Science.gov

Sample records for decision analysis approach

  1. Lunar mission architecture evaluation using a decision analysis approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gleave, Janet

    1990-01-01

    President Bush's call for a return to the Moon, followed by the human exploration of Mars, has spawned numerous ideas for implementing what has been called the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). Because a return to the Moon has been designated as the first step of SEI, the time is rapidly approaching to select one of the many mission architectures proposed for the exploration, settlement, and exploitation of the Moon. The evaluation of alternative archictures, and the subsequent selection of the 'best' alternative will be critical to the success of this, and other, space programs. The following presentation discusses the application of systems analysis to the evaluation and selection of a Lunar outpost mission architecture. The role of a decision model in the evaluation/selection process is discussed, and different types of decision models are presented. These models are analyzed and discussed in terms of their applicability to the selection of a Lunar outpost mission architecture.

  2. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more

  3. An Entropy Approach for Utility Assignment in Decision Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbas, Ali E.

    2003-03-01

    A fundamental step in decision analysis is the elicitation of the decision-maker's preferences about the prospects of a decision situation in the form of utility values. However, this can be a difficult task to perform in practice as the number of prospects may be large, and eliciting a utility value for each prospect may be a time consuming and stressful task for the decision maker. To relieve some of the burden of this task, this paper presents a normative method to assign unbiased utility values when only incomplete preference information is available about the decision maker. We introduce the notion of a utility density function and propose a maximum entropy utility principle for utility assignment.

  4. Decision analysis of polluted sites -- A fuzzy set approach

    SciTech Connect

    Mohamed, A.M.O.; Cote, K.

    1999-07-01

    A decision analysis based model (DAPS 1.0, Decision Analysis of Polluted Sites) has been developed to evaluate risks that polluted sites might pose to human health. Pollutants present in soils and sediments can potentially migrate from source to receptor(s), via different pathways. in the developed model, pathways are simulated via transport models (i.e., groundwater transport model, runoff-erosion model, air diffusion model, and sediment diffusion, and resuspension model in water bodies). Humans can be affected by pollutant migration through land and water use. health risks can arise from ingestion of and dermal contact with polluted water and soil, as well as through inhalation of polluted air. Quantitative estimates of risks are calculated for both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic pollutants. Being very heterogeneous, soil and sediment systems are characterized by uncertain parameters. Concepts of fuzzy set theory have been adopted to account for uncertainty in the input parameters which are represented by fuzzy numbers. An inference model using fuzzy logic has been constructed for reasoning in the decision analysis.

  5. A review and classification of approaches for dealing with uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare decisions.

    PubMed

    Broekhuizen, Henk; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina G M; van Til, Janine A; Hummel, J Marjan; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2015-05-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support decisions in healthcare involving multiple and conflicting criteria. Although uncertainty is usually carefully addressed in health economic evaluations, whether and how the different sources of uncertainty are dealt with and with what methods in MCDA is less known. The objective of this study is to review how uncertainty can be explicitly taken into account in MCDA and to discuss which approach may be appropriate for healthcare decision makers. A literature review was conducted in the Scopus and PubMed databases. Two reviewers independently categorized studies according to research areas, the type of MCDA used, and the approach used to quantify uncertainty. Selected full text articles were read for methodological details. The search strategy identified 569 studies. The five approaches most identified were fuzzy set theory (45% of studies), probabilistic sensitivity analysis (15%), deterministic sensitivity analysis (31%), Bayesian framework (6%), and grey theory (3%). A large number of papers considered the analytic hierarchy process in combination with fuzzy set theory (31%). Only 3% of studies were published in healthcare-related journals. In conclusion, our review identified five different approaches to take uncertainty into account in MCDA. The deterministic approach is most likely sufficient for most healthcare policy decisions because of its low complexity and straightforward implementation. However, more complex approaches may be needed when multiple sources of uncertainty must be considered simultaneously. PMID:25630758

  6. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  7. The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P.

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders’ opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project’s home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/ .

  8. The decision analysis interview approach in the collaborative management of a large regulated water course.

    PubMed

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders' opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project's home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/. PMID:18830741

  9. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    SciTech Connect

    Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M.; Yerace, P.; Flora, J.; Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D.

    1998-05-01

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy`s West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach.

  10. Shared Decision-Making Models Acknowledging an Interprofessional Approach: A Theory Analysis to Inform Nursing Practice.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Krystina B; Stacey, Dawn; Squires, Janet E; Carroll, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Patient engagement in collaboration with health professionals is essential to deliver quality health care. A shared decision-making (SDM) approach requires that patients are involved in decisions regarding their health. SDM is expanding from the patient-physician dyad to incorporate an interprofessional perspective. Conceptual models can be used to better understand theoretical underpinnings for application in clinical practice. The aim of this article was to conduct a theory analysis of conceptual models using an interprofessional approach to SDM and discuss each model's relevance to nursing practice. Walker and Avant's theory analysis approach was used. Three conceptual models were eligible. For all models, the decision-making process was considered iterative. The development process was described for 1 model. All models were logical, parsimonious, and generalizable. One was supported by empirical testing. No model described how partnerships are enacted to achieve interprofessional SDM. Also, there was limited articulation as to how nurses' roles and contributions differ from other team members. This theory analysis highlights the need for a model that explains how partnerships among interprofessional team members are enacted to better understand the operationalization of interprofessional SDM. Implications for nursing practice at all system levels are offered and supported by the 3 models. PMID:27024998

  11. APPROACH TO LEVEL 2 ANALYSIS BASED ON LEVEL 1 RESULTS, MEG CATEGORIES AND COMPOUNDS, AND DECISION CRITERIA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report describes an approach to the decision criteria needed to proceed from the initial emission screening analysis (Level 1) to the detailed emission characterization (Level 2), and a Level 2 analytical approach. The decision criteria, considering only the available Level 1...

  12. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    PubMed

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk. PMID:19087232

  13. Helping patients make choices about breast reconstruction: A decision analysis approach

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Clement S.; Cantor, Scott B.; Reece, Gregory P.; Fingeret, Michelle C.; Crosby, Melissa A.; Markey, Mia K.

    2014-01-01

    Decision analysis can help breast reconstruction patients and their surgeons to methodically evaluate clinical alternatives and make hard decisions. The purpose of this paper is to help plastic surgeons guide patients in making decisions though a case study in breast reconstruction. By making good decisions, patient outcomes may be improved. This paper aims to illustrate decision analysis techniques from the patient perspective with an emphasis on her values and preferences. We introduce normative decision-making through a fictional breast reconstruction patient and systematically build the decision basis to help her make a good decision. We broadly identify alternatives of breast reconstruction, propose types of outcomes that the patient should consider, discuss sources of probabilistic information and outcome values, and demonstrate how to make a good decision. The concepts presented here may be extended to other shared decision-making problems in plastic and reconstructive surgery. In addition, we discuss how sensitivity analysis may test the robustness of the decision and how to evaluate the quality of decisions. We also present tools to help implement these concepts in practice. Finally, we examine limitations that hamper adoption of patient decision analysis in reconstructive surgery and healthcare in general. In particular, we emphasize the need for routine collection of quality of life information, out-of-pocket expense, and recovery time. PMID:25357022

  14. A decision-theory approach to interpretable set analysis for high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Boca, Simina M; Bravo, Héctor Céorrada; Caffo, Brian; Leek, Jeffrey T; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2013-09-01

    A key problem in high-dimensional significance analysis is to find pre-defined sets that show enrichment for a statistical signal of interest; the classic example is the enrichment of gene sets for differentially expressed genes. Here, we propose a new decision-theory approach to the analysis of gene sets which focuses on estimating the fraction of non-null variables in a set. We introduce the idea of "atoms," non-overlapping sets based on the original pre-defined set annotations. Our approach focuses on finding the union of atoms that minimizes a weighted average of the number of false discoveries and missed discoveries. We introduce a new false discovery rate for sets, called the atomic false discovery rate (afdr), and prove that the optimal estimator in our decision-theory framework is to threshold the afdr. These results provide a coherent and interpretable framework for the analysis of sets that addresses the key issues of overlapping annotations and difficulty in interpreting p values in both competitive and self-contained tests. We illustrate our method and compare it to a popular existing method using simulated examples, as well as gene-set and brain ROI data analyses. PMID:23909925

  15. Adapting a GIS-Based Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach for Evaluating New Power Generating Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Blevins, Brandon R; Jochem, Warren C; Mays, Gary T; Belles, Randy; Hadley, Stanton W; Harrison, Thomas J; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Neish, Bradley S; Rose, Amy N

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing need to site new power generating plants that use cleaner energy sources due to increased regulations on air and water pollution and a sociopolitical desire to develop more clean energy sources. To assist utility and energy companies as well as policy-makers in evaluating potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States, a geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is presented in this paper. The presented approach has led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth analysis for siting options. To the utility and energy companies, the tool can quickly and effectively provide feedback on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. However, the tool does not replace the required detailed evaluation of candidate sites. To the policy-makers, the tool provides the ability to analyze the impacts of future energy technology while balancing competing resource use.

  16. An Alternative Methodological Approach for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Decision Making in Genomic Medicine.

    PubMed

    Fragoulakis, Vasilios; Mitropoulou, Christina; van Schaik, Ron H; Maniadakis, Nikolaos; Patrinos, George P

    2016-05-01

    Genomic Medicine aims to improve therapeutic interventions and diagnostics, the quality of life of patients, but also to rationalize healthcare costs. To reach this goal, careful assessment and identification of evidence gaps for public health genomics priorities are required so that a more efficient healthcare environment is created. Here, we propose a public health genomics-driven approach to adjust the classical healthcare decision making process with an alternative methodological approach of cost-effectiveness analysis, which is particularly helpful for genomic medicine interventions. By combining classical cost-effectiveness analysis with budget constraints, social preferences, and patient ethics, we demonstrate the application of this model, the Genome Economics Model (GEM), based on a previously reported genome-guided intervention from a developing country environment. The model and the attendant rationale provide a practical guide by which all major healthcare stakeholders could ensure the sustainability of funding for genome-guided interventions, their adoption and coverage by health insurance funds, and prioritization of Genomic Medicine research, development, and innovation, given the restriction of budgets, particularly in developing countries and low-income healthcare settings in developed countries. The implications of the GEM for the policy makers interested in Genomic Medicine and new health technology and innovation assessment are also discussed. PMID:27096406

  17. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  18. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  19. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

  20. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  1. Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zadeh, L. A.

    1973-01-01

    Development of a conceptual framework for dealing with systems which are too complex or too ill-defined to admit of precise quantitative analysis. The approach outlined is based on the premise that the key elements in human thinking are not numbers, but labels of fuzzy sets - i.e., classes of objects in which the transition from membership to nonmembership is gradual rather than abrupt. The approach in question has three main distinguishing features - namely, the use of so-called 'linguistic' variables in place of or in addition to numerical variables, the characterization of simple relations between variables by conditional fuzzy statements, and the characterization of complex relations by fuzzy algorithms.

  2. A Risk-Constrained Multi-Stage Decision Making Approach to the Architectural Analysis of Mars Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuwata, Yoshiaki; Pavone, Marco; Balaram, J. (Bob)

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a novel risk-constrained multi-stage decision making approach to the architectural analysis of planetary rover missions. In particular, focusing on a 2018 Mars rover concept, which was considered as part of a potential Mars Sample Return campaign, we model the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) phase and the rover traverse phase as four sequential decision-making stages. The problem is to find a sequence of divert and driving maneuvers so that the rover drive is minimized and the probability of a mission failure (e.g., due to a failed landing) is below a user specified bound. By solving this problem for several different values of the model parameters (e.g., divert authority), this approach enables rigorous, accurate and systematic trade-offs for the EDL system vs. the mobility system, and, more in general, cross-domain trade-offs for the different phases of a space mission. The overall optimization problem can be seen as a chance-constrained dynamic programming problem, with the additional complexity that 1) in some stages the disturbances do not have any probabilistic characterization, and 2) the state space is extremely large (i.e, hundreds of millions of states for trade-offs with high-resolution Martian maps). To this purpose, we solve the problem by performing an unconventional combination of average and minimax cost analysis and by leveraging high efficient computation tools from the image processing community. Preliminary trade-off results are presented.

  3. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis☆

    PubMed Central

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty–sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights. PMID:25843987

  4. An approach for automated fault diagnosis based on a fuzzy decision tree and boundary analysis of a reconstructed phase space.

    PubMed

    Aydin, Ilhan; Karakose, Mehmet; Akin, Erhan

    2014-03-01

    Although reconstructed phase space is one of the most powerful methods for analyzing a time series, it can fail in fault diagnosis of an induction motor when the appropriate pre-processing is not performed. Therefore, boundary analysis based a new feature extraction method in phase space is proposed for diagnosis of induction motor faults. The proposed approach requires the measurement of one phase current signal to construct the phase space representation. Each phase space is converted into an image, and the boundary of each image is extracted by a boundary detection algorithm. A fuzzy decision tree has been designed to detect broken rotor bars and broken connector faults. The results indicate that the proposed approach has a higher recognition rate than other methods on the same dataset. PMID:24296116

  5. Analysis of the impact of recreational trail usage for prioritising management decisions: a regression tree approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomczyk, Aleksandra; Ewertowski, Marek; White, Piran; Kasprzak, Leszek

    2016-04-01

    The dual role of many Protected Natural Areas in providing benefits for both conservation and recreation poses challenges for management. Although recreation-based damage to ecosystems can occur very quickly, restoration can take many years. The protection of conservation interests at the same as providing for recreation requires decisions to be made about how to prioritise and direct management actions. Trails are commonly used to divert visitors from the most important areas of a site, but high visitor pressure can lead to increases in trail width and a concomitant increase in soil erosion. Here we use detailed field data on condition of recreational trails in Gorce National Park, Poland, as the basis for a regression tree analysis to determine the factors influencing trail deterioration, and link specific trail impacts with environmental, use related and managerial factors. We distinguished 12 types of trails, characterised by four levels of degradation: (1) trails with an acceptable level of degradation; (2) threatened trails; (3) damaged trails; and (4) heavily damaged trails. Damaged trails were the most vulnerable of all trails and should be prioritised for appropriate conservation and restoration. We also proposed five types of monitoring of recreational trail conditions: (1) rapid inventory of negative impacts; (2) monitoring visitor numbers and variation in type of use; (3) change-oriented monitoring focusing on sections of trail which were subjected to changes in type or level of use or subjected to extreme weather events; (4) monitoring of dynamics of trail conditions; and (5) full assessment of trail conditions, to be carried out every 10-15 years. The application of the proposed framework can enhance the ability of Park managers to prioritise their trail management activities, enhancing trail conditions and visitor safety, while minimising adverse impacts on the conservation value of the ecosystem. A.M.T. was supported by the Polish Ministry of

  6. An Analysis of the EPA Report on Pipeline Renewal Decision Making Tools and Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Few DSS are commercially available for technology selection as most utilities make decisions based on in-house and consultant expertise (Matthews et al., 2011). This review presents some of the models proposed over the past 15 years for selecting technologies in the U.S. and wor...

  7. Analysis of Wastewater and Water System Renewal Decision-Making Tools and Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    In regards to the development of software for decision support for pipeline renewal, most of the attention to date has been paid to the development of asset management models which help an owner decide on which portions of a system to prioritize for needed actions. There has not ...

  8. Decision Analysis Using Spreadsheets.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sounderpandian, Jayavel

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of decision analysis and its importance in a business curriculum focuses on the use of spreadsheets instead of commercial software packages for computer assisted instruction. A hypothetical example is given of a company drilling for oil, and suggestions are provided for classroom exercises using spreadsheets. (seven references) (LRW)

  9. Determining the optimal approach to improving trauma triage decisions: a cost-effectiveness analysis

    PubMed Central

    Mohan, Deepika; Barnato, Amber E; Rosengart, Matthew R; Angus, Derek C; Smith, Kenneth J

    2013-01-01

    Objective To identify the optimal target of a future intervention to improve physician decision making in trauma triage. Study Design A comparison of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of current practice versus hypothetical interventions targeting either physicians’ decisional thresholds (attitudes towards transferring patients to trauma centers) or perceptual sensitivity (ability to identify patients who meet guidelines for transfer). Methods Taking the societal perspective, we constructed a Markov decision model. We drew estimates of triage patterns, mortality, utilities, and costs from the literature. We assumed that an intervention to change decisional threshold would reduce under-triage but also increase over-triage more than an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity. We performed a series of one-way sensitivity analyses, and studied the most influential variables in a Monte Carlo simulation. Results The ICER of an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity was $62,799/ quality-adjusted life years (QALY)-gained compared with current practice. The ICER of an intervention to change decisional threshold was $104,975/QALY-gained compared with an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity. These findings were most sensitive to the relative cost of hospitalizing patients with moderate-severe injuries and their relative risk of dying at non-trauma centers. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY-gained, there was a 62% likelihood that an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity was the most cost-effective alternative. Conclusions Even a minor investment in changing decision making in trauma triage could greatly improve the quality of care provided. The optimal intervention depends on the characteristics of the individual trauma systems. PMID:22435966

  10. Stochastic decision analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lacksonen, Thomas A.

    1994-01-01

    Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given

  11. SCORE: a novel multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing the sustainability of contaminated land remediation.

    PubMed

    Rosén, Lars; Back, Pär-Erik; Söderqvist, Tore; Norrman, Jenny; Brinkhoff, Petra; Norberg, Tommy; Volchko, Yevheniya; Norin, Malin; Bergknut, Magnus; Döberl, Gernot

    2015-04-01

    The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method provides for a comprehensive and transparent basis for performing sustainability assessments. Development of a relevant MCDA-method requires consideration of a number of key issues, e.g. (a) definition of assessment boundaries, (b) definition of performance scales, both temporal and spatial, (c) selection of relevant criteria (indicators) that facilitate a comprehensive sustainability assessment while avoiding double-counting of effects, and (d) handling of uncertainties. Adding to the complexity is the typically wide variety of inputs, including quantifications based on existing data, expert judgements, and opinions expressed in interviews. The SCORE (Sustainable Choice Of REmediation) MCDA-method was developed to provide a transparent assessment of the sustainability of possible remediation alternatives for contaminated sites relative to a reference alternative, considering key criteria in the economic, environmental, and social sustainability domains. The criteria were identified based on literature studies, interviews and focus-group meetings. SCORE combines a linear additive model to rank the alternatives with a non-compensatory approach to identify alternatives regarded as non-sustainable. The key strengths of the SCORE method are as follows: a framework that at its core is designed to be flexible and transparent; the possibility to integrate both quantitative and qualitative estimations on criteria; its ability, unlike other sustainability assessment tools used in industry and academia, to allow for the alteration of boundary conditions where necessary; the inclusion of a full uncertainty analysis of the results, using Monte Carlo simulation; and a structure that allows preferences and opinions of involved stakeholders to be openly integrated into the analysis. A major insight from practical application of SCORE is that its most important contribution may be that it initiates a process where criteria

  12. Probabilistic approach to decision making under uncertainty during volcanic crises. Retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; Kilburn, Christopher; López, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial to improving the design of effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely-populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision makers. Here we present a new model BADEMO (Bayesian Decision Model) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves, and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision makers.

  13. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics.

    PubMed

    Bates, Matthew E; Larkin, Sabrina; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach) and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach). Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), value of information (VOI), weight of evidence (WOE), and portfolio decision analysis (PDA) can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges. PMID:26425410

  14. 2D Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling Tool for River Restoration Decision Analysis: A Quantitative Approach to Project Prioritization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandrowski, D.; Lai, Y.; Bradley, N.; Gaeuman, D. A.; Murauskas, J.; Som, N. A.; Martin, A.; Goodman, D.; Alvarez, J.

    2014-12-01

    In the field of river restoration sciences there is a growing need for analytical modeling tools and quantitative processes to help identify and prioritize project sites. 2D hydraulic models have become more common in recent years and with the availability of robust data sets and computing technology, it is now possible to evaluate large river systems at the reach scale. The Trinity River Restoration Program is now analyzing a 40 mile segment of the Trinity River to determine priority and implementation sequencing for its Phase II rehabilitation projects. A comprehensive approach and quantitative tool has recently been developed to analyze this complex river system referred to as: 2D-Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling (2D-HBLM). This tool utilizes various hydraulic output parameters combined with biological, ecological, and physical metrics at user-defined spatial scales. These metrics and their associated algorithms are the underpinnings of the 2D-HBLM habitat module used to evaluate geomorphic characteristics, riverine processes, and habitat complexity. The habitat metrics are further integrated into a comprehensive Logic Model framework to perform statistical analyses to assess project prioritization. The Logic Model will analyze various potential project sites by evaluating connectivity using principal component methods. The 2D-HBLM tool will help inform management and decision makers by using a quantitative process to optimize desired response variables with balancing important limiting factors in determining the highest priority locations within the river corridor to implement restoration projects. Effective river restoration prioritization starts with well-crafted goals that identify the biological objectives, address underlying causes of habitat change, and recognizes that social, economic, and land use limiting factors may constrain restoration options (Bechie et. al. 2008). Applying natural resources management actions, like restoration prioritization, is

  15. The decision tree approach to classification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, C.; Landgrebe, D. A.; Swain, P. H.

    1975-01-01

    A class of multistage decision tree classifiers is proposed and studied relative to the classification of multispectral remotely sensed data. The decision tree classifiers are shown to have the potential for improving both the classification accuracy and the computation efficiency. Dimensionality in pattern recognition is discussed and two theorems on the lower bound of logic computation for multiclass classification are derived. The automatic or optimization approach is emphasized. Experimental results on real data are reported, which clearly demonstrate the usefulness of decision tree classifiers.

  16. Latent effects decision analysis

    DOEpatents

    Cooper, J. Arlin; Werner, Paul W.

    2004-08-24

    Latent effects on a system are broken down into components ranging from those far removed in time from the system under study (latent) to those which closely effect changes in the system. Each component is provided with weighted inputs either by a user or from outputs of other components. A non-linear mathematical process known as `soft aggregation` is performed on the inputs to each component to provide information relating to the component. This information is combined in decreasing order of latency to the system to provide a quantifiable measure of an attribute of a system (e.g., safety) or to test hypotheses (e.g., for forensic deduction or decisions about various system design options).

  17. Multicriteria decision analysis in oncology

    PubMed Central

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Montero, Alberto J.; Xiao, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Background There has been a growing interest in the development and application of alternative decision-making frameworks within health care, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). Even though the literature includes several reviews on MCDA methods, applications of MCDA in oncology are lacking. Aim The aim of this paper is to discuss a rationale for the use of MCDA in oncology. In this context, the following research question emerged: How can MCDA be used to develop a clinical decision support tool in oncology? Methods In this paper, a brief background on decision making is presented, followed by an overview of MCDA methods and process. The paper discusses some applications of MCDA, proposes research opportunities in the context of oncology and presents an illustrative example of how MCDA can be applied to oncology. Findings Decisions in oncology involve trade-offs between possible benefits and harms. MCDA can help analyse trade-off preferences. A wide range of MCDA methods exist. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses. Choosing the appropriate method varies depending on the source and nature of information used to inform decision making. The literature review identified eight studies. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most often used method in the identified studies. Conclusion Overall, MCDA appears to be a promising tool that can be used to assist clinical decision making in oncology. Nonetheless, field testing is desirable before MCDA becomes an established decision-making tool in this field. PMID:24635949

  18. Initial Decision and Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-29

    Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

  19. Comprehensive evaluation of water resources security in the Yellow River basin based on a fuzzy multi-attribute decision analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, K. K.; Li, C. H.; Cai, Y. P.; Xu, M.; Xia, X. H.

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, a fuzzy multi-attribute decision analysis approach (FMADAA) was developed for supporting the evaluation of water resources security in nine provinces within the Yellow River basin. A numerical approximation system and a modified left-right scoring approach were adopted to cope with the uncertainties in the acquired information. Also, four conventional multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) methods were implemented in the evaluation model for impact evaluation, including simple weighted addition (SWA), weighted product (WP), cooperative game theory (CGT) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). Moreover, several aggregation methods including average ranking procedure, Borda and Copeland methods were used to integrate the ranking results, helping rank the water resources security in those nine provinces as well as improving reliability of evaluation results. The ranking results showed that the water resources security of the entire basin was in critical condition, including the insecurity and absolute insecurity states, especially in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia provinces in which water resources were lower than the average quantity in China. Hence, the improvement of water eco-environment statuses in the above-mentioned provinces should be prioritized in the future planning of the Yellow River basin.

  20. A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

    PubMed

    de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

    2016-04-01

    A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. PMID:26422298

  1. Multi-criteria decision analysis as an innovative approach to managing zoonoses: results from a study on Lyme disease in Canada

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Zoonoses are a growing international threat interacting at the human-animal-environment interface and call for transdisciplinary and multi-sectoral approaches in order to achieve effective disease management. The recent emergence of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada is a good example of a complex health issue for which the public health sector must find protective interventions. Traditional preventive and control interventions can have important environmental, social and economic impacts and as a result, decision-making requires a systems approach capable of integrating these multiple aspects of interventions. This paper presents the results from a study of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach for the management of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada. MCDA methods allow a comparison of interventions or alternatives based on multiple criteria. Methods MCDA models were developed to assess various prevention and control decision criteria pertinent to a comprehensive management of Lyme disease: a first model was developed for surveillance interventions and a second was developed for control interventions. Multi-criteria analyses were conducted under two epidemiological scenarios: a disease emergence scenario and an epidemic scenario. Results In general, we observed a good level of agreement between stakeholders. For the surveillance model, the three preferred interventions were: active surveillance of vectors by flagging or dragging, active surveillance of vectors by trapping of small rodents and passive surveillance of vectors of human origin. For the control interventions model, basic preventive communications, human vaccination and small scale landscaping were the three preferred interventions. Scenarios were found to only have a small effect on the group ranking of interventions in the control model. Conclusions MCDA was used to structure key decision criteria and capture the complexity of Lyme disease management. This facilitated the

  2. Ethical Decision-Making and Ethical Responding: An Analysis and Critique of Various Approaches through Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sun, Jing-Ping

    2011-01-01

    For three decades, the scholars in the area of values in educational administration and the moral dimension of leadership have conceptually argued for and empirically explored the centrality of values to educational administration. This centrality may be expressed as the roles and nature of values in decision-making and conflict resolution.…

  3. Comprehensive evaluation of water resources security in the Yellow River basin based on a Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, K. K.; Li, C. H.; Cai, Y. P.; Xu, M.; Xia, X. H.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis Approach (FMADAA) was adopted in water resources security evaluation for the nine provinces in the Yellow River basin in 2006. A numerical approximation system and a modified left-right scoring approach were adopted to cope with the uncertainties in the acquired information. Four multi-attribute decision making methods were implemented in the evaluation model for impact evaluation, including simple weighted addition (SWA), weighted product (WP), cooperative game theory (CGT) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) which could be used for helping rank the water resources security in those nine provinces as well as the criteria alternatives. Moreover, several aggregation methods including average ranking procedure, borda and copeland methods were used to integrate the ranking results. The ranking results showed that the water resources security of the entire basin is in critical, insecurity and absolute insecurity state, especially in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia provinces in which water resources were lower than the average quantity in China. Hence, future planning of the Yellow River basin should mainly focus on the improvement of water eco-environment status in the provinces above.

  4. A decision theoretical approach for diffusion promotion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Fei; Liu, Yun

    2009-09-01

    In order to maximize cost efficiency from scarce marketing resources, marketers are facing the problem of which group of consumers to target for promotions. We propose to use a decision theoretical approach to model this strategic situation. According to one promotion model that we develop, marketers balance between probabilities of successful persuasion and the expected profits on a diffusion scale, before making their decisions. In the other promotion model, the cost for identifying influence information is considered, and marketers are allowed to ignore individual heterogeneity. We apply the proposed approach to two threshold influence models, evaluate the utility of each promotion action, and provide discussions about the best strategy. Our results show that efforts for targeting influentials or easily influenced people might be redundant under some conditions.

  5. Decision-problem state analysis methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dieterly, D. L.

    1980-01-01

    A methodology for analyzing a decision-problem state is presented. The methodology is based on the analysis of an incident in terms of the set of decision-problem conditions encountered. By decomposing the events that preceded an unwanted outcome, such as an accident, into the set of decision-problem conditions that were resolved, a more comprehensive understanding is possible. All human-error accidents are not caused by faulty decision-problem resolutions, but it appears to be one of the major areas of accidents cited in the literature. A three-phase methodology is presented which accommodates a wide spectrum of events. It allows for a systems content analysis of the available data to establish: (1) the resolutions made, (2) alternatives not considered, (3) resolutions missed, and (4) possible conditions not considered. The product is a map of the decision-problem conditions that were encountered as well as a projected, assumed set of conditions that should have been considered. The application of this methodology introduces a systematic approach to decomposing the events that transpired prior to the accident. The initial emphasis is on decision and problem resolution. The technique allows for a standardized method of accident into a scenario which may used for review or the development of a training simulation.

  6. A Structured approach to incidental take decision making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor P.

    2013-01-01

    Decision making related to incidental take of endangered species under U.S. law lends itself well to a structured decision making approach. Incidental take is the permitted killing, harming, or harassing of a protected species under the law as long as that harm is incidental to an otherwise lawful activity and does not “reduce appreciably the probability of survival and recovery in the wild.” There has been inconsistency in the process used for determining incidental take allowances across species and across time for the same species, and structured decision making has been proposed to improve decision making. I use an example decision analysis to demonstrate the process and its applicability to incidental take decisions, even under significant demographic uncertainty and multiple, competing objectives. I define the example problem, present an objectives statement and a value function, use a simulation model to assess the consequences of a set of management actions, and evaluate the tradeoffs among the different actions. The approach results in transparent and repeatable decisions.

  7. A Structured Approach to Incidental Take Decision Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGowan, Conor P.

    2013-01-01

    Decision making related to incidental take of endangered species under U.S. law lends itself well to a structured decision making approach. Incidental take is the permitted killing, harming, or harassing of a protected species under the law as long as that harm is incidental to an otherwise lawful activity and does not "reduce appreciably the probability of survival and recovery in the wild." There has been inconsistency in the process used for determining incidental take allowances across species and across time for the same species, and structured decision making has been proposed to improve decision making. I use an example decision analysis to demonstrate the process and its applicability to incidental take decisions, even under significant demographic uncertainty and multiple, competing objectives. I define the example problem, present an objectives statement and a value function, use a simulation model to assess the consequences of a set of management actions, and evaluate the tradeoffs among the different actions. The approach results in transparent and repeatable decisions.

  8. Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Akar, S.; Young, K. R.

    2015-02-01

    Geothermal exploration projects have significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and when to walk away from a site, are two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment. Current methodologies for exploration decision making is left to subjective by subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go-no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on a location. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of a particular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basic geothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This second approach was

  9. ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS: A FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNITY DECISION-MAKING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Alternative futures analysis is an assessment approach designed to inform community decisions about land and water use. We conducted an alternative futures analysis in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. Three alternative future landscapes for the year 2050 were depicted and compare...

  10. Decision story strategy: a practical approach for teaching decision making.

    PubMed

    Smith, D L; Hamrick, M H; Anspaugh, D J

    1981-12-01

    Teachers are usually very enthusiastic in their evaluations of decision stories. Decision Story Strategies offer a change of pace, promote student involvement and stimulate creative thinking, problem solving and everpresent creative teaching-learning opportunities. The real-life problems presented within the structure of a decision story provide meaningful learning opportunities for students. Students begin to think in a broader perspective when considering other points of view and information sources. The Decision Story Strategy used with the Decision-Making Model provides a powerful tool for health educators to develop skills for making and evaluating decisions in an interesting and meaningful context. It may not be a panacea for all health educators, but is an effective strategy for the teacher concerned with developing independent decision makers. Most importantly, students are provided opportunities to solve their present problems as well as develop decision-making skills for the future. PMID:6916032

  11. Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Orient, J.M.

    1985-02-01

    Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness.

  12. A Systematic Approach for Climate Change Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S. J.; Higgins, G. J.; Vanwijngaarden, F.

    2010-12-01

    To effectively predict and prepare for the effects of global climate change on the worldwide population, infrastructure and economy, we need to take a quantum leap forward in how we deal with the issue. Those who must make climate-sensitive decisions need access to the best available climate science information and analysis. To overcome barriers and change behavior, the information must be credible, robust, unbiased, and based on research results that are broadly accepted by the climate science community. Moreover, the process for delivery of information must be tailored to the users’ needs and practices. Unfortunately, much of climate science data today is in the “science domain”, and not available to end users in a form they can use to take action. So there is a need to bridge the gap and take a systematic approach driven by user requirements to sharing climate change science research and analysis with decision makers that would enable them to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. These needs will become all the more pressing as climate change information is used in real world decisions involving the commitment of large resources and with potential liability and litigation. In this paper, we describe an approach that involves multidisciplinary cooperation and systematic integration of climate change data acquisition and management, climate modeling and projections, uncertainty quantification and risk assessments, economic analysis, and decision support delivered through customized user interfaces.

  13. Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whalen, Thomas

    1992-01-01

    This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

  14. Do We Know Why We Make Errors in Morphological Diagnosis? An Analysis of Approach and Decision-Making in Haematological Morphology

    PubMed Central

    Brereton, Michelle; De La Salle, Barbara; Ardern, John; Hyde, Keith; Burthem, John

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background The laboratory interpretation of blood film morphology is frequently a rapid, accurate, and cost-effective final-stage of blood count analysis. However, the interpretation of findings often rests with a single individual, and errors can carry significant impact. Cell identification and classification skills are well supported by existing resources, but the contribution and importance of other skills are less well understood. Methods The UK external quality assurance group in haematology (UK NEQAS(H)) runs a Continued Professional Development scheme where large digital-images of abnormal blood smears are presented using a web-based virtual microscope. Each case is answered by more than 800 individuals. Morphological feature selection and prioritisation, as well as diagnosis and proposed action, are recorded. We analysed the responses of participants, aiming to identify successful strategies as well as sources of error. Findings The approach to assessment by participants depended on the affected cell type, case complexity or skills of the morphologist. For cases with few morphological abnormalities, we found that accurate cell identification and classification were the principle requirements for success. For more complex films however, feature recognition and prioritisation had primary importance. Additionally however, we found that participants employed a range of heuristic techniques to support their assessment, leading to associated bias and error. Interpretation A wide range of skills together allow successful morphological assessment and the complexity of this process is not always understood or recognised. Heuristic techniques are widely employed to support or reinforce primary observations and to simplify complex findings. These approaches are effective and are integral to assessment; however they may also be a source of bias or error. Improving outcomes and supporting diagnosis require the development of decision-support mechanisms that

  15. NASA program decisions using reliability analysis.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steinberg, A.

    1972-01-01

    NASA made use of the analytical outputs of reliability people to make management decisions on the Apollo program. Such decisions affected the amount of the incentive fees, how much acceptance testing was necessary, how to optimize development testing, whether to approve engineering changes, and certification of flight readiness. Examples of such analysis are discussed and related to programmatic decisions.-

  16. Engaging patients using an interprofessional approach to shared decision making.

    PubMed

    Dawn, Stacey; Légaré, France

    2015-01-01

    Many cancer treatment and screening decisions are difficult given that they rely upon patients' informed preferences. Interprofessional shared decision making is when two or more health care professionals collaborate with a patient to reach an agreed-upon decision. To support patients' engagement in shared decision making, effective interventions include patient decision aids and/or decision coaching. Patient decision aids are typically written or video-based resources, while decision coaching is provided by trained health care professionals who are supportive but non-directive. Both interventions make explicit the decision, provide balanced information on options based on the best available evidence, and help patients consider what matters most. The overall aim is to discuss how oncology nurses can engage in an interprofessional approach to shared decision making. PMID:26897867

  17. From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

    2010-01-01

    Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an alternative…

  18. Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gati, Itamar

    1986-01-01

    Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

  19. Using multiple criteria decision analysis for supporting decisions of solid waste management.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Steven; Chan, Christine W; Huang, Guo H

    2002-01-01

    Design of solid-waste management systems requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and evaluation criteria because the systems can have complex and conflicting impacts on different stakeholders. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been found to be a fruitful approach to solve this design problem. In this paper, the MCDA approach is applied to solve the landfill selection problem in Regina of Saskatchewan Canada. The systematic approach of MCDA helps decision makers select the most preferable decision and provides the basis of a decision support system. The techniques that are used in this study include: 1) Simple Weighted Addition method, 2) Weighted Product method, 3) TOPSIS, 4) cooperative game theory, and 5) ELECTRE. The results generated with these methods are compared and ranked so that the most preferable solution is identified. PMID:12090287

  20. Decision Tree Approach for Soil Liquefaction Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Gandomi, Amir H.; Fridline, Mark M.; Roke, David A.

    2013-01-01

    In the current study, the performances of some decision tree (DT) techniques are evaluated for postearthquake soil liquefaction assessment. A database containing 620 records of seismic parameters and soil properties is used in this study. Three decision tree techniques are used here in two different ways, considering statistical and engineering points of view, to develop decision rules. The DT results are compared to the logistic regression (LR) model. The results of this study indicate that the DTs not only successfully predict liquefaction but they can also outperform the LR model. The best DT models are interpreted and evaluated based on an engineering point of view. PMID:24489498

  1. Data Decision Analysis: Project Shoal

    SciTech Connect

    Forsgren, Frank; Pohll, Greg; Tracy, John

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the most appropriate field activities in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the groundwater flow and transport model at the Project Shoal area. The data decision analysis relied on well-known tools of statistics and uncertainty analysis. This procedure identified nine parameters that were deemed uncertain. These included effective porosity, hydraulic head, surface recharge, hydraulic conductivity, fracture correlation scale, fracture orientation, dip angle, dissolution rate of radionuclides from the puddle glass, and the retardation coefficient, which describes the sorption characteristics. The parameter uncertainty was described by assigning prior distributions for each of these parameters. Next, the various field activities were identified that would provide additional information on these parameters. Each of the field activities was evaluated by an expert panel to estimate posterior distribution of the parameters assuming a field activity was performed. The posterior distributions describe the ability of the field activity to estimate the true value of the nine parameters. Monte Carlo techniques were used to determine the current uncertainty, the reduction of uncertainty if a single parameter was known with certainty, and the reduction of uncertainty expected from each field activity on the model predictions. The mean breakthrough time to the downgradient land withdrawal boundary and the peak concentration at the control boundary were used to evaluate the uncertainty reduction. The radionuclide 137Cs was used as the reference solute, as its migration is dependent on all of the parameters. The results indicate that the current uncertainty of the model yields a 95 percent confidence interval between 42 and 1,412 years for the mean breakthrough time and an 18 order-of-magnitude range in peak concentration. The uncertainty in effective porosity and recharge dominates the uncertainty in the model predictions, while the

  2. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  3. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    PubMed

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria. PMID:24154917

  4. A Bayesian sequential processor approach to spectroscopic portal system decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Sale, K; Candy, J; Breitfeller, E; Guidry, B; Manatt, D; Gosnell, T; Chambers, D

    2007-07-31

    The development of faster more reliable techniques to detect radioactive contraband in a portal type scenario is an extremely important problem especially in this era of constant terrorist threats. Towards this goal the development of a model-based, Bayesian sequential data processor for the detection problem is discussed. In the sequential processor each datum (detector energy deposit and pulse arrival time) is used to update the posterior probability distribution over the space of model parameters. The nature of the sequential processor approach is that a detection is produced as soon as it is statistically justified by the data rather than waiting for a fixed counting interval before any analysis is performed. In this paper the Bayesian model-based approach, physics and signal processing models and decision functions are discussed along with the first results of our research.

  5. Variations in Decision-Making Approach to Tertiary Teaching: A Case Study in Vietnam

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nguyen, Thanh Tien

    2016-01-01

    Although the question of what to teach and how to teach has received much attention from the literature, little was known about the way in which academics in teaching groups make decision on what and how to teach. This paper reports an analysis of variations in the decision-making approach to tertiary teaching through academics' practices of…

  6. Neural substrates of approach-avoidance conflict decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Aupperle, Robin L.; Melrose, Andrew J.; Francisco, Alex; Paulus, Martin P.; Stein, Murray B.

    2014-01-01

    Animal approach-avoidance conflict paradigms have been used extensively to operationalize anxiety, quantify the effects of anxiolytic agents, and probe the neural basis of fear and anxiety. Results from human neuroimaging studies support that a frontal-striatal-amygdala neural circuitry is important for approach-avoidance learning. However, the neural basis of decision-making is much less clear in this context. Thus, we combined a recently developed human approach-avoidance paradigm with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to identify neural substrates underlying approach-avoidance conflict decision-making. Fifteen healthy adults completed the approach-avoidance conflict (AAC) paradigm during fMRI. Analyses of variance were used to compare conflict to non-conflict (avoid-threat and approach-reward) conditions and to compare level of reward points offered during the decision phase. Trial-by-trial amplitude modulation analyses were used to delineate brain areas underlying decision-making in the context of approach/avoidance behavior. Conflict trials as compared to the non-conflict trials elicited greater activation within bilateral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), anterior insula, and caudate, as well as right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Right caudate and lateral PFC activation was modulated by level of reward offered. Individuals who showed greater caudate activation exhibited less approach behavior. On a trial-by-trial basis, greater right lateral PFC activation related to less approach behavior. Taken together, results suggest that the degree of activation within prefrontal-striatal-insula circuitry determines the degree of approach versus avoidance decision-making. Moreover, the degree of caudate and lateral PFC activation is related to individual differences in approach-avoidance decision-making. Therefore, the AAC paradigm is ideally suited to probe anxiety-related processing differences during approach-avoidance decision-making. PMID:25224633

  7. Computer-Assisted Approaches to Multiattribute Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radcliff, Benjamin

    1986-01-01

    This article evaluates three general types of computer-assisted approaches to multicriteria decision problems in which criteria are attributes as opposed to objectives. Several programs specifically designed for multiattribute problems, as well as spreadsheets and decision-free software, are discussed. (Author/BS)

  8. Which Bisphosphonate? It's the Compliance!: Decision Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lee, You Jin; Park, Chan Ho; Ha, Yong-Chan; Koo, Kyung-Hoi

    2016-01-01

    Background The best options of several bisphosphonates for prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women remain controversial. We determined which bisphosphonate provides better efficacy in prevention of osteoporotic fractures using a decision analysis tool, in terms of quality of life. Methods A decision analysis model was constructed containing final outcome score and the probability of vertebral and hip fracture within 1 year. Final outcome was defined as health-related quality of life, and was used as an utility in the decision tree. Probabilities were obtained by literature review, and health-related quality of life was evaluated by consensus committee. A roll back tool was used to determine the best bisphosphonate, and sensitivity analysis was performed to compensate for decision model uncertainty. Results The decision model favored bisphosphonate with higher compliance in terms of quality of life. In one-way sensitivity analysis, ibandronate was more beneficial than the others, when probability of compliance on ibandronate was above 0.589. Conclusions In terms of quality of life, the decision analysis model showed that compliance was most important for patients in real world, regardless of type of bisphosphonate.

