Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuart, W.D.

1985-01-01

The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes since a.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was the M=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

Earthquakes and faults in southern California (1970-2010)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.3 in southern California (1970–2010). The bathymetry was generated from digital files from the California Department of Fish And Game, Marine Region, Coastal Bathymetry Project. Elevation data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from fourteen Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper scenes collected between 2009 and 2010. Fault data are reproduced with permission from 2006 California Geological Survey and U.S. Geological Survey data. The earthquake data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center.

The Virtual Quake earthquake simulator: a simulation-based forecast of the El Mayor-Cucapah region and evidence of predictability in simulated earthquake sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoder, Mark R.; Schultz, Kasey W.; Heien, Eric M.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Parker, Jay W.; Donnellan, Andrea

2015-12-01

In this manuscript, we introduce a framework for developing earthquake forecasts using Virtual Quake (VQ), the generalized successor to the perhaps better known Virtual California (VC) earthquake simulator. We discuss the basic merits and mechanics of the simulator, and we present several statistics of interest for earthquake forecasting. We also show that, though the system as a whole (in aggregate) behaves quite randomly, (simulated) earthquake sequences limited to specific fault sections exhibit measurable predictability in the form of increasing seismicity precursory to large m > 7 earthquakes. In order to quantify this, we develop an alert-based forecasting metric, and show that it exhibits significant information gain compared to random forecasts. We also discuss the long-standing question of activation versus quiescent type earthquake triggering. We show that VQ exhibits both behaviours separately for independent fault sections; some fault sections exhibit activation type triggering, while others are better characterized by quiescent type triggering. We discuss these aspects of VQ specifically with respect to faults in the Salton Basin and near the El Mayor-Cucapah region in southern California, USA and northern Baja California Norte, Mexico.

Hotspots, Lifelines, and the Safrr Haywired Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratliff, J. L.; Porter, K.

2014-12-01

Though California has experienced many large earthquakes (San Francisco, 1906; Loma Prieta, 1989; Northridge, 1994), the San Francisco Bay Area has not had a damaging earthquake for 25 years. Earthquake risk and surging reliance on smartphones and the Internet to handle everyday tasks raise the question: is an increasingly technology-reliant Bay Area prepared for potential infrastructure impacts caused by a major earthquake? How will a major earthquake on the Hayward Fault affect lifelines (roads, power, water, communication, etc.)? The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) program's Haywired disaster scenario, a hypothetical two-year earthquake sequence triggered by a M7.05 mainshock on the Hayward Fault, addresses these and other questions. We explore four geographic aspects of lifeline damage from earthquakes: (1) geographic lifeline concentrations, (2) areas where lifelines pass through high shaking or potential ground-failure zones, (3) areas with diminished lifeline service demand due to severe building damage, and (4) areas with increased lifeline service demand due to displaced residents and businesses. Potential mainshock lifeline vulnerability and spatial demand changes will be discerned by superimposing earthquake shaking, liquefaction probability, and landslide probability damage thresholds with lifeline concentrations and with large-capacity shelters. Intersecting high hazard levels and lifeline clusters represent potential lifeline susceptibility hotspots. We will also analyze possible temporal vulnerability and demand changes using an aftershock shaking threshold. The results of this analysis will inform regional lifeline resilience initiatives and response and recovery planning, as well as reveal potential redundancies and weaknesses for Bay Area lifelines. Identified spatial and temporal hotspots can provide stakeholders with a reference for possible systemic vulnerability resulting from an earthquake sequence.

The October 1992 Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, J.

1992-01-01

A magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred near Parkfield, California, on October 20, 992, at 05:28 UTC (October 19 at 10:28 p.m. local or Pacific Daylight Time).This moderate shock, interpreted as the potential foreshock of a damaging earthquake on the San Andreas fault, triggered long-standing federal, state and local government plans to issue a public warning of an imminent magnitude 6 earthquake near Parkfield. Although the predicted earthquake did not take place, sophisticated suites of instruments deployed as part of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment recorded valuable data associated with an unusual series of events. this article describes the geological aspects of these events, which occurred near Parkfield in October 1992. The accompnaying article, an edited version of a press conference b Richard Andrews, the Director of the California Office of Emergency Service (OES), describes governmental response to the prediction.   

Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, E.H.; Dawson, T.E.; Felzer, K.R.; Frankel, A.D.; Gupta, V.; Jordan, T.H.; Parsons, T.; Petersen, M.D.; Stein, R.S.; Weldon, R.J.; Wills, C.J.

2009-01-01

The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6.5 ??? M ???7.0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ???6.7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ???7.5 and to 4.5% for M ???8.0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ???8.0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ???6.7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

The southern California uplift and associated earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Castle, R.O.; Bernknopf, R.L.

1996-01-01

Southern California earthquakes ??? M5.5 during the period 1955/01/01-1994/01/17 were concentrated along or adjacent to the south flank of the southern California uplift, as defined both at its culmination and following its partial collapse. Spatial clustering of these earthquakes within three more-or-less distinct groups suggests either gaps along the south flank that were previously filled or are yet to be filled. Nearly all of the indicated earthquakes accompanied or followed partial collapse of the uplift, and seismic activity within this regime seems to have been increasing through at least 1994/01/17. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

A slow earthquake sequence on the San Andreas fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linde, A.T.; Gladwin, M.T.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Gwyther, R.L.; Bilham, R.G.

1996-01-01

EARTHQUAKES typically release stored strain energy on timescales of the order of seconds, limited by the velocity of sound in rock. Over the past 20 years, observations and laboratory experiments have indicated that capture can also occur more slowly, with durations up to hours. Such events may be important in earthquake nucleation and in accounting for the excess of plate convergence over seismic slip in subduction zones. The detection of events with larger timescales requires near-field deformation measurements. In December 1992, two borehole strainmeters close to the San Andreas fault in California recorded a slow strain event of about a week in duration, and we show here that the strain changes were produced by a slow earthquake sequence (equivalent magnitude 4.8) with complexity similar to that of regular earthquakes. The largest earthquakes associated with these slow events were small (local magnitude 3.7) and contributed negligible strain release. The importance of slow earthquakes in the seismogenic process remains an open question, but these observations extend the observed timescale for slow events by two orders of magnitude.

THE GREAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT: Earthquake Science for 22 Million People

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L.; Cox, D.; Perry, S.; Hudnut, K.; Benthien, M.; Bwarie, J.; Vinci, M.; Buchanan, M.; Long, K.; Sinha, S.; Collins, L.

2008-12-01

Earthquake science is being communicated to and used by the 22 million residents of southern California to improve resiliency to future earthquakes through the Great Southern California ShakeOut. The ShakeOut began when the USGS partnered with the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center and many other organizations to bring 300 scientists and engineers together to formulate a comprehensive description of a plausible major earthquake, released in May 2008, as the ShakeOut Scenario, a description of the impacts and consequences of a M7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault (USGS OFR2008-1150). The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. The ShakeOut drill occurred in houses, businesses, and public spaces throughout southern California at 10AM on November 13, 2008, when southern Californians were asked to pretend that the M7.8 scenario earthquake had occurred and to practice actions that could reduce the impact on their lives. Residents, organizations, schools and businesses registered to participate in the drill through www.shakeout.org where they could get accessible information about the scenario earthquake and share ideas for better reparation. As of September 8, 2008, over 2.7 million confirmed participants had been registered. The primary message of the ShakeOut is that what we do now, before a big earthquake, will determine what our lives will be like after. The goal of the ShakeOut has been to change the culture of earthquake preparedness in southern California, making earthquakes a reality that are regularly discussed. This implements the sociological finding that 'milling,' discussing a problem with loved ones, is a prerequisite to taking action. ShakeOut milling is taking place at all levels from individuals and families, to corporations and governments. Actions taken as a result of the ShakeOut include the adoption of earthquake

Discrepancy between earthquake rates implied by historic earthquakes and a consensus geologic source model for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; Cramer, C.H.; Reichle, M.S.; Frankel, A.D.; Hanks, T.C.

2000-01-01

We examine the difference between expected earthquake rates inferred from the historical earthquake catalog and the geologic data that was used to develop the consensus seismic source characterization for the state of California [California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Petersen et al., 1996; Frankel et al., 1996]. On average the historic earthquake catalog and the seismic source model both indicate about one M 6 or greater earthquake per year in the state of California. However, the overall earthquake rates of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) between 6 and 7 in this seismic source model are higher, by at least a factor of 2, than the mean historic earthquake rates for both southern and northern California. The earthquake rate discrepancy results from a seismic source model that includes earthquakes with characteristic (maximum) magnitudes that are primarily between M 6.4 and 7.1. Many of these faults are interpreted to accommodate high strain rates from geologic and geodetic data but have not ruptured in large earthquakes during historic time. Our sensitivity study indicates that the rate differences between magnitudes 6 and 7 can be reduced by adjusting the magnitude-frequency distribution of the source model to reflect more characteristic behavior, by decreasing the moment rate available for seismogenic slip along faults, by increasing the maximum magnitude of the earthquake on a fault, or by decreasing the maximum magnitude of the background seismicity. However, no single parameter can be adjusted, consistent with scientific consensus, to eliminate the earthquake rate discrepancy. Applying a combination of these parametric adjustments yields an alternative earthquake source model that is more compatible with the historic data. The 475-year return period hazard for peak ground and 1-sec spectral acceleration resulting from this alternative source model differs from the hazard resulting from the

Earthquake alarm; operating the seismograph station at the University of California, Berkeley.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stump, B.

1980-01-01

At the University of California seismographic stations, the task of locating and determining magnitudes for both local and distant earthquakes is a continuous one. Teleseisms must be located rapidly so that events that occur in the Pacific can be identified and the Pacific Tsunami Warning System alerted. For great earthquakes anywhere, there is a responsibility to notify public agencies such as the California Office of Emergency Services, the Federal Disaster Assistance Administration, the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, the California Seismic Safety Commission, and the American Red Cross. In the case of damaging local earthquakes, it is necessary to alert also the California Department of Water Resources, California Division of Mines and Geology, U.S Army Corps of Engineers, Federal Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bay Area Rapid Transit. These days, any earthquakes that are felt in northern California cause immediate inquiries from the news media and an interested public. The series of earthquakes that jolted the Livermore area from January 24 to 26 1980, is a good case in point. 

Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

PubMed

Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F

2011-10-04

The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.

Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California

PubMed Central

Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L.; Holliday, James R.; Sachs, Michael K.; Rundle, John B.; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F.

2011-01-01

The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M≥4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M≥4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most “successful” in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts. PMID:21949355

The 1992 Landers earthquake sequence; seismological observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Egill Hauksson,; Jones, Lucile M.; Hutton, Kate; Eberhart-Phillips, Donna

1993-01-01

The (MW6.1, 7.3, 6.2) 1992 Landers earthquakes began on April 23 with the MW6.1 1992 Joshua Tree preshock and form the most substantial earthquake sequence to occur in California in the last 40 years. This sequence ruptured almost 100 km of both surficial and concealed faults and caused aftershocks over an area 100 km wide by 180 km long. The faulting was predominantly strike slip and three main events in the sequence had unilateral rupture to the north away from the San Andreas fault. The MW6.1 Joshua Tree preshock at 33°N58′ and 116°W19′ on 0451 UT April 23 was preceded by a tightly clustered foreshock sequence (M≤4.6) beginning 2 hours before the mainshock and followed by a large aftershock sequence with more than 6000 aftershocks. The aftershocks extended along a northerly trend from about 10 km north of the San Andreas fault, northwest of Indio, to the east-striking Pinto Mountain fault. The Mw7.3 Landers mainshock occurred at 34°N13′ and 116°W26′ at 1158 UT, June 28, 1992, and was preceded for 12 hours by 25 small M≤3 earthquakes at the mainshock epicenter. The distribution of more than 20,000 aftershocks, analyzed in this study, and short-period focal mechanisms illuminate a complex sequence of faulting. The aftershocks extend 60 km to the north of the mainshock epicenter along a system of at least five different surficial faults, and 40 km to the south, crossing the Pinto Mountain fault through the Joshua Tree aftershock zone towards the San Andreas fault near Indio. The rupture initiated in the depth range of 3–6 km, similar to previous M∼5 earthquakes in the region, although the maximum depth of aftershocks is about 15 km. The mainshock focal mechanism showed right-lateral strike-slip faulting with a strike of N10°W on an almost vertical fault. The rupture formed an arclike zone well defined by both surficial faulting and aftershocks, with more westerly faulting to the north. This change in strike is accomplished by jumping across

UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; ,

2015-01-01

With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

Long Period Earthquakes Beneath California's Young and Restless Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitt, A. M.; Dawson, P. B.; Shelly, D. R.; Hill, D. P.; Mangan, M.

2013-12-01

The newly established USGS California Volcano Observatory has the broad responsibility of monitoring and assessing hazards at California's potentially threatening volcanoes, most notably Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, and Lassen Volcanic Center in northern California; and Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, and Mono-Inyo Craters in east-central California. Volcanic eruptions occur in California about as frequently as the largest San Andreas Fault Zone earthquakes-more than ten eruptions have occurred in the last 1,000 years, most recently at Lassen Peak (1666 C.E. and 1914-1917 C.E.) and Mono-Inyo Craters (c. 1700 C.E.). The Long Valley region (Long Valley caldera and Mammoth Mountain) underwent several episodes of heightened unrest over the last three decades, including intense swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, rapid caldera uplift, and hazardous CO2 emissions. Both Medicine Lake and Lassen are subsiding at appreciable rates, and along with Clear Lake, Long Valley Caldera, and Mammoth Mountain, sporadically experience long period (LP) earthquakes related to migration of magmatic or hydrothermal fluids. Worldwide, the last two decades have shown the importance of tracking LP earthquakes beneath young volcanic systems, as they often provide indication of impending unrest or eruption. Herein we document the occurrence of LP earthquakes at several of California's young volcanoes, updating a previous study published in Pitt et al., 2002, SRL. All events were detected and located using data from stations within the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). Event detection was spatially and temporally uneven across the NCSN in the 1980s and 1990s, but additional stations, adoption of the Earthworm processing system, and heightened vigilance by seismologists have improved the catalog over the last decade. LP earthquakes are now relatively well-recorded under Lassen (~150 events since 2000), Clear Lake (~60 events), Mammoth Mountain

Catalog of Oroville, California, earthquakes; June 7, 1975 to July 31, 1976

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mantis, Constance; Lindh, Allan; Savage, William; Marks, Shirley

1979-01-01

On August 1, 1975, at 2020 GMT a magnitude 5.7 (ML) earthquake occurred 15 km south of Oroville, California, in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada. It was preceded by 61 foreshocks that began on June 7, 1975, and was followed by thousands of aftershocks. Several studies have reported locations or analyses of various subsets of the Oroville sequence, including Morrison and others (1975), Savage and others (1975), Lester and others (1975), Toppozada and others (1975), Ryall and others (1975), Bufe and others (1976), Morrison and others (1976), and Lahr and others (1976). In this report arrival time data have been compiled from the original records at several institutions to produce a single catalog of the Oroville sequence from June 7, 1975, through July 31, 1976. This study has four objectives: to compile a list of earthquakes in the Oroville sequence that is as complete as possible above the minimum magnitude threshold of approximately 1.0;to determine accurate and uniform hypocentral coordinates for the earthquakes;to determine reliable and consistent magnitude values for the sequence; andto provide a statistically uniform basis for further investigation of the physical processes involved in the Oroville sequence as revealed by the parameters of the foreshocks and aftershocks.The basis and procedures for the data analysis are described in this report.

Depth dependence of earthquake frequency-magnitude distributions in California: Implications for rupture initiation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mori, J.; Abercrombie, R.E.

1997-01-01

Statistics of earthquakes in California show linear frequency-magnitude relationships in the range of M2.0 to M5.5 for various data sets. Assuming Gutenberg-Richter distributions, there is a systematic decrease in b value with increasing depth of earthquakes. We find consistent results for various data sets from northern and southern California that both include and exclude the larger aftershock sequences. We suggest that at shallow depth (???0 to 6 km) conditions with more heterogeneous material properties and lower lithospheric stress prevail. Rupture initiations are more likely to stop before growing into large earthquakes, producing relatively more smaller earthquakes and consequently higher b values. These ideas help to explain the depth-dependent observations of foreshocks in the western United States. The higher occurrence rate of foreshocks preceding shallow earthquakes can be interpreted in terms of rupture initiations that are stopped before growing into the mainshock. At greater depth (9-15 km), any rupture initiation is more likely to continue growing into a larger event, so there are fewer foreshocks. If one assumes that frequency-magnitude statistics can be used to estimate probabilities of a small rupture initiation growing into a larger earthquake, then a small (M2) rupture initiation at 9 to 12 km depth is 18 times more likely to grow into a M5.5 or larger event, compared to the same small rupture initiation at 0 to 3 km. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

California Earthquake Residual Transportation Capability Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-12-01

This report addresses the ability of transportation facilities in California to survive four postulated earthquakes that are based on historical events. The survival of highways, railroads, ports, airports, and pipelines is investigated following ind...

Revisiting the 1872 Owens Valley, California, Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Hutton, K.

2008-01-01

The 26 March 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is among the largest historical earthquakes in California. The felt area and maximum fault displacements have long been regarded as comparable to, if not greater than, those of the great San Andreas fault earthquakes of 1857 and 1906, but mapped surface ruptures of the latter two events were 2-3 times longer than that inferred for the 1872 rupture. The preferred magnitude estimate of the Owens Valley earthquake has thus been 7.4, based largely on the geological evidence. Reinterpreting macroseismic accounts of the Owens Valley earthquake, we infer generally lower intensity values than those estimated in earlier studies. Nonetheless, as recognized in the early twentieth century, the effects of this earthquake were still generally more dramatic at regional distances than the macroseismic effects from the 1906 earthquake, with light damage to masonry buildings at (nearest-fault) distances as large as 400 km. Macroseismic observations thus suggest a magnitude greater than that of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which appears to be at odds with geological observations. However, while the mapped rupture length of the Owens Valley earthquake is relatively low, the average slip was high. The surface rupture was also complex and extended over multiple fault segments. It was first mapped in detail over a century after the earthquake occurred, and recent evidence suggests it might have been longer than earlier studies indicated. Our preferred magnitude estimate is Mw 7.8-7.9, values that we show are consistent with the geological observations. The results of our study suggest that either the Owens Valley earthquake was larger than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake or that, by virtue of source properties and/or propagation effects, it produced systematically higher ground motions at regional distances. The latter possibility implies that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San

Two examples of earthquake- hazard reduction in southern California.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kockelman, W.J.; Campbell, C.C.

1983-01-01

Because California is seismically active, planners and decisionmakers must try to anticipate earthquake hazards there and, where possible, to reduce the hazards. Geologic and seismologic information provides the basis for the necessary plans and actions. Two examples of how such information is used are presented. The first involves assessing the impact of a major earthquake on critical facilities in southern California, and the second involves strengthening or removing unsafe masonry buildings in the Los Angeles area. -from Authors

The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.

1999-01-01

We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M?? 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the 'preslip' and 'cascade' models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.

Rupture directivity of moderate earthquakes in northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seekins, Linda C.; Boatwright, John

2010-01-01

We invert peak ground velocity and acceleration (PGV and PGA) to estimate rupture direction and rupture velocity for 47 moderate earthquakes (3.5≥M≥5.4) in northern California. We correct sets of PGAs and PGVs recorded at stations less than 55–125 km, depending on source depth, for site amplification and source–receiver distance, then fit the residual peak motions to the unilateral directivity function of Ben-Menahem (1961). We independently invert PGA and PGV. The rupture direction can be determined using as few as seven peak motions if the station distribution is sufficient. The rupture velocity is unstable, however, if there are no takeoff angles within 30° of the rupture direction. Rupture velocities are generally subsonic (0.5β–0.9β); for stability, we limit the rupture velocity at v=0.92β, the Rayleigh wave speed. For 73 of 94 inversions, the rupture direction clearly identifies one of the nodal planes as the fault plane. The 35 strike-slip earthquakes have rupture directions that range from nearly horizontal (6 events) to directly updip (5 events); the other 24 rupture partly along strike and partly updip. Two strike-slip earthquakes rupture updip in one inversion and downdip in the other. All but 1 of the 11 thrust earthquakes rupture predominantly updip. We compare the rupture directions for 10 M≥4.0 earthquakes to the relative location of the mainshock and the first two weeks of aftershocks. Spatial distributions of 8 of 10 aftershock sequences agree well with the rupture directivity calculated for the mainshock.

SCIGN; new Southern California GPS network advances the study of earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hudnut, Ken; King, Nancy

2001-01-01

Southern California is a giant jigsaw puzzle, and scientists are now using GPS satellites to track the pieces. These puzzle pieces are continuously moving, slowly straining the faults in between. That strain is then eventually released in earthquakes. The innovative Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) tracks the motions of these pieces over most of southern California with unprecedented precision. This new network greatly improves the ability to assess seismic hazards and quickly measure the larger displacements that occur during and immediatelyafter earthquakes.

Nowcasting Earthquakes: A Comparison of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma and at the Geysers, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Hawkins, Angela; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-01-01

Nowcasting is a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk (Rundle et al. 2016). In this paper, the method is applied to the induced seismicity at the Geysers geothermal region in California and the induced seismicity due to fluid injection in Oklahoma. Nowcasting utilizes the catalogs of seismicity in these regions. Two earthquake magnitudes are selected, one large say M_{λ } ≥ 4, and one small say M_{σ } ≥ 2. The method utilizes the number of small earthquakes that occurs between pairs of large earthquakes. The cumulative probability distribution of these values is obtained. The earthquake potential score (EPS) is defined by the number of small earthquakes that has occurred since the last large earthquake, the point where this number falls on the cumulative probability distribution of interevent counts defines the EPS. A major advantage of nowcasting is that it utilizes "natural time", earthquake counts, between events rather than clock time. Thus, it is not necessary to decluster aftershocks and the results are applicable if the level of induced seismicity varies in time. The application of natural time to the accumulation of the seismic hazard depends on the applicability of Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling. The increasing number of small earthquakes that occur after a large earthquake can be scaled to give the risk of a large earthquake occurring. To illustrate our approach, we utilize the number of M_{σ } ≥ 2.75 earthquakes in Oklahoma to nowcast the number of M_{λ } ≥ 4.0 earthquakes in Oklahoma. The applicability of the scaling is illustrated during the rapid build-up of injection-induced seismicity between 2012 and 2016, and the subsequent reduction in seismicity associated with a reduction in fluid injections. The same method is applied to the geothermal-induced seismicity at the Geysers, California, for comparison.

Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977.

PubMed

McNally, K C; Kanamori, H; Pechmann, J C; Fuis, G

1978-09-01

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude California. This swarm was the first observed along this section of the San Andreas since cataloging of instrumental data began in 1932. The activity followed partial subsidence of the 35-centimeter vertical crustal uplift known as the Palmdale bulge along this "locked" section of the San Andreas, which last broke in the great (surface-wave magnitude = 8(1/4)+) 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. The swarm events exhibit characteristics previously observed for some foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown.

Earthquake swarm along the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mcnally, K.C.; Kanamori, H.; Pechmann, J.C.; Fuis, G.

1978-01-01

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude ??? 3) occurred on or near the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, California. This swarm was the first observed along this section of the San Andreas since cataloging of instrumental data began in 1932. The activity followed partial subsidence of the 35-centimeter vertical crustal uplift known as the Palmdale bulge along this "locked" section of the San Andreas, which last broke in the great (surface-wave magnitude = 81/4+) 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. The swarm events exhibit characteristics previously observed for some foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown. Copyright ?? 1978 AAAS.

In the shadow of 1857-the effect of the great Ft. Tejon earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.

1996-01-01

The great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake is the largest earthquake to have hit southern California during the historic period. We investigated if seismicity patterns following 1857 could be due to static stress changes generated by the 1857 earthquake. When post-1857 earthquakes with unknown focal mechanisms were assigned strike-slip mechanisms with strike and rake determined by the nearest active fault, 13 of the 13 southern California M???5.5 earthquakes between 1857 and 1907 were encouraged by the 1857 rupture. When post-1857 earthquakes in the Transverse Ranges with unknown focal mechanisms were assigned reverse mechanisms and all other events were assumed strike-slip, 11 of the 13 earthquakes were encouraged by the 1857 earthquake. These results show significant correlations between static stress changes and seismicity patterns. The correlation disappears around 1907, suggesting that tectonic loading began to overwhelm the effect of the 1857 earthquake early in the 20th century.

Catalog of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in Central California, July-September 1972

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Meagher, K.L.; Lester, F.W.

1973-01-01

Numerous small earthquakes occur each day in the coast ranges of Central California. The detailed study of these earthquakes provides a tool for gaining insight into the tectonic and physical processes responsible for the generation of damaging earthquakes. This catalog contains the fundamental parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network operated by the National Center for Earthquake Research (NCER), U.S. Geological Survey, during the period July - September, 1972. The motivation for these detailed studies has been described by Pakiser and others (1969) and by Eaton and others (1970). Similar catalogs of earthquakes for the years 1969, 1970 and 1971 have been prepared by Lee and others (1972 b, c, d). Catalogs for the first and second quarters of 1972 have been prepared by Wessan and others (1972 a & b). The basic data contained in these catalogs provide a foundation for further studies. This catalog contains data on 1254 earthquakes in Central California. Arrival times at 129 seismograph stations were used to locate the earthquakes listed in this catalog. Of these, 104 are telemetered stations operated by NCER. Readings from the remaining 25 stations were obtained through the courtesy of the Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley (UCB), the Earthquake Mechanism Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, San Francisco (EML); and the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento. The Seismographic Stations of the University of California, Berkeley, have for many years published a bulletin describing earthquakes in Northern California and the surrounding area, and readings at UCB Stations from more distant events. The purpose of the present catalog is not to replace the UCB Bulletin, but rather to supplement it, by describing the seismicity of a portion of central California in much greater detail.

The August 2011 Virginia and Colorado Earthquake Sequences: Does Stress Drop Depend on Strain Rate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abercrombie, R. E.; Viegas, G.

2011-12-01

Our preliminary analysis of the August 2011 Virginia earthquake sequence finds the earthquakes to have high stress drops, similar to those of recent earthquakes in NE USA, while those of the August 2011 Trinidad, Colorado, earthquakes are moderate - in between those typical of interplate (California) and the east coast. These earthquakes provide an unprecedented opportunity to study such source differences in detail, and hence improve our estimates of seismic hazard. Previously, the lack of well-recorded earthquakes in the eastern USA severely limited our resolution of the source processes and hence the expected ground accelerations. Our preliminary findings are consistent with the idea that earthquake faults strengthen during longer recurrence times and intraplate faults fail at higher stress (and produce higher ground accelerations) than their interplate counterparts. We use the empirical Green's function (EGF) method to calculate source parameters for the Virginia mainshock and three larger aftershocks, and for the Trinidad mainshock and two larger foreshocks using IRIS-available stations. We select time windows around the direct P and S waves at the closest stations and calculate spectral ratios and source time functions using the multi-taper spectral approach (eg. Viegas et al., JGR 2010). Our preliminary results show that the Virginia sequence has high stress drops (~100-200 MPa, using Madariaga (1976) model), and the Colorado sequence has moderate stress drops (~20 MPa). These numbers are consistent with previous work in the regions, for example the Au Sable Forks (2002) earthquake, and the 2010 Germantown (MD) earthquake. We also calculate the radiated seismic energy and find the energy/moment ratio to be high for the Virginia earthquakes, and moderate for the Colorado sequence. We observe no evidence of a breakdown in constant stress drop scaling in this limited number of earthquakes. We extend our analysis to a larger number of earthquakes and stations

Automatic 3D Moment tensor inversions for southern California earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q.; Tape, C.; Friberg, P.; Tromp, J.

2008-12-01

We present a new source mechanism (moment-tensor and depth) catalog for about 150 recent southern California earthquakes with Mw ≥ 3.5. We carefully select the initial solutions from a few available earthquake catalogs as well as our own preliminary 3D moment tensor inversion results. We pick useful data windows by assessing the quality of fits between the data and synthetics using an automatic windowing package FLEXWIN (Maggi et al 2008). We compute the source Fréchet derivatives of moment-tensor elements and depth for a recent 3D southern California velocity model inverted based upon finite-frequency event kernels calculated by the adjoint methods and a nonlinear conjugate gradient technique with subspace preconditioning (Tape et al 2008). We then invert for the source mechanisms and event depths based upon the techniques introduced by Liu et al 2005. We assess the quality of this new catalog, as well as the other existing ones, by computing the 3D synthetics for the updated 3D southern California model. We also plan to implement the moment-tensor inversion methods to automatically determine the source mechanisms for earthquakes with Mw ≥ 3.5 in southern California.

Probability of one or more M ≥7 earthquakes in southern California in 30 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.

1994-01-01

Eight earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to seven have occurred in southern California in the past 200 years. If one assumes that such events are the product of a Poisson process, the probability of one or more earthquakes of magnitude seven or larger in southern California within any 30 year interval is 67% ?? 23% (95% confidence interval). Because five of the eight M ??? 7 earthquakes in southern California in the last 200 years occurred away from the San Andreas fault system, the probability of one or more M ??? 7 earthquakes in southern California but not on the San Andreas fault system occurring within 30 years is 52% ?? 27% (95% confidence interval). -Author

Forecasting California's earthquakes: What can we expect in the next 30 years?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Milner, Kevin R.; ,

2008-01-01

In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%?such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the State. Building codes, earthquake insurance, and emergency planning will be affected by these new results, which highlight the urgency to prepare now for the powerful quakes that are inevitable in California?s future.

The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse: A Plan to Learn From the Next Large California Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loyd, R.; Walter, S.; Fenton, J.; Tubbesing, S.; Greene, M.

2008-12-01

In the rush to remove debris after a damaging earthquake, perishable data related to a wide range of impacts on the physical, built and social environments can be lost. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse is intended to prevent this data loss by supporting the earth scientists, engineers, and social and policy researchers who will conduct fieldwork in the affected areas in the hours and days following the earthquake to study these effects. First called for by Governor Ronald Reagan following the destructive M6.5 San Fernando earthquake in 1971, the concept of the Clearinghouse has since been incorporated into the response plans of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (USGS Circular 1242). This presentation is intended to acquaint scientists with the purpose, functions, and services of the Clearinghouse. Typically, the Clearinghouse is set up in the vicinity of the earthquake within 24 hours of the mainshock and is maintained for several days to several weeks. It provides a location where field researchers can assemble to share and discuss their observations, plan and coordinate subsequent field work, and communicate significant findings directly to the emergency responders and to the public through press conferences. As the immediate response effort winds down, the Clearinghouse will ensure that collected data are archived and made available through "lessons learned" reports and publications that follow significant earthquakes. Participants in the quarterly meetings of the Clearinghouse include representatives from state and federal agencies, universities, NGOs and other private groups. Overall management of the Clearinghouse is delegated to the agencies represented by the authors above.

Continuing Megathrust Earthquake Potential in northern Chile after the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, G. P.; Herman, M. W.; Barnhart, W. D.; Furlong, K. P.; Riquelme, S.; Benz, H.; Bergman, E.; Barrientos, S. E.; Earle, P. S.; Samsonov, S. V.

2014-12-01

The seismic gap theory, which identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison to other portions of a fault, has successfully explained past earthquakes and is useful for qualitatively describing where future large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which until recently had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M~8.8 event in 1877. On April 1 2014, a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this northern Chile seismic gap, offshore of the city of Iquique; the size and spatial extent of the rupture indicate it was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Here, we present a rapid assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 seismic sequence offshore northern Chile, including analyses of earthquake (fore- and aftershock) relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations, and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer calculations over the duration of the sequence. This ensemble of information allows us to place the current sequence within the context of historic seismicity in the region, and to assess areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results indicate that while accumulated strain has been released for a portion of the northern Chile seismic gap, significant sections have not ruptured in almost 150 years. These observations suggest that large-to-great sized megathrust earthquakes will occur north and south of the 2014 Iquique sequence sooner than might be expected had the 2014 events ruptured the entire seismic gap.

Earthquake Education and Public Information Centers: A Collaboration Between the Earthquake Country Alliance and Free-Choice Learning Institutions in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degroot, R. M.; Springer, K.; Brooks, C. J.; Schuman, L.; Dalton, D.; Benthien, M. L.

2009-12-01

In 1999 the Southern California Earthquake Center initiated an effort to expand its reach to multiple target audiences through the development of an interpretive trail on the San Andreas fault at Wallace Creek and an earthquake exhibit at Fingerprints Youth Museum in Hemet. These projects and involvement with the San Bernardino County Museum in Redlands beginning in 2007 led to the creation of Earthquake Education and Public Information Centers (EPIcenters) in 2008. The impetus for the development of the network was to broaden participation in The Great Southern California ShakeOut. In 2009 it has grown to be more comprehensive in its scope including its evolution into a statewide network. EPIcenters constitute a variety of free-choice learning institutions, representing museums, science centers, libraries, universities, parks, and other places visited by a variety of audiences including families, seniors, and school groups. They share a commitment to demonstrating and encouraging earthquake preparedness. EPIcenters coordinate Earthquake Country Alliance activities in their county or region, lead presentations or organize events in their communities, or in other ways demonstrate leadership in earthquake education and risk reduction. The San Bernardino County Museum (Southern California) and The Tech Museum of Innovation (Northern California) serve as EPIcenter regional coordinating institutions. They interact with over thirty institutional partners who have implemented a variety of activities from displays and talks to earthquake exhibitions. While many activities are focused on the time leading up to and just after the ShakeOut, most EPIcenter members conduct activities year round. Network members at Kidspace Museum in Pasadena and San Diego Natural History Museum have formed EPIcenter focus groups on early childhood education and safety and security. This presentation highlights the development of the EPIcenter network, synergistic activities resulting from this

Keeping the History in Historical Seismology: The 1872 Owens Valley, California Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hough, Susan E.

2008-07-01

The importance of historical earthquakes is being increasingly recognized. Careful investigations of key pre-instrumental earthquakes can provide critical information and insights for not only seismic hazard assessment but also for earthquake science. In recent years, with the explosive growth in computational sophistication in Earth sciences, researchers have developed increasingly sophisticated methods to analyze macroseismic data quantitatively. These methodological developments can be extremely useful to exploit fully the temporally and spatially rich information source that seismic intensities often represent. For example, the exhaustive and painstaking investigations done by Ambraseys and his colleagues of early Himalayan earthquakes provides information that can be used to map out site response in the Ganges basin. In any investigation of macroseismic data, however, one must stay mindful that intensity values are not data but rather interpretations. The results of any subsequent analysis, regardless of the degree of sophistication of the methodology, will be only as reliable as the interpretations of available accounts—and only as complete as the research done to ferret out, and in many cases translate, these accounts. When intensities are assigned without an appreciation of historical setting and context, seemingly careful subsequent analysis can yield grossly inaccurate results. As a case study, I report here on the results of a recent investigation of the 1872 Owen's Valley, California earthquake. Careful consideration of macroseismic observations reveals that this event was probably larger than the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, and possibly the largest historical earthquake in California. The results suggest that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude.

Keeping the History in Historical Seismology: The 1872 Owens Valley, California Earthquake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hough, Susan E.

2008-07-08

The importance of historical earthquakes is being increasingly recognized. Careful investigations of key pre-instrumental earthquakes can provide critical information and insights for not only seismic hazard assessment but also for earthquake science. In recent years, with the explosive growth in computational sophistication in Earth sciences, researchers have developed increasingly sophisticated methods to analyze macroseismic data quantitatively. These methodological developments can be extremely useful to exploit fully the temporally and spatially rich information source that seismic intensities often represent. For example, the exhaustive and painstaking investigations done by Ambraseys and his colleagues of early Himalayan earthquakes provides information that can bemore » used to map out site response in the Ganges basin. In any investigation of macroseismic data, however, one must stay mindful that intensity values are not data but rather interpretations. The results of any subsequent analysis, regardless of the degree of sophistication of the methodology, will be only as reliable as the interpretations of available accounts - and only as complete as the research done to ferret out, and in many cases translate, these accounts. When intensities are assigned without an appreciation of historical setting and context, seemingly careful subsequent analysis can yield grossly inaccurate results. As a case study, I report here on the results of a recent investigation of the 1872 Owen's Valley, California earthquake. Careful consideration of macroseismic observations reveals that this event was probably larger than the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, and possibly the largest historical earthquake in California. The results suggest that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude.« less

FORESHOCKS AND TIME-DEPENDENT EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.

1985-01-01

The probability that an earthquake in southern California (M greater than equivalent to 3. 0) will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km (i. e. , will be a foreshock) is 6 plus or minus 0. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ), and is not significantly dependent on the magnitude of the possible foreshock between M equals 3 and M equals 5. The probability that an earthquake will be followed by an M greater than equivalent to 5. 0 main shock, however, increases with magnitude of the foreshock from less than 1 per cent at M greater than equivalent to 3 to 6. 5 plus or minus 2. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ) at M greater than equivalent to 5. The main shock will most likely occur in the first hour after the foreshock, and the probability that a main shock will occur in the first hour decreases with elapsed time from the occurrence of the possible foreshock by approximately the inverse of time. Thus, the occurrence of an earthquake of M greater than equivalent to 3. 0 in southern California increases the earthquake hazard within a small space-time window several orders of magnitude above the normal background level.

Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California: a new mapping tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerstenberger, Matt; Wiemer, Stefan; Jones, Lucy

2004-01-01

We have derived a multi-model approach to calculate time-dependent earthquake hazard resulting from earthquake clustering. This file report explains the theoretical background behind the approach, the specific details that are used in applying the method to California, as well as the statistical testing to validate the technique. We have implemented our algorithm as a real-time tool that has been automatically generating short-term hazard maps for California since May of 2002, at http://step.wr.usgs.gov

The 2008 Wells, Nevada earthquake sequence: Source constraints using calibrated multiple event relocation and InSAR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Hayes, Gavin; Berman, Eric; Barnhart, William

2017-01-01

The 2008 Wells, NV earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the conterminous U.S. outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock-aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog with 1,928 well-located events. In order to create this catalog, both subspace and kurtosis detectors are used to obtain an initial set of earthquakes and associated locations. The latter are then calibrated through the implementation of the hypocentroidal decomposition method and relocated using the BayesLoc relocation technique. We additionally perform a finite fault slip analysis of the mainshock using InSAR observations. By combining the relocated sequence with the finite fault analysis, we show that the aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase; aftershock depths, ranging from 5 to 16 km, are consistent with InSAR imaging, which shows that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

Detecting and Characterizing Repeating Earthquake Sequences During Volcanic Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tepp, G.; Haney, M. M.; Wech, A.

2017-12-01

A major challenge in volcano seismology is forecasting eruptions. Repeating earthquake sequences often precede volcanic eruptions or lava dome activity, providing an opportunity for short-term eruption forecasting. Automatic detection of these sequences can lead to timely eruption notification and aid in continuous monitoring of volcanic systems. However, repeating earthquake sequences may also occur after eruptions or along with magma intrusions that do not immediately lead to an eruption. This additional challenge requires a better understanding of the processes involved in producing these sequences to distinguish those that are precursory. Calculation of the inverse moment rate and concepts from the material failure forecast method can lead to such insights. The temporal evolution of the inverse moment rate is observed to differ for precursory and non-precursory sequences, and multiple earthquake sequences may occur concurrently. These observations suggest that sequences may occur in different locations or through different processes. We developed an automated repeating earthquake sequence detector and near real-time alarm to send alerts when an in-progress sequence is identified. Near real-time inverse moment rate measurements can further improve our ability to forecast eruptions by allowing for characterization of sequences. We apply the detector to eruptions of two Alaskan volcanoes: Bogoslof in 2016-2017 and Redoubt Volcano in 2009. The Bogoslof eruption produced almost 40 repeating earthquake sequences between its start in mid-December 2016 and early June 2017, 21 of which preceded an explosive eruption, and 2 sequences in the months before eruptive activity. Three of the sequences occurred after the implementation of the alarm in late March 2017 and successfully triggered alerts. The nearest seismometers to Bogoslof are over 45 km away, requiring a detector that can work with few stations and a relatively low signal-to-noise ratio. During the Redoubt

Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence.

PubMed

Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016-2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences.

Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence

PubMed Central

Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe

2017-01-01

Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016–2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences. PMID:28924610

Earthquake and Tsunami planning, outreach and awareness in Humboldt County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozaki, V.; Nicolini, T.; Larkin, D.; Dengler, L.

2008-12-01

Humboldt County has the longest coastline in California and is one of the most seismically active areas of the state. It is at risk from earthquakes located on and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), other regional fault systems, and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology published the first earthquake scenario to include both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of representatives from government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector from the three northern coastal California counties, was formed in 1996 to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation. The RCTWG and its member agencies have sponsored a variety of projects including education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning, and has sponsored an Earthquake - Tsunami Education Room at the Humboldt County fair for the past eleven years. Three editions of Living on Shaky Ground an earthquake-tsunami preparedness magazine for California's North Coast, have been published since 1993 and a fourth is due to be published in fall 2008. In 2007, Humboldt County was the first region in the country to participate in a tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD and the first area in California to conduct a full-scale tsunami evacuation drill. The County has conducted numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises using county-wide tsunami response plan. Two Humboldt County communities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service in 2007. Over 300 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in Humboldt County since March 2008. Six assessment surveys from 1993 to 2006 have tracked preparedness actions and personal

The Northern California Earthquake Management System: A Unified System From Realtime Monitoring to Data Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhauser, D.; Dietz, L.; Lombard, P.; Klein, F.; Zuzlewski, S.; Kohler, W.; Hellweg, M.; Luetgert, J.; Oppenheimer, D.; Romanowicz, B.

2006-12-01

The longstanding cooperation between the USGS Menlo Park and UC Berkeley's Seismological Laboratory for monitoring earthquakes and providing data to the research community is achieving a new level of integration. While station support and data collection for each network (NC, BK, BP) remain the responsibilities of the host institution, picks, codas and amplitudes will be produced and shared between the data centers continuously. Thus, realtime earthquake processing from triggering and locating through magnitude and moment tensor calculation and Shakemap production will take place independently at both locations, improving the robustness of event reporting in the Northern California Earthquake Management Center. Parametric data will also be exchanged with the Southern California Earthquake Management System to allow statewide earthquake detection and processing for further redundancy within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). The database plays an integral part in this system, providing the coordination for event processing as well as the repository for event, instrument (metadata) and waveform information. The same master database serves both realtime processing, data quality control and archival, and the data center which provides waveforms and earthquake data to users in the research community. Continuous waveforms from all BK, BP, and NC stations, event waveform gathers, and event information automatically become available at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC). Currently, the NCEDC is collecting and makes available over 4 TByes of data per year from the NCEMC stations and other seismic networks, as well as from GPS and and other geophysical instrumentation.

School Safety Down to Earth: California's Earthquake-Resistant Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Progressive Architecture, 1979

1979-01-01

Schools in California being built to resist damage by earthquakes are part of a program to meet building standards established in 1933. The three new schools presented reflect the strengths and weaknesses of the program. (Author/MLF)

Earthquake prediction research at the Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spall, H.

1979-01-01

Nevertheless, basic earthquake-related information has always been of consuming interest to the public and the media in this part of California (fig. 2.). So it is not surprising that earthquake prediction continues to be a significant reserach program at the laboratory. Several of the current spectrum of projects related to prediction are discussed below. 

Post-Earthquake Traffic Capacity of Modern Bridges in California

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

Evaluation of the capacity of a bridge to carry self-weight and traffic loads after an earthquake is essential for a : safe and timely re-opening of the bridge. In California, modern highway bridges designed using the Caltrans : Seismic Design Criter...

Preparing a population for an earthquake like Chi-Chi: The Great Southern California ShakeOut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.; ,

2009-01-01

The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. On November 13, 2008, over 5 million southern Californians pretended that a magnitude-7.8 earthquake had occurred and practiced actions that could reduce its impact on their lives. The primary message of the ShakeOut is that what we do now, before a big earthquake, will determine what our lives will be like after. The drill was based on a scenario of the impacts and consequences of such an earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault, developed by over 300 experts led by the U.S. Geological Survey in partnership with the California Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, lifeline operators, emergency services and many other organizations. The ShakeOut campaign was designed and implemented by earthquake scientists, emergency managers, sociologists, art designers and community participants. The means of communication were developed using results from sociological research on what encouraged people to take action. This was structured around four objectives: 1) consistent messages – people are more inclined to believe something when they hear the same thing from multiple sources; 2) visual reinforcement – people are more inclined to do something they see other people doing; 3) encourage “milling” or discussing contemplated action – people need to discuss an action with others they care about before committing to undertaking it; and 4) focus on concrete actions – people are more likely to prepare for a set of concrete consequences of a particular hazard than for an abstract concept of risk. The goals of the ShakeOut were established in Spring 2008 and were: 1) to register 5 million people to participate in the drill; 2) to change the culture of earthquake preparedness in southern California; and 3) to reduce earthquake losses in southern California. All of these

Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, E.; Bhaskaran, A.; Chen, S.; Chowdhury, F. R.; Meisenhelter, S.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

2010-12-01

Currently the SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 5000 data channels from 425 SCSN recorded stations, processing and archiving an average of 12,000 earthquakes each year. The SCEDC provides public access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP and DHI. This poster will describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC in the past year. Updated hardware: ● The SCEDC has more than doubled its waveform file storage capacity by migrating to 2 TB disks. New data holdings: ● Waveform data: Beginning Jan 1, 2010 the SCEDC began continuously archiving all high-sample-rate strong-motion channels. All seismic channels recorded by SCSN are now continuously archived and available at SCEDC. ● Portable data from El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 sequence: Seismic waveforms from portable stations installed by researchers (contributed by Elizabeth Cochran, Jamie Steidl, and Octavio Lazaro-Mancilla) have been added to the archive and are accessible through STP either as continuous data or associated with events in the SCEDC earthquake catalog. This additional data will help SCSN analysts and researchers improve event locations from the sequence. ● Real time GPS solutions from El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 event: Three component 1Hz seismograms of California Real Time Network (CRTN) GPS stations, from the April 4, 2010, magnitude 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake are available in SAC format at the SCEDC. These time series were created by Brendan Crowell, Yehuda Bock, the project PI, and Mindy Squibb at SOPAC using data from the CRTN. The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake demonstrated definitively the power of real-time high-rate GPS data: they measure dynamic displacements directly, they do not clip and they are also able to detect the permanent (coseismic) surface deformation. ● Triggered data from the Quake Catcher Network (QCN) and Community Seismic Network (CSN): The SCEDC in

Multi-sensor Integration of Space and Ground Observations of Pre-earthquake Anomalies Associated with M6.0, August 24, 2014 Napa, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouzounov, Dimitar; Tramutoli, Valerio; Pulinets, Sergey; Liu, Tiger; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Lisi, Mariano; Petrov, Leonid; Kafatos, Menas

2015-04-01

We integrate multiple space-born and ground sensors for monitoring pre-earthquake geophysical anomalies that can provide significant early notification for earthquakes higher than M5.5 worldwide. The latest M6.0 event of August 24, 2014 in South Napa, California generated pre-earthquake signatures during our outgoing tests for California, and an experimental warning was documented about 17 days in advance. We process in controlled environment different satellite and ground data for California (and several other test areas) by using: a) data from the NPOES sensors recording OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the infrared; b) 2/GNSS, FORMOSAT (GPS/TEC); c) Earth Observing System assimilation models from NASA; d) ground-based gas observations and meteorological data; e) TIR (Thermal Infrared) data from geostationary satellite (GOES). On Aug 4th, we detected (prospectively) a large anomaly of OLR transient field at the TOA over Northern California. The location was shifted in the northeast direction about 150 km from the Aug 23rd epicentral area. Compared to the reference field of August 2004 to 2014 the hotspot anomaly was the largest energy flux anomaly over the entire continental United States at this time. Based on the temporal and spatial estimates of the anomaly, on August 4th we issued an internal warning for a M5.5+ earthquake in Northern California within the next 1-4 weeks. TIR retrospective analysis showed significant (spatially extended and temporally persistent) sequences of TIR anomalies starting August 1st just in the future epicenter area and approximately in the same area affected by OLR anomalies in the following days. GPS/TEC retrospective analysis based on GIM and TGIM products show anomalies TEC variations 1-3 days, over region north form the Napa earthquake epicenter. The calculated index of atmospheric chemical potential based on the NASA numerical Assimilation weather model GEOS5 indicates for abnormal variations near the epicentral area days

Post-earthquake traffic capacity of modern bridges in California.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

Evaluation of the capacity of a bridge to carry self-weight and traffic loads after an earthquake is essential for a safe and timely re-opening of the bridge. In California, modern highway bridges designed using the Caltrans Seismic Design Criteria a...

