Downdraft outflows: climatological potential to influence fire behaviour

Treesearch

Brian E. Potter; Jaime R. Hernandez

2017-01-01

Sudden wind shifts caused by atmospheric gust fronts can lead to firefighter entrapments and fatalities. In this study, we describe the physical processes involved in the related phenomena of convective downdrafts, gust fronts and downbursts. We focus on the dominant process, evaporative cooling in a dry surface layer, as characterised by the measure known as downdraft...

Historical Time Series of Extreme Convective Weather in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurila, T. K.; Mäkelä, A.; Rauhala, J.; Olsson, T.; Jylhä, K.

2016-12-01

Thunderstorms, lightning, tornadoes, downbursts, large hail and heavy precipitation are well-known for their impacts to human life. In the high latitudes as in Finland, these hazardous warm season convective weather events are focused in the summer season, roughly from May to September with peak in the midsummer. The position of Finland between the maritime Atlantic and the continental Asian climate zones makes possible large variability in weather in general which reflects also to the occurrence of severe weather; the hot, moist and extremely unstable air masses sometimes reach Finland and makes possible for the occurrence of extreme and devastating weather events. Compared to lower latitudes, the Finnish climate of severe convection is "moderate" and contains a large year-to-year variation; however, behind the modest annual average is hidden the climate of severe weather events that practically every year cause large economical losses and sometimes even losses of life. Because of the increased vulnerability of our modern society, these episodes have gained recently plenty of interest. During the decades, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has collected observations and damage descriptions of severe weather episodes in Finland; thunderstorm days (1887-present), annual number of lightning flashes (1960-present), tornados (1796-present), large hail (1930-present), heavy rainfall (1922-present). The research findings show e.g. that a severe weather event may occur practically anywhere in the country, although in general the probability of occurrence is smaller in the Northern Finland. This study, funded by the Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety (SAFIR), combines the individual Finnish severe weather time series' and examines their trends, cross-correlation and correlations with other atmospheric parameters. Furthermore, a numerical weather model (HARMONIE) simulation is performed for a historical severe weather case for analyzing how

Forecasting challenges during the severe weather outbreak in Central Europe on 25 June 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Púčik, Tomáš; Francová, Martina; Rýva, David; Kolář, Miroslav; Ronge, Lukáš

2011-06-01

On 25 June 2008, severe thunderstorms caused widespread damage and two fatalities in the Czech Republic. Significant features of the storms included numerous downbursts on a squall line that exhibited a bow echo reflectivity pattern, with sustained wind gusts over 32 m/s at several reporting stations. Moreover, a tornado and several downbursts of F2 intensity occurred within the convective system, collocated with the development of mesovortices within the larger scale bow echo. The extent of the event was sufficient to call it a derecho, as the windstorm had affected Eastern Germany, Southern Poland, Slovakia, Austria and Northern Hungary as well. Ahead of the squall line, several well-organized isolated cells occurred, exhibiting supercellular characteristics, both from a radar and visual perspective. These storms produced large hail and also isolated severe wind gusts. This paper deals mostly with the forecasting challenges that were experienced by the meteorologist on duty during the evolution of this convective scenario. The main challenge of the day was to identify the region that would be most affected by severe convection, especially as the numerical weather prediction failed to anticipate the extent and the progress of the derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Convective storms developed in an environment conducive to severe thunderstorms, with strong wind shear confined mostly to the lower half of the troposphere. These developments also were strongly influenced by mesoscale factors, especially a mesolow centered over Austria and its trough stretching to Eastern Bohemia. The paper demonstrates how careful mesoscale analysis could prove useful in dealing with such convective situations. Remote-sensing methods are also shown to be useful in such situations, especially when they can offer sufficient lead time to issue a warning, which is not always the case.

Synoptic Regulation of The 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, D. M.; Roebber, P. J.; Romero, R.

Despite the relatively successful long-lead-time forecasts of the storms during the 3 May 1999 tornadic outbreak in Oklahoma and Kansas, forecasters were unable to predict with confidence details concerning convective initiation and convective mode. The forecasters identified three synoptic processes they were monitoring for clues as to how the event would unfold. These elements were (a) the absence of strong surface convergence along a dryline in western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle, (b) the presence of a cirrus shield that was hypothesized to limit surface heating, and (c) the arrival into Oklahoma of an upper-level wind-speed maximum (associated with the so- called southern PV anomaly) that was responsible for favorable synoptic-scale ascent and the cirrus shield. The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) is used in forecast mode (using the operational AVN run data to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions) to explore the sen- sitivity of the outbreak to these features using simulations down to 2-km horizontal grid spacing. A 30-h control simulation is compared to the available observations and captures important qualitative characteristics of the event, including convective initi- ation east of the dryline and organization of mesoscale convective systems into long lived, long-track supercells. Additional simulations in which the initial strength of the southern PV anomaly is altered suggest that synoptic regulation of the 3 May 1999 event was imposed by the effects of the southern PV anomaly. The model results in- dicate that: (1) convective initiation in the weakly forced environment was achieved through modification of the existing cap through both surface heating and synoptic- scale ascent associated with the southern PV anomaly; (2) supercellular organization was supported regardless of the strength of the southern PV anomaly, although weak- to-moderate forcing from this feature

Lidar Measurements of Wind, Moisture, and Boundary Layer Evolution in a Dry Line during 1HOP 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demoz, Belay; Evans, Keith; DiGirolamo, Paolo; Wang, Zhe-In; Whiteman, David; Schwemmer, Geary; Gentry, Bruce; Miller, David; Palm, Stephen

2002-01-01

Variability in the convective boundary layer moisture, wind and temperature fields and their importance in the forecasting and understanding of storms have been discussed in the literature. These . variations have been reported in relation to frontal zones, stationary boundaries and during horizontal convective rolls. While all three vary substantially in the convective boundary layer, moisture poses a particular challenge. Moisture or water vapor concentration (expressed as a mass mixing ratio, g/kg), is conserved in all meteorological processes except condensation and evaporation. The water vapor mixing ratio often remains distinct across an air-mass boundary even when the temperature difference is indistinct. These properties make it an ideal choice in visualizing and understanding many of the atmosphere's dynamic features. However, it also presents a unique measurement challenge because water vapor content can vary by more than three orders of magnitude in the troposphere. Characterization of the 3D-distribution of water vapor is also difficult as water vapor observations can suffer from large sampling errors and substantial variability both in the vertical and horizontal. This study presents ground-based measurements of wind, boundary layer structure and water vapor mixing ratio measurements observed by three co-located lidars. This presentation will focus on the evolution and variability of moisture and wind in the boundary layer during a dry line event that occurred on 22 May 2002. These data sets and analyses are unique in that they combine simultaneous measurements of wind, moisture and CBL structure to study the detailed thermal variability in and around clear air updrafts during a dryline event. It will quantify the variation caused by, in and around buoyant plumes and across a dryline. The data presented here were collected in the panhandle of Oklahoma as part of the International H2O Project (MOP-2002), a field experiment that took place over the

Convective Propagation Characteristics Using a Simple Representation of Convective Organization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neale, R. B.; Mapes, B. E.

