Science.gov

Sample records for earthquake zone global

  1. Estimates of radiated energy from global shallow subduction zone earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bilek, S. L.; Lay, T.; Ruff, L.

    2002-12-01

    Previous studies used seismic energy to moment ratios for datasets of large earthquakes as a useful discriminant for tsunami earthquakes. We extend this idea of a "slowness" discriminant to a large dataset of subduction zone underthrusting earthquakes. We determined estimates of energy release in these shallow earthquakes using a large dataset of source time functions. This dataset contains source time functions for 418 shallow (< 70 km depth) earthquakes ranging from Mw 5.5 - 8.0 from 14 circum-Pacific subduction zones. Also included are tsunami earthquakes for which source time functions are available. We calculate energy using two methods, a substitution of a simplified triangle and integration of the original source time function. In the first method, we use a triangle substitution of peak moment and duration to find a minimum estimate of energy. The other method incorporates more of the source time function information and can be influenced by source time function complexity. We examine patterns in source time function complexity with respect to the energy estimates. For comparison with other earthquake parameters, it is useful to remove the effect of seismic moment on the energy estimates. We use the seismic energy to moment ratio (E/Mo) to highlight variations with depth, moment, and subduction zone. There is significant scatter in this ratio using both methods of energy calculation. We observe a slight increase in E/Mo with increasing Mw. There is not much variation in E/Mo with depth seen in entire dataset. However, a slight increase in E/Mo with depth is apparent in a few subduction zones such as Alaska, Central America, and Peru. An average E/Mo of 5x10e-6 roughly characterizes this shallow earthquake dataset, although with a factor of 10 scatter. This value is within about a factor of 2 of E/Mo ratios determined by Choy and Boatwright (1995). Tsunami earthquakes suggest an average E/Mo of 2x10e-7, significantly lower than the average for the shallow

  2. Global Patterns of Radiated Energy for Thrust Earthquakes in Subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choy, G. L.; Kirby, S. H.

    2008-12-01

    Teleseismic studies have found that, for a given seismic moment M0, the radiated energy ES of an earthquake can range over two orders of magnitude. Intraplate and intraslab earthquakes having unusually elevated radiated energy are largely confined to specific high-deformation tectonic settings, an observation which can lead to improving estimates of seismic hazard potential (Choy et al., GJI, 2002, 2004). In contrast, the population of interplate thrust subduction earthquakes has the lowest average ES/M0 ratio among plate-boundary earthquakes. Nevertheless, among subduction plate-boundary earthquakes, there is considerable variability in this ratio. For example, some large earthquakes of this type have anomalously low energy (i.e., low ES/M0 ratio), a characteristic associated with tsunamigenic events involving slow rupture. In a global reconnaissance of the radiated energies of more than 1300 large shallow thrust earthquakes (magnitude greater than about 5.5 and depth < 70 km) that occurred from 1987 to 2006 in subduction zones, we found 270 earthquakes with anomalously low energy radiation comparable to that of tsunamigenic slow earthquakes. The enervated (low energy) earthquakes have a magnitude differential Δ M > 0.5 (where Δ M is the difference between energy magnitude Me and moment magnitude Mw). This reconnaissance also found 152 earthquakes with anomalously high energy radiation. These energetic thrust events have Δ M values less than about -0.2. The global distributions of energetic and enervated events are not random and typically do not overlap. Enervated events are nearly always located at the top surface of a Wadati-Benioff zone defining a narrow zone that can be interpreted as the slab interface. Energetic events occur in high-deformation tectonic settings, such as some marine collision zones involving seamount chains, submerged continent-continent collisions, colliding slabs, regions of complex plate interactions, and slab distortions. Some of

  3. Global correlations between maximum magnitudes of subduction zone interface thrust earthquakes and physical parameters of subduction zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schellart, W. P.; Rawlinson, N.

    2013-12-01

    T). The results indicate that MW > 8.5 subduction earthquakes occur for rapidly shortening to slowly extending overriding plates (-3.0 ⩽ vOPD⊥ ⩽ 2.3 cm/yr), slow trench velocities (-2.9 ⩽ vT⊥ ⩽ 2.8 cm/yr), moderate to high subduction partitioning ratios (vSP⊥/vS⊥ ⩽ 0.3-1.4), low subduction thrust dip angles (δST ⩽ 30°), low subduction thrust curvature (CST ⩽ 2.0 × 10-13 m-2) and low trench curvature angles (-6.3° ⩽ αT ⩽ 9.8°). Epicenters of giant earthquakes with MW > 8.5 only occur at trench segments bordering overriding plates that experience shortening or are neutral (vOPD⊥ ⩽ 0), suggesting that such earthquakes initiate at mechanically highly coupled segments of the subduction zone interface that have a relatively high normal stress (deviatoric compression) on the interface (i.e. a normal stress asperity). Notably, for the three largest recorded earthquakes (Chile 1960, Alaska 1964, Sumatra-Andaman 2004) the earthquake rupture propagated from a zone of compressive deviatoric normal stress on the subduction zone interface to a region of lower normal stress (neutral or deviatoric tension). Stress asperities should be seen separately from frictional asperities that result from a variation in friction coefficient along the subduction zone interface. We have developed a global map in which individual subduction zone segments have been ranked in terms of their predicted capability of generating a giant subduction zone earthquake (MW > 8.5) using the six most indicative subduction zone parameters (vOPD⊥, vT⊥, vSP⊥/vS⊥, δST, CST and αT). We identify a number of subduction zones and segments that rank highly, which implies a capability to generate MW > 8.5 earthquakes. These include Sunda, North Sulawesi, Hikurangi, Nankai-northern Ryukyu, Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan, Aleutians-Alaska, Cascadia, Mexico-Central America, South America, Lesser Antilles, western Hellenic and Makran. Several subduction segments have a low score, most notably

  4. Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.

    2002-01-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with Ms ??? 7.0 from the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occured near (defined as having shear stress change ???????? ??? 0.01 MPa) the Ms ??? 7.0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ???39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, these triggered earthquakes obey an Omori law rate decay that lasts between ???7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid. Omori's law is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. If large triggered earthquakes habitually obey Omori's law, then their hazard can be more readily assessed. The characteristics rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of Ms ??? 7.0. I show an example application to the M = 7.7 13 January 2001 El Salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than Coulomb stress change calculations.

  5. Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Tom

    2002-01-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 from the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near (defined as having shear stress change ∣Δτ∣ ≥ 0.01 MPa) the Ms ≥ 7.0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ∼39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, these triggered earthquakes obey an Omori law rate decay that lasts between ∼7–11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid. Omori's law is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. If large triggered earthquakes habitually obey Omori's law, then their hazard can be more readily assessed. The characteristic rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of Ms ≥ 7.0. I show an example application to the M = 7.7 13 January 2001 El Salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than Coulomb stress change calculations.

  6. Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsons, Tom

    2002-09-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 from the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near (defined as having shear stress change ∣Δτ∣ ≥ 0.01 MPa) the Ms ≥ 7.0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ˜39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, these triggered earthquakes obey an Omori law rate decay that lasts between ˜7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid. Omori's law is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. If large triggered earthquakes habitually obey Omori's law, then their hazard can be more readily assessed. The characteristic rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of Ms ≥ 7.0. I show an example application to the M = 7.7 13 January 2001 El Salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than Coulomb stress change calculations.

  7. Zoning surface rupture hazard along normal faults: Insight from L'Aquila, 2009 (Mw 6.3, Central Italy) and other global earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boncio, P.; Galli, P.; Naso, G.; Pizzi, A.

    2012-04-01

    Surface fault rupture hazard (SFRH) is a localized seismic hazard due to the breaching of the ground surface from slip along a fault during a large earthquake. This motion may offset, tilt, distort and damage buildings on or in the vicinity of the fault trace. Although SFRH should be one of the most easily detectable seismic hazards, due to the visibility of active fault traces, the April 6, 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in central Italy (Mw 6.3) demonstrates that there is much progress to be made in assessing the hazard. Indeed, the 2009 normal faulting surface ruptures occurred across populated areas, producing mild-to-moderate damages to infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, roads) and buildings, including structures less than a few years old. Similar to other countries with SFRH, Italy does not have explicit and comprehensive codes and/or regulations concerning this important issue. Following the observation of surface faulting occurred during the 2009 earthquake, we propose general criteria for delineating zones of SFRH along active normal faults. Our proposal, which is explicitly inspired to the Californian Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act, compares the 2009 coseismic surficial faults to surface rupture data collected globally for several normal faulting earthquakes. We propose Earthquake Fault Zones (EFZ) and fault Setbacks (S) which are asymmetrically shaped around the fault trace. The zones are wider on the hanging wall, consistently with the observation of wider coseismic rupture zones in the hanging wall block compared to the footwall block. For faults mapped in detail, we suggest a 150 m-wide EFZ on the hanging wall and a 30 m-wide EFZ on the footwall. The suggested widths of the S on the hanging wall and footwall are 40 m and 15 m, respectively. Considering the data collected for the L'Aquila fault system and abroad, we are confident that our proposal is conservative enough for Apennine-like normal faults and, applicable to Italy and other areas with

  8. Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone

    SciTech Connect

    Heaton, T.H.; Hartzell, S.H.

    1987-04-10

    Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M/sub w/) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M/sub w/ 8) or a giant earthquake (M/sub w/ 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M/sub w/ less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M/sub w/ up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis. 35 references, 6 figures.

  9. Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone.

    PubMed

    Heaton, T H; Hartzell, S H

    1987-04-10

    Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M(w)) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M(w) 8) or a giant earthquake (M(w) 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M(w) less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M(w) up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis. PMID:17789780

  10. Global earthquake fatalities and population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Savage, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

  11. Limits on great earthquake size at subduction zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCaffrey, R.

    2012-12-01

    Subduction zones are where the world's greatest earthquakes occur due to the large fault area available to slip. Yet some subduction zones are thought to be immune from these massive events, where quake size is limited by some physical processes or properties. Accordingly, the size of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Mw 9.0 earthquake caught some in the earthquake research community by surprise. The expectations of these massive quakes have been driven in the past by reliance on our short, incomplete history of earthquakes and causal relationships derived from it. The logic applied is that if a great earthquake has not happened in the past, that we know of, one cannot happen in the future. Using the ~100-year global earthquake seismological history, and in some cases extended with geologic observations, relationships between maximum earthquake sizes and other properties of subduction zones are suggested, leading to the notion that some subduction zones, like the Japan Trench, would never produce a magnitude ~9 event. Empirical correlations of earthquake behavior with other subduction parameters can give false positive results when the data are incomplete or incorrect, of small numbers and numerous attributes are examined. Given multi-century return times of the greatest earthquakes, ignorance of those return times and our relatively limited temporal observation span (in most places), I suggest that we cannot yet rule out great earthquakes at any subduction zones. Alternatively, using the length of a subduction zone that is available for slip as the predominant factor in determining maximum earthquake size, we cannot rule out that any subduction zone of a few hundred kilometers or more in length may be capable of producing a magnitude 9 or larger earthquake. Based on this method, the expected maximum size for the Japan Trench was 9.0 (McCaffrey, Geology, p. 263, 2008). The same approach indicates that a M > 9 off Java, with twice the population density as Honshu and much lower

  12. Acceleration spectra for subduction zone earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, J.; Choy, G.L.

    1989-01-01

    We estimate the source spectra of shallow earthquakes from digital recordings of teleseismic P wave groups, that is, P+pP+sP, by making frequency dependent corrections for the attenuation and for the interference of the free surface. The correction for the interference of the free surface assumes that the earthquake radiates energy from a range of depths. We apply this spectral analysis to a set of 12 subduction zone earthquakes which range in size from Ms = 6.2 to 8.1, obtaining corrected P wave acceleration spectra on the frequency band from 0.01 to 2.0 Hz. Seismic moment estimates from surface waves and normal modes are used to extend these P wave spectra to the frequency band from 0.001 to 0.01 Hz. The acceleration spectra of large subduction zone earthquakes, that is, earthquakes whose seismic moments are greater than 1027 dyn cm, exhibit intermediate slopes where u(w)???w5/4 for frequencies from 0.005 to 0.05 Hz. For these earthquakes, spectral shape appears to be a discontinuous function of seismic moment. Using reasonable assumptions for the phase characteristics, we transform the spectral shape observed for large earthquakes into the time domain to fit Ekstrom's (1987) moment rate functions for the Ms=8.1 Michoacan earthquake of September 19, 1985, and the Ms=7.6 Michoacan aftershock of September 21, 1985. -from Authors

  13. Crustal earthquake triggering by pre-historic great earthquakes on subduction zone thrusts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherrod, Brian; Gomberg, Joan

    2014-02-01

    Triggering of earthquakes on upper plate faults during and shortly after recent great (M > 8.0) subduction thrust earthquakes raises concerns about earthquake triggering following Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Of particular regard to Cascadia was the previously noted, but only qualitatively identified, clustering of M > ~6.5 crustal earthquakes in the Puget Sound region between about 1200-900 cal years B.P. and the possibility that this was triggered by a great Cascadia thrust subduction thrust earthquake, and therefore portends future such clusters. We confirm quantitatively the extraordinary nature of the Puget Sound region crustal earthquake clustering between 1200-900 cal years B.P., at least over the last 16,000. We conclude that this cluster was not triggered by the penultimate, and possibly full-margin, great Cascadia subduction thrust earthquake. However, we also show that the paleoseismic record for Cascadia is consistent with conclusions of our companion study of the global modern record outside Cascadia, that M > 8.6 subduction thrust events have a high probability of triggering at least one or more M > ~6.5 crustal earthquakes.

  14. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  15. Earthquake rate and magnitude distributions of great earthquakes for use in global forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2016-04-01

    We have obtained new results in the statistical analysis of global earthquake catalogs with special attention to the largest earthquakes, and we examined the statistical behavior of earthquake rate variations. These results can serve as an input for updating our recent earthquake forecast, known as the "Global Earthquake Activity Rate 1" model (GEAR1), which is based on past earthquakes and geodetic strain rates. The GEAR1 forecast is expressed as the rate density of all earthquakes above magnitude 5.8 within 70 km of sea level everywhere on earth at 0.1 by 0.1 degree resolution, and it is currently being tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability. The seismic component of the present model is based on a smoothed version of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog from 1977 through 2013. The tectonic component is based on the Global Strain Rate Map, a "General Earthquake Model" (GEM) product. The forecast was optimized to fit the GCMT data from 2005 through 2012, but it also fit well the earthquake locations from 1918 to 1976 reported in the International Seismological Centre-Global Earthquake Model (ISC-GEM) global catalog of instrumental and pre-instrumental magnitude determinations. We have improved the recent forecast by optimizing the treatment of larger magnitudes and including a longer duration (1918-2011) ISC-GEM catalog of large earthquakes to estimate smoothed seismicity. We revised our estimates of upper magnitude limits, described as corner magnitudes, based on the massive earthquakes since 2004 and the seismic moment conservation principle. The new corner magnitude estimates are somewhat larger than but consistent with our previous estimates. For major subduction zones we find the best estimates of corner magnitude to be in the range 8.9 to 9.6 and consistent with a uniform average of 9.35. Statistical estimates tend to grow with time as larger earthquakes occur. However, by using the moment conservation principle that

  16. Earthquake rate and magnitude distributions of great earthquakes for use in global forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2016-07-01

    We have obtained new results in the statistical analysis of global earthquake catalogues with special attention to the largest earthquakes, and we examined the statistical behaviour of earthquake rate variations. These results can serve as an input for updating our recent earthquake forecast, known as the `Global Earthquake Activity Rate 1' model (GEAR1), which is based on past earthquakes and geodetic strain rates. The GEAR1 forecast is expressed as the rate density of all earthquakes above magnitude 5.8 within 70 km of sea level everywhere on earth at 0.1 × 0.1 degree resolution, and it is currently being tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability. The seismic component of the present model is based on a smoothed version of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue from 1977 through 2013. The tectonic component is based on the Global Strain Rate Map, a `General Earthquake Model' (GEM) product. The forecast was optimized to fit the GCMT data from 2005 through 2012, but it also fit well the earthquake locations from 1918 to 1976 reported in the International Seismological Centre-Global Earthquake Model (ISC-GEM) global catalogue of instrumental and pre-instrumental magnitude determinations. We have improved the recent forecast by optimizing the treatment of larger magnitudes and including a longer duration (1918-2011) ISC-GEM catalogue of large earthquakes to estimate smoothed seismicity. We revised our estimates of upper magnitude limits, described as corner magnitudes, based on the massive earthquakes since 2004 and the seismic moment conservation principle. The new corner magnitude estimates are somewhat larger than but consistent with our previous estimates. For major subduction zones we find the best estimates of corner magnitude to be in the range 8.9 to 9.6 and consistent with a uniform average of 9.35. Statistical estimates tend to grow with time as larger earthquakes occur. However, by using the moment conservation

  17. Deformation Processes in Great Subduction Zone Earthquake Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Yan

    This dissertation consists of two parts and investigates the crustal deformation associated with great subduction zone earthquake at two different spatial scales. At the small scale, I investigate the stress transfer along the megathrust during great earthquakes and its effects on the forearc wedge. At the large scale, I investigate the viscoelastic crustal deformation of the forearc and the back arc associated with great earthquakes. Part I: In a subduction zone, the frontal region of the forearc can be morphologically divided into the outer wedge and the inner wedge. The outer wedge which features much active plastic deformation has a surface slope angle generally larger than that of the inner wedge which hosts stable geological formations. The megathrust can be represented by a three-segment model, the updip zone (velocity-strengthening), seismogenic zone (velocity-weakening), and downdip zone (velocity-strengthening). Our dynamic Coulomb wedge theory postulates that the outer wedge overlies the updip zone, and the inner wedge overlies the seismogenic zone. During an earthquake, strengthening of the updip zone may result in compressive failure in the outer wedge. The inner wedge undergoes elastic deformation. I have examined the geometry and mechanical processes of outer wedges of twenty-three subduction zones. The surface slope of these wedges is generally too high to be explained by the classical critical taper theory but can be explained by the dynamic Coulomb wedge theory. Part II: A giant earthquake produces coseismic seaward motion of the upper plate and induces shear stresses in the upper mantle. After the earthquake, the fault is re-locked, causing the upper plate to move slowly landward. However, parts of the fault will undergo continuous aseismic afterslip for a short duration, causing areas surrounding the rupture zone to move seaward. At the same time, the viscoelastic relaxation of the earthquake-induced stresses in the upper mantle causes prolonged

  18. The earthquake cycle in subduction zones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melosh, H. J.; Fleitout, L.

    1982-01-01

    A simplified model of a subduction zone is presented, which incorporates the mechanical asymmetry induced by the subducted slab to anchor the subducting plate during post-seismic rebound and thus throw most of the coseismic stream release into the overthrust plate. The model predicts that the trench moves with respect to the deep mantle toward the subducting plate at a velocity equal to one-half of the convergence rate. A strong extensional pulse is propagated into the overthrust plate shortly after the earthquake, and although this extension changes into compression before the next earthquake in the cycle, the period of strong extension following the earthquake may be responsible for extensional tectonic features in the back-arc region.

  19. On subduction zone earthquakes and the Pacific Northwest seismicity

    SciTech Connect

    Chung, Dae H.

    1991-12-01

    A short review of subduction zone earthquakes and the seismicity of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States is provided for the purpose of a basis for assessing issues related to earthquake hazard evaluations for the region. This review of seismotectonics regarding historical subduction zone earthquakes and more recent seismological studies pertaining to rupture processes of subduction zone earthquakes, with specific references to the Pacific Northwest, is made in this brief study. Subduction zone earthquakes tend to rupture updip and laterally from the hypocenter. Thus, the rupture surface tends to become more elongated as one considers larger earthquakes (there is limited updip distance that is strongly coupled, whereas rupture length can be quite large). The great Aleutian-Alaska earthquakes of 1957, 1964, and 1965 had rupture lengths of greater than 650 km. The largest earthquake observed instrumentally, the M{sub W} 9.5, 1960 Chile Earthquake, had a rupture length over 1000 km. However, earthquakes of this magnitude are very unlikely on Cascadia. The degree of surface shaking has a very strong dependency on the depth and style of rupture. The rupture surface during a great earthquake shows heterogeneous stress drop, displacement, energy release, etc. The high strength zones are traditionally termed asperities and these asperities control when and how large an earthquake is generated. Mapping of these asperities in specific subduction zones is very difficult before an earthquake. They show up more easily in inversions of dynamic source studies of earthquake ruptures, after an earthquake. Because seismic moment is based on the total radiated-energy from an earthquake, the moment-based magnitude M{sub W} is superior to all other magnitude estimates, such as M{sub L}, m{sub b}, M{sub bLg}, M{sub S}, etc Probably, just to have a common language, non-moment magnitudes should be converted to M{sub W} in any discussions of subduction zone earthquakes.

  20. Trends in global earthquake loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnst, Isabel; Wenzel, Friedemann; Daniell, James

    2016-04-01

    Based on the CATDAT damage and loss database we analyse global trends of earthquake losses (in current values) and fatalities for the period between 1900 and 2015 from a statistical perspective. For this time period the data are complete for magnitudes above 6. First, we study the basic statistics of losses and find that losses below 10 bl. US satisfy approximately a power law with an exponent of 1.7 for the cumulative distribution. Higher loss values are modelled with the General Pareto Distribution (GPD). The 'transition' between power law and GPD is determined with the Mean Excess Function. We split the data set into a period of pre 1955 and post 1955 loss data as in those periods the exposure is significantly different due to population growth. The Annual Average Loss (AAL) for direct damage for events below 10 bl. US differs by a factor of 6, whereas the incorporation of the extreme loss events increases the AAL from 25 bl. US/yr to 30 bl. US/yr. Annual Average Deaths (AAD) show little (30%) difference for events below 6.000 fatalities and AAD values of 19.000 and 26.000 deaths per year if extreme values are incorporated. With data on the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that reflects the annual expenditures (consumption, investment, government spending) and on capital stock we relate losses to the economic capacity of societies and find that GDP (in real terms) grows much faster than losses so that the latter one play a decreasing role given the growing prosperity of mankind. This reasoning does not necessarily apply on a regional scale. Main conclusions of the analysis are that (a) a correct projection of historic loss values to nowadays US values is critical; (b) extreme value analysis is mandatory; (c) growing exposure is reflected in the AAL and AAD results for the periods pre and post 1955 events; (d) scaling loss values with global GDP data indicates that the relative size - from a global perspective - of losses decreases rapidly over time.

  1. Earthquake faulting in subduction zones: insights from fault rocks in accretionary prisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ujiie, Kohtaro; Kimura, Gaku

    2014-12-01

    Subduction earthquakes on plate-boundary megathrusts accommodate most of the global seismic moment release, frequently resulting in devastating damage by ground shaking and tsunamis. As many earthquakes occur in deep-sea regions, the dynamics of earthquake faulting in subduction zones is poorly understood. However, the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE) and fault rock studies in accretionary prisms exhumed from source depths of subduction earthquakes have greatly improved our understanding of earthquake faulting in subduction zones. Here, we review key advances that have been made over the last decade in the studies of fault rocks and in laboratory experiments using fault zone materials, with a particular focus on the Nankai Trough subduction zone and its on-land analog, the Shimanto accretionary complex in Japan. New insights into earthquake faulting in subduction zones are summarized in terms of the following: (1) the occurrence of seismic slip along velocity-strengthening materials both at shallow and deep depths; (2) dynamic weakening of faults by melt lubrication and fluidization, and possible factors controlling coseismic deformation mechanisms; (3) fluid-rock interactions and mineralogical and geochemical changes during earthquakes; and (4) geological and experimental aspects of slow earthquakes.

  2. The global systematics of subduction zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syracuse, Ellen M.

    To better understand the global systematics of subduction zones, a series of studies investigates their variability taking advantage of comprehensive and accurate seismicity catalogs and advances in computing for wave propagation and geodynamic modeling. Every subduction zone with sufficient intermediate-depth earthquakes (IDE) from a global teleseismic catalog is analyzed and the top of the IDE, presumably the top of the slab, is digitized. Subduction zones are separated into a total of 52 segments 500-km-long. Parameters such as dip, age, convergence velocity, and slab depth beneath arc volcanoes (H) are compiled, resulting in a comprehensive, complete suite of subduction zone descriptions. Surprisingly, H ranges from 70-190 km globally and varies smoothly between arc segments, even though most models and textbooks assume constant H for all arcs, placing new constraints on magma generation models at arcs. To assess regional biases in earthquake location due to large-scale structure, IDEs in each arc segment are relocated in a three-dimensional global velocity model. Although the absolute position of slab surfaces shifts 0-25 km regionally, global variations in H persist. These variations in geometry, as well as slab age, convergence velocity, sediments, the overlying plate, and the location of the transition from localized slip and distributed flow create a large range in the thermal states of subduction zones. Two dimensional thermal kinematic-flow models using these slab geometries for each 500-km segment indicate that slab crust and sediments dehydrate before reaching beneath the arc, whereas slab mantle may still be hydrated, for all slabs and a variety of assumptions. To test these inferences, a temporary array of seismographs was deployed in Central America, sampling the slab and sub-arc mantle. P and S arrival times were inverted for earthquake locations and high-resolution regional velocity structure. Hypocenters confirm high H here. The velocity models

  3. Seismicity as a guide to global tectonics and earthquake prediction.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sykes, L. R.

    1972-01-01

    From seismicity studies, evidence is presented for several aspects of plate-tectonic theory, including ideas of sea-floor spreading, transform faulting and underthrusting of the lithosphere in island arcs. Recent advances in seismic instrumentation, the use of computers in earthquake location, and the installation of local networks of instruments are shown to have vastly increased the data available for seismicity studies. It is pointed out that most of the world's earthquakes are located in very narrow zones along active plate margins and are intimately related to global processes in an extremely coherent manner. Important areas of uncertainty calling for further studies are also pointed out.

  4. Source Processes of Global Major Deep-focus Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Y.; Wen, L.

    2014-12-01

    Systematically studying source processes of global major deep-focus earthquakes provides a good opportunity to reveal the physics of deep-focus earthquakes. We apply a multiple point source inversion method based on waveform modeling of both direct P and SH waves and near-surface reflected pP and sSH waves. The method is used to study source processes of 29 deep-focus earthquakes from 1994 to 2013, with Mw > 7.0 and depth > 400 km. 26 of 29 deep-focus earthquakes can be modeled by our method reasonably well, using one to six point sources. The results are summarized as follow: (1) The 2013 Mw 8.3 Okhotsk and 1994 Mw 8.2 Bolivia earthquakes, the two largest ever-recorded earthquakes, have off-plane source distributions. The two earthquakes consist of several subevents distributed off a particular plane. (2) 16 of these earthquakes have subevents which could be distributed in a plane but with different fault plane orientations that are inconsistent with a rupture plane. Most of the variations of fault plane orientation are about 20˚, but some are up to 45˚. (3) A relatively uniform propagating velocity cannot be found for each earthquake. The subevents are randomly distributed in space and time. A triggering mechanism may be required to interpret the feature. The fast and slow triggering is uncorrelated with the cold and hot subduction slab. (4) Most of these deep-focus consists of normal faults, however, thrust faults exist in two regions, north Tonga-Kermadec Slab and the junction of Japan slab and Mariana slab. We suggest that these deep-focus earthquakes have their subevents occurring in a pre-existing weak zone and, triggering each other.

  5. Improved Teleseismic Locations of Shallow Subduction Zone Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisrat, S. T.; Deshon, H. R.; Engdahl, E. R.; Bilek, S. L.

    2009-12-01

    Improved precision teleseismic earthquake locations in subduction zones are being used to better understand shallow megathrust frictional conditions and determine the global distribution of tsunami earthquakes. Most global teleseismic catalogs fail to accurately locate shallow subduction zone earthquakes, especially mid-magnitude events, leading to increased error in determining source time functions useful for identifying tsunami earthquakes. The Engdahl, van der Hilst and Buland (EHB) method had addressed this problem in part by including the teleseismic depth phases pP, pwP and sP in the relocation algorithm. The EHB catalog relies on phase times reported to the ISC and NEIC, but additional high quality depth phase onsets can be incorporated in the relocation procedure to enhance the robustness of individual locations. We present improvements to an automated frequency-based picker that identifies depth phases not reported in the standard catalogs. The revised autopicker uses abrupt amplitude changes of the power spectral density (PSD) function calculated at optimized frequencies for each waveform. It is being used to pick onsets for P and depth phases pP, pwP or sP for inclusion in the EHB phase catalog. In the case of events with an emergent P-wave onset or with a complex waveform consisting of sub-events, the autopicker may either overlook a relatively small change in frequency of the first arrival or misidentify the onset arrival time of associated later arrivals, leading to erroneous results. We track those waveforms by comparing the difference of the P-wave arrival time from ISC/NEIC and the autopicker. The phase arrivals can then be adjusted manually as they usually make up a few percent of the whole data. Epicentral changes following relocation using additional depth phases are generally small (<5 km). Changes in depth may be on the order of 10s of km for some events, though the standard deviation of depth changes within each subduction zone is ~5 km. We

  6. The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and Model • Global Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation Model • Global Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic

  7. A New Global Classification of Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costain, J. K.; Bollinger, G.

    2010-12-01

    Virtually all naturally-occurring earthquakes fall into one of just two categories: 1) those associated with the dynamics of plate tectonics, or 2) those associated with the elements of the hydrologic cycle ("Hydroseismicity"). Category 1 includes interplate earthquakes triggered by interactions between moving tectonic plates of the Earth. Category 2 includes intraplate and plate-marginal earthquakes triggered in an SOC (self-organized crust) by pore-fluid pressure diffusion associated with rainfall, water-table and reservoir fluctuations, and hurricanes or typhoons. Newly-compiled results from 30 worldwide studies of earthquake-rainfall correlations published over the past 22 years and conducted in both intraplate and plate-marginal environments on five continents provide strong support for Category 2. Many if not most "slow earthquakes" also belong in this category and are a manifestation of pore-fluid pressure diffusion as predicted by Biot's remarkable theory, which describes a slow dilatational wave of pure pore-fluid pressure diffusion in a fluid-saturated porous medium and is characterized by severe attenuation and slow speed (days or months). Liu and others (2009) showed that slow earthquakes in an intraplate setting can be triggered by typhoons. Costain (2008) suggested that the timing of three relatively large intraplate earthquakes in Virginia and West Virginia with respect to hurricanes Camille (1969) and Agnes (1972), together with inferred values of crustal hydraulic diffusivity, was consistent with a causal relationship between the hurricanes and the earthquakes. Thus, recognition of just two categories of naturally-occurring earthquakes allows for a simple global division of seismicity.

  8. A graph theoretic approach to global earthquake sequencing: A Markov chain model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasudevan, K.; Cavers, M. S.

    2012-12-01

    We construct a directed graph to represent a Markov chain of global earthquake sequences and analyze the statistics of transition probabilities linked to earthquake zones. For earthquake zonation, we consider the simplified plate boundary template of Kagan, Bird, and Jackson (KBJ template, 2010). We demonstrate the applicability of the directed graph approach to hazard-related forecasting using some of the properties of graphs that represent the finite Markov chain. We extend the present study to consider Bird's 52-plate zonation (2003) describing the global earthquakes at and within plate boundaries to gain further insight into the usefulness of digraphs corresponding to a Markov chain model.

  9. The link between great earthquakes and the subduction of oceanic fracture zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, R. D.; Landgrebe, T. C. W.

    2012-09-01

    Giant subduction earthquakes are known to occur in areas not previously identified as prone to high seismic risk. This highlights the need to better identify subduction zone segments potentially dominated by relatively long (up to 1000 yr and more) recurrence times of giant earthquakes. We construct a model for the geometry of subduction coupling zones and combine it with global geophysical data sets to demonstrate that the occurrence of great (magnitude ≥ 8) subduction earthquakes is strongly biased towards regions associated with intersections of oceanic fracture zones and subduction zones. We use a computational recommendation technology, a type of information filtering system technique widely used in searching, sorting, classifying, and filtering very large, statistically skewed data sets on the internet, to demonstrate a robust association and rule out a random effect. Fracture zone-subduction zone intersection regions, representing only 25% of the global subduction coupling zone, are linked with 13 of the 15 largest (magnitude (Mw ≥ 8.6) and half of the 50 largest, magnitude ≥ 8.4) earthquakes. In contrast, subducting volcanic ridges and chains are only biased towards smaller earthquakes (magnitude < 8). The associations captured by our statistical analysis can be conceptually related to physical differences between subducting fracture zones and volcanic chains/ridges. Fracture zones are characterized by laterally continuous, uplifted ridges that represent normal ocean crust with a high degree of structural integrity, causing strong, persistent coupling in the subduction interface. Smaller volcanic ridges and chains, not have a relatively fragile heterogeneous internal structure and are separated from the underlying ocean crust by a detachment interface, resulting in weak coupling and relatively small earthquakes, explaining the observed dichotomy.

  10. The link between great earthquakes and the subduction of oceanic fracture zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, R. D.; Landgrebe, T. C. W.

    2012-12-01

    Giant subduction earthquakes are known to occur in areas not previously identified as prone to high seismic risk. This highlights the need to better identify subduction zone segments potentially dominated by relatively long (up to 1000 yr and more) recurrence times of giant earthquakes. We construct a model for the geometry of subduction coupling zones and combine it with global geophysical data sets to demonstrate that the occurrence of great (magnitude ≥ 8) subduction earthquakes is strongly biased towards regions associated with intersections of oceanic fracture zones and subduction zones. We use a computational recommendation technology, a type of information filtering system technique widely used in searching, sorting, classifying, and filtering very large, statistically skewed data sets on the Internet, to demonstrate a robust association and rule out a random effect. Fracture zone-subduction zone intersection regions, representing only 25% of the global subduction coupling zone, are linked with 13 of the 15 largest (magnitude Mw ≥ 8.6) and half of the 50 largest (magnitude Mw ≥ 8.4) earthquakes. In contrast, subducting volcanic ridges and chains are only biased towards smaller earthquakes (magnitude < 8). The associations captured by our statistical analysis can be conceptually related to physical differences between subducting fracture zones and volcanic chains/ridges. Fracture zones are characterised by laterally continuous, uplifted ridges that represent normal ocean crust with a high degree of structural integrity, causing strong, persistent coupling in the subduction interface. Smaller volcanic ridges and chains have a relatively fragile heterogeneous internal structure and are separated from the underlying ocean crust by a detachment interface, resulting in weak coupling and relatively small earthquakes, providing a conceptual basis for the observed dichotomy.

  11. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  12. Studying geodesy and earthquake hazard in and around the New Madrid Seismic Zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyd, Oliver Salz; Magistrale, Harold

    2011-01-01

    Workshop on New Madrid Geodesy and the Challenges of Understanding Intraplate Earthquakes; Norwood, Massachusetts, 4 March 2011 Twenty-six researchers gathered for a workshop sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and FM Global to discuss geodesy in and around the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and its relation to earthquake hazards. The group addressed the challenge of reconciling current geodetic measurements, which show low present-day surface strain rates, with paleoseismic evidence of recent, relatively frequent, major earthquakes in the region. The workshop presentations and conclusions will be available in a forthcoming USGS open-file report (http://pubs.usgs.gov).

  13. Studying geodesy and earthquake hazard in and around the New Madrid Seismic Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boyd, Oliver Salz; Magistrale, Harold

    2011-09-01

    Workshop on New Madrid Geodesy and the Challenges of Understanding Intraplate Earthquakes; Norwood, Massachusetts, 4 March 2011Twenty-six researchers gathered for a workshop sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and FM Global to discuss geodesy in and around the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and its relation to earthquake hazards. The group addressed the challenge of reconciling current geodetic measurements, which show low present-day surface strain rates, with paleoseismic evidence of recent, relatively frequent, major earthquakes in the region. The workshop presentations and conclusions will be available in a forthcoming USGS open-file report (http://pubs.usgs.gov).

  14. Testing mechanisms of subduction zone segmentation and seismogenesis with slip distributions from recent Andean earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loveless, J. P.; Pritchard, M. E.; Kukowski, N.

    2010-11-01

    A long-standing goal of subduction zone earthquake studies is to determine whether or not there are physical processes that control seismogenesis and the along-strike segmentation of the megathrust. Studies of individual earthquakes and global compilations of earthquakes find favorable comparison between coseismic interplate slip distributions and several different long-lived forearc characteristics, such as bathymetry, coastline morphology, crustal structure, and interplate frictional properties, but no single explanation seems to govern the location and slip distribution of all earthquakes. One possible reason for the lack of a unifying explanation is that the inferred earthquake parameters, most importantly the slip distribution, calculated in some areas were inaccurate, blurring correlation between earthquake and physical parameters. In this paper, we seek to test this possibility by comparing accurate slip distributions constrained by multiple datasets along several segments of a single subduction zone with the various physical properties that have been proposed to control or correlate with seismogenesis. We examine the rupture area and slip distribution of 6 recent and historical large ( Mw > 7) earthquakes on the Peru-northern Chile subduction zone. This analysis includes a new slip distribution of the 14 November 2007 Mw = 7.7 earthquake offshore Tocopilla, Chile constrained by teleseismic body wave and InSAR data. In studying the 6 events, we find that no single mechanism can explain the location or extent of rupture of all earthquakes, but analysis of the forearc gravity field and its gradients shows correlation with many of the observed slip patterns, as suggested by previous studies. Additionally, large-scale morphological features including the Nazca Ridge, Arica Bend, Mejillones Peninsula, and transverse crustal fault systems serve as boundaries between distinct earthquake segments.

  15. Subduction zone earthquakes and stress in slabs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vassiliou, M. S.; Hager, B. H.

    1988-01-01

    Simple viscous fluid models of subducting slabs are used to explain observations of the distribution of earthquakes as a function of depth and the orientation of stress axes of deep (greater than 300 km) and intermediate (70-300 km) earthquakes. Results suggest the following features in the distribution of earthquakes with depth: (1) an exponential decrease from shallow depths down to 250 to 300 km, (2) a minimum near 250 to 300 km, and (3) a deep peak below 300 km. Many shallow subducting slabs show only the first characteristic, while deeper extending regions tend to show all three features, with the deep peak varying in position and intensity. These data, combined with the results on the stress orientations of various-depth earthquakes, are consistent with the existence of a barrier of some sort at 670-km depth and a uniform viscosity mantle above this barrier.