Database of potential sources for earthquakes larger than magnitude 6 in Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1996-01-01

The Northern California Earthquake Potential (NCEP) working group, composed of many contributors and reviewers in industry, academia and government, has pooled its collective expertise and knowledge of regional tectonics to identify potential sources of large earthquakes in northern California. We have created a map and database of active faults, both surficial and buried, that forms the basis for the northern California portion of the national map of probabilistic seismic hazard. The database contains 62 potential sources, including fault segments and areally distributed zones. The working group has integrated constraints from broadly based plate tectonic and VLBI models with local geologic slip rates, geodetic strain rate, and microseismicity. Our earthquake source database derives from a scientific consensus that accounts for conflict in the diverse data. Our preliminary product, as described in this report brings to light many gaps in the data, including a need for better information on the proportion of deformation in fault systems that is aseismic.

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

2012-01-01

The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

Images of crust beneath southern California will aid study of earthquakes and their effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuis, G.S.; Okaya, D.A.; Clayton, R.W.; Lutter, W.J.; Ryberg, T.; Brocher, T.M.; Henyey, T.M.; Benthien, M.L.; Davis, P.M.; Mori, J.; Catchings, R.D.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Kohler, M.D.; Klitgord, Kim D.; Bohannon, R.G.

1996-01-01

The Whittier Narrows earthquake of 1987 and the Northridge earthquake of 1991 highlighted the earthquake hazards associated with buried faults in the Los Angeles region. A more thorough knowledge of the subsurface structure of southern California is needed to reveal these and other buried faults and to aid us in understanding how the earthquake-producing machinery works in this region.

The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roeloffs, E.; Langbein, J.

1994-01-01

Since 1985, a focused earthquake prediction experiment has been in progress along the San Andreas fault near the town of Parkfield in central California. Parkfield has experienced six moderate earthquakes since 1857 at average intervals of 22 years, the most recent a magnitude 6 event in 1966. The probability of another moderate earthquake soon appears high, but studies assigning it a 95% chance of occurring before 1993 now appear to have been oversimplified. The identification of a Parkfield fault "segment" was initially based on geometric features in the surface trace of the San Andreas fault, but more recent microearthquake studies have demonstrated that those features do not extend to seismogenic depths. On the other hand, geodetic measurements are consistent with the existence of a "locked" patch on the fault beneath Parkfield that has presently accumulated a slip deficit equal to the slip in the 1966 earthquake. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake in October 1992 brought the Parkfield experiment to its highest level of alert, with a 72-hour public warning that there was a 37% chance of a magnitude 6 event. However, this warning proved to be a false alarm. Most data collected at Parkfield indicate that strain is accumulating at a constant rate on this part of the San Andreas fault, but some interesting departures from this behavior have been recorded. Here we outline the scientific arguments bearing on when the next Parkfield earthquake is likely to occur and summarize geophysical observations to date.

A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Jordan, Thomas H.; Page, Morgan T.; Milner, Kevin R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Biasi, Glenn; Parsons, Thomas E.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Weldon, Ray; Powers, Peter; Johnson, Kaj M.; Zeng, Yuehua; Bird, Peter; Felzer, Karen; van der Elst, Nicholas; Madden, Christopher; Arrowsmith, Ramon; Werner, Maximillan J.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

2017-01-01

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

The 3-D aftershock distribution of three recent M5~5.5 earthquakes in the Anza region,California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.; Wdowinski, S.; Lin, G.

2011-12-01

The San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) exhibits the highest level of seismicity compared to other regions in southern California. On average, it produces four earthquakes per day, most of them at depth of 10-17 km. Over the past decade, an increasing seismic activity occurred in the Anza region, which included three M5~5.5 events and their aftershock sequences. These events occurred in 2001, 2005, and 2010. In this research we map the 3-D distribution of these three events to evaluate their rupture geometry and better understand the unusual deep seismic pattern along the SJFZ, which was termed "deep creep" (Wdowinski, 2009). We relocated 97,562 events from 1981 to 2011 in Anza region by applying the Source-Specific Station Term (SSST) method (Lin et al., 2006) and used an accurate 1-D velocity model derived from 3-D model of Lin et al (2007) and used In order to separate the aftershock sequence from background seismicity, we characterized each of the three aftershock sequences using Omori's law. Preliminary results show that all three sequences had a similar geometry of deep elongated aftershock distribution. Most aftershocks occurred at depth of 10-17 km and extended over a 70 km long segments of the SJFZ, centered at the mainshock hypocenters. A comparative study of other M5~5.5 mainshocks and their aftershock sequences in southern California reveals very different geometrical pattern, suggesting that the three Anza M5~5.5 events are unique and can be indicative of "deep creep" deformation processes. Reference 1.Lin, G.and Shearer,P.M.,2006, The COMPLOC earthquake location package,Seism. Res. Lett.77, pp.440-444. 2.Lin, G. and Shearer, P.M., Hauksson, E., and Thurber C.H.,2007, A three-dimensional crustal seismic velocity model for southern California from a composite event method,J. Geophys.Res.112, B12306, doi: 10.1029/ 2007JB004977. 3.Wdowinski, S. ,2009, Deep creep as a cause for the excess seismicity along the San Jacinto fault, Nat. Geosci.,doi:10.1038/NGEO684.

Fluid-faulting interactions: Fracture-mesh and fault-valve behavior in the February 2014 Mammoth Mountain, California, earthquake swarm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shelly, David R.; Taira, Taka’aki; Prejean, Stephanie; Hill, David P.; Dreger, Douglas S.

2015-01-01

Faulting and fluid transport in the subsurface are highly coupled processes, which may manifest seismically as earthquake swarms. A swarm in February 2014 beneath densely monitored Mammoth Mountain, California, provides an opportunity to witness these interactions in high resolution. Toward this goal, we employ massive waveform-correlation-based event detection and relative relocation, which quadruples the swarm catalog to more than 6000 earthquakes and produces high-precision locations even for very small events. The swarm's main seismic zone forms a distributed fracture mesh, with individual faults activated in short earthquake bursts. The largest event of the sequence, M 3.1, apparently acted as a fault valve and was followed by a distinct wave of earthquakes propagating ~1 km westward from the updip edge of rupture, 1–2 h later. Late in the swarm, multiple small, shallower subsidiary faults activated with pronounced hypocenter migration, suggesting that a broader fluid pressure pulse propagated through the subsurface.

The 2007 Nazko, British Columbia, earthquake sequence: Injection of magma deep in the crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cassidy, J.F.; Balfour, N.; Hickson, C.; Kao, H.; White, Rickie; Caplan-Auerbach, J.; Mazzotti, S.; Rogers, Gary C.; Al-Khoubbi, I.; Bird, A.L.; Esteban, L.; Kelman, M.; Hutchinson, J.; McCormack, D.

2011-01-01

On 9 October 2007, an unusual sequence of earthquakes began in central British Columbia about 20 km west of the Nazko cone, the most recent (circa 7200 yr) volcanic center in the Anahim volcanic belt. Within 25 hr, eight earthquakes of magnitude 2.3-2.9 occurred in a region where no earthquakes had previously been recorded. During the next three weeks, more than 800 microearthquakes were located (and many more detected), most at a depth of 25-31 km and within a radius of about 5 km. After about two months, almost all activity ceased. The clear P- and S-wave arrivals indicated that these were high-frequency (volcanic-tectonic) earthquakes and the b value of 1.9 that we calculated is anomalous for crustal earthquakes but consistent with volcanic-related events. Analysis of receiver functions at a station immediately above the seismicity indicated a Moho near 30 km depth. Precise relocation of the seismicity using a double-difference method suggested a horizontal migration at the rate of about 0:5 km=d, with almost all events within the lowermost crust. Neither harmonic tremor nor long-period events were observed; however, some spasmodic bursts were recorded and determined to be colocated with the earthquake hypocenters. These observations are all very similar to a deep earthquake sequence recorded beneath Lake Tahoe, California, in 2003-2004. Based on these remarkable similarities, we interpret the Nazko sequence as an indication of an injection of magma into the lower crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt. This magma injection fractures rock, producing high-frequency, volcanic-tectonic earthquakes and spasmodic bursts.

Southern California Earthquake Center Geologic Vertical Motion Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niemi, Nathan A.; Oskin, Michael; Rockwell, Thomas K.

2008-07-01

The Southern California Earthquake Center Geologic Vertical Motion Database (VMDB) integrates disparate sources of geologic uplift and subsidence data at 104- to 106-year time scales into a single resource for investigations of crustal deformation in southern California. Over 1800 vertical deformation rate data points in southern California and northern Baja California populate the database. Four mature data sets are now represented: marine terraces, incised river terraces, thermochronologic ages, and stratigraphic surfaces. An innovative architecture and interface of the VMDB exposes distinct data sets and reference frames, permitting user exploration of this complex data set and allowing user control over the assumptions applied to convert geologic and geochronologic information into absolute uplift rates. Online exploration and download tools are available through all common web browsers, allowing the distribution of vertical motion results as HTML tables, tab-delimited GIS-compatible text files, or via a map interface through the Google Maps™ web service. The VMDB represents a mature product for research of fault activity and elastic deformation of southern California.

Comparison of aftershock sequences between 1975 Haicheng earthquake and 1976 Tangshan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, B.

2017-12-01

The 1975 ML 7.3 Haicheng earthquake and the 1976 ML 7.8 Tangshan earthquake occurred in the same tectonic unit. There are significant differences in spatial-temporal distribution, number of aftershocks and time duration for the aftershock sequence followed by these two main shocks. As we all know, aftershocks could be triggered by the regional seismicity change derived from the main shock, which was caused by the Coulomb stress perturbation. Based on the rate- and state- dependent friction law, we quantitative estimated the possible aftershock time duration with a combination of seismicity data, and compared the results from different approaches. The results indicate that, aftershock time durations from the Tangshan main shock is several times of that form the Haicheng main shock. This can be explained by the significant relationship between aftershock time duration and earthquake nucleation history, normal stressand shear stress loading rateon the fault. In fact the obvious difference of earthquake nucleation history from these two main shocks is the foreshocks. 1975 Haicheng earthquake has clear and long foreshocks, while 1976 Tangshan earthquake did not have clear foreshocks. In that case, abundant foreshocks may mean a long and active nucleation process that may have changed (weakened) the rocks in the source regions, so they should have a shorter aftershock sequences for the reason that stress in weak rocks decay faster.

1957 Gobi-Altay, Mongolia, earthquake as a prototype for southern California's most devastating earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bayarsayhan, C.; Bayasgalan, A.; Enhtuvshin, B.; Hudnut, K.W.; Kurushin, R.A.; Molnar, P.; Olziybat, M.

1996-01-01

The 1957 Gobi-Altay earthquake was associated with both strike-slip and thrust faulting, processes similar to those along the San Andreas fault and the faults bounding the San Gabriel Mountains just north of Los Angeles, California. Clearly, a major rupture either on the San Andreas fault north of Los Angeles or on the thrust faults bounding the Los Angeles basin poses a serious hazard to inhabitants of that area. By analogy with the Gobi-Altay earthquake, we suggest that simultaneous rupturing of both the San Andreas fault and the thrust faults nearer Los Angeles is a real possibility that amplifies the hazard posed by ruptures on either fault system separately.

Aftershocks of the 2014 South Napa, California, Earthquake: Complex faulting on secondary faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Shelly, David R.

2016-01-01

We investigate the aftershock sequence of the 2014 MW6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake. Low-magnitude aftershocks missing from the network catalog are detected by applying a matched-filter approach to continuous seismic data, with the catalog earthquakes serving as the waveform templates. We measure precise differential arrival times between events, which we use for double-difference event relocation in a 3D seismic velocity model. Most aftershocks are deeper than the mainshock slip, and most occur west of the mapped surface rupture. While the mainshock coseismic and postseismic slip appears to have occurred on the near-vertical, strike-slip West Napa fault, many of the aftershocks occur in a complex zone of secondary faulting. Earthquake locations in the main aftershock zone, near the mainshock hypocenter, delineate multiple dipping secondary faults. Composite focal mechanisms indicate strike-slip and oblique-reverse faulting on the secondary features. The secondary faults were moved towards failure by Coulomb stress changes from the mainshock slip. Clusters of aftershocks north and south of the main aftershock zone exhibit vertical strike-slip faulting more consistent with the West Napa Fault. The northern aftershocks correspond to the area of largest mainshock coseismic slip, while the main aftershock zone is adjacent to the fault area that has primarily slipped postseismically. Unlike most creeping faults, the zone of postseismic slip does not appear to contain embedded stick-slip patches that would have produced on-fault aftershocks. The lack of stick-slip patches along this portion of the fault may contribute to the low productivity of the South Napa aftershock sequence.

2017 Valparaíso earthquake sequence and the megathrust patchwork of central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nealy, Jennifer L.; Herman, Matthew W.; Moore, Ginevra L.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric A.; Barrientos, Sergio E.

2017-09-01

In April 2017, a sequence of earthquakes offshore Valparaíso, Chile, raised concerns of a potential megathrust earthquake in the near future. The largest event in the 2017 sequence was a M6.9 on 24 April, seemingly colocated with the last great-sized earthquake in the region—a M8.0 in March 1985. The history of large earthquakes in this region shows significant variation in rupture size and extent, typically highlighted by a juxtaposition of large ruptures interspersed with smaller magnitude sequences. We show that the 2017 sequence ruptured an area between the two main slip patches during the 1985 earthquake, rerupturing a patch that had previously slipped during the October 1973 M6.5 earthquake sequence. A significant gap in historic ruptures exists directly to the south of the 2017 sequence, with large enough moment deficit to host a great-sized earthquake in the near future, if it is locked.

2017 Valparaíso earthquake sequence and the megathrust patchwork of central Chile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nealy, Jennifer; Herman, Matthew W.; Moore, Ginevra; Hayes, Gavin; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric A.; Barrientos, Sergio E

2017-01-01

In April 2017, a sequence of earthquakes offshore Valparaíso, Chile, raised concerns of a potential megathrust earthquake in the near future. The largest event in the 2017 sequence was a M6.9 on 24 April, seemingly colocated with the last great-sized earthquake in the region—a M8.0 in March 1985. The history of large earthquakes in this region shows significant variation in rupture size and extent, typically highlighted by a juxtaposition of large ruptures interspersed with smaller magnitude sequences. We show that the 2017 sequence ruptured an area between the two main slip patches during the 1985 earthquake, rerupturing a patch that had previously slipped during the October 1973 M6.5 earthquake sequence. A significant gap in historic ruptures exists directly to the south of the 2017 sequence, with large enough moment deficit to host a great-sized earthquake in the near future, if it is locked.

Earthquake Rate Model 2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Magnitude-Area Relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, Ross S.

2008-01-01

The Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities must transform fault lengths and their slip rates into earthquake moment-magnitudes. First, the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, must be inferred. We have chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the depth above which 99% of the background seismicity occurs to assign W. The product of the observed or inferred fault length, L, with the down-dip dimension, W, gives the fault area, A. We must then use a scaling relation to relate A to moment-magnitude, Mw. We assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2007) equations. The former uses a single logarithmic relation fitted to the M=6.5 portion of data of Wells and Coppersmith (1994); the latter uses a bilinear relation with a slope change at M=6.65 (A=537 km2) and also was tested against a greatly expanded dataset for large continental transform earthquakes. We also present an alternative power law relation, which fits the newly expanded Hanks and Bakun (2007) data best, and captures the change in slope that Hanks and Bakun attribute to a transition from area- to length-scaling of earthquake slip. We have not opted to use the alternative relation for the current model. The selections and weights were developed by unanimous consensus of the Executive Committee of the Working Group, following an open meeting of scientists, a solicitation of outside opinions from additional scientists, and presentation of our approach to the Scientific Review Panel. The magnitude-area relations and their assigned weights are unchanged from that used in Working Group (2003).

A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Page, Morgan T.; van der Elst, Nicholas; Jordan, Thomas H.; Michael, Andrew J.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Werner, Maximillan J.

2017-01-01

We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component to the previously published time‐independent and long‐term time‐dependent forecasts. This combined model, referred to as UCERF3‐ETAS, collectively represents a relaxation of segmentation assumptions, the inclusion of multifault ruptures, an elastic‐rebound model for fault‐based ruptures, and a state‐of‐the‐art spatiotemporal clustering component. It also represents an attempt to merge fault‐based forecasts with statistical seismology models, such that information on fault proximity, activity rate, and time since last event are considered in OEF. We describe several unanticipated challenges that were encountered, including a need for elastic rebound and characteristic magnitude–frequency distributions (MFDs) on faults, both of which are required to get realistic triggering behavior. UCERF3‐ETAS produces synthetic catalogs of M≥2.5 events, conditioned on any prior M≥2.5 events that are input to the model. We evaluate results with respect to both long‐term (1000 year) simulations as well as for 10‐year time periods following a variety of hypothetical scenario mainshocks. Although the results are very plausible, they are not always consistent with the simple notion that triggering probabilities should be greater if a mainshock is located near a fault. Important factors include whether the MFD near faults includes a significant characteristic earthquake component, as well as whether large triggered events can nucleate from within the rupture zone of the mainshock. Because UCERF3‐ETAS has many sources of uncertainty, as

Seasonal Water Storage, the Resulting Deformation and Stress, and Occurrence of Earthquakes in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, C. W.; Burgmann, R.; Fu, Y.; Dutilleul, P.

2015-12-01

In California the accumulated winter snow pack in the Sierra Nevada, reservoirs and groundwater water storage in the Central Valley follow an annual periodic cycle and each contribute to the resulting surface deformation, which can be observed using GPS time series. The ongoing drought conditions in the western U.S. amplify the observed uplift signal as the Earth's crust responds to the mass changes associated with the water loss. The near surface hydrological mass loss can result in annual stress changes of ~1kPa at seismogenic depths. Similarly, small static stress perturbations have previously been associated with changes in earthquake activity. Periodicity analysis of earthquake catalog time series suggest that periods of 4-, 6-, 12-, and 14.24-months are statistically significant in regions of California, and provide documentation for the modulation of earthquake populations at periods of natural loading cycles. Knowledge of what governs the timing of earthquakes is essential to understanding the nature of the earthquake cycle. If small static stress changes influence the timing of earthquakes, then one could expect that events will occur more rapidly during periods of greater external load increases. To test this hypothesis we develop a loading model using GPS derived surface water storage for California and calculate the stress change at seismogenic depths for different faulting geometries. We then evaluate the degree of correlation between the stress models and the seismicity taking into consideration the variable amplitude of stress cycles, the orientation of transient load stress with respect to the background stress field, and the geometry of active faults revealed by focal mechanisms.

Cruise report for A1-98-SC southern California Earthquake Hazards Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Normark, William R.; Bohannon, Robert G.; Sliter, Ray; Dunhill, Gita; Scholl, David W.; Laursen, Jane; Reid, Jane A.; Holton, David

1999-01-01

The focus of the Southern California Earthquake Hazards project, within the Western Region Coastal and Marine Geology team (WRCMG), is to identify the landslide and earthquake hazards and related ground-deformation processes that can potentially impact the social and economic well-being of the inhabitants of the Southern California coastal region, the most populated urban corridor along the U.S. Pacific margin. The primary objective is to help mitigate the earthquake hazards for the Southern California region by improving our understanding of how deformation is distributed (spatially and temporally) in the offshore with respect to the onshore region. To meet this overall objective, we are investigating the distribution, character, and relative intensity of active (i.e., primarily Holocene) deformation within the basins and along the shelf adjacent to the most highly populated areas (see Fig. 1). In addition, the project will examine the Pliocene-Pleistocene record of how this deformation has shifted in space and time. The results of this study should improve our knowledge of shifting deformation for both the long-term (105 to several 106 yr) and short-term (<50 ky) time frames and enable us to identify actively deforming structures that may constitute current significant seismic hazards.

History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mualchin, Lalliana

2011-03-01

Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published

Uncertainties in Earthquake Loss Analysis: A Case Study From Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahdyiar, M.; Guin, J.

2005-12-01

Probabilistic earthquake hazard and loss analyses play important roles in many areas of risk management, including earthquake related public policy and insurance ratemaking. Rigorous loss estimation for portfolios of properties is difficult since there are various types of uncertainties in all aspects of modeling and analysis. It is the objective of this study to investigate the sensitivity of earthquake loss estimation to uncertainties in regional seismicity, earthquake source parameters, ground motions, and sites' spatial correlation on typical property portfolios in Southern California. Southern California is an attractive region for such a study because it has a large population concentration exposed to significant levels of seismic hazard. During the last decade, there have been several comprehensive studies of most regional faults and seismogenic sources. There have also been detailed studies on regional ground motion attenuations and regional and local site responses to ground motions. This information has been used by engineering seismologists to conduct regional seismic hazard and risk analysis on a routine basis. However, one of the more difficult tasks in such studies is the proper incorporation of uncertainties in the analysis. From the hazard side, there are uncertainties in the magnitudes, rates and mechanisms of the seismic sources and local site conditions and ground motion site amplifications. From the vulnerability side, there are considerable uncertainties in estimating the state of damage of buildings under different earthquake ground motions. From an analytical side, there are challenges in capturing the spatial correlation of ground motions and building damage, and integrating thousands of loss distribution curves with different degrees of correlation. In this paper we propose to address some of these issues by conducting loss analyses of a typical small portfolio in southern California, taking into consideration various source and ground

Some facts about aftershocks to large earthquakes in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.; Reasenberg, Paul A.

1996-01-01

Earthquakes occur in clusters. After one earthquake happens, we usually see others at nearby (or identical) locations. To talk about this phenomenon, seismologists coined three terms foreshock , mainshock , and aftershock. In any cluster of earthquakes, the one with the largest magnitude is called the mainshock; earthquakes that occur before the mainshock are called foreshocks while those that occur after the mainshock are called aftershocks. A mainshock will be redefined as a foreshock if a subsequent event in the cluster has a larger magnitude. Aftershock sequences follow predictable patterns. That is, a sequence of aftershocks follows certain global patterns as a group, but the individual earthquakes comprising the group are random and unpredictable. This relationship between the pattern of a group and the randomness (stochastic nature) of the individuals has a close parallel in actuarial statistics. We can describe the pattern that aftershock sequences tend to follow with well-constrained equations. However, we must keep in mind that the actual aftershocks are only probabilistically described by these equations. Once the parameters in these equations have been estimated, we can determine the probability of aftershocks occurring in various space, time and magnitude ranges as described below. Clustering of earthquakes usually occurs near the location of the mainshock. The stress on the mainshock's fault changes drastically during the mainshock and that fault produces most of the aftershocks. This causes a change in the regional stress, the size of which decreases rapidly with distance from the mainshock. Sometimes the change in stress caused by the mainshock is great enough to trigger aftershocks on other, nearby faults. While there is no hard "cutoff" distance beyond which an earthquake is totally incapable of triggering an aftershock, the vast majority of aftershocks are located close to the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, we consider earthquakes to be

On the reported ionospheric precursor of the Hector Mine, California earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, J.N.; Love, J.J.; Komjathy, A.; Verkhoglyadova, O.P.; Butala, M.; Rivera, N.

2012-01-01

Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identified as being anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

Earthquake potential in California-Nevada implied by correlation of strain rate and seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeng, Yuehua; Petersen, Mark D.; Shen, Zheng-Kang

2018-01-01

Rock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased significantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate field was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation field evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.

Earthquake Potential in California-Nevada Implied by Correlation of Strain Rate and Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yuehua; Petersen, Mark D.; Shen, Zheng-Kang

2018-02-01

Rock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased significantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate field was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation field evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.

Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kenny J. Ryan,; Geist, Eric L.; Barall, Michael; David D. Oglesby,

2015-01-01

The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our model results in an average stress drop of 6 MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4 m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. Modeled inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.

The 2011 Hawthorne, Nevada, Earthquake Sequence; Shallow Normal Faulting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. D.; Johnson, C.; Davies, J. A.; Agbaje, T.; Knezevic Antonijevic, S.; Kent, G.

2011-12-01

An energetic sequence of shallow earthquakes that began in early March 2011 in western Nevada, near the community of Hawthorne, has slowly decreased in intensity through mid-2011. To date about 1300 reviewed earthquake locations have been compiled; we have computed moment tensors for the larger earthquakes and have developed a set of high-precision locations for all reviewed events. The sequence to date has included over 50 earthquakes ML 3 and larger with the largest at Mw 4.6. Three 6-channel portable stations configured with broadband sensors and accelerometers were installed by April 20. Data from the portable instruments is telemetered through NSL's microwave backbone to Reno where it is integrated with regional network data for real-time notifications, ShakeMaps, and routine event analysis. The data is provided in real-time to NEIC, CISN and the IRIS DMC. The sequence is located in a remote area about 15-20 km southwest of Hawthorne in the footwall block of the Wassuk Range fault system. An initial concern was that the sequence might be associated with volcanic processes due to the proximity of late Quaternary volcanic flows; there have been no volcanic signatures observed in near source seismograms. An additional concern, as the sequence has proceeded, was a clear progression eastward toward the Wassuk Range front fault. The east dipping range bounding fault is capable of M 7+ events, and poses a significant hazard to the community of Hawthorne and local military facilities. The Hawthorne Army Depot is an ordinance storage facility and the nation's storage site for surplus mercury. The sequence is within what has been termed the 'Mina Deflection' of the Central Walker Lane Belt. Faulting along the Whiskey Flat section of the Wassuk front fault would be primarily down-to-the-east, with an E-W extension direction; moment tensors for the 2011 earthquake show a range of extension directions from E-W to NW-SE, suggesting a possible dextral component to the Wassuk

Triggered earthquakes and the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

2001-01-01

The 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, earthquake sequence included at least three events with magnitudes estimated at well above M 7.0. I discuss evidence that the sequence also produced at least three substantial triggered events well outside the New Madrid Seismic Zone, most likely in the vicinity of Cincinnati, Ohio. The largest of these events is estimated to have a magnitude in the low to mid M 5 range. Events of this size are large enough to cause damage, especially in regions with low levels of preparedness. Remotely triggered earthquakes have been observed in tectonically active regions in recent years, but not previously in stable continental regions. The results of this study suggest, however, that potentially damaging triggered earthquakes may be common following large mainshocks in stable continental regions. Thus, in areas of low seismic activity such as central/ eastern North America, the hazard associated with localized source zones might be more far reaching than previously recognized. The results also provide additional evidence that intraplate crust is critically stressed, such that small stress changes are especially effective at triggering earthquakes.

Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, E.; Chen, S.; Chowdhury, F.; Bhaskaran, A.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

2009-12-01

The SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 3000 data channels from 375 SCSN recorded stations. The SCSN and SCEDC process and archive an average of 12,000 earthquakes each year, contributing to the southern California earthquake catalog that spans from 1932 to present. The SCEDC provides public, searchable access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP, NETDC and DHI. New data products: ● The SCEDC is distributing synthetic waveform data from the 2008 ShakeOut scenario (Jones et al., USGS Open File Rep., 2008-1150) and (Graves et al. 2008; Geophys. Res. Lett.) This is a M 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault. Users will be able to download 40 sps velocity waveforms in SAC format from the SCEDC website. The SCEDC is also distributing synthetic GPS data (Crowell et al., 2009; Seismo. Res. Letters.) for this scenario as well. ● The SCEDC has added a new web page to show the latest tomographic model of Southern California. This model is based on Tape et al., 2009 Science. New data services: ● The SCEDC is exporting data in QuakeML format. This is an xml format that has been adopted by the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). This data will also be available as a web service. ● The SCEDC is exporting data in StationXML format. This is an xml format created by the SCEDC and adopted by ANSS to fully describe station metadata. This data will also be available as a web service. ● The stp 1.6 client can now access both the SCEDC and the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) earthquake and waveform archives. In progress - SCEDC to distribute 1 sps GPS data in miniSEED format: ● As part of a NASA Advanced Information Systems Technology project in collaboration with Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the SCEDC will receive real time 1 sps streams of GPS displacement solutions from the California

The Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989 : a brief geologic view of what caused the Loma Prieta earthquake and implications for future California earthquakes: What happened ... what is expected ... what can be done.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, Peter L.; Page, Robert A.

1990-01-01

The San Andreas fault, in California, is the primary boundary between the North American plate and the Pacific plate. Land west of the fault has been moving northwestward relative to land on the east at an average rate of 2 inches per year for millions of years. This motion is not constant but occurs typically in sudden jumps during large earthquakes. This motion is relentless; therefore earthquakes in California are inevitable.

Distributing Earthquakes Among California's Faults: A Binary Integer Programming Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.

2016-12-01

Statement of the problem is simple: given regional seismicity specified by a Gutenber-Richter (G-R) relation, how are earthquakes distributed to match observed fault-slip rates? The objective is to determine the magnitude-frequency relation on individual faults. The California statewide G-R b-value and a-value are estimated from historical seismicity, with the a-value accounting for off-fault seismicity. UCERF3 consensus slip rates are used, based on geologic and geodetic data and include estimates of coupling coefficients. The binary integer programming (BIP) problem is set up such that each earthquake from a synthetic catalog spanning millennia can occur at any location along any fault. The decision vector, therefore, consists of binary variables, with values equal to one indicating the location of each earthquake that results in an optimal match of slip rates, in an L1-norm sense. Rupture area and slip associated with each earthquake are determined from a magnitude-area scaling relation. Uncertainty bounds on the UCERF3 slip rates provide explicit minimum and maximum constraints to the BIP model, with the former more important to feasibility of the problem. There is a maximum magnitude limit associated with each fault, based on fault length, providing an implicit constraint. Solution of integer programming problems with a large number of variables (>105 in this study) has been possible only since the late 1990s. In addition to the classic branch-and-bound technique used for these problems, several other algorithms have been recently developed, including pre-solving, sifting, cutting planes, heuristics, and parallelization. An optimal solution is obtained using a state-of-the-art BIP solver for M≥6 earthquakes and California's faults with slip-rates > 1 mm/yr. Preliminary results indicate a surprising diversity of on-fault magnitude-frequency relations throughout the state.

The 1868 Hayward fault, California, earthquake: Implications for earthquake scaling relations on partially creeping faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey

2015-01-01

The 21 October 1868 Hayward, California, earthquake is among the best-characterized historical earthquakes in California. In contrast to many other moderate-to-large historical events, the causative fault is clearly established. Published magnitude estimates have been fairly consistent, ranging from 6.8 to 7.2, with 95% confidence limits including values as low as 6.5. The magnitude is of particular importance for assessment of seismic hazard associated with the Hayward fault and, more generally, to develop appropriate magnitude–rupture length scaling relations for partially creeping faults. The recent reevaluation of archival accounts by Boatwright and Bundock (2008), together with the growing volume of well-calibrated intensity data from the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, provide an opportunity to revisit and refine the magnitude estimate. In this study, we estimate the magnitude using two different methods that use DYFI data as calibration. Both approaches yield preferred magnitude estimates of 6.3–6.6, assuming an average stress drop. A consideration of data limitations associated with settlement patterns increases the range to 6.3–6.7, with a preferred estimate of 6.5. Although magnitude estimates for historical earthquakes are inevitably uncertain, we conclude that, at a minimum, a lower-magnitude estimate represents a credible alternative interpretation of available data. We further discuss implications of our results for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment from partially creeping faults.

Hydrothermal response to a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm, Lassen, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Shelly, David R.; Hsieh, Paul A.; Clor, Laura; P.H. Seward,; Evans, William C.

2015-01-01

The increasing capability of seismic, geodetic, and hydrothermal observation networks allows recognition of volcanic unrest that could previously have gone undetected, creating an imperative to diagnose and interpret unrest episodes. A November 2014 earthquake swarm near Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, which included the largest earthquake in the area in more than 60 years, was accompanied by a rarely observed outburst of hydrothermal fluids. Although the earthquake swarm likely reflects upward migration of endogenous H2O-CO2 fluids in the source region, there is no evidence that such fluids emerged at the surface. Instead, shaking from the modest sized (moment magnitude 3.85) but proximal earthquake caused near-vent permeability increases that triggered increased outflow of hydrothermal fluids already present and equilibrated in a local hydrothermal aquifer. Long-term, multiparametric monitoring at Lassen and other well-instrumented volcanoes enhances interpretation of unrest and can provide a basis for detailed physical modeling.

Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L.

2006-12-01

In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased

Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D. E.; Yeck, W. L.; Barnhart, W. D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, A.; Hough, S. E.; Benz, H. M.; Earle, P. S.

2017-09-01

The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10-15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNamara, Daniel E.; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, Amod; Hough, S.E.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul

2017-01-01

The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard.Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

8 January 2013 Mw=5.7 North Aegean Sea Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürçer, Akın; Yalçın, Hilal; Gülen, Levent; Kalafat, Doǧan

2014-05-01

The deformation of the North Aegean Sea is mainly controlled by the westernmost segments of North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). On January 8, 2013, a moderate earthquake (Mw= 5.7) occurred in the North Aegean Sea, which may be considered to be a part of westernmost splay of the NAFZ. A series of aftershocks were occurred within four months following the mainschock, which have magnitudes varying from 1.9 to 5.0. In this study, a total of 23 earthquake moment tensor solutions that belong to the 2013 earthquake sequence have been obtained by using KOERI and AFAD seismic data. The most widely used Gephart & Forsyth (1984) and Michael (1987) methods have been used to carry out stress tensor inversions. Based on the earthquake moment tensor solutions, distribution of epicenters and seismotectonic setting, the source of this earthquake sequence is a N75°E trending pure dextral strike-slip fault. The temporal and spatial distribution of earthquakes indicate that the rupture unilaterally propagated from SW to NE. The length of the fault has been calculated as approximately 12 km. using the afterschock distribution and empirical equations, suggested by Wells and Coppersmith (1994). The stress tensor analysis indicate that the dominant faulting type in the region is strike-slip and the direction of the regional compressive stress is WNW-ESE. The 1968 Aghios earthquake (Ms=7.3; Ambraseys and Jackson, 1998) and 2013 North Aegean Sea earthquake sequences clearly show that the regional stress has been transferred from SW to NE in this region. The last historical earthquake, the Bozcaada earthquake (M=7.05) had been occurred in the northeast of the 2013 earthquake sequence in 1672. The elapsed time (342 year) and regional stress transfer point out that the 1672 earthquake segment is probably a seismic gap. According to the empirical equations, the surface rupture length of the 1672 Earthquake segment was about 47 km, with a maximum displacement of 170 cm and average displacement

Injuries and Traumatic Psychological Exposures Associated with the South Napa Earthquake - California, 2014.

PubMed

Attfield, Kathleen R; Dobson, Christine B; Henn, Jennifer B; Acosta, Meileen; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Wilken, Jason A; Barreau, Tracy; Schreiber, Merritt; Windham, Gayle C; Materna, Barbara L; Roisman, Rachel

2015-09-11

On August 24, 2014, at 3:20 a.m., a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck California, with its epicenter in Napa County (1). The earthquake was the largest to affect the San Francisco Bay area in 25 years and caused significant damage in Napa and Solano counties, including widespread power outages, five residential fires, and damage to roadways, waterlines, and 1,600 buildings (2). Two deaths resulted (2). On August 25, Napa County Public Health asked the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) for assistance in assessing postdisaster health effects, including earthquake-related injuries and effects on mental health. On September 23, Solano County Public Health requested similar assistance. A household-level Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) was conducted for these counties in two cities (Napa, 3 weeks after the earthquake, and Vallejo, 6 weeks after the earthquake). Among households reporting injuries, a substantial proportion (48% in Napa and 37% in western Vallejo) reported that the injuries occurred during the cleanup period, suggesting that increased messaging on safety precautions after a disaster might be needed. One fifth of respondents overall (27% in Napa and 9% in western Vallejo) reported one or more traumatic psychological exposures in their households. These findings were used by Napa County Mental Health to guide immediate-term mental health resource allocations and to conduct public training sessions and education campaigns to support persons with mental health risks following the earthquake. In addition, to promote community resilience and future earthquake preparedness, Napa County Public Health subsequently conducted community events on the earthquake anniversary and provided outreach workers with psychological first aid training.

Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: links between wastewater injection and the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keranen, Katie M.; Savage, Heather M.; Abers, Geoffrey A.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2013-01-01

Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an Mw 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of Mw 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ~200 m of active injection wells and within ~1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.

Precisely locating the Klamath Falls, Oregon, earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Qamar, A.; Meagher, K.L.

1993-01-01

In this article we present preliminary results of a close-in, instrumental study of the Klamath Falls earthquake sequence, carried as a cooperative effort by scientists from the U.S Geological Survey (USGS) and universities in Washington, Orgeon, and California. In addition to obtaining much mroe accurate earthquake locations, this study has improved our understanding of the relationship between seismicity and mapped faults in the region. 

Earthquake Rate Model 2.2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Appendix D: Magnitude-Area Relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, Ross S.

2007-01-01

Summary To estimate the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, the Executive Committee has chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the 99% depth of background seismicity to assign W. For the predicted earthquake magnitude-fault area scaling used to estimate the maximum magnitude of an earthquake rupture from a fault's length, L, and W, the Committee has assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2002) (as updated in 2007) equations. The former uses a single relation; the latter uses a bilinear relation which changes slope at M=6.65 (A=537 km2).

Statiscal analysis of an earthquake-induced landslide distribution - The 1989 Loma Prieta, California event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, D.K.

2000-01-01

The 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake (moment magnitude, M=6.9) generated landslides throughout an area of about 15,000 km2 in central California. Most of these landslides occurred in an area of about 2000 km2 in the mountainous terrain around the epicenter, where they were mapped during field investigations immediately following the earthquake. The distribution of these landslides is investigated statistically, using regression and one-way analysisof variance (ANOVA) techniques to determine how the occurrence of landslides correlates with distance from the earthquake source, slope steepness, and rock type. The landslide concentration (defined as the number of landslide sources per unit area) has a strong inverse correlation with distance from the earthquake source and a strong positive correlation with slope steepness. The landslide concentration differs substantially among the various geologic units in the area. The differences correlate to some degree with differences in lithology and degree of induration, but this correlation is less clear, suggesting a more complex relationship between landslide occurrence and rock properties. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The 1998 earthquake sequence south of Long Valley Caldera, California: Hints of magmatic involvement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Dollar, R.S.; Johnson, P.

2000-01-01

A significant episode of seismic and geodetic unrest took place at Long Valley Caldera, California, beginning in the summer of 1997. Activity through late May of 1998 was concentrated in and around the south moat and the south margin of the resurgent dome. The Sierran Nevada block (SNB) region to the south/southeast remained relatively quiet until a M 5.1 event occurred there on 9 June 1998 (UT). A second M 5.1 event followed on 15 July (UT); both events were followed by appreciable aftershock sequences. An additional, distinct burst of activity began on 1 August 1998. The number of events in the August sequence (over the first week or two) was similar to the aftershock sequence of the 15 July 1998 M 5.1 event, but the later sequence was not associated with any events larger than M 4.3. All of the summer 1998 SNB activity was considered tectonic rather than magmatic; in general the SNB is considered an unlikely location for future eruptions. However, the August sequence-an 'aftershock sequence without a mainshock'-is suggestive of a strain event larger than the cumulative seismotectonic strain release. Moreover, a careful examination of waveforms from the August sequence reveals a small handful of events whose spectral signature is strikingly harmonic. We investigate the waveforms of these events using spectral, autocorrelation, and empirical Green's function techniques and conclude that they were most likely associated with a fluid-controlled source. Our observations suggest that there may have been some degree of magma or magma-derived fluid involvement in the 1998 SNB sequence.

One hundred years of earthquake recording at the University of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bolt, B. A.

1987-01-01

The best seismographs then available arrived from England in 1887 and were installed at Lick Observatory on Mt.Hamilton and at the Students Astronomical Observatory on the Berkeley campus. The first California earthquake recorded by the Lick instrument was on April 24, 1887. These seismographic stations have functioned continuously from their founding to the present day, with improvements in instruments from time to time as technology advanced. Now they are part of a sesimogrpahic network of 16 stations recording with great completeness both local and distant earthquakes. 

NASA Satellite Imagery Shows Sparse Population of Region Near Baja, California Earthquake

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-04-09

This image from NASA Terra spacecraft shows where a magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck in Mexico Baja, California at shallow depth along the principal plate boundary between the North American and Pacific plates on April 4, 2010.

On the reported ionospheric precursor of the 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Jeremy N.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Butala, Mark; Rivera, Nicholas

2012-01-01

Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identify as anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

Earthquake swarms and local crustal spreading along major strike-slip faults in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, C.S.; Hill, D.P.

1978-01-01

Earthquake swarms in California are often localized to areas within dextral offsets in the linear trend in active fault strands, suggesting a relation between earthquake swarms and local crustal spreading. Local crustal spereading is required by the geometry of dextral offsets when, as in the San Andreas system, faults have dominantly strike-slip motion with right-lateral displacement. Three clear examples of this relation occur in the Imperial Valley, Coso Hot Springs, and the Danville region, all in California. The first two of these areas are known for their Holocene volcanism and geothermal potential, which is consistent with crustal spreading and magmatic intrusion. The third example, however, shows no evidence for volcanism or geothermal activity at the surface. ?? 1978 Birkha??user Verlag.

Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading in Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.; Di Alessandro, Carola; Boatwright, John; Tinsley, John C.; Sell, Russell W.; Rosenberg, Lewis I.

2004-01-01

The December 22, 2003, San Simeon, California, (M6.5) earthquake caused damage to houses, road surfaces, and underground utilities in Oceano, California. The community of Oceano is approximately 50 miles (80 km) from the earthquake epicenter. Damage at this distance from a M6.5 earthquake is unusual. To understand the causes of this damage, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted extensive subsurface exploration and monitoring of aftershocks in the months after the earthquake. The investigation included 37 seismic cone penetration tests, 5 soil borings, and aftershock monitoring from January 28 to March 7, 2004. The USGS investigation identified two earthquake hazards in Oceano that explain the San Simeon earthquake damage?site amplification and liquefaction. Site amplification is a phenomenon observed in many earthquakes where the strength of the shaking increases abnormally in areas where the seismic-wave velocity of shallow geologic layers is low. As a result, earthquake shaking is felt more strongly than in surrounding areas without similar geologic conditions. Site amplification in Oceano is indicated by the physical properties of the geologic layers beneath Oceano and was confirmed by monitoring aftershocks. Liquefaction, which is also commonly observed during earthquakes, is a phenomenon where saturated sands lose their strength during an earthquake and become fluid-like and mobile. As a result, the ground may undergo large permanent displacements that can damage underground utilities and well-built surface structures. The type of displacement of major concern associated with liquefaction is lateral spreading because it involves displacement of large blocks of ground down gentle slopes or towards stream channels. The USGS investigation indicates that the shallow geologic units beneath Oceano are very susceptible to liquefaction. They include young sand dunes and clean sandy artificial fill that was used to bury and convert marshes into developable lots. Most of

Remotely triggered earthquakes following moderate main shocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

2007-01-01

Since 1992, remotely triggered earthquakes have been identified following large (M > 7) earthquakes in California as well as in other regions. These events, which occur at much greater distances than classic aftershocks, occur predominantly in active geothermal or volcanic regions, leading to theories that the earthquakes are triggered when passing seismic waves cause disruptions in magmatic or other fluid systems. In this paper, I focus on observations of remotely triggered earthquakes following moderate main shocks in diverse tectonic settings. I summarize evidence that remotely triggered earthquakes occur commonly in mid-continent and collisional zones. This evidence is derived from analysis of both historic earthquake sequences and from instrumentally recorded M5-6 earthquakes in eastern Canada. The latter analysis suggests that, while remotely triggered earthquakes do not occur pervasively following moderate earthquakes in eastern North America, a low level of triggering often does occur at distances beyond conventional aftershock zones. The inferred triggered events occur at the distances at which SmS waves are known to significantly increase ground motions. A similar result was found for 28 recent M5.3-7.1 earthquakes in California. In California, seismicity is found to increase on average to a distance of at least 200 km following moderate main shocks. This supports the conclusion that, even at distances of ???100 km, dynamic stress changes control the occurrence of triggered events. There are two explanations that can account for the occurrence of remotely triggered earthquakes in intraplate settings: (1) they occur at local zones of weakness, or (2) they occur in zones of local stress concentration. ?? 2007 The Geological Society of America.

Chapter B. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Forecasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Ruth A.

