Science.gov

Sample records for decision analysis approach

  1. Lunar mission architecture evaluation using a decision analysis approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gleave, Janet

    1990-01-01

    President Bush's call for a return to the Moon, followed by the human exploration of Mars, has spawned numerous ideas for implementing what has been called the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). Because a return to the Moon has been designated as the first step of SEI, the time is rapidly approaching to select one of the many mission architectures proposed for the exploration, settlement, and exploitation of the Moon. The evaluation of alternative archictures, and the subsequent selection of the 'best' alternative will be critical to the success of this, and other, space programs. The following presentation discusses the application of systems analysis to the evaluation and selection of a Lunar outpost mission architecture. The role of a decision model in the evaluation/selection process is discussed, and different types of decision models are presented. These models are analyzed and discussed in terms of their applicability to the selection of a Lunar outpost mission architecture.

  2. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more

  3. An Entropy Approach for Utility Assignment in Decision Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbas, Ali E.

    2003-03-01

    A fundamental step in decision analysis is the elicitation of the decision-maker's preferences about the prospects of a decision situation in the form of utility values. However, this can be a difficult task to perform in practice as the number of prospects may be large, and eliciting a utility value for each prospect may be a time consuming and stressful task for the decision maker. To relieve some of the burden of this task, this paper presents a normative method to assign unbiased utility values when only incomplete preference information is available about the decision maker. We introduce the notion of a utility density function and propose a maximum entropy utility principle for utility assignment.

  4. Decision analysis of polluted sites -- A fuzzy set approach

    SciTech Connect

    Mohamed, A.M.O.; Cote, K.

    1999-07-01

    A decision analysis based model (DAPS 1.0, Decision Analysis of Polluted Sites) has been developed to evaluate risks that polluted sites might pose to human health. Pollutants present in soils and sediments can potentially migrate from source to receptor(s), via different pathways. in the developed model, pathways are simulated via transport models (i.e., groundwater transport model, runoff-erosion model, air diffusion model, and sediment diffusion, and resuspension model in water bodies). Humans can be affected by pollutant migration through land and water use. health risks can arise from ingestion of and dermal contact with polluted water and soil, as well as through inhalation of polluted air. Quantitative estimates of risks are calculated for both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic pollutants. Being very heterogeneous, soil and sediment systems are characterized by uncertain parameters. Concepts of fuzzy set theory have been adopted to account for uncertainty in the input parameters which are represented by fuzzy numbers. An inference model using fuzzy logic has been constructed for reasoning in the decision analysis.

  5. A review and classification of approaches for dealing with uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare decisions.

    PubMed

    Broekhuizen, Henk; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina G M; van Til, Janine A; Hummel, J Marjan; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2015-05-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support decisions in healthcare involving multiple and conflicting criteria. Although uncertainty is usually carefully addressed in health economic evaluations, whether and how the different sources of uncertainty are dealt with and with what methods in MCDA is less known. The objective of this study is to review how uncertainty can be explicitly taken into account in MCDA and to discuss which approach may be appropriate for healthcare decision makers. A literature review was conducted in the Scopus and PubMed databases. Two reviewers independently categorized studies according to research areas, the type of MCDA used, and the approach used to quantify uncertainty. Selected full text articles were read for methodological details. The search strategy identified 569 studies. The five approaches most identified were fuzzy set theory (45% of studies), probabilistic sensitivity analysis (15%), deterministic sensitivity analysis (31%), Bayesian framework (6%), and grey theory (3%). A large number of papers considered the analytic hierarchy process in combination with fuzzy set theory (31%). Only 3% of studies were published in healthcare-related journals. In conclusion, our review identified five different approaches to take uncertainty into account in MCDA. The deterministic approach is most likely sufficient for most healthcare policy decisions because of its low complexity and straightforward implementation. However, more complex approaches may be needed when multiple sources of uncertainty must be considered simultaneously. PMID:25630758

  6. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  7. The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P.

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders’ opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project’s home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/ .

  8. The decision analysis interview approach in the collaborative management of a large regulated water course.

    PubMed

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders' opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project's home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/. PMID:18830741

  9. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    SciTech Connect

    Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M.; Yerace, P.; Flora, J.; Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D.

    1998-05-01

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy`s West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach.

  10. Shared Decision-Making Models Acknowledging an Interprofessional Approach: A Theory Analysis to Inform Nursing Practice.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Krystina B; Stacey, Dawn; Squires, Janet E; Carroll, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Patient engagement in collaboration with health professionals is essential to deliver quality health care. A shared decision-making (SDM) approach requires that patients are involved in decisions regarding their health. SDM is expanding from the patient-physician dyad to incorporate an interprofessional perspective. Conceptual models can be used to better understand theoretical underpinnings for application in clinical practice. The aim of this article was to conduct a theory analysis of conceptual models using an interprofessional approach to SDM and discuss each model's relevance to nursing practice. Walker and Avant's theory analysis approach was used. Three conceptual models were eligible. For all models, the decision-making process was considered iterative. The development process was described for 1 model. All models were logical, parsimonious, and generalizable. One was supported by empirical testing. No model described how partnerships are enacted to achieve interprofessional SDM. Also, there was limited articulation as to how nurses' roles and contributions differ from other team members. This theory analysis highlights the need for a model that explains how partnerships among interprofessional team members are enacted to better understand the operationalization of interprofessional SDM. Implications for nursing practice at all system levels are offered and supported by the 3 models. PMID:27024998

  11. APPROACH TO LEVEL 2 ANALYSIS BASED ON LEVEL 1 RESULTS, MEG CATEGORIES AND COMPOUNDS, AND DECISION CRITERIA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report describes an approach to the decision criteria needed to proceed from the initial emission screening analysis (Level 1) to the detailed emission characterization (Level 2), and a Level 2 analytical approach. The decision criteria, considering only the available Level 1...

  12. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    PubMed

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk. PMID:19087232

  13. Helping patients make choices about breast reconstruction: A decision analysis approach

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Clement S.; Cantor, Scott B.; Reece, Gregory P.; Fingeret, Michelle C.; Crosby, Melissa A.; Markey, Mia K.

    2014-01-01

    Decision analysis can help breast reconstruction patients and their surgeons to methodically evaluate clinical alternatives and make hard decisions. The purpose of this paper is to help plastic surgeons guide patients in making decisions though a case study in breast reconstruction. By making good decisions, patient outcomes may be improved. This paper aims to illustrate decision analysis techniques from the patient perspective with an emphasis on her values and preferences. We introduce normative decision-making through a fictional breast reconstruction patient and systematically build the decision basis to help her make a good decision. We broadly identify alternatives of breast reconstruction, propose types of outcomes that the patient should consider, discuss sources of probabilistic information and outcome values, and demonstrate how to make a good decision. The concepts presented here may be extended to other shared decision-making problems in plastic and reconstructive surgery. In addition, we discuss how sensitivity analysis may test the robustness of the decision and how to evaluate the quality of decisions. We also present tools to help implement these concepts in practice. Finally, we examine limitations that hamper adoption of patient decision analysis in reconstructive surgery and healthcare in general. In particular, we emphasize the need for routine collection of quality of life information, out-of-pocket expense, and recovery time. PMID:25357022

  14. A decision-theory approach to interpretable set analysis for high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Boca, Simina M; Bravo, Héctor Céorrada; Caffo, Brian; Leek, Jeffrey T; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2013-09-01

    A key problem in high-dimensional significance analysis is to find pre-defined sets that show enrichment for a statistical signal of interest; the classic example is the enrichment of gene sets for differentially expressed genes. Here, we propose a new decision-theory approach to the analysis of gene sets which focuses on estimating the fraction of non-null variables in a set. We introduce the idea of "atoms," non-overlapping sets based on the original pre-defined set annotations. Our approach focuses on finding the union of atoms that minimizes a weighted average of the number of false discoveries and missed discoveries. We introduce a new false discovery rate for sets, called the atomic false discovery rate (afdr), and prove that the optimal estimator in our decision-theory framework is to threshold the afdr. These results provide a coherent and interpretable framework for the analysis of sets that addresses the key issues of overlapping annotations and difficulty in interpreting p values in both competitive and self-contained tests. We illustrate our method and compare it to a popular existing method using simulated examples, as well as gene-set and brain ROI data analyses. PMID:23909925

  15. Adapting a GIS-Based Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach for Evaluating New Power Generating Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Blevins, Brandon R; Jochem, Warren C; Mays, Gary T; Belles, Randy; Hadley, Stanton W; Harrison, Thomas J; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Neish, Bradley S; Rose, Amy N

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing need to site new power generating plants that use cleaner energy sources due to increased regulations on air and water pollution and a sociopolitical desire to develop more clean energy sources. To assist utility and energy companies as well as policy-makers in evaluating potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States, a geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is presented in this paper. The presented approach has led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth analysis for siting options. To the utility and energy companies, the tool can quickly and effectively provide feedback on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. However, the tool does not replace the required detailed evaluation of candidate sites. To the policy-makers, the tool provides the ability to analyze the impacts of future energy technology while balancing competing resource use.

  16. An Alternative Methodological Approach for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Decision Making in Genomic Medicine.

    PubMed

    Fragoulakis, Vasilios; Mitropoulou, Christina; van Schaik, Ron H; Maniadakis, Nikolaos; Patrinos, George P

    2016-05-01

    Genomic Medicine aims to improve therapeutic interventions and diagnostics, the quality of life of patients, but also to rationalize healthcare costs. To reach this goal, careful assessment and identification of evidence gaps for public health genomics priorities are required so that a more efficient healthcare environment is created. Here, we propose a public health genomics-driven approach to adjust the classical healthcare decision making process with an alternative methodological approach of cost-effectiveness analysis, which is particularly helpful for genomic medicine interventions. By combining classical cost-effectiveness analysis with budget constraints, social preferences, and patient ethics, we demonstrate the application of this model, the Genome Economics Model (GEM), based on a previously reported genome-guided intervention from a developing country environment. The model and the attendant rationale provide a practical guide by which all major healthcare stakeholders could ensure the sustainability of funding for genome-guided interventions, their adoption and coverage by health insurance funds, and prioritization of Genomic Medicine research, development, and innovation, given the restriction of budgets, particularly in developing countries and low-income healthcare settings in developed countries. The implications of the GEM for the policy makers interested in Genomic Medicine and new health technology and innovation assessment are also discussed. PMID:27096406

  17. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  18. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  19. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

  20. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  1. Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zadeh, L. A.

    1973-01-01

    Development of a conceptual framework for dealing with systems which are too complex or too ill-defined to admit of precise quantitative analysis. The approach outlined is based on the premise that the key elements in human thinking are not numbers, but labels of fuzzy sets - i.e., classes of objects in which the transition from membership to nonmembership is gradual rather than abrupt. The approach in question has three main distinguishing features - namely, the use of so-called 'linguistic' variables in place of or in addition to numerical variables, the characterization of simple relations between variables by conditional fuzzy statements, and the characterization of complex relations by fuzzy algorithms.

  2. A Risk-Constrained Multi-Stage Decision Making Approach to the Architectural Analysis of Mars Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuwata, Yoshiaki; Pavone, Marco; Balaram, J. (Bob)

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a novel risk-constrained multi-stage decision making approach to the architectural analysis of planetary rover missions. In particular, focusing on a 2018 Mars rover concept, which was considered as part of a potential Mars Sample Return campaign, we model the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) phase and the rover traverse phase as four sequential decision-making stages. The problem is to find a sequence of divert and driving maneuvers so that the rover drive is minimized and the probability of a mission failure (e.g., due to a failed landing) is below a user specified bound. By solving this problem for several different values of the model parameters (e.g., divert authority), this approach enables rigorous, accurate and systematic trade-offs for the EDL system vs. the mobility system, and, more in general, cross-domain trade-offs for the different phases of a space mission. The overall optimization problem can be seen as a chance-constrained dynamic programming problem, with the additional complexity that 1) in some stages the disturbances do not have any probabilistic characterization, and 2) the state space is extremely large (i.e, hundreds of millions of states for trade-offs with high-resolution Martian maps). To this purpose, we solve the problem by performing an unconventional combination of average and minimax cost analysis and by leveraging high efficient computation tools from the image processing community. Preliminary trade-off results are presented.

  3. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis☆

    PubMed Central

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty–sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights. PMID:25843987

  4. An approach for automated fault diagnosis based on a fuzzy decision tree and boundary analysis of a reconstructed phase space.

    PubMed

    Aydin, Ilhan; Karakose, Mehmet; Akin, Erhan

    2014-03-01

    Although reconstructed phase space is one of the most powerful methods for analyzing a time series, it can fail in fault diagnosis of an induction motor when the appropriate pre-processing is not performed. Therefore, boundary analysis based a new feature extraction method in phase space is proposed for diagnosis of induction motor faults. The proposed approach requires the measurement of one phase current signal to construct the phase space representation. Each phase space is converted into an image, and the boundary of each image is extracted by a boundary detection algorithm. A fuzzy decision tree has been designed to detect broken rotor bars and broken connector faults. The results indicate that the proposed approach has a higher recognition rate than other methods on the same dataset. PMID:24296116

  5. Analysis of the impact of recreational trail usage for prioritising management decisions: a regression tree approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomczyk, Aleksandra; Ewertowski, Marek; White, Piran; Kasprzak, Leszek

    2016-04-01

    The dual role of many Protected Natural Areas in providing benefits for both conservation and recreation poses challenges for management. Although recreation-based damage to ecosystems can occur very quickly, restoration can take many years. The protection of conservation interests at the same as providing for recreation requires decisions to be made about how to prioritise and direct management actions. Trails are commonly used to divert visitors from the most important areas of a site, but high visitor pressure can lead to increases in trail width and a concomitant increase in soil erosion. Here we use detailed field data on condition of recreational trails in Gorce National Park, Poland, as the basis for a regression tree analysis to determine the factors influencing trail deterioration, and link specific trail impacts with environmental, use related and managerial factors. We distinguished 12 types of trails, characterised by four levels of degradation: (1) trails with an acceptable level of degradation; (2) threatened trails; (3) damaged trails; and (4) heavily damaged trails. Damaged trails were the most vulnerable of all trails and should be prioritised for appropriate conservation and restoration. We also proposed five types of monitoring of recreational trail conditions: (1) rapid inventory of negative impacts; (2) monitoring visitor numbers and variation in type of use; (3) change-oriented monitoring focusing on sections of trail which were subjected to changes in type or level of use or subjected to extreme weather events; (4) monitoring of dynamics of trail conditions; and (5) full assessment of trail conditions, to be carried out every 10-15 years. The application of the proposed framework can enhance the ability of Park managers to prioritise their trail management activities, enhancing trail conditions and visitor safety, while minimising adverse impacts on the conservation value of the ecosystem. A.M.T. was supported by the Polish Ministry of

  6. An Analysis of the EPA Report on Pipeline Renewal Decision Making Tools and Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Few DSS are commercially available for technology selection as most utilities make decisions based on in-house and consultant expertise (Matthews et al., 2011). This review presents some of the models proposed over the past 15 years for selecting technologies in the U.S. and wor...

  7. Analysis of Wastewater and Water System Renewal Decision-Making Tools and Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    In regards to the development of software for decision support for pipeline renewal, most of the attention to date has been paid to the development of asset management models which help an owner decide on which portions of a system to prioritize for needed actions. There has not ...

  8. Decision Analysis Using Spreadsheets.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sounderpandian, Jayavel

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of decision analysis and its importance in a business curriculum focuses on the use of spreadsheets instead of commercial software packages for computer assisted instruction. A hypothetical example is given of a company drilling for oil, and suggestions are provided for classroom exercises using spreadsheets. (seven references) (LRW)

  9. Determining the optimal approach to improving trauma triage decisions: a cost-effectiveness analysis

    PubMed Central

    Mohan, Deepika; Barnato, Amber E; Rosengart, Matthew R; Angus, Derek C; Smith, Kenneth J

    2013-01-01

    Objective To identify the optimal target of a future intervention to improve physician decision making in trauma triage. Study Design A comparison of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of current practice versus hypothetical interventions targeting either physicians’ decisional thresholds (attitudes towards transferring patients to trauma centers) or perceptual sensitivity (ability to identify patients who meet guidelines for transfer). Methods Taking the societal perspective, we constructed a Markov decision model. We drew estimates of triage patterns, mortality, utilities, and costs from the literature. We assumed that an intervention to change decisional threshold would reduce under-triage but also increase over-triage more than an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity. We performed a series of one-way sensitivity analyses, and studied the most influential variables in a Monte Carlo simulation. Results The ICER of an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity was $62,799/ quality-adjusted life years (QALY)-gained compared with current practice. The ICER of an intervention to change decisional threshold was $104,975/QALY-gained compared with an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity. These findings were most sensitive to the relative cost of hospitalizing patients with moderate-severe injuries and their relative risk of dying at non-trauma centers. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY-gained, there was a 62% likelihood that an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity was the most cost-effective alternative. Conclusions Even a minor investment in changing decision making in trauma triage could greatly improve the quality of care provided. The optimal intervention depends on the characteristics of the individual trauma systems. PMID:22435966

  10. Stochastic decision analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lacksonen, Thomas A.

    1994-01-01

    Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given

  11. SCORE: a novel multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing the sustainability of contaminated land remediation.

    PubMed

    Rosén, Lars; Back, Pär-Erik; Söderqvist, Tore; Norrman, Jenny; Brinkhoff, Petra; Norberg, Tommy; Volchko, Yevheniya; Norin, Malin; Bergknut, Magnus; Döberl, Gernot

    2015-04-01

    The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method provides for a comprehensive and transparent basis for performing sustainability assessments. Development of a relevant MCDA-method requires consideration of a number of key issues, e.g. (a) definition of assessment boundaries, (b) definition of performance scales, both temporal and spatial, (c) selection of relevant criteria (indicators) that facilitate a comprehensive sustainability assessment while avoiding double-counting of effects, and (d) handling of uncertainties. Adding to the complexity is the typically wide variety of inputs, including quantifications based on existing data, expert judgements, and opinions expressed in interviews. The SCORE (Sustainable Choice Of REmediation) MCDA-method was developed to provide a transparent assessment of the sustainability of possible remediation alternatives for contaminated sites relative to a reference alternative, considering key criteria in the economic, environmental, and social sustainability domains. The criteria were identified based on literature studies, interviews and focus-group meetings. SCORE combines a linear additive model to rank the alternatives with a non-compensatory approach to identify alternatives regarded as non-sustainable. The key strengths of the SCORE method are as follows: a framework that at its core is designed to be flexible and transparent; the possibility to integrate both quantitative and qualitative estimations on criteria; its ability, unlike other sustainability assessment tools used in industry and academia, to allow for the alteration of boundary conditions where necessary; the inclusion of a full uncertainty analysis of the results, using Monte Carlo simulation; and a structure that allows preferences and opinions of involved stakeholders to be openly integrated into the analysis. A major insight from practical application of SCORE is that its most important contribution may be that it initiates a process where criteria

  12. Probabilistic approach to decision making under uncertainty during volcanic crises. Retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; Kilburn, Christopher; López, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial to improving the design of effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely-populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision makers. Here we present a new model BADEMO (Bayesian Decision Model) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves, and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision makers.