  16. Periodic slow slip triggers megathrust zone earthquakes in northeastern Japan.

    PubMed

    Uchida, Naoki; Iinuma, Takeshi; Nadeau, Robert M; Bürgmann, Roland; Hino, Ryota

    2016-01-29

    Both aseismic and seismic slip accommodate relative motion across partially coupled plate-boundary faults. In northeastern Japan, aseismic slip occurs in the form of decelerating afterslip after large interplate earthquakes and as relatively steady slip on uncoupled areas of the subduction thrust. Here we report on a previously unrecognized quasi-periodic slow-slip behavior that is widespread in the megathrust zone. The repeat intervals of the slow slip range from 1 to 6 years and often coincide with or precede clusters of large [magnitude (M) ≥ 5] earthquakes, including the 2011 M 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake. These results suggest that inherently periodic slow-slip events result in periodic stress perturbations and modulate the occurrence time of larger earthquakes. The periodicity in the slow-slip rate has the potential to help refine time-dependent earthquake forecasts. PMID:26823425

  17. Dynamic triggering of low magnitude earthquakes in the Middle American Subduction Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Escudero, C. R.; Velasco, A. A.

    2010-12-01

    We analyze global and Middle American Subduction Zone (MASZ) seismicity from 1998 to 2008 to quantify the transient stresses effects at teleseismic distances. We use the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre Catalog (ISCCD) published by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). To identify MASZ seismicity changes due to distant, large (Mw >7) earthquakes, we first identify local earthquakes that occurred before and after the mainshocks. We then group the local earthquakes within a cluster radius between 75 to 200 km. We obtain statistics based on characteristics of both mainshocks and local earthquakes clusters, such as local cluster-mainshock azimuth, mainshock focal mechanism, and local earthquakes clusters within the MASZ. Due to lateral variations of the dip along the subducted oceanic plate, we divide the Mexican subduction zone in four segments. We then apply the Paired Samples Statistical Test (PSST) to the sorted data to identify increment, decrement or either in the local seismicity associated with distant large earthquakes. We identify dynamic triggering for all MASZ segments produced by large earthquakes emerging from specific azimuths, as well as, a decrease for some cases. We find no depend of seismicity changes due to focal mainshock mechanism.

  18. Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Bird, P.; Jackson, D. D.

    2010-06-01

    We extend existing branching models for earthquake occurrences by incorporating potentially important estimates of tectonic deformation and by allowing the parameters in the models to vary across different tectonic regimes. We partition the Earth’s surface into five regimes: trenches (including subduction zones and oceanic convergent boundaries and earthquakes in outer rise or overriding plate); fast spreading ridges and oceanic transforms; slow spreading ridges and transforms; active continental zones, and plate interiors (everything not included in the previous categories). Our purpose is to specialize the models to give them the greatest possible predictive power for use in earthquake forecasts. We expected the parameters of the branching models to be significantly different in the various tectonic regimes, because earlier studies ( Bird and Kagan in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):2380-2399, 2004) found that the magnitude limits and other parameters differed between similar categories. We compiled subsets of the CMT and PDE earthquake catalogs corresponding to each tectonic regime, and optimized the parameters for each, and for the whole Earth, using a maximum likelihood procedure. We also analyzed branching models for California and Nevada using regional catalogs. Our estimates of parameters that can be compared to those of other models were consistent with published results. Examples include the proportion of triggered earthquakes and the exponent describing the temporal decay of triggered earthquakes. We also estimated epicentral location uncertainty and rupture zone size and our results are consistent with independent estimates. Contrary to our expectation, we found no dramatic differences in the branching parameters for the various tectonic regimes. We did find some modest differences between regimes that were robust under changes in earthquake catalog and lower magnitude threshold. Subduction zones have the highest earthquake rates, the largest upper

  19. 2010 Maule earthquake slip correlates with pre-seismic locking of Andean subduction zone.

    PubMed

    Moreno, Marcos; Rosenau, Matthias; Oncken, Onno

    2010-09-01

    The magnitude-8.8 Maule (Chile) earthquake of 27 February 2010 ruptured a segment of the Andean subduction zone megathrust that has been suspected to be of high seismic potential. It is the largest earthquake to rupture a mature seismic gap in a subduction zone that has been monitored with a dense space-geodetic network before the event. This provides an image of the pre-seismically locked state of the plate interface of unprecedentedly high resolution, allowing for an assessment of the spatial correlation of interseismic locking with coseismic slip. Pre-seismic locking might be used to anticipate future ruptures in many seismic gaps, given the fundamental assumption that locking and slip are similar. This hypothesis, however, could not be tested without the occurrence of the first gap-filling earthquake. Here we show evidence that the 2010 Maule earthquake slip distribution correlates closely with the patchwork of interseismic locking distribution as derived by inversion of global positioning system (GPS) observations during the previous decade. The earthquake nucleated in a region of high locking gradient and released most of the stresses accumulated in the area since the last major event in 1835. Two regions of high seismic slip (asperities) appeared to be nearly fully locked before the earthquake. Between these asperities, the rupture bridged a zone that was creeping interseismically with consistently low coseismic slip. The rupture stopped in areas that were highly locked before the earthquake but where pre-stress had been significantly reduced by overlapping twentieth-century earthquakes. Our work suggests that coseismic slip heterogeneity at the scale of single asperities should indicate the seismic potential of future great earthquakes, which thus might be anticipated by geodetic observations. PMID:20829792

  20. Rupture Zones of Strong Earthquakes In The Corinth Rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, G. A.; Kouskouna, V.; Plessa, A.

    Ruptures zones of the strong (M 8805; 6) earthquakes that occurred in the Corinth rift in the last three hundred years have been determined on the basis of aftershock epi- central distributions , intensity distributions and observations regarding seismogenic ground failures and tsunamis. The space U time distribution of the rupture zones indi- cates that (1) for time intervals of about 50yrs the rupture zones do not overlap; over- alpping appear, however, in longer time intervals , (2) there is a trend of the seismic activity to decrease westwards , and (3) particular regions constitute potential seis- mic gaps , like the Kiato UXylocastro region in the south coast of the Corinth Gulf, where the large 1402 earthquake occurred, and the Livadia U Desfina region where the A.D.361 and 551 large earthquakes possibly took place.

  1. Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2010-06-01

    We present a simple method for long- and short-term earthquake forecasting (estimating earthquake rate per unit area, time, and magnitude). For illustration we apply the method to the Pacific plate boundary region and the Mediterranean area surrounding Italy and Greece. Our ultimate goal is to develop forecasting and testing methods to validate or falsify common assumptions regarding earthquake potential. Our immediate purpose is to extend the forecasts we made starting in 1999 for the northwest and southwest Pacific to include somewhat smaller earthquakes and then adapt the methods to apply in other areas. The previous forecasts used the CMT earthquake catalog to forecast magnitude 5.8 and larger earthquakes. Like our previous forecasts, the new ones here are based on smoothed maps of past seismicity and assume spatial clustering. Our short-term forecasts also assume temporal clustering. An important adaptation in the new forecasts is to abandon the use of tensor focal mechanisms. This permits use of earthquake catalogs that reliably report many smaller quakes with no such mechanism estimates. The result is that we can forecast earthquakes at higher spatial resolution and down to a magnitude threshold of 4.7. The new forecasts can be tested far more quickly because smaller events are considerably more frequent. Also, our previous method used the focal mechanisms of past earthquakes to estimate the preferred directions of earthquake clustering, however the method made assumptions that generally hold in subduction zones only. The new approach escapes those assumptions. In the northwest Pacific the new method gives estimated earthquake rate density very similar to that of the previous forecast.

  2. Radiocarbon test of earthquake magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Atwater, B.F.; Stuiver, M.; Yamaguchi, D.K.

    1991-01-01

    THE Cascadia subduction zone, which extends along the northern Pacific coast of North America, might produce earthquakes of magnitude 8 or 9 ('great' earthquakes) even though it has not done so during the past 200 years of European observation 1-7. Much of the evidence for past Cascadia earthquakes comes from former meadows and forests that became tidal mudflats owing to abrupt tectonic subsidence in the past 5,000 years2,3,6,7. If due to a great earthquake, such subsidence should have extended along more than 100 km of the coast2. Here we investigate the extent of coastal subsidence that might have been caused by a single earthquake, through high-precision radiocarbon dating of coastal trees that abruptly subsided into the intertidal zone. The ages leave the great-earthquake hypothesis intact by limiting to a few decades the discordance, if any, in the most recent subsidence of two areas 55 km apart along the Washington coast. This subsidence probably occurred about 300 years ago.

  3. Investigation of the TEC Changes in the vicinity of the Earthquake Preparation Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulukavak, Mustafa; Yalcinkaya, Mualla

    2016-04-01

    Recently, investigation of the anomalies in the ionosphere before the earthquake has taken too much attention. The Total Electron Content (TEC) data has been used to monitor the changes in the ionosphere. Hence, researchers use the TEC changes before the strong earthquakes to monitor the anomalies in the ionosphere. In this study, the GPS-TEC variations, obtained from the GNSS stations in the vicinity of the earthquake preparation zone, was investigated. Nidra earthquake (M6.5), which was occurred on the north-west of Greece on November 17th, 2015 (38.755°N, 20.552°E), was selected for this study. First, the equation proposed by Dobrovolsky et al. (1979) was used to calculate the radius of the earthquake preparation zone. International GNSS Service (IGS) stations in the region were classified with respect to the radius of the earthquake preparation zone. The observation data of each station was obtained from the Crustal Dynamics Data and Information System (CDDIS) archive to estimate GPS-TEC variations between 16 October 2015 and 16 December 2015. Global Ionosphere Maps (GIM) products, obtained from the IGS, was used to check the robustness of the GPS-TEC variations. Possible anomalies were analyzed for each GNSS station by using the 15-day moving median method. In order to analyze these pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies, we investigated three indices (Kp, F10.7 and Dst) related to the space weather conditions between 16 October 2015 and 16 December 2015. Solar and geomagnetic indices were obtained from The Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), The Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre (CSWFC), and the Data Analysis Center for Geomagnetism and Space Magnetism Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University (WDC). This study aims at investigating the possible effects of the earthquake on the TEC variations.

  4. Apparent stress, fault maturity and seismic hazard for normal-fault earthquakes at subduction zones

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Choy, G.L.; Kirby, S.H.

    2004-01-01

    The behavior of apparent stress for normal-fault earthquakes at subduction zones is derived by examining the apparent stress (?? a = ??Es/Mo, where E s is radiated energy and Mo is seismic moment) of all globally distributed shallow (depth, ?? 1 MPa) are also generally intraslab, but occur where the lithosphere has just begun subduction beneath the overriding plate. They usually occur in cold slabs near trenches where the direction of plate motion across the trench is oblique to the trench axis, or where there are local contortions or geometrical complexities of the plate boundary. Lower ??a (< 1 MPa) is associated with events occurring at the outer rise (OR) complex (between the OR and the trench axis), as well as with intracrustal events occurring just landward of the trench. The average apparent stress of intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes is considerably higher than the average apparent stress of interplate-thrust-fault earthquakes. In turn, the average ?? a of strike-slip earthquakes in intraoceanic environments is considerably higher than that of intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes. The variation of average ??a with focal mechanism and tectonic regime suggests that the level of ?? a is related to fault maturity. Lower stress drops are needed to rupture mature faults such as those found at plate interfaces that have been smoothed by large cumulative displacements (from hundreds to thousands of kilometres). In contrast, immature faults, such as those on which intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes generally occur, are found in cold and intact lithosphere in which total fault displacement has been much less (from hundreds of metres to a few kilometres). Also, faults on which high ??a oceanic strike-slip earthquakes occur are predominantly intraplate or at evolving ends of transforms. At subduction zones, earthquakes occurring on immature faults are likely to be more hazardous as they tend to generate higher amounts of radiated energy per unit of moment than

  5. Large earthquake processes in the northern Vanuatu subduction zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleveland, K. Michael; Ammon, Charles J.; Lay, Thorne

    2014-12-01

    The northern Vanuatu (formerly New Hebrides) subduction zone (11°S to 14°S) has experienced large shallow thrust earthquakes with Mw > 7 in 1966 (MS 7.9, 7.3), 1980 (Mw 7.5, 7.7), 1997 (Mw 7.7), 2009 (Mw 7.7, 7.8, 7.4), and 2013 (Mw 8.0). We analyze seismic data from the latter four earthquake sequences to quantify the rupture processes of these large earthquakes. The 7 October 2009 earthquakes occurred in close spatial proximity over about 1 h in the same region as the July 1980 doublet. Both sequences activated widespread seismicity along the northern Vanuatu subduction zone. The focal mechanisms indicate interplate thrusting, but there are differences in waveforms that establish that the events are not exact repeats. With an epicenter near the 1980 and 2009 events, the 1997 earthquake appears to have been a shallow intraslab rupture below the megathrust, with strong southward directivity favoring a steeply dipping plane. Some triggered interplate thrusting events occurred as part of this sequence. The 1966 doublet ruptured north of the 1980 and 2009 events and also produced widespread aftershock activity. The 2013 earthquake rupture propagated southward from the northern corner of the trench with shallow slip that generated a substantial tsunami. The repeated occurrence of large earthquake doublets along the northern Vanuatu subduction zone is remarkable considering the doublets likely involved overlapping, yet different combinations of asperities. The frequent occurrence of large doublet events and rapid aftershock expansion in this region indicate the presence of small, irregularly spaced asperities along the plate interface.

  6. Slip compensation at fault damage zones along earthquake surface ruptures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, J.; Kim, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Surface ruptures associated with earthquake faulting commonly comprise a number of segments, and the discontinuities form tip and linking damage zones, which are deformed regions consisting of secondary features. Stress transferring or releasing, when seismic waves pass through the discontinuities, could produce different slip features depending on rupture propagation or termination. Thus, slip patterns at fault damage zones can be one of the key factors to understand fault kinematics, fault evolution and, hence, earthquake hazard. In some previous studies (e.g. Peacock and Sanderson, 1991; Kim and Sanderson, 2005), slip distribution along faults to understand the connectivity or maturity of segmented faults system have commonly been analyzed based on only the main slip components (dip-slip or strike-slip). Secondary slip components, however, are sometimes dominant at fault damage zones, such as linkage and tip zones. In this study, therefore, we examine slip changes between both main and secondary slip components along unilaterally propagated coseismic strike-slip ruptures. Horizontal and vertical components of slip and the slip compensation patterns at tip and linking damage zones are various from slip deficit (decrease in both slip components) through slip compensation (increase of vertical slip with horizontal slip decrease) to slip neutral. Front and back tip zones, which are classified depending on main propagation direction of earthquake ruptures, show different slip patterns; slip compensation is observed at the frontal tip whilst slip deficit occurs at the back tip zone. Average values of the two slip components and their compensative patterns at linking damage zones are closely related with the ratio of length to width (L/W) of linkage geometry; the horizontal slip is proportional to the ratio of L/W, whilst the vertical slip shows little dependence on the value L/W. When the L/W is greater than ~2, average values of two slip components are almost similar

  7. Empirical relationships between instrumental ground motions and observed intensities for two great Chilean subduction zone earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cilia, M. G.; Baker, L. M.

    2015-12-01

    We determine empirical relationships between instrumental peak ground motions and observed intensities for two great Chilean subduction earthquakes: the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule earthquake and the 2014 Mw8.2 Iquique earthquake. Both occurred immediately offshore on the primary plate boundary interface between the Nazca and South America plates. They are among the largest earthquakes to be instrumentally recorded; the 2010 Maule event is the second largest earthquake to produce strong motion recordings. Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs) are used to reconstruct the distribution of shaking for historical earthquakes by using intensities estimated from contemporary accounts. Most great (M>8) earthquakes, like these, occur within subduction zones, yet few GMICEs exist for subduction earthquakes. It is unclear whether GMICEs developed for active crustal regions, such as California, can be scaled up to the large M of subduction zone events, or if new data sets must be analyzed to develop separate subduction GMICEs. To address this question, we pair instrumental peak ground motions, both acceleration (PGA) and velocity (PGV), with intensities derived from onsite surveys of earthquake damage made in the weeks after the events and internet-derived felt reports. We fit a linear predictive equation between the geometric mean of the maximum PGA or PGV of the two horizontal components and intensity, using linear least squares. We use a weighting scheme to express the uncertainty of the pairings based on a station's proximity to the nearest intensity observation. The intensity data derived from the onsite surveys is a complete, high-quality investigation of the earthquake damage. We perform the computations using both the survey data and community decimal intensities (CDI) calculated from felt reports volunteered by citizens (USGS "Did You Feel It", DYFI) and compare the results. We compare the GMICEs we developed to the most widely used GMICEs from California and

  8. Particle size and energetics of gouge from earthquake rupture zones.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Brent; Dewers, Thomas; Reches, Ze'ev; Brune, James

    2005-04-01

    Grain size reduction and gouge formation are found to be ubiquitous in brittle faults at all scales, and most slip along mature faults is observed to have been localized within gouge zones. This fine-grain gouge is thought to control earthquake instability, and thus understanding its properties is central to an understanding of the earthquake process. Here we show that gouge from the San Andreas fault, California, with approximately 160 km slip, and the rupture zone of a recent earthquake in a South African mine with only approximately 0.4 m slip, display similar characteristics, in that ultrafine grains approach the nanometre scale, gouge surface areas approach 80 m2 g(-1), and grain size distribution is non-fractal. These observations challenge the common perception that gouge texture is fractal and that gouge surface energy is a negligible contributor to the earthquake energy budget. We propose that the observed fine-grain gouge is not related to quasi-static cumulative slip, but is instead formed by dynamic rock pulverization during the propagation of a single earthquake. PMID:15815626

  9. Crustal earthquake triggering by modern great earthquakes on subduction zone thrusts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomberg, Joan; Sherrod, Brian

    2014-02-01

    Among the many questions raised by the recent abundance of great (M > 8.0) subduction thrust earthquakes is their potential to trigger damaging earthquakes on crustal faults within the overriding plate and beneath many of the world's densely populated urban centers. We take advantage of the coincident abundance of great earthquakes globally and instrumental observations since 1960 to assess this triggering potential by analyzing centroids and focal mechanisms from the centroid moment tensor catalog for events starting in 1976 and published reports about the M9.5 1960 Chile and M9.2 1964 Alaska earthquake sequences. We find clear increases in the rates of crustal earthquakes in the overriding plate within days following all subduction thrust earthquakes of M > 8.6, within about ±10° of the triggering event centroid latitude and longitude. This result is consistent with dynamic triggering of more distant increases of shallow seismicity rates at distances beyond ±10°, suggesting that dynamic triggering may be important within the near field too. Crustal earthquake rate increases may also follow smaller M > 7.5 subduction thrust events, but because activity typically occurs offshore in the immediately vicinity of the triggering rupture plane, it cannot be unambiguously attributed to sources within the overriding plate. These observations are easily explained in the context of existing earthquake scaling laws.

  10. Fault-Zone Maturity Defines Maximum Earthquake Magnitude: The case of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohnhoff, Marco; Bulut, Fatih; Stierle, Eva; Martinez-Garzon, Patricia; Benzion, Yehuda

    2015-04-01

    Estimating the maximum likely magnitude of future earthquakes on transform faults near large metropolitan areas has fundamental consequences for the expected hazard. Here we show that the maximum earthquakes on different sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) scale with the duration of fault zone activity, cumulative offset and length of individual fault segments. The findings are based on a compiled catalogue of historical earthquakes in the region, using the extensive literary sources that exist due to the long civilization record. We find that the largest earthquakes (M~8) are exclusively observed along the well-developed part of the fault zone in the east. In contrast, the western part is still in a juvenile or transitional stage with historical earthquakes not exceeding M=7.4. This limits the current seismic hazard to NW Turkey and its largest regional population and economical center Istanbul. Our findings for the NAFZ are consistent with data from the two other major transform faults, the San Andreas fault in California and the Dead Sea Transform in the Middle East. The results indicate that maximum earthquake magnitudes generally scale with fault-zone evolution.

  11. An Atlas of ShakeMaps for Selected Global Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Trevor I.; Wald, David J.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Lin, Kuo-Wan; Earle, Paul; Marano, Kristin D.

    2008-01-01

    An atlas of maps of peak ground motions and intensity 'ShakeMaps' has been developed for almost 5,000 recent and historical global earthquakes. These maps are produced using established ShakeMap methodology (Wald and others, 1999c; Wald and others, 2005) and constraints from macroseismic intensity data, instrumental ground motions, regional topographically-based site amplifications, and published earthquake-rupture models. Applying the ShakeMap methodology allows a consistent approach to combine point observations with ground-motion predictions to produce descriptions of peak ground motions and intensity for each event. We also calculate an estimated ground-motion uncertainty grid for each earthquake. The Atlas of ShakeMaps provides a consistent and quantitative description of the distribution and intensity of shaking for recent global earthquakes (1973-2007) as well as selected historic events. As such, the Atlas was developed specifically for calibrating global earthquake loss estimation methodologies to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) Project. PAGER will employ these loss models to rapidly estimate the impact of global earthquakes as part of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center's earthquake-response protocol. The development of the Atlas of ShakeMaps has also led to several key improvements to the Global ShakeMap system. The key upgrades include: addition of uncertainties in the ground motion mapping, introduction of modern ground-motion prediction equations, improved estimates of global seismic-site conditions (VS30), and improved definition of stable continental region polygons. Finally, we have merged all of the ShakeMaps in the Atlas to provide a global perspective of earthquake ground shaking for the past 35 years, allowing comparison with probabilistic hazard maps. The online Atlas and supporting databases can be found at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/shakemap/atlas.php/.

  12. Compiling the 'Global Earthquake History' (1000-1903)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albini, P.; Musson, R.; Locati, M.; Rovida, A.

    2013-12-01

    The study of historical earthquakes from historical sources, or historical seismology, is of wider interest than just the seismic hazard and risk community. In the scope of the two-year project (October 2010-March 2013) "Global Earthquake History", developed in the framework of GEM, a reassessment of world historical seismicity was made, from available published studies. The scope of the project is the time window 1000-1903, with magnitudes 7.0 and above. Events with lower magnitudes are included on a case by case, or region by region, basis. The Global Historical Earthquake Archive (GHEA) provides a complete account of the global situation in historical seismology. From GHEA, the Global Historical Earthquake Catalogue (GHEC, v1, available at http://www.emidius.eu/GEH/, under Creative Commons licence) was derived, i.e. a world catalogue of earthquakes for the period 1000-1903, with magnitude 7 and over, using publically-available materials, as for the Archive. This is intended to be the best global historical catalogue of large earthquakes presently available, with the best parameters selected, duplications and fakes removed, and in some cases, new earthquakes discovered. GHEA and GHEC are conceived as providing a basis for co-ordinating future research into historical seismology in any part of the world, and hopefully, encouraging new historical earthquake research initiatives that will continue to improve the information available.

  13. Source Mechanisms of Destructive Tsunamigenic Earthquakes occurred along the Major Subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay; Ulutaş, Ergin

    2016-04-01

    Subduction zones, where an oceanic plate is subducted down into the mantle by tectonic forces, are potential tsunami locations. Many big, destructive and tsunamigenic earthquakes (Mw > 7.5) and high amplitude tsunami waves are observed along the major subduction zones particularly near Indonesia, Japan, Kuril and Aleutan Islands, Gulf of Alaska, Southern America. Not all earthquakes are tsunamigenic; in order to generate a tsunami, the earthquake must occur under or near the ocean, be large, and create significant vertical movements of the seafloor. It is also known that tsunamigenic earthquakes release their energy over a couple of minutes, have long source time functions and slow-smooth ruptures. In this study, we performed point-source inversions by using teleseismic long-period P- and SH- and broad-band P-waveforms recorded by the Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) and the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) stations. We obtained source mechanism parameters and finite-fault slip distributions of recent destructive ten earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7.5) by comparing the shapes and amplitudes of long period P- and SH-waveforms, recorded in the distance range of 30° - 90°, with synthetic waveforms. We further obtained finite-fault rupture histories of those earthquakes to determine the faulting area (fault length and width), maximum displacement, rupture duration and stress drop. We applied a new back-projection method that uses teleseismic P-waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source, and customized it to estimate the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic energy release of earthquakes. Inversion results exhibit that recent tsunamigenic earthquakes show dominantly thrust faulting mechanisms with small amount of strike-slip components. Their focal depths are also relatively shallow (h < 40 km). As an example, the September 16, 2015 Illapel (Chile) earthquake (Mw: 8.3; h: 26 km

  14. Earthquakes, fluid pressures and rapid subduction zone metamorphism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viete, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    High-pressure/low-temperature (HP/LT) metamorphism is commonly incomplete, meaning that large tracts of rock can remain metastable at blueschist- and eclogite-facies conditions for timescales up to millions of years [1]. When HP/LT metamorphism does take place, it can occur over extremely short durations (<<1 Myr) [1-2]. HP/LT metamorphism must be associated with processes that allow large volumes of rock to remain unaffected over long periods of time, but then suddenly undergo localized metamorphism. Existing models for HP/LT metamorphism have focussed on the role of fluids in providing heat for metamorphism [2] or catalyzing metamorphic reactions [1]. Earthquakes in subduction zone settings can occur to depths of 100s of km. Metamorphic dehydration and the associated development of elevated pore pressures in HP/LT metamorphic rocks has been identified as a cause of earthquake activity at such great depths [3-4]. The process of fracturing/faulting significantly increases rock permeability, causing channelized fluid flow and dissipation of pore pressures [3-4]. Thus, deep subduction zone earthquakes are thought to reflect an evolution in fluid pressure, involving: (1) an initial increase in pore pressure by heating-related dehydration of subduction zone rocks, and (2) rapid relief of pore pressures by faulting and channelized flow. Models for earthquakes at depth in subduction zones have focussed on the in situ effects of dehydration and then sudden escape of fluids from the rock mass following fracturing [3-4]. On the other hand, existing models for rapid and incomplete metamorphism in subduction zones have focussed only on the effects of heating and/or hydration with the arrival of external fluids [1-2]. Significant changes in pressure over very short timescales should result in rapid mineral growth and/or disequilibrium texture development in response to overstepping of mineral reaction boundaries. The repeated process of dehydration-pore pressure development-earthquake

  15. Detection capability of global earthquakes influenced by large intermediate-depth and deep earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwata, T.

    2011-12-01

    This study examined the detection capability of the global CMT catalogue immediately after a large intermediate-depth (70 < depth ≤ 300 km) or deep (300 km < depth) earthquake. Iwata [2008, GJI] have revealed that the detection capability is remarkably lower than ordinary one for several hours after the occurrence of a large shallow (depth ≤ 70 km) earthquake. Since the global CMT catalogue plays an important role in studies on global earthquake forecasting or seismicity pattern [e.g., Kagan and Jackson, 2010, Pageoph], the characteristic of the catalogue should be investigated carefully. We stacked global shallow earthquake sequences, which are taken from the global CMT catalogue from 1977 to 2010, after a large intermediate-depth or deep earthquake. Then, we utilized a statistical model representing an observed magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes [e.g., Ringdal, 1975, BSSA; Ogata and Katsura, 1993, GJI]. The applied model is a product of the Gutenberg-Richter law and a detection rate function q(M). Following previous studies, the cumulative distribution of the normal distribution was used as q(M). This model enables us to estimate μ, the magnitude where the detection rate of earthquake is 50 per cent. Finally, a Bayesian approach with a piecewise linear approximation [Iwata, 2008, GJI] was applied to this stacked data to estimate the temporal change of μ. Consequently, we found a significantly lowered detection capability after a intermediate-depth or deep earthquake of which magnitude is 6.5 or larger. The lowered detection capability lasts for several hours or one-half day. During this period of low detection capability, a few per cent of M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes or a few tens percent of M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes are undetected in the global CMT catalogue while the magnitude completeness threshold of the catalogue was estimated to be around 5.5 [e.g., Kagan, 2003, PEPI].

  16. The Himalayan Seismogenic Zone: A New Frontier for Earthquake Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, Larry; Hubbard, Judith; Karplus, Marianne; Klemperer, Simon; Sato, Hiroshi

    2016-04-01

    The Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake that occurred on April 25 of this year was a dramatic reminder that great earthquakes are not restricted to the large seismogenic zones associated with subduction of oceanic lithosphere. Not only does Himalayan seismogenesis represents important scientific and societal issues in its own right, it constitutes a reference for evaluating general models of the earthquake cycle derived from the studies of the oceanic subduction systems. This presentation reports results of a Mini-Workshop sponsored by the GeoPrisms project that was held in conjunction with the American Geophysical Union on December 15, 2015, designed to organize a new initiative to study the great Himalaya earthquake machine. The Himalayan seismogenic zone shares with its oceanic counterparts a number of fundamental questions, including: a) What controls the updip and downdip limits of rupture? b) What controls the lateral segmentation of rupture zones (and hence magnitude)? c) What is the role of fluids in facilitating slip and or rupture? d) What nucleates rupture (e..g. asperities?)? e) What physical properties can be monitored as precursors to future events? f) How effectively can the radiation pattern of future events be modeled? g) How can a better understanding of Himalayan rupture be translated into more cost effective preparations for the next major event in this region? However the underthrusting of continental, as opposed to oceanic, lithosphere in the Himalayas frames these questions in a very different context: h) How does the greater thickness and weaker rheology of continental crust/lithosphere affect locking of the seismogenic zone? i) How does the different thermal structure of continental vs oceanic crust affect earthquake geodynamics? j) Are fluids a significant factor in intercontinental thrusting? k) How does the basement morphology of underthrust continental crust affect locking/creep, and how does it differ from the oceanic case? l) What is the

  17. Earthquake supercycle in subduction zones controlled by the downdip width of the seismogenic zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrendörfer, Robert; van Dinther, Ylona; Gerya, Taras; Dalguer, Luis Angel

    2015-04-01

    Supercycles describe a long-term cluster of megathrust earthquakes that consist of partial ruptures before a complete failure of a subduction zone segment (Sieh et al. 2008, Goldfinger et al. 2013). The controls on supercycles remain unclear, although structural or fault frictional heterogeneities were proposed (Sieh et al. 2008). We recognize that supercycles have been suggested in those subduction zones (Sieh et al. 2008, Goldfinger et al. 2013, Metois et al. 2014, Chlieh et al. 2014) for which the seismogenic zone downdip width is estimated (Heuret et al. 2011, Hayes et al. 2012, Hayes et al. 2013) to be larger than average. Here we assess this potential link between the seismogenic zone downdip width and supercycles. For this purpose we use the continuum-based seismo-mechanical model of megathrust earthquake cycles in subduction zones (Van Dinther et al. 2013), which was validated through a comparison against scaled analogue subduction experiments (Corbi et al. 2013). The two-dimensional numerical model setup consists of a visco-elastic wedge underthrusted by a rigid plate and a frictional boundary layer simulating the megathrust. In this boundary layer, we evaluate a non-associative Drucker-Prager plasticity with pressure dependent yield strength and a strongly rate-dependent friction formulation. The velocity-weakening seismogenic zone with a downdip width W is limited up-and downdip by velocity-strengthening regions. In our numerical models, an increasing seismogenic zone downdip width leads to a transition from ordinary cycles of similar sized complete ruptures to supercycles. For supercycles in wide seismogenic zones, we demonstrate how interseismic deformation accompanied by partial ruptures effectively increases the stress throughout the seismogenic zone until a crack-like superevent releases most of the accumulated stresses. Our findings suggest that supercycles are more likely to occur in subduction zones with a large seismogenic downdip width due to a

  18. Statistical characteristics of seismo-ionospheric GPS TEC disturbances prior to global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes (1998-2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, Munawar; Jin, Shuanggen

    2015-12-01

    Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies are still challenging and unclear to obtain and understand, particularly for different earthquake magnitudes and focal depths as well as types of fault. In this paper, the seismo-ionospheric disturbances (SID) related to global earthquakes with 1492 Mw ≥ 5.0 from 1998 to 2014 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) of GPS global ionosphere maps (GIM). Statistical analysis of 10-day TEC data before global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes shows significant enhancement 5 days before an earthquake of Mw ≥ 6.0 at a 95% confidence level. Earthquakes with a focal depth of less than 60 km and Mw ≥ 6.0 are presumably the root of deviation in the ionospheric TEC because earthquake breeding zones have gigantic quantities of energy at shallower focal depths. Increased anomalous TEC is recorded in cumulative percentages beyond Mw = 5.5. Sharpness in cumulative percentages is evident in seismo-ionospheric disturbance prior to Mw ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Seismo-ionospheric disturbances related to strike slip and thrust earthquakes are noticeable for magnitude Mw6.0-7.0 earthquakes. The relative values reveal high ratios (up to 2) and low ratios (up to -0.5) within 5 days prior to global earthquakes for positive and negative anomalies. The anomalous patterns in TEC related to earthquakes are possibly due to the coupling of high amounts of energy from earthquake breeding zones of higher magnitude and shallower focal depth.

  19. Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frankel, A.D.; Applegate, D.; Tuttle, M.P.; Williams, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    There is broad agreement in the scientific community that a continuing concern exists for a major destructive earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone. Many structures in Memphis, Tenn., St. Louis, Mo., and other communities in the central Mississippi River Valley region are vulnerable and at risk from severe ground shaking. This assessment is based on decades of research on New Madrid earthquakes and related phenomena by dozens of Federal, university, State, and consulting earth scientists. Considerable interest has developed recently from media reports that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down. These reports stem from published research using global positioning system (GPS) instruments with results of geodetic measurements of strain in the Earth's crust. Because of a lack of measurable strain at the surface in some areas of the seismic zone over the past 14 years, arguments have been advanced that there is no buildup of stress at depth within the New Madrid seismic zone and that the zone may no longer pose a significant hazard. As part of the consensus-building process used to develop the national seismic hazard maps, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop of experts in 2006 to evaluate the latest findings in earthquake hazards in the Eastern United States. These experts considered the GPS data from New Madrid available at that time that also showed little to no ground movement at the surface. The experts did not find the GPS data to be a convincing reason to lower the assessment of earthquake hazard in the New Madrid region, especially in light of the many other types of data that are used to construct the hazard assessment, several of which are described here.

  20. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased

    PubMed Central

    Shearer, Peter M.; Stark, Philip B.

    2012-01-01

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences—if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past. PMID:22184228

  1. Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    So, Emily; Spence, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

  2. Stress Conditions at the Subduction Zone Inferred from Differential Earthquake Magnitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choy, G. L.; Kirby, S. H.

    2011-12-01

    Moment magnitude MW and energy magnitude Me describe physically different aspects of the size of an earthquake. Me, being derived from radiated energy ES, is a measure of the seismic potential for damage. MW, being derived from seismic moment Mo, is a measure of the final static displacement of an earthquake. We examine the systematics of thrust earthquakes across the subduction zone environment by deriving differential magnitudes Delta M, where Delta M = Me - MW, of more than 1700 large shallow earthquakes (depth < 70km) that occurred from 1987 to 2010. Although Me may vary by as much as 1 magnitude unit for any given MW, the scatter is not random. Most subduction thrust earthquakes located within a narrow zone at the top surface of the Wadati-Benioff zone (which are interpreted as events on the slab interface) have Delta M < -0.30, a value much lower than the global average of -0.17. Of these interface events, the subset of large earthquakes (MW > 7.0) with anomalously low energy radiation (i.e., Delta M < 0.50) has been associated with the class of tsunamigenic events known as slow earthquakes. However, anomalously low radiated energy was also found for more than 308 earthquakes that had smaller magnitudes (MW < 7.0). The locations of these low-energy earthquakes do not correlate with locations of known slow tsunami earthquakes. On the other hand, anomalously high energy radiation (where Delta M>0.0) was found in 163 thrust events (only 12% of all subduction events). These earthquakes typically occur in high deformation zones that are intraslab, intracrustal or downdip of obliquely convergent plate boundaries. Of these high-energy events, a subset of intraslab events was found that caused local tsunami wave heights. Apparent stress taua can be related to differential magnitude by Delta M = (2/3) [ log(taua/mu) + 4.7] with mu being shear modulus. As specific tectonic settings seem to have characteristic differential magnitude, the relative stress conditions can

  3. Characteristic and Uncharacteristic Earthquakes as Possible Artifacts: Applied to the New Madrid and Wabash Seismic Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S.; Newman, A. V.

    2003-12-01

    Generally, the largest events, characteristic earthquakes (CE), appear more often than expected from the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Whether this effect is real or apparent is an interesting question since apparent differences can arise from several possible situations. If the known history is shorter than or comparable to the recurrence time of largest events, apparent CEs can occur because sampling bias allows anomalous short recurrence to be observed more frequently (fractions of earthquakes cannot be observed). Alternatively, apparent CEs can occur if paleoseismic data overstimate magnitudes or underestimate recurrence. In the New Madrid Zone (NMSZ), simulations suggest that because the 2000 year paleoseismic record is 4x the accepted recurrence for CEs, there is a small probability of observing apparent CEs. A more significant effect is that paleoliquifaction data regionally appear to overestimate magnitudes. It is commonly assumed that the distribution of liquifaction, used for paleomagnitudes, near the NMSZ is smaller that seen globally. Liquefaction features extending 250 km from an earthquake in the NMSZ are interpreted as evidence for an M 8.3 event, rather than an M 7.6 as would be inferred from the global curve. This practice arose because the curve was calibrated assuming an M 8.3 for the 1811-12 events whereas more recent analysis finds M ˜7.4. Hence either the largest earthquakes are CEs or the paleoevents were smaller than those in 1811-12. The opposite effect occurs in the Wabash Valley Seismic zone, where the paleoearthquakes appear ``uncharacteristic'', less frequent than would be inferred from instrumental seismicity. The paleoseismic record is long enough that the discrepancy is unlikely to be a sampling artifact. Hence either the uncharacteristic behavior is real, or the paleoseismic record captures only a small fraction of the large preinstrumental earthquakes.

  4. Characterizing Mega-Earthquake Related Tsunami on Subduction Zones without Large Historical Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, C. R.; Lee, R.; Astill, S.; Farahani, R.; Wilson, P. S.; Mohammed, F.