1998-01-01

The magnitude (Mw) 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay region of central California at 5:04 p.m. P.d.t. on October 17, 1989, killing 62 people and generating billions of dollars in property damage. Scientists were not surprised by the occurrence of a destructive earthquake in this region and had, in fact, been attempting to forecast the location of the next large earthquake in the San Francisco Bay region for decades. This paper summarizes more than 20 scientifically based forecasts made before the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake for a large earthquake that might occur in the Loma Prieta area. The forecasts geographically closest to the actual earthquake primarily consisted of right-lateral strike-slip motion on the San Andreas Fault northwest of San Juan Bautista. Several of the forecasts did encompass the magnitude of the actual earthquake, and at least one approximately encompassed the along-strike rupture length. The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake differed from most of the forecasted events in two ways: (1) it occurred with considerable dip-slip in addition to strike-slip motion, and (2) it was much deeper than expected.

Preliminary Analysis of Remote Triggered Seismicity in Northern Baja California Generated by the 2011, Tohoku-Oki, Japan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Ortega, V.; Castro, R. R.; Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Velasco, A. A.

2013-05-01

We analyze possible variations of seismicity in the northern Baja California due to the passage of seismic waves from the 2011, M9.0, Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake. The northwestern area of Baja California is characterized by a mountain range composed of crystalline rocks. These Peninsular Ranges of Baja California exhibits high microseismic activity and moderate size earthquakes. In the eastern region of Baja California shearing between the Pacific and the North American plates takes place and the Imperial and Cerro-Prieto faults generate most of the seismicity. The seismicity in these regions is monitored by the seismic network RESNOM operated by the Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE). This network consists of 13 three-component seismic stations. We use the seismic catalog of RESNOM to search for changes in local seismic rates occurred after the passing of surface waves generated by the Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake. When we compare one month of seismicity before and after the M9.0 earthquake, the preliminary analysis shows absence of triggered seismicity in the northern Peninsular Ranges and an increase of seismicity south of the Mexicali valley where the Imperial fault jumps southwest and the Cerro Prieto fault continues.

Maximum Magnitude and Probabilities of Induced Earthquakes in California Geothermal Fields: Applications for a Science-Based Decision Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiser, Deborah Anne

Induced seismicity is occurring at increasing rates around the country. Brodsky and Lajoie (2013) and others have recognized anthropogenic quakes at a few geothermal fields in California. I use three techniques to assess if there are induced earthquakes in California geothermal fields; there are three sites with clear induced seismicity: Brawley, The Geysers, and Salton Sea. Moderate to strong evidence is found at Casa Diablo, Coso, East Mesa, and Susanville. Little to no evidence is found for Heber and Wendel. I develop a set of tools to reduce or cope with the risk imposed by these earthquakes, and also to address uncertainties through simulations. I test if an earthquake catalog may be bounded by an upper magnitude limit. I address whether the earthquake record during pumping time is consistent with the past earthquake record, or if injection can explain all or some of the earthquakes. I also present ways to assess the probability of future earthquake occurrence based on past records. I summarize current legislation for eight states where induced earthquakes are of concern. Unlike tectonic earthquakes, the hazard from induced earthquakes has the potential to be modified. I discuss direct and indirect mitigation practices. I present a framework with scientific and communication techniques for assessing uncertainty, ultimately allowing more informed decisions to be made.

Distribution of intensity for the Westmorland, California, earthquake of April 26, 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnhard, L.M.; Thenhaus, P.C.; Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore

1982-01-01

The maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of the April 26, 1981 earthquake located 5 km northwest of Westmorland, California is VII. Twelve buildings in Westmorland were severely damaged with an additional 30 sustaining minor damage. Two brick parapets fell in Calipatria, 14 km northeast of Westmorland and 10 km from the earthquake epicenter. Significant damage in rural areas was restricted to unreinforced, concrete-lined irrigation canals. Liquefaction effects and ground slumping were widespread in rural areas and were the primary causes of road cracking. Preliminary local government estimates of property loss range from one to three million dollars (Imperial Valley Press, 1981). The earthquake was felt over an area of approximately 160,000 km2; about the same felt area of the October 15, 1979 (Reagor and others, 1980), and May 18, 1940 (Ulrich, 1941) Imperial Valley earthquakes.

Archiving and Distributing Seismic Data at the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appel, V. L.

2002-12-01

The Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) archives and provides public access to earthquake parametric and waveform data gathered by the Southern California Seismic Network and since January 1, 2001, the TriNet seismic network, southern California's earthquake monitoring network. The parametric data in the archive includes earthquake locations, magnitudes, moment-tensor solutions and phase picks. The SCEDC waveform archive prior to TriNet consists primarily of short-period, 100-samples-per-second waveforms from the SCSN. The addition of the TriNet array added continuous recordings of 155 broadband stations (20 samples per second or less), and triggered seismograms from 200 accelerometers and 200 short-period instruments. Since the Data Center and TriNet use the same Oracle database system, new earthquake data are available to the seismological community in near real-time. Primary access to the database and waveforms is through the Seismogram Transfer Program (STP) interface. The interface enables users to search the database for earthquake information, phase picks, and continuous and triggered waveform data. Output is available in SAC, miniSEED, and other formats. Both the raw counts format (V0) and the gain-corrected format (V1) of COSMOS (Consortium of Organizations for Strong-Motion Observation Systems) are now supported by STP. EQQuest is an interface to prepackaged waveform data sets for select earthquakes in Southern California stored at the SCEDC. Waveform data for large-magnitude events have been prepared and new data sets will be available for download in near real-time following major events. The parametric data from 1981 to present has been loaded into the Oracle 9.2.0.1 database system and the waveforms for that time period have been converted to mSEED format and are accessible through the STP interface. The DISC optical-disk system (the "jukebox") that currently serves as the mass-storage for the SCEDC is in the process of being replaced

Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment.

PubMed

Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian

2009-11-05

One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere.

CISN ShakeAlert: Using early warnings for earthquakes in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinci, M.; Hellweg, M.; Jones, L. M.; Khainovski, O.; Schwartz, K.; Lehrer, D.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

2009-12-01

Educated users who have developed response plans and procedures are just as important for an earthquake early warning (EEW) system as are the algorithms and computers that process the data and produce the warnings. In Japan, for example, the implementation of the EEW system which now provides advanced alerts of ground shaking included intense outreach efforts to both institutional and individual recipients. Alerts are now used in automatic control systems that stop trains, place sensitive equipment in safe mode and isolate hazards while the public takes cover. In California, the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is now developing and implementing components of a prototype system for EEW, ShakeAlert. As this processing system is developed, we invite a suite of perspective users from critical industries and institutions throughout California to partner with us in developing useful ShakeAlert products and procedures. At the same time, we will support their efforts to determine and implement appropriate responses to an early warning of earthquake shaking. As a first step, in a collaboration with BART, we have developed a basic system allowing BART’s operation center to receive realtime ground shaking information from more than 150 seismic stations operating in the San Francisco Bay Area. BART engineers are implementing a display system for this information. Later phases will include the development of improved response procedures utilizing this information. We plan to continue this collaboration to include more sophisticated information from the prototype CISN ShakeAlert system.

Impact of a Large San Andreas Fault Earthquake on Tall Buildings in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, S.; Ji, C.; Komatitsch, D.; Tromp, J.

2004-12-01

In 1857, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred on the San Andreas fault, starting at Parkfield and rupturing in a southeasterly direction for more than 300~km. Such a unilateral rupture produces significant directivity toward the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins. The strong shaking in the basins due to this earthquake would have had a significant long-period content (2--8~s). If such motions were to happen today, they could have a serious impact on tall buildings in Southern California. In order to study the effects of large San Andreas fault earthquakes on tall buildings in Southern California, we use the finite source of the magnitude 7.9 2001 Denali fault earthquake in Alaska and map it onto the San Andreas fault with the rupture originating at Parkfield and proceeding southward over a distance of 290~km. Using the SPECFEM3D spectral element seismic wave propagation code, we simulate a Denali-like earthquake on the San Andreas fault and compute ground motions at sites located on a grid with a 2.5--5.0~km spacing in the greater Southern California region. We subsequently analyze 3D structural models of an existing tall steel building designed in 1984 as well as one designed according to the current building code (Uniform Building Code, 1997) subjected to the computed ground motion. We use a sophisticated nonlinear building analysis program, FRAME3D, that has the ability to simulate damage in buildings due to three-component ground motion. We summarize the performance of these structural models on contour maps of carefully selected structural performance indices. This study could benefit the city in laying out emergency response strategies in the event of an earthquake on the San Andreas fault, in undertaking appropriate retrofit measures for tall buildings, and in formulating zoning regulations for new construction. In addition, the study would provide risk data associated with existing and new construction to insurance companies, real estate developers, and

Chapter B. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Highway Systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yashinsky, Mark

1998-01-01

This paper summarizes the impact of the Loma Prieta earthquake on highway systems. City streets, urban freeways, county roads, state routes, and the national highway system were all affected. There was damage to bridges, roads, tunnels, and other highway structures. The most serious damage occurred in the cities of San Francisco and Oakland, 60 miles from the fault rupture. The cost to repair and replace highways damaged by this earthquake was $2 billion. About half of this cost was to replace the Cypress Viaduct, a long, elevated double-deck expressway that had a devastating collapse which resulted in 42 deaths and 108 injuries. The earthquake also resulted in some positive changes for highway systems. Research on bridges and earthquakes began to be funded at a much higher level. Retrofit programs were started to upgrade the seismic performance of the nation's highways. The Loma Prieta earthquake changed earthquake policy and engineering practice for highway departments not only in California, but all over the world.

Nonlinear site response in medium magnitude earthquakes near Parkfield, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubinstein, Justin L.

2011-01-01

Careful analysis of strong-motion recordings of 13 medium magnitude earthquakes (3.7 ≤ M ≤ 6.5) in the Parkfield, California, area shows that very modest levels of shaking (approximately 3.5% of the acceleration of gravity) can produce observable changes in site response. Specifically, I observe a drop and subsequent recovery of the resonant frequency at sites that are part of the USGS Parkfield dense seismograph array (UPSAR) and Turkey Flat array. While further work is necessary to fully eliminate other models, given that these frequency shifts correlate with the strength of shaking at the Turkey Flat array and only appear for the strongest shaking levels at UPSAR, the most plausible explanation for them is that they are a result of nonlinear site response. Assuming this to be true, the observation of nonlinear site response in small (M M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake and the 2004 M 6 Parkfield earthquake).

Contrasts between source parameters of M [>=] 5. 5 earthquakes in northern Baja California and southern California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doser, D.I.

1993-04-01

Source parameters determined from the body waveform modeling of large (M [>=] 5.5) historic earthquakes occurring between 1915 and 1956 along the San Jacinto and Imperial fault zones of southern California and the Cerro Prieto, Tres Hermanas and San Miguel fault zones of Baja California have been combined with information from post-1960's events to study regional variations in source parameters. The results suggest that large earthquakes along the relatively young San Miguel and Tres Hermanas fault zones have complex rupture histories, small source dimensions (< 25 km), high stress drops (60 bar average), and a high incidence of foreshock activity.more » This may be a reflection of the rough, highly segmented nature of the young faults. In contrast, Imperial-Cerro Prieto events of similar magnitude have low stress drops (16 bar average) and longer rupture lengths (42 km average), reflecting rupture along older, smoother fault planes. Events along the San Jacinto fault zone appear to lie in between these two groups. These results suggest a relationship between the structural and seismological properties of strike-slip faults that should be considered during seismic risk studies.« less

Prospective Tests of Southern California Earthquake Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, D. D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Helmstetter, A.; Wiemer, S.; Field, N.

2004-12-01

We are testing earthquake forecast models prospectively using likelihood ratios. Several investigators have developed such models as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's project called Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM). Various models are based on fault geometry and slip rates, seismicity, geodetic strain, and stress interactions. Here we describe the testing procedure and present preliminary results. Forecasts are expressed as the yearly rate of earthquakes within pre-specified bins of longitude, latitude, magnitude, and focal mechanism parameters. We test models against each other in pairs, which requires that both forecasts in a pair be defined over the same set of bins. For this reason we specify a standard "menu" of bins and ground rules to guide forecasters in using common descriptions. One menu category includes five-year forecasts of magnitude 5.0 and larger. Contributors will be requested to submit forecasts in the form of a vector of yearly earthquake rates on a 0.1 degree grid at the beginning of the test. Focal mechanism forecasts, when available, are also archived and used in the tests. Interim progress will be evaluated yearly, but final conclusions would be made on the basis of cumulative five-year performance. The second category includes forecasts of earthquakes above magnitude 4.0 on a 0.1 degree grid, evaluated and renewed daily. Final evaluation would be based on cumulative performance over five years. Other types of forecasts with different magnitude, space, and time sampling are welcome and will be tested against other models with shared characteristics. Tests are based on the log likelihood scores derived from the probability that future earthquakes would occur where they do if a given forecast were true [Kagan and Jackson, J. Geophys. Res.,100, 3,943-3,959, 1995]. For each pair of forecasts, we compute alpha, the probability that the first would be wrongly rejected in favor of the second, and beta, the probability

Historigraphical analysis of the 1857 Ft. Tejon earthquake, San Andreas Fault, California: Preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martindale, D.; Evans, J. P.

2002-12-01

Past historical analyses of the 1857 Forth Tejon earthquake include Townley and Allen (1939); Wood (1955) re-examined the earthquake and added some additional new material, and Agnew and Sieh (1978) published an extensive review of the previous publications and included primary sources not formerly known. Since 1978, most authors have reiterated the findings of Agnew and Sieh, with the exception of Meltzner and Wald's 1998 work that built on Sieh's foreshock research and included an extensive study of aftershocks. Approximately twenty-five years has past since the last full investigation of the event. In the last several decades, libraries and archives have continued to gather additional documents. Staff members continually inventory new and existing collections, making them accessible to researchers today. As a result, we are conducting an updated examination, with the hope of new insight regarding the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. We use a new approached to the topic: the research skills of a historian in collaboration with a geologist to generate quantitative data on the nature and location of ground shaking associated with the earthquake. We analyze documents from the Huntington Library, California State Historical Society, California State Library-California Room, Utah Historical Association Information Center, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) Archives and Historical Department, Cal Tech Archives, the National Archives, and the Fort Tejon State Park. New facilities reviewed also include Utah State University, University of Utah, and the LDS Family History Center. Each facility not only provided formerly quoted sources, but many offered new materials. For example, previous scholars examined popular, well-known newspapers; yet, publications in smaller towns and in languages other than English, also existed. Thirty newspapers published in January 1857 were located. We find records of the event at least one year after the earthquake. One outcome

Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shelly, David R.

2010-01-01

Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between ~3 and ~6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

Relative Contributions of Geothermal Pumping and Long-Term Earthquake Rate to Seismicity at California Geothermal Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiser, D. A.; Jackson, D. D.

2015-12-01

In a tectonically active area, a definitive discrimination between geothermally-induced and tectonic earthquakes is difficult to achieve. We focus our study on California's 11 major geothermal fields: Amedee, Brawley, Casa Diablo, Coso, East Mesa, The Geysers, Heber, Litchfield, Salton Sea, Susanville, and Wendel. The Geysers geothermal field is the world's largest geothermal energy producer. California's Department of Oil Gas and Geothermal Resources provides field-wide monthly injection and production volumes for each of these sites, which allows us to study the relationship between geothermal pumping activities and seismicity. Since many of the geothermal fields began injecting and producing before nearby seismic stations were installed, we use smoothed seismicity since 1932 from the ANSS catalog as a proxy for tectonic earthquake rate. We examine both geothermal pumping and long-term earthquake rate as factors that may control earthquake rate. Rather than focusing only on the largest earthquake, which is essentially a random occurrence in time, we examine how M≥4 earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitude) varies for each field. We estimate relative contributions to the observed earthquake rate of M≥4 from both a long-term earthquake rate (Kagan and Jackson, 2010) and pumping activity. For each geothermal field, respective earthquake catalogs (NCEDC and SCSN) are complete above at least M3 during the test period (which we tailor to each site). We test the hypothesis that the observed earthquake rate at a geothermal site during the test period is a linear combination of the long-term seismicity and pumping rates. We use a grid search to determine the confidence interval of the weighting parameters.

Numerical Simulation of Stress evolution and earthquake sequence of the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Peiyu; Hu, Caibo; Shi, Yaolin

2015-04-01

The India-Eurasia's collision produces N-S compression and results in large thrust fault in the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Differential eastern flow of the lower crust of the plateau leads to large strike-slip faults and normal faults within the plateau. From 1904 to 2014, more than 30 earthquakes of Mw > 6.5 occurred sequentially in this distinctive tectonic environment. How did the stresses evolve during the last 110 years, how did the earthquakes interact with each other? Can this knowledge help us to forecast the future seismic hazards? In this essay, we tried to simulate the evolution of the stress field and the earthquake sequence in the Tibetan plateau within the last 110 years with a 2-D finite element model. Given an initial state of stress, the boundary condition was constrained by the present-day GPS observation, which was assumed as a constant rate during the 110 years. We calculated stress evolution year by year, and earthquake would occur if stress exceed the crustal strength. Stress changes due to each large earthquake in the sequence was calculated and contributed to the stress evolution. A key issue is the choice of initial stress state of the modeling, which is actually unknown. Usually, in the study of earthquake triggering, people assume the initial stress is zero, and only calculate the stress changes by large earthquakes - the Coulomb failure stress changes (Δ CFS). To some extent, this simplified method is a powerful tool because it can reveal which fault or which part of a fault becomes more risky or safer relatively. Nonetheless, it has not utilized all information available to us. The earthquake sequence reveals, though far from complete, some information about the stress state in the region. If the entire region is close to a self-organized critical or subcritical state, earthquake stress drop provides an estimate of lower limit of initial state. For locations no earthquakes occurred during the period, initial stress has to be

The 2007 Mentawai earthquake sequence on the Sumatra megathrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konca, A.; Avouac, J.; Sladen, A.; Meltzner, A. J.; Kositsky, A. P.; Sieh, K.; Fang, P.; Li, Z.; Galetzka, J.; Genrich, J.; Chlieh, M.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Bock, Y.; Fielding, E. J.; Helmberger, D. V.

2008-12-01

The Sumatra Megathrust has recently produced a flurry of large interplate earthquakes starting with the giant Mw 9.15, Aceh earthquake of 2004. All of these earthquakes occurred within the area monitored by the Sumatra Geodetic Array (SuGAr), which provided exceptional records of near-field co-seismic and postseismic ground displacements. The most recent of these major earthquakes, an Mw 8.4 earthquake and an Mw 7.9 earthquake twelve hours later, occurred in the Mentawai islands area where devastating historical earthquakes had happened in 1797 and 1833. The 2007 earthquake sequence provides an exceptional opportunity to understand the variability of the earthquakes along megathrusts and their relation to interseismic coupling. The InSAR, GPS and teleseismic modeling shows that 2007 earthquakes ruptured a fraction of the strongly coupled Mentawai patch of the megathrust, which is also only a fraction of the 1833 rupture area. It also released a much smaller moment than the one released in 1833, or than the deficit of moment that has accumulated since. Both earthquakes of 2007 consist of 2 sub-events which are 50 to 100 km apart from each other. On the other hand, the northernmost slip patch of 8.4 and southern slip patch of 7.9 earthquakes abut each other, but they ruptured 12 hours apart. Sunda megathrust earthquakes of recent years include a rupture of a strongly coupled patch that closely mimics a prior rupture of that patch and which is well correlated with the interseismic coupling pattern (Nias-Simeulue section), as well as a rupture sequence of a strongly coupled patch that differs substantially in the details from its most recent predecessors (Mentawai section). We conclude that (1) seismic asperities are probably persistent features which arise form heterogeneous strain build up in the interseismic period; and (2) the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different ways depending on whether asperities break as isolated events or cooperate to produce

A 30-year history of earthquake crisis communication in California and lessons for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L.

2015-12-01

The first statement from the US Geological Survey to the California Office of Emergency Services quantifying the probability of a possible future earthquake was made in October 1985 about the probability (approximately 5%) that a M4.7 earthquake located directly beneath the Coronado Bay Bridge in San Diego would be a foreshock to a larger earthquake. In the next 30 years, publication of aftershock advisories have become routine and formal statements about the probability of a larger event have been developed in collaboration with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) and sent to CalOES more than a dozen times. Most of these were subsequently released to the public. These communications have spanned a variety of approaches, with and without quantification of the probabilities, and using different ways to express the spatial extent and the magnitude distribution of possible future events. The USGS is re-examining its approach to aftershock probability statements and to operational earthquake forecasting with the goal of creating pre-vetted automated statements that can be released quickly after significant earthquakes. All of the previous formal advisories were written during the earthquake crisis. The time to create and release a statement became shorter with experience from the first public advisory (to the 1988 Lake Elsman earthquake) that was released 18 hours after the triggering event, but was never completed in less than 2 hours. As was done for the Parkfield experiment, the process will be reviewed by CEPEC and NEPEC (National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council) so the statements can be sent to the public automatically. This talk will review the advisories, the variations in wording and the public response and compare this with social science research about successful crisis communication, to create recommendations for future advisories

Near-field investigations of the Landers earthquake sequence, April to July 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sieh, K.; Jones, L.; Hauksson, E.; Hudnut, K.; Eberhart-Phillips, D.; Heaton, T.; Hough, S.; Hutton, K.; Kanamori, H.; Lilje, A.; Lindvall, Scott; McGill, S.F.; Mori, J.; Rubin, C.; Spotila, J.A.; Stock, J.; Thio, H.K.; Treiman, J.; Wernicke, B.; Zachariasen, J.

1993-01-01

The Landers earthquake, which had a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.3, was the largest earthquake to strike the contiguous United States in 40 years. This earthquake resulted from the rupture of five major and many minor right-lateral faults near the southern end of the eastern California shear zone, just north of the San Andreas fault. Its Mw 6.1 preshock and Mw 6.2 aftershock had their own aftershocks and foreshocks. Surficial geological observations are consistent with local and far-field seismologic observations of the earthquake. Large surficial offsets (as great as 6 meters) and a relatively short rupture length (85 kilometers) are consistent with seismological calculations of a high stress drop (200 bars), which is in turn consistent with an apparently long recurrence interval for these faults.

Superficial simplicity of the 2010 El Mayorg-Cucapah earthquake of Baja California in Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wei, S.; Fielding, E.; Leprince, S.; Sladen, A.; Avouac, J.-P.; Helmberger, D.; Hauksson, E.; Chu, R.; Simons, M.; Hudnut, K.; Herring, T.; Briggs, R.

2011-01-01

The geometry of faults is usually thought to be more complicated at the surface than at depth and to control the initiation, propagation and arrest of seismic ruptures1-6. The fault system that runs from southern California into Mexico is a simple strike-slip boundary: the west side of California and Mexico moves northwards with respect to the east. However, the Mw 7.2 2010 El Mayorg-Cucapah earthquake on this fault system produced a pattern of seismic waves that indicates a far more complex source than slip on a planar strike-slip fault. Here we use geodetic, remote-sensing and seismological data to reconstruct the fault geometry and history of slip during this earthquake. We find that the earthquake produced a straight 120-km-long fault trace that cut through the Cucapah mountain range and across the Colorado River delta. However, at depth, the fault is made up of two different segments connected by a small extensional fault. Both segments strike N130 ??E, but dip in opposite directions. The earthquake was initiated on the connecting extensional fault and 15s later ruptured the two main segments with dominantly strike-slip motion. We show that complexities in the fault geometry at depth explain well the complex pattern of radiated seismic waves. We conclude that the location and detailed characteristics of the earthquake could not have been anticipated on the basis of observations of surface geology alone. ?? 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Triggered seismicity and deformation between the Landers, California, and Little Skull Mountain, Nevada, earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodin, Paul; Gomberg, Joan

1994-01-01

This article presents evidence for the channeling of strain energy released by the Ms = 7.4 Landers, California, earthquake within the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ). We document an increase in seismicity levels during the 22-hr period starting with the Landers earthquake and culminating 22 hr later with the Ms = 5.4 Little Skull Mountain (LSM), Nevada, earthquake. We evaluate the completeness of regional seismicity catalogs during this period and find that the continuity of post-Landers strain release within the ECSZ is even more pronounced than is evident from the catalog data. We hypothesize that regional-scale connectivity of faults within the ECSZ and LSM region is a critical ingredient in the unprecedented scale and distribution of remotely triggered earthquakes and geodetically manifest strain changes that followed the Landers earthquake. The viability of static strain changes as triggering agents is tested using numerical models. Modeling results illustrate that regional-scale fault connectivity can increase the static strain changes by approximately an order of magnitude at distances of at least 280 km, the distance between the Landers and LSM epicenters. This is possible for models that include both a network of connected faults that slip “sympathetically” and realistic levels of tectonic prestrain. Alternatively, if dynamic strains are a more significant triggering agent than static strains, ECSZ structure may still be important in determining the distribution of triggered seismic and aseismic deformation.

The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: Promoting Earthquake and Tsunami Resilience on California's North Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L. A.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

2014-12-01

In historic times, Northern California has suffered the greatest losses from tsunamis in the U.S. contiguous 48 states. 39 tsunamis have been recorded in the region since 1933, including five that caused damage. This paper describes the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization formed in 1996 to address the tsunami threat from both near and far sources. It includes representatives from government agencies, public, private and volunteer organizations, academic institutions, and individuals interested in working to reduce tsunami risk. The geographic isolation and absence of scientific agencies such as the USGS and CGS in the region, and relatively frequent occurrence of both earthquakes and tsunami events has created a unique role for the RCTWG, with activities ranging from basic research to policy and education and outreach programs. Regional interest in tsunami issues began in the early 1990s when there was relatively little interest in tsunamis elsewhere in the state. As a result, the group pioneered tsunami messaging and outreach programs. Beginning in 2008, the RCTWG has partnered with the National Weather Service and the California Office of Emergency Services in conducting the annual "live code" tsunami communications tests, the only area outside of Alaska to do so. In 2009, the RCTWG joined with the Southern California Earthquake Alliance and the Bay Area Earthquake Alliance to form the Earthquake Country Alliance to promote a coordinated and consistent approach to both earthquake and tsunami preparedness throughout the state. The RCTWG has produced and promoted a variety of preparedness projects including hazard mapping and sign placement, an annual "Earthquake - Tsunami Room" at County Fairs, public service announcements and print material, assisting in TsunamiReady community recognition, and facilitating numerous multi-agency, multidiscipline coordinated exercises, and community evacuation drills. Nine assessment surveys from 1993 to 2013

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence.

PubMed

Kato, Aitaro; Nakamura, Kouji; Hiyama, Yohei

2016-01-01

Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An M j 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an M j 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest.

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

PubMed Central

KATO, Aitaro; NAKAMURA, Kouji; HIYAMA, Yohei

2016-01-01

Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An Mj 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an Mj 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest. PMID:27725474

Potential earthquake faults offshore Southern California, from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, M.A.; Sorlien, C.C.; Sliter, R.W.

2009-01-01

Urban areas in Southern California are at risk from major earthquakes, not only quakes generated by long-recognized onshore faults but also ones that occur along poorly understood offshore faults. We summarize recent research findings concerning these lesser known faults. Research by the U.S. Geological Survey during the past five years indicates that these faults from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point pose a potential earthquake threat. Historical seismicity in this area indicates that, in general, offshore faults can unleash earthquakes having at least moderate (M 5-6) magnitude. Estimating the earthquake hazard in Southern California is complicated by strain partitioning and by inheritance of structures from early tectonic episodes. The three main episodes are Mesozoic through early Miocene subduction, early Miocene crustal extension coeval with rotation of the Western Transverse Ranges, and Pliocene and younger transpression related to plate-boundary motion along the San Andreas Fault. Additional complication in the analysis of earthquake hazards derives from the partitioning of tectonic strain into strike-slip and thrust components along separate but kinematically related faults. The eastern Santa Barbara Basin is deformed by large active reverse and thrust faults, and this area appears to be underlain regionally by the north-dipping Channel Islands thrust fault. These faults could produce moderate to strong earthquakes and destructive tsunamis. On the Malibu coast, earthquakes along offshore faults could have left-lateral-oblique focal mechanisms, and the Santa Monica Mountains thrust fault, which underlies the oblique faults, could give rise to large (M ??7) earthquakes. Offshore faults near Santa Monica Bay and the San Pedro shelf are likely to produce both strike-slip and thrust earthquakes along northwest-striking faults. In all areas, transverse structures, such as lateral ramps and tear faults, which crosscut the main faults, could

Winnetka deformation zone: Surface expression of coactive slip on a blind fault during the Northridge earthquake sequence, California. Evidence that coactive faulting occurred in the Canoga Park, Winnetka, and Northridge areas during the 17 January 1994, Northridge, California earthquake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cruikshank, K.M.; Johnson, A.M.; Fleming, R.W.

1996-12-31

Measurements of normalized length changes of streets over an area of 9 km{sup 2} in San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles, California, define a distinctive strain pattern that may well reflect blind faulting during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Strain magnitudes are about 3 {times} 10{sup {minus}4}, locally 10{sup {minus}3}. They define a deformation zone trending diagonally from near Canoga Park in the southwest, through Winnetka, to near Northridge in the northeast. The deformation zone is about 4.5 km long and 1 km wide. The northwestern two-thirds of the zone is a belt of extension of streets, and the southeastern one-thirdmore » is a belt of shortening of streets. On the northwest and southeast sides of the deformation zone the magnitude of the strains is too small to measure, less than 10{sup {minus}4}. Complete states of strain measured in the northeastern half of the deformation zone show that the directions of principal strains are parallel and normal to the walls of the zone, so the zone is not a strike-slip zone. The magnitudes of strains measured in the northeastern part of the Winnetka area were large enough to fracture concrete and soils, and the area of larger strains correlates with the area of greater damage to such roads and sidewalks. All parts of the pattern suggest a blind fault at depth, most likely a reverse fault dipping northwest but possibly a normal fault dipping southeast. The magnitudes of the strains in the Winnetka area are consistent with the strains produced at the ground surface by a blind fault plane extending to depth on the order of 2 km and a net slip on the order of 1 m, within a distance of about 100 to 500 m of the ground surface. The pattern of damage in the San Fernando Valley suggests a fault segment much longer than the 4.5 km defined by survey data in the Winnetka area. The blind fault segment may extend several kilometers in both directions beyond the Winnetka area. This study of the Winnetka area further supports

Fluid‐driven seismicity response of the Rinconada fault near Paso Robles, California, to the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2012-01-01

The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused significant damage in the city of Paso Robles and a persistent cluster of aftershocks close to Paso Robles near the Rinconada fault. Given the importance of secondary aftershock triggering in sequences of large events, a concern is whether this cluster of events could trigger another damaging earthquake near Paso Robles. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is fit to the Rinconada seismicity, and multiple realizations indicate a 0.36% probability of at least one M≥6.0 earthquake during the next 30 years. However, this probability estimate is only as good as the projection into the future of the ETAS model. There is evidence that the seismicity may be influenced by fluid pressure changes, which cannot be forecasted using ETAS. The strongest evidence for fluids is the delay between the San Simeon mainshock and a high rate of seismicity in mid to late 2004. This delay can be explained as having been caused by a pore pressure decrease due to an undrained response to the coseismic dilatation, followed by increased pore pressure during the return to equilibrium. Seismicity migration along the fault also suggests fluid involvement, although the migration is too slow to be consistent with pore pressure diffusion. All other evidence, including focal mechanisms and b‐value, is consistent with tectonic earthquakes. This suggests a model where the role of fluid pressure changes is limited to the first seven months, while the fluid pressure equilibrates. The ETAS modeling adequately fits the events after July 2004 when the pore pressure stabilizes. The ETAS models imply that while the probability of a damaging earthquake on the Rinconada fault has approximately doubled due to the San Simeon earthquake, the absolute probability remains low.

An empirical model for earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, P.A.; Hanks, T.C.; Bakun, W.H.

2003-01-01

The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of earthquake activity. We use variations in the rate of earthquakes as a basis for a simple empirical model for estimating the probability of M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR. The model preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities' (WGCEP, 1999; WGCEP, 2002) model of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the region since 1838. When the empirical model is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ≥6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP (1988), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP (1999) and WGCEP (2002), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP (1990), WGCEP (1999), and WGCEP (2002), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large earthquakes. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical model represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other modeling methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of earthquakes is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical model alone (or any other single probability model) for estimating the

Spatio-temporal Variations of Characteristic Repeating Earthquake Sequences along the Middle America Trench in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, L. A.; Taira, T.; Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Santoyo, M. A.

2015-12-01

Repeating earthquake sequences are sets of events that are thought to rupture the same area on the plate interface and thus provide nearly identical waveforms. We systematically analyzed seismic records from 2001 through 2014 to identify repeating earthquakes with highly correlated waveforms occurring along the subduction zone of the Cocos plate. Using the correlation coefficient (cc) and spectral coherency (coh) of the vertical components as selection criteria, we found a set of 214 sequences whose waveforms exceed cc≥95% and coh≥95%. Spatial clustering along the trench shows large variations in repeating earthquakes activity. Particularly, the rupture zone of the M8.1, 1985 earthquake shows an almost absence of characteristic repeating earthquakes, whereas the Guerrero Gap zone and the segment of the trench close to the Guerrero-Oaxaca border shows a significantly larger number of repeating earthquakes sequences. Furthermore, temporal variations associated to stress changes due to major shows episodes of unlocking and healing of the interface. Understanding the different components that control the location and recurrence time of characteristic repeating sequences is a key factor to pinpoint areas where large megathrust earthquakes may nucleate and consequently to improve the seismic hazard assessment.

Rupture processes of the 2013-2014 Minab earthquake sequence, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kintner, Jonas A.; Ammon, Charles J.; Cleveland, K. Michael; Herman, Matthew

2018-06-01

We constrain epicentroid locations, magnitudes and depths of moderate-magnitude earthquakes in the 2013-2014 Minab sequence using surface-wave cross-correlations, surface-wave spectra and teleseismic body-wave modelling. We estimate precise relative locations of 54 Mw ≥ 3.8 earthquakes using 48 409 teleseismic, intermediate-period Rayleigh and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements. To reduce significant regional biases in our relative locations, we shift the relative locations to align the Mw 6.2 main-shock centroid to a location derived from an independent InSAR fault model. Our relocations suggest that the events lie along a roughly east-west trend that is consistent with the faulting geometry in the GCMT catalogue. The results support previous studies that suggest the sequence consists of left-lateral strain release, but better defines the main-shock fault length and shows that most of the Mw ≥ 5.0 aftershocks occurred on one or two similarly oriented structures. We also show that aftershock activity migrated westwards along strike, away from the main shock, suggesting that Coulomb stress transfer played a role in the fault failure. We estimate the magnitudes of the relocated events using surface-wave cross-correlation amplitudes and find good agreement with the GCMT moment magnitudes for the larger events and underestimation of small-event size by catalogue MS. In addition to clarifying details of the Minab sequence, the results demonstrate that even in tectonically complex regions, relative relocation using teleseismic surface waves greatly improves the precision of relative earthquake epicentroid locations and can facilitate detailed tectonic analyses of remote earthquake sequences.

Landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, E.L.; Jibson, R.W.

1996-01-01

The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake (Mw, = 6.7) triggered more than 11,000 landslides over an area of about 10,000 km2. Most of the landslides were concentrated in a 1000-km2 area that included the Santa Susana Mountains and the mountains north of the Santa Clara River valley. We mapped landslides triggered by the earthquake in the field and from 1:60,000-nominal-scale aerial photography provided by the U.S. Air Force and taken the morning of the earthquake; these mapped landslides were subsequently digitized and plotted in a GIS-based format. Most of the triggered landslides were shallow (1- to 5-m thick), highly disrupted falls and slides within weakly cemented Tertiary to Pleistocene clastic sediment. Average volumes of these types of landslides were less than 1000 m3, but many had volumes exceeding 100,000 m3. The larger disrupted slides commonly had runout paths of more than 50 m, and a few traveled as far as 200 m from the bases of steep parent slopes. Deeper (>5-m thick) rotational slumps and block slides numbered in the tens to perhaps hundreds, a few of which exceeded 100,000 m3 in volume. Most of these were reactivations of previously existing landslides. The largest single landslide triggered by the earthquake was a rotational slump/block slide having a volume of 8 ?? 106 m3. Analysis of the mapped landslide distribution with respect to variations in (1) landslide susceptibility and (2) strong shaking recorded by hundreds of instruments will form the basis of a seismic landslide hazard analysis of the Los Angeles area.

Centrality in earthquake multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotfi, Nastaran; Darooneh, Amir Hossein; Rodrigues, Francisco A.

2018-06-01

Seismic time series has been mapped as a complex network, where a geographical region is divided into square cells that represent the nodes and connections are defined according to the sequence of earthquakes. In this paper, we map a seismic time series to a temporal network, described by a multiplex network, and characterize the evolution of the network structure in terms of the eigenvector centrality measure. We generalize previous works that considered the single layer representation of earthquake networks. Our results suggest that the multiplex representation captures better earthquake activity than methods based on single layer networks. We also verify that the regions with highest seismological activities in Iran and California can be identified from the network centrality analysis. The temporal modeling of seismic data provided here may open new possibilities for a better comprehension of the physics of earthquakes.

A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Porter, Keith; Milner, Kevn

2017-01-01

We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

Radiated Seismic Energy of Earthquakes in the South-Central Region of the Gulf of California, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, Raúl R.; Mendoza-Camberos, Antonio; Pérez-Vertti, Arturo

2018-05-01

We estimated the radiated seismic energy (ES) of 65 earthquakes located in the south-central region of the Gulf of California. Most of these events occurred along active transform faults that define the Pacific-North America plate boundary and have magnitudes between M3.3 and M5.9. We corrected the spectral records for attenuation using nonparametric S-wave attenuation functions determined with the whole data set. The path effects were isolated from the seismic source using a spectral inversion. We computed radiated seismic energy of the earthquakes by integrating the square velocity source spectrum and estimated their apparent stresses. We found that most events have apparent stress between 3 × 10-4 and 3 MPa. Model independent estimates of the ratio between seismic energy and moment (ES/M0) indicates that this ratio is independent of earthquake size. We conclude that in general the apparent stress is low (σa < 3 MPa) in the south-central and southern Gulf of California.

Are landslides in the New Madrid Seismic Zone the result of the 1811-1812 earthquake sequence or multiple prehistoric earthquakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Ryan; Williams, Robert; Jibson, Randall

2014-05-01

Previous research indicates that deep translational and rotational landslides along the bluffs east of the Mississippi River in western Tennessee were triggered by the M7-8 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence. Analysis of recently acquired airborne LiDAR data suggests the possibility of multiple generations of landslides, possibly triggered by older, similar magnitude earthquake sequences, which paleoliquifaction studies show occurred circa 1450 and about 900 A.D. Using these LiDAR data, we have remapped recent landslides along two sections of the bluffs: a northern section near Reelfoot Lake and a southern section near Meeman-Shelby State Park (20 km north of Memphis, Tennessee). The bare-earth, digital-elevation models derived from these LiDAR data have a resolution of 0.5 m and reveal valuable details of topography given the region's dense forest canopy. Our mapping confirms much of the previous landslide mapping, refutes a few previously mapped landslides, and reveals new, undetected landslides. Importantly, we observe that the landslide deposits in the Reelfoot region are characterized by rotated blocks with sharp uphill-facing scarps and steep headwall scarps, indicating youthful, relatively recent movement. In comparison, landslide deposits near Meeman-Shelby are muted in appearance, with headwall scarps and rotated blocks that are extensively dissected by gullies, indicating they might be an older generation of landslides. Because of these differences in morphology, we hypothesize that the landslides near Reelfoot Lake were triggered by the 1811-1812 earthquake sequence and that landslides near Meeman-Shelby resulted from shaking associated with earlier earthquake sequences. To test this hypothesis, we will evaluate differences in bluff height, local geology, vegetation, and proximity to known seismic sources. Furthermore, planned fieldwork will help evaluate whether the observed landslide displacements occurred in single earthquakes or if they might

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

Frequency-Dependent Tidal Triggering of Low Frequency Earthquakes Near Parkfield, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Burgmann, R.; Shelly, D. R.

2017-12-01

The effect of small periodic stress perturbations on earthquake generation is not clear, however, the rate of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) near Parkfield, California has been found to be strongly correlated with solid earth tides. Laboratory experiments and theoretical analyses show that the period of imposed forcing and source properties affect the sensitivity to triggering and the phase relation of the peak seismicity rate and the periodic stress, but frequency-dependent triggering has not been quantitatively explored in the field. Tidal forcing acts over a wide range of frequencies, therefore the sensitivity to tidal triggering of LFEs provides a good probe to the physical mechanisms affecting earthquake generation. In this study, we consider the tidal triggering of LFEs near Parkfield, California since 2001. We find the LFEs rate is correlated with tidal shear stress, normal stress rate and shear stress rate. The occurrence of LFEs can also be independently modulated by groups of tidal constituents at semi-diurnal, diurnal and fortnightly frequencies. The strength of the response of LFEs to the different tidal constituents varies between LFE families. Each LFE family has an optimal triggering frequency, which does not appear to be depth dependent or systematically related to other known properties. This suggests the period of the applied forcing plays an important role in the triggering process, and the interaction of periods of loading history and source region properties, such as friction, effective normal stress and pore fluid pressure, produces the observed frequency-dependent tidal triggering of LFEs.

Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S. E.; Yu, E.; Bhaskaran, A.; Chowdhury, F. R.; Meisenhelter, S.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

2011-12-01

Currently, the SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 8400 data channels from 425 SCSN recorded stations, processing and archiving an average of 6.4 TB of continuous waveforms and 12,000 earthquakes each year. The SCEDC provides public access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP and DHI. This poster will describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC during 2011. New website design: ? The SCEDC has revamped its website. The changes make it easier for users to search the archive, discover updates and new content. These changes also improve our ability to manage and update the site. New data holdings: ? Post processing on El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 sequence continues. To date there have been 11847 events reviewed. Updates are available in the earthquake catalog immediately. ? A double difference catalog (Hauksson et. al 2011) spanning 1981 to 6/30/11 will be available for download at www.data.scec.org and available via STP. ? A focal mechanism catalog determined by Yang et al. 2011 is available for distribution at www.data.scec.org. ? Waveforms from Southern California NetQuake stations are now being stored in the SCEDC archive and available via STP as event associated waveforms. Amplitudes from these stations are also being stored in the archive and used by ShakeMap. ? As part of a NASA/AIST project in collaboration with JPL and SIO, the SCEDC will receive real time 1 sps streams of GPS displacement solutions from the California Real Time Network (http://sopac.ucsd.edu/projects/realtime; Genrich and Bock, 2006, J. Geophys. Res.). These channels will be archived at the SCEDC as miniSEED waveforms, which then can be distributed to the user community via applications such as STP. Improvements in the user tool STP: ? STP sac output now includes picks from the SCSN. New archival methods: ? The SCEDC is exploring the feasibility of archiving and distributing

The Dallas-Fort Worth Airport Earthquake Sequence: Seismicity Beyond Injection Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogwari, Paul O.; DeShon, Heather R.; Hornbach, Matthew J.

2018-01-01

The 2008 Dallas-Fort Worth Airport earthquakes mark the beginning of seismicity rate changes linked to oil and gas operations in the central United States. We assess the spatial and temporal evolution of the sequence through December 2015 using template-based waveform correlation and relative location methods. We locate 400 earthquakes spanning 2008-2015 along a basement fault mapped as the Airport fault. The sequence exhibits temporally variable b values, and small-magnitude (m < 3.4) earthquakes spread northeast along strike over time. Pore pressure diffusion models indicate that the high-volume brine injection well located within 1 km of the 2008 earthquakes, although only operating from September 2008 to August 2009, contributes most significantly to long-term pressure perturbations, and hence stress changes, along the fault; a second long-operating, low-volume injector located 10 km north causes insufficient pressure changes. High-volume injection for a short time period near a critically stressed fault can induce long-lasting seismicity.

Multifractal Omori law for earthquake triggering: new tests on the California, Japan and worldwide catalogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouillon, G.; Sornette, D.; Ribeiro, E.

2009-07-01

The Multifractal Stress-Activated model is a statistical model of triggered seismicity based on mechanical and thermodynamic principles. It predicts that, above a triggering magnitude cut-off M0, the exponent p of the Omori law for the time decay of the rate of aftershocks is a linear increasing function p(M) = a0M + b0 of the main shock magnitude M. We previously reported empirical support for this prediction, using the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) catalogue. Here, we confirm this observation using an updated, longer version of the same catalogue, as well as new methods to estimate p. One of this methods is the newly defined Scaling Function Analysis (SFA), adapted from the wavelet transform. This method is able to measure a mathematical singularity (hence a p-value), erasing the possible regular part of a time-series. The SFA also proves particularly efficient to reveal the coexistence and superposition of several types of relaxation laws (typical Omori sequences and short-lived swarms sequences) which can be mixed within the same catalogue. Another new method consists in monitoring the largest aftershock magnitude observed in successive time intervals, and thus shortcuts the problem of missing events with small magnitudes in aftershock catalogues. The same methods are used on data from the worldwide Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogue and show results compatible with those of Southern California. For the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalogue, we still observe a linear dependence of p on M, but with a smaller slope. The SFA shows however that results for this catalogue may be biased by numerous swarm sequences, despite our efforts to remove them before the analysis.

Continuous GPS observations of postseismic deformation following the 16 October 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake (Mw 7.1)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hudnutt, K.W.; King, N.E.; Galetzka, J.E.; Stark, K.F.; Behr, J.A.; Aspiotes, A.; van, Wyk S.; Moffitt, R.; Dockter, S.; Wyatt, F.

2002-01-01

Rapid field deployment of a new type of continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) network and data from Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) stations that had recently begun operating in the area allow unique observations of the postseismic deformation associated with the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. Innovative solutions in fieldcraft, devised for the 11 new GPS stations, provide high-quality observations with 1-year time histories on stable monuments at remote sites. We report on our results from processing the postseismic GPS data available from these sites, as well as 8 other SCIGN stations within 80 km of the event (a total of 19 sites). From these data, we analyze the temporal character and spatial pattern of the postseismic transients. Data from some sites display statistically significant time variation in their velocities. Although this is less certain, the spatial pattern of change in the postseismic velocity field also appears to have changed. The pattern now is similar to the pre-Landers (pre-1992) secular field, but laterally shifted and locally at twice the rate. We speculate that a 30 km ?? 50 km portion of crust (near Twentynine Palms), which was moving at nearly the North American plate rate (to within 3.5 mm/yr of that rate) prior to the 1992 Landers sequence, now is moving along with the crust to the west of it, as though it has been entrained in flow along with the Pacific Plate as a result of the Landers and Hector Mine earthquake sequence. The inboard axis of right-lateral shear deformation (at lower crustal to upper mantle depth) may have jumped 30 km farther into the continental crust at this fault junction that comprises the southern end of the eastern California shear zone.

ERTS Applications in earthquake research and mineral exploration in California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdel-Gawad, M.; Silverstein, J.