  13. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics.

    PubMed

    Bates, Matthew E; Larkin, Sabrina; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach) and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach). Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), value of information (VOI), weight of evidence (WOE), and portfolio decision analysis (PDA) can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges. PMID:26425410

  14. 2D Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling Tool for River Restoration Decision Analysis: A Quantitative Approach to Project Prioritization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandrowski, D.; Lai, Y.; Bradley, N.; Gaeuman, D. A.; Murauskas, J.; Som, N. A.; Martin, A.; Goodman, D.; Alvarez, J.

    2014-12-01

    In the field of river restoration sciences there is a growing need for analytical modeling tools and quantitative processes to help identify and prioritize project sites. 2D hydraulic models have become more common in recent years and with the availability of robust data sets and computing technology, it is now possible to evaluate large river systems at the reach scale. The Trinity River Restoration Program is now analyzing a 40 mile segment of the Trinity River to determine priority and implementation sequencing for its Phase II rehabilitation projects. A comprehensive approach and quantitative tool has recently been developed to analyze this complex river system referred to as: 2D-Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling (2D-HBLM). This tool utilizes various hydraulic output parameters combined with biological, ecological, and physical metrics at user-defined spatial scales. These metrics and their associated algorithms are the underpinnings of the 2D-HBLM habitat module used to evaluate geomorphic characteristics, riverine processes, and habitat complexity. The habitat metrics are further integrated into a comprehensive Logic Model framework to perform statistical analyses to assess project prioritization. The Logic Model will analyze various potential project sites by evaluating connectivity using principal component methods. The 2D-HBLM tool will help inform management and decision makers by using a quantitative process to optimize desired response variables with balancing important limiting factors in determining the highest priority locations within the river corridor to implement restoration projects. Effective river restoration prioritization starts with well-crafted goals that identify the biological objectives, address underlying causes of habitat change, and recognizes that social, economic, and land use limiting factors may constrain restoration options (Bechie et. al. 2008). Applying natural resources management actions, like restoration prioritization, is

  15. The decision tree approach to classification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, C.; Landgrebe, D. A.; Swain, P. H.

    1975-01-01

    A class of multistage decision tree classifiers is proposed and studied relative to the classification of multispectral remotely sensed data. The decision tree classifiers are shown to have the potential for improving both the classification accuracy and the computation efficiency. Dimensionality in pattern recognition is discussed and two theorems on the lower bound of logic computation for multiclass classification are derived. The automatic or optimization approach is emphasized. Experimental results on real data are reported, which clearly demonstrate the usefulness of decision tree classifiers.

  16. Latent effects decision analysis

    DOEpatents

    Cooper, J. Arlin; Werner, Paul W.

    2004-08-24

    Latent effects on a system are broken down into components ranging from those far removed in time from the system under study (latent) to those which closely effect changes in the system. Each component is provided with weighted inputs either by a user or from outputs of other components. A non-linear mathematical process known as `soft aggregation` is performed on the inputs to each component to provide information relating to the component. This information is combined in decreasing order of latency to the system to provide a quantifiable measure of an attribute of a system (e.g., safety) or to test hypotheses (e.g., for forensic deduction or decisions about various system design options).

  17. Multicriteria decision analysis in oncology

    PubMed Central

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Montero, Alberto J.; Xiao, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Background There has been a growing interest in the development and application of alternative decision-making frameworks within health care, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). Even though the literature includes several reviews on MCDA methods, applications of MCDA in oncology are lacking. Aim The aim of this paper is to discuss a rationale for the use of MCDA in oncology. In this context, the following research question emerged: How can MCDA be used to develop a clinical decision support tool in oncology? Methods In this paper, a brief background on decision making is presented, followed by an overview of MCDA methods and process. The paper discusses some applications of MCDA, proposes research opportunities in the context of oncology and presents an illustrative example of how MCDA can be applied to oncology. Findings Decisions in oncology involve trade-offs between possible benefits and harms. MCDA can help analyse trade-off preferences. A wide range of MCDA methods exist. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses. Choosing the appropriate method varies depending on the source and nature of information used to inform decision making. The literature review identified eight studies. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most often used method in the identified studies. Conclusion Overall, MCDA appears to be a promising tool that can be used to assist clinical decision making in oncology. Nonetheless, field testing is desirable before MCDA becomes an established decision-making tool in this field. PMID:24635949

  18. Initial Decision and Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-29

    Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

  19. Comprehensive evaluation of water resources security in the Yellow River basin based on a fuzzy multi-attribute decision analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, K. K.; Li, C. H.; Cai, Y. P.; Xu, M.; Xia, X. H.

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, a fuzzy multi-attribute decision analysis approach (FMADAA) was developed for supporting the evaluation of water resources security in nine provinces within the Yellow River basin. A numerical approximation system and a modified left-right scoring approach were adopted to cope with the uncertainties in the acquired information. Also, four conventional multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) methods were implemented in the evaluation model for impact evaluation, including simple weighted addition (SWA), weighted product (WP), cooperative game theory (CGT) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). Moreover, several aggregation methods including average ranking procedure, Borda and Copeland methods were used to integrate the ranking results, helping rank the water resources security in those nine provinces as well as improving reliability of evaluation results. The ranking results showed that the water resources security of the entire basin was in critical condition, including the insecurity and absolute insecurity states, especially in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia provinces in which water resources were lower than the average quantity in China. Hence, the improvement of water eco-environment statuses in the above-mentioned provinces should be prioritized in the future planning of the Yellow River basin.

  20. A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

    PubMed

    de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

    2016-04-01

    A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. PMID:26422298

  1. Multi-criteria decision analysis as an innovative approach to managing zoonoses: results from a study on Lyme disease in Canada

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Zoonoses are a growing international threat interacting at the human-animal-environment interface and call for transdisciplinary and multi-sectoral approaches in order to achieve effective disease management. The recent emergence of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada is a good example of a complex health issue for which the public health sector must find protective interventions. Traditional preventive and control interventions can have important environmental, social and economic impacts and as a result, decision-making requires a systems approach capable of integrating these multiple aspects of interventions. This paper presents the results from a study of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach for the management of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada. MCDA methods allow a comparison of interventions or alternatives based on multiple criteria. Methods MCDA models were developed to assess various prevention and control decision criteria pertinent to a comprehensive management of Lyme disease: a first model was developed for surveillance interventions and a second was developed for control interventions. Multi-criteria analyses were conducted under two epidemiological scenarios: a disease emergence scenario and an epidemic scenario. Results In general, we observed a good level of agreement between stakeholders. For the surveillance model, the three preferred interventions were: active surveillance of vectors by flagging or dragging, active surveillance of vectors by trapping of small rodents and passive surveillance of vectors of human origin. For the control interventions model, basic preventive communications, human vaccination and small scale landscaping were the three preferred interventions. Scenarios were found to only have a small effect on the group ranking of interventions in the control model. Conclusions MCDA was used to structure key decision criteria and capture the complexity of Lyme disease management. This facilitated the

  2. Ethical Decision-Making and Ethical Responding: An Analysis and Critique of Various Approaches through Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sun, Jing-Ping

    2011-01-01

    For three decades, the scholars in the area of values in educational administration and the moral dimension of leadership have conceptually argued for and empirically explored the centrality of values to educational administration. This centrality may be expressed as the roles and nature of values in decision-making and conflict resolution.…

  3. Comprehensive evaluation of water resources security in the Yellow River basin based on a Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, K. K.; Li, C. H.; Cai, Y. P.; Xu, M.; Xia, X. H.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis Approach (FMADAA) was adopted in water resources security evaluation for the nine provinces in the Yellow River basin in 2006. A numerical approximation system and a modified left-right scoring approach were adopted to cope with the uncertainties in the acquired information. Four multi-attribute decision making methods were implemented in the evaluation model for impact evaluation, including simple weighted addition (SWA), weighted product (WP), cooperative game theory (CGT) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) which could be used for helping rank the water resources security in those nine provinces as well as the criteria alternatives. Moreover, several aggregation methods including average ranking procedure, borda and copeland methods were used to integrate the ranking results. The ranking results showed that the water resources security of the entire basin is in critical, insecurity and absolute insecurity state, especially in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia provinces in which water resources were lower than the average quantity in China. Hence, future planning of the Yellow River basin should mainly focus on the improvement of water eco-environment status in the provinces above.

  4. A decision theoretical approach for diffusion promotion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Fei; Liu, Yun

    2009-09-01

    In order to maximize cost efficiency from scarce marketing resources, marketers are facing the problem of which group of consumers to target for promotions. We propose to use a decision theoretical approach to model this strategic situation. According to one promotion model that we develop, marketers balance between probabilities of successful persuasion and the expected profits on a diffusion scale, before making their decisions. In the other promotion model, the cost for identifying influence information is considered, and marketers are allowed to ignore individual heterogeneity. We apply the proposed approach to two threshold influence models, evaluate the utility of each promotion action, and provide discussions about the best strategy. Our results show that efforts for targeting influentials or easily influenced people might be redundant under some conditions.

  5. Decision-problem state analysis methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dieterly, D. L.

    1980-01-01

    A methodology for analyzing a decision-problem state is presented. The methodology is based on the analysis of an incident in terms of the set of decision-problem conditions encountered. By decomposing the events that preceded an unwanted outcome, such as an accident, into the set of decision-problem conditions that were resolved, a more comprehensive understanding is possible. All human-error accidents are not caused by faulty decision-problem resolutions, but it appears to be one of the major areas of accidents cited in the literature. A three-phase methodology is presented which accommodates a wide spectrum of events. It allows for a systems content analysis of the available data to establish: (1) the resolutions made, (2) alternatives not considered, (3) resolutions missed, and (4) possible conditions not considered. The product is a map of the decision-problem conditions that were encountered as well as a projected, assumed set of conditions that should have been considered. The application of this methodology introduces a systematic approach to decomposing the events that transpired prior to the accident. The initial emphasis is on decision and problem resolution. The technique allows for a standardized method of accident into a scenario which may used for review or the development of a training simulation.

  6. A Structured approach to incidental take decision making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor P.

    2013-01-01

    Decision making related to incidental take of endangered species under U.S. law lends itself well to a structured decision making approach. Incidental take is the permitted killing, harming, or harassing of a protected species under the law as long as that harm is incidental to an otherwise lawful activity and does not “reduce appreciably the probability of survival and recovery in the wild.” There has been inconsistency in the process used for determining incidental take allowances across species and across time for the same species, and structured decision making has been proposed to improve decision making. I use an example decision analysis to demonstrate the process and its applicability to incidental take decisions, even under significant demographic uncertainty and multiple, competing objectives. I define the example problem, present an objectives statement and a value function, use a simulation model to assess the consequences of a set of management actions, and evaluate the tradeoffs among the different actions. The approach results in transparent and repeatable decisions.

  7. A Structured Approach to Incidental Take Decision Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGowan, Conor P.

    2013-01-01

    Decision making related to incidental take of endangered species under U.S. law lends itself well to a structured decision making approach. Incidental take is the permitted killing, harming, or harassing of a protected species under the law as long as that harm is incidental to an otherwise lawful activity and does not "reduce appreciably the probability of survival and recovery in the wild." There has been inconsistency in the process used for determining incidental take allowances across species and across time for the same species, and structured decision making has been proposed to improve decision making. I use an example decision analysis to demonstrate the process and its applicability to incidental take decisions, even under significant demographic uncertainty and multiple, competing objectives. I define the example problem, present an objectives statement and a value function, use a simulation model to assess the consequences of a set of management actions, and evaluate the tradeoffs among the different actions. The approach results in transparent and repeatable decisions.

  8. Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Akar, S.; Young, K. R.

    2015-02-01

    Geothermal exploration projects have significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and when to walk away from a site, are two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment. Current methodologies for exploration decision making is left to subjective by subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go-no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on a location. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of a particular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basic geothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This second approach was

  9. ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS: A FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNITY DECISION-MAKING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Alternative futures analysis is an assessment approach designed to inform community decisions about land and water use. We conducted an alternative futures analysis in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. Three alternative future landscapes for the year 2050 were depicted and compare...

  10. Decision story strategy: a practical approach for teaching decision making.

    PubMed

    Smith, D L; Hamrick, M H; Anspaugh, D J

    1981-12-01

    Teachers are usually very enthusiastic in their evaluations of decision stories. Decision Story Strategies offer a change of pace, promote student involvement and stimulate creative thinking, problem solving and everpresent creative teaching-learning opportunities. The real-life problems presented within the structure of a decision story provide meaningful learning opportunities for students. Students begin to think in a broader perspective when considering other points of view and information sources. The Decision Story Strategy used with the Decision-Making Model provides a powerful tool for health educators to develop skills for making and evaluating decisions in an interesting and meaningful context. It may not be a panacea for all health educators, but is an effective strategy for the teacher concerned with developing independent decision makers. Most importantly, students are provided opportunities to solve their present problems as well as develop decision-making skills for the future. PMID:6916032

  11. Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Orient, J.M.

    1985-02-01

    Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness.

  12. A Systematic Approach for Climate Change Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S. J.; Higgins, G. J.; Vanwijngaarden, F.

    2010-12-01

    To effectively predict and prepare for the effects of global climate change on the worldwide population, infrastructure and economy, we need to take a quantum leap forward in how we deal with the issue. Those who must make climate-sensitive decisions need access to the best available climate science information and analysis. To overcome barriers and change behavior, the information must be credible, robust, unbiased, and based on research results that are broadly accepted by the climate science community. Moreover, the process for delivery of information must be tailored to the users’ needs and practices. Unfortunately, much of climate science data today is in the “science domain”, and not available to end users in a form they can use to take action. So there is a need to bridge the gap and take a systematic approach driven by user requirements to sharing climate change science research and analysis with decision makers that would enable them to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. These needs will become all the more pressing as climate change information is used in real world decisions involving the commitment of large resources and with potential liability and litigation. In this paper, we describe an approach that involves multidisciplinary cooperation and systematic integration of climate change data acquisition and management, climate modeling and projections, uncertainty quantification and risk assessments, economic analysis, and decision support delivered through customized user interfaces.

  13. Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whalen, Thomas

    1992-01-01

    This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

  14. Do We Know Why We Make Errors in Morphological Diagnosis? An Analysis of Approach and Decision-Making in Haematological Morphology

    PubMed Central

    Brereton, Michelle; De La Salle, Barbara; Ardern, John; Hyde, Keith; Burthem, John

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background The laboratory interpretation of blood film morphology is frequently a rapid, accurate, and cost-effective final-stage of blood count analysis. However, the interpretation of findings often rests with a single individual, and errors can carry significant impact. Cell identification and classification skills are well supported by existing resources, but the contribution and importance of other skills are less well understood. Methods The UK external quality assurance group in haematology (UK NEQAS(H)) runs a Continued Professional Development scheme where large digital-images of abnormal blood smears are presented using a web-based virtual microscope. Each case is answered by more than 800 individuals. Morphological feature selection and prioritisation, as well as diagnosis and proposed action, are recorded. We analysed the responses of participants, aiming to identify successful strategies as well as sources of error. Findings The approach to assessment by participants depended on the affected cell type, case complexity or skills of the morphologist. For cases with few morphological abnormalities, we found that accurate cell identification and classification were the principle requirements for success. For more complex films however, feature recognition and prioritisation had primary importance. Additionally however, we found that participants employed a range of heuristic techniques to support their assessment, leading to associated bias and error. Interpretation A wide range of skills together allow successful morphological assessment and the complexity of this process is not always understood or recognised. Heuristic techniques are widely employed to support or reinforce primary observations and to simplify complex findings. These approaches are effective and are integral to assessment; however they may also be a source of bias or error. Improving outcomes and supporting diagnosis require the development of decision-support mechanisms that

  15. NASA program decisions using reliability analysis.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steinberg, A.

    1972-01-01

    NASA made use of the analytical outputs of reliability people to make management decisions on the Apollo program. Such decisions affected the amount of the incentive fees, how much acceptance testing was necessary, how to optimize development testing, whether to approve engineering changes, and certification of flight readiness. Examples of such analysis are discussed and related to programmatic decisions.-

  16. Engaging patients using an interprofessional approach to shared decision making.

    PubMed

    Dawn, Stacey; Légaré, France

    2015-01-01

    Many cancer treatment and screening decisions are difficult given that they rely upon patients' informed preferences. Interprofessional shared decision making is when two or more health care professionals collaborate with a patient to reach an agreed-upon decision. To support patients' engagement in shared decision making, effective interventions include patient decision aids and/or decision coaching. Patient decision aids are typically written or video-based resources, while decision coaching is provided by trained health care professionals who are supportive but non-directive. Both interventions make explicit the decision, provide balanced information on options based on the best available evidence, and help patients consider what matters most. The overall aim is to discuss how oncology nurses can engage in an interprofessional approach to shared decision making. PMID:26897867

  17. From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

    2010-01-01

    Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an alternative…

  18. Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gati, Itamar

    1986-01-01

    Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

  19. Using multiple criteria decision analysis for supporting decisions of solid waste management.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Steven; Chan, Christine W; Huang, Guo H

    2002-01-01

    Design of solid-waste management systems requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and evaluation criteria because the systems can have complex and conflicting impacts on different stakeholders. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been found to be a fruitful approach to solve this design problem. In this paper, the MCDA approach is applied to solve the landfill selection problem in Regina of Saskatchewan Canada. The systematic approach of MCDA helps decision makers select the most preferable decision and provides the basis of a decision support system. The techniques that are used in this study include: 1) Simple Weighted Addition method, 2) Weighted Product method, 3) TOPSIS, 4) cooperative game theory, and 5) ELECTRE. The results generated with these methods are compared and ranked so that the most preferable solution is identified. PMID:12090287

  20. Decision Tree Approach for Soil Liquefaction Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Gandomi, Amir H.; Fridline, Mark M.; Roke, David A.