    2014-12-01

    Due to recent large tsunami events (e.g., Chile 2010 and Japan 2011), the insurance industry is very aware of the importance of managing its exposure to tsunami risk. There are currently few tools available to help establish policies for managing and pricing tsunami risk globally. As a starting point and to help address this issue, Risk Management Solutions Inc. (RMS) is developing a global suite of tsunami inundation footprints. This dataset will include both representations of historical events as well as a series of M9 scenarios on subductions zones that have not historical generated mega earthquakes. The latter set is included to address concerns about the completeness of the historical record for mega earthquakes. This concern stems from the fact that the Tohoku Japan earthquake was considerably larger than had been observed in the historical record. Characterizing the source and rupture pattern for the subduction zones without historical events is a poorly constrained process. In many case, the subduction zones can be segmented based on changes in the characteristics of the subducting slab or major ridge systems. For this project, the unit sources from the NOAA propagation database are utilized to leverage the basin wide modeling included in this dataset. The length of the rupture is characterized based on subduction zone segmentation and the slip per unit source can be determined based on the event magnitude (i.e., M9) and moment balancing. As these events have not occurred historically, there is little to constrain the slip distribution. Sensitivity tests on the potential rupture pattern have been undertaken comparing uniform slip to higher shallow slip and tapered slip models. Subduction zones examined include the Makran Trench, the Lesser Antilles and the Hikurangi Trench. The ultimate goal is to create a series of tsunami footprints to help insurers understand their exposures at risk to tsunami inundation around the world.

  5. Constraints on Subduction Zone Processes from Low Frequency Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bostock, M. G.

    2015-12-01

    The discovery of tectonic tremor and constituent low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) offers seismologists new opportunities to study both deformational processes and structure within the subduction zone forearc. This assertion is especially true for northern Cascadia where i) regular seismicity is sparse, and ii) a relatively transparent overriding plate inflicts minimal distortion upon direct P and S wave arrivals from LFEs. Despite low signal-to-noise ratios, LFEs are highly repetitive and signal can be enhanced through construction of stacked templates. Studies in both Cascadia and Nankai reveal an association between LFE hypocenters and a high Vp/Vs, low-velocity zone (LVZ) that is inferred to represent overpressured upper oceanic crust. Scattered signals within Vancouver Island templates, interpreted to originate at boundaries of the LVZ, place LFEs within the LVZ and suggest that this structure may define a distributed (several km) zone of deformation. A recent analysis of LFE magnitudes indicates that LFEs exhibit scaling relations distinct from both regular earthquakes and longer period (10's of seconds to days) phenomena associated with slow slip. Regular earthquakes generally obey a scaling of moment proportional to duration cubed consistent with self similarity, whereas long period slow slip phenomena exhibit a linear scaling between moment and duration that can be accommodated through constant slip or constant stress drop models. In contrast, LFE durations are nearly constant suggesting that moment is governed by slip alone and that asperity size remains approximately constant. The implied dimensions (~1 km2), the persistance of LFEs in time and their stationarity in space point to structural heterogeneity, perhaps related to pockets of upper oceanic crust impervious to hydrothermal circulation, as a fundamental control.

  6. Operational earthquake forecasting in the South Iceland Seismic Zone: improving the earthquake catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panzera, Francesco; Vogfjörd, Kristin; Zechar, J. Douglas; Eberhard, David

    2014-05-01

    A major earthquake sequence is ongoing in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where experts expect earthquakes of up to MW = 7.1 in the coming years to decades. The historical seismicity in this region is well known and many major faults here and on Reykjanes Peninsula (RP) have already been mapped. The faults are predominantly N-S with right-lateral strike-slip motion, while the overall motion in the SISZ is E-W oriented left-lateral motion. The area that we propose for operational earthquake forecasting(OEF) contains both the SISZ and the RP. The earthquake catalogue considered for OEF, called the SIL catalogue, spans the period from 1991 until September 2013 and contains more than 200,000 earthquakes. Some of these events have a large azimuthal gap between stations, and some have large horizontal and vertical uncertainties. We are interested in building seismicity models using high-quality data, so we filter the catalogue using the criteria proposed by Gomberg et al. (1990) and Bondar et al. (2004). The resulting filtered catalogue contains around 130,000 earthquakes. Magnitude estimates in the Iceland catalogue also require special attention. The SIL system uses two methods to estimate magnitude. The first method is based on an empirical local magnitude (ML) relationship. The other magnitude scale is a so-called "local moment magnitude" (MLW), originally constructed by Slunga et al. (1984) to agree with local magnitude scales in Sweden. In the SIL catalogue, there are two main problems with the magnitude estimates and consequently it is not immediately possible to convert MLW to moment magnitude (MW). These problems are: (i) immediate aftershocks of large events are assigned magnitudes that are too high; and (ii) the seismic moment of large earthquakes is underestimated. For this reason the magnitude values in the catalogue must be corrected before developing an OEF system. To obtain a reliable MW estimate, we calibrate a magnitude relationship based on

  7. Earthquake mechanisms and active tectonics of the Hellenic subduction zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaw, Beth; Jackson, James

    2010-05-01

    We use improved focal mechanisms and centroid depth estimates of earthquakes, combined with GPS velocities, to examine the tectonics of the Hellenic subduction zone, and in particular the processes occurring at both ends of the Hellenic Arc. Nubia-Aegean convergence is accommodated by shallowly dipping thrust-faulting along the subduction-zone interface, as well as by steeper splay faults in the overriding material. From a comparison of observed and expected seismic moment release over the last 100 yr, combined with existing knowledge of the longer-term documented historical record, we confirm earlier suggestions that most (80 per cent) of this convergence is accommodated aseismically, that is, that the subduction zone is uncoupled. This conclusion is robust, even allowing for rare very large earthquakes on splay faults, such as that of AD 365, and also allowing for the contribution of small earthquakes. The downgoing Nubian plate deforms by arc-parallel contraction at all depths, from 200 km seaward of Crete to at least 100 km within the subducting slab. Extensional (T) axes of earthquakes are aligned downdip within the descending slab suggesting that, even if the aseismic prolongation of the slab has reached the 670 km mantle discontinuity, it does not transmit stresses to shallower depths. Shallow thrust-faulting earthquakes on the subduction interface show a divergence of slip vectors round the arc, and GPS measurements show that this is accommodated mainly by E-W extension on normal faults in the overriding Aegean material. The eastern end of the subduction zone, south of Rhodes, displays distributed deformation in the overriding material, including a mixture of strike-slip and splay-thrust faulting, and probably involves rotations about a vertical axes. Here slip on the interface itself is by thrust faulting with slip vectors oblique to the arc but parallel to the overall Nubia-Aegean convergence: there is no evidence for slip-partitioning in the traditional

  8. The Likelihood of Major Global Earthquakes and the 2014 Napa Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ejeta, M. Z.

    2014-12-01

    A previous study that analyzed global major earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 and above for the 1897 to 1977 period suggests that random occurrence of these earthquakes is very unlikely (Olsson 1982). Following an analysis of global major earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above for the 1901 to January 2010 period, a recent study attempts to show an association between major global earthquake and cyclic lunisolar alignment events (Ejeta 2011). The latter study suggests that the inverse square relationship in Newton's law of universal gravitation is likely to explain the physics behind the skewed occurrences of major earthquake events around these alignment events. Using random and non-random occurrence analysis, this paper will present the likelihoods of major global earthquakes since 1990 through September 2014 and how the magnitude 6.0 Napa earthquake of 2014 may be a particular realization of the observed association. Specifically, it will show that using the random occurrence approach, the average probability of occurrence on any day of the 396 major earthquakes recorded by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) during the selected period, which has 9,039 days, is about 4.4%. It will also show that based on the observed association, these events are skewed, with average probabilities of about 39% and 68%, respectively, towards one and two days within lunisolar alignment events recorded by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) during the same period. Of the 396 major earthquake events during the selected period, 154 and 271 occurred, respectively, within one and two days of either new, first quarter, full, or last quarter moon days. This result suggests that a major earthquake event that occurred during this period was more likely than not to have occurred within two days of an alignment event. The magnitude 6.0 Napa earthquake of August 24, 2014, occurred within a day of the August 25, 2014, new moon day. This paper suggests that further research

  9. Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2016-03-01

    Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

  10. Extending the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Giacomo, Domenico; Engdhal, Bob; Storchak, Dmitry; Villaseñor, Antonio; Harris, James

    2015-04-01

    After a 27-month project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), in January 2013 we released the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php) as a special product to use for seismic hazard studies. The new catalogue was necessary as improved seismic hazard studies necessitate that earthquake catalogues are homogeneous (to the largest extent possible) over time in their fundamental parameters, such as location and magnitude. Due to time and resource limitation, the ISC-GEM catalogue (1900-2009) included earthquakes selected according to the following time-variable cut-off magnitudes: Ms=7.5 for earthquakes occurring before 1918; Ms=6.25 between 1918 and 1963; and Ms=5.5 from 1964 onwards. Because of the importance of having a reliable seismic input for seismic hazard studies, funding from GEM and two commercial companies in the US and UK allowed us to start working on the extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue both for earthquakes that occurred beyond 2009 and for earthquakes listed in the International Seismological Summary (ISS) which fell below the cut-off magnitude of 6.25. This extension is part of a four-year program that aims at including in the ISC-GEM catalogue large global earthquakes that occurred before the beginning of the ISC Bulletin in 1964. In this contribution we present the updated ISC GEM catalogue, which will include over 1000 more earthquakes that occurred in 2010 2011 and several hundreds more between 1950 and 1959. The catalogue extension between 1935 and 1949 is currently underway. The extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue will also be helpful for regional cross border seismic hazard studies as the ISC-GEM catalogue should be used as basis for cross-checking the consistency in location and magnitude of those earthquakes listed both in the ISC GEM global catalogue and regional catalogues.

  11. Multiple-Event Relocation of Blanco Transform Fault Zone Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnot, J. M.; Ledger, A. S.; Perkins, M. L.; Ruddock, S.; Salentine, B. J.; Salentine, S. J.; Larsen, H. E.; Cronin, V. S.; Sverdrup, K. A.

    2001-12-01

    Earthquakes along the ~350 km long Blanco transform fault zone (BTFZ) between the Pacific and Juan de Fuca plates are routinely mislocated northeast of the active transform boundary. A set of 111 magnitude >5 earthquakes recorded from 1964 through 2000 were relocated using the multiple-event relocation technique of Jordan and Sverdrup (1981). An earthquake on June 2, 2000, that was included in the relocated set had also been well located using independent data from the SOSUS hydrophone array (Fox, Dziak and Will, 2000), permitting specification of a static correction to improve absolute locations for the clusters. The static correction involved a rotation of all earthquake location vectors from the relocated positions by ~0.23° around a pole at latitude 11.14° N, longitude 28.99° W, resulting in an average change in location of 25 km toward azimuth 165° . The final locations resulting from the multiple-event relocation and static correction were an average distance of 30 +/-10 km toward azimuth 172 +/-31 degrees relative to the initial ISC locations. The 95% confidence-interval ellipses of these solutions generally fall on or very near active structural features along the BTFZ. The semi-major axis of the 95% CI error ellipse for most events in the set averaged 14.9 +/-5.9 km in length; however, the semi-major axis for 8 events recorded by <50 stations were >40 km long. The pattern of relocated epicenters does not indicate uniform spatial distribution of activity along the BTFZ; however, the sample time interval of just 36 years may be too short to expect uniform distribution. Focal mechanism solutions were obtained from the Harvard CMT catalog for 33 of the events. All but 2 of the focal mechanism solutions for earthquakes along the BTFZ indicate appropriate right-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. One event relocated to near the Surveyor Basin has a normal-fault focal mechanism. The focal mechanism solutions support the interpretation that these are plate

  12. Random variability explains apparent global clustering of large earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.

    2011-01-01

    The occurrence of 5 Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes since 2004 has created a debate over whether or not we are in a global cluster of large earthquakes, temporarily raising risks above long-term levels. I use three classes of statistical tests to determine if the record of M ≥ 7 earthquakes since 1900 can reject a null hypothesis of independent random events with a constant rate plus localized aftershock sequences. The data cannot reject this null hypothesis. Thus, the temporal distribution of large global earthquakes is well-described by a random process, plus localized aftershocks, and apparent clustering is due to random variability. Therefore the risk of future events has not increased, except within ongoing aftershock sequences, and should be estimated from the longest possible record of events.

  13. Brecciation processes in fault zones: Inferences from earthquake rupturing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibson, Richard H.

    1986-01-01

    Surface-rupture patterns and aftershock distributions accompanying moderate to large shallow earthquakes reveal a residual brittle infrastructure for established crustal fault zones, the complexity of which is likely to be largely scale-invariant. In relation to such an infrastructure, continued displacement along a particular master fault may involve three dominant mechanical processes of rock brecciation: (a) attrition brecciation, from progressive frictional wear along principal slip surfaces during both seismic and aseismic sliding, (b) distributed crush brecciation, involving microfracturing over broad regions when slip on the principal slip surfaces is impeded by antidilational jogs or other obstructions, and (c) implosion brecciation, associated with the sudden creation of void space and fluid-pressure differentials at dilational fault jogs during earthquake rupture propagation. These last, high-dilation breccias are particularly favorable sites for hydrothermal mineral deposition, forming transitory low-pressure channels for the rapid passage of hydrothermal fluids. Long-lived fault zones often contain an intermingling of breccias derived from all three processes.

  14. Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike

    2011-01-01

    Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

  15. Variability in Shallow Subduction Zone Locking Inferred From Earthquake Activity Near Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, A.; Newman, A. V.; Thomas, A. M.; Farmer, G. T.

    2006-12-01

    At the collisional plate interface of subduction zones, the majority of the world's large and great earthquakes are produced. Thus, to understand the processes that control earthquake generation here, it is important to improve our characterization of activity along the interface. We evaluate ~1000 earthquakes recorded in the shallow subduction environment of the Middle America Trench (MAT) near Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica, in terms of its frequency-magnitude distribution (Log10N=a-bM) of the microseismicity. Globally, earthquake distributions have b-values near 1, meaning a 10-fold decrease in activity with each unit magnitude, M increase, and can be used to characterize the strength of locking. The unique geometry of Nicoya over the active seismogenic interface gives us a rare opportunity to explore the region with unparalleled precision. From more than 7000 earthquakes recorded by the 1999-2001 CRSEIZE project, we estimated magnitudes, and precisely relocated events using a locally derived 3D V_p and V_p/V_s velocity model (DeShon et al., 2006). Using geometric constraints and events with lowest horizontal error (<2 km σ), we created a subset of best resolved slab and interface activity. Using a methodology similar to Wiemer et al. (2001), we determined the mean and spatial variability of b. We find that generally the interface below Nicoya has b=1.4, much higher than subduction zone averages of b=0.5 to 0.8 ( Bayrak et al., 2002), thus inferring a generally weak interface. More interestingly, there was strong spatial variability in b (and hence coupling). A well resolved zone of lower b (~1), is observed offshore the central Nicoya coast, in a region previously identified as strongly coupled by modeling of GPS observed deformation (Norabuena et al., 2004). Extremely high values are on either side (b > 2), near previous large interface earthquakes in 1990 and 1992. We infer that the low b-value area offshore central Nicoya identifies a more strongly

  16. Estimation of earthquake effects associated with a great earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hopper, Margaret G.; Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore; Dobrovolny, Ernest E.

    1983-01-01

    Estimates have been made of the effects of a large Ms = 8.6, Io = XI earthquake hypothesed to occur anywhere in the New Madrid seismic zone. The estimates are based on the distributions of intensities associated with the earthquakes of 1811-12, 1843 and 1895 although the effects of other historical shocks are also considered. The resulting composite type intensity map for a maximum intensity XI is believed to represent the upper level of shaking likely to occur. Specific intensity maps have been developed for six cities near the epicentral region taking into account the most likely distribution of site response in each city. Intensities found are: IX for Carbondale, IL; VIII and IX for Evansville, IN; VI and VIII for Little Rock, AR; IX and X for Memphis, TN; VIII, IX, and X for Paducah, KY; and VIII and X for Poplar Bluff, MO. On a regional scale, intensities are found to attenuate from the New Madrid seismic zone most rapidly to the west and southwest sides of the zone, most slowly to the northwest along the Mississippi River, on the northeast along the Ohio River, and on the southeast toward Georgia and South Carolina. Intensities attenuate toward the north, east, and south in a more normal fashion. Known liquefaction effects are documented but much more research is needed to define the liquefaction potential.

  17. Possibility to explain global climate variations by earthquakes influence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molchanov, O.

    2009-12-01

    An additional natural source of the global warming could be heat flux from seismicity. Estimated earthquakes energy release in the near-equatorial Pacific area during a year ≈ 1020 J that is equivalent to the energy released in the detonation about one million atomic bombs of Hiroshima class and produce average power flux due to seismicity ≈ 0.3-1 W/m2 . We have analyzed together the slow climate temperature variations in the near-equatorial Pacific Ocean area (SSTOI indices) and crustal seismic activity in the same region during 1973-2008 time period using correlation analysis and found similarity in seismic and ENSO periodicities (the latter with time lag about 1.5 years). Trends of the processes are also similar showing about 2 times increase in average seismic energy release during the whole period of analysis and conventional 0.10C/(10 years) increase in SSTOI index anomalies. Our main conclusion is on real possibility of climate-seismicity coupling. It is rather probable that at least partially climate ENSO oscillations and temperature anomaly trends are induced by similar variation in seismicity. A mechanism of several years periodicity in the seismic activity is unclear at present. Probably it is initiated in the upper mantle of the Earth (depth 600-700 km) and then penetrates in the crust as so-called deformation (or stress) wave with time delay from 3 to 10 years [1] [1] O.A. Molchanov and S. Uyeda, Upward migration of earthquake hypocenters in Japan,Kurile- Kamchatka and Sunda subduction zones, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 34, 423-430, 2009; doi:10.1016/j.pce.2008.09.011.

  18. A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Garcia, Daniel; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

  19. Systematic Characterization of Radiated Energy and Static Stress Drop of Global Subduction Earthquakes from Source Time Functions Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vallee, M.; Chounet, A.

    2014-12-01

    Source Time Functions (STFs) describe how the seismic moment (Mo) is released with time. In addition to moment magnitude Mw, they carry information on more detailed rupture properties, such as static stress drop Δσ and radiated energy Er. Here we systematically analyze a set of 1500 STFs extracted from the SCARDEC method (Vallée et al 2011), containing the Mw>5.8, shallow (z<70 km) earthquakes with normal or inverse mechanisms that occurred in the past 20 years. At the global scale, we confirm the scale-invariance of Δσ with magnitude, while the apparent stress µEr/Mo slightly increases with seismic moment. In a second step, the source parameters distribution is investigated in light of the tectonic context of the earthquakes: we find that subduction interplate earthquakes have lower stress drop and apparent stress relative to all other earthquakes (e.g. crustal earthquakes), in agreement with other approaches (Houston, 2001; Allmann and Shearer, 2009). This observation may reflect the fact that subduction plate boundaries host a very large number of earthquakes, making the fault zone "mature"; or, it may be the consequence of the hydrated subducted materials leading to specific frictional properties. This finding may explain why damages observed after crustal earthquakes tend to be larger than the ones due to subduction earthquakes of the same magnitude. We finally focus on subduction interplate earthquakes (approximately 700 earthquakes) by considering 18 regional segments of subduction zones. We find that these segments do not have the same signature in terms of dynamic rupture properties, which means that large scale plate convergence properties influence rupture behavior. In a given segment, local heterogeneities of stress drop or radiated energy can be associated with local features of the subduction zone: in particular, we find that low coupled zones generate earthquakes with low stress drop and apparent stress.

  20. Fault zone structure and seismic reflection characteristics in zones of slow slip and tsunami earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Rebecca; Henrys, Stuart; Sutherland, Rupert; Barker, Daniel; Wallace, Laura; Holden, Caroline; Power, William; Wang, Xiaoming; Morgan, Joanna; Warner, Michael; Downes, Gaye

    2015-04-01

    Over the last couple of decades we have learned that a whole spectrum of different fault slip behaviour takes place on subduction megathrust faults from stick-slip earthquakes to slow slip and stable sliding. Geophysical data, including seismic reflection data, can be used to characterise margins and fault zones that undergo different modes of slip. In this presentation we will focus on the Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, which exhibits marked along-strike changes in seismic behaviour and margin characteristics. Campaign and continuous GPS measurements reveal deep interseismic coupling and deep slow slip events (~30-60 km) at the southern Hikurangi margin. The northern margin, in contrast, experiences aseismic slip and shallow (<10-15 km) slow slip events (SSE) every 18-24 months with equivalent moment magnitudes of Mw 6.5-6.8. Updip of the SSE region two unusual megathrust earthquakes occurred in March and May 1947 with characteristics typical of tsunami earthquakes. The Hikurangi margin is therefore an excellent natural laboratory to study differential fault slip behaviour. Using 2D seismic reflection, magnetic anomaly and geodetic data we observe in the source areas of the 1947 tsunami earthquakes i) low amplitude interface reflectivity, ii) shallower interface relief, iii) bathymetric ridges, iv) magnetic anomaly highs and in the case of the March 1947 earthquake v) stronger geodetic coupling. We suggest that this is due to the subduction of seamounts, similar in dimensions to seamounts observed on the incoming Pacific plate, to depths of <10 km. We propose a source model for the 1947 tsunami earthquakes based on geophysical data and find that extremely low rupture velocities (c. 300 m/s) are required to model the observed large tsunami run-up heights (Bell et al. 2014, EPSL). Our study suggests that subducted topography can cause the nucleation of moderate earthquakes with complex, low velocity rupture scenarios that enhance tsunami waves, and the role of

  1. Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Estimation and Risk Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  2. Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model.

    PubMed

    Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin

    2013-01-01

    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region. PMID:23878524

  3. Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Shimin

    2013-01-01

    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region. PMID:23878524

  4. An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David

    2010-01-01

    We analyzed mortality rates of earthquakes worldwide and developed a country/region-specific empirical model for earthquake fatality estimation within the U. S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is defined as total killed divided by total population exposed at specific shaking intensity level. The total fatalities for a given earthquake are estimated by multiplying the number of people exposed at each shaking intensity level by the fatality rates for that level and then summing them at all relevant shaking intensities. The fatality rate is expressed in terms of a two-parameter lognormal cumulative distribution function of shaking intensity. The parameters are obtained for each country or a region by minimizing the residual error in hindcasting the total shaking-related deaths from earthquakes recorded between 1973 and 2007. A new global regionalization scheme is used to combine the fatality data across different countries with similar vulnerability traits. [DOI: 10.1193/1.3480331

  5. Earthquake source parameters along the Hellenic subduction zone and numerical simulations of historical tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay

    2012-04-01

    We studied source mechanism parameters and slip distributions of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.0 occurred during 2000-2008 along the Hellenic subduction zone by using teleseismic P- and SH-waveform inversion methods. In addition, the major and well-known earthquake-induced Eastern Mediterranean tsunamis (e.g., 365, 1222, 1303, 1481, 1494, 1822 and 1948) were numerically simulated and several hypothetical tsunami scenarios were proposed to demonstrate the characteristics of tsunami waves, propagations and effects of coastal topography. The analogy of current plate boundaries, earthquake source mechanisms, various earthquake moment tensor catalogues and several empirical self-similarity equations, valid for global or local scales, were used to assume conceivable source parameters which constitute the initial and boundary conditions in simulations. Teleseismic inversion results showed that earthquakes along the Hellenic subduction zone can be classified into three major categories: [1] focal mechanisms of the earthquakes exhibiting E-W extension within the overriding Aegean plate; [2] earthquakes related to the African-Aegean convergence; and [3] focal mechanisms of earthquakes lying within the subducting African plate. Normal faulting mechanisms with left-lateral strike slip components were observed at the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone, and we suggest that they were probably concerned with the overriding Aegean plate. However, earthquakes involved in the convergence between the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean lithospheres indicated thrust faulting mechanisms with strike slip components, and they had shallow focal depths (h < 45 km). Deeper earthquakes mainly occurred in the subducting African plate, and they presented dominantly strike slip faulting mechanisms. Slip distributions on fault planes showed both complex and simple rupture propagations with respect to the variation of source mechanism and faulting geometry. We calculated low stress drop

  6. The impact of thick subduction zone sediment input sections on earthquake and tsunami potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNeill, L. C.; Smith, G. L.; Henstock, T.

    2012-12-01

    The role of input sediments at subduction zones in controlling fault properties and seismogenic behavior is an ongoing focus area of geohazard research. This includes the effect of sediment burying oceanic basement topography, smoothing the plate interface and reducing the potential for earthquake rupture-stopping barriers. The impact of extremely thick sediment sections on the position of the updip limit of the seismogenic zone has, however, not been examined in detail. At some margins, convergent margin seismicity (including recent megathrust ruptures, aftershocks, and smaller magnitude plate boundary earthquakes) has recorded activity on the plate boundary significantly further seaward than conventionally expected, i.e., beneath the prism and extending close to the trench. Example margins include those with very thick input sediment sections e.g., North Sumatra and Makran, where trench sediment thicknesses reach 5-7 km. These results prove that the accretionary wedge can behave seismogenically, resulting in a potentially significant impact on rupture width, and earthquake and tsunami magnitude. On the North Sumatra margin, rupture during the 2004 earthquake propagated far seaward beneath the prism with possible evidence for aftershock activity to the trench. On the Makran margin, several 20th Century M5-8 earthquakes appear to originate from the plate boundary beneath the outer/offshore prism, including a M 8 earthquake in 1945, but this margin's seismic and tsunamigenic hazard potential has often been under-acknowledged. The base of the input sediment sections at these two margins are dense and likely lithified, hence not conforming to the expectation of thick sediment sections being overpressured and weak. In addition, the accreted sediments of the North Sumatran prism interior are high density. Thermal modeling of the Makran margin, with the thickest global sediment input section and the widest prism, places the 150°C isotherm or updip seismogenic limit at

  7. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    SciTech Connect

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-03-23

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  8. Earthquake supercycle in subduction zones controlled by the width of the seismogenic zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrendoerfer, R.; Dalguer, L. A.; van Dinther, Y.; Gerya, T.

    2015-12-01

    Supercycles describe a long-term cluster of differently-sized megathrust earthquakes that consist of partial ruptures leading up to the final complete failure of a subduction zone segment. We recognize that supercycles are suggested to occur in those subduction zones (Sumatra, Japan, S-Chile, N-Central Chile, Colombia-Ecuador) for which the estimated seismogenic zone downdip width is larger than average (111 km). Here we provide an explanation for this potential link between the seismogenic zone downdip width and supercycles. We use a two-dimensional, continuum-based seismo-mechanical model, which was recently validated through a comparison against scaled analogue subduction experiments. The setup consists of an upper plate represented by a visco-elastic wedge, which is underthrusted by a rigid plate. The megathrust is simulated by a layer governed by slip-rate dependent friction, in which the velocity-weakening seismogenic zone extends over a certain width and transitions up-and downdip to velocity-strengthening regions. In our simulations, the first megathrust events in a supercycle generally rupture only the outermost parts of the seismogenic zone. These sub-critical and pulse-like ruptures are stopped due to a large excess of strength over stress, which leads to a transfer of stresses towards the centre of the seismogenic zone. In addition to the continued tectonic loading, they thereby gradually reduce the strength excess so that the largest megathrust events finally rupture the entire seismogenic zone in a crack-like manner and release most of the accumulated stress. A greater downdip width increases the average strength excess and thus favours supercycles over ordinary cycles of only similarly sized complete ruptures. We conclude that such stress evolution along the dip of a wide seismogenic zone is the simplest mechanism governing supercycles. Additional a priori complexities, like previously suggested structural or frictional heterogeneities are not

  9. Quiet zone within a seismic gap near western Nicaragua: Possible location of a future large earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harlow, D.H.; White, R.A.; Cifuentes, I.L.; Aburto, Q.A.

    1981-01-01

    A 5700-square-kilometer quiet zone occurs in the midst of the locations of more than 4000 earthquakes off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. The region is indicated by the seismic gap technique to be a likely location for an earthquake of magnitude larger than 7. The quiet zone has existed since at least 1950; the last large earthquake originating from this area occurred in 1898 and was of magnitude 7.5. A rough estimate indicates that the magnitude of an earthquake rupturing the entire quiet zone could be as large as that of the 1898 event. It is not yet possible to forecast a time frame for the occurrence of such an earthquake in the quiet zone. Copyright ?? 1981 AAAS.

  10. The 2004 Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami: Lessons Learned in Subduction Zone Science and Emergency Management for the Cascadia Subduction Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassidy, John F.

    2015-03-01

    The 26 December 2004, Mw 9.3 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami was a pivotal turning point in our awareness of the dangers posed by subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis. This earthquake was the world's largest in 40 years, and it produced the world's deadliest tsunami. This earthquake ruptured a subduction zone that has many similarities to the Cascadia Subduction Zone. In this article, I summarize lessons learned from this tragedy, and make comparisons with potential rupture characteristics, slip distribution, deformation patterns, and aftershock patterns for Cascadia using theoretical modeling and interseismic observations. Both subduction zones are approximately 1,100-1,300 km in length. Both have similar convergence rates and represent oblique subduction. Slip along the subduction fault during the 26 December earthquake is estimated at 15-25 m, similar to values estimated for Cascadia. The width of the rupture, ~80-150 km estimated from modeling seismic and geodetic data, is similar to the width of the "locked and transition zone" estimated for Cascadia. Coseismic subsidence of up to 2 m along the Sumatra coast is also similar to that predicted for parts of northern Cascadia, based on paleoseismic evidence. In addition to scientific lessons learned, the 2004 tsunami provided many critical lessons for emergency management and preparedness. As a result of that tragedy, a number of preparedness initiatives are now underway to promote awareness of earthquake and tsunami hazards along the west coast of North America, and plans are underway to develop prototype tsunami and earthquake warning systems along Cascadia. Lessons learned from the great Sumatra earthquake and tsunami tragedy, both through scientific studies and through public education initiatives, will help to reduce losses during future earthquakes in Cascadia and other subduction zones of the world.

  11. Formulation and Application of a Physically-Based Rupture Probability Model for Large Earthquakes on Subduction Zones: A Case Study of Earthquakes on Nazca Plate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahdyiar, M.; Galgana, G.; Shen-Tu, B.; Klein, E.; Pontbriand, C. W.

    2014-12-01

    Most time dependent rupture probability (TDRP) models are basically designed for a single-mode rupture, i.e. a single characteristic earthquake on a fault. However, most subduction zones rupture in complex patterns that create overlapping earthquakes of different magnitudes. Additionally, the limited historic earthquake data does not provide sufficient information to estimate reliable mean recurrence intervals for earthquakes. This makes it difficult to identify a single characteristic earthquake for TDRP analysis. Physical models based on geodetic data have been successfully used to obtain information on the state of coupling and slip deficit rates for subduction zones. Coupling information provides valuable insight into the complexity of subduction zone rupture processes. In this study we present a TDRP model that is formulated based on subduction zone slip deficit rate distribution. A subduction zone is represented by an integrated network of cells. Each cell ruptures multiple times from numerous earthquakes that have overlapping rupture areas. The rate of rupture for each cell is calculated using a moment balance concept that is calibrated based on historic earthquake data. The information in conjunction with estimates of coseismic slip from past earthquakes is used to formulate time dependent rupture probability models for cells. Earthquakes on the subduction zone and their rupture probabilities are calculated by integrating different combinations of cells. The resulting rupture probability estimates are fully consistent with the state of coupling of the subduction zone and the regional and local earthquake history as the model takes into account the impact of all large (M>7.5) earthquakes on the subduction zone. The granular rupture model as developed in this study allows estimating rupture probabilities for large earthquakes other than just a single characteristic magnitude earthquake. This provides a general framework for formulating physically

  12. A rare great earthquake on an oceanic fossil fracture zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, D. P.

    2011-09-01

    Broad-band body and mantle wave data are used to study the 2004 December 23, Tasman Sea earthquake. In common with other strike-slip earthquakes studied in the same fashion, the mantle wave data indicates that there are two pure-double couple constrained solutions, along with a range of mechanisms between them, that fit the data almost equally well. Aftershocks relocated for this study indicate that the rupture occurred on a fracture zone which bends sharply in the epicentral region. Horizontally polarised S body waves and P body waves are used to determine the rupture parameters. A model with two faults best fits the data. The northern fault plane, with strike 160°, dip 86° and rake 5°, is compatible with the first motion solution found in this study and has a strike consistent with the fracture zone north of the bend. The southern fault plane, with strike 178°, dip 54° and rake 65°, has a strike consistent with the portion of the fracture zone to the south of the bend and has a dip which can be explained by the style of deformation that the region is undergoing. The centroid moment tensor solution of the broad-band model is calculated and found to be consistent with the region of low misfit in mantle wave solution space. The broad-band solution has a moment of 1.53 × 1021 N m (Mw 8.1), again, consistent with the mantle wave data. Slip propagated bilaterally with an approximate rupture velocity of ˜3 km s-1˜80 per cent of local shear wave speed. The rupture front is less well resolved to the south of the epicentre than to the north. The majority (˜75 per cent) of moment originated from slip on the northern fault. The broad-band data requires significant slip below the oceanic Moho with as much as 70 per cent of moment due to slip in the brittle uppermost mantle in the preferred model.

  13. Repeating earthquakes on the Chile subduction zone following the Maule 2010 M 8.8 earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rietbrock, A.; Jenkins, J.; Tilmann, F. J.; Hicks, S. P.; Palo, M.

    2013-12-01

    We investigate repeating earthquakes (REs) on the Chile subduction zone, in the first 9 months following the Maule 2010 M 8.8 earthquake. Using the aftershock catalogue of approximately 30,000 events (Rietbrock et al., 2012) and the data from the International Maule Aftershock Dataset (IMAD), we identify 1550 clusters of small magnitude (Mw ~1.5-3) events showing similar waveforms (cross-correlation coefficients>0.9). Clusters are found from the surface to depths of ~60km, indicating the generation of RE on pre-existing crustal faults and slab interface. A particularly dense band of clustered seismicity runs NE-SW along the length of Chile at 37-47km depth on the slab/continent interface, apparently defining the limit of plate coupling (Rietbrock et al, 2012; Lange et al., 2012). Relocation of deep clusters, via the double difference method (hypoDD), reveal that they lie within a region of increased fluid content (interpreted from high Vp/Vs ratio (Hicks et al., 2012)), and define streaks of seismicity orientated down-dip. Moment tensor analysis of selected aftershocks shows that larger events M 4-5 are located at the interface or deeper in the slab (5-8km beneath the slab interface) and show thrust motion along the direction of the plate interface. REs, in contrast, show predominantly strike-slip motion and are located close to the interface. Temporal analysis also shows non-constant recurrence times of events within clusters, which we interpret as an indication that the seismicity in the deep clusters are driven by pulses of after-slip from the Maule 2010 event together with episodic fluid migration. We introduce a model of Mixed Mode Fault Slip (MMFS) to explain our observations, where aseismic sliding of trench sediments in the subduction channel build up stress on fragments of ocean crust, causing them to repeatedly fracture and generate repeating earthquakes.

  14. Shallow fault-zone dilatancy recovery after the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran.

    PubMed

    Fielding, Eric J; Lundgren, Paul R; Bürgmann, Roland; Funning, Gareth J

    2009-03-01

    Earthquakes radiate from slip on discrete faults, but also commonly involve distributed deformation within a broader fault zone, especially near the surface. Variations in rock strain during an earthquake are caused by heterogeneity in the elastic stress before the earthquake, by variable material properties and geometry of the fault zones, and by dynamic processes during the rupture. Stress changes due to the earthquake slip, both dynamic and static, have long been thought to cause dilatancy in the fault zone that recovers after the earthquake. Decreases in the velocity of seismic waves passing through the fault zone due to coseismic dilatancy have been observed followed by postseismic seismic velocity increases during healing. Dilatancy and its recovery have not previously been observed geodetically. Here we use interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar images to measure postseismic surface deformation after the 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake and show reversal of coseismic dilatancy in the shallow fault zone that causes subsidence of the surface. This compaction of the fault zone is directly above the patch of greatest coseismic slip at depth. The dilatancy and compaction probably reflects distributed shear and damage to the material during the earthquake that heals afterwards. Coseismic and postseismic deformation spread through a fault zone volume may resolve the paradox of shallow slip deficits for some strike-slip fault ruptures. PMID:19262670

  15. Seismic gaps and source zones of recent large earthquakes in coastal Peru

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dewey, J.W.; Spence, W.

    1979-01-01

    The earthquakes of central coastal Peru occur principally in two distinct zones of shallow earthquake activity that are inland of and parallel to the axis of the Peru Trench. The interface-thrust (IT) zone includes the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 17 October 1966 and 3 October 1974. The coastal-plate interior (CPI) zone includes the great earthquake of 31 May 1970, and is located about 50 km inland of and 30 km deeper than the interface thrust zone. The occurrence of a large earthquake in one zone may not relieve elastic strain in the adjoining zone, thus complicating the application of the seismic gap concept to central coastal Peru. However, recognition of two seismic zones may facilitate detection of seismicity precursory to a large earthquake in a given zone; removal of probable CPI-zone earthquakes from plots of seismicity prior to the 1974 main shock dramatically emphasizes the high seismic activity near the rupture zone of that earthquake in the five years preceding the main shock. Other conclusions on the seismicity of coastal Peru that affect the application of the seismic gap concept to this region are: (1) Aftershocks of the great earthquakes of 1966, 1970, and 1974 occurred in spatially separated clusters. Some clusters may represent distinct small source regions triggered by the main shock rather than delimiting the total extent of main-shock rupture. The uncertainty in the interpretation of aftershock clusters results in corresponding uncertainties in estimates of stress drop and estimates of the dimensions of the seismic gap that has been filled by a major earthquake. (2) Aftershocks of the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 1966 and 1974 generally did not extend seaward as far as the Peru Trench. (3) None of the three great earthquakes produced significant teleseismic activity in the following month in the source regions of the other two earthquakes. The earthquake hypocenters that form the basis of this study were relocated using station

  16. Earthquake Production by Subduction Zones is Not Linear in Relative Plate Velocity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bird, P.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.; Schoenberg, F. P.; Werner, M. J.

    2007-12-01

    class with random Poissonian seismicity in each plate boundary step (with expectations based on the tectonic model) to assess the significance of the measures obtained. Subduction zones have velocity-dependent coupled thickness: P < 0.001 for the null hypothesis. Subduction zones with relative plate velocity <67 mm/a (which would comprise 35% of the model tectonic moment rate, in the null hypothesis) actually produce only 20% of the global subduction zone earthquakes (outside orogens), and thus have a coupled thickness about half that of faster subduction zones (if corner magnitude and spectral slope are constant). This result contradicts the uniform coupling of subduction zones inferred by Kreemer et al. [2002, Geodyn. Ser.]; the difference may be due to their exclusion of several slow subduction zones including Aegean, Cascadia, New Zealand, Caribbean, and South Shetland. Continental CCBs show a similarly strong relation (P < 0.001), with an increase in coupled thickness when velocity exceeds 25 mm/a. OSRs show coupled thickness declining with velocity, as in previous studies. OTFs and OCBs give complex results with significant variations (P < 0.01; P < 0.05) that are not easy to interpret. For CRBs and CTFs we do not reject the null hypothesis of constant coupled thickness.