1973-01-01

Examples that ERTS imagery can be effectively utilized to identify, locate, and map faults which show geomorphic evidence of geologically recent breakage are presented. Several important faults not previously known have been identified. By plotting epicenters of historic earthquakes in parts of California, Sonora, Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada, we found that areas known for historic seismicity are often characterized by abundant evidence of recent fault and crustal movements. There are many examples of seismically quiet areas where outstanding evidence of recent fault movements is observed. One application is clear: ERTS-1 imagery could be effectively utilized to delineate areas susceptible to earthquake recurrence which, on the basis of seismic data alone, may be misleadingly considered safe. ERTS data can also be utilized in planning new sites in the geophysical network of fault movement monitoring and strain and tilt measurements.

Earthquake epicenters and fault intersections in central and southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdel-Gawad, M. (Principal Investigator); Silverstein, J.

1972-01-01

The author has identifed the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery provided evidence for the existence of short transverse fault segments lodged between faults of the San Andreas system in the Coast Ranges, California. They indicate that an early episode of transverse shear has affected the Coast Ranges prior to the establishment of the present San Andreas fault. The fault has been offset by transverse faults of the Transverse Ranges. It appears feasible to identify from ERTS-1 imagery geomorphic criteria of recent fault movements. Plots of historic earthquakes in the Coast Ranges and western Transverse Ranges show clusters in areas where structures are complicated by interaction of tow active fault systems. A fault lineament apparently not previously mapped was identified in the Uinta Mountains, Utah. Part of the lineament show evidence of recent faulting which corresponds to a moderate earthquake cluster.

Losses to single-family housing from ground motions in the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Perkins, D.M.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Roth, R.J.; Petersen, M.D.

2004-01-01

The distributions of insured losses to single-family housing following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake for 234 ZIP codes can be satisfactorily modeled with gamma distributions. Regressions of the parameters in the gamma distribution on estimates of ground motion, derived from ShakeMap estimates or from interpolated observations, provide a basis for developing curves of conditional probability of loss given a ground motion. Comparison of the resulting estimates of aggregate loss with the actual aggregate loss gives satisfactory agreement for several different ground-motion parameters. Estimates of loss based on a deterministic spatial model of the earthquake ground motion, using standard attenuation relationships and NEHRP soil factors, give satisfactory results for some ground-motion parameters if the input ground motions are increased about one and one-half standard deviations above the median, reflecting the fact that the ground motions for the Northridge earthquake tended to be higher than the median ground motion for other earthquakes with similar magnitude. The results give promise for making estimates of insured losses to a similar building stock under future earthquake loading. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Great East Japan earthquake, JR East mitigation successes, and lessons for California high-speed rail.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

California and Japan both experience frequent seismic activity, which is often damaging to infrastructure. Seismologists have : developed systems for detecting and analyzing earthquakes in real-time. JR East has developed systems to mitigate the : da...

A public health issue related to collateral seismic hazards: The valley fever outbreak triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, R.W.

2002-01-01

Following the 17 January 1994 Northridge. California earthquake (M = 6.7), Ventura County, California, experienced a major outbreak of coccidioidomycosis (CM), commonly known as valley fever, a respiratory disease contracted by inhaling airborne fungal spores. In the 8 weeks following the earthquake (24 January through 15 March), 203 outbreak-associated cases were reported, which is about an order of magnitude more than the expected number of cases, and three of these cases were fatal. Simi Valley, in easternmost Ventura County, had the highest attack rate in the county, and the attack rate decreased westward across the county. The temporal and spatial distribution of CM cases indicates that the outbreak resulted from inhalation of spore-contaminated dust generated by earthquake-triggered landslides. Canyons North East of Simi Valley produced many highly disrupted, dust-generating landslides during the earthquake and its aftershocks. Winds after the earthquake were from the North East, which transported dust into Simi Valley and beyond to communities to the West. The three fatalities from the CM epidemic accounted for 4 percent of the total earthquake-related fatalities.

A Public Health Issue Related To Collateral Seismic Hazards: The Valley Fever Outbreak Triggered By The 1994 Northridge, California Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jibson, Randall W.

Following the 17 January 1994 Northridge, California earthquake (M = 6.7), Ventura County, California, experienced a major outbreak ofcoccidioidomycosis (CM), commonly known as valley fever, a respiratory disease contracted byinhaling airborne fungal spores. In the 8 weeks following the earthquake (24 Januarythrough 15 March), 203 outbreak-associated cases were reported, which is about an order of magnitude more than the expected number of cases, and three of these cases were fatal.Simi Valley, in easternmost Ventura County, had the highest attack rate in the county,and the attack rate decreased westward across the county. The temporal and spatial distribution of CM cases indicates that the outbreak resulted from inhalation of spore-contaminated dust generated by earthquake-triggered landslides. Canyons North East of Simi Valleyproduced many highly disrupted, dust-generating landslides during the earthquake andits aftershocks. Winds after the earthquake were from the North East, which transporteddust into Simi Valley and beyond to communities to the West. The three fatalities from the CM epidemic accounted for 4 percent of the total earthquake-related fatalities.

Estimating the Locations of Past and Future Large Earthquake Ruptures using Recent M4 and Greater Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebel, J.; Chambers, D. W.

2017-12-01

Although most aftershock activity dies away within months or a few years of a mainshock, there is evidence that aftershocks still occur decades or even centuries after mainshocks, particularly in areas of low background seismicity such as stable continental regions. There also is evidence of long-lasting aftershock sequences in California. New work to study the occurrences of recent M≥4 in California shows that these events occur preferentially at the edges of past major ruptures, with the effect lessening with decreasing magnitude below M4. Prior to several California mainshocks, the M≥4 seismicity was uniformly spread along the future fault ruptures without concentrations at the fault ends. On these faults, the rates of the M≥4 earthquakes prior to the mainshocks were much greater than the rates of the recent M≥4 earthquakes. These results suggest that the spatial patterns and rates of M≥4 earthquakes may help identify which faults are most prone to rupturing in the near future. Using this idea, speculation on which faults in California may be the next ones to experience major earthquakes is presented. Some Japanese earthquakes were also tested for the patterns of M≥4 earthquake seen in California. The 2000 Mw6.6 Western Tottori earthquake shows a premonitory pattern similar to the patterns seen in California, and there have not been any M≥4 earthquakes in the fault vicinity since 2010. The 1995 Mw6.9 Kobe earthquake had little M≥4 seismicity in the years prior to the mainshock, and the M≥4 seismicity since 2000 has been scattered along the fault rupture. Both the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto, Kyushu earthquake and the 2016 Mw6.2 Central Tottori earthquake had some M≥4 earthquakes along the fault in the two decades before the mainshocks. The results of these analyses suggest that the locations of recent M≥4 earthquakes may be useful for determining the spatial extents of past earthquake ruptures and also may help indicate which faults may have strong

Web Services and Other Enhancements at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Allen, R. M.

2012-12-01

The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides data archive and distribution services for seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern California. The NCEDC is enhancing its ability to deliver rapid information through Web Services. NCEDC Web Services use well-established web server and client protocols and REST software architecture to allow users to easily make queries using web browsers or simple program interfaces and to receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, or MiniSEED depending on the service, and are compatible with the equivalent IRIS DMC web services. The NCEDC is currently providing the following Web Services: (1) Station inventory and channel response information delivered in StationXML format, (2) Channel response information delivered in RESP format, (3) Time series availability delivered in text and XML formats, (4) Single channel and bulk data request delivered in MiniSEED format. The NCEDC is also developing a rich Earthquake Catalog Web Service to allow users to query earthquake catalogs based on selection parameters such as time, location or geographic region, magnitude, depth, azimuthal gap, and rms. It will return (in QuakeML format) user-specified results that can include simple earthquake parameters, as well as observations such as phase arrivals, codas, amplitudes, and computed parameters such as first motion mechanisms, moment tensors, and rupture length. The NCEDC will work with both IRIS and the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) to define a uniform set of web service specifications that can be implemented by multiple data centers to provide users with a common data interface across data centers. The NCEDC now hosts earthquake catalogs and waveforms from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) monitoring networks. These

Earthquakes, September-October 1984

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1985-01-01

In the United States, Wyoming experienced a couple of moderate earthquakes, and off the coast of northern California, a strong earthquake shook much of the northern coast of California and parts of the Oregon coast. 

What to Expect from the Virtual Seismologist: Delay Times and Uncertainties of Initial Earthquake Alerts in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behr, Y.; Cua, G. B.; Clinton, J. F.; Racine, R.; Meier, M.; Cauzzi, C.

2013-12-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) originally formulated by Cua and Heaton (2007). Implementation of VS into real-time EEW codes has been an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zürich since 2006, with support from ETH Zürich, various European projects, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). VS is one of three EEW algorithms that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a USGS-funded prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. In Europe, VS is currently operating as a real-time test system in Switzerland, western Greece and Istanbul. As part of the on-going EU project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction), VS installations in southern Italy, Romania, and Iceland are planned or underway. The possible use cases for an EEW system will be determined by the speed and reliability of earthquake source parameter estimates. A thorough understanding of both is therefore essential to evaluate the usefulness of VS. For California, we present state-wide theoretical alert times for hypothetical earthquakes by analyzing time delays introduced by the different components in the VS EEW system. Taking advantage of the fully probabilistic formulation of the VS algorithm we further present an improved way to describe the uncertainties of every magnitude estimate by evaluating the width and shape of the probability density function that describes the relationship between waveform envelope amplitudes and magnitude. We evaluate these new uncertainty values for past seismicity in California through off-line playbacks and compare them to the previously defined static definitions of uncertainty based on real-time detections. Our results indicate where VS alerts are most useful in California and also suggest where most effective improvements to the VS EEW system

Source characteristics of the Fairview, OK, earthquake sequence and its relationship to industrial activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeck, W. L.; Weingarten, M.; Benz, H.; McNamara, D. E.; Herrmann, R. B.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Earle, P. S.; Bergman, E.

2016-12-01

We characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity surrounding the February 13, 2016, Mw 5.1 Fairview, Oklahoma earthquake. This earthquake sequence accounts for the largest moment release in the central and eastern US since the November 06, 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, OK earthquake sequence. To improve the location accuracy of the sequence and measure near-source ground motions, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) deployed eight seismometers and accelerometers in the epicentral region. With the added depth control from these stations, we show that earthquakes primarily occur in the Precambrian basement, at depths of 6-10 km below sea level. The Mw 5.1 mainshock, the largest event in the cluster, locates near the base of the seismicity. Relocated aftershocks delineate a partially unmapped, 14-km-long fault segment that strikes approximately N40°E, partially bridging the gap between previously mapped basement faults to the southwest and northeast. Gas production and hydraulic fracking data from the region show no evidence that either of these activities correlates spatio-temporally with the Fairview sequence. Instead, we suggest that a series of high-rate, Arbuckle injection wells (> 300,000 bbls/month) 8-25 km northeast of this sequence pressurized the reservoir in the far field. Regional injection into the Arbuckle formation increased 7-fold in the 24 months before the initiation of the sequence with some wells operating at rates greater than 1 million barrels per month. Seismicity in the proximity of the high-rate wells is diffuse whilst the energetic Fairview sequence occurs more than 15 km from this region. Our observations point to the critical role pre-existing geologic structures play in the occurrence of large induced earthquakes. This study demonstrates the need for a better understanding of the role of far-field pressurization. High-quality data sets such as this facilitate the USGS mission to improve earthquake hazard identification, especially

The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance: A Case Study - Using an Earthquake Anniversary to Promote Earthquake Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocher, T. M.; Garcia, S.; Aagaard, B. T.; Boatwright, J. J.; Dawson, T.; Hellweg, M.; Knudsen, K. L.; Perkins, J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Stoffer, P. W.; Zoback, M.

2008-12-01

Last October 21st marked the 140th anniversary of the M6.8 1868 Hayward Earthquake, the last damaging earthquake on the southern Hayward Fault. This anniversary was used to help publicize the seismic hazards associated with the fault because: (1) the past five such earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about 140 years apart on average, and (2) the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system is the most likely (with a 31 percent probability) fault in the Bay Area to produce a M6.7 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years. To promote earthquake awareness and preparedness, over 140 public and private agencies and companies and many individual joined the public-private nonprofit 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance (1868alliance.org). The Alliance sponsored many activities including a public commemoration at Mission San Jose in Fremont, which survived the 1868 earthquake. This event was followed by an earthquake drill at Bay Area schools involving more than 70,000 students. The anniversary prompted the Silver Sentinel, an earthquake response exercise based on the scenario of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault conducted by Bay Area County Offices of Emergency Services. 60 other public and private agencies also participated in this exercise. The California Seismic Safety Commission and KPIX (CBS affiliate) produced professional videos designed forschool classrooms promoting Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Starting in October 2007, the Alliance and the U.S. Geological Survey held a sequence of press conferences to announce the release of new research on the Hayward Fault as well as new loss estimates for a Hayward Fault earthquake. These included: (1) a ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, (2) a report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasting the number of employees, employers, and wages predicted to be within areas most strongly shaken by a Hayward Fault earthquake, (3) new estimates of the losses associated with a Hayward Fault earthquake, (4) new ground motion

Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Landslides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, David K.

1998-01-01

Central California, in the vicinity of San Francisco and Monterey Bays, has a history of fatal and damaging landslides, triggered by heavy rainfall, coastal and stream erosion, construction activity, and earthquakes. The great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (MS=8.2-8.3) generated more than 10,000 landslides throughout an area of 32,000 km2; these landslides killed at least 11 people and caused substantial damage to buildings, roads, railroads, and other civil works. Smaller numbers of landslides, which caused more localized damage, have also been reported from at least 20 other earthquakes that have occurred in the San Francisco Bay-Monterey Bay region since 1838. Conditions that make this region particularly susceptible to landslides include steep and rugged topography, weak rock and soil materials, seasonally heavy rainfall, and active seismicity. Given these conditions and history, it was no surprise that the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake generated thousands of landslides throughout the region. Landslides caused one fatality and damaged at least 200 residences, numerous roads, and many other structures. Direct damage from landslides probably exceeded $30 million; additional, indirect economic losses were caused by long-term landslide blockage of two major highways and by delays in rebuilding brought about by concern over the potential long-term instability of some earthquake-damaged slopes.

The Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake aftershock sequence, event catalog and locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meltzer, A.; Benz, H.; Brown, L.; Russo, R. M.; Beck, S. L.; Roecker, S. W.

2011-12-01

The aftershock sequence of the Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake off the coast of Chile in February 2010 is one of the most well-recorded aftershock sequences from a great megathrust earthquake. Immediately following the Maule earthquake, teams of geophysicists from Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain and the United States coordinated resources to capture aftershocks and other seismic signals associated with this significant earthquake. In total, 91 broadband, 48 short period, and 25 accelerometers stations were deployed above the rupture zone of the main shock from 33-38.5°S and from the coast to the Andean range front. In order to integrate these data into a unified catalog, the USGS National Earthquake Information Center develop procedures to use their real-time seismic monitoring system (Bulletin Hydra) to detect, associate, location and compute earthquake source parameters from these stations. As a first step in the process, the USGS has built a seismic catalog of all M3.5 or larger earthquakes for the time period of the main aftershock deployment from March 2010-October 2010. The catalog includes earthquake locations, magnitudes (Ml, Mb, Mb_BB, Ms, Ms_BB, Ms_VX, Mc), associated phase readings and regional moment tensor solutions for most of the M4 or larger events. Also included in the catalog are teleseismic phases and amplitude measures and body-wave MT and CMT solutions for the larger events, typically M5.5 and larger. Tuning of automated detection and association parameters should allow a complete catalog of events to approximately M2.5 or larger for that dataset of more than 164 stations. We characterize the aftershock sequence in terms of magnitude, frequency, and location over time. Using the catalog locations and travel times as a starting point we use double difference techniques to investigate relative locations and earthquake clustering. In addition, phase data from candidate ground truth events and modeling of surface waves can be used to calibrate the

ViscoSim Earthquake Simulator

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, Fred

2012-01-01

Synthetic seismicity simulations have been explored by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Earthquake Simulators Group in order to guide long‐term forecasting efforts related to the Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Tullis et al., 2012a). In this study I describe the viscoelastic earthquake simulator (ViscoSim) of Pollitz, 2009. Recapitulating to a large extent material previously presented by Pollitz (2009, 2011) I describe its implementation of synthetic ruptures and how it differs from other simulators being used by the group.

How does the 2010 El Mayor - Cucapah Earthquake Rupture Connect to the Southern California Plate Boundary Fault System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnellan, A.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Arrowsmith, R.

2016-12-01

The Pacific - North American plate boundary in southern California is marked by several major strike slip faults. The 2010 M7.2 El Mayor - Cucapah earthquake ruptured 120 km of upper crust in Baja California to the US-Mexico border. The earthquake triggered slip along an extensive network of faults in the Salton Trough from the Mexican border to the southern end of the San Andreas fault. Earthquakes >M5 were triggered in the gap between the Laguna Salada and Elsinore faults at Ocotillo and on the Coyote Creek segment of the San Jacinto fault 20 km northwest of Borrego Springs. UAVSAR observations, collected since October of 2009, measure slip associated with the M5.7 Ocotillo aftershock with deformation continuing into 2014. The Elsinore fault has been remarkably quiet, however, with only M5.0 and M5.2 earthquakes occurring on the Coyote Mountains segment of the fault in 1940 and 1968 respectively. In contrast, the Imperial Valley has been quite active historically with numerous moderate events occurring since 1935. Moderate event activity is increasing along the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), especially the trifurcation area, where 6 of 12 historic earthquakes in this 20 km long fault zone have occurred since 2000. However, no recent deformation has been detected using UAVSAR measurements in this area, including the recent M5.2 June 2016 Borrego earthquake. Does the El Mayor - Cucapah rupture connect to and transfer stress primarily to a single southern California fault or several? What is its role relative to the background plate motion? UAVSAR observations indicate that the southward extension of the Elsinore fault has recently experienced the most localized deformation. Seismicity suggests that the San Jacinto fault is more active than neighboring major faults, and geologic evidence suggests that the Southern San Andreas fault has been the major plate boundary fault in southern California. Topographic data with 3-4 cm resolution using structure from motion from

The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Strong Ground Motion and Ground Failure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coordinated by Holzer, Thomas L.

1992-01-01

Professional Paper 1551 describes the effects at the land surface caused by the Loma Prieta earthquake. These effects: include the pattern and characteristics of strong ground shaking, liquefaction of both floodplain deposits along the Pajaro and Salinas Rivers in the Monterey Bay region and sandy artificial fills along the margins of San Francisco Bay, landslides in the epicentral region, and increased stream flow. Some significant findings and their impacts were: * Strong shaking that was amplified by a factor of about two by soft soils caused damage at up to 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the epicenter. * Instrumental recordings of the ground shaking have been used to improve how building codes consider site amplification effects from soft soils. * Liquefaction at 134 locations caused $99.2 million of the total earthquake loss of $5.9 billion. Liquefaction of floodplain deposits and sandy artificial fills was similar in nature to that which occurred in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and indicated that many areas remain susceptible to liquefaction damage in the San Francisco and Monterey Bay regions. * Landslides caused $30 million in earthquake losses, damaging at least 200 residences. Many landslides showed evidence of movement in previous earthquakes. * Recognition of the similarities between liquefaction and landslides in 1906 and 1989 and research in intervening years that established methodologies to map liquefaction and landslide hazards prompted the California legislature to pass in 1990 the Seismic Hazards Mapping Act that required the California Geological Survey to delineate regulatory zones of areas potentially susceptible to these hazards. * The earthquake caused the flow of many streams in the epicentral region to increase. Effects were noted up to 88 km from the epicenter. * Post-earthquake studies of the Marina District of San Francisco provide perhaps the most comprehensive case history of earthquake effects at a specific site developed for

Scientific overview and historical context of the 1811-1812 new Madrid earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

2004-01-01

aftershock». These values are consistent with other lines of evidence, including scaling relationships. Finally, I show that accounts from the New Madrid sequence reveal evidence for remotely triggered earthquakes well outside the NMSZ. Remotely triggered earthquakes represent a potentially important new wrinkle in historic earthquake research, as their ground motions can sometimes be confused with mainshock ground motions.

Stress/strain changes and triggered seismicity following the MW7.3 Landers, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.

1996-01-01

Calculations of dynamic stresses and strains, constrained by broadband seismograms, are used to investigate their role in generating the remotely triggered seismicity that followed the June 28, 1992, MW7.3 Landers, California earthquake. I compare straingrams and dynamic Coulomb failure functions calculated for the Landers earthquake at sites that did experience triggered seismicity with those at sites that did not. Bounds on triggering thresholds are obtained from analysis of dynamic strain spectra calculated for the Landers and MW,6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquakes at various sites, combined with results of static strain investigations by others. I interpret three principal results of this study with those of a companion study by Gomberg and Davis [this issue]. First, the dynamic elastic stress changes themselves cannot explain the spatial distribution of triggered seismicity, particularly the lack of triggered activity along the San Andreas fault system. In addition to the requirement to exceed a Coulomb failure stress level, this result implies the need to invoke and satisfy the requirements of appropriate slip instability theory. Second, results of this study are consistent with the existence of frequency- or rate-dependent stress/strain triggering thresholds, inferred from the companion study and interpreted in terms of earthquake initiation involving a competition of processes, one promoting failure and the other inhibiting it. Such competition is also part of relevant instability theories. Third, the triggering threshold must vary from site to site, suggesting that the potential for triggering strongly depends on site characteristics and response. The lack of triggering along the San Andreas fault system may be correlated with the advanced maturity of its fault gouge zone; the strains from the Landers earthquake were either insufficient to exceed its larger critical slip distance or some other critical failure parameter; or the faults failed stably as

Abundant aftershock sequence of the 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush intermediate-depth earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chenyu; Peng, Zhigang; Yao, Dongdong; Guo, Hao; Zhan, Zhongwen; Zhang, Haijiang

2018-05-01

The 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush earthquake occurred at a depth of 213 km beneath the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan. While many early aftershocks were missing from the global earthquake catalogues, this sequence was recorded continuously by eight broad-band stations within 500 km. Here we use a waveform matching technique to systematically detect earthquakes around the main shock. More than 3000 events are detected within 35 d after the main shock, as compared with 42 listed in the Advanced National Seismic System catalogue (or 196 in the International Seismological Centre catalogue). The aftershock sequence generally follows the Omori's law with a decay constant p = 0.92. We also apply the recently developed double-pair double-difference technique to relocate all detected aftershocks. Most of them are located to the west of the hypocentre of the main shock, consistent with the westward propagation of the main-shock rupture. The aftershocks outline a nearly vertical southward dipping plane, which matches well with one of the nodal planes of the main shock. We conclude that the aftershock sequence of this intermediate-depth earthquake shares many similarities with those for shallow earthquakes and infer that there are some common mechanisms responsible for shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.

California Fault Parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bryant, W.A.

2008-01-01

This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the current seismic hazards in California. These parameters include descriptions of the geometry and rates of movements of faults throughout the state. These values are intended to provide a starting point for development of more sophisticated deformation models which include known rates of movement on faults as well as geodetic measurements of crustal movement and the rates of movements of the tectonic plates. The values will be used in developing the next generation of the time-independent National Seismic Hazard Maps, and the time-dependant seismic hazard calculations being developed for the WGCEP. Due to the multiple uses of this information, development of these parameters has been coordinated between USGS, CGS and SCEC. SCEC provided the database development and editing tools, in consultation with USGS, Golden. This database has been implemented in Oracle and supports electronic access (e.g., for on-the-fly access). A GUI-based application has also been developed to aid in populating the database. Both the continually updated 'living' version of this database, as well as any locked-down official releases (e.g., used in a published model for calculating earthquake probabilities or seismic shaking hazards) are part of the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/ . CGS has been primarily responsible for updating and editing of the fault parameters, with extensive input from USGS and SCEC scientists.

Characterization of Aftershock Sequences from Large Strike-Slip Earthquakes Along Geometrically Complex Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sexton, E.; Thomas, A.; Delbridge, B. G.

2017-12-01

Large earthquakes often exhibit complex slip distributions and occur along non-planar fault geometries, resulting in variable stress changes throughout the region of the fault hosting aftershocks. To better discern the role of geometric discontinuities on aftershock sequences, we compare areas of enhanced and reduced Coulomb failure stress and mean stress for systematic differences in the time dependence and productivity of these aftershock sequences. In strike-slip faults, releasing structures, including stepovers and bends, experience an increase in both Coulomb failure stress and mean stress during an earthquake, promoting fluid diffusion into the region and further failure. Conversely, Coulomb failure stress and mean stress decrease in restraining bends and stepovers in strike-slip faults, and fluids diffuse away from these areas, discouraging failure. We examine spatial differences in seismicity patterns along structurally complex strike-slip faults which have hosted large earthquakes, such as the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, the 2010 Mw 7.2 El-Mayor Cucapah, the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa, and the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto events. We characterize the behavior of these aftershock sequences with the Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence Model (ETAS). In this statistical model, the total occurrence rate of aftershocks induced by an earthquake is λ(t) = λ_0 + \\sum_{i:t_i

[Comment on “Should Memphis build for California's earthquakes?”] from S.E. Hough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hough, Susan E.

The recent article by Seth Stein, Joseph Tomasello, and Andrew Newman raised thought-provoking questions about one of the most vexing open issues in hazard assessment in the United States: the hazard posed by ostensibly infrequent, large, mid-continental earthquakes. Many of the technical issues raised by this article are addressed by A. D. Frankel in the accompanying comment. I concur with this, and will only address and/or elaborate on a few additional issues here: (1) Detailed paleoseismic investigations have shown that the New Madrid region experienced sequences of large earthquakes around 900 and 1450 A.D.in addition to the historic events in 1811-1812. With a repeat time on the order of 400-500 years, these cannot be considered infrequent events. Paleoseismic investigations also reveal evidence that the prehistoric “events” were also sequences of two to three large earthquakes with a similar overall distribution of liquefaction in the greater New Madrid region as produced by the 1811-1812 sequence [Tuttle et al., 2002]. And if, as evidence suggests, the zone produces characteristic earthquakes, one will not see a commensurate rate of moderate events, as would be the case if seismicity followed the Gutenburg-Richter distribution.

Seismology program; California Division of Mines and Geology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherburne, R. W.

1981-01-01

The year 1980 marked the centennial of the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and a decade of the Division's involvement in seismology. Factors which contributed to the formation of a Seismology Group within CDMG included increased concerns for environmental and earthquake safety, interest in earthquake prediction, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and the 1973 publication by CDMG of an urban geology master plan for California. Reasons to be concerned about California's earthquake problem are demonstrated by the accompanying table and the figures. Recent seismicity in California, the Southern California uplift reflecting changes in crustal strain, and other possible earthquake precursors have heightened concern among scientific and governmental groups about the possible occurrence of a major damaging earthquake )M>7) in California. 

Geometry and earthquake potential of the shoreline fault, central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2013-01-01

The Shoreline fault is a vertical strike‐slip fault running along the coastline near San Luis Obispo, California. Much is unknown about the Shoreline fault, including its slip rate and the details of its geometry. Here, I study the geometry of the Shoreline fault at seismogenic depth, as well as the adjacent section of the offshore Hosgri fault, using seismicity relocations and earthquake focal mechanisms. The Optimal Anisotropic Dynamic Clustering (OADC) algorithm (Ouillon et al., 2008) is used to objectively identify the simplest planar fault geometry that fits all of the earthquakes to within their location uncertainty. The OADC results show that the Shoreline fault is a single continuous structure that connects to the Hosgri fault. Discontinuities smaller than about 1 km may be undetected, but would be too small to be barriers to earthquake rupture. The Hosgri fault dips steeply to the east, while the Shoreline fault is essentially vertical, so the Hosgri fault dips towards and under the Shoreline fault as the two faults approach their intersection. The focal mechanisms generally agree with pure right‐lateral strike‐slip on the OADC planes, but suggest a non‐planar Hosgri fault or another structure underlying the northern Shoreline fault. The Shoreline fault most likely transfers strike‐slip motion between the Hosgri fault and other faults of the Pacific–North America plate boundary system to the east. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the entire known length of the Shoreline fault would have a moment magnitude of 6.4–6.8. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the Shoreline fault and the section of the Hosgri fault north of the Hosgri–Shoreline junction would have a moment magnitude of 7.2–7.5.

Breaking barriers and halting rupture: the 2016 Amatrice-Visso-Castelluccio earthquake sequence, central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregory, L. C.; Walters, R. J.; Wedmore, L. N. J.; Craig, T. J.; McCaffrey, K. J. W.; Wilkinson, M. W.; Livio, F.; Michetti, A.; Goodall, H.; Li, Z.; Chen, J.; De Martini, P. M.

2017-12-01

In 2016 the Central Italian Apennines was struck by a sequence of normal faulting earthquakes that ruptured in three separate events on the 24th August (Mw 6.2), the 26th Oct (Mw 6.1), and the 30th Oct (Mw 6.6). We reveal the complex nature of the individual events and the time-evolution of the sequence using multiple datasets. We will present an overview of the results from field geology, satellite geodesy, GNSS (including low-cost short baseline installations), and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). Sequences of earthquakes of mid to high magnitude 6 are common in historical and seismological records in Italy and other similar tectonic settings globally. Multi-fault rupture during these sequences can occur in seconds, as in the M 6.9 1980 Irpinia earthquake, or can span days, months, or years (e.g. the 1703 Norcia-L'Aquila sequence). It is critical to determine why the causative faults in the 2016 sequence did not rupture simultaneously, and how this relates to fault segmentation and structural barriers. This is the first sequence of this kind to be observed using modern geodetic techniques, and only with all of the datasets combined can we begin to understand how and why the sequence evolved in time and space. We show that earthquake rupture both broke through structural barriers that were thought to exist, but was also inhibited by a previously unknown structure. We will also discuss the logistical challenges in generating datasets on the time-evolving sequence, and show how rapid response and international collaboration within the Open EMERGEO Working Group was critical for gaining a complete picture of the ongoing activity.

The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Earthquake Occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coordinated by Bakun, William H.; Prescott, William H.

1993-01-01

Professional Paper 1550 seeks to understand the M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake itself. It examines how the fault that generated the earthquake ruptured, searches for and evaluates precursors that may have indicated an earthquake was coming, reviews forecasts of the earthquake, and describes the geology of the earthquake area and the crustal forces that affect this geology. Some significant findings were: * Slip during the earthquake occurred on 35 km of fault at depths ranging from 7 to 20 km. Maximum slip was approximately 2.3 m. The earthquake may not have released all of the strain stored in rocks next to the fault and indicates a potential for another damaging earthquake in the Santa Cruz Mountains in the near future may still exist. * The earthquake involved a large amount of uplift on a dipping fault plane. Pre-earthquake conventional wisdom was that large earthquakes in the Bay area occurred as horizontal displacements on predominantly vertical faults. * The fault segment that ruptured approximately coincided with a fault segment identified in 1988 as having a 30% probability of generating a M7 earthquake in the next 30 years. This was one of more than 20 relevant earthquake forecasts made in the 83 years before the earthquake. * Calculations show that the Loma Prieta earthquake changed stresses on nearby faults in the Bay area. In particular, the earthquake reduced stresses on the Hayward Fault which decreased the frequency of small earthquakes on it. * Geological and geophysical mapping indicate that, although the San Andreas Fault can be mapped as a through going fault in the epicentral region, the southwest dipping Loma Prieta rupture surface is a separate fault strand and one of several along this part of the San Andreas that may be capable of generating earthquakes.

Recent developments in understanding the tectonic evolution of the Southern California offshore area: Implications for earthquake-hazard analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, M.A.; Langenheim, V.E.; Nicholson, C.; Ryan, H.F.; Sliter, R.W.

2009-01-01

During late Mesozoic and Cenozoic time, three main tectonic episodes affected the Southern California offshore area. Each episode imposed its unique structural imprint such that early-formed structures controlled or at least influenced the location and development of later ones. This cascaded structural inheritance greatly complicates analysis of the extent, orientation, and activity of modern faults. These fault attributes play key roles in estimates of earthquake magnitude and recurrence interval. Hence, understanding the earthquake hazard posed by offshore and coastal faults requires an understanding of the history of structural inheritance and modifi-cation. In this report we review recent (mainly since 1987) findings about the tectonic development of the Southern California offshore area and use analog models of fault deformation as guides to comprehend the bewildering variety of offshore structures that developed over time. This report also provides a background in regional tectonics for other chapters in this section that deal with the threat from offshore geologic hazards in Southern California. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Hospital compliance with a state unfunded mandate: the case of California's Earthquake Safety Law.

PubMed

McCue, Michael J; Thompson, Jon M

2012-01-01

Abstract In recent years, community hospitals have experienced heightened regulation with many unfunded mandates. The authors assessed the market, organizational, operational, and financial characteristics of general acute care hospitals in California that have a main acute care hospital building that is noncompliant with state requirements and at risk of major structural collapse from earthquakes. Using California hospital data from 2007 to 2009, and employing logistic regression analysis, the authors found that hospitals having buildings that are at the highest risk of collapse are located in larger population markets, possess smaller market share, have a higher percentage of Medicaid patients, and have less liquidity.

The Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT) Internship Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, S.; Jordan, T.

2006-12-01

Our undergraduate research program, SCEC/UseIT, an NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates site, provides software for earthquake researchers and educators, movies for outreach, and ways to strengthen the technical career pipeline. SCEC/UseIT motivates diverse undergraduates towards science and engineering careers through team-based research in the exciting field of earthquake information technology. UseIT provides the cross-training in computer science/information technology (CS/IT) and geoscience needed to make fundamental progress in earthquake system science. Our high and increasing participation of women and minority students is crucial given the nation"s precipitous enrollment declines in CS/IT undergraduate degree programs, especially among women. UseIT also casts a "wider, farther" recruitment net that targets scholars interested in creative work but not traditionally attracted to summer science internships. Since 2002, SCEC/UseIT has challenged 79 students in three dozen majors from as many schools with difficult, real-world problems that require collaborative, interdisciplinary solutions. Interns design and engineer open-source software, creating increasingly sophisticated visualization tools (see "SCEC-VDO," session IN11), which are employed by SCEC researchers, in new curricula at the University of Southern California, and by outreach specialists who make animated movies for the public and the media. SCEC-VDO would be a valuable tool for research-oriented professional development programs.

Spatio-temporal variation of seismicity before the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ishida, M.; Kanamori, H.

1977-08-01

The spatio-temporal variation of seismicity prior to the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake is studied for the area within 35 km of the epicenter. During the period from 1932 to 1961, the seismicity in this area was relatively low and random. A remarkable NE-SW trending alignment of activity occurred during the period from 1961 to 1964, the period corresponding to the inferred onset of the Palmdale uplift. During the period from 1965 to 1968, the seismicity around the epicentral area became extremely low; no event was located within 13 km from the epicenter. During the period from 1969 to themore » occurrence of the San Fernando earthquake, activity around the epicentral area increased. This activity may be considered to be foreshock activity in a broad sense.« less

Seismicity and stress transfer studies in eastern California and Nevada: Implications for earthquake sources and tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichinose, Gene Aaron

The source parameters for eastern California and western Nevada earthquakes are estimated from regionally recorded seismograms using a moment tensor inversion. We use the point source approximation and fit the seismograms, at long periods. We generated a moment tensor catalog for Mw > 4.0 since 1997 and Mw > 5.0 since 1990. The catalog includes centroid depths, seismic moments, and focal mechanisms. The regions with the most moderate sized earthquakes in the last decade were in aftershock zones located in Eureka Valley, Double Spring Flat, Coso, Ridgecrest, Fish Lake Valley, and Scotty's Junction. The remaining moderate size earthquakes were distributed across the region. The 1993 (Mw 6.0) Eureka Valley earthquake occurred in the Eastern California Shear Zone. Careful aftershock relocations were used to resolve structure from aftershock clusters. The mainshock appears to rupture along the western side of the Last Change Range along a 30° to 60° west dipping fault plane, consistent with previous geodetic modeling. We estimate the source parameters for aftershocks at source-receiver distances less than 20 km using waveform modeling. The relocated aftershocks and waveform modeling results do not indicate any significant evidence of low angle faulting (dips > 30°. The results did reveal deformation along vertical faults within the hanging-wall block, consistent with observed surface rupture along the Saline Range above the dipping fault plane. The 1994 (Mw 5.8) Double Spring Flat earthquake occurred along the eastern Sierra Nevada between overlapping normal faults. Aftershock migration and cross fault triggering occurred in the following two years, producing seventeen Mw > 4 aftershocks The source parameters for the largest aftershocks were estimated from regionally recorded seismograms using moment tensor inversion. We estimate the source parameters for two moderate sized earthquakes which occurred near Reno, Nevada, the 1995 (Mw 4.4) Border Town, and the 1998 (Mw

Remotely triggered microearthquakes and tremor in central California following the 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peng, Zhigang; Hill, David P.; Shelly, David R.; Aiken, Chastity

2010-01-01

We examine remotely triggered microearthquakes and tectonic tremor in central California following the 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake. Several microearthquakes near the Coso Geothermal Field were apparently triggered, with the largest earthquake (Ml 3.5) occurring during the large-amplitude Love surface waves. The Chile mainshock also triggered numerous tremor bursts near the Parkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF). The locally triggered tremor bursts are partially masked at lower frequencies by the regionally triggered earthquake signals from Coso, but can be identified by applying high-pass or matched filters. Both triggered tremor along the SAF and the Ml 3.5 earthquake in Coso are consistent with frictional failure at different depths on critically-stressed faults under the Coulomb failure criteria. The triggered tremor, however, appears to be more phase-correlated with the surface waves than the triggered earthquakes, likely reflecting differences in constitutive properties between the brittle, seismogenic crust and the underlying lower crust.

Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, T. H.; Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Jackson, D. D.; Rhoades, D. A.; Zechar, J. D.; Marzocchi, W.

2016-12-01

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 442 models under evaluation. The California testing center, started by SCEC, Sept 1, 2007, currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and worldwide. Our tests are now based on the hypocentral locations and magnitudes of cataloged earthquakes, but we plan to test focal mechanisms, seismic hazard models, ground motion forecasts, and finite rupture forecasts as well. We have increased computational efficiency for high-resolution global experiments, such as the evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model, introduced Bayesian ensemble models, and implemented support for non-Poissonian simulation-based forecasts models. We are currently developing formats and procedures to evaluate externally hosted forecasts and predictions. CSEP supports the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a DHS project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. We found that earthquakes as small as magnitude 2.5 provide important information on subsequent earthquakes larger than magnitude 5. A retrospective experiment for the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence showed that some physics-based and hybrid models outperform catalog-based (e.g., ETAS) models. This experiment also demonstrates the ability of the CSEP infrastructure to support retrospective forecast testing. Current CSEP development activities include adoption of the Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat) as an authorized data source, retrospective testing of simulation-based forecasts, and support for additive ensemble methods. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as

Wastewater disposal and the earthquake sequences during 2016 near Fairview, Pawnee, and Cushing, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, Arthur F.; Barbour, Andrew

2017-01-01

Each of the three earthquake sequences in Oklahoma in 2016—Fairview, Pawnee, and Cushing—appears to have been induced by high-volume wastewater disposal within 10 km. The Fairview M5.1 main shock was part of a 2 year sequence of more than 150 events of M3, or greater; the main shock accounted for about half of the total moment. The foreshocks and aftershocks of the M5.8 Pawnee earthquake were too small and too few to contribute significantly to the cumulative moment; instead, nearly all of the moment induced by wastewater injection was focused on the main shock. The M5.0 Cushing event is part of a sequence that includes 48 earthquakes of M3, or greater, that are mostly foreshocks. The cumulative moment for each of the three sequences during 2016, as well as that for the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma, and nine other sequences representing a broad range of injected volume, are all limited by the total volumes of wastewater injected locally.

TriNet "ShakeMaps": Rapid generation of peak ground motion and intensity maps for earthquakes in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Quitoriano, V.; Heaton, T.H.; Kanamori, H.; Scrivner, C.W.; Worden, C.B.

1999-01-01

Rapid (3-5 minutes) generation of maps of instrumental ground-motion and shaking intensity is accomplished through advances in real-time seismographic data acquisition combined with newly developed relationships between recorded ground-motion parameters and expected shaking intensity values. Estimation of shaking over the entire regional extent of southern California is obtained by the spatial interpolation of the measured ground motions with geologically based frequency and amplitude-dependent site corrections. Production of the maps is automatic, triggered by any significant earthquake in southern California. Maps are now made available within several minutes of the earthquake for public and scientific consumption via the World Wide Web; they will be made available with dedicated communications for emergency response agencies and critical users.

GPS Time Series Analysis of Southern California Associated with the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor/Cucapah Earthquake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Granat, Robert; Donnellan, Andrea

2011-01-01

The Magnitude 7.2 El-Mayor/Cucapah earthquake the occurred in Mexico on April 4, 2012 was well instrumented with continuous GPS stations in California. Large Offsets were observed at the GPS stations as a result of deformation from the earthquake providing information about the co-seismic fault slip as well as fault slip from large aftershocks. Information can also be obtained from the position time series at each station.

Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of small businesses in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each business establishment size category to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the earthquake on small businesses. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by business establishment size.

Response and recovery lessons from the 2010-2011 earthquake sequence in Canterbury, New Zealand

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierepiekarz, Mark; Johnston, David; Berryman, Kelvin; Hare, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Williams, Robert A.; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

The impacts and opportunities that result when low-probability moderate earthquakes strike an urban area similar to many throughout the US were vividly conveyed in a one-day workshop in which social and Earth scientists, public officials, engineers, and an emergency manager shared their experiences of the earthquake sequence that struck the city of Christchurch and surrounding Canterbury region of New Zealand in 2010-2011. Without question, the earthquake sequence has had unprecedented impacts in all spheres on New Zealand society, locally to nationally--10% of the country's population was directly impacted and losses total 8-10% of their GDP. The following paragraphs present a few lessons from Christchurch.

Connecting crustal seismicity and earthquake-driven stress evolution in Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, Fred; Cattania, Camilla

2017-01-01

Tectonic stress in the crust evolves during a seismic cycle, with slow stress accumulation over interseismic periods, episodic stress steps at the time of earthquakes, and transient stress readjustment during a postseismic period that may last months to years. Static stress transfer to surrounding faults has been well documented to alter regional seismicity rates over both short and long time scales. While static stress transfer is instantaneous and long lived, postseismic stress transfer driven by viscoelastic relaxation of the ductile lower crust and mantle leads to additional, slowly varying stress perturbations. Both processes may be tested by comparing a decade-long record of regional seismicity to predicted time-dependent seismicity rates based on a stress evolution model that includes viscoelastic stress transfer. Here we explore crustal stress evolution arising from the seismic cycle in Southern California from 1981 to 2014 using five M≥6.5 source quakes: the M7.3 1992 Landers, M6.5 1992 Big Bear, M6.7 1994 Big Bear, M7.1 1999 Hector Mine, and M7.2 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquakes. We relate the stress readjustment in the surrounding crust generated by each quake to regional seismicity using rate-and-state friction theory. Using a log likelihood approach, we quantify the potential to trigger seismicity of both static and viscoelastic stress transfer, finding that both processes have systematically shaped the spatial pattern of Southern California seismicity since 1992.

Web Services and Data Enhancements at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Lombard, P. N.; Allen, R. M.

2013-12-01

The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides data archive and distribution services for seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern California. The NCEDC is enhancing its ability to deliver rapid information through Web Services. NCEDC Web Services use well-established web server and client protocols and REST software architecture to allow users to easily make queries using web browsers or simple program interfaces and to receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, simple text, or MiniSEED depending on the service and selected output format. The NCEDC offers the following web services that are compliant with the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) web services specifications: (1) fdsn-dataselect: time series data delivered in MiniSEED format, (2) fdsn-station: station and channel metadata and time series availability delivered in StationXML format, (3) fdsn-event: earthquake event information delivered in QuakeML format. In addition, the NCEDC offers the the following IRIS-compatible web services: (1) sacpz: provide channel gains, poles, and zeros in SAC format, (2) resp: provide channel response information in RESP format, (3) dataless: provide station and channel metadata in Dataless SEED format. The NCEDC is also developing a web service to deliver timeseries from pre-assembled event waveform gathers. The NCEDC has waveform gathers for ~750,000 northern and central California events from 1984 to the present, many of which were created by the USGS NCSN prior to the establishment of the joint NCSS (Northern California Seismic System). We are currently adding waveforms to these older event gathers with time series from the UCB networks and other networks with waveforms archived at the NCEDC, and ensuring that the waveform for each channel in the event gathers have the highest

Precursory slow-slip loaded the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borghi, A.; Aoudia, A.; Javed, F.; Barzaghi, R.

2016-05-01

Slow-slip events (SSEs) are common at subduction zone faults where large mega earthquakes occur. We report here that one of the best-recorded moderate size continental earthquake, the 2009 April 6 moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake, was preceded by a 5.9 Mw SSE that originated from the decollement beneath the reactivated normal faulting system. The SSE is identified from a rigorous analysis of continuous GPS stations and occurred on the 12 February and lasted for almost two weeks. It coincided with a burst in the foreshock activity with small repeating earthquakes migrating towards the main-shock hypocentre as well as with a change in the elastic properties of rocks in the fault region. The SSE has caused substantial stress loading at seismogenic depths where the magnitude 4.0 foreshock and Mw 6.3 main shock nucleated. This stress loading is also spatially correlated with the lateral extent of the aftershock sequence.

The 2012 Emilia (Northern Italy) earthquake sequence: an attempt of historical reading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graziani, L.; Bernardini, F.; Castellano, C.; Del Mese, S.; Ercolani, E.; Rossi, A.; Tertulliani, A.; Vecchi, M.

2015-04-01

In May-June 2012, the Po Valley (Northern Italy) was struck by an earthquake sequence whose strongest event occurred on 20 May (Mw 5.9). The intensity values (Imax 7-8 EMS98) assessed through macroseismic field surveys seemed inappropriate to describe the whole range of effects observed, especially those to monumental heritage, which suffered very heavy damage and destruction. The observed intensities in fact were significantly lower than those we could have expected after a Mw 5.9 event for Italy. As magnitude-intensity regressions are mainly based on historical earthquake data, we handle this issue going back in time and debating the following hypotheses: (a) the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence shows lower intensity values than expected because the affected urban context is more heterogeneous and much less vulnerable than that in the past; (b) some historical earthquakes, especially those that occurred centuries ago and are provided with little information, could show a tendency to be overestimated in intensity, and consequently in magnitude. In order to give consistency to such hypotheses, we have introduced, as a test, a dual historical reading of the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence as if it had occurred in the past: the first reading refers to a period prior to the introduction of concrete in buildings assessing the intensity on traditional masonry buildings only. A further historical reading, assessed by using information on monumental buildings only, was performed, and it can be roughly referred to the XVI-XVII centuries. In both cases, intensity values tend to grow significantly. The results could have a relevant impact when considered for seismic hazard assessments if confirmed on a large scale.

