Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.D.; Applegate, D.; Tuttle, M.P.; Williams, R.A.

2009-01-01

There is broad agreement in the scientific community that a continuing concern exists for a major destructive earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone. Many structures in Memphis, Tenn., St. Louis, Mo., and other communities in the central Mississippi River Valley region are vulnerable and at risk from severe ground shaking. This assessment is based on decades of research on New Madrid earthquakes and related phenomena by dozens of Federal, university, State, and consulting earth scientists. Considerable interest has developed recently from media reports that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down. These reports stem from published research using global positioning system (GPS) instruments with results of geodetic measurements of strain in the Earth's crust. Because of a lack of measurable strain at the surface in some areas of the seismic zone over the past 14 years, arguments have been advanced that there is no buildup of stress at depth within the New Madrid seismic zone and that the zone may no longer pose a significant hazard. As part of the consensus-building process used to develop the national seismic hazard maps, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop of experts in 2006 to evaluate the latest findings in earthquake hazards in the Eastern United States. These experts considered the GPS data from New Madrid available at that time that also showed little to no ground movement at the surface. The experts did not find the GPS data to be a convincing reason to lower the assessment of earthquake hazard in the New Madrid region, especially in light of the many other types of data that are used to construct the hazard assessment, several of which are described here.

Seismic gaps and source zones of recent large earthquakes in coastal Peru

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dewey, J.W.; Spence, W.

1979-01-01

The earthquakes of central coastal Peru occur principally in two distinct zones of shallow earthquake activity that are inland of and parallel to the axis of the Peru Trench. The interface-thrust (IT) zone includes the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 17 October 1966 and 3 October 1974. The coastal-plate interior (CPI) zone includes the great earthquake of 31 May 1970, and is located about 50 km inland of and 30 km deeper than the interface thrust zone. The occurrence of a large earthquake in one zone may not relieve elastic strain in the adjoining zone, thus complicating the application of the seismic gap concept to central coastal Peru. However, recognition of two seismic zones may facilitate detection of seismicity precursory to a large earthquake in a given zone; removal of probable CPI-zone earthquakes from plots of seismicity prior to the 1974 main shock dramatically emphasizes the high seismic activity near the rupture zone of that earthquake in the five years preceding the main shock. Other conclusions on the seismicity of coastal Peru that affect the application of the seismic gap concept to this region are: (1) Aftershocks of the great earthquakes of 1966, 1970, and 1974 occurred in spatially separated clusters. Some clusters may represent distinct small source regions triggered by the main shock rather than delimiting the total extent of main-shock rupture. The uncertainty in the interpretation of aftershock clusters results in corresponding uncertainties in estimates of stress drop and estimates of the dimensions of the seismic gap that has been filled by a major earthquake. (2) Aftershocks of the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 1966 and 1974 generally did not extend seaward as far as the Peru Trench. (3) None of the three great earthquakes produced significant teleseismic activity in the following month in the source regions of the other two earthquakes. The earthquake hypocenters that form the basis of this study were relocated using station

The 1945 Balochistan earthquake and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höchner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey; Zamora, Natalia

2014-05-01

Iran and Pakistan are countries quite frequently affected by destructive earthquakes. For instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30'000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, but a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Additionally, some recent publications raise the question of the possiblity of rare but huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We first model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights, and then generate various synthetic earthquake and tsunami catalogs including the possibility of large events in order to asses the tsunami hazard at the affected coastal regions. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by the use of an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast.

Areas of slip of recent earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Sánchez-Reyes, H. S.; Singh, S.; Ji, C.; Iglesias, A.; Perez-Campos, X.

2012-12-01

The Mexican subduction zone is unusual: the width of the seismogenic zone is relatively narrow and a large portion of the co-seismic slip generally occurs below the coast, ~ 45 to 80 km from the trench. The earthquake recurrence interval is relatively short and almost the entire length of the zone has experienced a large (Mw≥7.4) earthquake in the last 100 years (Singh et al., 1981). In this study we present detailed analysis of the areas of significant slip during several recent (last 20 years) large earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone. The most recent earthquake of 20 March 2012 (Mw7.4) occurred near the Guerrero/Oaxaca border. The slip was concentrated on the plate interface below land and the epicentral PGAs ranged between 0.2 and 0.7g. The updip portion of the plate interface had previously broken during the 25 Feb 1996 earthquake (Mw7.1), which was a slow earthquake and produced anomalously low PGAs (Iglesias et al., 2003). This indicates that in this region the area close to the trench is at least partially locked, with some earthquakes breaking the down-dip portion of the interface and others rupturing the up-dip portion. The Jalisco/Colima segment of the subduction zone seems to behave in a similar fashion. The 9 October 1995 (Mw 8.0) earthquake generated small accelerations relative to its size. The energy to moment ratio, E0/M0, is 4.2e-6 (Pérez-Campos, Singh and Beroza, 2003), a value similar to the Feb, 1996 earthquake. This value is low compared to other thrust events in the region. The earthquake also had the largest (Ms-Mw) disparity along the Mexican subduction zone, 7.4 vs 8.0. The event produced relatively large tsunami. On the contrary, the 3 June 1932 earthquake (Ms8.2, Mw8.0), that is believed to have broken the same segment of the subduction zone, appears to be "normal." Based on the available evidence, it may be concluded that the 1932 event broke a deeper patch of the plate interface relative to the 1995 event. The mode of rupture

Recovering the slip history of a scenario earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Perez-Campos, X.; Iglesias, A.; Cruz-Atienza, V.; Ji, C.; Legrand, D.; Husker, A. L.; Kostoglodov, V.; Valdes Gonzalez, C.

2011-12-01

The Guerrero segment of the Mexican subduction zone has not experienced a large earthquake for almost 100 years (Singh et al., 1981). Due to its proximity to Mexico City, which was devastated by an earthquake in the more distant Michoacan segment in 1985, it has been studied extensively in recent years. Silent slip events have been observed by a local GPS network (Kostoglodov et al. 2003) and seismic observations from a dense linear array of broadband seismometers (MASE) have provided detailed images of the crustal structure of this part of the subduction zone (see for example Pérez-Campos et al., 2008, Iglesias et al., 2010). Interestingly the part of the fault zone that is locked during the inter-seismic period is thought to reach up to or inland from the coast line. In the event of a large megathrust earthquake, this geometry could allow recordings from above the fault interface. These types of recordings can be critical to resolve the history of slip as a function of time on the fault plane during the earthquake. A well constrained model of slip-time history, together with other observations as mentioned above, could provide very valuable insights into earthquake physics and the earthquake cycle. In order to prepare the scientific response for such an event we generate a scenario earthquake in the Guerrero segment of the subduction zone. We calculate synthetic strong motion records, seismograms for global stations and static offsets on the Earth's surface. To simulate the real data available we add real noise, recorded during times of no earthquake, to the synthetic data. We use a simulated annealing inversion algorithm (Ji et al., 1999) to invert the different datasets and combinations thereof for the time-history of slip on the fault plane. We present the recovery of the slip model using the different datasets, as well as idealized datasets, investigating the expected and best possible levels of recovery.

Investigation of the TEC Changes in the vicinity of the Earthquake Preparation Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulukavak, Mustafa; Yalcinkaya, Mualla

2016-04-01

Recently, investigation of the anomalies in the ionosphere before the earthquake has taken too much attention. The Total Electron Content (TEC) data has been used to monitor the changes in the ionosphere. Hence, researchers use the TEC changes before the strong earthquakes to monitor the anomalies in the ionosphere. In this study, the GPS-TEC variations, obtained from the GNSS stations in the vicinity of the earthquake preparation zone, was investigated. Nidra earthquake (M6.5), which was occurred on the north-west of Greece on November 17th, 2015 (38.755°N, 20.552°E), was selected for this study. First, the equation proposed by Dobrovolsky et al. (1979) was used to calculate the radius of the earthquake preparation zone. International GNSS Service (IGS) stations in the region were classified with respect to the radius of the earthquake preparation zone. The observation data of each station was obtained from the Crustal Dynamics Data and Information System (CDDIS) archive to estimate GPS-TEC variations between 16 October 2015 and 16 December 2015. Global Ionosphere Maps (GIM) products, obtained from the IGS, was used to check the robustness of the GPS-TEC variations. Possible anomalies were analyzed for each GNSS station by using the 15-day moving median method. In order to analyze these pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies, we investigated three indices (Kp, F10.7 and Dst) related to the space weather conditions between 16 October 2015 and 16 December 2015. Solar and geomagnetic indices were obtained from The Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), The Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre (CSWFC), and the Data Analysis Center for Geomagnetism and Space Magnetism Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University (WDC). This study aims at investigating the possible effects of the earthquake on the TEC variations.

On the feedback between forearc morphotectonics and megathrust earthquakes in subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenau, M.; Oncken, O.

2008-12-01

An increasing number of observations suggest an intrinsic relationship between short- and long-term deformation processes in subduction zones. These include the global correlation between megathrust earthquake slip patterns with morphotectonic forearc features, the historical predominance of giant earthquakes (M > 9) along accretionary margins and the occurrence of (slow and shallow) tsunami earthquakes along erosive margins. To gain insight into the interplay between seismogenesis and tectonics in subduction settings we have developed a new modeling technique which joins analog and elastic dislocation approaches. Using elastoplastic wedges overlying a rate- and state-dependent interface, we demonstrate how analog earthquakes drive permanent wedge deformation consistent with the dynamic Coulomb wedge theory and how wedge deformation in turn controls basal "seismicity". During an experimental run, elastoplastic wedges evolve from those comparable to accretionary margins, characterized by plastic wedge shortening, to those mimicking erosive margins, characterized by minor plastic deformation. Permanent shortening localizes at the periphery of the "seismogenic" zone leading to a "morphotectonic" segmentation of the upper plate. Along with the evolving segmentation of the wedge, the magnitude- frequency relationship and recurrence distribution of analog earthquakes develop towards more periodic events of similar size (i.e. characteristic earthquakes). From the experiments we infer a positive feedback between short- and long-term deformation processes which tends to stabilize the spatiotemporal patterns of elastoplastic deformation in subduction settings. We suggest (1) that forearc anatomy reflects the distribution of seismic and aseismic slip at depth, (2) that morphotectonic segmentation assists the occurrence of more characteristic earthquakes, (3) that postseismic near-trench shortening relaxes coseismic compression by megathrust earthquakes and thus reduces

Source Mechanisms of Destructive Tsunamigenic Earthquakes occurred along the Major Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay; Ulutaş, Ergin

2016-04-01

Subduction zones, where an oceanic plate is subducted down into the mantle by tectonic forces, are potential tsunami locations. Many big, destructive and tsunamigenic earthquakes (Mw > 7.5) and high amplitude tsunami waves are observed along the major subduction zones particularly near Indonesia, Japan, Kuril and Aleutan Islands, Gulf of Alaska, Southern America. Not all earthquakes are tsunamigenic; in order to generate a tsunami, the earthquake must occur under or near the ocean, be large, and create significant vertical movements of the seafloor. It is also known that tsunamigenic earthquakes release their energy over a couple of minutes, have long source time functions and slow-smooth ruptures. In this study, we performed point-source inversions by using teleseismic long-period P- and SH- and broad-band P-waveforms recorded by the Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) and the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) stations. We obtained source mechanism parameters and finite-fault slip distributions of recent destructive ten earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7.5) by comparing the shapes and amplitudes of long period P- and SH-waveforms, recorded in the distance range of 30° - 90°, with synthetic waveforms. We further obtained finite-fault rupture histories of those earthquakes to determine the faulting area (fault length and width), maximum displacement, rupture duration and stress drop. We applied a new back-projection method that uses teleseismic P-waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source, and customized it to estimate the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic energy release of earthquakes. Inversion results exhibit that recent tsunamigenic earthquakes show dominantly thrust faulting mechanisms with small amount of strike-slip components. Their focal depths are also relatively shallow (h < 40 km). As an example, the September 16, 2015 Illapel (Chile) earthquake (Mw: 8.3; h: 26 km

Double seismic zone for deep earthquakes in the izu-bonin subduction zone.

PubMed

Iidaka, T; Furukawa, Y

1994-02-25

A double seismic zone for deep earthquakes was found in the Izu-Bonin region. An analysis of SP-converted phases confirms that the deep seismic zone consists of two layers separated by approximately 20 kilometers. Numerical modeling of the thermal structure implies that the hypocenters are located along isotherms of 500 degrees to 550 degrees C, which is consistent with the hypothesis that deep earthquakes result from the phase transition of metastable olivine to a high-pressure phase in the subducting slab.

A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, Daniel; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Michael

2012-01-01

We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

Continuous Record of Permeability inside the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Lian; Li, Haibing; Brodsky, Emily

2013-04-01

Faults are complex hydrogeological structures which include a highly permeable damage zone with fracture-dominated permeability. Since fractures are generated by earthquakes, we would expect that in the aftermath of a large earthquake, the permeability would be transiently high in a fault zone. Over time, the permeability may recover due to a combination of chemical and mechanical processes. However, the in situ fault zone hydrological properties are difficult to measure and have never been directly constrained on a fault zone immediately after a large earthquake. In this work, we use water level response to solid Earth tides to constrain the hydraulic properties inside the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone. The transmissivity and storage determine the phase and amplitude response of the water level to the tidal loading. By measuring phase and amplitude response, we can constrain the average hydraulic properties of the damage zone at 800-1200 m below the surface (~200-600 m from the principal slip zone). We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to evaluate the phase and amplitude responses and the corresponding errors for the largest semidiurnal Earth tide M2 in the time domain. The average phase lag is ~ 30o, and the average amplitude response is 6×10-7 strain/m. Assuming an isotropic, homogenous and laterally extensive aquifer, the average storage coefficient S is 2×10-4 and the average transmissivity T is 6×10-7 m2 using the measured phase and the amplitude response. Calculation for the hydraulic diffusivity D with D=T/S, yields the reported value of D is 3×10-3 m2/s, which is two orders of magnitude larger than pump test values on the Chelungpu Fault which is the site of the Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake. If the value is representative of the fault zone, then this means the hydrology processes should have an effect on the earthquake rupture process. This measurement is done through continuous monitoring and we could track the evolution for hydraulic properties

Role of H2O in Generating Subduction Zone Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasegawa, A.

2017-03-01

A dense nationwide seismic network and high seismic activity in Japan have provided a large volume of high-quality data, enabling high-resolution imaging of the seismic structures defining the Japanese subduction zones. Here, the role of H2O in generating earthquakes in subduction zones is discussed based mainly on recent seismic studies in Japan using these high-quality data. Locations of intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes and seismic velocity and attenuation structures within the subducted slab provide evidence that strongly supports intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes, although the details leading to the earthquake rupture are still poorly understood. Coseismic rotations of the principal stress axes observed after great megathrust earthquakes demonstrate that the plate interface is very weak, which is probably caused by overpressured fluids. Detailed tomographic imaging of the seismic velocity structure in and around plate boundary zones suggests that interplate coupling is affected by local fluid overpressure. Seismic tomography studies also show the presence of inclined sheet-like seismic low-velocity, high-attenuation zones in the mantle wedge. These may correspond to the upwelling flow portion of subduction-induced secondary convection in the mantle wedge. The upwelling flows reach the arc Moho directly beneath the volcanic areas, suggesting a direct relationship. H2O originally liberated from the subducted slab is transported by this upwelling flow to the arc crust. The H2O that reaches the crust is overpressured above hydrostatic values, weakening the surrounding crustal rocks and decreasing the shear strength of faults, thereby inducing shallow inland earthquakes. These observations suggest that H2O expelled from the subducting slab plays an important role in generating subduction zone earthquakes both within the subduction zone itself and within the magmatic arc occupying its hanging wall.

Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model.

PubMed

Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin

2013-01-01

Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shimin

2013-01-01

Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region. PMID:23878524

Continuous permeability measurements record healing inside the Wenchuan earthquake fault zone.

PubMed

Xue, Lian; Li, Hai-Bing; Brodsky, Emily E; Xu, Zhi-Qing; Kano, Yasuyuki; Wang, Huan; Mori, James J; Si, Jia-Liang; Pei, Jun-Ling; Zhang, Wei; Yang, Guang; Sun, Zhi-Ming; Huang, Yao

2013-06-28

Permeability controls fluid flow in fault zones and is a proxy for rock damage after an earthquake. We used the tidal response of water level in a deep borehole to track permeability for 18 months in the damage zone of the causative fault of the 2008 moment magnitude 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The unusually high measured hydraulic diffusivity of 2.4 × 10(-2) square meters per second implies a major role for water circulation in the fault zone. For most of the observation period, the permeability decreased rapidly as the fault healed. The trend was interrupted by abrupt permeability increases attributable to shaking from remote earthquakes. These direct measurements of the fault zone reveal a process of punctuated recovery as healing and damage interact in the aftermath of a major earthquake.

Strategies for rapid global earthquake impact estimation: the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, D.J.

2013-01-01

This chapter summarizes the state-of-the-art for rapid earthquake impact estimation. It details the needs and challenges associated with quick estimation of earthquake losses following global earthquakes, and provides a brief literature review of various approaches that have been used in the past. With this background, the chapter introduces the operational earthquake loss estimation system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) known as PAGER (for Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response). It also details some of the ongoing developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models to better supplement the operational empirical models, and to produce value-added web content for a variety of PAGER users.

Continuous Record of Permeability inside the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Li, H.; Brodsky, E. E.; Wang, H.; Pei, J.

2012-12-01

Faults are complex hydrogeological structures which include a highly permeable damage zone with fracture-dominated permeability. Since fractures are generated by earthquakes, we would expect that in the aftermath of a large earthquake, the permeability would be transiently high in a fault zone. Over time, the permeability may recover due to a combination of chemical and mechanical processes. However, the in situ fault zone hydrological properties are difficult to measure and have never been directly constrained on a fault zone immediately after a large earthquake. In this work, we use water level response to solid Earth tides to constrain the hydraulic properties inside the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone. The transmissivity and storage determine the phase and amplitude response of the water level to the tidal loading. By measuring phase and amplitude response, we can constrain the average hydraulic properties of the damage zone at 800-1200 m below the surface (˜200-600 m from the principal slip zone). We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to evaluate the phase and amplitude responses and the corresponding errors for the largest semidiurnal Earth tide M2 in the time domain. The average phase lag is ˜30°, and the average amplitude response is 6×10-7 strain/m. Assuming an isotropic, homogenous and laterally extensive aquifer, the average storage coefficient S is 2×10-4 and the average transmissivity T is 6×10-7 m2 using the measured phase and the amplitude response. Calculation for the hydraulic diffusivity D with D=T/S, yields the reported value of D is 3×10-3 m2/s, which is two orders of magnitude larger than pump test values on the Chelungpu Fault which is the site of the Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake. If the value is representative of the fault zone, then this means the hydrology processes should have an effect on the earthquake rupture process. This measurement is done through continuous monitoring and we could track the evolution for hydraulic properties

Global earthquake fatalities and population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, Thomas L.; Savage, James C.

2013-01-01

Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

Slab1.0: A three-dimensional model of global subduction zone geometries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, Gavin P.; Wald, David J.; Johnson, Rebecca L.

2012-01-01

We describe and present a new model of global subduction zone geometries, called Slab1.0. An extension of previous efforts to constrain the two-dimensional non-planar geometry of subduction zones around the focus of large earthquakes, Slab1.0 describes the detailed, non-planar, three-dimensional geometry of approximately 85% of subduction zones worldwide. While the model focuses on the detailed form of each slab from their trenches through the seismogenic zone, where it combines data sets from active source and passive seismology, it also continues to the limits of their seismic extent in the upper-mid mantle, providing a uniform approach to the definition of the entire seismically active slab geometry. Examples are shown for two well-constrained global locations; models for many other regions are available and can be freely downloaded in several formats from our new Slab1.0 website, http://on.doi.gov/d9ARbS. We describe improvements in our two-dimensional geometry constraint inversion, including the use of `average' active source seismic data profiles in the shallow trench regions where data are otherwise lacking, derived from the interpolation between other active source seismic data along-strike in the same subduction zone. We include several analyses of the uncertainty and robustness of our three-dimensional interpolation methods. In addition, we use the filtered, subduction-related earthquake data sets compiled to build Slab1.0 in a reassessment of previous analyses of the deep limit of the thrust interface seismogenic zone for all subduction zones included in our global model thus far, concluding that the width of these seismogenic zones is on average 30% larger than previous studies have suggested.

Triggered Slow Slip and Afterslip on the Southern Hikurangi Subduction Zone Following the Kaikōura Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, Laura M.; Hreinsdóttir, Sigrún; Ellis, Susan; Hamling, Ian; D'Anastasio, Elisabetta; Denys, Paul

2018-05-01

The 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake ruptured a complex sequence of strike-slip and reverse faults in New Zealand's northeastern South Island. In the months following the earthquake, time-dependent inversions of Global Positioning System and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data reveal up to 0.5 m of afterslip on the subduction interface beneath the northern South Island underlying the crustal faults that ruptured in the earthquake. This is clear evidence that the far southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone accommodates plate motion. The MW7.8 earthquake also triggered widespread slow slip over much of the subduction zone beneath the North Island. The triggered slow slip included immediate triggering of shallow (<15 km), short (2-3 weeks) slow slip events along much of the east coast, and deep (>30 km), long-term (>1 year) slow slip beneath the southern North Island. The southern Hikurangi slow slip was likely triggered by large (0.5-1.0 MPa) static Coulomb stress increases.

The earthquake potential of the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tuttle, Martitia P.; Schweig, Eugene S.; Sims, John D.; Lafferty, Robert H.; Wolf, Lorraine W.; Haynes, Marion L.

2002-01-01

The fault system responsible for New Madrid seismicity has generated temporally clustered very large earthquakes in A.D. 900 ± 100 years and A.D. 1450 ± 150 years as well as in 1811–1812. Given the uncertainties in dating liquefaction features, the time between the past three New Madrid events may be as short as 200 years and as long as 800 years, with an average of 500 years. This advance in understanding the Late Holocene history of the New Madrid seismic zone and thus, the contemporary tectonic behavior of the associated fault system was made through studies of hundreds of earthquake-induced liquefaction features at more than 250 sites across the New Madrid region. We have found evidence that prehistoric sand blows, like those that formed during the 1811–1812 earthquakes, are probably compound structures resulting from multiple earthquakes closely clustered in time or earthquake sequences. From the spatial distribution and size of sand blows and their sedimentary units, we infer the source zones and estimate the magnitudes of earthquakes within each sequence and thereby characterize the detailed behavior of the fault system. It appears that fault rupture was complex and that the central branch of the seismic zone produced very large earthquakes during the A.D. 900 and A.D. 1450 events as well as in 1811–1812. On the basis of a minimum recurrence rate of 200 years, we are now entering the period during which the next 1811–1812-type event could occur.

Tsunami potential assessment based on rupture zones, focal mechanisms and repeat times of strong earthquakes in the major Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agalos, Apostolos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Kijko, Andrzej; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Smit, Ansie; Triantafyllou, Ioanna

2016-04-01

In the major Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone, extended from Azores islands in the west to the easternmost Mediterranean Sea in the east, including the Marmara and Black Seas, a number of 22 tsunamigenic zones have been determined from historical and instrumental tsunami documentation. Although some tsunamis were produced by volcanic activity or landslides, the majority of them was generated by strong earthquakes. Since the generation of seismic tsunamis depends on several factors, like the earthquake size, focal depth and focal mechanism, the study of such parameters is of particular importance for the assessment of the potential for the generation of future tsunamis. However, one may not rule out the possibility for tsunami generation in areas outside of the 22 zones determined so far. For the Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone we have compiled a catalogue of strong, potentially tsunamigenic (focal depth less than 100 km) historical earthquakes from various data bases and other sources. The lateral areas of rupture zones of these earthquakes were determined. Rupture zone is the area where the strain after the earthquake has dropped substantially with respect the strain before the earthquake. Aftershock areas were assumed to determine areas of rupture zones for instrumental earthquakes. For historical earthquakes macroseismic criteria were used such as spots of higher-degree seismic intensity and of important ground failures. For the period of instrumental seismicity, focal mechanism solutions from CMT, EMMA and other data bases were selected for strong earthquakes. From the geographical distribution of seismic rupture zones and the corresponding focal mechanisms in the entire Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone we determined potentially tsunamigenic zones regardless they are known to have produced seismic tsunamis in the past or not. An attempt has been made to calculate in each one of such zones the repeat times of strong

Links Between Earthquake Characteristics and Subducting Plate Heterogeneity in the 2016 Pedernales Ecuador Earthquake Rupture Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2016-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

Detection of postseismic fault-zone collapse following the Landers earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massonnet, D.; Thatcher, W.; Vadon, H.

1996-01-01

Stress changes caused by fault movement in an earthquake induce transient aseismic crustal movements in the earthquake source region that continue for months to decades following large events. These motions reflect aseismic adjustments of the fault zone and/or bulk deformation of the surroundings in response to applied stresses, and supply information regarding the inelastic behaviour of the Earth's crust. These processes are imperfectly understood because it is difficult to infer what occurs at depth using only surface measurements, which are in general poorly sampled. Here we push satellite radar interferometry to near its typical artefact level, to obtain a map of the postseismic deformation field in the three years following the 28 June 1992 Landers, California earthquake. From the map, we deduce two distinct types of deformation: afterslip at depth on the fault that ruptured in the earthquake, and shortening normal to the fault zone. The latter movement may reflect the closure of dilatant cracks and fluid expulsion from a transiently over-pressured fault zone.

An atlas of ShakeMaps for selected global earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Trevor I.; Wald, David J.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Lin, Kuo-Wan; Earle, Paul S.; Marano, Kristin D.

2008-01-01

An atlas of maps of peak ground motions and intensity 'ShakeMaps' has been developed for almost 5,000 recent and historical global earthquakes. These maps are produced using established ShakeMap methodology (Wald and others, 1999c; Wald and others, 2005) and constraints from macroseismic intensity data, instrumental ground motions, regional topographically-based site amplifications, and published earthquake-rupture models. Applying the ShakeMap methodology allows a consistent approach to combine point observations with ground-motion predictions to produce descriptions of peak ground motions and intensity for each event. We also calculate an estimated ground-motion uncertainty grid for each earthquake. The Atlas of ShakeMaps provides a consistent and quantitative description of the distribution and intensity of shaking for recent global earthquakes (1973-2007) as well as selected historic events. As such, the Atlas was developed specifically for calibrating global earthquake loss estimation methodologies to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) Project. PAGER will employ these loss models to rapidly estimate the impact of global earthquakes as part of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center's earthquake-response protocol. The development of the Atlas of ShakeMaps has also led to several key improvements to the Global ShakeMap system. The key upgrades include: addition of uncertainties in the ground motion mapping, introduction of modern ground-motion prediction equations, improved estimates of global seismic-site conditions (VS30), and improved definition of stable continental region polygons. Finally, we have merged all of the ShakeMaps in the Atlas to provide a global perspective of earthquake ground shaking for the past 35 years, allowing comparison with probabilistic hazard maps. The online Atlas and supporting databases can be found at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/shakemap/atlas.php/.

The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross

2014-05-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and Model • Global Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation Model • Global Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic

Detection of postseismic fault-zone collapse following the Landers earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massonnet, Didier; Thatcher, Wayne; Vadon, Hélèna

1996-08-01

STRESS changes caused by fault movement in an earthquake induce transient aseismic crustal movements in the earthquake source region that continue for months to decades following large events1-4. These motions reflect aseismic adjustments of the fault zone and/or bulk deformation of the surroundings in response to applied stresses2,5-7, and supply information regarding the inelastic behaviour of the Earth's crust. These processes are imperfectly understood because it is difficult to infer what occurs at depth using only surface measurements2, which are in general poorly sampled. Here we push satellite radar interferometry to near its typical artefact level, to obtain a map of the postseismic deformation field in the three years following the 28 June 1992 Landers, California earthquake. From the map, we deduce two distinct types of deformation: afterslip at depth on the fault that ruptured in the earthquake, and shortening normal to the fault zone. The latter movement may reflect the closure of dilatant cracks and fluid expulsion from a transiently over-pressured fault zone6-8.

Earthquakes, fluid pressures and rapid subduction zone metamorphism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viete, D. R.

2013-12-01

High-pressure/low-temperature (HP/LT) metamorphism is commonly incomplete, meaning that large tracts of rock can remain metastable at blueschist- and eclogite-facies conditions for timescales up to millions of years [1]. When HP/LT metamorphism does take place, it can occur over extremely short durations (<<1 Myr) [1-2]. HP/LT metamorphism must be associated with processes that allow large volumes of rock to remain unaffected over long periods of time, but then suddenly undergo localized metamorphism. Existing models for HP/LT metamorphism have focussed on the role of fluids in providing heat for metamorphism [2] or catalyzing metamorphic reactions [1]. Earthquakes in subduction zone settings can occur to depths of 100s of km. Metamorphic dehydration and the associated development of elevated pore pressures in HP/LT metamorphic rocks has been identified as a cause of earthquake activity at such great depths [3-4]. The process of fracturing/faulting significantly increases rock permeability, causing channelized fluid flow and dissipation of pore pressures [3-4]. Thus, deep subduction zone earthquakes are thought to reflect an evolution in fluid pressure, involving: (1) an initial increase in pore pressure by heating-related dehydration of subduction zone rocks, and (2) rapid relief of pore pressures by faulting and channelized flow. Models for earthquakes at depth in subduction zones have focussed on the in situ effects of dehydration and then sudden escape of fluids from the rock mass following fracturing [3-4]. On the other hand, existing models for rapid and incomplete metamorphism in subduction zones have focussed only on the effects of heating and/or hydration with the arrival of external fluids [1-2]. Significant changes in pressure over very short timescales should result in rapid mineral growth and/or disequilibrium texture development in response to overstepping of mineral reaction boundaries. The repeated process of dehydration-pore pressure development-earthquake

Has El Salvador Fault Zone produced M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes? The 1719 El Salvador earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canora, C.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Álvarez-Gómez, J.; Villamor, P.; Ínsua-Arévalo, J.; Alonso-Henar, J.; Capote, R.

2013-05-01

Historically, large earthquakes, Mw ≥ 7.0, in the Εl Salvador area have been attributed to activity in the Cocos-Caribbean subduction zone. Τhis is correct for most of the earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.5. However, recent paleoseismic evidence points to the existence of large earthquakes associated with rupture of the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, an Ε-W oriented strike slip fault system that extends for 150 km through central Εl Salvador. Τo calibrate our results from paleoseismic studies, we have analyzed the historical seismicity of the area. In particular, we suggest that the 1719 earthquake can be associated with paleoseismic activity evidenced in the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone. Α reinterpreted isoseismal map for this event suggests that the damage reported could have been a consequence of the rupture of Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, rather than rupture of the subduction zone. Τhe isoseismal is not different to other upper crustal earthquakes in similar tectonovolcanic environments. We thus challenge the traditional assumption that only the subduction zone is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 in this region. Τhis result has broad implications for future risk management in the region. Τhe potential occurrence of strong ground motion, significantly higher and closer to the Salvadorian populations that those assumed to date, must be considered in seismic hazard assessment studies in this area.

Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkinson, G.M.; Boore, D.M.

2003-01-01

Ground-motion relations for earthquakes that occur in subduction zones are an important input to seismic-hazard analyses in many parts of the world. In the Cascadia region (Washington, Oregon, northern California, and British Columbia), for example, there is a significant hazard from megathrust earthquakes along the subduction interface and from large events within the subducting slab. These hazards are in addition to the hazard from shallow earthquakes in the overlying crust. We have compiled a response spectra database from thousands of strong-motion recordings from events of moment magnitude (M) 5-8.3 occurring in subduction zones around the world, including both interface and in-slab events. The 2001 M 6.8 Nisqually and 1999 M 5.9 Satsop earthquakes are included in the database, as are many records from subduction zones in Japan (Kyoshin-Net data), Mexico (Guerrero data), and Central America. The size of the database is four times larger than that available for previous empirical regressions to determine ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes. The large dataset enables improved determination of attenuation parameters and magnitude scaling, for both interface and in-slab events. Soil response parameters are also better determined by the data. We use the database to develop global ground-motion relations for interface and in-slab earthquakes, using a maximum likelihood regression method. We analyze regional variability of ground-motion amplitudes across the global database and find that there are significant regional differences. In particular, amplitudes in Cascadia differ by more than a factor of 2 from those in Japan for the same magnitude, distance, event type, and National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) soil class. This is believed to be due to regional differences in the depth of the soil profile, which are not captured by the NEHRP site classification scheme. Regional correction factors to account for these differences are

The effect of segmented fault zones on earthquake rupture propagation and termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

A fundamental question in earthquake source physics is what can control the nucleation and termination of an earthquake rupture. Besides stress heterogeneities and variations in frictional properties, damaged fault zones (DFZs) that surround major strike-slip faults can contribute significantly to earthquake rupture propagation. Previous earthquake rupture simulations usually characterize DFZs as several-hundred-meter-wide layers with lower seismic velocities than host rocks, and find earthquake ruptures in DFZs can exhibit slip pulses and oscillating rupture speeds that ultimately enhance high-frequency ground motions. However, real DFZs are more complex than the uniform low-velocity structures, and show along-strike variations of damages that may be correlated with historical earthquake ruptures. These segmented structures can either prohibit or assist rupture propagation and significantly affect the final sizes of earthquakes. For example, recent dense array data recorded at the San Jacinto fault zone suggests the existence of three prominent DFZs across the Anza seismic gap and the south section of the Clark branch, while no prominent DFZs were identified near the ends of the Anza seismic gap. To better understand earthquake rupture in segmented fault zones, we will present dynamic rupture simulations that calculate the time-varying rupture process physically by considering the interactions between fault stresses, fault frictional properties, and material heterogeneities. We will show that whether an earthquake rupture can break through the intact rock outside the DFZ depend on the nucleation size of the earthquake and the rupture propagation distance in the DFZ. Moreover, material properties of the DFZ, stress conditions along the fault, and friction properties of the fault also have a critical impact on rupture propagation and termination. We will also present scenarios of San Jacinto earthquake ruptures and show the parameter space that is favorable for

The spatial distribution of earthquake stress rotations following large subduction zone earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2017-01-01

Rotations of the principal stress axes due to great subduction zone earthquakes have been used to infer low differential stress and near-complete stress drop. The spatial distribution of coseismic and postseismic stress rotation as a function of depth and along-strike distance is explored for three recent M ≥ 8.8 subduction megathrust earthquakes. In the down-dip direction, the largest coseismic stress rotations are found just above the Moho depth of the overriding plate. This zone has been identified as hosting large patches of large slip in great earthquakes, based on the lack of high-frequency radiated energy. The large continuous slip patches may facilitate near-complete stress drop. There is seismological evidence for high fluid pressures in the subducted slab around the Moho depth of the overriding plate, suggesting low differential stress levels in this zone due to high fluid pressure, also facilitating stress rotations. The coseismic stress rotations have similar along-strike extent as the mainshock rupture. Postseismic stress rotations tend to occur in the same locations as the coseismic stress rotations, probably due to the very low remaining differential stress following the near-complete coseismic stress drop. The spatial complexity of the observed stress changes suggests that an analytical solution for finding the differential stress from the coseismic stress rotation may be overly simplistic, and that modeling of the full spatial distribution of the mainshock static stress changes is necessary.

Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

PubMed

Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

2012-01-17

The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased

PubMed Central

Shearer, Peter M.; Stark, Philip B.

2012-01-01

The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences—if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past. PMID:22184228

Earthquake source parameters along the Hellenic subduction zone and numerical simulations of historical tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay

2012-04-01

We studied source mechanism parameters and slip distributions of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.0 occurred during 2000-2008 along the Hellenic subduction zone by using teleseismic P- and SH-waveform inversion methods. In addition, the major and well-known earthquake-induced Eastern Mediterranean tsunamis (e.g., 365, 1222, 1303, 1481, 1494, 1822 and 1948) were numerically simulated and several hypothetical tsunami scenarios were proposed to demonstrate the characteristics of tsunami waves, propagations and effects of coastal topography. The analogy of current plate boundaries, earthquake source mechanisms, various earthquake moment tensor catalogues and several empirical self-similarity equations, valid for global or local scales, were used to assume conceivable source parameters which constitute the initial and boundary conditions in simulations. Teleseismic inversion results showed that earthquakes along the Hellenic subduction zone can be classified into three major categories: [1] focal mechanisms of the earthquakes exhibiting E-W extension within the overriding Aegean plate; [2] earthquakes related to the African-Aegean convergence; and [3] focal mechanisms of earthquakes lying within the subducting African plate. Normal faulting mechanisms with left-lateral strike slip components were observed at the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone, and we suggest that they were probably concerned with the overriding Aegean plate. However, earthquakes involved in the convergence between the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean lithospheres indicated thrust faulting mechanisms with strike slip components, and they had shallow focal depths (h < 45 km). Deeper earthquakes mainly occurred in the subducting African plate, and they presented dominantly strike slip faulting mechanisms. Slip distributions on fault planes showed both complex and simple rupture propagations with respect to the variation of source mechanism and faulting geometry. We calculated low stress drop

Effect of Sediments on Rupture Dynamics of Shallow Subduction Zone Earthquakes and Tsunami Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, S.

2011-12-01

Low-velocity fault zones have long been recognized for crustal earthquakes by using fault-zone trapped waves and geodetic observations on land. However, the most pronounced low-velocity fault zones are probably in the subduction zones where sediments on the seafloor are being continuously subducted. In this study I focus on shallow subduction zone earthquakes; these earthquakes pose a serious threat to human society in their ability in generating large tsunamis. Numerous observations indicate that these earthquakes have unusually long rupture durations, low rupture velocities, and/or small stress drops near the trench. However, the underlying physics is unclear. I will use dynamic rupture simulations with a finite-element method to investigate the dynamic stress evolution on faults induced by both sediments and free surface, and its relations with rupture velocity and slip. I will also explore the effect of off-fault yielding of sediments on the rupture characteristics and seafloor deformation. As shown in Ma and Beroza (2008), the more compliant hanging wall combined with free surface greatly increases the strength drop and slip near the trench. Sediments in the subduction zone likely have a significant role in the rupture dynamics of shallow subduction zone earthquakes and tsunami generation.

The 2012 Mw5.6 earthquake in Sofia seismogenic zone - is it a slow earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raykova, Plamena; Solakov, Dimcho; Slavcheva, Krasimira; Simeonova, Stela; Aleksandrova, Irena

2017-04-01

Recently our understanding of tectonic faulting has been shaken by the discoveries of seismic tremor, low frequency earthquakes, slow slip events, and other models of fault slip. These phenomenas represent models of failure that were thought to be non-existent and theoretically impossible only a few years ago. Slow earthquakes are seismic phenomena in which the rupture of geological faults in the earth's crust occurs gradually without creating strong tremors. Despite the growing number of observations of slow earthquakes their origin remains unresolved. Studies show that the duration of slow earthquakes ranges from a few seconds to a few hundred seconds. The regular earthquakes with which most people are familiar release a burst of built-up stress in seconds, slow earthquakes release energy in ways that do little damage. This study focus on the characteristics of the Mw5.6 earthquake occurred in Sofia seismic zone on May 22nd, 2012. The Sofia area is the most populated, industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The Sofia seismic zone is located in South-western Bulgaria - the area with pronounce tectonic activity and proved crustal movement. In 19th century the city of Sofia (situated in the centre of the Sofia seismic zone) has experienced two strong earthquakes with epicentral intensity of 10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK64).The 2012 quake occurs in an area characterized by a long quiescence (of 95 years) for moderate events. Moreover, a reduced number of small earthquakes have also been registered in the recent past. The Mw5.6 earthquake is largely felt on the territory of Bulgaria and neighbouring countries. No casualties and severe injuries have been reported. Mostly moderate damages were observed in the cities of Pernik and Sofia and their surroundings. These observations could be assumed indicative for a

Aftereffects of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes: Potential Tsunami Hazards along the Japan Sea Coast.

PubMed

Minoura, Koji; Sugawara, Daisuke; Yamanoi, Tohru; Yamada, Tsutomu

2015-10-01

The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake is a typical subduction-zone earthquake and is the 4th largest earthquake after the beginning of instrumental observation of earthquakes in the 19th century. In fact, the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake displaced the northeast Japan island arc horizontally and vertically. The displacement largely changed the tectonic situation of the arc from compressive to tensile. The 9th century in Japan was a period of natural hazards caused by frequent large-scale earthquakes. The aseismic tsunamis that inflicted damage on the Japan Sea coast in the 11th century were related to the occurrence of massive earthquakes that represented the final stage of a period of high seismic activity. Anti-compressive tectonics triggered by the subduction-zone earthquakes induced gravitational instability, which resulted in the generation of tsunamis caused by slope failing at the arc-back-arc boundary. The crustal displacement after the 2011 earthquake infers an increased risk of unexpected local tsunami flooding in the Japan Sea coastal areas.

Viscoelastic shear zone model of a strike-slip earthquake cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, F.F.

2001-01-01

I examine the behavior of a two-dimensional (2-D) strike-slip fault system embedded in a 1-D elastic layer (schizosphere) overlying a uniform viscoelastic half-space (plastosphere) and within the boundaries of a finite width shear zone. The viscoelastic coupling model of Savage and Prescott [1978] considers the viscoelastic response of this system, in the absence of the shear zone boundaries, to an earthquake occurring within the upper elastic layer, steady slip beneath a prescribed depth, and the superposition of the responses of multiple earthquakes with characteristic slip occurring at regular intervals. So formulated, the viscoelastic coupling model predicts that sufficiently long after initiation of the system, (1) average fault-parallel velocity at any point is the average slip rate of that side of the fault and (2) far-field velocities equal the same constant rate. Because of the sensitivity to the mechanical properties of the schizosphere-plastosphere system (i.e., elastic layer thickness, plastosphere viscosity), this model has been used to infer such properties from measurements of interseismic velocity. Such inferences exploit the predicted behavior at a known time within the earthquake cycle. By modifying the viscoelastic coupling model to satisfy the additional constraint that the absolute velocity at prescribed shear zone boundaries is constant, I find that even though the time-averaged behavior remains the same, the spatiotemporal pattern of surface deformation (particularly its temporal variation within an earthquake cycle) is markedly different from that predicted by the conventional viscoelastic coupling model. These differences are magnified as plastosphere viscosity is reduced or as the recurrence interval of periodic earthquakes is lengthened. Application to the interseismic velocity field along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault suggests that the region behaves mechanically like a ???600-km-wide shear zone accommodating 50 mm/yr fault

Next-Level ShakeZoning for Earthquake Hazard Definition in Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louie, J. N.; Savran, W. H.; Flinchum, B. A.; Dudley, C.; Prina, N.; Pullammanappallil, S.; Pancha, A.

2011-12-01

We are developing "Next-Level ShakeZoning" procedures tailored for defining earthquake hazards in Nevada. The current Federally sponsored tools- the USGS hazard maps and ShakeMap, and FEMA HAZUS- were developed as statistical summaries to match earthquake data from California, Japan, and Taiwan. The 2008 Wells and Mogul events in Nevada showed in particular that the generalized statistical approach taken by ShakeMap cannot match actual data on shaking from earthquakes in the Intermountain West, even to first order. Next-Level ShakeZoning relies on physics and geology to define earthquake shaking hazards, rather than statistics. It follows theoretical and computational developments made over the past 20 years, to capitalize on detailed and specific local data sets to more accurately model the propagation and amplification of earthquake waves through the multiple geologic basins of the Intermountain West. Excellent new data sets are now available for Las Vegas Valley. Clark County, Nevada has completed the nation's very first effort to map earthquake hazard class systematically through an entire urban area using Optim's SeisOpt° ReMi technique, which was adapted for large-scale data collection. Using the new Parcel Map in computing shaking in the Valley for scenario earthquakes is crucial for obtaining realistic predictions of ground motions. In an educational element of the project, a dozen undergraduate students have been computing 50 separate earthquake scenarios affecting Las Vegas Valley, using the Next-Level ShakeZoning process. Despite affecting only the upper 30 meters, the Vs30 geotechnical shear-velocity from the Parcel Map shows clear effects on 3-d shaking predictions computed so far at frequencies from 0.1 Hz up to 1.0 Hz. The effect of the Parcel Map on even the 0.1-Hz waves is prominent even with the large mismatch of wavelength to geotechnical depths. Amplifications and de-amplifications affected by the Parcel Map exceed a factor of two, and are

The Himalayan Seismogenic Zone: A New Frontier for Earthquake Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Larry; Hubbard, Judith; Karplus, Marianne; Klemperer, Simon; Sato, Hiroshi

2016-04-01

The Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake that occurred on April 25 of this year was a dramatic reminder that great earthquakes are not restricted to the large seismogenic zones associated with subduction of oceanic lithosphere. Not only does Himalayan seismogenesis represents important scientific and societal issues in its own right, it constitutes a reference for evaluating general models of the earthquake cycle derived from the studies of the oceanic subduction systems. This presentation reports results of a Mini-Workshop sponsored by the GeoPrisms project that was held in conjunction with the American Geophysical Union on December 15, 2015, designed to organize a new initiative to study the great Himalaya earthquake machine. The Himalayan seismogenic zone shares with its oceanic counterparts a number of fundamental questions, including: a) What controls the updip and downdip limits of rupture? b) What controls the lateral segmentation of rupture zones (and hence magnitude)? c) What is the role of fluids in facilitating slip and or rupture? d) What nucleates rupture (e..g. asperities?)? e) What physical properties can be monitored as precursors to future events? f) How effectively can the radiation pattern of future events be modeled? g) How can a better understanding of Himalayan rupture be translated into more cost effective preparations for the next major event in this region? However the underthrusting of continental, as opposed to oceanic, lithosphere in the Himalayas frames these questions in a very different context: h) How does the greater thickness and weaker rheology of continental crust/lithosphere affect locking of the seismogenic zone? i) How does the different thermal structure of continental vs oceanic crust affect earthquake geodynamics? j) Are fluids a significant factor in intercontinental thrusting? k) How does the basement morphology of underthrust continental crust affect locking/creep, and how does it differ from the oceanic case? l) What is the

An investigation on seismo-ionospheric precursors in various earthquake zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Y.; Liu, J. G.; Chen, M.

2011-12-01

Y. C. Su1, J. Y. Liu1 and M. Q. Chen1 1Institute of Space Science, National Central University, Chung-Li,Taiwan. This paper examines the relationships between the ionosphere and earthquakes occurring in different earthquake zones e.g. Malaysia area, Tibet plateau, mid-ocean ridge, Andes, etc., to reveal the possible seismo-ionospheric precursors for these area. Because the lithology, focal mechanism of earthquakes and electrodynamics in the ionosphere at different area are different, it is probable to have diverse ionospheric reactions before large earthquakes occurring in these areas. In addition to statistical analyses on increase or decrease anomalies of the ionospheric electron density few days before large earthquakes, we focus on the seismo-ionospheric precursors for oceanic and land earthquakes as well as for earthquakes with different focal mechanisms.

Locking of the Chile subduction zone controlled by fluid pressure before the 2010 earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, Marcos; Haberland, Christian; Oncken, Onno; Rietbrock, Andreas; Angiboust, Samuel; Heidbach, Oliver

2014-04-01

Constraints on the potential size and recurrence time of strong subduction-zone earthquakes come from the degree of locking between the down-going and overriding plates, in the period between large earthquakes. In many cases, this interseismic locking degree correlates with slip during large earthquakes or is attributed to variations in fluid content at the plate interface. Here we use geodetic and seismological data to explore the links between pore-fluid pressure and locking patterns at the subduction interface ruptured during the magnitude 8.8 Chile earthquake in 2010. High-resolution three-dimensional seismic tomography reveals variations in the ratio of seismic P- to S-wave velocities (Vp/Vs) along the length of the subduction-zone interface. High Vp/Vs domains, interpreted as zones of elevated pore-fluid pressure, correlate spatially with parts of the plate interface that are poorly locked and slip aseismically. In contrast, low Vp/Vs domains, interpreted as zones of lower pore-fluid pressure, correlate with locked parts of the plate interface, where unstable slip and earthquakes occur. Variations in pore-fluid pressure are caused by the subduction and dehydration of a hydrothermally altered oceanic fracture zone. We conclude that variations in pore-fluid pressure at the plate interface control the degree of interseismic locking and therefore the slip distribution of large earthquake ruptures.

Unrevealing the History of Earthquakes and Tsunamis of the Mexican Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Castillo-Aja, M. D. R.; Cruz, S.; Corona, N.; Rangel Velarde, V.; Lagos, M.

2014-12-01

The great earthquakes and tsunamis of the last decades in Sumatra, Chile, and Japan remind us of the need for expanding the record of history of such catastrophic events. It can't be argued that even countries with extensive historical documents and tsunami sand deposits still have unsolved questions on the frequency of them, and the variables that control them along subduction zones. We present here preliminary results of a combined approach using historical archives and multiple proxies of the sedimentary record to unrevealing the history of possible great earthquakes and their tsunamis on the Mexican Subduction zone. The Mexican subduction zone extends over 1000 km long and little is known if the entire subduction zone along the Middle American Trench behaves as one enormous unit rather than in segments that rupture at different frequencies and with different strengths (as the short instrumental record shows). We searched on historical archives and earthquake databases to distinguish tsunamigenic events registered from the 16th century to now along the Jalisco-Colima and Guerrero-Oaxaca coastal stretches. The historical data referred are mostly from the 19th century on since the population on the coast was scarce before. We found 21 earthquakes with tsunamigenic potential, and of those 16 with doubtful to definitive accompanying tsunami on the Jalisco-Colima coast, and 31 tsunamigenic earthquakes on the Oaxaca-Guerrero coast. Evidence of great earthquakes and their tsunamis from the sedimentary record are scarce, perhaps due poor preservation of tsunami deposits in this tropical environment. Nevertheless, we have found evidence for a number of tsunamigenic events, both historical and prehistorical, 1932 and 1400 AD on Jalisco, and 3400 BP, 1789 AD, 1979 ad, and 1985 AD on Guerrero-Oaxaca. We continue working and a number of events are still to be dated. This work would aid in elucidating the history of earthquakes and tsunamis on the Mexican subduction zone.

Global Examination of Triggered Tectonic Tremor following the 2017 Mw8.1 Tehuantepec Earthquake in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, K.; Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Tang, V.; Klaeser, R. D.; Mattia, M.; Van der Lee, S.

2017-12-01

Triggered tremor is one type of slow earthquake that activated by teleseismic surfaces waves of large magnitude earthquake. Observations of triggered tremor can help to evaluate the background ambient tremor rate and slow slip events in the surrounding region. The Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec earthquake in Mexico is an ideal tremor-triggering candidate for a global search for triggered tremor. Here, we examine triggered tremor globally following the M8.1 event and model the tremor-triggering potential. We examine 7,000 seismic traces and found a widely spread triggered tremor along the western coast of the North America occur during the surface waves of the Mw 8.1 event. Triggered tremor appeared in the San Jacinto Fault, San Andreas Fault around Parkfield, and Calaveras Fault in California, in Vancouver Island in Cascadia subduction zone, in Queen Charlotte Margin and Eastern Denali Fault in Canada, and in Alaska and Aleutian Arc. In addition, we observe a newly found triggered tremor source in Mt. Etna in Sicily Island, Italy. However, we do not find clear triggered tremor evidences in the tremor active regions in Japan, Taiwan, and in New Zealand. We model tremor-triggering potential at the triggering earthquake source and triggered tremor sources. Our modeling results suggest the source parameters of the M8.1 triggering events and the stress at the triggered fault zone are two critical factors to control tremor-triggering threshold.