2016-12-01

Observed equatorial wave propagation is intimately linked to convective organization and it's coupling to features of the larger-scale flow. In this talk we a use simple 4 level model to accommodate vertical modes of a mass flux convection scheme (shallow, mid-level and deep). Two paradigms of convection are used to represent convective processes. One that has only both random (unorganized) diagnosed fluctuations of convective properties and one with organized fluctuations of convective properties that are amplified by previously existing convection and has an explicit moistening impact on the local convecting environment We show a series of model simulations in single-column, 2D and 3D configurations, where the role of convective organization in wave propagation is shown to be fundamental. For the optimal choice of parameters linking organization to local atmospheric state, a broad array of convective wave propagation emerges. Interestingly the key characteristics of propagating modes are the low-level moistening followed by deep convection followed by mature 'large-scale' heating. This organization structure appears to hold firm across timescales from 5-day wave disturbances to MJO-like wave propagation.

Coupled land surface/hydrologic/atmospheric models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pielke, Roger; Steyaert, Lou; Arritt, Ray; Lahtakia, Mercedes; Smith, Chris; Ziegler, Conrad; Soong, Su Tzai; Avissar, Roni; Wetzel, Peter; Sellers, Piers

1993-01-01

The topics covered include the following: prototype land cover characteristics data base for the conterminous United States; surface evapotranspiration effects on cumulus convection and implications for mesoscale models; the use of complex treatment of surface hydrology and thermodynamics within a mesoscale model and some related issues; initialization of soil-water content for regional-scale atmospheric prediction models; impact of surface properties on dryline and MCS evolution; a numerical simulation of heavy precipitation over the complex topography of California; representing mesoscale fluxes induced by landscape discontinuities in global climate models; emphasizing the role of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in surface-air interaction; and problems with modeling and measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon on large scales.

Characterizing convective cold pools: Characterizing Convective Cold Pools

DOE PAGES

Drager, Aryeh J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

2017-05-09

Cold pools produced by convective storms play an important role in Earth's climate system. However, a common framework does not exist for objectively identifying convective cold pools in observations and models. The present study investigates convective cold pools within a simulation of tropical continental convection that uses a cloud-resolving model with a coupled land-surface model. Multiple variables are assessed for their potential in identifying convective cold pool boundaries, and a novel technique is developed and tested for identifying and tracking cold pools in numerical model simulations. This algorithm is based on surface rainfall rates and radial gradients in the densitymore » potential temperature field. The algorithm successfully identifies near-surface cold pool boundaries and is able to distinguish between connected cold pools. Once cold pools have been identified and tracked, composites of cold pool evolution are then constructed, and average cold pool properties are investigated. Wet patches are found to develop within the centers of cold pools where the ground has been soaked with rainwater. These wet patches help to maintain cool surface temperatures and reduce cold pool dissipation, which has implications for the development of subsequent convection.« less

Characterizing convective cold pools: Characterizing Convective Cold Pools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drager, Aryeh J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

Cold pools produced by convective storms play an important role in Earth's climate system. However, a common framework does not exist for objectively identifying convective cold pools in observations and models. The present study investigates convective cold pools within a simulation of tropical continental convection that uses a cloud-resolving model with a coupled land-surface model. Multiple variables are assessed for their potential in identifying convective cold pool boundaries, and a novel technique is developed and tested for identifying and tracking cold pools in numerical model simulations. This algorithm is based on surface rainfall rates and radial gradients in the densitymore » potential temperature field. The algorithm successfully identifies near-surface cold pool boundaries and is able to distinguish between connected cold pools. Once cold pools have been identified and tracked, composites of cold pool evolution are then constructed, and average cold pool properties are investigated. Wet patches are found to develop within the centers of cold pools where the ground has been soaked with rainwater. These wet patches help to maintain cool surface temperatures and reduce cold pool dissipation, which has implications for the development of subsequent convection.« less

Dynamics of Compressible Convection and Thermochemical Mantle Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xi

The Earth's long-wavelength geoid anomalies have long been used to constrain the dynamics and viscosity structure of the mantle in an isochemical, whole-mantle convection model. However, there is strong evidence that the seismically observed large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs) in the lowermost mantle are chemically distinct and denser than the ambient mantle. In this thesis, I investigated how chemically distinct and dense piles influence the geoid. I formulated dynamically self-consistent 3D spherical convection models with realistic mantle viscosity structure which reproduce Earth's dominantly spherical harmonic degree-2 convection. The models revealed a compensation effect of the chemically dense LLSVPs. Next, I formulated instantaneous flow models based on seismic tomography to compute the geoid and constrain mantle viscosity assuming thermochemical convection with the compensation effect. Thermochemical models reconcile the geoid observations. The viscosity structure inverted for thermochemical models is nearly identical to that of whole-mantle models, and both prefer weak transition zone. Our results have implications for mineral physics, seismic tomographic studies, and mantle convection modelling. Another part of this thesis describes analyses of the influence of mantle compressibility on thermal convection in an isoviscous and compressible fluid with infinite Prandtl number. A new formulation of the propagator matrix method is implemented to compute the critical Rayleigh number and the corresponding eigenfunctions for compressible convection. Heat flux and thermal boundary layer properties are quantified in numerical models and scaling laws are developed.

A Similarity Theory for Unsaturated Downdrafts within Clouds.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, Kerry A.

1981-08-01

Recent observations of cumulus clouds strongly support the hypothesis of Squires (1958) that much of the mixing within such clouds is associated with downward propagating currents initiated near their tops. A similarity theory is here proposed to describe the properties of such currents; the use of similarity is defended on the basis of the observed and predicted scale of the downdrafts. The theory suggests that downward-propagating unsaturated thermals are pervasive throughout all but the largest convective clouds and that quasi-steady unsaturated downdraft plumes may exist in the lower portions of cumulonimbi. In addition to providing a reasonable explanation for the microstructure of and liquid water distribution within cumulus clouds, the theory appears to account for certain severe convective phenomena, including down-bursts. A new but related cloud instability is proposed to account for the occurrence of mamma.