    2013-01-01

    In the current study, the performances of some decision tree (DT) techniques are evaluated for postearthquake soil liquefaction assessment. A database containing 620 records of seismic parameters and soil properties is used in this study. Three decision tree techniques are used here in two different ways, considering statistical and engineering points of view, to develop decision rules. The DT results are compared to the logistic regression (LR) model. The results of this study indicate that the DTs not only successfully predict liquefaction but they can also outperform the LR model. The best DT models are interpreted and evaluated based on an engineering point of view. PMID:24489498

  1. Data Decision Analysis: Project Shoal

    SciTech Connect

    Forsgren, Frank; Pohll, Greg; Tracy, John

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the most appropriate field activities in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the groundwater flow and transport model at the Project Shoal area. The data decision analysis relied on well-known tools of statistics and uncertainty analysis. This procedure identified nine parameters that were deemed uncertain. These included effective porosity, hydraulic head, surface recharge, hydraulic conductivity, fracture correlation scale, fracture orientation, dip angle, dissolution rate of radionuclides from the puddle glass, and the retardation coefficient, which describes the sorption characteristics. The parameter uncertainty was described by assigning prior distributions for each of these parameters. Next, the various field activities were identified that would provide additional information on these parameters. Each of the field activities was evaluated by an expert panel to estimate posterior distribution of the parameters assuming a field activity was performed. The posterior distributions describe the ability of the field activity to estimate the true value of the nine parameters. Monte Carlo techniques were used to determine the current uncertainty, the reduction of uncertainty if a single parameter was known with certainty, and the reduction of uncertainty expected from each field activity on the model predictions. The mean breakthrough time to the downgradient land withdrawal boundary and the peak concentration at the control boundary were used to evaluate the uncertainty reduction. The radionuclide 137Cs was used as the reference solute, as its migration is dependent on all of the parameters. The results indicate that the current uncertainty of the model yields a 95 percent confidence interval between 42 and 1,412 years for the mean breakthrough time and an 18 order-of-magnitude range in peak concentration. The uncertainty in effective porosity and recharge dominates the uncertainty in the model predictions, while the

  2. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  3. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    PubMed

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria. PMID:24154917

  4. A Bayesian sequential processor approach to spectroscopic portal system decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Sale, K; Candy, J; Breitfeller, E; Guidry, B; Manatt, D; Gosnell, T; Chambers, D

    2007-07-31

    The development of faster more reliable techniques to detect radioactive contraband in a portal type scenario is an extremely important problem especially in this era of constant terrorist threats. Towards this goal the development of a model-based, Bayesian sequential data processor for the detection problem is discussed. In the sequential processor each datum (detector energy deposit and pulse arrival time) is used to update the posterior probability distribution over the space of model parameters. The nature of the sequential processor approach is that a detection is produced as soon as it is statistically justified by the data rather than waiting for a fixed counting interval before any analysis is performed. In this paper the Bayesian model-based approach, physics and signal processing models and decision functions are discussed along with the first results of our research.

  5. Variations in Decision-Making Approach to Tertiary Teaching: A Case Study in Vietnam

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nguyen, Thanh Tien

    2016-01-01

    Although the question of what to teach and how to teach has received much attention from the literature, little was known about the way in which academics in teaching groups make decision on what and how to teach. This paper reports an analysis of variations in the decision-making approach to tertiary teaching through academics' practices of…

  6. Neural substrates of approach-avoidance conflict decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Aupperle, Robin L.; Melrose, Andrew J.; Francisco, Alex; Paulus, Martin P.; Stein, Murray B.

    2014-01-01

    Animal approach-avoidance conflict paradigms have been used extensively to operationalize anxiety, quantify the effects of anxiolytic agents, and probe the neural basis of fear and anxiety. Results from human neuroimaging studies support that a frontal-striatal-amygdala neural circuitry is important for approach-avoidance learning. However, the neural basis of decision-making is much less clear in this context. Thus, we combined a recently developed human approach-avoidance paradigm with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to identify neural substrates underlying approach-avoidance conflict decision-making. Fifteen healthy adults completed the approach-avoidance conflict (AAC) paradigm during fMRI. Analyses of variance were used to compare conflict to non-conflict (avoid-threat and approach-reward) conditions and to compare level of reward points offered during the decision phase. Trial-by-trial amplitude modulation analyses were used to delineate brain areas underlying decision-making in the context of approach/avoidance behavior. Conflict trials as compared to the non-conflict trials elicited greater activation within bilateral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), anterior insula, and caudate, as well as right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Right caudate and lateral PFC activation was modulated by level of reward offered. Individuals who showed greater caudate activation exhibited less approach behavior. On a trial-by-trial basis, greater right lateral PFC activation related to less approach behavior. Taken together, results suggest that the degree of activation within prefrontal-striatal-insula circuitry determines the degree of approach versus avoidance decision-making. Moreover, the degree of caudate and lateral PFC activation is related to individual differences in approach-avoidance decision-making. Therefore, the AAC paradigm is ideally suited to probe anxiety-related processing differences during approach-avoidance decision-making. PMID:25224633

  7. Computer-Assisted Approaches to Multiattribute Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radcliff, Benjamin

    1986-01-01

    This article evaluates three general types of computer-assisted approaches to multicriteria decision problems in which criteria are attributes as opposed to objectives. Several programs specifically designed for multiattribute problems, as well as spreadsheets and decision-free software, are discussed. (Author/BS)

  8. Which Bisphosphonate? It's the Compliance!: Decision Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lee, You Jin; Park, Chan Ho; Ha, Yong-Chan; Koo, Kyung-Hoi

    2016-01-01

    Background The best options of several bisphosphonates for prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women remain controversial. We determined which bisphosphonate provides better efficacy in prevention of osteoporotic fractures using a decision analysis tool, in terms of quality of life. Methods A decision analysis model was constructed containing final outcome score and the probability of vertebral and hip fracture within 1 year. Final outcome was defined as health-related quality of life, and was used as an utility in the decision tree. Probabilities were obtained by literature review, and health-related quality of life was evaluated by consensus committee. A roll back tool was used to determine the best bisphosphonate, and sensitivity analysis was performed to compensate for decision model uncertainty. Results The decision model favored bisphosphonate with higher compliance in terms of quality of life. In one-way sensitivity analysis, ibandronate was more beneficial than the others, when probability of compliance on ibandronate was above 0.589. Conclusions In terms of quality of life, the decision analysis model showed that compliance was most important for patients in real world, regardless of type of bisphosphonate.

  9. Cloud service selection using multicriteria decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Whaiduzzaman, Md; Gani, Abdullah; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shiraz, Muhammad; Haque, Mohammad Nazmul; Haque, Israat Tanzeena

    2014-01-01

    Cloud computing (CC) has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a) focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b) highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c) presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d) analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios. PMID:24696645

  10. Cloud Service Selection Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shiraz, Muhammad; Haque, Israat Tanzeena

    2014-01-01

    Cloud computing (CC) has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a) focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b) highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c) presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d) analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios. PMID:24696645

  11. A Practical Approach to Modified Condition/Decision Coverage

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayhurst, Kelly J.; Veerhusem, Dan S.

    2001-01-01

    Testing of software intended for safety-critical applications in commercial transport aircraft must achieve modified condition/decision coverage (MC/DC) of the software structure. This requirement causes anxiety for many within the aviation software community. Results of a survey of the aviation software industry indicate that many developers believe that meeting the MC/DC requirement is difficult, and the cost is exorbitant. Some of the difficulties stem, no doubt, from the scant information available on the subject. This paper provides a practical 5-step approach for assessing MC/DC for aviation software products, and an analysis of some types of errors expected to be caught when MC/DC is achieved1.

  12. A Variable Precision Attribute Reduction Approach in Multilabel Decision Tables

    PubMed Central

    Li, Hua; Li, Deyu; Zhai, Yanhui; Wang, Suge; Zhang, Jing

    2014-01-01

    Owing to the high dimensionality of multilabel data, feature selection in multilabel learning will be necessary in order to reduce the redundant features and improve the performance of multilabel classification. Rough set theory, as a valid mathematical tool for data analysis, has been widely applied to feature selection (also called attribute reduction). In this study, we propose a variable precision attribute reduct for multilabel data based on rough set theory, called δ-confidence reduct, which can correctly capture the uncertainty implied among labels. Furthermore, judgement theory and discernibility matrix associated with δ-confidence reduct are also introduced, from which we can obtain the approach to knowledge reduction in multilabel decision tables. PMID:25170521

  13. A variable precision attribute reduction approach in multilabel decision tables.

    PubMed

    Li, Hua; Li, Deyu; Zhai, Yanhui; Wang, Suge; Zhang, Jing

    2014-01-01

    Owing to the high dimensionality of multilabel data, feature selection in multilabel learning will be necessary in order to reduce the redundant features and improve the performance of multilabel classification. Rough set theory, as a valid mathematical tool for data analysis, has been widely applied to feature selection (also called attribute reduction). In this study, we propose a variable precision attribute reduct for multilabel data based on rough set theory, called δ-confidence reduct, which can correctly capture the uncertainty implied among labels. Furthermore, judgement theory and discernibility matrix associated with δ-confidence reduct are also introduced, from which we can obtain the approach to knowledge reduction in multilabel decision tables. PMID:25170521

  14. Aiding Lay Decision Making Using a Cognitive Competencies Approach

    PubMed Central

    Maule, A. J.; Maule, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Two prescriptive approaches have evolved to aid human decision making: just in time interventions that provide support as a decision is being made; and just in case interventions that educate people about future events that they may encounter so that they are better prepared to make an informed decision when these events occur. We review research on these two approaches developed in the context of supporting everyday decisions such as choosing an apartment, a financial product or a medical procedure. We argue that the lack of an underlying prescriptive theory has limited the development and evaluation of these interventions. We draw on recent descriptive research on the cognitive competencies that underpin human decision making to suggest new ways of interpreting how and why existing decision aids may be effective and suggest a different way of evaluating their effectiveness. We also briefly outline how our approach has the potential to develop new interventions to support everyday decision making and highlight the benefits of drawing on descriptive research when developing and evaluating interventions. PMID:26779052

  15. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    SciTech Connect

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. |

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  16. Decision Analysis for Equipment Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cilliers, J. J.

    2005-01-01

    Equipment selection during process design is a critical aspect of chemical engineering and requires engineering judgment and subjective analysis. When educating chemical engineering students in the selection of proprietary equipment during design, the focus is often on the types of equipment available and their operating characteristics. The…

  17. Architecting Space Exploration Campaigns: A Decision-Analytic Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baker, Erin; Morse, Elisabeth L.; Gray, Andrew A.; Easter, Robert W.

    2006-01-01

    This paper shows the benefits of Decision Analysis techniques for campaign design and evaluation. Important concepts of decision analysis are reviewed through the lens of designing a campaign to find exploitable equatorial water on Mars. The method developed herein is general to any search campaign. The paper concludes with a discussion of the challenges and opportunities in applying similar techniques to other types of campaigns.

  18. Geospatial Approach on Landslide Hazard Zonation Mapping Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Study on Coonoor and Ooty, Part of Kallar Watershed, The Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahamana, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.

    2014-12-01

    Landslides are one of the critical natural phenomena that frequently lead to serious problems in hilly area, resulting to loss of human life and property, as well as causing severe damage to natural resources. The local geology with high degree of slope coupled with high intensity of rainfall along with unplanned human activities of the study area causes many landslides in this region. The present study area is more attracted by tourist throughout the year, so this area must be considered for preventive measures. Geospatial based Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique is increasingly used for landslide vulnerability and hazard zonation mapping. It enables the integration of different data layers with different levels of uncertainty. In this present study, it is used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to prepare landslide hazard zones of the Coonoor and Ooty, part of Kallar watershed, The Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu. The study was carried out using remote sensing data, field surveys and geographic information system (GIS) tools. The ten factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope aspect, slope angle, drainage density, lineament density, soil, precipitation, land use/land cover (LULC), distance from road and NDVI were considered. These factors layers were extracted from the various related spatial data's. These factors were evaluated, and then, the individual factor weight and class weight were assigned to each of the related factors. The Landslide Hazard Zone Index (LHZI) was calculated using Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) the technique based on the assigned weight and the rating is given by the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The final cumulative map of the study area was categorized into four hazard zones and classified as zone I to IV. There are 3.56% of the area comes under the hazard zone IV fallowed by 48.19% of the area comes under zone III, 43.63 % of the area in zone II and 4.61% of the area comes hazard

  19. Economic aspects of clinical decision making: applications of clinical decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Crane, V S

    1988-03-01

    Clinical decision analysis as a basic tool for decision making is described, and potential applications of decision analysis in six areas of clinical practice are identified. Clinical decision analysis is a systematic method of describing clinical problems in a quantitative fashion, identifying possible courses of action, assessing the probability and value of outcomes, and then making a calculation to select the ultimate course of action. Clinical decision analysis provides a structure for clinical decision problems, helps clarify medical controversies, and encourages decision makers to speak a common language. Applications of clinical decision analysis in the areas of diagnostic testing, patient management, product and program selection, research and education, patient preferences, and health-care-policy evaluation are described. Decision analysis offers health professionals a tool for making quantifiable, cost-effective clinical decisions, especially in terms of clinical outcomes. PMID:3285672

  20. Beyond Bioethics: A Child Rights-Based Approach to Complex Medical Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Wade, Katherine; Melamed, Irene; Goldhagen, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    This analysis adopts a child rights approach-based on the principles, standards, and norms of child rights and the U.N. Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC)-to explore how decisions could be made with regard to treatment of a severely impaired infant (Baby G). While a child rights approach does not provide neat answers to ethically complex issues, it does provide a framework for decision-making in which the infant is viewed as an independent rights-holder. The state has obligations to develop the capacity of those who make decisions for infants in such situations to meet their obligations to respect, protect, and fulfill their rights as delineated in the CRC. Furthermore, a child rights approach requires procedural clarity and transparency in decision-making processes. As all rights in the CRC are interdependent and indivisible, all must be considered in the process of ethical decision-making, and the reasons for decisions must be delineated by reference to how these rights were considered. It is also important that decisions that are made in this context be monitored and reviewed to ensure consistency. A rights-based framework ensures decision-making is child-centered and that there are transparent criteria and legitimate procedures for making decisions regarding the child's most basic human right: the right to life, survival, and development. PMID:27157351

  1. Clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches in osteopathy - a qualitative grounded theory study.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Oliver P; Petty, Nicola J; Moore, Ann P

    2014-02-01

    There is limited understanding of how osteopaths make decisions in relation to clinical practice. The aim of this research was to construct an explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of experienced osteopaths in the UK. Twelve UK registered osteopaths participated in this constructivist grounded theory qualitative study. Purposive and theoretical sampling was used to select participants. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews which were audio-recorded and transcribed. As the study approached theoretical sufficiency, participants were observed and video-recorded during a patient appointment, which was followed by a video-prompted interview. Constant comparative analysis was used to analyse and code data. Data analysis resulted in the construction of three qualitatively different therapeutic approaches which characterised participants and their clinical practice, termed; Treater, Communicator and Educator. Participants' therapeutic approach influenced their approach to clinical decision-making, the level of patient involvement, their interaction with patients, and therapeutic goals. Participants' overall conception of practice lay on a continuum ranging from technical rationality to professional artistry, and contributed to their therapeutic approach. A range of factors were identified which influenced participants' conception of practice. The findings indicate that there is variation in osteopaths' therapeutic approaches to practice and clinical decision-making, which are influenced by their overall conception of practice. This study provides the first explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of osteopaths. PMID:23932101

  2. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  3. An object-oriented approach to site characterization decision support

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, R.

    1995-06-01

    Effective decision support for site characterization is key to determining the nature and extent of contamination and the associated human and environmental risks. Site characterization data, however, present particular problems to technical analysts and decision-makers. Such data are four dimensional, incorporating temporal and spatial components. Their sheer volume can be daunting -- sites with hundreds of monitoring wells and thousands of samples sent for laboratory analyses are not uncommon. Data are derived from a variety of sources including laboratory analyses, non-intrusive geophysical surveys, historical information, bore logs, in-field estimates of key physical parameters such as aquifer transmissivity, soil moisture content, depth-to-water table, etc. Ultimately, decisions have to be made based on data that are always incomplete, often confusing, inaccurate, or inappropriate, and occasionally wrong. In response to this challenge, two approaches to environmental decision support have arisen, Data Quality Objectives (DQOS) and the Observational Approach (OA). DQOs establish criteria for data collection by clearly defining the decisions that need to be made, the uncertainty that can be tolerated, and the type and amount of data that needs to be collected to satisfy the uncertainty requirements. In practice, DQOs are typically based on statistical measures. The OA accepts the fact that the process of characterizing and remediating contaminated sites is always uncertain. Decision-making with the OA is based on what is known about a site, with contingencies developed for potential future deviations from the original assumptions about contamination nature, extent, and risks posed.

  4. Collaborative prototyping approaches for ICU decision aid design.

    PubMed

    Ehrhart, L S; Hanson, C W; Marshall, B E; Marshall, C; Medsker, C

    1999-01-01

    When computer-based aids do not support the human users' decision-making strategies or anticipate the organizational impacts of technological change, advances in information technology may degrade rather than enhance decision-making performance. Such failures suggest the design of human-computer cooperation for problem solving and decision-making must be driven by human cognitive and organizational process requirements rather than computer technology. Decision- and user-centered development techniques involve domain experts and end-users in the earliest phases of design to evolve an understanding of requirements through iterative prototyping. This paper presents a collaborative approach to cognitive systems engineering applied to developing a clinical aid to assist respiratory care in the surgical ICU. PMID:10566460

  5. Decision making in bipolar disorder: a cognitive modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yechiam, Eldad; Hayden, Elizabeth P; Bodkins, Misty; O'Donnell, Brian F; Hetrick, William P

    2008-11-30

    A formal modeling approach was used to characterize decision-making processes in bipolar disorder. Decision making was examined in 28 bipolar patients (14 acute and 14 remitted) and 25 controls using the Iowa Gambling Task (Bechara et al., 1994), a decision-making task used for assessing cognitive impulsivity. To disentangle motivational and cognitive aspects of decision-making processes, we applied a formal cognitive model to the performance on the Iowa Gambling Task. The model has three parameters: The relative impact of rewards and punishments on evaluations, the impact of recent and past payoffs, and the degree of choice consistency. The results indicated that acute bipolar patients were characterized by low choice consistency, or a tendency to make erratic choices. Low choice consistency improved the prediction of acute bipolar disorder beyond that provided by cognitive functioning and self-report measures of personality and temperament. PMID:18848361

  6. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

  7. Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios

    2013-05-15

    Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.

  8. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  9. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach

    PubMed Central

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.; Pitt, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  10. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

    PubMed

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

    2013-02-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  11. A Fuzzy Set Theory Approach to Periodical Binding Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turner, Stephen J.; O'Brien, Gregory

    1984-01-01

    Results of data analysis on 470 journal titles illustrate complexity of the fuzzy set theory modeling process, which consists of three factors--number of missing issues, citations, circulations--and its limitations in making journal binding decisions. Procedures of research, data collection, and data analysis are discussed. Matrices are included.…

  12. Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science.