Silica precipitation potentially controls earthquake recurrence in seismogenic zones.

PubMed

Saishu, Hanae; Okamoto, Atsushi; Otsubo, Makoto

2017-10-17

Silica precipitation is assumed to play a significant role in post-earthquake recovery of the mechanical and hydrological properties of seismogenic zones. However, the relationship between the widespread quartz veins around seismogenic zones and earthquake recurrence is poorly understood. Here we propose a novel model of quartz vein formation associated with fluid advection from host rocks and silica precipitation in a crack, in order to quantify the timescale of crack sealing. When applied to sets of extensional quartz veins around the Nobeoka Thrust of SW Japan, an ancient seismogenic splay fault, our model indicates that a fluid pressure drop of 10-25 MPa facilitates the formation of typical extensional quartz veins over a period of 6.6 × 10 0 -5.6 × 10 1 years, and that 89%-100% of porosity is recovered within ~3 × 10 2 years. The former and latter sealing timescales correspond to the extensional stress period (~3 × 10 1 years) and the recurrence interval of megaearthquakes in the Nankai Trough (~3 × 10 2 years), respectively. We therefore suggest that silica precipitation in the accretionary wedge controls the recurrence interval of large earthquakes in subduction zones.

Dietary attitudes and behaviours of women in China after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in three seismically different zones.

PubMed

Hu, Ping; Han, Ling-Li; Hou, Feng-Gang; Xu, Xiang-Long; Sharma, Manoj; Zhao, Yong

2016-12-01

The sudden occurrence of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake not only devastated people's health, but also may have impacted on the psychological and dietary attitudes and behaviours of the survivors. Although the influence of natural disaster on people's health has been extensively investigated, there is a lack of information about the effects on people's dietary attitudes and behaviours. Our aim was to evaluate the influence of the Wenchuan earthquake on the dietary attitudes and behaviours of adult women from different zones of China in July 2008. 736 women, aged 18-55 years old, were randomly selected and interviewed after the earthquake. Women were selected from three zones: the earthquake zone (n=206), the shaking zone (n=326), and the non-seismic zone (n=204). Although nutrition knowledge mean scores of women in the three zones were relatively low, the women in the earthquake zone became more vigilant about the nutritional value and acceptability of food than women in the other two zones. Nevertheless, women in the earthquake zone also developed some arguably untoward, if understandable, behaviour after the disaster. They increased their consumption and tendency to stock instant food and snack items. That said, these findings were modulated by other factors such as age, residence, Body Mass Index (BMI), and nutrition knowledge itself, as were post-earthquake eating behaviours, as judged by the ordinal logistic regression analyses performed. The major Wenchuan earthquake was associated with differentials in dietary attitudes and behaviours among women by seismic zone.

Near-surface versus fault zone damage following the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake: Observation and simulation of repeating earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Furumura, Takashi; Rubinstein, Justin L.

2015-01-01

We observe crustal damage and its subsequent recovery caused by the 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan. Analysis of repeating earthquakes in Hualien region, ~70 km east of the Chi-Chi earthquake, shows a remarkable change in wave propagation beginning in the year 2000, revealing damage within the fault zone and distributed across the near surface. We use moving window cross correlation to identify a dramatic decrease in the waveform similarity and delays in the S wave coda. The maximum delay is up to 59 ms, corresponding to a 7.6% velocity decrease averaged over the wave propagation path. The waveform changes on either side of the fault are distinct. They occur in different parts of the waveforms, affect different frequencies, and the size of the velocity reductions is different. Using a finite difference method, we simulate the effect of postseismic changes in the wavefield by introducing S wave velocity anomaly in the fault zone and near the surface. The models that best fit the observations point to pervasive damage in the near surface and deep, along-fault damage at the time of the Chi-Chi earthquake. The footwall stations show the combined effect of near-surface and the fault zone damage, where the velocity reduction (2–7%) is twofold to threefold greater than the fault zone damage observed in the hanging wall stations. The physical models obtained here allow us to monitor the temporal evolution and recovering process of the Chi-Chi fault zone damage.

GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, A.

2009-04-01

Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David

2010-01-01

We analyzed mortality rates of earthquakes worldwide and developed a country/region-specific empirical model for earthquake fatality estimation within the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is defined as total killed divided by total population exposed at specific shaking intensity level. The total fatalities for a given earthquake are estimated by multiplying the number of people exposed at each shaking intensity level by the fatality rates for that level and then summing them at all relevant shaking intensities. The fatality rate is expressed in terms of a two-parameter lognormal cumulative distribution function of shaking intensity. The parameters are obtained for each country or a region by minimizing the residual error in hindcasting the total shaking-related deaths from earthquakes recorded between 1973 and 2007. A new global regionalization scheme is used to combine the fatality data across different countries with similar vulnerability traits.

Characterizing the structural maturity of fault zones using high-resolution earthquake locations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrin, C.; Waldhauser, F.; Scholz, C. H.

2017-12-01

We use high-resolution earthquake locations to characterize the three-dimensional structure of active faults in California and how it evolves with fault structural maturity. We investigate the distribution of aftershocks of several recent large earthquakes that occurred on immature faults (i.e., slow moving and small cumulative displacement), such as the 1992 (Mw7.3) Landers and 1999 (Mw7.1) Hector Mine events, and earthquakes that occurred on mature faults, such as the 1984 (Mw6.2) Morgan Hill and 2004 (Mw6.0) Parkfield events. Unlike previous studies which typically estimated the width of fault zones from the distribution of earthquakes perpendicular to the surface fault trace, we resolve fault zone widths with respect to the 3D fault surface estimated from principal component analysis of local seismicity. We find that the zone of brittle deformation around the fault core is narrower along mature faults compared to immature faults. We observe a rapid fall off of the number of events at a distance range of 70 - 100 m from the main fault surface of mature faults (140-200 m fault zone width), and 200-300 m from the fault surface of immature faults (400-600 m fault zone width). These observations are in good agreement with fault zone widths estimated from guided waves trapped in low velocity damage zones. The total width of the active zone of deformation surrounding the main fault plane reach 1.2 km and 2-4 km for mature and immature faults, respectively. The wider zone of deformation presumably reflects the increased heterogeneity in the stress field along complex and discontinuous faults strands that make up immature faults. In contrast, narrower deformation zones tend to align with well-defined fault planes of mature faults where most of the deformation is concentrated. Our results are in line with previous studies suggesting that surface fault traces become smoother, and thus fault zones simpler, as cumulative fault slip increases.

Monochromatic body waves excited by great subduction zone earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ihmlé, Pierre F.; Madariaga, Raúl

Large quasi-monochromatic body waves were excited by the 1995 Chile Mw=8.1 and by the 1994 Kurile Mw=8.3 events. They are observed on vertical/radial component seismograms following the direct P and Pdiff arrivals, at all azimuths. We devise a slant stack algorithm to characterize the source of the oscillations. This technique aims at locating near-source isotropic scatterers using broadband data from global networks. For both events, we find that the oscillations emanate from the trench. We show that these monochromatic waves are due to localized oscillations of the water column. Their period corresponds to the gravest ID mode of a water layer for vertically traveling compressional waves. We suggest that these monochromatic body waves may yield additional constraints on the source process of great subduction zone earthquakes.

Apparent stress, fault maturity and seismic hazard for normal-fault earthquakes at subduction zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choy, G.L.; Kirby, S.H.

2004-01-01

The behavior of apparent stress for normal-fault earthquakes at subduction zones is derived by examining the apparent stress (?? a = ??Es/Mo, where E s is radiated energy and Mo is seismic moment) of all globally distributed shallow (depth, ?? 1 MPa) are also generally intraslab, but occur where the lithosphere has just begun subduction beneath the overriding plate. They usually occur in cold slabs near trenches where the direction of plate motion across the trench is oblique to the trench axis, or where there are local contortions or geometrical complexities of the plate boundary. Lower ??a (< 1 MPa) is associated with events occurring at the outer rise (OR) complex (between the OR and the trench axis), as well as with intracrustal events occurring just landward of the trench. The average apparent stress of intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes is considerably higher than the average apparent stress of interplate-thrust-fault earthquakes. In turn, the average ?? a of strike-slip earthquakes in intraoceanic environments is considerably higher than that of intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes. The variation of average ??a with focal mechanism and tectonic regime suggests that the level of ?? a is related to fault maturity. Lower stress drops are needed to rupture mature faults such as those found at plate interfaces that have been smoothed by large cumulative displacements (from hundreds to thousands of kilometres). In contrast, immature faults, such as those on which intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes generally occur, are found in cold and intact lithosphere in which total fault displacement has been much less (from hundreds of metres to a few kilometres). Also, faults on which high ??a oceanic strike-slip earthquakes occur are predominantly intraplate or at evolving ends of transforms. At subduction zones, earthquakes occurring on immature faults are likely to be more hazardous as they tend to generate higher amounts of radiated energy per unit of moment than

Empirical relationships between instrumental ground motions and observed intensities for two great Chilean subduction zone earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cilia, M. G.; Baker, L. M.

2015-12-01

We determine empirical relationships between instrumental peak ground motions and observed intensities for two great Chilean subduction earthquakes: the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule earthquake and the 2014 Mw8.2 Iquique earthquake. Both occurred immediately offshore on the primary plate boundary interface between the Nazca and South America plates. They are among the largest earthquakes to be instrumentally recorded; the 2010 Maule event is the second largest earthquake to produce strong motion recordings. Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs) are used to reconstruct the distribution of shaking for historical earthquakes by using intensities estimated from contemporary accounts. Most great (M>8) earthquakes, like these, occur within subduction zones, yet few GMICEs exist for subduction earthquakes. It is unclear whether GMICEs developed for active crustal regions, such as California, can be scaled up to the large M of subduction zone events, or if new data sets must be analyzed to develop separate subduction GMICEs. To address this question, we pair instrumental peak ground motions, both acceleration (PGA) and velocity (PGV), with intensities derived from onsite surveys of earthquake damage made in the weeks after the events and internet-derived felt reports. We fit a linear predictive equation between the geometric mean of the maximum PGA or PGV of the two horizontal components and intensity, using linear least squares. We use a weighting scheme to express the uncertainty of the pairings based on a station's proximity to the nearest intensity observation. The intensity data derived from the onsite surveys is a complete, high-quality investigation of the earthquake damage. We perform the computations using both the survey data and community decimal intensities (CDI) calculated from felt reports volunteered by citizens (USGS "Did You Feel It", DYFI) and compare the results. We compare the GMICEs we developed to the most widely used GMICEs from California and

Impact of cascadia subduction zone earthquake on the seismic evaluation criteria of bridges : technical report : SPR 770.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

A large magnitude long duration subduction earthquake is impending in the Pacific Northwest, which lies near the : Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Great subduction zone earthquakes are the largest earthquakes in the world and are the sole source : zo...

Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-02-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

Multivariate statistical analysis to investigate the subduction zone parameters favoring the occurrence of giant megathrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brizzi, S.; Sandri, L.; Funiciello, F.; Corbi, F.; Piromallo, C.; Heuret, A.

2018-03-01

The observed maximum magnitude of subduction megathrust earthquakes is highly variable worldwide. One key question is which conditions, if any, favor the occurrence of giant earthquakes (Mw ≥ 8.5). Here we carry out a multivariate statistical study in order to investigate the factors affecting the maximum magnitude of subduction megathrust earthquakes. We find that the trench-parallel extent of subduction zones and the thickness of trench sediments provide the largest discriminating capability between subduction zones that have experienced giant earthquakes and those having significantly lower maximum magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations show that the observed spatial distribution of giant earthquakes cannot be explained by pure chance to a statistically significant level. We suggest that the combination of a long subduction zone with thick trench sediments likely promotes a great lateral rupture propagation, characteristic of almost all giant earthquakes.

Fractal analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the Hellenic Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadakis, Giorgos; Vallianatos, Filippos; Sammonds, Peter

2014-05-01

The Hellenic Subduction Zone (HSZ) is the most seismically active region in Europe. Many destructive earthquakes have taken place along the HSZ in the past. The evolution of such active regions is expressed through seismicity and is characterized by complex phenomenology. The understanding of the tectonic evolution process and the physical state of subducting regimes is crucial in earthquake prediction. In recent years, there is a growing interest concerning an approach to seismicity based on the science of complex systems (Papadakis et al., 2013; Vallianatos et al., 2012). In this study we calculate the fractal dimension of the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the HSZ and we aim to understand the significance of the obtained values to the tectonic and geodynamic evolution of this area. We use the external seismic sources provided by Papaioannou and Papazachos (2000) to create a dataset regarding the subduction zone. According to the aforementioned authors, we define five seismic zones. Then, we structure an earthquake dataset which is based on the updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and the adjacent areas by Makropoulos et al. (2012), covering the period 1976-2009. The fractal dimension of the spatial distribution of earthquakes is calculated for each seismic zone and for the HSZ as a unified system using the box-counting method (Turcotte, 1997; Robertson et al., 1995; Caneva and Smirnov, 2004). Moreover, the variation of the fractal dimension is demonstrated in different time windows. These spatiotemporal variations could be used as an additional index to inform us about the physical state of each seismic zone. As a precursor in earthquake forecasting, the use of the fractal dimension appears to be a very interesting future work. Acknowledgements Giorgos Papadakis wish to acknowledge the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY). References Caneva, A., Smirnov, V., 2004. Using the fractal dimension of earthquake distributions and the

Extending the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Engdhal, Bob; Storchak, Dmitry; Villaseñor, Antonio; Harris, James

2015-04-01

After a 27-month project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), in January 2013 we released the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php) as a special product to use for seismic hazard studies. The new catalogue was necessary as improved seismic hazard studies necessitate that earthquake catalogues are homogeneous (to the largest extent possible) over time in their fundamental parameters, such as location and magnitude. Due to time and resource limitation, the ISC-GEM catalogue (1900-2009) included earthquakes selected according to the following time-variable cut-off magnitudes: Ms=7.5 for earthquakes occurring before 1918; Ms=6.25 between 1918 and 1963; and Ms=5.5 from 1964 onwards. Because of the importance of having a reliable seismic input for seismic hazard studies, funding from GEM and two commercial companies in the US and UK allowed us to start working on the extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue both for earthquakes that occurred beyond 2009 and for earthquakes listed in the International Seismological Summary (ISS) which fell below the cut-off magnitude of 6.25. This extension is part of a four-year program that aims at including in the ISC-GEM catalogue large global earthquakes that occurred before the beginning of the ISC Bulletin in 1964. In this contribution we present the updated ISC GEM catalogue, which will include over 1000 more earthquakes that occurred in 2010 2011 and several hundreds more between 1950 and 1959. The catalogue extension between 1935 and 1949 is currently underway. The extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue will also be helpful for regional cross border seismic hazard studies as the ISC-GEM catalogue should be used as basis for cross-checking the consistency in location and magnitude of those earthquakes listed both in the ISC GEM global catalogue and regional catalogues.

Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

So, Emily; Spence, Robin

2013-01-01

Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2017-12-01

The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

Spatial Distribution of earthquakes off the coast of Fukushima Two Years after the M9 Earthquake: the Southern Area of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Rupture Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, T.; Nakahigashi, K.; Shinohara, M.; Mochizuki, K.; Shiobara, H.

2014-12-01

Huge earthquakes cause vastly stress field change around the rupture zones, and many aftershocks and other related geophysical phenomenon such as geodetic movements have been observed. It is important to figure out the time-spacious distribution during the relaxation process for understanding the giant earthquake cycle. In this study, we pick up the southern rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0). The seismicity rate keeps still high compared with that before the 2011 earthquake. Many studies using ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) have been doing since soon after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in order to obtain aftershock activity precisely. Here we show one of the studies at off the coast of Fukushima which is located on the southern part of the rupture area caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We deployed 4 broadband type OBSs (BBOBSs) and 12 short-period type OBSs (SOBS) in August 2012. Other 4 BBOBSs attached with absolute pressure gauges and 20 SOBSs were added in November 2012. We recovered 36 OBSs including 8 BBOBSs in November 2013. We selected 1,000 events in the vicinity of the OBS network based on a hypocenter catalog published by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and extracted the data after time corrections caused by each internal clock. Each P and S wave arrival times, P wave polarity and maximum amplitude were picked manually on a computer display. We assumed one dimensional velocity structure based on the result from an active source experiment across our network, and applied time corrections every station for removing ambiguity of the assumed structure. Then we adopted a maximum-likelihood estimation technique and calculated the hypocenters. The results show that intensive activity near the Japan Trench can be seen, while there was a quiet seismic zone between the trench zone and landward high activity zone.

Subduction zone earthquake probably triggered submarine hydrocarbon seepage offshore Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, David; José M., Mogollón; Michael, Strasser; Thomas, Pape; Gerhard, Bohrmann; Noemi, Fekete; Volkhard, Spiess; Sabine, Kasten

2014-05-01

Seepage of methane-dominated hydrocarbons is heterogeneous in space and time, and trigger mechanisms of episodic seep events are not well constrained. It is generally found that free hydrocarbon gas entering the local gas hydrate stability field in marine sediments is sequestered in gas hydrates. In this manner, gas hydrates can act as a buffer for carbon transport from the sediment into the ocean. However, the efficiency of gas hydrate-bearing sediments for retaining hydrocarbons may be corrupted: Hypothesized mechanisms include critical gas/fluid pressures beneath gas hydrate-bearing sediments, implying that these are susceptible to mechanical failure and subsequent gas release. Although gas hydrates often occur in seismically active regions, e.g., subduction zones, the role of earthquakes as potential triggers of hydrocarbon transport through gas hydrate-bearing sediments has hardly been explored. Based on a recent publication (Fischer et al., 2013), we present geochemical and transport/reaction-modelling data suggesting a substantial increase in upward gas flux and hydrocarbon emission into the water column following a major earthquake that occurred near the study sites in 1945. Calculating the formation time of authigenic barite enrichments identified in two sediment cores obtained from an anticlinal structure called "Nascent Ridge", we find they formed 38-91 years before sampling, which corresponds well to the time elapsed since the earthquake (62 years). Furthermore, applying a numerical model, we show that the local sulfate/methane transition zone shifted upward by several meters due to the increased methane flux and simulated sulfate profiles very closely match measured ones in a comparable time frame of 50-70 years. We thus propose a causal relation between the earthquake and the amplified gas flux and present reflection seismic data supporting our hypothesis that co-seismic ground shaking induced mechanical fracturing of gas hydrate-bearing sediments

An updated global earthquake catalogue for stable continental regions: Reassessing the correlation with ancient rifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schulte, S.M.; Mooney, W.D.

2005-01-01

We present an updated global earthquake catalogue for stable continental regions (SCRs; i.e. intraplate earthquakes) that is available on the Internet. Our database contains information on location, magnitude, seismic moment and focal mechanisms for over 1300 M (moment magnitude) ??? 4.5 historic and instrumentally recorded crustal events. Using this updated earthquake database in combination with a recently published global catalogue of rifts, we assess the correlation of intraplate seismicity with ancient rifts on a global scale. Each tectonic event is put into one of five categories based on location: (i) interior rifts/taphrogens, (ii) rifted continental margins, (iii) non-rifted crust, (iv) possible interior rifts and (v) possible rifted margins. We find that approximately 27 per cent of all events are classified as interior rifts (i), 25 per cent are rifted continental margins (ii), 36 per cent are within non-rifted crust (iii) and 12 per cent (iv and v) remain uncertain. Thus, over half (52 per cent) of all events are associated with rifted crust, although within the continental interiors (i.e. away from continental margins), non-rifted crust has experienced more earthquakes than interior rifts. No major change in distribution is found if only large (M ??? 6.0) earthquakes are considered. The largest events (M ??? 7.0) however, have occurred predominantly within rifts (50 per cent) and continental margins (43 per cent). Intraplate seismicity is not distributed evenly. Instead several zones of concentrated seismicity seem to exist. This is especially true for interior rifts/taphrogens, where a total of only 12 regions are responsible for 74 per cent of all events and as much as 98 per cent of all seismic moment released in that category. Of the four rifts/taphrogens that have experienced the largest earthquakes, seismicity within the Kutch rift, India, and the East China rift system, may be controlled by diffuse plate boundary deformation more than by the

Analysis of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Y. B.; Chen, P.; Zhang, S.; Chen, J. J.; Yan, F.; Peng, W. F.

2012-03-01

The pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies that occurred before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) from the global ionosphere map (GIM). We analyze the possible causes of the ionospheric anomalies based on the space environment and magnetic field status. Results show that some anomalies are related to the earthquakes. By analyzing the time of occurrence, duration, and spatial distribution of these ionospheric anomalies, a number of new conclusions are drawn, as follows: earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies are not bound to appear; both positive and negative anomalies are likely to occur; and the earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies discussed in the current study occurred 0-2 days before the associated earthquakes and in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 20:00 local time). Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies occur mainly in areas near the epicenter. However, the maximum affected area in the ionosphere does not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake. The directions deviating from the epicenters do not follow a fixed rule. The corresponding ionospheric effects can also be observed in the magnetically conjugated region. However, the probability of the anomalies appearance and extent of the anomalies in the magnetically conjugated region are smaller than the anomalies near the epicenter. Deep-focus earthquakes may also exhibit very significant pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies.

Rapid changes in the electrical state of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture zone

PubMed Central

Honkura, Yoshimori; Oshiman, Naoto; Matsushima, Masaki; Barış, Şerif; Kemal Tunçer, Mustafa; Bülent Tank, Sabri; Çelik, Cengiz; Çiftçi, Elif Tolak

2013-01-01

Crustal fluids exist near fault zones, but their relation to the processes that generate earthquakes, including slow-slip events, is unclear. Fault-zone fluids are characterized by low electrical resistivity. Here we investigate the time-dependent crustal resistivity in the rupture area of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit earthquake using electromagnetic data acquired at four sites before and after the earthquake. Most estimates of apparent resistivity in the frequency range of 0.05 to 2.0 Hz show abrupt co-seismic decreases on the order of tens of per cent. Data acquired at two sites 1 month after the Izmit earthquake indicate that the resistivity had already returned to pre-seismic levels. We interpret such changes as the pressure-induced transition between isolated and interconnected fluids. Some data show pre-seismic changes and this suggests that the transition is associated with foreshocks and slow-slip events before large earthquakes. PMID:23820970

Coulomb stress interactions among M≥5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda deformation zone and on the Mendocino Fracture Zone, Cascadia megathrust, and northern San Andreas fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rollins, John C.; Stein, Ross S.

2010-01-01

The Gorda deformation zone, a 50,000 km2 area of diffuse shear and rotation offshore northernmost California, has been the site of 20 M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes on four different fault orientations since 1976, including four M ≥ 7 shocks. This is the highest rate of large earthquakes in the contiguous United States. We calculate that the source faults of six recent M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes had experienced ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress increases imparted by earthquakes that struck less than 9 months beforehand. Control tests indicate that ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress interactions between M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes separated by Mw = 7.3 Trinidad earthquake are consistent with the locations of M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda zone until at least 1995, as well as earthquakes on the Mendocino Fault Zone in 1994 and 2000. Coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1980 earthquake are also consistent with its distinct elbow-shaped aftershock pattern. From these observations, we derive generalized static stress interactions among right-lateral, left-lateral and thrust faults near triple junctions.

Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction- Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Wallace, Laura M.; Hamling, Ian J.; Gerstenberger, Matthew C.

2018-05-01

Slow slip events (SSEs) have been documented in subduction zones worldwide, yet their implications for future earthquake occurrence are not well understood. Here we develop a relatively simple, simulation-based method for estimating the probability of megathrust earthquakes following tectonic events that induce any transient stress perturbations. This method has been applied to the locked Hikurangi megathrust (New Zealand) surrounded on all sides by the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake and SSEs. Our models indicate the annual probability of a M≥7.8 earthquake over 1 year after the Kaikoura earthquake increases by 1.3-18 times relative to the pre-Kaikoura probability, and the absolute probability is in the range of 0.6-7%. We find that probabilities of a large earthquake are mainly controlled by the ratio of the total stressing rate induced by all nearby tectonic sources to the mean stress drop of earthquakes. Our method can be applied to evaluate the potential for triggering a megathrust earthquake following SSEs in other subduction zones.

Octree-based Global Earthquake Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Guzman, L.; Juarez, A.; Bielak, J.; Salazar Monroy, E. F.

2017-12-01

Seismological research has motivated recent efforts to construct more accurate three-dimensional (3D) velocity models of the Earth, perform global simulations of wave propagation to validate models, and also to study the interaction of seismic fields with 3D structures. However, traditional methods for seismogram computation at global scales are limited by computational resources, relying primarily on traditional methods such as normal mode summation or two-dimensional numerical methods. We present an octree-based mesh finite element implementation to perform global earthquake simulations with 3D models using topography and bathymetry with a staircase approximation, as modeled by the Carnegie Mellon Finite Element Toolchain Hercules (Tu et al., 2006). To verify the implementation, we compared the synthetic seismograms computed in a spherical earth against waveforms calculated using normal mode summation for the Preliminary Earth Model (PREM) for a point source representation of the 2014 Mw 7.3 Papanoa, Mexico earthquake. We considered a 3 km-thick ocean layer for stations with predominantly oceanic paths. Eigen frequencies and eigen functions were computed for toroidal, radial, and spherical oscillations in the first 20 branches. Simulations are valid at frequencies up to 0.05 Hz. Matching among the waveforms computed by both approaches, especially for long period surface waves, is excellent. Additionally, we modeled the Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using the USGS finite fault inversion. Topography and bathymetry from ETOPO1 are included in a mesh with more than 3 billion elements; constrained by the computational resources available. We compared estimated velocity and GPS synthetics against observations at regional and teleseismic stations of the Global Seismological Network and discuss the differences among observations and synthetics, revealing that heterogeneity, particularly in the crust, needs to be considered.

Simulation of tsunamis from great earthquakes on the cascadia subduction zone.

PubMed

Ng, M K; Leblond, P H; Murty, T S

1990-11-30

Large earthquakes occur episodically in the Cascadia subduction zone. A numerical model has been used to simulate and assess the hazards of a tsunami generated by a hypothetical earthquake of magnitude 8.5 associated with rupture of the northern sections of the subduction zone. Wave amplitudes on the outer coast are closely related to the magnitude of sea-bottom displacement (5.0 meters). Some amplification, up to a factor of 3, may occur in some coastal embayments. Wave amplitudes in the protected waters of Puget Sound and the Strait of Georgia are predicted to be only about one fifth of those estmated on the outer coast.

Great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, A.R.; Kelsey, H.M.; Witter, R.C.

2006-01-01

Comparison of histories of great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis at eight coastal sites suggests plate-boundary ruptures of varying length, implying great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone. Inference of rupture length relies on degree of overlap on radiocarbon age ranges for earthquakes and tsunamis, and relative amounts of coseismic subsidence and heights of tsunamis. Written records of a tsunami in Japan provide the most conclusive evidence for rupture of much of the plate boundary during the earthquake of 26 January 1700. Cascadia stratigraphic evidence dating from about 1600??cal yr B.P., similar to that for the 1700 earthquake, implies a similarly long rupture with substantial subsidence and a high tsunami. Correlations are consistent with other long ruptures about 1350??cal yr B.P., 2500??cal yr B.P., 3400??cal yr B.P., 3800??cal yr B.P., 4400??cal yr B.P., and 4900??cal yr B.P. A rupture about 700-1100??cal yr B.P. was limited to the northern and central parts of the subduction zone, and a northern rupture about 2900??cal yr B.P. may have been similarly limited. Times of probable short ruptures in southern Cascadia include about 1100??cal yr B.P., 1700??cal yr B.P., 3200??cal yr B.P., 4200??cal yr B.P., 4600??cal yr B.P., and 4700??cal yr B.P. Rupture patterns suggest that the plate boundary in northern Cascadia usually breaks in long ruptures during the greatest earthquakes. Ruptures in southernmost Cascadia vary in length and recurrence intervals more than ruptures in northern Cascadia.

Exploring Interactions Between Subduction Zone Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity in the South Central Alaskan Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanagan, K. M.; Richardson, E.

2012-12-01

Although great earthquakes such as the recent moment-magnitude (M) 9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake have been shown to trigger remote seismicity in volcanoes, the extent to which subduction zone earthquakes can trigger shallow seismic swarms at volcanoes is largely unexplored. Unknowns in this relationship include the upper limit of distance, the lower limit of magnitude, the upper time limit between events, and the effects of rupture directivity. We searched the Advanced National Seismic System earthquake catalog from 1989 - 2011 for correlations in space and time between M > 5.0 earthquakes in the south central Alaskan subduction zone (between 58.5°N and 62.5°N, and 150.7°W and 154.7°W) and volcanic activity at Mt. Redoubt, Mt. Iliamna, and Mt. Spurr volcanoes. There are 48 earthquakes M > 5 in this catalog; five of these are M > 6. The depths of the 48 M>5 events range from 49km to 220km, and they are all between 100km and 350km of the three volcanoes. Preliminary analysis of our catalog shows that four of the five M > 6 earthquakes are followed by a volcanic earthquake swarm at either Redoubt or Spurr within 100 days, and three of them are followed by a volcanic earthquake swarm within a month. None of these events correlated in space and time with swarms at Mt. Iliamna. We are also searching for swarms and moderate earthquakes occurring in time windows far removed from each other. The likeliest case of remotely triggered seismicity in our search area to date occurred on January 24 2009, when a magnitude 5.8 earthquake beneath the Kenai Peninsula at 59.4°N, 152.8°W, and 95km depth was immediately followed by an increase of volcanic activity at Mt. Redoubt approximately 153km away. The first swarm began on Jan 25 2009. On Jan 30 2009, volcanologists at the Alaskan Volcano observatory determined the increased volcanic seismicity was indicative of an impending eruption. Mt. Redoubt erupted on March 15 2009. Proposed mechanisms for triggering of volcanoes by

Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thenhaus, P.C.

1990-01-01

A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-12 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. They are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S. because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in US history. In contrast to California, where earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Eastern US are generally regarded as only historical phenomena. A fundamental problem in the Eastern US, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use andmore » civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the tools that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. The term earthquake risk, on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade structures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.« less

Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul S.; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike

2011-01-01

Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

Revision of earthquake hypocentre locations in global bulletin data sets using source-specific station terms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nooshiri, Nima; Saul, Joachim; Heimann, Sebastian; Tilmann, Frederik; Dahm, Torsten

2017-02-01

Global earthquake locations are often associated with very large systematic travel-time residuals even for clear arrivals, especially for regional and near-regional stations in subduction zones because of their strongly heterogeneous velocity structure. Travel-time corrections can drastically reduce travel-time residuals at regional stations and, in consequence, improve the relative location accuracy. We have extended the shrinking-box source-specific station terms technique to regional and teleseismic distances and adopted the algorithm for probabilistic, nonlinear, global-search location. We evaluated the potential of the method to compute precise relative hypocentre locations on a global scale. The method has been applied to two specific test regions using existing P- and pP-phase picks. The first data set consists of 3103 events along the Chilean margin and the second one comprises 1680 earthquakes in the Tonga-Fiji subduction zone. Pick data were obtained from the GEOFON earthquake bulletin, produced using data from all available, global station networks. A set of timing corrections varying as a function of source position was calculated for each seismic station. In this way, we could correct the systematic errors introduced into the locations by the inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure without explicitly solving for a velocity model. Residual statistics show that the median absolute deviation of the travel-time residuals is reduced by 40-60 per cent at regional distances, where the velocity anomalies are strong. Moreover, the spread of the travel-time residuals decreased by ˜20 per cent at teleseismic distances (>28°). Furthermore, strong variations in initial residuals as a function of recording distance are smoothed out in the final residuals. The relocated catalogues exhibit less scattered locations in depth and sharper images of the seismicity associated with the subducting slabs. Comparison with a high-resolution local catalogue reveals that

Random variability explains apparent global clustering of large earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.

2011-01-01

The occurrence of 5 Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes since 2004 has created a debate over whether or not we are in a global cluster of large earthquakes, temporarily raising risks above long-term levels. I use three classes of statistical tests to determine if the record of M ≥ 7 earthquakes since 1900 can reject a null hypothesis of independent random events with a constant rate plus localized aftershock sequences. The data cannot reject this null hypothesis. Thus, the temporal distribution of large global earthquakes is well-described by a random process, plus localized aftershocks, and apparent clustering is due to random variability. Therefore the risk of future events has not increased, except within ongoing aftershock sequences, and should be estimated from the longest possible record of events.

Inferring rupture characteristics using new databases for 3D slab geometry and earthquake rupture models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, G. P.; Plescia, S. M.; Moore, G.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center has recently published a database of finite fault models for globally distributed M7.5+ earthquakes since 1990. Concurrently, we have also compiled a database of three-dimensional slab geometry models for all global subduction zones, to update and replace Slab1.0. Here, we use these two new and valuable resources to infer characteristics of earthquake rupture and propagation in subduction zones, where the vast majority of large-to-great-sized earthquakes occur. For example, we can test questions that are fairly prevalent in seismological literature. Do large ruptures preferentially occur where subduction zones are flat (e.g., Bletery et al., 2016)? Can `flatness' be mapped to understand and quantify earthquake potential? Do the ends of ruptures correlate with significant changes in slab geometry, and/or bathymetric features entering the subduction zone? Do local subduction zone geometry changes spatially correlate with areas of low slip in rupture models (e.g., Moreno et al., 2012)? Is there a correlation between average seismogenic zone dip, and/or seismogenic zone width, and earthquake size? (e.g., Hayes et al., 2012; Heuret et al., 2011). These issues are fundamental to the understanding of earthquake rupture dynamics and subduction zone seismogenesis, and yet many are poorly understood or are still debated in scientific literature. We attempt to address these questions and similar issues in this presentation, and show how these models can be used to improve our understanding of earthquake hazard in subduction zones.

Slab-pull and slab-push earthquakes in the Mexican, Chilean and Peruvian subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemoine, A.; Madariaga, R.; Campos, J.

2002-09-01

We studied intermediate depth earthquakes in the Chile, Peru and Mexican subduction zones, paying special attention to slab-push (down-dip compression) and slab-pull (down-dip extension) mechanisms. Although, slab-push events are relatively rare in comparison with slab-pull earthquakes, quite a few have occurred recently. In Peru, a couple slab-push events occurred in 1991 and one slab-pull together with several slab-push events occurred in 1970 near Chimbote. In Mexico, several slab-push and slab-pull events occurred near Zihuatanejo below the fault zone of the 1985 Michoacan event. In central Chile, a large M=7.1 slab-push event occurred in October 1997 that followed a series of four shallow Mw>6 thrust earthquakes on the plate interface. We used teleseismic body waveform inversion of a number of Mw>5.9 slab-push and slab-pull earthquakes in order to obtain accurate mechanisms, depths and source time functions. We used a master event method in order to get relative locations. We discussed the occurrence of the relatively rare slab-push events in the three subduction zones. Were they due to the geometry of the subduction that produces flexure inside the downgoing slab, or were they produced by stress transfer during the earthquake cycle? Stress transfer can not explain the occurence of several compressional and extensional intraplate intermediate depth earthquakes in central Chile, central Mexico and central Peru. It seemed that the heterogeneity of the stress field produced by complex slab geometry has an important influence on intraplate intermediate depth earthquakes.

Multi-Scale Structure and Earthquake Properties in the San Jacinto Fault Zone Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Zion, Y.

2014-12-01

I review multi-scale multi-signal seismological results on structure and earthquake properties within and around the San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ) in southern California. The results are based on data of the southern California and ANZA networks covering scales from a few km to over 100 km, additional near-fault seismometers and linear arrays with instrument spacing 25-50 m that cross the SJFZ at several locations, and a dense rectangular array with >1100 vertical-component nodes separated by 10-30 m centered on the fault. The structural studies utilize earthquake data to image the seismogenic sections and ambient noise to image the shallower structures. The earthquake studies use waveform inversions and additional time domain and spectral methods. We observe pronounced damage regions with low seismic velocities and anomalous Vp/Vs ratios around the fault, and clear velocity contrasts across various sections. The damage zones and velocity contrasts produce fault zone trapped and head waves at various locations, along with time delays, anisotropy and other signals. The damage zones follow a flower-shape with depth; in places with velocity contrast they are offset to the stiffer side at depth as expected for bimaterial ruptures with persistent propagation direction. Analysis of PGV and PGA indicates clear persistent directivity at given fault sections and overall motion amplification within several km around the fault. Clear temporal changes of velocities, probably involving primarily the shallow material, are observed in response to seasonal, earthquake and other loadings. Full source tensor properties of M>4 earthquakes in the complex trifurcation area include statistically-robust small isotropic component, likely reflecting dynamic generation of rock damage in the source volumes. The dense fault zone instruments record seismic "noise" at frequencies >200 Hz that can be used for imaging and monitoring the shallow material with high space and time details, and

Tremor, remote triggering and earthquake cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Z.

2012-12-01

Deep tectonic tremor and episodic slow-slip events have been observed at major plate-boundary faults around the Pacific Rim. These events have much longer source durations than regular earthquakes, and are generally located near or below the seismogenic zone where regular earthquakes occur. Tremor and slow-slip events appear to be extremely stress sensitive, and could be instantaneously triggered by distant earthquakes and solid earth tides. However, many important questions remain open. For example, it is still not clear what are the necessary conditions for tremor generation, and how remote triggering could affect large earthquake cycle. Here I report a global search of tremor triggered by recent large teleseismic earthquakes. We mainly focus on major subduction zones around the Pacific Rim. These include the southwest and northeast Japan subduction zones, the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand, the Cascadia subduction zone, and the major subduction zones in Central and South America. In addition, we examine major strike-slip faults around the Caribbean plate, the Queen Charlotte fault in northern Pacific Northwest Coast, and the San Andreas fault system in California. In each place, we first identify triggered tremor as a high-frequency non-impulsive signal that is in phase with the large-amplitude teleseismic waves. We also calculate the dynamic stress and check the triggering relationship with the Love and Rayleigh waves. Finally, we calculate the triggering potential with the local fault orientation and surface-wave incident angles. Our results suggest that tremor exists at many plate-boundary faults in different tectonic environments, and could be triggered by dynamic stress as low as a few kPas. In addition, we summarize recent observations of slow-slip events and earthquake swarms triggered by large distant earthquakes. Finally, we propose several mechanisms that could explain apparent clustering of large earthquakes around the world.

Laboratory-based maximum slip rates in earthquake rupture zones and radiated energy

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.; Boettcher, M.; Beeler, N.; Boatwright, J.

2010-01-01

Laboratory stick-slip friction experiments indicate that peak slip rates increase with the stresses loading the fault to cause rupture. If this applies also to earthquake fault zones, then the analysis of rupture processes is simplified inasmuch as the slip rates depend only on the local yield stress and are independent of factors specific to a particular event, including the distribution of slip in space and time. We test this hypothesis by first using it to develop an expression for radiated energy that depends primarily on the seismic moment and the maximum slip rate. From laboratory results, the maximum slip rate for any crustal earthquake, as well as various stress parameters including the yield stress, can be determined based on its seismic moment and the maximum slip within its rupture zone. After finding that our new equation for radiated energy works well for laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, we used it to estimate radiated energies for five earthquakes with magnitudes near 2 that were induced in a deep gold mine, an M 2.1 repeating earthquake near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) site and seven major earthquakes in California and found good agreement with energies estimated independently from spectra of local and regional ground-motion data. Estimates of yield stress for the earthquakes in our study range from 12 MPa to 122 MPa with a median of 64 MPa. The lowest value was estimated for the 2004 M 6 Parkfield, California, earthquake whereas the nearby M 2.1 repeating earthquake, as recorded in the SAFOD pilot hole, showed a more typical yield stress of 64 MPa.

Probabilities of Earthquake Occurrences along the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pailoplee, Santi

2017-03-01

Earthquake activities along the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone (SASZ) were clarified using the derived frequency-magnitude distribution in terms of the (i) most probable maximum magnitudes, (ii) return periods and (iii) probabilities of earthquake occurrences. The northern segment of SASZ, along the western coast of Myanmar to southern Nicobar, was found to be capable of generating an earthquake of magnitude 6.1-6.4 Mw in the next 30-50 years, whilst the southern segment of offshore of the northwestern and western parts of Sumatra (defined as a high hazard region) had a short recurrence interval of 6-12 and 10-30 years for a 6.0 and 7.0 Mw magnitude earthquake, respectively, compared to the other regions. Throughout the area along the SASZ, there are 70- almost 100% probabilities of the earthquake with Mw up to 6.0 might be generated in the next 50 years whilst the northern segment had less than 50% chance of occurrence of a 7.0 Mw earthquake in the next 50 year. Although Rangoon was defined as the lowest hazard among the major city in the vicinity of SASZ, there is 90% chance of a 6.0 Mw earthquake in the next 50 years. Therefore, the effective mitigation plan of seismic hazard should be contributed.

Towards Estimating the Magnitude of Earthquakes from EM Data Collected from the Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heraud, J. A.

2016-12-01

During the past three years, magnetometers deployed in the Peruvian coast have been providing evidence that the ULF pulses received are indeed generated at the subduction or Benioff zone. Such evidence was presented at the AGU 2015 Fall meeting, showing the results of triangulation of pulses from two magnetometers located in the central area of Peru, using data collected during a two-year period. The process has been extended in time, only pulses associated with the occurrence of earthquakes and several pulse parameters have been used to estimate a function relating the magnitude of the earthquake with the value of a function generated with those parameters. The results shown, including an animated data video, are a first approximation towards the estimation of the magnitude of an earthquake about to occur, based on electromagnetic pulses that originated at the subduction zone. During the past three years, magnetometers deployed in the Peruvian coast have been providing evidence that the ULF pulses received are indeed generated at the subduction or Benioff zone. Such evidence was presented at the AGU 2015 Fall meeting, showing the results of triangulation of pulses from two magnetometers located in the central area of Peru, using data collected during a two-year period. The process has been extended in time, only pulses associated with the occurrence of earthquakes have been used and several pulse parameters have been used to estimate a function relating the magnitude of the earthquake with the value of a function generated with those parameters. The results shown, including an animated data video, are a first approximation towards the estimation of the magnitude of an earthquake about to occur, based on electromagnetic pulses that originated at the subduction zone.

Holocene turbidite and onshore paleoseismic record of great earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone: relevance for the Sumatra 2004 Great Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutierrez-Pastor, J.; Nelson, C. H.; Goldfinger, C.; Johnson, J.

2005-05-01

Marine turbidite stratigraphy, onshore paleoseismic records of tsunami sand beds and co-seismic subsidence (Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997; Kelsey et al., 2002; Witter et al., 2003) and tsunami sands of Japan (Satake et al., 1996) all show evidence for great earthquakes (M ~ 9) on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. When a great earthquake shakes 1000 kilometers of the Cascadia margin, sediment failures occur in all tributary canyons and resulting turbidity currents travel down the canyon systems and deposit synchronous turbidites in abyssal seafloor channels. These turbidite records provide a deepwater paleoseismic record of great earthquakes. An onshore paleoseismic record develops from rapid coseismic subsidence resulting in buried marshes and drowned forests, and subsequent tsunami sand layer deposition. The Cascadia Basin provides the longest paleoseismic record of great earthquakes that is presently available for a subduction zone. A total of 17 synchronous turbidites have deposited along ~700 km of the Cascadia margin during the Holocene time of ~10,000 cal yr. Because the youngest paleoseismic event in all turbidite and onshore records is 300 AD, the average recurrence interval of Great Earthquakes is ~ 600 yr. At least 6 smaller events have also ruptured shorter margin segments. Linkage of the rupture length of these events comes from relative dating tools such as the "confluence test" of Adams (1990), radiocarbon ages of onshore and offshore events and physical property correlation of individual event "signatures". We use both 14C ages and analysis of hemipelagic sediment thickness between turbidites (H), where H/sedimentation rate = time between turbidite events to develop two recurrence histories. Utilizing the most reliable 14C and hemipelagic data sets from turbidites for the past ~ 5000 yr, the minimum recurrence time is ~ 300 yr and maximum time is ~ 1300 yr. There also is a recurrence pattern through the entire Holocene that consists of a long time

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

2014-01-01

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size-frequency statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ide, Satoshi; Yabe, Suguru; Tanaka, Yoshiyuki

2016-11-01

The possibility that tidal stress can trigger earthquakes is long debated. In particular, a clear causal relationship between small earthquakes and the phase of tidal stress is elusive. However, tectonic tremors deep within subduction zones are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with tremor rate increasing at an exponential rate with rising tidal stress. Thus, slow deformation and the possibility of earthquakes at subduction plate boundaries may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here we calculate the tidal stress history, and specifically the amplitude of tidal stress, on a fault plane in the two weeks before large earthquakes globally, based on data from the global, Japanese, and Californian earthquake catalogues. We find that very large earthquakes, including the 2004 Sumatran, 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress amplitude. This tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. However, we also find that the fraction of large earthquakes increases (the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the amplitude of tidal shear stress increases. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. This suggests that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress.

What role did the Hikurangi subduction zone play in the M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, L. M.; Hamling, I. J.; Kaneko, Y.; Fry, B.; Clark, K.; Bannister, S. C.; Ellis, S. M.; Francois-Holden, C.; Hreinsdottir, S.; Mueller, C.

2017-12-01

The 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake ruptured at least a dozen faults in the northern South Island of New Zealand, within the transition from the Hikurangi subduction zone (in the North Island) to the transpressive Alpine Fault (in the central South Island). The role that the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone played (or did not play) in the Kaikoura earthquake remains one of the most controversial aspects of this spectacularly complex earthquake. Investigations using near-field seismological and geodetic data suggest a dominantly crustal faulting source for the event, while studies relying on teleseismic data propose that a large portion of the moment release is due to rupture of the Hikurangi subduction interface beneath the northern South Island. InSAR and GPS data also show that a large amount of afterslip (up to 0.5 m) occurred on the subduction interface beneath the crustal faults that ruptured in the M7.8 earthquake, during the months following the earthquake. Modeling of GPS velocities for the 20 year period prior to the earthquake indicate that interseismic coupling was occurring on the Hikurangi subduction interface beneath the northern South Island, in a similar location to the suggested coseismic and postseismic slip on the subduction interface. We will integrate geodetic, seismological, tsunami, and geological observations in an attempt to balance the seemingly conflicting views from local and teleseismic data regarding the role that the southern Hikurangi subduction zone played in the earthquake. We will also discuss the broader implications of the observed coseismic and postseismic deformation for understanding the kinematics of the southern termination of the Hikurangi subduction zone, and its role in the transition from subduction to strike-slip in the central New Zealand region.

A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

2010-01-01

We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Seismological investigation of earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Final report, September 1986--December 1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herrmann, R.B.; Nguyen, B.

Earthquake activity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone had been monitored by regional seismic networks since 1975. During this time period, over 3,700 earthquakes have been located within the region bounded by latitudes 35{degrees}--39{degrees}N and longitudes 87{degrees}--92{degrees}W. Most of these earthquakes occur within a 1.5{degrees} x 2{degrees} zone centered on the Missouri Bootheel. Source parameters of larger earthquakes in the zone and in eastern North America are determined using surface-wave spectral amplitudes and broadband waveforms for the purpose of determining the focal mechanism, source depth and seismic moment. Waveform modeling of broadband data is shown to be a powerful toolmore » in defining these source parameters when used complementary with regional seismic network data, and in addition, in verifying the correctness of previously published focal mechanism solutions.« less

Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

2010-01-01

We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

Spatiotemporal earthquake clusters along the North Anatolian fault zone offshore Istanbul

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bulut, Fatih; Ellsworth, William L.; Bohnhoff, Marco; Aktar, Mustafa; Dresen, Georg

2011-01-01

We investigate earthquakes with similar waveforms in order to characterize spatiotemporal microseismicity clusters within the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) in northwest Turkey along the transition between the 1999 ??zmit rupture zone and the Marmara Sea seismic gap. Earthquakes within distinct activity clusters are relocated with cross-correlation derived relative travel times using the double difference method. The spatiotemporal distribution of micro earthquakes within individual clusters is resolved with relative location accuracy comparable to or better than the source size. High-precision relative hypocenters define the geometry of individual fault patches, permitting a better understanding of fault kinematics and their role in local-scale seismotectonics along the region of interest. Temporal seismic sequences observed in the eastern Sea of Marmara region suggest progressive failure of mostly nonoverlapping areas on adjacent fault patches and systematic migration of microearthquakes within clusters during the progressive failure of neighboring fault patches. The temporal distributions of magnitudes as well as the number of events follow swarmlike behavior rather than a mainshock/aftershock pattern.

The Western Guerrero, Mexico, seismogenic zone from the microseismicity associated to the 1979 Petatlan and 1985 Zihuatanejo earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdés-González, C.; Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

1998-03-01

The Western Guerrero, Mexico, seismogenic zone was completely ruptured by the 1979 ( Ms 7.6) Petatlan and 1985 ( Ms 7.5) Zihuatanejo earthquakes. Hypocenters of the Petatlan aftershocks define an approximately 10-km-thick Wadati— Benioff zone of high seismic activity and a thinner seaward region that is primarily an extension of the deeper part of the 10-km-thick zone. The aftershocks of the Zihuatanejo earthquake occurred in the seaward portion of the same epicentral region but the hypocenters were shallower. The spatial distribution of the closely timed microseismicity following the two earthquakes outlines a seismogenic zone which begins at about 40 km from the trench axis of the Western Guerrero subduction region and extends approximately 90 km. These results indicate that the maximum possible size of thrust earthquakes in the Guerrero seismic gap is of Mw ˜8.4.

A Computer-Based Subduction-Zone-Earthquake Exercise for Introductory-Geology Classes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shea, James Herbert

1991-01-01

Describes the author's computer-based program for a subduction-zone-earthquake exercise. Instructions for conducting the activity and obtaining the program from the author are provided. Written in IBM QuickBasic. (PR)

Fault zone structure and seismic reflection characteristics in zones of slow slip and tsunami earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Rebecca; Henrys, Stuart; Sutherland, Rupert; Barker, Daniel; Wallace, Laura; Holden, Caroline; Power, William; Wang, Xiaoming; Morgan, Joanna; Warner, Michael; Downes, Gaye

2015-04-01

Over the last couple of decades we have learned that a whole spectrum of different fault slip behaviour takes place on subduction megathrust faults from stick-slip earthquakes to slow slip and stable sliding. Geophysical data, including seismic reflection data, can be used to characterise margins and fault zones that undergo different modes of slip. In this presentation we will focus on the Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, which exhibits marked along-strike changes in seismic behaviour and margin characteristics. Campaign and continuous GPS measurements reveal deep interseismic coupling and deep slow slip events (~30-60 km) at the southern Hikurangi margin. The northern margin, in contrast, experiences aseismic slip and shallow (<10-15 km) slow slip events (SSE) every 18-24 months with equivalent moment magnitudes of Mw 6.5-6.8. Updip of the SSE region two unusual megathrust earthquakes occurred in March and May 1947 with characteristics typical of tsunami earthquakes. The Hikurangi margin is therefore an excellent natural laboratory to study differential fault slip behaviour. Using 2D seismic reflection, magnetic anomaly and geodetic data we observe in the source areas of the 1947 tsunami earthquakes i) low amplitude interface reflectivity, ii) shallower interface relief, iii) bathymetric ridges, iv) magnetic anomaly highs and in the case of the March 1947 earthquake v) stronger geodetic coupling. We suggest that this is due to the subduction of seamounts, similar in dimensions to seamounts observed on the incoming Pacific plate, to depths of <10 km. We propose a source model for the 1947 tsunami earthquakes based on geophysical data and find that extremely low rupture velocities (c. 300 m/s) are required to model the observed large tsunami run-up heights (Bell et al. 2014, EPSL). Our study suggests that subducted topography can cause the nucleation of moderate earthquakes with complex, low velocity rupture scenarios that enhance tsunami waves, and the role of

Global observation of Omori-law decay in the rate of triggered earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, T.

