynthesis, the relative importance of which appeared to vary during spring and early summer. During the autumn, soil temperatures as low as 8 degrees C did not affect either A360 or gs.

Seasonal soil moisture patterns in contrasting habitats in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

EPA Science Inventory

Changing seasonal soil moisture regimes caused by global warming may alter plant community composition in sensitive habitats such as wetlands and oak savannas. To evaluate such changes, an understanding of typical seasonal soil moisture regimes is necessary. The primary objective...

Generating synthetic daily precipitation realizations for seasonal precipitation forecasts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Synthetic weather generation models that depend on statistics of past weather observations are often limited in their applications to issues that depend upon historical weather characteristics. Enhancing these models to take advantage of increasingly available and skillful seasonal climate outlook p...

Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in Southeast Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neal, E.G.; Todd, Walter M.; Coffeen, C.

2002-01-01

This study identified and examined differences in Southeast Alaskan streamflow patterns between the two most recent modes of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Identifying relationships between the PDO and specific regional phenomena is important for understanding climate variability, interpreting historical hydrological variability, and improving water-resources forecasting. Stream discharge data from six watersheds in Southeast Alaska were divided into cold-PDO (1947-1976) and warm-PDO (1977-1998) subsets. For all watersheds, the average annual streamflows during cold-PDO years were not significantly different from warm-PDO years. Monthly and seasonal discharges, however, did differ significantly between the two subsets, with the warm-PDO winter flows being typically higher than the cold-PDO winter flows and the warm-PDO summer flows being typically lower than the cold-PDO flows. These results were consistent with and driven by observed temperature and snowfall patterns for the region. During warm-PDO winters, precipitation fell as rain and ran-off immediately, causing higher than normal winter streamflow. During cold-PDO winters, precipitation was stored as snow and ran off during the summer snowmelt, creating greater summer streamflows. The Mendenhall River was unique in that it experienced higher flows for all seasons during the warm-PDO relative to the cold-PDO. The large amount of Mendenhall River discharge caused by glacial melt during warm-PDO summers offset any flow reduction caused by lack of snow accumulation during warm-PDO winters. The effect of the PDO on Southeast Alaskan watersheds differs from other regions of the Pacific Coast of North America in that monthly/seasonal discharge patterns changed dramatically with the switch in PDO modes but annual discharge did not. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

2016-02-01

In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, extreme warm events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold extremes were greater than those of warm extremes. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days

Estimating seasonal evapotranspiration from temporal satellite images

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singh, Ramesh K.; Liu, Shu-Guang; Tieszen, Larry L.; Suyker, Andrew E.; Verma, Shashi B.

2012-01-01

Estimating seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) has many applications in water resources planning and management, including hydrological and ecological modeling. Availability of satellite remote sensing images is limited due to repeat cycle of satellite or cloud cover. This study was conducted to determine the suitability of different methods namely cubic spline, fixed, and linear for estimating seasonal ET from temporal remotely sensed images. Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) model in conjunction with the wet METRIC (wMETRIC), a modified version of the METRIC model, was used to estimate ET on the days of satellite overpass using eight Landsat images during the 2001 crop growing season in Midwest USA. The model-estimated daily ET was in good agreement (R2 = 0.91) with the eddy covariance tower-measured daily ET. The standard error of daily ET was 0.6 mm (20%) at three validation sites in Nebraska, USA. There was no statistically significant difference (P > 0.05) among the cubic spline, fixed, and linear methods for computing seasonal (July–December) ET from temporal ET estimates. Overall, the cubic spline resulted in the lowest standard error of 6 mm (1.67%) for seasonal ET. However, further testing of this method for multiple years is necessary to determine its suitability.

Diagnosing Warm Season Precipitation Over the GCIP Region from a GCM and Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John; Robertson, Franklin R.

2000-01-01

A 45 year simulation using a global general circulation model (GCM), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model v.3 (CCM3), forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST), and 39 years of global National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses were analyzed to determine Mississippi River basin warm season (May, June, July or MJJ) wet and dry year composites in the water and energy budgets. Years that have increased MJJ soil moisture over the GEWEX (Global Water and Energy Experiment) Continental Interior Project (GCIP) region also have high precipitation, lower surface temperature, decreased Bowen ratio, and reduced 500 hPa geopotential height (essentially reduced MJJ ridging). The reverse is true for years that have reduced MJJ soil moisture. Wet years are also accompanied by a general increase in moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central U.S. There is some indication (though weaker) that soil moisture may then affect precipitation and other quantities and be affected in turn by 500 hPa geopotential heights. The correlations are somewhat low, however, demonstrating the difficulty in providing definitive physical links between the remote and local effects. Analysis of two individual years with an extreme wet event (1993) and an extreme dry event (1988) yields the same general relationships as with the wet and dry composites. The composites from this study are currently serving as the basis for a series of experiments aimed at determining the predictability of the land surface and remote SST on the Mississippi River basin and other large-scale river basins.

On statistical irregularity of stratospheric warming occurrence during northern winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savenkova, Elena N.; Gavrilov, Nikolai M.; Pogoreltsev, Alexander I.

2017-10-01

Statistical analysis of dates of warming events observed during the years 1981-2016 at different stratospheric altitudes reveals their non-uniform distributions during northern winter months with maxima at the beginning of January, at the end of January - beginning of February and at the end of February. Climatology of zonal-mean zonal wind, deviations of temperature from its winter-averaged values, and planetary wave (PW) characteristics at high and middle northern latitudes in the altitude range from the ground up to 60 km is studied using the database of meteorological reanalysis MERRA. Climatological temperature deviations averaged over the 60-90°N latitudinal bands reveal cooler and warmer layers descending due to seasonal changes during the polar night. PW amplitudes and upward Eliassen-Palm fluxes averaged over 36 years have periodical maxima with the main maximum at the beginning of January at altitudes 40-50 km. During the above-mentioned intervals of more frequent occurrence of stratospheric warming events, maxima of PW amplitudes and Eliassen-Palm fluxes, also minima of eastward winds in the high-latitude northern stratosphere have been found. Climatological intra-seasonal irregularities of stratospheric warming dates could indicate reiterating phases of stratospheric vacillations in different years.

Responses of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes to short-term experimental warming and nitrogen enrichment in an Alpine meadow, northern Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Zong, Ning; Shi, Peili; Jiang, Jing; Song, Minghua; Xiong, Dingpeng; Ma, Weiling; Fu, Gang; Zhang, Xianzhou; Shen, Zhenxi

2013-01-01

Over the past decades, the Tibetan Plateau has experienced pronounced warming, yet the extent to which warming will affect alpine ecosystems depends on how warming interacts with other influential global change factors, such as nitrogen (N) deposition. A long-term warming and N manipulation experiment was established to investigate the interactive effects of warming and N deposition on alpine meadow. Open-top chambers were used to simulate warming. N addition, warming, N addition × warming, and a control were set up. In OTCs, daytime air and soil temperature were warmed by 2.0°C and 1.6°C above ambient conditions, but soil moisture was decreased by 4.95 m(3) m(-3). N addition enhanced ecosystem respiration (Reco); nevertheless, warming significantly decreased Reco. The decline of Reco resulting from warming was cancelled out by N addition in late growing season. Our results suggested that N addition enhanced Reco by increasing soil N availability and plant production, whereas warming decreased Reco through lowering soil moisture, soil N supply potential, and suppression of plant activity. Furthermore, season-specific responses of Reco indicated that warming and N deposition caused by future global change may have complicated influence on carbon cycles in alpine ecosystems.