    PubMed

    Dhami, Mandeep K; Mandel, David R; Mellers, Barbara A; Tetlock, Philip E

    2015-11-01

    Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in policy decision making. Key functions of intelligence analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the uncertainties inherent in such forecasts, and effectively communicating those probabilistic forecasts to stakeholders. We review decision research on probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty communication, drawing attention to findings that could be used to reform intelligence processes and contribute to more effective intelligence oversight. We recommend that the intelligence community (IC) regularly and quantitatively monitor its forecasting accuracy to better understand how well it is achieving its functions. We also recommend that the IC use decision science to improve these functions (namely, forecasting and communication of intelligence estimates made under conditions of uncertainty). In the case of forecasting, decision research offers suggestions for improvement that involve interventions on data (e.g., transforming forecasts to debias them) and behavior (e.g., via selection, training, and effective team structuring). In the case of uncertainty communication, the literature suggests that current intelligence procedures, which emphasize the use of verbal probabilities, are ineffective. The IC should, therefore, leverage research that points to ways in which verbal probability use may be improved as well as exploring the use of numerical probabilities wherever feasible. PMID:26581731

  13. Decerns: A framework for multi-criteria decision analysis

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Yatsalo, Boris; Didenko, Vladimir; Gritsyuk, Sergey; Sullivan, Terry

    2015-02-27

    A new framework, Decerns, for multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of a wide range of practical problems on risk management is introduced. Decerns framework contains a library of modules that are the basis for two scalable systems: DecernsMCDA for analysis of multicriteria problems, and DecernsSDSS for multicriteria analysis of spatial options. DecernsMCDA includes well known MCDA methods and original methods for uncertainty treatment based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy numbers. As a result, these MCDA methods are described along with a case study on analysis of multicriteria location problem.

  14. Sample Size Estimation for Non-Inferiority Trials: Frequentist Approach versus Decision Theory Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bouman, A. C.; ten Cate-Hoek, A. J.; Ramaekers, B. L. T.; Joore, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Non-inferiority trials are performed when the main therapeutic effect of the new therapy is expected to be not unacceptably worse than that of the standard therapy, and the new therapy is expected to have advantages over the standard therapy in costs or other (health) consequences. These advantages however are not included in the classic frequentist approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials. In contrast, the decision theory approach of sample size calculation does include these factors. The objective of this study is to compare the conceptual and practical aspects of the frequentist approach and decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials, thereby demonstrating that the decision theory approach is more appropriate for sample size calculation of non-inferiority trials. Methods The frequentist approach and decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials are compared and applied to a case of a non-inferiority trial on individually tailored duration of elastic compression stocking therapy compared to two years elastic compression stocking therapy for the prevention of post thrombotic syndrome after deep vein thrombosis. Results The two approaches differ substantially in conceptual background, analytical approach, and input requirements. The sample size calculated according to the frequentist approach yielded 788 patients, using a power of 80% and a one-sided significance level of 5%. The decision theory approach indicated that the optimal sample size was 500 patients, with a net value of €92 million. Conclusions This study demonstrates and explains the differences between the classic frequentist approach and the decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials. We argue that the decision theory approach of sample size estimation is most suitable for sample size calculation of non-inferiority trials. PMID:26076354

  15. An automated approach to the design of decision tree classifiers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Argentiero, P.; Chin, P.; Beaudet, P.

    1980-01-01

    The classification of large dimensional data sets arising from the merging of remote sensing data with more traditional forms of ancillary data is considered. Decision tree classification, a popular approach to the problem, is characterized by the property that samples are subjected to a sequence of decision rules before they are assigned to a unique class. An automated technique for effective decision tree design which relies only on apriori statistics is presented. This procedure utilizes a set of two dimensional canonical transforms and Bayes table look-up decision rules. An optimal design at each node is derived based on the associated decision table. A procedure for computing the global probability of correct classfication is also provided. An example is given in which class statistics obtained from an actual LANDSAT scene are used as input to the program. The resulting decision tree design has an associated probability of correct classification of .76 compared to the theoretically optimum .79 probability of correct classification associated with a full dimensional Bayes classifier. Recommendations for future research are included.

  16. The Melbourne Code Appendices: announcing a new approach for tracking nomenclatural decisions and a analysis of the history of nomenclatural proposals

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A newly expanded digital resource exists for tracking decisions on all nomenclature proposals potentially contributing to Appendices II-VIII of the International Code of Nomenclature for algae, fungi, and plants. This resource originated with the Smithsonian Institution's Proposals and Disposals web...

  17. Teaching the Tools of Pharmaceutical Care Decision-Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rittenhouse, Brian E.

    1994-01-01

    A method of decision-analysis in pharmaceutical care that integrates epidemiology and economics is presented, including an example illustrating both the deceptive nature of medical decision making and the power of decision analysis. Principles in determining both general and specific probabilities of interest and use of decision trees for…

  18. Use of a pro-fibrogenic mechanism-based predictive toxicological approach for tiered testing and decision analysis of carbonaceous nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiang; Duch, Matthew C; Mansukhani, Nikhita; Ji, Zhaoxia; Liao, Yu-Pei; Wang, Meiying; Zhang, Haiyuan; Sun, Bingbing; Chang, Chong Hyun; Li, Ruibin; Lin, Sijie; Meng, Huan; Xia, Tian; Hersam, Mark C; Nel, André E

    2015-03-24

    Engineered carbonaceous nanomaterials (ECNs), including single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), graphene, and graphene oxide (GO), are potentially hazardous to the lung. With incremental experience in the use of predictive toxicological approaches, seeking to relate ECN physicochemical properties to adverse outcome pathways (AOPs), it is logical to explore the existence of a common AOP that allows comparative analysis of broad ECN categories. We established an ECN library comprising three different types of SWCNTs, graphene, and graphene oxide (two sizes) for comparative analysis according to a cell-based AOP that also plays a role in the pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis. SWCNTs synthesized by Hipco, arc discharge and Co-Mo catalyst (CoMoCAT) methods were obtained in their as-prepared (AP) state, following which they were further purified (PD) or coated with Pluronic F108 (PF108) or bovine serum albumin (BSA) to improve dispersal and colloidal stability. GO was prepared as two sizes, GO-small (S) and GO-large (L), while the graphene samples were coated with BSA and PF108 to enable dispersion in aqueous solution. In vitro screening showed that AP- and PD-SWCNTs, irrespective of the method of synthesis, as well as graphene (BSA) and GO (S and L) could trigger interleukin-1β (IL-1β) and transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) production in myeloid (THP-1) and epithelial (BEAS-2B) cell lines, respectively. Oropharyngeal aspiration in mice confirmed that AP-Hipco tubes, graphene (BSA-dispersed), GO-S and GO-L could induce IL-1β and TGF-β1 production in the lung in parallel with lung fibrosis. Notably, GO-L was the most pro-fibrogenic material based on rapid kinetics of pulmonary injury. In contrast, PF108-dispersed SWCNTs and -graphene failed to exert fibrogenic effects. Collectively, these data indicate that the dispersal state and surface reactivity of ECNs play key roles in triggering a pro-fibrogenic AOP, which could prove

  19. Methodical Approach to Developing a Decision Support System for Well Interventions Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silich, V. A.; Savelev, A. O.; Isaev, A. N.

    2016-04-01

    The paper contains aspects of developing a decision support systems aimed for well interventions planning within the process of oil production engineering. The specific approach described by authors is based on system analysis methods and object model for system design. Declared number of problem-decision principles as follows: the principle of consolidated information area, the principle of integrated control, the principle of development process transparency. Also observed a set of models (class model, object model, attribute interdependence model, component model, coordination model) specified for designing decision support system for well intervention planning.

  20. The Aeronautical Data Link: Decision Framework for Architecture Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, A. Terry; Goode, Plesent W.

    2003-01-01

    A decision analytic approach that develops optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different airspace operations functions has previously been developed. The approach, premised on a formal taxonomic classification that correlates data link performance with operations requirements, information requirements, and implementing technologies, provides a coherent methodology for data link architectural analysis from top-down and bottom-up perspectives. This paper follows the previous research by providing more specific approaches for mapping and transitioning between the lower levels of the decision framework. The goal of the architectural analysis methodology is to assess the impact of specific architecture configurations and behaviors on the efficiency, capacity, and safety of operations. This necessarily involves understanding the various capabilities, system level performance issues and performance and interface concepts related to the conceptual purpose of the architecture and to the underlying data link technologies. Efficient and goal-directed data link architectural network configuration is conditioned on quantifying the risks and uncertainties associated with complex structural interface decisions. Deterministic and stochastic optimal design approaches will be discussed that maximize the effectiveness of architectural designs.

  1. Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coroiu, A. M.

    2015-11-01

    We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk

  2. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  3. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    SciTech Connect

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

  4. Decision Theoretic Analysis of Improving Epidemic Detection

    PubMed Central

    Izadi, Masoumeh T.; Buckeridge, David L.

    2007-01-01

    The potentially catastrophic impact of an epidemic specially those due to bioterrorist attack, makes developing effective detection methods essential for public health. Current detection methods trade off reliability of alarms for early detection of outbreaks. The performance of these methods can be improved by disease-specific modeling techniques that take into account the potential costs and effects of an attack to provide optimal warnings and the cost and effectiveness of interventions. We study this optimization problem in the framework of sequential decision making under uncertainty. Our approach relies on estimating the future benefit of true alarms and the costs of false alarms. Using these quantities it identifies optimal decisions regarding the credibility of outputs from a traditional detection method at each point in time. The key contribution of this paper is to apply Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) on outbreak detection methods for improving alarm function in the case of anthrax. We present empirical evidence illustrating that at a fixed specificity, the performance of detection methods with respect to sensitivity and timeliness is improved significantly by utilizing POMDPs in detection of anthrax attacks. PMID:18693857

  5. The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

    PubMed

    Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

    2016-08-01

    The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. PMID:27026589

  6. Using Decision Analysis to Improve Malaria Control Policy Making

    PubMed Central

    Kramer, Randall; Dickinson, Katherine L.; Anderson, Richard M.; Fowler, Vance G.; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Mutero, Clifford M.; Saterson, Kathryn A.; Wiener, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    Malaria and other vector-borne diseases represent a significant and growing burden in many tropical countries. Successfully addressing these threats will require policies that expand access to and use of existing control methods, such as insecticide-treated bed nets and artemesinin combination therapies for malaria, while weighing the costs and benefits of alternative approaches over time. This paper argues that decision analysis provides a valuable framework for formulating such policies and combating the emergence and re-emergence of malaria and other diseases. We outline five challenges that policy makers and practitioners face in the struggle against malaria, and demonstrate how decision analysis can help to address and overcome these challenges. A prototype decision analysis framework for malaria control in Tanzania is presented, highlighting the key components that a decision support tool should include. Developing and applying such a framework can promote stronger and more effective linkages between research and policy, ultimately helping to reduce the burden of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. PMID:19356821

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    SciTech Connect

    Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

    2003-10-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  8. SANDS - Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Hawkins, L.; He, M.; Ebersole, S.

    2010-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The SANDS project is also investigating the effects of sediment immersed oil from the Deepwater Horizon disaster in April 2010 which has the potential to resurface as a result of tropical storm activity. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support has generated a number of decision support products derived from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments that potentially support

  9. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    PubMed

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise. PMID:26619723

  10. Thermal power systems small power systems applications project. Decision analysis for evaluating and ranking small solar thermal power system technologies. Volume 1: A brief introduction to multiattribute decision analysis. [explanation of multiattribute decision analysis methods used in evaluating alternatives for small powered systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feinberg, A.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The principal concepts of the Keeney and Raiffa approach to multiattribute decision analysis are described. Topics discussed include the concepts of decision alternatives, outcomes, objectives, attributes and their states, attribute utility functions, and the necessary independence properties for the attribute states to be aggregated into a numerical representation of the preferences of the decision maker for the outcomes and decision alternatives.

  11. A systematic approach to embedded biomedical decision making.

    PubMed

    Song, Zhe; Ji, Zhongkai; Ma, Jian-Guo; Sputh, Bernhard; Acharya, U Rajendra; Faust, Oliver

    2012-11-01

    An embedded decision making is a key feature for many biomedical systems. In most cases human life directly depends on correct decisions made by these systems, therefore they have to work reliably. This paper describes how we applied systems engineering principles to design a high performance embedded classification system in a systematic and well structured way. We introduce the structured design approach by discussing requirements capturing, specifications refinement, implementation and testing. Thereby, we follow systems engineering principles and execute each of these processes as formal as possible. The requirements, which motivate the system design, describe an automated decision making system for diagnostic support. These requirements are refined into the implementation of a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm which enables us to integrate automated decision making in embedded systems. With a formal model we establish functionality, stability and reliability of the system. Furthermore, we investigated different parallel processing configurations of this computationally complex algorithm. We found that, by adding SVM processes, an almost linear speedup is possible. Once we established these system properties, we translated the formal model into an implementation. The resulting implementation was tested using XMOS processors with both normal and failure cases, to build up trust in the implementation. Finally, we demonstrated that our parallel implementation achieves the speedup, predicted by the formal model. PMID:22136936

  12. A decision science approach for integrating social science in climate and energy solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Krishnamurti, Tamar; Davis, Alex; Schwartz, Daniel; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2016-06-01

    The social and behavioural sciences are critical for informing climate- and energy-related policies. We describe a decision science approach to applying those sciences. It has three stages: formal analysis of decisions, characterizing how well-informed actors should view them; descriptive research, examining how people actually behave in such circumstances; and interventions, informed by formal analysis and descriptive research, designed to create attractive options and help decision-makers choose among them. Each stage requires collaboration with technical experts (for example, climate scientists, geologists, power systems engineers and regulatory analysts), as well as continuing engagement with decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with examples from our own research in three domains related to mitigating climate change or adapting to its effects: preparing for sea-level rise, adopting smart grid technologies in homes, and investing in energy efficiency for office buildings. The decision science approach can facilitate creating climate- and energy-related policies that are behaviourally informed, realistic and respectful of the people whom they seek to aid.

  13. Training in Decision-making Strategies: An approach to enhance students' competence to deal with socio-scientific issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gresch, Helge; Hasselhorn, Marcus; Bögeholz, Susanne

    2013-10-01

    Dealing with socio-scientific issues in science classes enables students to participate productively in controversial discussions concerning ethical topics, such as sustainable development. In this respect, well-structured decision-making processes are essential for elaborate reasoning. To foster decision-making competence, a computer-based programme was developed that trains secondary school students (grades 11-13) in decision-making strategies. The main research question is: does training students to use these strategies foster decision-making competence? In addition, the influence of meta-decision aids was examined. Students conducted a task analysis to select an appropriate strategy prior to the decision-making process. Hence, the second research question is: does combining decision-making training with a task analysis enhance decision-making competence at a higher rate? To answer these questions, 386 students were tested in a pre-post-follow-up control-group design that included two training groups (decision-making strategies/decision-making strategies combined with a task analysis) and a control group (decision-making with additional ecological information instead of strategic training). An open-ended questionnaire was used to assess decision-making competence in situations related to sustainable development. The decision-making training led to a significant improvement in the post-test and the follow-up, which was administered three months after the training. Long-term effects on the quality of the students' decisions were evident for both training groups. Gains in competence when reflecting upon the decision-making processes of others were found, to a lesser extent, in the training group that received the additional meta-decision training. In conclusion, training in decision-making strategies is a promising approach to deal with socio-scientific issues related to sustainable development.

  14. ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

  15. [Economic studies and decision analysis as tools for decision making].

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Pimentel, Leticia; Silva-Romo, Rodolfo; Wacher-Rodarte, Niels

    2007-01-01

    Management implies decision-making and economics deals with efficiency which means to obtain the best possible results with the available resources, and to compare such results with those that were foreseen. The economic evaluation comprises a set of techniques aimed at comparing resource allocation on alternate courses of action and its consequences. In health care, these results are the overall well-being of the society. This paper summarizes the techniques that are customarily used in economic evaluation, and intends to serve as an introductory text to increasing the ability of the readers to grasp original articles in the field of health economics. PMID:17692169

  16. The Risky Shift in Policy Decision Making: A Comparative Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilpert, B.; And Others

    1976-01-01

    Based on analysis of data on 432 decision-makers from around the world, this study examines the decision-making phenomenon that individuals tend to move toward riskier decisions after group discussion. Findings of the analysis contradicted earlier studies, showing a consistent shift toward greater risk avoidance. Available from Elsevier Scientific…

  17. The approaches for the decision support in case natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyazilov, Evgeny; Chunyaev, Nikita

    2013-04-01

    In spite of using highly automated systems of measurement, collecting, storing, handling, prediction and delivery of information on the marine environment, including natural hazards, the amount of damage from natural phenomena increases. Because information on the marine environment delivered to the industrial facilities not effectively used. To such information pays little attention by individual decision-makers and not always perform preventive measures necessary for reduce and prevent damage. Automation of information support will improve the efficiency management of the marine activities. In Russia develops "The Unified system of the information about World ocean" (ESIMO, http://esimo.ru/), that integrates observation, analysis, prognostic and climate data. Necessary to create tools to automatic selection natural disasters through all integrated data; notification decision-makers about arising natural hazards - software agent; provision of information in a compact form for the decision-makers; assessment of possible damage and costs to the preventive measures; providing information on the impacts of environment on economic facilities and recommendations for decision-making; the use of maps, diagrams, tables for reporting. Tools for automatic selection designed for identification of natural phenomena based on the resources ESIMO and corresponding critical values of the indicators environment. The result of this module will be constantly updated database of critical situations of environment for each object or technological process. To operational notify and provide current information about natural hazards proposes using a software agent that is installed on the computer decision-makers, which is activated in case critical situations and provides a minimum of information. In the event of natural disaster software agent should be able to inform decision-makers about this, providing information on the current situation, and the possibility for more and detailed

  18. Task Analysis: A Top-Down Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harmon, Paul

    1983-01-01

    This approach to task analysis includes descriptions of (1) inputs, outputs, and jobs; (2) flow of materials and decisions between jobs; (3) inputs, major tasks, and outputs of each job; (4) sequence of steps for major tasks; (5) heuristics/algorithms for each sequence step; and (6) information needed to use heuristics algorithms. (EAO)

  19. Factors influencing the decision-making of parental HIV disclosure: a socio-ecological approach

    PubMed Central

    Qiao, Shan; Li, Xiaoming; Zhou, Yuejiao; Shen, Zhiyong; Tang, Zhenzhu; Stanton, Bonita

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Using the socio-ecological approach, the current study aims to identify facilitators and barriers to decision-making regarding parental HIV disclosure or nondisclosure at intrapersonal, interpersonal, and sociocultural levels; and examine the unique contribution of factors at different level of influences to the decision of disclosure or nondisclosure. Design A cross-sectional survey was conducted among people living with HIV in Guangxi, China. A sub-sample of 1254 participants, who had children aged 5–16 years, was included in the data analysis in the current study. Methods Multivariate models using hierarchical logistic regression were employed to assess the association of parental decision regarding HIV disclosure to children with various factors at intrapersonal, interpersonal, and sociocultural levels controlling background characteristics, and detect the level-specific influence on disclosure decision. Results Positive coping with HIV infection and a good parent–child relationship facilitated parental HIV disclosure; whereas high level of resilience and fears of parental HIV disclosure impeded their decisions to talk about HIV status to their children. In addition, the current study recognized specific contribution of multiple ecological levels to parental decisions regarding disclosure to children. Conclusion The socio-ecological model is a promising theoretical framework to guide further studies and interventions related to parental HIV disclosure. Directions for further studies using socio-ecological approach were also discussed. PMID:26049536

  20. Fuzzy Logic Approaches to Multi-Objective Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hardy, Terry L.

    1994-01-01

    Fuzzy logic allows for the quantitative representation of multi-objective decision-making problems which have vague or fuzzy objectives and parameters. As such, fuzzy logic approaches are well-suited to situations where alternatives must be assessed by using criteria that are subjective and of unequal importance. This paper presents an overview of fuzzy logic and provides sample applications from the aerospace industry. Applications include an evaluation of vendor proposals, an analysis of future space vehicle options, and the selection of a future space propulsion system. On the basis of the results provided in this study, fuzzy logic provides a unique perspective on the decision-making process, allowing the evaluator to assess the degree to which each option meets the evaluation criteria. Future decision-making should take full advantage of fuzzy logic methods to complement existing approaches in the selection of alternatives.