2001-12-01

Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 events in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with M greater than 7.0 from the Harvard CMT catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near the main shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ~39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, triggered earthquakes obey an Omori-law rate decay that lasts between ~7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main-shock centroid. Earthquakes triggered by smaller quakes (foreshocks) also obey Omori's law, which is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. These observations indicate that earthquake probability calculations which include interactions from previous shocks should incorporate a transient Omori-law decay with time. In addition, a very simple model using the observed global rate change with time and spatial distribution of triggered earthquakes can be applied to immediately assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following large events, and can be in place until more sophisticated analyses are conducted.

Imaging 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake and Its Aftershock Sequence Combining Multiple Calibrated Global Seismic Arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, B.; Ghosh, A.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake provides a good opportunity to study the tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Himalayas, one of the most seismically active plate boundaries. Details of the seismicity patterns and associated structures in the Himalayas are poorly understood mainly due to limited instrumentation. Here, we apply a back-projection method to study the mainshock rupture and the following aftershock sequence using four large aperture global seismic arrays. All the arrays show eastward rupture propagation of about 130 km and reveal similar evolution of seismic energy radiation, with strong high-frequency energy burst about 50 km north of Kathmandu. Each single array, however, is typically limited by large azimuthal gap, low resolution, and artifacts due to unmodeled velocity structures. Therefore, we use a self-consistent empirical calibration method to combine four different arrays to image the Gorkha event. It greatly improves the resolution, can better track rupture and reveal details that cannot be resolved by any individual array. In addition, we also use the same arrays at teleseismic distances and apply a back-projection technique to detect and locate the aftershocks immediately following the Gorkha earthquake. We detect about 2.5 times the aftershocks recorded by the Advance National Seismic System comprehensive earthquake catalog during the 19 days following the mainshock. The aftershocks detected by the arrays show an east-west trend in general, with majority of the aftershocks located at the eastern part of the rupture patch and surrounding the rupture zone of the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock. Overall spatiotemporal aftershock pattern agrees well with global catalog, with our catalog showing more details relative to the standard global catalog. The improved aftershock catalog enables us to better study the aftershock dynamics, stress evolution in this region. Moreover, rapid and better imaging of aftershock distribution may aid rapid response

Do weak global stresses synchronize earthquakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bendick, R.; Bilham, R.

2017-08-01

Insofar as slip in an earthquake is related to the strain accumulated near a fault since a previous earthquake, and this process repeats many times, the earthquake cycle approximates an autonomous oscillator. Its asymmetric slow accumulation of strain and rapid release is quite unlike the harmonic motion of a pendulum and need not be time predictable, but still resembles a class of repeating systems known as integrate-and-fire oscillators, whose behavior has been shown to demonstrate a remarkable ability to synchronize to either external or self-organized forcing. Given sufficient time and even very weak physical coupling, the phases of sets of such oscillators, with similar though not necessarily identical period, approach each other. Topological and time series analyses presented here demonstrate that earthquakes worldwide show evidence of such synchronization. Though numerous studies demonstrate that the composite temporal distribution of major earthquakes in the instrumental record is indistinguishable from random, the additional consideration of event renewal interval serves to identify earthquake groupings suggestive of synchronization that are absent in synthetic catalogs. We envisage the weak forces responsible for clustering originate from lithospheric strain induced by seismicity itself, by finite strains over teleseismic distances, or by other sources of lithospheric loading such as Earth's variable rotation. For example, quasi-periodic maxima in rotational deceleration are accompanied by increased global seismicity at multidecadal intervals.

Role of Equatorial Anomaly in Earthquake time precursive features: A few strong events over West Pacific zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devi, Minakshi; Patgiri, S.; Barbara, A. K.; Oyama, Koh-Ichiro; Ryu, K.; Depuev, V.; Depueva, A.

2018-03-01

The earthquake (EQ) time coupling processes between equator-low-mid latitude ionosphere are complex due to inherent dynamical status of each latitudinal zone and qualified geomagnetic roles working in the system. In an attempt to identify such process, the paper presents temporal and latitudinal variations of ionization density (foF2) covering 45°N to 35°S, during a number of earthquake events (M > 5.5). The approaches adopted for extraction of features by the earthquake induced preparatory processes are discussed in the paper through identification of parameters like the 'EQ time modification in density gradient' defined by δ = (foF2 max - foF2 min)/τmm, where τmm - time span (in days) between EQ modified density maximum and minimum, and the Earthquake time Equatorial Anomaly, i.e. EEA, one of the most significant phenomenon which develops even during night time irrespective of epicenter position. Based on the observations, the paper presents the seismic time coupling dynamics through anomaly like manifestations between equator, low and mid latitude ionosphere bringing in the global Total Electron Content (TEC) features as supporting indices.

Mid-continent earthquake zones; lessons from New Madrid, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitchell, B. J.

1991-01-01

Many seismically active regions occur throughout the world as concentrated zones surrounded by the relatively stable crust of shields or platforms. Examples occur in central and eastern North America, northeastern Brazil, Australia, Norway, Svalbard, Greenland, and other places. Some of these zones, such as those at New Madrid, Missouri, and in the St. Lawrence Valley on the Canadian border, extend over relatively large areas and are marked by a high level of seismicity. Others, such as that near Anna Ohio, are smaller, and the level of activity is lower. Some zones are occasinoally sites for major earthquakes which, if they are in populated regions, can cause widespread destrucion and loss of life. 

Finite element models of earthquake cycles in mature strike-slip fault zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, John Charles

The research presented in this dissertation is on the subject of strike-slip earthquakes and the stresses that build and release in the Earth's crust during earthquake cycles. Numerical models of these cycles in a layered elastic/viscoelastic crust are produced using the finite element method. A fault that alternately sticks and slips poses a particularly challenging problem for numerical implementation, and a new contact element dubbed the "Velcro" element was developed to address this problem (Appendix A). Additionally, the finite element code used in this study was bench-marked against analytical solutions for some simplified problems (Chapter 2), and the resolving power was tested for the fault region of the models (Appendix B). With the modeling method thus developed, there are two main questions posed. First, in Chapter 3, the effect of a finite-width shear zone is considered. By defining a viscoelastic shear zone beneath a periodically slipping fault, it is found that shear stress concentrates at the edges of the shear zone and thus causes the stress tensor to rotate into non-Andersonian orientations. Several methods are used to examine the stress patterns, including the plunge angles of the principal stresses and a new method that plots the stress tensor in a manner analogous to seismic focal mechanism diagrams. In Chapter 4, a simple San Andreas-like model is constructed, consisting of two great earthquake producing faults separated by a freely-slipping shorter fault. The model inputs of lower crustal viscosity, fault separation distance, and relative breaking strengths are examined for their effect on fault communication. It is found that with a lower crustal viscosity of 1018 Pa s (in the lower range of estimates for California), the two faults tend to synchronize their earthquake cycles, even in the cases where the faults have asymmetric breaking strengths. These models imply that postseismic stress transfer over hundreds of kilometers may play a

Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thenhaus, P.C.

1990-01-01

A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

Preliminary earthquake locations in the Kenai Peninsula recorded by the MOOS Array and their relationship to structure in the 1964 great earthquake zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Abers, G. A.; Christensen, D. H.; Kim, Y.; Calkins, J. A.

2011-12-01

Earthquakes in subduction zones are mostly generated at the interface between the subducting and overlying plates. In 2006-2009, the MOOS (Multidisciplinary Observations Of Subduction) seismic array was deployed around the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, consisting of 34 broadband seismometers recording for 1-3 years. This region spans the eastern end of the Aleutian megathrust that ruptured in the 1964 Mw 9.2 great earthquake, the second largest recorded earthquake, and ongoing seismicity is abundant. Here, we report an initial analysis of seismicity recorded by MOOS, in the context of preliminary imaging. There were 16,462 events detected in one year from initial STA/LTA signal detections and subsequent event associations from the MOOS Array. We manually reviewed them to eliminate distant earthquakes and noise, leaving 11,879 local earthquakes. To refine this catalog, an adaptive auto-regressive onset estimation algorithm was applied, doubling the original dataset and producing 20,659 P picks and 22,999 S picks for one month (September 2007). Inspection shows that this approach lead to almost negligible false alarms and many more events than hand picking. Within the well-sampled part of the array, roughly 200 km by 300 km, we locate 250% more earthquakes for one month than the permanent network catalog, or 10 earthquakes per day on this patch of the megathrust. Although the preliminary locations of earthquakes still show some scatter, we can see a concentration of events in a ~20-km-wide belt, part of which can be interpreted as seismogenic thrust zone. In conjunction with the seismicity study, we are imaging the plate interface with receiver functions. The main seismicity zone corresponds to the top of a low-velocity layer imaged in receiver functions, nominally attributed to the top of the downgoing plate. As we refine velocity models and apply relative relocation algorithms, we expect to improve the precision of the locations substantially. When combined with image

Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

How fault geometry controls earthquake magnitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bletery, Q.; Thomas, A.; Karlstrom, L.; Rempel, A. W.; Sladen, A.; De Barros, L.

2016-12-01

Recent large megathrust earthquakes, such as the Mw9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in 2011, astonished the scientific community. The first event occurred in a relatively low-convergence-rate subduction zone where events of its size were unexpected. The second event involved 60 m of shallow slip in a region thought to be aseismicaly creeping and hence incapable of hosting very large magnitude earthquakes. These earthquakes highlight gaps in our understanding of mega-earthquake rupture processes and the factors controlling their global distribution. Here we show that gradients in dip angle exert a primary control on mega-earthquake occurrence. We calculate the curvature along the major subduction zones of the world and show that past mega-earthquakes occurred on flat (low-curvature) interfaces. A simplified analytic model demonstrates that shear strength heterogeneity increases with curvature. Stress loading on flat megathrusts is more homogeneous and hence more likely to be released simultaneously over large areas than on highly-curved faults. Therefore, the absence of asperities on large faults might counter-intuitively be a source of higher hazard.

ISC-GEM: Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009), II. Location and seismicity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bondár, I.; Engdahl, E. Robert; Villaseñor, A.; Harris, James; Storchak, D.

2015-02-01

We present the final results of a two-year project sponsored by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. The ISC-GEM global catalogue consists of some 19 thousand instrumentally recorded, moderate to large earthquakes, spanning 110 years of seismicity. We relocated all events in the catalogue using a two-tier approach. The EHB location methodology (Engdahl et al., 1998) was applied first to obtain improved hypocentres with special focus on the depth determination. The locations were further refined in the next step by fixing the depths to those from the EHB analysis and applying the new International Seismological Centre (ISC) location algorithm (Bondár and Storchak, 2011) that reduces location bias by accounting for correlated travel-time prediction error structure. To facilitate the relocation effort, some one million seismic P and S wave arrival-time data were added to the ISC database for the period between 1904 and 1970, either from original station bulletins in the ISC archive or by digitizing the scanned images of the International Seismological Summary (ISS) bulletin (Villaseñor and Engdahl, 2005, 2007). Although no substantial amount of new phase data were acquired for the modern period (1964-2009), the number of phases used in the location has still increased by three millions, owing to fact that both the EHB and ISC locators use most well-recorded ak135 (Kennett et al., 1995) phases in the location. We show that the relocation effort yielded substantially improved locations, especially in the first half of the 20th century; we demonstrate significant improvements in focal depth estimates in subduction zones and other seismically active regions; and we show that the ISC-GEM catalogue provides an improved view of 110 years of global seismicity of the Earth. The ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue represents the final product of one of the ten global components in the GEM program, and is available to researchers at the ISC (http://www.isc.ac.uk).

Mega-earthquakes rupture flat megathrusts.

PubMed

Bletery, Quentin; Thomas, Amanda M; Rempel, Alan W; Karlstrom, Leif; Sladen, Anthony; De Barros, Louis

2016-11-25

The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquakes highlighted gaps in our understanding of mega-earthquake rupture processes and the factors controlling their global distribution: A fast convergence rate and young buoyant lithosphere are not required to produce mega-earthquakes. We calculated the curvature along the major subduction zones of the world, showing that mega-earthquakes preferentially rupture flat (low-curvature) interfaces. A simplified analytic model demonstrates that heterogeneity in shear strength increases with curvature. Shear strength on flat megathrusts is more homogeneous, and hence more likely to be exceeded simultaneously over large areas, than on highly curved faults. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Near-simultaneous great earthquakes at Tongan megathrust and outer rise in September 2009.

PubMed

Beavan, J; Wang, X; Holden, C; Wilson, K; Power, W; Prasetya, G; Bevis, M; Kautoke, R

2010-08-19

The Earth's largest earthquakes and tsunamis are usually caused by thrust-faulting earthquakes on the shallow part of the subduction interface between two tectonic plates, where stored elastic energy due to convergence between the plates is rapidly released. The tsunami that devastated the Samoan and northern Tongan islands on 29 September 2009 was preceded by a globally recorded magnitude-8 normal-faulting earthquake in the outer-rise region, where the Pacific plate bends before entering the subduction zone. Preliminary interpretation suggested that this earthquake was the source of the tsunami. Here we show that the outer-rise earthquake was accompanied by a nearly simultaneous rupture of the shallow subduction interface, equivalent to a magnitude-8 earthquake, that also contributed significantly to the tsunami. The subduction interface event was probably a slow earthquake with a rise time of several minutes that triggered the outer-rise event several minutes later. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that the normal fault ruptured first and dynamically triggered the subduction interface event. Our evidence comes from displacements of Global Positioning System stations and modelling of tsunami waves recorded by ocean-bottom pressure sensors, with support from seismic data and tsunami field observations. Evidence of the subduction earthquake in global seismic data is largely hidden because of the earthquake's slow rise time or because its ground motion is disguised by that of the normal-faulting event. Earthquake doublets where subduction interface events trigger large outer-rise earthquakes have been recorded previously, but this is the first well-documented example where the two events occur so closely in time and the triggering event might be a slow earthquake. As well as providing information on strain release mechanisms at subduction zones, earthquakes such as this provide a possible mechanism for the occasional large tsunamis generated at the Tonga

Estimation of earthquake effects associated with a great earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hopper, Margaret G.; Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore; Dobrovolny, Ernest E.

1983-01-01

Estimates have been made of the effects of a large Ms = 8.6, Io = XI earthquake hypothesed to occur anywhere in the New Madrid seismic zone. The estimates are based on the distributions of intensities associated with the earthquakes of 1811-12, 1843 and 1895 although the effects of other historical shocks are also considered. The resulting composite type intensity map for a maximum intensity XI is believed to represent the upper level of shaking likely to occur. Specific intensity maps have been developed for six cities near the epicentral region taking into account the most likely distribution of site response in each city. Intensities found are: IX for Carbondale, IL; VIII and IX for Evansville, IN; VI and VIII for Little Rock, AR; IX and X for Memphis, TN; VIII, IX, and X for Paducah, KY; and VIII and X for Poplar Bluff, MO. On a regional scale, intensities are found to attenuate from the New Madrid seismic zone most rapidly to the west and southwest sides of the zone, most slowly to the northwest along the Mississippi River, on the northeast along the Ohio River, and on the southeast toward Georgia and South Carolina. Intensities attenuate toward the north, east, and south in a more normal fashion. Known liquefaction effects are documented but much more research is needed to define the liquefaction potential.

Electromagnetic Energy Released in the Subduction (Benioff) Zone in Weeks Previous to Earthquake Occurrence in Central Peru and the Estimation of Earthquake Magnitudes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heraud, J. A.; Centa, V. A.; Bleier, T.

2017-12-01

During the past four years, magnetometers deployed in the Peruvian coast have been providing evidence that the ULF pulses received are indeed generated at the subduction or Benioff zone and are connected with the occurrence of earthquakes within a few kilometers of the source of such pulses. This evidence was presented at the AGU 2015 Fall meeting, showing the results of triangulation of pulses from two magnetometers located in the central area of Peru, using data collected during a two-year period. Additional work has been done and the method has now been expanded to provide the instantaneous energy released at the stress areas on the Benioff zone during the precursory stage, before an earthquake occurs. Collected data from several events and in other parts of the country will be shown in a sequential animated form that illustrates the way energy is released in the ULF part of the electromagnetic spectrum. The process has been extended in time and geographical places. Only pulses associated with the occurrence of earthquakes are taken into account in an area which is highly associated with subduction-zone seismic events and several pulse parameters have been used to estimate a function relating the magnitude of the earthquake with the value of a function generated with those parameters. The results shown, including the animated data video, constitute additional work towards the estimation of the magnitude of an earthquake about to occur, based on electromagnetic pulses that originated at the subduction zone. The method is providing clearer evidence that electromagnetic precursors in effect conveys physical and useful information prior to the advent of a seismic event

Detection of Repeating Earthquakes within the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using 2013-2014 Cascadia Initiative Amphibious Network Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenefic, L.; Morton, E.; Bilek, S.

2017-12-01

It is well known that subduction zones create the largest earthquakes in the world, like the magnitude 9.5 Chile earthquake in 1960, or the more recent 9.1 magnitude Japan earthquake in 2011, both of which are in the top five largest earthquakes ever recorded. However, off the coast of the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S., the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) remains relatively quiet and modern seismic instruments have not recorded earthquakes of this size in the CSZ. The last great earthquake, a magnitude 8.7-9.2, occurred in 1700 and is constrained by written reports of the resultant tsunami in Japan and dating a drowned forest in the U.S. Previous studies have suggested the margin is most likely segmented along-strike. However, variations in frictional conditions in the CSZ fault zone are not well known. Geodetic modeling indicates that the locked seismogenic zone is likely completely offshore, which may be too far from land seismometers to adequately detect related seismicity. Ocean bottom seismometers, as part of the Cascadia Initiative Amphibious Network, were installed directly above the inferred seismogenic zone, which we use to better detect small interplate seismicity. Using the subspace detection method, this study looks to find new seismogenic zone earthquakes. This subspace detection method uses multiple previously known event templates concurrently to scan through continuous seismic data. Template events that make up the subspace are chosen from events in existing catalogs that likely occurred along the plate interface. Corresponding waveforms are windowed on the nearby Cascadia Initiative ocean bottom seismometers and coastal land seismometers for scanning. Detections that are found by the scan are similar to the template waveforms based upon a predefined threshold. Detections are then visually examined to determine if an event is present. The presence of repeating event clusters can indicate persistent seismic patches, likely corresponding to

Slow Earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone Detected by Multiple Mini Seismic Arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, B.; Ghosh, A.; Thurber, C. H.; Lanza, F.

2017-12-01

The Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone is one of the most seismically and volcanically active plate boundaries on earth. Compared to other subduction zones, the slow earthquakes, such as tectonic tremors (TTs) and low frequency earthquakes (LFEs), are relatively poorly studied due to the limited data availability and difficult logistics. The analysis of two-months of continuous data from a mini array deployed in 2012 shows abundant tremor and LFE activities under Unalaska Island that is heterogeneously distributed [Li & Ghosh, 2017]. To better study slow earthquakes and understand their physical characteristics in the study region, we deployed a hybrid array of arrays, consisting of three well-designed mini seismic arrays and five stand alone stations, in the Unalaska Island in 2014. They were operational for between one and two years. Using the beam back-projection method [Ghosh et al., 2009, 2012], we detect continuous tremor activities for over a year when all three arrays are running. The sources of tremors are located south of the Unalaska and Akutan Islands, at the eastern and down-dip edge of the rupture zone of the 1957 Mw 8.6 earthquake, and they are clustered in several patches, with a gap between the two major clusters. Tremors show multiple migration patterns with propagation in both along-strike and dip directions and a wide range of velocities. We also identify tens of LFE families and use them as templates to search for repeating LFE events with the matched-filter method. Hundreds to thousands of LFEs for each family are detected and their activities are spatiotemporally consistent with tremor activities. The array techniques are revealing a near-continuous tremor activity in this area with remarkable spatiotemporal details. It helps us to better recognize the physical properties of the transition zone, provides new insights into the slow earthquake activities in this area, and explores their relation with the local earthquakes and the potential slow

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

PubMed

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-07-15

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Evidence for large prehistoric earthquakes in the northern New Madrid Seismic Zone, central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Y.; Schweig, E.S.; Tuttle, M.P.; Ellis, M.A.

1998-01-01

We surveyed the area north of New Madris, Missouri, for prehistoric liquefaction deposits and uncovered two new sites with evidence of pre-1811 earthquakes. At one site, located about 20 km northeast of New Madrid, Missouri, radiocarbon dating indicates that an upper sand blow was probably deposited after A.D. 1510 and a lower sand blow was deposited prior to A.D. 1040. A sand blow at another site about 45 km northeast of New Madrid, Missouri, is dated as likely being deposited between A.D.55 and A.D. 1620 and represents the northernmost recognized expression of prehistoric liquefaction likely related to the New Madrid seismic zone. This study, taken together with other data, supports the occurrence of at least two earthquakes strong enough to indcue liquefaction or faulting before A.D. 1811, and after A.D. 400. One earthquake probably occurred around AD 900 and a second earthquake occurred around A.D. 1350. The data are not yet sufficient to estimate the magnitudes of the causative earthquakes for these liquefaction deposits although we conclude that all of the earthquakes are at least moment magnitude M ~6.8, the size of the 1895 Charleston, Missouri, earthquake. A more rigorous estimate of the number and sizes of prehistoric earthquakes in the New Madrid sesmic zone awaits evaluation of additional sites.

Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christophersen, Annemarie; Litchfield, Nicola; Berryman, Kelvin; Thomas, Richard; Basili, Roberto; Wallace, Laura; Ries, William; Hayes, Gavin P.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Yoshioka, Toshikazu; Koehler, Richard D.; Clark, Dan; Wolfson-Schwehr, Monica; Boettcher, Margaret S.; Villamor, Pilar; Horspool, Nick; Ornthammarath, Teraphan; Zuñiga, Ramon; Langridge, Robert M.; Stirling, Mark W.; Goded, Tatiana; Costa, Carlos; Yeats, Robert

2015-01-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) aims to develop uniform, openly available, standards, datasets and tools for worldwide seismic risk assessment through global collaboration, transparent communication and adapting state-of-the-art science. GEM Faulted Earth (GFE) is one of GEM’s global hazard module projects. This paper describes GFE’s development of a modern neotectonic fault database and a unique graphical interface for the compilation of new fault data. A key design principle is that of an electronic field notebook for capturing observations a geologist would make about a fault. The database is designed to accommodate abundant as well as sparse fault observations. It features two layers, one for capturing neotectonic faults and fold observations, and the other to calculate potential earthquake fault sources from the observations. In order to test the flexibility of the database structure and to start a global compilation, five preexisting databases have been uploaded to the first layer and two to the second. In addition, the GFE project has characterised the world’s approximately 55,000 km of subduction interfaces in a globally consistent manner as a basis for generating earthquake event sets for inclusion in earthquake hazard and risk modelling. Following the subduction interface fault schema and including the trace attributes of the GFE database schema, the 2500-km-long frontal thrust fault system of the Himalaya has also been characterised. We propose the database structure to be used widely, so that neotectonic fault data can make a more complete and beneficial contribution to seismic hazard and risk characterisation globally.

The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

2012-01-01

In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

Basin-centered asperities in great subduction zone earthquakes: A link between slip, subsidence, and subduction erosion?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wells, R.E.; Blakely, R.J.; Sugiyama, Y.; Scholl, D. W.; Dinterman, P.A.

2003-01-01

Published areas of high coseismic slip, or asperities, for 29 of the largest Circum-Pacific megathrust earthquakes are compared to forearc structure revealed by satellite free-air gravity, bathymetry, and seismic profiling. On average, 71% of an earthquake's seismic moment and 79% of its asperity area occur beneath the prominent gravity low outlining the deep-sea terrace; 57% of an earthquake's asperity area, on average, occurs beneath the forearc basins that lie within the deep-sea terrace. In SW Japan, slip in the 1923, 1944, 1946, and 1968 earthquakes was largely centered beneath five forearc basins whose landward edge overlies the 350??C isotherm on the plate boundary, the inferred downdip limit of the locked zone. Basin-centered coseismic slip also occurred along the Aleutian, Mexico, Peru, and Chile subduction zones but was ambiguous for the great 1964 Alaska earthquake. Beneath intrabasin structural highs, seismic slip tends to be lower, possibly due to higher temperatures and fluid pressures. Kilometers of late Cenozoic subsidence and crustal thinning above some of the source zones are indicated by seismic profiling and drilling and are thought to be caused by basal subduction erosion. The deep-sea terraces and basins may evolve not just by growth of the outer arc high but also by interseismic subsidence not recovered during earthquakes. Basin-centered asperities could indicate a link between subsidence, subduction erosion, and seismogenesis. Whatever the cause, forearc basins may be useful indicators of long-term seismic moment release. The source zone for Cascadia's 1700 A.D. earthquake contains five large, basin-centered gravity lows that may indicate potential asperities at depth. The gravity gradient marking the inferred downdip limit to large coseismic slip lies offshore, except in northwestern Washington, where the low extends landward beneath the coast. Transverse gravity highs between the basins suggest that the margin is seismically segmented and

Dynamic strains for earthquake source characterization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbour, Andrew J.; Crowell, Brendan W

2017-01-01

Strainmeters measure elastodynamic deformation associated with earthquakes over a broad frequency band, with detection characteristics that complement traditional instrumentation, but they are commonly used to study slow transient deformation along active faults and at subduction zones, for example. Here, we analyze dynamic strains at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters (BSM) associated with 146 local and regional earthquakes from 2004–2014, with magnitudes from M 4.5 to 7.2. We find that peak values in seismic strain can be predicted from a general regression against distance and magnitude, with improvements in accuracy gained by accounting for biases associated with site–station effects and source–path effects, the latter exhibiting the strongest influence on the regression coefficients. To account for the influence of these biases in a general way, we include crustal‐type classifications from the CRUST1.0 global velocity model, which demonstrates that high‐frequency strain data from the PBO BSM network carry information on crustal structure and fault mechanics: earthquakes nucleating offshore on the Blanco fracture zone, for example, generate consistently lower dynamic strains than earthquakes around the Sierra Nevada microplate and in the Salton trough. Finally, we test our dynamic strain prediction equations on the 2011 M 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, specifically continuous strain records derived from triangulation of 137 high‐rate Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network stations in Japan. Moment magnitudes inferred from these data and the strain model are in agreement when Global Positioning System subnetworks are unaffected by spatial aliasing.

Revision of earthquake hypocenter locations in GEOFON bulletin data using global source-specific station terms technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nooshiri, N.; Saul, J.; Heimann, S.; Tilmann, F. J.; Dahm, T.

2015-12-01

The use of a 1D velocity model for seismic event location is often associated with significant travel-time residuals. Particularly for regional stations in subduction zones, where the velocity structure strongly deviates from the assumed 1D model, residuals of up to ±10 seconds are observed even for clear arrivals, which leads to strongly biased locations. In fact, due to mostly regional travel-time anomalies, arrival times at regional stations do not match the location obtained with teleseismic picks, and vice versa. If the earthquake is weak and only recorded regionally, or if fast locations based on regional stations are needed, the location may be far off the corresponding teleseismic location. In this case, implementation of travel-time corrections may leads to a reduction of the travel-time residuals at regional stations and, in consequence, significantly improve the relative location accuracy. Here, we have extended the source-specific station terms (SSST) technique to regional and teleseismic distances and adopted the algorithm for probabilistic, non-linear, global-search earthquake location. The method has been applied to specific test regions using P and pP phases from the GEOFON bulletin data for all available station networks. By using this method, a set of timing corrections has been calculated for each station varying as a function of source position. In this way, an attempt is made to correct for the systematic errors, introduced by limitations and inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure, without solving for a new earth model itself. In this presentation, we draw on examples of the application of this global SSST technique to relocate earthquakes from the Tonga-Fiji subduction zone and from the Chilean margin. Our results have been showing a considerable decrease of the root-mean-square (RMS) residual in earthquake location final catalogs, a major reduction of the median absolute deviation (MAD) of the travel

Fault-zone waves observed at the southern Joshua Tree earthquake rupture zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Leary, P.

1994-01-01

Waveform and spectral characteristics of several aftershocks of the M 6.1 22 April 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake recorded at stations just north of the Indio Hills in the Coachella Valley can be interpreted in terms of waves propagating within narrow, low-velocity, high-attenuation, vertical zones. Evidence for our interpretation consists of: (1) emergent P arrivals prior to and opposite in polarity to the impulsive direct phase; these arrivals can be modeled as headwaves indicative of a transfault velocity contrast; (2) spectral peaks in the S wave train that can be interpreted as internally reflected, low-velocity fault-zone wave energy; and (3) spatial selectivity of event-station pairs at which these data are observed, suggesting a long, narrow geologic structure. The observed waveforms are modeled using the analytical solution of Ben-Zion and Aki (1990) for a plane-parallel layered fault-zone structure. Synthetic waveform fits to the observed data indicate the presence of NS-trending vertical fault-zone layers characterized by a thickness of 50 to 100 m, a velocity decrease of 10 to 15% relative to the surrounding rock, and a P-wave quality factor in the range 25 to 50.

Teleseismic constraints on the geological environment of deep episodic slow earthquakes in subduction zone forearcs: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Audet, Pascal; Kim, YoungHee

2016-02-01

More than a decade after the discovery of deep episodic slow slip and tremor, or slow earthquakes, at subduction zones, much research has been carried out to investigate the structural and seismic properties of the environment in which they occur. Slow earthquakes generally occur on the megathrust fault some distance downdip of the great earthquake seismogenic zone in the vicinity of the mantle wedge corner, where three major structural elements are in contact: the subducting oceanic crust, the overriding forearc crust and the continental mantle. In this region, thermo-petrological models predict significant fluid production from the dehydrating oceanic crust and mantle due to prograde metamorphic reactions, and their consumption by hydrating the mantle wedge. These fluids are expected to affect the dynamic stability of the megathrust fault and enable slow slip by increasing pore-fluid pressure and/or reducing friction in fault gouges. Resolving the fine-scale structure of the deep megathrust fault and the in situ distribution of fluids where slow earthquakes occur is challenging, and most advances have been made using teleseismic scattering techniques (e.g., receiver functions). In this paper we review the teleseismic structure of six well-studied subduction zones (three hot, i.e., Cascadia, southwest Japan, central Mexico, and three cool, i.e., Costa Rica, Alaska, and Hikurangi) that exhibit slow earthquake processes and discuss the evidence of structural and geological controls on the slow earthquake behavior. We conclude that changes in the mechanical properties of geological materials downdip of the seismogenic zone play a dominant role in controlling slow earthquake behavior, and that near-lithostatic pore-fluid pressures near the megathrust fault may be a necessary but insufficient condition for their occurrence.

Air quality in developing world disaster and conflict zones--the case of post-earthquake Haiti.

PubMed

Davis, Mary E; Rappaport, Ann

2014-10-15

Data on air quality are remarkably limited in the poorest of the world's countries. This is especially true for post-conflict and disaster zones, where international relief efforts focus largely on more salient public health challenges such as water and sanitation, infectious diseases, and housing. Using post-earthquake Haiti as the example case, this commentary explores air quality challenges in the developing world, highlighting concerns related to infrastructure damage from post-conflict and disaster settings. We contend that there is a growing and presently unmet need for further research and attention from the global health community to address these issues. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seismic Moment, Seismic Energy, and Source Duration of Slow Earthquakes: Application of Brownian slow earthquake model to three major subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ide, Satoshi; Maury, Julie

2018-04-01

Tectonic tremors, low-frequency earthquakes, very low-frequency earthquakes, and slow slip events are all regarded as components of broadband slow earthquakes, which can be modeled as a stochastic process using Brownian motion. Here we show that the Brownian slow earthquake model provides theoretical relationships among the seismic moment, seismic energy, and source duration of slow earthquakes and that this model explains various estimates of these quantities in three major subduction zones: Japan, Cascadia, and Mexico. While the estimates for these three regions are similar at the seismological frequencies, the seismic moment rates are significantly different in the geodetic observation. This difference is ascribed to the difference in the characteristic times of the Brownian slow earthquake model, which is controlled by the width of the source area. We also show that the model can include non-Gaussian fluctuations, which better explains recent findings of a near-constant source duration for low-frequency earthquake families.

Using earthquake clusters to identify fracture zones at Puna geothermal field, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, A.; Shalev, E.; Malin, P.; Kenedi, C. L.

2010-12-01

The actively producing Puna geothermal system (PGS) is located on the Kilauea East Rift Zone (ERZ), which extends out from the active Kilauea volcano on Hawaii. In the Puna area the rift trend is identified as NE-SW from surface expressions of normal faulting with a corresponding strike; at PGS the surface expression offsets in a left step, but no rift perpendicular faulting is observed. An eight station borehole seismic network has been installed in the area of the geothermal system. Since June 2006, a total of 6162 earthquakes have been located close to or inside the geothermal system. The spread of earthquake locations follows the rift trend, but down rift to the NE of PGS almost no earthquakes are observed. Most earthquakes located within the PGS range between 2-3 km depth. Up rift to the SW of PGS the number of events decreases and the depth range increases to 3-4 km. All initial locations used Hypoinverse71 and showed no trends other than the dominant rift parallel. Double difference relocation of all earthquakes, using both catalog and cross-correlation, identified one large cluster but could not conclusively identify trends within the cluster. A large number of earthquake waveforms showed identifiable shear wave splitting. For five stations out of the six where shear wave splitting was observed, the dominant polarization direction was rift parallel. Two of the five stations also showed a smaller rift perpendicular signal. The sixth station (located close to the area of the rift offset) displayed a N-S polarization, approximately halfway between rift parallel and perpendicular. The shear wave splitting time delays indicate that fracture density is higher at the PGS compared to the surrounding ERZ. Correlation co-efficient clustering with independent P and S wave windows was used to identify clusters based on similar earthquake waveforms. In total, 40 localized clusters containing ten or more events were identified. The largest cluster was located in the

Beach ridges as paleoseismic indicators of abrupt coastal subsidence during subduction zone earthquakes, and implications for Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone paleoseismology, southeast coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelsey, Harvey M.; Witter, Robert C.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Briggs, Richard; Nelson, Alan R.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Corbett, D. Reide

2015-01-01

The Kenai section of the eastern Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone straddles two areas of high slip in the 1964 great Alaska earthquake and is the least studied of the three megathrust segments (Kodiak, Kenai, Prince William Sound) that ruptured in 1964. Investigation of two coastal sites in the eastern part of the Kenai segment, on the southeast coast of the Kenai Peninsula, identified evidence for two subduction zone earthquakes that predate the 1964 earthquake. Both coastal sites provide paleoseismic data through inferred coseismic subsidence of wetlands and associated subsidence-induced erosion of beach ridges. At Verdant Cove, paleo-beach ridges record the paleoseismic history; whereas at Quicksand Cove, buried soils in drowned coastal wetlands are the primary indicators of paleoearthquake occurrence and age. The timing of submergence and death of trees mark the oldest earthquake at Verdant Cove that is consistent with the age of a well documented ∼900-year-ago subduction zone earthquake that ruptured the Prince William Sound segment of the megathrust to the east and the Kodiak segment to the west. Soils buried within the last 400–450 years mark the penultimate earthquake on the southeast coast of the Kenai Peninsula. The penultimate earthquake probably occurred before AD 1840 from its absence in Russian historical accounts. The penultimate subduction zone earthquake on the Kenai segment did not rupture in conjunction with the Prince William Sound to the northeast. Therefore the Kenai segment, which is presently creeping, can rupture independently of the adjacent Prince William Sound segment that is presently locked.

Possible control of subduction zone slow-earthquake periodicity by silica enrichment.

PubMed

Audet, Pascal; Bürgmann, Roland

2014-06-19

Seismic and geodetic observations in subduction zone forearcs indicate that slow earthquakes, including episodic tremor and slip, recur at intervals of less than six months to more than two years. In Cascadia, slow slip is segmented along strike and tremor data show a gradation from large, infrequent slip episodes to small, frequent slip events with increasing depth of the plate interface. Observations and models of slow slip and tremor require the presence of near-lithostatic pore-fluid pressures in slow-earthquake source regions; however, direct evidence of factors controlling the variability in recurrence times is elusive. Here we compile seismic data from subduction zone forearcs exhibiting recurring slow earthquakes and show that the average ratio of compressional (P)-wave velocity to shear (S)-wave velocity (vP/vS) of the overlying forearc crust ranges between 1.6 and 2.0 and is linearly related to the average recurrence time of slow earthquakes. In northern Cascadia, forearc vP/vS values decrease with increasing depth of the plate interface and with decreasing tremor-episode recurrence intervals. Low vP/vS values require a large addition of quartz in a mostly mafic forearc environment. We propose that silica enrichment varying from 5 per cent to 15 per cent by volume from slab-derived fluids and upward mineralization in quartz veins can explain the range of observed vP/vS values as well as the downdip decrease in vP/vS. The solubility of silica depends on temperature, and deposition prevails near the base of the forearc crust. We further propose that the strong temperature dependence of healing and permeability reduction in silica-rich fault gouge via dissolution-precipitation creep can explain the reduction in tremor recurrence time with progressive silica enrichment. Lower gouge permeability at higher temperatures leads to faster fluid overpressure development and low effective fault-normal stress, and therefore shorter recurrence times. Our results also

Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

2014-12-01

Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

Stress on the seismogenic and deep creep plate interface during the earthquake cycle in subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruff, Larry J.

2001-04-01

The deep creep plate interface extends from the down-dip edge of the seismogenic zone down to the base of the overlying lithosphere in subduction zones. Seismogenic/deep creep zone interaction during the earthquake cycle produces spatial and temporal variations in strains within the surrounding elastic material. Strain observations in the Nankai subduction zone show distinct deformation styles in the co-seismic, post-seismic, and inter-seismic phases associated with the 1946 great earthquake. The most widely used kinematic model to match geodetic observations has been a 2-D Savage-type model where a plate interface is placed in an elastic half-space and co-seismic slip occurs in the upper seismogenic portion of the interface, while inter-seismic deformation is modeled by a locked seismogenic zone and a constant slip velocity across the deep creep interface. Here, I use the simplest possible 2-D mechanical model with just two blocks to study the stress interaction between the seismogenic and deep creep zones. The seismogenic zone behaves as a stick-slip interface where co-seismic slip or stress drop constrain the model. A linear constitutive law for the deep creep zone connects the shear stress (σ) to the slip velocity across the plate interface (s') with the material property of interface viscosity (ζ ) as: σ = ζ s'. The analytic solution for the steady-state two-block model produces simple formulas that connect some spatially-averaged geodetic observations to model quantities. Aside from the basic subduction zone geometry, the key observed parameter is τ, the characteristic time of the rapid post-seismic slip in the deep creep interface. Observations of τ range from about 5 years (Nankai and Alaska) to 15 years (Chile). The simple model uses these values for τ to produce estimates for ζ that range from 8.4 × 1013 Pa/m/s (in Nankai) to 6.5 × 1014 Pa/m/s (in Chile). Then, the model predicts that the shear stress acting on deep creep interface averaged over

Earthquake-driven fluid flow rates inferred from borehole temperature measurements within the Japan Trench plate boundary fault zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, P. M.; Brodsky, E. E.

2016-12-01

Using borehole sub-seafloor temperature measurements, we have recently identified signatures suggestive of earthquake-driven fluid pulses within the Japan Trench plate boundary fault zone during a major aftershock sequence. Here we use numerical models to show that these signatures are consistent with time-varying fluid flow rates out of permeable zones within the formation into the borehole annulus. In addition, we also identify an apparent time-varying sensitivity of whether suspected fluid pulses occur in response to earthquakes of a given magnitude and distance. The results suggest a damage and healing process and therefore provides a mechanism to allow for a disproportionate amount of heat and chemical transport in the short time frame after an earthquake. Our observations come from an observatory installed across the main plate boundary fault as part of IODP's Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project (JFAST) following the March 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake. It operated from July 2012 - April 2013 during which a Mw 7.3 earthquake and numerous aftershocks occurred. High-resolution temperature time series data reveal spatially correlated transients in response to earthquakes with distinct patterns interpreted to reflect advection by transient pulses of fluid flow from permeable zones into the borehole annulus. Typical transients involve perturbations over 12 m with increases of 10 mK that build over 0.1 days at shallower depths and decreases at deeper depths. They are consistently centered around 792.5 m below seafloor (mbsf) where a secondary fault and permeable zone have been independently identified within the damage zone above the main plate boundary fault at 820 mbsf . Model simulations suggest transient flow rates of up to 10-3m/s from the formation that quickly decrease. Comparison of characteristics of earthquakes identified in nearby ocean bottom pressure measurements suggest there is not a clear relationship between fluid pulses and static strain. There

Earthquake Complex Network applied along the Chilean Subduction Zone.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, F.; Pasten, D.; Comte, D.

2017-12-01

In recent years the earthquake complex networks have been used as a useful tool to describe and characterize the behavior of seismicity. The earthquake complex network is built in space, dividing the three dimensional space in cubic cells. If the cubic cell contains a hypocenter, we call this cell like a node. The connections between nodes follows the time sequence of the occurrence of the seismic events. In this sense, we have a spatio-temporal configuration of a specific region using the seismicity in that zone. In this work, we are applying complex networks to characterize the subduction zone along the coast of Chile using two networks: a directed and an undirected network. The directed network takes in consideration the time-direction of the connections, that is very important for the connectivity of the network: we are considering the connectivity, ki of the i-th node, like the number of connections going out from the node i and we add the self-connections (if two seismic events occurred successive in time in the same cubic cell, we have a self-connection). The undirected network is the result of remove the direction of the connections and the self-connections from the directed network. These two networks were building using seismic data events recorded by CSN (Chilean Seismological Center) in Chile. This analysis includes the last largest earthquakes occurred in Iquique (April 2014) and in Illapel (September 2015). The result for the directed network shows a change in the value of the critical exponent along the Chilean coast. The result for the undirected network shows a small-world behavior without important changes in the topology of the network. Therefore, the complex network analysis shows a new form to characterize the Chilean subduction zone with a simple method that could be compared with another methods to obtain more details about the behavior of the seismicity in this region.

Long-term perspectives on giant earthquakes and tsunamis at subduction zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Satake, K.; Atwater, B.F.; ,

2007-01-01

Histories of earthquakes and tsunamis, inferred from geological evidence, aid in anticipating future catastrophes. This natural warning system now influences building codes and tsunami planning in the United States, Canada, and Japan, particularly where geology demonstrates the past occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis larger than those known from written and instrumental records. Under favorable circumstances, paleoseismology can thus provide long-term advisories of unusually large tsunamis. The extraordinary Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 resulted from a fault rupture more than 1000 km in length that included and dwarfed fault patches that had broken historically during lesser shocks. Such variation in rupture mode, known from written history at a few subduction zones, is also characteristic of earthquake histories inferred from geology on the Pacific Rim. Copyright ?? 2007 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Prospective Evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate Model (GEAR1) Earthquake Forecast: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strader, Anne; Schorlemmer, Danijel; Beutin, Thomas

2017-04-01

The Global Earthquake Activity Rate Model (GEAR1) is a hybrid seismicity model, constructed from a loglinear combination of smoothed seismicity from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) earthquake catalog and geodetic strain rates (Global Strain Rate Map, version 2.1). For the 2005-2012 retrospective evaluation period, GEAR1 outperformed both parent strain rate and smoothed seismicity forecasts. Since 1. October 2015, GEAR1 has been prospectively evaluated by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) testing center. Here, we present initial one-year test results of the GEAR1, GSRM and GSRM2.1, as well as localized evaluation of GEAR1 performance. The models were evaluated on the consistency in number (N-test), spatial (S-test) and magnitude (M-test) distribution of forecasted and observed earthquakes, as well as overall data consistency (CL-, L-tests). Performance at target earthquake locations was compared between models using the classical paired T-test and its non-parametric equivalent, the W-test, to determine if one model could be rejected in favor of another at the 0.05 significance level. For the evaluation period from 1. October 2015 to 1. October 2016, the GEAR1, GSRM and GSRM2.1 forecasts pass all CSEP likelihood tests. Comparative test results show statistically significant improvement of GEAR1 performance over both strain rate-based forecasts, both of which can be rejected in favor of GEAR1. Using point process residual analysis, we investigate the spatial distribution of differences in GEAR1, GSRM and GSRM2 model performance, to identify regions where the GEAR1 model should be adjusted, that could not be inferred from CSEP test results. Furthermore, we investigate whether the optimal combination of smoothed seismicity and strain rates remains stable over space and time.

Public release of the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storchak, Dmitry A.; Di Giacomo, Domenico; Bondára, István; Engdahl, E. Robert; Harris, James; Lee, William H.K.; Villaseñor, Antonio; Bormann, Peter

2013-01-01

The International Seismological Centre–Global Earthquake Model (ISC–GEM) Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900–2009) is the result of a special effort to substantially extend and improve currently existing global catalogs to serve the requirements of specific user groups who assess and model seismic hazard and risk. The data from the ISC–GEM Catalogue would be used worldwide yet will prove absolutely essential in those regions where a high seismicity level strongly correlates with a high population density.

Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

2008-01-01

Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

How complete is the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Catalog?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

The International Seismological Centre, in collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model effort, has released a new global earthquake catalog, covering the time period from 1900 through the end of 2009. In order to use this catalog for global earthquake studies, I determined the magnitude of completeness (Mc) as a function of time by dividing the earthquakes shallower than 60 km into 7 time periods based on major changes in catalog processing and data availability and applying 4 objective methods to determine Mc, with uncertainties determined by non-parametric bootstrapping. Deeper events were divided into 2 time periods. Due to differences between the 4 methods, the final Mc was determined subjectively by examining the features that each method focused on in both the cumulative and binned magnitude frequency distributions. The time periods and Mc values for shallow events are: 1900-1917, Mc=7.7; 1918-1939, Mc=7.0; 1940-1954, Mc=6.8; 1955-1963, Mc=6.5; 1964-1975, Mc=6.0; 1976-2003, Mc=5.8; and 2004-2009, Mc=5.7. Using these Mc values for the longest time periods they are valid for (e.g. 1918-2009, 1940-2009,…) the shallow data fits a Gutenberg-Richter distribution with b=1.05 and a=8.3, within 1 standard deviation, with no declustering. The exception is for time periods that include 1900-1917 in which there are only 33 events with M≥ Mc and for those few data b=2.15±0.46. That result calls for further investigations for this time period, ideally having a larger number of earthquakes. For deep events, the results are Mc=7.1 for 1900-1963, although the early data are problematic; and Mc=5.7 for 1964-2009. For that later time period, b=0.99 and a=7.3.

GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

2009-04-01

components are in the planning stages, such as the developments of a unified active fault database and earthquake catalog. The flagship activity of GEM's first year is GEM1, a focused pilot project to develop GEM's first hazard and risk modeling products and initial IT infrastructure, starting in January 2009 and ending in March 2010. GEM1 will provide core capabilities for the present and key knowledge for future development of the full GEM computing Environment and product set. We will build GEM1 largely using existing tools and datasets, connected through a unified IT infrastructure, in order to bring GEM's initial capabilities online as rapidly as possible. The Swiss Seismological Service at ETH-Zurich is leading the GEM1 effort in cooperation with partners around the world. We anticipate that GEM1's products will include: • A global compilation of regional seismic source zone models in one or more common representations • Global synthetic earthquake catalogs for use in hazard calculations • Initial set of regional and global catalogues for validation • Global hazard models in map and database forms • First compilation of global vulnerabilities and fragilities • Tools for exposure and loss assessment • Validation of results and software for existing risk assessment tools to be used in future GEM stages • Demonstration risk scenarios for target cities • First version of GEM IT infrastructure All these products will be made freely available to the greatest extent possible. For more information on GEM and GEM1, please visit http://www.globalquakemodel.org.

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

Geodetic slip model of the 3 September 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, earthquake: Evidence for fault‐zone collapse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, Fred; Wicks, Charles W.; Schoenball, Martin; Ellsworth, William L.; Murray, Mark

2017-01-01

The 3 September 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake in northern Oklahoma is the largest earthquake ever recorded in Oklahoma. The coseismic deformation was measured with both Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System (GPS), with measureable signals of order 1 cm and 1 mm, respectively. We derive a coseismic slip model from Sentinel‐1A and Radarsat 2 interferograms and GPS static offsets, dominated by distributed left‐lateral strike slip on a primary west‐northwest–east‐southeast‐trending subvertical plane, whereas strike slip is concentrated near the hypocenter (5.6 km depth), with maximum slip of ∼1  m located slightly east and down‐dip of the hypocenter. Based on systematic misfits of observed interferogram line‐of‐sight (LoS) displacements, with LoS based on shear‐dislocation models, a few decimeters of fault‐zone collapse are inferred in the hypocentral region where coseismic slip was the largest. This may represent the postseismic migration of large volumes of fluid away from the high‐slip areas, made possible by the creation of a temporary high‐permeability damage zone around the fault.

Weak ductile shear zone beneath the western North Anatolian Fault Zone: inferences from earthquake cycle model constrained by geodetic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamasaki, T.; Wright, T. J.; Houseman, G. A.