  17. Structural and Lithologic Characteristics of the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone and its Relationship with Seismic Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Li, H.; Pei, J.; Li, T.; Huang, Y.; Zhao, Z.

    2010-12-01

    The Wenchuan earthquake (Ms 8.0) struck the Longmen Shan area, the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau in Sichuan, China.It produced a large co-seismic surface rupture zone along the Yingxiu-Beichuan and Guanxian-Anxian fault zones. Our research focuses on the central fault of the Longmuanshan fault belt: the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault zone. Detailed studies were done on the coseismic surface rupture in Bajiaomiao village, Hongkou town. Combining with analyses of the cores from the No.1 Well of the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling (WFSD-1) Project, the composition features and structures of the Longmenshan fault belt are discussed. Our research indicates that the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault zone is composed of many small sub-faults (damage zone), which consist of fault breccia, cataclasite and/or fault gouge, and small amounts pseudotachylite in some faults. The thickness of the gouge in the fault zone ranges from several millimeters to 25 centimeters, which is consistent with the fault characteristics recorded in the cores of WFSD-1. Gouge is the product of the frictional effect during the earthquake, representing the principal slip zone (PSZ). The width of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault zone is about 120 m viewed from outcrops in Bajiaomiao village. More than 80 small sub-faults that contain gouge are distributed in this area. Only several millimeters to approximately 2 centimeters gouge can be formed in one earthquake, from the results of the Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project (TCDP) and Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling (WFSD) Project, so we can infer that each layer of gouge in Yingxiu-Beichuan fault zone might be produced by at least 1 to 13 large earthquakes. The total thickness of the gouge in this area is about 150 cm, indicating at least 183 earthquake events, and suggesting that strong earthquakes repeatedly occurred along the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault zone. Each earthquake does not completely slip along the principal slip zone (PSZ) of

  18. Subducting Seamounts and the Rupturing Process of Great Subduction Zone Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, S.

    2009-05-01

    It was suggested in the 1970's that subducting ocean floor features may delimit the along-strike rupture lengths of large subduction zone earthquakes. With the dramatic improvement in data quality, both for seismic and ocean floor bathmetry data, we can now see how the actual rupturing process of great earthquakes is also influenced by such subducting features. Here we present three great (Mw > 8) subduction zone earthquakes, in very different parts of the world, for which a relation between the ocean floor and the earthquake source process is seen. These include the 1986 Andreanof Islands, Alaska and the 1996 Biak, Indonesia earthquakes, in which the regions of large slip concentrate in patches, reminiscent of the "asperity model" of earthquakes, and appear to be related to subducted seamounts. For the 2001 Peru earthquake, a subducting fracture zone, with its associated bathymetric peak and trough, seems to have been the cause of the rupture being stalled for ~30s, before producing an earthquake of Mw 8.4, the third largest earthquake worldwide since 1965. Similarities and differences in the earthquake rupturing properties for these two different types of subducting features will be discussed. An outstanding question is what controls whether a seamount obducts or subducts.

  19. Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Y. J.; Tolstoy, M.

    2014-12-01

    Significant tidal triggering of earthquakes has been observed precursory to the Tohoku and Sumatra megathrust earthquakes (Tanaka 2010; 2012). The appearance of high correlation between tidally-induced stresses and earthquake occurrence frequency several to ten years before these megathrust earthquakes suggests that such statistical analysis could be useful in improving forecasting of future subduction zone earthquakes. Using this statistical method, we analyzed the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone which has been known to produce devastating tsunamigenic earthquakes, and specifically the Semidi Segment that is probably late in its earthquake cycle (Davies et. al. 1981). Our study aims to understand if significant tidal triggering of earthquakes were present precursory to historical great earthquakes in this region. We also aim to understand if any segment along the subduction zone is currently displaying statistically significant tidal triggering of earthquakes and whether such observations are indicative of the stress state of the segment. Finally, we test if the strength of tidal triggering captured by this statistical method is sensitive to the tidal stress azimuth used. Such sensitivity could be indicative of the predominant fault slip direction in the specific segment.

  20. Wasatch fault zone, Utah - segmentation and history of Holocene earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Machette, Michael N.; Personius, Stephen F.; Nelson, Alan R.; Schwartz, David P.; Lund, William R.

    1991-01-01

    The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) forms the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range province and is the longest continuous, active normal fault (343 km) in the United States. It underlies an urban corridor of 1.6 million people (80% of Utah's population) representing the largest earthquake risk in the interior of the western United States. The authors have used paleoseismological data to identify 10 discrete segments of the WFZ. Five are active, medial segments with Holocene slip rates of 1-2 mm a-1, recurrence intervals of 2000-4000 years and average lengths of about 50 km. Five are less active, distal segments with mostly pre-Holocene surface ruptures, late Quaternary slip rates of <0.5 mm a-1, recurrence intervals of ???10,000 years and average lengths of about 20 km. Surface-faulting events on each of the medial segments of the WFZ formed 2-4-m-high scarps repeatedly during the Holocene. Paleoseismological records for the past 6000 years indicate that a major surface-rupturing earthquake has occurred along one of the medial segments about every 395 ?? 60 years. However, between about 400 and 1500 years ago, the WFZ experienced six major surface-rupturing events, an average of one event every 220 years, or about twice as often as expected from the 6000-year record. Evidence has been found that surface-rupturing events occurred on the WFZ during the past 400 years, a time period which is twice the average intracluster recurrence interval and equal to the average Holocene recurrence interval.

  1. Relationships between Slow Slip and Earthquakes at the Brittle-Ductile Transition of Subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brudzinski, M. R.; Colella, H.; Skoumal, R.; Cabral-Cano, E.; Arciniega-Ceballos, A.; Graham, S. E.; DeMets, C.; Sit, S. M.; Holtkamp, S. G.

    2014-12-01

    Following the discovery of episodic tremor and slip, one of the key questions raised is whether the phenomena can be a harbinger of megathrust earthquakes. Several recent large subduction earthquakes have provided an opportunity to investigate this question. The March 20, 2012 Mw 7.4 Ometepec earthquake in southern Mexico represents one such opportunity as it occurred in an area with a joint seismic and geodetic network in the source region that can examine whether patterns in the episodic tremor and slip were related to the earthquake. GPS data indicate that a 5-month-long slow slip episode (SSE) migrated toward and reached the vicinity of the mainshock source zone a few weeks before the earthquake. With multi-station waveform matching of templates constructed from visible aftershock signals, we find an increase in seismic activity during the SSE. The fault patches represented by these templates fill in the gap between the earthquake epicenter and the primary SSE. Analysis of other seismic swarms in Oaxaca near the down-dip end of the seismogenic zone with multi-station template matching also shows an increase in seismicity during SSEs. This evidence adds to a growing number of published accounts that indicate slow slip, whether geodetically or seismically inferred, is becoming a more commonly observed pre-earthquake signature. We use RSQSim earthquake simulations to model these scenarios using a subduction interface with a shallow seismogenic zone, deep SSE zone, and a microseismicity zone in between. Simulations where the microseismicity zone is assigned varying effective normal stresses and slip speeds over small distances generate cases in which microseismicity primarily occurs when a SSE migrates up-dip to the point enough stress is transferred to nucleate an earthquake on elements with a higher effective normal stress. Together these observations support the notion that SSE can trigger traditional earthquakes, not just tremor and low-frequency earthquakes.

  2. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thenhaus, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

  3. Assessing Fundamental Drivers of the Global Electric Circuit and the Potential Role of Earthquakes (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golkowski, M.; Kubicki, M.; Brady, B.

    2013-12-01

    The relationship between atmospheric currents and ionospheric potentials on a planetary scale, known as the Global Electric Circuit (GEC), has been the subject of investigation for almost 100 years. Lightning and thundercloud activity have long been suspected to be the fundamental drivers of the GEC. While these atmospheric activities play a role in the GEC, there is still some uncertainty whether they are the only driving mechanism of the observed DC global ionospheric potential. We reassess the role of lightning and thunderclouds as the main driver of the GEC using the newly deployed Vaisala Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360), which offers global and accurate real-time lightning coverage. Diurnal and geographic variation of lightning activity are averaged over the two year dataset and compared to previous results. Lightning activity for individual days is also compared with atmospheric electric field measurements made on the European continent. Our investigations suggest that atmospheric activity associated with lightning as the only primary driver of the GEC has difficulties. Several investigators have raised the possibility of the potential role of electromagnetic effects associated with fracturing of rock materials in the source region of crustal earthquakes on exciting the GEC. Unfortunately, the physical processes associated with crustal fracture in the source zone are poorly understood. We examine several mechanisms including the role that fluids present in the hypocentral region of pending earthquakes play in generating streaming potentials that may be associated with generating electromagnetic effects. Changes during the earthquake preparation process can produce observed changes in the GEC. We believe this mechanism provides a process that can generate electromagnetic effects that are crucially dependent on the focal mechanism, magnitude and rupture process of the pending earthquake. We highlight cases of anomalies in atmospheric electric field

  4. Time-Dependent Earthquake Forecasts on a Global Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Graves, W. R.

    2014-12-01

    We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged ("Poisson") forecast. A variety of statistical and fault-system models have been discussed for use in computing forecast probabilities. An example is the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, which has been using fault-based models to compute conditional probabilities in California since 1988. An example of a forecast is the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS), which is based on the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) magnitude-frequency law, the Omori aftershock law, and Poisson statistics. The method discussed in this talk is based on the observation that GR statistics characterize seismicity for all space and time. Small magnitude event counts (quake counts) are used as "markers" for the approach of large events. More specifically, if the GR b-value = 1, then for every 1000 M>3 earthquakes, one expects 1 M>6 earthquake. So if ~1000 M>3 events have occurred in a spatial region since the last M>6 earthquake, another M>6 earthquake should be expected soon. In physics, event count models have been called natural time models, since counts of small events represent a physical or natural time scale characterizing the system dynamics. In a previous research, we used conditional Weibull statistics to convert event counts into a temporal probability for a given fixed region. In the present paper, we move belyond a fixed region, and develop a method to compute these Natural Time Weibull (NTW) forecasts on a global scale, using an internally consistent method, in regions of arbitrary shape and size. We develop and implement these methods on a modern web-service computing platform, which can be found at www.openhazards.com and www.quakesim.org. We also discuss constraints on the User Interface (UI) that follow from practical considerations of site usability.

  5. Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone, Pacific Northwest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heaton, T.H.; Hartzell, S.H.

    1989-01-01

    Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes of Ms???7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakes Mw<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (Mw 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismic P-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

  6. How complete is the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Catalog?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The International Seismological Centre, in collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model effort, has released a new global earthquake catalog, covering the time period from 1900 through the end of 2009. In order to use this catalog for global earthquake studies, I determined the magnitude of completeness (Mc) as a function of time by dividing the earthquakes shallower than 60 km into 7 time periods based on major changes in catalog processing and data availability and applying 4 objective methods to determine Mc, with uncertainties determined by non-parametric bootstrapping. Deeper events were divided into 2 time periods. Due to differences between the 4 methods, the final Mc was determined subjectively by examining the features that each method focused on in both the cumulative and binned magnitude frequency distributions. The time periods and Mc values for shallow events are: 1900-1917, Mc=7.7; 1918-1939, Mc=7.0; 1940-1954, Mc=6.8; 1955-1963, Mc=6.5; 1964-1975, Mc=6.0; 1976-2003, Mc=5.8; and 2004-2009, Mc=5.7. Using these Mc values for the longest time periods they are valid for (e.g. 1918-2009, 1940-2009,…) the shallow data fits a Gutenberg-Richter distribution with b=1.05 and a=8.3, within 1 standard deviation, with no declustering. The exception is for time periods that include 1900-1917 in which there are only 33 events with M≥ Mc and for those few data b=2.15±0.46. That result calls for further investigations for this time period, ideally having a larger number of earthquakes. For deep events, the results are Mc=7.1 for 1900-1963, although the early data are problematic; and Mc=5.7 for 1964-2009. For that later time period, b=0.99 and a=7.3.

  7. Slab pileup in the mantle transition zone and the 30 May 2015 Chichi-jima earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porritt, Robert W.; Yoshioka, Shoichi

    2016-05-01

    The 30 May 2015 Chichi-jima M8 earthquake is one of the largest deep focus earthquakes ever recorded and its depth of 682 km puts it near the base of the mantle transition zone. Before source mechanisms and slip models of this earthquake can be reliably assessed, a better understanding of the tectonic setting and structures of the region near the origin is required. Here we present evidence from receiver functions, a method of isolating subsurface material contrast with converted seismic waves, that the earthquake initiated within the upper mantle transition zone, above a significantly depressed 660 km phase boundary. Additionally, we observe multiple conversions within and below the transition zone, which we associate with seismic waves passing into and out of segments of the subducting Pacific plate. From this, we infer slab material is piling up at the base of the transition zone and segments are penetrating into the lower mantle.

  8. A Computer-Based Subduction-Zone-Earthquake Exercise for Introductory-Geology Classes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shea, James Herbert

    1991-01-01

    Describes the author's computer-based program for a subduction-zone-earthquake exercise. Instructions for conducting the activity and obtaining the program from the author are provided. Written in IBM QuickBasic. (PR)

  9. Deep Continental Crustal Earthquakes and Lithospheric Structure: A Global Synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devlin, S.; Isacks, B. L.

    2007-12-01

    The distribution of earthquake depths within the continental crust defines the seismogenic thickness (TS), over which at least some part of crustal deformation is accommodated by rapid release of stored elastic strains. Intraplate continental seismicity is often thought to be restricted to the upper crust where TS is within the range of 15 to 20 km. This appears consistent with a lithospheric strength profile involving a weak, ductile lower crust located beneath a stronger, brittle upper crust. With the assumption of a strong uppermost mantle lid, this is often referred to the Jelly Sandwich model of lithosphere rheology. Studies in many places, however, document lower crustal earthquakes beneath continents in apparent disagreement with the model. We explore this and related issues through a survey of where and in what tectonic settings deep intraplate earthquakes are well documented in the continental crust. TS reaches Moho depth in many intraplate regions \\--- Sierra Nevada, Colorado Plateau, East African and Baikal Rift Systems, North Island New Zealand, Tien Shan, and the Andean and Alpine forelands. A review of possible deformation mechanisms which could control continental earthquake depth and facilitate seismicity beneath the brittle-ductile transition suggests that the influence of fluids is the only mechanism capable of encouraging earthquake occurrence throughout the continental crust at any tectonic setting. Surface derived fluids can induce pore fluid pressure changes to depths of 25 km and melt-reactions can induce earthquakes at depths throughout continental crust. On a global scale, fluid-enhanced embrittlement is not limited by depth or tectonic environment. We find that deep crustal earthquakes occur where the lithosphere is in a transitional state between primarily stable (e.g., shields) and highly deformed (e.g., U.S. Basin and Range or Southern California). Observations of relative intensity of tectonic deformation and regional percent strain

  10. An updated global earthquake catalogue for stable continental regions: reassessing the correlation with ancient rifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulte, Saskia M.; Mooney, Walter D.

    2005-06-01

    We present an updated global earthquake catalogue for stable continental regions (SCRs; i.e. intraplate earthquakes) that is available on the Internet. Our database contains information on location, magnitude, seismic moment and focal mechanisms for over 1300 M (moment magnitude) >= 4.5 historic and instrumentally recorded crustal events. Using this updated earthquake database in combination with a recently published global catalogue of rifts, we assess the correlation of intraplate seismicity with ancient rifts on a global scale. Each tectonic event is put into one of five categories based on location: (i) interior rifts/taphrogens, (ii) rifted continental margins, (iii) non-rifted crust, (iv) possible interior rifts and (v) possible rifted margins. We find that approximately 27 per cent of all events are classified as interior rifts (i), 25 per cent are rifted continental margins (ii), 36 per cent are within non-rifted crust (iii) and 12 per cent (iv and v) remain uncertain. Thus, over half (52 per cent) of all events are associated with rifted crust, although within the continental interiors (i.e. away from continental margins), non-rifted crust has experienced more earthquakes than interior rifts. No major change in distribution is found if only large (M>= 6.0) earthquakes are considered. The largest events (M>= 7.0) however, have occurred predominantly within rifts (50 per cent) and continental margins (43 per cent). Intraplate seismicity is not distributed evenly. Instead several zones of concentrated seismicity seem to exist. This is especially true for interior rifts/taphrogens, where a total of only 12 regions are responsible for 74 per cent of all events and as much as 98 per cent of all seismic moment released in that category. Of the four rifts/taphrogens that have experienced the largest earthquakes, seismicity within the Kutch rift, India, and the East China rift system, may be controlled by diffuse plate boundary deformation more than by the presence

  11. An updated global earthquake catalogue for stable continental regions: Reassessing the correlation with ancient rifts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schulte, S.M.; Mooney, W.D.

    2005-01-01

    We present an updated global earthquake catalogue for stable continental regions (SCRs; i.e. intraplate earthquakes) that is available on the Internet. Our database contains information on location, magnitude, seismic moment and focal mechanisms for over 1300 M (moment magnitude) ??? 4.5 historic and instrumentally recorded crustal events. Using this updated earthquake database in combination with a recently published global catalogue of rifts, we assess the correlation of intraplate seismicity with ancient rifts on a global scale. Each tectonic event is put into one of five categories based on location: (i) interior rifts/taphrogens, (ii) rifted continental margins, (iii) non-rifted crust, (iv) possible interior rifts and (v) possible rifted margins. We find that approximately 27 per cent of all events are classified as interior rifts (i), 25 per cent are rifted continental margins (ii), 36 per cent are within non-rifted crust (iii) and 12 per cent (iv and v) remain uncertain. Thus, over half (52 per cent) of all events are associated with rifted crust, although within the continental interiors (i.e. away from continental margins), non-rifted crust has experienced more earthquakes than interior rifts. No major change in distribution is found if only large (M ??? 6.0) earthquakes are considered. The largest events (M ??? 7.0) however, have occurred predominantly within rifts (50 per cent) and continental margins (43 per cent). Intraplate seismicity is not distributed evenly. Instead several zones of concentrated seismicity seem to exist. This is especially true for interior rifts/taphrogens, where a total of only 12 regions are responsible for 74 per cent of all events and as much as 98 per cent of all seismic moment released in that category. Of the four rifts/taphrogens that have experienced the largest earthquakes, seismicity within the Kutch rift, India, and the East China rift system, may be controlled by diffuse plate boundary deformation more than by the

  12. Inelastic response of compliant fault zones to nearby earthquakes in three dimensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Jingqian; Duan, Benchun

    2014-02-01

    Using dynamic modeling of earthquake rupture on a strike-slip fault and seismic wave propagation in a three dimensional inhomogeneous elastoplastic medium, we investigate the inelastic response of compliant fault zones to nearby earthquakes. We primarily examine the plastic strain distribution within the fault zone and the displacement field that characterizes the effects of the presence of the fault zone. We find that when the fault zone rocks are close to failure in the prestress field, plastic strain occurs along the entire fault zone near the Earth's surface and some portions of the fault zone in the extensional quadrant at depth, while the remaining portion deforms elastically. Plastic strain enhances the surface displacement of the fault zone, and the enhancement in the extensional quadrant is stronger than that in the compressive quadrant. Inelastic response may be distinguished from elastic response by sympathetic motion (or reduced retrograde motion) exhibited in the fault-parallel horizontal surface displacement in conjunction with enhanced vertical surface displacement in a strike-slip faulting environment. These findings suggest that taking into account both elastic and inelastic deformation of fault zones to nearby earthquakes may improve our estimations of fault zone structure and properties from small-scale surface deformation signals. Furthermore, identifying the inelastic response of nearby fault zones to large earthquakes may allow us to place some constraints on the absolute stress level in the crust.

  13. The potential for supershear earthquakes in damaged fault zones - theory and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Yihe; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Helmberger, Don V.

    2016-01-01

    The potential for strong ground shaking in large earthquakes partly depends on how fast the earthquake rupture propagates. It is observed that strike-slip earthquakes usually propagate at speeds slower than the Rayleigh wave speed (vR) but occasionally jump to speeds faster than the S wave speed (vs), or supershear speeds. Supershear earthquakes can be more catastrophic and cause unusually large ground motions at long distances. Here we use both fully dynamic rupture simulations and high-resolution seismic observations to show that supershear earthquakes can be induced by damaged fault zones, the low-velocity layers of damaged rocks that typically exist around major faults and serve as waveguides for high-frequency energy. In contrast to supershear ruptures in homogeneous media, supershear ruptures in damaged fault zones can occur under relatively low fault stress and propagate stably at speeds within the range usually considered as unstable.

  14. A new reference global instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900-2009)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Giacomo, D.; Engdahl, B.; Bondar, I.; Storchak, D. A.; Villasenor, A.; Bormann, P.; Lee, W.; Dando, B.; Harris, J.

    2011-12-01

    For seismic hazard studies on a global and/or regional scale, accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of seismicity, the magnitude-frequency relation and the maximum magnitudes is of fundamental importance. However, such information is normally not homogeneous (or not available) for the various seismically active regions of the Earth. To achieve the GEM objectives (www.globalquakemodel.org) of calculating and communicating earthquake risk worldwide, an improved reference global instrumental catalogue for large earthquakes spanning the entire 100+ years period of instrumental seismology is an absolute necessity. To accomplish this task, we apply the most up-to-date techniques and standard observatory practices for computing the earthquake location and magnitude. In particular, the re-location procedure benefits both from the depth determination according to Engdahl and Villaseñor (2002), and the advanced technique recently implemented at the ISC (Bondár and Storchak, 2011) to account for correlated error structure. With regard to magnitude, starting from the re-located hypocenters, the classical surface and body-wave magnitudes are determined following the new IASPEI standards and by using amplitude-period data of phases collected from historical station bulletins (up to 1970), which were not available in digital format before the beginning of this work. Finally, the catalogue will provide moment magnitude values (including uncertainty) for each seismic event via seismic moment, via surface wave magnitude or via other magnitude types using empirical relationships. References Engdahl, E.R., and A. Villaseñor (2002). Global seismicity: 1900-1999. In: International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, eds. W.H.K. Lee, H. Kanamori, J.C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, Part A, 665-690, Academic Press, San Diego. Bondár, I., and D. Storchak (2011). Improved location procedures at the International Seismological Centre, Geophys. J. Int., doi:10.1111/j

  15. Aftereffects of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes: Potential Tsunami Hazards along the Japan Sea Coast.

    PubMed

    Minoura, Koji; Sugawara, Daisuke; Yamanoi, Tohru; Yamada, Tsutomu

    2015-01-01

    The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake is a typical subduction-zone earthquake and is the 4th largest earthquake after the beginning of instrumental observation of earthquakes in the 19th century. In fact, the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake displaced the northeast Japan island arc horizontally and vertically. The displacement largely changed the tectonic situation of the arc from compressive to tensile. The 9th century in Japan was a period of natural hazards caused by frequent large-scale earthquakes. The aseismic tsunamis that inflicted damage on the Japan Sea coast in the 11th century were related to the occurrence of massive earthquakes that represented the final stage of a period of high seismic activity. Anti-compressive tectonics triggered by the subduction-zone earthquakes induced gravitational instability, which resulted in the generation of tsunamis caused by slope failing at the arc-back-arc boundary. The crustal displacement after the 2011 earthquake infers an increased risk of unexpected local tsunami flooding in the Japan Sea coastal areas. PMID:26399180

  16. Interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones, southern california: triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals.

    PubMed

    Sanders, C O

    1993-05-14

    Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences. PMID:17818388

  17. Global S-wave tomography using receiver pairs: an alternative to get rid of earthquake mislocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaroli, C.; Lévêque, J.-J.; Schuberth, B. S. A.; Duputel, Z.; Nolet, G.

    2014-11-01

    Global seismic tomography suffers from uncertainties in earthquake parameters routinely published in seismic catalogues. In particular, errors in earthquake location and origin-time may lead to strong biases in measured body wave delay-times and significantly pollute tomographic models. Common ways of dealing with this issue are to incorporate source parameters as additional unknowns into the linear tomographic equations, or to seek combinations of data to minimize the influence of source mislocations. We propose an alternative, physically-based method to desensitize direct S-wave delay-times to errors in earthquake location and origin-time. Our approach takes advantage of the fact that mislocation delay-time biases depend to first order on the earthquake-receiver azimuth, and to second order on the epicentral distance. Therefore, for every earthquake, we compute S-wave differential delay-times between optimized receiver pairs, such that a large part of their mislocation delay-time biases cancels out (for example origin-time fully subtracts out), while the difference of their sensitivity kernels remains sensitive to the model parameters of interest. Considering realistic, randomly distributed source mislocation vectors, as well as various levels of data noise and different synthetic Earths, we demonstrate that mislocation-related model errors are highly reduced when inverting for such differential delay-times, compared to absolute ones. The reduction is particularly rewarding for imaging the upper-mantle and transition zone. We conclude that using optimized receiver pairs is a suitable, low cost alternative to get rid of errors on earthquake location and origin-time for teleseismic direct S-wave traveltimes. Moreover, it can partly remove unilateral rupture propagation effects in cross-correlation delay-times, since they are similar to mislocation effects.

  18. Global S-Wave Tomography Using Receiver Pairs: An Alternative to Get Rid of Earthquake Mislocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leveque, J. J.; Zaroli, C.; Schuberth, B. S. A.; Duputel, Z.; Nolet, G.

    2014-12-01

    Global seismic tomography suffers from uncertainties in earthquake parameters routinely published in seismic catalogues. In particular, errors in earthquake location and origin-time may lead to strong biases in measured body-wave delay-times and significantly pollute tomographic models. Common ways of dealing with this issue are to incorporate source parameters as additional unknowns into the linear tomographic equations, or to seek combinations of data to minimise the influence of source mislocations.We propose an alternative, physically-based method to desensitise direct S-wave delay-times to errors in earthquake location and origin-time. Our approach takes advantage of the fact that mislocation delay-time biases depend to first order on the earthquake-receiver azimuth, and to second order on the epicentral distance. Therefore, for every earthquake, we compute S-wave differential delay-times between optimised receiver pairs, such that a large part of their mislocation delay-time biases cancels out (for example origin-time fully subtracts out), while the difference of their sensitivity kernels remains sensitive to the model parameters of interest. Considering realistic, randomly distributed source mislocation vectors, as well as various levels of data noise and different synthetic Earths, we demonstrate that mislocation-related model errors are highly reduced when inverting for such differential delay-times, compared to absolute ones. The reduction is particularly rewarding for imaging the upper-mantle and transition-zone.We conclude that using optimised receiver pairs is a suitable, low cost alternative to get rid of errors on earthquake location and origin-time for teleseismic direct S-wave traveltimes. Moreover, it can partly remove unilateral rupture propagation effects in cross-correlation delay-times, since they are similar to mislocation effects.

  19. Investigations of fault zone behavior during earthquake cycles using hydrology and geodesy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Lian

    This study investigates processes of three stages of the earthquake cycle: interseismic, post-seismic and coseismic periods. For the inter-seismic period, this thesis explored the inter-seismic strain accumulation on the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica integrating InSAR and GPS data. This work demonstrates that the InSAR data can be used to recover small deformation signal of long wavelength with refined resolution when integrated with GPS observations. The spatial correlation between the distribution of coupling and the locations of slow slip events and low frequency events suggests that fluid and frictional heterogeneities may be the two main factors influencing coupling variations in the Nicoya, Costa Rica subduction zone. For the coseismic period, this thesis studied the coseismic friction associated with the 2008 MW 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake using repeat measured temperature profiles across the fault slip zone, since measuring the heating signal on the fault zone after an earthquake is the most direct and efficient way to quantify the coseismic friction. The long-term temperature records following the Wenchuan Earthquake are consistent with low coseismic friction. The observed thermal anomalies above and within the fault zone cannot be the frictional transient from faulting and are likely a result of advective flow. For the post-seismic period, this thesis investigated the healing process after the Wenchuan Earthquake. The hydrogeologic properties of the fault zone can serve as a proxy for fracturing and the post-seismic recovery of fault strength, which is one of the major unconstrained elements of the earthquake cycle. We used continuous monitoring of borehole water response to tidal forcing to measure the continuous in-situ permeability properties of the Wenchuan Earthquake fault damage zone. Observed post-seismic episodically decreasing permeability over time indicates an interaction between the healing and damage in the aftermath of a major earthquake.

  20. Toward a Global Model for Predicting Earthquake-Induced Landslides in Near-Real Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nowicki, M. A.; Wald, D. J.; Hamburger, M. W.; Hearne, M.; Thompson, E.

    2013-12-01

    We present a newly developed statistical model for estimating the distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides in near-real time, which is designed for use in the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) and ShakeCast systems. We use standardized estimates of ground shaking from the USGS ShakeMap Atlas 2.0 to develop an empirical landslide probability model by combining shaking estimates with broadly available landslide susceptibility proxies, including topographic slope, surface geology, and climatic parameters. While the initial model was based on four earthquakes for which digitally mapped landslide inventories and well constrained ShakeMaps are available--the Guatemala (1976), Northridge, California (1994), Chi-Chi, Taiwan (1999), and Wenchuan, China (2008) earthquakes, our improved model includes observations from approximately ten other events from a variety of tectonic and geomorphic settings for which we have obtained landslide inventories. Using logistic regression, this database is used to build a predictive model of the probability of landslide occurrence. We assess the performance of the regression model using statistical goodness-of-fit metrics to determine which combination of the tested landslide proxies provides the optimum prediction of observed landslides while minimizing ';false alarms' in non-landslide zones. Our initial results indicate strong correlations with peak ground acceleration and maximum slope, and weaker correlations with surface geological and soil wetness proxies. In terms of the original four events included, the global model predicts landslides most accurately when applied to the Wenchuan and Chi-Chi events, and less accurately when applied to the Northridge and Guatemala datasets. Combined with near-real time ShakeMaps, the model can be used to make generalized predictions of whether or not landslides are likely to occur (and if so, where) for future earthquakes around the globe, and these estimates

  1. Large, pre-digital earthquakes of the Bonin-Mariana subduction zone, 1930-1974

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okal, Emile A.; Reymond, Dominique; Hongsresawat, Sutatcha

    2013-02-01

    The Bonin-Mariana subduction zone is the end-member example of a decoupled system, as described by Uyeda and Kanamori (1979), with no interplate thrust solutions of moments greater than 8 × 1025 dyn cm known in the CMT catalog, although a number of earthquakes are reported with assigned magnitudes around or above 7, both during the WWSSN period and the historical pre-1962 era. We present a systematic study of these events, including relocation and inversion of moment tensors. We obtain 15 new moment tensor solutions, featuring a wide variety of focal mechanisms both in the fore-arc and the outer rise, and most importantly a shallow-dipping interplate thrust mechanism with a moment of 4 × 1027 dyn cm for the event of 28 December 1940 at a location 175 km East of Pagan. Our results show that the modern CMT catalog still undersamples the seismicity of the Mariana arc, which is thus not immune to relatively large, albeit rare, interplate thrust events, with moments 40 times that of the largest Global-CMT solution. Frequency-magnitude relations would then suggest a return time of 320 years for a magnitude 8 interplate thrust faulting earthquake in the Bonin-Mariana system.

  2. Fault Zone Drainage, Heating and Melting During Earthquake Slip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rempel, A. W.; Rice, J. R.; Jacques, L. M.

    2003-12-01

    The expansion of pore water caused by frictional heating during large crustal events provides a powerful weakening mechanism (Sibson, 1973; Lachenbruch, 1980). It may explain the magnitude of seismically inferred fracture energy and aspects of its variation with increased slip (Abercrombie and Rice, 2003; Rice et al., 2003; Rice, this section, 2003). The weakening is mediated by the effects of fluid transport, which are sensitive to the permeability structure of the fault zone and its modification by damage induced by the passing rupture front (Poliakov et al., 2002), as well as by the increase in pore pressure itself. Higher permeabilities allow partial drainage to occur, so that enough strength remains for the heat generated to cause partial melting of the fault gouge at large enough slip. We use recent field and laboratory data for fluid transport through pressurized fault gouge (e.g. Lockner et al., 2000; Wibberley and Shimamoto, 2003) to motivate models for drainage and melting during earthquake slip. A dramatic illustration of the role of drainage is provided by an idealized model in which we assume that a freshly damaged, highly permeable region extends right up to a localized shear zone of thickness ho=5 mm, with fixed porosity n and much lower permeability k. At 7 km depth, for n=0.02 and k=10-19 m2, the slip distance required to reach the onset of melting at 750oC is approximately 0.4 m for a constant friction coefficient of f=0.6. At 14 km depth, for n=0.01 and k=10-20 m2, the same temperature is reached after only 0.1 m of slip. Yet more efficient drainage might occur due to the permeability increases that accompany reductions in the effective stress, so that even more rapid temperature increases would be predicted. For example, with ten times higher k, melting begins after 0.1 m slip at 7 km depth and just 0.05 m at 14 km. At onset of melting the high melt viscosity impedes further drainage and, with increasing melt fraction, inter-particle contact is

  3. Detection of change points in underlying earthquake rates, with application to global mega-earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Touati, Sarah; Naylor, Mark; Main, Ian

    2016-02-01

    The recent spate of mega-earthquakes since 2004 has led to speculation of an underlying change in the global `background' rate of large events. At a regional scale, detecting changes in background rate is also an important practical problem for operational forecasting and risk calculation, for example due to volcanic processes, seismicity induced by fluid injection or withdrawal, or due to redistribution of Coulomb stress after natural large events. Here we examine the general problem of detecting changes in background rate in earthquake catalogues with and without correlated events, for the first time using the Bayes factor as a discriminant for models of varying complexity. First we use synthetic Poisson (purely random) and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models (which also allow for earthquake triggering) to test the effectiveness of many standard methods of addressing this question. These fall into two classes: those that evaluate the relative likelihood of different models, for example using Information Criteria or the Bayes Factor; and those that evaluate the probability of the observations (including extreme events or clusters of events) under a single null hypothesis, for example by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and `runs' tests, and a variety of Z-score tests. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness among these tests varies widely. Information Criteria worked at least as well as the more computationally expensive Bayes factor method, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and runs tests proved to be the relatively ineffective in reliably detecting a change point. We then apply the methods tested to events at different thresholds above magnitude M ≥ 7 in the global earthquake catalogue since 1918, after first declustering the catalogue. This is most effectively done by removing likely correlated events using a much lower magnitude threshold (M ≥ 5), where triggering is much more obvious. We find no strong evidence that the background rate of large

  4. Meeting the Challenge of Earthquake Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global Earthquake Model GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zschau, J.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquake risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to earthquakes in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional earthquake risk models anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of earthquake risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of earthquake risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global Earthquake Model (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate earthquake risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.

  5. Evidence for large prehistoric earthquakes in the northern New Madrid Seismic Zone, central United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Li, Y.; Schweig, E.S.; Tuttle, M.P.; Ellis, M.A.

    1998-01-01

    We surveyed the area north of New Madris, Missouri, for prehistoric liquefaction deposits and uncovered two new sites with evidence of pre-1811 earthquakes. At one site, located about 20 km northeast of New Madrid, Missouri, radiocarbon dating indicates that an upper sand blow was probably deposited after A.D. 1510 and a lower sand blow was deposited prior to A.D. 1040. A sand blow at another site about 45 km northeast of New Madrid, Missouri, is dated as likely being deposited between A.D.55 and A.D. 1620 and represents the northernmost recognized expression of prehistoric liquefaction likely related to the New Madrid seismic zone. This study, taken together with other data, supports the occurrence of at least two earthquakes strong enough to indcue liquefaction or faulting before A.D. 1811, and after A.D. 400. One earthquake probably occurred around AD 900 and a second earthquake occurred around A.D. 1350. The data are not yet sufficient to estimate the magnitudes of the causative earthquakes for these liquefaction deposits although we conclude that all of the earthquakes are at least moment magnitude M ~6.8, the size of the 1895 Charleston, Missouri, earthquake. A more rigorous estimate of the number and sizes of prehistoric earthquakes in the New Madrid sesmic zone awaits evaluation of additional sites.

  6. Slip zone and energetics of a large earthquake from the Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project.

    PubMed

    Ma, Kuo-Fong; Tanaka, Hidemi; Song, Sheng-Rong; Wang, Chien-Ying; Hung, Jih-Hao; Tsai, Yi-Ben; Mori, Jim; Song, Yen-Fang; Yeh, Eh-Chao; Soh, Wonn; Sone, Hiroki; Kuo, Li-Wei; Wu, Hung-Yu

    2006-11-23

    Determining the seismic fracture energy during an earthquake and understanding the associated creation and development of a fault zone requires a combination of both seismological and geological field data. The actual thickness of the zone that slips during the rupture of a large earthquake is not known and is a key seismological parameter in understanding energy dissipation, rupture processes and seismic efficiency. The 1999 magnitude-7.7 earthquake in Chi-Chi, Taiwan, produced large slip (8 to 10 metres) at or near the surface, which is accessible to borehole drilling and provides a rare opportunity to sample a fault that had large slip in a recent earthquake. Here we present the retrieved cores from the Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project and identify the main slip zone associated with the Chi-Chi earthquake. The surface fracture energy estimated from grain sizes in the gouge zone of the fault sample was directly compared to the seismic fracture energy determined from near-field seismic data. From the comparison, the contribution of gouge surface energy to the earthquake breakdown work is quantified to be 6 per cent. PMID:17122854

  7. Near-surface versus fault zone damage following the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake: Observation and simulation of repeating earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Furumura, Takashi; Rubinstein, Justin

    2015-04-01

    We observe crustal damage and its subsequent recovery caused by the 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan. Analysis of repeating earthquakes in Hualien region, ~70 km east of the Chi-Chi earthquake, shows a remarkable change in wave propagation beginning in the year 2000, revealing damage within the fault zone and distributed across the near surface. We use moving window cross correlation to identify a dramatic decrease in the waveform similarity and delays in the S wave coda. The maximum delay is up to 59 ms, corresponding to a 7.6% velocity decrease averaged over the wave propagation path. The waveform changes on either side of the fault are distinct. They occur in different parts of the waveforms, affect different frequencies, and the size of the velocity reductions is different. Using a finite difference method, we simulate the effect of postseismic changes in the wavefield by introducing S wave velocity anomaly in the fault zone and near the surface. The models that best fit the observations point to pervasive damage in the near surface and deep, along-fault damage at the time of the Chi-Chi earthquake. The footwall stations show the combined effect of near-surface and the fault zone damage, where the velocity reduction (2-7%) is twofold to threefold greater than the fault zone damage observed in the hanging wall stations. The physical models obtained here allow us to monitor the temporal evolution and recovering process of the Chi-Chi fault zone damage.