Recognition and Control of Low Level Wind Shear.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-04-01

based cumulus 71ouds; (2) "first gusts" (3) large downbursts or " macrobursts " and (4) "microbursts.ŕ The following -: "-: 2...shear hazards associated with thunderstorms - " macrobursts " and "microbursts" - are both in the form of "downbursts" from mature thunderstorms(13:78...The only real difference between large downbursts( macrobursts ), and small ones (microbursts), is their size and duration(13:78). Of all the

Supergranular Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udayashankar, Paniveni

2015-12-01

Observation of the Solar photosphere through high resolution instruments have long indicated that the surface of the Sun is not a tranquil, featureless surface but is beset with a granular appearance. These cellular velocity patterns are a visible manifestation of sub- photospheric convection currents which contribute substantially to the outward transport of energy from the deeper layers, thus maintaining the energy balance of the Sun as a whole.Convection is the chief mode of transport in the outer layers of all cool stars such as the Sun (Noyes,1982). Convection zone of thickness 30% of the Solar radius lies in the sub-photospheric layers of the Sun. Here the opacity is so large that heat flux transport is mainly by convection rather than by photon diffusion. Convection is revealed on four scales. On the scale of 1000 km, it is granulation and on the scale of 8-10 arcsec, it is Mesogranulation. The next hierarchial scale of convection , Supergranules are in the range of 30-40 arcsec. The largest reported manifestation of convection in the Sun are ‘Giant Cells’or ‘Giant Granules’, on a typical length scale of about 108 m.'Supergranules' is caused by the turbulence that extends deep into the convection zone. They have a typical lifetime of about 20hr with spicules marking their boundaries. Gas rises in the centre of the supergranules and then spreads out towards the boundary and descends.Broadly speaking supergranules are characterized by the three parameters namely the length L, the lifetime T and the horizontal flow velocity vh . The interrelationships amongst these parameters can shed light on the underlying convective processes and are in agreement with the Kolmogorov theory of turbulence as applied to large scale solar convection (Krishan et al .2002 ; Paniveni et. al. 2004, 2005, 2010).References:1) Noyes, R.W., The Sun, Our Star (Harvard University Press, 1982)2) Krishan, V., Paniveni U., Singh , J., Srikanth R., 2002, MNRAS, 334/1,2303) Paniveni

Climatology of convective showers dynamics in a convection-permitting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brisson, Erwan; Brendel, Christoph; Ahrens, Bodo

2017-04-01

Convection-permitting simulations have proven their usefulness in improving both the representation of convective rain and the uncertainty range of climate projections. However, most studies have focused on temporal scales greater or equal to convection cell lifetime. A large knowledge gap remains on the model's performance in representing the temporal dynamic of convective showers and how could this temporal dynamic be altered in a warmer climate. In this study, we proposed to fill this gap by analyzing 5-minute convection-permitting model (CPM) outputs. In total, more than 1200 one-day cases are simulated at the resolution of 0.01° using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe. The analysis follows a Lagrangian approach and consists of tracking showers characterized by five-minute intensities greater than 20 mm/hour. The different features of these showers (e.g., temporal evolution, horizontal speed, lifetime) are investigated. These features as modeled by an ERA-Interim forced simulation are evaluated using a radar dataset for the period 2004-2010. The model shows good performance in representing most features observed in the radar dataset. Besides, the observed relation between the temporal evolution of precipitation and temperature are well reproduced by the CPM. In a second modeling experiment, the impact of climate change on convective cell features are analyzed based on an EC-Earth RCP8.5 forced simulation for the period 2071-2100. First results show only minor changes in the temporal structure and size of showers. The increase in convective precipitation found in previous studies seems to be mainly due to an increase in the number of convective cells.

A Generalized Simple Formulation of Convective Adjustment Timescale for Cumulus Convection Parameterizations

EPA Science Inventory

Convective adjustment timescale (τ) for cumulus clouds is one of the most influential parameters controlling parameterized convective precipitation in climate and weather simulation models at global and regional scales. Due to the complex nature of deep convection, a pres...

The Spatial Scale of Convective Aggregation in Cloud Resolving Simulations of Radiative Convective Equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patrizio, Casey

A three-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM) was used to investigate the preferred separation distance between humid, rainy regions formed by convective aggregation in radiative-convective equilibrium without rotation. We performed the simulations with doubly-periodic square domains of widths 768 km, 1536 km and 3072 km over a time period of about 200 days. The simulations in the larger domains were initialized using multiple copies of the results in the small domain at day 90, plus a small perturbation. With all three domain sizes, the simulations evolved to a single statistically steady convective cluster surrounded by a broader region of dry, subsiding air by about day 150. In the largest domain case, however, we found that an additional convective cluster formed when we the simulation was run for an extended period of time. Specifically, a smaller convective cluster formed at around day 185 at a maximum radial distance from the larger cluster and then re-merged with the larger cluster after about 10 days. We explored how the aggregated state was different in each domain case, before the smaller cluster formed in the large domain. In particular, we investigated changes in the radial structure of the aggregated state by calculating profiles for the water, dynamics and radiation as a function of distance from the center of the convective region. Changes in the vertical structure were also investigated by compositing on the convective region and dry, subsiding region at each height. We found that, with increasing domain size, the convective region boundary layer became more buoyant, the convective cores reached deeper into the troposphere, the mesoscale convective updraft became weaker, and the mesoscale convective region spread out. Additionally, as the domain size was increased, conditions in the remote environment became favorable for convection. We describe a physical mechanism for the weakening of the mesoscale convective updraft and associated broadening

Changing Characteristics of convective storms: Results from a continental-scale convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, A. F.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.; Bullock, R.; Rasmussen, R.

2016-12-01

Convective storms are causing extremes such as flooding, landslides, and wind gusts and are related to the development of tornadoes and hail. Convective storms are also the dominant source of summer precipitation in most regions of the Contiguous United States. So far little is known about how convective storms might change due to global warming. This is mainly because of the coarse grid spacing of state-of-the-art climate models that are not able to resolve deep convection explicitly. Instead, coarse resolution models rely on convective parameterization schemes that are a major source of errors and uncertainties in climate change projections. Convection-permitting climate simulations, with grid-spacings smaller than 4 km, show significant improvements in the simulation of convective storms by representing deep convection explicitly. Here we use a pair of 13-year long current and future convection-permitting climate simulations that cover large parts of North America. We use the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) that incorporates the time dimension (MODE-TD) to analyze the model performance in reproducing storm features in the current climate and to investigate their potential future changes. We show that the model is able to accurately reproduce the main characteristics of convective storms in the present climate. The comparison with the future climate simulation shows that convective storms significantly increase in frequency, intensity, and size. Furthermore, they are projected to move slower which could result in a substantial increase in convective storm-related hazards such as flash floods, debris flows, and landslides. Some regions, such as the North Atlantic, might experience a regime shift that leads to significantly stronger storms that are unrepresented in the current climate.