2013-12-01

After large earthquakes, rapid postseismic transient motions are commonly observed. Later in the loading cycle, strain is typically focused in narrow regions around the fault. In simple two-layer models of the loading cycle for strike-slip faults, rapid post-seismic transients require low viscosities beneath the elastic layer, but localized strain later in the cycle implies high viscosities in the crust. To explain this apparent paradox, complex transient rheologies have been invoked. Here we test an alternative hypothesis in which spatial variations in material properties of the crust can explain the geodetic observations. We use a 3D viscoelastic finite element code to examine two simple models of periodic fault slip: a stratified model in which crustal viscosity decreases exponentially with depth below an upper elastic layer, and a block model in which a low viscosity domain centered beneath the fault is embedded in a higher viscosity background representing normal crust. We test these models using GPS data acquired before and after the 1999 Izmit/Duzce earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey). The model with depth-dependent viscosity can show both high postseismic velocities, and preseismic localization of the deformation, if the viscosity contrast from top to bottom of layer exceeds a factor of about 104. However, with no lateral variations in viscosity, this model cannot explain the proximity to the fault of maximum postseismic velocities. In contrast, the model which includes a localized weak zone beneath the faulted elastic lid can explain all the observations, if the weak zone extends down to mid-crustal levels and outward to 10 or 20 km from the fault. The non-dimensional ratio of relaxation time to earthquake repeat time, τ/Δt, is the critical parameter in controlling the observed deformation. In the weak-zone model, τ/Δt should be in the range 0.005 to 0.01 in the weak domain, and larger than ~ 1.0 elsewhere. This implies a viscosity

Use of Fault Displacement Vector to Identify Future Zones of Seismicity: An Example from the Earthquakes of Nepal Himalayas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naim, F.; Mukherjee, M. K.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes occur due to fault slip in the subsurface. They can occur either as interplate or intraplate earthquakes. The region of study is the Nepal Himalayas that defines the boundary of Indian-Eurasian plate and houses the focus of the most devastating earthquakes. The aim of the study was to analyze all the earthquakes that occurred in the Nepal Himalayas upto May 12, 2015 earthquake in order to mark the regions still under stress and vulnerable for future earthquakes. Three different fault systems in the Nepal Himalayas define the tectonic set up of the area. They are: (1) Main Frontal Thrust(MFT), (2) Main Central Thrust(MCT) and (3) Main Boundary Thrust(MBT) that extend from NW to SE. Most of the earthquakes were observed to occur between the MBT and MCT. Since the thrust faults are dipping towards NE, the focus of most of the earthquakes lies on the MBT. The methodology includes estimating the dip of the fault by considering the depths of different earthquake events and their corresponding distance from the MBT. In order to carry out stress analysis on the fault, the beach ball diagrams associated with the different earthquakes were plotted on a map. Earthquakes in the NW and central region of the fault zone were associated with reverse fault slip while that on the South-Eastern part were associated with a strike slip component. The direction of net slip on the fault associated with the different earthquakes was known and from this a 3D slip diagram of the fault was constructed. The regions vulnerable for future earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya were demarcated on the 3D slip diagram of the fault. Such zones were marked owing to the fact that the slips due to earthquakes cause the adjoining areas to come under immense stress and this stress is directly proportional to the amount of slip occuring on the fault. These vulnerable zones were in turn projected on the map to show their position and are predicted to contain the epicenter of the future earthquakes.

Reconciling postseismic and interseismic surface deformation around strike-slip faults: Earthquake-cycle models with finite ruptures and viscous shear zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hearn, E. H.

2013-12-01

Geodetic surface velocity data show that after an energetic but brief phase of postseismic deformation, surface deformation around most major strike-slip faults tends to be localized and stationary, and can be modeled with a buried elastic dislocation creeping at or near the Holocene slip rate. Earthquake-cycle models incorporating an elastic layer over a Maxwell viscoelastic halfspace cannot explain this, even when the earliest postseismic deformation is ignored or modeled (e.g., as frictional afterslip). Models with heterogeneously distributed low-viscosity materials or power-law rheologies perform better, but to explain all phases of earthquake-cycle deformation, Burgers viscoelastic materials with extreme differences between their Maxwell and Kelvin element viscosities seem to be required. I present a suite of earthquake-cycle models to show that postseismic and interseismic deformation may be reconciled for a range of lithosphere architectures and rheologies if finite rupture length is taken into account. These models incorporate high-viscosity lithosphere optionally cut by a viscous shear zone, and a lower-viscosity mantle asthenosphere (all with a range of viscoelastic rheologies and parameters). Characteristic earthquakes with Mw = 7.0 - 7.9 are investigated, with interseismic intervals adjusted to maintain the same slip rate (10, 20 or 40 mm/yr). I find that a high-viscosity lower crust/uppermost mantle (or a high viscosity per unit width viscous shear zone at these depths) is required for localized and stationary interseismic deformation. For Mw = 7.9 characteristic earthquakes, the shear zone viscosity per unit width in the lower crust and uppermost mantle must exceed about 10^16 Pa s /m. For a layered viscoelastic model the lower crust and uppermost mantle effective viscosity must exceed about 10^20 Pa s. The range of admissible shear zone and lower lithosphere rheologies broadens considerably for faults producing more frequent but smaller

Shallow depth of seismogenic coupling in southern Mexico: implications for the maximum size of earthquakes in the subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suárez, Gerardo; Sánchez, Osvaldo

1996-01-01

Studies of locally recorded microearthquakes and the centroidal depths of the largest earthquakes analyzed using teleseismic data show that the maximum depth of thrust faulting along the Mexican subduction zone is anomalously shallow. This observed maximum depth of about 25 ± 5 km is about half of that observed in most subduction zones of the world. A leveling line that crosses the rupture zone of the 19 September 1985 Michoacan event was revisited after the earthquake and it shows anomalously low deformation during the earthquake. The comparison between the observed coseismic uplift and dislocation models of the seismogenic interplate contact that extend to depths ranging from 20 to 40 km shows that the maximum depth at which seismic slip took place is about 20 km. This unusually shallow and narrow zone of seismogenic coupling apparently results in the occurrence of thrust events along the Mexican subduction zone that are smaller than would be expected for a trench where a relatively young slab subducts at a rapid rate of relative motion. A comparison with the Chilean subduction zone shows that the plate interface in Mexico is half that in Chile, not only in the down-dip extent of the seismogenic zone of plate contact, but also in the distance of the trench from the coast and in the thickness of the upper continental plate. It appears that the narrow plate contact produced by this particular plate geometry in Mexico is the controlling variable defining the size of the largest characteristic earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone.

Tularemia and plague survey in rodents in an earthquake zone in southeastern Iran

PubMed Central

Gyuranecz, Miklós

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Earthquakes are one the most common natural disasters that lead to increased mortality and morbidity from transmissible diseases, partially because the rodents displaced by an earthquake can lead to an increased rate of disease transmission. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of plague and tularemia in rodents in the earthquake zones in southeastern Iran. METHODS: In April 2013, a research team was dispatched to explore the possible presence of diseases in rodents displaced by a recent earthquake magnitude 7.7 around the cities of Khash and Saravan in Sistan and Baluchestan Province. Rodents were trapped near and in the earthquake zone, in a location where an outbreak of tularemia was reported in 2007. Rodent serums were tested for a serological survey using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: In the 13 areas that were studied, nine rodents were caught over a total of 200 trap-days. Forty-eight fleas and 10 ticks were obtained from the rodents. The ticks were from the Hyalomma genus and the fleas were from the Xenopsylla genus. All the trapped rodents were Tatera indica. Serological results were negative for plague, but the serum agglutination test was positive for tularemia in one of the rodents. Tatera indica has never been previously documented to be involved in the transmission of tularemia. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence of the plague cycle was found in the rodents of the area, but evidence was found of tularemia infection in rodents, as demonstrated by a positive serological test for tularemia in one rodent. PMID:26602769

Evidence of shallow fault zone strengthening after the 1992 M7.5 Landers, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Y.-G.; Vidale, J.E.; Aki, K.; Xu, Fei; Burdette, T.

1998-01-01

Repeated seismic surveys of the Landers, California, fault zone that ruptured in the magnitude (M) 7.5 earthquake of 1992 reveal an increase in seismic velocity with time. P, S, and fault zone trapped waves were excited by near-surface explosions in two locations in 1994 and 1996, and were recorded on two linear, three-component seismic arrays deployed across the Johnson Valley fault trace. The travel times of P and S waves for identical shot-receiver pairs decreased by 0.5 to 1.5 percent from 1994 to 1996, with the larger changes at stations located within the fault zone. These observations indicate that the shallow Johnson Valley fault is strengthening after the main shock, most likely because of closure of cracks that were opened by the 1992 earthquake. The increase in velocity is consistent with the prevalence of dry over wet cracks and with a reduction in the apparent crack density near the fault zone by approximately 1.0 percent from 1994 to 1996.

Fault Zone Permeability Decrease Following Large Earthquakes in a Hydrothermal System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Zheming; Zhang, Shouchuan; Yan, Rui; Wang, Guangcai

2018-02-01

Seismic wave shaking-induced permeability enhancement in the shallow crust has been widely observed. Permeability decrease, however, is seldom reported. In this study, we document coseismic discharge and temperature decrease in a hot spring following the 1996 Lijiang Mw 7.0 and the 2004 Mw 9.0 earthquakes in the Balazhang geothermal field. We use three different models to constrain the permeability change and the mechanism of coseismic discharge decrease, and we use an end-member mixing model for the coseismic temperature change. Our results show that the earthquake-induced permeability decrease in the fault zone reduced the recharge from deep hot water, which may be the mechanism that explains the coseismic discharge and temperature responses. The changes in the hot spring response reflect the dynamic changes in the hydrothermal system; in the future, the earthquake-induced permeability decrease should be considered when discussing controls on permeability.

Coseismic changes of gravitational potential energy induced by global earthquakes based on spherical-Earth elastic dislocation theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Changyi; Chao, B. Fong

2017-05-01

We compute the coseismic gravitational potential energy Eg change using the spherical-Earth elastic dislocation theory and either the fault model treated as a point source or the finite fault model. The rate of the accumulative Eg loss produced by historical earthquakes from 1976 to 2016 (about 42,000 events) using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Solution catalogue is estimated to be on the order of -2.1 × 1020 J/a, or -6.7 TW (1 TW = 1012 W), amounting to 15% in the total terrestrial heat flow. The energy loss is dominated by the thrust faulting, especially the megathrust earthquakes such as the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.0) and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.1). It is notable that the very deep focus events, the 1994 Bolivia earthquake (Mw 8.2) and the 2013 Okhotsk earthquake (Mw 8.3), produced significant overall coseismic Eg gain according to our calculation. The accumulative coseismic Eg is mainly lost in the mantle of the Earth and also lost in the core of the Earth but with a relatively smaller magnitude. By contrast, the crust of the Earth gains gravitational potential energy cumulatively because of the coseismic deformations. We further investigate the tectonic signature in the coseismic crustal Eg changes in some complex tectonic zone, such as Taiwan region and the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. We found that the coseismic Eg change is consistent with the regional tectonic character.

Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2006-03-01

The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

Holocene earthquakes and right-lateral slip on the left-lateral Darrington-Devils Mountain fault zone, northern Puget Sound, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Personius, Stephen F.; Briggs, Richard W.; Nelson, Alan R.; Schermer, Elizabeth R; Maharrey, J. Zebulon; Sherrod, Brian; Spaulding, Sarah A.; Bradley, Lee-Ann

2014-01-01

Sources of seismic hazard in the Puget Sound region of northwestern Washington include deep earthquakes associated with the Cascadia subduction zone, and shallow earthquakes associated with some of the numerous crustal (upper-plate) faults that crisscross the region. Our paleoseismic investigations on one of the more prominent crustal faults, the Darrington–Devils Mountain fault zone, included trenching of fault scarps developed on latest Pleistocene glacial sediments and analysis of cores from an adjacent wetland near Lake Creek, 14 km southeast of Mount Vernon, Washington. Trench excavations revealed evidence of a single earthquake, radiocarbon dated to ca. 2 ka, but extensive burrowing and root mixing of sediments within 50–100 cm of the ground surface may have destroyed evidence of other earthquakes. Cores in a small wetland adjacent to our trench site provided stratigraphic evidence (formation of a laterally extensive, prograding wedge of hillslope colluvium) of an earthquake ca. 2 ka, which we interpret to be the same earthquake documented in the trenches. A similar colluvial wedge lower in the wetland section provides possible evidence for a second earthquake dated to ca. 8 ka. Three-dimensional trenching techniques revealed evidence for 2.2 ± 1.1 m of right-lateral offset of a glacial outwash channel margin, and 45–70 cm of north-side-up vertical separation across the fault zone. These offsets indicate a net slip vector of 2.3 ± 1.1 m, plunging 14° west on a 286°-striking, 90°-dipping fault plane. The dominant right-lateral sense of slip is supported by the presence of numerous Riedel R shears preserved in two of our trenches, and probable right-lateral offset of a distinctive bedrock fault zone in a third trench. Holocene north-side-up, right-lateral oblique slip is opposite the south-side-up, left-lateral oblique sense of slip inferred from geologic mapping of Eocene and older rocks along the fault zone. The cause of this slip reversal is

Forecast model for great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuart, W.D.

1988-01-01

An earthquake instability model is formulated for recurring great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone in southwest Japan. The model is quasistatic, two-dimensional, and has a displacement and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at the fault plane. A constant rate of fault slip at depth represents forcing due to relative motion of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates. The model simulates fault slip and stress for all parts of repeated earthquake cycles, including post-, inter-, pre- and coseismic stages. Calculated ground uplift is in agreement with most of the main features of elevation changes observed before and after the M=8.1 1946 Nankaido earthquake. In model simulations, accelerating fault slip has two time-scales. The first time-scale is several years long and is interpreted as an intermediate-term precursor. The second time-scale is a few days long and is interpreted as a short-term precursor. Accelerating fault slip on both time-scales causes anomalous elevation changes of the ground surface over the fault plane of 100 mm or less within 50 km of the fault trace. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Probability Assessment of Mega-thrust Earthquakes in Global Subduction Zones　-from the View of Slip Deficit-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikuta, R.; Mitsui, Y.; Ando, M.

2014-12-01

We studied inter-plate slip history for about 100 years using earthquake catalogs. On assumption that each earthquake has stick-slip patch centered in its centroid, we regard cumulative seismic slips around the centroid as representing the inter-plate dislocation. We evaluated the slips on the stick-slip patches of over-M5-class earthquakes prior to three recent mega-thrust earthquakes, the 2004 Sumatra (Mw9.2), the 2010 Chile (Mw8.8), and the 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) around them. Comparing the cumulative seismic slips with the plate convergence, the slips before the mega-thrust events are significantly short in large area corresponding to the size of the mega-thrust events. We also researched cumulative seismic slips after other three mega-thrust earthquakes occurred in this 100 years, the 1952 Kamchatka (Mw9.0), the 1960 Chile (Mw9.5), the 1964 Alaska (Mw9.2). The cumulative slips have been significantly short in and around the focal area after their occurrence. The result should reflect persistency of the strong or/and large inter-plate coupled area capable of mega-thrust earthquakes. We applied the same procedure to global subduction zones to find that 21 regions including the focal area of above mega-thrust earthquakes show slip deficit over large area corresponding to the size of M9-class earthquakes. Considering that at least six M9-class earthquakes occurred in this 100 years and each recurrence interval should be 500-1000 years, it would not be surprised that from five to ten times of the already known regions (30 to 60 regions) are capable of M9 class earthquakes. The 21 regions as expected M9 class focal areas in our study is less than 5 to 10 times of the known 6, some of these regions may be divided into a few M9 class focal area because they extend to much larger area than typical M9 class focal area.

Bayesian probabilities for Mw 9.0+ earthquakes in the Aleutian Islands from a regionally scaled global rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, Rhett; Frazer, L. Neil; Templeton, William J.

2016-05-01

We use the global rate of Mw ≥ 9.0 earthquakes, and standard Bayesian procedures, to estimate the probability of such mega events in the Aleutian Islands, where they pose a significant risk to Hawaii. We find that the probability of such an earthquake along the Aleutians island arc is 6.5% to 12% over the next 50 years (50% credibility interval) and that the annualized risk to Hawai'i is about $30 M. Our method (the regionally scaled global rate method or RSGR) is to scale the global rate of Mw 9.0+ events in proportion to the fraction of global subduction (units of area per year) that takes place in the Aleutians. The RSGR method assumes that Mw 9.0+ events are a Poisson process with a rate that is both globally and regionally stationary on the time scale of centuries, and it follows the principle of Burbidge et al. (2008) who used the product of fault length and convergence rate, i.e., the area being subducted per annum, to scale the Poisson rate for the GSS to sections of the Indonesian subduction zone. Before applying RSGR to the Aleutians, we first apply it to five other regions of the global subduction system where its rate predictions can be compared with those from paleotsunami, paleoseismic, and geoarcheology data. To obtain regional rates from paleodata, we give a closed-form solution for the probability density function of the Poisson rate when event count and observation time are both uncertain.

Periodic Viscous Shear Heating Instability in Fine-Grained Shear Zones: Possible Mechanism for Intermediate Depth Earthquakes and Slow Earthquakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelemen, P. B.; Hirth, G.

2004-12-01

creep and grain boundary sliding as a function of stress and strain, and undergoes diffusive growth during diffusion creep. For strain rates ca E-13 per second and initial temperatures ca 600 to 850 C, this model produces periodic viscous shear heating events with periods of 100's of years. Strain rates during these events approach 1 per second as temperatures reach 1400 C, so future models will incorporate inertial terms in the stress. Cooling between events returns the shear zone almost to its initial temperature, but ultimately shear zone temperature between events exceeds 850 C resulting in stable viscous creep. Back of the envelope calculations based on model results support the view that viscous deformation in both shear zone and host will be mainly via grain-size sensitive creep, and thus deformation will remain localized in shear zones. Similarly, we infer that inertial terms will remain small. Future models will test and quantify these inferences. The simple model described above provides an attractive explanation for intermediate-depth earthquakes, especially those in subduction zones that occur in a narrow thermal window (e.g., Hacker et al JGR 2003). We think that a "smoother"periodic instability might be produced via the same mechanism in weaker materials, which could provide a viscous mechanism for some slow earthquakes. By AGU, we will construct a second, simple model using quartz rheology to investigate this. Finally, coupling of viscous shear heating instabilities in the shallow mantle with brittle stick-slip deformation in the weaker, overlying crust may influence earthquake frequency.

Fracture Modes and Identification of Fault Zones in Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling Boreholes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, C.; Pan, H.; Zhao, P.; Qin, R.; Peng, L.

2017-12-01

After suffering from the disaster of Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008, scientists are eager to figure out the structure of formation, the geodynamic processes of faults and the mechanism of earthquake in Wenchuan by drilling five holes into the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault zone and Anxian-Guanxian fault zone. Fractures identification and in-situ stress determination can provide abundant information for formation evaluation and earthquake study. This study describe all the fracture modes in the five boreholes on the basis of cores and image logs, and summarize the response characteristics of fractures in conventional logs. The results indicate that the WFSD boreholes encounter enormous fractures, including natural fractures and induced fractures, and high dip-angle conductive fractures are the most common fractures. The maximum horizontal stress trends along the borehole are deduced as NWW-SEE according to orientations of borehole breakouts and drilling-induced fractures, which is nearly parallel to the strikes of the younger natural fracture sets. Minor positive deviations of AC (acoustic log) and negative deviation of DEN (density log) demonstrate their responses to fracture, followed by CNL (neutron log), resistivity logs and GR (gamma ray log) at different extent of intensity. Besides, considering the fact that the reliable methods for identifying fracture zone, like seismic, core recovery and image logs, can often be hampered by their high cost and limited application, this study propose a method by using conventional logs, which are low-cost and available in even old wells. We employ wavelet decomposition to extract the high frequency information of conventional logs and reconstruction a new log in special format of enhance fracture responses and eliminate nonfracture influence. Results reveal that the new log shows obvious deviations in fault zones, which confirm the potential of conventional logs in fracture zone identification.

Rapid intraplate strain accumulation in the New Madrid seismic zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, L.; Zoback, M.D.; Segall, P.

1992-09-01

Remeasurement of a triangulation network in the southern part of the New Madrid seismic zone with the Global Positioning System has revealed rapid crustal strain accumulation since the 1950s. This area experienced three large (moment magnitudes greater than 8) earthquakes in 1811 to 1812. The orientation and sense of shear is consistent with right-lateral strike slip motion along a northeast-trending fault zone (as indicated by current seismicity). Detection of crustal strain accumulation may be a useful discriminant for identifying areas where potentially damaging intraplate earthquakes may occur despite the absence of large earthquakes during historic time. 34 refs.

Hidden Earthquake Potential in Plate Boundary Transition Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furlong, Kevin P.; Herman, Matthew; Govers, Rob

2017-04-01

Plate boundaries can exhibit spatially abrupt changes in their long-term tectonic deformation (and associated kinematics) at triple junctions and other sites of changes in plate boundary structure. How earthquake behavior responds to these abrupt tectonic changes is unclear. The situation may be additionally obscured by the effects of superimposed deformational signals - juxtaposed short-term (earthquake cycle) kinematics may combine to produce a net deformational signal that does not reflect intuition about the actual strain accumulation in the region. Two examples of this effect are in the vicinity of the Mendocino triple junction (MTJ) along the west coast of North America, and at the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand. In the region immediately north of the MTJ, GPS-based observed crustal displacements (relative to North America (NAm)) are intermediate between Pacific and Juan de Fuca (JdF) motions. With distance north, these displacements rotate to become more aligned with JdF - NAm displacements, i.e. to motions expected along a coupled subduction interface. The deviation of GPS motions from the coupled subduction interface signal near the MTJ has been previously interpreted to reflect clock-wise rotation of a coastal, crustal block and/or reduced coupling at the southern Cascadia margin. The geologic record of crustal deformation near the MTJ reflects the combined effects of northward crustal shortening (on geologic time scales) associated with the MTJ Crustal Conveyor (Furlong and Govers, 1999) overprinted onto the subduction earthquake cycle signal. With this interpretation, the Cascadia subduction margin appears to be well-coupled along its entire length, consistent with paleo-seismic records of large earthquake ruptures extending to its southern limit. At the Hikurangi to Alpine Fault transition in New Zealand, plate interactions switch from subduction to oblique translation as a consequence of changes in lithospheric structure of

Investigating Along-Strike Variations of Source Parameters for Relocated Thrust Earthquakes Along the Sumatra-Java Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Hariri, M.; Bilek, S. L.; Deshon, H. R.; Engdahl, E. R.

2009-12-01

Some earthquakes generate anomalously large tsunami waves relative to their surface wave magnitudes (Ms). This class of events, known as tsunami earthquakes, is characterized by having a long rupture duration and low radiated energy at long periods. These earthquakes are relatively rare. There have been only 9 documented cases, including 2 in the Java subduction zone (1994 Mw=7.8 and the 2006 Mw=7.7). Several models have been proposed to explain the unexpectedly large tsunami, such as displacement along high-angle splay faults, landslide-induced tsunami due to coseismic shaking, or large seismic slip within low rigidity sediments or weaker material along the shallowest part of the subduction zone. Slow slip has also been suggested along portions of the 2004 Mw=9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake zone. In this study we compute the source parameters of 90 relocated shallow thrust events (Mw 5.1-7.8) along the Sumatra-Java subduction zone including the two Java tsunami earthquakes. Events are relocated using a modification to the Engdahl, van der Hilst and Buland (EHB) earthquake relocation method that incorporates an automated frequency-dependent phase detector. This allows for the use of increased numbers of phase arrival times, especially depth phases, and improves hypocentral locations. Source time functions, rupture duration and depth estimates are determined using multi-station deconvolution of broadband teleseismic P and SH waves. We seek to correlate any along-strike variation in rupture characteristics with tectonic features and rupture characteristics of the previous slow earthquakes along this margin to gain a better understanding of the conditions resulting in slow ruptures. Preliminary results from the analysis of these events show that in addition to depth-dependent variations there are also along-strike variations in rupture duration. We find that along the Java segment, the longer duration event locates in a highly coupled region corresponding to the

Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving PAGER losses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, David J.

2010-01-01

This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER’s overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra–Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability.

100+ years of instrumental seismology: the example of the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storchak, Dmitry; Di Giacomo, Domenico

2015-04-01

Systematic seismological observations of earthquakes using seismic instruments on a global scale began more than 100 years ago. Since then seismologists made many discoveries about the Earth interior and the physics of the earthquakes, also thanks to major developments in the seismic instrumentation deployed around the world. Besides, since the establishment of the first global networks (Milne and Jesuit networks), seismologists around the world stored and exchanged the results of routine observations (e.g., picking of arrival times, amplitude-period measurements, etc.) or more sophisticated analyses (e.g., moment tensor inversion) in seismological bulletins/catalogues. With a project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), the ISC and the Team of International Experts released a new global earthquake catalogue, the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php), which, differently from previous global seismic catalogues, has the unique feature of covering the entire period of instrumental seismology with locations and magnitude re-assessed using modern approaches for the global earthquakes selected for processing (in the current version approximately 21,000). During the 110 years covered by the ISC-GEM catalogue many seismological developments occurred in terms of instrumentation, seismological practice and knowledge of the physics of the earthquakes. In this contribution we give a brief overview of the major milestones characterizing the last 100+ years of instrumental seismology that were relevant for the production of the ISC-GEM catalogue and the major challenges we faced to obtain a catalogue as homogenous as possible.

A new reference global instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900-2009)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giacomo, D.; Engdahl, B.; Bondar, I.; Storchak, D. A.; Villasenor, A.; Bormann, P.; Lee, W.; Dando, B.; Harris, J.

2011-12-01

For seismic hazard studies on a global and/or regional scale, accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of seismicity, the magnitude-frequency relation and the maximum magnitudes is of fundamental importance. However, such information is normally not homogeneous (or not available) for the various seismically active regions of the Earth. To achieve the GEM objectives (www.globalquakemodel.org) of calculating and communicating earthquake risk worldwide, an improved reference global instrumental catalogue for large earthquakes spanning the entire 100+ years period of instrumental seismology is an absolute necessity. To accomplish this task, we apply the most up-to-date techniques and standard observatory practices for computing the earthquake location and magnitude. In particular, the re-location procedure benefits both from the depth determination according to Engdahl and Villaseñor (2002), and the advanced technique recently implemented at the ISC (Bondár and Storchak, 2011) to account for correlated error structure. With regard to magnitude, starting from the re-located hypocenters, the classical surface and body-wave magnitudes are determined following the new IASPEI standards and by using amplitude-period data of phases collected from historical station bulletins (up to 1970), which were not available in digital format before the beginning of this work. Finally, the catalogue will provide moment magnitude values (including uncertainty) for each seismic event via seismic moment, via surface wave magnitude or via other magnitude types using empirical relationships. References Engdahl, E.R., and A. Villaseñor (2002). Global seismicity: 1900-1999. In: International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, eds. W.H.K. Lee, H. Kanamori, J.C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, Part A, 665-690, Academic Press, San Diego. Bondár, I., and D. Storchak (2011). Improved location procedures at the International Seismological Centre, Geophys. J. Int., doi:10.1111/j

Integrated Land- and Underwater-Based Sensors for a Subduction Zone Earthquake Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirenne, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Rogers, G. C.; Henton, J.; Lu, Y.; Moore, T.

2016-12-01

Ocean Networks Canada (ONC — oceannetworks.ca/ ) operates cabled ocean observatories off the coast of British Columbia (BC) to support research and operational oceanography. Recently, ONC has been funded by the Province of BC to deliver an earthquake early warning (EEW) system that integrates offshore and land-based sensors to deliver alerts of incoming ground shaking from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. ONC's cabled seismic network has the unique advantage of being located offshore on either side of the surface expression of the subduction zone. The proximity of ONC's sensors to the fault can result in faster, more effective warnings, which translates into more lives saved, injuries avoided and more ability for mitigative actions to take place.ONC delivers near real-time data from various instrument types simultaneously, providing distinct advantages to seismic monitoring and earthquake early warning. The EEW system consists of a network of sensors, located on the ocean floor and on land, that detect and analyze the initial p-wave of an earthquake as well as the crustal deformation on land during the earthquake sequence. Once the p-wave is detected and characterized, software systems correlate the data streams of the various sensors and deliver alerts to clients through a Common Alerting Protocol-compliant data package. This presentation will focus on the development of the earthquake early warning capacity at ONC. It will describe the seismic sensors and their distribution, the p-wave detection algorithms selected and the overall architecture of the system. It will further overview the plan to achieve operational readiness at project completion.

Earthquake Potential Models for China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2002-12-01

We present three earthquake potential estimates for magnitude 5.4 and larger earthquakes for China. The potential is expressed as the rate density (probability per unit area, magnitude and time). The three methods employ smoothed seismicity-, geologic slip rate-, and geodetic strain rate data. We tested all three estimates, and the published Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) model, against earthquake data. We constructed a special earthquake catalog which combines previous catalogs covering different times. We used the special catalog to construct our smoothed seismicity model and to evaluate all models retrospectively. All our models employ a modified Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution with three parameters: a multiplicative ``a-value," the slope or ``b-value," and a ``corner magnitude" marking a strong decrease of earthquake rate with magnitude. We assumed the b-value to be constant for the whole study area and estimated the other parameters from regional or local geophysical data. The smoothed seismicity method assumes that the rate density is proportional to the magnitude of past earthquakes and approximately as the reciprocal of the epicentral distance out to a few hundred kilometers. We derived the upper magnitude limit from the special catalog and estimated local a-values from smoothed seismicity. Earthquakes since January 1, 2000 are quite compatible with the model. For the geologic forecast we adopted the seismic source zones (based on geological, geodetic and seismicity data) of the GSHAP model. For each zone, we estimated a corner magnitude by applying the Wells and Coppersmith [1994] relationship to the longest fault in the zone, and we determined the a-value from fault slip rates and an assumed locking depth. The geological model fits the earthquake data better than the GSHAP model. We also applied the Wells and Coppersmith relationship to individual faults, but the results conflicted with the earthquake record. For our geodetic

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Spatiotemporal Variations in Slow Earthquakes Along the Mexican Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maury, J.; Ide, S.; Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Kostoglodov, V.

2018-02-01

Slow earthquakes in Mexico have been investigated independently in different areas. Here we review differences in tremor behavior and slow slip events along the entire subduction zone to improve our understanding of its segmentation. Some similarities are observed between the Guerrero and Oaxaca areas. By combining our improved tremor detection capabilities with previous results, we suggest that there is no gap in tremor between Guerrero and Oaxaca. However, some differences between Michoacan and Guerrero are seen (e.g., SSE magnitude, tremor zone width, and tremor rate), suggesting that these two areas behave differently. Tremor initiation shows clear tidal sensitivity along the entire subduction zone. Tremor in Guerrero is sensitive to small tidal normal stress as well as shear stress, suggesting that the subduction plane may include local variations in dip. Estimation of the energy rate shows similar values along the subduction zone interface. The scaled tremor energy estimates are similar to those calculated in Nankai and Cascadia, suggesting a common mechanism. Along-strike differences in slow deformation may be related to variations in the subduction interface that yield different geometrical and temperature profiles.

Surface faulting along the Superstition Hills fault zone and nearby faults associated with the earthquakes of 24 November 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharp, R.V.

1989-01-01

The M6.2 Elmore Desert Ranch earthquake of 24 November 1987 was associated spatially and probably temporally with left-lateral surface rupture on many northeast-trending faults in and near the Superstition Hills in western Imperial Valley. Three curving discontinuous principal zones of rupture among these breaks extended northeastward from near the Superstition Hills fault zone as far as 9km; the maximum observed surface slip, 12.5cm, was on the northern of the three, the Elmore Ranch fault, at a point near the epicenter. Twelve hours after the Elmore Ranch earthquake, the M6.6 Superstition Hills earthquake occurred near the northwest end of the right-lateral Superstition Hills fault zone. We measured displacements over 339 days at as many as 296 sites along the Superstition Hills fault zone, and repeated measurements at 49 sites provided sufficient data to fit with a simple power law. The overall distributions of right-lateral displacement at 1 day and the estimated final slip are nearly symmetrical about the midpoint of the surface rupture. The average estimated final right-lateral slip for the Superstition Hills fault zone is ~54cm. The average left-lateral slip for the conjugate faults trending northeastward is ~23cm. The southernmost ruptured member of the Superstition Hills fault zone, newly named the Wienert fault, extends the known length of the zone by about 4km. -from Authors

Possible seasonality in large deep-focus earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Zhongwen; Shearer, Peter M.

2015-09-01

Large deep-focus earthquakes (magnitude > 7.0, depth > 500 km) have exhibited strong seasonality in their occurrence times since the beginning of global earthquake catalogs. Of 60 such events from 1900 to the present, 42 have occurred in the middle half of each year. The seasonality appears strongest in the northwest Pacific subduction zones and weakest in the Tonga region. Taken at face value, the surplus of northern hemisphere summer events is statistically significant, but due to the ex post facto hypothesis testing, the absence of seasonality in smaller deep earthquakes, and the lack of a known physical triggering mechanism, we cannot rule out that the observed seasonality is just random chance. However, we can make a testable prediction of seasonality in future large deep-focus earthquakes, which, given likely earthquake occurrence rates, should be verified or falsified within a few decades. If confirmed, deep earthquake seasonality would challenge our current understanding of deep earthquakes.

Comparisons of Source Characteristics between Recent Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences inside and outside of Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somei, K.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Miyakoshi, K.

2012-12-01

After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, many M7-class inland earthquakes occurred in Japan. Some of those events (e.g., the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake) occurred in a tectonic zone which is characterized as a high strain rate zone by the GPS observation (Sagiya et al., 2000) or dense distribution of active faults. That belt-like zone along the coast in Japan Sea side of Tohoku and Chubu districts, and north of Kinki district, is called as the Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone (NKTZ, Sagiya et al, 2000). We investigate seismic scaling relationship for recent inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan and compare source characteristics between events occurring inside and outside of NKTZ. We used S-wave coda part for estimating source spectra. Source spectral ratio is obtained by S-wave coda spectral ratio between the records of large and small events occurring close to each other from nation-wide strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and broad-band seismic network (F-net) to remove propagation-path and site effects. We carefully examined the commonality of the decay of coda envelopes between event-pair records and modeled the observed spectral ratio by the source spectral ratio function with assuming omega-square source model for large and small events. We estimated the corner frequencies and seismic moment (ratio) from those modeled spectral ratio function. We determined Brune's stress drops of 356 events (Mw: 3.1-6.9) in ten earthquake sequences occurring in NKTZ and six sequences occurring outside of NKTZ. Most of source spectra obey omega-square source spectra. There is no obvious systematic difference between stress drops of events in NKTZ zone and others. We may conclude that the systematic tendency of seismic source scaling of the events occurred inside and outside of NKTZ does not exist and the average source scaling relationship can be effective for inland crustal earthquakes. Acknowledgements: Waveform data were provided from K-NET, KiK-net and F-net operated by

Microscale cavitation as a mechanism for nucleating earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone.

PubMed

Verberne, Berend A; Chen, Jianye; Niemeijer, André R; de Bresser, Johannes H P; Pennock, Gillian M; Drury, Martyn R; Spiers, Christopher J

2017-11-21

Major earthquakes frequently nucleate near the base of the seismogenic zone, close to the brittle-ductile transition. Fault zone rupture at greater depths is inhibited by ductile flow of rock. However, the microphysical mechanisms responsible for the transition from ductile flow to seismogenic brittle/frictional behaviour at shallower depths remain unclear. Here we show that the flow-to-friction transition in experimentally simulated calcite faults is characterized by a transition from dislocation and diffusion creep to dilatant deformation, involving incompletely accommodated grain boundary sliding. With increasing shear rate or decreasing temperature, dislocation and diffusion creep become too slow to accommodate the imposed shear strain rate, leading to intergranular cavitation, weakening, strain localization, and a switch from stable flow to runaway fault rupture. The observed shear instability, triggered by the onset of microscale cavitation, provides a key mechanism for bringing about the brittle-ductile transition and for nucleating earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone.

Repeating Deep Very Low Frequency Earthquakes: An Evidence of Transition Zone between Brittle and Ductile Zone along Plate Boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishihara, Y.; Yamamoto, Y.; Arai, R.

2017-12-01

Recently slow or low frequency seismic and geodetic events are focused under recognition of important role in tectonic process. The most western region of Ryukyu trench, Yaeyama Islands, is very active area of these type events. It has semiannual-like slow slip (Heki et.al., 2008; Nishimura et.al.,2014) and very frequent shallow very low frequency earthquakes near trench zone (Ando et.al.,2012; Nakamura et.al.,2014). Arai et.al.(2016) identified clear reverse phase discontinuity along plate boundary by air-gun survey, suggesting existence of low velocity layer including fluid. The subducting fluid layer is considered to control slip characteristics. On the other hand, deep low frequency earthquake and tremor observed at south-western Honshu and Shikoku of Japan are not identified well due to lack of high-quality seismic network. A broadband seismic station(ISG/PS) of Pacific21 network is operating in last 20 years that locates on occurrence potential area of low frequency earthquake. We tried to review continuous broadband record, searching low frequency earthquakes. In pilot survey, we found three very low frequency seismic events which are dominant in less than 0.1Hz component and are not listed in earthquake catalogue. Source locates about 50km depth and at transition area between slow slip event and active area of general earthquake along plate boundary. To detect small and/or hidden very low frequency earthquake, we applied matched filter analysis to continuous three components waveform data using pre-reviewed seismogram as template signal. 12 events with high correlation are picked up in last 10 years. Most events have very similar waveform, which means characteristics of repeating deep very low frequency earthquake. The event history of very low frequency earthquake is not related with one of slow slip event in this region. In Yaeyama region, low frequency earthquake, general earthquake and slow slip event occur dividing in space and have apparent

Improving automatic earthquake locations in subduction zones: a case study for GEOFON catalog of Tonga-Fiji region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nooshiri, Nima; Heimann, Sebastian; Saul, Joachim; Tilmann, Frederik; Dahm, Torsten

2015-04-01

Automatic earthquake locations are sometimes associated with very large residuals up to 10 s even for clear arrivals, especially for regional stations in subduction zones because of their strongly heterogeneous velocity structure associated. Although these residuals are most likely not related to measurement errors but unmodelled velocity heterogeneity, these stations are usually removed from or down-weighted in the location procedure. While this is possible for large events, it may not be useful if the earthquake is weak. In this case, implementation of travel-time station corrections may significantly improve the automatic locations. Here, the shrinking box source-specific station term method (SSST) [Lin and Shearer, 2005] has been applied to improve relative location accuracy of 1678 events that occurred in the Tonga subduction zone between 2010 and mid-2014. Picks were obtained from the GEOFON earthquake bulletin for all available station networks. We calculated a set of timing corrections for each station which vary as a function of source position. A separate time correction was computed for each source-receiver path at the given station by smoothing the residual field over nearby events. We begin with a very large smoothing radius essentially encompassing the whole event set and iterate by progressively shrinking the smoothing radius. In this way, we attempted to correct for the systematic errors, that are introduced into the locations by the inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure, without solving for a new velocity model itself. One of the advantages of the SSST technique is that the event location part of the calculation is separate from the station term calculation and can be performed using any single event location method. In this study, we applied a non-linear, probabilistic, global-search earthquake location method using the software package NonLinLoc [Lomax et al., 2000]. The non-linear location algorithm implemented in NonLinLoc is less

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone and the great Lisbon earthquake of 1755

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutscher, M.-A.; Malod, J. A.; Rehault, J.-P.; Thiebot, E.; Contrucci, I.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.

2003-04-01

New geophysical data provide compelling evidence for an active east dipping subduction zone beneath the Gibraltar Arc. SISMAR marine seismic data in the Gulf of Cadiz image an actively deforming accretionary wedge, with east dipping thrust faults disrupting the seafloor and soleing out to an east dipping decollement. Tomographic cross-sections as well as hypocenter distribution support a continuous east dipping slab of oceanic lithosphere from the Atlantic domain to beneath the Western Alboran Sea. The great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 (felt as far away as Hamburg, the Azores and Cape Verde Islands) has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5 - 9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5 - 15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g. - Gorringe Bank, Marques de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment and the tsunami amplitude and travel-time observations. We propose the Gibraltar arc seismogenic zone to be the source of the 1755 earthquake. This hypothesis may be tested in several ways. We perform tsunami wave form modeling for a shallow east dipping fault plane with dimensions of 180 km (N-S) x 210 km (E-W) and a co-seismic slip of 20 m. For convergence rates of 1 - 2 cm/yr an event of this magnitude could recur every 1000 - 2000 years. Furthermore, the DELILA geophysical cruise is proposed for 2004 to conduct a bathymetric and seismic survey of the accretionary wedge and to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains which record the history of great earthquakes.

Development of a global slope dataset for estimation of landslide occurrence resulting from earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Kristine L.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Funk, Christopher C.; Pedreros, Diego; Worstell, Bruce; Verdin, James

2007-01-01

Landslides resulting from earthquakes can cause widespread loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed an alarm system, PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), that aims to provide timely information to emergency relief organizations on the impact of earthquakes. Landslides are responsible for many of the damaging effects following large earthquakes in mountainous regions, and thus data defining the topographic relief and slope are critical to the PAGER system. A new global topographic dataset was developed to aid in rapidly estimating landslide potential following large earthquakes. We used the remotely-sensed elevation data collected as part of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to generate a slope dataset with nearly global coverage. Slopes from the SRTM data, computed at 3-arc-second resolution, were summarized at 30-arc-second resolution, along with statistics developed to describe the distribution of slope within each 30-arc-second pixel. Because there are many small areas lacking SRTM data and the northern limit of the SRTM mission was lat 60?N., statistical methods referencing other elevation data were used to fill the voids within the dataset and to extrapolate the data north of 60?. The dataset will be used in the PAGER system to rapidly assess the susceptibility of areas to landsliding following large earthquakes.

Global teaching of global seismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S.; Wysession, M.

2005-12-01

Our recent textbook, Introduction to Seismology, Earthquakes, & Earth Structure (Blackwell, 2003) is used in many countries. Part of the reason for this may be our deliberate attempt to write the book for an international audience. This effort appears in several ways. We stress seismology's long tradition of global data interchange. Our brief discussions of the science's history illustrate the contributions of scientists around the world. Perhaps most importantly, our discussions of earthquakes, tectonics, and seismic hazards take a global view. Many examples are from North America, whereas others are from other areas. Our view is that non-North American students should be exposed to North American examples that are type examples, and that North American students should be similarly exposed to examples elsewhere. For example, we illustrate how the Euler vector geometry changes a plate boundary from spreading, to strike-slip, to convergence using both the Pacific-North America boundary from the Gulf of California to Alaska and the Eurasia-Africa boundary from the Azores to the Mediterranean. We illustrate diffuse plate boundary zones using western North America, the Andes, the Himalayas, the Mediterranean, and the East Africa Rift. The subduction zone discussions examine Japan, Tonga, and Chile. We discuss significant earthquakes both in the U.S. and elsewhere, and explore hazard mitigation issues in different contexts. Both comments from foreign colleagues and our experience lecturing overseas indicate that this approach works well. Beyond the specifics of our text, we believe that such a global approach is facilitated by the international traditions of the earth sciences and the world youth culture that gives students worldwide common culture. For example, a video of the scene in New Madrid, Missouri that arose from a nonsensical earthquake prediction in 1990 elicits similar responses from American and European students.

Mechanical and Statistical Evidence of Human-Caused Earthquakes - A Global Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2012-12-01

The causality of large-scale geoengineering activities and the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes of up to M=8 is discussed and mechanical and statistical evidence is provided. The earthquakes were caused by artificial water reservoir impoundments, underground and open-pit mining, coastal management, hydrocarbon production and fluid injections/extractions. The presented global earthquake catalog has been recently published in the Journal of Seismology and is available for the public at www.cdklose.com. The data show evidence that geomechanical relationships exist with statistical significance between a) seismic moment magnitudes of observed earthquakes, b) anthropogenic mass shifts on the Earth's crust, and c) lateral distances of the earthquake hypocenters to the locations of the mass shifts. Research findings depend on uncertainties, in particular, of source parameter estimations of seismic events before instrumental recoding. First analyses, however, indicate that that small- to medium size earthquakes (M6) tend to be triggered. The rupture propagation of triggered events might be dominated by pre-existing tectonic stress conditions. Besides event specific evidence, large earthquakes such as China's 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake fall into a global pattern and can not be considered as outliers or simply seen as an act of god. Observations also indicate that every second seismic event tends to occur after a decade, while pore pressure diffusion seems to only play a role when injecting fluids deep underground. The chance of an earthquake to nucleate after two or 20 years near an area with a significant mass shift is 25% or 75% respectively. Moreover, causative effects of seismic activities highly depend on the tectonic stress regime in the Earth's crust in which geoengineering takes place.

Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy

2009-01-01

Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marano, K.D.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.

2010-01-01

This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER's overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Intelligent earthquake data processing for global adjoint tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Hill, J.; Li, T.; Lei, W.; Ruan, Y.; Lefebvre, M. P.; Tromp, J.

2016-12-01

Due to the increased computational capability afforded by modern and future computing architectures, the seismology community is demanding a more comprehensive understanding of the full waveform information from the recorded earthquake seismograms. Global waveform tomography is a complex workflow that matches observed seismic data with synthesized seismograms by iteratively updating the earth model parameters based on the adjoint state method. This methodology allows us to compute a very accurate model of the earth's interior. The synthetic data is simulated by solving the wave equation in the entire globe using a spectral-element method. In order to ensure the inversion accuracy and stability, both the synthesized and observed seismograms must be carefully pre-processed. Because the scale of the inversion problem is extremely large and there is a very large volume of data to both be read and written, an efficient and reliable pre-processing workflow must be developed. We are investigating intelligent algorithms based on a machine-learning (ML) framework that will automatically tune parameters for the data processing chain. One straightforward application of ML in data processing is to classify all possible misfit calculation windows into usable and unusable ones, based on some intelligent ML models such as neural network, support vector machine or principle component analysis. The intelligent earthquake data processing framework will enable the seismology community to compute the global waveform tomography using seismic data from an arbitrarily large number of earthquake events in the fastest, most efficient way.

Precise Relative Earthquake Magnitudes from Cross Correlation

DOE PAGES

Cleveland, K. Michael; Ammon, Charles J.

2015-04-21

We present a method to estimate precise relative magnitudes using cross correlation of seismic waveforms. Our method incorporates the intercorrelation of all events in a group of earthquakes, as opposed to individual event pairings relative to a reference event. This method works well when a reliable reference event does not exist. We illustrate the method using vertical strike-slip earthquakes located in the northeast Pacific and Panama fracture zone regions. Our results are generally consistent with the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog, which we use to establish a baseline for the relative event sizes.

Kinematics of the 2015 San Ramon, California earthquake swarm: Implications for fault zone structure and driving mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Lian; Bürgmann, Roland; Shelly, David R.; Johnson, Christopher W.; Taira, Taka'aki

2018-05-01

Earthquake swarms represent a sudden increase in seismicity that may indicate a heterogeneous fault-zone, the involvement of crustal fluids and/or slow fault slip. Swarms sometimes precede major earthquake ruptures. An earthquake swarm occurred in October 2015 near San Ramon, California in an extensional right step-over region between the northern Calaveras Fault and the Concord-Mt. Diablo fault zone, which has hosted ten major swarms since 1970. The 2015 San Ramon swarm is examined here from 11 October through 18 November using template matching analysis. The relocated seismicity catalog contains ∼4000 events with magnitudes between - 0.2 zone structure with several sets of en échelon fault orientations. The migration of events along the three planar structures indicates a complex fluid and faulting interaction processes. We searched for correlations between seismic activity and tidal stresses and found some suggestive features, but nothing that we can be confident is statistically significant.

Geodetic slip rate for the eastern California shear zone and the recurrence time of Mojave desert earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauber, J.; Thatcher, W.; Solomon, S.C.; Lisowski, M.

1994-01-01

Where the San Andreas fault passes along the southwestern margin of the Mojave desert, it exhibits a large change in trend, and the deformation associated with the Pacific/North American plate boundary is distributed broadly over a complex shear zone. The importance of understanding the partitioning of strain across this region, especially to the east of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas in a region known as the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ), was highlighted by the occurrence (on 28 June 1992) of the magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake in this zone. Here we use geodetic observations in the central Mojave desert to obtain new estimates for the rate and distribution of strain across a segment of the ECSZ, and to determine a coseismic strain drop of ~770 ??rad for the Landers earthquake. From these results we infer a strain energy recharge time of 3,500-5,000 yr for a Landers-type earthquake and a slip rate of ~12 mm yr-1 across the faults of the central Mojave. The latter estimate implies that a greater fraction of plate motion than heretofore inferred from geodetic data is accommodated across the ECSZ.

Toward Broadband Source Modeling for the Himalayan Collision Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.; Koketsu, K.; Kobayashi, H.; Sharma, B.; Mishra, O. P.; Yokoi, T.; Hayashida, T.; Bhattarai, M.; Sapkota, S. N.

2017-12-01

The Himalayan collision zone is characterized by the significant tectonic setting. There are earthquakes with low-angle thrust faulting as well as continental outerrise earthquakes. Recently several historical earthquakes have been identified by active fault surveys [e.g., Sapkota et al., 2013]. We here investigate source scaling for the Himalayan collision zone as a fundamental factor to construct source models toward seismic hazard assessment. As for the source scaling for collision zones, Yen and Ma [2011] reported the subduction-zone source scaling in Taiwan, and pointed out the non-self-similar scaling due to the finite crustal thickness. On the other hand, current global analyses of stress drop do not show abnormal values for the continental collision zones [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2009]. Based on the compile profiling of finite thickness of the curst and dip angle variations, we discuss whether the bending exists for the Himalayan source scaling and implications on stress drop that will control strong ground motions. Due to quite low-angle dip faulting, recent earthquakes in the Himalayan collision zone showed the upper bound of the current source scaling of rupture area vs. seismic moment (< Mw 8.0), and does not show significant bending of the source scaling. Toward broadband source modeling for ground motion prediction, we perform empirical Green's function simulations for the 2009 Butan and 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence to quantify both long- and short-period source spectral levels.

The effect of compliant prisms on subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotto, Gabriel C.; Dunham, Eric M.; Jeppson, Tamara N.; Tobin, Harold J.

2017-01-01

Earthquakes generate tsunamis by coseismically deforming the seafloor, and that deformation is largely controlled by the shallow rupture process. Therefore, in order to better understand how earthquakes generate tsunamis, one must consider the material structure and frictional properties of the shallowest part of the subduction zone, where ruptures often encounter compliant sedimentary prisms. Compliant prisms have been associated with enhanced shallow slip, seafloor deformation, and tsunami heights, particularly in the context of tsunami earthquakes. To rigorously quantify the role compliant prisms play in generating tsunamis, we perform a series of numerical simulations that directly couple dynamic rupture on a dipping thrust fault to the elastodynamic response of the Earth and the acoustic response of the ocean. Gravity is included in our simulations in the context of a linearized Eulerian description of the ocean, which allows us to model tsunami generation and propagation, including dispersion and related nonhydrostatic effects. Our simulations span a three-dimensional parameter space of prism size, prism compliance, and sub-prism friction - specifically, the rate-and-state parameter b - a that determines velocity-weakening or velocity-strengthening behavior. We find that compliant prisms generally slow rupture velocity and, for larger prisms, generate tsunamis more efficiently than subduction zones without prisms. In most but not all cases, larger, more compliant prisms cause greater amounts of shallow slip and larger tsunamis. Furthermore, shallow friction is also quite important in determining overall slip; increasing sub-prism b - a enhances slip everywhere along the fault. Counterintuitively, we find that in simulations with large prisms and velocity-strengthening friction at the base of the prism, increasing prism compliance reduces rather than enhances shallow slip and tsunami wave height.

Slab temperature controls on the Tonga double seismic zone and slab mantle dehydration

PubMed Central

Wei, S. Shawn; Wiens, Douglas A.; van Keken, Peter E.; Cai, Chen

2017-01-01

Double seismic zones are two-layered distributions of intermediate-depth earthquakes that provide insight into the thermomechanical state of subducting slabs. We present new precise hypocenters of intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Tonga subduction zone obtained using data from local island–based, ocean-bottom, and global seismographs. The results show a downdip compressional upper plane and a downdip tensional lower plane with a separation of about 30 km. The double seismic zone in Tonga extends to a depth of about 300 km, deeper than in any other subduction system. This is due to the lower slab temperatures resulting from faster subduction, as indicated by a global trend toward deeper double seismic zones in colder slabs. In addition, a line of high seismicity in the upper plane is observed at a depth of 160 to 280 km, which shallows southward as the convergence rate decreases. Thermal modeling shows that the earthquakes in this “seismic belt” occur at various pressures but at a nearly constant temperature, highlighting the important role of temperature in triggering intermediate-depth earthquakes. This seismic belt may correspond to regions where the subducting mantle first reaches a temperature of ~500°C, implying that metamorphic dehydration of mantle minerals in the slab provides water to enhance faulting. PMID:28097220

Evaluation of the statistical evidence for Characteristic Earthquakes in the frequency-magnitude distributions of Sumatra and other subduction zone regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naylor, M.; Main, I. G.; Greenhough, J.; Bell, A. F.; McCloskey, J.