  9. Cloud service selection using multicriteria decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Whaiduzzaman, Md; Gani, Abdullah; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shiraz, Muhammad; Haque, Mohammad Nazmul; Haque, Israat Tanzeena

    2014-01-01

    Cloud computing (CC) has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a) focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b) highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c) presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d) analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios. PMID:24696645

  10. Cloud Service Selection Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shiraz, Muhammad; Haque, Israat Tanzeena

    2014-01-01

    Cloud computing (CC) has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a) focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b) highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c) presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d) analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios. PMID:24696645

  11. A Practical Approach to Modified Condition/Decision Coverage

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayhurst, Kelly J.; Veerhusem, Dan S.

    2001-01-01

    Testing of software intended for safety-critical applications in commercial transport aircraft must achieve modified condition/decision coverage (MC/DC) of the software structure. This requirement causes anxiety for many within the aviation software community. Results of a survey of the aviation software industry indicate that many developers believe that meeting the MC/DC requirement is difficult, and the cost is exorbitant. Some of the difficulties stem, no doubt, from the scant information available on the subject. This paper provides a practical 5-step approach for assessing MC/DC for aviation software products, and an analysis of some types of errors expected to be caught when MC/DC is achieved1.

  12. A Variable Precision Attribute Reduction Approach in Multilabel Decision Tables

    PubMed Central

    Li, Hua; Li, Deyu; Zhai, Yanhui; Wang, Suge; Zhang, Jing

    2014-01-01

    Owing to the high dimensionality of multilabel data, feature selection in multilabel learning will be necessary in order to reduce the redundant features and improve the performance of multilabel classification. Rough set theory, as a valid mathematical tool for data analysis, has been widely applied to feature selection (also called attribute reduction). In this study, we propose a variable precision attribute reduct for multilabel data based on rough set theory, called δ-confidence reduct, which can correctly capture the uncertainty implied among labels. Furthermore, judgement theory and discernibility matrix associated with δ-confidence reduct are also introduced, from which we can obtain the approach to knowledge reduction in multilabel decision tables. PMID:25170521

  13. A variable precision attribute reduction approach in multilabel decision tables.

    PubMed

    Li, Hua; Li, Deyu; Zhai, Yanhui; Wang, Suge; Zhang, Jing

    2014-01-01

    Owing to the high dimensionality of multilabel data, feature selection in multilabel learning will be necessary in order to reduce the redundant features and improve the performance of multilabel classification. Rough set theory, as a valid mathematical tool for data analysis, has been widely applied to feature selection (also called attribute reduction). In this study, we propose a variable precision attribute reduct for multilabel data based on rough set theory, called δ-confidence reduct, which can correctly capture the uncertainty implied among labels. Furthermore, judgement theory and discernibility matrix associated with δ-confidence reduct are also introduced, from which we can obtain the approach to knowledge reduction in multilabel decision tables. PMID:25170521

  14. Aiding Lay Decision Making Using a Cognitive Competencies Approach

    PubMed Central

    Maule, A. J.; Maule, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Two prescriptive approaches have evolved to aid human decision making: just in time interventions that provide support as a decision is being made; and just in case interventions that educate people about future events that they may encounter so that they are better prepared to make an informed decision when these events occur. We review research on these two approaches developed in the context of supporting everyday decisions such as choosing an apartment, a financial product or a medical procedure. We argue that the lack of an underlying prescriptive theory has limited the development and evaluation of these interventions. We draw on recent descriptive research on the cognitive competencies that underpin human decision making to suggest new ways of interpreting how and why existing decision aids may be effective and suggest a different way of evaluating their effectiveness. We also briefly outline how our approach has the potential to develop new interventions to support everyday decision making and highlight the benefits of drawing on descriptive research when developing and evaluating interventions. PMID:26779052

  15. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    SciTech Connect

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. |

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  16. Decision Analysis for Equipment Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cilliers, J. J.

    2005-01-01

    Equipment selection during process design is a critical aspect of chemical engineering and requires engineering judgment and subjective analysis. When educating chemical engineering students in the selection of proprietary equipment during design, the focus is often on the types of equipment available and their operating characteristics. The…

  17. Architecting Space Exploration Campaigns: A Decision-Analytic Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baker, Erin; Morse, Elisabeth L.; Gray, Andrew A.; Easter, Robert W.

    2006-01-01

    This paper shows the benefits of Decision Analysis techniques for campaign design and evaluation. Important concepts of decision analysis are reviewed through the lens of designing a campaign to find exploitable equatorial water on Mars. The method developed herein is general to any search campaign. The paper concludes with a discussion of the challenges and opportunities in applying similar techniques to other types of campaigns.

  18. Economic aspects of clinical decision making: applications of clinical decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Crane, V S

    1988-03-01

    Clinical decision analysis as a basic tool for decision making is described, and potential applications of decision analysis in six areas of clinical practice are identified. Clinical decision analysis is a systematic method of describing clinical problems in a quantitative fashion, identifying possible courses of action, assessing the probability and value of outcomes, and then making a calculation to select the ultimate course of action. Clinical decision analysis provides a structure for clinical decision problems, helps clarify medical controversies, and encourages decision makers to speak a common language. Applications of clinical decision analysis in the areas of diagnostic testing, patient management, product and program selection, research and education, patient preferences, and health-care-policy evaluation are described. Decision analysis offers health professionals a tool for making quantifiable, cost-effective clinical decisions, especially in terms of clinical outcomes. PMID:3285672

  19. Geospatial Approach on Landslide Hazard Zonation Mapping Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Study on Coonoor and Ooty, Part of Kallar Watershed, The Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahamana, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.

    2014-12-01

    Landslides are one of the critical natural phenomena that frequently lead to serious problems in hilly area, resulting to loss of human life and property, as well as causing severe damage to natural resources. The local geology with high degree of slope coupled with high intensity of rainfall along with unplanned human activities of the study area causes many landslides in this region. The present study area is more attracted by tourist throughout the year, so this area must be considered for preventive measures. Geospatial based Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique is increasingly used for landslide vulnerability and hazard zonation mapping. It enables the integration of different data layers with different levels of uncertainty. In this present study, it is used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to prepare landslide hazard zones of the Coonoor and Ooty, part of Kallar watershed, The Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu. The study was carried out using remote sensing data, field surveys and geographic information system (GIS) tools. The ten factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope aspect, slope angle, drainage density, lineament density, soil, precipitation, land use/land cover (LULC), distance from road and NDVI were considered. These factors layers were extracted from the various related spatial data's. These factors were evaluated, and then, the individual factor weight and class weight were assigned to each of the related factors. The Landslide Hazard Zone Index (LHZI) was calculated using Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) the technique based on the assigned weight and the rating is given by the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The final cumulative map of the study area was categorized into four hazard zones and classified as zone I to IV. There are 3.56% of the area comes under the hazard zone IV fallowed by 48.19% of the area comes under zone III, 43.63 % of the area in zone II and 4.61% of the area comes hazard

  20. Beyond Bioethics: A Child Rights-Based Approach to Complex Medical Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Wade, Katherine; Melamed, Irene; Goldhagen, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    This analysis adopts a child rights approach-based on the principles, standards, and norms of child rights and the U.N. Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC)-to explore how decisions could be made with regard to treatment of a severely impaired infant (Baby G). While a child rights approach does not provide neat answers to ethically complex issues, it does provide a framework for decision-making in which the infant is viewed as an independent rights-holder. The state has obligations to develop the capacity of those who make decisions for infants in such situations to meet their obligations to respect, protect, and fulfill their rights as delineated in the CRC. Furthermore, a child rights approach requires procedural clarity and transparency in decision-making processes. As all rights in the CRC are interdependent and indivisible, all must be considered in the process of ethical decision-making, and the reasons for decisions must be delineated by reference to how these rights were considered. It is also important that decisions that are made in this context be monitored and reviewed to ensure consistency. A rights-based framework ensures decision-making is child-centered and that there are transparent criteria and legitimate procedures for making decisions regarding the child's most basic human right: the right to life, survival, and development. PMID:27157351

  1. Clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches in osteopathy - a qualitative grounded theory study.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Oliver P; Petty, Nicola J; Moore, Ann P

    2014-02-01

    There is limited understanding of how osteopaths make decisions in relation to clinical practice. The aim of this research was to construct an explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of experienced osteopaths in the UK. Twelve UK registered osteopaths participated in this constructivist grounded theory qualitative study. Purposive and theoretical sampling was used to select participants. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews which were audio-recorded and transcribed. As the study approached theoretical sufficiency, participants were observed and video-recorded during a patient appointment, which was followed by a video-prompted interview. Constant comparative analysis was used to analyse and code data. Data analysis resulted in the construction of three qualitatively different therapeutic approaches which characterised participants and their clinical practice, termed; Treater, Communicator and Educator. Participants' therapeutic approach influenced their approach to clinical decision-making, the level of patient involvement, their interaction with patients, and therapeutic goals. Participants' overall conception of practice lay on a continuum ranging from technical rationality to professional artistry, and contributed to their therapeutic approach. A range of factors were identified which influenced participants' conception of practice. The findings indicate that there is variation in osteopaths' therapeutic approaches to practice and clinical decision-making, which are influenced by their overall conception of practice. This study provides the first explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of osteopaths. PMID:23932101

  2. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  3. An object-oriented approach to site characterization decision support

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, R.

    1995-06-01

    Effective decision support for site characterization is key to determining the nature and extent of contamination and the associated human and environmental risks. Site characterization data, however, present particular problems to technical analysts and decision-makers. Such data are four dimensional, incorporating temporal and spatial components. Their sheer volume can be daunting -- sites with hundreds of monitoring wells and thousands of samples sent for laboratory analyses are not uncommon. Data are derived from a variety of sources including laboratory analyses, non-intrusive geophysical surveys, historical information, bore logs, in-field estimates of key physical parameters such as aquifer transmissivity, soil moisture content, depth-to-water table, etc. Ultimately, decisions have to be made based on data that are always incomplete, often confusing, inaccurate, or inappropriate, and occasionally wrong. In response to this challenge, two approaches to environmental decision support have arisen, Data Quality Objectives (DQOS) and the Observational Approach (OA). DQOs establish criteria for data collection by clearly defining the decisions that need to be made, the uncertainty that can be tolerated, and the type and amount of data that needs to be collected to satisfy the uncertainty requirements. In practice, DQOs are typically based on statistical measures. The OA accepts the fact that the process of characterizing and remediating contaminated sites is always uncertain. Decision-making with the OA is based on what is known about a site, with contingencies developed for potential future deviations from the original assumptions about contamination nature, extent, and risks posed.

  4. Collaborative prototyping approaches for ICU decision aid design.

    PubMed

    Ehrhart, L S; Hanson, C W; Marshall, B E; Marshall, C; Medsker, C

    1999-01-01

    When computer-based aids do not support the human users' decision-making strategies or anticipate the organizational impacts of technological change, advances in information technology may degrade rather than enhance decision-making performance. Such failures suggest the design of human-computer cooperation for problem solving and decision-making must be driven by human cognitive and organizational process requirements rather than computer technology. Decision- and user-centered development techniques involve domain experts and end-users in the earliest phases of design to evolve an understanding of requirements through iterative prototyping. This paper presents a collaborative approach to cognitive systems engineering applied to developing a clinical aid to assist respiratory care in the surgical ICU. PMID:10566460

  5. Decision making in bipolar disorder: a cognitive modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yechiam, Eldad; Hayden, Elizabeth P; Bodkins, Misty; O'Donnell, Brian F; Hetrick, William P

    2008-11-30

    A formal modeling approach was used to characterize decision-making processes in bipolar disorder. Decision making was examined in 28 bipolar patients (14 acute and 14 remitted) and 25 controls using the Iowa Gambling Task (Bechara et al., 1994), a decision-making task used for assessing cognitive impulsivity. To disentangle motivational and cognitive aspects of decision-making processes, we applied a formal cognitive model to the performance on the Iowa Gambling Task. The model has three parameters: The relative impact of rewards and punishments on evaluations, the impact of recent and past payoffs, and the degree of choice consistency. The results indicated that acute bipolar patients were characterized by low choice consistency, or a tendency to make erratic choices. Low choice consistency improved the prediction of acute bipolar disorder beyond that provided by cognitive functioning and self-report measures of personality and temperament. PMID:18848361

  6. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

  7. Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios

    2013-05-15

    Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.

  8. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach

    PubMed Central

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.; Pitt, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  9. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

    PubMed

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

    2013-02-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  10. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  11. A Fuzzy Set Theory Approach to Periodical Binding Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turner, Stephen J.; O'Brien, Gregory

    1984-01-01

    Results of data analysis on 470 journal titles illustrate complexity of the fuzzy set theory modeling process, which consists of three factors--number of missing issues, citations, circulations--and its limitations in making journal binding decisions. Procedures of research, data collection, and data analysis are discussed. Matrices are included.…

  12. Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science.

    PubMed

    Dhami, Mandeep K; Mandel, David R; Mellers, Barbara A; Tetlock, Philip E

    2015-11-01

    Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in policy decision making. Key functions of intelligence analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the uncertainties inherent in such forecasts, and effectively communicating those probabilistic forecasts to stakeholders. We review decision research on probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty communication, drawing attention to findings that could be used to reform intelligence processes and contribute to more effective intelligence oversight. We recommend that the intelligence community (IC) regularly and quantitatively monitor its forecasting accuracy to better understand how well it is achieving its functions. We also recommend that the IC use decision science to improve these functions (namely, forecasting and communication of intelligence estimates made under conditions of uncertainty). In the case of forecasting, decision research offers suggestions for improvement that involve interventions on data (e.g., transforming forecasts to debias them) and behavior (e.g., via selection, training, and effective team structuring). In the case of uncertainty communication, the literature suggests that current intelligence procedures, which emphasize the use of verbal probabilities, are ineffective. The IC should, therefore, leverage research that points to ways in which verbal probability use may be improved as well as exploring the use of numerical probabilities wherever feasible. PMID:26581731

  13. Decerns: A framework for multi-criteria decision analysis

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Yatsalo, Boris; Didenko, Vladimir; Gritsyuk, Sergey; Sullivan, Terry

    2015-02-27

    A new framework, Decerns, for multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of a wide range of practical problems on risk management is introduced. Decerns framework contains a library of modules that are the basis for two scalable systems: DecernsMCDA for analysis of multicriteria problems, and DecernsSDSS for multicriteria analysis of spatial options. DecernsMCDA includes well known MCDA methods and original methods for uncertainty treatment based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy numbers. As a result, these MCDA methods are described along with a case study on analysis of multicriteria location problem.

  14. Sample Size Estimation for Non-Inferiority Trials: Frequentist Approach versus Decision Theory Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bouman, A. C.; ten Cate-Hoek, A. J.; Ramaekers, B. L. T.; Joore, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Non-inferiority trials are performed when the main therapeutic effect of the new therapy is expected to be not unacceptably worse than that of the standard therapy, and the new therapy is expected to have advantages over the standard therapy in costs or other (health) consequences. These advantages however are not included in the classic frequentist approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials. In contrast, the decision theory approach of sample size calculation does include these factors. The objective of this study is to compare the conceptual and practical aspects of the frequentist approach and decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials, thereby demonstrating that the decision theory approach is more appropriate for sample size calculation of non-inferiority trials. Methods The frequentist approach and decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials are compared and applied to a case of a non-inferiority trial on individually tailored duration of elastic compression stocking therapy compared to two years elastic compression stocking therapy for the prevention of post thrombotic syndrome after deep vein thrombosis. Results The two approaches differ substantially in conceptual background, analytical approach, and input requirements. The sample size calculated according to the frequentist approach yielded 788 patients, using a power of 80% and a one-sided significance level of 5%. The decision theory approach indicated that the optimal sample size was 500 patients, with a net value of €92 million. Conclusions This study demonstrates and explains the differences between the classic frequentist approach and the decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials. We argue that the decision theory approach of sample size estimation is most suitable for sample size calculation of non-inferiority trials. PMID:26076354

  15. An automated approach to the design of decision tree classifiers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Argentiero, P.; Chin, P.; Beaudet, P.

    1980-01-01

    The classification of large dimensional data sets arising from the merging of remote sensing data with more traditional forms of ancillary data is considered. Decision tree classification, a popular approach to the problem, is characterized by the property that samples are subjected to a sequence of decision rules before they are assigned to a unique class. An automated technique for effective decision tree design which relies only on apriori statistics is presented. This procedure utilizes a set of two dimensional canonical transforms and Bayes table look-up decision rules. An optimal design at each node is derived based on the associated decision table. A procedure for computing the global probability of correct classfication is also provided. An example is given in which class statistics obtained from an actual LANDSAT scene are used as input to the program. The resulting decision tree design has an associated probability of correct classification of .76 compared to the theoretically optimum .79 probability of correct classification associated with a full dimensional Bayes classifier. Recommendations for future research are included.

  16. The Melbourne Code Appendices: announcing a new approach for tracking nomenclatural decisions and a analysis of the history of nomenclatural proposals

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A newly expanded digital resource exists for tracking decisions on all nomenclature proposals potentially contributing to Appendices II-VIII of the International Code of Nomenclature for algae, fungi, and plants. This resource originated with the Smithsonian Institution's Proposals and Disposals web...

  17. Teaching the Tools of Pharmaceutical Care Decision-Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rittenhouse, Brian E.

    1994-01-01

    A method of decision-analysis in pharmaceutical care that integrates epidemiology and economics is presented, including an example illustrating both the deceptive nature of medical decision making and the power of decision analysis. Principles in determining both general and specific probabilities of interest and use of decision trees for…

  18. Use of a pro-fibrogenic mechanism-based predictive toxicological approach for tiered testing and decision analysis of carbonaceous nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiang; Duch, Matthew C; Mansukhani, Nikhita; Ji, Zhaoxia; Liao, Yu-Pei; Wang, Meiying; Zhang, Haiyuan; Sun, Bingbing; Chang, Chong Hyun; Li, Ruibin; Lin, Sijie; Meng, Huan; Xia, Tian; Hersam, Mark C; Nel, André E

    2015-03-24

    Engineered carbonaceous nanomaterials (ECNs), including single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), graphene, and graphene oxide (GO), are potentially hazardous to the lung. With incremental experience in the use of predictive toxicological approaches, seeking to relate ECN physicochemical properties to adverse outcome pathways (AOPs), it is logical to explore the existence of a common AOP that allows comparative analysis of broad ECN categories. We established an ECN library comprising three different types of SWCNTs, graphene, and graphene oxide (two sizes) for comparative analysis according to a cell-based AOP that also plays a role in the pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis. SWCNTs synthesized by Hipco, arc discharge and Co-Mo catalyst (CoMoCAT) methods were obtained in their as-prepared (AP) state, following which they were further purified (PD) or coated with Pluronic F108 (PF108) or bovine serum albumin (BSA) to improve dispersal and colloidal stability. GO was prepared as two sizes, GO-small (S) and GO-large (L), while the graphene samples were coated with BSA and PF108 to enable dispersion in aqueous solution. In vitro screening showed that AP- and PD-SWCNTs, irrespective of the method of synthesis, as well as graphene (BSA) and GO (S and L) could trigger interleukin-1β (IL-1β) and transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) production in myeloid (THP-1) and epithelial (BEAS-2B) cell lines, respectively. Oropharyngeal aspiration in mice confirmed that AP-Hipco tubes, graphene (BSA-dispersed), GO-S and GO-L could induce IL-1β and TGF-β1 production in the lung in parallel with lung fibrosis. Notably, GO-L was the most pro-fibrogenic material based on rapid kinetics of pulmonary injury. In contrast, PF108-dispersed SWCNTs and -graphene failed to exert fibrogenic effects. Collectively, these data indicate that the dispersal state and surface reactivity of ECNs play key roles in triggering a pro-fibrogenic AOP, which could prove

  19. Methodical Approach to Developing a Decision Support System for Well Interventions Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silich, V. A.; Savelev, A. O.; Isaev, A. N.

    2016-04-01

    The paper contains aspects of developing a decision support systems aimed for well interventions planning within the process of oil production engineering. The specific approach described by authors is based on system analysis methods and object model for system design. Declared number of problem-decision principles as follows: the principle of consolidated information area, the principle of integrated control, the principle of development process transparency. Also observed a set of models (class model, object model, attribute interdependence model, component model, coordination model) specified for designing decision support system for well intervention planning.

  20. The Aeronautical Data Link: Decision Framework for Architecture Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, A. Terry; Goode, Plesent W.

    2003-01-01

    A decision analytic approach that develops optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different airspace operations functions has previously been developed. The approach, premised on a formal taxonomic classification that correlates data link performance with operations requirements, information requirements, and implementing technologies, provides a coherent methodology for data link architectural analysis from top-down and bottom-up perspectives. This paper follows the previous research by providing more specific approaches for mapping and transitioning between the lower levels of the decision framework. The goal of the architectural analysis methodology is to assess the impact of specific architecture configurations and behaviors on the efficiency, capacity, and safety of operations. This necessarily involves understanding the various capabilities, system level performance issues and performance and interface concepts related to the conceptual purpose of the architecture and to the underlying data link technologies. Efficient and goal-directed data link architectural network configuration is conditioned on quantifying the risks and uncertainties associated with complex structural interface decisions. Deterministic and stochastic optimal design approaches will be discussed that maximize the effectiveness of architectural designs.

  1. Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coroiu, A. M.

    2015-11-01

    We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk

  2. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  3. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    SciTech Connect

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

  4. Decision Theoretic Analysis of Improving Epidemic Detection

    PubMed Central

    Izadi, Masoumeh T.; Buckeridge, David L.

    2007-01-01

    The potentially catastrophic impact of an epidemic specially those due to bioterrorist attack, makes developing effective detection methods essential for public health. Current detection methods trade off reliability of alarms for early detection of outbreaks. The performance of these methods can be improved by disease-specific modeling techniques that take into account the potential costs and effects of an attack to provide optimal warnings and the cost and effectiveness of interventions. We study this optimization problem in the framework of sequential decision making under uncertainty. Our approach relies on estimating the future benefit of true alarms and the costs of false alarms. Using these quantities it identifies optimal decisions regarding the credibility of outputs from a traditional detection method at each point in time. The key contribution of this paper is to apply Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) on outbreak detection methods for improving alarm function in the case of anthrax. We present empirical evidence illustrating that at a fixed specificity, the performance of detection methods with respect to sensitivity and timeliness is improved significantly by utilizing POMDPs in detection of anthrax attacks. PMID:18693857

  5. The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

    PubMed

    Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

    2016-08-01

    The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. PMID:27026589

  6. Using Decision Analysis to Improve Malaria Control Policy Making

    PubMed Central

    Kramer, Randall; Dickinson, Katherine L.; Anderson, Richard M.; Fowler, Vance G.; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Mutero, Clifford M.; Saterson, Kathryn A.; Wiener, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    Malaria and other vector-borne diseases represent a significant and growing burden in many tropical countries. Successfully addressing these threats will require policies that expand access to and use of existing control methods, such as insecticide-treated bed nets and artemesinin combination therapies for malaria, while weighing the costs and benefits of alternative approaches over time. This paper argues that decision analysis provides a valuable framework for formulating such policies and combating the emergence and re-emergence of malaria and other diseases. We outline five challenges that policy makers and practitioners face in the struggle against malaria, and demonstrate how decision analysis can help to address and overcome these challenges. A prototype decision analysis framework for malaria control in Tanzania is presented, highlighting the key components that a decision support tool should include. Developing and applying such a framework can promote stronger and more effective linkages between research and policy, ultimately helping to reduce the burden of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. PMID:19356821

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    SciTech Connect

    Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

    2003-10-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  8. SANDS - Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Hawkins, L.; He, M.; Ebersole, S.

    2010-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The SANDS project is also investigating the effects of sediment immersed oil from the Deepwater Horizon disaster in April 2010 which has the potential to resurface as a result of tropical storm activity. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support has generated a number of decision support products derived from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments that potentially support

  9. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    PubMed

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise. PMID:26619723

  10. Thermal power systems small power systems applications project. Decision analysis for evaluating and ranking small solar thermal power system technologies. Volume 1: A brief introduction to multiattribute decision analysis. [explanation of multiattribute decision analysis methods used in evaluating alternatives for small powered systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feinberg, A.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The principal concepts of the Keeney and Raiffa approach to multiattribute decision analysis are described. Topics discussed include the concepts of decision alternatives, outcomes, objectives, attributes and their states, attribute utility functions, and the necessary independence properties for the attribute states to be aggregated into a numerical representation of the preferences of the decision maker for the outcomes and decision alternatives.

  11. A systematic approach to embedded biomedical decision making.

    PubMed

    Song, Zhe; Ji, Zhongkai; Ma, Jian-Guo; Sputh, Bernhard; Acharya, U Rajendra; Faust, Oliver

    2012-11-01

    An embedded decision making is a key feature for many biomedical systems. In most cases human life directly depends on correct decisions made by these systems, therefore they have to work reliably. This paper describes how we applied systems engineering principles to design a high performance embedded classification system in a systematic and well structured way. We introduce the structured design approach by discussing requirements capturing, specifications refinement, implementation and testing. Thereby, we follow systems engineering principles and execute each of these processes as formal as possible. The requirements, which motivate the system design, describe an automated decision making system for diagnostic support. These requirements are refined into the implementation of a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm which enables us to integrate automated decision making in embedded systems. With a formal model we establish functionality, stability and reliability of the system. Furthermore, we investigated different parallel processing configurations of this computationally complex algorithm. We found that, by adding SVM processes, an almost linear speedup is possible. Once we established these system properties, we translated the formal model into an implementation. The resulting implementation was tested using XMOS processors with both normal and failure cases, to build up trust in the implementation. Finally, we demonstrated that our parallel implementation achieves the speedup, predicted by the formal model. PMID:22136936

  12. A decision science approach for integrating social science in climate and energy solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Krishnamurti, Tamar; Davis, Alex; Schwartz, Daniel; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2016-06-01

    The social and behavioural sciences are critical for informing climate- and energy-related policies. We describe a decision science approach to applying those sciences. It has three stages: formal analysis of decisions, characterizing how well-informed actors should view them; descriptive research, examining how people actually behave in such circumstances; and interventions, informed by formal analysis and descriptive research, designed to create attractive options and help decision-makers choose among them. Each stage requires collaboration with technical experts (for example, climate scientists, geologists, power systems engineers and regulatory analysts), as well as continuing engagement with decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with examples from our own research in three domains related to mitigating climate change or adapting to its effects: preparing for sea-level rise, adopting smart grid technologies in homes, and investing in energy efficiency for office buildings. The decision science approach can facilitate creating climate- and energy-related policies that are behaviourally informed, realistic and respectful of the people whom they seek to aid.

  13. Training in Decision-making Strategies: An approach to enhance students' competence to deal with socio-scientific issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gresch, Helge; Hasselhorn, Marcus; Bögeholz, Susanne

    2013-10-01

    Dealing with socio-scientific issues in science classes enables students to participate productively in controversial discussions concerning ethical topics, such as sustainable development. In this respect, well-structured decision-making processes are essential for elaborate reasoning. To foster decision-making competence, a computer-based programme was developed that trains secondary school students (grades 11-13) in decision-making strategies. The main research question is: does training students to use these strategies foster decision-making competence? In addition, the influence of meta-decision aids was examined. Students conducted a task analysis to select an appropriate strategy prior to the decision-making process. Hence, the second research question is: does combining decision-making training with a task analysis enhance decision-making competence at a higher rate? To answer these questions, 386 students were tested in a pre-post-follow-up control-group design that included two training groups (decision-making strategies/decision-making strategies combined with a task analysis) and a control group (decision-making with additional ecological information instead of strategic training). An open-ended questionnaire was used to assess decision-making competence in situations related to sustainable development. The decision-making training led to a significant improvement in the post-test and the follow-up, which was administered three months after the training. Long-term effects on the quality of the students' decisions were evident for both training groups. Gains in competence when reflecting upon the decision-making processes of others were found, to a lesser extent, in the training group that received the additional meta-decision training. In conclusion, training in decision-making strategies is a promising approach to deal with socio-scientific issues related to sustainable development.

  14. ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

  15. [Economic studies and decision analysis as tools for decision making].

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Pimentel, Leticia; Silva-Romo, Rodolfo; Wacher-Rodarte, Niels

    2007-01-01

    Management implies decision-making and economics deals with efficiency which means to obtain the best possible results with the available resources, and to compare such results with those that were foreseen. The economic evaluation comprises a set of techniques aimed at comparing resource allocation on alternate courses of action and its consequences. In health care, these results are the overall well-being of the society. This paper summarizes the techniques that are customarily used in economic evaluation, and intends to serve as an introductory text to increasing the ability of the readers to grasp original articles in the field of health economics. PMID:17692169

  16. The Risky Shift in Policy Decision Making: A Comparative Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilpert, B.; And Others

    1976-01-01

    Based on analysis of data on 432 decision-makers from around the world, this study examines the decision-making phenomenon that individuals tend to move toward riskier decisions after group discussion. Findings of the analysis contradicted earlier studies, showing a consistent shift toward greater risk avoidance. Available from Elsevier Scientific…

  17. The approaches for the decision support in case natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyazilov, Evgeny; Chunyaev, Nikita

    2013-04-01

    In spite of using highly automated systems of measurement, collecting, storing, handling, prediction and delivery of information on the marine environment, including natural hazards, the amount of damage from natural phenomena increases. Because information on the marine environment delivered to the industrial facilities not effectively used. To such information pays little attention by individual decision-makers and not always perform preventive measures necessary for reduce and prevent damage. Automation of information support will improve the efficiency management of the marine activities. In Russia develops "The Unified system of the information about World ocean" (ESIMO, http://esimo.ru/), that integrates observation, analysis, prognostic and climate data. Necessary to create tools to automatic selection natural disasters through all integrated data; notification decision-makers about arising natural hazards - software agent; provision of information in a compact form for the decision-makers; assessment of possible damage and costs to the preventive measures; providing information on the impacts of environment on economic facilities and recommendations for decision-making; the use of maps, diagrams, tables for reporting. Tools for automatic selection designed for identification of natural phenomena based on the resources ESIMO and corresponding critical values of the indicators environment. The result of this module will be constantly updated database of critical situations of environment for each object or technological process. To operational notify and provide current information about natural hazards proposes using a software agent that is installed on the computer decision-makers, which is activated in case critical situations and provides a minimum of information. In the event of natural disaster software agent should be able to inform decision-makers about this, providing information on the current situation, and the possibility for more and detailed

  18. Task Analysis: A Top-Down Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harmon, Paul

    1983-01-01

    This approach to task analysis includes descriptions of (1) inputs, outputs, and jobs; (2) flow of materials and decisions between jobs; (3) inputs, major tasks, and outputs of each job; (4) sequence of steps for major tasks; (5) heuristics/algorithms for each sequence step; and (6) information needed to use heuristics algorithms. (EAO)

  19. Factors influencing the decision-making of parental HIV disclosure: a socio-ecological approach

    PubMed Central

    Qiao, Shan; Li, Xiaoming; Zhou, Yuejiao; Shen, Zhiyong; Tang, Zhenzhu; Stanton, Bonita

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Using the socio-ecological approach, the current study aims to identify facilitators and barriers to decision-making regarding parental HIV disclosure or nondisclosure at intrapersonal, interpersonal, and sociocultural levels; and examine the unique contribution of factors at different level of influences to the decision of disclosure or nondisclosure. Design A cross-sectional survey was conducted among people living with HIV in Guangxi, China. A sub-sample of 1254 participants, who had children aged 5–16 years, was included in the data analysis in the current study. Methods Multivariate models using hierarchical logistic regression were employed to assess the association of parental decision regarding HIV disclosure to children with various factors at intrapersonal, interpersonal, and sociocultural levels controlling background characteristics, and detect the level-specific influence on disclosure decision. Results Positive coping with HIV infection and a good parent–child relationship facilitated parental HIV disclosure; whereas high level of resilience and fears of parental HIV disclosure impeded their decisions to talk about HIV status to their children. In addition, the current study recognized specific contribution of multiple ecological levels to parental decisions regarding disclosure to children. Conclusion The socio-ecological model is a promising theoretical framework to guide further studies and interventions related to parental HIV disclosure. Directions for further studies using socio-ecological approach were also discussed. PMID:26049536

  20. Fuzzy Logic Approaches to Multi-Objective Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hardy, Terry L.

    1994-01-01

    Fuzzy logic allows for the quantitative representation of multi-objective decision-making problems which have vague or fuzzy objectives and parameters. As such, fuzzy logic approaches are well-suited to situations where alternatives must be assessed by using criteria that are subjective and of unequal importance. This paper presents an overview of fuzzy logic and provides sample applications from the aerospace industry. Applications include an evaluation of vendor proposals, an analysis of future space vehicle options, and the selection of a future space propulsion system. On the basis of the results provided in this study, fuzzy logic provides a unique perspective on the decision-making process, allowing the evaluator to assess the degree to which each option meets the evaluation criteria. Future decision-making should take full advantage of fuzzy logic methods to complement existing approaches in the selection of alternatives.

  1. Setting the optimal erythrocyte protoporphyrin screening decision threshold for lead poisoning: a decision analytic approach

    SciTech Connect

    DeBaun, M.R.; Sox, H.C. Jr. )

    1991-07-01

    Erythrocyte protoporphyrin (EP) was introduced in the 1970s as an inexpensive screening test for lead poisoning. As greater knowledge of lead poisoning has accumulated, the recommended EP level at which further evaluation for lead poisoning should be initiated has been lowered from greater than or equal to 50 micrograms/dL to greater than or equal to 35 micrograms/dL. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of this EP threshold. A receiver operator characteristic curve was constructed to assess the relationship between the true-positive rate and false-positive rate of EP at various decision thresholds. The receiver operator characteristic curve was constructed with data from the second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1976 to 1980, which included 2673 children 6 years of age or younger who had both blood lead and EP level determinations. Decision analysis was then used to determine the optimal EP decision threshold for detecting a blood lead level greater than or equal to 25 micrograms/dL. The receiver operator characteristic curve demonstrated that EP is a poor predictor of a blood lead level greater than or equal to 25 micrograms/dL. At the currently recommended EP decision threshold of 35 micrograms/dL, the true-positive rates and false-positive rates of EP are 0.23 and 0.04, respectively. As a result of the inadequate performance of EP screening for lead poisoning, when the prevalence of lead poisoning is greater than 8%, there is no EP decision threshold that optimizes the relationship between the cost of screening normal children and the benefit of detecting lead-poisoned children. Erythrocyte protoporphyrin measurement is not sufficiently sensitive to be recommended uniformly as a screening test for lead poisoning.

  2. A Wireless Sensor Network-Based Approach with Decision Support for Monitoring Lake Water Quality

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Chen, Shaoli; Zhu, Xiaomin

    2015-01-01

    Online monitoring and water quality analysis of lakes are urgently needed. A feasible and effective approach is to use a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Lake water environments, like other real world environments, present many changing and unpredictable situations. To ensure flexibility in such an environment, the WSN node has to be prepared to deal with varying situations. This paper presents a WSN self-configuration approach for lake water quality monitoring. The approach is based on the integration of a semantic framework, where a reasoner can make decisions on the configuration of WSN services. We present a WSN ontology and the relevant water quality monitoring context information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment. We also propose a rule-based reasoning engine that is used to conduct decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. To evaluate the approach, we conduct usability experiments and performance benchmarks. PMID:26610496

  3. A Wireless Sensor Network-Based Approach with Decision Support for Monitoring Lake Water Quality.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Chen, Shaoli; Zhu, Xiaomin

    2015-01-01

    Online monitoring and water quality analysis of lakes are urgently needed. A feasible and effective approach is to use a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Lake water environments, like other real world environments, present many changing and unpredictable situations. To ensure flexibility in such an environment, the WSN node has to be prepared to deal with varying situations. This paper presents a WSN self-configuration approach for lake water quality monitoring. The approach is based on the integration of a semantic framework, where a reasoner can make decisions on the configuration of WSN services. We present a WSN ontology and the relevant water quality monitoring context information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment. We also propose a rule-based reasoning engine that is used to conduct decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. To evaluate the approach, we conduct usability experiments and performance benchmarks. PMID:26610496

  4. Cost/Effort Drivers and Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seidel, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Engineering trade study analyses demand consideration of performance, cost and schedule impacts across the spectrum of alternative concepts and in direct reference to product requirements. Prior to detailed design, requirements are too often ill-defined (only goals ) and prone to creep, extending well beyond the Systems Requirements Review. Though lack of engineering design and definitive requirements inhibit the ability to perform detailed cost analyses, affordability trades still comprise the foundation of these future product decisions and must evolve in concert. This presentation excerpts results of the recent NASA subsonic Engine Concept Study for an Advanced Single Aisle Transport to demonstrate an affordability evaluation of performance characteristics and the subsequent impacts on engine architecture decisions. Applying the Process Based Economic Analysis Tool (PBEAT), development cost, production cost, as well as operation and support costs were considered in a traditional weighted ranking of the following system-level figures of merit: mission fuel burn, take-off noise, NOx emissions, and cruise speed. Weighting factors were varied to ascertain the architecture ranking sensitivities to these performance figures of merit with companion cost considerations. A more detailed examination of supersonic variable cycle engine cost is also briefly presented, with observations and recommendations for further refinements.

  5. Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Keiser, K.; Graves, S. J.; Conover, H.; Ebersole, S.

    2009-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The recently awarded Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support will generate decision support products using NASA satellite observations from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments to support resource management, planning, and decision making activities in the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, SANDS will generate decision support products that address the impacts of tropical storms

  6. Entropy Methods For Univariate Distributions in Decision Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbas, Ali E.

    2003-03-01

    One of the most important steps in decision analysis practice is the elicitation of the decision-maker's belief about an uncertainty of interest in the form of a representative probability distribution. However, the probability elicitation process is a task that involves many cognitive and motivational biases. Alternatively, the decision-maker may provide other information about the distribution of interest, such as its moments, and the maximum entropy method can be used to obtain a full distribution subject to the given moment constraints. In practice however, decision makers cannot readily provide moments for the distribution, and are much more comfortable providing information about the fractiles of the distribution of interest or bounds on its cumulative probabilities. In this paper we present a graphical method to determine the maximum entropy distribution between upper and lower probability bounds and provide an interpretation for the shape of the maximum entropy distribution subject to fractile constraints, (FMED). We also discuss the problems with the FMED in that it is discontinuous and flat over each fractile interval. We present a heuristic approximation to a distribution if in addition to its fractiles, we also know it is continuous and work through full examples to illustrate the approach.

  7. Multi-stakeholder decision analysis and comparative risk assessment for reuse-recycle oriented e-waste management strategies: a game theoretic approach.

    PubMed

    Kaushal, Rajendra Kumar; Nema, Arvind K

    2013-09-01

    This article deals with assessment of the potential health risk posed by carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances, namely lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper, chromium (CrVI), zinc, nickel and mercury, present in e-waste. A multi-objective, multi-stakeholder approach based on strategic game theory model has been developed considering cost, as well as human health risk. The trade-off due to cost difference between a hazardous substances-free (HSF) and a hazardous substance (HS)-containing desktop computer, and the risk posed by them at the time of disposal, has been analyzed. The cancer risk due to dust inhalation for workers at a recycling site in Bangalore for Pb, Cr(VI) and Cd was found to be 4, 33 and 101 in 1 million respectively. Pb and Cr(VI) result in a very high risk owing to dust ingestion at slums near the recycling site--175 and 81 in 1 million for children, and 24 and 11 in 1 million for adults respectively. The concentration of Pb at a battery workshop in Mayapuri, Delhi (hazard quotient = 3.178) was found to pose adverse health hazards. The government may impose an appropriate penalty on the land disposal of computer waste and/or may give an incentive to manufacturer for producing HSF computers through, for example, relaxing taxes, but there should be no such incentive for manufacturing HS-containing computers. PMID:23856790

  8. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  9. Using structured decision making to help implement a precautionary approach to endangered species management.

    PubMed

    Gregory, Robin; Long, Graham

    2009-04-01

    Endangered species protection is a significant risk management concern throughout North America. An extensive conceptual literature emphasizes the role to be played by precautionary approaches. Risk managers, typically working in concert with concerned stakeholders, frequently cite the concept as key to their efforts to prevent extinctions. Little has been done, however, to evaluate the multidimensional impacts of precautionary frameworks or to assist in the examination of competing precautionary risk management options as part of an applied risk management decision framework. In this article we describe how decision-aiding techniques can assist in the creation and analysis of alternative precautionary strategies, using the example of a multistakeholder committee charged with protection of endangered Cultus Lake salmon on the Canadian west coast. Although managers were required to adopt a precautionary approach, little attention had been given to how quantitative analyses could be used to help define the concept or to how a precautionary approach might be implemented in the face of difficult economic, social, and biological tradeoffs. We briefly review key steps in a structured decision-making (SDM) process and discuss how this approach was implemented to help bound the management problem, define objectives and performance measures, develop management alternatives, and evaluate their consequences. We highlight the role of strategy tables, employed to help participants identify, alternative management options. We close by noting areas of agreement and disagreement among participants and discuss the implications of decision-focused processes for other precautionary resource management efforts. PMID:19144073

  10. DECISION ANALYSIS OF INCINERATION COSTS IN SUPERFUND SITE REMEDIATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study examines the decision-making process of the remedial design (RD) phase of on-site incineration projects conducted at Superfund sites. Decisions made during RD affect the cost and schedule of remedial action (RA). Decision analysis techniques are used to determine the...

  11. Conflict and Group Decision-Making: A New Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dace, Karen L.

    In the opinion of decision-making scholars, conflict is a natural component of group decision-making. A new direction for conflict and group decision-making theory and research will help dispel the confusion as to the promotive or disruptive nature of disagreement in group decision-making. Conflict literature is replete with descriptions of the…

  12. A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Kidney Transplant Decision.

    PubMed

    Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P; Kaplan, Bruce

    2016-03-01

    A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist health care professionals with decision making tasks. A well-developed CDSS weighs the benefits of therapy versus the cost in terms of loss of quality of life and financial loss and recommends the decision that can be expected to provide maximum overall benefit. This article provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks, such CDSS can help with the often complex decisions involving transplants. First, we review Bayes theorem in the context of medical decision making. Then, we introduce Bayesian networks, which can model probabilistic relationships among many related variables and are based on Bayes theorem. Next, we discuss influence diagrams, which are Bayesian networks augmented with decision and value nodes and which can be used to develop CDSSs that are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of using the Kidney Donor Risk Index as the sole decision tool. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models generalized kidney transplant decisions and show how the influence diagram approach can provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool. PMID:26900809

  13. Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaefer, B.

    1974-01-01

    A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time.