Moist, Double-diffusive convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oishi, Jeffrey; Burns, Keaton; Brown, Ben; Lecoanet, Daniel; Vasil, Geoffrey

2017-11-01

Double-diffusive convection occurs when the competition between stabilizing and a destabilizing buoyancy source is mediated by a difference in the diffusivity of each source. Such convection is important in a wide variety of astrophysical and geophysical flows. However, in giant planets, double-diffusive convection occurs in regions where condensation of important components of the atmosphere occurs. Here, we present preliminary calculations of moist, double-diffusive convection using the Dedalus pseudospectral framework. Using a simple model for phase change, we verify growth rates for moist double diffusive convection from linear calculations and report on preliminary relationships between the ability to form liquid phase and the resulting Nusselt number in nonlinear simulations.

Observing Convective Aggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holloway, Christopher E.; Wing, Allison A.; Bony, Sandrine; Muller, Caroline; Masunaga, Hirohiko; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.; Turner, David D.; Zuidema, Paquita

2017-11-01

Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organization, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observational work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convective organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are presented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network.

A Dynamically Computed Convective Time Scale for the Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme

EPA Science Inventory

Many convective parameterization schemes define a convective adjustment time scale τ as the time allowed for dissipation of convective available potential energy (CAPE). The Kain–Fritsch scheme defines τ based on an estimate of the advective time period for deep con...

The sensitivity of Alpine summer convection to surrogate climate change: an intercomparison between convection-parameterizing and convection-resolving models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Michael; Kröner, Nico; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lüthi, Daniel; Schmidli, Juerg; Stengel, Martin; Stöckli, Reto; Schär, Christoph

2018-04-01

Climate models project an increase in heavy precipitation events in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Important elements of such events are rain showers and thunderstorms, which are poorly represented in models with parameterized convection. In this study, simulations with 12 km horizontal grid spacing (convection-parameterizing model, CPM) and 2 km grid spacing (convection-resolving model, CRM) are employed to investigate the change in the diurnal cycle of convection with warmer climate. For this purpose, simulations of 11 days in June 2007 with a pronounced diurnal cycle of convection are compared with surrogate simulations from the same period. The surrogate climate simulations mimic a future climate with increased temperatures but unchanged relative humidity and similar synoptic-scale circulation. Two temperature scenarios are compared: one with homogeneous warming (HW) using a vertically uniform warming and the other with vertically dependent warming (VW) that enables changes in lapse rate. The two sets of simulations with parameterized and explicit convection exhibit substantial differences, some of which are well known from the literature. These include differences in the timing and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of convection, and the frequency of precipitation with low intensities. The response to climate change is much less studied. We can show that stratification changes have a strong influence on the changes in convection. Precipitation is strongly increasing for HW but decreasing for the VW simulations. For cloud type frequencies, virtually no changes are found for HW, but a substantial reduction in high clouds is found for VW. Further, we can show that the climate change signal strongly depends upon the horizontal resolution. In particular, significant differences between CPM and CRM are found in terms of the radiative feedbacks, with CRM exhibiting a stronger negative feedback in the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget.

Study of Microburst Detection Performance during 1985 in Memphis, Tennessee.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-08-05

downburst into two categories depending on the outbursts’ hori- zontal scale: 1) macroburst - a large downburst with its’ outburst winds extending in... Macroburst . University of Chicago, 122 pp. Merritt, M.W., 1987: Microburst Divergent Outflow Algorithm, Version 2. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Weather Radar

Accident investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laynor, William G. Bud

1987-01-01

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has attributed wind shear as a cause or contributing factor in 15 accidents involving transport-categroy airplanes since 1970. Nine of these were nonfatal; but the other six accounted for 440 lives. Five of the fatal accidents and seven of the nonfatal accidents involved encounters with convective downbursts or microbursts. Of other accidents, two which were nonfatal were encounters with a frontal system shear, and one which was fatal was the result of a terrain induced wind shear. These accidents are discussed with reference to helping the aircraft to avoid the wind shear or if impossible to help the pilot to get through the wind shear.

Convective - TTU

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kosovic, Branko

This dataset includes large-eddy simulation (LES) output from a convective atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) simulation of observations at the SWIFT tower near Lubbock, Texas on July 4, 2012. The dataset was used to assess the LES models for simulation of canonical convective ABL. The dataset can be used for comparison with other LES and computational fluid dynamics model outputs.

Convection in deep vertically shaken particle beds. III. Convection mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klongboonjit, Sakon; Campbell, Charles S.

2008-10-01

Convection in a deep vertically vibrated two-dimensional cell of granular material occurs in the form of counter-rotating cells that move material from the walls to the center of the channel and back again. At least for deep beds, where for much of the cycle, particles are in long duration contact with their neighbors, convection only appears for a short potion of every third vibrational period. That period is delimited by the interaction of three types of internal waves, a compression wave, and two types of expansion waves. Four mechanisms are identified that drive the four basic motions of convection: (1) particles move upward at the center as the result of compression wave, (2) downward at the wall as a combined effect of frictional holdback by the walls and the downward pull of gravity, (3) from the center to the walls along the free surface due to the heaping of the bed generated by the compression wave, and (4) toward the center in the interior of the box to form the bottom of convection rolls due to the relaxation of compressive stresses caused by an expansion wave. Convection only occurs when the conditions are right for all four mechanisms to be active simultaneously.

Long-range transport of Xe-133 emissions under convective and non-convective conditions.

PubMed

Kuśmierczyk-Michulec, J; Krysta, M; Kalinowski, M; Hoffmann, E; Baré, J

2017-09-01

To investigate the transport of xenon emissions, the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) operates an Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) system based on the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model FLEXPART. The air mass trajectory ideally provides a "link" between a radionuclide release and a detection confirmed by radionuclide measurements. This paper investigates the long-range transport of Xe-133 emissions under convective and non-convective conditions, with special emphasis on evaluating the changes in the simulated activity concentration values due to the inclusion of the convective transport in the ATM simulations. For that purpose a series of 14 day forward simulations, with and without convective transport, released daily in the period from 1 January 2011 to 30 June 2013, were analysed. The release point was at the ANSTO facility in Australia. The simulated activity concentrations for the period January 2011 to February 2012 were calculated using the daily emission values provided by the ANSTO facility; outside the aforementioned period, the median daily emission value was used. In the simulations the analysed meteorological input data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used with the spatial resolution of 0.5°. It was found that the long-range transport of Xe-133 emissions under convective conditions, where convection was included in the ATM simulation, led to a small decrease in the activity concentration, as compared to transport without convection. In special cases related to deep convection, the opposite effect was observed. Availability of both daily emission values and measured Xe-133 activity concentration values was an opportunity to validate the simulations. Based on the paired t-test, a 95% confidence interval for the true mean difference between simulations without convective transport and measurements was constructed. It was estimated that the overall uncertainty lies between 0.08 and 0.25 mBq/m 3