  1. Setting the optimal erythrocyte protoporphyrin screening decision threshold for lead poisoning: a decision analytic approach

    SciTech Connect

    DeBaun, M.R.; Sox, H.C. Jr. )

    1991-07-01

    Erythrocyte protoporphyrin (EP) was introduced in the 1970s as an inexpensive screening test for lead poisoning. As greater knowledge of lead poisoning has accumulated, the recommended EP level at which further evaluation for lead poisoning should be initiated has been lowered from greater than or equal to 50 micrograms/dL to greater than or equal to 35 micrograms/dL. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of this EP threshold. A receiver operator characteristic curve was constructed to assess the relationship between the true-positive rate and false-positive rate of EP at various decision thresholds. The receiver operator characteristic curve was constructed with data from the second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1976 to 1980, which included 2673 children 6 years of age or younger who had both blood lead and EP level determinations. Decision analysis was then used to determine the optimal EP decision threshold for detecting a blood lead level greater than or equal to 25 micrograms/dL. The receiver operator characteristic curve demonstrated that EP is a poor predictor of a blood lead level greater than or equal to 25 micrograms/dL. At the currently recommended EP decision threshold of 35 micrograms/dL, the true-positive rates and false-positive rates of EP are 0.23 and 0.04, respectively. As a result of the inadequate performance of EP screening for lead poisoning, when the prevalence of lead poisoning is greater than 8%, there is no EP decision threshold that optimizes the relationship between the cost of screening normal children and the benefit of detecting lead-poisoned children. Erythrocyte protoporphyrin measurement is not sufficiently sensitive to be recommended uniformly as a screening test for lead poisoning.

  2. A Wireless Sensor Network-Based Approach with Decision Support for Monitoring Lake Water Quality.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Chen, Shaoli; Zhu, Xiaomin

    2015-01-01

    Online monitoring and water quality analysis of lakes are urgently needed. A feasible and effective approach is to use a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Lake water environments, like other real world environments, present many changing and unpredictable situations. To ensure flexibility in such an environment, the WSN node has to be prepared to deal with varying situations. This paper presents a WSN self-configuration approach for lake water quality monitoring. The approach is based on the integration of a semantic framework, where a reasoner can make decisions on the configuration of WSN services. We present a WSN ontology and the relevant water quality monitoring context information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment. We also propose a rule-based reasoning engine that is used to conduct decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. To evaluate the approach, we conduct usability experiments and performance benchmarks. PMID:26610496

  3. A Wireless Sensor Network-Based Approach with Decision Support for Monitoring Lake Water Quality

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Chen, Shaoli; Zhu, Xiaomin

    2015-01-01

    Online monitoring and water quality analysis of lakes are urgently needed. A feasible and effective approach is to use a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Lake water environments, like other real world environments, present many changing and unpredictable situations. To ensure flexibility in such an environment, the WSN node has to be prepared to deal with varying situations. This paper presents a WSN self-configuration approach for lake water quality monitoring. The approach is based on the integration of a semantic framework, where a reasoner can make decisions on the configuration of WSN services. We present a WSN ontology and the relevant water quality monitoring context information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment. We also propose a rule-based reasoning engine that is used to conduct decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. To evaluate the approach, we conduct usability experiments and performance benchmarks. PMID:26610496

  4. Cost/Effort Drivers and Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seidel, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Engineering trade study analyses demand consideration of performance, cost and schedule impacts across the spectrum of alternative concepts and in direct reference to product requirements. Prior to detailed design, requirements are too often ill-defined (only goals ) and prone to creep, extending well beyond the Systems Requirements Review. Though lack of engineering design and definitive requirements inhibit the ability to perform detailed cost analyses, affordability trades still comprise the foundation of these future product decisions and must evolve in concert. This presentation excerpts results of the recent NASA subsonic Engine Concept Study for an Advanced Single Aisle Transport to demonstrate an affordability evaluation of performance characteristics and the subsequent impacts on engine architecture decisions. Applying the Process Based Economic Analysis Tool (PBEAT), development cost, production cost, as well as operation and support costs were considered in a traditional weighted ranking of the following system-level figures of merit: mission fuel burn, take-off noise, NOx emissions, and cruise speed. Weighting factors were varied to ascertain the architecture ranking sensitivities to these performance figures of merit with companion cost considerations. A more detailed examination of supersonic variable cycle engine cost is also briefly presented, with observations and recommendations for further refinements.

  5. Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Keiser, K.; Graves, S. J.; Conover, H.; Ebersole, S.

    2009-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The recently awarded Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support will generate decision support products using NASA satellite observations from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments to support resource management, planning, and decision making activities in the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, SANDS will generate decision support products that address the impacts of tropical storms

  6. Entropy Methods For Univariate Distributions in Decision Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbas, Ali E.

    2003-03-01

    One of the most important steps in decision analysis practice is the elicitation of the decision-maker's belief about an uncertainty of interest in the form of a representative probability distribution. However, the probability elicitation process is a task that involves many cognitive and motivational biases. Alternatively, the decision-maker may provide other information about the distribution of interest, such as its moments, and the maximum entropy method can be used to obtain a full distribution subject to the given moment constraints. In practice however, decision makers cannot readily provide moments for the distribution, and are much more comfortable providing information about the fractiles of the distribution of interest or bounds on its cumulative probabilities. In this paper we present a graphical method to determine the maximum entropy distribution between upper and lower probability bounds and provide an interpretation for the shape of the maximum entropy distribution subject to fractile constraints, (FMED). We also discuss the problems with the FMED in that it is discontinuous and flat over each fractile interval. We present a heuristic approximation to a distribution if in addition to its fractiles, we also know it is continuous and work through full examples to illustrate the approach.

  7. Multi-stakeholder decision analysis and comparative risk assessment for reuse-recycle oriented e-waste management strategies: a game theoretic approach.

    PubMed

    Kaushal, Rajendra Kumar; Nema, Arvind K

    2013-09-01

    This article deals with assessment of the potential health risk posed by carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances, namely lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper, chromium (CrVI), zinc, nickel and mercury, present in e-waste. A multi-objective, multi-stakeholder approach based on strategic game theory model has been developed considering cost, as well as human health risk. The trade-off due to cost difference between a hazardous substances-free (HSF) and a hazardous substance (HS)-containing desktop computer, and the risk posed by them at the time of disposal, has been analyzed. The cancer risk due to dust inhalation for workers at a recycling site in Bangalore for Pb, Cr(VI) and Cd was found to be 4, 33 and 101 in 1 million respectively. Pb and Cr(VI) result in a very high risk owing to dust ingestion at slums near the recycling site--175 and 81 in 1 million for children, and 24 and 11 in 1 million for adults respectively. The concentration of Pb at a battery workshop in Mayapuri, Delhi (hazard quotient = 3.178) was found to pose adverse health hazards. The government may impose an appropriate penalty on the land disposal of computer waste and/or may give an incentive to manufacturer for producing HSF computers through, for example, relaxing taxes, but there should be no such incentive for manufacturing HS-containing computers. PMID:23856790

  8. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  9. Using structured decision making to help implement a precautionary approach to endangered species management.

    PubMed

    Gregory, Robin; Long, Graham

    2009-04-01

    Endangered species protection is a significant risk management concern throughout North America. An extensive conceptual literature emphasizes the role to be played by precautionary approaches. Risk managers, typically working in concert with concerned stakeholders, frequently cite the concept as key to their efforts to prevent extinctions. Little has been done, however, to evaluate the multidimensional impacts of precautionary frameworks or to assist in the examination of competing precautionary risk management options as part of an applied risk management decision framework. In this article we describe how decision-aiding techniques can assist in the creation and analysis of alternative precautionary strategies, using the example of a multistakeholder committee charged with protection of endangered Cultus Lake salmon on the Canadian west coast. Although managers were required to adopt a precautionary approach, little attention had been given to how quantitative analyses could be used to help define the concept or to how a precautionary approach might be implemented in the face of difficult economic, social, and biological tradeoffs. We briefly review key steps in a structured decision-making (SDM) process and discuss how this approach was implemented to help bound the management problem, define objectives and performance measures, develop management alternatives, and evaluate their consequences. We highlight the role of strategy tables, employed to help participants identify, alternative management options. We close by noting areas of agreement and disagreement among participants and discuss the implications of decision-focused processes for other precautionary resource management efforts. PMID:19144073

  10. DECISION ANALYSIS OF INCINERATION COSTS IN SUPERFUND SITE REMEDIATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study examines the decision-making process of the remedial design (RD) phase of on-site incineration projects conducted at Superfund sites. Decisions made during RD affect the cost and schedule of remedial action (RA). Decision analysis techniques are used to determine the...

  11. Conflict and Group Decision-Making: A New Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dace, Karen L.

    In the opinion of decision-making scholars, conflict is a natural component of group decision-making. A new direction for conflict and group decision-making theory and research will help dispel the confusion as to the promotive or disruptive nature of disagreement in group decision-making. Conflict literature is replete with descriptions of the…

  12. A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Kidney Transplant Decision.

    PubMed

    Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P; Kaplan, Bruce

    2016-03-01

    A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist health care professionals with decision making tasks. A well-developed CDSS weighs the benefits of therapy versus the cost in terms of loss of quality of life and financial loss and recommends the decision that can be expected to provide maximum overall benefit. This article provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks, such CDSS can help with the often complex decisions involving transplants. First, we review Bayes theorem in the context of medical decision making. Then, we introduce Bayesian networks, which can model probabilistic relationships among many related variables and are based on Bayes theorem. Next, we discuss influence diagrams, which are Bayesian networks augmented with decision and value nodes and which can be used to develop CDSSs that are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of using the Kidney Donor Risk Index as the sole decision tool. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models generalized kidney transplant decisions and show how the influence diagram approach can provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool. PMID:26900809

  13. Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaefer, B.

    1974-01-01

    A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time.

  14. Modelling sustainable development planning: a multicriteria decision conferencing approach.

    PubMed

    Quaddus, M A; Siddique, M A

    2001-09-01

    Development planning is multidimensional in nature. On the one hand, it addresses economic growth, and on the other, it deals with economic development of the whole nation. Sustainable development, on the other hand, emphasizes the need for integration of economics and environment, as well as promoting intra- and intergenerational equity. While the literature deals extensively with the issues of sustainable development, it lacks a prescription of an easy-to-use, yet rigorous, methodology for it. In this paper, we offer a decision conferencing approach to sustainable development planning based on a multicriteria model. The integrated model is presented and applied to a sustainable development planning exercise in a third world country. Sample results are presented and detailed sensitivity analyses show the environmental variables that are of major concern. PMID:11697680

  15. A neuro-expert approach for decision-making in welding environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goel, Vivek

    2000-10-01

    Decision making in welding is very important for achieving a good quality welded joint for the least possible cost. Of particular interest is decision making involving the selection of process, parameters, weld procedure specification, defect analysis and trouble shooting. This research has provided a means of capturing the planning knowledge in a Neuro-Expert System in a form that is capable of learning new information, correcting old information and automating the decision-making process in a welding environment. A strategy is formulated for the representation of knowledge in the form of a neural links and the translation of rules into neural link weights. After training those weights were converted back into rules to find out the inconsistent rules and capture new rules using a new approach. The various job variables affecting the process of welding are identified in detail and a Neuro-Expert system for the selection of process, parameters and weld procedure specification is developed. The neural networks are integrated with an expert system for decision making in welding environment. Apart from providing the initial parameters of welding, the expert system is used to validate the output of the neural network and served as a user-friendly interface for the neural network. Defect Analysis is performed in welding domain by mapping the welding parameters and defect patterns in a neural network. A neural network based approach for representing the knowledge in expert system is utilized for this purpose as the modification and updating of the knowledge was easier.

  16. DAUBERT DECISION APPLIED TO GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Protection of the environment is, in part, dependent on the quality of data used in decision making. Whether the decisions are part of the scientific process or relate to application of the laws governing people and their living conditions, good quality data are required/needed ...

  17. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development.

    PubMed

    Scott, Nicole M; Sera, Maria D; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of "cognitive entropy" were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured "chunking" of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework. PMID:25698915

  18. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development

    PubMed Central

    Scott, Nicole M.; Sera, Maria D.; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P.

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of “cognitive entropy” were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured “chunking” of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework. PMID:25698915

  19. An Integrated Approach to Life Cycle Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chytka, T. M.; Brown, R. W.; Shih, A. T.; Reeves, J. D.; Dempsey, J. A.

    2006-01-01

    Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the evaluation of the impacts that design decisions have on a system and provides a framework for identifying and evaluating design benefits and burdens associated with the life cycles of space transportation systems from a "cradle-to-grave" approach. Sometimes called life cycle assessment, life cycle approach, or "cradle to grave analysis", it represents a rapidly emerging family of tools and techniques designed to be a decision support methodology and aid in the development of sustainable systems. The implementation of a Life Cycle Analysis can vary and may take many forms; from global system-level uncertainty-centered analysis to the assessment of individualized discriminatory metrics. This paper will focus on a proven LCA methodology developed by the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center to quantify and assess key LCA discriminatory metrics, in particular affordability, reliability, maintainability, and operability. This paper will address issues inherent in Life Cycle Analysis including direct impacts, such as system development cost and crew safety, as well as indirect impacts, which often take the form of coupled metrics (i.e., the cost of system unreliability). Since LCA deals with the analysis of space vehicle system conceptual designs, it is imperative to stress that the goal of LCA is not to arrive at the answer but, rather, to provide important inputs to a broader strategic planning process, allowing the managers to make risk-informed decisions, and increase the likelihood of meeting mission success criteria.

  20. An information theoretic approach for generating an aircraft avoidance Markov Decision Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinert, Andrew J.

    Developing a collision avoidance system that can meet safety standards required of commercial aviation is challenging. A dynamic programming approach to collision avoidance has been developed to optimize and generate logics that are robust to the complex dynamics of the national airspace. The current approach represents the aircraft avoidance problem as Markov Decision Processes and independently optimizes a horizontal and vertical maneuver avoidance logics. This is a result of the current memory requirements for each logic, simply combining the logics will result in a significantly larger representation. The "curse of dimensionality" makes it computationally inefficient and unfeasible to optimize this larger representation. However, existing and future collision avoidance systems have mostly defined the decision process by hand. In response, a simulation-based framework was built to better understand how each potential state quantifies the aircraft avoidance problem with regards to safety and operational components. The framework leverages recent advances in signals processing and database, while enabling the highest fidelity analysis of Monte Carlo aircraft encounter simulations to date. This framework enabled the calculation of how well each state of the decision process quantifies the collision risk and the associated memory requirements. Using this analysis, a collision avoidance logic that leverages both horizontal and vertical actions was built and optimized using this simulation based approach.

  1. Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy, & Society

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts....

  2. Decision Analysis for a Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts. ...

  3. A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach for Estimating the Number of Clusters in a Data Set

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Yi; Zhang, Yong; Kou, Gang; Shi, Yong

    2012-01-01

    Determining the number of clusters in a data set is an essential yet difficult step in cluster analysis. Since this task involves more than one criterion, it can be modeled as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. This paper proposes a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM)-based approach to estimate the number of clusters for a given data set. In this approach, MCDM methods consider different numbers of clusters as alternatives and the outputs of any clustering algorithm on validity measures as criteria. The proposed method is examined by an experimental study using three MCDM methods, the well-known clustering algorithm–k-means, ten relative measures, and fifteen public-domain UCI machine learning data sets. The results show that MCDM methods work fairly well in estimating the number of clusters in the data and outperform the ten relative measures considered in the study. PMID:22870181

  4. Factual Approach in Decision Making - the Prerequisite of Success in Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kučerová, Marta; Škůrková Lestyánszka, Katarína

    2013-12-01

    In quality management system as well as in other managerial systems, effective decisions must be always based on the data and information analysis, i.e. based on facts, in accordance with the factual approach principle in quality management. It is therefore necessary to measure and collect the data and information about processes. The article presents the results of a conducted survey, which was focused on application of factual approach in decision making. It also offers suggestions for improvements of application of the principle in business practice. This article was prepared using the research results of VEGA project No. 1/0229/08 "Perspectives of the quality management development in relation to the requirements of market in the Slovak Republic".

  5. Multicriteria decision approaches to support sustainable drainage options for the treatment of highway and urban runoff.

    PubMed

    Ellis, J B; Deutsch, J-C; Mouchel, J-M; Scholes, L; Revitt, M D

    2004-12-01

    The control and treatment of urban and highway runoff involves a variety of stakeholders in the selection of sustainable drainage systems (SUDS) as the design process needs to consider not only water quantity but also water quality and amenity. Thus, technical, environmental/ecological, social/community and economic cost factors become prime potential sustainability criteria in terms of assessing long-term, cost-effective drainage options. The paper develops a multicriteria analysis methodology for the evaluation and accreditation of SUDS structures within the context of an overall decision-support framework. Approaches independently developed in the UK and France are outlined with the common multicriteria structures defining generic performance criteria together with supporting benchmark standards and exclusion thresholds. A French case study is presented to illustrate the approach and to highlight the inherent constraints and subjectivity embedded in the decision-making process. PMID:15504512

  6. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and

  7. A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Personalized Kidney Transplant Decision

    PubMed Central

    Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P.; Kaplan, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    To provide personalized medicine, we not only must determine the treatments and other decisions most likely to be effective for a patient, but also consider the patient’s tradeoff between possible benefits of therapy versus possible loss of quality of life. There are numerous studies indicating that various treatments can negatively affect quality of life. Even if we have all information available for a given patient, it is an arduous task to amass the information to reach a decision that maximizes the utility of the decision to the patient. A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist healthcare professionals with decision making tasks. By utilizing emerging large datasets, we hold promise for developing CDSSs that can predict how treatments and other decisions can affect outcomes. However, we need to go beyond that; namely our CDSS needs to account for the extent to which these decisions can affect quality of life. This manuscript provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. Such CDSSs are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of the Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) as a decision support tool, and we discuss several difficulties with this index. Most importantly, the KDRI does not provide a measure of the expected quality of life if the kidney is accepted versus the expected quality of life if the patient stays on dialysis. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models the kidney transplant decision, and show how the influence diagram approach can resolve these difficulties and provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool. PMID:26900809

  8. The prediction of breast cancer biopsy outcomes using two CAD approaches that both emphasize an intelligible decision process

    SciTech Connect

    Elter, M.; Schulz-Wendtland, R.; Wittenberg, T.