Unusual downhole and surface free-field records near the Carquinez Strait bridges during the 24 August 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa, California earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Çelebi, Mehmet; Ghahari, S. Farid; Taciroglu, Ertugrul

2015-01-01

This paper reports the results of Part A of a study of the recorded strong-motion accelerations at the well-instrumented network of the two side-by-side parallel bridges over the Carquinez Strait during the 24 August 2014 (Mw6.0 ) South Napa, Calif. earthquake that occurred at 03:20:44 PDT with epicentral coordinates 38.22N, 122.31W. (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/poster/2014/20140824.php, last accessed on October 17, 2014). Both bridges and two boreholes were instrumented by the California Strong motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP) of California Geological Survey (CGS) (Shakal et al., 2014). A comprehensive comparison of several ground motion prediction equations as they relate to recorded ground motions of the earthquake is provided by Baltay and Boatright (2015).

Chapter F. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Tectonic Processes and Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, Robert W.

1994-01-01

If there is a single theme that unifies the diverse papers in this chapter, it is the attempt to understand the role of the Loma Prieta earthquake in the context of the earthquake 'machine' in northern California: as the latest event in a long history of shocks in the San Francisco Bay region, as an incremental contributor to the regional deformation pattern, and as a possible harbinger of future large earthquakes. One of the surprises generated by the earthquake was the rather large amount of uplift that occurred as a result of the reverse component of slip on the southwest-dipping fault plane. Preearthquake conventional wisdom had been that large earthquakes in the region would probably be caused by horizontal, right-lateral, strike-slip motion on vertical fault planes. In retrospect, the high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the elevated marine terraces along the coast should have provided some clues. With the observed ocean retreat and the obvious uplift of the coast near Santa Cruz that accompanied the earthquake, Mother Nature was finally caught in the act. Several investigators quickly saw the connection between the earthquake uplift and the long-term evolution of the Santa Cruz Mountains and realized that important insights were to be gained by attempting to quantify the process of crustal deformation in terms of Loma Prieta-type increments of northward transport and fault-normal shortening.

Dual Megathrust Slip Behaviors of the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Huang, H.; Burgmann, R.; Ampuero, J. P.; Strader, A. E.

2014-12-01

The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A M 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of Northern Chile. This event was preceded by a 2-week-long foreshock sequence including a M 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes are found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock area, suggesting a large scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence time of repeating earthquakes highlights the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while other repeaters occurred both before and after the mainshock in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatial and temporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrate the essential role of propagating aseismic slip in leading up to the mainshock and aftershock activities. Various finite fault models indicate that the coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show slow initiation with low amplitude moment rate at low frequency (< 0.1 Hz), while back-projection shows a steady initiation at high frequency (> 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the high-frequency rupture remains within an area of low gravity anomaly, suggesting possible upper-crustal structures that promote high-frequency generation. Back-projection also shows an episode of reverse rupture propagation which suggests a delayed failure of asperities in

Earthquakes, May-June 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1992-01-01

In the United States, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake in southern California on June 28 killed two people and caused considerable damage. Strong earthquakes hit Alaska on May 1 and May 30; the May 1 earthquake caused some minor damage. 

Earthquakes; July-August, 1978

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1979-01-01

Earthquake activity during this period was about normal. Deaths from earthquakes were reported from Greece and Guatemala. Three major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0-7.9) occurred in Taiwan, Chile, and Costa Rica. In the United States, the most significant earthquake was a magnitude 5.6 on August 13 in southern California. 

Strain Anomalies during an Earthquake Sequence in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnadottir, T.; Haines, A. J.; Geirsson, H.; Hreinsdottir, S.

2017-12-01

The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) accommodates E-W translation due to oblique spreading between the North American/Hreppar microplate and Eurasian plate, in South Iceland. Strain is released in the SISZ during earthquake sequences that last days to years, at average intervals of 80-100 years. The SISZ is currently in the midst of an earthquake sequence that started with two M6.5 earthquakes in June 2000, and continued with two M6 earthquakes in May 2008. Estimates of geometric strain accumulation, and seismic strain release in these events indicate that they released at most only half of the strain accumulated since the last earthquake cycle in 1896-1912. Annual GPS campaigns and continuous measurements during 2001-2015 were used to calculate station velocities and strain rates from a new method using the vertical derivatives of horizontal stress (VDoHS). This new method allows higher resolution of strain rates than other (older) approaches, as the strain rates are estimated by integrating VDoHS rates obtained by inversion rather than differentiating interpolated GPS velocities. Estimating the strain rates for eight 1-2 year intervals indicates temporal and spatial variation of strain rates in the SISZ. In addition to earthquake faulting, the strain rates in the SISZ are influenced by anthropogenic signals due to geothermal exploitation, and magma movements in neighboring volcanoes - Hekla and Eyjafjallajökull. Subtle signals of post-seismic strain rate changes are seen following the June 2000 M6.5 main shocks, but interestingly, much larger strain rate variations are observed after the two May 2008 M6 main shocks. A prominent strain anomaly is evident in the epicentral area prior to the May 2008 earthquake sequence. The strain signal persists over at least 4 years in the epicentral area, leading up to the M6 main shocks. The strain is primarily extension in ESE-WNW direction (sub-parallel to the direction of plate spreading), but overall shear across the N

Improving the RST Approach for Earthquake Prone Areas Monitoring: Results of Correlation Analysis among Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies and Earthquakes (M>4) occurred in Italy during 2004-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramutoli, V.; Coviello, I.; Filizzola, C.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Paciello, R.; Pergola, N.

2015-12-01

Looking toward the assessment of a multi-parametric system for dynamically updating seismic hazard estimates and earthquake short term (from days to weeks) forecast, a preliminary step is to identify those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated to the complex process of preparation of a big earthquake. Among the different parameters, the fluctuations of Earth's thermally emitted radiation, as measured by sensors on board of satellite system operating in the Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) spectral range, have been proposed since long time as potential earthquake precursors. Since 2001, a general approach called Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) has been used to discriminate anomalous thermal signals, possibly associated to seismic activity from normal fluctuations of Earth's thermal emission related to other causes (e.g. meteorological) independent on the earthquake occurrence. Thanks to its full exportability on different satellite packages, RST has been implemented on TIR images acquired by polar (e.g. NOAA-AVHRR, EOS-MODIS) and geostationary (e.g. MSG-SEVIRI, NOAA-GOES/W, GMS-5/VISSR) satellite sensors, in order to verify the presence (or absence) of TIR anomalies in presence (absence) of earthquakes (with M>4) in different seismogenic areas around the world (e.g. Italy, Turkey, Greece, California, Taiwan, etc.).In this paper, a refined RST (Robust Satellite Techniques) data analysis approach and RETIRA (Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies) index were used to identify Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies (SSTAs) during eleven years (from May 2004 to December 2014) of TIR satellite records, collected over Italy by the geostationary satellite sensor MSG-SEVIRI. On the basis of specific validation rules (mainly based on physical models and results obtained by applying RST approach to several earthquakes all around the world) the level of space-time correlation among SSTAs and earthquakes (with M≥4

Operational Earthquake Forecasting of Aftershocks for New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebel, J.; Fadugba, O. I.

2015-12-01

Although the forecasting of mainshocks is not possible, recent research demonstrates that probabilistic forecasts of expected aftershock activity following moderate and strong earthquakes is possible. Previous work has shown that aftershock sequences in intraplate regions behave similarly to those in California, and thus the operational aftershocks forecasting methods that are currently employed in California can be adopted for use in areas of the eastern U.S. such as New England. In our application, immediately after a felt earthquake in New England, a forecast of expected aftershock activity for the next 7 days will be generated based on a generic aftershock activity model. Approximately 24 hours after the mainshock, the parameters of the aftershock model will be updated using the observed aftershock activity observed to that point in time, and a new forecast of expected aftershock activity for the next 7 days will be issued. The forecast will estimate the average number of weak, felt aftershocks and the average expected number of aftershocks based on the aftershock statistics of past New England earthquakes. The forecast also will estimate the probability that an earthquake that is stronger than the mainshock will take place during the next 7 days. The aftershock forecast will specify the expected aftershocks locations as well as the areas over which aftershocks of different magnitudes could be felt. The system will use web pages, email and text messages to distribute the aftershock forecasts. For protracted aftershock sequences, new forecasts will be issued on a regular basis, such as weekly. Initially, the distribution system of the aftershock forecasts will be limited, but later it will be expanded as experience with and confidence in the system grows.

The 2016 Mihoub (north-central Algeria) earthquake sequence: Seismological and tectonic aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khelif, M. F.; Yelles-Chaouche, A.; Benaissa, Z.; Semmane, F.; Beldjoudi, H.; Haned, A.; Issaadi, A.; Chami, A.; Chimouni, R.; Harbi, A.; Maouche, S.; Dabbouz, G.; Aidi, C.; Kherroubi, A.

2018-06-01

On 28 May 2016 at 23:54 (UTC), an Mw5.4 earthquake occurred in Mihoub village, Algeria, 60 km southeast of Algiers. This earthquake was the largest event in a sequence recorded from 10 April to 15 July 2016. In addition to the permanent national network, a temporary network was installed in the epicentral region after this shock. Recorded event locations allow us to give a general overview of the sequence and reveal the existence of two main fault segments. The first segment, on which the first event in the sequence was located, is near-vertical and trends E-W. The second fault plane, on which the largest event of the sequence was located, dips to the southeast and strikes NE-SW. A total of 46 well-constrained focal mechanisms were calculated. The events located on the E-W-striking fault segment show mainly right-lateral strike-slip (strike N70°E, dip 77° to the SSE, rake 150°). The events located on the NE-SW-striking segment show mainly reverse faulting (strike N60°E, dip 70° to the SE, rake 130°). We calculated the static stress change caused by the first event (Md4.9) of the sequence; the result shows that the fault plane of the largest event in the sequence (Mw5.4) and most of the aftershocks occurred within an area of increased Coulomb stress. Moreover, using the focal mechanisms calculated in this work, we estimated the orientations of the main axes of the local stress tensor ellipsoid. The results confirm previous findings that the general stress field in this area shows orientations aligned NNW-SSE to NW-SE. The 2016 Mihoub earthquake sequence study thus improves our understanding of seismic hazard in north-central Algeria.

WHITTIER NARROWS, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE OF OCTOBER 1, 1987-PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF STRONG GROUND MOTION RECORDS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brady, A.G.; Etheredge, E.C.; Porcella, R.L.

1988-01-01

More than 250 strong-motion accelerograph stations were triggered by the Whittier Narrows, California earthquake of 1 October 1987. Considering the number of multichannel structural stations in the area of strong shaking, this set of records is one of the more significant in history. Three networks, operated by the U. S. Geological Survey, the California Division of Mines and Geology, and the University of Southern California produced the majority of the records. The excellent performance of the instruments in these and the smaller arrays is attributable to the quality of the maintenance programs. Readiness for a magnitude 8 event is directly related to these maintenance programs. Prior to computer analysis of the analog film records, a number of important structural resonant modes can be identified, and frequencies and simple mode shapes have been scaled.

The Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of August 2011 and aftershock sequence: constraints on earthquake source parameters and fault geometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, H.M.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Bergman, Eric A.; Earle, Paul; Meltzer, Anne; Withers, Mitch; Chapman, Martin

2014-01-01

The Mw 5.8 earthquake of 23 August 2011 (17:51:04 UTC) (moment, M0 5.7×1017  N·m) occurred near Mineral, Virginia, within the central Virginia seismic zone and was felt by more people than any other earthquake in United States history. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received 148,638 felt reports from 31 states and 4 Canadian provinces. The USGS PAGER system estimates as many as 120,000 people were exposed to shaking intensity levels of IV and greater, with approximately 10,000 exposed to shaking as high as intensity VIII. Both regional and teleseismic moment tensor solutions characterize the earthquake as a northeast‐striking reverse fault that nucleated at a depth of approximately 7±2  km. The distribution of reported macroseismic intensities is roughly ten times the area of a similarly sized earthquake in the western United States (Horton and Williams, 2012). Near‐source and far‐field damage reports, which extend as far away as Washington, D.C., (135 km away) and Baltimore, Maryland, (200 km away) are consistent with an earthquake of this size and depth in the eastern United States (EUS). Within the first few days following the earthquake, several government and academic institutions installed 36 portable seismograph stations in the epicentral region, making this among the best‐recorded aftershock sequences in the EUS. Based on modeling of these data, we provide a detailed description of the source parameters of the mainshock and analysis of the subsequent aftershock sequence for defining the fault geometry, area of rupture, and observations of the aftershock sequence magnitude–frequency and temporal distribution. The observed slope of the magnitude–frequency curve or b‐value for the aftershock sequence is consistent with previous EUS studies (b=0.75), suggesting that most of the accumulated strain was released by the mainshock. The aftershocks define a rupture that extends between approximately 2–8 km in depth and 8–10 km along

History of earthquakes and tsunamis along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust, with implications for tsunami hazards in the California Continental Borderland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, Holly F.; von Huene, Roland E.; Wells, Ray E.; Scholl, David W.; Kirby, Stephen; Draut, Amy E.; Dumoulin, Julie A.; Dusel-Bacon, C.

2012-01-01

During the past several years, devastating tsunamis were generated along subduction zones in Indonesia, Chile, and most recently Japan. Both the Chile and Japan tsunamis traveled across the Pacific Ocean and caused localized damage at several coastal areas in California. The question remains as to whether coastal California, in particular the California Continental Borderland, is vulnerable to more extensive damage from a far-field tsunami sourced along a Pacific subduction zone. Assuming that the coast of California is at risk from a far-field tsunami, its coastline is most exposed to a trans-Pacific tsunami generated along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone. We present the background geologic constraints that could control a possible giant (Mw ~9) earthquake sourced along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust. Previous great earthquakes (Mw ~8) in 1788, 1938, and 1946 ruptured single segments of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust. However, in order to generate a giant earthquake, it is necessary to rupture through multiple segments of the megathrust. Potential barriers to a throughgoing rupture, such as high-relief fracture zones or ridges, are absent on the subducting Pacific Plate between the Fox and Semidi Islands. Possible asperities (areas on the megathrust that are locked and therefore subject to infrequent but large slip) are identified by patches of high moment release observed in the historical earthquake record, geodetic studies, and the location of forearc basin gravity lows. Global Positioning System (GPS) data indicate that some areas of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust, such as that beneath Sanak Island, are weakly coupled. We suggest that although these areas will have reduced slip during a giant earthquake, they are not really large enough to form a barrier to rupture. A key aspect in defining an earthquake source for tsunami generation is determining the possibility of significant slip on the updip end of the megathrust near

Responses of a tall building in Los Angeles, California as inferred from local and distant earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Çelebi, Mehmet; Hasan Ulusoy,; Nori Nakata,

2016-01-01

Increasing inventory of tall buildings in the United States and elsewhere may be subjected to motions generated by near and far seismic sources that cause long-period effects. Multiple sets of records that exhibited such effects were retrieved from tall buildings in Tokyo and Osaka ~ 350 km and 770 km from the epicenter of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In California, very few tall buildings have been instrumented. An instrumented 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles recorded seven local and distant earthquakes. Spectral and system identification methods exhibit significant low frequencies of interest (~0.17 Hz, 0.56 Hz and 1.05 Hz). These frequencies compare well with those computed by transfer functions; however, small variations are observed between the significant low frequencies for each of the seven earthquakes. The torsional and translational frequencies are very close and are coupled. Beating effect is observed in at least two of the seven earthquake data.

Earthquakes, September-October, 1979

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1980-01-01

In the United States, California experienced the strongest earthquake in that State since 1971. The quake, a M=6.8, occurred on October 15, in Baja California, Mexico, near the California border and caused injuries and damage. 

Systematic Study of Foreshocks and Triggered Earthquakes During the 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Deng, S.; Castro, R. R.

2015-12-01

The 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake occurred southwest of the Pacific-North America plate boundary in north Baja California. It was preceded by an intensive foreshock sequence, and was followed by numerous aftershocks both on and off the mainshock rupture zone, hence providing us a great opportunity to study the physical mechanisms of foreshock and aftershock triggering. In our previously published work (Meng and Peng, GJI, 2014), we focused on the seismicity rate changes around the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) and along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) following the mainshock. Based on a recently developed matched filter technique, we were able to detect up to 20 times more events than listed in the SCSN catalog. We found that the seismicity rate near SSGF and SJF both experienced significant increase immediately following the mainshock. However, the seismicity rate near SSGF, where static Coulomb stress decreased, dropped below the pre-mainshock level after ~50 days. On the other hand, the seismicity rate near SJF, where static Coulomb stress increased, remained high till the end of our detecting time window. Such pattern indicates that both static and dynamic triggering may coexist, but dominate in different time scales. Motivated by this success, we shift our focus to the foreshock and aftershock sequence of the El Mayor-Cucapah event. We utilize available seismic stations immediately north to US-Mexico boarder and a few stations within Mexico to conduct a similar detection ~40 days before to 40 days after the mainshock. We aim to obtain a complete foreshock sequence and investigate its spatio-temporal evolutions before the mainshock. Moreover, we plan to study similar patterns for aftershocks and the corresponding triggering mechanisms. Updated results will be presented at the meeting.

The 2006-2007 Kuril Islands great earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lay, T.; Kanamori, H.; Ammon, C.J.; Hutko, Alexander R.; Furlong, K.; Rivera, L.

2009-01-01

The southwestern half of a ???500 km long seismic gap in the central Kuril Island arc subduction zone experienced two great earthquakes with extensive preshock and aftershock sequences in late 2006 to early 2007. The nature of seismic coupling in the gap had been uncertain due to the limited historical record of prior large events and the presence of distinctive upper plate, trench and outer rise structures relative to adjacent regions along the arc that have experienced repeated great interplate earthquakes in the last few centuries. The intraplate region seaward of the seismic gap had several shallow compressional events during the preceding decades (notably an MS 7.2 event on 16 March 1963), leading to speculation that the interplate fault was seismically coupled. This issue was partly resolved by failure of the shallow portion of the interplate megathrust in an MW = 8.3 thrust event on 15 November 2006. This event ruptured ???250 km along the seismic gap, just northeast of the great 1963 Kuril Island (Mw = 8.5) earthquake rupture zone. Within minutes of the thrust event, intense earthquake activity commenced beneath the outer wall of the trench seaward of the interplate rupture, with the larger events having normal-faulting mechanisms. An unusual double band of interplate and intraplate aftershocks developed. On 13 January 2007, an MW = 8.1 extensional earthquake ruptured within the Pacific plate beneath the seaward edge of the Kuril trench. This event is the third largest normal-faulting earthquake seaward of a subduction zone on record, and its rupture zone extended to at least 33 km depth and paralleled most of the length of the 2006 rupture. The 13 January 2007 event produced stronger shaking in Japan than the larger thrust event, as a consequence of higher short-period energy radiation from the source. The great event aftershock sequences were dominated by the expected faulting geometries; thrust faulting for the 2006 rupture zone, and normal faulting for

2016 National Earthquake Conference

Science.gov Websites

Thank you to our Presenting Sponsor, California Earthquake Authority. What's New? What's Next ? What's Your Role in Building a National Strategy? The National Earthquake Conference (NEC) is a , state government leaders, social science practitioners, U.S. State and Territorial Earthquake Managers

The 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake: A test of the stress shadow hypothesis?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.

2002-01-01

We test the stress shadow hypothesis for large earthquake interactions by examining the relationship between two large earthquakes that occurred in the Mojave Desert of southern California, the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers and 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes. We want to determine if the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake occurred at a location where the Coulomb stress was increased (earthquake advance, stress trigger) or decreased (earthquake delay, stress shadow) by the previous large earthquake. Using four models of the Landers rupture and a range of possible hypocentral planes for the Hector Mine earthquake, we discover that most scenarios yield a Landers-induced relaxation (stress shadow) on the Hector Mine hypocentral plane. Although this result would seem to weigh against the stress shadow hypothesis, the results become considerably more uncertain when the effects of a nearby Landers aftershock, the 1992 ML 5.4 Pisgah earthquake, are taken into account. We calculate the combined static Coulomb stress changes due to the Landers and Pisgah earthquakes to range from -0.3 to +0.3 MPa (- 3 to +3 bars) at the possible Hector Mine hypocenters, depending on choice of rupture model and hypocenter. These varied results imply that the Hector Mine earthquake does not provide a good test of the stress shadow hypothesis for large earthquake interactions. We use a simple approach, that of static dislocations in an elastic half-space, yet we still obtain a wide range of both negative and positive Coulomb stress changes. Our findings serve as a caution that more complex models purporting to explain the triggering or shadowing relationship between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes need to also consider the parametric and geometric uncertainties raised here.

Spatial-temporal variation of low-frequency earthquake bursts near Parkfield, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Chunquan; Guyer, Robert; Shelly, David R.; Trugman, D.; Frank, William; Gomberg, Joan S.; Johnson, P.

2015-01-01

Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with ∼730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.

Seismotectonics of the 2014 Chiang Rai, Thailand, earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pananont, P.; Herman, M. W.; Pornsopin, P.; Furlong, K. P.; Habangkaem, S.; Waldhauser, F.; Wongwai, W.; Limpisawad, S.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Wechbunthung, B.

2017-08-01

On 5 May 2014, a Mw 6.2 strike-slip earthquake occurred in the Mae Lao region of Chiang Rai province in Thailand. This earthquake took place in a region of known faults and caused substantial damage and injuries, although the region had been previously identified as having a relatively low earthquake hazard. Detailed field reconnaissance and deployment of a dense, temporary, network of broadband seismometers allowed details of the damage and its relationship to seismicity to be analyzed. The aftershock sequence associated with this main shock occurs on two well-defined trends, reflecting the two potential fault planes in earthquake mechanisms for the main shock and the majority of the aftershocks. The damage area was relatively large for an event of this magnitude, but building damage was largely limited to the primary rupture region, while liquefaction and other ground failure are spatially associated with the rupture area and along regional rivers. Stress modeling, combined with the time series and pattern of aftershock activity, leads us to propose that slip near the northern termination of the main shock rupture continued slightly onto a conjugate fault, helping to trigger the distinct pattern of two discrete, conjugate trends of aftershock activity that mirror the kinematics of the main shock fault mechanism.

Finite Moment Tensors of Southern California Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, T. H.; Chen, P.; Zhao, L.

2003-12-01

We have developed procedures for inverting broadband waveforms for the finite moment tensors (FMTs) of regional earthquakes. The FMT is defined in terms of second-order polynomial moments of the source space-time function and provides the lowest order representation of a finite fault rupture; it removes the fault-plane ambiguity of the centroid moment tensor (CMT) and yields several additional parameters of seismological interest: the characteristic length L{c}, width W{c}, and duration T{c} of the faulting, as well as the directivity vector {v}{d} of the fault slip. To formulate the inverse problem, we follow and extend the methods of McGuire et al. [2001, 2002], who have successfully recovered the second-order moments of large earthquakes using low-frequency teleseismic data. We express the Fourier spectra of a synthetic point-source waveform in its exponential (Rytov) form and represent the observed waveform relative to the synthetic in terms two frequency-dependent differential times, a phase delay δ τ {p}(ω ) and an amplitude-reduction time δ τ {q}(ω ), which we measure using Gee and Jordan's [1992] isolation-filter technique. We numerically calculate the FMT partial derivatives in terms of second-order spatiotemporal gradients, which allows us to use 3D finite-difference seismograms as our isolation filters. We have applied our methodology to a set of small to medium-sized earthquakes in Southern California. The errors in anelastic structure introduced perturbations larger than the signal level caused by finite source effect. We have therefore employed a joint inversion technique that recovers the CMT parameters of the aftershocks, as well as the CMT and FMT parameters of the mainshock, under the assumption that the source finiteness of the aftershocks can be ignored. The joint system of equations relating the δ τ {p} and δ τ {q} data to the source parameters of the mainshock-aftershock cluster is denuisanced for path anomalies in both observables

Identification and characterization of earthquake clusters: a comparative analysis for selected sequences in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Gentili, Stefania

2017-04-01

Identification and statistical characterization of seismic clusters may provide useful insights about the features of seismic energy release and their relation to physical properties of the crust within a given region. Moreover, a number of studies based on spatio-temporal analysis of main-shocks occurrence require preliminary declustering of the earthquake catalogs. Since various methods, relying on different physical/statistical assumptions, may lead to diverse classifications of earthquakes into main events and related events, we aim to investigate the classification differences among different declustering techniques. Accordingly, a formal selection and comparative analysis of earthquake clusters is carried out for the most relevant earthquakes in North-Eastern Italy, as reported in the local OGS-CRS bulletins, compiled at the National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics since 1977. The comparison is then extended to selected earthquake sequences associated with a different seismotectonic setting, namely to events that occurred in the region struck by the recent Central Italy destructive earthquakes, making use of INGV data. Various techniques, ranging from classical space-time windows methods to ad hoc manual identification of aftershocks, are applied for detection of earthquake clusters. In particular, a statistical method based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in space-time-energy domain, is considered. Results from clusters identification by the nearest-neighbor method turn out quite robust with respect to the time span of the input catalogue, as well as to minimum magnitude cutoff. The identified clusters for the largest events reported in North-Eastern Italy since 1977 are well consistent with those reported in earlier studies, which were aimed at detailed manual aftershocks identification. The study shows that the data-driven approach, based on the nearest-neighbor distances, can be satisfactorily applied to decompose the seismic

The 2014 Mw 6.0 Napa Earthquake, California: Observations from Real-time GPS-enhanced Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johanson, I. A.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

2014-12-01

Recently, progress has been made to demonstrate feasibility and benefits of including real-time GPS (rtGPS) in earthquake early warning and rapid response systems. While most concepts have yet to be integrated into operational environments, the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory is currently running an rtGPS based finite fault inversion scheme in true real-time, which is triggered by the seismic-based ShakeAlert system and then sends updated earthquake alerts to a test receiver. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) was online and responded to the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa earthquake in California. We review G-larmS' performance during this event and for 13 aftershocks, and we present rtGPS observations and real-time modeling results for the main shock. The first distributed slip model and a magnitude estimate of Mw5.5 were available 24 s after the event origin time, which could be reduced to 14 s after a bug fix (~8 s S-wave travel time, ~6 s data latency). The system continued to re-estimate the magnitude once every second: it increased to Mw5.9 3 s after the first alert and stabilized at Mw5.8 after 15 s. G-larmS' solutions for the subsequent small magnitude aftershocks demonstrate that Mw~6.0 is the current limit for alert updates to contribute back to the seismic-based early warning system.

Forecasting the (un)productivity of the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa aftershock sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

The 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa mainshock produced fewer aftershocks than expected for a California earthquake of its magnitude. In the first 4.5 days, only 59 M≥1.8 aftershocks occurred, the largest of which was an M 3.9 that happened a little over two days after the mainshock. We investigate the aftershock productivity of the South Napa sequence and compare it with other M≥5.5 California strike‐slip mainshock–aftershock sequences. While the productivity of the South Napa sequence is among the lowest, northern California mainshocks generally have fewer aftershocks than mainshocks further south, although the productivities vary widely in both regions. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988) fit to Napa seismicity from 1980 to 23 August 2014 fits the sequence well and suggests that low‐productivity sequences are typical of this area. Utilizing regional variations in productivity could improve operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) by improving the model used immediately after the mainshock. We show this by comparing the daily rate of M≥2 aftershocks to forecasts made with the generic California model (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989; hereafter, RJ89), RJ89 models with productivity updated daily, a generic California ETAS model, an ETAS model based on premainshock seismicity, and ETAS models updated daily following the mainshock. RJ89 models for which only the productivity is updated provide better forecasts than the generic RJ89 California model, and the Napa‐specific ETAS models forecast the aftershock rates more accurately than either generic model. Therefore, forecasts that use localized initial parameters and that rapidly update the productivity may be better for OEF than using a generic model and/or updating all parameters.

Earthquake prediction in California using regression algorithms and cloud-based big data infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asencio-Cortés, G.; Morales-Esteban, A.; Shang, X.; Martínez-Álvarez, F.

2018-06-01

Earthquake magnitude prediction is a challenging problem that has been widely studied during the last decades. Statistical, geophysical and machine learning approaches can be found in literature, with no particularly satisfactory results. In recent years, powerful computational techniques to analyze big data have emerged, making possible the analysis of massive datasets. These new methods make use of physical resources like cloud based architectures. California is known for being one of the regions with highest seismic activity in the world and many data are available. In this work, the use of several regression algorithms combined with ensemble learning is explored in the context of big data (1 GB catalog is used), in order to predict earthquakes magnitude within the next seven days. Apache Spark framework, H2 O library in R language and Amazon cloud infrastructure were been used, reporting very promising results.

Dual megathrust slip behaviors of the 2014 Iquique earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Lingsen; Huang, Hui; Bürgmann, Roland; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Strader, Anne

2015-02-01

The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of northern Chile. This event was preceded by a long foreshock sequence including a 2-week-long migration of seismicity initiated by a Mw 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes were found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock hypocenter, suggesting a large-scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence times of the repeating earthquakes highlight the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while repeaters that occurred both before and after the mainshock were in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatiotemporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrates the essential role of propagating aseismic slip leading up to the mainshock and illuminates the distribution of postseismic afterslip. Various finite fault models indicate that the largest coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show an emergent onset of moment rate at low frequency (< 0.1 Hz), while back-projection shows a steady increase of high frequency power (> 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the rupture expands in rich bursts along the rim of a semi-elliptical region with episodes of re-ruptures, suggesting delayed failure of asperities. The high-frequency rupture remains within an

Seismo-Tectonics of the 2014 Chiang Rai, Thailand, Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furlong, K. P.; Pananont, P.; Herman, M. W.; Waldhauser, F.; Pornsopin, P.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.

2016-12-01

On 5 May 2014, a Mw 6.2 strike-slip earthquake struck in the Mae Lao region of Chiang Rai province in Thailand. This earthquake occurred in a region of known faults, but identified as relatively low earthquake hazard, and caused substantial damage and injuries. Detailed field reconnaissance and deployment of a dense, temporary seismometer network allowed details of the damage and its relationship to seismicity to be analyzed. The aftershock sequence associated with this mainshock occurs on two well-defined trends, reflecting the two potential fault planes in earthquake focal mechanisms for the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks. The damage area was relatively large for an event of this magnitude, but primarily occurs within the primary rupture (aftershock) region or along regional rivers with soils susceptible to liquefaction of other ground failure. Stress modeling combined with the time-series and pattern of aftershock activity lead us to propose that the initial mainshock rupture continued slightly onto its conjugate faults near its northern termination, helping to trigger the distinct pattern of two discrete, conjugate trends of aftershock activity that mirror the kinematics of the mainshock fault mechanism. Although this earthquake occurred in a region of known faults, it cannot be directly linked to a previously mapped structure. This coupled with the substantial damage from the event indicates that there is potentially a higher earthquake hazard in northern and central Thailand than previously recognized.

Observations of a hydrofracture induced earthquake sequence in Harrison County Ohio in 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friberg, P. A.; Brudzinski, M. R.; Currie, B. S.; Skoumal, R.

2015-12-01

On October 7, 2014, a Mw 1.9 earthquake was detected and located using the IRIS Earthscope Transportable Array stations in Ohio. The earthquake was located at a depth of ~3 km near the interface of the Paleozoic sedimentary rocks with the crystalline Precambrian basement. The location is within a few kilometers laterally of a 2013 earthquake sequence that was linked to hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations on three wells in Harrison county (Friberg et al, 2014). Using the Mw 1.9 event as a template in a multi-component cross correlation detector on station O53A, over 1000 matching detections were revealed between September 26 - October 17, 2014. These detections were all coincident in time with HF operations on 3 nearby (< 1km away) horizontally drilled wells (Tarbert 1H, 3H, and 5H) in the Utica formation (~2.4 km depth). The HF operations at two of the wells (1H and 5H) were coincident with the majority of the detected events. The final well (3H) stimulated in the series, produced only about 20 identified events. In addition to the coincident timing with nearby HF operations, the time clustered nature of the detections were similar to the 2013 sequence and two other Ohio HF induced sequences in 2014 (Skoumal et al, 2015). All of the other HF induced earthquake sequences in Ohio were related to operations in the Utica formation. Interestingly, this sequence of earthquakes did not follow a simple Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency relationship and was deficient in positive magnitude events; the magnitude 1.9 was preceded by a magnitude 1.7, and only a ½ dozen events slightly above magnitude 0.0. The majority of the events detected were below magnitude 0.0, with some as low as magnitude -2.0. While the majority of detections are too small to locate, high similarity in waveform character indicate they are spatially near to the magnitude 1.9 event. Furthermore, gradual shifts in P phase arrival relative to S phases indicate events are moving away from the station

Cross-sections and maps showing double-difference relocated earthquakes from 1984-2000 along the Hayward and Calaveras faults, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, Robert W.; Graymer, Russell W.; Jachens, Robert C.; Ponce, David A.; Wentworth, Carl M.

2004-01-01

We present cross-section and map views of earthquakes that occurred from 1984 to 2000 in the vicinity of the Hayward and Calaveras faults in the San Francisco Bay region, California. These earthquakes came from a catalog of events relocated using the double-difference technique, which provides superior relative locations of nearby events. As a result, structures such as fault surfaces and alignments of events along these surfaces are more sharply defined than in previous catalogs.

A record of large earthquakes during the past two millennia on the southern Green Valley Fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, James J.; Baldwin, John N.; Turner, Robert; Sickler, Robert R.; Brown, Johnathan

2013-01-01

We document evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes (events) at two trench sites on the southern Green Valley fault, California (SGVF). The 75-80-km long dextral SGVF creeps ~1-4 mm/yr. We identify stratigraphic horizons disrupted by upward-flowering shears and in-filled fissures unlikely to have formed from creep alone. The Mason Rd site exhibits four events from ~1013 CE to the Present. The Lopes Ranch site (LR, 12 km to the south) exhibits three events from 18 BCE to Present including the most recent event (MRE), 1610 ±52 yr CE (1σ) and a two-event interval (18 BCE-238 CE) isolated by a millennium of low deposition. Using Oxcal to model the timing of the 4-event earthquake sequence from radiocarbon data and the LR MRE yields a mean recurrence interval (RI or μ) of 199 ±82 yr (1σ) and ±35 yr (standard error of the mean), the first based on geologic data. The time since the most recent earthquake (open window since MRE) is 402 yr ±52 yr, well past μ~200 yr. The shape of the probability density function (pdf) of the average RI from Oxcal resembles a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) pdf (i.e., rather than normal) that permits rarer longer ruptures potentially involving the Berryessa and Hunting Creek sections of the northernmost GVF. The model coefficient of variation (cv, σ/μ) is 0.41, but a larger value (cv ~0.6) fits better when using BPT. A BPT pdf with μ of 250 yr and cv of 0.6 yields 30-yr rupture probabilities of 20-25% versus a Poisson probability of 11-17%.

Prototype operational earthquake prediction system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spall, Henry

1986-01-01

An objective if the U.S. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 is to introduce into all regions of the country that are subject to large and moderate earthquakes, systems for predicting earthquakes and assessing earthquake risk. In 1985, the USGS developed for the Secretary of the Interior a program for implementation of a prototype operational earthquake prediction system in southern California.

The 1954 Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley earthquakes: A triggered normal faulting sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgkinson, Kathleen M.; Stein, Ross S.; King, Geoffrey C. P.

1996-11-01

In 1954, four earthquakes of M > 6.0 occurred within a 30 km radius in a period of six months. The Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley earthquakes are among the largest to have been recorded geodetically in the Basin and Range province. The Fairview Peak earthquake (M = 7.2, December 12, 1954) followed two events in the Rainbow Mountains (M = 6.2, July 6, and M = 6.5, August 24, 1954) by 6 months. Four minutes later the Dixie Valley fault ruptured (M = 6.7, December 12, 1954). The changes in static stresses caused by the events are calculated using the Coulomb-Navier failure criterion and assuming uniform slip on rectangular dislocations embedded in an elastic half-space. Coulomb stress changes are resolved on optimally oriented faults and on each of the faults that ruptured in the chain of events. These calculations show that each earthquake in the Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley sequence was preceded by a static stress change that encouraged failure. The magnitude of the stress increases transferred from one earthquake to another ranged from 0.01 MPa (0.1 bar) to over 0.1 MPa (1 bar). Stresses were reduced by up to 0.1 MPa over most of the Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak area as a result of the earthquake sequence.

The 1954 Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley earthquakes: A triggered normal faulting sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkinson, K.M.; Stein, R.S.; King, G.C.P.

1996-01-01

In 1954, four earthquakes of M > 6.0 occurred within a 30 km radius in a period of six months. The Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley earthquakes are among the largest to have been recorded geodetically in the Basin and Range province. The Fairview Peak earthquake (M=7.2, December 12, 1954) followed two events in the Rainbow Mountains (M=6.2, July 6, and M=6.5, August 24, 1954) by 6 months. Four minutes later the Dixie Valley fault ruptured (M=6.7, December 12, 1954). The changes in static stresses caused by the events are calculated using the Coulomb-Navier failure criterion and assuming uniform slip on rectangular dislocations embedded in an elastic half-space. Coulomb stress changes are resolved on optimally oriented faults and on each of the faults that ruptured in the chain of events. These calculations show that each earthquake in the Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley sequence was preceded by a static stress change that encouraged failure. The magnitude of the stress increases transferred from one earthquake to another ranged from 0.01 MPa (0.1 bar) to over 0.1 MPa (1 bar). Stresses were reduced by up to 0.1 MPa over most of the Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak area as a result of the earthquake sequence. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

The Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes Under Certain Circumstances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodacre, A. K.

2004-05-01

Although it would be lunacy to claim that all earthquakes are triggered by the motions of the Moon and Sun, there are certain circumstances where these celestial bodies might play a role. This would especially be the case where pre-existing, nearly vertical zones of weakness are present and, hence, the solid-earth tidal stresses would have maximum effect. I have investigated two possible areas: i) the Charlevoix seismic region of Québec along the St. Lawrence River and )ii the San Andreas and Calaveras Faults in California. In the Charlevoix region there a few suites of earthquakes, recognized by Maurice Lamontagne and lying mainly beneath or at the edge of the St. Lawrence River, in which the events in each suite occur in a relatively small volume of rock and produce similar waveforms characteristic of the particular location involved. This sort of repeated rupturing suggests the possibility of triggering by solid-earth and/or marine tides. In one sequence of 9 events (2 of which are left out of the analysis because they are aftershocks) it appears that there is only about one chance in ten that this sequence occurred at random. Unfortunately, there are no fault-plane solutions for any events in this particular set of earthquakes and so it is difficult to comment on failure mechanisms. However, in the case of the Calaveras and San Andreas Faults of California where fault-plane solutions are often available, if we restrict our attention to the larger, strike-slip earthquakes, it appears that lunar and solar tides (both solid-earth and marine) do, in fact, play a role in the timing of these events and the triggering mechanism may involve the amount of incremental normal stress acting upon these two faults.

Simulating Earthquakes for Science and Society: Earthquake Visualizations Ideal for use in Science Communication and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Groot, R.

2008-12-01

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has been developing groundbreaking computer modeling capabilities for studying earthquakes. These visualizations were initially shared within the scientific community but have recently gained visibility via television news coverage in Southern California. Computers have opened up a whole new world for scientists working with large data sets, and students can benefit from the same opportunities (Libarkin & Brick, 2002). For example, The Great Southern California ShakeOut was based on a potential magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault. The visualization created for the ShakeOut was a key scientific and communication tool for the earthquake drill. This presentation will also feature SCEC Virtual Display of Objects visualization software developed by SCEC Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology interns. According to Gordin and Pea (1995), theoretically visualization should make science accessible, provide means for authentic inquiry, and lay the groundwork to understand and critique scientific issues. This presentation will discuss how the new SCEC visualizations and other earthquake imagery achieve these results, how they fit within the context of major themes and study areas in science communication, and how the efficacy of these tools can be improved.

Simulation Based Earthquake Forecasting with RSQSim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Dieterich, J. H.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.

2016-12-01

We are developing a physics-based forecasting model for earthquake ruptures in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim to generate synthetic catalogs with millions of events that span up to a million years. The simulations incorporate rate-state fault constitutive properties in complex, fully interacting fault systems. The Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) model and data sets are used for calibration of the catalogs and specification of fault geometry. Fault slip rates match the UCERF3 geologic slip rates and catalogs are tuned such that earthquake recurrence matches the UCERF3 model. Utilizing the Blue Waters Supercomputer, we produce a suite of million-year catalogs to investigate the epistemic uncertainty in the physical parameters used in the simulations. In particular, values of the rate- and state-friction parameters a and b, the initial shear and normal stress, as well as the earthquake slip speed, are varied over several simulations. In addition to testing multiple models with homogeneous values of the physical parameters, the parameters a, b, and the normal stress are varied with depth as well as in heterogeneous patterns across the faults. Cross validation of UCERF3 and RSQSim is performed within the SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) to determine the affect of the uncertainties in physical parameters observed in the field and measured in the lab, on the uncertainties in probabilistic forecasting. We are particularly interested in the short-term hazards of multi-event sequences due to complex faulting and multi-fault ruptures.

Monte Carlo Method for Determining Earthquake Recurrence Parameters from Short Paleoseismic Catalogs: Example Calculations for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Tom

2008-01-01

Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques [e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999]. In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means [e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006]. For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDF?s, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.

2008-01-01

Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques (e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999). In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means (e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006). For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDFs, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

Earthquakes, July-August 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1992-01-01

There was one major earthquake during this reporting period-a magnitude 7.1 shock off the coast of Northern California on August 17. Earthquake-related deaths were reported from Indonesia, Romania, Peru, and Iraq. 

CRUSTAL REFRACTION PROFILE OF THE LONG VALLEY CALDERA, CALIFORNIA, FROM THE JANUARY 1983 MAMMOTH LAKES EARTHQUAKE SWARM.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luetgert, James H.; Mooney, Walter D.

1985-01-01

Seismic-refraction profiles recorded north of Mammoth Lakes, California, using earthquake sources from the January 1983 swarm complement earlier explosion refraction profiles and provide velocity information from deeper in the crust in the area of the Long Valley caldera. Eight earthquakes from a depth range of 4. 9 to 8. 0 km confirm the observation of basement rocks with seismic velocities ranging from 5. 8 to 6. 4 km/sec extending at least to depths of 20 km. The data provide further evidence for the existence of a partial melt zone beneath Long Valley caldera and constrain its geometry. Refs.

Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua; ,

2013-01-01

In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of

Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thenhaus, P.C.

1990-01-01

A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

Source processes of industrially-induced earthquakes at the Geysers geothermal area, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, A.; Foulger, G.R.; Julian, B.R.

1999-01-01

Microearthquake activity at The Geysers geothermal area, California, mirrors the steam production rate, suggesting that the earthquakes are industrially induced. A 15-station network of digital, three-component seismic stations was operated for one month in 1991, and 3,900 earthquakes were recorded. Highly-accurate moment tensors were derived for 30 of the best recorded earthquakes by tracing rays through tomographically derived 3-D VP and VP / VS structures, and inverting P-and S-wave polarities and amplitude ratios. The orientations of the P-and T-axes are very scattered, suggesting that there is no strong, systematic deviatoric stress field in the reservoir, which could explain why the earthquakes are not large. Most of the events had significant non-double-couple (non-DC) components in their source mechanisms with volumetric components up to ???30% of the total moment. Explosive and implosive sources were observed in approximately equal numbers, and must be caused by cavity creation (or expansion) and collapse. It is likely that there is a causal relationship between these processes and fluid reinjection and steam withdrawal. Compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) components were up to 100% of the deviatoric component. Combinations of opening cracks and shear faults cannot explain all the observations, and rapid fluid flow may also be involved. The pattern of non-DC failure at The Geysers contrasts with that of the Hengill-Grensdalur area in Iceland, a largely unexploited water-dominated field in an extensional stress regime. These differences are poorly understood but may be linked to the contrasting regional stress regimes and the industrial exploitation at The Geysers.

Northern California Earthquake Data Center: Data Sets and Data Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhauser, D. S.; Allen, R. M.; Zuzlewski, S.

2015-12-01

The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides a permanent archive and real-time data distribution services for a unique and comprehensive data set of seismological and geophysical data sets encompassing northern and central California. We provide access to over 85 terabytes of continuous and event-based time series data from broadband, short-period, strong motion, and strain sensors as well as continuous and campaign GPS data at both standard and high sample rates. The Northen California Seismic System (NCSS), operated by UC Berkeley and USGS Menlo Park, has recorded over 900,000 events from 1984 to the present, and the NCEDC serves catalog, parametric information, moment tensors and first motion mechanisms, and time series data for these events. We also serve event catalogs, parametric information, and event waveforms for DOE enhanced geothermal system monitoring in northern California and Nevada. The NCEDC provides a several ways for users to access these data. The most recent development are web services, which provide interactive, command-line, or program-based workflow access to data. Web services use well-established server and client protocols and RESTful software architecture that allow users to easily submit queries and receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, simple text, or MiniSEED depending on the service and selected output format. The NCEDC supports all FDSN-defined web services as well as a number of IRIS-defined and NCEDC-defined services. We also continue to support older email-based and browser-based access to data. NCEDC data and web services can be found at http://www.ncedc.org and http://service.ncedc.org.

Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.

2014-12-01

South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

Earthquakes, September-October 1978

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1979-01-01

The months of September and October were somewhat quiet seismically speaking. One major earthquake, magnitude (M) 7.7 occurred in Iran on September 16. In Germany, a magntidue 5.0 earthquake caused damage and considerable alarm to many people in parts of that country. In the United States, the largest earthquake occurred along the California-Nevada border region. 

Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Der Elst, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Elst, Nicholas J.

2017-11-01

Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

Dynamic 3D simulations of earthquakes on en echelon faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, R.A.; Day, S.M.

1999-01-01

One of the mysteries of earthquake mechanics is why earthquakes stop. This process determines the difference between small and devastating ruptures. One possibility is that fault geometry controls earthquake size. We test this hypothesis using a numerical algorithm that simulates spontaneous rupture propagation in a three-dimensional medium and apply our knowledge to two California fault zones. We find that the size difference between the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquakes may be the product of a stepover at the southern end of the 1934 earthquake and show how the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake followed physically reasonable expectations when it jumped across en echelon faults to become a large event. If there are no linking structures, such as transfer faults, then strike-slip earthquakes are unlikely to propagate through stepovers >5 km wide. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

The Southern California Earthquake Survival Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, J.M.