  14. Modelling sustainable development planning: a multicriteria decision conferencing approach.

    PubMed

    Quaddus, M A; Siddique, M A

    2001-09-01

    Development planning is multidimensional in nature. On the one hand, it addresses economic growth, and on the other, it deals with economic development of the whole nation. Sustainable development, on the other hand, emphasizes the need for integration of economics and environment, as well as promoting intra- and intergenerational equity. While the literature deals extensively with the issues of sustainable development, it lacks a prescription of an easy-to-use, yet rigorous, methodology for it. In this paper, we offer a decision conferencing approach to sustainable development planning based on a multicriteria model. The integrated model is presented and applied to a sustainable development planning exercise in a third world country. Sample results are presented and detailed sensitivity analyses show the environmental variables that are of major concern. PMID:11697680

  15. A neuro-expert approach for decision-making in welding environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goel, Vivek

    2000-10-01

    Decision making in welding is very important for achieving a good quality welded joint for the least possible cost. Of particular interest is decision making involving the selection of process, parameters, weld procedure specification, defect analysis and trouble shooting. This research has provided a means of capturing the planning knowledge in a Neuro-Expert System in a form that is capable of learning new information, correcting old information and automating the decision-making process in a welding environment. A strategy is formulated for the representation of knowledge in the form of a neural links and the translation of rules into neural link weights. After training those weights were converted back into rules to find out the inconsistent rules and capture new rules using a new approach. The various job variables affecting the process of welding are identified in detail and a Neuro-Expert system for the selection of process, parameters and weld procedure specification is developed. The neural networks are integrated with an expert system for decision making in welding environment. Apart from providing the initial parameters of welding, the expert system is used to validate the output of the neural network and served as a user-friendly interface for the neural network. Defect Analysis is performed in welding domain by mapping the welding parameters and defect patterns in a neural network. A neural network based approach for representing the knowledge in expert system is utilized for this purpose as the modification and updating of the knowledge was easier.

  16. DAUBERT DECISION APPLIED TO GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Protection of the environment is, in part, dependent on the quality of data used in decision making. Whether the decisions are part of the scientific process or relate to application of the laws governing people and their living conditions, good quality data are required/needed ...

  17. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development

    PubMed Central

    Scott, Nicole M.; Sera, Maria D.; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P.

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of “cognitive entropy” were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured “chunking” of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework. PMID:25698915

  18. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development.

    PubMed

    Scott, Nicole M; Sera, Maria D; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of "cognitive entropy" were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured "chunking" of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework. PMID:25698915

  19. An Integrated Approach to Life Cycle Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chytka, T. M.; Brown, R. W.; Shih, A. T.; Reeves, J. D.; Dempsey, J. A.

    2006-01-01

    Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the evaluation of the impacts that design decisions have on a system and provides a framework for identifying and evaluating design benefits and burdens associated with the life cycles of space transportation systems from a "cradle-to-grave" approach. Sometimes called life cycle assessment, life cycle approach, or "cradle to grave analysis", it represents a rapidly emerging family of tools and techniques designed to be a decision support methodology and aid in the development of sustainable systems. The implementation of a Life Cycle Analysis can vary and may take many forms; from global system-level uncertainty-centered analysis to the assessment of individualized discriminatory metrics. This paper will focus on a proven LCA methodology developed by the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center to quantify and assess key LCA discriminatory metrics, in particular affordability, reliability, maintainability, and operability. This paper will address issues inherent in Life Cycle Analysis including direct impacts, such as system development cost and crew safety, as well as indirect impacts, which often take the form of coupled metrics (i.e., the cost of system unreliability). Since LCA deals with the analysis of space vehicle system conceptual designs, it is imperative to stress that the goal of LCA is not to arrive at the answer but, rather, to provide important inputs to a broader strategic planning process, allowing the managers to make risk-informed decisions, and increase the likelihood of meeting mission success criteria.

  20. Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy, & Society

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts....

  1. Decision Analysis for a Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts. ...

  2. An information theoretic approach for generating an aircraft avoidance Markov Decision Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinert, Andrew J.

    Developing a collision avoidance system that can meet safety standards required of commercial aviation is challenging. A dynamic programming approach to collision avoidance has been developed to optimize and generate logics that are robust to the complex dynamics of the national airspace. The current approach represents the aircraft avoidance problem as Markov Decision Processes and independently optimizes a horizontal and vertical maneuver avoidance logics. This is a result of the current memory requirements for each logic, simply combining the logics will result in a significantly larger representation. The "curse of dimensionality" makes it computationally inefficient and unfeasible to optimize this larger representation. However, existing and future collision avoidance systems have mostly defined the decision process by hand. In response, a simulation-based framework was built to better understand how each potential state quantifies the aircraft avoidance problem with regards to safety and operational components. The framework leverages recent advances in signals processing and database, while enabling the highest fidelity analysis of Monte Carlo aircraft encounter simulations to date. This framework enabled the calculation of how well each state of the decision process quantifies the collision risk and the associated memory requirements. Using this analysis, a collision avoidance logic that leverages both horizontal and vertical actions was built and optimized using this simulation based approach.

  3. Factual Approach in Decision Making - the Prerequisite of Success in Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kučerová, Marta; Škůrková Lestyánszka, Katarína

    2013-12-01

    In quality management system as well as in other managerial systems, effective decisions must be always based on the data and information analysis, i.e. based on facts, in accordance with the factual approach principle in quality management. It is therefore necessary to measure and collect the data and information about processes. The article presents the results of a conducted survey, which was focused on application of factual approach in decision making. It also offers suggestions for improvements of application of the principle in business practice. This article was prepared using the research results of VEGA project No. 1/0229/08 "Perspectives of the quality management development in relation to the requirements of market in the Slovak Republic".

  4. Multicriteria decision approaches to support sustainable drainage options for the treatment of highway and urban runoff.

    PubMed

    Ellis, J B; Deutsch, J-C; Mouchel, J-M; Scholes, L; Revitt, M D

    2004-12-01

    The control and treatment of urban and highway runoff involves a variety of stakeholders in the selection of sustainable drainage systems (SUDS) as the design process needs to consider not only water quantity but also water quality and amenity. Thus, technical, environmental/ecological, social/community and economic cost factors become prime potential sustainability criteria in terms of assessing long-term, cost-effective drainage options. The paper develops a multicriteria analysis methodology for the evaluation and accreditation of SUDS structures within the context of an overall decision-support framework. Approaches independently developed in the UK and France are outlined with the common multicriteria structures defining generic performance criteria together with supporting benchmark standards and exclusion thresholds. A French case study is presented to illustrate the approach and to highlight the inherent constraints and subjectivity embedded in the decision-making process. PMID:15504512

  5. A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach for Estimating the Number of Clusters in a Data Set

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Yi; Zhang, Yong; Kou, Gang; Shi, Yong

    2012-01-01

    Determining the number of clusters in a data set is an essential yet difficult step in cluster analysis. Since this task involves more than one criterion, it can be modeled as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. This paper proposes a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM)-based approach to estimate the number of clusters for a given data set. In this approach, MCDM methods consider different numbers of clusters as alternatives and the outputs of any clustering algorithm on validity measures as criteria. The proposed method is examined by an experimental study using three MCDM methods, the well-known clustering algorithm–k-means, ten relative measures, and fifteen public-domain UCI machine learning data sets. The results show that MCDM methods work fairly well in estimating the number of clusters in the data and outperform the ten relative measures considered in the study. PMID:22870181

  6. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and

  7. A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Personalized Kidney Transplant Decision

    PubMed Central

    Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P.; Kaplan, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    To provide personalized medicine, we not only must determine the treatments and other decisions most likely to be effective for a patient, but also consider the patient’s tradeoff between possible benefits of therapy versus possible loss of quality of life. There are numerous studies indicating that various treatments can negatively affect quality of life. Even if we have all information available for a given patient, it is an arduous task to amass the information to reach a decision that maximizes the utility of the decision to the patient. A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist healthcare professionals with decision making tasks. By utilizing emerging large datasets, we hold promise for developing CDSSs that can predict how treatments and other decisions can affect outcomes. However, we need to go beyond that; namely our CDSS needs to account for the extent to which these decisions can affect quality of life. This manuscript provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. Such CDSSs are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of the Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) as a decision support tool, and we discuss several difficulties with this index. Most importantly, the KDRI does not provide a measure of the expected quality of life if the kidney is accepted versus the expected quality of life if the patient stays on dialysis. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models the kidney transplant decision, and show how the influence diagram approach can resolve these difficulties and provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool. PMID:26900809

  8. The prediction of breast cancer biopsy outcomes using two CAD approaches that both emphasize an intelligible decision process

    SciTech Connect

    Elter, M.; Schulz-Wendtland, R.; Wittenberg, T.

    2007-11-15

    Mammography is the most effective method for breast cancer screening available today. However, the low positive predictive value of breast biopsy resulting from mammogram interpretation leads to approximately 70% unnecessary biopsies with benign outcomes. To reduce the high number of unnecessary breast biopsies, several computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems have been proposed in the last several years. These systems help physicians in their decision to perform a breast biopsy on a suspicious lesion seen in a mammogram or to perform a short term follow-up examination instead. We present two novel CAD approaches that both emphasize an intelligible decision process to predict breast biopsy outcomes from BI-RADS findings. An intelligible reasoning process is an important requirement for the acceptance of CAD systems by physicians. The first approach induces a global model based on decison-tree learning. The second approach is based on case-based reasoning and applies an entropic similarity measure. We have evaluated the performance of both CAD approaches on two large publicly available mammography reference databases using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, bootstrap sampling, and the ANOVA statistical significance test. Both approaches outperform the diagnosis decisions of the physicians. Hence, both systems have the potential to reduce the number of unnecessary breast biopsies in clinical practice. A comparison of the performance of the proposed decision tree and CBR approaches with a state of the art approach based on artificial neural networks (ANN) shows that the CBR approach performs slightly better than the ANN approach, which in turn results in slightly better performance than the decision-tree approach. The differences are statistically significant (p value <0.001). On 2100 masses extracted from the DDSM database, the CRB approach for example resulted in an area under the ROC curve of A(z)=0.89{+-}0.01, the decision-tree approach in A(z)=0

  9. Using explicit decision rules to manage issues of justice, risk, and ethics in decision analysis: when is it not rational to maximize expected utility?

    PubMed

    Deber, R B; Goel, V

    1990-01-01

    Concepts of justice, risk, and ethics can be merged with decision analysis by requiring the analyst to specify explicity a decision rule or sequence of rules. Decision rules are categorized by whether they consider: 1) aspects of outcome distributions beyond central tendencies; 2) probabilities as well as utilities of outcomes; and 3) means as well as ends. This formulation suggests that distribution-based decision rules could address both risk (for an individual) and justice (for the population). Rational choice under risk if choices are one-time only (vs. repeated events) or if one branch contains unlikely but disastrous outcomes might ignore probability information. Incorporating risk attitude into decision rules rather than utilities could facilitate use of multiattribute approaches to measuring outcomes. Certain ethical concerns could be addressed by prior specification of rules for allowing particular branches. Examples, including selection of polio vaccine strategies, are discussed, and theoretical and practical implications of a decision rule approach noted. PMID:2196412

  10. Towards a controlled sensitivity analysis of model development decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Martyn; Nijssen, Bart

    2016-04-01

    The current generation of hydrologic models have followed a myriad of different development paths, making it difficult for the community to test underlying hypotheses and identify a clear path to model improvement. Model comparison studies have been undertaken to explore model differences, but these studies have not been able to meaningfully attribute inter-model differences in predictive ability to individual model components because there are often too many structural and implementation differences among the models considered. As a consequence, model comparison studies to date have provided limited insight into the causes of differences in model behavior, and model development has often relied on the inspiration and experience of individual modelers rather than a systematic analysis of model shortcomings. This presentation will discuss a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling to enable controlled and systematic analysis of multiple model representations (hypotheses) of hydrologic processes and scaling behavior. Our approach, which we term the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA), formulates a general set of conservation equations, providing the flexibility to experiment with different spatial representations, different flux parameterizations, different model parameter values, and different time stepping schemes. We will discuss the use of SUMMA to systematically analyze different model development decisions, focusing on both analysis of simulations for intensively instrumented research watersheds as well as simulations across a global dataset of FLUXNET sites. The intent of the presentation is to demonstrate how the systematic analysis of model shortcomings can help identify model weaknesses and inform future model development priorities.

  11. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    PubMed

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  12. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  13. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Jalal; North, Nicola; Ashton, Toni

    2016-01-01

    Background: Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Methods: Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules) within the decentralised services. Results: Fiji’s centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. Conclusion: The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji’s deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited. PMID:26927588

  14. A Computational Approach to Characterizing the Impact of Social Influence on Individuals’ Vaccination Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Shang; Liu, Jiming

    2013-01-01

    In modeling individuals vaccination decision making, existing studies have typically used the payoff-based (e.g., game-theoretical) approaches that evaluate the risks and benefits of vaccination. In reality, whether an individual takes vaccine or not is also influenced by the decisions of others, i.e., due to the impact of social influence. In this regard, we present a dual-perspective view on individuals decision making that incorporates both the cost analysis of vaccination and the impact of social influence. In doing so, we consider a group of individuals making their vaccination decisions by both minimizing the associated costs and evaluating the decisions of others. We apply social impact theory (SIT) to characterize the impact of social influence with respect to individuals interaction relationships. By doing so, we propose a novel modeling framework that integrates an extended SIT-based characterization of social influence with a game-theoretical analysis of cost minimization. We consider the scenario of voluntary vaccination against an influenza-like disease through a series of simulations. We investigate the steady state of individuals’ decision making, and thus, assess the impact of social influence by evaluating the coverage of vaccination for infectious diseases control. Our simulation results suggest that individuals high conformity to social influence will increase the vaccination coverage if the cost of vaccination is low, and conversely, will decrease it if the cost is high. Interestingly, if individuals are social followers, the resulting vaccination coverage would converge to a certain level, depending on individuals’ initial level of vaccination willingness rather than the associated costs. We conclude that social influence will have an impact on the control of an infectious disease as they can affect the vaccination coverage. In this respect, our work can provide a means for modeling the impact of social influence as well as for estimating

  15. Depression: a decision-theoretic analysis.

    PubMed

    Huys, Quentin J M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Dayan, Peter

    2015-07-01

    The manifold symptoms of depression are common and often transient features of healthy life that are likely to be adaptive in difficult circumstances. It is when these symptoms enter a seemingly self-propelling spiral that the maladaptive features of a disorder emerge. We examine this malignant transformation from the perspective of the computational neuroscience of decision making, investigating how dysfunction of the brain's mechanisms of evaluation might lie at its heart. We start by considering the behavioral implications of pessimistic evaluations of decision variables. We then provide a selective review of work suggesting how such pessimism might arise via specific failures of the mechanisms of evaluation or state estimation. Finally, we analyze ways that miscalibration between the subject and environment may be self-perpetuating. We employ the formal framework of Bayesian decision theory as a foundation for this study, showing how most of the problems arise from one of its broad algorithmic facets, namely model-based reasoning. PMID:25705929

  16. New approaches for real time decision support systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hair, D. Charles; Pickslay, Kent

    1994-01-01

    NCCOSC RDT&E Division (NRaD) is conducting research into ways of improving decision support systems (DSS) that are used in tactical Navy decision making situations. The research has focused on the incorporation of findings about naturalistic decision-making processes into the design of the DSS. As part of that research, two computer tools were developed that model the two primary naturalistic decision-making strategies used by Navy experts in tactical settings. Current work is exploring how best to incorporate the information produced by those tools into an existing simulation of current Navy decision support systems. This work has implications for any applications involving the need to make decisions under time constraints, based on incomplete or ambiguous data.

  17. An automated approach to the design of decision tree classifiers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Argentiero, P.; Chin, R.; Beaudet, P.

    1982-01-01

    An automated technique is presented for designing effective decision tree classifiers predicated only on a priori class statistics. The procedure relies on linear feature extractions and Bayes table look-up decision rules. Associated error matrices are computed and utilized to provide an optimal design of the decision tree at each so-called 'node'. A by-product of this procedure is a simple algorithm for computing the global probability of correct classification assuming the statistical independence of the decision rules. Attention is given to a more precise definition of decision tree classification, the mathematical details on the technique for automated decision tree design, and an example of a simple application of the procedure using class statistics acquired from an actual Landsat scene.

  18. A decision analytic approach to exposure-based chemical prioritization.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A; Egeghy, Peter P; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A

    2013-01-01

    The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical's life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

  19. A Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A.; Egeghy, Peter P.; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A.

    2013-01-01

    The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical’s life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

  20. Improving "At-Action" Decision-Making in Team Sports through a Holistic Coaching Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Light, Richard L.; Harvey, Stephen; Mouchet, Alain

    2014-01-01

    This article draws on Game Sense pedagogy and complex learning theory (CLT) to make suggestions for improving decision-making ability in team sports by adopting a holistic approach to coaching with a focus on decision-making "at-action". It emphasizes the complexity of decision-making and the need to focus on the game as a whole entity,…

  1. Significant Labor Decisions--An Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Polhemus, Graig E.

    1977-01-01

    Major labor cases decided during 1976 did not project a clear or simple path for further Constitutional and statutory interpretation, but the year's labor decisions did reveal a new willingness on the part of the U.S. Supreme Court to depart from earlier views of Constitutional law. (JT)

  2. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    PubMed

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making. PMID:26797229

  3. A Decision Theory Approach to College Resource Allocation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baldwin, Charles W.

    Current budgeting techniques are reviewed in relation to their application to higher education, including (1) incremental budgeting, where decisions are based primarily upon former levels of expenditures, (2) zero-based budgeting, involving the establishment and ranking of "decision packages", (3) Planning and Programming Budgeting System (PPBS),…

  4. Impact of proximity-adjusted preferences on rank-order stability in geographical multicriteria decision analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Jankowski, Piotr

    2012-04-01

    This paper presents a new approach to deriving preferences assigned to evaluation criteria in geographical multicriteria decision analysis. In this approach, the preferences, expressed by numeric weights, are adjusted by distance measures derived from the explicit consideration of a locational structure. The structure is given by locations of decision options and high importance reference objects. The approach is demonstrated on the example of a house selection case study in San Diego, California. The results show that proximity-adjusted preferences for the evaluation criteria can alter significantly the rank order of decision options. Consequently, the explicit modeling of spatial preference variability may be needed in order to better account for decision-maker's preferences.

  5. A decision-analytic approach to the optimal allocation of resources for endangered species consultation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Shelley, Kevin J.; Morey, Steve; Chan, Jeffrey; LaTier, Andrea; Scafidi, Carolyn; Crouse, Deborah T.; Runge, Michael C.

    2011-01-01

    The resources available to support conservation work, whether time or money, are limited. Decision makers need methods to help them identify the optimal allocation of limited resources to meet conservation goals, and decision analysis is uniquely suited to assist with the development of such methods. In recent years, a number of case studies have been described that examine optimal conservation decisions under fiscal constraints; here we develop methods to look at other types of constraints, including limited staff and regulatory deadlines. In the US, Section Seven consultation, an important component of protection under the federal Endangered Species Act, requires that federal agencies overseeing projects consult with federal biologists to avoid jeopardizing species. A benefit of consultation is negotiation of project modifications that lessen impacts on species, so staff time allocated to consultation supports conservation. However, some offices have experienced declining staff, potentially reducing the efficacy of consultation. This is true of the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Washington Fish and Wildlife Office (WFWO) and its consultation work on federally-threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). To improve effectiveness, WFWO managers needed a tool to help allocate this work to maximize conservation benefits. We used a decision-analytic approach to score projects based on the value of staff time investment, and then identified an optimal decision rule for how scored projects would be allocated across bins, where projects in different bins received different time investments. We found that, given current staff, the optimal decision rule placed 80% of informal consultations (those where expected effects are beneficial, insignificant, or discountable) in a short bin where they would be completed without negotiating changes. The remaining 20% would be placed in a long bin, warranting an investment of seven days, including time for negotiation. For formal

  6. Probabilistic seasonal Forecasts to deterministic Farm Leve Decisions: Innovative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and vulnerability are major challenges in ensuring household food security. Climate information services have the potential to cushion rural households from extreme climate risks. However, most the probabilistic nature of climate information products is not easily understood by majority of smallholder farmers. Despite the probabilistic nature, climate information have proved to be a valuable climate risk adaptation strategy at the farm level. This calls for innovative ways to help farmers understand and apply climate information services to inform their farm level decisions. The study endeavored to co-design and test appropriate innovation systems for climate information services uptake and scale up necessary for achieving climate risk development. In addition it also determined the conditions necessary to support the effective performance of the proposed innovation system. Data and information sources included systematic literature review, secondary sources, government statistics, focused group discussions, household surveys and semi-structured interviews. Data wasanalyzed using both quantitative and qualitative data analysis techniques. Quantitative data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Qualitative data was analyzed using qualitative techniques, which involved establishing the categories and themes, relationships/patterns and conclusions in line with the study objectives. Sustainable livelihood, reduced household poverty and climate change resilience were the impact that resulted from the study.

  7. Using Cluster Analysis to Examine Husband-Wife Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonds-Raacke, Jennifer M.

    2006-01-01

    Cluster analysis has a rich history in many disciplines and although cluster analysis has been used in clinical psychology to identify types of disorders, its use in other areas of psychology has been less popular. The purpose of the current experiments was to use cluster analysis to investigate husband-wife decision making. Cluster analysis was…

  8. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: PUBLISHED REPORT

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL-CIN-1351A Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. EPA/600/R-01/104 (NTIS PB2002-102119). Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often ...

  9. Resilience thinking and a decision-analytic approach to conservation: strange bedfellows or essential partners?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Fred A.; Williams, Byron K.; Nichols, James D.

    2013-01-01

    There has been some tendency to view decision science and resilience theory as opposing approaches, or at least as contending perspectives, for natural resource management. Resilience proponents have been especially critical of optimization in decision science, at least for those cases where it is focused on the aggressive pursuit of efficiency. In general, optimization of resource systems is held to reduce spatial, temporal, or organizational heterogeneity that would otherwise limit efficiency, leading to homogenization of a system and making it less able to cope with unexpected changes or disturbances. For their part, decision analysts have been critical of resilience proponents for not providing much practical advice to decision makers. We believe a key source of tension between resilience thinking and application of decision science is the pursuit of efficiency in the latter (i.e., choosing the “best” management action or strategy option to maximize productivity of one or few resource components), vs. a desire in the former to keep options open (i.e., maintaining and enhancing diversity). It seems obvious, however, that with managed natural systems, there must be a principle by which to guide decision making, which at a minimumallows for a comparison of projected outcomes associated with decision alternatives. This is true even if the primary concern of decision making is the preservation of system resilience. We describe how a careful framing of conservation problems, especially in terms of management objectives and predictive models, can help reduce the purported tension between resiliencethinking and decision analysis. In particular, objective setting in conservation problems needs to be more attuned to the dynamics of ecological systems and to the possibility of deep uncertainties that underlie the risk of unintended, if not irreversible, outcomes. Resilience thinking also leads to the suggestion that model development should focus more on process

  10. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    SciTech Connect

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  11. Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach.

    PubMed

    Ortega-Campos, Elena; García-García, Juan; Gil-Fenoy, Maria José; Zaldívar-Basurto, Flor

    2016-01-01

    Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members. PMID:27611313

  12. SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND DECISION ASSISTANCE (SADA) TRAINING COURSE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  13. A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Autonomous Planetary Rover Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zilberstein, Shlomo

    2004-01-01

    The report discusses the: Decentralized Control of Markov Decision Processes. Study the complexity of decentralized control of Markov decision processes, and develop algorithms for finding optimal control policies. Scheduling Contract Algorithms. Develop an optimal method for scheduling runs of a contract anytime algorithm (one that takes the deadline as input) in situations where the deadline is unknown, multiple problem instances must be solved, and a multi-processor machine is available. Planetary Rover Control as a Markov Decision Process.Use the Markov decision process framework to formalize and solve problems in planetary rover control. Adaptive Peer Selection. Use reinforcement learning to maximize the expected down-load speed for a client in a peer-to-peer file sharing system.

  14. Thinking styles and decision making: A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Wendy J; Fletcher, Jennifer M; Marks, Anthony D G; Hine, Donald W

    2016-03-01

    This meta-analysis examined whether tendencies to use reflective and intuitive thinking styles predicted decision performance (normatively correct responding) and decision experience (e.g., speed, enjoyment) on a range of decision-making tasks. A pooled sample of 17,704 participants (Mage = 25 years) from 89 samples produced small but significant weighted average effects for reflection on performance (r = .11) and experience (r = .14). Intuition was negatively associated with performance (r = -.09) but positively associated with experience (r = .06). Moderation analyses using 499 effect sizes revealed heterogeneity across task-theory match/mismatch, task type, description-based versus experience-based decisions, time pressure, age, and measure type. Effects of both thinking styles were strongest when the task matched the theoretical strengths of the thinking style (up to r = .29). Specific tasks that produced the largest thinking style effects (up to r = .35) were also consistent with system characteristics. Time pressure weakened the effects of reflection, but not intuition, on performance. Effect sizes for reflection on performance were largest for individuals aged either 12 to 18 years or 25+ (up to r = .18), and the effects of both reflection and intuition on experience were largest for adults aged 25+ (up to r = .27). Overall, our results indicate that associations between thinking styles and decision outcomes are context dependent. To improve decision performance and experience, decision architects and educators should carefully consider both individual differences in the decision maker and the nature of the decision task. PMID:26436538

  15. The application of decision analysis to life support research and technology development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ballin, Mark G.

    1994-01-01

    Applied research and technology development is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Decision making regarding which technologies to advance and what resources to devote to them is a challenging but essential task. In the application of life support technology to future manned space flight, new technology concepts typically are characterized by nonexistent data and rough approximations of technology performance, uncertain future flight program needs, and a complex, time-intensive process to develop technology to a flight-ready status. Decision analysis is a quantitative, logic-based discipline that imposes formalism and structure to complex problems. It also accounts for the limits of knowledge that may be available at the time a decision is needed. The utility of decision analysis to life support technology R & D was evaluated by applying it to two case studies. The methodology was found to provide insight that is not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

  16. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  17. A novel anomaly detection approach based on clustering and decision-level fusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, Shengwei; Zhang, Ye

    2015-09-01

    In hyperspectral image processing, anomaly detection is a valuable way of searching targets whose spectral characteristics are not known, and the estimation of background signals is the key procedure. On account of the high dimensionality and complexity of hyperspectral image, dimensionality reduction and background suppression is necessary. In addition, the complementarity of different anomaly detection algorithms can be utilized to improve the effectiveness of anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose a novel method of anomaly detection, which is based on clustering of optimized K-means and decision-level fusion. In our proposed method, pixels with similar features are firstly clustered using an optimized k-means method. Secondly, dimensionality reduction is conducted using principle component analysis to reduce the amount of calculation. Then, to increase the accuracy of detection and decrease the false-alarm ratio, both Reed-Xiaoli (RX) and Kernel RX algorithm are used on processed image. Lastly, a decision-level fusion is processed on the detection results. A simulated hyperspectral image and a real hyperspectral one are both used to evaluate the performance of our proposed method. Visual analysis and quantative analysis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves show that our algorithm can achieve better performance when compared with other classic approaches and state-of-the-art approaches.

  18. A Decision Tree Approach to the Interpretation of Multivariate Statistical Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fok, Lillian Y.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Discusses the nature, power, and limitations of four multivariate techniques: factor analysis, multiple analysis of variance, multiple regression, and multiple discriminant analysis. Shows how decision trees assist in interpreting results. (SK)

  19. Architecture-Level Dependability Analysis of a Medical Decision Support System

    SciTech Connect

    Pullum, Laura L; Symons, Christopher T; Patton, Robert M; Beckerman, Barbara G

    2010-01-01

    Recent advances in techniques such as image analysis, text analysis and machine learning have shown great potential to assist physicians in detecting and diagnosing health issues in patients. In this paper, we describe the approach and findings of an architecture-level dependability analysis for a mammography decision support system that incorporates these techniques. The goal of the research described in this paper is to provide an initial understanding of the dependability issues, particularly the potential failure modes and severity, in order to identify areas of potential high risk. The results will guide design decisions and provide the basis of a dependability and performance evaluation program.

  20. Concurrent approach for evolving compact decision rule sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmelstein, Robert E.; Hammack, Lonnie P.; Lamont, Gary B.

    1999-02-01

    The induction of decision rules from data is important to many disciplines, including artificial intelligence and pattern recognition. To improve the state of the art in this area, we introduced the genetic rule and classifier construction environment (GRaCCE). It was previously shown that GRaCCE consistently evolved decision rule sets from data, which were significantly more compact than those produced by other methods (such as decision tree algorithms). The primary disadvantage of GRaCCe, however, is its relatively poor run-time execution performance. In this paper, a concurrent version of the GRaCCE architecture is introduced, which improves the efficiency of the original algorithm. A prototype of the algorithm is tested on an in- house parallel processor configuration and the results are discussed.

  1. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    SciTech Connect

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  2. Adaptive leadership: a novel approach for family decision making.

    PubMed

    Adams, Judith; Bailey, Donald E; Anderson, Ruth A; Galanos, Anthony N

    2013-03-01

    Family members of intensive care unit (ICU) patients want to be involved in decision making, but they may not be best served by being placed in the position of having to solve problems for which they lack knowledge and skills. This case report presents an exemplar family meeting in the ICU led by a palliative care specialist, with discussion about the strategies used to improve the capacity of the family to make a decision consistent with the patient's goals. These strategies are presented through the lens of Adaptive Leadership. PMID:22663140

  3. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  4. A data mining approach to optimize pellets manufacturing process based on a decision tree algorithm.

    PubMed

    Ronowicz, Joanna; Thommes, Markus; Kleinebudde, Peter; Krysiński, Jerzy

    2015-06-20

    The present study is focused on the thorough analysis of cause-effect relationships between pellet formulation characteristics (pellet composition as well as process parameters) and the selected quality attribute of the final product. The shape using the aspect ratio value expressed the quality of pellets. A data matrix for chemometric analysis consisted of 224 pellet formulations performed by means of eight different active pharmaceutical ingredients and several various excipients, using different extrusion/spheronization process conditions. The data set contained 14 input variables (both formulation and process variables) and one output variable (pellet aspect ratio). A tree regression algorithm consistent with the Quality by Design concept was applied to obtain deeper understanding and knowledge of formulation and process parameters affecting the final pellet sphericity. The clear interpretable set of decision rules were generated. The spehronization speed, spheronization time, number of holes and water content of extrudate have been recognized as the key factors influencing pellet aspect ratio. The most spherical pellets were achieved by using a large number of holes during extrusion, a high spheronizer speed and longer time of spheronization. The described data mining approach enhances knowledge about pelletization process and simultaneously facilitates searching for the optimal process conditions which are necessary to achieve ideal spherical pellets, resulting in good flow characteristics. This data mining approach can be taken into consideration by industrial formulation scientists to support rational decision making in the field of pellets technology. PMID:25835791

  5. Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach with Hesitant Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Juan-juan; Wang, Jian-qiang; Wang, Jing; Chen, Xiao-hong

    2014-01-01

    The definition of hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (HIVIFSs) is developed based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs) and hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs). Then, some operations on HIVIFSs are introduced in detail, and their properties are further discussed. In addition, some hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number aggregation operators based on t-conorms and t-norms are proposed, which can be used to aggregate decision-makers' information in multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. Some valuable proposals of these operators are studied. In particular, based on algebraic and Einstein t-conorms and t-norms, some hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy algebraic aggregation operators and Einstein aggregation operators can be obtained, respectively. Furthermore, an approach of MCDM problems based on the proposed aggregation operators is given using hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed approach, and the study is supported by a sensitivity analysis and a comparison analysis. PMID:24983009

  6. A Comparison of Decision Theoretic Approaches to Adjusting Cut Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Druva-Roush, Cynthia Ann; And Others

    Methods of adjusting cut scores used in placement decisions are examined empirically. Admission and performance variables are used to study alternate methods of adjusting cut scores for placement in standard and accelerated rhetoric courses in a large university setting, with the predicted variable being success or failure as measured by…

  7. Understanding Decision Making in Teachers' Curriculum Design Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boschman, Ferry; McKenney, Susan; Voogt, Joke

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to reach a better understanding of the intuitive decisions teachers make when designing a technology-rich learning environment. A multiple case-study design was employed to examine what kinds of factors (external priorities, existing orientations or practical concerns) influence design interactions of teams of…

  8. What Satisfies Students?: Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision Tree Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora

    2004-01-01

    To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study uses regression and decision tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student-opinion data. A data mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three measures of general satisfaction. The…

  9. Effect of Epistemic Uncertainty Modeling Approach on Decision-Making: Example using Equipment Performance Indicator

    SciTech Connect

    Dana Kelly; Robert Youngblood

    2012-06-01

    Quantitative risk assessments are an integral part of risk-informed regulation of current and future nuclear plants in the U.S. The Bayesian approach to uncertainty, in which both stochastic and epistemic uncertainties are represented with precise probability distributions, is the standard approach to modeling uncertainties in such quantitative risk assessments. However, there are long-standing criticisms of the Bayesian approach to epistemic uncertainty from many perspectives, and a number of alternative approaches have been proposed. Among these alternatives, the most promising (and most rapidly developing) would appear to be the concept of imprecise probability. In this paper, we employ a performance indicator example to focus the discussion. We first give a short overview of the traditional Bayesian paradigm and review some its controversial aspects, for example, issues with so-called noninformative prior distributions. We then discuss how the imprecise probability approach treats these issues and compare it with two other approaches: sensitivity analysis and hierarchical Bayes modeling. We conclude with some practical implications for risk-informed decision making.

  10. Rule-based analysis of pilot decisions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewis, C. M.

    1985-01-01

    The application of the rule identification technique to the analysis of human performance data is proposed. The relation between the language and identifiable consistencies is discussed. The advantages of production system models for the description of complex human behavior are studied. The use of a Monte Carlo significance testing procedure to assure the validity of the rule identification is examined. An example of the rule-based analysis of Palmer's (1983) data is presented.

  11. A Simplified Decision Support Approach for Evaluating Wetlands Ecosystem Services

    EPA Science Inventory

    We will be presenting a simplified approach to evaluating ecosystem services provided by freshwater wetlands restoration. Our approach is based on an existing functional assessment approach developed by Golet and Miller for the State of Rhode Island, and modified by Miller for ap...

  12. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  13. The analysis of the pilot's cognitive and decision processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curry, R. E.

    1975-01-01

    Articles are presented on pilot performance in zero-visibility precision approach, failure detection by pilots during automatic landing, experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches, a multinomial maximum likelihood program, and a random search algorithm for laboratory computers. Other topics discussed include detection of system failures in multi-axis tasks and changes in pilot workload during an instrument landing.

  14. Integrated approach using data mining-based decision tree and object-based image analysis for high-resolution urban mapping of WorldView-2 satellite sensor data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamedianfar, Alireza; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd

    2016-04-01

    This paper integrates decision tree-based data mining (DM) and object-based image analysis (OBIA) to provide a transferable model for the detailed characterization of urban land-cover classes using WorldView-2 (WV-2) satellite images. Many articles have been published on OBIA in recent years based on DM for different applications. However, less attention has been paid to the generation of a transferable model for characterizing detailed urban land cover features. Three subsets of WV-2 images were used in this paper to generate transferable OBIA rule-sets. Many features were explored by using a DM algorithm, which created the classification rules as a decision tree (DT) structure from the first study area. The developed DT algorithm was applied to object-based classifications in the first study area. After this process, we validated the capability and transferability of the classification rules into second and third subsets. Detailed ground truth samples were collected to assess the classification results. The first, second, and third study areas achieved 88%, 85%, and 85% overall accuracies, respectively. Results from the investigation indicate that DM was an efficient method to provide the optimal and transferable classification rules for OBIA, which accelerates the rule-sets creation stage in the OBIA classification domain.

  15. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to approach genomic analysis that

  16. Decision analysis as a life support technology assessment capability.

    PubMed

    Ballin, M G

    1995-01-01

    Applied research and technology development is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Decision making regarding which technologies to advance and what resources to devote to them is a challenging but essential task, especially in a resource-constrained environment. In the application of life support technology to future manned space flight, new technology concepts typically are characterized by rough approximations of technology performance, uncertain future flight program needs, and a complex, time-intensive process to develop technology to a flight-ready status. Decision analysis is a quantitative, logic-based discipline that imposes formalism and structure to complex problems confronting a decision maker. It also accounts for the limits of knowledge available at the time a decision is needed. The utility of decision analysis to life support technology R&D was evaluated by applying it to two case studies. The methodology was found to provide useful insight for making technology development resource allocation decisions. PMID:11538570

  17. Experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curry, R. E.; Lauber, J. K.; Billings, C. E.

    1975-01-01

    A simulation task is reported which incorporates both kinds of variables, informational and psychological, to successfully study pilot decision making behavior in the laboratory. Preliminary experiments in the measurement of decisions and the inducement of stress in simulated low visibility approaches are described.

  18. Employing Conjoint Analysis in Making Compensation Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kienast, Philip; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Describes a method employing conjoint analysis that generates utility/cost ratios for various elements of the compensation package. Its superiority to simple preference surveys is examined. Results of a study of the use of this method in fringe benefit planning in a large financial institution are reported. (Author/JAC)

  19. Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

    PubMed

    Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

    2013-10-01

    Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. PMID:23869557

  20. An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2015-04-01

    The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

  1. Do choosing wisely tools meet criteria for patient decision aids? A descriptive analysis of patient materials

    PubMed Central

    Légaré, France; Hébert, Jessica; Goh, Larissa; Lewis, Krystina B; Leiva Portocarrero, Maria Ester; Robitaille, Hubert; Stacey, Dawn

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Choosing Wisely is a remarkable physician-led campaign to reduce unnecessary or harmful health services. Some of the literature identifies Choosing Wisely as a shared decision-making approach. We evaluated the patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada to determine whether they meet the criteria for shared decision-making tools known as patient decision aids. Design Descriptive analysis of all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials. Data source In May 2015, we selected all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials from its official website. Main outcomes and measures Four team members independently extracted characteristics of the English materials using the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) modified 16-item minimum criteria for qualifying and certifying patient decision aids. The research team discussed discrepancies between data extractors and reached a consensus. Descriptive analysis was conducted. Results Of the 24 patient materials assessed, 12 were about treatments, 11 were about screening and 1 was about prevention. The median score for patient materials using IPDAS criteria was 10/16 (range: 8–11) for screening topics and 6/12 (range: 6–9) for prevention and treatment topics. Commonly missed criteria were stating the decision (21/24 did not), providing balanced information on option benefits/harms (24/24 did not), citing evidence (24/24 did not) and updating policy (24/24 did not). Out of 24 patient materials, only 2 met the 6 IPDAS criteria to qualify as patient decision aids, and neither of these 2 met the 6 certifying criteria. Conclusions Patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada do not meet the IPDAS minimal qualifying or certifying criteria for patient decision aids. Modifications to the Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials would help to ensure that they qualify as patient decision aids and thus as more effective shared decision-making tools. PMID:27566638

  2. Decision analysis framework for evaluating CTBT seismic verification options

    SciTech Connect

    Judd, B.R.; Strait, R.S.; Younker, L.W.

    1986-09-01

    This report describes a decision analysis framework for evaluating seismic verification options for a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In addition to providing policy makers with insights into the relative merits of different options, the framework is intended to assist in formulating and evaluating political decisions - such as responses to evidence of violations - and in setting research priorities related to the options. To provide these broad analytical capabilities to decision makers, the framework incorporates a wide variety of issues. These include seismic monitoring capabilities, evasion possibilities, evidence produced by seismic systems, US response to the evidence, the dependence between US and Soviet decision-making, and the relative values of possible outcomes to the US and the Soviet Union. An added benefit of the framework is its potential use to improve communication about these CTBT verification issues among US experts and decision makers. The framework has been implemented on a portable microcomputer to facilitate this communication through demonstration and rapid evaluation of alternative judgments and policy choices. The report presents the framework and its application in four parts. The first part describes the decision analysis framework and the types of analytical results produced. In the second part, the framework is used to evaluate representative seismic verification options. The third part describes the results of sensitivity analyses that determine the relative importance of the uncertainties or subjective judgments that influence the evaluation of the options. The fourth (and final) part summaries conclusions and presents implications of the sample analytical results for further research and for policy-making related to CTBT verification. The fourth section also describes the next steps in the development and use of the decision analysis framework.

  3. Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.

    PubMed

    Kubbinga, Marlies; Langguth, Peter; Barends, Dirk

    2013-07-01

    This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers. PMID:23280474

  4. Application of a Scientific Ethics Approach to Sport Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zeigler, Earle F.

    1980-01-01

    Application of the scientific method is discussed in relation to ethics in sports. A scientific ethics approach can and should be used in the present and the future development and clarification of values and ethics in sports. The amateur-professional controversy in sports is used as an example to clarify possible uses of this approach. (JN)

  5. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  6. Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

    PubMed

    Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

    2014-08-01

    Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions. PMID:25198609

  7. Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selby, Richard W.; Porter, Adam A.

    1988-01-01

    A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.

  8. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  9. Application of multicriteria decision analysis in health care: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Xiao, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Background The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in health care has become common. However, the literature lacks systematic review trend analysis on the application of MCDA in health care. Aim To systematically identify applications of MCDA to the areas of health care, and to report on publication trends. Methods English language studies published from January 1, 1980 until October 1, 2013 were included. Electronic databases searches were supplemented by searching conference proceedings and relevant journals. Studies considered for inclusion were those using MCDA techniques within the areas of health care, and involving the participation of decision makers. A bibliometric analysis was undertaken to present the publication trends. Results A total of 66 citations met the inclusion criteria. An increase in publication trend occurred in the years 1990, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2012. For the remaining years, the publication trend was either steady or declining. The trend shows that the number of publications reached its highest peak in 2012 (n = 9). Medical Decision Making was the dominant with the highest number published papers (n = 7). The majority of the studies were conducted in the US (n = 29). Medical Decision Making journal published the highest number of articles (n = 7). Analytic Hierarchy Process (n = 33) was the most used MCDA technique. Cancer was the most researched disease topic (n = 12). The most covered area of application was diagnosis and treatment (n = 26). Conclusion The review shows that MCDA has been applied to a broad range of areas in the health care, with the use of a variety of methodological approaches. Further research is needed to develop practice guidelines for the appropriate application and reporting of MCDA methods. PMID:25327341

  10. Hierarchical neural networks for autonomous data analysis and decision making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eberlein, Susan; Yates, Gigi

    1988-01-01

    A neural network based data analysis and decision making system to increase the autonomy of a planetary rover or similar exploratory vehicle is presented. A hierarchical series of neural networks for real time analysis of scientific images is used. The system under development emphasizes analysis of multispectral images by classifier and feature detector neural networks, to provide information on the mineral composition of a scene. A hierarchy of alternating analysis and decision making networks is being developed to allow increasingly fine scale analysis in regions of the image that are potentially important. It is noted that this system will facilitate both the selection of high priorty scientific information for transmission to earth, and the autonomous collection of rocks and soil for sample return.