  8. Chimera States in Earthquake Sequencing: Preliminary Results from Global Seismic Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasudevan, Kris; Cavers, Michael S.

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes are occurrences resulting from significant stress-field alterations among faults. In general, spatio-temporal stress-field fluctuations are complex. They evolve continuously. We propose that they are akin to the dynamics of the collective behaviour of weakly-coupled non-linear "oscillators". Here, an oscillation refers to a fault-system reaching a threshold value for an earthquake occurrence at a given time and then, falling into a quiescence period during which the stress-build-up reoccurs in a prescribed manner. The duration of the quiescence period varies from one fault system to the other, depending on the forces behind it. Since mapping of global stress-field fluctuations in real time at all scales is an impossible task, we consider an earthquake zone as a proxy for a collection of weakly-coupled oscillators the dynamics of which would befit the ubiquitous Kuramoto model. In the present work, we apply the Kuramoto model to understand the non-linear dynamics on a directed graph of a sequence of global earthquakes. For directed graphs with certain properties, the Kuramoto model yields either synchronization or asynchronization. Inclusion of non-local effects evokes the occurrence of chimera states or the co-existence of synchronous and asynchronous behaviour of oscillators. In this presentation, we show how we build the model for directed graphs derived from global seismicity data. Then, we present conditions under which chimera states could occur and subsequently, point out the role of Kuramoto model in understanding the evolution of synchronous and asynchronous regions. We interpret our results with the spectral properties of directed graphs.

  9. Static and dynamic parameters of deep earthquakes from global seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poli, Piero; Prieto, German

    2016-04-01

    We study the radiated energy and rupture duration for more than 500 deep and intermediate depth earthquakes (depth>50km and M>5.5). The average source time function is obtained by stacking broadband P-wave pulses recorded globally and used to measure the rupture durations, by comparing alternative versions of the same waveform. The radiated energy is obtained by integration of velocity spectrum observed at each station and corrected for radiation pattern and propagation effects. The global analysis of the rupture duration show how beyond the scattering of the scaled duration seen on the data, the depth reduction of the duration can principally be explained by incremental shear velocity with depth. Furthermore, the duration to moment comparison shows how 1/3 scaling is not valid for deep seismicity, suggesting a difference in dynamic for small and large events. The existence of a different scaling law is further corroborated by the analysis of scaled energy, which is not constant as function of moment. The radiated energy and rupture duration are combined to derive stress drop, apparent stress, efficiency and other parameters of the rupture. The global analysis of these parameters suggests how deep and intermediate depth events are systematically different from shallow earthquakes. We further derive rupture velocity for some of the studied events, to get further information on the dynamic properties of the rupture process. Coherent variation of the derived rupture parameters are seen when along strike events are analyzed by clusters, suggesting how deep earthquakes cannot be reduced in a single group, while a diversity of deep and intermediate depth earthquakes should exists. Comparison of our measures with independent geophysical properties of slabs as plate age, thermal parameter and convergence rate is done, in order to unravel any possible relation between the subudction zone style and its associated seismicity.

  10. Automatic picking and earthquake relocation for the Antilles subduction zone (1972-2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massin, F.; Amorèse, D.; Bengoubou-Valerius, M.; Bernard, M.

    2013-12-01

    Locations for earthquake recorded in the Antilles subduction zone are processed separately by regional observatories and ISC. There is no earthquake location catalog available compiling all available first arrival data. We aim to produce a best complete earthquake catalog by merging all available first arrival data for better constrains on earthquake locations. ISC provides the first arrival data of 29243 earthquakes (magnitude range from 1.4 to 6.4) recorded by PRSN (Porto Rico), SRC (British West Indies), and form FUNVISIS (Venezuela). IPGP provided the first arrival data of 68718 earthquakes (magnitude from 0.1 to 7.5) recorded by OVSG (Guadeloupe, 53226 earthquakes since 1981) and by OVSM (Martinique, 29931 earthquakes since 1972). IPGP also provides the accelerometer waveform data of the GIS-RAP network in the Antilles. The final catalog contains 84979 earthquakes between 1972 and 2013, 24528 of which we compiled additional data. We achieved automatic picking using the Component Energy Correlation Method. The CECM provide high precision phase detection, a realistic estimation of picking error and realistic weights that can be used with manual pick weights. The CECM add an average of 3 P-waves and 2 S-waves arrivals to 3846 earthquakes recoded by the GIS-RAP network since 2002. Cluster analysis, earthquake local tomography and relative locations are to be applied in order to image active faulting and migration of seismicity. This will help to understand seismic coupling in the seismogenic zone as well as triggering mechanisms of intermediate depth seismicity like fluid migration beneath the volcanic arc.

  11. ISC-GEM: Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009) I. Location and Seismicity Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bondar, I.; Engdahl, E. R.; Villasenor, A.; Storchak, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    We present the final results of a two-year project sponsored by the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) Foundation. The ISC-GEM global catalogue consists of some 19 thousand instrumentally recorded, moderate to large earthquakes, spanning 110 years of seismicity. We relocated all events in the catalogue using a two-tier approach. The EHB location methodology (Engdahl et al., 1998) was applied first to obtain improved hypocentres with special focus on the depth determination. The locations were further refined in the next step by fixing the depths to those from the EHB analysis and applying the new ISC location algorithm (Bondár and Storchak, 2011) that reduces location bias by accounting for correlated travel-time prediction error structure. To facilitate the relocation effort, some 900,000 seismic P and S wave arrival-time data were added to the ISC database for the period between 1904 and 1963, either from original station bulletins in the ISC archive or by digitizing the scanned images of the ISS bulletin (Villaseñor and Engdahl, 2005; 2007). Although no substantial amount of new phase data were acquired for the modern period (1964-2009), the number of phases used in the location has still increased by 3 million, owing to fact that both the EHB and ISC locators use all ak135 (Kennett et al., 1995) phases in the location. We show that the relocation effort yielded substantially improved locations, especially in the first half of the 20th century; we demonstrate significant improvements in focal depth estimates in subduction zones and other seismically active regions; and we show that the ISC-GEM catalogue provides an improved view of 110 years of global seismicity of the Earth. The ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue represents the final product of one of the ten global components in the GEM program, and will be made available to researchers at the ISC (www.isc.ac.uk) website.

  12. Tsunami potential assessment based on rupture zones, focal mechanisms and repeat times of strong earthquakes in the major Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agalos, Apostolos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Kijko, Andrzej; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Smit, Ansie; Triantafyllou, Ioanna

    2016-04-01

    In the major Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone, extended from Azores islands in the west to the easternmost Mediterranean Sea in the east, including the Marmara and Black Seas, a number of 22 tsunamigenic zones have been determined from historical and instrumental tsunami documentation. Although some tsunamis were produced by volcanic activity or landslides, the majority of them was generated by strong earthquakes. Since the generation of seismic tsunamis depends on several factors, like the earthquake size, focal depth and focal mechanism, the study of such parameters is of particular importance for the assessment of the potential for the generation of future tsunamis. However, one may not rule out the possibility for tsunami generation in areas outside of the 22 zones determined so far. For the Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone we have compiled a catalogue of strong, potentially tsunamigenic (focal depth less than 100 km) historical earthquakes from various data bases and other sources. The lateral areas of rupture zones of these earthquakes were determined. Rupture zone is the area where the strain after the earthquake has dropped substantially with respect the strain before the earthquake. Aftershock areas were assumed to determine areas of rupture zones for instrumental earthquakes. For historical earthquakes macroseismic criteria were used such as spots of higher-degree seismic intensity and of important ground failures. For the period of instrumental seismicity, focal mechanism solutions from CMT, EMMA and other data bases were selected for strong earthquakes. From the geographical distribution of seismic rupture zones and the corresponding focal mechanisms in the entire Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone we determined potentially tsunamigenic zones regardless they are known to have produced seismic tsunamis in the past or not. An attempt has been made to calculate in each one of such zones the repeat times of strong

  13. Magnetotelluric studies in the epicenter zone of 2001, Bhuj earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohan, Kapil; Rastogi, B. K.; Chaudhary, Peush

    2015-02-01

    Some earthquakes to Mw5 level are occurring along two faults viz. Kachchh Mainland Fault and South Wagad Fault near the epicenter of Mw7.7 Bhuj earthquake of 2001. These faults are not the causative fault of the 2001 earthquake and suspect for future large earthquake. In absence of detail geophysical surveys, the sub-surface orientation of these faults was not known and MT profiles have proved useful in delineating the subsurface trends. Two MT profiles having lengths of 24 km and 15 km (with an inter station spacing of 1-3 km) are taken about 10 km east and west of the epicenter of Mw7.7, 2001 Bhuj earthquake, respectively. The profiles are in nearly N-S direction to detect the faults which trend E-W in the area. From 2-D inversion of MT data of 23 stations, it is found that there are two distinctive conductive features matching with the South Wagad Fault and Kachchh Mainland Fault south of it both being about 10 km apart. The South Wagad Fault is seen extending to Banni low lying area 30 km west of the present trace.

  14. Critical Zone Science and Global Societal Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldhaber, M. B.; Banwart, S. A.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's Critical Zone (CZ) is the thin outer veneer of our planet from the top of the tree canopy to the bottom of our drinking water aquifers that supports almost all human activity. Despite its fundamental importance to terrestrial life, understanding of the operation of the coupled geologic, hydrologic, topographic, and biotic CZ processes across time and space is far from complete. These interactions are complex and they establish a mechanistic 'chain of impact' that transmits the effects of environmental change throughout the CZ. Characterization of these processes is made more urgent by the fact that globally, the CZ is experiencing ever-increasing pressure from growth in human population and wealth. Within the next four decades, demand for food and fuel is expected to double along with a more than 50% increase in demand for clean water. Understanding, predicting and managing intensification of land use and associated economic services, while mitigating and adapting to rapid climate change, is now one of the most pressing societal challenges of the 21st century. In this talk we summarize the profound global societal impacts to the Earth's near surface arising from exponential human population growth, increasing affluence, and technological advance, to provide context for discussions on constructing an array of CZ observatories to both characterize fundamental critical zone processes and forecast the effects of planetary change. We will suggest goals and options relevant to planning for a future international array of CZ observatories and a research agenda that matches the urgency of the projected resource demands and environmental pressures of the coming four decades.

  15. Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Atkinson, G.M.; Boore, D.M.

    2003-01-01

    Ground-motion relations for earthquakes that occur in subduction zones are an important input to seismic-hazard analyses in many parts of the world. In the Cascadia region (Washington, Oregon, northern California, and British Columbia), for example, there is a significant hazard from megathrust earthquakes along the subduction interface and from large events within the subducting slab. These hazards are in addition to the hazard from shallow earthquakes in the overlying crust. We have compiled a response spectra database from thousands of strong-motion recordings from events of moment magnitude (M) 5-8.3 occurring in subduction zones around the world, including both interface and in-slab events. The 2001 M 6.8 Nisqually and 1999 M 5.9 Satsop earthquakes are included in the database, as are many records from subduction zones in Japan (Kyoshin-Net data), Mexico (Guerrero data), and Central America. The size of the database is four times larger than that available for previous empirical regressions to determine ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes. The large dataset enables improved determination of attenuation parameters and magnitude scaling, for both interface and in-slab events. Soil response parameters are also better determined by the data. We use the database to develop global ground-motion relations for interface and in-slab earthquakes, using a maximum likelihood regression method. We analyze regional variability of ground-motion amplitudes across the global database and find that there are significant regional differences. In particular, amplitudes in Cascadia differ by more than a factor of 2 from those in Japan for the same magnitude, distance, event type, and National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) soil class. This is believed to be due to regional differences in the depth of the soil profile, which are not captured by the NEHRP site classification scheme. Regional correction factors to account for these differences are

  16. Unrevealing the History of Earthquakes and Tsunamis of the Mexican Subduction Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Castillo-Aja, M. D. R.; Cruz, S.; Corona, N.; Rangel Velarde, V.; Lagos, M.

    2014-12-01

    The great earthquakes and tsunamis of the last decades in Sumatra, Chile, and Japan remind us of the need for expanding the record of history of such catastrophic events. It can't be argued that even countries with extensive historical documents and tsunami sand deposits still have unsolved questions on the frequency of them, and the variables that control them along subduction zones. We present here preliminary results of a combined approach using historical archives and multiple proxies of the sedimentary record to unrevealing the history of possible great earthquakes and their tsunamis on the Mexican Subduction zone. The Mexican subduction zone extends over 1000 km long and little is known if the entire subduction zone along the Middle American Trench behaves as one enormous unit rather than in segments that rupture at different frequencies and with different strengths (as the short instrumental record shows). We searched on historical archives and earthquake databases to distinguish tsunamigenic events registered from the 16th century to now along the Jalisco-Colima and Guerrero-Oaxaca coastal stretches. The historical data referred are mostly from the 19th century on since the population on the coast was scarce before. We found 21 earthquakes with tsunamigenic potential, and of those 16 with doubtful to definitive accompanying tsunami on the Jalisco-Colima coast, and 31 tsunamigenic earthquakes on the Oaxaca-Guerrero coast. Evidence of great earthquakes and their tsunamis from the sedimentary record are scarce, perhaps due poor preservation of tsunami deposits in this tropical environment. Nevertheless, we have found evidence for a number of tsunamigenic events, both historical and prehistorical, 1932 and 1400 AD on Jalisco, and 3400 BP, 1789 AD, 1979 ad, and 1985 AD on Guerrero-Oaxaca. We continue working and a number of events are still to be dated. This work would aid in elucidating the history of earthquakes and tsunamis on the Mexican subduction zone.

  17. Air quality in developing world disaster and conflict zones--the case of post-earthquake Haiti.

    PubMed

    Davis, Mary E; Rappaport, Ann

    2014-10-15

    Data on air quality are remarkably limited in the poorest of the world's countries. This is especially true for post-conflict and disaster zones, where international relief efforts focus largely on more salient public health challenges such as water and sanitation, infectious diseases, and housing. Using post-earthquake Haiti as the example case, this commentary explores air quality challenges in the developing world, highlighting concerns related to infrastructure damage from post-conflict and disaster settings. We contend that there is a growing and presently unmet need for further research and attention from the global health community to address these issues. PMID:25058930

  18. Earthquake precise locations catalog for the Lesser Antilles subduction zone (1972-2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massin, Frederick; Amorese, Daniel; Beauducel, Francois; Bengoubou-Valérius, Mendy; Bernard, Marie-Lise; Bertil, Didier

    2014-05-01

    Locations for earthquake recorded in the Lesser Antilles subduction zone are processed separately by regional observatories, NEIC and ISC. There is no earthquake location catalog available compiling all available phase arrival data. We propose a new best complete earthquake catalog by merging all available phase arrival data for better constrains on earthquake locations. ISC provides the phase arrival data of 29243 earthquakes (magnitude range from 1.4 to 6.4) recorded by PRSN (Porto Rico), SRC (British West Indies), and from FUNVISIS (Venezuela). We add phases data from IPGP observatories for 68718 earthquakes from magnitudes 0.1 to 7.5 (OVSG, Guadeloupe, recorded 53226 earthquakes since 1981, and OVSM, Martinique, recorded 29931 earthquakes since 1972). IPGP also provides the accelerometer waveform data of the GIS-RAP network. We achieved automatic picking on the GIS-RAP data using the Component Energy Correlation Method. The CECM provides high precision phase detection, a realistic estimation of picking error and realistic weights that can be used with manual pick weights. The CECM add an average of 3 P-waves and 2 S-waves arrivals to 3846 earthquakes recorded by the GIS-RAP network since 2002. The final catalog contains 84979 earthquakes between 1972 and 2013, 24528 of which we compiled additional data. We achieve earthquake location using NonLinLoc, regional P and S waves data and a set of one dimensional velocity models. We produce improved locations for 22974 earthquakes (better residuals, on equal or larger arrival dataset) and improved duration magnitudes for 6258 earthquakes (using duration data and improved locations). A subset of best constrained 15626 hypocenters (with more than 8 phases and an average RMS of 0.48±0.77s) could be used for structural analysis and earthquake local tomography. Relative locations are to be applied in order to image active faulting. We aim to understand coupling in the seismogenic zone as well as triggering mechanisms of

  19. Simulation of tsunamis from great earthquakes on the cascadia subduction zone.

    PubMed

    Ng, M K; Leblond, P H; Murty, T S

    1990-11-30

    Large earthquakes occur episodically in the Cascadia subduction zone. A numerical model has been used to simulate and assess the hazards of a tsunami generated by a hypothetical earthquake of magnitude 8.5 associated with rupture of the northern sections of the subduction zone. Wave amplitudes on the outer coast are closely related to the magnitude of sea-bottom displacement (5.0 meters). Some amplification, up to a factor of 3, may occur in some coastal embayments. Wave amplitudes in the protected waters of Puget Sound and the Strait of Georgia are predicted to be only about one fifth of those estmated on the outer coast. PMID:17829212

  20. The diversity of intermediate-depth and deep earthquakes revealed by global analysis of rupture duration and radiated seismic energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poli, Piero; Prieto, German

    2015-04-01

    We study the rupture duration and radiated seismic energy of more than 1000 deep and intermediate-depth earthquakes (depth>50km and M>5.5). The average source time function is obtained by stacking broadband P-wave pulses recorded globally and is used to measure the rupture durations, by comparing alternative versions of the same waveform. The radiated energy is obtained by integration the velocity spectrum observed at each station after correction for radiation pattern and propagation effects. The rupture durations show, beyond the scatter of the data, the depth reduction of scaled source duration can be explained by incremental shear velocity with depth. Furthermore, the duration to moment scaling shows that self-similarity not valid for deep seismicity, suggesting a difference in the behavior of small and large earthquakes. The existence of a different scaling law is further corroborated by the analysis of scaled energy, which is not constant as function of moment. The radiated energy and rupture durations are combined to derive stress drop, apparent stress, radiation efficiency and other source parameters. These results indicate a systematic difference between shallow earthquakes and deep and intermediate-depth earthquakes. Along strike variation of the derived source parameters are seen in various subduction zones, suggesting a significant diversity of deep and intermediate depth earthquake behavior. Comparison of our measures with independent geophysical properties of slabs as plate age, thermal parameter and convergence rate is done, in order to unravel any possible relation between the subduction zone style and its associated seismicity.

  1. How Complete is the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Catalog?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, A. J.

    2013-12-01

    In January, 2013, the International Seismological Centre (ISC), in collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) effort, released a new global earthquake catalog, covering the time period from 1900 through the end of 2009. The ISC-GEM catalog effort made substantial improvements over existing catalogs by adding new phase data, relocating all events using one method, and reviewing and revising magnitudes. In order to use this catalog for global earthquake studies, I determined the magnitude of completeness (Mc) as a function of time. First, I divided the catalog into 7 time periods based on major changes in catalog processing and data availability. For each time period, I used 4 objective methods to determine Mc, with uncertainties determined by non-parametric bootstrapping. Due to differences between the 4 methods, the final Mc was determined subjectively by examining the features that each method focused on in both the cumulative and binned magnitude frequency distributions (MFD). Features which were subjectively rejected as correct Mc determinations included complications in the MFD at high magnitudes well above a linear portion of the MFD, large curvature of the MFD at magnitudes below smaller curvatures, and changes in the MFD that were actually in an increase above a Gutenberg-Richter distribution with decreasing magnitude. The high end of the bootstrap confidence range was preferred so that there is 95% confidence that Mc is not underestimated. The time periods and Mc values are: 1900-1917, Mc=7.7; 1918-1939 Mc=6.8; 1940-1954, Mc=6.8; 1955-1963, Mc=6.5; 1964-1975, Mc=6.0; 1976-2003, Mc=5.8; and 2004-2009, Mc=5.7. Using these Mc values for the longest time periods they are valid for (e.g. 1918-2009, 1940-2009,...) the data fits a Gutenberg-Richter relationship with b=1.0 and a=8.3, within 1 std. dev, with no declustering. The exception is for time periods that include 1900-1917 in which there are only 28 events with M≥Mc and the largest event is only

  2. Earthquake rupture extents and coseismic slips promoted by damaged fault zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weng, Huihui; Yang, Hongfeng; Zhang, Zhenguo; Chen, Xiaofei

    2016-06-01

    Here we investigate the effects of damage fault zones on rupture propagation by conducting a series of 3-D dynamic rupture simulations on a planar vertical strike-slip fault. We find that damage fault zones can promote rupture extent and increase earthquake potency. The waves reflected from the bottom of shallow damage fault zones can increase shear stress on the fault and thus promote rupture propagation. In addition, the promotional effects increase with the width and depth extent of damage fault zones. The overall effects of the waves reflected from the fault-parallel side boundaries of damage fault zones are unfavorable for rupture propagation. Therefore, rupture propagation is promoted with the increased width of fault zones due to geometrical spreading effects. Moreover, nonground-breaking ruptures may reach the ground surface with the effects of damage fault zones. Furthermore, along-strike segmented fault zones as suggested by observations could also promote ruptures and may lead to preferred rupture directions if epicenters are close to fault zones. The effects of damage fault zones on rupture propagation hold important implications on assessing earthquake risk.

  3. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  4. Maximum slip in earthquake fault zones, apparent stress, and stick-slip friction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.

    2003-01-01

    The maximum slip, observed or inferred, for a small patch within the larger fault zone of an earthquake is a remarkably well-constrained function of the seismic moment. A large set of maximum slips, mostly derived from slip models of major earthquakes, indicate that this parameter increases according to the cube root of the seismic moment. Consistent with this finding, neither the average slip rate for the patches of maximum slip nor the apparent stresses of earthquakes show any systematic dependence on seismic moment. Maximum average slip rates are several meters per second independent of moment and, for earthquakes in continental crustal settings, the apparent stress is limited to about 10 MPa. Results from stick-slip friction experiments in the laboratory, combined with information about the state of stress in the crust, can be used to predict, quite closely, the maximum slips and maximum average slip rates within the fault zones of major earthquakes as well as their apparent stresses. These findings suggest that stick-slip friction events observed in the laboratory and earthquakes in continental settings, even with large magnitudes, have similar rupture mechanisms.

  5. An Integrated Geospatial System for earthquake precursors assessment in Vrancea tectonic active zone in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.; Savastru, Dan M.

    2015-10-01

    With the development of space-based technologies to measure surface geophysical parameters and deformation at the boundaries of tectonic plates and large faults, earthquake science has entered a new era. Using time series satellite data for earthquake prediction, it is possible to pursue the behaviors of earthquake precursors in the future and to announce early warnings when the differences between the predicted value and the observed value exceed the pre-define threshold value. Starting with almost one week prior to a moderate or strong earthquake a transient thermal infrared rise in LST of several Celsius degrees (oC) and the increased OLR values higher than the normal have been recorded around epicentral areas, function of the magnitude and focal depth, which disappeared after the main shock. Also are recorded associated geomagnetic and ionospheric distrurbances. Vrancea tectonic active zone in Romania is characterized by a high seismic hazard in European- Mediterranean region, being responsible of strong or moderate intermediate depth and normal earthquakes generation on a confined epicentral area. Based on recorded geophysical parameters anomalies was developed an integrated geospatial system for earthquake precursors assessment in Vrancea active seismic zone. This system integrates derived from time series MODIS Terra/Aqua, NOAA-AVHRR, ASTER, Landsat TM/ETM satellite data multi geophysical parameters (land surface temperature -LST, outgoing long-wave radiation- OLR, and mean air temperature- AT as well as geomagnetic and ionospheric data in synergy with in-situ data for surveillance and forecasting of seismic events.

  6. Improving Estimates of Coseismic Subsidence from southern Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes at northern Humboldt Bay, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Padgett, J. S.; Engelhart, S. E.; Hemphill-Haley, E.; Kelsey, H. M.; Witter, R. C.

    2015-12-01

    Geological estimates of subsidence from past earthquakes help to constrain Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake rupture models. To improve subsidence estimates for past earthquakes along the southern CSZ, we apply transfer function analysis on microfossils from 3 intertidal marshes in northern Humboldt Bay, California, ~60 km north of the Mendocino Triple Junction. The transfer function method uses elevation-dependent intertidal foraminiferal and diatom assemblages to reconstruct relative sea-level (RSL) change indicated by shifts in microfossil assemblages. We interpret stratigraphic evidence associated with sudden shifts in microfossils to reflect sudden RSL rise due to subsidence during past CSZ earthquakes. Laterally extensive (>5 km) and sharp mud-over-peat contacts beneath marshes at Jacoby Creek, Mad River Slough, and McDaniel Slough demonstrate widespread earthquake subsidence in northern Humboldt Bay. C-14 ages of plant macrofossils taken from above and below three contacts that correlate across all three sites, provide estimates of the times of subsidence at ~250 yr BP, ~1300 yr BP and ~1700 yr BP. Two further contacts observed at only two sites provide evidence for subsidence during possible CSZ earthquakes at ~900 yr BP and ~1100 yr BP. Our study contributes 20 AMS radiocarbon ages, of identifiable plant macrofossils, that improve estimates of the timing of past earthquakes along the southern CSZ. We anticipate that our results will provide more accurate and precise reconstructions of RSL change induced by southern CSZ earthquakes. Prior to our work, studies in northern Humboldt Bay provided subsidence estimates with vertical uncertainties >±0.5 m; too imprecise to adequately constrain earthquake rupture models. Our method, applied recently in coastal Oregon, has shown that subsidence during past CSZ earthquakes can be reconstructed with a precision of ±0.3m and substantially improves constraints on rupture models used for seismic hazard

  7. Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Earle, Paul; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy

    2009-01-01

    Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

  8. Periodic Viscous Shear Heating Instability in Fine-Grained Shear Zones: Possible Mechanism for Intermediate Depth Earthquakes and Slow Earthquakes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelemen, P. B.; Hirth, G.

    2004-12-01

    creep and grain boundary sliding as a function of stress and strain, and undergoes diffusive growth during diffusion creep. For strain rates ca E-13 per second and initial temperatures ca 600 to 850 C, this model produces periodic viscous shear heating events with periods of 100's of years. Strain rates during these events approach 1 per second as temperatures reach 1400 C, so future models will incorporate inertial terms in the stress. Cooling between events returns the shear zone almost to its initial temperature, but ultimately shear zone temperature between events exceeds 850 C resulting in stable viscous creep. Back of the envelope calculations based on model results support the view that viscous deformation in both shear zone and host will be mainly via grain-size sensitive creep, and thus deformation will remain localized in shear zones. Similarly, we infer that inertial terms will remain small. Future models will test and quantify these inferences. The simple model described above provides an attractive explanation for intermediate-depth earthquakes, especially those in subduction zones that occur in a narrow thermal window (e.g., Hacker et al JGR 2003). We think that a "smoother"periodic instability might be produced via the same mechanism in weaker materials, which could provide a viscous mechanism for some slow earthquakes. By AGU, we will construct a second, simple model using quartz rheology to investigate this. Finally, coupling of viscous shear heating instabilities in the shallow mantle with brittle stick-slip deformation in the weaker, overlying crust may influence earthquake frequency.

  9. Repeating and not so Repeating Large Earthquakes in the Mexican Subduction Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Singh, S.; Iglesias, A.; Perez-Campos, X.

    2013-12-01

    The rupture area and recurrence interval of large earthquakes in the mexican subduction zone are relatively small and almost the entire length of the zone has experienced a large (Mw≥7.0) earthquake in the last 100 years (Singh et al., 1981). Several segments have experienced multiple large earthquakes in this time period. However, as the rupture areas of events prior to 1973 are only approximately known, the recurrence periods are uncertain. Large earthquakes occurred in the Ometepec, Guerrero, segment in 1937, 1950, 1982 and 2012 (Singh et al., 1981). In 1982, two earthquakes (Ms 6.9 and Ms 7.0) occurred about 4 hours apart, one apparently downdip from the other (Astiz & Kanamori, 1984; Beroza et al. 1984). The 2012 earthquake on the other hand had a magnitude of Mw 7.5 (globalcmt.org), breaking approximately the same area as the 1982 doublet, but with a total scalar moment about three times larger than the 1982 doublet combined. It therefore seems that 'repeat earthquakes' in the Ometepec segment are not necessarily very similar one to another. The Central Oaxaca segment broke in large earthquakes in 1928 (Mw7.7) and 1978 (Mw7.7) . Seismograms for the two events, recorded at the Wiechert seismograph in Uppsala, show remarkable similarity, suggesting that in this area, large earthquakes can repeat. The extent to which the near-trench part of the fault plane participates in the ruptures is not well understood. In the Ometepec segment, the updip portion of the plate interface broke during the 25 Feb 1996 earthquake (Mw7.1), which was a slow earthquake and produced anomalously low PGAs (Iglesias et al., 2003). Historical records indicate that a great tsunamigenic earthquake, M~8.6, occurred in the Oaxaca region in 1787, breaking the Central Oaxaca segment together with several adjacent segments (Suarez & Albini 2009). Whether the updip portion of the fault broke in this event remains speculative, although plausible based on the large tsunami. Evidence from the

  10. Source Parameters of Large Magnitude Subduction Zone Earthquakes Along Oaxaca, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fannon, M. L.; Bilek, S. L.

    2014-12-01

    Subduction zones are host to temporally and spatially varying seismogenic activity including, megathrust earthquakes, slow slip events (SSE), nonvolcanic tremor (NVT), and ultra-slow velocity layers (USL). We explore these variations by determining source parameters for large earthquakes (M > 5.5) along the Oaxaca segment of the Mexico subduction zone, an area encompasses the wide range of activity noted above. We use waveform data for 36 earthquakes that occurred between January 1, 1990 to June 1, 2014, obtained from the IRIS DMC, generate synthetic Green's functions for the available stations, and deconvolve these from the ­­­observed records to determine a source time function for each event. From these source time functions, we measured rupture durations and scaled these by the cube root to calculate the normalized duration for each event. Within our dataset, four events located updip from the SSE, USL, and NVT areas have longer rupture durations than the other events in this analysis. Two of these four events, along with one other event, are located within the SSE and NVT areas. The results in this study show that large earthquakes just updip from SSE and NVT have slower rupture characteristics than other events along the subduction zone not adjacent to SSE, USL, and NVT zones. Based on our results, we suggest a transitional zone for the seismic behavior rather than a distinct change at a particular depth. This study will help aid in understanding seismogenic behavior that occurs along subduction zones and the rupture characteristics of earthquakes near areas of slow slip processes.

  11. Maximum earthquake magnitudes along different sections of the North Anatolian fault zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohnhoff, Marco; Martínez-Garzón, Patricia; Bulut, Fatih; Stierle, Eva; Ben-Zion, Yehuda

    2016-04-01

    Constraining the maximum likely magnitude of future earthquakes on continental transform faults has fundamental consequences for the expected seismic hazard. Since the recurrence time for those earthquakes is typically longer than a century, such estimates rely primarily on well-documented historical earthquake catalogs, when available. Here we discuss the maximum observed earthquake magnitudes along different sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in relation to the age of the fault activity, cumulative offset, slip rate and maximum length of coherent fault segments. The findings are based on a newly compiled catalog of historical earthquakes in the region, using the extensive literary sources that exist owing to the long civilization record. We find that the largest M7.8-8.0 earthquakes are exclusively observed along the older eastern part of the NAFZ that also has longer coherent fault segments. In contrast, the maximum observed events on the younger western part where the fault branches into two or more strands are smaller. No first-order relations between maximum magnitudes and fault offset or slip rates are found. The results suggest that the maximum expected earthquake magnitude in the densely populated Marmara-Istanbul region would probably not exceed M7.5. The findings are consistent with available knowledge for the San Andreas Fault and Dead Sea Transform, and can help in estimating hazard potential associated with different sections of large transform faults.

  12. Laboratory-based maximum slip rates in earthquake rupture zones and radiated energy

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.; Boettcher, M.; Beeler, N.; Boatwright, J.

    2010-01-01

    Laboratory stick-slip friction experiments indicate that peak slip rates increase with the stresses loading the fault to cause rupture. If this applies also to earthquake fault zones, then the analysis of rupture processes is simplified inasmuch as the slip rates depend only on the local yield stress and are independent of factors specific to a particular event, including the distribution of slip in space and time. We test this hypothesis by first using it to develop an expression for radiated energy that depends primarily on the seismic moment and the maximum slip rate. From laboratory results, the maximum slip rate for any crustal earthquake, as well as various stress parameters including the yield stress, can be determined based on its seismic moment and the maximum slip within its rupture zone. After finding that our new equation for radiated energy works well for laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, we used it to estimate radiated energies for five earthquakes with magnitudes near 2 that were induced in a deep gold mine, an M 2.1 repeating earthquake near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) site and seven major earthquakes in California and found good agreement with energies estimated independently from spectra of local and regional ground-motion data. Estimates of yield stress for the earthquakes in our study range from 12 MPa to 122 MPa with a median of 64 MPa. The lowest value was estimated for the 2004 M 6 Parkfield, California, earthquake whereas the nearby M 2.1 repeating earthquake, as recorded in the SAFOD pilot hole, showed a more typical yield stress of 64 MPa.

  13. Tomography of the source zone of the 2015 M 7.8 Nepal earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Wei; Zhao, Dapeng

    2016-04-01

    We conducted P-wave anisotropic tomography beneath Nepal and surrounding areas to clarify the causal mechanism of the 25 April 2015 Nepal earthquake (Mw 7.8) and dynamic processes of the India-Asia collision zone. Our results show that hypocenters of the 2015 Nepal mainshock and the 1833 Nepal earthquake (M 8.0) are located in a zone with a higher P-wave velocity (high-V), and the high-V zone coincides with the coseismic slip area of the 2015 Nepal mainshock. The high-V zone may reflect a strongly coupled patch (i.e., asperity) in the megathrust zone between the subducting Indian plate and the overlying Eurasian plate. This result suggests that the nucleation of the Nepal earthquakes was controlled by structural heterogeneities in the megathrust zone. Significant variations of P-wave velocity anisotropy are revealed across the Himalaya collision belt. The predominant fast P-wave velocity direction is NE-SW beneath northern India, whereas it becomes NW-SE beneath the Himalaya, suggesting that the fossil anisotropy in the Indian plate is overprinted by the ongoing India-Asia collision.

  14. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    components are in the planning stages, such as the developments of a unified active fault database and earthquake catalog. The flagship activity of GEM's first year is GEM1, a focused pilot project to develop GEM's first hazard and risk modeling products and initial IT infrastructure, starting in January 2009 and ending in March 2010. GEM1 will provide core capabilities for the present and key knowledge for future development of the full GEM computing Environment and product set. We will build GEM1 largely using existing tools and datasets, connected through a unified IT infrastructure, in order to bring GEM's initial capabilities online as rapidly as possible. The Swiss Seismological Service at ETH-Zurich is leading the GEM1 effort in cooperation with partners around the world. We anticipate that GEM1's products will include: • A global compilation of regional seismic source zone models in one or more common representations • Global synthetic earthquake catalogs for use in hazard calculations • Initial set of regional and global catalogues for validation • Global hazard models in map and database forms • First compilation of global vulnerabilities and fragilities • Tools for exposure and loss assessment • Validation of results and software for existing risk assessment tools to be used in future GEM stages • Demonstration risk scenarios for target cities • First version of GEM IT infrastructure All these products will be made freely available to the greatest extent possible. For more information on GEM and GEM1, please visit http://www.globalquakemodel.org.

  15. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Markle, Sandra

    1987-01-01

    A learning unit about earthquakes includes activities for primary grade students, including making inferences and defining operationally. Task cards are included for independent study on earthquake maps and earthquake measuring. (CB)

  16. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a ...

  17. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  18. Rapid changes in the electrical state of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture zone.

    PubMed

    Honkura, Yoshimori; Oshiman, Naoto; Matsushima, Masaki; Barış, Serif; Kemal Tunçer, Mustafa; Bülent Tank, Sabri; Celik, Cengiz; Ciftçi, Elif Tolak

    2013-01-01

    Crustal fluids exist near fault zones, but their relation to the processes that generate earthquakes, including slow-slip events, is unclear. Fault-zone fluids are characterized by low electrical resistivity. Here we investigate the time-dependent crustal resistivity in the rupture area of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit earthquake using electromagnetic data acquired at four sites before and after the earthquake. Most estimates of apparent resistivity in the frequency range of 0.05 to 2.0 Hz show abrupt co-seismic decreases on the order of tens of per cent. Data acquired at two sites 1 month after the Izmit earthquake indicate that the resistivity had already returned to pre-seismic levels. We interpret such changes as the pressure-induced transition between isolated and interconnected fluids. Some data show pre-seismic changes and this suggests that the transition is associated with foreshocks and slow-slip events before large earthquakes. PMID:23820970

  19. Rapid changes in the electrical state of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture zone

    PubMed Central

    Honkura, Yoshimori; Oshiman, Naoto; Matsushima, Masaki; Barış, Şerif; Kemal Tunçer, Mustafa; Bülent Tank, Sabri; Çelik, Cengiz; Çiftçi, Elif Tolak

    2013-01-01

    Crustal fluids exist near fault zones, but their relation to the processes that generate earthquakes, including slow-slip events, is unclear. Fault-zone fluids are characterized by low electrical resistivity. Here we investigate the time-dependent crustal resistivity in the rupture area of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit earthquake using electromagnetic data acquired at four sites before and after the earthquake. Most estimates of apparent resistivity in the frequency range of 0.05 to 2.0 Hz show abrupt co-seismic decreases on the order of tens of per cent. Data acquired at two sites 1 month after the Izmit earthquake indicate that the resistivity had already returned to pre-seismic levels. We interpret such changes as the pressure-induced transition between isolated and interconnected fluids. Some data show pre-seismic changes and this suggests that the transition is associated with foreshocks and slow-slip events before large earthquakes. PMID:23820970

  20. Fractal analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the Hellenic Subduction Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadakis, Giorgos; Vallianatos, Filippos; Sammonds, Peter

    2014-05-01

    The Hellenic Subduction Zone (HSZ) is the most seismically active region in Europe. Many destructive earthquakes have taken place along the HSZ in the past. The evolution of such active regions is expressed through seismicity and is characterized by complex phenomenology. The understanding of the tectonic evolution process and the physical state of subducting regimes is crucial in earthquake prediction. In recent years, there is a growing interest concerning an approach to seismicity based on the science of complex systems (Papadakis et al., 2013; Vallianatos et al., 2012). In this study we calculate the fractal dimension of the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the HSZ and we aim to understand the significance of the obtained values to the tectonic and geodynamic evolution of this area. We use the external seismic sources provided by Papaioannou and Papazachos (2000) to create a dataset regarding the subduction zone. According to the aforementioned authors, we define five seismic zones. Then, we structure an earthquake dataset which is based on the updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and the adjacent areas by Makropoulos et al. (2012), covering the period 1976-2009. The fractal dimension of the spatial distribution of earthquakes is calculated for each seismic zone and for the HSZ as a unified system using the box-counting method (Turcotte, 1997; Robertson et al., 1995; Caneva and Smirnov, 2004). Moreover, the variation of the fractal dimension is demonstrated in different time windows. These spatiotemporal variations could be used as an additional index to inform us about the physical state of each seismic zone. As a precursor in earthquake forecasting, the use of the fractal dimension appears to be a very interesting future work. Acknowledgements Giorgos Papadakis wish to acknowledge the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY). References Caneva, A., Smirnov, V., 2004. Using the fractal dimension of earthquake distributions and the

  1. Three-Dimensional Resistivity Modeling Around the Focal Zones of Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, A.; Ogawa, Y.; Saito, Z.; Ushioda, M.; Ichihara, H.; Ichiki, M.; Mishina, M.