2009-04-01

The Sumatran Boxing Day earthquake and subsequent large events provide an opportunity to re-evaluate the statistical evidence for characteristic earthquake events in frequency-magnitude distributions. Our aims are to (i) improve intuition regarding the properties of samples drawn from power laws, (ii) illustrate using random samples how appropriate Poisson confidence intervals can both aid the eye and provide an appropriate statistical evaluation of data drawn from power-law distributions, and (iii) apply these confidence intervals to test for evidence of characteristic earthquakes in subduction-zone frequency-magnitude distributions. We find no need for a characteristic model to describe frequency magnitude distributions in any of the investigated subduction zones, including Sumatra, due to an emergent skew in residuals of power law count data at high magnitudes combined with a sample bias for examining large earthquakes as candidate characteristic events.

Subsurface fault damage zone of the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake viewed from fault‐zone trapped waves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Yong-Gang; Catchings, Rufus D.; Goldman, Mark R.

2016-01-01

The aftershocks of the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake generated prominent fault‐zone trapped waves (FZTWs) that were recorded on two 1.9‐km‐long seismic arrays deployed across the northern projection (array 1, A1) and the southern part (A2) of the surface rupture of the West Napa fault zone (WNFZ). We also observed FZTWs on an array (A3) deployed across the intersection of the Franklin and Southampton faults, which appear to be the southward continuations of the WNFZ. A1, A2, and A3 consisted of 20, 20, and 10 L28 (4.5 Hz) three‐component seismographs. We analyzed waveforms of FZTWs from 55 aftershocks in both time and frequency to characterize the fault damage zone associated with this Mw 6.0 earthquake. Post‐S coda durations of FZTWs increase with epicentral distances and focal depths from the recording arrays, suggesting a low‐velocity waveguide along the WNFZ to depths in excess of 5–7 km. Locations of the aftershocks showing FZTWs, combined with 3D finite‐difference simulations, suggest the subsurface rupture zone having an S‐wave speed reduction of ∼40%–50% between A1 and A2, coincident with the ∼14‐km‐long mapped surface rupture zone and at least an ∼500‐m‐wide deformation zone. The low‐velocity waveguide along the WNFZ extends further southward to at least A3, but with a more moderate‐velocity reduction of 30%–35% at ray depth. This last FZTW observation suggests continuity between the WNFZ and Franklin fault. The waveguide effect may have localized and amplified ground shaking along the WNFZ and the faults farther to the south (see a companion paper by Catchings et al., 2016).

Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2002-01-01

In contrast to far-field tsunami amplitudes that are fairly well predicted by the seismic moment of subduction zone earthquakes, there exists significant variation in the scaling of local tsunami amplitude with respect to seismic moment. From a global catalog of tsunami runup observations this variability is greatest for the most frequently occuring tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes in the magnitude range of 7 < Mw < 8.5. Variability in local tsunami runup scaling can be ascribed to tsunami source parameters that are independent of seismic moment: variations in the water depth in the source region, the combination of higher slip and lower shear modulus at shallow depth, and rupture complexity in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution patterns. The focus of this study is on the effect that rupture complexity has on the local tsunami wave field. A wide range of slip distribution patterns are generated using a stochastic, self-affine source model that is consistent with the falloff of far-field seismic displacement spectra at high frequencies. The synthetic slip distributions generated by the stochastic source model are discretized and the vertical displacement fields from point source elastic dislocation expressions are superimposed to compute the coseismic vertical displacement field. For shallow subduction zone earthquakes it is demonstrated that self-affine irregularities of the slip distribution result in significant variations in local tsunami amplitude. The effects of rupture complexity are less pronounced for earthquakes at greater depth or along faults with steep dip angles. For a test region along the Pacific coast of central Mexico, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude is calculated for a large number (N = 100) of synthetic slip distribution patterns, all with identical seismic moment (Mw = 8.1). Analysis of the results indicates that for earthquakes of a fixed location, geometry, and seismic moment, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude can vary by a

Investigation of Ionospheric Anomalies related to moderate Romanian earthquakes occurred during last decade using VLF/LF INFREP and GNSS Global Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Oikonomou, Christina; Haralambous, Haris; Nastase, Eduard; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Colella, Roberto; Toma-Danila, Dragos

2017-04-01

Ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) variations and Low Frequency (LF) signal amplitude data prior to five moderate earthquakes (Mw≥5) occurred in Romania, in Vrancea crustal and subcrustal seismic zones, during the last decade were analyzed using observations from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and the European INFREP (International Network for Frontier Research on Earthquake Precursors) networks respectively, aiming to detect potential ionospheric anomalies related to these events and describe their characteristics. For this, spectral analysis on TEC data and terminator time method on VLF/LF data were applied. It was found that TEC perturbations appeared few days (1-7) up to few hours before the events lasting around 2-3 hours, with periods 20 and 3-5 minutes which could be associated with the impending earthquakes. In addition, in all three events the sunrise terminator times were delayed approximately 20-40 min few days prior and during the earthquake day. Acknowledgments This work was partially supported by the Partnership in Priority Areas Program - PNII, under MEN-UEFISCDI, DARING Project no. 69/2014 and the Nucleu Program - PN 16-35, Project no. 03 01

Slab Geometry and Deformation in the Northern Nazca Subduction Zone Inferred From The Relocation and Focal mechanisms of Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Y.; Warren, L. M.; Prieto, G. A.

2015-12-01

In the northern Nazca subduction zone, the Nazca plate is subducting to the east beneath the South American Plate. At ~5.6ºN, the subducting plate has a 240-km east-west offset associated with a slab tear, called the Caldas tear, that separates the northern and southern segments. Our study seeks to better define the slab geometry and deformation in the southern segment, which has a high rate of intermediate-depth earthquakes (50-300 km) between 3.6ºN and 5.2ºN in the Cauca cluster. From Jan 2010 to Mar 2014, 228 intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Cauca cluster with local magnitude Ml 2.5-4.7 were recorded by 65 seismic stations of the Colombian National Seismic Network. We review and, if necessary, adjust the catalog P and S wave arrival picks. We use the travel times to relocate the earthquakes using a double difference relocation method. For earthquakes with Ml ≥3.8, we also use waveform modeling to compute moment tensors . The distribution of earthquake relocations shows an ~15-km-thick slab dipping to the SE. The dip angle increases from 20º at the northern edge of the cluster to 38º at the southern edge. Two concentrated groups of earthquakes extend ~40 km vertically above the general downdip trend, with a 20 km quiet gap between them at ~100 km depth. The earthquakes in the general downdip seismic zone have downdip compressional axes, while earthquakes close to the quiet gap and in the concentrated groups have an oblique component. The general decrease in slab dip angle to the north may be caused by mantle flow through the Caldas tear. The seismicity gap in the slab may be associated with an active deformation zone and the concentrated groups of earthquakes with oblique focal mechanisms could be due to a slab fold.

Spatio-temporal Variations in Slow Earthquakes along the Mexican Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ide, S.; Maury, J.; Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Kostoglodov, V.

2017-12-01

Slow earthquakes in Mexico have been investigated independently in different areas. Here, we review differences in tremor behavior and slow slip events along the entire subduction zone to improve our understanding of its segmentation. Some similarities are observed between the Guerrero and Oaxaca areas. By combining our improved tremor detection capabilities with previous results, we suggest that there is no gap in tremor between Guerrero and Oaxaca. However some differences between Michoacan and Guerrero are seen (e.g., SSE magnitude, tremor zone width, tremor rate), suggesting that these two areas behave differently. Tremor initiation shows clear tidal sensitivity along the entire subduction zone. Tremor in Guerrero is sensitive to small tidal normal stress as well as shear stress suggesting the subduction plane may include local variations in dip. Estimation of the energy rate shows similar values along the subduction zone interface. The scaled tremor energy estimates are similar to those calculated in Nankai and Cascadia, suggesting a common mechanism. Along-strike differences in slow deformation may be related to variations in the subduction interface that yield different geometrical and temperature profiles.

Imaging the 2017 MW 8.2 Tehuantepec intermediate-depth earthquake using Teleseismic P Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brudzinski, M.; Zhang, H.; Koper, K. D.; Pankow, K. L.

2017-12-01

The September 8, 2017 MW 8.1 Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquakes in the middle American subduction zone is one of the largest intermediate-depth earthquake ever recorded and could provide an unprecedented opportunity for understanding the mechanism of intermediate-depth earthquakes. While the hypocenter and centroid depths for this earthquake are shallower than typically considered for intermediate depth earthquakes, the normal faulting mechanism consistent with down-dip extension and location within the subducting plate align with properties of intermediate depth earthquakes. Back-projection of high-frequency teleseismic P-waves from two regional arrays for this earthquake shows unilateral rupture on a southeast-northwest striking fault that extends north of the Tehuantepec fracture zone (TFZ), with an average horizontal rupture speed of 3.0 km/s and total duration of 60 s. Guided by these back-projection results, 47 globally distributed low-frequency P-waves were inverted for a finite-fault model (FFM) of slip for both nodal planes. The FFM shows a slip deficit in proximity to the extension of the TFZ, as well as the minor rupture beyond the TFZ (confirmed by the synthetic tests), which indicates that the TFZ acted as a barrier for this earthquake. Analysis of waveform misfit leads to the preference of a subvertical plane as the causative fault. The FFM shows that the majority of the rupture is above the focal depth and consists of two large slip patches: the first one is near the hypocenter ( 55 km depth) and the second larger one near 30 km depth. The distribution of the two patches spatially agrees with seismicity that defines the upper and lower zones of a double Benioff zone (DBZ). It appears there was single fault rupture across the two depth zones of the DBZ. This is uncommon because a stark aseismic zone is typically observed between the upper and lower zones of the DBZ. This finding indicates that the mechanism for intraslab earthquakes must allow for

Assessing Urban Streets Network Vulnerability against Earthquake Using GIS - Case Study: 6TH Zone of Tehran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastegar, A.

2017-09-01

Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population (3.6% of city population) and 20 km2 area (3.2% of city area), is one of the main municipal zones of Tehran (Iran center of statistics, 2006). Major land-uses, like ministries, embassies, universities, general hospitals and medical centers, big financial firms and so on, manifest the high importance of this region on local and national scale. In this paper, by employing indexes such as access to medical centers, street inclusion, building and population density, land-use, PGA and building quality, vulnerability degree of street networks in zone #6 against the earthquake is calculated through overlaying maps and data in combination with IHWP method and GIS. This article concludes that buildings alongside the streets with high population and building density, low building quality, far to rescue centers and high level of inclusion represent high rate of vulnerability, compared with other buildings. Also, by moving on from north to south of the zone, the vulnerability increases. Likewise, highways and streets with substantial width and low building and population density hold little values of vulnerability.

Earthquake behavior of the Enriquillo fault zone, Haiti revealed by interactive terrain visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowgill, E.; Bernardin, T. S.; Oskin, M. E.; Bowles, C. J.; Yikilmaz, M. B.; Kreylos, O.; Elliott, A. J.; Bishop, M. S.; Gold, R. D.; Morelan, A.; Bawden, G. W.; Hamann, B.; Kellogg, L. H.

2010-12-01

The Mw 7.0 January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake ended 240 years of relative quiescence following earthquakes that destroyed Port-au-Prince in 1751 and 1770. We place the 2010 rupture in the context of past earthquakes and future hazards by using remote analysis of airborne LiDAR to observe the topographic expression of active faulting and develop a new conceptual model for the earthquake behavior of the eastern Enriquillo fault zone (EFZ). In this model, the 2010 event occupies a long-lived segment boundary at a stepover within the EFZ separating fault segments that likely ruptured in 1751 and 1770, explaining both past clustering and the lack of 2010 surface rupture. Immediately following the 2010 earthquake, an airborne LiDAR point cloud containing over 2.7 billion point measurements of surface features was collected by the Rochester Inst. of Technology. To analyze these data, we capitalize on the human capacity to visually identify meaningful patterns embedded in noisy data by conducting interactive visual analysis of the entire 66.8 GB Haiti terrain data in a 4-sided, 800 ft3 immersive virtual-reality environment at the UC Davis KeckCAVES using the software tools LiDAR Viewer (to analyze point cloud data) and Crusta (for 3D surficial geologic mapping on DEM data). We discovered and measured landforms displaced by past surface-rupturing earthquakes and remotely characterized the regional fault geometry. Our analysis of the ~50 km long reach of EFZ spanning the 2010 epicenter indicates that geomorphic evidence of active faulting is clearer east of the epicenter than to the west. West of the epicenter, and in the region of the 2010 rupture, the fault is poorly defined along an embayed, low-relief range front, with little evidence of recent surface rupture. In contrast, landform offsets of 6 to 50 m along the reach of the EFZ east of the epicenter and closest to Port-au-Prince attest to repeated recent surface-rupturing earthquakes here. Specifically, we found and

Fault zone reverberations from cross-correlations of earthquake waveforms and seismic noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillers, Gregor; Campillo, Michel

2016-03-01

Seismic wavefields interact with low-velocity fault damage zones. Waveforms of ballistic fault zone head waves, trapped waves, reflected waves and signatures of trapped noise can provide important information on structural and mechanical fault zone properties. Here we extend the class of observable fault zone waves and reconstruct in-fault reverberations or multiples in a strike-slip faulting environment. Manifestations of the reverberations are significant, consistent wave fronts in the coda of cross-correlation functions that are obtained from scattered earthquake waveforms and seismic noise recorded by a linear fault zone array. The physical reconstruction of Green's functions is evident from the high similarity between the signals obtained from the two different scattered wavefields. Modal partitioning of the reverberation wavefield can be tuned using different data normalization techniques. The results imply that fault zones create their own ambiance, and that the here reconstructed reverberations are a key seismic signature of wear zones. Using synthetic waveform modelling we show that reverberations can be used for the imaging of structural units by estimating the location, extend and magnitude of lateral velocity contrasts. The robust reconstruction of the reverberations from noise records suggests the possibility to resolve the response of the damage zone material to various external and internal loading mechanisms.

Large mid-Holocene and late Pleistocene earthquakes on the Oquirrh fault zone, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olig, S.S.; Lund, W.R.; Black, B.D.

1994-01-01

The Oquirrh fault zone is a range-front normal fault that bounds the east side of Tooele Valley and it has long been recognized as a potential source for large earthquakes that pose a significant hazard to population centers along the Wasatch Front in central Utah. Scarps of the Oquirrh fault zone offset the Provo shoreline of Lake Bonneville and previous studies of scarp morphology suggested that the most recent surface-faulting earthquake occurred between 9000 and 13,500 years ago. Based on a potential rupture length of 12 to 21 km from previous mapping, moment magnitude (Mw) estimates for this event range from 6.3 to 6.6 In contrast, our results from detailed mapping and trench excavations at two sites indicate that the most-recent event actually occurred between 4300 and 6900 yr B.P. (4800 and 7900 cal B.P.) and net vertical displacements were 2.2 to 2.7 m, much larger than expected considering estimated rupture lengths for this event. Empirical relations between magnitude and displacement yield Mw 7.0 to 7.2. A few, short discontinuous fault scarps as far south as Stockton, Utah have been identified in a recent mapping investigation and our results suggest that they may be part of the Oquirrh fault zone, increasing the total fault length to 32 km. These results emphasize the importance of integrating stratigraphic and geomorphic information in fault investigations for earthquake hazard evaluations. At both the Big Canyon and Pole Canyon sites, trenches exposed faulted Lake Bonneville sediments and thick wedges of fault-scarp derived colluvium associated with the most-recent event. Bulk sediment samples from a faulted debris-flow deposit at the Big Canyon site yield radiocarbon ages of 7650 ?? 90 yr B.P. and 6840 ?? 100 yr B.P. (all lab errors are ??1??). A bulk sediment sample from unfaulted fluvial deposits that bury the fault scarp yield a radiocarbon age estimate of 4340 ?? 60 yr B.P. Stratigraphic evidence for a pre-Bonneville lake cycle penultimate

Blueschist- and Eclogite facies Pseudotachylytes: Products of Earthquakes in Collision- and Subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, T. B.; Austrheim, H.; John, T.; Medvedev, S.; Mair, K.

2009-04-01

Pseudotachylytes are the products of violent geological processes such as metorite impacts and seismic faulting. The fault-rock weakening processes leading to release of earthquakes are commonly related to phenomena such as grain size reduction and gouge formation, pressurization of pore-fluids and in some cases to melting by frictional heating. Explaining the frequently observed intermediate and deep earthquakes by brittle failure is, however, inherently difficult to reconcile because of extremely high normal stresses occuring at depth. In recent years several mechanisms for seismic events on deep faults have been suggested. These include: a) The most commonly accepted mechanism, dehydration embrittlement coupled to prograde metamorphic dehydration of wet rocks, such as serpentinites, at depth. b) Grain-size dependent flow-laws coupled with shear heating instability has been suggested as an alternative to explain repeated seismic faulting in Wadati-Benioff zones. c) Self-localized-thermal-runaway (SLTR) has been forwarded as a mechanism for ultimate failure of visco-elastic materials and as mechanism to explain the co-existence of shear zones and pseudotachylyte fault veins formed at eclogite facies conditions. All these mechanism point to the importance of metamorphism and/or metasomatism in understanding the mechanism(s) of intermediate- and deep earthquakes. Exhumed high to ultra-high pressure [(U)HP] metamorphic rocks are recognized in many orogenic belts. These complexes provide avenues to study a number of important products of geological processes including earthquakes with hypocentres at great depths. (U)HP co-seismic fault rocks are difficult to find in the field; nevertheless, a number of occurrences of co-seismic fault rocks from such complexes have been described after the initial discovery of such rocks in Norway (see: Austrheim and Boundy, Science 1994). In this talk we review some observations and interpretations based on these hitherto rarely

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.; Porter, K.; Hearne, M.

2008-01-01

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing

Earthquake geology along the North Anatoli Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McHugh, C. M.; Cormier, M.-H.; Seeber, L.; Cagatay, M. N.; Capotondi, L.; Polonia, A.; Lozefski, G.

2003-04-01

The feasibility of conducting submarine earthquake geology along the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) was evaluated from sediment cores and geophysical data (multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution CHIRP) recently collected from the Marmara Sea. We have successfully begun to characterize the Holocene earthquake record of the NAFZ in a small basin along the Ganos fault east of the Gelibolu peninsula, and in Izmit Gulf (west of the Hersek promontory and in the Karamürsel basin). Evidence for seismic activity was derived from mass-wasting and gravity flow deposits including homogenites (deposits >10cm thick containing turbidites with resuspended sediment above) identified from core x-rays, grain size, organic carbon, and mineralogical analyses. Deposits were correlated to the historical earthquake record of the Marmara Sea region by chronology derived from 14C, 210Pb and 137Cs. The basin near Ganos is ideal for the study of earthquake-related activity. It is deep (>50m), bisected by the fault, and isolated from other basins and distal from fluvial and alluvial fan input that may include weather-related events. Yet, its sedimentation rates are very high (>2m/1000 years). Homogenites, have been tentatively correlated to the 1912 Ganos earthquake and to the mid-1960's and mid-1800's Saros Gulf earthquakes. The Ganos earthquake ruptured the entire 50km long segment across the Gelibolu peninsula plus submarine portions on either side. If the timing of these events is correct, it suggests frequent seismic activity for this region. On the Gulf of Izmit, west of Hersek, sandy-mass flows containing soft sediment deformation such as recumbent folds and sand injections have been linked to the 1509 earthquake. Historical records indicate that the segment of the NAFZ in the Hersek Peninsula ruptured during this earthquake and our findings suggest that the rupture may have continued beneath the Izmit Gulf. In the eastern portion of the Karamürsel basin, sandy turbidites have

Detection of change points in underlying earthquake rates, with application to global mega-earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touati, Sarah; Naylor, Mark; Main, Ian

2016-02-01

The recent spate of mega-earthquakes since 2004 has led to speculation of an underlying change in the global `background' rate of large events. At a regional scale, detecting changes in background rate is also an important practical problem for operational forecasting and risk calculation, for example due to volcanic processes, seismicity induced by fluid injection or withdrawal, or due to redistribution of Coulomb stress after natural large events. Here we examine the general problem of detecting changes in background rate in earthquake catalogues with and without correlated events, for the first time using the Bayes factor as a discriminant for models of varying complexity. First we use synthetic Poisson (purely random) and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models (which also allow for earthquake triggering) to test the effectiveness of many standard methods of addressing this question. These fall into two classes: those that evaluate the relative likelihood of different models, for example using Information Criteria or the Bayes Factor; and those that evaluate the probability of the observations (including extreme events or clusters of events) under a single null hypothesis, for example by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and `runs' tests, and a variety of Z-score tests. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness among these tests varies widely. Information Criteria worked at least as well as the more computationally expensive Bayes factor method, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and runs tests proved to be the relatively ineffective in reliably detecting a change point. We then apply the methods tested to events at different thresholds above magnitude M ≥ 7 in the global earthquake catalogue since 1918, after first declustering the catalogue. This is most effectively done by removing likely correlated events using a much lower magnitude threshold (M ≥ 5), where triggering is much more obvious. We find no strong evidence that the background rate of large

Deformation of conjugate compliant fault zones induced by the 2013 Mw7.7 Baluchistan (Pakistan) earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Rishabh; Wang, Teng; Feng, Guangcai; Harrington, Jonathan; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes; Jónsson, Sigurjón

2017-04-01

Strain localizations in compliant fault zones (with elastic moduli lower than the surrounding rocks) induced by nearby earthquakes have been detected using geodetic observations in a few cases in the past. Here we observe small-scale changes in interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements along multiple conjugate faults near the rupture of the 2013 Mw7.7 Baluchistan (Pakistan) earthquake. After removing the main coseismic deformation signal in the interferograms and correcting them for topography-related phase, we observe 2-3 cm signal along several conjugate faults that are 15-30 km from the mainshock fault rupture. These conjugate compliant faults have strikes of N30°E and N45°W. The sense of motion indicates left-lateral deformation across the N30°E faults and right-lateral deformation across the N45°W faults, which suggests the conjugate faults were subjected to extensional coseismic stresses along the WSW-ENE direction. The spacing between the different sets of faults is around 5 to 8 km. We explain the observed strain localizations as an elastic response of the compliant conjugate faults induced by the Baluchistan earthquake. Using 3D Finite Element models (FEM), we impose coseismic static displacements due to the earthquake along the boundaries of the FEM domain to reproduce the coseismic stress changes acting across the compliant faults. The InSAR measurements are used to constrain the geometry and rigidity variations of the compliant faults with respect to the surrounding rocks. The best fitting models show the compliant fault zones to have a width of 0.5 km to 2 km and a reduction of the shear modulus by a factor of 3 to 4. Our study yields similar values as were found for compliant fault zones near the 1992 Landers and the 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes in California, although here the strain localization is occurring on more complex conjugate sets of faults.

Late Holocene earthquakes on the Toe Jam Hill fault, Seattle fault zone, Bainbridge Island, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, A.R.; Johnson, S.Y.; Kelsey, H.M.; Wells, R.E.; Sherrod, B.L.; Pezzopane, S.K.; Bradley, L.A.; Koehler, R. D.; Bucknam, R.C.

2003-01-01

Five trenches across a Holocene fault scarp yield the first radiocarbon-measured earthquake recurrence intervals for a crustal fault in western Washington. The scarp, the first to be revealed by laser imagery, marks the Toe Jam Hill fault, a north-dipping backthrust to the Seattle fault. Folded and faulted strata, liquefaction features, and forest soil A horizons buried by hanging-wall-collapse colluvium record three, or possibly four, earthquakes between 2500 and 1000 yr ago. The most recent earthquake is probably the 1050-1020 cal. (calibrated) yr B.P. (A.D. 900-930) earthquake that raised marine terraces and triggered a tsunami in Puget Sound. Vertical deformation estimated from stratigraphic and surface offsets at trench sites suggests late Holocene earthquake magnitudes near M7, corresponding to surface ruptures >36 km long. Deformation features recording poorly understood latest Pleistocene earthquakes suggest that they were smaller than late Holocene earthquakes. Postglacial earthquake recurrence intervals based on 97 radiocarbon ages, most on detrital charcoal, range from ???12,000 yr to as little as a century or less; corresponding fault-slip rates are 0.2 mm/yr for the past 16,000 yr and 2 mm/yr for the past 2500 yr. Because the Toe Jam Hill fault is a backthrust to the Seattle fault, it may not have ruptured during every earthquake on the Seattle fault. But the earthquake history of the Toe Jam Hill fault is at least a partial proxy for the history of the rest of the Seattle fault zone.

Potential Seismic Signatures of Megathrust Preparatory Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parameswaran, R. M.; Maheswari, K.; Rajendran, K.

2017-12-01

The Mw 9.2, 2004 Sumatra earthquake awakened the otherwise inactive Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone (ASSZ), pushing it into an era of amplified seismicity. The subduction zone has since witnessed an array of inter- and intra-plate events along and around its trench. Several intra-plate events like the 2012 Wharton Basin earthquakes (Mw 8.6 and 8.2), are believed to be the triggered response of the plateward transmission of stresses due to the 2004 earthquake (Ishii et al., 2013). On the other hand, the Mw 7.5, 2009 33-km-deep intra-plate normal-faulting event in the northern Andaman segment is an example of outer-rise seismicity resulting from the post-seismic relaxation of the subducting slab (Andrade and Rajendran, 2011). These are aftermaths of a drastic change in the stress regime from compressional to extensional, following the 2004 megathrust event. But, pre-megathrust, aside from the inter-plate thrust mechanisms that are widely observed along the trench, how does the plate-motion-driven compression manifest in the regional seismicity? What happens to the stresses accumulating within the bending subducting slab; does it source deeper compressional events prior to a megathrust? The 2009 normal outer-rise earthquake was preceded by the 13 September 2002, Mw 6.5 Diglipur outer-rise thrust earthquake (22 km depth), both occurring at the northern terminus of the 2004-rupture, in the compressing forearc that experienced surface uplift pre-megathrust (Rajendran et al., 2003; Rajendran et al., 2007). This work, therefore, examines the slip models of such pre-event outer-rise thrust earthquakes along the stretch of the 2004 rupture zone in the ASSZ. The work is also being extended to understand the preparatory zones of other global megathrust earthquakes.

Quantifying potential tsunami hazard in the Puysegur subduction zone, south of New Zealand

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, G.P.; Furlong, K.P.

2010-01-01

Studies of subduction zone seismogenesis and tsunami potential, particularly of large subduction zones, have recently seen a resurgence after the great 2004 earthquake and tsunami offshore of Sumatra, yet these global studies have generally neglected the tsunami potential of small subduction zones such as the Puysegur subduction zone, south of New Zealand. Here, we study one such relatively small subduction zone by analysing the historical seismicity over the entire plate boundary region south of New Zealand, using these data to determine the seismic moment deficit of the subduction zone over the past ~100 yr. Our calculations indicate unreleased moment equivalent to a magnitude Mw 8.3 earthquake, suggesting this subduction zone has the potential to host a great, tsunamigenic event. We model this tsunami hazard and find that a tsunami caused by a great earthquake on the Puysegur subduction zone would pose threats to the coasts of southern and western South Island, New Zealand, Tasmania and southeastern Australia, nearly 2000 km distant. No claim to original US government works Geophysical Journal International ?? 2010 RAS.

The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, A. J.

2015-12-01

Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

Elastic Properties of Subduction Zone Materials in the Large Shallow Slip Environment for the Tohoku 2011 Earthquake: Laboratory data from JFAST Core Samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeppson, T.; Tobin, H. J.

2014-12-01

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw=9.0) produced large displacements of ~50 meters near the Japan Trench. In order to understand earthquake propagation and slip stabilization in this environment, quantitative values of the real elastic properties of fault zones and their surrounding wall rock material is crucial. Because elastic and mechanical properties of faults and wallrocks are controlling factors in fault strength, earthquake generation and propagation, and slip stabilization, an understanding of these properties and their depth dependence is essential to understanding and accurately modeling earthquake rupture. In particular, quantitatively measured S-wave speeds, needed for estimation of elastic properties, are scarce in the literature. We report laboratory ultrasonic velocity measurements performed at elevated pressures, as well as the calculated dynamic elastic moduli, for samples of the rock surrounding the Tohoku earthquake principal fault zone recovered by drilling during IODP Expedition 343, Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project (JFAST). We performed measurements on five samples of gray mudstone from the hanging wall and one sample of underthrust brown mudstone from the footwall. We find P- and S-wave velocities of 2.0 to 2.4 km/s and 0.7 to 1.0 km/s, respectively, at 5 MPa effective pressure. At the same effective pressure, the hanging wall samples have shear moduli ranging from 1.4 to 2.2 GPa and the footwall sample has a shear modulus of 1.0 GPa. While these values are perhaps not surprising for shallow, clay-rich subduction zone sediments, they are substantially lower than the 30 GPa commonly assumed for rigidity in earthquake rupture and propagation models [e.g., Ide et al., 1993; Liu and Rice, 2005; Loveless and Meade, 2011]. In order to better understand the elastic properties of shallow subduction zone sediments, our measurements from the Japan Trench are compared to similar shallow drill core samples from the Nankai Trough, Costa Rica

Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

Earthquake Forecasting in Northeast India using Energy Blocked Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohapatra, A. K.; Mohanty, D. K.

2009-12-01

In the present study, the cumulative seismic energy released by earthquakes (M ≥ 5) for a period 1897 to 2007 is analyzed for Northeast (NE) India. It is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. The occurrence of three great earthquakes like 1897 Shillong plateau earthquake (Mw= 8.7), 1934 Bihar Nepal earthquake with (Mw= 8.3) and 1950 Upper Assam earthquake (Mw= 8.7) signify the possibility of great earthquakes in future from this region. The regional seismicity map for the study region is prepared by plotting the earthquake data for the period 1897 to 2007 from the source like USGS,ISC catalogs, GCMT database, Indian Meteorological department (IMD). Based on the geology, tectonic and seismicity the study region is classified into three source zones such as Zone 1: Arakan-Yoma zone (AYZ), Zone 2: Himalayan Zone (HZ) and Zone 3: Shillong Plateau zone (SPZ). The Arakan-Yoma Range is characterized by the subduction zone, developed by the junction of the Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate. It shows a dense clustering of earthquake events and the 1908 eastern boundary earthquake. The Himalayan tectonic zone depicts the subduction zone, and the Assam syntaxis. This zone suffered by the great earthquakes like the 1950 Assam, 1934 Bihar and the 1951 Upper Himalayan earthquakes with Mw > 8. The Shillong Plateau zone was affected by major faults like the Dauki fault and exhibits its own style of the prominent tectonic features. The seismicity and hazard potential of Shillong Plateau is distinct from the Himalayan thrust. Using energy blocked model by Tsuboi, the forecasting of major earthquakes for each source zone is estimated. As per the energy blocked model, the supply of energy for potential earthquakes in an area is remarkably uniform with respect to time and the difference between the supply energy and cumulative energy released for a span of time, is a good indicator of energy blocked and can be utilized for the forecasting of major earthquakes

Geologic Evidence of Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Mexican Subduction zone - Guerrero

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Lagos, M.; Hutchinson, I.; Ruiz-Fernández, A.; Machain, M.; Caballero, M.; Rangel, V.; Nava, H.; Corona, N.; Bautista, F.; Kostoglodov, V.; Goguitchaichrili, A.; Morales, J.; Quintana, P.

2010-12-01

A study of large historic and prehistoric earthquakes and their tsunamis using a multiproxy approach (geomorphic features, sediment deposits, microfossils, sediment geochemistry and more recently the use of magnetic properties) has provided valuable information in the assessment of earthquake and tsunami record. The Pacific coast of Mexico is located over the active subduction zone (~1000 km) that has experienced numerous large magnitude earthquakes in historical time (Mw>7.5), and more than 50 documented tsunamis since 1732. Geomorphic and stratigraphic studies through test pits at 13 sites on the Guerrero coast reveal distinct stratigraphic changes with depth, indicating clear rapid change in depositional environments over time. Microfossil ecology (diatoms and foraminifera), sediment geochemistry (concentration increment in elements such as Sr, Ba, Ca, P, Si, K), stratigraphy, sediment magnetic properties (magnetic susceptibility anisotropy for the first time applied in tsunami deposits identification) and other proxies are indicative of sudden changes in land level and tsunami deposits. Buried evidence of liquefaction confirms the occurrence of a large earthquake at Barra de Potosi and Ixtapa, Guerrero. Preliminary 210Pb analysis suggests a sedimentation rate of ca. 0.1±0.01 cm/year and an estimated minimum age of ~ 100 years (maximum age at ca. 450 years?) for the most recent earthquake. At least three large events can be recognized by sharp contacts and sand layers in the sedimentary record. Ongoing C14, OSL and 210Pb dating will constrain the timing of these events. Deposits from three marine inwash events (tsunamis) dating from the past 4600 years have been identified on the Guerrero coast. A near-surface sand bed with a sharp basal contact overlying soil at sites near Ixtapa and Barra de Potosi most probably marks the tsunami following the 1985 Mw 8.2 earthquake. Interviews with Barra de Potosi fishermen and locals corroborate that these sites were

Stratigraphic and microfossil evidence for a 4500-year history of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis at Yaquina River estuary, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graehl, Nicholas A; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Witter, Robert C.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Engelhart, Simon E.

2015-01-01

The Sallys Bend swamp and marsh area on the central Oregon coast onshore of the Cascadia subduction zone contains a sequence of buried coastal wetland soils that extends back ∼4500 yr B.P. The upper 10 of the 12 soils are represented in multiple cores. Each soil is abruptly overlain by a sandy deposit and then, in most cases, by greater than 10 cm of mud. For eight of the 10 buried soils, times of soil burial are constrained through radiocarbon ages on fine, delicate detritus from the top of the buried soil; for two of the buried soils, diatom and foraminifera data constrain paleoenvironment at the time of soil burial.We infer that each buried soil represents a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake because the soils are laterally extensive and abruptly overlain by sandy deposits and mud. Preservation of coseismically buried soils occurred from 4500 yr ago until ∼500–600 yr ago, after which preservation was compromised by cessation of gradual relative sea-level rise, which in turn precluded drowning of marsh soils during instances of coseismic subsidence. Based on grain-size and microfossil data, sandy deposits overlying buried soils accumulated immediately after a subduction zone earthquake, during tsunami incursion into Sallys Bend. The possibility that the sandy deposits were sourced directly from landslides triggered upstream in the Yaquina River basin by seismic shaking was discounted based on sedimentologic, microfossil, and depositional site characteristics of the sandy deposits, which were inconsistent with a fluvial origin. Biostratigraphic analyses of sediment above two buried soils—in the case of two earthquakes, one occurring shortly after 1541–1708 cal. yr B.P. and the other occurring shortly after 3227–3444 cal. yr B.P.—provide estimates that coseismic subsidence was a minimum of 0.4 m. The average recurrence interval of subduction zone earthquakes is 420–580 yr, based on an ∼3750–4050-yr-long record and seven to nine interearthquake

Seismic structure of southern margin of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake aftershocks area: slab-slab contact zone beneath northeastern Kanto, central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurashimo, E.; Sato, H.; Abe, S.; Mizohata, S.; Hirata, N.

2011-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake (Mw9.0) occurred on the Japan Trench off the eastern shore of northern Honshu, Japan. The southward expansion of the afterslip area has reached the Kanto region, central Japan (Ozawa et al., 2011). The Philippine Sea Plate (PHS) subducts beneath the Kanto region. The bottom of the PHS is in contact with the upper surface of the Pacific Plate (PAC) beneath northeastern Kanto. Detailed structure of the PHS-PAC contact zone is important to constrain the southward rupture process of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake and provide new insight into the process of future earthquake occurrence beneath the Kanto region. Active and passive seismic experiments were conducted to obtain a structural image beneath northeastern Kanto in 2010 (Sato et al., 2010). The geometry of upper surface of the PHS has been revealed by seismic reflection profiling (Sato et al., 2010). Passive seismic data set is useful to obtain a deep structural image. Two passive seismic array observations were conducted to obtain a detailed structure image of the PHS-PAC contact zone beneath northeastern Kanto. One was carried out along a 50-km-long seismic line trending NE-SW (KT-line) and the other was carried out along a 65-km-long seismic line trending NW-SE (TM-line). Sixty-five 3-component portable seismographs were deployed on KT-line with 500 to 700 m interval and waveforms were continuously recorded during a four-month period from June, 2010. Forty-five 3-component portable seismographs were deployed on TM-line with about 1-2 km spacing and waveforms were continuously recorded during the seven-month period from June, 2010. Arrival times of earthquakes were used in a joint inversion for earthquake locations and velocity structure, using the iterative damped least-squares algorithm, simul2000 (Thurber and Eberhart-Phillips, 1999). The relocated hypocenter distribution shows that the seismicity along the upper surface of the PAC is located at depths of 45-75 km beneath

A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr

North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson methodmore » the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M{sub S}=7.3 and 1897, M{sub S}=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M{sub S} magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9

Coseismic gravitational potential energy changes induced by global earthquakes during 1976 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C.; Chao, B. F.

2017-12-01

We compute the coseismic change in the gravitational potential energy Eg using the spherical-Earth elastic dislocation theory and either the fault model treated as a point source or the finite fault model. The rate of the accumulative coseismic Eg loss produced by historical earthquakes from 1976 to 2016 (about 4, 2000 events) using the GCMT catalogue are estimated to be on the order of -2.1×1020 J/a, or -6.7 TW (1 TW = 1012 watt), amounting to 15% in the total terrestrial heat flow. The energy loss is dominated by the thrust-faulting, especially the mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.0) and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.1). It's notable that the very deep-focus earthquakes, the 1994 Bolivia earthquake (Mw 8.2) and the 2013 Okhotsk earthquake (Mw 8.3), produced significant overall coseismic Eg gain according to our calculation. The accumulative coseismic Eg is mainly released in the mantle with a decrease tendency, and the core of the Earth also lost the coseismic Eg but with a relatively smaller magnitude. By contrast, the crust of the Earth gains Eg cumulatively because of the coseismic deformations. We further investigate the tectonic signature in these coseismic crustal gravitational potential energy changes in the complex tectonic zone, such as Taiwan region and the northeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

2018-04-01

After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

2017-11-01

After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

Earthquakes: Risk, Monitoring, Notification, and Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-02

Global Seismic Network (GSN). The GSN is a system of broadband digital seismographs arrayed around the globe and designed to collect high-quality...39 states face some risk from earthquakes. Seismic hazards are greatest in the western United States, particularly California, Alaska, Washington...Oregon, and Hawaii. The Rocky Mountain region, a portion of the central United States known as the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and portions of the eastern

GPS Technologies as a Tool to Detect the Pre-Earthquake Signals Associated with Strong Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulinets, S. A.; Krankowski, A.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Liu, J. Y. G.; Hattori, K.; Davidenko, D.; Ouzounov, D.

2015-12-01

The existence of ionospheric anomalies before earthquakes is now widely accepted. These phenomena started to be considered by GPS community to mitigate the GPS signal degradation over the territories of the earthquake preparation. The question is still open if they could be useful for seismology and for short-term earthquake forecast. More than decade of intensive studies proved that ionospheric anomalies registered before earthquakes are initiated by processes in the boundary layer of atmosphere over earthquake preparation zone and are induced in the ionosphere by electromagnetic coupling through the Global Electric Circuit. Multiparameter approach based on the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling model demonstrated that earthquake forecast is possible only if we consider the final stage of earthquake preparation in the multidimensional space where every dimension is one from many precursors in ensemble, and they are synergistically connected. We demonstrate approaches developed in different countries (Russia, Taiwan, Japan, Spain, and Poland) within the framework of the ISSI and ESA projects) to identify the ionospheric precursors. They are also useful to determine the all three parameters necessary for the earthquake forecast: impending earthquake epicenter position, expectation time and magnitude. These parameters are calculated using different technologies of GPS signal processing: time series, correlation, spectral analysis, ionospheric tomography, wave propagation, etc. Obtained results from different teams demonstrate the high level of statistical significance and physical justification what gives us reason to suggest these methodologies for practical validation.

Continuity of the West Napa–Franklin fault zone inferred from guided waves generated by earthquakes following the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catchings, Rufus D.; Goldman, Mark R.; Li, Yong-Gang; Chan, Joanne

2016-01-01

We measure peak ground velocities from fault‐zone guided waves (FZGWs), generated by on‐fault earthquakes associated with the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake. The data were recorded on three arrays deployed across north and south of the 2014 surface rupture. The observed FZGWs indicate that the West Napa fault zone (WNFZ) and the Franklin fault (FF) are continuous in the subsurface for at least 75 km. Previously published potential‐field data indicate that the WNFZ extends northward to the Maacama fault (MF), and previous geologic mapping indicates that the FF extends southward to the Calaveras fault (CF); this suggests a total length of at least 110 km for the WNFZ–FF. Because the WNFZ–FF appears contiguous with the MF and CF, these faults apparently form a continuous Calaveras–Franklin–WNFZ–Maacama (CFWM) fault that is second only in length (∼300  km) to the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay area. The long distances over which we observe FZGWs, coupled with their high amplitudes (2–10 times the S waves) suggest that strong shaking from large earthquakes on any part of the CFWM fault may cause far‐field amplified fault‐zone shaking. We interpret guided waves and seismicity cross sections to indicate multiple upper crustal splays of the WNFZ–FF, including a northward extension of the Southhampton fault, which may cause strong shaking in the Napa Valley and the Vallejo area. Based on travel times from each earthquake to each recording array, we estimate average P‐, S‐, and guided‐wave velocities within the WNFZ–FF (4.8–5.7, 2.2–3.2, and 1.1–2.8  km/s, respectively), with FZGW velocities ranging from 58% to 93% of the average S‐wave velocities.

Geometry and velocity structure of the northern Costa Rica seismogenic zone from 3D local earthquake tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshon, H. R.; Schwartz, S. Y.; Newman, A. V.; Dorman, L. M.; Protti, M.; Gonzalez, V.

2003-12-01

We present results of a 3D local earthquake tomography study of the Middle America Trench seismogenic zone in northern Costa Rica. Local earthquake tomography can provide constraints on the updip, downdip, and lateral variability of seismicity and P- and S-wave velocities; these constraints may in turn provide information on compositional and/or mechanical variability along the seismogenic zone. We use arrival time data recorded by the Nicoya Peninsula seismic array, part of the Costa Rica seismogenic zone experiment (CRSEIZE), a collaborative effort undertaken to better understand seismogenic behavior at the Costa Rica subduction zone using data from land and ocean bottom seismic arrays, oceanic fluid flux meters, and GPS receivers. We invert ˜10,000 P-wave and S-wave arrival times from 475 well-recorded local earthquakes (GAP < 180° , >8 P-wave arrivals) to solve for the best-fitting 1D P- and S-wave velocity models, station corrections, and hypocenters using the algorithm VELEST. These 1D velocity models are used as a starting models for 3D simultaneous inversion using the algorithm SIMULPS14. Preliminary P-wave inversions contain a positive velocity anomaly dipping beneath the Nicoya Peninsula, interpreted as the subducting Cocos Plate. Earthquakes occur in a narrow band along the slab-continent interface and are consistent with the results of Newman et al. (2002). The updip limit of seismicity occurs ˜5 km deeper and 5-10 km landward in the northern vs. the southern Nicoya Peninsula, and this shift spatially correlates to the change from Cocos-Nazca to East Pacific Rise derived oceanic plate. P-wave velocities in the upper 5-10 km of the model are consistent with the geology of the Nicoya Peninsula. We will correlate relocated microseismicity to previously noted variability in oceanic plate morphology, heat flow, fluid flow, and thermal structure and compare the resulting P- and S-wave velocity models to wide-angle refraction models and hypothesized mantle

Distribution of stress drop, stiffness, and fracture energy over earthquake rupture zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, Joe B.; McGarr, A.

2006-01-01

Using information provided by slip models and the methodology of McGarr and Fletcher (2002), we map static stress drop, stiffness (k = ????/u, where ???? is static stress drop and u is slip), and fracture energy over the slip surface to investigate the earthquake rupture process and energy budget. For the 1994 M6.7 Northridge, 1992 M7.3 Landers, and 1995 M6.9 Kobe earthquakes, the distributions of static stress drop show strong heterogeneity, emphasizing the importance of asperities in the rupture process. Average values of static stress drop are 17, 11, and 4 Mpa for Northridge, Landers, and Kobe, respectively. These values are substantially higher than estimates based on simple crack models, suggesting that the failure process involves the rupture of asperities within the larger fault zone. Stress drop as a function of depth for the Northridge and Landers earthquakes suggests that stress drops are limited by crustal strength. For these two earthquakes, regions of high slip are surrounded by high values of stiffness. Particularly for the Northridge earthquake, the prominent patch of high slip in the central part of the fault is bordered by a ring of high stiffness and is consistent with expectations based on the failure of an asperity loaded at its edge due to exterior slip. Stiffness within an asperity is inversely related to its dimensions. Estimates of fracture energy, based on static stress drop, slip, and rupture speed, were used to investigate the nature of slip weakening at four locations near the hypocenter of the Kobe earthquake for comparison with independent results based on a dynamic model of this earthquake. One subfault updip and to the NE of the hypocenter has a fracture energy of 1.1 MJ/m2 and a slip-weakening distance, Dc, of 0.66 m. Right triangles, whose base and height are Dc and the dynamic stress drop, respectively, approximately overlie the slip-dependent stress given by Ide and Takeo (1997) for the same locations near the hypocenter. The

Quantitative analysis of seismic fault zone waves in the rupture zone of the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake: Evidence for a shallow trapping structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peng, Z.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Michael, A.J.; Zhu, L.

2003-01-01

We analyse quantitatively a waveform data set of 238 earthquakes recorded by a dense seismic array across and along the rupture zone of the 1992 Landers earthquake. A grid-search method with station delay corrections is used to locate events that do not have catalogue locations. The quality of fault zone trapped waves generated by each event is determined from the ratios of seismic energy in time windows corresponding to trapped waves and direct S waves at stations close to and off the fault zone. Approximately 70 per cent of the events with S-P times of less than 2 s, including many clearly off the fault, produce considerable trapped wave energy. This distribution is in marked contrast with previous claims that trapped waves are generated only by sources close to or inside the Landers rupture zone. The time difference between the S arrival and trapped waves group does not grow systematically with increasing hypocentral distance and depth. The dispersion measured from the trapped waves is weak. These results imply that the seismic trapping structure at the Landers rupture zone is shallow and does not extend continuously along-strike by more than a few kilometres. Synthetic waveform modelling indicates that the fault zone waveguide has depth of approximately 2-4 km, a width of approximately 200 m, an S-wave velocity reduction relative to the host rock of approximately 30-40 per cent and an S-wave attenuation coefficient of approximately 20-30. The fault zone waveguide north of the array appears to be shallower and weaker than that south of the array. The waveform modelling also indicates that the seismic trapping structure below the array is centred approximately 100 m east of the surface break.

Earthquakes in the Orozco transform zone: seismicity, source mechanisms, and tectonics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tréhu, Anne M.; Solomon, Sean C.

1983-01-01

As part of the Rivera Ocean Seismic Experiment, a network of ocean bottom seismometers and hydrophones was deployed in order to determine the seismic characteristics of the Orozco transform fault in the central eastern Pacific. We present hypocentral locations and source mechanisms for 70 earthquakes recorded by this network. All epicenters are within the transform region of the Orozco Fracture Zone and clearly delineate the active plate boundary. About half of the epicenters define a narrow line of activity parallel to the spreading direction and situated along a deep topographic trough that forms the northern boundary of the transform zone (region 1). Most focal depths for these events are very shallow, within 4 km of the seafloor; several well-determined focal depths, however, are as great as 7 km. No shallowing of seismic activity is observed as the rise-transform intersection is approached; to the contrary, the deepest events are within 10 km of the intersection. First motion polarities for most of the earthquakes in region 1 are compatible with right-lateral strike slip faulting along a nearly vertical plane, striking parallel to the spreading direction. Another zone of activity is observed in the central part of the transform (region 2). The apparent horizontal and vertical distribution of activity in this region is more scattered than in the first, and the first motion radiation patterns of these events do not appear to be compatible with any known fault mechanism. Pronounced lateral variations in crustal velocity structure are indicated for the transform region from refraction data and measurements of wave propagation directions. The effect of this lateral heterogeneity on hypocenters and fault plane solutions is evaluated by tracing rays through a three-dimensional velocity grid. While findings for events in region 1 are not significantly affected, in region 2, epicentral mislocations of up to 10 km and azimuthal deflections of up to 45° may result from

Forearc deformation and great subduction earthquakes: implications for cascadia offshore earthquake potential.

PubMed

McCaffrey, R; Goldfinger, C

1995-02-10

The maximum size of thrust earthquakes at the world's subduction zones appears to be limited by anelastic deformation of the overriding plate. Anelastic strain in weak forearcs and roughness of the plate interface produced by faults cutting the forearc may limit the size of thrust earthquakes by inhibiting the buildup of elastic strain energy or slip propagation or both. Recently discovered active strike-slip faults in the submarine forearc of the Cascadia subduction zone show that the upper plate there deforms rapidly in response to arc-parallel shear. Thus, Cascadia, as a result of its weak, deforming upper plate, may be the type of subduction zone at which great (moment magnitude approximately 9) thrust earthquakes do not occur.

A Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake in the Tacoma Fault Zone-A Plausible Scenario for the Southern Puget Sound Region, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan; Sherrod, Brian; Weaver, Craig; Frankel, Art

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating scientists have recently assessed the effects of a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on the Tacoma Fault Zone in Pierce County, Washington. A quake of comparable magnitude struck the southern Puget Sound region about 1,100 years ago, and similar earthquakes are almost certain to occur in the future. The region is now home to hundreds of thousands of people, who would be at risk from the shaking, liquefaction, landsliding, and tsunamis caused by such an earthquake. The modeled effects of this scenario earthquake will help emergency planners and residents of the region prepare for future quakes.

A large silent earthquake and the future rupture of the Guerrero seismic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostoglodov, V.; Lowry, A.; Singh, S.; Larson, K.; Santiago, J.; Franco, S.; Bilham, R.