    2007-11-15

    Mammography is the most effective method for breast cancer screening available today. However, the low positive predictive value of breast biopsy resulting from mammogram interpretation leads to approximately 70% unnecessary biopsies with benign outcomes. To reduce the high number of unnecessary breast biopsies, several computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems have been proposed in the last several years. These systems help physicians in their decision to perform a breast biopsy on a suspicious lesion seen in a mammogram or to perform a short term follow-up examination instead. We present two novel CAD approaches that both emphasize an intelligible decision process to predict breast biopsy outcomes from BI-RADS findings. An intelligible reasoning process is an important requirement for the acceptance of CAD systems by physicians. The first approach induces a global model based on decison-tree learning. The second approach is based on case-based reasoning and applies an entropic similarity measure. We have evaluated the performance of both CAD approaches on two large publicly available mammography reference databases using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, bootstrap sampling, and the ANOVA statistical significance test. Both approaches outperform the diagnosis decisions of the physicians. Hence, both systems have the potential to reduce the number of unnecessary breast biopsies in clinical practice. A comparison of the performance of the proposed decision tree and CBR approaches with a state of the art approach based on artificial neural networks (ANN) shows that the CBR approach performs slightly better than the ANN approach, which in turn results in slightly better performance than the decision-tree approach. The differences are statistically significant (p value <0.001). On 2100 masses extracted from the DDSM database, the CRB approach for example resulted in an area under the ROC curve of A(z)=0.89{+-}0.01, the decision-tree approach in A(z)=0

  9. Using explicit decision rules to manage issues of justice, risk, and ethics in decision analysis: when is it not rational to maximize expected utility?

    PubMed

    Deber, R B; Goel, V

    1990-01-01

    Concepts of justice, risk, and ethics can be merged with decision analysis by requiring the analyst to specify explicity a decision rule or sequence of rules. Decision rules are categorized by whether they consider: 1) aspects of outcome distributions beyond central tendencies; 2) probabilities as well as utilities of outcomes; and 3) means as well as ends. This formulation suggests that distribution-based decision rules could address both risk (for an individual) and justice (for the population). Rational choice under risk if choices are one-time only (vs. repeated events) or if one branch contains unlikely but disastrous outcomes might ignore probability information. Incorporating risk attitude into decision rules rather than utilities could facilitate use of multiattribute approaches to measuring outcomes. Certain ethical concerns could be addressed by prior specification of rules for allowing particular branches. Examples, including selection of polio vaccine strategies, are discussed, and theoretical and practical implications of a decision rule approach noted. PMID:2196412

  10. Towards a controlled sensitivity analysis of model development decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Martyn; Nijssen, Bart

    2016-04-01

    The current generation of hydrologic models have followed a myriad of different development paths, making it difficult for the community to test underlying hypotheses and identify a clear path to model improvement. Model comparison studies have been undertaken to explore model differences, but these studies have not been able to meaningfully attribute inter-model differences in predictive ability to individual model components because there are often too many structural and implementation differences among the models considered. As a consequence, model comparison studies to date have provided limited insight into the causes of differences in model behavior, and model development has often relied on the inspiration and experience of individual modelers rather than a systematic analysis of model shortcomings. This presentation will discuss a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling to enable controlled and systematic analysis of multiple model representations (hypotheses) of hydrologic processes and scaling behavior. Our approach, which we term the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA), formulates a general set of conservation equations, providing the flexibility to experiment with different spatial representations, different flux parameterizations, different model parameter values, and different time stepping schemes. We will discuss the use of SUMMA to systematically analyze different model development decisions, focusing on both analysis of simulations for intensively instrumented research watersheds as well as simulations across a global dataset of FLUXNET sites. The intent of the presentation is to demonstrate how the systematic analysis of model shortcomings can help identify model weaknesses and inform future model development priorities.

  11. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    PubMed

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  12. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  13. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Jalal; North, Nicola; Ashton, Toni

    2016-01-01

    Background: Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Methods: Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules) within the decentralised services. Results: Fiji’s centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. Conclusion: The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji’s deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited. PMID:26927588

  14. A Computational Approach to Characterizing the Impact of Social Influence on Individuals’ Vaccination Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Shang; Liu, Jiming

    2013-01-01

    In modeling individuals vaccination decision making, existing studies have typically used the payoff-based (e.g., game-theoretical) approaches that evaluate the risks and benefits of vaccination. In reality, whether an individual takes vaccine or not is also influenced by the decisions of others, i.e., due to the impact of social influence. In this regard, we present a dual-perspective view on individuals decision making that incorporates both the cost analysis of vaccination and the impact of social influence. In doing so, we consider a group of individuals making their vaccination decisions by both minimizing the associated costs and evaluating the decisions of others. We apply social impact theory (SIT) to characterize the impact of social influence with respect to individuals interaction relationships. By doing so, we propose a novel modeling framework that integrates an extended SIT-based characterization of social influence with a game-theoretical analysis of cost minimization. We consider the scenario of voluntary vaccination against an influenza-like disease through a series of simulations. We investigate the steady state of individuals’ decision making, and thus, assess the impact of social influence by evaluating the coverage of vaccination for infectious diseases control. Our simulation results suggest that individuals high conformity to social influence will increase the vaccination coverage if the cost of vaccination is low, and conversely, will decrease it if the cost is high. Interestingly, if individuals are social followers, the resulting vaccination coverage would converge to a certain level, depending on individuals’ initial level of vaccination willingness rather than the associated costs. We conclude that social influence will have an impact on the control of an infectious disease as they can affect the vaccination coverage. In this respect, our work can provide a means for modeling the impact of social influence as well as for estimating

  15. Depression: a decision-theoretic analysis.

    PubMed

    Huys, Quentin J M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Dayan, Peter

    2015-07-01

    The manifold symptoms of depression are common and often transient features of healthy life that are likely to be adaptive in difficult circumstances. It is when these symptoms enter a seemingly self-propelling spiral that the maladaptive features of a disorder emerge. We examine this malignant transformation from the perspective of the computational neuroscience of decision making, investigating how dysfunction of the brain's mechanisms of evaluation might lie at its heart. We start by considering the behavioral implications of pessimistic evaluations of decision variables. We then provide a selective review of work suggesting how such pessimism might arise via specific failures of the mechanisms of evaluation or state estimation. Finally, we analyze ways that miscalibration between the subject and environment may be self-perpetuating. We employ the formal framework of Bayesian decision theory as a foundation for this study, showing how most of the problems arise from one of its broad algorithmic facets, namely model-based reasoning. PMID:25705929

  16. An automated approach to the design of decision tree classifiers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Argentiero, P.; Chin, R.; Beaudet, P.

    1982-01-01

    An automated technique is presented for designing effective decision tree classifiers predicated only on a priori class statistics. The procedure relies on linear feature extractions and Bayes table look-up decision rules. Associated error matrices are computed and utilized to provide an optimal design of the decision tree at each so-called 'node'. A by-product of this procedure is a simple algorithm for computing the global probability of correct classification assuming the statistical independence of the decision rules. Attention is given to a more precise definition of decision tree classification, the mathematical details on the technique for automated decision tree design, and an example of a simple application of the procedure using class statistics acquired from an actual Landsat scene.

  17. New approaches for real time decision support systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hair, D. Charles; Pickslay, Kent

    1994-01-01

    NCCOSC RDT&E Division (NRaD) is conducting research into ways of improving decision support systems (DSS) that are used in tactical Navy decision making situations. The research has focused on the incorporation of findings about naturalistic decision-making processes into the design of the DSS. As part of that research, two computer tools were developed that model the two primary naturalistic decision-making strategies used by Navy experts in tactical settings. Current work is exploring how best to incorporate the information produced by those tools into an existing simulation of current Navy decision support systems. This work has implications for any applications involving the need to make decisions under time constraints, based on incomplete or ambiguous data.

  18. A Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A.; Egeghy, Peter P.; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A.

    2013-01-01

    The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical’s life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

  19. A decision analytic approach to exposure-based chemical prioritization.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A; Egeghy, Peter P; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A

    2013-01-01

    The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical's life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

  20. Improving "At-Action" Decision-Making in Team Sports through a Holistic Coaching Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Light, Richard L.; Harvey, Stephen; Mouchet, Alain

    2014-01-01

    This article draws on Game Sense pedagogy and complex learning theory (CLT) to make suggestions for improving decision-making ability in team sports by adopting a holistic approach to coaching with a focus on decision-making "at-action". It emphasizes the complexity of decision-making and the need to focus on the game as a whole entity,…

  1. Significant Labor Decisions--An Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Polhemus, Graig E.

    1977-01-01

    Major labor cases decided during 1976 did not project a clear or simple path for further Constitutional and statutory interpretation, but the year's labor decisions did reveal a new willingness on the part of the U.S. Supreme Court to depart from earlier views of Constitutional law. (JT)

  2. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    PubMed

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making. PMID:26797229

  3. A Decision Theory Approach to College Resource Allocation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baldwin, Charles W.

    Current budgeting techniques are reviewed in relation to their application to higher education, including (1) incremental budgeting, where decisions are based primarily upon former levels of expenditures, (2) zero-based budgeting, involving the establishment and ranking of "decision packages", (3) Planning and Programming Budgeting System (PPBS),…

  4. Impact of proximity-adjusted preferences on rank-order stability in geographical multicriteria decision analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Jankowski, Piotr

    2012-04-01

    This paper presents a new approach to deriving preferences assigned to evaluation criteria in geographical multicriteria decision analysis. In this approach, the preferences, expressed by numeric weights, are adjusted by distance measures derived from the explicit consideration of a locational structure. The structure is given by locations of decision options and high importance reference objects. The approach is demonstrated on the example of a house selection case study in San Diego, California. The results show that proximity-adjusted preferences for the evaluation criteria can alter significantly the rank order of decision options. Consequently, the explicit modeling of spatial preference variability may be needed in order to better account for decision-maker's preferences.

  5. A decision-analytic approach to the optimal allocation of resources for endangered species consultation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Shelley, Kevin J.; Morey, Steve; Chan, Jeffrey; LaTier, Andrea; Scafidi, Carolyn; Crouse, Deborah T.; Runge, Michael C.

    2011-01-01

    The resources available to support conservation work, whether time or money, are limited. Decision makers need methods to help them identify the optimal allocation of limited resources to meet conservation goals, and decision analysis is uniquely suited to assist with the development of such methods. In recent years, a number of case studies have been described that examine optimal conservation decisions under fiscal constraints; here we develop methods to look at other types of constraints, including limited staff and regulatory deadlines. In the US, Section Seven consultation, an important component of protection under the federal Endangered Species Act, requires that federal agencies overseeing projects consult with federal biologists to avoid jeopardizing species. A benefit of consultation is negotiation of project modifications that lessen impacts on species, so staff time allocated to consultation supports conservation. However, some offices have experienced declining staff, potentially reducing the efficacy of consultation. This is true of the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Washington Fish and Wildlife Office (WFWO) and its consultation work on federally-threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). To improve effectiveness, WFWO managers needed a tool to help allocate this work to maximize conservation benefits. We used a decision-analytic approach to score projects based on the value of staff time investment, and then identified an optimal decision rule for how scored projects would be allocated across bins, where projects in different bins received different time investments. We found that, given current staff, the optimal decision rule placed 80% of informal consultations (those where expected effects are beneficial, insignificant, or discountable) in a short bin where they would be completed without negotiating changes. The remaining 20% would be placed in a long bin, warranting an investment of seven days, including time for negotiation. For formal

  6. Probabilistic seasonal Forecasts to deterministic Farm Leve Decisions: Innovative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and vulnerability are major challenges in ensuring household food security. Climate information services have the potential to cushion rural households from extreme climate risks. However, most the probabilistic nature of climate information products is not easily understood by majority of smallholder farmers. Despite the probabilistic nature, climate information have proved to be a valuable climate risk adaptation strategy at the farm level. This calls for innovative ways to help farmers understand and apply climate information services to inform their farm level decisions. The study endeavored to co-design and test appropriate innovation systems for climate information services uptake and scale up necessary for achieving climate risk development. In addition it also determined the conditions necessary to support the effective performance of the proposed innovation system. Data and information sources included systematic literature review, secondary sources, government statistics, focused group discussions, household surveys and semi-structured interviews. Data wasanalyzed using both quantitative and qualitative data analysis techniques. Quantitative data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Qualitative data was analyzed using qualitative techniques, which involved establishing the categories and themes, relationships/patterns and conclusions in line with the study objectives. Sustainable livelihood, reduced household poverty and climate change resilience were the impact that resulted from the study.

  7. Using Cluster Analysis to Examine Husband-Wife Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonds-Raacke, Jennifer M.

    2006-01-01

    Cluster analysis has a rich history in many disciplines and although cluster analysis has been used in clinical psychology to identify types of disorders, its use in other areas of psychology has been less popular. The purpose of the current experiments was to use cluster analysis to investigate husband-wife decision making. Cluster analysis was…

  8. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: PUBLISHED REPORT

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL-CIN-1351A Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. EPA/600/R-01/104 (NTIS PB2002-102119). Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often ...

  9. Resilience thinking and a decision-analytic approach to conservation: strange bedfellows or essential partners?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Fred A.; Williams, Byron K.; Nichols, James D.

    2013-01-01

    There has been some tendency to view decision science and resilience theory as opposing approaches, or at least as contending perspectives, for natural resource management. Resilience proponents have been especially critical of optimization in decision science, at least for those cases where it is focused on the aggressive pursuit of efficiency. In general, optimization of resource systems is held to reduce spatial, temporal, or organizational heterogeneity that would otherwise limit efficiency, leading to homogenization of a system and making it less able to cope with unexpected changes or disturbances. For their part, decision analysts have been critical of resilience proponents for not providing much practical advice to decision makers. We believe a key source of tension between resilience thinking and application of decision science is the pursuit of efficiency in the latter (i.e., choosing the “best” management action or strategy option to maximize productivity of one or few resource components), vs. a desire in the former to keep options open (i.e., maintaining and enhancing diversity). It seems obvious, however, that with managed natural systems, there must be a principle by which to guide decision making, which at a minimumallows for a comparison of projected outcomes associated with decision alternatives. This is true even if the primary concern of decision making is the preservation of system resilience. We describe how a careful framing of conservation problems, especially in terms of management objectives and predictive models, can help reduce the purported tension between resiliencethinking and decision analysis. In particular, objective setting in conservation problems needs to be more attuned to the dynamics of ecological systems and to the possibility of deep uncertainties that underlie the risk of unintended, if not irreversible, outcomes. Resilience thinking also leads to the suggestion that model development should focus more on process

  10. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    SciTech Connect

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  11. Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach.

    PubMed

    Ortega-Campos, Elena; García-García, Juan; Gil-Fenoy, Maria José; Zaldívar-Basurto, Flor

    2016-01-01

    Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members. PMID:27611313

  12. SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND DECISION ASSISTANCE (SADA) TRAINING COURSE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  13. A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Autonomous Planetary Rover Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zilberstein, Shlomo

    2004-01-01

    The report discusses the: Decentralized Control of Markov Decision Processes. Study the complexity of decentralized control of Markov decision processes, and develop algorithms for finding optimal control policies. Scheduling Contract Algorithms. Develop an optimal method for scheduling runs of a contract anytime algorithm (one that takes the deadline as input) in situations where the deadline is unknown, multiple problem instances must be solved, and a multi-processor machine is available. Planetary Rover Control as a Markov Decision Process.Use the Markov decision process framework to formalize and solve problems in planetary rover control. Adaptive Peer Selection. Use reinforcement learning to maximize the expected down-load speed for a client in a peer-to-peer file sharing system.

  14. Thinking styles and decision making: A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Wendy J; Fletcher, Jennifer M; Marks, Anthony D G; Hine, Donald W

    2016-03-01

    This meta-analysis examined whether tendencies to use reflective and intuitive thinking styles predicted decision performance (normatively correct responding) and decision experience (e.g., speed, enjoyment) on a range of decision-making tasks. A pooled sample of 17,704 participants (Mage = 25 years) from 89 samples produced small but significant weighted average effects for reflection on performance (r = .11) and experience (r = .14). Intuition was negatively associated with performance (r = -.09) but positively associated with experience (r = .06). Moderation analyses using 499 effect sizes revealed heterogeneity across task-theory match/mismatch, task type, description-based versus experience-based decisions, time pressure, age, and measure type. Effects of both thinking styles were strongest when the task matched the theoretical strengths of the thinking style (up to r = .29). Specific tasks that produced the largest thinking style effects (up to r = .35) were also consistent with system characteristics. Time pressure weakened the effects of reflection, but not intuition, on performance. Effect sizes for reflection on performance were largest for individuals aged either 12 to 18 years or 25+ (up to r = .18), and the effects of both reflection and intuition on experience were largest for adults aged 25+ (up to r = .27). Overall, our results indicate that associations between thinking styles and decision outcomes are context dependent. To improve decision performance and experience, decision architects and educators should carefully consider both individual differences in the decision maker and the nature of the decision task. PMID:26436538

  15. The application of decision analysis to life support research and technology development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ballin, Mark G.

    1994-01-01

    Applied research and technology development is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Decision making regarding which technologies to advance and what resources to devote to them is a challenging but essential task. In the application of life support technology to future manned space flight, new technology concepts typically are characterized by nonexistent data and rough approximations of technology performance, uncertain future flight program needs, and a complex, time-intensive process to develop technology to a flight-ready status. Decision analysis is a quantitative, logic-based discipline that imposes formalism and structure to complex problems. It also accounts for the limits of knowledge that may be available at the time a decision is needed. The utility of decision analysis to life support technology R & D was evaluated by applying it to two case studies. The methodology was found to provide insight that is not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

  16. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  17. A novel anomaly detection approach based on clustering and decision-level fusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, Shengwei; Zhang, Ye

    2015-09-01

    In hyperspectral image processing, anomaly detection is a valuable way of searching targets whose spectral characteristics are not known, and the estimation of background signals is the key procedure. On account of the high dimensionality and complexity of hyperspectral image, dimensionality reduction and background suppression is necessary. In addition, the complementarity of different anomaly detection algorithms can be utilized to improve the effectiveness of anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose a novel method of anomaly detection, which is based on clustering of optimized K-means and decision-level fusion. In our proposed method, pixels with similar features are firstly clustered using an optimized k-means method. Secondly, dimensionality reduction is conducted using principle component analysis to reduce the amount of calculation. Then, to increase the accuracy of detection and decrease the false-alarm ratio, both Reed-Xiaoli (RX) and Kernel RX algorithm are used on processed image. Lastly, a decision-level fusion is processed on the detection results. A simulated hyperspectral image and a real hyperspectral one are both used to evaluate the performance of our proposed method. Visual analysis and quantative analysis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves show that our algorithm can achieve better performance when compared with other classic approaches and state-of-the-art approaches.