Convective penetration in stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratt, Jane; Baraffe, Isabelle; Goffrey, Tom; Constantino, Tom; Popov, M. V.; Walder, Rolf; Folini, Doris; TOFU Collaboration

To interpret the high-quality data produced from recent space-missions it is necessary to study convection under realistic stellar conditions. We describe the multi-dimensional, time implicit, fully compressible, hydrodynamic, implicit large eddy simulation code MUSIC, currently being developed at the University of Exeter. We use MUSIC to study convection during an early stage in the evolution of our sun where the convection zone covers approximately half of the solar radius. This model of the young sun possesses a realistic stratification in density, temperature, and luminosity. We approach convection in a stellar context using extreme value theory and derive a new model for convective penetration, targeted for one-dimensional stellar evolution calculations. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC Grant agreement no. 320478.

Thermocapillary Convection in Liquid Droplets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

The purpose of this video is to understand the effects of surface tension on fluid convection. The fluid system chosen is the liquid sessile droplet to show the importance in single crystal growth, the spray drying and cooling of metal, and the advance droplet radiators of the space stations radiators. A cross sectional representation of a hemispherical liquid droplet under ideal conditions is used to show internal fluid motion. A direct simulation of buoyancy-dominant convection and surface tension-dominant convection is graphically displayed. The clear differences between two mechanisms of fluid transport, thermocapillary convection, and bouncy dominant convection is illustrated.

Natural convection in low-g environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grodzka, P. G.; Bannister, T. C.

1974-01-01

The present state of knowledge in the area of low-g natural convection is reviewed, taking into account a number of experiments conducted during the Apollo 14, 16, and 17 space flights. Convections due to steady low-g accelerations are considered. Steady g-levels result from spacecraft rotation, gravity gradients, solar wind, and solar pressure. Varying g-levels are produced by engine burns, attitude control maneuvers, and onboard vibrations from machinery or astronaut movement. Thermoacoustic convection in a low-g environment is discussed together with g-jitter convection, surface tension-driven convection, electrohydrodynamics under low-g conditions, phase change convection, and approaches for the control and the utilization of convection in space.

How cold pool triggers deep convection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, Jun-Ichi

2014-05-01

The cold pool in the boundary layer is often considered a major triggering mechanism of convection. Here, presented are basic theoretical considerations on this issue. Observations suggest that cold pool-generated convective cells is available for shallow maritime convection (Warner et al. 1979; Zuidema et al. 2012), maritime deep convection (Barnes and Garstang 1982; Addis et al. 1984; Young et al. 1995) and continental deep convection (e.g., Lima and Wilson 2008; Flamant 2009; Lothon et al. 2011; Dione et al. 2013). Moreover, numerical studies appear to suggest that cold pools promote the organization of clouds into larger structures and thereby aid the transition from shallow to deep convection (Khairoutdinov and Randall 2006, Boing et al. 2012, Schlemmer and Hohenegger, 2014). Even a cold--pool parameterization coupled with convection is already proposed (Grandpeix and Lafore 2010: but see also Yano 2012). However, the suggested link between the cold pool and deep convection so far is phenomenological at the best. A specific process that the cold pool leads to a trigger of deep convection must still to be pinned down. Naively, one may imagine that a cold pool lifts up the air at the front as it propagates. Such an uplifting leads to a trigger of convection. However, one must realize that a shift of air along with its propagation does not necessarily lead to an uplifting, and even if it may happen, it would not far exceed a depth of the cold pool itself. Thus, the uplifting can never be anything vigorous. Its thermodynamic characteristics do help much either for inducing convection. The cold-pool air is rather under rapid recovering process before it can induce convection under a simple parcel-lifting argument. The most likely reason that the cold pool may induce convection is its gust winds that may encounter an air mass from an opposite direction. This induces a strong convergence, also leading to a strong uplifting. This is an argument essentially developed

From convection rolls to finger convection in double-diffusive turbulence

PubMed Central

Verzicco, Roberto; Lohse, Detlef

2016-01-01

Double-diffusive convection (DDC), which is the buoyancy-driven flow with fluid density depending on two scalar components, is ubiquitous in many natural and engineering environments. Of great interests are scalars' transfer rate and flow structures. Here we systematically investigate DDC flow between two horizontal plates, driven by an unstable salinity gradient and stabilized by a temperature gradient. Counterintuitively, when increasing the stabilizing temperature gradient, the salinity flux first increases, even though the velocity monotonically decreases, before it finally breaks down to the purely diffusive value. The enhanced salinity transport is traced back to a transition in the overall flow pattern, namely from large-scale convection rolls to well-organized vertically oriented salt fingers. We also show and explain that the unifying theory of thermal convection originally developed by Grossmann and Lohse for Rayleigh–Bénard convection can be directly applied to DDC flow for a wide range of control parameters (Lewis number and density ratio), including those which cover the common values relevant for ocean flows. PMID:26699474

Stochastic Convection Parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teixeira, Joao; Reynolds, Carolyn; Suselj, Kay; Matheou, Georgios

2012-01-01

computational fluid dynamics, radiation, clouds, turbulence, convection, gravity waves, surface interaction, radiation interaction, cloud and aerosol microphysics, complexity (vegetation, biogeochemistry, radiation versus turbulence/convection stochastic approach, non-linearities, Monte Carlo, high resolutions, large-Eddy Simulations, cloud structure, plumes, saturation in tropics, forecasting, parameterizations, stochastic, radiation-clod interaction, hurricane forecasts

Features of the Raleigh Tornadic Storm Based on Analysis of Damage

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

studies have shown that a smaller scale microburst may occur within a larger downburst, or macroburst (Fujita and Wakimoto, 1981, Sinclair et a&, 1988...downburst: microburst and macroburst . SMRP Res. Paper No. 210, Univ. of Chicago, 82 PP. Fujita, T. T., 1989: The Teton-Yellowstone tornado of 21 July 1987

Southern Ocean Convection and tropical telleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2014-12-01