2003-04-01

The largest global earthquakes typically occur at subduction zones, at the seismogenic boundary between two colliding tectonic plates. These earthquakes release elastic strains accumulated over many decades of plate motion. Forecasts of these events have large errors resulting from poor knowledge of the seismic cycle. The discovery of slow slip events or "silent earthquakes" in Japan, Alaska, Cascadia and Mexico provides a new glimmer of hope. In these subduction zones, the seismogenic part of the plate interface is loading not steadily as hitherto believed, but incrementally, partitioning the stress buildup with the slow slip events. If slow aseismic slip is limited to the region downdip of the future rupture zone, slip events may increase the stress at the base of the seismogenic region, incrementing it closer to failure. However if some aseismic slip occurs on the future rupture zone, the partitioning may significantly reduce the stress buildup rate (SBR) and delay a future large earthquake. Here we report characteristics of the largest slow earthquake observed to date (Mw 7.5), and its implications for future failure of the Guerrero seismic gap, Mexico. The silent earthquake began in October 2001 and lasted for 6-7 months. Slow slip produced measurable displacements over an area of 550x250 km2. Average slip on the interface was about 10 cm and the equivalent magnitude, Mw, was 7.5. A shallow subhorizontal configuration of the plate interface in Guererro is a controlling factor for the physical conditions favorable for such extensive slow slip. The total coupled zone in Guerrero is 120-170 km wide while the seismogenic, shallowest portion is only 50 km. This future rupture zone may slip contemporaneously with the deeper aseismic sleep, thereby reducing SBR. The slip partitioning between seismogenic and transition coupled zones may diminish SBR up to 50%. These two factors are probably responsible for a long (at least since 1911) quiet on the Guerrero seismic gap

Strain-dependent Damage Evolution and Velocity Reduction in Fault Zones Induced by Earthquake Rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, J.; Duan, B.

2009-12-01

Low-velocity fault zones (LVFZs) with reduced seismic velocities relative to the surrounding wall rocks are widely observed around active faults. The presence of such a zone will affect rupture propagation, near-field ground motion, and off-fault damage in subsequent earth-quakes. In this study, we quantify the reduction of seismic velocities caused by dynamic rup-ture on a 2D planar fault surrounded by a low-velocity fault zone. First, we implement the damage rheology (Lyakhovsky et al. 1997) in EQdyna (Duan and Oglesby 2006), an explicit dynamic finite element code. We further extend this damage rheology model to include the dependence of strains on crack density. Then, we quantify off-fault continuum damage distribution and velocity reduction induced by earthquake rupture with the presence of a preexisting LVFZ. We find that the presence of a LVFZ affects the tempo-spatial distribu-tions of off-fault damage. Because lack of constraint in some damage parameters, we further investigate the relationship between velocity reduction and these damage prameters by a large suite of numerical simulations. Slip velocity, slip, and near-field ground motions computed from damage rheology are also compared with those from off-fault elastic or elastoplastic responses. We find that the reduction in elastic moduli during dynamic rupture has profound impact on these quantities.

The energy release in earthquakes, and subduction zone seismicity and stress in slabs. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vassiliou, M. S.

1983-01-01

Energy release in earthquakes is discussed. Dynamic energy from source time function, a simplified procedure for modeling deep focus events, static energy estimates, near source energy studies, and energy and magnitude are addressed. Subduction zone seismicity and stress in slabs are also discussed.

Fast Identification of Near-Trench Earthquakes Along the Mexican Subduction Zone Based on Characteristics of Ground Motion in Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Campos, X.; Singh, S. K.; Arroyo, D.; Rodríguez, Q.; Iglesias, A.

2015-12-01

The disastrous 1985 Michoacan earthquake gave rise to a seismic alert system for Mexico City which became operational in 1991. Initially limited to earthquakes along the Guerrero coast, the system now has a much wider coverage. Also, the 2004 Sumatra earthquake exposed the need for a tsunami early warning along the Mexican subduction zone. A fast identification of near-trench earthquakes along this zone may be useful in issuing a reliable early tsunami alert. The confusion caused by low PGA for the magnitude of an earthquake, leading to "missed" seismic alert, would be averted if its near-trench origin can be quickly established. It may also help reveal the spatial extent and degree of seismic coupling on the near-trench portion of the plate interface. This would lead to a better understanding of tsunami potential and seismic hazard along the Mexican subduction zone. We explore three methods for quick detection of near-trench earthquakes, testing them on recordings of 65 earthquakes at station CU in Mexico City (4.8 ≤Mw≤8.0; 270≤R≤615 km). The first method is based on the ratio of total to high-frequency energy, ER (Shapiro et al., 1998). The second method is based on parameter Sa*(6) which is the pseudo-acceleration response spectrum with 5% damping, Sa, at 6 s normalized by the PGA. The third parameter is the PGA residual, RESN, at CU, with respect to a newly-derived ground motion prediction equation at CU for coastal shallow-dipping thrust earthquakes following a bayesian approach. Since the near-trench earthquakes are relatively deficient in high-frequency radiation, we expect ER and Sa*(6) to be relatively large and RESN to be negative for such events. Tests on CU recordings show that if ER ≥ 100 and/or Sa*(6) ≥ 0.70, then the earthquake is near trench; for these events RESN ≤ 0. Such an event has greater tsunami potential. Few misidentifications and missed events are most probably a consequence of poor location, although unusual depth and source

What Controls Subduction Earthquake Size and Occurrence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruff, L. J.

2008-12-01

There is a long history of observational studies on the size and recurrence intervals of the large underthrusting earthquakes in subduction zones. In parallel with this documentation of the variability in both recurrence times and earthquake sizes -- both within and amongst subduction zones -- there have been numerous suggestions for what controls size and occurrence. In addition to the intrinsic scientific interest in these issues, there are direct applications to hazards mitigation. In this overview presentation, I review past progress, consider current paradigms, and look toward future studies that offer some resolution of long- standing questions. Given the definition of seismic moment, earthquake size is the product of overall static stress drop, down-dip fault width, and along-strike fault length. The long-standing consensus viewpoint is that for the largest earthquakes in a subduction zone: stress-drop is constant, fault width is the down-dip extent of the seismogenic portion of the plate boundary, but that along-strike fault length can vary from one large earthquake to the next. While there may be semi-permanent segments along a subduction zone, successive large earthquakes can rupture different combinations of segments. Many investigations emphasize the role of asperities within the segments, rather than segment edges. Thus, the question of earthquake size is translated into: "What controls the along-strike segmentation, and what determines which segments will rupture in a particular earthquake cycle?" There is no consensus response to these questions. Over the years, the suggestions for segmentation control include physical features in the subducted plate, physical features in the over-lying plate, and more obscure -- and possibly ever-changing -- properties of the plate interface such as the hydrologic conditions. It seems that the full global answer requires either some unforeseen breakthrough, or the long-term hard work of falsifying all candidate

The Cascadia Subduction Zone and related subduction systems: seismic structure, intraslab earthquakes and processes, and earthquake hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirby, Stephen H.; Wang, Kelin; Dunlop, Susan

2002-01-01

The following report is the principal product of an international workshop titled “Intraslab Earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction System: Science and Hazards” and was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geological Survey of Canada and the University of Victoria. This meeting was held at the University of Victoria’s Dunsmuir Lodge, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada on September 18–21, 2000 and brought 46 participants from the U.S., Canada, Latin America and Japan. This gathering was organized to bring together active research investigators in the science of subduction and intraslab earthquake hazards. Special emphasis was given to “warm-slab” subduction systems, i.e., those systems involving young oceanic lithosphere subducting at moderate to slow rates, such as the Cascadia system in the U.S. and Canada, and the Nankai system in Japan. All the speakers and poster presenters provided abstracts of their presentations that were a made available in an abstract volume at the workshop. Most of the authors subsequently provided full articles or extended abstracts for this volume on the topics that they discussed at the workshop. Where updated versions were not provided, the original workshop abstracts have been included. By organizing this workshop and assembling this volume, our aim is to provide a global perspective on the science of warm-slab subduction, to thereby advance our understanding of internal slab processes and to use this understanding to improve appraisals of the hazards associated with large intraslab earthquakes in the Cascadia system. These events have been the most frequent and damaging earthquakes in western Washington State over the last century. As if to underscore this fact, just six months after this workshop was held, the magnitude 6.8 Nisqually earthquake occurred on February 28th, 2001 at a depth of about 55 km in the Juan de Fuca slab beneath the southern Puget Sound region of western Washington. The Governor�

Review of variations in Mw < 7 earthquake motions on position and TEC (Mw = 6.5 Aegean Sea earthquake sample)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yildirim, Omer; Inyurt, Samed; Mekik, Cetin

2016-02-01

Turkey is a country located in the middle latitude zone, where tectonic activity is intensive. Recently, an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 Mw occurred offshore in the Aegean Sea on 24 May 2014 at 09:25 UTC, which lasted about 40 s. The earthquake was also felt in Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria in addition to Turkey. In recent years, ionospheric anomaly detection studies have been carried out because of seismicity with total electron content (TEC) computed from the global navigation satellite system's (GNSS) signal delays and several interesting findings have been published. In this study, both TEC and positional variations have been examined separately following a moderate size earthquake in the Aegean Sea. The correlation of the aforementioned ionospheric variation with the positional variation has also been investigated. For this purpose, a total of 15 stations was used, including four continuously operating reference stations in Turkey (CORS-TR) and stations in the seismic zone (AYVL, CANA, IPSA, and YENC), as well as international GNSS service (IGS) and European reference frame permanent network (EPN) stations. The ionospheric and positional variations of the AYVL, CANA, IPSA, and YENC stations were examined using Bernese v5.0 software. When the precise point positioning TEC (PPP-TEC) values were examined, it was observed that the TEC values were approximately 4 TECU (total electron content unit) above the upper-limit TEC value at four stations located in Turkey, 3 days before the earthquake at 08:00 and 10:00 UTC. At the same stations, on the day before the earthquake at 06:00, 08:00, and 10:00 UTC, the TEC values were approximately 5 TECU below the lower-limit TEC value. The global ionosphere model TEC (GIM-TEC) values published by the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) were also examined. Three days before the earthquake, at all stations, it was observed that the TEC values in the time period between 08:00 and 10:00 UTC were approximately 2 TECU

Crustal Deformation in Southcentral Alaska: The 1964 Prince William Sound Earthquake Subduction Zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Steven C.; Freymueller, Jeffrey T.

2003-01-01

This article, for Advances in Geophysics, is a summary of crustal deformation studies in southcentral Alaska. In 1964, southcentral Alaska was struck by the largest earthquake (moment magnitude 9.2) occurring in historical times in North America and the second largest earthquake occurring in the world during the past century. Conventional and space-based geodetic measurements have revealed a complex temporal-spatial pattern of crustal movement. Numerical models suggest that ongoing convergence between the North America and Pacific Plates, viscoelastic rebound, aseismic creep along the tectonic plate interface, and variable plate coupling all play important roles in controlling both the surface and subsurface movements. The geodetic data sets include tide-gauge observations that in some cases provide records back to the decades preceding the earthquake, leveling data that span a few decades around the earthquake, VLBI data from the late 1980s, and GPS data since the mid-1990s. Geologic data provide additional estimates of vertical movements and a chronology of large seismic events. Some of the important features that are revealed by the ensemble of studies that are reviewed in this paper include: (1) Crustal uplift in the region that subsided by up 2 m at the time of the earthquake is as much as 1 m since the earthquake. In the Turnagain Arm and Kenai Peninsula regions of southcentral Alaska, uplift rates in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake reached 150 mm/yr , but this rapid uplift decayed rapidly after the first few years following the earthquake. (2) At some other locales, notably those away the middle of the coseismic rupture zone, postseismic uplift rates were initially slower but the rates decay over a longer time interval. At Kodiak Island, for example, the uplift rates have been decreasing at a rate of about 7mm/yr per decade. At yet other locations, the uplift rates have shown little time dependence so far, but are thought not to be sustainable

Stress development in heterogenetic lithosphere: Insights into earthquake processes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Yan; Hou, Guiting; Kusky, Timothy; Gregg, Patricia M.

2016-03-01

The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the Midwestern United States was the site of several major M 6.8-8 earthquakes in 1811-1812, and remains seismically active. Although this region has been investigated extensively, the ultimate controls on earthquake initiation and the duration of the seismicity remain unclear. In this study, we develop a finite element model for the Central United States to conduct a series of numerical experiments with the goal of determining the impact of heterogeneity in the upper crust, the lower crust, and the mantle on earthquake nucleation and rupture processes. Regional seismic tomography data (CITE) are utilized to infer the viscosity structure of the lithosphere which provide an important input to the numerical models. Results indicate that when differential stresses build in the Central United States, the stresses accumulating beneath the Reelfoot Rift in the NMSZ are highly concentrated, whereas the stresses below the geologically similar Midcontinent Rift System are comparatively low. The numerical observations coincide with the observed distribution of seismicity throughout the region. By comparing the numerical results with three reference models, we argue that an extensive mantle low velocity zone beneath the NMSZ produces differential stress localization in the layers above. Furthermore, the relatively strong crust in this region, exhibited by high seismic velocities, enables the elevated stress to extend to the base of the ancient rift system, reactivating fossil rifting faults and therefore triggering earthquakes. These results show that, if boundary displacements are significant, the NMSZ is able to localize tectonic stresses, which may be released when faults close to failure are triggered by external processes such as melting of the Laurentide ice sheet or rapid river incision.

Structure of Kilauea's southwest rift zone and western south flank defined by relocated earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinard, Bethany D.

This study is the first detailed seismic investigation of the southwest rift and western south flank of Kilauea Volcano. Earthquakes outline the tectonic and magmatic systems of the volcano. In this study, more than 4800 earthquakes from the years 1981--2001 were relocated with a double-difference method, and almost 500 were relocated with cross-correlation. The result is a much-improved image of Kilauea's south flank structure. The shallowest of the earthquakes on Kilauea (<5km) are usually related to magma movement, and occur almost exclusively in the actively intruded rift. The few tectonic earthquakes that occur at this depth are along the Koae and Hilina Fault systems. Focal mechanisms indicate that the shallow events on the Hilina system have [normal, right-lateral] oblique-slip motion. Beneath the entire south flank are earthquakes that occur on a decollement, located at a depth of 7--10km. The inland-dipping decollement structure is clearly imaged with this new data set. Earthquakes on the volcano's south flank normal faults appear to extend downward to the decollement. Earthquakes at intermediate depths image the decollement, a plane that dips inland. This is the boundary between the volcano and the old oceanic crust beneath it. Movement on faults at decollement depths of 7--10km have [right-lateral thrust] oblique-slip motion. When intrusions occur in the rift zones, the flank is forced seaward along the decollement. Since the decollement dips inland, the south flank must move up an incline as it slides seaward. Hawaii also experiences deep (>25km) earthquakes, which are the most intriguing events in this study. These earthquakes are significant because the Moho is located at a depth of 13--15km, so they are clearly occurring in the mantle. The deep events examined in this study are tectonic earthquakes, not attributable to melt migration. A high strain rate in the mantle, largely due to the geologically rapid formation of the island that has quickly

2D Simulations of Earthquake Cycles at a Subduction Zone Based on a Rate and State Friction Law -Effects of Pore Fluid Pressure Changes-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsui, Y.; Hirahara, K.

2006-12-01

There have been a lot of studies that simulate large earthquakes occurring quasi-periodically at a subduction zone, based on the laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction law [eg. Kato and Hirasawa (1997), Hirose and Hirahara (2002)]. All of them assume that pore fluid pressure in the fault zone is constant. However, in the fault zone, pore fluid pressure changes suddenly, due to coseismic pore dilatation [Marone (1990)] and thermal pressurization [Mase and Smith (1987)]. If pore fluid pressure drops and effective normal stress rises, fault slip is decelerated. Inversely, if pore fluid pressure rises and effective normal stress drops, fault slip is accelerated. The effect of pore fluid may cause slow slip events and low-frequency tremor [Kodaira et al. (2004), Shelly et al. (2006)]. For a simple spring model, how pore dilatation affects slip instability was investigated [Segall and Rice (1995), Sleep (1995)]. When the rate of the slip becomes high, pore dilatation occurs and pore pressure drops, and the rate of the slip is restrained. Then the inflow of pore fluid recovers the pore pressure. We execute 2D earthquake cycle simulations at a subduction zone, taking into account such changes of pore fluid pressure following Segall and Rice (1995), in addition to the numerical scheme in Kato and Hirasawa (1997). We do not adopt hydrostatic pore pressure but excess pore pressure for initial condition, because upflow of dehydrated water seems to exist at a subduction zone. In our model, pore fluid is confined to the fault damage zone and flows along the plate interface. The smaller the flow rate is, the later pore pressure recovers. Since effective normal stress keeps larger, the fault slip is decelerated and stress drop becomes smaller. Therefore the smaller flow rate along the fault zone leads to the shorter earthquake recurrence time. Thus, not only the frictional parameters and the subduction rate but also the fault zone permeability affects the recurrence time of

Areas prone to slow slip events impede earthquake rupture propagation and promote afterslip.

PubMed

Rolandone, Frederique; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Mothes, Patricia A; Jarrin, Paul; Vallée, Martin; Cubas, Nadaya; Hernandez, Stephen; Plain, Morgan; Vaca, Sandro; Font, Yvonne

2018-01-01

At subduction zones, transient aseismic slip occurs either as afterslip following a large earthquake or as episodic slow slip events during the interseismic period. Afterslip and slow slip events are usually considered as distinct processes occurring on separate fault areas governed by different frictional properties. Continuous GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements following the 2016 M w (moment magnitude) 7.8 Ecuador earthquake reveal that large and rapid afterslip developed at discrete areas of the megathrust that had previously hosted slow slip events. Regardless of whether they were locked or not before the earthquake, these areas appear to persistently release stress by aseismic slip throughout the earthquake cycle and outline the seismic rupture, an observation potentially leading to a better anticipation of future large earthquakes.

Areas prone to slow slip events impede earthquake rupture propagation and promote afterslip

PubMed Central

Rolandone, Frederique; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Mothes, Patricia A.; Jarrin, Paul; Vallée, Martin; Cubas, Nadaya; Hernandez, Stephen; Plain, Morgan; Vaca, Sandro; Font, Yvonne

2018-01-01

At subduction zones, transient aseismic slip occurs either as afterslip following a large earthquake or as episodic slow slip events during the interseismic period. Afterslip and slow slip events are usually considered as distinct processes occurring on separate fault areas governed by different frictional properties. Continuous GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements following the 2016 Mw (moment magnitude) 7.8 Ecuador earthquake reveal that large and rapid afterslip developed at discrete areas of the megathrust that had previously hosted slow slip events. Regardless of whether they were locked or not before the earthquake, these areas appear to persistently release stress by aseismic slip throughout the earthquake cycle and outline the seismic rupture, an observation potentially leading to a better anticipation of future large earthquakes. PMID:29404404

A possible mechanism for earthquakes found in the mantle wedge of the Nazca subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, L. M.; Chang, Y.; Prieto, G. A.

2017-12-01

Beneath Colombia, the Cauca cluster of intermediate-depth earthquakes extends for 200 km along the trench (3.5°N-5.5°N, 77.0°W-75.3°W) and, with 58 earthquakes per year with local magnitude ML >= 2.5, has a higher rate of seismicity than the subduction zone immediately to the north or south. By precisely locating 433 cluster earthquakes from 1/2010-3/2014 with data from the Colombian National Seismic Network, we found that the earthquakes are located both in a continuous Nazca plate subducting at an angle of 33°-43° and in the overlying mantle wedge. The mantle wedge earthquakes (12% of the earthquakes) form two isolated 40-km-tall columns extending perpendicular to the subducting slab. Using waveform inversion, we computed focal mechanisms for 69 of the larger earthquakes. The focal mechanisms are variable, but the intraslab earthquakes are generally consistent with an in-slab extensional stress axis oriented 25° counterclockwise from the down-dip direction. We suggest that the observed mantle wedge earthquakes are the result of hydrofracture in a relatively cool mantle wedge. This segment of the Nazca Plate is currently subducting at a normal angle, but Wagner et al. (2017) suggested that a flat slab slowly developed in the region between 9-5.9 Ma and persisted until 4 Ma. During flat slab subduction, the overlying mantle wedge typically cools because it is cut off from mantle corner flow. After hydrous minerals in the slab dehydrate, the dehydrated fluid is expelled from the slab and migrates through the mantle wedge. If a cool mantle wedge remains today, fluid dehydrated from the slab may generate earthquakes by hydrofracture, with the mantle wedge earthquakes representing fluid migration pathways. Dahm's (2000) model of water-filled fracture propagation in the mantle wedge shows hydrofractures propagating normal to the subducting slab and extending tens of km into the mantle wedge, as we observe.

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (<4 m) occurring on the megathrust about every 80 years. One exception is the AD 1730 great earthquake (M 9.0–9.5) and high tsunami (>10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has

[Characteristics of Raman spectra of minerals in the veins of Wenchuan earthquake fault zone].

PubMed

Xie, Chao; Zhou, Ben-gang; Liu, Lei; Zhou, Xiao-cheng; Yi, Li; Chen, Zhi; Cui, Yue-ju; Li, Jing; Chen, Zheng-wei; Du, Jian-guo

2015-01-01

Quartz in the veins at the Shenxigou section of Wenchuan earthquake fault zone was investigated by micro-Raman spectroscopic measurement, and the distribution of compressive stress in the fault zone was estimated by the frequency shifts of the 464 cm-1 vibrational mode of quartz grains in the veins. It was showed that the 464 cm-1 peak arising from the quartz grains in the veins near the fault plane shifts by 3. 29 cm-1 , and the corresponding compressive stress is 368. 63 MPa, which is significantly lower than the stress accumulation on both sides due to multi-stage events. Stress accumulation increased with moving away from the fault plane in the footwall with the offset of the 464 cm-1 peak arising from the quartz grains in the veins increasing, which can reach 494. 77 MPa at a distance of 21 m with a high offset of 4. 40 cm-1 of the 464 cm-1 peak. The compressive stress gets the maximum value of 519.87 MPa at a distance of 10 m from the fault plane in the hanging wall with the offset of the 464 cm-1 peak arising from the quartz grains in the veins being 4. 62 cm-1, followed by a sudden drop in stress accumulation, and it drops to 359. 59 MPa at a distance of 17 m. Because of moving away from the foult plane at the edge of the foult zone, the stress drops to 359. 59 MPa with a small value of 464 cm-1 peak offset 3. 21 cm-1 at a distance of 27 m from the fault plane in the hanging wall due to the little effect by the fault activity. Therefore, the stress of Wenchuan earthquake fault zone is partially released, but the rest of the stress distribution is uneven, and there is also a high stress accumulation in somewhere in the fault zone, which reflects that the mechanical properties of the rocks in the fault zone have a characteristic of unevenness in space.

Strain Anomalies during an Earthquake Sequence in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnadottir, T.; Haines, A. J.; Geirsson, H.; Hreinsdottir, S.

2017-12-01

The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) accommodates E-W translation due to oblique spreading between the North American/Hreppar microplate and Eurasian plate, in South Iceland. Strain is released in the SISZ during earthquake sequences that last days to years, at average intervals of 80-100 years. The SISZ is currently in the midst of an earthquake sequence that started with two M6.5 earthquakes in June 2000, and continued with two M6 earthquakes in May 2008. Estimates of geometric strain accumulation, and seismic strain release in these events indicate that they released at most only half of the strain accumulated since the last earthquake cycle in 1896-1912. Annual GPS campaigns and continuous measurements during 2001-2015 were used to calculate station velocities and strain rates from a new method using the vertical derivatives of horizontal stress (VDoHS). This new method allows higher resolution of strain rates than other (older) approaches, as the strain rates are estimated by integrating VDoHS rates obtained by inversion rather than differentiating interpolated GPS velocities. Estimating the strain rates for eight 1-2 year intervals indicates temporal and spatial variation of strain rates in the SISZ. In addition to earthquake faulting, the strain rates in the SISZ are influenced by anthropogenic signals due to geothermal exploitation, and magma movements in neighboring volcanoes - Hekla and Eyjafjallajökull. Subtle signals of post-seismic strain rate changes are seen following the June 2000 M6.5 main shocks, but interestingly, much larger strain rate variations are observed after the two May 2008 M6 main shocks. A prominent strain anomaly is evident in the epicentral area prior to the May 2008 earthquake sequence. The strain signal persists over at least 4 years in the epicentral area, leading up to the M6 main shocks. The strain is primarily extension in ESE-WNW direction (sub-parallel to the direction of plate spreading), but overall shear across the N

Subduction zone and crustal dynamics of western Washington; a tectonic model for earthquake hazards evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, Dal; Villaseñor, Antonio; Benz, Harley

1999-01-01

The Cascadia subduction zone is extremely complex in the western Washington region, involving local deformation of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and complicated block structures in the crust. It has been postulated that the Cascadia subduction zone could be the source for a large thrust earthquake, possibly as large as M9.0. Large intraplate earthquakes from within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Puget Sound region have accounted for most of the energy release in this century and future such large earthquakes are expected. Added to these possible hazards is clear evidence for strong crustal deformation events in the Puget Sound region near faults such as the Seattle fault, which passes through the southern Seattle metropolitan area. In order to understand the nature of these individual earthquake sources and their possible interrelationship, we have conducted an extensive seismotectonic study of the region. We have employed P-wave velocity models developed using local earthquake tomography as a key tool in this research. Other information utilized includes geological, paleoseismic, gravity, magnetic, magnetotelluric, deformation, seismicity, focal mechanism and geodetic data. Neotectonic concepts were tested and augmented through use of anelastic (creep) deformation models based on thin-plate, finite-element techniques developed by Peter Bird, UCLA. These programs model anelastic strain rate, stress, and velocity fields for given rheological parameters, variable crust and lithosphere thicknesses, heat flow, and elevation. Known faults in western Washington and the main Cascadia subduction thrust were incorporated in the modeling process. Significant results from the velocity models include delineation of a previously studied arch in the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. The axis of the arch is oriented in the direction of current subduction and asymmetrically deformed due to the effects of a northern buttress mapped in the velocity models. This

Inter-plate aseismic slip on the subducting plate boundaries estimated from repeating earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, T.

2015-12-01

Sequences of repeating earthquakes are caused by repeating slips of small patches surrounded by aseismic slip areas at plate boundary zones. Recently, they have been detected in many regions. In this study, I detected repeating earthquakes which occurred in Japan and the world by using seismograms observed in the Japanese seismic network, and investigated the space-time characteristics of inter-plate aseismic slip on the subducting plate boundaries. To extract repeating earthquakes, I calculate cross-correlation coefficients of band-pass filtering seismograms at each station following Igarashi [2010]. I used two data-set based on USGS catalog for about 25 years from May 1990 and JMA catalog for about 13 years from January 2002. As a result, I found many sequences of repeating earthquakes in the subducting plate boundaries of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java and Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka-Aleutian subduction zones. By applying the scaling relations among a seismic moment, recurrence interval and slip proposed by Nadeau and Johnson [1998], they indicate the space-time changes of inter-plate aseismic slips. Pairs of repeating earthquakes with the longest time interval occurred in the Solomon Islands area and the recurrence interval was about 18.5 years. The estimated slip-rate is about 46 mm/year, which correspond to about half of the relative plate motion in this area. Several sequences with fast slip-rates correspond to the post-seismic slips after the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (M9.0), the 2006 Kuril earthquake (M8.3), the 2007 southern Sumatra earthquake (M8.5), and the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (M9.0). The database of global repeating earthquakes enables the comparison of the inter-plate aseismic slips of various plate boundary zones of the world. I believe that I am likely to detect more sequences by extending analysis periods in the area where they were not found in this analysis.

Tsunami history of an Oregon coastal lake reveals a 4600 yr record of great earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelsey, H.M.; Nelson, A.R.; Hemphill-Haley, E.; Witter, R.C.

2005-01-01

Bradley Lake, on the southern Oregon coastal plain, records local tsunamis and seismic shaking on the Cascadia subduction zone over the last 7000 yr. Thirteen marine incursions delivered landward-thinning sheets of sand to the lake from nearshore, beach, and dune environments to the west. Following each incursion, a slug of marine water near the bottom of the freshwater lake instigated a few-year-to-several-decade period of a brackish (??? 4??? salinity) lake. Four additional disturbances without marine incursions destabilized sideslopes and bottom sediment, producing a suspension deposit that blanketed the lake bottom. Considering the magnitude and duration of the disturbances necessary to produce Bradley Lake's marine incursions, a local tsunami generated by a great earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone is the only accountable mechanism. Extreme ocean levels must have been at least 5-8 m above sea level, and the cumulative duration of each marine incursion must have been at least 10 min. Disturbances without marine incursions require seismic shaking as well. Over the 4600 yr period when Bradley Lake was an optimum tsunami recorder, tsunamis from Cascadia plate-boundary earthquakes came in clusters. Between 4600 and 2800 cal yr B.P., tsunamis occurred at the average frequency of ??? 3-4 every 1000 yr. Then, starting ???2800 cal yr B.P., there was a 930-1260 yr interval with no tsunamis. That gap was followed by a ???1000 yr period with 4 tsunamis. In the last millennium, a 670-750 yr gap preceded the A.D. 1700 earthquake and tsunami. The A.D. 1700 earthquake may be the first of a new cluster of plate-boundary earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis. Local tsunamis entered Bradley Lake an average of every 390 yr, whereas the portion of the Cascadia plate boundary that underlies Bradley Lake ruptured in a great earthquake less frequently, about once every 500 yr. Therefore, the entire length of the subduction zone does not rupture in every earthquake, and Bradley

Mapping apparent stress and energy radiation over fault zones of major earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.

2002-01-01

Using published slip models for five major earthquakes, 1979 Imperial Valley, 1989 Loma Prieta, 1992 Landers, 1994 Northridge, and 1995 Kobe, we produce maps of apparent stress and radiated seismic energy over their fault surfaces. The slip models, obtained by inverting seismic and geodetic data, entail the division of the fault surfaces into many subfaults for which the time histories of seismic slip are determined. To estimate the seismic energy radiated by each subfault, we measure the near-fault seismic-energy flux from the time-dependent slip there and then multiply by a function of rupture velocity to obtain the corresponding energy that propagates into the far-field. This function, the ratio of far-field to near-fault energy, is typically less than 1/3, inasmuch as most of the near-fault energy remains near the fault and is associated with permanent earthquake deformation. Adding the energy contributions from all of the subfaults yields an estimate of the total seismic energy, which can be compared with independent energy estimates based on seismic-energy flux measured in the far-field, often at teleseismic distances. Estimates of seismic energy based on slip models are robust, in that different models, for a given earthquake, yield energy estimates that are in close agreement. Moreover, the slip-model estimates of energy are generally in good accord with independent estimates by others, based on regional or teleseismic data. Apparent stress is estimated for each subfault by dividing the corresponding seismic moment into the radiated energy. Distributions of apparent stress over an earthquake fault zone show considerable heterogeneity, with peak values that are typically about double the whole-earthquake values (based on the ratio of seismic energy to seismic moment). The range of apparent stresses estimated for subfaults of the events studied here is similar to the range of apparent stresses for earthquakes in continental settings, with peak values of about

History of late Holocene earthquakes at the Willow Creek site on the Nephi segment, Wasatch fault zone, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crone, Anthony J.; Personius, Stephen F.; Duross, Christopher; Machette, Michael N.; Mahan, Shannon

2014-01-01

This 43-page report presents new data from the Willow Creek site that provides well-defined and narrow bounds on the times of the three youngest earthquakes on the southern strand of the Nephi segment, Wasatch Fault zone, and refines the time of the youngest earthquake to about 200 years ago. This is the youngest surface rupture on the entire Wasatch fault zone, which occurred about a century or less before European settles arrived in Utah. Two trenches at the Willow Creek site exposed three scarp-derived colluvial wedges that are evidence of three paleoearthquakes. OxCal modeling of ages from Willow Creek indicate that paleoearthquake WC1 occurred at 0.2 ± 0.1 ka, WC2 occurred at 1.2 ± 0.1 ka, and WC3 occurred at 1.9 ± 0.6 ka. Stratigraphic constraints on the time of paleoearthquake WC4 are extremely poor, so OxCal modeling only yields a broadly constrained age of 4.7 ± 1.8 ka. Results from the Willow Creek site significantly refine the times of late Holocene earthquakes on the Southern strand of the Nephi segment, and this result, when combined with a reanalysis of the stratigraphic and chronologic information from previous investigations at North Creek and Red Canyon, yield a stronger basis of correlating individual earthquakes between all three sites.

Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Gavin P.; Herman, Matthew W.; Barnhart, William D.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S.; Samsonov, Sergey

2014-01-01

The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ~8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March–April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

PubMed

Hayes, Gavin P; Herman, Matthew W; Barnhart, William D; Furlong, Kevin P; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S; Samsonov, Sergey

2014-08-21

The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ∼8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

Seismological investigation of earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone and the northeastern extent of the New Madrid seismic zone: Final report, September 1981-December 1986

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herrmann, R.B.; Taylor, K.; Nguyen, B.

1988-07-01

Earthquake activity in the Central Mississippi Valley has been monitored by an eight station seismograph network in the Wabash River Valley of southeastern Illinois and by a six station seismograph network in the New Madrid seismic zone. This network is a major component of a larger network in the region, jointly sponsored by the NRC, USGS, universities and states. During the time period of the contract, October 1981 through December 1986, 1206 earthquakes were located in the Central Mississippi Valley, of which 808 were in the New Madrid, Missouri area. Significant earthquakes studied in detail occurred in northeastern Ohio onmore » January 31, 1986 and in southeastern Illinois on June 10, 1987. Focal mechanisms have been calculated for the 10 June 1987 southern Illinois earthquake using both P-wave first motions and long-period surface-wave spectral amplitude data. The long-period surface-wave and strong ground motion accelerogram recordings of the January 3, 1986, northeastern Ohio earthquake were used to estimate the focal mechanism and source time function of the source.reverse arrow« less

Long-Term Seismic Quiescences and Great Earthquakes in and Around the Japan Subduction Zone Between 1975 and 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsumata, Kei

2017-06-01

An earthquake catalog created by the International Seismological Center (ISC) was analyzed, including 3898 earthquakes located in and around Japan between January 1964 and June 2012 shallower than 60 km with the body wave magnitude of 5.0 or larger. Clustered events such as earthquake swarms and aftershocks were removed from the ISC catalog by using a stochastic declustering method based on Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. A detailed analysis of the earthquake catalog using a simple scanning technique (ZMAP) shows that the long-term seismic quiescences lasting more than 9 years were recognized ten times along the subduction zone in and around Japan. The three seismic quiescences among them were followed by three great earthquakes: the 1994 Hokkaido-toho-oki earthquake ( M w 8.3), the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake ( M w 8.3), and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake ( M w 9.0). The remaining seven seismic quiescences were followed by no earthquake with the seismic moment M 0 ≥ 3.0 × 1021 Nm ( M w 8.25), which are candidates of the false alarm. The 2006 Kurile Islands earthquake ( M w 8.3) was not preceded by the significant seismic quiescence, which is a case of the surprise occurrence. As a result, when limited to earthquakes with the seismic moment of M 0 ≥ 3.0 × 1021 Nm, four earthquakes occurred between 1976 and 2012 in and around Japan, and three of them were preceded by the long-term seismic quiescence lasting more than 9 years.

Structure of the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesicek, Jeremy Dale

We have conducted studies of the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone using newly available teleseismic data resulting from the aftershock sequences of the 2004, 2005, and 2007 great earthquakes that occurred offshore of the island of Sumatra. In order to better exploit the new data, existing methodologies have been adapted and advanced in several ways to obtain results at a level of precision not previously possible from teleseismic data. Seismic tomography studies of the mantle were conducted using an improved iterative technique that accounts for fine-scale three-dimensional (3-D) velocity variations inside the study region and coarser global velocity variations outside the region. More precise earthquake locations were determined using a double-difference technique that has been extended to teleseismic distances using spherical ray tracing through the nested 3-D regional-global velocity models. Earthquake relocation was included in the iterative tomography scheme and was found to significantly enhance the recovery of slab velocity anomalies. Finally, because crustal structure is poorly constrained by the teleseismic data, 3-D density modeling of the crust was conducted using newly available satellite gravity data and a spherical prism gravity algorithm. The results of these studies better constrain the structure of the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone, including the geometry of the mantle slab, position of the megathrust, and structural features of the downgoing plate. Tomography results reveal continuous upper mantle slab anomalies with significant variations in dip throughout the region. Broad curvature of the fast anomalies beneath northern Sumatra, similar to curvature of the trench and volcanic arc at the surface, is interpreted as folding of the upper mantle slab. Earthquake relocations show systematic shifts of the hypocenters to the northeast and to shallower depths, each with average changes of 5 km. Reduced scatter in the relocations better constrain the

Earthquake Hazard and Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa: current status of the Global Earthquake model (GEM) initiative in the region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay; Midzi, Vunganai; Ateba, Bekoa; Mulabisana, Thifhelimbilu; Marimira, Kwangwari; Hlatywayo, Dumisani J.; Akpan, Ofonime; Amponsah, Paulina; Georges, Tuluka M.; Durrheim, Ray

2013-04-01

Large magnitude earthquakes have been observed in Sub-Saharan Africa in the recent past, such as the Machaze event of 2006 (Mw, 7.0) in Mozambique and the 2009 Karonga earthquake (Mw 6.2) in Malawi. The December 13, 1910 earthquake (Ms = 7.3) in the Rukwa rift (Tanzania) is the largest of all instrumentally recorded events known to have occurred in East Africa. The overall earthquake hazard in the region is on the lower side compared to other earthquake prone areas in the globe. However, the risk level is high enough for it to receive attention of the African governments and the donor community. The latest earthquake hazard map for the sub-Saharan Africa was done in 1999 and updating is long overdue as several development activities in the construction industry is booming allover sub-Saharan Africa. To this effect, regional seismologists are working together under the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) framework to improve incomplete, inhomogeneous and uncertain catalogues. The working group is also contributing to the UNESCO-IGCP (SIDA) 601 project and assessing all possible sources of data for the catalogue as well as for the seismotectonic characteristics that will help to develop a reasonable hazard model in the region. In the current progress, it is noted that the region is more seismically active than we thought. This demands the coordinated effort of the regional experts to systematically compile all available information for a better output so as to mitigate earthquake risk in the sub-Saharan Africa.

PAGER-CAT: A composite earthquake catalog for calibrating global fatality models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, T.I.; Marano, K.D.; Earle, P.S.; Wald, D.J.

2009-01-01

We have described the compilation and contents of PAGER-CAT, an earthquake catalog developed principally for calibrating earthquake fatality models. It brings together information from a range of sources in a comprehensive, easy to use digital format. Earthquake source information (e.g., origin time, hypocenter, and magnitude) contained in PAGER-CAT has been used to develop an Atlas of Shake Maps of historical earthquakes (Allen et al. 2008) that can subsequently be used to estimate the population exposed to various levels of ground shaking (Wald et al. 2008). These measures will ultimately yield improved earthquake loss models employing the uniform hazard mapping methods of ShakeMap. Currently PAGER-CAT does not consistently contain indicators of landslide and liquefaction occurrence prior to 1973. In future PAGER-CAT releases we plan to better document the incidence of these secondary hazards. This information is contained in some existing global catalogs but is far from complete and often difficult to parse. Landslide and liquefaction hazards can be important factors contributing to earthquake losses (e.g., Marano et al. unpublished). Consequently, the absence of secondary hazard indicators in PAGER-CAT, particularly for events prior to 1973, could be misleading to sorne users concerned with ground-shaking-related losses. We have applied our best judgment in the selection of PAGER-CAT's preferred source parameters and earthquake effects. We acknowledge the creation of a composite catalog always requires subjective decisions, but we believe PAGER-CAT represents a significant step forward in bringing together the best available estimates of earthquake source parameters and reports of earthquake effects. All information considered in PAGER-CAT is stored as provided in its native catalog so that other users can modify PAGER preferred parameters based on their specific needs or opinions. As with all catalogs, the values of some parameters listed in PAGER-CAT are

Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, P.A.

1999-01-01

Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

Strongest Earthquake-Prone Areas in Kamchatka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzeboev, B. A.; Agayan, S. M.; Zharkikh, Yu. I.; Krasnoperov, R. I.; Barykina, Yu. V.

2018-03-01

The paper continues the series of our works on recognizing the areas prone to the strongest, strong, and significant earthquakes with the use of the Formalized Clustering And Zoning (FCAZ) intellectual clustering system. We recognized the zones prone to the probable emergence of epicenters of the strongest ( M ≥ 74/3) earthquakes on the Pacific Coast of Kamchatka. The FCAZ-zones are compared to the zones that were recognized in 1984 by the classical recognition method for Earthquake-Prone Areas (EPA) by transferring the criteria of high seismicity from the Andes mountain belt to the territory of Kamchatka. The FCAZ recognition was carried out with two-dimensional and three-dimensional objects of recognition.

Analysis of Seismotektonic Patterns in Sumatra Region Based on the Focal Mechanism of Earthquake Period 1976-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Indah, F. P.; Syafriani, S.; Andiyansyah, Z. S.

2018-04-01

Sumatra is in an active subduction zone between the indo-australian plate and the eurasian plate and is located at a fault along the sumatra fault so that sumatra is vulnerable to earthquakes. One of the ways to find out the cause of earthquake can be done by identifying the type of earthquake-causing faults based on earthquake of focal mechanism. The data used to identify the type of fault cause of earthquake is the earth tensor moment data which is sourced from global cmt period 1976-2016. The data used in this research using magnitude m ≥ 6 sr. This research uses gmt software (generic mapping tolls) to describe the form of fault. From the research result, it is found that the characteristics of fault field that formed in every region in sumatera island based on data processing and data of earthquake history of 1976-2016 period that the type of fault in sumatera fault is strike slip, fault type in mentawai fault is reverse fault (rising faults) and dip-slip, while the fault type in the subduction zone is dip-slip.

M9.1 Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Tsunami Inundation Modeling of Sequim Bay and Lopez Island, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C. J.; Cakir, R.; Walsh, T. J.; LeVeque, R. J.; Adams, L. M.; Gonzalez, F. I.

2016-12-01

The Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent coastal zone are prone to tsunami hazard triggered by a M9+ Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. In addition to the numerous tsunami deposits observed on the outer coast, there is geological evidence for nine sandy or muddy tsunami layers deposited in last 2500-year period in a tidal marsh area of Discovery Bay, Northeastern Olympic Peninsula, Washington (Williams et al., 2005, The Holocene, v. 15, no. 1). Thus, it is important to assess the potential tsunami hazard due to a future M9+ CSZ earthquake event that may impact local communities in and near Discovery Bay area . In this study, we conducted tsunami simulations using Clawpack-GeoClaw and the earthquake source scenario M9.1 CSZ, designated as "L1" (Witter et al., 2011, Oregon DOGAMI Special Paper 43). A fine-resolution (1/3 arc-second) NOAA digital elevation model (DEM) was used to provide a high resolution tsunami inundation simulation in Sequim Bay (about 5 miles west of Discovery Bay), Clallam county and Lopez Island, San Juan County. The test gauges, set around major infrastructures and properties, provided estimates of wave height, wave velocity, and wave arrival time. The results will contribute to further improving mitigation planning and emergency response efforts of the counties.

Assessment of impact of strong earthquakes to the global economy by example of Thoku event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Sergey, Baranov; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova

2016-04-01

We examine the economic consequences of strong earthquakes by example of M9 Tahoku one that occurred on March 11, 2011 close to the northeast shore of Japanese coast Honshu. This earthquake became the strongest in the whole history of the seismological observations in this part of the planet. The generated tsunami killed more than 15,700 people, damaged 332,395 buildings and 2,126 roads. The total economic loss in Japan was estimated at 309 billion. The catastrophe in Japan also impacted global economy. To estimate its impact, we used regional and global stock indexes, production indexes, stock prices of the main Japanese, European and US companies, import and export dynamics, as well as the data provided by the custom of Japan. We also demonstrated that the catastrophe substantially affected the markets and on the short run in some indicators it even exceeded the effect of the global financial crisis of 2008. The last strong earthquake occurred in Nepal (25.04.2015, M7.8) and Chile (16.09.2015, M8.3), both actualized the research of cost assessments of the overall economic impact of seismic hazard. We concluded that it is necessary to treat strong earthquakes as one very important factor that affects the world economy depending on their location. The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-06-00056A).

The 1170 and 1202 CE Dead Sea Rift earthquakes and long-term magnitude distribution of the Dead Sea Fault zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Avni, R.

2009-01-01

In combination with the historical record, paleoseismic investigations have provided a record of large earthquakes in the Dead Sea Rift that extends back over 1500 years. Analysis of macroseismic effects can help refine magnitude estimates for large historical events. In this study we consider the detailed intensity distributions for two large events, in 1170 CE and 1202 CE, as determined from careful reinterpretation of available historical accounts, using the 1927 Jericho earthquake as a guide in their interpretation. In the absence of an intensity attenuation relationship for the Dead Sea region, we use the 1927 Jericho earthquake to develop a preliminary relationship based on a modification of the relationships developed in other regions. Using this relation, we estimate M7.6 for the 1202 earthquake and M6.6 for the 1170 earthquake. The uncertainties for both estimates are large and difficult to quantify with precision. The large uncertainties illustrate the critical need to develop a regional intensity attenuation relation. We further consider the distribution of magnitudes in the historic record and show that it is consistent with a b-value distribution with a b-value of 1. Considering the entire Dead Sea Rift zone, we show that the seismic moment release rate over the past 1500 years is sufficient, within the uncertainties of the data, to account for the plate tectonic strain rate along the plate boundary. The results reveal that an earthquake of M7.8 is expected within the zone on average every 1000 years. ?? 2011 Science From Israel/LPPLtd.

Cascadia Subduction Zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.

2008-01-01

The geometry and recurrence times of large earthquakes associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) were discussed and debated at a March 28-29, 2006 Pacific Northwest workshop for the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps. The CSZ is modeled from Cape Mendocino in California to Vancouver Island in British Columbia. We include the same geometry and weighting scheme as was used in the 2002 model (Frankel and others, 2002) based on thermal constraints (Fig. 1; Fluck and others, 1997 and a reexamination by Wang et al., 2003, Fig. 11, eastern edge of intermediate shading). This scheme includes four possibilities for the lower (eastern) limit of seismic rupture: the base of elastic zone (weight 0.1), the base of transition zone (weight 0.2), the midpoint of the transition zone (weight 0.2), and a model with a long north-south segment at 123.8? W in the southern and central portions of the CSZ, with a dogleg to the northwest in the northern portion of the zone (weight 0.5). The latter model was derived from the approximate average longitude of the contour of the 30 km depth of the CSZ as modeled by Fluck et al. (1997). A global study of the maximum depth of thrust earthquakes on subduction zones by Tichelaar and Ruff (1993) indicated maximum depths of about 40 km for most of the subduction zones studied, although the Mexican subduction zone had a maximum depth of about 25 km (R. LaForge, pers. comm., 2006). The recent inversion of GPS data by McCaffrey et al. (2007) shows a significant amount of coupling (a coupling factor of 0.2-0.3) as far east as 123.8? West in some portions of the CSZ. Both of these lines of evidence lend support to the model with a north-south segment at 123.8? W.

The Effect of Earthquakes on Episodic Tremor and Slip Events on the Southern Cascadia Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sainvil, A. K.; Schmidt, D. A.; Nuyen, C.

2017-12-01

The goal of this study is to explore how slow slip events on the southern Cascadia Subduction Zone respond to nearby, offshore earthquakes by examining GPS and tremor data. At intermediate depths on the plate interface ( 40 km), transient fault slip is observed in the form of Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) events. These ETS events occur regularly (every 10 months), and have a longer duration than normal earthquakes. Researchers have been documenting slow slip events through data obtained by continuously running GPS stations in the Pacific Northwest. Some studies have proposed that pore fluid may play a role in these ETS events by lowering the effective stress on the fault. The interaction of earthquakes and ETS can provide constraints on the strength of the fault and the level of stress needed to alter ETS behavior. Earthquakes can trigger ETS events, but the connection between these events and earthquake activity is less understood. We originally hypothesized that ETS events would be affected by earthquakes in southern Cascadia, and could result in a shift in the recurrence interval of ETS events. ETS events were cataloged using GPS time series provided by PANGA, in conjunction with tremor positions, in Southern Cascadia for stations YBHB and DDSN from 1997 to 2017. We looked for evidence of change from three offshore earthquakes that occurred near the Mendocino Triple Junction with moment magnitudes of 7.2 in 2005, 6.5 in 2010, and 6.8 in 2014. Our results showed that the recurrence interval of ETS for stations YBHB and DDSN was not altered by the three earthquake events. Future is needed to explore whether this lack of interaction is explained by the non-optimal orientation of the receiver fault for the earthquake focal mechanisms.

ISC-GEM: Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009), I. Data collection from early instrumental seismological bulletins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Harris, James; Villaseñor, Antonio; Storchak, Dmitry A.; Engdahl, E. Robert; Lee, William H. K.

2015-02-01

In order to produce a new global reference earthquake catalogue based on instrumental data covering the last 100+ years of global earthquakes, we collected, digitized and processed an unprecedented amount of printed early instrumental seismological bulletins with fundamental parametric data for relocating and reassessing the magnitude of earthquakes that occurred in the period between 1904 and 1970. This effort was necessary in order to produce an earthquake catalogue with locations and magnitudes as homogeneous as possible. The parametric data obtained and processed during this work fills a large gap in electronic bulletin data availability. This new dataset complements the data publicly available in the International Seismological Centre (ISC) Bulletin starting in 1964. With respect to the amplitude-period data necessary to re-compute magnitude, we searched through the global collection of printed bulletins stored at the ISC and entered relevant station parametric data into the database. As a result, over 110,000 surface and body-wave amplitude-period pairs for re-computing standard magnitudes MS and mb were added to the ISC database. To facilitate earthquake relocation, different sources have been used to retrieve body-wave arrival times. These were entered into the database using optical character recognition methods (International Seismological Summary, 1918-1959) or manually (e.g., British Association for the Advancement of Science, 1913-1917). In total, ∼1,000,000 phase arrival times were added to the ISC database for large earthquakes that occurred in the time interval 1904-1970. The selection of earthquakes for which data was added depends on time period and magnitude: for the early years of last century (until 1917) only very large earthquakes were selected for processing (M ⩾ 7.5), whereas in the periods 1918-1959 and 1960-2009 the magnitude thresholds are 6.25 and 5.5, respectively. Such a selection was mainly dictated by limitations in time and

Systematic Detection of Remotely Triggered Seismicity in Africa Following Recent Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayorinde, A. O.; Peng, Z.; Yao, D.; Bansal, A. R.

2016-12-01

It is well known that large distant earthquakes can trigger micro-earthquakes/tectonic tremors during or immediately following their surface waves. Globally, triggered earthquakes have been mostly found in active plate boundary regions. It is not clear whether they could occur within stable intraplate regions in Africa as well as the active East African Rift Zone. In this study we conduct a systematic study of remote triggering in Africa following recent large earthquakes, including the 2004 Mw9.1 Sumatra and 2012 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquakes. In particular, the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake is the largest known strike slip earthquake and has triggered a global increase of magnitude larger than 5.5 earthquakes as well as numerous micro-earthquakes/tectonic tremors around the world. The entire Africa region was examined for possible remotely triggered seismicity using seismic data downloaded from the Incorporated Research Institutes for Seismology (IRIS) Data Management Center (DMC) and GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences. We apply a 5-Hz high-pass-filter to the continuous waveforms and visually identify high-frequency signals during and immediately after the large amplitude surface waves. Spectrograms are computed as additional tools to identify triggered seismicities and we further confirm them by statistical analysis comparing the high-frequency signals before and after the distant mainshocks. So far we have identified possible triggered seismicity in Botswana and northern Madagascar. This study could help to understand dynamic triggering in diverse tectonic settings of the African continent.