1989-01-01

In July 1988, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors directed the Chief Administrative Office to develop an educational program aimed at improving earthquake preparedness among Los Angeles County residents. the board recognized that current earthquake education efforts were not only insufficient, but also often confusing and costly. The board unanimously approved the development of a program that would make earthquake preparedness a year-long effort by encouraging residents to take a different precaution each month. 

Dynamic modeling of normal faults of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo

2017-04-01

The earthquake sequence of the Central Italy in 2016 are characterized mainly by the Mw6.0 24th August, Mw5.9 26th October and Mw6.4 30th October as well as two Mw5.4 earthquakes (24th August, 26th October) (catalogue INGV). They all show normal faulting mechanisms corresponding to the Apennines's tectonics. They are aligned briefly along NNW-SSE axis, and they may not be on a single continuous fault plane. Therefore, dynamic rupture modeling of sequences should be carried out supposing co-planar normal multiple segments. We apply a Boundary Domain Method (BDM, Goto and Bielak, GJI, 2008) coupling a boundary integral equation method and a domain-based method, namely a finite difference method in this study. The Mw6.0 24th August earthquake is modeled. We use the basic information of hypocenter position, focal mechanism and potential ruptured dimension from the INGV catalogue and Tinti et al., GRL, 2016), and begin with a simple condition (homogeneous boundary condition). From our preliminary simulations, it is shown that a uniformly extended rupture model does not fit the near-field ground motions and localized heterogeneity would be required.

Inventory of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, Edwin L.; Jibson, Randall W.

1995-01-01

The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake (M=6.7) triggered more than 11,000 landslides over an area of about 10,000 km?. Most of the landslides were concentrated in a 1,000-km? area that includes the Santa Susana Mountains and the mountains north of the Santa Clara River valley. We mapped landslides triggered by the earthquake in the field and from 1:60,000-scale aerial photography provided by the U.S. Air Force and taken the morning of the earthquake; these were subsequently digitized and plotted in a GIS-based format, as shown on the accompanying maps (which also are accessible via Internet). Most of the triggered landslides were shallow (1-5 m), highly disrupted falls and slides in weakly cemented Tertiary to Pleistocene clastic sediment. Average volumes of these types of landslides were less than 1,000 m?, but many had volumes exceeding 100,000 m?. Many of the larger disrupted slides traveled more than 50 m, and a few moved as far as 200 m from the bases of steep parent slopes. Deeper ( >5 m) rotational slumps and block slides numbered in the hundreds, a few of which exceeded 100,000 m? in volume. The largest triggered landslide was a block slide having a volume of 8X10E06 m?. Triggered landslides damaged or destroyed dozens of homes, blocked roads, and damaged oil-field infrastructure. Analysis of landslide distribution with respect to variations in (1) landslide susceptibility and (2) strong shaking recorded by hundreds of instruments will form the basis of a seismic landslide hazard analysis of the Los Angeles area.

Triggering of repeating earthquakes in central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Chunquan; Gomberg, Joan; Ben-Naim, Eli; Johnson, Paul

2014-01-01

Dynamic stresses carried by transient seismic waves have been found capable of triggering earthquakes instantly in various tectonic settings. Delayed triggering may be even more common, but the mechanisms are not well understood. Catalogs of repeating earthquakes, earthquakes that recur repeatedly at the same location, provide ideal data sets to test the effects of transient dynamic perturbations on the timing of earthquake occurrence. Here we employ a catalog of 165 families containing ~2500 total repeating earthquakes to test whether dynamic perturbations from local, regional, and teleseismic earthquakes change recurrence intervals. The distance to the earthquake generating the perturbing waves is a proxy for the relative potential contributions of static and dynamic deformations, because static deformations decay more rapidly with distance. Clear changes followed the nearby 2004 Mw6 Parkfield earthquake, so we study only repeaters prior to its origin time. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to compare the observed number of shortened recurrence intervals following dynamic perturbations with the distribution of this number estimated for randomized perturbation times. We examine the comparison for a series of dynamic stress peak amplitude and distance thresholds. The results suggest a weak correlation between dynamic perturbations in excess of ~20 kPa and shortened recurrence intervals, for both nearby and remote perturbations.

Earthquakes, July-August, 1979

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1980-01-01

In the United States, on August 6, central California experienced a moderately strong earthquake, which injured several people and caused some damage. A number of earthquakes occurred in other parts of the United States but caused very little damage. 

Earthquake effects at nuclear reactor facilities: San Fernando earthquake of February 9th, 1971

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Howard, G.; Ibanez, P.; Matthiesen, F.

1972-02-01

The effects of the San Fernando earthquake of February 9, 1971 on 26 reactor facilities located in California, Arizona, and Nevada are reported. The safety performance of the facilities during the earthquake is discussed. (JWR)

Converting Advances in Seismology into Earthquake Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauksson, Egill; Shearer, Peter; Vidale, John

2004-01-01

Federal and state agencies and university groups all operate seismic networks in California. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates seismic networks in California in cooperation with the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in southern California, and the University of California (UC) at Berkeley in northern California. The California Geological Survey (CGS) and the USGS National Strong Motion Program (NSMP) operate dial-out strong motion instruments in the state, primarily to capture data from large earthquakes for earthquake engineering and, more recently, emergency response. The California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (OES) provides leadership for the most recent project, the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN), to integrate all of the California efforts, and to take advantage of the emergency response capabilities of the seismic networks. The core members of the CISN are Caltech, UC Berkeley, CGS, USGS Menlo Park, and USGS Pasadena (http://www.cisn.org). New seismic instrumentation is in place across southern California, and significant progress has been made in improving instrumentation in northern California. Since 2001, these new field instrumentation efforts, data sharing, and software development for real-time reporting and archiving have been coordinated through the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). The CISN is also the California region of the Advanced National Seismic Network (ANSS). In addition, EarthScope deployments of USArray that will begin in early 2004 in California are coordinated with the CISN. The southern and northern California earthquake data centers (SCEDC and NCEDC) have new capabilities that enable seismologists to obtain large volumes of data with only modest effort.

Spatial Evaluation and Verification of Earthquake Simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Schultz, Kasey W.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we address the problem of verifying earthquake simulators with observed data. Earthquake simulators are a class of computational simulations which attempt to mirror the topological complexity of fault systems on which earthquakes occur. In addition, the physics of friction and elastic interactions between fault elements are included in these simulations. Simulation parameters are adjusted so that natural earthquake sequences are matched in their scaling properties. Physically based earthquake simulators can generate many thousands of years of simulated seismicity, allowing for a robust capture of the statistical properties of large, damaging earthquakes that have long recurrence time scales. Verification of simulations against current observed earthquake seismicity is necessary, and following past simulator and forecast model verification methods, we approach the challenges in spatial forecast verification to simulators; namely, that simulator outputs are confined to the modeled faults, while observed earthquake epicenters often occur off of known faults. We present two methods for addressing this discrepancy: a simplistic approach whereby observed earthquakes are shifted to the nearest fault element and a smoothing method based on the power laws of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model, which distributes the seismicity of each simulated earthquake over the entire test region at a decaying rate with epicentral distance. To test these methods, a receiver operating characteristic plot was produced by comparing the rate maps to observed m>6.0 earthquakes in California since 1980. We found that the nearest-neighbor mapping produced poor forecasts, while the ETAS power-law method produced rate maps that agreed reasonably well with observations.

Application of an improved spectral decomposition method to examine earthquake source scaling in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, Daniel T.; Shearer, Peter M.

2017-04-01

Earthquake source spectra contain fundamental information about the dynamics of earthquake rupture. However, the inherent tradeoffs in separating source and path effects, when combined with limitations in recorded signal bandwidth, make it challenging to obtain reliable source spectral estimates for large earthquake data sets. We present here a stable and statistically robust spectral decomposition method that iteratively partitions the observed waveform spectra into source, receiver, and path terms. Unlike previous methods of its kind, our new approach provides formal uncertainty estimates and does not assume self-similar scaling in earthquake source properties. Its computational efficiency allows us to examine large data sets (tens of thousands of earthquakes) that would be impractical to analyze using standard empirical Green's function-based approaches. We apply the spectral decomposition technique to P wave spectra from five areas of active contemporary seismicity in Southern California: the Yuha Desert, the San Jacinto Fault, and the Big Bear, Landers, and Hector Mine regions of the Mojave Desert. We show that the source spectra are generally consistent with an increase in median Brune-type stress drop with seismic moment but that this observed deviation from self-similar scaling is both model dependent and varies in strength from region to region. We also present evidence for significant variations in median stress drop and stress drop variability on regional and local length scales. These results both contribute to our current understanding of earthquake source physics and have practical implications for the next generation of ground motion prediction assessments.

Computer systems for automatic earthquake detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, S.W.

1974-01-01

U.S Geological Survey seismologists in Menlo park, California, are utilizing the speed, reliability, and efficiency of minicomputers to monitor seismograph stations and to automatically detect earthquakes. An earthquake detection computer system, believed to be the only one of its kind in operation, automatically reports about 90 percent of all local earthquakes recorded by a network of over 100 central California seismograph stations. The system also monitors the stations for signs of malfunction or abnormal operation. Before the automatic system was put in operation, all of the earthquakes recorded had to be detected by manually searching the records, a time-consuming process. With the automatic detection system, the stations are efficiently monitored continuously. 

Earthquake!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hernandez, Hildo

2000-01-01

Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 earthquake and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)

Waveform Classification of the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake Sequence Using Hierarchical Clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, J. S.; Son, M.; Cho, C.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Gyeongju earthquakes, including the ML 5.8 earthquake of September 12, 2016 ccurred around the Yangsan Fault System, which is the most prominent set of lineaments on the Korean Peninsula. The main event is the largest earthquake recorded since instrumental recording began in South Korea We analysed the waveforms of earthquake sequence to better understand the seismicity around this fault system. We defined groups of relocated hypocenters using hierarchical clustering based on waveform similarity. The 2016 Gyeongju events are classified into three major groups: Group A with 185 events, Group B with 134 events, and Group C with 45 events. The waveform similarity of each group was confirmed by the matrix of correlation coefficients. The three groups of waveforms wereare identified in space: the events of Group A occurred at shallower depths than those of Group B, while those of Group C occurred at intermediate depths at the north side. The eight major events occurred in the area including Group A and Group B, whereas the area of Group C produceds no major events. Therefore, the area of Group C couldcan be excluded in considering a major asperity for the Gyeongju earthquakes. Earthquakes that are close together spatially with similar rupture mechanisms produce similar waveforms at the same common station. Thus, the hypocenters classified from the three groups of waveforms, based on waveform similarity imply that the inferred fault plane contains three zones locked under slightly different conditions.

A physical model for earthquakes. I - Fluctuations and interactions. II - Application to southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rundle, John B.

1988-01-01

The idea that earthquakes represent a fluctuation about the long-term motion of plates is expressed mathematically through the fluctuation hypothesis, under which all physical quantities which pertain to the occurance of earthquakes are required to depend on the difference between the present state of slip on the fault and its long-term average. It is shown that under certain circumstances the model fault dynamics undergo a sudden transition from a spatially ordered, temporally disordered state to a spatially disordered, temporally ordered state, and that the latter stages are stable for long intervals of time. For long enough faults, the dynamics are evidently chaotic. The methods developed are then used to construct a detailed model for earthquake dynamics in southern California. The result is a set of slip-time histories for all the major faults, which are similar to data obtained by geological trenching studies. Although there is an element of periodicity to the events, the patterns shift, change and evolve with time. Time scales for pattern evolution seem to be of the order of a thousand years for average recurring intervals of about a hundred years.

The Canterbury Tales: Lessons from the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence to Inform Better Public Communication Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McBride, S.; Tilley, E. N.; Johnston, D. M.; Becker, J.; Orchiston, C.

2015-12-01

This research evaluates the public education earthquake information prior to the Canterbury Earthquake sequence (2010-present), and examines communication learnings to create recommendations for improvement in implementation for these types of campaigns in future. The research comes from a practitioner perspective of someone who worked on these campaigns in Canterbury prior to the Earthquake Sequence and who also was the Public Information Manager Second in Command during the earthquake response in February 2011. Documents, specifically those addressing seismic risk, that were created prior to the earthquake sequence, were analyzed, using a "best practice matrix" created by the researcher, for how closely these aligned to best practice academic research. Readability tests and word counts are also employed to assist with triangulation of the data as was practitioner involvement. This research also outlines the lessons learned by practitioners and explores their experiences in regards to creating these materials and how they perceive these now, given all that has happened since the inception of the booklets. The findings from the research showed these documents lacked many of the attributes of best practice. The overly long, jargon filled text had little positive outcome expectancy messages. This probably would have failed to persuade anyone that earthquakes were a real threat in Canterbury. Paradoxically, it is likely these booklets may have created fatalism in publics who read the booklets. While the overall intention was positive, for scientists to explain earthquakes, tsunami, landslides and other risks to encourage the public to prepare for these events, the implementation could be greatly improved. This final component of the research highlights points of improvement for implementation for more successful campaigns in future. The importance of preparedness and science information campaigns can be not only in preparing the population but also into development of

The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence: Environmental effects, seismic triggering thresholds and geologic legacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quigley, Mark C.; Hughes, Matthew W.; Bradley, Brendon A.; van Ballegooy, Sjoerd; Reid, Catherine; Morgenroth, Justin; Horton, Travis; Duffy, Brendan; Pettinga, Jarg R.

2016-03-01

Seismic shaking and tectonic deformation during strong earthquakes can trigger widespread environmental effects. The severity and extent of a given effect relates to the characteristics of the causative earthquake and the intrinsic properties of the affected media. Documentation of earthquake environmental effects in well-instrumented, historical earthquakes can enable seismologic triggering thresholds to be estimated across a spectrum of geologic, topographic and hydrologic site conditions, and implemented into seismic hazard assessments, geotechnical engineering designs, palaeoseismic interpretations, and forecasts of the impacts of future earthquakes. The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), including the moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 Darfield earthquake and Mw 6.2, 6.0, 5.9, and 5.8 aftershocks, occurred on a suite of previously unidentified, primarily blind, active faults in the eastern South Island of New Zealand. The CES is one of Earth's best recorded historical earthquake sequences. The location of the CES proximal to and beneath a major urban centre enabled rapid and detailed collection of vast amounts of field, geospatial, geotechnical, hydrologic, biologic, and seismologic data, and allowed incremental and cumulative environmental responses to seismic forcing to be documented throughout a protracted earthquake sequence. The CES caused multiple instances of tectonic surface deformation (≥ 3 events), surface manifestations of liquefaction (≥ 11 events), lateral spreading (≥ 6 events), rockfall (≥ 6 events), cliff collapse (≥ 3 events), subsidence (≥ 4 events), and hydrological (10s of events) and biological shifts (≥ 3 events). The terrestrial area affected by strong shaking (e.g. peak ground acceleration (PGA) ≥ 0.1-0.3 g), and the maximum distances between earthquake rupture and environmental response (Rrup), both generally increased with increased earthquake Mw, but were also influenced by earthquake location and source

Preliminary report on the 29 July 2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills, Eastern Los Angeles Basin, California, Earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauksson, Egill; Felzer, Karen R.; Given, Doug; Giveon, Michal; Hough, Susan E.; Hutton, Kate; Kanamori, Hiroo; Sevilgen, Volkan; Wei, Shengji; Yong, Alan K.

2008-01-01

The 29 July 2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills earthquake was the largest event to occur within the greater Los Angeles metropolitan region since the Mw 6.7 1994 Northridge earthquake. The earthquake was widely felt in a metropolitan region with a population of more than 10 million people and was recorded by hundreds of broadband and strong-motion instruments. In this report we present preliminary analysis of the event and discuss its significance within the seismotectonic framework of the northern Los Angeles basin as revealed by previous moderate earthquakes.

Analysis of November 3, 2010 Kraljevo Earthquake (Mw=5.4) and Its Aftershock Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knezevic Antonijevic, S.; Arroucau, P.; Vlahovic, G.

2011-12-01

A Mw=5.4 earthquake occurred on November 3, 2010 near the City of Kraljevo, Serbia (lat. 43.765 N, long. 20.713 E) and was followed by a sequence of more than 650 aftershocks with magnitude greater than 1.0. Despite the moderate magnitude of the event, two people were killed, many other were injured, and the total damage to the city is estimated to more than 150 million dollars. Changes in ground water circulation, liquefaction features and rockfalls have also been reported in some places. The earthquake occurred on the southern rim of the Pannonian Basin, in SE-NW-trending Čačak-Kraljevo Basin, also known as West Morava graben. This basin was formed by activation of several deep and secondary shallower faults during Lower Miocene and represents the largest of the intradinaric depressions. Depths proposed by different agencies for the mainshock range between 2 and 30 km. Moment tensor solutions show a mostly strike-slip component on an EW or NS trending fault, with either normal or reverse component depending on the solutions. In order to better characterize the location and source characteristics of that earthquake, we obtained data from seismological institutions of Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Greece, Albania, Romania and Italy and we manually picked P and S wave arrival times and first motion polarities on the available seismograms for the entire mainshock-aftershock sequence. More than 100 events were precisely relocated and focal mechanisms were determined in the best cases. Our results confirm that Kraljevo earthquake probably involved the activation in strike-slip regime of an EW-trending fault located in the northern rim of the West Morava Graben, while the seismicity of the past decades was mostly confined to the southern rim of that basin. Key words: Seismotectonic, Balkan region, Serbia, Čačak-Kraljevo Basin, aftershock sequence, earthquake location, focal mechanism

Earthquakes March-April 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, Waverly J.

1992-01-01

The months of March and April were quite active seismically speaking. There was one major earthquake (7.0California. Earthquake-related deaths were reported in Iran, Costa Rica, Turkey, and Germany.

Future WGCEP Models and the Need for Earthquake Simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, E. H.

2008-12-01

The 2008 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) recently released the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 2 (UCERF 2), developed jointly by the USGS, CGS, and SCEC with significant support from the California Earthquake Authority. Although this model embodies several significant improvements over previous WGCEPs, the following are some of the significant shortcomings that we hope to resolve in a future UCERF3: 1) assumptions of fault segmentation and the lack of fault-to-fault ruptures; 2) the lack of an internally consistent methodology for computing time-dependent, elastic-rebound-motivated renewal probabilities; 3) the lack of earthquake clustering/triggering effects; and 4) unwarranted model complexity. It is believed by some that physics-based earthquake simulators will be key to resolving these issues, either as exploratory tools to help guide the present statistical approaches, or as a means to forecast earthquakes directly (although significant challenges remain with respect to the latter).

Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thenhaus, P.C.

1990-01-01

A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-12 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. They are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S. because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in US history. In contrast to California, where earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Eastern US are generally regarded as only historical phenomena. A fundamental problem in the Eastern US, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use andmore » civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the tools that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. The term earthquake risk, on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade structures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.« less

Slip on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, over two earthquake cycles, and the implications for seismic hazard

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray, J.; Langbein, J.

2006-01-01

Parkfield, California, which experienced M 6.0 earthquakes in 1934, 1966, and 2004, is one of the few locales for which geodetic observations span multiple earthquake cycles. We undertake a comprehensive study of deformation over the most recent earthquake cycle and explore the results in the context of geodetic data collected prior to the 1966 event. Through joint inversion of the variety of Parkfield geodetic measurements (trilateration, two-color laser, and Global Positioning System), including previously unpublished two-color data, we estimate the spatial distribution of slip and slip rate along the San Andreas using a fault geometry based on precisely relocated seismicity. Although the three most recent Parkfield earthquakes appear complementary in their along-strike distributions of slip, they do not produce uniform strain release along strike over multiple seismic cycles. Since the 1934 earthquake, more than 1 m of slip deficit has accumulated on portions of the fault that slipped in the 1966 and 2004 earthquakes, and an average of 2 m of slip deficit exists on the 33 km of the fault southeast of Gold Hill to be released in a future, perhaps larger, earthquake. It appears that the fault is capable of partially releasing stored strain in moderate earthquakes, maintaining a disequilibrium through multiple earthquake cycles. This complicates the application of simple earthquake recurrence models that assume only the strain accumulated since the most recent event is relevant to the size or timing of an upcoming earthquake. Our findings further emphasize that accumulated slip deficit is not sufficient for earthquake nucleation.

The Accidental Spokesperson - Science Communication during the 2010-2011 Christchurch, NZ Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furlong, K. P.

2015-12-01

Beginning September 4, 2010, with a Mw 7.1 earthquake, a multi-year earthquake sequence changed life in Canterbury NZ. Information communicated by a core group of university-based earthquake scientists provided accessible information to the general public, the press, and policy makers. Although at the start of this prolonged sequence, no one anticipated its longevity nor its impact, this initial (and largest) event did catalyze a demand from the public and policy makers for information and led to some important lessons in how to communicate science to a broad audience as an event unfolds and when it is personally important to the general public. Earthquakes are neither new nor rare to New Zealand, but the Christchurch area was seen as likely suffering only from the far-field effects of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault or Marlborough fault system. Policy makers had planned and expected that another city such as Wellington would be where they would need to respond. As a visiting faculty at the University of Canterbury, with expertise in earthquake science, I was entrained and engaged in the response - both the scientific and communication aspects. It soon became clear that formal press releases and statements from government ministries and agencies did little to address the questions and uncertainties that the public, the press, and even the policy makers had. Rather, a series of public lectures, broad ranging discussions with the media (both print and radio/television), and OpEd pieces provided by this small group of earthquake focused faculty at the University of Canterbury provided the background information, best estimates of what could occur in the future, and why Earth was acting as it was. This filled a critical gap in science information going to the public, and helped build a level of trust in the public that became critically needed after the situation escalated with subsequent damaging events through early-mid 2011, and onward.

Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, D. D.; Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.

2015-12-01

Maria Liukis, SCEC, USC; Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol; Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ Potsdam; John Yu, SCEC, USC; Philip Maechling, SCEC, USC; Jeremy Zechar, Swiss Seismological Service, ETH; Thomas H. Jordan, SCEC, USC, and the CSEP Working Group The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 435 models under evaluation. The California testing center, operated by SCEC, has been operational since Sept 1, 2007, and currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and worldwide. We have reduced testing latency, implemented prototype evaluation of M8 forecasts, and are currently developing formats and procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a DHS project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. A retrospective experiment for the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence has been completed, and the results indicate that some physics-based and hybrid models outperform purely statistical (e.g., ETAS) models. The experiment also demonstrates the power of the CSEP cyberinfrastructure for retrospective testing. Our current development includes evaluation strategies that increase computational efficiency for high-resolution global experiments, such as the evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss applications of CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and how CSEP procedures are being

Automatic analysis of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake aftershock sequence.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baillard, C.; Lyon-Caen, H.; Bollinger, L.; Rietbrock, A.; Letort, J.; Adhikari, L. B.

2016-12-01

The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, that partially ruptured the Main Himalayan Thrust North of Kathmandu on the 25th April 2015, was the largest and most catastrophic earthquake striking Nepal since the great M8.4 1934 earthquake. This mainshock was followed by multiple aftershocks, among them, two notable events that occurred on the 12th May with magnitudes of 7.3 Mw and 6.3 Mw. Due to these recent events it became essential for the authorities and for the scientific community to better evaluate the seismic risk in the region through a detailed analysis of the earthquake catalog, amongst others, the spatio-temporal distribution of the Gorkha aftershock sequence. Here we complement this first study by doing a microseismic study using seismic data coming from the eastern part of the Nepalese Seismological Center network associated to one broadband station in Everest. Our primary goal is to deliver an accurate catalog of the aftershock sequence. Due to the exceptional number of events detected we performed an automatic picking/locating procedure which can be splitted in 4 steps: 1) Coarse picking of the onsets using a classical STA/LTA picker, 2) phase association of picked onsets to detect and declare seismic events, 3) Kurtosis pick refinement around theoretical arrival times to increase picking and location accuracy and, 4) local magnitude calculation based amplitude of waveforms. This procedure is time efficient ( 1 sec/event), reduces considerably the location uncertainties ( 2 to 5 km errors) and increases the number of events detected compared to manual processing. Indeed, the automatic detection rate is 10 times higher than the manual detection rate. By comparing to the USGS catalog we were able to give a new attenuation law to compute local magnitudes in the region. A detailed analysis of the seismicity shows a clear migration toward the east of the region and a sudden decrease of seismicity 100 km east of Kathmandu which may reveal the presence of a tectonic

Postearthquake relaxation and aftershock accumulation linearly related after the 2003 M 6.5 Chengkung, Taiwan, and the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.; Yu, S.-B.

2007-01-01

We treat both the number of earthquakes and the deformation following a mainshock as the superposition of a steady background accumulation and the post-earthquake process. The preseismic displacement and seismicity rates ru and rE are used as estimates of the background rates. Let t be the time after the mainshock, u(t) + u0 the postseismic displacement less the background accumulation rut, and ??N(t) the observed cumulative number of postseismic earthquakes less the background accumulation rE t. For the first 160 days (duration limited by the occurrence of another nearby earthquake) following the Chengkung (M 6.5, 10 December 2003, eastern Taiwan) and the first 560 days following the Parkfield (M 6.0, 28 September 2004, central California) earthquakes u(t) + u0 is a linear function of ??N(t). The aftershock accumulation ??N(t) for both earthquakes is described by the modified Omori Law d??N/dt ?? (1 + t/??)-p with p = 0.96 and ?? = 0.03 days. Although the Chengkung earthquake involved sinistral, reverse slip on a moderately dipping fault and the Parkfield earthquake right-lateral slip on a near-vertical fault, the earthquakes share an unusual feature: both occurred on faults exhibiting interseismic fault creep at the surface. The source of the observed postseismic deformation appears to be afterslip on the coseismic rupture. The linear relation between u(t) + u0 and N(t) suggests that this afterslip also generates the aftershocks. The linear relation between u(t) + u0 and ??N(t) obtains after neither the 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine (southern California) nor the 1999 M 7.6 Chi-Chi (central Taiwan) earthquakes, neither of which occurred on fault segments exhibiting fault creep.

Multifractal analysis of 2001 Mw 7 . 7 Bhuj earthquake sequence in Gujarat, Western India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Sandeep Kumar; Pastén, Denisse; Khan, Prosanta Kumar

2017-12-01

The 2001 Mw 7 . 7 Bhuj mainshock seismic sequence in the Kachchh area, occurring during 2001 to 2012, has been analyzed using mono-fractal and multi-fractal dimension spectrum analysis technique. This region was characterized by frequent moderate shocks of Mw ≥ 5 . 0 for more than a decade since the occurrence of 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The present study is therefore important for precursory analysis using this sequence. The selected long-sequence has been investigated first time for completeness magnitude Mc 3.0 using the maximum curvature method. Multi-fractal Dq spectrum (Dq ∼ q) analysis was carried out using effective window-length of 200 earthquakes with a moving window of 20 events overlapped by 180 events. The robustness of the analysis has been tested by considering the magnitude completeness correction term of 0.2 to Mc 3.0 as Mc 3.2 and we have tested the error in the calculus of Dq for each magnitude threshold. On the other hand, the stability of the analysis has been investigated down to the minimum magnitude of Mw ≥ 2 . 6 in the sequence. The analysis shows the multi-fractal dimension spectrum Dq decreases with increasing of clustering of events with time before a moderate magnitude earthquake in the sequence, which alternatively accounts for non-randomness in the spatial distribution of epicenters and its self-organized criticality. Similar behavior is ubiquitous elsewhere around the globe, and warns for proximity of a damaging seismic event in an area. OS: Please confirm math roman or italics in abs.

Conceptualizing ¬the Abstractions of Earthquakes Through an Instructional Sequence Using SeisMac and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taber, J.; Hubenthal, M.; Wysession, M.

2007-12-01

Newsworthy earthquakes provide an engaging hook for students in Earth science classes, particularly when discussing their effects on people and the landscape. However, engaging students in an analysis of earthquakes that extends beyond death and damage, is frequently hampered by the abstraction of recorded ground motion data in the form of raw seismograms and the inability of most students to personally relate to ground accelerations. To overcome these challenges, an educational sequence has been developed using two software tools: SeisMac by Daniel Griscom, and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer (REV) developed by the University of South Carolina in collaboration with IRIS and DLESE. This sequence presents a unique opportunity for Earth Science teachers to "create" foundational experiences for students as they construction a framework of understanding of abstract concepts. The first activity is designed to introduce the concept of a three-component seismogram and to directly address the very abstract nature of seismograms through a kinesthetic experience. Students first learn to take the pulse of their classroom through a guided exploration of SeisMac, which displays the output of the laptop's built-in Sudden Motion Sensor (a 3-component accelerometer). This exploration allows students to view a 3-component seismogram as they move or tap the laptop and encourages them to propose and carry out experiments to explain the meaning of the 3-component seismogram. Once completed students are then asked to apply this new knowledge to a real 3-component seismogram printed from REV. Next the activity guides students through the process of identifying P and S waves and using SeisMac to connect the physical motion of the laptop to the "wiggles" they see on the SeisMac display and then comparing those to the "wiggles" they see on their seismogram. At this point students are more fully prepared to engage in an S-P location exercise such as those included in many state standards

Transient stress-coupling between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterlark, Timothy; Wang, H.F.

2002-01-01

A three-dimensional finite-element model (FEM) of the Mojave block region in southern California is constructed to investigate transient stress-coupling between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes. The FEM simulates a poroelastic upper-crust layer coupled to a viscoelastic lower-crust layer, which is decoupled from the upper mantle. FEM predictions of the transient mechanical behavior of the crust are constrained by global positioning system (GPS) data, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images, fluid-pressure data from water wells, and the dislocation source of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. Two time-dependent parameters, hydraulic diffusivity of the upper crust and viscosity of the lower crust, are calibrated to 10–2 m2·sec–1 and 5 × 1018 Pa·sec respectively. The hydraulic diffusivity is relatively insensitive to heterogeneous fault-zone permeability specifications and fluid-flow boundary conditions along the elastic free-surface at the top of the problem domain. The calibrated FEM is used to predict the evolution of Coulomb stress during the interval separating the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes. The predicted change in Coulomb stress near the hypocenter of the Hector Mine earthquake increases from 0.02 to 0.05 MPa during the 7-yr interval separating the two events. This increase is primarily attributed to the recovery of decreased excess fluid pressure from the 1992 Landers coseismic (undrained) strain field. Coulomb stress predictions are insensitive to small variations of fault-plane dip and hypocentral depth estimations of the Hector Mine rupture.

Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Blair, James Luke; Boatwright, John; Garcia, Susan H.; Harris, Ruth A.; Michael, Andrew J.; Schwartz, David P.; DiLeo, Jeanne S.; Jacques, Kate; Donlin, Carolyn

2016-06-13

Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.

Earthquake stress via event ratio levels: Application to the 2011 and 2016 Oklahoma seismic sequences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walter, William R.; Yoo, Seung -Hoon; Mayeda, Kevin

Here, we develop a new methodology for determining earthquake stress drop and apparent stress values via spectral ratio asymptotic levels. With sufficient bandwidth, the stress ratio for a pair of events can be directly related to these low- and high-frequency levels. This avoids the need to assume a particular spectral model and derive stress drop from cubed corner frequency measures. The method can be applied to spectral ratios for any pair of closely related earthquakes and is particularly well suited for coda envelope methods that provide good azimuthally averaged, point-source measures. We apply the new method to the 2011 Praguemore » and 2016 Pawnee earthquake sequences in Oklahoma. The sequences show stress scaling with size and depth, with the largest events having apparent stress levels near 1 MPa and smaller and/or shallower events having systematically lower stress values.« less

Earthquake stress via event ratio levels: Application to the 2011 and 2016 Oklahoma seismic sequences

DOE PAGES

Walter, William R.; Yoo, Seung -Hoon; Mayeda, Kevin; ...

2017-04-03

Here, we develop a new methodology for determining earthquake stress drop and apparent stress values via spectral ratio asymptotic levels. With sufficient bandwidth, the stress ratio for a pair of events can be directly related to these low- and high-frequency levels. This avoids the need to assume a particular spectral model and derive stress drop from cubed corner frequency measures. The method can be applied to spectral ratios for any pair of closely related earthquakes and is particularly well suited for coda envelope methods that provide good azimuthally averaged, point-source measures. We apply the new method to the 2011 Praguemore » and 2016 Pawnee earthquake sequences in Oklahoma. The sequences show stress scaling with size and depth, with the largest events having apparent stress levels near 1 MPa and smaller and/or shallower events having systematically lower stress values.« less

Instrumental intensity distribution for the Hector Mine, California, and the Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquakes: Comparison of two methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sokolov, V.; Wald, D.J.

2002-01-01

We compare two methods of seismic-intensity estimation from ground-motion records for the two recent strong earthquakes: the 1999 (M 7.1) Hector Mine, California, and the 1999 (M 7.6) Chi-Chi, Taiwan. The first technique utilizes the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and velocity (PGV), and it is used for rapid generation of the instrumental intensity map in California. The other method is based on the revised relationships between intensity and Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS). The results of using the methods are compared with independently observed data and between the estimations from the records. For the case of the Hector Mine earthquake, the calculated intensities in general agree with the observed values. For the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake, the areas of maximum calculated intensity correspond to the areas of the greatest damage and highest number of fatalities. However, the FAS method producees higher-intensity values than those of the peak amplitude method. The specific features of ground-motion excitation during the large, shallow, thrust earthquake may be considered a reason for the discrepancy. The use of PGA and PGV is simple; however, the use of FAS provides a natural consideration of site amplification by means of generalized or site-specific spectral ratios. Because the calculation of seismic-intensity maps requires rapid processing of data from a large network, it is very practical to generate a "first-order" map from the recorded peak motions. Then, a "second-order" map may be compiled using an amplitude-spectra method on the basis of available records and numerical modeling of the site-dependent spectra for the regions of sparse station spacing.

Coseismic fault slip associated with the 1992 M(sub w) 6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquake: Implications for the Joshua Tree-Landers earthquake sequence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bennett, Richard A.; Reilinger, Robert E.; Rodi, William; Li, Yingping; Toksoz, M. Nafi; Hudnut, Ken

1995-01-01

Coseismic surface deformation associated with the M(sub w) 6.1, April 23, 1992, Joshua Tree earthquake is well represented by estimates of geodetic monument displacements at 20 locations independently derived from Global Positioning System and trilateration measurements. The rms signal to noise ratio for these inferred displacements is 1.8 with near-fault displacement estimates exceeding 40 mm. In order to determine the long-wavelength distribution of slip over the plane of rupture, a Tikhonov regularization operator is applied to these estimates which minimizes stress variability subject to purely right-lateral slip and zero surface slip constraints. The resulting slip distribution yields a geodetic moment estimate of 1.7 x 10(exp 18) N m with corresponding maximum slip around 0.8 m and compares well with independent and complementary information including seismic moment and source time function estimates and main shock and aftershock locations. From empirical Green's functions analyses, a rupture duration of 5 s is obtained which implies a rupture radius of 6-8 km. Most of the inferred slip lies to the north of the hypocenter, consistent with northward rupture propagation. Stress drop estimates are in the range of 2-4 MPa. In addition, predicted Coulomb stress increases correlate remarkably well with the distribution of aftershock hypocenters; most of the aftershocks occur in areas for which the mainshock rupture produced stress increases larger than about 0.1 MPa. In contrast, predicted stress changes are near zero at the hypocenter of the M(sub w) 7.3, June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake which nucleated about 20 km beyond the northernmost edge of the Joshua Tree rupture. Based on aftershock migrations and the predicted static stress field, we speculate that redistribution of Joshua Tree-induced stress perturbations played a role in the spatio-temporal development of the earth sequence culminating in the Landers event.

Reply to “Comment on “Should Memphis build for California's earthquakes?” From A.D. Frankel”

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, Seth; Tomasello, Joseph; Newman, Andrew

Carl Sagan observed that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” In our view, A.D. Frankel's arguments (see accompanying Comment piece) do not reach the level required to demonstrate the counter-intuitive propositions that the earthquake hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is comparable to that in coastal California, and that buildings should be built to similar standards.This interchange is the latest in an ongoing debate beginning with Newman et al.'s [1999a] recommendation, based on analysis of Global Positioning System and earthquake data, that Frankel et al.'s [1996] estimate of California-level seismic hazard for the NMSZ should be reduced. Most points at issue, except for those related to the costs and benefits of the proposed new International Building Code 2000, have already been argued at length by both sides in the literature [e.g.,Schweig et al., 1999; Newman et al., 1999b, 2001; Cramer, 2001]. Hence,rather than rehash these points, we will try here to provide readers not enmeshed in this morass with an overview of the primary differences between our view and that of Frankel.

When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ogata, Y.; Jones, L.M.; Toda, S.

2003-01-01

Seismic quiescence has attracted attention as a possible precursor to a large earthquake. However, sensitive detection of quiescence requires accurate modeling of normal aftershock activity. We apply the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model that is a natural extension of the modified Omori formula for aftershock decay, allowing further clusters (secondary aftershocks) within an aftershock sequence. The Hector Mine aftershock activity has been normal, relative to the decay predicted by the ETAS model during the 14 months of available data. In contrast, although the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Landers earthquake (M = 7.3), including the 1992 Big Bear earthquake (M = 6.4) and its aftershocks, fits very well to the ETAS up until about 6 months after the main shock, the activity showed clear lowering relative to the modeled rate (relative quiescence) and lasted nearly 7 years, leading up to the Hector Mine earthquake (M = 7.1) in 1999. Specifically, the relative quiescence occurred only in the shallow aftershock activity, down to depths of 5-6 km. The sequence of deeper events showed clear, normal aftershock activity well fitted to the ETAS throughout the whole period. We argue several physical explanations for these results. Among them, we strongly suspect aseismic slips within the Hector Mine rupture source that could inhibit the crustal relaxation process within "shadow zones" of the Coulomb's failure stress change. Furthermore, the aftershock activity of the 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake (M = 6.1) sharply lowered in the same day of the main shock, which can be explained by a similar scenario.

Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.

PubMed

Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L

2015-04-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

Earthquakes, November-December 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1993-01-01

There were two major earthquakes (7.0≤M<8.0) during the last two months of the year, a magntidue 7.5 earthquake on December 12 in the Flores region, Indonesia, and a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on December 20 in the Banda Sea. Earthquakes caused fatalities in China and Indonesia. The greatest number of deaths (2,500) for the year occurred in Indonesia. In Switzerland, six people were killed by an accidental explosion recoreded by seismographs. In teh United States, a magnitude 5.3 earthquake caused slight damage at Big Bear in southern California. 

Liquefaction and other ground failures in Imperial County, California, from the April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCrink, Timothy P.; Pridmore, Cynthia L.; Tinsley, John C.; Sickler, Robert R.; Brandenberg, Scott J.; Stewart, Jonathan P.

2011-01-01

The Colorado River Delta region of southern Imperial Valley, California, and Mexicali Valley, Baja California, is a tectonically dynamic area characterized by numerous active faults and frequent large seismic events. Significant earthquakes that have been accompanied by surface fault rupture and/or soil liquefaction occurred in this region in 1892 (M7.1), 1915 (M6.3; M7.1), 1930 (M5.7), 1940 (M6.9), 1950 (M5.4), 1957 (M5.2), 1968 (6.5), 1979 (6.4), 1980 (M6.1), 1981 (M5.8), and 1987 (M6.2; M6.8). Following this trend, the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake of April 4, 2010, ruptured approximately 120 kilometers along several known faults in Baja California. Liquefaction caused by the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake was widespread throughout the southern Imperial Valley but concentrated in the southwest corner of the valley, southwest of the city centers of Calexico and El Centro where ground motions were highest. Although there are few strong motion recordings in the very western part of the area, the recordings that do exist indicate that ground motions were on the order of 0.3 to 0.6g where the majority of liquefaction occurrences were found. More distant liquefaction occurrences, at Fites Road southwest of Brawley and along Rosita Canal northwest of Holtville were triggered where ground motions were about 0.2 g. Damage to roads was associated mainly with liquefaction of sandy river deposits beneath bridge approach fills, and in some cases liquefaction within the fills. Liquefaction damage to canal and drain levees was not always accompanied by vented sand, but the nature of the damage leads the authors to infer that liquefaction was involved in the majority of observed cases. Liquefaction-related damage to several public facilities - Calexico Waste Water Treatment Plant, Fig Lagoon levee system, and Sunbeam Lake Dam in particular - appears to be extensive. The cost to repair these facilities to prevent future liquefaction damage will likely be prohibitive. As

Water-level changes induced by local and distant earthquakes at Long Valley caldera, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Sneed, Michelle; Galloway, Devin L.; Sorey, Michael L.; Farrar, Christopher D.; Howle, James F.; Hughes, J.

2003-01-01

Distant as well as local earthquakes have induced groundwater-level changes persisting for days to weeks at Long Valley caldera, California. Four wells open to formations as deep as 300 m have responded to 16 earthquakes, and responses to two earthquakes in the 3-km-deep Long Valley Exploratory Well (LVEW) show that these changes are not limited to weathered or unconsolidated near-surface rocks. All five wells exhibit water-level variations in response to earth tides, indicating they can be used as low-resolution strainmeters. Earthquakes induce gradual water-level changes that increase in amplitude for as long as 30 days, then return more slowly to pre-earthquake levels. The gradual water-level changes are always drops at wells LKT, LVEW, and CH-10B, and always rises at well CW-3. At a dilatometer just outside the caldera, earthquake-induced strain responses consist of either a step followed by a contractional strain-rate increase, or a transient contractional signal that reaches a maximum in about seven days and then returns toward the pre-earthquake value. The sizes of the gradual water-level changes generally increase with earthquake magnitude and decrease with hypocentral distance. Local earthquakes in Long Valley produce coseismic water-level steps; otherwise the responses to local earthquakes and distant earthquakes are indistinguishable. In particular, water-level and strain changes in Long Valley following the 1992 M7.3 Landers earthquake, 450 km distant, closely resemble those initiated by a M4.9 local earthquake on November 22, 1997, during a seismic swarm with features indicative of fluid involvement. At the LKT well, many of the response time histories are identical for 20 days after each earthquake, and can be matched by a theoretical solution giving the pore pressure as a function of time due to diffusion of a nearby, instantaneous, pressure drop. Such pressure drops could be produced by accelerated inflation of the resurgent dome by amounts too

Analysis of Earthquake Source Spectra in Salton Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.

2009-12-01

Previous studies of the source spectra of small earthquakes in southern California show that average Brune-type stress drops vary among different regions, with particularly low stress drops observed in the Salton Trough (Shearer et al., 2006). The Salton Trough marks the southern end of the San Andreas Fault and is prone to earthquake swarms, some of which are driven by aseismic creep events (Lohman and McGuire, 2007). In order to learn the stress state and understand the physical mechanisms of swarms and slow slip events, we analyze the source spectra of earthquakes in this region. We obtain Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) waveforms for earthquakes from 1977 to 2009 archived at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) data center, which includes over 17,000 events. After resampling the data to a uniform 100 Hz sample rate, we compute spectra for both signal and noise windows for each seismogram, and select traces with a P-wave signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5 between 5 Hz and 15 Hz. Using selected displacement spectra, we isolate the source spectra from station terms and path effects using an empirical Green’s function approach. From the corrected source spectra, we compute corner frequencies and estimate moments and stress drops. Finally we analyze spatial and temporal variations in stress drop in the Salton Trough and compare them with studies of swarms and creep events to assess the evolution of faulting and stress in the region. References: Lohman, R. B., and J. J. McGuire (2007), Earthquake swarms driven by aseismic creep in the Salton Trough, California, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B04405, doi:10.1029/2006JB004596 Shearer, P. M., G. A. Prieto, and E. Hauksson (2006), Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06303, doi:10.1029/2005JB003979.

The California Integrated Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellweg, M.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Neuhauser, D.; Oppenheimer, D.; Shakal, A.

2007-05-01

The mission of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is to operate a reliable, modern system to monitor earthquakes throughout the state; to generate and distribute information in real-time for emergency response, for the benefit of public safety, and for loss mitigation; and to collect and archive data for seismological and earthquake engineering research. To meet these needs, the CISN operates data processing and archiving centers, as well as more than 3000 seismic stations. Furthermore, the CISN is actively developing and enhancing its infrastructure, including its automated processing and archival systems. The CISN integrates seismic and strong motion networks operated by the University of California Berkeley (UCB), the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) offices in Menlo Park and Pasadena, as well as the USGS National Strong Motion Program (NSMP), and the California Geological Survey (CGS). The CISN operates two earthquake management centers (the NCEMC and SCEMC) where statewide, real-time earthquake monitoring takes place, and an engineering data center (EDC) for processing strong motion data and making it available in near real-time to the engineering community. These centers employ redundant hardware to minimize disruptions to the earthquake detection and processing systems. At the same time, dual feeds of data from a subset of broadband and strong motion stations are telemetered in real- time directly to both the NCEMC and the SCEMC to ensure the availability of statewide data in the event of a catastrophic failure at one of these two centers. The CISN uses a backbone T1 ring (with automatic backup over the internet) to interconnect the centers and the California Office of Emergency Services. The T1 ring enables real-time exchange of selected waveforms, derived ground motion data, phase arrivals, earthquake parameters, and ShakeMaps. With the goal of operating similar and redundant

Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.

2013-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

GPS measurements of strain accumulation across the Imperial Valley, California: 1986-1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larsen, Shawn; Reilinger, Robert

1989-01-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected in southern California from 1986 to 1989 indicate considerable strain accumulation across the Imperial Valley. Displacements are computed at 29 stations in and near the valley from 1986 to 1988, and at 11 sites from 1988 to 1989. The earlier measurements indicate 5.9 +/- 1.0 cm/yr right-lateral differential velocity across the valley, although the data are heavily influenced by the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake sequence. Some measurements, especially the east-trending displacements, are suspects for large errors. The 1988 to 1989 GPS displacements are best modeled by 5.2 +/- 0.9 cm/yr of valley crossing deformation, but rates calculated from conventional geodetic measurements (3.4 to 4.3 cm/yr) fit the data nearly as well. There is evidence from GPS and Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) observations that the present slip rate along the southern San Andreas fault is smaller than the long-term geologic estimate, suggesting a lower earthquake potential than is currently assumed. Correspondingly, a higher earthquake potential is indicated for the San Jacinto fault. The Imperial Valley GPS sites form part of a 183 station network in southern California and northern Baja California, which spans a cross-section of the North American-Pacific plate boundary.

Map showing surface ruptures associated with the Mammoth Lakes, California, earthquakes of May 1980

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.M.; Yount, J.C.; Vaughn, P.R.; Zepeda, R.L.