Responses of Ecosystem CO2 Fluxes to Short-Term Experimental Warming and Nitrogen Enrichment in an Alpine Meadow, Northern Tibet Plateau

PubMed Central

Shi, Peili; Jiang, Jing; Song, Minghua; Xiong, Dingpeng; Ma, Weiling; Fu, Gang; Zhang, Xianzhou; Shen, Zhenxi

2013-01-01

Over the past decades, the Tibetan Plateau has experienced pronounced warming, yet the extent to which warming will affect alpine ecosystems depends on how warming interacts with other influential global change factors, such as nitrogen (N) deposition. A long-term warming and N manipulation experiment was established to investigate the interactive effects of warming and N deposition on alpine meadow. Open-top chambers were used to simulate warming. N addition, warming, N addition × warming, and a control were set up. In OTCs, daytime air and soil temperature were warmed by 2.0°C and 1.6°C above ambient conditions, but soil moisture was decreased by 4.95 m3 m−3. N addition enhanced ecosystem respiration (Reco); nevertheless, warming significantly decreased Reco. The decline of Reco resulting from warming was cancelled out by N addition in late growing season. Our results suggested that N addition enhanced Reco by increasing soil N availability and plant production, whereas warming decreased Reco through lowering soil moisture, soil N supply potential, and suppression of plant activity. Furthermore, season-specific responses of Reco indicated that warming and N deposition caused by future global change may have complicated influence on carbon cycles in alpine ecosystems. PMID:24459432

The effect of nitrogen deposition rather than warming on CH4 flux in alpine meadows depends on precipitation variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Genxu, W.

2017-12-01

Uncertainties remain regarding the effects of climate warming and increasing nitrogen (N) deposition on GHG flux in alpine grasslands due to a lack of knowledge about how hydrological characteristics control GHGs fluxes. Therefore, a simulated warming and N fertilization experiment was conducted in a non-wetland (alpine meadow, AM) and a wetland (alpine swamp meadow, SM) of a permafrost region. We measured and analysed the CH4 and N2O fluxes of each treatment during two contrasting hydrological growing seasons. The results showed that: (i) warming increased the CH4 uptake in the AM but had no effect in the SM, and warming increased the N2O emissions from the AM and resulted in a change of the SM from a N2O sink into a source; (ii) N fertilization increased the CH4 uptake of the AM during the dry growing season, and had no effect on the CH4 and N2O fluxes of the SM; and (iii) the interaction between warming and N fertilization increased the CH4 uptake of the AM over the two growing seasons while increasing the CH4 uptake and N2O emissions of the SM during the dry growing season. Our results suggest that (i) the GHG flux of wetland ecosystems is more sensitive to precipitation variations than that of non-wetlands and (ii) precipitation controls the CH4 flux response to increasing N deposition of these alpine meadows.

Mechanisms of elevation-dependent warming over complex terrain in high-resolution simulations of regional climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minder, J. R.; Letcher, T.; Liu, C.

2016-12-01

Numerous observational and modeling studies have suggested that over mountainous terrain certain elevations can experience systematically enhanced rates of near-surface climate warming relative to the surrounding region, a phenomenon referred to as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). In many of these studies high-elevation locations were found to experience the fastest warming rates. A variety of physical mechanisms for EDW have been proposed but there is no consensus as to the dominant cause. We examine EDW in regional climate model (RCM) simulations with very high horizontal resolution (4-km horizontal grid). The simulation domain centers on the Rocky Mountains and intermountain west of the United States. Climate change simulations are conducted using the "pseudo global warming" framework to focus on the regional response to large-scale thermodynamic and radiative climate changes representative of mid-century anthropogenic global climate change. Substantial EDW is found in these simulations. Warming varies with elevation by up to 1°C depending on the season considered. The structure of EDW is only weakly sensitive to variations in horizontal grid spacing ranging from 4 to 36 km. The snow-albedo feedback (SAF) plays a major role in causing the simulated EDW. The elevation band of maximum warming varies seasonally, mostly following the margin of the seasonal snowpack where snow cover and albedo reductions are maximized under climate warming. Additional simulations where the SAF is artificially suppressed demonstrate that EDW variations of up to 0.6°C can be attributed to the SAF. Simulations with a suppressed SAF still exhibit EDW variations up to 0.8°C that must be explained by other mechanisms. This remaining EDW shows a near linear increase in warming with elevation in most months and does not appear to be inherited from the profile of large-scale free-tropospheric warming. Simple theoretical calculations suggest that the non-linear dependence of surface

Global warming reduces plant reproductive output for temperate multi-inflorescence species on the Tibetan plateau.

PubMed

Liu, Yinzhan; Mu, Junpeng; Niklas, Karl J; Li, Guoyong; Sun, Shucun

2012-07-01

• Temperature is projected to increase more during the winter than during the summer in cold regions. The effects of winter warming on reproductive effort have not been examined for temperate plant species. • Here, we report the results of experimentally induced seasonal winter warming (0.4 and 2.4°C increases in growing and nongrowing seasons, respectively, using warmed and ambient open-top chambers in a Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow) for nine indeterminate-growing species producing multiple (single-flowered or multi-flowered) inflorescences and three determinate-growing species producing single inflorescences after a 3-yr period of warming. • Warming reduced significantly flower number and seed production per plant for all nine multi-inflorescence species, but not for the three single-inflorescence species. Warming had an insignificant effect on the fruit to flower number ratio, seed size and seed number per fruit among species. The reduction in seed production was largely attributable to the decline in flower number per plant. The flowering onset time was unaffected for nine of the 12 species. Therefore, the decline in flower production and seed production in response to winter warming probably reflects a physiological response (e.g. metabolic changes associated with flower production). • Collectively, the data indicate that global warming may reduce flower and seed production for temperate herbaceous species and will probably have a differential effect on single- vs multi-inflorescence species. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics and their importance to the seasonal prediction problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tennant, Warren J.; Hewitson, Bruce C.

2002-07-01

Daily station rainfall data in South Africa from 1936 to 1999 are combined into homogeneous rainfall regions using Ward's clustering method. Various rainfall characteristics are calculated for the summer season, defined as December to February. These include seasonal rainfall total, region-average number of station rain days exceeding 1 and 20 mm, region-average of periods between rain days at stations >1 and >20 mm, region-average of wet spell length (sequential days of station rainfall >1 and >20 mm), correlation of daily station rainfall within a region and correlation of seasonal station rainfall anomalies within a region.Rank-ordered rainfall characteristic data generally form an s-shaped curve, and significance testing of discontinuities in these curves suggests that normal rainfall conditions in South Africa consist of a combined middle three quintiles separated from the outer quintiles, rather than the traditional middle tercile.The relationships between the various rainfall characteristics show that seasons with a high total rainfall generally have a higher number of heavy rain days (>20 mm) and not necessarily an increase in light rain days. The length of the period between rain days has a low correlation to season totals, demonstrating that seasons with a high total rainfall may still contain prolonged dry periods. These additional rainfall characteristics are important to end-users, and the analysis undertaken here offers a valuable starting point for seeking physical relationships between rainfall characteristics and the general circulation. Preliminary studies show that the vertical mean wind is related to rainfall characteristics in South Africa. Given that general circulation models capture this part of the circulation adequately, seasonal forecasts of rainfall characteristics become plausible.

The effects of seasonality on host-bat fly ecological networks in a temperate mountain cave.

PubMed

Rivera-García, Karina D; Sandoval-Ruiz, César A; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Schondube, Jorge E

2017-04-01

Changes in the specialization of parasite-host interactions will be influenced by variations in host species composition. We evaluated this hypothesis by comparing the composition of bats and bat flies within a roost cave over one annual. Five bat and five bat fly species occupied the cave over the course of the study. Bat species composition was 40% different in the rainy season compared with the dry-cold and dry-warm seasons. Despite the incorporation of three new bat species into the cave during the rainy season, bat fly species composition was not affected by seasonality, since the bats that arrived in the rainy season only contributed one new bat fly species at a low prevalence. Bat-bat fly ecological networks were less specialized in the rainy season compared with the dry-cold and dry-warm seasons because of the increase of host overlap among bat fly species during this season. This study suggests that seasonality promote: (1) differences in host species composition, and (2) a reduction in the specialization of host-parasite ecological networks.

Seasonality of Forcing by Carbonaceous Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habib, G.; Bond, T.; Rasch, P. J.; Coleman, D.