Spatial aspects of building and population exposure data and their implications for global earthquake exposure modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dell’Acqua, F.; Gamba, P.; Jaiswal, K.

2012-01-01

This paper discusses spatial aspects of the global exposure dataset and mapping needs for earthquake risk assessment. We discuss this in the context of development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model (GED4GEM), which requires compilation of a multi-scale inventory of assets at risk, for example, buildings, populations, and economic exposure. After defining the relevant spatial and geographic scales of interest, different procedures are proposed to disaggregate coarse-resolution data, to map them, and if necessary to infer missing data by using proxies. We discuss the advantages and limitations of these methodologies and detail the potentials of utilizing remote-sensing data. The latter is used especially to homogenize an existing coarser dataset and, where possible, replace it with detailed information extracted from remote sensing using the built-up indicators for different environments. Present research shows that the spatial aspects of earthquake risk computation are tightly connected with the availability of datasets of the resolution necessary for producing sufficiently detailed exposure. The global exposure database designed by the GED4GEM project is able to manage datasets and queries of multiple spatial scales.

Fluid pressure development beneath the décollement at the Nankai subduction zone: its implications for slow earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirose, T.; Kamiya, N.; Yamamoto, Y.; Heuer, V.; Inagaki, F.; Kubo, Y.

2017-12-01

Pore fluid pressure along a fault zone is very important for understanding earthquake generation processes in subduction zones. However, quantitative constraints on the pore pressure are quite limited. Here we report two estimates of the pore pressure developed within the underthrust sediments in the Nankai Trough off Cape Muroto, Japan, using the shipboard data obtained during IODP Expedition 370 (Heuer et al., 2017). First estimates are based on the depth trend of porosity data in the lower Shikoku Basin (LSB) facies, in which the décollement zone has propagated. Porosities in the LSB facies generally decrease with depth, but turn to increase by 5-7% below the décollement zone at 760 mbsf. Deeper than 830 mbsf, porosities resume a general compaction trend. By applying the method followed by Screaton et al. (2002) in which the downward porosity-increase is reflected by an excess pore pressure, we estimated the highest excess pore pressure of 4.2 MPa (λ* = 0.4: a ratio of excess pore pressure to effective overburden stress) at 1020 mbsf within the underthrust sediments. Another estimate is based on the analysis of upwelling drilling-mud flow from the borehole, which is a direct evidence the development of overpressure. We assumed that the borehole penetrated a disc-shaped high pore pressure zone with 10 m thickness and the steady-state flow. Then the pore pressure for a given radius of the disc-shaped zone, which is necessary for explaining the observed flow rate, was calculated using Darcy's law. The calculation yields that the pore pressure exceeded by 2-4 MPa above hydrostatic in case of the 10-13 m2 permeability and the 100-1000 m radius of the disc-shaped zone. Our analysis indicates a significant development of excess pore pressure beneath the décollement zone, most likely at the depth of 1020 mbsf where the highest overpressure was estimated from the downhole porosity trend and also an anomaly in relative hydrocarbon gas concentrations. Friction

Remotely triggered earthquakes following moderate main shocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

2007-01-01

Since 1992, remotely triggered earthquakes have been identified following large (M > 7) earthquakes in California as well as in other regions. These events, which occur at much greater distances than classic aftershocks, occur predominantly in active geothermal or volcanic regions, leading to theories that the earthquakes are triggered when passing seismic waves cause disruptions in magmatic or other fluid systems. In this paper, I focus on observations of remotely triggered earthquakes following moderate main shocks in diverse tectonic settings. I summarize evidence that remotely triggered earthquakes occur commonly in mid-continent and collisional zones. This evidence is derived from analysis of both historic earthquake sequences and from instrumentally recorded M5-6 earthquakes in eastern Canada. The latter analysis suggests that, while remotely triggered earthquakes do not occur pervasively following moderate earthquakes in eastern North America, a low level of triggering often does occur at distances beyond conventional aftershock zones. The inferred triggered events occur at the distances at which SmS waves are known to significantly increase ground motions. A similar result was found for 28 recent M5.3-7.1 earthquakes in California. In California, seismicity is found to increase on average to a distance of at least 200 km following moderate main shocks. This supports the conclusion that, even at distances of ???100 km, dynamic stress changes control the occurrence of triggered events. There are two explanations that can account for the occurrence of remotely triggered earthquakes in intraplate settings: (1) they occur at local zones of weakness, or (2) they occur in zones of local stress concentration. ?? 2007 The Geological Society of America.

Loading Rate Variations Along a Midcrustal Shear Zone Preceding the Mw6.0 Earthquake of 24 August 2016 in Central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuan, A.; Sugan, M.; Chiaraluce, L.; Di Stefano, R.

2017-12-01

To identify greater detail in the seismicity pattern preceding the 24 August 2016 Mw6.0 earthquake in Central Italy, we apply waveform matching using 1,028 events as templates. In the 8 months before the mainshock, we find 2,000 additional earthquakes mostly located along a subhorizontal shear zone (SZ) bounding at depth the extensional fault system. Asynchrony is observed in the occurrence of events nucleating along the SZ compared to the ones on fault portions embedded in the shallower upper crust, with the former anticipating the latter. Within the SZ, we also observe along-strike seismic migration episodes with earthquakes pointing toward the Mw6.0 mainshock nucleation zone. These episodes are followed by an apparent quiescence within the main fault area. We suggest that the variations in the seismic activity along the SZ represent the brittle signature of the tectonic loading process enabling portions of the overlaying normal faults to become unlocked.

Volcano-earthquake interaction at Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, Thomas R.; Amelung, Falk

2006-05-01

The activity at Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii, is characterized by eruptive fissures that propagate into the Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) or into the Northeast Rift Zone (NERZ) and by large earthquakes at the basal decollement fault. In this paper we examine the historic eruption and earthquake catalogues, and we test the hypothesis that the events are interconnected in time and space. Earthquakes in the Kaoiki area occur in sequence with eruptions from the NERZ, and earthquakes in the Kona and Hilea areas occur in sequence with eruptions from the SWRZ. Using three-dimensional numerical models, we demonstrate that elastic stress transfer can explain the observed volcano-earthquake interaction. We examine stress changes due to typical intrusions and earthquakes. We find that intrusions change the Coulomb failure stress along the decollement fault so that NERZ intrusions encourage Kaoiki earthquakes and SWRZ intrusions encourage Kona and Hilea earthquakes. On the other hand, earthquakes decompress the magma chamber and unclamp part of the Mauna Loa rift zone, i.e., Kaoiki earthquakes encourage NERZ intrusions, whereas Kona and Hilea earthquakes encourage SWRZ intrusions. We discuss how changes of the static stress field affect the occurrence of earthquakes as well as the occurrence, location, and volume of dikes and of associated eruptions and also the lava composition and fumarolic activity.

Earthquake source nucleation process in the zone of a permanently creeping deep fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lykov, V. I.; Mostryukov, A. O.

2008-10-01

The worldwide practice of earthquake prediction, whose beginning relates to the 1970s, shows that spatial manifestations of various precursors under real seismotectonic conditions are very irregular. As noted in [Kurbanov et al., 1980], zones of bending, intersection, and branching of deep faults, where conditions are favorable for increasing tangential tectonic stresses, serve as “natural amplifiers” of precursory effects. The earthquake of September 28, 2004, occurred on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas deep fault in the area of a local bending of its plane. The fault segment about 60 km long and its vicinities are the oldest prognostic area in California. Results of observations before and after the earthquake were promptly analyzed and published in a special issue of Seismological Research Letters (2005, Vol. 76, no. 1). We have an original method enabling the monitoring of the integral rigidity of seismically active rock massifs. The integral rigidity is determined from the relative numbers of brittle and viscous failure acts during the formation of source ruptures of background earthquakes in a given massif. Fracture mechanisms are diagnosed from the steepness of the first arrival of the direct P wave. Principles underlying our method are described in [Lykov and Mostryukov, 1996, 2001, 2003]. Results of monitoring have been directly displayed at the site of the Laboratory ( http://wwwbrk.adm.yar.ru/russian/1_512/index.html ) since the mid-1990s. It seems that this information has not attracted the attention of American seismologists. This paper assesses the informativeness of the rigidity monitoring at the stage of formation of a strong earthquake source in relation to other methods.

New evidence for global tectonic zones on Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozak, Richard C.; Schaber, Gerald G.

1989-01-01

Venera 15 and 16 spacecraft images show clear evidence of major crustal disruptions on Venus which have been interpreted to indicate crustal divergence. Complementary to the divergent zones are mountain belts that border the continent-like high terrains. The requisite transcurrent motions appear to be manifested as diffuse shear zones. The rift zones form an interconnected transpolar system which ties in with previously recognized equatorial disruption zones, suggesting a global tectonic network. Several independent lines of evidence suggest that the tectonism may be geologically young.

Integrated Geophysical Characteristics of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, M. W.; Yeck, W. L.; Nealy, J. L.; Hayes, G. P.; Barnhart, W. D.; Benz, H.; Furlong, K. P.

2015-12-01

On September 16th, 2015, an Mw 8.3 earthquake (USGS moment magnitude) ruptured offshore of central Chile, 50 km west of the city of Illapel and 200 km north of Santiago. The earthquake occurred just north of where the Juan Fernandez Ridge enters the subduction zone. In this study, we integrate multiple seismic and geodetic datasets, including multiple-event earthquake relocations; moment tensors of the Illapel mainshock, aftershocks, and prior regional seismicity; finite fault models (FFMs) of the mainshock rupture; subduction zone geometry; Coulomb stress transfer calculations; and co-seismic GPS offsets and InSAR images. These datasets allow us to (a) assess the context of the Illapel earthquake sequence with respect to historical seismicity in central Chile; (b) constrain the relationship between subduction geometry and the kinematic characteristics of the earthquake sequence; and (c) understand the distribution of aftershocks with respect to the rupture zone. Double source W-phase moment tensor analysis indicates the Illapel mainshock rupture began as a smaller Mw ~7.2 thrusting event before growing into a great-sized Mw 8.3 earthquake. Relocated aftershock seismicity is concentrated around the main region of slip, and few aftershocks occur on the megathrust shallower than ~15 km, despite the FFM indicating slip near the trench. This distribution is consistent with the aftershock behavior following the 2010 Maule and 2014 Iquique earthquakes: aftershocks primarily surround the rupture zones and are largely absent from regions of greatest slip. However, in contrast to the recent 2014 Iquique and 2010 Maule events, which ruptured in regions of the Chilean subduction zone that had not had large events in over a century, this earthquake occurred in a section of the subduction zone that hosted a large earthquake as recently as 1943, as well as earlier significant events in 1880 and 1822. At this section of the subduction zone, in addition to the impinging Juan

Continuous borehole strain in the San Andreas fault zone before, during, and after the 28 June 1992, MW 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnston, M.J.S.; Linde, A.T.; Agnew, D.C.

1994-01-01

High-precision strain was observed with a borehole dilational strainmeter in the Devil's Punchbowl during the 11:58 UT 28 June 1992 MW 7.3 Landers earthquake and the large Big Bear aftershock (MW 6.3). The strainmeter is installed at a depth of 176 m in the fault zone approximately midway between the surface traces of the San Andreas and Punchbowl faults and is about 100 km from the 85-km-long Landers rupture. We have questioned whether unusual amplified strains indicating precursive slip or high fault compliance occurred on the faults ruptured by the Landers earthquake, or in the San Andreas fault zone before and during the earthquake, whether static offsets for both the Landers and Big Bear earthquakes agree with expectation from geodetic and seismologic models of the ruptures and with observations from a nearby two-color geodimeter network, and whether postseismic behavior indicated continued slip on the Landers rupture or local triggered slip on the San Andreas. We show that the strain observed during the earthquake at this instrument shows no apparent amplification effects. There are no indications of precursive strain in these strain data due to either local slip on the San Andreas or precursive slip on the eventual Landers rupture. The observations are generally consistent with models of the earthquake in which fault geometry and slip have the same form as that determined by either inversion of the seismic data or inversion of geodetically determined ground displacements produced by the earthquake. Finally, there are some indications of minor postseismic behavior, particularly during the month following the earthquake.

Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.

2016-12-01

The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration

Polarization anisotropy for monitoring seismogenic and volcanic zones- application to Mount Fuji at the time of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saade, Maria; Montagner, Jean-Paul; Araragi, Kohtaro; Roux, Philippe; Brenguier, Florent

2017-04-01

In active regions (seismogenic and volcanic zones), the polarization of surface waves is mainly related to seismic anisotropy. It can be derived by using seismic interferometry. We use continuous data recorded in the area around Mount Fuji, covering the year 2011 in which the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Japan (Mw=9.0) occurred. Previously, seismic velocity measurements done using cross-correlations of seismic noise, revealed that the Tohoku-Oki earthquake also affected the velocity structure of volcanic zones such as the Mount Fuji area (Brenguier et al. 2014). In fact, seismic velocity dropped by 0.1% in the shallow depth (<10km) underneath the area of Mount Fuji due to the high sensitivity of the volcanic crust and the presence of pressurized fluids in the volcanic fissures. Results of this study show that the orientation of seismic anisotropy has significantly changed at the time of the earthquake inducing strong and rapid deviations of the horizontal polarization of surface waves. These changes might be due to a change in the alignment of cracks when subject to a co-seismic stress perturbation.

Slow slip events and seismic tremor at circum-Pacific subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Susan Y.; Rokosky, Juliana M.

2007-09-01

It has been known for a long time that slip accompanying earthquakes accounts for only a fraction of plate tectonic displacements. However, only recently has a fuller spectrum of strain release processes, including normal, slow, and silent earthquakes (or slow slip events) and continuous and episodic slip, been observed and generated by numerical simulations of the earthquake cycle. Despite a profusion of observations and modeling studies the physical mechanism of slow slip events remains elusive. The concurrence of seismic tremor with slow slip episodes in Cascadia and southwestern Japan provides insight into the process of slow slip. A perceived similarity between subduction zone and volcanic tremor has led to suggestions that slow slip involves fluid migration on or near the plate interface. Alternatively, evidence is accumulating to support the notion that tremor results from shear failure during slow slip. Global observations of the location, spatial extent, magnitude, duration, slip rate, and periodicity of these aseismic slip transients indicate significant variation that may be exploited to better understand their generation. Most slow slip events occur just downdip of the seismogenic zone, consistent with rate- and state-dependent frictional modeling that requires unstable to stable transitional properties for slow slip generation. At a few convergent margins the occurrence of slow slip events within the seismogenic zone makes it highly likely that transitions in frictional properties exist there and are the loci of slow slip nucleation. Slow slip events perturb the surrounding stress field and may either increase or relieve stress on a fault, bringing it closer to or farther from earthquake failure, respectively. This paper presents a review of slow slip events and related seismic tremor observed at plate boundaries worldwide, with a focus on circum-Pacific subduction zones. Trends in global observations of slow slip events suggest that (1) slow slip is a

Evaluation of earthquake potential in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Yufang

I present three earthquake potential estimates for magnitude 5.4 and larger earthquakes for China. The potential is expressed as the rate density (that is, the probability per unit area, magnitude and time). The three methods employ smoothed seismicity-, geologic slip rate-, and geodetic strain rate data. I test all three estimates, and another published estimate, against earthquake data. I constructed a special earthquake catalog which combines previous catalogs covering different times. I estimated moment magnitudes for some events using regression relationships that are derived in this study. I used the special catalog to construct the smoothed seismicity model and to test all models retrospectively. In all the models, I adopted a kind of Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution with modifications at higher magnitude. The assumed magnitude distribution depends on three parameters: a multiplicative " a-value," the slope or "b-value," and a "corner magnitude" marking a rapid decrease of earthquake rate with magnitude. I assumed the "b-value" to be constant for the whole study area and estimated the other parameters from regional or local geophysical data. The smoothed seismicity method assumes that the rate density is proportional to the magnitude of past earthquakes and declines as a negative power of the epicentral distance out to a few hundred kilometers. I derived the upper magnitude limit from the special catalog, and estimated local "a-values" from smoothed seismicity. I have begun a "prospective" test, and earthquakes since the beginning of 2000 are quite compatible with the model. For the geologic estimations, I adopted the seismic source zones that are used in the published Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) model. The zones are divided according to geological, geodetic and seismicity data. Corner magnitudes are estimated from fault length, while fault slip rates and an assumed locking depth determine earthquake rates. The geological model

The Key Role of Eyewitnesses in Rapid Impact Assessment of Global Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Etivant, C.; Frobert, L.; Godey, S.

2014-12-01

Uncertainties in rapid impact assessments of global earthquakes are intrinsically large because they rely on 3 main elements (ground motion prediction models, building stock inventory and related vulnerability) which values and/or spatial variations are poorly constrained. Furthermore, variations of hypocentral location and magnitude within their respective uncertainty domain can lead to significantly different shaking level for centers of population and change the scope of the disaster. We present the strategy and methods implemented at the Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) to rapidly collect in-situ observations on earthquake effects from eyewitnesses for reducing uncertainties of rapid earthquake impact assessment. It comprises crowdsourced information (online questionnaires, pics) as well as information derived from real time analysis of web traffic (flashourcing technique), and more recently deployment of QCN (Quake Catcher Network) low cost sensors. We underline the importance of merging results of different methods to improve performances and reliability of collected data.We try to better understand and respond to public demands and expectations after earthquakes through improved information services and diversification of information tools (social networks, smartphone app., browsers adds-on…), which, in turn, drive more eyewitnesses to our services and improve data collection. We will notably present our LastQuake Twitter feed (Quakebot) and smartphone applications (IOs and android) which only report earthquakes that matter for the public and authorities, i.e. felt and damaging earthquakes identified thanks to citizen generated information.

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed timemore » using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.« less

Recognition of earthquake-related damage in archaeological sites: Examples from the Dead Sea fault zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marco, Shmuel

2008-06-01

Archaeological structures that exhibit seismogenic damage expand our knowledge of temporal and spatial distribution of earthquakes, afford independent examination of historical accounts, provide information on local earthquake intensities and enable the delineation of macroseismic zones. They also illustrate what might happen in future earthquakes. In order to recover this information, we should be able to distinguish earthquake damage from anthropogenic damage and from other natural processes of wear and tear. The present paper reviews several types of damage that can be attributed with high certainty to earthquakes and discusses associated caveats. In the rare cases, where faults intersect with archaeological sites, offset structures enable precise determination of sense and size of slip, and constrain its time. Among the characteristic off-fault damage types, I consider horizontal shifting of large building blocks, downward sliding of one or several blocks from masonry arches, collapse of heavy, stably-built walls, chipping of corners of building blocks, and aligned falling of walls and columns. Other damage features are less conclusive and require additional evidence, e.g., fractures that cut across several structures, leaning walls and columns, warps and bulges in walls. Circumstantial evidence for catastrophic earthquake-related destruction includes contemporaneous damage in many sites in the same area, absence of weapons or other anthropogenic damage, stratigraphic data on collapse of walls and ceilings onto floors and other living horizons and burial of valuable artifacts, as well as associated geological palaeoseismic phenomena such as liquefaction, land- and rock-slides, and fault ruptures. Additional support may be found in reliable historical accounts. Special care must be taken in order to avoid circular reasoning by maintaining the independence of data acquisition methods.

Facilitating open global data use in earthquake source modelling to improve geodetic and seismological approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Steinberg, Andreas; Isken, Marius; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes

2017-04-01

In the last few years impressive achievements have been made in improving inferences about earthquake sources by using InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) data. Several factors aided these developments. The open data basis of earthquake observations has expanded vastly with the two powerful Sentinel-1 SAR sensors up in space. Increasing computer power allows processing of large data sets for more detailed source models. Moreover, data inversion approaches for earthquake source inferences are becoming more advanced. By now data error propagation is widely implemented and the estimation of model uncertainties is a regular feature of reported optimum earthquake source models. Also, more regularly InSAR-derived surface displacements and seismological waveforms are combined, which requires finite rupture models instead of point-source approximations and layered medium models instead of homogeneous half-spaces. In other words the disciplinary differences in geodetic and seismological earthquake source modelling shrink towards common source-medium descriptions and a source near-field/far-field data point of view. We explore and facilitate the combination of InSAR-derived near-field static surface displacement maps and dynamic far-field seismological waveform data for global earthquake source inferences. We join in the community efforts with the particular goal to improve crustal earthquake source inferences in generally not well instrumented areas, where often only the global backbone observations of earthquakes are available provided by seismological broadband sensor networks and, since recently, by Sentinel-1 SAR acquisitions. We present our work on modelling standards for the combination of static and dynamic surface displacements in the source's near-field and far-field, e.g. on data and prediction error estimations as well as model uncertainty estimation. Rectangular dislocations and moment-tensor point sources are exchanged by simple planar finite

Characteristics of global strong earthquakes and their implications for the present-day stress pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Ju; Weifeng, Sun; Jinhui, Luo

2017-10-01

Earthquakes occurred on the surface of the Earth contain comprehensive and abundant geodynamic connotations, and can serve as important sources for describing the present-day stress field and regime. An important advantage of the earthquake focal mechanism solution is the ability to obtain the stress pattern information at depth in the lithosphere. During the past several decades, an increasing number of focal mechanisms were available for estimating the present-day stress field and regime. In the present study, altogether 553 focal mechanism data ranging from the year 1976 to 2017 with Mw ≥ 7.0 were compiled in the Global/Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalogue, the characteristics of global strong earthquakes and the present-day stress pattern were analyzed based on these data. The majority of global strong earthquakes are located around the plate boundaries, shallow-focus, and thrust faulting (TF) regime. We grouped 518 of them into 12 regions (Boxes) based on their geographical proximity and tectonic setting. For each box, the present-day stress field and regime were obtained by formal stress inversion. The results indicated that the maximum horizontal principal stress direction was ˜ N-S-trending in western North America continent and southwestern Indonesia, ˜ NNE-SSW-trending in western Middle America and central Asia, ˜ NE-SW in southeastern South America continent and northeastern Australia, ˜ NEE-SWW-trending in western South America continent and southeastern Asia, ˜ E-W-trending in southeastern Australia, and ˜ NW-SE-trending in eastern Asia. The results can provide additional constraints to the driving forces and geodynamic models, allowing them to explain the current plate interactions and crustal tectonic complexities better.

Rupture Process During the Mw 8.1 2017 Chiapas Mexico Earthquake: Shallow Intraplate Normal Faulting by Slab Bending

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okuwaki, R.; Yagi, Y.

2017-12-01

A seismic source model for the Mw 8.1 2017 Chiapas, Mexico, earthquake was constructed by kinematic waveform inversion using globally observed teleseismic waveforms, suggesting that the earthquake was a normal-faulting event on a steeply dipping plane, with the major slip concentrated around a relatively shallow depth of 28 km. The modeled rupture evolution showed unilateral, downdip propagation northwestward from the hypocenter, and the downdip width of the main rupture was restricted to less than 30 km below the slab interface, suggesting that the downdip extensional stresses due to the slab bending were the primary cause of the earthquake. The rupture front abruptly decelerated at the northwestern end of the main rupture where it intersected the subducting Tehuantepec Fracture Zone, suggesting that the fracture zone may have inhibited further rupture propagation.

Resonant slow fault slip in subduction zones forced by climatic load stress.

PubMed

Lowry, Anthony R

2006-08-17

Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at subduction plate boundaries often record fault movements similar to earthquakes but much slower, occurring over timescales of approximately 1 week to approximately 1 year. These 'slow slip events' have been observed in Japan, Cascadia, Mexico, Alaska and New Zealand. The phenomenon is poorly understood, but several observations hint at the processes underlying slow slip. Although slip itself is silent, seismic instruments often record coincident low-amplitude tremor in a narrow (1-5 cycles per second) frequency range. Also, modelling of GPS data and estimates of tremor location indicate that slip focuses near the transition from unstable ('stick-slip') to stable friction at the deep limit of the earthquake-producing seismogenic zone. Perhaps most intriguingly, slow slip is periodic at several locations, with recurrence varying from 6 to 18 months depending on which subduction zone (or even segment) is examined. Here I show that such periodic slow fault slip may be a resonant response to climate-driven stress perturbations. Fault slip resonance helps to explain why slip events are periodic, why periods differ from place to place, and why slip focuses near the base of the seismogenic zone. Resonant slip should initiate within the rupture zone of future great earthquakes, suggesting that slow slip may illuminate fault properties that control earthquake slip.

Coulomb Stress Change and Seismic Hazard of Rift Zones in Southern Tibet after the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal Earthquake and Its Mw7.3 Aftershock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Z.; Zha, X.; Lu, Z.

2015-12-01

In southern Tibet (30~34N, 80~95E), many north-trending rifts, such as Yadong-Gulu and Lunggar rifts, are characterized by internally drained graben or half-graben basins bounded by active normal faults. Some developed rifts have become a portion of important transportation lines in Tibet, China. Since 1976, eighty-seven >Mw5.0 earthquakes have happened in the rift regions, and fifty-five events have normal faulting focal mechanisms according to the GCMT catalog. These rifts and normal faults are associated with both the EW-trending extension of the southern Tibet and the convergence between Indian and Tibet. The 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal great earthquake and its Mw7.3 aftershock occurred at the main Himalayan Thrust zone and caused tremendous damages in Kathmandu region. Those earthquakes will lead to significant viscoelastic deformation and stress changes in the southern Tibet in the future. To evaluate the seismic hazard in the active rift regions in southern Tibet, we modeled the slip distribution of the 2015 Nepal great earthquakes using the InSAR displacement field from the ALOS-2 satellite SAR data, and calculated the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) on these active normal faults in the rift zones. Because the estimated CFS depends on the geometrical parameters of receiver faults, it is necessary to get the accurate fault parameters in the rift zones. Some historical earthquakes have been studied using the field data, teleseismic data and InSAR observations, but results are in not agreement with each other. In this study, we revaluated the geometrical parameters of seismogenic faults occurred in the rift zones using some high-quality coseismic InSAR observations and teleseismic body-wave data. Finally, we will evaluate the seismic hazard in the rift zones according to the value of the estimated CFS and aftershock distribution.

The Geodetic Signature of the Earthquake Cycle at Subduction Zones: Model Constraints on the Deep Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govers, R.; Furlong, K. P.; van de Wiel, L.; Herman, M. W.; Broerse, T.

2018-03-01

Recent megathrust events in Tohoku (Japan), Maule (Chile), and Sumatra (Indonesia) were well recorded. Much has been learned about the dominant physical processes in megathrust zones: (partial) locking of the plate interface, detailed coseismic slip, relocking, afterslip, viscoelastic mantle relaxation, and interseismic loading. These and older observations show complex spatial and temporal patterns in crustal deformation and displacement, and significant differences among different margins. A key question is whether these differences reflect variations in the underlying processes, like differences in locking, or the margin geometry, or whether they are a consequence of the stage in the earthquake cycle of the margin. Quantitative models can connect these plate boundary processes to surficial and far-field observations. We use relatively simple, cyclic geodynamic models to isolate the first-order geodetic signature of the megathrust cycle. Coseismic and subsequent slip on the subduction interface is dynamically (and consistently) driven. A review of global preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic geodetic observations, and of their fit to the model predictions, indicates that similar physical processes are active at different margins. Most of the observed variability between the individual margins appears to be controlled by their different stages in the earthquake cycle. The modeling results also provide a possible explanation for observations of tensile faulting aftershocks and tensile cracking of the overriding plate, which are puzzling in the context of convergence/compression. From the inversion of our synthetic GNSS velocities we find that geodetic observations may incorrectly suggest weak locking of some margins, for example, the west Aleutian margin.

Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Bastiaanssen, Wim G. M.; Gao, Hongkai; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Senay, Gabriel B.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Guerschman, Juan P.; Keys, Patrick W.; Gordon, Line J.; Savenije, Hubert H. G.

2016-04-01

This study presents an "Earth observation-based" method for estimating root zone storage capacity - a critical, yet uncertain parameter in hydrological and land surface modelling. By assuming that vegetation optimises its root zone storage capacity to bridge critical dry periods, we were able to use state-of-the-art satellite-based evaporation data computed with independent energy balance equations to derive gridded root zone storage capacity at global scale. This approach does not require soil or vegetation information, is model independent, and is in principle scale independent. In contrast to a traditional look-up table approach, our method captures the variability in root zone storage capacity within land cover types, including in rainforests where direct measurements of root depths otherwise are scarce. Implementing the estimated root zone storage capacity in the global hydrological model STEAM (Simple Terrestrial Evaporation to Atmosphere Model) improved evaporation simulation overall, and in particular during the least evaporating months in sub-humid to humid regions with moderate to high seasonality. Our results suggest that several forest types are able to create a large storage to buffer for severe droughts (with a very long return period), in contrast to, for example, savannahs and woody savannahs (medium length return period), as well as grasslands, shrublands, and croplands (very short return period). The presented method to estimate root zone storage capacity eliminates the need for poor resolution soil and rooting depth data that form a limitation for achieving progress in the global land surface modelling community.

Bi-directional volcano-earthquake interaction at Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, T. R.; Amelung, F.

2004-12-01

At Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii, large-magnitude earthquakes occur mostly at the west flank (Kona area), at the southeast flank (Hilea area), and at the east flank (Kaoiki area). Eruptions at Mauna Loa occur mostly at the summit region and along fissures at the southwest rift zone (SWRZ), or at the northeast rift zone (NERZ). Although historic earthquakes and eruptions at these zones appear to correlate in space and time, the mechanisms and implications of an eruption-earthquake interaction was not cleared. Our analysis of available factual data reveals the highly statistical significance of eruption-earthquake pairs, with a random probability of 5-to-15 percent. We clarify this correlation with the help of elastic stress-field models, where (i) we simulate earthquakes and calculate the resulting normal stress change at volcanic active zones of Mauna Loa, and (ii) we simulate intrusions in Mauna Loa and calculate the Coulomb stress change at the active fault zones. Our models suggest that Hilea earthquakes encourage dike intrusion in the SWRZ, Kona earthquakes encourage dike intrusion at the summit and in the SWRZ, and Kaoiki earthquakes encourage dike intrusion in the NERZ. Moreover, a dike in the SWRZ encourages earthquakes in the Hilea and Kona areas. A dike in the NERZ may encourage and discourage earthquakes in the Hilea and Kaoiki areas. The modeled stress change patterns coincide remarkably with the patterns of several historic eruption-earthquake pairs, clarifying the mechanisms of bi-directional volcano-earthquake interaction for Mauna Loa. The results imply that at Mauna Loa volcanic activity influences the timing and location of earthquakes, and that earthquakes influence the timing, location and the volume of eruptions. In combination with near real-time geodetic and seismic monitoring, these findings may improve volcano-tectonic risk assessment.

Deep low-frequency earthquakes in tremor localize to the plate interface in multiple subduction zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Justin R.; Beroza, Gregory C.; Ide, Satoshi; Ohta, Kazuaki; Shelly, David R.; Schwartz, Susan Y.; Rabbel, Wolfgang; Thorwart, M.; Kao, Honn

2009-01-01

Deep tremor under Shikoku, Japan, consists primarily, and perhaps entirely, of swarms of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) that occur as shear slip on the plate interface. Although tremor is observed at other plate boundaries, the lack of cataloged low-frequency earthquakes has precluded a similar conclusion about tremor in those locales. We use a network autocorrelation approach to detect and locate LFEs within tremor recorded at three subduction zones characterized by different thermal structures and levels of interplate seismicity: southwest Japan, northern Cascadia, and Costa Rica. In each case we find that LFEs are the primary constituent of tremor and that they locate on the deep continuation of the plate boundary. This suggests that tremor in these regions shares a common mechanism and that temperature is not the primary control on such activity.

Modeling earthquake sequences along the Manila subduction zone: Effects of three-dimensional fault geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hongyu; Liu, Yajing; Yang, Hongfeng; Ning, Jieyuan

2018-05-01

To assess the potential of catastrophic megathrust earthquakes (MW > 8) along the Manila Trench, the eastern boundary of the South China Sea, we incorporate a 3D non-planar fault geometry in the framework of rate-state friction to simulate earthquake rupture sequences along the fault segment between 15°N-19°N of northern Luzon. Our simulation results demonstrate that the first-order fault geometry heterogeneity, the transitional-segment (possibly related to the subducting Scarborough seamount chain) connecting the steeper south segment and the flatter north segment, controls earthquake rupture behaviors. The strong along-strike curvature at the transitional-segment typically leads to partial ruptures of MW 8.3 and MW 7.8 along the southern and northern segments respectively. The entire fault occasionally ruptures in MW 8.8 events when the cumulative stress in the transitional-segment is sufficiently high to overcome the geometrical inhibition. Fault shear stress evolution, represented by the S-ratio, is clearly modulated by the width of seismogenic zone (W). At a constant plate convergence rate, a larger W indicates on average lower interseismic stress loading rate and longer rupture recurrence period, and could slow down or sometimes stop ruptures that initiated from a narrower portion. Moreover, the modeled interseismic slip rate before whole-fault rupture events is comparable with the coupling state that was inferred from the interplate seismicity distribution, suggesting the Manila trench could potentially rupture in a M8+ earthquake.

The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

2011-08-01

The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

Prospects for earthquake prediction and control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, J.H.; Lee, W.H.K.; Pakiser, L.C.; Raleigh, C.B.; Wood, M.D.

1972-01-01

The San Andreas fault is viewed, according to the concepts of seafloor spreading and plate tectonics, as a transform fault that separates the Pacific and North American plates and along which relative movements of 2 to 6 cm/year have been taking place. The resulting strain can be released by creep, by earthquakes of moderate size, or (as near San Francisco and Los Angeles) by great earthquakes. Microearthquakes, as mapped by a dense seismograph network in central California, generally coincide with zones of the San Andreas fault system that are creeping. Microearthquakes are few and scattered in zones where elastic energy is being stored. Changes in the rate of strain, as recorded by tiltmeter arrays, have been observed before several earthquakes of about magnitude 4. Changes in fluid pressure may control timing of seismic activity and make it possible to control natural earthquakes by controlling variations in fluid pressure in fault zones. An experiment in earthquake control is underway at the Rangely oil field in Colorado, where the rates of fluid injection and withdrawal in experimental wells are being controlled. ?? 1972.

Evidence for Ancient Mesoamerican Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovach, R. L.; Garcia, B.

2001-12-01

Evidence for past earthquake damage at Mesoamerican ruins is often overlooked because of the invasive effects of tropical vegetation and is usually not considered as a casual factor when restoration and reconstruction of many archaeological sites are undertaken. Yet the proximity of many ruins to zones of seismic activity would argue otherwise. Clues as to the types of damage which should be soughtwere offered in September 1999 when the M = 7.5 Oaxaca earthquake struck the ruins of Monte Alban, Mexico, where archaeological renovations were underway. More than 20 structures were damaged, 5 of them seriously. Damage features noted were walls out of plumb, fractures in walls, floors, basal platforms and tableros, toppling of columns, and deformation, settling and tumbling of walls. A Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII (ground accelerations 18-34 %b) occurred at the site. Within the diffuse landward extension of the Caribbean plate boundary zone M = 7+ earthquakes occur with repeat times of hundreds of years arguing that many Maya sites were subjected to earthquakes. Damage to re-erected and reinforced stelae, walls, and buildings were witnessed at Quirigua, Guatemala, during an expedition underway when then 1976 M = 7.5 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault struck. Excavations also revealed evidence (domestic pttery vessels and skeleton of a child crushed under fallen walls) of an ancient earthquake occurring about the teim of the demise and abandonment of Quirigua in the late 9th century. Striking evidence for sudden earthquake building collapse at the end of the Mayan Classic Period ~A.D. 889 was found at Benque Viejo (Xunantunich), Belize, located 210 north of Quirigua. It is argued that a M = 7.5 to 7.9 earthquake at the end of the Maya Classic period centered in the vicinity of the Chixoy-Polochic and Motagua fault zones cound have produced the contemporaneous earthquake damage to the above sites. As a consequences this earthquake may have accelerated the

Drilling into seismogenic zones of M2.0 - M5.5 earthquakes in deep South African gold mines (DSeis)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogasawara, Hiroshi; Durrheim, Raymond; Yabe, Yasuo; Ito, Takatoshi; van Aswegen, Gerrie; Cichowicz, Artur; Onstott, Tullis; Kieft, Tom; Boettcher, Margaret; Wiemer, Stefan; Ziegler, Martin; Janssen, Christoph; Shapiro, Serge; Gupta, Harsh; Dight, Phil

2016-04-01

Several times a year, mining-induced earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or larger than 2 take place only a few tens of meters away from active workings in South African gold mines at depths of up to 3.4 km. The largest event recorded in mining regions, a M5.5 earthquake, took place near Orkney, South Africa on 5 August 2014, with the upper edge of the activated fault being only some hundred meters below the nearest mine workings (3.0 km depth). This is one of the rare events for which detailed seismological data are available, both from surface and underground seismometers and strainmeters, allowing for a detailed seismological analysis and comparison with in-situ observed data. Therefore, this earthquake calls for drilling to investigate the seismogenic zones before aftershocks diminish. Such a project will have a significantly better spatial coverage (including nuclei of ruptures, strong motion sources, asperities, and rupture edges) than drilling in seismogenic zones of natural large earthquakes and will be possible with a lower risk and at much smaller costs. In seismogenic zones in a critical state of stress, it is difficult to delineate reliably the local spatial variation in both directions and magnitudes of principal stresses (3D full stress tensor) reliably. However, we have overcome this problem. We are able to numerically model stress better than before, enabling us to orient boreholes so that the chance of stress-induced damage during stress measurement is minimized, and enabling us to measure the full 3D stress tensor successively in a hole within reasonable time even when stresses are as large as those expected in seismogenic zones. Better recovery of cores with less stress-induced damage during drilling is also feasible. These will allow us to address key scientific questions in earthquake science and associated deep biosphere activities which have remained elusive. We held a 4-day workshop sponsored by ICDP and Ritsumeikan University in October

Earthquake Clusters and Spatio-temporal Migration of earthquakes in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: a Finite Element Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Luo, G.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in a region is usually characterized by earthquake clusters and earthquake migration along its major fault zones. However, we do not fully understand why and how earthquake clusters and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes occur. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is a good example for us to investigate these problems. In this study, we construct and use a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes along major fault zones in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We calculate stress evolution and fault interactions, and explore effects of topographic loading and viscosity of middle-lower crust and upper mantle on model results. Model results show that earthquakes and fault interactions increase Coulomb stress on the neighboring faults or segments, accelerating the future earthquakes in this region. Thus, earthquakes occur sequentially in a short time, leading to regional earthquake clusters. Through long-term evolution, stresses on some seismogenic faults, which are far apart, may almost simultaneously reach the critical state of fault failure, probably also leading to regional earthquake clusters and earthquake migration. Based on our model synthetic seismic catalog and paleoseismic data, we analyze probability of earthquake migration between major faults in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find that following the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake and the 1927 M 8.0 Gulang earthquake, the next big event (M≥7) in northeastern Tibetan Plateau would be most likely to occur on the Haiyuan fault.

The May 29 2008 earthquake aftershock sequence within the South Iceland Seismic Zone: Fault locations and source parameters of aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandsdottir, B.; Parsons, M.; White, R. S.; Gudmundsson, O.; Drew, J.

2010-12-01

The mid-Atlantic plate boundary breaks up into a series of segments across Iceland. The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) is a complex transform zone where left-lateral E-W shear between the Reykjanes Peninsula Rift Zone and the Eastern Volcanic Zone is accommodated by bookshelf faulting along N-S lateral strike-slip faults. The SISZ is also a transient feature, migrating sideways in response to the southward propagation of the Eastern Volcanic Zone. Sequences of large earthquakes (M > 6) lasting from days to years and affecting most of the seismic zone have occurred repeatedly in historical time (last 1100 years), separated by intervals of relative quiescence lasting decades to more than a century. On May 29 2008, a Mw 6.1 earthquake struck the western part of the South Iceland Seismic Zone, followed within seconds by a slightly smaller event on a second fault ~5 km further west. Aftershocks, detected by a temporal array of 11 seismometers and three permanent Icelandic Meteorological Office stations were located using an automated Coalescence Microseismic Mapping technique. The epicenters delineate two major and several smaller N-S faults as well as an E-W zone of activity stretching further west into the Reykjanes Peninsula Rift Zone. Fault plane solutions show both right lateral and oblique strike slip mechanisms along the two major N-S faults. The aftershocks deepen from 3-5 km in the north to 8-9 km in the south, suggesting that the main faults dip southwards. The faulting is interpreted to be driven by the local stress due to transform motion between two parallel segments of the divergent plate boundary crossing Iceland.

Deep crustal earthquakes associated with continental rifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doser, Diane I.; Yarwood, Dennis R.

1994-01-01

Deep (> 20 km) crustal earthquakes have occurred within or along the margins of at least four continental rift zones. The largest of these deep crustal earthquakes ( M ⩾ 5.0) have strike-slip or oblique-slip mechanisms with T-axes oriented similarly to those associated with shallow normal faulting within the rift zones. The majority of deep crustal earthquakes occur along the rift margins in regions that have cooler, thicker crust. Several deep crustal events, however, occur in regions of high heat flow. These regions also appear to be regions of high strain, a factor that could account for the observed depths. We believe the deep crustal earthquakes represent either the relative motion of rift zones with respect to adjacent stable regions or the propagation of rifting into stable regions.

Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2016-03-01

Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

Magnetotelluric Studies of Fault Zones Surrounding the 2016 Pawnee, Oklahoma Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, R. L.; Key, K.; Atekwana, E. A.

2016-12-01

Since 2008, there has been a dramatic increase in earthquake activity in the central United States in association with major oil and gas operations. Oklahoma is now considered one the most seismically active states. Although seismic networks are able to detect activity and map its locus, they are unable to image the distribution of fluids in the fault responsible for triggering seismicity. Electrical geophysical methods are ideally suited to image fluid bearing faults since the injected waste-waters are highly saline and hence have a high electrical conductivity. To date, no study has imaged the fluids in the faults in Oklahoma and made a direct link to the seismicity. The 2016 M5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma earthquake provides an unprecedented opportunity for scientists to provide that link. Several injection wells are located within a 20 km radius of the epicenter; and studies have suggested that injection of fluids in high-volume wells can trigger earthquakes as far away as 30 km. During late October to early November, 2016, we are collecting magnetotelluric (MT) data with the aim of constraining the distribution of fluids in the fault zone. The MT technique uses naturally occurring electric and magnetic fields measured at Earth's surface to measure conductivity structure. We plan to carry out a series of short two-dimensional (2D) profiles of wideband MT acquisition located through areas where the fault recently ruptured and seismic activity is concentrated and also across the faults in the vicinity that did not rupture. The integration of our results and ongoing seismic studies will lead to a better understanding of the links between fluid injection and seismicity.

A statistical study of global ionospheric map total electron content changes prior to occurrences of M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes during 2000-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, J. N.; Huard, J.; Masci, F.

2017-02-01

There are many reports on the occurrence of anomalous changes in the ionosphere prior to large earthquakes. However, whether or not these changes are reliable precursors that could be useful for earthquake prediction is controversial within the scientific community. To test a possible statistical relationship between ionospheric disturbances and earthquakes, we compare changes in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere with occurrences of M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes globally for 2000-2014. We use TEC data from the global ionosphere map (GIM) and an earthquake list declustered for aftershocks. For each earthquake, we look for anomalous changes in GIM-TEC within 2.5° latitude and 5.0° longitude of the earthquake location (the spatial resolution of GIM-TEC). Our analysis has not found any statistically significant changes in GIM-TEC prior to earthquakes. Thus, we have found no evidence that would suggest that monitoring changes in GIM-TEC might be useful for predicting earthquakes.

Unexpected earthquake hazard revealed by Holocene rupture on the Kenchreai Fault (central Greece): Implications for weak sub-fault shear zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copley, Alex; Grützner, Christoph; Howell, Andy; Jackson, James; Penney, Camilla; Wimpenny, Sam

2018-03-01

High-resolution elevation models, palaeoseismic trenching, and Quaternary dating demonstrate that the Kenchreai Fault in the eastern Gulf of Corinth (Greece) has ruptured in the Holocene. Along with the adjacent Pisia and Heraion Faults (which ruptured in 1981), our results indicate the presence of closely-spaced and parallel normal faults that are simultaneously active, but at different rates. Such a configuration allows us to address one of the major questions in understanding the earthquake cycle, specifically what controls the distribution of interseismic strain accumulation? Our results imply that the interseismic loading and subsequent earthquakes on these faults are governed by weak shear zones in the underlying ductile crust. In addition, the identification of significant earthquake slip on a fault that does not dominate the late Quaternary geomorphology or vertical coastal motions in the region provides an important lesson in earthquake hazard assessment.

Bridge seismic retrofit measures considering subduction zone earthquakes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-07-01

Over the years, earthquakes have exposed the vulnerability of reinforced concrete structures under : seismic loads. The recent occurrence of highly devastating earthquakes near instrumented regions, e.g. 2010 Maule, Chile : and 2011 Tohoku, Japan, ha...

Exploring earthquake databases for the creation of magnitude-homogeneous catalogues: tools for application on a regional and global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherill, G. A.; Pagani, M.; Garcia, J.

2016-09-01

The creation of a magnitude-homogenized catalogue is often one of the most fundamental steps in seismic hazard analysis. The process of homogenizing multiple catalogues of earthquakes into a single unified catalogue typically requires careful appraisal of available bulletins, identification of common events within multiple bulletins and the development and application of empirical models to convert from each catalogue's native scale into the required target. The database of the International Seismological Center (ISC) provides the most exhaustive compilation of records from local bulletins, in addition to its reviewed global bulletin. New open-source tools are developed that can utilize this, or any other compiled database, to explore the relations between earthquake solutions provided by different recording networks, and to build and apply empirical models in order to harmonize magnitude scales for the purpose of creating magnitude-homogeneous earthquake catalogues. These tools are described and their application illustrated in two different contexts. The first is a simple application in the Sub-Saharan Africa region where the spatial coverage and magnitude scales for different local recording networks are compared, and their relation to global magnitude scales explored. In the second application the tools are used on a global scale for the purpose of creating an extended magnitude-homogeneous global earthquake catalogue. Several existing high-quality earthquake databases, such as the ISC-GEM and the ISC Reviewed Bulletins, are harmonized into moment magnitude to form a catalogue of more than 562 840 events. This extended catalogue, while not an appropriate substitute for a locally calibrated analysis, can help in studying global patterns in seismicity and hazard, and is therefore released with the accompanying software.

The 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake - a human-caused event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2013-12-01

A catalog of global human-caused earthquakes shows statistical evidence that the triggering of earthquakes by large-scale geoengineering activities depends on geological and tectonic constrains (in Klose 2013). Such geoengineering activities also include the filling of water reservoirs. This presentation illuminates mechanical and statistical aspects of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in light of the hypothesis of being NOT human-caused. However, available data suggest that the Wenchuan earthquake was triggered by the filling of the Zipungpu water reservoir 30 months prior to the mainshock. The reservoir spatially extended parallel and near to the main Beichuan fault zone in a highly stressed reverse fault regime. It is mechanically evident that reverse faults tend to be very trigger-sensitive due to mass shifts (static loads) that occur on the surface of the Earth's crust. These circumstances made a triggering of a seismic event of this magnitude at this location possible (in Klose 2008, 2012). The data show that the Wenchuan earthquake is not an outlier. From a statistical view point, the earthquake falls into the upper range of the family of reverse fault earthquakes that were caused by humans worldwide.

Internal tectonic structure of the Central American Wadati-Benioff zone based on analysis of aftershock sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Å PičáK, Aleš; Hanuš, VáClav; VaněK, JiřÃ.­; BěHounková, Marie

2007-09-01

Relocated Engdahl et al. (1998) global seismological data for 10 aftershock sequences were used to analyze the internal tectonic structure of the Central American subduction zone; the main shocks of several of these were the most destructive and often referenced earthquakes in the region (e.g., the 1970 Chiapas, 1983 Osa, 1992 Nicaragua, 1999 Quepos, 2001 El Salvador earthquakes). The spatial analysis of aftershock foci distribution was performed in a rotated Cartesian coordinate system (x, y, z) related to the Wadati-Benioff zone, and not in a standard coordinate system (ϕ, λ, h are latitude, longitude, focal depth, respectively). Available fault plane solutions were also transformed into the plane approximating the Wadati-Benioff zone. The spatial distribution of earthquakes in each aftershock sequence was modeled as either a plane fit using a least squares approximation or a volume fit with a minimum thickness rectangular box. The analysis points to a quasi-planar distribution of earthquake foci in all aftershock sequences, manifesting the appurtenance of aftershocks to fracture zones. Geometrical parameters of fracture zones (strike, dip, and dimensions) hosting individual sequences were calculated and compared with the seafloor morphology of the Cocos Plate. The smooth character of the seafloor correlates with the aftershock fracture zones oriented parallel to the trench and commonly subparallel to the subducting slab, whereas subduction of the Cocos Ridge and seamounts around the Quepos Plateau coincides with steeply dipping fracture zones. Transformed focal mechanisms are almost exclusively (>90%) of normal character.

Internal tectonic structure of the Central American Wadati-Benioff zone based on analysis of aftershock sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Špičák, Aleš; Hanuš, Václav; Vaněk, Jiří; Běhounková, Marie

2007-09-01

Relocated Engdahl et al. (1998) global seismological data for 10 aftershock sequences were used to analyze the internal tectonic structure of the Central American subduction zone; the main shocks of several of these were the most destructive and often referenced earthquakes in the region (e.g., the 1970 Chiapas, 1983 Osa, 1992 Nicaragua, 1999 Quepos, 2001 El Salvador earthquakes). The spatial analysis of aftershock foci distribution was performed in a rotated Cartesian coordinate system (x, y, z) related to the Wadati-Benioff zone, and not in a standard coordinate system ($\\varphi$, λ, h are latitude, longitude, focal depth, respectively). Available fault plane solutions were also transformed into the plane approximating the Wadati-Benioff zone. The spatial distribution of earthquakes in each aftershock sequence was modeled as either a plane fit using a least squares approximation or a volume fit with a minimum thickness rectangular box. The analysis points to a quasi-planar distribution of earthquake foci in all aftershock sequences, manifesting the appurtenance of aftershocks to fracture zones. Geometrical parameters of fracture zones (strike, dip, and dimensions) hosting individual sequences were calculated and compared with the seafloor morphology of the Cocos Plate. The smooth character of the seafloor correlates with the aftershock fracture zones oriented parallel to the trench and commonly subparallel to the subducting slab, whereas subduction of the Cocos Ridge and seamounts around the Quepos Plateau coincides with steeply dipping fracture zones. Transformed focal mechanisms are almost exclusively (>90%) of normal character.

Foreshock patterns preceding large earthquakes in the subduction zone of Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minadakis, George; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.