  18. A Decision Tree Approach to the Interpretation of Multivariate Statistical Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fok, Lillian Y.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Discusses the nature, power, and limitations of four multivariate techniques: factor analysis, multiple analysis of variance, multiple regression, and multiple discriminant analysis. Shows how decision trees assist in interpreting results. (SK)

  19. Architecture-Level Dependability Analysis of a Medical Decision Support System

    SciTech Connect

    Pullum, Laura L; Symons, Christopher T; Patton, Robert M; Beckerman, Barbara G

    2010-01-01

    Recent advances in techniques such as image analysis, text analysis and machine learning have shown great potential to assist physicians in detecting and diagnosing health issues in patients. In this paper, we describe the approach and findings of an architecture-level dependability analysis for a mammography decision support system that incorporates these techniques. The goal of the research described in this paper is to provide an initial understanding of the dependability issues, particularly the potential failure modes and severity, in order to identify areas of potential high risk. The results will guide design decisions and provide the basis of a dependability and performance evaluation program.

  20. Concurrent approach for evolving compact decision rule sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmelstein, Robert E.; Hammack, Lonnie P.; Lamont, Gary B.

    1999-02-01

    The induction of decision rules from data is important to many disciplines, including artificial intelligence and pattern recognition. To improve the state of the art in this area, we introduced the genetic rule and classifier construction environment (GRaCCE). It was previously shown that GRaCCE consistently evolved decision rule sets from data, which were significantly more compact than those produced by other methods (such as decision tree algorithms). The primary disadvantage of GRaCCe, however, is its relatively poor run-time execution performance. In this paper, a concurrent version of the GRaCCE architecture is introduced, which improves the efficiency of the original algorithm. A prototype of the algorithm is tested on an in- house parallel processor configuration and the results are discussed.

  1. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    SciTech Connect

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  2. Adaptive leadership: a novel approach for family decision making.

    PubMed

    Adams, Judith; Bailey, Donald E; Anderson, Ruth A; Galanos, Anthony N

    2013-03-01

    Family members of intensive care unit (ICU) patients want to be involved in decision making, but they may not be best served by being placed in the position of having to solve problems for which they lack knowledge and skills. This case report presents an exemplar family meeting in the ICU led by a palliative care specialist, with discussion about the strategies used to improve the capacity of the family to make a decision consistent with the patient's goals. These strategies are presented through the lens of Adaptive Leadership. PMID:22663140

  3. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  4. A data mining approach to optimize pellets manufacturing process based on a decision tree algorithm.

    PubMed

    Ronowicz, Joanna; Thommes, Markus; Kleinebudde, Peter; Krysiński, Jerzy

    2015-06-20

    The present study is focused on the thorough analysis of cause-effect relationships between pellet formulation characteristics (pellet composition as well as process parameters) and the selected quality attribute of the final product. The shape using the aspect ratio value expressed the quality of pellets. A data matrix for chemometric analysis consisted of 224 pellet formulations performed by means of eight different active pharmaceutical ingredients and several various excipients, using different extrusion/spheronization process conditions. The data set contained 14 input variables (both formulation and process variables) and one output variable (pellet aspect ratio). A tree regression algorithm consistent with the Quality by Design concept was applied to obtain deeper understanding and knowledge of formulation and process parameters affecting the final pellet sphericity. The clear interpretable set of decision rules were generated. The spehronization speed, spheronization time, number of holes and water content of extrudate have been recognized as the key factors influencing pellet aspect ratio. The most spherical pellets were achieved by using a large number of holes during extrusion, a high spheronizer speed and longer time of spheronization. The described data mining approach enhances knowledge about pelletization process and simultaneously facilitates searching for the optimal process conditions which are necessary to achieve ideal spherical pellets, resulting in good flow characteristics. This data mining approach can be taken into consideration by industrial formulation scientists to support rational decision making in the field of pellets technology. PMID:25835791

  5. Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach with Hesitant Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Juan-juan; Wang, Jian-qiang; Wang, Jing; Chen, Xiao-hong

    2014-01-01

    The definition of hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (HIVIFSs) is developed based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs) and hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs). Then, some operations on HIVIFSs are introduced in detail, and their properties are further discussed. In addition, some hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number aggregation operators based on t-conorms and t-norms are proposed, which can be used to aggregate decision-makers' information in multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. Some valuable proposals of these operators are studied. In particular, based on algebraic and Einstein t-conorms and t-norms, some hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy algebraic aggregation operators and Einstein aggregation operators can be obtained, respectively. Furthermore, an approach of MCDM problems based on the proposed aggregation operators is given using hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed approach, and the study is supported by a sensitivity analysis and a comparison analysis. PMID:24983009

  6. Understanding Decision Making in Teachers' Curriculum Design Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boschman, Ferry; McKenney, Susan; Voogt, Joke

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to reach a better understanding of the intuitive decisions teachers make when designing a technology-rich learning environment. A multiple case-study design was employed to examine what kinds of factors (external priorities, existing orientations or practical concerns) influence design interactions of teams of…

  7. A Comparison of Decision Theoretic Approaches to Adjusting Cut Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Druva-Roush, Cynthia Ann; And Others

    Methods of adjusting cut scores used in placement decisions are examined empirically. Admission and performance variables are used to study alternate methods of adjusting cut scores for placement in standard and accelerated rhetoric courses in a large university setting, with the predicted variable being success or failure as measured by…

  8. What Satisfies Students?: Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision Tree Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora

    2004-01-01

    To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study uses regression and decision tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student-opinion data. A data mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three measures of general satisfaction. The…

  9. Effect of Epistemic Uncertainty Modeling Approach on Decision-Making: Example using Equipment Performance Indicator

    SciTech Connect

    Dana Kelly; Robert Youngblood

    2012-06-01

    Quantitative risk assessments are an integral part of risk-informed regulation of current and future nuclear plants in the U.S. The Bayesian approach to uncertainty, in which both stochastic and epistemic uncertainties are represented with precise probability distributions, is the standard approach to modeling uncertainties in such quantitative risk assessments. However, there are long-standing criticisms of the Bayesian approach to epistemic uncertainty from many perspectives, and a number of alternative approaches have been proposed. Among these alternatives, the most promising (and most rapidly developing) would appear to be the concept of imprecise probability. In this paper, we employ a performance indicator example to focus the discussion. We first give a short overview of the traditional Bayesian paradigm and review some its controversial aspects, for example, issues with so-called noninformative prior distributions. We then discuss how the imprecise probability approach treats these issues and compare it with two other approaches: sensitivity analysis and hierarchical Bayes modeling. We conclude with some practical implications for risk-informed decision making.

  10. Rule-based analysis of pilot decisions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewis, C. M.

    1985-01-01

    The application of the rule identification technique to the analysis of human performance data is proposed. The relation between the language and identifiable consistencies is discussed. The advantages of production system models for the description of complex human behavior are studied. The use of a Monte Carlo significance testing procedure to assure the validity of the rule identification is examined. An example of the rule-based analysis of Palmer's (1983) data is presented.

  11. A Simplified Decision Support Approach for Evaluating Wetlands Ecosystem Services

    EPA Science Inventory

    We will be presenting a simplified approach to evaluating ecosystem services provided by freshwater wetlands restoration. Our approach is based on an existing functional assessment approach developed by Golet and Miller for the State of Rhode Island, and modified by Miller for ap...

  12. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  13. The analysis of the pilot's cognitive and decision processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curry, R. E.

    1975-01-01

    Articles are presented on pilot performance in zero-visibility precision approach, failure detection by pilots during automatic landing, experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches, a multinomial maximum likelihood program, and a random search algorithm for laboratory computers. Other topics discussed include detection of system failures in multi-axis tasks and changes in pilot workload during an instrument landing.

  14. Integrated approach using data mining-based decision tree and object-based image analysis for high-resolution urban mapping of WorldView-2 satellite sensor data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamedianfar, Alireza; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd

    2016-04-01

    This paper integrates decision tree-based data mining (DM) and object-based image analysis (OBIA) to provide a transferable model for the detailed characterization of urban land-cover classes using WorldView-2 (WV-2) satellite images. Many articles have been published on OBIA in recent years based on DM for different applications. However, less attention has been paid to the generation of a transferable model for characterizing detailed urban land cover features. Three subsets of WV-2 images were used in this paper to generate transferable OBIA rule-sets. Many features were explored by using a DM algorithm, which created the classification rules as a decision tree (DT) structure from the first study area. The developed DT algorithm was applied to object-based classifications in the first study area. After this process, we validated the capability and transferability of the classification rules into second and third subsets. Detailed ground truth samples were collected to assess the classification results. The first, second, and third study areas achieved 88%, 85%, and 85% overall accuracies, respectively. Results from the investigation indicate that DM was an efficient method to provide the optimal and transferable classification rules for OBIA, which accelerates the rule-sets creation stage in the OBIA classification domain.

  15. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to approach genomic analysis that

  16. Experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curry, R. E.; Lauber, J. K.; Billings, C. E.

    1975-01-01

    A simulation task is reported which incorporates both kinds of variables, informational and psychological, to successfully study pilot decision making behavior in the laboratory. Preliminary experiments in the measurement of decisions and the inducement of stress in simulated low visibility approaches are described.

  17. Decision analysis as a life support technology assessment capability.

    PubMed

    Ballin, M G

    1995-01-01

    Applied research and technology development is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Decision making regarding which technologies to advance and what resources to devote to them is a challenging but essential task, especially in a resource-constrained environment. In the application of life support technology to future manned space flight, new technology concepts typically are characterized by rough approximations of technology performance, uncertain future flight program needs, and a complex, time-intensive process to develop technology to a flight-ready status. Decision analysis is a quantitative, logic-based discipline that imposes formalism and structure to complex problems confronting a decision maker. It also accounts for the limits of knowledge available at the time a decision is needed. The utility of decision analysis to life support technology R&D was evaluated by applying it to two case studies. The methodology was found to provide useful insight for making technology development resource allocation decisions. PMID:11538570

  18. Employing Conjoint Analysis in Making Compensation Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kienast, Philip; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Describes a method employing conjoint analysis that generates utility/cost ratios for various elements of the compensation package. Its superiority to simple preference surveys is examined. Results of a study of the use of this method in fringe benefit planning in a large financial institution are reported. (Author/JAC)

  19. Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

    PubMed

    Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

    2013-10-01

    Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. PMID:23869557

  20. An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2015-04-01

    The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

  1. Do choosing wisely tools meet criteria for patient decision aids? A descriptive analysis of patient materials

    PubMed Central

    Légaré, France; Hébert, Jessica; Goh, Larissa; Lewis, Krystina B; Leiva Portocarrero, Maria Ester; Robitaille, Hubert; Stacey, Dawn

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Choosing Wisely is a remarkable physician-led campaign to reduce unnecessary or harmful health services. Some of the literature identifies Choosing Wisely as a shared decision-making approach. We evaluated the patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada to determine whether they meet the criteria for shared decision-making tools known as patient decision aids. Design Descriptive analysis of all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials. Data source In May 2015, we selected all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials from its official website. Main outcomes and measures Four team members independently extracted characteristics of the English materials using the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) modified 16-item minimum criteria for qualifying and certifying patient decision aids. The research team discussed discrepancies between data extractors and reached a consensus. Descriptive analysis was conducted. Results Of the 24 patient materials assessed, 12 were about treatments, 11 were about screening and 1 was about prevention. The median score for patient materials using IPDAS criteria was 10/16 (range: 8–11) for screening topics and 6/12 (range: 6–9) for prevention and treatment topics. Commonly missed criteria were stating the decision (21/24 did not), providing balanced information on option benefits/harms (24/24 did not), citing evidence (24/24 did not) and updating policy (24/24 did not). Out of 24 patient materials, only 2 met the 6 IPDAS criteria to qualify as patient decision aids, and neither of these 2 met the 6 certifying criteria. Conclusions Patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada do not meet the IPDAS minimal qualifying or certifying criteria for patient decision aids. Modifications to the Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials would help to ensure that they qualify as patient decision aids and thus as more effective shared decision-making tools. PMID:27566638

  2. Decision analysis framework for evaluating CTBT seismic verification options

    SciTech Connect

    Judd, B.R.; Strait, R.S.; Younker, L.W.

    1986-09-01

    This report describes a decision analysis framework for evaluating seismic verification options for a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In addition to providing policy makers with insights into the relative merits of different options, the framework is intended to assist in formulating and evaluating political decisions - such as responses to evidence of violations - and in setting research priorities related to the options. To provide these broad analytical capabilities to decision makers, the framework incorporates a wide variety of issues. These include seismic monitoring capabilities, evasion possibilities, evidence produced by seismic systems, US response to the evidence, the dependence between US and Soviet decision-making, and the relative values of possible outcomes to the US and the Soviet Union. An added benefit of the framework is its potential use to improve communication about these CTBT verification issues among US experts and decision makers. The framework has been implemented on a portable microcomputer to facilitate this communication through demonstration and rapid evaluation of alternative judgments and policy choices. The report presents the framework and its application in four parts. The first part describes the decision analysis framework and the types of analytical results produced. In the second part, the framework is used to evaluate representative seismic verification options. The third part describes the results of sensitivity analyses that determine the relative importance of the uncertainties or subjective judgments that influence the evaluation of the options. The fourth (and final) part summaries conclusions and presents implications of the sample analytical results for further research and for policy-making related to CTBT verification. The fourth section also describes the next steps in the development and use of the decision analysis framework.

  3. Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.

    PubMed

    Kubbinga, Marlies; Langguth, Peter; Barends, Dirk

    2013-07-01

    This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers. PMID:23280474

  4. Application of a Scientific Ethics Approach to Sport Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zeigler, Earle F.

    1980-01-01

    Application of the scientific method is discussed in relation to ethics in sports. A scientific ethics approach can and should be used in the present and the future development and clarification of values and ethics in sports. The amateur-professional controversy in sports is used as an example to clarify possible uses of this approach. (JN)

  5. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  6. Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

    PubMed

    Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

    2014-08-01

    Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions. PMID:25198609

  7. Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selby, Richard W.; Porter, Adam A.

    1988-01-01

    A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.

  8. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  9. Application of multicriteria decision analysis in health care: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Xiao, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Background The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in health care has become common. However, the literature lacks systematic review trend analysis on the application of MCDA in health care. Aim To systematically identify applications of MCDA to the areas of health care, and to report on publication trends. Methods English language studies published from January 1, 1980 until October 1, 2013 were included. Electronic databases searches were supplemented by searching conference proceedings and relevant journals. Studies considered for inclusion were those using MCDA techniques within the areas of health care, and involving the participation of decision makers. A bibliometric analysis was undertaken to present the publication trends. Results A total of 66 citations met the inclusion criteria. An increase in publication trend occurred in the years 1990, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2012. For the remaining years, the publication trend was either steady or declining. The trend shows that the number of publications reached its highest peak in 2012 (n = 9). Medical Decision Making was the dominant with the highest number published papers (n = 7). The majority of the studies were conducted in the US (n = 29). Medical Decision Making journal published the highest number of articles (n = 7). Analytic Hierarchy Process (n = 33) was the most used MCDA technique. Cancer was the most researched disease topic (n = 12). The most covered area of application was diagnosis and treatment (n = 26). Conclusion The review shows that MCDA has been applied to a broad range of areas in the health care, with the use of a variety of methodological approaches. Further research is needed to develop practice guidelines for the appropriate application and reporting of MCDA methods. PMID:25327341

  10. Hierarchical neural networks for autonomous data analysis and decision making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eberlein, Susan; Yates, Gigi

    1988-01-01

    A neural network based data analysis and decision making system to increase the autonomy of a planetary rover or similar exploratory vehicle is presented. A hierarchical series of neural networks for real time analysis of scientific images is used. The system under development emphasizes analysis of multispectral images by classifier and feature detector neural networks, to provide information on the mineral composition of a scene. A hierarchy of alternating analysis and decision making networks is being developed to allow increasingly fine scale analysis in regions of the image that are potentially important. It is noted that this system will facilitate both the selection of high priorty scientific information for transmission to earth, and the autonomous collection of rocks and soil for sample return.

  11. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

    2016-04-01

    More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

  12. A decision-analysis methodology for consideration of morbidity factors in clinical decision-making.

    PubMed

    Corder, M P; Ellwein, L B

    1984-02-01

    An explicit and systematic means of incorporation of good medical practice plus individual patient preferences (utilities) for pretreatment and treatment options for a serious but curable neoplastic disease has been investigated. The methodology allows important quality-of-life information to be transmitted to patients, with the goal of providing an improved basis for informed consent. The example of Hodgkin's lymphoma staging and treatment selection is used. Individual patient utilities can be expressed and incorporated into a formal decision analysis for those who face the option of selecting MOPP chemotherapy or of pursuing the staging process in order to obtain a chance of being treated appropriately with irradiation. Equal survival probabilities for the two options are assumed, thus the short- and long-term toxicities (quality of Life) are the determinants of the decision. Patient-derived utilities can be developed for the 15 categories of anticipated toxicity. This, together with probabilistic inputs regarding toxicity severity and duration, will yield expected utilities for each of the decision options. Three physicians were studied and evaluated in the role of a patient. The physicians' toxicity preferences were different and because of this the management option of choice was different for each. This methodology allows explicit patient preferences to be incorporated into medical decisions without the requirement for detailed patient understanding of testing and/or treatment morbidity frequency and severity. PMID:6546469

  13. Decision analysis in the clinical neurosciences: a systematic review of the literature.

    PubMed

    Dippel, D W; Habbema, J D

    1995-12-01

    Clinical decision analysis can be a useful scientific tool for individual patient management, for planning of clinical research and for reaching consensus about clinical problems. We systematically reviewed the decision analytic studies in the clinical neurosciences that were published between 1975 and July 1994. All studies were assessed on aspects of clinical applicability: presence of case and context description, completeness of the analysed strategies from a clinical point of view, extendibility of the analyses to different patient profiles, and up-to-date-ness. Fifty-nine decision analyses of twenty-eight different clinical problems were identified. Twenty-eight analyses were based on the theory of subjective expected utility, twelve on cost-effectiveness analysis. Four studies used ROC analysis, and fifteen were risk-, or risk-benefit analyses. At least six studies could have been improved by more elaborately disclosing the context of the clinical problem that was addressed. In eleven studies, the effect of different, yet plausible assumptions was not explored, and in eighteen studies the reader was not informed how to extend the results of the analysis to patients with (slightly) different clinical characterisitics. All studies had, by nature, the potential to promote insight into the clinical problem and focus the discussion on clinically important aspects, and gave clinically useful advice. We conclude that clinical decision analysis, as an explicit, quantitative approach to uncertainty in decision making in the clinical neurosciences will fulfill a growing need in the near future. PMID:24283779

  14. A Novel Approach on Designing Augmented Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Using Fuzzified Decision Trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I.