  11. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

    2016-04-01

    More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

  12. A decision-analysis methodology for consideration of morbidity factors in clinical decision-making.

    PubMed

    Corder, M P; Ellwein, L B

    1984-02-01

    An explicit and systematic means of incorporation of good medical practice plus individual patient preferences (utilities) for pretreatment and treatment options for a serious but curable neoplastic disease has been investigated. The methodology allows important quality-of-life information to be transmitted to patients, with the goal of providing an improved basis for informed consent. The example of Hodgkin's lymphoma staging and treatment selection is used. Individual patient utilities can be expressed and incorporated into a formal decision analysis for those who face the option of selecting MOPP chemotherapy or of pursuing the staging process in order to obtain a chance of being treated appropriately with irradiation. Equal survival probabilities for the two options are assumed, thus the short- and long-term toxicities (quality of Life) are the determinants of the decision. Patient-derived utilities can be developed for the 15 categories of anticipated toxicity. This, together with probabilistic inputs regarding toxicity severity and duration, will yield expected utilities for each of the decision options. Three physicians were studied and evaluated in the role of a patient. The physicians' toxicity preferences were different and because of this the management option of choice was different for each. This methodology allows explicit patient preferences to be incorporated into medical decisions without the requirement for detailed patient understanding of testing and/or treatment morbidity frequency and severity. PMID:6546469

  13. Decision analysis in the clinical neurosciences: a systematic review of the literature.

    PubMed

    Dippel, D W; Habbema, J D

    1995-12-01

    Clinical decision analysis can be a useful scientific tool for individual patient management, for planning of clinical research and for reaching consensus about clinical problems. We systematically reviewed the decision analytic studies in the clinical neurosciences that were published between 1975 and July 1994. All studies were assessed on aspects of clinical applicability: presence of case and context description, completeness of the analysed strategies from a clinical point of view, extendibility of the analyses to different patient profiles, and up-to-date-ness. Fifty-nine decision analyses of twenty-eight different clinical problems were identified. Twenty-eight analyses were based on the theory of subjective expected utility, twelve on cost-effectiveness analysis. Four studies used ROC analysis, and fifteen were risk-, or risk-benefit analyses. At least six studies could have been improved by more elaborately disclosing the context of the clinical problem that was addressed. In eleven studies, the effect of different, yet plausible assumptions was not explored, and in eighteen studies the reader was not informed how to extend the results of the analysis to patients with (slightly) different clinical characterisitics. All studies had, by nature, the potential to promote insight into the clinical problem and focus the discussion on clinically important aspects, and gave clinically useful advice. We conclude that clinical decision analysis, as an explicit, quantitative approach to uncertainty in decision making in the clinical neurosciences will fulfill a growing need in the near future. PMID:24283779

  14. A Novel Approach on Designing Augmented Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Using Fuzzified Decision Trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I.

    This paper proposes a new methodology for designing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps using crisp decision trees that have been fuzzified. Fuzzy cognitive map is a knowledge-based technique that works as an artificial cognitive network inheriting the main aspects of cognitive maps and artificial neural networks. Decision trees, in the other hand, are well known intelligent techniques that extract rules from both symbolic and numeric data. Fuzzy theoretical techniques are used to fuzzify crisp decision trees in order to soften decision boundaries at decision nodes inherent in this type of trees. Comparisons between crisp decision trees and the fuzzified decision trees suggest that the later fuzzy tree is significantly more robust and produces a more balanced decision making. The approach proposed in this paper could incorporate any type of fuzzy decision trees. Through this methodology, new linguistic weights were determined in FCM model, thus producing augmented FCM tool. The framework is consisted of a new fuzzy algorithm to generate linguistic weights that describe the cause-effect relationships among the concepts of the FCM model, from induced fuzzy decision trees.

  15. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    SciTech Connect

    Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2007-02-15

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  16. A simulation approach to decision making in IT service strategy.

    PubMed

    Orta, Elena; Ruiz, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    We propose to use simulation modeling to support decision making in IT service strategy scope. Our main contribution is a simulation model that helps service providers analyze the consequences of changes in both the service capacity assigned to their customers and the tendency of service requests received on the fulfillment of a business rule associated with the strategic goal of customer satisfaction. This business rule is set in the SLAs that service provider and its customers agree to, which determine the maximum percentage of service requests that are permitted to be abandoned because they have exceeded the waiting time allowed. To illustrate the use and applications of the model, we include some of the experiments conducted and describe our conclusions. PMID:24790583

  17. A Simulation Approach to Decision Making in IT Service Strategy

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    We propose to use simulation modeling to support decision making in IT service strategy scope. Our main contribution is a simulation model that helps service providers analyze the consequences of changes in both the service capacity assigned to their customers and the tendency of service requests received on the fulfillment of a business rule associated with the strategic goal of customer satisfaction. This business rule is set in the SLAs that service provider and its customers agree to, which determine the maximum percentage of service requests that are permitted to be abandoned because they have exceeded the waiting time allowed. To illustrate the use and applications of the model, we include some of the experiments conducted and describe our conclusions. PMID:24790583

  18. Annotated bibliography on decision analysis with applications to project management

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J.M.; Bryson, M.C.

    1984-02-01

    The results of an extensive literature survey on decision analysis, with specific application to problems in research and development project management, are summarized in bibliographic form. Approximately 215 references are organized by subject matter and also summarized and annotated (several lines per reference) in a separate listing.

  19. Philosophical Foundations for Curriculum Decision: A Reflective Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belbase, Shashidhar

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the author's curriculum experiences under different philosophical, epistemological and theoretical backdrops. The analysis of different perspectives bridges epistemological and philosophical/theoretical lenses to my understanding of curriculum and different curricular decisions. This praxeological experience as a student and…

  20. A critical narrative analysis of shared decision-making in acute inpatient mental health care.

    PubMed

    Stacey, Gemma; Felton, Anne; Morgan, Alastair; Stickley, Theo; Willis, Martin; Diamond, Bob; Houghton, Philip; Johnson, Beverley; Dumenya, John

    2016-01-01

    Shared decision-making (SDM) is a high priority in healthcare policy and is complementary to the recovery philosophy in mental health care. This agenda has been operationalised within the Values-Based Practice (VBP) framework, which offers a theoretical and practical model to promote democratic interprofessional approaches to decision-making. However, these are limited by a lack of recognition of the implications of power implicit within the mental health system. This study considers issues of power within the context of decision-making and examines to what extent decisions about patients' care on acute in-patient wards are perceived to be shared. Focus groups were conducted with 46 mental health professionals, service users, and carers. The data were analysed using the framework of critical narrative analysis (CNA). The findings of the study suggested each group constructed different identity positions, which placed them as inside or outside of the decision-making process. This reflected their view of themselves as best placed to influence a decision on behalf of the service user. In conclusion, the discourse of VBP and SDM needs to take account of how differentials of power and the positioning of speakers affect the context in which decisions take place. PMID:26833106

  1. Comparing Drools and ontology reasoning approaches for telecardiology decision support.

    PubMed

    Van Hille, Pascal; Jacques, Julie; Taillard, Julien; Rosier, Arnaud; Delerue, David; Burgun, Anita; Dameron, Olivier

    2012-01-01

    Implantable cardioverter defibrillators can generate numerous alerts. Automatically classifying these alerts according to their severity hinges on the CHA2DS2VASc score. It requires some reasoning capabilities for interpreting the patient's data. We compared two approaches for implementing the reasoning module. One is based on the Drools engine, and the other is based on semantic web formalisms. Both were valid approaches with correct performances. For a broader domain, their limitations are the number and complexity of Drools rules and the performances of ontology-based reasoning, which suggests using the ontology for automatically generating a part of the Drools rules. PMID:22874200

  2. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  3. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  4. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    over time. They are part of the Dutch adaptive planning approach Adaptive Delta Management, executed and develop by the Dutch Delta program. Both decision scaling and adaptation pathways have been piloted in studies worldwide. The objective of CRIDA is to mainstream effective climate adaptation for professional water managers. The CRIDA publication, due in april 2016, follows the generic water design planning design cycle. At each step, CRIDA describes stepwise guidance for incorporating climate robustness: problem definition, stress test, alternatives formulation and recommendation, evaluation and selection. In the presentation the origin, goal, steps and practical tools available at each step of CRIDA will be explained. In two other abstracts ("Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region" by Gilroy et al., "The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia, by Kucharski et al.), the application of CRIDA to cases is explained

  5. Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E; Harper, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure. PMID:23252451

  6. Exposure Models for the Prior Distribution in Bayesian Decision Analysis for Occupational Hygiene Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E.; Harper, Martin

    2015-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure. PMID:23252451

  7. Embracing Excellence: A Positive Approach to Ethical Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hinz, Lisa D.

    2011-01-01

    Ethics courses may provoke fear and uncertainty in art therapy students and practitioners if taught from a risk management perspective, which focuses on reducing therapist exposure to risk and avoiding harm to clients. In contrast, a positive ethical approach fosters empowerment, embraces limits, and enhances trust between art therapists and their…

  8. A Simplified Decision Support Approach for Evaluating Wetlands Ecosystem Services

    EPA Science Inventory

    State-level managers and restoration advocates have expressed a desire for approaches that address wetlands services and benefits for two purposes: to demonstrate the benefits of money budgeted for restoration, and to compare proposals when awarding restoration funds for specific...

  9. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: JOURNAL ARTICLE

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL-CIN-1351 Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. Risk Analysis 600/R/01/104, Available: on internet, www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/Pubs/600R01104, [NET]. 03/07/2001 D...

  10. A Decision Theoretic Approach to Evaluate Radiation Detection Algorithms

    SciTech Connect

    Nobles, Mallory A.; Sego, Landon H.; Cooley, Scott K.; Gosink, Luke J.; Anderson, Richard M.; Hays, Spencer E.; Tardiff, Mark F.

    2013-07-01

    There are a variety of sensor systems deployed at U.S. border crossings and ports of entry that scan for illicit nuclear material. In this work, we develop a framework for comparing the performance of detection algorithms that interpret the output of these scans and determine when secondary screening is needed. We optimize each algorithm to minimize its risk, or expected loss. We measure an algorithm’s risk by considering its performance over a sample, the probability distribution of threat sources, and the consequence of detection errors. While it is common to optimize algorithms by fixing one error rate and minimizing another, our framework allows one to simultaneously consider multiple types of detection errors. Our framework is flexible and easily adapted to many different assumptions regarding the probability of a vehicle containing illicit material, and the relative consequences of a false positive and false negative errors. Our methods can therefore inform decision makers of the algorithm family and parameter values which best reduce the threat from illicit nuclear material, given their understanding of the environment at any point in time. To illustrate the applicability of our methods, in this paper, we compare the risk from two families of detection algorithms and discuss the policy implications of our results.

  11. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  12. BUBBLES: an Automated Decision Support System for Final Approach Controllers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chi, Zhizang

    1990-01-01

    With the assumptions that an explicit schedule exists for landings (and takeoffs) at each runway, that each aircraft has declared an IAS for final approach and will be obligated to fly it as accurately as possible, and that there is a continuous estimate of average windspeed on approach, the objective was to provide automated cues to assist controllers in the spacing of landing aircraft. The cues have two characteristics. First, they are adaptive to estimation errors in position and speed by the radar tracking process and piloting errors in the execution of turns and commanded speed reductions. Second, the cues are responsive to the desires of the human controller. Several diagrams are used to help explain the system.

  13. How a Venture Capitalist Approaches an Investment Decision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colbert, Daniel

    2012-02-01

    In this talk, I will provide a high-level overview of the venture capital history, structure, process and approaches to investing in early-stage companies. I will discuss what VCs look for, and share some dos and don'ts for entrepreneurs looking for venture funding. I will close with a description of the Tatarstand CleanTech Fund, and some examples of deals we invested in and passed over and why.

  14. Improving the Process of Career Decision Making: An Action Research Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenbank, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: This study adopts an action research approach with the aim of improving the process of career decision making among undergraduates in a business school at a "new" university in the UK. Design/methodology/approach: The study utilised unfreezing techniques, multiple case studies in conjunction with the principle of analogical encoding, and…

  15. Assessing the Benefits of Wetland Restoration: A Rapid Benefit Indicators Approach for Decision Makers

    EPA Science Inventory

    This guide presents the Rapid Benefits Indicators (RBI) Approach, a rapid process for assessing the social benefits of ecosystem restoration. Created for those who conduct, advocate for, or support restoration, the RBI approach consists of five steps: (1) Describe the decision co...

  16. A new tool for analysis of cleanup criteria decisions.

    PubMed

    Klemic, Gladys A; Bailey, Paul; Elcock, Deborah

    2003-08-01

    Radionuclides and other hazardous materials resulting from processes used in nuclear weapons production contaminate soil, groundwater, and buildings around the United States. Cleanup criteria for environmental contaminants are agreed on prior to remediation and underpin the scope and legacy of the cleanup process. Analysis of cleanup criteria can be relevant for future agreements and may also provide insight into a complex decision making process where science and policy issues converge. An Internet accessible database has been established to summarize cleanup criteria and related factors involved in U.S. Department of Energy remediation decisions. This paper reports on a new user interface for the database that is designed to integrate related information into graphic displays and tables with interactive features that allow exploratory data analysis of cleanup criteria. Analysis of 137Cs in surface soil is presented as an example. PMID:12865746

  17. Investigating Habitat Value in Support of Contaminant Remediation Decisions: Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Peterson, Mark J; Welsh, Christopher John Edward; Druckenbrod, Daniel L; Ryon, Michael G; Smith, John G; Hargrove, William Walter; Giffen, Neil R; Roy, W Kelly; Quarles III, Harry Dewitt

    2008-01-01

    Habitat valuation methods are most often developed and used to prioritize candidate lands for conservation. In this study the intent of habitat valuation was to inform the decision-making process for remediation of chemical contaminants on specific lands or surface water bodies. Methods were developed to summarize dimensions of habitat value for six representative aquatic and terrestrial contaminated sites at the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) on the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. Several general valuation metrics were developed for three broad categories: site use by groups of organisms, site rarity, and use value added from spatial context. Examples of use value metrics are taxa richness, a direct measure of number of species that inhabit an area, complexity of habitat structure, an indirect measure of potential number of species that may use the area, and land use designation, a measure of the length of time that the area will be available for use. Measures of rarity included presence of rare species or communities. Examples of metrics for habitat use value added from spatial context included similarity or complementarity of neighboring habitat patches and presence of habitat corridors. More specific metrics were developed for groups of organisms in contaminated streams, ponds, and terrestrial ecosystems. For each of these metrics, cutoff values for high, medium, and low habitat value were suggested, based on available information on distributions of organisms and landscape features, as well as habitat use information. A companion paper describes the implementation of these habitat valuation metrics and scoring criteria in the remedial investigation for ETTP.

  18. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    PubMed

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs. PMID:22191941

  19. Using the fuzzy majority approach for GIS-based multicriteria group decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boroushaki, Soheil; Malczewski, Jacek

    2010-03-01

    This paper is concerned with developing a framework for GIS-based multicriteria group decision-making using the fuzzy majority approach. The procedure for solving a spatial group decision-making problem involves two stages. First, each decision-maker solves the problem individually. Second, the individual solutions are aggregated to obtain a group solution. The first stage is operationalized by a linguistic quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging (OWA) procedure to create individual decision-maker's solution maps. Then the individual maps are combined using the fuzzy majority procedure to generate the group solution map which synthesizes the majority of the decision-makers' preferences. The paper provides an illustrative example of the fuzzy majority method for a land suitability problem. It also demonstrates the implementation of the framework within the ArcGIS environment.

  20. An engineering approach to modelling, decision support and control for sustainable systems.

    PubMed

    Day, W; Audsley, E; Frost, A R

    2008-02-12

    Engineering research and development contributes to the advance of sustainable agriculture both through innovative methods to manage and control processes, and through quantitative understanding of the operation of practical agricultural systems using decision models. This paper describes how an engineering approach, drawing on mathematical models of systems and processes, contributes new methods that support decision making at all levels from strategy and planning to tactics and real-time control. The ability to describe the system or process by a simple and robust mathematical model is critical, and the outputs range from guidance to policy makers on strategic decisions relating to land use, through intelligent decision support to farmers and on to real-time engineering control of specific processes. Precision in decision making leads to decreased use of inputs, less environmental emissions and enhanced profitability-all essential to sustainable systems. PMID:17656345

  1. Decision aid tools to support women's decision making in pregnancy and birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Dugas, Marylène; Shorten, Allison; Dubé, Eric; Wassef, Maggy; Bujold, Emmanuel; Chaillet, Nils

    2012-06-01

    Support for a model of shared medical decision making, where women and their care providers discuss risks and benefits of their different options, reveal their preferences, and jointly make a decision, is a growing expectation in obstetric care. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of different decision aid tools compared to regular care for women facing several options in the specific field of obstetric care. We included published studies about interventions designed to aid mothers' decision making and provide information about obstetrical treatment or screening options. Following a search of electronic databases for articles published in English and French from 1994 to 2010, we found ten studies that met the inclusion criteria. In this systematic review and meta-analysis we found that all decision aid tools, except for Decision Trees, facilitated significant increases in knowledge. The Computer-based Information Tool, the Decision Analysis Tools, Individual Counseling and Group Counseling intervention presented significant results in reducing anxiety levels. The Decision Analysis Tools and the Computer-based Information tool were associated with a reduction in levels of decisional conflict. The Decision Analysis Tool was the only tool that presented evidence of an impact on the final choice and final outcome. Decision aid tools can assist health professionals to provide information and counseling about choices during pregnancy and support women in shared decision making. The choice of a specific tool should depend on resources available to support their use as well as the specific decisions being faced by women, their health care setting and providers. PMID:22475401

  2. Decerns: A framework for multi-criteria decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Yatsalo, Boris; Didenko, Vladimir; Gritsyuk, Sergey; Sullivan, Terry

    2015-02-27

    A new framework, Decerns, for multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of a wide range of practical problems on risk management is introduced. Decerns framework contains a library of modules that are the basis for two scalable systems: DecernsMCDA for analysis of multicriteria problems, and DecernsSDSS for multicriteria analysis of spatial options. DecernsMCDA includes well known MCDA methods and original methods for uncertainty treatment based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy numbers. As a result, these MCDA methods are described along with a case study on analysis of multicriteria location problem.

  3. Accelerating Policy Decisions to Adopt Haemophilus influenzae Type b Vaccine: A Global, Multivariable Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Shearer, Jessica C.; Stack, Meghan L.; Richmond, Marcie R.; Bear, Allyson P.; Hajjeh, Rana A.; Bishai, David M.

    2010-01-01

    Background Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). Methods and Findings Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18–0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33–0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00–1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. Conclusions This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20305714

  4. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  5. A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Zhu, Xiaomin; Chen, Shaoli

    2016-01-01

    Research on smart homes (SHs) has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate. PMID:27527170

  6. Peering through a dirty window: A Bayesian approach to making mine detection decisions from noisy data

    SciTech Connect

    Kercel, Stephen W.

    1998-10-11

    For several reasons, Bayesian parameter estimation is superior to other methods for extracting features of a weak signal from noise. Since it exploits prior knowledge, the analysis begins from a more advantageous starting point than other methods. Also, since ''nuisance parameters'' can be dropped out of the Bayesian analysis, the description of the model need not be as complete as is necessary for such methods as matched filtering. In the limit for perfectly random noise and a perfect description of the model, the signal-to-noise ratio improves as the square root of the number of samples in the data. Even with the imperfections of real-world data, Bayesian approaches this ideal limit of performance more closely than other methods. A major unsolved problem in landmine detection is the fusion of data from multiple sensor types. Bayesian data fusion is only beginning to be explored as a solution to the problem. In single sensor processes Bayesian analysis can sense multiple parameters from the data stream of the one sensor. It does so by computing a joint probability density function of a set of parameter values from the sensor output. However, there is no inherent requirement that the information must come from a single sensor. If multiple sensors are applied to a single process, where several different parameters are implicit in each sensor output data stream, the joint probability density function of all the parameters of interest can be computed in exactly the same manner as the single sensor case. Thus, it is just as practical to base decisions on multiple sensor outputs as it is for single sensors. This should provide a practical way to combine the outputs of dissimilar sensors, such as ground penetrating radar and electromagnetic induction devices, producing a better detection decision than could be provided by either sensor alone.

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    SciTech Connect

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  8. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlensinger, Adam M.

    2012-01-01

    Modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios use error-correction techniques that approach Shannon s theoretical limit of performance. The authors describe the benefit of closed-loop measurements for a receiver when paired with a counterpart transmitter and representative channel conditions. We also describe a real-time Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in real-time during the development of software defined radios.

  9. Decision Analysis Tool to Compare Energy Pathways for Transportation

    SciTech Connect

    Bloyd, Cary N.; Stork, Kevin

    2011-02-01

    With the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, oil imports, and energy costs, a wide variety of automotive technologies are proposed to replace the traditional gasoline-powered internal combustion engine (g-ICE). A prototype model, Analytica Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM), has been developed using the Analytica decision modeling environment, visualizing the structure as a hierarchy of influence diagrams. The report summarized the FY2010 ATEAM accomplishments.

  10. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-07-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  11. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-12-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision-making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of the MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assessed their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context and the critical issues for the further process.

  12. An Individualized Approach to Cancer Screening Decisions in Older Adults: A Multilevel Framework.

    PubMed

    Breslau, Erica S; Gorin, Sherri Sheinfeld; Edwards, Heather M; Schonberg, Mara A; Saiontz, Nicole; Walter, Louise C

    2016-05-01

    Guidelines for optimal cancer screening in older adults remain unclear, particularly for adults over the age of 75. While cancer screening in older adults may benefit some in good health, it may cause unnecessary burdens in others with limited life expectancy. Thus, a systematic approach to enable individualized cancer screening decisions in older adults is needed. We suggest a framework that guides such decisions through evidence-based approaches from multiple interactions, and that involves the patient, clinician, and healthcare system. An individualized approach considers differences in disease risk rather than the chronological age of the patient. This paper presents a comprehensive framework that depicts the independent and converging levels of influences on individualized cancer screening decisions in older adults. This Individualized Decisions for Screening (IDS) framework recognizes the reality of these interrelationships, including the tensions that arise when behaviors and outcomes are valued differently at the patient, clinician, and healthcare organization levels. Person-centered approaches are essential to advancing multilevel research of individualized cancer screening decisions among older adults. PMID:26941042

  13. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular

  14. Decision Consequence Model (DCM): Integrating environmental data and analysis into real time decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Cimorelli, A.J.; Stahl, C.H.; Chow, A.H.; Fernandez, C.

    1999-07-01

    A critical evaluation of the many environmental issues facing EPA Region 3 has established five major priorities: (1) ozone pollution (and its precursors); (2) impacts of acidification (acid deposition and acid mine drainage); (3) eutrophication of the Chesapeake Bay from atmospheric nitrogen deposition; (4) Cities/Urban Environment (ozone, particulate matter (PM), air toxics are some of the air components); and (5) Climate Change. Recognizing the complex nature of the systems controlling these issues, Region III's Air Protection Division (APD) is developing a decision support tool, i.e., the Decision Consequence Model (DCM), that will integrate and automate the analysis of environmental impacts in a manner that allows them to holistically address these regional priorities. Using this tool the authors intend to consider the interdependency of pollutants and their environmental impacts in order to support real-time decision making. The purpose of this paper is to outline the basic concept of the DCM and to present an example set of environmental indicators to illustrate how the DCM will be used to evaluate environmental impacts. The authors will discuss their process of indicator development, and present an example suite of indicators to provide a concrete example of the concepts presented above and, to illustrate the utility of the DCM to simultaneously evaluate multiple effects of a single pollutant. They will discuss the type of indicators chosen for this example as well as the general criteria the DCM indicators must satisfy. The framework that was developed to construct the indicators is discussed and used to calculate the example indicators. The yearly magnitudes of these example indicators are calculated for various multi-year periods to show their behavior over time.

  15. Development of a decision support system for cost analysis.

    PubMed

    Chae, Y M

    1989-01-01

    Korean hospitals are experiencing an increasing amount of financial difficulty due to government control of hospital rates since national health insurance has been implemented. The decision support system (DSS) was developed to provide cost and revenue information for the services rendered by each department in an effort to reduce costs. This information may be used to identify the causes of financial loss if cost exceeds revenue and to develop budgets for the next year. The DSS was developed using a micromainframe interface approach where the mainframe computer collects and summarises daily cost data and the micro computer allocates the data to each department. PMID:10304295

  16. Group decision-making approach for flood vulnerability identification using the fuzzy VIKOR method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, G.; Jun, K. S.; Chung, E.-S.

    2015-04-01

    This study proposes an improved group decision making (GDM) framework that combines the VIKOR method with data fuzzification to quantify the spatial flood vulnerability including multiple criteria. In general, GDM method is an effective tool for formulating a compromise solution that involves various decision makers since various stakeholders may have different perspectives on their flood risk/vulnerability management responses. The GDM approach is designed to achieve consensus building that reflects the viewpoints of each participant. The fuzzy VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems with conflicting and noncommensurable criteria. This comprising method can be used to obtain a nearly ideal solution according to all established criteria. This approach effectively can propose some compromising decisions by combining the GDM method and fuzzy VIKOR method. The spatial flood vulnerability of the southern Han River using the GDM approach combined with the fuzzy VIKOR method was compared with the spatial flood vulnerability using general MCDM methods, such as the fuzzy TOPSIS and classical GDM methods (i.e., Borda, Condorcet, and Copeland). As a result, the proposed fuzzy GDM approach can reduce the uncertainty in the data confidence and weight derivation techniques. Thus, the combination of the GDM approach with the fuzzy VIKOR method can provide robust prioritization because it actively reflects the opinions of various groups and considers uncertainty in the input data.

  17. The xeroderma pigmentosum pathway: decision tree analysis of DNA quality.

    PubMed

    Naegeli, Hanspeter; Sugasawa, Kaoru

    2011-07-15

    The nucleotide excision repair (NER) system is a fundamental cellular stress response that uses only a handful of DNA binding factors, mutated in the cancer-prone syndrome xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), to detect an astounding diversity of bulky base lesions, including those induced by ultraviolet light, electrophilic chemicals, oxygen radicals and further genetic insults. Several of these XP proteins are characterized by a mediocre preference for damaged substrates over the native double helix but, intriguingly, none of them recognizes injured bases with sufficient selectivity to account for the very high precision of bulky lesion excision. Instead, substrate versatility as well as damage specificity and strand selectivity are achieved by a multistage quality control strategy whereby different subunits of the XP pathway, in succession, interrogate the DNA double helix for a distinct abnormality in its structural or dynamic parameters. Through this step-by-step filtering procedure, the XP proteins operate like a systematic decision making tool, generally known as decision tree analysis, to sort out rare damaged bases embedded in a vast excess of native DNA. The present review is focused on the mechanisms by which multiple XP subunits of the NER pathway contribute to the proposed decision tree analysis of DNA quality in eukaryotic cells. PMID:21684221

  18. Determining location and size of medical departments in a hospital network: a multiobjective decision support approach.

    PubMed

    Stummer, Christian; Doerner, Karl; Focke, Axel; Heidenberger, Kurt

    2004-02-01

    Decisions on the location and size of medical departments in a given hospital network are prime examples of priority setting in health care, which is an issue of growing political importance. As such decisions are regularly characterized by multiple and often conflicting objectives in real-life, this paper integrates the fields of hospital planning and multiobjective decision support. The proposed two-phase solution procedure for our corresponding mathematical programming model does not require a priori preference information. Instead, it seeks efficient solutions by means of multiobjective tabu search in the first phase, while applying clustering in the second phase to allow the decision makers to interactively explore the solution space until the "best" configuration is determined. The real-world applicability of our approach is illustrated through a numerical example based on hospital data from Germany. PMID:14977095

  19. A Grounded Theory Approach to the Development of a Framework for Researching Children's Decision-Making Skills within Design and Technology Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mettas, Alexandros; Norman, Eddie

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the establishment of a framework for researching children's decision-making skills in design and technology education through taking a grounded theory approach. Three data sources were used: (1) analysis of available literature; (2) curriculum analysis and interviews with teachers concerning their practice in relation to their…

  20. Strategic Technology Investment Analysis: An Integrated System Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adumitroaie, V.; Weisbin, C. R.

    2010-01-01

    Complex technology investment decisions within NASA are increasingly difficult to make such that the end results are satisfying the technical objectives and all the organizational constraints. Due to a restricted science budget environment and numerous required technology developments, the investment decisions need to take into account not only the functional impact on the program goals, but also development uncertainties and cost variations along with maintaining a healthy workforce. This paper describes an approach for optimizing and qualifying technology investment portfolios from the perspective of an integrated system model. The methodology encompasses multi-attribute decision theory elements and sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of the degree of robustness of the recommended portfolio provides the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy nontechnical constraints. The methodology is presented in the context of assessing capability development portfolios for NASA technology programs.

  1. The First Flight Decision for New Human Spacecraft Vehicles - A General Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaible, Dawn M.; Sumrall, John Phillip

    2011-01-01

    Determining when it is safe to fly a crew on a launch vehicle/spacecraft for the first time, especially when the test flight is a part of the overall system certification process, has long been a challenge for program decision makers. The decision on first flight is ultimately the judgment of the program and agency management in conjunction with the design and operations team. To aid in this decision process, a NASA team undertook the task to develop a generic framework for evaluating whether any given program or commercial provider has sufficiently complete and balanced plans in place to allow crewmembers to safely fly on human spaceflight systems for the first time. It was the team s goal to establish a generic framework that could easily be applied to any new system, although the system design and intended mission would require specific assessment. Historical data shows that there are multiple approaches that have been successful in first flight with crew. These approaches have always been tailored to the specific system design, mission objectives, and launch environment. Because specific approaches may vary significantly between different system designs and situations, prescriptive instructions or thorough checklists cannot be provided ahead of time. There are, however, certain general approaches that should be applied in thinking through the decision for first flight. This paper addresses some of the most important factors to consider when developing a new system or evaluating an existing system for whether or not it is safe to fly humans to/from space. In the simplest terms, it is time to fly crew for the first time when it is safe to do so and the benefit of the crewed flight is greater than the residual risk. This is rarely a straight-forward decision. The paper describes the need for experience, sound judgment, close involvement of the technical and management teams, and established decision processes. In addition, the underlying level of confidence the

  2. Using a service oriented architecture approach to clinical decision support: performance results from two CDS Consortium demonstrations.

    PubMed

    Paterno, Marilyn D; Goldberg, Howard S; Simonaitis, Linas; Dixon, Brian E; Wright, Adam; Rocha, Beatriz H; Ramelson, Harley Z; Middleton, Blackford

    2012-01-01

    The Clinical Decision Support Consortium has completed two demonstration trials involving a web service for the execution of clinical decision support (CDS) rules in one or more electronic health record (EHR) systems. The initial trial ran in a local EHR at Partners HealthCare. A second EHR site, associated with Wishard Memorial Hospital, Indianapolis, IN, was added in the second trial. Data were gathered during each 6 month period and analyzed to assess performance, reliability, and response time in the form of means and standard deviations for all technical components of the service, including assembling and preparation of input data. The mean service call time for each period was just over 2 seconds. In this paper we report on the findings and analysis to date while describing the areas for further analysis and optimization as we continue to expand our use of a Services Oriented Architecture approach for CDS across multiple institutions. PMID:23304342

  3. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often confronted with information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. If these health effects need to be contrasted with costs or compared with alternative scena...

  4. Leadership Style, Decision Context, and the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keller, Jonathan W.; Yang, Yi Edward

    2008-01-01

    The poliheuristic (PH) theory of decision making has made important contributions to our understanding of political decision making but remains silent about certain key aspects of the decision process. Specifically, PH theory contends that leaders screen out politically unacceptable options, but it provides no guidance on (1) the crucial threshold…

  5. Approach of Decision Making Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process for Urban Landscape Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srdjevic, Zorica; Lakicevic, Milena; Srdjevic, Bojan

    2013-03-01

    This paper proposes a two-stage group decision making approach to urban landscape management and planning supported by the analytic hierarchy process. The proposed approach combines an application of the consensus convergence model and the weighted geometric mean method. The application of the proposed approach is shown on a real urban landscape planning problem with a park-forest in Belgrade, Serbia. Decision makers were policy makers, i.e., representatives of several key national and municipal institutions, and experts coming from different scientific fields. As a result, the most suitable management plan from the set of plans is recognized. It includes both native vegetation renewal in degraded areas of park-forest and continued maintenance of its dominant tourism function. Decision makers included in this research consider the approach to be transparent and useful for addressing landscape management tasks. The central idea of this paper can be understood in a broader sense and easily applied to other decision making problems in various scientific fields.

  6. Examining Preservice Teachers' Classroom Management Decisions in Three Case-Based Teaching Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Demiraslan-Çevik, Yasemin; Andre, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    This study was aimed at comparing the impact of three types of case-based approaches (worked example, faded work example, and case-based reasoning) on preservice teachers' decision making and reasoning skills related to realistic classroom management situations. Participants in this study received a short-term implementation of one of these three…

  7. Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlater, Nelson J.; Simonds, Charles H.; Ballin, Mark G.

    1993-01-01

    Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA's proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for development of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

  8. Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlater, Nelson J.; Simonds, Charles H.; Ballin, Mark G.

    1993-01-01

    Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA"s proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for the develpoment of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

  9. Visual cluster analysis in support of clinical decision intelligence.

    PubMed

    Gotz, David; Sun, Jimeng; Cao, Nan; Ebadollahi, Shahram

    2011-01-01

    Electronic health records (EHRs) contain a wealth of information about patients. In addition to providing efficient and accurate records for individual patients, large databases of EHRs contain valuable information about overall patient populations. While statistical insights describing an overall population are beneficial, they are often not specific enough to use as the basis for individualized patient-centric decisions. To address this challenge, we describe an approach based on patient similarity which analyzes an EHR database to extract a cohort of patient records most similar to a specific target patient. Clusters of similar patients are then visualized to allow interactive visual refinement by human experts. Statistics are then extracted from the refined patient clusters and displayed to users. The statistical insights taken from these refined clusters provide personalized guidance for complex decisions. This paper focuses on the cluster refinement stage where an expert user must interactively (a) judge the quality and contents of automatically generated similar patient clusters, and (b) refine the clusters based on his/her expertise. We describe the DICON visualization tool which allows users to interactively view and refine multidimensional similar patient clusters. We also present results from a preliminary evaluation where two medical doctors provided feedback on our approach. PMID:22195102

  10. Visual Cluster Analysis in Support of Clinical Decision Intelligence

    PubMed Central

    Gotz, David; Sun, Jimeng; Cao, Nan; Ebadollahi, Shahram

    2011-01-01

    Electronic health records (EHRs) contain a wealth of information about patients. In addition to providing efficient and accurate records for individual patients, large databases of EHRs contain valuable information about overall patient populations. While statistical insights describing an overall population are beneficial, they are often not specific enough to use as the basis for individualized patient-centric decisions. To address this challenge, we describe an approach based on patient similarity which analyzes an EHR database to extract a cohort of patient records most similar to a specific target patient. Clusters of similar patients are then visualized to allow interactive visual refinement by human experts. Statistics are then extracted from the refined patient clusters and displayed to users. The statistical insights taken from these refined clusters provide personalized guidance for complex decisions. This paper focuses on the cluster refinement stage where an expert user must interactively (a) judge the quality and contents of automatically generated similar patient clusters, and (b) refine the clusters based on his/her expertise. We describe the DICON visualization tool which allows users to interactively view and refine multidimensional similar patient clusters. We also present results from a preliminary evaluation where two medical doctors provided feedback on our approach. PMID:22195102

  11. Dynamic sensor action selection with Bayesian decision analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristensen, Steen; Hansen, Volker; Kondak, Konstantin

    1998-10-01

    The aim of this work is to create a framework for the dynamic planning of sensor actions for an autonomous mobile robot. The framework uses Bayesian decision analysis, i.e., a decision-theoretic method, to evaluate possible sensor actions and selecting the most appropriate ones given the available sensors and what is currently known about the state of the world. Since sensing changes the knowledge of the system and since the current state of the robot (task, position, etc.) determines what knowledge is relevant, the evaluation and selection of sensing actions is an on-going process that effectively determines the behavior of the robot. The framework has been implemented on a real mobile robot and has been proven to be able to control in real-time the sensor actions of the system. In current work we are investigating methods to reduce or automatically generate the necessary model information needed by the decision- theoretic method to select the appropriate sensor actions.

  12. Soft Mathematical Aggregation in Safety Assessment and Decision Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, J. Arlin

    1999-06-10

    This paper improves on some of the limitations of conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. It develops a top-down mathematical method for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers and shows how they may be combined (aggregated) into an overall metric, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. Both positively contributing and negatively contributing factors are included. Metrics are weighted according to significance of the attribute and evaluated as to contribution toward the attribute. Aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed soft mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on overlap of the factors and by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to add important information to the decision process. The methodology has been implemented in software.

  13. Clinical decision guidelines for NHS cosmetic surgery: analysis of current limitations and recommendations for future development.

    PubMed

    Cook, S A; Rosser, R; Meah, S; James, M I; Salmon, P

    2003-07-01

    Because of increasing demand for publicly funded elective cosmetic surgery, clinical decision guidelines have been developed to select those patients who should receive it. The aims of this study were to identify: the main characteristics of such guidelines; whether and how they influence clinical decision making; and ways in which they should be improved. UK health authorities were asked for their current guidelines for elective cosmetic surgery and, in a single plastic surgery unit, we examined the impact of its guidelines by observing consultations and interviewing surgeons and managers. Of 115 authorities approached, 32 reported using guidelines and provided sufficient information for analysis. Guidelines mostly concerned arbitrary sets of cosmetic procedures and lacked reference to an evidence base. They allowed surgery for specified anatomical, functional or symptomatic reasons, but these indications varied between guidelines. Most guidelines also permitted surgery 'exceptionally' for psychological reasons. The guidelines that were studied in detail did not appreciably influence surgeons' decisions, which reflected criteria that were not cited in the guidelines, including cost of the procedure and whether patients sought restoration or improvement of their appearance. Decision guidelines in this area have several limitations. Future guidelines should: include all cosmetic procedures; be informed by a broad range of evidence; and, arguably, include several nonclinical criteria that currently inform surgeons' decision-making. PMID:12890455

  14. Group decision-making approach for flood vulnerability identification using the fuzzy VIKOR method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, G.; Jun, K. S.; Cung, E. S.

    2014-09-01

    This study proposes an improved group decision making (GDM) framework that combines VIKOR method with fuzzified data to quantify the spatial flood vulnerability including multi-criteria evaluation indicators. In general, GDM method is an effective tool for formulating a compromise solution that involves various decision makers since various stakeholders may have different perspectives on their flood risk/vulnerability management responses. The GDM approach is designed to achieve consensus building that reflects the viewpoints of each participant. The fuzzy VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems with conflicting and noncommensurable criteria. This comprising method can be used to obtain a nearly ideal solution according to all established criteria. Triangular fuzzy numbers are used to consider the uncertainty of weights and the crisp data of proxy variables. This approach can effectively propose some compromising decisions by combining the GDM method and fuzzy VIKOR method. The spatial flood vulnerability of the south Han River using the GDM approach combined with the fuzzy VIKOR method was compared with the results from general MCDM methods, such as the fuzzy TOPSIS and classical GDM methods, such as those developed by Borda, Condorcet, and Copeland. The evaluated priorities were significantly dependent on the employed decision-making method. The proposed fuzzy GDM approach can reduce the uncertainty in the data confidence and weight derivation techniques. Thus, the combination of the GDM approach with the fuzzy VIKOR method can provide robust prioritization because it actively reflects the opinions of various groups and considers uncertainty in the input data.

  15. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  16. Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps

    SciTech Connect

    Garfi, M. Tondelli, S.; Bonoli, A.

    2009-10-15

    The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.

  17. Three approaches to reliability analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Palumbo, Daniel L.

    1989-01-01

    It is noted that current reliability analysis tools differ not only in their solution techniques, but also in their approach to model abstraction. The analyst must be satisfied with the constraints that are intrinsic to any combination of solution technique and model abstraction. To get a better idea of the nature of these constraints, three reliability analysis tools (HARP, ASSIST/SURE, and CAME) were used to model portions of the Integrated Airframe/Propulsion Control System architecture. When presented with the example problem, all three tools failed to produce correct results. In all cases, either the tool or the model had to be modified. It is suggested that most of the difficulty is rooted in the large model size and long computational times which are characteristic of Markov model solutions.

  18. A National Approach to Reimbursement Decision-Making on Drugs for Rare Diseases in Canada? Insights from Across the Ponds

    PubMed Central

    Short, Hilary; Stafinski, Tania

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Regardless of the type of health system or payer, coverage decisions on drugs for rare diseases (DRDs) are challenging. While these drugs typically represent the only active treatment option for a progressive and/or life-threatening condition, evidence of clinical benefit is often limited because of small patient populations and the costs are high. Thus, decisions come with considerable uncertainty and risk. In Canada, interest in developing a pan-Canadian decision-making approach informed by international experiences exists. Objective: To develop an inventory of existing policies and processes for making coverage decisions on DRDs around the world. Methods: A systematic review of published and unpublished documents describing current policies and processes in the top 20 gross domestic product countries was conducted. Bibliographic databases, the Internet and government/health technology assessment organization websites in each country were searched. Two researchers independently extracted information and tabulated it to facilitate qualitative comparative analyses. Policy experts from each country were contacted and asked to review the information collected for accuracy and completeness. Results: Almost all countries have multiple mechanisms through which coverage for a DRD may be sought. However, they typically begin with a review that follows the same process as drugs for more common conditions (i.e., the centralized review process), although specific submission requirements could differ (e.g., no need to submit a cost-effectiveness analysis). When drugs fail to receive a positive recommendation/decision, they are reconsidered by “safety net”-type programs. Eligibility criteria vary across countries, as do the decision options, which may be applied to individual patients or patient groups. Conclusions: With few exceptions, countries have not created separate centralized review processes for DRDs. Instead, they have modified components of

  19. Composite tissue allotransplantation of the face: Decision analysis model

    PubMed Central

    Cugno, Sabrina; Sprague, Sheila; Duku, Eric; Thoma, Achilleas

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Facial composite tissue allotransplantation is a potential reconstructive option for severe facial disfigurement. The purpose of the present investigation was to use decision analysis modelling to ascertain the expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with face transplantation (versus remaining in a disfigured state) in an effort to assist surgeons with the decision of whether to adopt this procedure. STUDY DESIGN: The probabilities of potential complications associated with facial allotransplantation were identified by a comprehensive review of kidney and hand transplant literature. A decision analysis tree illustrating possible health states for face allotransplantation was then constructed. Utilities were obtained from 30 participants, using the standard gamble and time trade-off measures. The utilities were then translated into QALYs, and the expected QALYs gained with transplantation were computed. RESULTS: Severe facial deformity was associated with an average of 7.34 QALYs. Allotransplantation of the face imparted an expected gain in QALYs of between 16.2 and 27.3 years. CONCLUSIONS: The current debate within the medical community surrounding facial composite tissue allotransplantation has centred on the issue of inducing a state of immunocompromise in a physically healthy individual for a non-life-saving procedure. However, the latter must be weighed against the potential social and psychological benefits that transplantation would confer. As demonstrated by a gain of 26.9 QALYs, participants’ valuation of quality of life is notably greater for face transplantation with its side effects of immunosuppression than for a state of uncompromised physical health with severe facial disfigurement. PMID:19554146

  20. Two hypothetical problems in radioactive waste management: a comparison of cost/benefit analysis and decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, S.R.; Hayward, G.M.