1982-01-01

This map shows surface ruptures associated with the M 6 Mammoth Lakes earthquakes of May 25-27, 1980 (Sherburne, 1980). The ruptures were mapped during USGS field investigations May 28 to June 4 and July 14-19, 1980. The map also includes some of the ruptures recorded by California Division of Mines and Geology investigators May 26-31, June 26-27, and July 7-11, 1980 (Taylor and Bryant, 1980). Because most of the surface ruptures developed in either unconsolidated pumice, alluvium, or till (and many were on slopes of scarps created by earlier faulting), wind, rain and animals quickly erased many of the ruptures. In places, the minimum detectable slip was 3-10 mm. Thus the lines on the map do not record all of the ruptures that formed at the time of the earthquake. Many of the areas were we show gaps between lines on the map probably had cracks originally. 

Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

PubMed

McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

2005-03-24

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

Earthquake Education in Prime Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Groot, R.; Abbott, P.; Benthien, M.

2004-12-01

Since 2001, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has collaborated on several video production projects that feature important topics related to earthquake science, engineering, and preparedness. These projects have also fostered many fruitful and sustained partnerships with a variety of organizations that have a stake in hazard education and preparedness. The Seismic Sleuths educational video first appeared in the spring season 2001 on Discovery Channel's Assignment Discovery. Seismic Sleuths is based on a highly successful curriculum package developed jointly by the American Geophysical Union and The Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety supported the video project. Summer Productions, a company with a reputation for quality science programming, produced the Seismic Sleuths program in close partnership with scientists, engineers, and preparedness experts. The program has aired on the National Geographic Channel as recently as Fall 2004. Currently, SCEC is collaborating with Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University (SDSU) on the video project Written In Stone: Earthquake Country - Los Angeles. Partners on this project include the California Seismic Safety Commission, SDSU, SCEC, CEA, and the Insurance Information Network of California. This video incorporates live-action demonstrations, vivid animations, and a compelling host (Abbott) to tell the story about earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The Written in Stone team has also developed a comprehensive educator package that includes the video, maps, lesson plans, and other supporting materials. We will present the process that facilitates the creation of visually effective, factually accurate, and entertaining video programs. We acknowledge the need to have a broad understanding of the literature related to communication, media studies, science education, and

The Non-Regularity of Earthquake Recurrence in California: Lessons From Long Paleoseismic Records in Simple vs Complex Fault Regions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rockwell, T. K.

2010-12-01

A long paleoseismic record at Hog Lake on the central San Jacinto fault (SJF) in southern California documents evidence for 18 surface ruptures in the past 3.8-4 ka. This yields a long-term recurrence interval of about 210 years, consistent with its slip rate of ~16 mm/yr and field observations of 3-4 m of displacement per event. However, during the past 3800 years, the fault has switched from a quasi-periodic mode of earthquake production, during which the recurrence interval is similar to the long-term average, to clustered behavior with the inter-event periods as short as a few decades. There are also some periods as long as 450 years during which there were no surface ruptures, and these periods are commonly followed by one to several closely-timed ruptures. The coefficient of variation (CV) for the timing of these earthquakes is about 0.6 for the past 4000 years (17 intervals). Similar behavior has been observed on the San Andreas Fault (SAF) south of the Transverse Ranges where clusters of earthquakes have been followed by periods of lower seismic production, and the CV is as high as 0.7 for some portions of the fault. In contrast, the central North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in Turkey, which ruptured in 1944, appears to have produced ruptures with similar displacement at fairly regular intervals for the past 1600 years. With a CV of 0.16 for timing, and close to 0.1 for displacement, the 1944 rupture segment near Gerede appears to have been both periodic and characteristic. The SJF and SAF are part of a broad plate boundary system with multiple parallel strands with significant slip rates. Additional faults lay to the east (Eastern California shear zone) and west (faults of the LA basin and southern California Borderland), which makes the southern SAF system a complex and broad plate boundary zone. In comparison, the 1944 rupture section of the NAF is simple, straight and highly localized, which contrasts with the complex system of parallel faults in southern

Comparative Study of Earthquake Clustering in Relation to Hydraulic Activities at Geothermal Fields in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Garzón, P.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Kwiatek, G.; Bohnhoff, M.

2017-12-01

We investigate earthquake clustering properties from three geothermal reservoirs to clarify how earthquake patterns respond to hydraulic activities. We process ≈ 9 years from four datasets corresponding to the Geysers (both the entire field and a local subset), Coso and Salton Sea geothermal fields, California. For each, the completeness magnitude, b-value and fractal dimension are calculated and used to identify seismicity clusters using the nearest-neighbor approach of Zaliapin and Ben-Zion [2013a, 2013b]. Estimations of temporal evolution of different clustering properties in relation to hydraulic parameters point to different responses of earthquake dynamics to hydraulic operations in each case study. The clustering at the Geysers at local scale and Salton Sea are most and least affected by hydraulic activities, respectively. The response of the earthquake clustering from different datasets to the hydraulic activities may reflect the regional seismo-tectonic complexity as well as the dimension of the geothermal activities performed (e.g. number of active wells and superposition of injection + production activities).Two clustering properties significantly respond to hydraulic changes across all datasets: the background rates and the proportion of clusters consisting of a single event. Background rates are larger at the Geysers and Coso during high injection-production periods, while the opposite holds for the Salton Sea. This possibly reflects the different physical mechanisms controlling seismicity at each geothermal field. Additionally, a lower proportion of singles is found during time periods with higher injection-production rates. This may reflect decreasing effective stress in areas subjected to higher pore pressure and larger earthquake triggering by stress transfer.

The Impressive 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquake Sequence and the Geologic Record of at Least Two Other Sequences in the Last 1000 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, R. A.

2011-12-01

The currently active New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) was the source of a series of major earthquakes and hundreds of aftershocks that began on December 16, 1811 and continued through 1812. At the time, the region was sparsely populated but today it is home to about 12 million people. Four earthquakes in this 1811-1812 sequence had magnitudes (M) from about 6.8-8.0 and were felt widely across the eastern U.S. as far as the Atlantic seaboard 1,700 km away. About a dozen aftershocks in the M5.0-6.3 range were also felt widely across the eastern U.S. The first earthquake occurred December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m. followed by the largest aftershock in the sequence (M6.8-7.0) at about 7:15 a.m.; the second main shock at 9 a.m. on January 23, 1812; and the third main shock on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These four principle shocks were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. Because of low seismic attenuation in the eastern U.S., the area of strong shaking of the December 16 main shock was about 10 times larger than that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. The NMSZ produced large earthquakes in the M6.0-6.6 range in 1843 and 1895 and currently generates about 150 earthquakes annually in the M1.5-4 range. Though no instrumental data for the 1811-1812 earthquakes exist, first-hand accounts indicate that the mainshocks were followed by hundreds of aftershocks that lasted for months. They caused general alarm from Detroit (800 km) to New Orleans (700 km). In the epicentral region, Memphis, Tenn. was not yet established, but many homes were damaged in the 5500-inhabitant town of St. Louis, Mo. (250 km). The frontier trading towns of Little Prairie (now Caruthersville) and New Madrid, Mo., were severely damaged and temporarily evacuated. The 1811-1812 sequence left its mark on the landscape that endures today. During the earthquake, witnesses reported that the ground rose, fell, and cracked, and that trees snapped. Large landslides were

Characterization of the 2015 M4.0 Venus, Texas, Earthquake Sequence Using Locally Recorded Seismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scales, M. M.; DeShon, H. R.; Hayward, C.; Magnani, M. B.; Walter, J. I.; Pratt, T. L.

2015-12-01

We present high-resolution relative earthquake relocations derived using differential time data from waveform cross-correlation and first motion fault plane solutions to characterize the 2015 M4.0 Venus, TX, earthquake sequence. On 7 May 2015, a M4.0 earthquake occurred in Johnson County, TX, south of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. It is the largest event recorded to date in the Fort Worth (Barnett Shale) Basin, which is an active shale gas production area that has been associated with induced earthquakes. The USGS moment tensor indicated normal faulting along NE-SW trending faults and two additional felt aftershocks were reported in the National Earthquake Information Center catalog. Beginning on 11 May 2015, a temporary seismic network was deployed. Over the first week, SMU deployed 13 vertical-component RT125s and 3 USGS NetQuakes instruments. The RT125s were replaced with 7 short-period 3-component instruments provided by IRIS and 4 broadband stations deployed throughout Johnson County by the University of Texas. To date, we have located over 100 events that define a 5 km long normal fault striking 35°NE and dipping ~70°. Events occur in the Precambrian granitic basement at depths of 4-6km. These locations are near the bottom of the Ellenburger Group (~3.5km in depth), which is an Ordovician carbonate platform overlying the basement and is often used for wastewater disposal. Five large volume injection wells operate within 10km of the earthquake sequence and inject very near, if not through, the Ellenburger-basement contact. These wells were temporarily shut down by the Texas Railroad Commission for testing but were reported at the time to have no causal effect on the earthquake activity. We explore temporal and spatial correlations between seismicity, wastewater injection data and subsurface fault data to better understand the cause of the Venus sequence.

Ring-Shaped Seismicity Structures in Southern California: Possible Preparation for Large Earthquake in the Los Angeles Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopnichev, Yu. F.; Sokolova, I. N.

2017-12-01

Some characteristics of seismicity in Southern California are studied. It is found that ring-shaped seismicity structures with threshold magnitudes M th of 4.1, 4.1, and 3.8 formed prior to three large ( M w > 7.0) earthquakes in 1992, 1999, and 2010, respectively. The sizes of these structures are several times smaller than for intracontinental strike-slip events with similar magnitudes. Two ring-shaped structures are identified in areas east of the city of Los Angeles, where relatively large earthquakes have not occurred for at least 150 years. The magnitudes of large events which can occur in the areas of these structures are estimated on the basis of the previously obtained correlation dependence of ring sizes on magnitudes of the strike-slip earthquakes. Large events with magnitudes of M w = 6.9 ± 0.2 and M w = 8.6 ± 0.2 can occur in the area to the east of the city of Los Angeles and in the rupture zone of the 1857 great Fort Tejon earthquake, respectively. We believe that ring-structure formation, similarly to the other regions, is connected with deep-seated fluid migration.

Simulation of rockfalls triggered by earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kobayashi, Y.; Harp, E.L.; Kagawa, T.

1990-01-01

A computer program to simulate the downslope movement of boulders in rolling or bouncing modes has been developed and applied to actual rockfalls triggered by the Mammoth Lakes, California, earthquake sequence in 1980 and the Central Idaho earthquake in 1983. In order to reproduce a movement mode where bouncing predominated, we introduced an artificial unevenness to the slope surface by adding a small random number to the interpolated value of the mid-points between the adjacent surveyed points. Three hundred simulations were computed for each site by changing the random number series, which determined distances and bouncing intervals. The movement of the boulders was, in general, rather erratic depending on the random numbers employed, and the results could not be seen as deterministic but stochastic. The closest agreement between calculated and actual movements was obtained at the site with the most detailed and accurate topographic measurements. ?? 1990 Springer-Verlag.

Earthquake watch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, M.

1976-01-01

 When the time comes that earthquakes can be predicted accurately, what shall we do with the knowledge? This was the theme of a November 1975 conference on earthquake warning and response held in San Francisco called by Assistant Secretary of the Interior Jack W. Carlson. Invited were officials of State and local governments from Alaska, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, utah, Washington, and Wyoming and representatives of the news media. 

Monitoring reservoir response to earthquakes and fluid extraction, Salton Sea geothermal field, California

PubMed Central

Taira, Taka’aki; Nayak, Avinash; Brenguier, Florent; Manga, Michael

2018-01-01

Continuous monitoring of in situ reservoir responses to stress transients provides insights into the evolution of geothermal reservoirs. By exploiting the stress dependence of seismic velocity changes, we investigate the temporal evolution of the reservoir stress state of the Salton Sea geothermal field (SSGF), California. We find that the SSGF experienced a number of sudden velocity reductions (~0.035 to 0.25%) that are most likely caused by openings of fractures due to dynamic stress transients (as small as 0.08 MPa and up to 0.45 MPa) from local and regional earthquakes. Depths of velocity changes are estimated to be about 0.5 to 1.5 km, similar to the depths of the injection and production wells. We derive an empirical in situ stress sensitivity of seismic velocity changes by relating velocity changes to dynamic stresses. We also observe systematic velocity reductions (0.04 to 0.05%) during earthquake swarms in mid-November 2009 and late-December 2010. On the basis of volumetric static and dynamic stress changes, the expected velocity reductions from the largest earthquakes with magnitude ranging from 3 to 4 in these swarms are less than 0.02%, which suggests that these earthquakes are likely not responsible for the velocity changes observed during the swarms. Instead, we argue that velocity reductions may have been induced by poroelastic opening of fractures due to aseismic deformation. We also observe a long-term velocity increase (~0.04%/year) that is most likely due to poroelastic contraction caused by the geothermal production. Our observations demonstrate that seismic interferometry provides insights into in situ reservoir response to stress changes. PMID:29326977

Monitoring reservoir response to earthquakes and fluid extraction, Salton Sea geothermal field, California.

PubMed

Taira, Taka'aki; Nayak, Avinash; Brenguier, Florent; Manga, Michael

2018-01-01

Continuous monitoring of in situ reservoir responses to stress transients provides insights into the evolution of geothermal reservoirs. By exploiting the stress dependence of seismic velocity changes, we investigate the temporal evolution of the reservoir stress state of the Salton Sea geothermal field (SSGF), California. We find that the SSGF experienced a number of sudden velocity reductions (~0.035 to 0.25%) that are most likely caused by openings of fractures due to dynamic stress transients (as small as 0.08 MPa and up to 0.45 MPa) from local and regional earthquakes. Depths of velocity changes are estimated to be about 0.5 to 1.5 km, similar to the depths of the injection and production wells. We derive an empirical in situ stress sensitivity of seismic velocity changes by relating velocity changes to dynamic stresses. We also observe systematic velocity reductions (0.04 to 0.05%) during earthquake swarms in mid-November 2009 and late-December 2010. On the basis of volumetric static and dynamic stress changes, the expected velocity reductions from the largest earthquakes with magnitude ranging from 3 to 4 in these swarms are less than 0.02%, which suggests that these earthquakes are likely not responsible for the velocity changes observed during the swarms. Instead, we argue that velocity reductions may have been induced by poroelastic opening of fractures due to aseismic deformation. We also observe a long-term velocity increase (~0.04%/year) that is most likely due to poroelastic contraction caused by the geothermal production. Our observations demonstrate that seismic interferometry provides insights into in situ reservoir response to stress changes.

Earthquakes, July-August 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1992-01-01

There were two major earthquakes (7.0≤M<8.0) during this reporting period. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred in Kyrgyzstan on August 19 and a magnitude 7.0 quake struck the Ascension Island region on August 28. In southern California, aftershocks of the magnitude 7.6 earthquake on June 28, 1992, continued. One of these aftershocks caused damage and injuries, and at least one other aftershock caused additional damage. Earthquake-related fatalities were reportred in Kyrgzstan and Pakistan. 

Slip triggered on southern California faults by the 1992 Joshua Tree, Landers, and big bear earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodin, Paul; Bilham, Roger; Behr, Jeff; Gomberg, Joan; Hudnut, Kenneth W.

1994-01-01

Five out of six functioning creepmeters on southern California faults recorded slip triggered at the time of some or all of the three largest events of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence. Digital creep data indicate that dextral slip was triggered within 1 min of each mainshock and that maximum slip velocities occurred 2 to 3 min later. The duration of triggered slip events ranged from a few hours to several weeks. We note that triggered slip occurs commonly on faults that exhibit fault creep. To account for the observation that slip can be triggered repeatedly on a fault, we propose that the amplitude of triggered slip may be proportional to the depth of slip in the creep event and to the available near-surface tectonic strain that would otherwise eventually be released as fault creep. We advance the notion that seismic surface waves, perhaps amplified by sediments, generate transient local conditions that favor the release of tectonic strain to varying depths. Synthetic strain seismograms are presented that suggest increased pore pressure during periods of fault-normal contraction may be responsible for triggered slip, since maximum dextral shear strain transients correspond to times of maximum fault-normal contraction.

The smart cluster method. Adaptive earthquake cluster identification and analysis in strong seismic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, Andreas M.; Daniell, James E.; Wenzel, Friedemann

2017-07-01

Earthquake clustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. This study introduces the Smart Cluster Method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal cluster identification. It utilises the magnitude-dependent spatio-temporal earthquake density to adjust the search properties, subsequently analyses the identified clusters to determine directional variation and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010-2011 Darfield-Christchurch sequence, a reclassification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures using near-field searches, nearest neighbour classification and temporal splitting. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It has been tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. A total of more than 1500 clusters have been found in both regions since 1980 with M m i n = 2.0. Utilising the knowledge of cluster classification, the method has been adjusted to provide an earthquake declustering algorithm, which has been compared to existing methods. Its performance is comparable to established methodologies. The analysis of earthquake clustering statistics lead to various new and updated correlation functions, e.g. for ratios between mainshock and strongest aftershock and general aftershock activity metrics.

Analysis of Earthquake Recordings Obtained from the Seafloor Earthquake Measurement System (SEMS) Instruments Deployed off the Coast of Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boore, D.M.; Smith, C.E.

1999-01-01

For more than 20 years, a program has been underway to obtain records of earthquake shaking on the seafloor at sites offshore of southern California, near oil platforms. The primary goal of the program is to obtain data that can help determine if ground motions at offshore sites are significantly different than those at onshore sites; if so, caution may be necessary in using onshore motions as the basis for the seismic design of oil platforms. We analyze data from eight earthquakes recorded at six offshore sites; these are the most important data recorded on these stations to date. Seven of the earthquakes were recorded at only one offshore station; the eighth event was recorded at two sites. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 4.7 to 6.1. Because of the scarcity of multiple recordings from any one event, most of the analysis is based on the ratio of spectra from vertical and horizontal components of motion. The results clearly show that the offshore motions have very low vertical motions compared to those from an average onshore site, particularly at short periods. Theoretical calculations find that the water layer has little effect on the horizontal components of motion but that it produces a strong spectral null on the vertical component at the resonant frequency of P waves in the water layer. The vertical-to-horizontal ratios for a few selected onshore sites underlain by relatively low shear-wave velocities are similar to the ratios from offshore sites for frequencies less than about one-half the water layer P-wave resonant frequency, suggesting that the shear-wave velocities beneath a site are more important than the water layer in determining the character of the ground motions at lower frequencies.

Relocation of the 2012 Ms 7.0 Lushan Earthquake Aftershock Sequences and Its Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, L.; Wu, J.; Sun, Z.; Su, J.; Du, W.

2013-12-01

At 08:02 am on 20 April 2013 (Beijing time), an Ms 7.0 earthquake occurred in Lushan County, Sichuan Province. Lushan earthquake is another devastating earthquake occurred in Sichuan Province after 12 May 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. 193 people were killed, 25 people were missing and more than ten thousand people were injured in the earthquake. Direct economic losses were estimated to be more than 80 billion yuan (RMB). Lushan earthquake occurred in the southern part of the Longmenshan fault zone. The distance between the epicenters of Lushan earthquake and Wenchuan earthquake is about 87 km. In an effort to maximize observations of the aftershock sequence and study the seismotetonic model, we deployed 35 temporal seismic stations around the source area. The earthquake was followed by a productive aftershock sequence. By the end of 20 July more than 10,254 aftershocks were recorded by the temporal seismic network. The magnitude of the aftershock ranges from ML-0.5 to ML5.6. We first located the aftershocks using Hypo2000 (Kevin, 2000) and refined the location results with HYPODD (Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000). The 1-D velocity model used in relocation is modified from a deep seismic sounding profile near Lushan earthquake (Wang et al., 2007). The Vp/Vs ratio is set to 1.83 according to receiver function h-k study. A total of 8,129 events were relocated. The average location error in N-S, E-W and U-D direction is 0.30, 0.29 and 0.59 km, respectively. The relocation results show that the aftershocks spread approximately 35 km in length and 16 km in width. The dominant distribution of the focal depth ranges from 10 to 20 km. A few earthquakes occurred in the shallow crust. Focal depth sections crossing the source area show that the seismogenic fault dips to the northwest, manifested itself as a listric thrust fault. The dip angle of the seismogenic fault is approximately 63° in the shallow crust, about 41° near the source of the mainshock, and about 17° at the

20 cool facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone-Commemorating the bicentennial of the New Madrid earthquake sequence, December 1811-February 1812 [poster

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, R.A.; McCallister, N.S.; Dart, R.L.

2011-01-01

This poster summarizes a few of the more significant facts about the series of large earthquakes that struck the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky from December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes in this sequence had a magnitude (M) of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred on December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second on January 23, 1812, at 9 a.m.; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The mainshocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that occurred over the next decade. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. Geologic studies show that the 1811-1812 sequence was not an isolated event in the New Madrid region. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence was preceded by at least two other similar sequences in about A.D. 1450 and A.D. 900. Research also indicates that other large earthquakes have occurred in the region surrounding the main New Madrid seismicity trends in the past 5,000 years or so.

Foreshocks and delayed triggering of the 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa earthquake and dynamic reinvigoration of its aftershock sequence by the MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren-Smith, Emily; Fry, Bill; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Chamberlain, Calum J.

2018-01-01

We analyze the preparatory period of the September 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa foreshock-mainshock sequence in the Northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, and subsequent reinvigoration of Te Araroa aftershocks driven by a large distant earthquake (the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake). By adopting a matched-filter detection workflow using 582 well-defined template events, we generate an improved foreshock and aftershock catalog for the Te Araroa sequence (>8,000 earthquakes over 66 d). Templates characteristic of the MW7.1 sequence (including the mainshock template) detect several highly correlating events (ML2.5-3.5) starting 12 min after a MW5.7 foreshock. These pre-cursory events occurred within ∼1 km of the mainshock and migrate bilaterally, suggesting precursory slip was triggered by the foreshock on the MW7.1 fault patch prior to mainshock failure. We extend our matched-filter routine to examine the interactions between high dynamic stresses resulting from passing surface waves of the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, and the evolution of the Te Araroa aftershock sequence. We observe a sudden spike in moment release of the aftershock sequence immediately following peak dynamic Coulomb stresses of 50-150 kPa on the MW7.1 fault plane. The triggered increase in moment release culminated in a MW5.1 event, immediately followed by a ∼3 h temporal stress shadow. Our observations document the preparatory period of a major subduction margin earthquake following a significant foreshock, and quantify dynamic reinvigoration of a distant on-going major aftershock sequence amid a period of temporal clustering of seismic activity in New Zealand.

The 2008 Wells, Nevada Earthquake Sequence: Application of Subspace Detection and Multiple Event Relocation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nealy, J. L.; Benz, H.; Hayes, G. P.; Bergman, E.; Barnhart, W. D.

2016-12-01

On February 21, 2008 at 14:16:02 (UTC), Wells, Nevada experienced a Mw 6.0 earthquake, the largest earthquake in the state within the past 50 years. Here, we re-analyze in detail the spatiotemporal variations of the foreshock and aftershock sequence and compare the distribution of seismicity to a recent slip model based on inversion of InSAR observations. A catalog of earthquakes for the time period of February 1, 2008 through August 31, 2008 was derived from a combination of arrival time picks using a kurtosis detector (primarily P arrival times), subspace detector (primarily S arrival times), associating the combined pick dataset, and applying multiple event relocation techniques using the 19 closest USArray Transportable Array stations, permanent regional seismic monitoring stations in Nevada and Utah, and temporary stations deployed for an aftershock study. We were able to detect several thousand earthquakes in the months following the mainshock as well as several foreshocks in the days leading up to the event. We reviewed the picks for the largest 986 earthquakes and relocated them using the Hypocentroidal Decomposition (HD) method. The HD technique provides both relative locations for the individual earthquakes and an absolute location for the earthquake cluster, resulting in absolute locations of the events in the cluster having minimal bias from unknown Earth structure. A subset of these "calibrated" earthquake locations that spanned the duration of the sequence and had small uncertainties in location were used as prior constraints within a second relocation effort using the entire dataset and the Bayesloc approach. Accurate locations (to within 2 km) were obtained using Bayesloc for 1,952 of the 2,157 events associated over the seven-month period of the study. The final catalog of earthquake hypocenters indicates that the aftershocks extend for about 20 km along the strike of the ruptured fault. The aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the

Current Development at the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appel, V. L.; Clayton, R. W.

2005-12-01

Over the past year, the SCEDC completed or is near completion of three featured projects: Station Information System (SIS) Development: The SIS will provide users with an interface into complete and accurate station metadata for all current and historic data at the SCEDC. The goal of this project is to develop a system that can interact with a single database source to enter, update and retrieve station metadata easily and efficiently. The system will provide accurate station/channel information for active stations to the SCSN real-time processing system, as will as station/channel information for stations that have parametric data at the SCEDC i.e., for users retrieving data via STP. Additionally, the SIS will supply information required to generate dataless SEED and COSMOS V0 volumes and allow stations to be added to the system with a minimum, but incomplete set of information using predefined defaults that can be easily updated as more information becomes available. Finally, the system will facilitate statewide metadata exchange for both real-time processing and provide a common approach to CISN historic station metadata. Moment Tensor Solutions: The SCEDC is currently archiving and delivering Moment Magnitudes and Moment Tensor Solutions (MTS) produced by the SCSN in real-time and post-processing solutions for events spanning back to 1999. The automatic MTS runs on all local events with magnitudes > 3.0, and all regional events > 3.5. The distributed solution automatically creates links from all USGS Simpson Maps to a text e-mail summary solution, creates a .gif image of the solution, and updates the moment tensor database tables at the SCEDC. Searchable Scanned Waveforms Site: The Caltech Seismological Lab has made available 12,223 scanned images of pre-digital analog recordings of major earthquakes recorded in Southern California between 1962 and 1992 at http://www.data.scec.org/research/scans/. The SCEDC has developed a searchable web interface that allows

The race to seismic safety : protecting California's transportation system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-12-01

Will future California earthquakes again cause destruction of portions of Californias transportation system, or will their impacts be controlled to limit the damage and disruption any large earthquake will cause? This is the key question addressed...

Predicting earthquake effects—Learning from Northridge and Loma Prieta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, Thomas L.

1994-01-01

The continental United States has been rocked by two particularly damaging earthquakes in the last 4.5 years, Loma Prieta in northern California in 1989 and Northridge in southern California in 1994. Combined losses from these two earthquakes approached $30 billion. Approximately half these losses were reimbursed by the federal government. Because large earthquakes typically overwhelm state resources and place unplanned burdens on the federal government, it is important to learn from these earthquakes how to reduce future losses. My purpose here is to explore a potential implication of the Northridge and Loma Prieta earthquakes for hazard-mitigation strategies: earth scientists should increase their efforts to map hazardous areas within urban regions. 

Broadband records of earthquakes in deep gold mines and a comparison with results from SAFOD, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, Arthur F.; Boettcher, M.; Fletcher, Jon Peter B.; Sell, Russell; Johnston, Malcolm J.; Durrheim, R.; Spottiswoode, S.; Milev, A.

2009-01-01

For one week during September 2007, we deployed a temporary network of field recorders and accelerometers at four sites within two deep, seismically active mines. The ground-motion data, recorded at 200 samples/sec, are well suited to determining source and ground-motion parameters for the mining-induced earthquakes within and adjacent to our network. Four earthquakes with magnitudes close to 2 were recorded with high signal/noise at all four sites. Analysis of seismic moments and peak velocities, in conjunction with the results of laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, were used to estimate source processes that are key to understanding source physics and to assessing underground seismic hazard. The maximum displacements on the rupture surfaces can be estimated from the parameter , where  is the peak ground velocity at a given recording site, and R is the hypocentral distance. For each earthquake, the maximum slip and seismic moment can be combined with results from laboratory friction experiments to estimate the maximum slip rate within the rupture zone. Analysis of the four M 2 earthquakes recorded during our deployment and one of special interest recorded by the in-mine seismic network in 2004 revealed maximum slips ranging from 4 to 27 mm and maximum slip rates from 1.1 to 6.3 m/sec. Applying the same analyses to an M 2.1 earthquake within a cluster of repeating earthquakes near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth site, California, yielded similar results for maximum slip and slip rate, 14 mm and 4.0 m/sec.

Satellite IR thermal measurements prior to the September 2004 earthquakes in central California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouzounov, D.; Logan, T.; Braynt, N.; Taylor, P.

2004-12-01

We present and discuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of September 18 near Bodie (M5.5) and September 28, 2004 near Parkfield(M6.0) in California. Previous analysis of earthquake events have indicated the presence of a thermal anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. The procedures used in our work is to analyze weather satellite data taken at night and to record the general condition where the ground cools after sunset. Two days before the Bodie earthquake lower temperature radiation was observed by the NOAA/AVHRR satellite. This occurred when the entire region was relatively cloud-free. IR land surface nighttime temperature from the MODIS instrument rose to +4 degrees C in a 100 km radius around the Bodie epicenter. The thermal transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment,was around +1degree C and it is significantly smaller than the thermal anomaly around the Bodie epicenter. Ground surface temperature near the Parkfield epicenter, however, for that period showed a steady increase 4 days prior to the earthquake and a significant drop of the night before the quake. Geosynchronous weather satellite thermal IR measurements taken every half hour from sunset to dawn, were also recorded for 10 days prior to the Parkfield event and 5 days after as well as the day of the quake. To establish a baseline we also obtained GOES data for the same Julian days for the three years prior to the Parkfield earthquake. These September 2004 IR data sets were then used to systematically observe and record any thermal anomaly prior to the events that deviated from the baseline. Our recent results support the hypothesis of a possible relationship between an thermodynamic processes produced by increasing tectonic stress in the Earth's crust and a subsequent electro-chemical interaction between this crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere.

Site Effects Study In Athens (greece) Using The 7th September 1999 Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serpetsidaki, A.; Sokos, E.

On 7 September 1999 at 11:56:50 GMT, an earthquake of Mw=5.9 occurred at Athens capital of Greece. The epicenter was located in the Northwest area of Parnitha Moun- tain at 18km distance from the city centre. This earthquake was one of the most de- structive in Greece during the modern times. The intensity of the earthquake reached IX in the Northwest territories of the city and caused the death of 143 people and seri- ous structural damage in many buildings. On the 13th of September the Seismological Laboratory of Patras University, installed a seismic network of 30 stations in order to observe the evolution of the aftershock sequence. This temporary seismic network remained in the area of Attika for 50 days and recorded a significant part of the af- tershock sequence. In this paper we use the high quality recordings of this network to investigate the influence of the surface geology to the seismic motion, on sites within the epicentral area, which suffered the most during this earthquake. We applied the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio method on noise and on earthquake records and the obtained results exhibit very good agreement. Finally we compare the results with the geological conditions of the study area and the damage distribution. Most of the obtained amplification levels were low with an exemption in the site of Ano Liosia were a significant amount of damage was observed and the results indicate that the earthquake motion was amplified four times. Based on the above we conclude that the damages in the city of Athens were due to source effects rather than site effects.

Seismological evidence for monsoon induced micro to moderate earthquake sequence beneath the 2011 Talala, Saurashtra earthquake, Gujarat, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A. P.; Mishra, O. P.

2015-10-01

In order to understand the processes involved in the genesis of monsoon induced micro to moderate earthquakes after heavy rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon period beneath the 2011 Talala, Saurashtra earthquake (Mw 5.1) source zone, we assimilated 3-D microstructures of the sub-surface rock materials using a data set recorded by the Seismic Network of Gujarat (SeisNetG), India. Crack attributes in terms of crack density (ε), the saturation rate (ξ) and porosity parameter (ψ) were determined from the estimated 3-D sub-surface velocities (Vp, Vs) and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures of the area at varying depths. We distinctly imaged high-ε, high-ξ and low-ψ anomalies at shallow depths, extending up to 9-15 km. We infer that the existence of sub-surface fractured rock matrix connected to the surface from the source zone may have contributed to the changes in differential strain deep down to the crust due to the infiltration of rainwater, which in turn induced micro to moderate earthquake sequence beneath Talala source zone. Infiltration of rainwater during the Indian summer monsoon might have hastened the failure of the rock by perturbing the crustal volume strain of the causative source rock matrix associated with the changes in the seismic moment release beneath the surface. Analyses of crack attributes suggest that the fractured volume of the rock matrix with high porosity and lowered seismic strength beneath the source zone might have considerable influence on the style of fault displacements due to seismo-hydraulic fluid flows. Localized zone of micro-cracks diagnosed within the causative rock matrix connected to the water table and their association with shallow crustal faults might have acted as a conduit for infiltrating the precipitation down to the shallow crustal layers following the fault suction mechanism of pore pressure diffusion, triggering the monsoon induced earthquake sequence beneath the source zone.

The 2008 Mw 7.2 North Pagai earthquake sequence: Partial rupture of a fully locked Mentawai patch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, R.; Hill, E.; Feng, L.; Wei, S.; Barbot, S.; Lindsey, E.; WANG, X.; Chen, W.; Bannerjee, P.; Hermawan, I.; Natawidjaja, D. H.

2016-12-01

The Mentawai patch is a seismic gap along the Sumatra subduction zone that has not ruptured completely over the last decade. This is worrying because coral colonies of the Mentawai islands show that over the last 700 years the Mentawai patch ruptured in a sequence of great earthquake (Mw > 8.5) about every two centuries. In September 2007, the Mw 8.4 Bengkulu earthquake ruptured the southern section of the Mentawai patch. The event was then followed by two Mw >= 7 aftershocks. Five months later, the 2008 Mw 7.2 earthquake ruptured a small asperity a little further north. The event ruptured a small area in the middle portion of the Mentawai patch, where the megathrust had been estimated as highly coupled. The mainshock was preceded by a foreshock of Mw 6.5 one day before and two M 6 aftershocks that occurred on the same day as the mainshock event. However, the whole earthquake sequence ruptured only a confined area on the megathrust and failed to wake up the sleeping giant. We have yet to explain why the 2008 event did not break more asperities and develop into one gargantuan earthquake. In this study, we use geodetic and seismic data to investigate the 2008 earthquake, its following afterslip, and its fore- and after-shocks. First, we jointly invert static and high-rate cGPS, InSAR and teleseismic data in a joint inversion for a co-seismic slip distribution of the mainshock. Second, we invert teleseismic data alone to develop slip models for the foreshock, mainshock and aftershock events. Third, we use the Cut-And-Paste (CAP) technique to estimate a more accurate depths for the 2008 earthquake sequence. Finally, we use six years of cGPS data, from 2008 to 2013, to develop a model for afterslip. Our preliminary results show 2 meters of peak coseismic slip for the mainshock. In addition, 1 meter of peak afterslip overlap with the coseismic slip model. The total estimated slip is far smaller than expected from the accumulated strain that has been stored in the

One Basin, One Stress Regime, One Orientation of Seismogenic Basement Faults, Variable Spatio-Temporal Slip Histories: Lessons from Fort Worth Basin Induced Earthquake Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeShon, H. R.; Brudzinski, M.; Frohlich, C.; Hayward, C.; Jeong, S.; Hornbach, M. J.; Magnani, M. B.; Ogwari, P.; Quinones, L.; Scales, M. M.; Stump, B. W.; Sufri, O.; Walter, J. I.

2017-12-01

Since October 2008, the Fort Worth basin in north Texas has experienced over 30 magnitude (M) 3.0+ earthquakes, including one M4.0. Five named earthquake sequences have been recorded by local seismic networks: DFW Airport, Cleburne-Johnson County, Azle, Irving-Dallas, and Venus-Johnson County. Earthquakes have occurred on northeast (NE)-southwest (SW) trending Precambrian basement faults and within the overlying Ellenburger limestone unit used for wastewater disposal. Focal mechanisms indicate primarily normal faulting, and stress inversions indicate maximum regional horizontal stress strikes 20-30° NE. The seismogenic sections of the faults in either the basement or within the Ellenburger appear optimally oriented for failure within the modern stress regime. Stress drop estimates range from 10 to 75 bars, with little variability between and within the named sequences, and the values are consistent with intraplate earthquake stress drops in natural tectonic settings. However, the spatio-temporal history of each sequence relative to wastewater injection data varies. The May 2015 M4.0 Venus earthquake, for example, is only the largest of what is nearly 10 years of earthquake activity on a single fault structure. Here, maximum earthquake size has increased with time and exhibits a log-linear relationship to cumulative injected volume from 5 nearby wells. At the DFW airport, where the causative well was shut-in within a few months of the initial earthquakes and soon after the well began operation, we document migration away from the injector on the same fault for nearly 6 km sporadically over 5 years. The Irving-Dallas and Azle sequences, like DFW airport, appear to have started rather abruptly with just a few small magnitude earthquakes in the weeks or months preceding the significant set of magnitude 3.5+ earthquakes associated with each sequence. There are no nearby (<10 km) injection operations to the Irving-Dallas sequence and the Azle linked wells operated for

Earthquake precursors: activation or quiescence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, John B.; Holliday, James R.; Yoder, Mark; Sachs, Michael K.; Donnellan, Andrea; Turcotte, Donald L.; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Klein, William; Kellogg, Louise H.

2011-10-01

We discuss the long-standing question of whether the probability for large earthquake occurrence (magnitudes m > 6.0) is highest during time periods of smaller event activation, or highest during time periods of smaller event quiescence. The physics of the activation model are based on an idea from the theory of nucleation, that a small magnitude earthquake has a finite probability of growing into a large earthquake. The physics of the quiescence model is based on the idea that the occurrence of smaller earthquakes (here considered as magnitudes m > 3.5) may be due to a mechanism such as critical slowing down, in which fluctuations in systems with long-range interactions tend to be suppressed prior to large nucleation events. To illuminate this question, we construct two end-member forecast models illustrating, respectively, activation and quiescence. The activation model assumes only that activation can occur, either via aftershock nucleation or triggering, but expresses no choice as to which mechanism is preferred. Both of these models are in fact a means of filtering the seismicity time-series to compute probabilities. Using 25 yr of data from the California-Nevada catalogue of earthquakes, we show that of the two models, activation and quiescence, the latter appears to be the better model, as judged by backtesting (by a slight but not significant margin). We then examine simulation data from a topologically realistic earthquake model for California seismicity, Virtual California. This model includes not only earthquakes produced from increases in stress on the fault system, but also background and off-fault seismicity produced by a BASS-ETAS driving mechanism. Applying the activation and quiescence forecast models to the simulated data, we come to the opposite conclusion. Here, the activation forecast model is preferred to the quiescence model, presumably due to the fact that the BASS component of the model is essentially a model for activated seismicity. These

Satellite IR Thermal Measurements Prior to the September 2004 Earthquakes in Central California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ouzounov, D.; Logan, T.; Taylor, Patrick

2004-01-01

We present and discuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of September 18 near Bodie (M5.5) and September 28,2004 near Parkfield(M6.0) in California. Previous analysis of earthquake events have indicated the presence of a thermal anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. The procedures used in our work is to analyze weather satellite data taken at night and to record the general condition where the ground cools after sunset. Two days before the Bodie earthquake lower temperature radiation was observed by the NOAA/AVHRR satellite. This occurred when the entire region was relatively cloud-free. IR land surface nighttime temperature from the MODIS instrument rose to +4 C in a 100 km radius around the Bodie epicenter. The thermal transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment, was around +l C and it is significantly smaller than the Parkfield epicenter, however, for that period showed a steady increase 4 days prior to the earthquake and a significant drop of the night before the quake. Geosynchronous weather satellite thermal IR measurements taken every half hour from sunset to dawn, were also recorded for 10 days prior to the Parkfield event and 5 days after as well as the day of the quake. To establish a baseline we also obtained GOES data for the same Julian sets were then used to systematically observe and record any thermal anomaly prior to the events that deviated from the baseline. Our recent results support the hypothesis of a possible relationship between an thermodynamic processes produced by increasing tectonic stress in the Earth's crust and a subsequent electro-chemical interaction between this crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere.

Data Sets and Data Services at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Allen, R. M.

2014-12-01

The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) houses a unique and comprehensive data archive and provides real-time services for a variety of seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern and central California. We have over 80 terabytes of continuous and event-based time series data from broadband, short-period, strong motion, and strain sensors as well as continuous and campaign GPS data at both standard and high sample rates in both raw and RINEX format. The Northen California Seismic System (NCSS), operated by UC Berkeley and USGS Menlo Park, has recorded over 890,000 events from 1984 to the present, and the NCEDC provides catalog, parametric information, moment tensors and first motion mechanisms, and time series data for these events. We also host and provide event catalogs, parametric information, and event waveforms for DOE enhanced geothermal system monitoring in northern California and Nevada. The NCEDC provides a variety of ways for users to access these data. The most recent development are web services, which provide interactive, command-line, or program-based workflow access to data. Web services use well-established server and client protocols and RESTful software architecture that allow users to easily submit queries and receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, simple text, or MiniSEED depending on the service and selected output format. The NCEDC supports all FDSN-defined web services as well as a number of IRIS-defined and NCEDC-defined services. We also continue to support older email-based and browser-based access to data. NCEDC data and web services can be found at http://www.ncedc.org and http://service.ncedc.org.

Three-dimensional compressional wavespeed model, earthquake relocations, and focal mechanisms for the Parkfield, California, region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thurber, C.; Zhang, H.; Waldhauser, F.; Hardebeck, J.; Michael, A.; Eberhart-Phillips, D.

2006-01-01

We present a new three-dimensional (3D) compressional vvavespeed (V p) model for the Parkfield region, taking advantage of the recent seismicity associated with the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquake sequences to provide increased model resolution compared to the work of Eberhart-Phillips and Michael (1993) (EPM93). Taking the EPM93 3D model as our starting model, we invert the arrival-time data from about 2100 earthquakes and 250 shots recorded on both permanent network and temporary stations in a region 130 km northeast-southwest by 120 km northwest-southeast. We include catalog picks and cross-correlation and catalog differential times in the inversion, using the double-difference tomography method of Zhang and Thurber (2003). The principal Vp features reported by EPM93 and Michelini and McEvilly (1991) are recovered, but with locally improved resolution along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) and near the active-source profiles. We image the previously identified strong wavespeed contrast (faster on the southwest side) across most of the length of the SAF, and we also improve the image of a high Vp body on the northeast side of the fault reported by EPM93. This narrow body is at about 5- to 12-km depth and extends approximately from the locked section of the SAP to the town of Parkfield. The footwall of the thrust fault responsible for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake is imaged as a northeast-dipping high wavespeed body. In between, relatively low wavespeeds (<5 km/sec) extend to as much as 10-km depth. We use this model to derive absolute locations for about 16,000 earthquakes from 1966 to 2005 and high-precision double-difference locations for 9,000 earthquakes from 1984 to 2005, and also to determine focal mechanisms for 446 earthquakes. These earthquake locations and mechanisms show that the seismogenic fault is a simple planar structure. The aftershock sequence of the 2004 mainshock concentrates into the same structures defined by the pre-2004 seismicity

Seismotectonic framework of the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Gavin P.; Bergman, Eric; Johnson, Kendra J.; Benz, Harley M.; Brown, Lucy; Meltzer, Anne S.

2013-01-01

After the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake, an international collaboration involving teams and instruments from Chile, the US, the UK, France and Germany established the International Maule Aftershock Deployment temporary network over the source region of the event to facilitate detailed, open-access studies of the aftershock sequence. Using data from the first 9-months of this deployment, we have analyzed the detailed spatial distribution of over 2500 well-recorded aftershocks. All earthquakes have been relocated using a hypocentral decomposition algorithm to study the details of and uncertainties in both their relative and absolute locations. We have computed regional moment tensor solutions for the largest of these events to produce a catalogue of 465 mechanisms, and have used all of these data to study the spatial distribution of the aftershock sequence with respect to the Chilean megathrust. We refine models of co-seismic slip distribution of the Maule earthquake, and show how small changes in fault geometries assumed in teleseismic finite fault modelling significantly improve fits to regional GPS data, implying that the accuracy of rapid teleseismic fault models can be substantially improved by consideration of existing fault geometry model databases. We interpret all of these data in an integrated seismotectonic framework for the Maule earthquake rupture and its aftershock sequence, and discuss the relationships between co-seismic rupture and aftershock distributions. While the majority of aftershocks are interplate thrust events located away from regions of maximum co-seismic slip, interesting clusters of aftershocks are identified in the lower plate at both ends of the main shock rupture, implying internal deformation of the slab in response to large slip on the plate boundary interface. We also perform Coulomb stress transfer calculations to compare aftershock locations and mechanisms to static stress changes following the Maule rupture. Without the

Signatures of the seismic source in EMD-based characterization of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake recordings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, R.R.; Ma, S.; Hartzell, S.

2003-01-01

In this article we use empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to characterize the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake records and investigate the signatures carried over from the source rupture process. Comparison of the current study results with existing source inverse solutions that use traditional data processing suggests that the EMD-based characterization contains information that sheds light on aspects of the earthquake rupture process. We first summarize the fundamentals of the EMD and illustrate its features through the analysis of a hypothetical and a real record. Typically, the Northridge strong-motion records are decomposed into eight or nine intrinsic mode functions (IMF's), each of which emphasizes a different oscillation mode with different amplitude and frequency content. The first IMF has the highest-frequency content; frequency content decreases with an increase in IMF component. With the aid of a finite-fault inversion method, we then examine aspects of the source of the 1994 Northridge earthquake that are reflected in the second to fifth IMF components. This study shows that the second IMF is predominantly wave motion generated near the hypocenter, with high-frequency content that might be related to a large stress drop associated with the initiation of the earthquake. As one progresses from the second to the fifth IMF component, there is a general migration of the source region away from the hypocenter with associated longer-period signals as the rupture propagates. This study suggests that the different IMF components carry information on the earthquake rupture process that is expressed in their different frequency bands.

The 2004 Parkfield, CA Earthquake: A Teachable Moment for Exploring Earthquake Processes, Probability, and Earthquake Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafka, A.; Barnett, M.; Ebel, J.; Bellegarde, H.; Campbell, L.