We show that Southern Ocean (SO) temperatures in the latest generation of Earth System Models exhibit two major modes of variation, one driven by deep convection, the other by tropical variability. We perform a CMIP5 model intercomparison to understand why different climate models represent SO variability so differently in long, control simulations. We show that multiyear variability in Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can in turn influence oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropics on short (atmospheric) time-scales. We argue that the strength and pattern of SO-tropical teleconnections depends on the intensity of SO deep convection. Periodic convection in the SO is a feature of most CMIP5 models under preindustrial forcing (deLavergne et al., 2014). Models show a wide distribution in the spatial extent, periodicity and intensity of their SO convection, with some models convecting most of the time, and some showing very little convection. In a highly convective coupled model, we find that multidecadal variability in SO and global SSTs, as well as SO heat storage are driven by Weddell Sea convective variability, with convective decades relatively warm due to the heat released from the deep southern ocean and non-convective decades cold due to the subsurface storage of heat. Furthermore, pulses of SO convection drive SST and sea ice variations, influencing absorbed shortwave and emitted longwave radiation, wind, cloud and precipitation patterns, with climatic implications for the low latitudes via fast atmospheric teleconnections. We suggest that these high-low latitude teleconnection mechanisms are relevant for understanding hiatus decades. Additionally, Southern Ocean deep convection varied significantly during past, natural climate changes such as during the last deglaciation. Weddell Sea open convection was recently weakened, likely as a consequence of anthropogenic forcing and the resulting surface freshening. Our study opens up the

Comparing convective heat fluxes derived from thermodynamics to a radiative-convective model and GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhara, Chirag; Renner, Maik; Kleidon, Axel

2015-04-01

The convective transport of heat and moisture plays a key role in the climate system, but the transport is typically parameterized in models. Here, we aim at the simplest possible physical representation and treat convective heat fluxes as the result of a heat engine. We combine the well-known Carnot limit of this heat engine with the energy balances of the surface-atmosphere system that describe how the temperature difference is affected by convective heat transport, yielding a maximum power limit of convection. This results in a simple analytic expression for convective strength that depends primarily on surface solar absorption. We compare this expression with an idealized grey atmosphere radiative-convective (RC) model as well as Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations at the grid scale. We find that our simple expression as well as the RC model can explain much of the geographic variation of the GCM output, resulting in strong linear correlations among the three approaches. The RC model, however, shows a lower bias than our simple expression. We identify the use of the prescribed convective adjustment in RC-like models as the reason for the lower bias. The strength of our model lies in its ability to capture the geographic variation of convective strength with a parameter-free expression. On the other hand, the comparison with the RC model indicates a method for improving the formulation of radiative transfer in our simple approach. We also find that the latent heat fluxes compare very well among the approaches, as well as their sensitivity to surface warming. What our comparison suggests is that the strength of convection and their sensitivity in the climatic mean can be estimated relatively robustly by rather simple approaches.

Internal Wave Generation by Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lecoanet, Daniel Michael

In nature, it is not unusual to find stably stratified fluid adjacent to convectively unstable fluid. This can occur in the Earth's atmosphere, where the troposphere is convective and the stratosphere is stably stratified; in lakes, where surface solar heating can drive convection above stably stratified fresh water; in the oceans, where geothermal heating can drive convection near the ocean floor, but the water above is stably stratified due to salinity gradients; possible in the Earth's liquid core, where gradients in thermal conductivity and composition diffusivities maybe lead to different layers of stable or unstable liquid metal; and, in stars, as most stars contain at least one convective and at least one radiative (stably stratified) zone. Internal waves propagate in stably stratified fluids. The characterization of the internal waves generated by convection is an open problem in geophysical and astrophysical fluid dynamics. Internal waves can play a dynamically important role via nonlocal transport. Momentum transport by convectively excited internal waves is thought to generate the quasi-biennial oscillation of zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere, an important physical phenomenon used to calibrate global climate models. Angular momentum transport by convectively excited internal waves may play a crucial role in setting the initial rotation rates of neutron stars. In the last year of life of a massive star, convectively excited internal waves may transport even energy to the surface layers to unbind them, launching a wind. In each of these cases, internal waves are able to transport some quantity--momentum, angular momentum, energy--across large, stable buoyancy gradients. Thus, internal waves represent an important, if unusual, transport mechanism. This thesis advances our understanding of internal wave generation by convection. Chapter 2 provides an underlying theoretical framework to study this problem. It describes a detailed calculation of the

Convective scale interaction: Arc cloud lines and the development and evolution of deep convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Purdom, James Francis Whitehurst

1986-01-01

Information is used from satellite data and research aircraft data to provide new insights concerning the mesoscale development and evolution of deep convection in an atmosphere typified by weak synoptic-scale forcing. The importance of convective scale interaction in the development and evolution of deep convection is examined. This interaction is shown to manifest itself as the merger and intersection of thunderstorm outflow boundaries (arc cloud lines) with other convective lines, areas or boundaries. Using geostationary satellite visible and infrared data convective scale interaction is shown to be responsible for over 85 percent of the intense convection over the southeast U.S. by late afternoon, and a majority of that area's afternoon rainfall. The aircraft observations provided valuable information concerning critically important regions of the arc cloud line: (1) the cool outflow region, (2) the density surge line interface region; and (3) the sub-cloud region above the surge line. The observations when analyzed with rapid scan satellite data, helped in defining the arc cloud line's life cycle as 3 evolving stages.

Moisture Vertical Structure, Deep Convective Organization, and Convective Transition in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiro, K. A.; Neelin, J. D.

2017-12-01

Constraining precipitation processes in climate models with observations is crucial to accurately simulating current climate and reducing uncertainties in future projections. Results from the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign (2014-2015) provide evidence that deep convection is strongly controlled by the availability of moisture in the free troposphere over the Amazon, much like over tropical oceans. Entraining plume buoyancy calculations confirm that CWV is a good proxy for the conditional instability of the environment, yet differences in convective onset as a function of CWV exist over land and ocean, as well as seasonally and diurnally over land. This is largely due to variability in the contribution of lower tropospheric humidity to the total column moisture. Boundary layer moisture shows a strong relationship to the onset during the day, which largely disappears during nighttime. Using S-Band radar, these transition statistics are examined separately for unorganized and mesoscale-organized convection, which exhibit sharp increases in probability of occurrence with increasing moisture throughout the column, particularly in the lower free troposphere. Retrievals of vertical velocity from a radar wind profiler indicate updraft velocity and mass flux increasing with height through the lower troposphere. A deep-inflow mixing scheme motivated by this — corresponding to deep inflow of environmental air into a plume that grows with height — provides a weighting of boundary layer and free tropospheric air that yields buoyancies consistent with the observed onset of deep convection across seasons and times of day, across land and ocean sites, and for all convection types. This provides a substantial improvement relative to more traditional constant mixing assumptions, and a dramatic improvement relative to no mixing. Furthermore, it provides relationships that are as strong or stronger for mesoscale-organized convection as for unorganized convection.