2006-12-01

Aerosols can influence the energy balance of Earth-Atmosphere system with profound effect on regional climate. Atmospheric processes, such as convection, scavenging, wet and dry deposition, govern the lifetime and location of aerosol; emissions affect its quantity and location. Both affect climate forcing. Here we investigate the effect of seasonality in emissions and atmospheric processes on radiative forcing by carbonaceous aerosols, focusing on aerosol from fossil fuel and biofuel. Because aerosol lifetime is seasonal, ignoring the seasonality of sources such as residential biofuel may introduce a bias in aerosol burden and therefore in predicted climate forcing. We present a global emission inventory of carbonaceous aerosols with seasonality, and simulate atmospheric concentrations using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). We discuss where and when the seasonality of emissions and atmospheric processes has strong effects on atmospheric burden, lifetime, climate forcing and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Previous work has shown that aerosol forcing is higher in summer than in winter, and has identified the importance of aerosol above cloud in determining black carbon forcing. We show that predicted cloud height is a very important factor in determining normalized radiative forcing (forcing per mass), especially in summer. This can affect the average summer radiative forcing by nearly 50%. Removal by cloud droplets is the dominant atmospheric cleansing mechanism for carbonaceous aerosols. We demonstrate the modeled seasonality of removal processes and compare the importance of scavenging by warm and cold clouds. Both types of clouds contribute significantly to aerosol removal. We estimate uncertainty in direct radiative forcing due to scavenging by tagging the aerosol which has experienced cloud interactions. Finally, seasonal variations offer an opportunity to assess modeled processes when a single process dominates variability. We identify regions where aerosol

Contributions of radiative factors to enhanced dryland warming over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yanting; Guan, Xiaodan; Yu, Haipeng; Xie, Yongkun; Jin, Hongchun

2017-08-01

Enhanced near-surface atmospheric warming has occurred over East Asia in recent decades, especially in drylands. Although local factors have been confirmed to provide considerable contributions to this warming, such factors have not been sufficiently analyzed. In this study, we extracted the radiatively forced temperature (RFT) associated with the built-up greenhouse gases, aerosol emission, and various other radiative forcing over East Asia and found a close relationship between RFT and CO2. In addition, using climate model experiments, we explored the responses of temperature changes to black carbon (BC), CO2, and SO4 and found that the enhanced dryland warming induced by CO2 had the largest magnitude and was strengthened by the warming effect of BC. Moreover, the sensitivity of daily maximum and minimum temperature changes to BC, CO2, and SO4 was examined. It showed asymmetric responses of daily maximum and minimum temperature to radiative factors, which led to an obvious change of diurnal temperature range (DTR), especially in drylands. The DTR's response to CO2 is the most significant. Therefore, CO2 not only plays a dominant role in enhanced warming but also greatly affects the decrease of DTR in drylands. However, the mechanisms of these radiative factors' effects in the process of DTR change are not clear and require more investigation.

Seasonality of fertility measured by physical activity traits in Holstein cows.

PubMed

Ismael, Ahmed; Strandberg, Erling; Berglund, Britt; Fogh, Anders; Løvendahl, Peter

2016-04-01

Seasonality of female fertility traits, including the interval from calving to first high activity (CFHA), duration of high activity episode (DHA), and strength of high activity episode (SHA) of first estrus, were studied. The physical activity traits were derived from electronic activity tags for 20,794 Holstein cows in 135 commercial Holstein herds in Denmark. Data were categorized in 3 ways: (1) into 4 seasons of calving: winter (January-March), spring (April-June), summer (July-September), and fall (October-December); (2) into 2 seasons: a cold season (October-March) and a warm season (April-September); and (3) into an increasing light season (IL; January-June), where daylight hours gradually increased, and a decreasing light season (DL; July-December), where daylight hours gradually decreased. At the phenotypic level, least squares means of CFHA were highest at 55d for cows calving in December and lowest at 31d for cows calving in September. The highest least squares means of DHA and SHA were recorded for cows calving in November and lowest for cows calving in May and June. Genetic parameters for all traits were estimated using average information-REML in a bivariate animal model that treated the same trait in different calving seasons as different traits. Heritability estimates for CFHA were highest for the winter season (0.13) and low for the other seasons (0.03-0.04), whereas heritability estimates for DHA and SHA were lowest for winter and highest for fall. Heritability estimates for CFHA for the cold season (0.17) was higher than that for the warm season (0.10). Heritability estimates of CFHA for the IL season (0.12) was higher than for the DL season (0.07), but the opposite pattern was found for DHA and SHA. Genetic correlations (rA) of CFHA between winter and summer (rA=0.34 ± 0.27), and winter and fall (rA=0.65 ± 0.20) were significantly lower than unity. The corresponding correlations of DHA and SHA between seasons were all close to unity, except

Water relations of baobab trees (Adansonia spp. L.) during the rainy season: does stem water buffer daily water deficits?

PubMed

Chapotin, Saharah Moon; Razanameharizaka, Juvet H; Holbrook, N Michele

2006-06-01

Baobab trees are often cited in the literature as water-storing trees, yet few studies have examined this assumption. We assessed the role of stored water in buffering daily water deficits in two species of baobabs (Adansonia rubrostipa Jum. and H. Perrier and Adansonia za Baill.) in a tropical dry forest in Madagascar. We found no lag in the daily onset of sap flow between the base and the crown of the tree. Some night-time sap flow occurred, but this was more consistent with a pattern of seasonal stem water replenishment than with diurnal usage. Intrinsic capacitance of both leaf and stem tissue (0.07-0.08 and 1.1-1.43 MPa(-1), respectively) was high, yet the amount of water that could be withdrawn before turgor loss was small because midday leaf and stem water potentials (WPs) were near the turgor-loss points. Stomatal conductance was high in the daytime but then declined rapidly, suggesting an embolism-avoidance strategy. Although the xylem of distal branches was relatively vulnerable to cavitation (P50: 1.1-1.7 MPa), tight stomatal control and minimum WPs near--1.0 MPa maintained native embolism levels at 30-65%. Stem morphology and anatomy restrict water movement between storage tissues and the conductive pathway, making stored-water usage more appropriate to longer-term water deficits than as a buffer against daily water deficits.

Five years of phenology observations from a mixed-grass prairie exposed to warming and elevated CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been steadily increasing since the Industrial Era and contribute to concurrent increases in global temperatures. Many observational studies suggest climate warming alone contributes to a longer growing season. To determine the relative effect of warming on plant p...

Global warming: it's not only size that matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2011-09-01

impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact

Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Gilbert, Lucy; Harrison, Paula A; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2016-03-01

Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick-host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes. © 2016 The Author(s).

75 FR 52873 - Migratory Bird Hunting; Final Frameworks for Early-Season Migratory Bird Hunting Regulations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-30

... frameworks from which States may select season dates, shooting hours, and daily bag and possession limits for... forth the species to be hunted, the daily bag and possession limits, the shooting hours, the season... seasons, limits, and shooting hours for the conterminous United States for the 2010-11 season. List of...

Periodic regulation of expression of genes for kisspeptin, gonadotropin-inhibitory hormone and their receptors in the grass puffer: Implications in seasonal, daily and lunar rhythms of reproduction.

PubMed

Ando, Hironori; Shahjahan, Md; Kitahashi, Takashi

2018-04-03

The seasonal, daily and lunar control of reproduction involves photoperiodic, circadian and lunar changes in the activity of kisspeptin, gonadotropin-inhibitory hormone (GnIH) and gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) neurons. These changes are brought through complex networks of light-, time- and non-photic signal-dependent control mechanisms, which are mostly unknown at present. The grass puffer, Takifugu alboplumbeus, a semilunar spawner, provides a unique and excellent animal model to assess this question because its spawning is synchronized with seasonal, daily and lunar cycles. In the diencephalon, the genes for kisspeptin, GnIH and their receptors showed similar expression patterns with clear seasonal and daily oscillations, suggesting that they are regulated by common mechanisms involving melatonin, circadian clock and water temperature. For implications in semilunar-synchronized spawning rhythm, melatonin receptor genes showed ultradian oscillations in expression with the period of 14.0-15.4 h in the pineal gland. This unique ultradian rhythm might be driven by circatidal clock. The possible circatidal clock and circadian clock in the pineal gland may cooperate to drive circasemilunar rhythm to regulate the expression of the kisspeptin, GnIH and their receptor genes. On the other hand, high temperature (over 28 °C) conditions, under which the expression of the kisspeptin and its receptor genes is markedly suppressed, may provide an environmental signal that terminates reproduction at the end of breeding period. Taken together, the periodic regulation of the kisspeptin, GnIH and their receptor genes by melatonin, circadian clock and water temperature may be important in the precisely-timed spawning of the grass puffer. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

PubMed Central

Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C.; Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J.; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Henderson, John M.; Murphy, Patrick C.; Goodrich, Jordan P.; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D.; Kimball, John S.; Lipson, David A.; Oechel, Walter C.