2004-12-01

The occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake provided a unique "teachable moment" for students in our science course for teacher education majors. The course uses seismology as a medium for teaching a wide variety of science topics appropriate for future teachers. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake occurred just 15 minutes after our students completed a lab on earthquake processes and earthquake prediction. That lab included a discussion of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment as a motivation for the exercises they were working on that day. Furthermore, this earthquake was recorded on an AS1 seismograph right in their lab, just minutes after the students left. About an hour after we recorded the earthquake, the students were able to see their own seismogram of the event in the lecture part of the course, which provided an excellent teachable moment for a lecture/discussion on how the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake might affect seismologists' ideas about earthquake prediction. The specific lab exercise that the students were working on just before we recorded this earthquake was a "sliding block" experiment that simulates earthquakes in the classroom. The experimental apparatus includes a flat board on top of which are blocks of wood attached to a bungee cord and a string wrapped around a hand crank. Plate motion is modeled by slowly turning the crank, and earthquakes are modeled as events in which the block slips ("blockquakes"). We scaled the earthquake data and the blockquake data (using how much the string moved as a proxy for time) so that we could compare blockquakes and earthquakes. This provided an opportunity to use interevent-time histograms to teach about earthquake processes, probability, and earthquake prediction, and to compare earthquake sequences with blockquake sequences. We were able to show the students, using data obtained directly from their own lab, how global earthquake data fit a Poisson exponential distribution better

Evidence of shallow fault zone strengthening after the 1992 M7.5 Landers, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Y.-G.; Vidale, J.E.; Aki, K.; Xu, Fei; Burdette, T.

1998-01-01

Repeated seismic surveys of the Landers, California, fault zone that ruptured in the magnitude (M) 7.5 earthquake of 1992 reveal an increase in seismic velocity with time. P, S, and fault zone trapped waves were excited by near-surface explosions in two locations in 1994 and 1996, and were recorded on two linear, three-component seismic arrays deployed across the Johnson Valley fault trace. The travel times of P and S waves for identical shot-receiver pairs decreased by 0.5 to 1.5 percent from 1994 to 1996, with the larger changes at stations located within the fault zone. These observations indicate that the shallow Johnson Valley fault is strengthening after the main shock, most likely because of closure of cracks that were opened by the 1992 earthquake. The increase in velocity is consistent with the prevalence of dry over wet cracks and with a reduction in the apparent crack density near the fault zone by approximately 1.0 percent from 1994 to 1996.

Magnetic field observations in the near-field the 28 June 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnston, M.J.; Mueller, R.J.; Sasai, Yoichi

1994-01-01

Recent reports suggest that large magnetic field changes occur prior to, and during, large earthquakes. Two continuously operating proton magnetometers, LSBM and OCHM, at distances of 17.3 and 24.2 km, respectively, from the epicenter of the 28 June 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake, recorded data through the earthquake and its aftershocks. These two stations are part of a differentially connected array of proton magnetometers that has been operated along the San Andreas fault since 1976. The instruments have a sensitivity of 0.25 nT or better and transmit data every 10 min through the GOES satellite to the USGS headquarters in Menlo Park, California. Seismomagnetic offsets of −1.2 ± 0.6 and −0.7 ± 0.7 nT were observed at these sites. In comparison, offsets of −0.3 ± 0.2 and −1.3 ± 0.2 nT were observed during the 8 July 1986 ML 5.9 North Palm Springs earthquake, which occurred directly beneath the OCHM magnetometer site. The observations are generally consistent with seismomagnetic models of the earthquake, in which fault geometry and slip have the same from as that determined by either inversion of the seismic data or inversion of geodetically determined ground displacements produced by the earthquake. In these models, right-lateral rupture occurs on connected fault segments in a homogeneous medium with average magnetization of 2 A/m. The fault-slip distribution has roughly the same form as the observed surface rupture, and the total moment release is 1.1 × 1020 Nm. There is no indication of diffusion-like character to the magnetic field offsets that might indicate these effects result from fluid flow phenomena. It thus seems unlikely that these earthquake-generated offsets and those produced by the North Palm Springs earthquake were generated by electrokinetic effects. Also, there are no indications of enhanced low-frequency magnetic noise before the earthquake at frequencies below 0.001 Hz.

The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario - A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Suzanne; Cox, Dale; Jones, Lucile; Bernknopf, Richard; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

2008-01-01

The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for this event, scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have changed the way that earthquake scenarios are done, uniting a multidisciplinary team that spans an unprecedented number of specialties. The team includes the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and nearly 200 other partners in government, academia, emergency response, and industry, working to understand the long-term impacts of an enormous earthquake on the complicated social and economic interactions that sustain southern California society. This project, the ShakeOut Scenario, has applied the best current scientific understanding to identify what can be done now to avoid an earthquake catastrophe. More information on the science behind this project will be available in The ShakeOut Scenario (USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/). The 'what if?' earthquake modeled in the ShakeOut Scenario is a magnitude 7.8 on the southern San Andreas Fault. Geologists selected the details of this hypothetical earthquake by considering the amount of stored strain on that part of the fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking that would occur in this earthquake. Engineers and other professionals used the shaking to produce a realistic picture of this earthquake's damage to buildings, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. From these damages, social scientists projected casualties, emergency response, and the impact of the scenario earthquake on southern California's economy and society. The earthquake, its damages, and

Scenario earthquake hazards for the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, east-central California (ver. 2.0, January 2018)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Rui; Branum, David M.; Wills, Chris J.; Hill, David P.

2014-06-30

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be useful in estimating the extent of potential damage and economic losses because of potential earthquakes and also for preparing emergency response plans.The Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area has numerous active faults. Five of these faults or fault zones are considered capable of producing magnitude ≥6.7 earthquakes according to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program. These five faults are the Fish Slough, Hartley Springs, Hilton Creek, Mono Lake, and Round Valley Faults. CGS developed earthquake scenarios for these five faults in the study area and for the White Mountains Fault Zone to the east of the study area.In this report, an earthquake scenario is intended to depict the potential consequences of significant earthquakes. A scenario earthquake is not necessarily the largest or most damaging earthquake possible on a recognized fault. Rather it is both large enough and likely enough that emergency planners should consider it in regional emergency response plans. In particular, the ground motion predicted for a given scenario earthquake does not represent a full probabilistic hazard assessment, and thus it does not provide the basis for hazard zoning and earthquake-resistant building design.Earthquake scenarios presented here are based on fault geometry and activity data developed by the WGCEP, and are consistent with the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM). Alternatives

Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Gavin P.; Herman, Matthew W.; Barnhart, William D.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S.; Samsonov, Sergey

2014-01-01

The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ~8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March–April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

PubMed

Hayes, Gavin P; Herman, Matthew W; Barnhart, William D; Furlong, Kevin P; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S; Samsonov, Sergey

2014-08-21

The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ∼8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

Triggered reverse fault and earthquake due to crustal unloading, northwest Transverse Ranges, California.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yerkes, R.F.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Tinsley, J.C.

1983-01-01

A reverse-right-oblique surface rupture, associated with a ML 2.5 earthquake, formed in a diatomite quarry near Lompoc, California, in the northwesternmost Transverse Ranges on April 7, 1981. The 575-m-long narrow zone of ruptures formed in clay interbeds in diatomite and diatomaceous shale of the Neogene Monterey Formation. The ruptures parallel bedding, dip 39o-59oS, and trend about N84oE on the north limb of an open symmetrical syncline. Maximum net slip was 25 cm; maximum reverse dip slip was 23 cm, maximum right-lateral strike slip was about 9 cm, and average net slip was about 12 cm. The seismic moment of the earthquake is estimated at 1 to 2 X 1018 dyne/cm and the static stress drop at about 3 bar. The removal of an average of about 44 m of diatomite resulted in an average load reduction of about 5 bar, which decreased the normal stress by about 3.5 bar and increased the shear stress on the tilted bedding plane by about 2 bar. The April 7, 1981, event was a very shallow bedding-plane rupture, apparently triggered by crustal unloading. -Authors

The Road to Total Earthquake Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frohlich, Cliff

Cinna Lomnitz is possibly the most distinguished earthquake seismologist in all of Central and South America. Among many other credentials, Lomnitz has personally experienced the shaking and devastation that accompanied no fewer than five major earthquakes—Chile, 1939; Kern County, California, 1952; Chile, 1960; Caracas,Venezuela, 1967; and Mexico City, 1985. Thus he clearly has much to teach someone like myself, who has never even actually felt a real earthquake.What is this slim book? The Road to Total Earthquake Safety summarizes Lomnitz's May 1999 presentation at the Seventh Mallet-Milne Lecture, sponsored by the Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics. His arguments are motivated by the damage that occurred in three earthquakes—Mexico City, 1985; Loma Prieta, California, 1989; and Kobe, Japan, 1995. All three quakes occurred in regions where earthquakes are common. Yet in all three some of the worst damage occurred in structures located a significant distance from the epicenter and engineered specifically to resist earthquakes. Some of the damage also indicated that the structures failed because they had experienced considerable rotational or twisting motion. Clearly, Lomnitz argues, there must be fundamental flaws in the usually accepted models explaining how earthquakes generate strong motions, and how we should design resistant structures.

Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT): Towards the Next Generation of Internship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, S.; Benthien, M.; Jordan, T. H.

2005-12-01

The SCEC/UseIT internship program is training the next generation of earthquake scientist, with methods that can be adapted to other disciplines. UseIT interns work collaboratively, in multi-disciplinary teams, conducting computer science research that is needed by earthquake scientists. Since 2002, the UseIT program has welcomed 64 students, in some two dozen majors, at all class levels, from schools around the nation. Each summer''s work is posed as a ``Grand Challenge.'' The students then organize themselves into project teams, decide how to proceed, and pool their diverse talents and backgrounds. They have traditional mentors, who provide advice and encouragement, but they also mentor one another, and this has proved to be a powerful relationship. Most begin with fear that their Grand Challenge is impossible, and end with excitement and pride about what they have accomplished. The 22 UseIT interns in summer, 2005, were primarily computer science and engineering majors, with others in geology, mathematics, English, digital media design, physics, history, and cinema. The 2005 Grand Challenge was to "build an earthquake monitoring system" to aid scientists who must visualize rapidly evolving earthquake sequences and convey information to emergency personnel and the public. Most UseIT interns were engaged in software engineering, bringing new datasets and functionality to SCEC-VDO (Virtual Display of Objects), a 3D visualization software that was prototyped by interns last year, using Java3D and an extensible, plug-in architecture based on the Eclipse Integrated Development Environment. Other UseIT interns used SCEC-VDO to make animated movies, and experimented with imagery in order to communicate concepts and events in earthquake science. One movie-making project included the creation of an assessment to test the effectiveness of the movie''s educational message. Finally, one intern created an interactive, multimedia presentation of the UseIT program.

Dynamic deformations and the M6.7, Northridge, California earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.

1997-01-01

A method of estimating the complete time-varying dynamic formation field from commonly available three-component single station seismic data has been developed and applied to study the relationship between dynamic deformation and ground failures and structural damage using observations from the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. Estimates from throughout the epicentral region indicate that the horizontal strains exceed the vertical ones by more than a factor of two. The largest strains (exceeding ???100 ??strain) correlate with regions of greatest ground failure. There is a poor correlation between structural damage and peak strain amplitudes. The smallest strains, ???35 ??strain, are estimated in regions of no damage or ground failure. Estimates in the two regions with most severe and well mapped permanent deformation, Potrero Canyon and the Granada-Mission Hills regions, exhibit the largest strains; peak horizontal strains estimates in these regions equal ???139 and ???229 ??strain respectively. Of note, the dynamic principal strain axes have strikes consistent with the permanent failure features suggesting that, while gravity, sub-surface materials, and hydrologic conditions undoubtedly played fundamental roles in determining where and what types of failures occurred, the dynamic deformation field may have been favorably sized and oriented to initiate failure processes. These results support other studies that conclude that the permanent deformation resulted from ground shaking, rather than from static strains associated with primary or secondary faulting. They also suggest that such an analysis, either using data or theoretical calculations, may enable observations of paleo-ground failure to be used as quantitative constraints on the size and geometry of previous earthquakes. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science Limited.

Earthquakes, November-December 1977

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1978-01-01

In the United States, the largest earthquake during this reporting period was a magntidue 6.6 in the Andreanof Islands, which are part of the Aleutian Islands chain, on November 4 that caused some minor damage. Northern California was struck by a magnitude 4.8 earthquake on November 22 causing moderate damage in the Willits area. This was the most damaging quake in the United States during the year. Two major earthquakes of magntidues 7.0 or above to 14 for the year. 

Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David A.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Powers, Peter; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the

Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system, central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burford, R.O.

1988-01-01

Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes of ML=5.3 and ML=5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquake retardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 ML=5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter site for

Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system, central California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burford, Robert O.

1988-06-01

Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes of M L =5.3 and M L =5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquake retardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 M L =5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter

The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: a unique organization promoting earthquake and tsunami resilience on California's North Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

2012-12-01

The Northern California counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, and Mendocino account for over 30% of California's coastline and is one of the most seismically active areas of the contiguous 48 states. The region is at risk from earthquakes located on- and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Geological Survey (CGS) published a scenario for a CSZ earthquake that included both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector, was formed to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation in the three-county region. The RCTWG and its member agencies projects include education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning. Since 2008, RCTWG has worked with the California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) in conducting tsunami warning communications tests on the North Coast. In 2007, RCTWG members helped develop and carry out the first tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD. The RCTWG has facilitated numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises, and RCTWG county tsunami response plans have been a model for other regions of the state and country. Eight North Coast communities have been recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service, including the first National Park the first State Park and only tribe in California to be so recognized. Over 500 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in the RCTWG region since 2008. Eight assessment surveys from 1993 to 2010 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the county and additional surveys have tracked public awareness and tourist

Effects of three-dimensional velocity structure on the seismicity of the 1984 Morgan Hill, California, aftershock sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.

1988-01-01

A three-dimensional velocity model for the area surrounding the 24 April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake has been developed by simultaneously inverting local earthquake and refraction arrival-time data. This velocity model corresponds well to the surface geology of the region, predominantly showing a low-velocity region associated with the sedimentary sequence to the south-west of the Madrone Springs fault. The focal mechanisms were also determined for 946 earthquakes using both the one-dimensional and three-dimensional earth models. Both earth models yield similar focal mechanisms for these earthquakes. -from Author

Static stress transfer during the 2002 Nenana Mountain-Denali Fault, Alaska, earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, G.; Ji, C.

2003-01-01

On 23 October 2002, the Mw 6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake occurred in central Alaska. It was followed on 3 November 2002 by the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault mainshock, the largest strike-slip earthquake to occur in North America during the past 150 years. We have modeled static Coulomb stress transfer effects during this sequence. We find that the Nenana Mountain foreshock transferred 30-50 kPa of Coulomb stress to the hypocentral region of the Denali Fault mainshock, encouraging its occurrence. We also find that the two main earthquakes together transferred more than 400 kPa of Coulomb stress to the Cross Creek segment of the Totschunda fault system and to the Denali fault southeast of the mainshock rupture, and up to 80 kPa to the Denali fault west of the Nenana Mountain rupture. Other major faults in the region experienced much smaller static Coulomb stress changes.

Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Intraregional Commuter, Worker, and Earnings Flow Analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region (Jones and others, 2008). This report uses selected datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau and the State of California's Employment Development Department to develop preliminary estimates of the number and spatial distribution of commuters who cross the San Andreas Fault and to characterize these commuters by the industries in which they work and their total earnings. The analysis concerns the relative exposure of the region's economy to the effects of the earthquake as described by the location, volume, and earnings of those commuters who work in each of the region's economic sectors. It is anticipated that damage to transportation corridors traversing the fault would lead to at least short-term disruptions in the ability of commuters to travel between their places of residence and work.

Fluid-driven normal faulting earthquake sequences in the Taiwan orogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ling-hua; Rau, Ruey-Juin; Lee, En-Jui

2017-04-01

Seismicity in the Central Range of Taiwan shows normal faulting mechanisms with T-axes directing NE, subparallel to the strike of the mountain belt. We analyze earthquake sequences occurred within 2012-2015 in the Nanshan area of northern Taiwan which indicating swarm behavior and migration characteristics. We select events larger than 2.0 from Central Weather Bureau catalog and use the double-difference relocation program hypoDD with waveform cross-correlation in the Nanshan area. We obtained a final count of 1406 (95%) relocated earthquakes. Moreover, we compute focal mechanisms using USGS program HASH by P-wave first motion and S/P ratio picking and 114 fault plane solutions with M 3.0-5.87 were determined. To test for fluid diffusion, we model seismicity using the equation of Shapiro et al. (1997) by fitting earthquake diffusing rate D during the migration period. According to the relocation result, seismicity in the Taiwan orogenic belt present mostly N25E orientation parallel to the mountain belt with the same direction of the tension axis. In addition, another seismic fracture depicted by seismicity rotated 35 degree counterclockwise to the NW direction. Nearly all focal mechanisms are normal fault type. In the Nanshan area, events show N10W distribution with a focal depth range from 5-12 km and illustrate fault plane dipping about 45-60 degree to SW. Three months before the M 5.87 mainshock which occurred in March, 2013, there were some foreshock events occurred in the shallow part of the fault plane of the mainshock. Half a year following the mainshock, earthquakes migrated to the north and south, respectively with processes matched the diffusion model at a rate of 0.2-0.6 m2/s. This migration pattern and diffusion rate offer an evidence of 'fluid-driven' process in the fault zone. We also find the upward migration of earthquakes in the mainshock source region. These phenomena are likely caused by the opening of the permeable conduit due to the M 5

A comparison among observations and earthquake simulator results for the allcal2 California fault model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tullis, Terry. E.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Barall, Michael; Dieterich, James H.; Field, Edward H.; Heien, Eric M.; Kellogg, Louise; Pollitz, Fred F.; Rundle, John B.; Sachs, Michael K.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Ward, Steven N.; Yikilmaz, M. Burak

2012-01-01

In order to understand earthquake hazards we would ideally have a statistical description of earthquakes for tens of thousands of years. Unfortunately the ∼100‐year instrumental, several 100‐year historical, and few 1000‐year paleoseismological records are woefully inadequate to provide a statistically significant record. Physics‐based earthquake simulators can generate arbitrarily long histories of earthquakes; thus they can provide a statistically meaningful history of simulated earthquakes. The question is, how realistic are these simulated histories? This purpose of this paper is to begin to answer that question. We compare the results between different simulators and with information that is known from the limited instrumental, historic, and paleoseismological data.As expected, the results from all the simulators show that the observational record is too short to properly represent the system behavior; therefore, although tests of the simulators against the limited observations are necessary, they are not a sufficient test of the simulators’ realism. The simulators appear to pass this necessary test. In addition, the physics‐based simulators show similar behavior even though there are large differences in the methodology. This suggests that they represent realistic behavior. Different assumptions concerning the constitutive properties of the faults do result in enhanced capabilities of some simulators. However, it appears that the similar behavior of the different simulators may result from the fault‐system geometry, slip rates, and assumed strength drops, along with the shared physics of stress transfer.This paper describes the results of running four earthquake simulators that are described elsewhere in this issue of Seismological Research Letters. The simulators ALLCAL (Ward, 2012), VIRTCAL (Sachs et al., 2012), RSQSim (Richards‐Dinger and Dieterich, 2012), and ViscoSim (Pollitz, 2012) were run on our most recent all‐California fault

Rates and patterns of surface deformation from laser scanning following the South Napa earthquake, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeLong, Stephen B.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Pickering, Alexandra J; Avdievitch, Nikita N.

2015-01-01

The A.D. 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake, despite its moderate magnitude, caused significant damage to the Napa Valley in northern California (USA). Surface rupture occurred along several mapped and unmapped faults. Field observations following the earthquake indicated that the magnitude of postseismic surface slip was likely to approach or exceed the maximum coseismic surface slip and as such presented ongoing hazard to infrastructure. Using a laser scanner, we monitored postseismic deformation in three dimensions through time along 0.5 km of the main surface rupture. A key component of this study is the demonstration of proper alignment of repeat surveys using point cloud–based methods that minimize error imposed by both local survey errors and global navigation satellite system georeferencing errors. Using solid modeling of natural and cultural features, we quantify dextral postseismic displacement at several hundred points near the main fault trace. We also quantify total dextral displacement of initially straight cultural features. Total dextral displacement from both coseismic displacement and the first 2.5 d of postseismic displacement ranges from 0.22 to 0.29 m. This range increased to 0.33–0.42 m at 59 d post-earthquake. Furthermore, we estimate up to 0.15 m of vertical deformation during the first 2.5 d post-earthquake, which then increased by ∼0.02 m at 59 d post-earthquake. This vertical deformation is not expressed as a distinct step or scarp at the fault trace but rather as a broad up-to-the-west zone of increasing elevation change spanning the fault trace over several tens of meters, challenging common notions about fault scarp development in strike-slip systems. Integrating these analyses provides three-dimensional mapping of surface deformation and identifies spatial variability in slip along the main fault trace that we attribute to distributed slip via subtle block rotation. These results indicate the benefits of laser scanner surveys along

Cataloging the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central U.S., earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

2009-01-01

The three principal New Madrid, central U.S., mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for the sequence, historical accounts provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large aftershocks as well as the mainshocks. Several detailed eyewitness accounts of the sequence provide sufficient information to identify times and rough magnitude estimates for a number of aftershocks that have not been analyzed previously. I also use three extended compilations of felt events to explore the overall sequence productivity. Although one generally cannot estimate magnitudes or locations for individual events, the intensity distributions of recent, instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the region provide a basis for estimation of the magnitude distribution of 1811-1812 aftershocks. The distribution is consistent with a b-value distribution. I estimate Mw 6-6.3 for the three largest identifiable aftershocks, apart from the so-called dawn aftershock on 16 December 1811.

School Site Preparedness for the Safety of California's Children K-12. Official Report of the Northridge Earthquake Task Force on Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

California State Legislature, Sacramento. Senate Select Committee on the Northridge Earthquake.

This report asserts that disaster preparedness at all school sites must become a major and immediate priority. Should a disaster equaling the magnitude of the Northridge earthquake occur, the current varying levels of site preparedness may not adequately protect California's children. The report describes why the state's children are not safe and…

Crustal deformation in great California earthquake cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Victor C.; Rice, James R.

1986-01-01

Periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike slip earthquakes is computed for the following model: A depth L (less than or similiar to H) extending downward from the Earth's surface at a transform boundary between uniform elastic lithospheric plates of thickness H is locked between earthquakes. It slips an amount consistent with remote plate velocity V sub pl after each lapse of earthquake cycle time T sub cy. Lower portions of the fault zone at the boundary slip continuously so as to maintain constant resistive shear stress. The plates are coupled at their base to a Maxwellian viscoelastic asthenosphere through which steady deep seated mantle motions, compatible with plate velocity, are transmitted to the surface plates. The coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model. It is argued that the model gives a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading, including the time dependence of deep slip and crustal stress build up throughout the earthquake cycle, than do simpler kinematic models in which loading is represented as imposed uniform dislocation slip on the fault below the locked zone.

Pre-earthquake multiparameter analysis of the 2016 Amatrice-Norcia (Central Italy) seismic sequence: a case study for the application of the SAFE project concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Santis, A.

2017-12-01

The SAFE (Swarm for Earthquake study) project (funded by European Space Agency in the framework "STSE Swarm+Innovation", 2014-2016) aimed at applying the new approach of geosystemics to the analysis of Swarm satellite (ESA) electromagnetic data for investigating the preparatory phase of earthquakes. We present in this talk the case study of the most recent seismic sequence in Italy. First a M6 earthquake on 24 August 2016 and then a M6.5 earthquake on 30 October 2016 shocked almost in the same region of Central Italy causing about 300 deaths in total (mostly on 24 August), with a revival of other significant seismicity on January 2017. Analysing both geophysical and climatological satellite and ground data preceding the major earthquakes of the sequence we present results that confirm a complex solid earth-atmosphere coupling in the preparation phase of the whole sequence.

The USGS Earthquake Notification Service (ENS): Customizable notifications of earthquakes around the globe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, Lisa A.; Wald, David J.; Schwarz, Stan; Presgrave, Bruce; Earle, Paul S.; Martinez, Eric; Oppenheimer, David

2008-01-01

At the beginning of 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) introduced a new automated Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) to take the place of the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) "Bigquake" system and the various other individual EHP e-mail list-servers for separate regions in the United States. These included northern California, southern California, and the central and eastern United States. ENS is a "one-stop shopping" system that allows Internet users to subscribe to flexible and customizable notifications for earthquakes anywhere in the world. The customization capability allows users to define the what (magnitude threshold), the when (day and night thresholds), and the where (specific regions) for their notifications. Customization is achieved by employing a per-user based request profile, allowing the notifications to be tailored for each individual's requirements. Such earthquake-parameter-specific custom delivery was not possible with simple e-mail list-servers. Now that event and user profiles are in a structured query language (SQL) database, additional flexibility is possible. At the time of this writing, ENS had more than 114,000 subscribers, with more than 200,000 separate user profiles. On a typical day, more than 188,000 messages get sent to a variety of widely distributed users for a wide range of earthquake locations and magnitudes. The purpose of this article is to describe how ENS works, highlight the features it offers, and summarize plans for future developments.

Repeating Earthquake and Nonvolcanic Tremor Observations of Aseismic Deep Fault Transients in Central California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeau, R. M.; Traer, M.; Guilhem, A.

2005-12-01

Seismic indicators of fault zone deformation can complement geodetic measurements by providing information on aseismic transient deformation: 1) from deep within the fault zone, 2) on a regional scale, 3) with intermediate temporal resolution (weeks to months) and 4) that spans over 2 decades (1984 to early 2005), including pre- GPS and INSAR coverage. Along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California, two types of seismic indicators are proving to be particularly useful for providing information on deep fault zone deformation. The first, characteristically repeating microearthquakes, provide long-term coverage (decades) on the evolution of aseismic fault slip rates at seismogenic depths along a large (~175 km) stretch of the SAF between the rupture zones of the ~M8 1906 San Francisco and 1857 Fort Tejon earthquakes. In Cascadia and Japan the second type of seismic indicator, nonvolcanic tremors, have shown a remarkable correlation between their activity rates and GPS and tiltmeter measurements of transient deformation in the deep (sub-seismogenic) fault zone. This correlation suggests that tremor rate changes and deep transient deformation are intimately related and that deformation associated with the tremor activity may be stressing the seismogenic zone in both areas. Along the SAF, nonvolcanic tremors have only recently been discovered (i.e., in the Parkfield-Cholame area), and knowledge of their full spatial extent is still relatively limited. Nonetheless the observed temporal correlation between earthquake and tremor activity in this area is consistent with a model in which sub-seismogenic deformation and seismogenic zone stress changes are closely related. We present observations of deep aseismic transient deformation associated with the 28 September 2004, M6 Parkfield earthquake from both repeating earthquake and nonvolcanic tremor data. Also presented are updated deep fault slip rate estimates from prepeating quakes in the San Juan Bautista area with

Investigating on the Differences between Triggered and Background Seismicity in Italy and Southern California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stallone, A.; Marzocchi, W.

2017-12-01

Earthquake occurrence may be approximated by a multidimensional Poisson clustering process, where each point of the Poisson process is replaced by a cluster of points, the latter corresponding to the well-known aftershock sequence (triggered events). Earthquake clusters and their parents are assumed to occur according to a Poisson process at a constant temporal rate proportional to the tectonic strain rate, while events within a cluster are modeled as generations of dependent events reproduced by a branching process. Although the occurrence of such space-time clusters is a general feature in different tectonic settings, seismic sequences seem to have marked differences from region to region: one example, among many others, is that seismic sequences of moderate magnitude in Italian Apennines seem to last longer than similar seismic sequences in California. In this work we investigate on the existence of possible differences in the earthquake clustering process in these two areas. At first, we separate the triggered and background components of seismicity in the Italian and Southern California seismic catalog. Then we study the space-time domain of the triggered earthquakes with the aim to identify possible variations in the triggering properties across the two regions. In the second part of the work we focus our attention on the characteristics of the background seismicity in both seismic catalogs. The assumption of time stationarity of the background seismicity (which includes both cluster parents and isolated events) is still under debate. Some authors suggest that the independent component of seismicity could undergo transient perturbations at various time scales due to different physical mechanisms, such as, for example, viscoelastic relaxation, presence of fluids, non-stationary plate motion, etc, whose impact may depend on the tectonic setting. Here we test if the background seismicity in the two regions can be satisfactorily described by the time

Seasonal water storage, stress modulation, and California seismicity.

PubMed

Johnson, Christopher W; Fu, Yuning; Bürgmann, Roland

2017-06-16

Establishing what controls the timing of earthquakes is fundamental to understanding the nature of the earthquake cycle and critical to determining time-dependent earthquake hazard. Seasonal loading provides a natural laboratory to explore the crustal response to a quantifiable transient force. In California, water storage deforms the crust as snow and water accumulates during the wet winter months. We used 9 years of global positioning system (GPS) vertical deformation time series to constrain models of monthly hydrospheric loading and the resulting stress changes on fault planes of small earthquakes. The seasonal loading analysis reveals earthquakes occurring more frequently during stress conditions that favor earthquake rupture. We infer that California seismicity rates are modestly modulated by natural hydrological loading cycles. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Preparing for a "Big One": The great southern California shakeout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, L.M.; Benthien, M.

2011-01-01

The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. On November 13, 2008, over 5 million Southern Californians pretended that the magnitude-7.8 ShakeOut scenario earthquake was occurring and practiced actions derived from results of the ShakeOut Scenario, to reduce the impact of a real, San Andreas Fault event. The communications campaign was based on four principles: 1) consistent messaging from multiple sources; 2) visual reinforcement: 3) encouragement of "milling"; and 4) focus on concrete actions. The goals of the Shake-Out established in Spring 2008 were: 1) to register 5 million people to participate in the drill; 2) to change the culture of earthquake preparedness in Southern California; and 3) to reduce earthquake losses in Southern California. Over 90% of the registrants surveyed the next year reported improvement in earthquake preparedness at their organization as a result of the ShakeOut. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Persistent Seismicity and Energetics of the 2010 Earthquake Sequence of the Gros Ventre-Teton Area, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, J.

2010-12-01

Farrell, Jamie M. Smith, Robert Massin, Fred White, Bonnie Department of Geology and Geophysics University of Utah Salt Lake City, Utah 84112 Seismicity has persisted along a zone south of the Yellowstone volcanic field in the Gros Ventre Range, Wyoming, and on the eastern edge of the asesimic Quat. high slip-rate Teton fault. Concentrated seismicity has in this area occurs in sporadic sequences documented since 1923 with notable earthquakes in the decade preceding the deadly 1925 Gros Ventre slide that eventually lead to the failure of a dam blocked by the slide in 1927. Notable seismicity of the Gros Ventre region, using data from the Teton, Yellowstone and USArray seismic networks, has continued in the last decade with sequences in 2002, 2004, culminating in an energetic sequence beginning in May, 2009 through a sequence of more than 180 well located earthquakes mainly from August 5 to August 17 of 0.5sequence along with previous sequences is being done using new multiplet cross-correlation analysis, precise hypocenter relocations, dynamic visco-elastic fault modeling and moment tensor analyses of small earthquakes and stress-field inversion jointly with GPS data.

Statistical discrimination of induced and tectonic earthquake sequences in Central and Eastern US based on waveform detected catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X.; Daniels, C.; Smith, E.; Peng, Z.; Chen, X.; Wagner, L. S.; Fischer, K. M.; Hawman, R. B.

2015-12-01

Since 2001, the number of M>3 earthquakes increased significantly in Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), likely due to waste-water injection, also known as "induced earthquakes" [Ellsworth, 2013]. Because induced earthquakes are driven by short-term external forcing and hence may behave like earthquake swarms, which are not well characterized by branching point-process models, such as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. In this study we focus on the 02/15/2014 M4.1 South Carolina and the 06/16/2014 M4.3 Oklahoma earthquakes, which likely represent intraplate tectonic and induced events, respectively. For the South Carolina event, only one M3.0 aftershock is identified by the ANSS catalog, which may be caused by a lack of low-magnitude events in this catalog. We apply a recently developed matched filter technique to detect earthquakes from 02/08/2014 to 02/22/2014 around the epicentral region. 15 seismic stations (both permanent and temporary USArray networks) within 100 km of the mainshock are used for detection. The mainshock and aftershock are used as templates for the initial detection. Newly detected events are employed as new templates, and the same detection procedure repeats until no new event can be added. Overall we have identified more than 10 events, including one foreshock occurred ~11 min before the M4.1 mainshock. However, the numbers of aftershocks are still much less than predicted with the modified Bath's law. For the Oklahoma event, we use 1270 events from the ANSS catalog and 182 events from a relocated catalog as templates to scan through continuous recordings 3 days before to 7 days after the mainshock. 12 seismic stations within the vicinity of the mainshock are included in the study. After obtaining more complete catalogs for both sequences, we plan to compare the statistical parameters (e.g., b, a, K, and p values) between the two sequences, as well as their spatial-temporal migration pattern, which may

New cooperative seismograph networks established in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, D.P.

1974-01-01

Southern California has more active faults located close to large, urban population centers than any other region in the United States. Reduction of risk to life and property posed by potential earthquakes along these active faults is a primary motivation for a cooperative earthquake research program between the U.S Geological Survey and major universities in Southern California. 

The 2008 Mw 6.0 Wells, Nevada Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K.; Depolo, D.; Torrisi, J.; Edwards, N.; Biasi, G.; Slater, D.

2008-12-01

The Mw 6.0 February 21, 2008 (06:16 AM PDT) Wells, Nevada normal faulting earthquake occurred in Town Creek Flat about 8 km northeast of the small community of Wells. A preliminary set of about 1000 aftershock relocations clearly defines a 55-60 degree southeast dipping fault plane. The structure projects to the surface along the southern end of the Snake Range, although no surface offsets have been identified. The earthquake occurred east of the Ruby Mountains and Snake Range west dipping range front faults, possibly on a northern extension of an east dipping normal fault system on the eastern side of the East Humbolt Range. The depth of the mainshock is estimated to be 10.5 km with the aftershock sequence extending to about 15 km. Typical of moderate sized Basin and Range earthquakes, the early aftershock period included several earthquakes of M > 4 and these were felt strongly by the residents of Wells. From the preliminary relocations, the source radius of the mainshock is estimated to be about 4 km, resulting in an estimated displacement of 55 to 83 cm and static stress drop of 72 to 86 bars, depending on the seismic moment estimate used. Aftershock relocations suggest a radial rupture mechanism. Fortunately, the EarthScope USArray network was operating in Nevada at the time of the event and provided unique controls on the mainshock and early aftershock locations. The earthquake occurred in an area of relatively low seismic hazard and the only permanent seismograph in the region was the U.S. National Network broadband station east of the Ruby Mountains south of Wells. The University of Utah and University of Nevada deployed locally recorded strong motion instruments in the Wells area. Also, an 8 station IP telemetered strong motion network, jointly deployed by the U.S. Geological Survey and University of Nevada Reno, provided real-time data for quick high-quality aftershock relocations and ground motion estimates. In addition, the University of Utah

In-situ fluid-pressure measurements for earthquake prediction: An example from a deep well at Hi Vista, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, J.H.; Urban, T.C.

1985-01-01

Short-term earthquake prediction requires sensitive instruments for measuring the small anomalous changes in stress and strain that precede earthquakes. Instruments installed at or near the surface have proven too noisy for measuring anomalies of the size expected to occur, and it is now recognized that even to have the possibility of a reliable earthquake-prediction system will require instruments installed in drill holes at depths sufficient to reduce the background noise to a level below that of the expected premonitory signals. We are conducting experiments to determine the maximum signal-to-noise improvement that can be obtained in drill holes. In a 592 m well in the Mojave Desert near Hi Vista, California, we measured water-level changes with amplitudes greater than 10 cm, induced by earth tides. By removing the effects of barometric pressure and the stress related to earth tides, we have achieved a sensitivity to volumetric strain rates of 10-9 to 10-10 per day. Further improvement may be possible, and it appears that a successful earthquake-prediction capability may be achieved with an array of instruments installed in drill holes at depths of about 1 km, assuming that the premonitory strain signals are, in fact, present. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

Earthquake Shaking - Finding the "Hot Spots"

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Jones, Lucile; Jordan, Tom; Benthien, Mark; Wald, Lisa

2001-01-01

A new Southern California Earthquake Center study has quantified how local geologic conditions affect the shaking experienced in an earthquake. The important geologic factors at a site are softness of the rock or soil near the surface and thickness of the sediments above hard bedrock. Even when these 'site effects' are taken into account, however, each earthquake exhibits unique 'hotspots' of anomalously strong shaking. Better predictions of strong ground shaking will therefore require additional geologic data and more comprehensive computer simulations of individual earthquakes.

Earthquakes-Rattling the Earth's Plumbing System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sneed, Michelle; Galloway, Devin L.; Cunningham, William L.

2003-01-01

Hydrogeologic responses to earthquakes have been known for decades, and have occurred both close to, and thousands of miles from earthquake epicenters. Water wells have become turbid, dry or begun flowing, discharge of springs and ground water to streams has increased and new springs have formed, and well and surface-water quality have become degraded as a result of earthquakes. Earthquakes affect our Earth’s intricate plumbing system—whether you live near the notoriously active San Andreas Fault in California, or far from active faults in Florida, an earthquake near or far can affect you and the water resources you depend on.

Magmatic unrest beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, D.P.; Prejean, S.

2005-01-01

Mammoth Mountain, which stands on the southwest rim of Long Valley caldera in eastern California, last erupted ???57,000 years BP. Episodic volcanic unrest detected beneath the mountain since late 1979, however, emphasizes that the underlying volcanic system is still active and capable of producing future volcanic eruptions. The unrest symptoms include swarms of small (M ??? 3) earthquakes, spasmodic bursts (rapid-fire sequences of brittle-failure earthquakes with overlapping coda), long-period (LP) and very-long-period (VLP) volcanic earthquakes, ground deformation, diffuse emission of magmatic CO2, and fumarole gases with elevated 3He/4He ratios. Spatial-temporal relations defined by the multi-parameter monitoring data together with earthquake source mechanisms suggest that this Mammoth Mountain unrest is driven by the episodic release of a volume of CO2-rich hydrous magmatic fluid derived from the upper reaches of a plexus of basaltic dikes and sills at mid-crustal depths (10-20 km). As the mobilized fluid ascends through the brittle-plastic transition zone and into overlying brittle crust, it triggers earthquake swarm activity and, in the case of the prolonged, 11-month-long earthquake swarm of 1989, crustal deformation and the onset of diffuse CO2 emissions. Future volcanic activity from this system would most likely involve steam explosions or small-volume, basaltic, strombolian or Hawaiaan style eruptions. The impact of such an event would depend critically on vent location and season.

An efficient repeating signal detector to investigate earthquake swarms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skoumal, Robert J.; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Currie, Brian S.

2016-08-01

Repetitive earthquake swarms have been recognized as key signatures in fluid injection induced seismicity, precursors to volcanic eruptions, and slow slip events preceding megathrust earthquakes. We investigate earthquake swarms by developing a Repeating Signal Detector (RSD), a computationally efficient algorithm utilizing agglomerative clustering to identify similar waveforms buried in years of seismic recordings using a single seismometer. Instead of relying on existing earthquake catalogs of larger earthquakes, RSD identifies characteristic repetitive waveforms by rapidly identifying signals of interest above a low signal-to-noise ratio and then grouping based on spectral and time domain characteristics, resulting in dramatically shorter processing time than more exhaustive autocorrelation approaches. We investigate seismicity in four regions using RSD: (1) volcanic seismicity at Mammoth Mountain, California, (2) subduction-related seismicity in Oaxaca, Mexico, (3) induced seismicity in Central Alberta, Canada, and (4) induced seismicity in Harrison County, Ohio. In each case, RSD detects a similar or larger number of earthquakes than existing catalogs created using more time intensive methods. In Harrison County, RSD identifies 18 seismic sequences that correlate temporally and spatially to separate hydraulic fracturing operations, 15 of which were previously unreported. RSD utilizes a single seismometer for earthquake detection which enables seismicity to be quickly identified in poorly instrumented regions at the expense of relying on another method to locate the new detections. Due to the smaller computation overhead and success at distances up to ~50 km, RSD is well suited for real-time detection of low-magnitude earthquake swarms with permanent regional networks.

Proceedings of the 11th United States-Japan natural resources panel for earthquake research, Napa Valley, California, November 16–18, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Detweiler, Shane; Pollitz, Fred

2017-10-18

The UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced research toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Eleventh Joint meeting was extremely beneficial in furthering cooperation and deepening understanding of problems common to both Japan and the United States.The meeting included productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation and modeling of earthquake processes. Regarding the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, the Panel recognizes that further efforts are necessary to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake risk through close collaboration and focused discussions at the 12th UJNR meeting.

Simulating Earthquakes for Science and Society: New Earthquake Visualizations Ideal for Use in Science Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Groot, R. M.; Benthien, M. L.

2006-12-01

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has been developing groundbreaking computer modeling capabilities for studying earthquakes. These visualizations were initially shared within the scientific community but have recently have gained visibility via television news coverage in Southern California. These types of visualizations are becoming pervasive in the teaching and learning of concepts related to earth science. Computers have opened up a whole new world for scientists working with large data sets, and students can benefit from the same opportunities (Libarkin &Brick, 2002). Earthquakes are ideal candidates for visualization products: they cannot be predicted, are completed in a matter of seconds, occur deep in the earth, and the time between events can be on a geologic time scale. For example, the southern part of the San Andreas fault has not seen a major earthquake since about 1690, setting the stage for an earthquake as large as magnitude 7.7 -- the "big one." Since no one has experienced such an earthquake, visualizations can help people understand the scale of such an event. Accordingly, SCEC has developed a revolutionary simulation of this earthquake, with breathtaking visualizations that are now being distributed. According to Gordin and Pea (1995), theoretically visualization should make science accessible, provide means for authentic inquiry, and lay the groundwork to understand and critique scientific issues. This presentation will discuss how the new SCEC visualizations and other earthquake imagery achieve these results, how they fit within the context of major themes and study areas in science communication, and how the efficacy of these tools can be improved.

Earthquakes: Recurrence and Interoccurrence Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.; Yakovlev, G.; Goltz, C.; Newman, W. I.

2008-04-01

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.

Source parameters of the 2014 Ms6.5 Ludian earthquake sequence and their implications on the seismogenic structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.

2015-12-01

On August 3, 2014, an Ms6.5 earthquake struck Ludian county, Zhaotong city in Yunnan province, China. Although this earthquake is not very big, it caused abnormal severe damages. Thus, study on the causes of the serious damages of this moderate strong earthquake may help us to evaluate seismic hazards for similar earthquakes. Besides the factors which directly relate to the damages, such as site effects, quality of buildings, seismogenic structures and the characteristics of the mainshock and the aftershocks may also responsible for the seismic hazards. Since focal mechanism solution and centroid depth provide key information of earthquake source properties and tectonic stress field, and the focal depth is one of the most important parameters which control the damages of earthquakes, obtaining precise FMSs and focal depths of the Ludian earthquake sequence may help us to determine the detailed geometric features of the rupture fault and the seismogenic environment. In this work we obtained the FMSs and centroid depths of the Ludian earthquake and its Ms>3.0 aftershocks by the revised CAP method, and further verified some focal depths using the depth phase method. Combining the FMSs of the mainshock and the strong aftershocks, as well as their spatial distributions, and the seismogenic environment of the source region, we can make the following characteristics of the Ludian earthquake sequence and its seismogenic structure: (1) The Ludian earthquake is a left-lateral strike slip earthquake, with magnitude of about Mw6.1. The FMS of nodal plane I is 75o/56o/180o for strike, dip and rake angles, and 165o/90o/34ofor the other nodal plane. (2) The Ludian earthquake is very shallow with the optimum centroid depth of ~3 km, which is consistent with the strong ground shaking and the surface rupture observed by field survey and strengthens the damages of the Ludian earthquake. (3) The Ludian Earthquake should occur on the NNW trend BXF. Because two later aftershocks

The 2016 central Italy earthquake sequence: surface effects, fault model and triggering scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatzipetros, Alexandros; Pavlides, Spyros; Papathanassiou, George; Sboras, Sotiris; Valkaniotis, Sotiris; Georgiadis, George

2017-04-01

The results of fieldwork performed during the 2016 earthquake sequence around the karstic basins of Norcia and La Piana di Castelluccio, at an altitude of 1400 m, on the Monte Vettore (altitude 2476 m) and Vettoretto, as well as the three mapped seismogenic faults, striking NNW-SSW, are presented in this paper. Surface co-seismic ruptures were observed in the Vettore and Vettoretto segment of the fault for several kilometres ( 7 km) in the August earthquakes at high altitudes, and were re-activated and expanded northwards during the October earthquakes. Coseismic ruptures and the neotectonic Mt. Vettore fault zone were modelled in detail using images acquired from specifically planned UAV (drone) flights. Ruptures, typically with displacement of up to 20 cm, were observed after the August event both in the scree and weathered mantle (elluvium), as well as the bedrock, consisting mainly of fragmented carbonate rocks with small tectonic surfaces. These fractures expanded and new ones formed during the October events, typically of displacements of up to 50 cm, although locally higher displacements of up to almost 2 m were observed. Hundreds of rock falls and landslides were mapped through satellite imagery, using pre- and post- earthquake Sentinel 2A images. Several of them were also verified in the field. Based on field mapping results and seismological information, the causative faults were modelled. The model consists of five seismogenic sources, each one associated with a strong event in the sequence. The visualisation of the seismogenic sources follows INGV's DISS standards for the Individual Seismogenic Sources (ISS) layer, while strike, dip and rake of the seismic sources are obtained from selected focal mechanisms. Based on this model, the ground deformation pattern was inferred, using Okada's dislocation solution formulae, which shows that the maximum calculated vertical displacement is 0.53 m. This is in good agreement with the statistical analysis of the

The California Hazards Institute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.

2006-12-01

California's abundant resources are linked with its natural hazards. Earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, fires, and droughts afflict the state regularly. These events have the potential to become great disasters, like the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906, that overwhelm the capacity of society to respond. At such times, the fabric of civic life is frayed, political leadership is tested, economic losses can dwarf available resources, and full recovery can take decades. A patchwork of Federal, state and local programs are in place to address individual hazards, but California lacks effective coordination to forecast, prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from, the harmful effects of natural disasters. Moreover, we do not know enough about the frequency, size, time, or locations where they may strike, nor about how the natural environment and man-made structures would respond. As California's population grows and becomes more interdependent, even moderate events have the potential to trigger catastrophes. Natural hazards need not become natural disasters if they are addressed proactively and effectively, rather than reactively. The University of California, with 10 campuses distributed across the state, has world-class faculty and students engaged in research and education in all fields of direct relevance to hazards. For that reason, the UC can become a world leader in anticipating and managing natural hazards in order to prevent loss of life and property and degradation of environmental quality. The University of California, Office of the President, has therefore established a new system-wide Multicampus Research Project, the California Hazards Institute (CHI), as a mechanism to research innovative, effective solutions for California. The CHI will build on the rich intellectual capital and expertise of the Golden State to provide the best available science, knowledge and tools for

Imaging the source region of the 2003 San Simeon earthquake within the weak Franciscan subduction complex, central California

USGS Publications Warehouse