    2015-12-01

    The 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake (M 7.2) was an unusually large earthquake, which occurred near the volcanic regions. To understand the mechanism of inland earthquakes, it is important to study the structure around the area. Okada et al. (2012) observed aftershocks precisely and estimated the seismic velocity structure. Iinuma et al. (2009) detected coseismic and aseismic slips with GPS observations. Mishina (2009) and Ichihara et al. (2014) conducted 2-D and 3-D MT surveys respectively. However, the MT station distributions of the previous MT surveys were sparse. We carried out denser surveys and showed more precise resistivity structures around the area. We conducted MT surveys at 66 stations (59 stations from October until November in 2012 and 7 stations from October until November in 2014) around the area and estimated 3-D resistivity structures using inversion code of Siripunvaraporn and Egbert (2009) with full impedance tensor as response functions. The result of our final resistivity structures is similar to the one in Ichihara et al. (2014), but is more complex. We found a low resistivity zone to the northeast of Mt. Kurikoma below 3km depth. This anomaly is connected with a low resistivity zone located under Mt. Kurikoma below 10km depth. The locations of aseismic and co-seismic slips in Iinuma et al. (2009) correspond to the locations of low resistivity and high resistivity zones in our model respectively. This may represent that low resistivity zones are brittle and high resistivity zones are ductile.

  2. Stress triggering of the great Indian Ocean strike-slip earthquakes in a diffuse plate boundary zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiseman, Kelly; Bürgmann, Roland

    2012-11-01

    On April 11, 2012, two great magnitude 8+ earthquakes occurred within a two-hour period off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, in the broadly distributed India-Australia plate boundary zone. The magnitude 8.6 mainshock holds the distinction of being both the largest instrumentally recorded strike-slip earthquake and the largest earthquake away from a recognized plate boundary fault. The mainshock involved sequential ruptures of multiple fault planes oriented nearly perpendicular to each other. The adjacent 2004 megathrust earthquake statically loaded the northern Wharton Basin oceanic lithosphere on both of the 2012 mainshock fault plane orientations, and greatly enhanced the rate of earthquake activity in the region for a year. Viscoelastic relaxation of the asthenosphere following the 2004 and 2005 megathrust earthquakes continued to positively stress the offshore region, correlating with the locations of later strike-slip earthquakes, including two magnitude 7+ and the 2012 magnitude 8+ earthquakes.

  3. Public release of the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Storchak, Dmitry A.; Di Giacomo, Domenico; Bondára, István; Engdahl, E. Robert; Harris, James; Lee, William H.K.; Villaseñor, Antonio; Bormann, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The International Seismological Centre–Global Earthquake Model (ISC–GEM) Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900–2009) is the result of a special effort to substantially extend and improve currently existing global catalogs to serve the requirements of specific user groups who assess and model seismic hazard and risk. The data from the ISC–GEM Catalogue would be used worldwide yet will prove absolutely essential in those regions where a high seismicity level strongly correlates with a high population density.

  4. Scenarios of tsunamigenic earthquakes generated along the Hellenic subduction zone and impact along the French coastlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène; Schindelé, François

    2016-04-01

    The Hellenic subduction is an active deformation zone characterized by a sustained day-to-day seismicity (magnitude < 4.5) among the strongest in Europe. The last significant earthquake along the Hellenic subduction zone detected and characterized by the French tsunami warning center (CENALT) occurred on 16th April 2015 (Mw = 6.0) along the southeastern coasts of Crete, without any tsunami risk for the French coastlines. Even if great subduction earthquakes (magnitude > 7.5) are less frequent than in Chile or Japan, the Hellenic area experienced several strong events by the past, the biggest being associated with major tsunamis (e.g., in 551, in 1303). The last known sequence dates the end of the 19th beginning of the 20th century with a seismic gap located along the South Peloponnese - West Crete segment. The legendary 365 AD great earthquake (magnitude 8 to 8.5) is assumed to have ruptured along a major inverse fault parallel to the trench in this area, generating a large tsunami observed up to the Adriatic. In this work we investigate the tsunami potential of earthquakes localized along the Hellenic subduction zone, especially the minimum magnitude required to generate a tsunami that would be able to cross from Eastern to Western Mediterranean. The impact along Corsica coastlines is discussed through the modeling of a set of tsunami scenarios (magnitude ranging from 8.0 to 8.5) established from historical events parameters.

  5. Detection of postseismic fault-zone collapse following the Landers earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Massonnet, D.; Thatcher, W.; Vadon, H.

    1996-01-01

    Stress changes caused by fault movement in an earthquake induce transient aseismic crustal movements in the earthquake source region that continue for months to decades following large events. These motions reflect aseismic adjustments of the fault zone and/or bulk deformation of the surroundings in response to applied stresses, and supply information regarding the inelastic behaviour of the Earth's crust. These processes are imperfectly understood because it is difficult to infer what occurs at depth using only surface measurements, which are in general poorly sampled. Here we push satellite radar interferometry to near its typical artefact level, to obtain a map of the postseismic deformation field in the three years following the 28 June 1992 Landers, California earthquake. From the map, we deduce two distinct types of deformation: afterslip at depth on the fault that ruptured in the earthquake, and shortening normal to the fault zone. The latter movement may reflect the closure of dilatant cracks and fluid expulsion from a transiently over-pressured fault zone.

  6. Earthquake source characterization for tsunami zoning (Case study of the Bengkulu 12 September 2007 tsunami and the 2 June 1994 Banyuwangi tsunami)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pribadi, S.; Puspito, N. T.; Rahman, M. S. S.; Tristanawati

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study is to characterize the earthquake generating tsunami in Indonesia, that influenced by the magnitude in the source. This study consists of the catalog and data of NOAA, Russian Tsunami Laboratory, BMKG observation, Global CMT, USGS and GEBCO bathymetry. Characterization of earthquakes based on Wphase method and the ratio of energy-seismic moment. Wphase widely applied in the global tsunami early warning using a group of P wave teleseismic with very low frequencies below 0005 Hz but yield an accurate result closed to Global CMT. The ratio of energy produced from seismic moment of broadband velocity waveform that give a threshold of the tsunamigenic earthquake with Θ ratio between -4.9 to -5.7 and the tsunami earthquake that Θ below -5.7. Further the characterization parameter used as an input tsunami modelling to give 2.2 m run-up height in case of Bengkulu 2007 tsunami and the highest run-up in Bali 5 m with inundation distance of 711 m in case of Banyuwangi 1994 tsunami. Tsunami zoning prone area is affected by tsunami source consisting of earthquake magnitude, distance to subduction trenches, geological conditions as hypocenter depth, bathymetry and coastal morphology exciting tsunami amplification.

  7. Transient uplift after a 17th-century earthquake along the kuril subduction zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sawai, Y.; Satake, K.; Kamataki, T.; Nasu, H.; Shishikura, M.; Atwater, B.F.; Horton, B.P.; Kelsey, H.M.; Nagumo, T.; Yamaguchi, M.

    2004-01-01

    In eastern Hokkaido, 60 to 80 kilometers above a subducting oceanic plate, tidal mudflats changed into freshwater forests during the first decades after a 17th-century tsunami. The mudflats gradually rose by a meter, as judged from fossil diatom assemblages. Both the tsunami and the ensuing uplift exceeded any in the region's 200 years of written history, and both resulted from a shallow plate-boundary earthquake of unusually large size along the Kuril subduction zone. This earthquake probably induced more creep farther down the plate boundary than did any of the region's historical events.

  8. Next-Level ShakeZoning for Earthquake Hazard Definition in Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Louie, J. N.; Savran, W. H.; Flinchum, B. A.; Dudley, C.; Prina, N.; Pullammanappallil, S.; Pancha, A.

    2011-12-01

    We are developing "Next-Level ShakeZoning" procedures tailored for defining earthquake hazards in Nevada. The current Federally sponsored tools- the USGS hazard maps and ShakeMap, and FEMA HAZUS- were developed as statistical summaries to match earthquake data from California, Japan, and Taiwan. The 2008 Wells and Mogul events in Nevada showed in particular that the generalized statistical approach taken by ShakeMap cannot match actual data on shaking from earthquakes in the Intermountain West, even to first order. Next-Level ShakeZoning relies on physics and geology to define earthquake shaking hazards, rather than statistics. It follows theoretical and computational developments made over the past 20 years, to capitalize on detailed and specific local data sets to more accurately model the propagation and amplification of earthquake waves through the multiple geologic basins of the Intermountain West. Excellent new data sets are now available for Las Vegas Valley. Clark County, Nevada has completed the nation's very first effort to map earthquake hazard class systematically through an entire urban area using Optim's SeisOpt° ReMi technique, which was adapted for large-scale data collection. Using the new Parcel Map in computing shaking in the Valley for scenario earthquakes is crucial for obtaining realistic predictions of ground motions. In an educational element of the project, a dozen undergraduate students have been computing 50 separate earthquake scenarios affecting Las Vegas Valley, using the Next-Level ShakeZoning process. Despite affecting only the upper 30 meters, the Vs30 geotechnical shear-velocity from the Parcel Map shows clear effects on 3-d shaking predictions computed so far at frequencies from 0.1 Hz up to 1.0 Hz. The effect of the Parcel Map on even the 0.1-Hz waves is prominent even with the large mismatch of wavelength to geotechnical depths. Amplifications and de-amplifications affected by the Parcel Map exceed a factor of two, and are

  9. Building a Framework Earthquake Cycle Deformational Model for Subduction Megathrust Zones: Integrating Observations with Numerical Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furlong, Kevin P.; Govers, Rob; Herman, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    Subduction zone megathrusts host the largest and deadliest earthquakes on the planet. Over the past decades (primarily since the 2004 Sumatra event) our abilities to observe the build-up in slip deficit along these plate boundary zones has improved substantially with the development of relatively dense observing systems along major subduction zones. One, perhaps unexpected, result from these observations is a range of present-day behavior along the boundaries. Some regions show displacements (almost always observed on the upper plate along the boundary) that are consistent with elastic deformation driven by a fully locked plate interface, while other plate boundary segments (oftentimes along the same plate boundary system) show little or no plate motion directed displacements. This latter case is often interpreted as reflecting little to no coupling along the plate boundary interface. What is unclear is whether this spatial variation in apparent plate boundary interface behavior reflects true spatial differences in plate interface properties and mechanics, or may rather reflect temporal behavior of the plate boundary during the earthquake cycle. In our integrated observational and modeling analyses, we have come to the conclusion that much of what is seen as diverse behavior along subduction margins represents different time in the earthquake cycle (relative to recurrence rate and material properties) rather than fundamental differences between subduction zone mechanics. Our model-constrained conceptual model accounts for the following generalized observations: 1. Coseismic displacements are enhanced in "near-trench" region 2. Post-seismic relaxation varies with time and position landward - i.e. there is a propagation of the transition point from "post" (i.e. trenchward) to "inter" (i.e. landward) seismic displacement behavior. 3. Displacements immediately post-EQ (interpreted to be associated with "after slip" on megathrust?). 4. The post-EQ transient response can

  10. Deep Structure and Earthquake Generating Properties in the Yamasaki Fault Zone Estimated from Dense Seismic Observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishigami, K.; Shibutani, T.; Katao, H.; Yamaguchi, S.; Mamada, Y.

    2010-12-01

    We have been estimating crustal heterogeneous structure and earthquake generating properties in and around the Yamasaki fault zone, which is a left-lateral strike-slip active fault with a total length of about 80 km in southwest Japan. We deployed dense seismic observation network, composed of 32 stations with average spacing of 5-10 km around the Yamasaki fault zone. We estimate detailed fault structure such as fault dip and shape, segmentation, and possible location of asperities and rupture initiation point, as well as generating properties of earthquakes in the fault zone, through analyses of accurate hypocenter distribution, focal mechanism, 3-D velocity tomography, coda wave inversion, and other waveform analyses. We also deployed a linear seismic array across the fault, composed of 20 stations with about 20 m spacing, in order to delineate the fault-zone structure in more detail using the seismic waves trapped inside the low velocity zone. We also estimate detailed resistivity structure at shallow depth of the fault zone by AMT (audio-frequency magnetotelluric) and MT surveys. In the scattering analysis of coda waves, we used 2,391 wave traces from 121 earthquakes that occurred in 2002, 2003, 2008 and 2009, recorded at 60 stations, including dense temporary and routine stations. We estimated 3-D distribution of relative scattering coefficients along the Yamasaki fault zone. Microseismicity is high and scattering coefficient is relatively larger in the upper crust along the entire fault zone. The distribution of strong scatterers suggests that the Ohara and Hijima faults, which are the segments in the northwestern part of the Yamasaki fault zone, have almost vertical fault plane from surface to a depth of about 15 km. We used seismic network data operated by Universities, NIED, AIST, and JMA. This study has been carried out as a part of the project "Study on evaluation of earthquake source faults based on surveys of inland active faults" by Japan Nuclear

  11. Crustal heterogeneity and earthquake generating properties in and around the Yamasaki fault zone, Southwest Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishigami, K.; Shibutani, T.; Ohmi, S.; Katao, H.; Yoshikawa, K.; Yamaguchi, S.; Mamada, Y.

    2009-12-01

    We have been estimating crustal heterogeneous structure and earthquake generating properties in and around the Yamasaki fault zone, which is a left-lateral strike-slip active fault with a total length of ~80 km in southwest Japan. We deployed dense seismic observation network, composed of 32 stations with average spacing of ~10 km around the Yamasaki fault zone. We will estimate detailed fault structure such as fault dip and shape, segmentation, and possible location of asperities and rupture initiation point, as well as generating properties of earthquakes in the fault zone, through analyses of accurate hypocenter distribution, focal mechanism, 3-D velocity tomography, coda wave inversion, and other waveform analyses. We also deployed a linear seismic array across the fault, composed of 20 stations with ~20 m spacing, in order to delineate the fault-zone structure in more detail using the seismic waves trapped inside the low velocity zone. We also estimate detailed resistivity structure of the fault zone by AMT (audio-frequency magnetotelluric) and MT surveys. In the scattering analysis of coda waves, we used 1,762 wave traces from 106 earthquakes that occurred in 2002, 2003, and 2008, recorded at 60 stations, including dense temporary and routine stations. We estimated 3-D distribution of relative scattering coefficients along the Yamasaki fault zone. Microseismicity is high and scattering coefficient is relatively larger in the upper crust along the entire fault zone. The distribution of strong scatterers suggests that the Ohara and Hijima faults, which are the segments in the northwestern part of the Yamasaki fault zone, have almost vertical fault plane from surface to a depth of ~15 km. We used seismic network data operated by Universities, NIED, AIST, and JMA. This study has been carried out as a part of the project "Study on evaluation of earthquake source faults based on surveys of inland active faults" by Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES

  12. Identification of High Frequency Pulses from Earthquake Asperities Along Chilean Subduction Zone Using Strong Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz, S.; Kausel, E.; Campos, J.; Saragoni, G. R.; Madariaga, R.

    2011-01-01

    The Chilean subduction zone is one of the most active of the world with M = 8 or larger interplate thrust earthquakes occurring every 10 years or so on the average. The identification and characterization of pulses propagated from dominant asperities that control the rupture of these earthquakes is an important problem for seismology and especially for seismic hazard assessment since it can reduce the earthquake destructiveness potential. A number of studies of large Chilean earthquakes have revealed that the source time functions of these events are composed of a number of distinct energy arrivals. In this paper, we identify and characterize the high frequency pulses of dominant asperities using near source strong motion records. Two very well recorded interplate earthquakes, the 1985 Central Chile (Ms = 7.8) and the 2007 Tocopilla (Mw = 7.7), are considered. In particular, the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake was recorded by a network with absolute time and continuos recording. From the study of these strong motion data it is possible to identify the arrival of large pulses coming from different dominant asperities. The recognition of the key role of dominant asperities in seismic hazard assessment can reduce overestimations due to scattering of attenuation formulas that consider epicentral distance or shortest distance to the fault rather than the asperity distance. The location and number of dominant asperities, their shape, the amplitude and arrival time of pulses can be one of the principal factors influencing Chilean seismic hazard assessment and seismic design. The high frequency pulses identified in this paper have permitted us to extend the range of frequency in which the 1985 Central Chile and 2007 Tocopilla earthquakes were studied. This should allow in the future the introduction of this seismological result in the seismic design of earthquake engineering.

  13. Observations of large earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone over 110 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Krishna Singh, Shri; Martínez-Peláez, Liliana; Garza-Girón, Ricardo; Lund, Björn; Ji, Chen

    2016-04-01

    Fault slip during an earthquake is observed to be highly heterogeneous, with areas of large slip interspersed with areas of smaller or even no slip. The cause of the heterogeneity is debated. One hypothesis is that the frictional properties on the fault are heterogeneous. The parts of the rupture surface that have large slip during earthquakes are coupled more strongly, whereas the areas in between and around creep continuously or episodically. The continuously or episodically creeping areas can partly release strain energy through aseismic slip during the interseismic period, resulting in relatively lower prestress than on the coupled areas. This would lead to subsequent earthquakes having large slip in the same place, or persistent asperities. A second hypothesis is that in the absence of creeping sections, the prestress is governed mainly by the accumulative stress change associated with previous earthquakes. Assuming homogeneous frictional properties on the fault, a larger prestress results in larger slip, i.e. the next earthquake may have large slip where there was little or no slip in the previous earthquake, which translates to non-persistent asperities. The study of earthquake cycles are hampered by short time period for which high quality, broadband seismological and accelerographic records, needed for detailed studies of slip distributions, are available. The earthquake cycle in the Mexican subduction zone is relatively short, with about 30 years between large events in many places. We are therefore entering a period for which we have good records for two subsequent events occurring in the same segment of the subduction zone. In this study we compare seismograms recorded either at the Wiechert seismograph or on a modern broadband seismometer located in Uppsala, Sweden for subsequent earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone rupturing the same patch. The Wiechert seismograph is unique in the sense that it recorded continuously for more than 80 years

  14. The OPAL Project: Open source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, James

    2010-05-01

    This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure has been developed to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1) Overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost and technology); 2) Preliminary research, acquisition and familiarisation with all available ELE software packages; 3) Assessment of these 30+ software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4) Loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data. Keywords: OPAL, displacement-based, DBELA, earthquake loss estimation, earthquake loss assessment, open source, HAZUS

  15. Coulomb stress interactions among M≥5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda deformation zone and on the Mendocino Fracture Zone, Cascadia megathrust, and northern San Andreas fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rollins, John C.; Stein, Ross S.

    2010-01-01

    The Gorda deformation zone, a 50,000 km2 area of diffuse shear and rotation offshore northernmost California, has been the site of 20 M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes on four different fault orientations since 1976, including four M ≥ 7 shocks. This is the highest rate of large earthquakes in the contiguous United States. We calculate that the source faults of six recent M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes had experienced ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress increases imparted by earthquakes that struck less than 9 months beforehand. Control tests indicate that ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress interactions between M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes separated by Mw = 7.3 Trinidad earthquake are consistent with the locations of M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda zone until at least 1995, as well as earthquakes on the Mendocino Fault Zone in 1994 and 2000. Coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1980 earthquake are also consistent with its distinct elbow-shaped aftershock pattern. From these observations, we derive generalized static stress interactions among right-lateral, left-lateral and thrust faults near triple junctions.

  16. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Edward J.

    1977-01-01

    Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

  17. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  18. The radiated seismic energy and apparent stress of interplate and intraplate earthquakes at subduction zone environments; implications for seismic hazard estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Choy, George L.; Boatwright, John L.; Kirby, Stephen H.

    2001-01-01

    The radiated seismic energies (ES) of 980 shallow subduction-zone earthquakes with magnitudes ? 5.8 are used to examine global patterns of energy release and apparent stress. In contrast to traditional methods which have relied upon empirical formulas, these energies are computed through direct spectral analysis of broadband seismic waveforms. Energy gives a physically different measure of earthquake size than moment. Moment, being derived from the low-frequency asymptote of the displacement spectra, is related to the final static displacement. Thus, moment is crucial to the long-term tectonic implication of an earthquake. In contrast, energy, being derived from the velocity power spectra, is more a measure of seismic potential for damage to anthropogenic structures. There is considerable scatter in the plot of ES-M0 for worldwide earthquakes. For any given M0, the ES can vary by as much as an order of magnitude about the mean regression line. The global variation between ES and M0, while large, is not random. When subsets of ES-M0 are plotted as a function of seismic region, tectonic setting and faulting type, the scatter in data is often substantially reduced. There are two profound implications for the estimation of seismic and tsunamic hazard. First, it is now feasible to characterize the apparent stress for particular regions. Second, a given M0 does not have a unique ES. This means that M0 alone is not sufficient to describe all aspects of an earthquake. In particular, we have found examples of interplate thrust-faulting earthquakes and intraslab normal-faulting earthquakes occurring in the same epicentral region with vastly different macroseismic effects. Despite the gross macroseismic disparities, the MW?s in these examples were identical. However, the Me?s (energy magnitudes) successfully distinguished the earthquakes that were more damaging.

  19. Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yilmaz, Şeyda; Bayrak, Erdem; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-04-01

    In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

  20. Long-term perspectives on giant earthquakes and tsunamis at subduction zones

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Satake, K.; Atwater, B.F.

    2007-01-01

    Histories of earthquakes and tsunamis, inferred from geological evidence, aid in anticipating future catastrophes. This natural warning system now influences building codes and tsunami planning in the United States, Canada, and Japan, particularly where geology demonstrates the past occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis larger than those known from written and instrumental records. Under favorable circumstances, paleoseismology can thus provide long-term advisories of unusually large tsunamis. The extraordinary Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 resulted from a fault rupture more than 1000 km in length that included and dwarfed fault patches that had broken historically during lesser shocks. Such variation in rupture mode, known from written history at a few subduction zones, is also characteristic of earthquake histories inferred from geology on the Pacific Rim. Copyright ?? 2007 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  1. J-FAST: A Proposal to drill into the Fault Zone of 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mori, J. J.; Brodsky, E. E.; Kodaira, S.

    2011-12-01

    The shallow distribution of large slip for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake provides an unprecedented opportunity to directly access a fault that has recently moved tens of meters. We have proposed to the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) that a 800 to 1000 m borehole be drilled into the seafloor to penetrate the slip surface of the megathrust. Analyses of the deformation textures, chemical properties, and mineralogy of the fault zone will likely provide valuable information about the faulting process of the recent and past earthquakes. Another important focus of this project is the rapid drilling into the fault zone to capture time-dependent data that is only available immediately after the earthquake. The highest priority is for temperature measurements across the fault zone to determine the amount of frictional heat generated by the earthquake. We plan to make observations of a decaying temperature signal over several years, to estimate the level of dynamic friction during the large rupture. The dynamic friction is the basic parameter that controls the behavior of the fault slip during an earthquake. To obtain good resolution of the thermal signal, initial measurements need to be made within 2 years. Therefore, with consideration of time for thermal stabilization and logistical constraints, the borehole should be completed by summer 2012. In addition to the temperature observations, other time sensitive measurements, such as borehole stress and changing chemical compositions will provide insights on the rupture mechanisms. Key scientific questions and methods to addresses them include, 1. What was the stress state on the fault that controls rupture during the earthquake and was the stress completely released? Dynamic friction during the rupture - Potentially the most significant result of this project will be a value for the dynamic coefficient of friction. The temperature measurements will be used to estimate the frictional heat produced at the time of the

  2. Stress development in heterogenetic lithosphere: Insights into earthquake processes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhan, Y.; Gregg, P. M.; Hou, G.

    2015-12-01

    The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) is the site of several major M 6.8-8 earthquakes in 1811-1812, and remains seismically active. Although extensive investigations have been carried out, the ultimate controls on earthquake initiation and the duration of the seismicity remains unclear. Especially ambiguous is the role of a heterogenetic lithosphere in the development and propagation of stress throughout the crust in intraplate settings. In this study, we develop a finite element model to conduct a series of numerical experiments, the goal of which is to determine the impact of heterogeneity in the Upper Crust, the Lower Crust, and the Mantle on earthquake nucleation and rupture processes. Results indicate that when the differential stresses are built up from boundary displacements, similar to tectonic loading, the stresses below the Reelfoot Rift in the NMSZ are highly concentrated, whereas the stresses below the geologically similar Midcontinent Rift System are low, corresponding with the earthquakes distribution. By comparing the results with three reference models, we argue that the extensive Mantle Low Velocity Zone (MLVZ) beneath the NMSZ produces differential stress localization in the layers above. Furthermore, the relatively strong crust in this region, exhibited by high seismic velocity, enables the elevated stress to extend to the bottom of the ancient rift system, reactivating fossil rifting faults and therefore triggering earthquakes. Although our numerical models focus on loading by a far-field stress source, they explain why the New Madrid inevitably became the most earthquake susceptible region in the CEUS since a heterogeneous lithosphere. Specifically, the presence of the MLVZ will further concentrate stresses resulting from other unloading process, such as melting of the ice sheets or sudden river incision.

  3. Paleoseismologic evidence for late Holocene earthquakes on the Southern Panamint Valley fault zone: Implications for earthquake clustering in the Eastern California Shear Zone north of the Garlock fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McAuliffe, L. J.; Dolan, J. F.; Kirby, E.; Haravitch, B.; Alm, S.

    2010-12-01

    New paleoseismological data from two trenches excavated across the southern end of the Panamint Valley fault (PVF), the most active of the three major faults in the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ) north of the Garlock fault, reveal the occurrence of at least two, and probably three, surface ruptures during the late Holocene. These trenches were designed to test the hypothesis that the earthquake clusters and intervening seismic lulls observed in the Mojave section of the ECSZ (Rockwell et al. 2000, Ganev et al. 2010) at 8-9.5 ka, 5-6 ka and during the past ~1-1.5 ka, also involved the fault systems of the ECSZ north of the Garlock fault. Well stratified playa sands, silts and clays exposed in the trench allowed precise identification of two event horizons; a likely third event horizon occurred during a period of soil development across the playa. Calibrated radiocarbon dates from 25 charcoal samples constrain the dates of the most recent event (MRE) to ~1450-1500 AD and the ante-penultimate event at 3.2-3.6 ka. The penultimate event occurred during a period of soil development spanning ~350-1400 AD. The presence of large blocks of soil in what appears to be scarp-derived colluvium in a large fissure opened during this event require that it occurred late during soil development, probably only a few hundred years before the MRE. The timing of the three events indicate that the southern PVF has ruptured at least once, and probably twice during the ongoing seismic cluster in the Mojave region. The PVF earthquakes also are similar in age to the 1872 Owens Valley earthquakes and the geomorphically youthful, but undated MRE in central Death Valley. Although we were unable to excavate deeply enough at this site to expose mid-to lower - Holocene playa strata, the timing of the ante-penultimate earthquake at our site shows that the PVF has ruptured at least once during the well-defined 2-5 ka seismic lull in the Mojave section of the ECSZ. Interestingly the 3.2-3.6 ka

  4. Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes and Global Electric Circuit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulinets, Sergey; Davidenko, Dmitry

    2014-03-01

    The electromagnetic coupling between the seismically activated area and the ionosphere is considered within the framework of the Global Electric Circuit (GEC) conception. First we consider the anomalous variations in the ionosphere associated with the earthquake preparation process, their temporal and spatial characteristics using the results from recent publications. Then the GEC conception is presented shortly with main accent put on ionization processes which play key role in the complex chain of physical and chemical interactions changing the electric properties of the planetary boundary layer of atmosphere. We treat this part of troposphere as an open complex system with dissipation where so called “blow up” processes are developed leading to sharp and fast changes of atmospheric parameters including the electric properties of the boundary layer. The new concept named Spatial Scintillation Index is introduced in the last part of the paper. In general, this paper may be considered as a short review of the recent achievements in understanding of the seismo-ionospheric coupling.

  5. Multi-Scale Structure and Earthquake Properties in the San Jacinto Fault Zone Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Zion, Y.

    2014-12-01

    I review multi-scale multi-signal seismological results on structure and earthquake properties within and around the San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ) in southern California. The results are based on data of the southern California and ANZA networks covering scales from a few km to over 100 km, additional near-fault seismometers and linear arrays with instrument spacing 25-50 m that cross the SJFZ at several locations, and a dense rectangular array with >1100 vertical-component nodes separated by 10-30 m centered on the fault. The structural studies utilize earthquake data to image the seismogenic sections and ambient noise to image the shallower structures. The earthquake studies use waveform inversions and additional time domain and spectral methods. We observe pronounced damage regions with low seismic velocities and anomalous Vp/Vs ratios around the fault, and clear velocity contrasts across various sections. The damage zones and velocity contrasts produce fault zone trapped and head waves at various locations, along with time delays, anisotropy and other signals. The damage zones follow a flower-shape with depth; in places with velocity contrast they are offset to the stiffer side at depth as expected for bimaterial ruptures with persistent propagation direction. Analysis of PGV and PGA indicates clear persistent directivity at given fault sections and overall motion amplification within several km around the fault. Clear temporal changes of velocities, probably involving primarily the shallow material, are observed in response to seasonal, earthquake and other loadings. Full source tensor properties of M>4 earthquakes in the complex trifurcation area include statistically-robust small isotropic component, likely reflecting dynamic generation of rock damage in the source volumes. The dense fault zone instruments record seismic "noise" at frequencies >200 Hz that can be used for imaging and monitoring the shallow material with high space and time details, and

  6. Shear Wave Splitting from Local Earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, P.; Arroucau, P.; Vlahovic, G.

    2012-12-01

    In this study we investigate crustal anisotropy in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ), by analyzing shear wave splitting from local earthquake data. The NMSZ is centrally located in the United States, spanning portions of western Tennessee, northeastern Arkansas, and southeastern Missouri. The NMSZ is also the location in which three of the largest known earthquakes took place in North America, occurring in 1811-1812. Although many seismic studies have been performed in this region, there is no consensus about which driving mechanism could satisfy both the current observations, as well as the historically observed seismicity. Therefore, it is important to continue investigating the NMSZ, to gain a better understanding of its seismicity, and the possible mechanisms that drive it. The automated technique developed by Savage et al. (2010) is used to perform the shear wave splitting measurements at 120 seismic stations within the NMSZ. The Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis provided data for 1151 earthquakes spanning the years 2003-2011. The initial event selection was reduced to 245 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 2.0 to 4.6, which fell within the shear wave window of one or more of the stations. The results of this study provide information about orientation of microcracks in the upper portion of the crust; future work will include analysis for temporal and spatial variations in order to assess the state of stress in the region.

  7. Mega-thrust and Intra-slab Earthquakes beneath Tokyo Metropolitan Area around subduction and collision zones in JAPAN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, N.; Kasahara, K.; Hagiwara, H.; Satow, H.; Shimazaki, K.; Koketsu, K.; Wu, F.; Okaya, D.

    2004-12-01

    In central Japan the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducts beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan area, the Kanto region, where it causes mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9). The vertical proximity of this down going lithospheric plate is of concern because the greater Tokyo urban region has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's economic activities. A M7+ earthquake in this region at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions.The M7+ earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan.We started the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo metropolitan areas, a project to improve information needed for seismic hazards analyses of the largest urban centers. Under the project we will deploy a 400-sation dense seismic array in metropolitan Tokyo and Kanto, referred to as the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net) in next 4 years. The target area of the present project is unique in tectonic setting because two oceanic plates, Philippine Sea plate (PSP) and Pacific plate (PAC), are subducting beneath the Kanto and also a volcanic arc, Izu-Bonin arc, is colliding with Honshu arc. The situation makes the tectonics complicated: there are both zones of smooth subduction and collision of the oceanic plate with the landward plate, either the Eurasian plate or the North American plate. Furthermore, the PSP encounters the PAC at shallow depth in the eastern Kanto region. The newly developing MeSO-net will contribute to understand the generation mechanism associated with the plate subduction and collision. Assessment in Kanto of the seismic hazard requires identification of all significant faults and possible earthquake scenarios and rupture behavior, regional characterizations of the PSP geometry and

  8. Mega-thrust and Intra-slab Earthquakes beneath Tokyo Metropolitan Area around subduction and collision zones in JAPAN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, N.; Kasahara, K.; Hagiwara, H.; Satow, H.; Shimazaki, K.; Koketsu, K.; Wu, F.; Okaya, D.

    2007-12-01

    In central Japan the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducts beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan area, the Kanto region, where it causes mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9). The vertical proximity of this down going lithospheric plate is of concern because the greater Tokyo urban region has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's economic activities. A M7+ earthquake in this region at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions.The M7+ earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan.We started the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo metropolitan areas, a project to improve information needed for seismic hazards analyses of the largest urban centers. Under the project we will deploy a 400-sation dense seismic array in metropolitan Tokyo and Kanto, referred to as the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net) in next 4 years. The target area of the present project is unique in tectonic setting because two oceanic plates, Philippine Sea plate (PSP) and Pacific plate (PAC), are subducting beneath the Kanto and also a volcanic arc, Izu-Bonin arc, is colliding with Honshu arc. The situation makes the tectonics complicated: there are both zones of smooth subduction and collision of the oceanic plate with the landward plate, either the Eurasian plate or the North American plate. Furthermore, the PSP encounters the PAC at shallow depth in the eastern Kanto region. The newly developing MeSO-net will contribute to understand the generation mechanism associated with the plate subduction and collision. Assessment in Kanto of the seismic hazard requires identification of all significant faults and possible earthquake scenarios and rupture behavior, regional characterizations of the PSP geometry and

  9. Probability Assessment of Mega-thrust Earthquakes in Global Subduction Zones -from the View of Slip Deficit-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ikuta, R.; Mitsui, Y.; Ando, M.

    2014-12-01

    We studied inter-plate slip history for about 100 years using earthquake catalogs. On assumption that each earthquake has stick-slip patch centered in its centroid, we regard cumulative seismic slips around the centroid as representing the inter-plate dislocation. We evaluated the slips on the stick-slip patches of over-M5-class earthquakes prior to three recent mega-thrust earthquakes, the 2004 Sumatra (Mw9.2), the 2010 Chile (Mw8.8), and the 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) around them. Comparing the cumulative seismic slips with the plate convergence, the slips before the mega-thrust events are significantly short in large area corresponding to the size of the mega-thrust events. We also researched cumulative seismic slips after other three mega-thrust earthquakes occurred in this 100 years, the 1952 Kamchatka (Mw9.0), the 1960 Chile (Mw9.5), the 1964 Alaska (Mw9.2). The cumulative slips have been significantly short in and around the focal area after their occurrence. The result should reflect persistency of the strong or/and large inter-plate coupled area capable of mega-thrust earthquakes. We applied the same procedure to global subduction zones to find that 21 regions including the focal area of above mega-thrust earthquakes show slip deficit over large area corresponding to the size of M9-class earthquakes. Considering that at least six M9-class earthquakes occurred in this 100 years and each recurrence interval should be 500-1000 years, it would not be surprised that from five to ten times of the already known regions (30 to 60 regions) are capable of M9 class earthquakes. The 21 regions as expected M9 class focal areas in our study is less than 5 to 10 times of the known 6, some of these regions may be divided into a few M9 class focal area because they extend to much larger area than typical M9 class focal area.

  10. Maximal radius of the aftershock zone in earthquake networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mezentsev, A. Yu.; Hayakawa, M.

    2009-09-01

    In this paper, several seismoactive regions were investigated (Japan, Southern California and two tectonically distinct Japanese subregions) and structural seismic constants were estimated for each region. Using the method for seismic clustering detection proposed by Baiesi and Paczuski [M. Baiesi, M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 066106; M. Baiesi, M. Paczuski, Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. (2005) 1607-7946], we obtained the equation of the aftershock zone (AZ). It was shown that the consideration of a finite velocity of seismic signal leads to the natural appearance of maximal possible radius of the AZ. We obtained the equation of maximal radius of the AZ as a function of the magnitude of the main event and estimated its values for each region.

  11. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  12. Global Earthquake Casualties due to Secondary Effects: A Quantitative Analysis for Improving PAGER Losses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wald, David J.

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER’s overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra–Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability.

  13. Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marano, K.D.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER's overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

  14. Global coseismic deformations, GNSS time series analysis, and earthquake scaling laws

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Métivier, Laurent; Collilieux, Xavier; Lercier, Daphné; Altamimi, Zuheir; Beauducel, François

    2014-12-01

    We investigate how two decades of coseismic deformations affect time series of GPS station coordinates (Global Navigation Satellite System) and what constraints geodetic observations give on earthquake scaling laws. We developed a simple but rapid model for coseismic deformations, assuming different earthquake scaling relations, that we systematically applied on earthquakes with magnitude larger than 4. We found that coseismic displacements accumulated during the last two decades can be larger than 10 m locally and that the cumulative displacement is not only due to large earthquakes but also to the accumulation of many small motions induced by smaller earthquakes. Then, investigating a global network of GPS stations, we demonstrate that a systematic global modeling of coseismic deformations helps greatly to detect discontinuities in GPS coordinate time series, which are still today one of the major sources of error in terrestrial reference frame construction (e.g., the International Terrestrial Reference Frame). We show that numerous discontinuities induced by earthquakes are too small to be visually detected because of seasonal variations and GPS noise that disturb their identification. However, not taking these discontinuities into account has a large impact on the station velocity estimation, considering today's precision requirements. Finally, six groups of earthquake scaling laws were tested. Comparisons with our GPS time series analysis on dedicated earthquakes give insights on the consistency of these scaling laws with geodetic observations and Okada coseismic approach.