    1982-03-01

    In particular the presentation has argued that Decision Analysis (DA) has considerable advantages over Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), a view which may not be acceptable to practitioners of CBA. The criticism may be levelled that the authors have misinterpreted CBA in order to make their point. As mentioned above, however, the authors have taken a particular view of CBA in order to emphasize the distinction between an approach based in economics, and one based in psychology and management studies. Moreover many formal analyses of public policy today contain elements from both approaches, so that the distinction between CBA and DA may not be as clear-cut as indicated. There is however a basic difference of approach which it is hoped has been spelt out in the studies of chapters 2 and 3; the essential difference is between a device which seeks to determine what is socially best, in an objective manner, and a device to assist a group of decision-makers in clarifying their understanding of a complex decision problem.

  1. Managing maritime automobile terminals: an approach toward decision-support model for higher productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beškovnik, Bojan; Twrdy, Elen

    2011-12-01

    The article describes actions and strategies to obtain higher productivity on maritime automobile terminals. The main focus is on elaboration of efficient and effective organizational structure to model and implement short-term, mid-term and long-term strategies. In addition, with an empiric approach we combined the analyses of current findings in important scientific papers and our acknowledgments in practical research of north Adriatic maritime automobile terminals. The main goal is to propose actions towards increasing system's productivity. Based on our research of the north Adriatic maritime automobile terminals and with Lambert's model an in-deep analysis of limiting factors, user's expectations and possibilities for productivity increase has been performed. Moreover, with our acknowledgments a three-level decision-support model is presented. With an adequate model implementation it is possible to efficiently develop and implement different strategies of productivity measurement and productivity increase, especially in the fields of internal transport productivity, entrance/exit truck gates operations and wagon manipulations. According to our observation a significant increase might be achieved in all three fields.

  2. Decision-Making and Problem-Solving Approaches in Pharmacy Education

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Lindsay C.; Holdford, David A.

    2016-01-01

    Domain 3 of the Center for the Advancement of Pharmacy Education (CAPE) 2013 Educational Outcomes recommends that pharmacy school curricula prepare students to be better problem solvers, but are silent on the type of problems they should be prepared to solve. We identified five basic approaches to problem solving in the curriculum at a pharmacy school: clinical, ethical, managerial, economic, and legal. These approaches were compared to determine a generic process that could be applied to all pharmacy decisions. Although there were similarities in the approaches, generic problem solving processes may not work for all problems. Successful problem solving requires identification of the problems faced and application of the right approach to the situation. We also advocate that the CAPE Outcomes make explicit the importance of different approaches to problem solving. Future pharmacists will need multiple approaches to problem solving to adapt to the complexity of health care. PMID:27170823

  3. Decision-Making and Problem-Solving Approaches in Pharmacy Education.

    PubMed

    Martin, Lindsay C; Donohoe, Krista L; Holdford, David A

    2016-04-25

    Domain 3 of the Center for the Advancement of Pharmacy Education (CAPE) 2013 Educational Outcomes recommends that pharmacy school curricula prepare students to be better problem solvers, but are silent on the type of problems they should be prepared to solve. We identified five basic approaches to problem solving in the curriculum at a pharmacy school: clinical, ethical, managerial, economic, and legal. These approaches were compared to determine a generic process that could be applied to all pharmacy decisions. Although there were similarities in the approaches, generic problem solving processes may not work for all problems. Successful problem solving requires identification of the problems faced and application of the right approach to the situation. We also advocate that the CAPE Outcomes make explicit the importance of different approaches to problem solving. Future pharmacists will need multiple approaches to problem solving to adapt to the complexity of health care. PMID:27170823

  4. Statistical approach to partial equilibrium analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yougui; Stanley, H. E.

    2009-04-01

    A statistical approach to market equilibrium and efficiency analysis is proposed in this paper. One factor that governs the exchange decisions of traders in a market, named willingness price, is highlighted and constitutes the whole theory. The supply and demand functions are formulated as the distributions of corresponding willing exchange over the willingness price. The laws of supply and demand can be derived directly from these distributions. The characteristics of excess demand function are analyzed and the necessary conditions for the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium point of the market are specified. The rationing rates of buyers and sellers are introduced to describe the ratio of realized exchange to willing exchange, and their dependence on the market price is studied in the cases of shortage and surplus. The realized market surplus, which is the criterion of market efficiency, can be written as a function of the distributions of willing exchange and the rationing rates. With this approach we can strictly prove that a market is efficient in the state of equilibrium.

  5. A stochastic approach to uncertainty quantification in residual moveout analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johng-Ay, T.; Landa, E.; Dossou-Gbété, S.; Bordes, L.

    2015-06-01

    Oil and gas exploration and production relies usually on the interpretation of a single seismic image, which is obtained from observed data. However, the statistical nature of seismic data and the various approximations and assumptions are sources of uncertainties which may corrupt the evaluation of parameters. The quantification of these uncertainties is a major issue which supposes to help in decisions that have important social and commercial implications. The residual moveout analysis, which is an important step in seismic data processing is usually performed by a deterministic approach. In this paper we discuss a Bayesian approach to the uncertainty analysis.

  6. Spaceborne power systems preference analyses. Volume 2: Decision analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, J. H.; Feinberg, A.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

    1985-01-01

    Sixteen alternative spaceborne nuclear power system concepts were ranked using multiattribute decision analysis. The purpose of the ranking was to identify promising concepts for further technology development and the issues associated with such development. Four groups were interviewed to obtain preference. The four groups were: safety, systems definition and design, technology assessment, and mission analysis. The highest ranked systems were the heat-pipe thermoelectric systems, heat-pipe Stirling, in-core thermionic, and liquid-metal thermoelectric systems. The next group contained the liquid-metal Stirling, heat-pipe Alkali Metal Thermoelectric Converter (AMTEC), heat-pipe Brayton, liquid-metal out-of-core thermionic, and heat-pipe Rankine systems. The least preferred systems were the liquid-metal AMTEC, heat-pipe thermophotovoltaic, liquid-metal Brayton and Rankine, and gas-cooled Brayton. The three nonheat-pipe technologies selected matched the top three nonheat-pipe systems ranked by this study.

  7. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    PubMed

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. PMID:24772997

  8. Testing alternative decision approaches for identifying cleanup priorities at contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Arvai, Joseph; Gregory, Robin

    2003-04-15

    This exploratory study compares two approaches for involving nonexpert stakeholders in difficult policy choices. Both approaches have as their goal informing members of the public about contaminated sites and involving them in decisions regarding their cleanup. The first approach focuses on technical information and seeks to improve the available knowledge base so that participants can make choices informed by detailed scientific data. This approach is similar in intent to many of the science-based initiatives in public involvement now being undertaken by EPA, DOE, and other federal or state agencies. The second approach, in contrast, focuses on values-oriented information and seeks to improve stakeholders' ability to make difficult choices in light of required tradeoffs across a variety of technical and nontechnical concerns. The results demonstrate that although both approaches help to increase participants' knowledge level, a values-based approach is more successful in terms of helping nonexpert participants to make decisions aboutwhat have historically been viewed as primarily technical problems. PMID:12731826

  9. Seismic slope-performance analysis: from hazard map to decision support system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.; Ho, Carlton L.

    1999-01-01

    In response to the growing recognition of engineers and decision-makers of the regional effects of earthquake-induced landslides, this paper presents a general approach to conducting seismic landslide zonation, based on the popular Newmark's sliding block analogy for modeling coherent landslides. Four existing models based on the sliding block analogy are compared. The comparison shows that the models forecast notably different levels of slope performance. Considering this discrepancy along with the limitations of static maps as a decision tool, a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for seismic landslide analysis is proposed, which will support investigations over multiple scales for any number of earthquake scenarios and input conditions. Most importantly, the SDSS will allow use of any seismic landslide analysis model and zonation approach. Developments associated with the SDSS will produce an object-oriented model for encapsulating spatial data, an object-oriented specification to allow construction of models using modular objects, and a direct-manipulation, dynamic user-interface that adapts to the particular seismic landslide model configuration.

  10. Decision support and analysis tool for planning in a semiconductor manufacturing facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fargher, Hugh E.; Smith, Richard A.

    1994-03-01

    As part of the recently completed Microelectronics Manufacturing Science and Technology (MMST) project, a decision support and analysis tool for planning in a semiconductor manufacturing facility has been developed. Design of the planning system uses an object- oriented approach, and implementation is performed in the Smalltalk programming environment. The system continually maintains a plan for wafer release into a facility, and predicts processing completion dates. The system has been built to run in a distributed environment, allowing simultaneous users in different parts of the facility. The system also provides several types of what-if analysis, both on the existing production plan and on production data. Production plan analysis is used to assist in making operational decisions related to the facility in its current state, such as determining the least disruptive time to take a piece of equipment down for maintenance. Production data analysis, which can be performed independent of the production plan, determines information such as equipment throughput rates to achieve given product cycle-times. All planning is performed using artificial intelligence search techniques, and is based on a time-phased capacity model of the facility. Uncertainty inherent in production data, such as cycle-times, is modeled using fuzzy arithmetic. This tool was used during the final 1000 wafer demonstration for MMST, and is currently being installed in other semiconductor manufacturing facilities. This paper describes the main goals of the planning system, the overall approach to planning and analysis, and a brief description of the current status.

  11. A transdisciplinary approach to the decision-making process in extreme prematurity

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background A wide range of dilemmas encountered in the health domain can be addressed more efficiently by a transdisciplinary approach. The complex context of extreme prematurity, which is raising important challenges for caregivers and parents, warrants such an approach. Methods In the present work, experts from various disciplinary fields, namely biomedical, epidemiology, psychology, ethics, and law, were enrolled to participate in a reflection. Gathering a group of experts could be very demanding, both in terms of time and resources, so we created a web-based discussion forum to facilitate the exchanges. The participants were mandated to solve two questions: “Which parameters should be considered before delivering survival care to a premature baby born at the threshold of viability?” and “Would it be acceptable to give different information to parents according to the sex of the baby considering that outcome differences exist between sexes?” Results The discussion forum was performed over a period of nine months and went through three phases: unidisciplinary, interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, which required extensive discussions and the preparation of several written reports. Those steps were successfully achieved and the participants finally developed a consensual point of view regarding the initial questions. This discussion board also led to a concrete knowledge product, the publication of the popularized results as an electronic book. Conclusions We propose, with our transdisciplinary analysis, a relevant and innovative complement to existing guidelines regarding the decision-making process for premature infants born at the threshold of viability, with an emphasis on the respective responsabilities of the caregivers and the parents. PMID:25023324

  12. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  13. Understanding Career Decision Self-Efficacy: A Meta-Analytic Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Choi, Bo Young; Park, Heerak; Yang, Eunjoo; Lee, Seul Ki; Lee, Yedana; Lee, Sang Min

    2012-01-01

    This study used meta-analysis to investigate the relationships between career decision self-efficacy (CDSE) and its relevant variables. The authors aimed to integrate the mixed results reported by previous empirical studies and obtain a clearer understanding of CDSE's role within the framework of social cognitive career theory (SCCT). For purposes…

  14. A Clinical Decision Support System for Integrating Tuberculosis and HIV Care in Kenya: A Human-Centered Design Approach

    PubMed Central

    Catalani, Caricia; Green, Eric; Owiti, Philip; Keny, Aggrey; Diero, Lameck; Yeung, Ada; Israelski, Dennis; Biondich, Paul

    2014-01-01

    With the aim of integrating HIV and tuberculosis care in rural Kenya, a team of researchers, clinicians, and technologists used the human-centered design approach to facilitate design, development, and deployment processes of new patient-specific TB clinical decision support system for medical providers. In Kenya, approximately 1.6 million people are living with HIV and have a 20-times higher risk of dying of tuberculosis. Although tuberculosis prevention and treatment medication is widely available, proven to save lives, and prioritized by the World Health Organization, ensuring that it reaches the most vulnerable communities remains challenging. Human-centered design, used in the fields of industrial design and information technology for decades, is an approach to improving the effectiveness and impact of innovations that has been scarcely used in the health field. Using this approach, our team followed a 3-step process, involving mixed methods assessment to (1) understand the situation through the collection and analysis of site observation sessions and key informant interviews; (2) develop a new clinical decision support system through iterative prototyping, end-user engagement, and usability testing; and, (3) implement and evaluate the system across 24 clinics in rural West Kenya. Through the application of this approach, we found that human-centered design facilitated the process of digital innovation in a complex and resource-constrained context. PMID:25170939

  15. Ignorance- versus Evidence-Based Decision Making: A Decision Time Analysis of the Recognition Heuristic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Pohl, Rudiger F.

    2009-01-01

    According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments--and its duration--is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of…

  16. An approach for Web service selection based on confidence level of decision maker.

    PubMed

    Khezrian, Mojtaba; Jahan, Ali; Kadir, Wan Mohd Nasir Wan; Ibrahim, Suhaimi

    2014-01-01

    Web services today are among the most widely used groups for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Service selection is one of the most significant current discussions in SOA, which evaluates discovered services and chooses the best candidate from them. Although a majority of service selection techniques apply Quality of Service (QoS), the behaviour of QoS-based service selection leads to service selection problems in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). In the existing works, the confidence level of decision makers is neglected and does not consider their expertise in assessing Web services. In this paper, we employ the VIKOR (VIšekriterijumskoKOmpromisnoRangiranje) method, which is absent in the literature for service selection, but is well-known in other research. We propose a QoS-based approach that deals with service selection by applying VIKOR with improvement of features. This research determines the weights of criteria based on user preference and accounts for the confidence level of decision makers. The proposed approach is illustrated by an example in order to demonstrate and validate the model. The results of this research may facilitate service consumers to attain a more efficient decision when selecting the appropriate service. PMID:24897426

  17. Application of probabilistic and fuzzy cognitive approaches in semantic web framework for medical decision support.

    PubMed

    Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I; Huszka, Csaba; De Roo, Jos; Douali, Nassim; Jaulent, Marie-Christine; Colaert, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    This study aimed to focus on medical knowledge representation and reasoning using the probabilistic and fuzzy influence processes, implemented in the semantic web, for decision support tasks. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), as dynamic influence graphs, were applied to handle the task of medical knowledge formalization for decision support. In order to perform reasoning on these knowledge models, a general purpose reasoning engine, EYE, with the necessary plug-ins was developed in the semantic web. The two formal approaches constitute the proposed decision support system (DSS) aiming to recognize the appropriate guidelines of a medical problem, and to propose easily understandable course of actions to guide the practitioners. The urinary tract infection (UTI) problem was selected as the proof-of-concept example to examine the proposed formalization techniques implemented in the semantic web. The medical guidelines for UTI treatment were formalized into BBN and FCM knowledge models. To assess the formal models' performance, 55 patient cases were extracted from a database and analyzed. The results showed that the suggested approaches formalized medical knowledge efficiently in the semantic web, and gave a front-end decision on antibiotics' suggestion for UTI. PMID:23953959

  18. An interprofessional approach to shared decision making: an exploratory case study with family caregivers of one IP home care team

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Within the context of an exploratory case study, the authors assessed the perceptions of family caregivers about the decision-making process regarding relocating their relative and about the applicability of an interprofessional approach to shared decision making (IP-SDM). They also assessed perceptions of health professionals and health managers about IP-SDM. Methods From November 2010 to October 2011, we worked with one IP home care team dedicated to older adults (the case) from a large primary health care organization in Quebec City, Canada. We identified six of their clients who had faced a decision about whether to stay at home or move to a long-term care facility in the past year and interviewed their family caregivers. We explored the decision-making process they had experienced regarding relocating their relative and their perceptions about the applicability of IP-SDM in this context. Attitudes towards IP-SDM and potential barriers to this approach were explored using a focus group with the participating IP home care team, individual interviews with 8 managers and a survey of 272 health professionals from the primary care organization. A hybrid process of inductive and deductive thematic analysis was used and data were triangulated across all sources. Results Family caregivers reported lack of agreement on the nature of the decision to be made, a disconnection between home care services and relatives’ needs, and high cost of long-term care alternatives. Factors influencing their decision included their ability to provide care for their relative. While they felt somewhat supported by the IP home care team, they also felt pressured in the decision. Overall, they did not perceive they had been exposed to IP-SDM but agreed that it was applicable in this context. Results from the survey, focus group and interviews with health professionals and managers indicated they all had a favourable attitude towards IP-SDM but many barriers hampered its

  19. What Satisfies Students? Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision-Tree Analysis. AIR 2002 Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora

    To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study used regression and decision-tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student opinion data from a sample of 1,783 college students. A data-mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three…

  20. Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

    2014-01-01

    The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system. PMID:24489748

  1. Selecting Essential Information for Biosurveillance—A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J.; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J.; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W. Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

    2014-01-01

    The National Strategy for Biosurveillancedefines biosurveillance as “the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels.” However, the strategy does not specify how “essential information” is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being “essential”. Thequestion of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of “essential information” for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system. PMID:24489748

  2. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  3. A Behavioural Approach to Understanding Semi-Subsistence Farmers' Technology Adoption Decisions: The Case of Improved Paddy-Prawn System in Indonesia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sambodo, Leonardo A. A. T.; Nuthall, Peter L.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This study traced the origins of subsistence Farmers' technology adoption attitudes and extracted the critical elements in their decision making systems. Design/Methodology/Approach: The analysis was structured using a model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). The role of a "bargaining process" was particularly explored to…

  4. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    PubMed

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kaló, Zoltán; Lönngren, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. In 2014, ISPOR established an Emerging Good Practices Task Force. The task force's first report defined MCDA, provided examples of its use in health care, described the key steps, and provided an overview of the principal methods of MCDA. This second task force report provides emerging good-practice guidance on the implementation of MCDA to support health care decisions. The report includes: a checklist to support the design, implementation and review of an MCDA; guidance to support the implementation of the checklist; the order in which the steps should be implemented; illustrates how to incorporate budget constraints into an MCDA; provides an overview of the skills and resources, including available software, required to implement MCDA; and future research directions. PMID:27021745

  5. [The ethical reflection approach in decision-making processes in health institutes].

    PubMed

    Gruat, Renaud

    2015-12-01

    Except in the specific case of end-of-life care, the law says nothing about the way in which health professionals must carry out ethical reflection regarding the treatment of their patients. A problem-solving methodology called the "ethical reflection approach" performed over several stages can be used. The decision-making process involves the whole team and draws on the ability of each caregiver to put forward a reasoned argument, in the interest of the patient. PMID:26675109

  6. Evolution of Decision Rules Used for IT Portfolio Management: An Inductive Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karhade, Prasanna P.; Shaw, Michael J.; Subramanyam, Ramanath

    IT portfolio management and the related planning decisions for IT-dependent initiatives are critical to organizational performance. Building on the logic of appropriateness theoretical framework, we define an important characteristic of decision rules used during IT portfolio planning; rule appropriateness with regards to the risk-taking criterion. We propose that rule appropriateness will be an important factor explaining the evolution of rules over time. Using an inductive learning methodology, we analyze a unique dataset of actual IT portfolio planning decisions spanning two consecutive years within one organization. We present systematic comparative analysis of the evolution of rules used in planning over two years to validate our research proposition. We find that rules that were inappropriate in the first year are being redefined to design appropriate rules for use in the second year. Our work provides empirical evidence demonstrating organizational learning and improvements in IT portfolio planning capabilities.

  7. Systems Analysis - a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruen, M.

    2008-05-01

    In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness.

  8. Systems analysis - a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruen, M.

    2007-06-01

    In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness. This is best done by trained sociologists fully integrated into the processes. The WINCOMS research project is an example applied to the implementation of the WFD in Ireland.

  9. Identification of metabolic syndrome using decision tree analysis.

    PubMed

    Worachartcheewan, Apilak; Nantasenamat, Chanin; Isarankura-Na-Ayudhya, Chartchalerm; Pidetcha, Phannee; Prachayasittikul, Virapong

    2010-10-01

    This study employs decision tree as a decision support system for rapid and automated identification of individuals with metabolic syndrome (MS) among a Thai population. Results demonstrated strong predictivity of the decision tree in classification of individuals with and without MS, displaying an overall accuracy in excess of 99%. PMID:20619912

  10. School Board Decision Making: An Analysis of the Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crum, Karen S.

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this study was to analyze the characteristics in the school board decision-making process and to discover whether school board members are aware of the characteristics surrounding the school board's decision-making process. Specifically, this study examines the decision-making process of a school board in Virginia, and it provides…

  11. School-Leaving Decisions in Australia: A Cohort Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Le, Anh T.; Miller, Paul W.

    2004-01-01

    The decision to invest in education is influenced by a large number of economic, social, family, personal and institutional factors. Many of these changed in Australia during the 1970s and 1980s. Several of the more important of these changes, such as the Equal Pay for Equal Work decision of 1969, the Equal Pay for Work of Equal Value decision of…

  12. Transmission Bearing Damage Detection Using Decision Fusion Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Lewicki, David G.; Decker, Harry J.

    2004-01-01

    A diagnostic tool was developed for detecting fatigue damage to rolling element bearings in an OH-58 main rotor transmission. Two different monitoring technologies, oil debris analysis and vibration, were integrated using data fusion into a health monitoring system for detecting bearing surface fatigue pitting damage. This integrated system showed improved detection and decision-making capabilities as compared to using individual monitoring technologies. This diagnostic tool was evaluated by collecting vibration and oil debris data from tests performed in the NASA Glenn 500 hp Helicopter Transmission Test Stand. Data was collected during experiments performed in this test rig when two unanticipated bearing failures occurred. Results show that combining the vibration and oil debris measurement technologies improves the detection of pitting damage on spiral bevel gears duplex ball bearings and spiral bevel pinion triplex ball bearings in a main rotor transmission.

  13. Spiral Bevel Gear Damage Detection Using Decision Fusion Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Handschuh, Robert F.; Afjeh, Abdollah A.

    2002-01-01

    A diagnostic tool for detecting damage to spiral bevel gears was developed. Two different monitoring technologies, oil debris analysis and vibration, were integrated using data fusion into a health monitoring system for detecting surface fatigue pitting damage on gears. This integrated system showed improved detection and decision-making capabilities as compared to using individual monitoring technologies. This diagnostic tool was evaluated by collecting vibration and oil debris data from fatigue tests performed in the NASA Glenn Spiral Bevel Gear Fatigue Rigs. Data was collected during experiments performed in this test rig when pitting damage occurred. Results show that combining the vibration and oil debris measurement technologies improves the detection of pitting damage on spiral bevel gears.

  14. Output orientation in R and D: A better approach?. [decision making in R and D

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Black, G.

    1974-01-01

    Research and development management is examined as it might be performed under an output-oriented approach in which the company's needs for innovations in various product and production areas were identified. It is shown that a company's R and D program is the aggregate of its needs in various areas of its business. The planning, programming and budgeting approach is applied to R and D. The state of theory on R and D decision making in economics is summarized. Abstracts of articles concerning R and D in industry are included.

  15. Harnessing Ecosystem Models and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Support of Forest Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  16. A decision-directed approach for prioritizing research into the impact of nanomaterials on the environment and human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linkov, Igor; Bates, Matthew E.; Canis, Laure J.; Seager, Thomas P.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.

    2011-12-01

    The emergence of nanotechnology has coincided with an increased recognition of the need for new approaches to understand and manage the impact of emerging technologies on the environment and human health. Important elements in these new approaches include life-cycle thinking, public participation and adaptive management of the risks associated with emerging technologies and new materials. However, there is a clear need to develop a framework for linking research on the risks associated with nanotechnology to the decision-making needs of manufacturers, regulators, consumers and other stakeholder groups. Given the very high uncertainties associated with nanomaterials and their impact on the environment and human health, research resources should be directed towards creating the knowledge that is most meaningful to these groups. Here, we present a model (based on multi-criteria decision analysis and a value of information approach) for prioritizing research strategies in a way that is responsive to the recommendations of recent reports on the management of the risk and impact of nanomaterials on the environment and human health.

  17. An event-based approach for examining the effects of wildland fire decisions on communities.

    PubMed

    McCool, Stephen F; Burchfield, James A; Williams, Daniel R; Carroll, Matthew S

    2006-04-01

    Public concern over the consequences of forest fire to wildland interface communities has led to increased resources devoted to fire suppression, fuel treatment, and management of fire events. The social consequences of the decisions involved in these and other fire-related actions are largely unknown, except in an anecdotal sense, but do occur at a variety of temporal and social organizational scales. These consequences are not limited to the fire event itself. Preparation for the possibility of a fire, actions that suppression agencies take during a fire, and postfire decisions all have consequences, if unknown currently. This article presents an "event-based" approach that can be useful for constructing and systematic discussion about the consequences of wildland fire to human communities. For each of the three major periods within this approach, agencies, communities, and individuals make decisions and take actions that have consequences. The article presents an integrated, temporally based process for examining these consequences, which is similar to others developed in the natural hazards and disaster management literature. PMID:16465562

  18. Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar; Kim, Douglas

    2003-01-01

    The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

  19. INTEGRATING SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS TO IMPROVE WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT IN THE U.S.: TESTING A NEW ORGANIZING APPROACH FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Conducting an integrated analysis to evaluate the societal and ecological consequences of environmental management actions requires decisions about data collection, theory development, modeling and valuation. Approaching these decisions in coordinated fashion necessitates a syste...

  20. Decision-level fusion approach to face recognition with multiple cameras

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeom, Seokwon

    2014-05-01

    Face classification of multiple cameras has wide applications in surveillance. In this paper, the efficacy of a multi-frame decision-level fusion scheme for face classification based on the photon-counting linear discriminant analysis is investigated. The photon-counting linear discriminant analysis method is able to realize Fisher's criterion without preprocessing for dimensionality reduction. The decision-level fusion scheme is comprised of three stages: score normalization, score validation, and score combination. After normalization, the candidate scores are selected and combined by means of a score validation process and a fusion rule, respectively, in order to generate a final score. In the experiments, out-of-focus and motion blurs are rendered on test images simulating harsh conditions.

  1. An MDO augmented value-based systems engineering approach to holistic design decision-making: A satellite system case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kannan, Hanumanthrao

    The design of large scale complex engineered systems (LSCES) involves hundreds or thousands of designers making decisions at different levels of an organizational hierarchy. Traditionally, these LSCES are designed using systems engineering methods and processes, where the preferences of the stakeholder are flowed down the hierarchy using requirements that act as surrogates for preference. Current processes do not provide a system level guidance to subsystem designers. Value-Driven Design (VDD) offers a new perspective on complex system design, where the value preferences of the stakeholder are communicated directly through a decomposable value function, thereby providing a mechanism for improved system consistency. Requirements-based systems engineering approaches do not offer a mathematically rigorous way to capture the couplings present in the system. Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) was specifically developed to address couplings in both analysis and optimization thereby enabling physics-based consistency. MDO uses an objective function with constraints but does not provide a way to formulate the objective function. Current systems engineering processes do not provide a mathematically sound way to make design decisions when designers are faced with uncertainties. Designers tend to choose designs based on their preferences towards risky/uncertain designs, and past research has shown that there needs to be a consistency in risk preferences to enable design decisions that are consistent with stakeholder's desires. This research exploits the complimentary nature of VDD, MDO and Decision Analysis (DA) to enable consistency in communication of system preferences, consistency in physics and consistency in risk preferences. The role of VDD in this research is in formulating a value function for true preferences, whereas the role of MDO is to capture couplings and enable optimization using the value function, and the role of DA is to enable consistent design

  2. 75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-06-22

    ... AGENCY Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY... period for the draft Web site, ``2010 release of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information... analysis; examples and applications; a library of conceptual models; and an online application...

  3. A DNA-based algorithm for minimizing decision rules: a rough sets approach.

    PubMed

    Kim, Ikno; Chu, Yu-Yi; Watada, Junzo; Wu, Jui-Yu; Pedrycz, Witold

    2011-09-01

    Rough sets are often exploited for data reduction and classification. While they are conceptually appealing, the techniques used with rough sets can be computationally demanding. To address this obstacle, the objective of this study is to investigate the use of DNA molecules and associated techniques as an optimization vehicle to support algorithms of rough sets. In particular, we develop a DNA-based algorithm to derive decision rules of minimal length. This new approach can be of value when dealing with a large number of objects and their attributes, in which case the complexity of rough-sets-based methods is NP-hard. The proposed algorithm shows how the essential components involved in the minimization of decision rules in data processing can be realized. PMID:22020105

  4. Decision tree approach for classification of remotely sensed satellite data using open source support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Richa; Ghosh, Aniruddha; Joshi, P. K.

    2013-10-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a decision tree classification (DTC) algorithm for classification of remotely sensed satellite data (Landsat TM) using open source support. The decision tree is constructed by recursively partitioning the spectral distribution of the training dataset using WEKA, open source data mining software. The classified image is compared with the image classified using classical ISODATA clustering and Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) algorithms. Classification result based on DTC method provided better visual depiction than results produced by ISODATA clustering or by MLC algorithms. The overall accuracy was found to be 90% (kappa = 0.88) using the DTC, 76.67% (kappa = 0.72) using the Maximum Likelihood and 57.5% (kappa = 0.49) using ISODATA clustering method. Based on the overall accuracy and kappa statistics, DTC was found to be more preferred classification approach than others.

  5. Different approaches for centralized and decentralized water system management in multiple decision makers' problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anghileri, D.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2012-04-01

    There is a general agreement that one of the most challenging issues related to water system management is the presence of many and often conflicting interests as well as the presence of several and independent decision makers. The traditional approach to multi-objective water systems management is a centralized management, in which an ideal central regulator coordinates the operation of the whole system, exploiting all the available information and balancing all the operating objectives. Although this approach allows to obtain Pareto-optimal solutions representing the maximum achievable benefit, it is based on assumptions which strongly limits its application in real world contexts: 1) top-down management, 2) existence of a central regulation institution, 3) complete information exchange within the system, 4) perfect economic efficiency. A bottom-up decentralized approach seems therefore to be more suitable for real case applications since different reservoir operators may maintain their independence. In this work we tested the consequences of a change in the water management approach moving from a centralized toward a decentralized one. In particular we compared three different cases: the centralized management approach, the independent management approach where each reservoir operator takes the daily release decision maximizing (or minimizing) his operating objective independently from each other, and an intermediate approach, leading to the Nash equilibrium of the associated game, where different reservoir operators try to model the behaviours of the other operators. The three approaches are demonstrated using a test case-study composed of two reservoirs regulated for the minimization of flooding in different locations. The operating policies are computed by solving one single multi-objective optimal control problem, in the centralized management approach; multiple single-objective optimization problems, i.e. one for each operator, in the independent case

  6. Decision analysis framing study; in-valley drainage management strategies for the western San Joaquin Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Presser, Theresa S.; Jenni, Karen E.; Nieman, Timothy; Coleman, James

    2010-01-01

    Constraints on drainage management in the western San Joaquin Valley and implications of proposed approaches to management were recently evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS found that a significant amount of data for relevant technical issues was available and that a structured, analytical decision support tool could help optimize combinations of specific in-valley drainage management strategies, address uncertainties, and document underlying data analysis for future use. To follow-up on USGS's technical analysis and to help define a scientific basis for decisionmaking in implementing in-valley drainage management strategies, this report describes the first step (that is, a framing study) in a Decision Analysis process. In general, a Decision Analysis process includes four steps: (1) problem framing to establish the scope of the decision problem(s) and a set of fundamental objectives to evaluate potential solutions, (2) generation of strategies to address identified decision problem(s), (3) identification of uncertainties and their relationships, and (4) construction of a decision support model. Participation in such a systematic approach can help to promote consensus and to build a record of qualified supporting data for planning and implementation. In December 2008, a Decision Analysis framing study was initiated with a series of meetings designed to obtain preliminary input from key stakeholder groups on the scope of decisions relevant to drainage management that were of interest to them, and on the fundamental objectives each group considered relevant to those decisions. Two key findings of this framing study are: (1) participating stakeholders have many drainage management objectives in common; and (2) understanding the links between drainage management and water management is necessary both for sound science-based decisionmaking and for resolving stakeholder differences about the value of proposed drainage management solutions. Citing

  7. Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, J.; Fackler, P.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Eaton, M.J.; Runge, M.C.; Stith, B.M.; Langtimm, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee. ?? 2011 U.S. Government.

  8. Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Julien; Fackler, Paul L.; Nichols, James D.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Runge, Michael C.; Stith, Bradley M.; Langtimm, Catherine A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee.

  9. A normative inference approach for optimal sample sizes in decisions from experience.

    PubMed

    Ostwald, Dirk; Starke, Ludger; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    "Decisions from experience" (DFE) refers to a body of work that emerged in research on behavioral decision making over the last decade. One of the major experimental paradigms employed to study experience-based choice is the "sampling paradigm," which serves as a model of decision making under limited knowledge about the statistical structure of the world. In this paradigm respondents are presented with two payoff distributions, which, in contrast to standard approaches in behavioral economics, are specified not in terms of explicit outcome-probability information, but by the opportunity to sample outcomes from each distribution without economic consequences. Participants are encouraged to explore the distributions until they feel confident enough to decide from which they would prefer to draw from in a final trial involving real monetary payoffs. One commonly employed measure to characterize the behavior of participants in the sampling paradigm is the sample size, that is, the number of outcome draws which participants choose to obtain from each distribution prior to terminating sampling. A natural question that arises in this context concerns the "optimal" sample size, which could be used as a normative benchmark to evaluate human sampling behavior in DFE. In this theoretical study, we relate the DFE sampling paradigm to the classical statistical decision theoretic literature and, under a probabilistic inference assumption, evaluate optimal sample sizes for DFE. In our treatment we go beyond analytically established results by showing how the classical statistical decision theoretic framework can be used to derive optimal sample sizes under arbitrary, but numerically evaluable, constraints. Finally, we critically evaluate the value of deriving optimal sample sizes under this framework as testable predictions for the experimental study of sampling behavior in DFE. PMID:26441720

  10. A risk-based focused decision-management approach for justifying characterization of Hanford tank waste. June 1996, Revision 1; April 1997, Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Colson, S.D.; Gephart, R.E.; Hunter, V.L.; Janata, J.; Morgan, L.G.

    1997-12-31

    This report describes a disciplined, risk-based decision-making approach for determining characterization needs and resolving safety issues during the storage and remediation of radioactive waste stored in Hanford tanks. The strategy recommended uses interactive problem evaluation and decision analysis methods commonly used in industry to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty (i.e., lack of perfect knowledge). It acknowledges that problem resolution comes through both the application of high-quality science and human decisions based upon preferences and sometimes hard-to-compare choices. It recognizes that to firmly resolve a safety problem, the controlling waste characteristics and chemical phenomena must be measurable or estimated to an acceptable level of confidence tailored to the decision being made.

  11. EPA Growing DASEES (Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society) - To Aid In Making Decisions On Complex Environmental Issues

    EPA Science Inventory

    Having a framework and tools to help sort through complicated environmental issues in an objective way would be useful to communities and risk managers, and all the stakeholders affected by these issues. This is one need that DASEES (Decision Analysis for a Sustainable En...

  12. Slower Perception Followed by Faster Lexical Decision in Longer Words: A Diffusion Model Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Oganian, Yulia; Froehlich, Eva; Schlickeiser, Ulrike; Hofmann, Markus J.; Heekeren, Hauke R.; Jacobs, Arthur M.

    2016-01-01

    Effects of stimulus length on reaction times (RTs) in the lexical decision task are the topic of extensive research. While slower RTs are consistently found for longer pseudo-words, a finding coined the word length effect (WLE), some studies found no effects for words, and yet others reported faster RTs for longer words. Moreover, the WLE depends on the orthographic transparency of a language, with larger effects in more transparent orthographies. Here we investigate processes underlying the WLE in lexical decision in German-English bilinguals using a diffusion model (DM) analysis, which we compared to a linear regression approach. In the DM analysis, RT-accuracy distributions are characterized using parameters that reflect latent sub-processes, in particular evidence accumulation and decision-independent perceptual encoding, instead of typical parameters such as mean RT and accuracy. The regression approach showed a decrease in RTs with length for pseudo-words, but no length effect for words. However, DM analysis revealed that the null effect for words resulted from opposing effects of length on perceptual encoding and rate of evidence accumulation. Perceptual encoding times increased with length for words and pseudo-words, whereas the rate of evidence accumulation increased with length for real words but decreased for pseudo-words. A comparison between DM parameters in German and English suggested that orthographic transparency affects perceptual encoding, whereas effects of length on evidence accumulation are likely to reflect contextual information and the increase in available perceptual evidence with length. These opposing effects may account for the inconsistent findings on WLEs. PMID:26779075

  13. Opportunities and Examples for Integration of Socio-environmental Approaches to Support Climate-informed Decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenney, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    Climate and environmental decisions require science that couples human and natural systems to quantify or articulate the observed physical, natural, and societal changes or likely consequences of different decision options. Despite the need for such policy-relevant research, multidisciplinary collaborations can be wrought with challenges of data integration, model interoperability, and communication across disciplinary divides. In this talk, I will present several examples where I have collaborated with colleagues from the physical, natural, and social sciences to develop novel, actionable science to inform decision-making. Specifically, I will discuss a cost analysis of water and sediment diversions to optimize land building in the Mississippi River delta (winner of American Geophysical Union Water Resources Research Editor's Choice Award 2014) and the development of a National Climate Indicator System that uses knowledge across the physical, natural, and social sciences to establish an end-to-end indicator system of climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The latter project is in the process of moving from research to operations, an additional challenge and opportunity, as we work with the U.S. Global Change Research Program and their affiliated Federal agencies to establish it beyond the research prototype. Using these examples, I will provide some lessons learned that would have general applicability to socio-environmental research collaborations and integration of data, models, and information systems to support climate and environmental decision-making.

  14. 77 FR 29391 - An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-17

    ... COMMISSION An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes... Assessment in Risk- Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes to the Licensing Basis,'' (proposed Revision... Assessment Results for Risk-Informed Activities'' and the references were updated. It is the intent of...

  15. An Integrative Process Approach on Judgment and Decision Making: The Impact of Arousal, Affect, Motivation, and Cognitive Ability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roets, Arne; Van Hiel, Alain

    2011-01-01

    This article aims to integrate the findings from various research traditions on human judgment and decision making, focusing on four process variables: arousal, affect, motivation, and cognitive capacity/ability. We advocate a broad perspective referred to as the integrative process approach (IPA) of decision making, in which these process…

  16. A Framework for Treating Uncertainty to Facilitate Waste Disposal Decision Making - Application of the Approach to GCD Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, T.J.; Cochran, J.R.; Gallegos, D.P.

    1999-03-09

    This paper presents an approach for treating uncertainty in the performance assessment process to efficiently address regulatory performance objectives for radioactive waste disposal and discusses the application of the approach at the Greater Confinement Disposal site. In this approach, the performance assessment methodology uses probabilistic risk assessment concepts to guide effective decisions about site characterization activities and provides a path toward reasonable assurance regarding regulatory compliance decisions. Although the approach is particularly amenable to requirements that are probabilistic in nature, the approach is also applicable to deterministic standards such as the dose-based and concentration-based requirements.

  17. The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

    2016-04-01

    This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In

  18. An application of principal component analysis and logistic regression to facilitate production scheduling decision support system: an automotive industry case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehrjoo, Saeed; Bashiri, Mahdi

    2013-05-01

    Production planning and control (PPC) systems have to deal with rising complexity and dynamics. The complexity of planning tasks is due to some existing multiple variables and dynamic factors derived from uncertainties surrounding the PPC. Although literatures on exact scheduling algorithms, simulation approaches, and heuristic methods are extensive in production planning, they seem to be inefficient because of daily fluctuations in real factories. Decision support systems can provide productive tools for production planners to offer a feasible and prompt decision in effective and robust production planning. In this paper, we propose a robust decision support tool for detailed production planning based on statistical multivariate method including principal component analysis and logistic regression. The proposed approach has been used in a real case in Iranian automotive industry. In the presence of existing multisource uncertainties, the results of applying the proposed method in the selected case show that the accuracy of daily production planning increases in comparison with the existing method.

  19. Opportunities for Sentinel-2 in an Integrated Sensor Approach to Support Decision Making in Precision Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kooistra, L.; Clevers, J.; Beza, E.; van Vliet, P.; van den Borne, J.; van der Velde, W.

    2012-04-01

    With the upcoming availability of the Sentinel-2 sensor, an important new data stream is becoming available which will provide images with high spatial, spectral and temporal resolution relevant for operational support of precision agricultural practices. The objective of the study presented in this paper is to develop innovative approaches for the integration and analysis of information from multiple sensors which allow timely detection and diagnosis of crop status in precision agriculture. Our hypothesis was that sensing based nutrient management of crops can be improved by combining structure and bio-chemistry based vegetation indices and also taking into account the spectral changes over the growing season. Based on controlled fertilization experiments sensor based decision rules were developed which in a next stage were applied to steer near-real variable rate fertilizer application within a parcel. As a case study, a detailed field experiment was conducted for two potato fields in the South of the Netherlands. In the field sub-plots (30*30 m) were prepared with four levels of nitrogen fertilization including two replicates. For all fields, detailed spectral measurements were made over the 2010 and 2011 growing season on a weekly basis using field spectrometers (Fieldspec FR, Cropscan) and commercial near-sensing instruments (Greenseeker, Yara, Cropcircle, Isaria) on the spraying boom of a tractor. In addition, satellite based remote sensing data (WorldView-2, DMC, Rapid-Eye) for a selection of dates were available. The nitrogen status of the crop was measured bi-weekly using the Minolta Spad instrument in the field and soil and crop nutrient status of the plots was also measured monthly by sampling and wet-chemistry analysis. In this paper we present the first results of the field experiment which will focus on three aspects: 1) investigate existing spectral indices for their ability to characterize crop nitrogen status in potato; 2) investigate the added

  20. GAIA - A New Approach To Decision Making on Climate Disruption Issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Nix, M.; Strong, S. B.; Fountain, G. H.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Parker, C. L.; Global Assimilation of InformationAction

    2011-12-01

    GAIA - the Global Assimilation of Information for Action program - provides a broadly extensible framework for enabling the development of a deeper understanding of the issues associated with climate disruption. The key notion of GAIA is that the global climate problem is so complex that a "system engineering" approach is needed in order to make it understandable. The key tenet of system engineering is to focus on requirements and to develop a cost-effective process for satisfying those requirements. To demonstrate this approach we focused first on the impact of climate disruption on public health. GAIA is described in some detail on our website (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu). Climate disruption is not just a scientific problem; one of the key issues that our community has is that of translating scientific results into knowledge that can be used to make informed decisions. In order to support decision makers we have to understand their issues and how to communicate with them. In this talk, we describe how we have built a community of interest that combines subject matter experts from diverse communities (public health, climate change, government, public policy, industry, etc) with policy makers and representatives from industry to develop, on a "level playing field", an understanding of each other's points of view and issues. The first application of this technology was the development of a workshop on Climate, Climate Change and Public Health held April 12-14, 2011. This paper describes our approach to going beyond the workshop environment to continue to engage the decision maker's community in a variety of ways that translate abstract scientific data into actionable information. Key ideas we will discuss include the development of social media, simulations of global/national/local environments affected by climate disruption, and visualizations of the monetary and health impacts of choosing not to address mitigation or adaptation to climate disruption.