2016-04-01

Some of the largest earthquakes in the globe occur in the subduction zone of Chile. Therefore, it is of particular interest to investigate foreshock patterns preceding such earthquakes. Foreshocks in Chile were recognized as early as 1960. In fact, the giant (Mw9.5) earthquake of 22 May 1960, which was the largest ever instrumentally recorded, was preceded by 45 foreshocks in a time period of 33h before the mainshock, while 250 aftershocks were recorded in a 33h time period after the mainshock. Four foreshocks were bigger than magnitude 7.0, including a magnitude 7.9 on May 21 that caused severe damage in the Concepcion area. More recently, Brodsky and Lay (2014) and Bedford et al. (2015) reported on foreshock activity before the 1 April 2014 large earthquake (Mw8.2). However, 3-D foreshock patterns in space, time and size were not studied in depth so far. Since such studies require for good seismic catalogues to be available, we have investigated 3-D foreshock patterns only before the recent, very large mainshocks occurring on 27 February 2010 (Mw 8.8), 1 April 2014 (Mw8.2) and 16 September 2015 (Mw8.4). Although our analysis does not depend on a priori definition of short-term foreshocks, our interest focuses in the short-term time frame, that is in the last 5-6 months before the mainshock. The analysis of the 2014 event showed an excellent foreshock sequence consisting by an early-weak foreshock stage lasting for about 1.8 months and by a main-strong precursory foreshock stage that was evolved in the last 18 days before the mainshock. During the strong foreshock period the seismicity concentrated around the mainshock epicenter in a critical area of about 65 km mainly along the trench domain to the south of the mainshock epicenter. At the same time, the activity rate increased dramatically, the b-value dropped and the mean magnitude increased significantly, while the level of seismic energy released also increased. In view of these highly significant seismicity

Seismicity of the St. Lawrence paleorift faults overprinted by a meteorite impact crater: Implications for crustal strength based on new earthquake relocations in the Charlevoix Seismic Zone, Eastern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.; Harrington, R. M.; Liu, Y.; Lamontagne, M.; Pang, M.

2015-12-01

The Charlevoix Seismic Zone (CSZ), located along the St. Lawrence River (SLR) ~100 km downstream from Quebec City, is the most active seismic zone in eastern Canada with five historic earthquakes of M 6-7 and ~ 200 events/year reported by the Canadian National Seismograph Network. Cataloged earthquake epicenters outline two broad linear zones along the SLR with little shallow seismicity in between. Earthquakes form diffuse clusters between major dipping faults rather than concentrating on fault planes. Detailed fault geometry in the CSZ is uncertain and the effect on local seismicity of a meteorite impact structure that overprints the paleorift faults remains ambiguous. Here we relocate 1639 earthquakes occurring in the CSZ between 01/1988 - 10/2010 using the double-difference relocation method HypoDD and waveforms primarily from 7 local permanent stations. We use the layered SLR north shore velocity model from Lamontagne (1999), and travel time differences based on both catalog and cross-correlated P and S-phase picks. Of the 1639 relocated earthquakes, 1236 (75.4%) satisfied selection criteria of horizontal and vertical errors less than 2 km and 1 km respectively. Cross-sections of relocated seismicity show hypocenters along distinct active fault segments. Earthquakes located beneath the north shore of the SLR are likely correlated with the NW Gouffre fault, forming a ~10 km wide seismic zone parallel to the river, with dip angle changing to near vertical at the northern edge of the impact zone. In contrast, seismicity beneath the SLR forms a diffuse cloud within the impact structure, likely representing a highly fractured volume. It further implies that faults could be locally weak and subject to high pore-fluid pressures. Seismicity outside the impact structure defines linear structures aligning with the Charlevoix fault. Relocated events of M > 4 all locate outside the impact structure, indicating they nucleated on the NE-SW-oriented paleorift faults.

Stochastic strong ground motion simulations for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the south Aegean subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kkallas, Harris; Papazachos, Konstantinos; Boore, David; Margaris, Vasilis

2015-04-01

We have employed the stochastic finite-fault modelling approach of Motazedian and Atkinson (2005), as described by Boore (2009), for the simulation of Fourier spectra of the Intermediate-depth earthquakes of the south Aegean subduction zone. The stochastic finite-fault method is a practical tool for simulating ground motions of future earthquakes which requires region-specific source, path and site characterizations as input model parameters. For this reason we have used data from both acceleration-sensor and broadband velocity-sensor instruments from intermediate-depth earthquakes with magnitude of M 4.5-6.7 that occurred in the south Aegean subduction zone. Source mechanisms for intermediate-depth events of north Aegean subduction zone are either collected from published information or are constrained using the main faulting types from Kkallas et al. (2013). The attenuation parameters for simulations were adopted from Skarladoudis et al. (2013) and are based on regression analysis of a response spectra database. The site amplification functions for each soil class were adopted from Klimis et al., (1999), while the kappa values were constrained from the analysis of the EGELADOS network data from Ventouzi et al., (2013). The investigation of stress-drop values was based on simulations performed with the EXSIM code for several ranges of stress drop values and by comparing the results with the available Fourier spectra of intermediate-depth earthquakes. Significant differences regarding the strong-motion duration, which is determined from Husid plots (Husid, 1969), have been identified between the for-arc and along-arc stations due to the effect of the low-velocity/low-Q mantle wedge on the seismic wave propagation. In order to estimate appropriate values for the duration of P-waves, we have automatically picked P-S durations on the available seismograms. For the S-wave durations we have used the part of the seismograms starting from the S-arrivals and ending at the

Local seismicity preceding the March 14, 1979, Petatlan, Mexico Earthquake (Ms = 7.6)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Vindell; Gettrust, Joseph F.; Helsley, Charles E.; Berg, Eduard

1983-05-01

Local seismicity surrounding the epicenter of the March 14, 1979, Petatlan, Mexico earthquake was monitored by a network of portable seismographs of the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics from 6 weeks before to 4 weeks after the main shock. Prior to the main shock, the recorded local seismic activity was shallow and restricted within the continental plate above the Benioff zone. The relocated main shock hypocenter also lay above the Benioff zone, suggesting an initial failure within the continental lithosphere. Four zones can be recognized that showed relatively higher seismic activity than the background. Activity within these zones has followed a number of moderate earthquakes that occurred before or after the initial deployment of the network. Three of these moderate earthquakes were near the Mexican coastline and occurred sequentially from southeast to northwest during the three months before the Petatlan earthquake. The Petatlan event occurred along the northwestern extension of this trend. We infer a possible connection between this observed earthquake migration pattern and the subduction of a fracture zone because the 200-km segment that includes the aftershock zones of the Petatlan earthquake and the three preceding moderate earthquakes matches the intersection of the southeastern limb of the Orozco Fracture Zone and the Middle America Trench. The Petatlan earthquake source region includes the region of the last of the three near-coast seismic activities (zone A). Earthquakes of zone A migrated toward the Petatlan main shock epicenter and were separated from it by an aseismic zone about 10 km wide. We designate this group of earthquakes as the foreshocks of the Petatlan earthquake. These foreshocks occurred within the continental lithosphere and their observed characteristics are interpreted as due to the high-stress environment before the main shock. Pre-main shock seismicity of the Petatlan earthquake source region shows a good correlation with the

Structural variation along the southwestern Nankai seismogenic zone related to various earthquake phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakanishi, A.; Shimomura, N.; Kodaira, S.; Obana, K.; Takahashi, T.; Yamamoto, Y.; Sato, T.; Kashiwase, K.; Fujimori, H.; Kaneda, Y.; Mochizuki, K.; Kato, A.; Iidaka, T.; Kurashimo, E.; Shinohara, M.; Takeda, T.; Shiomi, K.

2011-12-01

In the Nankai Trough subduction seismogenic zone, the Nankai and Tonankai earthquakes had often occurred simultaneously, and caused a great event. In order to reduce a great deal of damage to coastal area from both strong ground motion and tsunami generation, it is necessary to understand rupture synchronization and segmentation of the Nankai megathrust earthquake. For a precise estimate of the rupture area of the Nankai megathrust event, it is important to know the geometry of the subducting Philippine Sea plate and deep subduction structure along the Nankai Trough. To obtain the deep subduction structure of the coseismic rupture area of the Nankai earthquake in 1946 off Shikoku area, the large-scale high-resolution wide-angle seismic study was conducted in 2009 and 2010. In this study, 201 and 200 ocean bottom seismographs were deployed off the Shikoku Island and the Kii channel respectively. A tuned airgun system (7800 cu. in.) shot every 200m along 13 profiles. Airgun shots were also recorded along an onshore seismic profile (prepared by ERI, univ. of Tokyo and NIED) prolonged from the offshore profile off the Kii Peninsula. Long-term observation was conducted for ~9 months by 21 OBSs off the Shikoku area and 20 OBSs off the Kii channel.This research is part of 'Research concerning Interaction Between the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes' funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. Structural images of the overriding plate indicate the old accreted sediments (the Cretaceous-Tertiary accretionary prism) with the velocity greater than 6km/s extend seaward from off the Shikoku to the Hyuga-nada. Moreover, the young accreted sediments become relatively thinner eastward from off the cape Ashizuri to Muroto. These structural variations might be related to the different rupture pattern of the Nankai event. Structural image of the deep low frequency earthquakes and tremors is shown by using the airgun shots recorded at onshore

Rupture behaviors of the 2010 Jiashian and 2016 Meinong Earthquakes: Implication for interaction of two asperities on the Chishan Transfer Fault Zone in SW Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, P. R.; Hung, S. H.; Chen, Y. L.; Meng, L.; Tseng, T. L.

2017-12-01

After about 45 years of seismic quiescence, southwest Taiwan was imperiled by two strong earthquakes, the 2010 Mw 6.2 Jiashian and deadly 2016 Mw 6.4 Meinong earthquakes in the last decade. The focal mechanisms and their aftershock distributions imply that both events occurred on NW-SE striking, shallow-dipping fault planes but at different depths of 21 and 16 km, respectively. Here we present the MUSIC back projection images using high-frequency P- and sP-waves recorded in the European and Australian seismic networks, the directivity analysis using global teleseismic P waves and relocated aftershocks to characterize the rupture behaviors of the two mainshocks and explore the potential connection between them. The results for the Meinong event indicate a unilateral, subhorizontal rupture propagating NW-ward 17 km and lasting for 6-7 s [Jian et al., 2017]. For the Jiashian event, the rupture initiated at a greater depth of 21 km and then propagated both NW-ward and up-dip ( 16o) on the fault plane, with a shorter rupture length of 10 km and duration of 4-5 s. The up-dip propagation is corroborated by the 3-D directivity analysis that leads to the widths of P-wave pulses increasing linearly with the directivity parameter. Moreover, relocation of aftershocks reveals that the Jiashian sequence is confined in a NW-SE elongated zone extending 15 km and 5 km shallower than the hypocenter. The Meinong aftershock sequence shows three clusters: one surrounding the mainshock hypocenter, another one distributed northwestern and deeper (>20 km) off the rupture plane beneath Tainan, and the other distant shallow-focus one (<10 km) beneath the southern Central Mountain Range. As evidenced by similar focal mechanism, rupture behaviors, as well as the spatial configuration of the mainshock rupture zones and aftershock distributions, we attribute the Jiashian and Meinong earthquakes to two asperities on a buried oblique fault that has been reactivated recently, the NW-SE striking

Implications of loading/unloading a subduction zone with a heterogeneously coupled interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, M. W.; Furlong, K. P.; Govers, R. M. A.

2017-12-01

Numerical models of subduction zones with appropriate physical properties may help understand deformation throughout great earthquake cycles, as well as associated observations such as the distribution of smaller magnitude megathrust earthquakes and surface displacements. Of particular interest are displacements near the trench, where tsunamis are generated. The patterns of co-seismic strain release in great megathrust earthquakes depend on the frictional coupling of the plate interface prior to the event. Geodetic observations during the inter-seismic stage suggest that the plates are fully locked at asperities surrounded by zones of apparent partial coupling. We simulate the accumulation (and release) of elastic strain in the subduction system using a finite element model with a relatively simple geometry and material properties. We demonstrate that inter-seismic apparent partial coupling can be dominantly explained by a distribution of completely locked asperities and zero friction elsewhere. In these models, the interface up-dip of the locked zone (< 15 km depth) accumulates large slip deficit even if its coefficient of friction is zero, as might be inferred from the scarcity of megathrust earthquakes shallower than 15 km in global earthquake catalogs. In addition, the upper plate above a low-friction shallow megathrust accumulates large displacements with little internal strain, potentially leading to large co-seismic block displacements (low displacement gradients) of the near-trench seafloor like those observed following the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake. This is also consistent with anomalously low co-seismic frictional heating of the shallow megathrust indicated by borehole heat flow measurements after the Tohoku event. Our models also yield insights into slip partitioning throughout multiple earthquake cycles. In smaller ruptures, fault slip is inhibited by nearby locked zones; in subsequent multi-segment ruptures, the rest of this slip deficit may be

Modeling the effects of source and path heterogeneity on ground motions of great earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using 3D simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delorey, Andrew; Frankel, Arthur; Liu, Pengcheng; Stephenson, William J.

2014-01-01

We ran finite‐difference earthquake simulations for great subduction zone earthquakes in Cascadia to model the effects of source and path heterogeneity for the purpose of improving strong‐motion predictions. We developed a rupture model for large subduction zone earthquakes based on a k−2 slip spectrum and scale‐dependent rise times by representing the slip distribution as the sum of normal modes of a vibrating membrane.Finite source and path effects were important in determining the distribution of strong motions through the locations of the hypocenter, subevents, and crustal structures like sedimentary basins. Some regions in Cascadia appear to be at greater risk than others during an event due to the geometry of the Cascadia fault zone relative to the coast and populated regions. The southern Oregon coast appears to have increased risk because it is closer to the locked zone of the Cascadia fault than other coastal areas and is also in the path of directivity amplification from any rupture propagating north to south in that part of the subduction zone, and the basins in the Puget Sound area are efficiently amplified by both north and south propagating ruptures off the coast of western Washington. We find that the median spectral accelerations at 5 s period from the simulations are similar to that of the Zhao et al. (2006) ground‐motion prediction equation, although our simulations predict higher amplitudes near the region of greatest slip and in the sedimentary basins, such as the Seattle basin.

The rupture process of the Manjil, Iran earthquake of 20 june 1990 and implications for intraplate strike-slip earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choy, G.L.; Zednik, J.

1997-01-01

In terms of seismically radiated energy or moment release, the earthquake of 20 January 1990 in the Manjil Basin-Alborz Mountain region of Iran is the second largest strike-slip earthquake to have occurred in an intracontinental setting in the past decade. It caused enormous loss of life and the virtual destruction of several cities. Despite a very large meizoseismal area, the identification of the causative faults has been hampered by the lack of reliable earthquake locations and conflicting field reports of surface displacement. Using broadband data from global networks of digitally recording seismographs, we analyse broadband seismic waveforms to derive characteristics of the rupture process. Complexities in waveforms generated by the earthquake indicate that the main shock consisted of a tiny precursory subevent followed in the next 20 seconds by a series of four major subevents with depths ranging from 10 to 15 km. The focal mechanisms of the major subevents, which are predominantly strike-slip, have a common nodal plane striking about 285??-295??. Based on the coincidence of this strike with the dominant tectonic fabric of the region we presume that the EW striking planes are the fault planes. The first major subevent nucleated slightly south of the initial precursor. The second subevent occurred northwest of the initial precursor. The last two subevents moved progressively southeastward of the first subevent in a direction collinear with the predominant strike of the fault planes. The offsets in the relative locations and the temporal delays of the rupture subevents indicate heterogeneous distribution of fracture strength and the involvement of multiple faults. The spatial distribution of teleseismic aftershocks, which at first appears uncorrelated with meizoseismal contours, can be decomposed into stages. The initial activity, being within and on the periphery of the rupture zone, correlates in shape and length with meizoseismal lines. In the second stage

Rise of the central Andean coast by earthquakes straddling the Moho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnick, Daniel

2016-05-01

Surface movements during the largest subduction zone earthquakes commonly drown coastlines. Yet, on geological timescales, coastlines above subduction zones uplift. Here I use a morphometric analysis combined with a numerical model of landscape evolution to estimate uplift rates along the central Andean rasa--a low-relief coastal surface bounded by a steep cliff formed by wave erosion. I find that the rasa has experienced steady uplift of 0.13 +/- 0.04 mm per year along a stretch of more than 2,000 km in length, during the Quaternary. These long-term uplift rates do not correlate with Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of interseismic movements over the decadal scale, which implies that permanent uplift is not predominantly accumulated during the interseismic period. Instead, the rate of rasa uplift correlates with slip during earthquakes straddling the crust-mantle transition, the Moho. Such deeper earthquakes with magnitude 7 to 8 that occurred between 1995 and 2012 resulted in decimetres of coastal uplift. Slip during these earthquakes is located below the locked portion of the plate interface, and therefore may translate into permanent deformation of the overlying plate, where it causes uplift of the coastline. Thus, lower parts of the plate boundary are stably segmented over hundreds to millions of years. I suggest the coastline marks the surface expression of the transition between the shallow, locked seismogenic domain and the deeper, conditionally stable domain where modest earthquakes build up topography.

Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Bastiaanssen, Wim; Gao, Hongkai; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Senay, Gabriel; van Dijk, Albert; Guerschman, Juan; Keys, Patrick; Gordon, Line; Savenije, Hubert

2016-04-01

We present an "earth observation-based" method for estimating root zone storage capacity - a critical, yet uncertain parameter in hydrological and land surface modelling. By assuming that vegetation optimises its root zone storage capacity to bridge critical dry periods, we were able to use state-of-the-art satellite-based evaporation data computed with independent energy balance equations to derive gridded root zone storage capacity at global scale. This approach does not require soil or vegetation information, is model independent, and is in principle scale-independent. In contrast to traditional look-up table approaches, our method captures the variability in root zone storage capacity within land cover type, including in rainforests where direct measurements of root depth otherwise are scarce. Implementing the estimated root zone storage capacity in the global hydrological model STEAM improved evaporation simulation overall, and in particular during the least evaporating months in sub-humid to humid regions with moderate to high seasonality. We find that evergreen forests are able to create a large storage to buffer for extreme droughts (with a return period of up to 60 years), in contrast to short vegetation and crops (which seem to adapt to a drought return period of about 2 years). The presented method to estimate root zone storage capacity eliminates the need for soils and rooting depth information, which could be a game-changer in global land surface modelling.

On the behavior of site effects in central Mexico (the Mexican volcanic belt - MVB), based on records of shallow earthquakes that occurred in the zone between 1998 and 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemente-Chavez, A.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Lermo, J.; Figueroa-Soto, A.; Valdés, C.; Montiel, M.; Chavez, O.; Arroyo, M.

2014-06-01

The Mexican volcanic belt (MVB) is a seismogenic zone that transects the central part of Mexico with an east-west orientation. The seismic risk and hazard of this seismogenic zone has not been studied in detail due to the scarcity of instrumental data as well as because seismicity in the continental regime of central Mexico is not too frequent. However, it is known that there are precedents of large earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) that have taken place in this zone. The valley of Mexico City (VM) is the sole zone, within the MVB, that has been studied in detail. Studies have mainly focused on the ground amplification during large events such as the 1985 subduction earthquake that occurred off coast of Michoacán. The purpose of this article is to analyze the behavior of site effects in the MVB zone based on records of shallow earthquakes (data not reported before) that occurred in the zone between 1998 and 2011. We present a general overview of site effects in the MVB, a classification of the stations in order to reduce the uncertainty in the data when obtaining attenuation parameters in future works, as well as some comparisons between the information presented here and that presented in previous studies. A regional evaluation of site effects and Fourier acceleration spectrum (FAS) shape was estimated based on 80 records of 22 shallow earthquakes within the MVB zone. Data of 25 stations were analyzed. Site effects were estimated by using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) methodology. The results show that seismic waves are less amplified in the northeast sites of the MVB with respect to the rest of the zone and that it is possible to classify two groups of stations: (1) stations with negligible site amplification (NSA) and (2) stations with significant site amplification (SSA). Most of the sites in the first group showed small (<3) amplifications while the second group showed amplifications ranging from 4 to 6.5 at frequencies of about 0.35, 0.75, 15 and 23

PAGER--Rapid assessment of an earthquake?s impact

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.

2010-01-01

PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world. Earthquake alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.

The Wasatch fault zone, utah-segmentation and history of Holocene earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Machette, M.N.; Personius, S.F.; Nelson, A.R.; Schwartz, D.P.; Lund, W.R.

1991-01-01

The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) forms the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range province and is the longest continuous, active normal fault (343 km) in the United States. It underlies an urban corridor of 1.6 million people (80% of Utah's population) representing the largest earthquake risk in the interior of the western United States. We have used paleoseismological data to identify 10 discrete segments of the WFZ. Five are active, medial segments with Holocene slip rates of 1-2 mm a-1, recurrence intervals of 2000-4000 years and average lengths of about 50 km. Five are less active, distal segments with mostly pre-Holocene surface ruptures, late Quaternary slip rates of 6.5 have occurred since 1860. Although the time scale of the clustering is different-130 years vs 1100 years-we consider the central Nevada-eastern California Seismic Belt to be a historic analog for movement on the WFZ during the past 1500 years. We have found no evidence that surface-rupturing events occurred on the WFZ during the past 400 years, a time period which is twice the average intracluster recurrence interval and equal to the average Holocene recurrence interval. In particular, the Brigham City segment (the northernmost medial segment) has not ruptured in the past 3600 years-a period that is about three times longer than this segment's average recurrence interval during the early and middle Holocene. Although the WFZ's seismological record is one of relative quiescence, a comparison with other historic surface-rupturing earthquakes in the region suggests that earthquakes having moment magnitudes of 7.1-7.4 (or surface-wave magnitudes of 7.5-7.7)-each associated with tens of kilometers of surface rupture and several meters of normal dip slip-have occurred about every four centuries during the Holocene and should be expected in the future. ?? 1991.

Permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity controlled by earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brodsky, E. E.; Fulton, P. M.; Xue, L.

2016-12-01

Earthquakes can increase permeability in fractured rocks. In the farfield, such permeability increases are attributed to seismic waves and can last for months after the initial earthquake. Laboratory studies suggest that unclogging of fractures by the transient flow driven by seismic waves is a viable mechanism. These dynamic permeability increases may contribute to permeability enhancement in the seismic clouds accompanying hydraulic fracking. Permeability enhancement by seismic waves could potentially be engineered and the experiments suggest the process will be most effective at a preferred frequency. We have recently observed similar processes inside active fault zones after major earthquakes. A borehole observatory in the fault that generated the M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake reveals a sequence of temperature pulses during the secondary aftershock sequence of an M7.3 aftershock. The pulses are attributed to fluid advection by a flow through a zone of transiently increased permeability. Directly after the M7.3 earthquake, the newly damaged fault zone is highly susceptible to further permeability enhancement, but ultimately heals within a month and becomes no longer as sensitive. The observation suggests that the newly damaged fault zone is more prone to fluid pulsing than would be expected based on the long-term permeability structure. Even longer term healing is seen inside the fault zone of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The competition between damage and healing (or clogging and unclogging) results in dynamically controlled permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity. Recent measurements of in situ fault zone architecture at the 1-10 meter scale suggest that active fault zones often have hydraulic diffusivities near 10-2 m2/s. This uniformity is true even within the damage zone of the San Andreas fault where permeability and storage increases balance each other to achieve this value of diffusivity over a 400 m wide region. We speculate that fault zones

Chilean megathrust earthquake recurrence linked to frictional contrast at depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, M.; Li, S.; Melnick, D.; Bedford, J. R.; Baez, J. C.; Motagh, M.; Metzger, S.; Vajedian, S.; Sippl, C.; Gutknecht, B. D.; Contreras-Reyes, E.; Deng, Z.; Tassara, A.; Oncken, O.

2018-04-01

Fundamental processes of the seismic cycle in subduction zones, including those controlling the recurrence and size of great earthquakes, are still poorly understood. Here, by studying the 2016 earthquake in southern Chile—the first large event within the rupture zone of the 1960 earthquake (moment magnitude (Mw) = 9.5)—we show that the frictional zonation of the plate interface fault at depth mechanically controls the timing of more frequent, moderate-size deep events (Mw < 8) and less frequent, tsunamigenic great shallow earthquakes (Mw > 8.5). We model the evolution of stress build-up for a seismogenic zone with heterogeneous friction to examine the link between the 2016 and 1960 earthquakes. Our results suggest that the deeper segments of the seismogenic megathrust are weaker and interseismically loaded by a more strongly coupled, shallower asperity. Deeper segments fail earlier ( 60 yr recurrence), producing moderate-size events that precede the failure of the shallower region, which fails in a great earthquake (recurrence >110 yr). We interpret the contrasting frictional strength and lag time between deeper and shallower earthquakes to be controlled by variations in pore fluid pressure. Our integrated analysis strengthens understanding of the mechanics and timing of great megathrust earthquakes, and therefore could aid in the seismic hazard assessment of other subduction zones.

Foreshock Patterns Preceding Great Earthquakes in the Subduction Zone of Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, G. A.; Minadakis, G.

2016-10-01

Foreshock activity is considered as one of the most promising precursory changes for the main shock prediction in the short term. Averaging over several foreshock sequences has shown that foreshocks are characterized by distinct 3D patterns: their epicenters move towards the main shock epicenter, event count accelerates, and b-value drops. However, these space-time-size patterns were verified so far only in a very few individual cases mainly due to inadequate seismicity catalogue data. We have investigated 3D foreshock patterns before the M w 8.8 Maule in 27 February 2010, M w 8.1 Iquique in 1 April 2014, and M w 8.4 Illapel in 16 September 2015 great earthquakes in the Chile subduction zone. To avoid biased results, no a priori spatiotemporal definitions of foreshocks were inserted. The procedure was based on pattern recognition from statistically significant seismicity changes in the three domains. The pattern recognition in one domain was independent of the pattern recognition in another domain. We found and verified with two independent catalogue data sets (CSN, IPOC) that within a critical area of ca. 65 km from the main shock epicenter, the 2014 event was preceded by distinct foreshock 3D patterns. A nearly weak foreshock stage (20 January-14 March 2014) was followed by a main-strong stage (15 March-1 April 2014) highly significant in all domains, although foreshock activity slightly decreased in about the last 5 days. Seismic moment release also accelerated in the last stage due to the occurrence of a cluster of very strong foreshock events. Foreshock activity very likely occurred in the hanging-wall fault domain on the South American Plate overriding Nazca Plate. The 2014 foreshock activity was quite similar to the one preceding the 6 Apr. 2009 L' Aquila (Italy) M w 6.3 earthquake associated with normal faulting. Using the 2014 earthquake as a reference event, we observed that similar foreshock 3D patterns preceded the 2010 and 2015 earthquakes within

The U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Summary Posters: A GIS-based Education and Communication Product for Presenting Consolidated Post-Earthquake Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarr, A.; Benz, H.; Earle, P.; Wald, D. J.

2003-12-01

Earthquake Summary Posters (ESP's), a new product of the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Program, are produced at the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) in Golden. The posters consist of rapidly-generated, GIS-based maps made following significant earthquakes worldwide (typically M>7.0, or events of significant media/public interest). ESP's consolidate, in an attractive map format, a large-scale epicentral map, several auxiliary regional overviews (showing tectonic and geographical setting, seismic history, seismic hazard, and earthquake effects), depth sections (as appropriate), a table of regional earthquakes, and a summary of the reional seismic history and tectonics. The immediate availability of the latter text summaries has been facilitated by the availability of Rapid, Accurate Tectonic Summaries (RATS) produced at NEIC and posted on the web following significant events. The rapid production of ESP's has been facilitated by generating, during the past two years, regional templates for tectonic areas around the world by organizing the necessary spatially-referenced data for the map base and the thematic layers that overlay the base. These GIS databases enable scripted Arc Macro Language (AML) production of routine elements of the maps (for example background seismicity, tectonic features, and probabilistic hazard maps). However, other elements of the maps are earthquake-specific and are produced manually to reflect new data, earthquake effects, and special characteristics. By the end of this year, approximately 85% of the Earth's seismic zones will be covered for generating future ESP's. During the past year, 13 posters were completed, comparable to the yearly average expected for significant earthquakes. Each year, all ESPs will be published on a CD in PDF format as an Open-File Report. In addition, each is linked to the special event earthquake pages on the USGS Earthquake Program web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov). Although three formats

Margin-Wide Earthquake Subspace Scanning Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using the Cascadia Initiative Amphibious Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, E.; Bilek, S. L.; Rowe, C. A.

2017-12-01

Understanding the spatial extent and behavior of the interplate contact in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) may prove pivotal to preparation for future great earthquakes, such as the M9 event of 1700. Current and historic seismic catalogs are limited in their integrity by their short duration, given the recurrence rate of great earthquakes, and by their rather high magnitude of completeness for the interplate seismic zone, due to its offshore distance from these land-based networks. This issue is addressed via the 2011-2015 Cascadia Initiative (CI) amphibious seismic array deployment, which combined coastal land seismometers with more than 60 ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) situated directly above the presumed plate interface. We search the CI dataset for small, previously undetected interplate earthquakes to identify seismic patches on the megathrust. Using the automated subspace detection method, we search for previously undetected events. Our subspace comprises eigenvectors derived from CI OBS and on-land waveforms extracted for existing catalog events that appear to have occurred on the plate interface. Previous work focused on analysis of two repeating event clusters off the coast of Oregon spanning all 4 years of deployment. Here we expand earlier results to include detection and location analysis to the entire CSZ margin during the first year of CI deployment, with more than 200 new events detected for the central portion of the margin. Template events used for subspace scanning primarily occurred beneath the land surface along the coast, at the downdip edge of modeled high slip patches for the 1700 event, with most concentrated at the northwestern edge of the Olympic Peninsula.

Aftershocks illuminate the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake causative fault zone and nearby active faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horton, J. Wright; Shah, Anjana K.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Snyder, Stephen L.; Carter, Aina M

2015-01-01

Deployment of temporary seismic stations after the 2011 Mineral, Virginia (USA), earthquake produced a well-recorded aftershock sequence. The majority of aftershocks are in a tabular cluster that delineates the previously unknown Quail fault zone. Quail fault zone aftershocks range from ~3 to 8 km in depth and are in a 1-km-thick zone striking ~036° and dipping ~50°SE, consistent with a 028°, 50°SE main-shock nodal plane having mostly reverse slip. This cluster extends ~10 km along strike. The Quail fault zone projects to the surface in gneiss of the Ordovician Chopawamsic Formation just southeast of the Ordovician–Silurian Ellisville Granodiorite pluton tail. The following three clusters of shallow (<3 km) aftershocks illuminate other faults. (1) An elongate cluster of early aftershocks, ~10 km east of the Quail fault zone, extends 8 km from Fredericks Hall, strikes ~035°–039°, and appears to be roughly vertical. The Fredericks Hall fault may be a strand or splay of the older Lakeside fault zone, which to the south spans a width of several kilometers. (2) A cluster of later aftershocks ~3 km northeast of Cuckoo delineates a fault near the eastern contact of the Ordovician Quantico Formation. (3) An elongate cluster of late aftershocks ~1 km northwest of the Quail fault zone aftershock cluster delineates the northwest fault (described herein), which is temporally distinct, dips more steeply, and has a more northeastward strike. Some aftershock-illuminated faults coincide with preexisting units or structures evident from radiometric anomalies, suggesting tectonic inheritance or reactivation.

Tsunamigenic earthquake simulations using experimentally derived friction laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, S.; Di Toro, G.; Romano, F.; Scala, A.; Lorito, S.; Spagnuolo, E.; Aretusini, S.; Festa, G.; Piatanesi, A.; Nielsen, S.

2018-03-01

Seismological, tsunami and geodetic observations have shown that subduction zones are complex systems where the properties of earthquake rupture vary with depth as a result of different pre-stress and frictional conditions. A wealth of earthquakes of different sizes and different source features (e.g. rupture duration) can be generated in subduction zones, including tsunami earthquakes, some of which can produce extreme tsunamigenic events. Here, we offer a geological perspective principally accounting for depth-dependent frictional conditions, while adopting a simplified distribution of on-fault tectonic pre-stress. We combine a lithology-controlled, depth-dependent experimental friction law with 2D elastodynamic rupture simulations for a Tohoku-like subduction zone cross-section. Subduction zone fault rocks are dominantly incohesive and clay-rich near the surface, transitioning to cohesive and more crystalline at depth. By randomly shifting along fault dip the location of the high shear stress regions ("asperities"), moderate to great thrust earthquakes and tsunami earthquakes are produced that are quite consistent with seismological, geodetic, and tsunami observations. As an effect of depth-dependent friction in our model, slip is confined to the high stress asperity at depth; near the surface rupture is impeded by the rock-clay transition constraining slip to the clay-rich layer. However, when the high stress asperity is located in the clay-to-crystalline rock transition, great thrust earthquakes can be generated similar to the Mw 9 Tohoku (2011) earthquake.

Calculation of earthquake rupture histories using a hybrid global search algorithm: Application to the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.

1996-01-01

A method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm. The method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts. This formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum. We apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the Landers, California, earthquake. The rupture is modeled using three separate finite-fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake. Both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults. The data used consist of digital, teleseismic P and SH body waves. Long-period, broadband, and short-period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source. The results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear-least-squares inversion for only slip amplitudes. We use a multi-time-window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least-squares inversion. Both inversions produce similar slip distributions, although the linear-least-squares solution has a 10% larger moment (7.3 ?? 1026 dyne-cm compared with 6.6 ?? 1026 dyne-cm). Both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of (1) using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process, (2) including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution, and (3) focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set.

The great Lisbon earthquake and tsunami of 1755: lessons from the recent Sumatra earthquakes and possible link to Plato's Atlantis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutscher, M.-A.

2006-05-01

Great earthquakes and tsunami can have a tremendous societal impact. The Lisbon earthquake and tsunami of 1755 caused tens of thousands of deaths in Portugal, Spain and NW Morocco. Felt as far as Hamburg and the Azores islands, its magnitude is estimated to be 8.5 9. However, because of the complex tectonics in Southern Iberia, the fault that produced the earthquake has not yet been clearly identified. Recently acquired data from the Gulf of Cadiz area (tomography, seismic profiles, high-resolution bathymetry, sampled active mud volcanoes) provide strong evidence for an active east dipping subduction zone beneath Gibraltar. Eleven out of 12 of the strongest earthquakes (M>8.5) of the past 100 years occurred along subduction zone megathrusts (including the December 2004 and March 2005 Sumatra earthquakes). Thus, it appears likely that the 1755 earthquake and tsunami were generated in a similar fashion, along the shallow east-dipping subduction fault plane. This implies that the Cadiz subduction zone is locked (like the Cascadia and Nankai/Japan subduction zones), with great earthquakes occurring over long return periods. Indeed, the regional paleoseismic record (contained in deep-water turbidites and shallow lagoon deposits) suggests great earthquakes off South West Iberia every 1500 2000 years. Tsunami deposits indicate an earlier great earthquake struck SW Iberia around 200 BC, as noted by Roman records from Cadiz. A written record of even older events may also exist. According to Plato's dialogues The Critias and The Timaeus, Atlantis was destroyed by ‘strong earthquakes and floods … in a single day and night’ at a date given as 11,600 BP. A 1 m thick turbidite deposit, containing coarse grained sediments from underwater avalanches, has been dated at 12,000 BP and may correspond to the destructive earthquake and tsunami described by Plato. The effects on a paleo-island (Spartel) in the straits of Gibraltar would have been devastating, if inhabited, and may

The seismic velocity structure of a foreshock zone on an oceanic transform fault: Imaging a rupture barrier to the 2008 Mw 6.0 earthquake on the Gofar fault, EPR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, E. C.; McGuire, J. J.; Lizarralde, D.; Collins, J. A.

2010-12-01

East Pacific Rise (EPR) oceanic transform faults are known to exhibit a number of unique seismicity characteristics, including abundant seismic swarms, a prevalence of aseismic slip, and high rates of foreshock activity. Until recently the details of how this behavior fits into the seismic cycle of large events that occur periodically on transforms have remained poorly understood. In 2008 the most recent seismic cycle of the western segment (G3) of the Gofar fault (4 degrees South on the EPR) ended with a Mw 6.0 earthquake. Seismicity associated with this event was recorded by a local array of ocean bottom seismometers, and earthquake locations reveal several distinct segments with unique slip behavior on the G3 fault. Preceding the Mw 6.0 event, a significant foreshock sequence was recorded just to the east of the mainshock rupture zone that included more than 20,000 detected earthquakes. This foreshock zone formed the eastern barrier to the mainshock rupture, and following the mainshock, seismicity rates within the foreshock zone remained unchanged. Based on aftershock locations of events following the 2007 Mw 6.0 event that completed the seismic cycle on the eastern end of the G3 fault, it appears that the same foreshock zone may have served as the western rupture barrier for that prior earthquake. Moreover, mainshock rupture associated with each of the last 8 large (~ Mw 6.0) events on the G3 fault seems to terminate at the same foreshock zone. In order to elucidate some of the structural controls on fault slip and earthquake rupture along transform faults, we present a seismic P-wave velocity profile crossing the center of the foreshock zone of the Gofar fault, as well as a profile for comparison across the neighboring Quebrada fault. Although tectonically similar, Quebrada does not sustain large earthquakes and is thought to accommodate slip primarily aseismically and with small magnitude earthquake swarms. Velocity profiles were obtained using data collected

Global pattern of earthquakes and seismic energy distributions: Insights for the mechanisms of plate tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varga, P.; Krumm, F.; Riguzzi, F.; Doglioni, C.; Süle, B.; Wang, K.; Panza, G. F.

2012-03-01

In this paper, we analyse the distributions of number of events (N) and seismic energy (E) on the Earth's surface and along its radius as obtained from the global declustered catalogue of large independent events (M ≥ 7.0), dissipating about 95% of the Earth's elastic budget. The latitude distribution of the seismic event density is almost symmetric with respect to the equator and the seismic energy flux distribution is bimodal; both have their medians near the equator so that they are equally distributed in the two hemispheres. This symmetry with respect to the equator suggests that the Earth's rotational dynamics contributes to modulate the long-term tectonic processes. The distributions of number and energy of earthquakes versus depth are not uniform as well: 76% of the total earthquakes dissipates about 60% of the total energy in the first ~ 50 km; only 6% of events dissipates about 20% of the total amount of energy in a narrow depth interval, at the lower boundary of the upper mantle (550-680 km). Therefore, only the remaining 20% of energy is released along most of the depth extent of subduction zones (50-550 km). Since the energetic release along slabs is a minor fraction of the total seismic budget, the role of the slab pull appears as ancillary, if any, in driving plate tectonics. Moreover the concentration of seismic release in the not yet subducted lithosphere suggests that the force moving the plates acts on the uppermost lithosphere and contemporaneously all over the Earth's outer shell, again supporting a rotational/tidal modulation.

Timing of large earthquakes since A.D. 800 on the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault zone at Thousand Palms Oasis, near Palm Springs, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fumal, T.E.; Rymer, M.J.; Seitz, G.G.

2002-01-01

Paleoseismic investigations across the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault at Thousand Palms Oasis indicate that four and probably five surface-rupturing earthquakes occurred during the past 1200 years. Calendar age estimates for these earthquakes are based on a chronological model that incorporates radio-carbon dates from 18 in situ burn layers and stratigraphic ordering constraints. These five earthquakes occurred in about A.D. 825 (770-890) (mean, 95% range), A.D. 982 (840-1150), A.D. 1231 (1170-1290), A.D. 1502 (1450-1555), and after a date in the range of A.D. 1520-1680. The most recent surface-rupturing earthquake at Thousand Palms is likely the same as the A.D. 1676 ?? 35 event at Indio reported by Sieh and Williams (1990). Each of the past five earthquakes recorded on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley strongly overlaps in time with an event at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site, about 120 km northwest of Thousand Palms Oasis. Correlation of events between these two sites suggests that at least the southernmost 200 km of the San Andreas fault zone may have ruptured in each earthquake. The average repeat time for surface-rupturing earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley is 215 ?? 25 years, whereas the elapsed time since the most recent event is 326 ?? 35 years. This suggests the southernmost San Andreas fault zone likely is very near failure. The Thousand Palms Oasis site is underlain by a series of six channels cut and filled since about A.D. 800 that cross the fault at high angles. A channel margin about 900 years old is offset right laterally 2.0 ?? 0.5 m, indicating a slip rate of 4 ?? 2 mm/yr. This slip rate is low relative to geodetic and other geologic slip rate estimates (26 ?? 2 mm/yr and about 23-35 mm/yr, respectively) on the southernmost San Andreas fault zone, possibly because (1) the site is located in a small step-over in the fault trace and so the rate is not be representative of the Mission Creek fault

Shallow seismic structure of Kunlun fault zone in northern Tibetan Plateau, China: Implications for the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Chun-Yong; Mooney, W.D.; Ding, Z.; Yang, J.; Yao, Z.; Lou, H.

2009-01-01

The shallow seismic velocity structure of the Kunlun fault zone (KLFZ) was jointly deduced from seismic refraction profiling and the records of trapped waves that were excited by five explosions. The data were collected after the 2001 Kunlun M s8.1 earthquake in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Seismic phases for the in-line record sections (26 records up to a distance of 15 km) along the fault zone were analysed, and 1-D P- and S-wave velocity models of shallow crust within the fault zone were determined by using the seismic refraction method. Sixteen seismic stations were deployed along the off-line profile perpendicular to the fault zone. Fault-zone trapped waves appear clearly on the record sections, which were simulated with a 3-D finite difference algorithm. Quantitative analysis of the correlation coefficients of the synthetic and observed trapped waveforms indicates that the Kunlun fault-zone width is 300 m, and S-wave quality factor Q within the fault zone is 15. Significantly, S-wave velocities within the fault zone are reduced by 30-45 per cent from surrounding rocks to a depth of at least 1-2 km, while P-wave velocities are reduced by 7-20 per cent. A fault-zone with such P- and S-low velocities is an indication of high fluid pressure because Vs is affected more than Vp. The low-velocity and low-Q zone in the KLFZ model is the effect of multiple ruptures along the fault trace of the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 RAS.

Workshop on New Madrid geodesy and the challenges of understanding intraplate earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver; Calais, Eric; Langbein, John; Magistrale, Harold; Stein, Seth; Zoback, Mark

2013-01-01

On March 4, 2011, 26 researchers gathered in Norwood, Massachusetts, for a workshop sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey and FM Global to discuss geodesy in and around the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and its relation to earthquake hazard. The group addressed the challenge of reconciling current geodetic measurements, which show low present-day surface strain rates, with paleoseismic evidence of recent, relatively frequent, major earthquakes in the region. Several researchers were invited by the organizing committee to give overview presentations while all participants were encouraged to present their most recent ideas. The overview presentations appear in this report along with a set of recommendations.

Review of variations in Mw < 7 earthquake motions on position and tec (Mw = 6.5 aegean sea earthquake sample)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yildirim, O.; Inyurt, S.; Mekik, C.

2015-10-01

Turkey is a country located in Middle Latitude zone and in which tectonic activity is intensive. Lastly, an earthquake of magnitude 6.5Mw occurred at Aegean Sea offshore on date 24 May 2014 at 12:25 UTC and it lasted approximately 40 s. The said earthquake was felt also in Greece, Romania and Bulgaria in addition to Turkey. In recent years seismic origin ionospheric anomaly detection studies have been done with TEC (Total Electron Contents) generated from GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signals and the findings obtained have been revealed. In this study, TEC and positional variations have been examined seperately regarding the earthquake which occurred in the Aegean Sea. Then The correlation of the said ionospheric variation with the positional variation has been investigated. For this purpose, total fifteen stations have been used among which the data of four numbers of CORS-TR stations in the seismic zone (AYVL, CANA, IPSA, YENC) and IGS and EUREF stations are used. The ionospheric and positional variations of AYVL, CANA, IPSA and YENC stations have been examined by Bernese 5.0v software. When the (PPP-TEC) values produced as result of the analysis are examined, it has been understood that in the four stations located in Turkey, three days before the earthquake at 08:00 and 10:00 UTC, the TEC values were approximately 4 TECU above the upper limit TEC value. Still in the same stations, one day before the earthquake at 06:00, 08:00 and 10:00 UTC, it is being shown that the TEC values were approximately 5 TECU below the lower limit TEC value. On the other hand, the GIM-TEC values published by the CODE center have been examined. Still in all stations, it has been observed that three days before the earthquake the TEC values in the time portions of 08:00 and 10:00 UTC were approximately 2 TECU above, one day before the earthquake at 06:00, 08:00 and 10:00 UTC, the TEC values were approximately 4 TECU below the lower limit TEC value. Again, by using the same

Status and interconnections of selected environmental issues in the global coastal zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shi, Hua; Singh, Ashbindu

2003-01-01

This study focuses on assessing the state of population distribution, land cover distribution, biodiversity hotspots, and protected areas in global coastal zones. The coastal zone is defined as land within 100 km of the coastline. This study attempts to answer such questions as: how crowded are the coastal zones, what is the pattern of land cover distribution in these areas, how much of these areas are designated as protected areas, what is the state of the biodiversity hotspots, and what are the interconnections between people and coastal environment. This study uses globally consistent and comprehensive geospatial datasets based on remote sensing and other sources. The application of Geographic Information System (GIS) layering methods and consistent datasets has made it possible to identify and quantify selected coastal zones environmental issues and their interconnections. It is expected that such information provide a scientific basis for global coastal zones management and assist in policy formulations at the national and international levels.

Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

PubMed

Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

2015-01-01

This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (TCIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdik, M.; Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.

2009-04-01

Through a World Bank project a government-sponsored Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP) is created in 2000 with the essential aim of transferring the government's financial burden of replacing earthquake-damaged housing to international reinsurance and capital markets. Providing coverage to about 2.9 Million homeowners TCIP is the largest insurance program in the country with about 0.5 Billion USD in its own reserves and about 2.3 Billion USD in total claims paying capacity. The total payment for earthquake damage since 2000 (mostly small, 226 earthquakes) amounts to about 13 Million USD. The country-wide penetration rate is about 22%, highest in the Marmara region (30%) and lowest in the south-east Turkey (9%). TCIP is the sole-source provider of earthquake loss coverage up to 90,000 USD per house. The annual premium, categorized on the basis of earthquake zones type of structure, is about US90 for a 100 square meter reinforced concrete building in the most hazardous zone with 2% deductible. The earthquake engineering related shortcomings of the TCIP is exemplified by fact that the average rate of 0.13% (for reinforced concrete buildings) with only 2% deductible is rather low compared to countries with similar earthquake exposure. From an earthquake engineering point of view the risk underwriting (Typification of housing units to be insured, earthquake intensity zonation and the sum insured) of the TCIP needs to be overhauled. Especially for large cities, models can be developed where its expected earthquake performance (and consequently the insurance premium) can be can be assessed on the basis of the location of the unit (microzoned earthquake hazard) and basic structural attributes (earthquake vulnerability relationships). With such an approach, in the future the TCIP can contribute to the control of construction through differentiation of premia on the basis of earthquake vulnerability.

Repeating Earthquakes Following an Mw 4.4 Earthquake Near Luther, Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clements, T.; Keranen, K. M.; Savage, H. M.

2015-12-01

An Mw 4.4 earthquake on April 16, 2013 near Luther, OK was one of the earliest M4+ earthquakes in central Oklahoma, following the Prague sequence in 2011. A network of four local broadband seismometers deployed within a day of the Mw 4.4 event, along with six Oklahoma netquake stations, recorded more than 500 aftershocks in the two weeks following the Luther earthquake. Here we use HypoDD (Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000) and waveform cross-correlation to obtain precise aftershock locations. The location uncertainty, calculated using the SVD method in HypoDD, is ~15 m horizontally and ~ 35 m vertically. The earthquakes define a near vertical, NE-SW striking fault plane. Events occur at depths from 2 km to 3.5 km within the granitic basement, with a small fraction of events shallower, near the sediment-basement interface. Earthquakes occur within a zone of ~200 meters thickness on either side of the best-fitting fault surface. We use an equivalency class algorithm to identity clusters of repeating events, defined as event pairs with median three-component correlation > 0.97 across common stations (Aster & Scott, 1993). Repeating events occur as doublets of only two events in over 50% of cases; overall, 41% of earthquakes recorded occur as repeating events. The recurrence intervals for the repeating events range from minutes to days, with common recurrence intervals of less than two minutes. While clusters occur in tight dimensions, commonly of 80 m x 200 m, aftershocks occur in 3 distinct ~2km x 2km-sized patches along the fault. Our analysis suggests that with rapidly deployed local arrays, the plethora of ~Mw 4 earthquakes occurring in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas can be used to investigate the earthquake rupture process and the role of damage zones.

Magnitude Dependent Seismic Quiescence of 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suyehiro, K.; Sacks, S. I.; Takanami, T.; Smith, D. E.; Rydelek, P. A.

2014-12-01

The change in seismicity leading to the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008 (Mw 7.9) has been studied by various authors based on statistics and/or pattern recognitions (Huang, 2008; Yan et al., 2009; Chen and Wang, 2010; Yi et al., 2011). We show, in particular, that the magnitude-dependent seismic quiescence is observed for the Wenchuan earthquake and that it adds to other similar observations. Such studies on seismic quiescence prior to major earthquakes include 1982 Urakawa-Oki earthquake (M 7.1) (Taylor et al., 1992), 1994 Hokkaido-Toho-Oki earthquake (Mw=8.2) (Takanami et al., 1996), 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw=9.0) (Katsumata, 2011). Smith and Sacks (2013) proposed a magnitude-dependent quiescence based on a physical earthquake model (Rydelek and Sacks, 1995) and demonstrated the quiescence can be reproduced by the introduction of "asperities" (dilantacy hardened zones). Actual observations indicate the change occurs in a broader area than the eventual earthquake fault zone. In order to accept the explanation, we need to verify the model as the model predicts somewhat controversial features of earthquakes such as the magnitude dependent stress drop at lower magnitude range or the dynamically appearing asperities and repeating slips in some parts of the rupture zone. We show supportive observations. We will also need to verify the dilatancy diffusion to be taking place. So far, we only seem to have indirect evidences, which need to be more quantitatively substantiated.

Wasatch fault zone, Utah - segmentation and history of Holocene earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Machette, Michael N.; Personius, Stephen F.; Nelson, Alan R.; Schwartz, David P.; Lund, William R.

1991-01-01

The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) forms the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range province and is the longest continuous, active normal fault (343 km) in the United States. It underlies an urban corridor of 1.6 million people (80% of Utah's population) representing the largest earthquake risk in the interior of the western United States. The authors have used paleoseismological data to identify 10 discrete segments of the WFZ. Five are active, medial segments with Holocene slip rates of 1-2 mm a-1, recurrence intervals of 2000-4000 years and average lengths of about 50 km. Five are less active, distal segments with mostly pre-Holocene surface ruptures, late Quaternary slip rates of <0.5 mm a-1, recurrence intervals of ???10,000 years and average lengths of about 20 km. Surface-faulting events on each of the medial segments of the WFZ formed 2-4-m-high scarps repeatedly during the Holocene. Paleoseismological records for the past 6000 years indicate that a major surface-rupturing earthquake has occurred along one of the medial segments about every 395 ?? 60 years. However, between about 400 and 1500 years ago, the WFZ experienced six major surface-rupturing events, an average of one event every 220 years, or about twice as often as expected from the 6000-year record. Evidence has been found that surface-rupturing events occurred on the WFZ during the past 400 years, a time period which is twice the average intracluster recurrence interval and equal to the average Holocene recurrence interval.

Global teleseismic earthquake relocation with improved travel times and procedures for depth determination