Supergranulation, a convective phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udayashankar, Paniveni

2015-08-01

Observation of the Solar photosphere through high resolution instruments have long indicated that the surface of the Sun is not a tranquil, featureless surface but is beset with a granular appearance. These cellular velocity patterns are a visible manifestation of sub- photospheric convection currents which contribute substantially to the outward transport of energy from the deeper layers, thus maintaining the energy balance of the Sun as a whole.Convection is the chief mode of transport in the outer layers of all cool stars such as the Sun (Noyes,1982). Convection zone of thickness 30% of the Solar radius lies in the sub-photospheric layers of the Sun. Convection is revealed on four scales. On the scale of 1000 km, it is granulation and on the scale of 8-10 arcsec, it is Mesogranulation. The next hierarchial scale of convection ,Supergranules are in the range of 30-40 arcsec. The largest reported manifestation of convection in the Sun are ‘Giant Cells’or ‘Giant Granules’, on a typical length scale of about 108 m.'Supergranules' is caused by the turbulence that extends deep into the convection zone. They have a typical lifetime of about 20hr with spicules marking their boundaries. Gas rises in the centre of the supergranules and then spreads out towards the boundary and descends.Broadly speaking supergranules are characterized by the three parameters namely the length L, the lifetime T and the horizontal flow velocity vh . The interrelationships amongst these parameters can shed light on the underlying convective processes and are in agreement with the Kolmogorov theory of turbulence as applied to large scale solar convection (Krishan et al .2002 ; Paniveni et. al. 2004, 2005, 2010).References:1) Noyes, R.W., The Sun, Our Star (Harvard University Press, 1982)2) Krishan, V., Paniveni U., Singh , J., Srikanth R., 2002, MNRAS, 334/1,2303) Paniveni , U., Krishan, V., Singh, J., Srikanth, R., 2004, MNRAS, 347, 1279-12814) Paniveni , U., Krishan, V., Singh, J

A Sub-Cloud Layer Vorticity Budget Analysis for Two Microburst-Producing Storms from Jaws Dual-Doppler Data

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-01-01

1983).p 30- 4’ ENE~q2 3 sub-categories, the macroburst and the microburst. This was to account for the varied length scales of observed downbursts...Thunderstorm. Ph.D. Dissertation, St. Louis University, 225pp. Fujita, T. T., 1985: The Downburst Microburst and Macroburst . University of Chicago Press, 122 pp

Seismic Constraints on Interior Solar Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanasoge, Shravan M.; Duvall, Thomas L.; DeRosa, Marc L.

2010-01-01

We constrain the velocity spectral distribution of global-scale solar convective cells at depth using techniques of local helioseismology. We calibrate the sensitivity of helioseismic waves to large-scale convective cells in the interior by analyzing simulations of waves propagating through a velocity snapshot of global solar convection via methods of time-distance helioseismology. Applying identical analysis techniques to observations of the Sun, we are able to bound from above the magnitudes of solar convective cells as a function of spatial convective scale. We find that convection at a depth of r/R(solar) = 0.95 with spatial extent l < 30, where l is the spherical harmonic degree, comprise weak flow systems, on the order of 15 m/s or less. Convective features deeper than r/R(solar) = 0.95 are more difficult to image due to the rapidly decreasing sensitivity of helioseismic waves.

Convective dynamics - Panel report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carbone, Richard; Foote, G. Brant; Moncrieff, Mitch; Gal-Chen, Tzvi; Cotton, William; Heymsfield, Gerald

1990-01-01

Aspects of highly organized forms of deep convection at midlatitudes are reviewed. Past emphasis in field work and cloud modeling has been directed toward severe weather as evidenced by research on tornadoes, hail, and strong surface winds. A number of specific issues concerning future thrusts, tactics, and techniques in convective dynamics are presented. These subjects include; convective modes and parameterization, global structure and scale interaction, convective energetics, transport studies, anvils and scale interaction, and scale selection. Also discussed are analysis workshops, four-dimensional data assimilation, matching models with observations, network Doppler analyses, mesoscale variability, and high-resolution/high-performance Doppler. It is also noted, that, classical surface measurements and soundings, flight-level research aircraft data, passive satellite data, and traditional photogrammetric studies are examples of datasets that require assimilation and integration.

Concepts of magnetospheric convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vasyliunas, V. M.

1975-01-01

The paper describes the basic theoretical notions of convection applicable to magnetospheres in general and discusses the relative importance of convective and corrotational motions, with particular reference to the comparison of the earth and Jupiter. The basic equations relating the E, B, and J fields and the bulk plasma velocity are given for the three principal regions in magnetosphere dynamics, namely, the central object and its magnetic field, the space surrounding the central object, and the external medium outside the magnetosphere. The notion of driving currents of magnetospheric convection and their closure is explained, while consideration of the added effects of the rotation of the central body completes the basic theoretical picture. Flow topology is examined for the two cases where convection dominates over corotation and vice versa.

Solutal Convection in Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Y.; Wen, B.; DiCarlo, D. A.; Hesse, M. A.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric CO2 is one important component of greenhouse gases, which can greatly affect the temperature of the Earth. There are four trapping mechanisms for CO2sequestration, including structural & stratigraphic trapping, residual trapping, dissolution trapping and mineral trapping. Leakage potential is a serious problem for its storage efficiency, and dissolution trapping is a method that can prevent such leakages effectively. Convective dissolution trapping process can be simplified to an interesting physical problem: in porous media, dissolution can initiate convection, and then its dynamics can be affected by the continuous convection conversely. However, it is difficult to detect whether the convective dissolution may take place, as well as how fast and in what pattern it may take place. Previous studies have established a model and related scaling (Rayleigh number and Sherwood number) to describe this physical problem. To testify this model with a large range of Rayleigh numbers, we conducted a series of convective dissolution experiments in porous media. In addition, this large experimental assembly can allow us to quantify relation between wavenumber of the convective motion and the controlling factors of the system for the first time. The result of our laboratory experiments are revolutionary: On one hand, it shows that previous scaling of the convective dissolution becomes invalid once the permeability is large enough; On the other hand, the relation between wavenumber and Rayleigh number demonstrates an opposite trend against the classic model. According to our experimental results, we propose a new model to describe the solutal convection in porous media, and our model can describe and explain our experimental observations. Also, simulation work has been conducted to confirm our model. In the future, our model and relevant knowledge can be unscaled to industrial applications which are relevant to convective dissolution process.

Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, K. L.; Prein, A. F.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.