  1. Child Protection Decision Making: A Factorial Analysis Using Case Vignettes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stokes, Jacqueline; Schmidt, Glen

    2012-01-01

    This study explored decision making by child protection social workers in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A factorial survey method was used in which case vignettes were constructed by randomly assigning a number of key characteristics associated with decision making in child protection. Child protection social workers (n = 118) assessed…

  2. "Big data" needs an analysis of decision processes.

    PubMed

    Analytis, Pantelis P; Moussaïd, Mehdi; Artinger, Florian; Kämmer, Juliane E; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2014-02-01

    We demonstrate by means of a simulation that the conceptual map presented by Bentley et al. is incomplete without taking into account people's decision processes. Within the same environment, two decision processes can generate strikingly different collective behavior; in two environments that fundamentally differ in transparency, a single process gives rise to virtually identical behavior. PMID:24572218

  3. Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Des H.V.; Converse, Sarah J.; Gibson, Keith; Moehrenschlager, Axel; Link, William A.; Olsen, Glenn H.; Maguire, Kelly

    2011-01-01

    Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane (Grus americana), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of

  4. Clinical Decision Analysis and Markov Modeling for Surgeons: An Introductory Overview.

    PubMed

    Hogendoorn, Wouter; Moll, Frans L; Sumpio, Bauer E; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2016-08-01

    This study addresses the use of decision analysis and Markov models to make contemplated decisions for surgical problems. Decision analysis and decision modeling in surgical research are increasing, but many surgeons are unfamiliar with the techniques and are skeptical of the results. The goal of this review is to familiarize surgeons with techniques and terminology used in decision analytic papers, to provide the reader a practical guide to read these papers, and to ensure that surgeons can critically appraise the quality of published clinical decision models and draw well founded conclusions from such reports.First, a brief explanation of decision analysis and Markov models is presented in simple steps, followed by an overview of the components of a decision and Markov model. Subsequently, commonly used terms and definitions are described and explained, including quality-adjusted life-years, disability-adjusted life-years, discounting, half-cycle correction, cycle length, probabilistic sensitivity analysis, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and the willingness-to-pay threshold.Finally, the advantages and limitations of research with Markov models are described, and new modeling techniques and future perspectives are discussed. It is important that surgeons are able to understand conclusions from decision analytic studies and are familiar with the specific definitions of the terminology used in the field to keep up with surgical research. Decision analysis can guide treatment strategies when complex clinical questions need to be answered and is a necessary and useful addition to the surgical research armamentarium. PMID:26756750

  5. Risk Analysis Based Business Rule Enforcement for Intelligent Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasilecas, Olegas; Smaizys, Aidas; Brazinskas, Ramunas

    Intelligent information systems are acting by structured rules and do not deal with possible impact on the business environment or future consequences. That is the main reason why automated decisions based on such rules cannot take responsibility and requires involvement or approval of dedicated business people. This limits decision automation possibilities in information systems. However, business rules describe business policy and represent business logics. This can be used in intelligent information systems, together with risk assessment model to simulate real business environment and evaluate possible impact of automated decisions, to support intelligent decision automation. The chapter proposes risk and business rule model integration to provide full intelligent decision automation model used for business rule enforcement and implementation into intelligent software systems of information systems.

  6. Decision analysis for prioritizing recommended energy conservation options

    SciTech Connect

    Meadows, K.L. ); Brothers, P.W. )

    1989-01-01

    Knowledge engineering techniques were used to study the decision process for choosing which of a set of recommended energy conservation options would be implemented. Building management decision-makers from both the private and public sectors were interviewed to gain an understanding of the decision-making process. Decision objectives were identified and the process computerized. Results of the study are twofold. The first is a formalization of the decision-making process. The formalization enables both efficient treatment of large numbers of objectives and demonstration of optimality in meeting objectives. Second, the knowledge-based system produced is programmed in a conventional programming environment rather than a rule-based expert system shell, demonstrating the range of applicability of knowledge engineering techniques.

  7. A United Methodist approach to end-of-life decisions: intentional ambiguity or ambiguous intentions.

    PubMed

    Thobaben, James R

    1997-12-01

    The position of the United Methodist Church on end-of-life decisions is best described as intentional ambiguity or ambiguous intentions or both. The paper analyzes the official position of the denomination and then considers the actions of a U.M.C. bishop who served as a foreman for a trial of Dr. Jack Kevorkian. In an effort to find some common ground within an increasingly divided denomination, the work concludes with a consideration of the work of John Wesley and his approach to human death. PMID:11655315

  8. The effects of stress on nuclear power plant operational decision making and training approaches to reduce stress effects

    SciTech Connect

    Mumaw, R.J.

    1994-08-01

    Operational personnel may be exposed to significant levels of stress during unexpected changes in plant state an plant emergencies. The decision making that identifies operational actions, which is strongly determined by procedures, may be affected by stress, and performance may be impaired. ER report analyzes potential effects of stress in nuclear power plant (NPP) settings, especially in the context of severe accident management (SAM). First, potential sources of stress in the NPP setting are identified. This analysis is followed by a review of the ways in which stress is likely to affect performance, with an emphasis on performance of cognitive skills that are linked to operational decision making. Finally, potential training approaches for reducing or eliminating stress effects are identified. Several training approaches have the potential to eliminate or mitigate stress effects on cognitive skill performance. First, the use of simulated events for training can reduce the novelty and uncertainty that can lead to stress and performance impairments. Second, training to make cognitive processing more efficient and less reliant on attention and memory resources can offset the reductions in these resources that occur under stressful conditions. Third, training that targets crew communications skills can reduce the likelihood that communications will fail under stress.

  9. Suitability analysis for siting MSW landfills and its multicriteria spatial decision support system: method, implementation and case study.

    PubMed

    Demesouka, O E; Vavatsikos, A P; Anagnostopoulos, K P

    2013-05-01

    Multicriteria spatial decision support systems (MC-SDSS) have emerged as an integration of geographical information systems (GIS) and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods for incorporating conflicting objectives and decision makers' (DMs') preferences into spatial decision models. This article presents a raster-based MC-SDSS that combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and compromise programming methods, such as TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution) and Ideal Point Methods. To the best of our knowledge it is the first time that a synergy of AHP and compromise programming methods is implemented in raster-driven GIS-based landfill suitability analysis. This procedure is supported by a spatial decision support system (SDSS) that was developed within a widely used commercial GIS software package. A real case study in the Thrace region in northeast Greece serves as a guide on how to conduct a suitability analysis for a MSW landfill site with the proposed MC-SDSS. Moreover, the procedure for identifying MSW disposal sites is accomplished by performing four computational models for synthesizing the DMs per criterion preferential system. Based on the case study results, a comparison analysis is performed according to suitability index estimations. According to them Euclidean distance metric and TOPSIS present strong similarities. When compared with Euclidean distance metric, TOPSIS seems to generate results closer to that derived by Manhattan distance metric. The comparison of Chebychev distance metric with all the other approaches revealed the greatest deviations. PMID:23453354

  10. Abnormal causal attribution leads to advantageous economic decision-making: A neuropsychological approach

    PubMed Central

    Koscik, Timothy R.; Tranel, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    People tend to assume that outcomes are caused by dispositional factors, e.g., a person’s constitution or personality, even when the actual cause is due to situational factors, e.g., luck or coincidence. This is known as the ‘correspondence bias.’ This tendency can lead normal, intelligent persons to make suboptimal decisions. Here, we used a neuropsychological approach to investigate the neural basis of the correspondence bias, by studying economic decision-making in patients with damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). Given the role of the vmPFC in social cognition, we predicted that vmPFC is necessary for the normal correspondence bias. In our experiment, consistent with expectations, healthy (N=46) and brain-damaged (N=30) comparison participants displayed the correspondence bias when investing and invested no differently when given dispositional or situational information. By contrast, vmPFC patients (N=17) displayed a lack of correspondence bias and invested more when given dispositional than situational information. The results support the conclusion that vmPFC is critical for normal social inference and the correspondence bias, and our findings help clarify the important (and potentially disadvantageous) role of social inference in economic decision-making. PMID:23574584

  11. Costs of Lygus herbivory on cotton associated with farmer decision-making: an ecoinformatics approach.

    PubMed

    Rosenheim, Jay A

    2013-06-01

    Because the farmer is typically excluded from the experimental research setting, experimental research may face challenges in evaluating pest management tactics whose costs and benefits hinge on farmer decision-making. In these cases an ecoinformatics approach, in which observational data collected from the commercial farming setting are "mined" to quantify both biological variables and farmer behavior, can complement experimentation as a useful research tool. Here I analyze such an observational data set to characterize associations between early- (June) and mid-season (July) Lygus hesperus Knight populations and farmer decisions to apply plant growth regulators and defoliants. Previous experimental work suggested the hypothesis that Lygus herbivory, by inducing abscission of young flower buds, might generate increased use of plant growth regulators and defoliants. Cotton's ability to compensate for loss of flower buds may, however, increase as plants grow. On upland cotton, June Lygus populations were associated with increased use of plant growth regulators, as expected, but this relationship was not observed for July Lygus populations. June Lygus populations were not associated with the use of defoliants, whereas, surprisingly, July Lygus populations were associated with decreases in defoliant use. In contrast to these positive and negative associations observed on upland cotton, on Pima cotton Lygus populations exhibited no associations with use of either plant growth regulators or defoliants. These results suggest that cotton responses to Lygus herbivory, as demonstrated in previously published experimental studies, can translate into economically meaningful changes in farmer decisions to apply agricultural chemicals. PMID:23865193

  12. Flow Analysis: A Novel Approach For Classification.

    PubMed

    Vakh, Christina; Falkova, Marina; Timofeeva, Irina; Moskvin, Alexey; Moskvin, Leonid; Bulatov, Andrey

    2016-09-01

    We suggest a novel approach for classification of flow analysis methods according to the conditions under which the mass transfer processes and chemical reactions take place in the flow mode: dispersion-convection flow methods and forced-convection flow methods. The first group includes continuous flow analysis, flow injection analysis, all injection analysis, sequential injection analysis, sequential injection chromatography, cross injection analysis, multi-commutated flow analysis, multi-syringe flow injection analysis, multi-pumping flow systems, loop flow analysis, and simultaneous injection effective mixing flow analysis. The second group includes segmented flow analysis, zone fluidics, flow batch analysis, sequential injection analysis with a mixing chamber, stepwise injection analysis, and multi-commutated stepwise injection analysis. The offered classification allows systematizing a large number of flow analysis methods. Recent developments and applications of dispersion-convection flow methods and forced-convection flow methods are presented. PMID:26364745

  13. Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework

    SciTech Connect

    Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

    1995-12-08

    Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software.

  14. IDHEAS – A NEW APPROACH FOR HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect

    G. W. Parry; J.A Forester; V.N. Dang; S. M. L. Hendrickson; M. Presley; E. Lois; J. Xing

    2013-09-01

    This paper describes a method, IDHEAS (Integrated Decision-Tree Human Event Analysis System) that has been developed jointly by the US NRC and EPRI as an improved approach to Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) that is based on an understanding of the cognitive mechanisms and performance influencing factors (PIFs) that affect operator responses. The paper describes the various elements of the method, namely the performance of a detailed cognitive task analysis that is documented in a crew response tree (CRT), and the development of the associated time-line to identify the critical tasks, i.e. those whose failure results in a human failure event (HFE), and an approach to quantification that is based on explanations of why the HFE might occur.

  15. An Alternative Theoretical Approach to Escape Decision-Making: The Role of Visual Cues

    PubMed Central

    Javůrková, Veronika; Šizling, Arnošt Leoš; Kreisinger, Jakub; Albrecht, Tomáš

    2012-01-01

    Escape enables prey to avoid an approaching predator. The escape decision-making process has traditionally been interpreted using theoretical models that consider ultimate explanations based on the cost/benefit paradigm. Ultimate approaches, however, suffer from inseparable extra-assumptions due to an inability to accurately parameterize the model's variables and their interactive relationships. In this study, we propose a mathematical model that uses intensity of predator-mediated visual stimuli as a basic cue for the escape response. We consider looming stimuli (i.e. expanding retinal image of the moving predator) as a cue to flight initiation distance (FID; distance at which escape begins) of incubating Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We then examine the relationship between FID, vegetation cover and directness of predator trajectory, and fit the resultant model to experimental data. As predicted by the model, vegetation concealment and directness of predator trajectory interact, with FID decreasing with increased concealment during a direct approach toward prey, but not during a tangential approach. Thus, we show that a simple proximate expectation, which involves only visual processing of a moving predator, may explain interactive effects of environmental and predator-induced variables on an escape response. We assume that our proximate approach, which offers a plausible and parsimonious explanation for variation in FID, may serve as an evolutionary background for traditional, ultimate explanations and should be incorporated into interpretation of escape behavior. PMID:22427851

  16. Trends in Governance and Decision-Making: A Democratic Analysis with Attention to Application in Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, D. Brent, Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Recent decades have witnessed the rise in popularity of a handful of related yet distinct approaches to governance and decision-making in many different contexts that either relocate the level and location at which decisions are made or how they are made, or both. True for developing as well as developed countries, and for both the public and…

  17. Impact of contour on aesthetic judgments and approach-avoidance decisions in architecture.

    PubMed

    Vartanian, Oshin; Navarrete, Gorka; Chatterjee, Anjan; Fich, Lars Brorson; Leder, Helmut; Modroño, Cristián; Nadal, Marcos; Rostrup, Nicolai; Skov, Martin

    2013-06-18

    On average, we urban dwellers spend about 90% of our time indoors, and share the intuition that the physical features of the places we live and work in influence how we feel and act. However, there is surprisingly little research on how architecture impacts behavior, much less on how it influences brain function. To begin closing this gap, we conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging study to examine how systematic variation in contour impacts aesthetic judgments and approach-avoidance decisions, outcome measures of interest to both architects and users of spaces alike. As predicted, participants were more likely to judge spaces as beautiful if they were curvilinear than rectilinear. Neuroanatomically, when contemplating beauty, curvilinear contour activated the anterior cingulate cortex exclusively, a region strongly responsive to the reward properties and emotional salience of objects. Complementing this finding, pleasantness--the valence dimension of the affect circumplex--accounted for nearly 60% of the variance in beauty ratings. Furthermore, activation in a distributed brain network known to underlie the aesthetic evaluation of different types of visual stimuli covaried with beauty ratings. In contrast, contour did not affect approach-avoidance decisions, although curvilinear spaces activated the visual cortex. The results suggest that the well-established effect of contour on aesthetic preference can be extended to architecture. Furthermore, the combination of our behavioral and neural evidence underscores the role of emotion in our preference for curvilinear objects in this domain. PMID:23754408

  18. Impact of contour on aesthetic judgments and approach-avoidance decisions in architecture

    PubMed Central

    Vartanian, Oshin; Navarrete, Gorka; Chatterjee, Anjan; Fich, Lars Brorson; Leder, Helmut; Modroño, Cristián; Nadal, Marcos; Rostrup, Nicolai; Skov, Martin

    2013-01-01

    On average, we urban dwellers spend about 90% of our time indoors, and share the intuition that the physical features of the places we live and work in influence how we feel and act. However, there is surprisingly little research on how architecture impacts behavior, much less on how it influences brain function. To begin closing this gap, we conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging study to examine how systematic variation in contour impacts aesthetic judgments and approach-avoidance decisions, outcome measures of interest to both architects and users of spaces alike. As predicted, participants were more likely to judge spaces as beautiful if they were curvilinear than rectilinear. Neuroanatomically, when contemplating beauty, curvilinear contour activated the anterior cingulate cortex exclusively, a region strongly responsive to the reward properties and emotional salience of objects. Complementing this finding, pleasantness—the valence dimension of the affect circumplex—accounted for nearly 60% of the variance in beauty ratings. Furthermore, activation in a distributed brain network known to underlie the aesthetic evaluation of different types of visual stimuli covaried with beauty ratings. In contrast, contour did not affect approach-avoidance decisions, although curvilinear spaces activated the visual cortex. The results suggest that the well-established effect of contour on aesthetic preference can be extended to architecture. Furthermore, the combination of our behavioral and neural evidence underscores the role of emotion in our preference for curvilinear objects in this domain. PMID:23754408

  19. Ecosystem Decision Support: A Living Database of Existing Tools, Approaches and Techniques for Supporting Decisions Related to Ecosystem Services

    EPA Science Inventory

    Planners and decision makers are challenged to consider not only direct market costs, but also ecological externalities. There is an increasing emphasis on ecosystem services in the context of human well-being, and therefore the valuation and accounting of ecosystem services is b...

  20. A market-based approach for analysis of utility decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Bodmer, E.C.; Waldman, R.H.

    1995-04-01

    In the future, bulk electric power will be traded on commodity exchanges, and revenues earned from electricity sales will be derived from market-clearing prices. New analytical procedures must be developed from a market perspective that give appropriate weight to risk.

  1. Modular Approach to Instrumental Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deming, Richard L.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    To remedy certain deficiencies, an instrument analysis course was reorganized into six one-unit modules: optical spectroscopy, magnetic resonance, separations, electrochemistry, radiochemistry, and computers and interfacing. Selected aspects of the course are discussed. (SK)

  2. Assessing the Value of Frost Forecasts to Orchardists: A Dynamic Decision-Making Approach.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katz, Richard W.; Murphy, Allan H.; Winkler, Robert L.

    1982-04-01

    The methodology of decision analysis is used to investigate the economic value of frost (i.e., minimum temperature) forecasts to orchardists. First, the fruit-frost situation and previous studies of the value of minimum temperature forecasts in this context are described. Then, after a brief overview of decision analysis, a decision-making model for the fruit-frost problem is presented. The model involves identifying the relevant actions and events (or outcomes), specifying the effect of taking protective action, and describing the relationships among temperature, bud loss, and yield loss. A bivariate normal distribution is used to model the relationship between forecast and observed temperatures, thereby characterizing the quality of different types of information. Since the orchardist wants to minimize expenses (or maximize payoffs) over the entire frost-protection season and since current actions and outcomes at any point in the season are related to both previous and future actions and outcomes, the decision-making problem is inherently dynamic in nature. As a result, a class of dynamic models known as Markov decision processes is considered. A computational technique called dynamic programming is used in conjunction with these models to determine the optimal actions and to estimate the value of meteorological information.Some results concerning the value of frost forecasts to orchardists in the Yakima Valley of central Washington are presented for the cases of red delicious apples, bartlett pears, and elberta peaches. Estimates of the parameter values in the Markov decision process are obtained from relevant physical and economic data. Twenty years of National Weather Service forecast and observed temperatures for the Yakima key station are used to estimate the quality of different types of information, including perfect forecasts, current forecasts, and climatological information. The orchardist's optimal actions over the frost-protection season and the

  3. Comparison of residents’ approaches to clinical decisions before and after the implementation of Evidence Based Medicine course

    PubMed Central

    KARIMIAN, ZAHRA; KOJURI, JAVAD; SAGHEB, MOHAMMAD MAHDI; MAHBOUDI, ALI; SABER, MAHBOOBEH; AMINI, MITRA; DEHGHANI, MOHAMMAD REZA

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: It has been found that the decision-making process in medicine is affected, to a large extent, by one’s experience, individual mentality, previous models, and common habitual approaches, in addition to scientific principles. Evidence-based medicine is an approach attempting to reinforce scientific, systematic and critical thinking in physicians and provide the ground for optimal decision making. In this connection, the purpose of the present study is to find out to what extent the education of evidence based medicine affects clinical decision making. Methods: The present quasi-experimental study was carried out on 110 clinical residents, who started their education in September, 2012 and finally 62 residents filled out the questionnaires. The instrument used was a researcher-made questionnaire containing items on four decision-making approaches. The questionnaire was used both as a pre-test and a post-test to assess the residents’ viewpoints on decision making approaches. The validity of the questionnaire was determined using medical education and clinical professionals’ viewpoints, and the reliability was calculated through Chronbach alpha; it was found to be 0.93. The results were analyzed by paired t-test using SPSS, version 14. Results: The results demonstrated that evidence-based medicine workshop significantly affected the residents’ decision-making approaches (p<0.001). The pre-test showed that principles-based, reference-based and routine model-based approaches were more preferred before the program (p<0.001). However, after the implementation of the program, the dominant approaches used by the residents in their decision making were evidence-based ones.  Conclusion: To develop the evidence-based approach, it is necessary for educational programs to continue steadily and goal-orientedly. In addition, the equipment infrastructure such as the Internet, access to data bases, scientific data, and clinical guides should develop more in the

  4. Different approaches of spectral analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lacoume, J. L.

    1977-01-01

    Several approaches to the problem of the calculation of spectral power density of a random function from an estimate of the autocorrelation function were studied. A comparative study was presented of these different methods. The principles on which they are based and the hypothesis implied were pointed out. Some indications on the optimization of the length of the estimated correlation function was given. An example of application of the different methods discussed in this paper was included.

  5. Assessing Adolescent Decision-Making Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischhoff, Baruch

    2008-01-01

    Behavioral decision research offers a general approach to studying cognitive aspects of decision making, as well as a platform for studying their interplay with social and affective processes. Applied to any decision, behavioral decision research involves three interrelated tasks: (a) "normative" analysis, identifying the expected impacts of…

  6. Multicriteria decision analysis and core values for enhancing vaccine-related decision-making.

    PubMed

    Barocchi, Michèle A; Black, Steve; Rappuoli, Rino

    2016-06-29

    Vaccines have the potential to transform the health of all individuals and to reduce the health inequality between rich and poor countries. However, to achieve these goals, it is no longer sufficient to prioritize vaccine development using cost-effectiveness as the sole indicator. During a symposium entitled "Mission Grand Convergence-The Role of Vaccines," held in Siena, Italy, in July 2015, key stakeholders agreed that the prioritization of vaccine development and deployment must use multicriteria decision-making based on the following core concepts: (i) mortality and severity of the disease, (ii) vaccine safety considerations, and (iii) economic evaluation that captures the full benefits of vaccination. PMID:27358496

  7. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlson, Murray Dean

    1998-12-01

    In this thesis we provide insights into the behavior of financial managers of utility companies by studying their decisions to redeem callable preferred shares. In particular, we investigate whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision, with managers who maximize shareholder value, does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions than do other models of the decision. In order to perform these tests, we extend an empirical technique introduced by Rust (1987) to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. The model we develop to value the option embedded in a callable preferred share differs from standard models in two ways. First, as suggested in Kraus (1983), we explicitly account for transaction costs associated with a redemption. Second, we account for state variables that are observed by the decision makers but not by the preferred shareholders. We interpret these unobservable state variables as the benefits and costs associated with a change in capital structure that can accompany a call decision. When we add this variable, our empirical model changes from one which predicts exactly when a share should be called to one which predicts the probability of a call as the function of the observable state. These two modifications of the standard model result in predictions of calls, and therefore of callable preferred share prices, that are consistent with several previously unexplained features of the data; we show that the predictive power of the model is improved in a statistical sense by adding these features to the model. The pricing and call probability functions from our model do a good job of describing call decisions and preferred share prices for several utilities. Using data from shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PGE) we obtain reasonable estimates for the transaction costs associated with a call. Using a formal empirical test, we are able to

  8. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  9. NASA Water-Cycle Solutions Networks and Community of Practice Approaches to enhance Decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzi, W.; Ward, J.; Cox, E. L.; Lawford, R. G.; Matthews, D.; Houser, P.; Doherty, M.

    2009-12-01

    The Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has created the Asian Water Cycle Initiative regional network for South Asia and NASA has launched two networks to enhance the rapid transitioning of scientific achievements and NASA technology into operational use. All three networks meet a new type of scientific challenge by providing strong linkage among the scientific communities, the space agencies, and decision makers. We focus here on the two NASA-sponsored networks that carry out complementary approaches: WaterNet focused on large-scale national/international collaborations; North Olympic Peninsula Solution Network developed a local proof of concept project first, then began integration and collaboration at progressively larger scales, culminating with a national-level discourse via the National Association of Resource, Conservation and Development councils (NARC&DC). The ultimate goals of both groups were to bring NASA Science and Technology products to organizations/groups to improve decision making and to create collaborations and networks that would extend beyond the parent groups and expand and continue to be sustainable, after the original projects were completed. This paper provides a summary of lessons learned. The primary objective of the NOPSN is to bring NASA science and technology tools to watershed managers to improve the scientific basis of decision making in NASA national application areas of water management, agricultural efficiency, and ecological forecasting. To achieve this objective, the NOPSN team first developed and implemented a local proof-of-concept project for the Dungeness River, Washington, to improve water forecasting. The team then developed local and regional collaborations with water resource managers, stakeholder groups, and local, state, and federal agencies to identify environmental issues, challenges, and needs that could be addressed with NASA technology. Finally,through its partnership with NARC&D, it provided the NOPSN

  10. Hurricane risk assessment to rollback or ride out a cost versus loss decision making approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wohlman, Richard A.

    1992-01-01

    The potential exists that a hurricane striking the Kennedy Space Center while a Space Shuttle is on the pad. Winds in excess of 74.5 knots could cause the failure of the holddown bolts bringing about the catastrophic loss of the entire vehicle. Current plans call for the rollback of the shuttle when winds of that magnitude are forecast to strike the center. As this is costly, a new objective method for making rollback/rideout decisions based upon Bayesian Analysis and economic cost versus loss is presented.

  11. Decision-making during gambling: an integration of cognitive and psychobiological approaches

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Luke

    2010-01-01

    Gambling is a widespread form of entertainment that may afford unique insights into the interaction between cognition and emotion in human decision-making. It is also a behaviour that can become harmful, and potentially addictive, in a minority of individuals. This article considers the status of two dominant approaches to gambling behaviour. The cognitive approach has identified a number of erroneous beliefs held by gamblers, which cause them to over-estimate their chances of winning. The psychobiological approach has examined case-control differences between groups of pathological gamblers and healthy controls, and has identified dysregulation of brain areas linked to reward and emotion, including the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and striatum, as well as alterations in dopamine neurotransmission. In integrating these two approaches, recent data are discussed that reveal anomalous recruitment of the brain reward system (including the vmPFC and ventral striatum) during two common cognitive distortions in gambling games: the near-miss effect and the effect of personal control. In games of chance, near-misses and the presence of control have no objective influence on the likelihood of winning. These manipulations appear to harness a reward system that evolved to learn skill-oriented behaviours, and by modulating activity in this system, these cognitive distortions may promote continued, and potentially excessive, gambling. PMID:20026469

  12. REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR DECISION ANALYSIS IN PUBLIC RESOURCE ADMINISTRATION: A CASE STUDY OF 25 YEARS OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE IN A SOUTHWESTERN WATERSHED

    EPA Science Inventory

    Alternative futures analysis is a scenario-based approach to regional land planning that attempts to synthesize existing scientific information in a format useful to community decision-makers. Typically, this approach attempts to investigate the impacts of several alternative set...

  13. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  14. A Predictive Analysis Approach to Adaptive Testing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirisci, Levent; Hsu, Tse-Chi

    The predictive analysis approach to adaptive testing originated in the idea of statistical predictive analysis suggested by J. Aitchison and I.R. Dunsmore (1975). The adaptive testing model proposed is based on parameter-free predictive distribution. Aitchison and Dunsmore define statistical prediction analysis as the use of data obtained from an…

  15. Development of a Decision Support System for Analysis and Solutions of Prolonged Standing in the Workplace

    PubMed Central

    Halim, Isa; Arep, Hambali; Kamat, Seri Rahayu; Abdullah, Rohana; Omar, Abdul Rahman; Ismail, Ahmad Rasdan

    2014-01-01

    Background Prolonged standing has been hypothesized as a vital contributor to discomfort and muscle fatigue in the workplace. The objective of this study was to develop a decision support system that could provide systematic analysis and solutions to minimize the discomfort and muscle fatigue associated with prolonged standing. Methods The integration of object-oriented programming and a Model Oriented Simultaneous Engineering System were used to design the architecture of the decision support system. Results Validation of the decision support system was carried out in two manufacturing companies. The validation process showed that the decision support system produced reliable results. Conclusion The decision support system is a reliable advisory tool for providing analysis and solutions to problems related to the discomfort and muscle fatigue associated with prolonged standing. Further testing of the decision support system is suggested before it is used commercially. PMID:25180141

  16. A divide and conquer approach to cope with uncertainty, human health risk, and decision making in contaminant hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, Felipe P. J.; Bolster, Diogo; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2011-05-01

    Assessing health risk in hydrological systems is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in the fields of hydrology and public health and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties and variabilities present in hydrological, physiological, and human behavioral parameters. Despite significant theoretical advancements in stochastic hydrology, there is still a dire need to further propagate these concepts to practical problems and to society in general. Following a recent line of work, we use fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis and to support related decision and management problems. Fault trees allow us to decompose the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural divide and conquer approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance, and stage of analysis. Three differences are highlighted in this paper when compared to previous works: (1) The fault tree proposed here accounts for the uncertainty in both hydrological and health components, (2) system failure within the fault tree is defined in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies that used fault trees used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows us to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

  17. Application of Effective Discharge Analysis to Environmental Flow Decision-Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKay, S. Kyle; Freeman, Mary C.; Covich, Alan P.

    2016-06-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  18. Application of Effective Discharge Analysis to Environmental Flow Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    McKay, S Kyle; Freeman, Mary C; Covich, Alan P

    2016-06-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes. PMID:26961419

  19. Application of effective discharge analysis to environmental flow decision-making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKay, S. Kyle; Freeman, Mary C.; Covich, A.P.

    2016-01-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  20. The Counseling, Self-Care, Adherence Approach to Person-Centered Care and Shared Decision Making: Moral Psychology, Executive Autonomy, and Ethics in Multi-Dimensional Care Decisions.

    PubMed

    Herlitz, Anders; Munthe, Christian; Törner, Marianne; Forsander, Gun

    2016-08-01

    This article argues that standard models of person-centred care (PCC) and shared decision making (SDM) rely on simplistic, often unrealistic assumptions of patient capacities that entail that PCC/SDM might have detrimental effects in many applications. We suggest a complementary PCC/SDM approach to ensure that patients are able to execute rational decisions taken jointly with care professionals when performing self-care. Illustrated by concrete examples from a study of adolescent diabetes care, we suggest a combination of moral and psychological considerations to support the claim that standard PCC/SDM threatens to systematically undermine its own goals. This threat is due to a tension between the ethical requirements of SDM in ideal circumstances and more long-term needs actualized by the context of self-care handled by patients with limited capacities for taking responsibility and adhere to their own rational decisions. To improve this situation, we suggest a counseling, self-care, adherence approach to PCC/SDM, where more attention is given to how treatment goals are internalized by patients, how patients perceive choice situations, and what emotional feedback patients are given. This focus may involve less of a concentration on autonomous and rational clinical decision making otherwise stressed in standard PCC/SDM advocacy. PMID:26756477

  1. Safer approaches and landings: A multivariate analysis of critical factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinrich, Durwood J.

    The approach-and-landing phases of flight represent 27% of mission time while resulting in 61 of the accidents and 39% of the fatalities. The landing phase itself represents only 1% of flight time but claims 45% of the accidents. Inadequate crew situation awareness (SA), crew resource management (CRM), and crew decision-making (DM) have been implicated in 51%, 63%, and 73% respectively of these accidents. The human factors constructs of SA, CRM, and DM were explored; a comprehensive definition of SA was proposed; and a "proactive defense" safety strategy was recommended. Data from a 1997 analysis of worldwide fatal accidents by the Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) Approach-and-Landing Accident Reduction (ALAR) Task Force was used to isolate crew- and weather-related causal factors that lead to approach-and-landing accidents (ALAs). Logistic regression and decision tree analysis were used on samplings of NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident records ("near misses") and the National Transportation Safety Board's (NTSB) accident reports to examine hypotheses regarding factors and factor combinations that can dramatically increase the opportunity for accidents. An effective scale of risk factors was introduced for use by crews to proactively counter safety-related error-chain situations.

  2. Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Wagener, T.; Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Springer, E.

    2007-12-01

    Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.

  3. Decisions, Science, and Values: Crafting Regulatory Alternatives Analysis.

    PubMed

    Malloy, Timothy; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor; Sinsheimer, Peter

    2015-12-01

    Emerging "prevention-based" approaches to chemical regulation seek to minimize the use of toxic chemicals by mandating or directly incentivizing the adoption of viable safer alternative chemicals or processes. California and Maine are beginning to implement such programs, requiring manufacturers of consumer products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify and evaluate potential safer alternatives. In the European Union, the REACH program imposes similar obligations on manufacturers of certain substances of very high concern. Effective prevention-based regulation requires regulatory alternatives analysis (RAA), a methodology for comparing and evaluating the regulated chemical or process and its alternatives across a range of relevant criteria. RAA has both public and private dimensions. To a significant degree, alternatives analysis is an aspect of product design; that is, the process by which private industry designs the goods it sells. Accordingly, an RAA method should reflect the attributes of well-crafted product design tools used by businesses. But RAA adds health and environmental objectives to the mix of concerns taken into account by the product designer. Moreover, as part of a prevention-based regulatory regime, it implicates important public values such as legitimacy, equity, public engagement, and accountability. Thus, an RAA should reflect both private standards and public values, and be evaluated against them. This article adopts that perspective, identifying an integrated set of design principles for RAA, and illustrating the application of those principles. PMID:26299695

  4. Radiological emergency response for community agencies with cognitive task analysis, risk analysis, and decision support framework.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Travis S; Muething, Joseph Z; Lima, Gustavo Amoras Souza; Torres, Breno Raemy Rangel; del Rosario, Trystyn Keia; Gomes, José Orlando; Lambert, James H

    2012-01-01

    Radiological nuclear emergency responders must be able to coordinate evacuation and relief efforts following the release of radioactive material into populated areas. In order to respond quickly and effectively to a nuclear emergency, high-level coordination is needed between a number of large, independent organizations, including police, military, hazmat, and transportation authorities. Given the complexity, scale, time-pressure, and potential negative consequences inherent in radiological emergency responses, tracking and communicating information that will assist decision makers during a crisis is crucial. The emergency response team at the Angra dos Reis nuclear power facility, located outside of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, presently conducts emergency response simulations once every two years to prepare organizational leaders for real-life emergency situations. However, current exercises are conducted without the aid of electronic or software tools, resulting in possible cognitive overload and delays in decision-making. This paper describes the development of a decision support system employing systems methodologies, including cognitive task analysis and human-machine interface design. The decision support system can aid the coordination team by automating cognitive functions and improving information sharing. A prototype of the design will be evaluated by plant officials in Brazil and incorporated to a future trial run of a response simulation. PMID:22317163

  5. A haptic-inspired audio approach for structural health monitoring decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Zhu; Todd, Michael; Mascareñas, David

    2015-03-01

    Haptics is the field at the interface of human touch (tactile sensation) and classification, whereby tactile feedback is used to train and inform a decision-making process. In structural health monitoring (SHM) applications, haptic devices have been introduced and applied in a simplified laboratory scale scenario, in which nonlinearity, representing the presence of damage, was encoded into a vibratory manual interface. In this paper, the "spirit" of haptics is adopted, but here ultrasonic guided wave scattering information is transformed into audio (rather than tactile) range signals. After sufficient training, the structural damage condition, including occurrence and location, can be identified through the encoded audio waveforms. Different algorithms are employed in this paper to generate the transformed audio signals and the performance of each encoding algorithms is compared, and also compared with standard machine learning classifiers. In the long run, the haptic decision-making is aiming to detect and classify structural damages in a more rigorous environment, and approaching a baseline-free fashion with embedded temperature compensation.

  6. Development of Decision Model for Selection of Appropriate Power Generation System Using Distance Based Approach Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widiyanto, Anugerah; Kato, Seizo; Maruyama, Naoki

    For solving decision problems in electric generation planning, a matrix operation based deterministic quantitative model called the Distance Based Approach (DBA) has been proposed for comparing the technical-economical and environmental features of various electric power plants. The customized computer code is developed to evaluate the overall function of alternative energy systems from the performance pattern corresponding to the selected energy attributes. For the purpose of exploring the applicability and the effectiveness of the proposed model, the model is applied to decision problems concerning the selection of energy sources for power generation in Japan. The set of nine energy alternatives includes conventional and new energy technologies of oil fired-, natural gas fired-, coal fired-, nuclear power, hydropower, geothermal, solar photovoltaic, wind power and solar thermal plants. Also, a set of criteria for optimized selection includes five areas of concern; energy economy, energy security, environmental protection, socio-economic development and technological aspects for electric power generation. The result will be a ranking of alternative sources of energy based on the Euclidean composite distance of each alternative to the designated optimal source of energy.

  7. A multicriteria decision making approach based on fuzzy theory and credibility mechanism for logistics center location selection.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bowen; Xiong, Haitao; Jiang, Chengrui

    2014-01-01

    As a hot topic in supply chain management, fuzzy method has been widely used in logistics center location selection to improve the reliability and suitability of the logistics center location selection with respect to the impacts of both qualitative and quantitative factors. However, it does not consider the consistency and the historical assessments accuracy of experts in predecisions. So this paper proposes a multicriteria decision making model based on credibility of decision makers by introducing priority of consistency and historical assessments accuracy mechanism into fuzzy multicriteria decision making approach. In this way, only decision makers who pass the credibility check are qualified to perform the further assessment. Finally, a practical example is analyzed to illustrate how to use the model. The result shows that the fuzzy multicriteria decision making model based on credibility mechanism can improve the reliability and suitability of site selection for the logistics center. PMID:25215319

  8. A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach Based on Fuzzy Theory and Credibility Mechanism for Logistics Center Location Selection

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Bowen; Jiang, Chengrui

    2014-01-01

    As a hot topic in supply chain management, fuzzy method has been widely used in logistics center location selection to improve the reliability and suitability of the logistics center location selection with respect to the impacts of both qualitative and quantitative factors. However, it does not consider the consistency and the historical assessments accuracy of experts in predecisions. So this paper proposes a multicriteria decision making model based on credibility of decision makers by introducing priority of consistency and historical assessments accuracy mechanism into fuzzy multicriteria decision making approach. In this way, only decision makers who pass the credibility check are qualified to perform the further assessment. Finally, a practical example is analyzed to illustrate how to use the model. The result shows that the fuzzy multicriteria decision making model based on credibility mechanism can improve the reliability and suitability of site selection for the logistics center. PMID:25215319

  9. Conceptualizing Surrogate Decision-Making at End of Life in the Intensive Care Unit using Cognitive Task Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Dionne-Odom, J. Nicholas; Willis, Danny G.; Bakitas, Marie; Crandall, Beth; Grace, Pamela J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Surrogate decision-makers (SDMs) face difficult decisions at end of life (EOL) for decisionally incapacitated intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Purpose Identify and describe the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision-making for adults at EOL in the ICU. Method Qualitative case study design using a cognitive task analysis (CTA) interviewing approach. Participants were recruited from October 2012 to June 2013 from an academic tertiary medical center’s ICU located in the rural Northeastern United States. Nineteen SDMs for patients who had died in the ICU completed in-depth semi-structured CTA interviews. Discussion The conceptual framework formulated from data analysis reveals that three underlying, iterative, psychological dimensions: gist impressions, distressing emotions, and moral intuitions impact a SDM’s judgment about the acceptability of either the patient’s medical treatments or his or her condition. Conclusion The framework offers initial insights about the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision-making and may facilitate enhanced decision support for SDMs. PMID:25982772

  10. Assessing regional wind energy resources with biological indicators: A decision-analytic approach

    SciTech Connect

    Katzman, M.T. )

    1989-01-01

    The nation's substantial wind-energy resources are unevenly distributed, with highly profitable sites being relatively rare. The absence of long-term wind speed makes siting of wind-energy conversion systems (WECS) extremely risky. Before investing in precise anemometry, wind prospectors may arrive at a first approximation with biological indicators, which are fairly inexpensive. This article describes an effort at calibrating three characteristics of mesquite trees at two sites in Texas, with wind speeds above and below the apparent economic threshold. These indicators differ in their cost of data acquisition. A discriminant analysis indicates the accuracy of these indicators in classifying samples. The value, risks, and cost effectiveness of biological information in assessing regional wind resources is illustrated through decision analysis.

  11. Learning active fusion of multiple experts' decisions: an attention-based approach.

    PubMed

    Mirian, Maryam S; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Araabi, Babak N; Siegwart, Roland R

    2011-02-01

    In this letter, we propose a learning system, active decision fusion learning (ADFL), for active fusion of decisions. Each decision maker, referred to as a local decision maker, provides its suggestion in the form of a probability distribution over all possible decisions. The goal of the system is to learn the active sequential selection of the local decision makers in order to consult with and thus learn the final decision based on the consultations. These two learning tasks are formulated as learning a single sequential decision-making problem in the form of a Markov decision process (MDP), and a continuous reinforcement learning method is employed to solve it. The states of this MDP are decisions of the attended local decision makers, and the actions are either attending to a local decision maker or declaring final decisions. The learning system is punished for each consultation and wrong final decision and rewarded for correct final decisions. This results in minimizing the consultation and decision-making costs through learning a sequential consultation policy where the most informative local decision makers are consulted and the least informative, misleading, and redundant ones are left unattended. An important property of this policy is that it acts locally. This means that the system handles any nonuniformity in the local decision maker's expertise over the state space. This property has been exploited in the design of local experts. ADFL is tested on a set of classification tasks, where it outperforms two well-known classification methods, Adaboost and bagging, as well as three benchmark fusion algorithms: OWA, Borda count, and majority voting. In addition, the effect of local experts design strategy on the performance of ADFL is studied, and some guidelines for the design of local experts are provided. Moreover, evaluating ADFL in some special cases proves that it is able to derive the maximum benefit from the informative local decision makers and to

  12. The role of emotion in decision-making: a cognitive neuroeconomic approach towards understanding sexual risk behavior.