2016-01-01

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the “zero curtain” period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y−1, ∼25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming. PMID:26699476

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

DOE PAGES

Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; ...

2015-12-22

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH 4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH 4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH 4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥ 50% of the annual CH 4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the “zero curtain” period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0more » °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH 4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH 4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH 4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH 4 y –1, ~25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ~6% of total global wetland methane emissions. Here, the dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH 4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.« less

Effects of seasonality and a daily photo-protection upon some facial signs of Chinese women.

PubMed

Flament, F; Qiu, H

2017-06-01

These were two-fold: (i) to record through standardized pictures, the possible changes in 31 facial signs induced, in a 6-month period, by the periodical shift from winter to summer in a group of 43 Chinese women and (ii) to appraise the preventive effects of a strong photo-protective product, daily applied to the faces of an additional group (N = 40) of women of same age-range and presenting same severities of facial signs in winter. Facial signs (structural and pigmentation-related) were scored in blind by a panel of 12 experts from photographs taken under standard conditions. Scorings were performed under specific scales as established by a previously published referential Skin Aging Atlas, Volume 2, Asian Type. A significant seasonal impact was found for more than 60% of facial signs, that is presenting a higher severity in summer in the unprotected group. Some changes are of a low or subtle extent, whereas some others show significant amplitudes. The latter comprise eight signs, among the 31, that became, far above scoring threshold, indeed affected during this 6-month period. The observed changes in six of these eight signs, in majority related to pigmentation, appeared efficiently alleviated in the photo-protected group. The shift from winter to summer exposure is confirmed in altering some facial pigmented signs among Chinese women. Such changes appear much alleviated by a daily strong photo-protective regimen. © 2016 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

Seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Conditions for Wildland Fire Management in Alaska using NMME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; Thoman, R.; York, A.; Ziel, R.

2016-12-01

The summer of 2015 was the second largest Alaska fire season since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned and was costly from property loss (> 35M) and emergency personnel (> 17M). In addition to requiring significant resources, wildfire smoke impacts air quality in Alaska and downstream into North America. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Fire managers rely on weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season in advance. Though currently few tested products are available at the seasonal scale. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Advanced knowledge of both lightning and fuel conditions would assist managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) has been used since 1992 because it better suits the Alaska fire regime than the standard US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). This CFFWIS is based on early afternoon values of 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m winds and daily total precipitation. Extremes of these indices and the variables are used to calculate these indices will be defined in reference to fire weather for the boreal forest. The CFFWIS will be applied and evaluated for the NMME hindcasts. This study will evaluate the quality of the forecasts comparing the hindcast NMME CFFWIS to acres burned in Alaska. Spatial synoptic patterns in the NMME related to fire weather extremes will be constructed using self-organized maps and probabilities of occurrence will be evaluated against acres burned.

Does physiological acclimation to climate warming stabilize the ratio of canopy respiration to photosynthesis?

PubMed

Drake, John E; Tjoelker, Mark G; Aspinwall, Michael J; Reich, Peter B; Barton, Craig V M; Medlyn, Belinda E; Duursma, Remko A

2016-08-01

Given the contrasting short-term temperature dependences of gross primary production (GPP) and autotrophic respiration, the fraction of GPP respired by trees is predicted to increase with warming, providing a positive feedback to climate change. However, physiological acclimation may dampen or eliminate this response. We measured the fluxes of aboveground respiration (Ra ), GPP and their ratio (Ra /GPP) in large, field-grown Eucalyptus tereticornis trees exposed to ambient or warmed air temperatures (+3°C). We report continuous measurements of whole-canopy CO2 exchange, direct temperature response curves of leaf and canopy respiration, leaf and branch wood respiration, and diurnal photosynthetic measurements. Warming reduced photosynthesis, whereas physiological acclimation prevented a coincident increase in Ra . Ambient and warmed trees had a common nonlinear relationship between the fraction of GPP that was respired above ground (Ra /GPP) and the mean daily temperature. Thus, warming significantly increased Ra /GPP by moving plants to higher positions on the shared Ra /GPP vs daily temperature relationship, but this effect was modest and only notable during hot conditions. Despite the physiological acclimation of autotrophic respiration to warming, increases in temperature and the frequency of heat waves may modestly increase tree Ra /GPP, contributing to a positive feedback between climate warming and atmospheric CO2 accumulation. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Spring Temperatures Alone Cannot Explain Timing of Budburst of Boreal-Temperate Tree Species under Experimental Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montgomery, R. A.; Reich, P. B.; Rich, R. L.; Stefanski, A.

2011-12-01

Phenology, the timing of seasonal biological events such as budburst, blossom dates, bird migration and insect development, is critical to understanding species interactions (e.g. pollination, herbivory); determines growing season length in many (i.e. seasonal) terrestrial ecosystems; and can play a role in determining species range limits. There is ample evidence that plant and animal phenology has changed in recent decades. For trees in seasonally cold climates, change is most commonly manifested as earlier budburst, likely caused by earlier onset of warming temperatures in spring. Indeed, it is often assumed that one of the major phenological responses of temperate and boreal forest ecosystems to climate change will be earlier leafing and concomitantly, a longer growing season. However, spring warming interacts with other factors such as winter chilling and photoperiod to determine timing of spring leafing. For example, warmer winters could reduce the duration and amount of chilling experienced by dormant buds and lead to delayed budburst. Despite knowledge that such interactions exist, we know little about the interactive mechanisms by which various cues influence budburst in forest tree species or whether species differ in sensitivity to those cues. This gap hinders our ability to predict phenological responses and their ecological impacts under future climate scenarios. Over the past three years, we have conducted studies of leafing phenology, germination, photosynthesis, respiration, and growth of seedlings of ten boreal-temperate tree species subjected to experimental warming using infrared heat lamps and soil heating cables. Seedlings were planted into plots receiving ambient, +1.8°C or +3.6°C temperature treatments in open, aspen forest at the Cloquet Forestry Center, Cloquet, MN, USA (46°31' N, 92°30' W, 386 m a.s.l.; 4.5°C MAT, 807 mm MAP). While all species responded to warming by advancing the absolute date of budburst, several lines of evidence

Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, H.; Iwahana, G.; Ohta, T.

2015-12-01

The larch (Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. However, its existence depends on near-surface permafrost, which increases water availability for trees, and the boundary of the forest closely follows the permafrost zone. Therefore, the degradation of near-surface permafrost due to forecasted warming trends during the 21st century is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia. However, predictions of how warming trends will affect this forest vary greatly, and many uncertainties remain about land-atmospheric interactions within the ecosystem. We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo-hydrology and showed that, under climatic conditions predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, annual larch net primary production (NPP) increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of 21st century compared with that in the 20th century. Soil water content during larch growing season showed no obvious trend, even after decay of surface permafrost and accompanying sub-surface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecasted warming and pluvial trends extended leafing days of larches and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity.

Seasonal hydroclimatic impacts of Brazilian sugar cane expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgescu, M.; Lobell, D. B.; Field, C. B.; Mahalov, A.

2012-12-01

Brazil is the leading producer of sugar cane in the world with roughly half used for ethanol production. Because of suitable climatic growing conditions, the majority of biofuel production is derived from sugar plantations in southeastern states. Anticipated increases in global demand for biofuels are expected to lead to future sugar cane expansion extending into Brazilian pasturelands and native cerrado. Prior to undergoing large-scale expansion an evaluation of impacts on the region's hydroclimate is warranted. Using a suite of multi-year ensemble-based simulations with the WRF modeling system, we quantify hydroclimatic consequences of sugar cane expansion across portions of south-central Brazil. Conversion from current land use to sugar cane causes opposing seasonal impacts on near-surface temperature. Proggresively greater cooling is simulated during the course of the growing season, followed by an abrupt warming shift post-harvest. Although seasonal impacts on near-surface temperature are significant, with cooling of 1C occurring during the peak of the growing season followed by warming of similar magnitude, impacts are small when annually averaged. Ensemble mean differences between the imposed sugar cane expansion and non-expansion scenario are suggestive of a drying precipitation trend, yet large uncertainty among individual members precludes definitive statements about impacts on the region's rainfall.