2017-11-01

Novel high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the US employing the pseudo-global warming approach are used to investigate changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in a future climate. Two continuous 13-year simulations were conducted using (1) ERA-Interim reanalysis and (2) ERA-Interim reanalysis plus a climate perturbation for the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulations adequately reproduce the observed precipitation diurnal cycle, indicating that they capture organized and propagating convection that most climate models cannot adequately represent. This study shows that weak to moderate convection will decrease and strong convection will increase in frequency in a future climate. Analysis of the thermodynamic environments supporting convection shows that both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increase downstream of the Rockies in a future climate. Previous studies suggest that CAPE will increase in a warming climate, however a corresponding increase in CIN acts as a balancing force to shift the convective population by suppressing weak to moderate convection and provides an environment where CAPE can build to extreme levels that may result in more frequent severe convection. An idealized investigation of fundamental changes in the thermodynamic environment was conducted by shifting a standard atmospheric profile by ± 5 °C. When temperature is increased, both CAPE and CIN increase in magnitude, while the opposite is true for decreased temperatures. Thus, even in the absence of synoptic and mesoscale variations, a warmer climate will provide more CAPE and CIN that will shift the convective population, likely impacting water and energy budgets on Earth.

Introducing Convective Cloud Microphysics to a Deep Convection Parameterization Facilitating Aerosol Indirect Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alapaty, K.; Zhang, G. J.; Song, X.; Kain, J. S.; Herwehe, J. A.

2012-12-01

Short lived pollutants such as aerosols play an important role in modulating not only the radiative balance but also cloud microphysical properties and precipitation rates. In the past, to understand the interactions of aerosols with clouds, several cloud-resolving modeling studies were conducted. These studies indicated that in the presence of anthropogenic aerosols, single-phase deep convection precipitation is reduced or suppressed. On the other hand, anthropogenic aerosol pollution led to enhanced precipitation for mixed-phase deep convective clouds. To date, there have not been many efforts to incorporate such aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in mesoscale models or global models that use parameterization schemes for deep convection. Thus, the objective of this work is to implement a diagnostic cloud microphysical scheme directly into a deep convection parameterization facilitating aerosol indirect effects in the WRF-CMAQ integrated modeling systems. Major research issues addressed in this study are: What is the sensitivity of a deep convection scheme to cloud microphysical processes represented by a bulk double-moment scheme? How close are the simulated cloud water paths as compared to observations? Does increased aerosol pollution lead to increased precipitation for mixed-phase clouds? These research questions are addressed by performing several WRF simulations using the Kain-Fritsch convection parameterization and a diagnostic cloud microphysical scheme. In the first set of simulations (control simulations) the WRF model is used to simulate two scenarios of deep convection over the continental U.S. during two summer periods at 36 km grid resolution. In the second set, these simulations are repeated after incorporating a diagnostic cloud microphysical scheme to study the impacts of inclusion of cloud microphysical processes. Finally, in the third set, aerosol concentrations simulated by the CMAQ modeling system are supplied to the embedded cloud microphysical

Simulating North American mesoscale convective systems with a convection-permitting climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, Andreas F.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Bullock, Randy; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Holland, Greg J.; Clark, Martyn

2017-10-01

Deep convection is a key process in the climate system and the main source of precipitation in the tropics, subtropics, and mid-latitudes during summer. Furthermore, it is related to high impact weather causing floods, hail, tornadoes, landslides, and other hazards. State-of-the-art climate models have to parameterize deep convection due to their coarse grid spacing. These parameterizations are a major source of uncertainty and long-standing model biases. We present a North American scale convection-permitting climate simulation that is able to explicitly simulate deep convection due to its 4-km grid spacing. We apply a feature-tracking algorithm to detect hourly precipitation from Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in the model and compare it with radar-based precipitation estimates east of the US Continental Divide. The simulation is able to capture the main characteristics of the observed MCSs such as their size, precipitation rate, propagation speed, and lifetime within observational uncertainties. In particular, the model is able to produce realistically propagating MCSs, which was a long-standing challenge in climate modeling. However, the MCS frequency is significantly underestimated in the central US during late summer. We discuss the origin of this frequency biases and suggest strategies for model improvements.

LANL - Convective - TTU

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kosovic, Branko

This dataset includes large-eddy simulation (LES) output from a convective atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) simulation of observations at the SWIFT tower near Lubbock, Texas on July 4, 2012. The dataset was used to assess the LES models for simulation of canonical convective ABL. The dataset can be used for comparison with other LES and computational fluid dynamics model outputs.

Convection in containerless processing.

PubMed

Hyers, Robert W; Matson, Douglas M; Kelton, Kenneth F; Rogers, Jan R

2004-11-01

Different containerless processing techniques have different strengths and weaknesses. Applying more than one technique allows various parts of a problem to be solved separately. For two research projects, one on phase selection in steels and the other on nucleation and growth of quasicrystals, a combination of experiments using electrostatic levitation (ESL) and electromagnetic levitation (EML) is appropriate. In both experiments, convection is an important variable. The convective conditions achievable with each method are compared for two very different materials: a low-viscosity, high-temperature stainless steel, and a high-viscosity, low-temperature quasicrystal-forming alloy. It is clear that the techniques are complementary when convection is a parameter to be explored in the experiments. For a number of reasons, including the sample size, temperature, and reactivity, direct measurement of the convective velocity is not feasible. Therefore, we must rely on computation techniques to estimate convection in these experiments. These models are an essential part of almost any microgravity investigation. The methods employed and results obtained for the projects levitation observation of dendrite evolution in steel ternary alloy rapid solidification (LODESTARS) and quasicrystalline undercooled alloys for space investigation (QUASI) are explained.

Convective aggregation in realistic convective-scale simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holloway, Christopher E.

2017-06-01

To investigate the real-world relevance of idealized-model convective self-aggregation, five 15 day cases of real organized convection in the tropics are simulated. These include multiple simulations of each case to test sensitivities of the convective organization and mean states to interactive radiation, interactive surface fluxes, and evaporation of rain. These simulations are compared to self-aggregation seen in the same model configured to run in idealized radiative-convective equilibrium. Analysis of the budget of the spatial variance of column-integrated frozen moist static energy shows that control runs have significant positive contributions to organization from radiation and negative contributions from surface fluxes and transport, similar to idealized runs once they become aggregated. Despite identical lateral boundary conditions for all experiments in each case, systematic differences in mean column water vapor (CWV), CWV distribution shape, and CWV autocorrelation length scale are found between the different sensitivity runs, particularly for those without interactive radiation, showing that there are at least some similarities in sensitivities to these feedbacks in both idealized and realistic simulations (although the organization of precipitation shows less sensitivity to interactive radiation). The magnitudes and signs of these systematic differences are consistent with a rough equilibrium between (1) equalization due to advection from the lateral boundaries and (2) disaggregation due to the absence of interactive radiation, implying disaggregation rates comparable to those in idealized runs with aggregated initial conditions and noninteractive radiation. This points to a plausible similarity in the way that radiation feedbacks maintain aggregated convection in both idealized simulations and the real world.