    PubMed

    Gutnik, Lily A; Hakimzada, A Forogh; Yoskowitz, Nicole A; Patel, Vimla L

    2006-12-01

    Models of decision-making usually focus on cognitive, situational, and socio-cultural variables in accounting for human performance. However, the emotional component is rarely addressed within these models. This paper reviews evidence for the emotional aspect of decision-making and its role within a new framework of investigation, called neuroeconomics. The new approach aims to build a comprehensive theory of decision-making, through the unification of theories and methods from economics, psychology, and neuroscience. In this paper, we review these integrative research methods and their applications to issues of public health, with illustrative examples from our research on young adults' safe sex practices. This approach promises to be valuable as a comprehensively descriptive and possibly, better predictive model for construction and customization of decision support tools for health professionals and consumers. PMID:16759915

  13. SCOPE safety-controls optimization by performance evaluation: A systematic approach for safety-related decisions at the Hanford Tank Remediation System. Phase 1, final report

    SciTech Connect

    Bergeron, K.D.; Williams, D.C.; Slezak, S.E.; Young, M.L.

    1996-12-01

    The Department of Energy`s Hanford Tank Waste Remediation system poses a significant challenge for hazard management because of the uncertainty that surrounds many of the variables that must be considered in decisions on safety and control strategies. As a result, site managers must often operate under excessively conservative and expensive assumptions. This report describes a systematic approach to quantifying the uncertainties surrounding the critical parameters in control decisions (e.g., condition of the tanks, kinds of wastes, types of possible accidents) through the use of expert elicitation methods. The results of the elicitations would then be used to build a decision support system and accident analysis model that would allow managers to see how different control strategies would affect the cost and safety of a facility configuration.

  14. A service oriented approach for guidelines-based clinical decision support using BPMN.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez-Loya, Salvador; Aziz, Ayesha; Chatwin, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Evidence-based medical practice requires that clinical guidelines need to be documented in such a way that they represent a clinical workflow in its most accessible form. In order to optimize clinical processes to improve clinical outcomes, we propose a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) based approach for implementing clinical guidelines that can be accessed from an Electronic Health Record (EHR) application with a Web Services enabled communication mechanism with the Enterprise Service Bus. We have used Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) for modelling and presenting the clinical pathway in the form of a workflow. The aim of this study is to produce spontaneous alerts in the healthcare workflow in the diagnosis of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). The use of BPMN as a tool to automate clinical guidelines has not been previously employed for providing Clinical Decision Support (CDS). PMID:25160142

  15. Releases of whooping cranes to the Florida nonmigratory flock: a structured decision-making approach: report to the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team, September 22, 2008

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, Clinton T.; Converse, Sarah J.; Folk, Martin J.; Boughton, Robin; Brooks, Bill; French, John B.; O'Meara, Timothy; Putnam, Michael; Rodgers, James; Spalding, Marilyn

    2008-01-01

    We used a structured decision-making approach to inform the decision of whether the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission should request of the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team that additional whooping crane chicks be released into the Florida Non-Migratory Population (FNMP). Structured decision-making is an application of decision science that strives to produce transparent, replicable, and defensible decisions that recognize the appropriate roles of management policy and science in decision-making. We present a multi-objective decision framework, where management objectives include successful establishment of a whooping crane population in Florida, minimization of costs, positive public relations, information gain, and providing a supply of captive-reared birds to alternative crane release projects, such as the Eastern Migratory Population. We developed models to predict the outcome relative to each of these objectives under 29 different scenarios of the release methodology used from 1993 to 2004, including options of no further releases and variable numbers of releases per year over the next 5-30 years. In particular, we developed a detailed set of population projection models, which make substantially different predictions about the probability of successful establishment of the FNMP. We used expert elicitation to develop prior model weights (measures of confidence in population model predictions); the results of the population model weighting and modelaveraging exercise indicated that the probability of successful establishment of the FNMP ranged from 9% if no additional releases are made, to as high as 41% with additional releases. We also used expert elicitation to develop weights (relative values) on the set of identified objectives, and we then used a formal optimization technique for identifying the optimal decision, which considers the tradeoffs between objectives. The optimal decision was identified as release of 3 cohorts (24

  16. Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems-Analysis Decision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinan, Frank; Stabler, Tom

    2008-01-01

    This case study stresses the need to broadly consider an entire system, including all of the energy inputs and outputs involved, to determine the real efficiency of that system. It also asks its student audience to consider the role that scientific input plays in policy decision-making processes. It emphasizes that, despite the importance of this…

  17. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  18. Managerial Analysis and Decision Support: A Guidebook and Case Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Association of College and University Business Officers (NJ3), 2004

    2004-01-01

    Developed and edited by the National Association of College and University Business Officers' (NACUBO's) Accounting Principles Council, this guidebook, written by highly experienced, seasoned college and university leaders, is designed to help readers make sense of today's world and provide the right tools to make the right decisions. The book,…

  19. THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION INFORMATION SYSTEM (CADDIS) - 2007 UPDATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based ...

  20. Situated Analysis of Team Handball Players' Decisions: An Exploratory Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lenzen, Benoit; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

    2009-01-01

    This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated-action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship…

  1. Marital Decision Making: A Language-Action Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krueger, Dorothy Lenk

    A study analyzed the decision making process of a dual-career married couple debating whether they should relocate for his or her career. Their interaction was examined and interpreted through multiple components of conversational context, such as institutional constraints influencing the couple, their shared knowledge and perceptions, the…

  2. Counseling Students' Decision Making Regarding Teaching Effectiveness: A Conjoint Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pietrzak, Dale; Duncan, Kelly; Korcuska, James S.

    2008-01-01

    The authors examined the relative importance of 4 attributes of decision making for student evaluation of teaching effectiveness: perceived knowledge base of the professor, professor's delivery style, course organization, and course workload. Participants were 234 counseling graduate students from 6 midwestern universities in the United States.…

  3. MAPPIN'SDM – The Multifocal Approach to Sharing in Shared Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Kasper, Jürgen; Hoffmann, Frauke; Heesen, Christoph; Köpke, Sascha; Geiger, Friedemann

    2012-01-01

    Background The wide scale permeation of health care by the shared decision making concept (SDM) reflects its relevance and advanced stage of development. An increasing number of studies evaluating the efficacy of SDM use instruments based on various sub-constructs administered from different viewpoints. However, as the concept has never been captured in operable core definition it is quite difficult to link these parts of evidence. This study aims at investigating interrelations of SDM indicators administered from different perspectives. Method A comprehensive inventory was developed mapping judgements from different perspectives (observer, doctor, patient) and constructs (behavior, perception) referring to three units (doctor, patient, doctor-patient-dyad) and an identical set of SDM-indicators. The inventory adopted the existing approaches, but added additional observer foci (patient and doctor-patient-dyad) and relevant indicators hitherto neglected by existing instruments. The complete inventory comprising a doctor-patient-questionnaire and an observer-instrument was applied to 40 decision consultations from 10 physicians from different medical fields. Convergent validities were calculated on the basis of Pearson correlation coefficients. Results Reliabilities for all scales were high to excellent. No correlations were found between observer and patients or physicians neither for means nor for single items. Judgements of doctors and patients were moderately related. Correlations between the observer scales and within the subjective perspectives were high. Inter-perspective agreement was not related to SDM performance or patient activity. Conclusion The study demonstrates the contribution to involvement made by each of the relevant perspectives and emphasizes the need for an inter-subjective approach regarding SDM measurement. PMID:22514677

  4. SNR and noise measurements for medical imaging: I. A practical approach based on statistical decision theory.

    PubMed

    Tapiovaara, M J; Wagner, R F

    1993-01-01

    A method of measuring the image quality of medical imaging equipment is considered within the framework of statistical decision theory. In this approach, images are regarded as random vectors and image quality is defined in the context of the image information available for performing a specified detection or discrimination task. The approach provides a means of measuring image quality, as related to the detection of an image detail of interest, without reference to the actual physical mechanisms involved in image formation and without separate measurements of signal transfer characteristics or image noise. The measurement does not, however, consider deterministic errors in the image; they need a separate evaluation for imaging modalities where they are of concern. The detectability of an image detail can be expressed in terms of the ideal observer's signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at the decision level. Often a good approximation to this SNR can be obtained by employing sub-optimal observers, whose performance correlates well with the performance of human observers as well. In this paper the measurement of SNR is based on implementing algorithmic realizations of specified observers and analysing their responses while actually performing a specified detection task of interest. Three observers are considered: the ideal prewhitening matched filter, the non-prewhitening matched filter, and the DC-suppressing non-prewhitening matched filter. The construction of the ideal observer requires an impractical amount of data and computing, except for the most simple imaging situations. Therefore, the utilization of sub-optimal observers is advised and their performance in detecting a specified signal is discussed. Measurement of noise and SNR has been extended to include temporally varying images and dynamic imaging systems. PMID:8426870

  5. Bayesian Information-Gap Decision Analysis Applied to a CO2 Leakage Problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Malley, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a decision analysis in the presence of uncertainty that combines a non-probabilistic approach (information-gap decision theory) with a probabilistic approach (Bayes' theorem). Bayes' theorem is one of the most popular techniques for probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ). It is effective in many situations, because it updates our understanding of the uncertainties by conditioning on real data using a mathematically rigorous technique. However, the application of Bayes' theorem in science and engineering is not always rigorous. There are two reasons for this: (1) We can enumerate the possible outcomes of dice-rolling, but not the possible outcomes of real-world contamination remediation; (2) We can precisely determine conditional probabilities for coin-tossing, but substantial uncertainty surrounds the conditional probabilities for real-world contamination remediation. Of course, Bayes' theorem is rigorously applicable beyond dice-rolling and coin-tossing, but even in cases that are constructed to be simple with ostensibly good probabilistic models, applying Bayes' theorem to the real world may not work as well as one might expect. Bayes' theorem is rigorously applicable only if all possible events can be described, and their conditional probabilities can be derived rigorously. Outside of this domain, it may still be useful, but its use lacks at least some rigor. The information-gap approach allows us to circumvent some of the highlighted shortcomings of Bayes' theorem. In particular, it provides a way to account for possibilities beyond those described by our models, and a way to deal with uncertainty in the conditional distribution that forms the core of Bayesian analysis. We have developed a three-tiered technique enables one to make scientifically defensible decisions in the face of severe uncertainty such as is found in many geologic problems. To demonstrate the applicability, we apply the technique to a CO2 leakage problem. The goal is to

  6. Decision making in healthy participants on the Iowa Gambling Task: new insights from an operant approach

    PubMed Central

    Bull, Peter N.; Tippett, Lynette J.; Addis, Donna Rose

    2015-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has contributed greatly to the study of affective decision making. However, researchers have observed high inter-study and inter-individual variability in IGT performance in healthy participants, and many are classified as impaired using standard criteria. Additionally, while decision-making deficits are often attributed to atypical sensitivity to reward and/or punishment, the IGT lacks an integrated sensitivity measure. Adopting an operant perspective, two experiments were conducted to explore these issues. In Experiment 1, 50 healthy participants completed a 200-trial version of the IGT which otherwise closely emulated Bechara et al.'s (1999) original computer task. Group data for Trials 1–100 closely replicated Bechara et al.'s original findings of high net scores and preferences for advantageous decks, suggesting that implementations that depart significantly from Bechara's standard IGT contribute to inter-study variability. During Trials 101–200, mean net scores improved significantly and the percentage of participants meeting the “impaired” criterion was halved. An operant-style stability criterion applied to individual data revealed this was likely related to individual differences in learning rate. Experiment 2 used a novel operant card task—the Auckland Card Task (ACT)—to derive quantitative estimates of sensitivity using the generalized matching law. Relative to individuals who mastered the IGT, persistent poor performers on the IGT exhibited significantly lower sensitivity to magnitudes (but not frequencies) of rewards and punishers on the ACT. Overall, our findings demonstrate the utility of operant-style analysis of IGT data and the potential of applying operant concurrent-schedule procedures to the study of human decision making. PMID:25904884

  7. Using multicriteria decision analysis to support research priority setting in biomedical translational research projects.

    PubMed

    de Graaf, Gimon; Postmus, Douwe; Buskens, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Translational research is conducted to achieve a predefined set of economic or societal goals. As a result, investment decisions on where available resources have the highest potential in achieving these goals have to be made. In this paper, we first describe how multicriteria decision analysis can assist in defining the decision context and in ensuring that all relevant aspects of the decision problem are incorporated in the decision making process. We then present the results of a case study to support priority setting in a translational research consortium aimed at reducing the burden of disease of type 2 diabetes. During problem structuring, we identified four research alternatives (primary, secondary, tertiary microvascular, and tertiary macrovascular prevention) and a set of six decision criteria. Scoring of these alternatives against the criteria was done using a combination of expert judgement and previously published data. Lastly, decision analysis was performed using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis, which allows for the combined use of numerical and ordinal data. We found that the development of novel techniques applied in secondary prevention would be a poor investment of research funds. The ranking of the remaining alternatives was however strongly dependent on the decision maker's preferences for certain criteria. PMID:26495288

  8. A decision-theoretic approach to the display of information for time-critical decisions: The Vista project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horvitz, Eric; Ruokangas, Corinne; Srinivas, Sampath; Barry, Matthew

    1993-01-01

    We describe a collaborative research and development effort between the Palo Alto Laboratory of the Rockwell Science Center, Rockwell Space Operations Company, and the Propulsion Systems Section of NASA JSC to design computational tools that can manage the complexity of information displayed to human operators in high-stakes, time-critical decision contexts. We shall review an application from NASA Mission Control and describe how we integrated a probabilistic diagnostic model and a time-dependent utility model, with techniques for managing the complexity of computer displays. Then, we shall describe the behavior of VPROP, a system constructed to demonstrate promising display-management techniques. Finally, we shall describe our current research directions on the Vista 2 follow-on project.

  9. Model-based decision analysis of remedial alternatives using info-gap theory and Agent-Based Analysis of Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity (ABAGUS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harp, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

    2011-12-01

    A newly developed methodology to model-based decision analysis is presented. The methodology incorporates a sampling approach, referred to as Agent-Based Analysis of Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity (ABAGUS; Harp & Vesselinov; 2011), that efficiently collects sets of acceptable solutions (i.e. acceptable model parameter sets) for different levels of a model performance metric representing the consistency of model predictions to observations. In this case, the performance metric is based on model residuals (i.e. discrepancies between observations and simulations). ABAGUS collects acceptable solutions from a discretized parameter space and stores them in a KD-tree for efficient retrieval. The parameter space domain (parameter minimum/maximum ranges) and discretization are predefined. On subsequent visits to collected locations, agents are provided with a modified value of the performance metric, and the model solution is not recalculated. The modified values of the performance metric sculpt the response surface (convexities become concavities), repulsing agents from collected regions. This promotes global exploration of the parameter space and discourages reinvestigation of regions of previously collected acceptable solutions. The resulting sets of acceptable solutions are formulated into a decision analysis using concepts from info-gap theory (Ben-Haim, 2006). Using info-gap theory, the decision robustness and opportuneness are quantified, providing measures of the immunity to failure and windfall, respectively, of alternative decisions. The approach is intended for cases where the information is extremely limited, resulting in non-probabilistic uncertainties concerning model properties such as boundary and initial conditions, model parameters, conceptual model elements, etc. The information provided by this analysis is weaker than the information provided by probabilistic decision analyses (i.e. posterior parameter distributions are not produced), however, this

  10. Analysis of acid rain patterns in northeastern China using a decision tree method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiuying; Jiang, Hong; Jin, Jiaxin; Xu, Xiaohua; Zhang, Qingxin

    2012-01-01

    Acid rain is a major regional-scale environmental problem in China. To control acid rain pollution and to protect the ecological environment, it is urgent to document acid rain patterns in various regions of China. Taking Liaoning Province as the study area, the present work focused on the spatial and temporal variations of acid rains in northeastern China. It presents a means for predicting the occurrence of acid rain using geographic position, terrain characteristics, routinely monitored meteorological factors and column concentrations of atmospheric SO 2 and NO 2. The analysis applies a decision tree approach to the foregoing observation data. Results showed that: (1) acid rain occurred at 17 stations among the 81 monitoring stations in Liaoning Province, with the frequency of acid rain from 0 to 84.38%; (2) summer had the most acid rain occurrences followed by spring and autumn, and the winter had the least; (3) the total accuracy for the simulation of precipitation pH (pH ≤ 4.5, 4.5 < pH ≤ 5.6, and pH > 5.6) was 98.04% using the decision tree method known as C5. The simulation results also indicated that the distance to coastline, elevation, wind direction, wind speed, rainfall amount, atmospheric pressure, and the precursors of acid rain all have a strong influence on the occurrence of acid rains in northeastern China.

  11. An Efficient Soft Set-Based Approach for Conflict Analysis.

    PubMed

    Sutoyo, Edi; Mungad, Mungad; Hamid, Suraya; Herawan, Tutut

    2016-01-01

    Conflict analysis has been used as an important tool in economic, business, governmental and political dispute, games, management negotiations, military operations and etc. There are many mathematical formal models have been proposed to handle conflict situations and one of the most popular is rough set theory. With the ability to handle vagueness from the conflict data set, rough set theory has been successfully used. However, computational time is still an issue when determining the certainty, coverage, and strength of conflict situations. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to handle conflict situations, based on some ideas using soft set theory. The novelty of the proposed approach is that, unlike in rough set theory that uses decision rules, it is based on the concept of co-occurrence of parameters in soft set theory. We illustrate the proposed approach by means of a tutorial example of voting analysis in conflict situations. Furthermore, we elaborate the proposed approach on real world dataset of political conflict in Indonesian Parliament. We show that, the proposed approach achieves lower computational time as compared to rough set theory of up to 3.9%. PMID:26928627

  12. An Efficient Soft Set-Based Approach for Conflict Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Sutoyo, Edi; Mungad, Mungad; Hamid, Suraya; Herawan, Tutut

    2016-01-01

    Conflict analysis has been used as an important tool in economic, business, governmental and political dispute, games, management negotiations, military operations and etc. There are many mathematical formal models have been proposed to handle conflict situations and one of the most popular is rough set theory. With the ability to handle vagueness from the conflict data set, rough set theory has been successfully used. However, computational time is still an issue when determining the certainty, coverage, and strength of conflict situations. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to handle conflict situations, based on some ideas using soft set theory. The novelty of the proposed approach is that, unlike in rough set theory that uses decision rules, it is based on the concept of co-occurrence of parameters in soft set theory. We illustrate the proposed approach by means of a tutorial example of voting analysis in conflict situations. Furthermore, we elaborate the proposed approach on real world dataset of political conflict in Indonesian Parliament. We show that, the proposed approach achieves lower computational time as compared to rough set theory of up to 3.9%. PMID:26928627

  13. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    SciTech Connect

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare.

  14. Warfighter decision making performance analysis as an investment priority driver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornley, David J.; Dean, David F.; Kirk, James C.

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the relative value of alternative tactics, techniques and procedures (TTP) and information systems requires measures of the costs and benefits of each, and methods for combining and comparing those measures. The NATO Code of Best Practice for Command and Control Assessment explains that decision making quality would ideally be best assessed on outcomes. Lessons learned in practice can be assessed statistically to support this, but experimentation with alternate measures in live conflict is undesirable. To this end, the development of practical experimentation to parameterize effective constructive simulation and analytic modelling for system utility prediction is desirable. The Land Battlespace Systems Department of Dstl has modeled human development of situational awareness to support constructive simulation by empirically discovering how evidence is weighed according to circumstance, personality, training and briefing. The human decision maker (DM) provides the backbone of the information processing activity associated with military engagements because of inherent uncertainty associated with combat operations. To develop methods for representing the process in order to assess equipment and non-technological interventions such as training and TTPs we are developing componentized or modularized timed analytic stochastic model components and instruments as part of a framework to support quantitative assessment of intelligence production and consumption methods in a human decision maker-centric mission space. In this paper, we formulate an abstraction of the human intelligence fusion process from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory's (Dstl's) INCIDER model to include in our framework, and synthesize relevant cost and benefit characteristics.

  15. Decision support system for the analysis of hospital operation indicators.

    PubMed

    Wu, Fan; Lin, Jiunn Rong; Tsai, Wen-Chen

    2002-12-01

    The inauguration of national health insurance (NHI) in many countries and their worsening financial condition has increased the sensitivity to operational cost and efficiency in hospitals. For several years, hospitals have been monitoring their operations by analyzing the financial and operational reports that are provided. Because of the rapidly changing character of the medical industry, statistical data shown on paper are no longer sufficient for decision makers. This paper describes a decision support system (DSS) for hospital administrators to assist in analyzing their operations efficiently and precisely. In hospitals, operational data of outpatients and inpatients are now stored on computers, resulting in much easier and faster data acquisition for administrators. The proposed system makes suggestions to hospital administrators and is able to self-learn to improve its future usefulness. With the dual capabilities of integrating evaluations and data collecting, the system can assist administrators in discovering and resolving problems quickly. The system provides multidimensional and multilevel analyses, by using data warehousing techniques, and generates appropriate advice to users by employing decision-making methodology. The self-learning function of the system makes it work like an expert, continually modifying its content (knowledge) and generating advice that is promptly updated to accord with changes in the medical industry. PMID:12594099

  16. Multi-objective Decision Based Available Transfer Capability in Deregulated Power System Using Heuristic Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasam, Gopi Krishna; Manohar, T. Gowri

    2015-07-01

    Determination of available transfer capability (ATC) requires the use of experience, intuition and exact judgment in order to meet several significant aspects in the deregulated environment. Based on these points, this paper proposes two heuristic approaches to compute ATC. The first proposed heuristic algorithm integrates the five methods known as continuation repeated power flow, repeated optimal power flow, radial basis function neural network, back propagation neural network and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system to obtain ATC. The second proposed heuristic model is used to obtain multiple ATC values. Out of these, a specific ATC value will be selected based on a number of social, economic, deregulated environmental constraints and related to specific applications like optimization, on-line monitoring, and ATC forecasting known as multi-objective decision based optimal ATC. The validity of results obtained through these proposed methods are scrupulously verified on various buses of the IEEE 24-bus reliable test system. The results presented and derived conclusions in this paper are very useful for planning, operation, maintaining of reliable power in any power system and its monitoring in an on-line environment of deregulated power system. In this way, the proposed heuristic methods would contribute the best possible approach to assess multiple objective ATC using integrated methods.

  17. Tailored approach in inguinal hernia repair - decision tree based on the guidelines.

    PubMed

    Köckerling, Ferdinand; Schug-Pass, Christine

    2014-01-01

    The endoscopic procedures TEP and TAPP and the open techniques Lichtenstein, Plug and Patch, and PHS currently represent the gold standard in inguinal hernia repair recommended in the guidelines of the European Hernia Society, the International Endohernia Society, and the European Association of Endoscopic Surgery. Eighty-two percent of experienced hernia surgeons use the "tailored approach," the differentiated use of the several inguinal hernia repair techniques depending on the findings of the patient, trying to minimize the risks. The following differential therapeutic situations must be distinguished in inguinal hernia repair: unilateral in men, unilateral in women, bilateral, scrotal, after previous pelvic and lower abdominal surgery, no general anesthesia possible, recurrence, and emergency surgery. Evidence-based guidelines and consensus conferences of experts give recommendations for the best approach in the individual situation of a patient. This review tries to summarize the recommendations of the various guidelines and to transfer them into a practical decision tree for the daily work of surgeons performing inguinal hernia repair. PMID:25593944

  18. A Decision Making Analysis of Persuasive Argumentation and the Choice Shift Effect

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vinokur, Amiram; And Others

    1975-01-01

    A subjective expected utility (SEU) decision-making analysis was performed on the content of arguments generated by subjects privately or during group discussion in response to choice-dilemmas shown to shift toward risk and caution. (Editor)

  19. Examining Preservice Teachers' Decision Behaviors and Individual Differences in Three Online Case-Based Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cevik, Yasemin Demiraslan; Andre, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    This study compared the impact of three types of case-based methods (case-based reasoning, worked example, and faded worked example) on preservice teachers' (n = 71) interaction with decision tasks and whether decision related measures (task difficulty, mental effort, decision making performance) were associated with the differences in student…

  20. Approaches to remote sensing data analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pettinger, Lawrence R.

    1978-01-01

    Objectives: To present an overview of the essential steps in the remote sensing data analysis process, and to compare and contrast manual (visual) and automated analysis methods Rationale: This overview is intended to provide a framework for choosing a manual of digital analysis approach to collecting resource information. It can also be used as a basis for understanding/evaluating invited papers and poster sessions during the Symposium

  1. Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

  2. A flexible and national scale approach to coastal decision tools incorporating sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, B.; Kulp, S. A.; Tebaldi, C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate science and sea level models constantly evolve. In this context, maps and analyses of exposure to sea level rise - or coastal flooding aggravated by rise - quickly fall out of date when based upon a specific model projection or projection set. At the same time, policy makers and planners prefer simple and stable risk assessments for their future planning. Here, using Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, we describe and illustrate a decision tool framework that separates the spatial and temporal dimensions of coastal exposure in order to help alleviate this tension. The Risk Finder presents local maps and exposure analyses simply as functions of a discrete set of local water levels. In turn, each water level may be achieved at different times, with different probabilities, according to different combinations of sea level change, storm surge and tide. This temporal dimension is expressed in a separate module of the Risk Finder, so that users may explore the probabilities and time frames of different water levels, as a function of different sea level models and emissions scenarios. With such an approach, decision-makers can quickly get a sense of the range of risks for each water level given current understanding. At the same time, the models and scenarios can easily be updated over time as the science evolves, while avoiding the labor of regenerating maps and exposure analyses. In this talk, we will also use the tool to highlight key findings from a new U.S. national assessment of sea level and coastal flood risk. For example, more than 2.5 million people and $500 billion dollars of property value sit on land less than 2 meters above the high tide line in Florida alone.

  3. A decision support system prototype including human factors based on the TOGA meta-theory approach

    SciTech Connect

    Cappelli, M.; Memmi, F.; Gadomski, A. M.; Sepielli, M.

    2012-07-01

    The human contribution to the risk of operation of complex technological systems is often not negligible and sometimes tends to become significant, as shown by many reports on incidents and accidents occurred in the past inside Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). An error of a human operator of a NPP can derive by both omission and commission. For instance, complex commission errors can also lead to significant catastrophic technological accidents, as for the case of the Three Mile Island accident. Typically, the problem is analyzed by focusing on the single event chain that has provoked the incident or accident. What is needed is a general framework able to include as many parameters as possible, i.e. both technological and human factors. Such a general model could allow to envisage an omission or commission error before it can happen or, alternatively, suggest preferred actions to do in order to take countermeasures to neutralize the effect of the error before it becomes critical. In this paper, a preliminary Decision Support System (DSS) based on the so-called (-) TOGA meta-theory approach is presented. The application of such a theory to the management of nuclear power plants has been presented in the previous ICAPP 2011. Here, a human factor simulator prototype is proposed in order to include the effect of human errors in the decision path. The DSS has been developed using a TRIGA research reactor as reference plant, and implemented using the LabVIEW programming environment and the Finite State Machine (FSM) model The proposed DSS shows how to apply the Universal Reasoning Paradigm (URP) and the Universal Management Paradigm (UMP) to a real plant context. The DSS receives inputs from instrumentation data and gives as output a suggested decision. It is obtained as the result of an internal elaborating process based on a performance function. The latter, describes the degree of satisfaction and efficiency, which are dependent on the level of responsibility related to

  4. Application of decision analysis to forest road deactivation in unstable terrain.

    PubMed

    Allison, Clay; Sidle, Roy C; Tait, David

    2004-02-01

    Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100-m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions. PMID:15285396

  5. Multi-attribute decision analysis for the protection of groundwater resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shih, C. S.; Ingram, J. W.

    1981-05-01

    Decision analysis is a powerful management tool for situations involving a complex set of alternatives for a particular set of objectives. Decision analysis, coupled with multi-attribute utility assessments, is shown to be a viable problem solving method for a complex water-resource management problem. The City of San Antonio is faced with the difficult decision of how to protect its sole water source, the Edwards aquifer, from the threat of pollution resulting from urban sprawl over the aquifer recharge zone. This decision problem has been structured as a decision analysis model in an effort to provide local decision-makers with a highly objective and easily-documented means of deciding among alternative management policies. Multi-attribute utility functions were used as the measure of effectiveness for the various alternatives. The necessary judgmental information was gathered from a group of local water-resource decision-makers through a series of cyclic opinion surveys. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to illustrate the degree to which the solution of the problem was dependent upon the identified uncertain events.

  6. Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in several countries of Africa and may pose a risk to all pig producing areas on the continent. Official ASF reporting is often rare and there remains limited awareness of the continent-wide distribution of the disease. In the absence of accurate ASF outbreak data and few quantitative studies on the epidemiology of the disease in Africa, we used spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to derive predictions of the continental distribution of suitability for ASF persistence in domestic pig populations as part of sylvatic or domestic transmission cycles. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in defining suitability, we modelled decisions within the MCDA framework using a stochastic approach. The predictive performance of suitability estimates was assessed via a partial ROC analysis using ASF outbreak data reported to the OIE since 2005. Results Outputs from the spatial MCDA indicate that large areas of sub-Saharan Africa may be suitable for ASF persistence as part of either domestic or sylvatic transmission cycles. Areas with high suitability for pig to pig transmission (‘domestic cycles’) were estimated to occur throughout sub-Saharan Africa, whilst areas with high suitability for introduction from wildlife reservoirs (‘sylvatic cycles’) were found predominantly in East, Central and Southern Africa. Based on average AUC ratios from the partial ROC analysis, the predictive ability of suitability estimates for domestic cycles alone was considerably higher than suitability estimates for sylvatic cycles alone, or domestic and sylvatic cycles in combination. Conclusions This study provides the first standardised estimates of the distribution of suitability for ASF transmission associated with domestic and sylvatic cycles in Africa. We provide further evidence for the utility of knowledge-driven risk mapping in animal health, particularly in data

  7. Systems Analysis Approach for the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kimmel, William M.

    2011-01-01

    This conference paper describes the current systems analysis approach being implemented for the Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project within the Integrated Systems Research Program under the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. The scope and purpose of these systems studies are introduced followed by a methodology overview. The approach involves both top-down and bottoms-up components to provide NASA s stakeholders with a rationale for the prioritization and tracking of a portfolio of technologies which enable the future fleet of aircraft to operate with a simultaneous reduction of aviation noise, emissions and fuel-burn impacts to our environment. Examples of key current results and relevant decision support conclusions are presented along with a forecast of the planned analyses to follow.

  8. Systemic Analysis Approaches for Air Transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Conway, Sheila

    2005-01-01

    Air transportation system designers have had only limited success using traditional operations research and parametric modeling approaches in their analyses of innovations. They need a systemic methodology for modeling of safety-critical infrastructure that is comprehensive, objective, and sufficiently concrete, yet simple enough to be used with reasonable investment. The methodology must also be amenable to quantitative analysis so issues of system safety and stability can be rigorously addressed. However, air transportation has proven itself an extensive, complex system whose behavior is difficult to describe, no less predict. There is a wide range of system analysis techniques available, but some are more appropriate for certain applications than others. Specifically in the area of complex system analysis, the literature suggests that both agent-based models and network analysis techniques may be useful. This paper discusses the theoretical basis for each approach in these applications, and explores their historic and potential further use for air transportation analysis.

  9. Decision Styles and Rationality: An Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the General Decision-Making Style Inventory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curseu, Petru Lucian; Schruijer, Sandra G. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the five decision-making styles evaluated by the General Decision-Making Style Inventory, indecisiveness, and rationality in decision making. Using a sample of 102 middle-level managers, the results show that the rational style positively predicts rationality in decision making and negatively…

  10. Teaching Inclusive Generic Pronoun Usage: The Effectiveness of an Authority Innovation-Decision Approach versus an Optional Innovation-Decision Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flanagan, Anna M.; Todd-Mancillas, William R.

    1982-01-01

    Assessed the effectiveness of two methods for teaching students to write using inclusive generic pronouns. Found that both approaches were effective but that the authority approach (one forced upon an individual) produced more change in pronoun usage than the optional approach (one made by the individual by and for him/herself). (PD)

  11. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Mackey, H.E.; Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D.

    1996-05-31

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object`s geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object`s orientation

  12. Decision curve analysis for assessing the usefulness of tests for making decisions to treat: an application to tests for prodromal psychosis.

    PubMed

    Pulleyblank, Ryan; Chuma, Jefter; Gilbody, Simon M; Thompson, Carl

    2013-09-01

    For a test to be considered useful for making treatment decisions, it is necessary that making treatment decisions based on the results of the test be a preferable strategy to making treatment decisions without the test. Decision curve analysis is a framework for assessing when a test would be expected to be useful, which integrates evidence of a test's performance characteristics (sensitivity and specificity), condition prevalence among at-risk patients, and patient preferences for treatment. We describe decision curve analysis generally and illustrate its potential through an application to tests for prodromal psychosis. Clinical psychosis is often preceded by a prodromal phase, but not all those with prodromal symptoms proceed to develop full psychosis. Patients identified as at risk for developing psychosis may be considered for proactive treatment to mitigate development of clinically defined psychosis. Tests exist to help identify those at-risk patients most likely to develop psychosis, but it is uncertain when these tests would be considered useful for making proactive treatment decisions. We apply decision curve analysis to results from a systematic review of studies investigating clinical tests for predicting the development of psychosis in at-risk populations, and present resulting decision curves that illustrate when the tests may be expected to be useful for making proactive treatment decisions. PMID:23544398

  13. Using decision analysis techniques to deal with "unanswerable" questions in idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura.

    PubMed

    Klaassen, Robert

    2003-12-01

    Idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) is a common disorder with rare adverse outcomes. This makes it a particularly difficult area in which to undertake conventional studies. An alternative method for solving clinical questions is decision analysis, which is in essence a computer-assisted synthesis of the literature. Using the example of a newly diagnosed ITP patient, the author attempts to answer the question of whether a bone marrow aspirate (BMA) is required prior to starting steroids. Using decision analysis methodology, the author determines that BMA is not essential prior to starting steroids. More importantly, three variables critical to the decision-making process are determined: the risk of death from the BMA procedure, the altered chance of survival for a patient with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) inappropriately given steroids, and how sensitive the complete blood count is at determining the risk of ALL. This scenario demonstrates the value of decision analysis and lays the groundwork for future endeavors. PMID:14668643

  14. THE INTERACTIVE DECISION COMMITTEE FOR CHEMICAL TOXICITY ANALYSIS.

    PubMed

    Kang, Chaeryon; Zhu, Hao; Wright, Fred A; Zou, Fei; Kosorok, Michael R

    2012-01-01

    We introduce the Interactive Decision Committee method for classification when high-dimensional feature variables are grouped into feature categories. The proposed method uses the interactive relationships among feature categories to build base classifiers which are combined using decision committees. A two-stage or a single-stage 5-fold cross-validation technique is utilized to decide the total number of base classifiers to be combined. The proposed procedure is useful for classifying biochemicals on the basis of toxicity activity, where the feature space consists of chemical descriptors and the responses are binary indicators of toxicity activity. Each descriptor belongs to at least one descriptor category. The support vector machine, the random forests, and the tree-based AdaBoost algorithms are utilized as classifier inducers. Forward selection is used to select the best combinations of the base classifiers given the number of base classifiers. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms a single large, unaggregated classifier in the presence of interactive feature category information. We applied the proposed method to two toxicity data sets associated with chemical compounds. For these data sets, the proposed method improved classification performance for the majority of outcomes compared to a single large, unaggregated classifier. PMID:24415822

  15. An analysis of soil arsenic records of decision.

    PubMed

    Davis, A; Sherwin, D; Ditmars, R; Hoenke, K A

    2001-06-15

    In 1986 the US EPA created the National Priority List (NPL) that now comprises in excess of 2,000 sites nationwide, with arsenic the second most common inorganic constituent. A survey of 69 Records of Decision (RODs) written between 1985 and 1998 for which arsenic was a major driver found that 84% of cleanup goals were risk-driven and 16% were background-driven, with a wide range of soil-arsenic cleanup standards for 10(-6) residential risk goals (2-305 mg/kg). In comparison, the range of background-based cleanup goals was much narrower (8-21 mg/kg). ROD soil arsenic concentrations exhibit no statistically significanttemporal trend, but on a geographic basis, EPA Regions 6, 8, 9, and 10 had some of the higher decisions. The risk assessment process is important in defining cleanup goals; however routine use of site-specific variables (i.e., bioavailability, realistic tenure in both residential and occupational settings, natural attenuation of arsenic in groundwater, etc.) is necessary to ensure an accurate assessment of potential site risks and to preclude over-remediation that may result from the use of default risk variables. PMID:11432540

  16. Genital surgery for disorders of sex development: implementing a shared decision-making approach.

    PubMed

    Karkazis, Katrina; Tamar-Mattis, Anne; Kon, Alexander A

    2010-08-01

    Ongoing controversy surrounds early genital surgery for children with disorders of sex development, making decisions about these procedures extraordinarily complex. Professional organizations have encouraged healthcare providers to adopt shared decision-making due to its broad potential to improve the decision-making process, perhaps most so when data are lacking, when there is no clear "best-choice" treatment, when decisions involve more than one choice, where each choice has both advantages and disadvantages, and where the ranking of options depends heavily on the decision-maker's values. We present a 6-step model for shared decision-making in decisions about genital surgery for disorders of sex development: (1) Set the stage and develop an appropriate team; (2) Establish preferences for information and roles in decision-making; (3) Perceive and address emotions; (4) Define concerns and values; (5) Identify options and present evidence; and (6) Share responsibility for making a decision. As long as controversy persists regarding surgery for DSD, an SDM process can facilitate the increased sharing of relevant information essential for making important health care decisions. PMID:21073122

  17. Using fuzzy logic analysis for siting decisions of infiltration trenches for highway runoff control.

    PubMed

    Ki, Seo Jin; Ray, Chittaranjan

    2014-09-15

    Determining optimal locations for best management practices (BMPs), including their field considerations and limitations, plays an important role for effective stormwater management. However, these issues have been often overlooked in modeling studies that focused on downstream water quality benefits. This study illustrates the methodology of locating infiltration trenches at suitable locations from spatial overlay analyses which combine multiple layers that address different aspects of field application into a composite map. Using seven thematic layers for each analysis, fuzzy logic was employed to develop a site suitability map for infiltration trenches, whereas the DRASTIC method was used to produce a groundwater vulnerability map on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, USA. In addition, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), one of the most popular overlay analyses, was used for comparison to fuzzy logic. The results showed that the AHP and fuzzy logic methods developed significantly different index maps in terms of best locations and suitability scores. Specifically, the AHP method provided a maximum level of site suitability due to its inherent aggregation approach of all input layers in a linear equation. The most eligible areas in locating infiltration trenches were determined from the superposition of the site suitability and groundwater vulnerability maps using the fuzzy AND operator. The resulting map successfully balanced qualification criteria for a low risk of groundwater contamination and the best BMP site selection. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the suitability scores were strongly affected by the algorithms embedded in fuzzy logic; therefore, caution is recommended with their use in overlay analysis. Accordingly, this study demonstrates that the fuzzy logic analysis can not only be used to improve spatial decision quality along with other overlay approaches, but also is combined with general water quality models for initial and refined

  18. Geothermal well-field and power-plant investment-decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Amundsen, C.B.; Edelstein, R.H.; Blair, P.D.

    1981-05-31

    Investment decisions pertaining to hydrothermal well fields and electric power plants are analyzed. Geothermal investment decision models were developed which, when coupled to a site-specific stochastic cash flow model, estimate the conditional probability of a positive decision to invest in the development of geothermal resource areas. Quantitative decision models have been developed for each major category of investor currently involved in the hydrothermal projects. These categories include: large, diversified energy resource corporations; independently operating resource firms; investor-owned electric utilities; municipal electric utilities; state-run resource agencies; and private third-party power plant investors. The geothermal cash flow, the investment decision analysis, and an example of model application for assessing the likely development of geothermal resource areas are described. The sensitivity of this investment behavior to federal incentives and research goals is also analyzed and discussed.

  19. A Decision-Oriented Approach for Detecting and Modeling Non-Stationary Flood Frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecht, J. S.; Vogel, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in the frequency of extreme floods have been observed and anticipated in many hydrologic settings in response to numerous drivers of environmental change, including climate, land cover, and infrastructure. To help decision-makers design flood control infrastructure in settings with non-stationary hydrologic regimes, a parsimonious approach for detecting and modeling trends in extreme floods is needed. An approach using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression can accommodate nonstationarity in both the mean and variance of flood series while simultaneously offering a means of (i) analytically evaluating type I and type II trend detection errors, (ii) analytically generating expressions of uncertainty, such as confidence and prediction intervals, (iii) providing updated estimates of the frequency of floods exceeding the flood of record, (iv) accommodating a wide range of non-linear functions through ladder of powers transformations, and (v) communicating hydrologic changes in a single graphical image. Previous research has shown that the two-parameter lognormal distribution can adequately model the annual maximum flood distribution of both stationary and non-stationary hydrologic regimes in many regions of the United States. A simple logarithmic transformation of annual maximum flood series makes an OLS regression modeling approach especially suitable for creating a non-stationary flood frequency distribution with parameters that are conditional upon time or a physically meaningful covariate. While the heteroscedasticity of some OLS models may be viewed as an impediment, it also presents an opportunity for characterizing both the conditional mean and variance of annual maximum floods. Through a case study of an urbanizing watershed, we demonstrate that accounting for trends in both the mean and variance can yield substantially different estimates of time-dependent extreme flood quantiles than only considering trends in the mean. When applied to risk

  20. A Fourth-Generation Approach to Decision Support in a Private University. AIR Annual 1984 Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glover, Robert H.