Phenological responses of Icelandic subarctic grasslands to short-term and long-term natural soil warming.

PubMed

Leblans, Niki I W; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D; Vicca, Sara; Fu, Yongshuo; Penuelas, Josep; Janssens, Ivan A

2017-11-01

The phenology of vegetation, particularly the length of the growing season (LOS; i.e., the period from greenup to senescence), is highly sensitive to climate change, which could imply potent feedbacks to the climate system, for example, by altering the ecosystem carbon (C) balance. In recent decades, the largest extensions of LOS have been reported at high northern latitudes, but further warming-induced LOS extensions may be constrained by too short photoperiod or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Here, we studied subarctic grasslands, which cover a vast area and contain large C stocks, but for which LOS changes under further warming are highly uncertain. We measured LOS extensions of Icelandic subarctic grasslands along natural geothermal soil warming gradients of different age (short term, where the measurements started after 5 years of warming and long term, i.e., warmed since ≥50 years) using ground-level measurements of normalized difference vegetation index. We found that LOS linearly extended with on average 2.1 days per °C soil warming up to the highest soil warming levels (ca. +10°C) and that LOS had the potential to extend at least 1 month. This indicates that the warming impact on LOS in these subarctic grasslands will likely not saturate in the near future. A similar response to short- and long-term warming indicated a strong physiological control of the phenological response of the subarctic grasslands to warming and suggested that genetic adaptations and community changes were likely of minor importance. We conclude that the warming-driven extension of the LOSs of these subarctic grasslands did not saturate up to +10°C warming, and hence that growing seasons of high-latitude grasslands are likely to continue lengthening with future warming (unless genetic adaptations or species shifts do occur). This persistence of the warming-induced extension of LOS has important implications for the C-sink potential of subarctic grasslands under climate

Influence of sudden stratospheric warming and quasi biennial oscillation on western disturbance over north India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remya, R.; Kottayil, Ajil; Mohanakumar, K.

2017-07-01

This study demonstrates the variability in Western Disturbance during the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) period and its eventual influence on the north Indian weather pattern. The modulations in the north Indian winter under the two phases of the Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during SSW periods are also examined. The analysis has been carried out by using the ERA interim reanalysis dataset for different pressure levels in the stratosphere and upper troposphere during the time period of 1980-2010. The daily minimum surface temperature data published by India Meteorological Department from 1969 to 2013 has been used for the analysis of temperature anomaly over north India during SSW. The period of intense stratospheric warming witnesses a downward propagation and intensification of kinetic energy from stratosphere to upper troposphere over the Mediterranean and Caspian Sea. When QBO is in easterly phase, the cooling over north India is much larger when compared to the westerly phase during instances of SSW. SSW coincident with the easterly phase of QBO causes an intensified subtropical jet over the mid-latitude regions. The modulation in circulation pattern in stratosphere and upper troposphere when ENSO occurs during SSW period is also analysed separately. This study provides the link among SSW, Western Disturbances and the north Indian cooling during winter season.

A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua

2017-06-01

Using seasonal hindcasts of six different models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble project, the trend of the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific for 1982-2014 at each lead month and its temporal evolution with respect to the lead month are investigated for all individual models. Since the coupled models are initialized with the observed ocean, atmosphere, land states from observation-based reanalysis, some of them using their own data assimilation process, one would expect that the observed SST trend is reasonably well captured in their seasonal predictions. However, although the observed SST features a weak-cooling trend for the 33-year period with La Niña-like spatial pattern in the tropical central-eastern Pacific all year round, it is demonstrated that all models having a time-dependent realistic concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) display a warming trend in the equatorial Pacific that amplifies as the lead-time increases. In addition, these models' behaviors are nearly independent of the starting month of the hindcasts although the growth rates of the trend vary with the lead month. This key characteristic of the forecasted SST trend in the equatorial Pacific is also identified in the NCAR CCSM3 hindcasts that have the GHG concentration for a fixed year. This suggests that a global warming forcing may not play a significant role in generating the spurious warming trend of the coupled models' SST hindcasts in the tropical Pacific. This model SST trend in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which is opposite to the observed one, causes a developing El Niño-like warming bias in the forecasted SST with its peak in boreal winter. Its implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

Seasonal variation of temporal niche in wild owl monkeys (Aotus azarai azarai) of the Argentinean Chaco: a matter of masking?

PubMed

Erkert, Hans G; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Rotundo, Marcelo; Scheideler, Angelika

2012-07-01

nighttime activity occurred in summer and maximal daytime activity during the cold winter months. Dusk and dawn activity, which together accounted for 43% of the total daily activity, barely changed. The monkeys tended to terminate their nightly activity period earlier on warm and rainy days, whereas the daily amount of activity showed no significant correlation either with temperature or precipitation. These data are consistent with the dual-oscillator hypothesis of circadian regulation. They suggest the seasonal variations of the timing and pattern of daily activity in wild owl monkeys of the Argentinean Chaco result from a specific interplay of light entrainment of circadian rhythmicity and strong masking effects of various endogenous and environmental factors. Since the phase position of the monkeys' evening and morning activity peaks did not vary considerably over the year, the seasonal change from a crepuscular/nocturnal activity pattern in summer to a more crepuscular/cathemeral one in winter does not depend on a corresponding phase shift of the entrained circadian rhythm, but mainly on masking effects. Thermoregulatory and energetic demands and constraints seem to play a crucial role.

Seasonal trends of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide over North Santa Clara, Cuba.

PubMed

Alejo, Daniellys; Morales, Mayra C; de la Torre, Jorge B; Grau, Ricardo; Bencs, László; Van Grieken, René; Van Espen, Piet; Sosa, Dismey; Nuñez, Vladimir

2013-07-01

Atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) levels were monitored simultaneously by means of Radiello passive samplers at six sites of Santa Clara city, Cuba, in the cold and the warm seasons in 2010. The dissolved ionic forms of NO2 and SO2 as nitrate and sulfite plus sulfate, respectively, were determined by means of ion chromatography. Analysis of NO2 as nitrite was also performed by UV-Vis spectrophotometry. For NO2, significant t tests show good agreement between the results of IC and UV-Vis methods. The NO2 and SO2 concentrations peaked in the cold season, while their minimum levels were experienced in the warm season. The pollutant levels do not exceed the maximum allowable limit of the Cuban Standard 39:1999, i.e., 40 μg/m(3) and 50 μg/m(3) for NO2 and SO2, respectively. The lowest pollutant concentrations obtained in the warm season can be attributed to an increase in their removal via precipitation (scavenging) while to the decreased traffic density and industrial emission during the summer holidays (e.g., July and August).

The influence of the Great Lakes on MCS formation and development in the warm season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srock, Alan F.