    This paper proposes a new methodology for designing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps using crisp decision trees that have been fuzzified. Fuzzy cognitive map is a knowledge-based technique that works as an artificial cognitive network inheriting the main aspects of cognitive maps and artificial neural networks. Decision trees, in the other hand, are well known intelligent techniques that extract rules from both symbolic and numeric data. Fuzzy theoretical techniques are used to fuzzify crisp decision trees in order to soften decision boundaries at decision nodes inherent in this type of trees. Comparisons between crisp decision trees and the fuzzified decision trees suggest that the later fuzzy tree is significantly more robust and produces a more balanced decision making. The approach proposed in this paper could incorporate any type of fuzzy decision trees. Through this methodology, new linguistic weights were determined in FCM model, thus producing augmented FCM tool. The framework is consisted of a new fuzzy algorithm to generate linguistic weights that describe the cause-effect relationships among the concepts of the FCM model, from induced fuzzy decision trees.

  15. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    SciTech Connect

    Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2007-02-15

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  16. A simulation approach to decision making in IT service strategy.

    PubMed

    Orta, Elena; Ruiz, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    We propose to use simulation modeling to support decision making in IT service strategy scope. Our main contribution is a simulation model that helps service providers analyze the consequences of changes in both the service capacity assigned to their customers and the tendency of service requests received on the fulfillment of a business rule associated with the strategic goal of customer satisfaction. This business rule is set in the SLAs that service provider and its customers agree to, which determine the maximum percentage of service requests that are permitted to be abandoned because they have exceeded the waiting time allowed. To illustrate the use and applications of the model, we include some of the experiments conducted and describe our conclusions. PMID:24790583

  17. A Simulation Approach to Decision Making in IT Service Strategy

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    We propose to use simulation modeling to support decision making in IT service strategy scope. Our main contribution is a simulation model that helps service providers analyze the consequences of changes in both the service capacity assigned to their customers and the tendency of service requests received on the fulfillment of a business rule associated with the strategic goal of customer satisfaction. This business rule is set in the SLAs that service provider and its customers agree to, which determine the maximum percentage of service requests that are permitted to be abandoned because they have exceeded the waiting time allowed. To illustrate the use and applications of the model, we include some of the experiments conducted and describe our conclusions. PMID:24790583

  18. Annotated bibliography on decision analysis with applications to project management

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J.M.; Bryson, M.C.

    1984-02-01

    The results of an extensive literature survey on decision analysis, with specific application to problems in research and development project management, are summarized in bibliographic form. Approximately 215 references are organized by subject matter and also summarized and annotated (several lines per reference) in a separate listing.

  19. Philosophical Foundations for Curriculum Decision: A Reflective Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belbase, Shashidhar

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the author's curriculum experiences under different philosophical, epistemological and theoretical backdrops. The analysis of different perspectives bridges epistemological and philosophical/theoretical lenses to my understanding of curriculum and different curricular decisions. This praxeological experience as a student and…

  20. A critical narrative analysis of shared decision-making in acute inpatient mental health care.

    PubMed

    Stacey, Gemma; Felton, Anne; Morgan, Alastair; Stickley, Theo; Willis, Martin; Diamond, Bob; Houghton, Philip; Johnson, Beverley; Dumenya, John

    2016-01-01

    Shared decision-making (SDM) is a high priority in healthcare policy and is complementary to the recovery philosophy in mental health care. This agenda has been operationalised within the Values-Based Practice (VBP) framework, which offers a theoretical and practical model to promote democratic interprofessional approaches to decision-making. However, these are limited by a lack of recognition of the implications of power implicit within the mental health system. This study considers issues of power within the context of decision-making and examines to what extent decisions about patients' care on acute in-patient wards are perceived to be shared. Focus groups were conducted with 46 mental health professionals, service users, and carers. The data were analysed using the framework of critical narrative analysis (CNA). The findings of the study suggested each group constructed different identity positions, which placed them as inside or outside of the decision-making process. This reflected their view of themselves as best placed to influence a decision on behalf of the service user. In conclusion, the discourse of VBP and SDM needs to take account of how differentials of power and the positioning of speakers affect the context in which decisions take place. PMID:26833106

  1. Comparing Drools and ontology reasoning approaches for telecardiology decision support.

    PubMed

    Van Hille, Pascal; Jacques, Julie; Taillard, Julien; Rosier, Arnaud; Delerue, David; Burgun, Anita; Dameron, Olivier

    2012-01-01

    Implantable cardioverter defibrillators can generate numerous alerts. Automatically classifying these alerts according to their severity hinges on the CHA2DS2VASc score. It requires some reasoning capabilities for interpreting the patient's data. We compared two approaches for implementing the reasoning module. One is based on the Drools engine, and the other is based on semantic web formalisms. Both were valid approaches with correct performances. For a broader domain, their limitations are the number and complexity of Drools rules and the performances of ontology-based reasoning, which suggests using the ontology for automatically generating a part of the Drools rules. PMID:22874200

  2. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    over time. They are part of the Dutch adaptive planning approach Adaptive Delta Management, executed and develop by the Dutch Delta program. Both decision scaling and adaptation pathways have been piloted in studies worldwide. The objective of CRIDA is to mainstream effective climate adaptation for professional water managers. The CRIDA publication, due in april 2016, follows the generic water design planning design cycle. At each step, CRIDA describes stepwise guidance for incorporating climate robustness: problem definition, stress test, alternatives formulation and recommendation, evaluation and selection. In the presentation the origin, goal, steps and practical tools available at each step of CRIDA will be explained. In two other abstracts ("Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region" by Gilroy et al., "The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia, by Kucharski et al.), the application of CRIDA to cases is explained

  3. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  4. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  5. Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E; Harper, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure. PMID:23252451

  6. Exposure Models for the Prior Distribution in Bayesian Decision Analysis for Occupational Hygiene Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E.; Harper, Martin

    2015-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure. PMID:23252451

  7. Embracing Excellence: A Positive Approach to Ethical Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hinz, Lisa D.

    2011-01-01

    Ethics courses may provoke fear and uncertainty in art therapy students and practitioners if taught from a risk management perspective, which focuses on reducing therapist exposure to risk and avoiding harm to clients. In contrast, a positive ethical approach fosters empowerment, embraces limits, and enhances trust between art therapists and their…

  8. A Simplified Decision Support Approach for Evaluating Wetlands Ecosystem Services

    EPA Science Inventory

    State-level managers and restoration advocates have expressed a desire for approaches that address wetlands services and benefits for two purposes: to demonstrate the benefits of money budgeted for restoration, and to compare proposals when awarding restoration funds for specific...

  9. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: JOURNAL ARTICLE

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL-CIN-1351 Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. Risk Analysis 600/R/01/104, Available: on internet, www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/Pubs/600R01104, [NET]. 03/07/2001 D...

  10. A Decision Theoretic Approach to Evaluate Radiation Detection Algorithms

    SciTech Connect

    Nobles, Mallory A.; Sego, Landon H.; Cooley, Scott K.; Gosink, Luke J.; Anderson, Richard M.; Hays, Spencer E.; Tardiff, Mark F.

    2013-07-01

    There are a variety of sensor systems deployed at U.S. border crossings and ports of entry that scan for illicit nuclear material. In this work, we develop a framework for comparing the performance of detection algorithms that interpret the output of these scans and determine when secondary screening is needed. We optimize each algorithm to minimize its risk, or expected loss. We measure an algorithm’s risk by considering its performance over a sample, the probability distribution of threat sources, and the consequence of detection errors. While it is common to optimize algorithms by fixing one error rate and minimizing another, our framework allows one to simultaneously consider multiple types of detection errors. Our framework is flexible and easily adapted to many different assumptions regarding the probability of a vehicle containing illicit material, and the relative consequences of a false positive and false negative errors. Our methods can therefore inform decision makers of the algorithm family and parameter values which best reduce the threat from illicit nuclear material, given their understanding of the environment at any point in time. To illustrate the applicability of our methods, in this paper, we compare the risk from two families of detection algorithms and discuss the policy implications of our results.

  11. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  12. BUBBLES: an Automated Decision Support System for Final Approach Controllers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chi, Zhizang

    1990-01-01

    With the assumptions that an explicit schedule exists for landings (and takeoffs) at each runway, that each aircraft has declared an IAS for final approach and will be obligated to fly it as accurately as possible, and that there is a continuous estimate of average windspeed on approach, the objective was to provide automated cues to assist controllers in the spacing of landing aircraft. The cues have two characteristics. First, they are adaptive to estimation errors in position and speed by the radar tracking process and piloting errors in the execution of turns and commanded speed reductions. Second, the cues are responsive to the desires of the human controller. Several diagrams are used to help explain the system.

  13. How a Venture Capitalist Approaches an Investment Decision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colbert, Daniel

    2012-02-01

    In this talk, I will provide a high-level overview of the venture capital history, structure, process and approaches to investing in early-stage companies. I will discuss what VCs look for, and share some dos and don'ts for entrepreneurs looking for venture funding. I will close with a description of the Tatarstand CleanTech Fund, and some examples of deals we invested in and passed over and why.

  14. Improving the Process of Career Decision Making: An Action Research Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenbank, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: This study adopts an action research approach with the aim of improving the process of career decision making among undergraduates in a business school at a "new" university in the UK. Design/methodology/approach: The study utilised unfreezing techniques, multiple case studies in conjunction with the principle of analogical encoding, and…

  15. Assessing the Benefits of Wetland Restoration: A Rapid Benefit Indicators Approach for Decision Makers

    EPA Science Inventory

    This guide presents the Rapid Benefits Indicators (RBI) Approach, a rapid process for assessing the social benefits of ecosystem restoration. Created for those who conduct, advocate for, or support restoration, the RBI approach consists of five steps: (1) Describe the decision co...

  16. A new tool for analysis of cleanup criteria decisions.

    PubMed

    Klemic, Gladys A; Bailey, Paul; Elcock, Deborah

    2003-08-01

    Radionuclides and other hazardous materials resulting from processes used in nuclear weapons production contaminate soil, groundwater, and buildings around the United States. Cleanup criteria for environmental contaminants are agreed on prior to remediation and underpin the scope and legacy of the cleanup process. Analysis of cleanup criteria can be relevant for future agreements and may also provide insight into a complex decision making process where science and policy issues converge. An Internet accessible database has been established to summarize cleanup criteria and related factors involved in U.S. Department of Energy remediation decisions. This paper reports on a new user interface for the database that is designed to integrate related information into graphic displays and tables with interactive features that allow exploratory data analysis of cleanup criteria. Analysis of 137Cs in surface soil is presented as an example. PMID:12865746

  17. Investigating Habitat Value in Support of Contaminant Remediation Decisions: Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Peterson, Mark J; Welsh, Christopher John Edward; Druckenbrod, Daniel L; Ryon, Michael G; Smith, John G; Hargrove, William Walter; Giffen, Neil R; Roy, W Kelly; Quarles III, Harry Dewitt

    2008-01-01

    Habitat valuation methods are most often developed and used to prioritize candidate lands for conservation. In this study the intent of habitat valuation was to inform the decision-making process for remediation of chemical contaminants on specific lands or surface water bodies. Methods were developed to summarize dimensions of habitat value for six representative aquatic and terrestrial contaminated sites at the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) on the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. Several general valuation metrics were developed for three broad categories: site use by groups of organisms, site rarity, and use value added from spatial context. Examples of use value metrics are taxa richness, a direct measure of number of species that inhabit an area, complexity of habitat structure, an indirect measure of potential number of species that may use the area, and land use designation, a measure of the length of time that the area will be available for use. Measures of rarity included presence of rare species or communities. Examples of metrics for habitat use value added from spatial context included similarity or complementarity of neighboring habitat patches and presence of habitat corridors. More specific metrics were developed for groups of organisms in contaminated streams, ponds, and terrestrial ecosystems. For each of these metrics, cutoff values for high, medium, and low habitat value were suggested, based on available information on distributions of organisms and landscape features, as well as habitat use information. A companion paper describes the implementation of these habitat valuation metrics and scoring criteria in the remedial investigation for ETTP.

  18. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    PubMed

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs. PMID:22191941

  19. An engineering approach to modelling, decision support and control for sustainable systems.

    PubMed

    Day, W; Audsley, E; Frost, A R

    2008-02-12

    Engineering research and development contributes to the advance of sustainable agriculture both through innovative methods to manage and control processes, and through quantitative understanding of the operation of practical agricultural systems using decision models. This paper describes how an engineering approach, drawing on mathematical models of systems and processes, contributes new methods that support decision making at all levels from strategy and planning to tactics and real-time control. The ability to describe the system or process by a simple and robust mathematical model is critical, and the outputs range from guidance to policy makers on strategic decisions relating to land use, through intelligent decision support to farmers and on to real-time engineering control of specific processes. Precision in decision making leads to decreased use of inputs, less environmental emissions and enhanced profitability-all essential to sustainable systems. PMID:17656345

  20. Using the fuzzy majority approach for GIS-based multicriteria group decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boroushaki, Soheil; Malczewski, Jacek

    2010-03-01

    This paper is concerned with developing a framework for GIS-based multicriteria group decision-making using the fuzzy majority approach. The procedure for solving a spatial group decision-making problem involves two stages. First, each decision-maker solves the problem individually. Second, the individual solutions are aggregated to obtain a group solution. The first stage is operationalized by a linguistic quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging (OWA) procedure to create individual decision-maker's solution maps. Then the individual maps are combined using the fuzzy majority procedure to generate the group solution map which synthesizes the majority of the decision-makers' preferences. The paper provides an illustrative example of the fuzzy majority method for a land suitability problem. It also demonstrates the implementation of the framework within the ArcGIS environment.

  1. Decerns: A framework for multi-criteria decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Yatsalo, Boris; Didenko, Vladimir; Gritsyuk, Sergey; Sullivan, Terry

    2015-02-27

    A new framework, Decerns, for multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of a wide range of practical problems on risk management is introduced. Decerns framework contains a library of modules that are the basis for two scalable systems: DecernsMCDA for analysis of multicriteria problems, and DecernsSDSS for multicriteria analysis of spatial options. DecernsMCDA includes well known MCDA methods and original methods for uncertainty treatment based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy numbers. As a result, these MCDA methods are described along with a case study on analysis of multicriteria location problem.

  2. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  3. Decision aid tools to support women's decision making in pregnancy and birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Dugas, Marylène; Shorten, Allison; Dubé, Eric; Wassef, Maggy; Bujold, Emmanuel; Chaillet, Nils

    2012-06-01

    Support for a model of shared medical decision making, where women and their care providers discuss risks and benefits of their different options, reveal their preferences, and jointly make a decision, is a growing expectation in obstetric care. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of different decision aid tools compared to regular care for women facing several options in the specific field of obstetric care. We included published studies about interventions designed to aid mothers' decision making and provide information about obstetrical treatment or screening options. Following a search of electronic databases for articles published in English and French from 1994 to 2010, we found ten studies that met the inclusion criteria. In this systematic review and meta-analysis we found that all decision aid tools, except for Decision Trees, facilitated significant increases in knowledge. The Computer-based Information Tool, the Decision Analysis Tools, Individual Counseling and Group Counseling intervention presented significant results in reducing anxiety levels. The Decision Analysis Tools and the Computer-based Information tool were associated with a reduction in levels of decisional conflict. The Decision Analysis Tool was the only tool that presented evidence of an impact on the final choice and final outcome. Decision aid tools can assist health professionals to provide information and counseling about choices during pregnancy and support women in shared decision making. The choice of a specific tool should depend on resources available to support their use as well as the specific decisions being faced by women, their health care setting and providers. PMID:22475401

  4. Accelerating Policy Decisions to Adopt Haemophilus influenzae Type b Vaccine: A Global, Multivariable Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Shearer, Jessica C.; Stack, Meghan L.; Richmond, Marcie R.; Bear, Allyson P.; Hajjeh, Rana A.; Bishai, David M.

    2010-01-01

    Background Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). Methods and Findings Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18–0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33–0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00–1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. Conclusions This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20305714

  5. Peering through a dirty window: A Bayesian approach to making mine detection decisions from noisy data

    SciTech Connect

    Kercel, Stephen W.

    1998-10-11

    For several reasons, Bayesian parameter estimation is superior to other methods for extracting features of a weak signal from noise. Since it exploits prior knowledge, the analysis begins from a more advantageous starting point than other methods. Also, since ''nuisance parameters'' can be dropped out of the Bayesian analysis, the description of the model need not be as complete as is necessary for such methods as matched filtering. In the limit for perfectly random noise and a perfect description of the model, the signal-to-noise ratio improves as the square root of the number of samples in the data. Even with the imperfections of real-world data, Bayesian approaches this ideal limit of performance more closely than other methods. A major unsolved problem in landmine detection is the fusion of data from multiple sensor types. Bayesian data fusion is only beginning to be explored as a solution to the problem. In single sensor processes Bayesian analysis can sense multiple parameters from the data stream of the one sensor. It does so by computing a joint probability density function of a set of parameter values from the sensor output. However, there is no inherent requirement that the information must come from a single sensor. If multiple sensors are applied to a single process, where several different parameters are implicit in each sensor output data stream, the joint probability density function of all the parameters of interest can be computed in exactly the same manner as the single sensor case. Thus, it is just as practical to base decisions on multiple sensor outputs as it is for single sensors. This should provide a practical way to combine the outputs of dissimilar sensors, such as ground penetrating radar and electromagnetic induction devices, producing a better detection decision than could be provided by either sensor alone.

  6. A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Zhu, Xiaomin; Chen, Shaoli

    2016-01-01

    Research on smart homes (SHs) has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate. PMID:27527170

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    SciTech Connect

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  8. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlensinger, Adam M.

    2012-01-01

    Modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios use error-correction techniques that approach Shannon s theoretical limit of performance. The authors describe the benefit of closed-loop measurements for a receiver when paired with a counterpart transmitter and representative channel conditions. We also describe a real-time Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in real-time during the development of software defined radios.

  9. Decision Analysis Tool to Compare Energy Pathways for Transportation

    SciTech Connect

    Bloyd, Cary N.; Stork, Kevin

    2011-02-01

    With the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, oil imports, and energy costs, a wide variety of automotive technologies are proposed to replace the traditional gasoline-powered internal combustion engine (g-ICE). A prototype model, Analytica Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM), has been developed using the Analytica decision modeling environment, visualizing the structure as a hierarchy of influence diagrams. The report summarized the FY2010 ATEAM accomplishments.

  10. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-07-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.