  15. Model for episodic flow of high-pressure water in fault zones before earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byerlee, J.

    1993-01-01

    In this model for the evolution of large crustal faults, water originally from the country rock saturates the porous and permeable fault zone. During shearing, the fault zone compacts and water flows back into the country rock, but the flow is arrested by silicate deposition that forms low permeability seals. The fluid will be confined to seal-bounded fluid compartments of various sizes and porosity that are not hydraulically connected with each other. When the seal between two compartments is ruptured, an electrical streaming potential will be generated by the sudden movement of fluid from the high-pressure compartment to the low-pressure compartment. During an earthquake the width of the fault zone will increase by failure of the geometric irregularities on the fault. This newly created, porous and permeable, wider fault zone will fill with water, and the process described above will be repeated. Thus, the process is episodic with the water moving in and out of the fault zone, and each large earthquake should be preceded by an electrical and/or magnetic signal. -from Author

  16. Improving automatic earthquake locations in subduction zones: a case study for GEOFON catalog of Tonga-Fiji region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nooshiri, Nima; Heimann, Sebastian; Saul, Joachim; Tilmann, Frederik; Dahm, Torsten

    2015-04-01

    Automatic earthquake locations are sometimes associated with very large residuals up to 10 s even for clear arrivals, especially for regional stations in subduction zones because of their strongly heterogeneous velocity structure associated. Although these residuals are most likely not related to measurement errors but unmodelled velocity heterogeneity, these stations are usually removed from or down-weighted in the location procedure. While this is possible for large events, it may not be useful if the earthquake is weak. In this case, implementation of travel-time station corrections may significantly improve the automatic locations. Here, the shrinking box source-specific station term method (SSST) [Lin and Shearer, 2005] has been applied to improve relative location accuracy of 1678 events that occurred in the Tonga subduction zone between 2010 and mid-2014. Picks were obtained from the GEOFON earthquake bulletin for all available station networks. We calculated a set of timing corrections for each station which vary as a function of source position. A separate time correction was computed for each source-receiver path at the given station by smoothing the residual field over nearby events. We begin with a very large smoothing radius essentially encompassing the whole event set and iterate by progressively shrinking the smoothing radius. In this way, we attempted to correct for the systematic errors, that are introduced into the locations by the inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure, without solving for a new velocity model itself. One of the advantages of the SSST technique is that the event location part of the calculation is separate from the station term calculation and can be performed using any single event location method. In this study, we applied a non-linear, probabilistic, global-search earthquake location method using the software package NonLinLoc [Lomax et al., 2000]. The non-linear location algorithm implemented in NonLinLoc is less

  17. New evidence for global tectonic zones on Venus

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kozak, R.C.; Schaber, G.G.

    1989-01-01

    Venera 15 and 16 spacecraft images show clear evidence of major crustal disruptions on Venus which have been interpreted to indicate crustal divergence. Complementary to the divergent zones are mountain belts that border the continent-like high terrains. The requisite transcurrent motions appear to be manifested as diffuse shear zones. The rift zones form an interconnected transpolar system which ties in with previously recognized equatorial disruption zones, suggesting a global tectonic network. Several independent lines of evidence suggest that the tectonism may be geologically young. -Authors

  18. New evidence for global tectonic zones on Venus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kozak, Richard C.; Schaber, Gerald G.

    1989-01-01

    Venera 15 and 16 spacecraft images show clear evidence of major crustal disruptions on Venus which have been interpreted to indicate crustal divergence. Complementary to the divergent zones are mountain belts that border the continent-like high terrains. The requisite transcurrent motions appear to be manifested as diffuse shear zones. The rift zones form an interconnected transpolar system which ties in with previously recognized equatorial disruption zones, suggesting a global tectonic network. Several independent lines of evidence suggest that the tectonism may be geologically young.

  19. Surface-Wave Multiple-Event Relocation and Detection of Earthquakes along the Romanche Fracture Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleveland, M.; Ammon, C. J.; VanDeMark, T. F.

    2011-12-01

    The Romanche Transform system, located along the equatorial Mid-Atlantic Ridge, is approximately 900 km in length and separates plates moving with a relative plate speed of three cm/yr. We use cross-correlation of globally recorded Rayleigh waves to estimate precise relative epicentroids of moderate-size earthquakes along the Romanche Fracture Zone system. The Romanche transform has an even distribution of large events along its entire length that provide a good base of events with excellent signal-to-noise observations. Two distinct moderate-magnitude event clusters occur along the eastern half of the transform and the region between the clusters hosted a large event in the last decade. Based on initial results (Van DeMark, 2006), unlike those of shorter transform systems, the events along the Romanche do not follow narrow features, the event clusters seem to spread perpendicular as well as laterally to the transform trend. These patterns are consistent with parallel, en echelon and/or braided fault systems, which have been previously observed on the Romanche through the use of side scanning sonar (Parson and Searle, 1986). We also explore the character and potential of seismic body waves to extend the method to help improve relative event depth estimates. Relying on a good base of larger and moderate-magnitude seismicity, we attempt to extend the analysis by processing continuous data streams through processes measuring waveform similarity (e.g. cross-correlation) in an attempt to detect smaller events using a subset of nearest seismic stations.

  20. Fault zone reverberations from cross-correlations of earthquake waveforms and seismic noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hillers, Gregor; Campillo, Michel

    2016-03-01

    Seismic wavefields interact with low-velocity fault damage zones. Waveforms of ballistic fault zone head waves, trapped waves, reflected waves and signatures of trapped noise can provide important information on structural and mechanical fault zone properties. Here we extend the class of observable fault zone waves and reconstruct in-fault reverberations or multiples in a strike-slip faulting environment. Manifestations of the reverberations are significant, consistent wave fronts in the coda of cross-correlation functions that are obtained from scattered earthquake waveforms and seismic noise recorded by a linear fault zone array. The physical reconstruction of Green's functions is evident from the high similarity between the signals obtained from the two different scattered wavefields. Modal partitioning of the reverberation wavefield can be tuned using different data normalization techniques. The results imply that fault zones create their own ambiance, and that the here reconstructed reverberations are a key seismic signature of wear zones. Using synthetic waveform modelling we show that reverberations can be used for the imaging of structural units by estimating the location, extend and magnitude of lateral velocity contrasts. The robust reconstruction of the reverberations from noise records suggests the possibility to resolve the response of the damage zone material to various external and internal loading mechanisms.

  1. Earthquakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roper, Paul J.; Roper, Jere Gerard

    1974-01-01

    Describes the causes and effects of earthquakes, defines the meaning of magnitude (measured on the Richter Magnitude Scale) and intensity (measured on a modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) and discusses earthquake prediction and control. (JR)

  2. Tularemia and plague survey in rodents in an earthquake zone in southeastern Iran

    PubMed Central

    Gyuranecz, Miklós

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Earthquakes are one the most common natural disasters that lead to increased mortality and morbidity from transmissible diseases, partially because the rodents displaced by an earthquake can lead to an increased rate of disease transmission. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of plague and tularemia in rodents in the earthquake zones in southeastern Iran. METHODS: In April 2013, a research team was dispatched to explore the possible presence of diseases in rodents displaced by a recent earthquake magnitude 7.7 around the cities of Khash and Saravan in Sistan and Baluchestan Province. Rodents were trapped near and in the earthquake zone, in a location where an outbreak of tularemia was reported in 2007. Rodent serums were tested for a serological survey using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: In the 13 areas that were studied, nine rodents were caught over a total of 200 trap-days. Forty-eight fleas and 10 ticks were obtained from the rodents. The ticks were from the Hyalomma genus and the fleas were from the Xenopsylla genus. All the trapped rodents were Tatera indica. Serological results were negative for plague, but the serum agglutination test was positive for tularemia in one of the rodents. Tatera indica has never been previously documented to be involved in the transmission of tularemia. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence of the plague cycle was found in the rodents of the area, but evidence was found of tularemia infection in rodents, as demonstrated by a positive serological test for tularemia in one rodent. PMID:26602769

  3. New Observations of Coseismic Fault Zone Deformation from Differencing Pre- and Post-Earthquake Lidar Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nissen, E.; Arrowsmith, R.; Borsa, A. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Hinojosa-Corona, A.; Maruyama, T.; Oskin, M. E.

    2014-12-01

    Sub-meter resolution airborne LiDAR topography comprises a critical part of the research infastructure along several major active faults in western North America, where it provides a topographic baseline against which future, post-earthquake LiDAR surveys can be differenced. Here, we describe two differencing methods - one based on the Iterative Closest Point algorithm, the other on cross-correlation techniques - that enable the 3-D surface deformation field to be determined. This contrasts with conventional InSAR and pixel-tracking techniques which measure line-of-sight and horizontal displacement components only. An additional advantage is that LiDAR differencing retains coherence in the presence of steep displacement gradients, such as close to surface ruptures, and it is therefore well-suited for probing the slip distribution and mechanical properties of the shallow part of the fault zone. We illustrate using two recent Mw ~7 earthquakes in Mexico and Japan which are the first near-complete ruptures to be captured in this way. For the 4 April 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquake, the 3-D displacements are used to explore whether significant slip occurred on low-angle detachment faults, as has been postulated by some field geologists. For the 11 April 2011 Fukushima-Hamadori (Japan) earthquake, coherent LiDAR displacements from the interior part of the fault zone are used to help bridge a critical observational gap between surface faulting offsets (measured in the field) and slip occurring at depths of a few kilometers (inferred from InSAR). Challenges include the treatment of vegetation and the dependence on older, "legacy" LiDAR datasets - third party surveys which were not optimized for earthquake studies and for which important data acquisition and processing metrics are unavailable.

  4. Crustal Deformation in Southcentral Alaska: The 1964 Prince William Sound Earthquake Subduction Zone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, Steven C.; Freymueller, Jeffrey T.

    2003-01-01

    This article, for Advances in Geophysics, is a summary of crustal deformation studies in southcentral Alaska. In 1964, southcentral Alaska was struck by the largest earthquake (moment magnitude 9.2) occurring in historical times in North America and the second largest earthquake occurring in the world during the past century. Conventional and space-based geodetic measurements have revealed a complex temporal-spatial pattern of crustal movement. Numerical models suggest that ongoing convergence between the North America and Pacific Plates, viscoelastic rebound, aseismic creep along the tectonic plate interface, and variable plate coupling all play important roles in controlling both the surface and subsurface movements. The geodetic data sets include tide-gauge observations that in some cases provide records back to the decades preceding the earthquake, leveling data that span a few decades around the earthquake, VLBI data from the late 1980s, and GPS data since the mid-1990s. Geologic data provide additional estimates of vertical movements and a chronology of large seismic events. Some of the important features that are revealed by the ensemble of studies that are reviewed in this paper include: (1) Crustal uplift in the region that subsided by up 2 m at the time of the earthquake is as much as 1 m since the earthquake. In the Turnagain Arm and Kenai Peninsula regions of southcentral Alaska, uplift rates in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake reached 150 mm/yr , but this rapid uplift decayed rapidly after the first few years following the earthquake. (2) At some other locales, notably those away the middle of the coseismic rupture zone, postseismic uplift rates were initially slower but the rates decay over a longer time interval. At Kodiak Island, for example, the uplift rates have been decreasing at a rate of about 7mm/yr per decade. At yet other locations, the uplift rates have shown little time dependence so far, but are thought not to be sustainable

  5. Stress changes induced at neighbouring faults by the June 2000 earthquakes, South Iceland Seismic Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plateaux, Romain; Angelier, Jacques; Bergerat, Françoise; Cappa, Frédéric; Stefansson, Ragnar

    2010-05-01

    The Icelandic rift system belongs to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and is connected to the offshore Reykjanes and Kolbeinsey ridges by two active transform zones. Plate separation occurs at a rate of nearly 2 cm/yr along the N105°E direction. With respect to the Icelandic Hotspot, westward plate velocities in Iceland are 1.8-2.2 cm/yr for North America and 0-0.4 cm/yr for Eurasia, resulting in a westward displacement of the Icelandic Rift relative to the hotspot. Rift jumps occur when the plate boundary has migrated to a critical point to the west, and a new rift develops above the hotspot apex while the old rift is dying out. The two active transform zones, the Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ) and the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), resulted from such eastward rift jumps. Our study focuses on the SISZ which is an onland, E-W trending transform zone where N-S trending right-lateral strike-slip faults accommodate left-lateral transform motion as revealed by historical seismicity. During the most recent seismic crisis, in June 2000, two major earthquakes of magnitude (Mw) 6.4 occurred along N-S right-lateral faults in the central segment of the SISZ. The high sensitivity SIL (South Iceland Lowlands) seismic network run by the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) provided a complete record of earthquakes down to magnitude Mw = -1. Here, we present an analysis of this earthquakes sequence in term of stress regimes in order to examine the response of two faults that did not experience significant motion during the earthquakes, and hence to determine how far such fault zones provide information about stress changes in space and time when large earthquakes occur at distance of some tens of kilometres. The faults considered are the Skard and Leirubakki faults, along which large earthquakes and significant displacement occurred in the past Using seismological data recorded from 1991 to 2007, we carried out stress inversion of focal mechanisms of 1,340 earthquakes that affected

  6. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  7. Rock magnetism constrain response thickness on earth surface to large earthquake: Evidence from the Bajiaomiao Outcrop of the Wenchuan Earthquake Rupture Zone, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, D.; Li, H.; Lee, T.; Song, S.; Sun, Z.; Wang, X.; Chou, Y.; Chevalier, M.; Si, J.; Wang, H.

    2013-12-01

    The 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake has raptured along two fault zones, the Yingxiu-Beichuan f and the Anxian-Guanxian fault zones. The Wenchuan earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling project (WFSD) funded by the Chinese government, drilled five holes close to the two seismic fault zones. Fault gouge with various thicknesses were found in the drill holes and at the earth surface outcrops. In general, one such large earthquake creates several centimeters-thick fault gouge, i.e. the repeated large earthquakes must have taken place in the Longmen Shan region in order to accumulate the amount of gouge observed here. Rock magnetism is an economic, easy-access and non-destructive method for deciphering the magnetic mineral assemblage during large earthquake slip process, which can give us more information about this intercontinental earthquake dynamics, thanks to the occurrence of many large earthquakes as well as to the thick fault gouge present here. The Bajiaomiao outcrop, crossing to the Yingxiu-Beichuan seismic fault rapture zone, consisted of fault breccia and gouge in the hanging wall and Quaternary conglomerate in the footwall. The samples from the hanging wall of this outcrop were used to study rock magnetic porperties. Basing on the in-situ field magnetic susceptibility measurement, high magnetic susceptibility values were found in the fault gouge, possibly induced by more new-formed ferrimagnetic minerals. We apply other rock magnetic methods (such as Isothermal Remanent Magnetization (IRM), high-temperature thermomagnetism (K-T)) to the samples from the Bajiaomiao outcrop. The IRM results show that the magnetite was present in the gouge and fault breccia of the hand hall of the Yingxiu-Beichuan seismic fault rapture zone. Basing on the K-T results, magnetite and other ferromagnetic minerals existed in the gouge and fault breccia; the <2 cm thick gouge close to the fault rapture zone had existed the only magnetic mineral of magnetite. This < 2cm gouge was most

  8. Paleoseismology Along the Japan Trench Subduction Zone: Deep-Sea Sediment Records of Earthquakes in Tohoku

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanamatsu, T.; Ikehara, K.; Strasser, M.; Usami, K.; McHugh, C. M.; Fink, H. G.; Nakamura, Y.; Kodaira, S.

    2014-12-01

    After the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, we have intensively explored earthquake-induced records in the deep-sea basins close to rupture zones of the 2011 and past earthquakes in Tohoku, Our study area focuses on small terminal basins near the trench for the following reason. Mass transport deposits from up-slope area down into the Japan Trench axis floor during the 2011 event were documented (e. g. Oguri et al., 2013). Similarly past earthquake-induced turbidites were expected to have been deposited in a number of small basins in the trench floor and in a lower slope terrace. Here we introduce our recent results and future prospects for paleoseismology in the Japan Trench. We collected cores from areas that are generally composed of diatomaceous fine grain sediment and fine-grained turbidites. Occasionally, wide spread tephra patches/layers are intercalated in the sediment. In the trench floor, two thick turbidite units below (older) than the 2011 event deposits were identified in up to 10m long sedimentary cores. An intercalated tephra within these turbidite units indicates that turbidites were triggered by historical earthquakes in Tohoku (Ikehara et al., in prep). On the other hand, frequent occurrence of thin-bedded turbidites was identified in the lower slope terrace. Several turbidite layers can be correlated over a wide area by tephra-correlation and matching of paleomagnetic secular variations (Usami et al., in this session). Turbidite-stratigraphy from both locations, the trench and lower slope terrace shows a similar pattern, and seems to be tied to the onland tsunami deposit stratigraphy straightforwardly. These observations suggest that deep-sea turbidite records are more reliable proxy for paleoseimic-stratigraphy of the Tohoku area. Encouraged by the results obtained so far, we plan extensive investigations in the area over the next few years to document effectively the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquake records of Tohoku.

  9. Major Existence of Very Low Frequency Earthquakes in Background Seismicity Along Subduction Zone of South-western Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishihara, Y.

    2003-12-01

    The condense, high quality and equalized broadband seismic network provided us to recognize the variety of seismic sources. The active volcanoes excite seismic waves with various frequency characteristics. Some cases show the long period seismic waves greater than 10 sec associates with volcanic activities. The tectonic seismic events originated at the close to trench zone are frequently lack of high frequency, greater than 1 Hz, seismic wave component. Meanwhile, the many low frequency earthquakes and tremors whose sources are not explicated are occurred in lower crust and subcrustal region. The subduction zone of Philippine Sea plate in south-western Japan is actively genetic area of low frequency earthquake group. The broadband seismic array of Japan region observed unknown long period ground motions. The seismograms are higher amplitude between 10 and 30 sec period than ground noise level. The earthquake JMA and USGS catalogues don_ft list about these long period seismograms. The arrival order of wave packet means that these events locate subduction zone around Japan. The hypocenters of unknown events are estimated by arrival times of vertical peak amplitude using the assumption that the ground motion dominates Rayleigh wave. The more detailed determination of major events is performed by combined technique for moment tensor inversion and grid search. The moment magnitude of uncatalogued event is greater than 3.5 because of the detection limitation. The largest event is distributed to about 4.5 Mw level and special event is greater than 5.0. The frequency characteristics show that source time is 7 to 20 sec by comparison with synthetic seismograms. We call these uncatalogued events _gvery low frequency earthquake_h. The hypocenters are located to two kinds of zones along the Philippine Sea subducting plate in south-western Japan. The one zone is very close to the trough. The seismicity listed by earthquake catalogues is low level in the zone and hypocenters are

  10. Evidence of shallow fault zone strengthening after the 1992 M7.5 Landers, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Li, Y.-G.; Vidale, J.E.; Aki, K.; Xu, Fei; Burdette, T.

    1998-01-01

    Repeated seismic surveys of the Landers, California, fault zone that ruptured in the magnitude (M) 7.5 earthquake of 1992 reveal an increase in seismic velocity with time. P, S, and fault zone trapped waves were excited by near-surface explosions in two locations in 1994 and 1996, and were recorded on two linear, three-component seismic arrays deployed across the Johnson Valley fault trace. The travel times of P and S waves for identical shot-receiver pairs decreased by 0.5 to 1.5 percent from 1994 to 1996, with the larger changes at stations located within the fault zone. These observations indicate that the shallow Johnson Valley fault is strengthening after the main shock, most likely because of closure of cracks that were opened by the 1992 earthquake. The increase in velocity is consistent with the prevalence of dry over wet cracks and with a reduction in the apparent crack density near the fault zone by approximately 1.0 percent from 1994 to 1996.

  11. Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software (OPAL)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, J. E.

    2011-07-01

    This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure was created to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1. overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost, and technology); 2. preliminary research, acquisition, and familiarisation for available ELE software packages; 3. assessment of these software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4. loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw = 7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment, Crowley et al., 2006), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States, FEMA, USA, 2003) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach, Lindholm et al., 2007) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic, and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data.

  12. Chronology of historical tsunamis in Mexico and its relation to large earthquakes along the subduction zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suarez, G.; Mortera, C.

    2013-05-01

    The chronology of historical earthquakes along the subduction zone in Mexico spans a time period of approximately 400 years. Although the population density along the coast of Mexico has always been low, relative to that of central Mexico, several of the large subduction earthquakes reports include references to the presence of tsunamis invading the southern coast of Mexico. Here we present a chronology of historical tsunamis affecting the Pacific coast of Mexico and compare this with the historical record of subduction events and to the existing Mexican and worldwide catalogs of tsunamis in the Pacific basin. Due to the geographical orientation of the Pacific coat of Mexico, tsunamis generated on the other subduction zones of the Pacific have not had damaging effects in the country. Among the tsunamis generated by local earthquakes, the largest one by far is the one produced by the earthquake of 28 March 1787. The reported tsunami has an inundation area that reaches for over 6 km inland. The length of the coast where the tsunami was reported extends for over 450 km. In the last 100 years two large tsunamis have been reported along the Pacific coast of Mexico. On 22 June 1932 a tsunami with reported wave heights of up to 11 m hit the coast of Jalisco and Colima. The town of Cuyutlan was heavily damaged and approximately 50 people lost their lives do to the impact of the tsunami. This unusual tsunami was generated by an aftershock (M 6.9) of the large 3 June 1932 event (M 8.1). The main shock of 3 June did not produce a perceptible tsunami. It has been proposed that the 22 June event is a tsunami earthquake generated on the shallow part of the subduction zone. On 16 November 1925 an unusual tsunami was reported in the town of Zihuatanejo in the state of Guerrero, Mexico. No earthquake on the Pacific rim occurs at the same time as this tsunami and the historical record of hurricanes and tropical storms do not list the presence of a meteorological disturbance that

  13. Mineral assemblage anomalies in the slip zone of the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake: Ultrafine particles preserved only in the latest slip zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirono, Tetsuro; Kameda, Jun; Kanda, Hiroki; Tanikawa, Wataru; Ishikawa, Tsuyoshi

    2014-05-01

    We determined mineral assemblages of samples from the Taiwan Chelungpu fault and from milling and heating experiments by using X-ray diffraction and scanning and transmission electron microscopy. The fault system contains three dominant fault zones, the shallowest of which slipped during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. The quartz and clay mineral contents of the primary slip zone were low, and it contained partly amorphous ultrafine particles (several tens of nanometers). Up to 30 weight percent of materials in that zone could not be fit to standard diffraction patterns, whereas nearly 100 weight percent of those in surrounding samples could be. The unfitted component could be attributed to the observed ultrafine particles produced by comminution during the earthquake, because weak diffraction intensities are caused from mineral lattice distortion, granulation, and amorphous coatings. Such particles are a potential proxy for identifying the slip zone of the most recent earthquake along a fault.

  14. Broad belts of shear zones: The common form of surface rupture produced by the 28 June 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, A.M.; Cruikshank, K.M. |; Fleming, R.W.

    1993-12-31

    Surface rupturing during the 28 June 1992, Landers, California earthquake, east of Los Angeles, accommodated right-lateral offsets up to about 6 m along segments of distinct, en echelon fault zones with a total length of about 80 km. The offsets were accommodated generally not by faults -- distinct slip surfaces -- but rather by shear zones, tabular bands of localized shearing. In long, straight stretches of fault zones at Landers the rupture is characterized by telescoping of shear zones and intensification of shearing: broad shear zones of mild shearing, containing narrow shear zones of more intense shearing, containing even-narrower shear zones of very intense shearing, which may contain a fault. Thus the ground ruptured across broad belts of shearing with subparallel walls, oriented NW. Each broad belt consists of a broad zone of mild shearing, extending across its entire width (50 to 200 m), and much narrower (a few m wide) shear zones that accommodate most of the offset of the belt and are portrayed by en echelon tension cracks. In response to right-lateral shearing, the slices of ground bounded by the tension cracks rotated in a clockwise sense, producing left lateral shearing, and the slices were forced against the walls of the shear zone, producing thrusting. Even narrower shear zones formed within the narrow shear zones, and some of these were faults. Although the narrower shear zones probably are indicators to right-lateral fault segments at depth, the surface rupturing during the earthquake is characterized not by faulting, but by zones of shearing at various scales. Furthermore, understanding of the formation of the shear zones may be critical to understanding of earthquake faulting because, where faulting is associated with the formation of a shear zone, the faulting occurs late in the development of the shear zone. The faulting occurs after a shear zone or a belt of shear zones forms.

  15. Forecast model for great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, W.D.

    1988-01-01

    An earthquake instability model is formulated for recurring great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone in southwest Japan. The model is quasistatic, two-dimensional, and has a displacement and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at the fault plane. A constant rate of fault slip at depth represents forcing due to relative motion of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates. The model simulates fault slip and stress for all parts of repeated earthquake cycles, including post-, inter-, pre- and coseismic stages. Calculated ground uplift is in agreement with most of the main features of elevation changes observed before and after the M=8.1 1946 Nankaido earthquake. In model simulations, accelerating fault slip has two time-scales. The first time-scale is several years long and is interpreted as an intermediate-term precursor. The second time-scale is a few days long and is interpreted as a short-term precursor. Accelerating fault slip on both time-scales causes anomalous elevation changes of the ground surface over the fault plane of 100 mm or less within 50 km of the fault trace. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

  16. In-Situ Observations of Earthquake-Driven Fluid Pulses within the Japan Trench Plate Boundary Fault Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fulton, P. M.; Brodsky, E. E.

    2014-12-01

    Fault valving and transient fluid flow has long been suspected to be an important process in the earthquake cycle, but has not previously been captured by direct measurements during an episode. In particular, earthquakes are thought to drive fluids in fault zones, but again, evidence has been limited to the geologic record. Here we report on the signature of fluid pumping events inside the Tohoku Fault associated with individual earthquakes. As part of the Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project (JFAST), a sub-seafloor temperature observatory was installed across the plate boundary fault zone that ruptured during the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake. The observatory consisted of 55 autonomous temperature sensing dataloggers extending up to 820 m below sea floor at a water depth of ~7 km. The temporary deployment recorded data from July 2012 through April 2013. In addition to measuring the frictional heat signal from the megathrust earthquake, the high-resolution temperature time series data reveal spatially coherent temperature transients following regional earthquakes. Temperature increases vertically upwards from a fracture zone and decreases downwards, which is consistent with the expected signature of a pulse entering the annulus from the fracture zone. The anomalies are a few hundredths of degree Celsius and occur repeatedly at depths that are independently interpreted to have higher fracture permeability. High-pass filtered data are spatially correlated in areas disturbed by transient fluid advection. Fluid pulses occur in response to over a dozen local earthquakes, including a Mw 5.4 on 14 October 2012, a Mw 5.5 on 11 November 2012, and a doublet of two very local Mw 7.2 intraplate earthquakes on 7 December 2012, along with its associated aftershocks. There does not appear to be a response to large far-field earthquakes such as the 28 October 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii or 6 February 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz Islands earthquakes. These measurements provide the first in

  17. Spatiotemporal earthquake clusters along the North Anatolian fault zone offshore Istanbul

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bulut, Fatih; Ellsworth, William L.; Bohnhoff, Marco; Aktar, Mustafa; Dresen, Georg

    2011-01-01

    We investigate earthquakes with similar waveforms in order to characterize spatiotemporal microseismicity clusters within the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) in northwest Turkey along the transition between the 1999 ??zmit rupture zone and the Marmara Sea seismic gap. Earthquakes within distinct activity clusters are relocated with cross-correlation derived relative travel times using the double difference method. The spatiotemporal distribution of micro earthquakes within individual clusters is resolved with relative location accuracy comparable to or better than the source size. High-precision relative hypocenters define the geometry of individual fault patches, permitting a better understanding of fault kinematics and their role in local-scale seismotectonics along the region of interest. Temporal seismic sequences observed in the eastern Sea of Marmara region suggest progressive failure of mostly nonoverlapping areas on adjacent fault patches and systematic migration of microearthquakes within clusters during the progressive failure of neighboring fault patches. The temporal distributions of magnitudes as well as the number of events follow swarmlike behavior rather than a mainshock/aftershock pattern.

  18. Ambient seafloor noise excited by earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone.

    PubMed

    Tonegawa, Takashi; Fukao, Yoshio; Takahashi, Tsutomu; Obana, Koichiro; Kodaira, Shuichi; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Excitations of seismic background noises are mostly related to fluid disturbances in the atmosphere, ocean and the solid Earth. Earthquakes have not been considered as a stationary excitation source because they occur intermittently. Here we report that acoustic-coupled Rayleigh waves (at 0.7-2.0 Hz) travelling in the ocean and marine sediments, retrieved by correlating ambient noise on a hydrophone array deployed through a shallow to deep seafloor (100-4,800 m) across the Nankai Trough, Japan, are incessantly excited by nearby small earthquakes. The observed cross-correlation functions and 2D numerical simulations for wave propagation through a laterally heterogeneous ocean-crust system show that, in a subduction zone, energetic wave sources are located primarily under the seafloor in directions consistent with nearby seismicity, and secondarily in the ocean. Short-period background noise in the ocean-crust system in the Nankai subduction zone is mainly attributed to ocean-acoustic Rayleigh waves of earthquake origin. PMID:25635384

  19. Ambient seafloor noise excited by earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone

    PubMed Central

    Tonegawa, Takashi; Fukao, Yoshio; Takahashi, Tsutomu; Obana, Koichiro; Kodaira, Shuichi; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Excitations of seismic background noises are mostly related to fluid disturbances in the atmosphere, ocean and the solid Earth. Earthquakes have not been considered as a stationary excitation source because they occur intermittently. Here we report that acoustic-coupled Rayleigh waves (at 0.7–2.0 Hz) travelling in the ocean and marine sediments, retrieved by correlating ambient noise on a hydrophone array deployed through a shallow to deep seafloor (100–4,800 m) across the Nankai Trough, Japan, are incessantly excited by nearby small earthquakes. The observed cross-correlation functions and 2D numerical simulations for wave propagation through a laterally heterogeneous ocean–crust system show that, in a subduction zone, energetic wave sources are located primarily under the seafloor in directions consistent with nearby seismicity, and secondarily in the ocean. Short-period background noise in the ocean–crust system in the Nankai subduction zone is mainly attributed to ocean-acoustic Rayleigh waves of earthquake origin. PMID:25635384

  20. Distribution of stress drop, stiffness, and fracture energy over earthquake rupture zones

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fletcher, Joe B.; McGarr, A.

    2006-01-01

    Using information provided by slip models and the methodology of McGarr and Fletcher (2002), we map static stress drop, stiffness (k = ????/u, where ???? is static stress drop and u is slip), and fracture energy over the slip surface to investigate the earthquake rupture process and energy budget. For the 1994 M6.7 Northridge, 1992 M7.3 Landers, and 1995 M6.9 Kobe earthquakes, the distributions of static stress drop show strong heterogeneity, emphasizing the importance of asperities in the rupture process. Average values of static stress drop are 17, 11, and 4 Mpa for Northridge, Landers, and Kobe, respectively. These values are substantially higher than estimates based on simple crack models, suggesting that the failure process involves the rupture of asperities within the larger fault zone. Stress drop as a function of depth for the Northridge and Landers earthquakes suggests that stress drops are limited by crustal strength. For these two earthquakes, regions of high slip are surrounded by high values of stiffness. Particularly for the Northridge earthquake, the prominent patch of high slip in the central part of the fault is bordered by a ring of high stiffness and is consistent with expectations based on the failure of an asperity loaded at its edge due to exterior slip. Stiffness within an asperity is inversely related to its dimensions. Estimates of fracture energy, based on static stress drop, slip, and rupture speed, were used to investigate the nature of slip weakening at four locations near the hypocenter of the Kobe earthquake for comparison with independent results based on a dynamic model of this earthquake. One subfault updip and to the NE of the hypocenter has a fracture energy of 1.1 MJ/m2 and a slip-weakening distance, Dc, of 0.66 m. Right triangles, whose base and height are Dc and the dynamic stress drop, respectively, approximately overlie the slip-dependent stress given by Ide and Takeo (1997) for the same locations near the hypocenter. The

  1. Mapping apparent stress and energy radiation over fault zones of major earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.

    2002-01-01

    Using published slip models for five major earthquakes, 1979 Imperial Valley, 1989 Loma Prieta, 1992 Landers, 1994 Northridge, and 1995 Kobe, we produce maps of apparent stress and radiated seismic energy over their fault surfaces. The slip models, obtained by inverting seismic and geodetic data, entail the division of the fault surfaces into many subfaults for which the time histories of seismic slip are determined. To estimate the seismic energy radiated by each subfault, we measure the near-fault seismic-energy flux from the time-dependent slip there and then multiply by a function of rupture velocity to obtain the corresponding energy that propagates into the far-field. This function, the ratio of far-field to near-fault energy, is typically less than 1/3, inasmuch as most of the near-fault energy remains near the fault and is associated with permanent earthquake deformation. Adding the energy contributions from all of the subfaults yields an estimate of the total seismic energy, which can be compared with independent energy estimates based on seismic-energy flux measured in the far-field, often at teleseismic distances. Estimates of seismic energy based on slip models are robust, in that different models, for a given earthquake, yield energy estimates that are in close agreement. Moreover, the slip-model estimates of energy are generally in good accord with independent estimates by others, based on regional or teleseismic data. Apparent stress is estimated for each subfault by dividing the corresponding seismic moment into the radiated energy. Distributions of apparent stress over an earthquake fault zone show considerable heterogeneity, with peak values that are typically about double the whole-earthquake values (based on the ratio of seismic energy to seismic moment). The range of apparent stresses estimated for subfaults of the events studied here is similar to the range of apparent stresses for earthquakes in continental settings, with peak values of about

  2. Deep low-frequency earthquakes in tremor localize to the plate interface in multiple subduction zones

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, J.R.; Beroza, G.C.; Ide, S.; Ohta, K.; Shelly, D.R.; Schwartz, S.Y.; Rabbel, W.; Thorwart, M.; Kao, H.

    2009-01-01

    Deep tremor under Shikoku, Japan, consists primarily, and perhaps entirely, of swarms of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) that occur as shear slip on the plate interface. Although tremor is observed at other plate boundaries, the lack of cataloged low-frequency earthquakes has precluded a similar conclusion about tremor in those locales. We use a network autocorrelation approach to detect and locate LFEs within tremor recorded at three subduction zones characterized by different thermal structures and levels of interplate seismicity: southwest Japan, northern Cascadia, and Costa Rica. In each case we find that LFEs are the primary constituent of tremor and that they locate on the deep continuation of the plate boundary. This suggests that tremor in these regions shares a common mechanism and that temperature is not the primary control on such activity. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Using earthquake clusters to identify fracture zones at Puna geothermal field, Hawaii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, A.; Shalev, E.; Malin, P.; Kenedi, C. L.

    2010-12-01

    The actively producing Puna geothermal system (PGS) is located on the Kilauea East Rift Zone (ERZ), which extends out from the active Kilauea volcano on Hawaii. In the Puna area the rift trend is identified as NE-SW from surface expressions of normal faulting with a corresponding strike; at PGS the surface expression offsets in a left step, but no rift perpendicular faulting is observed. An eight station borehole seismic network has been installed in the area of the geothermal system. Since June 2006, a total of 6162 earthquakes have been located close to or inside the geothermal system. The spread of earthquake locations follows the rift trend, but down rift to the NE of PGS almost no earthquakes are observed. Most earthquakes located within the PGS range between 2-3 km depth. Up rift to the SW of PGS the number of events decreases and the depth range increases to 3-4 km. All initial locations used Hypoinverse71 and showed no trends other than the dominant rift parallel. Double difference relocation of all earthquakes, using both catalog and cross-correlation, identified one large cluster but could not conclusively identify trends within the cluster. A large number of earthquake waveforms showed identifiable shear wave splitting. For five stations out of the six where shear wave splitting was observed, the dominant polarization direction was rift parallel. Two of the five stations also showed a smaller rift perpendicular signal. The sixth station (located close to the area of the rift offset) displayed a N-S polarization, approximately halfway between rift parallel and perpendicular. The shear wave splitting time delays indicate that fracture density is higher at the PGS compared to the surrounding ERZ. Correlation co-efficient clustering with independent P and S wave windows was used to identify clusters based on similar earthquake waveforms. In total, 40 localized clusters containing ten or more events were identified. The largest cluster was located in the

  4. Electromagnetic Precursors Leading to Triangulation of Future Earthquakes and Imaging of the Subduction Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heraud, J. A.; Centa, V. A.; Bleier, T.