This study focuses on how near-surface thermal boundaries that form near the Great Lakes during the warm season can contribute to the formation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Differential heating across land-water interfaces can create a cold dome of air over the lake; convection may develop when the relatively-cold dome of air becomes deep enough to enable air parcels that intersect these boundaries to reach their level of free convection. A radar-based climatology of MCS events surrounding the Great Lakes for 2002-2005 showed that MCSs frequently form in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. Composites of MCS events over the Great Lakes and in sub-regions defined by proximity to a Great Lake showed that the most important synoptic-scale precursor for MCS initiation is the presence of a low-level moisture plume, which is often (but not always) provided by a low-level jet (LLJ). Case studies of two MCSs that formed along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan showed how differential heating across the land-lake interface enabled the development of a near-surface mesoscale thermal boundary along which forced ascent was able to trigger convection. A third case study of an MCS that formed along the southern shore of Lake Superior showed that a strong land-lake thermal boundary provided a focus for long-lived MCS development beneath a plume of warm, moist air along the LLJ. High-resolution WRF-modeling studies were used to test the effect of the presence of a Great Lake on land-lake thermal boundary development and MCS generation. In one pair of simulations, differential heating in the control run created an over-lake cold dome that grew stronger and deeper during the day. Removing the lake removed the differential heating, so the no-lake run became comparatively warmer and moister in the lowest 1000 m over the "lake". Convection focused and organized along the near-lake mesoscale boundary in the control run, but was less organized and forced by larger-scale processes

Seasonal variability of rocky reef fish assemblages: Detecting functional and structural changes due to fishing effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriques, Sofia; Pais, Miguel Pessanha; Costa, Maria José; Cabral, Henrique Nogueira

2013-05-01

The present study analyzed the effects of seasonal variation on the stability of fish-based metrics and their capability to detect changes in fish assemblages, which is yet poorly understood despite the general idea that guilds are more resilient to natural variability than species abundances. Three zones subject to different levels of fishing pressure inside the Arrábida Marine Protected Area (MPA) were sampled seasonally. The results showed differences between warm (summer and autumn) and cold (winter and spring) seasons, with the autumn clearly standing out. In general, the values of the metrics density of juveniles, density of invertebrate feeders and density of omnivores increased in warm seasons, which can be attributed to differences in recruitment patterns, spawning migrations and feeding activity among seasons. The density of generalist/opportunistic individuals was sensitive to the effect of fishing, with higher values at zones with the lowest level of protection, while the density of individuals with high commercial value only responded to fishing in the autumn, due to a cumulative result of both juveniles and adults abundances during this season. Overall, this study showed that seasonal variability affects structural and functional features of the fish assemblage and that might influence the detection of changes as a result of anthropogenic pressures. The choice of a specific season, during warm sea conditions after the spawning period (July-October), seems to be more adequate to assess changes on rocky-reef fish assemblages.

The Differential Warming Response of Britain's Rivers (1982-2011).

PubMed

Jonkers, Art R T; Sharkey, Kieran J

2016-01-01

River water temperature is a hydrological feature primarily controlled by topographical, meteorological, climatological, and anthropogenic factors. For Britain, the study of freshwater temperatures has focussed mainly on observations made in England and Wales; similar comprehensive data sets for Scotland are currently unavailable. Here we present a model for the whole of mainland Britain over three recent decades (1982-2011) that incorporates geographical extrapolation to Scotland. The model estimates daily mean freshwater temperature for every river segment and for any day in the studied period, based upon physico-geographical features, daily mean air and sea temperatures, and available freshwater temperature measurements. We also extrapolate the model temporally to predict future warming of Britain's rivers given current observed trends. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal diversity of British freshwater temperatures and warming rates. Over the studied period, Britain's rivers had a mean temperature of 9.84°C and experienced a mean warming of +0.22°C per decade, with lower rates for segments near lakes and in coastal regions. Model results indicate April as the fastest-warming month (+0.63°C per decade on average), and show that most rivers spend on average ever more days of the year at temperatures exceeding 10°C, a critical threshold for several fish pathogens. Our results also identify exceptional warming in parts of the Scottish Highlands (in April and September) and pervasive cooling episodes, in December throughout Britain and in July in the southwest of England (in Wales, Cornwall, Devon, and Dorset). This regional heterogeneity in rates of change has ramifications for current and future water quality, aquatic ecosystems, as well as for the spread of waterborne diseases.

Allergenic pollen season variations in the past two decades under changing climate in the United States

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Mi, Zhongyuan; Cai, Ting; Robock, Alan; Georgopoulos, Panos

2014-01-01

Many diseases are linked with climate trends and variations. In particular, climate change is expected to alter the spatiotemporal dynamics of allergenic airborne pollen and potentially increase occurrence of allergic airway disease. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in pollen season timing and levels is thus important in assessing climate impacts on aerobiology and allergy caused by allergenic airborne pollen. Here we describe the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in the seasonal timing and levels of allergenic airborne pollen for multiple taxa in different climate regions at a continental scale. The allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass during the past decade (2001–2010) across the contiguous United States have been observed to start 3.0 (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.1–4.9) days earlier on average than in the 1990s (1994–2000). The average peak value and annual total of daily counted airborne pollen have increased by 42.4% (95% CI, 21.9%–62.9%) and 46.0% (95% CI, 21.5%–70.5%), respectively. Changes of pollen season timing and airborne levels depend on latitude, and are associated with changes of growing degree days, frost free days, and precipitation. These changes are likely due to recent climate change and particularly the enhanced warming and precipitation at higher latitudes in the contiguous United States. PMID:25266307

Seasonality of Arctic Mediterranean Exchanges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieper, Christoph; Quadfasel, Detlef

2015-04-01

The Arctic Mediterranean communicates through a number of passages with the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. Most of the volume exchange happens at the Greenland-Scotland-Ridge: warm and saline Atlantic Water flows in at the surface, cold, dense Overflow Water flows back at the bottom and fresh and cold Polar Water flows out along the East Greenland coast. All surface inflows show a seasonal signal whereas only the outflow through the Faroe Bank Channel exhibits significant seasonality. Here we present a quantification of the seasonal cycle of the exchanges across the Greenland-Scotland ridge based on volume estimates of the in- and outflows within the last 20 years (ADCP and altimetry). Our approach is comparatistic: we compare different properties of the seasonal cycle like the strength or the phase between the different in- and outflows. On the seasonal time scale the in- and outflows across the Greenland-Scotland-Ridge are not balanced. The net flux thus has to be balanced by the other passages on the Canadian Archipelago, Bering Strait as well as runoff from land.

Spatiotemporal variations in the difference between satellite-observed daily maximum land surface temperature and station-based daily maximum near-surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Xu; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Yao, Yitong; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Kaicun; Piao, Shilong

2017-02-01

There is an increasing demand to integrate land surface temperature (LST) into climate research due to its global coverage, which requires a comprehensive knowledge of its distinctive characteristics compared to near-surface air temperature (Tair). Using satellite observations and in situ station-based data sets, we conducted a global-scale assessment of the spatial and seasonal variations in the difference between daily maximum LST and daily maximum Tair (δT, LST - Tair) during 2003-2014. Spatially, LST is generally higher than Tair over arid and sparsely vegetated regions in the middle-low latitudes, but LST is lower than Tair in tropical rainforests due to strong evaporative cooling, and in the high-latitude regions due to snow-induced radiative cooling. Seasonally, δT is negative in tropical regions throughout the year, while it displays a pronounced seasonality in both the midlatitudes and boreal regions. The seasonality in the midlatitudes is a result of the asynchronous responses of LST and Tair to the seasonal cycle of radiation and vegetation abundance, whereas in the boreal regions, seasonality is mainly caused by the change in snow cover. Our study identified substantial spatial heterogeneity and seasonality in δT, as well as its determinant environmental drivers, and thus provides a useful reference for monitoring near-surface air temperature changes using remote sensing, particularly in remote regions.

Boreal and temperate trees show strong acclimation of respiration to warming.

PubMed

Reich, Peter B; Sendall, Kerrie M; Stefanski, Artur; Wei, Xiaorong; Rich, Roy L; Montgomery, Rebecca A

2016-03-31

Plant respiration results in an annual flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere that is six times as large as that due to the emissions from fossil fuel burning, so changes in either will impact future climate. As plant respiration responds positively to temperature, a warming world may result in additional respiratory CO2 release, and hence further atmospheric warming. Plant respiration can acclimate to altered temperatures, however, weakening the positive feedback of plant respiration to rising global air temperature, but a lack of evidence on long-term (weeks to years) acclimation to climate warming in field settings currently hinders realistic predictions of respiratory release of CO2 under future climatic conditions. Here we demonstrate strong acclimation of leaf respiration to both experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation for juveniles of ten North American tree species growing for several years in forest conditions. Plants grown and measured at 3.4 °C above ambient temperature increased leaf respiration by an average of 5% compared to plants grown and measured at ambient temperature; without acclimation, these increases would have been 23%. Thus, acclimation eliminated 80% of the expected increase in leaf respiration of non-acclimated plants. Acclimation of leaf respiration per degree temperature change was similar for experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation. Moreover, the observed increase in leaf respiration per degree increase in temperature was less than half as large as the average reported for previous studies, which were conducted largely over shorter time scales in laboratory settings. If such dampening effects of leaf thermal acclimation occur generally, the increase in respiration rates of terrestrial plants in response to climate warming may be less than predicted, and thus may not raise atmospheric CO2 concentrations as much as anticipated.

Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions.

PubMed

Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; Kueppers, Lara M

2015-09-01

Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict. We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season. Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15-30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions. Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Global Warming on Triton

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.;

Constant diurnal temperature regime alters the impact of simulated climate warming on a tropical pseudoscorpion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeh, Jeanne A.; Bonilla, Melvin M.; Su, Eleanor J.; Padua, Michael V.; Anderson, Rachel V.; Zeh, David W.

2014-01-01

Recent theory suggests that global warming may be catastrophic for tropical ectotherms. Although most studies addressing temperature effects in ectotherms utilize constant temperatures, Jensen's inequality and thermal stress considerations predict that this approach will underestimate warming effects on species experiencing daily temperature fluctuations in nature. Here, we tested this prediction in a neotropical pseudoscorpion. Nymphs were reared in control and high-temperature treatments under a constant daily temperature regime, and results compared to a companion fluctuating-temperature study. At constant temperature, pseudoscorpions outperformed their fluctuating-temperature counterparts. Individuals were larger, developed faster, and males produced more sperm, and females more embryos. The greatest impact of temperature regime involved short-term, adult exposure, with constant temperature mitigating high-temperature effects on reproductive traits. Our findings demonstrate the importance of realistic temperature regimes in climate warming studies, and suggest that exploitation of microhabitats that dampen temperature oscillations may be critical in avoiding extinction as tropical climates warm.

Designing a warm-up protocol for elite bob-skeleton athletes.

PubMed

Cook, Christian; Holdcroft, Danny; Drawer, Scott; Kilduff, Liam P

2013-03-01

To investigate how different warm-ups influenced subsequent sled-pull sprint performance in Olympic-level bob-skeleton athletes as part of their preparation for the 2010 Winter Olympics. Three female and 3 male athletes performed 5 different randomized warm-ups of differing intensities, durations, and timing relative to subsequent testing, each 2 days apart, all repeated twice. After warm-ups, testing on a sled-pull sprint over 20 m, 3 repeats 3 min apart, took place. Performance testing showed improvement (P < .001, ES > 1.2) with both increasing intensity of warm-up and closeness of completion to testing, with 20-m sled sprinting being 0.1-0.25 s faster in higher-intensity protocols performed near testing In addition, supplementing the warm-ups by wearing of a light survival coat resulted in further performance improvement (P = .000, ES 1.8). Changing timing and intensity of warm-up and using an ancillary passive heat-retention device improved sprint performance in Olympic-level bob-skeleton athletes. Subsequent adoption of these on the competitive circuit was associated with a seasonal improvement in push times and was ultimately implemented in the 2010 Winter Olympics.

Disentangling Seasonality and Mean Annual Precipitation in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: Insights from Coupled Plant Wax C and H Isotope Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galy, V.; Oppo, D.; Dubois, N.; Arbuszewski, J. A.; Mohtadi, M.; Schefuss, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

2016-12-01

There is ample evidence suggesting that rainfall distribution across the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) - a key component of the global climate system - has substantially varied over the last deglaciation. Yet, the precise nature of these hydroclimate changes remains to be elucidated. In particular, the relative importance of variations in precipitation seasonality versus annual precipitation amount is essentially unknown. Here we use a set of surface sediments from the IPWP covering a wide range of modern hydroclimate conditions to evaluate how plant wax stable isotope composition records rainfall distribution in the area. We focus on long chain fatty acids, which are exclusively produced by vascular plants living on nearby land and delivered to the ocean by rivers. We relate the C (δ13C) and H (δD) isotope composition of long chain fatty acids preserved in surface sediments to modern precipitation distribution and stable isotope composition in their respective source area. We show that: 1) δ13C values reflect vegetation distribution (in particular the relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants) and are primarily recording precipitation seasonality (Dubois et al., 2014) and, 2) once corrected for plant fractionation effects, δD values reflect the amount-weighted average stable isotope composition of precipitation and are primarily recording annual precipitation amounts. We propose that combining the C and H isotope composition of long chain fatty acids thus allows independent reconstructions of precipitation seasonality and annual amounts in the IPWP. The practical implications for reconstructing past hydroclimate in the IPWP will be discussed.

Cool seasons are related to poor prognosis in patients with infective endocarditis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Su-Jung; Chao, Tze-Fan; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Hsu, Tsui-Lieh; Yu, Wen-Chung; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Chen, Shih-Ann

2012-09-01

Many cardiac diseases demonstrate seasonal variations in the incidence and mortality. This study was designed to investigate whether the mortality of infective endocarditis (IE) was higher in cool seasons and to evaluate the effects of cool climate for IE. We enrolled 100 IE patients with vegetations in our hospital. The temperatures of the IE episodes were defined as the monthly average temperatures of the admission days. The average temperatures in the cool (fall/winter) and warm seasons (spring/summer) were 19.2°C and 27.6°C, respectively. In addition, patients admitted with the diagnosis of IE were identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) and the in-hospital mortality rates in cool and warm seasons were compared to validate the findings derived from the data of our hospital. The mortality rate for IE was significantly higher in fall/winter than in spring/summer which presents consistently in the patient population of our hospital (32.7% versus 12.5%, p = 0.017) and from NHIRD (10.4% versus 4.6%, p = 0.019). IE episodes which occurred during cool seasons presented with a higher rate of heart failure (44.2% versus 22.9%, p = 0.025) and D-dimer level (5.5 ± 3.8 versus 2.4 ± 1.8 μg/ml, p = 0.017) at admission than that of warm seasons. These results may reflect the impact of temperatures during the pre-hospitalized period on the disease process. In the multivariate analysis, Staphylococcal infection, left ventricular hypertrophy, left ventricular systolic dysfunction and temperature were the independent predictors of mortalities in IE patients.

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

PubMed Central

Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

2016-01-01

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

PubMed

Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

2016-02-03

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

NGEE Arctic Zero Power Warming PhenoCamera Images, Barrow, Alaska, 2016

DOE Data Explorer

Shawn Serbin; Andrew McMahon; Keith Lewin; Kim Ely; Alistair Rogers

2016-11-14

StarDot NetCam SC pheno camera images collected from the top of the Barrow, BEO Sled Shed. The camera was installed to monitor the BNL TEST group's prototype ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2016 (including early spring and late fall). Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every 10 minutes and renamed with the date and time of the image. See associated data "Zero Power Warming (ZPW) Chamber Prototype Measurements, Barrow, Alaska, 2016" http://dx.doi.org/10.5440/1343066.

The Effects of Warming-Shifted Plant Phenology on Ecosystem Carbon Exchange Are Regulated by Precipitation in a Semi-Arid Grassland

PubMed Central

Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2012-01-01

Background The longer growing season under climate warming has served as a crucial mechanism for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon (C) sink over the past decades. A better understanding of this mechanism is critical for projection of changes in C cycling of terrestrial ecosystems. Methodology/Principal Findings A 4-year field experiment with day and night warming was conducted to examine the responses of plant phenology and their influences on plant coverage and ecosystem C cycling in a temperate steppe in northern China. Greater phenological responses were observed under night than day warming. Both day and night warming prolonged the growing season by advancing phenology of early-blooming species but without changing that of late-blooming species. However, no warming response of vegetation coverage was found for any of the eight species. The variances in species-level coverage and ecosystem C fluxes under different treatments were positively dependent upon the accumulated precipitation within phenological duration but not the length of phenological duration. Conclusions/Significance These plants' phenology is more sensitive to night than day warming, and the warming effects on ecosystem C exchange via shifting plant phenology could be mediated by precipitation patterns in semi-arid grasslands. PMID:22359660

On the seasonal transition from winter to spring in Europe and the "seasonal feeling" relating to "Fasnacht" in comparison with those in East Asia (Toward an interdisciplinary activity on climate and cultural understanding education)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Kuranoshin; Kato, Haruko; Hamaki, Tatsuya