    The demand for decision-support systems (DSSs) at the University of Hartford and the use of current software systems based on an information center approach are discussed. It is noted that declining enrollment demand and financial stress in tuition and enrollment-dependent universities requires a flexible and dynamic DSS for effective planning and…

  1. Comparison of Deck- and Trial-Based Approaches to Advantageous Decision Making on the Iowa Gambling Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Visagan, Ravindran; Xiang, Ally; Lamar, Melissa

    2012-01-01

    We compared the original deck-based model of advantageous decision making assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) with a trial-based approach across behavioral and physiological outcomes in 33 younger adults (15 men, 18 women; 22.2 [plus or minus] 3.7 years of age). One administration of the IGT with simultaneous measurement of skin conductance…

  2. Fuzzy multiple-criteria decision-making approach for industrial green engineering.

    PubMed

    Chiou, Hua-kai; Tzeng, Gwo-hshiung

    2002-12-01

    This paper describes a fuzzy hierarchical analytic approach to determine the weighting of subjective judgments. In addition, it presents a nonadditive fuzzy integral technique to evaluate a green engineering industry case as a fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (FMCDM) problem. When the investment strategies are evaluated from various aspects, such as economic effectiveness, technical feasibility, and environmental regulation, it can be regarded as an FMCDM problem. Since stakeholders cannot clearly estimate each considered criterion in terms of numerical values for the anticipated alternatives/strategies, fuzziness is considered to be applicable. Consequently, this paper uses triangular fuzzy numbers to establish weights and anticipated achievement values. By ranking fuzzy weights and fuzzy synthetic utility values, we can determine the relative importance of criteria and decide the best strategies. This paper applies what is called a lambda fuzzy measure and nonadditive fuzzy integral technique to evaluate the synthetic performance of green engineering strategies for aquatic products processors in Taiwan. In addition, we demonstrate that the nonadditive fuzzy integral is an effective evaluation and appears to be appropriate, especially when the criteria are not independent. PMID:12402097

  3. Toward understanding Malaysian fishermen's decision making on the use of fishing technology: a mental model approach.

    PubMed

    Hamzah, Azimi; Krauss, Steven E; Shaffril, Hayrol A M; Suandi, Turiman; Ismail, Ismi A; Abu Samah, Bahaman

    2014-10-01

    The vast majority of Malaysia's fishermen are located in rural areas, specifically in the Western and Eastern coastal regions of Peninsular Malaysia and the Sabah and Sarawak central zones. In these areas, the fishing industry is relied upon as a major economic contributor to the region's residents. Despite the widespread application of various modern technologies into the fishing industry (i.e., GPS, sonar, echo sounder, remote sensing), and the Malaysian government's efforts to encourage their adoption, many small-scale fishermen in the country's rural areas continue to rely on traditional fishing methods. This refusal to embrace new technologies has resulted in significant losses in fish yields and needed income, and has raised many questions regarding the inputs to decision making of the fishermen. Drawing on multiple literatures, in this article we argue for the use of a mental model approach to gain an in-depth understanding of rural Malaysian fishermen's choices of technology adoption according to four main constructs--prior experience, knowledge, expertise and beliefs or values. To provide needed inputs to agricultural specialists and related policy makers for the development of relevant plans of action, this article aims to provide a way forward for others to understand dispositional barriers to technology adoption among fishermen who use traditional methods in non-Western contexts. PMID:25178962

  4. Helping E-Commerce Consumers Make Good Purchase Decisions: A User Reviews-Based Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Richong; Tran, Thomas T.

    Online product reviews provided by the consumers, who have previously purchased and used some particular products, form a rich source of information for other consumers who would like to study about these products in order to make their purchase decisions. Realizing this great need of consumers, several e-commerce web sites such as Amazon.com offer facilities for consumers to review products and exchange their purchase opinions. Unfortunately, reading through the massive amounts of product reviews available online from many e-communities, forums and newsgroups is not only a tedious task but also an impossible one. Indeed, nowadays consumers need an effective and reliable method to search through those huge sources of information and sort out the most appropriate and helpful product reviews. This paper proposes a model to discover the helpfulness of online product reviews. Product reviews can be analyzed and ranked by our scoring system and those reviews that may help consumers better than others will be found. In addition, we compare our model with a number of machine learning techniques. Our experimental results confirm that our approach is effective in ranking and classifying online product reviews.

  5. A Remote Sensing Approach for Urban Environmental Decision-Making: An Atlanta, Georgia Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Laymon, Charles A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Howell, Burgess F.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Unquestionably, urbanization causes tremendous changes in land cover and land use, as well as impacting a host of environmental characteristics. For example, unlike natural surfaces, urban surfaces have very different thermal energy properties whereby they store solar energy throughout the day and continue to release it as heat well after sunset. This effect, known as the 'Urban Heat Island', serves as a catalyst for chemical reactions from vehicular exhaust and industrial activities leading to the deterioration in air quality, especially exacerbating the production of ground level ozone. 'Cool Community' strategies that utilize remote sensing data, are now being implemented as a way to reduce the impacts of the urban heat island and its subsequent environmental impacts. This presentation focuses on how remote sensing data have been used to provide descriptive and quantitative data for characterizing the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area - particularly for measuring surface energy fluxes, such as the thermal or "heat" energy that emanates from different land cover types across the Atlanta urban landscape. In turn, this information is useful for developing a better understanding of how the thermal characteristics of the city surface affect the urban heat island phenomena and, ultimately, air quality and other environmental parameters over the Atlanta metropolitan region. Additionally, this paper also provides insight on how remote sensing, with its synoptic approach, can be used to provide urban planners, local, state, and federal government officials, and other decision-makers, as well as the general public, with information to better manage urban areas as sustainable environments.

  6. Group personality during collective decision-making: a multi-level approach

    PubMed Central

    Planas-Sitjà, Isaac; Deneubourg, Jean-Louis; Gibon, Céline; Sempo, Grégory

    2015-01-01

    Collective decision-making processes emerge from social feedback networks within a group. Many studies on collective behaviour underestimate the role of individual personality and, as a result, personality is rarely analysed in the context of collective dynamics. Here, we show evidence of sheltering behaviour personality in a gregarious insect (Periplaneta americana), which is characterized by a collective personality at the group level. We also highlight that the individuals within groups exhibited consistent personality traits in their probability of sheltering and total time sheltered during the three trials over one week. Moreover, the group personality, which arises from the synergy between the distribution of behaviour profiles in the group and social amplifications, affected the sheltering dynamics. However, owing to its robustness, personality did not affect the group probability of reaching a consensus. Finally, to prove social interactions, we developed a new statistical method that will be helpful for future research on personality traits and group behaviour. This approach will help to identify the circumstances under which particular group compositions may improve the fitness of individuals in gregarious species. PMID:25652834

  7. A Markov decision process approach to temporal modulation of dose fractions in radiation therapy planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, M.; Ghate, A.; Phillips, M. H.

    2009-07-01

    The current state of the art in cancer treatment by radiation optimizes beam intensity spatially such that tumors receive high dose radiation whereas damage to nearby healthy tissues is minimized. It is common practice to deliver the radiation over several weeks, where the daily dose is a small constant fraction of the total planned. Such a 'fractionation schedule' is based on traditional models of radiobiological response where normal tissue cells possess the ability to repair sublethal damage done by radiation. This capability is significantly less prominent in tumors. Recent advances in quantitative functional imaging and biological markers are providing new opportunities to measure patient response to radiation over the treatment course. This opens the door for designing fractionation schedules that take into account the patient's cumulative response to radiation up to a particular treatment day in determining the fraction on that day. We propose a novel approach that, for the first time, mathematically explores the benefits of such fractionation schemes. This is achieved by building a stylistic Markov decision process (MDP) model, which incorporates some key features of the problem through intuitive choices of state and action spaces, as well as transition probability and reward functions. The structure of optimal policies for this MDP model is explored through several simple numerical examples.

  8. Research and collaboration overview of Institut Pasteur International Network: a bibliometric approach toward research funding decisions

    PubMed Central

    Mostafavi, Ehsan; Bazrafshan, Azam

    2014-01-01

    Background: Institut Pasteur International Network (IPIN), which includes 32 research institutes around the world, is a network of research and expertise to fight against infectious diseases. A scientometric approach was applied to describe research and collaboration activities of IPIN. Methods: Publications were identified using a manual search of IPIN member addresses in Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE) between 2006 and 2011. Total publications were then subcategorized by geographic regions. Several scientometric indicators and the H-index were employed to estimate the scientific production of each IPIN member. Subject and geographical overlay maps were also applied to visualize the network activities of the IPIN members. Results: A total number of 12667 publications originated from IPIN members. Each author produced an average number of 2.18 papers and each publication received an average of 13.40 citations. European Pasteur Institutes had the largest amount of publications, authored papers, and H-index values. Biochemistry and molecular biology, microbiology, immunology and infectious diseases were the most important research topics, respectively. Geographic mapping of IPIN publications showed wide international collaboration among IPIN members around the world. Conclusion: IPIN has strong ties with national and international authorities and organizations to investigate the current and future health issues. It is recommended to use scientometric and collaboration indicators as measures of research performance in IPIN future policies and investment decisions. PMID:24596896

  9. [Forgoing treatments: a kind of euthanasia? A scientific approach to the debate about end of life decisions].

    PubMed

    Riccioni, Luigi; Busca, Maria Teresa; Busatta, Lucia; Orsi, Luciano; Gristina, Giuseppe R

    2016-03-01

    In the last decade an extensive debate on the topic of end of life decisions has developed in western countries, obtaining a worldwide media relevance. Philosophers, theologians, legal experts and doctors, focus their attention on the three thorny issues of the topic: forgoing treatments, euthanasia and assisted suicide. A thorough and respectful discussion on these issues should include all stakeholders - above all palliative care physicians - and should be encouraged in order to understand the views in favor or against the three practices, checking the different moral positions, and analyzing the cultural, social and legal aspects in the background on one hand, and, on the other, their impact on the health care systems. At present, in the fields of communications and politics, the debate related to the topic of these end of life practices is characterized by a confusion of terms and meanings. As an outcome, the term "euthanasia" is misused as a "container" including forgoing treatments, euthanasia and assisted suicide, while palliative sedation is wrongly considered as a procedure to cause death. This confusing approach does not permit to understand the real issues at the stake, keeping the debate at the tabloid level. Conversely, sharing the precise meaning of the words is the only way to provide tools to make rational, autonomous and responsible decisions, allowing individual informed choices in compliance with the principle of autonomy. This article is not aimed to take a moral stand in favor or against forgoing treatments, euthanasia and assisted suicide. Through an analysis based on scientific criteria, the authors firstly review the definitions of these three practices, examining the concepts enclosed in each term; secondly, they offer a glance on the legal approach to end of life issues in western countries; lastly, they investigate the relationship between these practices and palliative care culture in light of the medical societies official statements

  10. Prediction model based on decision tree analysis for laccase mediators.

    PubMed

    Medina, Fabiola; Aguila, Sergio; Baratto, Maria Camilla; Martorana, Andrea; Basosi, Riccardo; Alderete, Joel B; Vazquez-Duhalt, Rafael

    2013-01-10

    A Structure Activity Relationship (SAR) study for laccase mediator systems was performed in order to correctly classify different natural phenolic mediators. Decision tree (DT) classification models with a set of five quantum-chemical calculated molecular descriptors were used. These descriptors included redox potential (ɛ°), ionization energy (E(i)), pK(a), enthalpy of formation of radical (Δ(f)H), and OH bond dissociation energy (D(O-H)). The rationale for selecting these descriptors is derived from the laccase-mediator mechanism. To validate the DT predictions, the kinetic constants of different compounds as laccase substrates, their ability for pesticide transformation as laccase-mediators, and radical stability were experimentally determined using Coriolopsis gallica laccase and the pesticide dichlorophen. The prediction capability of the DT model based on three proposed descriptors showed a complete agreement with the obtained experimental results. PMID:23199741

  11. Women's Values and Preferences for Thromboprophylaxis during Pregnancy: A Comparison of Direct-choice and Decision Analysis using Patient Specific Utilities

    PubMed Central

    Eckman, Mark H.; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Guyatt, Gordon H.; Ebrahim, Shanil; Tikkinen, Kari A.O.; Lopes, Luciane Cruz; Neumann, Ignacio; McDonald, Sarah D.; Zhang, Yuqing; Zhou, Qi; Akl, Elie A.; Jacobsen, Ann Flem; Santamaría, Amparo; Annichino-Bizzacchi, Joyce Maria; Bitar, Wael; Sandset, Per Morten; Bates, Shannon M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Women with a history of venous thromboembolism (VTE) have an increased recurrence risk during pregnancy. Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) reduces this risk, but is costly, burdensome, and may increase risk of bleeding. The decision to start thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy is sensitive to women's values and preferences. Our objective was to compare women's choices using a holistic approach in which they were presented all of the relevant information (direct-choice) versus a personalized decision analysis in which a mathematical model incorporated their preferences and VTE risk to make a treatment recommendation. Methods Multicenter, international study. Structured interviews were on women with a history of VTE who were pregnant, planning, or considering pregnancy. Women indicated their willingness to receive thromboprophylaxis based on scenarios using personalized estimates of VTE recurrence and bleeding risks. We also obtained women's values for health outcomes using a visual analog scale. We performed individualized decision analyses for each participant and compared model recommendations to decisions made when presented with the direct-choice exercise. Results Of the 123 women in the study, the decision model recommended LMWH for 51 women and recommended against LMWH for 72 women. 12% (6/51) of women for whom the decision model recommended thromboprophylaxis chose not to take LMWH; 72% (52/72) of women for whom the decision model recommended against thromboprophylaxis chose LMWH. Conclusions We observed a high degree of discordance between decisions in the direct-choice exercise and decision model recommendations. Although which approach best captures individuals’ true values remains uncertain, personalized decision support tools presenting results based on personalized risks and values may improve decision making. PMID:26033397

  12. A Self-Instructional Approach to Environmental Decision Making: Focus on Land Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haakonsen, Harry O.; And Others

    1977-01-01

    The Land Use Decision Making Kit (LUK), an audio-tutorial program, is described. Topics detailed include: kit construction, design, orientation, organization, accessing information, packaging, and distribution. (BT)

  13. A meta-analysis of blood glucose effects on human decision making.

    PubMed

    Orquin, Jacob L; Kurzban, Robert

    2016-05-01

    The academic and public interest in blood glucose and its relationship to decision making has been increasing over the last decade. To investigate and evaluate competing theories about this relationship, we conducted a psychometric meta-analysis on the effect of blood glucose on decision making. We identified 42 studies relating to 4 dimensions of decision making: willingness to pay, willingness to work, time discounting, and decision style. We did not find a uniform influence of blood glucose on decision making. Instead, we found that low levels of blood glucose increase the willingness to pay and willingness to work when a situation is food related, but decrease willingness to pay and work in all other situations. Low levels of blood glucose increase the future discount rate for food; that is, decision makers become more impatient, and to a lesser extent increase the future discount rate for money. Low levels of blood glucose also increase the tendency to make more intuitive rather than deliberate decisions. However, this effect was only observed in situations unrelated to food. We conclude that blood glucose has domain-specific effects, influencing decision making differently depending on the relevance of the situation to acquiring food. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26653865

  14. Yield threshold decision framework

    SciTech Connect

    Judd, B.R.; Younker, L.W.; Hannon, W.J.

    1989-08-17

    The USA is developing a decision analysis framework for evaluating the relative value of lower yield thresholds and related verification policies. The framework facilitates systematic analysis of the major issues in the yield threshold decision. The framework can be used to evaluate options proposed either in the inter-agency process or in the negotiations. In addition, the framework can measure the importance of uncertainties and alternative judgments, and thereby determine the advantages of additional research. Since the model is explicit and quantitative, it provides a rational, defensible approach for reaching important treaty and verification decisions. 9 figs.

  15. Heterogeneous Factor Analysis Models: A Bayesian Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ansari, Asim; Jedidi, Kamel; Dube, Laurette

    2002-01-01

    Developed Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures to perform Bayesian inference, model checking, and model comparison in heterogeneous factor analysis. Tested the approach with synthetic data and data from a consumption emotion study involving 54 consumers. Results show that traditional psychometric methods cannot fully capture the heterogeneity in…

  16. A Mellin transform approach to wavelet analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alotta, Gioacchino; Di Paola, Mario; Failla, Giuseppe

    2015-11-01

    The paper proposes a fractional calculus approach to continuous wavelet analysis. Upon introducing a Mellin transform expression of the mother wavelet, it is shown that the wavelet transform of an arbitrary function f(t) can be given a fractional representation involving a suitable number of Riesz integrals of f(t), and corresponding fractional moments of the mother wavelet. This result serves as a basis for an original approach to wavelet analysis of linear systems under arbitrary excitations. In particular, using the proposed fractional representation for the wavelet transform of the excitation, it is found that the wavelet transform of the response can readily be computed by a Mellin transform expression, with fractional moments obtained from a set of algebraic equations whose coefficient matrix applies for any scale a of the wavelet transform. Robustness and computationally efficiency of the proposed approach are shown in the paper.

  17. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

  18. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    PubMed

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  19. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  20. Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

    PubMed

    Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

    2015-03-01

    The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations. PMID:25479999

  1. Mission Planning and Decision Support for Underwater Glider Networks: A Sampling on-Demand Approach.

    PubMed

    Ferri, Gabriele; Cococcioni, Marco; Alvarez, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an optimal sampling approach to support glider fleet operators and marine scientists during the complex task of planning the missions of fleets of underwater gliders. Optimal sampling, which has gained considerable attention in the last decade, consists in planning the paths of gliders to minimize a specific criterion pertinent to the phenomenon under investigation. Different criteria (e.g., A, G, or E optimality), used in geosciences to obtain an optimum design, lead to different sampling strategies. In particular, the A criterion produces paths for the gliders that minimize the overall level of uncertainty over the area of interest. However, there are commonly operative situations in which the marine scientists may prefer not to minimize the overall uncertainty of a certain area, but instead they may be interested in achieving an acceptable uncertainty sufficient for the scientific or operational needs of the mission. We propose and discuss here an approach named sampling on-demand that explicitly addresses this need. In our approach the user provides an objective map, setting both the amount and the geographic distribution of the uncertainty to be achieved after assimilating the information gathered by the fleet. A novel optimality criterion, called A η , is proposed and the resulting minimization problem is solved by using a Simulated Annealing based optimizer that takes into account the constraints imposed by the glider navigation features, the desired geometry of the paths and the problems of reachability caused by ocean currents. This planning strategy has been implemented in a Matlab toolbox called SoDDS (Sampling on-Demand and Decision Support). The tool is able to automatically download the ocean fields data from MyOcean repository and also provides graphical user interfaces to ease the input process of mission parameters and targets. The results obtained by running SoDDS on three different scenarios are provided and show that So

  2. Mission Planning and Decision Support for Underwater Glider Networks: A Sampling on-Demand Approach

    PubMed Central

    Ferri, Gabriele; Cococcioni, Marco; Alvarez, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an optimal sampling approach to support glider fleet operators and marine scientists during the complex task of planning the missions of fleets of underwater gliders. Optimal sampling, which has gained considerable attention in the last decade, consists in planning the paths of gliders to minimize a specific criterion pertinent to the phenomenon under investigation. Different criteria (e.g., A, G, or E optimality), used in geosciences to obtain an optimum design, lead to different sampling strategies. In particular, the A criterion produces paths for the gliders that minimize the overall level of uncertainty over the area of interest. However, there are commonly operative situations in which the marine scientists may prefer not to minimize the overall uncertainty of a certain area, but instead they may be interested in achieving an acceptable uncertainty sufficient for the scientific or operational needs of the mission. We propose and discuss here an approach named sampling on-demand that explicitly addresses this need. In our approach the user provides an objective map, setting both the amount and the geographic distribution of the uncertainty to be achieved after assimilating the information gathered by the fleet. A novel optimality criterion, called Aη, is proposed and the resulting minimization problem is solved by using a Simulated Annealing based optimizer that takes into account the constraints imposed by the glider navigation features, the desired geometry of the paths and the problems of reachability caused by ocean currents. This planning strategy has been implemented in a Matlab toolbox called SoDDS (Sampling on-Demand and Decision Support). The tool is able to automatically download the ocean fields data from MyOcean repository and also provides graphical user interfaces to ease the input process of mission parameters and targets. The results obtained by running SoDDS on three different scenarios are provided and show that So

  3. Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    Akar, S.; Young, K. R.

    2015-05-11

    This poster describes the findings in a related paper and information gleaned from the project. The aim of the project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal decision making, including more solid go/no-go decisions at specific points in the process, and to reduce subjectivity and increase reproducibility in the future.

  4. Teaching a Rational Approach to Career Decision Making: Who Benefits Most?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krumboltz, John D.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Rational, intuitive, fatalistic, and dependent decision makers were compared on how much they learned from a rational decision-making training intervention. Individuals who had been highly impulsive, dependent, or fatalistic in prior course selections and those who exhibited dependency in prior job choices appeared to learn most from the rational…

  5. School-Based Management: An Approach to Decision-Making Quality in Egyptian General Secondary Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elmelegy, Reda Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    The current research aims at clarifying how school-based management (SBM) can contribute to achieve the decision-making quality in Egyptian general secondary schools and determine the requirements of quality decision-making. It depends on the descriptive method in order to acknowledge the basics of the SBM and its relationship with the quality of…

  6. Sexuality Education: Building an Evidence- and Rights-Based Approach to Healthy Decision-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bridges, Emily; Hauser, Debra

    2014-01-01

    As they grow up, young people face important decisions about relationships, sexuality, and sexual behavior. The decisions they make can impact their health and well-being for the rest of their lives. Young people have the right to lead healthy lives, and society has the responsibility to prepare youth by providing them with comprehensive sexual…

  7. Systemic Data-Based Decision Making: A Systems Approach for Using Data in Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walser, Tamara M.

    2009-01-01

    No Child Left Behind has increased data collection and reporting, the development of data systems, and interest in using data for decision-making in schools and classrooms. Ends-driven decision making has become common educational practice, where the ends justify the means at all costs, and short-term results trump longer-term outcomes and the…

  8. Counterfactual Thinking and Ethical Decision Making: A New Approach to an Old Problem for Marketing Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Celuch, Kevin; Saxby, Carl

    2013-01-01

    The present study extends understanding of the self-regulatory aspects of ethical decision making by integrating and exploring relationships among counterfactual thinking, attribution, anticipatory emotions, and ethical decision-making constructs and processes. Specifically, we examine the effects of a manipulation designed to stimulate a…

  9. Due Process and Higher Education: A Systemic Approach to Fair Decision Making. ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stevens, Ed

    University officials and faculty are frequently required to make decisions based on interpretations of disputed facts. By applying the concept of due process within the context of higher education, they can meet legal challenges of contract and constitutional law and the pedagogical demand for justice. To guide their efforts, decision makers can…

  10. Decision Making Correlates of Depressive Symptoms among African-American Adolescents: Implications for Prevention Approaches.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okwumabua, Jebose O.; Duryea, Elias J.; Wong, S. P.

    2002-01-01

    Examined the relationship between depressive symptoms and decision making among a non-clinical sample of low-income African American adolescents. Data from the Children's Depression Inventory and Flinders Adolescent Decision Making Questionnaire indicated that there was a significant correlation between adolescents' self-reported depressive…

  11. Decision-Making Competence in Biology Education: Implementation into German Curricula in Relation to International Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steffen, Benjamin; Hößle, Corinna

    2014-01-01

    The integration of decision-making competence or comparable constructs into science education has been strongly enforced during the last twenty years. Germany captured the tendency with the introduction of national standards for science education that included a domain that refers to decision-making competence. This domain--"evaluation and…

  12. Operative Versus Nonoperative Treatment of Jones Fractures: A Decision Analysis Model.

    PubMed

    Bishop, Julius A; Braun, Hillary J; Hunt, Kenneth J

    2016-01-01

    Optimal management of metadiaphyseal fifth metatarsal fractures (Jones fractures) remains controversial. Decision analysis can optimize clinical decision-making based on available evidence and patient preferences. We conducted a study to establish the determinants of decision-making and to determine the optimal treatment strategy for Jones fractures using a decision analysis model. Probabilities for potential outcomes of operative and nonoperative treatment of Jones fractures were determined from a review of the literature. Patient preferences for outcomes were obtained by questionnaire completed by 32 healthy adults with no history of foot fracture. Derived values were used in the model as a measure of utility. A decision tree was constructed, and fold-back and sensitivity analyses were performed to determine optimal treatment. Nonoperative treatment was associated with a value of 7.74, and operative treatment with an intramedullary screw was associated with a value of 7.88 given the outcome probabilities and utilities studied, making operative treatment the optimal strategy. When parameters were varied, nonoperative treatment was favored when the likelihood of healing with nonoperative treatment rose above 82% and when the probability of healing after surgery fell below 92%. In this decision analysis model, operative fixation is the preferred management strategy for Jones fractures. PMID:26991586

  13. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    PubMed

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. PMID:26734840

  14. Environmental and economic impacts of decision-making at an arable farm: an integrative modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Lindgren, Urban; Elmquist, Helena

    2005-06-01

    This study examines the dependency between physical and anthropogenic systems in arable farming. The dynamic simulation model, which has its methodological origins in the modeling traditions of environmental systems analysis and microsimulation, reproduces the mutual links between the physical flows (e.g. energy, materials, emissions, and products), the farmer as a decision-making agent, and structural conditions influencing the farm. In running the model, the intention is to answer the question: What are the impacts on profitability and the environment (i.e. greenhouse gas effects, eutrophication, acidification, and energy use) of variations in prices, subsidies, the farmer's environmental values, and the farmer's skill in making production allocation choices? The results of the model simulations indicate, for example, that in terms of economic performance, a farmer can choose between two relatively sustainable strategies--either to specialize in organic production (thereby benefiting from higher subsidies and output prices), or to focus on conventional cultivation and use of pesticides and fertilizers (thereby benefiting from large yields). Regarding environmental impacts, there was no clear-cut divide between organic and conventional farming due to difficulties in allocating the use of manure. This finding is essentially related to the choice of system boundary, which is thoroughly discussed in the paper. PMID:16092275

  15. Integrated Evaluation of Urban Water Bodies for Pollution Abatement Based on Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Approach.

    PubMed

    Hashim, Sarfraz; Yuebo, Xie; Saifullah, Muhammad; Nabi Jan, Ramila; Muhetaer, Adila

    2015-01-01

    Today's ecology is erected with miscellaneous framework. However, numerous sources deteriorate it, such as urban rivers that directly cause the environmental pollution. For chemical pollution abatement from urban water bodies, many techniques were introduced to rehabilitate the water quality of these water bodies. In this research, Bacterial Technology (BT) was applied to urban rivers escalating the necessity to control the water pollution in different places (Xuxi River (XXU); Gankeng River (GKS); Xia Zhang River (XZY); Fenghu and Song Yang Rivers (FSR); Jiu Haogang River (JHH)) in China. For data analysis, the physiochemical parameters such as temperature, chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3N) were determined before and after the treatment. Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) method was used for relative significance of different water quality on each station, based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). The overall results revealed that the pollution is exceeding at "JHH" due to the limit of "COD" as critical water quality parameter and after treatment, an abrupt recovery of the rivers compared with the average improved efficiency of nutrients was 79%, 74%, 68%, and 70% of COD, DO, TP, and NH3N, respectively. The color of the river's water changed to its original form and aquatic living organism appeared with clear effluents from them. PMID:26516623

  16. Integrated Evaluation of Urban Water Bodies for Pollution Abatement Based on Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Approach

    PubMed Central

    Hashim, Sarfraz; Yuebo, Xie; Saifullah, Muhammad; Nabi Jan, Ramila; Muhetaer, Adila

    2015-01-01

    Today's ecology is erected with miscellaneous framework. However, numerous sources deteriorate it, such as urban rivers that directly cause the environmental pollution. For chemical pollution abatement from urban water bodies, many techniques were introduced to rehabilitate the water quality of these water bodies. In this research, Bacterial Technology (BT) was applied to urban rivers escalating the necessity to control the water pollution in different places (Xuxi River (XXU); Gankeng River (GKS); Xia Zhang River (XZY); Fenghu and Song Yang Rivers (FSR); Jiu Haogang River (JHH)) in China. For data analysis, the physiochemical parameters such as temperature, chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3N) were determined before and after the treatment. Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) method was used for relative significance of different water quality on each station, based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). The overall results revealed that the pollution is exceeding at “JHH” due to the limit of “COD” as critical water quality parameter and after treatment, an abrupt recovery of the rivers compared with the average improved efficiency of nutrients was 79%, 74%, 68%, and 70% of COD, DO, TP, and NH3N, respectively. The color of the river's water changed to its original form and aquatic living organism appeared with clear effluents from them. PMID:26516623

  17. Multivariate analysis: A statistical approach for computations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michu, Sachin; Kaushik, Vandana

    2014-10-01

    Multivariate analysis is a type of multivariate statistical approach commonly used in, automotive diagnosis, education evaluating clusters in finance etc and more recently in the health-related professions. The objective of the paper is to provide a detailed exploratory discussion about factor analysis (FA) in image retrieval method and correlation analysis (CA) of network traffic. Image retrieval methods aim to retrieve relevant images from a collected database, based on their content. The problem is made more difficult due to the high dimension of the variable space in which the images are represented. Multivariate correlation analysis proposes an anomaly detection and analysis method based on the correlation coefficient matrix. Anomaly behaviors in the network include the various attacks on the network like DDOs attacks and network scanning.

  18. Realtime Decision Making on EO-1 Using Onboard Science Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sherwood, Robert; Chien, Steve; Davies, Ashley; Mandl, Dan; Frye, Stu

    2004-01-01

    Recent autonomy experiments conducted on Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) using the Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE) flight software has been used to classify key features in hyperspectral images captured by EO-1. Furthermore, analysis is performed by this software onboard EO-1 and then used to modify the operational plan without interaction from the ground. This paper will outline the overall operations concept and provide some details and examples of the onboard science processing, science analysis, and replanning.

  19. Research-based-decision-making in Canadian health organizations: a behavioural approach.

    PubMed

    Jbilou, Jalila; Amara, Nabil; Landry, Réjean

    2007-06-01

    Decision making in Health sector is affected by a several elements such as economic constraints, political agendas, epidemiologic events, managers' values and environment... These competing elements create a complex environment for decision making. Research-Based-Decision-Making (RBDM) offers an opportunity to reduce the generated uncertainty and to ensure efficacy and efficiency in health administrations. We assume that RBDM is dependant on decision makers' behaviour and the identification of the determinants of this behaviour can help to enhance research results utilization in health sector decision making. This paper explores the determinants of RBDM as a personal behaviour among managers and professionals in health administrations in Canada. From the behavioural theories and the existing literature, we build a model measuring "RBDM" as an index based on five items. These items refer to the steps accomplished by a decision maker while developing a decision which is based on evidence. The determinants of RBDM behaviour are identified using data collected from 942 health care decision makers in Canadian health organizations. Linear regression is used to model the behaviour RBDM. Determinants of this behaviour are derived from Triandis Theory and Bandura's construct "self-efficacy." The results suggest that to improve research use among managers in Canadian governmental health organizations, strategies should focus on enhancing exposition to evidence through facilitating communication networks, partnerships and links between researchers and decision makers, with the key long-term objective of developing a culture that supports and values the contribution that research can make to decision making in governmental health organizations. Nevertheless, depending on the organizational level, determinants of RBDM are different. This difference has to be taken into account if RBDM adoption is desired. Decision makers in Canadian health organizations (CHO) can help to build

  20. Modeling approaches for characterizing and evaluating environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials in support of risk-based decision making.

    PubMed

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Michael; Grieger, Khara D; Money, Eric S; Johnston, John M; Wiesner, Mark R; Beaulieu, Stephen M

    2013-02-01

    As the use of engineered nanomaterials becomes more prevalent, the likelihood of unintended exposure to these materials also increases. Given the current scarcity of experimental data regarding fate, transport, and bioavailability, determining potential environmental exposure to these materials requires an in depth analysis of modeling techniques that can be used in both the near- and long-term. Here, we provide a critical review of traditional and emerging exposure modeling approaches to highlight the challenges that scientists and decision-makers face when developing environmental exposure and risk assessments for nanomaterials. We find that accounting for nanospecific properties, overcoming data gaps, realizing model limitations, and handling uncertainty are key to developing informative and reliable environmental exposure and risk assessments for engineered nanomaterials. We find methods suited to recognizing and addressing significant uncertainty to be most appropriate for near-term environmental exposure modeling, given the current state of information and the current insufficiency of established deterministic models to address environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials. PMID:23293982

  1. Disease transmission models for public health decision making: analysis of epidemic and endemic conditions caused by waterborne pathogens.

    PubMed Central

    Eisenberg, Joseph N S; Brookhart, M Alan; Rice, Glenn; Brown, Mary; Colford, John M

    2002-01-01

    Developing effective policy for environmental health issues requires integrating large collections of information that are diverse, highly variable, and uncertain. Despite these uncertainties in the science, decisions must be made. These decisions often have been based on risk assessment. We argue that two important features of risk assessment are to identify research needs and to provide information for decision making. One type of information that a model can provide is the sensitivity of making one decision over another on factors that drive public health risk. To achieve this goal, a risk assessment framework must be based on a description of the exposure and disease processes. Regarding exposure to waterborne pathogens, the appropriate framework is one that explicitly models the disease transmission pathways of pathogens. This approach provides a crucial link between science and policy. Two studies--a Giardia risk assessment case study and an analysis of the 1993 Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Cryptosporidium outbreak--illustrate the role that models can play in policy making. PMID:12153759

  2. Utilizing home health care electronic health records for telehomecare patients with heart failure: a decision tree approach to detect associations with rehospitalizations

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Youjeong; McHugh, Matthew D; Chittams, Jesse; Bowles, Kathryn H.

    2016-01-01

    Heart failure is a complex condition with a significant impact on patients’ lives. A few studies have identified risk factors associated with rehospitalization among telehomecare patients with heart failure using logistic regression or survival analysis models. To date there are no published studies that have used data mining techniques to detect associations with rehospitalizations among telehomecare patients with heart failure. This study is a secondary analysis of the home health care electronic medical record called the Outcome Assessment and Information Set (OASIS)-C for 552 telemonitored heart failure patients. Bivariate analyses using SAS™ and a decision tree technique using Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis were used. From the decision tree technique, the presence of skin issue(s) was identified as the top predictor of rehospitalization that could be identified during the start of care assessment, followed by patient’s living situation, patient’s overall health status, severe pain experiences, frequency of activity-limiting pain, and total number of anticipated therapy visits coombined. Examining risk factors for rehospitalization from the OASIS-C database using a decision tree approach among a cohort of telehomecare patients provided a broad understanding of the characteristics of patients who are appropriate for the use of telehomcare or who need additional supports. PMID:26848645

  3. Hiring Decisions: An Analysis of Columbus Employer Assessments of Youthful Job Applicants. Executive Summary.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hollenbeck, Kevin

    This study was conducted to describe and to analyze how employers respond to information presented to them on application forms and in interviews when they make hiring decisions for entry-level jobs. The approach of the study was to observe the responses of 56 employers in the Columbus, Ohio, area to simulated hiring settings concerning youthful…

  4. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. PMID:21608109

  5. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  6. Four Common Simplifications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis do not hold for River Rehabilitation

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    River rehabilitation aims at alleviating negative effects of human impacts such as loss of biodiversity and reduction of ecosystem services. Such interventions entail difficult trade-offs between different ecological and often socio-economic objectives. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a very suitable approach that helps assessing the current ecological state and prioritizing river rehabilitation measures in a standardized way, based on stakeholder or expert preferences. Applications of MCDA in river rehabilitation projects are often simplified, i.e. using a limited number of objectives and indicators, assuming linear value functions, aggregating individual indicator assessments additively, and/or assuming risk neutrality of experts. Here, we demonstrate an implementation of MCDA expert preference assessments to river rehabilitation and provide ample material for other applications. To test whether the above simplifications reflect common expert opinion, we carried out very detailed interviews with five river ecologists and a hydraulic engineer. We defined essential objectives and measurable quality indicators (attributes), elicited the experts´ preferences for objectives on a standardized scale (value functions) and their risk attitude, and identified suitable aggregation methods. The experts recommended an extensive objectives hierarchy including between 54 and 93 essential objectives and between 37 to 61 essential attributes. For 81% of these, they defined non-linear value functions and in 76% recommended multiplicative aggregation. The experts were risk averse or risk prone (but never risk neutral), depending on the current ecological state of the river, and the experts´ personal importance of objectives. We conclude that the four commonly applied simplifications clearly do not reflect the opinion of river rehabilitation experts. The optimal level of model complexity, however, remains highly case-study specific depending on data and resource

  7. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  8. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: an item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI)

    PubMed Central

    Parker, Andrew M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2015-01-01

    Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy) to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn). The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision-making. PMID:25904876

  9. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: an item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI).

    PubMed

    Parker, Andrew M; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2015-01-01

    Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy) to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn). The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision-making. PMID:25904876

  10. Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in regulatory alternatives analysis: a case study of lead free solder.

    PubMed

    Malloy, Timothy F; Sinsheimer, Peter J; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    Regulators are implementing new programs that require manufacturers of products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify, evaluate, and adopt viable, safer alternatives. Such programs raise the difficult question for policymakers and regulated businesses of which alternatives are "viable" and "safer." To address that question, these programs use "alternatives analysis," an emerging methodology that integrates issues of human health and environmental effects with technical feasibility and economic impact. Despite the central role that alternatives analysis plays in these programs, the methodology itself is neither well-developed nor tailored to application in regulatory settings. This study uses the case of Pb-based bar solder and its non-Pb-based alternatives to examine the application of 2 multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to alternatives analysis: multi-attribute utility analysis and outranking. The article develops and evaluates an alternatives analysis methodology and supporting decision-analysis software for use in a regulatory context, using weighting of the relevant decision criteria generated from a stakeholder elicitation process. The analysis produced complete rankings of the alternatives, including identification of the relative contribution to the ranking of each of the highest level decision criteria such as human health impacts, technical feasibility, and economic feasibility. It also examined the effect of variation in data conventions, weighting, and decision frameworks on the outcome. The results indicate that MCDA can play a critical role in emerging prevention-based regulatory programs. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods offer a means for transparent, objective, and rigorous analysis of products and processes, providing regulators and stakeholders with a common baseline understanding of the relative performance of alternatives and the trade-offs they present. PMID:23703936

  11. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lo, Benjamin W. Y.; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R. Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods: The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Results: Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56–2.45, P < 0.01). Conclusions: A clinically useful classification tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH. PMID:27512607

  12. INTEGRATED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TO SUPPORT EFFECTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION-MAKING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The expected results of this research are to 1) contribute to our understanding of dominant uncertainties in models typically used across many RIAs, 2) identify integrated uncertainty analysis strategies that the EPA and other regulatory agencies can use to evaluate overall un...

  13. CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION INFORMATION SYSTEM (CADDIS) WORKSHOP 2002

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increasingly, the regulatory, remedial and restoration actions taken to manage impaired environments are based on measurement and analysis of the state of the biotic community. When an aquatic community has been identified as impaired, the cause of the impairment must be determi...

  14. Shaping the Conversation: A Secondary Analysis of Reproductive Decision-Making Among Black Mothers with HIV.

    PubMed

    Amutah, Ndidiamaka N; Gifuni, Jacqueline; Wesley, Yvonne

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative secondary data analysis is to examine the major influencers on mothers with HIV in their childbearing decisions, as well as how those influencers shape conversations with clinicians and health-care providers regarding HIV treatment and prevention. The original study gained insight into the reproductive decision-making of mothers with HIV. By analyzing a subsample of 15 interviews from an original cohort of 25 participants in the earlier study, three major themes were identified as follows: (1) family members, not health-care providers, influence reproductive decisions; (2) negative attitudes toward subsequent pregnancies are mainly due to HIV transmission; and (3) birth control decisions were predominately supported by family members, while health-care providers were not consulted. PMID:27158227

  15. Shaping the Conversation: A Secondary Analysis of Reproductive Decision-Making Among Black Mothers with HIV

    PubMed Central

    Amutah, Ndidiamaka N.; Gifuni, Jacqueline; Wesley, Yvonne

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative secondary data analysis is to examine the major influencers on mothers with HIV in their childbearing decisions, as well as how those influencers shape conversations with clinicians and health-care providers regarding HIV treatment and prevention. The original study gained insight into the reproductive decision-making of mothers with HIV. By analyzing a subsample of 15 interviews from an original cohort of 25 participants in the earlier study, three major themes were identified as follows: (1) family members, not health-care providers, influence reproductive decisions; (2) negative attitudes toward subsequent pregnancies are mainly due to HIV transmission; and (3) birth control decisions were predominately supported by family members, while health-care providers were not consulted. PMID:27158227

  16. Return or relocate? An inductive analysis of decision-making in a disaster.

    PubMed

    Henry, Jacques

    2013-04-01

    This paper proposes an inductive analysis of the decision as to whether to return or to relocate by persons in the State of Louisiana, United States, who evacuated after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September 2005, respectively. Drawing on interviews with evacuees in these events and extensive fieldwork in the impacted area, the paper seeks to identify the folk dimensions of the decision-making process, assess their arrangements, and situate the process in the larger context of risk and resilience in an advanced society. It suggests that, despite the material and emotional upheaval experienced by affected persons, the decision-making process is a rational endeavour combining a definite set of tightly interconnected factors, involving material dimensions and substantive values that can act in concert or in conflict. In addition, it indicates that there are significant variations by geographic areas, homeownership, and kind of decision. Some theoretical implications, practical measures, and suggestions for future research are examined. PMID:23278427

  17. Applying Decision-Making Approaches to Health Risk-Taking Behaviors: Progress and Remaining Challenges.

    PubMed

    Cho; Keller; Cooper

    1999-06-01

    This paper critically examines how risk-taking behaviors can be modeled from a decision-making perspective. We first review several applications of a decision perspective to the study of risk-taking behaviors, including studies that investigate consequence generation and the components of the overall utility (i.e., consequence, desirability, and likelihood) of risk-taking and studies that investigate the validity of two decision-oriented models (subjective expected utility and the theory of reasoned action) in predicting risk-taking behaviors. We then discuss challenges in modeling risk-taking behaviors from a decision-making perspective. These challenges include (i) finding the factors that are necessary to improve the predictability of models, (ii) difficulties in eliciting the individual components of overall utility, and (iii) incorporating overall utility changes over time. Copyright 1999 Academic Press. PMID:10366518

  18. Fuzzy inference game approach to uncertainty in business decisions and market competitions.

    PubMed

    Oderanti, Festus Oluseyi

    2013-01-01

    The increasing challenges and complexity of business environments are making business decisions and operations more difficult for entrepreneurs to predict the outcomes of these processes. Therefore, we developed a decision support scheme that could be used and adapted to various business decision processes. These involve decisions that are made under uncertain situations such as business competition in the market or wage negotiation within a firm. The scheme uses game strategies and fuzzy inference concepts to effectively grasp the variables in these uncertain situations. The games are played between human and fuzzy players. The accuracy of the fuzzy rule base and the game strategies help to mitigate the adverse effects that a business may suffer from these uncertain factors. We also introduced learning which enables the fuzzy player to adapt over time. We tested this scheme in different scenarios and discover that it could be an invaluable tool in the hand of entrepreneurs that are operating under uncertain and competitive business environments. PMID:24109562

  19. A Fourth-Generation Approach to Decision Support in a Private University.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glover, Robert H.

    1985-01-01

    Contrasts are made between application development strategies employed for online transaction processing and for decision support at the University of Hartford. Applications designed and implemented are described and current developments in the plan are discussed. (Author/MLW)

  20. A Model For Change: An Approach for Forecasting Well-Being From Service-Based Decisions

    EPA Science Inventory

    Every community decision incorporates a "forecasting" strategy (whether formal or implicit) to help visualize expected results and evaluate the potential “feelings” that people living in that community may have about those results. With more communities seek...