    2015-12-01

    During several sessions in past AGU meetings, reports on the progress of analysis of magnetometer data have been given, as our research moved from a one dimensional geometry, to two and finally to a three dimensional image. In the first case, we learned how to extract one coordinate, azimuth information, on the occurrence of an earthquake based on the processing of mono-polar pulses received at a single station. A two dimensional geometry was implemented through triangulation and we showed the use of this technique to find out where a future epicenter would occur. Recently, we have obtained compelling evidence that the pressure points leading to the determination of future epicenters originate at a plane, inclined with the same angle as the subduction zone, a three-dimensional position of the future hypocenter. Hence, an image of the subduction zone or interface between the Nazca plate and the continental plate in the northern area of Lima, Peru, has been obtained, corresponding to the subduction zone obtained by traditional seismic methods. Our work with magnetometers deployed along part of the Peruvian coast since 2009, has shown that it is possible to measure, with significant precision, the azimuth of electromagnetic pulses propagating from stress points in the earth's crust due to the subduction of tectonic plates, as to be able to determine precisely the origin of the pulses. The occurrence of earthquakes approximately 11 to 18 days after the appearance of the first pulses and the recognition of grouping of such pulses, has allowed us to determine accurately the direction and the timing of future seismic events. Magnetometers, donated by Quakefinder and Telefonica del Peru were then strategically installed in different locations in Peru with the purpose of achieving triangulation. During two years since 2013, about a dozen earthquakes have been associated with future seismic activity in a pre or post occurrence way. Our presentation will be based on animated

  5. Velocity Structure in the West Bohemia Seismic Zone: Velocity Models Retrieved from different Earthquake Swarms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandrakis, C.; Löberich, E.; Kieslich, A.; Calo, M.; Vavrycuk, V.; Buske, S.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake swarms, fluid migration and gas springs are indications of the ongoing geodynamic processes within the West Bohemia seismic zone located at the Czech-German border. The possible relationship between the fluids, gas and seismicity is of particular interest and has motivated numerous past, ongoing and future studies, including a multidisciplinary monitoring proposal through the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP). The most seismically active area within the West Bohemia seismic zone is located at the Czech town Nový Kostel. The Nový Kostel zone experiences frequent swarms of several hundreds to thousands of earthquakes over a period of weeks to several months. The seismicity is always located in the same area and depth range (~5-15 km), however the activated fault segments and planes differ. For example, the 2008 swarm activated faults along the southern end of the seismic zone, the 2011 swarm activated the northern segment, and the recent 2014 swarm activated the middle of the seismic zone. This indicates changes to the local stress field, and may relate to fluid migration and/or the complicated tectonic situation. The West Bohemia Seismic Network (WEBNET) is ideally located for studying the Nový Kostel swarm area and provides good azimuthal coverage. Here, we use the high quality P- and S-wave arrival picks recorded by WEBNET to calculate swarm-dependent velocity models for the 2008 and 2011 swarms, and an averaged (swarm independent) model using earthquakes recorded between 1991 and 2011. To this end, we use double-difference tomography to calculate P- and S-wave velocity models. The models are compared and examined in terms of swarm-dependent velocities and structures. Since the P-to-S velocity ratio is particularly sensitive to the presence of pore fluids, we derive ratio models directly from the inverted P- and S-wave models in order to investigate the potential influence of fluids on the seismicity. Finally, clustering

  6. Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Bastiaanssen, Wim G. M.; Gao, Hongkai; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Senay, Gabriel B.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Guerschman, Juan P.; Keys, Patrick W.; Gordon, Line J.; Savenije, Hubert H. G.

    2016-04-01

    This study presents an "Earth observation-based" method for estimating root zone storage capacity - a critical, yet uncertain parameter in hydrological and land surface modelling. By assuming that vegetation optimises its root zone storage capacity to bridge critical dry periods, we were able to use state-of-the-art satellite-based evaporation data computed with independent energy balance equations to derive gridded root zone storage capacity at global scale. This approach does not require soil or vegetation information, is model independent, and is in principle scale independent. In contrast to a traditional look-up table approach, our method captures the variability in root zone storage capacity within land cover types, including in rainforests where direct measurements of root depths otherwise are scarce. Implementing the estimated root zone storage capacity in the global hydrological model STEAM (Simple Terrestrial Evaporation to Atmosphere Model) improved evaporation simulation overall, and in particular during the least evaporating months in sub-humid to humid regions with moderate to high seasonality. Our results suggest that several forest types are able to create a large storage to buffer for severe droughts (with a very long return period), in contrast to, for example, savannahs and woody savannahs (medium length return period), as well as grasslands, shrublands, and croplands (very short return period). The presented method to estimate root zone storage capacity eliminates the need for poor resolution soil and rooting depth data that form a limitation for achieving progress in the global land surface modelling community.

  7. Stress development in heterogenetic lithosphere: Insights into earthquake processes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhan, Yan; Hou, Guiting; Kusky, Timothy; Gregg, Patricia M.

    2016-03-01

    The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the Midwestern United States was the site of several major M 6.8-8 earthquakes in 1811-1812, and remains seismically active. Although this region has been investigated extensively, the ultimate controls on earthquake initiation and the duration of the seismicity remain unclear. In this study, we develop a finite element model for the Central United States to conduct a series of numerical experiments with the goal of determining the impact of heterogeneity in the upper crust, the lower crust, and the mantle on earthquake nucleation and rupture processes. Regional seismic tomography data (CITE) are utilized to infer the viscosity structure of the lithosphere which provide an important input to the numerical models. Results indicate that when differential stresses build in the Central United States, the stresses accumulating beneath the Reelfoot Rift in the NMSZ are highly concentrated, whereas the stresses below the geologically similar Midcontinent Rift System are comparatively low. The numerical observations coincide with the observed distribution of seismicity throughout the region. By comparing the numerical results with three reference models, we argue that an extensive mantle low velocity zone beneath the NMSZ produces differential stress localization in the layers above. Furthermore, the relatively strong crust in this region, exhibited by high seismic velocities, enables the elevated stress to extend to the base of the ancient rift system, reactivating fossil rifting faults and therefore triggering earthquakes. These results show that, if boundary displacements are significant, the NMSZ is able to localize tectonic stresses, which may be released when faults close to failure are triggered by external processes such as melting of the Laurentide ice sheet or rapid river incision.

  8. Geologic Hazards Associated with Longmen Shan Fault zone, During and After the Mw 8.0, May 12, 2008 Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, X.; Kusky, T.; Li, Z.

    2008-12-01

    A magnitude 8.0 earthquake shook the northeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, on May 12, 2008 along the Longmen Shan orogenic belt that marks the boundary between the Songpan Ganzi terrane and Yangtze block. The Tibetan plateau is expanding eastwards, and GPS observations show that surface motion directions are northeast relative to the Sizhuan basin where the earthquake occurred. This sense of motion of crustal blocks is the reason why the main faults in Longmen Shan are oblique thrust-dextral strike slip faults. There are three main parallel thrust/ dextral-slip faults in Longmen Shan. All three faults strike northeast and dip to northwest. The May 12 rupture extends 270 km along the fault zone, and the epicenter of the magnitude 8.0 earthquake was located in Wenchuan, 90 km WNW of Chengdu, Sichuan, China. The devastating earthquake killed at least 87,652 people and destroyed all the buildings in epicenter. The victims of the earthquake zone want to rebuild their homes immediately, but they need more suggestions about the geologic hazards to help them withstand future possible earthquakes. So after earthquake, we went to disaster areas from July 5th to 10th to get first-hand field data, which include observations of surface ruptures, landslides, features of X joints on the damaged buildings, parameters of the active faults and landslides. If we only depend on the field data in accessible locations, we can only know the information of the ruptures in these positions, and we can't learn more information about the whole area affected by the earthquake. The earthquake zone shows surface rupture features of both thrust and strike-slip fault activities, indicating oblique slip followed by thrusting during the May 12 earthquake. In my talk, I will show the general regional geological disaster information by processing the pro- and post-earthquake satellite data. Then we combine the raw field data and regional geology as the restrictive conditions to determine the

  9. Identification of a major segment boundary between two megathrust subduction zone earthquakes from aftershock seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobiesiak, M.; Victor, P.; Eggert, S.

    2009-04-01

    Aftershock seismicity is commonly used to characterize the extent of rupture planes of megathrust earthquakes. From unique datasets, covering the two adjacent fault planes of the Mw 8.0, 1995, Antofagasta and the Mw 7.7, 2007, Tocopilla earthquakes, we were able to identify a segment boundary (SB), located beneath Mejillones Peninsula. This segment boundary hosted the onset of the Antofagasta rupture and constituted the end of the Tocopilla rupture plane. The data recorded during the mission of the German Task Force for Earthquakes after the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake is supporting our observations regarding the northern part of the SB. 34 seismological stations registered the aftershocks from November 2007 until May 2008. First hypocenter determinations show that the aftershock sequences of both events meet along this E-W oriented segment boundary. The segment boundary is furthermore conformed by the historic record of megathrust events. Evidence for long term persistency of this SB comes from geological observations as differential uplift rates across the boundary and different fault patterns. Geomorpholocical analysis defines a topographic anomaly ~ 20 km wide and oriented along strike the SB..The main shock hypocenter determinations (NEIC, local network, ISC) which are related to the start of the rupture are all located in this zone. The SB is further characterized by intermediate b-values derived from a spatial b-value study of the Antofagasta fault plane and hosts several elongated clusters of aftershock seismicity. A detailed study of the focal mechanism solutions in one of these clusters showed a number of aligned strike slip events with one E-W striking nodal plane having a strike angle which is similar to the angle of subduction obliquity of the oceanic Nazca plate in this area. In further investigations we will search for detailed information on the nature and dynamics of processes along such a segment boundary, their meaning for the initiation of large

  10. Single-Station Strong Ground-Motion Relationship for North Eastern Taiwan Subduction Zone Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, Ting-Yu; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

    2016-04-01

    Sigma (standard deviation) of ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) has great impact on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Therefore, how to properly evaluate the sigma has been a crucial issue currently. It is very suitable for seismic-related research due to the abundant earthquake data in Taiwan. With establishing single-station GMPE, the sigma can be reduced due to eliminating the variance from site effect. In this study, ground-motion data of subduction zone for both interface and intraslab earthquakes are obtained from the Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP). A total of 174 earthquakes and 14,551 records which moment magnitude greater than 4.0 are selected to establish PGA attenuation relationship. We chose the general usage of the functional forms by reviewing of previous studies. Each candidate term in the form was tested with Taiwan data set. The final form is generally similar to the form proposed by Lin and Lee (2008), besides a quadratic magnitude term, a VS30 term and a focal mechanism term were added. The coefficients of the equation are determined through non-linear regression analysis using maximum likelihood method (MLE) and mixed-effects model. Both regional GMPE and 44 single-station GMPEs are done in this study. The results show that intraslab earthquakes generaly predict higher PGA than that of interface earthquakes. Comparing the sigma of regional GMPE and single-station GMPEs, the single-station sigmas are smaller than the regional sigma with a reduction rate from 1.5% to 37.0%, averaging 21.7%.

  11. Subcrustal earthquakes in the plate boundary zone of New Zealand's South Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boese, C. M.; Stern, T. A.; Townend, J.; Sheehan, A. F.; Molnar, P. H.; Collins, J. A.; Karalliyadda, S.; Bourguignon, S.; Bannister, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    Sporadic, intermediate-depth earthquakes have been observed for ~40 years in the vicinity of the Alpine Fault, a 460 km-long transpressive fault forming the western boundary of the Southern Alps. The Alpine Fault represents the plate boundary between the Australian and Pacific Plates in New Zealand and links two subduction zones of opposite polarity in the North and South. Several earthquakes at depths of 59-85 km have been recorded by the Southern Alps Microearthquake Borehole Array (SAMBA) since its deployment in November 2008. Due to large numbers of impulsive phase arrivals, focal mechanisms were obtained for these events during routine processing. In 2009 and early 2010, several additional temporary seismometer networks were operating in the central Southern Alps (Alpine Fault Array ALFA, Deep Fault Drilling Project 2010 DFDP10) and the offshore region west of the South Island (Marine Observations of Anisotropy Near Aotearoa MOANA). To gain more insight about the cause and mechanism of these deep events, a comprehensive analysis has been performed incorporating data from all available instruments. Accurate hypocentres of 22 earthquakes (ML<4) and focal mechanisms of at least 14 events have been obtained. The focal mechanisms reveal that reverse faulting predominates at depth in the continental collision zone between the Pacific and Australian Plates. The intermediate-depth events occur below the Moho discontinuity, which has been mapped in detail using wide-angle reflection/refraction data obtained during the South Island Geophysical Transect (SIGHT) project in 1995/96. Although the cause for these subcrustal earthquakes is not yet clear, they have previously been interpreted to result from intra-continental subduction (Reyners 1987), high shear-strain gradients due to depressed geotherms and viscous deformation of mantle lithosphere (Kohler and Eberhart-Phillips 2003). On the basis of the locations and mechanisms obtained using SAMBA, we have argued that

  12. Possible control of subduction zone slow-earthquake periodicity by silica enrichment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Audet, Pascal; Bürgmann, Roland

    2014-06-01

    Seismic and geodetic observations in subduction zone forearcs indicate that slow earthquakes, including episodic tremor and slip, recur at intervals of less than six months to more than two years. In Cascadia, slow slip is segmented along strike and tremor data show a gradation from large, infrequent slip episodes to small, frequent slip events with increasing depth of the plate interface. Observations and models of slow slip and tremor require the presence of near-lithostatic pore-fluid pressures in slow-earthquake source regions; however, direct evidence of factors controlling the variability in recurrence times is elusive. Here we compile seismic data from subduction zone forearcs exhibiting recurring slow earthquakes and show that the average ratio of compressional (P)-wave velocity to shear (S)-wave velocity (vP/vS) of the overlying forearc crust ranges between 1.6 and 2.0 and is linearly related to the average recurrence time of slow earthquakes. In northern Cascadia, forearc vP/vS values decrease with increasing depth of the plate interface and with decreasing tremor-episode recurrence intervals. Low vP/vS values require a large addition of quartz in a mostly mafic forearc environment. We propose that silica enrichment varying from 5 per cent to 15 per cent by volume from slab-derived fluids and upward mineralization in quartz veins can explain the range of observed vP/vS values as well as the downdip decrease in vP/vS. The solubility of silica depends on temperature, and deposition prevails near the base of the forearc crust. We further propose that the strong temperature dependence of healing and permeability reduction in silica-rich fault gouge via dissolution-precipitation creep can explain the reduction in tremor recurrence time with progressive silica enrichment. Lower gouge permeability at higher temperatures leads to faster fluid overpressure development and low effective fault-normal stress, and therefore shorter recurrence times. Our results also

  13. Possible control of subduction zone slow-earthquake periodicity by silica enrichment.

    PubMed

    Audet, Pascal; Bürgmann, Roland

    2014-06-19

    Seismic and geodetic observations in subduction zone forearcs indicate that slow earthquakes, including episodic tremor and slip, recur at intervals of less than six months to more than two years. In Cascadia, slow slip is segmented along strike and tremor data show a gradation from large, infrequent slip episodes to small, frequent slip events with increasing depth of the plate interface. Observations and models of slow slip and tremor require the presence of near-lithostatic pore-fluid pressures in slow-earthquake source regions; however, direct evidence of factors controlling the variability in recurrence times is elusive. Here we compile seismic data from subduction zone forearcs exhibiting recurring slow earthquakes and show that the average ratio of compressional (P)-wave velocity to shear (S)-wave velocity (vP/vS) of the overlying forearc crust ranges between 1.6 and 2.0 and is linearly related to the average recurrence time of slow earthquakes. In northern Cascadia, forearc vP/vS values decrease with increasing depth of the plate interface and with decreasing tremor-episode recurrence intervals. Low vP/vS values require a large addition of quartz in a mostly mafic forearc environment. We propose that silica enrichment varying from 5 per cent to 15 per cent by volume from slab-derived fluids and upward mineralization in quartz veins can explain the range of observed vP/vS values as well as the downdip decrease in vP/vS. The solubility of silica depends on temperature, and deposition prevails near the base of the forearc crust. We further propose that the strong temperature dependence of healing and permeability reduction in silica-rich fault gouge via dissolution-precipitation creep can explain the reduction in tremor recurrence time with progressive silica enrichment. Lower gouge permeability at higher temperatures leads to faster fluid overpressure development and low effective fault-normal stress, and therefore shorter recurrence times. Our results also

  14. THE MISSING EARTHQUAKES OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY: RECONCILING RECURRENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATES, SOUTHERN CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patton, J. R.; Leroy, T. H.

    2009-12-01

    Earthquake and tsunami hazard for northwestern California and southern Oregon is predominately based on estimates of recurrence for earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone and upper plate thrust faults, each with unique deformation and recurrence histories. Coastal northern California is uniquely located to enable us to distinguish these different sources of seismic hazard as the accretionary prism extends on land in this region. This region experiences ground deformation from rupture of upper plate thrust faults like the Little Salmon fault. Most of this region is thought to be above the locked zone of the megathrust, so is subject to vertical deformation during the earthquake cycle. Secondary evidence of earthquake history is found here in the form of marsh soils that coseismically subside and commonly are overlain by estuarine mud and rarely tsunami sand. It is not currently known what the source of the subsidence is for this region; it may be due to upper plate rupture, megathrust rupture, or a combination of the two. Given that many earlier investigations utilized bulk peat for 14C age determinations and that these early studies were largely reconnaissance work, these studies need to be reevaluated. Recurrence Interval estimates are inconsistent when comparing terrestrial (~500 years) and marine (~220 years) data sets. This inconsistency may be due to 1) different sources of archival bias in marine and terrestrial data sets and/or 2) different sources of deformation. Factors controlling successful archiving of paleoseismic data are considered as this relates to geologic setting and how that might change through time. We compile, evaluate, and rank existing paleoseismic data in order to prioritize future paleoseismic investigations. 14C ages are recalibrated and quality assessments are made for each age determination. We then evaluate geologic setting and prioritize important research locations and goals based on these existing data. Terrestrial core

  15. Combining GPS and repeating earthquakes for a high resolution analysis of subduction zone coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weston, J.; Shirzaei, M.

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly complex spatiotemporal patterns of subduction zone coupling are being revealed by geodetic and seismic observations. Understanding the mechanisms which control it is useful for improving seismic hazard assessments. GPS and characteristically repeating earthquakes (CREs) are complementary datasets for monitoring aseismic slip. Here, both of them are combined to estimate the rate and distribution of creep on the northeast Japan subduction zone between 21 March 1996 and 24 September 2003. We find that the majority of the upper part at 0-30 km depth remains locked. There are three regions creeping at 7-8 cm/yr distributed along-strike at 40-70 km depth. We observe that these creeping regions occur in areas of low effective pressure and reduced porosity, which are inferred from Vp and Vs velocities. Moreover, an area of high clay content and high effective pressure coincides with the rupture area of the Tohoku-oki earthquake. We discuss these results in the context of potential mechanisms governing creep in northeast Japan. Our results highlight the benefits of combining GPS and CREs for advancing our understanding of the seismic cycle in subduction zones.

  16. Thrust-type subduction-zone earthquakes and seamount asperites: A physical model for seismic rupture

    SciTech Connect

    Cloos, M. )

    1992-07-01

    A thrust-type subduction-zone earthquake of M{sub W} 7.6 ruptures an area of {approximately}6,000 km{sup 2}, has a seismic slip of {approximately}1 m, and is nucleated by the rupture of an asperity {approximately}25km across. A model for thrust-type subduction-zone seismicity is proposed in which basaltic seamounts jammed against the base of the overriding plate act as strong asperities that rupture by stick-slip faulting. A M{sub W} 7.6 event would correspond to the near-basal rupture of a {approximately}2-km-tall seamount. The base of the seamount is surrounded by a low shear-strength layer composed of subducting sediment that also deforms between seismic events by distributed strain (viscous flow). Planar faults form in this layer as the seismic rupture propagates out of the seamount at speeds of kilometers per second. The faults in the shear zone are disrupted after the event by aseismic, slow viscous flow of the subducting sediment layer. Consequently, the extent of fault rupture varies for different earthquakes nucleated at the same seamount asperity because new fault surfaces form in the surrounding subducting sediment layer during each fast seismic rupture.

  17. Exploring Lesser Antilles subduction zone locking through modeling of cGPS and earthquake seismology data.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Higgins, M.; Weber, J. C.; Robertson, R. E. A.

    2014-12-01

    We are undertaking a study to better determine the locking characteristics of Lesser Antilles subduction zone using new cGPS data from 20 stations in the Lesser Antilles volcanic islands and outboard islands in the forearc sliver. The new data come from the SRC, IGS and IPGP cGPS networks. Each site we use has a minimum of 3 years of data, and raw site velocities have average uncertainties in the horizontal on order ≤ 2 mm/yr. Eventually, we also hope to incorporate vertical velocities, which have slightly larger uncertainties, into the model along with earthquake slip vectors from the Harvard CMT catalog. We model the cGPS data using Defnode, which performs inverse modeling using the Okada (1985; 1992) method to determine the elastic slip distribution along block (CA plate, NA plate, SA plate, forearc sliver) boundaries. Free parameters are the distribution of locking ratios of the fault representing the subduction zone, and deformation in each block. Our model's weakness is that it is constrained by data from islands with a limited distribution in trying to model a large area. Using the SRC earthquake catalogue, the subduction zone was gridded and we summed the total seismic moment for each grid cell, using only M>3.5 earthquakes with low RMS values. The gridded seismic moment rates were then averaged over the length of time of the complete catalog. Several models were then produced with Defnode and a solution optimization technique that estimated the locking ratio distribution. The models' resulting seismic moment rates are then compared against those gleaned from the SRC catalogue. Previous works have suggested that subducting ridges on the NA plate may indeed be locked, this work also tries to identify the locking ratio of these ridges.

  18. Study on earthquake potential and GPS deformation of the middle-southern segment of the Liupanshan fault zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Du; Xue-Ze, Wen; Ming-Jian, Liang; Feng, Long; Jiang, Wu

    2016-04-01

    The Liupanshan fault zone is a border-type and active thrust zone between the Qinghai-Tibet block and the North China block. The fault zone trends nearly N-S direction north of Guyuan and NNW-direction south of Guyuan. The middle segment of the fault zone consists of several branches, including the western and eastern branches, as well as the Xiaoguanshan fault. They are all belonging to active thrust faults in the late Quaternary. The southern segment of the fault zone also consists of several branches, such as the Taoyuan-Guichuansi fault, the Guguan-Baoji fault and the Longxian-Zhishan-Mazhao fault. They exhibit mainly sinistral strike-slip faulting. We have identified a seismic gap of major earthquakes which exists in the middle segment of the Liupanshan fault zone, south of Guyuan. Several historical earthquakes occurred on the fault zone at and north of Guyuan, among them are the 1219 M=7 event, the 1306 M=7 event, and the 1622 M=7 event. The southern segment of the Liupanshan fault zone could be the seismogenic one of the Tianshui-Longxian earthquake of 600 AD. This early historical event might have a greater magnitude than 61/2 that is given in the current earthquake catalog. No strong earthquake occurred on the southern segment of the Liupanshan fault zone between Longde and Longxian in the documentedly recorded history. So, the time period without major earthquake rupture in the seismic gap on the middle segment of the fault zone is at least 1415 years. The seismic gap has a length of about 70 km. The GPS velocity profile across middle-southern segment of the Liupanshan fault zone suggests that inter-seismic locking is happening there. An analysis of the GPS velocity profiles mainly shows that, horizontal shortening is occurring from west to east in the fault-perpendicular direction and horizontal left-lateral shearing parallel to the fault's strike is occurring in the area from the middle segment of the fault zone to tens of kilometers away west of the

  19. Development of a Global Slope Dataset for Estimation of Landslide Occurrence Resulting from Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Verdin, Kristine L.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Funk, Christopher C.; Pedreros, Diego; Worstell, Bruce; Verdin, James

    2007-01-01

    Landslides resulting from earthquakes can cause widespread loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed an alarm system, PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), that aims to provide timely information to emergency relief organizations on the impact of earthquakes. Landslides are responsible for many of the damaging effects following large earthquakes in mountainous regions, and thus data defining the topographic relief and slope are critical to the PAGER system. A new global topographic dataset was developed to aid in rapidly estimating landslide potential following large earthquakes. We used the remotely-sensed elevation data collected as part of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to generate a slope dataset with nearly global coverage. Slopes from the SRTM data, computed at 3-arc-second resolution, were summarized at 30-arc-second resolution, along with statistics developed to describe the distribution of slope within each 30-arc-second pixel. Because there are many small areas lacking SRTM data and the northern limit of the SRTM mission was lat 60?N., statistical methods referencing other elevation data were used to fill the voids within the dataset and to extrapolate the data north of 60?. The dataset will be used in the PAGER system to rapidly assess the susceptibility of areas to landsliding following large earthquakes.

  20. Radon measurements for earthquake prediction along the North Anatolian Fault Zone: a progress report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedmann, H.; Aric, K.; Gutdeutsch, R.; King, C.-Y.; Altay, C.; Sav, H.

    1988-01-01

    Radon (222Rn) concentration has been continuously measured since 1983 in groundwater at a spring and in subsurface soil gas at five sites along a 200 km segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone near Bolu, Turkey. The groundwater radon concentration showed a significant increase before the Biga earthquake of magnitude 5.7 on 5 July 1983 at an epicentral distance of 350 km, and a long-term increase between March 1983 and April 1985. The soil-gas radon concentration showed large changes in 1985, apparently not meteorologically induced. The soil-gas and groundwater data at Bolu did not show any obvious correlation. ?? 1988.

  1. Using Fault-Zone Trapped Waves from Teleseismic Earthquakes to Document Deep Structure of the Calico Fault in Mojave Desert

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y. G.; Chen, P.; Lee, E. J.

    2014-12-01

    Fault-zone trapped waves (FZTWs) are observed at a square seismic array consisting of 40 intermediate-period stations deployed adjacent to the Calico Fault (CF) in Mojave Desert, California for teleseismic earthquakes and used to characterize the deep structure of fault damage zone. In the previous study, traveltimes inverse, FZTWs generated by explosions and local earthquakes, and InSAR observations have been used to document the seismic velocity structure of the CF zone, within which velocities are reduced to ~40% in the center of a 1.5-km-wide compliant zone along the fault strike and extending to 5-6 km depth at the array site [Cochran, et al., 2009]. In order to better address the deep portion of the CF beyond the depth coverage of local earthquakes, we use FZTWs recorded at this array atop the CF for teleseismic earthquakes which have great promise for providing unprecedented constrains of the depth extension of fault-zone damage structure because the FZTWs arise from teleseismic waves incident at the fault bottom at deep level. We examined the data from 72 M≥6 teleseismic earthquakes recorded at the Calico array, and identified significant FZTWs with much larger amplitudes and longer wavetrains starting ~5-s after the first-arrivals at stations located within the compliant zone along the CF strike than those registered at farther stations for teleseismic earthquakes occurring at great depths with less surface wave affect. We interpret observed FZTWs being formed by S-waves converted from P waves at the Moho (~30-km depth) and entering the bottom of the CF. The FZTWs from teleseismic earthquakes show consistent longer wavetrains (~12-s) than those (3-8-s) recorded at same stations for local earthquakes at shallow depths, indicating that the CF low-velocity compliant zone likely extends throughout much of the seismogenic zone as a result of the portion of energy expended during rupture in historical earthquakes to drive cracking and yielding of rock and

  2. Mechanical and Statistical Evidence of Human-Caused Earthquakes - A Global Data Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klose, C. D.

    2012-12-01

    The causality of large-scale geoengineering activities and the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes of up to M=8 is discussed and mechanical and statistical evidence is provided. The earthquakes were caused by artificial water reservoir impoundments, underground and open-pit mining, coastal management, hydrocarbon production and fluid injections/extractions. The presented global earthquake catalog has been recently published in the Journal of Seismology and is available for the public at www.cdklose.com. The data show evidence that geomechanical relationships exist with statistical significance between a) seismic moment magnitudes of observed earthquakes, b) anthropogenic mass shifts on the Earth's crust, and c) lateral distances of the earthquake hypocenters to the locations of the mass shifts. Research findings depend on uncertainties, in particular, of source parameter estimations of seismic events before instrumental recoding. First analyses, however, indicate that that small- to medium size earthquakes (M6) tend to be triggered. The rupture propagation of triggered events might be dominated by pre-existing tectonic stress conditions. Besides event specific evidence, large earthquakes such as China's 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake fall into a global pattern and can not be considered as outliers or simply seen as an act of god. Observations also indicate that every second seismic event tends to occur after a decade, while pore pressure diffusion seems to only play a role when injecting fluids deep underground. The chance of an earthquake to nucleate after two or 20 years near an area with a significant mass shift is 25% or 75% respectively. Moreover, causative effects of seismic activities highly depend on the tectonic stress regime in the Earth's crust in which geoengineering takes place.

  3. Predicting Earthquake Occurrence at Subduction-Zone Plate Boundaries Through Advanced Computer Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsu'Ura, M.; Hashimoto, C.; Fukuyama, E.

    2004-12-01

    In general, predicting the occurrence of earthquakes is very difficult, because of the complexity of actual faults and nonlinear interaction between them. From the standpoint of earthquake prediction, however, our target is limited to the large events that completely break down a seismogenic zone. To such large events we may apply the concept of the earthquake cycle. The entire process of earthquake generation cycles generally consists of tectonic loading due to relative plate motion, quasi-static rupture nucleation, dynamic rupture propagation and stop, and restoration of fault strength. This process can be completely described by a coupled nonlinear system, which consists of an elastic/viscoelastic slip-response function that relates fault slip to shear stress change and a fault constitutive law that prescribes change in shear strength with fault slip and contact time. The shear stress and the shear strength are related with each other through boundary conditions on the fault. The driving force of this system is observed relative plate motion. The system to describe the earthquake generation cycle is conceptually quite simple. The complexity in practical modeling mainly comes from complexity in structure of the real earth. Recently, we have developed a physics-based, predictive simulation system for earthquake generation at plate boundaries in and around Japan, where the four plates of Pacific, North American, Philippine Sea and Eurasian are interacting with each other. The simulation system consists of a crust-mantle structure model, a quasi-static tectonic loading model, and a dynamic rupture propagation model. First, we constructed a realistic 3D model of plate interfaces in and around Japan by applying an inversion technique to ISC hypocenter data, and computed viscoelastic slip-response functions for this structure model. Second, we introduced the slip- and time-dependent fault constitutive law with an inherent strength-restoration mechanism as a basic

  4. Technical problems in the construction of a map to zone the earthquake ground-shaking hazard in the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hays, W.W.

    1984-01-01

    Zoning of the earthquake ground-shaking hazard - the division of a region into geographic areas having a similar relative severity or response to ground shaking - has been a goal in the United States for about fifty years. During this period, two types of ground-shaking hazard maps have been constructed. The first type assumes that, except for scaling differences, approximately the same effects that occurred in historic earthquakes will occur in future earthquakes. The second type integrates historic seismicity data and geologic information and uses probabilistic concepts to estimate the characteristics of future ground shaking within specific exposure times. Construction of zoning maps on both a national and regional scale requires innovative research and good data to resolve technical issues about seismicity, the earthquake source, seismic wave attenuation, and local ground response. Because of unresolved issues, implementation in building codes has proceeded fairly slowly. ?? 1984.

  5. 100+ years of instrumental seismology: the example of the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Storchak, Dmitry; Di Giacomo, Domenico

    2015-04-01

    Systematic seismological observations of earthquakes using seismic instruments on a global scale began more than 100 years ago. Since then seismologists made many discoveries about the Earth interior and the physics of the earthquakes, also thanks to major developments in the seismic instrumentation deployed around the world. Besides, since the establishment of the first global networks (Milne and Jesuit networks), seismologists around the world stored and exchanged the results of routine observations (e.g., picking of arrival times, amplitude-period measurements, etc.) or more sophisticated analyses (e.g., moment tensor inversion) in seismological bulletins/catalogues. With a project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), the ISC and the Team of International Experts released a new global earthquake catalogue, the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php), which, differently from previous global seismic catalogues, has the unique feature of covering the entire period of instrumental seismology with locations and magnitude re-assessed using modern approaches for the global earthquakes selected for processing (in the current version approximately 21,000). During the 110 years covered by the ISC-GEM catalogue many seismological developments occurred in terms of instrumentation, seismological practice and knowledge of the physics of the earthquakes. In this contribution we give a brief overview of the major milestones characterizing the last 100+ years of instrumental seismology that were relevant for the production of the ISC-GEM catalogue and the major challenges we faced to obtain a catalogue as homogenous as possible.

  6. Basin-centered asperities in great subduction zone earthquakes: A link between slip, subsidence, and subduction erosion?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wells, R.E.; Blakely, R.J.; Sugiyama, Y.; Scholl, D. W.; Dinterman, P.A.

    2003-01-01

    Published areas of high coseismic slip, or asperities, for 29 of the largest Circum-Pacific megathrust earthquakes are compared to forearc structure revealed by satellite free-air gravity, bathymetry, and seismic profiling. On average, 71% of an earthquake's seismic moment and 79% of its asperity area occur beneath the prominent gravity low outlining the deep-sea terrace; 57% of an earthquake's asperity area, on average, occurs beneath the forearc basins that lie within the deep-sea terrace. In SW Japan, slip in the 1923, 1944, 1946, and 1968 earthquakes was largely centered beneath five forearc basins whose landward edge overlies the 350??C isotherm on the plate boundary, the inferred downdip limit of the locked zone. Basin-centered coseismic slip also occurred along the Aleutian, Mexico, Peru, and Chile subduction zones but was ambiguous for the great 1964 Alaska earthquake. Beneath intrabasin structural highs, seismic slip tends to be lower, possibly due to higher temperatures and fluid pressures. Kilometers of late Cenozoic subsidence and crustal thinning above some of the source zones are indicated by seismic profiling and drilling and are thought to be caused by basal subduction erosion. The deep-sea terraces and basins may evolve not just by growth of the outer arc high but also by interseismic subsidence not recovered during earthquakes. Basin-centered asperities could indicate a link between subsidence, subduction erosion, and seismogenesis. Whatever the cause, forearc basins may be useful indicators of long-term seismic moment release. The source zone for Cascadia's 1700 A.D. earthquake contains five large, basin-centered gravity lows that may indicate potential asperities at depth. The gravity gradient marking the inferred downdip limit to large coseismic slip lies offshore, except in northwestern Washington, where the low extends landward beneath the coast. Transverse gravity highs between the basins suggest that the margin is seismically segmented and

  7. Multi-surface Earthquake Rupture Recorded in Pseudotachylyte Vein Geometries, Norumbega Shear Zone, southern Maine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, C.; Rowe, C. D.; Pollock, S. G.; Swanson, M.; Tarling, M.; Backeberg, N. R.; Coulson, S.; Barshi, N.; Bate, C.; Dascher-Cousineau, K.; Scibek, J.; Harrichhausen, N.; Timofeev, A.; Rakoczy, P.; Nisbet, H.; Castro, A.; Smith, H.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake rupture surfaces are typically treated as single rupture planes. However, the observation of four linked, non-parallel to sub-parallel slip surfaces on a mining induced earthquake in 2004 shows that rupture geometries may be more complicated (Heesakkers et al., 2011). Multiple pseudotachylyte-bearing fault surfaces are exposed within a 1.1 km wide mylonite zone of the Paleozoic Norumbega fault system. The pseudotachylytes are present in two juxtaposed mylonite zones: the Ray Corner mylonite and a mylonite derived from Scarboro Formation metavolcanics. The Ray Corner mylonite crosscuts pelitic schists of the Cape Elizabeth Formation, at upper greenschist-facies conditions (quartz + feldspar + chlorite + muscovite ± titanite ± pyrite). The pseudotachylyte veins formed late in the deformational history, during a period of predominantly brittle dextral offset. The pseudotachylytes are cryptocrystalline and have rounded porphyroclasts of quartz and feldspar. Microstructural observations show evidence for static and dynamic recrystallization overprinting the primary quench textures, suggesting that previous generations of rupture surfaces have been recycled into the mylonitic fabric (Price et al., 2012). Many of the pseudotachylyte veins have a sharp boundary on one side and are poorly defined on the other, providing insight to the propagation direction. This confirms that the paleo-earthquake ruptures occurred at conditions where quartz and feldspar were able to deform plastically, near the base of the seismogenic zone. Using differential GPS, we mapped the geometry of pseudotachylyte fault veins, injection veins, and slip surface intersections. At Ray Corner, there are 7 layer-parallel pseudotachylytes in a 4 m wide zone with linking and subsequent oblique pseudotachylytes. Some intersections between pseudotachylytes are dilational, depending on the intersection angle and relative displacement on the two faults. At these sites, pseudotachylyte melt sourced

  8. Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

    2015-01-01

    The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (<4 m) occurring on the megathrust about every 80 years. One exception is the AD 1730 great earthquake (M 9.0–9.5) and high tsunami (>10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has

  9. Fast Breakdown of Hydrous Minerals may Trigger Intermediate-depth Earthquakes in subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chollet, M.; Daniel, I.; Koga, K. T.; Petitgirard, S.; Morard, G.

    2008-12-01

    Earthquakes are located along a double seismic zone (DSZ) in many subduction zones. Dehydration embrittlement is the mechanism usually proposed to explain these earthquakes, as the pressure-temperature (P,T) location of some hydrous minerals breakdown reactions coincide with intermediate-depth hypocenters. This model assumes that the release of water during dehydration reactions is fast enough to cause hydraulic rupture. Therefore, we have measured the kinetics of dehydration of antigorite, talc and 10Å phase at (P,T) conditions relevant to subduction zones. In situ real-time measurements were performed by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) at high-P and high-T in the Paris- Edinburgh press at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF, ID27). Hydrous minerals were loaded in a transparent, pressure-sealed titanium capsule that ensured a closed thermochemical system. P and T were calculated from the unit-cell parameters of Au and NaCl, using the EoS cross calibration method. During dehydration, (P,T) conditions were kept constant and XRD patterns were acquired every 3 min. The extent of dehydration as a function of time was monitored by the variation in intensity of characteristic diffraction lines of both the hydrous phase and the reaction products. The fit of the isothermal kinetics data to the Avrami's equation and the texture of the reaction products after quench confirm that dehydration rates are limited by diffusion, as expected if a fluid is present. Minimum rates of fluid production during dehydration vary from 10-4 to 8.10-6 m3fluid.m-3rock.s-1. Such rates are definitely faster than the characteristic relaxation rate of the weakest mineral in subduction slabs, calculated as the inverse Maxwell relaxation time of antigorite. Hence, the sudden release of water by dehydration of antigorite, talc and 10Å phase is fast enough to provoke hydrofractures. We also show that rates of fluid release are comparable between antigorite, talc and 10Å phase. Consequently, we

  10. The ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009): Introduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Storchak, D. A.; Di Giacomo, D.; Engdahl, E. R.; Harris, J.; Bondár, I.; Lee, W. H. K.; Bormann, P.; Villaseñor, A.

    2015-02-01

    In this introductory article we give a general description of the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009). We also provide the background for four further articles that describe the effort in collecting and digitizing parametric earthquake bulletin data as well as the methodologies developed to compute homogeneous earthquake parameters. The result of the two and a half year project is a catalogue of approximately 20,000 large earthquakes covering 110 years with hypocentres and uncertainties computed using the same technique and velocity model. We show that the overall homogeneity of the main earthquake parameters in the catalogue was achieved despite changes in instrumentation and routine measurement practices concurrent with developments in instrumental seismology from almost a ground level to its current state. For each earthquake, MW magnitude values and uncertainties were computed either based on available estimates of seismic moment or using new empirical relationships between MW, MS and mb. Further important results of this project include the electronic availability of a considerable volume of seismic wave arrival time and amplitude measurements from early instrumental printed station bulletins. These newly recovered amplitude measurements provided a basis for computation of many previously unavailable MS magnitudes with uncertainties. In this article we describe why such a catalogue is required for a comprehensive assessment of global and regional seismic hazard. We also describe other potential uses of the catalogue in many other fields of Earth Sciences. We discuss the catalogue availability and lay out the plans of further development.