2016-04-01

As mentioned in the introduction of the EGU2016 abstract (Kato et al., submitted to CL5.06/AS4.9), there are many stages with rapid seasonal transitions in East Asia, resulting in the variety of "seasonal feeling". The seasonal cycle has been an important background for generation of the arts. On the other hand, around Germany located near the western edge of the Eurasian Continent, there are so many music or literature works in which the "May" is treated as the special season (comparison of the climate and songs on "spring" (or "May") between Japan and Germany was tried in a book by Kato, H. and K. Kato, although written in Japanese). The Japanese researchers on German Literature suggested that there are basically two seasons "winter" and "summer" around Germany, with the transitional stages of spring and autumn. The concepts of the battle between winter and summer, and driving winter away, and so on, around Germany seem to show rather different seasonal feelings from that around the Japan Islands (Oshio 1982; Miyashita 1982; Takeda 1980). A traditional event there called "Fasnacht" for driving winter away is held in March or slightly earlier stage (Takeda 1980; Ueda and Ebato 1988). Kato et al. (EGU2016, submitted to CL5.06/AS4.9) will report the synoptic climatological features on the seasonal transition from winter to spring in Europe based on the daily data, by comparing with that in East Asia. In this presentation, we will discuss on the climatological background for the "seasonal feeling" leading to such as the battle between winter and summer, driving winter away, including "Fasnacht", also by referring to some songs (children's songs, etc.). At the same time, the analysis results on the seasonal transition from winter to spring in Europe in comparison with those in East Asia by Kato et al. (EGU2016) will be also referred to. On the other hand, although it is around the end of March when the "wintertime pressure pattern" on the daily surface weather maps in

Short-term effect of fine particulate air pollution on daily mortality: a case-crossover study in a tropical city, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Shang-Shyue; Chen, Chih-Cheng; Yang, Chun-Yuh

2014-01-01

Many studies have examined the short-term effects of air pollution on frequency of daily mortality over the past two decades. However, information on the relationship between levels of fine particles (PM(2.5)) and daily mortality is relatively sparse due to limited availability of monitoring data. Further the results are inconsistent. This study was undertaken to determine whether there was an association between PM(2.5) levels and daily mortality rate in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, a large industrial city with a tropical climate. Daily mortality rate, air pollution parameters, and weather data for Kaohsiung were obtained for the period from 2006 through 2008. The relative risk of daily mortality occurrence was estimated using a time-stratified case-crossover approach, controlling for (1) weather variables, (2) day of the week, (3) seasonality, and (4) long-term time trends. For the single-pollutant model (without adjustment for other pollutants), no significant effects were found between PM(2.5) and frequency of daily mortality on warm days (≥25°C). On cool days, PM(2.5) showed significant correlation with increased risk of mortality rate for all causes and circulatory diseases in single-pollutant model. There was no indication of an association between PM(2.5) and deaths due to respiratory diseases. The relationship appeared to be stronger on cool days. This study provided evidence of associations between short-term exposure to PM(2.5) and elevated risk of death for all cause and circulatory diseases.

The occurrence of convective systems with a bow echo in warm season in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celiński-Mysław, Daniel; Palarz, Angelika

2017-09-01

The characteristics of occurrence of convective systems with a bow echo in Poland in the warm season between 2007 and 2014 were presented. Using the identification criteria proposed by Fujita (1978), Burke and Schultz (2004), Klimowski et al. (2000, 2004), and supplemented by Gatzen (2013), 91 bow echo cases were identified in the analysed period. Depending on the year, the maximum number of cases usually occurred in July or August. From the multi-annual perspective, 28 and 30 cases occurred in those months. The diurnal variation of bow echo occurrences showed that it developed, or entered the Polish territory, usually between the hours of 13:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC, while it disappeared or receded beyond the country border in the hours between 15:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC. The areas most exposed to the occurrence of bow echo included the northern part of Lubuskie and Wielkopolska provinces, the southern part of West Pomerania province, Łódź province and Silesia province. In the period studied, the south-western direction of movement of convective systems with a bow echo was prevalent. This direction changed, however, depending on the region and the month of occurrence. The type and development mode of a bow echo, as well as synoptic conditions conducive to its occurrence were defined for selected cases. The results showed that BECs (bow-echo complex) and BEs (classic bow echo) were the predominant types (respectively 43 and 29 cases). Bow echoes developed most frequently from a squall line, or from a combination of a few, often weakly organized convective cells.

Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome

PubMed Central

Walker, Marilyn D.; Wahren, C. Henrik; Hollister, Robert D.; Henry, Greg H. R.; Ahlquist, Lorraine E.; Alatalo, Juha M.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Calef, Monika P.; Callaghan, Terry V.; Carroll, Amy B.; Epstein, Howard E.; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S.; Klein, Julia A.; Magnússon, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Rewa, Steven P.; Robinson, Clare H.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Suding, Katharine N.; Thompson, Catharine C.; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Ørjan; Turner, P. Lee; Tweedie, Craig E.; Webber, Patrick J.; Wookey, Philip A.

2006-01-01

Recent observations of changes in some tundra ecosystems appear to be responses to a warming climate. Several experimental studies have shown that tundra plants and ecosystems can respond strongly to environmental change, including warming; however, most studies were limited to a single location and were of short duration and based on a variety of experimental designs. In addition, comparisons among studies are difficult because a variety of techniques have been used to achieve experimental warming and different measurements have been used to assess responses. We used metaanalysis on plant community measurements from standardized warming experiments at 11 locations across the tundra biome involved in the International Tundra Experiment. The passive warming treatment increased plant-level air temperature by 1-3°C, which is in the range of predicted and observed warming for tundra regions. Responses were rapid and detected in whole plant communities after only two growing seasons. Overall, warming increased height and cover of deciduous shrubs and graminoids, decreased cover of mosses and lichens, and decreased species diversity and evenness. These results predict that warming will cause a decline in biodiversity across a wide variety of tundra, at least in the short term. They also provide rigorous experimental evidence that recently observed increases in shrub cover in many tundra regions are in response to climate warming. These changes have important implications for processes and interactions within tundra ecosystems and between tundra and the atmosphere. PMID:16428292

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: critical to world oceanography and world climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Deckker, Patrick

2016-12-01

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool holds a unique place on the globe. It is a large area [>30 × 106 km2] that is characterised by permanent surface temperature >28 °C and is therefore called the `heat engine' of the globe. High convective clouds which can reach altitudes up to 15 km generate much latent heat in the process of convection and this area is therefore called the `steam engine' of the world. Seasonal and contrasting monsoonal activity over the region is the cause for a broad seasonal change of surface salinities, and since the area lies along the path of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, it is coined the `dilution' basin due to the high incidence of tropical rain and, away from the equator, tropical cyclones contribute to a significant drop in sea water salinity. Discussion about what may happen in the future of the Warm Pool under global warming is presented together with a description of the Warm Pool during the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum when sea levels had dropped by ~125 m. A call for urgent monitoring of the IPWP area is justified on the grounds of the significance of this area for global oceanographic and climatological processes, but also because of the concerned threats to human population living there.

Daily versus single-day offering of influenza vaccine in community pharmacies.

PubMed

Grabenstein, John D

2009-01-01

To assess the cumulative number of influenza vaccinations delivered per pharmacy in relation to number of days of offering vaccination per season. Automated records of pharmacies involved in a cohort study were queried for number of influenza vaccinations delivered in each of three influenza vaccination seasons between 1996 and 1998. Eleven pharmacies in Washington State were compared with 13 pharmacies in Oregon, contrasting years when nurses offered influenza vaccine 1 day per season with years when pharmacists offered influenza vaccine daily for several months. Pharmacies in which pharmacists offered influenza vaccination daily averaged 528 to 807 doses per pharmacy per season compared with 91 to 233 doses per pharmacy in seasons when nurses offered vaccination on a single day. Professionals dedicated to providing adult vaccination on any given day outperformed professionals who attended to both vaccination and other clinical duties, but the cumulative effect of offering vaccinations on multiple days can achieve a greater number of vaccinations over a several-month interval.